If anybody needs me, I’ll be in the Angrydome.
January 16, 2018 4:32 PM   Subscribe

This is your latest installment in the Trump / U.S. Politics Megathread. Trump golfs on MLK day after urging Americans to celebrate it with volunteering; popularity among African Americans continues to plummet. Bannon subpoenaed to grand jury. Blowback continues on “Sh—holeGate”; CNN reporter expelled from press conference for asking about it. There are four years in a Presidential term of office (not many people know that).
posted by darkstar (2096 comments total) 98 users marked this as a favorite
 
“Sh—holeGate”

It's important to get it right* - the word is "Shedhole".

* It is remarkably unimportant to get the word right, despite what various designated Trump defenders would try to tell you, since the intent and the racism is blindly clear.
posted by Artw at 4:37 PM on January 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Majority of National Park Service advisory board resigns amid protest (The Hill)
A majority of the members of a National Park Service advisory board resigned their posts Monday night in protest of how Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has treated them, according to a new report.

Nine of the 12 members of the National Park System Advisory Board suddenly quit Monday, according to The Washington Post.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:37 PM on January 16, 2018 [67 favorites]


Apparently, in the same “shithole” meeting, Dear Leader also said he didn’t care what the Congressional Black Caucus had to say about immigration.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:47 PM on January 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


Nine of the 12 members of the National Park System Advisory Board suddenly quit Monday, according to The Washington Post.

Sadly, this will probably be viewed as a positive by Trump’s team. I’m assuming the NPS is allowed to carry on without a functioning advisory board, yes?
posted by Thorzdad at 4:51 PM on January 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


SF Chronicle, Hamed Aleaziz, Feds planning massive Northern California immigration sweep to strike against sanctuary laws
U.S. immigration officials have begun preparing for a major sweep in San Francisco and other Northern California cities in which federal officers would look to arrest more than 1,500 undocumented people while sending a message that immigration policy will be enforced in the sanctuary state, according to a source familiar with the operation.

Officials at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, known as ICE, declined to comment Tuesday on plans for the operation.

The campaign, centered in the Bay Area, could happen within weeks, and is expected to become the biggest enforcement action of its kind under President Trump, said the source, who requested anonymity because the plans have not been made public.
posted by zachlipton at 4:55 PM on January 16, 2018 [34 favorites]


Justice Department gives FBI files to congressional Republicans. Let the dismantling of the FBI begin!
posted by Thorzdad at 5:04 PM on January 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


The decision, which comes in response to constant Republican claims that the FBI is prejudiced against Donald Trump, thrills Republicans. It gives them unfettered access to information they can use to paint the agency in any way they want, along with the opportunity to interfere with the Trump–Russia investigation directly.

I'm so tired. I'm so very, very tired. We've descended so far down into tribalism that anything goes. Any norm may be broken, any line can be crossed, any deviancy normalized, so long as it benefits the red team. Democracy dies not with a bang, or with a whimper, but in the vengeful screams of the fans in the stands.
posted by Talez at 5:09 PM on January 16, 2018 [131 favorites]


We've descended so far down into tribalism that anything goes. Any norm may be broken, any line can be crossed, any deviancy normalized, so long as it benefits the red team. Democracy dies not with a bang, or with a whimper, but in the vengeful screams of the fans in the stands.

This isn't tribalism (and dear god, if there's any concept that needs to die in a fire, it's that one.) This is what happens when a group signs a Faustian bargain for power, choosing to indulge in the bigotries of a group whose portion of the populace is on the decline. The bill is coming due now, and they are desperate to hold on to avoid paying it.
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:15 PM on January 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


You have to wonder just how bad things have to get before you seriously start hearing the word “treason” being thrown around in places where it matters.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:16 PM on January 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


Wait Bannon was under testimony for over 10 hours?

That’s

A lot
posted by The Whelk at 5:16 PM on January 16, 2018 [49 favorites]


"Close to 12 hours", and they're talking about making him come back again "soon."

Even more amazingly, I've seen reports that he was only wearing one shirt today.
posted by zachlipton at 5:21 PM on January 16, 2018 [55 favorites]


Looks like he doubled down and refused to answer questions
posted by The Whelk at 5:22 PM on January 16, 2018


Shutdown update:
Here’s what House GOP leaders are pitching tonight:

— CR until Feb. 16th.

— A full six-year CHIP reauthorization.

—Delay of three Obamacare taxes: med device (2 years), HIT (1 year starting in 2019; and Cadillac (2 years).

Vote could happen on Thursday
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:28 PM on January 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


You have to wonder just how bad things have to get before you seriously start hearing the word “treason” being thrown around in places where it matters.

We are already there (autoplay video warning, sorry)
posted by thelonius at 5:31 PM on January 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


'Total free-for-all' as Bannon clashes with Intel members (The Hill)
Former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon on Tuesday rocketed to the center of the public controversy surrounding the Trump campaign and Russia.

The onetime Breitbart mogul now faces multiple subpoenas — from Capitol Hill and special counsel Robert Mueller — stemming from investigations of Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election.

The House Intelligence Committee issued a pair of subpoenas, for both documents and testimony, when Bannon declined to answer some questions during an all-day interview on Tuesday, according to multiple sources.

Earlier in the day, The New York Times reported that Mueller last week served Bannon a separate grand jury subpoena. News of that subpoena broke just hours after Bannon walked into the Intelligence Committee’s secure spaces.

Multiple sources told The Hill that Bannon indicated to lawmakers that he would answer questions about the Trump campaign, but not about his work on the transition team or in the White House. Bannon, alongside his lawyer, said he would only answer those questions when he speaks to Mueller.

That stance infuriated lawmakers. Sources described the meeting as a “total free-for-all” and “brutal.” “He doesn’t have any friends in that room,” one source said. ...

According to a report in Politico, also citing a single source, Bannon refused to discuss anything about his time in the White House or during the transition after the election — but did not formally invoke executive privilege.

Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) confirmed to reporters that he authorized the congressional subpoenas, saying, “That’s how the rules work.”

According to multiple sources, Bannon did not immediately comply with the subpoenas, which were for both testimony and documents.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:35 PM on January 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


They're talking about Bannon claiming blanket executive privilege for things that happened during the transition. That's completely invalid. Obama was still the "executive" in "executive privilege" during that period of time.

I can't imagine he'll try that bullshit with Mueller? It's absurd.
posted by Justinian at 5:36 PM on January 16, 2018 [73 favorites]


According to multiple sources, Bannon did not immediately comply with the subpoenas, which were for both testimony and documents.

The remedy for this is an immediate criminal referral to DOJ for a contempt of Congress charge, not that Republicans will do such a thing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:43 PM on January 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


I can't imagine he'll try that bullshit with Mueller? It's absurd.

Oh, I can imagine him trying it. Just not succeeding.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:49 PM on January 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


The remedy for this is an immediate criminal referral to DOJ for a contempt of Congress charge, not that Republicans will do such a thing.

I dunno. Having Justice lock Bannon up somewhere exremely secure before he can go in front of Mueller sounds like a dandy plan.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:51 PM on January 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


"Close to 12 hours", and they're talking about making him come back again "soon."

More from Fox News's Chad Pergram @ChadPergram:
GOP SC Rep & Intel Cmte mbr Trey Gowdy on Fox on Steve Bannon's appearance today: It was the most tortured analysis of executive privilege I’ve ever seen

Top Dem on Intel Cmte Schiff says nearly 12 hr session with Bannon was a "long day." Described the scope of the WH's gag order for Bannon not to talk as "breathtaking." Says WH's claim on behalf of Bannon "is breathtaking."

GOP TX Rep & Intel Cmte mbr Conaway on Bannon appearance where he refused to answer questions: "We’re going to get these answers..This witness is not an executive..we have additional questions.

GOP SC Rep Gowdy on Bannon's appearance before Intel Cmte: We learned about a new privilege that before today did not exist..it's an executive privilege that covers communications during transitions, while you work at the WH & communications after you leave the WH

GOP SC Rep Gowdy on Bannon at Hse Intel Cmte today: It was steve bannon who used the word treason and unpatriotic. Those are particularly hard accusations to level..so you're going to be asked about it
And because this is Fox, Pergram adds, "GOP SC Rep Gowdy: The mainstream media could give a damn less about what happened in Benghazi. They're really interested in what happened in Russia"
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:56 PM on January 16, 2018 [21 favorites]


Nine of the 12 members of the National Park System Advisory Board suddenly quit Monday, according to The Washington Post.

Sadly, this will probably be viewed as a positive by Trump’s team. I’m assuming the NPS is allowed to carry on without a functioning advisory board, yes?


It's scope is "solely advisory" so it won't necessarily affect day to day running of the NPS. However, some programs carried out under the Advisory Board are dead in the water. For example, the designation of National Historic Landmarks runs through the Advisory Board and its National Historic Landmarks Committee. That committee has also not met since Fall 2016, so there have been no new NHLs designated since Sally Jewell left in January 2017...and there won't be for the foreseeable future. I've got a nomination sitting in limbo.
posted by Preserver at 6:03 PM on January 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

GOP HOLD in South Carolina House 99, 56-44. This was about a 10% swing to the Dems from 2016 presidential margin.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on January 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


Eh, the House Intel Committee wants to get its hands on the Bannon testimony and documents before Mueller does so they can carry on discrediting Mueller and the Russia investigation.
posted by notyou at 6:07 PM on January 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


From the Senate Judiciary Committee, Dept. of Homeland Security oversight hearing earlier today.

Senator Cory Booker Presses DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen

First couple minutes Sen. Booker is asking prepared questions but by 3 minutes in, the earlier hearing events (Sec. Nielsen's selective memory antics (about shithole comments)) were reverberating too strongly inside of Booker for him not to abandon his questions and try to educate about racism, the impact of words and complicity as it moves from schooling to scolding ... well worth watching.
posted by phoque at 6:11 PM on January 16, 2018 [55 favorites]


Mod note: This is your regular new-thread reminder to keep things focused and skip the trash talk and derails. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:17 PM on January 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


“GOP SC Rep Gowdy: The mainstream media could give a damn less about what happened in Benghazi. They're really interested in what happened in Russia"


As is frickin’ appropriate!

Benghazi was an isolated event, a coordinated attack on an embassy by a group of terrorists in which four people were killed. It merited an investigation — which it has had, over, and over and over again. But it does not merit perpetual investigations used as an electioneering tool and a partisan bludgeon against a political opponent who had nothing to do with the attack, despite the GOP’s desperate, repeated attempts to use it as such.

The Russia investigation, on the other hand, is trying to determine whether the despotic leader of an adversarial country gamed our electoral system to shut out a US Presidential candidate he didn’t want, and whether the candidate that won the race may have been colluding with the despot to do it. Something rather at the heart of the survival of our democracy.

No shit the media’s more interested in the latter.
posted by darkstar at 6:25 PM on January 16, 2018 [117 favorites]


Daily Beast, Betsy Woodruff, Steve Bannon Will Tell All to Robert Mueller, Source Says
“Mueller will hear everything Bannon has to say,” said the source, who is familiar with Bannon’s thinking.

During a closed-door hearing before the House intelligence committee today, Bannon reportedly told lawmakers that President Donald Trump has invoked broad executive privilege for the purposes of Congressional inquiries. Because of that, Bannon refused to answer committee members’ questions about what happened during the presidential transition and in the White House.

This sweeping understanding of privilege will not impact what Bannon tells Mueller’s team, according to our source.
These people all seem to have fascinating ideas of what executive privilege means.
posted by zachlipton at 6:43 PM on January 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


Here’s what House GOP leaders are pitching tonight:

Sounds like an excellent deal for Democrats. They get CHIP funding for 6 years and only give up a couple of Obamacare taxes. The Obamacare taxes make no difference to the implementation of Obamacare. They just go into the general revenue fund anyway and were put in place just to make the ACA revenue neutral for scoring purposes. Makes no difference if Republicans delay them. Just more deficit spending on the Republican side.

And Republicans kick the can down the road for another month when Democrats can get another concession from Republicans -- DACA. One step at a time.
posted by JackFlash at 6:43 PM on January 16, 2018 [32 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

GOP HOLD in Wisconsin AD-58, 57-43. This was about a 25% swing to the Dems from 2016 presidential margin.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:52 PM on January 16, 2018 [44 favorites]


And Republicans kick the can down the road for another month when Democrats can get another concession from Republicans -- DACA. One step at a time.

I completely agree that delaying those taxes makes no real difference to anything although I think the cadillac plan tax is a good one. But I don't know that it's an excellent deal... more of a mediocre one? Why should Democrats have to give any concessions for CHIP funding when it would so obviously overwhelmingly pass cleanly if it were brought to the floor?

It might make sense to do it just 'cause those kids need health care and it will remove this issue and clear the table for, as you say, DACA. But getting any concessions for something both parties want is a decent deal for Republicans. Consider: given both parties want CHIP reauthorized what are the concessions Democrats are getting.? It can't be the CHIP reauth itself, that's bipartisan.
posted by Justinian at 6:59 PM on January 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


These people all seem to have fascinating ideas of what executive privilege means.

If by 'fascinating' is meant 'divine right of kings'.

Unfortunately for the early-modern apologists, we demand democratic accountability for the actions and decision-making processes of our elected leaders.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:59 PM on January 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


My latest drawing of Trump, using a very unsubtle metaphor for the shithole his mouth is.

I get the sense that his provocations have become almost expected now, which would in part explain how incidents both past and present that would sink almost any politician seem to do nothing to him. His vileness has become so normalized that it's part of the contemporary firmament now.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 7:14 PM on January 16, 2018 [43 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

GOP HOLD in Iowa House 6, 55-44. This is about a 19 point swing to the Dems compared to the 2016 presidential margin.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:17 PM on January 16, 2018 [38 favorites]


I don't know why I've wasted all my time regularly running and training for distance endurance events you guys. I should have just been laying in bed eating cheeseburgers.

Apparently I'm not a stable genius.

Also: good on Mueller for holding Bannon's subpoena with a grand jury.
posted by floweredfish at 7:19 PM on January 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


GOP SC Rep Gowdy: The mainstream media could give a damn less about what happened in Benghazi. They're really interested in what happened in Russia

And Gowdy could give a damn less about the truth of anything. He's really interested in grandstanding for the media. That and his unhealthy fixation on how everybody is a filthy liar who lies about everything, but he, Trey Gowdy, Witchsmeller Pursuivant, sees all and will cleanse the blasphemers with fire!

Dude has some issues, is what I'm saying.

The guy is obviously not on our side, but I don't think he's exactly on their side either.
posted by dirge at 7:19 PM on January 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


There are a lot of terrifying things going on, but the assault on federal lands (NPS, BLM, etc) keeps me up at night because it will be hard to reverse once those are privatized. Even if a new administration exercises eminent domain to take them back, once you set up a mine or drill for oil, you've already irreversibly changed the environment.
posted by AFABulous at 7:20 PM on January 16, 2018 [56 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

Dem GAIN in Wisconsin Senate 10, 54-48. That's about a 28 point swing to the Dems from the 2016 presidential margin. GOP control of WI Senate cut to 18-14.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:23 PM on January 16, 2018 [125 favorites]


Politico, Dan Diamond and Jennifer Haberkorn, Administration to expand ‘conscience’ protections for health providers
The Trump administration is planning new protections for health workers who don't want to perform abortions, refuse to treat transgender patients based on their gender identity or provide other services for which they have moral objections.

Under a proposed rule — which has been closely guarded at HHS and is now under review by the White House — the HHS office in charge of civil rights would be empowered to further shield these workers and punish organizations that don’t allow them to express their moral objections, according to sources on and off the Hill.
...
Severino — the HHS civil rights chief — has a long record of advocating for religious groups and arguing against LGBT protections, such as serving as counsel in court battles opposing same-sex marriage. Severino also has been a strong critic of providing procedures to transgender patients seeking to transition.
What the actual fuck?
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on January 16, 2018 [62 favorites]


Why should Democrats have to give any concessions for CHIP funding when it would so obviously overwhelmingly pass cleanly if it were brought to the floor?

There's a lot if "if" in there. If there were so much bipartisan support, why did CHIP funding expire almost four months ago?

Democrats want CHIP funded. A win is a win. And 30 days from now we are right back exactly where we are now, but with CHIP instead of without CHIP.

(This is all assuming that the reporting is correct on the deal and there are not some hidden poison pills.)
posted by JackFlash at 7:24 PM on January 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


His vileness has become so normalized that it's part of the contemporary firmament now

I keep coming back to that Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns gets a physical and is told that he has every disease known to man, and they all kind of keep each other in check. The scandals and leaks and offensive quotes come so fast and steady that nobody is ever able to focus on any one issue.

In DJT's case I don't think it's planned, more like an inevitable byproduct of his character and general ineptitude, but it's interesting how it fits in with Surkov and the Russian Politics Of Confusion strategy.
posted by mannequito at 7:28 PM on January 16, 2018 [22 favorites]


What the actual fuck?

Natural extension of the Republican strategy to supersede the laws of man for right wing Christians, who of course are the only group who's 'strongly felt religious beliefs' are valid. The Hobby Lobby decision opened the door, and now they're welding Pandora's Box open.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:33 PM on January 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


Is the poison pill not that people who came to the US as children are being faced with leaving their (yes, their!) country because of fascist divide-and-conquer tactics?

We must all hang together, else we will all. hang. separately.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:34 PM on January 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


Why should Democrats have to give any concessions for CHIP funding when it would so obviously overwhelmingly pass cleanly if it were brought to the floor?

I think one of the most damaging things in politics is the inability to force floor votes for things like this. CHIP could pass, hell Garland could have been seated, even with a Republican majority, but McConnell and the committees hold all the cards. I was shocked to learn that the Dems could force a net neutrality vote, it's a special circumstance that I'm amazed the Republicans didn't lock down when it could be used against them.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:34 PM on January 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


“Either America is a nation of immigrants or it is a nation of blood and soil. It cannot be both.“

Dara Lind, Vox: Trump is making the racist subtext text
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:35 PM on January 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


For those looking for one, the current venting thread.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:35 PM on January 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


You CAN force a bill to the floor via discharge petition, but there already has to be a bill in committee.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:37 PM on January 16, 2018


Wooo! Wisconsin flipped a special election seat in the state senate today! That news article says commanding lead, but the republican has already conceded. The Democratic margin may be as much as 20 points- in 2016 the district went Republican by 34 points.
posted by rockindata at 7:42 PM on January 16, 2018 [39 favorites]


(HuffPo) Trump Admin To Transgender Kids: We Won’t Deal With Your Civil Rights Complaints Exclusive: Transgender students are filing discrimination complaints with the Office for Civil Rights, but the office says these issues fall outside its purview.
posted by AFABulous at 7:43 PM on January 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


Dem GAIN in Wisconsin Senate 10, 54-48

YAY YAY I'M SO HAPPY GO PATTY

Patty Schachtner is from my hometown and she is friends with my parents. Every time I talked to my mom for the past several weeks she told about how evil Jarchow is and how he is a Koch puppet and how he wants to kill all the wolves etc. I am so happy to see a sliver of good news from my beloved Badger State, especially with the governor of my current home (KY) telling everyone this evening that he is going to take a chain saw and cut the fuck out of everything important.
posted by chaoticgood at 7:46 PM on January 16, 2018 [59 favorites]


The Kochs dumped about $40K into that WI SD-10 race, too. That's a good chunk for a state senate race.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:49 PM on January 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


Go Badgers!
posted by notyou at 7:49 PM on January 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


The scandals and leaks and offensive quotes come so fast and steady that nobody is ever able to focus on any one issue.

a.k.a. Corporate News not informing the public any more than a countdown clock informs about a space program. It was broken well before Trump, but in addition to not wanting a way to deal with the Klownwig administration, it's likely they can't think of one.
posted by petebest at 7:51 PM on January 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

GOP HOLD in Wisconsin Assembly 58, 57-43. This is about a 25 point swing to the Dems compared to the 2016 presidential margin.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on January 16, 2018 [32 favorites]


Also, there was some concern in the last thread about the WI AD-66 race, but the unopposed Dem did win.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:58 PM on January 16, 2018 [16 favorites]


As always, but it's worth repeating, you're a saint, Chrysostom. Thanks!
posted by msalt at 8:05 PM on January 16, 2018 [44 favorites]


As always, the * is a butt hole.
posted by OverlappingElvis at 8:08 PM on January 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


What's really rich about Bannon refusing to answer questions at the House Intel hearing today is that, let us remember, he blabbed his fucking head off nonstop about the Trump Tower meeting and all sorts of shit for the Wolff book! Man, if I were a committee member, I'd be pissed.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:11 PM on January 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


Wolff says he has tapes, they can subpoena those ....
posted by mbo at 8:13 PM on January 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


I don't think having the federal government subpoenaing a journalist's notes is the precedent you want to be setting at this particular moment.
posted by zachlipton at 8:17 PM on January 16, 2018 [43 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate:
-- Data Orbital poll for the AZ GOP nom has McSally 31, Arpaio 22, Ward 19. Only the second poll so far, this one shows a wider McSally lead than the first.

-- After considerable waffling, former MN gov Tim Pawlenty has said he definitely won't run for either Senate seat in 2018 (possibly angling at a governor run). GOP has two seats to find sacrificial lambs for, so far only a state Senator running (and noises from Michele Bachmann).
** 2018 House:
-- DKE has their House Vulnerability Index up. This predicts, with decent accuracy, what order House seats would flip.

-- PPP poll has Devin Nunes [CA-22] up 50-45 versus a generic Dem.
** Odds & ends -- Gallup analysis finds Trump popularity 9-14 points below what you would expect based on polling on the economy.

** Special elections results:

Busy night on the special elections front. Here's a recap of winners and how the Dem did relative to the district's margin in the presidential race:
* SC HD-28: GOP hold, ran unopposed
* SC HD-99: GOP hold, D+10

* IA HD-06: GOP hold, D+19

* WI AD-58: GOP hold, D+25
* WI AD-66: Dem hold, ran unopposed
* WI SD-10: Dem gain, D+28
So, the upshot is that Dems contested in four of five quite red districts, flipped one, and seriously overperformed in the other three. The Wisconsin Senate result also puts Democrats in a reasonable position to take control in 2018.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:22 PM on January 16, 2018 [59 favorites]


OMG, that speech... Gorgeous. Beautiful. Listening to that is like when you've had a headache hanging on and getting worse for hours and finally it occurs to you, "I could take an ibuprophen!" and you do. Ten minutes later when it kicks in and the vise on your head releases, that's how it feels when you hear Cory Booker talking sweet sense. Thank you, phoque.
posted by Don Pepino at 8:33 PM on January 16, 2018 [22 favorites]


There are a lot of terrifying things going on, but the assault on federal lands (NPS, BLM, etc) keeps me up at night because it will be hard to reverse once those are privatized. Even if a new administration exercises eminent domain to take them back, once you set up a mine or drill for oil, you've already irreversibly changed the environment.

A friend and I were recently poking around Canyons of the Ancients National Monument in southwest Colorado, just north of Four Corners, when we ran across this sign. The "sensitive resource" on Mockingbird Mesa they're talking about is a large CO2 processing plant built and run by a company called Kinder Morgan. We watched a couple of their trucks pass us on the way to and from the plant -- they're welcome on that stretch of public land, but we were not.

Nothing illegal going on (that I know of) -- Kinder Morgan was awarded a lease by BLM in 2006 to build and operate that plant, there was a window for public comment and everything. Ultimately my friend and I were just naïve -- we assumed that phrases like "public land" and "national monument" meant that the area was protected and reserved for the use of citizens, and that private companies looking to make a profit would have to do it somewhere else. And a lot of BLM land is that, sure. But monument or not, a lot of this land is also quite readily available for leasing to oil and gas companies right now. That's never not been the case. The only thing that's ever prevented it has been local residents putting up enough of a fuss to make the interested companies look elsewhere.

To be clear, I'm not from the area, have only recently started visiting these places, and I'm far from an expert on all this. I'm sure we have folks in these threads who know much more about BLM and drilling / mining leases and all of the relevant law and policy. My takeaway was just that, when it comes to stuff like the shrinking of national monuments like Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante, it's not really a binary question of, will private companies be able to drill or mine there or not. They already can, and in plenty of places (like Canyons of the Ancients) they've been there for years and it's you who's not welcome there. There's just been a figleaf that BLM is managing that land on behalf of American citizens, so there's some small degree of accountability for the private companies involved and at least a token nod to public opinion. Shrinking these monuments means that BLM goes from being an absentee landlord to being a discount clearinghouse auctioning off formerly-public land to the highest bidder, and neither BLM nor the new owners will bear any real responsibility for what happens on those lands in the future.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 8:50 PM on January 16, 2018 [30 favorites]


I am trying to go on a politics diet but I just had to come here to say...

239 pounds? TWO HUNDRED THIRTY NINE POUNDS??? That is SUCH a plainly obvious lie, literally anyone who has ever seen a picture of Trump (not wearing his usual long formless coat) and knows roughly how much tall male human beings weigh KNOWS it's a lie, and it's an additional finger in the eye that his BMI works out to 29.9, exactly 0.1 points short of clinical obesity. And there is no way he is actually 6'3", and also no way he is any less than 280 pounds. I really don't care how much a politician weighs, it's totally his business and doesn't really affect his presidenting, but the bald-faced lie that's just blindly repeated by the media drives me insane. It's just so mind-bogglingly sycophantic to lie about something that's plainly obvious to anyone with eyes. The emperor is fat and has no clothes!
posted by miyabo at 8:53 PM on January 16, 2018 [66 favorites]


Paul Ryan should be getting nervous.

One of the most frustrating things about our current hellhole loop track situation to me is that even the best case resolution one could possibly hope for leaves a whole lot of dirty, complicit, corrupt traitors to our nation, its people, and its ideals to walk away unscathed and probably get re-elected. That walking monument to mediocrity, that Deepak Chopra of public policy, that sentient backwards baseball cap, will almost certainly be one.
posted by middleclasstool at 8:56 PM on January 16, 2018 [30 favorites]


"Steve Bannon Will Tell All to Robert Mueller, Source Says"

I like how the Trumpists hired a noted arsonist who loves to burn shit down, and are now shocked and upset that he's lighting their house on fire too.

(But I didn't think the leopards would eat MY face! wails Trump)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:57 PM on January 16, 2018 [23 favorites]


The house committee with Nunes on it might as well be in a room with Trump and Putin. This is the same Devon Nunes who went running to Trump at midnight playing boy spy. Nunes is trying to get advance Intel -- the guy has been stonewalling the investigation for the last year and only now is he issuing subpoenas? Nunes is likely as dirty as Trump, so as much as I hate Bannon, testifying to Mueller first and delaying the house committee is warranted.
posted by benzenedream at 9:00 PM on January 16, 2018 [28 favorites]


The "sensitive resource" on Mockingbird Mesa they're talking about is a large CO2 processing plant built and run by a company called Kinder Morgan. We watched a couple of their trucks pass us on the way to and from the plant -- they're welcome on that stretch of public land, but we were not.

It's both simpler and more complicated than that.

Full disclosure, I live ~50 miles from that mesa, and a friend works for KM. I applied for a job with them, and didn't get it.

All of the land out west has several components to it. When you buy land, you may not get all of them. For example, water rights - you might own the land, but the rain and snow that falls on it may belong to someone else, meaning that you cannot collect or retain it. Mineral rights are similar. You may own the surface land, but you won't necessarily own whats underneath.

This is how you get a fracking pad built next to a high school.

You'll note that Mockingbird isn't closed off - foot and horse traffic is allowed. ATV/4x4/Motorcycle is not. So it's not accurate to say you had no rights there.

Anyway, KM owns mineral rights that in some cases predate the Monument or even BLM protection. In those cases, they are grandfathered in. The Govt. does some wheeling and dealing to try to manage all of the land uses - ranching, recreation, extraction - and to a large extent does it reasonably well. KM may have given up rights in the WETA area, for example, in order to get some in that area. This is how the Bears Ears monument even happened, and it took a long time, and was highly controversial.

Broadly, I am in favor of the designated use approach. I don't like cows where I'm hunting, I don't like hunters where I'm biking, I don't like bikers where I'm hiking, I don't like hikers where I'm jeeping. You get the idea.

I belong to an organization that advocates for good sense land management. There's lots of space, and using it smartly protects and allows for all the various uses to coexist. I don't want blanket bans on any particular activity - I want smart policies, transparently arrived at, and fairly implemented.

Anyway, the problem isn't government doing what government does. It's Trump's government doing what Trump does.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 10:36 PM on January 16, 2018 [58 favorites]


239 pounds? TWO HUNDRED THIRTY NINE POUNDS??? That is SUCH a plainly obvious lie, literally anyone who has ever seen a picture of Trump (not wearing his usual long formless coat) and knows roughly how much tall male human beings weigh KNOWS it's a lie, and it's an additional finger in the eye that his BMI works out to 29.9, exactly 0.1 points short of clinical obesity.

Agreed. I'm several inches shorter than Trump, and I weigh 230 pounds. I'm a bit fat, but just comparing myself to him, Trump is obviously carrying considerably more fat on his frame than I am. This is a transparent lie, like the crowd sizes at his inauguration, and one has to presume that the rest of the "medical report" is also a lie, including the cognitive test. It's disappointing that news outlets have been reporting this transparent lie without challenge.

As with the other transparent lies from the Trump administration, I assume this serves a group-consolidation function. Every person who repeats this lie, from White House officials to your racist uncle on Facebook, pledges their loyalty to Trump over the obvious facts by repeating it, and psychologically commits themselves deeper to the bizarro-land of Trumpism with each repetition. To acknowledge such a stupid, transparent, insignificant lie means admitting the nihilism of their worldview. So each big stupid lie they echo paves the way for the next one.

And, of course, the other function the transparent, stupid lie serves is to distract from the less easily provable but more significant lie, which is the lie about the cognitive test. Unlike Trump's weight, it's not possible to prove that the cognitive test is a lie, only infer it from the other lie. And since it can't be easily proved, and asserting it without proof would be irresponsible, media outlets can focus on the insignificant, obvious lie. Media bosses can feel confident they've had their journalists cover the president's habit of lying to the public, Trumpists can crow about the unfair focus of the media on Trump's claims, and the important question of the president's psychological fitness for office is obscured.

I think the only solution is to draw the connection between these two lies very clearly. "You are 240 pounds yourself, and you're clearly less heavy than Trump. It's obvious this is a lie, your own body is the testament. That doctor is willing to lie to the American public about the president's health. Did he lie about the cognitive test, too? Is the president's 'perfect score' actually a failing grade?"
posted by biogeo at 10:59 PM on January 16, 2018 [57 favorites]


Wolff says he has tapes, they can subpoena those ....

Hunh. Noting that you only get to subpoena a journalist's sources and notes if there's no other way to get the information, I wonder if that's motivating the Bannon subpoena, as opposed to negotiating voluntary testimony like everybody else.

If Mueller wants a judge to subpoena Wolff, he'll have to establish that he's exhausted his options, which include, obviously, getting what he needs directly from Bannon. A voluntary interview is not going to tick that box.
posted by dirge at 11:27 PM on January 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


You'll note that Mockingbird isn't closed off - foot and horse traffic is allowed. ATV/4x4/Motorcycle is not. So it's not accurate to say you had no rights there.

Thanks for weighing in Pogo, your perspective is much appreciated. We were driving so we had to turn around. (The pickups they were using were pretty big, and the road fairly narrow, so by 'foot and horse traffic' I'm guessing they meant 'only people who can get off the road and out of the way'.)

I'm fine with transparent and fair land management, and beyond the irritation at finding our path through what we thought was public land effectively blocked, I don't necessarily have any problem with Kinder Morgan or anyone else who's being a good neighbor in these spaces. My point was just that whatever impact drilling and mining might have on the land isn't a hypothetical concern, there's plenty of that activity taking place already, and it's only BLM being a responsible steward of public lands (along with whatever pressure the local community can bring to bear) that keeps private interests in check.

Unfortuantely BLM under Zinke appears to be in fuck-the-public-trust, monetize-all-the-things mode, which is obviously less than ideal. I doubt making sure that private companies aren't ruining public lands is high on Zinke's list of priorities, not while there's money to be made. And chopping off half of Bears Ears or Grand Escalante and selling it outright seems like a worst-case scenario to me -- lands held in trust on behalf of American citizens end up in private hands, habitats and heritage sites are blocked off at best and destroyed outright at worst, local communities lose most of their leverage, private companies lose any incentive to be good neighbors, and the government shrugs and pockets the profits and walks away.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 12:18 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Wolff says he has tapes, they can subpoena those ....

Shit Wolff might just put give them to him.
posted by fshgrl at 12:42 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Wolff isn't hiding his source, we know it's Bannon ... nor is he hiding what he said, it's in the book, the only time the tapes would come into play would be if Bannon claimed he didn't say what is in the book, I can't see how there's an issue of journalistic privilege here

So ... who's going to be the first to build a set of scales into a podium?
posted by mbo at 1:24 AM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


As with the other transparent lies from the Trump administration, I assume this serves a group-consolidation function. Every person who repeats this lie, from White House officials to your racist uncle on Facebook, pledges their loyalty to Trump over the obvious facts by repeating it, and psychologically commits themselves deeper to the bizarro-land of Trumpism with each repetition. To acknowledge such a stupid, transparent, insignificant lie means admitting the nihilism of their worldview. So each big stupid lie they echo paves the way for the next one.

This is the classic case of the totalitarian lie as described by Arendt and others. To the outsider it appears bewildering and incoherent, but it serves an unseen purpose.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:45 AM on January 17, 2018 [109 favorites]


One of the flaws of cognitive screening tools such as the MOCA is that you can improve your score theough knowledge of the questions in advance. In practice this may be that if you ask someone to remember the standard questions one too many times they may actually learn to recall BALL CAR MAN but this does not reflect the short term memory it is meant to
test.

Anyway, it is kind of irrelevant and weirdly invasive to read the results of the medical exam (even though it's probably all lies) - having a normal TSH doesn't make him competent.
posted by chiquitita at 4:21 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


I didn't find the medical exam a very interesting subject: Trump needs to be impeached and to be punished for his crimes. I don't care if he does what he does because he is evil and dumb or because he is evil and demented. It's racist, misogynist, wrong and criminal regardless.
BUT I heard about it on one of the late night shows and I am now worried by the facts that the doctor at Walter Reed is (obviously) lying. 20/30 vision??? That just doesn't make sense. Others have commented on the weight. My mother was hospitalized today, and while we were talking about her heart, the doctor said almost everyone above a certain age has some cardiovascular issues (and my mum's are managed, that wasn't why we were there). I also worry about the obviously trumpian genes quip. How can this happen? Bribery? Threats? I didn't expect them to expose Trump, but this is so over the top I just can't…
posted by mumimor at 4:51 AM on January 17, 2018 [21 favorites]


I also worry about the obviously trumpian genes quip. How can this happen? Bribery? Threats? I didn't expect them to expose Trump, but this is so over the top I just can't…

Yes, the genes comment was odd. I've only seen the short summary of it on the BBC, but the wording of it was oddly Trumpian. The Dr may have been making a small joke with it, or just trolling us.
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 5:04 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Athletes Who Are the Same Size as Donald Trump (Slightly NSFW)
posted by octothorpe at 5:05 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


“Donald Trump weighs 239lb” translates into nothing but “this is our country now”. How much Trump weighs is as irrelevant as what crimes he and his associates commit.
posted by acb at 5:06 AM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]




The Presidential Physical has typically been propaganda on how strong and virile the president is. Ronnie had a clean bill of mental health despite in retrospect having a barely functioning Hippocampus. Hell, W got given a "top 2% fitness" mark.

It's all propaganda for the international stage. The doctor is doing what is customary.
posted by Talez at 5:19 AM on January 17, 2018 [42 favorites]


@ThePlumLineGS (Greg Sargent - WaPo)
New PBS/NPR/Marist poll:

68% say Mueller should be allowed to finish probe

Americans say by 48-28 that the probe has been fair

57 percent have quite a lot (33) or a great deal (24) of confidence in FBI

That alt-narrative is working out really well!

Poll: Most Americans want Robert Mueller to complete his Russia probe
posted by chris24 at 5:19 AM on January 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


The physical is deeply weird, but what is bothering me more than the particulars of the physical is that it is so widely doubted. Either a) the doctor is lying or carefully omitting essential information or b) the large number of people who doubt the doctor are wrong. I don't know how many tweets I've seen this morning comparing Trump's physique to that of somebody else with the supposed same height and weight. A lot of people just don't believe it. I don't know if I believe it. And given that this relates to the POTUS's fitness to serve, the number of non-believers seems to be significant.
posted by angrycat at 5:19 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Despite the feeling that it's more than likely a crock anyway, I still think it's kind of goofy to compare athletes in particular, in the same height/weight range - muscle is spectacularly more dense than fat by the pound so of course the really fit guy is going to be smaller even if the weight is correct. This is a more realistic (mostly) comparison, perhaps.
posted by miratime at 5:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


Hell, W got given a "top 2% fitness" mark.

This factoid is less preposterous, though. W was a fairly avid cyclist, and he had a fondness for clearing his own brush; both of which are considerably more physically taxing than a round of golf. He was 62 when he left office and was probably as fit as is reasonable to expect for an executive of that age.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 5:44 AM on January 17, 2018 [40 favorites]


Syria crisis: Why Turkey is poised to attack Kurdish enclave Afrin, Selin Girit, BBC
"If the US really forms such a border force, then there will be a totally different equation in Syria," says Ahmet Kasim Han, an academic on international relations.

"This would point to a process that could potentially end with the forming of a YPG-PKK state in the north of Syria. Washington should have known that Turkey would react."

....

"In the unlikely event of Turkey reaching an agreement with Russia, along with a tacit approval of the Syrian regime, then that would mean a watershed event in Turkey's relations not only with Russia but also with the West," Mr Han says.

"If Turkey's foreign policy moves closer to Russia as such, we could probably start talking of a new world order and a whole new relationship between Nato and Turkey," he says.
Ahmet Kasim Han is a professor at Kadir Has University in Turkey.
posted by nangar at 5:49 AM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


...more physically taxing than a round of golf.

A round of golf played entirely with golf carts.
posted by PenDevil at 5:49 AM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


and I am now worried by the facts that the doctor at Walter Reed is (obviously) lying.

I think you can’t get an honest public assessment of a physical given about a man his doctor has sworn an oath to obey the orders of.
posted by corb at 6:01 AM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


It's all propaganda for the international stage. The doctor is doing what is customary.

The sad part is that even the propaganda declares that president is, by a margin of one pound, not technically obese.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:04 AM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


A round of golf played entirely with golf carts.

Wherein he drives the cart on the greens.
posted by box at 6:06 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


I feel like falsifying one's weight should be the one freebie lie everyone gets, considering how shitty and personal Americans can be about it. Not that I'm casting any shade here at MeFi! Just that, you know, it's difficult to touch the subject without adding to pain for a lot of at fat people who aren't the president.

And look, if a 100% plausible number had been given, people here may have stayed quiet about it (nothing to criticize about honesty, yeah?) But in the world out there, way too many would try using that number as a weapon. Again, the cruelty would affect way more individuals, while hardly hurting the prez and his support at all.

(I can also imagine a scenario where the doctor had said, his face hollow and shaking, that the president weighs 95 pounds. That, to me, would be acceptable grounds for mockery. But not this sort of mere fudgery.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:13 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mod note: Folks, let's drop the haha-he's-fat stuff. If you need to discuss the doctor's findings, try to find a way to do it productively (is it important to the conversation?), and without gratuitously insulting a swathe of other people.
posted by taz (staff) at 6:22 AM on January 17, 2018 [34 favorites]


Yeah, as somebody who is currently encased in bounteous clouds of fluffy adiposity, I find those side-by-side pictures of Trump next to, like, The Rock or whoever laughably unconvincing. Of course that ripped-out-of-his-mind dude weighs a ton, he's HUGE! Athlete arms probably weigh as much as Trump legs.
posted by Don Pepino at 6:38 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


On the SD-10 upset last night. Esoteric is Jeff from DecisionDesk, which is typically a good, fair election analysis firm even though they're Republican and Jeff's a NRO contributor. Patty not only outperformed Trump by 28 points, she did so against a strong incumbent in a district that hadn't gone D in 18 years.

@EsotericCD
Hard to understate just how disastrous a sign for 2018 the GOP's loss in the WI state Senate special election (SD-10 in Western WI) is. Harsdorf an incumbent who made this seat look stronger for GOP than it naturally is, but still, a 9pt loss among Trump's core vote? DOOM.
-The improvement (overperformance) in the Democratic vote share in the special elections last night was something like D+20. At a certain point "oh special elections are just weird" and "but the GOP still held (most of) the seats" starts to sound silly.

---

And from longtime conservative midwest radio host and now NeverTrumper Charlie Sykes.

@SykesCharlie
Genuinely stunning setback for GOP in Wisconsin. Hard to overstate the anxiety this will cause...
posted by chris24 at 6:40 AM on January 17, 2018 [55 favorites]


The thing is, the presidential physical would have been perfectly fine* without all the details. We don't need to know how much Trump weighs. We don't need to know that he is fit despite him not exercising or speculation about which superlative best fits his genes. It's all for show, they were never (and would never, for any president) going to go public with any concerning medical findings. It's - by design - all a polite fiction.

What makes it terrifying is the need for Supreme Leader appeasement, both for Trump himself and for the base. The (in all likely hood fabricated) details are there so that the relevant people can crow and become even MORE invested in the ideal of Trump as an übermensch. This is all authoritarian nazi shit, all the way down. It's scary to hear a doctor gush about it.


*for various definitions of fine
posted by lydhre at 6:41 AM on January 17, 2018 [37 favorites]


I’m a little confused about the votes required to prevent a shutdown on Friday.Do they need a simple majority or do they need 60 votes in the Senate?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:52 AM on January 17, 2018


I give you now The Most Midwestern Quote I Have Ever Read, from the Democrat who flipped a Wisconsin Senate district last night:

“It wasn’t nice. It was mean,” she said of the campaign literature. “People just said, ‘You know what? We’re nicer than that.’”

(My husband grew up in this district and this morning we went from surprised to elated to 'I wonder what Chrysostom has to say about this' in about four seconds.)
posted by gerstle at 6:57 AM on January 17, 2018 [52 favorites]


I’m a little confused about the votes required to prevent a shutdown on Friday.Do they need a simple majority or do they need 60 votes in the Senate?

Everything (mostly) in the Senate can technically pass with a simple majority, assuming no Senator decides to filibuster. The continuing resolution is filibusterable, so 60 votes are needed to prevent that. But I guess if the CR was bi-partisan enough to prevent filibuster, it would also get more than 60 votes?
posted by dis_integration at 7:03 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


For the Senate, getting past the filibuster is invoking the parliamentary procedure of Cloture which is a motion to end debate on the bill (which makes sense since a filibuster is endless "debate" on a bill"). In the US Senate the cloture threshold is 60 votes to end debate but the underlying bill still just needs a plain majority to pass.
posted by mmascolino at 7:10 AM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


I wonder if there are any circumstances under which it's common for a senator to support a bill (as in, would vote for it if it were up for a vote), but not the motion of cloture to stop a filibuster?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:13 AM on January 17, 2018


chris24: New PBS/NPR/Marist poll:
...
Americans say by 48-28 that the probe has been fair

57 percent have quite a lot (33) or a great deal (24) of confidence in FBI


NPR's opening line is pretty dire: "The institutions that have been the pillars of U.S. politics and capitalism are crumbling."
Americans have limited confidence in its public schools, courts, organized labor and banks — and even less confidence in big business, the presidency, the political parties and the media.

The only institution that Americans have overwhelming faith in is the military — 87 percent say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the military. That is a striking change from the 1970s during and after the Vietnam War.

In 1977, according to Gallup, 57 percent had that same level of confidence in the military, 30 points lower. There have been some big changes in the last 40 years, including the draft being abolished and fewer and fewer Americans knowing someone serving in the military.
...
Particularly worrisome for the media is that a majority of Republicans, a full 53 percent, have no confidence in them at all. Combined with those who said not very much confidence, a whopping 90 percent of Republicans expressed a lack of confidence in the media. That's compared to 42 percent of Democrats who felt the same.

What's more, three-quarters (74 percent) of independents had not very much or no confidence at all in the media. Fairness and objectivity are tenets and pillars of a free press, but those have been eroded in the eyes of many Americans.

At the same time, however, a solid majority said they trust their favorite news source more than President Trump by a 58-to-29 percent margin. That included 85 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents. Republicans, however, still trust the president more by a 63-to-25 percent margin.
(Link to the poll results)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:14 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


I wonder if there are any circumstances under which it's common for a senator to support a bill (as in, would vote for it if it were up for a vote), but not the motion of cloture to stop a filibuster?

This question recently came up at my day job. It turns out that, since 2007, 85% of the 12,282 times that a Senator cast both cloture and passage votes on a bill, the first cloture vote they cast was in the same direction (Yea or Nay) as the first passage vote.

One common-ish exception: Senate majority leaders "sometimes vote strategically against their party during cloture motions so it can be later reconsidered if it fails to receive a qualified majority." Lofland, Chelsea L., Abel Rodriguez, and Scott Moser. "Assessing differences in legislators’ revealed preferences: A case study on the 107th US Senate." The Annals of Applied Statistics 11.1 (2017): 456-479.

I don't think that accounts for the full 15% discrepancy. I'm not sure it's been well studied. We had to come up with the 85% figure ourselves; there doesn't seem to be a lot of discussion of the correlation between cloture votes and passage votes in the political science literature.
posted by jedicus at 7:22 AM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


"The institutions that have been the pillars of U.S. politics and capitalism are crumbling."
Yo, NPR, is that really what you ought to call it when one side is operating a jackhammer?
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:27 AM on January 17, 2018 [63 favorites]


Three more links to NPR, for a delightful land of contrasts.

Ethics Report On Trump Administration: The Most Unethical Presidency -- Steve Inskeep talks to Richard Painter, top ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush, and Norman Eisen, top ethics lawyer for President Obama. They argue Trump's administration has been unethical.
Richard Painter: The real problem with President Trump, or the most serious, most dangerous problem, is he ignores the Constitution. And with respect to financial conflicts of interest, the Constitution has a provision that prohibits any person holding a position of trust in the United States government from receiving profits and benefits from foreign governments. It's called the Emoluments Clause.

But it is very clear the founders did not want anybody, including the president, receiving profits of benefits from dealings with foreign governments. He's ignored that. He has refused to divest the businesses that are borrowing money from foreign governments and foreign-government-owned banks that are doing business with foreign governments. And that is one of many serious violations of the Constitution, so I think it's very important to view the ethics problem within the constitutional framework.
Unfortunately, CREW was found to lack standing to bring this issue forward, in the opinion of the federal district judge in New York, but they're appealing this decision, and there are two more cases moving forward.

Painter goes on with Trump's ethics issues:
He has assaulted the First Amendment, the freedom of the press. And now he's going to have this sort of fake news awards. And yes, there's a particular government ethics violation that is violated there. White House staff participate. The important thing, though, is to view this against the background of the Constitution, and he does not respect the First Amendment, freedom of the press, freedom of the free exercise of religion when you talk about a Muslim ban repeatedly. It goes on and on, and we cannot have a president who does not respect the Constitution. That's the way you move toward a dictatorships.
This piece played right after this one: Thai Officials Want To Silence Critics, Scholar Charged With Insulting Monarchy -- Questioning the official count of how a battle happened 400 years ago has gotten historian Sulak Sivaraksa looking at 15 years in prison under Thailand's lese-majeste law.

But to balance that all out, Rachel Martin talks to Jonathan Cheng, Seoul bureau chief for The Wall Street Journal, in a segment titled Koreas Hold Border Talks, U.S., Canada Hold Summit On Nuclear Threat, in which Cheng said:
You know, even people who are skeptical of Donald Trump have pointed out that he has done a good job - Rex Tillerson, you could give the credit to - for having coordinated a global pressure campaign that has generally borne fruit. You've seen a lot of countries downgrade their relations with North Korea. You've seen them start to feel the pinch. But without China, you can't really close that circle.
Yet somehow, Martin only offers a passing comment on "the nuclear standoff," noting that the North and South Korea talks "didn't go there," but no mention at all that this standoff has been stoked by Trump, as many (Wired, Sep 19, 2017) have (CBC, Sep 24, 2017) noted (CNN, Jan 3, 2018).
posted by filthy light thief at 7:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


Matthew Yglesias at Vox is wondering if Trump and his minions are hoping for a terrorist attack as a Hail Mary to keep the "blue wave" from the 2018 midterms.
I’m pretty skeptical that the political dynamics of September 2001 would be replicated today. But regardless, this is a frightening line of thought for an incumbent president and his team to be entertaining...If Trump thinks a terrorist attack would serve his political interests — either through a blind rally ‘round the flag effect or by specifically validating anti-immigrant demagoguery or what have you — how hard is he really working to keep the country safe?
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:32 AM on January 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


Meanwhile, 21 states sue FCC to restore net neutrality rules (Jon Brodkin for Ars Technica, Jan. 16, 2018)
Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia today kicked off a lawsuit to overturn the Federal Communications Commission's repeal of net neutrality rules. Advocacy groups are also suing the FCC.

The states suing the FCC are New York, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. That's every US state with a Democratic attorney general. Republican state attorneys general did not join the petition.
...
The states filed a "protective petition for review" (PDF), which essentially reserves them a spot in court challenges against the FCC. The petition was filed in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

There is a 10-day window for filing lawsuits, but it's not always clear whether the deadline applies to the 10 business days after the FCC publishes an order on its website or to the 10 days after the order is published in the Federal Register. The FCC released the final version of its net neutrality repeal order on January 4, but it hasn't yet been published in the Federal Register.

The 21 states and Washington, DC, will likely file another petition for review after the Federal Register publication, but the one today ensures that they will be involved in the lawsuit. If petitions are filed in multiple appeals courts, there would be a lottery to determine where the case will be heard. Previous cases on FCC net neutrality rules have been decided in the District of Columbia Circuit.

Legislators in some of these states have proposed legislation to enforce net neutrality.
Emphasis mine.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:34 AM on January 17, 2018 [42 favorites]


Regarding Trump's implausible resting heart rate (68 bpm) and blood pressure (122/74), could he have taking some drug before the exam to drive down both measurements?
posted by carmicha at 7:36 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


"The institutions that have been the pillars of U.S. politics and capitalism are crumbling."

Yo, NPR, is that really what you ought to call it when one side is operating a jackhammer?


Yeah, "institutions... are crumbling" is a super weaselly use of the passive voice. It's right up there with "Mistakes were made." A subject for the verb would make for a much more illuminating sentence.
posted by diogenes at 7:43 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


a super weaselly use of the passive voice... A subject for the verb would make for a much more illuminating sentence.
Let's just be clear that the sentence does not use the passive voice—in fact, all but the last two words are its subject—and move on.
posted by one for the books at 7:52 AM on January 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


Regarding Trump's implausible resting heart rate (68 bpm) and blood pressure (122/74), could he have taking some drug before the exam to drive down both measurements?
posted by carmicha at 10:36 AM on January 17


It could just be that he regularly takes beta blockers, which would be reasonable for a 71-year-old with weight issues and a poor diet.
posted by ZaphodB at 7:53 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


For the record, it looks like the term "Girthers" (to refer to doubters of the President's reported weight) is being attributed to MSNBC's Chris Hayes.
posted by zakur at 7:53 AM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


A thread from David Wright: Trey Gowdy went to town on Bannon on Fox last night
Gowdy: "Picture that. [Bannon] is happy to tell an author about treasonous, unpatriotic acts, but he won’t tell members of Congress when he is pressed on it. I don't know of any privilege that lets you pick and choose who you answer questions for."

This is a rhetorical question, but if everyone considers the "executive privilege" that Bannon is claiming to be bupkus, and Gowdy does, then .... why are they obeying it?
Gowdy: "[Bannon's] version of executive privilege is, it covers the transition, the time he was at the White House, and covers time forever. That is no one's definition of executive privilege. We spent several hours trying to figure out what [Bannon] was talking about, and then in the afternoon, we had to dodge around the three categories that are apparently off limits."
posted by Dashy at 7:58 AM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Let's just be clear that the sentence does not use the passive voice—in fact, all but the last two words are its subject—and move on.

Sorry, I should have said that it would be a clearer sentence if it didn't make the object of the action the subject of the sentence in order to avoid assigning an actor.
posted by diogenes at 7:59 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


For the record, it looks like the term "Girthers" (to refer to doubters of the President's reported weight) is being attributed to MSNBC's Chris Hayes.

Pretty funny, but encourages a false equivalence. The notion that people believing the obvious testimony of their own eyes and rational faculties is in any way comparable to groundless, racist-motivated conspiracy theorizing just supports the lie that all of this is just partisan bickering, rather than a clear struggle between truth and falsehood.
posted by biogeo at 7:59 AM on January 17, 2018 [58 favorites]


We spent several hours trying to figure out what [Bannon] was talking about, and then in the afternoon, we had to dodge around the three categories that are apparently off limits."

If Bannon's very fulsome interpretation of executive privilege goes unchallenged, does it become precedent? I'm far less familiar with the practicalities of US governmental rules than those of the UK, but I do know that many 'this is how we do it' procedures were innovations with no particular legal or constitutional basis that acquired force through use.

Executive privilege, executive time. Orwell would be proud to have invented the use of 'executive' as such a puissant universal modifier.
posted by Devonian at 8:15 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


If Bannon's very fulsome interpretation of executive privilege goes unchallenged, does it become precedent?

Yes, until a Democrat attempts to do the same.
posted by delfin at 8:21 AM on January 17, 2018 [63 favorites]


It could just be that he regularly takes beta blockers, which would be reasonable for a 71-year-old with weight issues and a poor diet.

If he does they're not listed in the doctor's report, which lists Aspirin, Propecia & Crestor as his regular meds.
posted by scalefree at 8:22 AM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Apparently after reading about yesterday's election, Scott Walker is not having a good morning.
posted by NoxAeternum at 8:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [34 favorites]


Of all the things Trump lies about/may have lied about, the precise state of his dumb carcass is about ten billionth on my list of concerns.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [44 favorites]


Trump's credibility crisis on Capitol Hill

Lawmakers find it difficult or impossible to negotiate when the president can't seem to stick to a position for more than a few hours. (Politico)
Donald Trump ran for president as a bipartisan deal-maker. But if there's one thing he's proven after a year in office, he’s better at killing bipartisan deals than clinching them.

On the cusp of a deal for the second time with Democrats to enshrine protections for 700,000 young undocumented immigrants, Trump once again destroyed the underpinnings of the potential agreement. After nixing any potential Dreamers deal last fall with “Chuck and Nancy” — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi — this time Trump blew up a tentative agreement during a meeting in the Oval Office. He used racially charged language and later publicly mocked Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who had said Trump told him just hours earlier they had an agreement.

So now, instead of securing a bipartisan deal to fund the government and help a large group of immigrants that Trump said deserve compassion, the president and Republican Congress are scrambling, yet again, just to keep the government open. Trump abruptly changed course and sided with the hawkish anti-immigration wing inside his White House, rejecting bipartisan Senate agreement to protect the Dreamers.

The now-weeklong “shithole” countries controversy is more than another Trump flap blown out proportion by cable TV and the Trump-obsessed press corps.

It demonstrates once again to Democrats — and Republicans — that Trump is an unpredictable, unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep his word. To lawmakers on Capitol Hill, there may be no greater crime, since all members and senators know their word is their bond. Once you lose that credibility, you’re done as a deal-maker.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:39 AM on January 17, 2018 [36 favorites]


Attorney General Jeff Sessions subscribed to an equally broad understanding of Executive Privilege (the President may at some point claim privilege over these matters, and it would be presumptuous of me to preempt that by answering), which his Senate GOP interlocutors we’re willing to accept. I doubt Bannon or anyone else recognize that as precedent; it suited all involved politically, so they let it go then, and probably will now. If the House Intel Committee wants to compel Bannon to respond, the committee can seek a Contempt of Congress citation (requires a vote of the full body), then a referral to a US Attorney who would decide whether to seek sanctions via a US court.

Gowdy seems to have chosen option B, which is “to fulminate about it on Fox News.”
posted by notyou at 8:40 AM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Jeff Flake is done giving his “please book me on CNN and give me a spot at the Harvard Kennedy school in 7 months” speech, just in time to vote for a funding bill that uses 7 million kids as hostages agasint passing his alleged top priority before leaving government, while also doing nothing to combat Trumps corruption.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:41 AM on January 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


It demonstrates once again to Democrats — and Republicans — that Trump is an unpredictable, unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep his word. To lawmakers on Capitol Hill, there may be no greater crime, since all members and senators know their word is their bond. Once you lose that credibility, you’re done as a deal-maker.

Water is wet too, how about telling us what to do about it instead of reporting the same information over and over??
posted by Melismata at 8:42 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Flake never claimed to oppose Trump's agenda (as if that's a thing that exists). He just said he doesn't have the stomach to campaign like a Trumper.
posted by straight at 8:44 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


NoxAeternum: "Apparently after reading about yesterday's election, Scott Walker is not having a good morning."

Scott Walker is right (now there's a sentence I don't write very often). The results last night in two quite red legislative districts should be very concerning for the WI GOP. One race had a 25 point improvement for the Dems versus the presidential margin, the other 28 points. Those are, well, eye-popping numbers. And the flip was the Senate race, which puts the Senate reasonably in play in 2018 (the Assembly may be tougher, the GOP has an almost 2:1 advantage there).

Two WP write-ups. Of note is the fact that various GOP groups dumped $130K into the race.

Also, this bit of analysis:
Some inside stuff on #SD10 - You know how everyone always talks about GOP dominance in Waukesha County? Well, St. Croix County is the Waukesha County of the Twin Cities. If Rs lose it, it's catastrophic.

In a down year, even Romney won St. Croix County by 12. It's basically wealthy suburban Republicans who have fled the Twin Cities, but it looks like the GOP may quickly be losing them.

In WI’s #SD10 race, the Republican (Jarchow) actually did well in the eastern, rural, working-class areas of the district - what we would consider to be “Trump country.” But in the wealthy GOP areas bordering the Mississippi River, it was a bloodbath for the GOP.

In a low-turnout race, the Republican was getting an astounding 1/7th of the Sheila Harsdorf 2016 vote in GOP strongholds, while the Dem got about 1/3 of the 2016 Dem vote, leading to some insane local results. Enthusiasm gap, bad messaging and Trumpism are all suspects.

Low-turnout special elections are notoriously hard to gauge, but at the very least, it looks like the Dems are holding a good hand before the 2018 flop.
And it wasn't just in Wisconsin, in every contested race last night Dems significantly overperformed. Hell, they even overperformed compared to 2017 specials overperformance.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:48 AM on January 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


That Politico article is just chock-full of primo Lindsey Graham quotes.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who tried to sell the president on the Dreamers deal, was plainly discouraged.

“You can’t fix this problem without the president,” Graham said in an interview. “I think he does [want a deal]. … He’s poorly served by his staff. I think that the guy [last] Tuesday was contrary 180 degrees different from the guy I saw Thursday. I think it’s staff.”

But blaming Trump's staff was Graham's way of pulling his punches, since Trump's position on the Dreamers issue could be changed only if the president himself were willing to change it.


So your defense of Trump is that he's easily manipulated by this staff? Okay, then.

"What happened between 10 and 12?" Graham asked of Thursday’s about-face by Trump. "[Earlier] Tuesday, we had a president that I was proud to golf with, call my friend, who understood immigration had to be bipartisan, you had to have border security as essential, you have border security with a wall, but he also understood the idea that we had to do it with compassion. I don't know where that guy went. I want him back."

First of all, that guy never existed. Second of all, Donald Trump was a man you were proud to golf with and call a friend until precisely noon on Tuesday, January 16th, 2018? Okay, then.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:49 AM on January 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


It got a bit lost in the shuffle, but not only am I horrified that the Republican President decided he could order Jim Acosta out for asking an inconvenient question, I'm horrified that every other reporter in the room did not leave.

If there was ever a time the "journalists" in America needed to stop with their access obsession and actually do real journalism instead of just being stenographers for the powerful that time is now. And the first step in doing that is solidarity to prevent the Republican President from crushing them in isolation and driving them to self censorship to avoid his ire.

We saw how it should work in the Netherlands, the journalists there were doing real journalism they were not mere stenographers, and that was only in response to mere stonewalling from the Republican Ambassador. I cannot imagine that Dutch journalists would stand by and allow one of their fellow reporters to be ordered out of a press event (however ineffectually, since apparently Acosta did not actually leave).
posted by sotonohito at 8:53 AM on January 17, 2018 [99 favorites]


Mod note: A few deleted; enough with the weight thing.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:00 AM on January 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


Apparently after reading about yesterday's election, Scott Walker is not having a good morning.

Hahah. GOOD. I hope Christmas 2018 is a Blue Christmas for him, IYKWIM. And I noticed that even in the districts where the Republicans still held, there was a Democratic gain. Rome wasn't built in a day, etc. and the take-away is just to keep plugging away, run Democrats whenever possible, and keep the Republicans on their toes (and spending their money) even if they win.

Remembering the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth that went on when Tom Perez won the DNC chair, he seems to be doing a good job, and, most importantly, the DNC seems to be investing more in local races.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 9:10 AM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


@ZekeMiller: WASHINGTON (AP) - AP Sources: Steve Bannon attorney relayed questions to White House during House interview, was told when not to respond.


as Jared Yates Sexton said - its not clear how much more obvious the obstruction of justice case could be unless trump went on tv and said "im obstructing justice bigly"
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:11 AM on January 17, 2018 [115 favorites]




The standard budget process is for both houses of Congress to pass a concurrent resolution with budget targets, then for them to pass a bunch of appropriations bills for the upcoming year. The budget resolution and the appropriations bills (as long as they comply with the budget targets) are protected from filibuster in the Senate. You can also use the budget resolution to identify targets for a budget reconciliation bill, which is likewise filibuster-protected.

When this breaks down, or isn't started in the first place, they pass continuing resolutions, which mostly say "keep spending like before, until [this date]." You can also add whatever else you want to those bills, too. Because they're not under a budget resolution, they aren't filibuster-proof, so you need 60 votes in the Senate. Usually not a problem, because the alternative is to shut the government down, and Congress doesn't want to do that. Usually.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:16 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


The big news the first of this week was not even the blatant IMHO lies about orange turd's health. (He's got great eugenics. I mean genetics!) It's either the ongoing investigations OR - most alarmingly to me - the US AG trying to bypass the normal legal process to get his "friendly court" (the conservative-packed SCOTUS) to expedite hurting more people.

But for a bit of levity, here's Stephen Colbert calling out, among other things, Kirstjen Nielsen. (After the 3:00 mark.)
posted by NorthernLite at 9:21 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


He’s poorly served by his staff

The Cossacks work for the Czar.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 9:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


I understand that the committee interview is not the same as a Grand Jury Hearing but how does having your lawyer on the horn with the object of the investigation help anyone out of anything?
posted by Tevin at 9:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


sotonohito: I cannot imagine that Dutch journalists would stand by and allow one of their fellow reporters to be ordered out of a press event (however ineffectually, since apparently Acosta did not actually leave).

According to one or two Dutch commenters online, their press is plenty deferential to the right-leaning Dutch government.

Perhaps every country's political press should be foreign, so they can feel comfortable holding the powerful accountable. Like one of those morbid comedies where the characters agree to swap murders so they have good alibis.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:27 AM on January 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


and the take-away is just to keep plugging away, run Democrats whenever possible, and keep the Republicans on their toes (and spending their money) even if they win.M

A recent Jacobin podcast featured an interview with academic/writer Patrick Blanchfield about the Wolff book. One of the conclusions at which Blanchfield arrives: the main thing Trump should teach the left about the presidency is that though the position is important, and powerful, the actual, meaningful fight is local, and that (as is being shown in various ways by various state governments) pushback against unpopular policy is often an effective deterrent of it, but the main thing was to eschew the popularity-contest horserace aspect of it all and focus on the local races, local policies, and local messages.
Because that's what goes to the national level, even if it takes a couple of cycles to get there.
posted by eclectist at 9:27 AM on January 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


@LauraLitvan (Bloomberg)
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has urged all Democrats to vote against a short-term government funding measure that doesn't include immigration and other Dem demands. ``No Democrats are going to vote for it,'' says Dem Rep John Yarmuth
posted by chris24 at 9:28 AM on January 17, 2018 [33 favorites]


Rosie M. Banks: "Remembering the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth that went on when Tom Perez won the DNC chair, he seems to be doing a good job, and, most importantly, the DNC seems to be investing more in local races."

I agree, we've seen welcome DNC involvement in Congressional specials, but state legislative races fall under the DLCC, run by Jessica Post.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:32 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


A couple of additional implausibly specific details from the Doctor-Admiral Ronny Jackson show (C-SPAN video) which don't seem to have been highlighted here or elsewhere on the internet: he claims that when he sees the President eat on Air Force One it's "minus the desserts" everyone else has and that (at 45:00 in the video):
I've never seen the President stressed out about too much. I think the one thing I've noticed about him that I think is unique—and this is just my personal opinion, this has nothing to do with my medical assessment—one of the things he has that is unique, which I would assume has led to some of his success over the years, he has a very unique ability to just get up in the morning and reset. I've seen it before where things are going on and alot of people around him, and myself if I were in that situation, I would get up the next morning and the next day would build on the day before and I would start getting more and more stressed... he has the unique ability to somewhat push the reset button, and he gets up and he just starts a new day. And I think that overall that has helped him with his stress level, and with his, y'know, has made him healthier from a stress standpoint.
There you have it from his doctor—the apparently frenzied dawn-twilight Tweeting about events from the preceding hours or days is really just the product of a keen, cool, calm, calculating mind free from stress and working like a well-oiled machine.
posted by XMLicious at 9:33 AM on January 17, 2018 [32 favorites]


Somehow, the week of "shithole countries" and porn actress hush money is the week Trump's FiveThirtyEight aggregate approval rating breaks through the 40% mark for the first time since May 2017. What the fuck is wrong with us?
posted by contraption at 9:34 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


What the good doctor really admires about the president is that he never fell into that "object permanence" trap
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:36 AM on January 17, 2018 [79 favorites]


What the fuck is wrong with us?

We're getting used to it.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:37 AM on January 17, 2018 [41 favorites]


Trump's approvals tend to fall when Congress is actually doing something stupid - Obamacare repeal, tax bill. They aren't doing something like that at the moment. There's the budget thing, but I don't think that's probably broken through to the non-politics mavens.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:37 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Per the Pelosi statements, above, it looks like Schumer is on board, too:

Schumer: House funding bill 'a loser' (The Hill)
Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) blasted a House stopgap funding bill on Wednesday, calling the plan a "loser."

"It's a loser in terms of the things that this country needs. We could easily sit down and come to an agreement that would get the support of a majority of both sides," Schumer said from the Senate floor.

Schumer added that if "God forbid, there's a shutdown, it will fall on the majority leader's shoulders and the president's shoulders."
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:37 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


What the fuck is wrong with us?

Just spitballing here, but probably a lack of focus by our media organizations on the horrific policy decisions from the executive and legislative branches and real human impacts of such things, and more of a focus on horse-race politics, culture-war outrage, and other superficial nonsense. The more the focus is on things like shitholegate and Trump's personally unpalatable proclivities, the easier it is for people to get back into that us-v-them tribalism.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:38 AM on January 17, 2018 [40 favorites]


Looks like Bannon is not going to be doing the grand jury thing anymore.

CNN: Bannon will do interview with special counsel, avoiding grand jury for now
Steve Bannon has struck a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller's team and will be interviewed by prosecutors instead of testifying before the grand jury, two people familiar with the process told CNN. He is expected to cooperate with the special counsel, the sources said.
Meanwhile the Nunes-authorized subpoena still stands, I believe.
posted by cybertaur1 at 9:40 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


he has the unique ability to somewhat push the reset button, and he gets up and he just starts a new day.

Why it's almost like he has no real awareness of ongoing situations beyond his immediate surroundings. Plus he can identify a lion! (I really, really want to see the clock he drew.)
posted by contraption at 9:40 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


Regarding Trump's implausible resting heart rate (68 bpm) and blood pressure (122/74), could he have taking some drug before the exam to drive down both measurements?

Given that that report is baldly, badly lying about stuff that's super easy to check, I'd suggest there's a much simpler answer to that question than some unknown pharmacolological wizardry.
posted by bonehead at 9:48 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


What the fuck is wrong with us?

This is who we are.

I've been harping on this article incessantly, and I understand at the outset it doesn't look relevant, but Louis Menand persuasively argues here that politicians have been successfully channeling American racism and nationalism and ignorance because it's there, it's always been there, and it's probably going to continue being there for some time longer. It's not Trump. It's not a change. It's not new. It's who we are and have long been.

This (combined with my own assessment of ...everything) has caused me to shift my thinking quite a bit, making me a sadder but wiser American. For some time during the 20th century, this country was able to contain these forces with a strong dose of idealistic superego, the aftermath of some world wars, an academic elite, a big and precisely tuned civil rights movement, a counterculture youth movement, and some other forces. But all it ever was was containment. Obama's administration was the anomaly...not this.

It really fundamentally alienates me from my country, but in a sense it's that moment where you truly face the reality of the situation. And I know this is not news to many Americans who have looked this country's inborn evils directly in their face all their lives. But for those of us who were encouraged by gains in human rights and social policies, it is time to recognize that our policy wins have taken place at the margins, and activate the margins - but the hearts of the nation have largely been left untouched.
posted by Miko at 9:50 AM on January 17, 2018 [99 favorites]


What the fuck is wrong with us?

I'm also guessing that a lot of people are hearing the "Dow hits record highs!" stuff and assuming that it means their ship is finally about to come in any minute now, just like 45 promised.
posted by holborne at 9:55 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


CBS Sacramento: New California declares "independence" from rest of state (auto playing video)
With the reading of their own version of a Declaration of Independence, founders of the state of New California took the first steps to what they hope will eventually lead to statehood.

To be clear, they don’t want to leave the United States, just California.

“Well, it’s been ungovernable for a long time. High taxes, education, you name it, and we’re rated around 48th or 50th from a business climate and standpoint in California,” said founder Robert Paul Preston.

The state of New California would incorporate most of the state’s rural counties, leaving the urban coastal counties to the current state of California.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:59 AM on January 17, 2018


"I've been harping on this article incessantly, and I understand at the outset it doesn't look relevant, but Louis Menand persuasively argues here that politicians have been successfully channeling American racism and nationalism and ignorance because it's there, it's always been there, and it's probably going to continue being there for some time longer. It's not Trump. It's not a change. It's not new. It's who we are and have long been. "

Going into the 2016 election I thought that Clinton would win because she represented a kind of stasis of the status quo and that, when it comes down to it, people would like things to stay the same rather than go in for a wild change.

I was right, but not in the way I anticipated. Trump's voters weren't interested in economic or policy continuity, but social stasis. They were interested in maintaining white supremacy and making sure that whiteness would stay the status quo.

Upholding the values of white supremacy in our culture trumps all other facets of stability and continuity for them.
posted by Tevin at 10:01 AM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


Miko: But for those of us who were encouraged by gains in human rights and social policies, it is time to recognize that our policy wins have taken place at the margins, and activate the margins - but the hearts of the nation have largely been left untouched.

Yes to all that... and no. The bastards insist they are the "heart" of the nation, but they don't have the right to claim it. There are fewer of them, even if perhaps they were a majority once. They're not the "real" Americans. They're the special interest. They're the interlopers who don't belong. They merely hold disproportionate power both politically and culturally.

The numbers that rightly depress us all... are still below 50%. They just seem abysmal if one's (totally reasonable!) standard is general decency.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:02 AM on January 17, 2018 [13 favorites]


Oh noes! How will California ever survive without subsidizing "New California"!?
The idea that rural Californians would have better education, infrastructure, and health-care services if only they had lower tax rates, and no access to state revenues generated in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Sacramento, is delightfully delusional. And, as election analyst J. Miles Coleman points out, the conservative utopia of New California would almost certainly be dominated by liberal Democrats.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:04 AM on January 17, 2018 [35 favorites]


As a Californian who grew up in 'New California,' I'd like to give a hearty fuck-you to these morons.

And, as election analyst J. Miles Coleman points out, the conservative utopia of New California would almost certainly be dominated by liberal Democrats.

Lol
posted by Existential Dread at 10:04 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


By the time they divide it down into New New New New New California, though, it'll be a proper Galt's Gulch!
posted by delfin at 10:06 AM on January 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


This (combined with my own assessment of ...everything) has caused me to shift my thinking quite a bit, making me a sadder but wiser American. For some time during the 20th century, this country was able to contain these forces with a strong dose of idealistic superego, the aftermath of some world wars, an academic elite, a big and precisely tuned civil rights movement, a counterculture youth movement, and some other forces. But all it ever was was containment. Obama's administration was the anomaly...not this.

It really fundamentally alienates me from my country, but in a sense it's that moment where you truly face the reality of the situation. [...] But for those of us who were encouraged by gains in human rights and social policies, it is time to recognize that our policy wins have taken place at the margins, and activate the margins - but the hearts of the nation have largely been left untouched.


I refuse to believe this. If there existed some magical, 100%-accurate method of voting with 100% participation, we'd have hundreds of Obamas. Lots of Trumps and Thurmonds too, sure. But more Obamas. Well over half of this country's populace is sane and decent. The "margins" you refer to are a contemporaneous measure of political power, not of the actual collective will of the people.

The containment bit, though, and the notion that the poisons lurking in the mud are not somehow new, I definitely agree with. The trick is outmaneuvering their scheming.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 10:08 AM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


Their conservative utopia is less New California and more Caesar's Legion.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 10:12 AM on January 17, 2018 [13 favorites]


Native Californian here - and I remember rural north and northeast CA making mouth noises about secession and forming their very own state as far back as the 80's. This Wikipedia article on the proposed state of Jefferson (incorporating parts of southern Oregon) states the origin as being in the 1940s:
On November 27, 1941, a group of young men gained national media attention when, brandishing hunting rifles for dramatic effect, they stopped traffic on U.S. Route 99 south of Yreka, the county seat of Siskiyou County, and handed out copies of a Proclamation of Independence, stating that the State of Jefferson was in "patriotic rebellion against the States of California and Oregon" and would continue to "secede every Thursday until further notice."
Decades of talk and very little action. I'm not holding my breath for Jefferson, Weedonia, or Sativaland being the 52nd state anytime soon. And, I don't mean to be one of those conspiracy theorists, but is this iteration of "we need a new California" more Russian meddling to try to kneecap the world's fifth largest economy - a powerful blue state - like the California secession movement? California is a powerful force in the Democrats' corner.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 10:15 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


As far as Trump's resting heart rate of 68bpm is concerned, I'll just say this: I'm nearly 59, about 40lbs overweight and I don't exercise enough other than walking (2 miles today). My resting heart rate is around 55-58bpm, and has been all my adult life. Like Trump, I also don't drink and have never smoked. So I don't find that part of the doctor's report which says his resting heart rate is 68bpm to be implausible.

That's not to say the rest of it isn't bullshit - he's not 6'3", he weighs probably 25lbs more than stated and wears reading glasses. But it's possible his resting heart rate, at least when he's not all a-Twitter, might well be 68bpm.
posted by essexjan at 10:15 AM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


New California looks a whole lot like “Calexit” from what, like 2 months ago?, that turned out to be one wierd dude who moved to Russia...and 35000 Russian bots on Twitter. They’re not even putting any effort into these disinfo ops.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:15 AM on January 17, 2018 [37 favorites]


According to leading economic analysts, California is insolvent and will be bankrupt next year just as it has every year for the last 25 years.

Could this be the year economists who have always been wrong will finally always have been right ?
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 10:19 AM on January 17, 2018


is this iteration of "we need a new California" more Russian meddling to try to kneecap the world's fifth largest economy - a powerful blue state - like the California secession movement? California is a powerful force in the Democrats' corner.

Kamala Harris and Hilary Clinton would still have won in New California, just by somewhat lesser margins. So, on net, the Democrats would come out ahead in this scenario.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:20 AM on January 17, 2018


The emphasis on lack of dentures in Trump's physical examination report was ... odd.
posted by dhruva at 10:21 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


The bastards insist they are the "heart" of the nation,

They do, but the truth isn't that they aren't the true heart or they are, or that they're right or not right.. The truth is that they are there, along with the rest of us, and they have been for a long time, and aren't showing a lot of signs of waking up different tomorrow. They are part of us. They are in us and of us. They are just as much America as anyone else. They don't think about us, but I think it's high time I started realizing that about them - about us. Our nation is built on a history that includes stubborn and so-far permanent strains of racism and nationalism that discrete gains will not wipe away. All strategy has to work itself around that fact.
posted by Miko at 10:22 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


refuse to believe this. If there existed some magical, 100%-accurate method of voting with 100% participation, we'd have hundreds of Obamas.

Yeah, and that's part of my point. Too many eligible voters don't vote. They're disengaged and/or disenfranchised. Electoral representation would look different if everyone voted. But the deeply entrenched social prejudices in this country - and the representatives those who hold them elect - are part of the reason everyone doesn't vote.
posted by Miko at 10:24 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Barack Spinoza: It demonstrates once again to Democrats — and Republicans — that Trump is an unpredictable, unreliable partner who cannot be trusted to keep his word. To lawmakers on Capitol Hill, there may be no greater crime, since all members and senators know their word is their bond. Once you lose that credibility, you’re done as a deal-maker.

But for the GOP, it seems that no crime really matters, so long as they stay in power, and they keep getting paid for being in power. Because at this point, they're not even getting that much done.


Miko: Louis Menand persuasively argues here that politicians have been successfully channeling American racism and nationalism and ignorance because it's there, it's always been there, and it's probably going to continue being there for some time longer.

That's letting politicians off the hook for fanning these divisive flames. Of course they'll continue for a long time as long as they're useful for dividing My Base from Yours (and My Base's Money from them, so they can keep themselves in power).

So it seems this all comes back to politicians staying in power to keep getting paid for being in power.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:24 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


The emphasis on lack of dentures in Trump's physical examination report was ... odd.

I remember there was speculation about his having dentures as an explanation for garbling words.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:24 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


According to this Daily Kos article, the New California movement features white supremacists and conspiracy theorists, featuring gems like "English is dying in California!," the recent wildfires being some sort of gummint/librul "climate scientist" plot, etc. Something tells me this won't catch on.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 10:25 AM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


>> What the fuck is wrong with us?
> This is who we are [...] all it ever was was containment. Obama's administration was the anomaly...not this.


I favorited Miko's comment but like CheesesOfBrazil, I refuse to believe that there is no hope. The majority of the country is better than the racist rump, and I've seen much worse casual racism first-hand, in ways that were so common that I did not even think of them as racism.

On the other hand, I will forever be proud of my citizenship certificate with President Obama's signature on it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:25 AM on January 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


It is frustrating to me that any nutso idea like Calexit or "New California" can get this sort of non-critical coverage... Reading the article, you'd think that this would be something that was actually a serious attempt by empowered people, as opposed to the loosely organized group of white supremiacists who think that reading articles of independence with zero involvement / engagement from any political representation from the state will accomplish something... This is practically the "sovereign citizen" version of forming a state, and it should not be taken seriously as an attempt to form a state, but should be taken seriously as a group of right wing extremists.
posted by MysticMCJ at 10:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


re: dentures -- speculation really ramped up after garbling "God bless The United States" in that Jerusalem speech a month ago.
posted by cybertaur1 at 10:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


fine, so he doesn't have dentures—just very loose teeth
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


That's letting politicians off the hook for fanning these divisive flames.

They do, but the flames then blaze up because the underlying sentiment is there because of politicians past. This is an American tradition. The people who are being fanned put the fanners there. They like the fanning.

The opposite of fanning is containment. We aren't currently successful at the containment.

I refuse to believe that there is no hope.

Oh, I don't mean to give the impression that I think there is no hope. There is definitely hope! But it does not lie in changing the base. They're not super likely to change. It lies in activating the margins - and a lot of that, electorally.

It's about dropping the romanticism about America's inherent goodness. That was always a myth, the part of the "exceptionalism" that liberals do love. These aren't just assholes who crashed the party. The party is taking place in a house that the assholes built.

Any gains we make are about pushing back against this long historical tide. Entirely with targeted strategy, not with moving massive numbers. For an increasingly more just society, we have to know how to succeed despite the 40%.
posted by Miko at 10:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


It seems like a lot of the secessionist movements are white supremacist at their core, even among a lot of liberal Oregonians with the concept of Cascadia.
posted by gucci mane at 10:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


New California? Bah. If you want to talk about making major changes to the shape of the nation start talking big, big like consolidating states into mega regions and restricting how representation works. You want a big change? Fine, all the plains states are merged into a single unit with mandate to transform the bulk of the land mass to protected tall grass prairie and buffalo grazing
. Call it a form of carbon sequestering.
posted by The Whelk at 10:33 AM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


Actual current CNN Chyron: Trump Admin Touts Misleading Stats to Link Terror, Immigration
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:34 AM on January 17, 2018 [32 favorites]


cybertaur1: speculation really ramped up after garbling "God bless The United States"

Yeah I remember that; and the denture theory was floated, I thought, to offset dementia/drug use theories.
posted by dhruva at 10:36 AM on January 17, 2018


TPM:
The Justice Department in a court filing Tuesday said that it had requested that former commissioners on President Trump’s now defunct voter fraud panel not share any non-public records collected by the commission with the Department of Homeland Security, and that DOJ lawyers asked vice chair, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, specifically to refrain from sharing the records.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:45 AM on January 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


The way I see the US political cycle is that the Forces of Containment (FOC) work for a while, to the point that American civil society starts to look like it has matured and moved on from it's racist past, and in the process the good guys start to disengage, thinking history has moved on - we're done. But we're never done. Oligarchs and racists regroup and chip away at the gains made, fine tune their message, and before you know it you get Nixon, Reagan, the Tea Party, Trump, etc. The trick will be to keep the good guys engaged and alert and forever reinforcing the FOC though meaningful civic engagement. Whether it's running for local office, contacting your existing reps, showing up at town meetings, primarying fools, etc. It's a constant struggle, and the optimist in me sees the pendulum swinging back. But it will never stop swinging, and the deplorable ~30% is always there. Hell, it's there in Europe, it's just that they have had more robust FOCs, though they need some shoring up too.
posted by jetsetsc at 10:45 AM on January 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


Here is a beautiful set of animated graphics in the NYT Upshot:

Adventures in Extreme Gerrymandering: See the Fair and Wildly Unfair Maps We Made for Pennsylvania

It's a rather dramatic illustration of how Democrats could win the overall statewide popular vote by 1.5% and still lose districts as badly as 3 to 15, just because there are so many Democrats in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while the rural and suburban areas of the state tilt conservative.

Lesson: we should all move to the countryside.

Or multi-member districts would easily fix this problem, but good luck with that.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:50 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Or just get rid of districts entirely and go proportional representation. Or some other non-district means of dealing with representation. Hell, even just having all citizens assigned randomly every election to a virtual district would be better than the current godawful mess.

Districts are a terrible idea. They're inherently awful, and I don't think there's any real way to make them good, only less awful.
posted by sotonohito at 10:57 AM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


Alexandra Erin says the doctor explicitly attributed the slurring to Sudafed. Not in the sense that his mental/language faculties were impaired as a drug side effect or something; simply that Sudafed dries out the mouth. I'd say that's consistent with the odd tongue/lip movement which I originally took to be dentures.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:58 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


I was saying in one of the previous threads—by exploiting the perfidious turpitude and greed of the conservative/nationalists I totally bet we could manage to get high-population, high-tax-revenue regions of liberal states detached from their sneering New-Californian-type neighbors and merged into red states, thus changing the demographics of the Electoral College to make it more like the actual national averages.
posted by XMLicious at 10:59 AM on January 17, 2018


One thing to watch out for with MMDs is they tend to disenfranchise minorities. They'd have to be carefully handled to avoid that.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:59 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'm so so sorry for this.

Daily Beast, Erin Gloria Ryan, InTouch to Drop 5,000 Words From Stormy Daniels on Sex With Trump: "According to a magazine source, the transcript contains details of ‘[w]hat he’s like in bed, pillow talk, she talks about what he’s like down there...’"
Daniels revealed that Trump asked her to sign a DVD copy of her film 3 Wishes and that he called her roughly every 10 days after their first encounter. As for the later encounters, she said: “We had really good banter. He told me once that I was someone to be reckoned with, beautiful, smart, just like his daughter.”
The interview in question occurred in 2011, before she signed an NDA.
posted by zachlipton at 11:05 AM on January 17, 2018 [51 favorites]


A prophecy: before this is all over, someone will testify under oath about Donald Trump's weiner
posted by theodolite at 11:13 AM on January 17, 2018 [40 favorites]


But it does not lie in changing the base. They're not super likely to change.

The world changes because old views literally die off. The hope is in making sure the youth don't have the same views as their parents or grandparents. That's where effort has to go, and how lasting change can happen.
posted by bonehead at 11:18 AM on January 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


Daily Beast, Erin Gloria Ryan, InTouch to Drop 5,000 Words From Stormy Daniels on Sex With Trump: According to a magazine source, the transcript contains details of ‘[w]hat he’s like in bed, pillow talk, she talks about what he’s like down there...’"

Ugh. This is just distasteful; I really don't care anything about the man's sex life or that of Ms. Daniels. I can see that using the interview to confirm the affair and the subsequent NDA is in the public interest (not that I expect it will change anyone's minds about anything), but surely that can be done without sharing all the lewd detail.
posted by nubs at 11:19 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


and he alleged then that he discovered that he had over-prescribed medications that had caused the President's slurred speech. In any normal timeline, this would be a shocking revelation and a huge scandal.

I mean, you make it out as some debilitating incapacity. What Dr. Jackson simply said was that the gave the President some Sudafed, which dried out his mouth (I also apologize for this mental image, but the phrase was "inadvertently dried up his secretions more than I intended to"). If you think that's all a lie, then you do you, but I really don't think taking some Sudafed and having a dry mouth counts as shocking or a scandal of any size.
posted by zachlipton at 11:20 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'm so so sorry for this.

Daily Beast, Erin Gloria Ryan, InTouch to Drop 5,000 Words From Stormy Daniels on Sex With Trump


When this comes out I hope that everyone posting excerpts in these threads will be kind enough to wrap them in huge content warnings. I really don't want to read that shit.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 11:21 AM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


Actually if we could just go ahead and pre-emptively say "please no Donald Trump sex details quoted in these threads" that would be super because I don't that anywhere near my eyes or imagination and I don't think it has anything to say about politics, elections, or the actual presidency.
posted by Tevin at 11:23 AM on January 17, 2018 [37 favorites]


Trump gave Reuters a 53-minute interview. More to come, but the first story has him upset with Russia. Exclusive: Trump says Russia helping North Korea skirt sanctions; Pyongyang getting close on missile
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday Russia is helping North Korea get supplies in violation of international sanctions and that Pyongyang is getting “closer every day” to being able to deliver a long-range missile to the United States.

“Russia is not helping us at all with North Korea,” Trump said during an Oval Office interview with Reuters. “What China is helping us with, Russia is denting. In other words, Russia is making up for some of what China is doing.”
...
He would not say whether the United States has been considering a limited, pre-emptive attack to show the North that the United States means business.

“We’re playing a very, very hard game of poker and you don’t want to reveal your hand,” he said.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


When this comes out I hope that everyone posting excerpts in these threads will be kind enough to wrap them in huge content warnings not do so.
posted by Candleman at 11:25 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Dear God/Godess/Godhead:
Please please please please please keep Donald Trump's little general out of the public discourse. Please.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:26 AM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Republicans set the precedent for the presidents sex life as public knowledge, and an impeachable offense, during the Clinton years. I want every last detail public, and I want every last Republican and evangelical leader made to answer graphic questions on the record, just like they made Democrats. That’s the game now, and it’s their turn. Don’t let them off easy because it makes us vomit.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:28 AM on January 17, 2018 [87 favorites]


Districts are a terrible idea.

That's overly bold. There's a lot of good reasons to have politicians beholden to the success of a somewhat constrained area. The most extreme example would be if you had an area of, say, 5 square miles more prone to flooding. Without even a single person explicitly dependent on that area for votes it becomes a lot easier to just abandon those folks, make decisions that ignore them or their needs, etc. We already see how this can happen with entire cities a la Flint. We can maintain some cohesion with multi-member districts or dual-overlay districts or whatever rather than just entirely tossing the entire concept.

Our situation where these big land masses get disproportionate representation isn't best solved by slewing into the extreme the other direction.
posted by phearlez at 11:29 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


Just a suggestion that we take MeTa concerns (about something that hasn’t happened yet, no less) to MeTa.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:30 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


(I also apologize for this mental image, but the phrase was "inadvertently dried up his secretions more than I intended to")

Jackson kept trying to describe him as rippling-muscled bronze demigod, but here he lets slip that he's actually Secretions Manager for a sickly 3rd-stage Guild Navigator.

If the President of the United States took so much Sudafed that he couldn't talk right during an event designed to quell violence in the Middle East, that's a shocking scandal.

Long-term overuse and misuse of over-the-counter antihistamines (including uppers like Sudafed and downers like Benadryl) could certainly account both for Trump's druggy behaviors and his (and his court's) insistence that he doesn't take illicit or "real" drugs, while not appearing on lists of his prescribed medications.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:30 AM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


The way I see the US political cycle is that the Forces of Containment (FOC) work for a while, to the point that American civil society starts to look like it has matured and moved on from it's racist past, and in the process the good guys start to disengage, thinking history has moved on - we're done. But we're never done. Oligarchs and racists regroup and chip away at the gains made, fine tune their message, and before you know it you get Nixon, Reagan, the Tea Party, Trump, etc.

Gettting Better Over Time is a classic Western fallacy rooted, perhaps, in the success of scientific and technological development. (Marx was an especially naive believer.) I don't think it holds up.

But on race specifically, it will be very hard to maintain the racism of Trump's generation because of demographic changes and the end of the worst racist policies, such as the anti-miscegenation laws (only voided in 1967!!) and openly racist housing policies of the 1940s-1960s (with African Americans literally barred by neighborhood covenants, excluded from loans, red-lined, etc.)

A bunch of random developments such as adoption of foreign children, Vietnam-era GIs marrying Asian women, mail-order brides, the success of some immigrant groups, the popularity of anime, and the depiction of diversity in film and TV mean that the stark racism of the 1960s and 1970s is now more foreign to post-Millennials than diversity is. It's normal to date different ethnicities now, not even remarkable. So I'm optimistic in this one case, in the U.S.
posted by msalt at 11:33 AM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Republicans set the precedent for the presidents sex life as public knowledge, and an impeachable offense, during the Clinton years.

But this time, if for nothing else but our own sanity, could we try impeaching for something else? Please?
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:39 AM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Right wing actor Adam Baldwin's response [via Twitter] to the Stormy Daniels story:
Why should American social conservatives care about what consenting adults do in the privacy of their own homes?
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:50 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Huh.
Kentucky's GOP Senate Caucus Chair is introducing a marijuana legalization bill right now.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 AM on January 17, 2018 [34 favorites]


I'm quite sure once Mueller's done with him he'll leave office either via resignation or impeachment due to his misdeeds.

I am certainly not eager for the gory details of Trump's sex life to go public, but I figure this may continue the process of revealing which nominally Christian conservative groups are actually completely morally bankrupt. I think a lot of America is waking up as a result of the debacle in the White House and I am hopeful that will extend beyond just R and D to religious groups too.
posted by Sublimity at 11:51 AM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


The Daily podcast had a recent episode on the previous Olympic Games held in Seoul, very interesting in light of our present circumstances. When Seoul was granted the 1988 Olympic Games, NKorea tried to muscle in as a co-host. When that didn’t work out they blew up KAL flight 858, with loss of life to all onboard. Ronald Reagan responded with diplomacy as did SKorea. The games went off without any problems.

I really don’t like to imagine how Trump would respond to such a threat today.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 11:52 AM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Well, thanks to Adam Baldwin's Twitter feed I learned that this is an actual product, for sale, that you can buy and...customize a gun with? I don't know anything about guns, so dare I ask what the "Grab Pussy" setting is?
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:54 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Sudafed doesn't dry the mouth. A lot of antihistamines do, but Sudafed is an anti-congestant.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:55 AM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Filed Under "Things That Sound Like They May Be Innuendo But Are Not Intended As Such: ". . . riding to another hole on the same golf cart together."
posted by exlotuseater at 11:58 AM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


It's only Twitter, but:

Brandon Friedman, @BFriedmanDC: .@hughhewitt tried to shield Tom Cotton with Cotton's military service and spent 24 hours getting dunked on by veterans

The screencap is something nice to see.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:58 AM on January 17, 2018 [29 favorites]


Kentucky's GOP Senate Caucus Chair is introducing a marijuana legalization bill right now.

Legal weed saves lives, and Kentucky has been hit, early and hard, by the opioid crisis - about which, the Trump administration is doing nothing of substance. Even if Kentucky Republicans' rationale is "keep them alive so they can work" it beats reefer madness, I guess. Confederate Keebler Elf is not going to be able to put this particular horse back in the barn.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:59 AM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


Huh. Kentucky's GOP Senate Caucus Chair is introducing a marijuana legalization bill right now.

Guessing it's a combo of "we see the writing on the wall and don't want to let Dems totally own this popular policy stance" + "huh so Colorado sure is making a lot of money" + "maybe this could have some impact on the opiate crisis."
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:59 AM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Repealing the Cole memo is starting to seem like it might really blow up in Sessions's face.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:02 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Sorry for the stupid and possibly repeat question: If the gubmint shuts down, does that mean Mueller does too?
posted by yoga at 12:03 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


I learned that this is an actual product, for sale, that you can buy and...customize a gun with?

Behold the beauty of USA Gun laws. That hunk of metal is, itself, a firearm. Everything else you tack on to make it actually shoot is not controlled and can be freely purchased off eBay or at your local Gun Show without restriction.
posted by achrise at 12:03 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


If the gubmint shuts down, does that mean Mueller does too?

Nope (CNN).
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:04 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


Jonathan Swan, Inside the room: What Steve Bannon told Congress yesterday. There's a bunch in here, and it's clear everything is being leaked to advance one agenda or another, but this bit is significant:
Steve Bannon made one conspicuous slip up in his closed-door hearing on Tuesday with the House Intelligence Committee, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the confidential proceedings. Bannon admitted that he'd had conversations with Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016.
...
Trey Gowdy, who led the Republican questioning, pressed Bannon hard on his description of Don Junior's Trump Tower meeting as "treasonous." Gowdy asked Bannon whether he would consider it treason for somebody close to him to approach Wikileaks' Julian Assange to get opposition research on Hillary Clinton. Bannon replied that such a scenario would be bad judgment. Then Gowdy produced emails from a Cambridge Analytica employee — the Trump campaign data firm closely affiliated with Bannon — boasting of just such contacts with Assange. Bannon claimed this was the first time he'd seen these emails (though they've been in the news.)
Sorry for the stupid and possibly repeat question: If the gubmint shuts down, does that mean Mueller does too?

It's a great question! DOJ says Mueller's investigation would continue in the event of a shutdown.
posted by zachlipton at 12:04 PM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


Not sure what state you reside in, but here in California, "friendly OTC" and "put your name on a list" describes all Sudafed.

All states are required to use some sort of logging of ephedrine purchasing (and other meth precursors) by virtue of the Combat Methamphetamine act. Thirty-six states use the National Registry of Pseudoephedrine Abusers (NPLEx), with 34 of those mandated by state law, which coordinates across state lines. But everywhere logs you in some way.
posted by phearlez at 12:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Thanks Rust and Zach. I love you both.
posted by yoga at 12:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Sorry for the stupid and possibly repeat question: If the gubmint shuts down, does that mean Mueller does too?

Most likely not. Law enforcement agencies will be considered “essential employees”, and therefore have to work regardless of whether they’re paid on time. For the lawyers on Muellers team, worst case they might miss a pay check or two, but none of them are hurting for cash. The paralegals on staff and all the thousands of TSA agents it might be a different story, but they can’t stop Mueller’s work just by being unable to run payroll on time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:07 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


A prophecy: before this is all over, someone will testify under oath about Donald Trump's weiner


Why not? Trump did, er, bring it up during a primary debate.
posted by Gelatin at 12:10 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Does it look as if the shutdown will happen? I've not heard a great deal about any possible CRs, so I'm a tad worried.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:11 PM on January 17, 2018


Not that the Sudafed derail needs to keep going but:

Sudafed doesn't dry the mouth. A lot of antihistamines do, but Sudafed is an anti-congestant.

The Sudafed that is actually psuedo-ephedrine (the kind you have to ask the pharmacist for because of methpanic), most certainly does cause dry mouth. The useless stuff that doesn't work, the sudafed with phenylephrine, does nothing, as far as I can tell, including not making your mouth dry.
posted by dis_integration at 12:13 PM on January 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


[Ezra Klein tweet] Crazy reveal from porn star Stormy Daniels: Trump's GOP has let more than 100 days go by without reauthorizing the Children's Health Insurance Program, and the president himself is the main obstacle to a bipartisan deal to save Dreamers!
posted by AFABulous at 12:15 PM on January 17, 2018 [95 favorites]


Mod note: One deleted; enough on Sudafed.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:18 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Does it look as if the shutdown will happen? I've not heard a great deal about any possible CRs, so I'm a tad worried.

Well, let's put it this way. Both Pelosi and Schumer have said "if the Dems get nothing from this bill, particularly about DACA, we won't give them one vote. Let them pass it themselves." The House Wingnut Caucus is using that as leverage to try to get some of their more draconian fever dreams voted on instead of a more mainstream CR, else THEY won't vote for it. And Turtle has said "the biggest obstacle on DACA negotiations is that we have no idea what the President wants, so rather than send him a bill that he'll veto we're waiting for him to tell us what he wants."

So yeah. Get your shutdown popcorn ready.
posted by delfin at 12:18 PM on January 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


It’s too early to predict shutdown probability, things sound worse than usual right now, but these things only becomes real when there’s a bill on the floor. Watch for the House vote late tomorrow, if that goes down, hold on because shit just got real. If the House can pass a CR, the Senate will likely follow and we’ll do this again next month right before DACA expires for real.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:21 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Does it look as if the shutdown will happen? I've not heard a great deal about any possible CRs, so I'm a tad worried.

Mayyyyybe. There are a bunch of paths that could lead to a shutdown. The Freedom Caucus could blow up a vote for a CR in the House (they're already threatening) or Dems could actually not cave and the thing could fall in the Senate (there's a lot of pressure on this. Sen. Carper was rumored that he'd vote for a CR, and he just had to rush to say he's leaning no. Sen. Graham, of all people, is running around saying he won't vote for any more CRs). And if there's a shutdown, the expectation is that Trump lashes out at Congress rather than Democrats.

I still think there could be a deal, watch this space tomorrow, as Harry Reid said, "magic happens on Thursday nights", but a shutdown is looking increasingly likely.

McConnell publicly trying to figure out what kind of DACA bill Trump would sign is not encouraging if you were looking for any signs of competent governance in the future:
I am looking for something that President Trump supports and he has not yet indicated what measure he is willing to sign. As soon as we figure out what he is for then I would be convinced that we are not just spinning our wheels going through this issue on the floor but actually dealing with a bill that has a chance to become law.
Yeah... Remember how just last week, pre-shitholegate, Republicans were talking about how Trump was such a good negotiator and was working out exactly what had to be in the deal?
posted by zachlipton at 12:28 PM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


There’s a really easy way to find out what Trump would and would not sign...pass a good compromise bill that funds the government for a year (or two), does CHIP, fixes DACA, and lets Republicans have their extra border security, and dare him to veto it. And if he does, see if they have the votes to override the veto. Make clear that if he vetoes, they’ll blame him entirely for the resulting shutdown. Trump is actually a fucking moron and weakling, if they hit him hard he’d almost certainly fold.

But Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan literally cannot do their jobs, they don’t even know what the jobs they have ARE. If Congress was still an equal branch of government, they wouldn’t need to ask Dear Leaders insane position on basic functions.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:42 PM on January 17, 2018 [45 favorites]


President Trump would sign literally anything Congress would be willing to pass, in order to avoid a government shutdown coinciding with his one-year anniversary. To pretend otherwise is to look for an excuse for Congress failing to compromise among themselves. Specifically, it's an excuse for Republicans who are nominally in favor of protecting DACA recipients to ignore the issue of DACA entirely.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:45 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]



Right wing actor Adam Baldwin's response [via Twitter] to the Stormy Daniels story:
Why should American social conservatives care about what consenting adults do in the privacy of their own homes?
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:50 AM on January 17 [2 favorites +] [!]


Wait. I thought that was exactly social conservatives whole schtick. I mean, what else do they do?
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:54 PM on January 17, 2018 [34 favorites]


Republicans set the precedent for the presidents sex life as public knowledge, and an impeachable offense, during the Clinton years.

Not just during the Clinton years. Trump held a photo-op before the third presidential debate with three women that accused President Bill Clinton of sexual harassment in the 1990s. Trump's campaign tried to seat the women in the VIP box next to the stage.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:57 PM on January 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


Congress Produces Drama While Mueller Produces Results

Steve Bannon stonewalled a House committee, then promptly agreed to an interview with the special counsel—the latest example of how Mueller is moving ahead as lawmakers feud and spin their wheels. (David Graham / The Atlantic)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:01 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Just spitballing here, but probably a lack of focus by our media organizations on the horrific policy decisions from the executive and legislative branches and real human impacts of such things, and more of a focus on horse-race politics, culture-war outrage, and other superficial nonsense. The more the focus is on things like shitholegate and Trump's personally unpalatable proclivities, the easier it is for people to get back into that us-v-them tribalism.

John Taylor Gatto:
Now, dumb people aren't just ignorant; they're the victims of non-thought-of, second-hand ideas. Dumb people are now well-informed about the opinions of Time magazine and CBS, The New York Times and the President; their job is to choose which pre-thought thoughts, which received opinions, they like best. The élite in this new empire of ignorance are those who know the most pre-thought thoughts.

Mass dumbness is vital to modern society. The dumb person is wonderfully flexible clay for psychological shaping by market research, government policymakers, public-opinion leaders and any other interest group. The more pre-thought thoughts a person has memorized, the easier it is to predict what choices he or she will make. What dumb people cannot do is think for themselves or ever be alone for very long without feeling crazy.
posted by LooseFilter at 1:02 PM on January 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


Trump had public affairs with his two previous marriages, the conservative Christians knew who exactly who he was.
posted by PenDevil at 1:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


oh weird its almost like republicans are being disingenuous when they say they are the party of family values
posted by entropicamericana at 1:09 PM on January 17, 2018 [77 favorites]


Jeet posted an insightful thread yesterday on why cultural conservatives seem so comfortable with the current president's sins:
With the rise of feminism & LGBT activism, conservatives started to look at Hefner & other smut merchants as upholder of traditional heteronormativity and gender norming. ... The Federalist: Hugh Hefner's "work celebrates the sexual complementarity that has bound men and women together since the dawn of time" Translation: porn is better than accepting trans people. .... As patriarchy is under fresh challenge, conservatives, including evangelical christians, are looking for allies where they can find them, including Trump's overt piggishness. .... The older conservatism was Patriarchy With the Mask of Chivalry. Women were promised protection in exchange for submission. Now the mask has come off.
posted by Space Coyote at 1:15 PM on January 17, 2018 [52 favorites]


Right wing actor Adam Baldwin's response [via Twitter] to the Stormy Daniels story

This is rich coming from the guy who popularized a meme that wrongly accused Zoe Quinn of whoring herself out for game reviews (his characterization, which was a lie on many levels), and then joined in the harassment campaign against her and many others.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:22 PM on January 17, 2018 [30 favorites]


Michael Wolff's 'Fire and Fury' to Become TV Series
Endeavor Content — the financing and sales arm formed in October between sister companies William Morris Endeavor and IMG — has purchased film and television rights to the No. 1 best-selling book. The massive deal is said to be in the seven-figure range. Endeavor Content plans to adapt the book as a TV series. A network is not yet attached, as Endeavor will now begin shopping the project.

Wolff will executive produce the series, with veteran Channel 4 and BBC executive Michael Jackson — now CEO of indie producer Two Cities Television — also on board to produce.
posted by octothorpe at 1:23 PM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


why cultural conservatives seem so comfortable with the current president's sins

That's interesting, but maybe overcomplicated - I have heard directly from the mouths of social conservatives that for them, ultimately, it's not about the character of the individual running for office, it's about what judges they will appoint.
posted by Miko at 1:23 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


WaPo, Ed O'Keefe, Kelly calls some of Trump’s campaign pledges on immigration, wall ‘uninformed,’ meeting attendees say
White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly told Democratic lawmakers Wednesday that the United States will never construct a physical wall along the entire stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border and that some of President Trump’s campaign promises on immigration were “uninformed.”

The comments put Kelly at odds with Trump, who repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he would build a border wall that Mexico would pay for, not U.S. taxpayers.
...
Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.), the original sponsor of the Dream Act that would permanently legalize at least 690,000 dreamers, asked Kelly to clarify Trump’s definition of a border wall.

Certain things are said during the campaign that are not fully informed,” Kelly said.

“One thing is to campaign, another thing is to govern. It’s really hard,” he added later.
What Kelly did not provide, however, is any clarity on what Trump wants in a deal (which, see above, is apparently something McConnell also lacks). He wants personal credit for not ending DACA immediately, but knew nothing of the Hurd/Aguilar bipartisan proposal (DACA for border security funds).
posted by zachlipton at 1:24 PM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


With the rise of feminism & LGBT activism, conservatives started to look at Hefner & other smut merchants as upholder of traditional heteronormativity and gender norming

The real test of how far they'll bend before they break would be, of course, one of Trumps former mistresses or trystresses coming forward with evidence he had encouraged/paid for an abortion.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 1:24 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


Here's the full Jeet Heer article in the New Republic expanding on the tweetstorm.

Further evidence that evangelicals' "morality" is but skin-deep comes from the fact that 72 percent of white evangelicals now think that personal immorality is A-OK for elected officials - up from 30 percent in 2011. (The percentage, in other words, has more than doubled.) As one evangelical put it:
“Yes, it is morally evil to commit adultery. It is also morally wrong to approve of committing adultery. But that does not mean it is morally evil to vote for someone who has committed adultery,” Grudem wrote. “In a world affected by sin, voting for morally flawed people is unavoidable. Voting for the candidate you think will be best for the country (or do the least harm to the country) is not a morally evil action, so this objection does not apply.”
I've always wondered why "Judges!" does not motivate Democratic turnout (especially in midterms) the way it does Republicans. Democrats are not less intelligent nor are they less informed. But as long as I can remember, yelling "Judges! Supreme Court!" doesn't seem to work as well on Democrats.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:34 PM on January 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


The real test of how far they'll bend before they break would be, of course, one of Trumps former mistresses or trystresses coming forward with evidence he had encouraged/paid for an abortion.

We've already had a test run of this at the Congressional level that ended with resignation, no idea if that ideological spear will pierce Trump's hide any more deeply than various other appeals to supposedly fiercely-held conservative principles did in 2016.
posted by Strange Interlude at 1:37 PM on January 17, 2018


Reuters has updated their interview story, still no transcript that I can tell.

But, uh, the President suggested the last three Presidents left the issue of North Korea to him because he scored the highest on that cognitive test.
He blamed his three immediate predecessors, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for failing to resolve the crisis and, a day after his doctor gave him a perfect score on a cognitive test, suggested he had the mental acuity to solve it.

“I guess they all realized they were going to have to leave it to a president that scored the highest on tests,” he said.
This would be the test that determines whether you can do things like remember words and numbers for a few minutes or draw a clock. It's not, you know, an exam to see how well you'd do at managing a goddamn nuclear crisis. It's not the kind of test you brag about acing.
posted by zachlipton at 1:38 PM on January 17, 2018 [108 favorites]


guys i know this may come as a shock, but im going to go ahead and suggest that evangelicals are more concerned about maintaining white male supremacy than they are listening to the words jesus said
posted by entropicamericana at 1:40 PM on January 17, 2018 [160 favorites]


Miko: I have heard directly from the mouths of social conservatives that for them, ultimately, it's not about the character of the individual running for office, it's about what judges they will appoint.

True, but any Republican would appoint pretty much the same judges. Yet in the primary, evangelicals flocked to Trump, not to a straightforward social/religious conservative. I chalk that more to the appeal of his racism than the appeal of his misogyny, but regardless, we're talking about a product whose features the buyers feel obliged to pretend are shameful bugs.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:44 PM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


guys i know this may come as a shock, but im going to go ahead and suggest that evangelicals are more concerned about maintaining white male supremacy than they are listening to the words jesus said

From Jeet Heer's The Triumph of Porn Over Social Conservatism:
It’s easy for liberals to decry the hypocrisy of Republicans, the putative party of family values, embracing Trump as its avatar. But there is no real hypocrisy here. The core value is patriarchy, which can take different forms. There is an older patriarchy which wears the mask of chivalry, and offers women protection in exchange for submissiveness. But the age of chivalry is no more. We now have raw patriarchy, which asserts its rights through naked displays of power. And the president, with his porn star mistresses, his boasting of sexual assaults, and even his phallic tweets about the size of his nuclear button, is the perfect leader for conservatives’ post-chivalric world.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:49 PM on January 17, 2018 [41 favorites]


Jeff Flake is done giving his “please book me on CNN and give me a spot at the Harvard Kennedy school in 7 months” speech, just in time to vote for a funding bill that uses 7 million kids as hostages agasint passing his alleged top priority before leaving government, while also doing nothing to combat Trumps corruption.

Forget the corruption, this asshole just yesterday affirmatively voted to give Trump's administration free rein in surveilling its own citizens. I guess that's not a power he's worried about giving to Stalin II.

Fuck Jeff Flake and everyone else who is hand-washing about Trump but can't seem to stop themselves from voting even more power to an administration they claim is evil.
posted by Copronymus at 2:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


Saying you're smart because you "aced" the MoCA is like saying you're a top athlete because you can walk 100 meters.
posted by 0xFCAF at 2:10 PM on January 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


Re: surveillance, congresspeople on both sides seem to be proceeding as if the military and law-enforcement agencies have a significant degree of autonomy from the day-to-day White House, and can be trusted with powers that an unchecked Trump would abuse. I have no idea how warranted that is.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:13 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


I have heard directly from the mouths of social conservatives that for them, ultimately, it's not about the character of the individual running for office, it's about what judges they will appoint

Or, in other words, the ends justify the means.

Lavrenti Beria would be proud.
posted by acb at 2:16 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


They should add some easily-aceable tests to the Presidential Daily Activity Pack along with the favorable news clippings and 10,000-word-briefings-condensed-into-single-page-cartoons.
posted by contraption at 2:16 PM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


This would be the test that determines whether you can do things like remember words and numbers for a few minutes or draw a clock. It's not, you know, an exam to see how well you'd do at managing a goddamn nuclear crisis. It's not the kind of test you brag about acing.

Having had some experience with the MoCA: I would be shocked if 95% of the people reading this thread didn't score 30/30 on it, and the remaining 5% might get 29. The clinical cutoff for it was 26, but recently it is being suggested it should be 23 in order to lower the rate of false positives.

JFC; a good score on the MoCA just indicates that you have normal cognitive function (you can remember things, you can follow instructions, you are oriented to where you are, etc. I mean, here it is see for yourself). It was designed - and does a decent job - of being a quick tool to assist a doctor in determining if mild cognitive impairment or a dementia might be present (and to be really clear, a full diagnostic workup for dementia should include a lot more than a MoCA; it is a diagnosis made by excluding all the other possible causes for someone exhibiting cognitive challenges). It is not a test of IQ (which have their own huge fucking biases and problems).

If Trump is going to extol his virtues based on 30/30 on the MoCA, I think the media should challenge every person in America to take the test and see how they score and how prepared they feel to deal with the NK situation.
posted by nubs at 2:17 PM on January 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


In the Reuters article linked by zachliption, Trump has some uncharacteristically harsh words about his favorite country in the whole wide world. He blames Russia for helping North Korea skirt sanctions, and contrasts this with China being more helpful with respect to the USA's goals.

The article goes on to provide a cause for this deviation from his normal Pro-Putin fawning -- Trump wants us to believe that a better relationship with Russia would fix that problem, by way of appeasement.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:18 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


guys i know this may come as a shock, but im going to go ahead and suggest that evangelicals are more concerned about maintaining white male supremacy than they are listening to the words jesus said

To which Trump replied, "Pleased ta meet you—hope you guess my naaaaame!"
posted by XMLicious at 2:37 PM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Trump had public affairs with his two previous marriages, the conservative Christians knew who exactly who he was.

And they should never be allowed to forget it.
posted by chris24 at 2:46 PM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


it's times like this i miss the blink tag:

CONSERVATIVES DON'T CARE ABOUT LOOKING HYPOCRITICAL

why is this so hard for liberals to understand?
posted by entropicamericana at 2:50 PM on January 17, 2018 [75 favorites]


"would continue to "secede every Thursday until further notice.""

This is my new #Resist plan: seceding every Thursday until further notice.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:51 PM on January 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


“I guess they all realized they were going to have to leave it to a president that scored the highest on tests,” he said.

— This would be the test that determines whether you can do things like remember words and numbers for a few minutes or draw a clock.
It's 3AM and your children are sleeping. And there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing.
Something's happening in the world.

Who do you want drawing pictures of that clock with the big hand on the twelve and the little hand on the three?

Your vote will decide who picks up those crayons. Your vote will decide who makes those doodles.

Vote trump in 2020.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:54 PM on January 17, 2018 [35 favorites]


why is this so hard for liberals to understand?

Because for them, these things do matter. They don't realize the extent that conservatives sold their soul for white supremacy.
posted by NoxAeternum at 3:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


CONSERVATIVES DON'T CARE ABOUT LOOKING HYPOCRITICAL

why is this so hard for liberals to understand?


Liberals understand that it’s true, but not why — because there is no good reason why apart from “fuck all y’all” which is not exactly the most thoughtful nor thought out philosophical stance.
posted by Celsius1414 at 3:08 PM on January 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


But as long as I can remember, yelling "Judges! Supreme Court!" doesn't seem to work as well on Democrats.

This is true - a general lack of strategic thinking has prevailed. Because the Democrats, more than the right, are a collection of variously strong and weak interests and issues around which different individuals feel different levels of commitment, the left is a lot harder to wrangle around the pursuit of an endpoint goal that may require sacrifice on other points than the GOP is.

I have certainly spent a lot of time saying "judges! judges!" to people, because i care greatly about repro rights and immigrant rights and policing, but people with other or additional priorities have often resisted that as a single decision metric.

They don't realize the extent that conservatives sold their soul for white supremacy.

This is so, so true. Until we confront that reality, we aren't going anywhere.
posted by Miko at 3:10 PM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


Fuck Jeff Flake and everyone else who is hand-washing about Trump but can't seem to stop themselves from voting even more power to an administration they claim is evil.

You mean like Nancy Pelosi? And Claire McCaskill?

The Democratic party has sort of shown its stripes by supporting that horseshit bill but continuing to bleat about the pus-filled donut of a President we have. We need a party that will follow through on stripping power from the executive branch and extricate this country from the perpetual global war we find ourselves in.

I don't think the Democrats are that party. Which is too bad, because this moment is a golden opportunity to campaign on that promise.
posted by rocketman at 3:10 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Michelle Allison (who is on Metafilter somewhere I assume since she references it in this tweet thread) had an illuminating theory (twitter thread) about what motivates people at the top of the social/economic hierarchy to keep demanding more even while already having the very most in power and wealth.

For those who don't want to/can't get on twitter, the gist is that it's an inability to reckon with death. No matter how much power they amass it doesn't change their mortality, but rather than accept and understand that, they keep seeking something else to stave off death. The people lower on the social ladder ultimately pay the price for that fear.
posted by Emmy Rae at 3:18 PM on January 17, 2018 [36 favorites]


I have certainly spent a lot of time saying "judges! judges!" to people, because i care greatly about repro rights and immigrant rights and policing, but people with other or additional priorities have often resisted that as a single decision metric.

Many years ago I got into a political argument with a coworker and I brought up the issue of the Supreme Court and abortion as a reason not to vote Republican. "Oh," she said, "they would never actually take away abortion rights. Women would be too angry." And I just sort of blinked at her.

I think a lot of non-right-wing folks (because I'm sure she would have considered herself "independent") think that someone would step in and stop the government from actually hurting people or taking away their rights. It's a form of privilege, I suppose, that middle class educated whites often have, that says "well the wingnuts won't actually be allowed to do that" and so they focus on other priorities.

A lot of those people have been truly shocked in the last year to discover that government can actually be very harmful and there's not a stern guardian of the constitution built in to stop whackjobs from using power any way they want.
posted by threeturtles at 3:32 PM on January 17, 2018 [62 favorites]


> Liberals understand that it’s true, but not why — because there is no good reason why apart from “fuck all y’all” which is not exactly the most thoughtful nor thought out philosophical stance.

Republicans and the Purple Heart Band-Aid
Just how bad was it? Well, for one thing, I remember many conversations with conservatives in which they dismissed Kerry’s Bronze and Silver Stars and three Purple Hearts as, “What? He got shot in the ass!” In point of fact, Kerry did get a small shrapnel wound on his behind — the other four metals were just lost to conservative memory. But I was just amazed at the way conservatives treated him. I’m not a great lover of the military. But this went against everything that they claimed they believed in. They are the ones who claim that the military is so important and how we absolutely must bow down to every person in uniform lest it cause us to lose all our wars.

With regard to this, Digby reminded me that all of this was not just during the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth nonsense. The picture above is from the Republican National Convention in 2004. It is just one of many that show the delegates wearing band-aids with purple hearts printed on them. Oh yes, they felt very proud mocking the man who actually fought in Vietnam, even while they were voting for two men who were highly successful in their elite efforts to stay out of that war.

This all shows everything that you need to know about the modern Republican Party. It is power over honor — always. They are a great shame to this country.
Digby called it "situational sanctimony", which is a nice, pithy way to summarize their position on just about everything, from what makes a war hero to how objectionable pornography and infidelity are.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:34 PM on January 17, 2018 [101 favorites]


Gawd, it takes so little to make me happy anymore. Today's entry: all the talking heads everywhere have Embraced the Euphemism and, in place of "shithole" are now going with the prissy, puerile "s-hole," so now it sounds like they're saying "asshole" 40 times an hour. It's both delightful and totally accurate -- "Everyone who attended the asshole meeting," "the asshole controversy," "the racist asshole remarks" . . . . I've basically been tittering like an eighth grader all day long.
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:39 PM on January 17, 2018 [31 favorites]




WHAT. THE. FUCK. NYT? No editorials in print, so they can do this instead:
The Times editorial board has been sharply critical of the Trump presidency, on grounds of policy and personal conduct. Not all readers have been persuaded. In the spirit of open debate, and in hopes of helping readers who agree with us better understand the views of those who don’t, we wanted to let Mr. Trump’s supporters make their best case for him as the first year of his presidency approaches its close. Tomorrow we’ll present some letters from readers who voted for Mr. Trump but are now disillusioned, and from those reacting to today’s letters and our decision to provide Trump voters this platform.
Thing is, I read the damn letters, in the spirit of open-mindedly embracing whatever they're trying to accomplish with this. There's very little of any note at all, just a bunch of "extremely boring Yelp reviews of a presidency."

It's simply a bunch of white people who think their life is swell. They got a tax cut and a Supreme Court Justice, the stock market is up, and some of them would prefer he tweet less, but others like that he speaks his mind. One is a former hedge fund trader/associate professor of finance who is happy because he thinks volatility and chaos is great for capitalists. There's just nothing of value in any of these letters, certainly no new perspective being brought to the table.

Also, @josh_wingrove: U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen's trip to Toronto tomorrow has cancelled, per a release from her Canadian counterpart. No reason cited.

The Canadians probably demanded to speak to someone capable of remembering what takes place during meetings.
posted by zachlipton at 3:53 PM on January 17, 2018 [36 favorites]


. "Oh," she said, "they would never actually take away abortion rights. Women would be too angry." And I just sort of blinked at her.

I used to believe this too and used to tell my wife they were just using it as a wedge issue (she never believed me to her credit), then the 2010 Tea Party takeover happened and they proposed something like 1000 new abortion restrictions in that first month. Now I'm not sure how I was ever more wrong about something. They really do want The Handmaid's Tale.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:54 PM on January 17, 2018 [45 favorites]


> For those who don't want to/can't get on twitter, the gist is that it's an inability to reckon with death.

Sometimes I wonder if Trump truly understands that one day he too will die, like everyone else. His ego must have a hell of a time dealing with that.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:54 PM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Brian Stelter [via Twitter]: On Thursday, the NYT is not running any editorials in print. The ed board is devoting the page to letters from Trump supporters.

29% of America strongly approves of Trump. 49% strongly disapproves.

When does the 49% get its own page?
posted by chris24 at 3:55 PM on January 17, 2018 [97 favorites]


Tomorrow we’ll present some letters from readers who voted for Mr. Trump but are now disillusioned

NYT's version of balance is people who voted for Trump and regret it and people who voted for Trump and don't.

There is an actual majority of voters outside of this binary! I even go to a diner sometimes. Find me! I look great in black and white photos.
posted by Emmy Rae at 3:56 PM on January 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


> Now volatility is our friend. The more chaos, the better! Entrepreneurship up. Optimism up. Good old American problem solving is back! You know who loves change? Capitalists. Mr. Trump has led us on that spiritual exodus.

These people are fucking crazy.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:56 PM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


The Old Gray...well, their behavior of late seems less than Ladylike.
posted by Celsius1414 at 3:57 PM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Have I somehow managed to miss the Fake News Awards today?
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 3:58 PM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Have I somehow managed to miss the Fake News Awards today?

They swept the awards.
posted by chris24 at 3:59 PM on January 17, 2018


The Times has always had problems, but have they *ever* toadied to this extent to a President? Jesus.
posted by emjaybee at 4:02 PM on January 17, 2018 [13 favorites]


There is an actual majority of voters outside of this binary! I even go to a diner sometimes. Find me! I look great in black and white photos.

But do you ever drive a cab and wish that Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi could sit down and agree to give Paul Ryan everything he wants ?
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 4:03 PM on January 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


WaPo, U.S. troops will stay in Syria to counter ‘strategic’ threat from Iran
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday committed the United States to an indefinite military presence in Syria, citing a range of policy goals that extend far beyond the defeat of the Islamic State as conditions for American troops to go home.

But a crisis unfolding on the Syria-Turkey border that threatens to embroil the U.S. military in a wider regional conflict underscored how hard it will be for the relatively small U.S. presence in Syria to influence the outcome of the conflict there.

Speaking in a major Syria-policy address hosted at Stanford University by the Hoover Institution, Tillerson listed vanquishing al-Qaeda, ousting Iran and securing a peace settlement that excludes President Bashar al-Assad as among the goals of a continued presence in Syria of about 2,000 American troops currently deployed in a Kurdish-controlled corner of northeastern Syria.
*glances at the dumbass NYT letters and sees "an end to needless foreign wars" as one of Trump's acomplishments. throws things.*
posted by zachlipton at 4:03 PM on January 17, 2018 [21 favorites]


The Times editorial board has been sharply critical of the Ptolemaic system, on grounds of "what the hell is Venus doing?" and "hey, Jupiter has moons!" Not all readers have been persuaded. In the spirit of open debate, and in hopes of helping readers who agree with us better understand the views of those who don’t, we wanted to let Mr. Ptolemy's supporters make their best case for him as the 1868th anniversary of Geographia approaches. Tomorrow we’ll present some letters from readers who supported Mr. Ptolemy but are now disillusioned, and from those reacting to today’s letters and our decision to provide Ptolemy supporters this platform.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:06 PM on January 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


Have I somehow managed to miss the Fake News Awards today?

National treasure Chrissy Teigen brings us a live look at the Fake News Awards.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:08 PM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday committed the United States to an indefinite military presence in Syria, citing a range of policy goals that extend far beyond the defeat of the Islamic State as conditions for American troops to go home.

Isn't this the job of either 1) the SecDef, or 2) the CinC?
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:09 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Iran says planned US-backed force inside Syria would fan war.
And from Al Jazeera ~ New US-backed Syria force: Five things you should know.
Including this: -
A military operation in northern Syria against the city of Afrin - controlled by the Syrian Kurdish armed group YPG - will be launched "in the days ahead", Erdogan said on the issue, accusing the US of forming a "terror army".
posted by adamvasco at 4:12 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Republican voters get what they voted for in Kentucky: ‘Flabbergasted.’ Supporters of 70 programs [Gov. Matt] Bevin wants to chop respond with shock.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:12 PM on January 17, 2018 [24 favorites]


I clicked on the NYT link. I apologize.

Remarkably, the justification is that the Times editorial board has been consistently anti-Trump, so they feel the need to publish an opposing point of view. Do they not read their own paper? They realize it has a news section, right? Maybe they don't.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:14 PM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


NYT: Trump’s Physical Revealed Serious Heart Concerns, Outside Experts Say
Cardiologists not associated with the White House said Wednesday that President Trump’s physical exam revealed serious heart concerns, including very high levels of so-called bad cholesterol, which raises the risk that Mr. Trump could have a heart attack while in office.

Dr. Ronny L. Jackson, a rear admiral and the White House physician, said Tuesday in his report on the president’s medical condition that Mr. Trump was in “excellent” cardiac health despite having an LDL cholesterol level of 143, well above the desired level of 100 or less.

Dr. David Maron, the director of preventive cardiology at Stanford University’s medical school, said Wednesday that it was alarming that the president’s LDL levels remain above 140 even though he is taking 10 milligrams of Crestor, a powerful drug that is used to lower cholesterol levels to well below 100.

Dr. Maron said he would “definitely” be worried about Mr. Trump’s risk for having a heart attack if the president were one of his patients. Asked if Mr. Trump is in perfect health, Dr. Maron offered a blunt reply: “God, no.”

Other cardiologists also disputed Dr. Jackson’s rosy assessment of the president’s heart health. Several said Mr. Trump’s goal should be to get his LDL below 100, or even under 70. He has a real risk of having a heart attack or stroke, especially considering his weight and lack of exercise, they said.

Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist at the Scripps Research Institute, said that it is impossible to ignore the dangers of the president’s elevated cholesterol levels when providing an overall assessment of Mr. Trump’s health.

“That’s a really high LDL,” Dr. Topol said. “We’re talking about a 70-plus-year-old man who is obese and doesn’t exercise. Just looking at the lab value, you would raise a big red flag.”

He added: “I would never use the words ‘excellent health.’ How you could take these indices and say excellent health? That is completely contradicted.”
posted by chris24 at 4:22 PM on January 17, 2018 [56 favorites]


If you're wondering where Tillerson gets these ideas... Tillerson Prints Out Trump’s Tweets to Help Set Foreign Policy
According to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, however, they are a source of inspiration. While speaking with his predecessor Condoleezza Rice at a Stanford University event on Wednesday, Tillerson—who does not use social media himself—said his aides print out every tweet his boss sends and hand-deliver them to him. “The challenge is just getting caught up because I don’t even have a Twitter account that I can follow what he is tweeting, so my staff usually has to print his tweets out and hand them to me,” Tillerson told Rice. Then the secretary asks himself, “How do we take that and now use it?”

Tillerson’s comments prompted some raised eyebrows, given his own troubled relationship with Trump. In October, the president famously undercut Tillerson’s efforts to negotiate with North Korea, tweeting “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!” The following month, he declined to consult his advisers before unexpectedly praising Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s brutal crackdown on other members of the royal family, leaving Tillerson—once again—out of the loop. Within the State Department, the rumor is that the beleaguered secretary could resign before the end of the month.

On Wednesday, however, Tillerson defended their Twitter-based relationship. “I’ve actually concluded that’s not a bad system,” he insisted. According to the former ExxonMobil C.E.O., the inefficiencies in the process allow him to absorb “the early reactions” to any Trump tweet, which in turn enables him to respond more effectively. Still, Tillerson said, the president’s fondness for Twitter hasn’t changed his own opinion of the platform. “I am probably going to go to my grave and never have a social-media account.”
posted by zachlipton at 4:22 PM on January 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


because it is very important to support our journalistic institutions in this dark time of need i will be purchasing a dozen subscriptions to the NYT today so they can continue the critical, important work they do

of giving over an entire page to letters from Trump supporters

lol
posted by indubitable at 4:26 PM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


glances at the dumbass NYT letters and sees 'an end to needless foreign wars' as one of Trump's acomplishments. throws things

Could we maybe wrap up one of the ones we've already got going before we start another one?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:37 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Did they reprint the letters in the original crayon, or....?
posted by uosuaq at 4:37 PM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


"(I really, really want to see the clock he drew.)"

Here ya go.

(Courtesy of Cathy Wilcox, one of Australia's National Treasures.)
posted by Pinback at 4:41 PM on January 17, 2018 [22 favorites]


For those who don't want to/can't get on twitter, the gist is that it's an inability to reckon with death. No matter how much power they amass it doesn't change their mortality, but rather than accept and understand that, they keep seeking something else to stave off death. The people lower on the social ladder ultimately pay the price for that fear.

This, and this is all pretty clearly related to ego and general insecurity. This is the yawning emotional hole, the void, the missing piece that people try to fill with power, greed, sex, alcohol, even love. Or sometimes the drive to reproduce, to "own" families like an achievement trophy. It really comes down to the simple conflicting fears of ego and self importance yet feeling and knowing they are insecure and insignificant.

Within this base fear are things like the struggles with one's own dark thoughts. Or deeds and actions. If there's a struggle with these kinds of morals or ethics or empathy at all. And from this, the projection that everyone else is surely awful as well.

It manifest in many ways, but power seems to be the most consuming and damaging of all, to be so fearful of everyone and everything that control and order must be exerted at all costs - even at the cost of never having an enjoyable life worth living at all, until only fear and control is left.

If you're well adjusted with your place in the cosmos, knowing and accepting that ultimately you are insignificant, that you're a gnat in the face of the vastness of space and time isn't terrifying at all. It's actually fairly comforting.
posted by loquacious at 4:42 PM on January 17, 2018 [29 favorites]


Ryan’s Strategy May Be Backfiring, Earning GOP Blame for a Government Shutdown (Ed Kilgore, NY Mag)
If the House passes a hard-line Trumpian immigration bill before sending the spending bill over to the Senate, the whole gambit of making Senate Democrats look like the ones being unreasonable on immigration policy could fall apart. But more importantly, House Republicans could themselves produce the government shutdown they’d like either to avoid or blame on Democrats. It’s just not at all clear Congress would have the time to start all over and produce a bipartisan stopgap spending bill by Friday.

Yet if Ryan caves to Meadows’s demand for a vote on what is essentially Trump’s immigration policy, he may be sabotaging any chance of a bipartisan immigration deal, which has to happen before the spending crisis is finally resolved (i.e., when the final stopgap bill expires next month). Today’s report that White House chief of staff John Kelly may be undercutting the president’s position in talks with congressional Democrats is not likely to put POTUS in a conciliatory mood on the subject.

Maybe Meadows is just playing chicken and doesn’t have the votes to force his will on Ryan. But if not, Ryan may have fatally miscalculated what it will take to buy off these difficult people and confront the Senate with a united House Republican caucus. In trying to “jam” Senate Democrats, he may have simply given Mark Meadows the opportunity to jam him.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:44 PM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Now volatility is our friend. The more chaos, the better! Entrepreneurship up. Optimism up. Good old American problem solving is back! You know who loves change? Capitalists. Mr. Trump has led us on that spiritual exodus.

'American problem solving' can be parsed at least two different ways.
posted by srboisvert at 4:47 PM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Budowsky: Mega-landslide for Dems? (The Hill)
It is now possible that in the 2018 midterm elections Democrats win a mega-landslide, take control of the House by larger than expected margins, take control of the Senate and win surprising upset victories in gubernatorial and state legislative elections.

In my view the odds of this mega-landslide Democratic victory, which would surpass in scope even the classic wave election and be comparable to the massive victory of Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater in 1964, are about 30 percent.

With President Trump at stratospheric levels of national unpopularity, but fervently supported by a base that is small compared to the general electorate, Republicans face a political death trap. By pandering to the fervent but limited Trump base for primaries, they disastrously alienate and mobilize virtually everyone else against them for the general election.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:59 PM on January 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


Uh. Trump announced the fake news awards with a link to a page that says only "The site is temporarily offline, we are working to bring it back up. Please try back later."

Fake news on so many layers.
posted by zachlipton at 5:04 PM on January 17, 2018 [47 favorites]


Budowsky: Mega-landslide for Dems?

If this does happen, we need to remember the lesson of the squandered 60 seat veto proof majority of 2009 - Democrats will never do the right thing. Unless forced to. If we get another bite at a generational transformation, the next time I want more than a healthcare bill designed by the Heritage Foundation.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:05 PM on January 17, 2018 [38 favorites]


squandered 60 seat veto proof majority of 2009

It wasn't 60 seats. Lieberman stabbed us in the back on the public option. Obamacare was literally the only thing we could get through with 60 votes.
posted by Talez at 5:10 PM on January 17, 2018 [57 favorites]


If it's a link to... new information of some kind, "news" I guess we could call it... and the link does not actually give you that information, as if it were incorrect or broken in some way... huh. Seems like we should have a phrase for something like this.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 5:17 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


When does the 49% get its own page?

In the heart of Anti-Trump Country, voters still pine for an America better than its president.

Some days I just love Philadelphia so much.
posted by ActionPopulated at 5:21 PM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


If this does happen, we need to remember the lesson of the squandered 60 seat veto proof majority of 2009

if this does happen, the first piece of legislation passed better be the National Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism Establishment Act of 2019
posted by entropicamericana at 5:38 PM on January 17, 2018 [31 favorites]


Democrats will never do the right thing. Unless forced to.

A rank and file revolt of the party away from the entrenched money class squatting on top of it behaving like it’s 1982 forever would be a good move
posted by The Whelk at 5:41 PM on January 17, 2018 [30 favorites]


Sadly Trump really did go through with his Fake News Awards, though accompanied by the usual bumbling hiccups. Fox News picked up the slack & played their chosen role of Court Propagandist:

NYT's Paul Krugman Headlines Trump Fake News Awards.

So far it's just Paul & ABC's Brian Ross, though more are promised.
posted by scalefree at 5:45 PM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


A friend of mine apparently saw the fake news awards before the site went down.

The contents (as conveyed to me) follow:
2017 was a year of unrelenting bias, unfair news coverage, and even downright fake news. Studies have shown that over 90% of the media’s coverage of President Trump is negative.

Below are the winners of the 2017 Fake News Awards.

1. The New York Times’ Paul Krugman claimed on the day of President Trump’s historic, landslide victory that the economy would never recover.

2. ABC News' Brian Ross CHOKES and sends markets in a downward spiral with false report.

3. CNN FALSELY reported that candidate Donald Trump and his son Donald J. Trump, Jr. had access to hacked documents from WikiLeaks.

(via Fox News)

4. TIME FALSELY reported that President Trump removed a bust of Martin Luther King, Jr. from the Oval Office.

5. Washington Post FALSELY reported the President’s massive sold-out rally in Pensacola, Florida was empty. Dishonest reporter showed picture of empty arena HOURS before crowd started pouring in.
.@DaveWeigel @WashingtonPost put out a phony photo of an empty arena hours before I arrived @ the venue, w/ thousands of people outside, on their way in. Real photos now shown as I spoke. Packed house, many people unable to get in. Demand apology & retraction from FAKE NEWS WaPo! pic.twitter.com/XAblFGh1ob
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 9, 2017
6. CNN FALSELY edited a video to make it appear President Trump defiantly overfed fish during a visit with the Japanese prime minister. Japanese prime minister actually led the way with the feeding.

7. CNN FALSELY reported about Anthony Scaramucci’s meeting with a Russian, but retracted it due to a “significant breakdown in process.”

(via washingtonpost.com)

8. Newsweek FALSELY reported that Polish First Lady Agata Kornhauser-Duda did not shake President Trump’s hand.

9. CNN FALSELY reported that former FBI Director James Comey would dispute President Trump’s claim that he was told he is not under investigation.

10. The New York Times FALSELY claimed on the front page that the Trump administration had hidden a climate report.

(via WashingtonPost.com)

11. And last, but not least: "RUSSIA COLLUSION!" Russian collusion is perhaps the greatest hoax perpetrated on the American people. THERE IS NO COLLUSION!
posted by The Situationist Room with Guy Debord at 5:45 PM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


The executive branch attacking a free press like this (and in so many other ways) is really fucked up.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:49 PM on January 17, 2018 [93 favorites]


Like much of the time Stormy Daniels spent with Trump, that was certainly anti-climactic.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:51 PM on January 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


How on earth did I miss defiantlyoverfedfishgate?

But you have to admit, 90% negative press is a clear sign of bias. 10% bias, to be precise.
posted by uosuaq at 5:51 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


The site still doesn't work (you know what real news has? websites that function), but it looks like there's not just a poll, but there's apparently a list of petty grievances such as whether he shook the Polish First Lady's hand or overfed Japanese fish.

But it's time for some real news from Matt Fuller, Congress Is Getting Close To Shutting Down The Government. Democrats have been coming out strong to say they won't vote for a CR. It's posturing, sure, and maybe I'm Lucy to the Democrats holding the football, but unless a real deal happens very soon, people do tend to stay in their postures.

Which is to say, maybe Trump should be worried about whether he's the President of a country with an operating government in 51 hours rather than the fake news awards.

We're also putting his hate for Haiti into policy now: Trump admin. moves to bar Haitians from agricultural, seasonal worker visas
The Trump administration is moving to prohibit people from Haiti — which the president allegedly insulted in a meeting last week — from applying for visas for seasonal and farm workers.

The Department of Homeland Security has given notice it plans to prohibit people from Haiti, as well as Belize and Samoa, ineligible to apply for H-2A and H-2B visas, which are temporary.

Those visas allow businesses to bring in workers from other countries. The H-2A visa is for agriculture and the H-2B is for non-agricultural seasonal work in places such as resorts.
Wait. Trump employs Haitians on H-2B visas at Mar-a-Lago.
posted by zachlipton at 5:54 PM on January 17, 2018 [29 favorites]


This is like a Festivus that never ends - continual airing of grievances, and while there is a lot of talk about feats of strength, they never seem to get going so that somebody can pin Trump and end this.
posted by nubs at 5:56 PM on January 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


It's posturing, sure, and maybe I'm Lucy to the Democrats holding the football
In this metaphor, you are Charlie Brown, the Democrats are Lucy, Trump is Snoopy, seeing himself as Joe Cool and a World War I flying ace at the same time, and we are all of us going AUUUUUUUGGGGGHHHHHHH!
posted by dannyboybell at 6:04 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


The Trump administration is moving to prohibit people from Haiti — which the president allegedly insulted in a meeting last week — from applying for visas for seasonal and farm workers.

I was worried about something like this. If by some crazy dark horrible miracle all the undocumented immigrants, especially the farm workers were magically all deported at once, the effects on a lot of jobs and economies would be horrific. But if he just targets a few groups, he's pitting various groups of people against each other, because now it's easier for other immigrants to get these jobs.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 6:06 PM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


It took him ten extra days to come up with just eleven mistakes made by all media over a whole year? That’s not even one for each month! Jesus wept.
posted by Sys Rq at 6:06 PM on January 17, 2018 [30 favorites]


if this does happen, the first piece of legislation passed better be the National Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism Establishment Act of 2019

I'd settle for a new Voting Right Act and national universal registration, but yes, basically this. Pass something big and popular, and designed specifically to entrench Democratic gains in perpetuity, immediately, and over Republican objections on a party line vote, with no debate allowed from Republicans, exactly like they have. It doesn't have to be Luxury Gay Space Communism at first, but it can't be Whatever Joe Manchin Wants, either. I want a party that does stuff, and uses its temporary advantage to secure more gains in the future. Play the same game as Republicans have been for 40 years.

But enough dreaming, we have to get through Friday first.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:26 PM on January 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


Kornhauser-Duda

It's sock puppets all the way down
posted by petebest at 6:30 PM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Covering Donald J. Trump—What it's like to be called “fake news” (~½ hour video, Deutsche Welle's Close Up for Jan. 15th, in English; by DW White House correspondent Alexandra von Nahmen)
Dude at a rally in Alabama where Steve Bannon is speaking: I'm so disheartened with our news today, I don't even watch the news.
AvN: But then you cannot know whether they do report the truth, when you do not watch them.
Dude: I do... I do get some news from, uh, different sources, without having to listen to... I don't want to get too far into it... I do, I do have news sources, I just don't watch the news on television.
AvN: So what are your news sources? Can you tell us?
Dude: I'd rather not.
AvN: Oh! Why, Is it a secret?
Dude: No, it's no secret... I just, uh, I have my own beliefs on where I do get my news. And I'll tell you, I do like Fox News.
Our face to the world, ladies and gentlemen! It's like a poorly scripted NPC encounter in a game.

She speaks to Alex Pfeiffer, last year White House correspondent for The Daily Caller, now evidently working for Fox News, his millenial credentials established by a shot of him with a fidget spinner:
I don't take his "fake news media" attacks that seriously. Trump, you really have to understand, he lives... cable news is where he gets his information. He doesn't read books... he skims through the newspaper, but he consumes cable news incessantly. I mean, cable news hosts have told me that Trump will call them after shows.

So, he's an insecure guy. Model wife, but he's still unhappy. The "fake news" lashes... he's just angry at a show. People unfairly compare him to an autocrat, to say that he wants to ruin press freedoms. What other president is calling up news reporters on the phone?
The last line made me immediately think of this tidbit about Margarita Simonyan, RT's editor-in-chief:
...on her desk sits an old yellow telephone, a government landline, the sort with no dial pad, the sort usually seen in the offices of senior Russian officials. It is her secure connection, she admits, directly to the Kremlin.
posted by XMLicious at 6:41 PM on January 17, 2018 [40 favorites]


Erik Wemple giving serious side-eye: Staffers at The Hill press management about the work of John Solomon
For months, reporters at the publication have whispered sour somethings among themselves about the trail of Solomon investigations that have appeared under The Hill’s banner. It veers rightward.

As this blog has noted, a Solomon-Spann collaboration in October on the Uranium One deal lit up conservative media, with the aid of a plume of smoke and a warehouse full of mirrors. It appears to make the argument that the Justice Department quasi-covered up an important criminal case by . . . issuing a press release.

The pockmarks carried over into the new year. In a Jan. 8 piece, Solomon wrote, “Republican-led House and Senate committees are investigating whether leaders of the Russia counterintelligence investigation had contacts with the news media that resulted in improper leaks, prompted in part by text messages among senior FBI officials mentioning specific reporters, news organizations and articles.” At the center of the piece are then-FBI counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, the text-happy officials whose communications leaked last year. […]

Huffington Post’s Ryan J. Reilly and Nick Baumann grabbed Solomon’s piece, examined it and placed it neatly in the recycling bin.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:50 PM on January 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


2017 was a year of unrelenting bias, unfair news coverage, and even downright fake news. Studies have shown that over 90% of the media’s coverage of President Trump is negative.

Below are the winners of the 2017 Fake News Awards.


It's just great that the White House picks this particular moment in time to be dicking around like this on even vapider bullshit than usual rather than, you know, giving healthcare to sick babies or preventing DACA teens from being further traumatized or avoiding a govt. shutdown. As Jon Favreau said, "Very cool, very Presidential." Fantastic optics there, guys -- a PR firm's dream scenario, really.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:57 PM on January 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


I am legit side-eyeing the amount of engagement on this fake news bullshit. Seriously. A few media outlets looking at it aghast is reasonable. The president did a thing, it's a dumb thing, it'll get reported on. But I'm just... I don't even know how to describe my reaction to the sheer amount of people paying attention to this bullshit, but it's super negative. Even out of mockery, why would anyone give a fuck?

What the hell, America?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:13 PM on January 17, 2018 [18 favorites]




great that the White House picks this particular moment in time to be dicking around like this on even vapider bullshit than usual

Seems like a good place for your periodic reminder that nearly 40% of Puerto Rico is still without power and those with water still mostly have to boil it if they want to drink it. Millions of US citizens, utterly abandoned by their government. But by all means, Trump, please continue with your vapid crusade against people who are mean to you, and gee I sure hope we get to hear more about your hilarious hijinks with porn stars.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 7:16 PM on January 17, 2018 [86 favorites]


I am legit side-eyeing the amount of engagement on this fake news bullshit. Seriously. A few media outlets looking at it aghast is reasonable. The president did a thing, it's a dumb thing, it'll get reported on. But I'm just... I don't even know how to describe my reaction to the sheer amount of people paying attention to this bullshit, but it's super negative. Even out of mockery, why would anyone give a fuck?

The idea of the list was dumb and toxic but the execution is so breathtaking stupid it is terrifying. And I was already terrified. Now I am terrified squared.
posted by srboisvert at 7:29 PM on January 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


@TakeoutPodcast (Major Garrett, CBS's podcast): WH lawyer Ty Cobb tells the podcast he believes the Mueller investigation will wrap up in 4-6 weeks.

I've had contractors who operate on a similar basis when it comes to time estimates.
posted by zachlipton at 7:37 PM on January 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


Wasn't it supposed to wrap up by the end of the year 2017?
posted by Twain Device at 7:40 PM on January 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


The hand-wringing over Trump's cholesterol is a complete non-starter. An LDL level of 143 is unremarkable, and under 100 would be superb (though statins help).

For comparison, Clinton's LDL at the end of his adminstration was 177, and Obama was at 125. Note that the ratio of HDL to total cholesterol is a better predictor of health. Bill (who had heart surgery a few years after leaving office) was on the low normal side, at 46. While Barack, the American Adonis, was rocking a superb 68.

Without a HDL level to compare, the only thing we can say is that Trump has a fairly high LDL level for someone on the drug he is on, but that the level is not in a clinically worrisome range.
posted by Panjandrum at 7:44 PM on January 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


It's the Trumpian reversal in conservative mythology: Hillary Clinton is perpetually about to be indicted whereas Trump is perpetually about to be exonerated.
posted by XMLicious at 7:45 PM on January 17, 2018 [22 favorites]




Is there a way for you to link it so I can read it? protected tweet thing is blocking me.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 7:59 PM on January 17, 2018


As Flow of Foreign Students Wanes, U.S. Universities Feel the Sting (Stephanie Saul for New York Times, Jan. 2, 2018)
Just as many universities believed that the financial wreckage left by the 2008 recession was behind them, campuses across the country have been forced to make new rounds of cuts, this time brought on, in large part, by a loss of international students.

Schools in the Midwest have been particularly hard hit — many of them non-flagship public universities that had come to rely heavily on tuition from foreign students, who generally pay more than in-state students.

The downturn follows a decade of explosive growth in foreign student enrollment, which now tops 1 million at United States colleges and educational training programs, and supplies $39 billion in revenue. International enrollment began to flatten in 2016, partly because of changing conditions abroad and the increasing lure of schools in Canada, Australia and other English-speaking countries.
...
Now that the revenue stream appears to be diminishing, the financial outlook may be dire enough to weigh down the bond ratings of some schools, making it more expensive for them to borrow money, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Last month, Moody’s changed its credit outlook for higher education to “negative” from “stable.”
It's not going to impact the "coastal elite" schools that are well known -- it'll hit the smaller schools harder, further impacting the job markets in the Midwest.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:07 PM on January 17, 2018 [32 favorites]


“I get exercise. I mean I walk, I this, I that,” Trump told Reuters. “I run over to a building next door. I get more exercise than people think.” Trump said that he also gets exercise on the golf course, even though he usually uses a golf cart to traverse the course because walking the entire course takes up time. “I don’t want to spend the time,” he said.

Reuters, January 2068: "At 121 years young, president-for-life Trump shared the secrets of his health and longevity. 'Nothing can destroy my corporeal form,' he told Reuters, injecting concentrated botulinum toxin into his calcified brain in demonstration. 'I will know neither sleep nor death until everything good and beloved is gone and forgotten and yet then I will still stagger through the empty streets and blowing dust of this planet. Also I mean I walk, I this, I that.' "
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:11 PM on January 17, 2018 [78 favorites]


I run over to a building next door.

Does he mean the West Wing?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:14 PM on January 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Oh, how I hated in Phys Ed when we had to do 50 thises and 50 thats. Killed me every time.
posted by perhapses at 8:16 PM on January 17, 2018 [36 favorites]


Here's the Newspaper Guild letter in non-Twitter environs.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:16 PM on January 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


The downturn follows a decade of explosive growth in foreign student enrollment, which now tops 1 million at United States colleges and educational training programs, and supplies $39 billion in revenue. International enrollment began to flatten in 2016, partly because of changing conditions abroad and the increasing lure of schools in Canada, Australia and other English-speaking countries.

This is it in a nutshell. The US has always been extraordinarily hard to get into. A degree is no guarantee of being able to stay after studies. Even getting a masters or postdoc is no guarantee since you have to go through the H-1B visa system since the J-1 is long expired. It's like the US sets up every student we educated to fail and only through sheer sense of determination and willpower on behalf of the students do we get to keep them.

Australia, Canada, UK? They just spent years educating you. It's obvious that you have something to add to their country. Here's a good shot at getting Permanent Residency straight off the bat. No five year bullshit. No being stuck to a shitty employer who exploits you. You're immediately part of the community.

Who wouldn't rather go anywhere but the US? The only reason to even go to the US is graduate or postdoc work and even then you might be better off in Europe for some fields. It's like half the country likes to sabotage itself out of sheer spite.
posted by Talez at 8:18 PM on January 17, 2018 [60 favorites]


Not spite, racism.
posted by AFABulous at 8:24 PM on January 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


@TakeoutPodcast (Major Garrett, CBS's podcast): WH lawyer Ty Cobb tells the podcast he believes the Mueller investigation will wrap up in 4-6 weeks.

CNN: 3 More Months of the Mueller Investigation? Papadopoulos Filing Signals It's Likely
Robert Mueller's team of special prosecutors and the lawyers for George Papadopoulos delayed on Wednesday an upcoming check-in for the former Trump campaign staffer's case, an indication that the Mueller investigation will stay active until at least springtime and that Papadopoulos may continue to be useful to the prosecutors.

Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to investigators in October, agreed to cooperate with Mueller's team and awaits receiving his sentence. [...]

The lawyers in the case were scheduled to hold a phone call next Monday with the federal judge who will sentence Papadopoulos to discuss his status. But the two sides said in a court filing Wednesday they'd rather cancel it and discuss Papadopoulos' sentence three months from now. The deadline for the lawyers to update the court about Papadopoulos is April 23.[...]

In another sign that Mueller's investigation isn't close to wrapping up, Michael Flynn, the former National Security Adviser who also pleaded guilty in December to lying to investigators in the Mueller probe, doesn't have a date for his sentencing, either.
At this point, how much of Ty Cobb's job as legal counsel is devoted to reassuring his client everything will be over soon?

Furthermore, CBS's Steven Portnoy @stevenportnoy tantalizes additional sunshine from Cobb:
JUST IN: WH lawyer tells @CBSNews Trump is “very eager” to speak w/Muller in effort to bring Russia probe to an end.

“Active discussions” on an interview are underway, Ty Cobb tells @MajorCBS for @TakeoutPodcast.[...]

The parameters of such an exchange are still being discussed, but Cobb says Trump is “very eager” to speak with Mueller.
Wasn't this exactly where these negotiations stood a month ago?
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:27 PM on January 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


This is it in a nutshell. The US has always been extraordinarily hard to get into.

This was not the case in 1999, when we were rolling in folks on a B1 visa, for "meeting purposes" and rolling them out just as fast. From China and other places. Only managers could come on the L1 visas, for 2 years. But we sure had a lot of B1's in the late 1990's. That's a lot of meetings.
posted by Marie Mon Dieu at 8:35 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


3 More Months of the Mueller Investigation?

The Manafort trial got pushed to September, there's no chance the investigation wraps up before that's resolved, at the very earliest, assuming no more indictments at all, and somehow I doubt we've seen Mueller's end game strategy yet. If nothing else they've still got Kushner dead to rights on lying to the FBI and on his disclosures, and Don Jr. It's not close to over, and right now it looks like the most explosive part we know yet will be right in the middle of the midterm.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:55 PM on January 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Strange Interlude: "We've already had a test run of this at the Congressional level that ended with resignation, no idea if that ideological spear will pierce Trump's hide any more deeply than various other appeals to supposedly fiercely-held conservative principles did in 2016."

FWIW, Tim Murphy was on the verge of being referred to the Ethics Committee over some extremely abusive behavior going on in his office. The mistress abortion thing definitely was the proximate cause, but he was already in some serious trouble.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:04 PM on January 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


3 More Months of the Mueller Investigation? Papadopoulos Filing Signals It's Likely

As I understand it, what happens is, Trump will be meeting with Mueller in early February, and if Mueller doesn't find anything notable, the investigation may wrap up soon, but if Mueller happens to see Trump's shadow, that's a guaranteed three more months of investigation.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 9:21 PM on January 17, 2018 [72 favorites]


Why is it that racists who cry "chilling effects on free speech!" when they're rightfully called racists don't ever seem to have their speech chilled?
posted by tocts at 9:43 PM on January 17, 2018 [28 favorites]


Oral arguments today in front of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in the state gerrymandering case, here's a good write-up from Buzzfeed. Justices seemed sympathetic to plaintiffs, but maybe not willing to totally rule out any partisanship in mapping.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:45 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


From the POV of Congressional GOP leadership, the longer Mueller Muellers, the better. It’s the only credible Sword over the President’s head and the Damocles wielding it is plausibly someone else. I wouldn’t expect too much in the way of Congress helping the President smush it, Devin Nunes notwithstanding.
posted by notyou at 9:49 PM on January 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


WH lawyer Ty Cobb tells the podcast he believes the Mueller investigation will wrap up in 4-6 weeks.

I am imagining a groundhog with his mustache. And it is amazing.
posted by ryanrs at 12:27 AM on January 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


Australia, Canada, UK? They just spent years educating you. It's obvious that you have something to add to their country. Here's a good shot at getting Permanent Residency straight off the bat. No five year bullshit. No being stuck to a shitty employer who exploits you. You're immediately part of the community.

Minor derail detail, but you can take the UK off that list. Years of Tory rule whittling away at what they perceive as "backdoor immigration" - remember May was Home Secretary before she became PM - and now Brexit have made the UK a pretty hostile place for new foreign graduates.

Probably 60% of students in my master's degree programme were from outside the UK, and of those there are only a handful who have managed to stay more than two years... not for the lack of sometimes even desperately trying.
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 1:43 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Yeah, the UK has gotten pretty hostile to foreign students. I've been here ten years, largely by virtue of stretching out my second postgrad degree program waaaaaayyyy longer than it should have taken, and it's been rough. Student visa time doesn't count towards residency requirements, and they've more or less completely eliminated the post-study work visa that let students look for permanent or long-term employment after they graduated.

I've now switched over to a limited-term work visa, and I've finally fulfilled the requirements for permanent residency on the basis of being here for a decade, which is great. The £4600 or so I have to come up with by 2020 for the residency applications for Mrs. Example and me...not so great.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 3:12 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


One thing that's been mildly bugging me about the physical: the doctor's insistence that Trump wakes up every morning "reset," like he's being dressed by singing birds while the sun shines and everything is fine until the disaster du jour.

What person, in Trump's circumstances, would wake up ready to start the day with a smile on his or her face? The world, his own country, mocks him. The press is out to get him. The FBI is out to get him and his family. And today he's got to do whatever thing I'm sure he thinks is bullshit. Who would 'reset?'

I'm entrenched in a period of nostalgic Obama love, but even with him, I can't imagine him in these circumstances bounding out of bed with hope in his heart. I imagine him sneaking cigarettes and planning with Michelle how they were going to escape.
posted by angrycat at 4:50 AM on January 18, 2018 [28 favorites]


McClatchy: FBI investigating whether Russian money went to NRA to help Trump
The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency, two sources familiar with the matter have told McClatchy.

FBI counterintelligence investigators have focused on the activities of Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA, the sources said.

It is illegal to use foreign money to influence federal elections.

It’s unclear how long the Torshin inquiry has been ongoing, but the news comes as Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s sweeping investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election, including whether the Kremlin colluded with Trump’s campaign, has been heating up. [...]

Disclosure of the Torshin investigation signals a new dimension in the 18-month-old FBI probe of Russia’s interference. McClatchy reported a year ago that a multi-agency U.S. law enforcement and counterintelligence investigation into Russia’s intervention, begun even before the start of the 2016 general election campaign, initially included a focus on whether the Kremlin secretly helped fund efforts to boost Trump, but little has been said about that possibility in recent months.

The extent to which the FBI has evidence of money flowing from Torshin to the NRA, or of the NRA’s participation in the transfer of funds, could not be learned.

However, the NRA reported spending a record $55 million on the 2016 elections, including $30 million to support Trump – triple what the group devoted to backing Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race. Most of that was money was spent by an arm of the NRA that is not required to disclose its donors.

Two people with close connections to the powerful gun lobby said its total election spending actually approached or exceeded $70 million. The reporting gap could be explained by the fact that independent groups are not required to reveal how much they spend on Internet ads or field operations, including get-out-the-vote efforts.
posted by chris24 at 5:19 AM on January 18, 2018 [79 favorites]


McClatchy: FBI investigating whether Russian money went to NRA to help Trump

Hahah holy SHITBALLS. What are the odds that Reince Priebus, the RNC, and the rest of the Republican leadership — Ryan, McConnel, various congresspeople — aren’t tied up in this or implicated with Russian money? I would have better chances of winning the lottery right?

The Party of Treason.
posted by schadenfrau at 5:36 AM on January 18, 2018 [86 favorites]


chris24: the NRA reported spending a record $55 million on the 2016 elections, including $30 million to support Trump

That seems counterproductive, especially if you look at gun sales under Obama. But maybe they wanted to start selling more guns to the left?
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:37 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


chris24: McClatchy - FBI investigating whether Russian money went to NRA to help Trump

A reminder: Trump's buddy Sheriff Clarke was paid by a Russian national to go with an NRA delegation at exactly the same time as Gen. Flynn was paid to attend the infamous Russia Today event with Putin. It was ostensibly a gun advocacy trip, but he also tweeted about meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister.

This was December 2015, or six months after Trump announced his Presidential campaign.
posted by bluecore at 5:40 AM on January 18, 2018 [66 favorites]


WH lawyer tells @CBSNews Trump is “very eager” to speak w/Muller in effort to bring Russia probe to an end.

Pro tip for narcissistic billionaires: definitely, always be sure to indicate that you're trying to lead an investigation in a certain direction by abruptly switching course from resistance to eagerness. Or maybe you really are still resistant, and just want the investigators to think you're eager. By all means, run with this angle—they'll never see it coming. Either way, it's you setting the terms, not these pool boys playing badge-men. Just remember: nothing happens after the end of an investigation, so do what it takes to put it behind you pronto.

The more powerful the investigating agency, the more true this is!
posted by Rykey at 5:41 AM on January 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


That seems counterproductive, especially if you look at gun sales under Obama. But maybe they wanted to start selling more guns to the left?

There will always be another scary liberal president to drum up gun sales, but this election year was a crucial moment when it came to Supreme Court justices. And without a conservative majority ready to give the 2nd amendment an absurd reading, America will have a hard time remaining a gun filled paradise of mass shootings
posted by dis_integration at 5:49 AM on January 18, 2018 [26 favorites]


China is now viewed more positively in the world than the US. And we're just a few points above Russia.

Gallup: World's Approval of U.S. Leadership Drops to New Low
One year into Donald Trump's presidency, the image of U.S. leadership is weaker worldwide than it was under his two predecessors. Median approval of U.S. leadership across 134 countries and areas stands at a new low of 30%, according to a new Gallup report.

The most recent approval rating, based on Gallup World Poll surveys conducted between March and November last year, is down 18 percentage points from the 48% approval rating in the last year of President Barack Obama's administration, and is four points lower than the previous low of 34% in the last year of President George W. Bush's administration.

The recent drop in approval ratings is unrelated to the world's being less familiar with the new U.S. administration. The global median who do not have an opinion about U.S. leadership in 2017 (23%) is similar to the 25% in the last year of the Obama presidency.

Instead, disapproval of U.S. leadership increased almost as much as approval declined. The 43% median disapproval, up 15 points from the previous year, set a new record as well, not only for the U.S. but for any other major global power that Gallup has asked about in the past decade. [...]

The losses in U.S. leadership approval may have implications on U.S. influence abroad. With its stable approval rating of 41%, Germany has replaced the U.S. as the top-rated global power in the world. The U.S. is now on nearly even footing with China (31%) and barely more popular than Russia (27%) -- two countries that Trump sees as rivals seeking to "challenge American influence, values and wealth."

The present situation represents a marked change in the status quo since Obama's presidency, when the image of U.S. leadership remained relatively strong worldwide. In Obama's last year in office, for example, the U.S. led Germany by seven points, China by 17 points and Russia by 22 points.

The current rankings instead look more like a return to the status quo during the last year of the Bush administration -- with Germany on top, followed by China, the U.S. and then Russia -- except now, the U.S. has even more ground to make up.
posted by chris24 at 5:57 AM on January 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


So Germany ranks on top of everything. Didn't somebody once write a song about that?
posted by Faint of Butt at 6:05 AM on January 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


This may be the best five-word headline about 45 yet, and the most devastating application of a comma ever seen in peacestime.
posted by Devonian at 6:06 AM on January 18, 2018 [200 favorites]


WH lawyer tells @CBSNews Trump is “very eager” to speak w/Muller in effort to bring Russia probe to an end.

If I was Trump I would just plead the 5th to everything and tweet out that the 5th amendment protects the innocent and the guilty alike.

But I'm sure Trump thinks he's smarter than federal prosecutors.
posted by Talez at 6:06 AM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


This may be the best five-word headline about 45 yet, and the most devastating application of a comma ever seen in peacestime.

Man, that's very close to being in the realm of "For Sale: Baby shoes, never worn."
posted by Strange Interlude at 6:13 AM on January 18, 2018 [15 favorites]


Update on Syria and Turkey:

Damascus warns Turkey against Afrin attack: Syrian state TV (Reuters)
“We warn the Turkish leadership that if they initiate combat operations in the Afrin area, that will be considered an act of aggression by the Turkish army,” deputy foreign minister Faisal Meqdad said in a statement carried by the state media.

“The Syrian air defenses have restored their full force and they are ready to destroy Turkish aviation targets in Syrian Arab Republic skies”...

The presence of any Turkish forces on Syrian lands is “totally rejected”, Meqdad added. He said that military action by Ankara would complicate its role as a party to diplomatic efforts and put it on “the same level as the terrorist groups”.
Tillerson says U.S. has no intention to build border force in Syria (Reuters)
“That entire situation has been misportrayed, misdescribed. Some people misspoke. We are not creating a border security force at all,” [Tillerson] said aboard his aircraft taking him back to Washington from Canada...

“I think it’s unfortunate that comments made by some left that impression. That is not what we’re doing.”
posted by nangar at 6:17 AM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


The United Kingdom giving graduates the boots is, uhh, really dumb.
posted by Yowser at 6:25 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Jake Sherman: As we tiptoe toward a shutdown, a weird dynamic has started to become evident. Almost all Freedom Caucus members say they know a shutdown would strengthen Dems hands on immigration. Yet they continue to float non-starter proposal. they think the senate should blow up filibuster
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:30 AM on January 18, 2018


they think the senate should blow up filibuster

ha ha ha is that so the Dems can more comfortably pass everything they want once we retake the Senate in 2018? LIBERAL UTOPIA HERE WE COME
posted by lydhre at 6:34 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Nothing weird about it. Authoritarians who think that theirs is the only valid worldview support complete nullification of the opposition's ability to impede implementation of that worldview.
posted by delfin at 6:36 AM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


>This may be the best five-word headline about 45 yet, and the most devastating application of a comma ever seen in peacestime.

And in the Chambana News-Gazette, of all places! They are not exactly known for being progressive. I'm pretty sure it was unintentional, but imagining that it was deliberate has made my day!

[Urbana itself is progressive, but the rest of east-central Illinois is less so, and there's a lot of tension between UIUC and the town. The News-Gazette tends to reflect the, uh, broader milieu.]
posted by Westringia F. at 6:36 AM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


the increasing lure of schools in Canada, Australia and other English-speaking countries

University of Toronto has just dropped foreign tuition fees for graduate students. Canada is coming hard for your international talent.
posted by srboisvert at 6:40 AM on January 18, 2018 [66 favorites]


I should have added this:

Turkish chief of staff, intelligence chief head to Russia for Syria talks (Daily Sabah)
posted by nangar at 6:41 AM on January 18, 2018


if I made this many mistakes in one week, I'd be fired. Trump undermines GOP power move (while it's in progress) again.
posted by rc3spencer at 6:47 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Newspaper Guild of Pittsburgh: John Robinson Block, the @PittsburghPG publisher who was behind the reprehensible editorial "Reason [as] Racism," will not allow this letter to the editor to appear in the newspaper. We offer it here.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:52 PM on January 17 [21 favorites +] [!]


Whoa! That editorial could have been written by David Duke. The hard evidence that Trump supporters are casual racists with no self awareness keeps piling up and they seem to be a vein of rot running through all levels of society. The mental twisting and bending that they go through to justify their beliefs is stunning both in its extent and in the willful blindness it entails.
posted by Mental Wimp at 6:54 AM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


Bruce Rauner, governor of Illinois, was asked on MLK day if he thought David Duke was a racist, and refused to answer the question, in yet another own-goal. Somebody told him to always stick to his talking points, so he goes in and talks about taxes and the evils of unions and whatnot, and this is like the fourth time he's own-goaled in this fashion by refusing to answer a super-straightforward question. On Tuesday he finally said that, yep, David Duke was a racist, and now the story is all about how Rauner had to think about it for 24 hours before deciding the KKK was racist.

He's following the incredibly stupid Paul Ryan playbook where if you just refuse to talk about Trump or white supremacists or any of the other ugly bits in the GOP, and pivot to taxes over and over again, you won't end up "tied to Trump" but you won't have to alienate his base by disavowing him.

Instead his opponents are racking up some pretty great campaign ad fodder and now David Duke has a picture of Rauner giving a thumbs up with "David Duke is not a racist!" superimposed over it on his website.

(Even in the absence of Trump, I feel like Bruce Rauner, who legit went to Dartmouth and isn't stupid, is providing a super-great demonstration of how rich people (even if they made their own money!) are not, therefore, particularly smart or competent. It's honestly astonishing, even by the low standards of businessmen-entering-politics-on-a-whim, how incompetent he and his whole administration are.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:07 AM on January 18, 2018 [51 favorites]


The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency, two sources familiar with the matter have told McClatchy.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the Mueller investigation takes down the Trump organization, the GOP, and the NRA? A fella can dream...
posted by Mental Wimp at 7:24 AM on January 18, 2018 [54 favorites]


> "The United Kingdom giving graduates the boots is, uhh, really dumb."

Yes.

The current UK government's unceasing determination to shoot the country in the foot because that foot might contain immigrants is a source of anger and frustration for many of the sane people who live here.
posted by kyrademon at 7:24 AM on January 18, 2018 [42 favorites]


I’m watching all of this go on with the Mueller investigation, and as much as I want to see Trump get indicted, I actually feel like Pence is the bigger prize here. Takes away a backstop for them and makes it a lot harder for them to say “well, Trump’s gone, problem solved.” It’s hard to convince me that Ryan, Nunes, McConnell and a lot of others aren’t dirty as well and I’d like to see them have to squirm under questioning.
posted by azpenguin at 7:33 AM on January 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


On the CR + DACA fight, I feel like with good messaging (if this even gets to the Senate) Democrats can defend their vote against cloture. Republicans refuse to consider or make lucid arguments against including DACA? Then there's a debate still to be had, and that's what cloture votes are supposed to be for. It's not historically been the parliamentary trickery of denying passage of a vote without a supermajority, but denying the progression to a vote at all because a piece of legislation has not been adequately discussed. It'd be refreshing to have the Democrats remind us all what the underlying purpose of parliamentary procedure is and use it the way it's supposed to be used, not to kill a bill but to force relevant issues to the table.

If it doesn't get to the Senate, of course, then I don't see how a shutdown can be blamed on the Democrats at all. Republicans have complete control of the House and if they can't push their legislation through there then they have nobody to blame but themselves.
posted by jackbishop at 7:44 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


and as much as I want to see Trump get indicted, I actually feel like Pence is the bigger prize here

It's far past time for everyone to come to terms with the fact that no matter what happens to Trump, we're going to have a GOP president until 2020. There is no constitutional remedy for this that is very likely. The only plausible scenario would be: Dems retake a house majority, elect a new Speaker, then impeach *both* Trump *and* Pence, making their Speaker President. And that scenario is basically science fiction. Indicting Trump & Co is about justice and the rule of law, not about political power, and anyway basically guarantees victories in 2018 and 2020 for the other side. But we're stuck in this GOP hellscape until then.
posted by dis_integration at 7:51 AM on January 18, 2018 [19 favorites]


dis_integration: To be crystal clear, by "other side" you mean Democrats, right?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:54 AM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


In another round of Local Elections Matter: Resolution aims to limit reach of ICE By Maddy Hayden for the Albuquerque Journal, January 17th, 2018
A newly introduced resolution aims to prohibit Albuquerque from allowing federal immigration agents inside nonpublic city property, including the Prisoner Transport Center.

City Councilors Pat Davis and Klarissa Peña introduced a resolution Wednesday that would ban U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement from entering the properties without a warrant.

Under the previous mayoral administration, ICE agents had been afforded office space inside the Prisoner Transport Center and were allowed to check the immigration status of everyone arrested and detained by the Albuquerque Police Department at the center before they were transferred to the jail.

Another subsection of the resolution states that no city resources, including “moneys, equipment, personnel, or City facilities,” may be used to assist ICE agents. It clarifies a 2000 resolution prohibiting the use of city resources. That resolution, which is currently in place, did not include a definition of what it referred to as “municipal resources.”
...
The resolution also prohibits city agencies and employees from inquiring about or disclosing residents’ immigration status “except as required by law.”
...
Nancy Montaño, a policy analyst for Peña’s office, said the resolution will likely be voted on in March.
Albuquerque had a fairly liberal Republican Mayor, but now it has a decent Democrat in office, and the City Council swung majority Dem in the election, 5-4.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:55 AM on January 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


dis_integration: To be crystal clear, by "other side" you mean Democrats, right?

yes. i mean: if you impeach the pres from party X, it means victories for party Y.

posted by dis_integration at 7:59 AM on January 18, 2018


It’s hard to convince me that Ryan, Nunes, McConnell and a lot of others aren’t dirty as well and I’d like to see them have to squirm under questioning.

It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP has been actively courting Russian oligarch money to funnel through PACs for years now, and that totally independently of that the Trump camp did a hamfisted, idiotic quid pro quo campaign with Russians that now threatens to shine a light on everybody's Russian dalliances. It would explain a lot.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:02 AM on January 18, 2018 [63 favorites]


Tillerson Prints Out Trump’s Tweets to Help Set Foreign Policy

Meanwhile, among the actual foreign policy experts, McClatchy reports, morale disintegrates at State Department as diplomats wonder who will quit next to escape Trump: "State has been shedding diplomats rapidly; 60 percent of the State Departments’ top-ranking career diplomats have left and new applications to join the foreign service have fallen by half, according to recent data from the American Foreign Service Association, the professional organization of the U.S. diplomatic corps."

The department is shedding foreign service expertise while Tillerson is trying to read the tea leaves of Trump's tweets. The video of him relating this as an amusing anecdote to illustrate his management style is like "Yes, Minister" with all the humor drained away.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:04 AM on January 18, 2018 [31 favorites]


Mike Rounds [R-SD] says he'll vote against the Ryan/McConnell CR. They don't have the votes at this point.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:09 AM on January 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


Tillerson Prints Out Trump’s Tweets to Help Set Foreign Policy

The legislative version of this process for THIS DOOSIE is going to be . . . interesting.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:21 AM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP has been actively courting Russian oligarch money to funnel through PACs for years now, and that totally independently of that the Trump camp did a hamfisted, idiotic quid pro quo campaign with Russians that now threatens to shine a light on everybody's Russian dalliances. It would explain a lot.

It also explains why every time Muller makes headway, he ends up with another dozen investigations to pursue. For now, I'm just going to assume that everyone is dirty. But yeah, looks like Trump's opportunistic Russian conspiracy is going to blow the lid off the GOP's organized Russian conspiracy.

Tomorrow's "Grand Jury Friday", right?
posted by mikelieman at 8:24 AM on January 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP has been actively courting Russian oligarch money to funnel through PACs for years now, and that totally independently of that the Trump camp did a hamfisted, idiotic quid pro quo campaign with Russians that now threatens to shine a light on everybody's Russian dalliances. It would explain a lot.

That is...a very interesting theory and doesn't feel that farfetched. I admit I have been really puzzling over what it could be that would be so, so devastating to reveal that demands such an impassioned coverup. It's hard to imagine anything with the potential to blow things wide open, but this would be pretty shocking and would also help explain why the GOP has so readily fallen in line.
posted by Miko at 8:27 AM on January 18, 2018 [31 favorites]


It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP has been actively courting Russian oligarch money to funnel through PACs for years...

The Dallas Morning News, hardly a liberal paper, has been doing good work on this.

August: GOP campaigns took $7.35 million from oligarch linked to Russia

December: How Putin's proxies helped funnel millions into GOP campaigns
posted by chris24 at 8:31 AM on January 18, 2018 [75 favorites]


Whether or not they've taken dirty or foreign money themselves, I think the GOP just really wants to take advantage of having full control over the government. They also got a perfect bump and set from McConnell in the last few years re judicial appointments and damn if they're going to waste the opportunity to spike now.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:33 AM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


Tony Schwartz, Guardian Op-Ed: I wrote The Art of the Deal with Trump. He's still a scared child
Trump is angrier and more self-absorbed than when I first knew him. We must not let his culture of fear stop us speaking out
...
Trump’s temperament and his habits have hardened with age. He was always cartoonish, but compared with the man for whom I wrote The Art of the Deal 30 years ago, he is significantly angrier today: more reactive, deceitful, distracted, vindictive, impulsive and, above all, self-absorbed – assuming the last is possible.
...
Fear is the hidden through-line in Trump’s life – fear of weakness, of inadequacy, of failure, of criticism and of insignificance. He has spent his life trying to outrun these fears by “winning” – as he puts it – and by redefining reality whenever the facts don’t serve the narrative he seeks to create. It hasn’t worked, but not for lack of effort.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:33 AM on January 18, 2018 [48 favorites]


Sam Bee interviews the working class.

Sadly, it takes a comedy show to actually do the media's job.
posted by Talez at 8:43 AM on January 18, 2018 [32 favorites]


Now see, what we've always been told about the GOP is that they're flush with cash from racist old white billionaires like the Kochs. Has Russia actually been propping them up for a while? Are they in hock up to their eyeballs to these guys?

That would definitely put a new twist on things. I had been thinking in terms of bribing Congressman A here, Congressman B there, and of course Trump's issues, but does the GOP as a whole have a big ol' Russian money problem?
posted by emjaybee at 8:47 AM on January 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


Trump tweeted earlier he was going to the PA special to campaign for the Republican. That’s a political trip, and it’s illegal for the government to pay for it. S. Sanders is now trying to clean up, claiming “The purpose of today's visit is to promote the President's successful agenda especially on taxes”. The Trump campaign or RNC owes us every dollar to fly him to PA today.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:49 AM on January 18, 2018 [64 favorites]


T.D.—cite, for the non-Twitterers?
posted by Rykey at 8:56 AM on January 18, 2018


T.D.—cite, for the non-Twitterers?

@realDonaldTrump
"Will be going to Pennsylvania today in order to give my total support to RICK SACCONE, running for Congress in a Special Election (March 13). Rick is a great guy. We need more Republicans to continue our already successful agenda!"
posted by bluecore at 9:03 AM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


Oh my god. Legal mastermind Ty Cobb worries that if Mueller did interview Mr. Trump, it could be a perjury trap — that is, a situation in which his story does not match the evidence — something Cobb said "foolish" was not to consider. He is also quoted, talking about how Mueller's investigation will blow over in a few weeks, with the insightful analogy, "there's a big difference between a shooting star and a planet." Sir, planets are harmless, and a big enough shooting star could be the end of your client and all the other dinosaurs.
posted by mubba at 9:06 AM on January 18, 2018 [42 favorites]


A perjury trap, otherwise known as perjury?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:07 AM on January 18, 2018 [101 favorites]


planets are harmless, and a big enough shooting star could be the end of your client and all the other dinosaurs

Trump is Melancholia and we're all out in the horse barn.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:11 AM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


A perjury trap, like where everyone knows that So-and-so is full of shit and Mueller can prove it, but So-and-so feels obligated to stick to his bullshit story? I think they call that “hoist by your own petard”.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:12 AM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]




Daniel Dale summed up the morning:
Trump tweets this morning:
- I’m going to PA to campaign for a Republican (White House: No he’s going to talk taxes)
- I don’t like this CHIP business (Paul Ryan: No he actually does)
- The Wall has always been the same (John Kelly: No)
- Mexico will pay for The Wall (Mexico: No)
We don't really have a President so much as a guy who randomly causes chaos in whatever topic is mentioned on cable news as everyone around him attempts to manipulate him into doing what they wanted all along.
posted by zachlipton at 9:18 AM on January 18, 2018 [99 favorites]


Speaking of things that need rewritten, WaPo wrote about Bannon's delay tactics:
The House Intelligence Committee has postponed a planned Thursday afternoon interview with Stephen K. Bannon, a former White House adviser and architect of President Trump’s campaign, after his lawyer protested the panel had not given them enough time to coordinate with the administration about what he could discuss.

I believe the word they could not come upon was: conspire.
posted by Dashy at 9:26 AM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


Definitely not collude. No way, uh uh.
posted by ogooglebar at 9:30 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Profiles In Courage: Activists say Tom Cotton has issued do-not-call-or-write notice to some constituents
posted by Chrysostom at 9:45 AM on January 18, 2018 [38 favorites]


Cotton must've gotten tired of getting customized versions of that "I feel that you should know that some asshole has been signing your name to stupid letters" message.
posted by delfin at 9:50 AM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


A perjury trap, otherwise known as perjury?

A perjury trap is when you already know the answer to questions you're asking, so you're asking them just because you expect the person to lie.
posted by dis_integration at 9:51 AM on January 18, 2018 [15 favorites]


In the CBS article about Ty Cobb there is this interesting detail:
Bannon has made a deal to talk with the special counsel's office, after FBI agents visited Bannon's house to serve him with a grand jury subpoena. The deal means that he will not have to appear before the grand jury.

Combining Trump's stated interest in meeting with the Mueller team and the Tony Schwarz op-ed linked above, I get the notion that Trump really does want to meet with Mueller ASAP. I think he is stupid enough to think he really is a master salesman and negotiator, and liar, and that he can persuade Mueller nothing is there. Schwarz also mentions that he thinks he is the only one who can do stuff, implying that his staff and lawyers are not good enough at defending him.
posted by mumimor at 9:51 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


What affect does Cotton think that will actually have? I'm not one of his constituents but that news certainly makes me want to pick up the phone and give his office a call. I'd LOVE to get a call from the Capitol Police about it and I can be pretty certain that if they caused me any trouble at all, I could at least get advice, if not outright representation, from the ACLU.
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
posted by VTX at 9:52 AM on January 18, 2018 [35 favorites]


Oh god, by all means let him.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:53 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


A perjury trap is when you already know the answer to questions you're asking, so you're asking them just because you expect the person to lie.

Probably, I would guess, because true answers would be incredibly incriminating.

Remember what Josh Marshall was saying since this whole scandal surfaced: Innocent or not, Trump and his people are sure acting like they have something nasty to hide. Now Trump's own lawyer has all but admitted as much.
posted by Gelatin at 9:54 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


isn't it a huge red flag for a lawyer to say publicly: "I cannot let you question my client because they will definitely perjure themselves."

Indeed.. Our legal system really needs an "okay, fine, we just skip to the endgame now" option when things like this happen.

Defense: Our client can't testify because they will commit purjury.
Prosecution: Fine, they're guilty then?
Defense: Yes, fine.
Judge: So ordered. I pronounce the defendant guilty on all counts.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:56 AM on January 18, 2018 [32 favorites]


Trump tweets this morning:
- I’m going to PA to campaign for a Republican (White House: No he’s going to talk taxes)
- I don’t like this CHIP business (Paul Ryan: No he actually does)
- The Wall has always been the same (John Kelly: No)
- Mexico will pay for The Wall (Mexico: No)


The longer this stuff goes on, the more convinced I find the theory that Trump and/or the Russians have something on so many people in the RNC and Congress. Somebody linked a while back to Trump's threat to "take the Republican Party down with him" if they didn't back him as the nominee, and I think it's all rooted in the same thing.
posted by Rykey at 10:00 AM on January 18, 2018 [23 favorites]


I bet $20 that the Republicans are knee-deep in Russian money and that their RT-proxies like Fox News have been conducting Russian-influenced psychological warfare on the populace for decades. Why doesn’t anyone think it is wholly bizarre that a news station has been so entrenched with Republican politics for so long, and has consistently pushed the viewpoints of a foreign authoritarian government, at this point directly to the Republican President directly?
posted by gucci mane at 10:02 AM on January 18, 2018 [36 favorites]


The Senate voted to reauthorize FISA 702 on a 65-34 vote, because some days we're absolutely nowhere.
posted by zachlipton at 10:04 AM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]




Mod note: Some stuff nixed; kind of a lot of idle chat and "I bet he'd say this" stuff this morning, please claw that back some.
posted by cortex (staff) at 10:09 AM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Meanwhile, the House Intelligence panel voted to release transcript from Fusion GPS Co-Founder Glenn Simpson's interview (CNN): "It's not clear how quickly the committee will release the transcript of the Simpson interview. The panel has previously released two interview transcripts as part of an agreement with the witnesses, and they were both published within three business days of the interview." Watch this space?
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:10 AM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Going by some superficial research, it seems "perjury traps" can be an actual legal no-no, if the questions asked have nothing to do with the investigation. For example, if Bob asked Donald about Stormy Daniels (assuming the affair has nothing to do with Russia, and knowing Donald would almost definitely lie about it), that could be a trap. Of course there's no reason to expect such a thing (as fun as it would be to watch the squirming).

So Mr. Long-Dead Center Fielder's claim about perjury traps is consistent with a frequent Trump talking point these days: that Mueller is going to go rogue, into off-topic territory. This (now very very questionable) assertion isn't about the sexual misdeeds (that's what the state-level civil suits are for!), but rather that Trump's business dealings are "obviously" unrelated to an investigation into foreign election influence, obstruction of justice, etc. (I'm reasonably confident that the Mueller team is keeping ironclad records of how one of those things naturally leads investigators to the other one.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:13 AM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


These shithole countries are not sending their best

You've surely got to go some to be persona non grata in Hungary these days, right?
posted by Myeral at 10:15 AM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


A President of the United States? Asked questions, under oath, about prurient sexual misconduct with the intent of getting him to perjure himself? The hell you say.
posted by delfin at 10:16 AM on January 18, 2018 [141 favorites]


The White House has maintained that the delay is “completely normal,” and that there is extra scrutiny for advisers like Kushner who need the highest level of clearance. A White House official said that the process can take around 300 days: it's now been 362.

A position that's so sensitive, it can only be filled by someone without a permanent security clearance? Something, something, Emperor's New Clothes.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:23 AM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


WTF Tom Cotton? So does that mean non-constituents can call & write all they want? Where does he think he gets the right to tell people he represents to not contact him? What a colossal ASSHOLE. I hope the ACLU gets all up in his face about it, as VTX suggests.
posted by yoga at 10:23 AM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Foreign Policy, Trump Ordered Bannon to Limit Testimony
President Donald Trump personally made the decision to curtail the testimony of former chief White House political strategist Steve Bannon before the House Intelligence Committee, according to two people with firsthand knowledge of the matter.

Trump acted to limit Bannon’s testimony based on legal advice provided by Uttam Dhillon, a deputy White House counsel, who concluded that the administration might have legitimate executive privilege claims to restrict testimony by Bannon and other current and former aides to the president, according to these same sources.

But Dhillon has also concluded that Bannon and other current and former Trump administration officials do not have legitimate claims to executive privilege when it comes to providing information or testimony to special counsel Robert Mueller, according to the sources. Mueller is investigating whether anyone associated with Trump colluded with Russia to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Dhillon’s private and previously unreported legal advice to Trump could ultimately go against the president’s interest, however, by making it increasingly difficult for any administration official — or even a member of the president’s family who advises Trump — to refuse to provide information to Mueller.
I'll put this over here, with the rest of the obstruction.
posted by zachlipton at 10:33 AM on January 18, 2018 [54 favorites]


Going by some superficial research, it seems "perjury traps" can be an actual legal no-no, if the questions asked have nothing to do with the investigation. For example, if Bob asked Donald about Stormy Daniels (assuming the affair has nothing to do with Russia, and knowing Donald would almost definitely lie about it), that could be a trap.

Or if the Whitewater investigators asked about Bill Clinton's relationship with Monica Lewinsky.
posted by Gelatin at 10:35 AM on January 18, 2018 [28 favorites]


Profiles In Courage: Activists say Tom Cotton has issued do-not-call-or-write notice to some constituents

Well, I live in Little Rock and it looks like I just got me a new life goal.
posted by middleclasstool at 10:39 AM on January 18, 2018 [141 favorites]


Graham's "I want to make sure that I can keep talking to the president" statement approaches the "so dishonest it's honest" category. Like I need someone to analyze his blinking for the HELP ME morse code. It's flabbergasting.

Yet he's not the only one who does it! It belongs on that "I'll stop calling Trump a toddler when..." Twitter thread.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:51 AM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


> I told him what I thought, and that's more important to me than anything else.

To thine own self be true politically expedient according to the conditions that you are currently presented with.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:52 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Indeed.. Our legal system really needs an "okay, fine, we just skip to the endgame now" option when things like this happen.

That would basically mean there's no such thing as the 5th amendment. The whole point is that you can't infer guilt from invoking it. The burden is on the state to prove its case not imply through innuendo. The defendant is under no obligation to hang themselves.
posted by Talez at 10:53 AM on January 18, 2018 [27 favorites]


Indeed.. Our legal system really needs an "okay, fine, we just skip to the endgame now" option when things like this happen.

Defense: Our client can't testify because they will commit purjury.
Prosecution: Fine, they're guilty then?
Defense: Yes, fine.
Judge: So ordered. I pronounce the defendant guilty on all counts.


This has a name: Pleading Guilty
posted by ArgentCorvid at 11:15 AM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


That would basically mean there's no such thing as the 5th amendment. The whole point is that you can't infer guilt from invoking it

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but surely you don't invoke it by saying "I'm remaining silent because anything I say would prove my guilt."
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:30 AM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


Graham values his access to the executive branch greater than he does his obligation to speak truth to his constituents.

As quoted above: Power Over Honor.
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 11:30 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Chuck Schumer on Twitter: There is a STILL bipartisan deal from Sens Durbin & Graham to protect Dreamers AND fund @POTUS’s full request for the WALL. @realDonaldTrump, it's time to take yes for an answer.

WHAT THE HELL, CHUCK. Why would you or any Democrat even humor him on that bullshit racist garbage wall? Why would you even dignify it? What the hell are you doing?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:40 AM on January 18, 2018 [79 favorites]


Yeah, yeah, yeah, but surely you don't invoke it by saying "I'm remaining silent because anything I say would prove my guilt."

It's the right not to self-incriminate. So "I invoke the right not to incriminate myself" seems a perfectly cromulent way to refuse to answer a question.

It's still weird to hear the President's own lawyer as much as admitting that he doesn't think he can stop the President from perjuring himself if he talks to Mueller, even if it's an attempt to cast Mueller as fishing for perjury.
posted by BungaDunga at 11:43 AM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


If the government shuts down, Trump and the GOP will fully own it (Greg Sargent / WaPo)
If Democrats vote in insufficient numbers for the short-term funding bill, and the government shuts down, the culprit will be easy to identify. It will lie in the bottomless bad faith coming from President Trump, his hard-line anti-immigration advisers and some Republicans — and with Trump’s openly advertised racism and white nationalism.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:48 AM on January 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


Why would you or any Democrat even humor him on that bullshit racist garbage wall?

The great thing about toddlers is their short attention span and forgetfulness.

Trump bases all his decisions on whatever he heard last - it's not as though he could hold them accountable for lying.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 11:51 AM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


Jamelle Bouie, Slate: Donald Trump’s Enduring PromiseReopening the wounds of racial grievance will be Donald Trump’s most lasting achievement.
The idea of the United States as a multiracial endeavor, where its citizens and residents possess equal status and dignity, is not settled. In a slave-holding country whose founding hardened racial hierarchy, the equal citizenship of blacks and other nonwhites is still contested terrain on which political battles are fought. And still looming large in our collective political identity is the belief that America is a white democracy, a “white man’s government,” where those deemed white hold a racial monopoly on status, resources, and opportunity.

In describing the formation of “whiteness” as a social position, historian David Roediger coined the term “herrenvolk republicanism” to describe the ideology constructed by white Americans in the wake of the Civil War and the aftermath of Reconstruction. Herrenvolk, which translates to “master race,” denotes the importance of racial hierarchy to the project at hand. Republicanism has less to do with the political party that shares the name, and more with a deep-rooted American ideology that elevates the independent producer—the farmer or the merchant—over those spurned as dependent, or worse, parasitic. It celebrated the middle of American society, and the preservation of that middle as integral to the maintenance of democracy. [...]

Trump fans those flames of racial anger. And to the extent that it has been successful, it’s in part because white racial entitlement is embedded in the nation’s practices and habits of mind, manifested in the persistence of school segregation and the reality of housing and workplace discrimination. Massive effort has ameliorated this in the past, and fewer Americans than ever hold on to these ideas. But they’re still present in our society, still potent, still capable of great damage. [...]

Resisters must challenge the herrenvolk-ism still present in American life by modeling and performing inclusion across all dimensions. This resistance goes beyond electoral politics and the immediate goal of removing Trump, or at least stopping his progress. Americans who have witnessed this first year of the Trump administration and responded with horror must understand that the challenge of defeating Trumpism is more fundamental than just one man and his party. It’s not restoration of a status quo ante but genuine progress.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:55 AM on January 18, 2018 [42 favorites]


If the government shuts down, Trump and the GOP will fully own it (Greg Sargent / WaPo)

Democrats are considering a federal shutdown, but it’s risky

!@#*(%$YH!@OIFHSDAKOLFHSALK BOSTON GLOBE
posted by Talez at 11:58 AM on January 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


The Durbin/Graham deal isn’t perfect (it sets Dreamers’ parents to be held hostage by the right again in a few years, for one thing, though that’s an improvement over their status now) but it’s not bad. And it’s a total non-starter with GOP leadership because the far right hates it and Trump swore at it, so he’s baiting with something that’s not happening. There’s some more money for border security, which Trump can spin as wall money and Dems can spin as security + we just saved DACA.

Schumer is posturing for the “who to blame for the shutdown” game and is conditioning Democratic votes to keep the government open on a deal for Dreamers.
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on January 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


Democrats are considering a federal shutdown, but it’s risky

I'm assuming the risk is dependent on how soft the media is about it, and which party is more effective with their messaging.

I don't think Sargent's assertion is a foregone conclusion.
posted by rhizome at 12:03 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Something not being talked about is that a compromise bill would pass. Easily. But if Ryan allowed it to come up for a vote, the freedom caucus might start some shenanigans and end his time as Speaker. Thus Ryan needs to blame Trump but Trump avoids responsibility like the plague. So here we are.
posted by Glibpaxman at 12:04 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Confirming what sounds reasonable: Immigrant-friendly policies make most whites feel welcomed, too -- Only Caucasian conservatives feel uncomfortable in a state that welcomes immigrants. (John Timmer for Ars Technica, Jan. 17, 2018)
Immigration policy in the US has grown increasingly contentious, seemingly pitting different communities and ideologies against each other. But a new study suggests that a large majority of Americans appreciate a welcoming policy toward immigrants. Only a specific minority—white conservatives—generally feels otherwise. And the effect isn't limited to policy, as it influenced whether citizens felt welcome in the place that they lived.

The research, performed by a collaboration of US-based researchers, focused on New Mexico and Arizona. These states have similar demographics but radically different policies toward immigrants. Arizona has state policies that encourage police to check the immigration status of people they encounter; controversial Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio ended up in trouble with the court system in part due to how aggressively he pursued this program. New Mexico, by contrast, will provide state IDs and tuition benefits to immigrants regardless of their documentation status.
(Woot woot, New Mexico!)
It's not much of a surprise to see confirmation that policies that are hostile to a group make members of that group feel less welcome in their communities. In this case, the non-immigrant Hispanics surveyed shared a geographic origin and likely some culture with the people targeted, so it's not much of a surprise that they felt less welcome as well. It would be useful to perform a similar experiment in New York City or Northern California, where there are more diverse groups of immigrants, to see if these feelings crossed cultural boundaries.

But there was at least one case in this study where the feelings clearly did cross cultural boundaries: liberal Caucasians felt more at home in their communities if they felt the communities welcomed immigrants.

White conservatives, however, were unique in this study in that they were the only group who felt that an immigrant-friendly community was hostile to them. While that might not be a problem in the more homogeneous areas of the country, this group is a shrinking minority—which may both explain the response and suggest that it will become an increasing issue going forward. Finding a way to moderate this sense of hostility may thus be essential to keeping US society functional in the face of demographic change.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:11 PM on January 18, 2018 [43 favorites]


since doing so could be deemed a stipulation that the President is not immune from criminal prosecution

My understanding is that presidents can plead the Fifth because they're not immune after their term ends. Nixon needed pardoning because of that.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:11 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


How deep into the line of succession do you have to go before you hit somebody who won't pardon Trump the instant they hit the Oval Office?
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:24 PM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


You can look up FARA filings online. Looks like John Ashcroft's legal team is representing Quatar. I'm sure it will be interesting to peruse these for old familiar names.
posted by Rufous-headed Towhee heehee at 12:25 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Only a specific minority—white conservatives—generally feels otherwise. And the effect isn't limited to policy, as it influenced whether citizens felt welcome in the place that they lived.

It's a point that gets lost in the rhetoric about fruit pickers and chicken pluckers, but if you're a top engineer from India or a Heart Surgeon from Germany - why would you come to America?

It only takes one paperwork mistake for the ICE to show up, shoot your dog, imprison your wife and ship your kids back - assuming that sort of "Chain Migration" is even allowed in the next few months/years. If you're a professional, working with or in America looks less and less appealing every day.

The Republicans are absolutely playing calvinball with the people lives and livelihoods, and it doesn't just affect Mexican migrant farm workers. This is a going to have massive repercussions throughout all industries.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 12:26 PM on January 18, 2018 [70 favorites]


> "Yeah, yeah, yeah, but surely you don't invoke it by saying 'I'm remaining silent because anything I say would prove my guilt.'"
> "You could, though you'd probably not want to phrase it that way."

No, it's not just "you could, but you probably don't want to." This is literally exactly what the fifth amendment is for and how people invoke it, e.g. "I invoke my right under the Fifth Amendment not to answer, on the grounds I may incriminate myself." That's the WHOLE POINT.
posted by kyrademon at 12:32 PM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Has anyone else seen an uptick in "wedge trolling" ie divide and conquer topics in their local Facebook political groups? Prior examples are "I am a white person and a black person said something mean to me and what should I have said?" "Hillary took all our money and I don't see how anyone could have supported anyone who took all our money instead of Bernie." The trolls popped in right before local elections and other important events and sucked attention away. These examples are post-2016 election.

Right now it's "Chelsea Manning vs. Senator Cardin and how can you not support a trans woman against an old white guy!" There's a Glen Greenwald Intercept article out "Centrist Democrats Launch Smear Campaign Against Young Transgender Woman, All to Keep an Old, Straight, White Man in Power" (intentionally not linking, specifically not starting a discussion of that Senate race, sticking to discussion of trolling as divisive tactic).

I'm looking for articles with examples of Russian and Republican "wedge trolling" during the 2016 election to shut some of these trolled discussions down.
posted by jointhedance at 12:50 PM on January 18, 2018 [31 favorites]


Has anyone else seen an uptick in "wedge trolling" ie divide and conquer topics in their local Facebook political groups?

I'm pretty sure it was all in good faith, but one of my groups recently managed to divide itself pretty effectively over the issue of wearing the pink hats to the upcoming women's marches. Some of the articles that the anti-hat side were linking were really strange and made me wonder. (Not about the people pointing to the articles, but the provenance of the articles themselves.)
posted by diogenes at 1:03 PM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Only a specific minority—white conservatives—generally feels otherwise. And the effect isn't limited to policy, as it influenced whether citizens felt welcome in the place that they lived.

It's a point that gets lost in the rhetoric about fruit pickers and chicken pluckers, but if you're a top engineer from India or a Heart Surgeon from Germany - why would you come to America?

It only takes one paperwork mistake for the ICE to show up, shoot your dog, imprison your wife and ship your kids back - assuming that sort of "Chain Migration" is even allowed in the next few months/years. If you're a professional, working with or in America looks less and less appealing every day.

The Republicans are absolutely playing calvinball with the people lives and livelihoods, and it doesn't just affect Mexican migrant farm workers. This is a going to have massive repercussions throughout all industries.


A democratic congress and administration can reverse these policies and create legislative fixes. But that's not much reassurance, because the net effect of the Trump regime is that the message is loud and clear throughout the world - America is not a nation you can trust. What good is it working with America when you know the next administration can just flip things around on a whim. Immigration policies, trade policies, defense alliances, etc. So these policies can indeed have massive repercussions across the entire American economy, but it's not going to be as simple as fixing the damage Trump & cabal have done. America's reputation will take decades to fix.
posted by azpenguin at 1:06 PM on January 18, 2018 [21 favorites]


diogenes, are you in Maine? The Maine FB group just had a very similar blow out about pink hats. The only thing keeping me from flagging it as spam was that one of the anti-pink-hat posters is a very active Trans rights activist here in the State. It was so very frustrating to see people basically screaming at each other over hats.
posted by anastasiav at 1:07 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'm looking for articles with examples of Russian and Republican "wedge trolling" during the 2016 election to shut some of these trolled discussions down.

Where does Diane Rehm accusing Bernie Sanders of having Israeli citizenship fall into it? Was it malicious or was it her falling for fake news when she should have known better?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:12 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Where does Diane Rehm accusing Bernie Sanders of having Israeli citizenship fall into it? Was it malicious or was it her falling for fake news when she should have known better?

wait what? I missed that one- what was the context for that?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 1:16 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


This. Rehm' pretty politically left, and it came from a Facebook comment. And well, now what we know about Facebook during the election...
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:19 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Also this got covered in an election thread from 2015.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 1:20 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]




diogenes, are you in Maine? The Maine FB group just had a very similar blow out about pink hats. The only thing keeping me from flagging it as spam was that one of the anti-pink-hat posters is a very active Trans rights activist here in the State. It was so very frustrating to see people basically screaming at each other over hats.

Did the known real person start the blow out, or did they pick up someone else's kindling? Around here I'm seeing firestarter accounts that are very good at posing an inflammatory and divisive question and then feeding the flames whenever they look like they're dying down. Two days before the election, 300+ comment thread on DNC donation management, 10+ comment thread on GOTV.
posted by jointhedance at 1:23 PM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS): "...it appears the Russians, you know, infiltrated the NRA..."
posted by PenDevil at 1:27 PM on January 18, 2018 [39 favorites]


Legal mastermind Ty Cobb worries that if Mueller did interview Mr. Trump, it could be a perjury trap — that is, a situation in which his story does not match the evidence — something Cobb said "foolish" was not to consider.

A perjury trap, otherwise known as perjury?

A perjury trap, like where everyone knows that So-and-so is full of shit and Mueller can prove it, but So-and-so feels obligated to stick to his bullshit story? I think they call that “hoist by your own petard”.




OMG I literally LOLed when I read that. A "perjury trap", jeezus. It's like saying, "I won't go to a bank, because it could be an armed robbery trap. It would be foolish not to consider that I might find myself robbing the place."
posted by darkstar at 1:28 PM on January 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


Schadenfreude Dept:
Meet Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor and current nobody at Newark Liberty International Airport.

The two-term Republican, who left office on Jan. 16, was blocked from a VIP entrance he had used for eight years, and directed to stand in Transportation Security Administration screening lines at Terminal B like anyone else, according to a person familiar with the incident.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:28 PM on January 18, 2018 [134 favorites]


Also this got covered in an election thread from 2015.

It was, but in a facepalm way. We didn't know at the time that Facebook was infiltrated with people posting things like this at the behest of a foreign government.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:30 PM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


I can't think of any discussion about pink hats more important than literally everything else happening in the world. It's time for me to stop reserving my bandwidth for mindless infighting.
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 1:32 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


For example, if Bob asked Donald about Stormy Daniels (assuming the affair has nothing to do with Russia, and knowing Donald would almost definitely lie about it), that could be a trap.

Kenneth Starr *something, something* Monica Lewinski *something, something* impeachment...
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:37 PM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Shutdown Threat Looms: Senate Dems Stiffen Spines, House In Chaos (Cameron Joseph | TPM)

This story was updated at 4:15 p.m to include new developments in the House. Alice Ollstein contributed.

“The threat of a government shutdown seems to be growing by the minute — and Republicans are bracing to get blamed if it happens.”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:41 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Also in that Fusion GPS transcript: Fusion GPS: Kremlin ‘Purge’ Followed Trump Dossier Release
Glenn Simpson, the co-founder of opposition research firm Fusion GPS, told Congress in November that the Russian government appeared to “purge” people after his firm’s research on President Trump’s alleged Kremlin connections became public.

The Kremlin used the publication of his firm’s dossier—which contains salacious and unsubstantiated allegations about Trump—as a pretext for a spate of arrests and killings, Simpson said.

He also said some of those people who were purged may have been sources for the American intelligence community.
On the shutdown watch, here's the best summary of where we're at. @scottwongDC: Thursday: The House Freedom Caucus and Senate Democrats are competing to shut down the federal government

Trump is currently trying to talk to the Freedom Caucus, I'm not really sure how that helps but ok, but the Senate situation is also primed for a shutdown: they currently need 14 Democratic votes to keep the government open (without McCain, who is out, and Graham, Rand, Rounds, and Lee all say they are nos).
posted by zachlipton at 1:42 PM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


Where we are with the CR/shutdown-

Jon Lovett: The Republican leadership wants Republican votes but doesn't have them and has Democratic votes but doesn't want them.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:42 PM on January 18, 2018 [45 favorites]


Meet Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor and current nobody at Newark Liberty International Airport.

Christie was shipping up to Boston to meet with executives at DraftKings, the online fantasy-sports concern.
posted by adamg at 1:42 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


OMG I literally LOLed when I read that. A "perjury trap", jeezus. It's like saying, "I won't go to a bank, because it could be an armed robbery trap. It would be foolish not to consider that I might find myself robbing the place."

Yeah, a perjury trap is definitely a thing that someone might talk about when discussing a prosecutor's interviews with potential liars, but the subject's own defense attorney probably shouldn't be bringing it up.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:46 PM on January 18, 2018 [19 favorites]


Shutdown Threat Looms: Senate Dems Stiffen Spines, House In Chaos

Please, universe, pretty pretty please, drop a cartoon piano or anvil onto the next one of these fuckers who refers to Democrats in a headline about the (possible) shutdown.
posted by FelliniBlank at 1:47 PM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]




Oh my goodness the hats thing, I thought I was taking crazy pills. I'm so glad to see other people saying that's the non-issue I thought it was.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 1:58 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Trump did not, in fact, fix it.

@scottwongDC: MEADOWS says no deal after talking to TRUMP. He and Jordan heading to meet with Speaker now.

Where "now" apparently means after "I'm done talking to CNN."
posted by zachlipton at 1:59 PM on January 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP has been actively courting Russian oligarch money to funnel through PACs for years now

Remember the Republican outrage about the IRS scrutinizing tax-exempt groups? That's what this is all about. It has long been a principle of American politics that you can't fund political campaigns anonymously. Even after the Citizens United Supreme Court decision to allow unlimited donations, they still cannot be anonymous. Donations have to be in the public record.

To get around this, Republicans have set up tax-exempt 501(c)(4) groups, which are supposed to be for social welfare, and the law forbids them from having political campaigning as their primary purpose. The reason for this political limitation is that a 501(c)(4) allows anonymous donations. So Republicans have been using 501(c)(4) groups to collect anonymous donations, which they then transfer to political PACs as a way of laundering anonymous money. So the argument about illegal 501(c)(4)s wasn't about the tax exemption. These organizations don't have any profits to tax anyway. It is about illegal anonymous political donations.

So during elections, the IRS gave extra scrutiny to groups that call themselves, for example, The Tea Party of Wisconsin, because it was pretty obvious that this was an illegal 501(c)(4) organization whose primary purpose was electioneering.

The NRA also has a 501(c)(4) entity. The implication here is that Russians could give millions of dollars to the NRA anonymously and then the NRA could spend those illegal millions on the election by transferring them to a PAC. The original donors remained anonymous.

Remember this we you hear Republicans talking about the "unfair" IRS scrutiny of 501(c)(4) organizations during the Obama administration. It's all about illegal anonymous political money.
posted by JackFlash at 2:02 PM on January 18, 2018 [161 favorites]


Christie was shipping up to Boston to meet with executives at DraftKings, the online fantasy-sports concern.

Christie was the governor of New Jersey, a state divided equally between fervent NY Giants and Philadelphia Eagles fans. He chose to suck up to Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. If you're not a football fan, Dallas is the most hated rival of both teams and in the same division as both, so they play twice every year.

Fuck that asshole, and good luck if he thinks he's getting any traction with sports fans. That move was more craven than even his kowtowing to Trump.
posted by msalt at 2:04 PM on January 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


I wouldn't be shocked if Trump actually did "fix" it, if by "fix" we mean "push Republicans into some awful self-inflicted wound because they're still afraid of him calling them out by name on Twitter."

It's a little hard for me to see this actually coming to a shutdown. I'll be shocked if the Freedom Caucus doesn't cave at the last minute. But they're making all the other Republicans miserable for a couple days, so that part is nice.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:06 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


yeah but NJ did legalize online gaming during his term, so if its less about fandom and more about the bottom line maybe his is your guy>
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:07 PM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


Mother Jones has a Stormy Daniels story, and I won't even put the headline in here (and I'll warn you that even the URL, if you mouse over it, contains salacious details). The important part is that there are emails between two political consultants from Daniels' 2009 Senate campaign confirming Daniels had a relationship with Trump (and, non-sexually, I hope, Trump's affinity for Shark Week), despite the continued denials from Trump's team. As Mother Jones puts it:
But Cohen did not address the alleged $130,000 payout—a claim especially serious because it raises the issue of whether the president could be blackmailed or influenced by someone who possessed information about any untoward personal behavior he might have engaged in.
I realize many people do not care if he had a consensual affair. That's fine. I do care that someone who has been repeatedly accused of sexual assault, who brags on tape about committing sexual assault, who has been accused of blackmail by a foreign power, and who has access to the nation's most secret information, is paying hush money to cover up past acts and lying about it.
posted by zachlipton at 2:08 PM on January 18, 2018 [77 favorites]


I won't even put the headline in here (and I'll warn you that even the URL, if you mouse over it, contains salacious details)

I am weak and moused over the URL, and my lack of god—I am now thinking about getting rid of my internet connection forever.
posted by theredpen at 2:14 PM on January 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


Eh old fat guys have fetishes too. I don't get the faux horror at hearing details of Trump's sex life. He paid six figures to cover it up, we ought to at least get some amusement out of it.
posted by sotonohito at 2:18 PM on January 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


Wow. @ZoeTillman: BREAKING: The US attorney's office in DC is dismissing charges against all but 59 of the 188 defendants still facing charges in the Inauguration Day rioting cases. More soon. Filing
posted by zachlipton at 2:20 PM on January 18, 2018 [45 favorites]


Christie should be in jail ... in the form of a car perpetually stuck in traffic trying to get to the George Washington bridge. Complete with people honking at him and everything.
posted by Dashy at 2:21 PM on January 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


Fake account articles from HuffPo, NYT, Daily Kos. Not honed quite right, still looking for articles describing current firestarter wedge accounts. The "if you don't support Chelsea Manning you're transphobic" firestarter just popped up again in a local Facebook group. No pink hat argument here yet.
posted by jointhedance at 2:22 PM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Mousing over that URL gave me the first big belly laugh of the day!
posted by inexorably_forward at 2:22 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Re: Daniels, I read several major news outlets' stories today that they spiked the story in 2016 because they couldn't verify details.

That was the same week as pizzagate, am I right?
posted by Dashy at 2:23 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


still looking for articles describing current firestarter wedge accounts.

Missouri's senate primary isn't until August, and only one person has declared against Claire. I'll look out for any weirdness involving this race.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 2:26 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


CNN reports Feinstein is wavering in her opposition to a CR that doesn't include the Dream Act. I called her office and they say all they know is that she released the original statement saying she wouldn't vote for it, they hadn't heard about the interview comments from this afternoon.
posted by contraption at 2:28 PM on January 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


The "if you don't support Chelsea Manning you're transphobic" firestarter just popped up again in a local Facebook group.

If you needed any more evidence of outside influence on this, our buddy Greenwald's gone all in on this.
posted by NoxAeternum at 2:34 PM on January 18, 2018 [27 favorites]


I think the problem with Trump's sex life is the performative heterosexuality. He may well be heterosexual, but the way he needs to be very explicit about it makes him appear insecure and bigoted, and IMO very ugly.

When it comes to leaders, of any kind, insecurity is dangerous. It's more dangerous when you don't acknowledge it. A good leader might say: I'm unaccustomed with Catholicism but I have staff who can advise me about it. A bad leader will say I have the best wife and the biggest dick.
posted by mumimor at 2:47 PM on January 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


CNN reports Feinstein is wavering in her opposition to a CR that doesn't include the Dream Act.

I can confirm that a live human being at her DC office just told my mom (a constituent) that she is "holding firm on DACA."

The only part of CNN's reporting that really contravenes this (despite the implication that she would like to avoid a shutdown, even if it meant throwing Dreamers under the bus) is this line: Feinstein said she had not made her mind up about whether to vote for the measure.

Either CNN is wrong/out of date, or her constituent services people are lying to callers about whether she has a position/what that position is.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:47 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Politico, Eliana Johnson and Burgess Everett, How Trump's TV habits raised the risk of a shutdown, in which the President watching Fox & Friends this morning seems to have screwed everything up.

Meadows now says he's reached some kind of deal with Ryan involving military funding in the future and will encourage his caucus to vote yes on a CR (essentially, an offer to cave in exchange for legislation to be named later). If that actually happens and it passes the House, that puts all the pressure on the Senate, where there also aren't enough votes to keep the government open, at least right now. If it went down in the House, it would be easier to blame Republicans for failing to deliver a majority out of their members, but it's worth nothing that, no matter how much they'll whine about the filibuster, McConnell doesn't even have 50 Republican votes for a CR in the Senate.

I do firmly believe Democrats should hold the line and not vote for a CR unless there's a deal for Dreamers. There aren't a lot of places where we have leverage to undo Trump's damage, but this is one of those times, and we should take advantage of it.

That said, I don't want to be flippant about it. It pales in comparison to causing chaos for millions of government workers (who have no assurance Congress will authorize back pay, though they have have done so in the past) and people who rely on government services, but I don't entirely want to discount the emotional cost to a shutdown. Congress runs an approval rating on the order of 15% and has done so for years. Our legislative branch, as an institution, is a punchline, so pathetic it can't manage to do three things with overwhelming bipartisan popular support: keep the government open; provide health insurance to children; and not deport Dreamers.

I want to win, and withholding votes for a CR that doesn't protect vulnerable people is, again, the right move, but I'd also like Congress to not be a sick joke, and a shutdown moves us in the wrong direction on that. I know, it's not a "both sides" problem, and there's no sense in putting virtues nobody cares about ahead of actual people who need help, but I just wish for a moment the fight was about who to thank for solving problems rather than who to blame for causing them.
posted by zachlipton at 2:59 PM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


@costareports: At the Cap as night falls. Pizza boxes being delivered to House GOP leadership, aides rushing by. Hard-liners sending me furious text messages. A shutdown looms. Feels strangely familiar... #2013
posted by zabuni at 3:01 PM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


I can confirm that a live human being at her DC office just told my mom (a constituent) that she is "holding firm on DACA."
...
Either CNN is wrong/out of date, or her constituent services people are lying to callers

The live person I spoke with told me (also a constituent) something similar, then when I specifically asked about the interview cited by CNN they said they weren't aware of it.

The CNN article mentions the statement from this morning, and also says that Feinstein was asked about it specifically before reiterating that she still wasn't sure how she was going to vote. Clearly there is some confusion within the ranks, and hopefully it's just a matter of the Senator trying to maintain her bullshit "moderate" poker face without remembering that her organization had decided to release the statement already.
posted by contraption at 3:04 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


WSJ, Joe Palazzolo and Michael Rothfeld, Trump Lawyer Used Private Company, Pseudonyms to Pay Porn Star ‘Stormy Daniels’
President Donald Trump’s lawyer used a private Delaware company to pay a former adult-film star $130,000 in return for her agreeing to not publicly discuss an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump, according to corporate records and people familiar with the matter.

The lawyer, Michael Cohen, established Essential Consultants LLC, on Oct. 17, 2016, just before the 2016 presidential election, corporate documents show. Mr. Cohen, who is based in New York, then used a bank account linked to the entity to send the payment to the client-trust account of a lawyer representing the woman, Stephanie Clifford, one of the people said.
posted by zachlipton at 3:05 PM on January 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


Also Counterpunch 1/16/18: "Why Senator Cardin is a Fitting Opponent for Chelsea Manning"
Summary: Senator Cardin is too mean to the Russians
(again intentionally not linking)

How does Counterpunch pay its bills?
posted by jointhedance at 3:14 PM on January 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


129 of the DisruptJ20 protesters have finally had charges dropped by the DC US Attorney's Office, so now only 59 people are looking at multiple felony charges for being in the vicinity of a minuscule trash fire. It's not enough, but it's at least a little heartening to see the momentum shifting on the case between this and the not guilty verdicts in the first trial.
posted by Copronymus at 3:20 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


@srl: Breaking News: U.S. Supreme Court grants stay in NC partisan gerrymandering case, meaning that it will not have to redraw Congressional map ahead of 2018 election for now
posted by zachlipton at 3:28 PM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


You'd think they'd want to redraw the maps so that they don't get wiped out in the wave.
posted by Talez at 3:31 PM on January 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


I, too, called Sen. Feinstein's office today - along with Sen. Harris - to confirm that both of them were voting against a CR unless it had both a clean Dream Act and CHIP funding, and I was told that was correct - Feinstein was (they said) committed to fixing DACA as part of this vote.

I mean, this statement on Feinstein's website dated today seems pretty unequivocal:
“I said in December that I wouldn’t vote for a CR without the Dream Act, and I won’t do so now.

“I’m also hopeful that we can get away from continuing resolutions and get back to regular order. We can’t solve problems by funding the government a few weeks at a time. As a longtime member of the Appropriations Committee, I know the importance of funding the military and government agencies for a full-year.

“I’m hopeful that other senators won’t kick this can down the road yet again. We need to get the Dream Act passed, negotiate a multi-year budget agreement and fund the government through September, and we need to do so now.”
posted by kristi at 3:31 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Of course they did. We need to assume that any court victory on voting rights will only take effect over John Roberts' dead body.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 3:33 PM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


Freedom Caucus caved for effectively nothing, will support the CR. They say in exchange they'll get votes on a defense spending bill and the Goodlatte DACA bill if they can get to 218 (a conservative plan that's an absolute non-starter in the Senate), basically angling for future leverage for themselves. What they're really doing is ensuring the House passes a CR so they can put all the pressure on the Senate. If the CR goes down in the Senate, it will be easier to blame Democrats, but again, McConnell doesn't even have 50 votes from his own party, let alone the 60 bipartisian votes needed to pass it.

In other news, USA Today, Fredreka Schouten, A record $107 million was raised for Trump’s inauguration. So where did it all go? No one will say.
posted by zachlipton at 3:42 PM on January 18, 2018 [23 favorites]


Talez has a good point though: if there's a sufficiently large wave against the dominant party in a gerrymandered electorate it actually works against that party. We can only hope it's large enough for the Democrats to win control of the respective legislatures and that they seize the opportunity to have fairer maps drawn.

I'd add that control of electoral boundaries needs to be in the hands of a non-partisan body (as it is in many other countries) but from what I can see there's basically no such thing in the USA: for historical reasons, everything anyone cares about is politicised.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:43 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Am I the only one who thinks we're counting our waves before they hatch? The signs so far have been good but Trump's approval ratings are moving upwards slowly but steadily and there are 10 months to go. If his approval is around 45 by then it's quite possible they'll hold the house and gain a couple seats in the Senate.
posted by Justinian at 3:47 PM on January 18, 2018 [39 favorites]


Also, there was a generational wave in the Virginia state election that still couldn't break the gerrymander there.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 3:49 PM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


for historical reasons, everything anyone cares about is politicised.

It's a strain of individualism that's been cultivated by popular legend which runs counter to and viscerally reacts to any sort of collectivism no matter how valid.
posted by Talez at 3:49 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]




You have to be ready for the possibility of victory.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:50 PM on January 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


Trump appointee Carl Higbie resigns as public face of agency that runs AmeriCorps after KFile review of racist, sexist, ant.i-Muslim and anti-LGBT comments on the radio

Man... I was expecting something bad but those comments are VILE...
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 3:52 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Also, there was a generational wave in the Virginia state election that still couldn't break the gerrymander there.

Yeah. I've brought up the "gerrymandering makes you susceptible to waves" thing myself, so I'll argue with myself about it now. That's true to a point. But it is far more true with old-style gerrymandered maps done before computers and literal house-by-house data input. You can draw wave-resistant gerrymanders with that sort of math and data.

Obviously the more wave-resistant you make your gerrymander the less of an advantage it gives you in normal years and vice versa. If you make your districts 55-45 you get a ton of extra seats normally but lose 'em all in waves. If you make your districts 62-38 you get fewer extra seats in normal years but dont lose the seats except in truly massive waves.

I don't actually know how the NC districts are drawn on this spectrum. But it is possible to be wave resistant... though it costs in normal years as I said.
posted by Justinian at 3:53 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


House Freedom Caucus blinked. They got additional military funding. God knows what for, the military already gets funded more than the next eight countries combined. Do they need another fucking missile?
posted by Talez at 3:53 PM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


Yes. I started to paste some of them over here but decided against it.
posted by glonous keming at 3:54 PM on January 18, 2018


(Leftist update, if you want to attend the NYC Women’s March with a bunch of gosh darned socialists I made an IRL)
posted by The Whelk at 3:56 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


>> For the record, it looks like the term "Girthers" (to refer to doubters of the President's reported weight) is being attributed to MSNBC's Chris Hayes.

> Pretty funny, but encourages a false equivalence.

Politico is on the case!

Why 'Girthers' Are the Biggest LosersLiberals think Trump lies about his weight because the powerless always love conspiracy theories.

Here's a good takedown, demonstrating many examples of nonsensical logic and false equivalency:
There's a lot wrong here, but let me point you to just one thing: Uscinski says conspiracy theories are for losers -- and then tells us (correctly) that Donald Trump regularly engages in them. Um, didn't he win the election? So why is he still a conspiratorialist? And why was he a conspiratorialist with regard to, say, Ted Cruz when he was beating Ted Cruz? "Conspiracy theories are for losers" is Uscinski's big idea -- you can watch him deliver a lecture by that name -- and yet Trump proves him wrong. So why should we pay attention to anything Uscinski says?
It gets worse, if you can believe that.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:03 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


Politico were big buttery males people right? A good takedown would just be a general statement that due to their actions during and after the primary Politico can no longer be trusted as a source.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:21 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Right now it's "Chelsea Manning vs. Senator Cardin and how can you not support a trans woman against an old white guy!"

I've seen the claim that Cardin is known for being tough on Russia, with the implication that Manning is primarying him because she's one of Russia's useful idiots on the left, like Greenwald.
posted by acb at 4:25 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


Where does he think he gets the right to tell people he represents to not contact him? What a colossal ASSHOLE.

My own House Rep, Bill Flores, is in the middle of a minor controversy because of how many comments he deletes from his social media and how many constituents he's blocked on facebook, merely for disagreeing with him. There's someone posting all the deleted comments to a special page, and the local paper has a good story on it.

One of the issues is that he refuses to have in-person town halls, and people he's blocked can't participate in his online town halls, where the questions are all screened in advance. There's quite a lot of anger about this, and not just from liberal resistance types, from what I can tell. My husband is blocked, but he did use profanity, only after his first comment on healthcare was deleted.
posted by threeturtles at 4:29 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


This got stupider. Bloomberg is reporting that House Conservatives made a new demand in exchange for their votes for the CR: releasing classified documents that attack FBI and DOJ over the origins of the Russia investigation.

I'm guessing Ryan didn't bite, but what an utterly absurd and irresponsible demand.
posted by zachlipton at 4:32 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


House votes for a one-month CR, 230-197 (11 Republicans against, 5 Democrats in favor), kicking it over to the Senate.
posted by zachlipton at 4:39 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


"Conspiracy theories are for losers" is Uscinski's big idea -- you can watch him deliver a lecture by that name -- and yet Trump proves him wrong.

If you watch the talk, his point is that Trump built a coalition of conspiracy theorists (it's in the last couple of minutes.) It's not that Trump himself was a loser, but that his voters perceived themselves as such.
posted by Coventry at 4:42 PM on January 18, 2018


Cardin could probably stand to be slightly more liberal given the state he represents but I don't see any particularly compelling reason to support primarying him out. Manning is probably a perfectly fine person but so are a lot of people. I wouldn't vote for them for Senate.
posted by Justinian at 4:51 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


Do not miss the Mother Jones article linked above. It's not that salacious. It is, however, fucking hilarious. My sides hurt so much.
“Yep,” the other consultant replied. “She says one time he made her sit with him for three hours watching ‘shark week.’ Another time he had her spank him with a Forbes magazine.” ... Daniels said the spanking came during a series of sexual and romantic encounters with Trump and that it involved a copy of Forbes with Trump on the cover.

AHAHAHAHA Forbes!? HAHAHA with heheeeeeee his own heeeheehe face heeheeee I'm dying help meeeee oh my fucking god. Shark week! FORBES! AAAAAHAHAHA.
posted by loquacious at 4:52 PM on January 18, 2018 [45 favorites]


"A fall 2006 cover of Forbes does feature Trump and two of his children, Donald Jr. and Ivanka."
posted by kirkaracha at 5:01 PM on January 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


I... guess I can see why he would be into roleplaying having his head shoved up his own ass?
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:02 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


I mean what the fuck would make you want to be spanked with your own photograph. I'm totally asking my shrink this at our session tomorrow (Trump discussions take up roughly .25 of our meetings)
posted by angrycat at 5:05 PM on January 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


I mean what the fuck would make you want to be spanked with your own photograph.

I think the more likely explanation is that he wanted to be spanked with something, and copies of a recent magazine with his face on the cover was just what he happened to have in towering stacks covering every horizontal surface.
posted by contraption at 5:11 PM on January 18, 2018 [23 favorites]


Looming shutdown raises fundamental question: Can GOP govern? (WaPo / Business)
The Republican Party’s struggle to forge a plan to keep the government open exposes deep, intractable rifts that raise questions about its ability to govern, with GOP leaders handcuffed by party divisions and whipsawed by President Trump’s outbursts on how to proceed.

The poisonous dynamic has now pushed Washington to the brink of a partial government shutdown, which will occur after midnight Friday if a one-month spending bill fails to pass Congress.

A funding lapse would mark the first time in U.S. history that there has been a government shutdown, with federal employees furloughed, when one party controlled both Congress and the White House.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:11 PM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


Over on twitter The Hoarse Whisperer has just read through the House Intel Committee testimony by Fusion GPS and it has some great information which I had not read before— it’s mostly about the Russians funding all of Trump’s enterprises but one detail is that Trump is still relying on trust fund money set up by his father. That has to hurt his pride. No matter how many golf courses he builds he can’t seem to get the hang of turning a profit.

Also news to me: The Kushners are Ethnically Russian Jews with lots of ties to other Russian families in NYC.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:17 PM on January 18, 2018 [21 favorites]


Mod note: Let’s let the Manning run go for the moment, or it’s going to eat the thread. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 5:34 PM on January 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


The House Intel Committee's transcripts of Glenn Simpson's testimony are available online:
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Tuesday, November 14, 2017

There's a ton of fascinating information that's going to take a while for the news media to sift through. Some of Simpson's assertions about Trump's financial affairs are brutal, especially in the context of Russian money-laundering:
MR. SIMPSON: The other one that is -- was concerning to us was - is the golf courses in Scotland and Ireland.
MR. SCHIFF: And did you see Russian money involved with those as well?
MR. SIMPSON: Well, we had -- you know, we saw what Eric Trump said about Russian money being available for his golf -- for the golf course projects, making remarks about having unlimited sums available. And, you know , because Mr. Trump's companies are generally not publicly traded and don't do a lot of public disclosure, we can only look -- have a limited look into the financing of those projects.
But because the Irish courses and the Scottish courses are under U.K., you know, Anglo corporate law, they have -- they file financial statements. So we were able to get the financial statements. And they don't, on their face, show Russian involvement, but what they do show is enormous amounts of capital flowing into these projects from unknown sources and - or at least on paper it says it's from The Trump Organization, but it's hundreds of millions of dollars.
And these golf course are just, you know, they're sinks. They don't actually make any money.
So, you know, if you're familiar with Donald Trump's finances and the litigation over whether he's really a billionaire, you know, there's good reason to believe he doesn't have enough money to do this and that he would have had to have outside financial support for these things.
Again, you know, because of what I do, it's sort of in this middle area where we mostly are working off public records. A lot of what I do is analyze whether things make sense and whether they can be explained. And that didn't make sense to me, doesn't make sense to me to this day.[...]
MR. SCHIFF: [...] If the Russians were laundering money through Trump golf courses or Trump condos, would the Russian Government be aware of this? Would they be either knowing or active participants potentially in this?
MR. SIMPSON: Well, so what is well known and well established in criminology now is that the Russian mafia is essentially under the dominion of the Russian Government and Russian Intelligence Services. And many of the oligarchs are also mafia figures.
And the oligarchs, during this period of consolidation of power by Vladimir Putin, when I was living in Brussels and doing all this work, was about him essentially taking control over both the oligarchs and the mafia groups.
And so basically everyone in Russia works for Putin now.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:35 PM on January 18, 2018 [75 favorites]


The article Barack Spinoza posted really says it all:

After one year of complete GOP control in Washington, the government’s budget picture has only worsened. It now has roughly $21 trillion in debt. The U.S. government spent $666 billion more than it brought in through revenue last year, and that figure is expected to grow this year because of the deep tax cuts that went into effect Jan. 1.

Ryan said Thursday that this part of governing has faltered because of intransigence by Senate Democrats, whose support is necessary for any spending bill to pass into law. But Republicans haven’t held any votes on these measures in the Senate Appropriations Committee or the Senate floor, as it’s unclear whether they have enough support within the party to pass any of the bills.


Some days I feel like the incompetence of these people is actually preventing them from unleashing their total hellscape vision, but days like this I see their incompetence as an anchor dragging us all to the bottom.
posted by mostly vowels at 5:47 PM on January 18, 2018 [36 favorites]


I mean what the fuck would make you want to be spanked with your own photograph.

There are other people on the cover, one of whom Trump has repeatedly commented about finding sexy.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:50 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


I don't want to say much about the Forbes thing, but you have to think that ol' Berkeley Breathed is going to read that in the news and hang his head in shame with a "Why didn't I think of that!?" It is a scene literally ripped from a cartoon. If you were going to lampoon Donald Trump, and you wanted to stage him in a salacious scene with some kind of absurd sexual fetish, you could NOT do better than "getting spanked with a rolled up copy of Forbes."
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:05 PM on January 18, 2018 [51 favorites]


Oh god, Trump is totally going to Streisand Effect the fuck out of the Forbes thing tomorrow, isn't he? Heaven help us all.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:07 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Is there any major legislation coming up in the Senate? If not, after this CR shitshow would be a great time for Thad Cochran to bail. I would imagine McCain's close to calling it quits, too.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:11 PM on January 18, 2018


Oh god, Trump is totally going to Streisand Effect the fuck out of the Forbes thing tomorrow, isn't he? Heaven help us all.

Take a moment to pour one out for the social media people at Forbes.
posted by nubs at 6:21 PM on January 18, 2018 [41 favorites]


Between the money laundering, the collusion, and the porn star hush money, as long as we get a “Strange Bedfellows” headline out of this, it’ll all have been worth it.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:27 PM on January 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


"Between the money laundering, the collusion, and the porn star hush money, as long as we get a “Strange Bedfellows” headline out of this, it’ll all have been worth it."

What a time this is, when the Special Counsel learns of "porn star hush money", he's like "spike that for now, we got the conspiracy with Russia and money laundering to finish with, and at least porn star hush money doesn't create another dozen leads every damned tweet"
posted by mikelieman at 6:35 PM on January 18, 2018 [20 favorites]


Forbes? Yawn. Wake me up when we find out Ms. Daniels spanked him with 2.9 million votes. Oh wait, no that was someone else.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 6:50 PM on January 18, 2018 [97 favorites]


Optics question: can the Democrats credit blame Republicans for the shutdown if averting it requires 60 Senate votes? It was more straightforward in the House with the Freedom Caucus screwing things up on the GOP side but blocking in the Senate feels riskier.
posted by Rhaomi at 6:52 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Optics question: can the Democrats credit blame Republicans for the shutdown if averting it requires 60 Senate votes? It was more straightforward in the House with the Freedom Caucus screwing things up on the GOP side but blocking in the Senate feels riskier.

Hard to blame the filibuster/cloture rules when Senate Rs don't even have 50.

And the bipartisan agreement that McConnell won't bring to a vote has enough votes to pass.
posted by chris24 at 6:59 PM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Depends how sure they are that Repub Nos will remain Nos. If they could be sure that it'd fall short they could vote for cloture, then all vote party line and let the Repubs fail to reach 50.

Realistically, though, the moment they do that the GOP Nos will switch to yes For The Good Of The Country and Thinking Of The Children and Look! Democrats All Hate CHIP. Plus DACA remains in limbo. So one way or another they have to eat the bug and require 60 because it is the only leverage they possess.
posted by delfin at 7:00 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Here's the CSPAN feed for Senate floor. Chat is open.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:06 PM on January 18, 2018


Shutdown update:
@RyanMcCrimmon: The Senate:

McConnell proposed voting on final passage tonight, and Schumer objected.

Minutes later, Schumer proposed taking the cloture vote tonight, and McConnell objected.
@nielslesniewski: Appears that Schumer wants to have the failed vote as soon as possible, while McConnell wants it taking place on the brink.

Schumer also pitched a CR that lasts a couple days so there can be more negotiation, but was turned down. And the Senate was being sent home for the night, but Sen. King just objected to adjourning the Senate, so, er, drama. He's demanding a cloture vote tonight (a cloture vote would force McConnell to show his cards tonight and reveal whether Republicans even have 50 votes among themselves, which they don't publicly).

Optics question: can the Democrats credit blame Republicans for the shutdown if averting it requires 60 Senate votes? It was more straightforward in the House with the Freedom Caucus screwing things up on the GOP side but blocking in the Senate feels riskier.

Both sides will, of course, blame each other, and yes, it would have been easier if things fell apart in the House. Democrats will say Republicans control both chambers and the Presidency and they're responsible. Republicans will say Democrats voted against it. But that's part of the reason for tonight's gamesmanship by Schumer. As of right now, McConnell doesn't even have 50 Republican votes for a CR (McCain is out and Graham, Rand, Rounds, and Lee are all opposed). He might get the votes, solely so he can pile more blame on Democrats, but he doesn't have them.

So Schumer is playing his hand well, as far as I can see. He can argue he proposed a short-term deal so negotiations can continue, that he wanted a vote Thursday so there'd be more time to deal Friday, and that McConnell couldn't even deliver 50 votes himself so it's absurd to expect Democrats to do his job. If you support Democrats, you'll buy that, and if you don't, you won't. "Republicans don't have 50 votes" is not a bad argument, but there's only so many people who will hear it and care. Frankly, I think a lot of people will just express disgust at government in general, because most people don't have a curated set of Congressional reporters they follow for this kind of minutia. That's not, politically-speaking, such a bad thing if you're not the party in power, but it's not good for democracy either.

Trump is set to fly to Mar-a-Lago tomorrow afternoon and the House is set to go on vacation next week (yes, 12 legislative days gets them a week off). That's all going to look awful if they don't come up with something tomorrow.
posted by zachlipton at 7:08 PM on January 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


If they went through the regular budget process instead of CR’s, they’d only need 50 votes in the Senate.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:13 PM on January 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Senate adjourned until 11AM.
posted by Rykey at 7:16 PM on January 18, 2018


(The Senate managed to adjourn.)

Speaking of shutdown optics, my non-professional opinion is that this would make for bad ones: Bloomberg, Trump to Mark One-Year Anniversary With Gala at Mar-a-Lago
President Donald Trump will mark the first anniversary of his inauguration on Saturday with a celebration at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, with tickets starting at $100,000 a pair.

That amount, according to the invitation, will pay for dinner and a photograph with the president. For $250,000, a couple can also take part in a roundtable.
The money goes to the Trump campaign and the RNC.
posted by zachlipton at 7:18 PM on January 18, 2018 [15 favorites]


Flake refusing to vote for the month-long CR would be the very first indication that he's going to even make a nod in the direction of putting his money where his mouth is, wouldn't it?
posted by Justinian at 7:52 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


If they went through the regular budget process instead of CR’s, they’d only need 50 votes in the Senate.

They blew reconciliation on the tax cuts so they can't jam it through like that.
posted by Talez at 7:54 PM on January 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Not even reconciliation. Appropriations bills considered under a budget resolution are filibuster-proof.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 8:00 PM on January 18, 2018


You can read Flake's statement, which is legit. I mean, spare me the whole nonsense about how McConnell promised him a DACA vote in January, because everybody knew McConnell was lying to him, but he's not wrong. Hilariously, McConnell bought off Rounds with a promise of a defense vote, only to lose Flake within minutes, so he's in the same place: 46 Republican votes.

Schumer's got a good gambit going with his "we'll vote for a really short CR into next week so we can keep negotiating" play. If there is a shutdown, he can point to that offer and say he was against a shutdown. If they take the deal, he'll expose that McConnell can't sell his own CR to his own party, and we can play this game again next week with Democrats having more leverage and vacations ruined.
posted by zachlipton at 8:01 PM on January 18, 2018 [21 favorites]


President Donald Pussy grabber will mark the first anniversary of his inauguration on Saturday with a celebration at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, with tickets starting at $100,000 a pair.

Somehow, long ago after probably taking one of the 'How is Trump doing, Great/Good/OK/Other?' surveys, I got a throwaway email onto a list with the Trump/RNC campaign fundraising. They've been pushing this gala hard the past few weeks, with emails coming from Eric, Lara, 'Trump Headquarters,' DonaldJTrump.com,
etc, and all of them from contact@victory.donaldtrump.com. Donate $1 now for a chance to win!
Friend,

If you thought January 20th, 2017 was fantastic - the day We the People inaugurated Donald J. Trump President of the United States - just imagine spending January 20th, 2018 having dinner with President Trump, Eric, and Lara.
baaaaarf
Friend, the President asked to ensure all of his loyal supporters heard about this special dinner with the whole family at the most beautiful spot in Florida for an evening you’ll NEVER forget.
yeh because I'm baaaaarfing all over everything at the Barf-a-lago.

The contrast with DNC fundraising and polling via email is stark. But, stepping back and listening to the racket from both sides at a distance has me convinced that the money in politics is going to be the hardest challenge America will face as a country outside of global warming. Watch racism and sexism and bigotry erode as society and globalism progress, but the whole point of money is to grow and multiply and it will never wane as a force.

It surprises me not one bit that the gaping anonymous Citizens United/non-profit political cash loophole has widened to accommodate millions in Russian oligarch money, nor will it if the craven individuals elected to Congress are outed on both sides of the aisle.
posted by carsonb at 8:10 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


President Donald Trump will mark the first anniversary of his inauguration on Saturday with a celebration at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, with tickets starting at $100,000 a pair.

Man of the people. The rich people. How about the economically-anxious working class?

400 coal mining jobs created in May
...Trump and his surrogates have suggested a coal jobs boom is either here or in the works, thanks to the president's efforts to roll back job-killing regulations.

Related: There is no coal jobs boom
Built-in narrator voice in the article!

Coal Country Is Back, Along With Signing Bonuses and Pay Raises
The gossip here is no longer about mine closures and mass layoffs. Miners are snagging $1,000 signing bonuses, fully paid health insurance and raises again. (Justice just earned a 50-cent-an-hour bump.)
That 50-cent bump on top of a coal miner's average wage of $23.04 per hour should make it easy to afford those tickets.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:19 PM on January 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Somehow the idea that there are "gala events" which cost $50,000 each is just the cherry on the shit-sundae that is has been my day.
posted by maxwelton at 8:38 PM on January 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** PA-18 special -- The only public poll so far of this race had Republican Saccone up 12 points on Democrate Lamb. But internal polls on both sides now have the race in single digits.

** 2018 House:
-- In an unusual move, two sitting Dem reps have endorsed the challenger in the IL-03 Dem primary. Current incumbent Dan Lipinski is a poor fit for the district, regularly ranking as one of the most conservative members of the caucus.

-- The Dem lead in the generic ballot has been drifting down a bit over the past week (538 average: D+8.2), but a new Pew survey has them +14. More of interest, perhaps, is the crosstabs - more of the educational divide we've been seeing. Dems are near tied with high school grads, decent lead with college grads, enormous lead with post-grads. Historically, there's been much less correlation.
** 2018 Senate -- In Mississippi, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley has decided not to challenge incumbent Roger Wicker. This is a disappointment to Dems, as Presley is popular in MS, and it's not like they have a super deep bench there. Presley's shot was mostly if nutjob state Senator Chris McDaniel challenged Wicker and got the GOP nomination. McDaniel has been waffling, though, and probably won't run.

However, Presley was careful to say he wasn't running for the regular election, leaving the door open for him to run in the special that would result if Thad Cochran resigns, as he is widely expected to do.

** Odds & ends:
-- Reminding Metafilter greybeards that Time's wingèd chariot is always hurrying near, Ned Lamont is officially in the race for Connecticut governor.

-- Orion Strategies poll in West Virginia has Trump approval just above water, 51/48.

-- Nice map of Dem overperformance in specials.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:03 PM on January 18, 2018 [35 favorites]


Also news to me: The Kushners are Ethnically Russian Jews with lots of ties to other Russian families in NYC.

Can we please not do this? This isn't coming from a good place: nobody is interested in other possible conspirators being ethnically Irish, German, or Italian. It's not even true, although that's beside the point. Speculating about people's propensity to criminality based on their religion or ethnicity is the crudest sort of prejudice.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:05 PM on January 18, 2018 [57 favorites]


Schumer's got a good gambit going with his "we'll vote for a really short CR into next week so we can keep negotiating" play. If there is a shutdown, he can point to that offer and say he was against a shutdown. If they take the deal, he'll expose that McConnell can't sell his own CR to his own party, and we can play this game again next week with Democrats having more leverage and vacations ruined.

This is certainly cogent reasoning to smart people, but do you honestly think it'll fly with people who aren't paying attention? McConnell will blame the Democrats, NYT will run a headline about Dems shutting down givernment, 45 skates yet again.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:06 PM on January 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


Somehow the idea that there are "gala events" which cost $50,000 each is just the cherry on the shit-sundae that is has been my day.

As distasteful as this seems, it isn't unusual for a presidential fund raiser. What is unusual and should be a crime is that hundreds of thousands of dollars will be skimmed into Trump's personal pocket for "facility fees" at Mar-a-Lago.
posted by JackFlash at 9:15 PM on January 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


Well, shit, we didn't have to wait for the Times.

WaPo: Shutdown looms as Senate Democrats threaten GOP plan
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:29 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


From twitter - a writer who studies farming and land policy just flew from the UK:

U.S. Passport checking guy...
“What do you do?”
“I’m a writer”
“You haven’t come to write bad stuff about our president have you?”
Long silence whilst I worked out if he was actually serious
Stony official stare from him until I said
“No”
Then waved in to USA

posted by bluecore at 9:38 PM on January 18, 2018 [89 favorites]


Well that's a delightful bit of fucked up authoritarianism.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:42 PM on January 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


This isn't coming from a good place

or from a place that has any idea why formerly Russian Jews have historically stopped being Russian. if it were true, this would be ignorant almost to the point of being more funny than offensive. almost.
posted by queenofbithynia at 9:51 PM on January 18, 2018 [22 favorites]


The Shallow State strikes. Forces aligned with Devin Nunes have used their illicit access to FBI files to create a "highly classified" memo alleging abuses in American technical intelligence collection systems. First up, FoxNews's very credulous & highly agitated take: GOP lawmakers demand that 'alarming' memo on FISA abuses be made public. And now a more rational, measured take by one of the bloggers at Balloon Juice blog: Heads Up: Partisan Disinformation Incoming. True or twisted, this looks like a big deal.
posted by scalefree at 11:02 PM on January 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Oh, just to offset that immigration story here above:

US immigration officer: Stamp, check, look, stamp (what immigration officers do).
Immigration officer next desk, to other traveler: "Welcome to the USA!"
Traveler next desk, shouting to the room: "The GRREatest country of the world!!"
Our immigration officer, with a funny half-twist of his head, to us: "Well, I guess, people are being sarcastic."
Then waved into USA.
posted by Namlit at 11:07 PM on January 18, 2018 [41 favorites]


Mulvaney, who won the stand-off to head the CFPB, has requested $0.00 for its funding.

Literally, defunding the government.
posted by Dashy at 11:24 PM on January 18, 2018 [35 favorites]


...Trump and his surrogates have suggested a coal jobs boom is either here or in the works, thanks to the president's efforts to roll back job-killing regulations.

Related: There is no coal jobs boom


There is no coal jobs boom, but there has been a boom in coal miners dying on the job. One of the most fucked-up things about it is that West Virginia mines around 10% of the coal mined in the US but still managed to have more than half of the total mining deaths.
posted by Copronymus at 11:33 PM on January 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


Also news to me: The Kushners are Ethnically Russian Jews with lots of ties to other Russian families in NYC.

Can we please not do this


Seriously, this is offensive. By that logic I'm an 'ethnically Ukrainian and Hungarian Jew' and that makes me exactly not at all loyal or inclined to affinity with Kiev, or the Donbass, or Viktor Orban.

Eff right off with that thinking. Blood and soil indeed. Those countries did everything they could to be rid of the Jews they couldn't kill. What ignorance.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:53 AM on January 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


Wow. There's this releasethememo hashtag on twitter that calls for the release of some super secret memo written by Nunes that proves Clinton and Obama are definitely going to jail. Hannity talked about it and now a few Republican congressmen have jumped on board.

This is the craziest thing I've seen on twitter. It became the #1 trending topic on twitter around the world in a matter of hours, in the middle of the night. Every comment is literally 30% bots. Their not even trying to hide it, they have no pictures and 3 followers.

Someone is freaking out. People are losing their damn minds.
posted by bongo_x at 2:17 AM on January 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


Steve King's tweet about the memo is remarkably incoherent:
I have read the memo. The sickening reality has set in. I no longer hold out hope there is an innocent explanation for the information the public has seen. I have long said it is worse than Watergate. It was #neverTrump & #alwaysHillary. #releasethememo
If he has long been saying that there are government abuses worse than Watergate going on, how is it that he thought there was an innocent explanation until just this moment? Also, trying to co-opt and reverse the meaning of #neverTrump seems pretty strange, although it's not like there was ever any difference between a neverTrump conservative and any other anyway.

He's not the only Republican congressman claiming both that he has personally read the memo and also that it contains evidence of serious crimes, however. It seems like this is a couple of steps beyond the usual Republican noise-making, right? They're always insisting that whoever they hate today is breaking the law, but isn't it usually more general "they're criminals and we all know it" and less "I personally have evidence of specific crimes they committed"? Is this just desperation to draw attention away from their total inability to keep their government functioning, or is there something else happening here?
posted by IAmUnaware at 2:48 AM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


If it's so incriminating, do a Feinstein and release the details yourself, you rebublican tool! If you don't have a copy, get the person that shared it with you to release it, or give it to you to release. Or, why not outline the details and shame it all into public discourse.

Oh, yeah. You've got nothing.
posted by michswiss at 2:57 AM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


If this bogus memo is about FISA warrant abuse, then surely the object of their rage should be Obama not Hillary? Are they trying to to avoid going after Obama and unleashing further Dem mobilisation in 2018?
posted by PenDevil at 2:57 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


AFAIK the conspiracy theory is that Obama abused the FISA warrant to help Hillary win the election. And something about the dossier which makes no sense since it was normal oppo research unrelated to anything, but which "connects" the FISA abuse directly to the Hillary campaign. I repeat: this is the crazy theory, it has nothing to do with reality. Republicans aren't very comfortable with reality so they probably "believe" the theory, like cultists believe in their leader because they have to.
posted by mumimor at 3:13 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


By the way, to underscore what bongo_x is saying about this being crazy, #releasethememo is currently trending with 866,000 tweets recently containing the hashtag. To put that in perspective, the second-highest trending hashtag right now is showing 4790 relevant tweets. This has happened largely over the last few hours, which is to say during the middle of the night here in America. It seems like a LOT of this activity is bots, looking at the tweets themselves and their likes and retweets. I'm also seeing quite a bit of #QAnon.
posted by IAmUnaware at 3:15 AM on January 19, 2018 [38 favorites]


a celebration at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, with tickets starting at $100,000 a pair.

Janine Pirro: Well, it ain't no shithole.

Narrator: It's a shithole.
posted by Rykey at 3:15 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Having a six figure gala when the government's shut down is some A+ "let them eat cake" PR work.
posted by chris24 at 3:19 AM on January 19, 2018 [52 favorites]


It appears WikiLeaks is offering up to $1 million in matched funding for a copy of the memo as well, per https://www.lipstickalley.com/threads/releasethememo-the-bots-are-going-crazy.1400034/ (other info/tweet charts/etc. there as well).

Although it also seems to me that if the memo isn't leaked they presumably just keep the cash.
posted by Buntix at 3:22 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


"Trump will let you take a photo with him this weekend for US$100,000. He’ll even throw in dinner for two" (South China Morning Post)
posted by Mister Bijou at 3:27 AM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


By the way, to underscore what bongo_x is saying about this being crazy, #releasethememo is currently trending with 866,000 tweets recently containing the hashtag. To put that in perspective, the second-highest trending hashtag right now is showing 4790 relevant tweets. This has happened largely over the last few hours, which is to say during the middle of the night here in America. It seems like a LOT of this activity is bots, looking at the tweets themselves and their likes and retweets.

The Hamilton 68 Russian bot-tracker shows how these hashtags exploded overnight. #releasethememo is #1 with a bullet on its charts, with almost 2,000 hits (the number two is #maga with slightly more than 200), as well as the top trending hashtag, with an increase of over 160000% in the past 48 hours. The other trending topics are practically nothing but the memo—e.g. #memo, #FISA, #Gaetz*, #Watergate, #FISAmemo, #Memo, #Abuse. The Kremlin bots are going all out on this one.

Waking up to this nonsense daily is just part of the Trump era, but I really should have coffee first...

* This is Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), notable for having previously crowd-sourced an anti-Clinton/anti-Comey resolution with the help of /r/The_Donald.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:11 AM on January 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


A Year of Donald Trump in the White House (Adam Gopnik | The New Yorker)
Living as we do, on what is—as hard as it may be to believe—the first anniversary of Trump in power, we find ourselves caught in a quarrel between Trump optimists and Trump pessimists, and one proof of how right the Trump pessimists have been is that the kind of thing that the Trump optimists are now saying ought to make you optimistic. Basically, their argument amounts to the claim that the stock market remains up, the government isn’t suspended, and the President’s critics aren’t in internment camps. In the pages of The Economist, as in the columns of the Times, one frequently reads some form of this not-very-calming reassurance: Trump may be an enemy of republican government, and a friend to tyrants, while alienating our oldest friends in fellow-democracies, but while he may want to be a tyrant, he isn’t very good at being one. This is the Ralph Kramden account of Trumpism: he blusters and threatens and shakes and rages, but Alice, like the American people, just stands there and shrugs him off sardonically.

Those in the Trump-pessimist camp are inclined to point out not only that the final score is not in yet but that the game has only just started. In real life, as opposed to fifties sitcoms, the Ralph Kramdens tend to act on their instincts. Trump’s Justice Department has already reopened an investigation of his political opponent, after he loudly demanded it—itself a chilling abuse of power. And if, as seems probable, Trump tries to fire Robert Mueller, the special counsel on the Russia investigation, we will be in the midst of a crisis of extreme dimensions. ...

The point is not that what Obama did was necessarily always admirable, but that amnesia about even the very recent past has become essential to the most decent conservative politics; only by making the national emergency general and cross-party can it be fully shared rather than, as it should be, localized to the crisis of one party and its ideology. In plain English, it becomes necessary to spread the smell around so that everyone gets some of the stink on them. This is why we have to read so much undue hand-wringing about our national crisis in civic values and family piety rather than recognize the abandonment of republican values that began when the mainstays of the conservative party decided to embrace Trump instead of—as their French equivalents had done, when confronted with the same choice between an authoritarian nationalist and a moderate centrist —reject him. It is always appealing rhetorically to insist that all of us are at fault. We’re not. The attempts to pretend that the Trump era is part of some national, or even planetary, crisis, stretching out from one end of the political spectrum to the other, obscures the more potent reality. Had Mitt Romney and the Bushes not merely protested, or grumbled in private, about Trump but openly endorsed Hillary Clinton as the necessary alternative to the unacceptable, we might be living in a different country. For that matter, if, during the past year, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell had summoned patriotism in the face of multiple threats to the norms of democratic conduct, then we might not be in this mess. They didn’t, and we are.

... Meanwhile, our primary obligation may be simply not to blind ourselves to the facts, or to compromise our values in a desperate desire to embrace our fellow-citizens. Any anti-Trumpist movement must consist of the broadest imaginable coalition, but it cannot pretend that what we are having is a normal national debate. The reason people object, for instance, to the Times running a full page of Trump-defending letters is not that they want to cut off or stifle that debate; it is because the implication that Trumpism is a controversial but acceptable expression of American values within that debate is in itself a betrayal of those values. Liberal democracy is good. Authoritarian nationalism is bad. That’s the premise of the country. It’s the principle that a lot of people died for. Americans never need to apologize for the continuing absolutism of their belief in it.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:14 AM on January 19, 2018 [61 favorites]


Agency shutdown contingency plans, last updated December 2017.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


We have not had any guidance at all from Department leadership about shutdown plans in my agency. Not a single e-mail.
posted by wintermind at 4:49 AM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


The U.S. government spent $666 billion more than it brought in through revenue last year

Oh come ON.
posted by petebest at 4:55 AM on January 19, 2018 [74 favorites]


We have not had any guidance at all from Department leadership about shutdown plans in my agency.

We haven't either. Not expecting any until late this afternoon, and then Monday morning we'll all be called in for 4 hours of "wrap up activities" and to secure our government issued laptops in the office. Or that's how it happened last time. Our agency plan was updated in 2017 at least, and I'm listed as nonexempt, at least for 5 days, at which point they'll "reevaluate". What changes in 5 days as far as the legal basis for declaring us exempt or not, I have no idea. But that's what it says.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:08 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Turnover In Trump's White House Is 'Record-Setting,' And It Isn't Even Close:
If President Trump's first year in office seemed chaotic from a staffing perspective, there's a reason. Turnover among top-level staff in the Trump White House was off the charts, according to a new Brookings Institution report.

Turnover in Trump's first year was more than triple that in former President Barack Obama's first year, and double the rate in President Ronald Reagan's White House. A full 34 percent of high-level White House aides either resigned, were fired or moved into different positions in this first year of the Trump presidency.
posted by octothorpe at 5:09 AM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


A tiny swipe of Occam's Razor.

Either:

1) The MemoGuffin is real. It is the Rosetta Stone that proves the Grand Unified Clinton Conspiracy. It is solid evidence that Hillary Clinton sighed as she drew her katana, the one made of purest Whitewater that fires polonium bullets and killed Vince Foster and Marc Rich, and placed it gently in the outstretched hands of Peter Strzok with a whisper of "Rid me of this troublesome Trump campaign in the name of our leader, Vladimir Putin." And so it came to pass that Strzok and McCabe and Comey and the Ohrs and Rosenstein and Hillary and Obama and Mueller and Sid Blumenthal and Jake Tapper and Stephen Colbert and Jon "The Secret Jew" Stewart and Loretta Lynch and Eric Holder and many others all engaged in a deep dark conspiracy to smuggle uranium out of the country in the bodies of child prostitutes disguised as pepperoni pizzas to avoid detection, and to overthrow President Trump by any means necessary up to and including salacious lies about a Pee Tape.

But the MemoGuffin is real and is hard, solid evidence proving all of the above. We Can't Show You The Evidence because it's Top Secret but it's real, folks, and Congress is fully aware of its contents, which we know because Sean Hannity's pet Congressmen Gaetz and DeSantis and Jordan are hopping up and down with the excitement of six-year-olds about to dive on their pile of Christmas presents. The MemoGuffin ties it all together and will be the keystone of the case that will Lock Her Up and everyone even remotely affiliated with Crooked Her.

But for some reason, the only people talking about this, the culmination of decades of Get The Clintons investigations and detective work, are Sean Hannity and his pet Congressmen. The rest of the Fox Get The Clintons Network, the rest of Congress, the rest of the media (both Mainstream and Wingnut), the man who campaigned on Locking Her Up, they seem oddly unconcerned about this instead of yelling NEVER MIND THAT SHIT, HERE COMES MONGO! and blanketing the airwaves with the Biggest Story In Human History Much Worse Than Watergate 24/7 and demanding answers and handcuffs.

Which proves that the DEEP STATE is in full control of The Swamp but the True Believers will overcome it Any Day Now if you just send your money.

2) Or...
posted by delfin at 5:25 AM on January 19, 2018 [72 favorites]


I love that the Republicans are obsessed with contesting a year old election that they won.
posted by octothorpe at 5:27 AM on January 19, 2018 [136 favorites]


That Gopkin piece is one of the few of its kind (that comes to my mind, so I may be off) that specifically calls out Republicans, their leadership, and their voters as the problem.

"The attempts to pretend that the Trump era is part of some national, or even planetary, crisis, stretching out from one end of the political spectrum to the other, obscures the more potent reality. Had Mitt Romney and the Bushes not merely protested, or grumbled in private, about Trump but openly endorsed Hillary Clinton as the necessary alternative to the unacceptable, we might be living in a different country. For that matter, if, during the past year, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell had summoned patriotism in the face of multiple threats to the norms of democratic conduct, then we might not be in this mess. They didn’t, and we are."

I'd like to hear that from the media, over and over again. What we are experiencing is not a failure of a particularly weak leadership in the GOP, but the culmination of all their values cultivated over the last 70 years. Even if it doesn't sway voters, or change Trump's base I want to read that every single day.
posted by Tevin at 5:27 AM on January 19, 2018 [79 favorites]


The Kremlin bots are going all out on this one.

Watching Fox News and Republican legislators amplify a Russian propaganda operation is profoundly disturbing.
posted by diogenes at 5:30 AM on January 19, 2018 [88 favorites]


Serious Conservative And Tenured Law Professor Glenn Reynolds is on the case of #memogate

(That's a UT law professor who somehow still has a state funded job to RT Sean Hannity all day, falling for an obvious parody account, purporting to be a US Representative)
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:33 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


I mean, sure, if there's a memo based on reality, release it. Why wouldn't we want to know if Obama had his thumb on the scale?

Oh right, it's because Trumpists actually don't want to know if their god-emperor colluded with a foreign power to steal the US presidency.

Also because it's fake and whipping conspiracy theories up is easier than governing.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:36 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Sean Hannity's pet Congressmen Gaetz and DeSantis

Two of Florida's finest. Trump recently endorsed DeSantis for Florida governor and Gaetz was garbage before garbage was cool. Once again, embarrassing to be a Floridian.
posted by photoslob at 5:38 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


I mean, seriously. Hannity did yesterday what he does every day on his radio show, which is to read off a series of flipcards with names and conspiracy points on them (Strzok is connected to everything! Hillary exonerated before she was even investigated! Dossier of salacious lies! This will Shock the Conscience of the Nation!) and cue his guests to agree with him. So this time he has actual confirmation that it's all true, that it's solid proof that Hillary & Co. are all guilty, and that once it's declassified this MemoGuffin will bring the entire Democrat Party down. This is the single most important and serious thing ever discussed in the history of the English language.

But we'll talk more about that later. Tune into my TV show for more. First, before we talk about the Trump Fake News Awards for an hour, here's a live commercial read for LifeLock!

Yeah. Pull the other one.
posted by delfin at 5:48 AM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Omarosa may have secretly taped White House conversations: report
Former Trump staffer Omarosa Manigault Newman might have secretly recorded private conversations in the White House as she feared special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe, The New York Daily News reported Friday.

Sources told the Daily News that Manigault Newman, who was abruptly fired from the White House late last year, “loves” to record meetings.

“Everyone knows Omarosa loves to record people and meetings using the voice notes app on her iPhone,” one source said. “Don’t be surprised if she has secret audio files on everyone in that White House, past and present staffers included.”

The White House’s recent ban on staffers having their personal cell phones was tied to Manigault-Newman’s habit of recording her conversations, the source told the Daily News.

Manigault Newman is also reportedly seeking meetings with lawyers as she is concerned that she will become part of Mueller’s probe into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.
What a timeline we live in.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:54 AM on January 19, 2018 [76 favorites]


What are the Vegas odds of that phone being compromised?
posted by PenDevil at 6:01 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


What a timeline we live in.

I mean, you can't get more hack reality TV writing than that. If you made a movie with this shitbagel as the premise, and the big reveal was that the asshole reality TV protege who does nothing that anyone could ever discern had been secretly taping conversations and handed the recordings over to burn her mentor to save her own ass, the critics would feed you your damn lunch over that..

I'm filled with near-daily rage at how horrible these people are. But then I reflect that they can't even be evil with any sense of style or originality. It's like if the actual phrase "banality of evil" got its wish granted by a magic cricket and became a real boy.
posted by middleclasstool at 6:25 AM on January 19, 2018 [50 favorites]


Watching Fox News and Republican legislators amplify a Russian propaganda operation is profoundly disturbing.

It's been a long and crazy two-and-a-half years. Der Klownwig announced his run in June of 2015.

I've got my trunk all packed. I've had it packed for a week, now
posted by petebest at 6:35 AM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I'm filled with near-daily rage at how horrible these people are

ok yes but then I imagine, like, the Russian ambassador getting news reports on whatever catastrofuck these clowns have bumbled into next, maybe a whole dossier on the next impending disaster resulting from behavior so randomized and stupid that it’s literally impossible to predict, maybe just the Washington post, whatever

Just every morning, reading his briefing, doing the Stan Marsh nose pinch until he looks upward and mutters, “why?”

And then I laugh
posted by schadenfrau at 6:37 AM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Like imagine having a sophisticated espionage Cold War plan, while at the pinnacle of your considerable skills and experience from years of being one of the most coldly competent people in the world, and then to execute that plan you have to work with Donald Trump

That is comic genius
posted by schadenfrau at 6:39 AM on January 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


Trump isn't heading to Mar-a-Lago until there's a deal, so now we just have to wait for him to get irritated and impatient and agree to sign anything.
posted by chris24 at 6:45 AM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


He's already agreed to sign anything (well, before he raged out about shitholes), and I'm pretty sure he would actually sign whatever Congress sent him, mainly because he won't (and can't) actually read or understand it anyway, but also because in reality he's a weak and scared negotiator. He's not going to veto any deal. Whatever hits his desk he's going to sign and praise as the Best Deal Only He, The Greatest President Ever, could've got done. The real problem is Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell don't want to cut any immigration deal with Democrats, despite what they've said before and what they're pretending now. They're terrified of the Freedom Caucus and FOX News, and Ryan remembers what happened to John Boehner for passing spending deals using Democratic votes. Until that dynamic changes, it doesn't really matter what Trump is saying.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:50 AM on January 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


AFAIK the conspiracy theory is that Obama abused the FISA warrant to help Hillary win the election.

Oh yes. The classic "put a FISA warrant on a treasonous bastard and then not tell anybody to not take political advantage of it".

It's like how Democrats got millions of illegal immigrants to vote in California to apparently run up the score?
posted by Talez at 7:05 AM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


If Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell would rather be day drinking with Boehner than wrangling the Freedom Caucus and the current disfunctional clown in the White House they have plenty of options to quit.

In fact, I encourage them to quit and go mow some lawns with a pitcher of gin.
posted by lydhre at 7:07 AM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


The CFPB is now a tool for the payday lender industry.

This country is disgusting.
posted by Talez at 7:15 AM on January 19, 2018 [71 favorites]


My husband is very political but usually sticks to Intellectual Anarchist Internet where the talk isn't so much about cloture votes and deal-making as it is about punching Nazis and the death of the state, and he is just spluttering incoherence right now trying to figure out wtf is going on in Congress (why do they need 60 votes? is this a thing? since when has this been a thing?) and why the news media seems to already be laying a shutdown at the Democrats' feet. Sweet summer child.

If Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell would rather be day drinking with Boehner than wrangling the Freedom Caucus and the current disfunctional clown in the White House they have plenty of options to quit.

Seriously. All of these people seem to hate their jobs. Every time they show up in public they are wearing these rictus grins that just scream abject misery. There is a way out, my friends! Google up one of the many letters of resignation submitted by your colleagues over the past 6 months and do a find-and-replace! You're not a hostage! You can leave any time! (Please leave, right now.)

[And speaking of find-and-replace is anyone else listening to the Watergate podcast from Slate? The degree to which Trump-Russia really is Stupid Watergate is astounding to me. I thought it was a pretty apt description before I learned more about Watergate but the more I learn the more I realize it's 100% true.]
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:15 AM on January 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


So Republicans are strongly advising Trump to veto the 702 reauth bill they just passed, yes? Because if you're genuinely worried about abusive surveillance the first thing you do is shut off the surveillance. Right?
posted by scalefree at 7:17 AM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


but then I imagine, like, the Russian ambassador getting news reports on whatever catastrofuck these clowns have bumbled into next, maybe a whole dossier on the next impending disaster resulting from behavior so randomized and stupid that it’s literally impossible to predict

Don't feel too much schadenfreude; the Russians are quite happy with its once-mighty hegemonic superpower falling about itself like a drunkard in the gutter. Much in the way that they really don't mind if, when the EU breaks up into a collection of warlike ethno-nationalist autocracies, the autocracies are rabidly anti-Russian. The hegemony of liberalism will have been vanquished, and a bunch of bumbling Keystone Stormtroopers will, in the worst case, give Putin a new Great Patriotic War to rally his economically straitened nation behind.
posted by acb at 7:22 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Well, unsurprisingly, /r/t_d has become wall to wall #releasethememo.
posted by Talez at 7:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


NPR yesterday with the set-up: Trump Voters In Pennsylvania Say They Are Pleased With Presidency So Far -- Trump supporters still support Trump! Whoda thunk? Those interviewed include some happy comments on the return of coal to Pennsylvania.

And the punchline: What's Really The Biggest Threat To The Coal Industry -- it's cheap Natural Gas thanks to fracking (which is also big in Pennsylvania - web map, might choke mobile devices).

And then there's the follow-up in that interview of Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at MIT, by Stacey Vanek Smith for NPR:
KNITTEL: Well, I think what the current administration doesn't realize this is the actual war on coal has come from cheap natural gas.

VANEK SMITH: In the year 2016, for the first time ever, natural gas became the main source of energy in the U.S. all because of fracking. And coal went from providing about half the energy in the U.S. to around 30 percent and falling. So last September, Trump's Energy secretary, Rick Perry, came up with a new plan. Perry said, we have to make sure our energy supply is resilient, make sure if there's some kind of crazy cold snap or some emergency and we suddenly need a lot of power we've got a reserve.

KNITTEL: So it would have provided a subsidy for any power plant that had 90 days of fuel onsite.

VANEK SMITH: This subsidy, billions of dollars a year, would have been paid by people who use power, by us. But here's the thing - power plants that burn natural gas don't really store much gas onsite. You know who does store lots of fuel onsite? Coal plants. Also, by the way, nuclear plants.

KNITTEL: I have to give it to Secretary Perry. It was quite a creative policy to target coal and nuclear plants.

VANEK SMITH: Secretary Perry's plan had to be approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. There are five commissioners, and four of them, including the chairman, were appointed by President Trump. The commission ruled on the plan last week, and all of the commissioners voted against it. (NYT) Knittel says this is because the way to get energy supply resilience is not by stockpiling coal. Moreover, creating new subsidies for coal and nuclear power plants would mess up the market for electric power. And that is the market the U.S. has spent decades trying to create to encourage companies to figure out cheaper, more efficient ways of getting power to people. And, says Knittel, that market is working.

KNITTEL: Cheap natural gas isn't going away. And it's not that coal's getting more expensive. It's that alternatives to coal are getting cheaper. And that's going to continue to happen.
The NYT article includes this additional detail: "Opponents of Mr. Perry’s proposal also pointed out that blackouts usually occurred because of problems with transmission lines — not because power plants had insufficient fuel on site." The funny thing is that Rick Perry supported wind power in Texas ... by supporting thousands of miles of new transmission lines (paid for by an increasing bill to energy users). Seems like he's just another Trump lapdog at this point, and we can end those hopes of Texas-style energy generation diversity coming to the US as a whole.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:25 AM on January 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


Snowden has probably the best (and the clearest) take on the MemoGuffin so far.
Officials confirm there's a secret report showing abuses of spy law Congress voted to reauthorize this week. If this memo had been known prior to the vote, FISA reauth would have failed. These abuses must be made public, and @realDonaldTrump should send the bill back with a veto. <

HPSCI reports have been false before, but all we know now is that many in Congress are making serious allegations it documents abuses of surveillance law--something we all know happened routinely under Bush and Obama (almost certainly Trump as well). We need to know if it's BS. <

[...] when the chairman of House Intel (HPSCI) claims there's documented evidence of serious surveillance abuses, it matters. If true, the citizens must see the proof. If false, it establishes HPSCI lies and has no credibility. Either outcome benefits the public. <
posted by creampuff at 7:29 AM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


I think the saddest thing I've seen today is that the Trump administration is trying to keep national parks and monuments on the Nation Mall open, Trump officials weigh keeping national parks open even if government shuts down (WaPo). They are responding, I guess, to their own stunt protest to their 2013 shutdown in an attempt to do a better job at shutting down the government than Obama. Way to focus on the important things.
posted by peeedro at 7:31 AM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Re the Simpson testimony and from a Seth Abramson twitter stream
19/. While Fusion was being paid by the Free Beacon, Trump brought Paul Manafort on board his campaign—and Simpson had already done a lot of research on Manafort and his ties to Russia, so alarm bells went off for Fusion. In March 2016. While they were being paid by conservatives.
30/. Simpson makes a great point that media should regularly make: by the mid-2000s Trump was a self-professed billionaire who wasn't creditworthy—he couldn't get a bank loan. So where was all the cash coming from? Don Jr. says Russia; Eric Trump says Russia. Why not believe them?
31/. This is a crazy statement by a Republican—Rooney. It's crazy because in fact Trump's frauds and shady associations and adulteries and public lies and racism were ALL KNOWN prior to the election and not ONE of these House Republicans came out and said this man can't be POTUS.
posted by adamvasco at 7:31 AM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


They are profoundly unwell people, and it ought to be terrifying.

Word on that. I've heard several accounts of what it's actually like to be a Freshman congressperson and it sounds fucking miserable. I suspect it gets less miserable as you gain status and staffers, but there's only two reasons anyone would go through that first term: they have a deep, profound commitment to public service or they crave power and prestige.

Those with the latter motivation need to be weeded out somehow, but I suspect the system actually works in reverse. The earnest do-gooders get ground down, the cynical self-servers are motivated to put in the time, assured that the pay-off will be worth it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:33 AM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


Speaking of Wind vs Coal: Wind with batteries? Build it quickly and it could cost $21/MWh in Colorado -- New generation would add to current capacity and could also replace some coal. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Jan. 19, 2018)
Proposals for renewable electricity generation in Colorado are coming in cheap, like, $21/MWh-cheap for wind and battery storage. Though there are a few caveats to those numbers, federal incentives and quickly falling costs are combining to make once-quirky renewable projects into major contenders in an industry where fossil fuels have comfortably dominated since the 19th century.

Early last year, Colorado energy provider Xcel Energy requested proposals for new electricity generation. Specifically, the company needed 450 megawatts of additional generation to meet future demand. In a separate request called the Colorado Energy Plan, Xcel said (PDF) it would consider replacing two coal plants providing 660MW of capacity with "hundreds of megawatts of new wind and solar as well as some natural gas-fired resources" if new resources could be found cheaper than what those coal plants cost to operate (including costs to shut down the plants early).

By late November, energy companies had submitted their best offers. Although exact details of the offers aren’t available yet, Xcel Colorado was required to make public a summary of the proposals (PDF) in the month after the bids were submitted.
Further Reading:
Solar now costs 6¢ per kilowatt-hour, beating government goal by 3 years (Sept. 13, 2017)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:36 AM on January 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


Very bad news for democracy:

Supreme Court says North Carolina does not have to immediately redraw congressional maps that a lower court ruled unconstitutional [WaPo]

Thanks to the Supreme Court it is very likely that this year's election will take place with North Carolina's unconstitutional gerrymandering in place.
posted by Emmy Rae at 8:07 AM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


@Susan_Hennessey (Lawfare, Brookings Fellow)
It appears to be some loose collection of Nunes's individual unfounded allegations related to unmasking, not clearly even endorsed by his fellow Republicans, now being seized on by opportunists looking for a Hail Mary to try to tank the 702 bill before Trump signs it.
- I have no clue what game Nunes is playing at but this has nothing to do with 702. Furthermore, no one is "releasing" anything without a executive branch classification review. Even for four pages, that's a multi-week endeavor.
- My prediction is that after causing completely unnecessary chaos today, this memo will be released in some redacted form in a few weeks and prove to be an utter embarrassment to Nunes personally, the HPSCI majority, and frankly to US House of Representatives.

@NatashaBertrand (Business Insider)
Retweeted Susan Hennessey
Source with knowledge tells me the Nunes memo is "a level of irresponsible stupidity that I cannot fathom. Purposefully misconstrues facts and leaves out important details."

@matthewamiller (MSNBC)
Replying to @NatashaBertrand
I think your source isn't telling the truth. If they've worked with Nunes for long, they can fathom any level of irresponsible stupidity.
posted by chris24 at 8:11 AM on January 19, 2018 [118 favorites]


Source with knowledge tells me the Nunes memo is "a level of irresponsible stupidity that I cannot fathom. Purposefully misconstrues facts and leaves out important details."

I'm way past thinking Nunes is only stupid or irresponsible. He's complicit, compromised, and impeding the Russia investigation like his life depends on it.
posted by diogenes at 8:28 AM on January 19, 2018 [68 favorites]


Echoing creampuff's Snowden quotes above, I don't have a hard time believing that there were surveillance excesses during the Obama years, just as with under Shrub or any other President. I know that the EFF and ACLU have been howling about them for decades.

If the MemoGuffin is simply Nunes cherry-picking bits that support his conclusions, I suspect that there may be some bits there for him to find -- just not ones that support the assumptions the conclusions are based on (i.e. Trump is clean, Hillary is a Russian puppet, the Dossier is all lies and collusion, the Deep State is attempting a coup). If you take those assumptions on faith, it all makes sense and I would like to ask if you've ever thought of the advantages of owning your own Brooklyn Bridge.
posted by delfin at 8:31 AM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Snowden is right though, if Trump is serious about the memo he would veto the 702 extension.
posted by PenDevil at 8:35 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Regarding WaPo highlighting the Democrats as the shutdown looms:

Yes, D's are getting the press about taking a stand and not backing down. Are we going to bitch about Ds getting the blame in the press--when no matter how you slice it, the R's are still in power in both houses of Congress and the WH. Bottom line is, just as we've seen throughout the year, they can't actually get anything done?

If the headline were just about Republican incompetence and inability to govern (and as I recall, they're getting that press too), and didn't have mention of D's standing firm, would we be bitching about D's resolve not getting reported at all?

Choose your frame, folks. Only you can stop the circular firing squad.
posted by Sublimity at 8:36 AM on January 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


I guess I still don't understand: why NOT take the +6 years to CHIP and a temp resolution, and then get to have the same fight over DACA in February. Is there a deadline I'm not seeing? I get the urge to go for a big win, but this seems like free points on the board.
posted by Wulfhere at 8:55 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Devin Nunes is the human embodiment of the "I have no idea what I'm doing" dog.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:57 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


The Guardian is not normalizing Trump
posted by mumimor at 9:03 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


I guess I still don't understand: why NOT take the +6 years to CHIP and a temp resolution, and then get to have the same fight over DACA in February. Is there a deadline I'm not seeing? I get the urge to go for a big win, but this seems like free points on the board.

The cynical answer is because the left will beat the center over the head with it if the centrists agree to the CR.

The probable answer is that attaching DACA to a CR will never happen and the Democrats know it. Ryan will not let a CR hit the floor which he needs Democratic votes to pass otherwise he risks being boehned. To attach DACA to a CR would require Democratic votes in the house to pass. The House Freedom Caucus would immediately call for Ryan's head and shit would hit the fan. Ryan will not let a CR with DACA hit the floor EVER.

Sadly, the House Freedom Caucus called the Democrats' bluff but Flake is a giant spanner in the Senate works for Republicans. Schumer called for cloture last night because he knows McConnell has <50 R votes for the CR and he wants to raise where the Republicans called.
posted by Talez at 9:06 AM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


I get the urge to go for a big win, but this seems like free points on the board.

Mid-terms are shaping up now.
If CHIP doesn't get funded, Republicans will own that entirely. They'll never be able to effectively spin "we wanted children to have insurance but Democrats wouldn't give us X," because we're talking about children. The only people who would buy that shit are the people who will always buy everything Republicans say; they can't win on the margins with that, and they're facing a wave.

Conversely, if Democrats don't fight tooth and nail on DACA they risk losing enthusiasm and support from basically anyone who actually cares about immigrants. Dropping the ball on DACA is a sure way to diminish their own hopefully-impending wave. That means fighting now. They want to get this done, they want Republicans to walk into 2018 with as many bruises on their face as possible, and every time they delay this fight for another day they risk having the rug pulled out from under them by the next astounding Republican stupidity to turn up.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:08 AM on January 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


Is there a deadline I'm not seeing? I get the urge to go for a big win, but this seems like free points on the board.

122 DACA recipients lose their status every day.
posted by chris24 at 9:09 AM on January 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


Newsweek: Trump is terrified of sharks and hopes they all die, Stormy Daniels claims

A bizarre trait of right-wing authoritarians is a deep fear of supposedly dangerous animals. This is particularly visible in the rural West, where opposition to wolf reintroduction and conservation is pretty strong and entrenched. It's not just that the generally conservative ranching and hunting (not to mention logging) communities don't want the competition from predators, although their organizations do provide much of the anti-wildlife funding: I've observed a number of conservatives out here who are genuinely, personally scared of wolves and bears and believe that any day now the packs will start coming out of the woods to steal children.

Many believe that introducing them is part of the UN's plan to make rural America too dangerous for Real Americans, but I think that their fear of predators is deeper than just a need to align themselves with the conspiracy du jour: I think this is some hard-wired neurological stuff, along the same lines as the increased disgust response and psychological emphasis on cleanliness and purity that has been clinically demonstrated in right-leaning people. Their little world will always be surrounded by the deep, dark forest, full of all kinds of nasty and dangerous creatures wearing human and animal skins.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:13 AM on January 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


BREAKING: More blame Republicans than Democrats for potential government shutdown, Post-ABC poll finds (WaPo)
By a 20-point margin, more Americans blame President Trump and Republicans rather than Democrats for a potential government shutdown, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

A 48 percent plurality says Trump and congressional Republicans are mainly responsible for the situation resulting from disagreements over immigration laws and border security, while 28 percent fault Democrats. A sizable 18 percent volunteer that both parties are equally responsible. Political independents drive the lopsided margin of blame, saying by 46 to 25 percent margin that Republicans and Trump are responsible for the situation.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:13 AM on January 19, 2018 [26 favorites]


Newsweek: Trump is terrified of sharks and hopes they all die, Stormy Daniels claims

If there was ever a time for SNL to bring back the Land Shark sketch...
posted by mikepop at 9:17 AM on January 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


A bizarre trait of right-wing authoritarians is a deep fear of supposedly dangerous animals

to be fair, maybe it's mutual, since apparently predators don't care for authoritarians, either
posted by halation at 9:20 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


From the Guardian article: Donald Trump's first year: in his own words
posted by kirkaracha at 9:22 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I think this is some hard-wired neurological stuff

See also: the people who are most scared of immigrants stealing their jobs are also the people who live in areas that have fewest immigrants. See also also: the people who are most scared of Muslim terrorists are in the places where that has 0% chance of happening. No one is bombing the Fort Wayne Wal-Mart, but ask conservatives in Indiana what they're most afraid of and I guarantee you terrorists are on the list.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [49 favorites]


The Mooch was on the BBC Hardtalk show last night. It appears he wants his job back as he brownnosed 45 in the extreme. 45's language? Hey, he grew up on the streets of New York. Tweets? Ah, just a joke. Sarcasm. Kind of funny in schadenfreude sort of way. What a wanker...
posted by njohnson23 at 9:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


House transcript shows how Fusion works, how Steele works and that Trump is a crook.

MR. SIMPSON: As we pieced together the early years of his biography, it seemed as if during the early part of his career he had connections to a lot of Italian mafia figures, and then gradually during the nineties became associated with Russian mafia figures.

Full house transcript (also linked above).
posted by anya32 at 9:25 AM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


Lee Fang, Intercept: GOP candidate for Pennsylvania special election is a former Abu Ghraig interrogation consultant.

Rick Saccone is proud of his record as a professional torturer. He's a monster.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:32 AM on January 19, 2018 [39 favorites]


Rick Saccone is proud of his record as a professional torturer. The content of the article is worse than you think. He's a monster.

If you think that's going to hurt his chances, then you haven't spent much time in rural Pennsylvania.
posted by octothorpe at 9:38 AM on January 19, 2018 [21 favorites]


I'm imagining a reverse Buridan's ass situation where Trump is in water surrounded by sharks, but can only escape by climbing a set of stairs.

No - he can only escape by genuinely apologizing for one thing he's ever done wrong during his presidency, no matter how minor.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 9:40 AM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


Buridan's Ass
Buridan's ass is an illustration of a paradox in philosophy in the conception of free will. It refers to a hypothetical situation wherein a donkey that is equally hungry and thirsty is placed precisely midway between a stack of hay and a pail of water. Since the paradox assumes the ass will always go to whichever is closer, it dies of both hunger and thirst since it cannot make any rational decision between the hay and water.[1] A common variant of the paradox substitutes two identical piles of hay for the hay and water; the ass, unable to choose between the two, dies of hunger.

The paradox is named after the 14th century French philosopher Jean Buridan, whose philosophy of moral determinism it satirizes. Although the illustration is named after Buridan, philosophers have discussed the concept before him, notably Aristotle who used the example of a man equally hungry and thirsty,[2] and Al-Ghazali who used a man faced with the choice of equally good dates.
Thanks to @leotrotsky, I something new today!
posted by notyou at 9:43 AM on January 19, 2018 [21 favorites]


Carlos Lozada, WaPo, reviews four books about 45's first year: American democracy is on a break. Welcome to ‘Trumpocracy.’
TRUMPOCRACY: The Corruption of the American Republic
By David Frum. Harper. 304 pp. $25.99

IT’S EVEN WORSE THAN YOU THINK: What the Trump Administration Is Doing to America
By David Cay Johnston. Simon & Schuster. 320 pp. $30

TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR
By Michael Nelson. University of Virginia. 220 pp. $19.95

HOW DEMOCRACIES DIE
By Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. Crown. 312 pp. $26

Once the fire burns out and the fury subsides, what will chroniclers of our era make of this frenetic first year of America Under Trump?
TL;DR: "Send lawyers, guns and money. The shit has hit the fan."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:44 AM on January 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


Trump called Schumer and invited him to WH to talk deal. He's heading there now. McConnell and Ryan not going/invited.

Rs are unhappy.

@JakeSherman (Politico)
There is very serious concern rippling through the House Republican Conference that they are about to get hosed by the president and Chuck Schumer.
posted by chris24 at 9:53 AM on January 19, 2018 [61 favorites]


Trump called Schumer and invited him to WH to talk deal. He's heading there now. McConnell and Ryan not going/invited.

Quick, someone text Stephen Miller that the surf's up at Ocean City! Or something! What do C+ Santa Monica Fascists like?
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:55 AM on January 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


I get the urge to go for a big win, but this seems like free points on the board.

By March, not only will DACA expire, but so will the debt ceiling. Democrats will have NO leverage on the debt ceiling. If they are going to use a budget battle on DACA, this is the only chance now that they already punted this fight three times. And if not, they might as well give up on the midterm now, because breaking their promise to the DACA advocates will decimate enthusiasm.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:55 AM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]




Mod note: A few comments removed; if y'all actually want to have a lengthy conversation about Buridan's Ass or other philosophical paradoxes and thought experiments, someone put together a nice post about it and go nuts free from the specter of Trump. In the mean time, let's keep this thread free from the specter of philosophical noodling.
posted by cortex (staff) at 10:06 AM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


House transcript shows how Fusion works, how Steele works and that Trump is a crook.

MR. SIMPSON: As we pieced together the early years of his biography, it seemed as if during the early part of his career he had connections to a lot of Italian mafia figures, and then gradually during the nineties became associated with Russian mafia figures.

Full house transcript (also linked above).
posted by anya32 at 9:25 AM on January 19 [9 favorites +] [!]


This is the reason for the #releasethememo bot attack. It's an attempt at counterprogramming to stifle this information in the public's mind.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:08 AM on January 19, 2018 [27 favorites]


Um. From Trump's anti-abortion march speech (video):
Right now, in a number of states, the laws allow a baby to be born from his or her mother’s womb in the ninth month. It is wrong. It has to change
I...I'm pretty sure that it would be rather bad policy to change the law to disallow babies to be born during the ninth month.
posted by zachlipton at 10:14 AM on January 19, 2018 [87 favorites]



Trump called Schumer and invited him to WH to talk deal. He's heading there now. McConnell and Ryan not going/invited.

Didn't it go badly for the Republicans last time Schumer got Trump alone? I wouldn't be surprised if Schumer knows how to lay it on thick and do the "fellow New Yorkers we're in this together" song and dance that Donny Two Scoops eats up. Maybe I'm optimistic, but Trump and Co. are hardly chessmasters.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 10:18 AM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


I don't know how he flubbed that. They even kept it down to two syllable word-things for him.
posted by rc3spencer at 10:19 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Kremlin bots are going all out on this one.

Watching Fox News and Republican legislators amplify a Russian propaganda operation is profoundly disturbing.


I've said it before, but I can remember a time (documented, among other things, in the recent Vietnam documentary) when Republicans routinely accused Democrats of being dupes of Moscow.
posted by Gelatin at 10:21 AM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


I'm pretty sure the word was supposed to be "torn" rather than "born".
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:21 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Greg Sargent, This disaster is the handiwork of Donald Trump
I’m told that in a series of meetings between Democratic and GOP leaders and Trump administration officials, Democrats repeatedly pressed their counterparts to make a counter-offer, after Trump rejected the bipartisan deal reached recently that would legalize the dreamers in exchange for some concessions. They have gotten nothing serious in response, I’m told.
Mark Meadows is running around claiming Trump promised him he wouldn't support any immigration deal unless Meadows and Tom Cotton backed it. There is no chance of any deal Tom Cotton ciould support passing the Senate.

Hilariously, the White House is already trying to insist the meeting is meaningless:
The White House is already reassuring allies on Hill that Trump merely wants to hear Schumer out — and that no deals will be cut during this confab, I’m told. Rs were privately starting to get nervous
Sounds like they're nervous.
posted by zachlipton at 10:28 AM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


MetaFilter: free from the specter of philosophical noodling
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:29 AM on January 19, 2018 [21 favorites]


Huh, I thought they were using the Up-Goer Five text editor for his speeches, but "born" is not a permitted word.
posted by AFABulous at 10:29 AM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'm pretty sure the word was supposed to be "torn" rather than "born".
posted by Jpfed at 10:21 AM on January 19 [+] [!]


When he's reading aloud, I often get the sense that Trump isn't really understanding what he's reading in real time. His emphasis and diction often disconnect with the meaning of what he's repeating. This error is evidence that he isn't, because that mistake has to be the result of him not tracking and just reading the words one at a time.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:30 AM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


I'm pretty sure the word was supposed to be "torn" rather than "born".

I, I'd :: shithole, shithouse :: born, torn. It's only fake news when we hear what he says rather than guess what he means.
posted by notyou at 10:30 AM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Trump isn't really understanding what he's reading in real time.

Frequently you can hear him get to the end of a line on the teleprompter and stop there, then begin the next line as if it's a new sentence.
posted by EarBucket at 10:36 AM on January 19, 2018 [35 favorites]


This might be a little close to philosophical noodling, but can anyone point me to resources discussing the game theory of the CR negotiations? I suppose a shutdown is complicated by the possibility of playing the blame game after the fact, and by the way a shutdown could fit in with "starve the beast" concepts* but I would have assumed that at some point everyone involved has a BATNA that isn't a shutdown*? Is it a diffusion of responsibility thing, where MoCs don't have to own something 534 other people were involved in? Or am I just horribly naive in assuming that a no one exists who thinks a DACA agreement is worse than shutting down the federal government?

If that is the case, resources on those people who would prefer a shutdown over an agreement (any agreement?) would be interesting as well. But mostly I'm stuck on this idea that at some point, everyone would have to give a little.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:44 AM on January 19, 2018


Mulvaney, who won the stand-off to head the CFPB, has requested $0.00 for its funding.


Just today I received in the mail a check from one of the big three credit reporting agencies. It seems they got harassed by the CFPB over a scheme they had running at some point in the last 7 years for some sort of monitoring thing with a free period which had - and they are not admitting any fault here no-sir-e - a cancellation period that was confusing to some people. So if you cancelled after the trial but in the first period and blah blah other confusing shit, here's your check.

For me it's under $20 and a great example of what we're losing with this agency. How else is some sketchy but not too costly sort of nonsense like this going to get policed? Class action suits need to be more clear-cut. Even if they did get taken up, the payout on those would be a big chunk of money for the contingency for the lawyers and the rest of us would get coupons for shit we don't want and which will often enrich the initial bad actors.

I should frame it as a memorial of a time that was too short and now gone but the fuck if I'll let those bastards keep any money, no matter how small.
posted by phearlez at 10:44 AM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


Frequently you can hear him get to the end of a line on the teleprompter and stop there, then begin the next line as if it's a new sentence.

He also frequently interjects his own comments as if he's only just discovered the meaning of what he's just said & has something of his own to say about it.
posted by scalefree at 10:48 AM on January 19, 2018 [61 favorites]


Well we just had the all-hands "it's probably really happening this time" call. Everyone told to come in for 4 hours Monday to turn in our laptops. Letters to your creditors will be available from HR. All scheduled leave will be cancelled, which I'm sure is good news for the two pregnant women we have in my office, one of whom is due two weeks from now. Personally I delayed paying off my (large) credit card bill from all our holiday travel/gifts/etc to make sure we could cover our February mortgage payment if necessary without me getting paid. It hasn't even happened yet and the shithole shutdown is having a large effect on the federal workforce.

I suppose a shutdown is complicated by the possibility of playing the blame game after the fact, and by the way a shutdown could fit in with "starve the beast" concepts* but I would have assumed that at some point everyone involved has a BATNA that isn't a shutdown*? Is it a diffusion of responsibility thing, where MoCs don't have to own something 534 other people were involved in? Or am I just horribly naive in assuming that a no one exists who thinks a DACA agreement is worse than shutting down the federal government?

Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell's BATNA is the shutdown, because the result of a negotiated agreement with Democrats is the Tea Party and FOX News turning on them, and possibly their own personal safety from their crazed base.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:54 AM on January 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


From the leopards decide to eat your face after all department (as reported by the NYT): Drilling Off Florida Is Still On the Table, Interior Official Says
In a surprise statement undercutting Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s announcement last week that he was exempting Florida from President Trump’s offshore drilling plan, the acting director of the federal agency in charge of offshore oil and gas leases said that Florida’s coastal waters had not been excluded after all.

[...]

On Friday, the head of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which manages offshore leasing, said Mr. Zinke’s Florida decision was not final.

“It is not a formal action, no,” Walter Cruickshank, the bureau’s acting director, told a subcommitteeof the House Committee on Natural Resources.

The bureau was pushing ahead with an analysis of resources off Florida’s shores, Mr. Cruickshank said, and a formal decision on whether to commence offshore leasing off Florida would come after that analysis.

“The secretary’s decision will be reflected in the proposed program decision,” he said.

He was not aware that anyone at Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had discussed Mr. Zinke’s Florida tweet beforehand, he added.
The committee's ranking Democrat got a headstart on the snark:
Representative Raúl M. Grijalva of Arizona, the senior Democrat on the subcommittee, responsible for energy and mineral resources, criticized the confusion caused by what he called “an out-of-control administration with incompetent top leadership.”

“Instead of carefully following laws and regulations, this administration writes policy on a napkin, announces it on social media and calls it a day,” Mr. Grijalva said.
posted by notyou at 10:55 AM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


A tweet from German International newspaper Handelsblatt Global: "Deutsche Bank reported questionable transactions involving President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, or people or businesses near him, to German securities regulators and will forward the info to special prosecutor Robert Mueller."

It will be interesting to see whether this gets confirmed and/or expanded by other outlets.
posted by scarylarry at 10:56 AM on January 19, 2018 [55 favorites]


Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug: but can anyone point me to resources discussing the game theory of the CR negotiations?

your question was so interesting I Asked it.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:59 AM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


> I've said it before, but I can remember a time (documented, among other things, in the recent Vietnam documentary) when Republicans routinely accused Democrats of being dupes of Moscow.

Yes, Republicans smearing their opponents as dupes of Moscow was a dark and corrosive tactic that reshaped the political landscape of the United States for the worse, for a generation. It was awful then, and it's still destructive now, so the less of it from all parties the better.
posted by creampuff at 10:59 AM on January 19, 2018


The conservative spin on this memo has come full circle. Hannity even compared whatever this is to Watergate by dismissing the latter as "a third-rate burglary," the same phrase White House press secretary Ron Ziegler used to dismiss the Watergate case before it led to dozens of convictions and resignations, including that of President Nixon.
posted by msalt at 11:00 AM on January 19, 2018 [17 favorites]


The problem is, we now how documented evidence of Putin's activities on the web and their connection to people in our country, It's not a smear if it's true!
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 11:02 AM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Supreme Court will hear the third travel ban case, to be argued in April.

Michelle Goldberg in an NYT op-ed on yesterday's N.R.A. revelations, Is This the Collusion We Were Waiting For?
In May 2016, Paul Erickson, an activist who has raised money for the National Rifle Association, sent an email to Rick Dearborn, an adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, with the super-subtle subject heading “Kremlin Connection.” As The New York Times reported last December, Erickson wrote that Russia was “quietly but actively seeking a dialogue with the U.S.” and planned to use the N.R.A.’s annual convention in Louisville, Ky. that month to make “first contact” with the Trump camp. At the convention, Donald Trump Jr. met with Aleksandr Torshin, an ally of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, reputed mobster and deputy governor of the Russian central bank.

This is one of those episodes that is easy to lose track of amid the avalanche of evidence connecting the Trump administration and Russia. But it takes on new significance because of an intriguing, potentially explosive article that McClatchy published Thursday headlined, “F.B.I. Investigating Whether Russian Money Went to N.R.A. to Help Trump.” We know of numerous secret communications between members of the Trump campaign and Russia, and favors asked for and received. This, however, is the most significant hint of a money trail. Norman Eisen, Barack Obama’s White House ethics czar, tweeted: “this could well be the collusion we have been waiting for, prosecutable as possible campaign finance crimes.”
...
“In terms of what the Russians are doing in the United States, it’s far broader than just the Trump campaign,” Schiff told me. “In that sense when people think that the Russian intervention was just about tipping the scales to one of the candidates in 2016, they’re thinking far too narrowly.”
posted by zachlipton at 11:04 AM on January 19, 2018 [59 favorites]


Yes, Republicans smearing their opponents as dupes of Moscow was a dark and corrosive tactic that reshaped the political landscape of the United States for the worse, for a generation. It was awful then, and it's still destructive now, so the less of it from all parties the better.

How about when we indict Republicans as dupes of Moscow. Is that cool?
posted by diogenes at 11:05 AM on January 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


It was awful then, and it's still destructive now, so the less of it from all parties the better.

No.

It was corrosive when Republicans did it because it was a lie. But the evidence is coming out that the GOP is actually compromised.

There is a difference.
posted by NoxAeternum at 11:06 AM on January 19, 2018 [111 favorites]


Hannity even compared whatever this is to Watergate by dismissing the latter as "a third-rate burglary," the same phrase White House press secretary Ron Ziegler used to dismiss the Watergate case before it led to dozens of convictions and resignations, including that of President Nixon.

The most striking thing to me about the Watergate podcast (it's called Slow Burn, produced by Slate) is the complete whole-cloth recycling of phrases used by Republicans to dismiss Watergate by current Republicans (sometimes the same exact people!) to dismiss Trump-Russia. The other creepy parallel is the vintage interviews with white working class men "who had always voted Democrat previously" who were Nixon's ride or die base as well.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:10 AM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


Schumer alone in a room with Trump is a recipe for the Republicans getting hosed. Trump sees himself having a lot more in common with a fellow New Yorker like Chuck Schumer than with humorless prigs like Tom Cotton. I doubt he could even find Arkansas on a map. Like I said with the last Schumer pow-wow:

Donnie loves stuff he's familiar with, and you can bet shooting the shit with guys like Chuck Schumer is a lot more comfortable to him than dealing with Mitch "can't disguise how much he dislikes you" McConnell and Paul "Stepford Eddie Munster" Ryan.

posted by leotrotsky at 11:15 AM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


I don't dare hope. but. it is entirely feasible that Chuck could talk Trump into selling the Dems the whole DACA farm and have him walk out feeling like a winner.
posted by lydhre at 11:18 AM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Ooof, just woke up to two comments deleted (I’m sorry!) and a hangover thanks to the Lillet that my critical theorist girlfriend and I drank last night while listening to The Boss. This is a lot to catch up on, but I want to take a note of one of my favorite pet topics that diogenes mentioned above:
Watching Fox News and Republican legislators amplify a Russian propaganda operation is profoundly disturbing.
I know I have probably harped on this a lot in these threads, but I totally agree and I cannot make it more clear how profoundly disturbed I feel looking at what seems to be a massive psychological warfare campaign on the American populace. There is probably major kompromat of the Republicans due to the Russian hacks during the election that has them scared, but that was the RNC and a few Republican politicians, how much could they really have? The amount of data they stole from the DNC was significant, but only a few pieces of it were actually weaponized and part of that was merely because the press doesn’t do enough critical research, and they went with the narrative of “the DNC got hacked and stole the primaries from Bernie!” instead of looking at the fact that specific documents were withheld to fit that narration. Also, the entire concept of “the DNC got hacked” portrays a weakness in them. Who gets hacked? Not smart people, that’s for sure! But the Republicans were hacked too, they just didn’t have their information released by a third-party intermediary at very specific intervals with very specific pieces suspiciously absent.

So how much could the Russian intelligence services actually have on the Republicans? I’ve seen it mentioned a lot in these threads, but if the RNC is anything like the DNC, it’s probably not much in those emails, and would only be useful if released to fit a specific narrative, with certain parts of it withheld to manipulate the populace. That wouldn’t work at this point. So what else is there that is making the Republicans a massive, coercive force for Russian propaganda? That’s an honest question, because I already have my conspiracy theory, which is that the Republicans are majorly involved in illegal Russian money and Fox News is a gigantic Russian intelligence operation. It seems highly suspicious to me that Fox News works as basically a Republican-run government news outlet that broadcasts propaganda and selectively obscures facts in order to highly pursue a fascist agenda, almost like RT 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 However, I have no evidence of that, so let’s not discuss my inane ramblings.

So what could the Russians really have on the Republicans that would make them act this way, and be so deep into crushing an investigation into somebody who is basically a random president? Think about it: Trump isn’t a Republican figure like Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush or anybody else whom he faced in the primary. He’s sort of a random figure, who got big on his own failed brand and a racist conspiracy theory. He was basically a kook. But what does that have to do with the Republican establishment at-large, to the point where people like even Mitch McConnell, who have nothing to do with Trump, are torpedoing a major investigation right from the outset, and pushing Russian propaganda? (I bring up Mitch because when Obama wanted to have a joint, bipartisan speech about Russian influence in the election, McConnell wasn’t down, he chose party over country, like the rabid traitor he is).

It just seems really suspicious to me that a fairly large group of people are willing to protect somebody who is basically a strange outlier. Trump barely puts forth Republican goals, so it’s not like he’s particularly useful to them, which makes me exceptionally suspicious of what’s going on. If this was an establishment figure it would make a lot more sense, but Trump isn’t an establishment Republican and never has been, he can’t possibly have a major amount of information that could destroy the Republican party (unless he was fed information by someone ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) The Republicans must have something weird going on with them as an institution to warrant this sort of response. I personally believe they’ve been co-opted by the Russians (and probably various other fascist groups) for many years now, going back even before Clinton. The Republicans have always gone above-and-beyond dirty tricks to win.
posted by gucci mane at 11:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


I don't dare hope. but. it is entirely feasible that Chuck could talk Trump into selling the Dems the whole DACA farm and have him walk out feeling like a winner.

That's called pulling a Feinstein.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:25 AM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


All scheduled leave will be cancelled, which I'm sure is good news for the two pregnant women we have in my office, one of whom is due two weeks from now.

From what I understand, parental leave is unpaid. But if leave is cancelled during the shutdown, those women will officially be on shutdown furlough, not paternal leave and end up being paid for their time off when they return. Might actually be a better deal. (Not that I am an expert on federal employment benefits).
posted by JackFlash at 11:28 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


We had a 1:30 call on shutdown procedures, and another call with higher-ups is scheduled for 3:00. It’s awesome telling my 30 employees that they may get furloughed tonight.
posted by wintermind at 11:36 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


This might be a little close to philosophical noodling, but can anyone point me to resources discussing the game theory of the CR negotiations? I suppose a shutdown is complicated by the possibility of playing the blame game after the fact, and by the way a shutdown could fit in with "starve the beast" concepts* but I would have assumed that at some point everyone involved has a BATNA that isn't a shutdown*? Is it a diffusion of responsibility thing, where MoCs don't have to own something 534 other people were involved in? Or am I just horribly naive in assuming that a no one exists who thinks a DACA agreement is worse than shutting down the federal government?

(1) It's not really game theory -- more a preference aggregation problem. When you take a bunch of people who have individually rational (ie complete and transitive) preferences over a set of outcomes, the collective preference of that group (or subgroups like the GOP or freedom caucus) can frequently become weird, irrational, and nonsensical. These problems are not even theoretically possible to solve.

(2) To the extent that you're going to point to something game-theoretical or close to it, the best analogy is probably a collective action problem. Sure, there are probably lots of Republicans who would prefer DACA agreement + no shutdown to a shutdown. BUT, the problem is lots of that group probably prefer "DACA agreement happens but I voted against it, and no shutdown" to "DACA agreement I voted for, and no shutdown."
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:37 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Most people use their sick and then annual leave as parental for as long as it lasts, that's what I was thinking of. I'm not totally sure what their leave situation is, since I'm not a supervisor. Assuming everyone eventually gets back pay, maybe it won't be an issue.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:38 AM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]




Money man: Reclusive U.S. billionaire Robert Mercer helped Donald Trump win the presidency. But what is his ultimate goal? (Keith Boag, CBC)
Bannon’s relationship with Robert Mercer is cited in a remarkable lawsuit brought by David Magerman, a former employee of Mercer’s hedge fund, Renaissance Technologies. On its surface, the lawsuit is a wrongful dismissal complaint against Mercer. But at its heart, it is an indictment of Mercer’s character and reputation that draws together his political views, his connections to Bannon and Trump and racist comments Mercer allegedly made to Magerman directly.

“I have a lot of respect for Bob Mercer. I think he’s a very intelligent person, a very thoughtful person,” Magerman told me recently. But he quickly added, “If the world knew what he was trying to do, they wouldn’t stand for it.”
...
In January 2017, before Trump’s inauguration, Magerman called Mercer to chat about politics and the new administration. He wanted to persuade Mercer to withdraw support from Trump.

They talked about Obamacare and the social safety net and disagreed about Trump’s positions on those issues. Then, Magerman says Mercer made a series of comments on U.S. society:
◾The United States began to go in the wrong direction after the passage of the Civil Rights Act in the 1960s;
◾African-Americans were doing fine in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s before The Civil Rights Act; 

◾The Civil Rights Act “infantilized” African Americans by making them dependent on government and removing any incentive to work; 

◾The only racist people remaining in the U.S. are black; and 

◾White people have no racial animus toward African-Americans anymore, and if there is any, it’s not something the government should be concerned with.

Magerman felt he couldn’t keep that to himself.
For his troubles, Magerman ended up dismissed from his job.
posted by ZeusHumms at 11:43 AM on January 19, 2018 [72 favorites]


The Republicans must have something weird going on with them as an institution to warrant this sort of response.

It's got a nonzero probability. But I just wouldn't discount the notion that some people are motivated by the idea that Democrats are world-destroyingly bad for one reason or another (e.g. socialism = communism and that inevitably ends in totalitarianism, or Democrats make the government condone abortion, which is an unending society-wide massacre) and that drives some Republicans to take extreme measures to defeat them.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:46 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Feds seeking to re-try Sen Menendez.

Bob, time to resign. Gov Murphy can appoint a Dem.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:59 AM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


Court rules in favor of special master's map for North Carolina state legislative districts, to take effect immediately. This should result in a several seat Dem pickup and break the GOP's veto-proof majorities.

This is separate from the ruling that SCOTUS just stayed - that was about NC Congressional districts and partisan gerrymandering. This is state legislative and racial gerrymandering, which has a lot more case law behind it.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:03 PM on January 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


A tweet from German International newspaper Handelsblatt Global: "Deutsche Bank reported questionable transactions involving President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, or people or businesses near him, to German securities regulators and will forward the info to special prosecutor Robert Mueller."

It will be interesting to see whether this gets confirmed and/or expanded by other outlets.


Someone miss making payments on time?
posted by azpenguin at 12:06 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Trump is historically unpopular. But the intensity gap should really terrify Republicans (Paul Waldman | WaPo)
With the anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration coming tomorrow, there’s a raft of new polls out assessing what the American people think of the president, and the big story is that, just as he has cast aside norms of behavior, candor and propriety from his first day in office, Trump is breaking new ground.

There’s never been a president who was as deeply unpopular for as long as he has been at this stage of his presidency.

And when you look deeper into the polls, you see signs of real trouble for Republicans, driven by Trump’s ability to suck up everyone’s attention and focus. The president is always the main protagonist of our political story, but we may never have seen a period as personalized in one figure as this one is. And that is the single biggest problem Republicans face this November.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


I just watched some professional mouth user on TV explain how the economy is booming and unemployment is lower, and all in just one year, thanks to Trump. I recall back in 2008 the same kind of flappy jaws moaning about how Obama tanked the world economy and caused the GFC, all in just one year.

I'm not an economist, but it seems to me Obama inherited a disaster, was blamed for it, then spent 8 years turning it into a miracle, and Trump then claims the miracle as his own. In truth we're yet to see the looming financial disaster of Trumpist policies. That'll start happening sometime after the midterms, just as planned.

Obama left a solid, growing economy. Solid enough to weather a year of Trump, and they may claim it as their own, but the bruises will be showing soon. Then they'll go back to blaming Obama.
posted by adept256 at 12:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [47 favorites]


> It's a point that gets lost in the rhetoric about fruit pickers and chicken pluckers, but if you're a top engineer from India or a Heart Surgeon from Germany - why would you come to America?

> It only takes one paperwork mistake for the ICE to show up, shoot your dog,


Yes, and this isn't just theoretical.

One of my friends is from India and was a co-worker of the Garmin engineer who was shot and killed about a year ago by an anti-immigrant nutter.

Amazingly, my friend didn't feel very welcome or safe around here after that, and soon moved out of the area.

Can't blame her, honestly.
posted by flug at 12:12 PM on January 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


But I just wouldn't discount the notion that some people are motivated by the idea that Democrats are world-destroyingly bad[...]and that drives some Republicans to take extreme measures to defeat them.
posted by Jpfed at 11:46 AM on January 19 [+] [!]


Like colluding with Russians?
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:32 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]




Money man: Reclusive U.S. billionaire Robert Mercer helped Donald Trump win the presidency. But what is his ultimate goal? (Keith Boag, CBC)

Is it just straight up white supremacy?

Of course it is.

We need a corollary of Betteridge’s Law.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:37 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


@Jpfed:
It's got a nonzero probability. But I just wouldn't discount the notion that some people are motivated by the idea that Democrats are world-destroyingly bad for one reason or another (e.g. socialism = communism and that inevitably ends in totalitarianism, or Democrats make the government condone abortion, which is an unending society-wide massacre) and that drives some Republicans to take extreme measures to defeat them.
I understand this notion, but it is an entirely moral one that can be answered by the religiosity of America and the ingrained churches across the nation, it doesn’t explain establishment groups in DC trying to upend an investigation. Is McConnell a major religious voice on the right, or Nunes, or Growdy, or any of the other major players in this? Trump himself is hardly a source of morality or religion, so it doesn’t explain him either. Pence I can see, he’s a major religious figure in those sections of American society, but Trump definitely is not. And that is what makes this all so perplexing: he’s an outside figure, outside of the establishment, and yet the establishment appears to mostly be running interception for him in order to cover their own asses. Why? That’s what I want to know. We have a large group of people who suddenly are enveloped in covering up for Russia. What’s the game there? When I was a teen during the Bush admin I read a lot of stuff on here and in other places about the horrors of that administration, but I almost never saw anything about Russian meddling or intense scrutiny of that administration or the Republican establishment in regard to Russia. Now, all of a sudden we have people like McConnell, who are high up establishment figures, trying their best to curtail a major investigation. The tribalism aspect doesn’t fully explain it, in my eyes, although I could definitely write a paper about Fox News as a propaganda installation that’s been used to manipulate the American populace, much like similar organizations in authoritarian countries, and how that has swayed people to be tribalistic, but as far as the actual establishment goes, it seems exceptionally fishy that they are so gung ho to defend somebody who is barely part of their tribe. Bush didn’t win the popular vote, but he had major Republican establishment people helping him and inside of his administration, lots of people who worked in neo-conservative think-tanks and previous Republican administrations. Trump has none of that. He’s barely an establishment figure, and repeating myself, it seems very fishy that the establishment is jumping to defend theirselves from what appears to be an outside threat. This is all rambling conspiracy nonsense, of course.
posted by gucci mane at 12:37 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Court rules in favor of special master's map for North Carolina state legislative districts, to take effect immediately. This should result in a several seat Dem pickup and break the GOP's veto-proof majorities.

This November article has some context.

[One Republican lawmaker said] the lawmakers should get another chance to draw the lines [before the special master's map was adopted]. The judges, frustrated by the slow pace with which lawmakers were proceeding to change election lines stated: “The State is not entitled to multiple opportunities to remedy its unconstitutional districts.”
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:41 PM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


Wait what is going on with Newsweek

From the article:
According to several sources, the law enforcement visit is related to a DA investigation that's been going on for over a year. A company lawyer today told employees that the investigation is related to the "procurement of servers," and that no arrests or indictments have been issued.

Representatives of the New York County (Manhattan) District Attorney's Office visited the New York City offices of Newsweek Media Group today to conduct a search of the company’s computer servers to obtain technical information about the servers.
Sounds to me like some kind of embezzlement issue, maybe, like maybe someone claimed to spend $5 million dollars on $2.5 million dollars worth of equipment in racks.

Probably not at all political. But what do I know?
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


If you haven't seen it yet, McConnell's office tweeted out a truly astonishing graphic this morning saying that "Democrats have a choice to make": CHIP or DACA, literally offering either health insurance for children or saving Dreamers from deportation (along with misleading information about when DACA expires).

I know we're used to bad faith from these people, but this is just straight-up comic book villain "I'm shooting one of the hostages; you choose" stuff from the people who are supposed to be governing.

Whatever's going on after the Schumer-Trump meeting, things have gotten very, very quiet, with leadership meeting and lots of thumb-twiddling.
posted by zachlipton at 12:43 PM on January 19, 2018 [82 favorites]


Also, this is sure something: The Republican lawmakers who led the redistricting process in the General Assembly stated that one of their criteria was to protect incumbent lawmakers.

Like. Aren't they at least supposed to LIE about that??
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:44 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Newsweek's own reporting on the police showing up at their newsroom is pretty good (hey, they're certainly interested in the story, and they have the best access). It sounds like there have been financial shenanigans by their owners: "The probe was likely looking at loans the company took out to purchase the servers."
“Nobody’s going to jail,” one agent told a concerned employee. “Your magazine’s going to be fine. Newsweek has been here for a long time. It’s going to be here for a long, long time.”
It's weird, but doesn't seem like cause for alarm at this point.
posted by zachlipton at 12:47 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I actually thought Newsweek had already folded, but I guess I was confusing it with U.S. News & World Report.
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:51 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Like. Aren't they at least supposed to LIE about that??

Not really. SCOTUS held in Gaffney vs Cummings that gerrymandering for the purpose of incumbent protection is not unconstitutional under the Equal Protection Clause..

It's unconstitutional to try and minimize minority representation/votes. And it's maybe unconstitutional to go too far in maximizing one party's representation (that what all this current stuff at SCOTUS is about). But it's not, to my understanding, unconstitutional to try and district so as to keep all the current incumbents in.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:53 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Their little world will always be surrounded by the deep, dark forest, full of all kinds of nasty and dangerous creatures wearing human and animal skins.

I want to point out that this doesn't map that well to deeper rural citizens, and that there's a danger to dismissing the issue with too much simplicity. I think it only really maps somewhat reliably to suburban and near-rural folks, and it's not just a conservative psychological quirk or instinct or whatever.

I know plenty of people on all points of the political spectrum that have similar fears, and many of them are instinctual. I'm not disagreeing that hard core conservatives tend to dwell in these fears more and let it control their worldview in toxic and limiting ways, but it's not like they invented fear, doubt and uncertainty.

Something I've noticed is that the farther out in the rurals and proper wilderness you get, the less people are afraid of "dangerous creatures" because they actually live with them, and they're not sitting around in fear or paranoia that coyotes, mountain lions, bears or wolves are out to get them. Ranchers might have some concerns about livestock, but they're not ever really worrying about getting personally attacked.

One of the axioms you hear from hikers, country people and related demographics is that the most dangerous animal in the wilderness is another human, and sometimes it's yourself.

But that danger tends to drop off the farther away you get from the trailhead, city or suburb. The farther and farther out and more remote you are the chances that any human you meet out there isn't dangerous go up rapidly. The logic is is you have to have your shit together, your head on your shoulders and a better quality of character to hike that deep into the wilderness on your own, and evidence supports that as a rule of thumb.

People who live in rural, country or wilderness and spend time in it just don't actually view nature the way you're describing it. Even a lot of the conservative rednecks I've met are quite comfortable in the deep, dark forest because there's just not that much out there, and even with a little experience you can tell the differences between a deer walking around, a human, a coyote and a bear. Heck, you can hear the differences between a squirrel and a sparrow on the ground at 100 feet, because they make completely different sounds. (Side note: Humans are LOUD. Because they're bipedal. More impact force per square CM.)

If anything some of the traits you're describing about control have less to do with fear and more to do with entitlement, and arrogance that they are mandated to do these things. See: Manifest Destiny, biblical philosophy about man's domain over the earth.

It's dangerous to miscategorize this as "their little world", when lust and hunger are also very real and present, and it's apparent that neoconservatives are perfectly capable on thinking in global terms for the purposes of power, control and wealth. (See also: temporarily disposed billionaire syndrome.)

Do not let Trump's bumbling, foolish ways let you forget the sophisticated cruelty of neoconservative politics over the last 100+ years.
posted by loquacious at 12:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


I know we're used to bad faith from these people, but this is just straight-up comic book villain "I'm shooting one of the hostages; you choose" stuff from the people who are supposed to be governing.

...when supposedly they've said they don't want to shoot either hostage. This is why the Democrat's have a good argument they're not the ones shutting down the government, everything Democrats are demanding are things Republicans are ostensibly in favor of doing anyway. And why "giving" them CHIP right now is a non-starter. Why are Democrats supposed to give Republicans anything in exchange for something Republicans say they want to do?
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


Court rules in favor of special master's map for North Carolina state legislative districts, to take effect immediately. This should result in a several seat Dem pickup and break the GOP's veto-proof majorities.

This is separate from the ruling that SCOTUS just stayed - that was about NC Congressional districts and partisan gerrymandering. This is state legislative and racial gerrymandering, which has a lot more case law behind it.



As participants of this thread probably know all too well, Roy Cooper (D) is now the Governor of NC. So it's critically important that, if he vetoes crappy legislation from the General Assembly, that it stays vetoed.

Just to attach some numbers to the good news of the new nonpartisan state districts:

The NC General Assembly is bicameral, and includes the state Senate and the state House. Under the current scheme, here are the caucus breakdowns:

State Senate (50 total):
35 R
15 D

State House (120 total):
75 R
45 D

Under the new, nonpartisan districts, the projected split would be to shift at leas a few of the R seats to D in each house. That's before the effects of any "wave" that might allow Dems to overperform. At the very least, as mentioned above, the Rs will lose their ability to override the Dem Governor's vetos. At best, well, here are the vote tallies in the Presidential race in 2016:

Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%

Less than a 4% spread statewide. It makes the gerrrymandering in the state lege all the more obvious.

The statewide vote in 2016 suggests that, if there is a wave where Dems overperform significantly, it is conceivable that one of the state houses could flip. That's going to be crucial for when US congressional redistricting comes up again in 2020...
posted by darkstar at 12:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


It also, from what I can tell, is a shit publication and is not to be relied upon for anything other than clickbaity half-truths.
posted by Melismata at 12:59 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


If you haven't seen it yet, McConnell's office tweeted out a truly astonishing graphic this morning saying that "Democrats have a choice to make": CHIP or DACA, literally offering either health insurance for children or saving Dreamers from deportation (along with misleading information about when DACA expires).


During my morning drive, on NPR I heard Mitch McConnell make some asinine, hypocritical comment about how important it was for Congress to respect the constitutional role of the President, yadda yadda.

That's when I turned off the radio and said angrily, to no one present:

"Two words: Merrick. Garland. You. Fuck. Okay that's four words, but still."
posted by darkstar at 1:00 PM on January 19, 2018 [63 favorites]


...he’s an outside figure, outside of the establishment, and yet the establishment appears to mostly be running interception for him in order to cover their own asses. Why? That’s what I want to know.

You've essentially answered your own question.

There are several factions in the modern Republican Party. Some are laser-focused on financial issues like tax cuts, tax cuts, deregulation to allow wealthy people and businesses to do whatever they like. Some are culture warriors, intent on putting uppity minorities back behind good American straight Christian white folk in the food chain, as forcefully as necessary. (A subset of those want to turn the whole shebang over to Jesus.) Some are standard-bearing power brokers who would do or say anything if it advanced their own political power and influence. These fractures were particularly visible in the 2012 election, where the fiscals backed Romney and the other factions pushed one candidate after another and ended up in a Romney - Santorum - Gingrich slapfight. To some extend all three factions view each other as useful idiots, though there is, of course, some crossover.

Now, the rising aggressiveness of conservative media has brought forth a fourth faction, the Teahadi populists. These are people who may well sympathize with interests from #1 through #3 but have no loyalty whatsoever to the politicians who represent those interests. They listen to their filtered media sources and repeat the mantra: Tear it all down. Burn government to the ground. Throw out all the bums because none of them keep their promises. They are intent on, as someone so aptly put it during the Roy Moore candidacy, always nominating the craziest sonofabitch in the room. And if you're a 'mainstream' Republican, or if you dare to vote occasionally in a way that they don't like, prepare to be primaried.

One of the side effects of being the Party of No through the whole Obama administration, of proudly yelling that they are there to simply impede government doing anything, is that your constituents get to election time and try to remember what it is you've done for them these last few years and go "Hmmph. Nothing." Especially when the radio is screaming that they should've banned all abortions and rolled back gay marriage and repealed Obamacare in full and zeroed all taxes and banned Islam and deported all immigrants by now IF THEY JUST HAD THE WILL AND WEREN'T PART OF THE DEEP STATE. So the people-who-occasionally-want-to-get-SOMETHING-done lose influence and the bomb-throwers gain strength. No one among the p-w-o-w-t-g-S-d clan stands out as a potential leader. This is how you get a clown car full of milquetoast candidates and a Trump emerging from them. Say what you will about bullhorned authoritarian white supremacism, at least it's an ethos.

The 'mainstream' Republicans see this. They would like to stay employed. So they are walking knife-edges trying to do what Trump and his Teahadis want, but also knowing that for the most part that's impossible. They know that the best way to keep their jobs in an impending blue wave is to be as invisible as possible. They see the invective blasted at anyone like McCain or Flake who dares question the Make America burn to the Ground Again movement. And they know that if the party crumbles, their jobs crumble with it, so better to hide in plain sight. So they go through the motions, defend what they can, dodge questions when they can, pretend to try to pass sham bills and pass the responsbility over to the other house. Not much gets done, no one emerges clean, and we stumble forwards to another day to repeat the process.
posted by delfin at 1:05 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


I actually thought Newsweek had already folded, but I guess I was confusing it with U.S. News & World Report.

Newsweek has gone through several owners and restructurings over the last decade, ceasing print publication in 2012 only to resume it in 2014 under new ownership (it remained in circulation online in the interim); it's had an almost complete changeover in staffing from between 2009 and today. In other words: if you remembered it ceasing publication, you're not exactly wrong.


It pivoted to autoplaying video. Any video. Not necessarily relevant video.

I see newsweek and I nope for that reason alone.
posted by srboisvert at 1:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


Newsweek was recently purchased by International Business Times. Which is a whole weird thing.
posted by MrVisible at 1:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


People who live in rural, country or wilderness and spend time in it just don't actually view nature the way you're describing it. Even a lot of the conservative rednecks I've met are quite comfortable in the deep, dark forest because there's just not that much out there, and even with a little experience you can tell the differences between a deer walking around, a human, a coyote and a bear.

Most rural conservatives (as I meant and know them) don't actually live in wilderness or really out in the country unless they're ranchers, and instead live in small towns or exurbs. Often older/retired, often having moved there from cities and blue states out of variably-veiled racism and xenophobia. There are of course plenty of people actually living in the woods who aren't scared of wolves, but they're not the majority of "rural" conservatives.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


darkstar: "Two words: Merrick. Garland. You. Fuck. Okay that's four words, but still."

Nah, if you're reacting to McConnell, "Fuck" and"you" are like free squares on the board.


Has anyone heard from Pence today? Where is he in all the knees-bent, running-about this afternoon?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Casey Michel, ThinkProgress: The bizarre rise and dramatic fall of Louise Mensch and her ‘Blue Detectives’

Subtitled "A year later, why does anyone still listen to Seth Abramson?"
A year ago, as Donald Trump prepared to take office, a new crop of self-proclaimed investigators burst forth to unspool the Russian conspiracy they claim launched Trump into the White House. Leaning on Twitter as their preferred platform, these voices worked to unwind the Kremlin ties that, in their mind, cost Hillary Clinton the election.

Led by British gadfly Louise Mensch (269,000 followers on Twitter currently) and going by a handful of names and hashtags — including #TeamPatriot — this coterie largely avoided any kind of original reportage, instead opting to try piece together open-source information that they believed journalists elsewhere had overlooked. In the early days of the Trump administration, they were, as BuzzFeed’s Charlie Warzel wrote, a “mooring force” for the anti-Trump “Resistance.” With Mensch’s 2017 op-ed in the New York Times on Russian hacking, this group — which Warzel termed the “Blue Detectives” — appeared ascendant.

A year on, though, the group is in tatters, roundly mocked by experts on Russian-American relations, ignored by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his staff, and barreling quickly toward irrelevance. Where these “Blue Detectives” once looked like they may unearth some kind of smoking gun linking Trump and the Kremlin — or could at least help fill in certain missing pieces of the puzzle — they are now as derided, and derisive, as their earliest critics pegged them. They have become, as Deadspin noted, “the InfoWars of the left.”
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:16 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


It is eerily quiet on the typical fronts. I feel like in contrast to 2013, everyone's just sleepwalking into this shutdown.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:17 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Has anyone heard from Pence today? Where is he in all the knees-bent, running-about this afternoon?

Pence leaving for Middle East Friday regardless of shutdown.
posted by PearlRose at 1:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


If you haven't seen it yet, McConnell's office tweeted out a truly astonishing graphic this morning saying that "Democrats have a choice to make": CHIP or DACA, literally offering either health insurance for children or saving Dreamers from deportation (along with misleading information about when DACA expires).

Mitch McConnell as National Lampoon salesman.
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Louise Mensch is sort of the Left's version of Sebastian Gorka (GORKAAAAAAH!).
posted by orrnyereg at 1:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


gucci mane So what could the Russians really have on the Republicans that would make them act this way, and be so deep into crushing an investigation into somebody who is basically a random president?

I wouldn't say it's impossible the Russians are blackmailing many Republicans, but I don't think its necessary to explain what we're seeing.

First off, don't forget that as long as they can get their own Party together, the Republicans are getting everything they want. The only reason they failed on the ACA repeal was because of insufficient Party cohesion.

Therefore, to the Party leadership, doing whatever it takes to hold the Republicans together is an overriding imperative. And attacking Trump, or even mildly criticizing him, is a surefire way for the Republicans to tear themselves apart.

There's a faction of the Republican Party that is fully, no fooling, in the Trump Cult. There's a faction that isn't, but relies on Trump Cultists for votes so they act as if they were in the Trump Cult. Pissing off those factions by going after Trump, or even being insufficiently submissive to Trump, will result in none of the Republican wish list being implemented. Therefore all elected Republicans see their self interest align with buttering up Trump.

And there's also the still gaping and painful psychological wounds of Nixon. At least as important as self interest in getting shit passed is the simple fact that most elected Republicans are emotionally unable to deal with seeing yet another Republican President forced out of office. Sure, they can claim he was never a real Republican, that he'd been a Democrat for ages, that he was an outsider, whatever. But at the end of the day he's a Republican President and they cannot, no matter what, handle the idea of a second Nixon resignation.

I think that last part is the most relevant and that like a lot of deeply painful psychological stuff the Republican leadership doesn't actually think about it, but it motivates them. They'll come up with all manner of justifications and excuses, but the real reason is that they can't deal with the pain of a second Republican President being forced out of office.

Also also, never forget that in all humans there's a drive to protect the in group and especially the important people in the in group.

Look, for example, at how the Hollywood establishment, most of them professed feminists and liberals, rallied around Roman Polanski and to this day will defend him. We see it in churches with molesting leaders where the overriding goal isn't to get justice for the victims, but to protect the reputation of the in group. It's the same drive, the same basic human failing.

Trump is the boss Republican right now. Therefore they must defend him. Among themselves they my dislike him and speak badly of him, but an outsider cannot be permitted to do the same.
posted by sotonohito at 1:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


Let's not bring the Polanski situation into this.
posted by Melismata at 1:23 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


I'm starting to suspect Schumer doesn't actually have the votes for a shutdown...assuming McConnell can come up with 50 himself. That's why Schumer blinked a little last night and tried to suggest the 3-4 day CR to "buy time to negotiate an immigration deal", as if lack of time is what's holding up the deal and anything would change McConnell and Ryan's sheer terror of talking to Democrats in 3 days. Manchin and Joe Donnelly have said they won't vote for a shutdown, McCaskill tried hard to not answer yesterday. I suspect if the chips come down tonight and Schumer has to corral his votes, he won't be able to do it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


zachlipton: I'm pretty sure that it would be rather bad policy to change the law to disallow babies to be born during the ninth month.

"Only with a national C-section mandate can we hope to eventually defeat America's greatest enemy: Macbeth"
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


I know some of you are active redditors. Right now there is apparently a “memo gate” related post on T_D that explicitly calls for lynching Obama. I kind of don’t want to link to it, and I wish I had never seen it. (It was sent to me, and the title of the post I saw (evidently on an anti-hate subreddit) is simply “oh shit,” so there’s no warning about what you’re going to see.)

This seems like a dramatic escalation from a hate group that feeds off of Reddit to grow. And Reddit continues to allow T_D to exist.

If there is ever a time to do anything to pressure Reddit into eliminating T_D, now is it.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


FTFA "Pence leaving for Middle East Friday regardless of shutdown":
Pence will depart Friday evening for a planned trip to the Middle East, taking off from Joint Base Andrews about four and a half hours before the government is set to run out of money.
My old manager was an Air Force pilot. He said that they used to keep a bundle of cash onboard in case the plane were forced to land somewhere and needed to buy fuel to get home.

Can you imagine the shutdown hitting while Pence is in flight, and him being forced to ask the pilot to bust out the emergency greenbacks so he can make his connecting flight to Riyadh?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Louise Mensch is sort of the Left's version of Sebastian Gorka

Except she's a ex Tory MP. The only thing you need to know about Mensch is that she will promote Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election while denying there was absolutely none in the Brexit vote.
posted by PenDevil at 1:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


And that is not...look, I know Reddit is literally the only place for a lot of important support communities; that’s why I still go there occasionally. But it is not a neutral force in the world, and they need to be held to account for what they’ve grown on their platform. They choose to allow this.

I don’t really know what to do about it, but Jesus Christ.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


David Kurtz (TPM): “Your occasional reminder that this is the best WH staff Trump will have. The quicker he grinds down his A team with things like a stupid one-party govt shutdown, the quicker we get to the B and C teams. It can get so much worse. And likely will.” (@TPM_dk)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


It is eerily quiet on the typical fronts. I feel like in contrast to 2013, everyone's just sleepwalking into this shutdown.

I see it's been discussed before, but as far as I can tell, nobody knows what's going to happen. Between me and friends/family, most of us work at or with a federal agency and all but one of us has no idea if we'll be showing up for work on Monday. I don't know if it's because it's Trump's people being stunningly incompetent or some other reason, but federal employees and contractors are in a completely bonkers situation right now, and as far as we can see at the moment almost none of the high-ups have done a damn thing to prepare.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


Sure, they can claim [Nixon] was never a real Republican, that he'd been a Democrat for ages

What's the usual basis for this claim? I think he ran for office as a Republican in 1948, so it seems a bit out of left field.
posted by Coventry at 1:32 PM on January 19, 2018


The quicker he grinds down his A team with things like a stupid one-party govt shutdown, the quicker we get to the B and C teams.

Wait, this is the A team still? I think we're at least to D or E by now.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


federal employees and contractors are in a completely bonkers situation right now, and as far as we can see at the moment almost none of the high-ups have done a damn thing to prepare.

Yeah, there was no direction from our chain of command regarding the possible shutdown as of 5 pm yesterday. I guess that means I should check my cell for texts from my boss (I'm off work today).

This is shameful.
posted by suelac at 1:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


suelac, leadership at my agency finally stumbled into action this afternoon, you may have a few e-mails.
posted by wintermind at 1:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


There's a faction of the Republican Party that is fully, no fooling, in the Trump Cult.

Roy Blunt. R-MO.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:44 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I mean, let's say Trump and Schumer HAD made some sort of deal. Why would anyone believe Trump would go through with it or live up to it? He's just fucking with people to fuck with them and tossing out random contradictory soundbites about immigration, an issue he knows nothing about. He said he was in favor of literally 5 or 6 completely incompatible positions on immigration just in that one meeting last week.

He doesn't even have a goal or objective outside of keeping his name in the headlines and making his gross fans froth at the mouth. If he can jerk around a sizable number of pols along the way, so much the better.

WHY are these IDIOTS wasting precious TIME on his bullshit?
posted by FelliniBlank at 1:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Tom Nichols, WaPo: Trump’s first year: A damage assessment

This is his grim conclusion:
Perhaps most dispiriting, Trump has shattered the notion, at home and abroad, that no matter how partisan our politics, no matter how crazy our elections, every two to four years the result is a group of relatively stable adults who know what they’re doing.

All of this means the next president will have to rebuild the office almost from the ground up. Americans will have to learn once again to take the presidency seriously. Congress will have to return to the assumption that the president understands — and cares about — policy. International alliances will have to be healed. Foreign enemies will have to be reminded that the word of the commander in chief matters. An entire branch of government will have to be reestablished at home and abroad.

Will Americans and their next president be up to the task? Three more years of this, and any such restoration of the republic may be out of reach.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:55 PM on January 19, 2018 [83 favorites]


He said that they used to keep a bundle of cash onboard in case the plane were forced to land somewhere and needed to buy fuel to get home.

Sounds like a good policy, the kind that's set by competent leadership and managed by an accountability trail to make sure it's followed.

Any bets on whether this policy is (1) still in place and (2) still followed?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:56 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Coventry: "What's the usual basis for this claim? I think he ran for office as a Republican in 1948, so it seems a bit out of left field."

I think you misread that - sotonohito was saying that Trump might be claimed not to "really" be a Republican.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:57 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Ah, right. Thanks.
posted by Coventry at 1:58 PM on January 19, 2018


Clubbable, but in the Worst Way From the NYTimes
The main point is: Trump is not demented or mentally ill, he is stupid in the specific way rich people can be stupid.
posted by mumimor at 2:01 PM on January 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


Chuck Todd on MTP thinks Schumer is going to cave and go for a 3 week CR. That would be in line with standard Democratic operating procedure. On the other hand, Chuck Todd. So we'll see.
posted by Justinian at 2:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


The main point is: Trump is not demented or mentally ill, he is stupid in the specific way rich people can be stupid.

Because wealth and power can disconnect one from consequences?
posted by ZeusHumms at 2:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Erik Wemple, Sources: The Hill’s John Solomon offered money to Bill Clinton for an interview series
A model for the series, in Solomon’s view, was the David Frost-Richard Nixon interviews from 1977. Those sessions broke all sorts of news, in large part because the disgraced Nixon apologized to the American people for his misdeeds. They also served as a model for Solomon & Co. for another reason: Nixon was paid $600,000, plus a share of the profits for his troubles. Per The Hill’s proposal, Clinton would receive a portion of the proceeds, a sum that would amount to “big money,” said one source, referring to The Hill’s offer. Another source said The Hill spoke of compensation in the seven-figure range.

According to a source, The Hill was open to making the payments either directly to Clinton or to the Clinton Global Initiative, a project of the Clinton Foundation. A review of The Hill’s proposal confirmed that account. Neither Solomon nor James A. Finkelstein, the chairman of The Hill, responded to multiple requests for comment.
So Solomon wanted to funnel more than a million dollars to the Clinton Global Initiative (or just to the Clintons personally) as he ran around proclaiming them to be corrupt? He really is the worst. And it's beautiful to see real reporters at the Hill fighting back like this.
posted by zachlipton at 2:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


For the last couple(?) of days, the Washington Post website has been running a "Developing: Shutdown Deadline" countdown clock, which is now down to:

Shutdown deadline: 0d 6h 31m 30s

This is no way to run a country, let alone a country that purports to be a democratic model for the rest of the world, the guarantor of security, and the backstop of the global economic system. And for the first time, it is happening in a scenario where one party controls the Presidency, House, and Senate.

For shame, Republicans. For shame.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:28 PM on January 19, 2018 [35 favorites]


let alone a country that purports to be a democratic model for the rest of the world, the guarantor of security, and the backstop of the global economic system.

Well, the good news is all of that is out the window, now. We're not the leader of shit, and not the model for shit, anymore, and the whole world knows it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:32 PM on January 19, 2018 [38 favorites]


Louise Mensch is not, by a long distance, of the Left. Though it appears that she's not really so much a principled conservative either as a media-savvy self-promoter and/or rampant Milo-esque narcissist, depending on how generous one wants to be.
posted by acb at 2:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [25 favorites]


have we had a Trump/politics thread that didn't include any ritual denunciations of Louise Mensch? just wondering
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:49 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I hope not.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:50 PM on January 19, 2018 [31 favorites]


Twitter blog: Update on Twitter’s Review of the 2016 U.S. Election
As previously announced, we identified and suspended a number of accounts that were potentially connected to a propaganda effort by a Russian government-linked organization known as the Internet Research Agency (IRA).

Consistent with our commitment to transparency, we are emailing notifications to 677,775 people in the United States who followed one of these accounts or retweeted or liked a Tweet from these accounts during the election period. Because we have already suspended these accounts, the relevant content on Twitter is no longer publicly available. […]

We have also provided Congress with the results of our supplemental analysis into activity believed to be automated, election-related activity originating out of Russia during the election period. Through our supplemental analysis, we have identified 13,512 additional accounts, for a total of 50,258 automated accounts that we identified as Russian-linked and Tweeting election-related content during the election period, representing approximately two one-hundredths of a percent (0.016%) of the total accounts on Twitter at the time. However any such activity represents a challenge to democratic societies everywhere, and we’re committed to continuing to work on this important issue.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:56 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


So, I thought I would turn on C-SPAN 2 to try and get a feel for what's going on right now. After a series of several second-stringers (Boozman (R-AR) and Daines (R-MT)) they brought out ol' Orrin Hatch to scold the Dems for their intransigence. I'll give it to him, he's truly a master of the lie of omission! The Republicans are going all-in on the "CHIP is great, why are the nasty Dems going to shut down the government and let sick kids die" story, too.
posted by wintermind at 2:57 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Re: Florida coast wont be razed by oil drilling per the maleficent gob of Queen Zinke:

“It is not a formal action, no,” Walter Cruickshank, the bureau’s acting director, told a subcommitteeof the House Committee on Natural Resources.

Walter Crook Shank

*toasts 2018 writers*
*faceplants on table*
posted by petebest at 3:00 PM on January 19, 2018 [17 favorites]


> Consistent with our commitment to transparency, we are emailing notifications to 677,775 people in the United States who followed one of these accounts or retweeted or liked a Tweet from these accounts during the election period

Wonder where those 677,775 people lived during 2016. Also wonder how many impressions that generated--677,775 twitter users translates to an even higher number of persons without a twitter account but who do manage to find their way to these tweets.
posted by Room 101 at 3:01 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Still better than Facebook, which has the obvious ability to contact everyone who saw or interacted with Russian propaganda, but buried it in their help center. Facebook's tool also only tells you if you followed a propaganda account, but they won't tell you if you interacted with any of their posts.

It's been pretty clear that far more happened on Facebook than Twitter. Facebook could easily show transparency here and proactively reach out to their users, but that would involve fessing up to what they let happen, so they're just not going to.

Speaking of which, Facebook now says they're going to survey their users to see what news sources people find trustworthy. I mean it's the internet, so I can't see how that would possibly go wrong.
posted by zachlipton at 3:04 PM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


The company I work for is a contractor that handles some Fed websites. We had to provide a detailed list this morning of what we would be working on so it could be approved as already in progress and we could actually stay on deadline with projects. Luckily the site I deal with got everything approved.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 3:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Keep this in mind when you hear Republicans blame Democrats for their inability to pass a budget.

Yes, Republicans burned up the 2017 51-vote budget resolution on their failed Obamacare repeal. And they burned up the 2018 51-vote budget resolution on their tax cuts for the rich.

But this is a new calendar year and Republicans are now entitled to another 51-vote budget resolution for 2019. Normally this budget is due by this coming April for fiscal year 2019 starting in October, but there is nothing in the rules preventing Republicans from passing a budget resolution today and using 51 votes to pass a budget bill. That bill could cover the budget for the remainder to 2018 and 2019.

There are two reasons Republicans aren't doing that. One is that budget resolutions normally take a couple of months to pull together and Republicans squandered all of their time on the tax cut bill bringing us to a short term deadline. But the second, and more important, is that they don't want to waste their only chance this year for a 51-vote bill on something as mundane as a real budget. As before they want to use their 51-vote opportunity for perhaps another chance at Obamacare repeal or welfare cuts or more tax cuts.

So this notion that Democrats are holding things up is false. Republicans have all the votes they need without Democrats if they were willing to do it via budget reconciliation -- which is exactly what budget reconciliation was designed for, not for radical remaking of the social safety net and tax cuts for the rich.
posted by JackFlash at 3:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [88 favorites]


In the event of a shutdown, non-essential fed workers will still serve a half day on Monday to wrap things up. Then the computers and phones completely shut off until they read on Buzzfeed that it's okay to go back to work again. Source: OMB Guidance

Non-essentials (basically appropriated agency workers) will be furloughed, and the idea that there are short-term loan programs for fed workers for those that need paychecks to make ends meet is awful.

I actually work at 18F and while all our work with our partner agency halts in an event of a shutdown, we are still scheduled to come in but to shift our work to in-house projects.
posted by xtine at 3:22 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Where does the rule about having only one 51-vote passage per year come from? I'm assuming this is actually a rule to skip or quash a filibuster, since 51 votes is supposed to be enough to pass legislation in general but you need more to overcome the filibuster, correct?

What's the actual rule we're talking about here?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Heitkamp just endorsed the House CR. Schumer isn't going to have the votes to filibuster even if he wanted to, once the bill is on the floor, the unreliable "Democrats" will cave, like always.

At least we may get CHIP funding, but Democrats are going to sell out the Dreamers to Steve King and Tom Cotton. They're just arguing now about when to do it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


What's the actual rule we're talking about here?

Budget “Reconciliation”.
posted by Coventry at 3:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


I assume that some swing-state Senators are caving because the "liberal" media is running with the lie that a shutdown will be the fault of Democrats.
posted by wintermind at 3:31 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Heitkamp just endorsed the House CR.

Now, now, she made it clear she's not endorsing it, merely voting for it.

(Because votes are just bookmarks.)
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:33 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


What's the actual rule we're talking about here?

It comes from the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. It was written to reduce the logjams on budgets that regularly occurred because of the filibuster. As we have seen, it has had mixed success, particularly when Republicans abuse it for things like Obamacare repeal and tax cuts for the rich.
posted by JackFlash at 3:35 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Three very red state Ds up for reelection in 2018 have said they'll vote for it. Heitkamp (ND), Donnelly (IN) and Manchin (WV). And McConnell doesn't even have all the Rs yet. Still way short of 60.
posted by chris24 at 3:36 PM on January 19, 2018


Louise Mensch is not, by a long distance, of the Left. Though it appears that she's not really so much a principled conservative either as a media-savvy self-promoter and/or rampant Milo-esque narcissist, depending on how generous one wants to be.

I'm still intrigued by the whole Mensch role in things - IIRC the timeline was that she left Heat Street but remained with News Corp taking Murdoch money for unspecified "digital projects" around the end of 2016 when she really started going all out on her new Twitter persona. The whole thing seems like that kind of propaganda that Putin reportedly employs where it's useful to keep some fake "enemies" around circulating conspiracy theories and such to add to the sense that no information can be trusted and to discredit legitimate enemies. I believe her whole thing started with an honest to god legit scoop at Heat Street too, beating other media well in advance about a FISA story, which is probably within the capabilities of the Murdoch organization to uncover and throw out there to build the initial trust for a propaganda operation like this. Idk I've been fascinated with her whole deal for a while, it seems like something that is usually way back behind the curtain, one of those shoddy little fake news generating outfits from the campaign, but I think her profile got too big when we were all scared and starving for any hope during late 16 and early 17 when it seemed like the fifth reich was around the corner (before we all sort of figured out that they were so incompetent we had a real good fighting chance).
posted by jason_steakums at 3:36 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Still hoping they don't even get to 50. Seems like a very real possibility even with those three Dems voting Y.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Wikipedia has a broader article on the United States budget process as well.
posted by XMLicious at 3:42 PM on January 19, 2018


If McConnell had the votes, they'd be voting right now. They're not, so he doesn't.

Only thing I've heard is that they'll vote at 10, on something entirely unspecified, which seems like the kind of thing you say when you have to say "we're still here" but don't have anything to say. The dead silence coming from Congressional reporters today has been quite spooky in comparison to what I'm used to.
posted by zachlipton at 3:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


They still need 60, right? Letting your few red state D's vote for it and still not hitting 60 might be a smart move, it gives them cover but if Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin can't put it over the top the R's still have to come back with something better to get D votes on board.
posted by jason_steakums at 3:44 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Cornyn just said there's "no solution" in sight to avert the shutdown. So clearly they don't have the votes as of now. Whether that's just a negotiating ploy beyond that, who knows.
posted by chris24 at 3:46 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


I think as long as the Rs can't get 50 votes on their own the Ds will hold firm. If the Republicans manage to get to 50 so that any shutdown can then be blamed solely on a Democratic filibuster we'll see a stampede for the exits.
posted by Justinian at 3:47 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


So they need 60 votes, they have 50 + 3 Dems?
posted by petebest at 3:51 PM on January 19, 2018


If the Republicans manage to get to 50 so that any shutdown can then be blamed solely on a Democratic filibuster we'll see a stampede for the exits.

This. When the break happens it wont be just those 3, they're just the ones ready to defy Schumer publicly before they even have to. It'll be 12-15. I'll believe Democrats will actually hold firm for Dreamers when it happens.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:52 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


So they need 60 votes, they have 50 + 3 Dems?

They don't have McCain (absent), Flake, Graham, Paul and maybe Lee.

So 46 Rs + 3 Ds right now.
posted by chris24 at 3:55 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


WSJ, Betsy McKay, CDC to Scale Back Work in Dozens of Foreign Countries Amid Funding Worries
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans to scale back or discontinue its work to prevent infectious-disease epidemics and other health threats in 39 foreign countries because it expects funding for the work to end, the agency told employees.

The CDC currently works in 49 countries as part of an initiative called the global health security agenda, to prevent, detect and respond to dangerous infectious disease threats. It helps expand surveillance for new viruses and​ ​drug-resistant bacteria, modernize laboratories to detect dangerous pathogens​and train workers who respond to epidemics.
This is yet another problem with the "America First" agenda. Working to stop epidemics abroad isn't just the right thing to do because we're not monstrous human beings; it keeps those epidemics from coming here. Trump can denigrate countries all day long, but we're still sharing a planet with them.
posted by zachlipton at 3:57 PM on January 19, 2018 [49 favorites]


The president probably thinks he can just issue a travel ban for all "disease-infested countries" and block germs from entering the US.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:02 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Senate votes at 10pm on the House CR.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:05 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


This is the cloture vote to end debate, it needs 60.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:06 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


The president probably thinks he can just issue a travel ban for all "disease-infested countries" and block germs from entering the US.

That's exactly what he's proposed in the past. He even said American health workers who contracted Ebola cannot be brought back into the US for treatment, that they "must suffer the consequences!"
posted by peeedro at 4:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


The president probably thinks he can just issue a travel ban for all "disease-infested countries" and block germs from entering the US.

He does. During the Ebola outbreak a couple years back he lost his shit on twitter and repeatedly and rabidly demanded exactly that, "a total and complete shutdown" of travel from Africa. Examples:

The U.S. cannot allow EBOLA infected people back. People that go to far away places to help out are great-but must suffer the consequences! [...] Ebola patient will be brought to the U.S. in a few days - now I know for sure that our leaders are incompetent. KEEP THEM OUT OF HERE! [...]The bigger problem with Ebola is all of the people coming into the U.S. from West Africa who may be infected with the disease. STOP FLIGHTS!

Et cetera. His handling of any major epidemic/pandemic would be very, very bad. Probably nation-endingly so.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


Et cetera. His handling of any major epidemic/pandemic would be very, very bad. Probably nation-endingly so.

Our big wet boy demands that his germophobia dictate the CDC's operations
posted by Existential Dread at 4:09 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Oh yeah, if he could push a button and construct a huge wall around the country, he definitely would. Why are we even envisioning a *Trump that wouldn't?

(Caveat: he may or may not realize that Canada is a separate country)
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Senate Periodicals [via Twitter]:
Senate VOTE at 10PM tonight on Motion to Invoke Cloture on Motion to Concur in the House amendment to the Senate amendment to H.R. 195

This reads like the clunky first draft of a Sondheim lyric.
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Senate Vote at 10PM tonight - corrected link.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:19 PM on January 19, 2018


They don't have McCain (absent), Flake, Graham, Paul and maybe Lee.

I forgot Rounds (R, SD) is a no right now too. so 45 Rs and 3 Ds.
posted by chris24 at 4:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Rounds recanted earlier, like 5mins before Flake said he would vote no. Hilariously, Rounds cited McConnell's promise for a vote on a full military funding bill in the next 4 weeks...right as Flake cited McConnell's broken promise for a vote on DACA from the tax cut vote.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:22 PM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


New development in Rand-Paul's-Fragile-Birdlike-Skeleton-Gate!

Dartunorro Clark, NBC News: Prosecutors reveal why Rand Paul was attacked by neighbor

Rene Boucher, 58, was charged on Friday with assaulting a member of Congress, a felony, months after his sneak attack on Sen. Rand Paul in November, according to officials.

Federal prosecutors said Boucher "had enough" after he witnessed Paul stack brush into a pile on his own lawn, but near Boucher's property. Boucher then ran onto Paul's property and tackled him.

posted by Rust Moranis at 4:23 PM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Government drops charges against 129 of the protesters arrested on inauguration day; it's still building cases against the remaining 59. The dropped charges are likely related to the trial of the first six, who were found not guilty of the felonies they were charged with.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


@CodyPom13 (DNC speechwriter): Delta Announcer at Cincinnati Gate: “FINAL CALL FOR ROBERT PORTMAN. PLEASE REPORT TO YOUR GATE, @senrobportman.”

Man yelling: “HE’S NOT HERE! HE’S BUSY SHUTTING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT!”
posted by zachlipton at 4:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [68 favorites]


Most rural conservatives (as I meant and know them) don't actually live in wilderness or really out in the country unless they're ranchers, and instead live in small towns or exurbs. Often older/retired, often having moved there from cities and blue states out of variably-veiled racism and xenophobia.

Right, I'm not disagreeing with this in particular, or the results or actions. I'm only disagreeing with the idea that everyone who thinks like this is motivated by a small, fearful or limited world view or otherwise afraid of the boogie monster.

A whole lot of these viewpoints or actions aren't necessarily rooted in fear at all, but active malice, greed, hatred or a number of other motivations. Sure, for some it's fear, or a mix of more than one thing. Even suburban conservatives can't be classified the way you're describing, because they'll do stuff like happily go out into the wilds to go recreationally/pragmatically/fearlessly hunt wild boar.

My point is is that this description not only underestimates and oversimplifies the generalization and stereotype, and it also helps paint an entire class of people as victims instead of people making conscious decisions for their own words or actions, or to vote for racist/sexist assholes.

I used to hold this hold this world view. I've found that it's too simplistic and too comforting and too easy, and not all that accurate.

Unfortunately some people really are just assholes and they're very secure and unafraid about it.
posted by loquacious at 4:28 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


People are way overthinking this shutdown/DACA thing.

Tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump ascending to the Presidency, and the Republican Party ascending to unified control of the Executive and Legislative branches of the Federal Government.

Tomorrow, there are two possible headlines. The first is that the Federal Government is shutting down because Donald Trump failed to make a deal. The second is that Donald Trump was able to negotiate a deal and save the nation from crisis.

Which of these headlines is hugely beneficial to the Republican Party? Which is hugely damaging to the Republican Party?

If President Trump and Congressional Republicans have any sense, this is the only question they need to ask. Whether they have any sense remains to be seen.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


(Also, Congressional Democrats.)
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I assume that some swing-state Senators are caving because the "liberal" media is running with the lie that a shutdown will be the fault of Democrats.

CNN's newly released poll implies that's what significant number of Americans believe. (And Fox is naturally tweeting this.)

• "Who holds responsibility for a government shutdown?" 31% Democrats; 26% Republicans; 21% Trump; 10% All; 12% None/Other/No Opinion ("Among Republicans, 62% would blame the Democrats in Congress, while 43% of Democrats would blame Republicans on Capitol Hill and 29% would blame Trump.")

• "Which is more important…avoiding a shutdown or continuing the DACA?" 56% Avoiding a shutdown; 34% Continuing the DACA ("Democrats break narrowly in favor of DACA -- 49% say it's more important vs. 42% who say avoiding a shutdown is the priority -- while majorities of both Republicans (75%) and independents (57%) say avoiding a shutdown is more important.")

In order to gain any political advantage out of this, the Dems must not only link the GOP and Trump in the minds of the public, but also pull in enough voters on board with the DACA.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:59 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


How the hell do you run that poll and list Republicans and Trump as separate options?
posted by chrchr at 5:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [37 favorites]


"statistics are like bikinis: what they show is important, what they hide is vital." - some stats guy. anyway, the MSM need to pay top dollar for some fucking math guys.
posted by j_curiouser at 5:13 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


How the hell do you run that poll and list Republicans and Trump as separate options?

A very good question.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll ties Trump and the GOP together in their survey question, which yields approximately the same results in terms of percentages but a very different political picture overall: "Forty-eight percent in the national survey say they’d blame Trump and the GOP, vs. 28 percent who’d blame the Democrats in Congress. An additional 18 percent would blame both equally. [...]

"Partisan gaps also disfavor the GOP in this survey, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates: Seventy-eight percent of Democrats say they’d blame Trump and the GOP caucus for a shutdown, while fewer Republicans, 66 percent, say they’d blame the Democrats in Congress. And women are 16 points more apt than men to say they'd blame Trump and the GOP."
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Blaming everyone equally is STILL predominately the problem of the GOP, since they're the incumbent in most at risk elections.
posted by codacorolla at 5:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Rereading Trump’s Inaugural Address, One Year Later
On January 20, 2017, Donald Trump took the oath of office and delivered an inaugural speech that is remembered mostly for being “dark,” as an instant media consensus proclaimed, or “some weird shit,” as George W. Bush remarked. The passage of a year’s time reveals that the speech was something else, too: impossibly grandiose. While those who oppose the president have debated whether he is criminally complicit in a foreign adversary’s election tampering, or whether he is mentally deranged, the country has lost sight of the standard of success Trump set for himself, which rests quite a bit higher than non-treasonous and dementia-free. Trump presented himself as a populist revolutionary who would reverse decades of decline. His speech reads now as a comic litany of failure.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:44 PM on January 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


Trump presented himself as a populist revolutionary who would reverse decades of decline. His speech reads now as a comic litany of failure.

posted by leotrotsky at 5:47 PM on January 19, 2018


My day: In the last thread, I described how my student intern mysteriously couldn't get a government security clearance. Well, she finally started work. Before she can enter a lab, she has to watch the mandatory safety *VCRs*. First, there was a video about what our Agency does, with lots of footage of cattle and pigs walking around or carved into slabs of meat; it was heartbreaking to hear the narrator extoll our thrifty virtues to the taxpayer. The next *VCR* was a safety video called "Spills Happen", which featured a bravura performance by an actress named Jane Pesci as the Chemical Hotline Operator*. Two more chemical spill *VCRs* gave us a panoramic tour of hairstyles and clothes of the 1980s. Then my unit leader came by to quietly describe to me what we were going to do if we shut down (pretty much the same as described by T D Strange). My student, under a tight deadline due to not getting her security clearance for almost a year, asked me if she'd be able to finish her project if we shut down. I said, worst case scenario, all of us would help her get the project done no matter what. Then I went to my lab, set up her project, transferred my cultures so they could survive up to 3 weeks without me, graded results for an experiment I might not be able to grade on Monday, and went home.

* I am happy to report that she appears to have had a satisfying career in theater besides being in this safety video.

posted by acrasis at 5:50 PM on January 19, 2018 [31 favorites]


Hmm.

@JakeSherman "HOUSE DEMS have noticed a caucus meeting for tomorrow morning....", with attached screencap from dems.gov for a members-only caucus meeting, tomorrow Jan 20th, at 10am. "TOPIC: Republicans' Continued Refusal to Work With Democrats to Keep the Government Open"
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:04 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Oh come ON, 2018 writers --
@pkcapitol Doug Jones: "as of right now I'll be voting for the CR."
He says CHIP is too big to pass up.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:06 PM on January 19, 2018


Vote is in one hour, at 10pm EST. CSPAN link. Chat is open.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:06 PM on January 19, 2018


I really think Schumer is releasing these votes. Time will tell.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Trolling:
Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Stabenow, Manchin Introduce Bill to Withhold Congressional Pay in the Case of a Government Shutdown
posted by Chrysostom at 6:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


"TOPIC: Republicans' Continued Refusal to Work With Democrats to Keep the Government Open"

What does one even say at a meeting like that?
Do the Dems all just show up and eat donuts and hold up a sign with a shrug emoji whenever they're called on to speak?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:09 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


If Schumer has any control and is actually releasing votes (massive skeptical side eye, because Dems have never shown that kind of whip control, ever), releasing dead man walking unicorn vote Doug Jones would be a total strategic waste.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


It's interesting to me that so many of the people who are dead certain Doug Jones can never get re-elected were dead certain he could not be elected in the first place.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:12 PM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


New Yorker, Adam Entous and Evan Osnos, Jared Kushner Is China’s Trump Card. This is a good piece, though frustrating vague on its most significant claims, with bits on the alarming number of people receiving intelligence briefings, Kushner's security clearance, and President-elect Trump blowing up the transition's plans for carefully returning calls from foreign leaders because Trump was "excited that important people were calling him." But one focus is Kushner mixing business with policy:
By the spring of 2017, investigators in charge of evaluating whether to give Kushner a permanent security clearance had new information to consider. U.S. intelligence agencies aggressively target Chinese government communications, including Cui’s reports to Beijing about his meetings in the United States.

According to current and former officials briefed on U.S. intelligence about Chinese communications, Chinese officials said that Cui and Kushner, in meetings to prepare for the summit at Mar-a-Lago, discussed Kushner’s business interests along with policy. Some intelligence officials became concerned that the Chinese government was seeking to use business inducements to influence Kushner’s views. The intelligence wasn’t conclusive, according to those briefed on the matter. “I never saw any indication that it was successful,” a former senior official said, of Chinese efforts to compromise Kushner. The Chinese could have mischaracterized their discussions with Kushner. But the intelligence reports triggered alarms that Chinese officials were attempting to exploit Kushner’s close relationship with the President, which could yield benefits over time. “They’re in it for the long haul,” the former official said. (A spokesman for Kushner said, “There was never a time—never—that Mr. Kushner spoke to any foreign officials, in the campaign, transition, and in the Administration, about any personal or family business. He was scrupulous in this regard.”)
...
Other plans remained unchanged. In November, Kushner travelled to China as part of the President’s delegation for a summit with Xi Jinping. In Beijing, Kushner had lunch at the home of Wendi Murdoch, an occasion that went unmentioned in briefings and public schedules. (A White House spokesman said that Kushner attended the lunch “in a personal capacity,” after the President’s official business was complete.) Kushner saw no reason to curtail their friendship. In the seven months since Kushner’s meeting with Priestap, Wendi Murdoch had done nothing that raised his suspicions, according to a person close to Kushner. “Why do I have more of a risk of telling her state secrets than anyone else?” Kushner asked recently. “Either I’m qualified to handle state secrets or I’m not qualified to handle state secrets. I think I understand my responsibilities.”

In December, U.S. intelligence agencies briefed a wider circle of officials, saying that “a member of the president’s family” was being targeted by a Chinese influence operation, echoing earlier warnings. It was not clear if that family member was Kushner or someone else.
The article also features Jared being briefed by FBI counterintelligence that he's one of the world's top intelligence targets, and Jared walking away unalarmed because he knows what he's doing since New York real estate is not "a baby’s business".
posted by zachlipton at 6:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Stabenow, Manchin Introduce Bill to Withhold Congressional Pay in the Case of a Government Shutdown

Things like this are a terrible idea and only serve to further entrench Congress as a bastion of wealth of privilege. Because the wealthy don't need their Congressional salaries.
posted by Justinian at 6:16 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Stabenow, Manchin Introduce Bill to Withhold Congressional Pay in the Case of a Government Shutdown

<3 Claire.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:17 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


I mean, I guess I'd prefer that a non-sexual predator vote for this bullshit rather than a sexual predator, but after the whole base sent bags of cash and postcards all the way to Alabama, the first thing Doug does is give DACA the finger? Let that be a lesson to me.

(I'm still wearing my Beto for Texas tshirt in Michigan, though, and you can't stop me.)
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


It's interesting to me that so many of the people who are dead certain Doug Jones can never get re-elected were dead certain he could not be elected in the first place.

If he faces reelection against a child molester again, sure, but that seems far fetched even for these writers. Luther Strange would've won by double digits.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I'm not sure McCaskill deserves hearts for an unconstitutional publicity stunt.

See the 27th Amendment to the US Constitution. tl;dr, you can't change the pay of Congresspeople until after the next Congress is seated. So that the people have a chance to vote out assholes trying to increase their own pay too greedily.
posted by Justinian at 6:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Which of these headlines is hugely beneficial to the Republican Party? Which is hugely damaging to the Republican Party?

Sah Hallo to my le'el frien'!
(We call it Trump's Razor. It is a powerful oracle, indeed)
posted by petebest at 6:25 PM on January 19, 2018


Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Stabenow, Manchin Introduce Bill to Withhold Congressional Pay in the Case of a Government Shutdown

Things like this are a terrible idea and only serve to further entrench Congress as a bastion of wealth of privilege. Because the wealthy don't need their Congressional salaries.


If they were really serious they would also freeze all their assets. But no they have to ensure they hurt people who actually depend on wages rather than investments.
posted by srboisvert at 6:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Seeing more and more rumors they'll try to vote for a three-week CR (without a DACA deal included), though it's unclear if there are 60 votes for that (Graham says he will vote for it). Which doesn't really accomplish anything and we'd just get to have this exact same fight again in three weeks. That's really a compelling reason to shut the government down now: if we're going to keep having the same fight, why put it off?

But a three-week deal would mean Trump and friends get to go to Davos, the House gets its vacation, Dreamers live in fear, everyone looks like an idiot, and we restock our liquor cabinets and realize the same intractable problems are still there. The actual way out of this is to have clean votes on three things that have majority bipartisan support (and widespread public support in polls): keeping the government open; the Durbin/Graham DACA/immigration deal; and CHIP re-authorization. But since McConnell and Ryan won't allow that to happen, and Trump is too busy contradicting his own administration to know what he wants, nothing will change.

Anyway, if Trump doesn't make it to his $250,000/couple grift session, do the donors get refunds?
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Yo, can I just love my one democratic Senator for her trolling?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


And we’re 3 weeks closer to the debt ceiling. Every day the fight is delayed is a Democratic loss. When the debt ceiling hits, that’s it, game over, Democrats have to agree to whatever Mitch McConnell proposes at that point.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:33 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I don't expect a poison pill in the debt ceiling hike. That would royally piss off the oligarch class and as we saw with the tax bill the oligarch class is still calling the shots in Congress even if the nazi white nationalist branch are the ones who won the white house.
posted by Justinian at 6:40 PM on January 19, 2018


What possible incentive will Repubs have to negotiate over the next three weeks that they don't have now? Especially since Trump's just going to drop more grenades into anything the parties do manage to come up with. Then again, the Republicans really are the Heath Ledger Joker in this situation, and you cannot bargain with irrational people who lack any sense of self-preservation. They either honestly believe that the gerrymander and public gullibility lend them total impunity (and they may well be right), or they just flat-out don't give a fuck.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


See the 27th Amendment to the US Constitution. tl;dr, you can't change the pay of Congresspeople until after the next Congress is seated.

It's not changing pay. It's withholding pay, just like the rest of federal workers.
posted by JackFlash at 6:53 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


@igorbobic: Marc Short says GOP is still short votes on House-passed CR
posted by Chrysostom at 6:57 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


It's not changing pay. It's withholding pay, just like the rest of federal workers.

No. It is not a foregone conclusion that the federal workers who have to continue to work during a government shutdown will be paid. That has to be explicitly authorized by congress when they authorize new funding for the government. In times past government employees who have worked without pay have been paid for their time, but it is not automatic. Their pay is not 'being withheld', they are working for the government hoping that congress will eventually decide to pay them. There are absolutely no guarantees. I know that paying them is an established norm. Please see the last year's history on established norms.
posted by Quonab at 7:04 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


Yes, but we are talking about the 27th Amendment. Nothing prevents withholding pay.
posted by JackFlash at 7:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Congressional pay is a lark for most of the millionares there, not many of them rely on the 185k or whatever they make these days to stay afloat. Withholding, docking, lowering their pay is not going to change their incentives any.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Someone had suggested a requirement that Congress work every day if the government is shut down. Be there all day, seven days a week.

If we're blue skying this kind of stuff, that seems more likely to bug these guys than losing a week or two of salary.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


PBS NewsHour's Lisa Desjardins‏ @LisaDNews reports :
COONS just gave a long readout of the situation:

- Dems want at least agreement on path forward/talks on DACA and other issues
- But leaders can't agree
- So Dems won't support 3-wk CR
- Shutdown happening
- And Big floor speeches coming soon.
And #TrumpShutdown is trending with 411,000 tweets.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


I have #SchumerShutdown as my top hashtag. But I am currently in a very red location.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:17 PM on January 19, 2018


I know much is made of “The Writers,” but having the Republican-controlled government shut down at the exact second of the one year anniversary of the Trump presidency sure is something.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [83 favorites]


There's a description for it too: "'No deal' despite meeting between Trump and Democratic leader Schumer"

But none for #TrumpShutdown. Goddammit @jack.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:19 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Voting now (60 votes required) on cloture on the House-passed CR. Doesn't look like they have the votes. And nobody has a plan for what comes next.
posted by zachlipton at 7:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Cloture fails.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Vote is open, 5 Dem Yes - Heitkamp, Jones, Manchin, McCaskill, Donnelly.

3 Rep No's - Lee, Paul, Graham. Flake hasn't voted unless I missed it.

edit - Just kidding Flake did vote no.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:27 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


"You don't have the votes"

(Are we still doing Hamilton?)
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:28 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


46 R votes kinda kills the Dems are shutting us down BS.
posted by chris24 at 7:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


Oh good, now we get to see how a non-administration manages a shutdown.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:31 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


I think hell just froze over: Flake stopped flapping his gums and did a single fucking marginally useful thing.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:31 PM on January 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


Awesome, wow, do you have a clue what happens now? Because I've seen zero plan besides "everyone makes angry speeches."
posted by zachlipton at 7:33 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Vote is over, McConnell only one outstanding for I assume procedural reasons. McCain isn't there. 50 Yes - 48 No.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:33 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Not a good look, Trump Whines: Shutdown Fight Could Make Me Miss ‘My Party’:
On the eve of a possible government shutdown, President Donald Trump privately vented frustrations that the political impasse could possibly keep him from attending a glitzy inauguration anniversary bash and fundraiser set for Saturday at his Florida getaway Mar-a-Lago.

Two sources close to the president, one a White House official and the other a longtime confidant, told The Daily Beast how excited he was for the event and relayed his growing concern that the potential failure to strike a deal to keep the federal government open could keep him from “my party,” as the president has said.
posted by peeedro at 7:35 PM on January 19, 2018 [49 favorites]


So wait, is there anarchy in the streets? I was here for anarchy in the streets.
posted by The Whelk at 7:35 PM on January 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


zach: everyone makes angry speeches.

Then they wait for the snap polling over the next few days and whoever gets the short stick caves in.
posted by Justinian at 7:36 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Can they, this time? I think it's an open question.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:37 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


@LisaMascaro: (LA Times)
Per Dem @SenBlumenthal :
"There was virtually a deal, a comprehensive agreement between Chuck Schumer & the president, and he walked away from it after he talked to his hard right."

@ThePlumLineGS: (WaPo)
Yup. The story here is that Team Stephen Miller doesn't actually want a deal protecting the Dreamers, and they're manipulating Trump into believing that anything that can *actually pass the Senate* betrays Trump's base, to prevent any resolution.
posted by chris24 at 7:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [42 favorites]


NYTimes is running it as “Senate Democrats Block Bill to Keep Government Open Past Midnight; Shutdown Looms”, so at least one outlet is letting it fall on the Dems.
posted by Bovine Love at 7:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


So, this is why electing a white nationalist President was bad. Huh. Who knew
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:40 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


No sadness for trump though, he had another option in this whole debacle.

He could have done his fucking job.
posted by mrgoat at 7:40 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


so at least one outlet is letting it fall on the Dems.

yeah but it's the quisling NYT so who's surprised?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 7:41 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


I have #SchumerShutdown as my top hashtag. But I am currently in a very red location.

Hamilton68 shows that while #releasethememo is their top hashtag of the past 48 hours among Russian bot accounts, #schumershutdown and #shumershutdown are rising among trending hashtags.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:41 PM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


The FBI recently opened an inquiry into Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, two US officials told CNN, as he fights an allegation of blackmail and faces calls to resign just a year into his job.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Anyway the women’s March is tomorrow, i’ll With the contingent with these signs, so if you could update me to the nearest barricade that would be neat.
posted by The Whelk at 7:45 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]



The FBI recently opened an inquiry into Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, two US officials told CNN, as he fights an allegation of blackmail and faces calls to resign just a year into his job.


lol LOL LOL lol LOL I am so happy
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:45 PM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


"Now witness the impotence of this fully non-operational government!"
posted by uosuaq at 7:48 PM on January 19, 2018 [54 favorites]


Yep. The NYT is hammering this on the Democrats.
Democrats pushing the government toward a shutdown can take solace in the rapid-fire news cycles of the last year: It may be forgotten by November.
Nobody is falling for McConnell doesn't have 50 votes because he had 50 votes on cloture. Democrats blocked cloture. This is going to be the Democrats' shut down. People who wanted this be happy about it because this is a giant own goal by the Democrats.

IMHO Schumer should have either had a real whip count and pointed out to the caucus that giving McConnell 50 is hanging themselves or he should have pushed cloture through then let McConnell scrape together the 50. Then let the Democrats who voted yes handle the fallout in their own states.
posted by Talez at 7:48 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Like, you imitate the strategy because you've seen it work but you don't know why it works or how to implement it so that it doesn't bite you in the ass. This is why shtudown for DACA was a poison pill to begin with. The Democrats played with fire but they decided to smother themselves with gasoline first.
posted by Talez at 7:50 PM on January 19, 2018


Rep. Dana Rohrabacher just showed up in the Senate chamber, despite not even going to that school, because I guess Putin didn't feel adequately represented or something?
posted by zachlipton at 7:53 PM on January 19, 2018 [21 favorites]


Isn’t it basically accurate to say that Stephen Miller, Tom Cotton, and co. are holding the federal government hostage because the hardliners have the child emperor’s ear?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:53 PM on January 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


Well, FWIW, I saw that Blumenthal said Schumer had Trump agreeing to a deal, but then Miller et al talked him back out of it.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:56 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


If I was a Republican media person I would be running my ass to any major MSM news network to get said ass on the TV. The talking points are that we got it through the House, we gave them long term CHIP funding, they had 50 in the Senate, Schumer blocked cloture, Democrats are throwing poor people under the bus for illegals, and that when poor people wake up and their EBT and Medicaid cards don't work they should thank Mr Schumer for that one.
posted by Talez at 7:58 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Anyway the domestic side of the NYT is almost nakedly collaborative sooo? I wouldn’t be surprised if there are neonazi trumpist loyalties in the top mangment like we’ve seen in other media companies.
posted by The Whelk at 7:59 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


I have #SchumerShutdown as my top hashtag. But I am currently in a very red location.

This is clearly the #ShitholeShutdown.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:59 PM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Well, notwithstanding the NYT:

1. McConnell could have used simple budget reconciliation - which was designed for this specific situation - to pass it with 51 votes. But he didn’t want to, because he wanted to save that ploy for passing unpopular legislation down the road.

...and...

2) He couldn’t even get his own caucus to fully line up behind this vote.

There will be a lot of spinning, but the majority of Americans know the Republicans control all branches of government, and that this shutdown is yet more proof they can’t govern worth shit.
posted by darkstar at 8:02 PM on January 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


And the New York Times’ headline is “Senate Democrats Kill Bill to Keep Government Open Past Midnight” because the New York Times aspires to fake news.

It's not fake news. McConnell had 51 to keep it open. Democrats killed it on the cloture vote.

1. McConnell could have used simple budget reconciliation - which was designed for this specific situation - to pass it with 51 votes. But he didn’t want to, because he wanted to save that ploy for passing unpopular legislation down the road.

Oh come on. You can't reasonably expect budget reconciliation to be burned on a CR. There are actually important procedural things that need to be put into those bills along with the shit sandwich.
posted by Talez at 8:05 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Democrats aren't going to get anywhere by trying to play for the NYT's approval. That's a loss. It only wastes time. Chalk it up as a reliably unhelpful actor and move on, 'cause they aren't gonna come around until there's a massive sea change and the NYT wants to keep up.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:05 PM on January 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


@SabrinaSiddiqui: CORKER tells reporters he’s confident there will be NO shutdown. Says negotiations underway for shorter-term CR than House bill.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:06 PM on January 19, 2018


Well, the Handmaid’s Tale also had the new Congress actually passing legislation.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:06 PM on January 19, 2018


Corker is now running around telling people that they're talking about a CR that brings us to early February, but they're 3-4 days apart on when it would end.
posted by zachlipton at 8:06 PM on January 19, 2018


Fucking Maggie Haberman, yeah, the NYT is the problem... what the fuck?

Down to the Wire, Trump Reached Out to Schumer
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR and MAGGIE HABERMAN 8:29 PM ET
Giving his staff almost no notice, President Trump invited Senator Chuck Schumer to a last-ditch, one-on-one negotiating session in the Oval Office. It went nowhere.

Let’s do it this way:

Down to the wire, Darth Vader reached out to Ben Kenobi. It went nowhere.
posted by valkane at 8:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


One reason you're overlooking for the Dems here, Talez, is that they need to show they can't be bullied (anymore). The Republicans shut down the government for far less. If one side of a negotiation has shown they are batshit crazy and will torch the place while the other side has shown they will back down from any hint of bad press the second party will get continually steamrolled.

This is Schumer showing that they can't be steamrolled.
posted by Justinian at 8:07 PM on January 19, 2018 [74 favorites]


One interesting result of a shutdown would be that there would then be no active government to not give Mulvaney any funding for the CFPB...
posted by darkstar at 8:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Today's win for me was the discussion taking place in the comments of my Trumpist house Rep's facebook post about the Democrats working to shut down the government. Not a SINGLE comment agreed with him, they ALL pointed out the GOP has full control of the government. My comment was surprisingly not only not deleted, but liked a bunch and I got into a whole thread explaining how budget reconciliation and continuing resolutions work and how if the GOP was competent they could have entirely avoided this.

So I'm not convinced the average person is going to buy the official GOP line.
posted by threeturtles at 8:09 PM on January 19, 2018 [45 favorites]


If the replies to Senators Toomey and Casey are any indication, no one is buying the official GOP line.
posted by mcduff at 8:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


One reason you're overlooking for the Dems here, Talez, is that they need to show they can't be bullied (anymore). The Republicans shut down the government for far less. If one side of a negotiation has shown they are batshit crazy and will torch the place while the other side has shown they will back down from any hint of bad press they will get continually steamrolled.

You can think that but all the bravado in the world isn't going to stop the Republicans making massive amounts of political hay pitting poor citizens vs illegal (but innocent) kids.

Schumer procedurally killed an otherwise passing bill to keep the government open. The optics of that are so ridiculously bad.
posted by Talez at 8:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Rs shut it down in 2013 in an idiotic and quixotic attempt to repeal Obamacare. And then took the House and Senate 10 months later. So even if you think it was an own goal, it doesn’t fucking matter for November.

But it’s not an own goal, because it fires up the base, will motivate expanded Latino turnout, and is the fucking right thing to do. We’re not doing this in a stupid quest for an unpopular goal like Cruz was, we’re doing to pass something that has 80% support.

Plus the public will never really buy the Ds are taking healthcare away from kids. Everyone not an idiot or vile partisan knows Ds are the party that wants more health insurance. And everybody who might possibly not vote R knows Trump is an idiot, bad negotiator and terrible leader. And that Rs are the shutdown party who can’t govern, don’t like government.

I’ll take the own goal risk. It won’t cost us anybody we would have ever got the vote of and will gain us votes while doing the moral thing.
posted by chris24 at 8:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [78 favorites]


It's an easy slogan for Democrats. "The deal-maker couldn't make a deal." "The guys who control the whole government can't govern."

They just have to, you know, stay on message.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


Schumer procedurally killed an otherwise passing bill to keep the government open. The optics of that are so ridiculously bad.

IIRC, Schumer already gave them an extension on their final paper. It's time for the GOP to pull an all-nighter and deliver what they promised last time they came to office hours and cried that they needed more time.

They had more time. GOP, stop crying and do your damned work. No more CRs
posted by mikelieman at 8:13 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


Yeah, I mean the story is the first shut-down was republicans trying to take something good away, and this second shut down is republicans trying to stop something good. Hey, Haberman, give me a call.
posted by valkane at 8:13 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Escher's washbasin
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


I am totally comfortable with the idea that the Senate Democrats "blocked and killed and stomped and shut down" (or whatever shitty slanted verbs you like) this thing so as to prevent the GOP from letting Actual Nazi Stephen Miller control immigration policy. I would be fine if they literally burned down the Capitol in service of this goal.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [67 favorites]


> Democrats aren't going to get anywhere by trying to play for the NYT's approval.

Another way to put it is that if they can't weather the storm of some unfriendly headlines in the NYT, they're not going to be of any use going forward when they have to take even more difficult stands. I actually want them to take a public beating on this to see if they have the resolve to stand by their decision to use every by of leverage they have. If they can't stand up for Dreamers against a president and party with sub-gonorrheal approval levels, we have much bigger problems to deal with.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:14 PM on January 19, 2018 [35 favorites]


Schumer procedurally killed an otherwise passing bill to keep the government open.

To protect the Dreamers. A position which 79% of Americans support (including a majority of Republicans), and which McConnell and Ryan and Trump all promised to do. Which Trump blew up a bipartisan deal for by being a racist asshole.

The optics of that are so ridiculously bad.

The optics are 10x worse when you show your (currently energized as hell) base that you fold under pressure and wont stand up for your principles.

This is all win for the Democrats.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [93 favorites]


Actual Nazi Stephen Miller

at this point do I even need to go into what is wrong with this statement?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 8:16 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


You can't reasonably expect budget reconciliation to be burned on a CR. There are actually important procedural things that need to be put into those bills along with the shit sandwich.

Why not? Republicans were willing to burn the 2017 budget reconciliation on the single subject of Obamacare repeal. There was not one word in the bill regarding the 2017 budget. In fact, the 2017 fiscal year expired just two days after their final attempt at the 2017 reconciliation bill.

Republicans shouldn't be able to deflect blame when they fail to pass a budget using 51 votes. The option is still there. They could pass it tomorrow.
posted by JackFlash at 8:17 PM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Schumer procedurally killed an otherwise passing bill to keep the government open. The optics of that are so ridiculously bad.

Unless you are accepting that the Dreamers are fucked and are all going to be deported there is going to be a shutdown. The only question is when. Would the Republicans' framing be different if the Democrats' shut it down in a month rather than today?
posted by Justinian at 8:17 PM on January 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


The federal courts will keep operating til February 9th. And in case you were worried for patent attorneys: the Patent and Trademark Office will also continue to operate normally for a few weeks.
posted by jedicus at 8:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


FWIW, the WP headline is:

Government barrels toward shutdown as Senate vote fails -- Several Republicans join Democrats in voting to block short-term bill

Which seems pretty accurate.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:22 PM on January 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


I've got to say, it's a weird day when "the President of the United States told the porn star he was having an affair with that he hopes all sharks die" barely registers.
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on January 19, 2018 [137 favorites]


The Democrats played with fire but they decided to smother themselves with gasoline first.

The Republicans shut down the government in 2013 because they didn't want to fund health care for non-white people. This gasoline doesn't stick to Republicans, and never will, as long as the media's standard is literally that Republicans can demand whatever they want unless they totally fuck themselves beyond the point where a single Democratic vote could matter.
posted by mubba at 8:23 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Daily Beast, Indira Marquez, I’m a Dreamer. This Shutdown Debate Has Filled Me With Dread.:
The cruel truth is that I have an expiration date. I can’t eagerly plan for my future like other teenagers. Instead, without DACA, I have to prepare to live without the ability to drive, get health insurance, or work and pay for my college tuition. And without a path toward citizenship I now have to prepare for the real possibility that I could face detention and deportation.

I could face deportation for something as small as a traffic ticket, or, because I live in Texas, any chance encounter with a police officer under my state’s Senate Bill 4.

This is definitely not how I had hoped to spend my senior year of high school. It's not how thousands of immigrant youth had planned to live their lives: living in limbo.
...
When the Senate Majority Leader said on Thursday night that “there is no urgency for a DACA fix,” I wished I could scream across the screen so that he could hear my story, and the story of the thousands of young people like me, who live knowing that everyday we live without the Dream Act is another day that we will live with uncertainty, anguish, and without protections.
posted by zachlipton at 8:24 PM on January 19, 2018 [48 favorites]


The ONLY people who are going to believe this is the Democrats' fault are the people who will close their eyes and stick their fingers in their ears when presented with any kind of countering details. Yes, those people exist. No, there was never any hope of reaching them, anyway.

Dems can't get anywhere playing for them. They can't get anywhere trying to change the minds of people dumb enough and/or shitty enough to vote for Donald Trump. As evidence, I present the entirety of last year and the election before it. At some point, Democrats have to say screw the NYT and do what's right. This is that moment.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


Not just their voters, 95% of Americans on CHIP, 80% on DACA.

@JamilSmith: (HuffPo, LAT)
One might think that the shutdown presents a dilemma for @TheDemocrats in one way: the party prides itself on showing that government works. But I’d argue that this is effective governance. They aren’t obstructing a @POTUS; they’re fighting for the policies their voters demand.
posted by chris24 at 8:27 PM on January 19, 2018 [47 favorites]


95% for CHIP? That's ridiculously high.

like, did some people think 'potato chips'? Oh god, some people thought 'potato chips'.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


You guys are more optimistic than me. I don't trust the American electorate further than I can throw them.
posted by Talez at 8:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


The ONLY people who are going to believe this is the Democrats' fault are the people who will close their eyes and stick their fingers in their ears when presented with any kind of countering details.

I'm pretty sure Talez is not that kind of person, so that doesn't seem to be true.
posted by Coventry at 8:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I mean, let's see what happens, and then either Talez will be right, or other people? Only way we find out is to find out.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:32 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Yeah, I would like to hope we’re at the point where someone can stand up and say “Let’s be nice to everyone” and the Republicans can say “fuck you” and the New York Times can just be ignored. I would like to hope.

The thing that makes me weep is the fact that all the while the republicans demonize the NYT and yet, seemingly, they are in lockstep.

It makes me wonder about the goals of corporate america.
posted by valkane at 8:35 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


The American electorate is largely stupid so they may well blame the Democrats. I have no idea. Sometimes you do things even though they are unpopular because you have important reasons besides how it appears.
posted by Justinian at 8:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


It makes me wonder about the goals of corporate america.

At times like these, I find great comfort in the words of Frank Zappa. "The Meek Shall Inherit Nothing" is a masterwork, and I truly wonder if the world wouldn't be a -- not necessarily better place but a more honest place if Thing-Fish was actually produced on broadway.
You say yer life's a bum deal
'N yer up against the wall...
Well, people, you ain't even got no
Deal at all
'Cause what they do
In Washington
They just takes care
of NUMBER ONE
An' NUMBER ONE ain't YOU
You ain't even NUMBER TWO
posted by mikelieman at 8:41 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Just to show how fucked up the Times is... the Washington Deputy Editor jumped in to call out Dan Pfeiffer for tweeting that NYT should do better in the headline on this.

@jonathanweisman:
Own it, Dan. The Democrats held together and voted no. They stopped the CR. If every Republican had voted yes, they still would have stopped the CR.

- -

So we’ll ignore that 5 Ds voted for it, but pretend that Rs got their whole caucus.
posted by chris24 at 8:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Jennifer Rubin (I know...) at WaPo on tonight’s latest events:
There are several aspects worth noting at this late hour. First, although Schumer lost five Democrats (who voted to proceed), McConnell remarkably lost four votes, making it that much harder to pin the shutdown on Democrats. The degree to which the hard-line anti-immigration crowd has divided the GOP is remarkable.

Second, to put on my former labor lawyer hat, McConnell’s lack of urgency today was stunning. This situation is akin to a labor contract negotiation leading up to a strike deadline. Not to have a single joint meeting with Democrats and the president or exchange any proposals in the final day represents a stunning level of irresponsibility. Republicans control both houses and the White House; not to make every effort to initiate talks and find a solution suggests they no longer know how to cut deals.

Finally, having a self-described dealmaker in the Oval Office was worthless, since the dealmaker is totally incapable of mastering policy details, expressing a policy preference (and sticking with it for more than an hour) and moving both sides to conclusion. This is what comes from electing someone entirely in over his head. It did not help that Trump reportedly whined to staff about missing his party at Mar-a-Lago. His reputation as a man-child remains intact.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:43 PM on January 19, 2018 [65 favorites]


Everyone is saying "Republicans take the blame" or "Democrats take the blame" but not "Democrats take the credit".
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 8:48 PM on January 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


Can we admit the New York Times is a Republican propaganda outlet yet? If not, how many times do they have to parrot Republican talking points before we can? I need an exact number, and it must be greater than...let me check...76,887.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:49 PM on January 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


You guys are more optimistic than me. I don't trust the American electorate further than I can throw them.

Neither do I. But if the American electorate is largely stupid, gullible, and untrustworthy, then it is very foolish indeed to base your decisions on trying to predict what will please and placate them.

If you're going to be blamed and misrepresented regardless of what you do, then you might as well stand for something and act in ways that represent your values.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:50 PM on January 19, 2018 [42 favorites]


I think of the NYT as a newspaper for the rich. There's a *lot* of overlap, sure, but they're still not Fox News.
posted by uosuaq at 8:52 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Only because the NYT still wants you to think they feel bad about it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


I’ll take the own goal risk.

It's fascinating to me that neither "Dems bad" or "Repubs fail" is talking about government or politics.

We don't even need politics for what happens - we don't need it for how we got here. It's Chuck Todd all the way down, and nothing else "plays" except in relation to how it plays in the corporate news.

NYT is Fox is t_d and back again. Where's my end-to-end encrypted, fully anonymous social media app already.
posted by petebest at 8:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


No, the Wall Street Journal was the newspaper for the rich. the New York Times was the newspaper for the smart. But then, something happened.......
posted by valkane at 8:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]




I have #SchumerShutdown as my top hashtag. But I am currently in a very red location.

Here in Western Oregon, it's #TrumpShutdown by a landslide, and no Schumers or Shumers anywhere on the list. I'm sure it's different in St. Petersburg though.
posted by msalt at 8:58 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I don't see why the MAGA-hat crowd should get upset about a government shutdown anyway -- HUD and EPA get heavily furloughed; vets and Justice get largely left alone; "deconstructing the administrative state" in other words.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:59 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Whelp. Shut it down.

(I'll undermine that by saying technically, the government can stay open for a bit before Mulvaney sends the official shutdown memo if it looks like there's going to be a deal. Everyone's still talking.)
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on January 19, 2018


You know, when Trump has to file bankruptcy for the United States, everyone is gonna have to slap themselves in the forehead and say “I never saw this coming!”
posted by valkane at 9:00 PM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Yup, stand for things and take credit. Like so --

@laurenegambino Sen. Bob Casey - Democrat of Pennsylvania: “I was not elected to genuflect to the Freedom Caucus.”

Also Casey:
It’s diabolical the way Republicans are using the CHIP program as a weapon instead of passing the reauthorization back when it expired in September. They didn’t do a damn thing for kids for all these months, over 100 days and now all of the sudden they pretend like they care. I think Pennsylvanians see through this incredibly cynical move and would rather see us work together on a bipartisan compromise.
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:00 PM on January 19, 2018 [71 favorites]


I hope the next trender is #TrumpStepdown.
posted by glonous keming at 9:00 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'll suspend judgement on the NYT until they start 2 or 3 more failed wars.
posted by benzenedream at 9:02 PM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


Kinda sums it up that for once there seems to be actual debate on the Senate floor and of course it's not on the record and we're watching on mute

(for people not watching the CSPAN feed, Lindsey Graham, along with Schumer, seem to be leading a large discussion of Senators of both parties. McConnell is standing statue-like at his podium where he's been for almost 2 hours)
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:06 PM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


NYT is Fox is t_d and back again. Where's my end-to-end encrypted, fully anonymous social media app already.

Man, I remember being an early adopter of PGP/GPG for email and thinking, "If this is how adoption is going to go, we're all fucked"

And here we are. /me drinks more much whisky
posted by mikelieman at 9:06 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


No, the Wall Street Journal was the newspaper for the rich. the New York Times was the newspaper for the smart. But then, something happened.......

no the NYT is the mouthpiece of the Establishment, always has been. Like one of my research projects was newspaper history and hoo boy the Times was sure on the leading edge of racism science, Why Irish Are Animals, and Our Solemn Christian Duty To Subjugate The Natives. Even in the 30s it was "Hitler, just misunderstood!" It's the editorial voice of the powers that be.
posted by The Whelk at 9:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [71 favorites]


#Shrumpdown?
posted by uosuaq at 9:08 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


(for people not watching the CSPAN feed, Lindsey Graham, along with Schumer, seem to be leading a large discussion of Senators of both parties. McConnell is standing statue-like at his podium where he's been for almost 2 hours)

Are they talking like those folks on West Wing? Or Veep? Or The Thick of it?

Yeah, didn’t think so.
posted by valkane at 9:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


McConnell is standing statue-like at his podium where he's been for almost 2 hours

For the best, surely.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:11 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Also, really unclear why Graham is the one negotiating here, and why Democrats should trust he can deliver one vote for anything they agreed on, other than maybe Flake. McConnell's total non-involvement is the story to me. Graham is wasting everyone's effort unless he has some unseen buy-in from McConnell to whip what would be an extremely unpopular deal for the Tom Cotton wing. And there looks to be a lot more Tom Cottons than Lindsey Grahams.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:12 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Schumer talking to McConnell now, something afoot.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:15 PM on January 19, 2018


We all remember that Trump is the one who initially killed DACA right? Not even through some handwavy passive shit like "letting funding expire" like what happened with CHIP. He actively killed it. So this shit is all on him and the GOP. They created this mess through their racism and lack of humanity. They can eat it. Both programs have broad support, so besides being racist and inhumane they're also undemocratic. It's cartoonishly evil to try this I'll shoot one hostage you pick bullshit, but then Trump and the GOP are fucking cartoons so... None of them is fit to govern a local school board let alone the country.
posted by supercrayon at 9:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [62 favorites]


I dunno. If there's some way Schumer could help Graham undercut McConnell by making it look like Graham saved the deal--presumably while also gaining wins for the Democrats--there might be some tiny mileage there? It's not like all the Republicans actually hate what the Dems are pushing for. A lot of them are probably dreading the consequences of this.

If Republicans in the Senate remembers McConnell bringing them to the brink like this and Graham "saving" it... I dunno. I have no illusions about Graham growing or even borrowing any kind of spine, but... meh.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:16 PM on January 19, 2018


The vote is officially over after 2 hours and 3 minutes (McConnell voted no, as is typical for leaders in such situations, because you have to vote on the losing side to make a motion to reconsider). There's no deal.
posted by zachlipton at 9:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Welp. That was anti-climactic. McConnell votes no. Debate ends with no deal. Shutdown is on.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:18 PM on January 19, 2018


You’re right, the whelk. I didn’t do my homework.
posted by valkane at 9:18 PM on January 19, 2018


McConnell is (predictably) grandstanding and blaming the Democrats.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:18 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


So, while the American OS is offline, can we try and dual-boot a new system? I think Canada has an ol' floppy drive with some parliamentary democracy on it.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 9:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [61 favorites]


I’ve got a copy of Zap Rowsdower 4.0 if you wanna give it a shot.
posted by valkane at 9:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Sen. Schumer speaking now. Helpfully reminding McConnell that it’s the head of his party sitting in the White House that caused all of this mess. He’s also striking a “calmer than you, bro” tone and it’s delightful.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:26 PM on January 19, 2018 [39 favorites]


You know who knows the NYT spin is bullshit? The New York Times: How Trump and Schumer Came Close to a Deal Over Cheeseburgers
President Trump and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the top Democrat in the Senate, came close to an agreement to avert a government shutdown over lunch on Friday, but their consensus broke down later in the day when the president and his chief of staff demanded more concessions on immigration, according to people on both sides familiar with the lunch and follow-up calls between Mr. Trump and Mr. Schumer.
...
A White House official said that Mr. Schumer raised the possibility of a one or two-day extension, but Mr. Trump told Mr. Schumer to work out the details of a short-term measure with Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader.

A short time later Mr. Schumer called the president, the person said, but the conversation drove the pair even further apart. The immigration concessions from Democrats were not conservative enough, Mr. Trump told Mr. Schumer. The president said he needed more border security measures as well as more enforcement of illegal immigration in parts of the country far from the border.

As the evening wore on, Mr. Schumer got a call from Mr. Kelly that dashed all hopes for a Trump-Schumer deal before the shutdown deadline of midnight. Mr. Kelly, a hard-liner on immigration, the person familiar with the call said, outlined a long list of White House objections to the deal.
The White House blew up any prospect of a deal. That's why we're in this situation. The Art of the Deal, indeed.
posted by zachlipton at 9:30 PM on January 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


Really telling to me that McConnell stood totally outside the discussions, pretty much only talking with Cornyn and Cotton, and then delivered that blast of dishonest McConnellism despite whatever discussion was going on with Graham and Schumer. He thinks he can win this shutdown fight without giving up anything. Democrats are negotiating with McConnell, Trump is pretty much beside the point.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:31 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Talez: You can think that but all the bravado in the world isn't going to stop the Republicans making massive amounts of political hay pitting poor citizens vs illegal (but innocent) kids.

On tonight's PBS Newshour David Brooks coined the term "illegal-Americans." Apparently by accident? Hopefully?

The crazy thing is, even if the Republicans gave the Democrats everything they want on the Dreamers, they'd still be reserving the right to round up more than ten million people. But that's just not enough.

JackFlash: Republicans shouldn't be able to deflect blame when they fail to pass a budget using 51 votes. The option is still there. They could pass it tomorrow.

This Congressional Research Service report: The Budget Reconciliation Process: House and Senate Procedures (PDF, number RL33030, 2005) makes it sound as though if the budget resolution that was used to enable the tax cut, because it would've already modified spending, and if the fiscal year for that matches up with this CR, under current Senate rules they've used up the reconciliation option because the fiscal year runs from October to October? Maybe? Unless they pass another budget resolution with further reconciliation instructions, but if the first one would have been "binding" can you do that twice?

In any case, though, they still could have devoted the reconciliation to actually funding the government budget instead of chopping it up for the sake of their grotesque tax cuts in the midst of CRs relating to the same budget, they just gambled that the Dems would help them out a few days later, and guessed wrong.
posted by XMLicious at 9:33 PM on January 19, 2018


Democrats are negotiating with McConnell

Nah.. Democrats are negotiating with Lindsey Graham. They left McConnell out of that. He was standing at his lectern, all alone, idly flipping through the four pieces of paper he brought with him. He's in career-level trouble and knows it.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:36 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Leadership has now advised members that the House plans to stay in session through Saturday now.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


He did seem rather hectoring and, I daresay, desperate compared to Schumer who had clearly put two thoughts together about what he was going to say.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:38 PM on January 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


From the cheeseburger article:

In the morning, Mr. Mulvaney seemed resigned to failure, promising to “manage the shutdown differently” than President Barack Obama’s administration did a 2013 shutdown. He accused Mr. Obama of “weaponizing” that shutdown to maximize outrage against Republicans.

FUCK. YOU.
posted by angrycat at 9:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [42 favorites]


> We now have raw patriarchy, which asserts its rights through naked displays of power. And the president, with his porn star mistresses, his boasting of sexual assaults, and even his phallic tweets about the size of his nuclear button, is the perfect leader for conservatives’ post-chivalric world.

> I think a lot of non-right-wing folks (because I'm sure she would have considered herself "independent") think that someone would step in and stop the government from actually hurting people or taking away their rights.

Record numbers of women are running for political office - "266 Democratic women have reported raising money for House races, and other women are putting money into campaigns at unprecedented rates, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington."
posted by kliuless at 9:41 PM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Mods, please feel free to delete if this is a derail -

I'm trying to refresh my memory on the last, oh 17 years of immigration legislation (or lack thereof). I know the original DREAM act was introduced in 2001. Is it fair to say the GOP really started losing their minds on immigration in 2007 when even Dubya couldn't get them to vote for his immigration reform bill? (I don't have a great sense of how decent that bill was to begin with).

Does anyone have a good timeline covering these events pre-Trump?
posted by mostly vowels at 9:43 PM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


President Trump Is Having an Affair ‘Right Now,’ Michael Wolff Tells Bill Maher
Instead of telling Maher about something that he did put in the book, Wolff slyly teased a White House anecdote that he apparently didn’t feel comfortable including. There was one story about Trump that he kept hearing, but couldn’t confirm, even by his questionable standards.

“I didn’t have the blue dress,” Wolff said, referring to the evidence that damned Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

“It’s about somebody’s he’s fucking right now?” Maher asked, excitedly.

“Yes,” Wolff replied, but he refused to elaborate. “You just have to read between the lines,” he said, adding, “Now that I’ve told you, when you hit that paragraph, you’ll say bingo.”
posted by kirkaracha at 9:45 PM on January 19, 2018 [25 favorites]


The Whelk: "can someone please primary Schumer like they need it to live"

I'm not sure where you are coming from here, but in any case, Schumer was just re-elected in 2016. 2022 is a ways off.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:45 PM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Does anyone have a good timeline covering these events pre-Trump?

I'd start at Elian Gonzalez.
posted by rhizome at 9:47 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Frankly, the shutdown should be weaponized to maximize outrage. I wrote this in 2013, and it applies now:
It has become clear in recent years that there is a vast divide in this country over the fundamental role of the federal government in our society. If shutting the government down is going to be the only way to try to persuade those who believe that we should abolish it, then, regretfully, I say let's really shut it down right.

The current system classes certain functions as "essential," but I'd posit that many of the "essential" positions are simply those whose absence will be noticed more quickly, while a large number of the "unessential" ones may be just as critical to a functioning society, but it would take us a bit longer to miss them. Why is the guy who fixes jeeps in the motor pool at a military base in Germany more "essential" to the United States next week than the woman filing a lawsuit against someone who dumps toxic waste into a river? Why is the agent checking my passport as I stumble, beery-eyed, off my international flight more "essential" next week than the regulators who are checking to see whether my bank has enough money to cover my withdrawals? Nothing too terrible may happen next week if the toxic sludge keeps pouring or my bank is somewhat under-capitalized, but sooner or later, that stuff catches up with us.

So when (I really want to say "if," but let's be real here) the government shuts down, it should really shut down. No; air traffic controllers shouldn't walk off the job at midnight, leaving the poor pilots of the redeyes to fend for themselves as they work out a landing sequence, but get everyone safely on the ground, keep limited staffing on hand to work emergency law enforcement, aeromedical, and military flights, and send everyone else home. Keep enough border guards on-hand for basic security only, and hang a giant "Closed" sign across the Ambassador Bridge: "America is closed this week ma'am, you can try again once Congress passes a budget and we have a government." Cruise ships and container ships can wait offshore until we have a budget to pay for the customs inspectors. Meat inspectors should be sent off the job, leaving carcasses to rot in the slaughterhouses. Checks can pile up without the Fed to process payments. And we're not even talking about all the money for roads, schools, police, unemployment, social services, etc... that gets run by the states but is paid for out of the federal budget.

Would this suck? You bet. Planes grounded nationwide, untold piles of food imports rotting at ports of entry, billions of dollars of value disappearing from the economy by the minute. Apple Stores sold out of iPhones because imports are shut down (oh the humanity!). But maybe the folks responsible for those industries, the same folks who happen to have the ears of Members of Congress, might have strong objections to this plan? Maybe, just maybe, they could use their influence to push a deal that keeps the government operating? Maybe we'd see that less government isn't always better, that government does a lot of stuff in our daily lives that we take for granted. That's not going to happen if the only people inconvenienced by a shutdown are a gazillion federal workers (who we've already been treating like punching bags for the past few years anyway) and sad looking kids who can't visit the National Zoo. We need to have the conversation, to show how and why government serves a role in our society, and if it takes a shutdown to make that happen, then let's do it.

I'll just make sure I'm standing upwind of the giant pile of rotting meat before it starts though.
Is truly shutting the government down, short of absolute life-or-death safety operations, unthinkable? Damn straight; it should be. Government does so many things that are downright essential. We should all be confronted with that. If Republicans want to belittle the value of government any chance they get, then they should have to face what it means to not have one.
posted by zachlipton at 9:48 PM on January 19, 2018 [75 favorites]


Can we clarify why exactly Schumer sucks this time? I promise I'm not gonna argue. I just don't understand why he is bottom-feeding scum right now. Because he didn't roll over? Because he rolled over too often in the past? Help.
posted by Justinian at 9:52 PM on January 19, 2018 [27 favorites]


To paraphrase Twitter: How the fuck is The Onion supposed to think up stupider shit than this.
posted by Talez at 9:52 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


Huh, i thought Schumer's speech was pretty good.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:54 PM on January 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


@markknoller: WH just posted Pres Trump's public schedule for Saturday. Nothing on it. No flight to his Palm Beach estate, which was postponed Friday. He has a big money fundraiser planned Saturday evening to mark anniversary of his Inauguration. @MickMulvaneyOMB said @POTUS wouldn't go.

Trump being pissed that he doesn't get to go to his big fancy party where people pay $250K to talk to him is going to result in some seriously angry tweets.
posted by zachlipton at 9:56 PM on January 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


Yeah, I'm always just perplexed at roving bands of putative libertarians and objectivists having a cow over the government shutting down. Isn't this, like, your ultimate fanfiction daydream, Paul Ryan?

I feel terrible about this for federal employees and folks dependent on services, especially since this all could have been resolved easily with nobody getting harmed or screwed, well, except for Trump, Kelly, Miller, Cotton, Perdue, et al., who so richly deserve all the bad things.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:02 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


under current Senate rules they've used up the reconciliation option because the fiscal year runs from October to October?

It's a new calendar year. They get a new budget resolution. Normally, you are supposed to pass a budget resolution before the next budget year starts. In fact, according to the rules, they are supposed to pass a budget resolution by this coming April 15, for fiscal 2019 but there is no reason they can't do it before then. They could pass a completely new budget resolution tomorrow. Nominally it would be for fiscal 2019, but the subject isn't limited to that as we saw when they used a budget resolution just for Obamacare repeal. They could pass their continuing resolution with 51 votes if they wanted if they were willing to use up their one budget resolution for this calendar year.
posted by JackFlash at 10:06 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Schumer is playing this fine. He lost less marginal Dem votes than I expected. He shouldn't have negotiated away Dem votes for nothing, and shouldn't have negotiated on CHIP or DACA when Republicans ostensibly want both things. There were multiple bipartisan compromises today and yesterday to do both. There's multiple solutions right now that could draw a majority in both houses. McConnell wouldn't put any of them in front of Trump. What more do you want from him as a caucus leader in this moment?

The real test is now. Dems can win this fight, but not on the politics. It has to be on the merits of CHIP and DACA. They have to argue at every turn that they're willing to fund everything, right now, including DACA, and make Republicans state why that's not acceptable - because Republicans right now aren't arguing against the Dreamers, they're yelling about the military and 'illegal immigration', and generally blaming Democrats, but not actually arguing against the merits. Because they know 70% disagree with them when the issue is actually set out, including at least 4 Republican Senators. But, it only takes a couple traitorous red state Democrats to undermine that. It's going to be a tough tightrope to walk, they need coherent messaging and consistency, and relentless focus on the real impact. If they let Republicans and the New York Times turn this into "Democrats are shutting down the government for illegals" without pushback, that's not a winning frame. Schumer is going to be key to keeping message discipline.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:09 PM on January 19, 2018 [46 favorites]


To paraphrase Twitter: How the fuck is The Onion supposed to think up stupider shit than this.

For historical perspective, I recall that Tom Lehrer ( google it ) got out of the satire game when Henry Kissinger was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.
posted by mikelieman at 10:15 PM on January 19, 2018 [58 favorites]


Some nice unanimous consent Democratic posturing: Sen. McCaskill proposes a bill to ensure military pay and death benefits are paid. McConnell objects. Sen. Nelson proposes keeping the government open for 24 hours. McConnell objects. Sen. Tester proposes a three-day CR. McConnell objects.

McConnell says they'll reconvene at noon tomorrow, because whatever, why show up to work before noon after this?
posted by zachlipton at 10:21 PM on January 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


So for those who have been following this closely: putting Trump aside for a minute, what could be the contents of a bill that McConnell could pass with 46-50 R's and 10-14 D's, and Ryan could pass in the House with mostly R votes?
posted by chortly at 10:25 PM on January 19, 2018


@samstein: Per a source familiar: it was Kelly who called Schumer to say that the outline of the deal that Schumer and Trump had discussed was too liberal

@mattyglesias: In ways we are only beginning to grasp, Trump isn’t really the president.
posted by zachlipton at 10:25 PM on January 19, 2018 [102 favorites]


mrjohnmuller: So, while the American OS is offline, can we try and dual-boot a new system? I think Canada has an ol' floppy drive with some parliamentary democracy on it.

Since you're so prone to shutdowns anyway, might I suggest the Belgian model? I believe they went for a couple of years without being able to form a government, and yet the functions of government kept humming along just fine anyway. Lovely waffles, too.
posted by clawsoon at 10:27 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


We may yet get to the "vaguely co-habitating blocs of geographically adjacent regions" level.
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:29 PM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


what could be the contents of a bill that McConnell could pass with 46-50 R's and 10-14 D's, and Ryan could pass in the House with mostly R votes?

CHIP + DACA fix could pass with all Democrats and maybe 20 Republicans. But that's exactly what McConnell won't do. If what we saw tonight didn't draw enough Dem defectors to break a threshold, I'm not sure there's a combination without DACA that could pass.

Since you're so prone to shutdowns anyway, might I suggest the Belgian model? I believe they went for a couple of years without being able to form a government, and yet the functions of government kept humming along just fine anyway.

This is the fucking stupid Josh Barro joke he just made on twitter. The difference is Belgium has a self-funding mechanism, just because they didn't technically have a governing parliamentary coalition, didn't mean that the machinery of state shut down and the bureaucrats that run everything day to day were legally prevented from doing their job. A reform to do away with our current government-by-hostage existence, which would provide for continued appropriations at the previous levels in the event of any lapse in funding, and completely eliminate the absurd concept of the debt ceiling, would be great. I'm sure Democrats would agree to that in a heartbeat. Republicans would not, under any circumstances.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:34 PM on January 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


This is the fucking stupid Josh Barro joke he just made on twitter.

Stupid minds think alike, eh?
posted by clawsoon at 10:38 PM on January 19, 2018


> @laurenegambino Sen. Bob Casey - Democrat of Pennsylvania: “I was not elected to genuflect to the Freedom Caucus.”

Whatever Chuck Schumer is doing, it's gotten Bob freaking Casey fired up. That's all I need to know in order to sleep soundly tonight.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:40 PM on January 19, 2018 [52 favorites]


CHIP + DACA fix could pass with all Democrats and maybe 20 Republicans. But that's exactly what McConnell won't do. If what we saw tonight didn't draw enough Dem defectors to break a threshold, I'm not sure there's a combination without DACA that could pass.

It seems very unlikely that McConnell or Ryan would ever pass anything with more Democratic than Republican votes. McConnell aside, is it possible the House bill plus DACA could pass the Senate with 40-something Republican votes? And if so, would such a thing have a chance at winning a majority of Republicans in the House?
posted by chortly at 10:42 PM on January 19, 2018


I think it's more that Casey's dad invented CHIP.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:42 PM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


The House bill is what they voted on tonight...
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:44 PM on January 19, 2018


is it fair to say the GOP really started losing their minds on immigration in 2007 when even Dubya couldn't get them to vote for his immigration reform bill?

Google is failing me, because this article is from several years ago, but I believe it was TIME that had graphs showing the prevalence of racist views within the two parties over time.

From 1980 or so to 2004, the Republicans had a higher prevalence of racist views, but the trend of both parties was the same - the data showed them becoming more or less racist at the same pace. Any increase or decrease in racist views affected both parties equally. The graph seemed to be saying that prior to 2004, out of all the racists in the country, the Republican party had about two thirds of them, and the Democratic party had the other third, and that was a stable ratio.

The trend began to diverge around 2004. The Dems became less racist at the same time as the Rs became more racist. And the divergence started with their views on Hispanic people; views on black people didn't diverge until 2007, if I recall. Hispanic immigration was a hot button issue in the early 2000s, although I don't remember why - I was a teenager at the time - and obviously Obama in 2007. So it seems to me that when these things were in the news a lot, it triggered ... something.

I'm hesitant to draw a narrative, because I was a teenager, like I said. And I don't know if that data exactly shows the Republican party losing their minds. And it's not obvious why there's the disparity between the two parties. And I think this will turn into a derail if we try to explore those questions. But if you want a date, there you go. 2004.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:45 PM on January 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


@pdmcleod: Sounds like it was Paul Ryan, via phone, who sunk negotiations. Wouldn't commit the House to tying DACA to a must-pass funding bill.

@taragolshan: .@JeffFlake says Leader McConnell agrees to move forward with a DACA bill regardless of whether Trump approves of it.

@ericawerner: Flake says expects agreement tomorrow (Saturday) on CR to Feb 8 - and vote on the bipartisan DACA bill. Says has that commitment from McConnell.

If the Senate passes something like the Durbin-Graham bill tomorrow and Ryan won't put it up for a vote, it's going to be utterly evident the GOP has no idea what it wants.
posted by zachlipton at 10:46 PM on January 19, 2018 [25 favorites]


Welp, looks like I get to go in on Monday and find out if I'm out of a job, or one of the "lucky" essential ones who gets to keep working for IOUs.

Last time this happened, a bunch of the people deemed essential resented the non-essential people because while they had to come in to work, everyone else ended up getting back pay anyway. So the "essential" people missed out on a paid holiday. If that isn't a perfect example of "get the peons to fight among themselves and they'll forget about the enemy", I don't know what is.
posted by ctmf at 11:39 PM on January 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


How many previous shitdowns have occured when a single party had control of both houses of Congress as well as the presidency?

0
posted by bootlegpop at 1:11 AM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


citation
posted by XMLicious at 1:24 AM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]




In ways we are only beginning to grasp, Trump isn’t really the president.

Of course he isn't, that's been clear from the beginning. He's a dumber, racist Zaphod Beeblebrox without the cool.
posted by rifflesby at 2:20 AM on January 20, 2018 [24 favorites]


I was asked by someone who doesn't follow US politics but knows I have that terrible affliction what was going on, and I said "The Democrats are trying to prevent massive injustice to young people, and literally trying to save the lives of children, and the Republicans are framing it as an attack on Americans". Which I think is as fair as anything you can say, but a narrative I'm just not seeing anywhere.

Furthermore, there's the "This is what happens when you vote in prima face cruelty-addict right-wing incompetents because they tell you what you want to hear. It is a worked example playing out in real time in your life right now" angle which I hope will have some resonance in the UK where, guess what, public services are being destroyed in the name of insanity on the path to perdition.

These are going to be my lines on this ,because not only can I point to actual proof but if I had as many arms as Kali I'd still run out of fingers in the pointing thereof. And they're not hidden things, they're literally - as in literally literally - the first three items on the news every damn night.
posted by Devonian at 3:16 AM on January 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


In ways we are only beginning to grasp, Trump isn’t really the president.

1. This was the case with Bush Jr., as well.
2. Wouldn't a word in Trump's ear, maybe via 'Fox and Friends' turn him against Kelley?
Something simple and poisonous like, 'Kelley thinks Trump may only be worth 10 million on a good day.' Or 'Kelley glad to take reins of Executive, Trump happier playing golf and watching tv.'
3. Sigh
4. Saw recently the suggestion that the kompromat is actually money laundering.
5. Couldn't Twitter write in code to disable bots?
6. Could some fucking adults step in and run things until the legal shit is resolved. Also, 'way to go Republicans, you fucking dipshits.'
posted by From Bklyn at 3:17 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


1. This was the case with Bush Jr., as well.
Yeah, but the Bush handlers were competent at being evil and corrupt. This time they are all idiots, including the generals*, and entirely driven by racism and greed.

*Everyone should drop the notion that someone must be intelligent to become a general. I've known a couple of not very smart generals in my lifetime, and even among smart generals, not many have the skills required for politics. As we saw yesterday.
posted by mumimor at 3:31 AM on January 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


I know that Mattis is SecDef and needs to stay mum about domestic policy, but he's pretty blunt. Have there been any statement out of him lately?

This one is interesting: "US Defence Secretary James Mattis has said competition between great powers, not terrorism, is now the main focus of America's national security."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42752298

That feels like a change. Pity there's no State Department any more...
posted by wenestvedt at 4:06 AM on January 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


@ericawerner: Flake says expects agreement tomorrow (Saturday) on CR to Feb 8 - and vote on the bipartisan DACA bill. Says has that commitment from McConnell.

If the Senate passes something like the Durbin-Graham bill tomorrow and Ryan won't put it up for a vote, it's going to be utterly evident the GOP has no idea what it wants.

How is it that anyone sees this as a solution (for anyone but the GOP)? McConnell allows the Senate to pass something that doesn't even get considered by the House, in exchange for Democratic votes to end the Shutdown.
posted by pjenks at 4:56 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Congress returns to work Saturday as lawmakers press to keep shutdown short-lived (WaPo)
Both parties confronted major political risks with 10 months to go until the midterm elections. Republicans resolved not to submit to the minority party’s demands to negotiate, while Democrats largely unified to use the shutdown deadline to force concessions on numerous issues — including protections for hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants. ...

The early contours of the blame game appeared to cut against Trump and the Republicans, who control all levers of government but cannot pass major legislation without at least partial support from Senate Democrats. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, Americans said by a 20-point margin that they would blame a shutdown on Trump and the GOP rather than Democrats.

... Trump took to Twitter on Saturday morning to lay the blame on Democrats, saying they “are far more concerned with Illegal Immigrants than they are with our great Military or Safety at our dangerous Southern Border. They could have easily made a deal but decided to play Shutdown politics instead.” He also noted in a follow-up tweet that Saturday is the first anniversary of his inauguration and that “the Democrats wanted to give me a nice present.”

One possible path out of the impasse appeared in wee hours: Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), leaving the Senate floor, said that he had secured an agreement from McConnell to bring a bipartisan bill addressing “dreamers” — young immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children — up for a vote.

Flake said he expected a short-term spending deal to be agreed to during Saturday’s Senate session, extending government funding through Feb. 8. By that same date, he said, McConnell would move to bring up the dreamer bill crafted by Sens. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.).

Flake had previously gotten a similar commitment from McConnell, but the majority leader insisted in recent days that any dreamer bill would have to be one Trump supported. Flake said he had urged him, and McConnell had agreed, not to wait on the president.

“At this point, we agree we can’t wait for the White House anymore,” Flake said.

A McConnell spokeswoman did not immediately comment Saturday morning on Flake’s account of a deal.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:04 AM on January 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


Flake had previously gotten a similar commitment from McConnell, but the majority leader insisted in recent days that any dreamer bill would have to be one Trump supported. Flake said he had urged him, and McConnell had agreed, not to wait on the president.

...and Flake thinks he'll keep his promise this time because?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:38 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


On the first day of Trump’s first year, the largest single-day mass demonstrations in U.S. history took place in opposition.

On the first day of Trump’s second year, he “leads” his party to a shutdown of the federal government.

Trump never could get the hang of firstdays.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:38 AM on January 20, 2018 [39 favorites]


So what do you do if you paid $250k to go to Trump's gala and he is a no-show? I hope people tweet their chargebacks.
posted by ryanrs at 5:46 AM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


With government shutdown, Republicans reap what they sow Richard Wolffe/Guardian
Today’s Republican party is built on principle. As a matter of principle, the GOP believes it is the only party that can shut down government as a negotiating tactic. The Democrats’ job is to keep that government open and to cave in to its demands.

These truths we hold to be self-evident, after watching several rounds of this sad kabuki theater through the Clinton and Obama years.

Now that the Democrats have triggered a government shutdown, Republicans are outraged. Because of their principles, you know.
posted by mumimor at 5:50 AM on January 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


No, the Wall Street Journal was the newspaper for the rich. the New York Times was the newspaper for the smart. But then, something happened.....

1. The Wall Street Journal is read by the people who run the country.

2. The Washington Post is read by people who think they run the country.

3. The New York Times is read by people who think they should run the country.

4. USA Today is read by people who think they ought to run the country but don't really understand the Washington Post. They do, however, like their statistics shown in pie chart format.

5. The Los Angeles Times is read by people who wouldn't mind running the country, if they could spare the time, and if they didn't have to leave LA to do it.

6. The Boston Globe is read by people whose parents used to run the country and they did a far superior job of it, thank you very much.

(Old meme)
posted by Melismata at 5:51 AM on January 20, 2018 [71 favorites]


Just a quick sidebar from this loyal lurker: a full year of these official POTUS45 megathreads has given me an even greater respect for the Metafilter community than I thought possible. A huge thank you to everybody who contributes to these, from the regulars with the deep sources to the drive-by snarkmasters... I couldn't have gotten this far without reliably having you to read every day. Extra special thanks (and hugs, and booze) to the mods, freaking superstars all. I don't know how you do it, but you consistently do, and you're amazing. We're blessed to have you.

Happy* one year anniversary y'all! 🙌💯

* for varying definitions of happy, considering the effects of this nightmarish shitshow
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 5:54 AM on January 20, 2018 [131 favorites]


On Trump’s First Anniversary, a Government Shutdown (John Cassidy | The New Yorker)
Schumer, in his response to McConnell, sought to place the blame for what had just happened squarely on the President. This line had been telegraphed previously, too, but the Democratic leader, Schumer, had a new twist to offer, in the form of an account of his ninety-minute meeting with Trump, who fashions himself as the great dealmaker. During that meeting, Schumer said, he outlined a possible deal in which the Democrats would agree to finance Trump’s wall across the Mexican border as part of a package that also included extending legal protections for the Dreamers, funding the chip health-care program, and boosting the budget for military and domestic spending. The meeting had gone well, Schumer said, and after leaving it had he had thought the sides might be able to agree to fund the government for a short period, during which they would hash out the details of an agreement. But even though Trump had seemed to be open to this idea, Schumer said he “did not press his party in Congress to accept it.”

Schumer could perhaps have left it there, but he was only working up to his punchline: “What happened to the President who asked us to come out with a deal and promised he’d take heat for it? What happened to that President? He backed off at the first sign of pressure,” Schumer said. “The same chaos, the same disarray, the same division and discord on the Republican side that’s been in the background of these negotiations for months unfortunately appears endemic.” That was a none-too-subtle reference to the televised meeting in the Oval Office a couple of weeks ago during which Trump had said he would accept any bipartisan deal that the other people in the room came up with. Schumer went on, “Now all of this problem is because Republican leadership can’t get to yes, because President Trump refuses to. Mr. President, President Trump, if you are listening, I am urging you: please take yes for an answer.” The “blame should crash entirely” on the President’s shoulders, he added. ...

Much will depend on what happens in the next few days, and, especially, on how Trump behaves. On Friday, the Daily Beast reported that he was distinctly nonplussed at the prospect of staying in Washington and missing his anniversary party down in Florida. (The story didn’t say who at the White House, if anybody, had explained to the President that the job of President occasionally involves staying in town and working weekends.) Will Trump stand by his initial refusal, in the statement Sanders put out, even to negotiate with the Democrats? Or will Schumer’s taunts goad him into action? We’ll soon find out.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:55 AM on January 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


ryanrs: "So what do you do if you paid $250k to go to Trump's gala and he is a no-show? I hope people tweet their chargebacks."

Assuming people actually care about meeting the Cheeto and aren't using this as a legal way of bribing a sitting president.
posted by Mitheral at 6:00 AM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


I'm proud of the Democratic party right now, yet I'm also not too ashamed of the handful of Dems who caved. People who try to make concessions to terrorists aren't necessarily villains themselves, just possibly wrongheaded (or possibly not, depending on the circumstances). It's fundamentally the hostage-taker's fault for presenting the terrible choice in the first place; everything else is secondary.

Still, it would be nice if at least one of the cavers very clearly presented it as such: "Republicans refused to renew CHIP because they wanted to use children's lives as leverage. I'm knuckling under to those Republicans for the sake of those children. I'm offering the ransom money to Republicans, the supervillains in the room." Maybe even drop a reference to the first episode of Black Mirror (dear God I hope no actual Democrat's social media intern does that last one).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:04 AM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Whatever Chuck Schumer is doing, it's gotten Bob freaking Casey fired up. That's all I need to know in order to sleep soundly tonight.

Bob freaking Casey has been fired up for the past year and it's not just because of what Schumer is doing. I'd say a big part of his change in attitude has to do with constituent engagement. He sees the pressure that Toomey has been under. (For example, faxzero.com says that Toomey received the most faxes through their service of any person or organization in 2017. That's 330,000 faxes. Twice as many as the second most popular recipient, McConnell.) And he sees the support he gets when he does well and speaks up. I believe this has emboldened him.
posted by mcduff at 6:14 AM on January 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


Let me get this straight. The Republicans willingly failed to pass a budget via the usual channels so they could hold nine million children hostage to get their way. And people are getting pissed at Democrats for playing politics.
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 6:15 AM on January 20, 2018 [92 favorites]


...and Flake thinks he'll keep his promise this time because?

If I had to guess it's because Ryan kicked this stupid shit to the Senate in the first place instead of allowing the House Freedom Caucus to hang themselves on the rope so graciously provided.

How is it that anyone sees this as a solution (for anyone but the GOP)? McConnell allows the Senate to pass something that doesn't even get considered by the House, in exchange for Democratic votes to end the Shutdown.

IMHO because now it's Ryan's problem. If Ryan passes DACA + CR with D votes his career as speaker is over. If Ryan doesn't consider the bill the shutdown is now his hot potato.
posted by Talez at 7:09 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


It’s a bad day for the nation but a great day for a walk with friends downtown.
posted by notyou at 7:09 AM on January 20, 2018 [21 favorites]


Melismata, credit where credit is due for that newspaper bit: Yes, Prime Minister.
posted by McCoy Pauley at 7:10 AM on January 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Um, don't we all assume Schumer ALLOWED those five Democrats to vote Yes? He can count, he knew the four Rs were defecting, he let just the right number of senators defect that he could and still sink the vote, and magically it's the five whose votes will play the best in their re-election campaigns.

The fact that the caucus hasn't been attacking the defectors tells me it's a planned and strategic defection, not a loss of party discipline. I'd expect at least 4 of those 5 to vote with Schumer if their votes were needed.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:17 AM on January 20, 2018 [81 favorites]


It’s a bad day for the nation but a great day for a walk with friends downtown.

It's a great day for the Women's March. Sunny and high of 50 here in Manhattan. Heading up there shortly.
posted by chris24 at 7:18 AM on January 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


On my way to the march. With hats. And a bag of popcorn.
posted by bilabial at 7:28 AM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Yes, Ds are sure to take Ryan's word on talks if they surrender.

@costareports (WaPo)
Here’s where things stand, GOP members texting me about Ryan’s private remarks to conference... they say he just made clear to group that there will be no negotiating on immigration during shutdown but are open to talks on that front once govt is reopened...
- Ryan told members just now that some Dems want a 5 day extension but Ryan is keen to stick with the bill House passed ... he knows many Rs want DACA fix but at this point Dems have to agree to CR if they want any progress on that issue, per Members in the room
posted by chris24 at 7:33 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


he knows many Rs want DACA fix but at this point Dems have to agree to CR if they want any progress on that issue, per Members in the room

Called it. He knows if he does a DACA + CR deal he's done.
posted by Talez at 7:47 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


His plan is to use DACA like Lucy uses the football.
posted by Talez at 7:48 AM on January 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


I’m just struck by how Trump last year explicitly asked for a “good shutdown” and then, for his first anniversary present, he got one, wrapped up in a big bow with his name on it.

Well, they say the traditional 1-Year Anniversary gift is supposed to be “paper”. A government shutdown sort of counts, right?

And he didn’t even get to go to his party...
posted by darkstar at 7:51 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Yeah, McCaskill in MO voted yes and people are talking shit about we need to primary her. This is in a state that went to Trump 57% to Clinton's 38%, our other Senator is the execrable Roy Blunt who is one of the very top recipients of NRA money in the entire senate, and our new governor is a proudly ignorant wackadoo whose only apparent talents are firing assault rifles and blackmailing his extramarital lovers.

Schumer knows how intensely vulnerable Claire McCaskill is in the midterms this year; she doesn't need a barrage of attack ads blaming her for shutting down the government. Claire strongly opposed the tax scam bill and healthcare repeal. We need her in the Senate and honestly she is the best senator that Missouri is going to get.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 7:54 AM on January 20, 2018 [60 favorites]


For Trump lying is just another word for exhaling. Nothing McConnell and Ryan say is even half credible anymore, even to their own members. Other Republicans like Flake, Graham, or McCain might accidentally leave a sliver of truth baked into a large shit pie. The freedom caucus nuts are somewhat trustworthy, in the same way you can "trust" your crazy uncle to ruin thanksgiving with racist bile every year. Then theres Ted Cruz, who everyone hates.

Forget about Democrats. How do the Republicans drive themselves out of this ditch?
posted by Glibpaxman at 7:59 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


How do the Republicans drive themselves out of this ditch?

Not going to happen in this dimension, but IIRC, the "moderate Republicans" throw the extremists under the bus and caucus with Democrats go get things done.
posted by mikelieman at 8:04 AM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yeah, McCaskill in MO voted yes and people are talking shit about we need to primary her. This is in a state that went to Trump 57% to Clinton's 38%, our other Senator is the execrable Roy Blunt who is one of the very top recipients of NRA money in the entire senate, and our new governor is a proudly ignorant wackadoo whose only apparent talents are firing assault rifles and blackmailing his extramarital lovers.

Schumer knows how intensely vulnerable Claire McCaskill is in the midterms this year; she doesn't need a barrage of attack ads blaming her for shutting down the government. Claire strongly opposed the tax scam bill and healthcare repeal. We need her in the Senate and honestly she is the best senator that Missouri is going to get.


Exactly. The Democrats who voted yes were all vulnerable Dems from red states. I surmise Schumer let them vote yes because they could be spared, and it might save their hides come re-election time. And the more Democratic Senators we can get - even ones who have to be more blue-doggish than we'd like, because they have to cater to red state voters - the better off we'll be, as long as no-one pulls a Lieberman and actually betrays their party, which none of the red state Democrats have so far.

(I'm pulling for Beto O'Rourke to unseat Ted Cruz in 2018. That would be sweeeeeet, and I'm not even from Texas.)

I think the task now is for Democrats to hang this shutdown albatross around the neck of Trump and the Republicans in Congress. It's 2018, people! The more we can cover them in their own poo the more we'll benefit in the midterms.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:04 AM on January 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


I know that Mattis is SecDef and needs to stay mum about domestic policy, but he's pretty blunt. Have there been any statement out of him lately?

Yesterday he gave a speech crying about funding for the military and approvingly cited this comment from Paul Ryan saying: "Our men and women in uniform are not bargaining chips."

But apparently he is okay with holding children as hostages. FU, Mattis.
posted by JackFlash at 8:07 AM on January 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


Hannity was a dictionary example of duckspeak yesterday. He went on for a bit mocking Democratic "doom and gloomers" warning of all the potential consequences of a shutdown, stating flatly that all major government functions would go on as usual and no one ever doesn't get back pay when a shutdown ends and "for a lot of government employees, it's a free paid vacation."

Cut to commercial, and once back he ranted about how TERRIBLE it was that the Democrats were shutting down the government because illegal alien criminals were more important to them than YOUR CHILDREN. Well, which is it, big mouth? Death Panels for Toddlers or Impotent Dems Pretending That They Can Affect Anything?

I punched out when he switched gears to ranting about the MemoGuffin. Too much of him in one day leads to tooth decay and ass cancer.
posted by delfin at 8:12 AM on January 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


I've been insanely busy at work this week and exhausted the rest of the time. Can anyone link me to a small-words version of what just happened and why? I know it involves DACA and CHIP and the fucking wall and the budget and Trump being incoherent re all of the above, but all my usual sources are assuming more background info than I actually have right now. What did the House do? Senate? Why can't they just decouple necessary, popular legislation from a budget? How does the debt ceiling play into all of this? What are the possible end games? I'm lost. (And if I'm lost, I am concerned about the average voter being in any way able to figure out accurately who to blame here.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:16 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


You've got the gist of it.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:18 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Devorah Blachor, McSweeney's: The Trump Aristocrats
A talent agent is sitting in his office. A man walks in.

“Have I got an act for you,” says the man.

“Oh yeah?” says the talent agent. “Tell me about it.”

“It’s a family act,” says the man. “You have the father. He’s a real dope. Looks like a red-faced combover Borscht Belt comedian who’s so washed up that he’s playing Otsego County. He comes on stage with his daughter, who’s beautiful, a knockout, and the father starts talking about how he wants to fuck the daughter. Hilarious, right? “Look at these hands!” the father brags to his daughter. “Are they small hands? I guarantee you there’s no problem. I guarantee you.”
It gets better!
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:31 AM on January 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


“Now all of this problem is because Republican leadership can’t get to yes, because President Trump refuses to. Mr. President, President Trump, if you are listening, I am urging you: please take yes for an answer.”

That's a really great framing from Schumer. I'm so glad our party leadership are, you know, competent as well as decent.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:40 AM on January 20, 2018 [31 favorites]


> You've got the gist of it.

Yeah, pretty much. But FYI:

> What did the House do?

Passed a four week continuing resolution (CR) on (basically) a party-line vote. Yet again ignoring the Dreamers, but including an extension of the Children's Health Insurance Program, which expired a while ago. As an aside, everyone supports CHIP and it *saves* the government money to cover kids under CHIP instead of under ACA.

> Senate?

Most Democrats and a few Republicans agreed that kicking the can down the road again and again was no way to run a government, and prevented cloture on a vote on the House CR. They want resolution on the longer term budget and on the Dreamers, who are now being deported, a handful at a time, every day.

> Why can't they just decouple necessary, popular legislation from a budget?

Well, the full answer to this starts back in the Nixon era and the Devil's bargain the Republicans signed. Or, possibly, it starts with Lincoln and the Reconstruction era. But for now, Republicans have no idea how to govern short of taking popular hostages that even they are in favor of, on paper at least. (Attacking Dems from the left for not caring about healthcare for kids? Good luck with that.)

> How does the debt ceiling play into all of this? What are the possible end games? I'm lost.

Eventually the debt ceiling comes up again, and people agree that the Democrats are too rational to blow up the entire global economy, so they will probably treat that as a must-pass. At which point, the Republicans get everything they want. That's why Rs want to keep kicking the can down the road with CRs.

Every day that the Dream Act languishes, people who were brought to the US as kids, and grew up here, and know of no other home, are deported. It's an ongoing, slow motion catastrophe.

Every day that CHIP is not renewed brings more kids close to being kicked off state insurance plans and denied essential medication.

Every day that the government stays shut further cements the idea that the US is a joke.

And Republicans control all branches of government.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:40 AM on January 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


soren,

The budget bill has to pass both the House and the Senate. In the House, the Republicans have the majority BUT have to deal with the House Freedom Caucus, which is a subset of hardcore backbencher Republicans who are demented reactionaries acutely aware that they have power if they withhold their votes.

So why can't Ryan just pass bills with mostly Republicans and peeling off a couple dozen Democrats? A few reasons. One is the Child Molester Memorial Rule, aka the Hastert Rule, which is in play whenever the Republicans have control of the House; it states that if a bill cannot pass with ONLY Republican votes, the Republican Speaker should not bring it up for a vote at all. It is more of a guideline than a rule -- it does get broken on occasion -- but Compromise is just short of Belgium as a swear word for the HFCs and for the Teahadis in general. Any working with Democrats for any reason, particularly on issues the HFCs Really Really Care About like keeping America lily-white, is grounds for them to pull a no-confidence vote (so to speak) and oust Ryan as the Speaker. Which is a job that he didn't want in the first place, mind, specifically because he knew this is exactly the kind of power play the HFCs pull regularly.

The other factor there is that Pelosi has solid rapport with her House Democrats and has their trust, and can instruct them to vote as a bloc with high success.

So Ryan cannot pass bills with, let's say, 215 Repubs and 25 Dems. He has to pass bills with 215 Repubs and a few dozen HFCs instead, who demand bills be sweetened in their direction if they're going to vote for them at all. This means that the hardcore rightwing rump controls the House.

The DACA thing is something with strong bipartisan support, even among Republicans in general -- it is about giving people who were brought to the US illegally as children a route to citizenship or at least protection from deportation, as it is in no way their fault that they are here and this is the only country they've ever known. The HFCs say Illegal Aliens are Illegal Aliens so Kick Them All Out. So therein lies that impasse.

Now, on the Senate side, this is not a reconciliation bill so it needs 50 to pass but 60 to reach the point where it comes to the floor to the vote requiring 50. (Yeah. But that cloture process is actually fairly valuable as a protection-of-the-minority measure to keep the majority party from running roughshod.) Which is somewhat moot because the Turtle doesn't have FIFTY votes for the bill that the House passed. So what he is doing is using CHIP as a hostage, yelling that Dems would rather let children go uninsured than give up on letting illegal aliens stay here, and claiming that there are weeks to go before the DACA Dreamers would face consequences (there aren't).

The only leverage the Dems have to ensure that DACA is addressed in this bill is to stand firm against the current version. Which opens them up to the "you're voting against CHIP" criticism, but needs to be done. Meanwhile, Ryan simply cannot pass a CR that includes DACA without the HFCs leading a revolt, so either the Senate passes the nasty House bill (they won't, as-is) or the House passes a theoretical compromise bill (they wouldn't, so Turtle won't let it go to a vote), and since we're at multiple impasses that means the government just shuts down.

Why can't they just decouple necessary, popular legislation from a budget?

Because they don't want to. Because it is far more useful to Repubs to use them as hostages. Other popular theories are It Has Something To Do With Original Sin and Because We Touch Ourselves At Night.
posted by delfin at 8:41 AM on January 20, 2018 [80 favorites]


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

1. Go to the movies
2. Read the Fusion GPS transcripts out loud in front of the White House, Congress, Republican offices
3. Read Fire and Fury ditto
4. Stream Obama's SOTU addresses and watch with friends

Keep those ratings *low*.

More ideas?
posted by jointhedance at 8:45 AM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Wow, it looks like someone pulled out all of the budgetary stops on the troll army this morning. Condescendingly nuanced takes on how this debacle is actually the fault of the Democrats are coming down in a deluge on the half dozen or so discussions I wandered into on the web. It's interesting that they are so well coordinated in trivial matters such as rabble rousing and totally unable to coordinate on important topics such as legislation.
posted by feloniousmonk at 8:45 AM on January 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


It's interesting that they are so well coordinated in trivial matters such as rabble rousing and totally unable to coordinate on important topics such as legislation.

I think that's because the Kremlin is considerably more well versed in psy ops than they are in the American legislative process.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:50 AM on January 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


[The Hastert Rule] states that if a bill cannot pass with ONLY Republican votes, the Republican Speaker should not bring it up for a vote at all.

That is overstating the Hastert Rule. The Hastert Rule is that a bill must be supported by a majority of the majority. The Freedom Caucus only has 31 members.
posted by ryanrs at 8:58 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Hastert Rule, which is in play whenever the Republicans have control of the House; it states that if a bill cannot pass with ONLY Republican votes, the Republican Speaker should not bring it up for a vote at all.

That is not the Hastert Rule. The Hastert rule only requires a majority of the majority to allow a vote to proceed. That is, at least half of the Republican caucus must agree. But that mild rule led to John Boehner's demise as Speaker and Paul Ryan as replacement. Since then it has evolved to Hastert Squared, where indeed, Ryan will not allow anything to a floor vote that does not have all the Republicans on board. This is much more radical than the Hastert Rule and has resulted in the current deadlock even on issues such as CHIP and DACA that have general Republican support. The most extreme radicals in the Republican party are calling all the shots.
posted by JackFlash at 9:01 AM on January 20, 2018 [30 favorites]


Gracias for the correction. The original Hastert Rule was, in fact, majority-of-the-majority but as JackFlash stated, it has evolved to that more exclusive standard. I am FAKE NEWS and will eat a bug.
posted by delfin at 9:05 AM on January 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


The House Freedom Caucus is basically threatening open civil war within the party if they don't get their way and Ryan is acquiescing every time.

Here's what happens if Ryan doesn't pledge fealty to the HFC:

1) Mark Meadows files a motion to vacate the speakership.

1b) Ryan now has a choice. He can either go hat in hand to Pelosi (lol) to try and shore up his speakership on the premise that whoever replace him is going to be a HFC pitbull, he can resign in disgrace (most likely), or he can ride it to the end (go to #2).

2) 193 Democrats + 31 HFC members = 224 votes, enough to vacate the speakership.
3) A new election for speakership is called.
4) Ryan cannot win because the HFC will control enough votes to make sure the Republicans cannot elect a speaker in their own right without them.
5) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
6) Whoever is speaker is going to be HFC vetted and far less amenable to compromise and collegiately.
posted by Talez at 9:25 AM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

1. Go to the movies
2. Read the Fusion GPS transcripts out loud in front of the White House, Congress, Republican offices
3. Read Fire and Fury ditto
4. Stream Obama's SOTU addresses and watch with friends

Keep those ratings *low*.

More ideas?
posted by jointhedance at 11:45 AM on January 20 [4 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]


1. Jab myself in the eyes with dull 10 guage bamboo knitting needles.
2. Eat handfuls of warm, raw chicken.
3. Wear a hat made from tapeworms.
posted by Cookiebastard at 9:25 AM on January 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


The House Freedom Caucus is basically threatening open civil war within the party if they don't get their way and Ryan is acquiescing every time....

We already went through that whole list, just substitute 'Boehner' for 'Ryan'. It's been like this since 2010.

That's why I'm a reluctant pro-shutdowner.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:32 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Thanks, yinz guys. I was following everything very closely until recently but then everything went WHARGARBL and I got kind of lost on my way to the Angrydome.

How long do you think the HFC can keep this kind of bomb-throwing up? Is it just a numbers game and if their caucus shrinks by n they'll lose this grossly disproportionate amount of power they seem to wield?

I literally take my headphones out of my ears every time one of my podcasts plays a clip of Trump speaking, so hard pass on the SOTU. I can't stand to listen to that creature make mouth noises even for soundbites, let alone a full hour or whatever.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:34 AM on January 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


I mean, Ryan was supposed to be the Great White Hope who could speak credibly to the Freedom Caucus and the not-utterly-batshit side of the GOP.

I don't see who else can hold them together and I don't know what the procedural rules would be for a three-way Speaker race.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:36 AM on January 20, 2018


Senate Visual Aids Watch: Chuck Schumer has the "Our country needs a good shutdown" Trump tweet on a board behind him
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:39 AM on January 20, 2018 [51 favorites]


If Dems + HFC is enough to kick Ryan to the curb, couldn't it then be Dems + the rest of the Republicans dictating who the new speaker is and leaving the HFC out in the cold? I feel like if you get to that point, the majority of the Republicans will balk at being led by a HFC speaker since their influence is too high anyways.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:40 AM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


I mean, that's a party split. I feel like it would be a *good* thing, and is probably the necessary thing but I think non-Freedom-Caucus Republicans are too afraid of Trump / the Trumpists.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:43 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Why is it assumed that Dems will vote with HFC to vacate the speakership? Dems can't be trying for a Rep split -> Pelosi win, right? Because then Reps + HFC could just vacate again.
posted by ryanrs at 9:43 AM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


We already went through that whole list, just substitute 'Boehner' for 'Ryan'. It's been like this since 2010.

This is pretty different from 2015. Boehner resigned and at least he was at least noble enough to throw himself on the CR grenade. He was 64, he'd been in the house for 24 years, he had a pension, he probably had enough of being Public Enemy #1 on both sides. It was an easy decision comparatively.

Ryan is only 47. He still has presidential aspirations.

I don't see who else can hold them together and I don't know what the procedural rules would be for a three-way Speaker race.

Dems + the rest of the Republicans dictating who the new speaker is and leaving the HFC out in the cold?

It has to be a majority unless a majority of the house agree to a plurality. But if the new speaker isn't HFC approved they would immediately see a motion to vacate the speakership again which would mean a new speakership vote. This is of course unless the Democrats decide to stop the insanity by partnering with the Tuesday Group or something and prop up a "moderate" Republican speaker. But a large scale R+D alliance? The primary ad for 2/3 of the R caucus would write itself.
posted by Talez at 9:44 AM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Why is it assumed that Dems will vote with HFC to vacate the speakership?

Because when your political opponent is descending into omnishambles you don't help them. At least not without getting everything you want.
posted by Talez at 9:45 AM on January 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


This is pretty different from 2015. Boehner resigned and at least he was at least noble enough to throw himself on the CR grenade. He was 64, he'd been in the house for 24 years, he had a pension, he probably had enough of being Public Enemy #1 on both sides. It was an easy decision comparatively.

Yeah, that's true. Paul Ryan doesn't really have any great outs from a career standpoint (and let's be clear, that is the only thing Paul Ryan cares about).
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:47 AM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


And it seems like Mitch McConnell is approaching Pontius Pilate levels of handwashing. Does he actually GAF or at this point is he just rolling his eyes and looking up good retirement locales for humanoid turtles?
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:50 AM on January 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


McConnell can't do anything anyway. You see handwashing, but he's actually politically impotent right now.
posted by Talez at 9:52 AM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Republicans' refusal to legislate DACA protection is in no way based on a widespread opposition to that policy. It is based entirely on the Republicans' desire to use obviously benevolent, pain-free legislation like DACA protection as a bargaining chip to get their partisan agenda passed. That is why the government has shut down; because the Democrats refused to allow Republicans to hold innocent people hostage. The situation could be resolved today by Republicans agreeing to pass the vital legislation they claim to support.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:53 AM on January 20, 2018 [51 favorites]


What did the House do? Senate? Why can't they just decouple necessary, popular legislation from a budget? How does the debt ceiling play into all of this? What are the possible end games?

Bear with me, this goes on for a page or two...(on preview: I see others have answered the question, but I’ll go ahead and leave this comment, in case it adds anything useful).


1. The CHIP (the Children’s Health Insurance Program) is widely popular, enjoying about a 90% approval rate by voters, but was allowed to expire in Sept. 2017. Its renewal was ignored by Republicans because they wanted to focus on trying to repeal the ACA and passing their tax cut for corporations and wealthy people and didn’t want the budgetary impact of a CHIP renewal to be included in their tax bill scoring. And also because they are assholes. (Note their priorities.)

The Dems have been howling about this for months, demanding the program be renewed, with little success. However, when the House voted this week to extend the government budget by another 30 days (the “CR” or Continuing Resolution), as part of trying to get Dems on board with the CR, they included a 6-year reauthirization of CHIP as a bargaining...er...chip. The CR passed and was sent to the Senate for a vote.

2. DACA (the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) was instituted by Obama via Executive Order. It is also a highly popular program. However, the Racist-in-Chief ended it last year, and while its recission has been delayed until this coming March, some DACA applicants (“Dreamers”) are already being deported and the rest of the 800,000 or so Dreamers are dealing with the agonizing stress and uncertainty of not knowing whether they will be kicked out of the only country they have ever known and called home.

Because of this, Dems have also been championing DACA legislation for months. Donny Shithole and the Gang don’t want to do it at all, but they keep making noises about doing it as part of a comprehensive immigration package (by which they mean: “Build the Wall” + “Papers, Please!”). But even these demands aren’t enough to satisfy the hardliners who hate DACA. So President Dumbass says one thing, then his team convince him not to go through with it, rinse, repeat.

So Dems, after the GOP has kicked the can down the road repeatedly, have rightly grown angry at the continuing Republican clusterfuckery and emotional and financial abuse of nearly a million Dreamers, and millions more of their family members, are demanding that enough is enough. They are demanding that any further CRs will contain a DACA fix. Thus, the bill passed by the House is inadequate.

3. In the Senate, the rules allow for a simple 51-vote majority vote to pass most legislation generally, but there are still filibusters that would require 60 votes to break (the “cloture” Vote, so called because it closes a filibuster and allows the regular simple majority vote to then be taken). The Dems filibustered the vote because it didn’t have a DACA fix. The cloture vote was last night, but they only had 51 votes (not 60) in favor. This included 46 Rs and 5 Ds, but McConnell had to shift his “Yea” to a “Nay” because of the rule that says only a Senator giving a “Nay” vote can bring the vote back to the floor later (a common tactic). So the final tally was 50 in favor of cloture, not enough to kill the filibuster, and therefore the CR bill itself couldn’t be voted on.

Because the government budget previously voted on (actually, the LAST CR that was voted on) only extended the budget to midnight last night, and a new CR wasn’t passed, the government is now shut down, and the finger-pointing begins.

4. Note that there is a special rule in the Senate that allows for budgetary issues (such as this CR) to be taken up under “budget reconciliation” once per year. That requires a simple majority passage and is not subject to filibuster. The GOP leadership could, at expand time, emplotpy this method to pass this CR. It would just mean that they wouldn’t be able to use budget reconciliation later in the year to pass another CR or a larger budget. So it’s a card McConnell doesn’t want to play because he anticipates having similarly contentions budgetary votes later this year OR he wants to use it to shoehorn in unpopular legislation which he can nevertheless get his caucus to vote for. (The ACA repeal attempt and the GOP tax scam were both unpopular with the nation, but McConnell used this budget reconciliation trick to almost-pass the former and successfully pass the latter.).

5. Moving forward, there are a few possibilities:

a. The same CR is brought up again in the Senate for a vote under normal order. But without DACA in it, the same result would likely occur. The GOP might be able to get it to pass by McConnell and Ryan making heavy promises to take up a DACA bill before the CR expires again, and President Art of the Derp reassuring everyone he won’t veto it. This relies on how trustworthy the Dems find those jokers (*snort!*).

b. The same CR is brought up again under budget reconciliation. It would likely pass, but that would remove McConnell’s budget reconciliation card for several months. However, it is conceivable that one or more if the released Dem votes (that voted yes on the CR this time) could change their vote to align with the rest of the Dem caucus. If that happened, it would kill the CR again, the shutdown would continue, and the GOP would have lost their budget reconciliation card for the next six months. So it’s a risk McConnell is reluctant to take even if he were inclined to spend his budget reconciliation on this CR.

A revised CR could be drafter and introduced in the Senate. But adding anything like DACA to it would mean it would then go back to the House for re-vote. It could probably pass in the House with DACA, but only with Dem votes, and pissing off the far right “Freedom Caucus”, which Speaker Ryan is loath to do. So it’s unlikely to happen.

c. A clean DACA bill (or a comprehensive immigration bill that also fixes DACA) could be introduced and might pass both houses. This would clear the decks to allow a CR to be passed without DACA as a confounder. The Dems would be happy with this (and hell, Schumer even offered to Build the Wall). But the GOP clown car cannot seem to decide just what they want vis-a-vis immigration and keep shitting the bed every time the Dems think we’re getting close on an agreement. And any bill with DACA in it would still encounter Ryan’s issues with his Freedom Caucus. So the prospects if thus possibility seem dim right now, too.

d. The shutdown continues on until constituents and otherwise sympathetic media outlets start turning on GOP and/or Dem reps and making life hell for them until they force them to bend on something in order to break the log jam.


There’s a bit more to all of this, of course. DJFT’s complete incompetence as a mediator, his screaming ignorance and inconsistency, and the uncontrolled machinations of some of the hardliners (i.e., staunch racists) on his staff are making all of this an extra special nightmare for Congressional leaders trying to hammer out a deal and get everyonee on-message.

Probably more than you wanted to know, but that’s basically where we stand now, as far as I can tell.
posted by darkstar at 9:58 AM on January 20, 2018 [134 favorites]


The other thing is that the Dream Act's discharge petition is only 22 signatures short to bypass Ryan completely...
posted by Talez at 10:05 AM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


After the bill was filibustered last night, Senator McCaskill (D-MO) proposed excluding military pay from the government shutdown. Senator McConnell (R-KY) had this response:
"We passed similar legislation during the government shutdown back in 2013. My hope is that we can restore funding for the entire government before this becomes necessary. I am going to object for tonight, but we will discuss it again tomorrow. Therefore, I object."
McConnell has, of course, spent much of the morning protesting that the Democrats have recklessly jeopardized military pay.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:05 AM on January 20, 2018 [40 favorites]


Apologies for the typos still in that comment. I was midway through fixing them when the edit window closed. :-/
posted by darkstar at 10:09 AM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


It is very, very dangerous for us all that Kelly, Miller, Cotton, Perdue, Meadows, et al. are being allowed to dictate and control this conversation. It's Lindsey Graham's awareness of that that has made him, for the moment, somewhat less of an inert passive dishrag.

There needs to be a LOT more attention to that and a lot more noise about how Donald Trump is their fucking clueless puppet.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:22 AM on January 20, 2018 [50 favorites]


The clothes have no emperor?
posted by Celsius1414 at 11:19 AM on January 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


It is very, very dangerous for us all that Kelly, Miller, Cotton, Perdue, Meadows, et al. are being allowed to dictate and control this conversation. It's Lindsey Graham's awareness of that that has made him, for the moment, somewhat less of an inert passive dishrag.

There needs to be a LOT more attention to that and a lot more noise about how Donald Trump is their fucking clueless puppet.


This!
Right now, policy is being directed by an unelected fringe of a fringe, and apart from being unelected and ignorant they are also stupid. People need to know.
posted by mumimor at 11:25 AM on January 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


On the first day of Trump’s second year, he 'leads' his party to a shutdown of the federal government.

"Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it."
posted by kirkaracha at 11:29 AM on January 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


There needs to be a LOT more attention to that and a lot more noise about how Donald Trump is their fucking clueless puppet.


Trump, to his mirror:
“Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who’s the most stable genius of them all?”

Trump’s mirror:
“No puppet! No puppet! You’re the puppet!”
posted by darkstar at 11:31 AM on January 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


From way upthread:
5. Couldn't Twitter write in code to disable bots?

They could, or they could write code that disables most of them. But a lot of bots are harmless and either funny or informative. I don't want the fun bots gone; I just want them to have _BOT attached to their usernames. You should know when it's not a person behind the post.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:39 AM on January 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


"And it seems like Mitch McConnell is approaching Pontius Pilate levels of handwashing. Does he actually GAF or at this point is he just rolling his eyes and looking up good retirement locales for humanoid turtles?"

Mitch McConnell has never GAF about anything but amassing power. He promised the GOP for years and years that if they followed his comity-destroying, extremist tactics in the Senate, became the party of No, refused to participate in governing the country, they could achieve single-party government and do everything they wanted! He has literally never put forward policies except in opposition to what Democrats want to do when they have power. Now they've got single-party government, and Mitch McConnell has no fucking clue what to do with it, because he doesn't want policies, he just wants power. He never wanted it for anything, except to win. And in the process he's been a major factor in the GOP turning into this omnishambles that won't and can't govern, that's being eaten by the House Freedom Caucus, and that's entirely beholden to Fox News, since he leveraged all that shit to amass all his power, but his true believers were busy getting high on their own supply and now want to do all the shit that McConnell knew was disastrous and only promised as a power-gaining tactic.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 11:41 AM on January 20, 2018 [84 favorites]


The Dow Jones has been around in some form since May 2, 1885. Before I've made posts about the percentage change in the Dow Jones over administrations. My usual source of historic data has gone 404, so I ended up using a database from a financial firm that goes back to 1900. Here is a list of the percent increase (or decrease) in the first year of each presidency. I didn't include McKinley, as he started the century in his second term.

Among these Trump's first year performance is 3 out of 20.

1. F. Roosevelt +96.06%
2. Obama +34.85%
3. Trump +31.49
4. Truman +30.59%
5. L. Johnson +25.19
6. Clinton +19.81%
7. Bush I +19.80
8. Coolidge +17.10%
9. Harding +15.11%
10. Taft +13.48%
11. Kennedy +10.46
12. Ford +4.19%
13. Wilson +1.83%
14. Eisenhower +0.4%
15. T. Roosevelt -1.42%
16. Bush II -7.70%
17. Reagan -11.02%
18. Hoover -12.86% (it would go a lot lower)
19. Nixon -16.47%
20. Carter -18.28%

Some, like Reagan and Clinton, would swing upwards. Carter finished breaking even and Hoover and Bush II ended much worse.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:43 AM on January 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


My understanding is that the President has very little power to affect the year-to-year of the finance industries, and that the finance industries have worked long and hard to ensure this.
posted by rhizome at 11:47 AM on January 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


WaPo, Amid Trump’s inaugural festivities, members of Russia’s elite anticipated a thaw between Moscow and Washington. A bunch of this is just in the "hmm, that's interesting they would come out to the inauguration in a foreign country" category, but this stands out:
Another was Natalia Veselnitskaya, a Russian lawyer whose June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower with Donald Trump Jr. has become a focus of the Russia investigation. She attended a black-tie inaugural party hosted by the campaign committee of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), according to an associate who accompanied her.
posted by zachlipton at 11:50 AM on January 20, 2018 [23 favorites]




Trump still tweeting out AMERICA FIRST because the President using fascist catch phrases is now a quiet and placid Saturday morning in politics.
posted by Talez at 12:03 PM on January 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


WaPo, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Ed O'Keefe, ‘Negotiating with Jell-O’: How Trump’s shifting positions fueled the rush to a shutdown
After the president ordered cameras out of the Cabinet Room that day, the group delved into the details. Kirstjen Nielsen, Trump’s homeland security secretary, and her staff passed out a four-page document on the administration’s “must haves” for any immigration bill — a hard-line list that included $18 billion for Trump’s promised border wall, eliminating the diversity visa lottery program and ending “extended family chain migration,” according to the document, which was obtained by The Washington Post.

But one person seemed surprised and alarmed by the memo: the president.

With Democrats and Republicans still in the room, Trump complained that the document didn’t represent all of his positions, that he wasn’t familiar with its contents and that he didn’t appreciate being caught off-guard. He instructed the group to disregard the summary and move on, according to one of the lawmakers in the room, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.

“It’s like the wedding where someone actually stands up and objects to the wedding,” the lawmaker said. “It was that moment.”
posted by zachlipton at 12:03 PM on January 20, 2018 [63 favorites]


Another Republican sexual harassment scandal - Patrick Meehan, Congressman Combating Harassment, Settled His Own Misconduct Case
Representative Patrick Meehan, a Pennsylvania Republican who has taken a leading role in fighting sexual harassment in Congress, used thousands of dollars in taxpayer money to settle his own misconduct complaint.

PA-07 is already a Romney-Clinton PVI R+1 target district...except the Democratic front runner already has a sexual harassment scandal of his own and the primary seems to be in limbo. PA-7 is also one of the most extreme Republican gerrymanders in the nation.

So, if you know someone who lives in the Philadelphia suburbs (who doesn't harass women...) and might want to run as a Democrat...
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:05 PM on January 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


Trump takes credit for the Women's March: "Beautiful weather all over our great country, a perfect day for all Women to March. Get out there now to celebrate the historic milestones and unprecedented economic success and wealth creation that has taken place over the last 12 months. Lowest female unemployment in 18 years!"
posted by indubitable at 12:24 PM on January 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


That self-rimming rectal plecostamus vomiting his muck onto twitter again? Who was it, talking about the like to reply ratio on Twitter a few weeks ago? I'm excited to see this one bottom out.

You may see my comments here, but expect more out of me later, when I'm not fucking moving between hotels for the second time in two days.
posted by sciatrix at 12:30 PM on January 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


Trump still tweeting out AMERICA FIRST because the President using fascist catch phrases is now a quiet and placid Saturday morning in politics.

I think it's the thing he says when he's not really sure what the party line is yet
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:34 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


I mean, I think his instinct is to blame all of Congress, including the Republicans, and his handlers senior staff are trying to convince him not to.
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:35 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


My usual source of historic data has gone 404, so I ended up using a database from a financial firm that goes back to 1900.

That's great info, sneetches. Do you have a link to that website? I'd like to spread this around, but it's more powerful with a backing link.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:43 PM on January 20, 2018






I don't think you can extrapolate from a sample size of two. There's too much chaos in the system.
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:52 PM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


I don't really care about 2018 right now, to be honest. The Dems have plenty of time to weather that storm, if it comes, but Trump also has plenty of time to cement the midterms as a referendum on his utter disaster of a presidency. Que sera, sera.

What I care about right now is the DACA (and CHIP, to a lesser extent, because failing to fund CHIP is less defensible even by horrid R standards of "fuck the poor and their little children too," which means it's more likely to be dealt with outside of this clusterfuck). With the Freedom Caucus running their racist mouths there is no way we get workable legislation for DREAMERS outside of the Dems actually holding the damn line.

So hold the goddamn line. We'll figure out messaging for the midterms after we save the DACA.
posted by lydhre at 12:59 PM on January 20, 2018 [19 favorites]




While the government is paralyzed, the Turks march in to Afrin to wipe out the YPG who are doing the fighting in Syria for us.
posted by Talez at 1:17 PM on January 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


I don't think the government shutdown affects the US military. The US's ability to intervene in foreign conflicts comes from its ineffective leadership and incoherent policy, not a lack of resources.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:27 PM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Normal cynicism and American foreign policy is sufficient to predict the US selling out YPG / Kurdistan in general.
posted by The Gaffer at 1:32 PM on January 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


The Turks going into Afrin was in the works before the shutdown. The point is it's a big deal and not enough attention is being paid.

A shutdown affects the military in a whole lot of ways. It's not just an issue of whether troops get paid. A VAST amount of services the military relies on are through civilian contractors, and lots of that stuff gets thrown up in the air. We're not just talking about bullets and bombs; we're talking about food service and base support and child care. Also household moves, which are always happening.

For the military, this can be a big, big fucking deal.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:36 PM on January 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


*points finger squarely at the people who voted for an idiot to be Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces*
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:39 PM on January 20, 2018 [28 favorites]


Stonekettle Station blogger Jim Wright talks about a shutdown's impact on the military on Facebook. He addresses both big picture stuff like base support and individual stuff, like how a shutdown while he was in the middle of a household move put him into five-figure debt that took years to fix.

I'd also point to this Twitter thread by @HerbCarmen on the impact of a shutdown on the military, and the problem of continual Continuing Resolutions.

Additionally, as has been noted elsewhere in this thread, this particular shutdown is coming with far less government preparation than previous shutdowns. Instructions and warnings aren't happening like they have before in civilian government agencies or for military personnel, which is only going to lead to worse confusion and pain.

This stuff is worth knowing when people try to claim Democrats are undermining the military, because it's Republicans who hold the cards. They're the ones deciding it's okay to fuck over so very many people--including the troops they claim to respect--if it means they get to undermine DACA.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:51 PM on January 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


Instructions and warnings aren't happening like they have before in civilian government agencies or for military personnel, which is only going to lead to worse confusion and pain.

From a strictly US-centric, administrative perspective this is the most destructive aspect of Republican leadership. Disasters like 9/11 and the GFC are much less likely with an Executive branch paying attention to plausible threats.
posted by Coventry at 2:02 PM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


And that’s how a bill becomes a law!
posted by awfurby at 2:20 PM on January 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


From the Department of dealing-with-the-oblvious-and-incompetent:

Schumer: Negotiating with Trump 'like negotiating with Jell-O'.
posted by bonehead at 2:30 PM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


That's an insult to honest rendered horse hooves.
posted by NoxAeternum at 2:38 PM on January 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


Jake Tapper had a mini-rant on Twitter a few hours ago about how jell-o is the wrong analogy. I think that was the moment that he finally broke
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:38 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Racist, evil, incompetent, narcissistic Jell-O, yes.
posted by darkstar at 2:40 PM on January 20, 2018


"Dealing with the White House is like dealing with a bowl of Jell-O" --John Boehner, 7/22/11, during debt ceiling negotiations.

Everything old is new again.
posted by zachlipton at 2:51 PM on January 20, 2018 [5 favorites]




Everything old is new again.

Oh god, my least favorite -- or at least, the most pressingly obnoxious -- part of shutdowns is the endless recycling of gotcha quotes from the Last Time.

Dems are standing up for morally valid, fiscally harmless and wildly popular policies. They need to focus on that.
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:57 PM on January 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


Can we call this a regency presidency where DJT takes a list of things the WH wants and is all 'fuck that, you're dealing with me.' With a regency presidency, it'd be more like DJT is Kelly's flesh puppet as opposed to what DJT is, something more akin to a loose pig at the fair
posted by angrycat at 3:09 PM on January 20, 2018 [7 favorites]




Another was Natalia Veselnitskaya, a Russian lawyer whose June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower with Donald Trump Jr. has become a focus of the Russia investigation. She attended a black-tie inaugural party hosted by the campaign committee of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), according to an associate who accompanied her.

I have trouble believing the Russians are really this incompetent. Is there some sort of 3, maybe 4-dimensional chess and game theory going on here in being so overt about these shenanigans?
posted by hexaflexagon at 3:23 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Their intent was to sow discord and chaos. Being too subtle would be antithetical to that goal. They don't want invisibility, they want barely plausible deniability.
posted by Justinian at 3:25 PM on January 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


Due to #Shutdown, deployed US troops will not be able to view this weekend's NFL playoff games because armed services network is down -Pentagon

In its place will be a continuous loop of NFL players taking a knee and the caption THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE ACTUALLY SUPPOSED TO BE FIGHTING FOR
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 3:38 PM on January 20, 2018 [19 favorites]




RNC just called, said "Tammy Baldwin voted to side with illegal immigrants and endanger American troops", then urged calling her office to tell her to reopen the government and "restore health care for children", like it's been their priority all along.

*checks gingerly*
Nope, apparently there's no bottom here.
posted by dhartung at 3:50 PM on January 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


The House spent their day arguing over decorum, such as whether the phrase "Schumer Shutdown" is allowed on the House floor. The Senate will apparently go for similar drama, with Sen. Duckworth set to call Trump a "draft dodger" on the Senate floor.

The White House, for its part, put out a campaign ad declaring Democrats "complicit" in murder. This as White House Legislative Affairs Director Marc Short described DACA recipients as "690,000 unlawful immigrants," contrasting them with "taxpaying Americans" (they, of course, pay taxes and have lawful work permits). And Nick Mulvaney thinks its "kind of cool" to be in charge of shutting down the government, which seems like the sort of thing you might not want to say out loud.

What hasn't happened is much in the way of actual efforts to move forward, because House Republicans and Senate Democrats aren't talking to each other. Schumer and McConnell also haven't spoken at all today. We're nowhere. That's the most succulent summary of the situation: Senate Democrats say they won't budge unless they have a DACA deal of some kind, while the White House and House Republicans refuse to discuss any kind of deal until the government is reopened. Oh and the kind of deal House Republicans might consider, it does things like criminalize all aspects of civil immigration law, even literally criminalizing Dreamers for being poor.

As I see it, there are three possibilities, plus the utterly unanswerable question of what Trump will sign. Ryan could tell the Freedom Caucus to shove it and allow a vote on Durbin-Graham or something similar (which could start a very distressing process of "just how conservative of an immigration bill could they get through the Senate"). Senate Democrats could cave. Or we sit here like this forever.
posted by zachlipton at 3:54 PM on January 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


Russia’s Improved Information Operations: From Georgia to Crimea

Now applicable to both Georgias.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:57 PM on January 20, 2018 [21 favorites]


Their intent was to sow discord and chaos. Being too subtle would be antithetical to that goal. They don't want invisibility, they want barely plausible deniability.

Well their first preference was to get Agent Orange into the White House to get the sanctions lifted so all their oligarchy buddies could use their squillions of ill-begotten gains to both buy the United States and make more squillions.

Failing that, (veto proof sanctions can’t be removed by Two Scoops) then yes, like you said, it now comes down to how much can they wreck the place up by making us squabble about internal political divisions.
posted by Talez at 3:58 PM on January 20, 2018


The secret fourth option is House moderates could join the discharge petition. That’s my best case scenario.
posted by Glibpaxman at 4:01 PM on January 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


The most amusing part to the Ruskies must be that they don’t really have to do all that much anymore. Plenty of conservative, red blooded, Middle American reps and senators are ready to die on the hill of party loyalty and liberal contrarianism that they’re doing the misinformation and muddying of the waters better than any Facebook page.
posted by Talez at 4:02 PM on January 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


McConnell has scheduled a vote for reopening the government.

1am Monday morning.

Maybe he’s hoping he’s the only one that shows up, moves forward skipping the quorum call under unanimous consent and passes the House CR on his lonesome.
posted by Talez at 4:04 PM on January 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


passes the House CR on his lonesome

I read that as “on his loathsome”, and...yep, still works.
posted by Salieri at 4:06 PM on January 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


I'd wondered what would happen during the first genuine crisis of the Trump regime. Now I know: exactly what anyone would expect. Utter chaos, total inability of the President to do anything useful at all, the very stable genius and master negotiator failing at negotiation 101, and the extremist branch of the Republican Party basically in control and getting what they want.

I'd like to note that the government is not fully shut down. The parts that the libertarian fanatics like (that is: the military) is working just fine.

To a certain type of libertarian minded Republican this shutdown is an unalloyed good. They don't want the rest of the government to exist and function. They want the national parks sold to the highest bidder, the roads sold to the highest bidder, the regulatory agencies shut down forever, and education made into private schools for the few who can afford them and child labor for everyone else. To the Tom Cottons and Paul Ryans the current situation, where nothing in the Federal government is funded but the military, is the goal and they see no reason to ever change the situation.

I'm also going to go out on a limb here and make a political prediction, something where I've got a very long track record of being dead wrong. I don't think the shutdown will be long. Trump doesn't have the attention span for a prolonged stand off, and he knows he'll look like a chump if he runs off to Mar-A-Lago while the government is in crisis.

Once he starts getting bored sitting around the White House and starts wanting to get in a few rounds of golf and some hobknobing with his rich friends he'll give in and sign a CR that will get Democratic support.
posted by sotonohito at 4:14 PM on January 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


via @Rebecca Ballhous, here is a photo of Trump, an entirely normal human person working in his entirely normal workspace.

There's also a picture of this entirely normal staff meeting of entirely normal human staff smiling, and Trump who seems to be wearing an overcoat to said staff meeting for some reason.

And this picture showing an entirely normal walk to work by a normal stable genius who is definitely not mad he's not allowed to go to his big party.
posted by zachlipton at 4:23 PM on January 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


It should be noted that Russians are, by and large, a lot better at chess than Americans
posted by MtDewd at 4:24 PM on January 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


1am Monday is the earliest McConnell can bring the House CR back for a revote, because of the Senate's intervening day procedural rule.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:26 PM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


The Democrats who voted yes were all vulnerable Dems from red states. I surmise Schumer let them vote yes because they could be spared, and it might save their hides come re-election time.

It's also valuable to break the narrative that Democrats did this. The press calls anything bipartisan if a couple of people buck their party's line, even if said party votes 52-2 on the issue. With the 4 Republican dissenters, there is now a bipartisan vote against the CR, and Democrats voting for it, which is useful in the spin wars.
posted by msalt at 5:39 PM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Due to #Shutdown, deployed US troops will not be able to view this weekend's NFL playoff games because armed services network is down -Pentagon

People are working furiously on this, actually. The NFL has worked out a way for their streaming NFL Game Pass service to show the games at USO facilities for free, though many GIs won't be able to get to one.
posted by msalt at 5:44 PM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


here is a photo of Trump, an entirely normal human person working in his entirely normal workspace

That's the picture next to the definition of "ahoy-hoy."
posted by kirkaracha at 6:23 PM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Florida Immigrant Coalition: ".@CustomsBorder got on a Greyhound bus yesterday at 4:30pm in Fort Lauderdale and asked every passenger for their papers and to prove citizenship. Proof of citizenship is NOT required to ride a bus! For more information about your rights, call our hotline👉 1-888-600-5762"
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:38 PM on January 20, 2018 [38 favorites]


So, uhh, Chealsea Manning is apparently appearing at a Mike Cernovich event tonight.

Joe Bernstein (Buzzfeed): Cassandra Fairbanks (@CassandraRules), who is at the @Cernovich event with Chelsea Manning, tells me Manning is her friend and is there in the spirit of “fucking shit up together”

Fairbanks is a former vocal Bernie/far-left person who supposedly flipped to Trump supporter....and a contributor for RT and Sputnik.

Yea, those Russia questions about Manning are super fucking legitimate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:42 PM on January 20, 2018 [118 favorites]


Fairbanks (who is, to be clear, not to be trusted) is now going back on what she told Joe Bernstein, saying she doesn't know her and then refusing to say whether they are really friends or not: "She crashed the party. People are cool. It’s whatever. I support cross party fucking shit up generally speaking."

I'm perhaps being overly charitable in being willing to bite my tongue on fully giving into the internet outrage factory on this for a brief moment, but I'd like to hear a very compelling explanation from Manning. Because whether it's horseshoe theory or Russia or what, "don't party with Cernovich" seems like a pretty good rule for everyone on the left to follow. And this flap has been brewing for a couple of hours on Twitter now, with reporters present at the party, so it's time for a straight answer.
posted by zachlipton at 6:48 PM on January 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


Keep in mind that "A Night For Freedom" was just a fucking pseudo-intellectual klan meeting. Pop-sci racist and former anarchist Stefan Molyneux, who dropped all his principles once he figured out his white supremacy. Next we have Canada's own wannabe confederate Gavin McInnes. Also attending is noted Infowars dipshit Owen Shroyer.
posted by Talez at 6:49 PM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Consistent with our commitment to transparency, we are emailing notifications to 677,775 people in the United States who followed one of these accounts or retweeted or liked a Tweet from these accounts during the election period.

University of Washington human-centered design professor Kate Starbird has incorporated this data from Twitter into her lab's previous analyses and reached some even more disturbing conclusions:
Recently, our lab published a paper “frame contests” within the #BlackLivesMatter and #BlueLivesMatter conversations on Twitter in 2016. Not surprisingly, those conversations often had a very divisive tone. http://faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Stewart_Starbird_Drawing_the_Lines_of_Contention-final.pdf

For that work, we created a shared audience graph that demonstrated the underlying structure of those frame contests—and clearly demonstrated two “sides” of the political conversation. Echo chambers.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUAlK1oUMAAxaiA.png

When Twitter released the 1st batch of accounts related to the RU-IRA troll factories, we cross-referenced those with our #BlackLivesMatter & #BlueLivesMatter data and… some of the most active & most influential accounts ON BOTH SIDES were RU-IRA trolls.
http://faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/examining-trolls-polarization.pdf

Here’s a similar graph, made from a slightly different network property (RTs rather than shared audience) that shows retweets of RU-IRA trolls (in orange). U.S. political left on the left, political right on the right.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUAmLSAVAAAIZYa.jpg

In other words, there are paid trolls sitting side by side somewhere in St. Petersburg hate-quoting each other’s troll account, helping to shape divisive attitudes in the U.S. among actual Americans who think of the other side as a caricature of itself. [emphasis added]

Twitter has an opportunity to help people understand what is happening to us - not just to the “other side” - but to our side/ourselves. To help us become aware of HOW we’re being manipulated. Just telling us we’ve interacted w/ one of these accounts misses the opportunity.
It should be noted that Russians are, by and large, a lot better at chess than Americans

And they're beating the US across Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and the whole Internet in matches that Americans aren't even aware they're playing in.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:49 PM on January 20, 2018 [110 favorites]


It's not really internet outrage, associating with well known white supremacists is not something a serious progressive candidate does, period. End of story. Campaign over.

Whether or not Manning is or isn't a Russian tool, she's not a progressive, and not running a real campaign. This should pretty much end the Chelsea Manning career in Democratic politics. Whatever she's doing to get her name out there or secure some sort of sinecure, she's not a serious candidate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:53 PM on January 20, 2018 [77 favorites]


WaPo, Anna Fifield, Trump asked Moon to give him public credit for pressuring North Korea into talks
But Trump, a former businessman who prides himself on being a masterful negotiator, is claiming — and getting — most of the credit for the sudden burst of Olympics-related diplomacy between the two Koreas.

During a Jan. 4 phone call in which the South Korean leader briefed the American president on the plans for talks with North Korea, Trump asked Moon to publicly give him the credit for creating the environment for the talks, according to people familiar with the conversation.

(In these conversations, Trump calls his counterpart “Jae-in” — an unimaginable informality in Korean business etiquette. Moon calls Trump “Mr. President.”)
Anna Fifield is the Post's hardworking Tokyo bureau chief, though she covers Korea as well. This story looks to me like it's coming from the Blue House, not the White House.
posted by zachlipton at 6:53 PM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


That was a major alt-right event, the biggest in months. Anybody showing up with any intention other than to protest or de-platform it is sending a message of allegiance. Manning is no friend.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:55 PM on January 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


@CustomsBorder got on a Greyhound bus yesterday at 4:30pm in Fort Lauderdale and asked every passenger for their papers and to prove citizenship.

There's no phrase more American than the words "Papers, please."
posted by EarBucket at 6:55 PM on January 20, 2018 [36 favorites]


Mod note: Rein in the chatter. Especially if you feel compelled to react to the same thing repeatedly, one line at a time, over several comments.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 6:57 PM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I'm perhaps being overly charitable in being willing to bite my tongue on fully giving into the internet outrage factory on this for a brief moment, but I'd like to hear a very compelling explanation from Manning.

Could you let us know what possible [non-negative] explanation you think might be forthcoming? This doesn’t really strike me as something worth withholding judgment on, but I’m curious to hear a differing opinion.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 7:01 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Johnny Wallflower: "Florida Immigrant Coalition: ".@CustomsBorder got on a Greyhound bus yesterday at 4:30pm in Fort Lauderdale and asked every passenger for their papers and to prove citizenship. Proof of citizenship is NOT required to ride a bus! ""

Ft. Lauderdale is in the constitution free zone.
posted by Mitheral at 7:09 PM on January 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


Selectmen in the tiny, remote Maine town of Jackman (pop: 862 and near the Canadian border) interviewed 14 candidates for the post of town manager and hired the one who is a white separatist trying to create "a homeland for our folk here in the Outlands of Northern New England and the Maritimes," the Bangor Daily News reported yesterday. Today, the Daily News reports the guy now expects to lose his job.
posted by adamg at 7:10 PM on January 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Could you let us know what possible [non-negative] explanation you think might be forthcoming? This doesn’t really strike me as something worth withholding judgment on, but I’m curious to hear a differing opinion.

I don't really think there will be one, though if she crashed the party to start punching Nazis or get the venue to kick throw the alt-right out without a refund, that would be a hell of a thing. I do think Manning is someone who has generally attempted to explain herself, whether people agree with those explanations or not, and I am legitimately curious to hear some kind of explanation.

I suppose it's not so much that I think an acceptable explanation is forthcoming as a "this baffles me so much that I'm more saddened than angry" situation.
posted by zachlipton at 7:16 PM on January 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


Has anyone had any actual evidence (not hearsay) that Manning is present and in what capacity?

Charlie Warzel of Buzzfeed News is there and saw her with his very own eyes. Twitter thread here.
posted by chris24 at 7:34 PM on January 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mod note: I am sure there will be reporting on Chelsea Manning in the morning and maybe we can let that thread drop until there is further reporting to share? Reactions and speculation are filling the thread with noise.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:47 PM on January 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


NYT, After Vowing to Fix Washington, Trump Is Mired in a Familiar Crisis
Yet Mr. Trump has complained privately about his own advisers’ attempts to stiffen his spine on immigration. In the Cabinet Room meeting this month, the president erupted when an aide distributed a list of conditions that included restrictive interior enforcement measures. “I don’t know what this is,” the president said, according to a person briefed on the exchange, which was first reported by The Washington Post, and said he did not appreciate being blindsided by his own staff.

A Trump adviser painted a different picture, saying that Mr. Durbin, the second-ranking Democrat, had expressed anger at the document, and that Mr. Trump, who often plays to the crowd in front of him, was merely joining in the outrage.

On Saturday, the president was left alternately defiant and angry, self-pitying and frustrated. He argued to aides that he did not deserve the blame he was taking, but without a credible deal on the table, there was little for him to do. Irritated to have missed his big event in Florida, Mr. Trump spent much of his day watching old TV clips of him berating President Barack Obama for a lack of leadership during the 2013 government shutdown, a White House aide said, seeming content to sit back and watch the show.
Wait. How is the White House's explanation for the Cabinet Room meeting any better? In the Post's telling, Trump got angry at the policies his own administration advanced because he hadn't seen them before. The White House's spin on that is that Trump was simply throwing his administration's policy positions under the bus because Durbin didn't like them? The best spin they could come up with is "he's so malleable that a Democratic Senator caused him to get angry at his own policies?"
posted by zachlipton at 7:54 PM on January 20, 2018 [50 favorites]


Irritated to have missed his big event in Florida, Mr. Trump spent much of his day watching old TV clips of him berating President Barack Obama for a lack of leadership during the 2013 government shutdown

Ahh, the calming, reassuring feeling of “remember when I could harangue a black man for fun.”
posted by chris24 at 8:02 PM on January 20, 2018 [53 favorites]


Chelsea E. Manning‏
@xychelsea
crashed the fascist/white supremacist hate brigade party 😂 all selfies were denied !! 😎🌈💕#CrashTheFash #WeGotThis #NightForFreedom


That tweet was then immediately deleted. I just don't know what to think about this.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:13 PM on January 20, 2018 [12 favorites]




soren_lorensen: "
How long do you think the HFC can keep this kind of bomb-throwing up? Is it just a numbers game and if their caucus shrinks by n they'll lose this grossly disproportionate amount of power they seem to wield?
"

Apparently, HFC leader Meadows would be just as happy in the minority.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:26 PM on January 20, 2018


Oh, in case you were wondering, the Mar-a-Lago party still happened. Just a reminder, rich Republicans spent $100,000 just to attend, and $250,000 to sit in a roundtable discussion with President Dumbass.

Instead, he made his appearance in a 90-second video. His mouth breather son Eric was there (which was as originally planned) and they brought in the RNC Chair to help headline the gala.

The wealthy donors probably shouldn’t hold their breaths waiting for a refund.
posted by darkstar at 8:27 PM on January 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


Apparently, HFC leader Meadows would be just as happy in the minority.

Sure he would. Bomb-throwing is more fun when you're on the sidelines.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:30 PM on January 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


zachlipton: " The Senate will apparently go for similar drama, with Sen. Duckworth set to call Trump a "draft dodger" on the Senate floor."

Looks like she went there:
Yikes. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL): “I will not be lectured about what our military needs by a five-deferment draft dodger.” She labels the president “Cadet Bone Spurs.”
posted by Chrysostom at 8:32 PM on January 20, 2018 [105 favorites]


T.D. Strange: "Another Republican sexual harassment scandal - Patrick Meehan, Congressman Combating Harassment, Settled His Own Misconduct Case
Representative Patrick Meehan, a Pennsylvania Republican who has taken a leading role in fighting sexual harassment in Congress, used thousands of dollars in taxpayer money to settle his own misconduct complaint.

PA-07 is already a Romney-Clinton PVI R+1 target district...except the Democratic front runner already has a sexual harassment scandal of his own and the primary seems to be in limbo. PA-7 is also one of the most extreme Republican gerrymanders in the nation.

So, if you know someone who lives in the Philadelphia suburbs (who doesn't harass women...) and might want to run as a Democrat...
"

Meehan has since been kicked off of the Ethics Committee, told to repay the settlement, and will be subject of an Ethics investigation.

Meehan pretty significantly overperformed in the past, so his being damaged or dropping out is a major opporunity for the Dems, if they can capitalize. There are four candidates aside from Leach (the Dem with harassment issues of his own), although I'm not sure how heavyweight any of them are. This might induce another big name to jump in.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:42 PM on January 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


@xychelsea: learned in prison that the best way to confront your enemies is face-to-face in their space

I think it's perfectly plausible to believe this is what she thought she was doing there, at least. Results and message management and all that may be another matter but "secret Nazi Chelsea Manning!" doesn't seem terribly likely imho.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:43 PM on January 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


PR moves: Sen Cortez Masto [D-NV] donating her salary during the shutdown to charity.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:51 PM on January 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


So Manning is claiming to have gone to provoke a confrontation? If not, I don’t understand the relevance of these prison lessons.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 8:53 PM on January 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yikes. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL): “I will not be lectured about what our military needs by a five-deferment draft dodger.” She labels the president “Cadet Bone Spurs.”

Is she saying that he should've done the honorable thing as an American and slaughtered Vietnamese? If we are going to confront fascism, then we are going to have to confront the ideology that holds that only those who served in the military are qualified to make decisions for it — whatever else you think of our current system, civilian control over the military is one of its better values, and chiseling away at it doesn't do us any favors.
posted by indubitable at 8:58 PM on January 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


I find the posturing hand wringing over the poor military disturbing, too, but this is a dirty fight which could go very badly for the democrats if they wind up wearing the blame for the shutdown, and I can't blame them for resorting to proven rhetoric.
posted by Coventry at 9:07 PM on January 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


I wish Manning would provide some evidence that she actually confronted any Nazis "face-to-face," instead of just saying "selfies [were] denied" and leaving it at that. You'd think it'd be possible for her or an associate to capture some footage, or a verbal account, or a still photo of an argument, or anything; it'd take so little to back her up so much. To rely on our good faith that she was spotted as a surprise attendee at a Nazi rally because she was secretly or invisibly confronting them is gruesomely bad optics at the very least.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:18 PM on January 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Gross, can we not put words in Senator Duckworth's mouth? Especially in such a disingenuous way.
posted by palomar at 9:34 PM on January 20, 2018 [49 favorites]


I've been thinking a bit about "The King's Two Bodies", the medieval quasi-theological idea of the "body natural" of the monarch coexisting with the "body politic" of the realm. From the English renaissance jurist Thomas Plowden:
But his Body politic is a Body that cannot be seen or handled, consisting of Policy and Government, and constituted for the Direction of the People, and the Management of the public weal, and this Body is utterly void of Infancy, and old Age, and other natural Defects and Imbecilities, which the Body natural is subject to, and for this Cause, what the King does in his Body politic, cannot be invalidated or frustrated by any Disability in his natural Body.
The American presidency is in many ways the last remaining 18th-century limited monarchy, which isn't the same as a medieval/renaissance one or an ancien regime realm, but it retains an old model of executive power, even when it's wrapped in "We the People". There is the monarch, and there is the Crown, and there is a couple of centuries of trying to pretend otherwise within the constraints of an old constitutional settlement.

The (holiday-shortened) week began (no, really) with the whole Navy doctor thing, the assessment of the body natural; it ends with a sense of the presidency and the body politic essentially vested in competing groups of courtiers.
posted by holgate at 9:42 PM on January 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


Speaking as a (voluntary) vet: it's not Trump's lack of service that bothers me. It's not even the draft dodging that bothers me. Vietnam was ugly and awful and I cannot blame anyone for avoiding it however they could. I also don't blame anyone for serving, for about a million reasons. The military sure as hell isn't for everyone and that's reasonable and fine.

Clinton dodged Vietnam and once never tried to play military tough guy. Obama never served and never came anywhere near military posturing.

Trump dodged and still thinks he can play the role of some sort of military-savvy bad ass when he clearly couldn't pass the most basic of trivia tests about the US military. He puts on those airs behind the lives of people who are in uniform. Trump sure as shit didn't avoid Vietnam out of some Mohammed Ali-like stand on principle, either. And let's not forget his treatment of the Khan family, of McCain, and all the rest.

So yes, it is absolutely, 100% appropriate for a vet like Tammy Duckworth to call him out like this.

Also it would be super awesome if people didn't immediately equate serving in Vietnam with slaughtering the Vietnamese. Most people who served in Vietnam managed to avoid committing any war crimes.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:49 PM on January 20, 2018 [196 favorites]


While I tend to believe we glorify the military, definitely overuse violent solutions and a better future must involve radically less military and police, given our sociocultural milieu, Duckworth is quite right. There’s absolutely no evidence Trump avoided the draft because he didn’t believe in the use of military force or that he thought the Vietnam war wrong. He avoided the draft because that’s what rich white men did then if they didn’t want to risk their lives or at least be bored and poorly paid. For better or worse, military service is highly respected and Duckworth is absolutely right that Trump has no credibility on this topic.
posted by R343L at 10:04 PM on January 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


Oh post, what scaryblackdeath said. The point about posturing is also well taken and an additional part of it.
posted by R343L at 10:05 PM on January 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Thank you, scaryblackdeath. Much agreed - the problem isn't "he dodged the draft," or even, "he used rich white dude assets to dodge the draft," but "he dodged the draft, and now wants everyone to believe he should be in charge of the military."

Technically he is - but so were Clinton and Obama, and they had the sense to decide on policy, not strategies, and not try to grandstand as warlords. And they showed respect to soldiers and the families of fallen soldiers - not "he knew what he was getting into."

I don't care that he couldn't, at any point in his life, survive two weeks of military boot camp. But he could damn well show some respect for those who could, and did, and so far, the only thing he's given to the military is orders that can get a lot of people killed.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:07 PM on January 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


From the New Yorker piece above:
Kushner had an interim clearance that gave him access to intelligence. He was also added to a list of recipients of the President’s Daily Brief, or P.D.B., a top-secret digest of the U.S. government’s most closely held and compartmentalized intelligence reports. By the end of the Obama Administration, seven White House officials were authorized to receive the same version of the P.D.B. that appeared on the President’s iPad. The Trump Administration expanded the number to as many as fourteen people, including Kushner. A former senior official said, of the growing P.D.B. distribution list, “It got out of control. Everybody thought it was cool. They wanted to be cool.”
Well that's OK then.
posted by scalefree at 10:33 PM on January 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


Check out the photo of Trump "working" in the Oval Office. Unlike previous presidents who actually served in and/or won wars, Trump displays the military battle flags in the Oval Office.
...with some exceptions, presidents have largely kept the battle flags out of the Oval Office. Their decisions even follow a Chickenhawk-style pattern: The more closely a president has been involved with the military, the less likely he is to make a military-flag display.

FDR and Eisenhower, who in different ways commanded the forces that beat Hitler and Tojo, did not need the battle flags. Nor JFK, wounded Navy veteran of that war—nor the first George Bush, shot down as a naval aviator over the Pacific, nor Gerald Ford, who also served in the Pacific with the Navy, nor Jimmy Carter, who was an Annapolis midshipman in the early 1940s and then became a submarine officer. Nor Ronald Reagan, who for all the complexities of his “war record” (mainly in movies) radiated a confident toughness. Of the Boomer-era presidents (Clinton, George W. Bush, technically Obama), only Bush was in the military, via the National Guard, but until now all did without the battle flags.

The exceptions? Some photos of Richard Nixon in the Oval Office show him with battle flags, and a few of Lyndon Johnson as well. (And there are a few of JFK.) These exceptions underscore, rather than undermine, the larger chickenhawk principle: that the stronger a leader actually is, the less he needs the stage-prop symbols of strength.
...
Does any of this “matter”? No. But it’s one more step away from normal and thus worth noting. Whoever comes next to the Oval Office should feel confident enough to put those battle flags back where they belong.
As a very strong believer in civilian command of the military, I hate it when any president--Bush, Obama, Trump, whoever--wears military cosplay instead of a business suit. And I don't like "commander-in-chief" as a synonym for president. The president is only the commander-in-chief of the military during wartime. I do not have a commander-in-chief.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:38 PM on January 20, 2018 [43 favorites]


There were hundreds of Women’s Marches today. That was a good thing. At my local march, there were about the same number of people as last year. Last year there was a current of horror. This year there was a sense of determination: registering to vote, running for office. If we don’t all die in flames, we might make it.
posted by kerf at 10:42 PM on January 20, 2018 [67 favorites]


Well, I didn't get a letter from twitter telling me I'd helped spread Russian propaganda, so that's good.

Apparently this guy is having trouble with the whole concept;
https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/954739322388930562

Senator John Cornyn@JohnCornyn
Finally social media is waking up to manipulation of public opinion by our adversaries. All of us need to step up to meet this challenge, especially the Press.


Which caused this response;
https://twitter.com/molly_knight/status/954964959607205888

Molly Knight@molly_knight
One of Donald Trump’s key allies in the Senate is broadcasting the fact that he unwittingly spread Russian propaganda to help get him elected. Amazing.


I'm starting to think some of these Republicans aren't that smart.
posted by bongo_x at 1:07 AM on January 21, 2018 [49 favorites]


Turkish ground forces have now reportedly crossed the border into Syria to fight our Kurdish allies.
posted by zachlipton at 1:45 AM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


The current latest entry there says, emphasis mine:
A Kurdish militia and a Syrian war monitoring group have denied reports that Turkish troops have entered a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the Kurdish militia and Turkish forces have clashed on the northern and western edges of Afrin, but that Turkish troops have failed to advance.

Mustafa Bali, spokesman for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which is dominated by the Kurdish militia, said attempts to infiltrate Afrin have been repelled since Saturday. He said Turkish aircraft have continued to strike Afrin.
posted by XMLicious at 2:45 AM on January 21, 2018


We're just a misstep away from US-backed forces engaging Turkish forces on Turkish territory. Does the NATO treaty even cover something like this?
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:56 AM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


I assume they'd kick us out of Incirlik, which would be bad for the US military.
posted by ryanrs at 3:19 AM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Molly Knight@molly_knight
One of Donald Trump’s key allies in the Senate is broadcasting the fact that he unwittingly spread Russian propaganda to help get him elected. Amazing.

I'm starting to think some of these Republicans aren't that smart.


He is smart enough to try and create the narrative that it was unwitting.
posted by srboisvert at 4:50 AM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


New poll out from ABC/WaPo. Not good for Rs or Trump.

- 87% support DACA, including two-thirds of strong conservatives and three-quarters of Republicans. 63 percent oppose the wall.

- 58% say the economy is in good or excellent shape, the most in 17 years. However, 38% say the Trump administration deserves credit; 50% credit the Obama administration.

- 57% say the continuation of Obamacare is a good thing; 35% disagree

- 60% say the tax bill favors the rich, just 11% say it favors the middle class. 46% say it’s a bad thing for the country, only 34 percent say a good thing.

- 52% say Pres. Trump is biased against African-Americans.

- 50% think members of Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia to try to influence the election.

- 48% think Trump is mental stable, 47% think he's unstable. 21% think he's a genius, 73% think he is not.

- 70% say he fails to acquit himself in a way that’s fitting and proper for a president.

- And 36% approve, 58% disapprove of him, worst year 1 in history.
posted by chris24 at 4:50 AM on January 21, 2018 [70 favorites]


Buzzfeed: Chelsea Manning Made An Appearance At A Pro-Trump Gala
In the early hours of the party, Manning could be seen smiling and socializing with attendees, including pro-Trump Twitter personality Cassandra Fairbanks. Fairbanks, who reports for Gateway Pundit, has been a vocal supporter of Wikileaks and has publicly exchanged messages with Manning on Twitter.

Manning left before the evening's speeches ended. Shortly after her departure, another guest told BuzzFeed News that Manning was "crashing" the gala, and suggested that the former whistleblower did not attend because of her political views.

Hours later, Manning issued a tweet that appeared to disavow the event as a "fascist/white supremacist hate brigade party." Manning did not respond to a request for comment.

Others who spoke with Manning Saturday night described her attitude towards the party differently. A source who attended and who knows Manning told BuzzFeed News that "while she was not there protesting, she was there in a effort to bridge gaps between left and right."

Cernovich, the pro-Trump media personality who hosted the event, suggested that perhaps Manning — who is running for Senate as a Democrat — showed up because of a shared philosophy that's separate from partisan politics.

"I think it's clear that she does what she wants and doesn't give a shit," Cernovich said. "And I think she knows that we're the same way."

Regardless of the reason for Manning's appearance, other guests appeared thrilled that she showed up. "I truly don't want to speak for her but I guess she respects what this is all about," pro-Trump activist Jack Posobiec said, gesturing toward the room full of attendees.
posted by chris24 at 5:05 AM on January 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


21% think he's a genius, 73% think he is not He's broken the crazification factor!
posted by mumimor at 5:10 AM on January 21, 2018 [31 favorites]


some other mefite mentioned that scene in the Handmaid's Tale (the book) when people, witnessing the imposition of martial law, were transfixed by the spectacle, watching their TVs.

I feel that way all the time. Aside from ADAPT meetings and faxes to reps and plans to help GOTV in 2018, I try to cut Trump out of my life aside from this thread and my twitter feed--no NPR, no podcasts, I listen to audiobooks now. But this Great Unraveling, to steal that term, is impossible to look away from. Like the latest developments in the Middle East. Engaging with the geopolitical future is like watching out for a giant spider to land on your face; you'd like to not think about it, but a giant fucking spider is about to fall on your face.
posted by angrycat at 5:19 AM on January 21, 2018 [38 favorites]




“If stalemate continues,” he wrote on Twitter, Republicans should use the “Nuclear Option” to change the rules of the Senate and try to pass a long-term spending bill with a simple majority.
You mean the special rule in place since the 70s that the GOP would rather use to kill thousands (via removal of healthcare) than its intended purpose of passing budgets?
posted by Mitheral at 5:37 AM on January 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


There were hundreds of Women’s Marches today. That was a good thing. At my local march, there were about the same number of people as last year. Last year there was a current of horror. This year there was a sense of determination: registering to vote, running for office. If we don’t all die in flames, we might make it.

The Marches were a huge success. LA alone matched Trump's inauguration crowd, and combined year two of the marches again dwarfed it. In many places, crowds were bigger than last year. Some numbers:

Over 250 locations
NYC - 120,000
Chicago - 300,000
LA - 700,000
San Diego - 37,000
SF - 80,000
Oakland - 50,000
Sacramento - 36,000
Denver - 50,000
Nashville - 15,000
Seneca Falls - 10,000
Lawrence, KS - 2,500
Anchorage - 3,000
Homer, Alaska - 600 (pop 5,600)
Gustavus, Alaska - 90 (pop. 400)

---

@mattyglesias (Vox)
I know the shutdown is a big deal but I’m surprised yesterday’s Women’s March didn’t garner that much coverage. The largest sustained mobilization this country’s seen in decades! Vox: “We’re not going anywhere”: the 2018 women’s marches show the movement’s endurance
- Anti-Obama “Tea Party” protestors received relentless (and credulous) coverage in 2009-2010 to the point that networks decided to air a separate Tea Party SOTU response speech.
- 700 people marched in January in Fargo, North Dakota including a number of women who are first-time candidates for office. Turnout strong for Fargo women’s march as organizers push for civic involvement; shout down pro-white provacateur
- If 15,000 pro-Trump demonstrators had gathered in Tennessee to block the GOP shutdown stance that would have been noteworthy. But it was the Nashville Women’s March that turned out 15,000 demonstrators. #MeToo movement fuels turnout for women's march in Nashville
- 1,000 people in Bangor, ME including a family of five first-time protestors who drove up from Ellsworth. Women’s march in Bangor draws novice, veteran protesters
- Obviously the rallies in New York, LA, and Chicago were bigger than Bangor or Fargo but the spread of the “metro” backlash to Trump to smaller cities — which we saw in the Richmond suburbs in VA-Gov and in Huntsville & Birmingham in AL-Sen — is a huge deal.
posted by chris24 at 5:46 AM on January 21, 2018 [90 favorites]


I was kind of shocked that they only estimated 120,000 for the NYC march. I don't know if they were only counting people who showed up at the rally, or only counted the people who agreed to stay within the highly-kettled march route, but there were easily hundreds of people there for the march on every block between 86th and 59th who couldn't get in because the crowd control was so tight. People who came to 72nd where the march was supposed to start were sent to 86th, where there was a line to get in. So tons of people walked along the sidewalks and filled lower Columbus Avenue as well. I was in the official area from 12:30 till 4:00 and had only reached Columbus Circle before I needed to leave - now I wonder, was I even counted?

The NYT headline was something like "Millions marched last year, and thousands this year" - I feel like someone is asking for the actual participation to be downplayed.
posted by Mchelly at 6:04 AM on January 21, 2018 [37 favorites]


I was kind of shocked that they only estimated 120,000 for the NYC march.

I agree. I thought the crowds were very similar to last year and my wife was certain this year was bigger. From Columbus Circle it was packed and as you mentioned they were sending people up a closed off Columbus (or through the Park) to 86th to enter. So not only was CPW jammed for 25+ blocks, so was Columbus. The 120,000 number came from De Blasio's office, not NYPD, so I'm assuming there's not motivation to undercount, but still surprising.
posted by chris24 at 6:08 AM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Totally avoidable organizational fuckup causes men to throw collective tantrum, overshadows massive mobilization of women. Huh.
posted by GrammarMoses at 6:08 AM on January 21, 2018 [77 favorites]


I'm a little surprised that Stephen Miller didn't jump out in front of his local Women's March, just to make a point about how men are naturally superior at protesting.
posted by delfin at 6:30 AM on January 21, 2018 [40 favorites]


NYT editorial: The Republican’s Guide to Presidential Etiquette
When the editorial board published the first edition of the Republican’s Guide to Presidential Etiquette last May, we hoped to provide a helpful reminder to those morally upright members of the G.O.P. who were once so concerned about upholding standards of presidential decorum. Remember the hand-wringing when Barack Obama wore a tan suit or tossed a football in the Oval Office?

Yet even as the current occupant of the White House continues to find new and shocking ways to defile his office, congressional Republicans have only lashed themselves more tightly to him. The examples come so fast that it’s easy to forget that the last one happened just four days ago, or just this morning.

As part of our continuing effort to resist the exhausting and numbing effects of living under a relentlessly abusive and degrading president, we present, for the third time in nine months, an updated guide to what Republicans now consider to be acceptable behavior from the commander in chief. As before, these examples, drawn from incidents or disclosures in the last three-plus months, do not concern policy decisions — only the president’s words and actions.

And no, we’re not even opening that Michael Wolff book.
I couldn't finish reading it. This has been an exhausting year.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:48 AM on January 21, 2018 [21 favorites]


I agree. I thought the crowds were very similar to last year and my wife was certain this year was bigger.

Concur. I was basically stationary (dead stop) on 77th and Central Park West for over two hours. In that time, we moved perhaps fifteen feet, total. Crowd control was so tight that we joked we didn't even march; it was more a... stand.

There were also considerable overcrowding issues in subway stations; by 12:30, it was a 20-minute wait to exit the station at Columbus Circle, and from there, the path to join the march was unclear. Much of this was compounded by subway trackwork, since some of the primary lines which would service the march route were running express, making it difficult to find and get to the 'official' entrance points. Half my marching party wound up stuck at 125th street trying to get back down; others tried to join the route and ended up kettled and motionless on sidestreets for hours. I doubt this was intentional, but I'm sure it had the result of depressing official turnout figures.
posted by halation at 6:50 AM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


Agreed, agreed. It took me two hours to get from 81st and CPW to 78th. And that was actively moving through (because I was trying to find friends). If I had not had that motivation I wouldn't have moved a block. Everyone around me agreed that it seemed at least as big as last year.
posted by gaspode at 7:03 AM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


WaPo phone alert that woke me up this morning:
Trump suggests ‘nuclear option’
Oh god. Oh god oh god no wait
to change Senate voting requirements if
Goddamn guys you can’t DO THAT with this president
posted by middleclasstool at 7:06 AM on January 21, 2018 [87 favorites]


Paul Ryan Collected $500,000 In Koch Contributions Days After House Passed Tax Law
Just 13 days after the tax law was passed, Charles Koch and his wife, Elizabeth, donated nearly $500,000 to Ryan’s joint fundraising committee, according to a campaign finance report filed Thursday.

Five other donors, including billionaire businessmen Jeffery Hildebrand and William Parfet, each contributed $100,000 in the last quarter of 2017, according to the records.

“It looks like House Speaker Ryan is quickly being rewarded for passing this legislation that overwhelmingly benefits the Kochs and billionaires like them,” Adam Smith, spokesman for campaign finance reform nonprofit Every Voice, told the International Business Times, which first reported the Koch contributions.

The Koch donations were paid into Team Ryan, which raises money for the speaker, the National Republican Congressional Committee and a PAC run by Ryan. On the same day, Charles and Elizabeth Koch also each donated $237,000 to the NRCC.
posted by chris24 at 7:52 AM on January 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


“It looks like House Speaker Ryan is quickly being rewarded for passing this legislation that overwhelmingly benefits the Kochs and billionaires like them,” Adam Smith, spokesman for campaign finance reform nonprofit Every Voice, told the International Business Times, which first reported the Koch contributions.

Adam Smith? Come on, 2018's writers, stop trying to out-irony 2017's.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:56 AM on January 21, 2018 [26 favorites]


Adam Smith? Come on, 2018's writers, stop trying to out-irony 2017's.

Wait'll Bob Mueller hires Sandy Koufax to the legal team
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:25 AM on January 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


White House Comments Line Blames Democrats for “Holding Government Funding … Hostage”

This seems like an awfully partisan use of executive office resources...
posted by Weeping_angel at 8:26 AM on January 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


"secret Nazi Chelsea Manning!" doesn't seem terribly likely imho.

How about “Manning played like a cheap fiddle by FSB/GRU handlers operating through intermediaries”? We already know that Russia has people on the US Left (such as Jill Stein), and that their plan is to make sure that the centre cannot hold. Manning having worked through Assange would have given their handlers a lot of psychological data on her to work with, and the KGB and its successors are old hands at cultivating and managing agents (witting or otherwise).
posted by acb at 8:38 AM on January 21, 2018 [29 favorites]


Womens March 2018 comments: Much smaller and more disorganized in Raleigh. I got the feeling that people got conflicting info on where to go, as there were at least 2 places separated by several blocks that had crowds (Moore Square and Halifax Mall). There was little pre-March talk of where to actually march, and only within the last couple of weeks that Halifax Mall by our legislature bldg was the place to gather with speakers.

The result was, we didn't actually march anywhere, we were just a bunch of people milling around wondering if we were supposed to do something. Overall the mood was one of peace and continued resistance, and GOTV. Lots of signs, both funny and serious. And people of all ages. There were a lot more kids this year.

A friend up in Asheville said it was a similar feeling there. Lots of people milling around, and they didn't let them circle Pack square like last year.

Guys, I can't tell if it's a carryover of people wanting desperately to affect change but not knowing how & still feeling our way, or something more sinister. Like being controlled into contained protest areas, and making it seem not as effective.

I don't know what to think. When you look at the Instagram feed for #womensmarch2018, the pictures show the same vivacity as 2017: determined but peaceful attitude of a serious protest, but with intelligence and a dash of humor thrown in. (This is my partner and me with our signs if anyone is curious.

Any other marchers have thoughts on 2018 vs 2017?
posted by yoga at 8:47 AM on January 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


I think it's way more likely that it's "contrarian and not superduper deep thinker Chelsea Manning." That's how I see a lot of leftists getting sucked into horseshoe theory situations. Whether the FSB has anything to do with or not, a lot of counter-cultural people don't need that much of a nudge to start seeing anyone who angers the mainstream as an ally of sorts.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:50 AM on January 21, 2018 [25 favorites]


The march in Portland, OR, was much smaller than last year, even though the weather was better. There wasn't much advance publicity.
posted by perhapses at 8:54 AM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]




"I think it's clear that she does what she wants and doesn't give a shit," Cernovich said. "And I think she knows that we're the same way."
That’s probably the most spot-on appraisal of Manning I’ve read. And yeah, I think “mindlessly contrarian and self-absorbed Chelsea” is a simpler explanation than “Russian agent Chelsea” but I’m cognizant that neither necessarily excludes the other.
posted by octobersurprise at 9:09 AM on January 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


Well, if Mike Cernovich says it, it must be true!

In all honesty, that just makes me surer than ever that Manning is 100% puppet.
posted by Sys Rq at 9:36 AM on January 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


The White House staff is keeping Trump away from talking to Democrats because they don't want him make a deal and end the shutdown:

Josh Dawsey (WaPo): White House aides say Trump is being told to not give in by Mulvaney, McConnell, Marc Short, others. Wanted a full tv blitz this AM and has been monitoring coverage closely. "He's itching a little," one person says.

Trump is not the President, John Kelly has executed a coup.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:37 AM on January 21, 2018 [56 favorites]


Facebook took the time to remind me of how a year ago today Trump spoke in front of the CIA's Memorial Wall for personnel killed in the line of duty so he could tell everyone how unfair people are to him. It's just one little thing that happened in a year of outrages, but it happened.

Feels like there's a lot of perspective to be taken from that given where we are now.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:40 AM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


I think it's way more likely that it's "contrarian and not superduper deep thinker Chelsea Manning." That's how I see a lot of leftists getting sucked into horseshoe theory situations.

I think that both "contrarianism" and "horseshoe theory" are partial views of an underlying, and longtime problem in politics: "anti-" ideologies. If someone's political view is primarily or wholly defined as opposition to an existing political philosophy, they tend to resemble anyone else whose ideology is similarly founded on a "negative" political program of opposing some other ideology or political identity. They also tend to support totalitarian methods and structures and employ eliminationist and conspiracist rhetoric.

This is because to "anti-"ideologues, the "real" problem is the existence of the "enemy" ideology, to the point that their own positions are generally reducible to opposing whatever anyone linked to that "enemy" ideology stands for by whatever means and with whatever allies are at hand. At the same time, these "anti-"ideological formations lack clear, coherent positive content: what these sorts want to do, as opposed to what they oppose, is never very clear or stable. They aren't merely contrarian -- their contrariness is too specifically focused on being contrary to some identifiable "X" -- and in many ways they are not "of" the left or right so much as they are of "anti-leftism" or "anti-rightism."

In effect, their own ideology is at best pure reaction and at worst entirely empty except for hostility to those who belong to the "enemy" camp. The deepest, least examined assumption of the "anti-" ideologue is always that the world will take care of itself, that some better world will simply and easily fall into place as soon as that "enemy" ideology and anyone who is affiliated with it is "beaten." In the less advanced cases, it amounts to one-sided, but constant criticism of a particular group with little vetting of any other group and reflexive defense of anyone else opposing or opposed by the "enemy."

It is as if they have inverted Augustine's famous theological dictum, and have instead concluded that good is merely the removal of evil until no more evil is present. Thus only evil really exists, and good is something like an absence, a non-thing. And thus there is no "being good," just not being whatever you've defined as "evil." (And you wonder why Google is going wrong.)

In the most advanced cases, anyone who fails to oppose it with sufficient vehemence -- has been decisively defeated. And as a corollary, anyone else critiquing or opposed tot he political identity or ideology you oppose is an ally, and any criticism of the ally amounts to siding with "the enemy." Even as the content or the character of that "enemy" ideology or political identity changes, the "anti"-ideologue's fundamental thinking and motivation remain the same.

Think of how some leftists, for example, are consistently more interested in critiquing U.S. intervention and will side with anyone else who does so. Thy pursue no positive political program of leftism, but rather are simply "anti-liberalism" or "anti-rightist." Similarly, there are those who self-identify as "conservative" but really resemble Cleek's law that "[t]oday’s conservatism is the opposite of what liberals want today, updated daily." And there are those who identify primarily as anti-capitalist, but not very clearly pro-social democracy or pro-communist or whatever, a substantial part of what some call "brocialist" identity. Or think, more simply, of the differences between, say, anarchists who have a specific vision of anarchism and random-violence black bloc types.

They're a good warning against a tendency almost everyone has: it's not enough to know what you oppose and define yourself as the hero struggling against evil. You have to know what you support and have specific ideas about what your better world really looks like. Ideology evacuated of content is reactionary no matter where it starts from. I suspect this also explains the range of, say, "feminist" men who turn out to be creeps: if all you are is anti-MRA rhetoric or anti-"sexism," then you still haven't actually thought about what gender equality or respectful treatment of women as human beings would be and then tried to live up to it.
posted by kewb at 9:41 AM on January 21, 2018 [76 favorites]


Trump is not the President, John Kelly has executed a coup

...and the ruling party's current objective is to continue the shutdown, rendering the United States federal government as we knew it effectively nonexistent.

See also: Tom Cotton: Support for immigration deal won’t hinge on Trump
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:42 AM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


The replies to Chelsea Manning's "crashing the party" tweet all appear to be people desperately wanting the release of the Nunes memo, FWIW.
posted by Artw at 9:48 AM on January 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


...and the ruling party's current objective is to continue the shutdown, rendering the United States federal government as we knew it effectively nonexistent.

Current and past and future. That's the mantra that Ronald Reagan championed, which is yet another reason why his gravestone should be completely eroded away by piss by now.
posted by delfin at 9:50 AM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


I think it's way more likely that it's "contrarian and not superduper deep thinker Chelsea Manning." That's how I see a lot of leftists getting sucked into horseshoe theory situations.

On that note, NYMag has an in-depth profile of Manning-supporter Glenn Greenwald with possibly the best example of Betteridge's Law I've ever seen on the Internet: Does This Man Know More Than Robert Mueller? (subtitled "Glenn Greenwald’s war on the Russia investigation.")

The reporter doesn't think so, obviously, but he's willing to expend a lot of column inches in a not-unsympathetic portrait of Greenwald's deeply ingrained contrarianism—“Some Russians wanted to help Trump win the election, and certain people connected to the Trump campaign were receptive to receiving that help. Who the fuck cares about that?” Greenwald asks at one point during a sit-down interview—and how it's taken him from of the forefront of the early left-wing blogosphere to his current regular appearances on Fox News as a guest-ally.
Journalistically, the problem with this dynamic is there’s virtually no revelation in the Russia story that could get Greenwald to change his mind. Which means that while [Intercept co-founder Jeremy] Scahill and other Intercept colleagues tend to evaluate each new revelation at face value, Greenwald focuses disproportionately on debunked or overblown Russia stories. Ever the lawyer, he curates evidence that suits his argument.[...]

Greenwald’s selective outrage has become habitual. In November, The Atlantic published Twitter correspondence from 2016 in which a WikiLeaks representative gave Donald Trump Jr. campaign advice. Greenwald pooh-poohed the coordination, implying that Julian Assange was just playing his usual 4-D chess. Barrett Brown — a pro-transparency autodidact who served more than four years in federal prison for spreading hacked data and won a National Magazine Award for Intercept essays he wrote while incarcerated — was livid. “He doesn’t seem to be engaging on the actual revelations that keep coming out on Russia and Trump’s people,” Brown says. “My best guess is he’s just ignoring these things in favor of the less difficult argument that some people who are backing the Trump-Russia narrative are full of shit.”

It probably doesn’t matter to Greenwald in the end how many new details emerge about Russia. The big truth — that American society is in dire need of reform and Russia is not to blame for that — can never be dislodged by the little truths.
After the Bolshevik revolution, when the Soviets were trying to expand their international influence, Trotsky called these kinds of sympathizers "fellow travellers". Lenin called them "useful idiots".
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:00 AM on January 21, 2018 [38 favorites]


I think “mindlessly contrarian and self-absorbed Chelsea” is a simpler explanation than “Russian agent Chelsea”

I mean, if I’m making a list of people to turn into easily manipulated assets for an operation designed to weaken an enemy through chaos and infighting, I am going to start that list with the most self-absorbed, egotistical, reflexive contrarians I can find

Aka “useful idiots”

I’m sure they’re all having fun, but that’s because they’re fucking nihilists in the end who just want to burn shit down — they don’t really care what they’re burning down, or who’s handing them the matches

It would maybe be funny if they were actual children playing with toys? but they’re not. They’re grown adults, the matches are real, so is the gd lighter fluid, and we’re all stuck in the house with them
posted by schadenfrau at 10:06 AM on January 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


it's not enough to know what you oppose and define yourself as the hero struggling against evil.

Or, as a recent film universally hated by alt-right MRA bros put it: "Not fighting what we hate, saving what we love."
posted by soren_lorensen at 10:17 AM on January 21, 2018 [27 favorites]


Apparently if you call the White House right now this is the prerecorded message you'll get.
Thank you for calling the White House. Unfortunately we cannot answer your call because Congressional Democrats are holding government funding, including funding for our troops and our national security priorities, hostage to an unrelated immigration debate.
I'm at a loss. Are they saying the troops aren't getting paid? Fucking liars.
posted by adept256 at 10:29 AM on January 21, 2018 [33 favorites]


It is as if they have inverted Augustine's famous theological dictum, and have instead concluded that good is merely the removal of evil until no more evil is present. Thus only evil really exists, and good is something like an absence, a non-thing.

This is the deeply held philosophical belief of many, and I'll thank you not to go attacking it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:40 AM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Again: as a point of accuracy, troops only get paid in a shutdown if Congress passes legislation to provide for that. As yet, they have not done so. It's only day two and it's the weekend and we've got more than a week before payday, so the sky isn't falling there. But do not slip into the belief that the military gets paid automatically.

And pointedly: Claire McCaskill promptly moved to protect military pay after the cloture vote went down and a shutdown was clearly on. McConnell rejected it out of hand. A Democrat tried to protect military pay and the Republican Senate Majority Leader shot it down. This point needs to be hammered at anyone who says Democrats are undermining the military, over and over until this is resolved.

The military has to keep working whether they get paid or not. That's the reality. Congress will probably protect military pay if this thing goes on for any significant length of time, but it's good to be accurate when talking about this.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:42 AM on January 21, 2018 [72 favorites]


I'm at a loss. Are they saying the troops aren't getting paid? Fucking liars.

I mean, they're definitely liars, but also the troops aren't getting paid, because they don't during a shutdown.

Now, important to understanding that is that the troops usually get paid on the 1st and 15th of each month, and we are after the 15th and not yet to the 1st. Also, the military has some really great support systems for this kind of thing: most of the major military-affiliated banks will continue to sort-of-pay soldiers for at least a month - USAA, Navy Fed, etc usually offer some stopgap interest-free temporary loans - but those are usually dependent on the pay beginning to flow after a month.

That said, it has generally, since Roman times, been considered a Bad Idea not to pay the armies, and it would be obviously be better if someone could get a funding resolution passed.
posted by corb at 10:47 AM on January 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


I understand what you're saying but the spirit of the lie is in there. Why else say that on the White House hotline.
posted by adept256 at 10:49 AM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


If you want to call out a lie by showing someone the truth, it's better to understand what the truth actually is. Otherwise you're only confronting a lie with...what? An inaccuracy? Something that just isn't true, but it's not a lie? At that point you're only undermining your own position.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:54 AM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


Senate is in session now (Sunday 2PM EST 1/21/2018) to resume debate on funding the government. No links 'cuz everybody watches TV different, uses different providers etc.
posted by glonous keming at 11:00 AM on January 21, 2018


The troops? So aren't....other government employees not getting paid? Other government employees with less access to the many benefits enjoyed by the military? If we're all upset that the troops aren't getting paid, why not get upset about the other people? Oh, because soldiers are real Americans and, like, CDC employees and so on are bad oppressors, I forgot.

If anything, I am kind of not into the idea that we continue paying soldiers but no one else. If anything, one can probably coast a bit longer on a struggling military than on, eg, a struggling national health infrastructure.

And of course, everyone bloviating about the troops are the same people screwing over vets on healthcare; let's not forget that to most of these people, actual soldiers and sailors are just talking points.
posted by Frowner at 11:03 AM on January 21, 2018 [67 favorites]


Oh, because soldiers are real Americans and, like, CDC employees and so on are bad oppressors, I forgot.

Yeah, the whole "but the troops", even from Democrats, is military fetishism, and we need less of it
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:06 AM on January 21, 2018 [25 favorites]


The troops? So aren't....other government employees not getting paid?

From what I understand, other government employees aren’t required by law and contract to come to work whether they get paid or not. As I understand it - which please correct me if I’m wrong - other government employees have their workplaces shut down and receive an unpaid vacation. Military members must continue to go to work, and will be jailed if they do not.

The two are both problems, but very different problems.
posted by corb at 11:13 AM on January 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


And of course, everyone bloviating about the troops are the same people screwing over vets on healthcare; let's not forget that to most of these people, actual soldiers and sailors are just talking points.

The US military is one of the largest and wealthiest socialized countries in the world, paid for with my tax dollars. Military fetishism is a way to make a class distinction between those who deserve social benefits and those who don't, because otherwise, normal people with equally hazardous jobs (e.g. landscapers, roofers) might ask why they don't get the same benefits.
posted by benzenedream at 11:16 AM on January 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


@mlcalderone: Shutdown is obviously huge story. But still striking the major Sunday shows booked more than dozen lawmakers/officials the morning after massive women's march and none were women: [list of guest lineups]

Every day, the 2016 election makes a little bit more sense.
posted by zachlipton at 11:16 AM on January 21, 2018 [67 favorites]


Many people think protesting police violence is invalid if it disrespects the troops, and the White House is pushing that button hard to discredit the Democrats. It's a complete non-sequitur though, which is what I consider the spirit of the lie.
posted by adept256 at 11:18 AM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


From what I understand, other government employees aren’t required by law and contract to come to work whether they get paid or not.

You understand wrong. For example during the 2013 shutdown, only 40% of federal (non-military) employees were furloughed. Approximately 1.3 million other civilian employees were required to continue working without pay. That's about the same as the number of active duty military.
posted by JackFlash at 11:24 AM on January 21, 2018 [27 favorites]


other government employees have their workplaces shut down and receive an unpaid vacation

It depends on how they're categorised. Those who are non-excepted / "nonessential" will go in on Monday, wind down their offices, and (where applicable or possible) hand off their responsibilities to excepted / "essential" employees. Those civilians who aren't furloughed have to work without pay, same as military. In the past, all furloughed employees have gotten back pay -- eventually. But if you're an excepted employee, you can't just choose not to work, even though you're not getting paid.

Mulvaney has said that this shutdown"will look very different than it did under the previous administration," though, and while I don't know what that means, exactly, I can't imagine it bodes well.
posted by halation at 11:27 AM on January 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Many people think protesting police violence is invalid if it disrespects the troops, and the White House is pushing that button hard to discredit the Democrats. It's a complete non-sequitur though, which is what I consider the spirit of the lie.

Saw a quote this week that encapsulates this perfectly: “Racism is so American that when we protest racism, the average American assumes we’re protesting America.”
posted by Rykey at 11:29 AM on January 21, 2018 [134 favorites]


JackFlash, I work the federal government and am being furloughed. I also work at a majority military workplace. I think Corb is pointing out that the civilian government employees that must come to work do not have the law forcing them to do so. In other words, they could theoretically get fired for not showing up to work for no pay, but they could not be imprisoned in any way like a military member could be for failing to obey a direct order (and stay at work). I think it's a useful distinction.
Of course, I am anticipating that by the end of this, everyone—civilian and military, essential and non-essential—will be paid. I still have rent to pay.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:31 AM on January 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


And of course, everyone bloviating about the troops are the same people screwing over vets on healthcare; let's not forget that to most of these people, actual soldiers and sailors are just talking points.

I assume this underlies McCaskill's military authorisation strategy. So unwilling, so uncaring, are the Republicans that not even OUR TROOPS can get paid. (It has long been obvious how hypocritical Republicans are, on this point, but the refusal is a way to defang the odious Republican claims that the Democrats are the ones preventing OUR TROOPS from getting paid.
posted by halation at 11:31 AM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


> Mulvaney has said that this shutdown"will look very different than it did under the previous administration," though, and while I don't know what that means, exactly, I can't imagine it bodes well.

This is the "shoot the hostages" problem drawn into sharp relief. During the 2013 GOP shutdown, the executive branch was going to work within its means to ensure that government continued to function. This time around, the executive branch would just love to Shock Doctrine their way to some negative press about how the shutdown is hurting people. If it works, they're betting Democrats will be blamed for any calamity. If it doesn't, well, they actively hate the idea of government itself anyway, so it's a win either way.

I still think Democrats have to hold the line on this and not get psyched out by bullshit tactics like McConnell refusing MacCaskill's military pay during the shutdown amendment and then immediately accusing Democrats of HATING TEH TROOPS, but the psy-ops on this are going to be brutal.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:32 AM on January 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


By the way, as a now-furloughed federal employee, I called up my Senators and Reps (which include Gillibrand and Schumer). I told them that this shutdown will greatly affect me and my job, but it was still the right thing to do with 800,000 DREAMers in the lurch. I implore all other federal employees that feel the same to call for the same reason. I don't want even me to be used as a political bargaining chip to deport almost a million people. If you're a military member, I much more strongly urge the same action.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:34 AM on January 21, 2018 [56 favorites]


And there's no guarantee that furloughed employees will receive back pay. We did in 2013. And back in the 90s, but only because Congress expressly authorized back pay in the eventual funding bill. They were under no obligation to do that, especially for non-essential employees who weren't permitted to work. If this drags on after today, ALL government employees, military, civilian, essential, non-essential, will ALL be relying on the Shithouse Republican Congress to expressly grant back pay.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:34 AM on January 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


I’m an excepted employee so I’ll go in tomorrow morning, make sure my employees conduct an orderly shutdown of our lab, I’ll certify to my boss that we did so, and we’ll all go home. I’ll check my official e-mail once a week or so in case there’s something administrative that needs to be done immediately to protect property, including laboratory resources such as DNA collections. I’ll continue to do that as long as necessary, and I’m not getting paid for it. I’m also very skeptical that we’ll get back pay under the current Administration.
posted by wintermind at 11:34 AM on January 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


Oh, because soldiers are real Americans and, like, CDC employees and so on are bad oppressors, I forgot.

Just a huge thanks to to conservatives, and especially libertarians, for normalizing the idea of military and LEO service as a higher form of citizenship, while civil service is somewhere between disposable and evil. A real bang-up job.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:39 AM on January 21, 2018 [67 favorites]


I think it's the other way around. Here's the full Mulvaney quote:
The White House Budget Director continued: "From an OMB perspective because we are involved in managing a lapse or a shutdown, we want to make folks understand that it will look very different than it did under the previous administration. One of the things I've learned since I've been in this office is, there is no other way to describe it, but the Obama administration weaponized the shutdown of 2013. What they did not tell you is they did not encourage agencies to use carry-forward funds, funds that they were sitting on. Nor did they encourage agencies to use transfer authority. They could have made a shutdown in 2013 much less impactful, but they chose to make it worse. The only conclusion I can draw is they did it for political purposes. So it will look different this time around."
He thinks the Obama administration made the 2013 shutdown worse than it had to be, and says he's going to try to do the opposite. Now, he said this the same day he thought it was "cool" that he found out he gets to shut down the government, so I'm guessing he didn't have a particularly good understanding of the Antideficiency Act and other relevant law governing a shutdown, so some of that may change. But they've done things like keep the Smithsonian museums open all weekend that point to reducing public impact of the shutdown. Statue of Liberty is closed though; how's that for metaphors?
posted by zachlipton at 11:40 AM on January 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


I think Corb is pointing out that the civilian government employees that must come to work do not have the law forcing them to do so. In other words, they could theoretically get fired for not showing up to work for no pay, but they could not be imprisoned in any way like a military member could be for failing to obey a direct order.

How is that a useful distinction? There are a lot of things you can be jailed for in the military. For example just walking off duty to get a cup of coffee without permission. So what? Is a civilian employee walking off the job that different really? They will be fired and probably never get another federal job, perhaps lose their home, their car, etc. Are they really any more free to walk off the job than the military?

This military "exceptionalism" is BS.
posted by JackFlash at 11:41 AM on January 21, 2018 [16 favorites]


U.S. troops can watch NFL championship games, with AFN deemed ‘essential’
American military personnel will be able to watch the NFL’s conference championship games Sunday despite the government shutdown, thanks to a new designation concerning the American Forces Network.

On Sunday morning, with the NFL scrambling to supply the games to troops overseas, the Department of Defense designated TV and radio broadcasts the AFN, whose key personnel were to be furloughed by the shutdown, “essential activities.”
posted by kirkaracha at 11:47 AM on January 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Some non-shutdown news from the WaPo, Jordan’s king delivers pointed public remarks to Pence in wake of Jerusalem decision:
Pence’s regional tour is partly aimed at smoothing over relations with U.S. allies in wake of Trump’s controversial decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
I think the words they were looking for is "apology tour".

The Post also digs into the resume of Taylor Weyeneth who failed upwards to be the deputy director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, Trump’s 24-year-old drug policy appointee was let go at law firm after he ‘just didn’t show’:
“We were very disappointed in what happened,” [O’Dwyer & Bernstien partner Brian ] O’Dwyer said. He said that he hired Weyeneth in part because both men were involved in the same fraternity, and that the firm invested time training him for what was expected to be a longer relationship. Instead, he said, Weyeneth “just didn’t show.”

In a résumé initially submitted to the government, Weyeneth said he worked at the firm until April 2016. When an FBI official called as part of a background check in January 2017, the firm said Weyeneth had left eight months earlier than the résumé indicated, O’Dwyer said.
Also making hay while the sun is shining, Stormy Daniels, star of the latest Trump sideshow, took her act to a strip club. It was a scene. It actually sounds like the saddest strip club ever, but well covered by the media:
Reporters from several major news outlets staked out the strip club for hours and hours this weekend, just in case a porn star said or did something newsworthy. As if she might vault onstage, rip off her corset and — instead of clutching a pole with her pelvis — launch a news conference.
Also, the troops can watch football today, the American Forces Network, which relies entirely on civilian government employees, has been deemed "essential" and will remain in operation.
posted by peeedro at 11:47 AM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


He thinks the Obama administration made the 2013 shutdown worse than it had to be, and says he's going to try to do the opposite.

Honestly, I'm a little afraid of that. If Republicans settle in for a prolonged siege, and try to work it so the public doesn't see an immediate and obvious reduction in crucial services (save symbolic things like the Statue of Liberty), it's harder for them to understand the thousand and one things that are not being done over the shutdown period. Hell, I half expect some contingent of assholes to argue that things are going well enough and we shouldn't bother re-opening the government.
posted by halation at 11:51 AM on January 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


Mulvaney has said that this shutdown"will look very different than it did under the previous administration," though, and while I don't know what that means, exactly, I can't imagine it bodes well.

For one, I don’t think anyone is holding their breath that they will get backpay.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 11:52 AM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


Honestly, I'm a little afraid of that. If Republicans settle in for a prolonged siege, and try to work it so the public doesn't see an immediate and obvious reduction in crucial services (save symbolic things like the Statue of Liberty), it's harder for them to understand the thousand and one things that are not being done over the shutdown period.

Yeah, but “strategically evil controlled government shutdown” seems like it would require more competence, than average, to execute?

So...

I mean I think they’ll try. But.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:57 AM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Holy shit. He's seriously doing the political propaganda on our troops stationed overseas?
posted by Talez at 12:01 PM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Honestly, I'm a little afraid of that. If Republicans settle in for a prolonged siege, and try to work it so the public doesn't see an immediate and obvious reduction in crucial services (save symbolic things like the Statue of Liberty), it's harder for them to understand the thousand and one things that are not being done over the shutdown period. Hell, I half expect some contingent of assholes to argue that things are going well enough and we shouldn't bother re-opening the government.

I think the few half sane people among the Republicans are very aware that they are setting themselves up for a major catastrophe right now, where even core voters like the military and police will give up on them. Polls were already pointing in that direction before the shut-down, and it doesn't look like a lot of people are buying the premise that this is the Democrats' fault. And like shadenfrau writes above, till now, there are no signs of actual competency from anyone on the R-side in Congress or within the administration.
posted by mumimor at 12:02 PM on January 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


Lindsay Graham did accurately diagnose (part of) the problem: "As long as Steven Miller is in charge of negotiating immigration we are going no where. He’s been an outlier for years."

But Graham is now making noise about a 3-week CR tonight with an "understanding" from McConnell to move forward on immigration in the Senate. Some moderate Democrats may cave for that.

But others, who aren't stupid, know we tried that game before:
But it's not clear whether liberals would accept what their moderate Democratic colleagues are discussing. They fear Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) could repeat the exercise of 2013, when the Senate passed an immigration bill and the House didn't take it up. That’s why, without an ironclad commitment from Ryan, they are skeptical.

“It depends on whether it’s part of a must-pass bill. That is my strong preference. The goal is to have the DREAMer Act passed,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) in an interview. “I have no confidence, zero, in Paul Ryan bringing that bill to the floor."
Ryan, for his part, refuses to support anything on immigration unless Trump supports it. Since Trump doesn't know what he supports and Kelly gets to call up and undo deals the President makes, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on January 21, 2018 [31 favorites]


But Graham is now making noise about a 3-week CR tonight with an "understanding" from McConnell to move forward on immigration in the Senate. Some moderate Democrats may cave for that.

The Democrats are idiots if they think it'll do anything. They'll get it through the Senate, kick it to the House at which point Ryan shrugs his shoulders and puts it in the trash.
posted by Talez at 12:06 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


There are a lot of things you can be jailed for in the military. For example just walking off duty to get a cup of coffee without permission. So what? Is a civilian employee walking off the job that different really? They will be fired and probably never get another federal job, perhaps lose their home, their car, etc. Are they really any more free to walk off the job than the military?

Y'know, I'm sick to death of the whole military exceptionalism, too. I really am. But I have to tell you that yes, getting fired for walking off of a civilian job is qualitatively different from being put in jail and/or having a dishonorable discharge haunt you for the rest of your life.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:13 PM on January 21, 2018 [36 favorites]


Y'know, I'm sick to death of the whole military exceptionalism, too. I really am. But I have to tell you that yes, getting fired for walking off of a civilian job is qualitatively different from being put in jail and/or having a dishonorable discharge haunt you for the rest of your life.

Exactly. Getting fired from the military is a felony conviction for all intents and purposes.
posted by Talez at 12:18 PM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


They can keep public-facing things open, but eventually people are going to stop working for free. Unless they're going to start coercing military members into cleaning toilets at the national parks and processing passport applications... Ah, shit, I just realized what they're going to do.
posted by dirigibleman at 12:23 PM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


@yashar (Yashar Ali -New York mag, HuffPo)
Chelsea Manning said she was crashing @Cernovich’s party last night but here’s a picture taken in DC before Christmas where she certainly does not appear to be crashing...

@willchamberlain @JackPosobiec @CassandraRules @lucianwintrich

PIC
posted by chris24 at 12:30 PM on January 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


Jeremy Pressman (UConn prof) and Erica Chenoweth (U Denver prof) of CrowdCounting have a much more detailed analysis of the Women's March turnouts yesterday.

344 events with a low estimate of 1.5 million and high estimate of 2.4 million.
posted by chris24 at 12:40 PM on January 21, 2018 [29 favorites]


And, sorry, just because good numbers are always hard to come by -- what would the analogous estimates be from last year's marches?
posted by saturday_morning at 12:42 PM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Last year:
In total, the women’s march involved between 3,267,134 and 5,246,670 people in the United States (our best guess is 4,157,894). That translates into 1 percent to 1.6 percent of the U.S. population of 318,900,000 people (our best guess is 1.3 percent).
So this year was about half. And would be the second largest mass protests in US history. After last years.
The Women’s March on Washington was likely the largest single-day demonstration in recorded U.S. history. The only potential competitors were the Vietnam War Moratorium days in 1969 and 1970, which boasted millions of participants worldwide (and up to 1 million in the United States). The first Earth Day in 1970, which some claim had between 10 million and 20 million participants, did involve some demonstrations, but much of the activity involved local educational workshops and science fairs held at schools. And in February 2003, an estimated 10 million people demonstrated worldwide in opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, with around 1 million of those marching in the United States.
posted by chris24 at 12:45 PM on January 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


For one, I don’t think anyone is holding their breath that they will get backpay.

I'm assuming we won't, this time. We prioritized saving money for February's mortgage payment. I'm sitting tight today, but if no deal tonight, I'm coming home from the 4 hours of "wrap up activities" tomorrow and cleaning out the car, then looking into how long it takes to sign up to drive Lyft/Uber. I figure between my wife's paycheck, our minimal savings, and whatever supplemental income I could pick up, we could hold out through March if needed. At that point who knows.

Good thing I'm also not barred in Virginia, or Maryland, or DC, that should definitely make it easier if this turns out to be an extended situation.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:50 PM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


Everyone I know who has a federal job is already, or looking into, driving for Lyft.
posted by Superplin at 12:55 PM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


“It looks like House Speaker Ryan is quickly being rewarded for passing this legislation that overwhelmingly benefits the Kochs and billionaires like them,”

I'm starting to think the quid-pro-quo bribe arrow goes the other way. That is, Ryan is bribing the Koch's into funding him.
posted by rhizome at 1:02 PM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


kirkaracha: "On Sunday morning, with the NFL scrambling to supply the games to troops overseas, the Department of Defense designated TV and radio broadcasts the AFN, whose key personnel were to be furloughed by the shutdown, “essential activities.”"

If broadcasting a sporting event (one not even involving an armed forces team) is an essential service why couldn't all departments just classify all their employees as essential.
posted by Mitheral at 1:09 PM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


That’s why, without an ironclad commitment from Ryan, they are skeptical.

What would be an ironclad commitment from him, apart from him actually having done the deed? He doesn't seem at all trustworthy, to me.
posted by Coventry at 1:11 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


He would have to put his first edition Atlas Shrugged hardback written in the blood of orphans up as collateral.
posted by delfin at 1:14 PM on January 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


why couldn't all departments just classify all their employees as essential.

They can, but the more groups that are categorized as essential, the more risk that some of them will either just quit, leaving you with nobody working those departments when the shutdown is over and nobody to train new employees, or risk them going on strike (which may or may not be "legal," but there have been illegal strikes before) - getting them access to union strike benefits and so on while they're waiting.

People required to work without pay are going to very quickly start considering where they could be working with pay. If it's a skeleton crew, obviously meant to hold down the fort while waiting for the pay authorization to come through, they'll put up with it longer than if it's "everyone just keep working; no pay this week... maybe someday you'll get paid for this."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:15 PM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


T.D. Strange, where I am we have to get outside employment cleared as an ethics thing before we can start work, but that takes a few weeks at best to get approved (or so I've heard), so everyone was screwed last time this happened. Not sure if they made any changes this time because we've all been found essential this round and it doesn't matter. Funny, my attitude about not being paid on time is much better when I don't have to show up at work on time.
posted by dilettante at 1:17 PM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


As I understand it - which please correct me if I’m wrong - other government employees have their workplaces shut down and receive an unpaid vacation


There are various ... sites ... which will be put into "minimum safe operation." Civilian skeleton crews will be required to show up.

Some processes can't just be turned off.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 1:27 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


We’re supposed to get outside employment approved too, but who’s going to be there to approve or even know? Although if all of DC is driving Lyft it might be pointless anyway...

Also at least for us lawyers, they’re dont care about non legal outside work, several people I know have or had night jobs airing or bartending over the years. I assume those were cleared at some point anyway, but what they make a big deal about is other legal work, even pro bono hours have to be individually approved through the Division Director.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:28 PM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Some processes can't just be turned off.

Notably, among others, air traffic control. Although part of me thinks shutting down all the airlines would be what it takes for Donnie Two-Scoops to realize this is a Big Problem.

We’re supposed to get outside employment approved too,

Eh, send in an email to HR declaring that you're taking an outside job, and that you expect to hear back within 48 hours if there are any objections; otherwise you will consider the work authorized.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:48 PM on January 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


But I have to tell you that yes, getting fired for walking off of a civilian job is qualitatively different from being put in jail and/or having a dishonorable discharge haunt you for the rest of your life.

Okay, so this is the argument you are making about military exceptionalism, that they are special. Mind you not my argument.

You are saying that civilian employees are free to just quit their jobs if ordered to work without pay. Yet in 2013 over 1.3 million of those employees when ordered to work without pay, did not quit, but instead did their patriotic duty and worked without pay because they understood that they wouldn't have been ordered to work if their job wasn't vital.

And at the same time you are arguing that the military is different because the reason that they do their duty is because otherwise they would go to jail.

Not a very flattering picture, but then that's not my argument.

Remember this originated with the shitty and false statement that civilian employees get a "vacation" while military employees are the only ones who have to work without pay. The fact is just as many civilian employees have to work without pay as military employees.
posted by JackFlash at 1:48 PM on January 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


Daily Beast: FBI: Devin Nunes Won’t Show Us Memo Alleging Surveillance Abuses

"The FBI has requested to receive a copy of the memo in order to evaluate the information and take appropriate steps if necessary. To date, the request has been declined,” said Andrew Ames, a spokesperson for the FBI.

Reached for comment, Nunes’ spokesperson Jack Langer said, "The Daily Beast has become America's foremost publication for regurgitating the Democrats' talking points."


[FBI sees Principal GOP's kitchen on fire]
Superintendant FBI: GOOD LORD! WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THERE?
Principal GOP: A memo alleging a Deep State coup against the President?
Superintendant FBI: ...A memo alleging a Deep State coup. From this compromised and corrupted a Congress? At a time this ripe for distraction? This mega-hyped and yet inexplicably unreleased? Localized entirely within your kitchen?
Principal GOP: Yes!
Superintendant FBI: [beat] May I see it?
Principal GOP: No.

posted by Rust Moranis at 2:08 PM on January 21, 2018 [67 favorites]


The Daily Beast is on my list of media I'd never have regarded as serious before the Trump regime. This world is crazy.
posted by mumimor at 2:17 PM on January 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


Any other marchers have thoughts on 2018 vs 2017?

I was at the DC March in 2017 and 2018. 2018 was obviously much smaller (and estimates of 200k on the low end seem WAY overblown to me - think it was more like 20k to 50k). People were not packed shoulder to shoulder as they were in 2017 and you could move easily through the crowd yesterday, which was also not the case last year. The crowd only extended down to the foot of the Reflecting Pool and a bit out towards the sides and behind the stage on the Memorial steps. Signage wordplay was A+ as it was last year and it was so encouraging to see the proportion of men was similar to last year's march (if not greater).

Substantively, it was very nice to see and hear more lawmakers at this year's speech, particularly Senator Gillibrand, my home town rep Don Beyer, and what may have been a good chunk of the Democratic house caucus led by Nancy Pelosi. It was also nice to see all the POC speakers. However, with all due respect to the organizers, they absolutely have to get a handle of the number of speakers and the time allotted to them before next year's march. Speeches went over by an hour and a half this year (not as bad as last year, thank goodness, but still bad). March attendees got frustrated by the length (and seemingly never-ending number) of speeches and by the end of the speaking period, about 2/3rds of the crowd had either started marching on their own or gave up and went home. The best part of the march was the actual marching of course, and the chef's kiss was that we got to march right outside the White House. Was so sweet to know that Donny was twiddling his thumbs in there instead of attending his bribery shindig down in Florida, so there's one silver lining to the shutdown at least.
posted by longdaysjourney at 2:17 PM on January 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


No. You asked what's the difference between military or non-military walking off the job. I am saying that if you're in the military and you walk off the job, other people in the military will throw your ass in jail and saddle you with consequences that haunt you for the rest of your life.

That's just a fact that exists. I'm not saying that makes military people more important or more deserving of special treatment than anyone. I'm certainly not saying that's the only reason people stay on the job. At no point did I say military people are more important than civilian employees and deserve special consideration.

But yes, walking out on a military job has heavier legal consequences than walking out on a civilian job. That's just objective reality. That's just a thing that exists.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:19 PM on January 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


Yes, walking off the job in civil service is not the same as the military. However, civil servants don't need the threat of jail to stay on the job. The pay here is not high. We're not here for the big bucks. It has "service" in the name for a reason.

I will most likely be essential. I will work for IOUs. I will do it and not immediately walk out because what I do is important to the safety of the public and the environment. I will be doing this with significantly less help than I normally do, because many of my colleagues and most of my staff will be on furlough. They will not immediately quit either; they'll do what they have to do and come back when they can.

While I don't do this for the money, I do need money. At some point I have to find another job if I'm not going to get paid at this one. That would disappoint me very much, even if I could make more money in the private sector (which indications are I can). Nobody wants to do that, or they already would have before the shutdown. But if this drags on for a long time, people are going to have to, and that's when the permanent damage to the government happens. Right now it's just costing money (crap tons of money) and goodwill, but once the people are gone, you can't fix it.
posted by ctmf at 2:29 PM on January 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


Notably, among others, air traffic control. Although part of me thinks shutting down all the airlines would be what it takes for Donnie Two-Scoops to realize this is a Big Problem.

i suspect that air traffic controllers might remember what happened the last time a republican president with cognitive problems fucked with them and not be willing to jump on that grenade
posted by murphy slaw at 2:30 PM on January 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


Axios has a pair of hit pieces on cabinet members.

First up is Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, reportedly in hot water for going "rogue" and exempting Florida from offshore oil and gas drilling without bothering to tell anyone at the White House first. Also, Trump apparently asked Zinke for advice on war strategy in Afghanistan, so that's just great.

Then it's Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross:
President Donald Trump has put Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross out to pasture.

“Wilbur has lost his step,” Trump told one of our sources, shaking his head in resignation. “Actually, he’s probably lost a lot of steps.”
...
“These trade deals, they’re terrible,” Trump said, according to a source in the room for one of the meetings. “Your understanding of trade is terrible. Your deals are no good. No good.”
The story also cites Ross's propensity for falling asleep during meetings.
posted by zachlipton at 2:41 PM on January 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


Also there seems to be some confusion on how the pay works. Essential people have to work, period. Their time will be counted and they will be paid for it, but not until the government is operating again. So they are only in a late payment situation. Non-essential people CAN'T work, and won't be paid. When this has happened before, congress has paid them anyway, by special act afterwards. It would be foolish to count on that any time, this time especially. But could happen, I guess.

As I understand it, active-duty military works just like the civilian essential category.
posted by ctmf at 2:42 PM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


I hope we can shut down this military-vs.-civilian-worker derail given the main point is that the GOP is trying to shame the Democrats into a deal on their terms using the military as pawns rather than any inherent bias that requires self-flagellation. C'mon.
posted by dhartung at 2:45 PM on January 21, 2018 [15 favorites]




trying to shame the Democrats into a deal on their terms using the military as pawns

Yes, but both sides are misrepresenting things to make it seem worse than it is. The military is going to be paid, just late. Possibly not even late, if this resolves before payday. "Won't even pay our troops" is quite an exaggeration. Let's not let that kind of shit pass, just because it's "our team" doing it.
posted by ctmf at 2:50 PM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Mod note: Let's leave it at hashed out to the extent it needs to be in here at this point, in any case. More back and forth on it at this point isn't likely to add any new light.
posted by cortex (staff) at 2:52 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


In terms of how to understand the Chelsea Manning situation, I want to advance a hypothesis: What we're seeing right now is one big shuffle, the parts of the left that used to be either united or coexisting are no longer able to coexist, new alliances are being formed and people we assumed were all on one side are showing themselves not to be.

1. There was a kind of unity of the left of center during the Obama administration. The cultural turn - the focus on representation, cultural appropriation, etc happened both because some real improvements in US lives were happening and because the Obama administration, as the leftmost presidential administration since Richard Nixon, was basically the limit horizon of possibility. The very real questions of representation and culture were things that we could all agree to focus on - some of us because those questions were pushing us to the left, some of us because those questions seemed to be the only space available for action. As a result, it appeared that people who agreed on questions of representation and culture were allied politically.

2. This is no longer true. Questions of state power are open precisely because disaster is looming. At every level, old political alliances are no longer holding - the US and its allies and enemies abroad, domestic factions, in-left factions. More possibilities are open - the Everything Gets Far Worse possibilities, but also the "and then we elect a socialist" possibilities.

3. On the one hand, this opens up new alliances - like the DSA running people within the Democratic party. On the other hand, it also shatters things - like, in the past if you always felt that your people could never be elected, you could afford to be totally cynical and not care. Right now, if you feel that the left of the Democratic party is being shut out by the right, at a moment when the left can win, you're going to be fucking furious. Or, alternatively, if you feel like people on the left are sabotaging our chance to pull back from the brink, also furious. This type of conversation "you are too radical!" "No, YOU are too right wing!" - has been more theoretical in the past because possibilities were both less terrifying and more limited.

4. On a smaller level, since real power is possible for the left of center, differences in how you think you get power are going to matter a lot more, and this is where I think the Chelsea-Manning-at-the-party bit comes in.

Looking at her twitter and having some casual familiarity with what she's said in the past, I think it's unlikely that she is a Sekrit Alt Right person. (And I do want to leave open the possibility that all this stuff is actually some kind of elaborate, stupid attempt at trolling the right.)

But it seems pretty plausible to me that some white people on the left think (very mistakenly, IMO) that a way forward is to try to pry off the more populist or culturally congenial members of the alt-right and form some kind of erstwhile alt-right/populist-left faction - that some people on the left feel that the racism and xenophobia of the alt-right are not really baked in but are the emergent effects of our old friend economic anxiety. I think this might be particularly true where there are strong cultural or class affinities.

Basically, in the past it was easy to assume that everyone on the left - whatever their other failings - would have no truck with white identity movements. But the more power white identity movements have, the more tempting it will be to some white leftists to engage with them, and white leftists who had weak commitments to anti-racism before will be particularly at risk.

I think that it's tempting to read new situations through old ones - understanding Greenwald or whomever as pawns of Russia or consciously authoritarian. I don't think that's the case; I think they are people who believe - again, IMO wrongly - that the way to the kind of left wing future they want is through the white working class, and they believe that the white working class is best represented by the populist right. (Leaving out left or liberal working class whites, working class POC, rich people who love Fox, etc.)

I think that what's going on in re Assange, Greenwald, etc, isn't that they aren't leftists; it's that they are leftists, but they either consciously put white people first (Assange, I suspect) or grossly underestimate racism (Greenwald) and, in the case of Assange, are looking for a populist but anti-feminist leftism. And we tend not to recognize this because we don't understand that a big realignment has taken place and the issue is racial factionalism within the left.

I'm still hopeful that the Chelsea Manning situation is foolery rather than wrongdoing, but if it's wrongdoing, I would bet on white-left style wrongdoing.
posted by Frowner at 3:35 PM on January 21, 2018 [51 favorites]


Also, like, racism within the white left - it's not "factionalism" like "I'm a socialist!" "I'm an anarchist!", it's factions in the sense of there being a racist white left faction.
posted by Frowner at 3:41 PM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


So in the "what the fuck's going on with the NYT coverage?" there's this Medium piece that draws a connection between owner and tobacco magnate Carlos Slim and the Russian oligarchs, apparently because tobacco remains one of their critical businesses.

Don't know how much credence to give it, but it's interesting.
posted by emjaybee at 3:46 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


The Stormy Daniels / Forbes Magazine thing is, of course, the most Trump thing ever, but this has to rank in the top five:

Mar-a-Lago guests paying $100k or more per couple to attend Trump’s inauguration anniversary political fundraising fala—which Eric & Don Jr attended in President Trump’s stead due to the shutdown—are apparent “traumatized” by scooping caviar with plastic spoons.

Just wait until this poor plastic-spoon-using caviar eater sees the rusty steel blade that awaits her at the guillotine.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:04 PM on January 21, 2018 [57 favorites]


Also, like, racism within the white left - it's not "factionalism" like "I'm a socialist!" "I'm an anarchist!", it's factions in the sense of there being a racist white left faction.

Are you talking about explicitly racist white left factions? I am not aware of those, but I am both a babe in the woods and constantly worried about implicitly racist left factions.
posted by The Gaffer at 4:24 PM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


The WaPo has some behind the scenes in the White House showing how Trump's inabilities and insecurities are a net negative on the shutdown negotiations and his administration is actively trying to keep him out of the process, Trump keeps low public profile during shutdown, but is ‘itching’ to be involved:
Aides and advisers also reminded Trump of the perils of getting too deeply involved at this point, noting Congress is more unpopular than him and talking about some of the unpleasant experiences he has had negotiating with Capitol Hill. Privately, some of his closest advisers admit the president is an erratic dealmaker who can unexpectedly overturn negotiations like a flimsy coffee table.
...
He complained about not going to Florida for the weekend, where the first anniversary of his inauguration was to be feted with a lavish gala, while also telling advisers his administration was doing better on handling the shutdown than Obama’s did in 2013, according to people who spoke to him.

Trump was determined to show he was working, posing Saturday for a photo behind his desk, wearing a white “Make America Great Again” golf hat. To the click of cameras, he strode resolutely down the portico and even made a rare venture up to the office of White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, where he addressed a coterie of top aides.

The photos were released, in an unusual move, and were lampooned by some social media. Trump’s desk was empty.

Few things infuriate Trump more than accusations that he is lazy, and he has grown angry with recent depictions of his administration as chaotic. His poll numbers are historically low for a president finishing his first year, and he has complained to advisers, and on Twitter, that the shutdown could hurt the economy.
posted by peeedro at 4:47 PM on January 21, 2018 [27 favorites]


House GOP warns: We’re no rubber stamp for Senate DACA fix (The Hill)

I'm in Boston and even I can hear Lindsay Graham screaming in his office right now.
posted by Talez at 4:58 PM on January 21, 2018 [16 favorites]


Former GOP media strategist Rick "gut you like a fish" Wilson holds absolutely zero punches.
Miller is the classic rat inside the walls of government, a sneaky little crapweasel who plays the D.C. game to its hilt, pursuing his agendas instead of those that would be good for either his principal or for the country. I can only imagine what Miller was like when he was at Duke with pudgy race-baiter and Nazi fanboy Richard Spencer. Can’t you see them in some dorm room bull session, smoking weed and working through their plans to depopulate the Rodina of anyone darker than a latte? That, and Spencer trying to find a girl to throw Miller some mercy sex so he could get the dead-eyed creeper out of his dorm room.
Tell us what you really think, Rick.
posted by Talez at 5:06 PM on January 21, 2018 [55 favorites]


Mod note: The Chelsea Manning discussion is officially chasing its own tail. When there is new information, we can circle back to it if necessary, but going 10 rounds on exactly how bad an idea attending a Nazi rally was or whose side we should expect her to be on or what exactly is motivating her bad decisions or whatever is super, super tedious.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:28 PM on January 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


in the past it was easy to assume that everyone on the left - whatever their other failings - would have no truck with white identity movements

That assumption wouldn't have been safe in the past, either, though. People are just starting to come to terms with the horseshoe theory and they aren't ready to acknowledge that it's always been true. For instance, consider the Suffragettes' use of explicitly racist arguments to win support for female suffrage, or German socialists' belief that antisemites were practically fellow travellers. I'm glad people are paying more attention to this sort of thing, but I wish it was out of principle and not just a feeling of betrayal.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:32 PM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


There's rumblings of a skeletal deal to end the shutdown tonight:

Seven Dennis (Bloomberg):
The thin gruel for Dems: McConnell would offer to bring immigration bill to the floor after Feb 8 if no deal by then
Not necessarily waiting on Trump's imprimatur
No House commitment
No Trump commitment

Democrats pocket CHIP, get nothing but McConnell's worthless promise to hold a Senate vote on DACA. Nothing from Trump or Ryan, we're right back here on Feb. 8th. Vote still scheduled for 1am.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:47 PM on January 21, 2018


People are just starting to come to terms with the horseshoe theory and they aren't ready to acknowledge that it's always been true. For instance, consider the Suffragettes' use of explicitly racist arguments to win support for female suffrage, or German socialists' belief that antisemites were practically fellow travellers. I'm glad people are paying more attention to this sort of thing, but I wish it was out of principle and not just a feeling of betrayal.

For this to work the way you want it to, racism would have to be a characteristic of the poles and not of the center of the spectrum, and that's total fantasy. The "center" of the time was no less racist than either pole, and this is nothing but an attempt to pretend that white supremacy was not prevalent across the board in the US and that antisemitism was not widespread to the point of near-universality in interwar Germany.
posted by Pope Guilty at 5:53 PM on January 21, 2018 [36 favorites]


It's possible to be a socialist without being an anti-Semite or a pro-voting rights person without being a racist. The horseshoe theory is wrong because it presumes that all "extreme" positions -- extreme relative to what? -- are equally bad.

At the very least, it's missing an explanation for why certain kinds of political positions or ideologies share the same flaws, and to the extent is has one it's essentially a rationale for a fuzzy liberal centrism as a kind of Golden Mean. But everyone from Martin Luther King, Jr. to William Jennings Bryant could be called an extremist depending on who's defining "the center" and what the political norms are. Horseshoe theory is too reductive a model to have much explanatory power.
posted by kewb at 5:56 PM on January 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


That potential deal is a 3 week CR instead of a 4 week CR, plus McConnell promises to bring an immigration bill to the floor but without a promise of the same by Ryan?

So basically its a 3 week CR instead of a 4 week CR.
posted by Justinian at 5:57 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


Dear Senate Democrats:

RYAN 👏 WILL 👏 NEVER 👏 BRING 👏 DACA 👏 TO 👏 THE 👏 FLOOR

There's no maybe. There's no compromise. There's no cajoling. If he brings DACA to the floor his speakership is over. He's not going to do it.
posted by Talez at 5:58 PM on January 21, 2018 [46 favorites]


I don't think the left and the right on the poles are the same. But I do believe in a modified horseshoe theory. The modification is this. People on the "extreme" however you define it, are more vulnerable to certain other extreme views. This does not mean that only the extreme left and right are racist- it just means that some people who are attracted to the very far left and the very far right tend to be attracted to other more "extreme" views, some fairly mild in consequence, others like racism, sexism etc more severe. It doesn't mean that the extreme left is as bad as the right, that is inherently false. It just means those on the left have to be careful and examine themselves to make sure that they don't fall into the same logic holes the right does when it justifies it's own bullshit.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 6:02 PM on January 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


I just called my Democratic senator and urged her to stay strong for the Dreamers AND CHIP. Have you called YOUR Democratic Senator(s) and urged them to stay strong for the dreamers and CHIP?
posted by rockindata at 6:03 PM on January 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


There's no maybe. There's no compromise. There's no cajoling. If he brings DACA to the floor his speakership is over. He's not going to do it.

So what would you propose the Senate Democrats push for?
posted by saturday_morning at 6:25 PM on January 21, 2018


Senate just gavelled closed for the night. No deal. Reopens at 10 tomorrow, cloture vote scheduled for noon.
posted by persona at 6:27 PM on January 21, 2018


So what would you propose the Senate Democrats push for?

An up or down vote on DACA. Extension of CHIP. That's it. Like Republicans have repeatedly promised.

This isn't going to be won with a backroom handshake, because no Republican is negotiating in good faith. It's going to be won by who gets the blame over the next week, and eventually will have to cave. Democrats can't beg off the fight now with nothing, and they're making entirely reasonable demands.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:31 PM on January 21, 2018 [32 favorites]


Apparently Jeff Flake is the most gullible moron in America: @JeffFlake is back in the GOP fold, based on assurances from @SenateMajLdr for action after govt reopened, he says on Senate floor.

Also, tomorrow will be a shitshow. Non-essential employees will have to clock in for 4 hours of "wrap up activities"...while they'll be voting in the middle of the workday whether to have a government. Does everyone take a long lunch and hope there's a deal when we get back? Say fuck it and go home at noon regardless? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:40 PM on January 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


I’m going home and having a Shutdown Old Fashioned, which is just a double with extra cherries.
posted by wintermind at 6:44 PM on January 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


So what would you propose the Senate Democrats push for?

If it were me? All Tuesday Group members sign the discharge petition for the Dream Act in the House.

Up or down vote on Dream Act in both House and Senate. Then the CR gets passed.
posted by Talez at 6:48 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


Are Congressional staffers essential employees? Will anyone be answering phones tomorrow?
posted by mcduff at 6:52 PM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


McConnell's offering a poisoned chalice, his promise for a DACA vote depends on Dems agreeing in advance not to shutdown the government on Feb 8th. Unilateral disarmament, becuase there's still zero buy-in from the House or Trump.

TRANSCRIPT of McConnell/Schumer floor remarks.
Note the wording of McConnell's pledges here: If 2/8 CR passes and no DACA deal before it expires, will bring up immigration bill -- as long as there is no further shutdown.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:53 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


The endgame, to me, looks to be some variation of "Senate votes to re-open the government with 6 year CHiP + delaying the same Obamacare taxes that always get delayed, Senate passes immigration bill, House doesn't take it up & DACA expires". Democratic Senators can keep the government closed and get a Senate passage in return but I see no scenario under which they can successfully insist on passage in the House. I fear DACA is dead.
posted by Justinian at 7:29 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


But I do believe in a modified horseshoe theory. The modification is this. People on the "extreme" however you define it, are more vulnerable to certain other extreme views. This does not mean that only the extreme left and right are racist- it just means that some people who are attracted to the very far left and the very far right tend to be attracted to other more "extreme" views, some fairly mild in consequence, others like racism, sexism etc more severe.

I think this is less of a modification and more of a repudiation; the whole idea of horseshoe theory is that there is an extreme left and extreme right that look indistinguishable to the naive eye but are distinct (hence the 'horseshoe'). This modification (that I agree with) implies that the racism or authoritarianism on the left and right aren't different kinds of racism et al. but a consequence of holding unmoderated views.
posted by Merus at 7:42 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


McConnell's offering a poisoned chalice, his promise for a DACA vote depends on Dems agreeing in advance not to shutdown the government on Feb 8th. Unilateral disarmament, becuase there's still zero buy-in from the House or Trump.

Given the Democrats have usually fallen for the unilateral disarmament ploy, it's actually kind of refreshing to see them learn.

Of course, Twitter is mad that the Democrats even offered a deal on the wall, even if it they figured they'd offer it as part of a deal designed to get slapped down, but Twitter is the medium for Seth Abramson's red threads joining the dots, not for politics as she is played.
posted by Merus at 7:46 PM on January 21, 2018


Politico’s interactive who’s-who of the 270 people connected to the Russia probes.
posted by emelenjr at 7:46 PM on January 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


Have they learned? The vote on this plan may be tomorrow. A Senate vote for Paul Ryan to kill DACA isn’t a win, or learning.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:51 PM on January 21, 2018


Deliberately giving up your only leverage because you trust Republicans to hold up their end of the deal is what they may have learned not to do. If Paul Ryan kills DACA, the Democrats just say that the Republicans 'broke the deal' and they're not going to help keep the government open, and the Republicans and their bullshit are on their own.

The naive story is: Republicans are in power, and the government shut down, therefore it's the Republican's fault. The sophisticated story is: the Republicans lit a fuse, but Trump allowed Democrats to tie that fuse to the funding bill. Democrats could pass it, but Republicans never should have lit the fuse to kill CHIP and DACA, so it's the Republican's fault. (The NYT story is: we're establishment conservatives, therefore it's the Democrats' fault, no matter what Paul Krugman says.)
posted by Merus at 7:58 PM on January 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


@StevenTDennis: McConnell by my count is 7 short of 60 votes without more flippers.

Assuming that's reasonably accurate, it means McConnell got basically nothing, since he had 50 votes before. Flake and Graham were willing to go for a deal, but basically no more Democrats caved. That's a good thing. Democrats aren't giving up unless they actually get something beyond a promise (ask, say, Jeff Fake or Susan Collins how those promises work out).

What I don't understand is why that clip of McConnell objecting to continued military pay, a short-term CR, etc... isn't an ad airing every five minutes on every channel. Tom Steyer can pour millions into his self-indulgent impeachment ads, but we can't have an immediate barrage of ads attacking Republicans for this?

@sahilkapur: .@RepMarkMeadows says @SpeakerRyan has promised him the House won't be involved in "any commitment" on immigration in the Senate to re-open the gov't.

Unless that changes, and changing it could threaten Ryan's Speakership, I don't see how there will be a deal at all.
posted by zachlipton at 8:11 PM on January 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


NYT, A President Not Sure of What He Wants Complicates the Shutdown Impasse
When President Trump mused last year about protecting immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children, calling them “these incredible kids,” aides implored him privately to stop talking about them so sympathetically.

When he batted around the idea of granting them citizenship over a Chinese dinner at the White House last year with Democratic leaders, Mr. Trump’s advisers quickly drew up a list of hard-line demands to send to Capitol Hill that they said must be included in any such plan.

And twice over the past two weeks, Mr. Trump has privately told lawmakers he is eager to strike a deal to extend legal status to the so-called Dreamers, only to have his chief of staff, John F. Kelly, and senior policy adviser, Stephen Miller, make clear afterward that such a compromise was not really in the offing — unless it also included a host of stiffer immigration restrictions.

As the government shutdown continued for its second day on Sunday, one thing was clear to both sides of the negotiations to end it: The president was either unwilling or unable to articulate the immigration policy he wanted, much less understand the nuances of what it would involve.
Please add this to the "'ll believe that Trump is growing into the presidency when his staff stops talking about him like a toddler" pile.
posted by zachlipton at 8:27 PM on January 21, 2018 [38 favorites]


Of course, Twitter is mad that the Democrats even offered a deal on the wall, even if it they figured they'd offer it as part of a deal designed to get slapped down, but Twitter is the medium for Seth Abramson's red threads joining the dots, not for politics as she is played.

Offering a deal on the wall was a phenomenally dumb thing to do, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played". There is no benefit to offering to build the wall as part of a deal even if you're certain the deal won't be taken. Nobody anywhere is going to be swayed to the side of reason by the fact that some Democrats were willing to cave in the face of pressure, nor by the fact that Trump is too stupid and obstinate to take yes for an answer. There's no new information in any of that. But the public knowledge that there are Democrats literally saying "We'll build him a wall. Tell us how high you want it." is just a blast of ice water in the face of the momentum we're trying to build here. Doing things that make people think that the difference between Republicans and Democrats is as small as possible is the surest way to get people who would vote left but feel disenfranchised to stay the hell home, as we've seen time and time again. Either this move was actually intended to depress voter turnout, or it was simply a colossal, frustratingly stupid misstep.
posted by IAmUnaware at 8:30 PM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


From the Life Imitates Art Department, the Miami Herald has an article called Some things should be obvious when you sleep with a porn star, but here we are, written by…Carl Hiaasen.
Twenty life lessons to be learned from the Stormy Daniels/Donald Trump affair, as illuminated by the Wall Street Journal, Slate.com and, fittingly, InTouch Weekly magazine:

1. Don’t have a fling with a porn star if you’re even vaguely thinking about running for president someday.

2. Even if you have no plans to run for president, don’t invite a porn star to ride in your golf cart at a celebrity tournament in Lake Tahoe while your wife is home with a new baby.

3. Don’t pose for a photograph with the porn star in the “gift lounge” of an adult-film company.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:45 PM on January 21, 2018 [31 favorites]


Maybe I'm just a liberal sellout, but I'd be fine with a deal (assuming nothing horrible in the details) that funds the government, funds CHIP, gives Dreamers permanent legal status and a pathway to citizenship, gives Dreamers' parents work permits and protection from deportation, shifts the 50,000/year diversity lottery slots to protect people who Trump is kicking off TPS, and a couple billion in border security money. Trump can call the border security money part of the wall, and Democrats can say it's for technology and sensors and fancy dirigibles and whatever.

That deal isn't my ideal vision for the world, but it would help millions of people and would have bipartisan majority support in both chambers. I don't see how an effort centered around "give Republicans absolutely nothing" will be successful. If a voter is going to stay home because Democrats cut that deal, I don't know how you get that person to show up.

And then, yes, completely eliminating ICE as an agency and rebuilding immigration enforcement from the ground up needs to move to a very high position on the Democratic priority list for the future.
posted by zachlipton at 8:46 PM on January 21, 2018 [59 favorites]


Offering a deal on the wall was a phenomenally dumb thing to do, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played". There is no benefit to offering to build the wall as part of a deal even if you're certain the deal won't be taken.

What no. The options are (or were) offer money for the stupid wall and get DREAM and CHIP and keep the government open. That is a phenomenal deal for the Democrats (and the nation). You take that now and kill funding for the stupid wall after 2018.

Sheesh.
posted by notyou at 9:01 PM on January 21, 2018 [40 favorites]


At this point the thing that bothers me the most about the whole Stormy Daniels story is the way every headline and tweet and reference has to specify "porn star" as a barely-coded-at-all label for any number of shitty stereotypes.

Like I don't even care about the fact that it happened. Regardless of all the other shittiness of Trump's behavior, this was by every account consensual. It pales in comparison to countless other points of his behavior with women. Is it shitty that he had an affair behind his wife's back? Sure. Is the cover-up extra shitty? Yeah. Are the details this has revealed about him gross and icky and ew? Absolutely.

But there's literally nothing about the "porn star" factor here that matters at all other than the chance to throw around a cheap stereotype label and chortle about it. They're all interchangeable, right? Isn't that great when people keep taking away all our other fun stereotypes about whole groups of people?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:03 PM on January 21, 2018 [30 favorites]


Offering a deal on the wall was a phenomenally dumb thing to do, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played". There is no benefit to offering to build the wall as part of a deal even if you're certain the deal won't be taken. Nobody anywhere is going to be swayed to the side of reason by the fact that some Democrats were willing to cave in the face of pressure

Of course not, but this isn't about swaying people with arguments. 'We offered a compromise and the other side slapped it down' is a useful card to have when you're trying to get the public to blame the other guy, especially when that deal looked credible. Reason left for Canada some time ago.

That reluctant Democrat can console themselves with voting for the grassroots people they should have been voting for 20 years ago so they'd be in the position to be a Senator now.
posted by Merus at 9:04 PM on January 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


Speaking of eliminating ICE... Arizona Republic, Trump administration's immigrant-crime hotline releases victims' personal information
The same week the Trump administration opened a hotline last April to support victims of crimes by immigrants, Elena Maria Lopez called to report a complaint against her ex-husband.

At first, Lopez kept getting a busy signal.

But finally someone answered. For the next 20 minutes, Lopez provided a detailed account, accusing the Dutch immigrant of marrying her to get a green card and then threatening to harm her if she contacted immigration officials.

What happened next shocked Lopez.

Not only did Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency that operates the hotline, decline to take action, but immigration authorities also released much of the private information she provided. This includes a confidential internet phone number she fears will now make it easier for anyone to locate her in New Jersey, where she has a protected address set up for domestic-violence victims.

Lopez is one of hundreds of people whose private information was inappropriately released by ICE when the agency posted call logs to the hotline on its website, a clear violation of the agency's own policies against divulging private information, as well as privacy laws intended to protect individuals who provide sensitive information to the government.
You take that now and kill funding for the stupid wall after 2018.

The White House seems to have just today figured out this was a possibility. Marc Short is making noise about demanding an $18 billion one-year appropriation so they'd actually be guaranteed to get the money.

Right now, there's no deal and leadership won't advance any kind of immigration bill, but if the deal really does end up coming down to something resembling "Democrats get all of the above in exchange for $18B guaranteed for border security," that's going to put Democrats in a tight spot.
posted by zachlipton at 9:09 PM on January 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


I am in favor of The Wall! It will result in amazing new tech we can apply where it's actually needed. Sick kids get better, kids raised in our nation, the finest nation on earth, get to stay and make our nation stronger, yes! The wall is stupid, let them have it. The healthy kids and immigrants make us mighty. Build whatever wall you goddamn want, just make CHIP and DACA happen, but they won't. Assholes. Racist, nativist assholes.
posted by Slap*Happy at 9:10 PM on January 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


CHIP is at 90%+ popularity, DACA is 80%+ and Building the Wall is somewhere south of 30%.

The leverage, and time, is on the Dems’ side here...as long as they don’t cave.
posted by darkstar at 9:10 PM on January 21, 2018 [40 favorites]


Merus, i disagree.

a useful card to have when you're trying to get the public to blame the other guy,

Trump & Co hand out lots of cards like this because they are worthless. There is no public. There are republicans, there are democrats and there are people who don't care. If the "President & family obviously conspired against their own country and are aiding Russia" card hasn't alreafy swayed someone, then they can't be reached with "Democrats are trying to compromise" card won't.
Plus even if they build a wall, the next republican will chant "build it bigger" (see defense spending). Because "build that wall" is really "we fear and hate brown people". That's their card. It's too many syllables to chant.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 9:29 PM on January 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


My feelings on the wall are basically that, while I think it’s a horrible, racist, ridiculous idea that won’t actually do anything, if giving the toddler president his stupid wall gets CHIP funded and the Dreamers citizenship, I’m fine with that.

The thing about the wall is that it really won’t do anything that’s not already being done. There are already fences and people get over/under those. And since the wall is pointless, and if it will make him happy enough to cave on the stuff we want, fine. Claw back the money later. It’s not like the damn thing is going to get built overnight, anyway. And there are much worse things than the wall that he wants. I definitely don’t want Dems bargaining with those.
posted by Weeping_angel at 9:33 PM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


$18B isn't what it used to be. That's like 6 weeks of the Iraq war at its height.
posted by Coventry at 9:41 PM on January 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Offering a deal on the wall was a phenomenally dumb thing to do, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played".

Offering a deal on the wall in order to get DACA is a net win, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played".

The wall is shit and any move to fund it is a loss. But for a brief moment, it looked like there might be a chance to get White House support behind DACA, and that would be an incredible win for human rights. The Trumpists have absolutely no idea how to go about building the wall they say they want, and so even if a large sum is allocated for it, there's a pretty good chance they won't have any idea what to do with it. And even if they build a wall, walls can be torn down. All walls tumble eventually. In contrast, the lives of Dreamers are being torn apart every day, right now, irreparably. Once these Americans are deported, their lives are forever changed.

The political reality is, Democrats have very little power right now. We are fighting a rearguard action on basic civil liberties and human rights. Losing ground on the wall sucks, but that territory is on our flank. The right of Americans who have lived here their entire lives to live without fear of deportation is right in the center of that theater, and quite frankly keeping the Trumpists from building a wall is a Pyrrhic victory if it comes at the cost of the Dreamers. Personally, I'm surprised and impressed that Schumer and Pelosi recognized that. It suggests that their calculus is not purely the calculus of political power, as many would have us think, but instead is rooted in actual policy goals for defending our civil liberties.
posted by biogeo at 9:50 PM on January 21, 2018 [46 favorites]


Offering a deal on the wall in order to get DACA is a net win, and anyone who can't see that shouldn't be talking down their nose at others about "politics as she is played".

It's not that simple. Well, first let me say that as can be seen from this thread I think tactically the Democrats have so far played this pretty well. But you're very much eliding the fact that giving anything towards the wall gives Trump a major victory which will be used, possibly successfully, to mobilize his base in 2018 and 2020 if it comes to that. A mobilized Republican base keeping the House in Republican hands in 2018 would be a disaster of unmitigated proportions.

McConnell and the Republicans showed during the Obama years that the single most effective tactic in combating your opponent is to prevent them from achieving victories at all costs. Not even if they offer you a good deal, as Obama did by offering 10 dollars of spending cuts for every dollar of tax increases in a deficit reduction plan which was rejected out of hand. Not even when Obama nominated exactly the guy that McConnell said would easily be confirmed for the Supreme Court.

Giving money for a bullshit wall which can be cancelled later in exchange for DACA may turn out to be the best thing to do from a cost/benefit analysis where Democrats decide they cannot be as purely politically amoral like the Republicans under Obama. But giving Trump the wall would be a major, major, major event and a big win for him.

Wall + tax cuts + booming economy is an ad campaign a competent candidate could easily turn into a second term. The Obamacare failure would be forgotten with those things to run on. Now, Trump is incompetent and possibly traitorous so maybe he can be stopped anyway. But giving your opponent their signature victory (and Trump's two signature positions were Obamacare Repeal and THE WALL) is never an obvious net win. Never.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 PM on January 21, 2018 [30 favorites]


I’m not going to weigh in on the political or practical wisdom of offering up the wall as a bargaining chip in this situation, but it’s much more than just a bad idea or a temporary nuisance. The wall is devastating to border residents who have their property seized or bisected, to the communities that have to live on either side, and to the ecosystems that are destroyed by its construction and disrupted by its presence.
posted by Tuba Toothpaste at 10:06 PM on January 21, 2018 [37 favorites]


After helping Trump build the wall, all Democrats need to do is find 9 votes for Trump's infrastructure plan and his reelection is guaranteed.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:08 PM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Remember: Mexico pays for the wall. Trump shouldn't be requesting wall money; no part of the US government should be requesting wall money; MEXICO pays for the wall.

(Yes yes, that was an obvious lie all along. But.)
posted by inexorably_forward at 10:14 PM on January 21, 2018 [29 favorites]


I feel like Schumer is offering to pass wall money as a gamble that either Trump will never actually get it done because of his own inherent incompetence and corruption, or it'll move so slowly Democrats will be able to take over in a wave and kill the funding before anything gets built.

Neither of these things is totally unfeasible. Construction isn't likely to move fast. Given the way this regime handles money--particularly on a project like this--there's every reason to believe the first few billion will disappear down a hole of corruption with nothing to show for it at all. Schumer might think those billions of dollars disappearing is an acceptable price to save DACA recipients... and I would agree, if it was a sure thing. But it's not a sure thing at all.

I think it's an insane risk. This isn't admirable. Like Tuba Toothpaste says, the wall will have serious long-term harmful effects even if it's never fully finished. And I'm with Justinian on the serious boost it will give to the GOP in mid-terms and Trump in 2020 if he can show he'll actually get his biggest racist bullshit garbage done.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:38 PM on January 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


A mobilized Republican base keeping the House in Republican hands in 2018 would be a disaster of unmitigated proportions.

I don't disagree, but we're already in a disaster of unmitigated proportions, unless we take steps to mitigate it. Opportunities like preserving DACA are mitigation. How much ground are we willing to cede on human rights in the name of winning the House this year?

Wall + tax cuts + booming economy is an ad campaign a competent candidate could easily turn into a second term.

Don't polls generally show most people don't give a shit about the wall? It's only the far-right base that cares, and they'll be motivated regardless of whether the wall materializes. Maybe moreso if it doesn't, since they're mostly motivated by a persecution complex, and no wall is just more evidence that they're a persecuted underdog. Also, polls show most Americans seem pretty lukewarm on the tax cuts issue right now. The Republicans haven't even managed to convince people that tax cuts are actually good for them.

Also, is there even much evidence that voters are mobilized by success? Democrats had a pretty good 2009-2010 legislatively, and Democratic voters stayed home in 2010, letting Republicans redraw congressional districts and giving us the current shitstorm we're weathering.

I’m not going to weigh in on the political or practical wisdom of offering up the wall as a bargaining chip in this situation, but it’s much more than just a bad idea or a temporary nuisance. The wall is devastating to border residents who have their property seized or bisected, to the communities that have to live on either side, and to the ecosystems that are destroyed by its construction and disrupted by its presence.

I do agree completely, and I didn't intend to suggest otherwise. But there are still many steps between allocating funds for the wall and actually building the wall, and we can keep fighting at each of those steps. Conceding on funding the wall is not the same thing as building the wall, not by a long shot. But there are 800,000 Americans who could get deported from the only home they've ever known. This is a human rights crisis, and extreme measures are justified to address it, including the very real, very painful costs you've described, if it comes to it.
posted by biogeo at 10:43 PM on January 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


The WaPo has a somewhat flattering piece on the guy behind the guy, Stephen Miller: Immigration agitator and White House survivor. Besides a bunch of superfluous puffery to make Miller look good, it reads like Miller and other immigration hardliners are talking to reporters to both signal their negotiating position and soften perceptions of their demands:
Much like the Breitbart meeting, Miller found himself urging the group to allow the sorts of concessions for dreamers that they have been fighting against for years in return for systematic changes to the legal immigration system, like stronger enforcement measures and ending family preferences.

“Be a possible ‘yes,’ be open to doing something that makes you very uncomfortable on DACA in exchange for substantive structural reforms that may have been out of reach,” a senior White House official said, summarizing Miller’s pitch on the condition of anonymity to share details of a private moment. “That’s the whole game.”
Also, Trump's allies are really bad at making it sound like he isn't a puppet:
Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, said Trump has hawkish immigration views on a gut level but doesn’t necessarily understand all of the policy details and implications. He said Miller and Chief of Staff John F. Kelly — who also plays a crucial role in immigration policy — are “not so much yanking the president’s leash” as doing “the proper job of staff” by steering the president to his goals.

“There was a story line that people were developing in their own minds that Miller is the source of evil and without him everything would be great,” Krikorian said. “The truth is the president is committed to this general perspective on immigration, and Miller and Kelly are there to help him implement what he always wanted to do.”
posted by peeedro at 11:03 PM on January 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Miller and Chief of Staff John F. Kelly — who also plays a crucial role in immigration policy — are “not so much yanking the president’s leash” as doing “the proper job of staff” by steering the president to his goals.

Looks like the beginning of the end for Miller and maybe even Kelly. (Though who will fire Kelly, when Trump is scared of firing people?) Trump doesn't care much about the shutdown, but he does care about being called a puppet.
posted by mumimor at 11:40 PM on January 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


The naive question we should all be asking: "But I thought Mexico was paying for the wall"
posted by mbo at 11:41 PM on January 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


They don't need buy-in from Trump. Get it through House and Senate with DACA and CHIP, and he'll sign it - because otherwise, all the complaints fall on him; he becomes the failure who couldn't take care of America's children.

(And yes, the wall should be pushed back with, "but you said Mexico was going to pay for it. Let's see their money before we put those plans in our budget.")
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:54 PM on January 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


You guys, I ❤️ Pete Souza.

The White House had themselves a bit of a photo shoot to “prove” that Trump was “working hard” during the “Democrat shutdown.” Today, Pete Souza posted this picture of Obama during the 2013 shutdown.
posted by Weeping_angel at 11:59 PM on January 21, 2018 [31 favorites]


Meanwhile, below the southern border:

"Mexican views of the United States drop to record low, poll finds" WaPo
posted by Omon Ra at 12:08 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


(loony leftist update) aaaa I'm submitting my application to the community board for real tomorrow and I'm trying not to sound QUITE so fire breathing in my answers. It's a volunteer, selected organization about zoning and such in my neighborhood and I really want to be on it cause socialists, socialists in every level of government (and I could vote down really awful planning ideas? IDK) also aaaaaa.
posted by The Whelk at 12:18 AM on January 22, 2018 [79 favorites]


I just want to take a brief moment to point out that The Whelk's comment above is number 1,337 in this thread which makes it k-rad.
posted by loquacious at 2:44 AM on January 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


I think the pro-con debate on the Wall is the same debate we've been having this entire administration as to whether or not this is a normal administration that can be dealt with through normal means. And the answer to that, clearly, is no. As remotely anyone, Republican or Democrat, who has tried to manage, mitigate, or work with Trump knows by now. The temptation is to try to do the least harm by getting something, but in doing so you normalize Trump, and make it easier for him and his to win elections and keep transforming our society and government into their fever dream.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


“There was a story line that people were developing in their own minds that Miller is the source of evil and without him everything would be great,” Krikorian said. “The truth is the president is committed to this general perspective on immigration, and Miller and Kelly are there to help him implement what he always wanted to do.”

So the argument is that instead of Miller being the source of all evil there are multiple sources of evil?
posted by srboisvert at 3:13 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


The leverage, and time, is on the Dems’ side here...as long as they don’t cave.

I fear that if the shutdown goes on and Americans begin to feel a pinch, the DREAM act will become less and less popular. Republican partisans will get in line with their party. People who weren't paying attention will get the vague impression that Democrats are screwing over Americans to help illegal immigrants. And even within the Democratic party, people who prioritize other issues will start saying "why shut down the government over this and not over my issue?" and will complain about the focus on "identity politics."

Meanwhile, diseases will spread without the CDC monitoring them. Pollution will spread without the EPA monitoring it. Parks will be closed. And federal workers will be missing paychecks. Real people are getting hurt.

To me what seems to be happening here is 1) Republicans took CHIP kids and DREAMers hostage (vote for our budget or else) 2) Democrats then took federal government workers and the people who depend on them hostage. 3) Republicans have offered to release one hostage (CHIP kids) if Democrats do what they are told.... Democrats said "release them both or else" and now have a gun to the head of federal workers 4) Republicans don't really care that much if the Democrats shoot. They don't care about federal workers. They don't care if all the hostages die. They will probably shoot the DREAMers no matter what.

But as this stand off goes on, more and more Americans will be hurt by the shut down, and will feel like the Democrats have taken THEM hostage. And they will begin represent the DREAMers, for whose sake they were taken.

I don't think time is on the side of Democrats, here. Schumer needs to make a deal that gets something through the Senate. Then if Trump vetos it or the House refuses to pass it... That's on them.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:56 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


People who weren't paying attention will get the vague impression that Democrats are screwing over Americans to help illegal immigrants.

The rhetoric is important:Dreamers are Americans; Dreamers are Americans; Dreamers are Americans. Republicans want to deport American children.
posted by melissasaurus at 4:24 AM on January 22, 2018 [72 favorites]


Man, I don't see the endgame here, if Ryan refuses to bring DACA up for a vote. And that is kind of freaking scary. Democrats fold when what, some horrible national crisis (other than the existing one in the WH) creates a popular demand for unity at the expense of some demographic, like those covered by DACA?
posted by angrycat at 4:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


At some point the Republicans eould dump the filibuster rule, and pass their legislation with 50 votes. That's probably not a bad outcome for the Democrats.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:41 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Women and independents drive advantage for Democrats ahead of midterm elections, Post-ABC poll finds (WaPo)
The Post-ABC poll finds Democrats holding a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage among female voters, double the size of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin in the 2016 election. Nonwhite women favor Democrats by a 53-point margin, somewhat smaller than Clinton’s 63-point advantage over Trump in 2016. But white women have moved sharply in Democrats’ direction, favoring them over Republicans by 12 points after supporting Trump by nine points in 2016 and Republican candidates by 14 points in the 2014 midterm election, according to network exit polls.

Partisan loyalty is strong, with Republican and Democratic candidates garnering support from at least 9 in 10 of their fellow partisans, but self-identified political independents favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 50 percent to 34 percent. The swing group has been decisive in three consecutive midterm election waves, backing Republicans by 19 points in 2010 and 12 points in 2014, but supporting Democrats by 18 points in 2006 as they retook control of the House.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


To me what seems to be happening here is 1) Republicans took CHIP kids and DREAMers hostage (vote for our budget or else)
. . except they don't have a budget yet, just more postponement of actually writing a budget.
posted by rc3spencer at 5:21 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


$18B isn't what it used to be. That's like 6 weeks of the Iraq war at its height.

Yeah or health insurance for everyone for a decade.

Did anyone call the Pentagon to see if they'd found the missing 6.5 TRILLION yet? Did they look under Rumsfeld's old desk? I bet that's where it is.
posted by petebest at 5:26 AM on January 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


Trump's Mirror in full effect: @realDonaldTrump: Democrats have shut down our government in the interests of their far left base. They don’t want to do it but are powerless!
posted by Roommate at 5:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


Powerless, so they shut down the government, which they didn't want to do. Got it.

I'm sure the corporate news will be asking the hard questions about what the hell he thinks he's on about.
posted by petebest at 5:36 AM on January 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Allow me a few stupid questions.

If they are going to blame the democrats anyway, why don't the democrats just not play the game and not cave? Isn't that what Republicans would do? Yes, I know there are lives at stake. If Dems cave, I think T.D. Strange is right: just sets the table for the next piece of foundation to crumble by forcing more hard choices & bargaining chips.

And all of this is assuming our laws and voting process are going to even be intact for the next 200 odd days.
posted by yoga at 5:48 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


@RepMarkMeadows says @SpeakerRyan has promised him the House won't be involved in "any commitment" on immigration in the Senate to re-open the gov't.

Mark Meadows, for those of you playing the home game, is the head of the House Freedom Caucus who are the Sword of Damocles hanging over Ryan's speakership.
posted by Talez at 6:00 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


ICE detains a Polish doctor and green-card holder who has lived in the U.S. for nearly 40 years
According to his “notice to appear” from the Department of Homeland Security, Niec’s detention stems from two misdemeanor convictions from 26 years ago. In January 1992, Niec was convicted of malicious destruction of property under $100. In April of that year, he was convicted of receiving and concealing stolen property over $100 and a financial transaction device.

Because Niec was convicted of two crimes involving “moral turpitude,” stemming from two separate incidents, he is subject to removal, immigration authorities wrote in the notice to appear, citing the Immigration and Nationality Act.
Your youthful indiscretions are now crimes of moral turpitude equal to a felony like rape or murder or holding more than an ounce of weed.

This should scare the shit out of any PR holder. I know it scares the shit out of me. They're coming for all immigrants not just illegals.
posted by Talez at 6:10 AM on January 22, 2018 [99 favorites]


The Democrats should realize that regardless of what the polls say, they don’t have to face an actual election against Republicans until November, which is over 28 Scaramuccis away.

They do have primaries well before then, so caving will backfire. Most likely, though, everyone will forget about 3 days after the government reopens, when Trump says or does some other dumb thing.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 6:18 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]




Speaking of republicans and dirty tricks, the GOP just filed suit in texas to strip 128 mostly minority and female candidates off the midterm ballots. All democrats, naturally. If this gambit works, it would clear the slate, and republicans would run unopposed for those 128 races.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:04 AM on January 22, 2018 [52 favorites]


How about offering a wall deal that matches funds from Mexico?
Like, for every Peso paid (or budgeted) towards building the wall he can have a dollar? Or ten? or a billion?
Like, whatever, since he promised "Mexico is going to pay for it" it's a deal that says "Hey, we're basically offering you exactly what you asked for" but will cost nothing and will not advance the wall in any way at all.

Obviously, that won't be accepted, but it means that you can say that you offered it.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:15 AM on January 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Pulse of the people anecdote: On the subway this morning, a very ordinary looking middle-aged white man wearing a suit and carrying a briefcase suddenly launched into a rant about how people need to vote. The elderly black man sitting next to me got up and shook his hand. It was kind of great.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:43 AM on January 22, 2018 [91 favorites]


Unfortunately Democrats don't really need any more votes from places with subways. Those places are already represented by Democrats. We need those conversations to be happening in truck stops.
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:47 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


NPR reports undocumented Irish immigrants in Boston are discovering ICE hates them as much as darker-skinned people.
posted by adamg at 7:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


> Unfortunately Democrats don't really need any more votes from places with subways.

False:
The fact is, residents of most major American cities typically vote at rates 5 to 15 percent lower than their suburban neighbors. Because of that lower level of engagement, and because they vote predictably blue, voters in most American cities are taken for granted by Democrats, ignored by Republicans, and unfortunately, rarely courted in national elections.

Yet despite their history of reduced turnout, cities represent an untapped opportunity for whichever party moves first. Urban counties in the Sun Belt will continue to grow, potentially turning some Southern states, such as fast-growing Texas, purple. Meanwhile, some say Democratic dominance in cities may have already reached its high water mark, especially as unions continue to fade and those with less income and education turn to Republicans for change. An increase in Republican voters in Michigan and Ohio’s cities could turn those states solidly red. [...]

If cities matched their suburban peers by raising turnout by 5 to 10 percent, they would effectively end the talk about swing states, turning those states Democratic, and focus the conversation instead on urban issues.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:50 AM on January 22, 2018 [80 favorites]


Hopefully a trend and not a blip: Trump's approval trending down again, disapproval up (FiveThirtyEight). I wouldn't be surprised if the recent rise in approval was a holiday/goodwill boost combined with the passage of the tax bill.

If the approval numbers start going up again, then I'll fret about the blue wave. Until then, I'm optimistic.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:50 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Urban counties in the Sun Belt will continue to grow

Okay but... do any of them have subways?
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:52 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Just got my first 2018 paycheck. Tax cut: fifty cents per week. To quote Trading Places: "I think I'll go to the movies. By myself."
posted by Melismata at 7:52 AM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


Recreation.gov is down. :( I finally decided on RMNP for the end of my vacation and now I can't reserve it.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:53 AM on January 22, 2018


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

5. Wear your Women's March pink hat all day on Tuesday January 30 2018

I coveted an excellent pink fedora at our March.
posted by jointhedance at 7:55 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

There's TWELVE NHL games that night. That's nearly the entire league. Something should be available in everyone's market here. Watch some hockey.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:58 AM on January 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


A couple of thoughts.

The first is that if we're ever permitted to have a Democratic majority and President again (not guaranteed at all given gerrymandering and the Senate) then one of the first things that needs to be done is a law mandating a) that the debt ceiling is abolished and the US will always pay its bills, and b) in the event that Congress can't pass a budget then the budget is automatically last year's plus inflation.

We can't afford to keep having this sort of shit where the Republicans keep shutting down the government and threatening to default on our debt.

I'd also favor (and unfortunately I'm pretty sure it'd take a Constitutional amendment) a law that in the event that Congress can't pass a budget by (whatever date seems appropriate annually, every Jan 1 I suppose) then new elections will be held in 30 days for all Senators, Representatives, and the President and that the current President as well as all current Senators and Representatives are barred from running in the new elections.

If a budget can't be passed then clearly the government is dysfunctional and we need to flush the system and try again with new representatives.
posted by sotonohito at 7:59 AM on January 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


> Okay but... do any of them have subways?

If your argument was literally just about places with and without subways, then I apologize, but it read as an argument about urban voters generally. Anyway, the piece also cites DC as lagging behind suburban areas, and though there are subways in many DC suburbs, the point is obvious -- urban voters should not be written off just because we assume turnout is great in urban areas. It's not. Some of that is voter suppression, but a lot of it could be that Democrats aren't giving them enough love, or nominating candidates that excite them.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Unfortunately Democrats don't really need any more votes from places with subways.

There are 8 "democratic" NY State Senators who caucus with republicans. They are known as the Independent Democratic Conference, and they are the reason* we cant have nice things.

I would venture to guess waaaay too many New Yorkers are totally unaware of this situation, some probably even think they are doing the right thing by checking the box with a D next to it, even if they are represented by one of those clowns.

*ok so there are other reasons, but this is a BIG one.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:03 AM on January 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


I'd also favor (and unfortunately I'm pretty sure it'd take a Constitutional amendment) a law that in the event that Congress can't pass a budget by (whatever date seems appropriate annually, every Jan 1 I suppose) then new elections will be held in 30 days for all Senators, Representatives, and the President and that the current President as well as all current Senators and Representatives are barred from running in the new elections.

Oh great. So we lose all institutional knowledge in two branches of government and start from scratch. Or is this one of those cases where it's a threat that forces people to get along until some assholes decide that they're willing to risk burning it all down and the unthinkable happens?
posted by Talez at 8:04 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


I wouldn't bar the previous officials from running again but yeah, inability to pass a budget should trigger new elections, as is the case in pretty much every other modern reasonably democratic country.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:05 AM on January 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


@RepMarkMeadows says @SpeakerRyan has promised him the House won't be involved in "any commitment" on immigration in the Senate to re-open the gov't.

Mark Meadows, for those of you playing the home game, is the head of the House Freedom Caucus who are the Sword of Damocles hanging over Ryan's speakership.


I can totally picture a scenario where Ryan ends up whipping signatures on the down low for a discharge petition on a bill he himself won't bring to the floor because he has no other outs. You don't need to promise Meadows the House won't consider it if it's likely to fail when brought to the floor, why would Meadows care if it was DOA anyways? It sounds very likely to pass and at some point holding up a shutdown deal to tank a passable and popular bill becomes just as much of a problem for Ryan as the Freedom Caucus.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:06 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


'Dealmaker in chief' largely absent in weekend shutdown negotiations CNN
Earlier in the day, Trump watched intently as two of his top aides blanketed the Sunday morning television programs to blame Democrats for the shutdown. Trump had personally advocated for the television appearances by his budget chief Mick Mulvaney and his legislative affairs director Marc Short, a White House official said.
In the interviews, the two men accused Democrats of stonewalling government funding for political ends. But faced with a political advertisement that accuses Democrats of being complicit in murders committed by immigrants, Short sought to distance the video from the White House.
"Well, you know that ad was produced by an outside group," Short said. The video, produced by Trump's election campaign, ends with Trump's own voice saying he approved the message.
The disconnect underscored the reality that the shutdown has become as much about political posturing as it has about immigration, government funding or the business of running the country. In photos distributed by the White House on Saturday, Trump is shown meeting not with his legislative affairs or policy aides, but with communications staffers.

(My bold)
posted by mumimor at 8:08 AM on January 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


Unfortunately Democrats don't really need any more votes from places with subways.

There are 8 "democratic" NY State Senators who caucus with republicans. They are known as the Independent Democratic Conference, and they are the reason* we cant have nice things.


One of them (Jose Peralta) is my State Senator, and I am so happy to be voting for one of his primary opponents this year. IDC stuff is all over my social media like whoa.
posted by gaspode at 8:16 AM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


I wouldn't bar the previous officials from running again but yeah, inability to pass a budget should trigger new elections, as is the case in pretty much every other modern reasonably democratic country.

I'd prefer to opt for a variant of the Buffett Plan ("any time there's a deficit of more than three percent of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election") that says if they don't pass a budget, they're all ineligible for re-election.

Incumbents have too big an advantage to just say, "let's have new elections." No, let's tell them, if you can't do your job, you can run out the clock on your assigned time, but you don't get invited back. No budget = everybody out.

It'd take about three complete turnovers of Congress, over the course of 10-15 years, for anyone running to realize, a coherent, bipartisan budget MUST be my #1 political career priority.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:16 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


@edatpost: "We’re making progress by inches," @SenatorCollins (R-Maine) said as the meeting in her office ended. Urged Dems to trust McConnell and move forward with reopening the government.

Riiiiight. We don't even know which Sen. Collins is saying it: the one who has repeatedly been lied to by McConnell before, or the one who sold her soul to him in exchange for one of the most evil pieces of legislation in recent history. Either way, this is ridiculous coming from her.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [36 favorites]


My understanding is that term limits in the states, while they seemed to be a good idea, have generally resulted in a destruction of institutional knowledge and long-term relationship building that has led to inexperienced "citizen-legislators" becoming rubber-stamps for well-funded model legislation-writing groups like ALEC.

I'd put that policy idea in the bucket of center-right proposals like "charter schools" which aren't in principle a horrible idea, but which haven't worked out well in practice.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:21 AM on January 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


"Trust McConnell." I hope Schumer responds to that like the insult to his intelligence that it is.
posted by contraption at 8:22 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Senators Worry McConnell Promise On DACA Not Firm Enough To End Shutdown (Alice Ollstein / Tierney Sneed | TPM)
As the scramble to end the government shutdown dragged into the work week Monday morning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged senators in both parties to vote to fund the government until Feb. 8, and accept a loose promise from him to bring a bill to the floor that would address the status of the 700,000 young immigrants whose protections President Trump revoked last year, even if they don’t have an agreement with the White House or the House.

But, citing McConnell’s promises last year for votes on health care and immigration that were never honored, lawmakers in both parties say McConnell needs to offer something more concrete.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:25 AM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


ErisLordFreedom: It'd take about three complete turnovers of Congress, over the course of 10-15 years, for anyone running to realize, a coherent, bipartisan budget MUST be my #1 political career priority.

You're assuming anyone in an elected office considers it paramount to remain. Whereas a lot of people, both good and bad, would be willing to sink the whole ship if they believe it would be for the best. And yes, new people could always crop up to do it again and again.

I'd say a default-carryover budget is enough by itself. Government by light switch (intentionally choosing to turn things off or on), not by kill button (constant pressing needed to keep things active).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


That GOP suit linked by SecretAgentSockpuppet feels exactly like the kind of rules-lawyering we’ve seen from Republicans, and will be a strategy they continue to deploy.

The lawsuit claims that the democratic chair didn’t sign all of the petitions of the candidates before officially filing them. Republicans are claiming some of Donovan’s signatures aren’t hers.

Dallas County Democratic Party Chair Carol Donovan:
“It is clear by this attack that the Dallas County GOP cannot win at the ballot box, so they are trying to litigate their way into victories in Dallas County, with no concern for Dallas County voters,” Donovan said. “Instead of playing Trump-style politics, they'd be better off legitimately recruiting and fielding their own Primary."

From the article:
State Rep. Eric Johnson, D-Dallas, says he was one of the candidates targeted by the Republican party’s lawsuit.

“Texas Republicans are constantly looking for ways to disenfranchise minority voters. They have done it at the state level in Austin and now they are trying to do it at the local level in Dallas County,” he said in a news release. “The vast majority of the Democratic candidates who were targeted by the DCRP’s frivolous lawsuit are minorities. This is just the latest attempt by Texas Republicans to take away the ability of minority voters to elect candidates of their choice.”

What is keeping democrats from doing similar, blocking republican agendas through administrative adherence? Considering republicans have a history of not playing by the rules and not caring to cover it up, it seems Democrats would find a lot of Republican mistakes. Is this one of those IOIYAR?
posted by erisfree at 8:28 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


Term limits for chief executives seem like a fine idea, but not for representatives. They very rarely influence policy direction.

Not being able to pass a budget should be fatal for the body that has to pass the budget i.e. the Senate. Forcing out the President when that's not really their job is a) not an incentive and b) a great way for a hostile Senate to force out a President when they already have impeachment.

I don't think running a deficit is necessarily a failure condition. There are reasons you might want to run a deficit. The problem is more that Americans by and large don't care about the deficit and so representatives don't. In some countries, not being to produce a surplus is seen as an indictment on your ability to deliver prosperity (even though there's a school of monetary theory that says that a budget surplus in a sovereign fiat currency is actually the opposite of prosperity but I'm already pushing the limits in terms of relevance to US politics)
posted by Merus at 8:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Incumbents have too big an advantage to just say, "let's have new elections." No, let's tell them, if you can't do your job, you can run out the clock on your assigned time, but you don't get invited back. No budget = everybody out.

Congratulations - you just empowered lobbyists and other outside organizations that don't have turnover. I get the appeal of the "toss the bums out" idea, but as places like California have shown us, what happens is you trade one problem for a worse one.
posted by NoxAeternum at 8:30 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Unfortunately Democrats don't really need any more votes from places with subways.

Not sure whether their trains are underground or not, but higher turnout in St. Louis would go a long ways towards winning Missouri. And I'm pretty sure it's totally above-ground, but Dallas and Austin at least have commuter rail and maximizing turnout there would likewise go a long way in statewide contests.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:32 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Mike Pence Snubbed by Arab Politicians in Israel Over Trump Jerusalem Decision (Jack Moore for Newsweek, January 22, 2018) -- note: autoplaying somber video about the international response Trump's decision to recognize the contested city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel
Arab lawmakers in Israel will boycott Vice President Mike Pence’s speech to the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem on Monday, citing the U.S. decision to recognize the contested city as the capital of Israel.

Trump’s second-in-command is on the final stop of a four-day Middle East visit. His arrival has aroused protest not only from Arab Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank, but from Arab representatives in Israel.

Ayman Odeh, leader of the Arab Joint List, the third-biggest party in Israel, announced the boycott of Pence’s speech on Saturday.

He called Pence “dangerous,” a politician with a “messianic vision” for Jerusalem, after Trump announced the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to the city on December 6.

“[Pence] is a dangerous man with a messianic vision that includes the destruction of the entire region,” he said.
U.S. Embassy In Jerusalem Will Open By End Of 2019, Pence Says In Israel (Bill Chappell for NPR, January 22, 2018)
Vice President Mike Pence says the U.S. will complete the plan to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by the end of 2019, announcing a faster timeline for opening the embassy than had been previously reported. Pence announced the new deadline during his visit to Israel.

"In the weeks ahead, our administration will advance its plan to open the United States embassy in Jerusalem — and that United States embassy will open before the end of next year," Pence said.
Mike Pence Says U.S. Embassy Will Open in Jerusalem Next Year (Ben Hubbard for New York Times, Jan. 22, 2018)
Mr. Trump has also threatened to shutter an office of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Washington and cut American donations to the United Nations agency that provides services for Palestinian refugees.

That approach has been welcomed by many Israelis, while rankling with Palestinians, whose political and religious leaders have refused to meet Mr. Pence.

In his speech to the Parliament, Mr. Pence spoke in glowing terms of the long alliance between the United States and Israel, framing it as part of an epic battle.

“We stand with Israel because we believe in right over wrong, in good over evil, and in liberty over tyranny,” Mr. Pence said.

Mr. Pence, an evangelical Christian, dotted his address with biblical references and spoke of the Jewish connection to Jerusalem in historical and religious terms.

“The United States has chosen fact over fiction, and fact is the only true foundation for a just and lasting peace,” he said.

He scarcely mentioned the Palestinians and did not refer to their history in the Holy Land, nor to their territorial claims. He said the United States would support a two-state solution “if both sides agree.”
Emphasis mine, to highlight the moment that I shouted at the radio this morning ("FUCK YOU AND YOUR FACT OVER FICTION!"), as NPR also played a snippet of that.

And at that moment I realized that the Great Negotiators were using the challenging tactic of "Give The Whole Cake To Party A, Ask Them To Share With Share With Party B" tactic, with the additional challenge of getting cake-making supplies from both parties first.

And now I realize it's just a modification to the standard GOP tactic of "Take The Whole Cake, Offer Crumbs to Dems If They Give Us More Cake."
posted by filthy light thief at 8:35 AM on January 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


I wouldn't bar the previous officials from running again but yeah, inability to pass a budget should trigger new elections

Mostly serious question: if the inability to pass a budget triggers new elections, what's the budget for running those elections and who decides it?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:40 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


My understanding is that term limits in the states, while they seemed to be a good idea, have generally resulted in a destruction of institutional knowledge and long-term relationship building that has led to inexperienced "citizen-legislators" becoming rubber-stamps for well-funded model legislation-writing groups like ALEC.

Pretty much. The most relevant pieces are the articles with Carey, Niemi, and Powell (and Moncrief on one). Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson has a book that's more or less to that effect but looking at Michigan (I haven't read this but have seen Marjorie present different pieces of research from the book at conferences).
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:40 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged senators in both parties to vote to fund the government until Feb. 8, and accept a loose promise from him to bring a bill to the floor that would address the status of the 700,000 young immigrants whose protections President Trump revoked last year, even if they don’t have an agreement with the White House or the House.

But, citing McConnell’s promises last year for votes on health care and immigration that were never honored, lawmakers in both parties say McConnell needs to offer something more concrete.
Um, but even if permanent legislation to fix DACA passes the Senate (and note that the promise is for the bill to come to the floor, not for Republican guarantees of passage), how is it going to make it anywhere past the House?
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:42 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I'd prefer to opt for a variant of the Buffett Plan ("any time there's a deficit of more than three percent of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election") that says if they don't pass a budget, they're all ineligible for re-election.

That's kind of ridiculous because the second you engage in counter-cyclical spending you're going to get thrown out of office. Who's going to jump on that grenade exactly? Any future economic crisis would turn into a self-inflicted Japanese style deflationary spiral as nobody spends anything and any currency gets hoarded.
posted by Talez at 8:43 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


If McConnell's so willing to play ball on DACA, why not put it in the CR like we've been asking for? Why would anyone play along with an indefinite-future promise of support that he's already broken once?
posted by jackbishop at 8:44 AM on January 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Mostly serious question: if the inability to pass a budget triggers new elections, what's the budget for running those elections and who decides it?

Elections for federal offices are run by a federal agency with a permanent appropriation, states can piggyback on the infrastructure for local elections if they want. (We're definitely into gay space communism territory here but whatever.)
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:44 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Democrats poised to accept deal to end shutdown (TPM)
Senate Democrats are on the brink of accepting a deal to end the government shutdown in exchange for the promise of a vote on the DREAM Act in the coming weeks, three sources tell TPM.

The details of the deal aren’t yet clear. But multiple Democratic sources familiar with an ongoing meeting of Senate Democrats on the Hill made it clear that an agreement to reopen the government for a few weeks was all but certain late Monday morning.

“There’s a deal and the vote will likely have room to spare above 60,” one source familiar with the Senate Democrats’ meeting told TPM. Another Democrat familiar with the meeting confirmed the deal, while a third said that while there wasn’t a “done deal yet” there was an “outline” of a deal that would likely pass when the Senate takes it up on Monday.

That deal is expected to get strong support from Democrats — including fierce immigration advocates like Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), the leading Senate advocate for so-called “DREAMers” whose vote would provide cover for other Democrats to support an agreement.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


N.B. 2009's budget deficit was 10% of GDP. Are you seriously telling me in the middle of a crisis we're just going to upend the entire table? Is government to increase taxes in a recession? Are they to throw the population to the wolves in a recession by dramatically slashing domestic spending?

This is why the Buffett Plan is dangerously ridiculous.
posted by Talez at 8:47 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Talez Oh great. So we lose all institutional knowledge in two branches of government and start from scratch.

There's certainly value in institutional knowledge and experience. I don't deny that at all.

But I do deny that the value is as high as you seem to believe or that the value exceeds the value of purging the government of the long time evils like Hatch and so on.

If the government can't fulfill its basic function then clearly something has failed on such a deep level that starting over seems reasonable. Yes, it'd cost us some valuable experience on our side, but is that cost really higher than the cost of keeping this sort of shit happening over and over?

I'd also note that the US government hasn't passed a budget in a very, very, long time. Mostly we've gotten along on a series of managed crises like this one with a bunch of "continuing resolutions" rather than an actual budget. That permits far too much abuse from bad actors (like the Republicans) and it seems that we need some draconian solution in order to keep it from continuing.
posted by sotonohito at 8:47 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I'd prefer to opt for a variant of the Buffett Plan ("any time there's a deficit of more than three percent of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election") that says if they don't pass a budget, they're all ineligible for re-election.

3%?
You do know what that would mean in this nation, right? Almost every penny would go to the military, and most, if not all, of the already tattered social safety net slashed to the bone, privatized, or killed altogether, along with school funding, the arts, EPA, Interior Dept., OSHA, etc. etc.

Buffett can easily survive such an environment. Most of the non-wealthy really can't, even if they don't know it.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:47 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Senate Democrats are on the brink of accepting a deal to end the government shutdown in exchange for the promise of a vote on the DREAM Act in the coming weeks, three sources tell TPM.

Anybody who throws down their cards in exchange for Mitch McConnell's promises is worse than useless.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:48 AM on January 22, 2018 [38 favorites]


I reiterate: RYAN 👏 WILL 👏 NEVER 👏 BRING 👏 DACA 👏 TO 👏 THE 👏 FLOOR

Any DACA vote in the Senate is worthless without a discharge petition in the House.
posted by Talez at 8:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


Democrats poised to accept deal to end shutdown

Democrats poised to cave with nothing, as expected. Sorry, everyone who protested since last year, they've still learned nothing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


Pence is of course the potential tie-breaker for a CR vote

By the time it comes to final passage, any CR will already have won 60+ votes to get cloture.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:51 AM on January 22, 2018


It really depends on what Senate Democrats are trying to achieve. I mean, I guess if you have a vote on the Dream Act in the Senate it's a CYA move for midterms. You pass it and then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ it's the House's problem now. They did their part.
posted by Talez at 8:51 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Tom Cotton is telling the Democrats they're getting nothing, they should listen: Sen. Tom Cotton says he doesn't hear anything new in what McConnell is assuring on immigration, beyond what he's been saying for weeks.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:53 AM on January 22, 2018 [26 favorites]


Mostly serious question: if the inability to pass a budget triggers new elections, what's the budget for running those elections and who decides it?

Since elections happen at the State level, I'd be more than happy if my NEW YORK TAX DOLLARS are used for this.
posted by mikelieman at 8:54 AM on January 22, 2018


Ugh, you can almost physically see Lucy's hands twitching as she holds the football
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:54 AM on January 22, 2018 [42 favorites]


Since elections happen at the State level, I'd be more than happy if my NEW YORK TAX DOLLARS are used for this.

New York, maybe. I'd rather federal elections be run by the federal government, though. The states... do not have a great record with free, fair and transparent election processes.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:55 AM on January 22, 2018


Senator Collins urges Democrats to trust McConnell.

I thought the phrase was misery loves company not fucking idiocy loves company.
posted by Talez at 8:56 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


The Democrats cannot possibly be stupid enough to believe that McConnell will follow through on any promise he makes to them. Let's take that as axiomatic. They're capable of knowing where their offices are and how to get to the Senate floor, therefore they are not dumb enough to trust Mitch McConnell on anything.

Therefore they're caving for some other reason.

Which means the real question is: why are they caving?

What's in the current package that makes them think it is worth passing? Did they get access to polls showing that the shutdown is going to reverse the expected blue wave? Do they know something we don't, or are they just craven and pathetic cowards with no stomach for a real fight?

If this is the product of Democratic institutional knowledge, well with all respect I think maybe we'd be better off without it.
posted by sotonohito at 8:57 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Manchin: “very positive. I think it will be open by 12:15”

GOP AZ Sen Flake on if they have the votes: “We think there are”

The Democrats cannot possibly be stupid enough to believe that McConnell will follow through on any promise he makes to them. Let's take that as axiomatic. They're capable of knowing where their offices are and how to get to the Senate floor, therefore they are not dumb enough to trust Mitch McConnell on anything.

McConnell will keep his word and give them a vote. It just won't do anything and he knows it.
posted by Talez at 8:59 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


New York, maybe. I'd rather federal elections be run by the federal government, though. The states... do not have a great record with free, fair and transparent election processes.

I don't want to get into a derail here, so if you have follow-up please me-mail me unless you think it really moves the discussion along. But I'm an Albany County NY Elections Inspector, and I'll put OUR system ( Scantron w/ retained original ballots ) up against anyone's in terms of auditability and accuracy.

Sure, I'd like it if everydistrict/ward had a manual cross check against the totals built-in, but it's an expense I haven't seen evidence of needing yet.
posted by mikelieman at 8:59 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


“The United States has chosen fact over fiction, and fact is the only true foundation for a just and lasting peace,” he said.

Fact, like the land being given by God to one people, not Fiction, like politics or diplomacy
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:00 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

There's TWELVE NHL games that night. That's nearly the entire league. Something should be available in everyone's market here. Watch some hockey.

Only if there's a guarantee of no cutting away to talking head SOTU previews, no SOTU bits snuck in game breaks. . . I am boycotting TV because they're going to throw in SOTU puffery and my head will explode.
posted by jointhedance at 9:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


It sounds like Schumer is losing his caucus vote by vote. Not surprising since he went into this cockamamie Republican emulation without a fucking clue on how to extricate himself.
posted by Talez at 9:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


It doesn't matter what McConnell promises without the House. His promise is literally worthless, whether he keeps it or not.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


The Women’s Marches Could Have More Lasting Consequences Than the Government Shutdown (John Cassidy | The New Yorker)
The machinations on Capitol Hill are obviously newsworthy. But, in historical terms, the hundreds of women’s marches that took place across the country on Saturday and Sunday were arguably of greater importance—and they deserved much more coverage than they received. Since neither party stands to gain much from an extended government shutdown, the impasse will probably be resolved within a short time frame. The marches represented the latest manifestation of a phenomenon that is more lasting, and, ultimately, more consequential: a rare popular mobilization against a sitting President. ...

To be sure, this year’s marches weren’t all about the President. The #MeToo moment has galvanized many women (and some men, too). Among the marchers, there were also plenty of people protesting about other issues, such as immigration and tax reform. But as the marchers’ signs and chants demonstrated, Trump was still the primary motivating factor. With his incendiary behavior in the White House, he isn’t just a lightning rod. He’s a highly effective recruiting sergeant for the self-styled anti-Trump resistance. If some of the marchers were largely apolitical before Trump became President, they aren’t apolitical any more. To most of them, I’d guess, getting out and joining the protests felt less like a choice than an imperative.

For two years in a row, the women’s marches have turned out far more people than the Tea Party protests held between 2007 to 2010 did. In terms of numbers, the only recent events of comparable scope were the antiwar protests of February, 2003. (There were huge protest movements in the nineteen-thirties and sixties.) But those were motivated by animus toward a specific policy—invading Iraq—rather than an individual and what he represents. Not that the Tea Party protests weren’t important. They helped create the conditions for a further lurch to the right within the G.O.P.—and for the Party’s big victory in the 2010 midterm elections, which, in turn, greatly limited the power of the Obama Administration. For the Democratic Party, the rise of a popular, energized resistance to Trump could have similarly important consequences, not just for the immediate future but for the November midterms and the 2020 Presidential election, as well. A new ABC News/Washington Post survey shows the Democratic Party running ahead of the Republicans by twenty-six points, which is twice the margin that Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the lead-up to the 2016 Presidential election. Among self-identified independents, the Democrats hold a sixteen-point lead. These are ominous figures for Trump and the G.O.P.

The development of such a large and active anti-Trump movement is already altering the behavior of potential Democratic candidates for 2020—a number of whom were at the forefront of the calls to stand firm on protecting the Dreamers—and also the behavior of the Democratic Party leadership. In 2013, Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, the House Minority Leader, lambasted Senate Republicans as irresponsible hostage-takers for voting against a funding bill and shutting down the government in an effort to delay and defund parts of the Affordable Care Act. Now the Republican leadership is accusing the Senate Democrats of doing precisely the same thing to get their way on immigration. With the midterms on the horizon, it is hard to believe that Democratic leaders would have taken such a bold step without feeling the pressure from a broad constituency demanding that they resist Trump in any way possible, including some that might previously have been unthinkable. ...

However the shutdown gets resolved, this emerging constituency, which believes the Trump Presidency represents a national emergency, isn’t going anywhere, except to the next protest or political meeting. Just as the Tea Party provided the Republican Party of 2010 with the organizers and doorbell-ringers that are so important in off-year elections, many of the attendees at this weekend’s women’s marches will be working from now until November to turn Trump into a lame duck. Their attitude, defiant and determined, was summed up by a pair of signs held by two marchers in Washington, D.C., The signs said: “GRAB ’EM BY THE MIDTERMS.”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:02 AM on January 22, 2018 [49 favorites]


Is Ryan against DACA because it's pro-immigrant, or because it's another layer of unwanted/unneeded government regulation?
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:04 AM on January 22, 2018


Ugh, you can almost physically see Lucy's hands twitching as she holds the football.

This cartoon metaphor also works really well right now:

Oh please, oh please...
posted by diogenes at 9:05 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Senate Democrats may be deciding that making a show of this to pin it on McConnell and/or Ryan is good enough. If McConnell reneges on a promise, it's his fault. If Ryan won't bring it to the floor, it's his fault. But Senate Dems get to say "At least we tried," which doesn't actually fix anything.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:05 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I've got CSPAN on but I don't know for how long. I don't think I can stand to watch Democrats once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
posted by Talez at 9:05 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Is Ryan against DACA because it's pro-immigrant, or because it's another layer of unwanted/unneeded government regulation?

His feelings are irrelevant. The second DACA hits the floor Mark Meadows files a motion to vacate the speakership with 31 yes votes on the board and 193 Democrats to vote.
posted by Talez at 9:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


I’ve got CSPAN on but I don't know for how long. I don't think I can stand to watch Democrats once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

What are your conditions for victory, here and now, given the makeup of this Congress?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Paul Ryan is against DACA because if he allows a vote on it Louie Gohmert will suck the marrow from his bones
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


I see. So Paul Ryan is a puppet of the Republican Freedom Caucus?
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:09 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Talez, what are your conditions for victory, here and now, given the makeup of this Congress?

Discharge petition on the Dream Act in the House and an up/down vote on it in the Senate. Anything less and Schumer is an abject failure.
posted by Talez at 9:09 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Senator Schumer is an “abject failure” for not being Republican Speaker of the House?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:11 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


This is just another CR, yes? So if/when DACA doesn't happen we get another shot at it in a couple weeks?
posted by scalefree at 9:12 AM on January 22, 2018


I see. So Paul Ryan is a puppet of the Republican Freedom Caucus?

More like a ventriloquist's dummy but with an added tight grap on the nuts along with the hand up the ass.
posted by Talez at 9:13 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


What is stopping Pelosi from promising Ryan that if he brings DACA to the floor, the Dems won't vote with the Freedom Caucus to vacate Ryan? (I'm sure there's a reason, I just don't know it.)
posted by Ragini at 9:13 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I see. So Paul Ryan is a puppet of the Republican Freedom Caucus?

Yupper-doo-doo. As was Boehner; when he got pushed out, he said to Ryan good fucking luck with that.
posted by Melismata at 9:13 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Bob Casey's staffer says that his position "depends on what's in the deal." I reminded her that no deal in the Senate can change what happens in the house, and that he shouldn't accept anything without knowing what's going to happen in the House. It sounds like he might be wavering.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:14 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Senator Schumer is an “abject failure” for not being Speaker of the House?

A discharge petition would bypass Ryan and get a floor vote. It's currently 20 signatures short. You can't tell me they can't find 20 Tuesday Group members to push it through?
posted by Talez at 9:14 AM on January 22, 2018


It’s 3 weeks. If the Senate has passed the Dream Act by then, you add it to the next CR you send to the House, because clearly a majority of the Senate is in favor of this legislation. If not, you shut down again because McConnell didn’t come through on his promise and can’t be trusted.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:15 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


What is stopping Pelosi from promising Ryan that if he brings DACA to the floor, the Dems won't vote with the Freedom Caucus to vacate Ryan? (I'm sure there's a reason, I just don't know it.)

If they get a discharge petition through they can have their cake and eat it too.
posted by Talez at 9:16 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I don't think I can stand to watch Democrats once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Yeah, I'd really like to know what jaws of victory you see here. I see no victory possible here, only options of where to take our bruises.
posted by biogeo at 9:17 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


If they get a discharge petition through they can have their cake and eat it too.

But how likely is that to happen?
posted by Ragini at 9:18 AM on January 22, 2018


> If not, you shut down again because McConnell didn’t come through on his promise and can’t be trusted.

Meanwhile, you've surrendered much of your leverage. The second time you ring the shutdown bell isn't going to ring as loud as the first. People will just figure it's part of the routine negotiation process instead of a statement of principle that can only be ended by a firm, binding commitment to protect Dreamers.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:18 AM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Jeremy Pressman (UConn prof) and Erica Chenoweth (U Denver prof) of CrowdCounting have a much more detailed analysis of the Women's March turnouts yesterday.

344 events with a low estimate of 1.5 million and high estimate of 2.4 million.


Still catching up from the weekend, but I wanted to note that my wife and I were among those who marched here in Indianapolis.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


Senator Schumer is an “abject failure” for not being Speaker of the House?

No, for failing to control his caucus from falling for an obviously worthless promise.

If not, you shut down again because McConnell didn’t come through on his promise and can’t be trusted.'

McConnell has already out-thought Dems on this (not difficult, clearly). He won't commit to a DACA vote until after Feb. 8th. Meaning there will have to be another vote exactly like this one before any DACA vote. They're going to try and jam Democrats with the full year omnibus on Feb 8th, without a DACA vote. AND McConnell's promise is conditional on the government not being shutdown after February 8th. Or again, no DACA. And then, even if McConnell does give a DACA vote after all of that...there's no path to any vote on that bill in the House. Democrats are caving with nothing, at all. They're just smiling really hard while telling you that's not what they're doing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:20 AM on January 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


They get nothing but a promise from a serial liar and one of the most evil men to hold the Majority Leader's position, give Trump and the GOP a victory lap, and let the media get played by the right for several weeks so that everything they want will be DOA in Senate committees, let alone the House. And they did it because a bunch of people who will likely lose re-election (or maybe even switch parties) made Chuck Schumer feel sad.

But hey, Schumer gets to go on the electric teevee box and make serious noises, which is 99% of what he cares about anyway.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:22 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Sent emails to my senators in California:
Please continue to reject any Republican attempts to fund the government without consideration for DREAMers. DACA and CHIP both need funding; don't accept promises of future consideration - they've played that game before and lied about it. Insist on something real for children who've only know the US as their home.
If I thought I had to persuade them, I'd've phrased it differently; this is just another note in the stack that says "I will tolerate the shutdown to get support for the people who most need it."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:24 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Mod note: Y'all, not so much with the contextless liveblogging one-liners.
posted by cortex (staff) at 9:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Oh please, oh please...

it works on so many levels
posted by entropicamericana at 9:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Kyle Pope, CJR: It’s time to rethink how we cover Trump
PLEASE PICK US, please pick us, please pick us.

It says so much about our current media moment that the president would announce plans to shame news organizations with his first-annual “Fake News Awards” and every reporter would be praying to God they made the list.

It’s been just over a year since Donald Trump’s inauguration, almost certainly one of the most momentous chapters in the history of the American presidency and the press. For all the reasons all of us know, the past year has been thrilling and exhausting and demoralizing, sometimes in a single day. But these bogus awards, and the willingness of news organizations to give Trump oxygen for them, have also clarified why the past year has also been a disappointment, for those of us who expected a new attitude, a new approach, by the US press.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:28 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


And his "colleagues" in the GOP aren't even waiting for Schumer to finish speaking before dunking on him:
.@JohnCornyn says Democrats overplayed their hand with the shutdown.

“They had no exit strategy. They had no plan.”
posted by zombieflanders at 9:28 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Man, and then McConnell gets right up and says the moral of the story is that you can't shut down the government in service of "illegal immigrants."

The fact that the Democrats have been letting that shit go unchallenged all weekend long and have not responded that DACA recipients are Americans and lawful immigrants really grinds my gears. With exceptions here and there, they don't give a shit about those kids.
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [31 favorites]


Buzzfeed: Another Right-Wing Insurgency Is Gathering Force In The West

In the tiny town of Paradise, Montana, rancher Cliven Bundy offered few specifics as to the future of his movement. Instead, he preached his particular form of anti–federal government gospel — and readied his followers for whatever comes next.

This event was in my neighborhood. Close enough to count as my neighborhood by Montana standards, at least. I used to work in Paradise: it's a beautiful little teensy-tiny town, I know more good and progressive people there than fascists and it angers and saddens me so much that the 100-200 people living there are smeared by this shit. The organizers of this event and most of the attendees weren't from Paradise but from out of state or places like Thompson Falls, home to people (using the term loosely) like Jennifer Fielder, the militia-affiliated state senator whose life mission is to funnel money and influence from the timber and mining lobbies into white separatist movements.

The worst possible lessons have been learned from the Bundy and Malheur standoffs. Capture, hold hostage and mistreat federal property and tribal lands, threaten federal officers with a massacre unless your demands for free grazing and the privilege to abuse the commons are met, and you get a slap on the wrist at most, plus lots of great publicity, the support of the ruling regime and its base, and conferences held in your honor a thousand miles away.

There's going to be some kind of Bundyite standoff in this corner of Montana very soon. There has to be. The Forest Service is particularly hated by these types (puppets for the logging industry that they are, as well as generally hateful of the environment), and there are abundant USFS facilities nearby that are ripe for the seizing and not many humans to get in the way. I'd like to say thank God that everybody in that Paradise schoolhouse crowd is too old and drunk and unmotivated to do anything here, but there's a small but real number of eager young Montanans and, like Malheur and Bunkerville before it, the smell of potential carnage will draw armed madmen from across the country.

Goddamn is it heartbreaking to watch these assholes sully even the names of the small and obscure places of the land I love and to live under the inevitability of the Third Bundying.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [47 favorites]


The second DACA hits the floor Mark Meadows files a motion to vacate the speakership with 31 yes votes on the board and 193 Democrats to vote.

Crazy idea: if all 193 Democrats vote against that motion, Ryan keeps the speakership. But now he knows that he's beholden to the Democrats for that role, and not the Freedom Caucus.

Ryan is trash, but if we're stuck with a Republican speaker until after the midterms, we may as well use Ryan's craven spinelessness against him.
posted by Uncle Ira at 9:31 AM on January 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


Man, and then McConnell gets right up and says the moral of the story is that you can't shut down the government in service of "illegal immigrants."

Angus King earlier said the reason he was encouraged was McConnell called it "DACA" and not "illegal immigration".
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:32 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Crazy idea: if all 193 Democrats vote against that motion, Ryan keeps the speakership. But now he knows that he's beholden to the Democrats for that role, and not the Freedom Caucus.

There would be no end to the chaos that would happen if the Republicans had to choose a new speaker at this juncture. We could be looking at Banks levels of ballots.
posted by Talez at 9:33 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]




The Democrats remain very much a party that lost an election to Trump.
posted by Artw at 9:37 AM on January 22, 2018 [38 favorites]


You know, I've voted for Democrats, pretty much exclusively, ever since 2000. And I donate to their campaigns regularly. But I have not been able to swallow my bile enough to actually register as one, because of just this sort of thing, that pops up on a regular basis and engenders a general disgust for the party (as much as I like many individuals in it).

You've got moral authority on your side. You have history on your side. And you have public opinion on your side. But you can't hang tough as a party for a single week, to use what little power you have, to influence what needs to be done for the millions that are counting on you.

It's very frustrating.
posted by darkstar at 9:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


The second DACA hits the floor Mark Meadows files a motion to vacate the speakership with 31 yes votes on the board and 193 Democrats to vote.

Now, if Pelosi was crafty, she could tell Ryan "I will direct 31 Democrats to vote for you as Speaker IF you work with us on putting DACA and/or other issues on the floor. Or whatever number ends up being required. But the important thing is that we control a vote bloc on the floor that is FAR larger than the Freedom Kook-us. Would you rather marginalize Meadows and his dingbats or embrace them?"

And she is crafty. And she has said that. What goes unspoken, of course, is that the result would be complete chaos and both sides know that. Every single House Republican who voted for Ryan as a "compromise with Democrats" candidate would be primaried with extreme prejudice, because there is no greater sin in conservative eyes than to grant a Democrat legitimacy for any reason. The Republican side of the House would look like Philadelphia after last night's game, complete with Louie Gohmert trying to climb greased utility poles while screaming about communist ISIS members.
posted by delfin at 9:48 AM on January 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


I just don't see a way out of this, honestly. As much as I desperately want them to stick to their guns on this, I think that both McConnell and the Trump wing are so poisonous (for different and complementary reasons) that they'd truly rather burn everything to the ground even if hundreds of thousands of people are hurt.

The problem with the hostage-taking is that it only works when both parties have something to lose. The current Republican party has absolutely no problem with shooting any and all hostages, so they don't care.

Please, help me understand how the Democrats can come out of this winners without the Republican leadership growing a conscience. I want there to be a way desperately, and I'm not seeing it.
posted by Salieri at 9:48 AM on January 22, 2018 [37 favorites]


I’m a leftist who votes for Democrats, and I’m a federal employee. Sure, I want to go back to work, but not at the expense of 800,000 other Americans. This is morally wrong and politically foolish.
posted by wintermind at 9:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) says she’s “very disappointed” in deal because there’s no guarantee House will pass fix to help Dreamers.
Could someone in the Democratic Senate Caucus please grab a clue-by-four and beat this into Schumer already?
posted by Talez at 9:52 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Please, help me understand how the Democrats can come out of this winners without the Republican leadership growing a conscience. I want there to be a way desperately, and I'm not seeing it.

I'd like to second that request. What series of events leads to anything DACA-like being passed? I'm not asking about what Democrats should do; I'm asking about what Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell is going to do to let something pass, and what's going to change their mind.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:54 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Barack Spinoza: That deal is expected to get strong support from Democrats — including fierce immigration advocates like Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), the leading Senate advocate for so-called “DREAMers” whose vote would provide cover for other Democrats to support an agreement.

T.D. Strange: Tom Cotton is telling the Democrats they're getting nothing, they should listen: Sen. Tom Cotton says he doesn't hear anything new in what McConnell is assuring on immigration, beyond what he's been saying for weeks.

sotonohito: Which means the real question is: why are they caving?

NPR posits that "the Dems blinked" ("because aren't the Republicans giving them the same thing as before, saying 'trust us, we'll fix immigration' " -- "this is really more of the same"), possibly because the GOP is sticking to the message that the Dems are siding with illegal immigrants over the military, and the Dems are afraid that message may stick. NPR also noted that every day a DACA deal is delayed means anoter 122 DACA recipients lose their status (linking back up in this thread).


The Women’s Marches Could Have More Lasting Consequences Than the Government Shutdown (John Cassidy | The New Yorker)

I hope so, because In Trump's First Year, Anti-Abortion Forces Make Strides (Julie Rovner for NPR, January 22, 2018).
As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump promised abortion opponents four specific actions to "advance the rights of unborn children and their mothers."

One year into his presidency, three of those items remain undone. Nevertheless, opponents of abortion have made significant progress in changing the direction of federal and state policies.
I know the Women's Marches represent more than reproductive rights, but that article reminded me that despite SNL's joke that the two things Trump's GOP has accomplished with a year in power are the tax bill and the shutdown (SNL clip embedded in TMZ's summary of the clip).
posted by filthy light thief at 9:55 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


@igorbobic: Harris says she doesn’t believe McConnell made any commitment on DACA and that it would be “foolhardy” to believe him

Seriously. Is anyone even going to bother to act surprised when the betrayal comes? It's not even a betrayal at this point, at leats not from McConnell.
posted by Artw at 9:56 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


I emailed Harris and Feinstein and managed to get a staffer for Feinstein on the phone, who assured me that she is a hard "no" on any continuing resolution that doesn't address the Dreamers.

Keep lighting up those phones, folks.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:57 AM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal
posted by entropicamericana at 9:58 AM on January 22, 2018 [30 favorites]




Crazy idea: if all 193 Democrats vote against that motion, Ryan keeps the speakership. But now he knows that he's beholden to the Democrats for that role, and not the Freedom Caucus.

Any Democrat who gives a goddamn inch to a Republican for unspecified future consideration rather than a bill with tallied votes should contact me immediately for a chance to get in on the ground floor for shares of the Brooklyn Bridge.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:03 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


But I have not been able to swallow my bile enough to actually register as one.

This is just like people who don't vote "because politician's don't listen to me". They don't listen because you don't vote. You don't influence the party because you're not a member.

Register as a damn democrat and then get to work changing the party into the party you WANT it to be.

Even if you hate that there are only two viable parties, the fact remains that there are only two viable parties. If you want to change that, you'll need to be a member of one of those two because those are the only two that will have any power at all to change anything for the foreseeable future so even if you want things to change so that a third party can be viable, that means supporting one of the two current ones. Until enough members of the current parties are willing to make changes that would allow for other viable, these two are going to be the only options.

By not registering as a Democrat, you're telling Democrats that apart from your vote, you have no interest in what the party does.
posted by VTX at 10:03 AM on January 22, 2018 [56 favorites]


I’m a leftist who votes for Democrats, and I’m a federal employee. Sure, I want to go back to work, but not at the expense of 800,000 other Americans. This is morally wrong and politically foolish.

But there are also millions of people who do actually need their government (or contractor) salary, or who rely on government services which would not be available during a long term government shutdown. This is not a minor cost to pay, and in general shutting down the government is not a healthy negotiation strategy.
posted by parallellines at 10:04 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I'd rather federal elections be run by the federal government, though.

Even considering who's currently runningdemolishing the federal government right now?
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Schumer’s NY office goes straight to “the government is shut down” voicemail.

So...I am sure other people have a more nuanced understanding of this. But my overall impression is that the Democrats are trying to negotiate with batshit insane, murderous nihilists — so like Heath Ledger’s Joker (the Freedom assholes) and his malevolently amoral cartoon turtle accountant (guess) — and now, in addition to the 800,000 Dreamers and millions of children they initially held as hostages, the batshit insane nihilists now also have the rest of the federal government hostage?

And they WANT to set it all on fire, because their base is all huffed up on paint, shiny and chrome, and itching for an explosion?

So...if that’s accurate (broad strokes), I’m not sure why people are treating a continued government shut down as though it’s costless. That is not to say that whatever this deal is is a good idea, but keeping the Federal government shut down indefinitely is itself hugely damaging.

It’s just only one side doesn’t care about people getting hurt. You can’t negotiate with people like that. You can only mitigate the damage until you can vote them out. Under the circumstances it doesn’t seem insane to me that mitigating the damage would include keeping the Federal government operational. I mean, shit, it’s flu season. We need the CDC (for example).
posted by schadenfrau at 10:08 AM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


It’s just only one side doesn’t care about people getting hurt. You can’t negotiate with people like that. You can only mitigate the damage until you can vote them out.

How do you mitigate the damage after you've shown them that all they have to do is set the country on fire to get you to fold instantly? (I don't know, I'm asking!)
posted by murphy slaw at 10:10 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


So...if that’s accurate (broad strokes), I’m not sure why people are treating a continued government shut down as though it’s costless. That is not to say that whatever this deal is is a good idea, but keeping the Federal government shut down indefinitely is itself hugely damaging.

It's not that the shutdown is costless, it's that Schumer got into this facacta situation by witholding cloture in the first place because he wanted to be a big man drawing a line that they wouldn't cross. He then proceeded to erase the line, pretend the line wasn't really that solid and he didn't get a damn thing for it in the end.
posted by Talez at 10:11 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Look on the bright side, everybody: with voters on the left disgusted and/or demoralized in the midterms, we won't even be able to gain the Senate back just in time for Manchin (or whoever) to switch parties or declare they're an independent!

🍔
posted by zombieflanders at 10:11 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Am seeing some discussion (e.g., on the politics subreddit) on arguable positives:

-CHIP funding included
-no wall funding
-this is a CR to provide funds until February 8th, so chance to redo dealing at that point given [lack of] progress on DACA...?
-as a minority party and with risk of backlash, Dems couldn't have done much better

(Just to be clear, I'm not saying I necessarily find these points persuasive. Other commenters have already covered the sense of disappointment at the "cave-in.")
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 10:11 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Guardian is saying 16 Senate Dems and 2 Republicans voted against advancing the bill to end the shutdown. Does anyone have a list of the vote roll call?
posted by mostly vowels at 10:14 AM on January 22, 2018


How do you mitigate the damage after you've shown them that all they have to do is set the country on fire to get you to fold instantly? (I don't know, I'm asking!)

I mean...Democrats don’t control a single branch of government. It’s not clear to me why people are assigning responsibility to them. “Folding” is kind of meaningless when you have garbage cards. I mean, bluffing is a thing, but if you’ve ever actually played poker, you know there’s only so much you can do against a total crazy person, particularly one who is all hopped up on pride and thinks they have everything to lose by appearing weak. They will burn down the world before they give you a goddamn thing. So...you let them have that hand until you get cards that aren’t garbage. You don’t try to outcrazy crazy, especially not when the stakes are so high.

I mean, I get this is shitty for morale, but what would you have them do? Serious question. You want the Democrats to fight this in the press and just wait for the Republicans to fold?

Ok — what does that cost? Serious question. What does that cost the country, to have the Federal fucking Governemnt shut down, indefinitely? How many services are cut off? How many people go broke? How many people die?

What’s an acceptable human cost for trying to outcrazy crazy?
posted by schadenfrau at 10:16 AM on January 22, 2018 [50 favorites]


(I mean I’m a ...socialist who is registered Democrat so I can exert pressure on the party to move further left even if I know it probibky won’t work until everyone in charge at the national level gets fired)
posted by The Whelk at 10:17 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


I am sort of curious to know what the ideal endgame would have been for the Democrats here, given that in any game of chicken with today's GOP, you can fully expect them to just huff the spray paint can and floor the accelerator
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:18 AM on January 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


But there are also millions of people who do actually need their government (or contractor) salary, or who rely on government services which would not be available during a long term government shutdown. This is not a minor cost to pay, and in general shutting down the government is not a healthy negotiation strategy.

I agree with you that this is not how things should be done. I’m not a rich guy who can afford to go without pay. However, I think that some things are worth fighting for even if it hurts me some (I don’t mean for this to sound snippy or judgmental). I’m astonished that leadership has given away its leverage — however scant it was — with nothing to show for it but promises from Mitch McConnell (TTTCS). Maybe there was no clear path to victory here, but what a lot of us want to see is commitment to the cause. Proof that Dems will actually fight for people. That’s not what we saw today. Senator Cardin’s staff are going to hear from me after his disgraceful behavior, I can tell you.
posted by wintermind at 10:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Splinter has a list of Democrats voting in favor of the CR.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I agree with the positives above. CHIP is funded for 6 years and McConnell either has to deliver on his promise on DACA or he's not getting a deal next time. Ultimately McConnell controls what comes up and what doesn't. You've got to work with him until you can win control in November.

Fighting on the optics of this is important between now and then. "McConnell shut the government down, Democrats got it back open", "McConnell broke his promises, Democrats forced him to honor them", "Democrats got CHIP funded".
posted by IanMorr at 10:20 AM on January 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


As pragmatic strategy, it kind of makes sense: take CHIP off the table, get a public commitment for a DACA vote, give the red-state moderates a chance to do the red-state moderate dance. If McConnell reneges, then Flake and Graham look like suckers (again) and Dems who voted no this time like Harris and Feinstein get to say "I told you so." But that relies on McConnell having a sense of shame, so oh well.

And the weekend has seen a shift in the optics, where Real President Miller and Shadow Speaker Mark Meadows have embraced the notion that DACA recipients are essentially sleeper agents of the illegal hordes and are holding Our Brave Military hostage. I can't see a shift back any time soon, especially with Dems on record as being willing to fund the Stupid Fucking Wall. At the same time, DACA recipients know that ICE can pull up their names and addresses from a federal database the day after their status lapses. The ethno-nationalists come out of this one stronger.
posted by holgate at 10:20 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


wanted to be a big man drawing a line that they wouldn't cross. He then proceeded to erase the line, pretend the line wasn't really that solid and he didn't get a damn thing for it

So? This isn't and shouldn't be about looking "tough" and definitely not about defending Schumer's manhood.
posted by OnceUponATime at 10:21 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Oh great. So we lose all institutional knowledge in two branches of government and start from scratch.

Considering that the current "institutional knowledge" seems to be comprised of either

a) cutting funding to social services, passing laws that benefit the top 1% wealthiest Americans, and eroding health care, and

b) coming up with increasingly-miquetoast ways of giving in to those in group a...

....I don't see what the loss would be.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:23 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


10 McConnell either has to deliver on his promise on DACA or he's not getting a deal next time.
20 GOTO 10
posted by delfin at 10:24 AM on January 22, 2018 [36 favorites]


keeping the Federal government shut down indefinitely is itself hugely damaging.

Someone I know who's pretty high up in Marines civilian service commented on facebook this morning that she had over a dozen new employees today find out they don't have a job - no salary, benefits, and no matter what they won't be paid when things spin back up again. Even if you don't assume they had tasks to do to benefit service Marines, those people are getting fucked over. The economy is getting fucked over by their not having money to spend and the people who later do have that money - assuming generously that Congress opts to pay the non-criticals - probably won't spend what they would have since not all expenditures are deferrable/elastic.

It's not that the shutdown is costless, it's that Schumer got into this facacta situation by witholding cloture in the first place because he wanted to be a big man drawing a line that they wouldn't cross. He then proceeded to erase the line, pretend the line wasn't really that solid and he didn't get a damn thing for it in the end.

Ehhhhhhh I think anybody claiming a cut and dried good or bad here is having too narrow a view. I don't think you have to be overly generous to say that you could force a stand-off that you later have to back away from and nevertheless get a positive value out of the ceremony of it. If you don't go into things that have the possibility to fail you never get anything. If you never accept and react to being in a situation with only one probably exit by backing down then you're a fool who'd rather burn it all down rather than lose face. And we already have one party controlled by folks like that.
posted by phearlez at 10:24 AM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


@edatpost: "We’re making progress by inches," @SenatorCollins (R-Maine) said as the meeting in her office ended. Urged Dems to trust McConnell and move forward with reopening the government.

First of all, Collins lost any credibility to "urge Dems" with her tax cut vote. Second, even if the Democrats did trust McConnell, which they shouldn't do, they can trust Ryan to torpedo any Democratic priority in the House.

This entire situation is a Republican mess. They need Democratic votes to fix it, they need to be the ones to pay the price.
posted by Gelatin at 10:25 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


So? This isn't and shouldn't be about looking "tough" and definitely not about defending Schumer's manhood.

It shouldn't but that's what happened. Is a week long shutdown worth it to not deport 800,000 kids who have only ever known America? Probably.

Is it worth three days of chaos for Schumer to fold like Superman on laundry day? Hell no.
posted by Talez at 10:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Welcome to our two-party system, the Party of No and the Party of Blink.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 10:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


This entire situation is a Republican mess. They need Democratic votes to fix it, they need to be the ones to pay the price.

Uh I mean, ok, but they’re not. The people being affected by the shutdown are. I would rather the Dems dealt with reality.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


10 McConnell either has to deliver on his promise on DACA or he's not getting a deal next time.
20 GOTO 10


Then that's your narrative for November sorted out. Honestly, a group whose main criticism seems to be that the Democrat party folds too easy shouldn't roll over and immediately accept the Republican narrative that this is a win for Mitch McConnell and Trump.
posted by IanMorr at 10:29 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


-this is a CR to provide funds until February 8th, so chance to redo dealing at that point given [lack of] progress on DACA...?

This is why I don't share the sense of disappointment. It's not time to be disappointed just yet. Here's the Vox roundup of where we stand. We have three more weeks to duke it out and the Republican factions involved are a mess.

Ok — what does that cost? Serious question. What does that cost the country, to have the Federal fucking Governemnt shut down, indefinitely? How many services are cut off? How many people go broke? How many people die?

If we deport the Dreamers, what does THAT cost us? I'm not even one of them, but like, we all saw what happened to the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has promised not to make them leave, and those refugees only stopped streaming across the border into Bangladesh 2 weeks ago. If we deport the dreamers...we're Myanmar. I mean it's a little hyperbolic to call what ICE does ethnic cleansing, but when we're perpetrating mass roundups of people not the majority ethnicity...where do YOU draw the line?

I'm glad they shut down the government, I'm glad we got CHIP, and glad it bought us more time to not do something horrific to nearly a million Americans (that's who DACA is to protect, Americans). For that, a 3 day shutdown was worth it.
posted by saysthis at 10:30 AM on January 22, 2018 [31 favorites]


It shouldn't but that's what happened. Is a week long shutdown worth it not to deport 800,000 kids who have only ever known America? Probably.

I doubt any dem, including Schumer, disagrees, But this presumes a cost and conclusion that is not certain.
posted by phearlez at 10:32 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Fox News: DEMS BLINK—Team Schumer caves on filibuster, paving way for end to government shutdown

Breitbart: SCHUMER CHUCKS UP! AMNESTY SHUTDOWN OVER — SURRENDER:DEMOCRATS GET NOTHING

Great job, guys. Fan fucking tastic.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:36 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


For that, a 3 day shutdown was worth it.

Agreed. I was asking about an indefinite shutdown, which is something the Republicans seem to get kind of excited about. Because shiny and chrome.

And this is why I don’t get why people in this thread are so apocalyptic about the prospect of a temporary deal. This way we get another 3 weeks to try to save the Dreamers. What’s happening to them — and lets be clear, as someone mentioned upthread, they’re going after all immigrants and anyone remotely brown — is fucking monstrous, and another three weeks is not costless for them, either. But this way maybe there’s time to get them something.

If the alternative is the Republicans going full Nazi and publicly calling Dreamers terrorists and a bunch of other batshit insane things...I mean. I will take the three weeks to try to save them. Which is what we may need to launch a press offensive to try to control the narrative.

But the reality is that the Republicans control all three branches of government. The Democrats are being charged with a responsibility they have no power to meet. They’re doing what they can - and now the rest of us have to shore up the gaps in the next three weeks (probably).
posted by schadenfrau at 10:38 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


There is no reality in which any outcome would have gotten us a "FOILED AGAIN, AND WE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY WITH IT IF NOT FOR PESKY DEMOCRATS" headline from Fox/Breitbart.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:38 AM on January 22, 2018 [81 favorites]


Honestly, a group whose main criticism seems to be that the Democrat party folds too easy shouldn't roll over and immediately accept the Republican narrative that this is a win for Mitch McConnell and Trump.

I'm a bit shocked, perhaps naively, at how swiftly and overwhelmingly headlines and Dems/liberals are going with the "stupid wimpy Dem cave-in" narrative.

I mean, there are plenty of wimpier ways they could have approached this. And it's not like the GOP gained that much compared to their starting demands, right? (Considering their starting posture was "no compromise"...)
None of us knows what's going to happen before or at the next vote in two weeks, nor the effects of this process on midterms...
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 10:39 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


Moronic as this is, I do think there's an argument that this sets up a stronger negotiating position in three weeks: when there's no progress on DACA by then, Democrats can point to a broken promise as a reason they won't vote for the CR. I think they got terrified that a barrage of "shutdown the government to help illegal immigrants" messaging and they had no damn counter-messaging of their own (seriously, why wasn't McConnell refusing to pay the military running on every TV screen?). A threat to do this again in three weeks with a stronger hand is ever so slightly better than nothing, but not much.

Anyway, please enjoy some good news:
@Dan_F_Jacobson: WE WON! The PA Supreme Court just held that PA's congressional districts violate the PA constitution and ordered a new map for 2018!
posted by zachlipton at 10:39 AM on January 22, 2018 [88 favorites]


I've grown a certain amount of distaste for the analysis of our politics that's about tactical minutiae, like looking at what Schumer did or should have done on an hour-by-hour basis, because I think it valorizes politicians in ways that don't have that much to do with their actual jobs, and ends up kind of being like a wonky version of the people who voted for Trump because he was good at "making deals".

There is something of a bigger picture issue here, though, which is that arguably the Democratic Party's biggest problem right now is that it has an incredibly hard time convincing voters that as an institution it stands for anything or has any bedrock principles that it fully and unreservedly backs. It honestly seems like everything is up for negotiation or at the whim of influential donors, and this is fundamentally a terrible way to operate a political party in the long term, or at least as a minority party right now. It's hard to be enthusiastic about people who have told you through their words and deeds that they will sell out your personal interests in a heartbeat for the slight chance that Mitch McConnell won't lie to them or for the dream that suburban Republicans might stop thinking that they're all traitors for 10 seconds. This felt like a chance for the Democrats in Congress to outline at least one principle they wouldn't trade away in some sort of grand bargain, and they blew it.
posted by Copronymus at 10:39 AM on January 22, 2018 [29 favorites]


I still think making him miss his Mar-a-Lago party was a win.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 10:41 AM on January 22, 2018 [110 favorites]


Moronic as this is, I do think there's an argument that this sets up a stronger negotiating position in three weeks: when there's no progress on DACA by then, Democrats can point to a broken promise as a reason they won't vote for the CR.

Or they could point to the broken promise now -- McConnell and Ryan both already promised that DACA would be part of a spending bill and/or that they'd bring it up for a vote in January. And surprise, surprise, they lied.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


There is no reality in which any outcome would have gotten us a "FOILED AGAIN, AND WE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY WITH IT IF NOT FOR PESKY DEMOCRATS" headline from Fox/Breitbart.

Right, now we get three weeks of similar headlines from the NYT, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, etc instead.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


If you go for the king, you'd best not miss. Schumer missed and he needs to be replaced ASAP.

If Schumer wanted to have a show down, he needed to be ready to follow through.

This looks weak because it is weak. He shut down the government, got exactly nothing for it, and caved. We say he caved because that's exactly what he did. There's no spin here that can make the Democrats look good.

If this was going to be the end scenario then Shumer would have been better off just letting the CR pass without any shutdown. He'd have looked a hell of a lot less weak that way than he does this way.

I don't know what the procedure is for changing Minority Leader in the middle of a session, but if its possible the Democrats need to do that ASAP. Schumer is hurting us.
posted by sotonohito at 10:46 AM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


> I still think making him miss his Mar-a-Lago party was a win.

Yeah, call me petty, but marking the one year anniversary of this administration with Women's Marches and a government shutdown seems like a net win.

And although we care about the tactics in obsessive detail, the bigger picture is that the Dems lost the election, and have no power - not the Presidency, nor the House or Senate. And as a result, they lost of tax cuts, but managed to stave off the all-out assault on the ACA thanks to some lucky defections.

This time round, Democrats were willing to shut down the government to try to make progress with the Dreamers, but relented for 3 weeks so that the government could re-open and kids could have health insurance - yes, I'll take that.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:46 AM on January 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


He shut down the government, got exactly nothing for it

Six years of funding so that poor children can have basic health care

is

not

nothing
posted by joyceanmachine at 10:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [119 favorites]


This looks weak because it is weak. He shut down the government, got exactly nothing for it, and caved.

I don't consider 6 years of funding for CHIP to be "nothing".
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


zachlipton: "@Dan_F_Jacobson: WE WON! The PA Supreme Court just held that PA's congressional districts violate the PA constitution and ordered a new map for 2018!"

HOLY SHITBALLS. This means an almost certain pickup of a couple of seats in PA. And, you know, ending an almost cartoonish perversion of democracy.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [60 favorites]


I don't consider 6 years of funding for CHIP to be "nothing".

look do you want to circle up for this firing squad or not
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:51 AM on January 22, 2018 [104 favorites]


Six years of funding so that poor children can have basic health care

Except they had that already before the shutdown.
posted by Talez at 10:52 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Great job, guys. Fan fucking tastic.

I think everyone is right to point out that McConnel and Ryan will welch on this bet in 3 weeks but that doesn't mean it was a bad deal. They got CHIP out of the way, and shown they will in fact shut the gov't down to force the GOP to the table on DACA. Next time around they're in an even better bargaining position, and can still shut it down again. I never expected them to actually do a shutdown the first time around, so I'm slightly more confident they won't blink next time.
posted by dis_integration at 10:52 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


In other news...

Here's a leaked draft infrastructure plan, via Politico. There's no dollar amount attached, but there's an emphasis on private finance. Oh, and toll roads (which aren't actually bad from an economic perspective, though a horribly regressive tax, but man are they unpopular).

I don't particularly trust Gabe Sherman's sources, but for what it's worth, from Vanity Fair, Ii’ve got another nut job here who thinks he’s running things”: are Trump and Kelly heading for divorce?
Trump’s anger at Kelly’s immigration comments is the latest flare-up in a relationship that has been deteriorating for months. A four-star marine general, Kelly was never going to be an easy fit in a West Wing with a Lord of the Flies office culture. Staffers have bristled at Kelly’s rectitude, nicknaming him “the Church Lady,” a former official said.

Trump has increasingly been chafing at the media narrative that he needs Kelly to instill discipline on his freewheeling management style. “The more Kelly plays up that he’s being the adult in the room—that it’s basically combat duty and he’s serving the country—that kind of thing drives Trump nuts,” a Republican close to the White House said. In recent days, Trump has fumed to friends that Kelly acts like he’s running the government while Trump tweets and watches television. “I’ve got another nut job here who thinks he’s running things,” Trump told one friend, according to a Republican briefed on the call. A second source confirmed that Trump has vented about Kelly, mentioning one call in which Trump said, “This guy thinks he’s running the show.” (A White House official said “it’s categorically false that Trump is unhappy with Kelly. “He’s only ever referred to him as the general, tough, can be rough, and commands respect.)
...
Trump, for his part, is frustrated that he’s not getting more credit for positive news like the booming stock market and low unemployment numbers. In recent days, he told a longtime friend that the national polls, which put his approval numbers in the low 30s, are under-representing the real number. Trump insisted his approval rating is in the high 50s. The friend challenged him, but Trump didn’t want to hear it. He soon ended the call.
Ivanka is supposedly searching for a replacement, though the story speculates this will be like Sessions, where Kelly sticks around but Trump stays furious at him.
posted by zachlipton at 10:53 AM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


Counting CHIP as a win makes sense from a policy perspective -- we all want a resumption of CHIP -- but Republicans said they wanted it to, so counting that as a strategic outcome of the shutdown doesn't make sense. We all know that many of them couldn't give a wet shit about CHIP recipients, but when their public position is "we want CHIP, but Democrats won't let us have it because DACA", then you have to hold them to that, and you can't accept something they say they want as a fair trade for sacrificing the leverage that the shutdown gives you.

I understand that the shutdown hurts. I'm not a federal employee, but my salary is paid for by federal research dollars, so anything that hurts our sponsors hurts us eventually. The temporary shutdown has already forced us to miss a delivery deadline and go without funding from one of our sponsors, and will likely cost us future work as our funding gets redirected toward the sponsors' "keep the lights on" budgets.

Still, I won't pretend for a second that my fate is anything near what actual federal workers are dealing with, or what people who depend on government services would have to deal with. Those things suck. The thing is, it's a cold reality of politics now that shutdowns are the only way to change policy. I didn't choose that reality, but I can't substitute my own, either. With that as a given, the idea is to reduce the area under the "future suffering" curve, while also acknowledging that the shutdown itself creates suffering on its own. It's a vicious trolley problem, and I acknowledge many variables are murky or even unknowable, but I do know that getting nothing the GOP wasn't already verbally committed to offering isn't an outcome that will bend that "future suffering" curve at all. That's very regrettable.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:54 AM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Just saying but if I was Mark Meadows right now and wanted to be unbelievably evil I'd turn the whole thing on its head and not vote for the CR bill unless they strip CHIP from it just to fuck with the Democrats.
posted by Talez at 10:55 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]




but when their public position is "we want CHIP, but Democrats won't let us have it because DACA", then you have to hold them to that

I hear that, but now that's off the table at least: the Rs have lost the ability to say the Dems are selling out little widdle children to save illegal immigrants. I honestly don't know how to get out of this mess. A CR is better than caving on the DACA, they've got three weeks to put their fucking heads together and come up with demands that will play well in a soundbite.

And princess Trump missed his debutante ball, so there's that.
posted by lydhre at 11:00 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


If the Northam campaign and win taught me anything it's that there's a sizable stretch of folks who will swear up and down that any current dem action and strategy is stupid and wrong and heading towards certain and predictable failure, up to and until the very moment the win is in hand. At which point about half of those people will go on and on about how brilliant it was. It's nice to see some consistency in this crazy world.
posted by phearlez at 11:01 AM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


"welch" or "welsh" are considered derogatory in this usage

Wow I had no idea. Good to know.

posted by dis_integration at 11:03 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Aren't all votes "up or down votes"?
posted by thelonius at 11:03 AM on January 22, 2018


If the Dems don't have a killer commercial featuring a supercut of every Trump and McConnell/Ryan lie on the Dreamers ready to start playing non-stop everywhere on Feb 7, they can fuck right off.
posted by FelliniBlank at 11:05 AM on January 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


So, am I correct in reading this CR has to clear the House?
posted by azpenguin at 11:05 AM on January 22, 2018


Aren't all votes "up or down votes"?

In the Senate it means that the majority leader will assure they will use their clout to either stop a filibuster or assure cloture even if there aren't 60 votes in favor of the actual legislation.
posted by Talez at 11:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Aren't all votes "up or down votes"?

I think this is another way of calling something a clean vote. When a vote is described as up-or-down it means that Congress (or one of the houses) will vote on only that bill, not add a bunch of amendments about separate issues.

...
On preview, apparently that is not what it is.
posted by Emmy Rae at 11:07 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Chrysostom: "zachlipton: "@Dan_F_Jacobson: WE WON! The PA Supreme Court just held that PA's congressional districts violate the PA constitution and ordered a new map for 2018!"

HOLY SHITBALLS. This means an almost certain pickup of a couple of seats in PA. And, you know, ending an almost cartoonish perversion of democracy.
"

How is this even going to work though? The primary is in four months and it seems like there's a huge amount of work to do before then. I mean, the current candidates might not even be in the new districts.
posted by octothorpe at 11:08 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


In recent days, Trump has fumed to friends that Kelly acts like he’s running the government while Trump tweets and watches television.

Keep pushing that, and mention that President Pence is waiting in the wings to take over when Trump has his next massive tantrum. Convince him to throw out everyone every few weeks - our best chance of minimizing the damage of this administration is to keep any one person from taking the reins and pushing their specific agenda.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:09 AM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


FelliniBlank: "If the Dems don't have a killer commercial featuring a supercut of every Trump and McConnell/Ryan lie on the Dreamers ready to start playing non-stop everywhere on Feb 7, they can fuck right off."

The news networks won't play it. All the major news networks have no interest in being the moral core of this country, which they've shown repeatedly over the last year. They'll just hew to both-sidesism because that's what they know and they'll keep fiddling that tune until it all burns down.
posted by TypographicalError at 11:10 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


So, am I correct in reading this CR has to clear the House?

Yes, but it will. The Freedom Caucus already says they'll vote for it. I don't see how the House wants to be responsible for prolonging a shutdown.

Watch this space though, re the delay in the Senate:
On the Senate floor, Richard Burr says there is an intelligence spending provision in the CR that he finds "troublesome" — that allows White House to spend intelligence funds on programs not explicitly authorized by Congress.
Burr and his Democratic counterpart Mark Warner are asking for unanimous consent to replace the intelligence provision with language crafted by intelligence committee leaders in both the House and Senate.
UPDATE: Sen. Thad Cochran objects, provision will remain. Burr yields back "with great disappointment."
A provision that allows the White House to shift intelligence funding is kind of boilerplate, but also feels like it's foreshadowing something awful in a year we'll all slap our heads over and go "damn, so that's what that was about."
posted by zachlipton at 11:12 AM on January 22, 2018 [34 favorites]


that allows White House to spend intelligence funds on programs not explicitly authorized by Congress

I'd love to know how broad this authorisation is, because I can see this WH trying to do something like spend the whole 'deep state' budget on oh, say, The Wall. 'Troublesome' is likely an understatement.
posted by halation at 11:15 AM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


"welch" or "welsh" are considered derogatory in this usage

Renege (rhymes with "green egg") is a good substitute. "Will the Republicans renege on their deal?"

f the Northam campaign and win taught me anything it's that there's a sizable stretch of folks who will swear up and down that any current dem action and strategy is stupid and wrong and heading towards certain and predictable failure, up to and until the very moment the win is in hand. At which point about half of those people will go on and on about how brilliant it was. It's nice to see some consistency in this crazy world.


I have seen this so so much, and it has gotten to the point where I just ignore it. In fact, I was so used to Democratic pearl-clutching, hand-wringing, and pants-wetting that I was as shocked as anyone when Hillary Clinton lost - because I assumed any fretting and worries and "clouds and shadows" was just more crying wolf.

That's the problem with Democratic Eeyore-ing and fretting - that when the time comes being an Eeyore is called for, Eeyore is just another Cassandra, because the endless "womp womp" has become background noise.

The Democrats, for now, are the minority party in all three branches; they were forced into a Sophie's Choice with government employees, DREAMers, and poor kids. And don't forget that government employees are more likely to be Democrats, and the government is a major employer of African-Americans. You can't blame Democratic Senators for thinking that a government shutdown would hurt their constituents and cost them votes.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:17 AM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


For all the talk of hostage taking by the R's on this CR vote, is what happened today not the equivalent of sending a pizza to the hostage taker in exchange for them allowing one of the hostages to leave with the delivery guy? Now on Feb 8 when the D's shut it down again, aren't we where we were this past week except this time the R's can't go on about D's valuing illegal immigrants over uninsured children? We get them to give up hostages one by one, one 3 day shutdown at a time, until they have nothing left but DACA and then the framing is solely "R's refuse to fund government over issue with 70% bipartisan approval" or whatever.
posted by jermsplan at 11:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


The news networks won't play it. All the major news networks have no interest in being the moral core of this country, which they've shown repeatedly over the last year. They'll just hew to both-sidesism because that's what they know and they'll keep fiddling that tune until it all burns down.

Well sure, but they also typically don't turn down advertising $$. Hell, even Fox played that Tom Steyer ad for a week or two.
posted by FelliniBlank at 11:19 AM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


A provision that allows the White House to shift intelligence funding is kind of boilerplate, but also feels like it's foreshadowing something awful ...

This exactly happens in Scandal ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:20 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


A little more info from Marc Levy at the AP on the Pennsylvania gerrymandering case:
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday struck down the boundaries of the state’s 18 congressional districts, granting a major victory to plaintiffs who had contended that they were unconstitutionally gerrymandered to benefit Republicans.

The order from the Democratic-controlled court gives the Republican-controlled Legislature until Feb. 9 to pass a replacement and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf until Feb. 15 to submit it to the court.

Otherwise, the justices say they will adopt a plan in an effort to keep the May 15 primary election on track.

The state’s congressional delegation is controlled by Republicans, 13-5, even though registered Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans.
posted by joyceanmachine at 11:20 AM on January 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


The news networks won't play it.

They don't need to - Colbert will. YouTube will host it; it'll go viral across Twitter and Tumblr.

And when people yell, "what the hell are you doing, threatening to shut down the government," there'll be something to point them at. It'd be lovely if it were shown across the major news networks, but it's more important that the key points are available in a nice 30- to 45-second video that people can watch.

It's not like we need to persuade the F'News watchers. And I love the few times they get blindsided by something that went viral online, like the SOPA deal.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:22 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Manu Raju: Burr and Warner both furious with appropriators for adding language in the CR that limits Senate Intel’s ability to direct the intelligence community to spend money. Language was added at OMB’s request

Emphasis mine. What the fuck is Mulvaney up to?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 11:23 AM on January 22, 2018 [33 favorites]


All the major news networks have no interest in being the moral core of this country

In (bleak) fairness, the news networks won't play it because the public debate on immigration is as big a dumpster fire as the system itself. It is a part of the federal government that is by definition opaque to the majority of voters and journalists and perceptions are defined by folklore, bullshit and sloganeering. Look at how quickly the Miller/Krikorian coinage "chain migration" took hold for a process that applied somewhere (relatively uncontroversially) on most Americans' family trees in the past couple of generations. The Dream/DACA situation is one of the few areas with space to carve out a pragmatic fix, but there's political benefit on the right to fling it back into the murk. I think a lot of Republicans would be fine with an administrative fix, but don't want a legislative one on their record; they're also thinking that the abstract public desire for a DACA fix doesn't translate into punishing them for not implementing one, and may perhaps even hurt Dems more. Because the American public debate on immigration sucks. Rinse and repeat.

UPDATE: Sen. Thad Cochran objects, provision will remain

(That's the same Thad Cochran who couldn't find his way to the Senate chamber recently.)
posted by holgate at 11:25 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Emphasis mine. What the fuck is Mulvaney up to?

I'd guess he's an incompetent traitor who tried to sneakily gum up and slow down the investigation into his treasonous boss, and has now has pissed off the Senators overseeing that investigation.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


The real person we need to get Trump to turn on is Stephen Miller, the second racist Wormtongue. I would bet he's the one getting deep into the minutiae of ICE policies while Trump keeps agitating for a useless wall.
posted by benzenedream at 11:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


octothorpe: "How is this even going to work though? The primary is in four months and it seems like there's a huge amount of work to do before then. I mean, the current candidates might not even be in the new districts."

I met with two of the Dems running for the nom in PA-12 the other night, and everyone is watching this very closely. I think there's some thought that the court might order a slight delay in the primary, if necessary, or at least some of the dates for getting on the ballot, etc.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:27 AM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Julia Azari at FiveThirtyEight warns us against misplaced nostalgia for a more unified era: Politics is more partisan now, but not more divisive.
By some measures, the United States is more partisan than ever, but that more peaceful and unified past, that golden age of unity, was … pretty much never...American history is also riddled with divisions, including over many of the same questions that divide us now. In particular, race and immigration have long fueled intense fights. The difference is that much of the historical conflict on these issues occurred within parties, so we have to look beyond the tensions between Republicans and Democrats to understand it. Or, often these fights remained outside of electoral politics altogether, and thus those issues went unaddressed. While they might have made for some quieter presidential election years, these dynamics masked serious problems, like inequality, exclusion and violence.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:32 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


By the way, if you are looking for a state rep candidate to support, may I suggest Michele Knoll [PA-HD-44]. She's a special ed teacher, and I've been favorably impressed by her.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:34 AM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mod note: Hey I know there's just kind of a ton of shitty free-floating energy right now on account of shit being fucked but please folks let's try to keep this thread halfway focused and maybe take the excess boiling-over energy other places or sublimate it into something else.
posted by cortex (staff) at 11:44 AM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


The real person we need to get Trump to turn on is Stephen Miller, the second racist Wormtongue. I would bet he's the one getting deep into the minutiae of ICE policies while Trump keeps agitating for a useless wall.

The NYTimes lays it on Kelly:
Mr. Kelly, a retired four-star general who headed the United States Southern Command and was Mr. Trump’s first homeland security secretary, has emphasized immigration enforcement inside the country rather than policing the borders while Mr. Trump has indicated that is not as high a priority for him.
And the WSJ points at Kelly but says Miller is worse:
Steeled by three years in Latin America as the head of U.S. Southern Command, Mr. Kelly had a front-row seat for drug trafficking and illegal immigration troubles in the region. White House aides said their staff chief is just as adamant about border security as the president. Mr. Kelly also led the Department of Homeland Security, where he began implementing Mr. Trump’s tougher immigration-enforcement policies.

His interest in border security overlaps with the nationalist impulses within the administration, including Stephen Miller, the White House’s senior policy adviser, and Mr. Bannon, the former chief strategist. But White House aides said that Mr. Kelly isn’t as restrictionist as Mr. Miller
posted by peeedro at 11:45 AM on January 22, 2018 [15 favorites]




I think they got terrified that a barrage of "shutdown the government to help illegal immigrants" messaging and they had no damn counter-messaging of their own (seriously, why wasn't McConnell refusing to pay the military running on every TV screen?).

Because the media isn't liberal.

But seriously, taking McConnell's dishonest "Democrats are taking away children's health care to side with illegals!" talking point is progress, as is actually funding CHIP (and I hope Democrats are at work preparing ads saying it took an actual government shutdown to get the Republicans to do it).

Not fixing DACA yet stinks, but the Democrats will get another bite at the apple -- the Republicans' own budget incompetence guarantees it. Then Democrats can point out to a media all too eager to run the "Democrats to blame" narrative that the Republicans could have fixed this issue and didn't because they are scared of their own rump wing.

That's why it's becoming more and more clear how much the Republicans are an anti-immigrant party, and there isn't a lot of future left in that position. Republican actions also help pave the way for a Democratic President and Congress to break up ICE and CPB and scatter the pieces to the winds.
posted by Gelatin at 11:49 AM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


How is this even going to work though? The primary is in four months and it seems like there's a huge amount of work to do before then. I mean, the current candidates might not even be in the new districts.

It's not quite out of the woods yet: @JakeCorman and @senatorscarnati are outraged at court decision throwing out congressional map and they hope to go for a stay from the U.S. Supreme Court by week's end. This is the same tactic used in NC to prevent redrawing maps for their 2018 elections. I'm not sure what the stay would do beyond preserve the current map for the 2018 midterms.
posted by gladly at 11:50 AM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


A provision that allows the White House to shift intelligence funding is kind of boilerplate, but also feels like it's foreshadowing something awful in a year we'll all slap our heads over and go "damn, so that's what that was about."

How long has it been since the Trump regime floated the idea of having their own intelligence section/service/sycophants? I know that has definitely been a thing, but it's been enough Scaramuccis ago that I can't remember when.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:50 AM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Mike Pence Snubbed by Arab Politicians in Israel Over Trump Jerusalem Decision

There's a lot of that going on:
Originally, Pence’s trip was supposed to focus on Christian persecution, according to The Washington Post. But influential religious leaders in Egypt—including Tawadros II, the Coptic patriarch, and Ahmed al-Tayeb, the head of Al-Azhar mosque—refused to meet with him. Palestinian Christian leaders, including Munib Younan, the former head of the Lutheran World Federation, have spoken out against the vice president’s visit.
posted by peeedro at 11:54 AM on January 22, 2018 [28 favorites]


@JakeCorman and @senatorscarnati are outraged at court decision throwing out congressional map and they hope to go for a stay from the U.S. Supreme Court by week's end.

Interestingly, the Reuters report by Joseph Ax, Richard Chang, and James Dalgliesh says this:
The Pennsylvania lawsuit, filed by the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania, relied on the state constitution, which means the court’s decision cannot be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
This lines up with my hazy, non-specialist, decade+ old memories from law school, but I guess we'll see. In the meantime, yay League of Women Voters in PA for bringing this lawsuit.
posted by joyceanmachine at 12:02 PM on January 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


Pence’s trip was supposed to focus on Christian persecution, according to The Washington Post.

Turns out that the region's Christians are kinda icky if you're that kind of evangelical, but the Jewish leaders who he thinks will trigger Jesus: The Sequel (and then have to convert or be damned) seem cool, as do the American End Times preachers based in the region and the Arab autocrats who don't give a fuck about Christian communities.
posted by holgate at 12:09 PM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


In (bleak) fairness, the news networks won't play it because the public debate on immigration is as big a dumpster fire as the system itself. It is a part of the federal government that is by definition opaque to the majority of voters and journalists and perceptions are defined by folklore, bullshit and sloganeering.

Fuck me, I've been through the US immigration process and I barely understand it. It's that opaque and hard to navigate. Regarding the public debate, or whatever passes for it... well, the patriotic "bring me your poor" narrative I grew up ruminating on has coexisted along the narrative of the dirty, filthy, crime-ridden slumdwellers filling Our Nation since there was a nation to clutch pearls over.

It can't be that hard for a journalist to pick a position in that perennial national fight, can it?
posted by sciatrix at 12:17 PM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Yeah, the view of voting experts is that SCOTUS is very unlikely to take up any appeal on the PA gerrymandering case. As pointed out, it's state law (unlike the NC case), so there's no direct appeal of the ruling. You'd have to prove that the PA SC is acting unconstitutionally - violating equal population in districts, maybe some kind of 14th amendment issue?

A few years back, the FL SC found districts illegal based on their state constitution, SCOTUS stayed out of it, except to reject a VRA challenge. So the precedent is for staying out.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:21 PM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


It can't be that hard for a journalist to pick a position in that perennial national fight, can it?

The dithering is about the problem of figuring out which position will sell the most papers.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:21 PM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


> I hear that, but now that's off the table at least: the Rs have lost the ability to say the Dems are selling out little widdle children to save illegal immigrants.

The Rs were going to say that anyway. To the extent that this helps neutralize that talking point, or that the media narrative changes in any way that's favorable to Democrats, it comes at the expense of Dreamers. Maybe it's pragmatically the right move to go with the option that prevents harm to government workers and guarantees CHIP right now, but if the whole point of the shutdown was no CHIP without DACA and we've accepted CHIP with no meaningful path toward DACA, I'm not going to jump for joy, and am not sanguine about the Democrats' resolve for the fights ahead.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:22 PM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Fuck me, I've been through the US immigration process and I barely understand it.

I've worked as an immigration paralegal for the past thirteen years and... yeah.
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:25 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Yes, that's my point: the discussion isn't actually that hard for a journalist to wrap their head around, even if many Americans have never bothered to consider what the process is and how it works currently, nor how they would ideally like it to work or in what situations. It can't be opacity thinning their ranks; it's got to be either corruption or a sullen lack of interest.

Realistically, understanding the US immigration process can be boiled down to "unbelievably expensive, ridiculously time-consuming, intolerant of even the smallest mistake on the submitter side, slow and fraught with incomprehensible stupidity." That's our current method. But you'd be surprised how many people think that (for example) you marry an American citizen and that's it, welcome across the border!
posted by sciatrix at 12:27 PM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


(Some of) a good thread on the aforementioned leaked infrastructure plan, from Yonah Freemark:
No funding figures are attached to this document. But we should assume that they're going to ask for $200 billion in grants over ten years, which is what has previously been discussed. It would, as we've heard, prioritize projects associated with new, non-federal revenue. This would account for 70% of the scoring criteria for new projects. This means, essentially, that projects without new local/state funding couldn't be supported by feds. This makes sense as the whole framing of the Trump proposal has been that it is incentivizing "$1 trillion" in spending. This is only possible if other, non-federal, sources of funding become available.
...
Grants would only be able to fund 20% of project costs. This would be a huge decline from current standards, in which the federal government sometimes pays upwards of 50% of the cost for new transit projects. Criteria for project selection weighted *very heavily* toward local/state funds. Only 5% of scoring goes to benefits of project. As we've long expected, this funding will likely mostly support things like massive toll roads & oil pipelines
...
The proposal suggests essentially allowing Private Activity Bonds to fund public projects now in private hands. This is designed to provide a tax benefit for private investment in infrastructure. It would also include a change in federal legislation to encourage tolling of Interstate highways, which is now mostly illegal. This is important if these projects are going to provide local funding. Changes for highways would be designed to make projects move forward more quickly before environmental review is completed. For unclear reasons, this is not the case for transit projects.

Note: This is just a leaked draft. Details could change. But the initial conclusion we can take from this proposal is that the administration's priority is in projects that can largely be funded with user fees, not on creating infrastructure for the public benefit.
As I read it, the whole thing is designed to deliver a bunch of toll roads (judged by how much money they'll make, rather than their contribution to transportation) backed by private investors using tax-advantaged bonds. A federal match of only 20% and the focus on revenue seems outright designed to ensure little of the money goes to the sort of urban mass transit infrastructure we desperately need.

Also missing from the draft: any idea of how to pay for it.
posted by zachlipton at 12:29 PM on January 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


The goal was no government without DACA. CHIP should have been a separate thing that got passed months ago, and Democrats have been saying they'll vote for it every day and twice on Sunday as long as it's by itself. The Republicans theoretically want CHIP too. So it shouldn't have been a negotiating chip at all. But they kept sabotaging it, presumably so it would be a hostage in this situation.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:32 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


> Splinter has a list of Democrats voting in favor of the CR.

From the WaPo roundup:
Channeling rage from immigration activists, the possible 2020 candidates were highly critical of their leaders’ willingness to trust that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will allow an immigration vote after Feb. 8 if senators cannot strike a deal before then.

“I believe it’s been a false choice that’s been presented” between keeping the government open and resolving the DACA issue, said Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), who voted no. “I believe we can do both.”

A majority of Democrats had forced the shutdown with demands for a vote on legislation to protect Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients, known as “dreamers,” from deportation after Trump canceled the program. The final agreement did not include these protections, nor any specific guarantee of a vote.

Other possible White House contenders who voted against the bill included Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Democratic and independent senators who relented in the standoff said they did not necessarily trust McConnell, but had faith that the bipartisan negotiators, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), would force him to abide by his commitments.

“I think frankly our trust is more with our colleagues, that they will hold him accountable,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who is up for reelection this year in a state Trump won.

“A commitment this public, with this much fanfare — that’s kind of hard to back away from just three weeks from now,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who sided with Democrats on Friday in the vote that produced the shutdown.
Democrats casting their lot in with Collins and Manchin. What could possibly go wrong.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:34 PM on January 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


I know this will come as a shock to you, but I think the President might just be racist, and also, why is this buried in the 12th paragraph? WaPo, Up to 1,000 more U.S. troops could be headed to Afghanistan this spring:
Senior administration officials said that the president has been known to affect an Indian accent and imitate Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who in an Oval Office meeting last year told him, “Never has a country given so much away for so little in return” as the United States in Afghanistan.
And then he hires people to do racist things: Trump voting commission bought Texas election data flagging Hispanic voters
President Trump’s voting commission asked every state and the District for detailed voter registration data, but in Texas’s case it took an additional step: It asked to see Texas records that identify all voters with Hispanic surnames, newly released documents show.

In buying nearly 50 million records from the state with the nation’s second largest Hispanic population, a researcher for the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity checked a box on two Texas public voter data request forms explicitly asking for the “Hispanic surname flag notation,” to be included in information sent to the voting commission, according to copies of the signed and notarized state forms.
I can understand why campaigns themselves might want to identify Hispanic surnames to target their efforts, but why does the State of Texas even do that as part of their voter data feeds?
posted by zachlipton at 12:35 PM on January 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


The GOP talking point is that the Dems gained nothing because the standalone DACA vote was inevitably going to happen anyway, just like Trump is inevitably going to release his taxes, and Sean Hannity is inevitably going to waterboard himself for charity
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:36 PM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


The GOP talking point is that the Dems gained nothing because the standalone DACA vote was inevitably going to happen anyway, just like Trump is inevitably going to release his taxes, and Sean Hannity is inevitably going to waterboard himself for charity

Uh huh. Which is why it took a government shutdown for the Republicans to fix the CHIP program that expired back in September.

I hope Democrats take good notes of which media types swallow such an obviously bogus argument. Then again, considering that bogus arguments are all Republicans have had for going on two decades, that would seem to be basically their job.
posted by Gelatin at 12:41 PM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


I have no idea what to think about the possibility of dropping DACA to save CHIP and keep the government funded. We're trying to negotiate with terrorists holding the country hostage, and until Dems have an actual majority, I feel like the best thing we can do is minimize the collateral damage--and hell, government shutdowns are massive collateral damage.

I will say that I got an email the other day from Lloyd Doggett, my Blue Dog rep and a long-time resident of the Ways and Means Committee:
I remain in Washington working to achieve a bipartisan resolution to this reckless Trump shutdown. As always, I welcome your advice on this and other federal issues.

How we got here:

On May 2, Trump tweeted: “Our country needs good shutdown in September to fix this mess.” His Congressional allies have finally delivered on his self-created mess. After years of complaining about the budgetary process, “unified” Republican government failed to produce a federal budget. With none of the 12 appropriations bills necessary for federal operations approved by September 30, Republicans have kept the government open in spurts—through a series of short-term resolutions.

For more than three months, we Democrats have been objecting to this mismanagement and seeking to reach agreement on appropriations for the remainder of the current fiscal year. Republican failure to respond impairs planning for all federal efforts and adds significant, unnecessary costs for taxpayers. As even a Trump Pentagon spokesperson conceded Thursday, these resolutions are “wasteful and destructive” to our military.

Nor did Republicans prioritize the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which provides coverage to about 400,000 Texans, nor funding for community health centers upon which so many of these same children rely. Republicans permitted these authorizations to expire in September. Now they finally propose to renew one without the other.

Coinciding with these budgetary failures, Republican leaders have blocked any vote regarding the status of about 800,000 Dreamers, since Trump wrongly terminated their work permits on September 5. These are the young people, brought here as children, who have cleared a criminal background check, and many of whom have completed their studies and are contributing to our communities like the teacher, prosecutor, engineer, and nurse with whom I recently met.

Each day of inaction means more of these young people lose their authorizations. And this also creates a problem for employers, who don’t know whether their Dreamer employee can remain on the job. As 400 top business leaders recently urged, these “hardworking young people will lose their ability to work legally in this country, and every one of them will be at immediate risk of deportation. Our economy would lose $460.3 billion from the national GDP..." A solution is urgent, but anti-immigrant Republicans think that the longer they wait the better their ability to do as little as possible for the Dreamers while imposing more limitations on legal immigration and refugees.

Obstacles we must overcome:

Trump—he changes his position almost as quickly as he adds new tweets. This week Senator Schumer had the same experience with him as Senators Durbin and Graham—he agrees to one thing in private but after talking to his extremist advisors he reverses. As Schumer said, it’s like “negotiating with Jell-O.” And, since the Trump shutdown began, the President has convened no bipartisan meetings—shown no leadership whatsoever.

The self-imposed “majority of the majority” rule—Speaker Ryan refuses to permit a vote on any measure that is not first endorsed by a majority of the Republican caucus. This is the same rule that has denied any House vote on comprehensive immigration reform approved by a large bipartisan majority over four years ago, that delayed action on the Violence Against Women Act, previous hurricane relief, and many other measures. It means that as few as 28% of House Members can determine which issues the House can consider. Ryan fears dividing his Republican Caucus more than damaging our country.

Republican political advantage—they believe they can defeat moderate Democrats and protect faltering Republicans by falsely messaging that Democrats are defending illegal immigrants at the expense of Americans. Typical is Trump’s tweet that Democrats “just want illegal immigrants to pour into our nation unchecked” and the nonsense of his new Trump-Pence campaign site ad “Democrats Complicit in all Murders by Illegal Immigrants.”

Reopening the Government:

Another partisan, one-month resolution like the one the House adopted last Thursday, postponing action on the major issues, will only create another crisis next month. The best immediate solution is a resolution of only a few days, during which a public endorsement of specific action is obtained from Trump with immediate Congressional approval before he changes his mind. This is a grueling give-and-take process. Difficult concessions must be made in order to open the government and obtain action on our priorities.

Yes, Trump is unfit and Republicans are spewing a pack of lies, but unfortunately he remains President and arithmetic is on their side. I don’t believe in giving in, but I do believe in moving forward. I hope we can get there this week; we cannot get there by ourselves, and the path forward remains uncertain.
The winds are not looking good for Democrats. I trust Doggett's political instincts, and this is a letter that tells me just how frustrated and tired the Dems in the House must be right now; no one knows what hard choice to make in order to keep these terrorists from gutting the nation for their own shits and giggles.

The only thing I can think to do, as engaged and active people, is speak with any bullhorn we can grab. Tell people you know what immigrating to this country is really like, if you try to do it legally. Tell people what the realistic situation is--I know I've informed a lot of people talking about my partner. Write letters to the editor of the local paper about what DACA immigrants really are like. Publicize what is going to be lost because Republicans won't play ball. Help Dems spin this shit, any way you can, and try to build up some momentum even in this shitty time of low morale. I've talked before about how unbelievably shitty and disposable government shutdowns make me feel--and to be clear, I'm a state employee, so I'm unaffected personally right now, but just about every scientist I know knows someone whose salary comes directly from federal money at their jobs. Talk about that.

I just got an email from my department via our local radio station, which wants to know if anyone in our department had research impacted by the shutdown, and might we be willing to talk to them? There are more papers that want to hear about these stories than you might expect--and probably more radio stations and more local television stations than you might think. And those are the outlets who pass the news up to the big AP outlets that wind up fanning news nationwide. Go out and tell people what you think about this bullshit, and take care to be very clear about whose fault it actually is. Because goddamn, whether or not Dems drop DACA to get the federal government funded, this situation is not their fault at the roots. We all know whose fault it is, and it's ludicrous to blame the people faced with an impossible choice for making it instead of blaming the supervillains who set up the choice in the first place.
posted by sciatrix at 12:44 PM on January 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


If the Dems don't have a killer commercial featuring a supercut of every Trump and McConnell/Ryan lie on the Dreamers ready to start playing non-stop everywhere on Feb 7, they can fuck right off.

LOL. That would require the Dems to have a promotion/marketing arm that can pull its head out of its ass long enough to produce one.
posted by Thorzdad at 12:45 PM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Fuckin Schumer™
posted by j_curiouser at 12:45 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


This isn't terribly deep analysis, but it's sort-of interesting to take a look at -- which states are most and least affected by a shutdown. You'll note Florida and Wisconsin in the bottom half, and Ohio and Michigan in the bottom five. (Actually what I'm getting from this map is, boy does the Midwest not get our fair share of federal dollars!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:51 PM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


It can't be opacity thinning their ranks; it's got to be either corruption or a sullen lack of interest.

Everybody has some interaction with the tax system, which is why the middle-class version of the tax debate devolves to something like "we need to cut out all the loopholes and deductions apart from the ones I personally take advantage of." That's not the case with immigration.

You can get explainers about DACA eligibility criteria or family-reunification tiers and national quotas from somewhere wonkish like Vox, but the public debate on immigration usually takes the form of profoundly ignorant people saying "well, I don't believe that and neither do the American people" even when confronted with facts, and there's not much way past that. Americans tend to believe in an imaginary immigration system that's part Hollywood, part talk radio, and part what they make up in their own heads because they never face situations that would require correcting themselves. I've seen this at town halls with elected officials and in group interactions where I've been natural-born-citizensplained, and it always gets dumbed-down the closer it gets to an election.
posted by holgate at 12:52 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


There’s a Surprise in the Government Funding Bill: More Tax Cuts, Margot Sanger-Katz and Jim Tankersley, NYT
The deal struck by Democrats and Republicans on Monday to end a brief government shutdown contains $31 billion in tax cuts, including a temporary delay in implementing three health care-related taxes.

Those delays, which enjoy varying degrees of bipartisan support, are not offset by any spending cuts or tax increases, and thus will add to a federal budget deficit that is already projected to increase rapidly as last year’s mammoth new tax law takes effect...

The health care taxes were all created as part of the Affordable Care Act, where they were designed to offset the cost of expanding insurance coverage to low- and middle-income Americans. But many of them, such as a tax on medical devices, have remained unpopular, and their implementation has been postponed before.

Those delays have been preferable to lawmakers than eliminating the taxes entirely, given a total repeal would have added an estimated $310 billion to federal budget deficits over the next decade...

The bill to end the shutdown, which funds government operations through Feb. 8 and also includes a six-year reauthorization of the Children’s Health Insurance Program, did not move through budget reconciliation, the parliamentary procedure that circumvents filibusters in the Senate. That allowed Republican leaders to include the delays in the health insurance taxes without worrying about their fiscal cost, a move that drew few objections from Democrats.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 12:56 PM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


I mean...Democrats don’t control a single branch of government. It’s not clear to me why people are assigning responsibility to them.


"You don’t have any other society where the educated classes are so effectively indoctrinated and controlled by a subtle propaganda system – a private system including media, intellectual opinion forming magazines and the participation of the most highly educated sections of the population. Such people ought to be referred to as “Commissars” – for that is what their essential function is – to set up and maintain a system of doctrines and beliefs which will undermine independent thought and prevent a proper understanding and analysis of national and global institutions, issues, and policies"

Noam Chomsky - Linguistic Theory, Syntax, Semantics, Philosophy of Language
posted by petebest at 12:57 PM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


zachlipton: from Yonah Freemark:

No funding figures are attached to this document. But we should assume that they're going to ask for $200 billion in grants over ten years, which is what has previously been discussed. It would, as we've heard, prioritize projects associated with new, non-federal revenue. This would account for 70% of the scoring criteria for new projects. This means, essentially, that projects without new local/state funding couldn't be supported by feds. This makes sense as the whole framing of the Trump proposal has been that it is incentivizing "$1 trillion" in spending. This is only possible if other, non-federal, sources of funding become available.


New, non-federal revenue is great for states that have significant revenue streams that are non-federal, which are likely to also have high population densities, where tolling is viable. For reference, Washington Post has a map of how much each state relies on the Feds for revenue (2015), and here's a 2012 map of where half of the US population lived (zoomable map), i.e. major metro areas, and finally, here's the current National Highway System (another zoomable map, with a LOT more info to toggle on and off -- thank goodness the gov't shutdown didn't disable government websites).

This means that there's a lot of open space with low population levels between those major city centers, and if you want to put any stock in the American Society of Civil Engineer's infrastructure report card,* there's $2 trillion in unfunded needs across the 16 categories through 2025, and public-private partnerships aren't likely to help anyone except those in urban centers.

And remember: public-private infrastructure investments aren't free, we all pay in decreased future taxes, often for many times the value of the infrastructure, spanning that tax hit for years. Pair such "investment incentives" with those paid to Amazon and so many other companies to get jobs in a certain area, billions in taxpayer funds (or potential funds) are handed over to private companies.

*You can, but remember that this is engineers listing the total price of repairs, not a prioritized list of critical deficiencies to minor improvements from civil engineers, who get paid to design infrastructure improvements and not allocating public funds.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:13 PM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


I'm pretty nonplussed by the outcome but also resigned to the fact that this was about all the Dems were going to get. In exchange for a pretty big PR hit and pissing off a lot of their base, Schumer got something passed that had bipartisan support.

Mind, it was something GOOD. And something that the Repubs were intentionally dragging their feet on for months. And something that was causing measurable harm by not being passed and was going to cause a lot more harm by not being passed. But "we've been trying to vote for this for months but the GOP wouldn't put it up for a vote" was not screamed from every rooftop, as it should have been. Letting the Repubs seize some high ground and claim that THEY wanted to fund kids' health insurance but WE would rather shut the government down was ridiculous and a gamesmanship victory for Yertle.

But I don't like where we're headed. Yertle and Ryan will find a different hostage in three weeks because of course they will. Yertle will hem and haw about why he can't put a clean DACA bill on the floor because of course he will. Even if, mirabile dictu, a clean DACA bill gets a Senate vote (it won't) and passes, Ryan will let it die because of course he will. He will put up some variation of the HFC's Make America White Again 'reform' bill because of course he will. And we'll be that much closer to the debt ceiling fight and that much closer to all those Dreamers being upended and we'll have a grand old time watching Schumer squirm then as to why what Mark Meadows and Stephen Miller want isn't Sound Immigration Reform.

Meh. If kids can go to the doctor more easily, that's good, but no one on our side should exit smiling.
posted by delfin at 1:26 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]




Legal weed in Vermont, yo: Governor Phil Scott has signed H. 511, An act relating to eliminating penalties for possession of limited amounts of marijuana by adults 21 years of age or older, into law.
posted by peeedro at 1:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


here's my take on it:
The GOP has one less hostage
The left base is riled up
Kelly and Miller have been depicted as running the show, creating the opportunity for these zealots to lose their power as they become targets of Trump's ire
We have three weeks to get a lot of people power organized against senators who might cave next time around

I mean I'm not saying praise Schumer or anything like that, but basically I'd like to Jeff-Goldblum-fly vomit over the whole situation, because Christ, I don't know how you pull a victory we'd feel like marching in the streets about with this cast of characters.
posted by angrycat at 1:34 PM on January 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


Democrats must not let the public forget it was the Republicans who forced the choice between funding CHIP and a DACA fix, because the Republicans didn't really want to do either -- obviously, because they didn't.
posted by Gelatin at 1:38 PM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


The Senate passed the CR 81-18 (vote tracker). The House is expected to take it up in an hour or two.

And good news. @elwasson: Federal workers who were furloughed over the weekend and today will get paid due to "enrollment correction" amendment added to Senate spending bill
posted by zachlipton at 1:39 PM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Democrats don’t control a single branch of government. It’s not clear to me why people are assigning responsibility to them.

Trump announced his administration would be full of "so much winning" and we'd all have lower taxes and better jobs and freedom from crime.

This has not happened.

The Republicans are all voting according to Trump's agenda.

Democrats are not. Ergo, the lack of winning is their fault.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:40 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Senate passed the CR 81-18 (vote tracker). The House is expected to take it up in an hour or two.

Damn Sens. Warren and Markey. They keep doing what I want so I can't call them up and yell at them. I have to keep sending their staff muffin baskets as thank you gifts and DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH THEY COST?!? It's a lot more expensive than dialing a number and yelling at a staffer, I'll tell you that.
posted by Talez at 1:46 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Montana Governor Signs Order to Force Net Neutrality, Cecilia Kang, NYT
Through an executive order, Gov. Steve Bullock declared on Monday that any internet service provider with a state government contract cannot block or charge more for faster delivery of websites, two core aspects of net neutrality, to any customer in the state.

Many major landline and mobile broadband providers, including Charter, CenturyLink, AT&T and Verizon, hold government contracts in the state. The new requirements apply to new and renewed contracts signed after July 1, 2018.

The action, the first of its kind by a governor, could face legal challenges.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 1:56 PM on January 22, 2018 [65 favorites]


It asked to see Texas records that identify all voters with Hispanic surnames, newly released documents show.

As a long-time Arizona resident who meets a ton of new people each year for work, I scoffed. From where I'm sitting it's pretty clear you can't assume anything, including race, about who you're going to meet based on them having a "Hispanic" surname.
posted by Squeak Attack at 1:59 PM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


Lauren Fox and Daniella Diaz:, CNN: Susan Collins had senators in bipartisan meetings use talking stick

One Republican senator describing the incident told CNN the stick was successful, but on one occasion, one of the other senators was speaking while another asked a question and then turned with another quick, longer, louder question. The member who was holding the stick "forcefully delivered" the stick across the room -- but it missed its mark and caused damage to a shelf in Collins' office. A glass elephant sitting on a shelf owned by Collins became the casualty, with the stick chipping it a little bit. "There were no injuries, there were a couple close calls but everything worked out fine," another Republican senator said about the talking stick and the elephant incident.
[REAL]

Wake me up when John Cornyn wrests the conch from Lindsey Graham as the Tea Party Caucus chants before an impaled pig's head
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:10 PM on January 22, 2018 [72 favorites]


A glass elephant sitting on a shelf owned by Collins became the casualty, with the stick chipping it a little bit.

Nominated for Metaphor of the Year. It's still pretty early though...
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:15 PM on January 22, 2018 [52 favorites]


One thing I don't understand with the DEMOCRATS CAVED FOR NOTHING narrative; what did you guys see as the positive end game here? DACA was clearly never going to happen in this CR. So if the Ds were supposed to hold out for that this shutdown would have lasted forever.

With this deal Democrats get CHIP off the table; Rs cannot use it for leverage next time. They only give a 3 week CR which means that they can shut it down again in 3 weeks if they have to. If McConnell gives a vote it passes and the pressure switches to the House and they take the blame for failure on immigration. If McConnell doesn't give a vote he is revealed as a lying liar (I hear your objections but breaking a promise to DEMOCRATS is different than breaking a promise to other Republicans, who likely never believed his promise in the first place and just used it as a fig leaf) and Ds shut it down again and blame McConnel.

Keeping the government shut down forever which is what waiting for a clean DACA bill would mean was never on the table.
posted by Justinian at 2:16 PM on January 22, 2018 [35 favorites]


McConnell just broke his promise to Flake and Collins in the last couple weeks, and they did nothing. Breaking promises to Republicans isn't some red line, because they will never do anything to retaliate against his repeated betrayals.

If they weren't going to hold a firmer line, they shouldn't have even forced the shutdown. They should've admitted they weren't willing to use the leverage they have, and admitted they can't save DACA. Use the resulting anger at the mass deportations to retake the House and roll back the damage. Throwing a half-hearted stunt where you get rolled is the worst of all worlds.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:25 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Use the resulting anger at the mass deportations

Immigration courts are already working at 100% capacity; failing to fix DACA will not result in "mass deportations" on any identifiable scale. We cannot deport more people than we are already deporting.
posted by 0xFCAF at 2:27 PM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


"There were no injuries, there were a couple close calls but everything worked out fine," another Republican senator said about the talking stick and the elephant incident.

This is how you know it was a Republican who threw it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:28 PM on January 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


We cannot deport more people than we are already deporting.

No, but we can put them in improvised holding facilities that stay in place and grow until they become something we currently mostly know from black and white photographs and the testimony of survivors.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:28 PM on January 22, 2018 [60 favorites]


> Keeping the government shut down forever which is what waiting for a clean DACA bill would mean was never on the table.

Early indicators were that the shutdown was being blamed on the GOP, and as bad as Dems have been at messaging in the past, they really seem to have upped their game. My counterfactual was that they keep the shutdown going for a while. They'd take a hit among some independents, but as we saw with the GOP in 2013-2014, opinion polls during the shutdown don't correlate with electoral results after the shutdown. Meanwhile, if the public mood still reflects the GOP's brand as the party of shutdowns, pressure mounts for the GOP to accept restoration of DACA, over the objections of the knuckledragger caucus.

If you don't think the shutdown could have been used as continued leverage to restore DACA, you disagree with Harris, Warren, Gillibrand, and the rest of the Dems who voted against the CR. I trust them more on policy and political acumen grounds than I do the collection of Senators who are willing to hand the keys over to people like McConnel, Collins, and Manchin to negotiate a deal.

I don't know that it would have worked, but I think it was worth trying for more than one working day, at least.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:31 PM on January 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


One thing I don't understand with the DEMOCRATS CAVED FOR NOTHING narrative; what did you guys see as the positive end game here? DACA was clearly never going to happen in this CR. So if the Ds were supposed to hold out for that this shutdown would have lasted forever.

Meanwhile, even-the-liberal-NPR led its 5 o'clock news with a Tom Cotton quote saying the Democrats were holding government hostage in order to provide amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Of course they did not provide the context that Cotton was one of the immigration hardliners who helped blow up Shumer's deal with Trump.

We can rightly be upset for Senate Democrats not coming thru for the DREAMers, but with the media blatantly adopting Republican framing -- yet again -- Democrats were fighting a headwind.

Republicans' decades-long investment in the myth of the "liberal media" has paid many dividends, including today's embarrassing performance by NPR. Democrats need to understand the media is not their friend, and act accordingly.
posted by Gelatin at 2:32 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


Also, they didn't even hold out long enough to determine who "won" the shutdown "fight" in the court of public opinion. Maybe they had the winning arguments, but we don't know. They couldn't even make a coherent case for why they were shutting it down. Many people in this thread have set out better arguments than we heard from any Democratic leaders, and we certainly didn't see any inkling of a coherent line as a party. If you're going to fold before even making your case - why? What was the point?

They did this because they felt like they were pushed into it, but without any planning or message or conviction - in the true Democratic Party tradition.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


so I'm a little unclear was somebody clumsily passing the stick or using it like a javelin at the head of the person who interrupted them
posted by angrycat at 2:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


> Republicans' decades-long investment in the myth of the "liberal media" has paid many dividends, including today's embarrassing performance by NPR. Democrats need to understand the media is not their friend, and act accordingly.

The path to fixing the broken media ecosystem is not around, but through.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


NYT, Trump Slaps Steep Tariffs on Imported Washing Machines and Solar Products
For the solar industry, the president approved tariffs for the next four years. A tariff of 30 percent will be levied on imported modules and cells in the first year. That will fall to 25 percent in the second year, 20 percent in the third year and 15 percent in the fourth year. In each of the four years, the first 2.5 gigawatts of imported solar cells will be exempted from the tariff.

For imported washing machines, the president approved a combined tariff and quota for the next three years. In the first year, the first 1.2 million washing machines that are imported will face a tariff of 20 percent, while all subsequent imports will have a tariff of 50 percent.
I, for one, am pleased Trump is making good on his promise from campaign rallies: "What are we going to have? MORE EXPENSIVE SOLAR PANELS AND WASHING MACHINES. Who's going to pay for them? AMERICAN CONSUMERS."
posted by zachlipton at 2:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [57 favorites]


I have to keep sending their staff muffin baskets as thank you gifts and DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH THEY COST

Just so you know, from friends that interned at a similar rep's office, getting perishable foods that are worth more than $50 or whatever the gift cap was led to a big all-around headache and I think they often ended up being thrown out to avoid the appearance of impropriety (nonperishables would be returned, I think, but I'd hazard a guess that nobody wants a bunch of moldy Harry and David pears from their senator). So in the slight chance you were were serious on the muffin baskets...be careful!
posted by mosst at 2:36 PM on January 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


the first 2.5 gigawatts of imported solar cells will be exempted from the tariff. ... In the first year, the first 1.2 million washing machines that are imported will face a tariff of 20 percent, while all subsequent imports will have a tariff of 50 percent.

For a sense of scale: The United States imported 12.77 gigawatts of panels in 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Makini Brice Hyunjoo Jin at Reuters report an LG spokesman saying that "combined U.S. sales by LG and Samsung would reach about 2.5 million". So those tariffs will have a significant impact on imports.
posted by jedicus at 2:41 PM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Maybe send a basket with a Starbuck's* gift card, and a note to please use it on a day when the team would like some snacks?

* Or known local place of similar type.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:42 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


So all washing machines are going to now cost 20 to 50% more? Who makes a non imported washing machine?
posted by Lord_Pall at 2:53 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


One thing I don't understand with the DEMOCRATS CAVED FOR NOTHING narrative; what did you guys see as the positive end game here? DACA was clearly never going to happen in this CR. So if the Ds were supposed to hold out for that this shutdown would have lasted forever.

Scenario a) The six year CHIP funding was the final deal before the shutdown. Schumer gets up and says "ok, we got CHIP, sorry dreamers no DACA this time around".

Scenario b) The six year CHIP funding was the final deal before the shutdown. Schumer shuts down the government for three days. Schumer gets up and says "ok, we got CHIP, sorry dreamers no DACA this time around".

What is the difference in this scenario? If you said Schumer shut down the government for three days for absolutely no reason you're 100% right.

Why even have a shutdown if you're just going to cave and not play hardball? Schumer needed to pull Dent into the conversation to work around Meadows's vice like grip on Ryan's nuts, get an up/down vote on the Dream Act in the Senate as part of the deal and have the whole lot executed before the CR gets cloture.

I mean if you're not going to do that, why even bother? Because you're big bad Democrats ready with your blue jeans and white crew neck T-shirts to be rebels without a clue cause? Schumer completely fucked this all up.
posted by Talez at 2:57 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Who makes a non imported washing machine?

something something trump money laundering something
posted by Barack Spinoza at 2:57 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


> What is the difference in this scenario?

You're leaving out McConnell's commitment to doing something about DACA, also redeemable at your local McDonalds for a medium fries with purchase of a quarter pounder, medium fries, and a soft drink.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:59 PM on January 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


You're leaving out McConnell's commitment to doing something about DACA, also redeemable at your local McDonalds for a medium fries with purchase of a quarter pounder, medium fries, and a soft drink.

I believe the correct pop culture allegory in this case is gumballs and Bennigans coupons.
posted by Talez at 3:01 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


What is the difference in this scenario? If you said Schumer shut down the government for three days for absolutely no reason you're 100% right.

Not exactly. They got a short term CR. GOP wanted CHIP + a long term CR, which would mean no reason to ever bring DACA to the floor. So in 3 weeks the same fight has to happen again, only this time the GOP can't put CHIP in jeopardy. If DACA doesn't get a vote, Schumer can filibuster the CR again on Feb. 8th. It seems like the shutdown worked.
posted by dis_integration at 3:05 PM on January 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


They got one week off the four week CR.

Three days of shutdown for one week off the CR.
posted by Talez at 3:07 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


I guess, basically, we’ll know if it worked in three weeks. Right now, we can keep going around and around harping on whether it was a long-term net gain or a net loss, but really, only time will tell.

(Except for those 100+ Dreamers that will lose their DACA status every day over the next three weeks. Those 2000 human beings are probably screwed no matter how this ends.)
posted by darkstar at 3:12 PM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


If I had a nickel for every time someone told me Democrats were winning at 12-dimensional chess when they were really just losing at 2-dimensional chess, I could pay for a public option in the ACA.
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:13 PM on January 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


Fox News: DEMS BLINK—Team Schumer caves on filibuster, paving way for end to government shutdown

Breitbart: SCHUMER CHUCKS UP! AMNESTY SHUTDOWN OVER — SURRENDER:DEMOCRATS GET NOTHING


What the heck would you expect them to say? “Dems Gain CHIP Funding, Elicit McConnell Promise on ‘Dreamers’ Legislation”?
posted by GrammarMoses at 3:14 PM on January 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


"Democrats spend own political capital to set up Trump for 'bipartisan' victories on CHIP and DACA"
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:16 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


For the last time, the final Republican deal before the shutdown was six years of CHIP and a four week CR.

The final deal to reopen the government was six years of CHIP and a three week CR.

Schumer didn't engage in a valiant stand shutting down the government for kid's healthcare. It was already part of the freaking deal to kick DACA down the road another month. He got literally nothing.
posted by Talez at 3:16 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Also, FWIW, I don’t think the Democrats have been an unalloyed mess. Schumer and the Ds showed very tight coordination and team discipline in last year’s GOP attempt to repeal the ACA. Serious credit where it’s due, there.
posted by darkstar at 3:17 PM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Something I'm curious about here -- back when Republicans were dragging their feet on CHIP, what was their public excuse? How in the world did they spin it?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:19 PM on January 22, 2018


"Democrats spend own political capital to set up Trump for 'bipartisan' victories on CHIP and DACA"

Bipartisan victories? Trump didn't do anything and Schumer blinked. Dealmaker in chief doesn't offer a damn thing and Cryin' Chuck chickens out. Those are the right wing optics right now.
posted by Talez at 3:21 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Something I'm curious about here -- back when Republicans were dragging their feet on CHIP, what was their public excuse? How in the world did they spin it?

Complain that “there’s not enough money for it anymore,” and then vote for a $1.5 trillion tax cut.
posted by darkstar at 3:22 PM on January 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


Who makes a non imported washing machine?

Whirlpool. This is basically Whirlpool vs Samsung and LG, and both Korean manufacturers have announced plans to build facilities, in Tennessee and South Carolina. But the tariffs may reduce the total investment, and if South Korea gets bombed to bits, that probably causes problems with the supply chain.
posted by holgate at 3:23 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Mod note: Gonna suggest that people who have made their point repeatedly give it a break for a while; Talez you have 3x as many comments as anyone else in this thread today. Let's work back in the direction of fewer and higher-signal comments now that the frenzy of the afternoon is over.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 3:24 PM on January 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


darkstar: Complain that “there’s not enough money for it anymore,” and then vote for a $1.5 trillion tax cut.

All right, and.. that's it? I really hate to be one of the "Dems are bad messengers" people because I think their messaging has improved substantially. So I just have to understand, in general, why Republicans seemed to "get away" with their CHIP hypocrisy, long enough that they could audaciously accuse Democrats of being the bad guys on the subject.

Like, on the floors of Congress when the shutdown was looming on Friday, I'm sure many a Dem, confronted with GOP crocodile tears, brought up GOP foot-dragging on the subject. What the heck have Republicans said in response? "There wasn't enough money a few months ago and you know it! We had to wait for the incredible quadrillion-dollar stimulus of the tax bill before CHIP was affordable again!"
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:41 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Brian Buetler: Democrats Are Allowing Republicans To Have It both Ways on the Dreamers
This is total nonsense. Important legislation is often coordinated at the leadership level in both chambers of Congress, and even with the input of the president. When McConnell says, as he did on the Senate floor Monday, that it is “my intention to take up legislation here in the Senate that would address DACA,” he is saying both that he reserves the right to renege on the agreement, and that even if a bipartisan bill passes the Senate, he’ll happily allow Paul Ryan let the House Freedom Caucus kill it. This allows Republicans to leave unresolved the tension between their stated sympathy for Dreamers and their well-established penchant for abusing them.

An end to the impasse over funding the government that doesn’t resolve at least one of these two basic problems—Trump’s weakness or Ryan’s cowardice—is one that leaves the immigration dynamic unchanged. It creates a process that is likely to sputter and allows Republicans to avoid taking an unambiguous position on whether the Dreamers should be allowed to stay or not.

posted by T.D. Strange at 3:42 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


If you don't think the shutdown could have been used as continued leverage to restore DACA, you disagree with Harris, Warren, Gillibrand, and the rest of the Dems who voted against the CR

Look at the list of names. Those are the 2020 hopefuls. They didn't vote against the CR because they thought the shutdown could have successfully been used to restore DACA, they voted against the CR because to do otherwise would have been a huge black mark against their 2020 ambitions since it would have pissed off the base.

Their votes were obviously sanctioned by leadership. Or at least not in defiance of it.
posted by Justinian at 3:45 PM on January 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


> @JakeCorman and @senatorscarnati are outraged at court decision throwing out congressional map and they hope to go for a stay from the U.S. Supreme Court by week's end.

Interestingly, the Reuters report by Joseph Ax, Richard Chang, and James Dalgliesh says this:
The Pennsylvania lawsuit, filed by the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania, relied on the state constitution, which means the court’s decision cannot be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania's attorney argues, “It’s well established that the United States Supreme Court does not review decisions of state force that exclusively construe state law”, but Sen. Corman counters, "It impacts the Congressional districts which then puts it into federal jurisdiction." And further, "The argument is that these are impacting a federal election and the U.S. Constitution specifically outlines that the legislature not the courts is to draw the maps. The courts are inserting themselves into the process."

Does this interpretation of the separation of powers hold water, or is it another case of the Republicans' attitude of "states rights for me, but not for thee"?
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:47 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I think it means they don't like the decision and are throwing everything they can think of against the wall to see what gets popular support as a way forward, i.e. they aren't done whining, they just need to focus group their tone.
posted by rhizome at 3:51 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Some analysis arguing essentially the same thing as I am, which of course means correctly:

Ezra Klein: Democrats didn’t cave on the shutdown. Democrats are funding CHIP for six years and reopening the government without losing their shutdown leverage.

Matt Fuller: The Case For The Democratic ‘Cave’. It’s not really a cave if you’re just continuing the fight.
posted by Justinian at 3:54 PM on January 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


Regardless of where things go in the next few weeks, I think it would be a very healthy and motivational thing if, the next time they hold townhalls (which looks to be the week of Feb 19, how convenient), our Democratic Senators and Reps get a substantial serving of what Republican Congressdroids experienced at their townhalls over the past year.

Nothing like a little Vitamin Base to stiffen the backbone.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:00 PM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


All right, and.. that's it? I really hate to be one of the "Dems are bad messengers" people because I think their messaging has improved substantially. So I just have to understand, in general, why Republicans seemed to "get away" with their CHIP hypocrisy, long enough that they could audaciously accuse Democrats of being the bad guys on the subject.

I think the big problem, as others have pointed out, is that the "liberal" media really isn't. I'm talking about the New York Times, CNN, etc. here, not so much Vox/Mother Jones/other in-depth publications, but stuff that most people are going to read every day. Whether it's both-sides-ism, fear of Liberal Cooties, pressure from owners, advertisers and other bigwigs, any and all of the above, the news sites that most people read are not liberal and don't do Democratic messaging well. Democrats can craft the perfect message, but if the mainstream media won't amplify it, you can't blame the Dems for being "bad with messaging."

Another thing is that the Democrats' base doesn't lend itself to the kind of simplistic messaging that Republicans' does. The GOP can throw red meat to their base, easy-peasy: "GUNS!" "UNBORN BAYBEES!" "IMMIGRANTS BAD BROWN PEOPLE BAD!" "VOTE FOR US AND YOU'LL GET YOUR LILY-WHITE PATRIARCHAL 1950s BACK!" "WHAAARGARBL!" And the base eats it up and goes out to vote. Our voters don't work that way. We're more diverse and less susceptible to simplistic messaging, and, unfortunately, are less likely to see voting as a duty, more likely to stay home and pout if candidates aren't perfect, and less motivated in the midterm elections.

If we want shiny spines on our Democratic Congress, we need to manifest the blue wave in November. What do we do? Vote! When do we do it? November! (And for those of us lucky people with Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, etc. as our Senators, we donate, do Postcards to Voters, phone bank, and whatever else we feel comfortable with.)
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:02 PM on January 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


There's way too much sports fan and consumer mentality in political discussion.
This isn't a game.
We are turning into a fascist dictatorship. The Democrats have very little power. There's no "one weird trick" or surprise play that they could be pulling. It won't get better if they just believed more, or really wanted it, or go out and try and win one for the Gipper. All they can do is try and stop the bleeding.
Not supporting Dems is in no way going to make things better. It's not like boycotting a company you don't like. Government isn't a business.
posted by bongo_x at 4:04 PM on January 22, 2018 [93 favorites]


My fear is that the pressure on Republicans to show that they're doing something on DACA in the next few weeks will lead them down the path of perusing some awful policies that restrict legal immigration.

Consider the Goodlatte bill. It offers current DACA recipients (excluding even those eligible but not current) protection from deportation, but no citizenship or permanent residency and nothing for their parents. In exchange, it includes what Cato calls (hey, staunch free market libertarians are useful, to some extent, when it comes to immigration!) House GOP Proposes Largest Restriction on Legal Immigrants Since the 1920s. For all that Republicans scream about how people need to "wait in line" to become legal immigrants, the bill would kick millions of people out of "line" who have been waiting for years. Overall, legal immigration would be cut 38-43%. It also criminalizes being in the US illegally and would straight up turn Dreamers into criminals if they're not in school or making enough money.

So that's all a right parade of horribles, which doesn't even do much for Dreamers, and it's so extreme that it has no chance of getting anything close to 50 votes in the Senate. But it's exactly the kind of thing Stephen Miller can get behind. And what I worry is that Republicans will press forward with that, call it "the DACA bill," and the media will do its usual dance of both sidesing it. It will look something like: "on the one hand, the White House and Republicans are pressing for the Securing America’s Future Act, which restores DACA and institutes new immigration reforms. On the other hand, Democrats have balked at the proposal, preferring the Durbin-Graham bill, which offers a pathway to citizenship."

It's one thing to have the discussion of how much of the wall are Democrats willing to eat in order to protect Dreamers, especially since plenty of Republicans think the wall is stupid too. It's quite another to ask how much of Stephen Miller's agenda they're willing to swallow to make a deal. And lost in all this will be the reminder that this is a crisis entirely of Trump's own making because he's the one who cancelled DACA, just as Congressional Republicans engineered a crisis by refusing to fund CHIP for months.

The worst-case scenario here is that increased pressure to act on immigration brings a greater drive to advance white supremacist immigration policy. Even if that stuff isn't going to pass in its entirety, it will completely jam up the debate and will be used to argue that Democrats won't accept a deal to protect Dreamers.
posted by zachlipton at 4:12 PM on January 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


Resolving CHIP without resolving DACA is bad because CHIP was giving weak Dems cover to support the filibuster. Without CHIP, these people don't have a counter to Republican claims that they're shutting down the government over illegal immigrants, and they won't be able to sustain a filibuster. That's why this is bad. It's not winning back a hostage from the Republicans so much as it's leaving the Republicans with hostages our side won't fight to defend. I think DACA is doomed and we are getting very close to "where can we hide people from ICE" territory.
posted by gerryblog at 4:16 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


This Is How You Do It, Virginia Edition: Virginia’s only black statewide officeholder bows out of Stonewall Jackson tribute
Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, Virginia’s first black statewide elected official in a generation, slipped off the dais in the state Senate on Monday to quietly protest a tribute to Confederate Gen. Thomas J. “Stonewall” Jackson.

After Sen. Emmett W. Hanger Jr. (R-Augusta) called on the Senate to adjourn for the day in honor of Jackson, whose birthday was Sunday, Fairfax (D) moved from his spot as presiding officer to a bench normally occupied by Senate pages. Sen. Stephen D. Newman (R-Bedford), the Senate pro tempore, stepped up in place of Fairfax.

Fairfax’s protest was so low-key that some senators missed it, or thought Fairfax had just wanted to rest his feet for a few moments.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:19 PM on January 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


It’s not really a cave if you’re just continuing the fight.

I know it risks repetitiveness, but: I truly cannot even remember the number of times in my voting life I have heard this very phrase as the Democratic strategy narrative. Whether or not this take-CHIP-and-punt strategy works in Congress (and I'm sceptical), it's really not likely to play well in the media. At all. I know there was little space for a better play, and I know the media is not a friendly place to launch a message or to get that message any traction... but jeez, 'it looks like a cave but we swear THIS TIME IT IS NOT A CAVE REALLY SRSLY IT'S NOT' is... really not filling me with much confidence, here. 'Continuing the fight' better not end up looking like 'well it's not THAT much money towards the wall and we're not LITERALLY building interment camps or if we are at least we're not privatising them and giving the contracts to friends of Zinke's'
posted by halation at 4:20 PM on January 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Devin Nunes Will Do Anything to Protect Donald Trump (Josh Marshall | TPM)
We are on genuinely untrodden territory with a faction of House Republicans working to discredit federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies because they are investigating the President and finding damning information about him and his 2016 campaign. As you’ve likely heard, Rep. Devin Nunes, Chairman of the House intel committee had his staff write this “memo” which allegedly presents evidence of intelligence and law enforcement wrongdoing during the 2016 presidential campaign – basically “deep state” plotting against candidate Donald Trump.

Over the last week there’s been a huge campaign on the right to “release the memo”. That campaign has also been supported by Russian intelligence backed social media accounts. All of this stems from and began with Mike Flynn’s efforts to snoop on the investigators probing his actions during the 2016 campaign which Flynn began as soon as he got into the White House almost exactly one year ago. This is the story of the “review” conducted by Flynn protege Ezra Cohen-Watnick and the whole “un-masking” charade from earlier in the year. Devin Nunes was the Hill leader who made common cause with Flynn and Cohen-Watnick and got himself temporarily knocked off the Russia investigation for his shenanigans. Now he’s back with this. It’s simply a continuation of the un-masking nonsense.

Now we learn that Nunes, after circulating the classified “memo” to the entire House of Representatives, has refused to allow the FBI itself to see the document. CNN just reported this a few moments ago and that comes after a report of the same yesterday from The Daily Beast. Keep in mind, the FBI in its counter-intelligence capacity is the organization being accused in the memo. Nunes is clearly a clown and willing to subvert the rule of law to defend a lawless President. What is striking is that the entire House GOP and, critically, House Speaker Paul Ryan is going along with it.

The FBI of course needs deep scrutiny and has a history of various misdeeds. But there’s simply no evidence of any misdeeds in this case other than the crime of helping to uncover facts about the Trump campaign’s collusion with Russian intelligence operatives during the 2016 campaign. It’s amazing that this is happening.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:32 PM on January 22, 2018 [46 favorites]


Look at the list of names. Those are the 2020 hopefuls. They didn't vote against the CR because they thought the shutdown could have successfully been used to restore DACA, they voted against the CR because to do otherwise would have been a huge black mark against their 2020 ambitions since it would have pissed off the base.

But how can a Yea vote be a black mark, and why would it anger anyone, when it so clearly represents the best path to preserving both DACA and CHIP while keeping the wheels of government in motion?
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 4:51 PM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Scoop: FBI director threatened to resign amid Trump, Sessions pressure

Does what it says on the tin. Axios is reporting that Wray has protected McCabe by threatening to resign if McCabe was removed. Losing a second FBI director would look... bad.
posted by Justinian at 4:58 PM on January 22, 2018 [37 favorites]


New, non-federal revenue is great for states that have significant revenue streams that are non-federal, which are likely to also have high population densities, where tolling is viable.

Or, legal (and taxed) weed.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:04 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]






I've got the Chair of the RNC all over my Facebook feed right now shouting about what a loser Schumer is for caving without getting anything at all, and calling him the "Art of the Fail" etc., so that's how.

He's surely wrong about that, but certainly if all those people voted for the continuing resolution, and then, through the expected five-dimensional jujitsu, CHIP and DACA were saved, then wouldn't it be easy for them to justify a powerful strategic vote to gain leverage over the majority party?
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 5:31 PM on January 22, 2018


> Look at the list of names. Those are the 2020 hopefuls.

Sure, along with 15 of their friends, many of whom are not 2020 hopefuls. My point in selecting them was not for their status as potential 2020 Presidential candidates, but as respected progressives in good standing in the party. Pat Leahy, Maize Hirono, Ed Markey, Feinstein... none of them are running.

I think the hopefuls in the group actually believe that continuing the shutdown was good politics that would lead to a better policy outcome. That it's also good Presidential politics is not an indictment of their vote.
posted by tonycpsu at 5:33 PM on January 22, 2018


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the "promise" the Dems extracted for a vote after the next CR/budget passes? How is that leverage?
posted by dirigibleman at 5:57 PM on January 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


That is correct, and I’m not sure why no one seems to recognize that.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:59 PM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Nunes is clearly a clown and willing to subvert the rule of law to defend a lawless President. What is striking is that the entire House GOP and, critically, House Speaker Paul Ryan is going along with it.

They're all going along with everything else. It's some form of the Prisoner's Dilemma and nobody is defecting in meaningful ways.
posted by rhizome at 6:03 PM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the "promise" the Dems extracted for a vote after the next CR/budget passes? How is that leverage?

Clearly the Democrats only agree to another 3 week CR unless a DACA deal happens in the next 3 weeks. That would put the following CR vote on about March 1st.
posted by Justinian at 6:07 PM on January 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


CR is signed, according to everyone's breaking news tickers.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:07 PM on January 22, 2018


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the "promise" the Dems extracted for a vote after the next CR/budget passes?

Where are you seeing this? All the commentary I've been seeing heavily implies that the Senate DACA vote (or, technically, just opening for floor debate) is supposed to be the thing that'll be a bargaining point in the next round of government shutdown brinksmanship, due in three weeks.
posted by mhum at 6:15 PM on January 22, 2018


Aaron Blake, WaPo: This new Trump book could do even more damage than Michael Wolff’s. Here’s why.
Michael Wolff's book is littered with errors. He has a track record that suggests that embellishment is par for the course for him. He misrepresented his way into the White House. How much of his Trump tell-all is embellished or misrepresented is unclear and may never be known.

All of which makes a new book about the early days of the Trump administration potentially even more damning than Wolff's.

The author of this one is Fox News Channel media critic Howard Kurtz, a former longtime reporter at The Washington Post. And as The Post's Ashley Parker writes, his book — “Media Madness: Donald Trump, the Press, and the War Over the Truth” — confirms and expands upon media accounts of the chaos happening behind the scenes at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Among the juiciest anecdotes:
  • Trump has a tendency to do whatever his advisers most strongly advise him against, and they even have a term for such behavior: his “defiance disorder.”

  • He, out of nowhere, tweeted his decision to ban transgender people from the military before a scheduled meeting with then-Chief of Staff Reince Priebus to discuss his options on the matter. “Oh my God, he just tweeted this,” Priebus reportedly said.

  • His aides were similarly blindsided by his accusation, also via Twitter, that President Barack Obama wiretapped Trump during the presidential campaign.

  • Trump was strongly advised not to dispatch then-press secretary Sean Spicer to dispute stories about Trump's inaugural crowd size and later admitted, “I shouldn’t have done that.”
[…]

That's a hell of a way to do business. And the fact that it's how Trump is described by an oft-sympathetic Fox News host makes it ring even truer.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:19 PM on January 22, 2018 [44 favorites]


McConnell delivered a carefully worded speech on the Senate floor, stating that it was his “intention” to address the dreamer issue, whether in the next spending bill or thereafter. He did not offer a specific promise to protect dreamers, and he suggested that he would offer nothing if the government shut down again, but he said he would follow an evenhanded process.
And: Mr. McConnell said he would have the Senate take up immigration legislation by mid-February if the issue had not been resolved by then.

I have yet to see anything authoritative that says McConnell promised a vote before the next CR expires. In fact he explicitly says he will not offer a vote before then, and that he won't offer a vote at all if there is another shutdown.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:26 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


> Nunes is clearly a clown and willing to subvert the rule of law to defend a lawless President. What is striking is that the entire House GOP and, critically, House Speaker Paul Ryan is going along with it.

They're all going along with everything else. It's some form of the Prisoner's Dilemma and nobody is defecting in meaningful ways.


Except for Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos.

Flynn's cooperation with Mueller clearly has spooked Nunes, who, let us not forget (since the media apparently has), was not only a member of the executive committee for Trump's transition team, but also attended a breakfast with Michael Flynn and Turkey's foreign minister just before the inauguration. The desperation with which he's so zealously thrown in his lot with Team Trump suggests very, very guilty behavior.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:31 PM on January 22, 2018 [26 favorites]


Where are you seeing this? All the commentary I've been seeing heavily implies that the Senate DACA vote (or, technically, just opening for floor debate) is supposed to be the thing that'll be a bargaining point in the next round of government shutdown brinksmanship, due in three weeks.

From McConnell's own words setting forth the conditions of the deal:

When the Democratic filibuster of the government funding bill comes
to an end, the serious, bipartisan negotiations that have been going on
for months now to resolve our unfinished business--military spending,
disaster relief, healthcare, immigration, and border security--will
continue.

It would be my intention to resolve these issues as quickly as
possible so that we can move on to other business that is important to
our country. However, should these issues not be resolved by the time the funding
bill before us expires on February 8, 2018, assuming that the
government remains open
, it would be my intention to proceed to
legislation that would address DACA, border security, and related
issues.


He's reserving the right to renege on the deal unless Democrats agree to another CR, and it's likely they will try to jam a full year omnibus instead, which would completely eliminate Democratic leverage going forward. Further, he did not promise a DACA vote before February 8th.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:32 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Except for Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos.

Their effect remains to be seen, and there are forms of the PD that allow partial and variable defections.
posted by rhizome at 6:51 PM on January 22, 2018


Michael Wolff's book is littered with errors.

(Link to another Aaron Blake piece, which is, hilariously, littered with errors.)

He has a track record that suggests that embellishment is par for the course for him.

(Link to a WaPo "Style" piece which gives no grounds for that accusation and reports that Trump and Bannon do not dispute his reporting. So. ?)

He misrepresented his way into the White House.

(Link to another Aaron Blake opinion piece savaging Wolff for not respecting access journalism toadying, but oddly not mentioning the now well-told tale of how Wolff got a free pass because he was writing a book and Trump & Co don't read books, so they didn't care)

Among the juiciest anecdotes:

Three of the four were in the Wolff book! And the fourth sounds amazingly unbelievable - Trump openly regretting something he did? Bullshit.

That's garbage, WaPo, and you need to get Mr. Blake's shit straight because this is whinging clickbait bullshit. Red-pen frowny face. Expect better from you. F.
posted by petebest at 6:55 PM on January 22, 2018 [29 favorites]


An evening with 'deplorables': inside the alt-right party in Manhattan
At last year’s “DeploraBall” members of the anti-establishment movement then known as the “alt-right” celebrated the inauguration of Donald Trump
Then known as the “alt-right.” Now known as the “alt-reich.”
posted by kirkaracha at 6:58 PM on January 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


He's reserving the right to renege on the deal unless Democrats agree to another CR, and it's likely they will try to jam a full year omnibus instead, which would completely eliminate Democratic leverage going forward.

Oh, I think I see now. I guess I wasn't thinking of McConnell's promise itself as having much value but rather considering simply the fact that we all get to go around the whole CR rigamarole again in a couple of weeks as a chance for the Dems to just take the position that "no vote on DACA = we vote no on CR", regardless of McConnell's proposed timing.

If there were a Fox News equivalent on the left, McConnell's weasely wording regarding the exact timing of a DACA vote would be totally moot and the headlines would simply be "McConnell reneges on DACA vote promise." But, I don't know that McConnell's promises necessarily bind the Democrats in any real way. Now, whether Schumer decides to play hardball or pretend that McConnell's word actually means anything... well, that's a whole question in itself.
posted by mhum at 6:58 PM on January 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


What "damage" did Wolff's book do? I bet almost all the readers were people who hated Trump anyway.
posted by AFABulous at 7:20 PM on January 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Sockin'inthefreeworld: "Montana Governor Signs Order to Force Net Neutrality, Cecilia Kang, NYT"

We note in passing that Governor Bullock's name has been floated as a possible 2020 nominee.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:22 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


That's a hell of a way to do business. And the fact that it's how Trump is described by an oft-sympathetic Fox News host makes it ring even truer.

The most hopeful outcome of this: the Fox News crowd realizes they can, in fact, monetize the betrayal of Trump to their personal gain.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:24 PM on January 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Apologies if this is a repeat from the last thread, but I just became aware of this devastating BBC news piece on the impact of deportations in a small town in Washington state. Interviews with several people who voted for Trump because they loved what he said about kicking out illegal immigrants, who are stunned and regretful about how it's playing out.
posted by Sublimity at 7:29 PM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


CBS46 Atlanta: Feds: Man threatened to kill CNN employees
A Michigan man was arrested after an FBI investigation, accused of threatening to travel to Atlanta to commit mass murder at CNN headquarters.

According to federal court documents, the man, from a Detroit suburb, made 22 calls to CNN about a week ago.

It began with claims of "fake news" and ended with threats of violence.

The man told a CNN operator, among other things, "Fake news. I'm coming to gun you all down."

He then called again, saying "I'm smarter than you. More powerful than you. I have more guns than you. More manpower. Your cast is about to get gunned down in a matter of hours."

He continued, "I am coming to Georgia right now to go to the CNN headquarters to f---ing gun every single last one of you."
Words have consequences.
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on January 22, 2018 [67 favorites]


Doktor Zed: "Does this interpretation of the separation of powers hold water, or is it another case of the Republicans' attitude of "states rights for me, but not for thee"?"

My understanding is that the decision proper - finding gerrymanders illegal under the Pennsylvania constitution - can't be appealed. It's *possible* that the decision could somehow violate the US Constitution under a couple of different avenues. The read from all of the legal beagles is that those avenues are all really thin reeds, and SCOTUS precedence in some recent-ish analogous cases (FL and AZ redistricting) was that they wanted to stay out of it.

So, there's a chance the ruling gets stayed, but I'd put it as pretty low.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:33 PM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


What "damage" did Wolff's book do?

For non-book-reading Americans, it was a week's worth of acknowledging the hideous gaping maw of malcompetence in Washington - a thousand times worse than we'd ever seen before. A fair bit of time spent n the fitness of Donny Two Scoops, as he is painfully obviously not fit. And lastly, a good 10,000-ft view of the 18-hour Breaking News Cycle that gave anyone paying attention license to remember that books are the same speed of the real world, not a forever jonsing for a new affront, new witness, new tweets.

And for those on the Republican side who can read - an arrow straight through the heart. And head. Two arrows. We all need to understand the President isn't doing good. He doesn't care about it unless he looks god on tv. He's got no policies, and they can't bring him any, so we're flying. Blind with a ragefountan narccistic bush league, characture for reasons no one will name or admit to.
posted by petebest at 7:43 PM on January 22, 2018 [12 favorites]




Support for Democrats’ DACA Strategy Grew During Government Shutdown, Polls Show
After the government shut down on Saturday, Democrats saw increased voter support for using the spending standoff as leverage to pass legislation that would protect young immigrants who were brought to the United States illegally as children, according to recent Morning Consult/Politico polling.

A nationwide survey found that in the hours leading up to government funding running dry, voters were evenly split at 42 percent when asked whether passing a bill to grant protections to the young immigrants was worth a shutdown. After federal agencies began furloughing non-essential employees, more Americans sided with Democratic lawmakers – 47 percent to 38 percent – when asked the same immigration question in a Jan. 20-21 poll.
posted by chris24 at 8:40 PM on January 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** PA gerrymander -- Discussed above, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled 4-3 in League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania v. Pennsylvania General Assembly that the current Congressional districts are illegal under the state constitution. Background here and here. Points of interest:
  • Since the ruling is based on the PA constitution, we should not see an immediate stay by SCOTUS, as we saw in the recent NC gerrymander case. There are some low probability avenues for appeal, but consensus seems to be that SCOTUS will stay out of it.
  • PA is pretty badly gerrymandered - current delegation is 13 Rs, 5 Ds , despite Rs only winning an aggregate of 54% of the vote.
  • The GOP-controlled General Assembly will need to come up with a new map by Feb 15, which will need to meet the approval of the governor (normal process) and the court. If they don't, the court has appointed a special master to draw new maps.
  • New maps will *not* impact the special election in PA-18 on March 13th. They will impact the general election in November. The primary date is not planned to be moved, but candidates will be given extra time to gather signatures.
  • General opinion is that this should give Dems at least one more seat, and push another 4 or so significantly more blue. It will be hard to untangle the impact of the maps versus the general environment and multiple Republican reps retiring this year. Geographic clustering ("Pittsburgh and Philly and Alabama in the middle") also will still be a factor.
  • Worth noting that other states have similar protections to the PA constitution. This may open a door to more state-level litigation of gerrymandering.


** PA-28 special: DFM Research poll has Saccone only up 41-38 on Lamb. I'm a little skeptical that this is not an outlier - last poll had Saccone +13 - but the race is certainly tighter than the district PVI would normally indicate.

** 2018 House:
-- New WP/ABC poll of the generic ballot has D+12, 51/39. The generic has been seeing a really wide spread in recent polls, but the average is about D+9 or so.

-- Notable in the WP poll, huge gender gap. Men R+9, Women D+35.

-- Interesting thread from ElectProject - we may be seeing issues with the likely voter screen, due to the intensity gap favoring Dems so much. So, just averaging all of the generic ballot polls might not work - the average was significantly off in VA and AL. Upshot is that we *might* expect larger Dem gains at a given generic ballot lead than normal (the proof is in the pudding, of course).

-- Pew survey finds anti-incumbency mood at historic highs, only 48% of registered voters want their incumbent rep re-elected. This has obvious implications for turnout.

-- Paul Ryan refusing to commit to running again. He likely will, but weird that he's waffling.

-- DCCC bringing in record bucks, especially from small donors.

-- Dems worried that too many candidates in California may end up splitting the vote and locking them out of the top two runoff.
** 2018 Senate -- Hillbilly elegist JD Vance has dashed GOP hopes and will not be running for the GOP nod in Ohio. Rep. Jim Renacci is now the likely standard-bearer.

** Odds & ends:
-- Lots of long-tenured Republicans are fleeing PA's legislature, setting the stage for possible serious gains by the Dems. Recent GOP vacancies:
SD-10: 50-46 Clinton; 50-49 Romney
HD-53: 49-47 Clinton; 50-49 Romney
HD-105: 52-44 Trump; 53-45 Romney
HD-144: 51-45 Trump; 54-45 Romney
HD-178: 50-47 Trump; 56-43 Romney
SD-12: 51-45 Clinton; 49-49 Obama
And major rumors about:
HD-26: 52-44 Trump; 53-45 Romney
HD-29: 51-46 Trump; 53-46 Romney
HD-44: 53-43 Trump; 58-42 Romney
-- The Hill looks at special elections and finds there is a definite enthusiasm gap in favor of the Dems.

-- Embattled MO governor says he won't resign in the light of blackmail charges. Meanwhile, the FBI is apparently interested in possible campaign finance violations.

-- Mentioned earlier, the Dallas County, Texas GOP has filed suit to kick 128 Democrats off of the ballot, due to an alleged failure to have petitions signed by the right person. No read on whether this is likely to fly or not.
====

Only one special election this week - PA-HD-35, very likely a Dem hold.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:46 PM on January 22, 2018 [48 favorites]


Clearly the Democrats only agree to another 3 week CR unless a DACA deal happens in the next 3 weeks. That would put the following CR vote on about March 1st.

The (meaningless) McConnell promise is that if an agreement on DACA is not reached by Feb. 8, the Senate will "take up" (whatever that means) the question right after Feb. 8, but only if the government remains open. So in order for Mitch to "take up" the matter, Senate Dems would have to agree to another CR or real funding bill on Feb 8 first.

Of course, "take up" does not mean "bring a bill to the floor." It could mean holding hearings, or doing a study, or discussing immigration over lunch. And of course, McConnell led off his whole "promise" with "it is my intention to . . . ," so you know, if he assures everyone that he really really MEANT to introduce an immigration bill but it just somehow didn't happen, regrettably, goshdarn it. . . . . . . . . .

So voting for the CR today was not much different than voting for the CR on Friday would have been, in terms of its actual impact on reality. It just would have saved people a lot of tweeting in the interim.
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:17 PM on January 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


So voting for the CR today was not much different than voting for the CR on Friday would have been, in terms of its actual impact on reality.

In reality, I had to send a bunch of people home today not knowing when they'd have jobs or get paid again.
posted by ctmf at 9:23 PM on January 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


Voting on the CR today also kept Trump from going to his shindig at Mar Lago. The Republicans had nothing to distract them from the really cheap service: Keebler Cracker Set and plastic spoons.

It probably won't change any opinions, but even a little discomfort on the part of those rich people warms my heart.
posted by happyroach at 9:30 PM on January 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


Speaking as someone who considered the Democrats to be in a tricky strategic position heading into this confrontation and who totally understands how they ended up with the deal that they did, I'm still a little saddened how ready the pragmatic Democratic center is to focus on the minutiae of strategy rather than the principles of defending the Dreamers to the unpragmatic utmost. I feel like had this been a different constituency closer to the heart of the Democratic establishment, there would have been a lot more talk of damn-the-torpedoes-full-steam-ahead. No, the Dems didn't come away with nothing, and yes, their final decision was both reasonable and unsurprising given how this was entered into, but much as the mods here dislike such things, most of the chin-stroking essays I've read about the strategic reasonableness of this outcome lack what each should start and finish with: a howl to the wind at how fantastically awful what's being done to the Dreamers is.

And this does have some strategic consequences: even putting aside the fact that most Americans went into this blaming the Republicans and that support for the Democratic side seemed to be growing over those three days, there still remains a moral, utterly unpragmatic argument to be made for Democrats futilely holding the line for at least a week -- especially once they've entered into this mess in the first place. If you make a stand, you don't leave after the first offer, even if the first offer is a good one and the best you're likely to get. It does make sense to do that, rationally, but jeez, it really feels like something from 1958 where the entire establishment leaps to its feet to explain why African Americans should accept whatever legislative shafting they just got because it's the best outcome they could reasonably expect given the context. It may be true, but it sounds shitty, and sometimes there is benefit in taking a public stand -- even a self-immolating one, much less a stand like this one where no polls suggested Democrats were being hurt -- for something you believe in. Taking a stand does matter.

The one other thing I'd say about strategy is that we talk a lot about Nominate scores and all the rest around here, and that's a two-way street: votes tell us the ideology of Senators, and how Senators vote tells us the ideology of bills. I trust those measures just like I trust my own (blue state) Senators, and when a bank bill wins with just the farthest right Democrats, or a bill like this wins with the Senators I trust most opposing it, that means something. Yes, they are posturing, but every politician is -- that factor cancels out on both sides, and we are left with real ideology, as Nominate shows. The most idealistic left and leftish Senators thought this was a bad deal, and I trust they are not unreasonable. Not because anyone really thinks we could have gotten anything better -- DACA is probably dead until November 2018 -- but because principled stands aren't just posturing. They're not even just tools to build up turnout in low-turnout groups like Hispanic and Latinx voters. They are also statements, like the marches are, to build up a movement. And by all polling accounts, it was working. I wish I'd see more about that in all the Vox-ish essays on Senate rule maneuvering.
posted by chortly at 9:55 PM on January 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


What I'd really like to see right now is every Democratic Senator and Representative, in lockstep, put up a video on their Youtube channels repeating Mitch McConnell's DACA promise and answering in unison, "No, Mitch, that's not good enough, and not what we agreed to. We gave you three more weeks of funding to convince Trump and Ryan to sign a bill to fix DACA. Our demands for such a bill are XYZ. Your party has promised to stop holding Americans hostage on [date] and [date] to make this right, so that's what we expect by February 8."

Why isn't that messaging in the media?
posted by saysthis at 11:06 PM on January 22, 2018 [31 favorites]


Also, I think back pay for workers during the previous shutdown (and any future shutdowns!) should be a Democratic demand for signing a new CR. That's a huge, obviously beneficial thing Dems only lose by not proposing and Repubs only lose by not endorsing. Odd that I haven't seen anyone talking about it yet.
posted by saysthis at 11:27 PM on January 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


I think the Dem's have a pretty good possible strategy:

Just keep asking Republicans, "There's nothing more important than getting this done. We're ready to get this done. You're say you're not ready to get this done even though we gave you the extension you asked for?"

Repeat, ad. inf.

Sadly, something tells me that's not going to be happening. Though it should. Republicans made this mess. If we don't rub their faces in it, they'll just keep making more messes. Either we housebreak them now, or we live in their shit. It's really that simple.
posted by mikelieman at 11:41 PM on January 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


I don’t think politics is like chess, 12-dimensional or otherwise. I think politics is more like poker, and there’s no faster way to put yourself out of a game of poker than going all-in when you’ve convinced yourself you deserve to win. It sucks to be a Dreamer today, but I’m still glad the Democrats didn’t go all-in.
posted by um at 12:53 AM on January 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Honor Sachs put together a series of photos of US Presidents at work, to go with a photo of a big boy with his own desk:
Hey, all you People Who Know Desks: Does this look like the desk of somebody who works?

It's honestly one of the most disheartening things I've seen.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:13 AM on January 23, 2018 [23 favorites]


Meanwhile

(Guardian) Somali citizens count cost of surge in US airstrikes under Trump

(Guardian analysis) US air wars under Trump: increasingly indiscriminate, increasingly opaque
The escalating air war in Somalia is part of a global pattern of an ever broader and unfettered use of air power that has it roots in the Obama administration but which has been spurred on and expanded under Donald Trump.

In the first year of his presidency, Trump has gone out of his way to claim credit for the defeats inflicted on Islamic State, attributing it to his loosening of constraints on his generals.

“I totally changed rules of engagement. I totally changed our military,” the president said in October.

posted by stonepharisee at 1:28 AM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'm not sure where else to put this, but this is breaking news as of 30 minutes ago or less.

8.2 quake in Alaska, PNW and BC and Alaska are under active tsunami watch and warning (Highest two levels.) More in a minute.
posted by loquacious at 2:15 AM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Mod note: One deleted. Sorry, leaving the previous note just on the very off chance someone potentially affected is online reading this, but not aware of this news -- but for more on the earthquake/tsunami, please make a post.
posted by taz (staff) at 2:41 AM on January 23, 2018


I will be totally honest - I expected the Dems to cave (and I think this is caving) and I think the shutdown was largely performative. The Dems don't have the ideology or the will to go to the mat for the left or more vulnerable parts of their base, which is why we need to primary a bunch of them and back DSA candidates. Frankly, I expect the DACA kids to lose, and I think it's a crime against human rights which should send people to the Hague, and I think it will happen because to use such leverage as they have, the Democrats would need to stake out a clear moral position that, no matter what, this ends here. And they will never do that. They are not that party.

There won't be any meaningful vote on DACA. The Republicans will screw the Democrats somehow, the Democrats know they're going to be screwed, and I think a lot of them don't mind since it won't require them to take a final moral position on a bunch of immigrants, something that would hurt them in the media and with the right of their constituency.

It's all very well to be pragmatic about taxes and roads and whatnot, but not about sending a bunch of young people to countries they've never lived in with no resources and maybe not even the language.

Honestly, the right thing to do - the thing history would expect of us - is for all of us who are physically capable to start sitting down in the street. A lot of wrong happens in this country that we let pass by because we don't see it or we're used to it and think it can't be changed, but at the very least we shouldn't let them introduce a new wrong. I guess ultimately we need to display more moral fiber because that's the only thing we can do at this point.
posted by Frowner at 4:50 AM on January 23, 2018 [45 favorites]


On the way in this morning, I heard a talking head refer to the "highly controversial CHIP program."

Come again?

"The Democrats want to paint the Republicans as being unfeeling or monstrous, but there are many questions as to whether CHIP is at all good policy."

I am pretty sure that the Overton Window is now permanently housed on a mover's dolly.
posted by delfin at 5:09 AM on January 23, 2018 [44 favorites]


I suspect that the Overton Window is broken.
posted by clawsoon at 5:21 AM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Holy cow, Nixon's desk
posted by Faint of Butt at 5:21 AM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Gorsuch isn't even pretending to be a neutral judge, he's openly caucusing with Republican Senators and cabinent appointees:

Lamar Alexander: I enjoyed having dinner tonight at the home of Senator John Cornyn and his wife Sandy with our newest Supreme Court Justice, Neil Gorsuch, Transportation Secretary Chao and a few of my other Senate colleagues to talk about important issues facing our country.

Imagine FOX News if Sotomayor was having a strategy lunch with Dick Durbin, Bernie Sanders and say, John Kerry, along with other unnamed Democratic Senators.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:25 AM on January 23, 2018 [89 favorites]


Hey, all you People Who Know Desks: Does this look like the desk of somebody who works?

Meh, he'll just toss off some "Some presidents need a cluttered desk to work. I have the best people working for me, and I can keep everything in my superior brain, no need for papers on a desk. See that phone I'm holding? I'm talking to the person who keeps my desk free from any distractions. Clutter's for losers."

Easiest thing in the world.
posted by Rykey at 5:40 AM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Alternatives to watching the Tuesday January 30 2018 State of the Union address:

6. Watch The Final Year, the documentary of Obama's last year in office. Bring tissues.

The movie is in some movie theaters right now and not yet on HBO. Any pro tips on how to get a local independent movie theater to run the film all day and all night on Tuesday 1/30/18?
posted by jointhedance at 5:44 AM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Gorsuch isn't even pretending to be a neutral judge, he's openly caucusing with Republican Senators and cabinent appointees:

Can’t he get in trouble for that, or something?
posted by Melismata at 5:58 AM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


The conflict-of-interest rules for the Supreme Court are whatever the justices say they are; the only options for disciplining him are for his peers to act, or for Congress to remove him, which ain't happening under Republican control. He's not exactly making it hard to build an impeachment case for whenever the Democrats have enough votes, though.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:02 AM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


(And in my opinion Democrats should be planning to remove every Trump appointee whose term doesn't expire with the president's, especially judges. All but a vanishingly-small number are unqualified, partisan hacks, or both.)
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:04 AM on January 23, 2018 [49 favorites]




Was This Russian General Murdered Over the Steele Dossier?
From the Daily Beast — a good reminder of stuff we all read many months ago and at least I had half forgotten amongst all the covfefe. One nice detail: Of all the officials who serve under Putin, Sechin is the most powerful. Erovinkin, as chief administrator at Rosneft, was Sechin’s right-hand man and knew everything about Sechin's contacts with Americans. Those included the former head of ExxonMobile, now Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Sechin once said he felt thwarted by U.S. imposed sanctions that kept him from riding motorcycles in America with his friend Tillerson.)
posted by mumimor at 6:11 AM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


And in my opinion Democrats should be planning to remove every Trump appointee whose term doesn't expire with the president's, especially judges.

That requires 67 votes. Even if the Democrats had 60 votes, I can guarantee of the 40 Republican Senators remaining, none of them will be moderate enough to be amenable to impeachment of shitty judges.
posted by Talez at 6:18 AM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


For comparison... Trump's desk back at Trump tower and in the early days of this term... Everything on his desks seems to just be a prop depending on what image he is trying to present. I doubt any of it has ever been used.
posted by cirhosis at 6:21 AM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


I have seen reports that this year's flu is pretty serious, and also a bad match for the vaccines that went out.

Are there any estimates of the impact of killing CHIP on the flu's spread and severity from people in public health?
posted by wenestvedt at 6:21 AM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


AP: Group accusing US border patrol of water sabotage sees member arrested
Scott Daniel Warren, 35, a volunteer with the group No More Deaths, faces a federal charge of harboring two people in the country illegally.

Caitlin Deighan, and activist with No More Deaths, stopped short of calling the arrest retaliation but said it looked suspicious that Warren had been charged so soon after the release of the videos.

“We see it as an escalation and criminalization of aid workers,” Deighan said on Monday.

The Border Patrol did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

William Walker, an attorney for Warren, said his client’s actions were not criminal.

“This is a humanitarian aid worker trying to save lives,” Walker said.

His arrest last week came after border patrol agents conducted surveillance on a building where two immigrants were given food, water, beds and clean clothes, according to federal court records.

No More Deaths last week gave news organizations videos taken between 2010 and 2017, mostly by cameras at its desert camp. In one clip, a border patrol agent kicked over five water jugs meant to supply immigrants. In another, an agent pours gallons of water on the ground.

In 2005, two group volunteers were arrested after they drove three immigrants from a desert location to a Tucson church to get medical attention from a doctor and nurse. The indictment was eventually dismissed by a federal judge.
I believe it was the Sermon on the Mount where Jesus said were "Do not give those in need food, water, beds and clean clothes. Instead, kick over their bottles of water and invade my places of worship to deny them medical care."
posted by zombieflanders at 6:41 AM on January 23, 2018 [84 favorites]




Are there any estimates of the impact of killing CHIP on the flu's spread and severity from people in public health?

My state (Texas) has been hit really hard; everyone I know has had it, and yeah it didn't seem to matter much if you had the flu shot (we did; my husband is still in flu recovery after a month anyway).

Undoubtedly lack of access has made recovery difficult, in that people needing more care had trouble getting it, but I'm not sure it had much effect on infection rates. There isn't much you can do for this flu except wait it out and watch out for developing pneumonia and so on.

Re the Border Patrol, I think we can safely assume that an organization that locks up children after they have surgery is a-ok with retaliating for being embarrassed on YouTube.
posted by emjaybee at 6:56 AM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]



You don't influence the party because you're not a member...Register as a damn democrat and then get to work changing the party into the party you WANT it to be.

Even if you hate that there are only two viable parties, the fact remains that there are only two viable parties. If you want to change that, you'll need to be a member of one of those two...

By not registering as a Democrat, you're telling Democrats that apart from your vote, you have no interest in what the party does.



This was way upthread, and there's a grain of truth there, but I do want to push back a little on this.

I have, as an Independent ("No Party Affiliation") worked on four local Dem campaigns, including canvassing, putting up signs, doing lit drops, tabling, gathering signatures and phone banking. I ran a progressive political blog for years. I have personally visited and lobbied representatives at the state Capitol as well as congressmen in Washington D.C. I write letters to representatives and to local papers. I make phone calls to local representatives. I vote in every election, on every race, donate in almost every election cycle (since Howard Dean, anyway), and pay union dues, as well as donate to the union's PAC.

Probably the most effective effort was when we helped bump bloviating moron JD Hayworth from the US House. Probably my biggest waste of time has been lobbying McCain and Flake and (ugh) Huppenthal.

So, I've had a fair bit of influence on the local Dem party without being an official member of the party. Certainly more so than the average party member, anyway. And, I suspect, any Independent could do so, if they started showing up to Dem precinct meetings and established a long-term reputation of solid, hard work on behalf of Dem candidates.

(Of course, I haven't been able to have much influence on what Chuck Schumer does, but then again, how many members of the party can say they actually have?)
posted by darkstar at 6:58 AM on January 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


That requires 67 votes. Even if the Democrats had 60 votes, I can guarantee of the 40 Republican Senators remaining, none of them will be moderate enough to be amenable to impeachment of shitty judges.

No, but now there's also no reason to ever give Republicans a compromise judge pick ever again. No more Merrick Garlands, it should only ever be the youngest Louis Brandeis and William O. Douglas clones Democrats can find, for every opening in every state, on a party line vote. No more reinstating blue slips the moment Democrats regain power, no more asking for consent, no more checking the NRA and Federalist Society's ratings, nothing. Oh, and how about expanding every Circuit in the country and SCOTUS by 3-5 seats and filling those with young progressives.

Start playing the same long game.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:58 AM on January 23, 2018 [72 favorites]


The gloating this morning shows how uneven and gruesome things are. It's the old line about wrestling with a pig: you get filthy and the pig likes it. It is very difficult to win fights against people with no shame and no desire to maintain institutional norms without damaging those norms.

Honestly, the right thing to do - the thing history would expect of us - is for all of us who are physically capable to start sitting down in the street.

I'm still surprised that there hasn't been mass direct action against Family Business properties, especially the publicly-owned one in DC.
posted by holgate at 7:06 AM on January 23, 2018 [22 favorites]


Chait/nymag: Trump Hasn’t Destroyed Obama’s Legacy. He’s Revealed How Impressive It Was.

Trump Hasn't Destroyed Obama's Legacy; He's Revealed How Impressive My Book Claiming That It Was Unassailable, on Sale at Booksellers Near You, Really Was
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 7:39 AM on January 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


With Trump's new solar tariff (linking upthread), Tesla looks to benefit
Interestingly, one of the domestic manufacturers poised to take the most advantage of this decision is Tesla, which bought SolarCity and its brand-new solar panel factory in Buffalo, New York, in 2016. Tesla recently announced that the Buffalo factory, called Gigafactory 2, had begun making traditional solar panels and solar roof tiles over the past several months.

Although the Buffalo factory currently only produces tiles and modules and imports solar cells, the factory plans to eventually manufacture its own cells. In a statement, a Tesla spokesperson said, "Tesla is committed to expanding its domestic manufacturing, including Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, New York, regardless of the solar tariff decision today."
But the association that represents SolarCity recognize that this tariff will likely hurt the industry on the whole:
The Solar Energy Industries Association, which represents solar installers like Elon Musk’s SolarCity, was aghast at the ruling, saying yesterday that it would harm the industry and cost thousands of jobs.
This decision will cause roughly 23,000 American jobs to be lost this year, including many in manufacturing, and will cancel of billions of dollars in investments in the U.S. economy. #SaveSolarJobs
— Solar Industry (@SEIA) January 22, 2018 [tweet]
The US solar industry employs between 260,000 and 374,000 workers (PDF), with about 38,000 in manufacturing and the bulk of the remainder in installation. “Solar installer” is poised to become the fastest-growing job in the United States over the next 10 years.
Trump's Tariffs on Solar Mark Biggest Blow to Renewables Yet (Brian Eckhouse, Ari Natter, and Chris Martin for Bloomberg)

Well, it was posed to become the fastest growing job. Thanks, Trump!

Meanwhile, it looks like there are a number of "American-made" washing machines (Google search results), so no one's talking about that aspect of this tariff.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:50 AM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Hey, all you People Who Know Desks: Does this look like the desk of somebody who works?

To be fair, Donny was in real estate, so maybe he has show home furniture habits.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:02 AM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


The dealmaker-in-chief on a DACA: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (tweet)
Nobody knows for sure that the Republicans & Democrats will be able to reach a deal on DACA by February 8, but everyone will be trying....with a big additional focus put on Military Strength and Border Security. The Dems have just learned that a Shutdown is not the answer!
Jessica Taylor at NPR reports that "Congress also needs to agree on a long-term funding plan by Feb. 8, which is thought to be close at hand, but there are several reasons why finding a bipartisan solution on immigration is far from easy."
To begin with, President Trump has been inconsistent on what kind of immigration bill he would sign, despite an insistence otherwise from White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Monday. The broad framework is that, in exchange for a permanent fix for DACA, the president wants funding for the border wall he touted frequently during the campaign, along with an end to what he calls chain migration — or legal immigrants bringing other family members to the U.S. — and an end to the visa lottery system.

But when Trump held a bipartisan discussion with lawmakers earlier this month, he signaled that he would sign whatever bill Congress sent him, even if he wasn't "in love with" it and that he would take any backlash from both sides. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said that he offered Trump funding for his border wall on Friday, hours before the shutdown started, as part of a deal for DACA protections but that Trump's chief of staff, John Kelly, later called to say the deal was off.
Who's in charge again? I guess he can't make all the phone calls himself, he has to save some of his energy for executive time.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:03 AM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Kira Lerner: Florida voters will be able to restore voting rights to over a million former felons in November
The proposed constitutional amendment on Tuesday reached the 766,200 petition signatures required to go on the ballot. The Voting Restoration Amendment, which the state is expected to certify soon, would automatically restore rights to citizens convicted of most non-violent crimes who have completed their prison sentence, parole, and probation. Only those convicted of murder or felony sexual offense would be excluded.

If approved with 60 percent of the vote in November, the amendment has the potential to reshape electoral politics in Florida, a critical swing state, and set the example for other states grappling with whether to relax strict laws prohibiting people with criminal convictions from voting. Florida currently has one of the strictest felon disenfranchisement laws in the country — only Florida, Kentucky, Virginia, and Iowa permanently bar those with felony convictions from voting for life, unless they seek clemency. In total, roughly 1.6 million Florida citizens — about one in four African Americans — are barred from casting a ballot.

Sheena Meade, organizing director for the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition which led the initiative to gather more than a million signatures, told ThinkProgress that getting the amendment certified is a “huge accomplishment for the people of Florida.”
posted by zombieflanders at 8:07 AM on January 23, 2018 [60 favorites]


zombieflanders: Kira Lerner: Florida voters will be able to restore voting rights to over a million former felons in November

Related -- Florida strips felons of their right to vote at a higher rate than any other state (Annika Hammerschlag for USA Today Network, Jan. 15, 2018)
Florida strips felons of their right to vote at a higher rate than any other state, barring more than 10% of its overall adult population — including 21.5% of African-Americans — from the polls, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Sentencing Project.

According to numerous historians, voting rights advocates and law groups, that racial disparity is no coincidence.
I expect a ton of money to go into the anti-rights campaigns, as this lines up with conservative talking points that 7 in 10 felons register as Democrats (WARNING: Washington Examiner link, not a reputable news source but a link to conservative thoughts, and a source of pop-ups), and back in late 2015, "Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz said most violent criminals are Democrats," which Politifact unpacked
Research cited by the Cruz campaign supports the claim that, in at least three states, felons released from prison go on to register as Democrats at a disproportionately high rate following their release.

However, there are important caveats. The study in question looked at both violent and nonviolent felons without separating out those two groups. It’s not clear whether the patterns holds in the other 47 states. Also, the study didn’t look at active "criminals" but rather those who had already served their time. Finally, it’s hard to draw a line between cause and effect, particularly given the disproportionately high population of African-Americans -- a traditionally Democratic group -- in the criminal justice system.

We rate his statement Mostly False.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:42 AM on January 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


Kira Lerner: Florida voters will be able to restore voting rights to over a million former felons in November

I get the politics of not extending the franchise to murderers and sex offenders, but am I crazy to think that they too are citizens and have the right to vote? Anyway, this is the first referendum since the high speed train where I wish I was back in FL as a registered voter.
posted by dis_integration at 8:58 AM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


Neil Gorsuch must recuse himself from DACA case after political talks with Senate GOP leadership - raises the possibility of impeaching him for ethics breaches.

am I crazy to think that they too are citizens and have the right to vote?

I think the theory is they might vote to make murder legal, which is pretty unlikely. But if there was ever a group likely to vote to make their own crimes legal it’s white collar criminals, so maybe disenfranchise them?
posted by Artw at 9:12 AM on January 23, 2018 [70 favorites]


It's difficult to even gauge what Republicans and right-wing nuts are going to do on any given thing because they only ever argue in bad faith. Do they really believe x? Maybe. Maybe not. We won't ever know by listening to them though, this Age of Trump has proven that for two years running now.

Of course we said that after Reagan. And Iraq War guy (the first one, not the second one). And they really lost the plot during Clinton. Then the other Iraq War guy. Man, I thought that was as bad as it could get.

Tom Perez, I hope you got stuff, man.
posted by petebest at 9:12 AM on January 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Permanent disenfranchisement for criminal convictions not eligible for life imprisonment is unconscionable and just blatantly racist. I suppose some arguments could be made that, if one viewed prison as rehabilitative as opposed to punitive, allowing those still in the process of being "rehabilitated" to vote doesn't make sense. Yet, Maine and Vermont both allow incarcerated individuals to vote absentee, and New Hampshire, Utah, and Massachusetts all have at some prior point.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:13 AM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


I get the politics of not extending the franchise to murderers and sex offenders

I'd caution on framing here. According to Florida court records, there were around 4000 serious crimes (murders+sexual offenses) at trial in the most recent year stats are available (15/16). There were 170,000 criminal charges at circuit level. The majority of those were crimes against property (80,000) and drugs (40,000), so likely overwhelmingly non-violent.

Framing this as "murderers and sex offenders" is a statistical untruth, imo, the sort used as talking-points to shift the conversational window towards a "law and order debate" that feeds the conservative base fears. It's pandering, in other words, to serve an ideology.

If there is to be constructive discussion of restoring franchise, how the debate is framed needs to move away from the untrue exaggerations about rights for "murderers and rapists" and talk instead about lifetime removal of rights of people with convictions for largely non-violent offenses.
posted by bonehead at 9:14 AM on January 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


Another thing we need to change when we get a majority again: there is no way the President should have the power to unilaterally impose tariffs.
posted by sotonohito at 9:15 AM on January 23, 2018 [32 favorites]


I'm OK with disenfranchising a few very select people like convicted spy Robert Hanssen, on the grounds of treason, or Bernie Madoff on the grounds of causing harm to the economy and bankrupting countless innocent people. Hmm, these look to be middle-class to affluent white guys...

Is there really a fear that convicted criminals will call for making murder legal or lowering the age of consent? (Once again, with regards to the latter, the ones I've heard calling for that are...dun dun...well-off white guys!) What sensible congressperson is going to introduce a bill calling for legalized murder? That has got to be the strawiest strawman that ever strawed. (As for legalizing or lowering penalties on nonconsensual sex of whatever stripe, that's something Republican congresscritters are more likely to drool over. "Family values" my ass.)

Enfranchise 'em all unless they are convicted traitors or large-scale white-collar criminals. And then make it easier to get to the polls.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 9:26 AM on January 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Huh.

Schumer withdraws offer on Trump's wall
Chuck Schumer is taking his big spending boost for Donald Trump’s border wall off the table.

The Senate minority leader, through an aide, informed the White House on Monday that he was retracting the offer he made last week to give Trump well north of the $1.6 billion in wall funding Trump had asked for this year, according to two Democrats. And now they say Trump will simply not get a better deal than that on his signature campaign promise.
OK, everybody switch sides. All those who said Dems caved have to start defending Schumer & those who said he played it right have to start attacking him. Go!
posted by scalefree at 9:31 AM on January 23, 2018 [81 favorites]


Voter disenfranchisement is voter suppression in almost every single case. I don't care if it's felons, or college students, or whatever. Especially when it comes to felons, it's demonstrably racist, and it's designed to prevent people who are the victims of a horrible justice system from ensuring that their voices are heard to change the system. It's one of those things that maybe-kinda-sorta makes sense on the face of it, but anyone who's still spouting the usual lines about how "they gave up that chance when they committed the crime" in the face the massive amount of research done on how these voter laws are implemented in this country is supporting a de facto Jim Crow system is defending voter suppression, full stop.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:38 AM on January 23, 2018 [35 favorites]


The rhetoric is important:Dreamers are Americans; Dreamers are Americans; Dreamers are Americans. Republicans want to deport American children.

Well, that's kind of the question, isn't it? If they had American passports or even Permanent Resident cards, then their legal status in the country would be clear, and they wouldn't be deportable. (PRs could technically be deported, but only in the case of being convicted of crimes IIRC.)
posted by theorique at 9:45 AM on January 23, 2018


(PRs could technically be deported, but only in the case of being convicted of crimes IIRC.)
This happened just yesterday, so forgive me for not finding that "technically" very reassuring.
posted by one for the books at 9:54 AM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Dreamers are Americans. But we're still trying to convince a big chunk of America that liberals, progressives, social workers, activists, civil rights advocates, professors, union members, immigrants, racial minorities, non-Christians in general, Muslims specifically, anthem kneelers, government assistance recipients, poor people, middle-class people, West Coasters, East Coasters, city dwellers, pro-choicers, feminists, LGBTs, friends and family of all of the above, and women are Americans as well.
posted by delfin at 10:02 AM on January 23, 2018 [92 favorites]


Neil Gorsuch must recuse himself from DACA case after political talks with Senate GOP leadership

Won't happen. They don't give a fuck. Clarence Thomas' wife is a major Tea Party organizer and he never recuses from political cases.

The Supreme Court is a Republican political branch, and has been since Bush v. Gore. They don't even pretend otherwise, and the rest of us should stop pretending too.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:03 AM on January 23, 2018 [33 favorites]




Oh, and how about expanding every Circuit in the country and SCOTUS by 3-5 seats and filling those with young progressives.

I keep seeing this court-packing scheme come up in a lot of progressive forums but I don't see how it doesn't end in both sides doing it every presidential cycle until the Supreme Court has more members than the House?
posted by murphy slaw at 10:09 AM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


> And, for the record, polling shows that a very small minority of citizens actually want Dreamers deported; and a significant majority want either outright citizenship or at the least legal residency.
Democrats are hoping that will matter to the rest of the country. I'm skeptical. This is an issue that's like universal background checks for gun sales: The liberal/Democratic position has overwhelming public support, but the people who are passionate one-issue voters are overwhelmingly on the other side.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:09 AM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Well, I certainly have no questions about it: Dreamers are Americans. They happen to not have American citizenship or permanent residency, but Dreamers look a lot more American to me than the coterie of individuals putting an emphasis on legality rather than ethicality. The fact is that they're as American as I am (I am American); the law has unfortunately not yet caught up to the facts.

Leaving aside the characteristically racist and sexist parts, the Naturalization Act of 1790 only required two years' residence for someone to become a naturalized citizen. No kidding when saying that the United States is a fundamentally immigrant nation, even in its conception in the minds of the founding rich white fathers.
posted by XMLicious at 10:11 AM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


David J. Neal, Miami Herald: Border Patrol agents boarded a bus and asked for citizenship papers. Is that legal? (includes video)

Includes detail on "Section 1357 of Title 8 of the United States Code, the part covering powers of immigration officers and employees".
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:11 AM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Opioid commission member: Our work is a 'sham'
(CNN) The Republican-led Congress has turned the work of the president's opioid commission into a "charade" and a "sham," a member of the panel told CNN.

"Everyone is willing to tolerate the intolerable -- and not do anything about it," said former Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy, who was one of six members appointed to the bipartisan commission in March. "I'm as cynical as I've ever been about this stuff." [...]

"This and the administration's other efforts to address the epidemic are tantamount to reshuffling chairs on the Titanic," said Kennedy. "The emergency declaration has accomplished little because there's no funding behind it. You can't expect to stem the tide of a public health crisis that is claiming over 64,000 lives per year without putting your money where your mouth is."
I guess they should have left Jared in charge.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:16 AM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


I keep seeing this court-packing scheme come up in a lot of progressive forums but I don't see how it doesn't end in both sides doing it every presidential cycle until the Supreme Court has more members than the House?

There's actually a compromise reform - 18 year terms, every President is guaranteed 2 appointments. Let's open with Court packing, and compromise for scheduled appointments and predictable terms. The Circuit Courts could be similarly scheduled, maybe leave District courts as lifetime appointments if necessary and allow Appellate judges to return to a trial court after their terms if they want to keep serving.

But Court packing needs to be a credible threat to achieve reform, Democrats have to play hardball to enforce fairness, because when they pre-compromise Obama-style, or even credit Republicans will work in good faith to achieve a greater good, that's when Republicans will take advantage every time. Play. The. Same. Game.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:19 AM on January 23, 2018 [27 favorites]


Mod note: Couple deleted; let's skip having more rounds of a very obvious argument about what exactly "American" means.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 10:33 AM on January 23, 2018


Our government and laws claim that certain human beings do not have the correct papers or documents to live in this country. (Setting DACA aside for a second, not everyone who is undocumented is an immigrant; people may become undocumented for a whole host of reasons.) Our laws require that you show proof of citizenship or legal presence. We, by virtue of living in a "democracy," get to define what that proof is and how one obtains it, and the consequences for not having such proof. We can grant amnesty for everyone if we want to. We can deem formerly "illegal" actions to be legal. This isn't a "the card says Moops" situation; laws apply to the extent we, through our government, apply them. We can choose not to apply them; we can choose to change them; we can choose to do the right thing.
posted by melissasaurus at 10:37 AM on January 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


Leaving aside the characteristically racist and sexist parts, the Naturalization Act of 1790 only required two years' residence for someone to become a naturalized citizen. No kidding when saying that the United States is a fundamentally immigrant nation, even in its conception in the minds of the founding rich white fathers.

Well, to be fair, another batch of those rich, white founders passed the Alien Act barely eight years later changing the residency requirements from 2 to 14 years, mostly because that batch of rich, white founders didn't like the way those immigrants were likely to vote in an upcoming election that was sure to be decisive and controversial.

I'm so tired, y'all.
posted by absalom at 10:40 AM on January 23, 2018 [18 favorites]


David J. Neal, Miami Herald: Border Patrol agents boarded a bus and asked for citizenship papers. Is that legal? (includes video)

Includes detail on "Section 1357 of Title 8 of the United States Code, the part covering powers of immigration officers and employees".


Constitution Free Zone, everybody.

CBP needs to be torn to the foundations and rebuilt from the ground up.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:40 AM on January 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


There's actually a compromise reform

The problem is that their terms are defined in Art III of the Constitution. That reform then requires a constitutional amendment. Good luck with that.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:43 AM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


The problem with a photo of Trump at the Resolute Desk is that it's Trump, not that the desk is clean.

While I agree with the general shape of your argument and yeah Trump is always going to be the biggest problem in any situation, I have to differ with you on the last point. My real problem with the photo is that it was the White House's attempt to "Prove" that Trump is busy working and they can't even carry that lie out competently. This is supposed to be the great deal maker and showman?
posted by cirhosis at 10:49 AM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


It's disheartening to log onto MeFi and see people attacking the fact that Trump did a press photo where the Oval Office desk is clutter-free.

A Google image search for "Obama Resolute Desk" has lots of images of an empty or near-empty desk.

My main take-away is that Obama put his feet up a lot.
posted by bonehead at 10:51 AM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


I think most of us here realize the trump desk photo is not an impeachable offense, but thanks.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:06 AM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


I keep seeing this court-packing scheme come up in a lot of progressive forums but I don't see how it doesn't end in both sides doing it every presidential cycle until the Supreme Court has more members than the House?

It wouldn't even work anyway because you'd need 60 votes to pass it. No moderate from either side will break that filibuster no matter the past transgressions. At least until it hits 2030 and the fleeing Democrats from purple but red at the state level states turn the midwest a solid red.
posted by Talez at 11:16 AM on January 23, 2018


Mod note: Enough on the desk thing too. There are many other interesting things to do or discuss or contribute to here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:19 AM on January 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


Sorry, just trying to contribute my small part to long fascination, in story and song of the importance of Desks in American culture. And my part is now done.
posted by bonehead at 11:45 AM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Listening to Here & Now this morning, they’re going with the “Democrats caved” message and “CHIP funding is something both Republicans and Democrats wanted” ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by gucci mane at 11:47 AM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]




Apply Betteridge's law.
posted by Dashy at 12:03 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Democrats did the 'responsible thing' and reopened government. Will that backfire?

... for three weeks. THREE WEEKS. Just sayin' (every time someone brings up the Dems in this particular scenario).


mumimor: Breaking: Sessions Is Interviewed in Mueller’s Russia Investigation NYTimes
Attorney General Jeff Sessions was questioned for several hours last week as part of the special counsel investigation, a Justice Department spokeswoman said on Tuesday, and the former F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, was interviewed by the office last year, according to two people briefed on the matter.

The meeting with Mr. Sessions marked the first time that investigators for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, are known to have interviewed a member of President Trump’s cabinet.
Key words are "are known" -- he could have interviewed others earlier. But then again, Trump and co are absolute shit at keeping quiet on matters of importance.

ZeusHumms: Aaron Blake, WaPo: It’s looking more and more like Jeff Sessions is doing Trump’s political dirty work

FTFEveryone.

Also, that article reminds me YET AGAIN how fucking far from normal we are, where the POTUS, with his personal email account muses out loud "Why didn't A.G. Sessions replace Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, a Comey friend who was in charge of Clinton investigation but got big dollars ($700,000) for his wife's political run from Hillary Clinton and her representatives. Drain the Swamp!"
In other words, Trump has publicly stated his preference for Sessions to try to get rid of McCabe, and he has suggested Wray do it as well. Now we find out Sessions did indeed attempt it, and Wray resisted it.

But it's only the latest evidence that Sessions and his Justice Department are taking specific actions that Trump has publicly urged, even as they, in some cases, risk looking like they are in service to Trump's political goals.
And then Trump actually hit Sessions for his weak positions on both leakers and Clinton's emails in the same tweet.
Some of these things are issues on which Sessions has clearly sided with Trump, especially the dangers of leakers. So it's perhaps no surprise Sessions would pursue them. But the fact that Trump called for these actions before Sessions was reported to have taken them sure makes it look like he's taking direction from Trump — or at least succumbing to pressure that Trump and others have brought to bear.
Again, that's very public pressure on the A.G. by the POTUS with his personal Twitter account.

I really hope we can shake this off as our nation's gas leak year.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


In both the felony enfranchisement and voter ID debates, the side in favor of suppression relies a lot on "common sense" rather than real arguments. E.g the old "You need an ID for everything else" bromide.

Personally, I was [that German word for suprised-but-not-surprised] when I learned that disenfranchising felons was part of Jim Crow, rather than existing from the get-go. (I believe I can credit a very solid Adam Ruins Everything segment on American politics). But now, thanks to its ubiquity, "felons can't vote" is just another Thing Everybody Knows, here in the USA. It's not even a matter of people imagining a rationale for it; they just figure the one thing necessarily/legally goes with the other, like assuming that the right to officiate marriages naturally pairs with becoming a sea captain (except that the latter is entirely a myth).

When it comes to actual arguments, the "what if murderers legalize murder" argument is blatantly nonsensical, because it would require one of two circumstances: The legislators fail to reflect the preferences of the people, or the people (as in over 50% of the citizens) actually prefer legalized murder. In the former case, they're not representatives and the electoral system probably needs fixing. The latter would be a flaw with democracy itself, similar to tyranny by majority and justifying a Constitutional provision that states can't legalize murder no matter how much they want to.

Way more troubling is the reverse possibility, whereby millions of people are prevented from voting to legalize the same harmless act which (possibly in conjunction with systemic prejudice) lead them to be labeled felons in the first place -- even if those same "felons" are a crucial part of a popular majority that agrees in legalization. Any arbitrary activity could get caught up in that vicious loop -- playing racquetball, eating chocolate, smoking cannabis. Of course, such a scenario is so contrived that it's hard to imagine, but there you go.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:26 PM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Meanwhile, another conversation that isn't happening in politics: the rise of the contract worker, and the fall of benefits, off-loading the costs of medical care and even vehicle or equipment ownership and maintenance makes good business sense, but is terrible for the workers.
"There are really big risks in freelancing, because the income is so episodic and freelancers aren't entitled to unemployment insurance and this is really bad for low-wage workers in particular," says Sara Horowitz, founder of the Freelancers Union, which has 350,000 members.

Horowitz sees answers in things like her union's health insurance, which it has offered to members for two decades.

"The answer is to build a safety net that's universal for everybody," she says. "Not to say this is only for very low wage workers, nor is it to say this is for highly skilled professional workers, but actually, they're all going through this together."

The best antidote to fear, she says, is to create a new social safety net where freelancers can rely on each other. Horowitz says she hopes that the tens of millions of freelancers will take their concerns to the polls, and that elected officials will push for plans to rethink the social safety net.
Universal medical, dental, eye care, universal "pensions" if not UBI. "But how will we pay for it?" Let's span the prosperity gap and reduce economic inequality! Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart -- the very affluent (the top 99.999th percentile) see the largest income growth. (New York Times op-ed by David Leonhardt, Aug. 7, 2017), and the top 1% controls 38.6% of America's wealth (Matt Egan for CNN Money, Sept. 27, 2017).

Who are the takers and who are the makers, again?
posted by filthy light thief at 12:28 PM on January 23, 2018 [44 favorites]


regarding the Oldest Estabished Permanent Floating Continuing Resolution in DC, has it ever been the case that the federal government has operated without a formal budget for an entire year?
posted by murphy slaw at 12:31 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


the rise of the contract worker, and the fall of benefits

I've noticed a big rise in contract-to-perm positions lately. I'm stuck in one now. It forces you to work for six months without vacation time, holidays, sick time, or health insurance. And then if you leave when the promised permanent position never arrives, they'll just hire another person the same way. It's bogus.
posted by diogenes at 12:39 PM on January 23, 2018 [31 favorites]


regarding the Oldest Estabished Permanent Floating Continuing Resolution in DC, has it ever been the case that the federal government has operated without a formal budget for an entire year?

Goodness yes; recently passing a budget has been the exception rather than the norm. But the budget isn't what's important; the budget is just a political document with no binding power. When it comes to running the government, it's the individual appropriations bills - which designate money to the various departments - which matter. They're separate from the budget document. "Between fiscal year 1977 and fiscal year 2015, Congress only passed all twelve regular appropriations bills on time in four years - fiscal years 1977, 1989, 1995, and 1997."
posted by nickmark at 12:48 PM on January 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


Libby Watson in Splinter News: We're Gonna Be Stuck With Trumpism for a Loooong Time
There’s another lesson in Hammer’s work. There is a persistent idea in the political and media classes that there is a division between Trump Conservatism—racist, dumb, populist—and the more intellectual, elite conservatism, of the kind that the National Review supposedly embodied before it turned full cuck. It’s not racism, you see, but sound logic and principle that leads intellectual conservatives to decry welfare queens or fret about Sharia law coming to Texas. It can’t possibly be bigotry if you cite Edmund Burke. This has always been a fallacy, and it’s never been less true than it is now. It is impossible to identify with the modern conservatism movement, to the extent that Hammer does and not be both a bigot and an idiot. You cannot be a guy who writes about Islamic jihad coming in over the Mexican border and also think you’re one of the good ones because you wear a bow tie and are sometimes annoyed with Trump, mainly for being too dumb and addled to achieve your horrid policy goals.

The Washington Post’s Eugene Volokh described Hammer’s new boss, Judge Ho, as “extremely smart and thoughtful” and a “superb” choice. Ho has hired a clerk who is an open Islamophobe and anti-immigrant bigot, who treats clowns like Ben Shapiro and Erick Erickson as intellectual idols, who thinks that abortion is the same as slavery. He says it with long words published under his real name on the Daily Wire, rather than behind the handle @MAGAchud1965 and an eagle avatar, but the sentiment is the same. The story isn’t that Hammer has a job with our federal judiciary despite his horrid views. It’s that those views are well the norm for conservative “thought,” even at the most elite levels, and it is this conservatism, taking root in the judiciary and federal agencies, that we will be dealing with long after Trump leaves office. It’s Josh Hammers all the way down.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 12:49 PM on January 23, 2018 [50 favorites]


When it comes to actual arguments, the "what if murderers legalize murder" argument is blatantly nonsensical, because it would require one of two circumstances

Absolutely, and my sense is that this issue can be cut to the quick with something like "well why shouldn't convicts be able to vote, even from prison?"
posted by rhizome at 12:49 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


WaPo, Carol Leonnig and Josh Dawsey, Mueller seeks to question Trump about Flynn and Comey departures
Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III is seeking to question President Trump in the coming weeks about his decisions to oust national security adviser Michael Flynn and FBI Director James B. Comey, according to two people familiar with his plans.

Mueller's interest in the events that led Trump to push out Flynn and Comey indicates that his investigation is intensifying its focus on possible efforts by the president or others to obstruct or blunt the special counsel's probe.

Trump's attorneys have crafted some negotiating terms for the president's interview with Mueller's team, one that could be presented to the special counsel as soon as next week, according to the two people.

The president's legal team hopes to provide Trump's testimony in a hybrid form — answering some questions in a face-to-face interview and others in a written statement.
posted by zachlipton at 12:56 PM on January 23, 2018 [36 favorites]


Marcy Wheeler's rather unfortunately-titled but still worthwhile column at The New Republic, "All Glenn Greenwald’s Women" may be instructive as an antidote/compliment to the recent New York Magazine profile of the same.

I was listening to the new Backlisted podcast on James Hilton's Lost Horizon and one of the novel's paragraphs struck me as a perfect description of our moment:
"There came a time, he [Conway] realized, when the strangeness of everything made it increasingly difficult to realize the strangeness of anything; when one took things for granted merely because astonishment would have been as tedious for oneself as for others. Thus far had he progressed at Shangri-La, and he remembered that he had attained a similar though far less pleasant equanimity during his years at the War."
posted by octobersurprise at 1:00 PM on January 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


Trump's attorneys have crafted some negotiating terms for the president's interview with Mueller's team

*crumples up terms, throws over shoulder, lights cigarette*

Which one of you guys was decorated for leading a Marine platoon in Vietnam again?
posted by petebest at 1:03 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Pat Meehan is my rep, and his district is the infamous Goofy Kicking Donald Duck gerrymandered PA-07. He knew that the aide had his handwritten note, and he tried to silence her with his request to release parties from the NDA, knowing that would make her name public when she was trying to stay anonymous.

This scandal plus the new congressional maps should give a huge advantage to whichever Democrat makes it through the primary to challenge Meehan.
posted by gladly at 1:07 PM on January 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


He said he told the aide “that I was a happily married man and I was not interested in a relationship, particularly not any sexual relationship, but we were soul mates. I think that the idea of soul mate is that sort of person that out go through remarkable experiences together.”

I wonder if his wife has met her soul mate yet
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:08 PM on January 23, 2018 [53 favorites]


[Representative Pat Meehan] said he told the aide “that I was a happily married man and I was not interested in a relationship, particularly not any sexual relationship, but we were soul mates. . . "

"You are my soul mate" is the new "My wife doesn't understand me".
posted by jointhedance at 1:09 PM on January 23, 2018 [38 favorites]


Marcy Wheeler's rather unfortunately-titled but still worthwhile column at The New Republic, "All Glenn Greenwald’s Women" may be instructive as an antidote/compliment to the recent New York Magazine profile of the same.

That Marcy Wheeler/Emptywheel piece is pretty good, particularly as it reaches its conclusion:
The most glaring example of unhelpful sensationalism, which virtually all sides contribute to, pertains to the Christopher Steele dossier. Neither its salacious revelations about a “pee tape” nor its more mundane reports of meetings between Trump officials and Russians to coordinate on the election have yet been publicly corroborated in their specifics. Many people point to the dossier’s report on former campaign adviser Carter Page’s trip to Russia to claim it has been verified by known facts. But the opposite is actually the case, as far as we know: Page met with different Russians.

Democrats made—and still make—the dossier the centerpiece of their grand narrative about Trump, in spite of all the more solid reporting since then that amounts to at least circumstantial evidence of coordination. That made the belated admission that Democrats funded the dossier controversial when it otherwise wouldn’t have been. In turn, Republicans are spending their days discrediting the dossier, but apparently haven’t noticed that, thus far, nothing Robert Mueller has done appears to be the investigative fruit of that intelligence.

The truth lies somewhere between Trump being a Manchurian Candidate and Greenwald’s insistence that the Russia story is a fabrication of a fevered, Russo-phobic liberal mind. And for all its nuances, it’s still a powerful, important story. We’ve discovered that social media giants may be the weak underbelly through which all kinds of adversaries, foreign and domestic, can exercise toxic influence. We can see that Vladimir Putin is having increasing success at filling a vacuum of credibility in Western countries, especially in Europe, created by recent American failures. But when we talk about the Russia story, we aren’t talking about the dangerous concentration in Silicon Valley or partisan outlets like Breitbart or the way the Iraq War undermined the United State’s legitimacy around the world. We’re talking about Glenn Greenwald and the pee tape.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 1:10 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


The president's legal team hopes to provide Trump's testimony in a hybrid form — answering some questions in a face-to-face interview

Evasions, circumlocution, unrelated boasting.

and others in a written statement.

Outright lies crafted by Yosemite Sam cosplayer Ty Cobb. Also unrelated puffery.
posted by uncleozzy at 1:13 PM on January 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


That Marcy Wheeler/Emptywheel piece is pretty good, particularly as it reaches its conclusion:

You buried the lede:
But unlike Greenwald I have no doubt that Russia launched a successful attack on the United States in 2016. Indeed, I’m of the opinion that if special counsel Robert Mueller is permitted to pursue all angles of this operation, we’ll learn the damage was worse than most people imagine. I say that, in part, because I believe the Shadow Brokers persona was a part of the operation, working in tandem with Russian-backed hackers who stole emails from the Democratic National Committee. Shadow Brokers had previously released a slew of NSA hacking tools that were then integrated into global malware like WannaCry and NotPetya, which together did hundreds of millions of dollars of damage to Western companies and hurt the NSA’s ability to respond to the Russian operation.

I arrived at this conclusion through the work. Like Hennessey, I think the truth of the Russia story can be gleaned from the evidence. And for a variety of reasons, I’ve worked hard on this issue since the original hack. In the days after the hack in the fall of 2016, for example, I got pitched an alternate theory: that the emails leaked to WikiLeaks may have been obtained by reusing credentials allegedly stolen by Russian hacker Yevgeniy Nikulin and made publicly available. I spent months testing that theory against public claims that this was a standard hack by Russian intelligence. While I’m not certain precisely what happened, I suspect we’ll learn that the Russians built in several layers of plausible deniability that have made the Mueller investigation more difficult and that have served as fodder to skeptics of the Russia story.

I also arrived at this conclusion with the help of a number of pieces of evidence that, for various reasons, have not yet been made public. As one example, in the days after the hack of the DNC, I learned that Facebook had observed actions in real time it attributed to APT 28, believed to be tied to Russia’s military intelligence. In an April 2017 report, Facebook alluded obliquely to this observation when it said its own conclusions were consistent with the U.S. government’s. Then, last September, an anonymous source told The Washington Post that Facebook shared what it had seen with the FBI. In other words, almost a year before it became public, I learned that Facebook, an independent actor with global network visibility, backs the intelligence community’s conclusions about the hack.

I’ve also focused obsessively on this story because of the kind of inaccurate sensationalism that pervades New York’s profile of Greenwald, such as him dismissing a plea agreement that provides solid evidence that Russians offered “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of emails. “They had all these kind of losers who weren’t even in the Trump campaign,” he told van Zuylen-Wood. “You know, these charlatans who were constantly puffing up their résumés, who come from the shittiest schools and have no significant experience.” This even though Paul Manafort, the former campaign chair, was involved. There has been so much garbage written about the DNC hack that I wanted to ride herd on some of the more outlandish claims. Greenwald has even applauded a number of these pieces of mine, such as my warning that officials should avoid forming conclusions about intelligence (as it did in the lead-up to the Iraq War) until all agencies weighed in. But skeptics of the Russia story favor wild claims, such as the notion that a download, in the Eastern Time Zone, of stolen documents that were not among the key leaked documents by itself rules out Russian involvement.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:16 PM on January 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


I should add, on a more serious note, though, that Cobb's suggestion that seeking to interview Trump amounts to a perjury trap seems somewhat likely. Trump is incapable of conducting an interview without digressions, many of which are lies or, at the very least, bullshit.

Letting him open his mouth under oath almost guarantees that he will give some kind of statement that blatantly contradicts facts. How do you deal with that, on either side of the table?
posted by uncleozzy at 1:17 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


NYT, Jonathan Martin, Manchin Will Seek Re-Election but Sends Democrats a Stern Warning
Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia told colleagues on Tuesday that he intended to run for re-election this year after all, ending an anxiety-making flirtation with retirement and easing Democratic fears that the most conservative Democrat in the Senate was about to effectively hand his seat to a Republican.

In an interview, Mr. Manchin said he repeatedly expressed his frustration to Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, and other colleagues, telling them that “this place sucks,” before finally signaling Tuesday morning to Mr. Schumer’s aides that he would file his re-election paperwork before West Virginia’s deadline on Friday.

“I was very vocal,” Mr. Manchin said, adding, “they read between the lines.”
posted by zachlipton at 1:20 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


The best antidote to fear, she says, is to create a new social safety net where freelancers can rely on each other. Horowitz says she hopes that the tens of millions of freelancers will take their concerns to the polls, and that elected officials will push for plans to rethink the social safety net.

It's worth noting that business that use contractors are privatizing the profits of not paying pensions, health care, or expenses, while socializing the risks of doing the same, so it's absolutely right and proper that they pay their fair share of the public safety net that they're shredding in the private sector.
posted by Gelatin at 1:20 PM on January 23, 2018 [35 favorites]


> Marcy Wheeler's rather unfortunately-titled but still worthwhile column at The New Republic, "All Glenn Greenwald’s Women" may be instructive as an antidote/compliment to the recent New York Magazine profile of the same.

I was actually going to post this as an FPP. Here's some more context from Wheeler's blog about her relationship with The Intercept.

I discovered Wheeler and Greenwald around the same time period, and it's been very interesting to watch the trajectories of their careers diverge. Even if you set aside Greenwald's... blind spot, let's say... on Russia, and just focus on the quality of his work, I don't see how anyone can dispute that the quality of his analysis and the effort he puts into his work has gone downhill since his days of blogging at his Unclaimed Territory blog, and later at Salon.

Yet somehow he takes home half a million a year and has achieved a "public intellectual" status that Wheeler has done far more to earn. He was considered by The Intercept to be a "journalist", while Wheeler was just a "blogger." Yet she puts far more effort into her work, and seems to follow the evidence wherever it leads, while Greenwald seems to work backwards from his worldview.

If you're not reading Wheeler's blog, you should. If you're reading Greenwald, you should stop, and read Wheeler instead.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:22 PM on January 23, 2018 [53 favorites]


If you're not reading Wheeler's blog, you should.

She's also a must-follow on Twitter.
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:25 PM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


“I was very vocal,” Mr. Manchin said, adding, “they read between the lines.”

What's his fucking problem?

Also, no idea of her chances, but his primary opponent looks great by comparison.
posted by Artw at 1:27 PM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


The most glaring example of unhelpful sensationalism, which virtually all sides contribute to, pertains to the Christopher Steele dossier... its more mundane reports of meetings between Trump officials and Russians to coordinate on the election have yet been publicly corroborated in their specifics.

This is strange framing. It feels like it was worded very carefully to imply a conclusion that isn't warranted. I don't think it's fair to dismiss the entire report because the "specifics" of "coordination on the election" haven't been publicly verified. It makes me question the author's motives.

Democrats made—and still make—the dossier the centerpiece of their grand narrative about Trump...

This is questionable framing even if you accept the premise, which I don't.
posted by diogenes at 1:30 PM on January 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


Even back in the day, before he went all in for Russia, Greenwald's attempts to paint Anwar al-Awlaki as completely saintlike and blameless always struck me as more propagandizing than journalism.
posted by Artw at 1:34 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Greenwald’s training is in advocacy, not journalism.
posted by notyou at 1:37 PM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump's attorneys have crafted some negotiating terms for the president's interview with Mueller's team

I have to say, I don't get this at all (mostly because IANAL and have no understanding of investigations of this scope and authority). Striking a plea deal with a county prosecutor for the gas station burglary you committed? OK. But telling the Director of FBI how it's gonna go, in a case of obstruction—and possibly worse—by a sitting president? I just don't see that ending well. They tell you how it's gonna go, and you pray to the god of racist orange tumbleweeds that they don't change their mind halfway through. Or so I'd think.

What does Trump's legal team see as the cards they're holding here? Trump can fire Mueller, yes, but that... wouldn't look good. Neither would playing hardball (it might provoke Mueller to do the same), or pleading the fifth (for reasons we've discussed here already).
posted by Rykey at 1:41 PM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


“I was very vocal,” Mr. Manchin said, adding, “they read between the lines.”

What's his fucking problem?



Well, he’s a Democratic Senator up for re-election in a state that voted for Trump 68.7% to 26.5%, the largest margin of ANY state in the nation.

He’s basically an endangered unicorn.
posted by darkstar at 1:45 PM on January 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


This is strange framing. It feels like it was worded very carefully to imply a conclusion that isn't warranted. I don't think it's fair to dismiss the entire report because the "specifics" of "coordination on the election" haven't been publicly verified. It makes me question the author's motives.

The thrust of the piece is not overweeningly skeptical of the Russia story in the mode of Greenwald, only of the importance of the Steele dossier given the better evidence which is currently on the record.

Even back in the day, before he went all in for Russia, Greenwald's attempts to paint Anwar al-Awlaki as completely saintlike and blameless always struck me as more propagandizing than journalism.

Despite his usual overbearing tone, he was right to be mad about the US government's killing a US citizen without due process, much as he was right to be mad about that government's assassination programs more generally. Awlaki was a ghoul, but the flimsy legal justification for his killing now justifies whatever killing might be undertaken by Donald Trump or any other Republican who takes the White House.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 1:50 PM on January 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


Yeah I think Greenwald has fallen from the true path, but his absolute and unwavering denunciation of the murder of US citizens by the CIA on nothing but presidential whim still seems totally spot on to me. I thought so back when it happened and now in the Age of Trump it seems especially relevant.

That Trump has not, yet and that we are permitted to know of, ordered hits on US citizens by the CIA proves only that he doesn't know he has that power.
posted by sotonohito at 1:55 PM on January 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


The thrust of the piece is not overweeningly skeptical of the Russia story in the mode of Greenwald, only of the importance of the Steele dossier given the better evidence which is currently on the record.

Of course there's better evidence. It's 18 months later and we're many months into a federal investigation. You can say that without casting doubt about the veracity of the dossier and claiming that the dossier is the "centerpiece" of Democrat's concerns about Trump/Russia.
posted by diogenes at 1:57 PM on January 23, 2018 [16 favorites]




Greenwald is just a troll at this point. Even if he thinks there is no collusion or malfeasance on the part of Trump and his campaign, it's incontrovertible that Russia conducted an intelligence operation against the American electoral system, but Glenn is muddying the waters and helping Tucker Carlson portray it as one big witch hunt.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:13 PM on January 23, 2018 [40 favorites]


Trump's attorneys have crafted some negotiating terms for the president's interview with Mueller's team.

Legal eagle (Federal prosecutor, District Court clerk, Stanford Law Pro Bono Dir/Lecturer) Elizabeth de la Vega: Folks: WaPo piece about Mueller seeking to question DJT is a deliberate leak from two Trump team people. They're trying to make "perjury trap" a household term to pave the way for DJT to attempt to answer questions in writing or justify DJT's ultimate refusal to be interviewed.

She promises more explanation & analysis to come later today.
posted by scalefree at 2:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [84 favorites]


This Gallup chart on the shift in views on immigration by party is amazing.

@BrendanNyhan: Consistent with the @MattGrossmann hypothesis that Trump is changing the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party
posted by zachlipton at 2:17 PM on January 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


I know one way to avoid a perjury trap. Don't commit perjury! I understand that nuance is lost on Donald Trump, noted liar. The only way Mueller is ever going to interview Trump is with a subpoena. Even Trump's B team lawyers aren't that stupid?
posted by Justinian at 2:18 PM on January 23, 2018 [38 favorites]


Trump's attorneys have crafted some negotiating terms for the president's interview with Mueller's team.
re: de la Vega's tweet. Then his team continue to sound like they are idiots.
posted by rc3spencer at 2:19 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


I know one way to avoid a perjury trap. Don't commit perjury! I understand that nuance is lost on Donald Trump, noted liar. The only way Mueller is ever going to interview Trump is with a subpoena. Even Trump's B team lawyers aren't that stupid?

They aren't, so they're using the media to sell their spin on reality, like Trump does directly through Twitter, and most of the GOP do however they can. Throw out shiny bits, undermine the credibility of the investigation, "but Hillary!" and anything else that can reduce the impact of Mueller's investigation and what will be Trump's own words.
posted by filthy light thief at 2:23 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


I know one way to avoid a perjury trap. Don't commit perjury! I understand that nuance is lost on Donald Trump, noted liar. The only way Mueller is ever going to interview Trump is with a subpoena. Even Trump's B team lawyers aren't that stupid?

I have a friend who was a District Attorney (now retired). She told me that Trump must have a tea of truly stupid lawyers, as he just can't keep his mouth, or his tiny tweeting fingers, shut. She couldn't believe nobody forced him to delete his Twitter. "You do not tweet birthday wishes to Ivanka. You do not tweet cat pictures. You stay the hell off social media!"

Speaking of people who can't keep their mouths shut, remember Simona Mangiante, fiancee of erstwhile coffee boy George Papadopoulos? She's saying Papadopoulos is the "John Dean" of the current investigation (Rosalind Helderman, Washington Post).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 2:26 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


At this point for Trump to delete his Twitter account would be tantamount to putting on a big nametag that just says "COGNIZANCE OF GUILT".
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:36 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


She couldn't believe nobody forced him to delete his Twitter.

Has she read the Wolff book? The Klownwig don't work that way. Imagine a phone menu system with a robot voice that kept you punching buttons to go in circles all day. Then replace the calm, measured, upbeat, synthetic female voice with a horridly nasal, shouting, vulgar man-baby screech.

Now dial that number first thing every morning and stay on the line all day. Helpfully, due to recent twitter activity, our menu options have changed. Why the hell aren't you doing something about it?! This is the world of the West Wing today. It is not normal. It is a significant danger to all things. Alert. Alert. Danger random journalist! Failure in progress.
posted by petebest at 2:37 PM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yeah, I'm not convinced its "stupid lawyers" --- Trump doesn't listen to anyone. I assume he's been given the advice but simply ignored it like everything else.

That said, I assume the most competent lawyers have quit because having Trump as a client must be awful. (On the other hand, there will always be lawyers who will put up with it for enough money).
posted by thefoxgod at 2:40 PM on January 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Is the idea that Trump will at some point be sitting at the defendant's table inside of a courtroom? Because...I'm not sure anybody has really laid the groundwork for that.
posted by rhizome at 2:44 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Speaking of people who can't keep their mouths shut, remember Simona Mangiante, fiancee of erstwhile coffee boy George Papadopoulos? She's saying Papadopoulos is the "John Dean" of the current investigation (Rosalind Helderman, Washington Post).

The John Dean? I wonder if the FBI have already dubbed anyone on the Trump Team the "master manipulator of the cover-up," as they did with dean and Watergate. Somehow I don't think it's Papadopoulos.
posted by filthy light thief at 2:45 PM on January 23, 2018


On the other hand, there will always be lawyers who will put up with it for enough money

Except he won't pay them, either. No decent lawyers will take for a client someone who neither listens to legal advice nor pays their bills on time. Plus, taking Trump for a client will taint that firm's reputation for a very long time.

Trump has crappy lawyers because Trump is a crappy client.
posted by suelac at 2:47 PM on January 23, 2018 [40 favorites]


That said, I assume the most competent lawyers have quit because having Trump as a client must be awful. (On the other hand, there will always be lawyers who will put up with it for enough money).

Considering that Trump is notorious for stiffing contractors and anyone who works for him, if he can't get good lawyers it's because they are afraid of not getting paid. I doubt there's very many good lawyers (as opposed to publicity hounds or just desperate people) who want to risk not getting paid.

Or what Suelac just said. He won't listen to his lawyers and he won't pay them either. No lawyer wants a client like that. He's got to be the poster child for nightmare clients.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 2:50 PM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Yet somehow he takes home half a million a year and has achieved a "public intellectual" status that Wheeler has done far more to earn.

Citizenfour was eye-opening in this regard; it opens with Glenn Greenwald initially losing the Snowden story because he couldn't work encrypted email, and Laura Poitras could. She was in the room with Greenwald interviewing Snowden the entire time. It was her story. Greenwald got all the credit.
posted by Merus at 2:56 PM on January 23, 2018 [71 favorites]


If anyone needs a list of major companies who aren't singing the praises of the GOP Tax Scam as a way to hire more stoic Americans, you can probably put Kimberly-Clark at the top: Kimberly-Clark Announces Layoffs, Along With $3.3 Billion In Operating Profit
Kimberly-Clark plans to cut up to 5,500 jobs — about 13 percent of its workforce — and get rid of 10 manufacturing plants, releasing a restructuring plan along with its year-end results that showed net sales rose to $18.3 billion, up slightly from 2016.

The maker of popular brands such as Kleenex, Huggies and Kotex, Kimberly-Clark says its operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2017 was $812 million — a drop from $839 million in 2016. For all of 2017, the company is reporting nearly $3.3 billion in operating profit, down slightly from 2016.

Chairman and CEO Thomas J. Falk cited "a challenging environment" in a company statement about its layoff plans. Kimberly-Clark says it will close or sell about 10 manufacturing facilities and expand production capacity at several other sites.

"The company says the restructuring program could save up to $550 million," NPR's Adelina Lancianese reports for NPR's Newscast unit. "Personal care companies are struggling as stores compete with online retailers by offering discounts or creating their own private label products. Proctor & Gamble also announced that its grooming sector has been hit hard by store discounts."
But wait, where's the tax cut reference? Right here:
The CFO of Kimberly-Clark just said on a conference call that the tax cuts "provides us the flexibility" to pay for the "restructuring" plan. In other words, the tax cut is funding the job cuts.
-- Nathan Bomey (@NathanBomey) January 23, 2018 (tweet)
Let's pretend that the savings came down to 20% savings related to 10 fewer manufacturing plants, and 80% due to 5,500 fewer jobs - that's $11 million per plant, and an $80k saving per person -- and just a one-time savings, again, speaking very simplistically. And assuming that doesn't impact their productivity or sales, a one-time bump of 16.7% in profits.
posted by filthy light thief at 3:00 PM on January 23, 2018 [30 favorites]


Another thing we need to change when we get a majority again: there is no way the President should have the power to unilaterally impose tariffs.

The reporting on the tariffs has been pretty terrible because they're complicated and lazy reporting is easy, plus since everyone hates Trump it's easy to read too much into them. More importantly, because candidate Trump talked about ending free trade the press is doing a great job at valorizing these boring and mostly uncontroversial tariffs and normalizing this idiot president by making this a win for him. (For laughs, it's useful to look back at the right's outrage on Obama's similar tariffs on Chinese solar panels because crony-capitalism-solyndra-socialism, but still not tough enough on China).

Trump's tariffs on solar panels and washing machines follow the recommendations of the commissioners of the independent, bipartisan US International Trade Commission. There are four USITC commissioners, two democrats and two republicans, all appointed by Obama and Bush. There are two vacant seats on the commission; Trump has made one nomination, a renomination of a democrat first nominated by Obama in Dec 2016 who remains unconfirmed by the senate.

For the washing machine tariff, the commission determined by a 4-0 vote that "that large residential washers are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities as to be a substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic industry". All four commissioners recommend(pdf) the 50% above 1.2 million unit quota tariff. Two commissioners (both D, one appointed by Obama and the other by Bush) recommended the 20% in-quota tariff while the other two commissioners recommendations no in-quota tariff. Trump went with the higher recommendation.

For the solar panel tariff, again by a 4-0 vote the ITC commissioners found "that increased imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells... are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities as to be a substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic industry." Trump's enacted tariffs are closest to the recommendations(pdf) of two commissioners (one D Bush appointee, one R Obama appointee) who recommend the same tariff rates, but a much lower 1 gigawatt quota. The other D commissioner recommended tariffs that start the same but decline less over time and an even lower .5 GW quota, and the other R commissioner recommended a five year long cap and trade program with a 8.9 GW quota and for the government to sell import licenses for volumes above that number. Besides the oddball cap and trade plan, Trump's remedy is weaker than the any of ITC's recommendations.

So for both tariff actions, Trump's tariffs are within the recommendations of independent, bipartisan experts who are acting within their legal mandate. But he didn't have to, it looks like he broad powers to enact any remedy after the ITC's findings of "serious injury" under Section 201, he could have done nothing or imposed much harsher tariffs. The only place where Trump may have exceeded the ITC recommendations is in applying these tariffs to our NAFTA and CAFTA partners (and I assume this can be challenged), and the ITC recommended excluding South Korea washing machines from tariffs but I believe I read somewhere they were included (sorry LG and Kenmore), but I can't verify this because all the reporting is mostly detail-free Trumpbait.

Anyway, now that industries that would like protective trade restrictions see that they have an ally in the White House, will there be more ITC and Department of Commerce trade actions? Sure, but so far there's no sign that the institutional rails have come off; these are not the first acts of President Smoot-Hawley. This is being reported as a "promises kept" moment only because the bar has been set so low.
posted by peeedro at 3:01 PM on January 23, 2018 [54 favorites]


Thank you, peeedro; I'd wondered where the tariffs came from. On the one hand, less solar = more coal, right? So maybe that was a nod to his "bring the coal industry back to its former glory" contingent. On the other... washing machines? And since when does he care about imports? (He cares to babble about imports, but he doesn't want any of his companies having to pay higher prices for anything.) And there'd been no news about him hating solar specifically, nor about how Chinese washing machines were ruining American clothes or anything like that.

Hearing that it's basically gov't-as-usual, small committee doing their small-committee job and the president basically rubber-stamping it because it's beyond his comprehension to adjust, makes a lot more sense.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:06 PM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]




less solar != more coal, because coal's still got less going for it every year. It's good for gas, nuclear and wind.
posted by Merus at 3:11 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Do not try to confuse the narrative with facts. Trump is pro-coal, and he wants his fanatics loyal supporters, those hard-working coal farmers, to know that he's doing everything in his power to put them back in their rightful, historical place at the top of the industry's status-pyramid, and he would be doing so much more if it weren't for all those meddling Democrats who hate America.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


It's been a year since I investigated laundry machines but LG and Samsung were the top-rated brands last February, and they were typically more expensive than domestic brands. Maybe the reason we're importing more is because they make better products? I'm not sure how a tariff addresses that problem. Glad I bought my Samsungs already though (they work great!).
posted by SpaceBass at 3:15 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


Do not try to confuse the narrative with facts. Trump is pro-coal, and he wants his fanatics loyal supporters, those hard-working coal farmers, to know that he's doing everything in his power to put them back in their rightful, historical place at the top of the industry's status-pyramid, and he would be doing so much more if it weren't for all those meddling Democrats who hate America.

I have no doubt that ITC trade experts recommended these tariffs for real economic reasons but Trump's following through on them was all about spite & bile. In his mind Solar is the opposite of Coal so it has to be attacked. It's also one of the hated Obama's causes, more reason to attack it. The panels come from Chai-nah, even more reason. And like all renewable energy sources it helps mitigate the Great Chinese Hoax of climate change, enemy of industry. Trump's verdict: solar power must die!
posted by scalefree at 3:23 PM on January 23, 2018




less solar != more coal

I wouldn't count on less solar, Bloomberg's projections show that because solar panel prices are falling so fast and that the solar module is only 25-30 percent of installation cost, that the new tariffs will add enough to make new solar installations cost less than 2016 installations. 2016 was a good year for solar.
posted by peeedro at 3:26 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


I think the Kimberly-Clark story link in filthy light thief's comment was meant to be this NPR one?

The current link goes to a USA Today story about Florida and voting rights for felons.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 3:28 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Biden: McConnell stopped Obama from calling out Russians
By EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE in Politico
Joe Biden said Tuesday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stopped the Obama administration from speaking out about Russian interference in the 2016 campaign by refusing to sign on to a bipartisan statement of condemnation.

That moment, the former Democratic vice president said, made him think “the die had been cast ... this was all about the political play.”
posted by HE Amb. T. S. L. DuVal at 3:29 PM on January 23, 2018 [54 favorites]


I... do not want Senator Duckworth to miss 12 weeks of Senate votes, starting sometime in April. This makes me nervous.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:38 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


I... do not want Senator Duckworth to miss 12 weeks of Senate votes, starting sometime in April. This makes me nervous.

Is there a legal reason senators can't proxy their votes, or is it just custom?
posted by corb at 3:45 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


While I understand the concern, that kind of thinking is also part of the reason that she's the first of the 1,971 people who have served in the Senate to give birth, and Senators have been absent for illnesses and other necessities of life. I don't know where 12 weeks this time came from either.
posted by zachlipton at 3:47 PM on January 23, 2018 [32 favorites]


Duckworth took 12 weeks of paid maternity leave in 2014-’15, according to Roll Call, the same amount she offers her staff.

Fairly standard amount of leave to take for maternity. Political considerations aside, I think it's excellent that we can have a senator lead by example and take maternity leave. It's important for the family, and sets a standard that expectant women should receive sufficient family leave.
posted by Existential Dread at 3:51 PM on January 23, 2018 [28 favorites]




You may be nervous, but there's nothing you can do about it.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:51 PM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


(By which I mean, she's given no indication she wouldn't get herself to the Senate chamber at any point if her vote was utterly crucial. She deserves maternity leave; and absent some evidence otherwise, I think we ought to trust she will handle it the same way other Senators have handled absences.)
posted by zachlipton at 3:57 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


There is no proxy voting in the Senate nor the House. (On the main floor. There's some form of it for committees.) And I'm not sure I'd want it - seems it'd work against progressives as much as it might help.

I don't want Sen. Duckworth to reduce her parental leave time; I'm just apprehensive about it.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:58 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


We must be getting near the end if The Writers are pulling out tired tropes like adding a baby to the show.

Seriously, though, the way this past year has gone I fully expect her to give birth on the floor while casting the deciding impeachment vote.
posted by Freon at 4:00 PM on January 23, 2018 [61 favorites]


Hey, I just want to point out: This is a woman who has survived incredible injuries in combat and never let it stop her.

She literally smuggled a cellphone into the House chamber in her artificial leg during a protest sit-in.

If the Senate needs Tammy Duckworth for a vote, Tammy Duckworth will fucking be there.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:02 PM on January 23, 2018 [137 favorites]


Legal eagle (Federal prosecutor, District Court clerk, Stanford Law Pro Bono Dir/Lecturer) Elizabeth de la Vega: Folks: WaPo piece about Mueller seeking to question DJT is a deliberate leak from two Trump team people. They're trying to make "perjury trap" a household term to pave the way for DJT to attempt to answer questions in writing or justify DJT's ultimate refusal to be interviewed.

Our country is so drenched in football team politics that not requiring Trump to testify because he'll be guilty of something if he lies is supposedly a valid point of political contention.
posted by Talez at 4:09 PM on January 23, 2018 [36 favorites]


There is no proxy voting in the Senate nor the House. (On the main floor. There's some form of it for committees.) And I'm not sure I'd want it - seems it'd work against progressives as much as it might help.

This is a thing that's been documented happening informally at the state level in more than one state. It makes me wonder what controls there are against it happening in the House & Senate.
posted by scalefree at 4:25 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Legal eagle (Federal prosecutor, District Court clerk, Stanford Law Pro Bono Dir/Lecturer) Elizabeth de la Vega:

OOH! I remember her great book which laid out the indictment of Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Powell, et. al. for violating 18 USC 371 and 18 USC 1001.

Tomgram: Elizabeth de la Vega, Indicting Bush

I didn't know she was still writing. I don't know why she wouldn't so I'm glad for these links to her work.
posted by mikelieman at 4:46 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


I've watched a few of the recent Senate votes - it'd be pretty hard to proxy, since for the roll call votes, they read out a name and count the yes/no vote with the answer. I could imagine problems in the House; I haven't watched many of those. But for Senate votes, everyone can see & hear exactly who voted for what.

I know some states have a "push a button" vote, and those who aren't in the room wind up with their neighbors voting for them, but that's not possible in the US Senate.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:49 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Unless the vote were to happen literally as she gives birth, Senator Duckworth will absolutely be able to attend if it were crucial. 12 weeks maternity leave doesn’t mean she’s going to sit anything out if her vote is necessary, partners and nannies exist, even for newborns. (I sat in a shareholder’s meeting when my son was less than two weeks old).

I’m so happy for her. She can show that draft-dodger how to be a responsible vet, a responsible politician, and a responsible parent. Congratulations, Senator!
posted by lydhre at 4:54 PM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


I... do not want Senator Duckworth to miss 12 weeks of Senate votes, starting sometime in April. This makes me nervous.

I would be tickled pink if Sen. Duckworth nursed on the Senate floor.
posted by mikelieman at 4:56 PM on January 23, 2018 [59 favorites]


WaPo, Trump asked the acting FBI director whom he voted for during Oval Office meeting
Shortly after President Trump fired his FBI director in May, he summoned to the Oval Office the bureau's acting director for a get-to-know-you meeting.

The two men exchanged pleasantries, but before long, Trump, according to several current and former U.S. officials, asked Andrew McCabe a pointed question: Whom did he vote for in the 2016 election?

McCabe said he didn't vote, according to the officials, who like others interviewed for this article requested anonymity to speak candidly about a sensitive matter.

Trump, the officials said, also vented his anger at McCabe over the several hundred thousand dollars in donations his wife, a Democrat, received for her failed 2015 Virginia state Senate bid from a political action committee controlled by a close friend of Hillary Clinton.
Also in this story, Dana Boente is back (we're just recycling characters now), selected as the FBI's General Counsel.
posted by zachlipton at 4:58 PM on January 23, 2018 [32 favorites]


Women are ready to rain down fire and fury on Trump (Dana Milbank / WaPo)
As hundreds of thousands of women took to the streets on Saturday to vent their discontent with President Trump’s first year in office, the president, who is supported by just 29 percent of women, did what he does best. He played the troll.

“Beautiful weather all over our great country, a perfect day for all Women to March,” he tweeted, instructing women to “get out there to celebrate the historic milestones” of his presidency.

If there is another Women’s March a year from now, Trump may indeed get his wish to see women celebrating. It took some time to build, but the women’s backlash against Trump is ready to rain some fire and fury on him.

In addition to marching, women are running — for office — at a pace that is on course to shatter records. The Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University reports that 49 women are either running or planning to run for the Senate this year (previous record: 40), 389 for the House (previous record: 298) and 79 for governorships (previous record: 34 in 1994). The vast majority are Democrats.

... The new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Democrats with a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage among women going into November’s midterm elections, twice the advantage Clinton had in 2016. Likewise, December’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that women favored Democratic control of Congress by 20 points — 32 points among college-educated women. ...

Years ago, in a long line of misogynistic comments, Trump proclaimed that criticism doesn’t matter, “as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.” It’s entirely fitting that this man has sparked a mass movement of women poised to deliver a kick to his.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:59 PM on January 23, 2018 [45 favorites]


And another one gone, and another one gone, another one bites the dust!
Felix Sater subpoenaed; Newly cooperative in New York money laundering case against Trump’s Kazakh business associates.
Trump, I'm gonna get you too, another one bites the dust!
posted by scalefree at 5:07 PM on January 23, 2018 [52 favorites]


Unless the vote were to happen literally as she gives birth, Senator Duckworth will absolutely be able to attend if it were crucial.

Hell, even then.

McConnell: What's that? Senator Duckworth is pregnant? Send her my congratulations! *pauses, grabs his calendar* Do you know when she's due to deliver?

Schumer: Sure do. She told me to let you know exactly when she's ready to become the first Senator to give birth in chambers during session.

McConnell: Um... yeah... *puts calendar away*
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:07 PM on January 23, 2018 [27 favorites]


Team Mueller is flippin' fools like flapjacks.
posted by tonycpsu at 5:09 PM on January 23, 2018 [28 favorites]


"This is a woman who has survived incredible injuries in combat and never let it stop her."

When she was rehabbing at Walter Reed from losing both legs and having one arm completely shredded, as one of her "functional goals" for her rehab, she chose, "Be able to put my hair up in a ponytail myself." It was one of those tiny moments where I was like, "Aw, representation matters!" because if I had a seriously injured arm, regaining ponytail ability would be tip-top of my list as well!

I'm really excited for her. She and her husband had a tough time getting pregnant the first time (and this time too, apparently), and these are very wanted babies. I met her once or twice early in her political career, and I'm pleased for them.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:31 PM on January 23, 2018 [64 favorites]


"Be able to put my hair up in a ponytail myself."

I'm over 50 with two types of arthritis. This is a praiseworthy goal. Really brings home the message, "There's real issues, and the rest is small-stuff. Don't sweat the small stuff. )
posted by mikelieman at 5:35 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Intercept has a really good longform about the failures of the DCCC, past and present.
“The Democratic and Republican parties are commercial enterprises and they’re very much interested in their own survival,” Lynch said. “The money race is probably more important to them than the issues race in some cases.”

The Intercept asked Lynch if the commercialization he referred to was for the benefit of the officials working in and around elections. “How much of the focus on fundraising,” we asked, “has to do with pumping money into this ecosystem of consultants and everybody else?”

“That’s what I mean,” Lynch said. “It’s a commercial enterprise.”
...
In order to establish whether a person is worthy of official backing, DCCC operatives will “rolodex” a candidate, according to a source familiar with the procedure. On the most basic level, it involves candidates being asked to pull out their smartphones, scroll through their contacts lists, and add up the amount of money their contacts could raise or contribute to their campaigns. If the candidates’ contacts aren’t good for at least $250,000, or in some cases much more, they fail the test, and party support goes elsewhere.
...

"The DCCC needs to listen to people. Just because you can stroke a check for $100,000 doesn’t mean you’re the best candidate,” she said. “EMILY’s List gave me some consultants to hire, but I’m a public school teacher. I can’t afford to hire anybody.”
...
James Thompson, who lost a close special election in Kansas and is again running for the Wichita seat in 2018, said the DCCC is specific about why it wants candidates to raise money. “They want you to spend a certain amount of money on consultants, and it’s their list of consultants you have to choose from,” he said. Those consultants tend to be DCCC veterans. A memo the party committee sent to candidates in December lays out some of the demands the DCCC made around spending.
...
But the increased party primary meddling in races in other parts of the country has come at a time when the DCCC is increasingly wedded to congressional moderates. In somewhat of a reprisal of the Emanuel strategy, the DCCC is leaning on business-friendly Democrats to take back the House.

For the first time since 2006, the Blue Dog Coalition, the right-leaning Democratic group that prides itself on promoting socially conservative, business-friendly lawmakers, has worked with the DCCC to select the party’s candidates for the 2018 midterms.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 5:35 PM on January 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


> Team Mueller is flippin' fools like flapjacks.
We all hoped for Muellermas, but Shrove Tuesday is coming up February 13th, and National Pancake Day is March 4th...
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 5:42 PM on January 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


The Gazette (Cedar Rapids), Ernst sees Trump opposition to NAFTA softening
Ernst, who was among a group of GOP senators who met with the president to discuss NAFTA before Christmas, said Trump was under the impression they wanted him to pull out of the agreement with the countries that are the United States’ and Iowa’s largest trading partners.

However, when Trump polled everyone at the meeting, Ernst said only U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer supported withdrawing from NAFTA.

None of the farm state senators in the room advised him to end the deal that has been under renegotiation for months.

“He was surprised (because of) all these little birds chirping in his ear about how bad NAFTA is,” she told the corn growers association.
Trump is so busy fucking up NAFTA, he's surprised to learn about the positions of those in his own party.
posted by zachlipton at 5:55 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Intercept has a really good longform about the failures of the DCCC, past and present.

I don't trust the motives of The Intercept. I think they are trying to fracture the left.
posted by diogenes at 5:56 PM on January 23, 2018 [55 favorites]


For the first time since 2006, the Blue Dog Coalition, the right-leaning Democratic group that prides itself on promoting socially conservative, business-friendly lawmakers, has worked with the DCCC to select the party’s candidates for the 2018 midterms.

The new collaboration is a stunning reversal for a party that has seen a groundswell of support for progressive ideas


Yes, it's a stunning reversal from the days of losing thousands of seats in state and federal legislature even while capturing the Presidency handily. You know what else happened in 2006, the last time they worked together? The Democrats flipped 31 House and 5 Senate seats. Another way to phrase what the Intercept said is "they're going back to what actually managed to occasionally win non-Presidential elections."

The Intercept is being deliberately obtuse and implying that the DCCC is selecting moderate Democrats for these races instead of progressive Democrats. But what's really happening is mostly that they're going to run moderate Democrats instead of letting the Rs run unopposed or against fringe nobodies.

But it's the Intercept so I guess this is to be expected.
posted by Justinian at 5:57 PM on January 23, 2018 [64 favorites]


To begin with, President Trump has been inconsistent on what kind of immigration bill he would sign, despite an insistence otherwise from White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Monday.

I'm a day behind reading the thread so apologies if this has been addressed. My question is, if a bipartisan immigration bill (I know, bear with me) has been passed by Congress and sent to Trump for signing, do people (politicians, staff, general public) think he won't sign it? All this behind the scenes maneuvering to feel him out is a waste of time. It's been shown that he will back down when confronted directly. Refusing to sign a bill puts the onus on him. I say, call his bluff.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 5:59 PM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yeah, I have some Canadian sources in my feeds and they're certainly covering closely the ongoing NAFTA talks since they're a huge fucking deal for the North American economy but I haven't seen a peep out of the US media.

Does this mean that NAFTA will end up being a relatively better deal for Mexico and Canada since they actually have competent trade negotiators and governments? Or is Team Trump up to shitty stupid things that will blow up our continent's economy?

TIME WILL TELL.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:01 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


While I understand the concern, that kind of thinking is also part of the reason that she's the first of the 1,971 people who have served in the Senate to give birth

Thisthisthisthis. Also: BIRTH! In a male-dominated, aged place like the Senate (which has never had more than 20% female representation), birth. I know that life and death literally hangs in the balance of the Senate (ugh, do I know) but that to me is important. I'm reminded of the story of some famous feminist (I can't recall who it was) who had her period and bled through her dress while on stage doing some panel on which she was the only woman, and when it was pointed out to her, said oh well, it's probably the realest thing that has ever happened here.
posted by sunset in snow country at 6:02 PM on January 23, 2018 [34 favorites]


> I don't trust the motives of The Intercept. I think they are trying to fracture the left.

I don't either, and it's got lying hack Lee Fang as a co-author*, but it looks like a pretty well-sourced story with some pretty damning comments from folks who've been jerked around by the party leadership. Jess King looks like a fantastic candidate, and if the report is accurate about how she's being muscled out, that's very damning.

* I really liked Ryan Grim's reporting at HuffPo, and wasn't aware he'd jumped over to The Intercept. Perhaps they've got him working with Fang to try to appeal to people who occasionally do some fact-checking.

posted by tonycpsu at 6:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


CFPB Drops Investigation Into Payday Lender That Contributed To Mick Mulvaney's Campaigns
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:24 PM on January 23 [15 favorites +] [!]


Payday lender World Acceptance Corporation announced in a press release Monday that it received a letter from the CFPB stating that the financial watchdog had closed its nearly four-year investigation into the company’s marketing and lending practices. The company, which is headquartered in South Carolina, has given at least $4,500 in campaign donations to Mulvaney, who represented South Carolina in the House for six years before becoming President Donald Trump’s budget director last year.

Wow, a mere $4,500 to drop a four-year investigation. What a bargain! That's likely the amount of revenues they make in a matter of minutes.
posted by hexaflexagon at 6:20 PM on January 23, 2018 [18 favorites]


Wow, a mere $4,500 to drop a four-year investigation. What a bargain! That's likely the amount of revenues they make in a matter of minutes.

The Koch toads only paid half a million to Ryan for billions in tax breaks.
posted by Talez at 6:41 PM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Okay I have a plan - we Kickstarter people who go around to all the agencies and whatnot, and get them to advocate on our behalf! We'd tell them what to put in the legislation or budget or whatever! It's genius!

For the first time since 2006, the Blue Dog Coalition, the right-leaning Democratic group that prides itself on promoting socially conservative, business-friendly lawmakers, has worked with the DCCC to select the party’s candidates for the 2018 midterms.

Socially conservative - what does that even mean in 2018? I think it means "No".
posted by petebest at 7:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


ELECTION RESULT

Dem HOLD in Pennsylvania HD-35, 73-26. This is a Dem overperformance by 29 points compared to the 2016 presidential margin.

The Dem won 83 of 84 precincts!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:14 PM on January 23, 2018 [89 favorites]


Well, it seems like the base is up for this whole "voting" thing.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:31 PM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


I think that there are areas where a more conservative Democrat is the kind of Democrat who has a chance of winning elections. California doesn't need Blue Dogs, but that might be the only kind of Dem who will win in, say, West Virginia.

And it also depends on the scale of the office. Senators have to appeal to more constituents than city council members. I bet you anything we can field very liberal Democrats for local offices in college towns or areas where whites are a minority. There might be room for DSA people to get a toe in the door on city councils and state assemblies, if they can speak "Economic Firebrand." We absolutely, positively, need a 50-state strategy and that is going to mean some more conservative Dems, as long as they agree to vote with the party line. Strength in numbers.

What I don't like is if organizations like the DCCC start to kneecap promising Democratic candidates because they don't have enough of a large donor base. Beto O'Rourke, for instance, is running a very good grassroots campaign (though I don't know if he has any big donors or not) and is focused on meeting people and getting out the vote.

I think maybe the question is, can potential Democratic candidates for office do it without the DCCC's blessing? And is the DCCC going to try and squelch "outsider" candidates and boost "electable" candidates who really aren't that appealing, and don't inspire people to vote, but hey, the donors love them? I hope not, because I think that would be bad for Democrats in the long run. Dems put in the position of pleasing both donors and voters have a finer needle to thread than GOPers who just have to please donors and fool voters by using culturally conservative rhetoric and all kinds of -ist dog whistles.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:33 PM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


Does this mean that NAFTA will end up being a relatively better deal for Mexico and Canada since they actually have competent trade negotiators and governments? Or is Team Trump up to shitty stupid things that will blow up our continent's economy?

From the Mexico side of things, commentators and former government officials aren't very optimistic. The general view is that Trump has positioned NAFTA in a way that signals the eventual death of the treaty. It has become another issue that Republicans can contest; another button that can be pushed to humiliate Mexico and gain favor with the base.

It won't disappear overnight, but it could turn into a situation where the treaty has to be re-certified every couple of years. Something which would completely defeat one of it's core purposes: create market stability between the three countries. If it comes to that, there probably won't be any incentive longterm to keep it.
posted by Omon Ra at 7:35 PM on January 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


Politico, Kyle Cheney, GOP escalates law enforcement probes as Russia inquiry heats up:
Separately, a GOP lawmaker on the House Judiciary Committee indicated that there were plans to recall Comey to testify about his handling of the 2016 investigation into Hillary Clinton.
...
In one exchange, Strzok and Page indicated that the Justice Department and FBI knew Clinton would escape charges in the investigation of her handling of classified information even before the FBI interviewed her.

In an interview, Ratcliffe said that exchange, among others, called into question Comey’s testimony before the committee in September 2016, when he said the bureau didn’t decide against prosecuting Clinton until after her official interview. Ratcliffe, a member of the House Judiciary Committee, said he expected the committee to demand a new interview with Comey to reconcile those “inconsistencies.”

“There’s a mountain of evidence — a growing mountain of evidence — that seems entirely inconsistent with what he said under oath,” said Ratcliffe, a former U.S. attorney who has become a central player in the committee’s investigation of the FBI’s conduct in 2016.

“He may have testified truthfully, but there’s a lot of stuff that says that he didn’t,” Ratcliffe continued, adding: “Trust me: He will either appear and testify or he will exercise his Fifth Amendment right” against self-incrimination.
There's a bunch in here, but the overall narrative is that the Republicans have realized that the investigation is focusing on obstruction of justice, and they're desperate to discredit Comey and the FBI in time.

As Maddow put it, there are six people at the FBI, that we know of, who are witnesses to Trump's interactions with Comey (during or contemporaneously), and four of them have been removed, reassigned, or smeared.
posted by zachlipton at 7:38 PM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


It won't disappear overnight, but it could turn into a situation where the treaty has to be re-certified every couple of years. Something which would completely defeat one of it's core purposes: create market stability between the three countries. If it comes to that, there probably won't be any incentive longterm to keep it.

It's my understanding that both Canada and Mexico see this as an unacceptable poison pill, that they're both pretty firmly committed to maintaining a permanent agreement. I also don't really know how NAFTA works -- I wouldn't think that the US could unilaterally withdraw from without the permission of Congress (or at least the Senate) but I don't know. (And no one here is talking about it.) Ugh.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:43 PM on January 23, 2018


California doesn't need Blue Dogs

You haven't met the people of Kern County.
posted by Talez at 7:48 PM on January 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


Rosie M. Banks: "What I don't like is if organizations like the DCCC start to kneecap promising Democratic candidates because they don't have enough of a large donor base. Beto O'Rourke, for instance, is running a very good grassroots campaign (though I don't know if he has any big donors or not) and is focused on meeting people and getting out the vote. "

Pedantry, but the DCCC is specifically about House races. The DSCC is for the Senate (i.e., O'Rourke's race).
posted by Chrysostom at 7:49 PM on January 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Hilariously there actually was an FBI conspiracy...in favor of Trump. As long as everything is burning down, the FBI reaping exactly what they sowed bothers me less than a lot else happening right now.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:51 PM on January 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


I wouldn't think that the US could unilaterally withdraw from without the permission of Congress (or at least the Senate) but I don't know. (And no one here is talking about it.) Ugh.

Carter withdrew from the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty unilaterally back in the '70s when the whole switch from ROC to PRC went on and a case went to the Supreme Court. It was never heard because Congress didn't object and there was no controversy to decide.

In short: nobody's talking about it because nobody knows what would happen.

SCOTUS could say that Article II says you need congressional consent to make so you need consent to break. They could also say that Article II doesn't say a damn thing and the President is the chief executive of the United States.
posted by Talez at 7:53 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Maddow's interview with Schumer is worth watching. She starts straight in with "liberals and a lot of Democrats are furious with you right now" and presses him. Schumer's spin of McConnell's promise is interesting, and I'm not sure entirely consistent with McConnell's words. He says he was promised a clean vote on the Senate floor "the week of February 8th" (does that mean after they're supposed to vote for another CR??) for a bill Schumer approves (i.e., not some Tom Cotton special), with the aim of whipping up a few more Republican votes to pass it in the Senate. The plan after that seems to be to hope and pray that the House is somehow shamed into action.

You're not going to come away from it wowed that Schumer is playing 12-dimensional chess, but he's also not wrong that instead of protesting outside his office, we should be pressuring a few more Republicans to support something like Durbin-Graham (which, of course, the White House is calling "dead on arrival").

On the other hand, the danger that may we have to wait for "pictures of people being deported" to maybe get moderate Republicans to support a bill is horrifying.
posted by zachlipton at 7:58 PM on January 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


I don't trust the motives of The Intercept. I think they are trying to fracture the left.

If a moderately well-trafficked website's articles criticizing the Democratic Party's institutions are enough to fracture the Democratic Party, than the fracture had deeper causes than those posts. If, for instance, a newspaper reports on the friction between those of the party's constituents who were utterly ruined by the financial and housing crises of 2008 and those of the party's constituents who urged the government not to punish the former's robbers too harshly, then it would be ridiculous to blame the newspaper for making people angry and sowing division: The division already existed.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 7:59 PM on January 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Uhhhhhh.

@realDonaldTrump: Where are the 50,000 important text messages between FBI lovers Lisa Page and Peter Strzok? Blaming Samsung!

That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works! But hey, if you had "blame Samsung for the administration of the FBI's text message archiving system" on your bingo card, it's your lucky night. (There also aren't 50K text messages missing, that's the number that have been found.)
posted by zachlipton at 8:01 PM on January 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


In short: nobody's talking about it because nobody knows what would happen.

Great. I'll add this one to the list of brewing-constitutional-crises-that-might-suddenly-flare-up.

Wait, do brewing things flare up? do they... bubble? what's the sequence here?
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:02 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Ratcliffe said that exchange, among others, called into question Comey’s testimony before the committee in September 2016, when he said the bureau didn’t decide against prosecuting Clinton until after her official interview.

Uh, as a former U.S. Attorney, you would think that Ratcliffe would know that the FBI doesn't make the decision on who to prosecute. The U.S. Attorney does. The FBI can't prosecute anybody. They aren't prosecutors.
posted by JackFlash at 8:04 PM on January 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


On the other hand, the danger that may we have to wait for "pictures of people being deported" to maybe get moderate Republicans to support a bill is horrifying.

A year ago, tens of thousands of people spontaneously protested at airports across the nation to support people who had gotten on planes thinking that their paperwork was in order only to have had a travel ban go into effect while they were in the air. And moderate Republicans still support Trump, 360 days later.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:10 PM on January 23, 2018 [27 favorites]


I think maybe the question is, can potential Democratic candidates for office do it without the DCCC's blessing?

I think that's the test. Perhaps elections can be won at that scale without transferring a shitload of money into the pockets of WXXX TV and campaign consultants with a track record of losing (who basically make shitty generic TV ads to show during Jeopardy!) but it also depends upon the DCCC not blacklisting candidates who take that route and the staff who choose to work with them.

The idea that elected Dem House members should spend four hours per working day hitting up and schmoozing with donors from the moment they are elected is fucked up and needs to end. If you represent a district of 700,000 for a two year term, how much time does that leave for each constituent? Ten seconds or so?
posted by holgate at 8:11 PM on January 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


Wait, do brewing things flare up? do they... bubble? what's the sequence here?

They ferment. As in ferment insurrection.

Yes, I know it's foment.
posted by Talez at 8:19 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Rosie M. Banks: "What I don't like is if organizations like the DCCC start to kneecap promising Democratic candidates because they don't have enough of a large donor base. Beto O'Rourke, for instance, is running a very good grassroots campaign (though I don't know if he has any big donors or not) and is focused on meeting people and getting out the vote. "

Beto's building his campaign entirely with money donated by voters, no more than $2700 per. No PAC money. He's not beholden to any interests other than his constituents.
posted by scalefree at 8:32 PM on January 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'm sure that doesn't include direct money from the Party though.
posted by scalefree at 8:34 PM on January 23, 2018


I think maybe the question is, can potential Democratic candidates for office do it without the DCCC's blessing?

I think that's the test. Perhaps elections can be won at that scale without transferring a shitload of money into the pockets of WXXX TV and campaign consultants with a track record of losing (who basically make shitty generic TV ads to show during Jeopardy!) but it also depends upon the DCCC not blacklisting candidates who take that route and the staff who choose to work with them.


From the Intercept article linked above, starting with the current situation and contrasting it to 2006 and Rahm's supposed successful strategy used then:

But the party’s inability to rethink conventional tactics creates an opening for progressive challengers. The party, like the media covering House campaigns, is relentlessly focused on 23 particular House districts where Clinton won, but the seat is still held by a Republican. Those seats, the party believes, belong to Democrats and are theirs for the taking. That was the strategy in 2006, too, as Emanuel dug in on the 18 seats in districts Kerry had won in 2004 but still were represented by Republicans.

Those seats were toss-ups, and despite Emanuel’s vaunted tactical genius, he did barely better than flipping a coin, winning 10. Democrats won 10 more seats in districts George W. Bush had carried with between 50 and 55 percent of the vote. They won seven in races where Bush pulled in 55 to 60 and won three upsets where Bush had won 60 percent or more of the vote just two years earlier. In other words, a third of all the Democratic pick-ups came in races where the party had been crushed two years prior and was paying little attention this time around. “Back in 2006, a strong argument can be made that Rahm was in the right place at the right time with the wrong strategy,” said Podhorzer, the AFL-CIO’s strategist who worked on the ’06 campaign.


Thank you, Pogo_Fuzzybutt, for posting that article (and everyone else for your work and time and sharing!), I found that article enjoyable and enlightening AND when I finished it there was an article on the Cook County Tax Assessor's situation/election and I found that enlightening and informative and now I have a local race to work on this year! So thank you.
posted by W Grant at 8:35 PM on January 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


McCaskill is going to have something that she can ride in the election

I saw this too. Good. Missouri is hostile to democrats, and while 80% of the state will vote against their own interests, we really need her in the senate. Idgaf that she's a centrist. She's a good senator, and represents the current overall state of democrats here. We're not Oregon or Minnesota.

Our other senator is a Trump True Believer.

Also, Greitens turning MO republicans against each other could be helping. Depends on which side of Hawley he falls on and if by August any Greitens or Greitens-adjacent endorsements are seen as poison. He won't step down because he's way too full of himself. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets a federal appointment to get out of this, though.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:43 PM on January 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** PA-18 special -- Worth noting that there is some overlap between PA-18 and HD-35, which had a big Dem overperformance earlier today.

** 2018 House:
-- Mentioned earlier, embattled PA-07 rep Pat Meehan gave a deeply embarrassing interview about his alleged sexual harassment of a staffer. Meehan still claims to be running for re-election, but everyone's regarding him as a dead man walking - we're starting to get the blind quotes from "senior GOP strategists" that he's out. It's unlikely that PA GOP will be doing him any favors in the court-ordered redistricting, either.

-- Play with this online tool to generate your own map of House results.

-- Time's Wingéd Chariot Dept: Donna Shalala looking at getting into the race for FL-27. I am so very old.
** 2018 Senate:
-- Morning Consult poll on approval ratings on all Senators. Mitch McConnell is least popular at 32/53. Breakdown of Dems up for re-elect in states won by Trump"
Baldwin 40/40
Casey 43/32
Stabenow 44/35
Nelson 51/26
Brown 46/28
Tester 47/40
Donnelley 44/30
McCaskill 41/41
Heitkamp 50/33
Manchin 52/36
-- Joe Manchin confirmed he's running again. I never really thought otherwise, but I guess some people were getting antsy.

-- Hinckley poll has Romney winning UT Senate easily, 64-19.

-- Glengariff Group poll has Stabenow in MI up 51-30 on either likely GOP opponent. They also find Trump approval at 39/54, which could have implications for other races.
** Odds & ends:
-- Oregon handily voted tonight for Measure 101, which effectively confirmed Medicaid expansion in the state. This was a GOP effort to repeal the legislature's support, and that effort failed by a roughly 2-1 margin.

-- As expected, the PA GOP has filed for a stay of the gerrymandering decision. However, even the GOP House Majority Leader doesn't think it will happen.

-- Mentioned earlier, the Florida effort to put a felon enfranchisement initiative on the November ballot has been successful. It will need to hit 60% to pass, which will be challenging. One early encouraging sign is the initiative has been endorsed by Carlos Curbelo, GOP Congressman from FL-26.

-- PPP poll has NC Dems leading 46-41 on the generic ballot for the state legislature. Lead is 53-40 among voters who are 'very excited' to vote. Dems will need big margins to overcome the state's ludicrous gerrymander.

-- DKE has a tracking spreadsheet up of every state legislative race. In IL and TX (the only states past the filing deadline), we're seeing similar numbers to the House of outsized GOP retirements.

-- Interesting Twitter thread on the possibility of other state-level anti-gerrymandering suits, a la PA's. Most states have quite similar language to that used by the PA SC in their finding.

-- Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Murray, widely considered the front-runner for the GOP gubernatorial nom (and thus quite likely the next governor) is dropping out of the race, and will not run for re-election in the wake of multiple accusations of sexual harrassment.

-- Interesting rumblings in South Dakota, where the Dems are running a credible candidate for governor for the first time in forever. He's successfully won elections in a super red state Senate district and has smashed fundraising records.

-- New Yorker wrap-up of recent anti-gerrymandering stuff, worthwhile if you've gotten a little lost. And related NYT op-ed.

-- WI GOP ousting the non-partisan heads of Ethics and Elections Commissions, who were chosen bi-partisanly. ACLU looking at suing.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:46 PM on January 23, 2018 [48 favorites]


Beto's building his campaign entirely with money donated by voters, no more than $2700 per. No PAC money. He's not beholden to any interests other than his constituents.

(. . . and random people in Michigan.)
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:46 PM on January 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


Not to say I wouldn't love to have luxury gay space communism here, but this state is not going to deliver that anytime soon. We'd be colossally short sighted to f up what we do have for something unrealistic.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:50 PM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


McCaskill is an exceptional politician who knows her state well and somehow manages to pick her opponents well. I give her a lot of leeway, because every decision (and everything the leadership might do to accommodate those decisions) has been made with a lot of thought about what her constituents expect. Not in a self-centred way, but in the knowledge that a Republican would be a fuckload worse for the people she cares about.

The justification for the DCCC is essentially "wins above replacement": does the D-trip supply something beyond money with strings attached that makes marginal seats winnable? I'm not sure it does, especially if the process of getting D-trip support means giving up on other campaigning methods. You might get some polling and some eager and talented people brought in to spend a few months sleeping on couches while doing campaign work -- same with EMILY's List -- but it's a model that is very reminiscent of Medicaid work requirements or drug testing for welfare. If a candidate is doing the graft, then don't parachute in Joe or Sally Photogenic as placeholder competition, and if the grafter gets through the primary, then give that candidate the fucking money.
posted by holgate at 9:05 PM on January 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Sooooo I took the transcript of that histrionic "Dems are complicit in murder" ad from a couple days ago and rewrote it to be about the GOP getting supported by the NRA and school shootings.

Fire with fire.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:09 PM on January 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


CNN: Former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates has quietly added a prominent white-collar attorney, Tom Green, to his defense team, signaling that Gates' approach to his not-guilty plea could be changing behind the scenes.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:12 PM on January 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


Well girl talk out of CNN, Melania cancelled going to Davos. All kinds of tabloid type speculation why. Life is short, dessert first.
posted by Oyéah at 9:21 PM on January 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


CNN: Former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates has quietly added a prominent white-collar attorney, Tom Green, to his defense team

His bum is on the defense.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:22 PM on January 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


I don't think Romney will run. He doesn't look that good, kinda scrawny after "winning his fight" with prostate cancer. He could live a longer, less stressful life, without being in politics. Anyone who knows Utah politics, knows that any Republican guy from the right cultural milieu, will be the next Senator from Utah, it doesn't have to be Romney.
posted by Oyéah at 9:25 PM on January 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


The talk about the DCCC and how the official party organizations affect less traditional races made me go looking for this article posted by Chrysostom in the previous thread:

How to Turn a Red State Purple (Democrats Not Required) by Ash Adams for Politico
Not all of these newcomer state legislators are typical progressives ... but in defeating more conservative candidates, they accomplished something that didn’t happen anywhere else in November 2016: In a state that went for Trump by 15 points, they flipped a red legislative chamber to blue.

...

Alaska ... has two Republican senators and a Republican congressman. But the state is changing. In the past four years, Alaska has raised its minimum wage, legalized recreational marijuana and passed the strongest universal voter registration bill in the country. Governor Bill Walker—an ex-Republican who has the support of organized labor and most liberals—and the House majority coalition are publicly advocating the introduction of a statewide income tax, a move long thought impossible in Alaska’s notoriously libertarian political climate.

To be sure, this tectonic political shift would have been impossible without traditional Democratic players, like unions. But what’s been less noticed, even in Alaska, is the role played by millennials who, rather than spending years working their way up on the team, instead reinvented the playbook. Three men in particular ... have pointed the way to reviving progressivism in the state by recruiting new, outsider candidates, teaching them how to win, and connecting them with fellow travelers. In bypassing traditional channels—which in Alaska, as everywhere else, tend to elevate predictable, uninspiring pols who have paid their dues—they’ve propelled a wave of untested candidates with little experience and even less party identity, but who believe in the economic populist agenda shared by a coalition of labor, environmentalists and the state’s large, politically engaged Alaska Native population.

Their emerging coalition has been a boon for the Democratic Party, of course, but what’s remarkable is how little of this transformation has depended on the party. To the extent that the Democratic Party has helped in its own revival—and in transforming Alaska from deep red to a blue-ish purple—it was in part by getting out of the way. As progressives across the country try to pry Republicans out of power, they have important lessons to learn from a state where they are wrongly thought to have no power at all.
(Also, the first guy profiled in the article won his election by 32 votes. Every vote matters!)

It was a really great read and seems germane to the discussion here about the DCCC and the Intercept article. Thanks for posting it, Chrysostom!
posted by kristi at 10:44 PM on January 23, 2018 [28 favorites]




What kind of hellish deathscape of of gun violence has the country turned into that 20 kids can be shot in school yesterday and it barely even registered on the national consciousness? I had vaguely heard there was a shooting but I assumed since it wasn't all over the news that someone had just been winged in an altercation. Which, given my blase attitude to that is bad enough, but the reality is so much worse and I don't even remember them mentioning it on CNN or MSNBC.
posted by Justinian at 11:52 PM on January 23, 2018 [68 favorites]


I can tell that I've been avoiding news for the past month or so because I couldn't figure out why anyone wouldn't want to go anywhere near Davos...I mean the Onion Knight can get it. There's a lot of damn fine men in Westeros but that old geezer is still in my top (living) three.

But then I googled and oh right World Economic Forum Davos Switzerland etc. Which is far less interesting than Game of Thrones, even though it really shouldn't be.

Also this WaPo article I just read about it had a line that gave me a nice chuckle.
Yet to imagine that Davos is all about liberal principles is to misunderstand it. There’s a reason Obama never showed up. There’s a reason Trump will not be pelted with Swiss rolls when he does.
Although because I am one of those annoying factual accuracy types, I must now point out that the Swiss roll wasn't invented in Switzerland (perhaps next door in Austria). In the Swiss Confederation, they are called Biskuitroulade or Roulade in Swiss Standard German, gâteau roulé or roulade in French, and biscotto arrotolato in Italian.
posted by elsietheeel at 11:56 PM on January 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


What kind of hellish deathscape of of gun violence has the country turned into that 20 kids can be shot in school yesterday and it barely even registered on the national consciousness? I had vaguely heard there was a shooting but I assumed since it wasn't all over the news that someone had just been winged in an altercation.

School Shooting in Kentucky Is Nation’s 11th of Year. It’s Jan. 23.
posted by mumimor at 2:26 AM on January 24, 2018 [31 favorites]


As long as everything is burning down, the FBI reaping exactly what they sowed bothers me less than a lot else happening right now.

The FBI is far from perfect, but unless people want it to become a Trumpist fascist militia like ICE everyone should be concerned.
posted by chris24 at 3:20 AM on January 24, 2018 [39 favorites]


It's time for the FBI to push back, "Tell us about these messages?"

Answer: We found no evidence of criminal violations of the law.

Tell us about Clinton:

Answer: We found no evidence of criminal violations of the law.

repeat.
posted by mikelieman at 3:39 AM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


A Tale of Two (R) Senators...

@joshtpm
Sen Ron Johnson claims "informant" who has news about the FBI "Secret Society" working to overthrow President Trump.
VIDEO


@jimsciutto
.@SenatorBurr - GOP Chmn of Senate Intel Cmte - just said he thought missing FBI text messages were just a technical glitch and that the @FBI had been cooperative in providing documents #FactsFirst
posted by chris24 at 4:03 AM on January 24, 2018 [20 favorites]




Flynn kept FBI interview concealed from White House, Trump

It implies that the WH never coached Flynn on what subjects were out of bounds or what he could call fake executive privilege. Also totally the behaviour of someone who definitely was not part of any collusion.
posted by PenDevil at 4:34 AM on January 24, 2018 [23 favorites]


Upon further reading the article it seems that Flynn had no idea the meeting was actually about his own actions:

"No one knew that any of this was happening," said another senior White House official who was there at the time.
"Apparently it was not clear to Flynn that this was about his personal conduct," another White House official said. "So he didn't think of bringing his own lawyer."

posted by PenDevil at 5:10 AM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


"Apparently it was not clear to Flynn that this was about his personal conduct," another White House official said. "So he didn't think of bringing his own lawyer."

Smart as a whip, that one.
posted by lydhre at 5:12 AM on January 24, 2018 [22 favorites]


If you haven't seen the latest, Limbaugh is now blaming the FBI for Iraq, saying the deep state faked the WMD info to make Bush look bad. So not only did they go after Trump, they went after Bush. Even Red State has had enough of this BS.

Limbaugh Sounds Like An Unhinged Conspiracy Theorist, And He’s Not The Only One
Think for a moment about what Limbaugh said. He’s suggesting (even the mere possibility) that the intelligence community of the United States of America purposely lied about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, thereby putting the lives of thousands of troops at risk, not to mention the people of Iraq, because they wanted to make George W. Bush look bad.

It is not only nutty, but it is also dangerous. Why? Because people will believe it.

Limbaugh, Hannity and other assorted characters on the right have convinced many people that corruption within the FBI runs so deep, people within the agency, at senior levels including former Directory James Comey and current Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, were all involved in a scheme to prevent Donald Trump from winning the presidential election.

It’s a crying shame. Once level-headed, even if fiercely partisan conservatives, have sunk themselves to the level of pukes such as Jim Hoft, Alex Jones and goofball “conservative” websites like Conservative Treehouse and Truepundit that only exist to show allegiance to Dear Leader Trump.

They’re a pee-stain on the mantle of conservatism. We’d be better off if they all went away.
posted by chris24 at 5:17 AM on January 24, 2018 [37 favorites]


Winning.

NBC: Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs
Travel to the U.S. has been on the decline ever since President Donald Trump took office, and new data shows the slump translates to a cost of $4.6 billion in lost spending and 40,000 jobs.

The latest data from the National Travel and Tourism Office shows a 3.3 percent drop in travel spending and a 4 percent decline in inbound travel. The downturn has also caused America to lose its spot as the world's second-most popular destination for foreign travel, ceding to Spain.

International tourism to the U.S. began to wane after Trump took office, leading to a so-called Trump slump. Experts say that Trump's proposed travel bans and anti-immigration language have had a negative impact on the U.S.'s attraction for foreign visitors, in addition to a weaker dollar and heightened security measures.

“It’s not a reach to say the rhetoric and policies of this administration are affecting sentiment around the world, creating antipathy toward the U.S. and affecting travel behavior,” Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, told The New York Times.
posted by chris24 at 5:24 AM on January 24, 2018 [31 favorites]


Also, color me baffled that Erick Erickson, the same guy who called Michelle Obama a “Marxist harpy,” David Souter “a goat fucking child molester,” that President Obama won the Nobel Prize because of an “affirmative action quota,” and who called Wendy Davis “Abortion Barbie.”

...that fucker is a rock solid anti-Trumper?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:30 AM on January 24, 2018 [11 favorites]


Apparently the "stain on the mantle" is a thing from Arthurian legend. Huh. I learned something.
posted by OnceUponATime at 5:43 AM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]




Alabama House votes to end special U.S. Senate elections, Brian Lyman, Montgomery Advertiser
The Alabama House of Representatives Tuesday evening approved a bill that would end special elections for the state’s two U.S. Senate seats when vacancies occur.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. Steve Clouse, R-Ozark and coming after last year’s special election for U.S. Senate, would allow a governor’s appointee for a Senate vacancy to serve until the next general election in the state, rather than have the governor call a special election. The appointee would go through regularly scheduled primaries for that contest.

It passed 67 to 31 on a largely party-line vote after a two-hour filibuster from Democrats who said it would diminish voters’ voices in the process.

“You’re taking away from citizens the right to vote,” said Rep. Louise Alexander, D-Bessemer.

The bill does not address other offices in the state. Clouse said the bill aimed to save the state the costs of a special election, saying last year’s contest for U.S. Senate cost the state $11 million. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 36 other states use the methods outlined in Clouse's bill.
Also: Haley Britzky, Axios
Why it matters: Democrat Doug Jones was elected to the Senate in a special election, rocking a deep red state. The bill's sponsor, Rep. Steve Clouse, said it was meant to save the state money as last year's election cost $11 million. The bill now advances to the Alabama Senate.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 5:59 AM on January 24, 2018 [32 favorites]


Republicans Are Killing Social Security One Tiny Service Cut at a Time

Since 2010, when Republicans took back control of the House of Representatives, SSA’s operating budget has been cut by 11 percent. For 2018, the Republican-controlled Senate Appropriations Committee has proposed limiting Social Security’s administrative budget even more, this time, by another $492 million—4 percent of SSA’s operating budget, on top of an already enacted 16 percent cut, after inflation, since 2010.
...
The ongoing limits Congress is imposing on SSA can be felt in many ways. More than 1 million people are awaiting hearings to determine whether they qualify for Social Security disability benefits. Currently, the wait time for a hearing is more than 600 days. In just the past two years, 18,701 workers have died waiting for a disability decision. That is to say, waiting to find out if they were eligible to receive benefits that they earned with every past paycheck. Benefits that could have saved lives, prevented bankruptcies, and stopped the loss of homes, thus preventing homelessness.

At a time when the population is aging, SSA has had to close 64 district offices and more than 500 mobile field offices. Offices still open have had to reduce their hours. SSA’s workforce has declined by 6 percent—with five states having lost 15 percent of their SSA employees! Hourslong lines stretching out the door have become a common feature of field offices. Hold times on SSA’s 1-800 hotline have increased to the point that nearly half of callers hang up in frustration. Importantly, these are services for which the American people have already paid.

posted by T.D. Strange at 6:12 AM on January 24, 2018 [51 favorites]


Judge Requires U.S. to Give ACLU Notice of Any Transfer of Detained American to Allow a Challenge, ACLU (with links to ruling and other case docs)
A federal judge has ruled that the U.S. must give the American Civil Liberties Union 72 hours’ notice before transferring an American detained abroad to another country’s government to allow for a legal challenge to the transfer before it happens.

The U.S. military has been holding the U.S. citizen in Iraq without charges for more than four months. In late December, the judge barred the man’s transfer until ACLU lawyers were able to speak with him to determine whether he wanted to pursue the habeas corpus petition that they had filed on his behalf while he was held incommunicado.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:18 AM on January 24, 2018 [36 favorites]


International tourism to the U.S. began to wane after Trump took office, leading to a so-called Trump slump.

A hundred campaign managers and speechwriters just got their hearts all aflutter at "Trump slump", it just feels too good to say to not use.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:37 AM on January 24, 2018 [17 favorites]


The bill, sponsored by Rep. Steve Clouse, R-Ozark and coming after last year’s special election for U.S. Senate, would allow a governor’s appointee for a Senate vacancy to serve until the next general election in the state, rather than have the governor call a special election. The appointee would go through regularly scheduled primaries for that contest.

Uh, historically Republicans have done better in special elections because of reduced turnout compared to the general. I'm not sure these guys have thought this through beyond, "We lost! PANIC! Change the rules!!"
posted by leotrotsky at 7:18 AM on January 24, 2018 [26 favorites]


NBC: Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs

Make no mistake: to the true believe, this is a win. Throwing the economy off a cliff in the service of making America purer and free of any taint of foreign contact is a noble aim, a martyrdom which will strengthen the nation. Only those visitors who are prepared to worship at the appropriate shrines will be welcome: the rest can stay out and keep their filthy money to themselves. Don't need 'em, don't wan't em.

If they could close the borders to everyone, they would - no more diseases, no more diseased ideas. Freed from these infections, America will grow to its full destiny.

I've seen exactly this in Brexitland, and there's no shortage of evidence in the US. So don't go thinking that these sorts of reports will sway the hard core - quite the opposite.
posted by Devonian at 7:23 AM on January 24, 2018 [27 favorites]


I made a post for border wall-related discussions.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:31 AM on January 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


Throwing the economy off a cliff in the service of making America purer and free of any taint of foreign contact is a noble aim, a martyrdom which will strengthen the nation. Only those visitors who are prepared to worship at the appropriate shrines will be welcome: the rest can stay out and keep their filthy money to themselves. Don't need 'em, don't wan't em.

That sure worked out well for China in the 19th century, didn't it...
posted by Melismata at 7:42 AM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


leotrotsky: Uh, historically Republicans have done better in special elections because of reduced turnout compared to the general. I'm not sure these guys have thought this through beyond, "We lost! PANIC! Change the rules!!"

Since it's just an Alabama-level proposal, does it make much difference either way? I suspect the rationale is less "Republicans are doomed" and more "Compared to primary voters, the governor is marginally less likely to select another child molester."
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:55 AM on January 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


The Nunes memo thing has got to be the most perfect example of a manufactured event we've seen in many years, and yet **STILL** the so-called "liberal media" is falling for it.

Nunes (a solidly in the bag for Trump Republican) wrote a memo, then classified it, then got a bunch of people to "leak" about how his memo was explosive and proved that Obama was evil, Clinton was evil-er, and Trump was godlike in his perfection.

If he'd just written his sycophantic memo and released it to the public then no one would have cared, because of course Nunes is going to say that Obama and Clinton were evil incarnate and God was Trumplike in his perfection.

But by making it "secret" and claiming he'd just love to release it's explosive findings if only he could, he managed to turn it into a huge manufactured event and got all the MAGA hats and Russian bots tweeting about it. And now, NPR, and MSNBC, and CNN, and all the other "liberal" media outlets are talking about his little fantasy memo as if it contained the secrets of the universe and really was something other than pro-Trump fanfic written by the most sycophantic toady in Congress.

I'm as impressed as I am repelled. I know it's too much to expect the media to actually have a spine, but I thought at the very least they'd have the self awareness to know when they were being played.
posted by sotonohito at 8:07 AM on January 24, 2018 [92 favorites]


Everybody in government and media (except for Mueller and Co.) needs to start ignoring Nunes tout suite. He's a despicable little grub.
posted by GrammarMoses at 8:11 AM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


Freed from these infections, America will grow to its full destiny.

That destiny being that everything that's not attached to a city flush with cash becomes Owsley County, KY.
posted by Talez at 8:15 AM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


Since it's just an Alabama-level proposal, does it make much difference either way? I suspect the rationale is less "Republicans are doomed" and more "Compared to primary voters, the governor is marginally less likely to select another child molester."

To the Republican establishment that effectively runs the state, yeah, this is it. But to the competition, the government just took away the rope that Teahadists used to hang themselves.
posted by Talez at 8:18 AM on January 24, 2018 [1 favorite]


That being said this isn't limited to Republican governments. Every time Massachusetts gets a Republican governor, the veto-proof Democratic legislature suddenly finds special elections back in vogue and every time a Democratic governor gets back in the governor suddenly deserves to be able to appoint.
posted by Talez at 8:20 AM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


That destiny being that everything that's not attached to a city flush with cash becomes Owsley County, KY.

An Amerca without foreigners visiting the cities for business and pleasure won't have too many such cities.
posted by ocschwar at 8:22 AM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


From Bloomberg, Inside the Dysfunctional Relationship of Donald Trump and Theresa May:
Trump turned to May and told her he believed there were parts of London that were effectively “no-go areas” due to the number of Islamic extremists. May chose to speak up to “correct him,” Wilkins said.

Trump also discussed his British golf courses and his hopes that the relationship with May would be stronger than the Thatcher-Reagan alliance. “It was an hour of the president holding court and the PM being very diplomatic and not many other people saying anything,” Wilkins said.
...
During formal phone calls between the two leaders, May finds it almost impossible to make headway and get her points across, one person familiar with the matter said. Trump totally dominates the discussion, leaving the prime minister with five or ten seconds to speak before he interrupts and launches into another monologue.

In one phone conversation during 2017, Trump complained to May over the criticism he’d been getting in British newspapers. Amid warnings that Trump would face protests in the streets when he arrived, he told the prime minister he would not be coming to the U.K. until she could promise him a warm welcome.

May responded to say such treatment was simply the way the British press operate, and there wasn’t much she could do. In the secure bunker underneath the prime minister’s office, her advisers listened in to the call in astonishment at Trump’s demand.
posted by peeedro at 8:36 AM on January 24, 2018 [56 favorites]


Who are the fairest of them all? When it comes to inequality, it's Europeans
A Guardian opinion piece by Lucas Chancel, a French economist who worked on the World Inequality Report 2018 with Thomas Piketty, and co-directs the World Inequality Lab

In a way this deserves it's own FPP, because it is not only relevant for US/Trump politics, but I'm putting it here as inspiration for all of you hard fighting Socialists.
It’s hard to exaggerate the difference between western Europe and the USA when it comes to inequality. In 1980, these blocs of similar population and average income were also similar in income inequality: the top 1% captured around 10% of national income, while the poorest 50% took around 20%.

Things have changed dramatically since then. Today, the top 1% in Europe take 12% of income (in the US, 20%) while the bottom 50% have 22% (in the US, 10%).

It’s often said that globalisation and digitalisation explain the surge in global inequality, but that’s not a very convincing narrative. Since the 1980s, Europe and the US have had similar exposure to global markets and new technologies. But they have differed in policies and institutional direction. To date, Europe has shown that it’s much better at keeping inequality in check.

Put bluntly, the EU has resisted the notion of turning its market economy into a market society. It has partly rejected the thinking of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, in which market forces, in the absence of any regulation, provide the best of all worlds in areas such as education, health and wages. There are large differences within Europe, though: the UK and Ireland have followed the American path more closely than continental Europe has. Nor can it be said that recent policy changes all go in the right direction. France’s recent reforms are strikingly similar to Donald Trump’s in how they favour the rich.
As the article clearly states, Europe is not your gay socialist paradise, and there are tons of problems all through the EU. But it also makes it clear that government works when democracy is allowed to work.
posted by mumimor at 8:39 AM on January 24, 2018 [46 favorites]


So don't go thinking that these sorts of reports will sway the hard core - quite the opposite.

Arg. Nobody needs to sway hardcore Trumpies or care at all about what they think. We only need a very small increase in the percentage of Democrats who get to the polls.
posted by straight at 8:44 AM on January 24, 2018 [33 favorites]


In case anyone cares how DACA expiring might affect the construction industry: A LOT. DACA expiration, TPS elimination threatens 100k+ construction jobs. Should be interesting, since most of the construction world is decidedly Republican.
posted by yoga at 8:44 AM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


FTA I previously linked:
“Three-quarters of our contractors are having trouble hiring workers,” said James Young, director of strategic communications and congressional relations at the AGC. "You pull DACA eligible people out of the industry plus [those with] TPS, and we don’t really have an answer how we’re going to address that concern looking forward.”

But one of the AGC’s greatest concerns, Young said, is that lawmakers, succumbing to political pressure, will come to a DACA deal without addressing the wider issue of immigration. “What are they going to do with the 10 to 11 million [undocumented workers] already here?” he asked.

“We’re stuck in this cycle of them not addressing our real problems,” he said.
James Young needs to help the AGC connect the dots between Republican bullshit policy and the realities of how directly immigration is tied to the construction industry. There's an economic bubble coming folks, and it is going to SUCK.
posted by yoga at 8:51 AM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


As the article clearly states, Europe is not your gay socialist paradise, and there are tons of problems all through the EU. But it also makes it clear that government works when democracy is allowed to work.

...and the US would be a lot closer to Europe if we weren't so fucked by the electoral college that ignores the popular will of the people, a Senate that biases low population states, and a House of Representatives gerrymandered all to hell.

Give me a pure popular vote for President. Give me a House with one seat for every 40,000 people (like originally intended, which would give us around 8,000 Reps) and seats that are proportioned via an independent redistricting board. Add Puerto Rico, DC, Guam, and USVI as states.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:54 AM on January 24, 2018 [54 favorites]


As a basic starting point: give a shit about state government, state legislative elections and the statewide media organisations that used to inform you about your state capitol but have been decimated over the past decade. Give a shit about your hometown news orgs.
posted by holgate at 9:05 AM on January 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


Give me a House with one seat for every 40,000 people (like originally intended, which would give us around 8,000 Reps)

Why not just pin the number of representatives per state to the population of the least populated state (i.e., one representative per Wyoming)? That would give California 66 seats, up from its current 53.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:07 AM on January 24, 2018 [46 favorites]


> NBC: Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs

A few hundred dollars of that total belongs to my wife and I. We can’t vote in US elections, but we can vote with our wallets.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:09 AM on January 24, 2018 [25 favorites]


posted by yoga: In case anyone cares how DACA expiring might affect the construction industry: A LOT. DACA expiration, TPS elimination threatens 100k+ construction jobs. Should be interesting, since most of the construction world is decidedly Republican.


Lo, these many scaramucci's ago, in one of these threads, I mentioned that my house got pretty destroyed in a storm tornado in April of 2016. Every house in my neighborhood was impacted, and 85% of the town. Later, my in-laws were impacted by Harvey, and my parents took a hit in Florida. I have been elbows deep in the construction industry for almost two years now. If I didn't have Latinx contractors, nothing would be finished. The only people I've had to lawyer up about were the white guys who didn't pay the brown guys, and who did shit work when the brown guys stopped showing up. Because my asshole GC thought he could play trump and just not pay people.

My point is this, I have dealt with dozens and dozens of hard working Americans who speak Spanish. There are no white guys on roofs in texas. I've had lunch with crews and talked to them, and while some percentage may not have papers in order, they are as American as any roll coal dickhead flaunting his privilege. Maybe even more so, they've worked so hard, and suffered so much to get here and do the hard fucking jobs white folks don't want to do. Dude, I couldn't hire a white crew for roofing, landscaping, painting, drywall or foundation work if I wanted to. It's hot, dangerous, not very well paid work. But my Latinx crew was there every day they said they'd be there. My white guys randomly showed up if they needed money. I ended up hiring my roofers cousin to do my gutters, his wife to help with post construction cleanup, and his brother to fix the shit the CG fucked up.

Without Latinx workers, Texas will stop working.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:37 AM on January 24, 2018 [135 favorites]


We already saw how this shit played out in Alabama, years ago.
posted by Fleebnork at 9:45 AM on January 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


secretagentsockpuppet Latinx workers are the backbone of labor in this country, I agree 100%. They do a damn good job, they show up, and I would far rather work with them than the white privileged assholes any day of the week. Fuck the white coal roller manbabies. I believe it'll all be side jobs, cash only under the table just to keep things moving. That works on the residential side, but not the commercial side. So good luck el hefe blancos - no skills, no $ bills.
posted by yoga at 9:56 AM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


I just saw an interesting Twitter thread detailing the history of Japanese internment as a land grab by white California farmers, and drawing parallels with DACA and the general anti-immigrant policy shift. Basically we locked up our most knowledgable farmers and wound up creating the food shortage that necessitated "victory gardens."

And here's the part that most people don't know, unless they work in some really specific parts of the farm economy.

Most of the US thinks of "immigrant farm workers" as grunt labor. And yes, most of the brute force work on farms is done by Latinx immigrants.

But 1st and 2nd generation Latinx immigrants are also the *knowledge base* in modern US agriculture.

I'm gonna tell you guys a secret. A lot US farmers don't actually know that much about farming. They know a lot about writing checks to Latinx contractors, who know how to farm.


I'm involved in the construction industry, and the situation is very similar.
posted by contraption at 10:02 AM on January 24, 2018 [113 favorites]


My conservative Trump-voting brother is in construction, owns a company that builds houses for wealthy people in west Texas. Relies heavily on a Mexican workforce. But somehow, thinks that Trump policies won't negatively affect his ability to get that workforce. But also complains that the white guys he hires are flaky, drug addicts, unreliable and expensive.

I have asked him flat out "You realize that voting for Trump means you are making your labor problem worse?" and he sputters something about people should just come over legally, and he's just being...really, really dumb about this. Willfully so, because he knows, because everyone knows, that cheap reliable Mexican labor would not exist without people coming over via illegal border crossings. That's why they're so cheap and reliable; they're vulnerable and need the work. And anyone who thinks about it for 2 minutes knows that. He knows that. But he doesn't want to know that. And so now he's screwing himself along with the rest of us.

And that's your average Trump voter. Utterly refusing to deal with reality and not caring how many people it hurts, even themselves. It's a hell of thing to witness in person in people you had otherwise assumed were sane and capable of basic rationality.
posted by emjaybee at 10:13 AM on January 24, 2018 [124 favorites]


James Young needs to help the AGC connect the dots between Republican bullshit policy and the realities of how directly immigration is tied to the construction industry. There's an economic bubble coming folks, and it is going to SUCK.

Honestly, I don't know if this is a good or bad idea. Immigrants historically have been hired by industries willing to underpay for longer hours - and that means that the prices of many consumer goods, including homes, restaurant meals, etc, are artificially low because employers are using immigrant labor to make up the shortage. The prices will rise, but I don't know that that's a bad thing - like, employers shouldn't be using cheap immigrant labor to hide actual costs. It may mean we have to pay more for goods, but in an ideal world, everyone would be competing on an equal plane for equal pay. I don't really want to see people arguing "hey, if you want to keep your cheap labor, you need to let the immigrants stay" because it plays into the veryvery worst immigration arguments.

I would rather hear people saying "Look at how hard these people work for America" rather than "Look how your costs will rise if you have to hire Americans."
posted by corb at 10:13 AM on January 24, 2018 [38 favorites]


Here is the Sarah Taber farmworker tweetstorm on Threadreader for anyone who can't access Twitter (or, like me, it's just being balky with the long thread).

Now the "second generation" Latinx farm workers would be citizens and, hopefully, be immune to deportation, but of course ICE might not see it that way. I live in California, which is a breadbasket or rather a fruit-and-vegetable-basket, and I know that Kamala Harris and Dianne Feinstein are solidly behind DREAMers. I hate to think of what would happen to our economy, not to mention our food supply, if ICE stormed in and rounded up our Latinx immigrants and citizens. Luckily, our (Latinx) Attorney General, Xavier Becerra, is telling ICE to kick rocks.

I wonder how many of the white wanna-be manual laboring manly-men MAGA-hatters have any kind of actual work ethic? So many of them seem to live in a fantasy world informed by video games and nostalgia. Farm work is hard work and it's also skilled work, as Sarah Taber points out. And as so many prepper types have found out when they discover that "back to the land" is not just a pioneer fantasy video game. Hell, anyone who has read the Little House books ought to realize that.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 10:19 AM on January 24, 2018 [36 favorites]


> The prices will rise, but I don't know that that's a bad thing - like, employers shouldn't be using cheap immigrant labor to hide actual costs.

Absolutely. However...

> I would rather hear people saying "Look at how hard these people work for America" rather than "Look how your costs will rise if you have to hire Americans."

You have to sell policy using the language that your target audience will understand and respond to. I would lean strongly on the humanitarian message that people deserve a living wage, but so far that hasn't been enough to bring about change, so I'm fine also pointing out that those who want to deport these people should note the impact that this will have on their own standard of living, and on the American economy as a whole.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:21 AM on January 24, 2018 [7 favorites]


Is it okay if I'm slightly icked by the whole "Hispanics are much harder workers than whites" thing? It might be true (I dunno), but if so, it's not for great underlying reasons, and certainly not because of some Inherent Moral Fiber. I want a future without any observable correlation between ethnicity and dependability, because I want everyone to feel safe doing whatever-degree-of-assed job they wanna do.

(That said, yes, there's grim satisfaction in the thought of pro-Trump bosses suffering for lack of labor.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:30 AM on January 24, 2018 [23 favorites]


I think you’re reading that wrong, it’s not that immigrant workers work “harder”, but there are many more immigrants willing to work for lower wages and in difficult condition jobs, because American citizen workers generally have better opportunities, just by virtue of being a citizen. The kind of citizens that don’t have better opportunities and are willing to do the same work under the same pay and conditions...are generally precluded from better work for a reason. It’s nothing to do with inherent moral fiber, and everything to do with exploiting legally vulnerable populations. Bonus points for at the same time not providing our disadvantage citizens with a viable safety net, or mental health treatment, or reentry programs.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:40 AM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


So it used to be that a lot of the justifications for keeping the Electoral College and other electoral policies that privilege land area over population were rooted in the defense of food production - now it turns out they are actually a threat to that does any of that change? Or do we just move on to a new justification?
posted by Artw at 10:40 AM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


I should have been much clearer that I don't think any commenters believe or intended to say anything like that; I'm just talking about the larger, unintended connotations of occasional "positive" stereotyping.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:45 AM on January 24, 2018 [1 favorite]


contraption that's a really accurate observation. Thanks for sharing that.
posted by yoga at 10:46 AM on January 24, 2018


Is it okay if I'm slightly icked by the whole "Hispanics are much harder workers than whites" thing? It might be true (I dunno), but if so, it's not for great underlying reasons, and certainly not because of some Inherent Moral Fiber.

It's more of a class/privilege statement than a racial one. Plus - if you're willing to relocate to another country for work, you are almost by definition "highly motivated".

It's the same way that I made it through an engineering program at a top school in 3.5 years - I grew up poor as shit - with government cheese and all - and graduated HS to work shitty construction and restaurant jobs. When I finally got into college, I was focused like a laser. Those of my classmates who were gifted the opportunity didn't work so hard and many of them dropped out.

It's not like I'm some overachieving A-type. I'm the laziest fucker you'll ever meet. But, I sure as fuck wasn't going to live and work like my dad did. Some time in actual poverty can be motivational - assuming you can navigate the roadblocks.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 10:48 AM on January 24, 2018 [20 favorites]


We may be veering into derail territory, but I would advise progressives in general to avoid even coming close to sounding like "trumps gonna deport our exploited, grossly underpaid working and rural class and then we'll be paying $15 for a head of lettuce" as a plea to halt deportations.

First, you're not going to win people over who don't even see POC as human, so don't worry about wasted breath when it comes to pointing out the families torn apart by ICE. The human side of deportations and the devastation it causes to those directly affected should be emphasised. Second, if you really want to use an economic argument, I'd keep the spotlight on employers. That any pay raise results in many employers cutting benefits and raising prices rather than take the slightest dip in salary, and that's something that can and should be addressed tangibly and without nearly as much cost as rounding people up and shipping them across the border. Lastly, let's also not forget that something like 30%-40% of food produced in the US is thrown away. There's absolutely no reason for anyone in this country to be without easy access to affordable food, if we're prepared to deal with that problem.

Basically I bristle at talk of immigrants as a demographic, a workforce, a consumer base, and the reason Americans eat cheaply rather than as human beings with actual lives to live; not least of all when the roots of the problems that are so frequently brought up in these discussions lie elsewhere.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 10:52 AM on January 24, 2018 [29 favorites]


PPP TX Senate poll:
Cruz 45
O'Rourke 37
posted by Chrysostom at 10:54 AM on January 24, 2018 [29 favorites]


Willfully so, because he knows, because everyone knows, that cheap reliable Mexican labor would not exist without people coming over via illegal border crossings. That's why they're so cheap and reliable; they're vulnerable and need the work. And anyone who thinks about it for 2 minutes knows that. He knows that. But he doesn't want to know that. And so now he's screwing himself along with the rest of us.

THIS x1000. The cognitive dissonance I see over and over is "well they should just follow the rules and come here legally" with "..... but they should keep working for absurdly low/illegal wages when they do."
posted by nakedmolerats at 10:55 AM on January 24, 2018 [15 favorites]


Anti-immigration laws also have devastating effects on agriculture:
2011 Alabama - One employer went from 64 employees to 11 overnight when the law went active;
2011 Georgia - one farmer lost over $200,000 worth of crops; he was short 100 people for harvest season;
2017 California - growing labor shortages, and there's a somewhat-debunked "$13 million rotting in the fields" story bouncing around.

Harvest work barely pays over minimum wage (often, it's paid by volume - so experienced, fast workers earn can $12-$15 an hour but beginners will be lucky to earn the federal minimum), and only a few of the jobs have benefits (5-10%). You need a strong work ethic and a lifetime of practice to make it worth doing short-term hard labor in the summer heat. And with the "at will employment" setup, farmers discover that college students looking for summer jobs will work a week and then not show up again, once they figure out how hard it is.

(There's room here for some ranting about how large-scale agriculture has always involved slave labor or something very close to it; the whole system relies on people who don't expect "standard" income for their work. But "this system needs reform" is not the same as "eh, let it all collapse.")
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:57 AM on January 24, 2018 [25 favorites]


PPP TX Senate poll:
Cruz 45
O'Rourke 37
"Sixty-three percent said they were more likely to support a candidate who has pledged to not accept money from corporate special interests. After telling respondents about O’Rourke’s pledge not to take PAC money, the poll showed him in a statistical tie with Cruz, 43-41 percent."
posted by chris24 at 11:05 AM on January 24, 2018 [47 favorites]


I’m absolutely going to assume Trump voters share Trumps work ethic.
posted by Artw at 11:05 AM on January 24, 2018 [20 favorites]




To give just one example where agriculture work is concerned:

I spent a summer working on a strawberry farm. It is gruelling, back-breaking work (Having grown up in the city, I was unaware that strawberries grow on the ground. I was imagining sauntering through columns of tall strawberry bushes, not literally crawling in the dirt dragging a pile of baskets behind me). Everyone got paid the same, regardless of country of origin: $1 per basket.

What this means is that you're paid according to how hard you work in the summer heat. But there was the added motivation of how you were living your life. Do you live with your folks, or do you have a family to support? Are you living in a trailer boppin' from coast to coast following seasonal crops, or are you living in an apartment of your own? Are you sending money to relatives elsewhere or just supporting your nearest and dearest, or just yourself?

With all these motivating factors in play, the divide was pretty clear. High school kids would kind of plod along, maybe even eating some of their berries as they went. Migrating nationals living out of a camper van would work really hard, but not nearly as hard as people who otherwise had few if any legal means of supporting themselves, had kids to support (they often came along to share in the work, in fact) and had relatives back home to take care of on top of it. I saw pretty quickly exactly why it is that "immigrants work so hard".

Meanwhile, the actual landowners had this giant McMansion on the far side of the property.

This isn't to say farmers are filthy rich or something. But it was pretty clear to me the set-up was rigged, and through a confluence of motivating factors, it would be the immigrants breaking their backs the fastest. The problem and the solution lies in a system that perpetuates this exploitation; not in deporting or retaining the exploited with the system intact.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 11:15 AM on January 24, 2018 [60 favorites]


If the goal is to persuade people to support DACA, the article title shouldn't be "destroy these student's dreams," but "lose many future doctors and nurses who're already most of the way through their education" with a strong followup of, "that education will be put to work in other countries, instead of here."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:17 AM on January 24, 2018 [34 favorites]


Senior U.S. intelligence officers including CIA Director Mike Pompeo have been questioned by the U.S. special counsel’s team about whether President Donald Trump tried to obstruct justice in the Russia probe, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:19 AM on January 24, 2018 [26 favorites]


... it’s not that immigrant workers work “harder”, but there are many more immigrants willing to work for lower wages and in difficult condition jobs, because American citizen workers generally have better opportunities, just by virtue of being a citizen.

This. There was a great This American Life episode that spent two hours talking to people that lived in a town dominated by poultry factories. The factories preferred the undocumented immigrants because when they treated the citizens badly enough, they would leave for another factory, or do something else for a while and come back when they got desperate enough. The undocumented workers were more steady because it was too risky for them to leave the factory they were in.
posted by diogenes at 11:22 AM on January 24, 2018 [17 favorites]


“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Steven Mnuchin said

Shut up shut up shut up you god damned moron. The US gets to enjoy a strong currency despite its massive negative balance of trade in the world economy. Any other country and we'd have everything costing three times as much.

A weaker dollar won't bring domestic industry back or whatever blue collar cause de jure you're looking to help to cloak the racism of the adminisration. The rest of the world is a heroin addict for US dollars. They'll do whatever they need to in order to get their fix. If you try and lower the value of the dollar it just means you're paying more for everything that you import for shits and fucking giggles.
posted by Talez at 11:25 AM on January 24, 2018 [39 favorites]


Senior U.S. intelligence officers including CIA Director Mike Pompeo have been questioned by the U.S. special counsel’s team about whether President Donald Trump tried to obstruct justice in the Russia probe, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

I just don't understand why we're having this conversation still. The man admits it! Get him in front of the special counsel and just let him talk - he will admit it to them!
posted by winna at 11:26 AM on January 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


I also urge everyone to think of the abuses of farm workers in the US (many of which are enabled by immigration policies). Ethical food should not only be about the treatment of animals, the rainforest, or pesticide use. We could all stand to be better educated about this issue, it’s a pressing one that will come to the forefront if this administration is allowed to implement its regressive and punitive policies unchecked.

You could do worse than begin with the Coalition of Immokalee Workers, which was started in 1993 by Florida tomato pickers to protect Florida tomato pickers but has earned international recognition over the years and does outstanding work.

It’s their fight but it should be our fight.
posted by lydhre at 11:27 AM on January 24, 2018 [49 favorites]


Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today signed an executive order to protect and strengthen net neutrality in New York. New York State's government is directed through this Executive Order not to enter into any contracts for internet service unless the ISPs agree to follow net neutrality principles.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:29 AM on January 24, 2018 [49 favorites]


To clarify my earlier statements on immigration labor: I never meant to imply that they should be paid less. I think they should be paid the same amount as a white American worker doing the same job. I’ve hired Latinx people do some painting in my own house and paid them and extra $50 over what they asked for, because they deserved it, did a great job and were reliable. I hate to see them abused by GC’s & think it’s disgusting.
posted by yoga at 11:32 AM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


I saw a commercial the other day for Redpack tomatoes featuring a "family farmer" and the strong implication was that that one dude and his 2.5 blonde children were single-handedly ~working the land~ and it enraged me. There was literally no one else in this commercial about how Redpack tomatoes are grown and harvested but this one white family.

I want to see commercials depicting the people who actually harvest our food. It doesn't have to be a huge downer or a political message, just give these workers some visibility the same way every fucking car commercial shows people working on an assembly line as a selling point about the brand's authenticity.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:35 AM on January 24, 2018 [60 favorites]


Senior U.S. intelligence officers ... have been questioned by the U.S. special counsel’s team about whether President Donald Trump tried to obstruct justice in the Russia probe...

I just don't understand why we're having this conversation still. The man admits it! Get him in front of the special counsel and just let him talk - he will admit it to them!


I thought I had a limitless capacity for trying to understand the latest nuances of the investigation, but I'm officially burned out. I was just trying to read the latest Josh Marshall posts about why this week's revelations are a big deal, and I just couldn't muster up the energy. We know Trump obstructed justice. All that matters is the outcome. I'm done with reading tea leaves. Wake me up when Mueller is done.
posted by diogenes at 11:38 AM on January 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


Think for a moment about what Limbaugh said. He’s suggesting (even the mere possibility) that the intelligence community of the United States of America purposely lied about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, thereby putting the lives of thousands of troops at risk, not to mention the people of Iraq, because they wanted to make George W. Bush look bad.

Which is a remarkable admission from Limbaugh, because it concedes that the Iraq debacle made Bush the Lesser -- and by implication, Republicans -- look bad.

I remember when movement conservatives gloated that they would ride the Iraqi adventure to permanent victory over dirty hippies and the Vietnam syndrome.
posted by Gelatin at 11:40 AM on January 24, 2018 [21 favorites]



I remember when movement conservatives gloated that they would ride the Iraqi adventure to permanent victory over dirty hippies and the Vietnam syndrome.


I've just added this to the many blatant about-faces conservatism has gone through in the past couple of years. I can't even be shocked any more. (It is still weird for me to hear George Soros spoken of by conservatives as evil incarnate. Once upon a time he was the darling of people who capitalize the L in liberty, because of his heavy involvement in pro-democracy movements in the former Soviet Bloc. Remember when Republicans liked--or at least said they liked--democracy?)
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:44 AM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


it’s not that immigrant workers work “harder”, but there are many more immigrants willing to work for lower wages and in difficult condition jobs, because American citizen workers generally have better opportunities, just by virtue of being a citizen.

This. Minimum wage and employment law only applies to people who feel able to exercise it without having a finger pointing back at them.

On some level, I think the people who complain about "immigrants taking our jobs" know this - they see the illegal immigrants accepting less pay and being willing to scab - they just don't understand the structural reasons why it is happening do not rest on the backs of illegal immigrants.
posted by corb at 11:48 AM on January 24, 2018 [11 favorites]


I've just added this to the many blatant about-faces conservatism has gone through in the past couple of years.

I saw a graph the other day which showed a big divide between older and younger Republicans on Trump, so be prepared for more whiplash to come. (David French musing about the graph here.)
posted by clawsoon at 11:51 AM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Senate just confirmed Alex Azar for HHS Secretary, 55-43.

Six Democrats in favor: Carper, Coons, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Jones, Manchin
One Republican against: Paul
posted by zachlipton at 11:55 AM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


Lawfare: How Many of Devin Nunes’s GOP Colleagues on the Intelligence Committee Will Stand Up for the Accuracy of His Memo? Hint: Not Many

That didn't stop NPR from leading with a he-said, she-said, shape-of-the-world-views-differ ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ story at the top of the hour this morning.

NPR listeners would have gotten the impression not that Nunes is running partisan interference for a treasonous president, but that there just might be something to this classified memo story. In any case, they accomplished the conservative goal -- associating the phrase "classified memo", like "Benghazi" and "email server" before, with some vaguely unsavory but unspecified act on behalf of Democrats. Nice.
posted by Gelatin at 11:56 AM on January 24, 2018 [17 favorites]


He’s suggesting (even the mere possibility) that the intelligence community of the United States of America purposely lied about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction

Nope. The Bush administration, led by Dick Cheney, bypassed the intelligence community and set up their own intelligence office to get the answers they wanted.
(1) During the several months preceding the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, the vice president endeavored to bypass the role of the Central Intelligence Agency as the nation's principal filter of raw intelligence, directing subordinates within the agency to "stovepipe" raw intelligence directly to his office.

(2) As a result of this policy, the vice president became privy to unanalyzed, unverified data that should not have been available to him, including documents that seemed to indicate that Saddam Hussein may have attempted to purchase yellowcake uranium from the African country of Niger in February 1999.

(3) Relying on these documents, and ignoring the CIA's assessment that they were most likely fabrications, the vice president proceeded to publicize the Niger documents and encouraged the president to refer to them in his 2003 State of the Union address, deliberately obstructing the role of the CIA and promoting known forgeries to bolster his case for war.

(4) At the same time, acting personally and through his subordinates, the vice president conspired with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to create a substitute intelligence agency within the Pentagon, known as the Office of Special Plans, with instructions to contradict unfavorable information emerging from the CIA.

(5) Under this mandate, the Office of Special Plans sought to undermine the authority legally vested in the CIA, cultivating intelligence sources known to be discredited and embarking on extralegal "missions" to Iraq without consulting the nation's legitimate intelligence services.
The Stovepipe: How conflicts between the Bush Administration and the intelligence community marred the reporting on Iraq’s weapons.
...what the Bush people did was “dismantle the existing filtering process that for fifty years had been preventing the policymakers from getting bad information. They created stovepipes to get the information they wanted directly to the top leadership. Their position is that the professional bureaucracy is deliberately and maliciously keeping information from them.

“They always had information to back up their public claims, but it was often very bad information,” Pollack continued. “They were forcing the intelligence community to defend its good information and good analysis so aggressively that the intelligence analysts didn’t have the time or the energy to go after the bad information.”

The Administration eventually got its way, a former C.I.A. official said. “The analysts at the C.I.A. were beaten down defending their assessments.”
The spies who pushed for war
According to former Bush officials, all defence and intelligence sources, senior administration figures created a shadow agency of Pentagon analysts staffed mainly by ideological amateurs to compete with the CIA and its military counterpart, the Defence Intelligence Agency.

The agency, called the Office of Special Plans (OSP), was set up by the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to second-guess CIA information and operated under the patronage of hardline conservatives in the top rungs of the administration, the Pentagon and at the White House, including Vice-President Dick Cheney.

The ideologically driven network functioned like a shadow government, much of it off the official payroll and beyond congressional oversight. But it proved powerful enough to prevail in a struggle with the State Department and the CIA by establishing a justification for war.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:59 AM on January 24, 2018 [73 favorites]


On some level, I think the people who complain about "immigrants taking our jobs" know this - they see the illegal immigrants accepting less pay and being willing to scab - they just don't understand the structural reasons why it is happening do not rest on the backs of illegal immigrants.

Occam's Razor postulates that most of them are racist, and thus far what we've seen backs that up. I don't see the need to keep on inventing reasons for why people say and do racist things that aren't "racists gonna racist."
posted by zombieflanders at 12:01 PM on January 24, 2018 [30 favorites]


NPR listeners would have gotten the impression not that Nunes is running partisan interference for a treasonous president, but that there just might be something to this classified memo story

I've been reading MeFi comments about how NPR's "balanced" coverage stinks since before the 2016 election, and I have been very quick to dismiss it as being overly concerned leftists wanting more biased coverage.

I'd like to say how wrong I was.

The false equivalencies they are willing to stick out there for things that can objectively reported as bullshit...
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:03 PM on January 24, 2018 [32 favorites]


False pretenses
President George W. Bush and seven of his administration's top officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, made at least 935 false statements in the two years following September 11, 2001, about the national security threat posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Nearly five years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, an exhaustive examination of the record shows that the statements were part of an orchestrated campaign that effectively galvanized public opinion and, in the process, led the nation to war under decidedly false pretenses.
Search the 935 Iraq War false statements
In a widely-reported study of orchestrated deception, the Center [for Public Integrity] found that President Bush and seven top officials made 935 false statements leading up to the Iraq war — and offer them in a database for all to see.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:06 PM on January 24, 2018 [35 favorites]


I mean, it's not as if these people treat white workers who take on the work the same way at all. If anything, they get lauded for willing to make noble sacrifices for being bootstrappy Randian archetypes. At worst, they'll be made out to be the victims of some imagined financial or cultural "elite," but that sentiment always seems to magically disappear when PoC do the same thing.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:06 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


"Elite" of course being codeword for liberal (and probably Jewish).
posted by zombieflanders at 12:07 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


New Quinnipiac poll:
Democrats are leading Republicans by 13 points on a generic House ballot ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll found that 51 percent of voters said they want to see the Democratic Party gain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterms, while 38 percent of those polled said they wanted to see Republicans maintain control of the lower chamber.

The poll also found that 46 percent of independent voters wanted to see Democrats control the House, while 35 percent of independents said they wanted to see Republicans in control. Additional surveys show Democrats holding leads over their Republican counterparts as well.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:08 PM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


Nope. The Bush administration, led by Dick Cheney, bypassed the intelligence community and set up their own intelligence office to get the answers they wanted.

Thanks for your whole comment kirkaracha, too often I think all of this is common knowledge, and then I remember my adult children weren't at all aware of the news back then, and my conservative family members likely haven't learnt of this because of the information bubbles.
posted by mumimor at 12:09 PM on January 24, 2018 [20 favorites]


Lisa Desjardins‏ @LisaDNews
NEW - WH says it will unveil an immigration proposal Monday that will:
- Show if the president wants path to citizenship for DACA/Dreamers
- Lay out what exactly the president envisions/requires for a border wall.
Ryan is going to lose his "Trump doesn't want DACA" covering fire and now we get to see whether the House Freedom Caucus has a tight enough hold on his nuts.
posted by Talez at 12:28 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


I'm involved in the construction industry, and the situation is very similar.

I'm going to second this. People seriously underestimate the intelligence and knowledge of latin/hispanic labor, immigrant or agricultural or other and how much the US relies on it.

I don't mean to class a whole segment of people as one thing or another, but I can say that I've never seen a white/euro American construction worker or other "grunt" laborer reading Pablo Neruda on their lunch break, much less writing poetry of their own.

I know my dad's screenprinting business definitely benefited from smart hispanic/latin employees. While we were a specialty industry that didn't rely on institutional knowledge, many of or workflow innovations and methods came directly from our workers.
posted by loquacious at 12:34 PM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


Which is a remarkable admission from Limbaugh, because it concedes that the Iraq debacle made Bush the Lesser -- and by implication, Republicans -- look bad.

Limbaugh will say anything, but I think Trump deserves credit for redefining opposition to Iraq as valid position. He was the only republican candidate during the clown car debates that was willing to call Iraq a mistake and take a critical (yet misleadingly simplistic) view of Bush's handling of the war. He used it to dunk on Jeb! who had no idea how to respond to that kind of apostasy. During the general election, Trump made a big deal about his false opposition to the war because he saw that it was an issue where Obama beat Hillary in the 2008 primary, so he also had to win that point. For republicans, I think Trump has done more than anyone to redefine Iraq as a failure of policy and governance.
posted by peeedro at 12:37 PM on January 24, 2018 [11 favorites]


For republicans, I think Trump has done more than anyone to redefine Iraq as a failure of policy and governance.

Yes but without any conversation about "hmm how did this happen (both the decision to go to war, and how the war and subsequent occupation were then conducted)".

Trump just let Republicans dump it all down the memory hole.
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:48 PM on January 24, 2018 [17 favorites]


The sad thing is that the least believable part of this story is the thought that the President will finally be clear -- but not today, no; in a few more days, finally, for real this time.

Sure. Because by then he'll have seen all the talking heads on tv - mostly on Fox - go on about what they think and what he should do and what their opinion of his choices are.

As far as the idea that he'll then stick to that opinion - I don't see anything in that language that indicates that.
posted by phearlez at 12:51 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


regarding Trump on Iraq:

even a bull in a china shop is right twice a day
posted by idiopath at 12:56 PM on January 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


Yes but without any conversation about "hmm how did this happen (both the decision to go to war, and how the war and subsequent occupation were then conducted)".

Trump just let Republicans dump it all down the memory hole.


Remember, conservative policy preferences can't fail, they can only be failed.

Which is just what the Communists used to say.
posted by Gelatin at 12:59 PM on January 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


I'm involved in the construction industry, and the situation is very similar.

I'm going to second this. People seriously underestimate the intelligence and knowledge of latin/hispanic labor, immigrant or agricultural or other and how much the US relies on it.


I'll third it. I've previously recounted my tale of hiring a master mason to lay a course of block so my buddy and I could learn from him. That guy was Latino.
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:02 PM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


On some level, I think the people who complain about "immigrants taking our jobs" know this - they see the illegal immigrants accepting less pay and being willing to scab - they just don't understand the structural reasons why it is happening do not rest on the backs of illegal immigrants.

"I'll tell you what's at the bottom of it. If you can convince the lowest x he's better than the best y, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
posted by entropicamericana at 1:09 PM on January 24, 2018 [23 favorites]


Limbaugh will say anything, but I think Trump deserves credit for redefining opposition to Iraq as valid position. He was the only republican candidate during the clown car debates that was willing to call Iraq a mistake and take a critical (yet misleadingly simplistic) view of Bush's handling of the war. He used it to dunk on Jeb! who had no idea how to respond to that kind of apostasy. During the general election, Trump made a big deal about his false opposition to the war because he saw that it was an issue where Obama beat Hillary in the 2008 primary, so he also had to win that point. For republicans, I think Trump has done more than anyone to redefine Iraq as a failure of policy and governance.

This is an interesting aspect of the 2016 campaign, and one reason why people in the press, at least, were so willing to take Trump as an anti-war isolationist despite his obvious bellicosity toward Iran, as seen in his rhetoric about the Iran Deal. It's almost as hard for the Democratic Party to respond to this superficially anti-war rhetoric as it was for Jeb and other so-called conventional Republicans, because so many of its prominent people, still prominent today, far from opposing the war, went along with it, and when they regained power, they dispensed with the anti-war movement and turned the Global War on Terror to a lower volume.

But even acknowledging that, it's very weird to see Limbaugh suddenly brush aside his previous support for the Iraq War and pretend that it was all a trick on Bush by the intelligence community, which, though in no way blameless for its frankly evil conduct throughout the War on Terror, can't be held responsible for a war which the administration urged on despite its warnings to the contrary. I guess bare-faced lies like this, plus the grotesquery of the Trump administration, explain Bush's current depressingly favorable approval ratings.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 1:24 PM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


Jerusalem Post:

Kerry to Abbas Confidante: `Stay Strong and Do Not Give in to Trump’
According to Kerry, Trump will not remain in office for a long time. It was reported that within a year there was a good chance that Trump would not be in the White House.
Sounds good!
Kerry offered his help to the Palestinians in an effort to advance the peace process and recommended that Abbas present his own peace plan.
Interesting and (IMO) helpful suggestion!
Kerry hinted that many in the American establishment, as well as in American intelligence, are dissatisfied with Trump's performance and the way he leads America.
Not exactly a surprise!
He surprised his interlocutor by saying he was seriously considering running for president in 2020. When asked about his advanced age, he said he was not much older than Trump and would not have an age problem.
OH FFS KERRY YOU CAN FSCK RIGHT OFF NOW YOU DISGUSTING SHOWBOAT
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:24 PM on January 24, 2018 [31 favorites]


Apply Kerry to your base two to three times per day to soothe overactive spots and wrinkles.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:29 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


Hi, I'm John Kerry. I ran against one of the least engaged, dumbest, and least popular presidents in US history, largely on a platform of Look at That Guy, At Least I'm Not Him, and I lost. And I will light the spark that will reignite the passion in the US voting popula
posted by middleclasstool at 1:31 PM on January 24, 2018 [67 favorites]


Old Democratic white dudes need to SIT the fuck DOWN.

That goes double for those that already had a failed run. SIT. DOWN.

Meanwhile in Dallas, the Dems are not going to sit back and let the Republicans fuck up their primary.

Dallas County Democratic Party (DCDP) lead attorney Randy Johnston will assert that the Republican's case is completely baseless and should be dismissed as frivolous litigation. The answer will seek sanctions and legal fees and counter the falsehoods perpetuated by the Republican Party lawsuit.

The DCDP legal team is also evaluating whether the Republican Party lawsuit violates the federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 because it appears calculated to deny minorities the right to vote for candidates of their own ethnicity and disproportionately harms minority Democratic candidates.

The first version of the Republican Party petition was apparently released to the press before it was even filed, and it contained the private information - including home addresses, email addresses, phone numbers and other private information - of elected officials and candidates that could lead to identity theft or other harm. Among the judges whose private information was released are several judges who have active stalkers and who have received death threats.

The Republican lawsuit includes numerous inaccuracies that have been repeated by the news media as if they were true. For example, Chair Carol Donovan did not improperly file ballot applications merely because she did not personally sign each application. The election code does not designate the Chair as the only person authorized to sign. This is simply misinformation. In addition, the Republican Party lawsuit alleges that Carol Donovan's signature was forged on ballot applications, and some news outlets have repeated this false information as if it were true. In fact, with the explicit instruction of the Texas Democratic Party, which also uses agents to sign applications, Chair Carol Donovan legally appointed the DCDP Executive Director, Carmen Ayala, as an additional agent authorized to sign ballot applications. The signatures that are being called dubious are in fact the signature of Carmen Ayala, acting in her appointed role as agent authorized to sign.

posted by emjaybee at 1:35 PM on January 24, 2018 [53 favorites]


Mod note: Several deleted. Let's take it as read that nobody's enthused to see Kerry run, and let's not fill up the thread with a bunch of predictable snark about him running in here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:37 PM on January 24, 2018 [7 favorites]


NT Alexandra Petri, WaPo: The new and improved Bible for evangelical Trump supporters
It is past time that evangelicals stop letting the Bible dictate how they feel about things. This nonsense book full of terrible, outdated opinions has kicked them around long enough, and it is good that they are taking a stand and making some updates. I have taken the liberty of revising this ancient text in light of this new attitude. Look, I’m an Episcopalian, which means, for the most part, that “if it happened 500 years ago, we are just fine with it, whatever it is, and we would like everyone to be able to do it now,” and I am not used to this kind of radical revision. But I guess what you lose in tradition you gain in charisma.

Please use the following updated edition of the Beatitudes and other scriptural highlights:

Turn the other cheek. You only have two cheeks.

Suffer little children to come unto me unless of course they are immigrants who all are probably affiliated with ISIS in some way and we are quite right to want nothing to do with them.

Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. I will be the greatest president God ever created.

Blessed are those who mourn, for they will pay no inheritance tax.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:40 PM on January 24, 2018 [25 favorites]


Throwing the economy off a cliff in the service of making America purer and free of any taint of foreign contact is a noble aim, a martyrdom which will strengthen the nation. Only those visitors who are prepared to worship at the appropriate shrines will be welcome: the rest can stay out and keep their filthy money to themselves. Don't need 'em, don't wan't em.

Fortunately, the views of Trumploving base deplorables about massive losses in tourism $$ don't mean shit. The views of rich-ass donors and hedge-fund assholes and captains of industry do, and they tend not to be thrilled with lucrative economic sectors tanking -- although they manage to make a buck regardless. And of course, between the plague of deregulation, selling off national parks, Tax Scam, etc., they're pretty far in the black thus far.
posted by FelliniBlank at 1:51 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


Fortunately, the views of Trumploving base deplorables about massive losses in tourism $$ don't mean shit.

I dunno.

Southern Utah is TRUMP country, and he won there by solid double digits. But at the peak of the oil and uranium days, it was a two stoplight shithole with an entrance to Arches NP.

Show up there on a random summer Saturday night now, and you'll see the Disneyland of the Desert. Crowded streets and restaurants, no vacancy at the hotels and every campsite in 20 miles full up.

Oil dollars come up out of the ground and go to Dallas or Dubai. Tourism dollars go to the Mom and Pop restaurant and workers, and stays nearby. A 20% drop in tourism would be crushing for that economy.

But, you know, leopards and faces and all that.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 2:02 PM on January 24, 2018 [19 favorites]


NBC: Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs. Travel to the U.S. has been on the decline ever since President Donald Trump took office, and new data shows the slump translates to a cost of $4.6 billion in lost spending and 40,000 jobs.

This is gonna be a huge shot to the chin to Florida and, I suspect, any other state that doesn't have an income tax and relies on sales taxes to cover their expenditures. Growing up in Florida I remember the endless boom and bust cycle as tourism ebbed and flowed and the state was starved for the tax income they relied on to pay for things. The cost goes beyond that immediate spending and jobs; there'll be consequences in those states in the years to come.
posted by phearlez at 2:13 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


Show up there on a random summer Saturday night now, and you'll see the Disneyland of the Desert. Crowded streets and restaurants, no vacancy at the hotels and every campsite in 20 miles full up.

Is that international tourism? (Just curious.) If it is, then yeah, leopards and faces, but I'm not sure it will get blamed on Trump, because that would require people to connect the "oh, you mean if our President and culture act like vile racists, bigots, and general dicks, it may cause people not to come visit our fair land?" dots. They're never going to blame a Republican for . . . anything, really, but certainly not fucking up the economy.

But the money people will, and they have the wherewithall to exert direct influence if it behooves them to.
posted by FelliniBlank at 2:23 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


Mod note: Several comments deleted. Let's not launch off into speculative apologia or whatever for Manning; either there will eventually be something solid to talk about there or there won't be, and in the meantime it benefits nothing for people to fight about it here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 2:26 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


Is that international tourism? (Just curious.)

Yeah. If you want to practice a foreign language, go to Arches. It'll sound like a meeting of the UN on the trail to Delicate Arch.

Grand Canyon, Zion, Bryce - international tourists are a big part of the crush every year. And they usually spend far more per capita than the Americans do.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 2:32 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


It feels like we might need a dedicated thread for Manning, especially as the primary approaches.
posted by Merus at 2:33 PM on January 24, 2018 [1 favorite]


Republicans Are Using the Russian Playbook on the FBI (Jonathan Chait | NY Mag)
Odds are, you don’t remember any of the particular revelations contained in the stolen emails from John Podesta and the Democratic National Committee. But when WikiLeaks published them two years ago, they created a furor. The snippets of conversation, wrenched out of context, seemed to supply hidden evidence of what Hillary Clinton’s critics on both the left and the right already suspected. Here was Clinton scheming, using crass political logic and language, deriding Bernie Sanders, and acknowledging her weaknesses.

One of the reasons Clinton’s left-wing critics dismissed charges of Russian hacking was that they feared the crime would overshadow the apparently revelatory emails. “The ‘outrage’ over Russia’s ‘hidden hand’ is being used to outweigh the damning substance of the leak itself,” complained Adam Johnson. “Neo-McCarthyism now threatens to derail a vital debate over the substance of the 20,000-plus e-mails, made public by WikiLeaks on July 22, that reveal the purportedly neutral Democratic National Committee’s derision and contempt for Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign — as well as several aborted attempts to tip the scales against him,” asserted The Nation.

The email hacks did not actually reveal anything nearly so incriminating. What the episode showed was that, if hostile actors are allowed to peek into a vast trove of their target’s private thoughts, they can usually find something that sounds shady. This is exactly the method Republicans are now using to discredit the FBI.

Republicans didn’t steal messages from the FBI. They happened upon them because two FBI agents, Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, happened to be having an affair, and since they used their phones to communicate (to avoid detection by their spouses), the messages they sent fell into the laps of Congress. For weeks, Republicans have followed the WikiLeaks formula with these texts, selectively leaking snippets of conversation to feed a distorted story line to the media. ...

Note that a Strzok text expressing his view that Trump would not be charged over Russia became evidence of a nefarious plot against Trump, and another Strzok text expressing a view that Clinton would not be charged over the emails became evidence of a nefarious plot to help Clinton. If Strzok had expressed a belief that Clinton or Trump were guilty, those messages would become scandals, too. This is the way the game works. When you begin with a suspicious of nefarious intent, a captured expression of candid thought can be turned into devastating evidence.

When they hacked Democratic emails, Russians were counting on a gullible mainstream news media and an unprincipled right-wing echo chamber to transform a bunch of trivial internal communications into a pseudo-scandal by wrenching them from all context. It is ironic that the current Republican effort to dismiss the very real scandal that arose from those hacks is using the exact same method.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 2:39 PM on January 24, 2018 [63 favorites]


Gotta love when Fox News blows up a narrative half of Fox's hosts are shilling. A Fox News Exclusive...

Thousands of FBI cellphones affected by glitch that lost Strzok-Page texts, officials say
Thousands of FBI cellphones were affected by the technical glitch that the DOJ says prevented five months’ worth of text messages between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page from being stored or uploaded into the bureau’s archive system, federal law enforcement officials tell Fox News.

The missing messages have been at the center of a storm of controversy on Capitol Hill, after the DOJ notified congressional committees that there is a gap in records between Dec. 14, 2016, and May 17, 2017. Strzok and Page are under scrutiny after it was revealed that the former members of Robert Mueller's team exchanged a series of anti-Trump texts during the presidential campaign.

The gap in records covered a crucial period, raising suspicion among GOP lawmakers about how those messages disappeared.

But Fox News is told that the glitch affected the phones of “nearly” 10 percent of the FBI’s 35,000 employees.
posted by chris24 at 2:44 PM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]



Southern Utah is TRUMP country, and he won there by solid double digits. But at the peak of the oil and uranium days, it was a two stoplight shithole with an entrance to Arches NP.

Show up there on a random summer Saturday night now, and you'll see the Disneyland of the Desert. Crowded streets and restaurants, no vacancy at the hotels and every campsite in 20 miles full up.

Oil dollars come up out of the ground and go to Dallas or Dubai. Tourism dollars go to the Mom and Pop restaurant and workers, and stays nearby. A 20% drop in tourism would be crushing for that economy.


The three counties in Utah that hold Grand Staircase-Escalante and Bears Ears, plus act as a gateway to any popular destinations, have a total population of 28,000. And they cover 18,000 square miles. Many of these people have done very well with the tourism. But a lot of others hate all the traffic and the outsiders and they wish they'd just go away. Those people would just blame the economic slump on Obama and Clinton locking up all the coal. They think that oil, gas and coal is going to be a bonanza for them. It won't be. The companies will come in, drain the resources, and leave, and then both resource extraction AND tourism will be dead.
posted by azpenguin at 2:57 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


FBI AGENT #1: Man, that Trump. What a dipshit.

FBI AGENT #2: I know, right?

TRUMP: TREASON! COLLUSION!

*flashback*

TRUMP: I will tell you this, Russia: If you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.

TRUMP: NO COLLUSION! NO COLLUSION! NO COLLUSION!
posted by valkane at 3:06 PM on January 24, 2018 [52 favorites]


Trump Says He Is Willing to Speak Under Oath to Mueller
He's probably certain he can fix it all with his superior deal-maker skills
posted by mumimor at 3:06 PM on January 24, 2018 [49 favorites]


More likely Trump wants to continue to give the appearance of cooperation - "I’m looking forward to it," he said, like nobody under federal investigative ever - while his allies on Capitol Hill and Fox News proceed with undermining Mueller any way they can.

Nonetheless, this was one of Trump's off-the-cuff statements that looks quite telling in full. ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl asked him:
KARL : Are you going to talk to Mueller?

TRUMP: I’m looking forward to it actually – Just so you understand. There’s been no collusion whatsoever. There’s no obstruction whatsoever. And I’m looking forward to it.
Trump's lawyers, having apparently convinced their client their client that he's facing an obstruction of justice charge, must be tearing out their hair over his blurting this out.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:22 PM on January 24, 2018 [16 favorites]


Trump Says He Is Willing to Speak Under Oath to Mueller

This is tempered by Trump's well known history of talking bullshit, and I'll believe it when I see it.

Of course, whether Trump is willing or not is irrelevant if Mueller calls him to the stand during a trial for say, members of his election campaign.
posted by mikelieman at 3:23 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


Trump's lawyers, having apparently convinced their client their client that he's facing an obstruction of justice charge, must be tearing out their hair over his blurting this out.

Well, if they have any hair left then there's also this beauty:

He also said he would be willing to answer questions under oath, but not until after asking whether Hillary Clinton, his 2016 campaign rival, has spoken under oath to the F.B.I. in the investigation into her use of a private email server while she served as secretary of state.
posted by azpenguin at 3:25 PM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


Trump Says He Is Willing to Speak Under Oath to Mueller

ohpleaseohpleaseohplease.gif

jonstewartgiddy.gif

colberteatingpopcorn.gif

As someone who is plagued by self-doubt and lack of confidence, I'm simultaneously baffled and impressed by Trump's sense of self-efficacy: he thinks he can swagger in and roll somebody like Mueller.

I mean, I guess he has some evidence of his dominance in the form of people like Sessions, Cruz, Tillerson, Preibus and a few others drinking a nice big cup of STFU and ThankYouSirMayIHaveAnother at his command, but...damn!
posted by lord_wolf at 3:25 PM on January 24, 2018 [13 favorites]


Relax, he probably just hadn't yet been told what his opinions are or what he's willing to do that day. I'm sure the people in charge in the White House just didn't fill him in on that detail after his daily reset.
posted by mrgoat at 3:28 PM on January 24, 2018 [1 favorite]


Also significant from Trump's comments:
President Trump said Wednesday he is "looking forward" to testifying before special counsel Robert S. Mueller III and that he would speak under oath.

"I would love to do it, and I would like to do it as soon as possible," Trump said at the White House. "I would do it under oath, absolutely."

The president suggested he was being investigated for obstruction of justice as part of the Russia investigation because he was "fighting back" and reiterated there was "no collusion" between his campaign and Moscow.

"Oh well, did he fight back?" Trump said, "You fight back, oh, it's obstruction."
He seems to not understand what obstruction of justice is and thinks whatever he did is ok because he was "fighting back."
posted by zachlipton at 3:33 PM on January 24, 2018 [52 favorites]



DoJ Warns That #ReleasetheMemo Would Be ‘Extraordinarily Reckless’


OK, I don't yet think this is a coup, but it is seriously an attempt at a coup. I really hope American democracy is capable of fighting back.
posted by mumimor at 3:36 PM on January 24, 2018 [19 favorites]


Boy, that memo must be chock full of secrets that reveal Trump as a true American hero. What I can’t figure out is why they want to keep it secret. My best guess is they just haven’t figured out how to spellcheck it yet. Or maybe the printer is out of paper, and the intern isn’t around. Or maybe it’s pure propoganda with enough state secrets spinkled in to make it toxic. Sure is a mystery.
posted by valkane at 3:47 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


@passantino: Trump: "I couldn't have cared less about Russians having to do with my campaign."

I think he thinks 'I didn't care whether Russia was helping my campaign' is exonerating.
posted by zachlipton at 3:56 PM on January 24, 2018 [36 favorites]


I'm as impressed as I am repelled. I know it's too much to expect the media to actually have a spine, but I thought at the very least they'd have the self awareness to know when they were being played.

Ditto. I didn't think Nunes was capable of something like that.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:27 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


I'm pretty sure Trump has no idea what collusion is. "Colluuusion... that's like... a collision, only with more U? A u-collision? Like when U COLLIDE into something? Well, I didn't collide into Russia, that's for sure. So, no collusion."

(Fake, in case I needed to say that.)

I'm also pretty sure that he believes that telling the truth will guarantee he didn't do anything wrong. (And that his notion of "truth" is pretty slippery, but that's a secondary issue.) He believes only crimes of direct violence are real crimes, and everything else is business negotiations. I don't think he has any comprehension that there are felonies, as in go-to-prison-for-decades, where money moves around and nobody gets physically injured. I don't think he understands that fraud is actually a crime, much less something as nebulous as obstruction, or collusion that he can't even define.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:40 PM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


I'm pretty sure he's terrified but has been convinced he has no choice, and is putting on a brave face.
posted by Coventry at 4:44 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


I think he thinks 'I didn't care whether Russia was helping my campaign' is exonerating.

It may be a new location for the goalposts they're workshopping, see this exchange between SHS and Haberman today: Trump won because he's the best, whatever Russia did had nothing to do with it. That's what "no collusion" currently means.
posted by peeedro at 4:46 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


I'm as impressed as I am repelled. I know it's too much to expect the media to actually have a spine, but I thought at the very least they'd have the self awareness to know when they were being played.

Journalism might be a vital check on government and the powers that be, but it's effectively just another part of the entertainment industry. Nunes' story was designed to be entertaining and it was accepted as "news" on that basis. It's Gresham's Law applied to politics. See also: why you guys have an orange potato for President. I don't know if there's any solution to this until and unless the indictments start flying.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:47 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


See also: why you guys have an orange potato for President.

Second only to voting in the "mad monk" and then complaining the NBN is fucked up just like him and his buddies promised.
posted by Talez at 4:50 PM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


“Couldn’t care less...” plus “no collusion no cullusion no collusion” I think means the defense they are evolving toward is “okay we knew they were working on our behalf, but we didn’t, you know, coordinate with them or anything.”

It’ll be fun when half a news cycle later Ron Howard tells us they did.
posted by notyou at 4:57 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


I’d like to do that as soon as possible,” the president told reporters on Wednesday, adding that his lawyers have told him it would be “about two to three weeks” until it takes place.

I'm just going to go ahead and put that in the pile with everything else he's said will happen in "two weeks."
posted by nubs at 5:09 PM on January 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


I think the defense is actually going to be “sure, we worked with Russia during the campaign but I would have won anyway so it doesn’t matter.”

And what enrages me is that half the country will nod along and feel like that settles it.
posted by lydhre at 5:11 PM on January 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


While we're talking about industries reliant both on the labor and institutional expertise of Latinx immigrants, don't forget restaurant kitchens. Immigrant cooks are the backbone of all kitchens in this country, and more and more frequently also the management, especially in fast food environments.

You haven't known hardworking people until you know people like one of my husband's employees that manages one fast food restaurant kitchen, works as a cook in another restaurant, and is going to English classes so he can go to community college.
posted by threeturtles at 5:13 PM on January 24, 2018 [24 favorites]


Bloomberg, Trump Says He’s Weighing Path to Citizenship for ‘Dreamers’
There would be a 10- to 12-year process for those now protected from deportation under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals to get citizenship if they work and maintain a clean criminal record, Trump told reporters Wednesday at an impromptu appearance at a White House briefing.

“We’re going to morph into it. It’s gonna happen at some point in the future, over a period of 10-12 years,” Trump said. “I think it’s a nice thing to have the incentive of after a period of years being able to become a citizen."

An administration official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, later clarified that the path to citizenship is a discussion point rather than a planned policy proposal.
Trump is not actually the President, part #3213523.
posted by zachlipton at 5:13 PM on January 24, 2018 [35 favorites]




The reporters had gathered for a briefing from a senior official detailing the administration’s plans to stick to a restrictive immigration agenda when the president dropped in unprompted and made his remarks.

skinNER
posted by theodolite at 5:23 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]



An administration official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity


Kelly?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 5:26 PM on January 24, 2018


I finally found a single positive thing to say about Trump: he is well on his way to giving every shithead who works for him a perforated ulcer with this impromptu trolling. Stephen Miller probably already has made a workers' comp claim for carpal tunnel syndrome caused by repetitive facepalming.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:29 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


Trump is basically that guy at a party who walks up to the table at some crucial moment where people are playing Jenga, leans through the huddled group like "what you gotta do is take this one" and topples the entire tower.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:32 PM on January 24, 2018 [51 favorites]


Small bits of schadenfreude for everyone via Buzzfeed and the dating app Bumble:

The pro-Trump activist and troll Jack Posobiec was booted from the dating app Bumble for violating its “values,” after a woman complained on Twitter about seeing his profile. Posobiec denied to BuzzFeed News that he has ever had a Bumble account. But the company says that the account is connected to his real Facebook account. It has been inactive since 2016.

On Wednesday morning, Twitter user Lindsey Ledford tweeted a screenshot of what appeared to be Posobiec’s account, calling him a "white nationalist."


“Bumble was founded on the core values of kindness, respect, integrity and equality," the tweet [from Bumble] said, "and we do not tolerate anyone who does not uphold these values on our platform.”

Also, Posobiec was married in November of 2017.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:32 PM on January 24, 2018 [17 favorites]


Ugh. Josh Marshall of TPM has another tidbit we missed: Noted nutbag Lou Dobbs is shilling about a "secret society against Trump" within the government. Looks like they're trial ballooning firing Muller as a part of some DoJ purge.

The article is literally titled "You Need To Watch This"
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 5:34 PM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


From TD Strange’s Washington Examiner link about Ted Cruz and one last shot at repealing Obamacare:
One of the stumbling blocks during last year’s healthcare push was that the CBO estimates of the increase in uninsured under Republican bills, which was substantially attributed to the repeal of the mandate. For instance, in one score of a draft of the Senate bill in June, the CBO found that 22 million fewer would be uninsured, and that 15 million of that would be due to the repeal of the individual mandate.

Now that the mandate is off the books, any CBO score would have to compare repeal and replace legislation against a new reality in which no mandate exists, which in turn could make any estimate more favorable.
Indeed, you ghoul, your estimate is “more feasible” because you’ve already booted those 15 million from the ranks of the insured via the tax bill.
posted by notyou at 5:34 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


Noted nutbag Lou Dobbs is shilling about a "secret society against Trump" within the government.

There were some developments on this since Lou Dobbs did his thing. A bunch of Republicans, including RonJohn and Gowdy, started this "secret society" talk and refused to provide any context so it sounds as suspicious as possible. Johnson even claimed this society was having "secret, off-site meetings." This was too much even for Fox News, which eventually pushed Johnson to admit that wasn't even in the message.

The actual context is a text message from Page to Strzok the day after the election:
“Are you even going to give out your calendars?,” Page asks Strzok. “Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society.”
Nobody exactly knows what that means, but it's a single text message that's clearly an offhand joke the day after the election rather than an organized conspiracy within the Justice Department. And then nobody has bothered to come forward with other evidence of said society actually existing.

This has been today's edition of Making Conspiracies Out Of Nothing, from the party that brought you Pizzagate.
posted by zachlipton at 5:43 PM on January 24, 2018 [40 favorites]


Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom):

When you think about it, the Nunes play on this report is brilliant. Write something supposedly damning. Circulate it. Elevate it to urban legend status. Refuse to release it. Blame that on others. Then toy with releasing it - minus the underlying materials. /1

Create a situation in which a report written by a Trump stalwart, using classified material, becomes "The Report," like "The Dossier" only better. Let the fight over "The Report" drag on, while others pump a hashtag picked up and amplified by Russian bots. /2

Meanwhile, the central contention - FBI misconduct - becomes cemented through repetition in the minds of the usual chumps without anyone ever having to see it and without any way to rebut any of the claims in it - whatever they are. /3

Next move: start fighting over what can or cannot be declassified. Maybe release a bowdlerized version that redacts material that would be crucial to a rebuttal. By then, no one cares: the central notion is already out and a pillar of the Trump defense, true or not. /4x
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:54 PM on January 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


An administration official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity

Just a reminder: in previous administrations this wording was used, e.g. to deliver the President's own views or to make a policy statement in a way that's plausibly deniable. Now it's being used in reverse: to reassure people that the President's actual statements are just mouth-noises. It's like a regency without a regent.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:00 PM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


@MikeDelMoro (ABC)
ABC News has obtained the "secret society" text...

It's a stand alone message from Lisa Page:
"Are you even going to give out your calendars? Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society"


@KevinMKruse
Watching clips of Fox News pundits take a clearly sarcastic text about a "secret society" literally, I'm starting to understand why conservative efforts to copy the Daily Show always crashed and burned.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 PM on January 24, 2018 [75 favorites]


And you know the next time one of their pet Nazi shitheads says something gross and awful, it's going to be "just a joke, God why are liberals so humorless?"
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:07 PM on January 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


Smash Their Eyeglasses!
Roy Edroso is puzzled by the right-wing war on the intelligence community: [...]

Edroso is about my age -- we were under-18s during the late '60s and early '70s -- so he remembers that the culture war then was between shorthairs and longhairs, people who wore white shirts and ties with gray suits and people who hoped they never would. The people at the intelligence agencies were solidly in the former category. How did they get lumped in with the hippies?

Well, we're all seen now as just one undifferentiated mass of experts, which is the worst thing you can be in the world in the opinion of the right. [...]

The distrust of expertise has one exception: Corporate chieftains are still valorized on the right (maybe because their expertise is linked to their appetite for money, or maybe because right-wingers assume that plutocrats get rich solely on that appetite, along with, perhaps, some intuitive, non-fact-based genius for dealmaking, which is what they think Donald Trump has).

Right-wingers still value law and order -- they love ICE, they love the cops, they love the military. They apparently don't think the military and law enforcement require any knowledge or insight or strategy, just jingoism and machismo.

The intelligence agencies are now regarded as full of sinister eggheads. We're a long way from FBI G-men fighting gangsters with Tommy guns (or fighting the Black Panthers). That's what changed.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:11 PM on January 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


Nah, they loved Comey and the FBI right until they were a problem for Trump instead of Clinton. It's just protect-our-guy personality cultism.
posted by theodolite at 6:17 PM on January 24, 2018 [24 favorites]


No, Republicans would still love the FBI if they were locking up Hilary Clinton on false charges and opening investigations on every potential 2020 Democrat. What changed is Republicans committed treason en mass in order to maintain a permanent grip on power, and a functioning intelligence agency is an impediment to their intention to transition to an authoritarian client state with them as the puppet power.

Republicans do hate science, and expertise, and knowledge, but their attack on the FBI and "deep state" isn't about any of that. It's about overthrowing the rule of law, with the aid of a foreign white nationalist authoritarian power, and remaking American democracy so that it's impossible for them to ever again lose power to a black man (much less a woman, or worst of all, a black woman).
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:18 PM on January 24, 2018 [66 favorites]


Josh Dawsey, David Nakamura and Devlin Barrett, WaPo: Trump says he would speak to Mueller under oath in Russia investigation

This bit right here:
People who have appeared before Mueller’s team say prosecutors have detailed accounts of events, sometimes to the minute, and have surprised witnesses by showing them emails or documents they were unaware that the team had or that their colleagues had written. One person said Mueller’s team has asked about Trump’s private comments around key events and how he explained decisions.

“They are looking for a pattern,” said this person, who has spoken with Mueller’s team and requested anonymity to speak about a federal investigation.

Among Trump’s friends, there is a prevailing view that he could damage himself by testifying under oath because he often misrepresents events and that he is listening to lawyers who are not giving him good advice.

Oh please, oh please…
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:48 PM on January 24, 2018 [37 favorites]


So either Paul Manafort's lawyers are grossly incompetent or they just want us to think they are. You make the call.

Errant court filing suggests feds had informant at Manafort firm.
A document that former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort's attorneys appear to have accidentally filed in court Wednesday suggests that federal investigators had an informant inside Manafort's consulting firm who provided information about his financial dealings.

The one-page memo submitted along with a routine scheduling motion seems to have been prepared by a defense lawyer or investigator trying to assemble information that could support a claim by Manafort's defense of improper contacts between the prosecution team—now headed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller—and the media.

The document, titled "DOJ, OSC and the Press," says that a reporter appeared to have obtained access to internal documents from the firm founded by Manafort, Davis Manafort Partners International.

The memo indicates that an affidavit for a seizure warrant obtained by prosecutors on the same day Manafort was indicted in October says that a Davis Manafort staffer acknowledged allowing a journalist to look at the firm's digital records.
posted by scalefree at 6:55 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


More cleanup on Aisle WTF-Did-The-President-Just-Say:

@mkraju: WH statement on Trump’s comments tonight about speaking under oath to Mueller: “While Mr. Trump was speaking hurriedly before departing for Davos, he remains committed to continued complete cooperation with the OSC and is looking forward to speaking with Mr. Mueller.” - Ty Cobb

I, for one, can't wait until Ty Cobb is explaining that Trump didn't commit perjury because he was speaking hurriedly when he was interviewed under oath.
posted by zachlipton at 6:58 PM on January 24, 2018 [43 favorites]


ABC has posted the audio to a segment from Trump's "hurried" remarks, and as usual, the unedited transcript sounds so much worse than the quotes the news has been picking from it:
JONATHAN KARL : Are you going to talk to Mueller?
TRUMP: I’m looking forward to it actually – Just so you understand. There’s been no collusion whatsoever. There’s no obstruction whatsoever. And I’m looking forward to it. I do worry when I look at all of the things that you people don't report about with what's happening, when you take a look at, you know, the five months worth of missing texts. That's a lot of missing texts. And as I said yesterday, that's prime time. So, you do sort of look at that and say what's going on? You look at certain text where they talk about insurance policies or insurance, where they say the kinds of things they're saying. You've got to be concerned. But I would love to do that, and I'd like to do it as soon as possible.
REPORTER: Do you have a date set?
TRUMP: I don't know, no. I guess you're talking about two or three weeks. But I would love to do it. I have to say, subject to my lawyers and all of that.
REPORTER: Would you do it under oath, Mr. President?
TRUMP: You mean like Hillary did it under oath? Who said that?
REPORTER: I said that. Would you do it under oath?
TRUMP: Oh you said it. You say a lot. Did Hillary do it under oath?
REPORTER: I have no idea, but I'm not asking you about…
TRUMP: I think you have an idea. Do you not have an idea? You really not have an idea? I'll give you an idea. She didn't do it under oath. I would do it under oath. But I would do it. And you know she didn't do it under oath, right? If you didn't know that about Hillary, then you're not…
REPORTER: To reach a higher standard, you would do it under oath, correct?
TRUMP: I would do it under oath. Absolutely.
Although Trump threw out his favorite "two weeks" estimate for when he'd sit down with Mueller, these remarks represent a massive shift in his public position. When he was last pressed about this only two weeks ago, he told reporters at a joint press conference with the Norwegian Prime Minister, "Certainly I'll see what happens, but when they have no collusion and nobody has found any collusion at any level, it seems unlikely that you'd even have an interview."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:11 PM on January 24, 2018 [38 favorites]


This segment at the end (audio) where in one minute, Trump doesn't understand the difference between fighting back and obstruction, says there's no collusion because "I couldn't have cared less about having Russians having to do with my campaign," and anyway he won because he was a better candidate than Hillary Clinton, "one of the greatest candidates." So much nonsense in one minute.
posted by zachlipton at 7:16 PM on January 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Verge, Loren Grush, Trump administration wants to end NASA funding for the International Space Station by 2025
The Trump administration is preparing to end support for the International Space Station program by 2025, according to a draft budget proposal reviewed by The Verge. Without the ISS, American astronauts could be grounded on Earth for years with no destination in space until NASA develops new vehicles for its deep space travel plans.

The draft may change before an official budget request is released on February 12th. However, two people familiar with the matter have confirmed to The Verge that the directive will be in the final proposal. We reached out to NASA for comment, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
posted by zachlipton at 7:17 PM on January 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


The Washington Post has now published a complete transcript. He's decompensating before our very eyes.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:22 PM on January 24, 2018 [15 favorites]


Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff:

FBI SECRET SOCIETY TEXTS, DECODED

OMG = “oust my government”
LOL = “lose our leadership”
BRB = “bring righteous bloodshed”
TTYL = “topple tyranny, yay liberty”
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:28 PM on January 24, 2018 [51 favorites]


The reporter in the Washington Post transcript that Doktor Zed linked to totally Duck Season/Rabbit Seasoned Trump there, perhaps inadvertently.
posted by mollweide at 7:36 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


From that transcript:
Wait. In Virginia, you don't have to spend the money. So I never checked as to whether or not they spent the money on the campaign. How much of the money did he spend on the campaign, do you know — she — how much was it?
Wait. The odds of that $130k of campaign money being funnelled to Essential Consultants LLC just went up.
posted by holgate at 7:37 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


That poor old dotard is never going to get over the whole Hillary thing is he
posted by yhbc at 7:38 PM on January 24, 2018 [40 favorites]


The Washington Post has now published a complete transcript. He's decompensating before our very eyes.

Two horrifying thoughts upon reading that Washington Post transcript:

(1) Don't follow the rabbit-hole you'll find if you google 'decompensating', and (2) This reads like all the other undedited Donald J. Trump transcripts, and I consider this a fairly accurate preview of any other interview he gives -- including to Mueller's team.
posted by mikelieman at 7:40 PM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]



I think you have an idea. Don't you have an idea? Do you not have an idea? Do you really not have an idea? I'll give you an idea. Listen, but I would do it. I am very disturbed. That's disturbing. This isn't now. Now Terry is Hillary. That's the way it fell. He's been there. It's one of those things. It's very interesting.

I only repeat for the purposes of making you understand. Goodbye, everybody.


I feel a strange peace creeping over me
posted by queenofbithynia at 7:53 PM on January 24, 2018 [20 favorites]


Reading the transcript we know what he saw in applicant for campaign Carter Page.
posted by notyou at 7:54 PM on January 24, 2018 [9 favorites]


Of note:

Robert Davenport‏ @citynightcap
GOP has very clever plan to gut every National Park, National Monument and National Forest by establishing locally dominated management boards with legal right to sell or lease property. Bears Ears and Grand Staircase are the testbeds. We Ds have no plan to defeat this. None.

James Gleick @JamesGleick
The Party in power is committed to taking the nation’s shared wealth and handing it over to oligarchs. Just as Putin did in Russia.
posted by bluecore at 8:00 PM on January 24, 2018 [89 favorites]


The best words, from a man who has said a lot of things and has a very good brain
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:02 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


There's no way his lawyers will actually let Trump speak under oath. If Trump actually follows through it will be against the wishes of every single one of his advisors and lawyers because we all know that if Trump is allowed to talk for more than a few seconds he is guaranteed to stupidly lie about something. If he takes an oath and says anything other than "I invoke my privilege against self-incrimination under the fifth amendment to the US Constitution" he will commit perjury.

I'm not sure what would be better, Trump being interviewed under oath and pleading the fifth in response to every question, or Trump being interviewed under oath and perjuring himself the instant he opens his mouth.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 8:02 PM on January 24, 2018 [7 favorites]


I don't think he listens to his lawyers, and why should he, when he's failed all the way to the top?

I also seriously doubt he has anything like the self-discipline to plead the fifth. He likes to run his mouth.

And as for that interview, I didn't see it as any more weird than normal; I did see him working very hard to curveball anything that might make him look bad (like having to testify) back towards Clinton, which is consistent with his and the Republican's playbook. Any insinuation of wrongdoing triggers an attempt to connect it to her; she's a literal scapegoat/excuse for anything that any Republican has ever said, done or thought, since the beginning of Republicans. Whatever they did, she did something just as bad or worse, and so long as people engage with that bullshit argument/agree to blame her, it's effective.
posted by emjaybee at 8:14 PM on January 24, 2018 [11 favorites]


I really think Trump thinks it's like walking into a civil suit where he's always been able to buy his way out. I am not sure his law team can convince him otherwise since he thinks he's the most smartiest of the smarty pantses.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 8:14 PM on January 24, 2018 [7 favorites]


Maggie Haberman said staff have pop-diagnosed him with "Opposition Defiance [sic] Disorder".

He'll want to do it under oath on tape or camera to one-up Hillary and because his staff and lawyers tell him not to. It'll be a good test of whether the office of the presidency is vested in the person or the people around the person.
posted by holgate at 8:16 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


You've got to see this clip of Matt Gaetz on CNN. He claims that the FBI's text message archiving system not functioning for five months is "the greatest coincidence since the Immaculate Conception." So Chris Cuomo presses him on that, and Gaetz fumbles so badly trying to figure out how to explain the analogy he slips up and asks if he was brought on the show "to explain how Jesus was born," only to be schooled on what the Immaculate Conception even is (Mary's conception free from sin). The look on Gaetz's face is priceless.

Do not make bad religious analogies when you're being interviewed by a Roman Catholic anchor. Cuomo went to, as Google just informed me, Immaculate Conception School in Jamaica, Queens; you're not fooling him on this one.

And Cuomo isn't even out to embarrass Gaetz for lack of religious knowledge; he hits home on the importance of not being a moron:
FACTS MATTER, Congressman. If you're going to make an analogy, at least know what you're talking about, because you've got to have a basis for these things. You only know what you show. You got to release that memo, it's got to have the facts, and you better figure out what this secret society is before you say there's a shadow organization within the FBI.
posted by zachlipton at 8:16 PM on January 24, 2018 [69 favorites]


There's no way his lawyers will actually let Trump speak under oath.

His lawyers are morons who don't care if they’re paid. Who knows what they’ll do.
posted by Melismata at 8:19 PM on January 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


So in a normal court procedure, where it's like an ordinary person up on criminal charges, how do things go for a defendant who tries to shield himself with indecipherable bullshit? How does this go over when it's not a cop or a CEO or the president?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:22 PM on January 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


Maggie Haberman said staff have pop-diagnosed him with "Opposition Defiance [sic] Disorder".

Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD) is currently only diagnosed in children and adolescents. Adults can display ODD symptoms and behaviors, however, and these are normally comorbid with severe ADHD, antisocial personality disorder, or borderline personality disorder.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:28 PM on January 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


yeah, someone on staff is just a little bit cleverer than they are painted. ODD is what you label a little boy when he's too young for it to be ethically allowed to call him antisocial or a narcissist. for that, you have to wait until his personality passes into a somewhat more mature developmental stage, as is thought to happen to most human beings, if you wait long enough. though not to all of them. that's the joke. whether they know it or not, and I do believe they might.

I mean they are not ignorant of pop psych terms, they are calling him a child.
posted by queenofbithynia at 8:35 PM on January 24, 2018 [34 favorites]


It'll be a good test of whether the office of the presidency is vested in the person or the people around the person.

This is one of the most underreported fucked up parts of the Trump "administration", we've had stronger and relatively weaker Presidents, and even had a President in decline before now. Obama had some difficulties with the military brass and law enforcement agencies, and arguably rolled over to their agendas at first and later worked through the issues mostly. Clinton's issues were mainly with Congress, not his own executive branch. Bush was sometimes regarded as Cheney's puppet and beholden to his dad's neocon network, but it was also pretty clear he was involved in and believed in the same policies anyway, and there's numerous accounts of him overruling Cheney, pushing his own initiatives, and negotiating with Congress and the world at large. Reagan was possibly incapable during the last two years or so, but surrounded by a strong administration full of competent people, even if we might hate their policies, that he had put together before then and were able to compensate such that the country never really knew at the time, and there's never been any real indications Reagan wasn't in line with what his government was doing in his name.

But we've never had a President that is obviously not in control of his own government in any way, and no one at any level of the executive even pretends to listen to what he says. John Kelly and Steve Miller are keeping him from negotiating with Democrats, because they know he's inclined to agree to pretty much any deal and bound to sell out their white nationalist Nazi policies if left alone. Almost any position he takes in public is walked back or contradicted by Kelly, Sanders, unnamed staffers on background, or the cabinet secretaries within hours. Republicans in Congress openly say he doesn't understand policy or their tactics, and he contradicts anything they agree to also within hours.

We don't actually have a President, because the elected meatpopsickle sitting at the desk is a high functioning illiterate sociopath that if he hadn't been born with $500 million in 1970 dollars might very well have been institutionalized making Skilcraft pens with his adult life. Instead there's a constant state of competing proto-coups trying to gain power and influence over the mad king. The American Presidency is the last remaining limited-monarchy in the developed world, and we're seeing now what it must've been like to live through the reign of an invalid king like Charles II of Spain. Only, you know, with nukes.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:44 PM on January 24, 2018 [81 favorites]




That poor old dotard is never going to get over the whole Hillary thing is he

3,000,000 more votes dude
posted by kirkaracha at 8:59 PM on January 24, 2018 [18 favorites]


That poor old dotard is never going to get over the whole Hillary thing is he

So we ought to use this fact for good. Examples:

Crooked Hillary didn't testify under oath because she knew she was Crooked, so would you hold yourself to a higher standard by going under oath?

Crooked Hillary would have wanted to replace some land in our glorious national parks with state-financed solar panel projects, so will you defend our beautiful public lands?

Hillary wanted to restrict press access to journals that openly supported the Clinton Foundation. Can you guarantee a free press to make our press the envy of the world?
posted by hexaflexagon at 9:11 PM on January 24, 2018 [5 favorites]


I don’t understand the Lakoff argument. People fucking hate ISIS - how has their messaging helped them? It’s like he’s arguing that this stuff works but only on gullible rubes. Okay, but EVERYTHING works on gullible rubes.
posted by um at 9:16 PM on January 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


1) As someone who's worked with people with ODD, yeah no. He's an asshole, a narcissist, and an idiot. Not the same thing. (I also have worked with adults diagnosed with it, at least provisionally, but they were adults with severe cognitive impairment of one kind or another, i.e. developmental disability or brain injury)

2) I think the best way to get the entire country to realize something has to be done about Trump would just be to set up a microphone in front of him and a live camera and not stop filming until impeachment proceedings begin. Anytime he actually speaks to a reporter without a prompter and without editing it's a horrorshow. Really, though, can you imagine it? Hour after hour of just him talking live, bringing up all his favorite topics, getting as gross as he wants to, making absolutely no goddamn sense, no aides to shuffle him off or cut the camera. Sigh.
posted by threeturtles at 9:27 PM on January 24, 2018 [19 favorites]


Politico, Josh Gerstein, Spokesman for Rick Gates killed in Afghanistan hotel attack
A spokesman for Rick Gates, the former Trump campaign official indicted in the Russia investigation, was killed over the weekend in Afghanistan during the bombing and siege of a hotel that catered to foreigners.

Glenn Selig, 49, was in Kabul on business related to his Florida public relations firm when he became one of at least 22 people killed during a 14-hour attack that began Saturday night and stretched into Sunday, a colleague said.
...
Selig, a former investigative reporter for the Fox affiliate in Tampa, served as a spokesman in recent months both for Gates and for Jack Burkman, a lobbyist who recently organized a fundraiser for Gates that drew the ire of the judge overseeing his case.
That he was killed is awful and seems like obviously a coincidence (and I mean an actual coincidence, not a Matt Gaetz Immaculate Conception "coincidence"), though someone should really find out what he was doing in Kabul. But man have the writers really gotten drunk this season.

As a sidenote, Jews Learn About Christianity Twitter has been lit tonight.
posted by zachlipton at 9:54 PM on January 24, 2018 [13 favorites]


1. That Chris Cuomo clip with Matt Gaetz, oof. He's a stone cold moron, but I can't get past the fact that his face is too small for his head.

2. My formerly sharp as a tack grandmother fell and hit her head just over a month ago. Since then, she's slid into delirium and rarely makes sense (yesterday when I talked to her, she told me she'd spent the day at a name-calling convention with my uncle who's been dead for a few years, and today she did not know me). That Trump transcript... dude sounds less with-it my grandma, and my grandma can't wipe her own ass anymore. What the fuck are they doing to him to keep him looking like he's even slightly functional? Seriously.
posted by palomar at 10:12 PM on January 24, 2018 [11 favorites]


I'm so sorry, palomar.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 10:19 PM on January 24, 2018 [41 favorites]


I thought this article on the TPP from The Atlantic was interesting: The U.S. ditched a massive trade agreement—which turned out slightly better without it.

Important points:
• The US has a massive ability to impose its will when negotiating trade agreements; but
• When it abstains it throws that influence away, even on things it cares about;
• Trade agreements will continue to be made despite US abstention;
• In many ways they will continue to be the same agreements; but
• The US is so massive that agreements made without its buy-in have less effect on third parties.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:44 PM on January 24, 2018 [7 favorites]


I don’t understand the Lakoff argument. People fucking hate ISIS - how has their messaging helped them? It’s like he’s arguing that this stuff works but only on gullible rubes. Okay, but EVERYTHING works on gullible rubes.

Perhaps someone with more expertise could comment, but my impression from general news sources has been that ISIS has had a much more successful recruiting pull among non-religious Muslims when compared to Al Qaeda, despite a great deal of the stuff they say being nonsense or even heretical, theologically.

It's the same basic reason why much of advertising during the last hundred years boils down to images of attractive people using the product or service—a vague positive impression repeated countless times accompanied by a brand name beats out an incisive explanation of why you should use a product, most of the time, even for a non-gulliible non-rube audience. Similarly, a firehose of memetic slurry and contradictory soundbites, if it all sloshes over every barrier and seeps into every crack, can indirectly tune everyone into the same frequency-slash-propaganda-channel. To mix some metaphors.
posted by XMLicious at 11:03 PM on January 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


I did it


and if anyone wants 'lll post my question answers (they had to 250 words wtf I am good at being CONCISE.
posted by The Whelk at 11:51 PM on January 24, 2018 [37 favorites]


(It's essay questions , I can meMail them if you ask)
posted by The Whelk at 12:02 AM on January 25, 2018


Oh that Matt Gaetz. R-FL. For the longest time I had bookmarked a Twitter photo some rando had taken last summer of Gaetz and Roger Stone dining together. I couldn't remember why I thought it was important that Roger Stone was hanging out with an obscure congressman.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 2:29 AM on January 25, 2018 [5 favorites]


Good to see that your original Americans are fighting back:
Meet the anti-Trump candidate running to become the United States’ first Native American governor
"Paulette Jordan, a 37-year-old Idaho state representative and member of the Coeur d’Alene Tribe, is running as a progressive Democrat."
posted by adamvasco at 2:50 AM on January 25, 2018 [48 favorites]


I don’t understand the Lakoff argument. People fucking hate ISIS - how has their messaging helped them? It’s like he’s arguing that this stuff works but only on gullible rubes. Okay, but EVERYTHING works on gullible rubes.

I think the point of Lakoff is that, whether we want to think so or not, we are all gullible rubes.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:06 AM on January 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


A New Reality? The Far Right's Use of Cyberharassment against Academics
Apparently, someone had created a screenshot of an email that was meant to look like it came from me and began circulating it to students. The message described an assignment to write an essay criticizing President Trump; it warned Republicans that they would be punished for not reflecting “my” views.

Anyone who knows me or knows the classes I teach would have immediately seen that the message was a hoax. I don’t assign subjective essays as finals, and I definitely don’t send assignments out by email. My courses don’t touch on any subjects close to what the “assignment” entailed.

[...]

It was disappointing to see how easily so many people were duped. I was not surprised that visitors to the white supremacist website had fallen prey to the fabrications of one of their own, but I would have hoped that others would have had the evaluative skills to see through this transparent ruse.

I was also surprised to see those at high levels pulled into the fray. A state senator, John Albers, contacted me, and my representative in the US House, Doug Collins, lodged an inquiry with the univer­sity. These politicians may have no ties to the white supremacists or hate groups behind the attacks, but their lack of judgment was astonishing. It does not instill confidence when elected officials are so easily manipulated to work on behalf of hate groups.
Question everything in this new reality.
posted by Talez at 4:59 AM on January 25, 2018 [73 favorites]


I just wanted to point out that the downturn in tourism is another kick-in-the-huevos for Puerto Rico. As a Caribbean island, we've had a lot of European tourism in the winter.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:21 AM on January 25, 2018 [20 favorites]


"Moscow Matt" Gaetz has only a few functions, really. To defend Trump to the point that it's becoming obvious that Gaetz is complicit in Russian Shenanigans, and to make my garbage Congressman Neil Dunn seem like a statesman in comparison. Before he became a Trump spokesdouche, Moscow Matt was best known for having several drunk driving charges buried by his father. Fucka Matt Gaetz.
posted by Cookiebastard at 6:46 AM on January 25, 2018 [2 favorites]




When they hacked Democratic emails, Russians were counting on a gullible mainstream news media and an unprincipled right-wing echo chamber to transform a bunch of trivial internal communications into a pseudo-scandal by wrenching them from all context. It is ironic that the current Republican effort to dismiss the very real scandal that arose from those hacks is using the exact same method.

And it's critical to note that the so-called "liberal media," far from pointing out that such desperate obfuscation is essentially an admission of guilt, plays right along. Such as NPR's devoting its morning top-of-the-hour lead story, for the second day running, to baseless Republican attempts to undermine Trump's investigators -- this time, having Ron Johnson on to allege "bias" by the FBI.

Personally, I want the FBI, as one of the nation's primary counterespionage arms, to be biased against those who sell us out to the Russians.
posted by Gelatin at 7:05 AM on January 25, 2018 [34 favorites]


You think Trump asked for $600 000 for the interview considering that is the going rate for a crook Republican president to talk to a blowhard Brit?
posted by PenDevil at 7:09 AM on January 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


I was one of those people thinking that the short shutdown could be part of a strategy rather than a cave. Looks like I was wrong.

Senate Democrats are willing to drop their demand that relief for Dreamers be tied to any long-term budget agreement — a potential boost for spending talks, but one that could face opposition from their House counterparts.

The shift comes in response to the deal struck between Senate leaders Monday to reopen the government and begin debate on an immigration bill next month. Meanwhile, budget negotiators are expressing optimism that a two-year agreement to lift stiff caps on defense and domestic spending is increasingly within reach.


That certainly sounds like they've given up on the Dreamers and aren't planning to shut it down again. Call your Senators, folks.
posted by tau_ceti at 7:11 AM on January 25, 2018 [7 favorites]




Stopped Clock Jennifer Rubin, WaPo: Trump’s inability to understand ‘obstruction of justice’ may be his downfall
In the context of an interview under oath, one can imagine horrible (from the perspective of Trump’s lawyers) exchanges that might go like this:
Mueller: Did you want Comey out so the Russia hoax would end?

Trump: Damn right! This was just the Democrats up to take away my tremendous win — the biggest ever — and I wasn’t going to allow it. I let Comey stay. He owed it to me. I mean, if he wasn’t going to help, I’d have gotten my own guy.

Mueller: When you asked Comey for his loyalty you were telling him he better look after you, protect you from this witch hunt?

Trump: You got it!
Gulp.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:14 AM on January 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


The actual context is a text message from Page to Strzok the day after the election: “Are you even going to give out your calendars?,” Page asks Strzok. “Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society.”

Nobody exactly knows what that means, but it's a single text message that's clearly an offhand joke the day after the election rather than an organized conspiracy within the Justice Department. And then nobody has bothered to come forward with other evidence of said society actually existing.


This seems on a level with when I am in a store and they have entire racks of things without any discernible labeling. My go-to "joke" is oh no, the price is a secret. I am now imagining how I would deal with it if someone actually took me seriously when I said that. Probably by backing away slowly, or just a lot of blinking. So I guess it tracks.
posted by phearlez at 7:23 AM on January 25, 2018 [6 favorites]


That certainly sounds like they've given up on the Dreamers and aren't planning to shut it down again. Call your Senators, folks.

When they give up on DACA, people will die. People are dying now because they are being deported to unsafe places. We are shipping people off to be killed, knowingly, with the examples of history before us.

Whenever people are all "blah blah Democrats not so bad", we need to remember - these are people who, when it comes right down to it, are willing to sit quietly while people are deported to die. This situation is a moral emergency. It is disgracefully wrong. It's not literally the worst thing that the modern US government has done, but it is something that is so obviously wrong that there is no real excuse for confusion.

There are situations where there isn't a grey area or room for compromise and this is one of them.

So yeah, call your Senators - since Klobuchar seems to be one of the can't-get-her-head-straight people on this, I will be calling her.

History will judge us very hard on this one. "What did you do during the war [on immigrants], Daddy?"
posted by Frowner at 7:27 AM on January 25, 2018 [43 favorites]


I was one of those people thinking that the short shutdown could be part of a strategy rather than a cave.

I tweeted a bunch about this last night, but the Democrats have been bombarding me with fundraising phone calls, and yesterday afternoon I just laid into the guy on the phone. I feel bad; he's just doing a job and doesn't direct the part. But he was also comically uninformed and clearly pursuing the same stale strategy of relying on Trump outrage to do all the work.

This was all before I saw this story.

The spark that lit the fire in me was the Democratic house leadership caving on the Section 702 bill - I brought this up, and the guy on the other end of the line rebutted that the party not being in power means they can't do anything, but THEY HAD THE VOTES! I pointed this out and that Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, among others, all voted for that piece of garbage.

I told him I'd reached the end of my rope with the anti-Trump rhetoric coupled with enabling his horrid policies. He thanked me for my time and told me to have a good day.

There's this theme we keep coming back to, that the Republicans are crooked as hell and the Democrats can't win by playing by the "nice" rules. Yet it seems to me that they're not playing at all - why aren't they drawing a line in the sand? For gods' sake, the Dreamers are popular! A huge majority of people want them to stay!

I get that shutting things down only hurts their constituencies, but they need to start taking a godsdamn stand for POC. It's hard to fight racism and white supremacy, but this is a really easy place to begin.

Caving on the wall. Caving on the Dreamers. Helping to pass Section 702 with increased ease of surveillance. No message. No stand on anything except "Trump sucks amirite". Why on earth would I give this party money?
posted by rocketman at 7:28 AM on January 25, 2018 [25 favorites]


Expanded thoughts, from yesterday's episode of filthy light thief shouts at the radio: Bill Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center says "out of [government shutdowns] may come some good"
It was terrible. It was 21 days. In fact, we had it for a few days. We opened up. We shut down again. Long story short, it was much longer than this current one. But out of that then came after, when we finally - reopened government was in 1997. We actually came together on a major bipartisan budget agreement to balance the budget. So it is difficult, obviously, but out of this may come some good.

INSKEEP: You - meaning the very same issues over which the government was shut down, President Clinton and Republicans who controlled Congress worked out an accommodation eventually?

HOAGLAND: They worked out an accommodation after the fact, yes. But they had to go through that struggle.
To which I shouted "BUT YOU DIDN'T HAVE TO SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT TO WORK TOGETHER!" And they didn't even touch on the far-reaching adverse impacts to the shutdown (Wikipedia):
A 2010 Congressional Research Service report (PDF) summarized other details of the 1995–1996 government shutdowns, indicating the shutdown impacted all sectors of the economy. Health and welfare services for military veterans were curtailed; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped disease surveillance; new clinical research patients were not accepted at the National Institutes of Health; and toxic waste cleanup at 609 sites was halted. Other impacts included: the closure of 368 National Park sites resulted in the loss of some seven million visitors; 200,000 applications for passports were not processed; and 20,000-30,000 applications by foreigners for visas went unprocessed each day; U.S. tourism and airline industries incurred millions of dollars in losses; more than 20% of federal contracts, representing $3.7 billion in spending, were affected adversely.
Oh hey, the Republicans, despite their (IMO rightful) public blame for the shutdown, came out ahead in the end.
Gingrich stated that the first re-election of a Republican majority since 1928 was due in part to the Republican Party's hard line on the budget. The Republican Party had a net loss of eight seats in the House in the 1996 elections but retained a 227-206 seat majority in the upcoming 105th United States Congress. In the Senate, Republicans gained two seats.
And will you look at that -- from 2003 to 2007, G. William Hoagland served as the director of budget and appropriations in the office of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn). I wonder why he saw that trying period as having a positive outcome.

Fucking hell, NPR. Fucking hell.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:31 AM on January 25, 2018 [16 favorites]


WaPo: Doomsday Clock moves from 2:30 to 2:00 to midnight

Just for reference, the last time we were this close to midnight was in 1953, just after the US tested its first second-generation thermonuclear weapon. By all rights, we should be in full duck and cover mode, with fallout shelter signs on public buildings right now.

(Fellow comics nerds will also note that for the past two years we have been closer to midnight than the setting of Alan Moore's Watchmen, a crisis so seemingly fraught with peril that [SPOILER] the supposed smartest man in the world decided that the only way to head it off was to destroy half of New York City with a faked alien invasion.)
posted by Strange Interlude at 7:34 AM on January 25, 2018 [21 favorites]


Caving on the wall. Caving on the Dreamers. Helping to pass Section 702 with increased ease of surveillance. No message. No stand on anything except "Trump sucks amirite". Why on earth would I give this party money?

There's still no wall, Dreamers are still on the table. Section 702? I've given up on privacy since Mark Klein's deposition in EFF v. AT&T showed they're tapping the backbones, and copying everything to the NSA room.

After over 100 days, Schumer did get CHIP funded for a good number of years, and with the CR in less than 3 weeks, the situation hasn't changed. The Republicans are gonna need ANOTHER CR, and when we go through this again, and I'm hopeful that DACA gets fixed.

For a minority party with zero actual power, looks to me like they're working as hard as possible to deliver.

Despair is a sin.
posted by mikelieman at 7:35 AM on January 25, 2018 [49 favorites]


As Mueller closes in, paranoia spreads in the White House.
Jeff Sessions tries to purge FBI of Comey’s influence, while right-wingers spread outrageous conspiracy theories.
posted by adamvasco at 7:37 AM on January 25, 2018 [5 favorites]


There's this theme we keep coming back to, that the Republicans are crooked as hell and the Democrats can't win by playing by the "nice" rules. Yet it seems to me that they're not playing at all - why aren't they drawing a line in the sand? For gods' sake, the Dreamers are popular! A huge majority of people want them to stay!

I get that shutting things down only hurts their constituencies, but they need to start taking a godsdamn stand for POC. It's hard to fight racism and white supremacy, but this is a really easy place to begin.


1) Popularity means absolutely nothing to Republicans. Look at the approval ratings on the health care bill they tried to ram through and on the tax bill that they did.

And the Dreamers, like all people who are less pale than ABBA, sympathetic to the Democrats and/or both, are wildly unpopular among the hard-right wingnuts who control the debate on the Republican side. If they can boot out 800,000 potential Dem voters, that's an absolute win in their eyes. If they can extract ridiculous restrictions on future immigration to try to reverse the racial demographic trends that are unfavorable to their side, that's an absolute win in their eyes. And if they can push hard in the direction of white supremacy and white nationalism by painting the Dems as caring more about Illegal Brown Criminals than Good Hard-Working White Folks, well, they figure that that's how they won this past election, true or not.

2) If the Dems are to defend the Dreamers they really need to go all-in, line-in-the-sand, not-one-more-step. However, the Repubs understand this, and their framing of it as "the Dems care more about illegal aliens than REAL AMERICANS" is a dangerous one because it does resonate, especially when the Repubs refuse to consider it outside of tying it to must-pass stuff like CHIP and the debt ceiling. And with the Congressional numbers how they are, they can set up one Sophie's Choice after another after another and be successful because Dems figure that if the choices are "do something that hurts a potential swing voter" and "do something that hurts 800,000 people the swing voter doesn't know personally," too many will go for the latter out of self-preservation.

LBJ understood that passing the Civil Rights Acts would directly hurt the Democrats, and said so. But he also understood that they _were necessary actions_. Today's Dems have similar decisions to make.
posted by delfin at 7:57 AM on January 25, 2018 [25 favorites]


I want to see a real fight and solution for DACA folks too, but a facile "80% support them!" that doesn't acknowledge that people's support levels change a lot the second there's actually some cost to them ignores everything we know about how an electorate actually behaves. People are quick to say "someone should do something!" but a lot of them follow up, when called upon, with "wait, you didn't think I meant me, did you?"
posted by phearlez at 8:02 AM on January 25, 2018 [6 favorites]


I guess I don't understand how the DACA people staying exacts any actual cost on the rest of the population. Notional cost, as dreamed up by the GOP, is certainly being imputed, but what does it really cost us to keep these folks here? And what does it cost us to lose them?

It's one thing to say "keep new immigrants out." I disagree with that, but at least I see where those voters are coming from.

But DACA people are fully integrated into their communities and doing everything we'd want our citizens to do -- including paying taxes, which is more than I can say for the president. How does their presence harm the rest of us? What am I missing? I am just baffled.
posted by GrammarMoses at 8:12 AM on January 25, 2018 [15 favorites]


There is no cost but a potential political cost, as far as I can tell, which is obviously morally unacceptable. I just called my Senators to emphasize that fact. I expect them to be on the offensive about this, and to be aggressive about it. I’d like to see messaging that expressly makes the moral case, and if that’s not happening, I’d really like to know why.

I got the boilerplate reassurance from
their respective staffers. Next time I call I think I’ll have to prepare with more actual questions.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:17 AM on January 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


best people alert:

Trump’s 24-year-old drug policy appointee to step down by month’s end, Robert O'Harrow Jr., WaPo
A 24-year-old former Trump campaign worker who rose rapidly to a senior post in the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy will step down by the end of the month because of controversy surrounding his appointment, the White House said late Wednesday.

Taylor Weyeneth, who graduated from college in May 2016, was named a White House liaison to the drug office the following March and then promoted to deputy chief of staff in July, at age 23. His only professional experience after college and before becoming a political appointee was working on the Trump presidential campaign.

The office, known as ONDCP, is responsible for coordinating anti-drug initiatives at 16 federal agencies and supporting President Trump’s efforts to confront the opioid epidemic.

The announcement follows Washington Post stories that detailed Weyeneth’s rapid rise at ONDCP — in large part because of staff turnover and vacancies — and inconsistencies and inaccuracies on three résumés he submitted to the government.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 8:17 AM on January 25, 2018 [22 favorites]


LBJ understood that passing the Civil Rights Acts would directly hurt the Democrats, and said so. But he also understood that they _were necessary actions_. Today's Dems have similar decisions to make.

Ok yeah that’s the comparison I wish I’d made
posted by schadenfrau at 8:18 AM on January 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


And what does it cost us to lose them?

"Each deportation conducted by ICE cost taxpayers an average of $10,854 in fiscal 2016, an official from [ICE] told CNNMoney. This amount includes everything from housing and feeding a detainee to transporting him back to his home country."

So far starters it'll cost us about $8.8 billion, not even counting the injury to the economy. That's how vile and vindictive the racists in this country are.
posted by jedicus at 8:20 AM on January 25, 2018 [50 favorites]


Huh. Wonder what Weyeneth's schtick was. Friend of Jared? Rich parents? In the same cocaine-dealing circle as Ivanka's father? Hmmm.
posted by Melismata at 8:21 AM on January 25, 2018


but what does it really cost us to keep these folks here?

I mean, this gets at a bigger fundamental problem, but according to Facebook, first-generation immigrants I know are scared of people gettingtaking jobs, gettingstealing Social Security, being giving free healthcare, etc. There's a bigger list that's been making the rounds that I don't really want to look up, but that's a good idea of what it is.

Half of it doesn't make sense if you think about it for a second (And frankly, once you get into talking about people who come here with nothing, can easily devolve into a discussion of refugees, which itself a weird mix of the above and straight xenophobic fear of "terrorism"), and I guess I see the other half as the anti-union/temporarily-embarrassed-millionaire thing of "I had to/have to work hard to get $X, so everyone else for the rest of time better have to as well"
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:24 AM on January 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


The GOP and the administration are using the elimination of DACA as a trial balloon and precedent for active mass persecution and deportations. If they're allowed to de-person almost a million of the most innocent and integrated of all undocumented immigrants, what's to stop them from bringing the base's desires fully down upon ten, twenty, or even (as Trump says) thirty million people? They want forced migrations on a scale unseen since the 1940s, and if we can't protect DACA recipients the tacit surrender will be a foot in the door for ICE and CBP and all the thug acronyms to come.

Beyond the obvious morality of protecting Dreamers, this is about trying to keep the Hitlerton Window from pulling ever more rightward.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:24 AM on January 25, 2018 [34 favorites]


I am wholly behind a legislative fix to DACA (including a path to citizenship), but wanting to be responsive to the questions about costs, I thought I'd point to the CBO's scoring of the DREAM Act, which estimates an increase of the budget deficit of ~$26B over ten years, chiefly due to increased spending on federal benefits. (well worth it, imho). Tom Cotton has of course latched on to this number.
posted by AwkwardPause at 8:26 AM on January 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


(more succinct recap):

A 24-Year-Old White House Employee Is Leaving His High-Level Post After Lying About His Resume, Brianna Sacks, Buzzfeed
Last week, the Washington Post reported that Weyeneth gave the federal government three resumes with contradicting dates for various jobs. His alleged employment also included work at a New York law firm that told the paper Weyeneth had been fired because he “just didn’t show” up for work.
(Oh, this guy! Ya I remember that headline.)
On all three resumes, the 24-year-old stated that he had graduated from Fordham University with a master's degree. But though the university confirmed Weyeneth was enrolled in a master's program, it told the Post he had never finished his coursework.
...
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 8:34 AM on January 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


Bloomberg: Grassley Says ‘Spooked’ Kushner Won’t Agree to Russia Interview

When Grassley (a were-deer who bolts through the flaggy undergrowth at the first questions about the Mueller investigation) says you're spooked....you're spooked.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:37 AM on January 25, 2018 [39 favorites]


Today's Wingnut Radio highlight was a caller who said that if DACA was to be kept at all, it should be with a special status for Dreamers that involved a special ID card, no possibility of their ever gaining citizenship, and no right to vote EVER in exchange for not being deported. He referred to this as "how conservatives can demonstrate their compassion for these people" and "basic fairness." I wanted to ask him if they should also have special symbols sewn onto their clothes but my radio doesn't go two-way like that.
posted by delfin at 8:37 AM on January 25, 2018 [65 favorites]


There is no cost but a potential political cost, as far as I can tell, which is obviously morally unacceptable.

I think this is a valid way to spend political capital and the right fight to have. But we shouldn't pretend that spending political capital is free; it can be used up and you may not have it to spend on another fight. It is morally unacceptable to squander political capital and it's distasteful to have to balance where it's used. But if that's true then it can also be true that it's morally unacceptable to behave as if losing it means nothing. To wit:

This is so bad, it's worth losing the midterms if that's the price to be paid for saving the Dreamers.

That's pretty easy to say till you're looking someone in the eye who will, say, be forced to give birth. Or lose their health insurance when the next pass at repealing the ACA wins. Or any number of other things.

Or, honestly - and this is sort of annoying me in some of the above statement about how this is the tipping point where Dems become conspirators and murderers - if you're one of the tens of thousands of people not inside the US borders who have death rained down on them from above by a largely unaccountable military and spy force. Somehow Dem complicity in that bloodbath wasn't quite over the line but once some of the DACA recipients who have been living in the US get deported and die, NOW it's past the post in some way?

The democratic party has been making choices about what lives to save or vaguely defend or flat-out ignore for as long as all of us have been alive. Being angry about it is the only reasonable thing. Acting like suddenly now there's been that one step too far is either disingenuous performance or ignorant.
posted by phearlez at 8:42 AM on January 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


From an earlier WaPo article about Weyeneth:

When he was in high school, Weyeneth was “Director of Production” for Nature’s Chemistry, a family firm in Skaneateles, N.Y., that specialized in processing chia seeds and other health products. One résumé said he served in that job from 2008 to 2013, and two others indicate he stopped working there in September 2011.

In the summer and fall of 2011, the firm was secretly processing illegal steroids from China as part of a conspiracy... federal court records show. Weyeneth’s stepfather, Matthew Greacen, pleaded guilty to a felony conspiracy charge last year...


He was 14 when he supposedly became Director of Production for the family steroid processing company.
posted by diogenes at 8:44 AM on January 25, 2018 [62 favorites]


Only the best people!
posted by Sublimity at 8:47 AM on January 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Director of Production for the family (illegal) steroid processing company at age 14 = perfect preparation for a senior post in this administration's White House Office of National Drug Control Policy.
posted by GrammarMoses at 8:48 AM on January 25, 2018 [32 favorites]


It's government's job to make choices about what lives to save or vaguely defend or flat-out ignore. I don't understand this talk that there's some sort of potential system that would never have to make decisions like that, so it's the party that must be corrupt. Ruling over people is inherently messy. We can try to make it incrementally better, but punishing Dems for not being Platonic ideals of selfless governance will get nobody nowhere. Especially when the OTHER party is demonstrably orders of magnitude worse.
posted by rikschell at 8:51 AM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


I wish someone with a national audience would call this impending mass deportation what it is: Ethnic Cleansing.

Yup. All of this is designed to get the brown out of town: if they won't leave on their own, they'll be kicked out. Just wait until they start deporting the people who became citizens.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:52 AM on January 25, 2018 [18 favorites]


The recent story about the immigrants' rights activists who have been arrested for helping people who need food and water after making the dangerous trek between Mexico and the US should really worry all of us and tell us where this is going.

One of those people was arrested and charged with a felony - harboring undocumented immigrants.

What happens if this kind of charge becomes more common? What happens if it is used to split citizens and undocumented people? A felony destroys your life and your family's life - who will be able to afford that risk? And yet what happens when we don't?

On a selfish individual level this is on my mind lately, since I am 100% confident that undocumented people live in my neighborhood. I have no idea who, but it's a part of town with many, many recent Mexican and South American immigrants doing day labor.

Honestly, I know what history requires of me if it comes down to harbor-or-not-harbor, and it scares me. This past year has brought me up against some hard truths about myself - I am not that brave or heroic, I am pretty lazy and I mostly want a quiet life. Going to jail for my beliefs has zero appeal to me. I used to kid myself a lot about who I am, thinking I was braver and more committed than is the case. And yet I know that ultimately I have to do what better people do and go where they're sent. I don't want to. I feel a time coming where I won't be able to duck out and preserve myself, and I am afraid of it. But I know that if it's harbor or not-harbor, it has to be harbor. There has to be a stopping point in all this.

But if we all push back before it gets to that point, it might not.

I guess what occurs to me is that if we who are citizens don't do some pretty hard work to fight deportations now while it's merely bad and getting worse, we'll arrive at the point where our choices will either be active collusion and abandonment of our neighbors or prison.

Do we have any reason to believe that ICE - with its accelerated sweeps, murderous deportation regime, attacks on abused women and imprisonment of children - is going to stop at any point short of full ethnic cleansing? Is there any mechanism now except the overburdened and fragile legal system which could stop them? We have no reason to believe they'll stop and there's nothing to stop them except the limits of manpower and money, and those can be overcome. They're bad and they're getting worse, and they're getting worse faster.

I think that whatever options any of us has to work on this issue, now is really, really the time.
posted by Frowner at 8:57 AM on January 25, 2018 [93 favorites]



The democratic party has been making choices about what lives to save or vaguely defend or flat-out ignore for as long as all of us have been alive. Being angry about it is the only reasonable thing. Acting like suddenly now there's been that one step too far is either disingenuous performance or ignorant.


I don't care for this, because it's the same old "things have always been bad, you're acting like [new horrible thing] is somehow terrible when actually the United States is always-already terrible, it's like you don't even care about [other terrible things]". Times change, empires get worse, some times are better than others. The "always already" narrative gives the impression that what we've been doing always-already is enough. Sure, let's carry on temporizing about the Democrats and wringing our hands, that's worked so well in the past thirty years, it's not like we've lost welfare and election regulations and unions and limits on political donations and now we're in the process of losing medicaid and social security, things are still roughly as bad as they were in 1992.

I mean, I've heard the "always-already" story for virtually my entire activist life, which is coming up for thirty years now - usually against other activists to prove that they don't really understand history, etc etc. "Oh, you're upset about this new thing? Well, that just shows that you're not woke enough to be upset about all the preceding things, you're a hypocrite or stupid".

If I'd ever, ever seen the always-already narrative lead to any kind of rupture in the existing ineffectiveness of the left, I'd go with it. But all I've seen it do is establish that rupture should be considered both impossible and politically suspect.
posted by Frowner at 9:05 AM on January 25, 2018 [33 favorites]


Reading about all this Infowars-comments-section-caliber shit about the FBI, the Russia investigations, “secret societies”, etc. being peddled not only by Fox News et al but also Republican Senators is scaring the shit out of me. This is not the sign of a healthy society.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:05 AM on January 25, 2018 [62 favorites]


It's not at all clear that we're going to have mass deportations or even fucking ethnic cleansing, for godssake

There's a range of possible outcomes on the table. The worst one, I believe, is the Goodlatte bill, which would criminalize being in the country without legal status, and remove legal status for anyone whose income falls below 125% of the poverty line, among other things. That would be very bad indeed. But it DOESN'T have increased funding for ICE and its courts. Without that funding, the number of people being detained and deported is going to remain exactly the same as it has been in the past. Even if they wanted to have Arpaio-style internment camps, they can only fill those camps as fast as their agents can work. The population of detained or interned immigrants will continue to grow at the pace it has been for the last ten years. The major effect of that legislation would just be to make people's lives more uncertain and more scary.

Another possible outcome, somewhere in the middle, is no immigration deal whatsoever. Nothing for DACA, nothing for the wall, nothing for interior enforcement. In which case people just go back to the pre-DACA status quo. Again, the biggest effect of losing legal status is making people's lives more scary and uncertain. I don't mean to minimize how unjust and unfair that is. But unless we had ethnic cleansing in 2007, we won't have it now.

The Pod Save America guys seemed to think that ICE would start targeting DACA people specifically, because they had all the information to find them easily ... but ICE doesn't necessarily have that information. DACA recipients gave their information to USCIS. USCIS is not a law enforcement agency at all - the purpose of that office is to serve immigrants and naturalize new citizens, which is the exact opposite of what ICE does, and there's a bit of a metaphorical wall between the two purposes (to the best of my understanding). It's not clear at all that they would share that information with ICE. If they did share that information, it didn't happen automatically; there should be a FOIA-able paper trail of requests.

Finally, please remember that some portion of this would have been happening under President Hillary Clinton. It's not like she was going to stop deportations and close all the detainment centers. She would have kept DACA, but it would be facing lawsuits from state AGs and heading to court at this point. She would be putting pressure on Congress to find a legislative, more court-proof solution. ICE and CBP maybe wouldn't be as emboldened as they are in this timeline, but they would be getting restive and mutinous, and doing public stunts to try to push back. And sore loser Trump would still be tweeting. He did not turn us into this.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 9:07 AM on January 25, 2018 [11 favorites]


Are we just going to Chicken Little until he says something stupid at Davos?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:09 AM on January 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


I would like to point out that for the first time in my lifetime or hell since it was actually written the title of Iron Maiden's song is actually accurate...
posted by cirhosis at 9:11 AM on January 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Card Cheat: Reading about all this Infowars-comments-section-caliber shit about the FBI, the Russia investigations, “secret societies”, etc. being peddled not only by Fox News et al but also Republican Senators is scaring the shit out of me. This is not the sign of a healthy society.

Nor is high-level political collusion with a foreign agency or country, but here we are, with Republicans running defense and distraction against an investigation to the President of the United States, his family and close associates and their alleged/ apparent/ obvious/ well-documented ties to Russian politicians and mobsters. Happy 2017 2018!
posted by filthy light thief at 9:15 AM on January 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


From 'an informant told him there was a secret society' in the FBI to overthrow Trump, to 'he'd heard rumors' there was a secret society, to 'it was a joke' in 24 hours.

@mkraju (CNN)
Ron Johnson, who raised alarms this week about the FBI agents’ “secret society” text, just told me: “It’s a real possibility” the text was written in jest.
posted by chris24 at 9:17 AM on January 25, 2018 [31 favorites]


I just left this message for Senator Bob Casey. I spent a few minutes writing it up before I called and read it. I would encourage anyone else so motivated to do the same.
Hello, my name is [biogeo]. I'm a constituent calling from [my city] to thank Senator Casey for his work representing the people of Pennsylvania. I'm also calling to ask him to please stand firmly in support of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and the Dreamers. My mother, grandfather, and great great grandfather were all civil servants who worked in Washington, DC, so I understand at a gut level just how painful a government shutdown is, both to government employees and to the people they serve. But Senator Casey and the other Senate Democrats were right to stand strong against the extremist Republican agenda, even if it meant shutting down the government. But McConnell and the Republicans have already showed signs of reneging on their promise to address DACA.

I'm asking Senator Casey to stand firmly in support of the 700,000 Americans who are at risk of being deported if the DACA protections expire, and use any tool necessary to do so, including shutting down the government again. This is not just a political decision, this is a human rights crisis. Please serve the people of Pennsylvania by helping protect our friends and neighbors who, through no fault of their own, lack the protections of legal citizenship. Thank you.
posted by biogeo at 9:20 AM on January 25, 2018 [16 favorites]


This is so bad, it's worth losing the midterms if that's the price to be paid for saving the Dreamers.

And, honestly, this is the core of the whole debate. CAN the Dreamers be saved in this current environment? There are two arguments to be made:

1) This is a human rights issue of utmost importance. The GOP is willfully destroying human lives for political gain. They are about to stomp on that particular gas pedal. The Dems must use all possible means to stop this, right now, regardless of political cost. Standing for something meaningful is more important than calculating electability.

versus

2) This is a situation where the Dems cannot stop anything, only hold the line through desperate procedural maneuvers. They will not convince House Repubs to defect. They cannot get any kind of productive action onto the floor. The status quo is unacceptable. A Repub majority post-midterms will be emboldened to continue down this path and be even more punitive. McConnell will continue to dangle "either hurt Dreamers or hurt everybody" dilemmas over the Senate. The only way to move forwards is to win Congress (and somehow get past a Trump veto). Will shutdowns over DACA lose more voters than they gain?

And both the Idealist and the Pragmatist have weight to their arguments.
posted by delfin at 9:20 AM on January 25, 2018 [23 favorites]


> But it DOESN'T have increased funding for ICE and its courts. Without that funding, the number of people being detained and deported is going to remain exactly the same as it has been in the past.

It's preposterous to say that the GOP and Trump could pass and sign into law a bill that allows for mass deportations but somehow couldn't make the funding for it happen. Once it's legal to deport people, they will find a way to shuffle money around -- or just borrow, as they've shown they don't care about the deficit -- to ensure that mass deportations happen.

> It's not clear at all that they would share that information with ICE. If they did share that information, it didn't happen automatically; there should be a FOIA-able paper trail of requests.

Again, once you're in the realm of "expecting the executive branch to do the right thing", you've lost. Information sharing within the government that isn't forbidden by law will happen. The idea that we can FOIA things and find out who did it doesn't matter if them doing it violates no laws. Unless there's something in the law that prevents it -- what is this "metaphorical wall" you speak of? -- it will happen, and all we can do is complain about it and maybe try to shame people who have no shame.

> Finally, please remember that some portion of this would have been happening under President Hillary Clinton. It's not like she was going to stop deportations and close all the detainment centers. She would have kept DACA, but it would be facing lawsuits from state AGs and heading to court at this point.

Then it wouldn't be happening, because the courts would likely block any deportations pending the outcome of those lawsuits. The bias would be toward the status quo. It could take the entirety of Clinton's (sadly hypothetical) first term for it to be decided, and if it managed to go all the way to the top, well, Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch would be Fox News Contributor Neil Gorsuch, so I reckon we'd be in good shape.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:25 AM on January 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


THIS. This bears repeating far and wide because it's the truth:

I wish someone with a national audience would call this impending mass deportation what it is: Ethnic Cleansing. There's no other way to describe ejecting 800,000 people out of the country and forcing them into exile. Roughly 1 in 400 Americans stripped of their home, their jobs, their families. This is a crime against humanity if it's allowed to happen.
posted by yoga at 9:26 AM on January 25, 2018 [38 favorites]


Now now, he already said something stupid at Davos. NYT, Trump, in Davos, Seeks to Mend Strained Ties with Britain:
With Mr. Netanyahu at his side, Mr. Trump excoriated the Palestinians for refusing to meet with Mr. Pence, citing the Jerusalem decision, and he again threatened to cut financial aid. “They disrespected us a week ago by not allowing our great vice president to see them,” he said. “That money’s not going to them unless they sit down and negotiate peace.”
posted by zachlipton at 9:27 AM on January 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


The democratic party has been making choices about what lives to save or vaguely defend or flat-out ignore for as long as all of us have been alive. Being angry about it is the only reasonable thing. Acting like suddenly now there's been that one step too far is either disingenuous performance or ignorant.

some of us are young and only woke up politically in 2016. ignorance is not necessarily a sin. ♥
posted by ragtag at 9:28 AM on January 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


McConnell will continue to dangle "either hurt Dreamers or hurt everybody" dilemmas over the Senate.

It'd be nice if someone pointed out to the lazy, stupid media that McConnell is actively creating these dilemmas by choice in order to exploit bigotry for political gain.
posted by Gelatin at 9:29 AM on January 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


If there’s one thing Donald Trump is good at, it’s mending strained ties.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:31 AM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


I don't care for this, because it's the same old "things have always been bad, you're acting like [new horrible thing] is somehow terrible when actually the United States is always-already terrible, it's like you don't even care about [other terrible things]".

I mean, I guess it is if you ignore where the immediately preceding text says that this is indeed something we should be angry about, where I point specifically at comments saying Dems are now murderers, if you ignore what you actually even quoted "Being angry about it is the only reasonable thing." Yeah okay, it's the same.

I think it's the opposite from a smackdown against being upset. That's certainly the opposite of what I intend, which is to say we need to stop behaving like people who have just now noticed that things are shit and pretending that it's some new thing or that our allies are only just now failing people in some ways.

some of us are young and only woke up politically in 2016. ignorance is not necessarily a sin. ♥

And it's never the wrong time to care. But it's always the wrong time to stay ignorant about the larger war and think that any one battle is the start and end. We mock the Trump administration for wandering into Middle East peace talks and flat-out saying that they don't need to understand what has come before or even who the players are. And rightly so. To do the same with our own situation is no less ignorant and no less doomed to failure.

I want a world where my tax dollars and my elected and non-elected representatives don't blow up wedding parties, among many other things. I'm not going to get it if I pretend that such things only ever happen because my political adversaries are okay with it. I'm not going to get it if I am willing to set everything on fire and lose the midterms if we don't win one of those battles now.
posted by phearlez at 9:39 AM on January 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


It's not at all clear that we're going to have mass deportations or even fucking ethnic cleansing, for godssake

The future is never clear. What is clear as fucking day is that the GOP wants this. They don’t call it ethnic cleansing, but it’s what they’re advocating for. We should believe them.

It may be a hard truth that appealing to morality — is it even morality to be like “let’s not be genocidal monsters?” — may not be a persuasive argument in this country at this time. That is terrifying to contemplate, but the world in general is pretty terrifying at the moment. So I don’t pretend to know the best way to avoid another actual crime against humanity, but I do think that we shouldn’t lie to ourselves about what the stakes are.

The GOP has become a party that actively advocates for crimes against humanity, and history tells us that those impulses, unchecked, lead to one horrifying place. We should believe them when they tell us what they want.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:42 AM on January 25, 2018 [69 favorites]


Terrific John Palovitz rant: White Evangelicals, This is Why People Are Through with You.
posted by carmicha at 9:45 AM on January 25, 2018 [51 favorites]


So, there's a large Christian Indonesian community in New Hampshire, that's been here for about 20 years, who, for various reasons, were not able to get asylum when they first got here. They negotiated a deal with ICE a few years back, that, if they checked in regularly, they'll be able to stay, and won't be deported.

At their first check in post-Trump, they were told to buy plane tickets back to Indonesia, where they may not be safe. Deportations are currently on hold pending some legal challenges, but the general feeling was that ICE went after them because they were an easy population to go after. They had their information, they were checking in, so ICE went after them first.
posted by damayanti at 9:49 AM on January 25, 2018 [61 favorites]


Yes, it is dispiriting to realize that we not only have to defeat the pro-fascism pro-racist party, but also have to reform the less-fascist less-racist party to have a chance going forward. 30 years of propaganda and effort have gone into creating the current state of affairs, we have 20 years of work ahead to defang and criminalize the behavior that led us here. Run for office, take control of the Democratic party, and make it stand for something again. It won't happen overnight, and it won't happen unless people who haven't been steeped in the political classes get involved.
posted by benzenedream at 9:52 AM on January 25, 2018 [10 favorites]


Losing the midterms likely means losing democracy in the US.
posted by LarsC at 9:55 AM on January 25, 2018 [52 favorites]




I'm not going to get it if I am willing to set everything on fire and lose the midterms if we don't win one of those battles now.

I suspect that if we don't start drawing some lines, we...well, we may not literally lose the midterms, because people are pretty riled up regardless. But we're at a point where the Democratic Party stands for the wrong things - not because every Democratic politician, activist or member stands for the wrong things, but because it is becoming obvious to more and more people that the Democratic Party as an institution does not go to bat for marginalized people. It sold out welfare recipients - starting, as you see, with the most vulnerable and disrespected in American society - for cheap, stupid political gain and it's been a downhill slide ever since. Since the Democratic Party mobilizes voters by using the language of civil rights and justice, the more obvious the slippage between language and reality, the less motivated people are.

On a purely strategic level, I think a "this far and no further" strategy would be a vote-getter, because I think most non-conservative Americans are absolutely desperate for someone somewhere to stand up and do the right thing just because it's right. Given that our problem isn't numbers but turnout, I think this is significant.
posted by Frowner at 10:00 AM on January 25, 2018 [22 favorites]


The little sit-down with Netanyahu must be a great chance to catch up on how to get away with creating a theocratic ethno-nationalist state. After all, Israel is conducting their own disgustingly hateful--and possibly even more evil--deportation push. Note the language from Netanyahu (emphasis mine):
Netanyahu said he has a three-pronged policy regarding getting migrants to leave the country, with the current focus being to encourage most of them to self-deport to a third country – which reports have identified as Rwanda.

In the years leading up to 2012, a flood of African migrants crossed into Israel illegally, at one point reaching around 64,000.

Netanyahu said that the state had already carried out the first two prongs of its strategy: stopping the flow of new migrants by building a wall and through legislation, as well as getting more than 20,000 migrants to leave.

The third stage of deporting migrants at an increased pace, he said, “can be carried out thanks to an international agreement which I obtained which allows us to deport the 40,000 remaining infiltrators against their will.”

“This is very important. This will allow us to empty the Holot Detention Center in the future and to redirect portions of the large resources we are using there,” from guarding the migrants, to other needs of the state.
[...]
Israel is a signatory to the Convention on Refugees which prevents it and other signatories from deporting illegal migrants back to their countries of origin if they would face persecution.
Even more horrifying is that the government is putting bounties out for helping "smooth" the process. This sounds like what would happen if Trump invited the Charlottesville Nazis (who Netanyahu barely even bothered to comment on, let alone denounce) to volunteer for their own ICE division. Again, not surprising, considering Netanyahu's words match exactly the worst GOP rhetoric of the last few decades, and the framing is explicitly using white supremacist wording and concepts that is largely inspired by or even directly taken from actual Nazis. So we have the president of a country founded by refugees from the Holocaust, who is himself the son of a refugee from the Holocaust, making deporting refugees from similarly horrible situations a pillar of his domestic policy.

And sadly, the opposition leadership seems to be just as feckless as Schumer et al:
The law was a matter of debate in the Zionist Camp faction prior to Monday’s vote. Party chairperson Avi Gabay and party whip MK Yoel Chasson supported the law in its current form, and urged party members to vote for it – but many balked, saying they could not vote for it due to “reasons of conscience.” The party allowed MKs to vote as they wished, and most of them voted against the law.
There is at least a small glimmer of hope, though, in that a good number of Israelis, and many Holocaust survivors and their descendants seem appropriately horrified by the parallels.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:02 AM on January 25, 2018 [20 favorites]


"I've always felt very secure and confident with myself in knowing what I could do and what I could not," Winfrey explained to InStyle Magazine. "And so it's not something that interests me. I don't have the DNA for it."

I saw somebody react to Winfrey's speech with the idea that it wasn't about Winfrey lining up for a run; it was about Winfrey encouraging everyone else to step up, get involved, and run for an office themselves. I felt like that was a better takeaway than this speculation about her aspirations. The media want a horse race; we should ignore them.
posted by nubs at 10:03 AM on January 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


Of course there are other issues too. It's worth losing the midterms if we could secure legal abortion for a generation. It's worth losing the midterms if we could substantially reduce gun deaths. It's worth losing the midterms if we could gain substantial effort towards fighting climate change. Etc.

Just because I didn't do a long laundry list of the issues doesn't mean I'm not aware of them.


I don't think being aware of all the ways people could suffer if we lose the midterms, yet still saying it would be okay, is really a point in your favor. You may have meant to compare losing the midterms to losing the Southern vote but that's not really a good comparison at all. This is not some abstract loss of certain swathes of voters in future elections. This is the difference between being able to hold back things we know beyond a shadow of a doubt the people already in office want to do. That doesn't even address rolling back things like environmental crimes they're committing. Just holding the line.

Saying it would be okay to lose the midterms if we get one thing is essentially anti-intersectionality. It's declaring that we're cool with a dozen other groups - not even necessarily just folks who live outside the US borders - getting completely fucked over so long as we mark off one win. That goes beyond debates about politics is the art of the possible and what are and are not acceptable tradeoffs. This is take the ball and go home where doing so means actual death for people. How is that not just as bad as what is being pointed at dems above?

On a purely strategic level, I think a "this far and no further" strategy would be a vote-getter, because I think most non-conservative Americans are absolutely desperate for someone somewhere to stand up and do the right thing just because it's right.

I'm inclined to think you're right and I'll stand with you to make the argument. I just want to actually have the argument, plot the approach, and not act like the dude in the march who screams murdering pigs and throws a molotov cocktail. To refocus on my initial complaint: simply looking at a simple 80% support the dreamers as if that's the start and end of the discussion and that there's not potentially a lot of falloff the second things are phrased in a practical matter... it's like looking at these polls where the opponent is a nameless Dem and thinking that means we know what the final vote will be. We saw how far off that could be when people were saying sure I'd vote for a woman president and nobody realized there was an unspoken just not that one where "that one" turns out to be "any of them."
posted by phearlez at 10:07 AM on January 25, 2018 [10 favorites]


Quinnipiac Poll: President Donald Trump is not a good role model for children, voters say 67 - 29 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President, combined with (If approve/disapprove) do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?"

White Men: approve strongly or somewhat: 46%. Disapprove strongly or somewhat: 49%.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:10 AM on January 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


ICE has some evil fucker(s) doing data mining for targets that will only gladden trump's base. I'm curious to see the links between them and Miller.
posted by Burhanistan at 10:02 AM on January 25 [+] [!]


Miller was Communications Director for Jeff Sessions when he was a Senator AND he was Press Secretary to crazy Republican Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota and Republican Congressman John Shadegg from Arizona. Miller's connections are spread out amongst some of the nuttiest of the Right's wingnuts. The White House has continued to have a direct personal connection to Jeff Sessions through Stephen Miller.
posted by W Grant at 10:14 AM on January 25, 2018 [6 favorites]


More anonymously sourced disclosures about the Mueller are coming out in the wake of Trump's remarks yesterday—Bloomberg: Mueller Almost Done With Obstruction Part of Trump Probe, Sources Say:
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is moving at a far faster pace than previously known and appears to be wrapping up at least one key part of his investigation -- whether President Donald Trump obstructed justice, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Mueller has quietly moved closer to those around Trump by interviewing Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, National Security Agency Director Michael Rogers, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former FBI Director James Comey in recent weeks, officials said. His team has also interviewed CIA Director Mike Pompeo, NBC News reported.[...]

Even if Mueller wraps up the obstruction probe, other elements of his investigation -- such as whether Trump or anyone close to him helped Russia interfere in the 2016 presidential election or broke any other laws -- are likely to continue for months more, said two officials who asked to remain anonymous speaking about the probe.
As usual, the subtext to this story is who's leaking this information and what their agenda is, and Team Trump tends to be leakier than the pro-Mueller forces.

P.S. Should we be preparing for a new thread? Now that Trump's at Davos, he's bound to unleash a major gaff soon.
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:16 AM on January 25, 2018 [14 favorites]


Heather Timmons, Quartz: Davos attendees are quietly planning to walk out of Trump’s speech
A growing number of Davos attendees are planning to walk out of US president Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum this Friday (Jan. 26), several conference-goers told Quartz, to protest his remarks about African countries earlier this month.

Trump repeatedly called African countries “shitholes” in a closed-door meeting about immigration, attendee Senator Dick Durbin and others have said.

Boycotting Trump’s Davos speech was first broached by Business Leadership South Africa CEO (and Davos attendee) Bonang Mohale in an open letter. Leaving Trump’s speech after he starts is probably more powerful than boycotting it entirely, some Davos attendees speculate.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:19 AM on January 25, 2018 [45 favorites]


P.S. Should we be preparing for a new thread? Now that Trump's at Davos, he's bound to unleash a major gaff soon.

Oh he's already started shitting on the Palestinians:
when they disrespected us a week ago by not allowing our great vice president to see them and we give them and we give them hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and support
So yeah we're already in "sink a typical administration" level of incompetence twenty minutes in. But I guess it's just a lazy Thursday afternoon in this timeline.
posted by Talez at 10:21 AM on January 25, 2018 [7 favorites]


The third stage of deporting migrants at an increased pace, he said, “can be carried out thanks to an international agreement which I obtained which allows us to deport the 40,000 remaining infiltrators against their will.”

Infiltrators? Christ, what an asshole.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 10:21 AM on January 25, 2018 [19 favorites]


The thought of collusion charges for those who harbor illegal immigrants, like collusive spouses, collusive employers, collusive educational facilities, wow, this is just like Myanmar, potentially. If we are not collusive in protecting human rights in this country, inside this country we will find ourselves outside the law for being anything but monsters, and monsters on a very personal level. On the level of stripping children from their parents, the only difference here is we haven't started loading boxcars with people, yet. From the numbers of how much it takes to deport; the wall is cheaper than ICE. Suddenly I am reminded of Frost's poem:

Fire and Ice

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ICE
Is also great
And would suffice.

Once a nation creates legions of Monsters it is difficult to find them other employment once the need for Monsters subsides. So take for instance, Myanmar, whose military has behaved monstrously for some time, the populace can't just make them go away, they are better fed, and certainly better armed. They will take direction from whomever pays them for as long as that goes on.

ICE and private prison slavery, this is a dangerous precedent for our nation. Personally I have always felt great pride in the open borders of North America. The inherent peacefulness of discourse and trade, and tourism between the three main nations exists for me as a peak of civilization.
posted by Oyéah at 10:23 AM on January 25, 2018 [17 favorites]


NBC/WSJ poll: 60% support marijuana legalization.

Dems: 73%
Indies: 64%
GOP: 43%

Under 35: 73%
posted by Chrysostom at 10:25 AM on January 25, 2018 [18 favorites]


Roll Call, Immigration Crackdown Raises Fears of Seeking Health Care
Immigrants around the country who are on edge about broader enforcement under the Trump administration have been skipping appointments, questioning whether enrolling in government-funded health care coverage could undermine their immigration applications and showing anxiety about visiting unfamiliar physicians, according to nearly two dozen medical providers and lawyers interviewed recently.

Isaura, an undocumented mother of two children living in the Washington, D.C., metro area, described the deep apprehensions some immigrants feel about venturing out in the current political climate.

“Now I feel scared to even go to a new doctor because you don’t know what can happen. You have to give all the information — give your address and personal information — and if I don’t know somebody, I don’t go,” Isaura said. Her older son is asthmatic and has allergies.

“I’m very nervous to go to a new doctor or new place because I’m scared to drive, and everyone else feels the same. Everyone feels threatened because the police can stop you,” said Isaura, who asked that her last name not be used.
posted by zachlipton at 10:29 AM on January 25, 2018 [27 favorites]


Anyone waiting for the fascist goons breaking down doors and dragging people away from your favorite dystopian future, the future is now and it's called ICE.
posted by chaz at 10:33 AM on January 25, 2018 [52 favorites]


TPM: We’re Not Focused On the Biggest Part of Trump’s Immigration Agenda

What is just as important is what is not included. The so-called “comprehensive immigration reform” which was several times pushed and failed over the last decade had two basic pillars: new security and impediments to illegal immigration and some settlement for the more than 10 million undocumented immigrants who are already in the country and in many cases have been here for years or even decades. “DACA” was one portion of that larger whole – what we might call the most “deserving” subsection the 10 to 12 million: undocumented immigrants who came too young to have any choice in the matter and knew no other country than the US, despite not being citizens.

Trump’s pillars don’t explicitly say these 10 to 12 million people must all be deported. But that’s the upshot. And it seems unlikely that we’ll remain in the status quo of the last dozen years or so. Trump is on record for mass deportation and he’s shown for a year that he is as good as his word. We don’t need to guess. Mass deportation is already the policy and practice.

posted by T.D. Strange at 10:37 AM on January 25, 2018 [20 favorites]


So it turns out despite being on the list of people coming, Kelly was left behind like a kid who wasn't allowed to come to Disneyland.

I'm really going to miss him.
posted by Talez at 10:38 AM on January 25, 2018


I guess this NYT article sorta answers my questions above: Most Americans Want Legal Status for ‘Dreamers.’ These People Don’t.
posted by GrammarMoses at 10:40 AM on January 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


Maybe if they had held out longer than a weekend the Dreamers wouldn't be in this situation.

out of curiosity does anyone really think that if they'd just kept the shutdown going the GOP would have caved on DACA

I'm just trying to puzzle out a scenario in which Republicans are successfully pressured into doing the right thing and I have no frame of reference for this
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:41 AM on January 25, 2018 [21 favorites]


Thank you mods for your diligence in pruning the overly chatty comments (mine included). You're doing yeoman's work. (I'm being sincere.)

And with this chatty comment, I'm going to do my very best to not post any chatty comments for at least a little while. Starting..... now.
posted by diogenes at 10:47 AM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


The secret society story got stupider.

@mkraju: “Sources familiar with the text exchange on the ‘secret society’ say the calendars Page mentioned are a reference to gag gift of Putin-themed calendars that Strzok purchased for those working on the early stage of the Russia investigation,” @jeremyherb and @LauraAJarrett report
posted by zachlipton at 10:47 AM on January 25, 2018 [19 favorites]




jenfullmoon: Just wait until they start deporting the people who became citizens.

They're already doing that, it's called Operation Janus.
posted by joedan at 10:59 AM on January 25, 2018 [15 favorites]




> They're already doing that, it's called Operation Janus.

The plan to take away citizenship from those who already have it is named after The Two-Faced God.

It's like the only part of the government Republicans are willing to keep open is the Department of Ironic Naming Conventions.
posted by Freon at 11:05 AM on January 25, 2018 [34 favorites]


Operation Janus. Two-Face. Now they're going straight for Batman- villain evil.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:05 AM on January 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


NEW THREAD ALERT
posted by yoga at 11:08 AM on January 25, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'm seriously scared they will deport my wife. She became a naturalized citizen last year. Maybe they'll rummage through her past to find an excuse.

I wonder if Melania (now Trump) put down somewhere on her application that she had a college degree? And, of course, there were those modeling work violations...
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:10 AM on January 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


>> jenfullmoon: Just wait until they start deporting the people who became citizens.

> joedan: They're already doing that, it's called Operation Janus.
"I can only assume the Justice Department is proudly publicizing this first denaturalization because we're going to see ramped-up efforts to denaturalize people. I find this very distressing," said one expert.
Speaking as a naturalized immigrant, this is fine. "Denaturalization" is a perfectly cromulent word, and I didn't really need my lunch today, thank you.
posted by RedOrGreen at 11:15 AM on January 25, 2018 [16 favorites]


It was pretty clear after the way they went after PRs during the first Muslim ban that Citizenship was probably meaningless too, and yeah, they absolutely will work their way up to that. This is one occasion where that one poem absolutely is worth paying attention to.
posted by Artw at 11:17 AM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


Dances - I too am married to a naturalized citizen and can sympathize with the anxiety here, but, all jokes about the operation name aside, the article linked above about Operation Janus notes that all three men targeted for denaturalization had pretty seriously atypical arrival stories involving the use of multiple names (not that I think what is happening to them is justified). One of the men arrive without any paperwork, gave a different name from the one he later used in an asylum claim (after failing to appear on the original deportation order) and when he ultimately became naturalized by marriage to a US citizen.

When this concern first arose in the immediate wake of the election I was somewhat comforted by the fact that, historically, the only people who had gotten their naturalization revoked were, as mentioned in the article, those who had lied about being Nazis. The US Supreme court ruled last year that non-material errors on applications could not, after the fact, be used to revoke citizenship.

I feel bad for these men, and think there is no actual valid reason they should be deported/stripped of their citizenship, but this is not (yet) cause for concern amongst naturalized citizens who have consistently used the same - accurate - information in their interactions with the us gov.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:19 AM on January 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


who have consistently used the same - accurate - information in their interactions with the us gov.

With zero fraudulent intent, I sometimes put my middle initial on forms, sometimes use my full middle name, and sometimes leave off any mention of a middle name.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:21 AM on January 25, 2018 [7 favorites]


As I mentioned the supreme court has rejected the notion of stripping citizenship over immaterial or clerical errors. John Q Public and John Public are reasonably read as (possibly the same person). The examples I recall at the time included I think getting addresses close but not exactly right, or approximating months and years of employment/housing.

The case described involves him entering the country as Dalvinder and then ultimately seeking asylum and citizenship as Baljinder.

Do I think that the standard should have to be affirmative proof that he was trying to deceive the government when he arrived? absolutely. Does this seem like something clearly motivated by deep seated beliefs in white supremacy/racism? also absolutely.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:27 AM on January 25, 2018


Reminder: new thread
posted by Chrysostom at 11:28 AM on January 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Exceptional_Hubris: I feel bad for these men, and think there is no actual valid reason they should be deported/stripped of their citizenship, but this is not (yet) cause for concern amongst naturalized citizens who have consistently used the same - accurate - information in their interactions with the us gov.

Eponysterical.

As schadenfrau noted above, the GOP wants ethnic cleansing. That's the end game, and Sessions' DOJ starting up Operation Janus again after it had been disbanded and expanding its scope should be cause for concern among all of us.
posted by joedan at 11:31 AM on January 25, 2018 [14 favorites]


Responding to a comment in here before I skip over to the new thread:

I'm seriously scared they will deport my wife. She became a naturalized citizen last year. Maybe they'll rummage through her past to find an excuse.

A couple I'm friends with are uneasy for similar reasons. She was born in Mexico and sort of informally adopted by an aunt and uncle who were US citizens, and the paperwork isn't quite as ironclad as one might hope in this day and age...

They've been married for several years by now, though, and she's always lived here.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:33 AM on January 25, 2018 [6 favorites]


naturalized citizens who have consistently used the same - accurate - information in their interactions with the us gov.

As Cardinal Richelieu is alleged to have said, If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him. Naturalization paperwork involves rendering a regular, messy life into orderly paperwork, and mistakes and omissions can creep in. Would you bet your citizenship on giving an absolutely complete answer to open ended questions like Have you ever been a member of or associated with any organization, association, fund foundation, party, club, society, or similar group in the United States or in any other place?
posted by zamboni at 11:44 AM on January 25, 2018 [23 favorites]


Haaaa! I just watched Grassley escape through the flags, and Ted Cruz's face at the end is the best part.
posted by Don Pepino at 12:04 PM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


There is a new thread, but to respond to a comment:

All I can think of in re the immigration situation is that Operation Janus, the stepping up of raids, the targeting of places and people who used to be informally left alone, etc mean that we need to make trouble now. The more inconvenient and public it is to deport the people who are being targeted, the harder it is for them to expand. I think this is a great time to start calling and writing our state and local government and maybe the federal agencies that do this stuff - not because I expect, like, letters to ICE to do any immediate good, but because we need to make their every step as much more inconvenient as we possibly can.

Republicans don't have any natural stopping point on immigration except business interests, and business interests aren't going to help the most precarious immigrants. Even if business interests are able to carve out some kind of "undocumented people are okay as long as they are being economically exploited by us", that will leave vast, vast populations who will be vulnerable to deportation. The point isn't "rah rah Democrats, everything would be so different if...." but that we need to not underestimate the GOP commitment to racist nationalism and how they see it benefiting them at the polls.

"Ethnic cleansing that is not 100% because deportations are expensive and big business needs underpaid migrant labor, but everyone else gets it in the neck" is the best GOP scenario.

So I guess all I can think of to do is to get active (or more active) now on this issue. Even if we can't stop it, slowing it or halting it at merely-very-bad is worth doing.
posted by Frowner at 12:07 PM on January 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


I think, and it goes along with the excellent article linked upthread by Miko, that all Americans and especially us on the left, tend to think of America as being "better than this".

On the left especially we've got the mostly laudable urge to try and see things from the other person's POV and not to vilify our opponents. The problem is that can blind us to reality if we aren't careful.

In the 1960's the USA did not so much defeat racism, as defeat the **WORD** racism. Today even the KKK tries, in public anyway, to proclaim that it isn't racist. To a lot of people, mostly white liberals, this was taken as evidence that America had been purged of racism (except for a few unpleasant individuals) and that broadly appeals to racism weren't proper and wouldn't work.

We, white liberalism that is, took it to mean that the old idea of America as a white Christian ethnostate had been defeated.

But it wasn't. The words were, but not the idea.

If you spoke to people who advocate for policies that will result in America as a white Christian ethnostate and asked them about it in those words I'm certain that most of them would be genuinely, honestly, shocked and offended. The words "white Christian ethnostate" have been successfully demonized, even those working for one mostly don't say so upfront or even admit it in the dark recesses of their minds. We si successfully convinced America that that racism was bad, so today even racists (outside the true fringe) don't want to think of themselves as racist.

And if the people working to transform America into a white Christian ethnostate mostly can't even admit it to themselves, then it's doubly hard for us on the liberal side who (mostly laudably) try not to think of our opponents as bad people.

Even today, even after Trump, even after all the fucking wall talk, even after the mass deportations talk, even after the attacks on the DREAMERS, even after all that's happened in the past year a whole lot of us on the white liberal side of things still will not go so far as to think, much less say, that a whole lot of people on the Republican side are trying to turn America into a white Christian ethnostate.

Since we made racist the most dire of all possible accusations, we're reluctant to label even the most virulent and active racist as such unless they proudly self identify as racist (and sometimes not even then).

Which leaves us with these self evidently false statements like "this isn't who we are", or "this isn't what America is", or "we're better than this".

There's huge segments of the white population who really, genuinely, do want to turn America into a white Christian ethnostate. They often won't admit it, not even in their own minds, but that's their goal. That's why they voted for Trump, that's why they chanted "BUILD THAT WALL", that's why they fear and want to deport undocumented immigrants.

And that's why it's so damn hard to fight them, because we don't even really know how many of them there are, what their true limits are (if they have any), or really anything else. We can guess at their numbers by polling on related issues that sound them out, but it isn't perfect.

And that's also why the Democratic Party is having such a difficult time here. Because even more than the average white liberal, the leaders of the Democratic Party are still in denial about the true state of American politics. They're very invested in the idea that racism was defeated in 1968, that the dream of America as a white Christian ethnostate is dead and buried, and that while the Republicans may be somewhat wrong on many things they're fundamentally good people who have a vision for America that is (in the broad strokes anyway) basically the same as ours.

None of that is true. America is divided on the fundamental question of what America actually **IS**, and it has been since basically the founding of the country. The white nationalist forces have been dealt a long series of defeats, they've been driven underground even, but over half of white Americans voted for Trump and that tells us that a large number of white Americans still seek America as a white Christian ethnostate.

This is who we are. This is us. They are part of "us", at least in the sense that we're all citizens of the same fractured, fragmented, deeply divided, nation.

They've never really been defeated, they just suffer temporary setbacks. And when they're knocked back a little we on the side of light and good pat ourselves on the back, declare the job well done and the future bright, and fall back to our urban bastions while they rebuild yet again.

As long as the Democrats (in the sense of elected officials and party hierarchy) are convinced that the job is done and the forces of white nationalism are dead and buried, then of course they won't draw lines in the sand or make bold stands against those forces. And it takes a lot to nudge a comfortable white liberal out of their delusions of security and that the Republicans share a vision of America as a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-religious, polity.
posted by sotonohito at 12:11 PM on January 25, 2018 [35 favorites]


How about the Democrats subpoena all the texts and email of the FBI New York office.

Illegal leaking of search warrants? Conspiracy to blackmail Comey regarding the Clinton emails? Collusion with Rudi Giuliani for the Trump campaign?
posted by JackFlash at 12:20 PM on January 25, 2018 [7 favorites]


It’s also important to remeber no one is safe under a white ethnostate, even if they somehow got thier bloody all white nation, a new group would have to emerge to take the blunt of violence and hatred. The hierarchy and hatred is the point.
posted by The Whelk at 1:19 PM on January 25, 2018 [42 favorites]


Now that there's a new thread, I can say what's been on my mind this whole time.

Am I the only one here who kept reading the thread title as "I'll be in the Androgyne"?
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:59 PM on January 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


Oh y'all.

Okay, I'll confess. Three seconds after I posted the title, I realized I should have written it as "Angry Dome". That seems to be the way it's written in all of the references online, too.

But I ask you, is it an angry dome? Or is it an angrydome? Like thunderdome? Or thundercats? Or polecat? Or requiescat?

Nevertheless, if I'd had an edit window on the title, I would have changed it.

I thought about asking the mods to do so, but given all of their work of moderating the thread, I didn't think they needed one more trivial edit to make. But now, and every time I've loaded up this thread since I posted it, I've regretted it.

I blame Zoid Berg!
posted by darkstar at 9:20 AM on January 26, 2018 [7 favorites]


"Angry dome" is funnier than "anger dome" because it makes less sense.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 10:52 AM on January 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


I don't want to get beyond angrydome.
posted by JHarris at 2:32 PM on January 28, 2018 [7 favorites]


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