Baron Von Thunderclap for Mid Sussex: The 2017 UK General Election
June 7, 2017 4:06 PM Subscribe
After many leaflets of debatable accuracy, and many parties and 3,303 candidates (post title) of varying likelihood of winning, it's time for a nice cup of tea and another jolly splendid UK election (current map). There's been professional messaging, swearing at schoolchildren (related pitfalls), spaniel smelling, posters, demonstrations (nsfw), polling drama, Moomins and the return of Ed, chips, angry and warmongering and peaceful Brits, fake estate agents, stiff British humour, strong and stable, casual xenophobia and family canvassing. But it's now down to Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn or Nicola Sturgeon or Tim Farron or Mr Fish Finger for UK PM. Elsewhere, the Wessex Regionalists are standing in Devizes, while the Yorkshire Party are standing in 21 seats across t'county...
...and other parties standing in this election include (all defending zero seats):
- The Space Navies (nsfw for swearing, goatse drawing of The Queen), with Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild standing on a platform of wealth over half a million pounds to be surrendered, and moving parliament to Blaydon.
- The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, standing in 12 constituences, with policies including "half the grey squirrels will be painted red to increase the red squirrel population" and "atheism will be given charity status being a non-prophet organization."
- Patria: "We see a bright future for the coal industry and will invest in new mines and methods of production."
- The Church of the Militant Elvis Party, with one candidate. "The Church of The Militant Elvis Party is a semi-religious party which believes that Elvis is still alive and living in an old people’s home on the Lincolnshire coast somewhere between Skegness and Mablethorpe." (related)
- The Pirate Party, whose election manifesto states "We want our libraries to remain a free source of knowledge and information, but also to do so much more in a passive, user friendly way. Our security and anonymity should be protected when using a public machine and we should look to lessen the risk of using public Internet connections."
- Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance, renamed with the same initials, advocating for an evidence based review of current drug laws in the UK.
- The Christian Peoples Alliance, standing in 30 constituencies, who "would give a grant (initially set at £10,000 per couple) to be made available to all couples on the occasion of their first marriage provided that they go for at least five sessions of marital awareness training."
- The Young People's Party, a left-leaning flat-tax libertarian party which on open cast coal mining argues it is "...far cheaper and safer than underground mining, plus you get a free reservoir at the end of it."
- UKIP, which wants schools to change the colour of gold stars, issued for good behaviour, as these are a reminder of the EU flag.
Sadly, the Natural Law Party are deregistered in the UK and no longer stand candidates in UK election. Other defunct UK political parties include Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality, Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog (more), and the Death, Dungeons and Taxes Party (annex France, hang people who litter).
The House of Commons at dissolution
The Conservative and Unionist Party: 330
The Labour Party: 229
The Scottish National Party (SNP): 54
The Liberal Democratic Party: 9
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 8
Independent MPs: 5
Sinn Féin: 4
Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales): 3
The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): 3
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): 2
The Green Party: 1
The speaker seeking re-election: 1
Vacant seats: 1
Total: 650 seats
Meanwhile...
In a small selection of recent events ... Theresa's grudge match against the editor of the Evening Standard continues, while Theresa herself ducked out of a debate, being replaced by a former aristocracy coordinator. On policy, unsurprisingly Big Pharma wants more health funding, while the TaxPayers' Alliance want lower taxes. There's more trouble for Theresa as the expenses scandal from the last election progresses, and fox hunting is not a popular policy, while one UKIP candidate has been suspended and various candidates may or may not have offshore accounts.
Another UKIP candidate goes controversial on Twitter, while another Conservative candidate claimed the typical foodbank user is not ‘languishing in poverty’ but rather has ‘a cashflow problem’. Also, Danny DeVito has been maybe promoting Jeremy, while Tim has played the Bake Off card. Elsewhere, the previous Prime Minister has purchased a fancy shed, and an interview with the leader of the party that often proposes policies then stolen by other parties.
Recent or final polls and predictions from the UK Polling Report, Reuters, the Guardian, the Independent and Lord Ashcroft. The latest bookmaker odds.
On the night
Postal voting has been taking place already, though with problems in Runcorn, Welwyn, Plymouth, Guildford, East Devon, Fylde and other constituencies. On Thursday 8th June voting takes place in polling stations between 7am and 10pm British (Summer) Time. At that 10pm mark (5pm in New York, 2pm in Portland), a big exit poll (BBC/ITV/Sky) is revealed which may give a good indication of the result. The 650 seats do their individual counts, and these are the predicted times and things to look out for:
- The Daily Mirror.
- The Independent.
- The New European.
- The Radio Times.
- The Telegraph.
Previously
- This election.
- The 2016 EU referendum (Brexit).
- The 2015 UK general election.
- The 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
- The 2010 UK general election plus some more.
- The 2005 UK general election.
- The 2001 UK general election plus some more.
Housekeeping!
1. (Some) Americans aren't interested, and ditto Russia, or maybe no-one is interested, but y'all welcome to comment here (crash course) so long as you don't turn it into a load of covfefe about The Orange One (that belongs over here) unless relevant.
2. Yes, there's been very recent dark events in the UK, and many serious and life-changing things are affected by this election, but in Britain we have a centuries-long tradition of satire and comedy, especially when applied to politics and politicians; hence this is not an entirely solemn post.
3. The MetaFilter moderators are people too and this comment by a mod is worth a read if you are considering venting or taking out a bad result through writing. This comment details alternative resources and methods.
Back to Mid Sussex and the election showdown between a grandson of Winston Churchill and The Baron...
...and other parties standing in this election include (all defending zero seats):
- The Space Navies (nsfw for swearing, goatse drawing of The Queen), with Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild standing on a platform of wealth over half a million pounds to be surrendered, and moving parliament to Blaydon.
- The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, standing in 12 constituences, with policies including "half the grey squirrels will be painted red to increase the red squirrel population" and "atheism will be given charity status being a non-prophet organization."
- Patria: "We see a bright future for the coal industry and will invest in new mines and methods of production."
- The Church of the Militant Elvis Party, with one candidate. "The Church of The Militant Elvis Party is a semi-religious party which believes that Elvis is still alive and living in an old people’s home on the Lincolnshire coast somewhere between Skegness and Mablethorpe." (related)
- The Pirate Party, whose election manifesto states "We want our libraries to remain a free source of knowledge and information, but also to do so much more in a passive, user friendly way. Our security and anonymity should be protected when using a public machine and we should look to lessen the risk of using public Internet connections."
- Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance, renamed with the same initials, advocating for an evidence based review of current drug laws in the UK.
- The Christian Peoples Alliance, standing in 30 constituencies, who "would give a grant (initially set at £10,000 per couple) to be made available to all couples on the occasion of their first marriage provided that they go for at least five sessions of marital awareness training."
- The Young People's Party, a left-leaning flat-tax libertarian party which on open cast coal mining argues it is "...far cheaper and safer than underground mining, plus you get a free reservoir at the end of it."
- UKIP, which wants schools to change the colour of gold stars, issued for good behaviour, as these are a reminder of the EU flag.
Sadly, the Natural Law Party are deregistered in the UK and no longer stand candidates in UK election. Other defunct UK political parties include Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality, Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog (more), and the Death, Dungeons and Taxes Party (annex France, hang people who litter).
The House of Commons at dissolution
The Conservative and Unionist Party: 330
The Labour Party: 229
The Scottish National Party (SNP): 54
The Liberal Democratic Party: 9
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 8
Independent MPs: 5
Sinn Féin: 4
Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales): 3
The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): 3
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): 2
The Green Party: 1
The speaker seeking re-election: 1
Vacant seats: 1
Total: 650 seats
Meanwhile...
In a small selection of recent events ... Theresa's grudge match against the editor of the Evening Standard continues, while Theresa herself ducked out of a debate, being replaced by a former aristocracy coordinator. On policy, unsurprisingly Big Pharma wants more health funding, while the TaxPayers' Alliance want lower taxes. There's more trouble for Theresa as the expenses scandal from the last election progresses, and fox hunting is not a popular policy, while one UKIP candidate has been suspended and various candidates may or may not have offshore accounts.
Another UKIP candidate goes controversial on Twitter, while another Conservative candidate claimed the typical foodbank user is not ‘languishing in poverty’ but rather has ‘a cashflow problem’. Also, Danny DeVito has been maybe promoting Jeremy, while Tim has played the Bake Off card. Elsewhere, the previous Prime Minister has purchased a fancy shed, and an interview with the leader of the party that often proposes policies then stolen by other parties.
Recent or final polls and predictions from the UK Polling Report, Reuters, the Guardian, the Independent and Lord Ashcroft. The latest bookmaker odds.
On the night
Postal voting has been taking place already, though with problems in Runcorn, Welwyn, Plymouth, Guildford, East Devon, Fylde and other constituencies. On Thursday 8th June voting takes place in polling stations between 7am and 10pm British (Summer) Time. At that 10pm mark (5pm in New York, 2pm in Portland), a big exit poll (BBC/ITV/Sky) is revealed which may give a good indication of the result. The 650 seats do their individual counts, and these are the predicted times and things to look out for:
- The Daily Mirror.
- The Independent.
- The New European.
- The Radio Times.
- The Telegraph.
Previously
- This election.
- The 2016 EU referendum (Brexit).
- The 2015 UK general election.
- The 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
- The 2010 UK general election plus some more.
- The 2005 UK general election.
- The 2001 UK general election plus some more.
Housekeeping!
1. (Some) Americans aren't interested, and ditto Russia, or maybe no-one is interested, but y'all welcome to comment here (crash course) so long as you don't turn it into a load of covfefe about The Orange One (that belongs over here) unless relevant.
2. Yes, there's been very recent dark events in the UK, and many serious and life-changing things are affected by this election, but in Britain we have a centuries-long tradition of satire and comedy, especially when applied to politics and politicians; hence this is not an entirely solemn post.
3. The MetaFilter moderators are people too and this comment by a mod is worth a read if you are considering venting or taking out a bad result through writing. This comment details alternative resources and methods.
Back to Mid Sussex and the election showdown between a grandson of Winston Churchill and The Baron...
Great post. Shame about the polls.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:25 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:25 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
I've also taken Friday off for the sake of my sanity. Can't help but feel we're all doomed.
posted by knapah at 4:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by knapah at 4:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
ahhh gawd we have to go vote today
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
In response to a "wtf - is that for real?!!" message - yes, the Space Navies website is the real campaign website of a candidate who has paid her £500 and is standing in this election as a legitimate candidate. So much to love about the website, from the way it starts off all cheery and friendly and then ... changes somewhat (the nsfw is there for a reason), and the medals, and the glorious election leaflets.
Paddy Power are currently offering odds of 250/1 for Lisa to win the seat (the poor Green Party candidate is 500/1).
posted by Wordshore at 4:35 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
Paddy Power are currently offering odds of 250/1 for Lisa to win the seat (the poor Green Party candidate is 500/1).
posted by Wordshore at 4:35 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
Great post. Shame about the polls.
Sure but if we take Brexit as a guide, Labour will win an outright majority and Corbyn will then nationalize the Conservative Party and you won't have an election ever again
posted by Automocar at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [4 favorites]
Sure but if we take Brexit as a guide, Labour will win an outright majority and Corbyn will then nationalize the Conservative Party and you won't have an election ever again
posted by Automocar at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [4 favorites]
I just want you to know, good luck, we're all a bunch of raving loonies.
posted by delfin at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by delfin at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [10 favorites]
Well, May has been astonishingly bad in the campaign — I wasn’t impressed by her as prime minister anyway, but the way she crumpled under the pressure has been quite something. And Corbyn has been better than I expected; maybe campaigning is more his comfort zone than actually being leader of the opposition. But in the end it looks like May is going to limp over the line comfortably ahead, and then see how far she can get reinventing the UK’s entire geopolitical stance with nothing but bluster and shitty slogans.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:41 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
refuse to nuke Iran "just for a laugh"
you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing
i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell
posted by burgerrr at 4:44 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing
i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell
posted by burgerrr at 4:44 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
THIS IS WHAT YOU GET IF YOU MOVE AWAY FROM A 2 PARTY SYSTEM
posted by lalochezia at 4:53 PM on June 7, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 4:53 PM on June 7, 2017 [4 favorites]
It's amazing that someone as utterly fucking useless at everything as May is probably going to win. I don't know what happened to my country to make it the land of constant awful failure, but I can't see anything getting any better in the next, well, forever.
/gloom
posted by Artw at 4:54 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
/gloom
posted by Artw at 4:54 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
I predict Arthur Negus will hold Bristols.
posted by stevis23 at 4:55 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by stevis23 at 4:55 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
UKIPS RECENT FLYER .
THEY MAY LIVE.
STRONGANS TABLE.
posted by lalochezia at 4:56 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
STRONGANS TABLE.
posted by lalochezia at 4:56 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is there a clinic that will do those medical comas like in Valley of The Dolls? If I wake up a week from now when everything has settled, it'll be like waking up in the not to distant future.
posted by The Whelk at 5:00 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 5:00 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
Speaking as a mostly lurking American who saw this linked in the infinite scream that is the election/POTUS threads... Wordshore, this is an amazing post. It's made me realize that I have not been paying appropriate attention to the way this horrorshow is playing out in democracies of all stripes across the globe. As in November, I don't think I can watch the live results, but I wish you a better outcome that we had.
posted by slenderloris at 5:04 PM on June 7, 2017 [16 favorites]
posted by slenderloris at 5:04 PM on June 7, 2017 [16 favorites]
I just want to tell you good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by tobascodagama at 5:06 PM on June 7, 2017 [26 favorites]
posted by tobascodagama at 5:06 PM on June 7, 2017 [26 favorites]
refuse to nuke Iran "just for a laugh"
you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing
i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell
Yes apologies Poe's Law and all that - I'm just weakly riffing on the otherwise hilarious #LastMinuteCorbynSmears.
In all seriousness, it's been quite alarming seeing JC get hammered on his opposition to Trident and therefore his assumed "unwillingness to push the button", when his whole deal is "why the fuck don't we just get rid of nuclear weapons full stop?". Let's hope reason prevails, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 5:13 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing
i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell
Yes apologies Poe's Law and all that - I'm just weakly riffing on the otherwise hilarious #LastMinuteCorbynSmears.
In all seriousness, it's been quite alarming seeing JC get hammered on his opposition to Trident and therefore his assumed "unwillingness to push the button", when his whole deal is "why the fuck don't we just get rid of nuclear weapons full stop?". Let's hope reason prevails, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 5:13 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
Reminder that the opinion poll numbers come from models based on voter turnout, in particular, young people not turning out. It's real easy to make those polls utterly, utterly wrong. Do your duty.
posted by Jimbob at 5:26 PM on June 7, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by Jimbob at 5:26 PM on June 7, 2017 [10 favorites]
When someone says she'd rip up human rights laws to pass anti-terror legislation
The guy who's reluctant to support Trident is NOT THE FUCKING PROBLEM
posted by delfin at 5:33 PM on June 7, 2017 [25 favorites]
The guy who's reluctant to support Trident is NOT THE FUCKING PROBLEM
posted by delfin at 5:33 PM on June 7, 2017 [25 favorites]
I'm not taking Friday off work.
I'm taking Thursday off work. I will be out doing my best to get turnout.
I live in one of the most marginal seats in the country, Labour won here in 2015 with 465 votes.
The Greens (2000ish votes in 2015) and UKIP (3000 ish in 2015) have withdrawn.
The Greens are actively campaigning for Labour.
Labour are up in London, Up in Wales.
Maybe it will be enough.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [27 favorites]
I'm taking Thursday off work. I will be out doing my best to get turnout.
I live in one of the most marginal seats in the country, Labour won here in 2015 with 465 votes.
The Greens (2000ish votes in 2015) and UKIP (3000 ish in 2015) have withdrawn.
The Greens are actively campaigning for Labour.
Labour are up in London, Up in Wales.
Maybe it will be enough.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [27 favorites]
"UKIP, which wants schools to change the colour of gold stars, issued for good behaviour, as these are a reminder of the EU flag."
I LOLed. There is nothing so trivial these idiots aren't ON IT.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:42 PM on June 7, 2017 [25 favorites]
I LOLed. There is nothing so trivial these idiots aren't ON IT.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:42 PM on June 7, 2017 [25 favorites]
All my friends who are resident here in the US on visas and green cards have sent in their votes to their home boroughs. One of my friends who lives in Connecticut sent in his vote to his borough in Richmond and hasn't received a reply of acknowledgement. He's very worried about shenanigans, though in true English fashion he hasn't outright said so, though I picked up on it.
Should he be worried? I've heard Richmond is generally a conservative stronghold.
posted by droplet at 5:55 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
Should he be worried? I've heard Richmond is generally a conservative stronghold.
posted by droplet at 5:55 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
Another great post, Wordshore.
FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.
Which, tbh, feels a bit like saying, "Tomorrow it will either pour, or sprinkle, or be partly cloudy."
posted by Chrysostom at 6:01 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.
Which, tbh, feels a bit like saying, "Tomorrow it will either pour, or sprinkle, or be partly cloudy."
posted by Chrysostom at 6:01 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
538 turned so slowly from data analysis to full-on punditry that I didn't even notice!
posted by Yowser at 6:13 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 6:13 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
Wordshore: awarded the Order of Lenin with oakleaf clusters.
UK politics: all the nutritional value and appetizing appeal of a white pudding supper in Wick on a rainy Friday night.
But I shall vote tomorrow as I always vote: for the right people. They will have as win or lose they always have, little effect on the gloomy arc of history.
Am I downhearted? No! As the Norwegian captain said: for thoughts, there is gin.
posted by Devonian at 6:20 PM on June 7, 2017 [13 favorites]
UK politics: all the nutritional value and appetizing appeal of a white pudding supper in Wick on a rainy Friday night.
But I shall vote tomorrow as I always vote: for the right people. They will have as win or lose they always have, little effect on the gloomy arc of history.
Am I downhearted? No! As the Norwegian captain said: for thoughts, there is gin.
posted by Devonian at 6:20 PM on June 7, 2017 [13 favorites]
There have been issues spotted with postal votes.
Definitely worth checking.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:30 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
Definitely worth checking.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:30 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
We're all counting on you, fellow parliamentary voter country!
(Re: Mail voting. It could be worse. You could receive your voting packet the same day it's due physically at a specific address, several hundred kilometres away in the Nation's Capital.
(mumble mumble))
posted by Yowser at 6:54 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
(Re: Mail voting. It could be worse. You could receive your voting packet the same day it's due physically at a specific address, several hundred kilometres away in the Nation's Capital.
(mumble mumble))
posted by Yowser at 6:54 PM on June 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
Well, I called the last election and the referendum correctly months in advance, and when May called this one, I said the Tories would win it, which I suppose in context means an outright majority if not increasing their majority. I really hope I'm wrong.
posted by Dysk at 7:25 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 7:25 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
This UK election is giving me a bit of a psephological boner at the moment. Here's a good primer on it (the meaty psephology comes about a third of the way through).
The most sophisticated predictor I’ve seen is at YouGov, which at present is in hung parliament territory.
The great imponderable is voters in the 18–24 age range. 68 per cent of them are reportedly for Corbyn camp, but the extent of the turnout is a big unknown. If those numbers are high enough, it could well be a tipping point of a huge shift. Here's a decent read on that.
posted by Tasmanian_Kris at 7:27 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
The most sophisticated predictor I’ve seen is at YouGov, which at present is in hung parliament territory.
The great imponderable is voters in the 18–24 age range. 68 per cent of them are reportedly for Corbyn camp, but the extent of the turnout is a big unknown. If those numbers are high enough, it could well be a tipping point of a huge shift. Here's a decent read on that.
posted by Tasmanian_Kris at 7:27 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
Unsure who to vote for? If only there were some sort of sign. Any sign. Anything at all.
posted by ckape at 7:40 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by ckape at 7:40 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
This is so delightful! Thanks, Wordshore, especially for the breakdowns of the very tiny but fascinating parties.
posted by corb at 8:10 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by corb at 8:10 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
I postal voted ages ago and had no ack. I think they would have to actually count your vote in order to acknowledge it so I am not worried personally.
Someone asked Bryan Fuller to urge British Fannibals to vote, and he did, so that's at least nine people likely to turn out there.
posted by tel3path at 8:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
Someone asked Bryan Fuller to urge British Fannibals to vote, and he did, so that's at least nine people likely to turn out there.
posted by tel3path at 8:34 PM on June 7, 2017 [1 favorite]
Wonderful post. Thank you, though I fear my fellow countrymen and woman are heading for the cliff in grand lemming style as only the British can.
The leader of one of the worlds oldest and venerable democracies wants to proudly
"Rip up human rights laws". It makes you want to fucking weep.
posted by adamvasco at 8:48 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
The leader of one of the worlds oldest and venerable democracies wants to proudly
"Rip up human rights laws". It makes you want to fucking weep.
posted by adamvasco at 8:48 PM on June 7, 2017 [9 favorites]
It seems as though a lot of the Conservative's arguments boil down to "We may be punching the electorate in the face, but can you really trust Labour to punch as effectively as us?", to which the media then responds with debates about punching efficiency, fist power and the fortitude needed to punch hard enough.
posted by bystander at 9:19 PM on June 7, 2017 [22 favorites]
posted by bystander at 9:19 PM on June 7, 2017 [22 favorites]
Wordshore, that article talks about a seachange every 30 years but claims it started early with Blair. It did not. Blair was incredibly right wing. Corbyn isn't.
posted by tel3path at 9:26 PM on June 7, 2017
posted by tel3path at 9:26 PM on June 7, 2017
I'm glad that this post gave UKIP a position in line with their actual standing in the current parliament and polling. That happens so rarely in political coverage.
posted by ckape at 10:04 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by ckape at 10:04 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'm glad that this post gave UKIP a position in line with their actual standing in the current parliament and polling. That happens so rarely in political coverage.
Cheers; that was a deliberate thing. I stopped watching programmes like Question Time long ago as they were endlessly a platform for the serial election loser Farage/the boy Nuttall to churn "everything is the fault of the EU/immigrants" over and over. And as for the credibility of Neil Hamilton...
posted by Wordshore at 10:20 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
Cheers; that was a deliberate thing. I stopped watching programmes like Question Time long ago as they were endlessly a platform for the serial election loser Farage/the boy Nuttall to churn "everything is the fault of the EU/immigrants" over and over. And as for the credibility of Neil Hamilton...
posted by Wordshore at 10:20 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
I live in a Labour safe seat, and I've had one single piece of non-Labour election leafleting from Theresa May and her Conservatives (an obvious c+p job the size of a postcard ). The only way I know that there are actual other candidates is because I've been on the Council website. So, no real choice at all, here.
Safe seat or no, I broke through my anxiety barrier to get talking to a few people locally who were chatting about how they've been warned about the closure of the Sure Start centres to let them know that Labour has specifically pledged to keep them open. They don't warrant a mention in the Conservative manifesto.
Good luck everyone, and thanks once again to Wordshore for the post and best wishes to the mods.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:57 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
Safe seat or no, I broke through my anxiety barrier to get talking to a few people locally who were chatting about how they've been warned about the closure of the Sure Start centres to let them know that Labour has specifically pledged to keep them open. They don't warrant a mention in the Conservative manifesto.
Good luck everyone, and thanks once again to Wordshore for the post and best wishes to the mods.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:57 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
Thanks for this post, Wordshore. I've done as much as my mental wellbeing has allowed, and while the preponderance of overt support I've been able to see locally is for the Lib Dem candidate, I think this is on a knife edge, and the most recent 150 years of history favours the Tories in this constituency. I'm desperately, desperately heartbroken for my country, which hasn't hurt itself* this badly since its civil war.
I suspect we'll be back in the polls before too long. If we're very lucky, it'll be before Brexit, to get a mandate for remaining in the single market under some kind of EEA-like deal the EU works out to avoid getting splattered with the debris from the UK's implosion. That's my best case realistic scenario.
What's also horrid is how the Potemkin competence that Theresa May shows is so clearly persuasive for those who are less engaged. And clearly the whole "everything's so bad, you can't trust other people" schtick really seems to work.
I don't know what my future brings. Financially, I can't stay where I am in England, not in a public sector job. And I'm only just back on the right track after a 15 years ago (metaphorical) car-crash which derailed all my plans in my early-mid 20s. I don't want to move again. Especially after an abuser bollocksed me up 2 years ago, too. So, yeah, fuck anyone who votes Tory.
*Of course, it's hurt many many other places, and part of what's causing my heartbreak is the amount of effort I've put into finding the way to love this country while not endorsing its crimes. And the predominant sentiment of the people wrecking the country is a 1980s football thug's "everyone hates us; we don't care".
posted by ambrosen at 10:58 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
I suspect we'll be back in the polls before too long. If we're very lucky, it'll be before Brexit, to get a mandate for remaining in the single market under some kind of EEA-like deal the EU works out to avoid getting splattered with the debris from the UK's implosion. That's my best case realistic scenario.
What's also horrid is how the Potemkin competence that Theresa May shows is so clearly persuasive for those who are less engaged. And clearly the whole "everything's so bad, you can't trust other people" schtick really seems to work.
I don't know what my future brings. Financially, I can't stay where I am in England, not in a public sector job. And I'm only just back on the right track after a 15 years ago (metaphorical) car-crash which derailed all my plans in my early-mid 20s. I don't want to move again. Especially after an abuser bollocksed me up 2 years ago, too. So, yeah, fuck anyone who votes Tory.
*Of course, it's hurt many many other places, and part of what's causing my heartbreak is the amount of effort I've put into finding the way to love this country while not endorsing its crimes. And the predominant sentiment of the people wrecking the country is a 1980s football thug's "everyone hates us; we don't care".
posted by ambrosen at 10:58 PM on June 7, 2017 [7 favorites]
It is 7am and polling stations are now open. Fifteen hours to determine (possibly) the next five years.
posted by Wordshore at 11:01 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 11:01 PM on June 7, 2017 [5 favorites]
And as for the credibility of Neil Hamilton...
In the runup to the 97 election, when Hamilton was knee-deep in the Cash for Questions scandal, my great-uncle lived in Tatton. He was massively unimpressed with Hamilton; he ranted about how he'd always voted Tory but Hamilton was clearly a crook, couldn't be trusted, etc etc etc.
Little while after the 97 election were talking politics and someone asks him what it was like to switch your vote after a long period of party loyalty.
"Oh, no, I voted for Hamilton."
"WHAT? But - but - you hate him! You think he's a crook! He IS a crook!"
"Yes... but I've always voted Tory."
UK politics, ladies and gentlemen.
posted by Catseye at 11:12 PM on June 7, 2017 [17 favorites]
In the runup to the 97 election, when Hamilton was knee-deep in the Cash for Questions scandal, my great-uncle lived in Tatton. He was massively unimpressed with Hamilton; he ranted about how he'd always voted Tory but Hamilton was clearly a crook, couldn't be trusted, etc etc etc.
Little while after the 97 election were talking politics and someone asks him what it was like to switch your vote after a long period of party loyalty.
"Oh, no, I voted for Hamilton."
"WHAT? But - but - you hate him! You think he's a crook! He IS a crook!"
"Yes... but I've always voted Tory."
UK politics, ladies and gentlemen.
posted by Catseye at 11:12 PM on June 7, 2017 [17 favorites]
It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.
posted by pharm at 11:31 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by pharm at 11:31 PM on June 7, 2017 [6 favorites]
With this level of certainty of a Tory victory I assume the rest of you lot are voting eigher Tory or Monster Raving Loony.
posted by tel3path at 11:50 PM on June 7, 2017
posted by tel3path at 11:50 PM on June 7, 2017
This has felt pretty bloody long for being a snap election (yes, I know it's not even remotely as bad as the two year absurdity of American campaigns, but it's still been grating).
posted by Happy Dave at 11:56 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave at 11:56 PM on June 7, 2017 [3 favorites]
I've been living overseas for so long that I'm not allowed to vote anymore, which makes this election a uniquely dispiriting experience.
I'm hoping against hope that sense will prevail and the youth vote will show up to give the Tories the kicking they so richly deserve.
posted by ZipRibbons at 12:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm hoping against hope that sense will prevail and the youth vote will show up to give the Tories the kicking they so richly deserve.
posted by ZipRibbons at 12:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Rest in power to Emily Davidson, killed 104 years ago today campaigning for women's right to vote. (No pressure, 18-24 women...)
posted by Catseye at 12:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 12:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
It’s great to see that PEB from the Natural Law Party again. They truly set a new standard for British democratic nuttiness. I would be fascinated to read a good journalistic long read about what the fuck was going on there.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Another party for the "other parties standing in this election include..." section is the Something New Party.
It was set up by a friend - he's one of their two candidates - but I think it's worth mentioning for their digital-age approach. The manifesto is open for everyone to contribute to - I added Maciej's proposals for behavioural advertising to it.
Anyway, I need to get off to the polling station and place my X.
posted by amcewen at 12:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
It was set up by a friend - he's one of their two candidates - but I think it's worth mentioning for their digital-age approach. The manifesto is open for everyone to contribute to - I added Maciej's proposals for behavioural advertising to it.
Anyway, I need to get off to the polling station and place my X.
posted by amcewen at 12:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
My constituency is probably safe Tory - 2k majority last time - despite languid campaigning by my cat. Across the water is more of a worry, one of the few Labour seats in the south-east but very vulnerable. May was nosing around yesterday at the bowling club.
posted by paduasoy at 1:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by paduasoy at 1:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Stewart Lee on conservative economic theory.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 1:22 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 1:22 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I posted about a million comments with links in the last thread. Don't want to repeat them but the polls, the campaign strategies of which seats they're visiting, the reports of "doorstep sentiment", the bookies odds... they're all pointing to the Tories being ahead to some degree. They could all be wrong. But they might be right.
Even so, I think this scale of a Tory victory makes a huge difference. May's agenda of ultra-hard Brexit, obliterating human rights, changing all voting systems to FPTP, privatising social care etc will be hard or impossible to get through if she doesn't have a huge majority.
On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies. They'll feel absolutely vindicated that offering a positive campaign, significant policy differences and an alternative to grinding austerity are all terrible ideas. Then it's back to the slow death of Pasokification, watching a centre left bereft of positive ideas evaporate votes in all directions as in Greece, France, the Netherlands.
Even if the Tories win, I think the scale of that victory makes a huge difference to the fate of the nation.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
Even so, I think this scale of a Tory victory makes a huge difference. May's agenda of ultra-hard Brexit, obliterating human rights, changing all voting systems to FPTP, privatising social care etc will be hard or impossible to get through if she doesn't have a huge majority.
On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies. They'll feel absolutely vindicated that offering a positive campaign, significant policy differences and an alternative to grinding austerity are all terrible ideas. Then it's back to the slow death of Pasokification, watching a centre left bereft of positive ideas evaporate votes in all directions as in Greece, France, the Netherlands.
Even if the Tories win, I think the scale of that victory makes a huge difference to the fate of the nation.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
Voted. Time for breakfast and then I'll be out on the streets dragging all y'all to the booth.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 1:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 1:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think someone posted this in the last thread, but posting here again because I LOLed:
CAROLINE! THAT WAS THE LAST OF THE ELECTION FUND!posted by EndsOfInvention at 1:33 AM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
Just realised that this will be my two year old's fifth visit to the polling station (one in-utero, but still).
No wonder people are tired of elections!
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
No wonder people are tired of elections!
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
(Re: Mail voting. It could be worse. You could receive your voting packet the same day it's due physically at a specific address, several hundred kilometres away in the Nation's Capital.
British friends of mine living in New Zealand got their postal vote forms today, due physically in the UK by tomorrow. (Luckily they lived in Brixton which is part of a safe Labour seat, but it's still not good).
Can't see past a Tory win here unfortunately. Corbyn looks set to improve a bit on Labour's 2015 result at least, and hopefully there'll be some kind of truce between the leftists and the centrists in the Labour party where they agree that the Tories are the real enemy, and to start and finish their internal debates behind closed doors, and to then come together.
posted by Pink Frost at 1:59 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
British friends of mine living in New Zealand got their postal vote forms today, due physically in the UK by tomorrow. (Luckily they lived in Brixton which is part of a safe Labour seat, but it's still not good).
Can't see past a Tory win here unfortunately. Corbyn looks set to improve a bit on Labour's 2015 result at least, and hopefully there'll be some kind of truce between the leftists and the centrists in the Labour party where they agree that the Tories are the real enemy, and to start and finish their internal debates behind closed doors, and to then come together.
posted by Pink Frost at 1:59 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
OMG IT'S A POLITICAL SHITSHOW POST THAT ISN'T ABOUT THE US I AM SO GRATEFUL THANK YOU UNIVERSE
posted by hippybear at 2:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 2:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
Should he be worried? I've heard Richmond is generally a conservative stronghold.
There are actually two Richmond constituencies. One in Yorkshire where all the wealthy Yorkshire folk like and which is very solidly Conservative. The other in Surrey, and that is currently the only non-Conservative seat in that county. It has a history of being lib-dem, went blue with over-privileged fake liberal Zac Goldsmith in 2010 and again in 2015 and when he quit was taken back by the lib dems in a 2016 by-election. The majority is under 2000, with Labour a very, very distant 3rd, so shenanigans there is potentially significant.
posted by biffa at 2:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
There are actually two Richmond constituencies. One in Yorkshire where all the wealthy Yorkshire folk like and which is very solidly Conservative. The other in Surrey, and that is currently the only non-Conservative seat in that county. It has a history of being lib-dem, went blue with over-privileged fake liberal Zac Goldsmith in 2010 and again in 2015 and when he quit was taken back by the lib dems in a 2016 by-election. The majority is under 2000, with Labour a very, very distant 3rd, so shenanigans there is potentially significant.
posted by biffa at 2:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
My election day selfie so far.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:50 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:50 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
There were no dogs at my polling station this morning but I did see a window cat next door. Last time I was also a proxy voter in Hackney for an overseas friend so I am quite glad that I only had to go to one polling station this time as it was very nerve-wracking trying to get out of Brighton on southern fail to get to the second polling station.
Also, it was double the chance for evil voting hand, which is always my irrational voting fear.
posted by halcyonday at 2:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Also, it was double the chance for evil voting hand, which is always my irrational voting fear.
posted by halcyonday at 2:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
it was very nerve-wracking trying to get out of Brighton on southern fail to get to the second polling station.
Yikes, I'm proxy voting again this year but thankfully for someone also in Brighton Pavilion!
Speaking of Brighton, the Greens stood down in Brighton Kemptown this year to help Labour. Last election the Tories beat Labour by less than 700 votes, and there were 3,000 Green votes - judging by this poll from yesterday it's done the job. Of course Labour didn't reciprocate in Brighton Pavilion 🙄 but I think Caroline Lucas will steamroller that again anyway.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:07 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yikes, I'm proxy voting again this year but thankfully for someone also in Brighton Pavilion!
Speaking of Brighton, the Greens stood down in Brighton Kemptown this year to help Labour. Last election the Tories beat Labour by less than 700 votes, and there were 3,000 Green votes - judging by this poll from yesterday it's done the job. Of course Labour didn't reciprocate in Brighton Pavilion 🙄 but I think Caroline Lucas will steamroller that again anyway.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:07 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I noticed that the Tory candidate for Brighton Pavilion lives in Reading. Everyone else had a registered address in Brighton, even the UKIP candidate.
posted by halcyonday at 3:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by halcyonday at 3:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
10.5 hours till voting closes and the exit poll. Prediction time: prediction is, of course, not necessarily who you hope or want to win.
Who do you think it will be? If with a majority, by how many in a range of ten; if a hung parliament, then which is the largest party?
I'm in pessimist corner and am predicting a Conservative majority of 60 to 70. I hope I am very wrong.
posted by Wordshore at 3:34 AM on June 8, 2017
Who do you think it will be? If with a majority, by how many in a range of ten; if a hung parliament, then which is the largest party?
I'm in pessimist corner and am predicting a Conservative majority of 60 to 70. I hope I am very wrong.
posted by Wordshore at 3:34 AM on June 8, 2017
There were no dogs at my polling station this morning
They're hanging out on twitter these days.
posted by effbot at 3:36 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
They're hanging out on twitter these days.
posted by effbot at 3:36 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Tory victory. The doubt for me is how long they hold off on the leadership challenge. My inner bastard would do it within six months. Their inner bastards, surprisingly to people who know me, have had much more practice.
posted by vbfg at 3:39 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 3:39 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I cannot vote as an EU citizen but in my constituency the race is between Patrick Grady, the SNP MP who held surgeries [town hall meetings] for EU citizens & families post-Brexit despite nobody being able to vote for him and Patrick Harvie, the openly bisexual Scottish Green MSP who has been called "the voice of the irresponsible left-led anti-family anti-christian gay whales against the bomb coalition" by the Daily Mail.
My neighbourhood is such a bubble.
posted by kariebookish at 3:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
My neighbourhood is such a bubble.
posted by kariebookish at 3:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
Their inner bastards,
And their outer bastards. I mean they are like 100% bastard.
Prediction time:
Tory victory. Blarg. No idea how big.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
And their outer bastards. I mean they are like 100% bastard.
Prediction time:
Tory victory. Blarg. No idea how big.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
For the last two elections I have had a pretty good feel for the results prior to election day. Even with the EU referendum and the last couple of US Presidential elections I have called the correct result.
For this election, I have no idea. I fear a Tory victory and I hope for a Labour one, but it is all emotion and no reasoning involved.
Prediction: I really don't know.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:43 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
For this election, I have no idea. I fear a Tory victory and I hope for a Labour one, but it is all emotion and no reasoning involved.
Prediction: I really don't know.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:43 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
One result I'm looking out for is Shipley, where Philip Davies is defending his seat. The (as yet unmentioned in this thread?) Women's Equality Party is fielding their leader Sophie Walker there. This gives some detail as to why.
posted by edd at 3:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by edd at 3:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
My seat is a LibDem/SNP marginal, with the Conservatives and Labour very far behind. So Con and Lab are hardly campaigning at all, and LDs are going hard on a single issue we-hate-the-SNP-more-than-the-others-do stance (which I personally feel is not the most pressing issue facing our future these days but you do you, LibDems).
However. This was once a very very safe Tory seat. It was held by the Conservatives or the Unionists (their predecessors here) from the early 1930s until 1997. Today, they have so poor a chance they're not even bothering with leaflets.
So I will remind myself of that this time round, when it seems like most of England and most of the over-40s are an unshakeable wall of blue. Nothing's permanent. Nothing's forever.
posted by Catseye at 3:59 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
However. This was once a very very safe Tory seat. It was held by the Conservatives or the Unionists (their predecessors here) from the early 1930s until 1997. Today, they have so poor a chance they're not even bothering with leaflets.
So I will remind myself of that this time round, when it seems like most of England and most of the over-40s are an unshakeable wall of blue. Nothing's permanent. Nothing's forever.
posted by Catseye at 3:59 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Good links, edd (dammit, I should have included something about the astonishingly brazen misogynist Davies in the FPP - sorry for missing him out).
posted by Wordshore at 3:59 AM on June 8, 2017
posted by Wordshore at 3:59 AM on June 8, 2017
FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.
They've been doing the "there are X alternatives, and the probabilities for each are therefore 1/X" quite a bit lately; just the other day it was roughly equally likely that the labour polls numbers were too high or too low.
They're also the only ones highlighting that new pollster that popped up yesterday predicting a Labour vote majority (+3%), a pollster using a new method that lets them "poll billions of users in a matter of seconds". In case YouGov's "let's extrapolate from sets too small to have any statistical value, get our name on all the front pages, and then write a bunch of blog posts on why it wasn't actually a poll and why you should ignore it unless it turns out to be right" approach wasn't weird enough.
posted by effbot at 4:02 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
They've been doing the "there are X alternatives, and the probabilities for each are therefore 1/X" quite a bit lately; just the other day it was roughly equally likely that the labour polls numbers were too high or too low.
They're also the only ones highlighting that new pollster that popped up yesterday predicting a Labour vote majority (+3%), a pollster using a new method that lets them "poll billions of users in a matter of seconds". In case YouGov's "let's extrapolate from sets too small to have any statistical value, get our name on all the front pages, and then write a bunch of blog posts on why it wasn't actually a poll and why you should ignore it unless it turns out to be right" approach wasn't weird enough.
posted by effbot at 4:02 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
pharm: It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.
Just about the case for me this morning where the local MP was a Labour Brexiteer.
posted by toamouse at 4:06 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Just about the case for me this morning where the local MP was a Labour Brexiteer.
posted by toamouse at 4:06 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
There are a load of first time volunteers out today (me included).
The neighbouring constituencies are mainly lib dem / Tory battlegrounds so there are quite a few volunteers who've voted tactically and then come here to campaign.
I really hope that pollsters have underestimated the tactical vote and also the enthusiasm.
I also hope that even if the Tories win we can retain that enthusiasm.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:07 AM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
The neighbouring constituencies are mainly lib dem / Tory battlegrounds so there are quite a few volunteers who've voted tactically and then come here to campaign.
I really hope that pollsters have underestimated the tactical vote and also the enthusiasm.
I also hope that even if the Tories win we can retain that enthusiasm.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:07 AM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
I also have no feel for this. I think turnout is looking good, and I think that will hurt the Tories, but I can't say clearer than ±20 either side of an absolute majority for them. I presume there'll be a grand anti-Tory coalition if it is a hung parliament, but still worry about the Lib Dems going into coalition again.
posted by ambrosen at 4:09 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 4:09 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
pharm: It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.
It works well for the powers that be. So much so that it is a Conservative manifesto commitment (and thus not blockable by the Lords) to replace all voting systems for local councils with FPTP.
The Tories will not be happy until they're the UK's equivalent of Singapore's People's Action Party; relieved of the undignified pantomime of having to angle for votes and free to rule as it is their place to do. I suspect that soon we may get such a settlement.
posted by acb at 4:09 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
It works well for the powers that be. So much so that it is a Conservative manifesto commitment (and thus not blockable by the Lords) to replace all voting systems for local councils with FPTP.
The Tories will not be happy until they're the UK's equivalent of Singapore's People's Action Party; relieved of the undignified pantomime of having to angle for votes and free to rule as it is their place to do. I suspect that soon we may get such a settlement.
posted by acb at 4:09 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
My prediction is that Dimbleby will crush all hope at around 10.05 this evening.
posted by biffa at 4:11 AM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by biffa at 4:11 AM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Every time someone cheers on the Youth Vote as the Saviour of the left, I remember poor McGovern's campaign.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:11 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:11 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Also - this is a useful list of expected declaration times if you want to keep an eye out for any particular constituency result.
posted by edd at 4:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by edd at 4:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I presume there'll be a grand anti-Tory coalition if it is a hung parliament, but still worry about the Lib Dems going into coalition again.
When the Lib Dems went into coalition with the Tories, they were headed by Cameron, a charming Blairoid centrist with a knack for flattery and rapport. Now, the Tories are headed by a brittle authoritarian who melts down like a broken robot when things aren't tightly controlled and does photo opportunities in sealed warehouses full of volunteers. I can't see her being as good at persuasion in a situation where she doesn't have force to bring to bear.
It'll be like the Gillard minority government in Australia a few terms ago: hung parliament, and a bunch of independents (mostly centrist, though some ornery oddballs) had to decide between a centrist Labor leader (Julia Gillard) and a pugnacious alpha-male of the hard-right (Tony Abbott). They chose Gillard, presumably because Abbott's alpha-dominance displays (shirtfronting, biting into raw onions, and such) failed to persuade. Of course, what happened later was that Gillard was under withering fire from the right-wing press throughout her term, and Abbott ended up getting the job after the next election.
posted by acb at 4:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
When the Lib Dems went into coalition with the Tories, they were headed by Cameron, a charming Blairoid centrist with a knack for flattery and rapport. Now, the Tories are headed by a brittle authoritarian who melts down like a broken robot when things aren't tightly controlled and does photo opportunities in sealed warehouses full of volunteers. I can't see her being as good at persuasion in a situation where she doesn't have force to bring to bear.
It'll be like the Gillard minority government in Australia a few terms ago: hung parliament, and a bunch of independents (mostly centrist, though some ornery oddballs) had to decide between a centrist Labor leader (Julia Gillard) and a pugnacious alpha-male of the hard-right (Tony Abbott). They chose Gillard, presumably because Abbott's alpha-dominance displays (shirtfronting, biting into raw onions, and such) failed to persuade. Of course, what happened later was that Gillard was under withering fire from the right-wing press throughout her term, and Abbott ended up getting the job after the next election.
posted by acb at 4:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think technically it's merely convention that the lords don't block manifesto promises.
Not a solid rule. Though since our Constitution is all based on conventions and traditions and winks and handshakes and so on it's hard to say what might happen if a government tried to pass seriously egregious policies.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not a solid rule. Though since our Constitution is all based on conventions and traditions and winks and handshakes and so on it's hard to say what might happen if a government tried to pass seriously egregious policies.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
a pollster using a new method that lets them "poll billions of users in a matter of seconds"
Total number of registered voters in the UK : ~0.046 billion
🤔
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Total number of registered voters in the UK : ~0.046 billion
🤔
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm about to brave the rain and go out and vote in my very first general election (my first vote in the UK was for West Midlands mayor and that... didn't go so well). As a newly-minted citizen, I was so excited to see the kinds of leaflets I would get through my door. My constituency (Coventry South) is typically considered safe Labour but data from the Brexit voting is making everyone nervous. So there are plenty of positive Labour leaflets, being handed out by loads of volunteers, many of whom have taken time off work to campaign.
In typical conservative fashion, both the Tories and UKIP decided on a market solution instead and hired companies to stuff the leaflets in doors. Only when I say "companies" I really should have made that noun singular, because it seems like they hired the same one. And to be efficient, leafleting companies sometimes stuff one into another, so you'll open a Chinese takeaway leaflet and see an advert for gutter cleaning. This resulted in the Tory leaflet that came through my door. When I opened it, the glossy A5 inside was... UKIP. Seemed accurate enough.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
In typical conservative fashion, both the Tories and UKIP decided on a market solution instead and hired companies to stuff the leaflets in doors. Only when I say "companies" I really should have made that noun singular, because it seems like they hired the same one. And to be efficient, leafleting companies sometimes stuff one into another, so you'll open a Chinese takeaway leaflet and see an advert for gutter cleaning. This resulted in the Tory leaflet that came through my door. When I opened it, the glossy A5 inside was... UKIP. Seemed accurate enough.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
Youth turnout rates are bothering me a lot these days. They started falling fast in the 90s and they've barely climbed back up since. And it's not just that people are less likely to vote when they're younger but become more likely as they age - every generation's 18-24 year olds voted more than the current one.
This is particularly concerning these days, when intergenerational inequality is increasing. Those born in the 40s and 50s do well, those born in the 80s and 90s... not so much. And again that's not just people gaining wealth as they age - that's young generations facing worse prospects than their parents.
And yet the old vote, the young don't, and so parties court the over-50s because they'll always turn out. We'll protect the continuing increasing value of your houses (when more wealth is tied up in housing, and more young people are shut out of the market). We'll keep the triple lock on your pensions (although your children and grandchildren who are paying for your pensions now probably won't even get a state pension of their own in the future).
So it's good to see efforts to get the younger vote out, although I still feel like we're not looking at this issue deeply enough if it's still patronising lectures about Voting Is Important. Why are they staying away in such numbers? Housing inequality (renters always less likely to vote, young increasingly likely to rent, politicians reluctant to fix the housing market and risk pissing off the baby boomers)? Total disillusionment?
I don't know what the answer is but I think we need to look at it as a big and important societal disenfranchisement issue. All this "just get off Snapchat and vote, kids!" stuff we always see around election time feels increasingly like the progressive version of "you'd all have houses by now if you stopped buying avocado toast."
posted by Catseye at 4:40 AM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
This is particularly concerning these days, when intergenerational inequality is increasing. Those born in the 40s and 50s do well, those born in the 80s and 90s... not so much. And again that's not just people gaining wealth as they age - that's young generations facing worse prospects than their parents.
And yet the old vote, the young don't, and so parties court the over-50s because they'll always turn out. We'll protect the continuing increasing value of your houses (when more wealth is tied up in housing, and more young people are shut out of the market). We'll keep the triple lock on your pensions (although your children and grandchildren who are paying for your pensions now probably won't even get a state pension of their own in the future).
So it's good to see efforts to get the younger vote out, although I still feel like we're not looking at this issue deeply enough if it's still patronising lectures about Voting Is Important. Why are they staying away in such numbers? Housing inequality (renters always less likely to vote, young increasingly likely to rent, politicians reluctant to fix the housing market and risk pissing off the baby boomers)? Total disillusionment?
I don't know what the answer is but I think we need to look at it as a big and important societal disenfranchisement issue. All this "just get off Snapchat and vote, kids!" stuff we always see around election time feels increasingly like the progressive version of "you'd all have houses by now if you stopped buying avocado toast."
posted by Catseye at 4:40 AM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
A possibly hopeful correlation: the youth vote collapsed as labour turned rightwards. Perhaps it's turn back to the left is what young voters needed?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Just off to vote now. I'm actually in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, and he always gets in by a huge majority, so I usually vote Green, but this time I won't. He's been our MP for decades, and does a very good job indeed. I've had several conversations with random people here who have stories of how helpful he has been when they've taken problems to him, and many of them aren't even Labour voters. He's been a spectacularly good constituency MP, and very principled indeed, which is rare. Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).
Realistically, the best we can probably hope for is a drastic reduction in the Conservative majority, and a bloody nose for May. As with every election, I'm hoping to avoid election coverage until tomorrow, but will probably stay up all night, drinking gin and cursing.
Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.
posted by Fuchsoid at 4:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Realistically, the best we can probably hope for is a drastic reduction in the Conservative majority, and a bloody nose for May. As with every election, I'm hoping to avoid election coverage until tomorrow, but will probably stay up all night, drinking gin and cursing.
Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.
posted by Fuchsoid at 4:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
So it's good to see efforts to get the younger vote out, although I still feel like we're not looking at this issue deeply enough if it's still patronising lectures about Voting Is Important. Why are they staying away in such numbers? Housing inequality (renters always less likely to vote, young increasingly likely to rent, politicians reluctant to fix the housing market and risk pissing off the baby boomers)? Total disillusionment?
I know two young voters (well, younger than me anyway; in the 20-30 bracket) who aren't voting because they're on holiday (separately) and missed the proxy/postal vote deadline. At least one of them would definitely have voted Labour otherwise. I'm not sure if they booked their holiday after the deadline or if they're just idiots. But there's one small bit of data.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:52 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I know two young voters (well, younger than me anyway; in the 20-30 bracket) who aren't voting because they're on holiday (separately) and missed the proxy/postal vote deadline. At least one of them would definitely have voted Labour otherwise. I'm not sure if they booked their holiday after the deadline or if they're just idiots. But there's one small bit of data.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:52 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
And yet the old vote, the young don't, and so parties court the over-50s because they'll always turn out. We'll protect the continuing increasing value of your houses (when more wealth is tied up in housing, and more young people are shut out of the market). We'll keep the triple lock on your pensions (although your children and grandchildren who are paying for your pensions now probably won't even get a state pension of their own in the future).
You may have answered the question you pose later, here. Why should young people vote if both parties are only interested in providing for homeowners and pensioners? If Labour and the Tories are competing over who can best protect house prices and upper middle incomes, what's in it for the young, underemployed renter?
posted by Dysk at 4:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
You may have answered the question you pose later, here. Why should young people vote if both parties are only interested in providing for homeowners and pensioners? If Labour and the Tories are competing over who can best protect house prices and upper middle incomes, what's in it for the young, underemployed renter?
posted by Dysk at 4:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).
Amber Rudd. Johnson is Foreign Sec., as difficult to believe as that is.
posted by biffa at 4:56 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Amber Rudd. Johnson is Foreign Sec., as difficult to believe as that is.
posted by biffa at 4:56 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
If Labour and the Tories are competing over who can best protect house prices and upper middle incomes, what's in it for the young, underemployed renter?
No 9k fee to go to university? An NHS that doesn't charge on the door? A meaningful policy on climate change? A better chance of keeping some of the basic benefits of European partnership? Better protection of Labour rights? A government that doesn't think zero hours contracts are great for flexibility? A government which would prefer disabled people not to kill themselves rather than claim benefit?
posted by biffa at 5:01 AM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
No 9k fee to go to university? An NHS that doesn't charge on the door? A meaningful policy on climate change? A better chance of keeping some of the basic benefits of European partnership? Better protection of Labour rights? A government that doesn't think zero hours contracts are great for flexibility? A government which would prefer disabled people not to kill themselves rather than claim benefit?
posted by biffa at 5:01 AM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
God damn, the right-wing press are gonna right-wing press, but the incessant carping on Corbyn from the Guardian has just exhausted me these last years. Top ten most read articles this morning had "Press gang up on Jeremy Corbyn in election day coverage" in the upper half, and in the lower half, "I can’t believe in May or Corbyn, but the ballot is sacred", which just about summed up the whole thing. Urgh.
posted by ominous_paws at 5:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by ominous_paws at 5:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yeah, this election is a little different to the last few. We were talking general electoral trends there, I thought, not this election in particular.
posted by Dysk at 5:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 5:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.
He seems to be a bit of an asshole, though.
posted by effbot at 5:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
He seems to be a bit of an asshole, though.
posted by effbot at 5:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Because at the last go round, I believe what Labour had to offer was the Edstone and mugs emblazoned with anti-immigrant policy promises.
posted by Dysk at 5:05 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 5:05 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
>FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.
They've been doing the "there are X alternatives, and the probabilities for each are therefore 1/X" quite a bit latel
But there are more than those three possibilities, in principle. "Narrow Labor victory" and "Labor landslide" are not on that list, for instance (and ditto with the other parties.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 5:14 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.
Don't get your hopes up, he's practically a tory himself. Anti-choice, anti-poor, spoke vociferously against marriage equality but happy to wear the rainbow flag, very quick to dive into UK-style welfare shaming politics. Contrast the international headlines with the opinions of LGBT folks living in Ireland, which are a lot more negative.
I'm in a solidly labour island surrounded by tories and even now the odd (old, tatty) UKIP banner. If the tories win by anything other than a landslide, it'll put the lie to 'strong and stable'. Corbyn's been performing very well and May's looked like a joke. I suspect a leadership challenge to May in the future.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 5:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Don't get your hopes up, he's practically a tory himself. Anti-choice, anti-poor, spoke vociferously against marriage equality but happy to wear the rainbow flag, very quick to dive into UK-style welfare shaming politics. Contrast the international headlines with the opinions of LGBT folks living in Ireland, which are a lot more negative.
I'm in a solidly labour island surrounded by tories and even now the odd (old, tatty) UKIP banner. If the tories win by anything other than a landslide, it'll put the lie to 'strong and stable'. Corbyn's been performing very well and May's looked like a joke. I suspect a leadership challenge to May in the future.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 5:15 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Just off to vote now. I'm actually in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, and he always gets in by a huge majority, so I usually vote Green, but this time I won't. He's been our MP for decades, and does a very good job indeed. I've had several conversations with random people here who have stories of how helpful he has been when they've taken problems to him, and many of them aren't even Labour voters. He's been a spectacularly good constituency MP, and very principled indeed, which is rare. Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).
I'm in Islington North. I've voted for him in the past, but am voting Green now. Here is my reasoning:
My reasoning is: of the two potential PMs (and, let's face it, the Lib Dems don't stand a chance in this election, let alone the Greens), I want Corbyn; it's a qualitative distinction, not a quantitative. However, as a voter in Islington North, my sole lever of influence is to vote for him or for an opposing candidate. Corbyn will sweep Islington North, almost certainly by a strong majority; the others aren't putting in a huge effort in campaining (the Tories seem to have given up altogether on this seat, and the Lib Dems sent a few generic leaflets). So, my choice is: am I counted in the incumbent's majority, or in a dissenting minority. And given Labour's capitulation to Brexit, a catastrophic, isolationist policy, dissent is more important than ever.
I was previously considering voting Lib Dems, on the assumption that this election would be a Brexit referendum, and that in the liberal, cosmopolitan Islington, the Lib Dems could muster a pro-Remain majority to claim the scalp of one of the pro-Brexit parties' leaders, sending shockwaves through the system and forcing a reappraisal. This turned out not to be the case; the election became about other issues (the Tories claiming a sweeping mandate to remake the country in their own mean-spirited, authoritarian image, and Labour offering a genuine alternative with a chance to get in), and the polls tightened, meaning that Labour wouldn't be wiped out as they were expected to be. Nonetheless, the levers of control for an Islington North voter remain what they are. Given that the Green Party represent a positive and forward-looking direction more than the Lib Dems (who are basically a hedge between the other two parties; socially liberal neoliberals, as it were), they would be my dissenting vote.
I can imagine a chorus of incredulous Labour supporters exasperated that, given the chance to put a X by Jeremy Corbyn's name, I should decline. I reject that model, as that's not how voting works. Voting isn't about cheering harder for your team, or demonstrating your commitment or idealism; that way lies the Trump presidency by way of Jill Stein. In an election, one has a minuscule amount of influence mapped entirely to one electorate. Assuming that one wants to use one's vote to make a difference, rather than a statement about the rightness of one's intentions, if it's a non-safe seat, and it's first-past-the-post, one should vote for the least-worst candidate that's likely to be in the top two, holding one's nose if necessary. In a safe seat with no prospect of wild swings against the incumbent, one's vote has little value in deciding the outcome, and its value is mostly in the case that, at some point, a journalist or pundit may look at the voting breakdown and deduce dissatisfaction with some area of policy or desire for a new agenda from that.
posted by acb at 5:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
I'm in Islington North. I've voted for him in the past, but am voting Green now. Here is my reasoning:
My reasoning is: of the two potential PMs (and, let's face it, the Lib Dems don't stand a chance in this election, let alone the Greens), I want Corbyn; it's a qualitative distinction, not a quantitative. However, as a voter in Islington North, my sole lever of influence is to vote for him or for an opposing candidate. Corbyn will sweep Islington North, almost certainly by a strong majority; the others aren't putting in a huge effort in campaining (the Tories seem to have given up altogether on this seat, and the Lib Dems sent a few generic leaflets). So, my choice is: am I counted in the incumbent's majority, or in a dissenting minority. And given Labour's capitulation to Brexit, a catastrophic, isolationist policy, dissent is more important than ever.
I was previously considering voting Lib Dems, on the assumption that this election would be a Brexit referendum, and that in the liberal, cosmopolitan Islington, the Lib Dems could muster a pro-Remain majority to claim the scalp of one of the pro-Brexit parties' leaders, sending shockwaves through the system and forcing a reappraisal. This turned out not to be the case; the election became about other issues (the Tories claiming a sweeping mandate to remake the country in their own mean-spirited, authoritarian image, and Labour offering a genuine alternative with a chance to get in), and the polls tightened, meaning that Labour wouldn't be wiped out as they were expected to be. Nonetheless, the levers of control for an Islington North voter remain what they are. Given that the Green Party represent a positive and forward-looking direction more than the Lib Dems (who are basically a hedge between the other two parties; socially liberal neoliberals, as it were), they would be my dissenting vote.
I can imagine a chorus of incredulous Labour supporters exasperated that, given the chance to put a X by Jeremy Corbyn's name, I should decline. I reject that model, as that's not how voting works. Voting isn't about cheering harder for your team, or demonstrating your commitment or idealism; that way lies the Trump presidency by way of Jill Stein. In an election, one has a minuscule amount of influence mapped entirely to one electorate. Assuming that one wants to use one's vote to make a difference, rather than a statement about the rightness of one's intentions, if it's a non-safe seat, and it's first-past-the-post, one should vote for the least-worst candidate that's likely to be in the top two, holding one's nose if necessary. In a safe seat with no prospect of wild swings against the incumbent, one's vote has little value in deciding the outcome, and its value is mostly in the case that, at some point, a journalist or pundit may look at the voting breakdown and deduce dissatisfaction with some area of policy or desire for a new agenda from that.
posted by acb at 5:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Because at the last go round, I believe what Labour had to offer was the Edstone and mugs emblazoned with anti-immigrant policy promises.
Good news, they picked a new leader after that and he seems less of a dickhead. He's not perfect and his party is divided against itself but its better than the alternative. I'm only voting Labour as they look to have the best chance of unseating the evil Tory fuck here. Until I saw the last constituency projection I would have voted Lib Dem. I'm actually a member of the Green Party. This is an election for nose holding and hoping to do anything to slow the shit avalanche.
posted by biffa at 5:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Good news, they picked a new leader after that and he seems less of a dickhead. He's not perfect and his party is divided against itself but its better than the alternative. I'm only voting Labour as they look to have the best chance of unseating the evil Tory fuck here. Until I saw the last constituency projection I would have voted Lib Dem. I'm actually a member of the Green Party. This is an election for nose holding and hoping to do anything to slow the shit avalanche.
posted by biffa at 5:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Why should young people vote if both parties are only interested in providing for homeowners and pensioners?
And yet they'd switch to schmoozing underemployed renters in a heartbeat, if they voted more than their grandparents.
My (entirely guesswork) theory: we have a societal disenfranchisement issue driven by a general feeling that intergenerational inequality isn't really a problem here. Partly from the people who think the kids would be fine if they just stopped going to Starbucks, of course. But bigger - because the kind of political dialogue we have now doesn't even see the concerns of younger generations as real issues. Not just that the politicians side with the older generations, but that there's no space for even having a discussion with sides in the first place.
E.g. - housing. Massive problem. Nobody's willing to tackle it. But more than that, nobody's willing to even present it as a problem that feasibly can be tackled. There's just this overwhelming sense of "oh, it's a shame for young people that house prices shot up, but house prices do that all by themselves and there's nothing we can do about it now apart from mop up a bit of the damage." Or: work. Wasn't it nice when we had full employment and jobs for life, etc, or wasn't it nice when people had a proper work ethic, choose whichever appeals - but there's no space for e.g. "we once built a welfare system that protected people through the employment system of the mid-20th century, and we can build a welfare system that protects people now work has changed."
I know Labour and to a lesser extent the other left-of-centres are trying to tackle bits of this, but when they go anywhere near broadening the debate around the problem, everyone dismisses it as totally unrealistic. And if you're say 19 and you're eligible to vote for the first time, how must that come across? Not only "no political party is willing to tackle the problems that face you" but worse - "nobody in the political system thinks you and your problems are worth serious debate anyway."
Corbyn seems to have tapped into some of that disenfranchised feeling but it's pretty well embedded by now. I don't think this is easy to fix. And I don't think many people even want it fixing.
posted by Catseye at 5:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
And yet they'd switch to schmoozing underemployed renters in a heartbeat, if they voted more than their grandparents.
My (entirely guesswork) theory: we have a societal disenfranchisement issue driven by a general feeling that intergenerational inequality isn't really a problem here. Partly from the people who think the kids would be fine if they just stopped going to Starbucks, of course. But bigger - because the kind of political dialogue we have now doesn't even see the concerns of younger generations as real issues. Not just that the politicians side with the older generations, but that there's no space for even having a discussion with sides in the first place.
E.g. - housing. Massive problem. Nobody's willing to tackle it. But more than that, nobody's willing to even present it as a problem that feasibly can be tackled. There's just this overwhelming sense of "oh, it's a shame for young people that house prices shot up, but house prices do that all by themselves and there's nothing we can do about it now apart from mop up a bit of the damage." Or: work. Wasn't it nice when we had full employment and jobs for life, etc, or wasn't it nice when people had a proper work ethic, choose whichever appeals - but there's no space for e.g. "we once built a welfare system that protected people through the employment system of the mid-20th century, and we can build a welfare system that protects people now work has changed."
I know Labour and to a lesser extent the other left-of-centres are trying to tackle bits of this, but when they go anywhere near broadening the debate around the problem, everyone dismisses it as totally unrealistic. And if you're say 19 and you're eligible to vote for the first time, how must that come across? Not only "no political party is willing to tackle the problems that face you" but worse - "nobody in the political system thinks you and your problems are worth serious debate anyway."
Corbyn seems to have tapped into some of that disenfranchised feeling but it's pretty well embedded by now. I don't think this is easy to fix. And I don't think many people even want it fixing.
posted by Catseye at 5:20 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Voted Lib Dem earlier, although I'm in Philip Hammond's 22k majority Tory constituency so it will make fuck all difference. I'm going to head up to Richmond Park after work to try and help keep that seat out of Zac Goldsmith's hands.
If I was in Maidenhead, I'd vote for Lord Buckethead (strong, not entirely stable, leadership). He's a bit of a veteran, having stood in 1987 against Thatcher and 1992 against Major. He took part in a local hustings on local jobs, and is on Twitter.
I'm fucking terrified for the exit poll.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
If I was in Maidenhead, I'd vote for Lord Buckethead (strong, not entirely stable, leadership). He's a bit of a veteran, having stood in 1987 against Thatcher and 1992 against Major. He took part in a local hustings on local jobs, and is on Twitter.
I'm fucking terrified for the exit poll.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
In case anyone needs to catch up: The 2017 general election explained for non-Brits (guardian video)
posted by effbot at 5:27 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by effbot at 5:27 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I have a Labour MP who voted against article 50 and is by all accounts a good constituency MP. And the Conservatives came second last time. But the Lib-Dem candidate is a friend of mine, and I’m sure she would make an excellent MP.
So I will be voting Lib-Dem, but I hate the fact that our stupid voting system means I can’t give my friend my vote with the enthusiasm she deserves.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
So I will be voting Lib-Dem, but I hate the fact that our stupid voting system means I can’t give my friend my vote with the enthusiasm she deserves.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Good news, they picked a new leader after that and he seems less of a dickhead
I am aware. Again, we were talking about youth turnout trends, which until at least tonight will necessarily largely be focused on previous elections.
posted by Dysk at 5:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I am aware. Again, we were talking about youth turnout trends, which until at least tonight will necessarily largely be focused on previous elections.
posted by Dysk at 5:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Lib Dems cause violence again - media physically fight to get shot of Tim Farron leaving the polling station.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:40 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 5:40 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Lib Dems cause violence again - media physically fight to get shot of Tim Farron leaving the polling station.
That's the most attention that anyone's paid to Farron this election.
posted by Talez at 5:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
That's the most attention that anyone's paid to Farron this election.
posted by Talez at 5:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Apart from suggesting people go get a brew.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:56 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 5:56 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Urgh Im so stressed that I actually shared my toddler's nap with him and there are still eight hours of pure waiting to go. But it's OK because I nearly dressed him in a blue top but at the last minute I changed it and now the toddler's top is deepest red.
Which is a long way of giving my
Prediction: which is sorry, but it's going to be an increased Tory majority, and a very very sore head tomorrow.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:00 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Which is a long way of giving my
Prediction: which is sorry, but it's going to be an increased Tory majority, and a very very sore head tomorrow.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:00 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm in Southwark, where I voted for Neil Coyle (Lab) last time, but for a bunch of reasons (including insane minutiae things to do with property development) I voted for Simon Hughes (LibDem). The first person who asks whether I voted for Jeremy gets a mouthful, though. I'm really getting tired of the presidential bullshit.
What I expect is a Tory majority reduced enough from their initial projections to take the shine of Theresa (although her woeful campaigning has done that enough already). What I'd like is for them to lose enough seats that she and they are humiliated even if still in power. At the moment I'm just seeing all this as a preamble to the next PM, after the traditional flurry of knife-wielding in the shadows, who is going to be an astonishing disaster whoever it is. Terrifyingly, the most likely candidate seems to me to be Ian Duncan Smith, who has been carved from pure condensed evil. Already, the only sensible reaction to political coverage on the TV is to turn the volume down and play Take A Bow by Muse on a loop. I don't even especially like Muse, but that's my theme song for politics.
(Also works for Trump.)
That said there is no outcome that will not, in the long run, be catastrophic, and I don't think there's such a thing as better or worse catastrophe.
posted by Grangousier at 6:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
What I expect is a Tory majority reduced enough from their initial projections to take the shine of Theresa (although her woeful campaigning has done that enough already). What I'd like is for them to lose enough seats that she and they are humiliated even if still in power. At the moment I'm just seeing all this as a preamble to the next PM, after the traditional flurry of knife-wielding in the shadows, who is going to be an astonishing disaster whoever it is. Terrifyingly, the most likely candidate seems to me to be Ian Duncan Smith, who has been carved from pure condensed evil. Already, the only sensible reaction to political coverage on the TV is to turn the volume down and play Take A Bow by Muse on a loop. I don't even especially like Muse, but that's my theme song for politics.
(Also works for Trump.)
That said there is no outcome that will not, in the long run, be catastrophic, and I don't think there's such a thing as better or worse catastrophe.
posted by Grangousier at 6:03 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I'm in Southwark too, and voted for Coyle on my way to work this morning. I'm expecting Simon Hughes, though, to reclaim his seat: he's very popular around these parts, has a lot of history in the area, and Coyle hasn't exactly covered himself in glory as an MP. I rationalise my vote for him on the basis that he at least had the guts to defy the Party whip and vote against the triggering of Article 50, which I can at least respect.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I was in my local polling station at 7:30, at the local rugby club, where the two clerks hadn't still quite finished setting up shop. I was the only punter there at the time. Of the six candidates in Newport East, where Labour are defending a 4000+ majority, only one isn't affiliated with any of the recognised parties: a 22-year-old politics student who's running as an independent & standing for peace, love, unity & a soft Brexit.
If I were to bet on the outcome, it would be a small amount on Mrs. May winning with an increased majority: a wager I'd be delighted to lose.
posted by misteraitch at 6:28 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
If I were to bet on the outcome, it would be a small amount on Mrs. May winning with an increased majority: a wager I'd be delighted to lose.
posted by misteraitch at 6:28 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
My hope is that we see lost seats for the Tories, which would be enough to cripple 'I need to increase my strong and stable mandate' May.
My total dream would be them losing an outright majority.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
My total dream would be them losing an outright majority.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:30 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Just throwing this in (sorry for the Torygraph link but it's a nice article) - weirdest UK polling stations
posted by KateViolet at 6:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by KateViolet at 6:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Anyway, now that I've been forced out of the staff cafeteria by a fire alarm, I'll be spending the rest of the afternoon in my office trying to finish the conference paper I have to give on Saturday, while listening to this cheerful offering from She Makes War, "I Want My Country Back." Because: yeah.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Watching from Canada, I've been struck by the similarities between May and our former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right down to the robotic personalities, autocratic tendencies and "strong, stable, majority" mantra. Best of luck getting rid of her, as we eventually got rid of Harper.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:39 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:39 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
I voted (or at least, I'm pretty sure my proxy vote did). It's the last time I can vote in the UK.
posted by scruss at 6:43 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by scruss at 6:43 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
this cheerful offering from She Makes War
My friend Viv is in that, playing bass. Small world, innit?
posted by Grangousier at 6:44 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
My friend Viv is in that, playing bass. Small world, innit?
posted by Grangousier at 6:44 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Tweet from Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK:
"Thinking of scrapping the election and the whole sodding lot of them with it and returning to Absolute Monarchy. Who's in?"
posted by Wordshore at 6:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
"Thinking of scrapping the election and the whole sodding lot of them with it and returning to Absolute Monarchy. Who's in?"
posted by Wordshore at 6:47 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
I work in an office that is 90+% British and 80+% Labour-sympathising in Hong Kong. Many colleagues did not get their postal votes or manage to set up their proxies, and the boss is a vocal, old-school Tory. Tomorrow is going to be a long day.
posted by mdonley at 6:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by mdonley at 6:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
It's the last time I can vote in the UK.
Could you still come back? There is so much to make it tempting!
posted by biffa at 6:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Could you still come back? There is so much to make it tempting!
posted by biffa at 6:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary
This piece by Jack Monroe on Diane Abbott is the one for you. She would make a better Home Secretary than most. I'll take a single figure-muddling interview over a concerted party effort to avoid publishing figures any day.
posted by rory at 6:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
This piece by Jack Monroe on Diane Abbott is the one for you. She would make a better Home Secretary than most. I'll take a single figure-muddling interview over a concerted party effort to avoid publishing figures any day.
posted by rory at 6:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
In any case, Diane Abbott stepped down as Shadow Home Secretary yesterday.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:51 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:51 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Hadn't realized that my constituency was a “battleground”, and YouGov are tipping LibDem Jo Swinson to win. Sorry, Jo, but SNP has my vote — there's still the smell of the hopeless coalition hanging around the LDs for me.
posted by scruss at 6:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 6:54 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
With all this doubt around, one thing I am sure of. I'm getting fuck all work done today.
posted by biffa at 7:01 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 7:01 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Oh! BBC Parliament TV channel (131 on my setup) is doing the Coney US Senate intelligence committee thing live in a few minutes, so switching my attention to that. I have set my alarm for 9pm though, when I have to make a decision between Labour and Green and go out to vote for one of them (I live 90 seconds walk from the polling station, but don't want to push it to the wire).
posted by Wordshore at 7:02 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Wordshore at 7:02 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Out of curiosity, why don't you do it now? No judgement - personally I like to do it as early as I can. I can imagine, though that it would be a nice thing to do on the way to the pub.
posted by Grangousier at 7:06 AM on June 8, 2017
posted by Grangousier at 7:06 AM on June 8, 2017
I live 90 seconds walk from the polling station, but don't want to push it to the wire
I couldn't vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.
posted by rory at 7:06 AM on June 8, 2017
I couldn't vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.
posted by rory at 7:06 AM on June 8, 2017
Another Southwarker here - voted for Coyle after Hughes capitulated on tuition fees and bedroom tax. Back in Normal Politics Days I would not have been hugely keen on Coyle but he's vehemently anti-Brexit and has made a big deal about not going back on his promises like Hughes did.
The Britain Elects nowcast give the seat a 6.3% chance of changing, which seems low to me. Hughes is definitely winning the Enormous Window Sign contest if nothing else.
posted by doop at 7:14 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
The Britain Elects nowcast give the seat a 6.3% chance of changing, which seems low to me. Hughes is definitely winning the Enormous Window Sign contest if nothing else.
posted by doop at 7:14 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
(Not that I'd be gutted either way, since afaik neither of them are *complete* dickheads. If only that were true in the rest of the country..)
posted by doop at 7:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by doop at 7:16 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I meant to vote this morning but then went into zombie mode and had already walked down the hill, got on the bus and was at work before remembering. I'll be home in plenty of time and have to walk past the polling station to get to our pre-election night curry & election themed film evening so not much danger of me not getting it done. Chances are it will be wasted against the incumbent but you never know, its not totally tory dominated here. Have been sure to remind all my undergrads to vote through the day.
posted by biffa at 7:18 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 7:18 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Hughes is seriously winning on the sign front. There are like 8 of them within a 1-minute walk of my front door. I got very excited when I saw my first Coyle poster on what I thought was the neighbourhood Incredibly Enthusiastic About Christmas Terrace House (which I'm sure is visible from space every December), until it was pointed out to me that it was in fact the house next door to the Christmas House. Christmas maintains strict political neutrality in my suburb, apparently.
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:21 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:21 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Out of curiosity, why don't you do it now?
I could have done it before but I was too busy faffing online, and I have a bundle of positive and negative reasons for both Labour and the Greens swirling around. Still shocked by how appallingly amateurish the Liberal Democrats sole leaflet is (the candidate "was a senior lecturer at the university") so they are out which makes it simpler.
Can't do it now as I want to see Senator Kamala Harris - who I am hopeful may make a good run at being US President in 2020 - question Comey.
posted by Wordshore at 7:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I could have done it before but I was too busy faffing online, and I have a bundle of positive and negative reasons for both Labour and the Greens swirling around. Still shocked by how appallingly amateurish the Liberal Democrats sole leaflet is (the candidate "was a senior lecturer at the university") so they are out which makes it simpler.
Can't do it now as I want to see Senator Kamala Harris - who I am hopeful may make a good run at being US President in 2020 - question Comey.
posted by Wordshore at 7:23 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Well, I've at least cancelled out a vote for IDS.
please please please please please please please
posted by lucidium at 7:28 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
please please please please please please please
posted by lucidium at 7:28 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I couldn't vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.
Same here and the Polls Closing In... countdown on the Guardian homepage isn't helping. Rain is horrendous here and there's a huge concert on at a venue on my route home which always slows the traffic down. I've still got 6 hours after leaving work, but I have irrationally bleak thoughts of being stuck on a bus at 9.58 and kicking myself for not getting up earlier.
posted by Catseye at 7:29 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Same here and the Polls Closing In... countdown on the Guardian homepage isn't helping. Rain is horrendous here and there's a huge concert on at a venue on my route home which always slows the traffic down. I've still got 6 hours after leaving work, but I have irrationally bleak thoughts of being stuck on a bus at 9.58 and kicking myself for not getting up earlier.
posted by Catseye at 7:29 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
There's still the smell of the hopeless coalition hanging around the LDs for me.
The next person who posts anything about the Lib Dems having had no significant impact against Tory ideas while in coalition is going to be responsible for my laptop going through the window.
HAVE YOU SEEN WHAT THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN LIKE?
posted by MattWPBS at 7:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
The next person who posts anything about the Lib Dems having had no significant impact against Tory ideas while in coalition is going to be responsible for my laptop going through the window.
HAVE YOU SEEN WHAT THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN LIKE?
posted by MattWPBS at 7:37 AM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
Matt, that's always been my opinion about the LibDems, but now you put it like that... you have a point :(
posted by KateViolet at 7:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by KateViolet at 7:48 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
please please please please please please please redux:
Theresa May has been reported to police over false claims she made during Friday’s BBC Question Time special about Diane Abbott and police DNA records. ... Making false statements about a candidate’s ‘character or conduct’ during an election campaign is a criminal offence under section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983. ... If found guilty, Mrs May would face both criminal penalties and the loss of her parliamentary seat.
posted by rory at 7:50 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Theresa May has been reported to police over false claims she made during Friday’s BBC Question Time special about Diane Abbott and police DNA records. ... Making false statements about a candidate’s ‘character or conduct’ during an election campaign is a criminal offence under section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983. ... If found guilty, Mrs May would face both criminal penalties and the loss of her parliamentary seat.
posted by rory at 7:50 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
I saw that a few days ago and hoping that it's credible. Some of the more partisan news outlets can get a bit carried away on this sort of thing.
It would be a delightful cherry on the sundae of a Tory loss though.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
It would be a delightful cherry on the sundae of a Tory loss though.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:57 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Apparently Paisley is also a battleground where they expect Labour might gain from SNP. Most people I know in Paisley are utterly bemused by this as Mhairi Black is a hugely popular SNP MP with a big local profile. Who decides what constituencies are battlegrounds?
PS. token Mhairi Black maiden speech link.
posted by kariebookish at 7:58 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
PS. token Mhairi Black maiden speech link.
posted by kariebookish at 7:58 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Its an interesting question as to who decides what is a battlefield (not love of course, there's none of that around). The Daily Record doesn't have Paisley as a likely battleground and perhaps more convincingly Paddy Power rate the SNP as massively odds on winners.
Which leads to another interesting question - what looks like good value in terms of betting propositions? Following on from that, are there any high profile types who might be in for a kicking this evening and which might add to the drama for the home watcher?
posted by biffa at 8:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Which leads to another interesting question - what looks like good value in terms of betting propositions? Following on from that, are there any high profile types who might be in for a kicking this evening and which might add to the drama for the home watcher?
posted by biffa at 8:19 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
When I got to the polling station, which is tucked up a little side-street that I never normally visit, unless to vote, I had a rather depressing flashback to voting there in the referendum last year, before everything went tits-up and the End Times began.
posted by Fuchsoid at 8:24 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Fuchsoid at 8:24 AM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
When I got to the polling station, which is tucked up a little side-street that I never normally visit, unless to vote, I had a rather depressing flashback to voting there in the referendum last year, before everything went tits-up and the End Times began.
That's how they win. Resistance is useless, and only leads to the certainty of punishment. Far better to not try. Go into a sort of internal exile, turn to drink, drugs or escapism, because reality belongs to them.
posted by acb at 8:33 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
That's how they win. Resistance is useless, and only leads to the certainty of punishment. Far better to not try. Go into a sort of internal exile, turn to drink, drugs or escapism, because reality belongs to them.
posted by acb at 8:33 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yeah or you could also just vote 'em out.
IMPOSSIBLE, THEY CRY
posted by tel3path at 8:36 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
IMPOSSIBLE, THEY CRY
posted by tel3path at 8:36 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Looking at the Paddy Power odds page on Islington North, it's interesting to see, other than the overwhelming likelihood of Corbyn retaining his seat (1/200), the Green Party are deemed more likely to take the seat (33/1) than the Tories (40/1). I'm not sure whether that's heartening (in the sense of being surrounded overwhelmingl by non-bastards), sobering (in the sense of living in a liberal filter bubble out of touch with the rest of the UK) or worrying (we're likely to be The Enemy, much like one of those Kurdish towns in Erdogan's Turkey, and should hope that May has other fish to fry before noticing us).
posted by acb at 8:45 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:45 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I assume it's that leftwingers who hate Corbyn (and some of them HATE him) are more likely to mass-defect to Green than Tory.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:46 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:46 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Safe seat Conservative here, which is deeply frustrating. In any right and just world, Maria Miller would have found herself prosecuted over the expenses thing, but apparently a half-hearted 32 second apology is just as good.
Going Labour locally, as they've got the best chance of unseating her, but I'm not hopeful. Background-hoping there's enough losses to kill May's career... We can dream. The Humans Rights thing is absolutely breathtaking, although I also particularly enjoyed her "We'll just stop everyone using encryption" anti-terrorism stance. When your best plan for domestic security is literally impossible to implement, you know you've got a winner on your hands.
posted by PeteTheHair at 9:00 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Going Labour locally, as they've got the best chance of unseating her, but I'm not hopeful. Background-hoping there's enough losses to kill May's career... We can dream. The Humans Rights thing is absolutely breathtaking, although I also particularly enjoyed her "We'll just stop everyone using encryption" anti-terrorism stance. When your best plan for domestic security is literally impossible to implement, you know you've got a winner on your hands.
posted by PeteTheHair at 9:00 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Here's today's UK good news anyway: The Scottish Episcopalians have voted to become the first mainstream church in the UK to allow same sex couples to marry in church.
posted by biffa at 9:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by biffa at 9:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Plan for this evening:
Leave work in a few minutes.
Shoot arrows at archery targets for a couple of hours in the rain.
Stop by supermarket on the way home for whisky and vaguely healthy food.
Vote.
Distract myself with Netflix until 10pm.
Get exit polls from the BBC. Drink whisky.
See if the Sunderland results match the exit polls.
Celebrate/ drown my sorrows until I fall asleep on the sofa.
posted by antiwiggle at 9:18 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Leave work in a few minutes.
Shoot arrows at archery targets for a couple of hours in the rain.
Stop by supermarket on the way home for whisky and vaguely healthy food.
Vote.
Distract myself with Netflix until 10pm.
Get exit polls from the BBC. Drink whisky.
See if the Sunderland results match the exit polls.
Celebrate/ drown my sorrows until I fall asleep on the sofa.
posted by antiwiggle at 9:18 AM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Voted because I'd forgotten how much I hate Rubio and had to leave the house.
posted by Wordshore at 9:26 AM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 9:26 AM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Voted in Walthamstow on the way into work this morning. Now perched in a pub in Southwark (it's our monthly meetup for people who enjoy talking about London transport) drinking beer. I'm fully expecting an increased Tory majority, sadly.
On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies.
I'm probably more on the centre-right side of the party, but mainly because I'm a pragmatist - get in, then pull a reverse Overton, so to speak (basically I'm a big ol' Attlee fan). One thing I would say, from the party member point of view, is that in many constituencies (including mine) the problem most of us have had isn't with Corbyn, it's with Momentum.
I mean... Jesus. In my constituency I had to watch (and fight) them whilst they made a genuine, concerted effort to de-select Stella Creasy who is a phenomenal MP. It was full on Judean People's Front level bullshittery and I came very, very close to handing in my membership over it.
So trust me, there's been plenty of pointless backstabbery from both sides of the party over the last couple of years. Which is a real fucking shame.
posted by garius at 9:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies.
I'm probably more on the centre-right side of the party, but mainly because I'm a pragmatist - get in, then pull a reverse Overton, so to speak (basically I'm a big ol' Attlee fan). One thing I would say, from the party member point of view, is that in many constituencies (including mine) the problem most of us have had isn't with Corbyn, it's with Momentum.
I mean... Jesus. In my constituency I had to watch (and fight) them whilst they made a genuine, concerted effort to de-select Stella Creasy who is a phenomenal MP. It was full on Judean People's Front level bullshittery and I came very, very close to handing in my membership over it.
So trust me, there's been plenty of pointless backstabbery from both sides of the party over the last couple of years. Which is a real fucking shame.
posted by garius at 9:42 AM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
I noticed that the Tory candidate for Brighton Pavilion lives in Reading. Everyone else had a registered address in Brighton, even the UKIP candidate.
I live in the Sunderland West constituency. The Tory candidate lives in Stratford-upon-Avon, a 223 mile drive from Sunderland. I bet he had to have lessons on where to find us on a map.
posted by reynir at 9:55 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I live in the Sunderland West constituency. The Tory candidate lives in Stratford-upon-Avon, a 223 mile drive from Sunderland. I bet he had to have lessons on where to find us on a map.
posted by reynir at 9:55 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I have voted after a miserable journey home from work full of missed buses and torrential rain and three-year-old picked up from nursery feeling ill. Trudged into the polling station soaked through to the skin and freezing cold, carrying a sleeping sweaty incredibly heavy child, and having just found out my left boot leaks in puddles.
I think Fate is trying to set my expectations for what tomorrow's going to feel like.
posted by Catseye at 10:32 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I think Fate is trying to set my expectations for what tomorrow's going to feel like.
posted by Catseye at 10:32 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Voted earlier, took me 4 minutes form the time I stepped outside to the time I was back in my house.
I'll probably need a form of ID next time.
Prediction: Tory landslide, because it's been that kind of year.
posted by fullerine at 10:53 AM on June 8, 2017
I'll probably need a form of ID next time.
Prediction: Tory landslide, because it's been that kind of year.
posted by fullerine at 10:53 AM on June 8, 2017
I have spent today also getting very wet in Dundee and Edinburgh - Dundee won the 'heaviest rain' poll, while Edinburgh staged a late surge in the sum-of-misery stakes by making my bus home from Waverley 25 minutes late, thus depositing considerably more total precipitation on my world-weary bod.
Yesterday, in a rather pleasant patch of Leith sunlight, I attended a Nicola Sturgeon wrap-up rallyette, and the mood was very upbeat. Main thrust of La Sturge's speech was "Do you want Tories? Thought not." and the best line was "Labour supporters, your SNP candidate believes in more of Jeremy Corbyn's principles than does Kezia'.
I am now drying out. Shortly, I shall go to vote, on my way to the shops to buy a considerable quantity of booze to take to the traditional Election Night Party chez political pals.
In a small sample of one, Devonian Junior, a millennial, did also go out in the sodding rain and did also vote, so I predict a massive and unexpected surge in the younger demographics and thus a bright new future in which the 8th June 2017 will be seen in history as the precise turning point beginning the New World Order of peace, prosperity, equality and Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism which has seen us reach out to the stars, solve all earthly problems, and create a new golden age of quality TV drama.
posted by Devonian at 11:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
Yesterday, in a rather pleasant patch of Leith sunlight, I attended a Nicola Sturgeon wrap-up rallyette, and the mood was very upbeat. Main thrust of La Sturge's speech was "Do you want Tories? Thought not." and the best line was "Labour supporters, your SNP candidate believes in more of Jeremy Corbyn's principles than does Kezia'.
I am now drying out. Shortly, I shall go to vote, on my way to the shops to buy a considerable quantity of booze to take to the traditional Election Night Party chez political pals.
In a small sample of one, Devonian Junior, a millennial, did also go out in the sodding rain and did also vote, so I predict a massive and unexpected surge in the younger demographics and thus a bright new future in which the 8th June 2017 will be seen in history as the precise turning point beginning the New World Order of peace, prosperity, equality and Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism which has seen us reach out to the stars, solve all earthly problems, and create a new golden age of quality TV drama.
posted by Devonian at 11:04 AM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
Prediction: Tory landslide, because it's been that kind of year.
That was last year. And this isn't a state or local election in the U.S.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
That was last year. And this isn't a state or local election in the U.S.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:17 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Plague of wasps then.
posted by acb at 11:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by acb at 11:25 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.
posted by Automocar at 11:31 AM on June 8, 2017
posted by Automocar at 11:31 AM on June 8, 2017
When was the last time anything good happened?
posted by Artw at 11:32 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:32 AM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Oh, we underestimated the level of Tory turnout in 2015? TURN UP TORY TURNOUT TO 11 THIS TIME
That's not a methodology, that's the way I stock up on ice cream and beer when there's going to be a blizzard.
posted by Automocar at 11:33 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
That's not a methodology, that's the way I stock up on ice cream and beer when there's going to be a blizzard.
posted by Automocar at 11:33 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Just over two hours till depression sits in. I'm still stuck in the office, and I want to get up to Richmond Park to try and do anything to help.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:45 AM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 11:45 AM on June 8, 2017
I voted, but I can't physically bring myself to stay up anxiously waiting for results this time. I did that after the 2015 election, and Brexit, and Trump, and every layer of hope has added a fresh layer of gloom to my life. I can't afford to lose two weeks to a fresh politics-induced depression this month, so I'm just going to assume tomorrow will be as bad as today and go to bed on time.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 11:49 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.
The polls have been wrong in the direction of underestimating the Right (which is the Tories and right-wing press barons). They are shrewd and cunning (witness the way that, by making, the Lib Dems own tuition fees, they killed electoral reform, the way they won Brexit and leveraged that into Juche-with-British-characteristics hard-Brexit, and with Labour on the ropes due to reasons too chronic to fix in one term, have written a manifesto that allows them to reshape the country in their own image). The Sun and the Daily Mail decide the political views of a significant proportion of the population, thus making England look from the outside like a nest of wasps that has collectively decided to choose National Socialism as its ideology. And now they have Cambridge Analytica, dark ads and fake news, and all the fruits of surveillance capitalism, which they can leverage to get the outcome they want. The Left doesn't have anything like that (outside of right-wing conspiracy theories about the supervillain George Soros, that is).
Labour winning an outright majority would require a literal miracle, such as the SNP collapsing and the Tories unable to harvest the windfall, or the votes of envenomed Daily Mail readers and UKIP supporters drifting towards Labour. Labour getting a minority government is just about doable, at a stretch, if they do well and can work out a deal with the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid and a handful of independents (and as far as deal-making goes, they should have an easier time than May, a broken Dalek with all the negotiating skills that entails). The forces arrayed against this are very formidable, though. It's possible, but unlikely.
posted by acb at 11:51 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
The polls have been wrong in the direction of underestimating the Right (which is the Tories and right-wing press barons). They are shrewd and cunning (witness the way that, by making, the Lib Dems own tuition fees, they killed electoral reform, the way they won Brexit and leveraged that into Juche-with-British-characteristics hard-Brexit, and with Labour on the ropes due to reasons too chronic to fix in one term, have written a manifesto that allows them to reshape the country in their own image). The Sun and the Daily Mail decide the political views of a significant proportion of the population, thus making England look from the outside like a nest of wasps that has collectively decided to choose National Socialism as its ideology. And now they have Cambridge Analytica, dark ads and fake news, and all the fruits of surveillance capitalism, which they can leverage to get the outcome they want. The Left doesn't have anything like that (outside of right-wing conspiracy theories about the supervillain George Soros, that is).
Labour winning an outright majority would require a literal miracle, such as the SNP collapsing and the Tories unable to harvest the windfall, or the votes of envenomed Daily Mail readers and UKIP supporters drifting towards Labour. Labour getting a minority government is just about doable, at a stretch, if they do well and can work out a deal with the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid and a handful of independents (and as far as deal-making goes, they should have an easier time than May, a broken Dalek with all the negotiating skills that entails). The forces arrayed against this are very formidable, though. It's possible, but unlikely.
posted by acb at 11:51 AM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.
It's a psychological survival tactic. Mithridates, he died old.
posted by Catseye at 11:53 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
It's a psychological survival tactic. Mithridates, he died old.
posted by Catseye at 11:53 AM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'm out of the prediction game since Brexit and Trump, but to be clear: no way in hell do I think there's any chance of a Labour majority. I just think the chances of a Tory blowout are slim. My best guess is on Friday morning everyone will be scratching their heads and saying "May called an election for this?"
posted by Automocar at 11:55 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Automocar at 11:55 AM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A Twitter thread worth checking out.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 11:58 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 11:58 AM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
The kids are all right, but regrettably can't vote yet?
posted by Aravis76 at 12:03 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Aravis76 at 12:03 PM on June 8, 2017
I think there's a fair argument that the demographic dip of Gen X working it's way up the age-ranges has led to massive institutional failure in the UK and US .
posted by Artw at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Voted this morning, spent the rest of the day trying very hard to not think about it but that vague seething anxiety you get before the dentist or an exam has been with me all day. I just want to know how bad it's going to be.
My Tory candidate in Glasgow had an address in Edinburgh, so they clearly aren't even trying here (same constituency as someone upthread, with the two Patricks who look similar to the point that I'm not entirely convinced it's not just one man really hedging his bets on getting elected).
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
My Tory candidate in Glasgow had an address in Edinburgh, so they clearly aren't even trying here (same constituency as someone upthread, with the two Patricks who look similar to the point that I'm not entirely convinced it's not just one man really hedging his bets on getting elected).
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
That thread is by a Guido Fawkes type, so probably shouldn't be confused with reality. On the other hand, if some primary school really has got the kids to draw communist propaganda and refuse to take it down, they're bloody idiots.
posted by Grangousier at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 12:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
No such chaos at the primary school I just voted at, sadly.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:12 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:12 PM on June 8, 2017
Last time I voted in Glasgow, the Tory candidate had an address in Westminster. The one flyer we got from her did say she'd really enjoyed holidays in Scotland as a child, though!
posted by Catseye at 12:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 12:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
What is even happening?
Something horrible probably.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Something horrible probably.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
My Corbyn-mad cousin, who at a conservative estimate has posted roughly 653 pro-Corbyn news articles to her feed so far this week, has just indicated on Facebook that she finally got around to voting this evening.
We got this.
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
We got this.
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
On the lighter side: Here are the UK’s most infuriating constituency names. "I have a lot of feelings about Britain’s constituency names: that is to say, a lot of them are just wrong."
posted by effbot at 1:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by effbot at 1:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Uggggggggggh I just found out that BBC America is just showing Star Trek and I can't stream BBC here due to region restrictions. Where can I as an American watch election returns?
posted by chainsofreedom at 1:05 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by chainsofreedom at 1:05 PM on June 8, 2017
Roll a D6 every half hour.
- If it's a 1 say "LAB GAIN" to yourself
- if it's 2-4 say "CON HOLD"
- if it's 5-6 say "CON GAIN"
- if it's cocked or falls on the floor say "LIB GAIN"
Congratulations. You'll have accurately recreated tonight's election returns without having to watch them.
posted by garius at 1:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
- If it's a 1 say "LAB GAIN" to yourself
- if it's 2-4 say "CON HOLD"
- if it's 5-6 say "CON GAIN"
- if it's cocked or falls on the floor say "LIB GAIN"
Congratulations. You'll have accurately recreated tonight's election returns without having to watch them.
posted by garius at 1:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
On the lighter side: Here are the UK’s most infuriating constituency names. "I have a lot of feelings about Britain’s constituency names: that is to say, a lot of them are just wrong."
nobody giggles at one of them being named Maidenhead?
posted by indubitable at 1:24 PM on June 8, 2017
nobody giggles at one of them being named Maidenhead?
posted by indubitable at 1:24 PM on June 8, 2017
No, because: Penistone.
posted by Catseye at 1:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 1:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Is Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel still active in politics?
posted by farlukar at 1:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by farlukar at 1:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If anyone is looking for international streaming, tvcatchup.com should have most BBC channels available.
posted by figurant at 1:38 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by figurant at 1:38 PM on June 8, 2017
Uggggggggggh I just found out that BBC America is just showing Star Trek and I can't stream BBC here due to region restrictions. Where can I as an American watch election returns?
Twitter, somewhat surreally
posted by Automocar at 1:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Twitter, somewhat surreally
posted by Automocar at 1:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
HELLO DIMBLEBY!
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:57 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:57 PM on June 8, 2017
I'm on the Isle of Wight this evening. Overheard in the pub: "the bookies are giving the best odds on the Greens taking the Island, and they've got the best information so that must be right".
Overheard earlier today in the library (not on the IoW) from a young CAB volunteer: "I can't remember - does Corbyn want a hard Brexit and May a soft Brexit, or is it the other way round? ... I think what I'll do is wait until I get into the polling booth and then make up my mind."
posted by paduasoy at 1:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Overheard earlier today in the library (not on the IoW) from a young CAB volunteer: "I can't remember - does Corbyn want a hard Brexit and May a soft Brexit, or is it the other way round? ... I think what I'll do is wait until I get into the polling booth and then make up my mind."
posted by paduasoy at 1:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Been door knocking for Vince Cable. Here we go...
posted by MattWPBS at 1:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 1:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
The BBC exit poll is calling a hung parliament.
posted by dng at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Oh shit
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017
Eat it Tories!
Yours, a very sleepy (but now also very happy) Australian
posted by Panthalassa at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Yours, a very sleepy (but now also very happy) Australian
posted by Panthalassa at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Exit poll hung parliament!
posted by MattWPBS at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 2:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Kinell. Now I'm going to have to stay up.
posted by biffa at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by biffa at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
FUCK YEAH! Still 314 vs 266 according to the poll, Con largest party but short a majority and down 17 from the present. LD up to 16.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017
Exit polls have been wrong before. Not usually and not recently, but we remember 1992...
posted by Catseye at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Please be accurate!
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0
Others: 138
posted by MattWPBS at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0
Others: 138
posted by MattWPBS at 2:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Oh shit. Polls says
Tories 314
Lab 266
Snp 34
LD 14
Lab+SNP+LD=314 😬
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Tories 314
Lab 266
Snp 34
LD 14
Lab+SNP+LD=314 😬
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
COALITION OF CHAOS PLEASE.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
Looks like we'll be needing another election thread in six weeks time
posted by dng at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
bloody hell - SNP predicted to have the biggest losses, but yes, hung parliament
posted by Devonian at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Devonian at 2:04 PM on June 8, 2017
Beware of the Shy Tory effect though. Exit polls are good for turnout bias, but if people are still reluctant to admit voting Tory they could still be understating them.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Lab+SNP+LD=314Plaid Cymru Kingmakers!!!
Pint of Dark and a Clark's Pie for the national dish.
posted by fullerine at 2:06 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Oh god the hope is killing me. Well done 6pm me for stocking up snacks though, as if she knew she'd be staying up all night.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Also those numbers could end up giving us another Conservative/Liberal Democrats coalition.
If we thought their tuition fees u-turn was spectacular, wait until they suddenly back hard-brexit.
posted by dng at 2:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
If we thought their tuition fees u-turn was spectacular, wait until they suddenly back hard-brexit.
posted by dng at 2:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
BBC: The Tories will be the largest party but may not have a majority, according to the general election exit poll.
Even a reduced Conservative majority would be astounding to me.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Even a reduced Conservative majority would be astounding to me.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
So uhh, May has to resign if it's hung right? This is a colossal own goal.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Can’t see the LDs going into Coalition this time.
posted by pharm at 2:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Oh god the hope is killing me.
Yes, me too. However I've opened the whisky and it has promised to help me through the night.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Yes, me too. However I've opened the whisky and it has promised to help me through the night.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If May's unexpected pet election results in a reduced majority, is there any chance she would be removed as leader and PM?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Can we just appreciate the real result here:
UKIP - 0
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [36 favorites]
UKIP - 0
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [36 favorites]
I'm on the gin. Hooray for being a student with no work tomorrow! Boo for my liver!
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Do they have anyone worse than May? That's the only way she gets replaced.
posted by Artw at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Rees-Mogg for PM!
posted by doop at 2:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by doop at 2:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
There's no shortage of people worse than May on essentially any measure you care to choose.
posted by vbfg at 2:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by vbfg at 2:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Do they have anyone worse than May?
Prime Minister Michael Gove at your service!
posted by PenDevil at 2:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Prime Minister Michael Gove at your service!
posted by PenDevil at 2:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
So uhh, May has to resign if it's hung right? This is a colossal own goal.
...and it righteously fucks up Brexit, yes?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:14 PM on June 8, 2017
...and it righteously fucks up Brexit, yes?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:14 PM on June 8, 2017
Glad we stopped on the way home and bought bevvies!
posted by skybluepink at 2:14 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 2:14 PM on June 8, 2017
Oh man, I may have peaked too early with the booze.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Don't understand UK Parliament.
Is it possible that Labour could form a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP?
Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Is it possible that Labour could form a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP?
Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:15 PM on June 8, 2017
I'm not ashamed to admit I cried at that exit poll. Even if it all goes to shit later, we fought back.
"I mean, we can pretend Corbyn's in with a shot if it'll make you feel good. I'll be the first one to get the drinks in at the bar if I'm wrong."
My first comment in the first Mefi Election thread. Fuckin hell.
(Remember to drink water, Mefite boozers).
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
"I mean, we can pretend Corbyn's in with a shot if it'll make you feel good. I'll be the first one to get the drinks in at the bar if I'm wrong."
My first comment in the first Mefi Election thread. Fuckin hell.
(Remember to drink water, Mefite boozers).
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
Institute for Government primer on What if there's a hung parliament?
posted by Catseye at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
trotsky: I believe the largest party is given the opportunity to form a coalition first, then it's whoever can command a majority.
posted by Erberus at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Erberus at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017
Is it possible that Labour could form a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP?
Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
If one party has a majority, the Queen will ask that party's leader to be Prime Minister. If not, she will take advice and try to work out who is most likely to receive the support of a majority of Parliament, and continue until she gets that majority.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
If one party has a majority, the Queen will ask that party's leader to be Prime Minister. If not, she will take advice and try to work out who is most likely to receive the support of a majority of Parliament, and continue until she gets that majority.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I mean it's 2017. We're somehow surprised that the current prediction is the stupidest possible outcome?
posted by zachlipton at 2:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 2:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
leotrotsky: The Queen will invite the largest party to form a government. If they are unable to do so, then it’s up to the others to put something together.
posted by pharm at 2:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I mean, I am anticipating a shy Tory vote, as some respondents will be rightfully ashamed of themselves, but still, I was expecting to go to bed feeling wretched about right now...
posted by skybluepink at 2:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 2:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If the Conservatives are the largest party, their leader is very likely to be Prime Minister even if they don't have an absolute majority.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017
May's gone. There is no way she can gamble a majority, campaign as badly as she has, and survive unless she got a landslide. She is gone.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Coalition talks pretty much go on in parallel - the biggest party gets to give up first if the numbers aren't working for them. It's spun as 'first chance to make a government' but the minority parties decide.
posted by Devonian at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Devonian at 2:21 PM on June 8, 2017
> Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
It comes down to "confidence and supply". That basically means the ability to survive a vote of no confidence and an ability to pass a budget.
The ability to do this will become obvious. It took a while in 2010. I think it will be immediate this time around.
If there are parties that can work together and do a deal to provide the above then that's the government. I confidently predict nobody is going in to coalition with the Tories this time.
posted by vbfg at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
It comes down to "confidence and supply". That basically means the ability to survive a vote of no confidence and an ability to pass a budget.
The ability to do this will become obvious. It took a while in 2010. I think it will be immediate this time around.
If there are parties that can work together and do a deal to provide the above then that's the government. I confidently predict nobody is going in to coalition with the Tories this time.
posted by vbfg at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
My rule of thumb is that people are reluctant to amend their predictions, so when they earlier predicted a Tory landslide and now predict a hung Parliament it means there's actually going to be a Labour victory. I just want whatever result blocks Brexit.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Con + DUP + UUP is 324
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.
Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323. (Even if SF wanted to take their seats because of Brexit or something, they'd still need to hold a party conference to legitimize it).
posted by doop at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.
Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323. (Even if SF wanted to take their seats because of Brexit or something, they'd still need to hold a party conference to legitimize it).
posted by doop at 2:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I mean it's 2017. We're somehow surprised that the current prediction is the stupidest possible outcome?
I'm sorry; that was glib and wrong. It's not nearly as stupid as handing Theresa May a majority.
posted by zachlipton at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm sorry; that was glib and wrong. It's not nearly as stupid as handing Theresa May a majority.
posted by zachlipton at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
George Osborne saying he feels that the result could be worse than the exit poll. I don't care if it's just the start of the night, right now I am fucking happy as Larry!
posted by MattWPBS at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Who knows, maybe the exit polls are wrong, and the conservatives win comfortably; at least I can take pleasure in this moment, when a whole lot of Tory grandees saw the exit polls and shat themselves.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
I... goddammnit, I had completely resigned myself to a solid Tory majority and was about to go to bed. Now this glimmer of hope has completely fucked up my sangfroid.
Rees-Mogg for PM!
*Sideshow_Bob_Shudder.gif*
posted by metaBugs at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Rees-Mogg for PM!
*Sideshow_Bob_Shudder.gif*
posted by metaBugs at 2:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Labour tried the 'possession is nine tenths of the law' approach to staying in Downing St in 2010, but as Devonian says it came down to a call made by the smaller party (Lib Dems) to unblock it.
Edit: Devonian not Wordshore :)
posted by toamouse at 2:26 PM on June 8, 2017
Edit: Devonian not Wordshore :)
posted by toamouse at 2:26 PM on June 8, 2017
Also: fuck you, Rupert Murdoch. I hope you and Paul Dacre hilariously get yourself glued together and stumble into a volcano.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
Trump: I'm just committing the finest, most luxurious unforced errors to destroy my executive authority, bigly.
May: Hold my Pimm's.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [54 favorites]
May: Hold my Pimm's.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [54 favorites]
is zero seats for UKIP the expected outcome or just a nice bonus on top of the larger trend?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by murphy slaw at 2:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Oh well, so much for my resignedly going to bed plan.
posted by Aravis76 at 2:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 2:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
Broadly expected for UKIP. It's been known for a while that their support was leaving them in droves for other parties. Mostly the Conservatives, or so it was thought, because flavour of Brexit. Remains to be seen where they actually go. Sounds likeliest to me though
posted by vbfg at 2:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 2:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Wasn't UKIP's only MP a Tory turncoat?
posted by skybluepink at 2:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 2:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Woildnt be surprised if a commitment to suicide-by-Brexit is the only thing that survives.
posted by Artw at 2:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I like Michael Fallon sitting there on the BBC trying desperately to assert they needed to call this election because somehow the Liberal Democrats would have held up their brexit plans somehow, and that it wasn't just a massively cynical act of hubris.
posted by dng at 2:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
May's gone. There is no way she can gamble a majority, campaign as badly as she has, and survive unless she got a landslide. She is gone.
I think you're probably right. And I have to say that, whatever your substantive political views on anything, that is a brilliant outcome here. She has actually managed to make David Cameron, the man who will be remembered for fucking a pig's face and giving us Brexit by accident, look like an acceptable leader. I just wish that there were still enough genuinely competent politicians left in British politics to give me significant hope that whoever is left to make the best of the Brexit fuck up will do a decent job.
But yeah, getting rid of May looks very, very likely, and that, at least, will be something to be grateful for.
posted by howfar at 2:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
I think you're probably right. And I have to say that, whatever your substantive political views on anything, that is a brilliant outcome here. She has actually managed to make David Cameron, the man who will be remembered for fucking a pig's face and giving us Brexit by accident, look like an acceptable leader. I just wish that there were still enough genuinely competent politicians left in British politics to give me significant hope that whoever is left to make the best of the Brexit fuck up will do a decent job.
But yeah, getting rid of May looks very, very likely, and that, at least, will be something to be grateful for.
posted by howfar at 2:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
Liberal Democrats would have held up their brexit plans somehow
because Labour is going to be so much easier to work with?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
because Labour is going to be so much easier to work with?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
So before I go to bed I have to find an answer to the question: "How could this possibly get even stupider?" So I know what to expect when I wake up tomorrow morning.
posted by Grangousier at 2:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 2:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Can you imagine a Con-Lib coalition negotiating Brexit?
Try as I might... computer says no.
posted by Devonian at 2:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Try as I might... computer says no.
posted by Devonian at 2:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
If you're in the US, you can watch the BBC broadcast on Twitter.
posted by Jeanne at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Jeanne at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017
"How could this possibly get even stupider?"
Con-Lab pro-Brexit coalition government
posted by indubitable at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Con-Lab pro-Brexit coalition government
posted by indubitable at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Oh Jesus. I've got so much work to do tomorrow. I can't afford a nailbiting election night.
posted by howfar at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by howfar at 2:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
because Labour is going to be so much easier to work with?
They didn't have to work with Labour or the Liberal Democrats because they already had a majority.
posted by dng at 2:40 PM on June 8, 2017
They didn't have to work with Labour or the Liberal Democrats because they already had a majority.
posted by dng at 2:40 PM on June 8, 2017
Honestly, as a Lib Dem, if the price for stopping a stupidly hard Brexit was another coalition with the Tories and total electoral wipe out, I'd take the sacrifice.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 2:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Luckily I'm watching with the only person i have a meeting with tomorrow, that is now cancelled.
Fallon is such a wanker. I'd be happy if McConnell finishes the night by decking and teabagging him.
posted by biffa at 2:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Fallon is such a wanker. I'd be happy if McConnell finishes the night by decking and teabagging him.
posted by biffa at 2:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
MattWPBS: I don't know that I would. Although they managed to cushion the blow somewhat 2010-2015 they also managed to save the Tories from themselves. Whatever happens next, the Tories have to own it with no willing scapegoats (God knows they're masters of finding unwilling ones).
posted by Grangousier at 2:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Grangousier at 2:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm getting a pizza now, I hope my other half has realised there's no chance I'm going to bed at any point soon.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:45 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 2:45 PM on June 8, 2017
I just can’t see the Tories accepting the terms that the LDs would impose on a coalition - i.e. a second Brexit vote after negotiations.
posted by pharm at 2:46 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by pharm at 2:46 PM on June 8, 2017
(If the Tories don't win, I will visit the UK as I have long yearned to do and spend my sweet tourist dollars there within the next fiscal year, even if I have to put it all on my credit card.)
posted by Frowner at 2:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [24 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 2:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [24 favorites]
I don't think the Lib Dems will be keen for a coalition with anyone. During the period after the 2010 election, the economy was is such bad shape that the Lib Dems were terrified that they'd be blamed for plunging the country into a depression if they didn't do a deal quickly. With hindsight it was fucking idiotic, but I understand what everyone was thinking at the time. I think it's pretty unlikely that we're going to see any coalitions. Confidence and supply, I think, may be what will happen if there is no overall majority, but I'd guess that another election won't be too far behind.
So much for the so called fucking "Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011". Never has a single Act of Parliament been more pointless, idiotic and meaningless.
posted by howfar at 2:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
So much for the so called fucking "Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011". Never has a single Act of Parliament been more pointless, idiotic and meaningless.
posted by howfar at 2:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
The most frustrating thing is knowing that, even after the colossal own-goal of the referendum and the even worse decision to call a general election, the press will still treat the Tories as the party of sensible, pragmatic grown-ups.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
Never has a single Act of Parliament been more pointless, idiotic and meaningless.
The point was to give the Tories an excuse not to hold an election, unless they really, really wanted to
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
The point was to give the Tories an excuse not to hold an election, unless they really, really wanted to
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Exit poll people saying that 76 seats are too close to call according to their margin of error.
posted by pharm at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
(If the Tories don't win, I will visit the UK as I have long yearned to do and spend my sweet tourist dollars there within the next fiscal year, even if I have to put it all on my credit card.)
If you do, I will organise a Bristol MeFi meetup to coincide with your visit, where, should you wish, you will be richly toasted for your profligate (but let's face it, reduced by what will almost certainly be an even more favourable exchange rate) spending.
posted by howfar at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
If you do, I will organise a Bristol MeFi meetup to coincide with your visit, where, should you wish, you will be richly toasted for your profligate (but let's face it, reduced by what will almost certainly be an even more favourable exchange rate) spending.
posted by howfar at 2:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
The most frustrating thing is knowing that, even after the colossal own-goal of the referendum and the even worse decision to call a general election, the press will still treat the Tories as the party of sensible, pragmatic grown-ups.
@matthewstoller: Important to note that Corbyn didn't win. Tories still won a plurality even with the "your children should be eaten by monsters" platform.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
@matthewstoller: Important to note that Corbyn didn't win. Tories still won a plurality even with the "your children should be eaten by monsters" platform.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Sadly, a thread elsewhere has pointed out that the exit poll in 2015 had the Tories getting 316, and was off by 15. So it's probably still bad news for Theresa May if it's the same pattern as last time, but I'm not going to get too excited about the poll now.
It'd still be better than the crushing Tory victory that it looked like when called, though.
posted by tavella at 2:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
It'd still be better than the crushing Tory victory that it looked like when called, though.
posted by tavella at 2:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
"They said parliament was hung."
"And they was right!"
posted by kirkaracha at 2:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
"And they was right!"
posted by kirkaracha at 2:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
> The doubt for me is how long they hold off on the leadership challenge. My inner bastard would do it within six months.
I may have misjudged them. The Telegraph story on the exit poll has a side bar explaining how Tory leadership elections work.
posted by vbfg at 2:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I may have misjudged them. The Telegraph story on the exit poll has a side bar explaining how Tory leadership elections work.
posted by vbfg at 2:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I may have misjudged them. The Telegraph story on the exit poll has a side bar explaining how Tory leadership elections work.
my edition is smudged, what happens after the fattest larva has eaten all the others in its clutch
posted by murphy slaw at 2:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
my edition is smudged, what happens after the fattest larva has eaten all the others in its clutch
posted by murphy slaw at 2:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [18 favorites]
I think Brexit's most easily stopped by a no confidence vote from outside the government. I think that if there were a Tory government, there would easily be ⅓-½ of them who'd rebel if there were a no confidence vote which would involve stopping Brexit. Which could easily happen if the public comes to its senses and realises that there's no benefit whatsoever to it.
Frowner: please visit the UK. I've rarely seen such tangible affection for a country as you show for the UK through your knowledge of it in these threads. And it's not that pricey to get here: my last flight across the Atlantic from Boston to London cost less than the price of the off-peak train ticket from Gatwick to Bath. (£65 vs. £66). I'll come to the Bristol meetup that howfar organises.
posted by ambrosen at 2:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Frowner: please visit the UK. I've rarely seen such tangible affection for a country as you show for the UK through your knowledge of it in these threads. And it's not that pricey to get here: my last flight across the Atlantic from Boston to London cost less than the price of the off-peak train ticket from Gatwick to Bath. (£65 vs. £66). I'll come to the Bristol meetup that howfar organises.
posted by ambrosen at 2:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
DUP flack on the BBC giving us a preview of them being ready to fuck foreigners however they can to help the Tories.
posted by Talez at 2:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Talez at 2:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
And here I had just resigned myself to having no hope at all. And now I am tormented with a faint flutter of it.
posted by skybluepink at 2:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 2:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
During the period after the 2010 election, the economy was is such bad shape that the Lib Dems were terrified that they'd be blamed for plunging the country into a depression if they didn't do a deal quickly. With hindsight it was fucking idiotic, but I understand what everyone was thinking at the time.
That, and we figured we'd stop the worst excesses of the Tories. Which with the hindsight of the last two years, was very fucking accurate.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
That, and we figured we'd stop the worst excesses of the Tories. Which with the hindsight of the last two years, was very fucking accurate.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
My main hope is that, if the Lib Dems end up with the balance of power, they won't squander it for a handful of shiny beads this time, but will hold fast and demand at least a second Brexit referendum on the deal and a preferentially, if not proportionally, elected Commons.
posted by acb at 2:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by acb at 2:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I can see a depressing potential outcome where the Tories scrape a marginal victory, May gets tossed for Boris or someone even worse, and Corbyn takes the relatively small margin as confirmation of the glories of his leadership and continues bumbling on while while trying to get rid of Labour MPs that don't support him.
posted by tavella at 2:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tavella at 2:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think Brexit's most easily stopped by a no confidence vote from outside the government. I think that if there were a Tory government, there would easily be ⅓-½ of them who'd rebel if there were a no confidence vote which would involve stopping Brexit. Which could easily happen if the public comes to its senses and realises that there's no benefit whatsoever to it.
This is fantasy. Labour is too scared of white-van-man and the rabid press to be against brexit. Libdems are the only party who stood entirely against it - and they have shown what use they were....... It ain't being reversed.
posted by lalochezia at 2:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If the Lib Dems are part of a coalition government and use that fact to force a second referendum avoiding Brexit... surely that would be good news for every politician who already privately thinks Brexit is insanity?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Can we not retread the Coalition argument *again*?
posted by pharm at 3:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by pharm at 3:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
In solidarity I have also totally busted my "going to bed at a vaguely reasonable hour" and "limiting alcohol" resolutions (never so terribly resolute at the best of times, but never mind; I'm here with you, bleary eyed, and overly alcoholated). So much <3 <3 <3.
posted by taz at 3:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by taz at 3:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Beware of the Shy Tory effect though.
This. Everywhere in North London, I have seen forests of Labour signs in windows and yards, a decent number of Lib Dems, and a few Green Party signs, but not one Conservative sign. Not one Londoner willing to nail their Tory colours to the mast. Presumably hanging up a poster of Theresa May and “STRONG AND STABLE” or “CRUSH THE SABOTEURS” or whatever the slogan is would be the social equivalent of putting up a crudely drawn swastika subtitled with “I LIKE TO TOUCH KIDS”. And yet, people still vote Tory; they're second or third in most electorates. Tory voters, it seems, are the dark matter of politics in places where one has to hide one's viciousness.
posted by acb at 3:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
This. Everywhere in North London, I have seen forests of Labour signs in windows and yards, a decent number of Lib Dems, and a few Green Party signs, but not one Conservative sign. Not one Londoner willing to nail their Tory colours to the mast. Presumably hanging up a poster of Theresa May and “STRONG AND STABLE” or “CRUSH THE SABOTEURS” or whatever the slogan is would be the social equivalent of putting up a crudely drawn swastika subtitled with “I LIKE TO TOUCH KIDS”. And yet, people still vote Tory; they're second or third in most electorates. Tory voters, it seems, are the dark matter of politics in places where one has to hide one's viciousness.
posted by acb at 3:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
Exit polls unreliable. Conservatives beat exit polls in one riding.
posted by Yowser at 3:04 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Yowser at 3:04 PM on June 8, 2017
lalochezia, as a British resident, you could give me the space to have fantasies here if they're plausible. There can be barely any politicians of any brains who think Brexit is a good idea, and I know that most people I speak to have no grounding behind their preference for Brexit, whether they were Brexit all along ("Because it'll tell Cameron and Osborne where to go") or whether they were remain, but "I wish they'd just get on with it now".
So it's not as if it's overturning long-held beliefs for 80% of the country. It's unlikely, but I'd like to keep sketching out exit scenarios. If a hard Brexit goes ahead, my only sensible course of action will be to emigrate, and my heart will break.
posted by ambrosen at 3:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
So it's not as if it's overturning long-held beliefs for 80% of the country. It's unlikely, but I'd like to keep sketching out exit scenarios. If a hard Brexit goes ahead, my only sensible course of action will be to emigrate, and my heart will break.
posted by ambrosen at 3:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
If this turns out to be true, then Shepherd and I can in good conscience visit family and friends in the UK as we've boycotted my home country for the duration of its own horrors.
posted by Kitteh at 3:08 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Kitteh at 3:08 PM on June 8, 2017
Did they move Sunderland to the other side of some kind of wormhole in the fabric of space-time? Because it sure sounds like it on the BBC feed.
posted by zachlipton at 3:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 3:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sunderland and Newcastle not doing as exit polls suggested, looking better for the Conservatives.
Maybe next time let's try doing an election without any polls at all?
posted by Catseye at 3:09 PM on June 8, 2017
Maybe next time let's try doing an election without any polls at all?
posted by Catseye at 3:09 PM on June 8, 2017
Nah. Both are *very* safe Labour seats, so unlikely to fully reflect wider shifts in the vote. Watch this space basically.
posted by pharm at 3:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by pharm at 3:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I can see a depressing potential outcome where the Tories scrape a marginal victory, May gets tossed for Boris or someone even worse, and Corbyn takes the relatively small margin as confirmation of the glories of his leadership and continues bumbling on while while trying to get rid of Labour MPs that don't support him.
Corbyn seems to have shaped up well in the last month or so. So much so that I'm imagining a Rocky-style montage sequence of him doing so. He seems to be a better leader and negotiator than May, for one, and the current crop of Tories does seem a bit weak as well. (Boris as Foreign Minister?! You're having a laugh...)
Having said that, the Labour front bench is a bit weak, largely due to the more experienced MPs being of a Blairite/Brownite persuasion and having either jumped or been pushed. As Corbyn proves himself and some of the doubts disappear, perhaps more will return.
posted by acb at 3:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Corbyn seems to have shaped up well in the last month or so. So much so that I'm imagining a Rocky-style montage sequence of him doing so. He seems to be a better leader and negotiator than May, for one, and the current crop of Tories does seem a bit weak as well. (Boris as Foreign Minister?! You're having a laugh...)
Having said that, the Labour front bench is a bit weak, largely due to the more experienced MPs being of a Blairite/Brownite persuasion and having either jumped or been pushed. As Corbyn proves himself and some of the doubts disappear, perhaps more will return.
posted by acb at 3:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Maybe next time let's try doing an election without any polls at all?
I feel like it just gave us false hope...
posted by badmoonrising at 3:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I feel like it just gave us false hope...
posted by badmoonrising at 3:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
We are getting a lot of calls so just to be clear: No Coalition. No deals. - Lib Dem Press Office. (SL Twitter)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
That... sounds like it could be utterly meaningless depending on the final results
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:14 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:14 PM on June 8, 2017
If we stop now, we could have a country run entirely by Labour women for 4 years. Sounds good to me.
posted by hfnuala at 3:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by hfnuala at 3:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I'm really not sure how much we can read into results from Sunderland and Newcastle yet - in the north-east in general, there'll be a shift towards the conservatives (former UKIP voters switching), but the rest of the country, not so much.
I was planning to go to bed after the exit poll and get up early - however, the exit poll was so promising. Let's hope it's right.
posted by BigCalm at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017
I was planning to go to bed after the exit poll and get up early - however, the exit poll was so promising. Let's hope it's right.
posted by BigCalm at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Don't they all always say "no deals" anyway?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Oh well back to a state of resigned horror.
posted by Artw at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I wonder if prospective Labour coalition partners would nudge them in the direction of bringing some of the MPs with government experience from before 2010 back to the front bench. It would be an interesting set of coalition talks.
posted by ambrosen at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 3:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Still think we're getting a Tory majority. I have now ordered pizza though.
WAIT A MINUTE. WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.
posted by garius at 3:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
WAIT A MINUTE. WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.
posted by garius at 3:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
I wonder if prospective Labour coalition partners would nudge them in the direction of bringing some of the MPs with government experience from before 2010 back to the front bench.
Just not Blunkett. He's about as authoritarian as May.
posted by acb at 3:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Just not Blunkett. He's about as authoritarian as May.
posted by acb at 3:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Tories still disagree with the exit poll. Their internal polling must have been giving them very different results.
posted by pharm at 3:17 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by pharm at 3:17 PM on June 8, 2017
God, even in its present degraded state, why on earth is the Beeb treating Neil Hamilton as anything even vaguely like a respectable person?
posted by skybluepink at 3:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 3:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.
My thoughts exactly.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 3:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
My thoughts exactly.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 3:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.
Hopefully saying goodbye to his last chance at public life.
(Oh, who am I kidding...?)
posted by Grangousier at 3:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Hopefully saying goodbye to his last chance at public life.
(Oh, who am I kidding...?)
posted by Grangousier at 3:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Is weird reading this thread and twitter while watching BBC Scotland's coverage. Timings and tone is quite different. Also, BBC central has stolen our psephologist.
posted by hfnuala at 3:21 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by hfnuala at 3:21 PM on June 8, 2017
BBC desperately trying to get Jack Straw to pick on Corbyn when he's happily eating crow. Stay classy BBC.
posted by garius at 3:24 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by garius at 3:24 PM on June 8, 2017
Exit poll doesn't include postal votes, but apparently swing is the same regardless of postal vote proportion in the constituencies sampled.
posted by pharm at 3:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 3:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
After hearing their exit poll methodology, I think you're all safe to ignore them COMPLETELY. I'm dying here. What a joke.
posted by Yowser at 3:25 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Yowser at 3:25 PM on June 8, 2017
In the worst case, hopefully this means that, even if the Tories scrape in by their fingernails, their claim to having a sweeping majority to remake the country as they see fit will be shot to pieces, and the Lords will have no qualms about reminding them of this.
posted by acb at 3:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 3:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?
posted by Yowser at 3:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Yowser at 3:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yowser: historically exit polls have been more accurate than the pre-election polls. 1992 was their worst one I think.
posted by pharm at 3:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by pharm at 3:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?
If Number 10 called Brussels tomorrow to cancel Article 50, the EU would be doing cartwheels. They don't want the UK to leave.
posted by Automocar at 3:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
If Number 10 called Brussels tomorrow to cancel Article 50, the EU would be doing cartwheels. They don't want the UK to leave.
posted by Automocar at 3:31 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?
Well, given that the true enormity of what Brexit will actually entail is about to be exposed, I'm sure they'll let us stay if we promise to join Schengen, adopt the Euro, replace our electrical plugs with those round-pinned ones, switch to driving on the right and make all signage bilingual in English and French. Which will be a small price to pay, given the alternative.
posted by acb at 3:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Well, given that the true enormity of what Brexit will actually entail is about to be exposed, I'm sure they'll let us stay if we promise to join Schengen, adopt the Euro, replace our electrical plugs with those round-pinned ones, switch to driving on the right and make all signage bilingual in English and French. Which will be a small price to pay, given the alternative.
posted by acb at 3:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
If Number 10 called Brussels tomorrow to cancel Article 50, the EU would be doing cartwheels. They don't want the UK to leave.
We might have to clap Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre in the Bloody Tower for that to happen, because otherwise the festering venom of frogs-and-krauts two-world-wars-and-one-world-cup hatred will just go underground and continue spreading.
posted by acb at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
We might have to clap Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre in the Bloody Tower for that to happen, because otherwise the festering venom of frogs-and-krauts two-world-wars-and-one-world-cup hatred will just go underground and continue spreading.
posted by acb at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Yowser: legally they may not have the option if A50 is withdrawn. Which I find desperately unlikely as a possibility, despite desperately wanting it. But the EU may not be able to simply kick us out like that. In fact revoking membership of a member rather than them withdrawing is really very difficult indeed.
posted by edd at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by edd at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
To be honest I think we'd just have to pinky swear not to hold a Brexit referendum again and they'd let bygones be bygones.
posted by garius at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by garius at 3:34 PM on June 8, 2017
Guardian has an article on the general accuracy of the exit polls
Turnout is high, which should favour labour.
posted by BigCalm at 3:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Turnout is high, which should favour labour.
posted by BigCalm at 3:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
We also wouldn't get back the special treatment that Thatcher handbagged out of Delors. But that's the price we pay for our hubris.
posted by acb at 3:36 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by acb at 3:36 PM on June 8, 2017
Unsurprisingly, it takes the actual Europeans in the thread (British residents & I think citizens, all) to actually have a reasoned take on the relationship between the UK and the EU. People outside the EU: this isn't sportsball, this is our lives.
posted by ambrosen at 3:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [24 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 3:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [24 favorites]
If you're in the US, you can watch the BBC broadcast on Twitter.
Is it me, or is Twitter have a massive day for stepping into the international news broadcasting space? I watched Comey from the UK via Twitter (Bloomberg feed) this afternoon, now they're putting the BBC Election Night coverage into the US? Have I just missed them doing this before, or is it new?
Also: What you all said. It's the hope that kills you. I had utterly refused to entertain it AT ALL until 10pm tonight. I'd even prepared the miserable, resigned frame of mind in which I was going to reach for Twitter in the morning. Now I've texted my boss to say he might get a last minute annual leave request for tomorrow, and poured the gin.
posted by penguin pie at 3:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is it me, or is Twitter have a massive day for stepping into the international news broadcasting space? I watched Comey from the UK via Twitter (Bloomberg feed) this afternoon, now they're putting the BBC Election Night coverage into the US? Have I just missed them doing this before, or is it new?
Also: What you all said. It's the hope that kills you. I had utterly refused to entertain it AT ALL until 10pm tonight. I'd even prepared the miserable, resigned frame of mind in which I was going to reach for Twitter in the morning. Now I've texted my boss to say he might get a last minute annual leave request for tomorrow, and poured the gin.
posted by penguin pie at 3:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Was going to have an early night... now think I'll see dawn
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:39 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:39 PM on June 8, 2017
Amber Rudd could be in trouble in Hastings. That would be wonderful.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 3:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
"Were you still up for Rudd?"
posted by penguin pie at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by penguin pie at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Rumours that Amber Rudd may be in trouble in Hastings...oh please, oh please, oh please...
posted by skybluepink at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by skybluepink at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
"Were you up for Rudd?"
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:43 PM on June 8, 2017
Priti Patel on BBC trying to spin this, and talking as if the campaign is still going on.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:44 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 3:44 PM on June 8, 2017
Why do they count so fast in the North East? Is it the cold wind coming in off the North Sea?
posted by Grangousier at 3:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 3:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
So delightful that they cut Patel off without even telling her, to go to a Labour win (I have pals at DfID, she is...not well liked).
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
That, and we figured we'd stop the worst excesses of the Tories. Which with the hindsight of the last two years, was very fucking accurate.
I simply don't see how a confidence and supply agreement would not have been better for accomplishing this. The only question, in my mind, was whether the Tories would have swallowed it.
posted by howfar at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I simply don't see how a confidence and supply agreement would not have been better for accomplishing this. The only question, in my mind, was whether the Tories would have swallowed it.
posted by howfar at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm sure they'll let us stay if we promise to join Schengen, adopt the Euro, replace our electrical plugs with those round-pinned ones, switch to driving on the right and make all signage bilingual in English and French.
Speaking as a non-Brit, that all sounds fine except don't you dare get rid of your glorious electrical plugs.
posted by biogeo at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Speaking as a non-Brit, that all sounds fine except don't you dare get rid of your glorious electrical plugs.
posted by biogeo at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Gah. Swings from Labour to Conservative in the first three, enough to make me worried. I don't know whether to go to bed and see in the morning, or stay up.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
These depressing swings to the Conservatives in Labour safe seats are making me terribly jittery. I have a deadline tomorrow, but I can't deflate enough to go to bed now.
posted by Aravis76 at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Aravis76 at 3:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Speaking as a non-Brit, that all sounds fine except don't you dare get rid of your glorious electrical plugs.
“La Vice Anglais”
posted by acb at 3:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
“La Vice Anglais”
posted by acb at 3:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
I like my (probable) MP's reaction to the exit poll - Strong and Stable #oops
Kind of sums it up.
posted by BigCalm at 3:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Kind of sums it up.
posted by BigCalm at 3:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Why do they count so fast in the North East? Is it the cold wind coming in off the North Sea?
They know who is going to win so turning it into a race makes it interesting.
Plus it gets them on TV.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
They know who is going to win so turning it into a race makes it interesting.
Plus it gets them on TV.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
These depressing swings to the Conservatives in Labour safe seats are making me terribly jittery.
Are they out of line with the exit poll?
posted by acb at 3:51 PM on June 8, 2017
Are they out of line with the exit poll?
posted by acb at 3:51 PM on June 8, 2017
They're not so much swings from labour considering Labour have increased their total votes in all three constituencies (and their majority in one).
posted by dng at 3:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dng at 3:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I don't know whether to go to bed and see in the morning, or stay up.Seriously, go to bed. You don't gain anything by watching every return roll in, and you'll be exhausted tomorrow. Go to bed now, and when you wake up you'll know what happened and be able to make sense of it. I am pretty much always on Team Go To Bed in these situations.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Hard to really tell anything from the first three results... gonna have to wait for a proper marginal. And even then I think results could be all over the shop.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:52 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:52 PM on June 8, 2017
Daily Mail Editor Paul Dacre ceased tugging and looked down at his flaccid dongle. What had happened? Where had it all gone wrong? Should it have been fourteen pages of hate? Should it have been twelve?
He tugged uselessly at his once-noble pole. It was no good. All he could think of was polls of the Exit variety. It must be wrong. It had to be wrong, for God sake. They could not be reliant on the Irish, surely, even if they were of the right sort? At least so far the north-east wasn't entirely in line with the forecast. If the leave vote stayed strong then a majority might still be on the cards.
He hoped so anyway, he thought, looking down. Otherwise, his own little conservative member might never be strong and stable again.
posted by garius at 3:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
He tugged uselessly at his once-noble pole. It was no good. All he could think of was polls of the Exit variety. It must be wrong. It had to be wrong, for God sake. They could not be reliant on the Irish, surely, even if they were of the right sort? At least so far the north-east wasn't entirely in line with the forecast. If the leave vote stayed strong then a majority might still be on the cards.
He hoped so anyway, he thought, looking down. Otherwise, his own little conservative member might never be strong and stable again.
posted by garius at 3:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
Okay, interesting. First three are BETTER for Labour than YouGov's constituency model.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:54 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 3:54 PM on June 8, 2017
The Guardian has just put up a picture of Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger. I'm so annoyed about Brexit and May and the collapse of decency and everything, but there are truly great things about this country.
posted by Aravis76 at 3:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 3:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Seriously, go to bed. You don't gain anything by writing Paul Dacre slash fanfic, and you'll be spent tomorrow.
Fixed that for you, garius & ArbitraryAndCapricious.
posted by ambrosen at 3:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Fixed that for you, garius & ArbitraryAndCapricious.
posted by ambrosen at 3:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Newcastle upon Tyne East swung 7% to Labour
The Guardian has it as 2.1%, with the other two being swings to the Tories (3.5% and 2.3%)
posted by acb at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Guardian has it as 2.1%, with the other two being swings to the Tories (3.5% and 2.3%)
posted by acb at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Re possible coalitions, a friend who's a very active Lib Dem party member says that since 2010 the LDs have changed their rules so that coalition proposals have to be voted on and accepted/rejected by the party members. So really, no one knows anything at this point because this seems to be the sole area of #GE2017 left unpolled.
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
oh can we just fastforward to Amber Rudd's seat so I can go to bed.
posted by Catseye at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 3:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I wouldn't sweat the small Tory swings in Sunderland too much - it's a strong Leave area with a previously strong UKIP vote. Some of that has passed over to the Tories, but possibly not in as large a proportion as had been expected.
posted by anagrama at 4:00 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by anagrama at 4:00 PM on June 8, 2017
11% swing to Lab in Swindon N... that's better
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
That Swindon result...
...nobody knows what the fuck is going on, do they?
posted by garius at 4:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
...nobody knows what the fuck is going on, do they?
posted by garius at 4:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm going to offer some general words of comfort. Anything short of a significant gain in seats for the Tories is good here. The problems we are facing, right now, are pretty close to existential, and May declared an election with the intent of cementing her utterly incompetent leadership in place for five years. If she doesn't do that, then space opens up for a less blinkered, stupid and suicidal approach to the nightmare we're facing.
I'll be disappointed, but not surprised, if the Tories retain control. But if they don't get the big mandate for idiocy that they were looking for, I'll be seriously fucking relieved.
This is the world we live in now. Get used to moderating your expectations. It's going to be a long tough fight, but these fuckers aren't impregnable, and we will take them down and make this country and this world just. Maybe I'll be an old man by the time it happens, and every day of misery these bastards impose on the people I work for is a day too fucking long, but I take heart in any glimmer of hope in this bleak landscape, because it reminds me that we will, in the end, win.
Courage mes braves.
posted by howfar at 4:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [41 favorites]
I'll be disappointed, but not surprised, if the Tories retain control. But if they don't get the big mandate for idiocy that they were looking for, I'll be seriously fucking relieved.
This is the world we live in now. Get used to moderating your expectations. It's going to be a long tough fight, but these fuckers aren't impregnable, and we will take them down and make this country and this world just. Maybe I'll be an old man by the time it happens, and every day of misery these bastards impose on the people I work for is a day too fucking long, but I take heart in any glimmer of hope in this bleak landscape, because it reminds me that we will, in the end, win.
Courage mes braves.
posted by howfar at 4:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [41 favorites]
The Guardian has just put up a picture of Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger. I'm so annoyed about Brexit and May and the collapse of decency and everything, but there are truly great things about this country.
Australia seems to have inherited this very tradition. Every election has a slew of joke candidates, usually in the Prime Minister's electorate. There was a perennial candidate who went by the name Cecil Murgatroyd for a few decades; in one of his last elections, at the time of the referendum on whether to become a republic, he ran under the banner of the Imperial British Conservative Party, attired in pith helmet and colonial dress uniform; his platform was to have a junior member of the British Royal Family (Princess Anne, I believe) become the monarch of Australia, in an arrangement modelled on the Brazilian “cadet monarchy” of the 19th century.
posted by acb at 4:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Australia seems to have inherited this very tradition. Every election has a slew of joke candidates, usually in the Prime Minister's electorate. There was a perennial candidate who went by the name Cecil Murgatroyd for a few decades; in one of his last elections, at the time of the referendum on whether to become a republic, he ran under the banner of the Imperial British Conservative Party, attired in pith helmet and colonial dress uniform; his platform was to have a junior member of the British Royal Family (Princess Anne, I believe) become the monarch of Australia, in an arrangement modelled on the Brazilian “cadet monarchy” of the 19th century.
posted by acb at 4:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger
The gymnasium falls silent. Mr Fishfinger sips his coffee, hands tensed, eyes narrowed, cufflinks askew. Somewhere, an infant cries and is swiftly hushed.
posted by saturday_morning at 4:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
The gymnasium falls silent. Mr Fishfinger sips his coffee, hands tensed, eyes narrowed, cufflinks askew. Somewhere, an infant cries and is swiftly hushed.
posted by saturday_morning at 4:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
11% swing to Lab in Swindon N... that's better
Er, sorry - think that was a gain not a swing. Still good news.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Er, sorry - think that was a gain not a swing. Still good news.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Amber Rudd could be in trouble in Hastings. That would be wonderful.
That and Sophie Walker beating the outspokenly misogynistic Tory incumbent in Shipley, on the strength of progressive-alliance tactical votes.
posted by acb at 4:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
That and Sophie Walker beating the outspokenly misogynistic Tory incumbent in Shipley, on the strength of progressive-alliance tactical votes.
posted by acb at 4:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
The Guardian has it as 2.1%
That's Newcastle Central. The Guardian is currently reporting an 18%(!?) Lab swing in Newcastle East.
posted by anagrama at 4:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
That's Newcastle Central. The Guardian is currently reporting an 18%(!?) Lab swing in Newcastle East.
posted by anagrama at 4:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
If UKIP come out of this with zero seats, as predicted, I do hope they can stop being invited onto every single BBC political programme. If they want minority MPs, get some of the Greens!
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 4:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 4:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
I am really loving the coverage on the BBC. So far they've come up with this crazy paving stone graphic "leading" to Downing Street, and David Dimbleby complained about (and swatted at) a fly in the studio.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 4:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
oh, I think the constituency of Question Time will still be UKIP (HOLD).
posted by Catseye at 4:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 4:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
oh can we just fastforward to Amber Rudd's seat so I can go to bed.
Guardian says we'll find out about Hastings and Rye in about 3 hours.
posted by Artw at 4:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Guardian says we'll find out about Hastings and Rye in about 3 hours.
posted by Artw at 4:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
If UKIP come out of this with zero seats, as predicted, I do hope they can stop being invited onto every single BBC political programme. If they want minority MPs, get some of the Greens!
The Greens are too nice; it doesn't make good TV. Also, they're too left-wing, and the BBC would have to balance it out with a lot of right-wing red meat to avoid the Tories making knife-sharpening noises at them, egged on by Murdoch.
Maybe they could recruit Morrissey as a spokesperson and fix this?
posted by acb at 4:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
The Greens are too nice; it doesn't make good TV. Also, they're too left-wing, and the BBC would have to balance it out with a lot of right-wing red meat to avoid the Tories making knife-sharpening noises at them, egged on by Murdoch.
Maybe they could recruit Morrissey as a spokesperson and fix this?
posted by acb at 4:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
With a lot of these 'swings' I really, really want to see them compared to 2010. Because so far it's very clear that it's where the UKIP vote is going that matters.
In each instance so far, I want to know whether it's just reverting to the party it was with before, or if there's a substantial shift to the Tories. That'd be telling.
posted by garius at 4:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
In each instance so far, I want to know whether it's just reverting to the party it was with before, or if there's a substantial shift to the Tories. That'd be telling.
posted by garius at 4:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I am really loving the coverage on the BBC. So far they've come up with this crazy paving stone graphic "leading" to Downing Street, and David Dimbleby complained about (and swatted at) a fly in the studio.
The increased yearly cost of election night CGI is surely the reason there's only 12 episodes of Doctor Who each series now rather than 13.
posted by dng at 4:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
The increased yearly cost of election night CGI is surely the reason there's only 12 episodes of Doctor Who each series now rather than 13.
posted by dng at 4:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
Man, when Murdoch shuffles off this mortal coil U.K. politics just isn't going to know what to do with itself, is it? That evil fuck has been there my entire life making everything worse.
posted by Artw at 4:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
If a Tory-whisperer at the Spectator is right, the knives will be out for May even if she gets a majority of 12. “The men in grey suits” are said to be livid.
posted by acb at 4:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I think the knives have been out for May since a few weeks before the election. She'll be saved if she gets a majority of say 80+, but otherwise...
posted by Catseye at 4:14 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Catseye at 4:14 PM on June 8, 2017
Ken Clarke looks far more exhausted and annoyed than he usually does. What a year his party has put him through.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Aravis76 at 4:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
North east = Rust belt?
posted by biffa at 4:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 4:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Look out everyone! Ken Clarke's done his top button up. That means he's pissed off.
posted by garius at 4:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Paul Waugh from the Huff Post is saying there's a Lab gain predicted at Kensington! Kensington!!!!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
North east = Rust belt?
Ehhhhh.... sure. Kind of.
posted by Automocar at 4:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Ehhhhh.... sure. Kind of.
posted by Automocar at 4:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
"God I hate referendums. I hope we never hold another referendum again." - Ken Clarke, continuing to be my favouritest Tory.
posted by garius at 4:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
North east = Rust belt?
Sort of. There is a reason I've spent my entire working life away from my home area.
posted by antiwiggle at 4:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sort of. There is a reason I've spent my entire working life away from my home area.
posted by antiwiggle at 4:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Stop it with the hope everyone.
posted by Artw at 4:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
Ok, cooling on the BBC coverage. Why exactly do we need to know what Farage's thoughts are at this point? Isn't he like triply irrelevant?
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
@natesilver: The problem is that Theresa May forgot to visit Wisconsinshire.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [36 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 4:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [36 favorites]
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
I've tried unsuccessfully to point out the irony of how much powder he's spent vilifying refugees before making this declaration.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
I've tried unsuccessfully to point out the irony of how much powder he's spent vilifying refugees before making this declaration.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
I remember growing up under Thatcher and thereby hating Kenneth Clarke as a member of her cabinet.
Being able to change your mind a bit is a good quality however, even if it is often criticised in politicians.
posted by edd at 4:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Being able to change your mind a bit is a good quality however, even if it is often criticised in politicians.
posted by edd at 4:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
John Prescott on Twitter: Heard from very good source who was there that Rupert Murdoch stormed out of The Times Election Party after seeing the Exit Poll
posted by Catseye at 4:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 4:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [19 favorites]
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
Respecting the will of the people.
posted by dng at 4:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Respecting the will of the people.
posted by dng at 4:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
Is your "friend" college educated, preferably masters level, with an in demand skill set?
If not they're going to be an illegal immigrant in their new land. First world English speaking countries are very picky about who they take in.
posted by Talez at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Is your "friend" college educated, preferably masters level, with an in demand skill set?
If not they're going to be an illegal immigrant in their new land. First world English speaking countries are very picky about who they take in.
posted by Talez at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
> Lab gain predicted at Kensington
Seriously? The sitting Tory got 51% of the vote last time and 8k more than Labour. Wikipedia says that the pro-Brexit MP / anti-Brexit constituents could be an issue - is that the thinking?
posted by paduasoy at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017
Seriously? The sitting Tory got 51% of the vote last time and 8k more than Labour. Wikipedia says that the pro-Brexit MP / anti-Brexit constituents could be an issue - is that the thinking?
posted by paduasoy at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
Good. luck. with. that. (Given that Aus, NZ, and US are all tightening immigration policies. I guess there's Canada? South Africa? India?).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Good. luck. with. that. (Given that Aus, NZ, and US are all tightening immigration policies. I guess there's Canada? South Africa? India?).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
The YouGov model that we've all (temporarily?) stopped scoffing at had Kensington as a toss-up.
posted by Catseye at 4:30 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Catseye at 4:30 PM on June 8, 2017
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
/searches furiously for travel brochures
posted by azpenguin at 4:31 PM on June 8, 2017
/searches furiously for travel brochures
posted by azpenguin at 4:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Kettering won by a dangerous experiment to make the most cliched looking Tory
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Guardian liveblog says "The bookies have been sending press notices out about Boris Johnson’s odds of becoming next Tory leader. Paddy Power have him on 2/1."
No, please, no. (So sadly plausible though.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
No, please, no. (So sadly plausible though.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
i heard Kenya is nice this time of year
posted by indubitable at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
i heard Kenya is nice this time of year
posted by indubitable at 4:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Apparently, Paddy Power have Boris Johnson on 2/1 to be the next Tory leader. If he ends up as the next Prime Minister as well, both sides of the pond will be run by hirsute-parasitic-brain-slug hosts.
posted by acb at 4:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
"You're allowed back on television again!" - Dimbleby fucking with disgraced former defence minister Liam Fox (to use his full title).
posted by garius at 4:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Is your "friend" college educated, preferably masters level, with an in demand skill set?
Actually yeah, he is. After making this announcement a number of Americans commented to the effect of "yeah thanks but no thanks, we've got plenty of our own xenophobes right now."
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Actually yeah, he is. After making this announcement a number of Americans commented to the effect of "yeah thanks but no thanks, we've got plenty of our own xenophobes right now."
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.
'Scotland' if that exit poll is right, sadly
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:35 PM on June 8, 2017
'Scotland' if that exit poll is right, sadly
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:35 PM on June 8, 2017
Apparently, Paddy Power have Boris Johnson on 2/1 to be the next Tory leader. If he ends up as the next Prime Minister as well, both sides of the pond will be run by hirsute-parasitic-brain-slug hosts.
Who were born in New York City and don't seem very happy about it.
posted by Etrigan at 4:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Who were born in New York City and don't seem very happy about it.
posted by Etrigan at 4:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Well, if he's quick he'll still be able to move to Ireland for the next couple of years.
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 8, 2017
Damnit Nuneaton. I had dared to hope.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by tractorfeed at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Just a brief reminder that all of this is happening because Cameron wanted to shore up his party against pro-Brexit internal dissent. In case you didn't think we're in the insanity timeline.
I feel like we're the dead pig now.
posted by Erberus at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
I feel like we're the dead pig now.
posted by Erberus at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [22 favorites]
Re pro-Brexit and pro-Tory, I know someone similar who rails against "bloody immigrants taking British services". Except he does it from Bulgaria, where he moved because it was cheaper and he could make a living teaching English.
posted by scruss at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
posted by scruss at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
An estimate / guestimate it looks like the collapsed UKIP vote has edged more to Lab than Con. And high turnout favouring young vote.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Re pro-Brexit and pro-Tory, I know someone similar who rails against "bloody immigrants taking British services". Except he does it from Bulgaria, where he moved because it was cheaper and he could make a living teaching English.
there's a big enclave of 'em in Spain
posted by indubitable at 4:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
there's a big enclave of 'em in Spain
posted by indubitable at 4:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Ken Clarke, continuing to be my favouritest Tory.
While I do sort of agree with you, it is a bit like picking your favourite strain of necrotising bacteria, isn't it?
posted by howfar at 4:42 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
While I do sort of agree with you, it is a bit like picking your favourite strain of necrotising bacteria, isn't it?
posted by howfar at 4:42 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
"Running through fields of wheat is now officially the second worst thing Theresa May ever did" - Sam Coates (Times)
posted by garius at 4:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
Count faster! I can only hit refresh for so long.
posted by Justinian at 4:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 4:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Hold on tight, Justinian, Guardian timeline suggests 1amish should bring a few interesting results.
posted by penguin pie at 4:51 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 4:51 PM on June 8, 2017
Where are all the UKIP candidates? Why aren't they at the counts? Did nobody tell them the election was on?
posted by Catseye at 4:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 4:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
When the Amish call us "the English" I didn't know they meant it so literally.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zombieflanders at 4:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
LAB hold Darlington. That's probably the first telling result of the evening.
posted by garius at 4:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
From Twitter: If Theresa May does blow this, the Conservative manifesto will go down as the vaguest suicide note in history.
posted by ambrosen at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
It would be better for television (but admittedly worse for democracy) if the polls closed a couple of hours earlier.
i.e. I’m tired.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
i.e. I’m tired.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Fell asleep at 10:05. Just woke up. LOLing.
posted by Wordshore at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 4:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [23 favorites]
THAT is a brilliant strategic move, Wordshore. Between exit poll and now, you've missed nowt.
posted by penguin pie at 4:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 4:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Jesus. Forgot how much Douglas Alexander looks like an uncanny valley ventriloquist's dummy.
posted by garius at 5:01 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by garius at 5:01 PM on June 8, 2017
Jeremy Vine's graphic re Scotland looks totally mad. I can't honestly seeing it being that bad for the SNP
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:01 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:01 PM on June 8, 2017
You know what BBC election special needs? Some kind of alert where you can flag up the seats you're interested in, and your TV wakes you up for them.
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
YouGov model has 44 SNP seats in Scotland, which seems more likely (but then who knows anything any more).
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8, 2017
If what the Guardian's Zoe Williams has heard is correct, Philip Davies has been unseated by the Women's Equality Party.
posted by acb at 5:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
oh please oh please oh please...
posted by Catseye at 5:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 5:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If what the Guardian's Zoe Williams has heard is correct, Philip Davies has been unseated by the Women's Equality Party.
That would be so fucking good.
posted by garius at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
That would be so fucking good.
posted by garius at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Honestly I only just read up on Philip Davies today but holy shit what an arsehole he is. Amazing if WEP have unseated him.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
David Dimbleby very much deserves to get to go to the bathroom, but I always find it really funny how they interrupt the election results coverage every hour to go to the news with Reeta Chakrabarti, who does election results coverage.
posted by zachlipton at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Please please please. One of my top two desires that is. I didn't dare dream of either let alone anything else.
posted by edd at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by edd at 5:05 PM on June 8, 2017
The always interesting Stephen Bush who's currently running the NS liveblog says the results this far follows that YouGov model pretty well, with Labour slightly ahead of the model in Remain-facing seats, and slightly under in Leave-facing ones. He's convinced we'll see a hung parliament when this is done.
At the other end, someone (at BBC, don't remember?) extrapolated the first few results to mean that the exit poll was off enough that CON could still win with 100 seats or so. That doesn't seem very likely...
I like my (probable) MP's reaction to the exit poll - Strong and Stable #oops
Big fan of Jess. Hopefully her rather horrible LD opponent loses bigly. Maybe he'll even find some time to read her book (it's good), instead of just ranting on Internet about how outrageous it is that she's written a book for women!
posted by effbot at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
At the other end, someone (at BBC, don't remember?) extrapolated the first few results to mean that the exit poll was off enough that CON could still win with 100 seats or so. That doesn't seem very likely...
I like my (probable) MP's reaction to the exit poll - Strong and Stable #oops
Big fan of Jess. Hopefully her rather horrible LD opponent loses bigly. Maybe he'll even find some time to read her book (it's good), instead of just ranting on Internet about how outrageous it is that she's written a book for women!
posted by effbot at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A dip a zip a bip a bop adibbadibbaBoobadoopZUP what's up ya absolute rotters socialism bout to do that thing
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Wow. British politics are fascinating. I don't know exactly what's going on but I'm learning so much from this thread and Twitter.
What the heck is a bawbag?
posted by guiseroom at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
What the heck is a bawbag?
posted by guiseroom at 5:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?
posted by murphy slaw at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by murphy slaw at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017
This Labour (sp?) stuff sounds pretty good maybe we should get some of that in the states
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I know a lot of people in Shipley, often political and haven't seen one of them mention WEP. They've all been Labour on FB. I struggle to believe the Phillip Davis story.
(on preview, a thing in which baws are kept. e.g Phillip Davis)
posted by vbfg at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017
(on preview, a thing in which baws are kept. e.g Phillip Davis)
posted by vbfg at 5:11 PM on June 8, 2017
What the heck is a bawbag?
It was a hurricane
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
It was a hurricane
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
May was asked "What's the naughtiest thing" she's ever done. Answer: "Run through a wheat field".
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017
What the heck is a bawbag?
A type of hurricane.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A type of hurricane.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
> can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?
Theresa May was asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done was. She said running through a field of wheat.
posted by vbfg at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017
Theresa May was asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done was. She said running through a field of wheat.
posted by vbfg at 5:12 PM on June 8, 2017
I'm not sure if I want to live in a world where I don't get to see more videos of Mhairi Black preachin' it in parliament. She is so great and I will be crushed if she loses her seat.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 5:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?
May was asked in a interview what was the naughtiest thing she did as a child and it was 'running through fields to wheat' (which annoys farmers)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:13 PM on June 8, 2017
May was asked in a interview what was the naughtiest thing she did as a child and it was 'running through fields to wheat' (which annoys farmers)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:13 PM on June 8, 2017
First Labour gain from SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
posted by Catseye at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Catseye at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017
I guess it'll be a while before May lets anyone ask her questions again, if at all.
posted by Artw at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
The ever-eloquent Charlie Brooker: “I suppose the history books will say Theresa May poured her legacy into an upturned crash helmet and shat in it.”
posted by acb at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
Jeremy Vine's graphic re Scotland looks totally mad. I can't honestly seeing it being that bad for the SNP
9% swing to Labour, lost Rutherglen.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
9% swing to Labour, lost Rutherglen.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Theresa May was asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done was. She said running through a field of wheat.
Finally, a leader that regular people can relate to. A leader who's been to the edge and knows how to avoid disaster.
posted by rhizome at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Finally, a leader that regular people can relate to. A leader who's been to the edge and knows how to avoid disaster.
posted by rhizome at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
"Never piss off wheat farmers in key marginals" - Martha Gill
posted by garius at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by garius at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
Labour by far the biggest gainers in Harrogate and Knaresborough. Looks as though Labour's held steady in their poorer heartlands and made its gains in richer places.
posted by ambrosen at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by ambrosen at 5:15 PM on June 8, 2017
First Labour gain from SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
On something like a 10% swing against SNP... that SNP result in the exit poll not looking so mad now. Wow, what an election.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:16 PM on June 8, 2017
On something like a 10% swing against SNP... that SNP result in the exit poll not looking so mad now. Wow, what an election.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:16 PM on June 8, 2017
I guess it'll be a while before May lets anyone ask her questions again, if at all.
I think someone's going to be asking her if she'll go quietly, or will make them push her.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:17 PM on June 8, 2017
I think someone's going to be asking her if she'll go quietly, or will make them push her.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:17 PM on June 8, 2017
Well, with over 20 results in, it feels like the exit polls are reasonably close. Certainly we aren't seeing a swing to the Tories, which means they won't be increasing their majority - which in turn makes this a real failure for them.
£ dropping by 2% against the $ indicates traders think there's a reduced Tory majority, if not a hung Parliament. What a turnaround! I wish I'd put money on a hung Parliament...
posted by adrianhon at 5:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
£ dropping by 2% against the $ indicates traders think there's a reduced Tory majority, if not a hung Parliament. What a turnaround! I wish I'd put money on a hung Parliament...
posted by adrianhon at 5:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
The day after the U.S. elections a newspaper online had a headline: World Leaders Call to Congratulate Trump. (To be fair people who write articles are not always those who write headlines.) So, I thought, well, I guess some world leaders are calling Trump, after all he did win. So I clicked on the story. Two world leaders (or 1.05): Putin and Farage.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
which annoys farmers
Oh, it can be a bit naughtier than that.
posted by effbot at 5:18 PM on June 8, 2017
Oh, it can be a bit naughtier than that.
posted by effbot at 5:18 PM on June 8, 2017
Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support? There are a couple of ways that could have happened, including just better Labour turnout in general, but I'm wondering if there's any available data so far.
posted by zachlipton at 5:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 5:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
@carlmaxim FUN FACT: Crop circles are the result of Theresa May running through wheat fields and repeatedly performing U-turns.#fieldsofwheat
posted by tractorfeed at 5:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 5:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support? There are a couple of ways that could have happened, including just better Labour turnout in general, but I'm wondering if there's any available data so far.
A lot of them would have been the left-behind working class from the deindustrialised cities of the North, and thus traditional Labour supporters, at least before Blairism.
posted by acb at 5:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
A lot of them would have been the left-behind working class from the deindustrialised cities of the North, and thus traditional Labour supporters, at least before Blairism.
posted by acb at 5:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Lord, give me the confidence of a Tory calling for a public vote.
posted by duffell at 5:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by duffell at 5:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
Can someone please explain what the heck the returning officer for Tooting is wearing and why he has to dress up like that in the middle of the night?
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Just committed myself to staying up a few more hours by drinking tea so strong only an English person can handle it.
posted by Wordshore at 5:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 5:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support?
Seen bits and pieces (e.g. on the Guardian) suggesting UKIP vote is splintering between Labour and Conservative.
On preview: agree with acb, a lot would be former working class Labour voters. Tories had apparently hoped that these voters could then be won from UKIP to Conservatives, but this doesn't seem to be happening.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Seen bits and pieces (e.g. on the Guardian) suggesting UKIP vote is splintering between Labour and Conservative.
On preview: agree with acb, a lot would be former working class Labour voters. Tories had apparently hoped that these voters could then be won from UKIP to Conservatives, but this doesn't seem to be happening.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Oh dudes, bawbag is not just a hurricane *rolls eyes*. It's a ball bag. Ball sack. Scrotum. Also a Scottish insult, used for someone who's a bit of a wide-o, a pain in the arse, got applied to a hurricane that caused lots of disruption.
Also: I'd forgotten this point in the night - where your tiredness and desperation to go to bed rises in perfect tandem with the intensity of the results coming in so you end up HAVING to stay up, hysteria bedamned.
posted by penguin pie at 5:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Also: I'd forgotten this point in the night - where your tiredness and desperation to go to bed rises in perfect tandem with the intensity of the results coming in so you end up HAVING to stay up, hysteria bedamned.
posted by penguin pie at 5:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Labour hold Tooting, as I often do after eating cheese.
posted by miguelcervantes at 5:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by miguelcervantes at 5:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
On my third pint of water
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Can someone please explain what the heck the returning officer for Tooting is wearing and why he has to dress up like that in the middle of the night?
They're ceremonial mayoral robes. Presumably once you become a ceremonial borough mayor you have to wear the chains of office at all times, lest your illusory authority leeches away into the ether, never to return.
posted by dng at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
They're ceremonial mayoral robes. Presumably once you become a ceremonial borough mayor you have to wear the chains of office at all times, lest your illusory authority leeches away into the ether, never to return.
posted by dng at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
At the moment the UKIP crash feels a bit like watching Romania pull out of the Axis.
I mean obviously it's a good thing, but it's tricky to know if it means an end to evil is finally in sight.
posted by garius at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I mean obviously it's a good thing, but it's tricky to know if it means an end to evil is finally in sight.
posted by garius at 5:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
You'd think an election this close to my time zone would mean I could go to bed at a reasonable hour, but noooooo.
(Glad, still.)
posted by nat at 5:28 PM on June 8, 2017
(Glad, still.)
posted by nat at 5:28 PM on June 8, 2017
Corbyn now favourite to be next PM on betting sites?!?!
posted by adrianhon at 5:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by adrianhon at 5:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support?
Most of the rest will be the northern "I've always been a traditional Labour voter, but..." contingent that May's team thought they were in with a chance with. I think Labour's biggest story out of this is that theres a lot of Labour voters who switched parties but not really allegiances, and always considered themselves sort of Labour voters out on secondment until Labour got its act together. Suspect it'll be the same story with SNP -> LAB seats.
posted by Catseye at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Most of the rest will be the northern "I've always been a traditional Labour voter, but..." contingent that May's team thought they were in with a chance with. I think Labour's biggest story out of this is that theres a lot of Labour voters who switched parties but not really allegiances, and always considered themselves sort of Labour voters out on secondment until Labour got its act together. Suspect it'll be the same story with SNP -> LAB seats.
posted by Catseye at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
More Tory inside dope from the Spectator's James Forsyth: Am hearing Tories now giving up on a majority as they see more of the London results.
I've been wary of retiring to bed and waking up to find that, sometime around 5am, the Tories have clawed their losses back and sit gloating in victory. Now, not quite so much.
posted by acb at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I've been wary of retiring to bed and waking up to find that, sometime around 5am, the Tories have clawed their losses back and sit gloating in victory. Now, not quite so much.
posted by acb at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Someone has tweet Jeremy Corbyn is now fave to be PM on betfair. Through the looking glass.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:29 PM on June 8, 2017
Mhairi Black holds Paisley. Which is nice.
posted by Grangousier at 5:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 5:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
@JGForsyth: Am hearing Tories now giving up on a majority as they see more of the London results
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:31 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Jinx!
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:31 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Mhairi Black holds Paisley. Which is nice.
That wee lassie has a bright future ahead of her. I wouldn't be surprised if she's First Minister in a few elections' time.
posted by acb at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
That wee lassie has a bright future ahead of her. I wouldn't be surprised if she's First Minister in a few elections' time.
posted by acb at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Mhairi Black is a champion.
posted by h00py at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by h00py at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Yay Mhairi! She is such an inspiring speaker. I am so glad she won.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
This is petty and superficial of me, but I think there should be a rule that you automatically lose the election if you aren't wearing a rosette.
posted by zachlipton at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 5:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Good for Mhairi. Absolutely deserved to hold onto that seat.
posted by garius at 5:34 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by garius at 5:34 PM on June 8, 2017
Seeing comments that if anything the exit poll was being kind to the Tories.... Oh god, the hope.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
So pleased about Mhairi!
(I'm taking my joy from things like this, and the look on Amber Rudd's face, and the evidence that all of Wales hasn't gone racist as fuck. I'm far too afraid to hope for more...)
posted by kalimac at 5:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
(I'm taking my joy from things like this, and the look on Amber Rudd's face, and the evidence that all of Wales hasn't gone racist as fuck. I'm far too afraid to hope for more...)
posted by kalimac at 5:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Seeing comments that if anything the exit poll was being kind to the Tories.... Oh god, the hope.
As long as Labour don't get an outright majority. If they have to make concessions to the Lib Dems and/or Greens, that will counterbalance their pro-Brexit positioning.
posted by acb at 5:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
As long as Labour don't get an outright majority. If they have to make concessions to the Lib Dems and/or Greens, that will counterbalance their pro-Brexit positioning.
posted by acb at 5:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?
posted by Catseye at 5:37 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Catseye at 5:37 PM on June 8, 2017
Glad Mhairi is back... fingers crossed for Angus Robertson too
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:38 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:38 PM on June 8, 2017
David Cameron, hold my pint!
posted by riverlife at 5:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by riverlife at 5:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Early results show my constituency of Stroud, currently held by Tories, is flipping to Labour.
posted by vacapinta at 5:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by vacapinta at 5:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
I would be so, so pleased if the Tories get toppled tonight. Not just so May's cynical ploy blows up in the party's face and the right wing media self-immolates, but more just to have some election results I can feel good about for a change. Kind of a long distance salve for wounds incurred last November.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?
Dunning-Kruger Effect?
posted by acb at 5:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Dunning-Kruger Effect?
posted by acb at 5:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?
Something something, respecting the will of the people voting to drive the country the country off a cliff.
This election wasn't supposed to be about vetoing Brexit. It was supposed to be an easy win for Tories to pick up seats so they could go through the disentanglement from Europe without people like UKIP, DUP, or some backbencher with delusions of grandeur fucking it all up.
posted by Talez at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Something something, respecting the will of the people voting to drive the country the country off a cliff.
This election wasn't supposed to be about vetoing Brexit. It was supposed to be an easy win for Tories to pick up seats so they could go through the disentanglement from Europe without people like UKIP, DUP, or some backbencher with delusions of grandeur fucking it all up.
posted by Talez at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
So this it what it looks like on MeFi when the better side is winning the vote.
posted by notyou at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by notyou at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [19 favorites]
Also, Corbyn will be the first Prime Minister since Callahan not to be beholden to Rupert Murdoch or the Daily Mail. It's payback time...
posted by acb at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?
posted by Artw at 5:42 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Artw at 5:42 PM on June 8, 2017
So this it what it looks like on MeFi when the better side is winning the vote.
GOING TOO FAR WITH THAT HOPE SHIT NOW.
posted by Artw at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [35 favorites]
GOING TOO FAR WITH THAT HOPE SHIT NOW.
posted by Artw at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [35 favorites]
Metafilter's own is re-elected. Tories got more from UKIP than he did, though. Congratulations, baggymp!
posted by ambrosen at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [30 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [30 favorites]
Is anyone else enjoying the sight of George Osborne moaning about how badly the Tories have done?
(e.g).
Also Metafilter's own has held his seat, after UKIP apparently didn't run a candidate.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
(e.g).
Also Metafilter's own has held his seat, after UKIP apparently didn't run a candidate.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Tory PMs calling major votes with the utter confidence it'll smooth their path to do what they want; coming unstuck.
Bit of a theme emerging.
posted by penguin pie at 5:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Bit of a theme emerging.
posted by penguin pie at 5:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Sounds like Greening has just managed to hold on to her seat in Putney.
Can't wait to see how Theresa May blames this election on Human Rights legislation.
posted by garius at 5:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Can't wait to see how Theresa May blames this election on Human Rights legislation.
posted by garius at 5:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
All this after UKIP kindly decided not to run candidates in several constituencies. Wow.
posted by maudlin at 5:45 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by maudlin at 5:45 PM on June 8, 2017
So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?
That's going to be an interesting story as it was not predicted at all. May be people wanting a Corbyn PM rather that just more SNP seats?
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:46 PM on June 8, 2017
That's going to be an interesting story as it was not predicted at all. May be people wanting a Corbyn PM rather that just more SNP seats?
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:46 PM on June 8, 2017
I have got my lucky nachos and my lucky wine and I am HERE until it's over, trying to use my best Cubs Fan hope. (Where you don't get too hoped up, but you get a little hopey. SOMETIMES THEY WIN.)
I can't believe what a clusterfuck this is for May, this is amazing.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
I can't believe what a clusterfuck this is for May, this is amazing.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
I love watching the Wales constituencies announce their returns when they say the numbers first in Welsh because you know the people cheering first are the ones who are fluent in Welsh. It's so heartening that it's not just a ceremonial language and that people really speak it in daily life. Also the Tories really expected to make some gains there and it seems like they're disappointed (Wrexham, Clwyd South).
posted by tractorfeed at 5:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 5:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Meanwhile, I'm down to my last can of tonic water. (The gin supply's holding up, though.)
posted by acb at 5:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned, but I fear Lord Haw-Haw might find himself a second career on my side of the pond as a Fox News host.
posted by duffell at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by duffell at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?
They're gaining because of SNP voters defecting to Tories - fecking Brexiters.
posted by Flitcraft at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
They're gaining because of SNP voters defecting to Tories - fecking Brexiters.
posted by Flitcraft at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
SWINGOMETER KLAXON!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Guess who's back
Back again
Marr is back
In Big Ben
Guess who's back Guess who's back Guess who's back
posted by threetwentytwo at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Back again
Marr is back
In Big Ben
Guess who's back Guess who's back Guess who's back
posted by threetwentytwo at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Oh dear god this is like the sixth BBC cgi I've seen and it's a "swingometer" meant to be *inside* Big Ben's tower.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by tractorfeed at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017
UKIP kindly decided not to run candidates in several constituencies.
I think it's more that they couldn't afford all the lost deposits. Only £500 a time, but think of all the other expenses, too.
posted by ambrosen at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I think it's more that they couldn't afford all the lost deposits. Only £500 a time, but think of all the other expenses, too.
posted by ambrosen at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Jeremy Vine auditioning for a remake of Knightmare.
posted by garius at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by garius at 5:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
I love watching the Wales constituencies announce their returns when they say the numbers first in Welsh because you know the people cheering first are the ones who are fluent in Welsh. It's so heartening that it's not just a ceremonial language and that people really speak it in daily life
English/Welsh speakers is a big political and cultural divide in Wales, from what I hear. There are, for example, two theatre and music scenes in Wales: an Anglophone one and a Welsh one, and the Welsh one offers tremendous networking opportunities for those who speak the language (which is not negotiable). Politically, Welsh speakers apparently voted strongly Remain, whereas English-speakers in Wales aligned with the left-behind voters of provincial England and voted Leave.
posted by acb at 5:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
English/Welsh speakers is a big political and cultural divide in Wales, from what I hear. There are, for example, two theatre and music scenes in Wales: an Anglophone one and a Welsh one, and the Welsh one offers tremendous networking opportunities for those who speak the language (which is not negotiable). Politically, Welsh speakers apparently voted strongly Remain, whereas English-speakers in Wales aligned with the left-behind voters of provincial England and voted Leave.
posted by acb at 5:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Yes, please don't let my schadenfreude at Tory/Conservative/fascist/Murdoch own-goals detract from the fact that they are already desperately spinning up sugar-and-salt-coated propaganda about how this only further shows that the masses can't be trusted to actually know what they want and so must be muscled into proper shape whatever the (inevitably puni-fuckin-tive) means.
posted by riverlife at 5:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by riverlife at 5:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
10% swing from Tories to Labour in Putney (Tories still held though). That could be huge if replicates in more areas of London.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 5:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned, but I fear Lord Haw-Haw might find himself a second career on my side of the pond as a Fox News host.
Or perhaps on RT, live from Moscow. And carefully researching extradition treaties before he travels abroad.
posted by acb at 5:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Or perhaps on RT, live from Moscow. And carefully researching extradition treaties before he travels abroad.
posted by acb at 5:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Here's an illustrative video on the UKIP question - it's an interview with a former UKIP voter who has moved to Labour.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 5:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
"[Former Welsh secretary Peter] Hain said May had campaigned negatively while Corbyn had given hope, especially to young people, on the NHS, housing, care for the elderly." - Guardian liveblog.
Interesting, an English colleague of mine said the same thing to me this morning.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Interesting, an English colleague of mine said the same thing to me this morning.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Can someone explain the Northern Ireland parties and what's good for Labour vs. Tories? I'm up on my Plaid Cymru and my SNP, but in NI I'm lost.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:55 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:55 PM on June 8, 2017
Jeremy Corbyn is now odds-on favourite to become next prime minister GET HYPE!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
WTF is up with the Tory win in Angus? Is that some traditionally tory-blighted area?
posted by Artw at 5:56 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Artw at 5:56 PM on June 8, 2017
Philip Davies gone in Shipley!
posted by garius at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by garius at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Philip Davies gone in Shipley!
To Labour, not the WEP, but that's a minor detail. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
posted by acb at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
To Labour, not the WEP, but that's a minor detail. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
posted by acb at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Jeremy Corbyn is now odds-on favourite to become next prime minister
THE ABSOLUTE BOY!
posted by indubitable at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
THE ABSOLUTE BOY!
posted by indubitable at 6:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Oh COME ON. Now Farage is on my TV?!
posted by garius at 6:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by garius at 6:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Fuck me why is Farrage on the BBC again. Maybe we can speak to a party that has some fucking MPs?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
WTF is up with the Tory win in Angus? Is that some traditionally tory-blighted area?
Much of Scotland was Tory territory before Thatcher. (Something to do with Calvinism perhaps?) Scotland only became the notional rusted-on socialist-utopia-in-waiting it is today after Thatcher's Poll Tax in the late 80s.
posted by acb at 6:02 PM on June 8, 2017
Much of Scotland was Tory territory before Thatcher. (Something to do with Calvinism perhaps?) Scotland only became the notional rusted-on socialist-utopia-in-waiting it is today after Thatcher's Poll Tax in the late 80s.
posted by acb at 6:02 PM on June 8, 2017
I think there's going to be a lot of Tory gains in Scotland. Perth and North Perthshire's gone to a recount with the SNP previous MP (and Runrig keyboard player) Pete Wishart 36 votes ahead on the first counting.
posted by ambrosen at 6:03 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by ambrosen at 6:03 PM on June 8, 2017
Yay for Battersea! Incumbent defeated with a 10% swing to Labour
posted by tractorfeed at 6:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 6:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Big swing in Battersea, Lab gain from Con.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
God I'm proud to be a Londoner.
posted by garius at 6:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by garius at 6:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Fucking hell a black woman just won for Labour, to be ignored by the BBC in favour of Fargle (elections won: Absolute zero)
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned
Nicely done with tempting fate. He's on the telly now talking about coming back to UK politics.
Labour just took Battersea from the Conservatives with a 10% swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017
Nicely done with tempting fate. He's on the telly now talking about coming back to UK politics.
Labour just took Battersea from the Conservatives with a 10% swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017
Battersea - first tory minister gone. Hopefully not the first.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:05 PM on June 8, 2017
Oh yes I forgot we all know how fuckin irrelevant Fargle is
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:06 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:06 PM on June 8, 2017
Battersea - first tory minister gone. Hopefully not the first.
Wasn't Vale of Clwyd a Labour gain from Conservatives?
posted by badmoonrising at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017
Wasn't Vale of Clwyd a Labour gain from Conservatives?
posted by badmoonrising at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017
Ok, I take it back. Don't go to bed. You don't want to miss this.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017
My god. The exit poll really just maybe might be real life.
posted by zachlipton at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 6:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Wasn't Vale of Clwyd a Labour gain from Conservatives?
It was, but the Conservative MP there wasn't a minister in the cabinet.
posted by dng at 6:09 PM on June 8, 2017
It was, but the Conservative MP there wasn't a minister in the cabinet.
posted by dng at 6:09 PM on June 8, 2017
Repolishing my crystal ball and taking back early prediction re SNP... the're gonna get smashed.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017
"the witching hour is come, and so Nigel Farage manifests in a damp, miasmic cloud of sharts on my screen" - Warren Ellis
posted by garius at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by garius at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Oh man, I want to catch David Mitchell's take on this, but I can't view the C4 stream from the US.
Is this how British mefites feel like, the rest of the time? Goddamn shit
posted by duffell at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Is this how British mefites feel like, the rest of the time? Goddamn shit
posted by duffell at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Harry Potter Retire Bruv
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Two more gains for Labour: Stockton South (was Con) and Leeds West (was LD).
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017
This is getting my hopes up. I'm starting to become cautiously optimistic that this won't be a car crash.
posted by Dysk at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 6:10 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Oh man, I want to catch David Mitchell's take on this, but I can't view the C4 stream from the US.
I feel much the same but I can't fucking stand Jeremy Paxman (who's also on C4 right now) so am also unable to watch.
posted by penguin pie at 6:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
I feel much the same but I can't fucking stand Jeremy Paxman (who's also on C4 right now) so am also unable to watch.
posted by penguin pie at 6:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
From my faraway perspective I'm thinking the Trump Universal Raw Disgust (TURD) factor may be responsible for the Labor surge. Possibly a combination of his World Tour and Khan tweets. He helped out in France.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Someone should do a song to the tune of OMD's Enola Gay:
“Theresa May,
Why did you have to call a poll today?
Oh, oh, Theresa May,
You fought dirty but you lost anyway”
(monosynth twiddling)
posted by acb at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
“Theresa May,
Why did you have to call a poll today?
Oh, oh, Theresa May,
You fought dirty but you lost anyway”
(monosynth twiddling)
posted by acb at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
UK elections: Thank you for helping temper the trauma of seeing RED across a map and tall columns. The opposite of last November.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I feel much the same but I can't fucking stand Jeremy Paxman (who's also on C4 right now) so am also unable to watch
Also, Julia Hartley-Brewer, the Poundshop Katie Hopkins. no thanks.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Also, Julia Hartley-Brewer, the Poundshop Katie Hopkins. no thanks.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Hugs everyone...I'm watching from the US biting my nails and hoping.
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
From my faraway perspective I'm thinking the Trump Universal Raw Disgust (TURD) factor may be responsible for the Labor surge.
I've been thinking that but didn't want to make a UK election about the USA. So I'll just maybe secretly hope its true. We may self-immolate but perhaps others can learn from it.
posted by Justinian at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I've been thinking that but didn't want to make a UK election about the USA. So I'll just maybe secretly hope its true. We may self-immolate but perhaps others can learn from it.
posted by Justinian at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
For anyone who didn't know, Julia Hartley-Brewer, currently on c4, is an aspirant Katie Hopkins and Utterly The Worst.
posted by ominous_paws at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by ominous_paws at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
What's the quote about your fate may be to be an tragic example to others? If the US is currently being that to the rest of the world, well at least there was *something* good to be had from our shitshow of an election.
posted by tavella at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tavella at 6:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Jinx!
posted by ominous_paws at 6:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ominous_paws at 6:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Guys, we had fucking Brexit, we didn't need President Cheeto to warn us.
posted by penguin pie at 6:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [42 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 6:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [42 favorites]
That thing where they pass ballot boxes like it's a bucket line is super exciting. Wish we could that here.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:18 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:18 PM on June 8, 2017
BBC claiming Tories are now not expecting to outperform the exit polls. Gosh.
posted by doop at 6:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by doop at 6:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Tories take an SNP seat in Moray.
posted by tractorfeed at 6:19 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by tractorfeed at 6:19 PM on June 8, 2017
I gotta tingle in my Pringle. Folks,
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017
Cons take Moray... Angus Robertson (SNP Dep Leader) gone.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017
If you want to know what it's like over here this American leftist currently in Canada bought a round for all the kitchen and dining room workers of this restaurant.
SHOTS FOR SOCIALISM.
posted by The Whelk at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [33 favorites]
SHOTS FOR SOCIALISM.
posted by The Whelk at 6:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [33 favorites]
Tories just took Angus Robertson's Morey SNP seat. That's the leader of the SNP in Westminster gone on a 15% swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:21 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 6:21 PM on June 8, 2017
Yeah, I had an American friend staying with me during Brexit and as she left, we were both like 'gosh, hope the USA learns from this before the election!'
Sometimes things happen in the world that have nothing to do with America! Very few people here will have thought about Trump as part of voting in this election.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
Sometimes things happen in the world that have nothing to do with America! Very few people here will have thought about Trump as part of voting in this election.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [13 favorites]
Cons take Murray... Angus Robertson (SNP Dep Leader) gone.
I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.
posted by dng at 6:22 PM on June 8, 2017
I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.
posted by dng at 6:22 PM on June 8, 2017
Kind of tired, kind of want to stay up to see Hastings if Amber Rudd goes, and Maidenhead just to see May's face.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 6:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Scottish Independence vote/result not looking as likely as it once did now
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:23 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:23 PM on June 8, 2017
Hastings on third recount
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:24 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:24 PM on June 8, 2017
Amber Rudd refusing to give up until she finds the person with the right hashtags.
posted by garius at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by garius at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Corbyn's high 5 doesn't seem to have gone so well [video]
posted by zachlipton at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by zachlipton at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
Also, what effects will the SNP's losses have on their strategy of pushing to remain in the single market and for independence otherwise. I'm guessing (from this and other sources) that the Scottish electorate's enthusiasm for independence has waned, and it's not likely to happen any time soon. Will the SNP change its strategy? (I imagine it has to do something to avoid being subsumed by the Tory/Labour duopoly or turned into a weird little regional minor party.)
posted by acb at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by acb at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.
All I can see is that it's "no thanks" on Indy Ref 2.
BBC forecast - 322 Tory seats.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
All I can see is that it's "no thanks" on Indy Ref 2.
BBC forecast - 322 Tory seats.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:25 PM on June 8, 2017
They're just talking about SNP's losses on C4. A lot of people have turned against a 2nd independence referrendum, and the SNP were very strongly in favour of one. They've also been in power for 10 years and have not performed as well as people want on stuff like schools and healthcare (this is me trying to paraphrase the C4 guy).
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017
Probably a repeat, but funny nonetheless:
Is it a UK parliamentary constituency or a Game of Thrones location?
"Maidstone and The Weald" <3 <3 <3
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017
Is it a UK parliamentary constituency or a Game of Thrones location?
"Maidstone and The Weald" <3 <3 <3
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017
So ... former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour, and former SNP voters are primarily swinging to the Tories?
I really do not understand my fellow humans.
posted by kyrademon at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
I really do not understand my fellow humans.
posted by kyrademon at 6:26 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
Is it a UK parliamentary constituency or a Game of Thrones location?
<accent type="American">“I love you Brits! You're so quaint!”</accent>
posted by acb at 6:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
<accent type="American">“I love you Brits! You're so quaint!”</accent>
posted by acb at 6:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales? A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?
posted by Justinian at 6:27 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Justinian at 6:27 PM on June 8, 2017
I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.
A no on Indyref2, a yes on Brexit, an assumption that the SNP would wipe the board so a protest vote was appropriate, Ruth Davidson's personal popularity. Stack 'em up (unfortunately).
posted by penguin pie at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A no on Indyref2, a yes on Brexit, an assumption that the SNP would wipe the board so a protest vote was appropriate, Ruth Davidson's personal popularity. Stack 'em up (unfortunately).
posted by penguin pie at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour,
These are former Labour voters who swung to UKIP in the first place, remember. They wanted Brexit, they got Brexit, who needs UKIP any more?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017
These are former Labour voters who swung to UKIP in the first place, remember. They wanted Brexit, they got Brexit, who needs UKIP any more?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017
BBC forecast - 322 Tory seats.
So, a workable majority with Ulster unionists in play?
posted by acb at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017
So, a workable majority with Ulster unionists in play?
posted by acb at 6:28 PM on June 8, 2017
What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales? A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?
Plaid Cymru
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Plaid Cymru
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
> "What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales?"
Plaid Cymru.
> "A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?"
Yes.
posted by kyrademon at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Plaid Cymru.
> "A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?"
Yes.
posted by kyrademon at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
so should we expect a surge of conservative seats at some point that surpasses the labour/SNP seats?
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Thanks, kyrademon. I know some about Scottish politics but very little about Welsh.
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on June 8, 2017
So I'm seeing that the Tories are expected to pick up about 320 seats on Twitter, which wouldn't be enough for an outright majority except that Sinn Fein are doing well in Northern Ireland and if they win the election, they refuse to swear an Oath to the Queen or take their seats. So the amount needed for a majority might be somewhere around 322.
I said, once the exit polls came in, that May was still likely for PM but this has fatally wounded her. Probably not enough to stop Brexit, but certainly there's more career behind her than in front of her at this point.
posted by Merus at 6:31 PM on June 8, 2017
I said, once the exit polls came in, that May was still likely for PM but this has fatally wounded her. Probably not enough to stop Brexit, but certainly there's more career behind her than in front of her at this point.
posted by Merus at 6:31 PM on June 8, 2017
More like envy. My congressional district is Virginia-08. Inspiring it is not.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:32 PM on June 8, 2017
Mod note: Folks, I know we have a lot of non-UK users in here, but please, if you're making a comment that is about you-and-not-the-subject, or asking a basic question, consider skipping it (and googling, etc.) This is a site with many, many opportunities for US folks to center the conversation on themselves, and this shouldn't be one of them.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [55 favorites]
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [55 favorites]
so should we expect a surge of conservative seats at some point that surpasses the labour/SNP seats?
A lot of the rural Tory safe seats wont declare until tomorrow
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
A lot of the rural Tory safe seats wont declare until tomorrow
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Justine Greening claiming it's always tough in Putney. She had a 10k majority in 2015, that's down to about 1k.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:33 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 6:33 PM on June 8, 2017
Really depressed about Angus Robertson losing his seat. Some really good people being voted out. Possibly Farron and Clegg too. This all feels more chaotic than any kind of coordinated swing to the left.
posted by vacapinta at 6:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by vacapinta at 6:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Ignorant American question: could these SNP losses be bad enough to counterbalance the Tories' losses and wind up giving May a majority after all?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:36 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:36 PM on June 8, 2017
Sometimes things happen in the world that have nothing to do with America! Very few people here will have thought about Trump as part of voting in this election.
I dunno -- May's utter lack of leadership when Trump went after Khan after the London Bridge attacks may have pushed some voters over into the "anyone but May" camp. That was about as clear a confirmation of Macron's "UK as a vassal state, a junior partner to the US" observation as it could get.
posted by effbot at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I dunno -- May's utter lack of leadership when Trump went after Khan after the London Bridge attacks may have pushed some voters over into the "anyone but May" camp. That was about as clear a confirmation of Macron's "UK as a vassal state, a junior partner to the US" observation as it could get.
posted by effbot at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Ignorant American question: could these SNP losses be bad enough to counterbalance the Tories' losses and wind up giving May a majority after all?
Yup.
The night is very, very young.
posted by garius at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yup.
The night is very, very young.
posted by garius at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
kyrademon: So ... former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour, and former SNP voters are primarily swinging to the Tories?
I really do not understand my fellow humans.
In The True Believer, Hoffer pointed out that Communists and Nazis were each other's best recruits in Weimar Germany. See also: Former French Communists voting for Le Pen. There's a large block of people in many elections who will vote for whoever they think is most likely to stick it to the Establishment. Precisely how the Establishment gets enstickened is a lesser concern for those voters, so long as some sort of stick is applied.
posted by clawsoon at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
I really do not understand my fellow humans.
In The True Believer, Hoffer pointed out that Communists and Nazis were each other's best recruits in Weimar Germany. See also: Former French Communists voting for Le Pen. There's a large block of people in many elections who will vote for whoever they think is most likely to stick it to the Establishment. Precisely how the Establishment gets enstickened is a lesser concern for those voters, so long as some sort of stick is applied.
posted by clawsoon at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Both Scottish Labour and the Tories urged people to vote tactically against the SNP... this looks to have paid dividends.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017
David Nuttall is out, and I couldn't be happier about it, even if they're now predicting a narrow Tory government. Good riddance to that essence of unreconstruction.
A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?
posted by Errant at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?
posted by Errant at 6:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
*silent visceral screaming*
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 6:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 6:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
And now on non-preview, I see that's largely been answered, thanks.
posted by Errant at 6:38 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Errant at 6:38 PM on June 8, 2017
merus: So I'm seeing that the Tories are expected to pick up about 320 seats on Twitter
So now Twitter gets seats, too? This really is a dystopian fantasy.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
So now Twitter gets seats, too? This really is a dystopian fantasy.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Be very ironic if the Tory gains in Scotland save them
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017
A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?
Definitely not expected. They had such a landslide last time that a bit of a swing away wouldn't have been a huge surprise, but nothing on this scale.
posted by penguin pie at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Definitely not expected. They had such a landslide last time that a bit of a swing away wouldn't have been a huge surprise, but nothing on this scale.
posted by penguin pie at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah, vacapinta, I think Clegg's very likely gone, and that's sad. Not heard about Farron. Even though it looks like we're getting a Lib Dem in Bath to replace our Tory, it looks as though the Lib Dems are very much the victims of circumstance. In Wells, rumours are that Labour might have split their vote, and the Tory will get in. Having driven through most of Somerset on Sunday, I did see more orange than blue in all the constituencies I was in, but Wells was the bluest (and a few Labour signs).
posted by ambrosen at 6:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 6:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?
They were expected to lose a few seats, may be quite a few, but not this bad
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:41 PM on June 8, 2017
They were expected to lose a few seats, may be quite a few, but not this bad
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:41 PM on June 8, 2017
Does anyone know if these SNP->Tory swings consistent with the exit poll results? Because they're increasingly terrifying to my distant eyes.
posted by zachlipton at 6:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 6:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Be very ironic if the Tory gains in Scotland save them
I'm pretty sure Scotland was supposed to give power to the tories by leaving the union, not by voting for them.
posted by effbot at 6:42 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm pretty sure Scotland was supposed to give power to the tories by leaving the union, not by voting for them.
posted by effbot at 6:42 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
penguin pie, that's my feeling too. With this big youth turnout, I would have expected them to consolidate, but tactical voting does seem to have had its effect.
posted by Errant at 6:42 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Errant at 6:42 PM on June 8, 2017
I dunno -- May's utter lack of leadership when Trump went after Khan after the London Bridge attacks may have pushed some voters over into the "anyone but May" camp. That was about as clear a confirmation of Macron's "UK as a vassal state, a junior partner to the US" observation as it could get.
Depends on your group and concerns I'd guess - I volunteer in very deprived areas and the people I speak with there are much more motivated by 'continuing to have access to free healthcare' and 'the possibility of jobs that pay enough to live on' and 'not having to use food banks' than 'Theresa May didn't have a go about something Trump said on Twitter'. But they're not everyone who votes - these sorts of perceptions are always going to be subject to the kind of people you spend time with!
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Depends on your group and concerns I'd guess - I volunteer in very deprived areas and the people I speak with there are much more motivated by 'continuing to have access to free healthcare' and 'the possibility of jobs that pay enough to live on' and 'not having to use food banks' than 'Theresa May didn't have a go about something Trump said on Twitter'. But they're not everyone who votes - these sorts of perceptions are always going to be subject to the kind of people you spend time with!
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
I think that a lot of the Tory losses in England will be due to devolved matters, especially the NHS. With the SNP being stuck to what Westminster allocates for funding their policies, they'll have quite possibly been delivering poorer services, and will be the face of the government in many ways more than Westminster is. I think that must be causing a lot of their vote losses.
As well as the fact that in this period of uncertainty, IndyRef2 seems far too scary.
posted by ambrosen at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017
As well as the fact that in this period of uncertainty, IndyRef2 seems far too scary.
posted by ambrosen at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017
In a lot of SNP seats now going/leaning CON, the other two unionist parties Labour and LDs - were massively failing down their campaigns. Same for other seats SNP were vulnerable. Depending on who you believe, this is either the result of limited resources or a deliberate decision to put forward paper candidates so the anti-SNP vote wouldn't be split.
Long story short, it's a different election in Scotland. But don't blame us if the Tories get in due to Lab/LD decision that they're preferable to SNP.
posted by Catseye at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Long story short, it's a different election in Scotland. But don't blame us if the Tories get in due to Lab/LD decision that they're preferable to SNP.
posted by Catseye at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sky News updated forecast:
They expect the Tories to get between 308 and 328 seats. Their central forecast is 318posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:43 PM on June 8, 2017
"We can't win, because we don't play their game."
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:44 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:44 PM on June 8, 2017
Fucking FPTP.
posted by Artw at 6:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Recount at Canterbury.... high number of students but it's been tory for 150 years.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:46 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:46 PM on June 8, 2017
I think Clegg's very likely gone, and that's sad. Not heard about Farron.
Botting (Sky News): Bundle recount in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Reports there may be as little as 300 votes between @timfarron and conservative rival #Vote2017
posted by effbot at 6:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Botting (Sky News): Bundle recount in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Reports there may be as little as 300 votes between @timfarron and conservative rival #Vote2017
posted by effbot at 6:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Bye bye Nick Clegg.
posted by zachlipton at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by zachlipton at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017
Nick Clegg just lost his seat to Labour
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017
Clegg looks like he's fighting back tears after losing Sheffield Hallam. That's a real loss to Parliament.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I can't help but giggle at Nick Clegg's face right now. Better luck next career.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Well I think the night is over. Nowhere near enough are coming in from the Tory marginal. Tories will caucus with DUP to form government and get through the Queen's Speech.
Then who knows what the fuck happens.
posted by Talez at 6:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Then who knows what the fuck happens.
posted by Talez at 6:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
stupid american question: is May's own seat safe?
posted by murphy slaw at 6:48 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by murphy slaw at 6:48 PM on June 8, 2017
Here are the counts for Stroud. Carmichael was our Tory MP:
#Stroud result: Drew (Lab) 29994 Carmichael 29307 Wilkinson (LD) 2053 Lunnon (Grn) 1423 Gogerly (Ukip) 1039
posted by vacapinta at 6:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
#Stroud result: Drew (Lab) 29994 Carmichael 29307 Wilkinson (LD) 2053 Lunnon (Grn) 1423 Gogerly (Ukip) 1039
posted by vacapinta at 6:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Yes May's seat is safe. But her position in the party as PM is very much in doubt.
posted by tractorfeed at 6:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 6:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Thank you so much to those upthread who mentioned that David Mitchell was on C4.
posted by figurant at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by figurant at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017
stupid american question: is May's own seat safe?
Stupid American answer: Her riding was created in the last election, so there isn't a lot of history based on that. However, the ridings that used to be in that area have voted Tory for at least ~150 years. It's safe.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Stupid American answer: Her riding was created in the last election, so there isn't a lot of history based on that. However, the ridings that used to be in that area have voted Tory for at least ~150 years. It's safe.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
There's a real risk Boris Johnson might become prime minister after this.
posted by flippant at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by flippant at 6:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
VINCE CABLE IS BACK THOUGH.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 6:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Whoop whoop. Stella blitzes it again.
Walthamstow:
Lab: 80.5% (+11.7)
Con: 14.1% (+0.7)
LDem: 2.9% (-1.1)
Grn: 2.5% (-3.9)
posted by garius at 6:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Walthamstow:
Lab: 80.5% (+11.7)
Con: 14.1% (+0.7)
LDem: 2.9% (-1.1)
Grn: 2.5% (-3.9)
posted by garius at 6:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I can't help but giggle at Nick Clegg's face right now.
If you don't even know that the word for a voting region is constituency, you probably lack the nuance to understand that Nick Clegg is felt by many to be a genuine, kind and thoughtful person who was shafted by circumstance and the Tories. No need for snideness unless it's well informed snideness.
posted by ambrosen at 6:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [27 favorites]
If you don't even know that the word for a voting region is constituency, you probably lack the nuance to understand that Nick Clegg is felt by many to be a genuine, kind and thoughtful person who was shafted by circumstance and the Tories. No need for snideness unless it's well informed snideness.
posted by ambrosen at 6:57 PM on June 8, 2017 [27 favorites]
Glasgow North East just went to Labour from SNP by 300 votes.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:58 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 6:58 PM on June 8, 2017
This is slightly off topic, but I really appreciate that UK ballots are reported once the entire riding is fully counted. In Canada, the results from individual polling sites are broadcast nationally as soon as they report. This leads to seats where, eg. the NDP candidate for Calgary Centre is in the lead, for 45 minutes, with 1% of polls reporting.
It's not the end of the world, but it's quite aggravating.
posted by figurant at 7:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
It's not the end of the world, but it's quite aggravating.
posted by figurant at 7:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
I have woken up (briefly I hope) to what appears to be a catastrophic night for May, a very bad night for the Tories, and...well...for everyone else, who knows? It looks like the Tories will still be able to govern, just about, but beyond that, it's not really clear what the hell is going to happen - or really even what is happening. The only interpretation that seems to add up to my sleep addled brain is that (May's terrible campaigning and Corbyn's decent performance aside) this election is shaped by people's responses to a single issue (Brexit) in a way that is entirely unprecedented in British politics - but that responses to Brexit are massively more complex and disparate than most of us (certainly me) were really accounting for. Hence certain subgroups in certain constituencies have swung in ways that were very difficult to poll for on a national level.
This, much more than Brexit (which was more a failure of interpretation than polling itself), represents a huge polling failure, but not of the ordinary sort, where better overall modelling would be required. There appears to be an emerging systemic complexity in British politics that was, I suspect, almost impossible to poll for using standard methods. My parents have been campaigning in South East Cornwall (having cut short their yachting around Spain to come back and sleep on the floor of my late grandfather's currently empty house and roam the lanes canvasing anything that stands still - can't fault their dedication), and my dad says that, in 40 years of campaigning, this is the most confused and uncertain he's ever seen an electorate. It seems his anecdotal observation was worth as much as any of the polls, in this case. As such then, even at this point in the night, we're not sure at all what the hell Parliament will look like by tomorrow evening.
This is going to take a lot of thinking about. And we're going to need to work out what to do next. There are real opportunities here to make the next decade a less horrifying one than I was pretty much convinced it would be, but exactly how best to proceed is almost entirely unclear to me.
But what do I know? The answer, comrades, is quite clearly 'fuck all'.
posted by howfar at 7:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
This, much more than Brexit (which was more a failure of interpretation than polling itself), represents a huge polling failure, but not of the ordinary sort, where better overall modelling would be required. There appears to be an emerging systemic complexity in British politics that was, I suspect, almost impossible to poll for using standard methods. My parents have been campaigning in South East Cornwall (having cut short their yachting around Spain to come back and sleep on the floor of my late grandfather's currently empty house and roam the lanes canvasing anything that stands still - can't fault their dedication), and my dad says that, in 40 years of campaigning, this is the most confused and uncertain he's ever seen an electorate. It seems his anecdotal observation was worth as much as any of the polls, in this case. As such then, even at this point in the night, we're not sure at all what the hell Parliament will look like by tomorrow evening.
This is going to take a lot of thinking about. And we're going to need to work out what to do next. There are real opportunities here to make the next decade a less horrifying one than I was pretty much convinced it would be, but exactly how best to proceed is almost entirely unclear to me.
But what do I know? The answer, comrades, is quite clearly 'fuck all'.
posted by howfar at 7:02 PM on June 8, 2017 [17 favorites]
This is slightly off topic, but I really appreciate that UK ballots are reported once the entire riding is fully counted.
*Through clenched teeth* It's not a riding, it's a constituency.
posted by penguin pie at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
*Through clenched teeth* It's not a riding, it's a constituency.
posted by penguin pie at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
Ben Gummer has lost his seat in Ipswich!
posted by paduasoy at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by paduasoy at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Ok, I don't want to get into a whole thing, but its my view that Clegg assisted the Tories, and did very little to stop the Tories outright attack on the disabled and the poor. You might disagree with that, but please don't suggest that others "lack nuance" for not thinking that Clegg could have done a hell a lot more than he did.
posted by threetwentytwo at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
posted by threetwentytwo at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [16 favorites]
Big fan of Jess. Hopefully her rather horrible LD opponent loses bigly.
Birmingham, Yardley:
Lab: 57.1% (+15.4)
Con: 19.8% (+5.8)
LDem: 17.9% (-7.7)
UKIP: 4.3% (-11.8)
Grn: 0.6% (-1.1)
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Birmingham, Yardley:
Lab: 57.1% (+15.4)
Con: 19.8% (+5.8)
LDem: 17.9% (-7.7)
UKIP: 4.3% (-11.8)
Grn: 0.6% (-1.1)
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yay, so happy Labour swept Wirral, hanging on to the two marginals.
posted by skybluepink at 7:06 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 7:06 PM on June 8, 2017
Communist League got 7 votes in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 7:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
There's a real risk Boris Johnson might become prime minister after this.
My first reaction to this: At least then his insufferable bickering from the sidelines will stop, so maybe that's not the worst outcome.
But then I thought of Trump...
posted by sour cream at 7:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
My first reaction to this: At least then his insufferable bickering from the sidelines will stop, so maybe that's not the worst outcome.
But then I thought of Trump...
posted by sour cream at 7:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
penguin pie: *Through clenched teeth* It's not a riding, it's a constituency.
What's that? Every shire gets a seat?
Sorry, don't mean to cause you dental problems.
posted by clawsoon at 7:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
What's that? Every shire gets a seat?
Sorry, don't mean to cause you dental problems.
posted by clawsoon at 7:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
So constituencies are in the 60,000 to 85,000 range mostly, so 700 voters is about 1%. Helps me to see how big or small a swing we're talking. Winning by 1500 votes is pretty respectable at probably 2%. Winning by 300 votes is probably a 0.5% margin.
The average size of a Congressional constituency in the US is 700,000ish, so a factor of 10 difference if your mind is tuned to US results.
I don't know who this guy behind Corbyn who is dressed as the Mad Hatter is, but I like the cut of his jib. (Also, good shade, Corbyn!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:10 PM on June 8, 2017
The average size of a Congressional constituency in the US is 700,000ish, so a factor of 10 difference if your mind is tuned to US results.
I don't know who this guy behind Corbyn who is dressed as the Mad Hatter is, but I like the cut of his jib. (Also, good shade, Corbyn!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:10 PM on June 8, 2017
The Lib Dems take Bath from the Tories. I like that town.
posted by vacapinta at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by vacapinta at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
threetwentytwo, I have no problem at all with someone who lives in Britain celebrating Clegg's loss*. But someone who's not in Britain, like the person I was responding to? Yep, they're playing with our country like it's sportsball.
*actually, I do feel a pang of pain about it, but I totally respect and understand why you would.
posted by ambrosen at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
*actually, I do feel a pang of pain about it, but I totally respect and understand why you would.
posted by ambrosen at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
That's the Official Monster Raving Loony candidate, Eyebrows.
posted by skybluepink at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 7:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
At this level of SNP loss, is Sturgeon safe as party leader?
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on June 8, 2017
The Lib Dems take Bath from the Tories. I like that towncity[😉].
Damn, I was meaning to watch that get streamed. Fuck Ben Howlett for lying to my face on Twitter in January, and his unrepentant support of all the local council cuts.
posted by ambrosen at 7:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Damn, I was meaning to watch that get streamed. Fuck Ben Howlett for lying to my face on Twitter in January, and his unrepentant support of all the local council cuts.
posted by ambrosen at 7:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
At this level of SNP loss, is Sturgeon safe as party leader?
Yes... they'll still be the majority in Scotland and she's the leader in The Scottish Parliament
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Yes... they'll still be the majority in Scotland and she's the leader in The Scottish Parliament
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Boris is awful, but no Trump. Trump is next level evil and stupid.
posted by Artw at 7:16 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Artw at 7:16 PM on June 8, 2017
Should we maybe have two threads, one where people in Britain can talk about the election with each other, and another where we can take it turns to explain it to people not in Britain?
posted by penguin pie at 7:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 7:16 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Someone should make an FPP about them, but I'd just like to mention their former leader Catmando, "the only cat ever to have been named leader of a political party. [citation needed]"
posted by effbot at 7:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Someone should make an FPP about them, but I'd just like to mention their former leader Catmando, "the only cat ever to have been named leader of a political party. [citation needed]"
posted by effbot at 7:17 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Canterbury may have gone to Labour, Tories held it since 1918.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:17 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 7:17 PM on June 8, 2017
LORD BUCKETHEAD KLAXON
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
penguin pie I regret I only have one favourite to give that comment but I gave it as quickly as I could.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
ambrosen: Coming from an American like myself (but one who lives in the UK!), the word 'town' is affectionate. Think 'New York, New York, what a wonderful town!'
Also gutted by the loss of Clegg who, if you have been following him recently, has been a great advocate of reason, of moderation, in these chaotic times. And I'll continue to read and enjoy his articles in the New European.
posted by vacapinta at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Also gutted by the loss of Clegg who, if you have been following him recently, has been a great advocate of reason, of moderation, in these chaotic times. And I'll continue to read and enjoy his articles in the New European.
posted by vacapinta at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Hee, May's on stage, waiting to be reelected in her very safe seat, looking like she's sucking on a lemon...
posted by skybluepink at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 7:20 PM on June 8, 2017
Maidenhead, important candidates:
Lord Buckethead - 249
Howling Lord Haupe - 119
Animal Welfare - 282
Elmo - 3
Some woman called May won though.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Lord Buckethead - 249
Howling Lord Haupe - 119
Animal Welfare - 282
Elmo - 3
Some woman called May won though.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Sorry, I'll just show myself out, then.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Chrysostom at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
They've had an 'interesting' history... remember this Jon Ronson story.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
They've had an 'interesting' history... remember this Jon Ronson story.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Good on you Bedford for going Lab!
(Though it looks like their history isn't quite as solid blue as I would guess from the rest of Bedfordshire.)
posted by Artw at 7:22 PM on June 8, 2017
(Though it looks like their history isn't quite as solid blue as I would guess from the rest of Bedfordshire.)
posted by Artw at 7:22 PM on June 8, 2017
Bobby Smith, Give Me Back Elmo... 3 votes
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:22 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:22 PM on June 8, 2017
So the moral of this story seems to be "do not call early elections in the UK, get involved in a land war in Asia or go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"
posted by Annika Cicada at 7:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Annika Cicada at 7:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
vacapinta, I hadn't taken offence at all. I'm from Birmingham, so even though I've been in Bath 10 years I do quite often get that "wow, everything's so small" feeling. Cosy more often than twee, thankfully.
posted by ambrosen at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by ambrosen at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017
Some stirring oratory from Theresa May here.
posted by dng at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by dng at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Hahahahahahaha! She's still going on about stability. Does she not get how badly she's fucked up, and how unstable she has made it?
posted by MattWPBS at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 7:24 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Wow, May sounds terrible, like she's barely holding it together.
posted by skybluepink at 7:25 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 7:25 PM on June 8, 2017
Thank you Mr Finger. Biggest laugh of the night.
posted by rongorongo at 7:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 7:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Wow, May sounds terrible, like she's barely holding it together.
Yeah, I think she was expecting something a bit different tonight...
posted by badmoonrising at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
Yeah, I think she was expecting something a bit different tonight...
posted by badmoonrising at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
New BBC forecast
318 Conservative MPs.
32 SNP
11 Lib Dem
3 Plaid
1 Green
Tim Farron retains seat.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
318 Conservative MPs.
32 SNP
11 Lib Dem
3 Plaid
1 Green
Tim Farron retains seat.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
That Elmo dude is an anti-Feminist MRA "Father's rights" activist.
posted by tractorfeed at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by tractorfeed at 7:28 PM on June 8, 2017
I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Lib Dems take Eastbourne from Conservatives.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Frankly, Elmo always struck me as dim and patronising
posted by Merus at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Merus at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Also gutted by the loss of Clegg who, if you have been following him recently, has been a great advocate of reason, of moderation, in these chaotic times. And I'll continue to read and enjoy his articles in the New European.
I haven't been following him recently, however I do keep in touch with my graduates, who now have an average debt of £40k when they finish their programmes.
posted by biffa at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
I haven't been following him recently, however I do keep in touch with my graduates, who now have an average debt of £40k when they finish their programmes.
posted by biffa at 7:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [26 favorites]
New BBC forecast is:
318 Conservative
267 Labour
32 SNP
11 LD
3 PC
1 Green
18 Other
Pushes it slightly better for the Tories. They barely get over the line at 327 if they join up with the DUP.
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on June 8, 2017
318 Conservative
267 Labour
32 SNP
11 LD
3 PC
1 Green
18 Other
Pushes it slightly better for the Tories. They barely get over the line at 327 if they join up with the DUP.
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on June 8, 2017
penguin pie: Should we maybe have two threads, one where people in Britain can talk about the election with each other, and another where we can take it turns to explain it to people not in Britain?
We're just showing that we care. Here in Canada, that's as much as we ever hope for. We'd love to explain Canadian elections to you in Canadian election threads. Just ask. Please. Somebody?
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [29 favorites]
We're just showing that we care. Here in Canada, that's as much as we ever hope for. We'd love to explain Canadian elections to you in Canadian election threads. Just ask. Please. Somebody?
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 PM on June 8, 2017 [29 favorites]
I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy
Apparently stood against Maggie too.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Apparently stood against Maggie too.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Lib Dems take Eastbourne from Conservatives.
Eastbourne is a seaside area with a large old-age pensioner population. Perhaps the Dementia Tax did the Tories in there?
posted by acb at 7:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Eastbourne is a seaside area with a large old-age pensioner population. Perhaps the Dementia Tax did the Tories in there?
posted by acb at 7:31 PM on June 8, 2017
Lord Buckethead is the candidate on the right with the bucket on their head
posted by rhizome at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by rhizome at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy
I hope it's a different guy, and it's passed down from person to person like the Dread Pirate Roberts
There'll be a Lord Buckethead in the 24th century. It's a fixture of British democracy, like Sinn Fein symbolically refusing to take their seats even though independent Ireland was destroyed by self-replicating green goo in 2217, or the first-past-the-post system
posted by Merus at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
I hope it's a different guy, and it's passed down from person to person like the Dread Pirate Roberts
There'll be a Lord Buckethead in the 24th century. It's a fixture of British democracy, like Sinn Fein symbolically refusing to take their seats even though independent Ireland was destroyed by self-replicating green goo in 2217, or the first-past-the-post system
posted by Merus at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
Nuttall stuffed in Skeggy! Only 3000 votes against 20 odd thou Tory
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Oh god, I am so tired, my whole face hurts from some gruesome oral surgery earlier this week, and I can't tear myself away from this.
posted by skybluepink at 7:35 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 7:35 PM on June 8, 2017
IDS scrapes through in Chingford. Shame. We thought we had him this time. Demographics really aren't in his favour and getting worse, but this election just came a little bit too soon for that to come home to roost.
posted by garius at 7:36 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by garius at 7:36 PM on June 8, 2017
I imagine the Tories will just barely string together a government with help from the Unionists in Northern Ireland. I can't imagine Corbyn actually being able to actually forming anything remotely stable if the the Tories fail to form a government. Of course the Tories are completely fucked because their margins would be wafer thin and while the Unionists would be reliable coalition partners even then just about any defectors would cripple the PMs ability to get anything done.
I assume that Brexit will still go forward because the Tories will be terrified of looking weak but at the same time they'll have zero negotiating power and any economic collapse as a result of Brexit will basically fuck them in any future election.
What's interesting is that it seems like Labour has the potential of making a workable voting coalition in the future, perhaps only tempered by the conversion of several seats in in Scotland going from SNP all the way to the Conservatives which seems to be a solid repudiation of Scottish independence more than an endorsement of May and the the Conservatives.
posted by vuron at 7:36 PM on June 8, 2017
I assume that Brexit will still go forward because the Tories will be terrified of looking weak but at the same time they'll have zero negotiating power and any economic collapse as a result of Brexit will basically fuck them in any future election.
What's interesting is that it seems like Labour has the potential of making a workable voting coalition in the future, perhaps only tempered by the conversion of several seats in in Scotland going from SNP all the way to the Conservatives which seems to be a solid repudiation of Scottish independence more than an endorsement of May and the the Conservatives.
posted by vuron at 7:36 PM on June 8, 2017
Amber Rudd asking for 7th recount.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:37 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Just got to check in on the UK election, and I'm so happy for y'all in the UK cos it looks like May seriously bungled this one. Her statements on Brexit and human rights are appalling, and I hope she will resign or the Tories will sack her. Can't stand Boris Johnson either, though.
Anyway, lots of happy thoughts from the States!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Anyway, lots of happy thoughts from the States!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:38 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Nuttall stuffed in Skeggy!
god british cuisine is revolting
posted by indubitable at 7:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [33 favorites]
god british cuisine is revolting
posted by indubitable at 7:39 PM on June 8, 2017 [33 favorites]
Paul Nuttall fails to take Boston & Skegness
...on the Guardian summary which has been winners and losers only so far. I guess he gets a special Fuck You.
posted by Artw at 7:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
...on the Guardian summary which has been winners and losers only so far. I guess he gets a special Fuck You.
posted by Artw at 7:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
In terms of ironies and making coalitions work, I saw this on Twitter:
As has been pointed out to me - Scottish Conservative MPs won't be able to vote on English laws per EVEL. Affects any majority in practice.
posted by ambrosen at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
As has been pointed out to me - Scottish Conservative MPs won't be able to vote on English laws per EVEL. Affects any majority in practice.
posted by ambrosen at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
UKIP got one councillor from the last council election, across the whole of the UK, now they have got shat on in the GE. Surely this is the last time we should be hearing from these sad cases?
posted by biffa at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by biffa at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Sky News reporting a large swing in Greater Titting. English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
posted by Wordshore at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 7:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
UKIP got one councillor from the last council election, across the whole of the UK, now they have got shat on in the GE. Surely this is the last time we should be hearing from these sad cases?
We'll need wall to wall TV coverage of them to know for sure!
posted by Artw at 7:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
We'll need wall to wall TV coverage of them to know for sure!
posted by Artw at 7:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
And Labour takes Canterbury, on the strength of a high youth turnout, unseating a veteran Tory MP who has held it since 1987.
posted by acb at 7:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Sky News reporting a large swing in Greater Titting. English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
Sure. I'm busy giving my pussy a bath anyway.
posted by Talez at 7:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
Sure. I'm busy giving my pussy a bath anyway.
posted by Talez at 7:47 PM on June 8, 2017 [10 favorites]
Oo-er missus!
posted by Artw at 7:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:48 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Canterbury has been Tory since 1918. Nearly 100 years...!
posted by MattWPBS at 7:48 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 7:48 PM on June 8, 2017
A lot of the rural Tory safe seats wont declare until tomorrow.
One of my colleagues is helping at the count for West Cornwall and he has been told they need him till about 10am. The count is for three seats, currently all tory and with varying degrees of possibility for being lost. St Ives really could go either way, the others are long shots.
posted by biffa at 7:49 PM on June 8, 2017
One of my colleagues is helping at the count for West Cornwall and he has been told they need him till about 10am. The count is for three seats, currently all tory and with varying degrees of possibility for being lost. St Ives really could go either way, the others are long shots.
posted by biffa at 7:49 PM on June 8, 2017
Better luck next time, Lord Buckethead.
posted by Artw at 7:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 7:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Woke up briefly to find my night made - not just Shipley, but my pro-EU MP Ruth Cadbury in Brentford and Isleworth went from a tiny 500 vote majority to over 12,000.
posted by edd at 7:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by edd at 7:50 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Hastings on BBC - recount going on, it's a few hundred votes in it. Hour or two for a result. I'm off to bed.
Don't fuck it up Scotland.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017
Don't fuck it up Scotland.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017
And the new Canterbury MP is a product of the Jo Cox Women in Leadership Programme (happy tears)
posted by tractorfeed at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [25 favorites]
posted by tractorfeed at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017 [25 favorites]
And Labour takes Canterbury
Whilst simultaneously losing Middlesborough South. What the fuck is going on?
posted by Talez at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017
Whilst simultaneously losing Middlesborough South. What the fuck is going on?
posted by Talez at 7:51 PM on June 8, 2017
What I'm finding really interesting, putting the UK results in context of recent elections is how voters seem to be voting in a way, surprisingly well-calibrated to the idiosyncrasies of their jurisdiction, to give a middle finger to the political class.
The UK results so far seem designed to ensure almost no politician has a mandate to get anything done. Last month, here in Canada, the election in British Columbia delivered a virtual tie between the incumbents and the biggest challenger, giving the Green Party the balance of power with their 2 seats. And obviously there's the US somehow electing Trump while giving his opponent a significant popular vote victory (though obviously no gridlock there due to political gerrymandering and blatant vote suppression giving the GOP the run of the federal government). Also France avoided this due to their run-off system essentially forcing a choice.
This is of course anecdotal and imperfect analysis. It's just a vibe I keep picking up lately. People are sick of the whole enterprise.
posted by dry white toast at 7:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
The UK results so far seem designed to ensure almost no politician has a mandate to get anything done. Last month, here in Canada, the election in British Columbia delivered a virtual tie between the incumbents and the biggest challenger, giving the Green Party the balance of power with their 2 seats. And obviously there's the US somehow electing Trump while giving his opponent a significant popular vote victory (though obviously no gridlock there due to political gerrymandering and blatant vote suppression giving the GOP the run of the federal government). Also France avoided this due to their run-off system essentially forcing a choice.
This is of course anecdotal and imperfect analysis. It's just a vibe I keep picking up lately. People are sick of the whole enterprise.
posted by dry white toast at 7:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
biffa: "St Ives really could go either way, the others are long shots."
Depends how the seven wives vote.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Depends how the seven wives vote.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Canterbury has been Tory since 1918.
More I feel you include the time before its boundaries changed. In that case it's been Tory since the 1840s.
posted by Catseye at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017
More I feel you include the time before its boundaries changed. In that case it's been Tory since the 1840s.
posted by Catseye at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017
Well, the campaign I volunteered for (George Turner, LibDem in Vauxhall) seems to have failed. But if the Tories lose their majority, I'll happily take the loss.
(Every Labour campaigner I talked to basically said "Yeah, we don't like Kate Hoey either. But vote for her anyway.")
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
(Every Labour campaigner I talked to basically said "Yeah, we don't like Kate Hoey either. But vote for her anyway.")
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Sad to hear that Kate Hoey (an anti-EU Labour MP) has been returned; I knew one person who joined the Lib Dems to campaign against her because of Brexit. The Lib Dems came a distant second.
posted by acb at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Tories would lose mandate to leave EU single market if they lose majority, suggests Brexit Secretary
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [6 favorites]
Diane Abbott, after being the brunt of endless racist, sexist abuse during the campaign, has been returned with a resounding, increased majority, with 75% of the vote in her constituency.
posted by penguin pie at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [38 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 7:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [38 favorites]
Wordshore: English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
American coverage of English elections has to be regularly bleeped out.Cumnock just went for the Conservatives, I see.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
American coverage of English elections has to be regularly bleeped out.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
nooooo, we got at least one fart joke out of Tooting, I'd like to see where people go with this
posted by indubitable at 7:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
nooooo, we got at least one fart joke out of Tooting, I'd like to see where people go with this
posted by indubitable at 7:59 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'd like to see where people go
Cheeky innit
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Cheeky innit
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:00 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Also, the British commentariat had a field day with “Trump”, so turnabout is fair play.
posted by acb at 8:01 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by acb at 8:01 PM on June 8, 2017
no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
Am I too late for the Ed Balls portion of the thread?
posted by dry white toast at 8:01 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Cumnock's in Scotland, clawsoon. Apology needed
posted by scruss at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
SDLP has been wiped out in Northern Ireland. UUP gone. Sinn Fein pick up 2, DUP pick up 2.
posted by Talez at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Talez at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017
Yeah Ed Balls Day is in April
posted by tractorfeed at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by tractorfeed at 8:03 PM on June 8, 2017
Yeah, the abuse heaped on Diane Abbott is beyond disgusting. Very satisfying to see Hackney return her so overwhelmingly.
posted by skybluepink at 8:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 8:04 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
I was planning on going to bed when the conservatives went ahead on the declared seats yet it's 4 in the morning and somehow that still hasn't happened.
posted by dng at 8:05 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by dng at 8:05 PM on June 8, 2017
One thing I've always loved about Edinburgh's election night backdrop is that it's in the same font as the Vic Reeves Big Night Out backdrop.
First time I noticed it was about 6am at a previous election when I was a reporter chasing candidates around the count for quotes and did a proper double take.
posted by penguin pie at 8:06 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
First time I noticed it was about 6am at a previous election when I was a reporter chasing candidates around the count for quotes and did a proper double take.
posted by penguin pie at 8:06 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Glad to see Lincolns' gone Labour and Karl 'Electoral Commission and police investigation' McCartney is out
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:06 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:06 PM on June 8, 2017
So assuming May is history but the Tories manage to form some sort of government who is the odds on favorite to become PM? BoJo seems like the obvious choice but even he's got to realize that anyone who replaces May is going to be merely warming a seat because a slight majority and Brexit is going to be a disaster for continued political prospects. Plus BoJo is hardly a voice of stability. Any chance that the Tories settle on some placeholder who basically is just there in the short term to handle negotiations with the EU and wait until the inevitable next election?
posted by vuron at 8:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by vuron at 8:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
They'll have to rustle someone up from the Lords at this rate.
posted by dng at 8:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by dng at 8:08 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I was planning on going to bed when the conservatives went ahead on the declared seats yet it's 4 in the morning and somehow that still hasn't happened.
Bah, now it has. Goodnight
posted by dng at 8:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Bah, now it has. Goodnight
posted by dng at 8:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
scruss: Cumnock's in Scotland, clawsoon. Apology needed
My sincerest apologies.
posted by clawsoon at 8:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
My sincerest apologies.
posted by clawsoon at 8:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Neophyte question from a foreigner: I'm following The Guardian's live results tracker, and as the seats fill in, the non-Conservative share of seats keeps getting closer to the majority line. I'm seeing predictions in the range of 318-320 for the Cons, but they would have to take a significant portion of the constituencies that haven't been called yet to even get to that.
Is that likely? Are the constituencies that haven't reported yet mostly safe for the Cons?
Sorry to intrude in your digestion of the results!
posted by dry white toast at 8:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Is that likely? Are the constituencies that haven't reported yet mostly safe for the Cons?
Sorry to intrude in your digestion of the results!
posted by dry white toast at 8:15 PM on June 8, 2017
Is that likely? Are the constituencies that haven't reported yet mostly safe for the Cons?
As time goes on the seats will become more and more safe Tory ones. Thought there's a fair number in the SW not declared some of those might switch to Lib Dem.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
As time goes on the seats will become more and more safe Tory ones. Thought there's a fair number in the SW not declared some of those might switch to Lib Dem.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:18 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Big Eck's gone!
posted by penguin pie at 8:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by penguin pie at 8:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Alex Salmond just lost his seat too.
posted by zachlipton at 8:20 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by zachlipton at 8:20 PM on June 8, 2017
Tories would lose mandate to leave EU single market if they lose majority, suggests Brexit Secretary
Huh. So, considering that May was actually anti-Brexit prior to the referendum, do you think it's possible that this was her long game all along? Run a shitty campaign, lose the election and then claim that it's the people's will that the UK stays in the single market? Which is what she wanted in the first place?
posted by sour cream at 8:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Huh. So, considering that May was actually anti-Brexit prior to the referendum, do you think it's possible that this was her long game all along? Run a shitty campaign, lose the election and then claim that it's the people's will that the UK stays in the single market? Which is what she wanted in the first place?
posted by sour cream at 8:21 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
A long game that involves you torching your career and being widely regarded as a pillock that got a lot of your own side voted out is not a very good long game.
posted by Merus at 8:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Merus at 8:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Thought there's a fair number in the SW not declared some of those might switch to Lib Dem.
They might, but to give an idea of how tory the SW is, if you look at the BBC map currently then pretty much all the white in the SW was tory held after 2015.
posted by biffa at 8:24 PM on June 8, 2017
They might, but to give an idea of how tory the SW is, if you look at the BBC map currently then pretty much all the white in the SW was tory held after 2015.
posted by biffa at 8:24 PM on June 8, 2017
Amber Rudd still trying to find the magic ballot tree
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Fucking Brexiters and fucking Unionist tactical voters voting Tory - fucking fuck the lot of them. As Nye Bevan put it '"So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin."
posted by Flitcraft at 8:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Flitcraft at 8:25 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Davies held Shipley?
That's a downer then. Thought previously reported results were actually official so disappointed they were not.
posted by edd at 8:27 PM on June 8, 2017
That's a downer then. Thought previously reported results were actually official so disappointed they were not.
posted by edd at 8:27 PM on June 8, 2017
"You hit your favorite limit for the day." - first time ever.
posted by Artw at 8:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:28 PM on June 8, 2017 [9 favorites]
So Sinn Fein have got 7 elected MPs, assuming they don't come up with some sweet deal then only 322 MPs needed to form a government.
posted by biffa at 8:29 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by biffa at 8:29 PM on June 8, 2017
Don't forget Theresa May when updating "We Didn't Start The Fire" for this crazy year.
🎵 Sheriff Truman, Theresa May, Bernie Bros, Covfefe 🎵
posted by guiseroom at 8:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
🎵 Sheriff Truman, Theresa May, Bernie Bros, Covfefe 🎵
posted by guiseroom at 8:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [14 favorites]
uhhhhhh thanks to Twitter I've just become aware that Alex Salmond once fed a woman a popsicle.
Ha. And that woman looked freakishly like a former colleague of mine, a newspaper reporter in Scotland, who was intermittently plagued by people asking if that pic was her.
posted by penguin pie at 8:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Ha. And that woman looked freakishly like a former colleague of mine, a newspaper reporter in Scotland, who was intermittently plagued by people asking if that pic was her.
posted by penguin pie at 8:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
OK. It's 4.45am, it's broad daylight already here, and the results are hitting a slow patch. I think this is where I leave you all and go to sleep... thanks for your company on this crazy bonkers night.
posted by penguin pie at 8:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 8:45 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
You can't go to bed before the Amber Rudd result!
posted by biffa at 8:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 8:49 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Aggghhh! Is this them about to declare?!
posted by penguin pie at 8:51 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 8:51 PM on June 8, 2017
My constituency is on its second recount. I definitely can't go to bed. Despite the telly having stopped working and the birds starting to sing.
posted by paduasoy at 8:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by paduasoy at 8:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
You can't go to bed before the Amber Rudd result!
*googles how many days a person can do without sleep*
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
*googles how many days a person can do without sleep*
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:52 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Amber Rudd gone?! By 300 votes?!
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017
OH. No. I clearly need to sleep. She's back in.
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017
I and my ailing maths are definitely going to bed now.
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Bollocks
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Me for bed also. I think they are going to scrape a majority. Thanks for letting me down again Britain.
posted by biffa at 8:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 8:56 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I guess she found the necessary hashtags, dammit.
posted by skybluepink at 8:57 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by skybluepink at 8:57 PM on June 8, 2017
rudd daammittttt
posted by lalochezia at 8:59 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by lalochezia at 8:59 PM on June 8, 2017
corbyn = corwin!
posted by lalochezia at 9:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 9:05 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Is this the beginning of a two-party system (says the commentator two seconds after I finish writing this)?
posted by Yowser at 9:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Yowser at 9:12 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
I wish that Nicholas Wilson had got 1 more vote there in Hastings because his wooden spoon would have meant a difference of 1066 to Michael Phillips.
posted by unliteral at 9:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by unliteral at 9:15 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Talk online that North East Fife might be an LD victory by a single vote.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
No way for a Tory majority now... interesting times.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:19 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Good night. Don't forget that anything is possible, especially socialism.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:20 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
On third re-count over here. Apparently it's a "bundle ruffle" this time.
posted by paduasoy at 9:22 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by paduasoy at 9:22 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
There's no way in hell whatever comes out of this lasts a full five years, is there?
posted by Artw at 9:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:27 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
"stonking" is apparently a real word now, and not just slang.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:29 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:29 PM on June 8, 2017
Be lucky to last five months
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
If there was another election soon and Corbyn stayed on, would even more SNP voters go back to Labour?
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 PM on June 8, 2017
Apparently at least 192 women have been elected to Parliament--a record proportion of nearly 30% of MPs! Yay!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:34 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
I'm so confused, and now I can't stop wildly hoping for the actual best - my brain is spinning this entire Christmas-wish-list fantasy of a progressive alliance, Corbyn as PM, staying in the single market, a functional NHS, no more ATOS assessments, no more benefit sanctions driving people to food banks, never having to hear the phrase "the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson" again. Realistically, though, a minority Tory government is still a far, far better outcome than I'd hoped. This is glorious.
posted by Aravis76 at 9:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 9:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
Artw: "There's no way in hell whatever comes out of this lasts a full five years, is there?"
Seems rather like 1974, doesn't it? Which resulted in another election eight months later.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:37 PM on June 8, 2017
Seems rather like 1974, doesn't it? Which resulted in another election eight months later.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:37 PM on June 8, 2017
And on a personal level, I'm so glad that Labour took Gower back. I happened to be in Swansea on the day after the 2015 election, and I met this smug Tory who was delighted about trampling all over Labour history in Wales. Hah.
posted by Aravis76 at 9:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 9:40 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
One extraordinary fact is there's not been a proper Tory landslide since 87, 30 years
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:41 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
"stonking" is apparently a real word now, and not just slang.
It's very Red Dwarf.
posted by Artw at 9:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's very Red Dwarf.
posted by Artw at 9:44 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Hung parliament is official!
posted by chapps at 9:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
posted by chapps at 9:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [15 favorites]
OH BOY.
posted by Artw at 9:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 9:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Tory in my seat has won by 31 votes. If my maths is not out, it may be. I'd rather he hadn't but as when we started this thread I called it a safe seat ... that's something. That's good news. Now I'm going to bed. Thanks, everyone.
posted by paduasoy at 9:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by paduasoy at 9:58 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
Lotta razor thin Tory majorities all over the show. That's going to get nibbled down to nothing in no time.
posted by Artw at 10:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:07 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
dup, from earlier in the thread:
Con + DUP + UUP is 324
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.
Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323.
uhhhh is there a chance that we've ended up in the scenario where Con + DUP have a majority unless Sinn Fein takes their seats?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
Con + DUP + UUP is 324
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.
Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323.
uhhhh is there a chance that we've ended up in the scenario where Con + DUP have a majority unless Sinn Fein takes their seats?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:09 PM on June 8, 2017 [4 favorites]
There is no chance Sinn Fein will take seats in Westminster, though, although obviously I would be thrilled if they suddenly dropped everything, joined hands to sing the Internationale, and came on over. I doubt that their voters would be into it, though.
posted by Aravis76 at 10:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 10:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [3 favorites]
Lotta razor thin Tory majorities all over the show. That's going to get nibbled down to nothing in no time.
Feel like there's a lot of hope that a hung parliament or Tory minority leads to a new election soon, followed by tactical voting and targeting campaigning in those constituencies, allied to a surge to Corbyn (now that people will see him as a winner) plus a surge away from the Conservatives (who will look weak and stupid having presumably changed leaders again).
posted by Pink Frost at 10:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Feel like there's a lot of hope that a hung parliament or Tory minority leads to a new election soon, followed by tactical voting and targeting campaigning in those constituencies, allied to a surge to Corbyn (now that people will see him as a winner) plus a surge away from the Conservatives (who will look weak and stupid having presumably changed leaders again).
posted by Pink Frost at 10:14 PM on June 8, 2017 [7 favorites]
Yet Corbyn was accused of being friendly with Sinn Fein as part of the Tories smears against him. Wouldn't it be absolutely amazing if they had to decide whether to stand by their "friend" in his greatest hour of need right now?
posted by hazyjane at 10:15 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by hazyjane at 10:15 PM on June 8, 2017
It would be amazing, but it would also make me suspect that Gerry Adams had been kidnapped and replaced by a doppelgänger. Sinn Fein are not suddenly going to discover a passion for a united left government at Westminster, which trumps their objection to the whole UK project; it'd be easier to find 3 Tories willing to rebel and join a Labour government.
posted by Aravis76 at 10:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 10:23 PM on June 8, 2017 [11 favorites]
I’m back! Biggest own goal by a serving Prime Minister since the last one?
posted by pharm at 10:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by pharm at 10:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
It's not all terrible after all. Hopefully.
posted by flippant at 10:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by flippant at 10:32 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sinn Fein isn't about to swear the oath to the Queen, and Parliament isn't about to drop that requirement. Totes bonks, I know, but you try talking sense to either side on this.
I have been up all night, watching the debacle unfold. I have run out of claret and, like Cassini, must soon spiral into the gas giant of oblivion. Herein my final radio'd report.
1. Theresa May Fucked It Up. Bye, Thazza.
2. Forget any electoral calculus that adds Con to DUP and arrives at a number. The Tories are now a seething mass of ferrets and lobsters in a half-submerged sack, rather than a sleek indivisible block of electoral power.
3. Jezza may well win the next election.
4. Which may come before Guy Fawkes night.
Scotland, my adopted land, is beyond my understanding.
As for Brexit: Ahahaha. Ahhahah. Hahhaa. Hahhaa. Ha Ha. DO YOU SEE NOW? DO YOU?
Good night, fellow UK Mefites. We shall overcome.
posted by Devonian at 10:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [62 favorites]
I have been up all night, watching the debacle unfold. I have run out of claret and, like Cassini, must soon spiral into the gas giant of oblivion. Herein my final radio'd report.
1. Theresa May Fucked It Up. Bye, Thazza.
2. Forget any electoral calculus that adds Con to DUP and arrives at a number. The Tories are now a seething mass of ferrets and lobsters in a half-submerged sack, rather than a sleek indivisible block of electoral power.
3. Jezza may well win the next election.
4. Which may come before Guy Fawkes night.
Scotland, my adopted land, is beyond my understanding.
As for Brexit: Ahahaha. Ahhahah. Hahhaa. Hahhaa. Ha Ha. DO YOU SEE NOW? DO YOU?
Good night, fellow UK Mefites. We shall overcome.
posted by Devonian at 10:43 PM on June 8, 2017 [62 favorites]
Spectator is saying May will resign @ 10am
posted by pharm at 10:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by pharm at 10:46 PM on June 8, 2017 [5 favorites]
Me waking up and looking at the British electorate this morning. To be clear, Lloyd is the electorate and the moped is a hung parliament, in this analogy.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Happy Dave at 11:11 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Also I went for a run this morning as the last few seats that might have secured a Tory majority slipped away and it was a sunny morning and there was a fuzzy cygnet waddling about on the edge of the big pond I run past, as well as a heron. And I thought maybe this day isn't going to suck.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave at 11:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [12 favorites]
Ugh, Zac Goldsmith is back. That's a small dent in an otherwise good day.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Aravis76 at 11:13 PM on June 8, 2017 [1 favorite]
Talk online that North East Fife might be an LD victory by a single vote.
SNP held... by two votes.
The exit poll looks pretty good at this point. Assigning the remaining few seats to the incumbents, the exit poll vs actual:
Con: Exit 314 / Proj 319
Lab: 266 / 261
SNP: 34 / 35
LD: 14 / 12
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:17 PM on June 8, 2017
SNP held... by two votes.
The exit poll looks pretty good at this point. Assigning the remaining few seats to the incumbents, the exit poll vs actual:
Con: Exit 314 / Proj 319
Lab: 266 / 261
SNP: 34 / 35
LD: 14 / 12
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:17 PM on June 8, 2017
Please, Theresa May, please hum a jaunty but slightly haunting little tune immediately after resigning. Please, make this a thing. a new little tradition.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:29 PM on June 8, 2017 [20 favorites]
Metafilter: a seething mass of ferrets and lobsters in a half-submerged sack
posted by crocomancer at 11:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by crocomancer at 11:33 PM on June 8, 2017 [8 favorites]
Preston saying that May is planning to hang on & try and form a government.
posted by pharm at 11:35 PM on June 8, 2017
posted by pharm at 11:35 PM on June 8, 2017
The lovely couple in Largoward who so graciously drove my wife and me around Scotland and the North last year were the two votes who pushed Stephen Gethins past the post in Fife North East... at least, that's what I've heard :)
posted by infinitewindow at 11:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by infinitewindow at 11:35 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
If May could hum a jaunty tune after losing, her campaign wouldn't have been so disastrous. I think her personal humourlessness and thin-skinned vanity did play a role in the election.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Aravis76 at 11:36 PM on June 8, 2017 [2 favorites]
You know, this was so much fun, I think we should do it all again in a few months.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 11:53 PM on June 8, 2017 [28 favorites]
No government is better than a bad government.
posted by vbfg at 12:07 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 12:07 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
From the opposite side of the globe it is tremendous to see the surge in support for a genuinely leftist platform and leader, even if didn't result in victory. I hope it emboldens progressives everywhere to campaign on positive platforms for justice and equality, and quietens the voices that say we have to move to the right to be electable.
There is a lot of schadenfreude in seeing the conservatives authors of their own miseries, but it is worth remembering that an extremist government without a mandate will be forced to move to the reasonable centre to find support, making it harder to dislodge them in future, as they will appear more benign.
The future looks a little brighter!
posted by bystander at 12:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
There is a lot of schadenfreude in seeing the conservatives authors of their own miseries, but it is worth remembering that an extremist government without a mandate will be forced to move to the reasonable centre to find support, making it harder to dislodge them in future, as they will appear more benign.
The future looks a little brighter!
posted by bystander at 12:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
This was in a seat that gave Conservative a 45 seat majority and returned it to him over the Lib Dem that won it in a by-election. To be clear I suspect incompetence somewhere and not malice, but there's a very clear reminder that making sure you are properly registered and being paranoid about the whole thing is probably a very sensible idea that could make all the difference. Your vote really could count.
posted by edd at 12:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by edd at 12:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Corey Robin:
1. Under a left leadership, Labour denied the Tories a majority, forcing a hung Parliament.posted by Joseph Gurl at 12:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [46 favorites]
2. So far, 192 women have been elected to Parliament. The most ever.
3. Turnout of young voters was way up, and Labour won them. According to one exit poll, by 46%.
3. Corbyn secured Labour's greatest increase in its vote share since Clement Atlee in 1945. Despite two recent terrorist attacks.
4. Corbyn is one of the most progressive voices on Palestine in Europe.
5. Wilders lost, Le Pen lost, the Tories lost their majority in Parliament, and, well, you've heard me on the question of Trump. So maybe, just maybe, the rightward march is not entirely invincible?
6. Good night.
Aye, and the importance of tactical voting in some areas. Tory vote share stayed the same, just Labour supporters who didn't do a tactical who gave him the seat.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MattWPBS at 12:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Conservative % of the vote was up 5.5% since 2015, Labour was up 9.5%.
I think what we're seeing is UKIP's collapse (LibDems, Greens and SNP didn't do too great, either), with their supporters being redistributed between Red and Blue.
Milliband would have walked this - pitted against a remarkably unattractive PM, and not having to start from 20 points behind. Of course, if Milliband was leader of the opposition we would have never seen a snap election in the first place. So...
posted by Leon at 12:31 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
I think what we're seeing is UKIP's collapse (LibDems, Greens and SNP didn't do too great, either), with their supporters being redistributed between Red and Blue.
Milliband would have walked this - pitted against a remarkably unattractive PM, and not having to start from 20 points behind. Of course, if Milliband was leader of the opposition we would have never seen a snap election in the first place. So...
posted by Leon at 12:31 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
In the longer view this was not a great Labour performance. But in context it's a huge success for Corbyn; consolidating his de-Blairification of the party and completely dispelling the widely accepted idea that a rift had opened up between Labour members and Labour voters.
Everyone else loses except the Eurocrats, who now scent blood. The chances of a poor Brexit deal or none at all have greatly increased as more time slips away. A small chance of staying in on really humiliating and costly terms opens up.
Here's a horribly plausible scenario; May replaced by Boris, further election, Tory majority.
posted by Segundus at 12:42 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Everyone else loses except the Eurocrats, who now scent blood. The chances of a poor Brexit deal or none at all have greatly increased as more time slips away. A small chance of staying in on really humiliating and costly terms opens up.
Here's a horribly plausible scenario; May replaced by Boris, further election, Tory majority.
posted by Segundus at 12:42 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Possible future PM Boris Johnson, whose recent achievements include writing a very fine acknowledgements page to a book about Churchill.
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
So if May says she won't resign and doesn't (unlike how she wasn't going to call a snap election), can her party still oust her?
posted by harujion at 12:48 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by harujion at 12:48 AM on June 9, 2017
The EU would much prefer an EEA style Brexit deal, because the "Eurocrats" are true believers in providing the best quality of life for everyone through open trade and open borders. And they want to spend their time being productive, not vindictive. So an EEA deal is much less work, then they can get on with other things.
posted by ambrosen at 12:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 12:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Newcastle-under-Lyme, where 100-odd students were refused their vote due to electoral role fuck up and went back to try again, was won for Labour BY THIRTY VOTES
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:53 AM on June 9, 2017 [43 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:53 AM on June 9, 2017 [43 favorites]
Labour votes, historically:
1997: 13,518,167 (43.2% of vote)
2001: 10,724,953 (40.7%)
2005: 9,567,589(35.2%)
2010: 8,606,518(29.0%)
2015: 9,347,326 (30.4%)
2017 (with four seats left to be called): 12,824,729 (40.08%)
It's not actually 'not a great Labour performance' by the actual vote numbers - the level of turnout and the gain in number of votes is pretty amazing. Admittedly in the Blair landslide year those votes were dispersed more helpfully across seats but I don't think (? I wasn't very politically aware in 1997 because I was 12 so may be wrong) Blair was working with quite the same level of opprobrium from his own party or the media.
Historical info from UK Political Info, current vote stats from Guardian results page as of right now.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
1997: 13,518,167 (43.2% of vote)
2001: 10,724,953 (40.7%)
2005: 9,567,589(35.2%)
2010: 8,606,518(29.0%)
2015: 9,347,326 (30.4%)
2017 (with four seats left to be called): 12,824,729 (40.08%)
It's not actually 'not a great Labour performance' by the actual vote numbers - the level of turnout and the gain in number of votes is pretty amazing. Admittedly in the Blair landslide year those votes were dispersed more helpfully across seats but I don't think (? I wasn't very politically aware in 1997 because I was 12 so may be wrong) Blair was working with quite the same level of opprobrium from his own party or the media.
Historical info from UK Political Info, current vote stats from Guardian results page as of right now.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Newcastle-on-Lyme was the scene of much drama yesterday when hundreds of newly-registered students were turned away at polling stations; they persisted and eventually got to vote later in the day, and Labour has won the seat by 30 votes.
The big story of this election has been the return of young voters, which is fantastic news. Now all the parties will have to start paying attention to them again. Seems that having your future stolen in an unnecessary referendum has a galvanising effect.
posted by rory at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [33 favorites]
The big story of this election has been the return of young voters, which is fantastic news. Now all the parties will have to start paying attention to them again. Seems that having your future stolen in an unnecessary referendum has a galvanising effect.
posted by rory at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [33 favorites]
Leon: I think what we're seeing is UKIP's collapse (LibDems, Greens and SNP didn't do too great, either), with their supporters being redistributed between Red and Blue.... Milliband would have walked this
This is basically the result that was being predicted in 2015, for me it just shows that Cameron's gamble on the EU Referendum is what won it for him. I still believe that he didn't expect to get the majority and therefore wouldn't have run the referendum.
To whoever is running this simulation - Can we just cancel the last two years and restore from that point in 2015?
posted by toamouse at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
This is basically the result that was being predicted in 2015, for me it just shows that Cameron's gamble on the EU Referendum is what won it for him. I still believe that he didn't expect to get the majority and therefore wouldn't have run the referendum.
To whoever is running this simulation - Can we just cancel the last two years and restore from that point in 2015?
posted by toamouse at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
If May doesn't go, we can take to the streets until she does. I think that's probably critical for sending a message about what we want until things stabilise.
posted by ambrosen at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 12:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Blair did have internal trouble but it was years before the election, and he was the third leader in a row that was fighting essentially that same battle.
posted by vbfg at 1:00 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by vbfg at 1:00 AM on June 9, 2017
To get away with staying, May will have to convince the DUP, her party colleagues and Buckingham Palace. Which is a tall order as of this morning. But I guess her inmediate threat - if going with dignity is not for her- would be a no confidence vote sufficient to trigger a re- election under the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament act.
posted by rongorongo at 1:08 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by rongorongo at 1:08 AM on June 9, 2017
To get away with staying, May will have to convince the DUP
DUP leader Arlene Foster has hinted she expects May to stand down.posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:16 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
“It will be difficult for her to survive given that she was presumed at the start of the campaign, which seems an awfully long time ago, to come back with maybe a hundred, maybe more, in terms of her majority,” she told BBC Radio Ulster.
(source)
I think we're talking about an autumn election, with more tactical voting based on the results this time.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:18 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 1:18 AM on June 9, 2017
May will have to convince the DUP
The Tories have been directly responsible for putting the Good Friday agreement and therefore the future of Northern Ireland within the UK at risk, by calling the EU referendum and by doubling down on a hard Brexit. Even if the DUP are natural Tory allies, that must complicate the negotiations.
posted by rory at 1:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
The Tories have been directly responsible for putting the Good Friday agreement and therefore the future of Northern Ireland within the UK at risk, by calling the EU referendum and by doubling down on a hard Brexit. Even if the DUP are natural Tory allies, that must complicate the negotiations.
posted by rory at 1:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
It’s fair to say that the Corbyn Labour party has done well in terms of vote share, but that is against a background of high turnout for both major parties: the Conservatives have also managed a very strong turnout, with a higher share of the vote than Labour.
You could argue that a majority of SNP votes are "Labourish" but allocating Labour 2/3 of the SNP vote still puts them neck & neck. Plus next time around the boundary commission changes will be in place, so Labour will (probably) have a higher hill to climb to get to a majority. It’s going to be tricky.
Meanwhile my parents are very pleased with their local results: a target seat for the Cons stayed Lab with an increased majority of 10k. Apparently the local Con campaign was woeful: pissed of the local activists by faffing about before dumping a London candidate on them that none of them liked on top of the disaster of the national campaign.
Parental prediction: Corbyn will probably resign sometime during this parliament to make way for a successor, who will end up being someone from the right of the party elected on the much stronger left platform that Corbyn has shown is electable. Yvette Cooper a likely candidate.
But, given that we might have another GE inside six months, who knows?
(Cue cries of “Oh no! Not another one...” in a Bristolian accent.)
posted by pharm at 1:28 AM on June 9, 2017
You could argue that a majority of SNP votes are "Labourish" but allocating Labour 2/3 of the SNP vote still puts them neck & neck. Plus next time around the boundary commission changes will be in place, so Labour will (probably) have a higher hill to climb to get to a majority. It’s going to be tricky.
Meanwhile my parents are very pleased with their local results: a target seat for the Cons stayed Lab with an increased majority of 10k. Apparently the local Con campaign was woeful: pissed of the local activists by faffing about before dumping a London candidate on them that none of them liked on top of the disaster of the national campaign.
Parental prediction: Corbyn will probably resign sometime during this parliament to make way for a successor, who will end up being someone from the right of the party elected on the much stronger left platform that Corbyn has shown is electable. Yvette Cooper a likely candidate.
But, given that we might have another GE inside six months, who knows?
(Cue cries of “Oh no! Not another one...” in a Bristolian accent.)
posted by pharm at 1:28 AM on June 9, 2017
Owen Jones on the DUP in 2015: "The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us."
posted by rory at 1:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by rory at 1:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Corbyn will probably resign sometime during this parliament to make way for a successor, who will end up being someone from the right of the party elected on the much stronger left platform that Corbyn has shown is electable.
From your mouth....
posted by Leon at 1:46 AM on June 9, 2017
From your mouth....
posted by Leon at 1:46 AM on June 9, 2017
Oh we're going to have some fun times ahead with public grovelling before the DUP. There is real bad feeling over how Brexit has been managed and NI being essentially ignored by all parties and the mainstream UK media. Now they conceivably have the Conservative and Unionist Party (hahaha) by the short and curlies, even if the Tories can get their act together.
But also, yes, the DUP are kind of nuts in a different sort of way to other parties, as Owen Jones said. This characterisation is unfair... but not by much.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 1:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
But also, yes, the DUP are kind of nuts in a different sort of way to other parties, as Owen Jones said. This characterisation is unfair... but not by much.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 1:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
For those feeling confused about Scotland's swing to the Tories: it was always unlikely that the SNP could hold its 2015 win of 97% of Scottish seats. Under FPTP, the Tories can beat a divided anti-Tory vote, and so they have done in a dozen seats. But they're still under-represented relative to their vote share in Scotland—and Labour even more so—just as they were in 2015. As disappointing as it is to think that Scotland's Tory gains could help prop up a Tory minority government, it isn't some sort of Scottish betrayal of progressive Britain; the Scottish vote remains 70%+ anti-Tory.
posted by rory at 1:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by rory at 1:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Help me out here. If all parties tell May to take a running jump then am I right in thinking that the Tories will just form a minority government?
In other words, for all the celebration, there isn't actually a chance of Labour getting into power since even a coalition of them, Lib Dems and SNP will be 9 seats less than the Tories and nowhere near the 326 seats needed for a majority.
Or have I missed something?
posted by mr_silver at 2:04 AM on June 9, 2017
In other words, for all the celebration, there isn't actually a chance of Labour getting into power since even a coalition of them, Lib Dems and SNP will be 9 seats less than the Tories and nowhere near the 326 seats needed for a majority.
Or have I missed something?
posted by mr_silver at 2:04 AM on June 9, 2017
So happy about Brighton right now. Green party killing it in Brighton Pavilion, Hove still solidly Labour, and Greens dropping out in Brighton Kemptown to help Labour did the business. 💚💚💚💚💚
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:05 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:05 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
If all parties tell May to take a running jump then am I right in thinking that the Tories will just form a minority government?
In the very unlikely event that the DUP rejects the Tories' coalition outreach (and refuses a confidence and supply arrangement), then sure, the Tories could try to form a minority govt. This would be very unstable and prone to falling apart as soon as there's any kind of decisive vote, though, and it's not the position that the Tories want to be in with Brexit negotiations on the horizon. We'd be looking at another election by the autumn.
As it is, with the DUP likely to fall in line, maybe they can hold on till next spring. But they'll have to give up something to persuade the DUP, and whatever they give up would likely antagonise Tory backbenchers.
posted by littlegreen at 2:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
In the very unlikely event that the DUP rejects the Tories' coalition outreach (and refuses a confidence and supply arrangement), then sure, the Tories could try to form a minority govt. This would be very unstable and prone to falling apart as soon as there's any kind of decisive vote, though, and it's not the position that the Tories want to be in with Brexit negotiations on the horizon. We'd be looking at another election by the autumn.
As it is, with the DUP likely to fall in line, maybe they can hold on till next spring. But they'll have to give up something to persuade the DUP, and whatever they give up would likely antagonise Tory backbenchers.
posted by littlegreen at 2:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Pharm: "From your mouth to God's ear". I think it's an old Yiddish saying.
posted by Leon at 2:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Leon at 2:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's really interesting that they centered the campaign so heavily around Theresa May personally, especially when (according to what they've been discussing on BBC just now) she doesn't have much of a personal core of MPs.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:19 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:19 AM on June 9, 2017
That’s probably Lynton Crosby’s fault.
posted by pharm at 2:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by pharm at 2:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The DUP are awful and are going to relish the chance to subject more people to that awfulness. If you have any spare cash looking for a worthy home then the Abortion Support Network could do with some help.
posted by Catseye at 2:21 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:21 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
Is there any way this can be used as leverage to get a cross-party team to negotiate with Europe, hopefully get some sane people in the room?
posted by Grangousier at 2:35 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by Grangousier at 2:35 AM on June 9, 2017
I'm going to pour cold water here and say that I think things are worse than before. The DUP are even more regressive than the Tories. And now they are the coalition partners.
Theresa May has struck a deal with the Democratic Unionists that will allow her to form a government, sources have confirmed.
The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at 1230pm to confirm that a deal is in place.
It follows extensive talks with the DUP late into the night. Party figures say they have been driven on this morning by their dismay at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.
DUP figures insist that their relationship with May’s team has been close since she became prime minister 11 months ago.
A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable.
“For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.”
I'm sorry. It is going to get worse now.
posted by vacapinta at 2:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Theresa May has struck a deal with the Democratic Unionists that will allow her to form a government, sources have confirmed.
The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at 1230pm to confirm that a deal is in place.
It follows extensive talks with the DUP late into the night. Party figures say they have been driven on this morning by their dismay at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.
DUP figures insist that their relationship with May’s team has been close since she became prime minister 11 months ago.
A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable.
“For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.”
I'm sorry. It is going to get worse now.
posted by vacapinta at 2:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Paul Nuttall has quit as leader of UKIP
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:44 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Nuttall claims Ukip could be more popular than it has ever been in 18 months, but not with him as leader. “A new era must begin with a new leader,” he said.So bets on new leader: Farage again?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:44 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
After waking to such hopeful news this morning of Tory losses, the awful realisation dawns that they will be governing with the support of a far-right party: if anything, a worse outcome than an outright Tory victory. "Sure, you can have your Dementia Tax and human rights restrictions, as long as we get to keep our homophobia and anti-abortionism."
Maybe we'll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.
posted by rory at 2:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Maybe we'll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.
posted by rory at 2:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Has he quit or is he just saying he has?
posted by vbfg at 2:49 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 2:49 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Has he quit or is he just saying he has?
Good question. Sometimes you quit only to find they haven't let you quit and you're still leader. Getting out of UKIP is a complicated business.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Good question. Sometimes you quit only to find they haven't let you quit and you're still leader. Getting out of UKIP is a complicated business.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
yeah, but I'm sure Nuttall will manage to get out. He once escaped from Alcatraz you know.
posted by Catseye at 2:56 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:56 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
SNP hold Fife North East by 2 votes. There were 3 recounts. LibDems (in 2nd place) want a fourth.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
I've been refraining from asking questions in here, in favour of googling, because I'm a newcomer to the UK who can't vote yet and maybe lacks baseline understanding. But I'm confused on a particular point and maybe someone can elaborate on vacapinta's and rory's pessimism upthread.
Some sort of Tory/DUP deal is in the offing. Is a recurring "we'll help you implement your Quite Shit Stuff but you have to adopt some of our Abjectly Terrible Stuff in return" scenario likely, and in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
posted by busted_crayons at 3:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Some sort of Tory/DUP deal is in the offing. Is a recurring "we'll help you implement your Quite Shit Stuff but you have to adopt some of our Abjectly Terrible Stuff in return" scenario likely, and in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
posted by busted_crayons at 3:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
May hoping for 'constructive relationship' with creationist homophobes who think Pope is Satan (Satire, but not by much)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
What connects Brexit, the DUP, dark money and a Saudi prince?
posted by rory at 3:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by rory at 3:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
The DUP are very regressive when it comes to things like LBGTQ rights & abortion. However, they will probably push for that stuff in NI only, as there's no way you'll get it applied to the rest of the UK (I hope).
On the positive side, the DUP is also not going to be keen on a hard NI/Irish border, so they may trade support for some kind of deal on that front instead.
Hard to say which way they'll jump - I don't know anything about internal DUP politics.
posted by pharm at 3:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
On the positive side, the DUP is also not going to be keen on a hard NI/Irish border, so they may trade support for some kind of deal on that front instead.
Hard to say which way they'll jump - I don't know anything about internal DUP politics.
posted by pharm at 3:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
is a recurring "we'll help you implement your Quite Shit Stuff but you have to adopt some of our Abjectly Terrible Stuff in return" scenario likely
Yes. A 'confidence and supply' agreement rather than a formal coalition - the DUP wouldn't Ben part of government but would support the government where it needs a majority vote to function.
in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
Unclear. The DUP are batshit crazy climate change denying anti-choice homophobes, though.
posted by Catseye at 3:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yes. A 'confidence and supply' agreement rather than a formal coalition - the DUP wouldn't Ben part of government but would support the government where it needs a majority vote to function.
in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
Unclear. The DUP are batshit crazy climate change denying anti-choice homophobes, though.
posted by Catseye at 3:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Bloody hell. I suppose at least I can go back to being depressed about everything again now, after suffering a few hours of mild notdespair late last night.
posted by dng at 3:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by dng at 3:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm not ready to rend my garments yet, because I have strong doubts about the long-term stability of any agreements she comes to with the DUP headbangers.
posted by skybluepink at 3:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 3:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Even in partnership with the DUP, Tories have a 1 seat majority (possibly 2 depending how Kensington goes) which is less than they had pre-election - just because they have an agreement with the DUP and may have to draft policy accordingly doesn't mean it'll actually get passed with such a wafer-thin majority, particularly if there's not going to be a formal coalition. I'm not saying the DUP aren't bad because they're obviously horrendous, but I don't quite understand the jump to 'this is worse than it was before'.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
If the Tories had won a narrow majority in their own right, we would have had a chastened government knowing that they had to soften their stance on various fronts in order to cling onto power. But a minority Tory government will be tempted to move to the right to ensure DUP support. May is the last person you want to dangle that temptation in front of, given her previous form as Home Secretary and Born-Again Hard Brexiter.
The hope now is that even a Tory + DUP majority will be so fragile that a by-election could knock it sideways. But any by-election could be some way off.
Despite my rational political scientist take above on the 12 Tory gains in Scotland, I do so wish they hadn't happened...
posted by rory at 3:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
If the Tories had won a narrow majority in their own right, we would have had a chastened government knowing that they had to soften their stance on various fronts in order to cling onto power. But a minority Tory government will be tempted to move to the right to ensure DUP support. May is the last person you want to dangle that temptation in front of, given her previous form as Home Secretary and Born-Again Hard Brexiter.
The hope now is that even a Tory + DUP majority will be so fragile that a by-election could knock it sideways. But any by-election could be some way off.
Despite my rational political scientist take above on the 12 Tory gains in Scotland, I do so wish they hadn't happened...
posted by rory at 3:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
So the Tories will still be forming a government of sorts, but comparing this result to what looked likely at the time May called this election still leaves me feeling intensely relieved, so I'll allow it.
Make no mistake by the way that the knives will be out for May within her own party. Fully expecting a re-run round about October.
posted by walrus at 3:34 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Make no mistake by the way that the knives will be out for May within her own party. Fully expecting a re-run round about October.
posted by walrus at 3:34 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Isn't Craig McKinlay still under investigation for election fraud from 2015? A by-election might not be that far away.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
So with the loss of the SNP seats I guess a 2nd independence referendum is not going to happen?
posted by PenDevil at 3:43 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by PenDevil at 3:43 AM on June 9, 2017
So with the loss of the SNP seats I guess a 2nd independence referendum is not going to happen?
It never was within this parliament and I feel like that's probably why the Scots electorate felt able to make this more about Westminster than Scottish nationalism.
posted by walrus at 3:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
It never was within this parliament and I feel like that's probably why the Scots electorate felt able to make this more about Westminster than Scottish nationalism.
posted by walrus at 3:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Relax, the CONDUP party won't be able to push any batshit crazy things through with a single seat majority.
I give it 6 months before they lose a 2/3 no-confidence vote.
Simply because they're too stupid to avoid it.
These are the people who threw away a double digit poll lead in 6 weeks.
posted by fullerine at 3:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
I give it 6 months before they lose a 2/3 no-confidence vote.
Simply because they're too stupid to avoid it.
These are the people who threw away a double digit poll lead in 6 weeks.
posted by fullerine at 3:48 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
It never was within this parliament and I feel like that's probably why the Scots electorate felt able to make this more about Westminster than Scottish nationalism.
The SNP argued that the Scottish Parliment election gave them the mandate for it and it was not up for debate this time round. The other parties in Scotland disagreed and the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.
posted by toamouse at 3:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The SNP argued that the Scottish Parliment election gave them the mandate for it and it was not up for debate this time round. The other parties in Scotland disagreed and the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.
posted by toamouse at 3:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Technically they have more than a single-seat majority. Tories + DUP (discounting Kensington and the Speaker) = 327, and while the "official" majority line is 326, Sinn Fein don't take their seats (and have confirmed that they will continue this practice). So the number required for a "real" majority is 322, giving the Tories a 5-seat majority. It's still unstable and liable to be toppled by Brexit negotiations, but it's not entirely unworkable.
posted by littlegreen at 3:55 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by littlegreen at 3:55 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
The SNP argued that the Scottish Parliment election gave them the mandate for it and it was not up for debate this time round. The other parties in Scotland disagreed and the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.
Interesting, thanks. There was never the slightest, most miniscule chance of it pre-Brexit however.
posted by walrus at 3:55 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Interesting, thanks. There was never the slightest, most miniscule chance of it pre-Brexit however.
posted by walrus at 3:55 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm not ready to rend my garments yet, because I have strong doubts about the long-term stability of any agreements she comes to with the DUP headbangers.
It is also a little ironic that the Conservative's "English Votes for English Laws" legislation - will mean that neither their 13 MPs in Scotland nor their DUP pals will be able to vote on England-only legislation.
posted by rongorongo at 4:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
It is also a little ironic that the Conservative's "English Votes for English Laws" legislation - will mean that neither their 13 MPs in Scotland nor their DUP pals will be able to vote on England-only legislation.
posted by rongorongo at 4:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.
The thing I've seen from people is that Brexit was a bigger deal for them than Indyref2 - I know several people in the North East who work within fishing & oil, and they wanted reassurance re. Brexit, so went Tory.
Takeaway: there is not one issue at play here; people are complex and vote for many different reasons.
posted by kariebookish at 4:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The thing I've seen from people is that Brexit was a bigger deal for them than Indyref2 - I know several people in the North East who work within fishing & oil, and they wanted reassurance re. Brexit, so went Tory.
Takeaway: there is not one issue at play here; people are complex and vote for many different reasons.
posted by kariebookish at 4:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Ruth Cadbury in Brentford and Isleworth went from a tiny 500 vote majority to over 12,000.
I too was delighted to see that. I'm exhausted from traipsing all through the borough getting out the vote. There were posters and signs all over, and a huge group of volunteers, but even then I thought that it might all still be a bubble.
I went to bed without reading or checking anything, and asked my wife not to tell me the result.
She really really wanted to though, So I thought that was probably a good sign, and it was!
I'm only just now catching up on the rest of the country.
I did take great pleasure in marking yesterdays todo list task "Overthrow the government" as done.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:02 AM on June 9, 2017 [27 favorites]
I too was delighted to see that. I'm exhausted from traipsing all through the borough getting out the vote. There were posters and signs all over, and a huge group of volunteers, but even then I thought that it might all still be a bubble.
I went to bed without reading or checking anything, and asked my wife not to tell me the result.
She really really wanted to though, So I thought that was probably a good sign, and it was!
I'm only just now catching up on the rest of the country.
I did take great pleasure in marking yesterdays todo list task "Overthrow the government" as done.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:02 AM on June 9, 2017 [27 favorites]
Owen Jones on the DUP in 2015: "The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us."
See - it's the result we were expecting in 2015. Reboot please!
posted by toamouse at 4:02 AM on June 9, 2017
See - it's the result we were expecting in 2015. Reboot please!
posted by toamouse at 4:02 AM on June 9, 2017
It is also a little ironic that the Conservative's "English Votes for English Laws" legislation - will mean that neither their 13 MPs in Scotland nor their DUP pals will be able to vote on England-only legislation.
Ooo, you're so right! Hope! Hope flutters again! Quick, grab the butterfly net before it gets away!
posted by rory at 4:08 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Ooo, you're so right! Hope! Hope flutters again! Quick, grab the butterfly net before it gets away!
posted by rory at 4:08 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'm not sure that the DUP are going to turn out as bad as we might have feared. They are undoubtedly total and utter bawbags, but they appear to have shot their bolt with regards to coalition/confidence negotiations, They've been quoted as saying “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable. For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.” That appears to limit their opportunities to push their bawbaggery onto the country at large, as the Tories know they'll back down when push comes to shove.
However, it may mean that they get an even freer hand in NI, which is unlikely to work out well there.
posted by Jakey at 4:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
However, it may mean that they get an even freer hand in NI, which is unlikely to work out well there.
posted by Jakey at 4:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Corbyn got the biggest increase of the Labour vote since Attllee in 1945
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:10 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Maybe we'll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.
The DUP are officially pro-Brexit, and I've seen a lot of reports floating round that one condition they have for providing confidence and supply to the Tories is a guarantee of no special status for Northern Ireland re: Brexit.
posted by Dysk at 4:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
The DUP are officially pro-Brexit, and I've seen a lot of reports floating round that one condition they have for providing confidence and supply to the Tories is a guarantee of no special status for Northern Ireland re: Brexit.
posted by Dysk at 4:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Corbyn got the biggest increase of the Labour vote since Attllee in 1945
Rather happy to be eating my words on Corbyn's electability today.
posted by walrus at 4:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Rather happy to be eating my words on Corbyn's electability today.
posted by walrus at 4:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Also EVEL will not be a problem, as the Tories actually have a healthy majority in England.
posted by Jakey at 4:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Jakey at 4:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The problem with stitched together unofficial coalitions is that every time the minority government needs the votes to get something passed they must horse trade with minor parties. And that could mean ongoing concessions to the DUP, giving them a blank chequebook to fill with small wins as long as the government lasts.
Seeing what their platform is about, I am a bit worried for the sensible people in NI.
The current Australian conservatives have to hand a fillip off to our local micro party whenever they need something done, who are similarly regionally focussed - leading to sweetheart deals for that state.
posted by bystander at 4:13 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Seeing what their platform is about, I am a bit worried for the sensible people in NI.
The current Australian conservatives have to hand a fillip off to our local micro party whenever they need something done, who are similarly regionally focussed - leading to sweetheart deals for that state.
posted by bystander at 4:13 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'd imagine that it'll work for a while, the the DUP will start asking for... things, and the Torys that are feeling a little vulnerable will blink. The House of Lords will feel emboldened to block anything too terrible and get people saying 'hurrah for the House of Lords' for the first time in their lives, and the entire government will go into a death spiral when it's clear they blew their legitimacy and the electorate decides they want this over with.
Corbyn didn't win, but he decisively answered his many, many critics, much of whom are now crowing over a Labour that can win seats (it being far more desirable to criticise a person than a broken system, because most critics would rather eventually use that broken system for their own ends). You don't junk a leader that surged 20 points in 6 weeks and got the Youths to actually turn up, and it's going to be a very different story next election, assuming Corbyn doesn't fuck it up, or put his party colleagues off-side now that they owe him.
posted by Merus at 4:16 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Corbyn didn't win, but he decisively answered his many, many critics, much of whom are now crowing over a Labour that can win seats (it being far more desirable to criticise a person than a broken system, because most critics would rather eventually use that broken system for their own ends). You don't junk a leader that surged 20 points in 6 weeks and got the Youths to actually turn up, and it's going to be a very different story next election, assuming Corbyn doesn't fuck it up, or put his party colleagues off-side now that they owe him.
posted by Merus at 4:16 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Paul Nuttall has deleted his Twitter account.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
I am as disgusted by the DUP as anyone with a soul, but Owen Jones's appeal to moderate Tories should be understood not as a prognostication of doom, but as an attempt to put pressure on the ability of the Tories to govern as a minority party with a razor thin functional majority. The reality is that half a dozen Tories can hold the entire thing to ransom, and nothing collapses faster than whipping discipline when power passes from the leadership to the backbench, as it has here.
Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.
posted by howfar at 4:18 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.
posted by howfar at 4:18 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border? If the Tories are serious about limiting free movement between the UK and the EU, then there has to be a hard border somewhere, either between the Republic and NI or between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't understand how that could work in the real world, and it gets even harder with the DUP's "no special status" requirement.
posted by fuzz at 4:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by fuzz at 4:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.
Or they could be northern Irish, or concerned about how things are now in northern Ireland, not how things are now in England.
posted by Dysk at 4:28 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Or they could be northern Irish, or concerned about how things are now in northern Ireland, not how things are now in England.
posted by Dysk at 4:28 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.
Better things:
Labour vote has surged
Youth vote is way up
Tory government is unstable and will have trouble holding on
Theresa May has no personal mandate whatsoever
Several Tory ministers lost their seats
Many good progressive candidates didn't
Prospects for next election in 2022 are good
Worse things:
It isn't 2022 yet
Tories will still be the actual government with the actual power to do Tory things
A far-right minority party will have a direct influence on government, rather than the indirect influence other far-right parties have had before now
Brexit negotiations will be even more of a dog's breakfast
God help us, Boris Johnson might become prime minister
Or Michael Gove might
Or Iain Duncan-Smith might
Schroedinger's things:
Brexit
posted by rory at 4:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
Better things:
Labour vote has surged
Youth vote is way up
Tory government is unstable and will have trouble holding on
Theresa May has no personal mandate whatsoever
Several Tory ministers lost their seats
Many good progressive candidates didn't
Prospects for next election in 2022 are good
Worse things:
It isn't 2022 yet
Tories will still be the actual government with the actual power to do Tory things
A far-right minority party will have a direct influence on government, rather than the indirect influence other far-right parties have had before now
Brexit negotiations will be even more of a dog's breakfast
God help us, Boris Johnson might become prime minister
Or Michael Gove might
Or Iain Duncan-Smith might
Schroedinger's things:
Brexit
posted by rory at 4:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
A half dozen Tories catch a cold at their next pig [doing nice things to] event and a no-confidence vote happens immediately. Westminster parliaments are pretty exciting compared to the American system.
posted by Space Coyote at 4:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Space Coyote at 4:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
There is also, potentially the outcome of (supposedly) a couple of criminal investigations to come.
McKinley and May (though I'm sceptical in the extreme of that going anywhere).
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
McKinley and May (though I'm sceptical in the extreme of that going anywhere).
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
It isn't 2022 yetIt's cool, because if this government makes it to 2022 then the massive amounts of crack everyone was smoking would have made the time fly by.
posted by fullerine at 4:49 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border?
The EEA solution, whereby the country as a whole stays in the single market and has no hard border with the EU. I gather this is what the DUP want - no special status for NI, but no exit from the single market for the UK.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
The EEA solution, whereby the country as a whole stays in the single market and has no hard border with the EU. I gather this is what the DUP want - no special status for NI, but no exit from the single market for the UK.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
MAY: Ma'am.
THE QUEEN: Sooooo how did it go? *snicker* Did you *fit of the giggles*
MAY: Ma'am. I...
THE QUEEN: "...didn't increase my majority?" *roars*
MAY: Ma'am I request...
THE QUEEN: God. Sorry. Go on. I'll be serious.
MAY: Ma'am I request permission to...
THE QUEEN: *points and laughs*
MAY: Ma'am, please. I request permission to form a govern...
THE QUEEN: bellows with laughter* Oh God. *sniff* Oh God. Sorry. Sorry. I'm trying. I just haven't had this much fun since Eden.
posted by garius at 4:56 AM on June 9, 2017 [59 favorites]
THE QUEEN: Sooooo how did it go? *snicker* Did you *fit of the giggles*
MAY: Ma'am. I...
THE QUEEN: "...didn't increase my majority?" *roars*
MAY: Ma'am I request...
THE QUEEN: God. Sorry. Go on. I'll be serious.
MAY: Ma'am I request permission to...
THE QUEEN: *points and laughs*
MAY: Ma'am, please. I request permission to form a govern...
THE QUEEN: bellows with laughter* Oh God. *sniff* Oh God. Sorry. Sorry. I'm trying. I just haven't had this much fun since Eden.
posted by garius at 4:56 AM on June 9, 2017 [59 favorites]
Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border? If the Tories are serious about limiting free movement between the UK and the EU, then there has to be a hard border somewhere, either between the Republic and NI or between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't understand how that could work in the real world, and it gets even harder with the DUP's "no special status" requirement.
My (possibly oversimplified) understanding of this is that the current state is:
1. The UK and Ireland are not part of the common EU travel area (Schengen Zone)
2. The UK and Ireland currently have their own common travel area
Therefore the 'border' is between the two travel zones, not specifically between the UK and the EU.
Depending on the agreements on travel between the UK and the EU the situation could remain the same with passport checks (and stamps if the border is considered to be 'hard') on entry to either the UK or Ireland from the rest of the EU and the world but not on travelling between them.
posted by toamouse at 5:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
My (possibly oversimplified) understanding of this is that the current state is:
1. The UK and Ireland are not part of the common EU travel area (Schengen Zone)
2. The UK and Ireland currently have their own common travel area
Therefore the 'border' is between the two travel zones, not specifically between the UK and the EU.
Depending on the agreements on travel between the UK and the EU the situation could remain the same with passport checks (and stamps if the border is considered to be 'hard') on entry to either the UK or Ireland from the rest of the EU and the world but not on travelling between them.
posted by toamouse at 5:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Garius - had to share that Queen/May conversation on Facebook. :)
posted by MattWPBS at 5:07 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by MattWPBS at 5:07 AM on June 9, 2017
The kids are alright.
@DavidLammy
72% turnout for 18-25 year olds. Big up yourselves 👊👏 #GE2017
@JStein_Vox
In 2015, Miliband won the youth vote by 15 points.
In 2016, Clinton won it by 18 points.
Tonight's exit poll: Corbyn won it by 44 points
posted by chris24 at 5:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [37 favorites]
@DavidLammy
72% turnout for 18-25 year olds. Big up yourselves 👊👏 #GE2017
@JStein_Vox
In 2015, Miliband won the youth vote by 15 points.
In 2016, Clinton won it by 18 points.
Tonight's exit poll: Corbyn won it by 44 points
posted by chris24 at 5:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [37 favorites]
The youth vote also surged in Canada's last election, and went strongly left (62% left to 23% right for the major parties). Perhaps a trend piece about Millennials is in order.
posted by clawsoon at 5:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 5:17 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Kensington still needs another recount, scheduled for 6pm apparently. There are claims Tories have written it off though.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Prospects for next election in 2022 are good
All your 'better things' are assuming there is still a country in 2022.
Tories have now successfully pushed out the 2020 election to 2022 and they have managed to remain in power. And they are friends with a party who will push them *further* right. This is why I still think things have gotten worse. Perhaps there is hope in the longer term but the short term looks pretty grim unless there's a Tory coup and they replace TM with a moderate. Not holding my breath though.
posted by vacapinta at 5:26 AM on June 9, 2017
All your 'better things' are assuming there is still a country in 2022.
Tories have now successfully pushed out the 2020 election to 2022 and they have managed to remain in power. And they are friends with a party who will push them *further* right. This is why I still think things have gotten worse. Perhaps there is hope in the longer term but the short term looks pretty grim unless there's a Tory coup and they replace TM with a moderate. Not holding my breath though.
posted by vacapinta at 5:26 AM on June 9, 2017
Is this election a bigger fuckup for May than Brexit was for Cameron?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by leotrotsky at 5:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Despite BBC announcement, Kensington is still uncertain apparently.
Another recount will commence at 1800.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Another recount will commence at 1800.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:29 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Tories have now successfully pushed out the 2020 election to 2022
I think you're overestimating the stability of a Tory-DUP alliance, even with the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. They'll be lucky if they've pushed it out to next summer.
posted by littlegreen at 5:31 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
I think you're overestimating the stability of a Tory-DUP alliance, even with the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. They'll be lucky if they've pushed it out to next summer.
posted by littlegreen at 5:31 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
No chance there won't be another election long before 2022, which the electorate is likely to be quite unhappy about and blame squarely on May, in the unlikely event the Tories haven't quietly buried her in an unmarked political grave before that.
posted by walrus at 5:42 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by walrus at 5:42 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
In addition to all the women, "There will be a record 51 ethnic minority MPs in the new House of Commons."
posted by clawsoon at 5:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 5:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:50 AM on June 9, 2017 [37 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:50 AM on June 9, 2017 [37 favorites]
Kensington is fascinating. Centuries of old money voting Tory, gradually pushed out by Russian oligarchs and non-domiciled millionaires who haven't got a vote there. I really hope this happens and the power structures begin a change for the better, because right now they're an island of an obstructionist local authority working against everyone's interests.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:52 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
I wonder if the right-wing press, after all the mud they threw at Corbyn over talking to the IRA, will make any fuss over the former connections between the DUP and Loyalist terrorists?
Ulster Resistance, back in 1987:
"The group was launched at a three thousand-strong invitation-only meeting at the Ulster Hall. The rally was chaired by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Press Officer Sammy Wilson and addressed by party colleagues Ian Paisley, Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster."
"DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson was also photographed wearing the militant loyalist paramilitary regalia of beret and military fatigues at an Ulster Resistance rally."
posted by Azara at 5:53 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Ulster Resistance, back in 1987:
"The group was launched at a three thousand-strong invitation-only meeting at the Ulster Hall. The rally was chaired by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Press Officer Sammy Wilson and addressed by party colleagues Ian Paisley, Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster."
"DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson was also photographed wearing the militant loyalist paramilitary regalia of beret and military fatigues at an Ulster Resistance rally."
posted by Azara at 5:53 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Depending on the agreements on travel between the UK and the EU the situation could remain the same with passport checks (and stamps if the border is considered to be 'hard') on entry to either the UK or Ireland from the rest of the EU and the world but not on travelling between them.
If UK citizens need a visa to travel to the EU then there will need to be more stringent checks built in somewhere when crossing into the EU? I guess its possible Ireland could have those in place at its own borders but I'm not sure they will be keen to do so. I am pontificating here but I guess this might make a difference to the negotiations about what UK citizens do need in order to get into the EU post-Brexit.
posted by biffa at 5:54 AM on June 9, 2017
If UK citizens need a visa to travel to the EU then there will need to be more stringent checks built in somewhere when crossing into the EU? I guess its possible Ireland could have those in place at its own borders but I'm not sure they will be keen to do so. I am pontificating here but I guess this might make a difference to the negotiations about what UK citizens do need in order to get into the EU post-Brexit.
posted by biffa at 5:54 AM on June 9, 2017
Not all photographs of Peter Robinson were of him in paramilitary uniform. Here he is in his civvies. (Albeit in Israel rather than NI).
posted by vbfg at 5:57 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by vbfg at 5:57 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."All that, plus also corruption. They're holy warriors on all sorts of issues related to other people's religion and morality, but they're not so much with the "thou shalt not lie" and "thou shalt not steal" side of things.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:57 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
As S-Club might have said, there ain't no party like a backbiting, back stabbing Tory party. Guess which newspaper is running with 'Queen of Denial' this evening?
posted by biffa at 5:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by biffa at 5:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
I feel like the DUP being in a kingmaking position is some kind of karmic payback for years of Brits laughing at US politicians who didn't believe in dinosaurs, climate change, lgbt rights or peaceful inter-religious co-existence.
posted by Erberus at 6:02 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Erberus at 6:02 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."
All that, plus also corruption. They're holy warriors on all sorts of issues related to other people's religion and morality, but they're not so much with the "thou shalt not lie" and "thou shalt not steal" side of things.
...So, like the GOP, except that they're stuck in an era a bit older than the Mayflower or the Confederacy?
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
All that, plus also corruption. They're holy warriors on all sorts of issues related to other people's religion and morality, but they're not so much with the "thou shalt not lie" and "thou shalt not steal" side of things.
...So, like the GOP, except that they're stuck in an era a bit older than the Mayflower or the Confederacy?
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I wonder if the right-wing press, after all the mud they threw at Corbyn over talking to the IRA, will make any fuss over the former connections between the DUP and Loyalist terrorists?
IOKIYAT
posted by leotrotsky at 6:08 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
IOKIYAT
posted by leotrotsky at 6:08 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
Perhaps there is hope in the longer term but the short term looks pretty grim unless there's a Tory coup and they replace TM with a moderate. Not holding my breath though.
Don't forget that, in a 650-member parliament, byelections are a regular occurrence. If the ConDUP government does badly, its majority may crumble soon, to the point where it cannot get a vote of confidence.
Also, party discipline. May is a disciplinarian, but is in a weak position. The Tories are a broad church; they were split on Leave/Remain, and I can imagine there would be a number of MPs who don't want part of whatever concession the DUP demand for their support. Can May keep a lid on dissent?
posted by acb at 6:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Don't forget that, in a 650-member parliament, byelections are a regular occurrence. If the ConDUP government does badly, its majority may crumble soon, to the point where it cannot get a vote of confidence.
Also, party discipline. May is a disciplinarian, but is in a weak position. The Tories are a broad church; they were split on Leave/Remain, and I can imagine there would be a number of MPs who don't want part of whatever concession the DUP demand for their support. Can May keep a lid on dissent?
posted by acb at 6:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Just tried to explain the DUP to one of my developers, who is a newly-arrived American now living in London and who has been putting an admirable level of effort into trying to understand this whole electoral process whilst still fresh off the boat.
ME: Okay. So they're really not nice people. They don't believe in abortion. Or climate change. Or...
HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!
ME: Well... no. I mean, they're also uber religious and...
HER: Yeah... that's Republicans. Gotcha.
I was going to argue, but then realised she kinda had a point. Reminded me how big the divide is on a cultural level between the two sides of the Pond sometimes.
posted by garius at 6:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
ME: Okay. So they're really not nice people. They don't believe in abortion. Or climate change. Or...
HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!
ME: Well... no. I mean, they're also uber religious and...
HER: Yeah... that's Republicans. Gotcha.
I was going to argue, but then realised she kinda had a point. Reminded me how big the divide is on a cultural level between the two sides of the Pond sometimes.
posted by garius at 6:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
Okay, few thoughts on all of this.
Theresa May is a dead woman walking. The Tories had a working majority, and she gambled that, ran a terrible campaign that was centred on her, performed poorly in public or didn't turn up, and ultimately lost. That party eats its own, and there will be multiple factions who were sharpening their knives even before the exit poll. I don't expect her to last the summer, but I don't know who'll replace her. There is going to be a lot of infighting about which faction is to blame for this - Hard Brexiters, the more liberal side of the party, traditionalists, etc. I'm expecting to see some factionalism like Major had to deal with when he was dependent on the Ulster Unionists. That's going to make it a lot harder to predict than a coronation style process. If she tries to carry on as she has, I think she will be in for a very nasty surprise. Tories follow winners, and she is not a winner. I'm expecting more push back on her Brexit strategy from Remain backing MPs - she called this to endorse her vision of Brexit, and by her own definition it has been rejected.
On that front, I don't expect the Tories to be able to pass anything remotely controversial. This size of the swing to Labour is going to make a lot of Tory MPs very nervous for their seats. They've seen the party nationally lose popularity, so they won't want to be tied to anything that could tip the balance in their local constituency. Imagine if you're asked to vote to freeze NHS budgets when a hospital in your area is facing closure, if you're asked to support leaving the Single Market when your constituency voted Remain, if you're asked to back fracking in your area. Anything remotely controversial will see Tory MPs starting to back off supporting it. On the other side, a lot of them will be trying to make sure that their name is known locally, so that they're not dependent on the national party when the next election comes. That should lead to more awkward questions to promote local concerns and issues.
The Tories being propped up by the DUP is going to be exploited and driven home by the other parties relentlessly. Let's not forget that they have spent this campaign attacking Corbyn for having had meetings with former IRA members, and warned about the dangers of Labour being propped up by a regional party in the SNP and having to dispense favours. The DUP have historical links to the loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland, and are a regional party who the Tories will have to dispense favours to. Even if only beneath the surface, this is going to cause tensions within the Tory party and the press. The DUP are a Northern Ireland party first and foremost, and they know that a Hard Brexit will have terrible consequences for Northern Ireland in the short term, and for their core belief that it should remain part of the United Kingdom in the long term. The Tories have to square this with their own rabid right who are demanding that same Hard Brexit.
That's not a government that can get much done, and there will be another election soon to fix that. Either by the Tories gambling, or by a vote of no confidence in the house. Feel that all the pressure above is going to make this more likely as well. The last two years are going to have seriously damaged their reputation for being a safe pair of hands for the economy - two damaging impacts inflicted by them to resolve party internal issues with the Brexit referendum, and now a hung parliament. They will also be blamed for the face that there's another election. This is not strong and stable, and that phrase will be an albatross around their necks.
We've now got a very clear view of where the Tories are going to be most vulnerable when that next election comes around, and it's in seats which weren't even thought to be in play. I hope we'll see even more tactical voting to remove those MPs. That's got to mean things like more support for the Lib Dems in Richmond (Tory majority 45) or Labour in Hastings (Tory majority 346). Look at this as a practise run - it's either confirmed which of the progressive parties people should back (Lib Dems in Twickenham), or proven that it was different to what some thought (back Labour over Lib Dems in Portsmouth South). Ideally this will mean a coalition that can agree on voting reform (maybe regional top up PR?).
On the Lib Dems, I'm extremely glad to see an increase in the number of MPs. Would have preferred to have seen more, especially with the number of narrow losses to the Tories. Firmly believe in the values of the party, and that we will continue to come back in by-elections and general elections. At some point this country will move on from First Past The Post, and I look forward to that day. I'm sorry to see Nick Clegg go - I hope he stays in politics in some form, especially to hold the government's feet to the fire over the Brexit negotiations (whoever is in government).
I'm glad to see Labour's resurgency as well. This country needs a strong opposition with a clear difference to the government. Labour and Corbyn are looking like they are going to be able to provide that now, and I hope the support continues between elections and gets generally involved in politics. I'm hopeful that it's going to shift the Overton Window back away from the UKIP inspired move to the right.
So where do we go from here? We prepare, and we pressure. Get in touch with your local party, join your local party, start looking at all levels of government (Parish, County, whatever) and see where you might be able to make a difference. Build up your connections now. When that next election comes we should be ready to go from day one - canvassing, getting people registered, campaigning. If you live in a constituency which isn't a reasonable target for your party, then you'll be ready to help in the nearest one that is. Remember, some of these were decided by less than 100 people.
YOU CAN AND WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
If you're in a Tory seat, get awkward. Hold your MP's feet to the fire, go to constituency surgeries, ask them the difficult questions about if they support cuts to the local hospital or schools, ask them what they're planning to do about housing in your area, ask them what they're doing to make sure a disastrous Hard Brexit that wasn't on the referendum paper doesn't happen. Make them work for you as your constituency MP, make them sweat, make them nervous, make them realise that their seat may not be safe.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:14 AM on June 9, 2017 [55 favorites]
Theresa May is a dead woman walking. The Tories had a working majority, and she gambled that, ran a terrible campaign that was centred on her, performed poorly in public or didn't turn up, and ultimately lost. That party eats its own, and there will be multiple factions who were sharpening their knives even before the exit poll. I don't expect her to last the summer, but I don't know who'll replace her. There is going to be a lot of infighting about which faction is to blame for this - Hard Brexiters, the more liberal side of the party, traditionalists, etc. I'm expecting to see some factionalism like Major had to deal with when he was dependent on the Ulster Unionists. That's going to make it a lot harder to predict than a coronation style process. If she tries to carry on as she has, I think she will be in for a very nasty surprise. Tories follow winners, and she is not a winner. I'm expecting more push back on her Brexit strategy from Remain backing MPs - she called this to endorse her vision of Brexit, and by her own definition it has been rejected.
On that front, I don't expect the Tories to be able to pass anything remotely controversial. This size of the swing to Labour is going to make a lot of Tory MPs very nervous for their seats. They've seen the party nationally lose popularity, so they won't want to be tied to anything that could tip the balance in their local constituency. Imagine if you're asked to vote to freeze NHS budgets when a hospital in your area is facing closure, if you're asked to support leaving the Single Market when your constituency voted Remain, if you're asked to back fracking in your area. Anything remotely controversial will see Tory MPs starting to back off supporting it. On the other side, a lot of them will be trying to make sure that their name is known locally, so that they're not dependent on the national party when the next election comes. That should lead to more awkward questions to promote local concerns and issues.
The Tories being propped up by the DUP is going to be exploited and driven home by the other parties relentlessly. Let's not forget that they have spent this campaign attacking Corbyn for having had meetings with former IRA members, and warned about the dangers of Labour being propped up by a regional party in the SNP and having to dispense favours. The DUP have historical links to the loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland, and are a regional party who the Tories will have to dispense favours to. Even if only beneath the surface, this is going to cause tensions within the Tory party and the press. The DUP are a Northern Ireland party first and foremost, and they know that a Hard Brexit will have terrible consequences for Northern Ireland in the short term, and for their core belief that it should remain part of the United Kingdom in the long term. The Tories have to square this with their own rabid right who are demanding that same Hard Brexit.
That's not a government that can get much done, and there will be another election soon to fix that. Either by the Tories gambling, or by a vote of no confidence in the house. Feel that all the pressure above is going to make this more likely as well. The last two years are going to have seriously damaged their reputation for being a safe pair of hands for the economy - two damaging impacts inflicted by them to resolve party internal issues with the Brexit referendum, and now a hung parliament. They will also be blamed for the face that there's another election. This is not strong and stable, and that phrase will be an albatross around their necks.
We've now got a very clear view of where the Tories are going to be most vulnerable when that next election comes around, and it's in seats which weren't even thought to be in play. I hope we'll see even more tactical voting to remove those MPs. That's got to mean things like more support for the Lib Dems in Richmond (Tory majority 45) or Labour in Hastings (Tory majority 346). Look at this as a practise run - it's either confirmed which of the progressive parties people should back (Lib Dems in Twickenham), or proven that it was different to what some thought (back Labour over Lib Dems in Portsmouth South). Ideally this will mean a coalition that can agree on voting reform (maybe regional top up PR?).
On the Lib Dems, I'm extremely glad to see an increase in the number of MPs. Would have preferred to have seen more, especially with the number of narrow losses to the Tories. Firmly believe in the values of the party, and that we will continue to come back in by-elections and general elections. At some point this country will move on from First Past The Post, and I look forward to that day. I'm sorry to see Nick Clegg go - I hope he stays in politics in some form, especially to hold the government's feet to the fire over the Brexit negotiations (whoever is in government).
I'm glad to see Labour's resurgency as well. This country needs a strong opposition with a clear difference to the government. Labour and Corbyn are looking like they are going to be able to provide that now, and I hope the support continues between elections and gets generally involved in politics. I'm hopeful that it's going to shift the Overton Window back away from the UKIP inspired move to the right.
So where do we go from here? We prepare, and we pressure. Get in touch with your local party, join your local party, start looking at all levels of government (Parish, County, whatever) and see where you might be able to make a difference. Build up your connections now. When that next election comes we should be ready to go from day one - canvassing, getting people registered, campaigning. If you live in a constituency which isn't a reasonable target for your party, then you'll be ready to help in the nearest one that is. Remember, some of these were decided by less than 100 people.
YOU CAN AND WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
If you're in a Tory seat, get awkward. Hold your MP's feet to the fire, go to constituency surgeries, ask them the difficult questions about if they support cuts to the local hospital or schools, ask them what they're planning to do about housing in your area, ask them what they're doing to make sure a disastrous Hard Brexit that wasn't on the referendum paper doesn't happen. Make them work for you as your constituency MP, make them sweat, make them nervous, make them realise that their seat may not be safe.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:14 AM on June 9, 2017 [55 favorites]
Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating? I can find no evidence of it now but I think I have believed that for some time.
posted by vbfg at 6:15 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by vbfg at 6:15 AM on June 9, 2017
There are actually pretty deep connections between the DUP and various kinds of politicized Southern US fundamentalism. Ian Paisley, who founded the DUP, was a trustee of Bob Jones University, for instance. The main difference is that American fundies stopped seeing Catholicism as a big enemy after the '60s, and for obvious reason that didn't happen in Northern Ireland. But yeah, it's not wrong to understand the DUP through the lens of American politicized evangelical Christianity, because there are definite similarities and links, if you just keep in mind that anti-Catholicism plays a somewhat similar role in NI evangelical culture that racism does in white Southern American evangelical culture.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 AM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 AM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
It'll be very interesting to see how the Tories can whip when basically all of their power just shifted to backbenchers with a variety of competing interests. Some Conservatives are going to want a soft Brexit because of finance reasons while others will be pushing for a complete Hard Brexit. I can't see May having the ability to actually negotiate anything resembling favorable terms from the EU.
The gains in Scotland by the Conservatives are going to have to be seen as temporary at best as they seem to reflect anti-Independence sentiment more than pro-Conservative sentiment. Many of those seats seem like they would possibly shift back towards SNP or Labour if the circumstances warrant it.
Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun. She no doubt imagined herself becoming Thatcher 2.0 and now that's going to be illusory at best.
posted by vuron at 6:18 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The gains in Scotland by the Conservatives are going to have to be seen as temporary at best as they seem to reflect anti-Independence sentiment more than pro-Conservative sentiment. Many of those seats seem like they would possibly shift back towards SNP or Labour if the circumstances warrant it.
Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun. She no doubt imagined herself becoming Thatcher 2.0 and now that's going to be illusory at best.
posted by vuron at 6:18 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating? I can find no evidence of it now but I think I have believed that for some time.
The often vaunted “Scotch-Irish” cultural base of parts of the US South comes from Northern Ireland and the Scottish Borders.
posted by acb at 6:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
The often vaunted “Scotch-Irish” cultural base of parts of the US South comes from Northern Ireland and the Scottish Borders.
posted by acb at 6:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
It seems unlikely that a newly-reelected Prime Minister may have to consider resigning soon afterwards...
but Theresa May
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
but Theresa May
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating?At a deep historical level, this is true to a large extent. A lot of American evangelicals are descendants of Ulster Presbyterians who left Ireland in the 18th century. But I mean, it's been a pretty eventful four hundred years, so I'm not sure you should overstate the importance of that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:20 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
For those waking up in Tory areas, there is a template going around written by Amy Bottrill for you to express your profound displeasure at this alliance. This needs to become the UK version of the Indivisible movement: get on the phone, write letters, attend surgeries. Make your disagreement heard!
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 6:21 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 6:21 AM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
*Fred removes head from giant Video-camera*
Shaggy: Why there was no Panopticon terror monster after all, it was ol' Theresa May all along!
May: ...and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for your meddling voters!
posted by leotrotsky at 6:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Shaggy: Why there was no Panopticon terror monster after all, it was ol' Theresa May all along!
May: ...and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for your meddling voters!
posted by leotrotsky at 6:22 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
All your 'better things' are assuming there is still a country in 2022. ... This is why I still think things have gotten worse.
Yeah, I think the worse things outweigh the better things for the time being too. Just the fact that Theresa May could issue this statement as if everything is business as usual suggests that all the awful things the Tories promised in their manifesto are coming our way. Enjoy your relatively unencumbered web browsing, as who knows how long it will last.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.
The Callaghan minority government lasted a few years in the 1970s. A Tory minority government will only need half that to fuck up everything for the entire country for generations.
Nevertheless, this is no reason for paralysis: anything progressives can do to make their lives harder, we should. And nothing can take away the glorious schadenfreude of seeing this election blow up in their faces.
posted by rory at 6:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yeah, I think the worse things outweigh the better things for the time being too. Just the fact that Theresa May could issue this statement as if everything is business as usual suggests that all the awful things the Tories promised in their manifesto are coming our way. Enjoy your relatively unencumbered web browsing, as who knows how long it will last.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.
The Callaghan minority government lasted a few years in the 1970s. A Tory minority government will only need half that to fuck up everything for the entire country for generations.
Nevertheless, this is no reason for paralysis: anything progressives can do to make their lives harder, we should. And nothing can take away the glorious schadenfreude of seeing this election blow up in their faces.
posted by rory at 6:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
George Osborne is like a pig in shit today.
posted by garius at 6:28 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by garius at 6:28 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Is there anyone with a hope of taking over as Tory leader who would fancy the free flying shitfest they would have on their hands if they do? No meaningful majority, keeping Brexit on track, economy looking precarious as a result. It doesn't suggest longevity for the political career. How divided is the party? Could it get behind a Gove or Boris Johnson? Rudd looks weak after last night. Maybe Hammond, but would he want it now?
Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun.
I'm not convinced they will do this. They are aware there is little national appetite for their antediluvian bullshit. I think they are more likely to use it for all sorts of NI specific stuff, getting protection they want out of Brexit and screwing as much money as they can for NI - the latter being basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.
posted by biffa at 6:29 AM on June 9, 2017
Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun.
I'm not convinced they will do this. They are aware there is little national appetite for their antediluvian bullshit. I think they are more likely to use it for all sorts of NI specific stuff, getting protection they want out of Brexit and screwing as much money as they can for NI - the latter being basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.
posted by biffa at 6:29 AM on June 9, 2017
Oddly enough, I literally just now finished reading a chapter about Ian Paisley in a book called "Them: Adventures With Extremists" which should probably give you an indication of what his views were like.
posted by kyrademon at 6:35 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by kyrademon at 6:35 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Boris is so desperate for it he'll take any chance. The others... not so much.
To be honest, a Boris PM-ed Brexit would be soft as hell - his time as London Mayor showed that the one trait he definitely does share with his idol, Churchill, is an ability to utterly disregard ideology for the sake of a quick pragmatic win that he can sell to the public in his own bumbly way. Hell, that's why he backed Leave in the first place.
Not saying I'd want him as PM, personally, as I can't stand the man (and am enormously proud of the fact that at one time, at least, he shared a similar dislike of me). But that would be the one single slither of a silver lining within the blonde, bullying, Bullingdon cloud.
posted by garius at 6:35 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
To be honest, a Boris PM-ed Brexit would be soft as hell - his time as London Mayor showed that the one trait he definitely does share with his idol, Churchill, is an ability to utterly disregard ideology for the sake of a quick pragmatic win that he can sell to the public in his own bumbly way. Hell, that's why he backed Leave in the first place.
Not saying I'd want him as PM, personally, as I can't stand the man (and am enormously proud of the fact that at one time, at least, he shared a similar dislike of me). But that would be the one single slither of a silver lining within the blonde, bullying, Bullingdon cloud.
posted by garius at 6:35 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
I think they are more likely to use it for all sorts of NI specific stuff,
This, for instance...
posted by Mister Bijou at 6:36 AM on June 9, 2017
This, for instance...
Democratic Unionist sources have told the Guardian that one possible sweetener for the party from Theresa May and the Tories is the possible elevation of Peter Robinson to the House of Lords.Grauniad live update
posted by Mister Bijou at 6:36 AM on June 9, 2017
The Tories are a broad church; they were split on Leave/Remain, and I can imagine there would be a number of MPs who don't want part of whatever concession the DUP demand for their support.
Apart from Ken Clarke, are there many staunch Tory Remainers left? Surely most once-Remain Tory MPs have made their peace with the party's Hard Brexit turn, or they wouldn't have stood in this election in the first place.
basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.
Wasn't it the centre-right Ulster Unionists who shored up Major, rather than this creationist-right bunch?
posted by rory at 6:36 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Apart from Ken Clarke, are there many staunch Tory Remainers left? Surely most once-Remain Tory MPs have made their peace with the party's Hard Brexit turn, or they wouldn't have stood in this election in the first place.
basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.
Wasn't it the centre-right Ulster Unionists who shored up Major, rather than this creationist-right bunch?
posted by rory at 6:36 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
If UK citizens need a visa to travel to the EU then there will need to be more stringent checks built in somewhere when crossing into the EU? I guess its possible Ireland could have those in place at its own borders but I'm not sure they will be keen to do so. I am pontificating here but I guess this might make a difference to the negotiations about what UK citizens do need in order to get into the EU post-Brexit.
ROI cannot be a member both of the EU (requiring free movement) and a common travel area agreement with the UK that would require EU citizens to have visas to enter. I suppose they could be a member of both if there is no visa requirement, but then the UK loses the ability to "secure our borders" or whatever, and has to accept EU citizens entering and leaving the county as they please at the very least, even if it doesn't grant the right to employment (and this is when illegal immigration - in the sense of people working without permits - really starts to become a problem).
There's no easy solution here that doesn't involve the UK largely retaining free movement agreements with the EU.
posted by Dysk at 6:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
ROI cannot be a member both of the EU (requiring free movement) and a common travel area agreement with the UK that would require EU citizens to have visas to enter. I suppose they could be a member of both if there is no visa requirement, but then the UK loses the ability to "secure our borders" or whatever, and has to accept EU citizens entering and leaving the county as they please at the very least, even if it doesn't grant the right to employment (and this is when illegal immigration - in the sense of people working without permits - really starts to become a problem).
There's no easy solution here that doesn't involve the UK largely retaining free movement agreements with the EU.
posted by Dysk at 6:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
You might be right, I may be too quick to throw them all on one heap.
posted by biffa at 6:39 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by biffa at 6:39 AM on June 9, 2017
Anna Soubry springs to mind as someone who's probably still quite Remain?
posted by edd at 6:39 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by edd at 6:39 AM on June 9, 2017
I so appreciate this thread, which has really helped me (American ignoramus) understand what's going on in this election. I have no insights to offer myself, but instead will merely share this, perhaps the most glorious post-election-speech photo ever. Mr. Fishfinger: resolute and undaunted, even in defeat.
posted by Kat Allison at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Kat Allison at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Two Scotland related things.
1) Heard Ruth Davidson suggested as a future Tory leader. Could be a smart move, she's more on the wet side of the Tories, not been involved in the internal knife fighting from last time, and is nowhere near as toxic as someone like Gove or Rudd.
2) I think the SNP are going to have to take IndyRef2 off the table for at least five years. If those 15%+ swings were a Unionist alliance where there was a clear second party, they could be in trouble anywhere after this time established who the second party is.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017
1) Heard Ruth Davidson suggested as a future Tory leader. Could be a smart move, she's more on the wet side of the Tories, not been involved in the internal knife fighting from last time, and is nowhere near as toxic as someone like Gove or Rudd.
2) I think the SNP are going to have to take IndyRef2 off the table for at least five years. If those 15%+ swings were a Unionist alliance where there was a clear second party, they could be in trouble anywhere after this time established who the second party is.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017
Yeah, I think the worse things outweigh the better things for the time being too. Just the fact that Theresa May could issue this statement as if everything is business as usual suggests that all the awful things the Tories promised in their manifesto are coming our way. Enjoy your relatively unencumbered web browsing, as who knows how long it will last.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.
OTOH, byelections still happen. And while a vote of no confidence may be ruled out, there's nothing guaranteeing the government the ability to pass legislation when they don't have the numbers. The result would be paralysis for anything that they can't sell to Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP.
Even without byelections, there is the question of party discipline vs. local MPs nervously eyeing their margins and not wanting to be tarred with the brush of the May agenda. And also, given the hung parliament, the convention that the Lords don't block manifesto commitments might not apply.
posted by acb at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.
OTOH, byelections still happen. And while a vote of no confidence may be ruled out, there's nothing guaranteeing the government the ability to pass legislation when they don't have the numbers. The result would be paralysis for anything that they can't sell to Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP.
Even without byelections, there is the question of party discipline vs. local MPs nervously eyeing their margins and not wanting to be tarred with the brush of the May agenda. And also, given the hung parliament, the convention that the Lords don't block manifesto commitments might not apply.
posted by acb at 6:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Just tried to explain the DUP to one of my developers...
HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!
no they really hate republicans
posted by indubitable at 6:41 AM on June 9, 2017 [70 favorites]
HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!
no they really hate republicans
posted by indubitable at 6:41 AM on June 9, 2017 [70 favorites]
Apart from Ken Clarke, are there many staunch Tory Remainers left? Surely most once-Remain Tory MPs have made their peace with the party's Hard Brexit turn, or they wouldn't have stood in this election in the first place
The conventional wisdom was that the Overton Window had moved to the right with UKIP, and the Tories were going to sweep up all those votes. I think a lot of the Tory MPs who supported Remain went with that and kept their heads down. Conventional wisdom doesn't stand up after the results though, so I think they'll be bolder in pushing for a softer Brexit.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:43 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
The conventional wisdom was that the Overton Window had moved to the right with UKIP, and the Tories were going to sweep up all those votes. I think a lot of the Tory MPs who supported Remain went with that and kept their heads down. Conventional wisdom doesn't stand up after the results though, so I think they'll be bolder in pushing for a softer Brexit.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:43 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Yes. Ruth Davidson for one now making a lot of pro-soft-Brexit noises. (After having been pro Remain, pro soft Brexit, and then pro hard Brexit.)
posted by Catseye at 6:45 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 6:45 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Quote from Guardian Liveblog.
Angela Merkel is travelling around South America today, and her spokesperson said that she would not comment on the outcome of the UK elections “out of politeness and respect”.
Could add 'at this time of great loss for Mrs May'.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:46 AM on June 9, 2017 [19 favorites]
Angela Merkel is travelling around South America today, and her spokesperson said that she would not comment on the outcome of the UK elections “out of politeness and respect”.
Could add 'at this time of great loss for Mrs May'.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:46 AM on June 9, 2017 [19 favorites]
"The DUP manifesto has been described as "basically just the bible, with fortnightly bin collections" - HuffPost UK
posted by garius at 6:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by garius at 6:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
I think we should be laying it on heavily to all moderate tories that their party is responsible for creationists being in government.
The DUP are horrific monsters in many ways, but many of those ways are just more extreme versions of the tories. (And we should be nailing them for that too). But creationism is a political punchline. It's a joke.
Make them see that the party they support really has no line when it comes to what they'll do for power.
There are sane, moderate, tory voters out there. They deserve better.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
The DUP are horrific monsters in many ways, but many of those ways are just more extreme versions of the tories. (And we should be nailing them for that too). But creationism is a political punchline. It's a joke.
Make them see that the party they support really has no line when it comes to what they'll do for power.
There are sane, moderate, tory voters out there. They deserve better.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:58 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
May, 4th of June: "There is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country... We need to become far more robust in identifying it and stamping it out across the public sector and across the society."
May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."
Life comes at you fast.
posted by Catseye at 7:01 AM on June 9, 2017 [55 favorites]
May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."
Life comes at you fast.
posted by Catseye at 7:01 AM on June 9, 2017 [55 favorites]
May, 4th of June: "There is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country... We need to become far more robust in identifying it and stamping it out across the public sector and across the society."
May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."
That's going in my letter to my Tory MP then.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:05 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."
That's going in my letter to my Tory MP then.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:05 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
Also, Lord Buckethead dabbing on stage next to Theresa May is my favourite photo I think.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by MattWPBS at 7:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
Not saying I'd want him as PM, personally, as I can't stand the man (and am enormously proud of the fact that at one time, at least, he shared a similar dislike of me).
You can't drop that in a thread and not spill the beans, garius. Please do share.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
You can't drop that in a thread and not spill the beans, garius. Please do share.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Does the DUP actually have a governing agenda? I mean, couldn't May just throw a little garden party and let them wear their sashes and burn the Pope in effigy and then count on their votes for ever and ever amen? They have one issue, union forever. They have no ambitions in the home counties, how much good it would even do one of them back home to have a portfolio in the national government? I mean, they're nutters, but they're very, very parochial nutters.
Seems to me wobbly Tories in soft seats are likely to be May's real problem, not having to kowtow to the dinosaurs in orange...
posted by Diablevert at 7:17 AM on June 9, 2017
Seems to me wobbly Tories in soft seats are likely to be May's real problem, not having to kowtow to the dinosaurs in orange...
posted by Diablevert at 7:17 AM on June 9, 2017
Also, Waterford Whispers on point as usual:
Tories To Make Deal With DUP After Satan Pulls Out
posted by Diablevert at 7:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Tories To Make Deal With DUP After Satan Pulls Out
posted by Diablevert at 7:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Near misses... [seen on Twitter]
The Tories were only 4 seats and a mere 287 votes away from a working majority of 322. And 1,688 votes away from a proper majority of 326.
Equally had the Tories won seven fewer seats they couldn't govern even with the DUP - so we were just 2,227 votes from Corbyn being PM.
posted by rory at 7:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
The Tories were only 4 seats and a mere 287 votes away from a working majority of 322. And 1,688 votes away from a proper majority of 326.
Equally had the Tories won seven fewer seats they couldn't govern even with the DUP - so we were just 2,227 votes from Corbyn being PM.
posted by rory at 7:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Okay, this is a less than ideal outcome, but one thing I'm really, really pleased about is that my Labour MP held on to her seat by a margin of around thirty-five thousand votes. Go, people living in my part of the UK! (I am a filthy foreigner who can't vote. Yet.)
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 7:30 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 7:30 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
FPTP is a very exciting but totally bullshit way to choose governments.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave at 7:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]
The 2 things that May seemed likely to do if given a larger majority was a "Hard" Brexit (basically assuming that the EU would blink and give access to the common market while also maintaining closed borders - not terribly likely) and some sort of increased privatization of the NHS under the guise of austerity.
Now she'll have to bribe the DUP nutcases with all sorts of goodies while also pretending to have a solid negotiating position with Brussels. Honestly no possible solution of the Brexit question will even equal the former favored nation status the UK already had. Some sort of Norwayesque membership in EEA/EFTA that inevitably means compliance with some form of open border if not inclusion in the Schengen Area.
Free Movement is an essential part of the European Free Market and it seems like the EU would be loathe to surrender that principle to the UK. I could see some sort of joint European-North American free trade agreement that would accomplish a similar effect but that would be Europe negotiating with the US on roughly equivalent terms, I can't see the EU wanting to give special treatment to the UK.
Especially given the likelihood that all sorts of business will migrate from London to Paris/Berlin if the UK loses access to the Common Market.
Considering May shows zero political instincts and a tendency to overestimate the strength of her position I think the UK is in for some very interesting times ahead.
posted by vuron at 7:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Now she'll have to bribe the DUP nutcases with all sorts of goodies while also pretending to have a solid negotiating position with Brussels. Honestly no possible solution of the Brexit question will even equal the former favored nation status the UK already had. Some sort of Norwayesque membership in EEA/EFTA that inevitably means compliance with some form of open border if not inclusion in the Schengen Area.
Free Movement is an essential part of the European Free Market and it seems like the EU would be loathe to surrender that principle to the UK. I could see some sort of joint European-North American free trade agreement that would accomplish a similar effect but that would be Europe negotiating with the US on roughly equivalent terms, I can't see the EU wanting to give special treatment to the UK.
Especially given the likelihood that all sorts of business will migrate from London to Paris/Berlin if the UK loses access to the Common Market.
Considering May shows zero political instincts and a tendency to overestimate the strength of her position I think the UK is in for some very interesting times ahead.
posted by vuron at 7:47 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Given her knack for negotiating, perhaps we'll end up having adopted the Euro by accident.
posted by acb at 7:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [28 favorites]
From The Guardian:
According to ITV’s Robert Peston, it’s all getting a bit Malcolm Tucker in the Conservative party.posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [23 favorites]Robert Peston ✔ @Peston
Senior Tory MP: "We all f***ing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally f***ed us".
This thread has been very informative, thank you mefites. After I heard election results this morning on BBC America, I headed straight here, because i figured I'd get solid, condensed, relevant information.
I went to school in England almost 40 years ago, but I don't recall much about British governance, and I believe the whole of parliament has changed since then anyway. Someone spoke above about being raised to the house of lords. Is the lords not hereditary? Can anyone recommend a good primer on the structural makeup of UK government ? Assume my knowledge of it stops in the era of Trollope.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
I went to school in England almost 40 years ago, but I don't recall much about British governance, and I believe the whole of parliament has changed since then anyway. Someone spoke above about being raised to the house of lords. Is the lords not hereditary? Can anyone recommend a good primer on the structural makeup of UK government ? Assume my knowledge of it stops in the era of Trollope.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:09 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
They abolished hereditary peerhoods sometime ago (I think Blair may have presided over this). Now it's a life appointment; a House of the Great and Good if you're idealistic, a House of Cronies if you're cynical.
posted by acb at 8:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 8:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Parliament website has some good primers on how it works. House of Lords is basically partially reformed in a way that nobody's really happy with but nobody can work out how to practically improve.
posted by Catseye at 8:13 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 8:13 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Also, Lord Buckethead dabbing on stage next to Theresa May is my favourite photo I think.
WAIT WAIT WAIT
It says he's running as an independent? He's not with the Gremloids any more? I just... I don't know if I can believe in anything any more.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
WAIT WAIT WAIT
It says he's running as an independent? He's not with the Gremloids any more? I just... I don't know if I can believe in anything any more.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:38 AM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Lord Buckethead cannot be contained.
Except for inside the bucket, obvs.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:50 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Except for inside the bucket, obvs.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:50 AM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
I'm just trying to imagine how it must feel to be 18 right now and feel like you can actually make the world better if you try. How empowering must that be, at such a formative time of life?
As opposed to me in 1992, as a 17-year-old Labour Party activist who genuinely thought we were going to win the election and was so broken when we didn't that I started to slide away from party politics - a slide I completed a few years later when I got so disgusted by Blair's hypocrisy on education that I resigned from the party in my early 20s and never went back.
posted by penguin pie at 9:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
As opposed to me in 1992, as a 17-year-old Labour Party activist who genuinely thought we were going to win the election and was so broken when we didn't that I started to slide away from party politics - a slide I completed a few years later when I got so disgusted by Blair's hypocrisy on education that I resigned from the party in my early 20s and never went back.
posted by penguin pie at 9:00 AM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Is the Scum already flipping out over May giving the keys to the realm across the border? Last time around they seemed oddly concerned Labour would partner up with the SNP.
posted by lmfsilva at 9:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by lmfsilva at 9:06 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Hadley Freeman: Let's all have a moment of silence for the poor soul who this morning will have to explain "hung parliament" to Trump
posted by leotrotsky at 9:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [30 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 9:12 AM on June 9, 2017 [30 favorites]
You can't drop that in a thread and not spill the beans, garius. Please do share.
When Boris Johnson was pushing through the Thames cable car as London Mayor, I ran a piece on LR showing how they were fudging the numbers to make it sound better value than it actually was. In fact, it was actually, arguably the most expensive cable car, per metre, in the world. Everyone from the BBC to Sky picked up the story and ran with it. This led to several awkward interviews for him and City Hall suggested I might want to "revise" our numbers if I wished to continue being invited to press events where the mayor was present. I refused and I was placed on Boris' 'definitely-doesn't-exist' blacklist of journos. This meant you would magically stop receiving invites to things until too late, or your name would somehow fail to make it onto the list at the door etc.
Luckily this didn't affect me much as both TfL (and later Crossrail) would invite me to the events anyway, so I wasn't reliant on the Mayor's office for access. Boris would occasionally see me at these and be clearly annoyed but couldn't say anything about it.
This reaction got worse when we started regularly publishing unedited transcripts of Mayor's Question Time so there'd be an easily searchable record of things he had said or promised in monthly sessions in front of the Assembly. He would often come across as petty, irritable and bullying in these (we stopped doing it when they became far easier to find and browse on the London Assembly website).
Indeed at one event he finally asked me how I'd got an invite. I told him it certainly wasn't from his office and asked him why this was. 'My dear boy,' he said with a friendly smile, 'because you have an erring tendency to tell the truth!"
I later found out that after that event he ordered TfL to stop inviting me to events. The late, great Stuart Ross refused point-blank, and made it very clear that the Mayor's office should not ask again.
So, hardly a great story or Watergate-esque journalism on my part to cause it - but that's Boris.
Having spent far more time than I'd like watching him and being around him, the best way I can describe him is as a smarter, posher version of Donald Trump.
He's immensely charming on a personal level and combined with his intelligence that can make him a formidable force (as it was in getting Crossrail through). Unfortunately he's also utterly self-obsessed, and a physical and psychological bully - particularly of women (this was noticeable week in and out in his interractions at MQT with Val Shawcross and Caroline Pidgeon on the Transport Committee). He also lacks an ounce of loyalty - i saw him throw aides under the metaphorical bus on multiple occasions - and is easily manipulable by anyone he wants to impress.
All that matters to Boris is being thought of as amazing, and being top banana - and anything that serves either of those two ends he will do, almost compulsively, without a second thought - right down to Trump-esque information drops to show he's "in the know" (although I hope the Foreign Office managed to train him out of this).
Weirdly - the bullying aside - that actually made him a very successful Mayor in London. His political pragmatism and obvious threat to Cameron and Osborne was exactly the right combination the city needed to keep the investment tap on at a critical time. And that's what I can sort of see those same traits working out for the UK now if he were PM. Certainly he's no Euro-sceptic. He's one of the most pro-European Tory MPs I've met.
Doesn't change the fact that he's an odious little toad though, as a person. And I would chew my own arm off before I put an X next to his name - directly or indirectly - on a ballot paper.
posted by garius at 9:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [150 favorites]
When Boris Johnson was pushing through the Thames cable car as London Mayor, I ran a piece on LR showing how they were fudging the numbers to make it sound better value than it actually was. In fact, it was actually, arguably the most expensive cable car, per metre, in the world. Everyone from the BBC to Sky picked up the story and ran with it. This led to several awkward interviews for him and City Hall suggested I might want to "revise" our numbers if I wished to continue being invited to press events where the mayor was present. I refused and I was placed on Boris' 'definitely-doesn't-exist' blacklist of journos. This meant you would magically stop receiving invites to things until too late, or your name would somehow fail to make it onto the list at the door etc.
Luckily this didn't affect me much as both TfL (and later Crossrail) would invite me to the events anyway, so I wasn't reliant on the Mayor's office for access. Boris would occasionally see me at these and be clearly annoyed but couldn't say anything about it.
This reaction got worse when we started regularly publishing unedited transcripts of Mayor's Question Time so there'd be an easily searchable record of things he had said or promised in monthly sessions in front of the Assembly. He would often come across as petty, irritable and bullying in these (we stopped doing it when they became far easier to find and browse on the London Assembly website).
Indeed at one event he finally asked me how I'd got an invite. I told him it certainly wasn't from his office and asked him why this was. 'My dear boy,' he said with a friendly smile, 'because you have an erring tendency to tell the truth!"
I later found out that after that event he ordered TfL to stop inviting me to events. The late, great Stuart Ross refused point-blank, and made it very clear that the Mayor's office should not ask again.
So, hardly a great story or Watergate-esque journalism on my part to cause it - but that's Boris.
Having spent far more time than I'd like watching him and being around him, the best way I can describe him is as a smarter, posher version of Donald Trump.
He's immensely charming on a personal level and combined with his intelligence that can make him a formidable force (as it was in getting Crossrail through). Unfortunately he's also utterly self-obsessed, and a physical and psychological bully - particularly of women (this was noticeable week in and out in his interractions at MQT with Val Shawcross and Caroline Pidgeon on the Transport Committee). He also lacks an ounce of loyalty - i saw him throw aides under the metaphorical bus on multiple occasions - and is easily manipulable by anyone he wants to impress.
All that matters to Boris is being thought of as amazing, and being top banana - and anything that serves either of those two ends he will do, almost compulsively, without a second thought - right down to Trump-esque information drops to show he's "in the know" (although I hope the Foreign Office managed to train him out of this).
Weirdly - the bullying aside - that actually made him a very successful Mayor in London. His political pragmatism and obvious threat to Cameron and Osborne was exactly the right combination the city needed to keep the investment tap on at a critical time. And that's what I can sort of see those same traits working out for the UK now if he were PM. Certainly he's no Euro-sceptic. He's one of the most pro-European Tory MPs I've met.
Doesn't change the fact that he's an odious little toad though, as a person. And I would chew my own arm off before I put an X next to his name - directly or indirectly - on a ballot paper.
posted by garius at 9:37 AM on June 9, 2017 [150 favorites]
A true madman would strongarm the DUP by threatening to install Corbyn as PM.
posted by Talez at 9:49 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Talez at 9:49 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
only Corbyn is THE ABSOLUTE MADMAN, this has been established
posted by indubitable at 10:19 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by indubitable at 10:19 AM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Garius - I'm curious - how do you rate Sadiq by comparison. I mean, I like him, and he's a relief after the ... um ... excitements of his predecessors, but I just realised I don't know whether he's effective at all.
posted by Grangousier at 10:24 AM on June 9, 2017
posted by Grangousier at 10:24 AM on June 9, 2017
only Corbyn is THE ABSOLUTE MADMAN, this has been established
Corbyn is such a madman he would take his finger OFF THE BUTTON.
posted by Talez at 10:25 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
Corbyn is such a madman he would take his finger OFF THE BUTTON.
posted by Talez at 10:25 AM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
Theresa May says she will reflect on why Tories lost seats
Presumably this means she's going to spend the weekend looking in a mirror.
posted by howfar at 10:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Presumably this means she's going to spend the weekend looking in a mirror.
posted by howfar at 10:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Presumably this means she's going to spend the weekend looking in a mirror.
Don't be ridiculous.
Theresa May doesn't have a reflection.
posted by Talez at 10:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [38 favorites]
Don't be ridiculous.
Theresa May doesn't have a reflection.
posted by Talez at 10:33 AM on June 9, 2017 [38 favorites]
It's great to volunteer on a longshot campaign and win :D
(Nicola Blackwood's majority was 9582)
posted by Urtylug at 10:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
(Nicola Blackwood's majority was 9582)
posted by Urtylug at 10:40 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
When Boris Johnson was pushing through the Thames cable car as London Mayor...
Thank you garius, I enjoyed that nearly as much as your queuing story.
posted by Happy Dave at 10:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Thank you garius, I enjoyed that nearly as much as your queuing story.
posted by Happy Dave at 10:54 AM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
Judging by the unchanging senior cabinet positions, it looks like they're just going to pretend there never was an election.
posted by dng at 11:07 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by dng at 11:07 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
This is probably a very foolish question from this American who doesn't understand the intricacies of the British system, but I haven't been able to find an answer anywhere. Why doesn't a less odious party offer to form a coalition with the Tories? I get that in some ways the DUP is the key ally for the Tories if they want a majority for their agenda, but it seems like a situation that even many Conservatives find very undesirable. I know the Lib Dems feel burned by how their coalition went last time, but why doesn't the SNP or some other party help form a government in order to block the DUP? Would they be bound in some way to help the Tories carry out their agenda? Is there a reason they can't make a deal, score a few concessions, prevent the extremists from gaining outsized power, and then vote on legislation as they would have anyways, while the Tories could seek support from the DUP on points of common interest without being beholden to them in the same way?
posted by vathek at 11:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by vathek at 11:11 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Garius - I'm curious - how do you rate Sadiq by comparison. I mean, I like him, and he's a relief after the ... um ... excitements of his predecessors, but I just realised I don't know whether he's effective at all.
My experience so far has been that Sadiq is a consummate politician. That lead to several major fuck-ups to begin with, both in his campaign and as Mayor, because he, and the political staffers he parachuted in, were over-confident and failed to understand that the politics of London work very differently to those of Westminster. Most notably there's a real technocratic element to being Mayor, due to the extensive transport portfolio it begins, which you either have to throw yourself entirely into (as Livingstone did) or entirely delegate out (as Boris did to Sir Peter Hendy as Transport Commissioner).
Like Boris, Sadiq also has a self-publicity streak and gets very, very, annoyed if anyone (or any agency) robs him of an opportunity to push his personal brand. It's become a bit of a running joke in certain areas of London's bureaucracy, for example, that you can't put 'the Mayor of London' on a poster or public document anymore. You always have to put 'the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan' or you're likely to get a telling off (keep an eye on posters on the Tube and you'll see this). Similarly, after we openly questioned the maths of his fare's promise in the run up to his election he refused (or at least his team did) to participate in our interview series with every candidate. Which, as a Labour Party member myself, made me fucking furious.
Although I've not witnessed it myself, according to other journos who spend a lot of time at City Hall who I trust, he also has a Boris-esque vindictive streak if you've written something he thinks was unfair (whether it was or not). That vindictive streak extends to his political rivals - which I have witnessed - most notably Conservative MP Chris Grayling, who Khan loathes. The feeling is mutual, and along with Brexit, their mutual drive to screw each other over is one of the primary reasons that rail devolution in London was scuppered (self link) - so that's definitely one strike against him in the effectiveness stakes, which hopefully he's learned from.
Like Boris, he also very clearly has his eyes on the highest prize - being PM. Indeed the general feeling until now has been that he would likely be a one-term Mayor, with him (rightly) having calculated that the office of Mayor was a good way to build up public experience and reputation in an otherwise Tory-dominated political era. And that he'd have looked to get himself back into parliament by the 2020 election so he could be the front-runner to succeed Corbyn. This election, however, has changed that landscape entirely and who knows what that means for Sadiq's plans yet.
All that said... the interactions I've had with him - and this seems also to be the opinion of most other people I know - have left me with the impression that, slippery, political and ambitious as he can be, he is a genuinely decent human being with real convictions and a desire to help create a city (and potentially country) in which anyone can grow up to be anything.
His "son of a bus driver" line became a bit of a meme, but it was absolutely from the heart. And the aforementioned fares blunder was in part caused because he stubbornly refused to give the policy up. Most of the media put that down to bloody-mindedness and a refusal to admit he was wrong, but I actually remember seeing him give a talk when he was a junior minister about how high fares crippled social mobility. There were reasons behind that policy other than trying to be popular (which was partly why I was annoyed he bottled our interview. I wanted to show there was way more nuance to the situation than the mainstream press was pushing).
So basically he's got a fair few of Boris' flaws and is an inveterate politician with (so far at least) a touch more style than substance. But his handling of his campaign - in the face of a rabid, racist counter campaign by Goldsmith, his handling of the terrorism incidents, and his handling of Trump's tweets seem to be showing, he's got a touch of the statesman about him when he needs to be.
Right now, as a party member, he'd absolutely have my vote in a leadership election. And frankly I think he'd walk a General Election.
posted by garius at 11:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [64 favorites]
My experience so far has been that Sadiq is a consummate politician. That lead to several major fuck-ups to begin with, both in his campaign and as Mayor, because he, and the political staffers he parachuted in, were over-confident and failed to understand that the politics of London work very differently to those of Westminster. Most notably there's a real technocratic element to being Mayor, due to the extensive transport portfolio it begins, which you either have to throw yourself entirely into (as Livingstone did) or entirely delegate out (as Boris did to Sir Peter Hendy as Transport Commissioner).
Like Boris, Sadiq also has a self-publicity streak and gets very, very, annoyed if anyone (or any agency) robs him of an opportunity to push his personal brand. It's become a bit of a running joke in certain areas of London's bureaucracy, for example, that you can't put 'the Mayor of London' on a poster or public document anymore. You always have to put 'the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan' or you're likely to get a telling off (keep an eye on posters on the Tube and you'll see this). Similarly, after we openly questioned the maths of his fare's promise in the run up to his election he refused (or at least his team did) to participate in our interview series with every candidate. Which, as a Labour Party member myself, made me fucking furious.
Although I've not witnessed it myself, according to other journos who spend a lot of time at City Hall who I trust, he also has a Boris-esque vindictive streak if you've written something he thinks was unfair (whether it was or not). That vindictive streak extends to his political rivals - which I have witnessed - most notably Conservative MP Chris Grayling, who Khan loathes. The feeling is mutual, and along with Brexit, their mutual drive to screw each other over is one of the primary reasons that rail devolution in London was scuppered (self link) - so that's definitely one strike against him in the effectiveness stakes, which hopefully he's learned from.
Like Boris, he also very clearly has his eyes on the highest prize - being PM. Indeed the general feeling until now has been that he would likely be a one-term Mayor, with him (rightly) having calculated that the office of Mayor was a good way to build up public experience and reputation in an otherwise Tory-dominated political era. And that he'd have looked to get himself back into parliament by the 2020 election so he could be the front-runner to succeed Corbyn. This election, however, has changed that landscape entirely and who knows what that means for Sadiq's plans yet.
All that said... the interactions I've had with him - and this seems also to be the opinion of most other people I know - have left me with the impression that, slippery, political and ambitious as he can be, he is a genuinely decent human being with real convictions and a desire to help create a city (and potentially country) in which anyone can grow up to be anything.
His "son of a bus driver" line became a bit of a meme, but it was absolutely from the heart. And the aforementioned fares blunder was in part caused because he stubbornly refused to give the policy up. Most of the media put that down to bloody-mindedness and a refusal to admit he was wrong, but I actually remember seeing him give a talk when he was a junior minister about how high fares crippled social mobility. There were reasons behind that policy other than trying to be popular (which was partly why I was annoyed he bottled our interview. I wanted to show there was way more nuance to the situation than the mainstream press was pushing).
So basically he's got a fair few of Boris' flaws and is an inveterate politician with (so far at least) a touch more style than substance. But his handling of his campaign - in the face of a rabid, racist counter campaign by Goldsmith, his handling of the terrorism incidents, and his handling of Trump's tweets seem to be showing, he's got a touch of the statesman about him when he needs to be.
Right now, as a party member, he'd absolutely have my vote in a leadership election. And frankly I think he'd walk a General Election.
posted by garius at 11:23 AM on June 9, 2017 [64 favorites]
Ruth Davidson on the DUP coalition plans: As a Protestant Unionist about to marry an Irish Catholic, here's the Amnesty Pride lecture I gave in Belfast... [keynote link]
posted by effbot at 11:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by effbot at 11:24 AM on June 9, 2017 [5 favorites]
Is there a reason they can't make a deal, score a few concessions, prevent the extremists from gaining outsized power, and then vote on legislation as they would have anyways, while the Tories could seek support from the DUP on points of common interest without being beholden to them in the same way?
Well in part you've answered your own question - because the Lib Dems remember all too well what happened to them last time, and the only thing the Tories could offer the SNP is a referendum on Scottish independence, which the Tories will never, ever do again after the scare last time.
posted by garius at 11:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Well in part you've answered your own question - because the Lib Dems remember all too well what happened to them last time, and the only thing the Tories could offer the SNP is a referendum on Scottish independence, which the Tories will never, ever do again after the scare last time.
posted by garius at 11:26 AM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Why doesn't a less odious party offer to form a coalition with the Tories?
The remaining parties that could form a workable coalition are either centrist or center-left with a mix of Scottish Nationalism thrown in. The Lib Dems tried this in 2010 and installed the Torys as leaders after getting promised a referendum on preferential voting which would be fairer but would greatly increase Lib Dem prospects in future elections. The Tories basically stabbed the Lib Dems in the back on the referendum campaigning hard against it, the Lib Dems were mostly seen as co-conspirators to Tory cruelty in their electorates and saw a massive drubbing in 2015 going from 57 seats down to 8.
Nobody else wants to get in bed with them.
posted by Talez at 11:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
The remaining parties that could form a workable coalition are either centrist or center-left with a mix of Scottish Nationalism thrown in. The Lib Dems tried this in 2010 and installed the Torys as leaders after getting promised a referendum on preferential voting which would be fairer but would greatly increase Lib Dem prospects in future elections. The Tories basically stabbed the Lib Dems in the back on the referendum campaigning hard against it, the Lib Dems were mostly seen as co-conspirators to Tory cruelty in their electorates and saw a massive drubbing in 2015 going from 57 seats down to 8.
Nobody else wants to get in bed with them.
posted by Talez at 11:27 AM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
I know the Lib Dems feel burned by how their coalition went last time, but why doesn't the SNP or some other party help form a government in order to block the DUP? Would they be bound in some way to help the Tories carry out their agenda?
They'd never live it down. The progressive/left-of-centre parties are competing for non-Tory voters, and any association with the Tories would irrevocably tarnish their brand. Just passing a budget that was 25% as cruel as it would otherwise have been would make them complicit in what cruelty remains in it. Even guaranteeing confidence for the Tories to keep Torying would taint them in the eyes of some not-insignificant proportion of the electorate.
posted by acb at 11:30 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
They'd never live it down. The progressive/left-of-centre parties are competing for non-Tory voters, and any association with the Tories would irrevocably tarnish their brand. Just passing a budget that was 25% as cruel as it would otherwise have been would make them complicit in what cruelty remains in it. Even guaranteeing confidence for the Tories to keep Torying would taint them in the eyes of some not-insignificant proportion of the electorate.
posted by acb at 11:30 AM on June 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
Like Boris, he also very clearly has his eyes on the highest prize - being PM.
Wow, Garius, I've really been enjoying your contributions to this thread. This is all fascinating stuff.
posted by Ziggy500 at 11:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
Wow, Garius, I've really been enjoying your contributions to this thread. This is all fascinating stuff.
posted by Ziggy500 at 11:32 AM on June 9, 2017 [15 favorites]
Well London politics I can do - as my prediction of a Tory majority at the beginning of this thread shows though, I clearly know bugger all about the wider electorate!
posted by garius at 11:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by garius at 11:51 AM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Look, I know a lot of bleeding hearts are always appalled by the sight of the Conservative party in pursuit, as a wounded leader desperately tries to get back to its foxhole. But I’m afraid those hand-wringers simply don’t understand the traditions involved or the wonderful community bonds that are forged over the activity. Well done to May for supporting its return. (Guardian)
posted by walrus at 12:07 PM on June 9, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by walrus at 12:07 PM on June 9, 2017 [19 favorites]
Confirmed that Labour have taken Kensington by 20 votes.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:06 PM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:06 PM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
Kensington. KENSINGTON. Bloody hell.
posted by Catseye at 1:11 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 1:11 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Labour takes Kensington after high turnout among unemployed steelworkers.
posted by pw201 at 1:12 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by pw201 at 1:12 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
HAAA HAAAA
posted by tel3path at 1:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 1:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."
posted by effbot at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by effbot at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
And they presumably had to count it that carefully cuz they couldn't believe it.
HAAAA HAAAAA
make voting great again
posted by tel3path at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
HAAAA HAAAAA
make voting great again
posted by tel3path at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
theseldomseenkid: "Confirmed that Labour have taken Kensington by 20 votes."
I saw someone on Twitter say that the Conservatives finding out Kensington voted against them is like finding out that one of your own lungs voted against you.
posted by mhum at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [17 favorites]
I saw someone on Twitter say that the Conservatives finding out Kensington voted against them is like finding out that one of your own lungs voted against you.
posted by mhum at 1:19 PM on June 9, 2017 [17 favorites]
tel3path I saw an article quoting the Labour candidate from mid-today who said she'd won the first count and won the second count and then they'd paused the third count so everyone could sleep - so yeah, pretty much, clearly just the Tories refusing to accept it. Poor vote counters!
(My vote counting sympathies are largely with the people of Fife North East where the SNP held the seat by *two votes*. If I was counting votes there, I'd be so paranoid I'd had two papers stuck together or something. Arrrrrgh.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
(My vote counting sympathies are largely with the people of Fife North East where the SNP held the seat by *two votes*. If I was counting votes there, I'd be so paranoid I'd had two papers stuck together or something. Arrrrrgh.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Blair's Labour Party didn't win Kensington (& Chelsea). Didn't come anywhere near. But Corbyn's Labour just won it. I no longer understand anything about UK politics, but I've never been happier to be wrong.
posted by Catseye at 1:41 PM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 1:41 PM on June 9, 2017 [14 favorites]
Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."
That's gonna be worth the fuck-all it's written on.
posted by Artw at 1:45 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
That's gonna be worth the fuck-all it's written on.
posted by Artw at 1:45 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Imperial College has a major campus in South Kensington.
posted by tel3path at 1:50 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 1:50 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
You know despite all May's best efforts to make this end badly, I think it's not gonna end badly.
I had this intuition that Labour might win by a narrow margin or at least make a major impact that went beyond the "nearly winning" usual effect. Like, I had this intuition from the start.
I also thought that Brexit and Trump would win by narrow margins and they did.
So maybe this darkest hour is just before some sort of dawn or something.
posted by tel3path at 1:55 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I had this intuition that Labour might win by a narrow margin or at least make a major impact that went beyond the "nearly winning" usual effect. Like, I had this intuition from the start.
I also thought that Brexit and Trump would win by narrow margins and they did.
So maybe this darkest hour is just before some sort of dawn or something.
posted by tel3path at 1:55 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I think May's going to cling on until everything is fucked but it's too late to stop.
posted by dng at 1:57 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dng at 1:57 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
The minority or narrow majority makes it very difficult for Theresa May's government to carry out legislative functions. But it doesn't make it much more difficult to carry out executive functions.
Passing controversial laws like encryption bans and human rights reductions has become vastly more difficult.
But as for executive functions, the Civil Service still takes all their orders from her ministers. If she has enough political capital in her party to hire and fire ministers, Theresa May still has total control of the executive. If an individual minister is powerful enough in the party that she doesn't dare fire him, power belongs to that minister.
Until the final deal comes up for a vote, negotiating Brexit is largely an executive function. Given that Labour and its MPs are now pro Brexit, it might not be hard for her to get a deal voted up. Unless the political climate changes, most MPs don't want to be seen as thwarting Brexit.
However, if the EU think she might lose power, they might not offer concessions in the hope of getting a more favourable opponent afterwards.
To some degree the Tory Brexiters might be using the election result to back away from elements of the negotiation that they've realised are unrealistic. They might be planning to retain more free movement and blame the DUP when their voters complain.
So it's hard to know what this means for Brexit. It could mean a softer Brexit. It could mean that with fewer concessions on offer from the EU, the Tories use their executive control to just run out the clock with no deal, and leave it for the tabloid enforcers to keep the House of Commons in line on any vote that happens.
But given that they seemed determined on an ultra-hard Brexit beforehand, it seems to me that things are no worse than before, and at least there's a possibility of them being better.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:57 PM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Passing controversial laws like encryption bans and human rights reductions has become vastly more difficult.
But as for executive functions, the Civil Service still takes all their orders from her ministers. If she has enough political capital in her party to hire and fire ministers, Theresa May still has total control of the executive. If an individual minister is powerful enough in the party that she doesn't dare fire him, power belongs to that minister.
Until the final deal comes up for a vote, negotiating Brexit is largely an executive function. Given that Labour and its MPs are now pro Brexit, it might not be hard for her to get a deal voted up. Unless the political climate changes, most MPs don't want to be seen as thwarting Brexit.
However, if the EU think she might lose power, they might not offer concessions in the hope of getting a more favourable opponent afterwards.
To some degree the Tory Brexiters might be using the election result to back away from elements of the negotiation that they've realised are unrealistic. They might be planning to retain more free movement and blame the DUP when their voters complain.
So it's hard to know what this means for Brexit. It could mean a softer Brexit. It could mean that with fewer concessions on offer from the EU, the Tories use their executive control to just run out the clock with no deal, and leave it for the tabloid enforcers to keep the House of Commons in line on any vote that happens.
But given that they seemed determined on an ultra-hard Brexit beforehand, it seems to me that things are no worse than before, and at least there's a possibility of them being better.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:57 PM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."
Well like, then maybe she shouldn't be a fucking Tory, come the fuck on Davidson
posted by Automocar at 1:59 PM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
Well like, then maybe she shouldn't be a fucking Tory, come the fuck on Davidson
posted by Automocar at 1:59 PM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
(eta: clung on till everything FUBARed) She's already done that though.
posted by tel3path at 2:00 PM on June 9, 2017
posted by tel3path at 2:00 PM on June 9, 2017
Sinn Fein are saying that a Tory/DUP alliance would be in violation of the Good Friday agreement. But no worries, everybody: I'm sure if anyone's got the political savviness and advanced diplomatic skills needed to keep Northern Ireland from boiling over, it's Team May!
posted by Catseye at 2:07 PM on June 9, 2017 [29 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:07 PM on June 9, 2017 [29 favorites]
Here's one of the negotiators of the agreements going into a little bit more detail on that.
posted by Copronymus at 2:10 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Copronymus at 2:10 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
So it's hard to know what this means for Brexit. It could mean a softer Brexit. It could mean that with fewer concessions on offer from the EU, the Tories use their executive control to just run out the clock with no deal, and leave it for the tabloid enforcers to keep the House of Commons in line on any vote that happens.
My general feeling is that every moment this trainwreck drags on is a moment closer to a "temporary" Norway-esque arrangement that turns out, in the long run, not to be so temporary. Here's hoping anyway.
Meanwhile, even though I'm not his biggest fan, I'm really loving Corbyn's political Columbo impression.
"Oh, sorry Mrs May. Before I go... just one more constituency..."
posted by garius at 2:17 PM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
My general feeling is that every moment this trainwreck drags on is a moment closer to a "temporary" Norway-esque arrangement that turns out, in the long run, not to be so temporary. Here's hoping anyway.
Meanwhile, even though I'm not his biggest fan, I'm really loving Corbyn's political Columbo impression.
"Oh, sorry Mrs May. Before I go... just one more constituency..."
posted by garius at 2:17 PM on June 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."
And yet partnering with - and empowering - people who are actively denying basic human rights to LGBTI people in NI. I guess she gets a Tory prize for extending the "I'm Alright Jack" philosophy into a whole new arena.
posted by biffa at 2:40 PM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
And yet partnering with - and empowering - people who are actively denying basic human rights to LGBTI people in NI. I guess she gets a Tory prize for extending the "I'm Alright Jack" philosophy into a whole new arena.
posted by biffa at 2:40 PM on June 9, 2017 [7 favorites]
That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan
posted by Catseye at 2:43 PM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:43 PM on June 9, 2017 [18 favorites]
"Didn't they do well?" - a few results of the various fringe and "out there" candidates
* In Mid Sussex, Baron Von Thunderclap secured 464 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* In Devizes, Jim Gunter of the Wessex Regionalists ("Devolution for Wessex") secured 223 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* Across Yorkshire, the Yorkshire Party ("Ay up") ran on a manifesto of Yorkshireness. In Yorkshire East, Timothy Norman secured 1,015 votes, beating the Green Party.
* In Westmorland & Lonsdale, Mr Fishfinger secured 309 votes, coming 4th out of 4.
* In Blaydon, Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild secured 81 votes, coming 7th out of 7.
* In Nottingham East, David Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis Party) secured 19 votes, coming 6th out of 6. n.b. the official statement of persons nominated gives a different party name but this clears it up.
* In Maidenhead, Lord Buckethead secured 249 votes, coming 7th out of 13.
* In Boston and Skegness, Paul Nuttall (recently resigned leader of UKIP) secured 3,308 votes, taking the UKIP share of the vote from 33.8% in 2015 to 7.7% in 2017.
posted by Wordshore at 2:47 PM on June 9, 2017 [21 favorites]
* In Mid Sussex, Baron Von Thunderclap secured 464 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* In Devizes, Jim Gunter of the Wessex Regionalists ("Devolution for Wessex") secured 223 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* Across Yorkshire, the Yorkshire Party ("Ay up") ran on a manifesto of Yorkshireness. In Yorkshire East, Timothy Norman secured 1,015 votes, beating the Green Party.
* In Westmorland & Lonsdale, Mr Fishfinger secured 309 votes, coming 4th out of 4.
* In Blaydon, Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild secured 81 votes, coming 7th out of 7.
* In Nottingham East, David Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis Party) secured 19 votes, coming 6th out of 6. n.b. the official statement of persons nominated gives a different party name but this clears it up.
* In Maidenhead, Lord Buckethead secured 249 votes, coming 7th out of 13.
* In Boston and Skegness, Paul Nuttall (recently resigned leader of UKIP) secured 3,308 votes, taking the UKIP share of the vote from 33.8% in 2015 to 7.7% in 2017.
posted by Wordshore at 2:47 PM on June 9, 2017 [21 favorites]
Democracy, eh? Bloody 'ell! ;-)
All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!
posted by the quidnunc kid at 2:56 PM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!
posted by the quidnunc kid at 2:56 PM on June 9, 2017 [10 favorites]
That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan
Forget what I said before Davidson, we're cool
posted by Automocar at 3:05 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
Forget what I said before Davidson, we're cool
posted by Automocar at 3:05 PM on June 9, 2017 [8 favorites]
What Jeremy Corbyn And The UK Election Should Teach Hillary Clinton — And Democrats
In the wake of a financial crisis, the public does not interpret centrist politics as an appeal to moderation or reasoned debate. It sees centrism as an attempt to rehabilitate the legitimacy of the aristocracy which has just pushed the country into disaster. "Countrymen, I have been approved by the finest minds of the old order as an eminently reasonable leader!" is a poor slogan when measured against "I will crush your enemies and restore your glory!"posted by Joseph Gurl at 3:05 PM on June 9, 2017 [31 favorites]
A much better pitch? "I am on your team and will protect you." This works very well with promises to expand and improve social welfare programs. “I will break the cheating aristocrats who did this to you” can also be effective. In 1932, Franklin Delano Roosevelt put the Democratic Party in power for only the third time since the Civil War by campaigning on a combination of both messages.
Whatever the slogan, anti-authoritarian politicians need to make a clean break with what failed and offer a psychological alternative to authoritarianism’s call for order through violence and suspension of civil liberties.
"Didn't they do well?" - a few results of the various fringe and "out there" candidates
All infinitely better results than poor Paul Dennis in the 2015 local elections: "Rainham North Medway Council election candidate Paul Dennis receives zero votes despite voting for himself."
posted by effbot at 3:10 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
All infinitely better results than poor Paul Dennis in the 2015 local elections: "Rainham North Medway Council election candidate Paul Dennis receives zero votes despite voting for himself."
posted by effbot at 3:10 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Jonathan Pie, ladies and gentlemen. This is so fucken great. Brougth a giant shit-eating grin to my face at 7am on a Saturday morning, sitting in the office, haven't even made a coffee. So good.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 3:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
posted by Joseph Gurl at 3:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [13 favorites]
That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan
Say what you like about the Tories, but they are way better at eating themselves than we (Labour) are. It's sort of impressive. Weirdly.
posted by garius at 3:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Say what you like about the Tories, but they are way better at eating themselves than we (Labour) are. It's sort of impressive. Weirdly.
posted by garius at 3:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Forget what I said before Davidson, we're cool
Except the article says "its 13 MPs would take the Tory whip at the Commons."
So, she (and they) would still be compelled to vote the party line.
posted by GeckoDundee at 3:23 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Except the article says "its 13 MPs would take the Tory whip at the Commons."
So, she (and they) would still be compelled to vote the party line.
posted by GeckoDundee at 3:23 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
> "They'd never live it down. The progressive/left-of-centre parties are competing for non-Tory voters, and any association with the Tories would irrevocably tarnish their brand."
This. If you're American, how would you feel about a Democrat who took a cabinet post in the Trump administration? You're basically asking why a whole political party doesn't do that.
posted by kyrademon at 3:46 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
This. If you're American, how would you feel about a Democrat who took a cabinet post in the Trump administration? You're basically asking why a whole political party doesn't do that.
posted by kyrademon at 3:46 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Kensington. KENSINGTON. Bloody hell.
My hypothesis: in the super-prime areas, many of the ordinary Tory-voting rich have been displaced by non-voting foreign oligarchs, cutting into the Tories' natural buffer.
Are there any public statistics on the size of electoral rolls in electorates year over year that could be used to check this?
posted by acb at 3:50 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
My hypothesis: in the super-prime areas, many of the ordinary Tory-voting rich have been displaced by non-voting foreign oligarchs, cutting into the Tories' natural buffer.
Are there any public statistics on the size of electoral rolls in electorates year over year that could be used to check this?
posted by acb at 3:50 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
*thready exhale punctuated by nervous, disbelieving laughter about the whole thing*
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:01 PM on June 9, 2017
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:01 PM on June 9, 2017
That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan
Erm - Ruth herself has a choice word to say about the veracity of that Telegraph story. She just Tweeted it with the comment: "B****cks. Folk might remember I fought a leadership election on the other side of that particular argument...."
posted by penguin pie at 4:08 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Erm - Ruth herself has a choice word to say about the veracity of that Telegraph story. She just Tweeted it with the comment: "B****cks. Folk might remember I fought a leadership election on the other side of that particular argument...."
posted by penguin pie at 4:08 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Given the 'bawbag' confusion about 10 hours upthread, I should have posted that with a translation for our non-British readers. B****cks = Bollocks = testicles = in this context "total rubbish".
posted by penguin pie at 4:13 PM on June 9, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 4:13 PM on June 9, 2017
> Ruth Davidson on the DUP coalition plans: As a Protestant Unionist about to marry an Irish Catholic...
A Mixed Marriage! o.O
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 4:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
A Mixed Marriage! o.O
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 4:16 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
B****cks = Bollocks = testicles = in this context "total rubbish".
Bollocks was also the theme for the previous UK election thread: Bollocks, that's bollocks!
posted by effbot at 4:36 PM on June 9, 2017
Bollocks was also the theme for the previous UK election thread: Bollocks, that's bollocks!
posted by effbot at 4:36 PM on June 9, 2017
never mind the bollocks here's the brex pistols
posted by delfin at 5:14 PM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by delfin at 5:14 PM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
man that is so rad, i wish exclaiming "Balls!" was more of a thing in American English
posted by indubitable at 5:43 PM on June 9, 2017
posted by indubitable at 5:43 PM on June 9, 2017
man that is so rad, i wish exclaiming "Balls!" was more of a thing in American English
Deez Nuts would like a word.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:47 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Deez Nuts would like a word.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:47 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Bill Clinton branded Jeremy Corbyn 'maddest person in the room', leaked speech reveals
Bill Clinton branded Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn the "maddest person in the room" in a speech he gave explaining the resurgence of left-wing politics in Europe and America.posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:56 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Documents released by Wikileaks show the former President joked that when Mr Corbyn won his leadership contest, it appeared Labour had just "got a guy off the street" to run the party.
Joseph Gurl: "Bill Clinton branded Jeremy Corbyn 'maddest person in the room', leaked speech reveals"
For the sake of clarity, I believe from the context of the last excerpt that Clinton was using "maddest" in the N. American usage as a synonym for "angriest" not "craziest":
posted by mhum at 6:08 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
For the sake of clarity, I believe from the context of the last excerpt that Clinton was using "maddest" in the N. American usage as a synonym for "angriest" not "craziest":
Mr Clinton added: "But what that is reflective of – the same thing happened in the Greek election – when people feel they’ve been shafted and they don’t expect anything to happen anyway, they just want the maddest person in the room to represent them."The "guy off the street" part could cause some confusion, i.e.: I don't think he was comparing Corbyn to a mentally ill homeless person.
posted by mhum at 6:08 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Agreed, but he was making a statement that Corbyn isn't among the traditional ruling elite, the class he expects (wants? I think so) to hold power in general.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:14 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:14 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
We were told Corbyn was ‘unelectable’. Then came the surge
The principal problem with the notion of electability is that it is promoted on the premise that what has not been tried cannot possibly succeed. It suggests the way people see the world at any given moment cannot be changed through argument and activism and instead erects borders for what is permissible discussion and polices them determinedly. Those who dream outside those borders are utopian; those who speak outside them are fools.posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:28 PM on June 9, 2017 [20 favorites]
I seem to remember even Metafilter piling on the "Corbyn is unelectable" train. Let's see... "electoral cut through of a soaked baguette"... "such a prize idiot"... "thick"... " a terrible case of Richard Dawkins disease which manifests whenever he opens his mouth"... "an atrocious leader of Labour"... etc.
posted by clawsoon at 7:03 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 7:03 PM on June 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
Here's a fun one from The Guardian: According to their focus groups, the impression of Labour between 2015 and 2017 changed from "salmon en croute with craft beer" to "spaghetti bolognese or egg and chips".
posted by clawsoon at 9:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 9:22 PM on June 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
I've been catching up on the reasons behind the SNP's losses, but I haven't been able to find much of an analysis as to why the SDLP vote collapsed. Even though they only held three seats, given Sinn Féin's abstentionism it does mean that now there's no N. Irish counterweight to the awful DUP in Parliament. Any thoughts or suggested readings on this score?
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 10:09 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 10:09 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
My guess is that the SDLP's main identity was as the nationalist party that rejected violence, and as the association between Sinn Fein and violence recedes, it's not really clear what the SDLP specifically has to offer. If you're going to vote for a nationalist party, you might as well vote Sinn Fein, and if you don't care that much about nationalism, you might consider voting for someone else. (Does anyone actually vote for Alliance?) And I wonder if people in NI's political loyalties are more focused on NI politics than U.K. politics, so they don't care about those votes meaning they won't be represented in Westminster.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:45 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:45 PM on June 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
And I wonder if people in NI's political loyalties are more focused on NI politics than U.K. politics, so they don't care about those votes meaning they won't be represented in Westminster.
But considering Northern Ireland voted so strongly against Brexit in the referendum, my assumption would have been just the opposite -- i.e., NI nationalists who voted Remain last year would have been more inclined (not less) to want representation in Westminster this time around.
Given that NI is now just about cleanly split between DUP and Sinn Fein (the UUP also having lost their seats, with one Independent hanging on), I guess I'm reading the situation as somewhat of a return to an Us vs. Them political mindset as compared to 2015, but I'm curious as to what the specific reasons are for that and how Brexit factors into it.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:28 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
But considering Northern Ireland voted so strongly against Brexit in the referendum, my assumption would have been just the opposite -- i.e., NI nationalists who voted Remain last year would have been more inclined (not less) to want representation in Westminster this time around.
Given that NI is now just about cleanly split between DUP and Sinn Fein (the UUP also having lost their seats, with one Independent hanging on), I guess I'm reading the situation as somewhat of a return to an Us vs. Them political mindset as compared to 2015, but I'm curious as to what the specific reasons are for that and how Brexit factors into it.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:28 PM on June 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
I seem to remember even Metafilter piling on the "Corbyn is unelectable" train
This was absolutely a thing, to the point I shied off UK politics threads. A lot came from non UK users, I think, but still..
posted by ominous_paws at 11:39 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
This was absolutely a thing, to the point I shied off UK politics threads. A lot came from non UK users, I think, but still..
posted by ominous_paws at 11:39 PM on June 9, 2017 [12 favorites]
Corbyn's three line whip on the article 50 vote to court ex-Labour Kippers was the breaking point for me.
Turns out he was right.
Not sure how I feel about that but Kensington and Chelsea voting Labour is hilarious enough to take the edge off it a bit.
posted by fullerine at 11:52 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
Turns out he was right.
Not sure how I feel about that but Kensington and Chelsea voting Labour is hilarious enough to take the edge off it a bit.
posted by fullerine at 11:52 PM on June 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
With regards to the SDLP, who I used to work for, ArbitraryAndCapricious basically has it. It's a long term trend that the SDLP failed to deal with, just as they failed to deal with it in the Northern Irish Assembly elections.
In particular, I'm really sad Mark Durkan lost his seat in Foyle, he's a wonderful man who did a great job in Westminster.
If I have time, I'll try to write a little more on this later.
posted by knapah at 11:52 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
In particular, I'm really sad Mark Durkan lost his seat in Foyle, he's a wonderful man who did a great job in Westminster.
If I have time, I'll try to write a little more on this later.
posted by knapah at 11:52 PM on June 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I didn't vote Labour because I thought Corbyn was great; I didn't have strong opinions about him either way.
However in circumstances like these, if May calls an election it's clearly our big chance to get her out, so what would you have me do? Normally I'd say vote for your preferred party, however small, because resigning yourself to a two party system is the definition of a self fulfilling prophecy.
I wanted the Lib Dems because they're anti Brexit and the only ones proposing to not go through with it. But I knew if I voted for them I might as well vote Tory. And plenty of people will never forgive them for entering into a coalition with the Tories.
So Labour it was. Then Corbyn came out with some good proposals which he'd worked out the budget for. Those things, like not having tuition fees etc, some are things we had in the past and will do well to have again. And his expenses record s show he's careful with public money and not extravagant himself. He seems pretty honest really.
Which doesn't mean he'd be a great or even competent national leader. But FFS, is he likely to be worse than May or any Tory you can shake a stick at? Of course not.
So my only real option was to give him a go. I don't care what wing he's on, he's better than a Tory and talks sense enough when you bother to listen.
posted by tel3path at 12:24 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
However in circumstances like these, if May calls an election it's clearly our big chance to get her out, so what would you have me do? Normally I'd say vote for your preferred party, however small, because resigning yourself to a two party system is the definition of a self fulfilling prophecy.
I wanted the Lib Dems because they're anti Brexit and the only ones proposing to not go through with it. But I knew if I voted for them I might as well vote Tory. And plenty of people will never forgive them for entering into a coalition with the Tories.
So Labour it was. Then Corbyn came out with some good proposals which he'd worked out the budget for. Those things, like not having tuition fees etc, some are things we had in the past and will do well to have again. And his expenses record s show he's careful with public money and not extravagant himself. He seems pretty honest really.
Which doesn't mean he'd be a great or even competent national leader. But FFS, is he likely to be worse than May or any Tory you can shake a stick at? Of course not.
So my only real option was to give him a go. I don't care what wing he's on, he's better than a Tory and talks sense enough when you bother to listen.
posted by tel3path at 12:24 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
The knives are coming out already - this piece from former Director of Comms, Katie Perrior, was published in the Times today (a Murdoch paper, remember). If paywalled, here's a tweet with highlights. Perrior is gunning for senior members of staff, but it's pretty clear that she's coming for May and implicitly calling her out for arrogant, abusive behaviour.
Tick, tock.
posted by kariebookish at 1:30 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Tick, tock.
posted by kariebookish at 1:30 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Financial Times: How the UK voted in 7 charts
Resolution Foundation: How important was Brexit? (with more charts)
and bonus Ulster Fry: DUP wishlist in full!
posted by Catseye at 2:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Resolution Foundation: How important was Brexit? (with more charts)
and bonus Ulster Fry: DUP wishlist in full!
posted by Catseye at 2:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Wondering if the Queen's speech to open parliament will make reference to a "War on Line Dancing".
posted by Wordshore at 2:49 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 2:49 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm half expecting May to not last the weekend tbh. Even if she does, I'm not sure she'll be able to pass a budget, and I doubt she'll last the summer. The DUP is a shit show, aside from their terrible dinosaur disbelieving views, power sharing collapsed because of their misuse of public money. For chrissakes, this can't be something that was unknown to the UK prime minister.
It shocks me how little English people know about NI, I used to work there occasionally a few years ago, and this seems to have pushed me into expert territory. I know barely anything.
I don't like Jeremy Corbyn. He's pulled it off this election, fair play to him. He seems a very old school socialist, and not great at working with others who don't share his ideological purity. He doesn't have a great track record on equality issues, but many young black British people I know are all over him. And I trust them on most things, so I'm going to try and trust them on this. Like tel3path says, he's our only choice right now. I just hope he's up to the job.
posted by Helga-woo at 3:32 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
It shocks me how little English people know about NI, I used to work there occasionally a few years ago, and this seems to have pushed me into expert territory. I know barely anything.
I don't like Jeremy Corbyn. He's pulled it off this election, fair play to him. He seems a very old school socialist, and not great at working with others who don't share his ideological purity. He doesn't have a great track record on equality issues, but many young black British people I know are all over him. And I trust them on most things, so I'm going to try and trust them on this. Like tel3path says, he's our only choice right now. I just hope he's up to the job.
posted by Helga-woo at 3:32 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Corbyn's unelectability has been such a staple of recent politics that I'm actually doing a double take to realise that he only became leader *after* the last General Election. Was the Miliband era really only two years ago? I feel like Corbyn's been there, hanging on but embattled, for way longer than that.
I guess he did come through Brexit but didn't exactly shine then as he's not the most enthusiastic pro-European.
It's a sign of how much of a given his unelectability has been, that him only just losing an election is seen as a massive political earthquake!
My first newspaper reporter job was in Islington, around 2000/01 and I spent 15 years after that citing him to people as the archetypal career back bencher. I still think that was the case for most of that time. If you could have told 2014 JC he was going to be in this position he would have been as dumbfounded as anyone.
posted by penguin pie at 3:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
I guess he did come through Brexit but didn't exactly shine then as he's not the most enthusiastic pro-European.
It's a sign of how much of a given his unelectability has been, that him only just losing an election is seen as a massive political earthquake!
My first newspaper reporter job was in Islington, around 2000/01 and I spent 15 years after that citing him to people as the archetypal career back bencher. I still think that was the case for most of that time. If you could have told 2014 JC he was going to be in this position he would have been as dumbfounded as anyone.
posted by penguin pie at 3:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
The time dilation is very odd. In 2010 Gordon Brown came to Bradford University on the campaign trail. It was a strange setup but he got a very good reception. I'm sure the memory of that was at least partly responsible for them doing the manifesto launch here this time round. It was in the same space, and I was stood on the balcony looking down on it thinking of all the things that have happened since then. I still think of that space as new.
posted by vbfg at 3:51 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 3:51 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Have to say, the BBC's Newsnight opening was brilliant.
posted by garius at 4:31 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by garius at 4:31 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
OK, so some thoughts on the election result, roughly divided.
The Good
The Good
- Theresa May's plans for horrific legislation: banning encryption, suspending human rights, are now vastly more difficult for her to pass. That tiny majority could be derailed by even a handful of rebels action on principle, or in response to a juicy donation from a tech company
- The power of the right-wing press has been exposed as greatly diminished. As we've seen so many times with Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband (but not the Other Guy who cosied up to the owners) they threw a torrent of abuse against Jeremy Corbyn. This time though instead of sinking in the polls, Corbyn steadily rose. Falling circulations finally mean that they don't decide elections anymore.
- At long last the right wing of the Parliamentary Labour Party seem to be dimly waking to the idea that in an era of populist, anti-establishment sentiment; having a populist, anti-establishment leader could be kind of handy.
- Lynton Crosby's tactics have again shown their limits outside his native Australia. Without compulsory voting it helps to have a positive message to motivate your supporters to actually show up. There were similar problems with his Michael Howard campaign.
- Theresa May's Conservatives still control the executive functions of government. That includes most of the practical Brexit negotiations (though there will be some kind of vote at the very end). They still have a great deal of power.
- I'm still bitter about the PLP's moronic stunts like the serial resignations, the constitutionally meaningless "vote of no confidence". Without them weakening Labour, they'd probably be forming a government now.
- The Conservatives aren't dumb and will be working to make sure the voters who humiliated them don't show up again. They've already been taking lessons from the US right: dodgy redistricting and photo IDs for voting were part of their plans, and they'll do their best to accelerate them. The neutrality rules for broadcasters also are an opportunity cost. (The Labour campaign explicitly relied on them staying relatively if not perfectly neutral). With the Daily Mail reduced, they might try to weaken broadcasting rules to get themselves a British Fox News.
- Next time the Conservative leader is likely to be a much stronger media performer, with a much more appealing manifesto not primarily designed to justify ideological state-shrinking. Labour did well to increase their vote, both in share and in absolute numbers, but need to do even better.
- Some on the Labour right still have a reluctance to look at data that contradicts what they prefer to believe. The data always said Jeremy Corbyn's policies were popular with the public. Poll matchups always showed him doing better than his leadership rivals. But they didn't want to believe mere data that contradicted their gut feeling that Corbyn was hopelessly unelectable. We saw the same thing with Democrats refusal to accept Hillary Clinton's precariously narrow poll lead. But even now some are lamenting that could have done better with one of the "mainstream" candidates. We've got to stop accepting subjective prejudices about "electability" that aren't backed up by data.
Timothy and Hill have just resigned. May's throwing her special advisers under the bus to try and avoid a leadership challenge on Monday.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:25 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:25 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
the BBC's Newsnight opening was brilliant.
BBC Worldservice (radio) has recently started to include this kind of soundbites/"meaningful" music segment in some of its news programmes. I find such infotainment very irritating. I just wish they'd get on with reporting the news.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
BBC Worldservice (radio) has recently started to include this kind of soundbites/"meaningful" music segment in some of its news programmes. I find such infotainment very irritating. I just wish they'd get on with reporting the news.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
not great at working with others who don't share his ideological purity.
Compared to May, a malfunctioning Dalek who blue-screens every time she is not in control, he's Barack Obama.
posted by acb at 5:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Compared to May, a malfunctioning Dalek who blue-screens every time she is not in control, he's Barack Obama.
posted by acb at 5:46 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Compared to May, a malfunctioning Dalek
Aye, you'll find no argument from me there. But he's going to need to work well with other parties right now, and he has a track record of not working well even with different wings within his own party. My experience of Labour in general is that they're not great at working with others.
Hope, hope is all I have.
posted by Helga-woo at 5:59 AM on June 10, 2017
Aye, you'll find no argument from me there. But he's going to need to work well with other parties right now, and he has a track record of not working well even with different wings within his own party. My experience of Labour in general is that they're not great at working with others.
Hope, hope is all I have.
posted by Helga-woo at 5:59 AM on June 10, 2017
This was absolutely a thing, to the point I shied off UK politics threads. A lot came from non UK users, I think, but still..
I guess you're referring to me again (it's not the first time you're doing this "certain non UK users" thing), so feel free to use my username. It may come as a surprise, but a lot of people outside the UK have connections to the country, can read English, and are perfectly capable of having opinions :-)
And my opinion of Corbyn stands; he's a not very bright guy who got most of his political thinking out of a leaflet he stumbled upon in the early seventies and has spent much of his time since hanging out with some seriously nasty people, some of which are now in his inner circle despite having no history in Labour. This isn't something I'm just making up only because I don't think people stuck in the seventies should run countries; it's extensively documented, and won't change just because someone on the Internet thinks foreigners should shut up and go home.
(...as for electability, note that Labour didn't actually win the election; the seat numbers are about the same as for Brown and the 2.5pp difference roughly where the polls were last summer. Heck, last time anyone got more popular votes than May in this election was when Major set the record 25 years ago...)
posted by effbot at 6:05 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
I guess you're referring to me again (it's not the first time you're doing this "certain non UK users" thing), so feel free to use my username. It may come as a surprise, but a lot of people outside the UK have connections to the country, can read English, and are perfectly capable of having opinions :-)
And my opinion of Corbyn stands; he's a not very bright guy who got most of his political thinking out of a leaflet he stumbled upon in the early seventies and has spent much of his time since hanging out with some seriously nasty people, some of which are now in his inner circle despite having no history in Labour. This isn't something I'm just making up only because I don't think people stuck in the seventies should run countries; it's extensively documented, and won't change just because someone on the Internet thinks foreigners should shut up and go home.
(...as for electability, note that Labour didn't actually win the election; the seat numbers are about the same as for Brown and the 2.5pp difference roughly where the polls were last summer. Heck, last time anyone got more popular votes than May in this election was when Major set the record 25 years ago...)
posted by effbot at 6:05 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
The Poet Laureate Carol Ann Duffy has weighed in: Campaign
posted by hawthorne at 6:13 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by hawthorne at 6:13 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
The DUP deal is more of a train wreck than most pundits have realized.
One of the core principles of the process arising from the Good Friday Agreement is that the Westminster government would be politically neutral in the government of Northern Ireland. That's now broken. NI Republicans will see this as a kick in the teeth.
One of the thornier problems of Brexit is the NI/RoI border. It's a deeply complex issue. What is clear is that almost everyone in the North, and a large majority in the South, would like an open border, as they have now. Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all.
The majority in Northern Ireland are going to feel shockingly betrayed by this move. Most Unionists will be unhappy with Westminster becoming a partisan in the situation. Republicans will see it as betraying a farce of artificial neutrality.
The Government of the Republic will see it as politically naive and ill-considered.
May has traded the future prosperity, security and future of Northern Ireland for a few months of executive authority. History will not judge her kindly.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:15 AM on June 10, 2017 [25 favorites]
One of the core principles of the process arising from the Good Friday Agreement is that the Westminster government would be politically neutral in the government of Northern Ireland. That's now broken. NI Republicans will see this as a kick in the teeth.
One of the thornier problems of Brexit is the NI/RoI border. It's a deeply complex issue. What is clear is that almost everyone in the North, and a large majority in the South, would like an open border, as they have now. Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all.
The majority in Northern Ireland are going to feel shockingly betrayed by this move. Most Unionists will be unhappy with Westminster becoming a partisan in the situation. Republicans will see it as betraying a farce of artificial neutrality.
The Government of the Republic will see it as politically naive and ill-considered.
May has traded the future prosperity, security and future of Northern Ireland for a few months of executive authority. History will not judge her kindly.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:15 AM on June 10, 2017 [25 favorites]
I guess you're referring to me again
I was neither referring to nor thinking of you; the timescale for my feeling this spans at least a year. Knowing that someone is tracking my posts in this way does not, however, make me feel any more comfortable in these threads, so thank you for that.
posted by ominous_paws at 6:21 AM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
I was neither referring to nor thinking of you; the timescale for my feeling this spans at least a year. Knowing that someone is tracking my posts in this way does not, however, make me feel any more comfortable in these threads, so thank you for that.
posted by ominous_paws at 6:21 AM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all.
What? No. If there's one thing the DUP is stopped clock on it's that they want a frictionless border with Ireland as part of the exit deal.
posted by Talez at 6:22 AM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
What? No. If there's one thing the DUP is stopped clock on it's that they want a frictionless border with Ireland as part of the exit deal.
posted by Talez at 6:22 AM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
The strange tale of the DUP, Brexit, a mysterious £425,000 donation and a Saudi prince
posted by adamvasco at 6:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 6:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
6kb of Semtex found in Dublin.
Perhaps May's plan is to goad the IRA into resuming its bombing campaign and then pin it on Corbyn. Presto: he becomes unelectable, and the government has a pretext for additional authoritarian measures (the locked-down national intranet, ban on cryptography, detention without trial, and such).
posted by acb at 6:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Perhaps May's plan is to goad the IRA into resuming its bombing campaign and then pin it on Corbyn. Presto: he becomes unelectable, and the government has a pretext for additional authoritarian measures (the locked-down national intranet, ban on cryptography, detention without trial, and such).
posted by acb at 6:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
One of the thornier problems of Brexit is the NI/RoI border. It's a deeply complex issue. What is clear is that almost everyone in the North, and a large majority in the South, would like an open border, as they have now. Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all
As Tale says, this is not true at all. The DUP want an open border.
posted by knapah at 6:43 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
As Tale says, this is not true at all. The DUP want an open border.I stand corrected! The DUP wants an open border with the Republic as a matter of manifesto policy. Thanks for the correction. They are, however, also staunch supporters of Brexit.
The EU has made it very clear that there can't be an open border, for very obvious reasons, so being supporters of Brexit and proponents of an open border is an unreaslistic, idealistic and frankly ridiculous proposition. I think that's where my error arose.
My main point - and I think it will prove to be a difficult one - is that by entering into a formal alliance with a partisan faction in Northern Ireland, the Westminster Government has betrayed a core underlying principle of the Good Friday process, and that's going to piss a lot of people off.
Some of those people have long memories of less happy times. The long plan in Northern Ireland was to maintain political peace for long enough for memories of political violence to fade.
Theresa May is not helping.
She should have told the DUP to piss up a rope, and governed from a minority.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:55 AM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
What? No. If there's one thing the DUP is stopped clock on it's that they want a frictionless border with Ireland as part of the exit deal.
I am no kind of expert on this, but as far as I can tell the DUP seem to want a number of things:
1) Brexit
2) immigration controls
3) no hard border between RoI and N.I.
4) no hard border between N.I. and the rest of the UK
5) no special status for N.I. as part of Brexit -- if the UK's out they want out
You cannot have all these things. You can have
1, 3, 4 and 5 but not 2, or
1, 2, and 5 but not either 3 or 4, or
1, 2, 3, and 4 but not 5.
It's not at all clear to me how the DUP would prioritize these various policies, but I suspect that 3's at the bottom, which is not where the majority in N.I. would put it.
I mean, if May's out in 6 months it probably doesn't matter what DUP's priorities are. But her 12 months of bullshit, pabulum and water-treading have been for the purpose of obfuscating these irreconcilable conflicts. At some point the rubber's got to meet the road.
posted by Diablevert at 6:58 AM on June 10, 2017 [10 favorites]
I am no kind of expert on this, but as far as I can tell the DUP seem to want a number of things:
1) Brexit
2) immigration controls
3) no hard border between RoI and N.I.
4) no hard border between N.I. and the rest of the UK
5) no special status for N.I. as part of Brexit -- if the UK's out they want out
You cannot have all these things. You can have
1, 3, 4 and 5 but not 2, or
1, 2, and 5 but not either 3 or 4, or
1, 2, 3, and 4 but not 5.
It's not at all clear to me how the DUP would prioritize these various policies, but I suspect that 3's at the bottom, which is not where the majority in N.I. would put it.
I mean, if May's out in 6 months it probably doesn't matter what DUP's priorities are. But her 12 months of bullshit, pabulum and water-treading have been for the purpose of obfuscating these irreconcilable conflicts. At some point the rubber's got to meet the road.
posted by Diablevert at 6:58 AM on June 10, 2017 [10 favorites]
Perhaps May's plan is to goad the IRA into resuming its bombing campaign and then pin it on Corbyn.
May being incompetent enough to let terrorist attacks happen and then getting everyone to rally around her when they do does not seem to be a thing that works out for her.
posted by Artw at 6:59 AM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
May being incompetent enough to let terrorist attacks happen and then getting everyone to rally around her when they do does not seem to be a thing that works out for her.
posted by Artw at 6:59 AM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
Some of those people have long memories of less happy times.
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:02 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Much focus will now fall upon the [DUP’s] leader, Arlene Foster, a tough character whose politics were influenced by the Troubles. At the age of eight, her father, a part-time policeman, was shot and injured by the IRA on the family farm.From climate denial to abortion: six DUP stances you should know about (Gruaniad)
In 1988 a bomb exploded under the teenager’s school bus while it was being driven by a part-time soldier in the British army’s Ulster Defence Regiment.
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:02 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
It's not at all clear to me how the DUP would prioritize these various policies, but I suspect that 3's at the bottom, which is not where the majority in N.I. would put it.
It would be courageous (in the Sir Humphrey sense) for the DUP to just nuke the Good Friday Agreement.
posted by jaduncan at 7:09 AM on June 10, 2017
It would be courageous (in the Sir Humphrey sense) for the DUP to just nuke the Good Friday Agreement.
posted by jaduncan at 7:09 AM on June 10, 2017
WHAT THE HELL IS THIS, part 487. Robert Peston reporting on his Facebook page:
posted by Catseye at 7:09 AM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Theresa May is trying to persuade the ten DUP MPs to enter into a formal coalition agreement with the Tories, as opposed to a less formal "confidence and supply" arrangement, ministers tell meThere are not even any words for how terrible an idea that is. A confidence and supply agreement is bad enough, but they're actually going to form a government with the DUP? What the hell are they DOING?
The prime minister has sent a team of officials, led by her chief whip, Gavin Williamson, to Belfast to negotiate the details of an alliance with the DUP.
posted by Catseye at 7:09 AM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
If Theresa May is still in control by this time next week, I will be very, very surprised.
🎶 This shit is bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S. 🎶
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
🎶 This shit is bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S. 🎶
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
Welcome to the offices of the Democratic Unionist Party. If you're talking to us, your career must be in trouble.
posted by Grangousier at 7:18 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 7:18 AM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
The charitable part of me wants to say that they're desperately panicking, but a steadfast refusal to engage with reality has been the defining feature of May's leadership of the Tory party so far. I really think they're just too selfish to govern, and too stupid to understand that governing is an actual responsibility, which requires you to have some level of competence if you want to be allowed to continue. It's not actually enough just to make Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre happy. Their horrific symbiotic relationship with the right wing press has allowed the Tory party to think that they can get away with anything as long as it's fucked up and selfish enough, and May, being the dimwit she is, isn't able to read the writing on the wall.
posted by howfar at 7:20 AM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by howfar at 7:20 AM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
but a steadfast refusal to engage with reality has been the defining feature of May's leadership of the Tory party so far.
Trump is rubbing off on her.
Hell, she's still going to embark on her steamrolling of remaining civil liberties and thinks her government is going to provide stability.
I know she's probably trying to carry on but she only looks delusional at this point.
posted by Talez at 7:31 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Trump is rubbing off on her.
Hell, she's still going to embark on her steamrolling of remaining civil liberties and thinks her government is going to provide stability.
I know she's probably trying to carry on but she only looks delusional at this point.
posted by Talez at 7:31 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Scotland's The Herald newspaper front page, a candidate for inclusion in Private Eye's "Malgorithm" column?
The Herald
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
The Herald
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:36 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Heh, someone on Reddit pointed out that Brussels are going to get the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. Couldn't be more perfect given the circumstances.
posted by Talez at 7:36 AM on June 10, 2017
posted by Talez at 7:36 AM on June 10, 2017
Yeah, that sounds like a Reddit joke.
posted by Pope Guilty at 7:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Pope Guilty at 7:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
Also featured on last night's The Last Leg.
posted by mushhushshu at 8:15 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by mushhushshu at 8:15 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's also all over Twitter. I'm personally not a huge fan of it as it plays into the misogyny now so pervasive and directed at female politicians (mostly notably Diane Abbott in recent days, and I've seen it aimed squarely at Arlene Forster this morning). We should and can be better than using words derived from women's bodies as slurs.
posted by kariebookish at 8:19 AM on June 10, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by kariebookish at 8:19 AM on June 10, 2017 [20 favorites]
Here's a (*sigh*) thread of Tweets that offers some insight on the deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland. I'm an outsider so this was news to me and paints a pretty dire picture.
posted by indubitable at 8:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by indubitable at 8:41 AM on June 10, 2017 [28 favorites]
Getting into bed with the DUP is like pulling the pin on a hand grenade and then walking around with it saying “look, it’s perfectly safe, I can put the pin back any time”. Sure, but you’re also one slip away from an explosion of violence.
But it’s all of a piece with the *total* ignorance and lack of interest in the effect of Brexit on NI & the peace process displayed by the Brexiteers.
posted by pharm at 8:58 AM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
But it’s all of a piece with the *total* ignorance and lack of interest in the effect of Brexit on NI & the peace process displayed by the Brexiteers.
posted by pharm at 8:58 AM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Kensington is fascinating. Centuries of old money voting Tory, gradually pushed out by Russian oligarchs and non-domiciled millionaires who haven't got a vote there.
Also: 1200 students in the Imperial College halls of residence in Prince's Gardens and Prince Consort Road.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 9:18 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Also: 1200 students in the Imperial College halls of residence in Prince's Gardens and Prince Consort Road.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 9:18 AM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Though 67% of Imperial's intake is international students, so a lot of them can't vote. The overall swing and increase in voter turnout for Kensington was more than ~400 students, so there are probably other factors. I think since the boundaries shifted in 2010, the Chelsea and Fulham constituency got more of the unabashedly posh bits, whereas the Kensington constituency contains a lot of the social housing in the borough.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 9:30 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by theseldomseenkid at 9:30 AM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Politics expert Matthew Goodwin eats his book live on Sky News
(According to a Sky producer on twitter he didn't actually eat it)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:07 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
(According to a Sky producer on twitter he didn't actually eat it)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:07 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
I've noticed UKIP didn't field a candidate, either. Considering there was a trend where a part of UKIP voters didn't flee to the Tories, but likely went back to Labour, this could have played another small (2015 candidate had something around 1500 votes) part in the shift. I wonder if May's own goal was underestimating the percentage of UKIP voters that were NuLabour-disfranchised working class as opposed to anti-EU conservatives.
posted by lmfsilva at 11:18 AM on June 10, 2017
posted by lmfsilva at 11:18 AM on June 10, 2017
DUP announce confidence and supply deal with Conservatives. So not a coalition thankfully, but there aren't many other silver linings to find from that.
posted by Catseye at 11:38 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 11:38 AM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Well, I think the silver lining is that they have now entirely conceded the centre ground of British politics on all social issues, while still being almost entirely unable to push through their right-wing agenda. That'll do me.
posted by howfar at 12:03 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by howfar at 12:03 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Except that all it takes to block any legislation is five rebel Tories. I can guarantee many, many more than that do not like the DUP...
posted by Devonian at 12:06 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 12:06 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Don't see how this lasts.
posted by Ironmouth at 12:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Ironmouth at 12:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Don't see how this lasts
I, like you, do not believe it will. For all sorts of reasons. The question of Brexit is, of course, the thorniest one. There remain a good number of genuinely passionate pro-Europeans in the parliamentary Tory party, most notably Clarke, of course, but there are a plenty of others. Now, you can whip a bit, but you can't whip hard without a minority and a confidence and supply agreement that keeps your government functional by the skin of its teeth. How May can hope to retain credibility if she tries to go into exit negotiations without even being able to guarantee she can avoid the deal being prevented by Parliament (remember that the legislature in Britain can always take power back from the executive with a single simple majority vote)? It's just not possible. She can't "get to work", no matter what she deludes herself into thinking is possible.
But it's not just Brexit. Fault lines could open up anywhere. Social justice issues could develop into a rift if Arlene and her vile bullies start opening their mouths about things that most people in the UK disagree with them about - most notably sexuality and women's rights, I think. May might be willing for the Tories to go back to being the nasty party in order to hang on to power, but the changes that Cameron led on some social issues were not wholly cosmetic. Just as a matter of personal identification, there are 4 (I think?) Tory MPs who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual. I'm sure they're used to dealing with the barely repressed homophobia of many of their Tory colleagues, and of course sexuality does not define how people choose to vote or what they choose to support, but given all the straight identifying Tory MPs who aren't bigots on this issue, you can see how a hugely damaging row might emerge very quickly if the DUP start throwing their weight around.
Those are just two of the things that occur to me off the top of my head. Who knows where the actual fault lines will emerge, but they will emerge. It's a cowardly and self-serving betrayal of our country for May to piss away time like this, when the clock is ticking on the single most complex agenda of negotiation and legislation that the UK has ever faced. It's despicable, and it will collapse, but what a fucking mess they're making in the meantime.
posted by howfar at 1:21 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
I, like you, do not believe it will. For all sorts of reasons. The question of Brexit is, of course, the thorniest one. There remain a good number of genuinely passionate pro-Europeans in the parliamentary Tory party, most notably Clarke, of course, but there are a plenty of others. Now, you can whip a bit, but you can't whip hard without a minority and a confidence and supply agreement that keeps your government functional by the skin of its teeth. How May can hope to retain credibility if she tries to go into exit negotiations without even being able to guarantee she can avoid the deal being prevented by Parliament (remember that the legislature in Britain can always take power back from the executive with a single simple majority vote)? It's just not possible. She can't "get to work", no matter what she deludes herself into thinking is possible.
But it's not just Brexit. Fault lines could open up anywhere. Social justice issues could develop into a rift if Arlene and her vile bullies start opening their mouths about things that most people in the UK disagree with them about - most notably sexuality and women's rights, I think. May might be willing for the Tories to go back to being the nasty party in order to hang on to power, but the changes that Cameron led on some social issues were not wholly cosmetic. Just as a matter of personal identification, there are 4 (I think?) Tory MPs who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual. I'm sure they're used to dealing with the barely repressed homophobia of many of their Tory colleagues, and of course sexuality does not define how people choose to vote or what they choose to support, but given all the straight identifying Tory MPs who aren't bigots on this issue, you can see how a hugely damaging row might emerge very quickly if the DUP start throwing their weight around.
Those are just two of the things that occur to me off the top of my head. Who knows where the actual fault lines will emerge, but they will emerge. It's a cowardly and self-serving betrayal of our country for May to piss away time like this, when the clock is ticking on the single most complex agenda of negotiation and legislation that the UK has ever faced. It's despicable, and it will collapse, but what a fucking mess they're making in the meantime.
posted by howfar at 1:21 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Here's a (*sigh*) thread of Tweets that offers some insight on the deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland.
Thanks so much for posting this, indubitable -- very, very helpful. As an outsider, I was aware of the basic outlines of the Arlene Foster scandal, but I wasn't fully aware of the broader context of the collapse of power-sharing and ensuing paralysis.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 1:28 PM on June 10, 2017
Thanks so much for posting this, indubitable -- very, very helpful. As an outsider, I was aware of the basic outlines of the Arlene Foster scandal, but I wasn't fully aware of the broader context of the collapse of power-sharing and ensuing paralysis.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 1:28 PM on June 10, 2017
I'm liking the reports that the Tories told May that a formal coalition with the DUP was unacceptable because of its takes on climate change. LGBQT equality, social justice, etc.
Makes you realise how skewed US politics is.
posted by Devonian at 1:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [6 favorites]
Makes you realise how skewed US politics is.
posted by Devonian at 1:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [6 favorites]
But it's not just Brexit. Fault lines could open up anywhere.
Not to mention that joining forces with the DUP seems like a pretty clear breach of (the spirit of) the Good Friday agreement, especially considering the currently deadlocked state of the power sharing arrangement.
Basically it seems like Theresa May is determined to destroy absolutely everything so she can carry out the "will of the people", whatever that actually is anymore. It's fucking insane
posted by dng at 1:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Not to mention that joining forces with the DUP seems like a pretty clear breach of (the spirit of) the Good Friday agreement, especially considering the currently deadlocked state of the power sharing arrangement.
Basically it seems like Theresa May is determined to destroy absolutely everything so she can carry out the "will of the people", whatever that actually is anymore. It's fucking insane
posted by dng at 1:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Just as a matter of personal identification, there are 4 (I think?) Tory MPs who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual.
There are now 19 out LGBTQ Tory MPs, plus Ruth Davidson as Scottish leader.
posted by penguinliz at 1:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
There are now 19 out LGBTQ Tory MPs, plus Ruth Davidson as Scottish leader.
posted by penguinliz at 1:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
If there's one thing I remember from growing up in the early 90s, it's that there's no party like the Tories for infighting, backstabbing and machinations. And that was when they had a workable majority.
posted by Happy Dave at 1:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Happy Dave at 1:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
There are now 19 out LGBTQ Tory MPs, plus Ruth Davidson as Scottish leader.
Christ. I didn't realise quite how much things have changed over recent years (and days). Thank you for correcting me!
posted by howfar at 1:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Christ. I didn't realise quite how much things have changed over recent years (and days). Thank you for correcting me!
posted by howfar at 1:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
As an ignorant Yankee watching from across the pond, can anyone reconcile the statements from Ruth Davidson regarding Scottish Tory values, the chaos in North Ireland and how confidence and supply with DUP is even short term tenable in this environment? Or is it as irreconcilable as it seems?
posted by meinvt at 1:45 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by meinvt at 1:45 PM on June 10, 2017
I had no idea until you posted that thread, indubitable, about the Cash for Ash scandal (more from Wikipedia) that Arlene Foster oversaw: a renewable energy promotion scheme with no cap that amounted to just outright paying people to use more energy.
Some days I suspect Iannucci wonders why he even needs to get out of bed with reality being this incompetent.
posted by zachlipton at 1:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Some days I suspect Iannucci wonders why he even needs to get out of bed with reality being this incompetent.
posted by zachlipton at 1:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
It's not necessarily as irreconcilable as it seems. It just needs the DUP to pick their battles and be reasonable.
Here's Ian Paisley shouting at the pope with a never ending supply of abusive posters in his pocket.
posted by vbfg at 1:49 PM on June 10, 2017 [6 favorites]
Here's Ian Paisley shouting at the pope with a never ending supply of abusive posters in his pocket.
posted by vbfg at 1:49 PM on June 10, 2017 [6 favorites]
Or is it as irreconcilable as it seems?
Pretty much. This isn't so much a house of cards as a house of half-shredded party flyers, soaked in petrol, surrounded by sparking electrical wires.
posted by Happy Dave at 1:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Pretty much. This isn't so much a house of cards as a house of half-shredded party flyers, soaked in petrol, surrounded by sparking electrical wires.
posted by Happy Dave at 1:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Here's Ian Paisley shouting at the pope with a never ending supply of abusive posters in his pocket
So much shade: "The Pope, waiting with a text which spoke of Europe as the beacon of civilization, looked on with faint amusement."
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
So much shade: "The Pope, waiting with a text which spoke of Europe as the beacon of civilization, looked on with faint amusement."
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Hunting around some more re: N. Ireland, I found this article at Foreign Policy pretty illuminating. The key point for me in understanding what's happened is this:
The collapse of the government [in the wake of the Foster scandal] triggered an election in early March. The vote took place in the shadow of a Brexit campaign that has raised deep-seated fears and divisions in Northern Ireland — about the potential implications of a new, hard border with the Republic of Ireland, but also about the potential loss of funding for community-building projects, much of which necessarily comes from the European Union because money from London or Dublin might be seen as partisan.posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:04 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Lingering bitterness over the Brexit campaign bled into the March vote: Sinn Fein, the largest nationalist party, had campaigned openly in favor of the U.K. remaining a part of the EU and cast the decision to leave as yet more evidence of England overriding the interests of Northern Ireland. The DUP, for its part, had backed Brexit as a necessity for regaining British sovereignty. Both the DUP and Sinn Fein urged voters from across the North to vote on the basis of being unionists or republicans, and to endorse the two hard-line parties accordingly, rather than their more moderate counterparts (the Ulster Unionist Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, respectively).
If this has already been linked here, forgive me; I did look back in the thread a bit.
Anthony Lane in The New Yorker: The Book Of Jeremy Corbyn.
posted by hippybear at 2:05 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Anthony Lane in The New Yorker: The Book Of Jeremy Corbyn.
posted by hippybear at 2:05 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Ah that brought back memories. What it was to turn on the telly and see Ian Paisley's shouting face. Or Maggie Thatcher's gimlet eyes and the various Tory gobs of flab who professed to find her "sexy" (am I kinkshaming? hashtag sorry not sorry).
Remember when the very concept of gay marriage was considered extremist? I do. Times *have* changed for the better in many ways.
If only Labour would implement their free tuition and free chocolate on Fridays plan and build lots of social housing (and land tax but it's only the fringe Youth Party that's proposing that) then everything would be perfect.
Except Brexit.
shit i made myself sad
posted by tel3path at 2:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
Remember when the very concept of gay marriage was considered extremist? I do. Times *have* changed for the better in many ways.
If only Labour would implement their free tuition and free chocolate on Fridays plan and build lots of social housing (and land tax but it's only the fringe Youth Party that's proposing that) then everything would be perfect.
Except Brexit.
shit i made myself sad
posted by tel3path at 2:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
Just seen on Twitter:
On who would make best Prime Minister:
T. May: 39% (-4)
J. Corbyn: 39% (+7)
(via @YouGov & @ShippersUnbound / 09 - 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 07 Jun
posted by Ironmouth at 2:29 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
On who would make best Prime Minister:
T. May: 39% (-4)
J. Corbyn: 39% (+7)
(via @YouGov & @ShippersUnbound / 09 - 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 07 Jun
posted by Ironmouth at 2:29 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
@ChuckTingle: please enjoy new tingler for british buds ENGLAND'S ASS IS HAUNTED BY A HUNG PARLIAMENT out now
posted by howfar at 2:34 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by howfar at 2:34 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
I love Dr Tingle's prompt explanation of why his new work refers to 'England' rather than 'The United Kingdom'.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [16 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 2:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [16 favorites]
TIL that Chuck Tingle's books occur in a single universe with consistent canon.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:57 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:57 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
A Serious Political Science guy who said he would eat his book if Labour got 38% or more of the vote is currently eating his book
posted by Joseph Gurl at 2:57 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Joseph Gurl at 2:57 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Irish Times - Contradictions and denials
The Brexit position of the DUP – who will be relied on to support the new government – neatly sums up the contradictions and denials that lie behind the Brexit jargon. The DUP is for Brexit but wants a frictionless Irish Border.
From before the polls: History haunts this place: how Brexit is fuelling Ireland's sectarian debate.
posted by adamvasco at 3:02 PM on June 10, 2017
The Brexit position of the DUP – who will be relied on to support the new government – neatly sums up the contradictions and denials that lie behind the Brexit jargon. The DUP is for Brexit but wants a frictionless Irish Border.
From before the polls: History haunts this place: how Brexit is fuelling Ireland's sectarian debate.
posted by adamvasco at 3:02 PM on June 10, 2017
Thanks for the Northern Ireland context, discussion of it has been sadly missing from the past year or so of UK political coverage over here and ugggggh I am even more nervous now.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 3:31 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 3:31 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 45% (+5)
CON: 39% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)
(via @Survation / 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ GE2017
In the history books they will call this the Crisis of the Early 20th Century, even though it started in the mid-Eighties.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:04 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
LAB: 45% (+5)
CON: 39% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)
(via @Survation / 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ GE2017
In the history books they will call this the Crisis of the Early 20th Century, even though it started in the mid-Eighties.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:04 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
It doesn't really get discussed in UK political coverage either. There is a surprising and honestly shameful lack of awareness or interest in most of politics in the U.K. outside England, and while this is annoying enough for us here in Scotland it's even worse for NI. I was trying to watch the coverage of the last NI elections in the BBC Politics channel and even they kept cutting away to cover something else entirely as the votes were coming in, as if even a channel whose entire purpose is to cover UK politics can't really be bothered with Northern Ireland. This is how we've ended up with a year of Brexit coverage 24/7 where hardly anyone in politics or media has even mentioned Northern Ireland, and how cosying up to the DUP could start to seem like even a remotely good idea for a U.K. government. It is ridiculous and shameful and we should do better.
posted by Catseye at 4:05 PM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 4:05 PM on June 10, 2017 [19 favorites]
There's more:
Following the GE result, Theresa May...
Should resign as Prime Minister: 49%
Should not resign as Prime Minister: 38%
(Survation / 10 Jun)
posted by Ironmouth at 4:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Following the GE result, Theresa May...
Should resign as Prime Minister: 49%
Should not resign as Prime Minister: 38%
(Survation / 10 Jun)
posted by Ironmouth at 4:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
I wonder if SF will abandon abstemptionim. Seems a good time.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:10 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Ironmouth at 4:10 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Mod note: Guys, don't go after each other nastily either directly or by subtweeting their comments. Engage directly with ideas, not by attacking the other poster. If another user is hassling you, contact the mods and we'll help.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 4:20 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 4:20 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Mohammad Salemy:
For the first time in my memory, the centrists in a left wing party were forced to shut up, accept the leadership of a socialist, campaign for his agenda, and see the party does better than before. This hopefully will change everything in regards to the fortunes of democratic socialism in the west.posted by Joseph Gurl at 4:24 PM on June 10, 2017 [15 favorites]
I, like you, do not believe it will. For all sorts of reasons. The question of Brexit is, of course, the thorniest one. There remain a good number of genuinely passionate pro-Europeans in the parliamentary Tory party, most notably Clarke, of course, but there are a plenty of others. Now, you can whip a bit, but you can't whip hard without a minority and a confidence and supply agreement that keeps your government functional by the skin of its teeth. How May can hope to retain credibility if she tries to go into exit negotiations without even being able to guarantee she can avoid the deal being prevented by Parliament (remember that the legislature in Britain can always take power back from the executive with a single simple majority vote)? It's just not possible. She can't "get to work", no matter what she deludes herself into thinking is possible.
Would pro-Brexit Tory and Labour MPs together constitute a majority? If so, could May rely on the Labour MPs voting for a deal to thwart Tory “remoaners”?
posted by acb at 4:28 PM on June 10, 2017
Would pro-Brexit Tory and Labour MPs together constitute a majority? If so, could May rely on the Labour MPs voting for a deal to thwart Tory “remoaners”?
posted by acb at 4:28 PM on June 10, 2017
That would certainly be the thing to split Labour for good, also vastly unlikely.
posted by Artw at 4:30 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:30 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.
posted by Devonian at 4:34 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 4:34 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.
Never go full Trump.
posted by acb at 4:36 PM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
Never go full Trump.
posted by acb at 4:36 PM on June 10, 2017 [13 favorites]
What happens if they can't form a government? Another election?
I can't imagine that Sinn Fein would (or could, really) abandon abstentionism, but who this seems like a bit of an all-bets-are-off election, so who knows.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:36 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
I can't imagine that Sinn Fein would (or could, really) abandon abstentionism, but who this seems like a bit of an all-bets-are-off election, so who knows.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:36 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Presumably this is evidence of those strong and stable negotiating skills the conservatives have been promising us.
Does this count as uncertain certainty or certain uncertainty?
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Does this count as uncertain certainty or certain uncertainty?
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
What happens if they can't form a government? Another election?
Labour gets a turn to form government. If Labour can't get confidence and supply from anyone it goes to another election.
posted by Talez at 4:41 PM on June 10, 2017
Labour gets a turn to form government. If Labour can't get confidence and supply from anyone it goes to another election.
posted by Talez at 4:41 PM on June 10, 2017
Remember when the AHCA was going through and the freedom caucus were holding it hostage but if they gave the freedom caucus too much moderates would torpedo the whole thing?
That's the needle Theresa May is trying to thread right now. Poorly by the sounds of it.
posted by Talez at 4:44 PM on June 10, 2017
That's the needle Theresa May is trying to thread right now. Poorly by the sounds of it.
posted by Talez at 4:44 PM on June 10, 2017
The DUP are also the party one of whose councillors moved to ban the sale of alcohol at a beer festival.
If this doesn't hole any deal with them below the waterline, I don't know what will. The British people can (grumblingly) put up with a lot, but not this Taliban-grade bollocks.
posted by acb at 4:50 PM on June 10, 2017 [12 favorites]
If this doesn't hole any deal with them below the waterline, I don't know what will. The British people can (grumblingly) put up with a lot, but not this Taliban-grade bollocks.
posted by acb at 4:50 PM on June 10, 2017 [12 favorites]
Keep in mind also the Tories are trying to avoid a second election in any possible way they can because chances are they're going to get absolutely thumped going into it with the leadership in tatters. Voters in Westminster systems tend not to go with parties that don't have their own shit in order. They also tend to not like parties dragging them back out to the polls through intransigence or incompetence.
posted by Talez at 4:50 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Talez at 4:50 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
I can't imagine that Sinn Fein would (or could, really) abandon abstentionism, but who this seems like a bit of an all-bets-are-off election, so who knows.
Taking seats in Westminster would require taking the Oath of Allegiance:
posted by Talez at 4:54 PM on June 10, 2017 [24 favorites]
Taking seats in Westminster would require taking the Oath of Allegiance:
I, (name), do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.If an Irish Republican ever mutters those words I will eat my left shoe.
posted by Talez at 4:54 PM on June 10, 2017 [24 favorites]
Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.
Considering the apparent implications for the Good Friday Agreement, mentioned above, I think we can all agree this is great news.
posted by tobascodagama at 4:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
Considering the apparent implications for the Good Friday Agreement, mentioned above, I think we can all agree this is great news.
posted by tobascodagama at 4:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
I will eat my left shoe.
Live on Sky News?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:59 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Live on Sky News?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:59 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Putin is having a meeting with his head of dirty tricks.
"So, I don't understand exactly what you did here. I mean, don't get me wrong, it worked beautifully. But what was it, exactly?"
"Nothing."
"Nothing? At all?"
"We just left them to it."
"The British did this to themselves?"
"Yup."
Putin's jaw drops open, awestruck.
posted by Grangousier at 5:03 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
"So, I don't understand exactly what you did here. I mean, don't get me wrong, it worked beautifully. But what was it, exactly?"
"Nothing."
"Nothing? At all?"
"We just left them to it."
"The British did this to themselves?"
"Yup."
Putin's jaw drops open, awestruck.
posted by Grangousier at 5:03 PM on June 10, 2017 [11 favorites]
Well, Farange is in bed with that crowd so it's not like they have absolutely nothing to do with it, even if the British public has become remarkably adept in shooting itself in the face of late.
posted by Artw at 5:07 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:07 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
Live on Sky News?
Sure. Why not. There's an equally good chance I land up on Sky News for some reason.
posted by Talez at 5:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sure. Why not. There's an equally good chance I land up on Sky News for some reason.
posted by Talez at 5:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...
@FrankSunTimes: ST News: DUP has list of 45 demands that form a "starting point" for party's discussions with May
posted by Artw at 5:09 PM on June 10, 2017 [12 favorites]
@FrankSunTimes: ST News: DUP has list of 45 demands that form a "starting point" for party's discussions with May
posted by Artw at 5:09 PM on June 10, 2017 [12 favorites]
Sure. Why not. There's an equally good chance I land up on Sky News for some reason.
Promise you'll eat the entire shoe while on camera, and no silly excuses about chemicals.
posted by effbot at 5:17 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Promise you'll eat the entire shoe while on camera, and no silly excuses about chemicals.
posted by effbot at 5:17 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Promise you'll eat the entire shoe while on camera, and no silly excuses about chemicals.
Sure. I'll even promise I won't make the shoe out of cake.
posted by Talez at 5:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sure. I'll even promise I won't make the shoe out of cake.
posted by Talez at 5:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Sky report on DUP's not fully committing really does make the Theresa May government seem like something right out of Season 4 "The Thick of It"
posted by My Dad at 5:24 PM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by My Dad at 5:24 PM on June 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
I think that the rapid backpedal on the DUP agreement just before the Sabbath starts is diagnostic of Downing Street taking a punt that they were aaaaalmost there at 6pm and deciding to catch the Sunday papers, and the DUP gleefully taking the chance to get all difficult. Because the DUP don't work on the Sabbath, so that leaves the Tories taking all the flack for a full day.
It's also rather fun that May went to the Palace and said 'I can form a government' before she actually could. Each day closer to the Queen's Speech without an agreement locked down puts more pressure on her... which is, sadly, typical of her really poor negotiation skills. In 2010, Brown took days in talks with the Lib Dems before conceding, and it was only when Cameron and Clegg had actually shaken hands that Call Me Dave took the governmental Uber to see Brenda.
Hour by hour, May is further disqualifying herself from office.
posted by Devonian at 5:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
It's also rather fun that May went to the Palace and said 'I can form a government' before she actually could. Each day closer to the Queen's Speech without an agreement locked down puts more pressure on her... which is, sadly, typical of her really poor negotiation skills. In 2010, Brown took days in talks with the Lib Dems before conceding, and it was only when Cameron and Clegg had actually shaken hands that Call Me Dave took the governmental Uber to see Brenda.
Hour by hour, May is further disqualifying herself from office.
posted by Devonian at 5:33 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
i can't believe the British government chose to back these loyalist maniacs for all those decades when they're such insufferable pious sharts even to their own ostensible allies. this must be why NI never seems to come up even in domestic media.
posted by indubitable at 5:36 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by indubitable at 5:36 PM on June 10, 2017
My sides actually hurt.
posted by vbfg at 5:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by vbfg at 5:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
that leaves the Tories taking all the flack for a full day.
At least two full days, since they'll only just get started talking again on Monday. I wonder how much more chaotic things are going to get, or if May even lasts . Harry Cole at the Sun, who spent 100% of his time rubbishing Jeremy Corbyn until Friday, just tweeted this.
posted by My Dad at 5:38 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
At least two full days, since they'll only just get started talking again on Monday. I wonder how much more chaotic things are going to get, or if May even lasts . Harry Cole at the Sun, who spent 100% of his time rubbishing Jeremy Corbyn until Friday, just tweeted this.
posted by My Dad at 5:38 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
This is a good rant from a Tory MP critiquing May's performance on Sky News.
posted by biffa at 5:38 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by biffa at 5:38 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
May is almost certainly out, whatever happens, and whoever gets government is going to be hamstrung by the weakness of their majority. I really think it would be tactically better for the Tories if they ostentatiously fail to reach agreement with the DUP and they let the other parties engage in a few rounds of public squabbling before a new election is called.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:40 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:40 PM on June 10, 2017
I don't think the other parties would take the bait, though. There's no way they can make a government, so they'd skip the squabbling and go straight to new elections.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:43 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:43 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Maybe the true conservative party masterplan is to keep having new elections till all the other parties run out of money and can't afford to pay the deposits to contest any seats.
posted by dng at 5:46 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by dng at 5:46 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
I don't think the other parties would take the bait, though. There's no way they can make a government, so they'd skip the squabbling and go straight to new elections.
The Lib Dems kind of learnt this when they realized they couldn't really stop Tory cruelty without dragging the public back to the polls. Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.
posted by Talez at 5:48 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Lib Dems kind of learnt this when they realized they couldn't really stop Tory cruelty without dragging the public back to the polls. Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.
posted by Talez at 5:48 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
@NyeBeverage The person who claims to be the best person to negotiate with the EU is currently being played by people who don't believe in fossils.
posted by Artw at 5:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [26 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [26 favorites]
Kinda crazy that Theresa May is negotiating with this person.
posted by My Dad at 5:56 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by My Dad at 5:56 PM on June 10, 2017
Also, Labour would LOVE another election right now.
If May can't pull off a confidence and supply deal (that doesn't split her party) very soon, that's what they'll get. (Narrator: she couldn't).
posted by Devonian at 5:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
If May can't pull off a confidence and supply deal (that doesn't split her party) very soon, that's what they'll get. (Narrator: she couldn't).
posted by Devonian at 5:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
So many marginals.... so many....
posted by Artw at 5:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:58 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Capital, Crisis, and Corbyn
There is now what is called a “hung parliament,” with no overall majority for one party. This makes the upcoming Brexit talks with the EU a mess, as there is no “strong and stable” government to negotiate.posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:21 PM on June 10, 2017 [6 favorites]
But more than a disaster for May and the Conservatives, this is one for the British ruling class. The negotiations over the terms of Britain leaving the EU are supposed to start on June 19, and now the EU negotiators will face British ones having lost their majority in the British Parliament. The terms of any deal are going to be hard on the interests of British capital: on the terms of trade, employment mobility, and on capital flows for the City of London.
At the same time, the UK economy is already struggling. In the first quarter of 2017, the UK’s real GDP grew more slowly than any other top (G7) economy. The British pound dropped sharply after the election result, and it is likely to fall further as foreign investors consider their options, given the uncertainty of what will happen with Brexit and the paralyzed position of a minority Conservative government unable to carry out any economic policy measures. Sterling has already fallen by over 15% since the Brexit referendum result last year.
Democracy, eh? Bloody 'ell! ;-)
All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!
You can't possibly consider that utter madman The Quidnunc Kid to lead you in these times of trouble! We need a proper plurality here!
I am placing myself as the leader of NotAssholesThatLoveTheBlue Party and offering my services during this crisis.
posted by Samizdata at 6:29 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!
You can't possibly consider that utter madman The Quidnunc Kid to lead you in these times of trouble! We need a proper plurality here!
I am placing myself as the leader of NotAssholesThatLoveTheBlue Party and offering my services during this crisis.
posted by Samizdata at 6:29 PM on June 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Lord Sugar: Corbyn voters 'not experienced in life' and 'didn't know what they voted for'
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:45 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Alan Sugar is a knob and his views have no relevance on anything.
posted by adamvasco at 6:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [23 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 6:51 PM on June 10, 2017 [23 favorites]
Alan Sugar, previously UK host of "The Apprentice".
posted by Artw at 6:52 PM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:52 PM on June 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
Don't worry about the mess, folks, Winston Churchill is on it.
Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.
I suspect you can find quite a few Labour folks who'd love to do that, and as soon as possible to leverage the current narrative of May as the biggest loser in modern history ("as useful as a zombie on a broken bike", to quote an article that just popped up in my feeds).
Seems Corbyn is hoping that enough Tory backbenchers will block May's Queen's Speech but not his alternative, but that doesn't feel likely, so there you have your reelection. Which could go in any direction tbh, there are many ways to interpret Thursday's results, and as Verhofstadt put it the other day, "I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention", so not going to rule out any scenario at this point...
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.
I suspect you can find quite a few Labour folks who'd love to do that, and as soon as possible to leverage the current narrative of May as the biggest loser in modern history ("as useful as a zombie on a broken bike", to quote an article that just popped up in my feeds).
Seems Corbyn is hoping that enough Tory backbenchers will block May's Queen's Speech but not his alternative, but that doesn't feel likely, so there you have your reelection. Which could go in any direction tbh, there are many ways to interpret Thursday's results, and as Verhofstadt put it the other day, "I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention", so not going to rule out any scenario at this point...
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Alan Sugar should have experienced running a football club before everyone noticed he didn't know what he was getting in to.
posted by lmfsilva at 7:16 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by lmfsilva at 7:16 PM on June 10, 2017
It's safe to say - Apprentice anchors really shouldn't get into politics
posted by Devonian at 7:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 7:19 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
Didn't Katie Hopkins rise like a poisonous miasma from The Apprentice, too?
posted by Grangousier at 7:21 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 7:21 PM on June 10, 2017 [8 favorites]
The Financial Times had an interesting set of charts on the 2017 general election the other day. It inspired me to write something. I thought I was going to write something clever about them, or about the general election. Instead I found myself writing 6,340 words about New Labour through the 1997 general election, and its all thanks to this chart.
Something happened here. Something important happened in this election and the past few elections, that’s true, but that chart also tells us that something important happened about twenty-five years ago, when Labour began its long march towards the center. That something was New Labour.posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:37 PM on June 10, 2017 [5 favorites]
So much has happened between Blair and now that it’s possible to forget the social transformation of the Labour Party under Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. If you’ll bear with me, I’ll take you through the breaking and remaking of the Labour Party, its transformation from a party of “the inner cities, the North, the Clyde, the mining industry, the heavy engineering industry, the public sector, [and] the trade unions,” a party that couldn’t win more than a handful of seats south of the line between the Wash and the Bristol Channel, into the sort of party that can win in Kensington, even under a leader like Jeremy Corbyn.
Both the Mail and Sunday Times is fronting with Boris for PM, based on information from inside sources who's probably named Boris too, although Boris says it's tripe. Getting a new PM in place before the Queen's Speech and Brexit negotiations scheduled for a week from now might be a bit tough...
In other Twitter news, I see hardcore Corbyn zealots have descended on unpure Labour MPs now again, demanding purges, intelligence tests, etc. Seems the voters didn't follow instructions.
Also, #WorstPrimeMinisterInHistory is trending.
posted by effbot at 8:01 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
In other Twitter news, I see hardcore Corbyn zealots have descended on unpure Labour MPs now again, demanding purges, intelligence tests, etc. Seems the voters didn't follow instructions.
Also, #WorstPrimeMinisterInHistory is trending.
posted by effbot at 8:01 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Didn't Katie Hopkins rise like a poisonous miasma from The Apprentice, too?
I would only quibble with the word rise.
posted by jaduncan at 8:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
I would only quibble with the word rise.
posted by jaduncan at 8:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Oh, random fun fact: if nobody can form a government within two weeks, the Fixed Term Parlament Act means another election must be called.
Ironically, this is like a little preview of how May negotiates when there is a cut-off date acting as a gun to her head.
posted by jaduncan at 8:14 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
Ironically, this is like a little preview of how May negotiates when there is a cut-off date acting as a gun to her head.
posted by jaduncan at 8:14 PM on June 10, 2017 [27 favorites]
I suspect you can find quite a few Labour folks who'd love to do that, and as soon as possible to leverage the current narrative of May as the biggest loser in modern history ("as useful as a zombie on a broken bike", to quote an article that just popped up in my feeds).
They'd love to do that but they sure as hell don't want to be blamed for it.
posted by Talez at 8:25 PM on June 10, 2017
They'd love to do that but they sure as hell don't want to be blamed for it.
posted by Talez at 8:25 PM on June 10, 2017
Odd, so far the Mail website seems to barely mention the Survation poll they commissioned with Labour on 45%, Conservatives on 39%; and 49% to 38% saying Theresa May should resign. (This will presumably be reweighted with the election result data so can't be directly compared with any previous one.)
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:39 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Mr. Sugar's Amstrad company was previously responsible for such misbegotten monstrosities as this.
posted by Artw at 8:43 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:43 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Reading and Railroads:
Willow Colios notes that May was “incredibly naive” in the timing of the election, which came after exams but before students had gone home for the holidays.
"These results prove that the toxic Southern rail franchise was a game changer in key seats along the routes served," said Mick Cash, RMT’s general secretary.
posted by clawsoon at 8:46 PM on June 10, 2017
Willow Colios notes that May was “incredibly naive” in the timing of the election, which came after exams but before students had gone home for the holidays.
"These results prove that the toxic Southern rail franchise was a game changer in key seats along the routes served," said Mick Cash, RMT’s general secretary.
posted by clawsoon at 8:46 PM on June 10, 2017
Is there any reason to think this result is likely to prevent Brexit?
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:47 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:47 PM on June 10, 2017
I think it's likely that a "hard Brexit" (whatever insane idea that is) is going to be averted. The dumb thing is, any "better deal" than hard Brexit is still going to put the UK in a weaker position than it ever was.
Or Boris Johnson could just do a U-turn and withdraw Article 50 (which may or may not be legally possible; the person who drafted Article 50 seems to think so).
posted by My Dad at 8:54 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Or Boris Johnson could just do a U-turn and withdraw Article 50 (which may or may not be legally possible; the person who drafted Article 50 seems to think so).
posted by My Dad at 8:54 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is there any reason to think this result is likely to prevent Brexit?
Hard Brexit, quite possibly. Assuming the FTPA doesn't kick in, there isn't a majority in the house for hard Brexit. The EFTA option looks possible.
posted by jaduncan at 8:56 PM on June 10, 2017
Hard Brexit, quite possibly. Assuming the FTPA doesn't kick in, there isn't a majority in the house for hard Brexit. The EFTA option looks possible.
posted by jaduncan at 8:56 PM on June 10, 2017
I realize that electorates aren't rationale, but unless I'm counting wrong, I don't see how Labour could form a government. Even if they get the Liberal Dems, SNP, and the one Green and independent on board, it's not enough, right? So I don't see how they could be blamed for new elections. They certainly can't go into a coalition with the Tories or DUP.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:58 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:58 PM on June 10, 2017
Or Boris Johnson could just do a U-turn and withdraw Article 50
I cannot even imagine the sheer amount of internecine warfare that would erupt if Johnson did that. He, more than anyone else, is associated with the Leave campaign. Out of sheer pride (and a desire to be Tory leader more than 5 minutes) he is very unlikely to do more than find a Brexit primarily in name.
posted by jaduncan at 8:59 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
I cannot even imagine the sheer amount of internecine warfare that would erupt if Johnson did that. He, more than anyone else, is associated with the Leave campaign. Out of sheer pride (and a desire to be Tory leader more than 5 minutes) he is very unlikely to do more than find a Brexit primarily in name.
posted by jaduncan at 8:59 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Maybe they could just withdraw from Gibraltar and call it a compromise?
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:02 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:02 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is there any evidence that the EU actually gives a shit about Hard or Soft Brexit and won't just offer the same diminished status no matter what?
posted by Artw at 9:02 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:02 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is there any evidence that the EU actually gives a shit about Hard or Soft Brexit and won't just offer the same diminished status no matter what?
Yeah, the EU would greatly prefer the UK to be in the single market. There are supply chains and existing sales to think of. IMHO the reason the EFTA option is quite possible is that the UK get to say they left the EU, UK manufacturing and (crucially) financial and legal services get to be in the single market, the EU don't have to put up with British MEPs, and can still buy and sell goods and services with a major economy. Everyone is genuinely a winner.
Now, you might think that sounds like the UK getting a less good deal in that it's essentially EU membership without any vote and without the rebate.
Well, yes. Pretty pointless, eh?
posted by jaduncan at 9:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [20 favorites]
Yeah, the EU would greatly prefer the UK to be in the single market. There are supply chains and existing sales to think of. IMHO the reason the EFTA option is quite possible is that the UK get to say they left the EU, UK manufacturing and (crucially) financial and legal services get to be in the single market, the EU don't have to put up with British MEPs, and can still buy and sell goods and services with a major economy. Everyone is genuinely a winner.
Now, you might think that sounds like the UK getting a less good deal in that it's essentially EU membership without any vote and without the rebate.
Well, yes. Pretty pointless, eh?
posted by jaduncan at 9:08 PM on June 10, 2017 [20 favorites]
Depends on what you think of British decision making, I guess.
posted by Artw at 9:14 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by Artw at 9:14 PM on June 10, 2017
Absent that, it means that we will be outside of the single market, and will have forced many of London's financial and legal firms to leave for sunnier climes and/or Ireland. We'd be free to negotiate trade deals with other nations, but would take a massive economic hit. Depending on how much we don't form a deal, we might be trading on WTO terms, meaning that we'd also have forced many manufacturing firms to move out of the country.
TBH, I can't see many Tories entirely enthusiastically signing up for a situation where they are currently in considerable danger but get to go to the country next time having successfully cast the economy into massive recession.
So, yeah. What saves face? EFTA.
posted by jaduncan at 9:14 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
TBH, I can't see many Tories entirely enthusiastically signing up for a situation where they are currently in considerable danger but get to go to the country next time having successfully cast the economy into massive recession.
So, yeah. What saves face? EFTA.
posted by jaduncan at 9:14 PM on June 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
(or something even softer)
posted by jaduncan at 9:16 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by jaduncan at 9:16 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Well, yes. Pretty pointless, eh?
Well, Brussels get rid of Farage. That's worth a few points. You probably won't, though, he'll still pop up on BBC a few times per week.
posted by effbot at 9:24 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Well, Brussels get rid of Farage. That's worth a few points. You probably won't, though, he'll still pop up on BBC a few times per week.
posted by effbot at 9:24 PM on June 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
And how long until the chattering classes start moaning about having to comply to EU standards but having no say in setting them?
posted by PenDevil at 10:44 PM on June 10, 2017
posted by PenDevil at 10:44 PM on June 10, 2017
Theresa May negotiating with the DUP.
(joke stolen from I-can’t-remember-who on Twitter)
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:32 AM on June 11, 2017 [16 favorites]
(joke stolen from I-can’t-remember-who on Twitter)
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:32 AM on June 11, 2017 [16 favorites]
I've been rewatching the Robbie Coltrane's old Mason Boyne sketches for some reason.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:41 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:41 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Been away for a bit organising local Labour voters and pushing for massive change in the UK. How are things :D
posted by longbaugh at 1:08 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by longbaugh at 1:08 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
How are things :D
Two more weeks and Labour would have been in power, says McDonnell
Former Blair aide says Labour lost an ‘easily winnable’ fight
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:27 AM on June 11, 2017
Two more weeks and Labour would have been in power, says McDonnell
Former Blair aide says Labour lost an ‘easily winnable’ fight
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:27 AM on June 11, 2017
So the Labour right are now saying that the election was "easily winnable"?
Before Corbyn became leader, the Labour right were glumly talking about a "mountain to climb" in the next election. Afterwards they warned grimly that Labour is party without a country and "without establishing the role of Labour in modern Britain, the party is unlikely ever to govern again", and that "Labour cannot possibly win, nor even come close to winning, the next election unless it somehow gets shot of Corbyn in pretty short order".
They weren't saying it was so easy when they thought one of their guys would have the job.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:13 AM on June 11, 2017 [19 favorites]
Before Corbyn became leader, the Labour right were glumly talking about a "mountain to climb" in the next election. Afterwards they warned grimly that Labour is party without a country and "without establishing the role of Labour in modern Britain, the party is unlikely ever to govern again", and that "Labour cannot possibly win, nor even come close to winning, the next election unless it somehow gets shot of Corbyn in pretty short order".
They weren't saying it was so easy when they thought one of their guys would have the job.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:13 AM on June 11, 2017 [19 favorites]
Former Blair aide says Labour lost an ‘easily winnable’ fight
That argument has been made on both sides, from people who'd like their parties to be a bit less extreme. A more interesting hypothetical is perhaps how things would have looked if Corbyn had shown the same energy during the Remain campaign as he did during theCorbyn GE campaign :-)
Talking of which, he apparently just stated that the Great Repeal Bill is dead. Not entirely sure how you'd sort out Brexit without something like that, though.
posted by effbot at 3:16 AM on June 11, 2017
That argument has been made on both sides, from people who'd like their parties to be a bit less extreme. A more interesting hypothetical is perhaps how things would have looked if Corbyn had shown the same energy during the Remain campaign as he did during the
Talking of which, he apparently just stated that the Great Repeal Bill is dead. Not entirely sure how you'd sort out Brexit without something like that, though.
posted by effbot at 3:16 AM on June 11, 2017
And how long until the chattering classes start moaning about having to comply to EU standards but having no say in setting them?
Is this your official starting point for the Brentry campaign?
posted by jaduncan at 3:19 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Is this your official starting point for the Brentry campaign?
posted by jaduncan at 3:19 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
They weren't saying it was so easy when they thought one of their guys would have the job.
To be fair, the argument (on both sides) is that the other side was weaker than expected. Nobody expected the May collapse, for example, and relying on your opposition to consistently screw up both leaders and their manifestos don't work in the long run.
posted by effbot at 3:21 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
To be fair, the argument (on both sides) is that the other side was weaker than expected. Nobody expected the May collapse, for example, and relying on your opposition to consistently screw up both leaders and their manifestos don't work in the long run.
posted by effbot at 3:21 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
Thought you were linking to that failed high five that's been making the rounds.
posted by effbot at 3:26 AM on June 11, 2017
Thought you were linking to that failed high five that's been making the rounds.
posted by effbot at 3:26 AM on June 11, 2017
Brentry campaign
Brepentance and Breabsorption.
posted by busted_crayons at 3:45 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Brepentance and Breabsorption.
posted by busted_crayons at 3:45 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
I'm not seeing any of the mocking of Jeremy Corbyn that you feel is still prevalent, effbot. The only times I saw the high five posted, people were laughing with him, not at him. He'll do good things for the UK and its allies over the next year or so, and it's unpleasant to see him ridiculed.
posted by ambrosen at 3:48 AM on June 11, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 3:48 AM on June 11, 2017 [7 favorites]
Jess Phillips: We all of us need to eat a slice of that humble pie.
posted by Catseye at 3:52 AM on June 11, 2017
posted by Catseye at 3:52 AM on June 11, 2017
Alan Sugar, previously UK host of "The Apprentice".
Also floated as a potential Labour candidate for Mayor of London a few years ago, when Blairism was still viable and toe ability to Tory as well as the Tories was considered important. How things change...
posted by acb at 4:30 AM on June 11, 2017
Also floated as a potential Labour candidate for Mayor of London a few years ago, when Blairism was still viable and toe ability to Tory as well as the Tories was considered important. How things change...
posted by acb at 4:30 AM on June 11, 2017
Well, Brussels get rid of Farage. That's worth a few points. You probably won't, though, he'll still pop up on BBC a few times per week.
Truly the unflushable turd in the toilet bowl of politics.
posted by acb at 4:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [7 favorites]
Truly the unflushable turd in the toilet bowl of politics.
posted by acb at 4:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [7 favorites]
Brentry campaign
We might have to wait a few decades, until we've had a jolly old war against one or more of the filthy vino-drinking continentals. Sometime after the first generation that grew up ineligible for Erasmus scholarships or visa-free living on the continent has been sent off to do their duty in the trenches. (After all, how can young Tommy Atkins be relied upon to run Jacques and Fritz through with his bayonet when the three of them spent the previous summer necking pills in Ibiza together?)
So, perhaps 2050 or so.
posted by acb at 4:36 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
We might have to wait a few decades, until we've had a jolly old war against one or more of the filthy vino-drinking continentals. Sometime after the first generation that grew up ineligible for Erasmus scholarships or visa-free living on the continent has been sent off to do their duty in the trenches. (After all, how can young Tommy Atkins be relied upon to run Jacques and Fritz through with his bayonet when the three of them spent the previous summer necking pills in Ibiza together?)
So, perhaps 2050 or so.
posted by acb at 4:36 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile, in surrealist news: "The Observer has learned that May took the fateful decision to call the election having been urged to do so by commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. It is understood that Juncker had advised May to call an early general election as a result of his concerns that the 17-seat majority she had inherited from David Cameron would not be enough during the pinch points of the negotiations [...]"
(Totally agree with Yvette Cooper in that article, btw.)
Also, big fan of Jess Phillips.
posted by effbot at 4:37 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
(Totally agree with Yvette Cooper in that article, btw.)
Also, big fan of Jess Phillips.
posted by effbot at 4:37 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Corbyn needs to dial back a bit on the "I can still be PM, this is still on" stuff. It smells of the same hubris that made May call the election, and people in this country tend not to like it when someone goes against the result of a democratic vote. Labour's performance astonished me - it was fantastic. But they still lost the election, and coming out with the "this is still on" rhetoric will make Corbyn look silly when the Conservative Queen's Speech goes through. It's vanishingly unlikely that enough Conservatives will vote for the Labour amendments to the Queen's Speech knowing what will happen.
If Trump is Pepe the Frog, Corbyn is Dat Boi, cheerfully unicycling on regardless of what is thrown at him.
“Here come dat absolute boi”
posted by acb at 4:40 AM on June 11, 2017 [10 favorites]
If Trump is Pepe the Frog, Corbyn is Dat Boi, cheerfully unicycling on regardless of what is thrown at him.
“Here come dat absolute boi”
posted by acb at 4:40 AM on June 11, 2017 [10 favorites]
If Theresa May was stupid enough to take political advice on Europe from someone called Jean-Claude Juncker she deserves all the opprobrium being heaped on her. The name positively screams "I AM A MENACING CONTINENTAL". Has she never heard of nominative determinism? No wonder her Foreign Minister is named Boris.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:03 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:03 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
No wonder her Foreign Minister is named Boris.
Erh, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:11 AM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
Erh, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:11 AM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
Love that boy.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:14 AM on June 11, 2017
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:14 AM on June 11, 2017
The fantasyland "I can still be PM" stuff is going to turn off a few people
Which people, though? I get the impression that the optics of the 'bide my time' and 'never say die' attitudes play rather differently to young first-time-voters.
If we end up with another election imminent, Corbyn will need to maintain high turnout from young supporters, a demographic that tends to stay home for any election that feels like business as usual. You need blood in the water and a candidate that they think will take the fight all the way.
posted by the latin mouse at 5:19 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
Which people, though? I get the impression that the optics of the 'bide my time' and 'never say die' attitudes play rather differently to young first-time-voters.
If we end up with another election imminent, Corbyn will need to maintain high turnout from young supporters, a demographic that tends to stay home for any election that feels like business as usual. You need blood in the water and a candidate that they think will take the fight all the way.
posted by the latin mouse at 5:19 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
My feeling about the sentiment is that it has turned massively against the Conservatives, because of how clear they've made it that they simply can't run a country. I think any election in the next 6 months will have that positive feedback of "we made a difference, now let's finish the job" that will keep engagement rates as high as they were on Thursday.
So I'm bullish for Corbyn. In part because he convinced me over the past 3 weeks or so.
posted by ambrosen at 5:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [11 favorites]
So I'm bullish for Corbyn. In part because he convinced me over the past 3 weeks or so.
posted by ambrosen at 5:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [11 favorites]
I want to be hugely behind Corbyn and another election sooner not later, but right now Labour are still planning on a hard Brexit. Given what an unmitigated disaster that's going to be, switching to a Labour government feels like changing the captain of the Titanic for someone who's got much better ideas about pretty much everything re: managing a ship, but is still steering it straight for the iceberg.
So if the alternative to that is Tories wobbling their way through another few months by giving up on hard Brexit - as the DUP will want and as a lot of Tory Remainer MPs are suddenly getting a lot louder about - and getting that up and running when the negotiations start, and then collapsing in disarray over their utter incompetence, and then Labour winning another election before the end of the year and not ditching it - then I'd be happy with that. But who even knows any more? We could be looking at a Lord Buckethead/New Whig/LibDem coalition by this time next week.
posted by Catseye at 5:44 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
So if the alternative to that is Tories wobbling their way through another few months by giving up on hard Brexit - as the DUP will want and as a lot of Tory Remainer MPs are suddenly getting a lot louder about - and getting that up and running when the negotiations start, and then collapsing in disarray over their utter incompetence, and then Labour winning another election before the end of the year and not ditching it - then I'd be happy with that. But who even knows any more? We could be looking at a Lord Buckethead/New Whig/LibDem coalition by this time next week.
posted by Catseye at 5:44 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
Donald Trump's state visit to Britain put on hold
I think he knows his hand holder won't be there to meet him off the plane now.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
I think he knows his hand holder won't be there to meet him off the plane now.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
God, so much going on. Trump's UK visit on hold, DUP making Farage part of the Brexit process a condition of support, McDonnell banging on about a hard Brexit being democratically mandated, 1922 Committee calling May to the headmaster's office a day earlier than planned...
Week. Politics. Long time.
posted by Devonian at 5:51 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
Week. Politics. Long time.
posted by Devonian at 5:51 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
I think he knows his hand holder won't be there to meet him off the plane now.
Also from the story it looks like he made this call a while ago. This is someone leaking whatever they can to undermine May. Not that she needs much in the way of undermining. I've seen spinning tops more stable than her.
posted by Happy Dave at 5:51 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Also from the story it looks like he made this call a while ago. This is someone leaking whatever they can to undermine May. Not that she needs much in the way of undermining. I've seen spinning tops more stable than her.
posted by Happy Dave at 5:51 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
DUP making Farage part of the Brexit process a condition of support
What?
posted by acb at 5:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
What?
posted by acb at 5:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Jesus, he's never going to fuck off.
posted by Artw at 6:02 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:02 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
Lots of press this morning from Labour claiming that they can lead and that Theresa May cannot run a minority government.
It's fighting talk but they seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that they have even less seats than the Tories, they'd need to enter into a coalition with almost every other party just to beat the Tories 318 seats and they still would need the DUP (shudder) if they wanted to get more than 326 seats for a majority.
posted by mr_silver at 6:20 AM on June 11, 2017
It's fighting talk but they seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that they have even less seats than the Tories, they'd need to enter into a coalition with almost every other party just to beat the Tories 318 seats and they still would need the DUP (shudder) if they wanted to get more than 326 seats for a majority.
posted by mr_silver at 6:20 AM on June 11, 2017
In my constituency (Southport) potential Labour voters were bombarded with messages from the Lib Dems (through the letterbox every single day in the weeks before the election, on social media constantly) saying "Labour can't win here, vote Lib Dem to stop the Tories". I didn't fall for it - I almost did but changed my mind 2 days before the election and voted Labour but I know a lot of people who voted "tactically" here for the Lib Dems. When the results came through it ended up with a Tory win, Labour second and Lib Dems third. Now those that voted tactically feel cheated out of their votes by the Lib Dems. I'm convinced if there were another election here tomorrow Labour would win even though they ended up trailing the Tories by about 3,000 votes.
We're now the laughing stock of Merseyside - a sad dot of blue in a sea of red. I wonder how many other constituencies fell for something like this?
posted by hazyjane at 6:23 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
We're now the laughing stock of Merseyside - a sad dot of blue in a sea of red. I wonder how many other constituencies fell for something like this?
posted by hazyjane at 6:23 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
Lord Farage of Question Time
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:30 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:30 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
I wonder the same about all those Scottish seats.
posted by Artw at 6:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
hazyjane, Lib Dems did that where I am - ran a nasty negative campaign based around tactical voting and we still ended up with the Tory (as predicted - this wasn't a marginal by any stretch of the imagination). Combined Labour and Green vote outstriped the Lib Dems even though they came in second. If (when) it happens again, the Tory will probably still retain his seat but Lib Dem will probably get flattened in the polls. And if those same Lib Dems who proclaimed they were all about a progressive alliance had gone and campaigned in the marginals next door... well, they might well have turned Red. (Edited for typo.)
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 6:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 6:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
I wonder the same about all those Scottish seats.
Scotland was all anti-SNP tactical voting. It was organised from the top with paper candidates in some constituencies. Though I think a lot less Labour supporters will be lending their votes to the Tories next time given what's happening now (and probably vice-versa too)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Scotland was all anti-SNP tactical voting. It was organised from the top with paper candidates in some constituencies. Though I think a lot less Labour supporters will be lending their votes to the Tories next time given what's happening now (and probably vice-versa too)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
From Robert Harris, a reminder of who got you all into this mess: How appropriate it was that David Cameron’s main contribution to this election campaign was to post on social media a picture of his toes. When future historians puzzle over Britain, 2015-17, it will be a useful exhibit.
posted by effbot at 6:38 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by effbot at 6:38 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
I'm still a bit skeptical of the second coming of Corbyn because the Tory campaign was so bad and the Brexit process is really turning out to be a shit show. Also I need to keep reminding myself that Corbyn and his far left supporters want Brexit, they are not fans of the EU.
posted by PenDevil at 6:39 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by PenDevil at 6:39 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
The SNP ran a very poor campaign this time, and the troops are demoralised, so an early return to the ballot box may not do them many favours.
On the other hand, that peculiar DUP <3 Lord Unflushable business may winkle out some interesting angles on all that dark money that's floating around the DUP and the Scots Tories. Say what you like about the DUP, but they are vastly venal and pretty damn incompetent at hiding it.
posted by Devonian at 6:42 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
On the other hand, that peculiar DUP <3 Lord Unflushable business may winkle out some interesting angles on all that dark money that's floating around the DUP and the Scots Tories. Say what you like about the DUP, but they are vastly venal and pretty damn incompetent at hiding it.
posted by Devonian at 6:42 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
On the SDLP, I feel that their biggest problem has been the attempt to reclaim a leadership position within nationalism in Northern Ireland. As A&C said upthread, the further we get away from Sinn Fein's complicity in violence, the harder that is to achieve. You can't out-green Sinn Fein, they will always be able to outflank you on the national question and if that's what a voter's number one concern is, then why would they vote for some milder version of the same?
My argument, which I put to the leadership when I worked there, was that the SDLP need to scale back their public commitment to a united Ireland and scale up their advocacy for a strong social democratic society. They also need to revisit their position on abortion - which, like most Northern Irish parties, they strongly oppose - and reach out to young voters and moderate/centre-left unionists. The abject failure of the old guard of the SDLP might allow this realignment, as judging from my time there, the younger members and politicians are much more socially liberal than their predecessors. The SDLP youth wing attempted to get a conference debate on SDLP abortion policy in 2010, they failed after triggering a huge row with the older, more conservative leadership.
The constitutional question of Northern Ireland's future was settled by the Good Friday Agreement, so my view is that the parties should focus on normal domestic policy over all else. Retain a united Ireland as a long term aspiration if you want, but every time you stress how much you want one, you alienate moderate unionists who might otherwise have considered you.
I've always been broadly in favour of a united Ireland, as part of a strong European Union, but I wouldn't want a united Ireland of low corporation taxes, minimal welfare state and libertarian government. I suspect that the NHS alone adds quite a few percentage points to support for continued union with Britain among those who would otherwise be pro-united Ireland.
There's a huge problem with all this though, in that the "ugly scaffolding" of the Good Friday Agreement locks in sectarian politics by requiring designation as 'nationalist' or 'unionist' and actively prevents normal politics emerging. This was probably necessary for the peace agreement, to help deal with the legacy of an actively sectarian state, but it's also part of the reason we are where we are today. I don't have an answer about how to move beyond it.
Literally the day after I spoke to Margaret Ritchie, then SDLP leader, about why I felt they needed to beef up their social democrat stance and tone down the Irish nationalism, she gave a speech saying the SDLP's number one priority was a united Ireland. How on earth do you reach out beyond the nationalist community with that stance?
(As an aside, everyone should listen to Mark Durkan's speech (transcript)in the aftermath of the publication of the Saville report on Bloody Sunday and the first British apology for the soldiers' actions that day and think about what we will now be missing from Westminster)
posted by knapah at 6:54 AM on June 11, 2017 [19 favorites]
My argument, which I put to the leadership when I worked there, was that the SDLP need to scale back their public commitment to a united Ireland and scale up their advocacy for a strong social democratic society. They also need to revisit their position on abortion - which, like most Northern Irish parties, they strongly oppose - and reach out to young voters and moderate/centre-left unionists. The abject failure of the old guard of the SDLP might allow this realignment, as judging from my time there, the younger members and politicians are much more socially liberal than their predecessors. The SDLP youth wing attempted to get a conference debate on SDLP abortion policy in 2010, they failed after triggering a huge row with the older, more conservative leadership.
The constitutional question of Northern Ireland's future was settled by the Good Friday Agreement, so my view is that the parties should focus on normal domestic policy over all else. Retain a united Ireland as a long term aspiration if you want, but every time you stress how much you want one, you alienate moderate unionists who might otherwise have considered you.
I've always been broadly in favour of a united Ireland, as part of a strong European Union, but I wouldn't want a united Ireland of low corporation taxes, minimal welfare state and libertarian government. I suspect that the NHS alone adds quite a few percentage points to support for continued union with Britain among those who would otherwise be pro-united Ireland.
There's a huge problem with all this though, in that the "ugly scaffolding" of the Good Friday Agreement locks in sectarian politics by requiring designation as 'nationalist' or 'unionist' and actively prevents normal politics emerging. This was probably necessary for the peace agreement, to help deal with the legacy of an actively sectarian state, but it's also part of the reason we are where we are today. I don't have an answer about how to move beyond it.
Literally the day after I spoke to Margaret Ritchie, then SDLP leader, about why I felt they needed to beef up their social democrat stance and tone down the Irish nationalism, she gave a speech saying the SDLP's number one priority was a united Ireland. How on earth do you reach out beyond the nationalist community with that stance?
(As an aside, everyone should listen to Mark Durkan's speech (transcript)in the aftermath of the publication of the Saville report on Bloody Sunday and the first British apology for the soldiers' actions that day and think about what we will now be missing from Westminster)
posted by knapah at 6:54 AM on June 11, 2017 [19 favorites]
If there's one thing most of the British public doesn't like it's having to think about NI politics ever, under any circumstances. Having that forced upon them may have consequences too.
posted by Artw at 6:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
(I'm not saying that's a good attitude to have, recent events clearly show that it isn't, but it's pretty clearly one that's there)
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Politics in the UK rarely has a greater radius than about 50 miles. NI suffers more than most because it's hard for any group in the UK to look at it and go 'we did a good job there'.
Which makes risking the GFA for political ends that are most likely unachievable in any case a particularly unpleasant move.
posted by Devonian at 7:03 AM on June 11, 2017
Which makes risking the GFA for political ends that are most likely unachievable in any case a particularly unpleasant move.
posted by Devonian at 7:03 AM on June 11, 2017
A bit of cheeriness - Channel 4 twitvid about the new Parliament's record-breaking diversity.
posted by Devonian at 7:34 AM on June 11, 2017
posted by Devonian at 7:34 AM on June 11, 2017
> "a lot less Labour supporters will be lending their votes to the Tories next time given what's happening now"
I ... do not have kind words about people who did this.
posted by kyrademon at 8:00 AM on June 11, 2017 [6 favorites]
I ... do not have kind words about people who did this.
posted by kyrademon at 8:00 AM on June 11, 2017 [6 favorites]
That's a real thing? Because ewww.
posted by Artw at 8:03 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:03 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Kezia Dugdale did her bit as leader of Scottish Labour by telling labour voters to vote Tory to stop the SNP. She seems to have helped achieve a Tory surge.
posted by gnuhavenpier at 8:22 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by gnuhavenpier at 8:22 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
I was going to say it was interesting that the most progressive parties outside England are all nationalist, and those relative half measures such as the SDLP or Scottish Labour are waning. I was thinking there were a lot of parallels. But I don't think the SDLP ever tried to get the DUP into Westminster to shore up the Union in the hopes of winning those seats back themselves one day.
posted by vbfg at 8:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 8:31 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
Artw -- Yep. Apparently screwing over another progressive left wing party is more important than actually running the government or getting the right wing out of power or anything.
posted by kyrademon at 8:44 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by kyrademon at 8:44 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
Who moved Judea to Scotland, then?
posted by delfin at 8:48 AM on June 11, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by delfin at 8:48 AM on June 11, 2017 [6 favorites]
Scottish politics has kinda been split six ways in the last couple of years the moment: Left/Right, pro/anti Brexit and pro/anti Independence... and for some people the last one is definitely more important that the first.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
I guess it's possible they just didn't want to be the escape boat.
posted by Artw at 8:58 AM on June 11, 2017
posted by Artw at 8:58 AM on June 11, 2017
To be fair, Kezia Dugdale didn't outright tell people to vote Tory. She said that there were seats in Scotland where the Tories were best placed to beat the SNP (in the context of arguing that Labour were best placed placed almost everywhere else). Not quite the same. But if you're wondering why on earth beating the SNP was the point of the campaign for them anyway.... yeah, you're not alone.
Pretty much the entire voting campaign from Labour - and LibDems, and Conservatives - in Scotland was single-platform anti-SNP "let's send Nicola a message!". And there were definite decisions by Con/Lab/LD to back off campaigning in seats where other parties were better placed to beat the SNP, in all directions. I don't think tactical campaigning is a bad thing in and of itself, if you share a goal that's bigger than your political differences, but I am pretty horrified that Labour and the LibDems consider "beat the SNP" to be that goal when the Conservatives are in power.
posted by Catseye at 8:58 AM on June 11, 2017 [13 favorites]
Pretty much the entire voting campaign from Labour - and LibDems, and Conservatives - in Scotland was single-platform anti-SNP "let's send Nicola a message!". And there were definite decisions by Con/Lab/LD to back off campaigning in seats where other parties were better placed to beat the SNP, in all directions. I don't think tactical campaigning is a bad thing in and of itself, if you share a goal that's bigger than your political differences, but I am pretty horrified that Labour and the LibDems consider "beat the SNP" to be that goal when the Conservatives are in power.
posted by Catseye at 8:58 AM on June 11, 2017 [13 favorites]
Gove is a fucking minister. Minister for the Environment. Michael fucking Gove is in the cabinet.
May is completely and utterly, without question, fucked.
posted by Talez at 11:08 AM on June 11, 2017 [16 favorites]
May is completely and utterly, without question, fucked.
posted by Talez at 11:08 AM on June 11, 2017 [16 favorites]
Yeah but his brief is environment, food, & rural affairs, so he has to pacify the farmers whose livelihoods are in massive danger from the Brexit he campaigned for.
posted by doop at 11:14 AM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by doop at 11:14 AM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
Is the talent pool of the Tory party so shallow that this is the best they can do?
posted by Happy Dave at 11:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Happy Dave at 11:35 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Liam Fox back too
to paraphrase roger ebert
"This cabinet doesn't scrape the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't below the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with barrels."
posted by lalochezia at 11:37 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
to paraphrase roger ebert
"This cabinet doesn't scrape the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't below the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with barrels."
posted by lalochezia at 11:37 AM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yeah but his brief is environment, food, & rural affairs, so he has to pacify the farmers whose livelihoods are in massive danger from the Brexit he campaigned for
Which they also all campaigned for.
posted by dng at 11:40 AM on June 11, 2017
Which they also all campaigned for.
posted by dng at 11:40 AM on June 11, 2017
knapah, thank you -- with one comment I think you answered about a dozen questions I've had about NI politics for a long time! I do hope the SDLP finds a way to move in the direction (or, more likely, to be pulled in the direction via the younger membership) you've suggested.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Is the talent pool of the Tory party so shallow that this is the best they can do?
If you stepped in it you wouldn't even get your toenails wet.
posted by Grangousier at 11:42 AM on June 11, 2017
If you stepped in it you wouldn't even get your toenails wet.
posted by Grangousier at 11:42 AM on June 11, 2017
Dear god... Andrea Leadsom has been made Leader of the House of Commons.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:53 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:53 AM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
Is this reshuffle May's formal surrender?
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:54 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:54 AM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
knapah, thank you -- with one comment I think you answered about a dozen questions I've had about NI politics for a long time! I do hope the SDLP finds a way to move in the direction (or, more likely, to be pulled in the direction via the younger membership) you've suggested.
No worries! Happy to try to answer any other questions people may have. I'm expecting a good chunk of my week to be explaining the DUP and NI politics to my colleagues.
posted by knapah at 11:57 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
No worries! Happy to try to answer any other questions people may have. I'm expecting a good chunk of my week to be explaining the DUP and NI politics to my colleagues.
posted by knapah at 11:57 AM on June 11, 2017 [8 favorites]
Which they also all campaigned for.
Granted that was back when the Leave campaign was still promising access to the Single Market...
posted by PenDevil at 11:58 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Granted that was back when the Leave campaign was still promising access to the Single Market...
posted by PenDevil at 11:58 AM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
The problem with politics everywhere at the moment is that one action results in an exponential number of unforeseen consequences. So a status quo cabinet may be the best bet at achieving stasis... for 24 hours or so.
posted by My Dad at 12:16 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by My Dad at 12:16 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
At least some farmers realised what Brexit was likely to do for their labour supply, never mind markets. In any case, he still gets to do the explaining to the leavers, should he not be able to live up to his promises.
posted by doop at 12:42 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by doop at 12:42 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Farmers Weekly backed a Remain vote, whilst acknowledging that the majority of their readers were likely to vote Leave.
The farmers that I used to work for made it very clear that Brexit was going to fuck their business, but the local consensus where I'm from originally was that the Tories would make special arrangements to bail them out anyway.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:53 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
The farmers that I used to work for made it very clear that Brexit was going to fuck their business, but the local consensus where I'm from originally was that the Tories would make special arrangements to bail them out anyway.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:53 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
It looks as if the portrayal of the DUP as dour homophobes might not be entirely true.
posted by reynir at 12:57 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by reynir at 12:57 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
One thing that's kinda got swamped by the other news is the fact the polls, with a couple of exceptions, got it wrong again... Kellner puts it down to them underestimating the youth turn-out.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:03 PM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:03 PM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
Tories ‘spent more than £1m’ on negative Facebook adverts attacking Jeremy Corbyn But combination of celebrity endorsements and slick, shareable videos helped Labour win online campaign battle
Was it the Corbyn memes wot won it? Here are some of the best
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:36 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
Was it the Corbyn memes wot won it? Here are some of the best
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:36 PM on June 11, 2017 [3 favorites]
He rubs up a lot of people the wrong way, and he's v much pro independence to be entirely neutral... but for in depth analysis of Scottish politics there's possibly no better place than Wings Over Scotland.
He's looked at all the results in depth now and his conclusion is that although there was a lot of tactical voting - a was a key issue in a number of seats - it's mainly been the a Tory rise that led to the SNP loss of seats (there was no real Labour surge north of the border and the seats they picked up were from SNP losing votes and them winning by default)
Earlier he discussed just how close everything was in Scotland - a variation of just around 3000 votes in the right places could have had the SNP on either 24 or 41 seats (40% or 70%)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:18 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
He's looked at all the results in depth now and his conclusion is that although there was a lot of tactical voting - a was a key issue in a number of seats - it's mainly been the a Tory rise that led to the SNP loss of seats (there was no real Labour surge north of the border and the seats they picked up were from SNP losing votes and them winning by default)
Earlier he discussed just how close everything was in Scotland - a variation of just around 3000 votes in the right places could have had the SNP on either 24 or 41 seats (40% or 70%)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:18 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
This is the end of a Sky interview with May from today. The interviewer asks some questions which are blunt to the point of brutal - its worth listening to for them, since May says very little of substance. What's going on behind the eyes doesn't really match the vapid answers, but I am lacking objectivity.
posted by biffa at 3:33 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by biffa at 3:33 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
Do you think that there's some small portion of her psyche screaming 'WHY ARE YOU REPEATING A TALKING POINT AGAIN? YOU SOUND LIKE A BROKEN ROBOT! SPEAK NORMALLY FOR GOD'S SAKE'? Or has she entirely lost any awareness of how she sounds now?
posted by Happy Dave at 10:26 PM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave at 10:26 PM on June 11, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think she’s clutching on to the talking points with the desperate intensity of a shipwrecked sailor hanging on to a small slippery chunk of timber.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 10:55 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 10:55 PM on June 11, 2017 [4 favorites]
Brexit II: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
(Features a special surprise guest at the end, which I will not spoil.)
posted by zachlipton at 11:34 PM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
(Features a special surprise guest at the end, which I will not spoil.)
posted by zachlipton at 11:34 PM on June 11, 2017 [5 favorites]
That link isn't working in the UK and the only other version I can find doesn't get as far as the special guest, so spoil away.
posted by biffa at 11:51 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 11:51 PM on June 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Damn. I thought the official links weren't region locked, since he's done episodes that have been a hit with UK audiences before. Sorry. Feel free to post an alternate link if anyone have one.
Anyway, spoiler: the special surprise guest is Lord Buckethead.
posted by zachlipton at 12:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Anyway, spoiler: the special surprise guest is Lord Buckethead.
posted by zachlipton at 12:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Heee, calling May "the Thatcher in the Rye" is my favorite thing ever.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:11 AM on June 12, 2017 [25 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:11 AM on June 12, 2017 [25 favorites]
John Oliver is broadcast in the UK on a Monday night on Sky Atlantic
posted by toamouse at 12:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by toamouse at 12:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
At the rate things keep happening, 24 hours seems like an unacceptable delay for topical satire.
posted by the latin mouse at 1:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by the latin mouse at 1:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [10 favorites]
Some voter data breakdown from Lord Ashcroft. Interesting age divide: as expected Labour does well with younger voters, Conservatives with older, but the tipping point is older than you might expect. 35-44s heavily Labour, 45-54s close to even but tipping slightly Conservative, and it's only the over-55s that go really heavily Conservative.
posted by Catseye at 2:16 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:16 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
Some of us middle aged gits remember when tuition fees were free and don't want to deny something to the young kids after we benefitted from it ourselves.
posted by tel3path at 2:27 AM on June 12, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 2:27 AM on June 12, 2017 [20 favorites]
Not sure how serious this is, but seems EU might be running out of patience with the UK clown convention.
posted by effbot at 2:55 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by effbot at 2:55 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
So the day of the election I got only 3 hours' sleep because I had to catch a flight.
Then realized I wasn't about to get any sleep the next night either.
I don't drink so I couldn't bender my way through it like many people seemed to. Instead, I ate cookies.
Continuously, all night and throughout the weekend. No exercise per se, just walking to and from the station and to the airport in intervals of a few minutes, while carrying a full backpack. Of cookies. Obviously the backpack had an ever decreasing weight as I went along.
I spent the whole weekend sleeping, eating cookies and wiping tears of laughter from my face while reading the news.
This morning I weighed myself and I have lost 2lbs.
The Tories have measurably made me weak with laughter.
posted by tel3path at 3:06 AM on June 12, 2017 [21 favorites]
Then realized I wasn't about to get any sleep the next night either.
I don't drink so I couldn't bender my way through it like many people seemed to. Instead, I ate cookies.
Continuously, all night and throughout the weekend. No exercise per se, just walking to and from the station and to the airport in intervals of a few minutes, while carrying a full backpack. Of cookies. Obviously the backpack had an ever decreasing weight as I went along.
I spent the whole weekend sleeping, eating cookies and wiping tears of laughter from my face while reading the news.
This morning I weighed myself and I have lost 2lbs.
The Tories have measurably made me weak with laughter.
posted by tel3path at 3:06 AM on June 12, 2017 [21 favorites]
Also, why during her own campaign was TM wearing a bright red suit? All the Labour women had red suits and blouses, I don't recall any of the opposition putting on cobalt blue for the occasion.
I know wearing the same colour gets a bit boring but a Tory wearing a bright red suit for her own election? Talk about not believing in yourself.
posted by tel3path at 3:09 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
I know wearing the same colour gets a bit boring but a Tory wearing a bright red suit for her own election? Talk about not believing in yourself.
posted by tel3path at 3:09 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Recent David Allen Green Twitter thread:
1. So unprepared for their victory, and so unaware of what to do next, Brexiteers fell for the May approach. Nodding along, with each error.posted by Grangousier at 3:21 AM on June 12, 2017 [11 favorites]
2. Any criticism of May was "remoaning". She had to be defended without question, all along she was making a successful Brexit less likely.
3. So protected was May from serious criticism, because of Brexit partisanship, mistakes were getting bigger. Hubris.
4. Until she made the biggest mistake possible: triggering Article 50s two year period then calling an election.
5. That mistake did not come out of the blue. It was just the latest misjudgment in a sequence of unforced errors she was getting away with.
6. If Brexiteerers had spent less time telling critics to "get over it" they could have checked Mays clumsy tactics. She was real problem.
7. Brexit may be beyond any politician. No PM could do it. But.
8. Having a realistic, open and collaborative approach to a complex task is the fundamental requirement.
Now perhaps too late.
/ends
I hope the infighting is savage but above all, quick. I cannot understand why this so-called career politician is so obtuse as to put herself up for nothing but further, deeper, humiliation. David Allen Green above sums it up very well; and yet this morning's Guardian headline is
Conservative bickering is height of self-indulgence, says David Davis (current Brexit Minister. Well he would, wouldn't he?)
Brexit secretary says government needs to get back to work and Theresa May is ‘incredibly effective’ as PM
Woops, Brexit Secretary, not Minister
posted by glasseyes at 3:35 AM on June 12, 2017
Conservative bickering is height of self-indulgence, says David Davis (current Brexit Minister. Well he would, wouldn't he?)
Brexit secretary says government needs to get back to work and Theresa May is ‘incredibly effective’ as PM
Woops, Brexit Secretary, not Minister
posted by glasseyes at 3:35 AM on June 12, 2017
Grangousier, thanks for posting that acute summing up! It's painfully accurate.
posted by glasseyes at 3:37 AM on June 12, 2017
posted by glasseyes at 3:37 AM on June 12, 2017
4. Until she made the biggest mistake possible: triggering Article 50s two year period then calling an election.
Article 50 was triggered after a vote in Parliament where Corbyn called a 3 line whip to support it's passage. Anyone who voted for Labour thinking that this election was a Brexit referendum version 2.0 is severely mistaken. It is going to happen even if Corbyn becomes PM in the next 2 years.
posted by PenDevil at 4:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Article 50 was triggered after a vote in Parliament where Corbyn called a 3 line whip to support it's passage. Anyone who voted for Labour thinking that this election was a Brexit referendum version 2.0 is severely mistaken. It is going to happen even if Corbyn becomes PM in the next 2 years.
posted by PenDevil at 4:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
But it’s the timing: we have only two years to renegotiate our relationship with the EU. Theresa May took months out of that to hold an election, and the result of the election is going to mean even more time wasted.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:19 AM on June 12, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:19 AM on June 12, 2017 [9 favorites]
It also meant that, as it seemed like brexit was locked in, instead of all the ukip voters switching to the conservatives and giving them their expected landslide, half of them went to labour and gave us them this instead.
posted by dng at 4:38 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dng at 4:38 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
It is going to happen even if Corbyn becomes PM in the next 2 years.
OTOH, if it becomes apparent (as it almost certainly will) that any kind of “soft Brexit” is nonsense, and the options are either a backdown (with perhaps some kind of fig leaf to save face) or making a glorious bonfire of the nation and to hell with the naysayers, Labour are perhaps more likely to choose the former than the latter.
posted by acb at 4:39 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
OTOH, if it becomes apparent (as it almost certainly will) that any kind of “soft Brexit” is nonsense, and the options are either a backdown (with perhaps some kind of fig leaf to save face) or making a glorious bonfire of the nation and to hell with the naysayers, Labour are perhaps more likely to choose the former than the latter.
posted by acb at 4:39 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
Then Labour can only support a EFTA/EEA type solution and then get hammered by Tories and the Murdoch press for being subject to the four freedoms and all the EU regulations with no power in their legislation.
posted by PenDevil at 4:44 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by PenDevil at 4:44 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Also how is Corbyn going to justify calling a three line whip on Article 50 and then walk that back?
posted by PenDevil at 4:46 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by PenDevil at 4:46 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Two years is a long time in politics.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:49 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:49 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Prior to the election, the consensus seemed to have been accepted by lots of people on both sides of the House that Brexit means Brexit, the will of the people must be respected, blindly march forward over the cliff. The consensus must surely be weakened by this: you can’t read much about people’s views on Brexit into the GE results, but certainly they weren’t impressed by what Theresa May was offering. That provides some political cover for Remainers to stick up for their convictions. It takes some of the wind out of the sails of the Brexiters.
And if, for example, the UK sees sustained inflation in the meantime and there’s a stream of bad news about e.g. companies moving to Europe, difficulty recruiting NHS staff… well, the national mood can change.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:01 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
And if, for example, the UK sees sustained inflation in the meantime and there’s a stream of bad news about e.g. companies moving to Europe, difficulty recruiting NHS staff… well, the national mood can change.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:01 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Anyway, spoiler: the special surprise guest is Lord Buckethead.
Well now I want to see it.
posted by biffa at 5:07 AM on June 12, 2017
Well now I want to see it.
posted by biffa at 5:07 AM on June 12, 2017
Queen's Speech delayed 'for a few days', says BBC'
Constitutional crisis already? Well done.
posted by Devonian at 5:08 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Constitutional crisis already? Well done.
posted by Devonian at 5:08 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Then Labour can only support a EFTA/EEA type solution and then get hammered by Tories and the Murdoch press for being subject to the four freedoms and all the EU regulations with no power in their legislation.
I think we can write off "getting hammered by the Murdoch press" as a major worry after this. They've been doing that, and Labour still got a massive swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:20 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
I think we can write off "getting hammered by the Murdoch press" as a major worry after this. They've been doing that, and Labour still got a massive swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:20 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
From the guardian story about that: Any delay in the Queen’s speech would be difficult to accommodate, given the monarch is scheduled to attend Royal Ascot from next Tuesday until the end of next week.
I think that's a pretty fitting illustration of just about everything about our country these days.
posted by dng at 5:22 AM on June 12, 2017 [11 favorites]
I think that's a pretty fitting illustration of just about everything about our country these days.
posted by dng at 5:22 AM on June 12, 2017 [11 favorites]
Also this: Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt says the Queen’s speech is being delayed because the Conservatives and DUP have not agreed a government programme yet and it takes several days to write the speech on goat’s skin.
posted by dng at 5:27 AM on June 12, 2017
posted by dng at 5:27 AM on June 12, 2017
More on that - a quite bizarre tale, which I don't believe for a second.
The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.
Really.
However, there's still no agreement with the DUP, which one might suspect is a bit more apposite to the (pretty much unheard of) delay. BBC also saying that DUP will want to 'be a part of' both the legislative agenda and the Brexit negotiations' - which will also be delayed 'for a few days', although nobody seems to be suggesting this is due to a lack of goat epidermis.
David Davis was on the wireless this morning saying (in effect) 'Hard Brexit, Hard Brexit' like a priapic nativist parrot, but as there's still no official government position on Brexit (damn goats), one can assume that it's all still muckety-fuckety.
Official line on all this seems to be that speculation is unhelpful and unwarranted, and everything is proceeding as planned in the interests of the nation.
And if you believe that, you'll believe The Thick Of It was fiction.
posted by Devonian at 5:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [10 favorites]
The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.
Really.
However, there's still no agreement with the DUP, which one might suspect is a bit more apposite to the (pretty much unheard of) delay. BBC also saying that DUP will want to 'be a part of' both the legislative agenda and the Brexit negotiations' - which will also be delayed 'for a few days', although nobody seems to be suggesting this is due to a lack of goat epidermis.
David Davis was on the wireless this morning saying (in effect) 'Hard Brexit, Hard Brexit' like a priapic nativist parrot, but as there's still no official government position on Brexit (damn goats), one can assume that it's all still muckety-fuckety.
Official line on all this seems to be that speculation is unhelpful and unwarranted, and everything is proceeding as planned in the interests of the nation.
And if you believe that, you'll believe The Thick Of It was fiction.
posted by Devonian at 5:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [10 favorites]
Technically not actual goat skin any more:
It is not on vellum anymore. It is on "goatskin parchment paper" but confusingly it's not actually goatskin. However it is very high quality, thick paper, which is why the ink takes several days to dry, and it then needs to be bound into a booklet, before being sent on to Her Majesty for signing. So it did have to go to the printers last week. And the paper does have the watermark of a goat....
posted by PenDevil at 5:29 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
It is not on vellum anymore. It is on "goatskin parchment paper" but confusingly it's not actually goatskin. However it is very high quality, thick paper, which is why the ink takes several days to dry, and it then needs to be bound into a booklet, before being sent on to Her Majesty for signing. So it did have to go to the printers last week. And the paper does have the watermark of a goat....
posted by PenDevil at 5:29 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
The Last Week Tonight video on Facebook played fine for me in the UK.
posted by grahamparks at 5:32 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by grahamparks at 5:32 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Our money made of meat, and our laws of leather.
posted by dng at 5:33 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by dng at 5:33 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt says the Queen’s speech is being delayed because the Conservatives and DUP have not agreed a government programme yet and it takes several days to write the speech on goat’s skin.
-->
The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.
Wow, I thought that was some kind of crack about the unholy alliance between DUP and the Tories. You guys are something else.
posted by indubitable at 5:42 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
-->
The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.
Wow, I thought that was some kind of crack about the unholy alliance between DUP and the Tories. You guys are something else.
posted by indubitable at 5:42 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah, and I'm not even a royalist but I don't see why the Queen should have to disrupt her fun at Ascot to accommodate the shenanigans of the infant school problem class.
posted by tel3path at 5:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 5:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [11 favorites]
Here's the Shadow Brexit Secretary on negotiating the four freedoms:
Q: But if having access to the single market is so important, why not accept free movement?
Starmer says this is a matter for negotiation. He says he is confident that this can be done.
Q: But if someone like Angela Merkel says this is non-negotiable, what would you do?
Starmer says you would have a negotiation about this.
Q: But what about immigration?
Starmer says it is clear from the EU referendum that immigration rules must change. You could tighten it, and apply free movement just to workers and their families, he says.
This sound like it's going to be a balls up no matter which party is doing the negotiating.
posted by PenDevil at 5:55 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
Q: But if having access to the single market is so important, why not accept free movement?
Starmer says this is a matter for negotiation. He says he is confident that this can be done.
Q: But if someone like Angela Merkel says this is non-negotiable, what would you do?
Starmer says you would have a negotiation about this.
Q: But what about immigration?
Starmer says it is clear from the EU referendum that immigration rules must change. You could tighten it, and apply free movement just to workers and their families, he says.
This sound like it's going to be a balls up no matter which party is doing the negotiating.
posted by PenDevil at 5:55 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
No, I really mean it - why should *anyone* take this 'government' seriously after this?
Like I said, I'm not a royalist but at this point we *need* the Queen because she's the only person in power who's not a laughingstock.
posted by tel3path at 5:56 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
Like I said, I'm not a royalist but at this point we *need* the Queen because she's the only person in power who's not a laughingstock.
posted by tel3path at 5:56 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
The underlying axiom of Brexit is that we are more competent to run our own Government and make our own laws than is the EU.
I put it to the House that this axiom is demonstrably untrue.
posted by Devonian at 5:59 AM on June 12, 2017 [45 favorites]
I put it to the House that this axiom is demonstrably untrue.
posted by Devonian at 5:59 AM on June 12, 2017 [45 favorites]
This sound like it's going to be a balls up no matter which party is doing the negotiating.
People inside government have been making noises about a "transitional period" since about week four after the referendum.
I've mostly been assuming the first thing we'll quietly negotiate, regardless of who is nominally in charge, is a "transitional period" (lasting, oh, I don't know, a decade?). Basically, exactly what George Osborne said.
Punting the problem is so much easier than actually dealing with it... if I planned to do that, I'd be blustering about cliff edges, too.
posted by Leon at 6:06 AM on June 12, 2017
People inside government have been making noises about a "transitional period" since about week four after the referendum.
I've mostly been assuming the first thing we'll quietly negotiate, regardless of who is nominally in charge, is a "transitional period" (lasting, oh, I don't know, a decade?). Basically, exactly what George Osborne said.
Punting the problem is so much easier than actually dealing with it... if I planned to do that, I'd be blustering about cliff edges, too.
posted by Leon at 6:06 AM on June 12, 2017
Starmer says it is clear from the EU referendum that immigration rules must change. You could tighten it, and apply free movement just to workers and their families, he says.
Am I right in thinking that this is one of the permitted restrictions EU countries can already use (and one that most do use). If so, it's sly to sell it as a new restriction, but maybe politically astute.
posted by ambrosen at 6:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Am I right in thinking that this is one of the permitted restrictions EU countries can already use (and one that most do use). If so, it's sly to sell it as a new restriction, but maybe politically astute.
posted by ambrosen at 6:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm relieved to discover that a goat did not die in vain for its skin to be inscribed with the Queen's Speech of a Tory majority government that never was.
posted by acb at 6:16 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 6:16 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
For a Tory majority, they use pig skin, that way the head doesn't go to waste.
posted by crocomancer at 6:25 AM on June 12, 2017 [19 favorites]
posted by crocomancer at 6:25 AM on June 12, 2017 [19 favorites]
I'm relieved to discover that a goat did not die in vain for its skin to be inscribed with the Queen's Speech of a Tory majority government that never was.
Maybe they could just keep on using the same goat. A palimpsest of broken ambitions...
posted by Diablevert at 6:27 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
Maybe they could just keep on using the same goat. A palimpsest of broken ambitions...
posted by Diablevert at 6:27 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
> Am I right in thinking that this is one of the permitted restrictions EU countries can already use (and one that most do use). If so, it's sly to sell it as a new restriction, but maybe politically astute.
You can send people packing if they haven't found a job in three months. We just don't bother.
posted by Leon at 6:31 AM on June 12, 2017
You can send people packing if they haven't found a job in three months. We just don't bother.
posted by Leon at 6:31 AM on June 12, 2017
You can send people packing if they haven't found a job in three months. We just don't bother.
Not quite. You can require them to "register their presence" and have (private) health insurance, and cut them off from access to any benefits, but if they do that, you can't throw them out.
The UK currently does the latter, sort-of the middle (you're not thrown out for not having health insurance, but your residency isn't counted toward the five year requirement for permanent residency, for example) and the former is largely irrelevant to the UK (which doesn't have anything like the central person registries of the Scandinavian countries, for example).
posted by Dysk at 7:14 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not quite. You can require them to "register their presence" and have (private) health insurance, and cut them off from access to any benefits, but if they do that, you can't throw them out.
The UK currently does the latter, sort-of the middle (you're not thrown out for not having health insurance, but your residency isn't counted toward the five year requirement for permanent residency, for example) and the former is largely irrelevant to the UK (which doesn't have anything like the central person registries of the Scandinavian countries, for example).
posted by Dysk at 7:14 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
ha ha ha. Times (paywalled, but you get the sense of it from what's above the bar): We should be challenging the naive, unaffordable views of many under-25s, not kowtowing to them. And I've seen a lot of grumbling about Young People Today elsewhere - they're naive, they just don't understand how public finances work, they all love Corbyn because he bribed them with tuition fees,* student narcissism idealism Instagram something about hipsters and so on and so on.
Well done, Conservative commentariat, that's definitely going to get the youth vote on your side!
Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.
We've had seven years of austerity. Much of the electorate was willing to buy into that to start with, sold as a short-term unpleasant necessity for long-term gain. But after seven years with no light at the end of the tunnel, and seven years of "we'll pay off the deficit by2015 2017 2026 for sure!" - well. It's going to take more than telling nurses "there's no magic money tree!" to turn public opinion round on that one.
(* tuition fees = bribe. Triple lock = sound fiscal policy not a bribe at all)
(** although some of us were once upon a time!)
posted by Catseye at 7:26 AM on June 12, 2017 [14 favorites]
Well done, Conservative commentariat, that's definitely going to get the youth vote on your side!
Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.
We've had seven years of austerity. Much of the electorate was willing to buy into that to start with, sold as a short-term unpleasant necessity for long-term gain. But after seven years with no light at the end of the tunnel, and seven years of "we'll pay off the deficit by
(* tuition fees = bribe. Triple lock = sound fiscal policy not a bribe at all)
(** although some of us were once upon a time!)
posted by Catseye at 7:26 AM on June 12, 2017 [14 favorites]
Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.
Weep. I wish I had a career and a mortgage and maybe even kids.
posted by dng at 7:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Weep. I wish I had a career and a mortgage and maybe even kids.
posted by dng at 7:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Don't forget that, as looks increasingly likely, the Queen's Speech occurs after midsummer, then the Morris Dancers who deliver it to her at the palace are required by law to use a different dance at the ceremony than if the Queen's Speech occurred between Whitsun and Midsummer. These routines take time to learn, so it can't all be done in an unseemly hurry, like some ugh "American" election. Without laws, no traditions; without traditions, no laws.
posted by Wordshore at 7:31 AM on June 12, 2017 [18 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 7:31 AM on June 12, 2017 [18 favorites]
If this delay is genuinely due to goatskin parchment, I will eat somebody else's Brexit book.
posted by Catseye at 7:34 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 7:34 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Don't forget that, as looks increasingly likely, the Queen's Speech occurs after midsummer, then the Morris Dancers who deliver it to her at the palace are required by law to use a different dance at the ceremony than if the Queen's Speech occurred between Whitsun and Midsummer.
Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?
posted by Diablevert at 7:40 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?
posted by Diablevert at 7:40 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?
With some thrumbucking in the middle, yes, that's the one!
posted by Wordshore at 7:42 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
With some thrumbucking in the middle, yes, that's the one!
posted by Wordshore at 7:42 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
catseye: Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.
The new electoral map of Britain:
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
The new electoral map of Britain:
Labour, founded as the party of the working class, and focused on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, gained the most ground in 2017 in seats with the largest concentrations of middle-class professionals and the rich. The Conservatives, long the party of capital and the middle class, made their largest gains in the poorest seats of England and Wales. Even more remarkably, after years of austerity, the Conservatives’ advance on 2015 was largest in the seats where average incomes fell most over the past five years, while the party gained no ground at all in the seats where average incomes rose most.Interesting inversion there. Not the first time it's happened, I think, but it seems to be getting more pronounced.
Britain’s class politics has been turned completely upside down in 2017. Wealthy professionals in leafy suburbs have swung behind a Labour leader who pledges to sharply increase their taxes, while it was struggling blue-collar workers in deprived and declining seats who were most attracted by the party of austerity cuts to public services and welfare.
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Must be all that 'economic anxiety'.
posted by PenDevil at 7:49 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by PenDevil at 7:49 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
And if, for example, the UK sees sustained inflation in the meantime and there’s a stream of bad news about e.g. companies moving to Europe, difficulty recruiting NHS staff… well, the national mood can change.
There has been a sharp drop in nurses registering to work in the UK since the EU referendum, figures suggest. Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register, compared to 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.
posted by dng at 7:58 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
There has been a sharp drop in nurses registering to work in the UK since the EU referendum, figures suggest. Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register, compared to 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.
posted by dng at 7:58 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
The article also talked about how much the divide is between graduates and school-leavers.
I remember reading an opinion piece sometime in the distant past which argued that, historically, higher taxes have mostly gone toward expanding the ranks of well-educated government employees, and not so much toward improving the lives of the poor except via services offered via those well-educated government employees. It's not that the poor gain zero benefit from higher taxes and higher spending, but the educated benefit most of all. For the poor to vote against that is not completely ridiculous or inexplicable.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 AM on June 12, 2017
I remember reading an opinion piece sometime in the distant past which argued that, historically, higher taxes have mostly gone toward expanding the ranks of well-educated government employees, and not so much toward improving the lives of the poor except via services offered via those well-educated government employees. It's not that the poor gain zero benefit from higher taxes and higher spending, but the educated benefit most of all. For the poor to vote against that is not completely ridiculous or inexplicable.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 AM on June 12, 2017
Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?
What your country has managed to do with the English language in our absence is amazing.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
What your country has managed to do with the English language in our absence is amazing.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
I remember reading an opinion piece sometime in the distant past which argued that, historically, higher taxes have mostly gone toward expanding the ranks of well-educated government employees
I would be interested to read something like this, because that would make it the absolute opposite of the US - in the US, government hiring is fantastic for marginalized people, since it's practically the only sector where entry-level positions are relatively well-paid and there's a mechanism for making sure that women and POC are hired at something sort of like their prevalence in the population. Government hiring, in fact, benefits the less educated here far more than the more educated - I don't make as much as I would in the private sector (by a little bit - i'm right at where this kicks in) but the cleaners, entry level secretaries, entry level clerical people, etc make a lot more than the private sector.
Is this because things are just fairer in the UK in general, so getting a well-paid working class job is easier and government jobs not as important?
posted by Frowner at 8:11 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
I add that working class white people in the US often haaaaate government jobs, even - and I can testify to this fact - when they personally are employed by the government.
posted by Frowner at 8:12 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 8:12 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
I don't think we can read too much into how Conservative or Labour vote share increased in raw numbers in poorer areas, because of how much the UKIP collapse warps it. So somewhere like Sunderland Central, Conservative vote share increased more than Labour vote share, but both increased off the back of what was formerly a big UKIP share of the vote.
At any rate the vote share by socioeconomic class on the Ashcroft site still has the Labour vote lowest among the rich and highest among the poor, so I don't think we can go so far as to say that the poor are embracing Conservative austerity while the wealthy are rejecting it. Although, this is the world where Labour won fecking Kensington so it is all a bit confusing.
posted by Catseye at 8:12 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
At any rate the vote share by socioeconomic class on the Ashcroft site still has the Labour vote lowest among the rich and highest among the poor, so I don't think we can go so far as to say that the poor are embracing Conservative austerity while the wealthy are rejecting it. Although, this is the world where Labour won fecking Kensington so it is all a bit confusing.
posted by Catseye at 8:12 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
It's not that the poor gain zero benefit from higher taxes and higher spending, but the educated benefit most of all. For the poor to vote against that is not completely ridiculous or inexplicable.
In this particular case, it's been made pretty clear that one of the major expenses to be covered by Labour's tax rises is an abolition of tuition fees for university. Add the Tory policies on grammar schools (now likely to be quietly dropped) and that explanation makes less sense, unless you're really wanting to make sure that "poor" and "uneducated" can be used as synonyms.
posted by Dysk at 8:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
In this particular case, it's been made pretty clear that one of the major expenses to be covered by Labour's tax rises is an abolition of tuition fees for university. Add the Tory policies on grammar schools (now likely to be quietly dropped) and that explanation makes less sense, unless you're really wanting to make sure that "poor" and "uneducated" can be used as synonyms.
posted by Dysk at 8:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Is this because things are just fairer in the UK in general, so getting a well-paid working class job is easier
Hahahahahahahaha! No.
Well, okay, maybe easier, but that's in the same way that the surface of the sun is cooler than two meters deep.
posted by Dysk at 8:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Hahahahahahahaha! No.
Well, okay, maybe easier, but that's in the same way that the surface of the sun is cooler than two meters deep.
posted by Dysk at 8:15 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Frowner: I would be interested to read something like this, because that would make it the absolute opposite of the US - in the US, government hiring is fantastic for marginalized people, since it's practically the only sector where entry-level positions are relatively well-paid and there's a mechanism for making sure that women and POC are hired at something sort of like their prevalence in the population.
For all I know, the opinion piece I'm remembering was written by some blowhard American conservative, and its premise may not even be true. It struck me as an interesting argument nonetheless.
I add that working class white people in the US often haaaaate government jobs, even - and I can testify to this fact - when they personally are employed by the government.
Lol, yes, that may be a better explanation.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 AM on June 12, 2017
For all I know, the opinion piece I'm remembering was written by some blowhard American conservative, and its premise may not even be true. It struck me as an interesting argument nonetheless.
I add that working class white people in the US often haaaaate government jobs, even - and I can testify to this fact - when they personally are employed by the government.
Lol, yes, that may be a better explanation.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 AM on June 12, 2017
Getting a well-paid *middle class* job is out of reach for most people in the UK. Britain is a low-wage, high-cost-of-living economy.
posted by tel3path at 8:21 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 8:21 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
What your country has managed to do with the English language in our absence is amazing.
Ah, yes. The good old days. The American Occupation of Britain 1942-1945: "overpaid, oversexed and over here".
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:26 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Ah, yes. The good old days. The American Occupation of Britain 1942-1945: "overpaid, oversexed and over here".
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:26 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
I find it interesting that people are blaming than under-25s for not knowing how finances work, when I'm mid-30s and most of my friends have well-paying jobs and are quite aware of how government finances work and extremely willing to spend lots of government money on free tuition and suchlike.
We know that these programs will be expensive and will require massive changes to the tax code that will impede corporations and the wealthy. That's why we want them. It's good that we have something useful to spend all that money on.
posted by Merus at 8:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [19 favorites]
We know that these programs will be expensive and will require massive changes to the tax code that will impede corporations and the wealthy. That's why we want them. It's good that we have something useful to spend all that money on.
posted by Merus at 8:28 AM on June 12, 2017 [19 favorites]
Yeah and like I said, some of us are old enough to remember the times before tuition fees were even thought of.
posted by tel3path at 8:35 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by tel3path at 8:35 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah and like I said, some of us are old enough to remember the times before tuition fees were even thought of.
Ironically it was the Tories who abolished the fees and (New) Labour that brought them back.
posted by Talez at 8:40 AM on June 12, 2017
Ironically it was the Tories who abolished the fees and (New) Labour that brought them back.
posted by Talez at 8:40 AM on June 12, 2017
I was in the first year to pay tuition fees and miss the grant, fun fun. Still, the tuition fees I paid were nothing compared to what today's fee-paying graduates will be facing.
posted by Catseye at 8:41 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 8:41 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
A Twitter thread about vellum and ink-drying times.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [8 favorites]
Not "ironically", since Blair was a Thatcherite, literally.
posted by tel3path at 8:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 8:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
My family was poor and thanks to taxpayers and the Welfare State I was paid to study at a British university. The student grant paid for my student life (fees, accommodation, books, food, beer, drugs, clothes). The UK was able to do that then (1967-70).
My nephew and niece in the 21st century? Up to their eyeballs in debt.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:53 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
My nephew and niece in the 21st century? Up to their eyeballs in debt.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:53 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Yeah. So it's really more like the government that doesn't understand how finances work, if they can't figure out how to pay for stuff they used to be able to afford.
Maybe if they spent less on avocado toast and duck houses.
posted by tel3path at 9:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [13 favorites]
Maybe if they spent less on avocado toast and duck houses.
posted by tel3path at 9:03 AM on June 12, 2017 [13 favorites]
and snap elections.
posted by Catseye at 9:05 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 9:05 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
And massively complex negotiations for extricating the nation from the continent next door.
posted by tel3path at 9:08 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by tel3path at 9:08 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
As someone who works with book history, today is a day of ALL THE GIFTS.
posted by kariebookish at 9:09 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by kariebookish at 9:09 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
Something I just learned from the Gruaniad Live updates...
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:24 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Normally appearances by the prime minister at the [Conservative backbench 1922 committee] are marked by the excited banging of desks.Jolly japes, eh, chaps!
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:24 AM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Normally appearances by the prime minister at the [Conservative backbench 1922 committee] are marked by the excited banging of desks.
Presumably the banging of hands is considered more propitious than the banging of heads.
posted by rongorongo at 9:39 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Presumably the banging of hands is considered more propitious than the banging of heads.
posted by rongorongo at 9:39 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Theresa May met with her Conservative backbenchers and declares: “I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it”.posted by EndsOfInvention at 9:42 AM on June 12, 2017
If I hear one more fucking fifty something minister who lived through free tuition and steadily growing wages telling me I don't understand how finances work, I will spit nails.
Motherfucker, all I do is figure out how finances work. If you're under 40 and middle class or lower it's a necessary survival skill, purely because of the debt load and shitty wages.
posted by Happy Dave at 9:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [31 favorites]
Motherfucker, all I do is figure out how finances work. If you're under 40 and middle class or lower it's a necessary survival skill, purely because of the debt load and shitty wages.
posted by Happy Dave at 9:43 AM on June 12, 2017 [31 favorites]
You know... I have to wonder if TM wearing red on election day *really was* a sign that she just wants to make it all go away by losing.
Saying she got them into this and she's gonna get them out? Doctor, it hurts when I do this...
posted by tel3path at 9:45 AM on June 12, 2017
Saying she got them into this and she's gonna get them out? Doctor, it hurts when I do this...
posted by tel3path at 9:45 AM on June 12, 2017
May, 2017: Young people are too lazy too vote.
June, 2017: Young people are too stupid to vote for the right person.
Anyway, alls I can say is that with nearly 70% voter turnout, well-done, UK! I believe Canada had the same voter turnout in 2015, up ten percentage points.
posted by My Dad at 9:48 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
June, 2017: Young people are too stupid to vote for the right person.
Anyway, alls I can say is that with nearly 70% voter turnout, well-done, UK! I believe Canada had the same voter turnout in 2015, up ten percentage points.
posted by My Dad at 9:48 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
"I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it."
Footage has emerged from the meeting.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:53 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Footage has emerged from the meeting.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:53 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Best Tweet:
I was Director of the @UKParlArchives for 6 years and I can tell you that the Queen's Speech is not made of parchment, goat or otherwise.
posted by Devonian at 10:02 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
I was Director of the @UKParlArchives for 6 years and I can tell you that the Queen's Speech is not made of parchment, goat or otherwise.
posted by Devonian at 10:02 AM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
MODEST PROPOSAL: Write the speech on the side of one of the horses and she can deliver it from Ascot.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:13 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
For any of y'all like me in the States who were totally clueless about the Queen's Speech, here's a Wikipedia page about the Opening of Parliament. It's a pretty interesting read, as it describes the ceremony for the Opening of Parliament, and the historical reasons for some of the stranger customs.
Some highlights:
* The cellars of Palace of Westminster is searched due to the Gunpowder Plot of 1605, wherein English Catholics tried to overthrow the Protestant King James I.
* The Vice-Chamberlain of the Queen's household is taken as a hostage to ensure the safe return of the Monarch: "The tradition stems from the time of Charles I, who had a contentious relationship with Parliament and was eventually beheaded in 1649 during the Civil War between the monarchy and Parliament. A copy of Charles I's death warrant is displayed in the robing room used by the Queen as a ceremonial reminder of what can happen to a Monarch who attempts to interfere with Parliament."
* The Monarch delivers a speech outlining the legislative goals/agenda of the the government. The speech is written by the PM and her ministers. The Monarch reads the speech from the faux-goatskin vellum paper.
* After the Monarch's Speech, the Houses of Parliament debate the contents of the speech? I'm not totally clear on this point, so if anyone has any further information, I'd love to hear it.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:57 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Some highlights:
* The cellars of Palace of Westminster is searched due to the Gunpowder Plot of 1605, wherein English Catholics tried to overthrow the Protestant King James I.
* The Vice-Chamberlain of the Queen's household is taken as a hostage to ensure the safe return of the Monarch: "The tradition stems from the time of Charles I, who had a contentious relationship with Parliament and was eventually beheaded in 1649 during the Civil War between the monarchy and Parliament. A copy of Charles I's death warrant is displayed in the robing room used by the Queen as a ceremonial reminder of what can happen to a Monarch who attempts to interfere with Parliament."
* The Monarch delivers a speech outlining the legislative goals/agenda of the the government. The speech is written by the PM and her ministers. The Monarch reads the speech from the faux-goatskin vellum paper.
* After the Monarch's Speech, the Houses of Parliament debate the contents of the speech? I'm not totally clear on this point, so if anyone has any further information, I'd love to hear it.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:57 AM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
The #DUPMovies hashtag is trending on UK Twitter. Scrolling down (am having problems linking to them), a few of the suggestions are:
- I know where you marched last summer.
- Orange is the new orange.
- Prejudice and prejudice.
- One flute over the cuckoo's nest.
- Crocodile Drumcree.
- Lock, Stock and 2 thousand smoking boilers.
- Born on the Twelfth of July.
- How Orange was my valley.
- Dante's Renewable Heat Incentive Scheme.
- Raging Bullshit.
- Eternal Downpour of the Narrow Mind.
posted by Wordshore at 10:59 AM on June 12, 2017 [12 favorites]
- I know where you marched last summer.
- Orange is the new orange.
- Prejudice and prejudice.
- One flute over the cuckoo's nest.
- Crocodile Drumcree.
- Lock, Stock and 2 thousand smoking boilers.
- Born on the Twelfth of July.
- How Orange was my valley.
- Dante's Renewable Heat Incentive Scheme.
- Raging Bullshit.
- Eternal Downpour of the Narrow Mind.
posted by Wordshore at 10:59 AM on June 12, 2017 [12 favorites]
Theresa May met with her Conservative backbenchers and declares: “I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it”.
That's the sort of thing Stan says half-way through a Laurel and Hardy movie. With hilarious consequences.
posted by Grangousier at 11:14 AM on June 12, 2017 [9 favorites]
That's the sort of thing Stan says half-way through a Laurel and Hardy movie. With hilarious consequences.
posted by Grangousier at 11:14 AM on June 12, 2017 [9 favorites]
BBC presenter laughs in the face of a Tory MP using the 'strong and stable' line.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:19 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:19 AM on June 12, 2017 [7 favorites]
Re the Queen's Speech, I'm really looking forward to Dennis Skinner's intervention this year.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:22 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:22 AM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
> Re the Queen's Speech, I'm really looking forward to Dennis Skinner's intervention this year.
Same here.
"It tolls for thee, Tessie..."
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 11:34 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
Same here.
"It tolls for thee, Tessie..."
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 11:34 AM on June 12, 2017 [3 favorites]
BBC presenter laughs in the face of a Tory MP using the 'strong and stable' line.
Good, it's about time the media stopped letting politicians blithely sidestep any and all questions with braindead catchphrases and repetitions. Not that I think it'll last mind.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:58 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Good, it's about time the media stopped letting politicians blithely sidestep any and all questions with braindead catchphrases and repetitions. Not that I think it'll last mind.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:58 AM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
After the Monarch's Speech, the Houses of Parliament debate the contents of the speech
Yep, it contains the legislative agenda for that session of parliament, so it has to be passed in the vote. So everyone says what they think about the speech, before they vote to pass it. (Assuming they have an adequate majority to pass it, otherwise things get messy, and into uncharted waters that were only created in 2011).
posted by ambrosen at 12:01 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Yep, it contains the legislative agenda for that session of parliament, so it has to be passed in the vote. So everyone says what they think about the speech, before they vote to pass it. (Assuming they have an adequate majority to pass it, otherwise things get messy, and into uncharted waters that were only created in 2011).
posted by ambrosen at 12:01 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Which is why they can't have it without the DUP being locked down.
However, even then - there's no reason the DUP couldn't just decide not to honour an agreement. Normally, such behaviour would sully a party's reputation and lead to it not being invited into any other partnerships, but it's not as if either would particularly worry this lot. There really is no other group in Parliament you'd be less eager to rely on.
As the Fixed Term Parliament Act sets out, there's effectively only two ways for a government to go down - a majority vote of no confidence, and resignation. All the other things that used to make up 'confidence and supply' are excluded; it doesn't matter if the Queen's Speech is voted down or a budget is kicked out, the government stays in office. It's just that they can't do anything in Parliament. If they do resign, or if there is a vote of no confidence, then the opposition in the Commons can try and put together a government within 14 days - but here I haven't quite worked out what that means. Thazza buzzed off to kiss the glove ASAP after the election, but if that's all it takes to 'form a government' then perhaps even that deadline doesn't apply. Do we have a government now, given that it doesn't seem possible to start Parliament?
Another great gift from David Cameron, whose historical reputation as a far-sighted leader and defender of democracy is going to be a thing of wonder.
posted by Devonian at 12:25 PM on June 12, 2017 [15 favorites]
However, even then - there's no reason the DUP couldn't just decide not to honour an agreement. Normally, such behaviour would sully a party's reputation and lead to it not being invited into any other partnerships, but it's not as if either would particularly worry this lot. There really is no other group in Parliament you'd be less eager to rely on.
As the Fixed Term Parliament Act sets out, there's effectively only two ways for a government to go down - a majority vote of no confidence, and resignation. All the other things that used to make up 'confidence and supply' are excluded; it doesn't matter if the Queen's Speech is voted down or a budget is kicked out, the government stays in office. It's just that they can't do anything in Parliament. If they do resign, or if there is a vote of no confidence, then the opposition in the Commons can try and put together a government within 14 days - but here I haven't quite worked out what that means. Thazza buzzed off to kiss the glove ASAP after the election, but if that's all it takes to 'form a government' then perhaps even that deadline doesn't apply. Do we have a government now, given that it doesn't seem possible to start Parliament?
Another great gift from David Cameron, whose historical reputation as a far-sighted leader and defender of democracy is going to be a thing of wonder.
posted by Devonian at 12:25 PM on June 12, 2017 [15 favorites]
Parliament can just change the Fixed Term Parliament Act, can't it? Can a present Parliament bind a future one?
posted by clawsoon at 2:35 PM on June 12, 2017
posted by clawsoon at 2:35 PM on June 12, 2017
(Q1) Yes it can and (Q2) no it can't, Clawsoon. Whatever the Parliament of the day says the law is, that's the law. It's one of the reasons that Act was a complete fucking farce from start to finish.
posted by howfar at 2:41 PM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by howfar at 2:41 PM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.
posted by dng at 2:46 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:46 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
Technically not actual goat skin any more
So you're saying this goat is a scapegoat onto which they've unloaded all their real problems of trying to form a government?
posted by zachlipton at 2:47 PM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
So you're saying this goat is a scapegoat onto which they've unloaded all their real problems of trying to form a government?
posted by zachlipton at 2:47 PM on June 12, 2017 [5 favorites]
Electoral Calculus have looked at the new constituency boundaries and reckon that they would make hardly any difference to the current relative positions of the parties in the current parliament with the Tories still being short of a majority.
What is interesting is that the DUP would lose 3 (like nearly a third of their seats) and Sinn Féin would gain 2 (adding like a third)... fun times getting that confirmed in parliament under the current set up. Still it don't come in until 2018. A lot can, and probably will, change before then.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:51 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
What is interesting is that the DUP would lose 3 (like nearly a third of their seats) and Sinn Féin would gain 2 (adding like a third)... fun times getting that confirmed in parliament under the current set up. Still it don't come in until 2018. A lot can, and probably will, change before then.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:51 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
dng: Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.
You've got a long way to go before you catch up with Belgium.
posted by clawsoon at 2:53 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
You've got a long way to go before you catch up with Belgium.
posted by clawsoon at 2:53 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though
In theory Parliament is the council summoned by the monarch and she can do that even if a previous parliament voted "no more parliaments ever". The new parliament wouldn't even have to void the previous law, because a previous parliament cannot bind a later one. Now, if a monarch tried to play silly buggers with this reserve power, instead of just using it to fix a broken system, you'd probably have a revolution, deaccession, or execution (ranked from most to least likely) in short order, but the solution is there if it is ever needed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:58 PM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
In theory Parliament is the council summoned by the monarch and she can do that even if a previous parliament voted "no more parliaments ever". The new parliament wouldn't even have to void the previous law, because a previous parliament cannot bind a later one. Now, if a monarch tried to play silly buggers with this reserve power, instead of just using it to fix a broken system, you'd probably have a revolution, deaccession, or execution (ranked from most to least likely) in short order, but the solution is there if it is ever needed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:58 PM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.
Because the one thing you want while the Brexit bomb keeps ticking is parliamentary fuckery.
posted by Talez at 2:59 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
Because the one thing you want while the Brexit bomb keeps ticking is parliamentary fuckery.
posted by Talez at 2:59 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
If we just ignore it maybe it'll all go away
posted by dng at 3:03 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by dng at 3:03 PM on June 12, 2017 [2 favorites]
So regarding the vellum thing. *puts on sunglasses* Guess that'll be a... scraped goat scapegoat. YEEEAHHHH!!!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:04 PM on June 12, 2017 [12 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:04 PM on June 12, 2017 [12 favorites]
In a letter to Theresa May, deputy Labour leader Tom Watson said it had been "suggested" to him that Mr Murdoch, owner of The Times and The Sun, had lobbied the PM for Mr Gove's return to front-bench politics.
Following his departure as Justice Secretary Mr Gove returned to work at The Times as a columnist
posted by adamvasco at 3:08 PM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Following his departure as Justice Secretary Mr Gove returned to work at The Times as a columnist
posted by adamvasco at 3:08 PM on June 12, 2017 [1 favorite]
Looking forward to the forthcoming BBC drama 20 days – Battle for Supremacy (think it's on next Sunday) about the Tory leadership election after the last election... perfectly timed to remind everyone what an absolute shit Gove was.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:13 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:13 PM on June 12, 2017 [4 favorites]
You've got a long way to go before you catch up with Belgium.
And so, the UK asks Belgium to hold its beer.
posted by acb at 4:39 PM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
And so, the UK asks Belgium to hold its beer.
posted by acb at 4:39 PM on June 12, 2017 [6 favorites]
Based just on where this is being reported, I assume this is a thing that Sinn Fein always does while still abstaining, but who knows, 2017 is wild.
posted by Copronymus at 12:22 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Copronymus at 12:22 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
Minority government is a poisoned chalice, and May is going to be held accountable for every bad compromise, every lost vote, every piece of stalled legislation. In the meantime Labour has fresh talent and more constituency offices to help reposition itself for when the Tory bus overturns and a new government is needed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:52 AM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:52 AM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
In 2007, during the political chaos in Lebanon before the Doha Agreement, there was a big billboard for a clothing store in Achrafieh, which offered a "10% discount until we have a government". For years I have recounted this story as an example of how widely political experiences and expectations differ between countries, little suspecting that the Conservative and Unionist Party would be so astonishingly idiotic as to invite pure chaos into our political system during one of the most significant constitutional events in British history. Maybe we can all going to have to get used to chaos. Now where can I get that discount?
posted by howfar at 2:11 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by howfar at 2:11 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
Jewish UKIP candidate mouths ‘terrorist sympathiser’ during Corbyn victory speech
posted by Joseph Gurl at 2:32 AM on June 13, 2017
posted by Joseph Gurl at 2:32 AM on June 13, 2017
Amazing nugget buried in this Polly Toynbee piece - apparently the DUP only bother to show up in parliament for a day and half every week.
And amusing to see Labour right wing / ex-SNP Polly suddenly become a full paid-up Corbynista
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:34 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
And amusing to see Labour right wing / ex-SNP Polly suddenly become a full paid-up Corbynista
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:34 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
Yeah. It's been weird tracking the Guardian's left turn. I fear the Greeks
posted by glasseyes at 2:57 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by glasseyes at 2:57 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Guardian is a mainstream paper, albeit one with a broadly “progressive”/“liberal” mission. When Blairite neo-Thatcherism was the mainstream centre-left, they were around that, occasionally floating some wild ideas from a bit to the left of there. Now that the Overton window's shifting, they will shift with it.
posted by acb at 3:10 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:10 AM on June 13, 2017 [4 favorites]
New Labour MP Hugh Gaffney turned up to parliament in his old work clothes (as Keir Hardy did)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:15 AM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:15 AM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
Now where can I get that discount?
Assuming you're paying in Euros or dollars, it's been automatically applied by the markets. Can't promise sterling's fall will offset inflation (now at a four year high! Come see the fiscal responsibility of the right!), which is tracking my blood pressure as my media fills up with Gove and IDS.
I think the most interesting immediate developments to watch are the details of the DUP agreement, which if not announced in the next 24-48 hours will cause serious problems, and whether the scuttlebut about the softies on both sides of the House getting together will provoke an official cross-party Brexit committee.
posted by Devonian at 3:37 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
Assuming you're paying in Euros or dollars, it's been automatically applied by the markets. Can't promise sterling's fall will offset inflation (now at a four year high! Come see the fiscal responsibility of the right!), which is tracking my blood pressure as my media fills up with Gove and IDS.
I think the most interesting immediate developments to watch are the details of the DUP agreement, which if not announced in the next 24-48 hours will cause serious problems, and whether the scuttlebut about the softies on both sides of the House getting together will provoke an official cross-party Brexit committee.
posted by Devonian at 3:37 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
(ETA - looks like the Ministry for Brexit is in trouble, according to the Guardian:
"Two of Brexit department's four ministers leave week before Brexit talks start
Last night Downing Street announced a new round of ministerial appointments, along with the news that four ministers have left the government: Mike Penning, Sir Oliver Heald, Robert Halfon and David Jones.
Jones was a minister in the Brexit department. The department has also lost another minister, Lord Bridges, although No 10 has not announced this. Bridges has resigned to pursue business interests, according to a Whitehall source. A Old Etonian and a former Conservative party official, Bridges was made a peer by David Cameron.
The departure of two DExEU (Department for Exiting the European Union) officials just a week before Brexit talks begin might be regarded as less than ideal. There were only four DExEU ministers. Two of them have now left, although a new one, Lady Anelay, was appointed yesterday."
Which to me looks like there has to be a reconstruction of governance on Brexit negotiations, May has little authority, and the Ministry's in a mess. Practically speaking, there's no there there.)
posted by Devonian at 4:04 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
"Two of Brexit department's four ministers leave week before Brexit talks start
Last night Downing Street announced a new round of ministerial appointments, along with the news that four ministers have left the government: Mike Penning, Sir Oliver Heald, Robert Halfon and David Jones.
Jones was a minister in the Brexit department. The department has also lost another minister, Lord Bridges, although No 10 has not announced this. Bridges has resigned to pursue business interests, according to a Whitehall source. A Old Etonian and a former Conservative party official, Bridges was made a peer by David Cameron.
The departure of two DExEU (Department for Exiting the European Union) officials just a week before Brexit talks begin might be regarded as less than ideal. There were only four DExEU ministers. Two of them have now left, although a new one, Lady Anelay, was appointed yesterday."
Which to me looks like there has to be a reconstruction of governance on Brexit negotiations, May has little authority, and the Ministry's in a mess. Practically speaking, there's no there there.)
posted by Devonian at 4:04 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
Those ministers were holding May back, anyway. You just see how she performs once the deck chairs arecabinet is rearranged and she can work on getting the best possible deal from the iceberg.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:45 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:45 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
That should be "from the EU", sorry.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:01 AM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:01 AM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
And so, the UK asks Belgium to hold its beer.
So, yeah, about holding beer, Tories need a few lessons.
posted by ambrosen at 5:11 AM on June 13, 2017 [10 favorites]
So, yeah, about holding beer, Tories need a few lessons.
posted by ambrosen at 5:11 AM on June 13, 2017 [10 favorites]
So, yeah, about holding beer, Tories need a few lessons.
Ye gods. That's not only a photo of someone who's never held a pint, it's a photo of someone who's never held a glass without a stem. Was he weaned on chablis?
posted by rory at 5:32 AM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
Ye gods. That's not only a photo of someone who's never held a pint, it's a photo of someone who's never held a glass without a stem. Was he weaned on chablis?
posted by rory at 5:32 AM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
Man, I keep checking, May's still there. Wat a gwan, UK? Have a word with yourself.
A long time ago my sister had her second child. Five days later her two-year-old, who had been very patient up till then, said 'Mummy, the new baby's still here?'
posted by glasseyes at 5:47 AM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
A long time ago my sister had her second child. Five days later her two-year-old, who had been very patient up till then, said 'Mummy, the new baby's still here?'
posted by glasseyes at 5:47 AM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
David Davis and the cabinet greyhairs; Boris and his acolytes; Michael Gove and the hardcore Brexiters; Nicky Morgan and the soft Brexiters; Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories; Backbench social justice warriors.
A strong stable? The Tory factions Theresa May needs to appease
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:58 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
A strong stable? The Tory factions Theresa May needs to appease
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:58 AM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
Never mind drinking pints, the Tories struggle even with drinking water normally.
posted by penguin pie at 6:03 AM on June 13, 2017
posted by penguin pie at 6:03 AM on June 13, 2017
We're on this ride to hell in a hand basket because those feckless twits decided to get the country to have their internal fight for them with the EU referendum, without even bothering to come up with a plan if Leave won. I'm still totally floored by that.
posted by skybluepink at 7:07 AM on June 13, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 7:07 AM on June 13, 2017 [11 favorites]
Indeed. There's an alternate reality where David Cameron had enough gumption to realise UKIP was a thin layer of racist froth on the populace given disproportionate amounts of attention by tabloids and the BBC and had the guts to ignore them, and is still in power. Well maybe, who knows what else might have happened.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:06 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave at 8:06 AM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'm pretty sure you could travel to a different alternate reality every second for the rest of time without finding one where David Cameron had the gumption to realise anything particularly useful.
posted by dng at 8:18 AM on June 13, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by dng at 8:18 AM on June 13, 2017 [11 favorites]
There's an alternate reality where David Cameron had enough gumption to realise UKIP was a thin layer of racist froth on the populace given disproportionate amounts of attention by tabloids and the BBC and had the guts to ignore them, and is still in power. Well maybe, who knows what else might have happened.
posted by Happy Dave
Eponysterical.
posted by Dysk at 8:20 AM on June 13, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Happy Dave
Eponysterical.
posted by Dysk at 8:20 AM on June 13, 2017 [8 favorites]
Anatomy of a doomed campaign: Lessons from one marginal constituency on how not to run an election.
There is an old adage that “all politics is local politics”. In this election, the Tories ignored that almost entirely. The campaign seems to have been over-centralisation run amok, the hallmark, indeed, of Theresa May’s first government. The centre imposed views on the periphery but seemed entirely uninterested in views and information flowing the other way.
posted by rory at 8:43 AM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
There is an old adage that “all politics is local politics”. In this election, the Tories ignored that almost entirely. The campaign seems to have been over-centralisation run amok, the hallmark, indeed, of Theresa May’s first government. The centre imposed views on the periphery but seemed entirely uninterested in views and information flowing the other way.
posted by rory at 8:43 AM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
Okay, but what if the Tories were right? What if they'd have lost by more if they campaigned on local issues and tried to get out the youth vote? What were they going to tell people, "we're going ruin your personal hospital and your personal schools, right down the road"? The Tories, like the Republicans, seem to have trouble campaigning "on issues" because their actual positions are terrible and unpopular.
posted by Frowner at 9:18 AM on June 13, 2017 [20 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 9:18 AM on June 13, 2017 [20 favorites]
I'm finding it hard to believe we're coming up on the first anniversary of the Brexit referendum (23 June), and we still have no fucking idea what on earth we're going to ask for.
And you can hear the impatient tapping on the desks in Brussels from Saxa Vord.....
posted by Devonian at 9:25 AM on June 13, 2017 [8 favorites]
And you can hear the impatient tapping on the desks in Brussels from Saxa Vord.....
posted by Devonian at 9:25 AM on June 13, 2017 [8 favorites]
What gets to me, as someone currently forward-planning for September 2018 (because some of the things that need to be in place for that academic year need other things to happen in committees a year beforehand, and what goes to those committees needs to be planned now), is that a comparable "need to know" timetable in other large organisations and companies would mean that all of our Brexit deals need to be done, if they're to be implemented smoothly, before the end of this calendar year. "Two years minus a few wasted months" isn't the half of it. We have around six months left, if that.
Article 50 was never designed to be used, it was designed as a sop to Euroskeptics. Clearly, nobody paid much attention to how it would work in practice. We're not even sure if it's legally revocable. Britain may find itself trying to pull a George Costanza after March 2019, and pretending we never left. A bit like Theresa May is doing with the election that didn't just happen.
posted by rory at 9:44 AM on June 13, 2017 [10 favorites]
Article 50 was never designed to be used, it was designed as a sop to Euroskeptics. Clearly, nobody paid much attention to how it would work in practice. We're not even sure if it's legally revocable. Britain may find itself trying to pull a George Costanza after March 2019, and pretending we never left. A bit like Theresa May is doing with the election that didn't just happen.
posted by rory at 9:44 AM on June 13, 2017 [10 favorites]
Hahaha, Matt Christman on the Tories allying with the DUP:
The Tories got back in power in 2010 partly by basically jettisoning their social conservatism, and saying, "We're the new Conservative party, we're the heart, we don't care if you're gay, or anything like that. We just want to privatize the NHS. We're basically the Democrats now."posted by indubitable at 10:44 AM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
And now, all of that repressed social reactionary-ism is now coming back with them having to stitch together this coalition with the DUP, which is like the most horrifyingly savage, atavistic core of white settler colonial ideology. It's the thing that animates all of the most base and horrible reaction throughout the Western world without any kind of alloy or finish on it. It's like if Eric Rudolph's unindicted co-conspirators had formed a political party. And I only say Eric Rudolph because Timothy McVeigh was Catholic.
Macron comes to May's aid as the wind blows her papers away... can't help thinking this might be a metaphor for something
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:49 PM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:49 PM on June 13, 2017 [6 favorites]
YouGov crunching the results. Of interest:
- Age is the best predictor of Labour vs. Conservative vote (and pretty dramatically too);
- The tipping point age where people are more likely to vote Con than Lab is 47 (up from 34 at the start of the campaign!)
- Broken down by employment status, Labour is ahead among every demographic - working full-time, part-time, unemployed, full-time student - except retired people.
- Class "is no longer a very good indicator of voting intention"
(But what 'class' means is also changing, and age is becoming more and more important. Age is very much bound up with capital and increasingly so economic capital; and wealth is increasingly stored in housing, and it's the older generations who are doing better out of that. So I don't think it's 'class is unimportant' but rather 'we need to update how we think about class'.)
Youth turnout increased but not to the 72% figure bandied around on Twitter; the under-25s were still less likely to vote than any other age group. So it's not just the kids turning out for Corbyn, but people in their 30s and 40s and up moving to Labour during the campaign.
Also, nice piece by Jonn Elledge in the New Statesman on accusations of Labour bribing millennials. ("Why an overwhelmingly pro-European generation who can’t afford houses should have voted against the Conservative Party is one of life’s little mysteries, I guess.")
posted by Catseye at 2:12 PM on June 13, 2017 [30 favorites]
- Age is the best predictor of Labour vs. Conservative vote (and pretty dramatically too);
- The tipping point age where people are more likely to vote Con than Lab is 47 (up from 34 at the start of the campaign!)
- Broken down by employment status, Labour is ahead among every demographic - working full-time, part-time, unemployed, full-time student - except retired people.
- Class "is no longer a very good indicator of voting intention"
(But what 'class' means is also changing, and age is becoming more and more important. Age is very much bound up with capital and increasingly so economic capital; and wealth is increasingly stored in housing, and it's the older generations who are doing better out of that. So I don't think it's 'class is unimportant' but rather 'we need to update how we think about class'.)
Youth turnout increased but not to the 72% figure bandied around on Twitter; the under-25s were still less likely to vote than any other age group. So it's not just the kids turning out for Corbyn, but people in their 30s and 40s and up moving to Labour during the campaign.
Also, nice piece by Jonn Elledge in the New Statesman on accusations of Labour bribing millennials. ("Why an overwhelmingly pro-European generation who can’t afford houses should have voted against the Conservative Party is one of life’s little mysteries, I guess.")
posted by Catseye at 2:12 PM on June 13, 2017 [30 favorites]
Every time there's an unexpected election loss you have disgruntled candidates complaining about micromanagement from the Head Office (i.e., the party administration - whichever party or indeed country). And you know, that's often true. And (win or lose) party members complain about Head Office imposing candidates on them, rather than letting the electorate members choose one, unguided. But the other side of this is that a lot of candidates aren't much good, they say stupid things or get into fights with the local paper. And some electorates have deeply racist or homophobic party members and you don't want them choosing their own candidates even if they're going to be very successful. But obviously that's not the sort of thing Head Office can say out loud.
In this election I think it's clear that the Tories' problem lay with the perversely suicidal Parliamentary Party, and that although it's possible that different local strategies could have saved some electorates, they could just as easily have sparked controversies that would have created more bad press. Conversely, Corbyn was performing well for once, and hisenemies colleagues seemed to mysteriously lost their daggers. I don't think local candidates going off-message could have hurt Labour much, because the electorate just didn't care.
It's tough being a candidate and I bet almost all of them think they could do better with less direction, but even if that's true it's not necessarily what's best for the party. In the case of this Tory candidate the best thing he could do would be to work for a less stupid and vicious party ss a whole, and then maybe the electorate would reward them with a victory.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:59 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
In this election I think it's clear that the Tories' problem lay with the perversely suicidal Parliamentary Party, and that although it's possible that different local strategies could have saved some electorates, they could just as easily have sparked controversies that would have created more bad press. Conversely, Corbyn was performing well for once, and his
It's tough being a candidate and I bet almost all of them think they could do better with less direction, but even if that's true it's not necessarily what's best for the party. In the case of this Tory candidate the best thing he could do would be to work for a less stupid and vicious party ss a whole, and then maybe the electorate would reward them with a victory.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:59 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
Emmanuel Macron says door to remain in EU is open to Britain
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:17 PM on June 13, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:17 PM on June 13, 2017 [9 favorites]
As of this writing there's a 24-story apartment building burning out on Latimer Road in White City, Kensington and Chelsea, London.
The apartment building in question, Grenfell Tower, has been called out for months by local activist groups as dangerously unsafe. Casualties in the hundreds are expected.
. for the victims.
The Tories have control over the Kensington and Chelsea council and visited the apartment building during its recent cosmetic refurbishment. I do not know how this will play out or what effect it may have on national politics, if any.
posted by infinitewindow at 9:24 PM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
The apartment building in question, Grenfell Tower, has been called out for months by local activist groups as dangerously unsafe. Casualties in the hundreds are expected.
. for the victims.
The Tories have control over the Kensington and Chelsea council and visited the apartment building during its recent cosmetic refurbishment. I do not know how this will play out or what effect it may have on national politics, if any.
posted by infinitewindow at 9:24 PM on June 13, 2017 [5 favorites]
And there is now some suggestion that May's new chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, is responsible for delaying a review into tower block for safety.
posted by knapah at 11:20 PM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by knapah at 11:20 PM on June 13, 2017 [2 favorites]
Usually the deaths the Tories cause with their policies are slow and quiet enough that they can successfully wash their hands of them and blame the victims for their own misfortunes.
Not this time.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:35 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
Not this time.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:35 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
That fire is horrendous. An eyewitness was on R4 this morning saying that the cladding on the outside of the building had caught fire. There was no central fire alarm system & no fire suppression system & and only one exit route. Meanwhile the advice given to residents previously in case of fire was “stay in your flat & block the door with wet towels to keep the smoke out until the fire brigade put the fire out”.
Reading between the lines, I’m guessing that the safety case (if there is one) for the block assumed that since the construction was concrete & there was nothing flammable in the common areas, any fire in an individual flat would be contained to that property. But a fire that spreads to the outside of the building can travel up and create an inferno, out of reach of any external water hoses.
That building was a death trap waiting to snap shut. Sickening.
posted by pharm at 11:43 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
Reading between the lines, I’m guessing that the safety case (if there is one) for the block assumed that since the construction was concrete & there was nothing flammable in the common areas, any fire in an individual flat would be contained to that property. But a fire that spreads to the outside of the building can travel up and create an inferno, out of reach of any external water hoses.
That building was a death trap waiting to snap shut. Sickening.
posted by pharm at 11:43 PM on June 13, 2017 [3 favorites]
The 2017 election for that constituency (Kensington and Chelsea) was won by a Labour MP by 20 votes. She campaigned hard on housing issues I believe.
posted by pharm at 11:46 PM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 11:46 PM on June 13, 2017 [1 favorite]
There is an absolute fuckton of questions to answer here. Some people have been asking them for a while - this blog post from six months ago is horrifically prescient.
posted by Devonian at 11:57 PM on June 13, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 11:57 PM on June 13, 2017 [14 favorites]
My God, Devonian, that blog post is shocking and absolutely damning.
posted by hazyjane at 12:43 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by hazyjane at 12:43 AM on June 14, 2017
The 2017 election for that constituency (Kensington and Chelsea) was won by a Labour MP by 20 votes. She campaigned hard on housing issues I believe.
That's that majority up in smoke, then.
Apparently the cladding that's responsible for the rapid spread of the fire was a fairly recent addition to the building.
This whole fire was, if not completely preventable, then certainly much worse than it needed to be.
posted by Dysk at 12:47 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
That's that majority up in smoke, then.
Apparently the cladding that's responsible for the rapid spread of the fire was a fairly recent addition to the building.
This whole fire was, if not completely preventable, then certainly much worse than it needed to be.
posted by Dysk at 12:47 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
It was previously a strong Tory seat Dysk: 8,000 majority.
posted by pharm at 1:01 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by pharm at 1:01 AM on June 14, 2017
And yes, it does look like the new insulating cladding was responsible for the terrible spread of this fire. Grim.
posted by pharm at 1:02 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by pharm at 1:02 AM on June 14, 2017
It was previously a strong Tory seat Dysk: 8,000 majority.
I am aware, yes. But it wasn't at the most recent election, where Labour won it by 20 seats. I imagine that the residents of the tower block were hardly the ultra-rich traditional Tory voters of Kensington we've heard so much about in national media the last few days. I also imagine there was more than 20 of them.
posted by Dysk at 1:14 AM on June 14, 2017
I am aware, yes. But it wasn't at the most recent election, where Labour won it by 20 seats. I imagine that the residents of the tower block were hardly the ultra-rich traditional Tory voters of Kensington we've heard so much about in national media the last few days. I also imagine there was more than 20 of them.
posted by Dysk at 1:14 AM on June 14, 2017
Um. Why would her majority be up in smoke then? The MP has literally just taken her seat: there’s no way anyone is going to hold her responsible.
(When I hear that something has 'gone up in smoke' I would take that to mean that it has been wasted or destroyed. Does it mean something different to you?)
posted by pharm at 1:23 AM on June 14, 2017
(When I hear that something has 'gone up in smoke' I would take that to mean that it has been wasted or destroyed. Does it mean something different to you?)
posted by pharm at 1:23 AM on June 14, 2017
The Labour voting majority in the district? As in, take the 20-vote win, subtract the votes from those in addresses in the tower block, and it's a blue seat.
posted by Dysk at 1:27 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 1:27 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
('That majority' was a direct reference to the quoted election results in the constituency, after all. Majority can refer to things other than May's current parliamentary position.)
posted by Dysk at 1:29 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by Dysk at 1:29 AM on June 14, 2017
The Today programme on Radio 4 this morning had the first case I've heard in the wild of a Leave spokesperson claiming that 80% of Britons voted for Leave-supporting parties, as if the general election was a re-run of the referendum, rather than a campaign fought almost entirely on anything other than Brexit.
This is where I part company with the diehard Corbynistas. Maybe he figured he was playing some n-dimensional chess by whipping the PLP into voting for Article 50 and backing Brexit in the manifesto, so that Labour could lure back some of those sweet, sweet Kippers, but he's enabled the Leavers to claim that the whole country is behind them and their rock-hard fantasies. They're going to use this bullshit talking point to drive us even closer to the edge of the cliff, until their big red bus is hanging over the edge of it with the rest of us scrambling like Vin Diesel in Furious 7 to get back onto solid ground. Remain versus Leave: the Lost and the Spurious.
posted by rory at 1:31 AM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
This is where I part company with the diehard Corbynistas. Maybe he figured he was playing some n-dimensional chess by whipping the PLP into voting for Article 50 and backing Brexit in the manifesto, so that Labour could lure back some of those sweet, sweet Kippers, but he's enabled the Leavers to claim that the whole country is behind them and their rock-hard fantasies. They're going to use this bullshit talking point to drive us even closer to the edge of the cliff, until their big red bus is hanging over the edge of it with the rest of us scrambling like Vin Diesel in Furious 7 to get back onto solid ground. Remain versus Leave: the Lost and the Spurious.
posted by rory at 1:31 AM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
(In fact, 'majority' CAN'T describe May's current parliamentary position!)
posted by Dysk at 1:32 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 1:32 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
Well that’s a more morbid interpretation than I was expecting.
posted by pharm at 1:34 AM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by pharm at 1:34 AM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
Maybe we can retire this back and forth a bit early (because stuff is getting flagged as well): all the people who are residents of the tower will have to move elsewhere, possibly not in the same voting district (sorry if wrong terminology!). Since the win margin was so slim, it could affect future voting results.
posted by taz at 1:36 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by taz at 1:36 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
The Irish President has made a statement. WHERE ARE THE UK POLITICIANS?
posted by Yowser at 1:37 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 1:37 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
Christ almighty. This probably deserves its own thread--it has implications for politics and elections, sure, but it's its own horrible thing.
posted by rory at 1:40 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 1:40 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
This probably deserves its own thread--it has implications for politics and elections, sure, but it's its own horrible thing.
Yeah, this being the elections thread, I didn't think it particularly morbid to comment on how it affects the election.
posted by Dysk at 1:42 AM on June 14, 2017
Yeah, this being the elections thread, I didn't think it particularly morbid to comment on how it affects the election.
posted by Dysk at 1:42 AM on June 14, 2017
Talking about fire deaths as a political majority going up in smoke does sound pretty awful. I know all of us are finding this whole thing thing upsetting, but I'm sure I'm not the only one who really winced at that particular figure of speech.
posted by Catseye at 1:48 AM on June 14, 2017 [17 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 1:48 AM on June 14, 2017 [17 favorites]
Diane Abbott reveals illness and hits out at 'vicious' Tory campaign. She was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes two years ago.
“During the election campaign, everything went crazy – and the diabetes was out of control, the blood sugar was out of control,” she told the Guardian, saying that she was badly affected after facing six or seven interviews in a row without eating enough food. She said her brother had watched and listened to interviews, including when she stumbled over figures on a key policy on police funding when being grilled by LBC’s Nick Ferrari, and got in touch with her. “He said ‘that is not Diane’, because ever since I’ve been a child I’ve had a great memory for figures, and he said he knew it was my blood sugar and gave me a lecture about eating and having glucose tablets."
A perfect explanation for that infamous LBC interview, but her critics will no doubt brush it aside as an excuse.
posted by rory at 1:56 AM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
“During the election campaign, everything went crazy – and the diabetes was out of control, the blood sugar was out of control,” she told the Guardian, saying that she was badly affected after facing six or seven interviews in a row without eating enough food. She said her brother had watched and listened to interviews, including when she stumbled over figures on a key policy on police funding when being grilled by LBC’s Nick Ferrari, and got in touch with her. “He said ‘that is not Diane’, because ever since I’ve been a child I’ve had a great memory for figures, and he said he knew it was my blood sugar and gave me a lecture about eating and having glucose tablets."
A perfect explanation for that infamous LBC interview, but her critics will no doubt brush it aside as an excuse.
posted by rory at 1:56 AM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
This is a good article on the Labour grassroots campaigning pre-election. I love that they were constantly overwhelmed by unexpectedly large numbers of young people volunteering.
“I heard about people being overwhelmed in a few seats, after we sent out text messages directing volunteers,” says Beth Foster-Ogg, 20, Momentum’s membership organiser. “I got a call from Cambridge, from a local organiser saying: ‘You’ve sent me too many people! We’ve sent out all the boards and there’s still loads of people flooding in, we don’t know what to do.’ It happened in Leeds North West, too – they started the day, they had so many activists that they went: ‘Right, let’s scrap our whole strategy, we’re going to just print off the electoral register instead’ – and rather than focusing on likely Labour voters, which is what you would normally do, they knocked on all the doors on the electoral register – that’s unheard of.” The seat saw a 14% swing to Labour, overturning a Lib Dem majority of almost 3,000 and replacing it with a 4,000 Labour lead.posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:01 AM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
On Diane Abbott: Honestly I wish she’d been up front about it at the time. If she’d just come out and said “I have Type II diabetes & had blood sugar issues after seven interviews in a row” there might have been a bit less WTF about the whole thing. Instead she left everyone with the impression that she was wildly incompetent & that reflected badly on the rest of the Labour leadership. I honestly think she directly cost Labour seats in the GE.
posted by pharm at 2:04 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:04 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah, I can only imagine how dreadful an experience the campaign was for Diane Abbott. She was subjected to the most appalling racist and misogynistic abuse throughout, and given her medical condition, her blood sugar tanking isn't surprising. Campaigning is exhausting enough; layer on the nonstop attacks, and there you go.
posted by skybluepink at 2:05 AM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 2:05 AM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
On Diane Abbott: Honestly I wish she’d been up front about it at the time. If she’d just come out and said “I have Type II diabetes & had blood sugar issues after seven interviews in a row” there might have been a bit less WTF about the whole thing.
That would itself have become an angle of attack, though - 'you have type II diabetes and you can't even manage it for a few TV interviews, how are you supposed to do your job as MP?' etc, etc. I don't think there's anything Abbot could have done to not end up a a locus of Tory attacks on her competence and ability to do the job. She won with a resounding majority, so clearly her constituents don't have the same reservations.
posted by Dysk at 2:10 AM on June 14, 2017 [10 favorites]
That would itself have become an angle of attack, though - 'you have type II diabetes and you can't even manage it for a few TV interviews, how are you supposed to do your job as MP?' etc, etc. I don't think there's anything Abbot could have done to not end up a a locus of Tory attacks on her competence and ability to do the job. She won with a resounding majority, so clearly her constituents don't have the same reservations.
posted by Dysk at 2:10 AM on June 14, 2017 [10 favorites]
I think Abbott being upfront about the diabetes wouldn't have done anything. Besides what Dysk said, it would almost certainly have ramped up the stream of fat-shaming abuse (besides the racism and misogyny).
posted by ocular shenanigans at 2:14 AM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by ocular shenanigans at 2:14 AM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
Dysk: That would have been a better outcome that what actually happened though, because what actually happened was that the entirety of the UK thought that a) she sounded completely incompetent to be Home Secretary after performing badly in something like three separate interviews and b) if that was the case why on earth did Corbyn appoint her? Having Type II diabetes would at least have been an excuse that came with a free 'oh, and here’s why this won’t happen again' card.
posted by pharm at 2:15 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:15 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
The misogynist fat shaming deplorables wouldn’t have cared either way. Honestly, I was wondering whether she’d had a stroke or something & I can’t have been the only one.
posted by pharm at 2:19 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by pharm at 2:19 AM on June 14, 2017
Having Type II diabetes would at least have been an excuse that came with a free 'oh, and here’s why this won’t happen again' card.
Would it? She was diagnosed with the condition 2 years ago - if she hasn't learned to manage it by now, how can we expect her to in the next few weeks (etc, etc, etc). And what ocular shenanigans said.
If people weren't willing to cut her some slack for having an off day or two, they weren't going to be willing to cut her some slack for having an off day or two because of not properly managing her blood sugar/condition. It'd just provide ANOTHER vector of attack.
posted by Dysk at 2:20 AM on June 14, 2017
Would it? She was diagnosed with the condition 2 years ago - if she hasn't learned to manage it by now, how can we expect her to in the next few weeks (etc, etc, etc). And what ocular shenanigans said.
If people weren't willing to cut her some slack for having an off day or two, they weren't going to be willing to cut her some slack for having an off day or two because of not properly managing her blood sugar/condition. It'd just provide ANOTHER vector of attack.
posted by Dysk at 2:20 AM on June 14, 2017
I've put up a separate FPP about the fire.
posted by Catseye at 2:21 AM on June 14, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 2:21 AM on June 14, 2017 [8 favorites]
Yeah, I neglected to mention the fat-shaming to which people with Type II diabetes are frequently subjected. There are "obesity/diabetes are killing the NHS" stories in the press all the time.
posted by skybluepink at 2:22 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 2:22 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
Dysk: Sure. I agree, people would have used that to attack her. I’m saying that outcome is *better* than the alternative that we got, in which she looked like a total incompetent who was so unaware of it that she was turning up to interviews and making figures up on the spot.
posted by pharm at 2:29 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by pharm at 2:29 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
Looks like the goatskin excuse is out - apparently the DUP deal and Queen's Speech are delayed because of the fire now.
posted by Dysk at 3:22 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 3:22 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
I fervently wish that the media would stop the ridiculous gotcha games over manifesto figures - it's so clearly set up to catch politicians out and it proves sod-all about the policies themselves.
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:31 AM on June 14, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:31 AM on June 14, 2017 [7 favorites]
She won with a resounding majority, so clearly her constituents don't have the same reservations.
Hackney North and Stoke Newington. 18th safest Labour seat in the country. Expecting another result would be like expecting Surrey to turn red.
A perfect explanation for that infamous LBC interview, but her critics will no doubt brush it aside as an excuse.
I wonder if caused her headache when she failed to vote on A50, too.
posted by Leon at 6:39 AM on June 14, 2017
Hackney North and Stoke Newington. 18th safest Labour seat in the country. Expecting another result would be like expecting Surrey to turn red.
A perfect explanation for that infamous LBC interview, but her critics will no doubt brush it aside as an excuse.
I wonder if caused her headache when she failed to vote on A50, too.
posted by Leon at 6:39 AM on June 14, 2017
I wonder if caused her headache when she failed to vote on A50, too.
No, I imagine that would be good sense and principle.
posted by Dysk at 8:27 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
No, I imagine that would be good sense and principle.
posted by Dysk at 8:27 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
I wonder if caused her headache when she failed to vote on A50, too.
Its entirely possible. If you are vulnerable to migraines you can be a lot more vulnerable to them if there are other stresses on your body. But it could have been other things, she has a stressful job, she is getting older which can lead to increased frequency. But I think the subtext is that you are sneering and have no real understanding of how debilitating a migraine can be.
posted by biffa at 9:17 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Its entirely possible. If you are vulnerable to migraines you can be a lot more vulnerable to them if there are other stresses on your body. But it could have been other things, she has a stressful job, she is getting older which can lead to increased frequency. But I think the subtext is that you are sneering and have no real understanding of how debilitating a migraine can be.
posted by biffa at 9:17 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Hell, even if she felt on top of the world that day, that a50 whip was a bad move and she was sensible to fuck the whole thing off.
posted by threetwentytwo at 9:48 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by threetwentytwo at 9:48 AM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah, there is no doubt in my mind that the 'headache' was a deliberate excuse, intended to be read as obvious but plausibly deniable. She couldn't, as a member of the shadow cabinet, be seen to be defying a three-line whip on so crucial an issue, and as a person of conscience, she certainly couldn't vote for a50, so a tactical bluff leaves sort-of saved faces all round.
posted by Dysk at 9:53 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 9:53 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Tim Farron has resigned as Lib Dem leader, confirmed by BBC.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:40 AM on June 14, 2017
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:40 AM on June 14, 2017
Is there a Greek word for the form of government you get when everyone, in succession, just puts their hands up and goes 'Nah, fuck it, I'm out, this is too much hassle.'
Defaultocracy?
posted by Happy Dave at 10:50 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Defaultocracy?
posted by Happy Dave at 10:50 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Tim Farron has resigned as Lib Dem leader
BBC: 'Mr Farron said he had been "proud" to lead the party for two years but said he could no longer reconcile his strong Christian faith with his responsibilities as leader of the party.'
One rather gets the impression that he should have thought harder about the implications of standing for leadership of a party that has the word 'Liberal' as the first part of its name.
posted by Major Clanger at 11:05 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
BBC: 'Mr Farron said he had been "proud" to lead the party for two years but said he could no longer reconcile his strong Christian faith with his responsibilities as leader of the party.'
One rather gets the impression that he should have thought harder about the implications of standing for leadership of a party that has the word 'Liberal' as the first part of its name.
posted by Major Clanger at 11:05 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
I caught a bit of Farron's resignation speech and instead of the failure of his election campaign - they really should have taken more seats off the tories - it was all about him being a Christian and in being incompatible with being a Liberal leader. Which, you know, he might have worked out before. He sounded a bit crazy tbh,
Edit - What Major Clanger said.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:06 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Edit - What Major Clanger said.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:06 AM on June 14, 2017 [3 favorites]
Ah well. Never mind, Tim, there's always the DUP.
posted by Devonian at 11:34 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 11:34 AM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
That is... weird.
Between him and the lingering coalition I guess it's no surprise they didn't pick up seats.
posted by Artw at 11:36 AM on June 14, 2017
Between him and the lingering coalition I guess it's no surprise they didn't pick up seats.
posted by Artw at 11:36 AM on June 14, 2017
So frustrating that he presents it all as though his way of being a Christian is the only way of being a Christian - the default value... as though the default happens to be anti-LGBT and all the rest. Ugh, what a failure of a man, failure of a politician and failure of a Christian.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:46 AM on June 14, 2017 [14 favorites]
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:46 AM on June 14, 2017 [14 favorites]
No, I imagine that would be good sense and principle.
Cutting a deal to avoid the vote so you can keep your front-bench role is certainly good sense. The Labour MPs who voted against A50 were principled. The ones who abstained... not so much.
and as a person of conscience, she certainly couldn't vote for a50
Except she did, on the third reading.
posted by Leon at 12:06 PM on June 14, 2017
Cutting a deal to avoid the vote so you can keep your front-bench role is certainly good sense. The Labour MPs who voted against A50 were principled. The ones who abstained... not so much.
and as a person of conscience, she certainly couldn't vote for a50
Except she did, on the third reading.
posted by Leon at 12:06 PM on June 14, 2017
I'm aware. I'm intentionally damning as much as praising.
posted by Dysk at 12:09 PM on June 14, 2017
posted by Dysk at 12:09 PM on June 14, 2017
Then we're probably not that far apart. Everything I hear suggests she's a fantastic MP for her constituents.
posted by Leon at 12:13 PM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Leon at 12:13 PM on June 14, 2017 [2 favorites]
I'll take issue with the characterisation of Tim Farron's resignation above. You can read his entire statement here, but I don't think he's saying that he thinks his Christianity is incompatible with his Liberalism, rather that the focus on his private beliefs is incompatible with him leading the party.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:47 PM on June 14, 2017 [11 favorites]
There are Christians in politics who take the view that they should impose the tenets of faith on society, but I have not taken that approach because I disagree with it – it’s not liberal and it is counterproductive when it comes to advancing the gospel.I'm fine with religious people like Tim. He's got his own private religious faith and beliefs, but knows he has as much right to impose them on anyone else as anyone else has to impose theirs on him (i.e. none). As far as I can see, it's pretty core to Liberalism - supporting the rights of people to do things you don't personally agree with. A lot of people just can't seem to get their head around the idea that his Liberal beliefs take priority over his religious ones when it comes to how other people live their lives.
Even so, I seem to be the subject of suspicion because of what I believe and who my faith is in. In which case we are kidding ourselves if we think we yet live in a tolerant, liberal society.
That’s why I have chosen to step down as leader of the Liberal Democrats. I intend to serve until the parliamentary recess begins next month, at which point there will be a leadership election according to the party’s rules.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:47 PM on June 14, 2017 [11 favorites]
I'm fine with religious people like Tim. He's got his own private religious faith and beliefs, but knows he has as much right to impose them on anyone else as anyone else has to impose theirs on him (i.e. none).
Yes, it sounds as if people were making his religious beliefs A Thing and he was tiref of it. There's definitely an argument that politicians' beliefs should be part of the public debate, particularly when they're beliefs about things like gay marriage, but historically that argument has mostly been used to attack Jews and Catholics standing for public office.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:18 PM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yes, it sounds as if people were making his religious beliefs A Thing and he was tiref of it. There's definitely an argument that politicians' beliefs should be part of the public debate, particularly when they're beliefs about things like gay marriage, but historically that argument has mostly been used to attack Jews and Catholics standing for public office.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:18 PM on June 14, 2017 [5 favorites]
The problem with the whole idea of keeping religious beliefs private and not imposing them on other people is that most of us apply it pretty selectively. I'm horrified when people try to impose their homophobic or misogynistic religious beliefs on me, but I'm fine when people legislate on the basis of religious beliefs about abolishing capital punishment or redistributing wealth. Religion is a bit of a red herring, I think. The problem is the actual content of the beliefs.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:01 PM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:01 PM on June 14, 2017 [6 favorites]
I'd rather no one use their religion as reasoning or support for political actions. If you want to argue against capital punishment, fine, tell me why, how that benefits society, the harms it causes, and so forth. Don't point to Jesus or Allah or Vishnu.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:18 PM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:18 PM on June 14, 2017 [1 favorite]
the whole idea of keeping religious beliefs private and not imposing them on other people is that most of us apply it pretty selectively. I'm horrified when people try to impose their homophobic or misogynistic religious beliefs on me, but I'm fine when people legislate on the basis of religious beliefs about abolishing capital punishment or redistributing wealth.
The difference is that political liberalism gives us a standard for making policy choices / legislation -- respect for the rights of individuals -- that doesn't directly depend on religious premises about what it means to be a virtuous person. (Of course, human rights depend in a deeper sense on some quasi-metaphysical premises about the value of persons as such, but that's a different issue).
If you come to the public square, and tell me I must be coerced by the state to give up 60% of my income because this will make me a more virtuous, generous person -- the kind of person who, in the Christian or Muslim or Hindu or Jewish world view, is right with God / following the path of dharma -- I'm going to be unimpressed. Even though, as a personal religious belief, I might believe that giving up 60% of my wealth would make me a better person. Liberalism 101: it's not the state's job to apply coercion to make me virtuous. On the other hand, if you tell me that the state is entitled to coerce me to give up 60% of my wealth because it is necessary for other people to have healthcare and education, and healthcare and education are fundamental rights, I am going to be much more amenable to that argument. The same is true for capital punishment and legislating sexual behaviour. There is really no argument for legislating sexual behaviour between consenting adults, other than some kind of argument based on virtue ethics, and I don't want to see arguments based on virtue ethics made in the public square to justify coercion.
This is why I think it's pretty unfortunate that the press kept pushing Tim Fallon on whether he thinks gay sex is a sin. "Sin" is a pure virtue ethics category, and I don't want to see it in politics. Are we now going to corner all Muslim MPS who wear the hijab and ask them whether they think failure to cover the head is immodest in a woman? I don't care by what standards politicians choose to cultivate their own personalities, and what theory of the good life they employ in deciding whether to cover their heads or have gay sex or marry or not marry or obey their husbands or avoid beef -- as long as they keep all that stuff away from others, and respect their right to live their lives differently. I think it muddies political discourse in an unfortunate way to bring these questions into an argument about political leadership. It's right to have gone after Tim Fallon on his voting record--in particular, his votes on the Equality Act and his abstention on same-sex marriage--but it's a mistake to have made it about his beliefs about sin rather than his beliefs about rights.
posted by Aravis76 at 7:31 PM on June 14, 2017 [9 favorites]
The difference is that political liberalism gives us a standard for making policy choices / legislation -- respect for the rights of individuals -- that doesn't directly depend on religious premises about what it means to be a virtuous person. (Of course, human rights depend in a deeper sense on some quasi-metaphysical premises about the value of persons as such, but that's a different issue).
If you come to the public square, and tell me I must be coerced by the state to give up 60% of my income because this will make me a more virtuous, generous person -- the kind of person who, in the Christian or Muslim or Hindu or Jewish world view, is right with God / following the path of dharma -- I'm going to be unimpressed. Even though, as a personal religious belief, I might believe that giving up 60% of my wealth would make me a better person. Liberalism 101: it's not the state's job to apply coercion to make me virtuous. On the other hand, if you tell me that the state is entitled to coerce me to give up 60% of my wealth because it is necessary for other people to have healthcare and education, and healthcare and education are fundamental rights, I am going to be much more amenable to that argument. The same is true for capital punishment and legislating sexual behaviour. There is really no argument for legislating sexual behaviour between consenting adults, other than some kind of argument based on virtue ethics, and I don't want to see arguments based on virtue ethics made in the public square to justify coercion.
This is why I think it's pretty unfortunate that the press kept pushing Tim Fallon on whether he thinks gay sex is a sin. "Sin" is a pure virtue ethics category, and I don't want to see it in politics. Are we now going to corner all Muslim MPS who wear the hijab and ask them whether they think failure to cover the head is immodest in a woman? I don't care by what standards politicians choose to cultivate their own personalities, and what theory of the good life they employ in deciding whether to cover their heads or have gay sex or marry or not marry or obey their husbands or avoid beef -- as long as they keep all that stuff away from others, and respect their right to live their lives differently. I think it muddies political discourse in an unfortunate way to bring these questions into an argument about political leadership. It's right to have gone after Tim Fallon on his voting record--in particular, his votes on the Equality Act and his abstention on same-sex marriage--but it's a mistake to have made it about his beliefs about sin rather than his beliefs about rights.
posted by Aravis76 at 7:31 PM on June 14, 2017 [9 favorites]
Don't know whether MattWPBS' comment was directed at mine or not, but it did make me think about what I had written anyway... My frustration comes as someone who is extricating himself from Christianity and getting into politics, and politics is starting to inform what faith I have left as I start to see issues differently, in the light of other people and communities - their beliefs and needs.
I think he's a failure as politician because, really, he resigns over this? Not his party's lacklustre, negative election campaign and inability to connect where it matters.
I think he's a failure as Christian (though maybe I shouldn't judge...) because in his statement he firstly mischaracterises other Christians in politics, I'm sure some of them would love to impose their beliefs, a lot don't and would stand on the LGBT friendly side of the aisle and support equality in marriage, not call it a sin. Their theological position is no doubt arrived at in good faith - yet for Tim Farron you either get out or you want to impose.
My other concern is his particular brand of Christianity - it is one I recognise and have personally rejected. It's one that my experience has shown, likes to use other activities as cover for "advancing the gospel" - making more Christians of a similar type. (And it doesn't like homosexuality either and will justify all sorts in that belief.) Those activities do often do good... but don't doubt there is an ulterior motive.
Why should a politician be talking about advancing the gospel? - that's not what he's there for and betrays, to my mind at least, something of a conflict of interests when you're in a party that is not a specificially Christian "advance the gospel" party.
If he was a Christian with these beliefs when he became a politician, why is it only a problem now when the spotlight is on him about the abhorrence of his beliefs? - and he's part of a wing of the church that is quite happy to call homosexuality a sin and will make accusations and decisions based on that belief.
Finally (he he), faith doesn't have to be set in stone - rather than clinging to his beliefs about homosexuality, why not see that other Christians have looked at the issue in as much depth as we presume he has done, and come to different conclusions? In a stroke he writes off a whole chunk of Christianity because it's not what he believes - and by implication, having seen his rhetorical gambit in use in the church, those who don't agree with him are, at best, not very good Christians.
But anyway, he has the public platform to make his statements. The rest of us just get to waffle on MeFi.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:04 PM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
I think he's a failure as politician because, really, he resigns over this? Not his party's lacklustre, negative election campaign and inability to connect where it matters.
I think he's a failure as Christian (though maybe I shouldn't judge...) because in his statement he firstly mischaracterises other Christians in politics, I'm sure some of them would love to impose their beliefs, a lot don't and would stand on the LGBT friendly side of the aisle and support equality in marriage, not call it a sin. Their theological position is no doubt arrived at in good faith - yet for Tim Farron you either get out or you want to impose.
My other concern is his particular brand of Christianity - it is one I recognise and have personally rejected. It's one that my experience has shown, likes to use other activities as cover for "advancing the gospel" - making more Christians of a similar type. (And it doesn't like homosexuality either and will justify all sorts in that belief.) Those activities do often do good... but don't doubt there is an ulterior motive.
Why should a politician be talking about advancing the gospel? - that's not what he's there for and betrays, to my mind at least, something of a conflict of interests when you're in a party that is not a specificially Christian "advance the gospel" party.
If he was a Christian with these beliefs when he became a politician, why is it only a problem now when the spotlight is on him about the abhorrence of his beliefs? - and he's part of a wing of the church that is quite happy to call homosexuality a sin and will make accusations and decisions based on that belief.
Finally (he he), faith doesn't have to be set in stone - rather than clinging to his beliefs about homosexuality, why not see that other Christians have looked at the issue in as much depth as we presume he has done, and come to different conclusions? In a stroke he writes off a whole chunk of Christianity because it's not what he believes - and by implication, having seen his rhetorical gambit in use in the church, those who don't agree with him are, at best, not very good Christians.
But anyway, he has the public platform to make his statements. The rest of us just get to waffle on MeFi.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:04 PM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
From Tim's statement I guess this is the bit I take most issue with:
"A better, wiser person than me may have been able to deal with this more successfully, to have remained faithful to Christ while leading a political party in the current environment.
To be a political leader – especially of a progressive, liberal party in 2017 – and to live as a committed Christian, to hold faithfully to the Bible’s teaching, has felt impossible for me."
He equates being faithful to Christ with how he does Christianity, being committed is according to his standards. He believes he should hold faithfully to the Bible - but whose interpretation? His. He blames "the current environment" - true, let's go back 150 years or so, no-one would have any problem with his beliefs. But that's not the world we live in, thankfully.
I'm OK with the media pushing him on the "sin" side of things because that is the vocabulary and understanding that comes with his brand of Christianity and he's the one who brought it into things by deciding to be open about his Christianity (which is fine, but he could have just "shone his light" and let his actions speak for themselves). So, maybe he should have owned his beliefs. If, as his record suggests, he is against equality in marriage, own the fact that in the end it's because he believes that his religion teaches it is sinful. Either that or admit the prejudice was there all along and the belief is just a fig leaf.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:52 PM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
"A better, wiser person than me may have been able to deal with this more successfully, to have remained faithful to Christ while leading a political party in the current environment.
To be a political leader – especially of a progressive, liberal party in 2017 – and to live as a committed Christian, to hold faithfully to the Bible’s teaching, has felt impossible for me."
He equates being faithful to Christ with how he does Christianity, being committed is according to his standards. He believes he should hold faithfully to the Bible - but whose interpretation? His. He blames "the current environment" - true, let's go back 150 years or so, no-one would have any problem with his beliefs. But that's not the world we live in, thankfully.
I'm OK with the media pushing him on the "sin" side of things because that is the vocabulary and understanding that comes with his brand of Christianity and he's the one who brought it into things by deciding to be open about his Christianity (which is fine, but he could have just "shone his light" and let his actions speak for themselves). So, maybe he should have owned his beliefs. If, as his record suggests, he is against equality in marriage, own the fact that in the end it's because he believes that his religion teaches it is sinful. Either that or admit the prejudice was there all along and the belief is just a fig leaf.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 11:52 PM on June 14, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm not going to get into the right or wrong of Tim Farron's position but it's factually incorrect to suggest that his record is against equal marriage - he voted in favour of it on all but one occasion and abstained once.
posted by crocomancer at 1:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by crocomancer at 1:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
No more roaming charges in the EU as from today. Thanks ObamaTheresa!
posted by PenDevil at 1:24 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by PenDevil at 1:24 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Tim Farron, friend of us queers because he oh-so-graciously voted for a few basic rights for us sinful monsters (while implying we're sinful monsters). A terrible ally to queer people, and a terrible Christian.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
posted by Dysk at 1:33 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
posted by Dysk at 1:33 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Not looking for an argument, but how does voting "no" for the Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations show that he's for equal marriage?
And on preview, Dysk said it better.
"By their fruit you'll know them."
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 1:36 AM on June 15, 2017
And on preview, Dysk said it better.
"By their fruit you'll know them."
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 1:36 AM on June 15, 2017
I'm not going to get into the right or wrong of Tim Farron's position but it's factually incorrect to suggest that his record is against equal marriage - he voted in favour of it on all but one occasion and abstained once.
And the abstention was because he had problems with the Spousal Veto.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:40 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
And the abstention was because he had problems with the Spousal Veto.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:40 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Thanks MattWPBS for that Spousal Veto link. Maybe he's done better than I thought. I still don't like how he's presented his reasons for standing down because of how, to me, it equates his particular beliefs with all Christian belief... but that there are LGBT folk standing by him is at least interesting and worth considering.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 1:54 AM on June 15, 2017
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 1:54 AM on June 15, 2017
"By their fruit you'll know them."
Aye. Here's his position from the leadership campaign.
The simple position is that religious people are against people who sin in any way, who try to impose their beliefs on others, and there are people who are like that (the DUP spring to mind). It would be really simple if that was the case, but life's not like that. Farron's someone who has moral beliefs that people are sinners (in terms of gay sex and probably other things like sex before marriage, divorce, masturbation, abortion, etc), but he's someone who above all believes that everyone should have the right to make their own choices on all of these things.
I'd rather someone who doesn't think that people should do things but will fight for them to be able to do them, rather than someone who has no opinion either way but won't fight for their rights.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:58 AM on June 15, 2017 [11 favorites]
Aye. Here's his position from the leadership campaign.
As part of my campaign to be the next leader of the Lib Dems today I am making three pledges on LGBT+ rights.This is the problem, the fruit isn't "a few basic rights".
One, when it comes to the equal marriage legislation, I think we really missed a trick on trans issues. On the spousal veto, I think it’s an appalling thing that one person is allowed to block another person’s freedom. We should be making that a priority.
Secondly, it strikes me as deeply troubling is that there was no regulation of psychotherapists in the UK for quack conversion therapy.
Thirdly, we’ve got to end the gay blood ban, which is a disgrace. My pledge to you is that my first opposition day bill should I be elected leader will be getting rid of the gay blood ban. All of these things need to be based on the science, not on prejudice.
The simple position is that religious people are against people who sin in any way, who try to impose their beliefs on others, and there are people who are like that (the DUP spring to mind). It would be really simple if that was the case, but life's not like that. Farron's someone who has moral beliefs that people are sinners (in terms of gay sex and probably other things like sex before marriage, divorce, masturbation, abortion, etc), but he's someone who above all believes that everyone should have the right to make their own choices on all of these things.
I'd rather someone who doesn't think that people should do things but will fight for them to be able to do them, rather than someone who has no opinion either way but won't fight for their rights.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:58 AM on June 15, 2017 [11 favorites]
I still don't like how he's presented his reasons for standing down because of how, to me, it equates his particular beliefs with all Christian belief
Again, I'll just say that I don't think he has resigned because of his beliefs, but because of the way that his beliefs are focussed on as leader of the party, rather than his actions.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:05 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Again, I'll just say that I don't think he has resigned because of his beliefs, but because of the way that his beliefs are focussed on as leader of the party, rather than his actions.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:05 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
MattWPBS, I agree, it's not simple, and I probably overstated my case. I very much like how you put "I'd rather someone who doesn't think that people should do things but will fight for them to be able to do them, rather than someone who has no opinion either way but won't fight for their rights."
I guess, because of my own background, baggage and the like, I'm still struggling with the presentation of his resignation, how it feels to me that he puts himself above other Christians by presenting himself as being faithful to Christ and the Bible by taking the stand he's taking, and suggesting that others just want to impose their beliefs. It just feels unfair and like a parting pot-shot "I'm doing it better than you".
On preview, maybe he's right to stand down because of the focus on his beliefs - maybe that's wise as his beliefs will get in the way going forward, but they are his beliefs and my understanding is that at some point your beliefs will always inform your actions. It appears that somehow, his beliefs conflict with his actions and his stated objectives - which in the end has got to be a pretty uncomfortable place to be.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 2:11 AM on June 15, 2017
I guess, because of my own background, baggage and the like, I'm still struggling with the presentation of his resignation, how it feels to me that he puts himself above other Christians by presenting himself as being faithful to Christ and the Bible by taking the stand he's taking, and suggesting that others just want to impose their beliefs. It just feels unfair and like a parting pot-shot "I'm doing it better than you".
On preview, maybe he's right to stand down because of the focus on his beliefs - maybe that's wise as his beliefs will get in the way going forward, but they are his beliefs and my understanding is that at some point your beliefs will always inform your actions. It appears that somehow, his beliefs conflict with his actions and his stated objectives - which in the end has got to be a pretty uncomfortable place to be.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 2:11 AM on June 15, 2017
All of the things Farron campaigned for on marriage equality are nice, but there's also an omission, notable especially for someone concerned with religious coercion. The Church of England is specifically forbidden by the law from conducting gay marriages. No other religious organisation has a position forced on them, nevermind by parliament. As a liberal (and a Liberal) this should be if some concern. But no. Completely unaddressed. Apparently a-OK.
That isn't equality. That isn't freedom. That isn't even showing the church if England the basic respect of being able to determine its own position of the issue. It's parliamentary mandating of a religious position. And it is sure as fuck not how you achieve equality or normalise something.
posted by Dysk at 2:11 AM on June 15, 2017
That isn't equality. That isn't freedom. That isn't even showing the church if England the basic respect of being able to determine its own position of the issue. It's parliamentary mandating of a religious position. And it is sure as fuck not how you achieve equality or normalise something.
posted by Dysk at 2:11 AM on June 15, 2017
"I'd rather someone who doesn't think that people should do things but will fight for them to be able to do them, rather than someone who has no opinion either way but won't fight for their rights."
This is also a hilariously false dichotomy. Farron is not the only politician to take up queer rights. It's not like we can't have someone who'll fight for us without judging us as sinful failures in God's eyes.
posted by Dysk at 2:14 AM on June 15, 2017
This is also a hilariously false dichotomy. Farron is not the only politician to take up queer rights. It's not like we can't have someone who'll fight for us without judging us as sinful failures in God's eyes.
posted by Dysk at 2:14 AM on June 15, 2017
I guess in the context of Tim Farron, fighting for someone to be able to do something, even if you disagree with them doing it is... better than nothing... But, yeah, fighting wholeheartedly without the judgement would be better.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 2:17 AM on June 15, 2017
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 2:17 AM on June 15, 2017
All of the things Farron campaigned for on marriage equality are nice, but there's also an omission, notable especially for someone concerned with religious coercion. The Church of England is specifically forbidden by the law from conducting gay marriages. No other religious organisation has a position forced on them, nevermind by parliament. As a liberal (and a Liberal) this should be if some concern. But no. Completely unaddressed. Apparently a-OK.
He thinks that it should be disestablished .
He thinks that it should be disestablished .
What would you say to the Archbishop of Canterbury as Lib Dem leader?posted by MattWPBS at 2:38 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
First of all, you allow religious groups to practice their lifestyles within the creed that they settled on.
The fundamental thing I say to the Archbishop – and I certainly said it to the last Archbishop of Canterbury – is the Church of England should be disestablished. That’s the simple answer to all this.
I think the Church of England is compromised by being part of the furniture of the state. Although I’m a Christian myself, I do not believe I have any right to impose my faith on anybody else.
I think it damages Christianity to have an established church, and it certainly it’s also illiberal to have a state church anyway.
...which doesn't change the fact that he was willing to compromise religious freedom and impose a "no gays" policy on CoE, by law. What anyone would do as a Lib Dem prime minister is about as relevant to actual politics as their stance on what their policy would be toward Jesus' second coming in a flying saucer from the moon.
posted by Dysk at 2:55 AM on June 15, 2017
posted by Dysk at 2:55 AM on June 15, 2017
Dysk - I might be entirely wrong on this, but I thought the reason for that part of the law was due to the CofE being the established church and the relationship with church law? If so, disestablishment of the church solves it.
Overall I'm aware that I'm replying a lot at the moment. Please tell me if it's getting too much.
I just feel that we've lost a good person as our party leader. He has his personal beliefs, but the strongest belief seems to be that he shouldn't impose his own morals on anyone else. There seems to be the urge to focus on the private beliefs about actions that people don't like, and ignore the public actions that show his beliefs on how others should be treated. We've lost a fighter for equality because people couldn't believe his motives could be something good. To quote from the Channel 4 interview that gave so many problems:
"And it’s not our views on personal morality that matter, what matters is do we go out there and fight for the freedom of every single individual to be who they wish to be. That’s what makes a liberal."
That's who we've lost.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:23 AM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Overall I'm aware that I'm replying a lot at the moment. Please tell me if it's getting too much.
I just feel that we've lost a good person as our party leader. He has his personal beliefs, but the strongest belief seems to be that he shouldn't impose his own morals on anyone else. There seems to be the urge to focus on the private beliefs about actions that people don't like, and ignore the public actions that show his beliefs on how others should be treated. We've lost a fighter for equality because people couldn't believe his motives could be something good. To quote from the Channel 4 interview that gave so many problems:
"And it’s not our views on personal morality that matter, what matters is do we go out there and fight for the freedom of every single individual to be who they wish to be. That’s what makes a liberal."
That's who we've lost.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:23 AM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Personally, I don't think you're replying too much MattWPBS (though I might be...). But I admit I feel even more conflicted now than when this sub-discussion started... I think I need to go read more about Tim Farron. Both you and Dysk have given me much to think about.
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 3:38 AM on June 15, 2017
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 3:38 AM on June 15, 2017
The worst-performing Lib Dem leader of living memory (in terms of vote share). Even worse than the 2015 wipeout. That's who you've lost.
Fighter for equality or not, some of his public actions were shameful - like speaking publicly about how he thought gay sex was wrong (which is what his "no comment"s and evasion amounted to) and non-Christian. Social stigma and discrimination are real. It's not just about legislation.
(And whether disestablishment would solve the issue is irrelevant, because disestablishment was never on the table. Even if the abolition of prisons is my policy, I'm still responsible for any voting I do to make prison conditions worse, even if just doing the unrealistic thing that is my policy would solve or nullify that).
posted by Dysk at 3:42 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Fighter for equality or not, some of his public actions were shameful - like speaking publicly about how he thought gay sex was wrong (which is what his "no comment"s and evasion amounted to) and non-Christian. Social stigma and discrimination are real. It's not just about legislation.
(And whether disestablishment would solve the issue is irrelevant, because disestablishment was never on the table. Even if the abolition of prisons is my policy, I'm still responsible for any voting I do to make prison conditions worse, even if just doing the unrealistic thing that is my policy would solve or nullify that).
posted by Dysk at 3:42 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's a fascinating contrast that in the US political leaders must pretend to be Christian (or at least of faith) whether they are or not.
In the UK Farron resigns over being a Christian, Blair was told "We don't do religion" and kept utterly quiet about his faith until he was well out of office. Cameron causing a scandal by describing Britain as "A Christian Country".
Doubly interesting (to me anyway) that the US is officially and legally a secular state whereas we have a state religion and we have seats in the Lords for religious leaders (which I could actually broadly get on board with if they were installed based on the division of faith in the country, including atheism, and probably Jedi too). It's only us and Iran who have members of the state religion as part of the legislature.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
In the UK Farron resigns over being a Christian, Blair was told "We don't do religion" and kept utterly quiet about his faith until he was well out of office. Cameron causing a scandal by describing Britain as "A Christian Country".
Doubly interesting (to me anyway) that the US is officially and legally a secular state whereas we have a state religion and we have seats in the Lords for religious leaders (which I could actually broadly get on board with if they were installed based on the division of faith in the country, including atheism, and probably Jedi too). It's only us and Iran who have members of the state religion as part of the legislature.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Dysk - you are right that disestablishment was not on the table; the fact of establishment meant that a clause preventing same sex marriage in the Church of England was all but inevitable because CoE canon law currently says that marriage is between a man and a woman. The queen is the head of the church and defender of the faith and you can't (as HM government) put the queen in the position of having to make a political choice.
The church's position is manifestly wrong, but the politics of a bill that would pass meant it had to be respected. If the church changes (as I expect it eventually will) the current equal marriage bill could be amended or replaced with a better one.
posted by crocomancer at 4:23 AM on June 15, 2017
The church's position is manifestly wrong, but the politics of a bill that would pass meant it had to be respected. If the church changes (as I expect it eventually will) the current equal marriage bill could be amended or replaced with a better one.
posted by crocomancer at 4:23 AM on June 15, 2017
As an aside, I was looking up the religions of former prime ministers and saw this page:
Records of Prime Ministers
It's great! Did you know that Lord Salisbury, was the only prime minister with a full beard? Disraeli gets partial credit for a goatee.
One prime minister (Baldwin) served three monarchs but six prime ministers were born within the reign of the monarch they later served (obviously a bunch under Liz2).
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:36 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Records of Prime Ministers
It's great! Did you know that Lord Salisbury, was the only prime minister with a full beard? Disraeli gets partial credit for a goatee.
One prime minister (Baldwin) served three monarchs but six prime ministers were born within the reign of the monarch they later served (obviously a bunch under Liz2).
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:36 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'm glad to see we've reached the point of discussing antidisestablishmentarianism.
posted by Major Clanger at 6:44 AM on June 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 6:44 AM on June 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
Latest YouGov poll sees May plummet to -34 favourability, with Corbyn rising to net 0 favourability. The Tories are now -21 and Labour +6.
posted by adrianhon at 7:18 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by adrianhon at 7:18 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
I'd say the discussion is actually about disestablishmentarianism, rather than antidisestablishmentarianism.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:26 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:26 AM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
rising to net 0 favourability
Oh, look: a new chapter title for the Book of 2017.
posted by Etrigan at 7:40 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Oh, look: a new chapter title for the Book of 2017.
posted by Etrigan at 7:40 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
So - Queen's Speech next Wednesday, and still no DUP deal ("90 percent done", apparently, which means 'not done').
Going to be a short speech. Perhaps it'll be the first Queen's Tweet.
posted by Devonian at 8:46 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
Going to be a short speech. Perhaps it'll be the first Queen's Tweet.
posted by Devonian at 8:46 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
Did you know that Lord Salisbury, was the only prime minister with a full beard?
But not for long, hopefully
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:48 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
But not for long, hopefully
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:48 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Brexit talks to start Monday, apparently. Before an agreement is reached with the DUP.
posted by threetwentytwo at 8:53 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by threetwentytwo at 8:53 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Pretty sure she's just going to push on, in her arrogant and clueless way, as if she's won a mandate, when she couldn't even win a majority. This wretched government can't fall fast enough.
posted by skybluepink at 8:53 AM on June 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by skybluepink at 8:53 AM on June 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
But not for long, hopefully
Corbyn hammering out deal with Sinn Féin where they will take their seats in exchange for him wearing muttonchops.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:57 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
Corbyn hammering out deal with Sinn Féin where they will take their seats in exchange for him wearing muttonchops.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:57 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
Speaking of Sinn Fein, they've come out saying the Tory/DUP deal breaches the Good Friday agreement.
I'll try and put together a suitable Election aftermath thread, this one's getting a bit long in the tooth and I feel like the consequences merit their own.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:48 AM on June 15, 2017 [16 favorites]
I'll try and put together a suitable Election aftermath thread, this one's getting a bit long in the tooth and I feel like the consequences merit their own.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:48 AM on June 15, 2017 [16 favorites]
Going to be a short speech. Perhaps it'll be the first Queen's Tweet.
So that's why Twitter did a UI refresh today: rolling out goatskin parchment paper support for the Queen.
posted by zachlipton at 10:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
So that's why Twitter did a UI refresh today: rolling out goatskin parchment paper support for the Queen.
posted by zachlipton at 10:20 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Going to be a short speech. Perhaps it'll be the first Queen's Tweet.
"We just want to say good luck. We are all counting on you."
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:24 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
"We just want to say good luck. We are all counting on you."
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:24 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
One is all counting on you.
posted by vbfg at 10:35 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by vbfg at 10:35 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Jeremy Corbyn to visit 65 Tory marginal seats as he tells Labour MPs to remain 'in permanent campaign mode'
posted by indubitable at 11:06 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by indubitable at 11:06 AM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
Harsh: Thanks, Brits – Brexit has vaccinated Europe against populism
posted by Artw at 11:10 AM on June 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:10 AM on June 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
(Wish it had worked on the US. On the other hand, "Mr. Brexit" is quite the vaccination himself)
posted by Artw at 11:10 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 11:10 AM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
@IanDunt: Brexit dept confirms talks will start in Brussels on Monday, even though there's no government, no plan, no aims and no capacity to deliver.
So that could be awkward.
posted by zachlipton at 11:14 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
So that could be awkward.
posted by zachlipton at 11:14 AM on June 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
from the article Artw posted:
posted by indubitable at 11:18 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Watching Brexit unfold is such a pleasure. One year on from the referendum of 23 June 2016, it is now clear that what we predicted is coming true: leaving the European Union is exceptionally difficult (assuming it is even possible), carries an undeniable cost, and plays havoc with the politics of the country attempting it – as the fiasco of Britain’s snap election, on 8 June, amply demonstrates.We are reaching levels of smugness that shouldn't even be possible. It sure would be embarrassing if FN surges again next election after five years of austerity and civil unrest.
That’s why I was in favour of a victory for leave: it would mean all the Europhobes and Eurosceptics of the union would see their dreams shatter on the brick wall of reality. So I would like to express my profound gratitude to the British people, who have once more demonstrated a spirit of sacrifice that is greatly to their credit. Thanks to them, the people of Europe will be vaccinated against populist adventurism for some time to come.
posted by indubitable at 11:18 AM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
It's a fascinating contrast that in the US political leaders must pretend to be Christian (or at least of faith) whether they are or not ... Doubly interesting (to me anyway) that the US is officially and legally a secular state whereas we have a state religion and we have seats in the Lords for religious leaders
My theory is that having a state church in a liberal democracy can serve as inoculation against religion in its wilder forms, like feeding a weakened form of a virus to a host to bolster its immune system. On one hand there are the Church of England and the state Lutheran churches in the Nordic countries, and on the other hand there was the profusion of religious revivals and “burned-over” evangelical/pentecostal Christianity in the US, the first post-Enlightenment secular state.
posted by acb at 12:12 PM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
My theory is that having a state church in a liberal democracy can serve as inoculation against religion in its wilder forms, like feeding a weakened form of a virus to a host to bolster its immune system. On one hand there are the Church of England and the state Lutheran churches in the Nordic countries, and on the other hand there was the profusion of religious revivals and “burned-over” evangelical/pentecostal Christianity in the US, the first post-Enlightenment secular state.
posted by acb at 12:12 PM on June 15, 2017 [6 favorites]
we have seats in the Lords for religious leaders (which I could actually broadly get on board with if they were installed based on the division of faith in the country, including atheism, and probably Jedi too)
Though once you form constituencies on the basis of faith (or the lack thereof), why not other bases? Why not have an upper house whose seats are distributed on the basis of profession (perhaps with unions, guilds and professional associations as constituencies), for example? Or by lifestyle/stage (youth, parents, single adults, elders), or interests or subcultures or similar? Once one opens the possibility of partitioning the electorate along one axis, one also opens the question of why not other axes, and with a finite size of upper house, some acrimonious fights over which groups should or shouldn't count.
posted by acb at 12:20 PM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Though once you form constituencies on the basis of faith (or the lack thereof), why not other bases? Why not have an upper house whose seats are distributed on the basis of profession (perhaps with unions, guilds and professional associations as constituencies), for example? Or by lifestyle/stage (youth, parents, single adults, elders), or interests or subcultures or similar? Once one opens the possibility of partitioning the electorate along one axis, one also opens the question of why not other axes, and with a finite size of upper house, some acrimonious fights over which groups should or shouldn't count.
posted by acb at 12:20 PM on June 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Huh. Exactly - only - a week since *that* exit poll.
posted by Wordshore at 2:05 PM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 2:05 PM on June 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
I can't believe it's only been a week.
I can't believe it's only been two weeks since two weeks ago.
Talk about an interesting life.
posted by tel3path at 2:20 PM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
I can't believe it's only been two weeks since two weeks ago.
Talk about an interesting life.
posted by tel3path at 2:20 PM on June 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
I can't believe it's only been a week.
I can't believe it's only been two weeks since two weeks ago.
Welcome to being an American since 20 January.
posted by HumuloneRanger at 6:46 PM on June 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
I can't believe it's only been two weeks since two weeks ago.
Welcome to being an American since 20 January.
posted by HumuloneRanger at 6:46 PM on June 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
This strikes me as a canny proposal by Corbyn: Grenfell Tower fire: Jeremy Corbyn suggests using empty Kensington properties for victims
posted by Chrysostom at 7:19 PM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:19 PM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
. On one hand there are the Church of England and the state Lutheran churches in the Nordic countries, and on the other hand there was the profusion of religious revivals and “burned-over” evangelical/pentecostal Christianity in the US, the first post-Enlightenment secular state.
A different factor is that when you have more spending towards government services that alleviate human suffering, you then have fewer sufferers turning towards religion.
(According to the abstract I skimmed of an article that presumably confirms my preconceptions on the subject.)
A different factor is that when you have more spending towards government services that alleviate human suffering, you then have fewer sufferers turning towards religion.
(According to the abstract I skimmed of an article that presumably confirms my preconceptions on the subject.)
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:58 PM on June 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Journal - Rationality and Society
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1043463104046694
State Welfare Spending and Religiosity
A Cross-National Analysis
Anthony Gill, Erik Lundsgaarde
First Published November 1, 2004 Research Article
PDF download for State Welfare Spending and Religiosity Article Information
Article has an altmetric score of 20 No Access
Abstract
What accounts for cross-national variation in religiosity as measured by church attendance and non-religious rates? Examining answers from both secularization theory and the religious economy perspective, we assert that cross-national variation in religious participation is a function of government welfare spending and provide a theory that links macro-sociological outcomes with individual rationality. Churches historically have provided social welfare. As governments gradually assume many of these welfare functions, individuals with elastic preferences for spiritual goods will reduce their level of participation since the desired welfare goods can be obtained from secular sources. Cross-national data on welfare spending and religious participation show a strong negative relationship between these two variables after controlling for other aspects of modernization.
I contacted my Tory MP asking him to oppose a deal with the DUP. Got this email back:
Despite the Conservative Party winning more seats and votes than any other party and being the only one able to form a government, Thursday’s result was clearly disappointing.
At this critical time for the country, we need certainty and as the largest party in the county, we are working hard to form a government in the national interest.
We are in discussions with the DUP to finalise a confidence and supply agreement. This deal will provide the certainty and stability the country needs as we begin the Brexit negotiations.
The Conservatives in government brought in same sex marriage and earlier this year brought in Turing’s law to remove convictions for consensual acts. There is no plan to change current abortion law.
We remain a tolerant, open welcoming party that believes in freedom of choice for everyone.
The DUP have been in power in Northern Ireland for some twenty years and as part of the devolved administration have worked hard to ensure Northern Ireland remains a peaceful democracy. We share many economic and security issues and they have voted with the Conservative party in Parliament on many occasions in the past.
My father, who has Alzheimer's but still knows a thing or two, said of this "Wow! That really is all froth and bubbles! He knows perfectly well that the DUP is a very nasty gang of religious bigots and near-fascist creeps, but he also wants to stay in power, and any way of doing that is perfectly fine, my dear."
posted by paduasoy at 2:07 AM on June 16, 2017 [7 favorites]
Despite the Conservative Party winning more seats and votes than any other party and being the only one able to form a government, Thursday’s result was clearly disappointing.
At this critical time for the country, we need certainty and as the largest party in the county, we are working hard to form a government in the national interest.
We are in discussions with the DUP to finalise a confidence and supply agreement. This deal will provide the certainty and stability the country needs as we begin the Brexit negotiations.
The Conservatives in government brought in same sex marriage and earlier this year brought in Turing’s law to remove convictions for consensual acts. There is no plan to change current abortion law.
We remain a tolerant, open welcoming party that believes in freedom of choice for everyone.
The DUP have been in power in Northern Ireland for some twenty years and as part of the devolved administration have worked hard to ensure Northern Ireland remains a peaceful democracy. We share many economic and security issues and they have voted with the Conservative party in Parliament on many occasions in the past.
My father, who has Alzheimer's but still knows a thing or two, said of this "Wow! That really is all froth and bubbles! He knows perfectly well that the DUP is a very nasty gang of religious bigots and near-fascist creeps, but he also wants to stay in power, and any way of doing that is perfectly fine, my dear."
posted by paduasoy at 2:07 AM on June 16, 2017 [7 favorites]
Welcome to being an American since 20 January.
What, did something happen over there or something? Wasn't paying attention.
posted by tel3path at 2:12 AM on June 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
What, did something happen over there or something? Wasn't paying attention.
posted by tel3path at 2:12 AM on June 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
> A different factor is that when you have more spending towards government services that alleviate human suffering, you then have fewer sufferers turning towards religion.
and this is something that's understood by fanatical religious institutions, even if they only understand it on a tacit or unconscious level. State-provided services are competition for religious zealotry, and so fanatical religious institutions work to sabotage left measures to alleviate suffering.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:25 AM on June 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
and this is something that's understood by fanatical religious institutions, even if they only understand it on a tacit or unconscious level. State-provided services are competition for religious zealotry, and so fanatical religious institutions work to sabotage left measures to alleviate suffering.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:25 AM on June 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
What, did something happen over there or something? Wasn't paying attention.
They've been filming the least plausible Dr. Who episode ever wherein an alien (some ex-reality-television star in cheesy orange makeup) takes over the White House with the help of a couple computer-savvy Nazis and an ex-KGB officer.
It's kind of scary.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:36 AM on June 16, 2017 [11 favorites]
They've been filming the least plausible Dr. Who episode ever wherein an alien (some ex-reality-television star in cheesy orange makeup) takes over the White House with the help of a couple computer-savvy Nazis and an ex-KGB officer.
It's kind of scary.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:36 AM on June 16, 2017 [11 favorites]
We are reaching levels of smugness that shouldn't even be possible.I've always thought that if you are a member of a union that is effectively impossible to leave by peaceful means then you really should be a little bit concerned.
posted by fullerine at 3:47 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
The EU isn't effectively impossible to leave by peaceful means. There is a perfectly peaceful process available under the terms of the Treaty. Of course, leaving turns out to be an utter disaster but that's because of the remarkable benefits that come with EU membership, and the way in which the UK economy and social and regulatory structures have shaped around them.
It's like a divorce. You might have a disastrous time getting divorced because your spouse is a bully and wants to trap you. Or you might have a disastrous time because you've been married for forty years, have learned to depend on your partner, have trouble remembering how to live alone, and have very few separate assets. The first situation is an indication of a bad marriage and the second situation isn't. Brexit is much more like the second.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:16 AM on June 16, 2017 [17 favorites]
It's like a divorce. You might have a disastrous time getting divorced because your spouse is a bully and wants to trap you. Or you might have a disastrous time because you've been married for forty years, have learned to depend on your partner, have trouble remembering how to live alone, and have very few separate assets. The first situation is an indication of a bad marriage and the second situation isn't. Brexit is much more like the second.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:16 AM on June 16, 2017 [17 favorites]
I've always thought that if you are a member of a union that is effectively impossible to leave by peaceful means then you really should be a little bit concerned.
Effectively impossible and extremely counter-productive are very different, of course.
posted by jaduncan at 4:19 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
Effectively impossible and extremely counter-productive are very different, of course.
posted by jaduncan at 4:19 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
Effectively impossible - Warsaw Pact.
Effectively disastrous - EU.
You may have noticed that nobody in the EU is trying to stop us leaving, least of all with tanks. They think it's a very bad idea, as does around half of the UK, but all we had to do was schlep a bit of paper.
posted by Devonian at 4:28 AM on June 16, 2017 [10 favorites]
Effectively disastrous - EU.
You may have noticed that nobody in the EU is trying to stop us leaving, least of all with tanks. They think it's a very bad idea, as does around half of the UK, but all we had to do was schlep a bit of paper.
posted by Devonian at 4:28 AM on June 16, 2017 [10 favorites]
all we had to do was schlep a bit of paper.
Ish. We had to give notice. The physical delivery of the paper was, you'll be shocked to know, absolutely pointless and unrequired nationalist theatre.
posted by jaduncan at 4:36 AM on June 16, 2017 [4 favorites]
Ish. We had to give notice. The physical delivery of the paper was, you'll be shocked to know, absolutely pointless and unrequired nationalist theatre.
posted by jaduncan at 4:36 AM on June 16, 2017 [4 favorites]
jaduncan: You expect us to dump them by text message? So déclassé.
posted by Leon at 4:40 AM on June 16, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by Leon at 4:40 AM on June 16, 2017 [8 favorites]
In the Tory manifesto, they specifically dropped Leveson part 2. Theresa May's contact with Murdoch's company has been described as "astounding".
Little surprise, then, that the Sun are still at it.
[I've linked to it in the Fire thread as well, but it also relates to a specific manifesto pledge]
posted by threetwentytwo at 4:41 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Little surprise, then, that the Sun are still at it.
[I've linked to it in the Fire thread as well, but it also relates to a specific manifesto pledge]
posted by threetwentytwo at 4:41 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Corbyn to introduce Run The Jewels at Glasto
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:54 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:54 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
"This is beyond even the bleakest warnings of Remainers in the days after the vote."
posted by rory at 6:18 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by rory at 6:18 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Considering how well the Conservative Party is doing at the moment, is it possible that the DUP will just walk away from the table?
posted by Yowser at 6:31 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Yowser at 6:31 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
Will walk away from the deal? Is this the deal that was announced as finished last Saturday, or the one that was "90 percent done" on Tuesday?
Hard to keep up with all this stable and strong stabiloid strengthicity.
posted by Devonian at 7:22 AM on June 16, 2017 [7 favorites]
Hard to keep up with all this stable and strong stabiloid strengthicity.
posted by Devonian at 7:22 AM on June 16, 2017 [7 favorites]
For those who are more familiar, has Sinn Fein ever threatened to take up their seats before? Is this as unprecedented as it seems?
posted by corb at 7:45 AM on June 16, 2017
posted by corb at 7:45 AM on June 16, 2017
For those who are more familiar, has Sinn Fein ever threatened to take up their seats before? Is this as unprecedented as it seems?
Have I missed something? SF taking an oath of loyalty to the Queen is going to happen when Hell freezes over, cats sleep with dogs, and Trump criticises Putin.
posted by jaduncan at 7:49 AM on June 16, 2017 [9 favorites]
Have I missed something? SF taking an oath of loyalty to the Queen is going to happen when Hell freezes over, cats sleep with dogs, and Trump criticises Putin.
posted by jaduncan at 7:49 AM on June 16, 2017 [9 favorites]
Sinn Féin stated that they will not be taking up their seats yesterday. I can’t see that changing any time soon.
Q: Would you ever take your seats at Westminster?posted by pharm at 7:52 AM on June 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
Adams says the Sinn Féin MPs are republicans. They were elected on a mandate not to get involved in British affairs. They will not swear allegiance to the Queen. The British can decide their own affairs and make their own mess of it, he says.
Thanks pharm! I was looking at the Sun article posted upthread about them flying to London and taking Westminster offices, and wasn't sure how serious that was.
posted by corb at 7:57 AM on June 16, 2017
posted by corb at 7:57 AM on June 16, 2017
Dammit. Closed the tab I was doing the new thread in. I'll try and sort it tonight.
Expect growing tensions in Northern Ireland, impact for Brexit, polling success and failure, blow back for the party leaders and re-shuffles.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:59 AM on June 16, 2017
Expect growing tensions in Northern Ireland, impact for Brexit, polling success and failure, blow back for the party leaders and re-shuffles.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:59 AM on June 16, 2017
Has anybody checked on the ravens in the Tower recently? Perhaps someone should do a quick tally...
posted by acb at 8:00 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:00 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
I’d say that it’s within the realm of the possible, but the requirement for an MP to swear an oath of allegiance to the crown is a major stumbling block that would have to be worked around somehow for it to happen corb.
posted by pharm at 8:01 AM on June 16, 2017
posted by pharm at 8:01 AM on June 16, 2017
MattWPS: if you re-open the closed tab from the history, it might have preserved your form entries.
posted by pharm at 8:01 AM on June 16, 2017
posted by pharm at 8:01 AM on June 16, 2017
Has anybody checked on the ravens in the Tower recently? Perhaps somebody should do a quick tally...
There have been some troubling developments on that front.
posted by tobascodagama at 8:02 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
There have been some troubling developments on that front.
posted by tobascodagama at 8:02 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
I was looking at the Sun article posted upthread about them flying to London and taking Westminster offices, and wasn't sure how serious that was.
I think they use the offices and facilities provided for MPs — I guess for doing constituency work and so on? — but don’t sit in the Commons.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:04 AM on June 16, 2017
I think they use the offices and facilities provided for MPs — I guess for doing constituency work and so on? — but don’t sit in the Commons.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:04 AM on June 16, 2017
I think they use the offices and facilities provided for MPs — I guess for doing constituency work and so on? — but don’t sit in the Commons.
I think they should walk towards the chamber as a group, quickly but deliberately, on a random schedule, just to fuck with the Tories and DUP every once in a while.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:11 AM on June 16, 2017 [17 favorites]
I think they should walk towards the chamber as a group, quickly but deliberately, on a random schedule, just to fuck with the Tories and DUP every once in a while.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:11 AM on June 16, 2017 [17 favorites]
the requirement for an MP to swear an oath of allegiance to the crown
Joking aside, it would also mean that they were accepting the validity of HMG as a ruling entity for NI. This would probably massively destabilise the peace process on the Republican side and quite possibly result in the recreation of the Real IRA et al...and the Tories and DUP would still have a majority.
Quite aside from the principle, it would be a very stupid time to play that card.
posted by jaduncan at 8:12 AM on June 16, 2017 [9 favorites]
Joking aside, it would also mean that they were accepting the validity of HMG as a ruling entity for NI. This would probably massively destabilise the peace process on the Republican side and quite possibly result in the recreation of the Real IRA et al...and the Tories and DUP would still have a majority.
Quite aside from the principle, it would be a very stupid time to play that card.
posted by jaduncan at 8:12 AM on June 16, 2017 [9 favorites]
yes - SF won't take their seats, but they will will do other MP work that sometimes involves travelling to Westminster. More info on what they do at Westminster.
posted by Catseye at 8:15 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 8:15 AM on June 16, 2017 [5 favorites]
Long, interesting article on Flip Chart Fairy Tales: The end of the Long 90s:
Brexit showed that, if enough people are for or against something, by voting, they can start or stop things from happening, regardless of what big business or any other powerful interests might say. Older voters discovered this first... And, finally, young voters got the message about voting too.That refers to this Andrew Lilico article All that matters now is stopping Corbyn:
With the threat of a Corbyn government, the Tories must find a way to carry on for as long as possible, in the hope something turns up. If that means, for the next five years, running a minority government that does little more than pass a holding finance bill each year, with the rest of the Commons’ time spent debating drain repairs and motions congratulating the Queen of Bhutan on the birth of her latest child, that’ll be just fine.posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:10 AM on June 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
From that article:
"that stuff about the IRA, Hezbollah, the Falklands, nuclear weapons, a maximum wage, mass nationalisation, appointing Communists, abolishing the monarchy and empowering the unions was all true and ought to have made him utterly inconceivable as a prime minister, but it didn’t."
If you have a sufficiently loose definition of the word true then.... i guess?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 9:37 AM on June 16, 2017
"that stuff about the IRA, Hezbollah, the Falklands, nuclear weapons, a maximum wage, mass nationalisation, appointing Communists, abolishing the monarchy and empowering the unions was all true and ought to have made him utterly inconceivable as a prime minister, but it didn’t."
If you have a sufficiently loose definition of the word true then.... i guess?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 9:37 AM on June 16, 2017
I'm half wondering who will be the Pinochet to Corbyn's Allende.
And what Operation Condor will look like with big-data surveillance backing it.
posted by acb at 9:48 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
And what Operation Condor will look like with big-data surveillance backing it.
posted by acb at 9:48 AM on June 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Prediction: May and her government - whatever form it takes - won't be going anywhere until strict voter ID legislation is passed. The DUP will be wanting it as well (there is already a form of this in Northern Ireland) and the overall effect, as unambiguously seen in recent US elections, is to make it more difficult for naturally left-leaning voters to be allowed to cast their vote, while having little effect on right-leaning voters.
It'll be sold under the guise of "protecting the democratic process". Expect the right-wing newspapers to start doing exaggerated and made-up stories about mass voter fraud and similar soon in order to make this legislation seem necessary. And the legislation to be top of the priority list, probably already entrusted to Andrea Leadsom to ensure it gets onto the books quickly. Only afterwards will we have another election - by which time the UK will start to resemble a rainy version of Wisconsin for all the wrong reasons.
posted by Wordshore at 5:22 AM on June 17, 2017 [7 favorites]
It'll be sold under the guise of "protecting the democratic process". Expect the right-wing newspapers to start doing exaggerated and made-up stories about mass voter fraud and similar soon in order to make this legislation seem necessary. And the legislation to be top of the priority list, probably already entrusted to Andrea Leadsom to ensure it gets onto the books quickly. Only afterwards will we have another election - by which time the UK will start to resemble a rainy version of Wisconsin for all the wrong reasons.
posted by Wordshore at 5:22 AM on June 17, 2017 [7 favorites]
I wouldn't guarantee they'll be able to pass voter ID laws - there are libertarianesque Tories who don't like that sort of thing, and the Lords certainly won't - and they probably won't consider themselves bound by the Salisbury Convention..
It will be an unpopular and divisive bill - and May is shaping up to be unable to pass so much as a fart after a chicken jalfrezi.
posted by Devonian at 6:00 AM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
It will be an unpopular and divisive bill - and May is shaping up to be unable to pass so much as a fart after a chicken jalfrezi.
posted by Devonian at 6:00 AM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
there are libertarianesque Tories who don't like that sort of thing
Are they different from the libertarianesque Republicans in Wisconsin?
posted by acb at 6:26 AM on June 17, 2017 [3 favorites]
Are they different from the libertarianesque Republicans in Wisconsin?
posted by acb at 6:26 AM on June 17, 2017 [3 favorites]
Are they different from the libertarianesque Republicans in Wisconsin?
Yes, the libertarianesque Tories love Marmite.
posted by Mister Bijou at 6:44 AM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
Yes, the libertarianesque Tories love Marmite.
posted by Mister Bijou at 6:44 AM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
They have some cover: I was pretty dismayed when I discovered the Electoral Commission has been advocating for photo ID since 2014. "A recommendation which was echoed in Sir Eric Pickles’ recent review of electoral fraud." At the same time they have multiple statements/reports that fraud is not a significant problem, and their biggest concern about it seems to be "inspiring confidence". At the same time they were still monitoring the effect of Individual Registration as implemented by the tories. It didn't quite inspire my confidence.
Their reports make do make reference to the US, but we should have higher standards than "not as bad as the US". I can accept there were good reasons to modernize registration. I don't understand why we would need photo ID.
posted by sourcejedi at 7:15 AM on June 17, 2017 [2 favorites]
Their reports make do make reference to the US, but we should have higher standards than "not as bad as the US". I can accept there were good reasons to modernize registration. I don't understand why we would need photo ID.
posted by sourcejedi at 7:15 AM on June 17, 2017 [2 favorites]
Are they different from the libertarianesque Republicans in Wisconsin?
They've sworn an oath to Her Majesty the Queen, her heirs and successors, so yes. Also, they drive on the correct side of the road and appreciate muscular electricity.
posted by Devonian at 7:15 AM on June 17, 2017 [8 favorites]
They've sworn an oath to Her Majesty the Queen, her heirs and successors, so yes. Also, they drive on the correct side of the road and appreciate muscular electricity.
posted by Devonian at 7:15 AM on June 17, 2017 [8 favorites]
Electoral fraud in the UK has almost entirely revolved around postal voting - in person voting is not really a problem because people tend to notice if someone else has voted by impersonating them.
posted by pharm at 8:38 AM on June 17, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by pharm at 8:38 AM on June 17, 2017 [2 favorites]
I don't even know how that would work. You go to the vote, they check you off the electoral roll, you vote. If someone got there first and had given your address, it would be immediately apparent. I suppose if you know someone in another ward is on the electoral roll and isn't going to vote, you can nip across and pretend to be them, but there's no systemic way to do that, just opportunistically.
And I presume that just taking your Poll Card with you (which I used to do, before finding it much more satisfying to present myself as a bona fide citizen sans papiers) would do as ID anyway.
If voter ID turns into a bill, I'm going all-in on opposing it.
posted by Devonian at 1:37 PM on June 17, 2017 [4 favorites]
And I presume that just taking your Poll Card with you (which I used to do, before finding it much more satisfying to present myself as a bona fide citizen sans papiers) would do as ID anyway.
If voter ID turns into a bill, I'm going all-in on opposing it.
posted by Devonian at 1:37 PM on June 17, 2017 [4 favorites]
Voter impersonation fraud is also practically non-existent in the US too... but that hasn't stopped it serving as a useful myth to justify barriers to voting.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:54 PM on June 17, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:54 PM on June 17, 2017 [7 favorites]
by which time the UK will start to resemble a rainy version of Wisconsin for all the wrong reasons.
Not all the wrong ones, England is also rightly acclaimed for its cheeses.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 5:39 PM on June 17, 2017 [11 favorites]
Not all the wrong ones, England is also rightly acclaimed for its cheeses.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 5:39 PM on June 17, 2017 [11 favorites]
Ride or die for Double Gloucester and Stilton.
posted by tobascodagama at 7:11 PM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by tobascodagama at 7:11 PM on June 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
Bah. Next you'll be telling us that England is also noteworthy for their love of beer and football.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:43 PM on June 17, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:43 PM on June 17, 2017 [4 favorites]
2018 Queen's Speech dropped to "ease the way in parliament for new Brexit laws", or alternatively "dodge controversial Commons votes which could topple the PM".
Can't be forced into election after losing Queen's Speech if we don't have a Queen's Speech [guy-tapping-head.gif]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:33 PM on June 17, 2017 [6 favorites]
Can't be forced into election after losing Queen's Speech if we don't have a Queen's Speech [guy-tapping-head.gif]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:33 PM on June 17, 2017 [6 favorites]
I didn't actually know they could do that, despite it having happened in 2011. How often does it occur?
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:52 PM on June 17, 2017
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:52 PM on June 17, 2017
It's rare. I don't remember it ever happening before then.
One of the unusual things about Theresa May is that she became Prime Minister without ever being Leader of the Opposition. I think that's been a problem for her as she hasn't had the usual experience of trying to win votes in Parliament without a majority, and it will be more of a problem as she learns on the job while leading a minority government. I think that was also one of the factors in her failed attempts to avoid a vote on Brexit: she lacks experience at the basic business of winning Parliamentary votes.
She seems to repeatedly make the same mistake: try to avoid a difficult vote in Parliament, get into worse trouble because of it. But that might just be an instance of her general tendency to try to avoid difficult things and get into worse trouble for the avoidance. (Voting on Brexit, running a goverment with a small-ish majority, joining a leadership debate, meeting Grenfell Tower victims...)
This could be the same mistake again. If she's Prime Minister in 2018 in such dire straits she can't win a Queen's Speech, ducking it could be worse than forcing MPs to back her or sack her.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:16 PM on June 17, 2017 [3 favorites]
One of the unusual things about Theresa May is that she became Prime Minister without ever being Leader of the Opposition. I think that's been a problem for her as she hasn't had the usual experience of trying to win votes in Parliament without a majority, and it will be more of a problem as she learns on the job while leading a minority government. I think that was also one of the factors in her failed attempts to avoid a vote on Brexit: she lacks experience at the basic business of winning Parliamentary votes.
She seems to repeatedly make the same mistake: try to avoid a difficult vote in Parliament, get into worse trouble because of it. But that might just be an instance of her general tendency to try to avoid difficult things and get into worse trouble for the avoidance. (Voting on Brexit, running a goverment with a small-ish majority, joining a leadership debate, meeting Grenfell Tower victims...)
This could be the same mistake again. If she's Prime Minister in 2018 in such dire straits she can't win a Queen's Speech, ducking it could be worse than forcing MPs to back her or sack her.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:16 PM on June 17, 2017 [3 favorites]
One of my MEPs, the odious ukip Roger Helmer, has resigned... good riddance to bad rubbish, pity it wasn't sooner.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:38 AM on June 18, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:38 AM on June 18, 2017 [4 favorites]
Made the mistake of turning on the TV news:
- Tower block fire toll rises
- Still no UK government
- Terrorist attack
- Brits die in heatwave
- US/Russia hostilities
- Portugese die in forest fire
- Brian Cant dead
Seriously thinking of giving up more TV and all-but-necessary Internet for the summer.
posted by Wordshore at 12:15 PM on June 19, 2017 [6 favorites]
- Tower block fire toll rises
- Still no UK government
- Terrorist attack
- Brits die in heatwave
- US/Russia hostilities
- Portugese die in forest fire
- Brian Cant dead
Seriously thinking of giving up more TV and all-but-necessary Internet for the summer.
posted by Wordshore at 12:15 PM on June 19, 2017 [6 favorites]
Fail to get seat in election, get shoved in the lords and installed as minster in the government anyway. Isn't British democracy marvelous.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:09 PM on June 19, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:09 PM on June 19, 2017 [6 favorites]
I spent part of the weekend at an event - one of many in my area alone - in honour of Jo Cox, with people I didn't know, lots of children running around, lots of sun, lots of local focus, lots of good vibes and a great sense that goddam it, together we can make the unacceptable, unacceptable.
It didn't unknot everything, but by God it reconnected me with the knowledge that politics is people. Politics isn't sitting at my Twitter feed drowning in despair.
Memo to self: get out there, get connected, do small things.
posted by Devonian at 3:21 PM on June 19, 2017 [15 favorites]
It didn't unknot everything, but by God it reconnected me with the knowledge that politics is people. Politics isn't sitting at my Twitter feed drowning in despair.
Memo to self: get out there, get connected, do small things.
posted by Devonian at 3:21 PM on June 19, 2017 [15 favorites]
We had one in Seven Dials, Brighton. Three bands played for free, and lots of local businesses chucked in little raffle prizes. We had a bring a dish which went excellently, and people contributed with open hearts.
It's like the most social form of socialism.
posted by jaduncan at 2:15 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's like the most social form of socialism.
posted by jaduncan at 2:15 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
So I see some brilliant mind has decided to put Tommy Robinson on some breakfast program.
Your country is out of control.
posted by Yowser at 2:41 AM on June 20, 2017
Your country is out of control.
posted by Yowser at 2:41 AM on June 20, 2017
Your country is out of control.
Not really in that respect, random Islamist and/or far right idiots aside. It's just that Piers Morgan continues to be a shameless stain on the body politic.
posted by jaduncan at 3:02 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not really in that respect, random Islamist and/or far right idiots aside. It's just that Piers Morgan continues to be a shameless stain on the body politic.
posted by jaduncan at 3:02 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
Your country is out of control.
Think what you will.
That aside, no fan of Piers Moron, but... 'You’re stirring up hatred like a bigoted lunatic': Piers Morgan in extraordinary row with ex-EDL leader Tommy Robinson
posted by Mister Bijou at 4:22 AM on June 20, 2017
Think what you will.
That aside, no fan of Piers Moron, but... 'You’re stirring up hatred like a bigoted lunatic': Piers Morgan in extraordinary row with ex-EDL leader Tommy Robinson
posted by Mister Bijou at 4:22 AM on June 20, 2017
Fail to get seat in election, get shoved in the lords and installed as minster in the government anyway. Isn't British democracy marvelous.
In this case, the democratic implications are even worse that you might casually imagine - because the MP in question:
1. Was already, as of 2016, active as an MSP having been (undemocratically) given the role as a list MP after being rejected by his constituents.
2. Opted to abandon that position anyway when the lure of a seat at Westminster came along.
3. Failed to get elected at the general election - as noted.
4. Was instead, undemocratically, elected as a lord - meaning that he is now unable to fulfil his MSP role.
5. Is being parachuted in as a minister of a Tory-run body called "The Scottish Office" - which seeks to administer Scotland - undemocratically - in the manner of a colony.
6. Will be replaced as an MSP, undemocratically and without a bi-election, by another Tory - since he is a list candidate.
posted by rongorongo at 4:50 AM on June 20, 2017 [6 favorites]
In this case, the democratic implications are even worse that you might casually imagine - because the MP in question:
1. Was already, as of 2016, active as an MSP having been (undemocratically) given the role as a list MP after being rejected by his constituents.
2. Opted to abandon that position anyway when the lure of a seat at Westminster came along.
3. Failed to get elected at the general election - as noted.
4. Was instead, undemocratically, elected as a lord - meaning that he is now unable to fulfil his MSP role.
5. Is being parachuted in as a minister of a Tory-run body called "The Scottish Office" - which seeks to administer Scotland - undemocratically - in the manner of a colony.
6. Will be replaced as an MSP, undemocratically and without a bi-election, by another Tory - since he is a list candidate.
posted by rongorongo at 4:50 AM on June 20, 2017 [6 favorites]
Interesting results from Pew Research Center:
Post-Brexit and in the age of Trump, sharp increase in favorability of EU among Europeans.
After Brexit, the proportion of Europeans wanting to leave the EU is much lower than the crazification factor.
Perception that economic situation is improving throughout EU (including UK, but excluding Greece).
So thanks, Theresa May and Donald Trump! You may have played a significant role in stabilizing the EU.
posted by sour cream at 4:58 AM on June 20, 2017 [8 favorites]
Post-Brexit and in the age of Trump, sharp increase in favorability of EU among Europeans.
After Brexit, the proportion of Europeans wanting to leave the EU is much lower than the crazification factor.
Perception that economic situation is improving throughout EU (including UK, but excluding Greece).
So thanks, Theresa May and Donald Trump! You may have played a significant role in stabilizing the EU.
posted by sour cream at 4:58 AM on June 20, 2017 [8 favorites]
So.State Opening of Parliament tomorrow and one presumes that Her Maj is busy rehersing her bracing talk to the nation announcing what her strong and stable government will do on our behalf.
Let's check in on the Tory negotiations with the DUP, shall we? As of ten minutes ago...
David Blevins;
Sky sources: DUP urging government to give "greater focus" to negotiations. "Party can't be taken for granted." 1/2
Sky sources: "Negotiations haven't proceeded in a way that DUP would have expected." 2/2
My god, the EU negotiators must be quaking in their chaise longues.
posted by Devonian at 8:17 AM on June 20, 2017 [7 favorites]
Let's check in on the Tory negotiations with the DUP, shall we? As of ten minutes ago...
David Blevins;
Sky sources: DUP urging government to give "greater focus" to negotiations. "Party can't be taken for granted." 1/2
Sky sources: "Negotiations haven't proceeded in a way that DUP would have expected." 2/2
My god, the EU negotiators must be quaking in their chaise longues.
posted by Devonian at 8:17 AM on June 20, 2017 [7 favorites]
Your country is out of control.
A right-wing government which is trying to get important legislation through without reasonable scrutiny? A leader who has isolationist tendencies and, to put it mildly, is an incident waiting to happen every time a member of the public is encountered? A strangely-haired ageing New York born politician who spews insults and creates chaos wherever he goes? Large parts of the population - especially the voting population - pretty much under the influence and cognitive control of a few right-wing media outlets? Which also stokes up an atmosphere that makes acts of violence far more likely? An oft-divided and endlessly relitigating centre, centre-left, left of centre and far left political spectrum? Neighboring countries alarmed, bewildered and angry at the rhetoric coming out of government? All this and a heatwave causing problems to transport and other infrastructure?
Yes, the [UK | US]* is out of control.
* delete as applicable
posted by Wordshore at 10:43 AM on June 20, 2017 [11 favorites]
A right-wing government which is trying to get important legislation through without reasonable scrutiny? A leader who has isolationist tendencies and, to put it mildly, is an incident waiting to happen every time a member of the public is encountered? A strangely-haired ageing New York born politician who spews insults and creates chaos wherever he goes? Large parts of the population - especially the voting population - pretty much under the influence and cognitive control of a few right-wing media outlets? Which also stokes up an atmosphere that makes acts of violence far more likely? An oft-divided and endlessly relitigating centre, centre-left, left of centre and far left political spectrum? Neighboring countries alarmed, bewildered and angry at the rhetoric coming out of government? All this and a heatwave causing problems to transport and other infrastructure?
Yes, the [UK | US]* is out of control.
* delete as applicable
posted by Wordshore at 10:43 AM on June 20, 2017 [11 favorites]
I have a large position in the political betting markets. If they don't swear in as a Conservative minority government I lose £800. It is a sign of my almost complete lack of confidence that a small but irrational part of my brain is slightly unsure if I should accept a small loss and liquidate it now (I'm not going to, but I can't quite believe I even have to consider this level of doubt over basic competence as a factor).
posted by jaduncan at 11:27 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by jaduncan at 11:27 AM on June 20, 2017 [1 favorite]
When was the last time there was a Monarch's Speech from a truly minority government (neither coalition nor with a confidence and supply agreement)?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 AM on June 20, 2017
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 AM on June 20, 2017
When was the last time there was a Monarch's Speech from a truly minority government (neither coalition nor with a confidence and supply agreement)?
1974
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:20 PM on June 20, 2017 [4 favorites]
1974
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:20 PM on June 20, 2017 [4 favorites]
Prof John Curtice, the man who won the election: it’s wonderful to prove the world wrong
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:13 PM on June 20, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:13 PM on June 20, 2017 [2 favorites]
Great one from Dennis Skinner this year. Looked like Black Rod almost cracked up.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:13 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:13 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
Her Maj wears hat in EU blue with gold thingies.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:34 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:34 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
Whose idea was Day of Rage? That's the dumbest shit I've ever heard of. If it wasn't a right-wing agent provocateur, it was a fucking idiot.
posted by Yowser at 5:37 AM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Yowser at 5:37 AM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
Whose idea was Day of Rage? That's the dumbest shit I've ever heard of.
Looking at the weather forecast, it should probably be renamed Day of Dehydration.
posted by Wordshore at 5:40 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
Looking at the weather forecast, it should probably be renamed Day of Dehydration.
posted by Wordshore at 5:40 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
You know, I'm fairly sure Her Maj is a Leaver. Not that we'll ever get confirmation one way or the other.
And since she actually has two brain cells to rub together, even if she wants us to leave she'd not want it like this.
You could just as well argue she's wearing Tory Blue for the occasion, though I doubt that's the case either.
posted by tel3path at 5:41 AM on June 21, 2017
And since she actually has two brain cells to rub together, even if she wants us to leave she'd not want it like this.
You could just as well argue she's wearing Tory Blue for the occasion, though I doubt that's the case either.
posted by tel3path at 5:41 AM on June 21, 2017
But... she had to know how this would look. She wouldn't do anything inadvertently.
More significant is that she's supposed to be in her traditional robe and crown and she has totally dressed down.
You could explain that away too - she might have got too old to manage wearing a heavy crown on her head, or it's too hot especially at her age.
But like, couldn't they have substituted a Disney tiara or something?
A statement is being made, but the plausible deniability is strong.
posted by tel3path at 5:44 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
More significant is that she's supposed to be in her traditional robe and crown and she has totally dressed down.
You could explain that away too - she might have got too old to manage wearing a heavy crown on her head, or it's too hot especially at her age.
But like, couldn't they have substituted a Disney tiara or something?
A statement is being made, but the plausible deniability is strong.
posted by tel3path at 5:44 AM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
Okay, I gather the dress-down approach was preplanned months ago because it was set to be a reduced-pomp occasion.
But of all the things you could just sorta unconsciously decide to put on.
Also, she changed into a different outfit for Ascot so apparently this choice of outfit was NOT because she wanted to hotfoot it to Ascot once the day's bullshit was done.
posted by tel3path at 1:10 PM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
But of all the things you could just sorta unconsciously decide to put on.
Also, she changed into a different outfit for Ascot so apparently this choice of outfit was NOT because she wanted to hotfoot it to Ascot once the day's bullshit was done.
posted by tel3path at 1:10 PM on June 21, 2017 [2 favorites]
Not sure that was planned months ago - I heard someone on t'wireless say on the day after the election that 'I imagine we'll have to de-bling the Queen's Speech now'. However, knowing how these things work, I guess there were plans A, B and C in place to cover the possibilities. Improvisation is frowned upon.
It's going to be interesting. In normal times, one would expect Labour to be lobbing grenades over the lines at every opportunity, in the hope of precipitating a crisis that would trigger a meltdown. But we're negotiating for our lives in Brussels. Plus, we'll have to deal with whatever crises are triggered by the mad chimpanzee at the controls in the late colonies. The international world of politics and economics doesn't go on hold just because we're incapable of electing a competent whelk stall owner. So, if you attack the minority government, are you going to be seen as torpedoing the country?
Probably, unless Corbyn and friends (old and new) can hold up a flag worth rallying to.
As Jason Tavener sang, it's a nowhere nothin' fuck-up - and history will know where to lay the blame. Scant comfort, right now.
posted by Devonian at 2:34 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
It's going to be interesting. In normal times, one would expect Labour to be lobbing grenades over the lines at every opportunity, in the hope of precipitating a crisis that would trigger a meltdown. But we're negotiating for our lives in Brussels. Plus, we'll have to deal with whatever crises are triggered by the mad chimpanzee at the controls in the late colonies. The international world of politics and economics doesn't go on hold just because we're incapable of electing a competent whelk stall owner. So, if you attack the minority government, are you going to be seen as torpedoing the country?
Probably, unless Corbyn and friends (old and new) can hold up a flag worth rallying to.
As Jason Tavener sang, it's a nowhere nothin' fuck-up - and history will know where to lay the blame. Scant comfort, right now.
posted by Devonian at 2:34 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
The consensus of the royal fashion blogs is that the Queen was definitely trolling with her EU flag hat, although possibly because they made her come down to London during Ascot.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:39 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:39 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Queen was... let's see... 14 years old during the Blitz. I wonder how that made her feel about the EU.
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 PM on June 21, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Queen was... let's see... 14 years old during the Blitz. I wonder how that made her feel about the EU.
And she snuck out of the Palace on VE Day to celebrate in the streets, having spent most of her teens touring bomb sites. I'd imagine she has a pretty strong aversion to brinksmanship and political breakdown, given the results last century. But who knows, really.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:56 PM on June 21, 2017 [9 favorites]
And she snuck out of the Palace on VE Day to celebrate in the streets, having spent most of her teens touring bomb sites. I'd imagine she has a pretty strong aversion to brinksmanship and political breakdown, given the results last century. But who knows, really.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:56 PM on June 21, 2017 [9 favorites]
More significant is that she's supposed to be in her traditional robe and crown and she has totally dressed down.
I think she only bothers getting the good robes dry-cleaned if somebody commands a majority, or at least a coalition. Harold Wilson's minority government in the 70s got the 'casual Friday' ensemble as well.
posted by the latin mouse at 2:13 AM on June 22, 2017 [7 favorites]
I think she only bothers getting the good robes dry-cleaned if somebody commands a majority, or at least a coalition. Harold Wilson's minority government in the 70s got the 'casual Friday' ensemble as well.
posted by the latin mouse at 2:13 AM on June 22, 2017 [7 favorites]
That was then, this is now?
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:54 AM on June 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
“Prior to the Industrial Revolution, and indeed for some years after it, most workers were self-employed or worked in small businesses. There were no unions. Hours were flexible, depending on what work was needed to collect the crops, milk the cows or put bread on the table. Work was artisanal, task-based, divisible.”Low wages are 'return to pre-industrial Britain', says Bank of England economist
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:54 AM on June 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
Philip Hammond concedes Brexit transition period could be 4 years: "When you buy a house you don't move all your stuff in on the first day."
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:34 AM on June 22, 2017
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:34 AM on June 22, 2017
> "When you buy a house you don't move all your stuff in on the first day."
You ... don't?
posted by kyrademon at 5:03 AM on June 22, 2017 [8 favorites]
You ... don't?
posted by kyrademon at 5:03 AM on June 22, 2017 [8 favorites]
"When you buy a house you don't move all your stuff in on the first day."
The first day? Maybe. Maybe not. Be that as it may, don't most people do it in one day?
Meanwhile... It's payback time as Spreadsheet Phil morphs into Freewheelin' Phil
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:16 AM on June 22, 2017
The first day? Maybe. Maybe not. Be that as it may, don't most people do it in one day?
Meanwhile... It's payback time as Spreadsheet Phil morphs into Freewheelin' Phil
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:16 AM on June 22, 2017
The first day? Maybe. Maybe not. Be that as it may, don't most people do it in one day?
And if not, if you have a year before moving, you'd at least come up with some kind of plan, no?
posted by sour cream at 5:44 AM on June 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
And if not, if you have a year before moving, you'd at least come up with some kind of plan, no?
posted by sour cream at 5:44 AM on June 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
> "When you buy a house you don't move all your stuff in on the first day."
You ... don't?
Of course you don't, if you're worth £10 million and have a couple of houses already. It takes time for the interior designers, decorators and builders to get it just right and furnished.
Why, how do the poor people do it?
posted by Devonian at 9:20 AM on June 22, 2017 [13 favorites]
You ... don't?
Of course you don't, if you're worth £10 million and have a couple of houses already. It takes time for the interior designers, decorators and builders to get it just right and furnished.
Why, how do the poor people do it?
posted by Devonian at 9:20 AM on June 22, 2017 [13 favorites]
Of course you don't move your stuff in on the first day! What you do is: your landlord tells you they're selling the place, so you spend a few weeks scrambling madly around to find somewhere else, and then you do find somewhere else but the letting agents insist that you take it now or lose it, so now you've got three weeks of overlap where you're paying double rent and you've shelled out an extra deposit so now you're at the end of your overdraft and your friends with cars are all fed up helping you move after the last fourteen times and you can't afford to pay them. So, you drag all your stuff over a bit at a time in carrier bags or pushing it on wheely chairs or in the back of taxis when you can afford them, in the time you've got between shifts.
See, Philip Hammond knows just how it feels.
posted by Catseye at 9:35 AM on June 22, 2017 [14 favorites]
See, Philip Hammond knows just how it feels.
posted by Catseye at 9:35 AM on June 22, 2017 [14 favorites]
Catseye, the parallels between my shitty housing situation and our bullshite political debacle are pretty well encapsulated by that description. Thanks.
posted by ambrosen at 10:06 AM on June 22, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 10:06 AM on June 22, 2017 [3 favorites]
Low wages are 'return to pre-industrial Britain', says Bank of England economist
That's... one way to quietly admit industrial capitalism is slowly disintegrating and eating itself as it does, I guess?
posted by Happy Dave at 11:08 AM on June 22, 2017 [7 favorites]
That's... one way to quietly admit industrial capitalism is slowly disintegrating and eating itself as it does, I guess?
posted by Happy Dave at 11:08 AM on June 22, 2017 [7 favorites]
In case you didn't watch it, Channel 4 News have investigated potential Tory electoral fraud and data protection issues.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:46 PM on June 22, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:46 PM on June 22, 2017 [2 favorites]
Oh I just had a horrible late night thought
You know how everything unthinkable has so far happened?
What's unthinkable now? That Theresa May could now be successful at anything at all ever, including putting the bins out on a Thursday or brewing coffee without incident.
Logically, the next thing to happen is that T.Mayz will have a sudden and meteoric rise to success, propelled into space like a lolcat by its own fart.
We are all so very fucked.
posted by tel3path at 4:39 PM on June 22, 2017 [2 favorites]
You know how everything unthinkable has so far happened?
What's unthinkable now? That Theresa May could now be successful at anything at all ever, including putting the bins out on a Thursday or brewing coffee without incident.
Logically, the next thing to happen is that T.Mayz will have a sudden and meteoric rise to success, propelled into space like a lolcat by its own fart.
We are all so very fucked.
posted by tel3path at 4:39 PM on June 22, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think the most important thing when buying a house is doing your due diligence ahead of time to make sure it is not a stupid idea that will ruin you. How fast you move in is much lower importance.
posted by ckape at 8:54 PM on June 22, 2017 [8 favorites]
posted by ckape at 8:54 PM on June 22, 2017 [8 favorites]
Today is the first anniversary of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:41 AM on June 23, 2017
posted by Mister Bijou at 2:41 AM on June 23, 2017
How Philip Hammond Thinks House-Moving Works has become the new How Amber Rudd Thinks Monopoly Works. Says a lot about the current state of our capitalist housing-crisis-ridden economy that the people running the place don't follow how either thing works.
posted by Catseye at 10:07 AM on June 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 10:07 AM on June 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
Today is the first anniversary of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.
/idle thought - I wonder if enough of the old fuckers who voted for it have dropped dead since to make a difference? Probably not.
posted by Artw at 11:18 AM on June 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
/idle thought - I wonder if enough of the old fuckers who voted for it have dropped dead since to make a difference? Probably not.
posted by Artw at 11:18 AM on June 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
The shamelessness of the UK press truly knows no bounds.
Daily Express: "Did EU regulation mean deadly cladding was used on Grenfell Tower?"
Of course, as anyone familiar with Betteridge's law of headlines knows (and anyone else can confirm within minutes), the answer is no.
But the damage is done. The implication is that, of course, it is the EU that is responsible for this home-made desaster. Who else?
And as absurd as this might be, it is but a sneak preview of things to come.
Whether soft or hard Brexit, it is becoming painfully obvious that this is the biggest self-inflicted wound for any nation in a long, long time. Hard Brexit will be an economic disaster and soft Brexit will lead to the status quo except for no say in anything, so what's the point. And yet, this will surely not keep the British press from blaming everything on the EU.
At this point, I think it is in the best interest of the EU to usher the UK out the door, and keep the door shut for as long as the cancer that is the British press isn't healed.
posted by sour cream at 1:51 PM on June 23, 2017 [3 favorites]
Daily Express: "Did EU regulation mean deadly cladding was used on Grenfell Tower?"
Of course, as anyone familiar with Betteridge's law of headlines knows (and anyone else can confirm within minutes), the answer is no.
But the damage is done. The implication is that, of course, it is the EU that is responsible for this home-made desaster. Who else?
And as absurd as this might be, it is but a sneak preview of things to come.
Whether soft or hard Brexit, it is becoming painfully obvious that this is the biggest self-inflicted wound for any nation in a long, long time. Hard Brexit will be an economic disaster and soft Brexit will lead to the status quo except for no say in anything, so what's the point. And yet, this will surely not keep the British press from blaming everything on the EU.
At this point, I think it is in the best interest of the EU to usher the UK out the door, and keep the door shut for as long as the cancer that is the British press isn't healed.
posted by sour cream at 1:51 PM on June 23, 2017 [3 favorites]
In todays WTF:
Leading Brexit campaigner says 'vacuous' referendum should never have been called
Leading Brexiteer Gisela Stuart has described the EU referendum an “abuse of democratic process” and said she would rather it had never been called.
The former Labour MP and co-chair of Vote Leave said voters were faced with a “vacuous” choice last June and the handling of the fallout from the poll was “not good democracy”.
She added that she stood by her support for Britain quitting the bloc, but said there was no accountability on either side of the argument once the result had been announced and the campaign groups had disbanded.
I've never been able to tell if Stuart is a Labour equivalent of a blue dog Democrat that she endorses some right wing policies while being in Labour or is she an ultra left winger who sees the EU as a failed neo-liberal experiment?
posted by PenDevil at 2:01 PM on June 23, 2017
Leading Brexit campaigner says 'vacuous' referendum should never have been called
Leading Brexiteer Gisela Stuart has described the EU referendum an “abuse of democratic process” and said she would rather it had never been called.
The former Labour MP and co-chair of Vote Leave said voters were faced with a “vacuous” choice last June and the handling of the fallout from the poll was “not good democracy”.
She added that she stood by her support for Britain quitting the bloc, but said there was no accountability on either side of the argument once the result had been announced and the campaign groups had disbanded.
I've never been able to tell if Stuart is a Labour equivalent of a blue dog Democrat that she endorses some right wing policies while being in Labour or is she an ultra left winger who sees the EU as a failed neo-liberal experiment?
posted by PenDevil at 2:01 PM on June 23, 2017
Miss Stuart claimed that a Kerry victory over President George W. Bush would prompt "victory celebrations among those who want to destroy liberal democracies".
Writing in The House Magazine, the parliamentary journal, the Labour MP for Birmingham Edgbaston wrote: "More terrorists and suicide bombers would step forward to become martyrs in their quest to destroy the West."
In another dig at the Democratic challenger, she wrote: "You know where you stand with George and, in today's world, that's much better than rudderless leaders who drift with the prevailing wind."
posted by howfar at 2:31 PM on June 23, 2017
What she is, is a fucking idiot.
posted by howfar at 2:31 PM on June 23, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by howfar at 2:31 PM on June 23, 2017 [7 favorites]
Brexit: Andrea Leadsom says broadcasters need to be patriotic[real]
Tory MP Andrea Leadsom says broadcasters need to be more patriotic while reporting the UK's negotiations with the EU.
She told Newsnight's Emily Maitlis that the country needs to pull together.
Leadsom apparently a secret fan of Pravda there.
posted by jaduncan at 11:33 PM on June 23, 2017 [3 favorites]
Spontaneous chants of "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" break out all over Glastonbury.
posted by Diablevert at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Diablevert at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think the problem that a lot of people have with Gisela Stuart, née Gschaider, is that she came to the UK from her native Germany at 19, settled here, and ended up helping lead a campaign one of the central aims of which was to stop immigration from the rest of Europe.
posted by Major Clanger at 5:41 AM on June 24, 2017
posted by Major Clanger at 5:41 AM on June 24, 2017
Wordshore, it was written in letters cut out of white painted hardboard, wasn't it? Not, for example, 200kgs of illicitly obtained Blue Veinney?
posted by ambrosen at 7:49 AM on June 24, 2017
posted by ambrosen at 7:49 AM on June 24, 2017
I chose the name of that cheese just because it was local to Cerne Abbas, then realised there was a nob joke to be made, then saw this on the Wikipedia page: Local myth describes how in years gone by, due to its supposed illegal nature, Blue Vinny would be left on the doorstep of those who ordered it on the black market.
posted by ambrosen at 7:51 AM on June 24, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 7:51 AM on June 24, 2017 [4 favorites]
Corbyn draws biggest crowd at Glasto since the Stones.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:01 AM on June 24, 2017 [6 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:01 AM on June 24, 2017 [6 favorites]
Lord Buckethead: 'A pain au chocolat could negotiate Brexit better than Theresa May'
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:26 AM on June 24, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:26 AM on June 24, 2017 [5 favorites]
Irony is far too weak a word to describe this tweet from Unflushable Turd.
"Why should we pay the BBC licence fee just so they can promote @JeremyCorbyn? Outrageous."
posted by Devonian at 12:26 PM on June 24, 2017 [4 favorites]
"Why should we pay the BBC licence fee just so they can promote @JeremyCorbyn? Outrageous."
posted by Devonian at 12:26 PM on June 24, 2017 [4 favorites]
"Why should we pay the BBC licence fee just so they can promote @JeremyCorbyn? Outrageous."
Should start with an audit on how many times the UKIP leadership got interviewed on BBC and compare that to the Greens despite them having about the same levels of support.
posted by PenDevil at 11:49 PM on June 24, 2017 [3 favorites]
Should start with an audit on how many times the UKIP leadership got interviewed on BBC and compare that to the Greens despite them having about the same levels of support.
posted by PenDevil at 11:49 PM on June 24, 2017 [3 favorites]
Despite knowing it's supposed to be to the tune of Seven Nation Army, every time I see the "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" chants mentioned in text, my brain wants to put it to the tune of "Oh Dr Beeching", which makes NO FUCKING SENSE.
posted by the latin mouse at 11:54 PM on June 24, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by the latin mouse at 11:54 PM on June 24, 2017 [3 favorites]
Two years of young people’s changing voting habits:
According to analysis by Ipsos MORI of how people voted, the election saw the highest youth turnout in 25 years. It is estimated that 64 per cent of registered voters in both the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups turned out...Journalists’ lack of curiosity about Corbyn was professional malpractice:
According to analysis by Ipsos MORI of how people voted, the election saw the highest youth turnout in 25 years. It is estimated that 64 per cent of registered voters in both the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups turned out..
Duffy suggests we, “shouldn’t have been as surprised at that as we have been”, because turnout was so similar to that of the EU referendum. He suggests that, rather than election fatigue, young people are getting used to turning out due to the number of votes there have been recently.
"We have in some ways habituated young people into voting by having a series of political events."
The issue is not that they did not call the election properly—very few did, including those involved—but that they have spent the last two years either dismissing or lampooning one of the most interesting periods in recent political history, rather than trying to understand it...posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:11 PM on June 25, 2017 [7 favorites]
From the beginning many cast his supporters as swivel-eyed Trots and naïve students. The party members that had emphatically elected him twice over were not to be taken seriously. They were out of touch.
Just one visit to any Corbyn rally during the leadership campaigns revealed how achingly normal his base is. Many were life-long Labour members who were tired of being taken for granted and felt a course correction was due. They had families and workmates. I thought: they must represent something. This was not a cult of personality or a perverse putsch.
The second great failure of journalism was the failure to expand the gaze from Corbyn, the individual, to broader forces and places. Left challenges had, after all, been erupting across the west. Bernie Sanders, Syrzia, Melenchon, Podemos, the Green-Left coalitions in Portugal and Holland are all indications that electorates are realigning. That didn’t make this inevitable in Britain, but it made it a possibility. A possibility some wilfully ignored.
I still get the feeling a large number of Labour voters continue to vote Labour because they believe if Corbyn wins the PM job he will scrap Brexit, when Corbyn and his supporters are pretty much on board with it happening.
posted by PenDevil at 1:42 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by PenDevil at 1:42 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
The Guardian: Tories and the DUP reach £1bn deal to prop up minority government
The Democratic Unionist party has agreed to support Theresa May’s minority government through a confidence and supply deal worth more than £1bn in extra funding to Northern Ireland over two years.
Under the terms of the deal, which will ensure the DUP’s support for a vote this week on the Conservatives’ Queen’s speech, the pension triple lock and winter fuel payments will stay in place. Both policies were under threat in the Conservative manifesto.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 5:03 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
The Democratic Unionist party has agreed to support Theresa May’s minority government through a confidence and supply deal worth more than £1bn in extra funding to Northern Ireland over two years.
Under the terms of the deal, which will ensure the DUP’s support for a vote this week on the Conservatives’ Queen’s speech, the pension triple lock and winter fuel payments will stay in place. Both policies were under threat in the Conservative manifesto.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 5:03 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
Jesus. That's outright theft.
posted by Artw at 5:31 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 5:31 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
Extra funding for NI...
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:35 AM on June 26, 2017
An extra £400m for infrastructure over two yearsThat's nice. I guess people in England, Wales and Scotland will be thrilled to bits their fellow citizens across the Irish Channel have been thus blessed.
An extra £150m for broadband over two years
An extra £100m over two years for health and education
An extra £200m over two years for health service transformation
An extra £100m over five years to tackle deprivation
An extra £50m over five years for mental health.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:35 AM on June 26, 2017
Suprised they didn't just drop it directly in DUP pockets, thought no doubt it'll find its way there somehow.
posted by Artw at 5:40 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:40 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
That'll just about cover the costs of the Renewable Heat Incentive, which is nice.
posted by dng at 6:04 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by dng at 6:04 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
Suggested new slogan for Labour: "We send the DUP £3,846,153.84 a week*, let's fund our NHS instead."
*it is apparently possible to accurately cost these. That's just over 8,500 nurse salaries, fact fans.
posted by jaduncan at 6:16 AM on June 26, 2017 [4 favorites]
*it is apparently possible to accurately cost these. That's just over 8,500 nurse salaries, fact fans.
posted by jaduncan at 6:16 AM on June 26, 2017 [4 favorites]
To be fair, NI citizens really do need the money compared to other regions.
Not that they'll actually get it. But they need it.
posted by tel3path at 6:31 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not that they'll actually get it. But they need it.
posted by tel3path at 6:31 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
More than, say, North Wales? The problem here isn't extra funding for deprived areas (I'm all in favour), it's the targeting of a bribe for political reasons.
posted by jaduncan at 6:34 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by jaduncan at 6:34 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
A hundred million pounds for an MP is much more expensive than the cash for questions days. Yet another way the private sector is more efficient I suppose.
posted by dng at 6:37 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by dng at 6:37 AM on June 26, 2017 [2 favorites]
They'll be bringing back rotten boroughs next. Much easier to maintain
posted by dng at 6:41 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by dng at 6:41 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
Given that HMG will no longer publish stats on the most deprived areas of the UK as a whle, I'm going to have to make an ironic choice. Eurostat have looked at the richest and most deprived areas of Northern Europe (2011 data, admittedly), taking purchasing parity into account.
Here's the UK data:
Region, % GDP per Capita, GDP per Capita,
West Wales 64 16800
Cornwall & Isles of Scilly 64 16200
Durham and Tees Valley 71 17900
Lincolnshire 74 18500
South Yorkshire 75 18700
Shropshire and Staffs 77 19300
Lancashire 78 19600
Northern Ireland 78 19700
East Yorks & North Lincs 80 20100
These are ordered, so I'm not sure that I'd agree that NI is uniquely needy. Why won't that funding be going to Wales? Well, because it's got Labour/Plaid MPs. That's pretty corrupt, IMO; openly directing funds to reward a government's political supporters rather than on the basis of need is pretty banana republic.
Apologies for the formatting, I don't think Mefi has support for tabs/spacing.
posted by jaduncan at 7:01 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
Here's the UK data:
Region, % GDP per Capita, GDP per Capita,
West Wales 64 16800
Cornwall & Isles of Scilly 64 16200
Durham and Tees Valley 71 17900
Lincolnshire 74 18500
South Yorkshire 75 18700
Shropshire and Staffs 77 19300
Lancashire 78 19600
Northern Ireland 78 19700
East Yorks & North Lincs 80 20100
These are ordered, so I'm not sure that I'd agree that NI is uniquely needy. Why won't that funding be going to Wales? Well, because it's got Labour/Plaid MPs. That's pretty corrupt, IMO; openly directing funds to reward a government's political supporters rather than on the basis of need is pretty banana republic.
Apologies for the formatting, I don't think Mefi has support for tabs/spacing.
posted by jaduncan at 7:01 AM on June 26, 2017 [3 favorites]
> Apologies for the formatting, I don't think Mefi has support for tabs/spacing.
<pre> is your friend
posted by farlukar at 8:10 AM on June 26, 2017 [4 favorites]
<pre> is your friend
Region % GDP per Capita GDP per Capita West Wales 64 16800 Cornwall & Isles of Scilly 64 16200 Durham and Tees Valley 71 17900 Lincolnshire 74 18500 South Yorkshire 75 18700 Shropshire and Staffs 77 19300 Lancashire 78 19600 Northern Ireland 78 19700 East Yorks & North Lincs 80 20100( I know, new thread; I just don't want to clutter that with dupes right away)
posted by farlukar at 8:10 AM on June 26, 2017 [4 favorites]
Godamnit. Thank you, farlukar. Noted for future.
posted by jaduncan at 8:28 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by jaduncan at 8:28 AM on June 26, 2017 [1 favorite]
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I've taken Friday off as a mental health day. There is no way I can wake up in the UK after yet another election (anywhere) and even think about writing my TPS reports or whatever. I've learnt.
posted by iamkimiam at 4:15 PM on June 7, 2017 [14 favorites]