Struggle for the Heart of Dixie
December 12, 2017 5:02 AM   Subscribe

One month ago, Alabama's sleepy special election to replace Jeff Sessions in the U.S. Senate was rocked by bombshell underage sexual assault allegations against far-right firebrand Roy Moore, lifting Democratic challenger Doug Jones into an unthinkable lead. But after state leaders resisted calls for Moore to drop out, GOP opposition eroded, with the most toxic elements of the party eventually giving full-throated endorsement (and $$$) to the twice-impeached theocrat. Polls showed Moore rebounding, but the unique confluence of scandal, tribalism, enthusiasm, and high stakes in this deep red state makes turnout impossible to predict. Polls are opening now, and close at 7PM central time -- stay tuned to see if the Yellowhammer state elects a radical child abuser... or the first Democrat in a quarter century.

Previous thread with more background on the race

Highlights from Doug Jones' stirring Dec. 5th "Season of Opportunity" speech - [full video]

Indivisible guide on ways to help get out the vote -- no matter where you are

FiveThirtyEight: Everything You Need To Know About Alabama’s Senate Election (liveblog to come later)

Anti-Moore Republicans:

Condoleezza Rice: Alabama Senate election one of history's most significant

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) donates $100 to Jones campaign: "Country over Party"

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) refuses to vote for Moore, says "Alabama deserves better"

General Kelly lieutenant Lee Busby launches independent write-in bid

Democratic web ad encourages Republicans to write in Alabama head coach Nick Saban

Other news:

Project Veritas tries and fails to ensnare the Washington Post with a fake Moore accuser

Twitter thread sheds light on Doug Jones' 90s-era crusade against child predators: "Doug Jones has been attempting to rid the world of men like Roy Moore for a very, very long time."

Pro-Trump group has 12-year-old girl interview Roy Moore... followed shortly by a speaker at a Moore event saying he accidentally went with Moore to a brothel with child prostitutes. See also Moore's history of siding with sexual predators.

Textbook co-authored by Roy Moore in 2011 says women shouldn’t run for office. Oh, and that co-author? Accused of pursuing a 15-year-old. See the LA Times on evangelicals and the child marriage problem.

Father protesting outside Roy Moore rally talks about losing his gay daughter at age of 23 to suicide. "I was anti-gay myself. I said bad things to my daughter, which I regret."

In Mobile, Going Door-to-Door Against Roy Moore - Jones volunteers knock on 300,000 doors, make 1.2 million phone calls - #PostcardsToVoters successfully reaches every Democratic household in Alabama

SurveyMonkey shows how different interpretations of poll data lead to widely differing results

Judge orders state to preserve voting records -- but the state supreme court overturns! See also Alabama's shameful recent history of voter suppression since the Supreme Court's pivotal Shelby County v. Holder decision that gutted the Voting Rights Act.

Why Democrats win even if they lose in Alabama
posted by Rhaomi (1269 comments total) 110 users marked this as a favorite
 
Wow, this is a great post--thank you.
posted by box at 5:05 AM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


"Twice-impeached theocrat" is a fine descriptor for Moore. Fine indeed.
posted by zardoz at 5:16 AM on December 12, 2017 [63 favorites]




Judge orders state to preserve voting records -- but the state supreme court overturns!

The most recent overturn part blows my fucking mind. "This is an emergency, your honour, if we are not able to delete the evidence in the next 48 hours, the stolen election is at stake!"

So we do the election, results come in, and then we get trickling out some questionable practices and stuff smells fishy...

"Nope, all records destroyed, no takebacks sorry!"

WTF?
posted by Meatbomb at 5:18 AM on December 12, 2017 [58 favorites]


Apologies, not to abuse edit:

In other criminal law issues, destroyed evidence is taken as assumed evidence in the favour of the opposing side, right? Why is similar principle not applicable here?
posted by Meatbomb at 5:20 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Just wanna urge my fellow Mefites to remember...

Whatever happens in Alabama today, this was close. Close enough that we have a platform to come back in two years with progressive candidates and try again, and we should, and we will.

But more importantly, this was close, and there are a lot of people in Alabama who are our allies in the resistance. A lot of black people who have been fighting this white supremacy bullshit their entire lives. And a lot of black people who can't vote because of voter suppression and have been denied a voice in their own government.

There are a lot of good people in Alabama who deserve our help and support and need us to keep showing up for them in the next fight and the next, and no matter what happens today, please don't write them off.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 5:21 AM on December 12, 2017 [190 favorites]


NPR is trying to make me pass out with anger this morning with their gentle coddling of these horrific anti-abortion voters.

A woman explained abortion to *her third grader* this morning and made her tell an npr reporter that they were against it. Then a pastor said Doug Jones “ wants to kill millions of people” that was the sum total of the morning commute report on the race!!
posted by rainydayfilms at 5:21 AM on December 12, 2017 [45 favorites]


Thanks for this. Had to turn off the AL election piece on Morning Edition as they were spending way too much time on extended quotes of evil bullshit before breakfast. There's only so much of that I can take before I just don't want to get out of bed.
posted by asperity at 5:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Yay! Thank you Rhaomi! And thanks for canvassing!
posted by nangar at 5:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Is it really impossible to predict? We're talking Alabama here.
posted by Bee'sWing at 5:24 AM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Unfortunately I have every confidence that goobers shall remain goobers and no amount of evidence to the contrary will have a significant effect. The ability to self-delude is almost inexhaustible. Hopefully Alabama proves me wrong...
posted by jim in austin at 5:32 AM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Is it really impossible to predict? We're talking Alabama here.

If you'll follow the link, you'll see that the polls currently have a seventeen point range, from Jones winning with a 9% lead to Moore winning with an 8% lead.
posted by Merus at 5:33 AM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


NYT Daily podcast had a reporter talking about Moore's history of putting the Ten Commandments in stone on courthouse lawns in defiance of federal orders - something they say that has given him a lot of longstanding credibility in evangelical circles

but as with the outside analysis of Atlanta's mayoral races (like the really unfortunately blamey and flat-out wrong op-ed Shaun King wrote in The Intercept), I imagine that it can only cover so much and people actually living in Alabama know and have known about a lot more than just that. the consistent theme in all 538 podcasts so far is that 'Moore is only one standard polling error away from losing' and that the polls thus far, with the exception of the WaPo and Fox polls that give Jones a more favorable position, have been pretty cruddy in the ways they've been obtaining their samples
posted by runt at 5:33 AM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Whatever happens in Alabama today, this was close. Close enough that we have a platform to come back in two years with progressive candidates and try again, and we should, and we will.

Not to throw cold water on this, but the Republican candidate was a creepy, super-racist stalker pedophile with extreme religious views. In pretty much any other state he'd lose in a landslide or have been forced to drop out of the election a long time ago. All of this has been public knowledge for weeks if not months if not years to his constituents.

If Moore gets elected to state office that says a hell of a lot about the values held by the people of Alabama. We already know that it is not a progressive state and its people have not been clamoring for a liberal Progressive to save them from the evil Republicans. They vote Republican. They are Republicans. And their party is endorsing Moore.

Whatever happens today, a significant portion of their electorate will still have voted for Moore. We can't fix them. Don't even try.
posted by zarq at 5:34 AM on December 12, 2017 [54 favorites]


For once, yes, it is that hard.

If Alabama Republicans had settled on Big Luther as their candidate, Doug Jones would have been a footnote to history and would've counted it as a success if he got within a 10% margin. Thanks to their insistence on having a candidate who touched children, disgraced the state Supreme Court twice, insists that God is the sovereign leader of America and carries enough baggage to fill a Greyhound bus, yes, this is instead a remarkably close race.

Alabama, like every state, contains its share of evolutionary throwbacks. But it also contains a lot of people who normally vote straight Republican who are looking at Roy Moore and thinking are you kidding me? every time he fires a bullet through his foot. The polls are all over the place. The voting machines and their retention policies are being fought over in court. Weird shit is in the air today.
posted by delfin at 5:35 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Also, I want to share this explainer from a former evangelical (and reluctant Left Behind expert) about how exactly evangelicals keep supporting people like Roy Moore and Donald Trump: they've convinced themselves that anyone who supports abortion is a baby-killer in league with Satan, aka literally the evillest people possible, and thus a mere child molester is a step up.
posted by Merus at 5:35 AM on December 12, 2017 [52 favorites]


My prediction? AL voter suppression carries the day for the GOP
posted by thelonius at 5:38 AM on December 12, 2017 [38 favorites]


If Moore gets elected to state office that says a hell of a lot about the values held by the people of Alabama.

If Moore gets elected, does it say anything about the values held by the people of Alabama that didn't vote for him? That worked hard for his opponent? I'm not trying to be snide, I really feel like I struggle with this impulse sometimes. But I don't feel like I'm ready for state residency on its own to mean very much on the level of individual humans besides state residency.
posted by penduluum at 5:39 AM on December 12, 2017 [50 favorites]


Is it really impossible to predict? We're talking Alabama here.

Polling is better than conventional wisdom and stereotypes. There's something to be said for actually asking a representative of voters what they're going to do.
posted by nangar at 5:40 AM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Btw, that 538 piece had county targets for Jones, if you really want to geek out during returns tonight.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:43 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


I'm cautiously optimistic. the last two years have been evidence for a very cynical perspective but there have been a lot of good people doing a lot of good work in the effort to turn that around. here's to hoping that the probabilistic engines of the universe have been tuned well enough to generate a better future for both the marginalized and the altruistic
posted by runt at 5:47 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


(I meant to say "a representative sample of voters".)
posted by nangar at 5:49 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I follow a couple people from Rose Emoji Twitter because they're amusing but I might have to unfollow because they can't shut up about how a Jones loss (which as far as I can tell they are actually hoping for, in order to prove their points) means that the Democrats are terribad awful corrupt evil neolib scum. Every time a reporter locates some misogynist troglodyte in a bar to interview they're like "SEE!! SEEEE!!!! This person would be a socialist for Reasons but instead they're voting for Moore because Democrats something something!!!" They're just as bad as the "I would literally eat excrement in order to own the libs" crowd.

And people wonder why I'm a little hesitant to sign up with the DSA. (I realize #notallDSA but what if #mylocalDSA? I'm afraid to go and find out.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [42 favorites]


If Moore gets elected, does it say anything about the values held by the people of Alabama that didn't vote for him? That worked hard for his opponent? I'm not trying to be snide, I really feel like I struggle with this impulse sometimes. But I don't feel like I'm ready for state residency on its own to mean very much on the level of individual humans besides state residency.

Every state has its share of racists, bigots, godbotherers, fanatics and dingbats. Every state has its share of good-hearted people fighting the good fight. Both of those are good to remember as we move forward from this sideshow. "Alabama" should not always be coupled with a derisive snort and a mental picture of Dogpatch.

On the other hand, the proportion of each of those is not a constant from place to place. The history of bigotry and suppression is not a constant. The undercurrent of belief that those old ways were the PROPER ways is not a constant. And the level of comfort I would feel being a minority, especially a visible one, in places like that is certainly not identical.

We should not paint everyone with the same brush, but we should also grade them honestly. A group of strong students can't pull the curve up all by themselves if the rest of the class just doesn't think.
posted by delfin at 5:54 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


looking at that 538 link Chrysostom helpfully provides, it looks like Fox News commissioned 2 polls with a deliberate aim to demonstrate big margins in Jones' favour.

they are outliers to the outliers.

could they really be that naked in their attempt to scare up the red vote?

re-reading the link, 538 trusts their methodology & they use cell-phones, .....hmmmm
posted by Wilder at 5:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


If Moore gets elected, does it say anything about the values held by the people of Alabama that didn't vote for him?

Yeah. They're outnumbered.
posted by zarq at 5:57 AM on December 12, 2017 [44 favorites]


Whatever happens today, a significant portion of their electorate will still have voted for Moore. We can't fix them. Don't even try.

Nobody’s advocating that we “fix” American ISIS (though we are probably going to have to figure out how to do that eventually, unless your solution is war). We’re saying we shouldn’t abandon the non-Gilead crazed Americans who happen to live in a state run by American ISIS. Which is...just true?

But throwing up your hands and saying “we can’t fix ‘em”...where does that leave us, exactly? Seriously, what is that endgame?
posted by schadenfrau at 5:57 AM on December 12, 2017 [37 favorites]


they've convinced themselves that anyone who supports abortion is a baby-killer in league with Satan, aka literally the evillest people possible, and thus a mere child molester is a step up.

Funny, if I ever found myself in the unlkely position of believing a child molester is a step up from another choice, I'd like to think my position would still be "Well fuck you, too, child molester!" That's not the position I'm seeing at the um, rallies for Roy Moore.
posted by Rykey at 5:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


I've never been more ashamed to be from Alabama. I don't expect to be surprised today but will eat cake/hats/whatever if I am.
posted by RolandOfEld at 6:00 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


looking at that 538 link Chrysostom helpfully provides, it looks like Fox News commissioned 2 polls with a deliberate aim to demonstrate big margins in Jones' favour.

I'm going to quote my response in the other thread:
There's zero reason to think this. Fox outsources the actual polling to a bipartisan joint operation of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). 538 gives this pollster team an A, with a 0.4 Dem lean overall. The polling is not controlled by the Fox News leadership.

Polling for this race is all over for reasons we've discussed already - no one knows how to model it, and there have been a lot of low-quality pollsters putting out numbers. We don't need to invoke conspiracy.
I am 100% on board with hating on Fox News in general, but their polling is well-respected. They did things differently than some of the other pollsters in this race, but those choices were defensible, even preferable. That's not to say that Jones wins by 10 here, but I think there is no reason to entertain a "Fox is pulling the strings" narrative.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:02 AM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


Maybe I've just been listening to Iron & Wine too much, but when I think Alabama now I think About A Bruise.
posted by oulipian at 6:07 AM on December 12, 2017


I'm definitely expecting a Moore "win". Likely not legitimate, but that stay of the order to preserve voter records is a clear indication that the Republican party is going to steal the election, much the same way they stole GA-06 and much the same way they stole a few states during the Presidential election. They know at this point that they can commit election fraud right out in the open and nobody will do anything about it. We'll likely not have a fair election in a place with a significant majority of Republicans in charge for quite some time.
posted by IAmUnaware at 6:07 AM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Nobody’s advocating that we “fix” American ISIS (though we are probably going to have to figure out how to do that eventually, unless your solution is war).

On de-radicalization programs (in Canada)
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 6:08 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


they've convinced themselves that anyone who supports abortion is a baby-killer in league with Satan, aka literally the evillest people possible, and thus a mere child molester is a step up.

And why have evangelicals attached moral absolutism to the issue of abortion? Because they desperately needed a new issue to re-establish superiority after debasing themselves with their opposition to the Civil Rights Movement.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:10 AM on December 12, 2017 [79 favorites]


If Moore gets elected to state office that says a hell of a lot about the values held by the people of Alabama.

I think it says more about just how total a success the last thirty-to-forty years of right-wing messaging has been in demonizing pretty much anyone to the left of Nixon, and especially how successful they've been in making the word "liberal" a pejorative which is, apparently, worse than "pedophile" to many people.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:13 AM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


I guess what I think is that we have to start somewhere. If the starting point is "actually, I admit that 'dating' children is bad enough that someone shouldn't be in office", well, that's better than the alternative. It's a crack in the worldview - it's saying "even if we are against abortion, we have to put born children first in this case", and then you can start saying "but what about these other cases that are similar". Starting people changing is what matters.

Again, there are people who will never, ever be winnable - they think Hillary Clinton is a giant lizard or whatever. But just shifting the least-conservative 5% can really change things.
posted by Frowner at 6:14 AM on December 12, 2017 [36 favorites]


I really hope the good people of Alabama step up today. There's nothing worse than being surrounded by dickheads when you know that you're also surrounded by good people and quite often they're one and the same. Here's hoping the good speak louder this time.
posted by h00py at 6:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I'm so worried about voter suppression and voter ID laws preventing the good people of Alabama from being able to vote and/or having their votes counted.
posted by pxe2000 at 6:19 AM on December 12, 2017 [23 favorites]


I find it interesting that FoxNews is running stories about how Jones is ahead in the polls, and others are running stories about how Moore is ahead. I'm wondering how much of that is "please please go vote" and how much is about saving face when their side loses?

Meanwhile, Roy Moore, who claims to be for making "Forward Progress" in Alabama; will be going to his polling place today... on horseback.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:23 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Is be grateful if the mods or OP would add a USpolitics tag to this.
posted by Coventry at 6:23 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


has anyone brought up how Alabama instituted a Voter ID law and then promptly shut down the DMV offices in all 10 counties with > 75% African-American populations?
posted by indubitable at 6:26 AM on December 12, 2017 [67 favorites]


Does anyone know the rationale/excuse put forth for not preserving the physical ballots for a few months? Is it something about the resources, or some "paperless government" nonsense?

EDIT: E.g regarding VoterID and DMVs, I know at least one official there asserted that voting ought to be difficult, you know, the stupid "It's a responsibility and you earn it" garbage. Of course, you never see them, say, require by law that all residents travel to the furthest possible DMV, that everyone should re-register every year, etc. The changes (and hence the rationale) are always selective.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:27 AM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


I really hope the good people of Alabama step up today. There's nothing worse than being surrounded by dickheads when you know that you're also surrounded by good people and quite often they're one and the same. Here's hoping the good speak louder this time.

They already picked Moore over Luther Strange, a stalwart conservative Republican. Anti-Semitic, Theocratic Child Molesters seem to be Alabama's thing, I guess. I doubt the hazy "goodness" you seem to think is there will win out today.
posted by Chrischris at 6:28 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


indubitable: "has anyone brought up how Alabama instituted a Voter ID law and then promptly shut down the DMV offices in all 10 counties with > 75% African-American populations?"

They were re-opened in 2015.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:29 AM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


Hey everyone, I know this is a controversial topic, but can we at least try to quote and engage with one another in good faith? Thanks!
posted by pxe2000 at 6:31 AM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Nate Cohn on why this race is so hard to accurately poll.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:31 AM on December 12, 2017


NBC: Turnout expected to be very high for a special, perhaps approaching midterm levels.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:32 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Lee Busby the write-in guy gave a fairly ridiculous Reddit Ask Me Anything yesterday. When I last looked, he did not answer the most popular of the questions, and his answer to how he felt about Net Neutrality is that he is “neutral.” I pretty much gave up reading after that.
posted by thebrokedown at 6:33 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Any word on how Egg’s 500K pro-conservative anti-Moore ads may impact the election, or is it impossible to tell at this point? Have any Alabaman mefites seen one?
posted by corb at 6:41 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


corb: "Any word on how Egg’s 500K pro-conservative anti-Moore ads may impact the election, or is it impossible to tell at this point? Have any Alabaman mefites seen one?"

"Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half."
posted by Chrysostom at 6:46 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Father protesting outside Roy Moore rally talks about losing his gay daughter at age of 23 to suicide. "I was anti-gay myself. I said bad things to my daughter, which I regret."

And for those who missed it in the general thread, in 2012 he wrote a letter to the editor of his local paper where he talked about what happened with his daughter and how it changed him, in the hopes of changing others. Like the video it wrecks you, but it’s really worth reading.

Letter: Soul-baring thoughts on gay-bashing
posted by chris24 at 6:46 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


The liberal redneck on Roy Moore

Full of cursing, as it should be. Supporting the "blue dot in a red sea" - even in Alabama there are so many people who don't support Moore. Will it be enough? I'm not sure, but it's a sizable number, and it's growing.
posted by bizzyb at 6:52 AM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


I find it interesting that FoxNews is running stories about how Jones is ahead in the polls, and others are running stories about how Moore is ahead. I'm wondering how much of that is "please please go vote" and how much is about saving face when their side loses?

Or on the Fox side, how much of it is Jones is ahead, Democrats should just relax and maybe take a day off.
posted by Flexagon at 6:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


If anyone is feeling particularly stressed out, give this single a listen. It's from the upcoming Netflix film Bright and it feels appropriate.

Logic & Rag'n'Bone Man - Broken People (from Bright: The Album) [Official Audio]
posted by Fizz at 6:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I'm not sure, but it's a sizable number, and it's growing.

My fear is that any awakening/growing of the blue dot just seems to elicit a better turnout from the non blue dot side, not to mention disenfranchisement efforts which have been a thing in AL since.. well... forever, which leads to the rage/fear side of things winning the day again just from plain old "how dare these people attempt to turn out and break with the norm?" events.

It's not a happy situation and/or feedback loop but maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel. I doubt it.
posted by RolandOfEld at 6:55 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


It lifted me up and I wanted to share that with you all. I hope Alabama does the right thing.
posted by Fizz at 6:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


If Moore gets elected, does it say anything about the values held by the people of Alabama that didn't vote for him?
Yeah. They're outnumbered.
Pithy but false. Turnout predictions are somewhere around 25%. Many more people will not vote for any and all candidates than will vote for them. In the context of myriad voter suppression efforts, this matters much more than bashing Alabamans.
posted by howfar at 6:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Thus the need for a national voting holiday and federal vote-escrow for 'disputed' votes, along with a sustained, hard push against voter-id laws.
posted by eclectist at 6:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


In the past I have donated to candidates directly or to the Democrats, but lately I’ve been wondering if that money wouldn’t be better put to use by another organization like Indivisible, Swing Left, or maybe one of the voter turnout groups listed in the Indivisible article linked in the original post. Do any of you have ideas about which political organizations are most effective?
posted by The Loch Ness Monster at 6:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]




Update on that vote preservation thing from the ACLU of Alabama:
To clarify, overturning this ruling means that the digital copies of the ballots will not be saved electronically. However, the paper ballots will still be preserved.
So, that sounds a lot less alarming.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:03 AM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


Do any of you have ideas about which political organizations are most effective?

While all these orgs are fairly new, Flippable already has a pretty good track record.

I also have a soft-spot for Spread the Vote.
posted by tofu_crouton at 7:05 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


In the past I have donated to candidates directly or to the Democrats, but lately I’ve been wondering if that money wouldn’t be better put to use by another organization like Indivisible, Swing Left, or maybe one of the voter turnout groups listed in the Indivisible article linked in the original post. Do any of you have ideas about which political organizations are most effective?

If by "the Democrats" you mean the DNC, there's little transparency in where their money goes, even within the organization, although it's becoming more apparent now that it's basically a conduit for funneling money to about half a dozen "consultants" who are coincidentally also governing members. Your political donations would be put to better use almost anywhere else.
posted by indubitable at 7:06 AM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


I think it says more about just how total a success the last thirty-to-forty years of right-wing messaging has been in demonizing pretty much anyone to the left of Nixon, and especially how successful they've been in making the word "liberal" a pejorative which is, apparently, worse than "pedophile" to many people.

While this is very true, I would not infer from this that a Roy Moore couldn't have gotten elected before that demonization. Particularly since a fair amount of Roy's defenders have defended his interesting dating habits as being perfectly normal for that community, time and place.

Many Alabamaians would spit up their lunch at this comparison, but I am reminded of the ongoing battles in the Catholic Church. There are reformers noting that their institution is losing its relevance, that its reach is dwindling, and saying the Church needs to respond to what the world is telling it. And there are reactionaries who are used to being unquestioned authority saying Absolutely not; the Church tells the WORLD how things should be. So it goes with America. The culture war is moving forwards and much of America is saying There's nothing wrong with being LGBT. There's nothing that makes whites superior to any other race. There's nothing that sets Christianity above any other belief. Your state needs to advance its thinking and conservative Alabama digs in its heels and says No, our ways are right, our Lost Cause was just, our authority is justified, our God is Lord, we'll just continue to do things our way and you Feds and libs can go screw.

Sometimes the reformers, like Pope Francis, get an upper hand. Sometimes they cry out into an overwhelming wind. We'll see if someone who's campaigning on bringing Alabama forwards wins today against someone who's campaigning on not budging an inch.
posted by delfin at 7:07 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


"Alabama" should not always be coupled with a derisive snort and a mental picture of Dogpatch.

Especially since Dogpatch was literally located in northern Arkansas. I don't get offended when other people rightly notice what the wingnuts in the south are doing. I notice also. What's annoying is how it's seemingly OK to label basically everyone in the south as racist theocrats. Never mind that there are many places in the south that elect moderates and even progressives when their votes aren't diluted too much.
posted by wierdo at 7:09 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


You know someone is toxic when he's too awful for Fox's Greg Gutfeld and Jesse Watters.
During Monday's episode of “The Five,” co-hosts Greg Gutfeld and Jesse Watters cautioned viewers that Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore would be a bad choice for the Senate.

“I have a big problem with Roy Moore,” Watters said. He complained about Moore's “explosive rhetoric” and claimed that following “credible allegations of inappropriate behavior,” Moore would be a “huge distraction” in the Senate.

“No one's even going to want to sit next to him at the Senate lunchroom. It's going to be very awkward and he's just going to be hounded,” Watters said.

Gutfeld similarly warned the long-term consequences of electing Moore were a lot worse than the initial benefit of getting another Republican Senate seat.

“I hope the guy loses. And if you're upset that I say that, that's not on me. That's on a team sport ideology that's pernicious,” Gutfeld said. He complained that Republicans looked at the Alabama Senate race like a “team sport” in which they argued that although Moore was bad, a Democrat would be worse.

“Just because Trump is all in, doesn't mean you have to be too,” Gutfeld added.
posted by chris24 at 7:09 AM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


Regardless of the outcome, I think some really good things have happened because of this election:
-- It's been a great training ground for lots of new organizations (Indivisible, Postcards for Voters, etc) that will pay off for midterms
-- It's caused many GOP elected officials to go on record either supporting a child molestor or standing against a fellow party member
-- It's forced additional discussion about allowing people who have commmitted sexual crimes to hold office
-- It's caused the GOP to spend a lot of time and money on an election that should have been super easy for them
posted by mcduff at 7:13 AM on December 12, 2017 [77 favorites]


Do any of you have ideas about which political organizations are most effective?

I'd also suggest Let America Vote, the Jason Kander org.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:13 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


To clarify, overturning this ruling means that the digital copies of the ballots will not be saved electronically. However, the paper ballots will still be preserved.

So, that sounds a lot less alarming.


This is a very helpful clarification, but I have to think the digital copies would make assessing the validity of any claims about voting improprieties that much faster/easier (at least as a first round). Perhaps im missing something but wouldn't the first step in reviewing the paper ballots to be to find some way to digitize them en mass for computer-based analysis? am I being super naïve?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:14 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


You know someone is toxic when he's too awful for Fox's Greg Gutfeld and Jesse Watters.

It's profoundly weird to be in agreement with Watters and Gutfeld but don't be lulled into thinking that they're your friends. They're both amoral scumbags who happen to live in NYC, where even as a Republican Trumpist it's still considered gauche to promote pedophilia, obvious anti-semitism, etc. If Moore wins, you're not going to hear anything from them about how he is a condemnation of the GOP or about how he must be immediately expelled from the Senate. Moore will just be a thing that happened, it's in the past, and why are we talking about that instead of the real scandal of Mueller personally smuggling all that Uranium to George Soros?
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


You know, if you look at gerrymandering, the electoral college system, voter suppression, voter turnout, this shit going on with voting records, etc., it's weird how the US attempts to portray itself as the shining standard of Democracy in the world.

I love you guys, you know I do, but it's not because of how you hold elections.
posted by signal at 7:18 AM on December 12, 2017 [54 favorites]


And as far as it being normal back when, sure, it was. It was also normal for siblings and cousins to play doctor out in the woods. Turns out that's not OK. I won't judge anyone who engaged in that sort of behavior then, but I'm perfectly happy to judge people who think that's OK in this day and age. I'd have a lot more respect for Moore's voters (and Moore) if he'd come out and said "yes, I did date high school kids. That would be inappropriate today, but it was a different time back then and were I in that situation today I would handle things differently." He'd still be creepy, but at least it would indicate that he understands what the problem is. And he should. Remember how I said it was normal back then? I fibbed a bit. It was normal in the sense it wasn't anything shocking assuming it was all consensual (yes, consent is ambiguous at best in reality here, I'm explaining the thought process), but it was already well on its way out by the 70s. Like that was stuff my grandparents and early boomers might have done, but not people after that. Roy Moore is old enough that he should have missed it by a decade or so.

Basically what I'm saying is that the people making that excuse for Moore aren't completely wrong, just wrong about which decade attitudes shifted. By the 80s, even in the rural South men over 20 or so having anything to do with even older high school kids was looked at with much "ew." It was well into the shadows by then. The idea that it was accepted outside the smallest towns in Alabama by the 70s is a total rewrite of history.
posted by wierdo at 7:20 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


signal, pretty much all these anti-democracy practices are historically linked to slavery and racism. And more besides.
posted by rikschell at 7:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Perhaps im missing something but wouldn't the first step in reviewing the paper ballots to be to find some way to digitize them en mass for computer-based analysis? am I being super naïve?

Saving the scans would be able to show not just inaccuracies in the count, which could be fixed by re-counting, but problems in the software or other tampering.

However, it's also a drain on resources on short notice. I could see an argument that the various districts aren't prepared for it. There's a difference between "software that counts a scantron record" and "software that scans the page and keeps that tiff/jpg/pdf somewhere."

I'm disappointed, but I suspect this is a case of someone persuading a non-technical court that it's outside their (the districts') skills, and without a hearing - which, on such short time, is difficult - the court was willing to say "no adding last-minute poorly explained complex-tech problems to the election."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:26 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Is it really impossible to predict? We're talking Alabama here.

If you'll follow the link, you'll see that the polls currently have a seventeen point range, from Jones winning with a 9% lead to Moore winning with an 8% lead.


In my opinion, this says more about the relative value of political polling than it does about this election.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:32 AM on December 12, 2017


Also it's easy for Alabama Republicans to vote for Roy Moore because they think he has been falsely accused.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:34 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Pithy but false. Turnout predictions are somewhere around 25%. Many more people will not vote for any and all candidates than will vote for them. In the context of myriad voter suppression efforts, this matters much more than bashing Alabamans.

75% of Alabamans are not being directly affected by voter suppression to the point where they are unable to vote. The reason we know this is the estimated turnout for the 2016 Presidential election in the state one year ago was ~66.1%. That leaves ~33.9% of the electorate. African Americans make up ~25% of Alabama's population and about 20% of eligible voters.

If you are right and only 25% of the voting electorate votes today, even if all of those 33.9% were being affected by voter suppression efforts, there will likely be a huge number of voters in Alabama today who will not vote. They will make a conscious choice not to vote against Moore in an election that has gotten intense national and local attention.

So yes, the "good" people are most likely outnumbered. Because by that definition a "good" voter would cast a vote in an attempt to prevent Moore from getting into office. And there are almost definitely more people who are capable of voting than not.

If facts make Alabamans look bad, whose fault is that?
posted by zarq at 7:34 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


ErisLordFreedom As an IT professional, I'm not at all sympathetic to the argument that preserving the scans would be onerous on anyone. If they made the scans at all, then they have storage to keep them.

Further, the data isn't going to be that big. In 2016 there were around 2,000,000 votes cast in Alabama. Even assuming preposterously large file sizes, I doubt we'd see each scan of a ballot being more than 2mb.

That's a total of around 5tb. I can buy a 5 terrabyte hard drive on Amazon right now for about $120.

Even if we double the scan size to 4mb per scan (preposterously huge for a scan of a ballot) you're talking about spending less than $500 to preserve the records for the entire state. And on a per county basis you're talking about spending maybe $5 to buy a cheap little 16gb thumbdrive.

From an IT perspective saving the scans of two million ballots is simply not a big or expensive problem, even if you use ridiculously large file sizes.
posted by sotonohito at 7:37 AM on December 12, 2017 [40 favorites]


I don't know, zarq. When your choice is between getting fired (illegally, but this is Alabama, ain't nobody enforcing that law) or voting, most people, quite reasonably, choose to deal with the immediate threat before the nebulous future threat.
posted by wierdo at 7:38 AM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


I tend to feel about fighting racism in Alabama the way I feel about fighting sexism in general, in that I don't expect victories a lot of the time, because the evil we are fighting is so entrenched and ancient. Sexism and racism are thousands of years old, for all we know they have been a problem for humans since we were humans, and so of course, of course, we are not going to have an easy fight rooting them up/containing them.

But it's unacceptable not to fight them. They literally make life on earth Hell for all but a few.

So win or no win here today, in this one race, we know we will keep fighting.

I'm pulling for you, decent people of Alabama, but I'm not going to give up on you if we don't get a victory today. I live in Texas, I know what it's like to be that blue dot.
posted by emjaybee at 7:38 AM on December 12, 2017 [79 favorites]


Today I am choosing hope.
posted by sunset in snow country at 7:39 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


I am NOT an IT/Technical professional but I am trying to understand this - even if we take that the state of ALs arguments were made in bad faith, the thing that is lost by not retaining the scans is the ability to see if some sort of systematic effort was made to change the outcome of the vote, but what is NOT lost is the ability to go back to the as-cast ballots and determine the actual winner?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:39 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


NPR keeps talking to Moore supporters, but fail to talk to anyone who supports Doug Jones:

Before Voting Begins, A Look At Alabama's Special Senate Election (Dec. 11, 2017)
Brock said if the allegations prove true, let the Senate ethics committee handle it. Or Alabama voters can handle it by voting Roy Moore out in three years when this seat is up for grabs again.
No, let's not speak with our votes right here and now, let's wait a while to see if he acts upon all the terrible things he has already said! It's worked for our president, right?

And this morning: News Brief: Roy Moore Vs. Doug Jones In Alabama Special Election (audio only for now, transcript coming later) -- "how are they treating you?" "haha, it's the south, they're treating me great!" What a way to open a piece about a man sexually harassing teenage girls. How did he treat them? Oh, and how is he treating non-Christians? Yeah, shitty job there, NPR. "A lot of conflicted voters" who will still vote for Moore, just like they felt when they voted for Trump. Because abortion over everything else.

Also, the "white hot attention" to Moore overshadowing Jones is a media problem! FFS, NPR.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:41 AM on December 12, 2017 [42 favorites]


From the video bizzyb linked above:
The Liberal Redneck: We are live on stage in Birmingham at the wonderful Star Dome in front of five hundred Alabamans, and I have something I want to ask them. Birmingham, does Roy Moore speak for you?
Crowd: (Screams of "no" and boos)
TLR: Are you gonna go out on Tuesday and let him fuckin' know that?
Crowd: (Cheers)
TLR (to camera): You're not alone. You're not alone! It's not over. No matter what happens on Tuesday, the New South belongs to us! Fuck Roy Moore!
To me as a non-Alabaman, the fact that there's even a competition between a theocratic child molester and any normal politician says there's something rotten in the state of Alabama. But the fact that so many Alabamans are fighting for their state, and fighting against their friends and neighbors to keep Roy Moore out and pull Alabama politics out of the 19th century says there's also something right happening there. These folks need our help and support, and saying that if Alabama does elect Roy Moore, it's only to be expected, because it's Alabama and of course they would elect a pedophile if he's a Republican, that does the many liberals of Alabama no favors.

I don't buy the argument that failing to vote is the morally the same as voting for Moore (though it is bad). But even under that logic, dismissing the whole state because of a Moore victory is throwing 1 in 8 eligible voters under the bus.
posted by biogeo at 7:43 AM on December 12, 2017 [52 favorites]


i predict @virgiltexas is gonna be touching poo tomorrow because we live in hellworld where good things are impossible
posted by entropicamericana at 7:44 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


As an IT professional, I'm not at all sympathetic to the argument that preserving the scans would be onerous on anyone. If they made the scans at all, then they have storage to keep them.

I'm an imaging/digital records expert; this kind of thing is what I do, all the time. And I think "the records are too hard to keep" is a ridiculous and spurious claim. If they're scanning to count the dots, they must have the ability to save the images, and yes, even if they're using horrible settings that jack up the image size, the storage capacity isn't great.

But I don't anyone on the Alabama Supreme Court knows that, which is what I meant - they may have made a claim, "the tech! It's too hard!" and with less than 24 hours before the election started, there's not time to call in experts on both sides.

And they didn't try, which tells me they they may be biased. However, it's also possible that they just decided, "we are not supporting sending out notifications to every election site in the state, telling them to add $NEW_PROCEDURE to their election process, and installing the software required in the next few hours."

Doesn't matter if there's no installation required and it's a matter of "press the button that says [preserve images]." I suspect they made a tech-based argument and the court didn't have the expertise to even realize it might be flawed.

With a week of lead time, I could see an effective argument of "this would be easy to implement; cost is negligible (at most, 1 portable hard drive per election site; most likely their current arrangements have plenty of space); would be a terrific way to prevent outsider hacking or insider corruption." But I suspect the time is too short for the court to agree to changes in the current system.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:45 AM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


I don't know, zarq. When your choice is between getting fired (illegally, but this is Alabama, ain't nobody enforcing that law) or voting, most people, quite reasonably, choose to deal with the immediate threat before the nebulous future threat.

66.1% of Alabamans voted in last year's Presidential election. The assumption being offered is that only 25% will vote today.

Are you alleging that something has changed between then and now to force 41% of the people who voted last year to stay home today? Because I gotta say, even assuming widespread and overt voter suppression efforts that number seems pretty high and unlikely.
posted by zarq at 7:49 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]




'One of our attorneys is a Jew,' Roy Moore's wife says in smirking anti-Semitism defense.

Carrie Brownstein has some holiday wishes.
posted by uncleozzy at 7:50 AM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


NPR keeps talking to Moore supporters, but fail to talk to anyone who supports Doug Jones

WTF is wrong with NPR? Seriously, WTF is wrong with them?
posted by leotrotsky at 7:51 AM on December 12, 2017 [44 favorites]


Birmingham Barber's Thoughts On Alabama's Special Election (NPR, Dec. 12, 2017 -- audio only, no transcript yet) -- Eugene Jones, a Democrat, has this to say to Alabama Democrats: be more like Donald Trump and don't be afraid to say what you want to do. (He's voting for Doug Jones and did not vote for Trump.)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:52 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


WTF is wrong with NPR? Seriously, WTF is wrong with them?

too many privileged white folks and beltway insiders
posted by entropicamericana at 7:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


NPR has been crap for ages. I stopped listening to them when Dubya was in office.
posted by asteria at 7:54 AM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


The apprehension I have is that Moore has sucked up all the oxygen, so people who haven't been paying close attention likely haven't seen reasons to vote for Doug Jones. It's all been anti-Moore. We saw how well that worked out in 2016 when Hillary couldn't get shit for traction when it came to selling her vision. The news media was too obsessed with emails, just like they're obsessed with Roy Moore's accusers and haven't really said much about why Jones is a good choice or many of the other reasons Moore is a dumpster fire.

And yes, zarq, I am saying circumstances are different. Even shitty bosses tend to make arrangements in Presidential years. It's one big reason why turnout is so much higher in off years and specials even when there is major media attention riling people up to go to the polls. Lots of people can't afford or can't get for any price, child care to make the time to go vote after work. This is especially true among women in places like Alabama.
posted by wierdo at 7:55 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Alabama's Special Election Is Now Up To The Voters (NPR, Dec. 12, 2017 - audio only for now, etc.) -- A church pastor explains why he's backing GOP candidate Roy Moore despite multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and assault (spoiler: it's all about what he wants to believe based on "facts," like those you can read in the Bible).

And in which we hear a mother indoctrinate her daughter abortion by saying it's a doctor killing a baby, disregarding the numerous allegations of being a sexual predator of teenage girls.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Turnout always suffers in special elections; even given these candidates, it seems unfair to use that as evidence that Alabamaians are uniquely evil. Also, not giving up on them is, for a lot of us, part of not giving up on our COUNTRY so maybe chill?
posted by sunset in snow country at 7:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


This is going to be a very long day.
posted by gwint at 7:58 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


WTF is wrong with NPR? Seriously, WTF is wrong with them?

Given the right political environment, enough cowardice, fear of retaliation, laziness, and pathological "even-handedness" will take you to Normalize Pinochet Radio in no time.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


A woman explained abortion to *her third grader* this morning and made her tell an npr reporter that they were against it.

And the NPR reporter saw fit to run with it instead of consigning that tape to the garbage bin. Shame on her. But then, NPR's coverage of the Alabama election has been terrible. Immediately before that segment, their host aired tape of the Doug Jones office not wanting to talk to her -- not like they're busy or anything -- and then ran an extended interview of an African-American barber shop owner complaining about Jones. I guess she showed them, amirite?
posted by Gelatin at 7:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


Turnout always suffers in special elections; even given these candidates, it seems unfair to use that as evidence that Alabamaians are uniquely evil. Also, not giving up on them is, for a lot of us, part of not giving up on our COUNTRY so maybe chill?

QFT.

I get that it makes folks feel real smug and superior to mock the South--never mind the massive entrenched racism in the North as well as the West Coast--but it also shows that you're okay with writing off a lot of liberal/POC/LGBTQ folks whose family and lives are there.
posted by Kitteh at 7:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [49 favorites]


I've been text-banking for this race, and today's the most fun of all- lots of texts back from people who have already voted, some even sending over selfies of their stickers. IT'S THE DAY OF THE SHOW, Y'ALL
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 8:01 AM on December 12, 2017 [69 favorites]


Normalize Pinochet Radio

oh, that's a good one. I'm keeping that one.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:03 AM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


NPR has been crap for ages. I stopped listening to them when Dubya was in office.

My NPR affiliate does plenty of original local and state reporting that I really value, so I keep waking up to Morning Edition. Which is usually fine, but sometimes I grind my teeth until they get to one of the local segments, and sometimes (today) I just have to turn it off entirely.

I send them a few bucks a year with the note that I'm really all about their original programming, and that if they stop airing both NPR flagship shows twice a day, I would be fine with that.
posted by asperity at 8:04 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Two of my oldest friends--a married gay couple--in the world reside in Atlanta; Matt 1 is from rural South Carolina, and Matt 2 is a suburban Georgian boy. Every time the Republican shit comes home to roost in Georgia, they get a litany of friends who moved away from the South saying, "Ugh, it's so horrible there. You guys should move up North."

Their response: "This is MY home. This is where I live. They aren't going to run me out. I stay and I fight."

There are tons of those folks all over Alabama too.
posted by Kitteh at 8:05 AM on December 12, 2017 [96 favorites]


Oh yeah, that's great, almost as good as National Pinko Radio!

If only I could attach a generator to them, I could power my house with the rolling of my eyes.
posted by biogeo at 8:07 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


I stay and fight, and further, though I live in Mississippi, I am absolutely surrounded by smart, liberal people who also choose to stay and fight. Change is coming, even though it’s kicking and screaming all the way.
posted by thebrokedown at 8:10 AM on December 12, 2017 [45 favorites]


But throwing up your hands and saying “we can’t fix ‘em”...where does that leave us, exactly? Seriously, what is that endgame?

It's not an "endgame." I never said it was one.

But if you want to come up with one, the smart thing to do would be to acknowledge the simple reality that Doug Jones, a mildly liberal pro-choice candidate, would not have had a snowball's chance in hell of being elected Senator in Alabama if he weren't running against Roy Moore.

Democratic progressives generally do not win elections in White districts in Alabama except under extraordinary circumstances. And Whites outnumber African Americans 3 to 1. The Republican Party holds all statewide elected offices and six of the state’s seven congressional seats. Which is why I responded the way I did in my earlier comment. I was replying to the statement that "Whatever happens in Alabama today, this was close. Close enough that we have a platform to come back in two years with progressive candidates and try again, and we should, and we will."

That's not a winning strategy here. There is no logical path from "an election between Doug Jones and Roy Moore is extremely close and Moore may or may not win tonight" to "Alabama will vote in Progressive candidates in two years."

A successful endgame first and foremost requires a foundation built on a realistic understanding of the population involved.
posted by zarq at 8:11 AM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


it makes folks feel real smug and superior to mock the South

I suspect many intelligent people in the South don't vote in Senate races for the same reason many Californian's don't vote; they pretty much assume they know how things will go, since they generally have.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:12 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I can understand the temptation to disown red states; as I've said before, I'm reminded of ungrateful stepchildren who call you names and trash your possessions but still demand your money. California's economy alone is larger than most countries. So my taxpayer's money is going to prop up abusers and their enablers, which sucks...

...but, on the other hand twenty-five percent of Alabama's population is African-American, and there are plenty of LGBT people there as well. There are good people of all races, creeds, sexualities, and gender identities who live in Alabama and deserve our support.

California has its RWNJ's too - I saw a truck with an Infowars sticker alongside a Trump sticker just the other day. However, here the Breitbarters and so on are vastly outnumbered, and the culture at large doesn't support them. If a lawmaker wanted to put a Ten Commandments in my City Hall, they'd be laughed out of the building.

I had to get a new health insurance plan this year, so I went through Covered California, and it was not only so easy to apply, they ask all applicants if they want to register to vote! Same with the DMV - it's automatic to ask. They practically chase you down and demand that you register. I can imagine how different, and how harder, it is when the state government closes down actual DMV's in majority-black areas.

I think it's important to not give up on any state and to do our best to reach people who are reachable, and get out the vote. I'm so proud of Postcards to Voters reaching every registered Democrat household in Alabama! Even if Jones loses, this kind of effort will pay off in later elections, especially 2018. Another thing that has happened - when there are serious Democratic challengers to "safe" Republican seats, the Republicans have to pour money and effort into keeping those seats. Every competitive Democrat, even if they lose (like Jon Ossoff) bleeds the Republican coffers just a bit more.

#shepersisted #wepersist
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [46 favorites]


but the Republican candidate was a creepy, super-racist stalker pedophile with extreme religious views.

And the guy who Trump WANTED was Strange. (A guy named Strange, not strange)

Instant Run Off voting would at least give a shot at things not being "Vote for this person because we don't want the OTHER person in office."
posted by rough ashlar at 8:19 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


NYT Daily podcast had a reporter talking about Moore's history of putting the Ten Commandments in stone on courthouse lawns in defiance of federal orders - something they say that has given him a lot of longstanding credibility in evangelical circles

I've said it before -- and Slacktivist has expounded on the subject more eloquently -- but the Ten Commandments has something to say about bearing false witness, and it isn't approving.
posted by Gelatin at 8:19 AM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Meanwhile, the Russian Twitter bot networks are reportedly backing Moore to the hilt, in texts with certain telltale mistakes (i.e., “Alabamans” rather than “Alabamians”).

Presumably Putin's strategy is to bleed the enemy and weaken them, the way Reagan's arms race escalation bled the USSR to the point of implosion. Getting extremists into power in the west and making the westerners fight their neighbours is part of it as much as opening “frozen conflicts” on the borders of target states like Georgia and Ukraine and giving letters of marque to organised crime to drain the enemy's finances.

I wonder whether this is just about ratcheting up the tension (having an undeniable paedophile in office will debase and weaken the Amers, dimming the light on the hill and shifting the global geopolitical balance), or whether there's a team in the Kremlin currently working on Moore's 2020 Presidential campaign.
posted by acb at 8:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


My fear is that any awakening/growing of the blue dot just seems to elicit a better turnout from the non blue dot side

This seems to be the price of operating out in the open. If Dems were able to work more quietly they might not draw out the opposition quite so much. What would that entail? I'm not sure.

The apprehension I have is that Moore has sucked up all the oxygen, so people who haven't been paying close attention likely haven't seen reasons to vote for Doug Jones.

YES.

$SANE_CANDIDATE : My policies are X. I am travelling everywhere, meeting people and talking to them about their needs.
$BATSHIT_CANDIDATE: LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEROOOOOOOOY JENKINS!
Media: Observers were outraged when $BATSHIT_CANDIDATE was batshit for the millionth time
Voters: Why doesn't $SANE_CANDIDATE talk about something other than how bad $BATSHIT_CANDIDATE is?

We will get so many chances to fill in those blanks with new candidates until the media understand their role better.
posted by Jpfed at 8:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [50 favorites]


I am NOT an IT/Technical professional but I am trying to understand this - even if we take that the state of ALs arguments were made in bad faith, the thing that is lost by not retaining the scans is the ability to see if some sort of systematic effort was made to change the outcome of the vote, but what is NOT lost is the ability to go back to the as-cast ballots and determine the actual winner?

I am an IT Pro. And an Albany County, NY Elections Inspector. I feel the 'keep the images' thing is a bit of a derail. The cross-check on the scan-tron tabulators is a hand audit of the paper ballots cast to ensure the tabulators are accurate.

That's actual work. I feel it's needed work, but even here in Albany, NY they don't cross-check as much as I'd like.

So, to answer the question. There's still an audit trail. There's still a control on the electronic tabulation. There's a 100% lack of commitment to it across the board, because it's actual work, and therefore unless compelling reasons exist to verify accuracy, it's not done.

That's the real risk. And it's easily remedied. There outta be a law.
posted by mikelieman at 8:23 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


> Every time a reporter locates some misogynist troglodyte in a bar to interview they're like "SEE!! SEEEE!!!!

I am a working-class white southerner, and I'm social democrat – not a socialist. (I was happy to vote for DSA-endorsed candidate for city council last month, though, and even happier when she won.) I'm not the kind of white working-class voter reporters like to interview.

(The one time I got interviewed by a reporter about politics, I talked the reporters ear off about sampling biases in polling. I was in a Democratic campaign office at the time, not a diner. My rant did not make it into the article. :-)

I realize #notallDSA but what if #mylocalDSA? I'm afraid to go and find out.

I think I can pretty safely say not any DSA members. But, given the assumptions you're making, the DSA probably isn't for you.
posted by nangar at 8:24 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


I think it's important to not give up on any state and to do our best to reach people who are reachable, and get out the vote. I'm so proud of Postcards to Voters reaching every registered Democrat household in Alabama! Even if Jones loses, this kind of effort will pay off in later elections, especially 2018. Another thing that has happened - when there are serious Democratic challengers to "safe" Republican seats, the Republicans have to pour money and effort into keeping those seats. Every competitive Democrat, even if they lose (like Jon Ossoff) bleeds the Republican coffers just a bit more.

Good points.
posted by zarq at 8:24 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Jennifer Wright‏ @JenAshleyWright retweeted her comment from the November 7 VA election:
If you’re a democrat, please get out and vote.

If you’re a republican, thoughts and prayers are sufficient.
Good luck, Alamaba-based MeFites, we're all counting on you.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:28 AM on December 12, 2017 [72 favorites]


Good points.

at the risk of rehashing the ugly arguments about whether there is room in a big tent democratic party for anti-abortion/pro-lifers, I heard some horrific interview on NPR this morning that gave me the impression that a non-trivial number of folks to whom the dems could be trying to reach would never ever come over unless the candidate had a detailed and explicit history of opposing abortion access, which I personally feel should be a nonstarter. The woman who was being interviewed in Alabama had taught her very young daughter that abortion was baby murder and that was why she was proud to vote for Roy Moore, the non-babymurdering candidate. She (or perhaps another interviewee) even pre-emtped/dismissed the "doug jones wants there to be less abortions" argument by saying it had clearly been ginned up by a campaign director to emptily appeal to good Christians.

it left me profoundly disheartened because im not sure I can conceive of a functional politics in this country so long as a sizable plurality of the electorate refuses to accept other peoples bodily autonomy should come before their religious views. and I have zero idea about how to get from where we are to where we'd need to be to make that happen.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:34 AM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Heh.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:38 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


(A guy named Strange, not strange)

Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by Talez at 8:40 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


nangar: "I think I can pretty safely say not any DSA members."

Well, there was this essay blowing up the other day from a self-proclaimed North Alabama DSA member, saying she wouldn't vote for Jones, because he was insufficiently left.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:41 AM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Well, there was this essay blowing up the other day from a self-proclaimed North Alabama DSA member, saying she wouldn't vote for Jones, because he was insufficiently left.

Oh boy. This essay does wonders for the Left's reputation of wanting to be the smartest fucking contrarian in the room. I've seen a lot of stupid shit written about this election cycle but this one is up there with "Why it’s wrong to attack the Republican Senate candidate for his dissent in a child rape case".
posted by Talez at 8:48 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


given the assumptions you're making

I'm not assuming anything, I'm reading Twitter. You can argue that's #fakenews, but the reason reading that stuff was shocking to me is that I was not expecting it from fellow leftists.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:49 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Well, there was this essay blowing up the other day from a self-proclaimed North Alabama DSA member, saying she wouldn't vote for Jones, because he was insufficiently left.

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
posted by lydhre at 8:50 AM on December 12, 2017 [42 favorites]


Even the reddest of red states are really just shades of purple. Alabama is just 52% Republican, with 35% Dem and 13% "No Lean" (2014 Pew)

If this election gets those Dem voters less dispirited and more engaged, it could bode well for future elections there, regardless of the outcome. And all the grassroots efforts to do this in Alabama can and will be applied to states where the purple is closer to blue. I can't see a downside to the huge efforts focusing on the blue side of the Alabama electorate.
posted by jetsetsc at 8:54 AM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Another county results guide from DKE.

And one from an Alabamian Dem pollster.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:09 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Well, there was this essay blowing up the other day from a self-proclaimed North Alabama DSA member, saying she wouldn't vote for Jones, because he was insufficiently left.

I think this person is...wrong, but maybe not incomprehensibly wrong? Like, I had this moment when I thought to myself "OMG, what if Mark Zuckerberg is the Democratic candidate in 2020? Maybe I would...stay home?" And that really clarified a lot of stuff for me. It would be very, very hard for me to vote for someone who is as disastrous and morally unmoored a candidate as I think Zuckerberg would be, even if the alternative were Trump. I...I suppose I'd choke back the bile and do it because of Trump, but it would be way, way beyond my feelings of "I am not enthused about Hillary Clinton but I can deal".

So anyway, when I realized that my gut response to a Zuckerberg vs Trump election was "both are terrible though in different ways, I would rather not", that gave me a lot more understanding of where some folks are coming from on the "I'm just not voting" front. I think the strategic thing to do is to vote for Jones, but I can also understand how you might feel that temporizing about the Civil War while trying to get votes from Black voters would be a bridge too far.

I guess my response is to hope that most people don't feel that way, but I don't find it as incomprehensible as I would have a year ago.
posted by Frowner at 9:10 AM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


I live in Alabama in a non-rural area and I'll be voting during lunch. I'm slightly optimistic as I see sooooo many Doug Jones yard signs. This many yard signs for a democrat candidate is just unprecendented in my time here. In previous elections it would be rare to see any Democrat yard signs.

That said, I know people who have their justifications for voting for Moore. It's amazing in a sad way...
posted by LoveHam at 9:14 AM on December 12, 2017 [40 favorites]


I have zero idea about how to get from where we are to where we'd need to be to make that happen.

1. The actual sincere types--there are a few--who care about babies/lives can be reached with a pro-contraception/healthcare argument. More contraception access=MANY fewer abortions; access to healthcare means fewer abortions/more babies and moms surviving birth and thriving afterwards. And only the Democratic Party is fighting for those things.*

2. The rest--distressingly many--can't be reached this way because what they really want is to punish women, and you can tell who they are because they respond to the contraception argument with "But then we are rewarding their bad behavior!" These folks have a much deeper problem in that they think that regulating women's sex lives is a legitimate function of society/government. Often they cannot be reached, though you can call them out at this point on the fact that rejecting the number one most-effective way to prevent abortions in the name of punishing people for having sex means they don't actually care about aborted fetuses. Don't expect to "win" this argument if you make it, but it might be useful in a performative sense by making the listeners think harder. Also make sure you have a firm grasp on how various types of contraceptives work, because there will inevitably be someone who equates the pill/IUDs with a form of abortion and you will need to explain that gestation begins at implantation not fertilization, the body rejects tons of fertilized and implanted eggs naturally, etc. etc. Again, this may only be useful in the performative sense.

* I am leaving out "women are people who deserve autonomy" because if someone already believed that, they wouldn't be in the anti-choice camp. But yes, we are and we do.
posted by emjaybee at 9:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [31 favorites]


I grant the small possibility that if Jones were against Roe v Wade, that alone could push him to victory (a Pyrrhic one; bodily autonomy isn't a "special interest"). But even if that's the case, and even if you don't care about the issue, you can't conclude that Democratic candidates should relax on women's rights, because single-issue pro-forced-birth voters are normally guaranteed to go with the Republican anyway, for some fairly logical reasons. Even the ones who truly don't care about anything else have long ago come to view other Republican policies, like "tax cuts", as a valid proxy for the candidate's abortion stance.

Hence, any signs of feminism/progressivism in a simultaneously pro-life Democrat (or, just the party label) are naturally viewed with suspicion. Trump would (hypocritically!) accuse a pro-forced-birth Jones of not really believing in the sanctity of life or whatever, and the base would eat it up. Like Exceptional_Hubris said: [The interviewee] even pre-emtped/dismissed the "doug jones wants there to be less abortions" argument by saying it had clearly been ginned up by a campaign director to emptily appeal to good Christians.

-------

The_Vegetables: Also it's easy for Alabama Republicans to vote for Roy Moore because they think he has been falsely accused.

Yes and no. As I may have said before, I suspect that a Roy Moore with equally credible male accusers would actually be done for. Moore's supporters "think he has been falsely accused" but also "eh what's the big deal", and those two thoughts are sort of the same thing in their minds. That's how beliefs work, often. (Plus, per the network-based model of political identity — and the way patriarchy works — they'd be much less quick to trust the anti-choice credentials of an accused same-sex assaulter.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:20 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Exceptional_Hubris it left me profoundly disheartened because im not sure I can conceive of a functional politics in this country so long as a sizable plurality of the electorate refuses to accept other peoples bodily autonomy should come before their religious views. and I have zero idea about how to get from where we are to where we'd need to be to make that happen.

I think the answer, even in Alabama and other deeply red parts of the country, is we simply don't need to win the unreachable people to our side.

It'd be nice.

I want to simply because I'm **RIGHT**, they're **WRONG** and I want them to stop being wrong.

But ultimately a) we can't change their minds, and b) we don't need to.

We can, we must, win without them.

I'm not going to criticize someone who tries to engage with the single issue forced birthers, I wish them luck. But I consider it wasted effort, and I won't contribute time, money, or anything else to such efforts.

Getting non-voters to vote is a decidedly non-trivial problem, but it's one with some chance of success while converting forced birthers to Democratic votes has none.

At the risk of reopening the big tent argument, I think that's why the Democrats shouldn't be courting forced birth advocates. It doesn't matter how many "moderates" the Democrats have running for office, to the really hard core forced birthers any Democrat, no matter how "pro-life", is a satanic baby killer (if only by association) and they'd rather chew broken glass than vote for a satanic baby killer. We can't change their minds, we can't get them to vote for us, end of story.

Our path forward is not converting Republican voters to Democratic voters. I won't say it's flat out impossible, only that the cost is far too great to be worth it. Better we spend our efforts converting non-voters into Democratic voters. And we do that with bold, charismatic, candidates who strike out and lead instead of cowering behind focus groups and taking mealy mouthed third way middle of the road-ism.

No one is going to vote for Caspar Milquetoast, especially not non-voters who see all politicians as the same, but they might well vote for Jane Charisma out there boldly speaking truth to power.
posted by sotonohito at 9:31 AM on December 12, 2017 [52 favorites]


ErisLordFreedom Apologies, I didn't mean to explain things at you that you know better than me.

I do admit the partisan makeup of the Supreme Court of Alabama (that is, 100% Republican) makes me a lot less willing to think they were making any sort of legitimate argument and were, instead, just doing whatever they can to try and cover up for possible Republican cheating.

If the paper ballots are kept and show a discrepancy with the computer tabulation than the scans being gone means it's impossible to track down who dinked around with the scans and flipped D votes to R.
posted by sotonohito at 9:34 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


[Hello friends, the question about whether Dems should try to reach conservative voters is absolutely ground amply-covered; some think yes, some think no, you all know the reasons. Let's not go back over and over those same arguments in here. If there's nothing going on, the thread can just be quietish until something's happening.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:35 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Just a gentle suggestion that folks scale back using right-wing rhetoric -- even ironically -- to describe abortion and people who have abortions. Everyone who has had an abortion is aware that some people think they're a murderer, it doesn't need to be repeatedly stated in this thread, or, really, anywhere.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:46 AM on December 12, 2017 [59 favorites]


NPR keeps talking to Moore supporters, but fail to talk to anyone who supports Doug Jones

Since last year I've seriously begun to wonder if Steve Bannon is holding someone a NPR's dog hostage, or something. They've been worse than they were in 2000, the runup to Gulf War II, 2008, the so-called "tea party" movement, and Obamacare.

They're terrible in such a consistent way that it can only be someone's deliberate choice. I doubt it's mere incompetence, however incompetent it makes them look.
posted by Gelatin at 9:51 AM on December 12, 2017 [31 favorites]


Politico/Morning Consult poll: Roy Moore should be kicked out of Senate if he wins

More than six-in-10 voters (61 percent) — including a plurality of Republicans — think the Senate should expel the embattled Moore, who has been accused of pursuing and molesting teenage girls while in his 30s. That includes 77 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 45 percent of Republicans.

There’s also a gender gap, especially among Republicans, on the issue of expulsion. Half of female Republicans think the Senate should expel Moore, but just 39 percent of Republican men agree.

Only 17 percent of voters think the Senate should not expel Moore if he defeats Democrat Doug Jones in Tuesday’s election — including 7 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of independents and 29 percent of Republicans.


So less (probably a lot less) than 29% of Republican women think that Moore should not be expelled from the senate if seated. I don't know how many would switch to voting D when this doesn't happen; probably not many. But it seems to me that there's no better way to alienate and depress the vote of GOP women than Senator Moore.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:52 AM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


So if he wins, gets expelled, then we're back to another special election and it's Jones v Strange?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:55 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I keep waiting to see if the recent sexual harassment-related exits of two(?) top NPR executives might change the coverage in any way, but I have yet to detect anything.
posted by jetsetsc at 9:56 AM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Apologies, I didn't mean to explain things at you that you know better than me.

Nah, sorry; is all good. For people who don't work with these technologies, it's important to mention that they're not actually that complex. Data retention can be a time-consuming resource hog - but only if you don't know what you're doing with it. For a single-focus purpose like election records, it'd be simple to set something up.

But I can see even an unbiased court deciding, "we're not doing that in the next 15 hours." Throw in some actual desire to hide the tracks of voter change or suppression, and you get a slam-dunk "no changes to the current process" ruling. It's worth a hard side-eye, but it isn't overt confirmation of corruption - it can easily be covered by "courts really don't like last-minute changes to government processes."

I'm trying to track down the legal docs for the rulings. There's this twitter thread with the court's emergency stay granted, but the details aren't in it.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:57 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


So if he wins, gets expelled, then we're back to another special election and it's Jones v Strange?

Moore could run again and win again. He beat Strange by 10%.
posted by chris24 at 9:57 AM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Politico/Morning Consult poll: Roy Moore should be kicked out of Senate if he wins

Only 17 percent of voters think the Senate should not expel Moore if he defeats Democrat Doug Jones in Tuesday’s election — including 7 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of independents and 29 percent of Republicans.

Wow. That's actually a lot better than I would have expected, and makes me more positive about the whole "Dems win even if they lose today" thing, which I am not temperamentally optimistic enough for.
posted by saturday_morning at 9:58 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Re: destroying the electronic voting records...

Has there ever been an update since the Diebold voting machine days (2004), when the CEO promised Ohio to Bush? Or the ease with which the machines can be hacked? Is there a new oversight committee or some new laws to protect against turnout manipulation? Did the technology/responsibility shift to some bipartisan/public authority?
posted by Christ, what an asshole at 9:59 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


How do you folks feel about PredictIt? Currently Moore is at 68%.
posted by cybertaur1 at 10:00 AM on December 12, 2017


Moore's history of putting the Ten Commandments in stone on courthouse lawns in defiance of federal orders

Which version of the Ten Commandments? The Muslim one?
posted by kirkaracha at 10:01 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


How do you folks feel about PredictIt? Currently Moore is at 68%.

Clinton was at 82% the day of the election.
posted by chris24 at 10:03 AM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


They're terrible in such a consistent way that it can only be someone's deliberate choice. I doubt it's mere incompetence, however incompetent it makes them look.

I think that media people are just not in the world of red-staters-eating-at-diners and they know it. They want to appear unbiased, and they know that there's this whole other world of voters that they aren't normally in contact with. Their effort to maintain an appearance of lack of bias is the endless Redneck Safari.
posted by Jpfed at 10:11 AM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


I'm trying to track down the legal docs for the rulings. There's this twitter thread with the court's emergency stay granted, but the details aren't in it.

There's a link in this comment in the main USPOL thread (direct link, pdf warning).

Disruption is the backup argument, the main one is that the plaintiffs don't have standing and the defendants don't have the authority to implement the injunction and basically the law doesn't matter when the GOP is on the line.
posted by solotoro at 10:11 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


As for NPR, I can't help but think it's because the people who run it are mostly liberal (if perhaps squishier and more right leaning than I'd prefer) and therefore to them the interesting question is "why vote for Roy Moore?" To them, to you, to me, voting for Doug Jones is so obviously the right choice that talking about it is, frankly, kinda boring.

Hell, a few days ago on reddit I asked conservative people there why they'd vote for self admitted pedophile Roy Moore. I didn't ask any liberal people why they'd vote for Doug Jones because, again, to me the question just isn't that interesting. I already know the answer, while either my worst suspicions about Moore voters are true, or they've got a motive I don't understand and either way I'd like confirmation.
posted by sotonohito at 10:12 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


To them, to you, to me, voting for Doug Jones is so obviously the right choice that talking about it is, frankly, kinda boring.

And this is going to apply to any $SANE_CANDIDATE and that's a problem.
posted by Jpfed at 10:14 AM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


The constant interviews with Trump or Moore supporters for the last year and a half now don’t spring from a desire to disseminate their views far and wide. Reporters think their audience is Jones supporters, and they think we find the Moore supporters bizarre and alien. I’m not sure they’re even wrong. It’s not happening because NPR is some kind of crypto-Bannon outlet.
posted by chrchr at 10:15 AM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Order granting preliminary injunction (pdf from Scribd available):
All counties employing digital ballot scanners in the Dec. 12, 2017 election are hereby ORDERED to set their voting machines to save ALL PROCESSED IMAGES in order to preserve all digital ballot images. This order applies to those machines that have such a setting and does not apply to any machine that does not allow for processed images to be saved.
So, an argument of "complex tech" would be deeply flawed here. Their argument was that the officials in question "do not have authority to maintain such records or to require local officials to do so. Plaintiffs therefore lack standing, the Circuit Court lacks jurisdiction, and the order is a nullity. Although a nullity, it will, if not stayed, cause confusion among elections officials and be disruptive to an election scheduled for tomorrow."

Greg Palast's website includes both the original stay and the new Supreme Court AL ruling: TRO Saves Alabama Senate Race Ballot Images — Well, ALMOST!!!

The respondents can reply, within 14 days... but that doesn't save the ballots. From what I can sort out, it looks like the paper ballots go into the shredder and the images aren't kept; they just have the count total to work with. :(
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


How do you folks feel about PredictIt? Currently Moore is at 68%.

It was crazy pants wrong about Trump, don't ask me how I know.
posted by RolandOfEld at 10:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Absentee requests were definitely way up.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Christ, what an asshole Has there ever been an update since the Diebold voting machine days (2004), when the CEO promised Ohio to Bush? Or the ease with which the machines can be hacked? Is there a new oversight committee or some new laws to protect against turnout manipulation? Did the technology/responsibility shift to some bipartisan/public authority?

No.

No.

No.

And... no.

Basically if you're in an all electronic voting area the answer is "voting machines are proprietary hardware, their software is a trade secret, you can't see anything at all about how they work, and you're a bad person for asking."

In theory electronic voting could be secure, verifiable, and relatively tamperproof. In practice the way electronic voting is handled in the USA is a deliberately opaque system that seems to be very easily cheatable.

At the last DefCon hackers got into voting machines in mere minutes. They're as far from secure as it can possibly get. Most voting machines provide absolutely no human readable paper trail that could be used to audit the vote and it's been shown that mostly what they do is just keep the votes in a spreadsheet (or if you're really lucky a very simple database) without even a timestamp for each vote just a running total.
posted by sotonohito at 10:18 AM on December 12, 2017 [26 favorites]


More than six-in-10 voters (61 percent) — including a plurality of Republicans — think the Senate should expel the embattled Moore, who has been accused of pursuing and molesting teenage girls while in his 30s.

No way in hell the Senate expels Moore. None. Zero. He's a more-or-less reliable R vote, so long as they throw him a legislative bone now and then. Oh, there might be a dog-and-pony-show of an "investigation", but it will be just for show (and, a chance to publicly hammer his accusers, should they be called to testify and actually submit to a room full of hostile Republicans.) Roy Moore will be a Senator as long as Alabamians will have him, I'm afraid.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:22 AM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


ErisLordFreedom The current process, the one the Supreme Court of Alabama upheld, involves shredding the paper ballots the very instant they've gone through the scanner, deleting the scanned image the very instant it is counted? Seriously? Their entire process boils down to "trust us, we've counted accurately and no you can't check"?

Yeah, I've changed my mind. I don't suspect that they're trying to cover up massive cheating, I am now 100% convinced that their objective is covering up massive pro-Republican cheating.
posted by sotonohito at 10:23 AM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


Do any of you have ideas about which political organizations are most effective?

The Bus Federation has orgs in a few states and focuses on youth GOTV efforts. I’ve worked with them, so I’m pretty biases but I think they’re great.
posted by Grandysaur at 10:24 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I've changed my mind. I don't suspect that they're trying to cover up massive cheating, I am now 100% convinced that their objective is covering up massive pro-Republican cheating.

entropicamericana's (eponysterical) law: never attribute to incompetence that which can be attributed to republican malice
posted by entropicamericana at 10:28 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


He's a more-or-less reliable R vote, so long as they throw him a legislative bone now and then.

Not saying they'll expel - it's doubtful - but if he is, an appointed replacement by the Republican governor will also be a reliable R vote without all the baggage. As will a sane Republican that would probably win the special election.
posted by chris24 at 10:30 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


So, that's contrary to what the ACLU of Alabama had said. I'm not saying it's wrong, but I'd like to hear more.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:30 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


current process... involves shredding the paper ballots the very instant they've gone through the scanner

I don't know. One of the lawyers fighting for the preservation of images said something like that, but I have't looked into the details of the process.

But yes, I get the impression that they don't normally keep enough documentation, paper or digital, to check against the digital counts.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:31 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


>> The current process, the one the Supreme Court of Alabama upheld, involves shredding the paper ballots the very instant they've gone through the scanner, deleting the scanned image the very instant it is counted? Seriously?

> So, that's contrary to what the ACLU of Alabama had said. I'm not saying it's wrong, but I'd like to hear more.


Yes, if true, this is not just crazypants, it is actively malicious.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:32 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I wonder if it varies by county or even precinct? You see a lot of inconsistent practices out there.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:33 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Every so often someone notices that UK elections are all run with paper and pencils and someone says something about how quaint it all is.
Yeah, this is exactly why we have hand counted paper ballots, which are then kept for a year after the election.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 10:36 AM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


Their argument was that the officials in question "do not have authority to maintain such records or to require local officials to do so. Plaintiffs therefore lack standing, the Circuit Court lacks jurisdiction, and the order is a nullity. Although a nullity, it will, if not stayed, cause confusion among elections officials and be disruptive to an election scheduled for tomorrow."

To translate: "No matter what you say, we're not going to follow the court order. We'll just say we can't command the local election officials to do anything and sit on our heels. But some of them might think they're supposed to save the records, and create confusion, so please erase any doubt about this whole 'integrity of the ballot' thing, thanks!"
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:42 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


You have the Monster Raving Loony Party and our system still makes less sense
posted by delfin at 10:43 AM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


"Twice-impeached theocrat" is a fine descriptor for Moore. Fine indeed.

On Democracy Now, Amy Goodman describes him as "Accused child molester Roy Moore". Which also really cuts to the heart of the matter.
posted by rocketman at 10:45 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Anecdotally hearing long lines at many locations.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:46 AM on December 12, 2017 [23 favorites]


NPR keeps talking to Moore supporters, but fail to talk to anyone who supports Doug Jones

I’m not overly confident of this conclusion, but I tend to think that your average well-read, left-leaning journalist doesn’t see much point in talking to Jones supporters because there’s nothing interesting there. For them, it’s obvious why someone would support an upstanding and competent candidate—the real mystery is why you’d back the radical pedophile. We saw the same thing with Trump vs Clinton, and the innumerable followup reports on why people voted for Trump and how Trump voters feel now. I can’t think of a single “Who are the Clinton voters?” piece, even though she got three million more votes. NPR and other outlets are perpetually explaining the conservative mindset to liberals/moderates, while right-wing outlets explain the conservative mindset to conservatives, leaving precious little space on the airwaves for a good faith explication of liberal thinking.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 10:50 AM on December 12, 2017 [69 favorites]


Anecdotally hearing long lines at many locations.

May they all get to vote.
posted by Artw at 10:51 AM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


your average well-read, left-leaning journalist doesn’t see much point in talking to Jones supporters because there’s nothing interesting there.

Aaaand this is probably what lost us the 2016 election. Reporters should be interviewing Jones supporters and saying, "ok, aside from 'he's not a pervert,' what do you like about Jones? His approach to taxes? To judicial appointments? Is he good with tech? Supports the rights of people you care about?"

Media orgs need to be saying, "what do you want the good guys to DO, other than not be evil?"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [74 favorites]


Media orgs need to be saying, "what do you want the good guys to DO, other than not be evil?"

To be clear, I agree completely. It’s a devastating blind spot for the media. I just don’t think it’s an intentional move.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 10:58 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Anecdotally hearing long lines at many locations.

There were no lines at my polling station at 11:45am.
posted by LoveHam at 11:02 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


WAR OF THE ANECDOTES BEGINS
posted by Chrysostom at 11:02 AM on December 12, 2017 [78 favorites]


From an IT perspective saving the scans of two million ballots is simply not a big or expensive problem

A problem that does not SEEM to be argued but exists is metadata and permanency. Once a digital record exists it can be assumed to exist forever and to whomever wants to buy it. Given data is written in order and may even have a sequence number on the scan combined with the metadata of phone location and the time of the location, who voted for whom may be able to be determined later.

Examples of such use of old data: who was at the pro communist sponsored anti nazi rallies in the 1930's or the hunt for Donald Trumps dad at KKK rallies.

Given the stance of the court system "its a business record" and then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ some firms will make bank on the old records being repurposed. And until someone DOES abuse records like that, no one is gonna give a damn.....officially.
posted by rough ashlar at 11:04 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Just from my social media feeds (and here), I'd love to see more interviews of the people in the "I'm not crying, but I just voted for the first time" video and "I was anti-gay but am now protesting Republicans because of my daughter's suicide", which are (probably) pro-Jones but more interesting than your standard "local liberal supports Dem" voter . We also got a lot of interviews of "Black people for Trump", but I'd love more interviews of minority Democrat supporters!
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 11:05 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


They already picked Moore over Luther Strange, a stalwart conservative Republican.

Well, to be fair, we already knew the GOP base (i.e., those who vote in primaries) were batshit. We're talking the larger population in the general.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:06 AM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Chrysostom is the official Anecdote Collector for Ward 1.
posted by delfin at 11:07 AM on December 12, 2017 [55 favorites]


Here's interviews with some Republican voters for Jones: 1, 2.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:08 AM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Chrysostom is the official Anecdote Collector for Ward 1.
posted by delfin at 2:07 PM on December 12 [4 favorites +] [!]


Here's interviews with some Republican voters for Jones: 1, 2.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:08 PM on December 12 [1 favorite +] [!]


Checks out
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:12 AM on December 12, 2017 [52 favorites]


Chrysostom - I like those - that first one, especially, said that Jones is better qualified and that he "represents the state." She didn't talk about actual issues, but she also didn't say "I'm just voting against Moore because ugh." She did says he believes he's a sexual predator, but went on to say Doug Jones could do the job better.

For cross-party votes, that's as good an endorsement as I could want. For Dem voters, I'd love to see them say why they like Jones other than "he has a D in parentheses after his name."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:13 AM on December 12, 2017


She's also wearing a Patagonia top.
posted by lovelyzoo at 11:17 AM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]




For Dem voters, I'd love to see them say why they like Jones other than "he has a D in parentheses after his name."

I agree -- the barber shop owner NPR interviewed made much the same claim -- but at the same time, Democrats should start pushing the message that Republicans' behavior has shown they are not to be trusted with power, period.

"Let's stop pretending that 'partisanship' is, well, a bipartisan issue. Republicans are trouncing on every norm, and it's because they know they can't win without cheating. If we want fair play, we have to punish the cheaters. I'm voting Democrat. For fair play."
posted by Gelatin at 11:18 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


jferg, I was just writing this up (ninja'd!) - Twitter thread on how voter suppression works: So I voted but let me tell you a quick story about this here special election:
We literally JUST had an election that I voted in. Drove home and everything.
I have voted at the same place all my life. Even when I've lived elsewhere, I've driven home. Or twice, I've done absentee.
But because this election is high stakes, suddenly I and tons of others in my small town were marked as inactive.
Folks who have lived here longer than I've been alive....inactive.
So they make the inactive people go to a special table to fill out a form and guess what fam?
If you don't remember your birth county you can't fill out the form. Sucks for you if you were born out of state like me.
BUT YA GIRL PEEPED GAME SO SHE BROUGHT HER BIRTH CERTIFICATE LIKE A BAWSE
Y'all they literally tried to play me like I was a punk. Imagine all the NORMAL people who don't travel with additional ID.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:21 AM on December 12, 2017 [101 favorites]


I don't understand the way young people talk these days, but I do like the way they vote.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:26 AM on December 12, 2017 [32 favorites]


Democrats have to get serious about voting rights reform in every place they hold power, and federally it should be the TOP priority if they ever retake control. There shouldn't EVEN BE such a thing as an "inactive voter list", much less that requires additional action to get off it. Every person should be registered to vote, automatically, and indefinitely. The election official's role should be limited to checking that the voter is on the list, and that's all. Anything more gives unconstitutional power to local Republicans to disenfranchise people of color and Democratic voters generally.

Democrats have to make these arguments, loudly. Because Republicans are stealing elections because we aren't.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:40 AM on December 12, 2017 [88 favorites]


but went on to say Doug Jones could do the job better.

Maybe I've said this before, but that idea was part of the reason why HRC was my first Democratic vote. If I'm hitchhiking, I'm not gonna pick a ride based solely on where someone says they're going, it's going to be first based on who looks like a safe and reliable driver who can actually get the (safe and reliable) car somewhere.

And then, if I can stretch the metaphor a little further, where I thought I wanted to go started sounding a little sketchy, and the guy driving there in his wreck of a jalopy didn't really seem to understand cars or directions or even roads, really, and this nice woman over here has some cool ideas about other places to go that actually sound pretty neat!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:40 AM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


I feel like this is a desperate attempt to “prove” that those who are democrats and those who associate themselves with the democratic parties’ agenda as the demons of society is what has made this race present itself as such an incredible struggle between the two candidates. Most would say that we see people falling like birds in a coal mine with accusations of sexual misconduct all over the country and that Roy Moore should not be immune to accusations. The difference is, money is involved. Hollywood would lose money if they harbored sexual predators. In this case, the Republican Party (and their supporters) believes they would lose money if they don’t harbor their sexual predator. Of course, this is merely my opinion.
posted by Yellow at 11:43 AM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Based on the polls and analysis by Survey Monkey, 538, etc, I think one of the reasons it's hard to make a solid prediction for this election is that the likelihood distribution is weirdly skewed. If turnout is like some of the other special elections in November and if the cellphone numbers and likely-voter models are correct, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones won by 5 points; on the other hand, if the 2016-weighted models or the Georgia special (with a similarly weak Dem candidate in a high-attention election) are the model, then a Moore win by a couple points seems plausible. Given the polling aggregate, it would look like a Moore win of a point or two is the most likely scenario, but I would be very surprised if Moore wins by more than a couple points, whereas I wouldn't be that surprised if Jones wins by 5. So the likelihood distribution is this weird skew with a pile of its mass around 1-2 points for Moore, but a much longer tail in the Jones direction. It makes it much harder to come up with a single point prediction, but I guess if I had to bet, I would put money on Moore but save a chunk for a Jones win well outside the spread.
posted by chortly at 11:45 AM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I had a nice stress-free morning doing some Christmas shopping. On the way home I listened to the NY Times podcast The Daily and they had some news clips from Roy Moore's career-- including the Anderson Cooper interview where Roy compares homosexuality to bestiality-- but what stuck in my head is an anonymous man reacting to the removal of the Ten Commandments by screaming, "Put the 10 Commandments back. You ain't taking my 10 Commandments, you ain't taking my Bible, and you ain't touching my faith." Nobody is taking "his" 10 Commandments, he is free to display them in his home and in his church and on his clothes, he can chant them all day long but somehow the idea that they HAVE to be displayed in the courthouse became a symbol of power for Christians & Roy Moore became their champion.

The brothel anecdote at last night's rally for Moore just boggles the mind. I would think that Political Speaking 101 would include: Do not tell humorous anecdotes about brothels featuring underage girls but if you must do that, do not emphasize how pretty the girls were.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 11:46 AM on December 12, 2017 [53 favorites]


I would think that Political Speaking 101 would include: Do not tell humorous anecdotes about brothels featuring underage girls but if you must do that, do not emphasize how pretty the girls were.

To bastardize Orwell, eventually the party will have to proclaim that there's nothing wrong with rape and prostitution of underage girls, and their voters will be expected to believe it; the logic of their position demands it.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 11:50 AM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Father protesting outside Roy Moore rally talks about losing his gay daughter at age of 23 to suicide. "I was anti-gay myself. I said bad things to my daughter, which I regret."

That's former Alabama House Representative Nathan Mathis, who I first heard of when I read somewhere a 2006 public radio interview he gave while running for governor. He talked about his daughter and gay rights in the interview, which is transcribed in page 35 in this book.
posted by nicebookrack at 11:52 AM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Another anecdote from a voter who says she and roughly six other people in the polling place were told they were "inactive" and had to cast provisional ballots: "It’s not that we’re not showing up to vote. We’re being suppressed."

Wonkette is updating an article on All The Fuckery They Think They Can Get Past Us In Alabama throughout the day, collecting these anecdotes.
posted by zachlipton at 11:53 AM on December 12, 2017 [50 favorites]




Are provisional votes likely to have any effect on the outcome or are they just thrown away for the purposes of "calling" the election? Answers based on normal course of events and maximum R finterference and fuckery appreciated.
posted by Artw at 11:57 AM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Here's an AL.com article on the court decision, seeming to indicate that paper ballots will be kept, it's just really inconvenient to do recounts with them.
But [SOS Merrill] did state that though the state does not preserve the digital ballot images, it does maintain the original paper ballots.

"The records for federal elections are required by law to be preserved for 22 months after the election occurs," Merrill said.

But Duncan [attorney for plaintiffs] said that "the paper ballots aren't really what's counted" unless there is a statewide recount, which would be "cost-prohibitive" if the state were ever to undertake one.
So, it's sounds like a bad, politically motivated decision, but maybe not really catastrophic.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


paper ballots will be kept, it's just really inconvenient to do recounts with them.

Oh good. And if there's a need for recounts, the lawyers arguing for preservation of digital images have an easy claim for next time: "Look at how much time was wasted recounting these by hand! We had an easy digital collection, and it was blocked! You are wasting the taxpayers' dollars by not clicking a checkbox on the computer!"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Artw: "Are provisional votes likely to have any effect on the outcome or are they just thrown away for the purposes of "calling" the election?"

This is based on the Virginia election, but I think this is pretty standard:

* Election night, the precincts count the regular votes and hold on to the provisional votes. They then report the regular vote totals in (in Alabama, they actually drive these in to a judge in the county seat).
* The state reports the initial totals.
* The counties have a couple of days in which provisional voters need to come back in to prove their vote was valid (i.e., come in with ID or whatever). Normally, there aren't that many provisionals, but maybe not here.
* Final results including any approved provisionals are reported to the state and certified.
* Recount challenges happen here.
* Final result is certified and winning candidate can be seated.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


WTF is wrong with NPR? Seriously, WTF is wrong with them?

Almost every time I listen to NPR early in the morning I hear a blurb advising that the Kochs are sponsors. Nothing I hear on there surprises me anymore but sometimes I do have to turn it off when it starts going too wingnutty.
posted by fuse theorem at 12:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


If you are unexpectedly told your registration is inactive, or are given any trouble re-activating (you can do so at the polls), call 1-866-OUR-VOTE immediately. #AlabamaElection

I hope there's a poll watcher at EVERY LOCATION with this information. If not, someone should be blasting this information to everyone there.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


From my tiny sweet mother in law re: arriving to vote on a horse:
"Well kids DO like horses."
posted by Uncle at 12:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [59 favorites]


At the last DefCon hackers got into voting machines in mere minutes.

Voting machines and how much people care are fine examples of:

1) Overton window
2) Ignoring people 'till no one cares
3) 2 party us VS them system benefiting the 'ruling class'

When "Bush stole the election" how many people cared about what Bev Harris had to say? Once 'the other parties guy' got in, how many people who cared about what Bev Harris had to say and kept saying didn't matter so much?

Military drones or the war on terror would be further examples of people being concerned about an issue where they stopped being concerned with the faceplate changed on the "leadership" from one letter to another and then became concerned again when the faceplate did a change back.

Good on Bev Harris and the people of DefCon for taking a stance and KEEP taking a stance.


(for those of you "new" to the issue Bev Harris is of blackboxvoting.org
posted by rough ashlar at 12:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


Cannot find a better link (I'm sure it will show up) -
Roy Moore 'riding a horse' to the polling station.

Y'all...
https://www.facebook.com/politico/videos/10155120675936680/
posted by hillabeans at 12:20 PM on December 12, 2017


Horse Twitter comes for Roy Moore

I KNOW THIS ISN'T THE POINT BUT ROY MOORE IS AN AWFUL RIDER, PUT YOUR FUCKING HEEL DOWN AND GET YOUR LEG UNDER YOU AND STOP HAULING ON YOUR HORSE'S MOUTH YOU GODDAMN PEDOPHILE IDIOT
posted by emjaybee at 12:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [133 favorites]


Fox's apparent "strategy" of trying to make a Jones victory seem assured to depress voter turnout seems to say way more about how Republicans treat their civic obligation to vote than it does seem to be likely to have any effect.

I don't vote only because I think my vote will turn an election. I vote because it's how we fucking run shit. Overwhelming wins serve to nail losers to the fucking wall. Coming in close but losing sends a message that the winner has no mandate.

Mostly, what I'm hearing from Fox is deep fear. Fear that their voter suppression efforts only work under certain situations that are increasingly out of sync with the current political landscape.
posted by odinsdream at 12:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


From emjaybee's link:

the way he's holding the reins is legitimately bizarre and that horse is confused as fuck

I'm far, far, far from an expert rider but holding the reigns properly was something my grandfather (who served in both the horse and armored flavor of cavalry in WWII) drummed into my head big time. That and cinching the girth properly.

Anyway, can confirm, solely based upon that video alone he's bad and should feel bad for chosing that mode of transportation to anywhere at all ever.
posted by RolandOfEld at 12:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Horse Twitter comes for Roy Moore

I'd been avoiding images or video of this ridiculousness because ew Roy Moore but having just seen the video...

I haven't ridden a horse since I was in middle school and even I can tell that the man can't ride a horse. Like, I was legit worried (for a given value of "worried") that he was going to fall off. I thought the Horse Twitter tweets were going to be all technical, measuring his form in millimeters and getting nitpicky about styles but nope. He just plain cannot ride a horse, like at all.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


It bears repeating that Fox polls are among the best in the business with almost no partisan lean. If the Fox polls say Jones is leading it's because they actually believe Jones is leading and with data to back it up. They may well be wrong but they're not lying.
posted by Justinian at 12:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Horse Twitter comes for Roy Moore

I KNOW THIS ISN'T THE POINT BUT ROY MOORE IS AN AWFUL RIDER, PUT YOUR FUCKING HEEL DOWN AND GET YOUR LEG UNDER YOU AND STOP HAULING ON YOUR HORSE'S MOUTH YOU GODDAMN PEDOPHILE IDIOT


It's really irritating when this doofuses try to perform masculinity with stuff like horses and guns and it's clear they have no idea what the fuck they're doing. But then neither do any of their voters, so it doesn't matter. I mean, this fuckstick is wearing a felt cowboy hat in Alabama*. Set aside that Alabama isn't really known for their cattlemen; do you have any idea how hot that thing has to be outside in the summer? Anybody with a lick of sense is wearing a straw hat, but I imagine that'd look too Mexican for Roy.

Smedleyman had the best comment on this performative hickularity.

*Like David "Fifteen Pieces of Flair" Clarke wearing one in Wisconsin. How many cattle are you herding in the Milwaukee metro, dumbass?
posted by leotrotsky at 12:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [44 favorites]


If you are unexpectedly told your registration is inactive, or are given any trouble re-activating (you can do so at the polls), call 1-866-OUR-VOTE immediately. #AlabamaElection
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:57 AM on December 12 [18 favorites +] [!]


If many regular voters in certain precincts are being told their registration is "inactive," then it should be possible to track down who is responsible and determine whether illegitimate activity has taken place. Provisional ballots are only counted if the person has time and inclination to return to the poll with the requested documentation. The problem is that to remedy the situation fully the election would have to be rerun, and that's a pretty high bar to clear.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


But Duncan [attorney for plaintiffs] said that "the paper ballots aren't really what's counted" unless there is a statewide recount, which would be "cost-prohibitive" if the state were ever to undertake one.

It’s not cost-prohibitive. We did a paper-ballot recount when Al Franken was elected for his first term. It took several months (because of the various legal wrangling between both candidates) but it was done. It is expensive, true, but freedom ain’t free.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


A friend commented on Facebook:
He’s clearly never ridden a horse before. lol at him wobbling around acting like he’s on motorcycle. And it’s gaited!! A FUCKING BABY CAN RIDE A GAITED HORSE!! Poor pony.
I love my friends.
posted by hanov3r at 12:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


That horse looks so angry and bewildered. 2017 is even bad for our hoofed friends.
posted by winna at 12:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


I would say "fuck him and the horse he rode in on" but that horse deserves so much better. It can't yell "HEY I DIDN'T ASK FOR A THEOCRATIC RECTUM ON MY BACK" so it gets a pass.
posted by delfin at 12:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


Interesting thread on what's been done to activate African-American voters for this election.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


That horse looks pretty young, I'm worried for it.
posted by Artw at 12:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Animals recognize their enemies.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


You know that part in Pee-wee's Big Adventure when Pee-wee tries to ride a motorcycle?

The way he disappeared behind that building I was pretty much expecting the horse to appear from the other side without him.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


#PostcardsToVoters successfully reaches every Democratic household in Alabama

I wrote 98 of those postcards (and hand-crafted the postcards themselves so they'd be memorable and the kind of thing people might want to put on their fridge).
posted by joannemerriam at 12:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [64 favorites]


Interesting thread on what's been done to activate African-American voters for this election.

Imagine if we did this for every election.

Now imagine if we did the same thing with other groups that tend to vote progressive, like young people and women.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [35 favorites]


I haven't ridden a horse since I was in middle school and even I can tell that the man can't ride a horse.

I went to primary (kindergarten) on horseback, and spent much of my teens roaming the mountains on the most wonderful Eriskay one could ever meet (damn you horse cancer!).

That said I am utterly clueless as to proper technique, apart from that above all else you need some sort of empathy/connection.

Which the pictu...

OFFS just watched the videos.

Get that man the fuck away from anything with a heartbeat.
posted by Buntix at 12:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [23 favorites]


NYT live results page is now up.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


NOT THE DAMN NYT NEEDLES AGAIN!
posted by zachlipton at 12:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


NYT live results page is now up.

NOOOoooooooooooo......

I get heart palpitations every time I see that thing.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


It was pretty pleasant on Virginia election night!
posted by Chrysostom at 12:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Nothing will ever make up for watching it slowly and inexorably move towards 100% Trump on election night. Nothing. I will die with that sight branded across my memory.
posted by Justinian at 1:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [87 favorites]


A FUCKING BABY CAN RIDE A GAITED HORSE!!

I learned on gaited horses as well, hell my grandfather's prize and joy until his health took him was a Paso Fino he purchased towards the end which is basically the Cadillac of gaited horses (not getting into a debate about Tennessee Walkers but there's serious ethical concerns with the latter), and... well, yup, can confirm, is easy. /horsederail
posted by RolandOfEld at 1:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


If I learned at least one thing from this whole election, it's what a gaited horse is and how to not ride one. Thanks, MeFi.
posted by numaner at 1:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


What timeish EST will we likely know the results? I'm trying really hard to ignore this but it seems that I care about what happens more then I wish I did.
posted by Jalliah at 1:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


First results are 8:15, per NYT
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 1:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I'm trying really hard to ignore this but it seems that I care about what happens more then I wish I did.

Just remember that, Alabama being as deep red as it is, a Moore victory is very dog-bites-man; it tells you little except maybe a sad story of the power of partisanship. A Jones victory, on the other hand, would be remarkable.
posted by Jpfed at 1:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


The Jones campaign is reporting high turnout in Jackson and Montgomery counties. Democratic strongholds.

The New York Times is estimating that 1.3 million people will vote in this election. That's about a third of all reported registered voters in Alabama.
According to the Alabama Secretary of State's office, Alabama set a new record for voter registrations ahead of the 2016 presidential election next week. The total number of registered voters: 3,330,802.
...
According to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2015 there were 4,858,979 people living in Alabama. That's only an estimate, extrapolated from the last head-count in 2010, but it's the best made-up number we've got.

According to those same estimates, 1,102,988 of those residents were under the age of 18, and therefore ineligible to vote.

That leaves us with 3,755,991 potential voters. Again, it's an estimate, but it should be close.

Of those, as many as 286,000 have felony convictions, which could bar them from voting.

Now we're down to 3,469,991 potential voters.

Head-counts of undocumented immigrants in the state range from about 65,000 to 121,000, but the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are about 137,000 non-citizens (legal and illegal immigrants, neither of whom can vote) living in Alabama.

Now we're down to 3,332,991 potential voters ...

Of whom, the Alabama Secretary of State's office now says, 3,330,802 are registered to vote.

If the Secretary of State's office is correct -- Alabama has registered 99.9 percent of all eligible voters.
Which is possible, but very, very unlikely.
posted by zarq at 1:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Just remember that, Alabama being as deep red as it is, a Moore victory is very dog-bites-man; it tells you little except maybe a sad story of the power of partisanship. A Jones victory, on the other hand, would be remarkable.

+1. "Normal" would be a Republican landslide. Even a narrow Moore victory would be ominous for the Republicans, especially given their trouncing in Virginia. They will always have their base, but if a sizable contingent of educated, suburban whites regrets their Trump voting and starts peeling away from the Republicans - again, as happened in Virginia - it's a bad sign for 2018.

TBH I'm worried the most about dirty disenfranchisement tricks - ErisLordFreedom's voting anecdote got to me, as how many people travel with that much documentation? I am concerned - and not in the McCainesque furrowed-brow way - that as Republicans lose support their dirty tricks are just going to ramp up, because they can't win without cheating.

And, Justinian, I won't ever get over the election night vote tracker either. I'm out of Ambien, so if I want to sleep tonight, I can't look. I swear, election night PTSD is a thing that ought to make it into the DSM-5.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Remember that it is incredibly remarkable that ANY of these special elections to replace Cabinet appointees are competitive. The GOP specifically picked people from districts/states they thought they could easily defend. Alabama? Price's district in Georgia? This is meaningful.
posted by mcduff at 1:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [29 favorites]


If the Secretary of State's office is correct -- Alabama has registered 99.9 percent of all eligible voters.

Somebody went to the solutions at the back of the book and worked that math problem backwards. That's a paddlin'.
posted by RolandOfEld at 1:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


not sure if this has been linked yet, but fwiw...
How Steve Bannon Rescued Roy Moore’s Campaign Against All Odds
posted by kliuless at 2:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


The dials are back. With an easter egg.
posted by brentajones at 2:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


AL’s registered voters will include the recently deceased and people who’ve moved and not updated, both because it was recent and because they moved out of state.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:10 PM on December 12, 2017


I'm not looking it up because I don't care, but Florida has cattle and cowboys and Alabama probably does, too. And it's freezing down here--we had what counts as a "winter storm" where it got cold enough that I had to cover the orange tree and I'm sitting here in a wool overcoat because it's like fifty degrees in the house but it's Florida and therefore I refuse to turn the heat on. Anyway, so it's cold enough up there that he would definitely look even dumber in a straw hat than he does in that felt hat, which is plenty dumb, seeing as how he's a judge, or anyway he is sortof, not a wrangler. I'm hoping he rides off by himself and falls under the horse. "What happened to our candidate?" [Sybil Fawlty]: "Well, I'm afraid it got trodden on!"
posted by Don Pepino at 2:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Seems like all you have to do to be a Republican strategic “mastermind” is be shamelessly amoral enough to tell huge lies to people who are desperate to believe them.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


Happened to me -- went to the same location where I voted in the last two Presidential elections and found that I was mysteriously now marked "inactive" on their list -- never had a problem before. Had to put my name on a list then fill out a form requesting a provisional ballot -- not a problem, except as someone noted above, you have to include the name of the county where you were born, which maybe not everyone knows off-hand. Then the vote (paper ballot) goes into a special envelope that you have to put into a different special envelope and drop into a special box. I almost didn't notice that there was a place on the outside envelope where I was supposed to enter the line number on the first list where I had signed my name.

I joked with my daughter (her first time voting) that someone in Montgomery had seen my comments about Roy Moore on Metafilter and singled me out to be made inactive. Ha Ha, big joke - then I came to this thread and found that I'm not the only one. Hmm.

Anyway, myself, my daughter and my son all voted today, so there are at least 3 Goobers who voted for Doug Jones.
posted by TwoToneRow at 2:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [90 favorites]


For those traumatised by the NYT page, the Washington Post also has a tracker.
posted by Pallas Athena at 2:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


CNN exit poll says 49% think accusations against Moore are true, 45% false. 42% favorable of Roy Moore, 55% unfavorable. Jones favorability is 49%/49%. This seems goodish but can be a problem if people are voting for Roy anyhow because they expect him to be replaced with another Republican.
posted by floam at 2:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Shelby County seeing high turnout among young and black voters.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


Remember that it is incredibly remarkable that ANY of these special elections to replace Cabinet appointees are competitive. The GOP specifically picked people from districts/states they thought they could easily defend. Alabama? Price's district in Georgia? This is meaningful.

Meaningful to DNC fundraising efforts, possibly. But every Democratic loss, no matter how closely fought, is still a win for a Republican.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Yeah, okay. But even close losses encourage more Democrats to run. And every dollar the right spends on seats that should be safe is a dollar they don't have on marginal seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [36 favorites]


TwoToneRow, please make sure you report that to the 866-OUR-VOTE hotline. Collecting verified stories from people who have had trouble at the polls is an important part of being able to take legal action against voter suppression.
posted by zachlipton at 2:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [57 favorites]


Meaningful to DNC fundraising efforts, possibly. But every Democratic loss, no matter how closely fought, is still a win for a Republican.

And meaningful for the midterms. If these traditionally very safe GOP races are competitive, it suggests that the Dems have a chance in almost every race.
posted by mcduff at 2:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


floam: "they expect him to be replaced with another Republican"

Why would they replace someone who can win an election even when accused of being a pedophile?!

I mean, I know they don't believe in evolution, but that is clearly a creature that has adapted to survive in their environment.
posted by Riki tiki at 2:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Dang, 1) it's nice to hear of a few other Alabamians here on the site, I thought BitterOldPunk and I were on a shorter list than apparently is the case and 2) the fact that both of you had to cast provisional ballots is, while an admittedly small sample size, concerning to say the least.
posted by RolandOfEld at 2:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Deep South MeFi Meetup, y’all!!
posted by thebrokedown at 2:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


538's Harry Enten cordially reminds us that early exits aren't worth anything.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


RolandOfEld: Dang, 1) it's nice to hear of a few other Alabamians here on the site

MeetUp reminder: if you want to get more people together, 1) keep track of local folks who haven't geo-located themselves in their profiles, and 2) directly MeMail everyone in your area (making note of #1).
posted by filthy light thief at 2:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


We had a discussion about this in the old thread - AL SOS confirms that if you vote straight party and then vote for a candidate, the candidate is the vote that counts.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]




I think the fundamental question in this election is "Is child molestation worse than abortion?" And unfortunately, I suspect that there is a large number of people who think that it is not. It's also the view of most conservative Catholics, especially in the US.

Reversing their stance on abortion was one of the smartest things the religious right ever did.
posted by Hactar at 2:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


I think the fundamental question in this election is "Is child molestation worse than abortion?"

I think additionally the question is "Can girls/women be believed?" Look at the numbers. A huge percentage of Moore supporters don't believe the allegations.
posted by mcduff at 2:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I was scheduled to travel during today's Alabama special election and so voted early. Now I'm sad not to have an "I VOTED" sticker. Hang in there, fellow Alabamians. May the odds be ever in our favor.
posted by sgranade at 2:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


TwoToneRow, please make sure you report that to the 866-OUR-VOTE hotline.

That's not just me saying so: they explicitly want to hear from people who were unexpectedly told their registration is inactive.
posted by zachlipton at 2:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [32 favorites]


I don't know, seems like the fundamental question in this election is "Are women first class citizens who can vote and do what they want with their bodies and minds"
posted by localhuman at 2:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Twitter exchange of the day:
@ktumulty: Early exit polls show John Kerry in the lead.

@johnkerry: Too soon, Karen...too soon.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [104 favorites]


CNN [Twitter video]: Roy Moore campaign spokesman responds with silence when asked if he knew people can be sworn in with a text other than the Christian bible

This has to be seen to be believed.


I never thought I'd see a human 404 Not Found error.
posted by Servo5678 at 3:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [103 favorites]


That's a great question, but I don't think the answer to that question is going to determine the election today, localhuman.
posted by floam at 3:00 PM on December 12, 2017


I never thought I'd see a human 404 Not Found error.

He is, in a literal sense, slack-jawed.
posted by codacorolla at 3:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [43 favorites]


Whoa. How dumb can some of these right-wingers be? From Wisconsin Representative Gwen Moore's Twitter:
Another #RoyMoore supporter just called my office posing as an @AP reporter.

Once their cover was blown they started screaming & called me & my staff the n-word & other racial slurs.

I won't be intimidated.

I won't stop speaking out.

You will not shut me down.

Believe it.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [63 favorites]


That Jake Tapper clip is exquisite. I’ve watched it like eight times and I keep finding sparkling new facets.
posted by theodolite at 3:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


elected official. three terms
posted by The Hamms Bear at 3:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Servo5678: "I never thought I'd see a human 404 Not Found error."

It's the logical failure state for 204 No Content people.
posted by Riki tiki at 3:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Tapper: "...the law is not that you have to swear on a Christian bible, that is not the law"

Moore Surrogate Dude: *blink* *blink*
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


538 liveblog is up.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I’m on my phone in a shitty area so can’t watch the video, but from Twitter it seems Moore’s spokesman also answered “probably” when asked if Moore thinks homosexuality should be illegal. Alrighty then. VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 3:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


That video is really incredible for demonstrating how dumb these people are. He literally thinks it's the law because that's what he's seen and done himself, being totally unaware that it was because he's Christian and those he's seen are Christians. It's just, absolutely amazing.
posted by odinsdream at 3:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


What's a good site to watch the returns by county? I grabbed 538's geeky benchmark spreadsheet and stuck it in a Google Drive spreadsheet to try to track the percentages.
posted by booksherpa at 3:22 PM on December 12, 2017


No, she's not trying to make some sort of cute paradox: Roy Moore arrives on horseback for Alabama vote as sister says 'every single woman is lying'
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


I'm betting that he wants it to be the law plays into it too.
posted by mrgoat at 3:22 PM on December 12, 2017


You don't have to swear on a Christian Bible: That might be a slack-jawed look, or it might be a we-have-our-next-election-theme-we're-gonna-win look. Mr. Ten Commandments is gonna run with that one like it's news.
posted by clawsoon at 3:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Hey, can I nerd out for a second at my realization that the _04 HTTP status codes are weirdly coordinated?

104 doesn't exist.
204 is empty.
304 isn't any different.
404 isn't there at all.
504 gave up trying.
posted by Riki tiki at 3:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [33 favorites]


Riki tiki, is that from Garfield Without Garfield?
posted by clawsoon at 3:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


500 internal server (servant?) error
posted by j_curiouser at 3:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


i'm confused - the bible says that thou shalt not seethe a kid in his mother's milk, and has rules about what threads one can mix and all sorts of stuff like that, but ...

there's no rule about mounting a horse's ass on a horse's ass?
posted by pyramid termite at 3:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [26 favorites]


From the thread for the Tapper video, I learned that John Quincy Adams was sworn in on a book of law rather than a bible, and that Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Pierce and LBJ did not use a bible either.
posted by maggiemaggie at 3:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [36 favorites]


booksherpa: "What's a good site to watch the returns by county? I grabbed 538's geeky benchmark spreadsheet and stuck it in a Google Drive spreadsheet to try to track the percentages."

Ha, me too!

Definitely not the AL SOS website, which is terrible. Really, I think the liveblogs and the usual Twitter suspects. Probably someone will mention a county's tally here in the thread pretty quick like.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


On further research, it seems that Franklin Pierce also used a book of law, Theodore Roosevelt did not use anything, and LBJ used a Roman Catholic missal on Airforce One.
posted by maggiemaggie at 3:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


About the horses. Moore is acting like the cheapo circus artists that traveled about Europe when I was a kid. It's inaccurate to say he can't ride. He is maltreating the horse and creating drama, but that is the point. The poor ponies are badly fed, ungroomed and torn about in awful equipment, but this is not out of ignorance. Moore, like those artists of the bad old days, wants to create the illusion that he is a strong man handling a wild animal and he mishandles the horse deliberately in order to agonize it so it fights back so it will look wild and he will look strong. But with the hard bit and his overweight, he can remain in control until it literally rolls over him.
Here, you don't see that type of bullshit horse molesters much any more because they were all reported for cruelty towards animals. But I suppose that if he can get away with molesting children and contempt of court, cruelty to animals isn't even on the board.
posted by mumimor at 3:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [75 favorites]


If you're watching the stunned-silence Moore surrogate video, please also take note of his impossibly-thin tie knot. Is it a Southern thing? Can anyone account for it?
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Hey, can I nerd out for a second at my realization that the _04 HTTP status codes are weirdly coordinated?

You may also like
posted by rhizome at 3:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


there's no rule about mounting a horse's ass on a horse's ass?

Unfortunately not, I think as long as they don't mount him on an ox they're in the clear, biblically speaking.
posted by contraption at 3:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I keep waiting for someone to swear on Copernicus' De revolutionibus orbium coelestium, but it never happens.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 3:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


The Washington Post fashion critic Robin Givhan has some thoughts on Roy Moore's outfits, Roy Moore rode to the polls as a cowboy after spending an entire campaign in costume:
Politicians use clothing as costume all the time, but during Moore’s campaign against Democrat Doug Jones, the Republican threw himself into his costumes with fervor. There can be something beautiful, sentimental and inspiring about big hats and faded denim; a guy on a horse in the middle of a field; the sweep of an unspoiled plain. The vista is an expression of hard work and freedom. It speaks to an intimate and respectful relationship between man and nature. The emotions stirred up can be positively spiritual, and no small number of artists have dedicated themselves to exploring such mysticism.

But that’s not how Moore used such imagery during the campaign. An alleged sexual predator, Moore exploited the beloved myth. He laid claim to cowboy hats, jeans and old-fashioned Americana and declared them representative of his brand of politics — a variety that is predicated on shaming one group of citizens while deriding another, that speaks of Old Testament wrath and an eager willingness to cast the first stone. His politics had his wife feebly defending their integrity with the damning opening phrase: “We have very close friends that are …” Moore wore his cowboy hats with a Woody-action-figure vest and then accessorized the ensemble with a handgun, which he brandished during the campaign. Would a true cowboy treat a firearm with so little care and respect? Moore’s ensemble became a joke on “Saturday Night Live,” which saw in it the costume of an emotionally stunted child molester, or the uniform of Jim Crow sheriffs who wore their cowboy hats as emblems of their privilege, their self-proclaimed righteousness and their authority to terrorize.

Moore made Americana read as cruel, judgmental, ruthless and full of rage.
posted by peeedro at 3:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


why can't we just have politicians do the honest thing and swear on a stack of 20s?
posted by pyramid termite at 4:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


peeedro: There can be something beautiful, sentimental and inspiring about big hats and faded denim; a guy on a horse in the middle of a field; the sweep of an unspoiled plain. The vista is an expression of hard work and freedom. It speaks to an intimate and respectful relationship between man and nature.

I dunno if cowboy imagery is quite so unproblematical as all that. The game was never "Cowboys and Unspoiled Plains". Neither was the reality.
posted by clawsoon at 4:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


The "probably" video that chris24 linked includes an absolute GEM of a statement from the Moore surrogate - "You people want to take the whole two or three thousand years of our history and y'all just want to throw it out the window".

o.0
posted by hanov3r at 4:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


I believe in Alabama. You should too.
posted by effugas at 4:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


"You people want to take the whole two or three thousand years of our history and y'all just want to throw it out the window".

This makes complete sense if you're familiar with Evangelical historiography.
posted by clawsoon at 4:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


McConnell: Strange to stay in Senate until end of current session. No matter what happens, McConnell's going to make sure neither Jones nor Moore gets in the way of his tax cuts.
posted by zachlipton at 4:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


>Roy Moore campaign spokesman responds with silence when asked if he knew people can be sworn in with a text other than the Christian bible

The really painful thing about this is that he clearly thinks he's got an ace up his sleeve, that he's Thunk One Up that will absolutely stymie and confound all opposition. It reminds me of nothing so much as these remarks by John Cleese.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 4:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


McConnell: Strange to stay in Senate until end of current session. No matter what happens, McConnell's going to make sure neither Jones nor Moore gets in the way of his tax cuts.

Chris Hayes [via Twitter]: Remember: a Supreme Court justice had to be denied a hearing for 300 days so the "people can decide" but the tax bill must be voted on before the new senator is sworn in.
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [106 favorites]


From the Birmingham portion of al.com, this youtube video analyzing counties to watch for Doug Jones.

Short version: Obviously the "Black Belt" and Jefferson County, but also Madison and Shelby, Republican counties that Strange beat Moore in, plus Mobile and Tuscaloosa, counties where Romney won and Moore lost in 2012.
posted by booksherpa at 4:38 PM on December 12, 2017


McConnell: Strange to stay in Senate until end of current session. No matter what happens, McConnell's going to make sure neither Jones nor Moore gets in the way of his tax cuts

As the majority party in the senate, can the GOP refuse to swear in the new senator from AL indefinitely?
I mean it’s probably unconstitutional but we’ve seen what they’re willing to do if they think that no one will call them on it.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


I mean it’s probably unconstitutional

It is. The Supreme Court has spoken on this; a Senator who meets the age requirements cannot be refused a seat. He or she can only be expelled.
posted by Justinian at 4:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


This update from David Wasserman on 538's live blog is worth looking at. He's got a spreadsheet too!
posted by booksherpa at 4:46 PM on December 12, 2017


Text-banking Alabama is done. What a joy it was getting texts with confirmations of votes, encouragement, even many voter selfies (one with a baby that KILLED me; wish I could share)! So many wonderful folks hoping for a Doug Jones win tonight. Hoping it can come through!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 4:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [67 favorites]


It is FINISHED.

Doors knocked: 117
Voters driven to polls: 2
Campaign swag collected: all, including a light-up donkey pin, a raven sticker saying "NEVERMOORE", and approx. 6000 yard signs.
Comments to catch up on: 249

Please tell me there's been good (or at least amusing) news
posted by Rhaomi at 4:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [135 favorites]


No real news yet Rhaomi, but I think a lot of us found this guy on CNN pretty amusing. Thanks for everything you did!
posted by floam at 4:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


My personal swearing-in book would be Newton's Principia
posted by waitangi at 4:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


You guys are my heroes. Thank you for fighting the good fight!
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


I know this is from a significant fraction of a scaramucci ago, but there is a perfect moment in the "one of our attorneys is a Jew" video, where a screen grab shows Mrs. Moore doing some performative nonantisemitism while Mr Moore, through a tragic combination of expression and tie-knot adjustment, performs a perfect comic, "Ulp!"
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


a Senator who meets the age requirements cannot be refused a seat.

Yeah, but we're dealing with norm-breaking rules-benders here. They can't refuse to seat him, but can they schedule his seating for an indefinite future date? Mitch has already decided to punt it to a more convenient time, which I didn't realize he could do. What if he decides it's never convenient?
posted by jackbishop at 5:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


My personal swearing-in book would be Newton's Principia

I would swear on the United States Constitution and look smug as fuck while I did it, so it's probably just as well I don't run for office.
posted by Faint of Butt at 5:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


My personal swearing-in book would be Newton's Principia

Mine would be Malaclypse the Younger's Principia Discordia.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [40 favorites]


Of course it would, erislordfreedom !
:)
posted by das_2099 at 5:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Moore +6. Prove me wrong Alabama!

(originally posted in the other thread. I flagged myself. kinky.)
posted by Justinian at 5:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


First 200 votes just hit the NYT tracker, time to start drinking everybody. Open up a javascript console/web inspector and type 'USE_JITTER = true' to get the fun twitching needle.
posted by floam at 5:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


With the polls closed, the full exit polls are out. I'm not convinced they're particularly meaningful, but do scroll down to see McConnell's 16% favorability in Alabama.
posted by zachlipton at 5:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


A Canadian question: I there any sort of county-by-county first-past-the-post thing going on in this election, or is it a straight count of the popular vote across the whole state?
posted by clawsoon at 5:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Nate Cohn has some insights into the NYT needle:
1) This model has less information than the other Upshot 'dial' forecasts. Unlike VA/GA-6, the live model is running on counties, not precincts. Unlike '16, we can't borrow data from the rest of the country to help in areas with limited data.
2) That means more uncertainty and even volatility. Unlike VA/GA6/16, I would *expect* to see the favorite go back and forth throughout the evening in a close race.
3) I would not assume that higher turnout automatically means a better turnout for Democrats. If Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage, that cuts against their traditional demographic turnout disadvantage. Higher turnout could draw both marginal GOP *and* young/nonwhite.
4) There are a lot of different 'paths' to victory, given our limited knowledge of the electorate and close races in Alabama. One side could post seemingly disappointing results early, only to make-up for it by beating expectations elsewhere later
In short, lots of drinking tonight. And if you want something to drink about, 27% of white voters voting for Jones is top of my list (95% for black voters).
posted by zachlipton at 5:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Statewide popular vote full stop, clawsoon.
posted by Justinian at 5:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Nate Silver: "exit polls — which again, you should take with a few large grains of salt — show Jones getting just 27 percent of the white vote, which is better than Democrats usually do in Alabama but not quite as much as pollsters probably thought he’d need to win."

Dan Hopkins: "Both Margolis and I found that when people declined to participate, they were more likely to say the name “Moore” as they passed — and they also seemed more likely to have bumper stickers or clothes that suggested a lean toward the GOP. Democrats were definitely more excited to claim their vote."

Short summary from all of the commenters: It's a tossup. Jones doesn't look likely, but does look like a strong contender, and could quite possibly win.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Jones needs more like a third of white voters if he's going to win. Exits are notoriously unreliable for fine demographic breakdowns, of course, but 27% is too low. Well, unless black turnout was 35% of the electorate. But even 30% would be truly staggering.
posted by Justinian at 5:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Thank you Rhaomi. dogheart, you here?
posted by jointhedance at 5:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Unprecedented increase in black turnout coupled with even more overwhelming support from white evangelicals for the pedophile than expected to give him the win would be the most 2017 thing possible here.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


'What text would you swear in on' is a damn fine icebreaker.
posted by BS Artisan at 5:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Exit polls would have us believe late deciders broke heavily for Moore. How the fuck does that work? Well, I wasn't sure but once I learned he's a kiddy diddler I just knew he had my vote?
posted by Justinian at 5:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


They were impressed with his outstanding horsemanship.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I just found out about Pizza to the Polls, a twitter account that is sending pizza to any lines of people waiting to vote. I don't know why but that just warms my 2017-tired heart.
posted by mcduff at 5:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Exit polls would have us believe late deciders broke heavily for Moore. How the fuck does that work?

The Bannon link upthread explains it. Those voters let themselves be convinced that the accusations weren't true.
posted by clawsoon at 5:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Exit polls would have us believe late deciders broke heavily for Moore. How the fuck does that work?

"There was all this drama about him and I wasn't sure, but after a week or two it settled down, and I realized that was all old news. It doesn't matter how he used to flirt; he's married and stable now and that's all ancient history."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Exit polls would have us believe late deciders broke heavily for Moore. How the fuck does that work?

white people gonna white
posted by murphy slaw at 5:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [43 favorites]


(It's also visible in the exit polls themselves, in the do-you-believe-the-accusations question.)
posted by clawsoon at 5:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Well, I wasn't sure but once I learned he's a kiddy diddler I just knew he had my vote?

they saw minorities at the polls and that was worse than pedophilia to them.
posted by poffin boffin at 5:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


Rhaomi, thank you for all you've done! Relax with the beverage of your choice! I'm so proud of all the Alabama residents who have worked so hard on this campaign and getting out the vote!

A year old, but IMO relevant article by Greg Bluestein from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on how and why Alabama is so deep red. I'm going to be an optimist and say that, even if Jones loses, his being competitive in the race is something that should give Republicans pause. It will also mean that a fifty-state strategy is not a waste of money, and that tender little blue shoots in a field of red should be nurtured, not written off.

Even a crack in the red wall is a good thing.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [46 favorites]


White men went for Moore 74-23. JFC I hate my ethnicity and gender. We really need to be dethroned from the top of the social strata already.
posted by Talez at 5:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [49 favorites]


And if you want something to drink about...

15% of the people polled both a) thought the allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore were probably true, and b) voted for Moore anyway.
posted by tllaya at 5:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


We're not going to know the answer tonight. This is going to come down to recounts.
posted by Talez at 5:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I am really nervous about this race. Come on Alabama, please do the right thing...

Also, no matter how this turns out, can we all agree that Mothership Strategies should never again be hired to do anyone's email program? They are just terrible.
posted by SisterHavana at 5:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Black women voted 97-3 (!) for Jones. 94 points!
posted by Talez at 5:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [58 favorites]


we should elect more black women to do things.
posted by Justinian at 5:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [123 favorites]


Oh man, didn't get a screenshot in time, but 538 briefly showed Jones with 1mil+ votes and 99.6% of the vote. Now he's back down to 8k and 65.8%
posted by sideshow at 5:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


This NYT needle thing is pointless for Alabama. They dont have precinct results, only county results. Without knowing which precincts are reporting they have no way of knowing if Jones or Moore are beating expectations until the entire county comes in. But by the time entire counties are in we're gonna have enough total vote to see how things are going without a damn prediction.
posted by Justinian at 5:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


538 briefly showed Jones with 1mil+ votes and 99.6% of the vote

Hey, that guy that deleted Trump's twitter account must have got a new job!
posted by mmoncur at 5:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Is Jones expected to lead soundly early in the count (because of rural booths being slower to return or something similar)?
posted by acb at 5:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


The ticker at National Review showed that, too, so the prankster (or mistyper) is in deep.
posted by clawsoon at 5:40 PM on December 12, 2017


Is Jones expected to lead soundly early in the count (because of rural booths being slower to return or something similar)?

We literally have no idea. See my above post. We don't know which precincts are reporting. NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING.

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
posted by Justinian at 5:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


This NYT needle thing is pointless for Alabama. They dont have precinct results, only county results. Without knowing which precincts are reporting they have no way of knowing if Jones or Moore are beating expectations until the entire county comes in.

If that's so, this politico tracker is pretty odd.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:42 PM on December 12, 2017


This NYT needle thing is pointless for Alabama.

At least they got rid of the stupid needle animations that played before they showed you the actual results (getting my hopes up with every refresh in 2016).
posted by Gary at 5:43 PM on December 12, 2017


Can anyone comment on whether the number of write-ins is typical or higher than normal
posted by piyushnz at 5:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I am having to remind myself that if you don't hope you can't have your hopes crushed into despair.
posted by Justinian at 5:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


From Nate Cohn: It's still so, so, so early. But there's stuff for Jones to like in just about all of the returns, including all of the counties with multiple precincts reporting in rural AL.

*breathes heavily into paper bag*
posted by Justinian at 5:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


It's split by precinct over at the Washington Post.

But I still think it's way too early to tell anything for sure.
posted by lumpenprole at 5:47 PM on December 12, 2017


My prediction is that through some weird event all votes for Jones and Moore are declared invalid and it's discovered that all write-in votes are for Chrysostom.
posted by VTX at 5:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [69 favorites]


The MeFi store should carry brown paper bags printed with a graphic of the NYT needle and the letters JCPL.
posted by zachlipton at 5:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [37 favorites]


I am really trying to not get my hopes up.
posted by dogheart at 5:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Obligatory technical correction:

500 internal server (servant?) error

The word you're looking for is "servent"; it's a portmanteau of "server" and "client", and it refers to a program or device that acts as both a client and a server.
posted by shponglespore at 5:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


It's split by precinct over at the Washington Post.

I see 2016 precinct level results but not today. It is entirely possible that I'm stress-hallucinating though.
posted by lalex at 5:55 PM on December 12, 2017


I am at a child’s Christmas concert this evening and will be unable to monitor the JCPL in real time. I am uncertain if this is a good or bad thing.
posted by nubs at 5:55 PM on December 12, 2017


Being too cynical and pleasantly surprised is not more sophisticated than being too idealistic and disappointed.

Not more sophisticated, but maybe less emotionally draining?
posted by contraption at 5:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


That NYT page is a form of self-harm.
posted by Annika Cicada at 5:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


also, shoutout to Rhaomi. anyone that knocks on that many doors is a hero.
posted by dogheart at 5:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


So is a brown paper sack labelled "JCPL" wrapped around cheap booze.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 5:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Has anyone posted the needed picture of Pepe and Pedobear holding hands?
posted by ocschwar at 6:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


The tale so far is that Moore is showing big strength in the white rural counties and slightly beating his benchmarks, but there's not much return yet from Jones' strongholds so we don't know whether he'll beat his benchmarks there. But right now Moore has the slightest edge.
posted by Justinian at 6:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Neck & neck on the Politico tracker. Moore up with 50% vs. Jones with 48%, and 16% of the vote in.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I don't think anyone really needs that.
posted by mrgoat at 6:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Has anyone posted the needed picture of Pepe and Pedobear holding hands?
Heh. I just requested from my local photoshop guru. Will post if it comes through.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Justinian: "The Supreme Court has spoken on this; a Senator who meets the age requirements cannot be refused a seat. He or she can only be expelled."

It does look like there might be a very narrow loophole not to seat him, but I really doubt it would ever come in to play.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:16 PM on December 12, 2017


Next election I'm going to code up a "tracker" needle thing that just swings wildly from 100% blue to 100% red at random intervals, then tweet it all over.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [33 favorites]


A lot of Moore's returns are starting to tap out and returns from overwhelmingly blue parts of Montgomery and bluer Mobile are yet to start flooding in. This is looking better for Jones.
posted by Talez at 6:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Congratulations, T.D. Strange, on being the Future's Most Accurate Poll Tracker.
posted by mrgoat at 6:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Judd Legum‏
@JuddLegum

Good summary of election strategies:

Democrats trying to win white votes
Republicans trying to suppress black votes
posted by Room 641-A at 6:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [36 favorites]


T.D. Strange; your poll tracker can't be any worse than the absurd pile of linear algebra being stirred to make NYT's current "Projected Vote Margin" chart
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:21 PM on December 12, 2017


Some speculation that the results from Russell county have been reported incorrectly. The needled jumped like 3 points towards Jones when they came in but be wary in case it does turn out to be a reporting error.
posted by Justinian at 6:21 PM on December 12, 2017


Nate Cohn, however, says there might be a turnout problem for Moore. That Moore is beating his % targets but turnout is below target levels in his counties.
posted by Justinian at 6:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Just to take a big step back:

Democrats don't come close in statewide Alabama races. Regardless of what happens tonight, this is a good sign for 2018.

Eye. On. The ball.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [76 favorites]


Democrats don't come close in statewide Alabama races. Regardless of what happens tonight, this is a good sign for 2018.
On the one hand, that's true. On the other hand, Roy Moore is a terrible human being in so many ways, and it's ok to be appalled and upset if he wins a Senate seat. It doesn't bode badly for other elections, but it would still be legitimately depressing in its own right.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


As has happened so many times in this horrible year, I feel that we're forced to embrace the heightening of the contradictions, because... itshappening.gif
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Are Democrats countering the Republican use of religion with their own appeals to religious support? I don't know much US electoral history, but my casual recollection is that lots of religious leaders were explicitly on the side of the Civil Rights movement and similar campaigns. Why aren't they being asked to speak out against the pussygrabber or the childsnatcher?
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Hannity is crapping himself right now starting finger pointing on the GOP side. I think it's starting to turn. The stats geeks know that a Montgomery flood is coming and the remaining votes must be heavily D.
posted by Talez at 6:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


I don't know about whether Doug Jones losing will be interpreted as good for Democrats. There's a very strong tendency to reframe the entire race in terms of the victor. If Moore wins, it's Jones' fault and Moore's "controversies" ultimately didn't matter to the voters (who will be treated as a monolithic bloc). Even though the swing was 20-30% against him, a Moore win means Moore did something right and not 'Moore badly fucked this up but it's Alabama'. This cuts both ways: if Jones wins, it's because he's a charismatic candidate that knew how to speak to Alabama, Alabamian voters were repelled by Moore's sexual history and backwards views (again, treating everyone as a monolithic bloc), and the Republican party were fools for letting Moore wreck their chances.
posted by Merus at 6:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I don't know much US electoral history, but my casual recollection is that lots of religious leaders were explicitly on the side of the Civil Rights movement and similar campaigns. Why aren't they being asked to speak out against the pussygrabber or the childsnatcher?

The real pastors are speaking out. But religion in Alabama is a fig leaf for segregation not any sort of following of Jesus.
posted by Talez at 6:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Are Democrats countering the Republican use of religion with their own appeals to religious support?
Yeah, and it's very effective among black voters. It's less effective among white Protestants, and mixed among Catholics of all races.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


We're trying but no one gets excited about Episcopalian sanctuary churches or Roman Catholic encyclicals or Methodist soup kitchens or Presbyterian assembly motions or whatever.

It's the right-wing gospel-hijackers that always get the air time.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


Harry Enten: All these anecdotal reports of low black turnout from reporters turned out to be trash based on these returns. Black voters are turning out.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [40 favorites]


Josh Marshall at TPM flags this as important:

NYT realtime prediction widget [...] swung hard in Jones’ favor. I saw a number of people speculate that there had been some sort of reporting error. Here’s a tweet just now from a member of the team that runs it.

Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn): Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem. The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates–including two under 75% of our estimates. That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.


I'm going to get a stiff drink, I think.
posted by RedOrGreen at 6:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Liberal religious leaders also just tend to get written off as aberrations or totally ignored in the mainstream media, too, so their voices don't get out there as easily. Pater Aletheias totally nailed the phenomenon upthread, "NPR and other outlets are perpetually explaining the conservative mindset to liberals/moderates, while right-wing outlets explain the conservative mindset to conservatives, leaving precious little space on the airwaves for a good faith explication of liberal thinking."
posted by jason_steakums at 6:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [26 favorites]


I wrote my undergrad thesis on Episcopalian sanctuary churches! The religious left is absolutely out there, but I feel like the work they tend to do is a lot more quiet than what feels like the constant media screaming of the Evangelicals. Not being Christian myself, I won't venture to say what a better counter would be for the more left and/or democratic side. Personally, I think the kind of work Rev. Barber is doing with Moral Mondays is pretty stirring and mobilizing, but again, I'm not Christian.
posted by yasaman at 6:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


This tweet sums it up for me: "The Audacity of I’m Gonna Have a Fucking Heart Attack"
posted by mcduff at 6:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [32 favorites]


Hannity is crapping himself right now starting finger pointing on the GOP side. I think it's starting to turn. The stats geeks know that a Montgomery flood is coming and the remaining votes must be heavily D.

LET'S GO MONTGOMERY! ג‎ or נ‎!
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


It’s probably nothing but... a reporter friend in Washington just got called in for an “emergency meeting” at the Dept of Justice and when she jokingly asked if she could go in her sweatpants they said, “come in your pajamas, we don’t care.”
posted by lazaruslong at 6:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [56 favorites]


I opened 538 and promptly had a flashback to last year and noped the fuck outta there.

One day I’ll be able to look at live election results again but it is not this day.
posted by lydhre at 6:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


The betting markets have just taken a strong pro-Jones turn...
posted by Go Banana at 6:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


It's the right-wing gospel-hijackers that always get the air time.

Well, I'm just glad the Democrats haven't ceded the battleground. I really don't understand US evangelists: if you have an explicitly Manichean worldview then you have to open to the possibility that you're actually on the wrong side. And goodness knows, if you're being asked to support a pædophile in order to help billionaires steal money from the poor, YOU'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Um, so others are saying that this section of the NYT page means nothing? (Down to 65% since I snapped that.)

I am just a person in canada spending their evening following a senate race in Alabama [?!?] so like, I don't know, but the Montgomery and Mobile areas look so unreported compared to the rest that they would put Jones on top. There must be over a hundred thousand more votes for Jones waiting in those two.
posted by sylvanshine at 6:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Hannity often looks like he's leaving skid marks on his chair. I'd love to see a screen cap of the other people in the room's reaction when he learns that Moore won, should 2017 deign to give us such a holiday gift.
posted by wierdo at 6:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


538 says Moore is 4 points up with 55% reporting. That seems like a big lead?
posted by medusa at 6:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


God I hope so.
posted by rhizome at 6:45 PM on December 12, 2017


The reason for the uncertainty, I am given to understand, is that the cities proper are very Dem, but the suburbs tend to be hard right.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:45 PM on December 12, 2017


538 says Moore is 4 points up with 55% reporting. That seems like a big lead?

We're missing at least half of Birmingham's votes and almost all of Montgomery. Overwhelmingly black, overwhelmingly Democratic, overwhelmingly large. NYT reckons the remaining votes are D+15.
posted by Talez at 6:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


538 says Moore is 4 points up with 55% reporting. That seems like a big lead?

Depends on who has reported in, big cities still out.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


MSNBC is confirming that turnout in rural Republican areas is at 60% of 2016 levels. By contrast in the so-called "Black Belt"of mostly African-American counties there was very high turnout.
posted by zarq at 6:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


I'm going to get a stiff drink, I think.

I myself took a break from all this to imbibe a few choice drinks myself, how are things goi-

That NYT page is a form of self-harm.

-ing...... Well that's unfortunate... but what...

Next election I'm going to code up a "tracker" needle thing that just swings wildly from 100% blue to 100% red at random intervals, then tweet it all over.

Oh come on, it can't be....

The betting markets have just taken a strong pro-Jones turn...

FUCK IT ALL, I'm setting the Drinking Indicator to "Regret It Tomorrow" levels because this is just all too much for a sober person to bear.
posted by RolandOfEld at 6:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [26 favorites]


Well, part of it is that political liberals who are also deeply religious (hi!) have a pretty strong belief in the separation of church and state.

I can believe in the Resurrection and the Incarnation and all that shit without needing to impose my beliefs on everyone else in my country, thanks. If it's true we'll find out, and if not then no harm no foul.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [34 favorites]


"The Audacity of I’m Gonna Have a Fucking Heart Attack"

Maybe that's the book Doug Jones will put his hand on when he's sworn into office.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Three counties have definitely flipped from 2016; Pickens, Talladaga, and Butler. The Politico "vote shift" tracker is solidly on the blue side; and.... the NYT "Projected Vote Margin" chart just keeps heading south for Jones. I remember this shit from Nov 2016. JCPL offscale high.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Where did my fingernails go?!?

Oh, I ate them.
posted by Justinian at 6:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [47 favorites]


Moore's counties are done. Rural counties, not much to count. It's now a question of whether he can outrun Jones catching up to him. Not likely at the moment.
posted by Talez at 6:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Oh, I ate them.

We're eating cheese over here. Try that. It's a lot tastier.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


It's now a question of whether he can outrun Jones catching up to him.

Thank you so much for the relaxing imagery!
posted by rhizome at 6:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


NYT says Moore's lead just dropped to 2.5 points.
posted by emelenjr at 6:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Montgomery just dropped anywhere from a third to half its votes. Moore just lost 2 points off his lead.
posted by Talez at 6:55 PM on December 12, 2017


if you have an explicitly Manichean worldview then you have to open to the possibility that you're actually on the wrong side

Worldviews which allow you to seriously consider the possibility that they might be false or harmful have a tendency to select themselves out of the meme pool.
posted by Coventry at 6:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


538 has a 1.3% Moore lead.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:56 PM on December 12, 2017


Personally, I think the kind of work Rev. Barber is doing with Moral Mondays is pretty stirring and mobilizing, but again, I'm not Christian.

As another non-Christian, I agree 100%.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


2017 is the year that this Canadian found herself caring more about and election in
Alabama then she ever imagined was possible.
I need this to be over because my stomach is growling but I just can't handle pundits and tv news right now and in order to get to the food I have to pass through a room where MSNBC will be blarring because the folks are hard of hearing and I really just want Jones to win so I can feel like justice prevails just a little bit more than injustice.
posted by Jalliah at 6:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


Well, part of it is that political liberals who are also deeply religious (hi!) have a pretty strong belief in the separation of church and state.

Also, the Religious Right made a very specific decision some time in the 1970s or so, to go hard into political activism. And not just supporting particular issues of concern, but going beyond that to specific candidates and parties.

So they have really hitched their wagons to a political star--whereas the many other parts of the religious spectrum, not so much.

FWIW the provision in the current tax bill removing political restrictions on religious & 501c3 groups is very, very much related to this entire history of the Christian Right and Moral Majority type groups and their many descendants active today. In short, they want permission to become EVEN MORE politically active than they currently are.
posted by flug at 6:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


whoa, @Patrick Karl Merrill:
#ALSen Just got off the phone with .@JohnHMerrill about voter turnout. According to Alabama's Secretary of State, voter turnout was anticipated to be about 25%. Instead, he says it is currently at a little more than 50% and could surpass 1,000,000 votes statewide .@abc3340"
posted by lalex at 6:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [44 favorites]


538 now has Moore and Jones separated by less than a thousand votes.
posted by Jeanne at 7:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


I'm going to have an Alabama Heart Attack. Until this very moment, I thought that would be some kind of 4,000 calorie burger monstrosity.
posted by greermahoney at 7:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


wow that CNN video - that guy was just handed his arse on a plate, and all he could do was stare at the screen in disbelief
posted by awfurby at 7:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


As @ElectProject pointed out, this was malpractice by the SOS to underestimate turnout so much. Clearly in an effort to create lines and discourage voters.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Watching that NYT Projected Vote Margin tracker at the bottom of the page certainly does bring back unfond memories. But still, every time I see it and it's showing a projected margin instead of a win probability, I feel like we are making real progress, however grudgingly. I also realize I'm tougher than I thought. Yes, I can hope again, and yes, I will survive if those hopes are once again dashed.
posted by chortly at 7:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


On 538 jones just took the lead
posted by Lord_Pall at 7:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


NYT tracker just blasted to 74% chance of Jones.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


The NYT has just flipped from “the race is close” to “but paths to victory remain for Mr. Moore”.
posted by acb at 7:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


I don't know which model for voter suppression the NYT is using, but it seems that any prediction is heavily hinged on the total number of votes available to each county. I won't be surprised if the dial suddenly swerve red as the last votes are counted.
posted by runcifex at 7:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I do not trust this newfound feeling of hope. Last time i seem to recall it went poorly.
posted by Lord_Pall at 7:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [37 favorites]


wow that CNN video - that guy was just handed his arse on a plate, and all he could do was stare at the screen in disbelief

Somewhere I saw the video described as him having malfunctioned.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:08 PM on December 12, 2017


Why the hell does the NYT still have Moore in the lead. What is happening. I can't handle it.
posted by instead of three wishes at 7:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


It's gonna be within the number of write ins, isn't it?

Hello, Recount!
posted by Sphinx at 7:09 PM on December 12, 2017


For what it's worth, this JCPL sack of cheap wine tastes like a shoe. I'm doing this for you, Jones.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


I've been following MetaFilters election threads since early 2016, just now made an account. Happy to be here with y'all watching the madness.
posted by Post Disney Cannibalization at 7:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [172 favorites]


Also, the Religious Right made a very specific decision some time in the 1970s or so, to go hard into political activism. And not just supporting particular issues of concern, but going beyond that to specific candidates and parties.

The story as I understand it is that they had to change the channel after being defeated by the Civil Rights Act. In order to progress past their humiliation on the paths to power they had to find a new cause on which to hang their power.
posted by rhizome at 7:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


...tttcs tttcs tttcs tttcs tttcs tttcs tttcs tttcs...
posted by perspicio at 7:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [32 favorites]


The Atlantic has Jones in the lead by 4,236 votes, or 0.5%, at 79% percent reported.
posted by orange swan at 7:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I’ve got to assume write-ins are mostly disgruntled Republicans who wouldn’t vote Moore, right?
posted by zachlipton at 7:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


I would be drinking so much if I didn't work nights.


NYT picture data looks like most remaining votes out are from cities
posted by AlexiaSky at 7:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Almost entirely, yes.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Anyone who's on mobile and can't find the 538 total vote counts sidebar -- try requesting the desktop site. Their mobile site does not include the sidebar (for me anyway)
posted by Sauce Trough at 7:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Happy to be here with y'all watching the madness.
“I am glad you are here with me. Here at the end of all things ...”
posted by jferg at 7:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [33 favorites]


Why do 538 and Atlantic have 79% reporting while the NYT has 85%?
posted by saturday_morning at 7:12 PM on December 12, 2017


Official text banking for the campaign is over, but people are still texting and I'm still taking. People still rolling in to say they voted, to say thank you, to do a little text commiseration over the watch party. I've done over text campaigns before but, man, Alabama, you guys have the love.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 7:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [70 favorites]


Whatever happens I am going to have a quality drink.
posted by Songdog at 7:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]



I’ve got to assume write-ins are mostly disgruntled Republicans who wouldn’t vote Moore, right?

and Jill Stein supporters
posted by philip-random at 7:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


This is an election. It's about quantity, not quality.
posted by uosuaq at 7:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


tttcs tttcs...

For people who haven't been obsessively following these threads for 18 months, here's a handy guide to Political Thread insider jokes/acronyms/expressions-of-despair, etc...
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Somewhere I saw the video described as him having malfunctioned.

It is less than 24 hours until someone swaps out Tapper with Captain Kirk overloading a computer's logic circuits.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


NYT just now: "Roy Moore leads by 0.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reporting. "
posted by thefoxgod at 7:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


The tallies are neck and neck, with mostly the cities to report. Read into that what you will.
posted by acb at 7:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I will believe this when I see it... but it is looking good for Jones.
posted by azpenguin at 7:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Besides the usual suspects, I'm also watching the election results page at AL.com. It's not the fanciest webpage, but it's got up-to-date info.
posted by booksherpa at 7:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


The Atlantic has 87% reported at the moment. Jones is still in the lead, but by just 1,551 votes, or 0.01% of the total vote.
posted by orange swan at 7:17 PM on December 12, 2017


I'd like to thank the mods for reining in unnecessary chatter when nothing's going on and allowing a little free flow of chatter when it is.
posted by mollweide at 7:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


Please no recount. I can only afford to drink one night this month.
posted by johnpowell at 7:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


(tttcs isn't on that page, somehow?)
posted by unknowncommand at 7:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


“I am glad you are here with me. Here at the end of all things ...”

Metafilter, we could do much worse than be compared to Samwise Gamgee.

I named my son Sam in no small part because I wanted him to be a good man, like Samwise. We could use all the good men right about now
posted by lydhre at 7:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


The NYT tracker is at the edge of "Leaning Jones" and flirting with "Likely Jones". I don't know if I can take it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:19 PM on December 12, 2017


You probably can't all hear me from Philly but I'm yelling "DON'T JINX IT! STOP WRITING THAT JONES MIGHT WIN! YOU STOP IT RIGHT NOW!"
posted by mcduff at 7:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [31 favorites]


We are doing this despite every voter suppression tactic they can throw at us.

And Steve Kornacki on MSNBC is going to start spinning until he lifts off and crashes through the ceiling.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


(I mean, I know what it means, I'm just saying)
posted by unknowncommand at 7:19 PM on December 12, 2017


If this goes down to recounts and court cases, does that hand this thing to Moore on account of a republican judiciary?
posted by mrgoat at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


"Why do 538 and Atlantic have 79% reporting while the NYT has 85%?"

Essentially it's how fast they're loading the updated vote totals into their spreadsheets/tools/whatever. Generally you download them county-by-county, too, so it may just be a difference in what order they're hitting the counties on their tour-de-downloading.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017


NYT just now: "Roy Moore leads by 0.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reporting. "


WaPo has been more dampening than NYT or 538 all evening -- Jones was 0.5% behind Moore five minutes ago -- but they have Jones ahead as of ten seconds ago, by maybe 7500 votes (49.6% to 48.9%).
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017


HELLO SELMA! IT'S OVER!
posted by Talez at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


50 fucking points in Selma. God damn.
posted by Talez at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [35 favorites]


It’s not like tttcs worked in 2016. It’s time for a new superstition! I humbly suggest anything involving the beverage and/or snack of one’s choice.

Let’s do this.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Guys i think its happening.
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Stick a fork in it, it's done.
posted by acb at 7:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Jones is ahead and only D booths are left. I can't fucking believe it. From 97% of the vote for Sessions.
posted by Talez at 7:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


I just placed a bet on Moore online. If he loses I'll be happy to lose the money. If he wins I will buy myself a pint of ice cream.

I would donate my winnings to ACLU but I bet like $4 so ice cream it is.
posted by Tarumba at 7:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


tttcsheetcake
posted by perspicio at 7:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Isnt it close enough that the write-ins could call it? And am I being paranoid to think when the duke boys start counting those write-in ballots that they might miss a few?
posted by H. Roark at 7:23 PM on December 12, 2017


I... I can't log in to the wiki. HALP
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I'm just staying home tonight
Getting lost in that hopeless little screen
But I'm stubborn as those garbage bags
That Time cannot decay
I'm junk but I'm still holding up
This little wild bouquet
Democracy is coming to the USA
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


It’s not like tttcs worked in 2016. It’s time for a new superstition! I humbly suggest anything involving the beverage and/or snack of one’s choice.

I stress-ate an entire bag of Utz Cheez Balls this evening. I am happy to take one for the team and repeat this endeavour on future election days as required.
posted by halation at 7:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


Is it happening?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


It's happening.
posted by Talez at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


50 fucking points in Selma. God damn.

I have a dream.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [44 favorites]


Selma being the margin to win this would be poetic justice.
posted by azpenguin at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [85 favorites]


HELLO DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE. The lesson from tonight is, if you want to win, you need Black people to vote. Democrats aren't blue. They're black.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [145 favorites]


Guys SHUSH omg you shut your mouths until it’s actually over.
posted by lydhre at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


Popping in between latkes to hope Roy Moore’s lawyer is having a wonderful Hanukkah tonight.
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [74 favorites]


Write-ins are at 1.6%, fyi.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017


NYT have called for Jones.
posted by Talez at 7:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


If Selma is what tipped it to Jones, I will be so happy I will not even lodge a complaint with 2017's writers about their heavy-handed symbolism while shouting HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES WHITE SUPREMACISTS? SELMA. DOESN'T. COME. TO. PLAY.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [132 favorites]


Steve Kornacki just said he doesn't see where Moore finds the votes.
posted by chris24 at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Not happening according to 538.
posted by ocschwar at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Jones' lead is now outside automatic recount rage.

*adds second bag to the hyperventilation rotation*
posted by Justinian at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [29 favorites]


ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME
posted by medusa at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Wow, it really is looking like Jones will end up in the lead. The main question seems to be whether it's outside of recount range.
posted by wierdo at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017


Drudge calling it for Jones. (not gonna link)
posted by rhizome at 7:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Does anyone actually expect Moore to concede?
posted by johnpowell at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Not happening according to 538.

They're way behind right now. Missing 50,000 votes which are like 60% Jones.
posted by Talez at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017


Holy shit.
posted by kyrademon at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


AP called it Jones.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


AP just called it for Jones.
posted by maudlin at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


A.P. has called it for Jones.
posted by postagepaid at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


So, uh, who wants some cake?
posted by Aubergine at 7:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


A.P. have called for Jones.
posted by Talez at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Fox News called it for Jones. 🚨🚨🚨
posted by Justinian at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [35 favorites]


*exhales explosively*
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Washington Post have called for Jones.
posted by Talez at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


It's being called? Fuck me. Askme on choosing tasty hats in my future. Or cake. I choose cake.
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


NYT called for Jones as well.

Edit: Oh, I suppose they're just AP.
posted by Sphinx at 7:27 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I just wanted to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by lefty lucky cat at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [53 favorites]


chickens/counting &c - tread carefully.
posted by j_curiouser at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


oh you guys my heart
posted by triggerfinger at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


You no longer have to keep your hands, feet and hopes inside of the thread.
posted by AlexiaSky at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Woooooooooo-fucking-hooooooo!!!!!! What a marvelous, marvelous repudiation. Pleased as punch (for a second, at least).
posted by AwkwardPause at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


So jones lost?
posted by Lord_Pall at 7:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Okay, who is going to start the thread for the Iowa state Senate 3 special tonight?
posted by Chrysostom at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


I kid, i kid
posted by Lord_Pall at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017


Sophia A. Nelson mentioned earlier that three WaPo reporters went to report at Moore HQ and they were denied entry. Because Moore didn't like WaPo.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


*exhales*
posted by SansPoint at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


What do you think Jeff Sessions is thinking right now?
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [28 favorites]


When Donald said he'd get "tired of winning", he didn't realize how terrible his endurance is...
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


So did Hannity end up visibly soiling himself? This is the important question.
posted by wierdo at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Remember also that Trump went ALL IN for the pedophile. He put his reputation and political juice on the line and he ate shit. Sorry to put it that way but... screw him.

This is a massive loss for Trump, the loser.
posted by Justinian at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [157 favorites]


Virginia, now Alabama. Republicans must be terrified. That’s what you get for being fascist pedophile sympathizers, you fucks.

Now try to pass that tax bill.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [61 favorites]


Is this it? Did we do it? Isithappening.gif?
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


This and the VA elections almost make up for the pain of last year, holy crap :D
posted by Post Disney Cannibalization at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Predictit has Moore at 2¢, now's the time for any pessimists looking to get rich.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Yippeeee! Celebrate good times - come on!
(Let's celebrate.)
posted by joseph conrad is fully awesome at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Never in doubt. Don’t know what all the fuss was about.....
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


So Democrats, maybe you can fucking shut the fuck up about white racists who need to be wooed and lavish praise and attention on the Black people, other people of color, and the women who won this for you tonight. I know that’s gonna be hard on you, but Diane Feinstein and everybody else, please do this for the good of the nation.
posted by Bella Donna at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [257 favorites]


fucking alabama. 50 state strategy DNC.
posted by H. Roark at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [109 favorites]


I just got a WaPo alert; DOug Jones is projected to win.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Okay, who is going to start the thread for the Iowa state Senate 3 special tonight?
Looking pretty good last I saw.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


I cannot fucking believe this!!!! I never thought this was possible!!! I'm so happy for the people of Alabama!!
posted by great_radio at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


At times like these, I imagine myself standing just outside the White House holding a big sign plastered to the window, and that sign says "WE HAAAAAAAAAAATE YOOOOOOOOUUUU SOOOOOOOO MUUUUUUUCCCHHHHH TRUMP"
posted by Frowner at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [55 favorites]


*dances*
posted by leotrotsky at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


dadgum y'all
I'm from Alabama's cranky twin brother and I did not see this coming, I didn't at all, I just hoped it would be a rough ride for Moore
(and not on a poor horse)
here's hoping the ride really is over

I'm looking at the blue county on the map where Huntsville sits
clearly that's where all the rocket scientists settled down and had families
posted by Countess Elena at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


It’s not like tttcs worked in 2016. It’s time for a new superstition!

OK. This is where I have to come clean. I've discovered that wearing my favorite sweater is a political curse.

I wore it last November. We all know what happened. I almost wore it last month on election day but I didn't and that turned out well. So, for the sake of science, I didn't wear it today. Conclusive proof.

I apologize for 2016 and I promise to never let it happen again.
posted by mcduff at 7:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


What do you think Jeff Sessions is thinking right now?

Same thing he thinks every night... "Lordy but I do so hate black people."
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [74 favorites]


So is there any margin for ratfucking in the hope of a recount (and more ratfucking)?
posted by runcifex at 7:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


CNN just declared for Jones.
posted by sardonyx at 7:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


And the oil burned for EIGHT DAYS!

Happy Hannukah, everybody.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [143 favorites]


Also: Thank you, MeFites, for being here and congrats to those of you who voted in Alabama tonight.
posted by Bella Donna at 7:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Also, today is Doug Jones' 25th wedding anniversary. A very happy anniversary to him!
posted by triggerfinger at 7:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [88 favorites]


I'm from Alabama's cranky twin brother

Auburn? Is that you?
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Poor MSNBC, they're still pretending the race hasn't been called.
posted by Justinian at 7:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


And Fox is calling the race for Jones. Remind to re-block Fox after this.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


This is a massive loss for Trump, the loser.

This has me smiling.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Poor MSNBC, they're still pretending the race hasn't been called.

They don't ever want it to end. Kornacki is like James Brown.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Thank you everyone who did anything to make this happen!
posted by miguelcervantes at 7:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


I know every decent person in Alabama must be heaving a huge sigh of relief. Congratulations, you deserve this.
posted by lumpenprole at 7:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


Okay, who is going to start the thread for the Iowa state Senate 3 special tonight?

I just learned today after showing up at an empty polling place that my new address is like a block from being in this district. And I really wanted to vote against Carlin so that was a let down :/
posted by jason_steakums at 7:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Holy cow!!!!!!

Awesome!!!!!!!
posted by zarq at 7:34 PM on December 12, 2017


Husband and I can't grasp this. It's really happening?
posted by cooker girl at 7:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


TEXT BANK IS BLOWING UP! People who didn't even respond before are texting back now!!!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 7:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [91 favorites]


OK. Switching over to Fox News for hatewatch time.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


50 fucking points in Selma. God damn.

Just take a look around to Selma, Alabama.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Oh, they seem very sad. :(
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Won't someone please think about the poor working class white people?
posted by kirkaracha at 7:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


in a bar FULL of Jones volunteers

i am dead

(also deaf)

video to come at some point

haven't felt like this since 2008
posted by Rhaomi at 7:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [215 favorites]


I'd like to personally thank the 10 Alabamians I sent postcards to. Thanks, yinz guys, from up North.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [54 favorites]


So is Bannon going to blame Hillary and/or the Deep State?
posted by Napoleonic Terrier at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Chris Hayes: Congrats to two-shirted strategic genius Steve Bannon who deftly maneuvered the GOP into a crushing senate loss IN ALABAMA

lol.
posted by Justinian at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [166 favorites]


This rules
posted by edeezy at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


ThePinkSuperhero that sounds like such a wonderful and gratifying experience!!!
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


I want to do the text bank too (for future elections). How does one sign up?
posted by triggerfinger at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


So relieved. Thank you, Alabama.

Also: Dougie Jones!

If this is not a season 4 teaser of Twin Peaks,I don't know what is.

We can do this people! Hope feels so bittersweet!
posted by floweredfish at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Alabama
don’t need the rest of the union
to help them along
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Write-ins are at 1.7% and that's over the margin right now, thanks Nick Saban!
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


RE-DEDICATE THE TEMPLE, Y'ALL
IT'S LATKE NIGHT AND I'M BUYING
posted by saturday_morning at 7:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [43 favorites]


I made the risky move of hate-watching the Infowars live stream in hopes of getting a sweet dose of schadenfreude, and man did it pay off. They went from extremely confident of a 10 point Moore victory to complete certainty of a rigged election in less than half an hour.

Thank you to the good people of Alabama!
posted by dadaclonefly at 7:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


Now comes the interesting part.

McConnell said Strange will serve out the rest of the "session". Now with Doug Jones winning it'll be interesting to see what happens when Jones shows up to the door. Constitutional crisis incoming.
posted by Talez at 7:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


Fuck yeah.

Every race matters. Fight everywhere.
posted by nubs at 7:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [54 favorites]


Wow. I didn't expect this at all.

I just found out that the Dems didn't even have a candidate against Sessions in the last election. Imagine if they hadn't fielded a candidate this time? We need to contest every damn election.
posted by octothorpe at 7:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [103 favorites]


Wow, I've largely taken a leave of absence from Metafilter political threads for most of 2017 because well there is a limit to how much awful we can withstand but this is really a very very nice early Christmas gift.

Maybe Moore can take the time machine back the the 1850s now and leave Alabama alone.
posted by vuron at 7:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Is this real life? This gives me so much hope!
posted by Elly Vortex at 7:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


This is better than Karl Rove running around the studio demanding to see polls.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Trump supporters must be so tired of winning.

The people of Alabama will do the right thing. Doug Jones is Pro-Abortion, weak on Crime, Military and Illegal Immigration, Bad for Gun Owners and Veterans and against the WALL. Jones is a Pelosi/Schumer Puppet. Roy Moore will always vote with us. VOTE ROY MOORE!
posted by Coventry at 7:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Let's not get carried away. CNN is announcing massive cake shortages as we speak. This could be trouble.
posted by uosuaq at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Live-look into the campaign offices of every Democrat running against an Republican incumbent in 2018.
posted by sideshow at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Welp. All ya postcard chuckin' MeFites, take a bow.
posted by azpenguin at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


MSNBC... still hasn't called the race. I can't watch this anymore. Poor guys.
posted by Justinian at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]



We can do this people! Hope feels so bittersweet!


Exactly. The battle's won; the war is yet to come. Eye on the ball. Democracy is possible.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]




I said the only thing I wanted for Hanukkah was for Roy Moore not to get elected! It's a Hanukkah miracle! I'm crying tears of joy right now.
posted by Ruki at 7:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]




I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent AL by choosing to vote with the Senate Repub Majority.”

Bahahahaha
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [61 favorites]


Wow. Are we safely and absolutely over the margin of R fuckery and beyond the point where things like the inactive voter fuckiver can throw it?
posted by Artw at 7:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Let the recriminations begin. Heh.
posted by flug at 7:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Some dude at the Moore watch party just got on stage, looking really bummed, and said quickly "Go if you have to, I understand, but we're not calling it just yet."
posted by Theiform at 7:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


The Breitbart headline is gonna be “FOX NEWS POLL MOST ACCURATE”
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Shockingly, Fox News is actually covering the results. They are tossing Roy Moore right under the bus. The spin is that if this were any other candidate that the GOP would win, and really, this is a good sign for Republicans and Trump.

Five minutes was enough for me.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


I'm having a celebratory beer. I never do this but I'm doing it right now.
posted by medusa at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I'm going to sing myself to sleep ..

Sweet home Alabama, where the skies are so blue
posted by Dashy at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [46 favorites]


Also, steller strategist, that Bannon. A real visionary.

Final reminder:
@iDXR And let's do everything we can to protect the black women who saved Alabama, the Senate, the nation from Roy Moore.
posted by triggerfinger at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [122 favorites]


I had the pleasure of hearing Rev. Barber speak in person at a training session earlier this year, and one thing he said stuck with me. Someone in the room made a comment about Tennessee being a red state, and Rev. Barber pointed out that we don't actually know that, because we've never had a truly free and fair election here, what with voter suppression tactics in play. If everyone—EVERYONE—voted, then maybe Tennessee would be a blue state after all. We don't know!

I thought at the time that there was a lot of merit to that idea, and I think tonight's vote is further evidence that he's right. Focusing on GOTV seems to be working, especially when the targets of those efforts are people of color. I think we have a growing body of evidence that getting more people to the polls and ensuring their votes count is a better use of our time than trying to persuade the unpersuadable.
posted by timestep at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [125 favorites]


Fox News current spin: Roy Moore sucked THE WHOLE TIME and this isn't REALLY a referendum on Trump!
posted by girlmightlive at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Moore Victory Party changes the channel to MSNBC... all eyes on a bewildered Kornacki.
posted by pjenks at 7:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


This feels very good. Thanks to all who helped make this happen. Let’s do this all over the map in 2018.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


God, I needed a win tonight. I really think the GOP has overplayed their hand, and we're seeing some seriously energizing backlash. Time to celebrate!
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 7:42 PM on December 12, 2017


538 quoting Senate Leadership Fund CEO Steven Law: “This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running. Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco.”

Motherfucker, Trump dragged his own flaccid ass into this fiasco. I am so glad we are living in a time when people talk about the President of the United States as having less agency than a two-bit alcoholic propagandist.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [93 favorites]


I didn't let myself look at the news since five today, so uh. This is one fucking good piece of news to come back to.

Literal tears of joy right now, for what should have been a foregone conclusion.
posted by cjelli at 7:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


You guys can share any schadenfreude videos or Twitter tantrums if you have any.
posted by Tarumba at 7:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]




How appropriate. A miracle on Hanukkah. :)
posted by zarq at 7:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


Everybody dragging Steve Bannon is my new drug of choice.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 7:43 PM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


Cory Gardner's tears are delicious - .@NRSC Chairman @SenCoryGardner: “Tonight’s results are clear – the people of AL deemed Roy Moore unfit to serve in the U.S. Senate..I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent AL by choosing to vote with the Senate Repub Majority.”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Oh man, that's hilarious.
posted by zarq at 7:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Boy, remember how that guy on The Root said that Jones wasn't doing anything to attract black voters? Yeah.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Hey, I'm glad MSNBC isn't calling it. The networks call shit way, way, way too early.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


The spin is that if this were any other candidate that the GOP would win

Well, they're not wrong. But it wasn't. With Moore, Trump and the MAGA people bought the ticket and they're taking the ride.
posted by Countess Elena at 7:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


The last Democrat elected to statewide office in Alabama was senior Senator Richard Shelby in 1994, who quickly defected to the Republican Party. What a wonderful evening for the people of Alabama who deserve much better than any of Shelby, Sessions, or Moore!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Predictit has Moore at 2¢, now's the time for any pessimists looking to get rich.

Much better to put it in something safe like Bitcoin.
posted by scalefree at 7:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]




With any luck, this will cement my win for that "this is not a place of honor" nuclear waste warning sign.

A pictogram of Steve Bannon endorsing Roy Moore.
posted by Guy Smiley at 7:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Roy Moore Retires From Politics To Spend More Quality Time With Someone's Kid

Oh The Onion.... It'd be great if we could just not, but I get it. I get it. Maybe they'll do a poke fun at how AL voted type thing cuz more attention there would be great anytime we can get it.
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


One of my favorite things about this is the cnn.com headline...it's not "JONES WINS", it's "ROY MOORE LOSES".
Yes he does, CNN. Yes he does.
posted by uosuaq at 7:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


This is amazing. Thank you, everyone, so much.

I want, more than anything else, for Jones to be a great senator for his constituents, so much so that when the next crazy pedophile racist makes it through the AL primaries (and you know they will, the days of "sane" republican candidates are done), people won't even have to think before pulling the lever for Jones.
posted by maxwelton at 7:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


It's particularly hilarious that Gardner is saying that, given that his response to complaints about his far-right voting record not representing Colorado is to say that liberals in Colorado can be represented by the Democratic senator and don't need him.
posted by medusa at 7:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Straight outta Birmingham, Alabama: St. Paul & The Broken Bones, "A Change Is Gonna Come." What a night!
posted by MonkeyToes at 7:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


congratulations alabama, you managed to not elect a crazy racist pedophile, you get a cookie
posted by entropicamericana at 7:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Hi Post Disney Cannibalization! Welcome to the madhouse.

Thirding/Nthing the non-religious-person love for Bishop Barber and his movement. Democrats need a way to connect with religious voters and Southern voters, and I think he can play a leading role there if he chooses. He can also hold the Democrats to account, morally, which is important.

In these times, we need not to lose our own souls. If Trump brings out the worst in us, he's won. Hate, spite and schadenfreude are satisfying for a quick fix, but in the long term they are poisons. The far right is fuelled by those poisons; will we become like them?

We're in survival mode right now-- literally, survival with regard to the ACA, Medicare and Medicaid, Meals on Wheels, the social safety net and the lives that depend on those things. We fuel ourselves with whatever it takes to win the next fight-- or at least not lose-- and survive another day. But when the current evil has finally destroyed itself, who will we be? How will we rebuild? How will we lead?

Bishop Barber is one of the voices that can help with that question, I think.
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


Popped over to Breitbart’s election watch thread to see how they were taking it. Poorly to be polite. Like a nest of vipers on meth, who have all collectively just been kicked in the nuts is more accurate. Delicious.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


Yesterday my partner asked "hey is there anything you need for your birthday?" (this is normal for us, we're not so good with remembering the birthdays until pretty much the day before or sometimes the day of) and I said "what I'd like is not something that's under your control" and they said "which is?" and I said "Doug Jones whipping Roy Moore's ass in Alabama" and they said "wow, I want that for your birthday too!"

Happy birthday to me!

(Ok, ok, this is technically not an ass-whipping, and it's not my birthday yet in Alabama. But where I am, it is, so it counts!)
posted by inexorably_forward at 7:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [46 favorites]


Tomorrow is my office's white elephant party/potluck, and the potluck theme this year is "International: Bring something from your place of origin." My place of origin is Texas, so a while back I decided I was going to wow my coworkers with some kind of delicious but gut-busting Southern food. I've actually been dreading that decision all week, largely because of this election, and largely because this election has been making me stress out as self-identifying as being from the South.

What I have to say is this: Tomorrow there will be pimento cheese sandwiches for everyone, fuckers! Pimento cheese sandwiches for all!
posted by mudpuppie at 7:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [86 favorites]


We in my little postcard-writing group are jubilant and we’re all, We’re ready to GO! What’s next?!?
posted by thebrokedown at 7:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


YAY I love drinking because I'm happy instead of drinking to stave off emotional despair and existential defenestration.
posted by chaoticgood at 7:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [78 favorites]


This is such a wonderful day! Woohoo! A man who defended little girls is now in the Senate, and not one who abused them! Go crawl back under your rock, Moore you disgusting pedo. Congratulations on your win, Doug Jones!

This: So Democrats, maybe you can fucking shut the fuck up about white racists who need to be wooed and lavish praise and attention on the Black people, other people of color, and the women who won this for you tonight. I know that’s gonna be hard on you, but Diane Feinstein and everybody else, please do this for the good of the nation.

Should be framed and hung in every Democratic campaign building, and should be carried in all Democrats' wallets. DO NOT throw POC and women under the bus to catch the mythical Swing Voter(tm) - THEY don't exist. But WE do. And WE vote and do all the campaigning grunt work.

Donny Two Scoops, once again, shot himself in the foot with the Moore endorsement. I think he, and all the other Republicans who endorsed Moore or at lest remained quiet and complicit, will be scraping the stink off their shoes for some time.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [101 favorites]


Ok now let's do Ted Cruz. Texas, you're on the clock.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:51 PM on December 12, 2017 [101 favorites]


I just realized that we're going to have some major Trump-tweetage coming in overnight...brace yourselves, people.
posted by uosuaq at 7:51 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


I just realized that we're going to have some major Trump-tweetage coming in overnight...brace yourselves, people.

We have a Tweetcon 1. I repeat, Tweetcon 1. This is NOT a drill.
posted by azpenguin at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


thebrokedown: "We in my little postcard-writing group are jubilant and we’re all, We’re ready to GO! What’s next?!?"

Special elections galore!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


McConnell said Strange will serve out the rest of the "session". Now with Doug Jones winning it'll be interesting to see what happens when Jones shows up to the door. Constitutional crisis incoming.

McConnell really doesn't get to decide this. He is simply stating the obvious fact that it is in the hands of the Alabama Secretary of State, a Republican, who can dawdle a couple of weeks delaying official certification of the vote. Expect frivolous lawsuits as well. So in reality, McConnell is correct.
posted by JackFlash at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


I just signed up to volunteer for Brianna Westbrook, the trans woman candidate who's gunning for Trent Franks' recently vacated AZ-08 seat. It was great to put my name somewhere out of jubilation rather than a sense of despair or grim determination.

Now is a great time to roll up sleeves and get to work on 2018 by signing up to help out for whatever your most critical race is. Then we can all get back to celebratory drinkin!
posted by WidgetAlley at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [32 favorites]


the new betting market is, who does Trump blame? Women? McConnell? The media? Moore?
posted by Countess Elena at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Nice as this is for the state of Alabama, the thing that matters most for humanity is that Donald Trump is apparently the current President of the United States of America, and tonight’s astonishing result makes it much harder for any politician to support Donald Trump for reasons of pragmatism. What a glorious night for America and for humanity.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [36 favorites]


I'm still refreshing the NYT page help
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [23 favorites]


And I hope old Roy will remember
Southern women don't need him around anyhow
posted by emelenjr at 7:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [66 favorites]


the new betting market is, who does Trump blame? Women? McConnell? The media? Moore?

The USA today editorial is probably going to be the target of Trump's ire the next 24 hours but I've never seen Trump be limited to only one source of outrage.
posted by Talez at 7:53 PM on December 12, 2017


So what's going to happen in the US Senate, is that the Trumpo-McConnellians will rubber-hose every bill that matters to them before Doug Jones takes the seat, right?
posted by runcifex at 7:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


It's a Hanukkah miracle!
posted by MexicanYenta at 7:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


I went on the CBS live feed and they said they couldn’t call it bc it was too close. Wtf?
posted by gucci mane at 7:55 PM on December 12, 2017


I just realized that we're going to have some major Trump-tweetage coming in overnight...brace yourselves, people.

We know he's been very agitated about how Moore was shining light on his own assaults, and I'm sure he assumed approval for Moore would vindicate him. The tweets are going to get very, very nasty, I think.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


This past November 8th, I commented that I thought the near total Democratic/liberal sweep of the November 7th, 2017 U.S. state and municipal elections showed the beginning of the turning of the tide against Trump and the Republicans, and this election clinches it for me. The tide is definitely coming in. A Democrat just won in deep red state Alabama! The days when Republicans could run any stupid, abusive, bigoted asshole for office and win are over. Man, I even read the other day that polling in Paul Ryan's district shows he may not be able to keep his seat.
posted by orange swan at 7:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [22 favorites]


Jones arriving at his campaign party
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


So what's going to happen in the US Senate, is that the Trumpo-McConnellians will rubber-hose every bill that matters to them before Doug Jones takes the seat, right?

You'd think that but it actually becomes more difficult because now McConnell can only lose two instead of three and every senator in that chamber knows it.
posted by Talez at 7:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


I'm just enjoying the hell out of watching this livecast of Moore HQ. It's at least a third fewer now than half an hour ago but the nut image for me was after they put up the local Fox station calling it for Jones when the station cut to Jones HQ for a reaction shot, you could see the room deflate as they looked in on the victory party.
posted by scalefree at 7:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


In honor of the good people of Alabama I am cheering for Auburn for the rest of this football season! War damn eagle!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Roy Moore liked this election night better when it was younger.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 7:56 PM on December 12, 2017 [81 favorites]


So what's going to happen in the US Senate, is that the Trumpo-McConnellians will rubber-hose every bill that matters to them before Doug Jones takes the seat, right?

They have three days before the senate is scheduled to go into recess for Christmas. They're not back until sometime after the new year,
posted by nathan_teske at 7:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Jones: "I just don't know what the hell to say."
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


Yay! Congratulations everyone! Thank you to everyone who voted and campaigned and wrote postcards! You have literally changed millions of peoples' lives for the better tonight.
posted by melissasaurus at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


It will take a couple of weeks for the state to officially certify the results. Because it’s closer than the number of write-in votes, they will have to count all those write-in votes, which will take awhile.

Then the Senate will go home for Christmas.

New year is about when Jones will get sworn in.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


YES! YES! YESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I feel like it's unseemly to gloat at the naysayers, but I was SO upset by the performative despair, which seemed to come at the expense (among other groups) of women who, even though we knew much better than you did that preying on young girls was no impediment to his election, still dearly hoped to not see a pedophile seated in the U.S. Senate. So imagine that I am, in a friendly and loving way, waving my butt in all yalls faces rn. BOO-YAH!
posted by sunset in snow country at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


McConnell really doesn't get to decide this. He is simply stating the obvious fact that it is in the hands of the Alabama Secretary of State, a Republican, who can dawdle a couple of weeks delaying official certification of the vote.

He should just start showing up to work anyway. Worked for Mulvaney.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


""I've been waiting all my life and I don't know what the hell to say."" - Jones

... also Metafilter. Love y'all.
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Aww, tonight is his 25th wedding anniversay!
posted by Room 641-A at 7:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Wow! Unbelievable! Awesome!

Jones just mentioned that today is also his and his wife's wedding anniversary. What a great day!
posted by homunculus at 7:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


YESSSSSS! Congratulations to the voters of Alabama for doing the right thing!
posted by SisterHavana at 7:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


The tide is definitely coming in.

orange swan, I see what you did there.

Yay!
posted by ferret branca at 7:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [14 favorites]


Roll Tide!
posted by Captain l'escalier at 8:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


In honor of the good people of Alabama I am cheering for Auburn for the rest of this football season! War damn eagle!

You might want to wait to see how many write-ins Nick Saban got.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I don’t blame CBS for being cautious. I won’t believe there won’t be more fuckery until Jones has his hand on the book of his choice.
posted by zachlipton at 8:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Pedophile loses in a squeaker, but hell, I'll take it
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Just hit my favorite limit for the first time in months. I love you, Metafilter. I love you all.
posted by kelborel at 8:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


I am so fucking relieved. I might have been holding my breath for the last 7 days.
posted by Sophie1 at 8:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


In honor of the good people of Alabama I am cheering for Auburn for the rest of this football season! War damn eagle!

What? Huh? UA is still in it!!! Don't let AU fool you. UA > AU forever!
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


The cnn demographic exit polls are really stunning. Young voters and poc did this.
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:03 PM on December 12, 2017 [115 favorites]


Doug Jones: "To all my Jewish friends, Happy Hanukkah!"

Yes, it's off to a good start. : )
posted by SisterHavana at 8:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [58 favorites]


Please, please let the racial breakdown of this vote mean that we get drastically fewer thinkpieces about how we need to coddle racist white people over the next few months.

The implication that white people represent the only swing voters is a massive blind spot rooted in racism. There are plenty of non-black PoC who would be persuaded to swing their vote over, with far greater ease than white voters would, and the insistence on catering to white voters is actively detracting from energy that could be invested in actually reaping this low-hanging fruit. I'd like to see the Democratic party aim to get 100% of not just the Black vote, but the Asian and Hispanic vote as well - and not just because they're offering the "well, they'll ignore us instead of actively screwing us over" option.
posted by Conspire at 8:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [148 favorites]


You hear that, Kayla Moore? Doug Jones has multiple Jewish friends.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [73 favorites]


Thank you, everyone who turned out to vote for Doug Jones.

Thank you, everyone who worked for, called on behalf of, wrote postcards to help, took a public stand for, or donated money to his campaign.

And you know what? Thank you to all the conservatives who wrote in someone else or just stayed home. I might disagree with you on a lot, but I have respect for your integrity.
posted by kyrademon at 8:05 PM on December 12, 2017 [47 favorites]


So uh...what do we get for the other seven days
posted by saturday_morning at 8:05 PM on December 12, 2017 [56 favorites]


I feel the need to listen to this at high volume: The Tide is Turning
posted by jferg at 8:05 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


This race was so much about Roy Moore I don't think I've ever actually seen Doug Jones speak, and you know what? He's pretty good at it!
posted by theodolite at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Nes gadol haya po. (A great miracle happened there). Chag sameach, y'all!
posted by Sophie1 at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


Ok, here's what we do. Tomorrow, call your Republican senators and congresspeople and tell them that if they vote for the final version of the class-war tax bill, you will spend every free waking hour knocking doors for their opponent during the next election. Tell them that we now know we can win anywhere, and we are fired up, and we will make them pay if they attack ordinary Americans so they can give tax-breaks to billionaires. I don't know if the Republicans are scared, but they fucking well should be.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [154 favorites]


And when Jones put in for his candidacy months ago, he probably didn't expect that this was remotely possible...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Get CHIP funded. Yes, please!
posted by homunculus at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Doug Jones 2020
posted by robbyrobs at 8:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Moore headquarters party now has a sad young couple on stage singing the dirge-y hymn "Raise thy faithfulness" a little out of tune
posted by Theiform at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Jones: "I have a challenge to my future colleagues in Washington: take this election from the great state of Alabama and get something done! Fund CHIP before I get up there!"
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [102 favorites]


"Go ahead and fund that CHIP program before I get up there”
posted by zachlipton at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


I was gonna say earlier that Jones losing would have cut me deep and hit me hard, that yeah temper expectations but shit I can’t lie to myself or anyone else, I simply can’t bear it when a good democrat loses to patently garbage opponent.

Thankfully tonight I didn’t have to feel that way.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


make it Gillibrand/Jones and we could get a hell of a ticket out of one day's worth of news
posted by Countess Elena at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Oh my god this is pathetic/awesome

[the moore results "party"]
posted by stinkfoot at 8:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Holy shit, I was anticipating a repeat of 2016's nail biting tension and eventual sorrow. Thank you, Alabamians, for saying there is in fact a floor for the behavior of elected officials, and putting Moore under it. Go Doug Jones!
posted by tautological at 8:08 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


Doug Jones is the Scott Brown of 2017.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Please, please let the racial breakdown of this vote mean that we get drastically fewer thinkpieces about how we need to coddle racist white people over the next few months.

Those are not think pieces, but sophistry pieces, and I am sick and tired of that kind of trash.

Anyway, sorry it was that close of a vote. Thrilled another arrogant predator got kicked to the curb. Thankful that there are people out there who have morals and flex those muscles where it counts.
posted by Alexandra Kitty at 8:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


> Doug Jones is the Scott Brown of 2017.

YOU TAKE THAT BA... oh, wait, I see what you mean.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:10 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


The Moore live party is literally them singing hymns. Am I being trolled?
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:10 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Look at all those old people. The fact that the Birdie Dance is not being played right now is criminal.
posted by Talez at 8:11 PM on December 12, 2017


Trump just tweeted such a vapid reply to all this it’s almost not worth quoting. Which means he probably didn’t write it which means he’s probably apoplectic.
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
posted by Brainy at 8:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


I had a good feeling about this election. So I made cake. Because in case women and people of color saved us, then there is celebration cake. And if ratfuckery and intolerance won, then I could drown myself in ganache. Yay for celebration cake. Yay for Doug Jones. Yeah for the voters who got out there and voted, and the workers who got out there and helped people vote. Yay team!

And from this day forward, my experimental dulce de leche sacher torte with espresso ganache shall be known as "Jones Torte".
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [81 favorites]


Moore HQ is holding a funeral lmao
posted by theodolite at 8:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


I hope there are a bunch of write in votes for "the pedophile" and Roy Moore has to argue they're for him.
posted by The Hamms Bear at 8:11 PM on December 12, 2017 [82 favorites]


Am I being trolled?

You're being blessed.
posted by stinkfoot at 8:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Oh man it timed out so that my rewatch of Parks and Rec ended with watching the finale right after the race was called so I've just been basking in unashamed expressions of relentless optimistic joy in good government for an hour. Also, whiskey. Highly recommend.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


Brittany Packnett‏ @MsPackyetti:
"Can you imagine what would be possible if the DNC and political funders actually turned over resources and support to Black organizers, Black politicos, and Black woman leaders?

We can vote.

We can also lead, change, and transform nations.

Invest in black people"

Yeah.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [152 favorites]


Let me know when the Moore campaign starts singing "I Am Going To The Lordy" and "Nearer, My God, To Thee".
posted by dannyboybell at 8:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


They're currently singing the saddest, most dispirited version of "How Great Thou Art" I've ever heard at Moore's defeat party. The live chat window is scrolling so fast I can't even read it, and the comments are all pointing and laughing.
posted by orange swan at 8:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]




Charles Barkley breaking down the Jones win on CNN is must-see TV.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Looking forward to Sarah Huckabee Sanders congratulating Roy Moore tomorrow.

The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win.

He is such a piece of shit.

So uh...what do we get for the other seven days

Holy crap, day one is usually, like, socks. I don't think I can handle day two.

Roll Tide!

As the ex-GF of an obnoxious Auburn fan, Roll Tide!
posted by Room 641-A at 8:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Moore HQ guy looking up hymn lyrics on his phone in a dead silent hall
posted by theodolite at 8:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


And a thank you to the mods for letting the joy unbounded flow like tears of happiness. We needed this.
posted by vac2003 at 8:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [38 favorites]


There's a reason churches have hymnals... this is just pathetic and well worthy of derision.
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:16 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


The Moore live party is literally them singing hymns. Am I being trolled?

This is a sort of obscure joke (it’s a reference to a Jewish prayer sung near the end of certain services), but it’s gold:

@bencjacobs: If only they did Adon Olam it would mean that this was almost over
posted by zachlipton at 8:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [21 favorites]


Well I was out on a pseudo-date (long story) at a lovely turkish place where I was fed mezze and rakka, and totally forgot this was happening until I came home and saw the celebrations on Facebook and Twitter.

The only thing I could think to celebrate with was a half a block of cheddar in the fridge I had left over from a party so I am pulling a Liz Lemon and celebrating with Night Cheese.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


Only counties left with outstanding precincts are Jefferson with 25/172 outstanding and Mobile with 14/190 outstanding. Both are Jones counties.

The interesting thing to me is that I've been following the benchmarks chart that Harry Enten laid out before the polls closed. Moore did much better than Jones on hitting the benchmarks. That's all percentages, though, and not turnout. If Moore's voters did not turn out as expected, and Jones' voters turned out in larger numbers, that would explain it, I'm guessing. I'll be curious to hear 538's take on it. I presume there will be an emergency podcast...
posted by booksherpa at 8:17 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I heartily encourage Donald Trump to endorse whichever Republicans may be up for reelection next year.
posted by vverse23 at 8:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Also, 45 just tweeted, in part: "The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win."

Yeah, buddy, those are also known as "votes." If the candidate you and your party supported had any appeal outside of the dead-ender GOP base demographic, he wouldn't have lost votes to a fucking write-in.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


This is such a wonderful day! Woohoo! A man who defended little girls is now in the Senate, and not one who abused them!

I encourage anyone unfamiliar with the 16th St Baptist Church Bombing to read up on it.

Doug Jones didn't just defend little girls, he got convictions against KKK terrorists who bombed a black church, murdering 4 black children, in a case that went unprosecuted for nearly 38 years, and which many agree was a turning point for the Civil Rights Movement.

Not to make Jones out to be some kind of white savior -- he was just effective in doing the baseline morally correct thing .

But particularly running against a candidate who wanted to repeal every amendment after the 10th, and who thinks things were better when we had slavery, there's really satisfying poetic justice there.

And you know, hopefully someday power will be less concentrated in the hands of white men, and we won't all have to rely on the good ones to fight for the rest of us.
posted by mrmurbles at 8:18 PM on December 12, 2017 [104 favorites]




Holy shit! I just finished watching a movie my wife and I hunkered down with in part to avoid the news, and this comes as a very pleasant surprise. Congratulations, Doug Jones, congratulations Alabama, congratulations Americans and congratulations Metafilter!
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:19 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


If Moore's voters did not turn out as expected, and Jones' voters turned out in larger numbers, that would explain it, I'm guessing. I'll be curious to hear 538's take on it.

Yes, a lot of GOP voters stayed home.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:19 PM on December 12, 2017


Fave comment from reddit so far: This is almost like congratulating someone for not shitting themselves.
posted by Sublimity at 8:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [37 favorites]


In the next tweet after the one leotrotsky quoted, Brittney suggests donating to these two orgs:

https://twitter.com/CollectivePac
https://twitter.com/HigherHeights
posted by Emmy Rae at 8:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Took a peek at the /r/conservative subreddit and it's pretty amazing how much of a consensus has suddenly materialized that of course Roy Moore is a child molester, was a terrible primary and general candidate, and should have been ejected from the campaign at any number of points. Impressive that they've been sitting on those opinions all along, even a few days ago when it was generally agreed that in the 70s it was normal for a smallholder to court a maiden as soon as she'd had her moonsblood.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:21 PM on December 12, 2017 [99 favorites]


roll tide, motherfuckers.
posted by dogheart at 8:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


“The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time.”

The president doesn’t know that a senate term is six years?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Josh Jordan‏ @NumbersMuncher:
The best part about this tweet is that it is gracious enough that literally no one believe Trump actually wrote it.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [87 favorites]


The president doesn’t know that a senate term is six years.

The special election only fills the remainder of the term (2020) so it's only two.
posted by Talez at 8:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


Have just added cupcakes to the shopping list for my husband who is going to the store after he gets off the night shift. Fingers crossed I get actual cake so I can celebrate in accepted Mefi style.
posted by threeturtles at 8:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


The president doesn’t know that a senate term is six years.

Jones will serve the rest of Sessions' term in progress, he'll be on the ballot again in 2020.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Why a Pakistani living in Malaysia gets an Alabama election result as a birthday present is unknown, but I ain't saying no.
posted by tavegyl at 8:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [118 favorites]


via Drudge Ex-McConnell aide thanks Bannon 'for showing us how to lose the reddest state in the Union'

Ooo, I like the part when the knives come out. Does that make me a bad person?

And oh dear Jesus yes, I never want to hear one more goddamn syllable out of the Democratic Party about how they need to help the poor suffering economically anxious white racists or how they just don't have time for social justice right now. If Virginia and Alabama did not take the DNC et al. to school, they're beyond learning.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [56 favorites]


And for the record, it's no longer a Crimson Tide, it's an Azure Tide.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Jones will serve the rest of Sessions' term in progress, he'll be on the ballot again in 2020.

True, but I still bet Trump doesn't know the length of a Senate (or House) term.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:25 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


(In tonight's other election, the Dem lost in Iowa Senate 3, with 45% of the vote. Still that's 45 more percentage points than the D got in either of the last two elections, when the R ran unopposed.

Now back to your Alabama victory party.)
posted by Tsuga at 8:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Thanks for the correction! So Trump is definitely not the source of that tweet, then. Too conciliatory and conversant in Senate protocol.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Fave tweet of the night - "Aaaaand the horse you rode in on."

Boy, did i need this. Well done, Alabama - and trebly so all those who got up and did it when all the suppression and hatred were against them.

As it says in Moore's favourite book: Go, and do thou likewise.
posted by Devonian at 8:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


“The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time.”

The president doesn’t know that a senate term is six years.


I am sure you're right that he doesn't know what a senator's term is, but the staffer who wrote this tweet knows that this was a special election for the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions and that it will be up for a vote again in 2020.
posted by AwkwardPause at 8:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Democratic Party? It's the fucking opinion columnists and pundits who keep saying that shit.

But, fortunately, two anecdotes make a trend for them, so the new think pieces will be about the Doom of the GOP due to Trumpism, so small "yay."
posted by leotrotsky at 8:26 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]




It’s calvados in my glass tonight for the good people of Alabama. And I’m glad for all of the happiness and good humor here. Thanks for being here, MetaFilter.
posted by Songdog at 8:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I mean, just imagine how big Jones's margin of victory would have been without all the voter suppression.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [29 favorites]


So Jones will be up for reelection the same time as Trump? (If he survives that long, politically or physically) Gonna be interesting...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:29 PM on December 12, 2017


T.D. Strange: "Ok now let's do Ted Cruz. Texas, you're on the clock."

We note that Cruz's favorables are underwater at 38/45. That's not good.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [20 favorites]


Perry Bacon Jr., FiveThirtyEight:
The Alabama Secretary of State’s office has said that the certification process of the electoral results likely will not be completed until at least Dec. 26, meaning that Jones would not be seated as a senator until that date or later, depending on when the Senate is in session. So for the upcoming government funding bill (current funding expires on Dec. 22), incumbent Republican Sen. Luther Strange is likely to be voting. Similarly, Republicans were already planning to try to push their tax bill through before Christmas. (Different versions passed in the House and Senate and those must be reconciled.) So congressional Republicans will be even more determined to finish the tax legislation quickly, before Jones comes to Capitol Hill.

That said, let’s say Republicans can’t move that quickly. Jones still can’t kill the bill himself. The senator-elect has suggested he would join the 48 Democrats and Tennessee Republican Bob Corker in opposing the legislation. But Republicans would still have 50 members who back it, with Vice President Mike Pence to break the tie.

Here’s the problem for Republicans. Once Jones arrives in the Senate, they have no margin for error. Any single Republican senator can tank the bill. So that gives members leverage. In particular, watch for Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who wants two pieces of legislation to help improve Obamacare to be adopted in exchange for her tax reform vote, since the tax provision includes a repeal of the individual mandate in Obamacare. If Republicans must have Collins’ vote to pass tax reform, she could have huge sway in moving the bill to her preferences.
Link (may not be a permalink, don't know if will works once the liveblog wraps over).
posted by runcifex at 8:29 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


In tonight's other election, the Dem lost in Iowa Senate 3, with 45% of the vote. Still that's 45 more percentage points than the D got in either of the last two elections, when the R ran unopposed.
I’m sad about this, but 45% is a strong showing in a heavily Republican district where Trump won nearly 70% of the vote.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


"Judge Roy Moore."

It would appear that people in Alabama have done just that.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [56 favorites]


This is a bit of an aside, but I just noticed that the Great Seal of Alabama looks a bit like a zoomed in map of Oz, with Mississippi being Munchkin Country.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Apparently the Moore live stream still has hope. And they're already talking recount. So, yea. that.
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:32 PM on December 12, 2017


Some crazy lady is walking through the Moore party with a great big framed image of the 10 Commandments.
posted by scalefree at 8:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Ok, I've been suuuuper sick this week, so I have no cake. But I just ordered some celebratory Indian food and I hope the mefi Gods will allow this. I promise to eat an obscene amount of cake in the coming weeks to make up for this.
posted by greermahoney at 8:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Sooooo, is Moore NOT going to concede??? It doesn't sound like it.
posted by hollygoheavy at 8:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


But Republicans would still have 50 members who back it, with Vice President Mike Pence to break the tie.

They may want to check back with Collins on that.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:32 PM on December 12, 2017


I have bourbon spice cake with a bourbon-brown sugar frosting, and ....is that hope? I'd almost forgotten what it felt like.
posted by PearlRose at 8:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


I know, that Great Seal has been bugging me for days - it's awful!
posted by Chrysostom at 8:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Hilarious to have Teump already giving up on Moore as they’re digging in for the long fight.
posted by zachlipton at 8:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


And Moore is refusing to concede. Says it's in God's hands. Literally waiting for a miracle.
posted by chris24 at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Moore is not conceding. He can't even lose with dignity.
posted by Justinian at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


"We still have to go by the rules." Moore, now, before talking about how God is in control. Thoughts and Prayers, for serious.
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


ArbitraryAndCapricious: "I’m sad about this, but 45% is a strong showing in a heavily Republican district where Trump won nearly 70% of the vote."

The Dem actually won one of the two counties that are in the district.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


As a native Alabamian (albeit one who has lived in New York for a decade), and also a woman who was raped two days before the Weinstein accusers hit the news, I am crying tears of joy tonight.

The past few months have been torture. It’s good for society that all of these rapists are getting called out, but for me it has been unbearable having this be the major topic of water cooler conversation nearly every single day for the past many weeks. And of course everyone wants to talk to me about Roy Moore because they know I’m from Alabama. I’m a medical student, and after taking six weeks of leave after I was assaulted, I returned to my general surgery rotation. In the OR, when I’m scrubbed in on a case, I can’t leave when someone starts up a conversation about the latest accusations. For a month and a half I’ve had to endure almost daily conversations about rapists not my own. (There have literally only been four days in the past six weeks when this hasn’t happened.)

I only checked the news tonight to confirm that I’d need to take tomorrow morning off because of course Moore was going to win, and then I saw the unbelievable.

Thanks to all of y’all who helped make this possible. You have given me a wonderful gift at a time when I badly needed it.
posted by ocherdraco at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [360 favorites]


"God is always in control."

Ok, well, you lost so...
posted by The Hamms Bear at 8:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [26 favorites]


watch for Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who wants two pieces of legislation to help improve Obamacare to be adopted in exchange for her tax reform vote, since the tax provision includes a repeal of the individual mandate in Obamacare.

...and who Mitch McConnell lied through his teeth to and then screwed last time to get her vote.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Yes, let's please do Cruz. And Brent Beal is running against Gohmert. I want to make that happen.
posted by mcdoublewide at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Moore party talking about military ballots and auto recount for results of less than 0.5%. Moore refusing to concede. "God is always in control." Quoting the bible. Christ, what an asshole.
posted by Theiform at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Fucker. Roy Moore said that the count is not over and will have to be certified later this month. He's hoping for a recount.
posted by zarq at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017


Moore didn't concede, did he?
posted by Room 641-A at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017


It wouldn't be 2017 if the guy with a history of abusing women bowed out gracefully.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:35 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


@ocherdraco: Jedi hugs and/or whiskey as needed, dang.
posted by XtinaS at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Loony Leftist Report: This does not change the chessboard for the Socialist Utopia Endgame but it does make the chessboard More Real and is not a Bad Thing Thank God.

To my fellows on the Social Democratic/Progressive end, now is the time to act as if the wind is at your back. Now is the time to be bold and demand the impossible. Now is the time to be for something not just against something.

Democracy is coming.
posted by The Whelk at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [50 favorites]


Moore's team just explained that there's an automatic recount for a margin under 0.5%. That's what they're going with. The margin is 1.1%.
posted by pjenks at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Sooooo, is Moore NOT going to concede??? It doesn't sound like it.

Yeah, his campaign is talking about demanding a recount based on the narrowness of the victory margin. Moore just said "we gotta wait on God... It's not over and it's gonna take some time."
posted by mrmurbles at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


A few stray thoughts that may or may not surprise you from an Alabamian (and a Christian to boot)...

my mostly-white, extremely conservative congregation seemed to be somewhat split; no idea what the majority was, but if anything I think the Doug Jones (or at least, anti-Moore) crowd was more vocal. As far as I know, everyone in my family, including me, voted for Jones. My son did some campaign work for Jones.

I would agree that PoC deserve the credit for swinging this. But I really hate the narrative that all the white people, and most of the Christians, in Alabama were solidly for Moore. I think among those who take the claims of Christianity seriously, and not as an extension of some perceived upper social class and/or political stance, both Trump and Moore have been seen as extremely problematic "representatives" of whatever it is they're selling, and therefore rejected.

Moore has made me see red (no pun intended) since long before his accusers came forward; his stance on the Ten Commandments hanging in the courtroom was grossly flawed, and is/was a slap in the face to anyone who has ever had to face a dilemma over civil disobedience in a *true* matter of conscience.

I expect some continued criticism of Alabama for even letting it be close when one of the choices is a man who makes unwanted advances on women (underage in Moore's case), but without excusing my state, I think my whole country has a problem in this arena, given who we elected President (and given the excuses that were being made for Moore by national Republican figures - and no, people didn't think 30 year olds hitting on 15 year olds was okay in Alabama in the '70s and '80s)

If anything good can come out of these bitter and divisive elections, I hope that perhaps those on the more conservative and moderate ends of the spectrum (and maybe even ALL ends of the spectrum) will say enough already with the "we've got to support our party/our side right or wrong" mentality. If we don't start electing people with some character and ability to work together, we're doomed.

Lastly, given the razor thin margin, I'll feel a lot better when the thing is sealed and Jones is sworn in.
posted by randomkeystrike at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [61 favorites]


And Moore is refusing to concede. Says it's in God's hands. Literally waiting for a miracle.

God, this would be a good time to make with the lightning
posted by leotrotsky at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [55 favorites]


Who were those two fashy-looking goons in coats behind Moore on the stage? Anyone know?
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


oops, now it's 1.5%.
posted by pjenks at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Goddamnit. Of course this asshole wasn't going to concede. Of course he would keep us up at night worrying how the AL GOP will somehow rob this victory.

I don't know if I'll be able to relax until Doug Jones is safely sworn in office. Fuck this asshole.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:36 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


1.5% now, with all votes in. It's in the bag. God is in control, I guess.
posted by Theiform at 8:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


2017 scoreboard:

—Dems gain 1 U.S. Senate seat (AL)
—Dems gain 1 governorship (NJ)
—Dems gain 1 chamber (WA Senate)
—Dems gain full control in 2 states (NJ, WA)
—Dems sweep VA statewide
—no change in U.S. House
—Dems pick up 32 leg seats, GOP pick up 4
—Maine expands Medicaid
-- Krasner wins Philly DA
-- Dems take Westchester County
-- Dem wins in competitive mayoral races (Atlanta, Charlotte, Manchester...)

GOP officeholders, be smart and retire now. 'Cause we're coming for you fuckers in 2018.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [123 favorites]


Called it..
posted by johnpowell at 8:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


After 0.5% the campaign has to front security deposits for the recount. Let's see if any of them are dumb enough to bankroll it.
posted by Talez at 8:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Right now would be a great time to call your members of congress and leave a message telling them exactly what you think (pick a topic! there are so many). Let them start their day tomorrow with this election and your words ringing in their ears.
posted by mcduff at 8:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Scariest shit all thread right there. Thanks Chrysotom.
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [3 favorites]


Just stickin my head in here to say that I am ONE HAPPY GOOBER!
posted by TwoToneRow at 8:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Bret Baier, Fox News, on Moore's bible quotes about how it's not over: "there are other bible verses that say it's over."
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [41 favorites]


Thank you MetaFilter, for making so many of us get off our asses and write postcards, send texts, and knock on doors! Let us now keep the pressure on. Look out, trumpy motherfuckers, we're coming for you.
posted by phliar at 8:39 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Cory Gardner's tears are delicious - .@NRSC Chairman @SenCoryGardner: “Tonight’s results are clear – the people of AL deemed Roy Moore unfit to serve in the U.S. Senate..I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent AL by choosing to vote with the Senate Repub Majority.”

These people are insufferable. The vote was very close to 50/50, but somehow the Democratic voters are not part of "true" Alabama.
posted by jcreigh at 8:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


Oh, another plus. This loss means that Roy Moore's public life is almost certainly over. When you lose a Senate seat in Alabama as a Republican, you are severely damaged goods.

...and the horse you rode in on, indeed.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:40 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


Horse... hmm... I keep thinking of Baalam's Ass.
posted by clawsoon at 8:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


What are the chances of Shelby flipping back to (D)?
posted by rhizome at 8:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


Holy Shit. Graphic on Fox News just now

LOSERS
- Bannon
- Babies, etc etc

I just can't. I'll watch the Hannity videos tomorrow. I can't wait for the gifs.
posted by Room 641-A at 8:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


THIS IS IMPORTANT: everyone who was forced to use a provisional ballot MUST go and have them validated.

I am terrified that military votes will come in for Moore, and provisional voters will bot go through the process , because Jones “already won”

Tell everyone that got one that they MUST go verify their vote!!
posted by das_2099 at 8:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [93 favorites]


ocherdraco, I'm so sorry. Sounds like you've been going through hell. Sending love and thoughts.

I hope the GOTV team in Alabama now switch their focus to getting EVERY "inactive" voter's registration corrected in time for 2018, because the Republicans are inevitably going to double down on their shit.
posted by Pallas Athena at 8:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [16 favorites]


I had not made any predictions about this election, but in the true spirit of Metafilter I just stuffed my face with cake and it was delicious.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:44 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


I don't think it's over for Moore's career. You seriously underestimate the consistent criminal effort of the hard right. SCOTUS Associate Justice Moore would be extremely scary. It's not likely, but the GOP still has a chance before the midterm to confirm him, should one of the liberal justices retire and Trump nominates Moore.
posted by runcifex at 8:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


The Politico analysis shows that every single county in AL shifted more Dem than in the 2016 presidential election from between 8.5 and 41 (!) percentage points...
posted by Theiform at 8:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


> Who were those two fashy-looking goons in coats behind Moore on the stage? Anyone know?

Two of the horsemen of the apocalypse. Two are on horse twitter and noped out, while the other two showed up but thought it was less embarrassing to arrive on foot.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:45 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


I don't know which moderator drew the short straw, but thanks for bearing with us tonight. You have to admit, this is kind of epic.
posted by uosuaq at 8:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


"God is always in control."

If there were a God in control, Moore would've been struck by lightning back when he was cruising for teenagers...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:46 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Alabama Sec of State threw Moore under the bus. Hard. Then backed over twice, and invited Moore to keep pressing his luck.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 8:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


das_2099: "THIS IS IMPORTANT: everyone who was forced to use a provisional ballot MUST go and have them validated.

I am terrified that military votes will come in for Moore, and provisional voters will bot go through the process , because Jones “already won”

Tell everyone that got one that they MUST go verify their vote!!
"

First off - yes, people should absolutely do this, and make their voice heard.

However, the Jones margin is about 21,000 votes. That's not going to be overcome by any late military votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


I really hate the narrative that all the white people, and most of the Christians, in Alabama were solidly for Moore

Exit poll checks: 72% of white men. 63% of white women. Not all; just almost 3/4 of the men and almost 2/3 of the women. White born-again evangelicals: 80% for Moore.

I know there are good people, compassionate and thinking people, who are white, evangelical Christians... but they're very much a minority, little more than the tail trying to wag the dog. The category as a whole is by far more interested in their collection of buzzwords than leadership with integrity.

When one faction outnumbers another four to one, I, as an outsider, have to think that the larger group is the real Christians; the ones I can respect are the heretics.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [87 favorites]


And Moore is refusing to concede.

You can't really expect a child molester to take no for an answer.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 8:49 PM on December 12, 2017 [85 favorites]


All caught up and so happy for Doug Jones and Alabama and everyone.

Cory Gardner's tears are delicious - .@NRSC Chairman @SenCoryGardner: “Tonight’s results are clear – the people of AL deemed Roy Moore unfit to serve in the U.S. Senate..I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent AL by choosing to vote with the Senate Repub Majority.”

I think I'll mosey over to my Senator's office tomorrow and inquire of his staff what sort of ridiculous this is (like was he contractually obligated to say this, or is he really that dumb, or what?) and if perhaps the Senator would like to go first and truly represent the people of Colorado by voting with the Senate Dems.
posted by danielleh at 8:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [34 favorites]


Wait this is only for two fucking years? Ugh. I had thought it was for six but of course it couldn't be since it's not an election year. Oh that's so disappointing. I'm still gonna finish this drink though.
posted by great_radio at 8:52 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


@chrysostom

I think you are right!
I’m just terrified:)
posted by das_2099 at 8:53 PM on December 12, 2017


I hope the GOTV team in Alabama now switch their focus to getting EVERY "inactive" voter's registration corrected in time for 2018, because the Republicans are inevitably going to double down on their shit.

Not just AL- all the states. The message is loud and clear. When we curtail voter suppression, maximize registration, and GOTV, justice stands a chance. It's all about getting everyone ready to vote and to the polls and stopping efforts to make it harder for them. And, of course, working around those efforts once they're in place.

It's all about GOTV, and if we do it successfully - well, we've got 2018. This is where to focus.
posted by Miko at 8:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [51 favorites]


Well, three years really - all of 2018, 2019, 2020, and at least a smidge of 2021.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:53 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


You hear that, Kayla Moore? Doug Jones has multiple Jewish friends.

This reminded me of how vile Kayla Moore is and a new wave of ecstasy washed over me.
posted by lalex at 8:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [27 favorites]


Now that this thing in the bag, the timing of how quickly the GOP establishment caved when it wasn't official and most networks hadn't called it is striking. Besides the risk that somehow Moore could come back, this is going to really pit the Trump base against them. Moore (and likely Trump at some point) can cry "look at how quickly they abandoned us! the race wasn't over!" and it's pretty damn true. There was still a chance, and McConnel et al RUSHED to get their statements out across the airways of how this was Bannon's fault and Moore never should have been there.

Cynically, I think they finally accepting the changing tide and realized that any face-saving value in 2018 must come from the immediate rejection of this guy. So the minute the safe $ was on Jones, they made it damn clear to everyone that Moore was a mistake etc. And as much as I hate the repubs for everything they've put us through and never want to forgive them, if we're going to survive this whole mess we need them. While lacking decency in so many ways, at least they have a baseline moral standard they can pay lip service to if nothing else.

With trump/moore/bannon/alt-right, there is no bottom. There is no point they won't stoop to if they feel threatened or need to rally the most vile citizens of their base. And that is fucking terrifying.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:55 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Since the Moore camp is singing hymns,

Then to side with truth is noble,
When we share her wretched crust,
Ere her cause bring fame and profit,
And 'tis prosperous to be just;
Then it is the brave man chooses
While the coward stands aside.
Till the multitude make virtue
Of the faith they had denied.

posted by ocschwar at 8:57 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


So... once you hit your favorites limit, it resets at midnight Eastern, right?

Asking for a friend.

Me. I’m the friend. Myself.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:58 PM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


"I’m sad about this, but 45% is a strong showing in a heavily Republican district where Trump won nearly 70% of the vote."

The Dem actually won one of the two counties that are in the district.


The parts of the district in Woodbury County actually circle around most of the biggest city, Sioux City. It's a very rural district. Rural western Iowa is deep Steve King territory, and Carlin, despite being a lump that can only spout ALEC talking points, is a local attorney with a lot of name recognition. 45% here gives me life.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:59 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


i thought i had a stroke tonight but it turns out that i'm just? feeling hope? for the first time in 10,000 years
posted by poffin boffin at 9:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [60 favorites]


I sure hope Bannon keeps putting forward candidates in safe Republican seats.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [37 favorites]


Good analysis from Ron Brownstein:
[AL results] same model as VA: strong AA turnout, huge margin among young, solid shift to D's among college + & suburban whites overcomes preponderant GOP #s among blue collar, evangelical & rural whites.

This is the trade-off Trump is accelerating for GOP (& Bannon wants 2 push even further)
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 PM on December 12, 2017 [39 favorites]


Great thread about how the Mobile, Ala NAACP did GOTV. Resources, commitment, no stone unturned...
posted by Devonian at 9:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [46 favorites]


I’m so sorry, ocherdraco.
posted by Songdog at 9:02 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


I'm so disappointed at the lack of video that isn't geo locked (Washington Post).
posted by Yowser at 9:04 PM on December 12, 2017


Thank you, black women of Alabama who got out and voted today.

Thank you, black men of Alabama who got out and voted today.

Thank you, roughly one-third of white women of Alabama who got out and voted today.

Thank you, roughly one quarter of white men of Alabama who got out and voted today.

But seriously, two thirds of white women and three quarters of white men of Alabama - what the hell?
posted by Navelgazer at 9:04 PM on December 12, 2017 [117 favorites]


❤❤❤ love you ocherdraco ❤❤❤
posted by lalex at 9:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [29 favorites]


This hope feeling is outside of my comfort zone, but I can work with it.
posted by monopas at 9:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [6 favorites]


So... once you hit your favorites limit, it resets at midnight Eastern, right?

NARRATOR: No, it doesn’t.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Fox News current spin: Roy Moore sucked THE WHOLE TIME and this isn't REALLY a referendum on Trump!

More seriously, it will be an interesting question how 538, Upshot, etc, update their predictive models for 2018 based on this election. How much of what we saw was due to Moore, how much to Trump, how much to generic midterm wave effects -- all are open questions and hard to distinguish in this election. Figuring how much of this extends beyond Moore (much of it, though probably not all) is going to be very tricky. A nice problem to have, though.
posted by chortly at 9:10 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


good lord, I'm such a mess I posted this in the other thread but:

I'm crying. [ed note: still!]

Thank you, Alabamian MeFites who knocked on doors, phone banked, posted information on social media, talked to friends and family about the race, and went to the polls to vote today. Thank you.
posted by lalex at 9:10 PM on December 12, 2017 [24 favorites]


Roy Less
posted by Going To Maine at 9:13 PM on December 12, 2017 [31 favorites]


Oh god hugs for ocherdraco!
posted by Navelgazer at 9:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


First, woooo! Thanks to everyone who helped.

Second, buried in CNN's exit polls is Trump's underwater approval rating in Alabama, 47 – 48. And only 32% of voters strongly approve of Trump, while 41% strongly disapprove.

This is not a good sign for Republicans (even though Trump's approval rating is probably lowered in the exit polls, due to Republicans who stayed home rather than vote for the pedophile).
posted by Banknote of the year at 9:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


Rhizome: What are the chances of Shelby flipping back to (D)?

With Doug Jones’ victory, Senate is 51 Republican 49 Democrat. That means any Republican senator could caucus with Democrats and take control of the Senate, including committees, hearings and investigations (including supboena power).
posted by msalt at 9:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


> 51 Republican 49 Democrat. That means any Republican senator could caucus with Democrats and take control of the Senate

That's not true - you forgot Mike Pence. To be fair, he is very forgettable. But in a 50-50 tie, he'd vote to keep McConnell the Majority leader.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


Tweets by Roy Moore's Horse
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


Max_Fisher: Sort of surprised how many of the Dem victory tweets are citing every possible factor except the handful of women who risked harassment and worse to bring Moore’s record to light

Victory has a hundred fathers (in this case, mothers is more appropriate) and all, but the group of women who stood up and told their stories deserve a great deal of credit for their courage and strength.
posted by zachlipton at 9:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [139 favorites]


Omg, Ocherdraco. That is horrific. I'm sure you have this info, but please call a rape crisis hotline or text 741-741 if you want to talk about your *own* situation, instead of having to endure all this talk about others. There is no good time for this, but certainly the last few months have to have been the worst on record for this to have happened. My heart goes out to you. You are so strong. Thank you for continuing to help others, even while in the worst situation.
posted by greermahoney at 9:24 PM on December 12, 2017 [43 favorites]


@DavidAFrench: (National Review)
Some perspective on the magnitude of Steve Bannon’s accomplishment. Two decades of AL GOP senate races:

1998 GOP + 27
2002 GOP +19
2004 GOP +35
2008 GOP +26
2010 GOP +31
2014 GOP +95 (yep!)

2017 . . . A little closer
posted by chris24 at 9:28 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


No cake here, but tomorrow Pappy Biscuit and I undertake the annual baking of the Christmas cookies for the whole of Clan Biscuit, a tradition lost in the mists of time. A couple hundred dozens of oatmeal chocolate chip cookies coming out of my kitchen tomorrow, which will increase the net joy in the world a little bit more on this day of jubilee.

And while I am rarely organized enough to do the the mefi cookie swap, if ocherdraco would like a tin, all I need is a mailing address. Hugs from here.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:31 PM on December 12, 2017 [9 favorites]


Fark headline: Roy Moore banned from National Mall
posted by dirigibleman at 9:32 PM on December 12, 2017 [55 favorites]


Saw the NYT's numbers start to flip around 10:10 PM or so, saw them call it a little later, and then for a few minutes basked in cable news - but the whole time I was looking forward to coming back to this thread.

(logs in) "727 comments (392 new)"

And I read every last one, because as thrilled as I am over this news, I know so many people here are so much more stressed, sad, frustrated, scared, or angry than I am. Seeing your happiness in here gives me even more joy than the election results.
posted by martin q blank at 9:33 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


The 'conventional wisdom' was that Batshit Bannon was going to promote alt-right candidates to primary the 'reasonable' Republicans and push the party even further toward awfulness. Well, after tonight's result, I'd tell him to Go For It! Toss Br'er Rabbit into the briar patch and let's see what happens. Yeah, he'll probably destroy the GOP, but it's gonna be great for Breitbart Radio's ratings!
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


Oh ho, it looks like Moore may not even be able to initiate a recount (unless it's within 0.5%, when it is automatic).
posted by Chrysostom at 9:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


Wow. Ana Navarro is not here for this guy's crap [Video]
posted by zachlipton at 9:38 PM on December 12, 2017 [34 favorites]


goddamnit, i just started on new antidepressants, how can i tell if they're working now
posted by murphy slaw at 9:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [81 favorites]


Oh America. You're finally doing good. I'm so happy for the people who worked for Jones' election, and for the many women for whom this must be something of a vindication. Please keep the momentum!
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


> Democracy is coming.

Five years after Sandy Hook, U.S. gun-control advocates switch strategy - "Instead of pressuring lawmakers to push new gun-control measures through the U.S. Congress, volunteers from groups including Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America are now running for office themselves."
Nine of 13 volunteers trained by the group ran for office this year and won seats, ranging from New Hampshire state representative to city council member in West University Place, Texas. Fourteen more have already declared their intentions to run for office in 2018, seeking seats in Congress, state legislatures and local government, all running as Democrats.
posted by kliuless at 9:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [153 favorites]


Against my own advice I spent tonight following the 538 liveblog and one of my favorite moments was their quote of Senator Maggie Hassan's reaction tweet:

@SenatorHassan:
Hot DAMN

(tweetfest ensues)
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 9:47 PM on December 12, 2017 [10 favorites]


Phillip Henry @MajorPhilebrity: Here’s the thing: Black people aren’t a RESOURCE that democrats can only tap into during elections while ignoring their existence in all other ways.

What we see is that black people, especially in the south, dying whether it’s an election year or not from policies that suppress their voting and general daily life.

However, when a large election like this comes up and garners national attention and the attention of national democratic organizations, it becomes the job of BLACK PEOPLE to tip the scales.

Where were these people advocating for their lives every other damn day other than the past two months of their lives? Black people are just a switch to turn off and on for elections.

It’s interesting to notice, because it advantages dems to keep black lives desperate under GOP representation in red states as it compels them to vote democrat.

Voter suppression in these states are a big deal, but why are black southern dems only worth the attention of national democratic organizations when they need them for a major vote tally?

The idea that the only benefit of being a democrat is that if you can win a statewide election where you live, what does that do for voter enthusiasm?

For ppl in these states what is the point of turning out knowing what it costs them? Not just in suppression tactics, but taking time off work, getting a ride etc. Dems just play up the urgency/desperation of their lives to make the incurred cost of going to vote blue worth it.

And that is undeniably tied to their interest of not improving that situation. Because liberating black people in the south means that dems will have to start putting their money where their mouth is!

We shouldn’t be waiting for national dems to be implementing this kind of statewide reform, POC have won many local elections in red states. Give black communities the keys/tools of democratic infrastructure so that we can dictate the terms of mobilization.

Giving black communities in the south the right to dictate their own mobilization allows them to extract concessions from a cynical, inured political apparatus that doesn’t even want to humanize them.

If you’re going to say that the black vote can determine the outcome of a national election, then they should entitled to something worth of that influence!

This victory reinforces this. The DCC should be pouring money in southern communities to elect POC and women into statewide office. Give back the communities that delivered this historic win to you on a silver platter without expecting anything in return!
posted by joedan at 9:48 PM on December 12, 2017 [182 favorites]


Celebrated with a tall glass of freshly squeezed red grapefruit juice, soda water and a twist of Hawaiian salt...the refreshing drink shall henceforth be known as ‘Republican Tears’. Cheers, Alabama!
posted by The Toad at 9:51 PM on December 12, 2017 [30 favorites]


Politico: DNC waged stealth organizing campaign for Jones

As in VA, the DNC's efforts were about organizing and turnout, and not ads.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [33 favorites]


>>>>"Where were these people advocating for their lives every other damn day other than the past two months of their lives? Black people are just a switch to turn off and on for elections."


You can't pick up people and use them like tools in a shed, at your leisure.
posted by kiwi-epitome at 10:00 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


T.D. Strange: "Ok now let's do Ted Cruz. Texas, you're on the clock."

Chrysostom We note that Cruz's favorables are underwater at 38/45. That's not good.


I just went to re-up my donation to Battleground TX. This election shows that GOTV is where it is at.

From their site: "Texas Democrats are contesting all 36 U.S. House seats in 2018, 133 out of 150 state House seats, and 14 out of 15 state Senate seats." Let's get some of those seats away from the GOP. No state has to be red if we can turn out enough votes.
posted by Gotanda at 10:05 PM on December 12, 2017 [17 favorites]


Politico, Trump suffers 'big black eye' in Alabama
Jones' win, said one senior administration official, "is a big black eye for the president."
...
The president, for his part, tracked the race closely, asking to see poll numbers from his advisers. On Tuesday he followed news coverage that played on mute during his daily meetings. His former chief-strategist Steve Bannon, now the chairman of Breitbart News, was alone among the members of the Trump inner circle pushing him to back Moore. The two spoke Tuesday morning, and Bannon offered Trump assurances that Moore would prevail.
posted by zachlipton at 10:06 PM on December 12, 2017 [19 favorites]


T.D. Strange: "Ok now let's do Ted Cruz. Texas, you're on the clock."

Beto!
posted by scalefree at 10:09 PM on December 12, 2017 [8 favorites]


I don't have any cake on hand, so I ate a whole bag of Dove caramel chocolates. Am I doing this right?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:10 PM on December 12, 2017 [23 favorites]


My only disappointment for tonight is that there was not an ad-hoc effort form those projector guys who put the emoluments clause on Trump Tower, where Don Sr. gave a Hamlet-esque speech berating donny for his utter failure as a human. But I'm a generous person. I can forgive this small disappointment in favor of seeing the RNC mightily step on its own genitalia.
posted by codacorolla at 10:14 PM on December 12, 2017


I don't have any cake on hand, so I ate a whole bag of Dove caramel chocolates. Am I doing this right?

Honestly, if you didn't vote for Moore, you're doing fine, sweetie.
posted by greermahoney at 10:14 PM on December 12, 2017 [12 favorites]


Work in the lab ran late tonight, very late, which meant when the margin of error suddenly slammed closed I opened a beer from the cold room hidden stash and cranked up Spotify all the way so I could shout along to the lyrics: Now does your conscience bother you? TELL THE TRUTH!
posted by deludingmyself at 10:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [13 favorites]


Voter suppression in these states are a big deal, but why are black southern dems only worth the attention of national democratic organizations when they need them for a major vote tally?

I don't think this is a fair characterization of Democrats. Obama turned the DOJ into a tool for cracking down on abusive police departments and won consent orders against many of them, beefed up civil rights enforcement, pushed (and litigated) against voter suppression laws, etc. These are consensus Democratic positions. Plus more general economic equity measures (such as $15 an hour minimum wage, and tax fairness) that would help African Americans a lot.

The fact that Trump moved immediately to undo these changes just underscores how much Democrats do deliver.
posted by msalt at 10:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [67 favorites]


Rick Hasen is looking at Alabama law, and it doesn't look like Moore can request a recount if the margin is more than 0.5% even if he wants to pay for it. Senators and Representatives aren't included in Alabama's recount law.
posted by zachlipton at 10:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [25 favorites]


And that, I think, was the handle—that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn’t need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting—on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. . . .

So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.

----
Roll tide!

It's coming back, it seems like I have been waiting my whole adult life for the pendulum to start swinging but I really do think it is time for the forces of justice and equality to have a turn.

No complacency, we saw it in the 70s, nothing is inevitable. We need a woman, and please not a white one, to get behind for 2020. POC, women, LGBTQ, the disenfranchised people: we see it today that this is where the votes are for justice, we need them right up at the front leading us. White men to the back of the bus, we had our turn and we fucking suck...

YES YES YES.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:23 PM on December 12, 2017 [18 favorites]


according to this thread, I suppose I should be drinking a Yellow Hammer right now, but that just feels wrong. I guess I'm just hung up on the hillbilly moonshine stereotype. Does Alabama even have hills? It has one hell of a race track. Two of them actually. Anyway, one of my neighbours gave me a bottle of his moonshine last year. I've been wary of it, but tonight -- what the hell!
posted by philip-random at 10:27 PM on December 12, 2017


Don't believe this was posted before. Jones finishes at 93.5% of Hillary Clinton's raw vote total. Moore at 49.8% of Trump's. Looks like the whole molesting teenagers thing ended up mattering for an awful lot of Republicans when it came down to it.
posted by scalefree at 10:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [73 favorites]


Thank you Alabama, thank you postcarders, phone and text bankers!

I don't have a glass to raise, but I do have something resembling what might be considered an e-nail that I whipped up, and a candy-like blob something else the youngster down at ye ole recreational shoppe she callled shatter, and it's all so very scientific looking.

I'm still not sure what any of this has to do with that funny dance pose the youngsters were doing with tucking their face in their elbow and all that, but I suppose I am a bit more sensitive to light for some reason.
posted by loquacious at 10:37 PM on December 12, 2017 [7 favorites]


I believe a lot of the frustration around lack of Democratic focus on black voters is tied to the endless debate on how to court more white voters. When a party appears to focus all its attention on how to get more of a group that hasn't swung their way for half a century, while the votes of your group are taken as a given--well, I can see why you'd end up feeling used. Personally I think the takeaway from this election is that even putting up a child molester won't get white people to vote for the Democrat. They'll stay home or vote GOP anyway. Meanwhile, if you invest a lot into mobilizing POC (specifically black) voters then it will pay off dividends. The lesson where the Dems should be focusing their efforts is pretty obvious.
posted by schroedinger at 10:41 PM on December 12, 2017 [52 favorites]


In deference to our mods and the new way of dealing with long political threads, I have collected a list of some of my favorite tweets from my timeline tonight
William Saletan from Slate makes a startling, but obvious, observation

...Moore lost women without kids by 11 points. He lost mothers by 34. You know why.

Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institue of Inetrnational Studies with this sentiment we all agree with.

So glad the voters of Alabama banned Roy Moore from the National Mall, too.

Bess Kalb, a write for a late show, made me smile with this zinger.

Now that it's over let's be honest: The only Jew who's been in the Moore household is a velvet painting of Jesus.

I like Max Fisher a lot, a writer from the NY Times (sorry!) and even more after this tweet about the vital role the women who had the courage to bring Moore's record to light.

Sort of surprised how many of the Dem victory tweets are citing every possible factor except the handful of women who risked harassment and worse to bring Moore’s record to light

Maxine 'Reclaiming my time' Waters is lobbing grenades at Fox News

Fox News, why are you so damn quiet now? Knowing everything, lying on everybody, bullying everybody, claiming to be holy, righteous and loving America more than anybody else. Speak up now - admit you just got your butt kicked royally and MORE to come.

Sara Spector, a Texan Criminal Defense Attorney, has a witty and sharp mind.

One of our attorneys is a Jew. One of our servants is black. One of our yardmen is Latino. One of our maids is a woman. One of his girlfriends is a child! Go ahead elect him!

Don't much care for Meghan McCain but she doesn't care for Steve Bannon either.

Suck it, Bannon

Let's leave the last word, and rallying cry, to Hillary Clinton, shall we. On the money as always.

Tonight, Alabama voters elected a senator who'll make them proud.

And if Democrats can win in Alabama, we can -- and must -- compete everywhere.

Onward!

posted by vac2003 at 10:50 PM on December 12, 2017 [76 favorites]


The father who lost his lesbian daughter to suicide and was protesting Moore’s rally last night is proud of his state and his felllow Alabamians.

@VaughnHillyard:
Just talked with Nathan Mathis, the father in this video. He says tonight: “Hopefully people in politics will stop using gay folk to bash them. The voters need to make them stop...People in Alabama are good people--very good people."
posted by chris24 at 10:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [33 favorites]


r/the_donald's top post is as classy as ever.

Given that the party's pool of up and coming talent appears to be dwindling to white nationalists and the party itself was happy to get behind a sex criminal, I find this moderately plausible.
posted by Going To Maine at 11:05 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


I spent the night catching up on Hulu, thinking the news was going to be what I was expecting. Then I happened to check my emails after the latest episode finished, and couldn't believe the exciting news.

I just finished a piece of cake that's been sitting in my fridge for a while, in solidarity with y'all.

Wooo!
posted by numaner at 11:07 PM on December 12, 2017 [4 favorites]


No cake for me tonight, but approximately the same calorie profile in terms of red wine and gin (not mixed, mind you).
posted by codacorolla at 11:12 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Vodka, here. Ice cold.
posted by bz at 11:15 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


Unless enrolment is down at College Republican clubs, I wouldn't worry about the supply of white supremacists - it's whiter and more supremacist than ever.
posted by Yowser at 11:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


Not abusing edit window. "Ever" being my lifetime.
posted by Yowser at 11:20 PM on December 12, 2017 [1 favorite]


The president, for his part, tracked the race closely, asking to see poll numbers from his advisers. On Tuesday he followed news coverage that played on mute during his daily meetings.

So, just standard procedure then? I honestly find it hard to believe that he sits through any important meeting or briefing without getting distracted by Fox and Twitter on his phone.
posted by mannequito at 11:22 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


I can't wait for the inevitable Trump "he didn't pray hard enough" tweet: "Roy Moore lost because he didn't side with me completely sooner. Too weak on immigrant walls. Always knew he would lose, he begged me to save his failing campaign. Never did. Never did. Sad!" [fake]
posted by PontifexPrimus at 11:30 PM on December 12, 2017 [5 favorites]


a piece of cake that's been sitting in my fridge for a while

i don't understand these words
posted by poffin boffin at 11:34 PM on December 12, 2017 [63 favorites]


Wow you guys are still up in here? Mrs yoga came to bed around 11 and announced Jones had won. I resigned myself not to watch the news at all today or tonight because I couldn't bear another one of those 'the fucking cheaters pulled another one goddamnit' blows. Now I'm all wired and catching up. And JONESING for cake. Love you guys.
posted by yoga at 11:42 PM on December 12, 2017 [11 favorites]


and no, people didn't think 30 year olds hitting on 15 year olds was okay in Alabama in the '70s and '80s

FWIW I was attending high school in the exact year that Moore was molesting 14 & 15 year olds, and if some 3X year old guy had been hitting on the JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS in our town, I guarantee you we would have stabbed him to death with our mechanical pencils or something.

One of my friends went to junior prom with some guy who was out of high school, maybe 20 years old & she was maybe 17. That was already considered a nearing some kind of borderline.

A thirty-something year old coming onto a 14 year year old? Yeah, not OK then, not OK ever.
posted by flug at 11:54 PM on December 12, 2017 [15 favorites]


I AM BACK

First off: Watch a bar full of tired, happy volunteers and staff in Tuscaloosa react as CNN called the race for Jones (their projection hits around the 30 second mark). Echoes of 2008.

What a week. Highlights:

- Canvassed a neighborhood solo -- second door was an 85-year-old knee surgery patient who'd missed out on the day's organizing event. Decided to walk the neighborhood with me. Ran into a middle aged dude in an ATHF shirt tuning his Corvette -- said he'd be driving two hours north just to help his mom vote for Jones. Last house was a mid-60s staunch Republican HOA president who said she hated Moore and was for Jones 100%.

- Knocked doors this weekend with an awesome volunteer who asked off work and came all the way here from Colorado just to help us out. Also learned that our fantastic organizer from Birmingham is juggling running our field office with taking her LSATs. whut.

- Spent all yesterday morning hiking up and down Northwood Lake, one of the largest (and apparently hilliest) subdivisions in Alabama. Tons of enthusiastic support, including an amusing War of the Yard Signs between opposing houses, each bedecked with handmade signs for Jones and Moore. Lowlight: the dreaded "country club" neighborhood, in which every street is named Country Club Lane/Drive/Avenue/etc., AND with a letter suffix according to the block it's on.

- Went to vote early... and ran into one of my favorite people walking out as I went in. Good omen! Spent the morning canvassing one of the area's biggest apartment complexes, tried and failed to extract information on folks on the walk list without unit numbers from the front desk, then ended up calling them directly. Drove a dude to the polls and did a passable job distilling the last insane month for somebody who hadn't been following the race closely.

- Finished off the evening knocking doors in a working-class black neighborhood. Literally everyone who was home either had voted or was about to go. At the last house, approached a darkened porch after sunset, nearly getting a heart attack when I realized a little old lady was sitting in a rocking chair right next to me. Said she didn't vote, but when I offered a ride she said she was too cold. Even turned down my jacket. "If you'd gotten here a little earlier, I would have gone," she said. "I've voted in every election, but not this one." HEARTBREAKING.

- Ended up driving another elderly lady to her polling place half an hour before closing -- though she did trip on a curb and had a scary fall! Got up, dusted herself off, and said she was fine and let's go! She had bad eyes, too, so I had to sign up as an Official Assistant to help her fill in the bubble.

The energy at the after-party was insane. Virtually every person there had an "I VOTED" sticker and some kind of Jones swag. Buttons, stickers, shirts and hats, light-up donkey pins, raven stickers saying "NEVER MOORE". Folks started out jittery and anxious, as results trickled in and Moore maintained a narrow lead. Then my brother in LA texted me the link to the NYT tracker, and I realized the bar TV with CNN was at least a couple minutes behind real-time results. Watching the latest hopeful updates race around the room in furtive bursts was magical. Our DNC staffer confided internal polls were looking VERY good. Then NYTimes called it. Then FOX called it. Then CNN called it, and there was PANDEMONIUM. Like Alabama's own 2008 election. The happiest group of political wonks you've ever seen south of the Mason-Dixon line. (Biggest applause line of the night? Jones forcefully calling for the renewal of the Children's Health Insurance Program.)

Thanks to all MeFites wherever you are who put in time, money, effort, or just good vibes. We could not have achieved this incredible victory without the help of passionate, caring people like you all across the country and the world. Tomorrow will be a better day for Alabama and for the nation... lord willing and the creek don't rise.
posted by Rhaomi at 12:03 AM on December 13, 2017 [267 favorites]


Also please enjoy this verbatim transcript of me and my brother's real-time text message convo (which was almost as good as the death of the GOP healthcare repeal bill):
>95%!!!!
Just heard our DNC guy say it DOC ME

FOX NEWS CALLED OR

IT
ISSJENEHRHEJJEKSNEBEJEJEJKDD

NYT CALLED IT!!!!!!!!!!!
I AM DEAD

AND DEAF
I AM IN AWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jones is a total qt
posted by Rhaomi at 12:15 AM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


raven stickers saying "NEVER MOORE"

I didn't know this was a thing. I would have worn the fuck out of those.
posted by greermahoney at 12:21 AM on December 13, 2017 [47 favorites]


Not to be Debbie Downer, but a 1.5% win over a candidate as hideous as Moore doesn't bode well for 2018 when this seat is up for re-election. They'll just find someone with equally as bad views as Moore but hasn't been caught trolling playgrounds for dates and the evangelicals will come running to vote again. All the other GOP anti-Moore's like Flake and the NSRC will come out in support of the GOP candidate as usual.
posted by PenDevil at 12:50 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


As a Modernist nerd, I say Moore is Less.
posted by honey-barbara at 1:05 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


PenDevil, Jones will serve until the end of Sessions' original term, which would be in 2020. There's a decent chance Jones could pull a McCaskill and narrowly survive re-election in a red state by virtue of incumbency and riding on the coattails of a strong Democratic presidential ticket.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 AM on December 13, 2017 [40 favorites]


I know there is an effort to make political threads more signal, less noise, so I apologize for my content-free comment here.

I just wanted to say how wonderful it is to read a positive, happy, and joyous political thread on the blue. It's been way too long since there's been this level of good vibes in a political thread.

Also, congrats everyone in Alabama, and thanks especially to Rhaomi for your hard work and great update.
posted by el io at 1:12 AM on December 13, 2017 [28 favorites]


Ok, he has a bit more time in which case I expect his ability to hold onto the seat depends on the size of the hopeful blue wave in 2018 and the ability of the GOP to run an 'acceptable' candidate to get the evangelicals back out there.
posted by PenDevil at 1:13 AM on December 13, 2017


It's going to be hard - Alabama was considered a lock for Moore for a reason - but I think we've got three years to convince those Alabamians who didn't vote for Jones that this particular Democrat is okay. Incumbency will help, Democratic enthusiasm in 2020 will help, and then there's the social change leftists are going to have to push to transform America, some of which will directly help Alabama (health care, better wages) and some of which will blunt the hostility to Democrats in the electorate (directly attacking the abortion myth).

We also don't know who the Republicans are going to nominate. It might be Roy Moore again. It's not like they have control over their base.

In any case, I'm sure that in the next couple of years, Doug Jones can do right by his electorate and the American people, and that's what he should be ultimately judged on.
posted by Merus at 1:18 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


Good job Alabama, now all Americans head for the big blue wave (I can't do any fancy photoshopping right now, maybe someone else can?)
posted by mumimor at 1:32 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


Can someone who knows (this may be exactly no one) explain what Cory Gardner's on about? What in the world would lead him to reasonably expect a Democrat and successful prosecutor of Ku Klux Klan murderers to vote with Republicans, the home of white supremacist fascists? Did I miss something, some old Alabama tradition or something, or is this yet another case of Republicans living in an alternative universe?
posted by riverlife at 1:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


Just woke up to this news; what a great start to the day! I’m hearing that even though Trump has congratulated Jones, Moore is refusing to concede. The man just won’t accept reality.

As to riverlife’s comment above, I’m not sure what Cory Gardener said, but here in the south a lot of Democrats try to run as Republican Lite, breaking with the national party on things like abortion rights and gun laws. It’s a strategy that rarely works (as demonstrated by John Barrow from my district) but Jones may still try it. Even an unreliable Democratic vote is still preferable to a committed theocratic loon, though.
posted by TedW at 2:18 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


I just took a peek at t_d and what really seems to have stung the hardcore Trumpists there (aside from, well, losing) was the chant of 'USA, USA' at the Jones victory party. Amusingly, they seem to consider it fascist... and they don't mean that as a compliment.

Exactly how learning what most annoys deplorables influences your dealings with them is entirely up to you.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 2:20 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


Can someone who knows (this may be exactly no one) explain what Cory Gardner's on about? What in the world would lead him to reasonably expect a Democrat and successful prosecutor of Ku Klux Klan murderers to vote with Republicans, the home of white supremacist fascists? Did I miss something, some old Alabama tradition or something, or is this yet another case of Republicans living in an alternative universe?

I have to assume his gist is something like this: if the "R" candidate hadn't been an alleged pedophile, then he would have won, and Alabama really likes Republicans more than Democrats, so the Democrat that got elected should vote how most Alabama folks want him to vote - Republican.

At the end of the day Cory was verbalizing some wishful thinking. And yeah, a Democrat from the south may end up being more conservative in many ways than a Democrat from say California. But it's wishful delusional thinking on his part. Hey, everyone can *ask* for a pony, right?

I mean, it might have been a reasonable ask if Jones had run on a platform that was conservative - but he didn't (right? actual policy analysis is of course lacking from coverage of this, like every, political race).
posted by el io at 3:00 AM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


I just took a peek at t_d

What is t_d?
posted by Room 641-A at 3:13 AM on December 13, 2017


Room 641-A: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//r/The_Donald
posted by mdonley at 3:15 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


t_d is a cesspool of alt-right nazi's.
posted by Pendragon at 3:17 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


This is a big if, but if (when!) the D's retake the senate or house (or both) they would be wise to give newly elected D's in formerly red areas a bit of pork, or at least some highly visible legislation to sponsor that provides real on-the-ground evidence that electing democrats means good things for the people who do so.
posted by maxwelton at 3:23 AM on December 13, 2017 [37 favorites]


That'll do America, that'll do. (wipes another tear)
posted by Molesome at 3:25 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


Oh wow, now Trump is saying he knew all along Moore would never win. It must be hard being right all the time.
posted by TedW at 3:40 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


Nes Gadol Haya B'Alabama

Also, still relevant: Hi, it's us. The 14 year old girls in America
posted by Mchelly at 3:54 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


I wonder if Donny is getting sick of winning yet?
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:54 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


Postcards to Voters sent 350,000 handwritten postcards to Alabama voters. It’s hard to even wrap my head around the scale of that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:06 AM on December 13, 2017 [49 favorites]


There is a lesson here for everyone who worked so hard to make this happen, everyone who wrote postcards, everyone who canvassed neighborhoods, everyone who gave their support, and everyone who cheered Doug Jones on to victory.

this is the unshackled power of Horse Twitter
posted by delfin at 4:12 AM on December 13, 2017 [25 favorites]


Those of you who worked so tirelessly on this campaign in Alabama are heroes. Thank you. Thank you for showing that grassroots effort delivers results, and wins. Thank you for giving someone observing this from afar hope that I might visit my country of birth sometime in the future and not be quite as afraid.

Today's events are good. You are heroes.
posted by michswiss at 4:30 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


"Postcards to Voters sent 350,000 handwritten postcards to Alabama voters. It’s hard to even wrap my head around the scale of that."

I am 5 months pregnant with a half Hispanic girl, and I was mostly avoiding politics because it felt way too depressing and stressful.

I needed the break but this victory has made me hopeful again!. I just finished a couple of Spanish translations for the ACLU and promise to make postcards.

Good job, everyone! I don't know how I would survive this without mefi.
posted by Tarumba at 4:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [49 favorites]


>Can someone who knows (this may be exactly no one) explain what Cory Gardner's on about?

I think he means it wasn't a fair contest because the Republicans would have won if they hadn't nominated a child molester. If circumstances were reversed, the winning Republican candidate would do the right thing and vote with the Democrats. (snort)
posted by Sing Or Swim at 4:37 AM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


Great news to wake up to.

I did a bunch of fundraisers this year for various causes and candidates, and also for the local postcard writers.
One of my fellow band members said last week (at a house party for Jones- $1400 raised) that all of our candidates have won so far. Glad that we had not sung in vain.
I guess we're going to be playing a lot in 2018.
posted by MtDewd at 4:44 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


Went to bed happy last night, woke up happy this morning. What a change. It gives me hope for 2018 & a closer step towards impeachment. I made the commitment this year to work for You Can Vote because I think signing people up and reminding them to get to the polls is the way forward to a more progressive future. We just need to tell people that the government can work for them instead of against them but it requires going to the polls and casting votes for the best candidate. I live in hope of turning North Carolina Blue.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:50 AM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


Ok now let's do Ted Cruz. Texas, you're on the clock. - posted by T.D. Strange

You have some company thinking this.

@JulianCastro (Obama HUD Secretary, former Mayor of San Antonio)
Be afraid, @tedcruz. Be very afraid.

@brhodes (Ben Rhodes, Obama foreign policy advisor/speechwriter)
Seems like Dems should go all out to take down Ted Cruz. A more favorable state than Alabama and a loathsome politician.

@mattyglesias (Vox)
A lot of AZ-SEN talk but Ted Cruz’s numbers are really bad. Note that Roy Moore, who just lost and molests children, actually has a higher favorable rating in AL than Ted Cruz has in TX. CHART
posted by chris24 at 4:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [65 favorites]


Who could Dems recruit in Texas? Castro?
posted by saturday_morning at 5:00 AM on December 13, 2017


There's already a good D candidate in Beto O'Rourke.
posted by chris24 at 5:03 AM on December 13, 2017 [40 favorites]


When GOPers are saying that a "regular Republican" could have won in Alabama and it was just the foolishness of nominating a child molester: Well, that doesn't matter because the GOP has become the party that nominates child molesters. It's like saying that you could totally have stayed hydrated if you'd chosen to drink water instead of espresso, like saying that proves something about your choices. It's like saying that if the GOP became far left, they could have my vote - true, but totally irrelevant.
posted by Frowner at 5:19 AM on December 13, 2017 [76 favorites]


Can someone tell Bernie?

@AndyRichter
The next time somebody suggests Democrats make an effort to pander to Trumpists just say the word “Alabama” and hopefully they’ll sit right down
posted by chris24 at 5:22 AM on December 13, 2017 [68 favorites]


Oh SWEET.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:24 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


Well, that doesn't matter because the GOP has become the party that nominates child molesters.

In their defence, the story broke after he was nominated. He was just a plain old twice-impeached-judge-who-wished-to-time-travel-back-to-when-he-could-own-other-humans-as-property candidate back then.
posted by PenDevil at 5:24 AM on December 13, 2017 [58 favorites]


When GOPers are saying that a "regular Republican" could have won in Alabama and it was just the foolishness of nominating a child molester

Child molesters are "regular republicans," by application of 'Hastert's razor' and its 'Sandusky Corollary.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:28 AM on December 13, 2017 [27 favorites]


And this show has more influence than any intelligence agency or cabinet department.

@existentialfish
Fox & Friends host on Doug Jones winning in Alabama: "This was not a referendum on Trump. I feel like it was a referendum on Harvey Weinstein"
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 5:31 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


This rejection of a candidate specifically and enthusiastically endorsed by Trump was not a referendum on Trump. I feel like it was a referendum on Tastes Great vs Less Filling.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:36 AM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


"This was not a referendum on Trump. I feel like it was a referendum on Harvey Weinstein"

Why not both.gif?

No seriously. There aren't vast swathes of difference between the two. Both have used their power and position to take advantage of women. Both are pretty unrepentant. Both have MULTIPLE accusations against them.

This isn't one of the other.
posted by Twain Device at 5:41 AM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


The Alabama GOP is not going along with Moore in calling for a recount and is accepting the vote.
posted by chris24 at 5:44 AM on December 13, 2017 [29 favorites]


Governor Mike Huckabee tweets:
Roy Moore won’t concede; says will wait on God to speak. God wasn’t registered to vote in AL but the ppl who voted did speak and it wasn’t close enough for recount. In elections everyone does NOT get a trophy. I know first hand but it’s best to exit with class.
posted by ZeusHumms at 5:48 AM on December 13, 2017 [52 favorites]


God, agreeing with Kristol and Rubin is hard enough. Now Huckabee?!?
posted by chris24 at 5:50 AM on December 13, 2017 [31 favorites]


It’s not so much that you’re agreeing with them, as much as it is that they’re experiencing rare moments of common decency and fair play that the rest of us consider a basic part of a democratic society.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:52 AM on December 13, 2017 [66 favorites]


Breitbart Radio has callers howling at the moon about everything you'd expect. The frequent refrain is "We need an Article V Convention of the States" and even Bannon keeps asking "...to do what, exactly?"

ROY MOORE: I will wait on God to speak.
GOD: When I said "Go to the mall" back then I meant that you should go get an Orange Julius, dummy.
posted by delfin at 5:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


The frequent refrain is "We need an Article V Convention of the States"

One of the big wishes of the nutjob right is to get rid of the 17th Amendment which established Senators being selected by statewide vote rather than by the state legislature. And of course they want this since they have many state houses gerrymandered all to hell where Ds get 60+% of the vote and still don't have a majority of the legislature.
posted by chris24 at 5:57 AM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


Oh wow, now Trump is saying he knew all along Moore would never win. It must be hard being right all the time.

To fair, Trump did say that Alabama voters would do the right thing. And look, they did!
posted by clawsoon at 5:57 AM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


> God wasn’t registered to vote in AL...

Mike Huckabee is a POS, but that's a quality burn.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:01 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


@ariberman:
54 years ago Addie Mae Collins, Cynthia Wesley, Carole Robertson & Carol Denise McNair killed by KKK in Birmingham Church Bombing

Today Alabama sent the man who prosecuted their killers to the Senate

The vote has power
posted by gwint at 6:02 AM on December 13, 2017 [85 favorites]


Of the 349,709 postcards sent to Democrats in Alabama through Postcards To Voters, I wrote and mailed 235 - from Oregon!

Join us! Text HELLO to (484) ASK-ABBY or (484) 275-2229.
posted by hilaryjade at 6:08 AM on December 13, 2017 [61 favorites]


"This was not a referendum on Trump. I feel like it was a referendum on Harvey Weinstein"

Why not both.gif?

No seriously. There aren't vast swathes of difference between the two. Both have used their power and position to take advantage of women. Both are pretty unrepentant. Both have MULTIPLE accusations against them.

This isn't one of the other.


Harvey Weinstein is Fox's dogwhistle for BUT BUT DEMOCRATS
posted by Fleebnork at 6:09 AM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


GOD: When I said "Go to the mall" back then I meant that you should go get an Orange Julius, dummy.

One would hope that Moore is banned from there too.
posted by bonehead at 6:12 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


He got his phone back and now he's playing the "i told you it wouldn't work" card:
The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the General Election. I was right! Roy worked hard but the deck was stacked against him!
-- @RealDonaldTrump
posted by murphy slaw at 6:22 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


The deck was stacked against a Republican in Alabama... Alrighty then.

Also, Strange's numbers didn't go up. And Donny has now lost three straight major races where he endorsed. Strange, Gillespie, and Moore. So much winning.
posted by chris24 at 6:23 AM on December 13, 2017 [53 favorites]


A RECAP:

*Bannon breathes heavily.*
Trump (enthusiastically): "Yay Roy Moore!"
*McConnell waves frantically*
Trump (through gritted teeth): "Luther, Luther, he's our man. If he can't do it, meh."
Luther LOSES, indicating Trump endorsement doesn't mean much to Fascists.
*Bannon breathes heavily.*
*Trump deletes Luther endorsement tweets.*
Trump: "Good Job, Roy Moore and also Me!"
*Roy Moore outed as even bigger POS than we could imagine*
Every other Republican: "Drop out so we don't lose the seat."
Roy Moore: "Fuck you, got Jesus."
Trump (enthusiastically): "Yay Roy Moore! I strongly endorse him!"
Moore LOSES, indicating Alabama full of good decent people.
Trump: "I was right all along."
posted by leotrotsky at 6:24 AM on December 13, 2017 [62 favorites]


@JVLast
Give Bannon and Trump credit: They said they were going to redraw the map in ways establishment Republicans never dreamed about.

Promises made; promises kept.
posted by chris24 at 6:30 AM on December 13, 2017 [66 favorites]


This is amazing. This gives me hope that the Democrats can take back the congress next November and that Ted Cruz will be among those who fall.
posted by Bee'sWing at 6:36 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


i made the damn fool decision to look at the replies to trump's tweet and among the eye-bleeding dross there was this:
A Narcissist's Prayer

That didn't happen.
And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
And if it was, that's not a big deal.
And if it is, that's not my fault.
And if it was, I didn't mean it.
And if I did...
You deserved it.
(trying to find attribution for that poem on google led me to a hall of social media mirrors…)
posted by murphy slaw at 6:46 AM on December 13, 2017 [74 favorites]


[A few deleted. Let's not make this a general Trump (et al) thread. The catch-all is still open (and about time for a new one at this point), but let's keep this one on topic, at least for this state/senate election and perhaps others upcoming. Thanks.]
posted by taz (staff) at 6:48 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


chris24, you're equating working-class voters with Trumpists, despite the fact that rural and working-class black voters in Alabama just turned out in big numbers and elected Jones, and a majority of college-educated white voters, apparently the only people you're willing to accept as real Democrats, voted for Moore.

As a working-class Democrat myself, I'm really sick of this kind of rhetoric. You need to understand that working-class Democrats exist and that a lot of us aren't white. Black, white and brown working-class people make up a good portion of the Democratic Party.

Oppose Trump's racism and misogyny – Yes! we absolutely need to be to doing that, and vigorously. (You might not think that opposing racism appeals to working-class voters, but it appeals to working-class Democrats. For a lot of us it's a really important issue that affects us personally.)

Stop talking about universal access to health care, and trying to save CHIP and the ACA, because fuck poor people – No, absolutely not! That would be screwing over an important part of the Democratic Party's base. For a lot of us, access to medical care is an issue of survival. A fuck-you on these issues is a path to getting Democrats to stay home and losing elections.

(Fortunately, most Democratic politicians seem to be smarter than this. Jones certainly is. The guy ran on trying to save CHIP among other things. A lot of his constituents depend on this program to get medical care for their kids.)
posted by nangar at 6:49 AM on December 13, 2017 [42 favorites]


chris24, you're equating working-class voters with Trumpists

I have no idea why this...
Can someone tell Bernie?

@AndyRichter
The next time somebody suggests Democrats make an effort to pander to Trumpists just say the word “Alabama” and hopefully they’ll sit right down
...generated your response. I'm not sure if you're misreading Richter's tweet or my snark about Bernie's repeated desire to focus on WWC to the exclusion of race, but the post isn't dismissing people of color or working class Dems. It's dismissing the fool's errand of some Dems wanting to focus on getting white racists back instead of appealing to the true base of the Dems; POC and the poor and middle class. Which appears to be what you want. So not sure why you're angry with me.
posted by chris24 at 6:58 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


nangar, I think you have it backwards. What chris24 is objecting to is precisely the equivocation that working class = white and that to appeal to working class voters one must appeal to whiteness.
posted by lydhre at 6:59 AM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


First: Woo fucking hoo!!! Good job Alabama!

I think, to a large extent, most people need a kick in the ass to get them to vote, and Trump provided one hell of a kick in the ass. We've seen more and better GOTV work post-Trump than we've seen in years, it's unfortunate that this surge will probably sputter out once we've won (for all time, of course) in 2020, but that does seem to be the way it goes.

Taking out Ted Cruz seems a lot more likely after this win in Alabama, we may well turn Texas a bit purple in 2018, and that's amazing too.

I think we've also demonstrated just how purple Alabama really is, and I hope that a lot of voters there have awakened to their power. The next state elections might go a bit different. I'm not at all sure we'll be able to keep Doug Jones in office come 2018 if the Republicans run a candidate who isn't a child molester, but we'll see. I'm hoping we can keep the momentum going until at least 2020.
posted by sotonohito at 7:03 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


So there was voter suppression in this election. And yet there was still enough turnout to overcome that. To me this says that there's still enough democratic underpinnings in this country that we can win. This is still not a country where the ruling party can openly and completely throw an election - they still have to be crafty and can't do it 100%.

Similarly, I was thinking that if the courts are packed with right wing judges, we need to win legislatures so we can change the laws. The courts work for us when the legislature doesn't, but if the courts stop working, we go back to the legislature. This sucks and it's difficult, but it's not impossible. And when we get the legislatures back, we can fix voting. It needs to be a strongly held American norm that everyone who wants to vote should be able to vote, and that any practice which disenfranchises people in an obviously unjust/targeted way should be stopped, and that "everyone gets to vote" should not be undercut by anyone of any party. I think that if this is put plainly by Democratic candidates, most people will understand and agree.
posted by Frowner at 7:07 AM on December 13, 2017 [47 favorites]


Yes. Most red states are purple, and Alabama is on the redder end of the spectrum. The 30 to 49 percent of registered Dems in those States have been ignored for too long. Rise up, rise up.
posted by jetsetsc at 7:11 AM on December 13, 2017 [34 favorites]


Frowner's point reminds me that Twice-impeached pedophile Roy Moore was a judge, and was impeached.

Federal judges can also be impeached. They were going to impeach Mark Fuller if he didn't resign. "Trump appointee" might need to be an impeachable offense in itself.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:16 AM on December 13, 2017 [28 favorites]


Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier (Nate Silver, 538)
Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018. Not every race is going to go as badly for Republicans as this Alabama Senate election — but if enough go half as badly, or even a third as badly, they’re still in for a rough time next year.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:19 AM on December 13, 2017 [16 favorites]


@KevinMKruse
Maybe instead of blowing money on pointless TV ads urging Republicans to impeach their own party's president, liberal billionaires could fund the NAACP's 2018 get-out-the-vote campaigns.
posted by chris24 at 7:24 AM on December 13, 2017 [93 favorites]


this is the unshackled power of Horse Twitter

Unbridled, surely
posted by orrnyereg at 7:25 AM on December 13, 2017 [127 favorites]


I didn't have any cake, and it was too freezing cold to go to the local for a beverage, so, does a pint of Haagen Dazs chocolate truffle whisky ice cream count? I even got the empty carton out with the recycling this morning!
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 7:32 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier (Nate Silver, 538)

Using this particular election as a benchmark to measure future ones elsewhere in the country seems a little hit or miss. Moore was dogged by so many scandals of his own making that the blame for his downfall has to rest squarely on his shoulders. Alabama voted for Trump in 2016 knowing full well he was a lying, sexist blowhard who had gone after a gold star family. In fact, Trump won Alabama by 63% to 35%, the largest margin of any candidate since 1972. Have they soured on him so quickly?

Nope:
In January, Trump's approval rating in Alabama was 62 percent, according to Morning Consult. That figure dipped slightly in September, down to 59 percent. During the same period, his disapproval rating grew from 26 percent to 36 percent.

Nationally, Alabama gave Trump his third-highest approval rating in September, behind only Wyoming (61 percent) and West Virginia (60 percent).
It seems unlikely that this election was decided by anti-Trump sentiment.

Trump's approval rating could easily sink the GOP in any other election next year. Hope like hell that happens. But framing that around what happened last night in Alabama isn't a good idea except in the most general terms.
posted by zarq at 7:36 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


Did you read the whole 538 piece, zarq? It addresses many of your concerns.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:38 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


> Not to be Debbie Downer, but a 1.5% win over a candidate as hideous as Moore doesn't bode well for 2018 when this seat is up for re-election. [...]

> Ok, he has a bit more time in which case I expect his ability to hold onto the seat depends on the size of the hopeful blue wave in 2018 and the ability of the GOP to run an 'acceptable' candidate to get the evangelicals back out there.

Let's assume you're correct here -- that this is just a ~3 year anomaly where the Democrats can't possibly expect to hold the seat in 2020. Just think about what this means for the Republicans. Now they have to devote serious resources to defending deep-red seats, even in states where they don't nominate pedophiles (I'm sure there will be some.)

They also have to reconsider their strategy of nominating Trumpist candidates, as Trumpism lost yesterday. In so doing, they may have to forego the electoral benefits of having the sitting president campaign for them. If Trumpism can be defeated in a special election in an Alabama Senate seat, how can a Republican in an R+3 congressional district go anywhere near such a toxic political asset? Yes, he'll turn out the base, but if the base wasn't enough to win in Alabama, I don't think it's just child molesting candidates that are going to have issues.

Say all you want about how weak their candidate was -- that's who they chose to run. Even if they have better candidates in other seats, the party needs to have enough cohesion and discipline to run them. I can assure you that Trump/Bannon-allied functionaries within the party are rallying the troops to ensure that they run more Moore-like candidates. Even if that side doesn't win out, the battle for the direction of the party takes up resources that they could use to go on offense had Moore won yesterday.

Doug Jones' win is about more than one seat. It's about putting the GOP on defense heading into the mid-terms and beyond.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:39 AM on December 13, 2017 [47 favorites]


From the Politico article about the DNC's stealth operations, linked by Chrysotom above:
Democratic super PAC American Bridge funded ads including one encouraging persuadable conservatives to vote for University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban, in an effort to drag down Moore’s support.
Not gonna lie, this made me lol.
posted by mhum at 7:42 AM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


Jones just better not kowtow to the fascists who say he should side with the GOP in the Senate. A majority of Alabama voters might think they want that, but they're obviously voting against their own interests. I'm doubtful they will re-elect him in favor of some clean Marine-type GOP up and comer in 2020.
posted by Burhanistan at 7:42 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


Strange wasn't a weak candidate and Moore beat him soundly. That's their problem: Trumpists win primaries but are then vulnerable to Dems in the general. EVEN IN ALABAMA.

So let's exploit the fuck out of this and run for every goddamn seat.
posted by lydhre at 7:45 AM on December 13, 2017 [72 favorites]


Leonardo Carella: If yesterday's Alabama Senate race had been a House election, the Republicans, who got *fewer* votes, would have won 6 out of 7 seats, and the Democrats, who *won* the vote statewide, only 1 out of 7.

That's how gerrymandered Alabama is.


(click through -- the image is worthwhile)
posted by Dashy at 7:47 AM on December 13, 2017 [36 favorites]


I'd also like to specifically thank the black women of Alabama, they're the ones who did a lot of the groundwork, and their vote was well over 98% for Jones.

Note to people elsewhere: support your local black women, they're badass.
posted by sotonohito at 7:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [48 favorites]


I am hopeful that a significant chunk of Trump voters out there are going to take away one primary message from this election: Trump took one of the most inevitably Republican senate seats and allowed it to be captured by a Democrat. Trump is not a winner; he is bad at his job, just as Roy Moore was bad at his job, and in the same ways. I am hopeful that this will put a dent in Trump's already abysmal approval rating.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:52 AM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


> I have no idea why this... ...generated your response.

It was your snark "Can someone tell Bernie?" in this context that I was reacting to. Not Andy Richter's tweet, but your snark on top of that tweet. A lot of the anger directed at Sanders by moderate Democrats was anger about his calls for universal access to health care and talking about income income inequality. I took your comment as meaning 'this is why Bernie and progressive Democrats need to shut the fuck up about access to health care and other issues affecting poor and working-class voters'. That's not my take-away from the Alabama election at all.

You say you meant something else. But I'm not sure what else you did mean.
posted by nangar at 7:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


Rosie M. Banks: From Wisconsin Representative Gwen Moore's Twitter:

Another #RoyMoore supporter just called my office posing as an @AP reporter.

Once their cover was blown they started screaming & called me & my staff the n-word & other racial slurs.


Winding waaay back, wtf is up with this? Is this conservatives trying to pull a Project Veritas "sting," and when being outted, rip off their "normal human being" masks full Scooby Doo villain style and display that they were vile racists all along?

Because if this is now a thing, I'd love to hear audio of it.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:54 AM on December 13, 2017 [22 favorites]


You say you meant something else. But I'm not sure what else you did mean.

I think "Can someone tell Bernie" was just short for "Can someone tell Bernie that courting the white working class isn't at all required to win veryveryvery difficult-to-win elections"
posted by 23skidoo at 8:05 AM on December 13, 2017 [50 favorites]


[One deleted. This needs to not be about Bernie and Hillary.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:13 AM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


I think "Can someone tell Bernie" was just short for "Can someone tell Bernie that courting the white working class isn't at all required to win veryveryvery difficult-to-win elections"

Exactly.

I took your comment as meaning 'this is why Bernie and progressive Democrats need to shut the fuck up about access to health care and other issues affecting poor and working-class voters. ... You say you meant something else. But I'm not sure what else you did mean.

I grew up in South Dakota in a dirt poor single-parent family and I wouldn't be here today without government assistance that helped feed us, cloth us, and educate us. It's still impossible for me to not eat my entire plate or waste food because I know what it's like to worry about the next meal. My entire family is blue collar - farmers, postmen, military - and I was the first person on either side of the family to go to college. I can see where you might possibly read it your way, but I think it's a pretty uncharitable read.
posted by chris24 at 8:14 AM on December 13, 2017 [23 favorites]


From where I watched it happen in Michigan, it sure seemed like the white working class threw the election to Trump. It was sad to watch my blue state falter and my well-meaning but frustrated white working class relatives get conned by his fake populism. I'd sure like it if Dems didn't risk alienating them by ignoring them and writing them off.
posted by scrowdid at 8:14 AM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


Justinian Current Victory Level (JCVL): Cake!*

*Junior Justinian Victory Achievers may also enjoy chocolate, ice cream, or whatever favorites your comments during the celebration period
posted by petebest at 8:17 AM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


Moore still won a majority of whites (including two thirds of white women) (Aamna Modin, Quartz).

It makes me want to disenfranchise white people (and I'm white). More seriously, if black women are the backbone of the Democratic party, then by rights there should be more black women in office. Not because of some "quota," but because those who are doing the hard work ought to be reaping some reward. Maybe that's something that the bench-building wing of the Democratic party can look at.

It's very apparent to me that kissing working-class white and "swing voter" butt isn't what wins Democrats elections. It's getting out the vote. If a sizable portion of white people are going to vote for a damn child molester if he's got an (R) by his name, then I think that the Democrats are wasting their time and money chasing after them. We have plenty of people who love us, or at least tepidly like us. We need to get them to the polls, because that worked.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:20 AM on December 13, 2017 [71 favorites]


I'd sure like it if Dems didn't risk alienating them by ignoring them and writing them off.

Write them off? Absolutely not. But have a platform that doesn't support minorities, non-voting white working classes, immigrants, LGBT, etc. to cater to their prejudices? No. I want everyone in the working class to be extended a helping hand, but if some people refuse to take it unless I retract the hand I'm extending to a brown person, I'm not going to agree and I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time trying to change their mind.
posted by Candleman at 8:22 AM on December 13, 2017 [59 favorites]


From where I watched it happen in Michigan, it sure seemed like the white working class threw the election to Trump.

Is that what actually happened, though?

I'd sure like it if Dems didn't risk alienating them by ignoring them and writing them off.

What's being asked is that POC--and especially WOC and working-class POC--be given the same amount of voice and influence in the party rather than just a bunch of lip service. That's a lot different than what you're characterizing it as.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:24 AM on December 13, 2017 [9 favorites]




I want everyone in the working class to be extended a helping hand, but if some people refuse to take it unless I retract the hand I'm extending to a brown person, I'm not going to agree and I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time trying to change their mind.

Thanks, Candleman, that encapsulates perfectly what I'm thinking. Economic and social justice should go together. No way should any Democrat play to white prejudice. If a poor white person doesn't want a WPA job or universal health care because oh no a brown person might benefit and a slut might get an abortion!!!!111111, welp, walk away, cut off your nose to spite your face, but we're not going to have "WHITES ONLY" signs above hiring halls and medical clinics.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:27 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


Democrats can't completely ignore the white vote. Had white women or even white men broken a few points towards Moore, he would have won. We white people are an important part of the coalition. One problem is that we have been acting like we are the coalition for far too long. (Not entirely, the Democratic Party is not the Republican Party, but to a large degree)

The reality is that white people and white men most especially are not a large part of the Democratic base, even in many less wealthy areas. For that reason it only makes sense to elevate women and PoC. I'm sure there are some white women who are either good people or who have brothers, fathers, and sons who they will look out for in office while not making everything about us as it has been for so long.
posted by wierdo at 8:28 AM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


Alabamian whites are not whites across America. Alabamian whites are far more Christian evangelical and conservative. Catholic whites, for example, are more tractable to progressive policies.

If the victory of Alabama teaches the Democratic Party anything, it's that we need a diverse coalition of every race. Black women are our MVP and we can't neglect our MVP and think they can pull it through while we work on the weaker members of the team (white working class, for example). If the Democrats are returning to a 50-state strategy, they also need to constantly build that coalition, to hammer home that everyone (but especially the disadvantaged) in society benefits from Democratic policy.

The best surprise about Doug Jones? He's pro-choice. A pro-choice Democrat won in Alabama, which hopefully will stop the slide on reproductive rights that conservative Democrats sometimes have. Democratic values are winners and we don't need to compromise them to win, just tweak the messaging a bit wherever we go.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 8:30 AM on December 13, 2017 [38 favorites]


Sorry, I just realized that came out shitty. I was trying to say that even race baiting misogynist assholes have to acknowledge that even if PoC were overrepresented in government and women made up the rest of it we white men would still do fine.
posted by wierdo at 8:31 AM on December 13, 2017


It's very apparent to me that kissing working-class white and "swing voter" butt isn't what wins Democrats elections. It's getting out the vote.

Getting out the vote to people of color in particular, especially since they vote mostly Democratic and since they are most likely to be negatively impacted by voter suppression efforts, and because having POC and the choices of POC in office, representing the interests that impact them the most, would benefit all of society the most.

I agree that trying to win the irrational Bible thumper vote is a losing cause and not a vote we need, or even want. Their ideology is spectacularly unhealthy and directly in opposition to a thriving democracy. We should be marginalizing their voice, not seeking to be the ones to represent it. The GOP has been doing that for 25 years and look at what has become of their party and the states in which their majority has governed. Why do we want to go down that same road? Let’s court the rationals.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:31 AM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


But, if we're going to be celebrating any particular part of that coalition today, I'm fine with holding our MVP on our shoulders and asking "What can we do to get you in the game more?"
posted by Lord Chancellor at 8:31 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


looking at the CNN exit poll results by race and age make me ashamed to be a 43 year old white woman.

I'm here to collect my voting block and do my job of convincing as many 40-50 year old white Texas women as I can to NOT vote R. How I see it, WOC are out GOTV and winning the elections that benefit me. The last burden I need to place on the POC in this country is collecting my white peers who are out of their damn minds and ignorant on the actual issues facing ALL "ordinary Americans". That's my job, white women are my peers, ergo I'm collecting.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:31 AM on December 13, 2017 [54 favorites]


I don't think that the issue is that we should ignore working-class white people. I don't think we should ignore anyone. I think the issue is that we should not assume that working-class white people are default people, and their concerns are central, while everyone else is a "special interest." Black votes are not a "special interest." Their concerns are not "identity politics," even when those concerns aren't shared by working-class white people.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:33 AM on December 13, 2017 [56 favorites]


> "The CroMAGAnons are going with :::!Rigged!Election!:::"

In Alabama.

Who exactly is supposed to have set up this rigging? Which super-liberals in control of the Alabama government were supposed to have arranged this? Or do they think there's just a button in the state house somewhere marked "throw election to Democrats" that's been lying around unused since 1986 and this year Doug Jones snuck in and pushed it?
posted by kyrademon at 8:38 AM on December 13, 2017 [39 favorites]


I believe they think that actually doing things that involve getting up off the couch counts as rigging an election.
posted by wierdo at 8:40 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


The aim isn't to make sense or construct a conspiracy theory with even the most tenuous internal logic, it's to muddy the waters and cast doubt upon the legitimacy of anything they don't approve of.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:40 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


Something something betrayed by Jeff Sessions is what I was reading last night, who is horrible because he's a RINO who fooled us all and is a bad attorney general because he's not right-wing enough. Something something.
posted by clawsoon at 8:42 AM on December 13, 2017


Is that what actually happened, though?

Yes, as far as my actual lived experience witnessing the surprising amounts of normally-blue white voters goes here in Michigan. I suspect Pennsylvania and Wisconsin looked the same to those actually on the battleground there. Those states had the 80000 votes that swung the election. Mobilizing a larger PoC turnout could have helped erase that, which fine. But in those three states the non-Hispanic white population is about 80 percent, so it's hard to say if it would have been enough to compensate. I just don't think the sentiment that "the white working class is not needed at all to win elections" is a useful strategy at all, and I see it here a lot.
posted by scrowdid at 8:44 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


Who exactly is supposed to have set up this rigging? Which super-liberals in control of the Alabama government were supposed to have arranged this? Or do they think there's just a button in the state house somewhere marked "throw election to Democrats" that's been lying around unused since 1986 and this year Doug Jones snuck in and pushed it?

Jefferson County officials are by and large Democrats and Jefferson county is by and large the biggest county in Alabama. There's plenty of fodder for conspiracy theorists to ferment on.
posted by Talez at 8:45 AM on December 13, 2017


Nancar: "You say you meant something else. But I'm not sure what else you did mean."

I'm pretty sure this is what chris24 is talking about:

""Yes. I mean, I think we’ve got to work in two ways,” Sanders answered. “Number one, we have got to take on Trump’s attacks against the environment, against women, against Latinos and blacks and people in the gay community, we’ve got to fight back every day on those issues. But equally important, or more important: We have got to focus on bread-and-butter issues that mean so much to ordinary Americans.”"


I voted for Bernie in the primaries, but I think it's despicable and divisive to assume that minorities are somehow not "ordinary Americans". That we need to pander to the white poor, like poverty doesn't disproportionately affect minorities. That the problems of "ordinary Americans" are literally MORE important. Minority causes are just an optional add-on that's useful to mention when you need brown votes.

That was the essence of the Bernie Bro: let's talk about poverty, but screw any other type of hardship that doesn't affect me directly, like racism, sexism, or trans-phobia, to name a few. We ended up with another white man telling us that our problems are not as important as those of white men, and that our concerns come second.
posted by Tarumba at 8:46 AM on December 13, 2017 [61 favorites]


Who exactly is supposed to have set up this rigging?

To them, any franchise extended to people who are not white, male landowners is rigging.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:46 AM on December 13, 2017 [9 favorites]


It makes me want to disenfranchise white people (and I'm white). More seriously, if black women are the backbone of the Democratic party, then by rights there should be more black women in office. Not because of some "quota," but because those who are doing the hard work ought to be reaping some reward. Maybe that's something that the bench-building wing of the Democratic party can look at.

*cough*
Kamala Harris.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:47 AM on December 13, 2017 [16 favorites]


It's very apparent to me that kissing working-class white and "swing voter" butt isn't what wins Democrats elections. It's getting out the vote.

Step one is GOTV.

Step two is shutting down voter suppression and disenfranchisement, and passing aggressive laws with TEETH for violating it. Big jail time teeth.

Step three is protecting the sanctity of our elections by putting in vigorous controls preventing election theft and fraud. Even bigger teeth on the laws here.

Step four is making voting simple and easy. National holiday, LOTS of polling places with long hours and short lines, easy and universal mail-in ballots, online voting, etc.

Step five is mandatory voting (a la Australia).
posted by leotrotsky at 8:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [32 favorites]


I think it's kind of an assumption that those who are doing the hard work (black women) want to be in office. Maybe some of them are doing the hard work in large part because they want support in making choices that benefit themselves, their families, their communities - but have no interest in running for political office? I know that I (a white lady) do not want politics to be my life; I want politicians to maintain government as a force working for good in the world so I can fucking get on with things.
Anyway I am sure that some black women are up for the challenge, and absolutely they should be supported by the party, by the community, by all of us. But I think framing political office as a reward for hard work is only true for a fraction of politically active people.
posted by Lawn Beaver at 8:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


Did you read the whole 538 piece, zarq? It addresses many of your concerns.

I barely skimmed it, but will go back and read it more thoroughly. Should have done that in the first place. Thanks for suggesting it. :)
posted by zarq at 8:54 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


"We have got to focus on bread-and-butter issues that mean so much to ordinary Americans.”

When you actually watch Bernie say that quote, you can see that he's not saying it in that bolded way that it's often transcribed, and he's not making the disinction people like to use it out-of-context to imply he is. This quote omits the next thought, which is that these "ordinary Americans" are not worrying about Russian interference in our elections, they're worried about rent, healthcare, college. It's disingenuous when it appears like this.
posted by scrowdid at 8:59 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


[Folks we're now rehearsing greatest hits about Bernie, 2016, etc. It's fine to look forward in here, to think about what worked in this Alabama 2017 election.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:01 AM on December 13, 2017 [24 favorites]


Believing women worked, no?
posted by clawsoon at 9:03 AM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


In November, 2016 Mr. Carmicha insisted Trump would win Wisconsin and probably the presidency. "You need to spend more time looking at the polls," I said. His retort: "You need to spend more time talking to the neighbors." And he was right. Our neighbors are mostly people who identify as working class even though they are wealthy... because they got wealthy by riding the area's massive real estate boom. Some built big contracting firms, others saw it coming and bought a lot of land early, and then there were family farms to subdivide.

But these neighbors have other family/friends who didn't make out on the boom due to inherent risk aversion, personal circumstances (e.g., a family member with a chronic illness), or whatever and are pretty much scraping by given the expensive real estate costs or had to leave the area. The neighbors feel guilty about their success relative to those left behind, but are unwilling to see that there might be personal skills/circumstances that made the difference; they would never put down their friends/families for not being successes. My neighbors are modest people, so all of this makes them double down on their working class identity and also white grievance.

These neighbors are rightly proud of their accomplishments which they see--cognitive dissonance alert--as a product of their personal grit while bemoaning all the things that kept other friends/family down. That stuff couldn't possibly be their fault because that would mean criticizing loved ones: Obama, Clinton and other "libtards" (yes, they've called me that to my face) are definitely to blame. The neighbors all voted for Trump, and now they don't want to talk about it. That's a good sign, I think.
posted by carmicha at 9:03 AM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


@TomPerez: Let me be clear: We won in Alabama and Virginia because #BlackWomen led us to victory. Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party, and we can’t take that for granted. Period.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 AM on December 13, 2017 [93 favorites]


> "Can someone tell Bernie that courting the white working class isn't at all required to win veryveryvery difficult-to-win elections"

It's precisely the mocking of poor and working-class voters' economic insecurities by almost everyone on MetaFilter and pretending that these are concerns that only affect white Republicans that I'm objecting to.

I read chris24's comment in the light of these comments and assumed he was chiming in, yet another installation of 'fuck you and your economic insecurities' on top of the thousands of hateful comments that preceded it. (I don't have health insurance and have some medical issues that need to be looked at, so I take this sort of crap a bit personally.) Obviously I wrong about that, and that was a lot to read into a short snarky comment, so apologies, chris24.
posted by nangar at 9:06 AM on December 13, 2017 [9 favorites]


"I just don't think the sentiment that "the white working class is not needed at all to win elections" is a useful strategy at all, and I see it here a lot."

Also, no matter how much the media is enjoying fetishizing rural whites and WWC voters, it's suburuban, white, older Repbulicans who were and are Trump's "base," voters who look a lot like the media gents fanning themselves over the perfidy of the Appalachian opioid epidemic voter, and who I suspect are NOT taking the heat of the "But WHYYYYYY did they vote for Trump when he's so terrible?" because a lot of media talking heads don't want to face the fact that it's upper-middle-class white suburbanites with kids in good schools LIKE THEMSELVES who did it, and that possibly that means their life choices are a lot more racist than they think.

Yes, the white working class broke towards Trump -- as did a bunch of other constituencies -- but where are the breathless articles wondering WTF is up with the college-educated racist misogynists who wear suits and work in accounting and want to send their kids to Rutgers? Why is that the racism we don't talk about?

I don't think we should let media talking heads drive the conversation about "who the problem is" and who the Dems are doing too much/too little to court, because they've already decided on their narrative, and the fact is that a winning Democratic national campaign is actually 50 local campaigns, and winning the House is hundreds of even smaller campaigns. You don't win in Illinois the same way you win in Rhode Island; you don't win in Chicago the same way you win in Peoria, and definitely not the same way you win in Atlanta. We have to combine the top-down knowledge and skills and data with the bottom-up mobilization and local knowledge, and cross-fertilize like crazy so in Peoria we can say, "Hey, look at this thing they did in Atlanta, can we use that?" and then adapt it for local conditions, with national support.

In some parts of the country, a winning Democrat is going to ride into office on a WWC-focused coalition. Those are going to be the available Democratic-possible voters, and we need to have strategies to reach them. And in other parts of the country, we're looking at very different coalitions with very different needs and concerns, and transplanting the WWC campaign on to a POC area is just dumb. But so is writing off a WWC area! We have to walk and chew gum at the same time, and we HAVE to listen to local experts.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:14 AM on December 13, 2017 [54 favorites]


It's precisely the mocking of poor and working-class voters' economic insecurities by almost everyone on MetaFilter and pretending that these are concerns that only affect white Republicans that I'm objecting to.

Except that's not what's happening when people rightfully point out that "economic anxiety" is nothing more than a dogwhistle. Because the reality is that "economic anxiety" tracked poorly with regards to class - but it correlated quite well with race.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:14 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


OMFG scrowdid, and democratic party in general:

I am an ordinary American. Somehow, I manage to care about poverty, healthcare, and college; AND about people discriminating against me because I'm a brown immigrant woman, or my husband being deported because he's a refugee from a Muslim country.

I will vote for and support your work in the in the former, but fuck me stop telling me the latter don't matter as much.

P.S. plenty of white people care about all of the above as well. And they vote. You don't need to pander to the lowest common denominator.
posted by Tarumba at 9:17 AM on December 13, 2017 [54 favorites]


In some parts of the country, a winning Democrat is going to ride into office on a WWC-focused coalition. Those are going to be the available Democratic-possible voters, and we need to have strategies to reach them. And in other parts of the country, we're looking at very different coalitions with very different needs and concerns, and transplanting the WWC campaign on to a POC area is just dumb. But so is writing off a WWC area! We have to walk and chew gum at the same time, and we HAVE to listen to local experts.

We also need to not sell our soul to win as well. There may be areas where the only way to win is to repudiate what we believe in - and in those cases, the answer is, sadly, that we do have to write them off.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:22 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


I see that the good feeling has already worn off. Too much cake, or not enough?
posted by clawsoon at 9:23 AM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


It seems patently obvious to me that policies that help non-white working-class people also help white working-class people, while the inverse is not true. So let's boost the worst off among us, and let the rising tide lift all the boats.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:26 AM on December 13, 2017 [23 favorites]


"working class" is one of those phrases that means something different to everyone who uses it. My friend the cop thinks he's working class - but he brings in ~140k a year with overtime, and his wife the accountant adds another 120k on top of that. How they figure they're working class I don't know, but there it is. There's also my other friend who owns a garage - granted, he spends a fair amount of time working under hoods, but he's also through HS friends managed to land some sweetheart contracts and pulls down about 200k a year. He also calls himself working class.

Point is - both these guys grew up WWC and that's part of their identity. They work jobs that are coded working class, and are to some definition working class, even as they make far more than the median. Even with the (relatively) high income, they feel (more or less rightly) far more economic insecurity than they think they should - a cancer diagnosis from a spouse or child would be ruinous, for example. And their retirement isn't growing at the 12% the financial articles say it should be, they don't have nearly as much in their accounts as they are told they should, health insurance costs as much as their car payments or mortgage and thats with the employer subsidy, and SS is going to be broke - so how are they going to afford retirement ? And college for the kids ?

They don't have a vacation house in Reno or take summers in France or any of that "upper class" stuff - so why would they identify as other than middle/working class ? I mean, yeah, I grew up on government cheese so these anxieties are amusing - but that makes them no less real as an experience.

Point I'm trying to make is that WWC as a phrase has been smushed into meaninglessness and Fox News et al have done a great job of identifying and amplifying the insecurities inherent in a high income/low wealth middle class existence - to all of our detriment.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 9:27 AM on December 13, 2017 [25 favorites]


And in other parts of the country, we're looking at very different coalitions with very different needs and concerns,

FWIW, I see a lot of similarities between Texas and Alabama right now, which is why I am interested in the exit polls and the motivations on the ground in Alabama. I believe there's a lot to be learned from this that can be indirectly applied to the upcoming midterms in Texas.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:29 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


So, last night while trying to deal with the fact that the sewer pipe in my new house is both backed up and full of holes and therefore leaking raw sewage into my basement, I tripped and fell while carrying a 10 gallon bucket of waste water, and somehow managed to dislocate my knee.

After lying in cold waste water for a good 25-30 minutes while waiting for the paramedics to arrive and then figure out how the hell to get me out of my basement without damaging my knee, with every shiver bringing a fresh spasm of pain from my knee, they got me into the ambulance. On the ride to the ER, I asked the EMT if she had had any chance to catch the news and knew if the Alabama Senate race results were in yet. She wasn't even aware there was a race and had no idea who Roy Moore is, but very kindly looked up the result on her phone and told me that they'd just called the race for Doug Jones.

Getting my knee set back into place was probably the most excruciating pain I've ever experienced. I'm not a superstitious person, but going with the Metafilter theme on this, I'd happily do this again every election if that's what it takes to save the republic.
posted by biogeo at 9:32 AM on December 13, 2017 [131 favorites]


Yes, the white working class broke towards Trump -- as did a bunch of other constituencies -- but where are the breathless articles wondering WTF is up with the college-educated racist misogynists who wear suits and work in accounting and want to send their kids to Rutgers? Why is that the racism we don't talk about?

The assumption made by pollsters and the media alike was that less educated people were working class. That wasn't entirely the case, and it skewed the numbers. It's still skewing media coverage of Republicans across the country.

Education was the biggest determining factor in Trump's "win."
In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.

Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.

Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).

...
Due largely to the dramatic movement among whites with no college degree, the gap between college and non-college whites is wider in 2016 than in any past election dating to 1980.

posted by zarq at 9:33 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


November 2016 I took my young daughter to vote for the first female US president. She was excited! And then of course very disappointed the next morning.

Over the past year she has seen my frustration with the current US government grow. When I learned about the postcard project, I thought it would be a great way for me to feel like I was doing something tangible to maybe make an individual difference. My young daughter was so happy to help me with the postcards. She drew such heart-felt art on the front of each one...85 postcards for Doug Jones! We really bonded over the project. We talked about a bad guy who hurt girls and a good guy who stood up for young girls and how we were trying to help get the good guy elected. It was a hard and complicated topic to talk about, but I thought it was important.

Last evening we finished up our batch of postcards for Jose Vazquez running for State Representative in Florida, and I reminded her that the election for Doug Jones was ending after she went to bed. Wow, was it an amazing feeling to be able to tell her this morning that he won. She was elated!
posted by rabidsegue at 9:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [104 favorites]


Jeff Yang compiles and shares on Twitter a list of black women currently running for office.
posted by palindromic at 9:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [17 favorites]


More seriously, if black women are the backbone of the Democratic party, then by rights there should be more black women in office. Not because of some "quota," but because those who are doing the hard work ought to be reaping some reward. Maybe that's something that the bench-building wing of the Democratic party can look at.

Agree, strongly, and not just because they deserve a reward. They're doing the hard work effectively, and so should be leading us.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [22 favorites]


Well, DNC got something right. Keep it up.

@WaPoSean
DNC Chair Tom Perez says all of the $1M the cmte spent on Alabama went toward African American and millennial turnout.
posted by chris24 at 9:36 AM on December 13, 2017 [85 favorites]


Regarding economic anxiety, there's two types:
  • the kind associated with the WWC and Trump voters, e.g., living paycheck to paycheck, worrying about retirement, etc.
  • the kind associated with people who are actually well-off, but got their money through a fluke like, say, a real estate boom or through inheritance, and know they couldn't replace it because they lack the necessary skills or conditions.
    So if I lost everything, it would suck but I'm confident I could rebuild, but my mother lived terrified of winding up in the gutter because she had nothing to do with creating the wealth that should have made her feel comfortable. If anything happened, she knew she couldn't recreate it and would be dependent on social security/her children.

  • posted by carmicha at 9:39 AM on December 13, 2017 [7 favorites]


    @frankthorp
    CORKER says Doug Jones winning last night was “A great night for America...”

    @kylegriffin1
    Bob Corker on the Alabama Senate race: "I’m really, really happy with what happened for all of us in our nation."

    Tessessean: Sen. Bob Corker 'really, really happy' that Democrat Doug Jones won Alabama Senate race
    “I know we’re supposed to cheer for our side of the aisle, if you will," the Chattanooga Republican told reporters, "but I’m really, really happy with what happened for all of us in our nation, for people serving in the Senate, to not have to deal with what we were likely going to have to deal with should the outcome have been the other way."
    posted by chris24 at 9:40 AM on December 13, 2017 [27 favorites]


    Not to abuse the edit window, but I left out a third type of economic anxiety: never getting launched due to student loans, high real estate costs, etc.
    posted by carmicha at 9:40 AM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    We also need to not sell our soul to win as well. There may be areas where the only way to win is to repudiate what we believe in - and in those cases, the answer is, sadly, that we do have to write them off.

    It depends on what you mean by "write them off." Until a few months ago, Alabama was one of those areas, and I certainly wouldn't have agreed with Jones dropping his pro-choice and anti-racism stances to try and win over wavering Moore voters -- not least because it wouldn't have worked (if voters are choosing based on issues, GOP always beats GOP-lite). But when the revelation that Moore is a sex predator cut his electoral legs off, there was a Democratic campaign and allied grassroots groups ready to take advantage. That's what we need to have in every state -- an operation that can kick into gear when lightning strikes and having a (D) next to a candidate's name suddenly stops being a kiss of death. It's expensive to do that in 50 states and 435 House districts, but at the same time, there are 50 states and 435 House districts. Lightning's gonna strike somewhere sooner or later.
    posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:41 AM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    One thing I found a little concerning in the exit polls was that the 18-24 age group favoured Jones a little less than the 25-39 age group did. Poll weirdness, or tiny sign of worry for the future?
    posted by clawsoon at 9:42 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


    rabidsegue, your story made it a bit dusty here, in a happy way here. You guys go! And thank you.
    posted by maxwelton at 9:43 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    clawsoon, My kneejerk reaction is that 18-20-year-olds are more likely to share their parents' politics out of sheer inertia, while the group that's entirely beyond college age will have had the time to form their own opinions.
    posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:44 AM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    One thing I found a little concerning in the exit polls was that the 18-24 age group favoured Jones a little less than the 25-39 age group did. Poll weirdness, or tiny sign of worry for the future?

    Maybe because more people that age are still operating within their parents' sphere of influence, especially if they haven't yet left home.
    posted by carmicha at 9:45 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    Huckabee: God wasn’t registered to vote in AL...

    God is an African American without an ID?
    posted by JackFlash at 9:46 AM on December 13, 2017 [25 favorites]




    zarq: "Education was the biggest determining factor in Trump's "win." "

    I mentioned this over in the main thread - one consequence of that is that low education people have lower turnout in non-presidential elections. This obviously would have a lot of impact on midterm and off-year races.
    posted by Chrysostom at 9:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


    "We also need to not sell our soul to win as well."

    And I'm not suggesting we should. But "White working class" means a lot of different things in a lot of different places, and a good 50% of the argument here is people in places where it's a reliable Democratic constituency and good ally to other Democratic constituencies and people in places where it's a solid super-conservative Republican constituency full of white supremacists and male supremacists arguing right past each other.

    If you're campaigning in a place where WWC voters hate minorities, belong to evangelical churches, and vote overwhelmingly Republican, no, that is probably a waste of campaign cash beyond the most cursory outreach that says "I know you exist and hear your [legitimate] concerns." (not engaging with the illegitimate ones). But if you're campaigning in a place where there are still strong industrial unions that do a lot of voter mobilization, unions that are reliable Democratic campaigners and have minority outreach coordinators, where your WWC is a lot more Catholic and mainline Protestant, where your construction foreman pride themselves on their spoken Spanish that was a hardwon adult achievement so they could hire from a more diverse talent pool and who list their team's languages on their construction bids, it's fuckin' dumb to reject those voters on the basis that in an entirely different part of the country, the WWC has different demographic and voting characteristics.

    Which is why we HAVE to have the local knowledge to know who our constituencies are and not let a national media conversation about Hillbilly Elegy drive campaign strategy in Oregon. It's a big, diverse country, and we need a big, diverse bench and a big diversity of strategies!

    Just speaking from prior campaign experience, I saw the Jones campaign outreach in minority areas and the work by the NAACP in Alabama and some of what they did was "unorthodox" by high-level campaign advisor strategies, but it was smart smart smart for driving urban turnout. And part of what was great was, the local people took the data from the national experts and saw where they weren't getting turnout; and the national experts listened to the local people about where to put the money to drive that local turnout. It was a great example of letting different kinds of knowledge and expertise cross-pollinate. The Doug Jones ads they were placing at, like, mini-marts? Instead of on freeway billboards? No campaign strategist would suggest that, there's not enough "traffic" seeing them. But national data folks saw where turnout was low and could be increased, and local experts said "Here is where you need to put an ad to reach that group, this specific mini-mart," and the money folks complied.

    We don't need endless rounds of "Court the WWC"/"Don't court the WWC." We need more of this kind of smart collaboration that marries national-level data and campaign expertise (and money) with local conditions and local knowledge. We don't need a national "the WWC are/aren't worth pursuing" conversation, really. We need a whole ton of conversations that say, "Hey, Greensboro, data suggests you've got some POC voters who aren't turning out, what can we do to drive turnout?" and "Hey, Des Moines, we see some persuadable WWC voters who haven't voted in the last two elections and strongly disapprove of Trump, many of whom voted for Obama in the 2008 primaries, is this a place where we can pick up voters?" and "Hey, Orlando, how's it coming on getting all those Puerto Rican migrants registered and what resources do you need to get every last eligible voter among them registered and voting?"
    posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:57 AM on December 13, 2017 [106 favorites]


    Candidates Matter... But Only By A Bit

    I think the Dem victory here is contingent on a number of factors. Jones was a good candidate and ran a good campaign. That wasn't SUFFICIENT for him to win, but it was REQUIRED for him to win.
    posted by Chrysostom at 9:58 AM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


    Thank you, Alabama. You saved 2017.
    posted by Captain l'escalier at 10:05 AM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    I remember reading something about education and politics - college tends to be where everyone meets people who are not like them and encounters material about people with concerns different from their own. Some people grow up in diverse areas, some people have access to diverse high schools; some people go to college and basically never make any friends who are not like themselves; but everyone who goes to college gets at least some exposure to difference. It's not so much "college voters are smarter, ha ha", it's that in a very stratified society going to college is one of the few ways that people can encounter difference.

    This chimes with another article I read recently about how the most prejudiced places are places where there's both proximity and segregation - like a city that is very "integrated" if you consider the whole metro area, but where neighborhoods and social institutions are intensely segregated. Places where people mix more are less prejudiced, but perversely places where no one mixes are also somewhat less prejudiced.

    I am also reminded of some really good comment here on metafilter that I should have bookmarked, where someone was talking about growing up Evangelical, and how TV shows with positive depictions of gay characters had the perverse effect of strengthening homophobia in her social world - she didn't actually know any out gay people, and what she took from positive television depictions was "everyone out there in the sinful world LOVES gay people and thinks they are SO wonderful, so everyone who says that there is discrimination is LYING".

    I think these two things together account for a lot of the white-people-of-all-economic-strata-without-degrees effect.

    There are positive emotional rewards to prejudice and obvious material rewards to discrimination - my point isn't that racists and other bigots are merely misguided. But honestly, I know a LOT of college-educated people, and I don't think that their relative anti-Trumpiness and relative opposition to white supremacy are necessarily because they are all super-thoughtful geniuses who are extremely loving and moral. College (or just not living in a super homogeneous area, probably) changes people's politics for the better because knowing people who are not like you and being forced to take at least some of their interests into account changes you.
    posted by Frowner at 10:07 AM on December 13, 2017 [24 favorites]


    God is an African American without an ID?

    If Jesus came back, that's how I'd expect him to come.
    posted by clawsoon at 10:10 AM on December 13, 2017 [39 favorites]


    My kneejerk reaction is that 18-20-year-olds are more likely to share their parents' politics out of sheer inertia, while the group that's entirely beyond college age will have had the time to form their own opinions.

    This sounds plausible to me. I turned 18 in October of 1992 and was thus able to vote in my first ever presidential election just a few weeks later. I voted for Bill Clinton, but if I had turned 18 one year earlier, I likely would have voted Republican, due mainly to the strong influence of my father's political leanings.

    *shudders*

    Thankfully I emerged from my ideological cocoon just in the nick of time and have therefore never voted for a single Republican at any level in any election.
    posted by Atom Eyes at 10:11 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    God is an African American without an ID?

    Yeah, and I think She's getting a little salty about all the crap going on in Her name
    posted by nubs at 10:12 AM on December 13, 2017 [21 favorites]


    where your WWC is a lot more Catholic and mainline Protestant

    Mainline Protestants and White Catholics voted for Trump in 2016 by large margins.

    Protestants: Trump 58% to Clinton 39%
    White Catholics: Trump 60% to Clinton 37%.

    That's over a 20% margin for both groups. Exception: Hispanic Catholics 67% of whom voted for Clinton and 26% for Trump. Articles that note that Catholics went for Clinton in 2016 are careful to point out that it wasn't White Catholics but Latinos. The Catholic vote was split down racial lines.

    I wouldn't bet on either White Catholics or mainstream Protestants to be reliable supporters of Democratic policies.
    posted by zarq at 10:19 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]




    I've been depressingly ineffective since last November. Jones' win and this thread zapped me into action. Thanks and hugs to you all. I don't have a lot of free time, but I can join the NAACP and Postcards to Voters. And I just did, in honor of everyone who volunteered for Doug Jones, and with two flying middle fingers at his human shit stain opposition. Excelsior, fuckers.
    posted by Orange Dinosaur Slide at 10:23 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


    Leonardo Carella [via Twitter]:
    If yesterday's Alabama Senate race had been a House election, the Republicans, who got *fewer* votes, would have won 6 out of 7 seats, and the Democrats, who *won* the vote statewide, only 1 out of 7. That's how gerrymandered Alabama is.
    posted by Atom Eyes at 10:21 AM on December 13 [10 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]


    Those long fingers extending from district 7 clearly are meant to make 1, 2 and 6 red.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 10:33 AM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    That's over a 20% margin for both groups.

    Correcting myself here: Actually that's not over 20% for both groups. It's 19% for Protestants. 23% for White Catholics.
    posted by zarq at 10:34 AM on December 13, 2017


    Mississippi's population is 37.6% Black (compared to ~30% in Alabama), and that percentage is growing as more Black folks move south to retire. Latinos represent 2-4% of the population.

    Imagine what would happen if those groups turn out in 2018 like they did today.
    posted by leotrotsky at 10:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


    "I wouldn't bet on either White Catholics or mainstream Protestants to be reliable supporters of Democratic policies."

    Zarq, I feel like you missed the entire point of my comment in your eagerness to rebut it -- my point is that WHAT DOES YOUR LOCAL AREA look like? I didn't say "all Catholics in America" or even "WWC Catholics." I was talking about LOCAL groups and LOCAL knowledge, where perhaps -- as in Peoria -- your white working class is heavily unionized and typically ethnically Irish Catholic or German Lutheran (with a hefty dose of Maronite Lebanese, but they don't appear in exit polls, they're counted as "white Catholic"), and break heavily for Democrats. I KNOW where the white Catholic Trump voters in Peoria County are, and it ain't in the unions or on the shop floors; it's in the white-flight suburbs commuting to work in the executive suites at Cat.

    White Catholic voters in Boston are hella different than white Catholic voters in Lincoln, Nebraska, your national surveys notwithstanding. Deciding to write off Catholic voters nationwide, as you are apparently suggesting, because a homogenized national survey shows they broke for Trump is a dumb and losing strategy. The whole point of my comment is we need local knowledge and local campaigns that respond to local conditions, that know what their local communities are like and where the allies are. If you would like to take every race where someone says, "We can increase POC turnout in this area!" or "Catholics here are strong Democrats" or "We can get the WWC on board here" or "Soccer moms are definitely breaking for Hillary here" and say, "No, national surveys say they're a bad constituency for Democrats," you're going to lose every election.

    This is the second time in the thread you haven't read what you're responding to.
    posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:34 AM on December 13, 2017 [48 favorites]


    Mississippi's population is 37.6% Black (compared to ~30% in Alabama)

    Louisiana also has a higher percentage of black voters than Alabama, 32%. Turning out the black vote and getting 35% of the white vote is a pretty good recipe for winning statewide races in southern states.

    If you assume a 30% black electorate at 90% D (Alabama was 30% and 96%) you get 27% of the vote. The 70% white electorate at 35% D gets you 24.5% of the vote. Voila! 51.5% and a D senator.
    posted by chris24 at 10:52 AM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


    Also, Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
    posted by Chrysostom at 10:53 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    Turning out the black vote and getting 35% of the white vote is a pretty good recipe for winning statewide races in southern states.

    And the best way to get more of the White vote is turning out Millennials, because they're the ones that vote Democratic.

    An added benefit is you're ingraining behaviors, training the younger generation that voting is REALLY REALLY important, which will pay dividends long into the future.
    posted by leotrotsky at 10:55 AM on December 13, 2017 [26 favorites]


    Speaking of Texas, told the husband last night this election reminded me of the victory of Ann Richards over Clayton Williams:

    In one of his widely publicized missteps, Williams refused to shake hands with Ann Richards in a public debate, an act seen as uncouth. Earlier, Williams made an infamous joke to reporters, likening bad weather to rape, having quipped: "If it's inevitable, just relax and enjoy it". In addition, it has been claimed that as an undergraduate at Texas A&M, he had participated in visits to the Chicken Ranch, a well-known Texas brothel in La Grange, and the Boy's Towns of Mexico.

    Ted Cruz is less likely to put his cowboy boot in his mouth in exactly this way so I don't expect that kind of a repeat, but the fact that he was okey-dokey with the Senate seating a guy who preyed on teenagers is certainly a useful fact to keep reminding voters about.
    posted by emjaybee at 10:59 AM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Ramez Naam:
    1. I see a number of comments online today hating on white voters as a class, and particularly white women overall, because a majority of whites in Alabama voted for Roy Moore. I've seen similar things since Trump's victory. This disturbs me.
    2. A core liberal principle is that we treat people as individuals, and don't discriminate against them because of their membership in a group they were born into. "What's wrong with you, white women?" is an attack based on involuntary group membership, not individual choices.
    3. More disturbingly, anti-white messages (which I see primarily from whites) are a massive strategic and tactical blunder for liberals. They *drive white voters away from the left* rather than pulling them. Why do that? "Thank you principled Alabama voters" is far smarter.
    4. I am not, and will not, ever be okay with attacking someone based on their race or gender. That applies just as much to attacking whites as to the (obviously far far far worse) racial attacks on blacks. And on top of its moral failings, it's counter-productive politically.
    posted by gwint at 11:17 AM on December 13, 2017 [33 favorites]


    [Couple comments deleted. Again, not Bernie, not "what do you think of Bernie" or "what did Bernie say in 2016" or any of that. And let's back up from whatever exchange about which groups of white voters supported Trump wherever; again refocusing to look forward, in light of the Alabama election that just happened, go ahead and make your positive points that are forward looking.]
    posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:18 AM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    3. More disturbingly, anti-white messages (which I see primarily from whites) are a massive strategic and tactical blunder for liberals. They *drive white voters away from the left* rather than pulling them. Why do that? "Thank you principled Alabama voters" is far smarter.

    i am 100% guilty of this but there is a part of me that looks at stuff like last night's exit polls and just wants to run out in the street screaming "GODDAMNIT, WHITE PEOPLE, GET YOUR SHIT TOGETHER"

    i will cop to this being politically useless rage, but god damn
    posted by murphy slaw at 11:33 AM on December 13, 2017 [28 favorites]


    "What's wrong with you, white women?" is an attack based on involuntary group membership, not individual choices.

    No, this is bullshit. Nobody's attacking white women because they're white. White female voters in Alabama who voted for Moore are being excoriated, though, because they each made the individual choice to cast their ballot for a child molester who thinks women shouldn't hold office, have the right to vote, or do anything but be barefoot and pregnant from about age 14 onward.
    posted by palomar at 11:36 AM on December 13, 2017 [37 favorites]


    Most young white women didn't
    Most white women with kids didn't
    Most white women who identify as Democrats didn't

    But according to you they did.
    posted by gwint at 11:43 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    If you're talking to me, gwint, maybe try rereading my comment. I'll pull the salient part out for you:

    White female voters in Alabama who voted for Moore
    posted by palomar at 11:45 AM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    The ray of hope in those race/gender breakdowns is that when you factor religion into the mix, white non-evangelical women broke 73/25 for Jones.
    posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:46 AM on December 13, 2017 [32 favorites]


    Riding what they are increasingly convinced could be a blue tsunami powered by millennials, furious women and minority voters,

    As a furious minority millenial woman, I am indeed a blue fucking TSUNAMI OF POLITICAL FUCK YOU.

    I worked a 13 hour day yesterday, and in the cab home, we got stuck on the on-ramp to the interstate -- like, cars ahead, cars behind, literally maybe six inches of movement in ten minutes due to road work. And I couldn't stop checking the Metafilter thread on my phone, so I got incredibly car sick, to the point that when I did get home, my husband opened the door and whisper-yelled THE AP JUST CALLED IT and I whisper-yelled THE AP JUST CALLED IT, hung up my coat, and sprinted to the bathroom to throw up.

    STILL WORTH BEING IN THE THREAD WHEN JONES WON.

    (Later in the night, my husband and I engaged in highly pleasurable fanfic about some situation in the next year or whatever where Pat Toomey's seat would come up for election in 2018, and we could vote to fill it with a Democrat instead of having to wait until 2022.)
    posted by joyceanmachine at 11:47 AM on December 13, 2017 [36 favorites]


    3. More disturbingly, anti-white messages (which I see primarily from whites) are a massive strategic and tactical blunder for liberals. They *drive white voters away from the left* rather than pulling them. Why do that? "Thank you principled Alabama voters" is far smarter.

    How many times do we have to litigate the "OMG you can't say that demonstrably true, slightly uncomfortable thing! It'll drive away swing voters!" question here? We've been there. We've tried it. Hilary ran a campaign based on "don't drive away the delicate white voters in Ohio by pointing out that the GOP candidate is actually three toddlers stacked under a trenchcoat," and it got her nowhere. The entire takeaway from the last 24 hours is that we don't have to pander to white liberals any more. That is not the way elections are going to be decided, either in the 2018 midterms or as the country gets more and more diverse. Anyone who is capable of being driven away from the party of grownups and into the party of coprophagic toddlers, based solely on demographic statements like "white people in Alabama kind of suck," is not someone whose vote is worth pursuing. The effort required to keep that hypothetical delicate snowflake would be better spent driving ten other voters without cars to the polls. Meanwhile, I think the collective egos of white Americans can handle the odd microaggression like this.

    I'm a white guy, and I approve the message that white people need to do better.
    posted by Mayor West at 11:47 AM on December 13, 2017 [52 favorites]


    White female voters in Alabama who voted for Moore
    posted by palomar at 11:45 AM on December 13 [+] [!]


    The problem is people who voted for Moore, not [X] people who voted for Moore. The [X] is a nuisance variable.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 11:48 AM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Graggh, the injustice that Jones won't be able to vote on the tax bill. How beautiful that would have been.

    Guess we'll just have to repeal it the old-fashioned way.
    posted by saturday_morning at 11:49 AM on December 13, 2017


    I think part of the issue is that using "white women" as a single metric, when voting patterns vary vastly if you include age, religious conviction, etc. means that the single metric on its own has little value.
    posted by gwint at 11:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    The problem is people who voted for Moore, not [X] people who voted for Moore. The [X] is a nuisance variable.

    I'm a woman, and I'm here to tell you that women voting for Moore is a fucking problem. It's a complex problem, but the gender part is not a nuisance variable.
    posted by FelliniBlank at 11:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [40 favorites]


    Mayor West: "The effort required to keep that hypothetical delicate snowflake would be better spent driving ten other voters without cars to the polls. Meanwhile, I think the collective egos of white Americans can handle the odd microaggression like this."

    I believe that the argument is not "We should keep the white people happy," so much as "Disinclusive and stereotyped messages are wrong and we should do better." Like, if you want to be the party of tearing down divisions, making hating white people a standard part of your belief system is a problem. Now, the odd person doing it is whatever, but it's important it doesn't become de rigeur.
    posted by TypographicalError at 11:51 AM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    White female voter in Alabama here. I volunteered for the Jones campaign, knocking on doors, calling, etc. I admit to getting a little defensive seeing "What's wrong with you, white women?" instead of "What's wrong with you, white women WHO VOTED FOR ROY MOORE", but meh, I get that that's kind of implied. Unfortunately, the Monday-morning quarterbacking of demographics-based voting is really missing the story. I am in the county that had the largest % flip for Jones over the Trump vote. In the cities, in predominantly African-American areas, around the universities, and in areas with high concentrations of PhDs/biotech industry, it flipped big time. Yes, you can average % from one ultra-red county with others and drag down the results, but it will be very important for Democrats in 2018 and beyond to get much more granular and surgically strategic in the future. 65% of white women (for example) may have voted for Moore (*spits*), but understanding where it was 95% and where it was 35% is REALLY. FUCKING. IMPORTANT. I have never seen so much enthusiasm, exhaustive hard work, and organization as I have seen in the last 3 months here. Proud to have been a part of it, even if I'm a somewhat reluctant and non-native Alabamian.
    posted by SinAesthetic at 11:52 AM on December 13, 2017 [87 favorites]


    (Later in the night, my husband and I engaged in highly pleasurable fanfic about some situation in the next year or whatever where Pat Toomey's seat would come up for election in 2018, and we could vote to fill it with a Democrat instead of having to wait until 2022.)

    joyceanmachine: I spend far too much time thinking about this exact thing. I particularly enjoy imagining Toomey quitting in disgrace, perhaps because it comes out that the election was rigged.
    posted by mcduff at 11:54 AM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    Trump: Some Republicans ‘Happy’ We Lost The Alabama Senate Seat
    President Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon lamented that some Republicans were “happy” that Republican Roy Moore, who faced several sexual misconduct allegations, lost the Alabama Senate race.

    “We wish we would have gotten the seat. A lot of Republicans feel differently. They’re very happy with the way it turned out,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “But I would have — as the leader of the party, I would have liked to have had the seat. I want to endorse the people that are running.”
    (emphasis mine) if it keeps working out the way it has so far, i want you to endorse them too, mister president
    posted by murphy slaw at 11:55 AM on December 13, 2017 [18 favorites]


    I'm a white guy, and I approve the message that white people need to do better.

    I mean really, what we saw last night was the bare minimum of white people stepping up to help POC. Almost didn't happen.
    posted by rhizome at 11:57 AM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    as the leader of the party

    Sure you are
    .
    posted by elsietheeel at 12:02 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    MetaFilter: we don't have to pander to white liberals any more.
    posted by Burhanistan at 12:04 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Any fellow white person who gets their dander up at hearing "white people, do better" because SEVENTY PERCENT of our brethren are voting to elect pedophiles? They're (a) in the 70% and (2) never leaving it.
    posted by phearlez at 12:10 PM on December 13, 2017 [40 favorites]


    Also, let's be clear that the original comment here was reacting to Twitter, which is not so much telling people to do better as much as being a howling Id demanding blood. The content of this thread itself is barely problematic if at all*.

    * imho
    posted by TypographicalError at 12:17 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    So I was telling an acquaintance this morning about the ludicrous attempt at defending Moore's character by his Vietnam buddy Bill Staehle explaining how when they "accidentally" ended up in a brothel full of child prostitutes, they left right away (mentioned in the OP, alt video link) but apparently, despite having been a military police officer who just saw a room full of child prostitutes, Moore didn't do anything about it. (Presumably if he had done something about it, the character witness anecdote would have been about that.)

    My (former military) acquaintance proposed that perhaps prostitution was legal in that host country, and so there would have been nothing Moore could've done about it. But a few minutes of Googling confirmed than not only was prostitution illegal in the Republic of Vietnam,
    ...the 1962 law for the protection of morality prohibited abortion, sorcery, animal fights, smoking by persons under age eighteen, prostitution, which was defined as "voluptuous activities," dancing, and beauty contests. Article 4 stated, "Dancing at any place is forbidden. All various styles of dance which are harmful to the good customs and nice traditions, and all beauty contests are banned."
    and this I found in a book about the legal system of the RVN / South Vietnam entitled Vietnam Studies: Law at War: Vietnam 1964-1973 by a George S. Prugh (PDF link) published, of all things, by the U.S. Army in 1975.
    posted by XMLicious at 12:26 PM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


    SEVENTY PERCENT of our brethren are voting to elect pedophiles? They're (a) in the 70% and (2) never leaving it.

    Yes, but it was 70% of the voting population. A big reason for the win is that GOP turnout was down--in part, I think we can safely assume, because many white people just could not bring themselves to vote for the pedophile, but also couldn't bring themselves to vote for the Democrat.

    I'm not saying it's not bad! It's just not quite as bad as the vote breakdown makes it look.
    posted by suelac at 12:28 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    It's expensive to do that in 50 states and 435 House districts, but at the same time, there are 50 states and 435 House districts.

    And it's not necessary to do "prep for blue takeover attempt" in all 50 states and 435 House districts. I'm in deep blue zone California; nobody needs to waste "get a good Rep into congress" resources on us; instead, we're a resource pool for postcards and calls and sometimes funding for other places.

    It's got to annoy the hell out of Republicans that Democrats have this huge pool of supporters from wealthy areas. Expect to see them scream about cross-state cheating soon. (I know they occasionally make noises about out-of-state donations, but the sheer hypocrisy usually keeps that from getting too much traction.) The cluelessness is breathtaking - it's like they can't connect the dots between "high-tech, high standard of living, willingness to help strangers living half a continent away" with "multicultural neighborhood, progressive politics."
    posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:29 PM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


    I think we can safely assume, because many white people just could not bring themselves to vote for the pedophile, but also couldn't bring themselves to vote for the Democrat.

    I'm not saying it's not bad! It's just not quite as bad as the vote breakdown makes it look.


    These days, I give zero fucks for anyone who can't bring themselves to vote for a skilled, honorable candidate because they have a religious commitment to slut-shaming, which is the core of the anti-choice platform.
    posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:34 PM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    Democrats are a coalition party. X% this, Y% that, put it all together and if you're lucky, you get a majority. Alabama may have voted 63% for Trump, but we can't ignore that 37%. Whites may have voted 58% for Trump, but we need that 42%. The Democratic Party cannot function as a coalition of only those demographics that are at least 50% anti-Trump -- any such coalition will lose every election, even in blue states. Nor is there any moral or strategic logic in blaming vast demographic groups like Alabamans, the South, the Midwest, Whites, white working class, etc. All of those groups have millions of individuals who are reliable Democratic voters, and trashing those groups is both a losing political strategy, and morally flawed inasmuch as it involves judging individuals by their (usually involuntary) group membership. Looking forward to 2018, just as the Democratic Party is a coalition of disparate, intersecting groups, so too must the platform and policies be coalitional: things that address the needs of people of color, things that address women, things that address the poor, things that address southerners. Blaming various groups is a losing strategy, but targeting policies that benefit various groups is a winner, the more the merrier. Democrats should be the party of AND, not OR.
    posted by chortly at 12:35 PM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


    Nor is there any moral or strategic logic in blaming vast demographic groups like Alabamans, the South, the Midwest, Whites, white working class, etc.

    How about assholes? Can we write off the asshole vote?
    posted by Faint of Butt at 12:40 PM on December 13, 2017 [9 favorites]


    Democrats should be the party of AND, not OR.

    This this this. Dems need to be the party of, "it's awesome if someone else is getting a good deal, as long as it's not hurting me," and point out that the R's are the party of "I don't care how much our people get hurt as long as Those People are suffering."
    posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:43 PM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    I'm a woman, and I'm here to tell you that women voting for Moore is a fucking problem. It's a complex problem, but the gender part is not a nuisance variable

    Yeah but I have noticed this thing where it’s invariably white women who get attacked, even though their position in fucking Alabama is, as you say, complicated. But this is true in general — there’s a sort of glee and enthusiasm in attacking white women for being shitty, or, just as frequently, for not doing enough, the right way. And those criticisms are accurate, sure. But the context is that no one goes after white men the same way. That no one acknowledges that a white woman’s choices in a white male supremacist patriarchy are going to be complicated by vulnerability in a way that a white man’s are not.

    And yet it’s white women who catch the most creative and vitriolic Twitter invective. Even when, as white people go, white women are the ones who are showing up to resist and support progressive candidates. Even though it’s white women, as white people go, who are the most persuadable.

    It’s just always easier to beat up on women, even if they’re not the ones who wield most of the power. Funny how that works, huh.

    And again, just so I don’t get flamed: I’m not saying we should let white women off the hook. I’m saying the double standard is another manifestation of misogyny, and it’s fucked up.
    posted by schadenfrau at 12:45 PM on December 13, 2017 [42 favorites]


    And also this thread was a delight to read and I love you all for it.
    posted by schadenfrau at 12:47 PM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    I keep seeing ads for The Last Jedi, but this feels more like A New Hope to me.
    posted by DevilsAdvocate at 12:47 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    I saw the posts pointing out that the majority of white women voted for Trump from mainly women of color on my Twitter feed who were getting fed up with the pussy hats patting themselves on the back more so than opportunistic misogyny. At least that's the genesis of it.
    posted by Space Coyote at 12:49 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    Democrats should be the party of AND, not OR.

    I picture America as a slider bar, like a bass/treble knob on a stereo. It's labeled GOVERNMENT.

    If you move it right, that side is labeled "I". What do I get? What gives me more of what I want? What privileges can I obtain?

    If you move it left, that side is labeled "WE." How can we make lives better? What can we do that will benefit the most people? How can we make government and society work from the bottom up?

    The trick is convincing many of the Is that I is part of WE, that I benefits when WE benefits, and that it's not against God's will for others in WE to be happy.
    posted by delfin at 12:51 PM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


    The trick is convincing many of the Is that I is part of WE, that I benefits when WE benefits, and that it's not against God's will for others in WE to be happy.

    I do think this dovetails with part of the conversation earlier: while frustration is definitely DEFINITELY understandable, a regular drumbeat of 'white women people this is your fault you people did this' can undercut that messaging, depending on how it is phrased. (I understand that the 'those of you who voted for Trump/Moore/whomever is always meant to be implied, but it's not always heard.) This is not about mollifying white women people or giving them cookies just for existing, but a fair bit of the rhetoric has certainly been more calling-out than calling-in, and that doesn't exactly make it easy to argue for any sort of coming-together given the us-versus-you tone it strikes.
    posted by halation at 1:00 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    I saw the posts pointing out that the majority of white women voted for Trump from mainly women of color on my Twitter feed who were getting fed up with the pussy hats patting themselves on the back more so than opportunistic misogyny. At least that's the genesis of it.

    I mean, are you subtweeting me here? (I have no idea if I used that right. Maybe just are you being passive aggressive?) If you have something to say, just say it.

    This isn’t a thing limited to this election, or to 2016, or even to Twitter. It’s somethint I’ve noticed across lefty media. I’m also not sure what your post is suggesting — white women who are doing the work to support social justice should...what? I have no idea. The reductress article you linked is kind of straw-manny to me, but maybe that’s because I don’t spend a lot of time on Twitter. And I know there are white feminists who manage to completely fail at intersectionality (or who are just low key or outright racist). But again there’s no mention of white men. It’s the double standard that really sticks out at me. White women catch the flack for the shittiness of all white people. It’s weird.

    And I think it’s because it’s just easier to beat up on women. Misogyny isn’t limited to the right, or to men, as we all fucking learned the hard way in 2016.

    Or are you suggesting this is the one place where intersecionality doesn’t matter?
    posted by schadenfrau at 1:03 PM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


    I have noticed this thing where it’s invariably white women who get attacked

    It is (other) white women's support of these kleptocratic perverts that we (I) have the most trouble understanding. White men, at least, can be understood as acting in their own self-interests: the worst of the R's will be working very, very hard to make sure white men can't be accountable for their wrongful actions, and that they get first cut of all the goodies that come out of being in charge.

    White women are relegated to object status, their bodies declared as having the primary purpose of producing more white men, and the secondary purpose of pleasing the existing white men.

    So their votes make no sense. (Our votes, I should say, although I'm not part of this particular group of white women.) And while there is indeed a lot of misogyny in the attacks on white women following conservative elections, removing the misogyny would still leave us with a strong, "wtf were you thinking?" message.
    posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:06 PM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


    Their votes make sense if you remember that they're racist.

    Can we stop recentering on white people now?
    posted by elsietheeel at 1:09 PM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Please don't do some #NotAllWhiteWomen thing here.
    posted by gingerbeer at 1:16 PM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


    Schadenfrau - point definitely taken, and I share your frustration with white women more than white men being targeted for call-outs. And while it's one thing for women of color to call out white women, or other white women ditto, when MEN call out women it makes me stabby. No, Woke White Guy, having a penis doesn't make you more superior and woke than those ebil makeup-wearing wimminz.

    I feel like, as a white woman, it's my job to do the calling-out and telling my fellow white women to stop their damn Serena Joy-ing. I am definitely going to think more about how internalized misogyny might affect this.

    Part of it is that I live in an area where just about all women are liberal, or at least Third Way, Democrats. Even with religious women, the mindset is totally different. Religion is considered more a private and personal choice, and everyone sees the benefits of what good government can do because California tries its best, and the Bay Area has plenty of money to keep things funded.

    I just plain do not get why a woman, who was a young girl once, and who might have daughters herself, would think that a candidate who molested teen girls (so that he was barred from the local mall and high school games! FFS!) and said women should not run for office, was a great candidate worthy of their vote. Margaret Atwood really was a genius in her creation of the character Serena Joy.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:16 PM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    Their votes make sense if you remember that they literally believe that Democrats enjoy killing babies. Imagine living in a world in which your vote could prevent millions of dead children. It could be argued that we kind of do, considering how Republicans feel about the social safety net, but we're talking literal Herodian massacre belief here. This is a long con and it has worked for several generations now.

    But yes, I don't want to keep centering this demographic.
    posted by Countess Elena at 1:19 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Some people respond to mistreatment and hardship by thinking No one else should ever have to suffer like this.

    Some respond by clinging to every little thing they can, wary of it being taken from them.

    Some respond by saying If I had to suffer through this, no one else should get a free ride.

    And some just don't know that there's any other way to be.
    posted by delfin at 1:20 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    Building on what a couple of people have said... I used to slice and dice data for newspapers' investigative stories, and what will drive you crazy is figuring out what variables are the significant ones. If I was still doing that work, sure, the breakdown of white women vs. black women would seem to be telling, at least on the first pass.

    But what if you throw in another factor -- say, evangelical status. Would that change the split, and you'd see that non-evangelical white women voted more like black women? Which variable drives the bus? If your exit poll's sample size is big enough, you can get there. But exit polling (which I actually did, in one long-ago election) tends not go into that level of detail - or if they do, then the number of cases in those subgroups is too small for making valid comparisons.

    For example, look at the Washington Post exit polling data here. You see a lot of variables -- race, gender, age, education level, liberal/conservative, abortion stance, believe allegations/don't believe, etc... But they only combine the variables in a couple of very standard ways -- gender and education, and race, gender and education (though in the last, they leave out non-white voters for some reason).

    That might be because the differences were insignificant, but note that evangelical status, seventh graph, seems to drive a voter's preference almost as much as race does. (Though they muck it up by comparing only white evangelicals with all non-evangelicals.) I'd *love* to see evangelical in a crosstab with gender or race.

    TL, DR: I don't think the exit polling, as reported so far, tells us what really makes a Moore voter. Somebody, hopefully somebody much smarter than I am, eventually will do the definitive survey and analysis of this. (I'd love to see a linear regression, but again, those are only as good as the data and assumptions that go into the model.) My guess is you'd see a lot of variables are significant, with two or three the strongest.
    posted by martin q blank at 1:21 PM on December 13, 2017 [17 favorites]


    Just remember that income level and gender are not necessarily proof against being a fucking moron. That goes double for people who use their gender and income level to eschew things like education and exposure to the larger world. I’m not saying “too broke to go to college” is the only cause, either, but also people who are otherwise well-to-do and who use prosperity doctrine to reinforce the ideology that women shouldn’t be educated or in the workforce, or that college in general is bad, or whatever other bullshit people do to justify believing patently false principles.
    posted by Autumnheart at 1:25 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    And I think it’s because it’s just easier to beat up on women. Misogyny isn’t limited to the right, or to men, as we all fucking learned the hard way in 2016.

    Speaking only for me. After thinking on it. I find myself getting much more upset and irked at white woman not because it's easier but because of higher expectations. It's almost as if I just know white men (generalized) are shitty and looking out for themselves and in general have lower expectations. Almost like why they do it is just obvious. Even though I know there are reasons and that internalized mysogyny is real and all of the warped power imbalances that comes with a patriarchal system it is still so very frustrating to see it happening.
    This is probably the same reasons that I get much, much more angry about a woman telling me that I'm a horrible and feminist then I do when a man does.

    I don't comment much about it because my intellectual understanding of what is going on does not always sit nicely with my emotional reaction. And I can fully admit that the frustration stems from a 'gah, they should know better' place.
    posted by Jalliah at 1:31 PM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


    I just plain do not get why a woman, who was a young girl once, and who might have daughters herself, would think that a candidate who molested teen girls (so that he was barred from the local mall and high school games! FFS!) and said women should not run for office, was a great candidate worthy of their vote. Margaret Atwood really was a genius in her creation of the character Serena Joy.

    Well, a lot of them are racist AF, but I also recall some analysis after 2016 (that I can’t find on my phone) that suggested that white women’s votes for white male supremacist candidates also had to do with protecting their precarious positions in that fucked up hierarchy. Which is not...better...but does seem like a more persuadable position than pure racism.

    Can we stop recentering on white people now?

    Centering white people’s pain is problematic (to say the fucking least), but centering white people when we’re talking about who’s a problem is just...accurate? It’s white people, and men, and especially white men, who are the problem. If we want to fix the problem we have to talk about how to get those groups to be less crazy and/or less evil. I can see where the distinction gets lost, but I think it’s actually an important one. And I also think those discussions often get jumbled together, which I think is not great. Like...white people are not shitty because they’re in pain; it makes no sense to treat one as the source of the other. So you can and should acknowledge and try to address the shittiness without centering white people’s complaints. But I think they often are conflated, because people are always looking for a reason to excuse the shittiness, which is...incorrect.

    Please don't do some #NotAllWhiteWomen thing here.

    Yeah, I’m really, really not. I said the criticisms of white women were accurate — and that the double standard in how white women and white men are treated is another manifestation of misogyny. Both things are true at the same time.

    Unless, again, you think this is the only place where an intersectional framework is irrelevant.
    posted by schadenfrau at 1:32 PM on December 13, 2017 [19 favorites]


    Speaking only for me. After thinking on it. I find myself getting much more upset and irked at white woman not because it's easier but because of higher expectations. It's almost as if I just know white men (generalized) are shitty and looking out for themselves and in general have lower expectations.

    This is true for me, too. And I’ve identified it (for myself) as coming from the same place that excuses all kinds of behavior in men that I judge the shit out of when it comes from a woman. It is a gross place that I actively dislike and I’m working on getting rid of, but it’s...there. I associate it with all the stuff we read about in the emotional labor threads, too.

    And maybe I should have mentioned that this is my own gut reaction, too — but it’s a bad reaction. I’m not immune to internalized misogyny, either, but I am trying to point it out.
    posted by schadenfrau at 1:37 PM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


    Just remember that income level and gender are not necessarily proof against being a fucking moron.

    Plus, "college-educated" doesn't mean the voter had good professors or good classes. It doesn't measure intelligence or willingness to engage with the world. A double major in political science and anthropology from Serious Gothic Campus shows up on the same "college-educated" voter demographic as a graduate of Bob Jones University.
    posted by Countess Elena at 1:37 PM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


    I think one of the problems we have due to our large brains, is we all have a touch of "Engineers' Disease" where it's our nature to find connections, and this "Wednesday Morning Analysis" is part-and-parcel being inquisitive primates.

    We try to find meaning. Sometimes, we try to hard. And I think the critique of voting groups is part of that.

    Just relax and enjoy the result, where People did not disappoint you and Did What's Right for a change.

    Also, EVERY demographic should be engaged. My personal goal is to reach out to the whole 55 registered voters ( all parties ) in my Ward/District, and get 100% voting at the polls. Don't over-analyze. Organize!
    posted by mikelieman at 1:40 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    White men, at least, can be understood as acting in their own self-interests

    No, they have been convinced that the self-destructive behaviors they engage in are their own self interests. There has always been a segment of the wealthy and powerful who recognize that you can get people to freely give up their money, freedom, and dignity if you convince them that they'll be better off than someone they look down on if they do. Misogyny, like racism, is part of their toolkit. They didn't create those tools, but they know how to wield them for their own benefit.

    Accepting that when white men vote based on racism and misogyny they are voting in their own self interests is accepting the narrative that the Trumps and the Moores of the world want us to believe. I refuse.
    posted by biogeo at 1:41 PM on December 13, 2017 [18 favorites]


    They really believe Jesus was white. So, y'know, there's room to grow.

    To be fair, they have top-tier football programs too, which, is . . a demographic?
    posted by petebest at 1:41 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    Suelac: A big reason for the win is that GOP turnout was down--in part, I think we can safely assume, because many white people just could not bring themselves to vote for the pedophile, but also couldn't bring themselves to vote for the Democrat.

    I'm not saying it's not bad! It's just not quite as bad as the vote breakdown makes it look.


    We need to work on this opening, if it's real: once people can be persuaded to act in a small way they're open to being turned around. The Republicans were very serious about insisting that their faithful vote for a child molestor: it was about proving their loyalty, not just about losing a seat.

    If Moore was a bridge too far (as it seems to have been for many Republicans) then it reflects badly on everybody that pushed his campaign and everybody that went along with it and (thank goodness!) the Pussygrabber-in-Chief who still can't let it go. Any voters who declined to endorse Moore should be encouraged to think of it as refusing to support the Republican Party generally, because that's what it is.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 1:47 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Here's that Al Giordano tweet thread from above [lightly edited for formatting]:
    Just spoke with a source in the Mobile (AL) County NAACP. Here are some things that are happening today on the ground in Alabama that did not happen in the 2016 election:

    The state NAACP instructed its local branches to call every registered voter in the state who did not vote in 2016. The Lower Alabama chapter made it through the entire list successfully. A dozen paid canvassers have been going door to door in the Mobile area all week. That did not happen in 2016. What was last year an ad hoc effort by “a group of friends” to offer rides to the polls is today more than a dozen organizations doing rides-to-the-polls with resources for drivers.

    Once the Jones campaign had money, it bought billboards in African-American neighborhoods with the election date and a quick blurb about Jones. This was not on highways but in places where one normally sees fast-food or cigarette ads.

    The Mobile NAACP crunched the numbers and showed local pastoral leadership that whatever they had done in recent years to turn out voters wasn’t working. The pastors then pushed for and got resources to do congregation-wide robo calls and voter reg tables at church events. At school alumni parties the local NAACP handed out several thousand flyers with election dates, registration deadlines, absentee deadlines, voter ID requirements. They also brought these paper reminders door to door in a canvass.

    Mobile is one of the redder counties in Alabama. Even larger efforts have done many of the same things in Montgomery, Huntsville, Birmingham and the so-called Black Belt since resources arrived in mid-November.

    Beyond the NAACP, there are many other black voter mobilization groups with boots on the ground in AL communities doing similar, extremely important work. One of them is The Ordinary People Society (TOPS). TOPS registered 5,000 in 22 jails and 10 prisons in the last two weeks! Note: These resources were provided by many of you. We raised $10,000+ here on Twitter in a single evening for the Jones campaign. Many others did the same with their networks. This thread shows how much of it was spent on field organizing. Nothing like these grassroots efforts happened in 2016 in Alabama. The people who have been doing them are feeling good today. They think they have a shot. And they’ll be working hard until polls close to make it so. These reports are also consistent with how the DNC spent money to win special elections in Virginia and other states. More money for field and GOTV. Less for TV ads. This is the @TomPerez era at work.
    posted by LobsterMitten at 1:49 PM on December 13, 2017 [96 favorites]



    This is true for me, too. And I’ve identified it (for myself) as coming from the same place that excuses all kinds of behavior in men that I judge the shit out of when it comes from a woman. It is a gross place that I actively dislike and I’m working on getting rid of, but it’s...there. I associate it with all the stuff we read about in the emotional labor threads, too.


    The difference for me is that I'm not excusing men's behaviour at all. They get judged and judged hard. It's recognized and filed where required. The anger and frustration is there because it's always there. It's just a different level of frustrational buzz. With woman it's a different type of judging because there is also a sense of betrayal, especially when it's about woman who do things that put them on side of absusers and all the other things they believe that involve my rights and wellbeing as a human being. Things that get right down to our senses of indentity and existence.

    I don't think that sense comes from a gross place.
    posted by Jalliah at 1:49 PM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


    For example, look at the Washington Post exit polling data here. You see a lot of variables -- race, gender, age, education level, liberal/conservative, abortion stance, believe allegations/don't believe, etc... But they only combine the variables in a couple of very standard ways -- gender and education, and race, gender and education (though in the last, they leave out non-white voters for some reason).

    I think one data point that is overlooked here is that out of the 1,344,406 ballots counted, roughly 30% were cast by white women. Of that number, 65% (about 262,159) voted for Moore. (Source for percentages is this chart, admittedly on Twitter)

    Census data tells us that there are about 1.85M voting age white women living in the state of Alabama.

    There is a big, big gulf between those two numbers.

    Now, elections are for sure won by those who show up, and black people -- and black women in particular -- showed up and won the damn thing. But I can't help but think the fact that some 86% of voting age white women who DID NOT show up at all is some kind of statement as well. Maybe they just don't vote. Maybe they didn't get surveyed. Or maybe, just maybe, while they couldn't bring themselves to cross party lines and vote for Jones, some of them couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for Moore.
    posted by anastasiav at 1:55 PM on December 13, 2017 [21 favorites]


    With woman it's a different type of judging because there is also a sense of betrayal

    Yeah, I feel that too. But that’s sort of what I mean? That the lower expectations for men is itself the problem, and that that translates into levels of frustration and anger that are still gendered.

    I don’t know, man, it’s complicated.

    Beyond the NAACP, there are many other black voter mobilization groups with boots on the ground in AL communities doing similar, extremely important work. One of them is The Ordinary People Society (TOPS). TOPS registered 5,000 in 22 jails and 10 prisons in the last two weeks!

    That whole thread is amazing, but this statistic blew my mind. This probably the most hopeful I’ve felt since November 8th.
    posted by schadenfrau at 1:59 PM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    I don't know. I think that there's a long and misogynist history of holding women to a higher standard because women should be better because they are women and therefore women not doing [thing] is not just bad like a man would be bad but actively a betrayal. This same logic is always used to blame members of all marginalized groups for not "being better" than their oppressors - think about when people are talking about fixing the Palestine situation, how casually a lot of non-Jewish people say, for instance, that it's especially bad when Israelis are aggressively nationalist because as Jews they should know what it is to be persecuted and should act better than non-Jews for this reason, which is pretty screwed up.

    I will admit that when I see white men chortling along with the "white women pussyhat lol" stuff, it really frosts me. I don't see a lot of equivalent "white men voters are bad" - white men just get lumped into the white vote. And I do feel like some of the language around calling out white women sort of seems to mix up "this is feminine and feminine things are gross" with "this is a racist gendered behavior because white women benefit from white supremacy".
    posted by Frowner at 2:00 PM on December 13, 2017 [36 favorites]


    Or maybe, just maybe, while they couldn't bring themselves to cross party lines and vote for Jones, some of them couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for Moore.

    Again I can’t find this on my phone, but I’m pretty sure I saw this in one of the MeFi threads: that the number one issue for those women was abortion. And, uh, not in the good way. Whether or not that’s accurate or even mostly-right, the right wing brainwashing on abortion seems like something we’re gonna have to deal with, eventually.
    posted by schadenfrau at 2:02 PM on December 13, 2017 [9 favorites]


    I also recall some analysis after 2016 (that I can’t find on my phone) that suggested that white women’s votes for white male supremacist candidates also had to do with protecting their precarious positions in that fucked up hierarchy.

    Schadenfrau - was it this Vox interview with Stephanie Coontz? It was just before, not after, the election, but I think it talks about much of what we are discussing here.
    Women who want to be protected in the private sphere or need to be protected in the private sphere tend to emphasize the need to protect and privilege women’s special capacities for nurturing. I think it’s a big factor in the debates over contraception and sexuality and abortion. The flip side of women having all these freedoms from male control, they believe, is that it actually threatens women’s entitlement to male protection.
    White women have been able to benefit from benevolent sexism in a way that black women (and many other women of color) have not, which, I think, influences voting patterns.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 2:09 PM on December 13, 2017 [19 favorites]


    Note: These resources were provided by many of you. We raised $10,000+ here on Twitter in a single evening for the Jones campaign. Many others did the same with their networks. This thread shows how much of it was spent on field organizing.
    This is a really important point. We all want lots of field organizing, and we all (me definitely included) get annoyed by fundraising emails. But field organizing is expensive, and the money has to come from somewhere. If you can afford to donate to organizing efforts or directly to candidates, that would be a great thing to do.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:15 PM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    I don't think that sense comes from a gross place

    I do, because it leads to a lot more policing of women’s behavior and rhetoric. “White woman feminism” may be derided, but white male misogyny is just considered acceptable. Expecting women to be better means they’re automatically treated with suspicion, in ways that (say) the “white male proletariat” isn’t.

    It’s really a shitty thing to do, especially since there’s been a long history of male supremacists wanting to pit race against gender in order to harm both.
    posted by steady-state strawberry at 2:15 PM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


    Here's that Al Giordano tweet thread from above [lightly edited for formatting]:

    It's interesting, yes, but that's the third time that's been added in the thread.
    posted by Chrysostom at 2:16 PM on December 13, 2017 [1 favorite]


    TL, DR: I don't think the exit polling, as reported so far, tells us what really makes a Moore voter. Somebody, hopefully somebody much smarter than I am, eventually will do the definitive survey and analysis of this. (I'd love to see a linear regression, but again, those are only as good as the data and assumptions that go into the model.) My guess is you'd see a lot of variables are significant, with two or three the strongest.

    As someone who occasionally teaches statistics, it pains me how little basic knowledge is assumed or conveyed in most media reports on voter behavior. Talking about group-level behavior (white women, white working class, soccer moms, etc) is just basic social science malpractice, and even looking at the more fine-grained exit poll info is deeply misleading. Newspapers and other media should really be reporting results from ordinary linear regressions that show the conditional effects of these different characteristics holding the others constant, so readers can actually understand the separate effects of income, eduction, whiteness, etc, independent of all the other things that are correlated with them. There are so many interesting overlaps and interactions between class, race, gender, education, etc, that it's a real shame that no one -- not even the Nates of the world -- seems to think that anyone -- even the increasing number of wonkish political junkies out there -- should be shown the results of the most basic tool of social science. It really impairs discourse, especially relative to what the statistically-trained strategists within the parties and interest groups are actually up to.
    posted by chortly at 2:17 PM on December 13, 2017 [29 favorites]


    I don't see a lot of equivalent "white men voters are bad" - white men just get lumped into the white vote.

    Honestly, in a lot of cases, I feel like I don't see it because the PoC excoriating the white women voters who went for Moore and his ilk sorta assume white men voters are bad?

    But given the voting patterns in the last few elections, I'm also not sure it's unfair to run with that assumption?
    posted by anem0ne at 2:18 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    ...the number one issue for those women was abortion.

    This. "THEY'RE KILLING BABEEEEEES!!!!"

    The inability of this tribe being unable to process the idea of other women controlling their own bodies in a realistic way, while at the same time excusing themselves and their kin, has led to this despicable result, men and women alike. However, the movement is fueled primarily by white women:
    Studies indicate that activists within the American anti-abortion movement are predominantly white and educated, with a majority of anti-abortion activism constituted by women.
    My own take is that, at root, rabid anti-abortion activists are primarily motivated by the idea that fetuses are innocent and that women who want to abort them are vile sluts who want to escape the wages of their sin. When they or their own make a mistake and become pregnant, it's good, god-fearing Christians choosing to correct the mistake. But everyone else aborting pregnancies is a nymphomaniac, probably not white, totally unconcerned about the fetus. These are the women who vote for Moore and others like him.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 2:21 PM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


    Honestly, in a lot of cases, I feel like I don't see it because the PoC excoriating the white women voters who went for Moore and his ilk sorta assume white men voters are bad?

    I have such mixed feelings about all of this. On the one hand, I think you're right, and I also think that a lot of people with marginalized identities do hold ourselves to higher standards - like, when queer people are racist or classist or misogynist or transphobic, part of me wants very much to say "this isn't right, we aren't like them, not being like them is what makes us us". I do think that people are coming to this at least in part from a "white men, always-already terrible" standpoint, and just talking about white women voters is indicating that white women have the potential to be different.

    On the other, I think we get ourselves into weird political messes when we do all the "because [group] are marginalized, it's normal to expect them/us to be better" stuff. It doesn't IMO have a lot of predictive force. Just look at queer people - as soon as there's some power to be had as white cis queer men, the Peter Thiels of the world peel off from the rest of us. Or, god knows, white cis queer women being racist, especially against Black queer youth.

    I think I've actually worked myself around to "let's generalize about white women voters" in a weird way, because I do notice that in queer communities, you rarely go wrong lowering your expectations about white queers. That's totally a generality, but it's kind of a self-protective one, which I guess sheds some new light on the whole thing - maybe saying "don't expect much from white women voters in general" is a way to try to protect yourself from the disappointment and anger when white women voters choose the wages of whiteness.

    Ugh, I guess the real answer is whenever you're in a position of privilege or power, be better, never forget the forces pushing you to be worse.
    posted by Frowner at 2:28 PM on December 13, 2017 [18 favorites]


    Samuel Sinyangwe‏
    "If black people had voted 68% for a pedophile last night, the media would be spending all day questioning the moral character of black families and communities."
    posted by standardasparagus at 2:36 PM on December 13, 2017 [117 favorites]


    It's not just slut-shaming with the abortion issue, it's the belief that the finest, highest calling of womanhood is motherhood. That if you want an abortion, for whatever the reason, you're dangerously unnatural.

    Regarding the double standard mentioned above: for a prime example, note the vastly different estimations of Press Secretary Sean Spicer versus Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Spicer was considered a bit of a sweaty bumbler, in over his head, while Huckabee Sanders is Machiavelli reborn.
    posted by Iris Gambol at 2:38 PM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


    IME it’s safe to assume that literally no one wants to examine their own privilege, because it fucking sucks. It feels bad. It should feel bad! But it’s still hard work that feels crappy. And, weirdly, sometimes the people who have grown most accustomed to thinking about the ways they are oppressed are the people who have the hardest time seeing the ways they oppress others.

    So: white feminists, male POC, cis queers, etc. I think that’s also what makes the internalized -ism discussion so hard.
    posted by schadenfrau at 2:41 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    white male misogyny is just considered acceptable

    I wouldn't say "acceptable," but I consider it the norm, and mostly unfixable. My agenda includes informing and encouraging women to shift how they understand society and their place in it, and raise sons to be aware of women as people, but I consider the vast majority of white men to be lost causes - spots of negativity to work around, not with.

    I would love to believe that 1% of white men could become good allies. I don't. So I wind up criticizing white women, which may involve internalized misogyny, and ignoring white men, which may come across as tolerance instead of "I don't even have the energy for contempt anymore."

    If they can get woke, great! If not, I'm considering them obstacles to stomp over, not people to negotiate with.
    posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:49 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    I do, because it leads to a lot more policing of women’s behavior and rhetoric. “White woman feminism” may be derided, but white male misogyny is just considered acceptable. Expecting women to be better means they’re automatically treated with suspicion, in ways that (say) the “white male proletariat” isn’t.


    It leads to that if it's acted on which is why I made sure to say that I don't personally comment much about because I realize that it is more gut. Feeling a sense of betrayal from people who are supportive of worldviews that have stated goals of denying groups of people basic humanity including their own is not gross.

    Acting on them without introspection and some sort of intellectual and empathic understanding of why a person could essentially betry themselves yeah sure. I see that as gross.
    posted by Jalliah at 2:49 PM on December 13, 2017


    That if you want an abortion, for whatever the reason, you're dangerously unnatural.

    I'd accept that if there weren't ample evidence that anti-abortionists readily use abortions when confronted with inconvenient pregnancies.

    vastly different estimations of Press Secretary Sean Spicer versus Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Spicer was considered a bit of a sweaty bumbler, in over his head, while Huckabee Sanders is Machiavelli reborn.

    Maybe you see something different, but I see this as reversal of the usual male/female stereotypes, and well founded in their contrasting competence and behavior.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 2:50 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    “White woman feminism” may be derided, but white male misogyny is just considered acceptable.

    ... by the same people? Because in my experience as a WOC feminist, people who point out the ways in which white feminism fails to be intersectional are preeeeeeeeeeeeeetty down about white male misogyny.
    posted by joyceanmachine at 2:50 PM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    NT Alexandra Petri, WaPo: Tell me more about Steve Bannon’s genius
    Uncle Henry, you’ve been telling me for months that Steve Bannon was a strategic genius. Can you remind me again why?

    Oh, yes, he is, absolutely. The man gets results. He has 2040 vision. Not bad vision — I realize that sounds like bad vision — but I mean it in the sense that he is thinking 23 years down the road, to the year 2040.

    Oh.

    He has thrown away the chessboard and is playing the whole game using only his mind! Which is sharp as a Bic pen.

    Is that, like, very sharp?

    He went to Harvard! As he is continually reminding people, the way a smart man who people can tell immediately is smart is forced to do, just constantly name-drop all the places he went to school.

    Peter King has said he “looks like a disheveled drunk who wandered onto the political stage.”

    That’s all noise.
    posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:00 PM on December 13, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Imma skip over all this grumpy (but necessary) talk to go back into glee mode for a little......because I've just caught up on the thread after work and last night's personal news blackout (cause I was fairly sure Moore was going to win). I have to say that this whole tax bill has left me extremely pessimistic about the future of our country... and was experiencing some personal "dark tiems." The VA results poked my little flame of hope, but in the wake of the tax bill it sputtered.... this, though? This in what I thought was the most lost of all red states? Maybe, just maybe...... this present darkness isn't the darkness of the tomb, but the darkness of the womb..... and the birthing pains will be worth it all in the end.....

    BREATHE AND PUSH, MOTHERFUCKERS! WE'RE COMING FOR YOU GRANNY STARVERS!

    (also I was so giddy after taking peek at the results last night that my bf asked me if I was drunk, tbh I HAD some drinks - but I was literally giddy over the results)
    posted by Gyre,Gimble,Wabe, Esq. at 3:10 PM on December 13, 2017 [22 favorites]


    It must be noted that a large percentage of White Evangelical Women voters vote the way their husbands tell them to. So any gap between the votes of White Evangelical Women and White Evangelical Men is a step in the right direction.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 3:31 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    The inability of this tribe being unable to process the idea of other women controlling their own bodies in a realistic way,

    Really well said, there, Mental Wimp. Living up to my name, I guess. Delete the phrase "being unable" in your mind, please, if you're feeling generous of spirit. If not, just mock me mercilessly.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 4:37 PM on December 13, 2017


    It must be noted that a large percentage of White Evangelical Women voters vote the way their husbands tell them to.

    As a child of Evangelical parents, I offer a minor correction: At very least, they give their husbands the impression that they've voted the way their husbands wanted them to.
    posted by clawsoon at 4:46 PM on December 13, 2017 [19 favorites]


    Later in the night, my husband and I engaged in highly pleasurable fanfic

    Is that what the kids are calling it these days?
    posted by Daily Alice at 5:05 PM on December 13, 2017 [18 favorites]


    my husband and I engaged in highly pleasurable fanfic

    Netflix and quill?
    posted by mosk at 5:17 PM on December 13, 2017 [51 favorites]


    Lemme just interrupt scores of comments about (sigh) white women with:
    this great Williams parody by @Eric Weiskott:
    I have taken
    the senate seat
    that was in
    yr state

    and which
    you were probably
    saving
    for an alleged pedophile

    Forgive me
    it was democratic
    so special
    and so disproportionately due to
    black voters turning out despite
    significant targeted voter
    suppression efforts

    posted by TwoStride at 5:31 PM on December 13, 2017 [77 favorites]


    Erik Loomis of LGM with his takeaways from Jones' victory:
    First is the obvious, which is that the Democrats required the ultimate of inside straights to win this election. A despised president combined with an actual pedophile theocrat as the Republican candidate was absolutely necessary. At the same time, Doug Jones was a very good candidate. Despite the occasional ridiculous leftist hot take that we should never vote for such a sellout like Jones, the man ran as a real Democrat. His open support of abortion rights was shocking in Alabama, where what Democrats who have run have run scared of the party platform for decades. [...] Doug Jones refused to do so and he won anyway.

    Second, the Jones victory is a vindication of the 50-state strategy. One of the biggest problems with the Obama-led Democratic Party was its indifference to building the party at the state level. That led to way too many uncontested races, including races in southern suburbs that could have been won in 2016. I understand the argument against the strategy–putting a lot of money into unwinnable races has its downside. But then you never quite know when a race is unwinnable, such as this one. [...]

    Third, all the credit goes to black voters, especially black women. Last night, Charles Barkley noted that Democrats need to give black voters and poor voters a real reason for them to vote. The Democratic Party has frankly struggled to do that lately, a consequence in no small part of the rightward turn in American politics that motivated the War on Drugs, Clinton signing welfare “reform,” etc. Democrats need to embrace policies that specifically help people of color. Therefore, let me cosign Simon’s call for restoring the suffrage for felons in every state. This is the correct position both morally and politically. There is simply no reason to tap dance around racists. [...]

    Fourth, a friend of mine reminded me of the ludicrous essays after the election about how blue states should think about secession. This was a bad take a year ago and it’s a bad take now. You stay and fight because you can win.

    Fifth, I saw a number of takes on both Twitter and in comments here from Bernie haters that were so happy Bernie had nothing to do with this. If your take about defeating Roy Moore is that Bernie Sanders sucks, you are as horrible as the worst Bernie Bro. You are part of the problem with the nation and with the Democratic Party. Stop being part of the problem.
    posted by tonycpsu at 5:49 PM on December 13, 2017 [41 favorites]


    Maybe you see something different, but I see this as reversal of the usual male/female stereotypes, and well founded in their contrasting competence and behavior.

    Re: Spicer vs Sanders, this is not at all a reversal of the usual stereotypes. Women who have power and women who want power are seen as evil, dishonest, and Machiavellian in a depressingly consistent way.

    Part of it is the likability/competence trap -- several studies have shown that people tend to see women as either likable or competent but not both. And part of it is just our internalized sense (having grown up in a world where women are 50% of the population, but a tiny percentage of people who wield significant political and economic power) that the natural order of things is for a man to be in charge. If a woman has power it's unnatural, she probably [slept her way to the top/only cares about herself/sold her soul to moneyed interests/is evil, calculating and machiavellian].

    The fact that Sarah Sanders actually is a horrible person doesn't detract from the fact that people see her as evil in a way they don't see Spicer as evil even though they are evil in exactly the same ways. I actually stopped following someone on Instgram whose posts -- pro-social and economic justice -- I otherwise totally agreed with because he posted caricature after caricature of Sanders, exaggeratedly ugly and wearing devil's horns.
    posted by mrmurbles at 6:02 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    Pogo_Fuzzybutt:
    "working class" is one of those phrases that means something different to everyone who uses it. My friend the cop thinks he's working class - but he brings in ~140k a year with overtime, and his wife the accountant adds another 120k on top of that. How they figure they're working class I don't know, but there it is.
    Cops in particular are not, and can never be, working class, because cops are class traitors. Their entire job is to oppress the working class in order to protect capitalists & their property. No one should be letting them get away with that bullshit.
    posted by adrienneleigh at 6:04 PM on December 13, 2017 [31 favorites]


    This is a really important point. We all want lots of field organizing, and we all (me definitely included) get annoyed by fundraising emails. But field organizing is expensive, and the money has to come from somewhere. If you can afford to donate to organizing efforts or directly to candidates, that would be a great thing to do.

    oh my god, THIS.

    This right here. Virginia won with that 8.9 margin and that HoD pickup because Virginia had possibly the greatest field team assembled in modern electoral politics. I am incredibly pleased with this newfound focus on GOTV. And it's working, folks.

    I mean I have Opinions about the best and most effective places to put your money, and if you want them, feel free to MeMail me. But GOTV is how we win.
    posted by dogheart at 6:04 PM on December 13, 2017 [34 favorites]


    Sarah Slob9n, Quartz: Two maps explain the racial history behind Alabama’s senate vote
    Jones defeated Roy Moore in a heated election. Moore, who has been accused of sexual abuse and child molestation, has a long track record of saying offensive things–including that America was “great” during the era of slavery. Meanwhile, Alabama citizens whose ancestors were slaves and likely did not experience that era as “great,” still live in the shadow of civil war monuments.

    This 1860 map from the US Census–a beautiful relic of a horrible part of US history–shows the distribution of slavery in the South. It was made to raise money for sick and wounded soldiers of the army. And while correlation is not causation, there is a startling visual parallel when you zoom in to Alabama on the map and compare it to how Alabama just voted this week.
    Spoiler: most of the areas with the highest historical slave population voted for Jones. It's quite remarkable.
    posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:27 PM on December 13, 2017 [21 favorites]


    Spoiler: most of the areas with the highest historical slave population voted for Jones. It's quite remarkable.

    The Cretaceous coastline in part determined that voting map. It led to the development of particular dark, rich soil well-suited to cotton production, which in fact is the etymological origin of the term "Black Belt." In this circumstance, "blue counties can be explained by the black population, whose ancestors were brought there because of white supremacy, and black soil."

    Nazis claim to be all about Blood and Soil, but this time the direct connection of people's identity to their literal soil is the real deal.
    posted by Rust Moranis at 6:44 PM on December 13, 2017 [42 favorites]




    Came in to talk about the Cretaceous coastline, was beaten to the punch! That series of maps should be in ever geography and history textbook.
    posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:48 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    a 100 million year old coastline
    ...which isn't going to survive much longer with Trump's Climate Policy...
    posted by oneswellfoop at 6:50 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    Third, all the credit goes to black voters, especially black women.

    This is what I meant earlier when I said we needed to stop recentering white people. It doesn't matter if we're talking about the reasons why white people suck. It's still bringing white people to the forefront of the discussion.

    The bottom line is this: WE HAVE BLACK VOTERS TO THANK FOR THIS VICTORY.

    THE. END.
    posted by elsietheeel at 6:55 PM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


    ...which isn't going to survive much longer with Trump's Climate Policy...

    The coastline in question was when most of the South was submerged and a shallow sea divided the west coast from the east. Heck, if anything, it might be restored by Trump’s climate policy.
    posted by Autumnheart at 6:57 PM on December 13, 2017 [13 favorites]


    The bottom line is this: WE HAVE BLACK VOTERS TO THANK FOR THIS VICTORY.

    There's a bit in Maus where the narrator is having a therapy session and describes his feeling that he can't criticise his father, because his father is a hero, being a Holocaust survivor. The therapist asks, well, what does that make the people who didn't survive?

    So if Black voters are responsible for this victory, are they to be blamed for earlier losses? No. Or at least, that's the opposite of a helpful narrative. From my privileged vantage-point in Australia I do want to feel angry at Black voters for not mobilising enough in earlier elections, but I know nothing about what it is to be poor and Black in Alabama, with people trying to disenfranchise me. But still, the Black vote could be much more powerful than it is. If acknowledgement and congratulation helps strengthen it, great. But the most important thing is to strengthen it, not to retrospectively praise it as heroic.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 7:14 PM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    The Boston Globe's food writer tried calling every rabbi in Alabama (all 20 of them) to see which one "fellowshipped" with the Moores. "Most of the Jews here are liberal," one of the rabbis who denied fellowshipping told her. But she didn't reach all of them, and one of the ones she couldn't get has said Hurricane Sandy was divine retribution on New York.
    posted by adamg at 7:14 PM on December 13, 2017 [15 favorites]


    @matthewjdowd: A very interesting piece of data from Alabama exit polls: While White women overall voted for Moore 63 to 34, when you break out evangelical vs non you get evangelical white women 76 - 22 Moore; non-evangelical white women 74 - 21 Jones!
    posted by oneirodynia at 7:15 PM on December 13, 2017 [40 favorites]


    Apparently this is "Roy Moore's Rabbi", may he rejoice in the appellation:
    Rabbi At Roy Moore Rally Says He’ll Stand Up To ‘Gay Terrorists’
    posted by Joe in Australia at 7:36 PM on December 13, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Roy Moore still isn’t conceding.

    But he just released a video message in which he says this: “Abortion, sodomy, and materialism have taken the place of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
    -- @sahilkapur
    posted by murphy slaw at 7:51 PM on December 13, 2017 [6 favorites]


    “Abortion, sodomy, and materialism have taken the place of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

    Now that's a fighting word!
    posted by elsietheeel at 7:56 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    Abortion, sodomy, and materialism

    Worst. Pogues. Record. Ever.
    posted by gwint at 8:13 PM on December 13, 2017 [61 favorites]


    He also makes sure to begin by stating that tomorrow is his 32nd wedding anniversary, presumably in an attempt to one-up and steal the thunder of Jones's 25th-wedding-anniversary electoral victory. Pretty fascinating how Moore's personality disorders are so similar to Trump's.
    posted by Rust Moranis at 8:19 PM on December 13, 2017 [12 favorites]


    Roy Moore still isn’t conceding.

    But he just released a video message in which he says this: “Abortion, sodomy, and materialism have taken the place of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
    -- @sahilkapur


    Buddy, those all fall under life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
    posted by jason_steakums at 8:23 PM on December 13, 2017 [46 favorites]


    If your take about defeating Roy Moore is that Bernie Sanders sucks, you are as horrible as the worst Bernie Bro. You are part of the problem with the nation and with the Democratic Party. Stop being part of the problem

    This, this, motherfucking THIS.
    posted by CommonSense at 9:01 PM on December 13, 2017 [8 favorites]


    what are the odds Moore never concedes, Jones is never seated, and the Senate seat is just empty for the foreseeable future?
    posted by The Whelk at 9:18 PM on December 13, 2017 [4 favorites]


    In this timeline, "what are the odds [bad thing happens]" is a question none of us should really be asking.
    posted by tonycpsu at 9:19 PM on December 13, 2017 [14 favorites]


    A concession is not a legal act. Moore can be convinced he won until the day he dies, it has no impact on the state certification of the election. Jones will be seated, whether or not Roy likes it.
    posted by Chrysostom at 9:26 PM on December 13, 2017 [48 favorites]


    Republicans, on the other hand, are Republicans, and are building up a solid repertoire of techniques for undermining votes that don't go their way. They bear watching on this.
    posted by Artw at 9:32 PM on December 13, 2017 [10 favorites]


    New Yorker: Scenes from Doug Jones’s Unlikely Victory Party in Alabama
    posted by Chrysostom at 9:36 PM on December 13, 2017 [3 favorites]


    Roy, I feel your pain at this election being stolen from you by Mitch McConnell and the RINO DC elites.

    There is only one way to Right this Wrong -- found a new party, the Thou Shalt Not party, based on Evangelical values like being anti-abortion, anti-tax, and pro pedo. Steve Bannon and Sarah Palin can rent a storefront in the local mall for the headquarters.
    posted by benzenedream at 9:44 PM on December 13, 2017 [11 favorites]


    Steve Bannon and Sarah Palin can rent a storefront in the local mall for the headquarters.

    Which would effectively exclude Roy. So sad.
    posted by FelliniBlank at 9:48 PM on December 13, 2017 [29 favorites]


    what are the odds Moore never concedes, Jones is never seated, and the Senate seat is just empty for the foreseeable future?

    0%

    Let this be some meager repayment off all the Whelk posts I have enjoyed
    posted by snuffleupagus at 10:01 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    So, I am curious how we can port the lessons of Alabama and Virginia elsewhere. Here in AZ, the state is 55% non-Hispanic white. But the remaining 45% doesn’t fit into a single group- it’s mostly Hispanic white, but there’s Black, Native, and Asian populations in there too. Who is going to do the work that black women did in Alabama? We don’t have enough of them to carry the load here. Who can I donate to that’ll know the local communities well enough to ably get out the vote among the minority populations here?
    posted by nat at 11:39 PM on December 13, 2017 [2 favorites]


    Who is going to do the work that black women did in Alabama? We don’t have enough of them to carry the load here.

    Taken a bit out of context I admit but reminded me of this line/quote:

    On two occasions I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.

    - Charles Babbage
    posted by RolandOfEld at 5:13 AM on December 14, 2017 [14 favorites]


    Here in the Valley, your legislative district is probably already starting the GOTV effort (I know we began in earnest last summer, ahead of the SOS initiative, and most LDs in the area did the same). They would be a good place to start, and are also the place to go if you want to volunteer for some GOTV work yourself. If you’re not sure of your district, there’s a locator tool on the Maricopa Count Recorder’s Office web site. Some districts have better web/Facebook presences than others, so if you need help finding the people you need to contact for yours, just MeFi Mail me.

    My central Phoenix LD is one of the most heavily populated and bluest in the state, but our turnout has historically been lousy (also thanks to voter suppression, including strategic incompetence by the former County Recorder and (still, for the moment) Secretary of State—vote Katie Hobbs in November!—that disenfranchised thousands of voters even when the VRA was still in effect. If we could bump our turnout by 10-15%, we could almost single-handedly turn elections. That’s a pretty big incentive. Other LDs in the area may face different challenges (like finding and supporting Dem candidates to run for state legislative seats in very red areas), so it’s up to you to decide where you want to direct your attention and donations.

    If you prefer not to go through the Democratic Party directly, the most effective group operating locally is LUCHA. They have been doing excellent grassroots work for years, and have had the same influx of people and interest in the past year as everyone else, but were about the only ones who knew what to do with it.

    I’d say those are your best options around here, to get the most bang for your literal or metaphorical buck.
    posted by Superplin at 5:41 AM on December 14, 2017 [11 favorites]




    “Abortion, sodomy, and materialism..."

    ...says the guy who paid himself $1,030,875 from his charity, despite saying he would not take a "regular salary."
    posted by mcdoublewide at 6:50 AM on December 14, 2017 [24 favorites]


    ..says the guy who paid himself $1,030,875 from his charity, despite saying he would not take a "regular salary."
    In his defense, I wouldn't call $1,030,875 a regular salary.

    Just kidding, I would never defend that wretched, child-molesting, pathetic man.
    posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:31 AM on December 14, 2017 [12 favorites]


    If there's one thing in this country that causes a lot of abortions, it's sodomy.

    Checks out.
    posted by delfin at 7:40 AM on December 14, 2017 [27 favorites]


    If there's one thing in this country that causes a lot of abortions, it's sodomy.

    To quote George Carlin, in regard to Catholics hating gay people and abortions, "They should make natural allies, who has less abortions than homosexuals?"
    posted by Twain Device at 7:43 AM on December 14, 2017 [5 favorites]


    I know there is propensity to write off the basket of deplorables as beyond help, but being mean and derogatory toward large swathes of people is, I am afraid, not cool. It is something that certain people see as a sign of strength when it is 'other' people that are being denigrated, but when it is them being disparaged then respect turns to dislike. This is not a level playing field, it is easy to appeal to base instincts, to othering, scape goating and prejudice, to divide and conquer. Playing fairly and not blaming voters who hold uninformed, ignorant or even racist opinions for the political situation is much more difficult. It is really hard to build a coalition, but what is the other option? Getting people to vote is also very important. Somewhat ironically Trump is a great motivator for his opposition.
    posted by asok at 8:56 AM on December 14, 2017 [3 favorites]


    In his defense, fuck twice-impeached pedophile Roy Moore and anyone who voted for him over staying home. Am I doing it right?
    posted by aspersioncast at 9:07 AM on December 14, 2017 [11 favorites]


    Playing fairly and not blaming voters who hold uninformed, ignorant or even racist opinions for the political situation is much more difficult.

    Why shouldn't we hold them accountable? As was pointed out earlier, if the black community voted heavily for a pedophile, there would be all sorts of thinkpieces about their lack of morality, but when it's white evangelicals, we're suddenly supposed to be understanding?

    A large part of why we're at this point is because we keep being "understanding" of things we should be holding people accountable for.
    posted by NoxAeternum at 9:19 AM on December 14, 2017 [39 favorites]


    being mean and derogatory toward large swathes of people is, I am afraid, not cool.

    I can't tell if you're trying to shame people for talking about how white voters frequently vote against their own best interests out of stupidity and spite, or if you're trying to shame a group of people whose defining feature is their intense hatred of anyone that doesn't fit into their narrow definition of American and their willingness to destroy themselves as long as it harms those nasty "others" they hate so much.
    posted by palomar at 9:24 AM on December 14, 2017 [3 favorites]


    As long as we recognize the difference between holding people accountable and just being an asshole that's perfectly fine. Unfortunately, many use the trappings of the former in service of the latter. Sadly, that is as true for the left as the right. Most of us have a tendency to be assholes if we don't police ourselves.
    posted by wierdo at 9:27 AM on December 14, 2017 [4 favorites]


    Playing fairly and not blaming voters who hold uninformed, ignorant or even racist opinions for the political situation is much more difficult.

    It's like you're speaking in Opposite Day language or something. It's not unfair to blame voters who hold uninformed, ignorant and racist opinions. It's the responsibility of the uninformed to inform themselves. It's the responsibility of the ignorant to learn things. It's the responsibility of racists to work on their racism. They're not going to do any of those things if we can't even discuss their ignorance and their racism, and we can't discuss it if we don't mention it.

    Pretending that there's nothing wrong with casting votes for awful candidates for terrible reasons needs to end, like yesterday.
    posted by 23skidoo at 9:49 AM on December 14, 2017 [22 favorites]


    I’m really not going to worry if I sound like an asshole when I talk about what shitstains evangelical white Christians are for voting for aspiring Nazis, child abusers, and avowed white supremacists. I’m not the asshole in this equation, they are.
    posted by Autumnheart at 9:53 AM on December 14, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Election data said white voters made up 66% of the electorate and voted 68% for Moore.
    Evangelical white voters made up 44% of voters and voted 80% for Moore.
    That means non-Evangelical whites make up 22% of voters and voted 55% for Jones.

    By far the biggest factor here is religion.
    posted by rocket88 at 9:59 AM on December 14, 2017 [15 favorites]


    I think that "Evangelical" is as much a political label as a religious one. Keep in mind that a lot of black voters have similar theological beliefs to white Evangelicals, and almost none of them voted for Moore. And I'm not convinced that there are consistent theological differences between white Protestants who identify as Evangelical and white Protestants who don't, especially since I've seen surveys that suggest that the most consistently conservative voters are white Protestants who identify as Evangelical but rarely go to church.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:02 AM on December 14, 2017 [25 favorites]


    Regardless, acting as though we need to treat the arguments of bigots as though they are legitimate and credible also needs to end yesterday. Not all viewpoints are valid and some really, really don’t deserve a platform of any kind, not so much as a soapbox on a street corner. We all know that the Fairness Doctrine is problematic in the media, and it’s far more so when it’s perpetuated in ordinary discussion.
    posted by Autumnheart at 10:07 AM on December 14, 2017 [9 favorites]


    America is already great.

    How a former sharecropper in an SUV helped drive Doug Jones to victory in Alabama's Black Belt
    If you live in Lowndes County and are of voting age, it's a safe bet that Perman Hardy has spoken with you about voting at some point in the past 25 years.

    As one of the thousands of sharecroppers who worked white men's land in Lowndes County over the years, 59-year-old Hardy recalls picking cotton after school growing up. She eventually finished her education, bought her own home, and had a successful career as a home health nurse.

    But for the past two-and-a-half decades, Hardy has dedicated much of her free time to another pursuit: trying to ensure that every single person in Lowndes County shows up to the polls for every election in Alabama. A native of the unincorporated community of Collirene, she has done about as much as one person possibly could to boost turnout in the impoverished, majority-black county with a population of just 10,458 people.

    "That's my goal is to make sure everyone votes. That's always been my goal. This is what I do every election," she said as she steered her forest-green Chevrolet Tahoe through Collirene, a rural area that was once home to several cotton plantations that employed generations of slaves and sharecroppers.

    "We're in an epidemic poverty county so it's so important for us to vote today," she told AL.com. "I took some people today who've never cast a ballot before."

    On Tuesday, like she says she does every time Alabamians head to the polls, Hardy spent more than 10 hours driving registered voters to polling stations who did not have transportation or were otherwise unable to make the trip without help. Over the course of the day, she personally drove more than 50 people to polling sites across Lowndes County.
    posted by chris24 at 10:17 AM on December 14, 2017 [72 favorites]


    the most consistently conservative voters are white Protestants who identify as Evangelical but rarely go to church

    Ah yes, the people who identify as Evangelical and religious solely for the sweet feeling of superiority, thereby missing the point by actual light years.

    Uh, the discussion upthread about white women wasn’t to suggest that we criticize white (apparently evangelical!) women who vote for evil less, it was that we go after white men who vote for evil more. So...call them assholes more.

    Or rather: I don’t think we should placate the abusers, because it just enables them and compounds the abuse suffered by the abused. Calling them assholes might not change their minds, but not calling them assholes is not a neutral act, either; it gaslights the shit out of the people they hurt, in addition to enabling the assholes themselves. So. Yeah.

    White Evangelicals are a goddamn problem, but I don’t think it’s actual religion that’s driving them. (Though the religious community ties are probably a force multiplier for their political influence.) It’s white supremacist patriarchy in a religion suit.
    posted by schadenfrau at 10:29 AM on December 14, 2017 [10 favorites]


    AN OPEN LETTER TO POPE FRANCIS

    Your Holiness:

    I am a baptized Catholic, and therefore I am aware that it is not exactly the done thing to canonize a person who is still living. However - I urge you to consider making an exception in the case of Perman Hardy.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:30 AM on December 14, 2017 [11 favorites]


    And I'm not convinced that there are consistent theological differences between white Protestants who identify as Evangelical and white Protestants who don't, especially since I've seen surveys that suggest that the most consistently conservative voters are white Protestants who identify as Evangelical but rarely go to church.

    I'd be shocked if they have anything resembling a coherent set of beliefs and practices about their putative faith, or could accurately describe the teachings of Christ from the Gospels. I'd imagine the Beatitudes would come as quite a shock.
    posted by leotrotsky at 10:37 AM on December 14, 2017 [8 favorites]


    "By far the biggest factor here is religion."
    "I think that "Evangelical" is as much a political label as a religious one. "


    This is definitely true. There are a lot of surveys coming out about "evangelical" Christians and there's a big shift underway. Like, some of the people who identify most strongly as "evangelical" to pollsters don't actually attend church. A LOT of younger Christians whose beliefs clearly fit the "evangelical" theological definition refuse to identify as such, because the word is so toxically affiliated with ultra-right-wing Republicanism, racism, and so forth. My seminary alumni magazine (for a Protestant seminary in the South) has featured a bunch of articles lately about the word "evangelical" and how rapidly and comprehensively it's being abandoned by younger evangelical Protestants, and how even some prominent professors, pastors, and theologians are dropping the word because just using it immediately undercuts their credibility as Christians and impedes their ability to preach and teach, because "evangelical" now means "racist and Republican." The overall tone is that people are perplexed and bewildered and kind-of sad about it, but a lot of them are simply giving up on reclaiming the word.

    It's a tiny bit dangerous because we still conflate evangelical churches and evangelical theology with evangelical voters, but that is less and less and less true. It's a little tricky to point to evangelical theology and interrogate evangelical voters on that basis, because the two are increasingly unrelated. And as the right has gotten more overtly racist, even fairly conservative churches have begun distancing themselves from "evangelical voters" and Republican positions. I mean, plenty are still all-in for the GOP, and lots of church-attending evangelicals vote for Roy Moore, but there's enough change happening here for it to show up in the data. When we talk about "evangelical voters," we shouldn't necessarily be thinking of traditional evangelical churches, but of the right-wing network of Christian homeschoolers, Christian NRA groups, Quiverfull groups, unaffiliated churches with closed accounting (oversight is toxic to these groups), Christian lobbying organizations, Dominionists, Generation Joshua, Operation Rescue, Focus on the Family, FRC, etc. Very little of this organizing or political information is coming out of traditional evangelical churches -- some of it is, but most of it comes from this network of right-wing Christian and Christian-adjacent organizations that are NOT churches.

    (I actually could go on quite a long time about how "evangelical voters" and this right-wing Christian ecosystem differs from traditional evangelical church people and stuff, and why, but I think that would probably get boring, and I've made my point.)

    Anyway, yeah, lots of "evangelical" voters who don't go to church, lots of people who hold evangelical theology who refuse to call themselves evangelical. The word is undergoing a very rapid change and it can be confusing and misleading and we (if we are democrats making decisions about campaigns and stuff) should be kinda careful to slice-and-dice the data and make sure we understand exactly who we're talking about and where they're coming from, so we're more effective campaigners.
    posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:44 AM on December 14, 2017 [39 favorites]


    My feelings are a lot closer to asok's than a lot of MeFi. That doesn't mean I want to spend any time trying to sway Trump supporters or focusing on them, but many of them have been subjected to 40+ years of targeted propaganda. They haven't taken the same set of facts that we have access to and drawn different, worse conclusions - they are legitimately living in a different, invented reality. Of course they are accountable for their actions and of course I don't have any desire to cater to them, but I can't completely hate them either, at least not the way I hate the politicians and propagandists who use them.
    posted by showbiz_liz at 10:49 AM on December 14, 2017 [6 favorites]


    I'd be shocked if they have anything resembling a coherent set of beliefs and practices about their putative faith, or could accurately describe the teachings of Christ from the Gospels. I'd imagine the Beatitudes would come as quite a shock.

    Oh, I'd wager they have heard of the Beatitudes. In fact, I bet that most of them have posters in their homes with the Beatitudes transcribed on them and illustrated with an image of a fair-skinned, sandy-haired Jesus speaking to a cluster of robed children sitting around His feet and looking up at Him adoringly.

    They just think that the Beatitudes are conditional, much like the rest of the Bible.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:50 AM on December 14, 2017 [6 favorites]


    My favorite Beatitude is Ringo.
    posted by Faint of Butt at 10:52 AM on December 14, 2017 [19 favorites]


    I am all for compromising and, in a spirit of bipartisanship, doing all the horrible things they want, but only to them.
    posted by Artw at 10:54 AM on December 14, 2017 [5 favorites]


    I'd be shocked if they have anything resembling a coherent set of beliefs and practices about their putative faith, or could accurately describe the teachings of Christ from the Gospels.

    It's the Old Testament form of Christianity. You know, the oxymoron kind.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 11:09 AM on December 14, 2017 [2 favorites]


    the right-wing network of Christian homeschoolers, Christian NRA groups, Quiverfull groups, unaffiliated churches with closed accounting (oversight is toxic to these groups), Christian lobbying organizations, Dominionists, Generation Joshua, Operation Rescue, Focus on the Family, FRC, etc.

    So, where "Christian" = "Not you" for the vast majority of "you"s.

    Thanks for this perspective, Eyebrows McGee. M youngest brother and his wife fit this pattern, even though they are nominally Catholic. I believe there is a faction in the RCC that identify as "evangelists," and I suspect this is the faction my sib and his spouse belong to. In light of his opposition to poverty and safety net programs, I once questioned him whether Jesus explicitly prohibited ministering to the poor through government programs. His response stunned me. He said, paraphrasing, that if he is forced to help them through taxes, then he can't demonstrate his charity in order to get into heaven. Yes, they really do think in convoluted ways.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 11:21 AM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]


    "Well, what's in my HEART certainly won't get me into heaven, so I have to work the system."
    posted by delfin at 11:23 AM on December 14, 2017 [6 favorites]


    Jesus also said Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's, and I know that can be interpreted in a wide variety of ways, but I prefer to think of it as "Jesus is A-OK with paying taxes." In fact if we think of taxes as a form of charity - distribution to the less fortunate, or those down on their luck - paying taxes is godly.

    I really like Slacktivist (Fred Clark) and all his posts on fundagelical origins and culture. And, Eyebrows, thank you for your very informative post - it seems that so many "evangelicals" aren't churched at all - or, considering the homeschooling etc., are less and less integrated into mainstream society - which, I think, is far more concerning. After all, you can be very much a part of society without going to church, but dropping out of society completely is more costly, especially for children.

    There's a great article in Quartz on this: For irreligious evangelicals, Christianity is about politics, not God.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:33 AM on December 14, 2017 [16 favorites]


    It's the Old Testament form of Christianity. You know, the oxymoron kind.

    Jew here, and I promise you the religion practiced by these groups has as little to do with what’s written in the Torah as it does with the teachings of Christ. (And honestly I find that reference and association kind of hurtful.)
    posted by Andrhia at 11:55 AM on December 14, 2017 [22 favorites]


    I suspect they actually rely on a lot of pretend old-timey shit that goes back no further than the 19th century, like Wiccans do.
    posted by Artw at 12:02 PM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]


    It's the Old Testament form of Christianity. You know, the oxymoron kind.

    Jew here, and I promise you the religion practiced by these groups has as little to do with what’s written in the Torah as it does with the teachings of Christ. (And honestly I find that reference and association kind of hurtful.)
    posted by Andrhia at 11:55 AM on December 14 [2 favorites +] [!]


    I apologize and didn't intend to smear Judaism. I intended only to refer to the "angry God" of the Christian Old Testament. I know there is near overlap between it and the Torah, but the way Judaism treats the text and the way these "Old Testament" Christians do are mostly polar opposites. I mean, they take some of the most egregious passages literally in order to justify hate. They then conveniently ignore the entire New Testament and vast swaths of the Old at the same time, lest they be required to amend their ways.
    posted by Mental Wimp at 12:04 PM on December 14, 2017 [5 favorites]


    Shit like this is why we have a Talmud.
    posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:05 PM on December 14, 2017 [26 favorites]


    It's as if fundagelical religion is an invented tradition - like Scottish clan tartans, or the Wiccan religion. The big difference being that tartans and Wicca are innocuous, and in the case of the latter, give real joy and meaning to people's lives; but fundagelical religion is in a position to do much harm, largely because of the money propping it up and its influence in politics.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 12:16 PM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]




    All I'm saying regarding being an asshole is that you should at least betargeted in your assholery. Like it or not, the electorate is still white enough that you need (for the moment, the number decreases every year) 30-35% of the white vote to win.

    That doesn't mean "do only what white people want," it means don't be an asshole to white people generally unless you're targeting it at Republicans or racists or whatever. We're better off when we can give people something to vote for rather than against, at least at first. You give them the anti after they're familiar with your candidate, otherwise your candidate looks like any other jackass running for office and it makes it harder to get people fired up.
    posted by wierdo at 1:25 PM on December 14, 2017


    The thing about the "you forced me to be a racist/nazi" crows is they were generally that to begin with.
    posted by Artw at 1:26 PM on December 14, 2017 [5 favorites]


    smdh. The fact that so many of these Evangelicals think that it's just Moore and Trump that's tainting them really does suggest to me that they really don't get why nobody trusts them or their take on faith anymore.
    posted by anem0ne at 1:37 PM on December 14, 2017 [15 favorites]


    Christian Old Testament

    Ugh. Maybe just stop? If you're in the market for an oxymoron, this is a pretty good one.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 1:38 PM on December 14, 2017 [2 favorites]


    don't be an asshole to white people generally unless you're targeting it at Republicans or racists or whatever.

    Who is this advice for? I mean, specifically—where are these people, on metafilter or elsewhere, for whom this advice is urgently necessary? I haven’t come across anyone even vaguely in the mainstream who is being horrible to or about white people in general and not racists or Republicans in particular. In the year of “oh look, the literal Nazis are back, how can we understand them without alienating them?”, are you sure this is the most urgent piece of advice we need?
    posted by Aravis76 at 1:40 PM on December 14, 2017 [16 favorites]


    We're better off when we can give people something to vote for rather than against, at least at first

    That's not the lesson of recent elections, if this is meant to be tactical insight. Trump's platform was nothing more than a list of people and policies to be against or destroy.

    their take on faith

    their 'take' is right. Fully tax exempt too.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 1:42 PM on December 14, 2017


    Kashana Cauley, NYT: Black Voters To Democrats: You're Welcome
    We are drowning in reports on how Democrats can win the white working class. But blacks are the ones who have a much more robust history of turning out to vote and winning elections for Democrats.

    ...

    To be competitive nationwide, Democrats need to fight voter ID laws, pass automatic voter registration, restore the Voting Rights Act to its full strength and work to re-enfranchise ex-felons, who deserve to be fully reintegrated into society. Democrats should also make policy appeals aimed at black voters and support promising black candidates like Stacey Abrams, who’s running for governor of Georgia in 2018.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:47 PM on December 14, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Michael Harriot, The Root: Nah, White Women... You Can't Have This One
    Black people are 26 percent of the population in Alabama, but the Washington Post says they were 29 percent of Tuesday’s electorate. Conversely, whites are 68 percent of Alabama’s population, yet only 66 percent voted in Alabama’s Senate race.

    Let’s put it this way: Using AL.com’s raw vote totals and the Washington Post’s exit polls—if every woman in the state assembled themselves and each one of Jones’ black female supporters stood beside a white woman who voted for him, there would still be 82,278 black women standing by themselves wondering “Where the white women at?”

    Now, explain to me, again, who “showed up.”
    posted by palomar at 1:58 PM on December 14, 2017 [42 favorites]


    Rosie M. Banks: There's a great article in Quartz on this: For irreligious evangelicals, Christianity is about politics, not God.

    It's interesting that Evangelicals who don't go to church are the most likely to support Trump and be racist:
    I once asked the late Ed Cairns, a social psychologist who led the University of Ulster’s Peace and Conflict Research Group, whether survey data indicated that religious devoutness predicted hostile attitudes. His answer: “If anything, the more people believed or went to church, the less prejudice they showed.” His finding coincides with 20th century US prejudice studies, which revealed that, among “Christians,” those who seldom or irregularly attended worship expressed more racial prejudice than did faithful attenders.
    That vaguely squares with my experience. (I keep thinking of the Evangelical Sunday School song, "Red and Yellow, Black and White, All are precious in His sight." It's simultaneously inclusive and racist; a regressive dividing of the world alongside the message that all the divisions are precious.)
    posted by clawsoon at 2:05 PM on December 14, 2017 [11 favorites]


    That doesn't mean "do only what white people want," it means don't be an asshole to white people generally unless you're targeting it at Republicans or racists or whatever.

    I guess I will just have to take the controversial position that the big problem in the US, in general, or with US race relations more specifically is not racism against white people.
    posted by ActingTheGoat at 2:10 PM on December 14, 2017 [15 favorites]


    I hate the idea that people who vote for Democrats are doing the party a favor. People who express their will by voting are doing themselves a favor.
    posted by chrchr at 2:12 PM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]


    That's not the lesson of recent elections, if this is meant to be tactical insight. Trump's platform was nothing more than a list of people and policies to be against or destroy.


    Yeah, and we learned in Virginia and Alabama how to successfully fight it. It does not involve adopting their tactics.

    As far as the blatant misreading of the rest of what I was saying, there's not even a point in engaging. Reading all of my comments today makes what I was saying quite clearly not what some characterized it as.
    posted by wierdo at 2:26 PM on December 14, 2017


    When nobody seems to be taking the same meaning from your words as you, maybe the problem is not that every single person is willfully misinterpreting you but that you're not expressing the message you're intending to.
    posted by phearlez at 2:30 PM on December 14, 2017 [12 favorites]




    When nobody seems to be taking the same meaning from your words as you, maybe the problem is not that every single person is willfully misinterpreting you but that you're not expressing the message you're intending to.

    yet when people argue that maybe it's rhetorically not the strongest move to blanket-blame 'white voters' in endless tweets, comments, and 'thinkpieces,' this logic is often... not applied, and the problem is in fact claimed to be that people are willfully misinterpreting or crying white tears or whatever
    posted by halation at 2:38 PM on December 14, 2017


    So “being an asshole to all white people” = making a factual claim about the racial demographic of voters who did in fact vote for Roy Moore in Alabama?

    Look, identifying and predicting voting behaviour is an important part of political analysis. It’s important to know what a politician might feasibly do to change the voting behaviour of the majority, either by changing the minds of voters or improving engagement among sympathetic non-voters. If you cannot lose the vote of the majority of white voters in Alabama by being a pedophile, then that’s pretty vital information to have. That data tells you that, unless you want to compromise on the basic “let’s not be relaxed about pedophilia” principle, you’ve got to drive up engagement among other voters than the ones who share the characteristics of Moore’s voters in Alabama. That’s not being unkind to the white voters of Alabama. It’s just doing a political calculation.

    Frankly, I’ve spent the last year, post-Brexit and -Trump, listening to serious people on the left argue that maybe compromising on “let’s not be racist” is a valid response to the voting behaviour of certain demographics in both the UK and the US. Of course I find this personally depressing and upsetting, as a brown person, but I understand the calculation that the argument depends on. But now apparently this very same factual point—“white working class voters from the American South/from Yorkshire are not motivated to vote by anti-racism and can in fact be mobilised to vote by racism”— is a fine and realistic one to make in support of an argument that we should may be let up on the anti-racism, yet somehow becomes grossly insensitive and rhetorically foolish when it instead supports an argument that other voters need to be mobilised by those of us who don’t care to ditch the anti-racism.
    posted by Aravis76 at 2:59 PM on December 14, 2017 [19 favorites]


    Let us not diminish the suffering of those who had not. Even those who had felt pain.

    But those martyrs of a new America were heros to a whole generation. Alabama represents a turning point in our long national nightmare. If justice can be had in Alabama, than we can have justice everywhere. There is no dark hole we cannot illuminate. There is no place for evil to stand.

    And though the times were trying and tried, through hope the people persevered. And though the cost was high, eventually the purifying fires came to exorcise Washington.

    It was a long time coming, it was a really tough fight, but we walked the path together and in the end love did overcome hate. And peace on earth was brought at last.

    Its a little premature, but thank you Alabama for restoring hope to this old man.
    posted by getting_back_on_track at 3:22 PM on December 14, 2017 [6 favorites]


    I wonder if there's anywhere to donate to Perman Hardy - I'd love to chip in with a gas card or something. She's got to be paying a lot for gas and vehicle upkeep, driving voters to the polls.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:29 PM on December 14, 2017 [10 favorites]


    Just found out there is a GoFundMe for Ms. Hardy!
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:30 PM on December 14, 2017 [20 favorites]


    Your daily dose of schadenfreude:
    FoxNews wannabe One America News Network (OAN) — which, from my experience, is something available only on gym TVs — apparently called the race for Roy Moore [Twitter video] at some point during election night and also posted an article saying the same to their website, which was later deleted. (Google cache link to article, complete with comments!)
    posted by Atom Eyes at 4:22 PM on December 14, 2017 [3 favorites]


    Frankly, I’ve spent the last year, post-Brexit and -Trump, listening to serious people on the left argue that maybe compromising on “let’s not be racist” is a valid response to the voting behaviour of certain demographics in both the UK and the US.

    That was literally the same argument that the NYT made about Hitler: that the antisemitism stuff was necessary to engage the working class and would be dropped as soon as the movement was firmly established. What most of us don't really comprehend is that hatred is really, really important to some people. The NYT thought the Nazis were socialists that were exploiting antisemitism, but it was actually the other way around. Once you start saying that you can accept racists and misogynists in your big tent then you've let them change the nature of your whole movement.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 4:59 PM on December 14, 2017 [43 favorites]


    Once you start saying that you can accept racists and misogynists in your big tent then you've let them change the nature of your whole movement.

    Or, to paraphrase something I read after Charlottesville, if someone who isn't a Nazi finds themselves standing next to a Nazi and doesn't immediately leave, they're a Nazi.
    posted by Justinian at 5:01 PM on December 14, 2017 [36 favorites]


    Justinian, maybe you're thinking of that Chris Rock tweet
    If 10 guys thinks it's ok to hang with 1 Nazi then they just became 11 Nazis. Alt right / white supremacist it's just nazis. Fuck Nazis.
    posted by cybertaur1 at 5:12 PM on December 14, 2017 [34 favorites]


    Nobody is saying we should accept bigotry. I'm not saying we should accept the anti-woman crowd either. What I'm saying is that if you paint with too broad a brush you alienate the subset of the white electorate that is necessary to win elections.

    Please do continue to point out specific examples of people being shitty, especially if they're white dudes. There's no need to be shitty to people who agree with you, though.
    posted by wierdo at 5:17 PM on December 14, 2017 [1 favorite]


    Not sure who you think that is.
    posted by Artw at 5:32 PM on December 14, 2017 [8 favorites]


    The subset of the white electorate that is likely to be that offended by being painted with too broad a brush probably isn't going to vote outside of their racist purview, so yeah... like Artw said: not sure who you think that is.
    posted by elsietheeel at 5:40 PM on December 14, 2017 [3 favorites]


    It's pretty clear from this thread alone that there are a number of people who dislike the framing of the voting data as "white working class voters from the south are motivated by racism" instead of perhaps something like "the vast majority of working class white voters from the south are motivated by racism".

    There is a pretty big difference between those two statements. One reduces people to their demographic group without considering their own personal beliefs. The other accurately states the situation without lumping every every person who shares one or two characteristics together.
    posted by nolnacs at 5:48 PM on December 14, 2017 [1 favorite]


    Every other demographic puts up with “demographic x votes this way” as statistical shorthand for “[the vast majority of] demographic x votes this way”, though. It is only statistical shorthand, and I’ve only ever seen it used as such, in describing or predicting the behaviour of a mass of voters acting collectively. If people were invoking this stuff to make decisions or judgments about specific individuals purely because of their membership of some demographic group, that would be bad, but I’ve seen no evidence of it being used that way.

    I’m not sure why it’s fine to talk about the Hispanic vote, and the black vote, and the millenial vote, but when it comes to white people from the South, shorthand is offensive and we have to carefully spell out every time that statistical claims don’t tell us about individual outcomes. Why do only white people require this point to be made every time someone wants to make a statistical claim about their voting behaviour? It is embarrassing, obviously, if their voting behaviour correlates with racist or misogynist or is-pedophilia-a-big-deal beliefs, but the solution to that is not to deny the statistical correlation but to try and understand its causes and what can be done about it. Saying #notallwhitevoters hold these beliefs is manifestly true, on an individual level, but not that useful as a piece of post-election analysis where our interest is precisely in collective behaviour.
    posted by Aravis76 at 6:05 PM on December 14, 2017 [49 favorites]


    It's pretty clear from this thread alone that there are a number of people who dislike the framing of the voting data as "white working class voters from the south are motivated by racism" instead of perhaps something like "the vast majority of working class white voters from the south are motivated by racism".

    There is a pretty big difference between those two statements. One reduces people to their demographic group without considering their own personal beliefs. The other accurately states the situation without lumping every every person who shares one or two characteristics together.


    There's really not that big a difference between those two statements. No one who says "white working class voters in the south are motivated by racism" means "100% of all white voters in the south are motivated by racism". That's not how language is colloquially used.
    posted by 23skidoo at 6:17 PM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]


    The amount of fucking energy spent so that white people don't ever have to feel their morals/integrity/character are being ever so slightly possibly maligned... Meanwhile, POC and LGBT are fighting for full humanity.

    - signed, a white guy who understands that if he's not the problem, then it doesn't refer to him. And anyway, it's his job as a white guy to help fix the problem, not the job of the victims of the problem.
    posted by chris24 at 6:30 PM on December 14, 2017 [45 favorites]


    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee is on point as usual.
    posted by piyushnz at 6:41 PM on December 14, 2017 [4 favorites]


    Kashana Cauley's NYT article tells us what we, Democrats, need to do to win. We need to make sure that everyone has the right to vote - put teeth in the right-to-vote laws. We need to enfranchise felons and former felons. Everyone over 18 gets to vote, and they need to get to the polls.

    The demographics are going to be different in every state, but I think that Cauley's prescription applies to all races of voters. Enfranchise people and get them to vote. I think it's really that simple. The reason Republicans are fighting to disenfranchise as many people as they can is that their policies are not popular. They are kissing racist white butt, and, without voter suppression, they would still lose in most areas.

    Attitudes toward gay marriage and legal marijuana have become much, much more liberal over the years, and this is across a broad swath of demographics. Maybe this is Too Optimistic For Metafilter, but attitudes toward social justice can change and become more liberal, too.

    Instead of "How do we win over bigots?" let's ask "How do we work with the people who really do like us and get them to the polls?" We don't need the people who get all their information from Breitbart. And no way in hell do we throw POC's, LGBT people's, and women's rights under the bus for them.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:48 PM on December 14, 2017 [32 favorites]


    I think that if you actually won't help if someone uses too broad strokes to describe your demgraphic group, then you are not as helpful as you think.

    I mean, I freely admit that I've heard men say some frankly misogynist stuff (about appearance, bodies, sexuality, etc) about white women under the guise of "we all know white women are terrible", and as an AFAB white person I don't like that one bit, and I think it's people letting their misogyny out to play rather than providing an analysis. But no amount of that will ever, ever change how I vote, or change my desire to elect candidates of color, fight white supremacists and end social/economic/political racial inequality. I appreciate it when people are fair and self-aware in their analysis of white voting patterns, but that isn't even close to being on the list of things that mobilize me politically.
    posted by Frowner at 6:54 PM on December 14, 2017 [24 favorites]


    Full Frontal with Samantha Bee is on point as usual.

    She was, until she finished the segment by recentering on white women again.
    posted by elsietheeel at 6:54 PM on December 14, 2017


    She was, until she finished the segment by recentering on white women again.

    Not "white women," Roy Moore's accusers. As individuals.

    Come on.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 7:03 PM on December 14, 2017 [34 favorites]


    A friend of mine from college - she is white and lives in NYC and is a lawyer - volunteered in AL before and on the day of the election. She reports:
    My polling place in an all Black district in Montgomery was packed all day and people stood on line, left to go to work and came back and stood on line some more. Many, many elderly and disabled people braved crushing crowds and incredible chaos in the cramped polling place to vote. It went 99.5% for Doug Jones.

    The polling place opened late becuase it was missing the keys for the scanners, causing some, who had come super early to vote before work, to leave. In light of the unexpected crowds, we sent campaign attorneys to court to get more staff so we could have two registration tables instead of one. Then we went back to court to get more when that wasn't enough. I spent the morning convincing people to stay on line despite its length and the cold, and handing out water, hand warmers, granola bars, and donuts. After we got more staff and split and then re-split the registration line, I spent most of my time instructing people which line to get on, making signs, helping the elderly and disabled get to the front of the line, and moving furniture out of the crowded polling place to make more room for the voters. You may not know this, but these are the kind of skills we learned at Yale Law School!

    In a blatant effort to suppress the vote, there were two separate ballots — one for the US Senate race and one for a state senate race — so people had to line up for one, at times for hours, fill it out and (line up to) scan their ballot, and then line up AGAIN sometimes for an hour, to vote in the second race. It was incredibly confusing, requiring much explanation. Obviously not everyone could stay that long. So the vote was suppressed in that second race and it depended on the polling place which ballot was first. It was apparently required by the Republican Secretary of State. Disgraceful.

    However, don’t get me started on white people. Though we met a handful of energized and progressive white folks when canvassing, overall, it’s embarrassing. The only plus was that many stayed home rather than vote for Moore. But really people, get it together. Pay attention.

    So thank you, thank you African American voters!
    posted by rtha at 7:37 PM on December 14, 2017 [71 favorites]


    I'm not diminishing his accusers here, but the framing (as per usual) leaves a lot to be desired. If we fail to point out how we could improve then we just fall into the status quo again and again and again. So I'm sorry not sorry for holding Samantha Bee to a higher standard.
    posted by elsietheeel at 7:45 PM on December 14, 2017 [1 favorite]


    She literally put up a composite photo of their faces. Those are actual human beings. They were brave to come forward and that's a plain truth. Even if they're white women.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:35 PM on December 14, 2017 [15 favorites]


    I appreciate it when people are fair and self-aware in their analysis of white voting patterns, but that isn't even close to being on the list of things that mobilize me politically.

    People here on MeFi are plugged in enough to know what people mean, so I'd hope none of us would be silly enough to take our ball and go home. If I thought people like us made up the 30ish percent of the white voters we need to win I wouldn't say anything at all.
    posted by wierdo at 9:03 PM on December 14, 2017


    The fact that Sarah Sanders actually is a horrible person doesn't detract from the fact that people see her as evil in a way they don't see Spicer as evil even though they are evil in exactly the same ways.

    I agree with your general point -- though I think it's much more applicable to Hillary than Sarah Sanders.

    But I think there's more to the greater sympathy for Spicer compared to Huckabee Sanders. He was clearly beleagured, struggling with the ethics of his task, and just bad at his job -- all sympathetic traits -- as well as being a non-Trump (establishment) Republican. I mean, the guy hid in the bushes. That's adorable.

    Sarah Sanders is actually very good at her evil job, but I think the combination of skill + evil has more to do with her lower sympathy than her gender. In gender terms, she is as aggressive as any previous press secretary and is essentially performing male gender.
    posted by msalt at 9:54 PM on December 14, 2017 [7 favorites]


    I feel like Sarah Sanders is laboring under a sins-of-the-father love-to-hate-her dynamic too. Compounding the gendered aspects.

    That said, I feel like Spicer was pretty heartlessly mocked through his whole tenure so sympathy now is kind of beside the point, at least so far as comparison to what Sanders endures while she's there.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 10:33 PM on December 14, 2017 [2 favorites]


    I think that if you actually won't help if someone uses too broad strokes to describe your demgraphic group, then you are not as helpful as you think.

    QFT. There was a dude in the harassment thread who thought women needed to deal with Al Franken and other grabby Democratic men because every day under Republican rule was killing his soul, and when a bunch of us pushed back, he said our pushback was just the kind of thing that might cause him to vote Republican. That's the kind of ally I don't need.
    posted by sunset in snow country at 10:52 PM on December 14, 2017 [40 favorites]


    I hate the idea that people who vote for Democrats are doing the party a favor. People who express their will by voting are doing themselves a favor.

    Quoted again because it literally made me say "YESSSSSSSSSS!" at my desk just now.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:45 AM on December 15, 2017 [6 favorites]


    If people were invoking this stuff to make decisions or judgments about specific individuals purely because of their membership of some demographic group, that would be bad, but I’ve seen no evidence of it being used that way.

    They... do? It's pretty common? "All [x] are terrible" / "are trash" are pretty common-place 'thinkpiece' headlines or social media themes, at this point. You can argue that headlines like these shouldn't alienate voters because they're not about literal specific individuals, I suppose. I'm not sure it's a convincing argument. (Obviously, these are written specifically to court outrage clicks in all directions. But that's part of the problem with the rhetoric.)

    I mean, I freely admit that I've heard men say some frankly misogynist stuff (about appearance, bodies, sexuality, etc) about white women under the guise of "we all know white women are terrible", and as an AFAB white person I don't like that one bit, and I think it's people letting their misogyny out to play rather than providing an analysis.

    And this doesn't just happen to whites, or specifically to white/cis women, and it is a problem when it is done to any demographic, not just whites or specifically white/cis women. We shouldn't just 'tolerate the shorthand,' because it's a great way to alienate people. It arguably shouldn't be enough to keep people from voting, but it could be. (People are irritating that way, in that they have feelings, and even if those feelings seem irrational, invalid, or selfish to others, they're not going to stop having feelings, even if they're told they're being irrational or selfish.)

    It's a problem when people claim that all [insert demographic here] voters are misogynistic, or homophobic. It's not untrue that many white voters are racist, and certainly that will influence how they vote, but it's not necessarily accurate or helpful to say 'and that's why the Moore race was close,' given that identifying as 'pro-life' or 'evangelical' (while also being white) seems to be a stronger predictor of voting patterns. We can perform more sophisticated demographic analysis than that, we need to, and sticking with the broad-strokes language isn't helpful for that goal, so I assume people do it largely to vent, or because it's emotionally satisfying. (And that isn't invalid... but it's not necessarily more valid than people feeling alienated by that venting language. I speak from personal experience in my own social circles when I say this kind of venting language is a really poor way to motivate others to do... really anything at all.)
    posted by halation at 5:06 AM on December 15, 2017 [7 favorites]


    Nathan Mathis, the Alabama father who protested Moore's rally because he lost his lesbian daughter to suicide, will be on Ellen today.

    @andylassner (The Ellen Show producer)
    Getting to meet and hug Nathan Mathis from Alabama made my year.
    An incredible man and father.
    Watch tomorrow.
    PIX
    posted by chris24 at 5:24 AM on December 15, 2017 [3 favorites]


    They... do? It's pretty common? "All [x] are terrible" / "are trash" are pretty common-place 'thinkpiece' headlines or social media themes, at this point. You can argue that headlines like these shouldn't alienate voters because they're not about literal specific individuals, I suppose.

    Or you could argue that they don't in any way say "all," are clearly about how the majority of the demographic voted, and clearly and distinctly specify the relevant percentage instead of saying "all."

    Honestly I expect that the overwhelming majority of voters who would be notionally alienated by articles like that are so desperately looking for a reason to not vote for a Democrat that they'll dig up *something* and it doesn't much matter whether it's an article talking about white people or some other thing.
    posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:56 AM on December 15, 2017 [11 favorites]


    Or you could argue that they don't in any way say "all," are clearly about how the majority of the demographic voted, and clearly and distinctly specify the relevant percentage instead of saying "all."

    The headlines do not clearly and distinctly specify relevant percentages. They imply the 'all.' And this is a problem. The same kind of problem is obvious with arguments about other demographics -- no, 'all' is not always literally specified, but listeners sure do tend to hear it, whether it's about 'the violence of Islam' or anything else. And yes, I know it is frustrating to hear people complain when the blanket assumptions/assertions are made about white people and not about other demographics, but that doesn't mean 'make the assumptions/assertions about white people too' is the right answer. It's the same issue we see now with the opioid crisis -- criminalization was always the wrong way to go about drug problems in any community, and it's absolutely inarguably true and shitty that drug users in communities of colour have not been (and still aren't!) afforded the kind of consideration drug users in white communities often are, but that doesn't mean we should treat white drug users the way we've treated drug users of colour and lock them up. We need to treat everyone else better. Same with our tendencies to generalise with rhetoric: we don't need to treat white people better than we've treated everyone else. We need to be mindful of alienating anyone.

    the overwhelming majority of voters who would be notionally alienated by articles like that are so desperately looking for a reason to not vote for a Democrat

    Why assume that? There's a lot of distance between making the kind of bad-faith readings that are sometimes made about democrats or 'elite liberals' and feeling alienated by articles with literal 'you are a bad person because of your demographic' framing. And why, when it would be relatively easy to avoid that framing, take a risk? Voters may not be alienated enough to speak out, but they might donate less, or decide not to volunteer, or get busy/feel ill on election day and just need one little push to stay home. The margins are too thin.
    posted by halation at 6:18 AM on December 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


    Know how I said above that I had never been more ashamed to be from Alabama? You'd think the fact that the whole election thing didn't go for Moore, despite all the normal (though you don't know how much I loathe using that word in this context) voter disenfranchisement that I already knew to expect from the state, would be enough to give me some pride back...

    It did, for only a brief moment, and now I'm reading all these posts about the skulduggery and ratfucking that is just beyond the pale. Please Agnostic God let charges be brought via Federal law and, if I'm not wrong about this, fuck you Supreme Court for letting Alabama off the hook with this sort of thing which, I can't help but believe, is exactly what allowed this to happen. Because of course the fuckers in power will do what it takes to retain it. Of course they well. And of course they hate black people.

    So, yea, back to my original point about being ashamed. Despite all this, I'm back to being more ashamed than ever but let me tell you what I'm not ashamed of is black people in Alabama. I'm going home for Christmas and I'm going to tell my family (Native American/white) and friends (only ones I have left back home that aren't family are black) how much I appreciate that population and how they saved us, literally saved the state and perhaps the entire country, with their efforts.

    Thank you.
    posted by RolandOfEld at 6:32 AM on December 15, 2017 [16 favorites]


    I'm just so tired of seeing "be deferent to me or I'll take my ball and go home". It's gross and insulting when men use that tactic to silence women, and it's gross and insulting when white people do it to silence anyone praising black voters.
    posted by palomar at 6:38 AM on December 15, 2017 [25 favorites]


    If anyone can think of cool things I could do while we're there to emphasize this message then I'm all ears. I'm thinking of putting soap messages on my car windows (though I've never done that and will need to research how to do that up) saying ... something... to that end. But I'm open to ideas on how I can say thanks on a personal level while we're home. Seriously, bring it on.

    If it also happens to infuriate/offend a few pedophile supporters or status quo racist others, I'm ok with that, I can navigate that part of my home field just fine and if it sparks a conversation with family who happen to differ with me then maybe the conversation will be productive or, if not, I'll at least identify another family member to give coal to in future holiday visits.
    posted by RolandOfEld at 6:39 AM on December 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


    I hate the idea that people who vote for Democrats are doing the party a favor. People who express their will by voting are doing themselves a favor.

    Absolutely -- I mean, sure, candidates and parties must earn votes rather than assume them, but the whole thing of taking one's ball and going home if the person who is NOT TERRIBLE doesn't cater to your every whim is obnoxious. As a prominent Alabamian says about this exact issue:
    There's no such thing as someone else's war
    Your creature comforts aren't the only things worth fighting for
    posted by FelliniBlank at 6:40 AM on December 15, 2017 [10 favorites]


    I want to touch on something in rtha's comment about their friend who was helping Alabamians to vote: It sounds like voter suppression was skirting the edges of legality/plausible deniability. They were making it hard - but not impossible - for a vulnerable, traditionally disenfranchised group, who might not be taken seriously by authorities, to vote - and, by great coinkydink, they usually vote Democratic! I think that's the kind of thing Democrats are up against in different states with different populations.

    I know I will be giving some money to candidates, but I want to funnel the majority of what I can afford to donate to getting out the vote. That, IMO, is what is going to save Democrats' bacon, not slicing and dicing data to appeal to micro-populations of "likely voters" or what have you.

    The New York Times called the 2014 midterms the worst voter turnout in 72 years. "The abysmally low turnout in last week’s midterm elections — the lowest in more than seven decades — was bad for Democrats, but it was even worse for democracy. In 43 states, less than half the eligible population bothered to vote, and no state broke 60 percent." We can't afford another 2014. I think the Democrats have learned their lessons about not fielding any more namby-pamby empty suits these days, and we are energized by the Trump regime, but I'm sure obstacles to voting - not just suppression, but lack of time off, lack of dependent care, no transportation, etc. played a part in 2014 as well.

    I think if we get butts in booths, this will help the Democrats more than just about anything else. And this is a POC issue - while white people might struggle with the time off, transportation, etc. white people are not targeted for disenfranchisement. I will tell you that even in my poverty, food-stamps, pink-hair-and-pierced-nose, no-car days, I, a white woman, never faced down skepticism or obstruction at the voting booth.
    posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:18 AM on December 15, 2017 [14 favorites]


    truly the last thing i'll post, and then i will shut up: all the handwringing / deferent stories about 'economic anxiety' are also a problem! news coverage is a problem! but at the same time, suggesting that these headlines are going to be read as insults and suggesting that's a problem != an argument for "being deferent"
    posted by halation at 7:20 AM on December 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


    Also, look, if some dude blogger is like "creepy misogynist thing in the guise of criticism of white women", and I respond by saying "well I guess I won't vote Democratic then", I am blaming the candidate and screwing all the other people who did not write the thing that bothered me. At the very least, blaming the people who actually did the thing seems important, and not taking it out on people who did not write the thing.

    As with so much, this seems like a question of emphasis. On balance, I think it's way, way more important for white voters to reach out to other white voters with positive reasons that it is important to vote against racist candidates than it is to try to massage messaging about white people. I also think that strong messaging about how hard it is for voters of color to vote in the face of voter suppression is important, because it resets your priorities. If people are standing out in the weather all day to get two ballots for one race and being handed all kinds of bullshit, that doesn't make me think "gee, misogyny is totes fine" but it does make me think, "I am going to make getting out the vote and working against voter suppression my first priority".

    It's not that misogyny should always take a back seat - it's that "this is bad messaging that annoys me" is not an emergency, whereas voter suppression is an emergency.
    posted by Frowner at 7:22 AM on December 15, 2017 [14 favorites]


    I know I will be giving some money to candidates, but I want to funnel the majority of what I can afford to donate to getting out the vote.

    Spread the Vote is helping people get IDs in states where that is required.
    posted by Chrysostom at 7:24 AM on December 15, 2017 [15 favorites]


    You can argue that headlines like these shouldn't alienate voters because they're not about literal specific individuals, I suppose. I'm not sure it's a convincing argument.

    When a large majority of white people vote for candidates like Donald Trump and Roy Moore, there is a significant problem with white people that needs to be discussed head on. White people have been