Like a bridge over troubled water
January 19, 2018 6:35 AM   Subscribe

As Macron says 'non' to a financial services deal and Boris tries to distract everyone with his bridge here's Everything you need to know about the Brexit endgame in five minutes
posted by fearfulsymmetry (43 comments total) 21 users marked this as a favorite
 
Ugh, thank you for using the word distract. I wish I could still be astonished at the media reaction to it as "unlikely" or an "ego-trip".
posted by opsin at 6:43 AM on January 19, 2018


Boris is just one big buffoonish distraction albeit a sometimes clever one.
Unfortunately a certain subsection of the British populous finds this charming and amusing so he must be a good fellow.
Bleah.
posted by adamvasco at 7:06 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


It's like Back to the Future, but with trading jargon instead of weird incest subplots.

Well, at least someone's keeping their sense of humour.
posted by Halloween Jack at 7:08 AM on January 19, 2018


Boris is just one big buffoonish distraction albeit a sometimes clever one.

Charlie Brooker says it well:

Feeble jingowank spluttered by a clown-vandal.

Works for Trump too.
posted by adept256 at 7:24 AM on January 19, 2018 [16 favorites]




A bridge, Boris? Why not a zipline?!
posted by chavenet at 7:26 AM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]




The problem with the bridge is, if you ever decide to build a dam at either end of the Channel so that it can be drained and transformed into vast new areas of productive agricultural land and as many roads as you want, then the bridge will be redundant and you'll wish you'd kept that money to build the aqueducts that will be needed to bring all the rivers to the new boundary of the sea.

Also, the border problem seems easy. You just hold a referendum demanding that the people of Northern Ireland decide whether they prefer having an open border with Ireland, or an open border with the rest of the UK. Whichever side loses, 49-51% or whatever, they will have no choice but to fully accept the result as the democratic will of the people.
posted by sfenders at 7:39 AM on January 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


Brexiteers need a bridge they can symbolically blow up.

More recent Brexiteer symbolism: the Sun's Bye-EU Tapestry. James O'Brien's take.
posted by rory at 7:40 AM on January 19, 2018


Matthew Parris wrote an interesting article the other which is behind the Times firewall but The Express summaries it here

He claims the plans for the softest of soft brexits were always in place as that's the only thing that can work but they (the establishment/government) let the brexiteers think they had a chance so they didn't thrash around and snap the line (he uses an extended fishing metaphor) until they were exhausted by the real world's opposition and not the governments:

He said much like a big fish caught on a line, Brexiteers were being allowed to tire themselves out before they were reeled in.

Mr Parris wrote for the Times newspaper: “A year ago they were in fighting mood. As every fisherman knows, a powerful fish can break the line or rip the hook from its cheek, especially while the creature is fresh from the fight.

“It’s important in this early stage not to test the fish to its limit.”

He said Brexiteers were being manipulated and led to believe they were in the driving seat when really plans for a soft - or “nominal” - Brexit were already in place.

Mr Parris wrote: “I offer Brexiteers this warning. You’re heading for a soft Brexit. It’s just that they haven’t told you yet. And when you’re finally landed, flapping and gasping on deck, don’t say we didn’t warn you.


We shall see
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:51 AM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


I'd so love it if the City burns in Brexit. It's unlikely but maybe..
posted by jeffburdges at 7:58 AM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Brexiteers just seem to think it'll be like the partner that wants out of the marriage but still wants to live at home, in the guest bedroom, but not pay the utilities or for groceries.

It would just be easier for the EU to hard Brexit the UK and let the charred remains of the UK government and economy work out how to get themselves Most Favored Nation status as fast as possible.

Personally I think Northern Ireland can be solved through a union with a pre-approved-for-EU Scotland, but I find it hard for the Unionists or the Republicans to buy into what would be giving up their raison d'êtres.
posted by dw at 8:19 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


The only thing that ever trickles down from the wealthy is dirty firefighting water when there's any risk of them burning down, jeffburdges. But then I guess you don't care much about people in the UK anyway.

And dw, MFN status is, err, not as positive as it sounds. It just means you get to trade at normal WTO tariff rates.
posted by ambrosen at 8:21 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'd so love it if the City burns in Brexit. It's unlikely but maybe..

I'm sure that the thousands of normal, working-class people who rely upon The City for their livelihoods might take issue your sentiment. (Full disclosure: I am one of those people).
posted by Optamystic at 8:30 AM on January 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


I'm sure that the thousands of normal, working-class people who rely upon The City for their livelihoods might take issue your sentiment. (Full disclosure: I am one of those people).

i don't think his sentiment is going to be why people lose their jobs

i think it was all the people who voted for brexit and the politicians and media who told them it was a good idea

so maybe be pissed at them first
posted by PMdixon at 8:34 AM on January 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


so maybe be pissed at them first

Or maybe all the people outside the UK could shut up with their gloating.
posted by ambrosen at 8:41 AM on January 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


so maybe be pissed at them first

Oh, I've got PLENTY of pissed to go around.
posted by Optamystic at 8:45 AM on January 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


"Also, the border problem seems easy. You just hold a referendum demanding that the people of Northern Ireland decide whether they prefer having an open border with Ireland, or an open border with the rest of the UK. Whichever side loses, 49-51% or whatever, they will have no choice but to fully accept the result as the democratic will of the people."
Im sure that it must be possible to imagine a more sadistic way to reignite the troubles using democratic mechanisms, but this would mean violence.
posted by Blasdelb at 9:11 AM on January 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


orrnyereg May & Macron looking like a couple who've just had a blazing row before a dinner party but keep telling their friends that no, everything's fine, why are you even asking (Twitter)

Great, now I'm imagining the Brexit problem as an episode of Fawlty Towers.

Enter Basil/May as Marcon/Sybil talks on the phone

Marcon/Sybil: I know... I know.... I know...

May/Basil bouncing impatiently up and down

Marcon/Sybil: What **IS** it?

May/Basil: Look, we've got the Russians coming tonight and we still haven't sorted this Article 50 business, can't you get a move on?!

Marcon/Sybil, to the phone: I'm afraid I'm going to have to call you back, Basil is in a snit over something again.
posted by sotonohito at 9:23 AM on January 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


dw: Personally I think Northern Ireland can be solved through a union with a pre-approved-for-EU Scotland, but I find it hard for the Unionists or the Republicans to buy into what would be giving up their raison d'êtres.

If you think Scotland (majority atheist, majority voting for social-democratic or socialist parties) wants anything like a union with Northern Ireland (sectarian split between Presbyterian bampots and a Catholic near-majority), then I have a bridge to sell you in New York. Seriously (incoming US metaphor) it'd be like Alabama merging with Massachusetts.
posted by cstross at 9:44 AM on January 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


You just hold a referendum demanding that the people of Northern Ireland decide whether they prefer having an open border with Ireland, or an open border with the rest of the UK.

And if they vote for "open border with the UK, hard border with Ireland... but we're not paying to maintain it; we'll just post some 'must have x paperwork to enter' signs on some of the roads," then what?

The problem isn't with declaring a hard border; it's with enforcement. And as mentioned, that way lieth blood and explosions. The Good Friday Agreement was less than 20 years ago, and I'm surprised at how little mention it gets in the news I see - like it's ancient history, not relevant to today's political tensions.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:52 AM on January 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Or maybe all the people outside the UK could shut up with their gloating.

Brexit is also going to affect people outside of the UK.
posted by Pendragon at 10:06 AM on January 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Brexit is also going to affect people outside of the UK.

Who will be helped by all the gloating?
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:13 AM on January 19, 2018


What gloating?
posted by biogeo at 10:22 AM on January 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Brexiteers need a bridge they can symbolically blow up.

Apparently they were speculating (some time before Brexit) about how to seal off the Channel Tunnel, should a future Napoleon or Hitler try to use it to invade Britain, and came to the conclusion that it would require a nuclear demolition charge (conventional explosives being insufficiently powerful to collapse and flood the tunnel).

The problem with this would be that it would also turn the tunnel into a supergun, firing jets of radioactive debris into the heart of Kent and the vicinity of Calais. Though, if Boris gave the order for such a splendid act of symbolism, I can't see him being too concerned with such piffling trifles.
posted by acb at 12:10 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


He said Brexiteers were being manipulated and led to believe they were in the driving seat when really plans for a soft - or “nominal” - Brexit were already in place.

The only problem with a “nominal” Brexit is that it still strips all UK citizens of their rights to live, work and move freely in the EU, and vice versa. The best that will come of it is that those already there will get a grandfathered right to stay in the country they are in, on the terms they are in. (The UK doesn't want thousands of grumpy, economically unproductive pensioners deported from Spain to suddenly require housing and health services, and will presumably be willing to pay Spain and the EU a lot to ensure that they get to stay.) Which means that, if you're a Briton working in, say, Paris, you can stay there, but if you're thinking of trying your luck in Berlin or Barcelona, you're SOL. If you're a Briton who lives in the UK but have been thinking of moving to the continent for a while, tough luck: you should have done so earlier. (Of course, your mileage will vary with wealth.)

And that is the best possibility; it could well be that there will be no such grandfathering arrangement, and Britons in Europe will have a grace period of a few years, after which they'll need visas, as other non-EU nationals do.
posted by acb at 12:20 PM on January 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Presumably a “nominal” Brexit is EEA membership. And frankly, even though I'm a rare constituent who's ever written to my MEPs*, I'd happily trust the rest of the Parliament and the Commission and the Council to get on pretty well without any UK input. So that would have been pretty much fine by me.

*I got a reply from the Lib Dem in 3 days, the Labour in 3 months, and no reply from the Tory or from William, Earl of Dartmouth (UKIP).
posted by ambrosen at 12:33 PM on January 19, 2018


You mean EFTA membership? EEA is the agreement as a whole.
posted by MiltonRandKalman at 12:40 PM on January 19, 2018




"Jigsaw puzzles - the British ones are magnificent!"

1973: Jigsaw puzzles, undies and kettles - just some of the British goods French housewives wanted to see in their shops, post-Britain joining the EEC

posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:49 AM on January 21, 2018






UK Polling Report
ICM found 47% of people agreeing with a a statement that “I think the public should have the chance to take a final decision on whether or not to leave the EU in another referendum when the outcome of the negotiation is known?”. The Guardian have strangely written this up as a rise in Labour support for a second referendum, when ICM don’t appear to have ever asked this question before to compare it to. As all regular readers will know, how you ask a question can produce very different results and questions on a second referendum seem to show particular variation depending on how the question was asked... My guess is that the higher support for a second referendum here may well be down to wording rather than a change in support, though as ever, we’ll only really know when we see repeats of questions that have been asked in the past.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:11 AM on January 27, 2018


The idea of another referendum makes me groan, but this is a good discussion and argument in its favour:

The tragicomedy of Brexit needs resolution by another referendum by Brendan Donnelly, on the LSE Brexit blog.
posted by tavegyl at 11:50 PM on January 28, 2018 [1 favorite]


The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU: BuzzFeed News has seen a new Brexit impact assessment, which says leaving the EU will adversely hit almost every sector and every UK region.
posted by rory at 2:01 PM on January 29, 2018 [2 favorites]


I think this depends on the meaning of "worse off".

You see, Brexit USED to be for economic reasons, such as having 350 million more per week for the ailing health system, which is on the verge of collapse.
Now, it is more about unshackling the UK from the failing EU, which will go bankrupt any time, shortly after the UK stops paying for everything. You don't want to be around when that shit hits the fan.

Also, I read a SHOCK report on how the EU is scheming to have a central government issuing (federal) EU laws and local state governments that issue local laws optimized for local conditions, in addition to a single currency and just one army. You only need to look at the failed US to realize immediately that this is a terrible idea.
posted by sour cream at 8:14 AM on January 30, 2018


Could you clarify what you mean, sour cream? I don't get who you're mocking (or maybe you're serious, which I also can't get a read on).
posted by ambrosen at 12:06 PM on January 30, 2018




Rest assured, when Brexit bombs, it won’t be the fault of the Tory right.
The civil service is the latest to be flamed by Jacob Rees-Mogg and co, who blame everyone but themselves.
posted by adamvasco at 7:38 AM on February 4, 2018




Jacob Rees-Mogg is in line for a huge personal windfall when Britain exits the single market.
For the good of the country no doubt. Absolute tosser.
posted by adamvasco at 12:06 PM on February 7, 2018 [1 favorite]


Fintan O’Toole: Is Brexit the maddest thing England has ever done? Not quite
Even the worst Brexit will be nothing like the catastrophe of the Hundred Years War.
It is astonishing how much pain people will suffer and inflict rather than admit they made a mistake. Brexit is not the Hundred Years War, but unless someone finds a way out it now, the consequences will be felt for a century.
posted by adamvasco at 11:31 AM on February 14, 2018


Ultimately a disaster, but it was triggered by outside causes - a questionable accession to the French throne, and then the French confiscation of the Duchy of Aquitaine. Brexit is an own goal.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:41 AM on February 14, 2018


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