Future farms, today: autonomous agriculture and robot-assisted fieldwork
March 9, 2018 10:32 AM Subscribe
Wired is looking to the (near) future of farming in a series of pieces out recently: from the autonomous, multi-purpose "farm bot" that is capable of performing 100-plus jobs, from hay baler and seeder to rock picker and manure spreader, via an arsenal of tool modules [YouTube], farmer-assisting robotic lettuce picker and other advanced technologies to improve farm and orchard efficiencies (Wired video), to how new Phone-Powered AI Spots Sick Plants With Remarkable Accuracy and a quick look at 6 ways of extending the shelf-life of foods. The first article cites a 2016 Goldman-Sachs "Equity Research" report (PDF) that provides some context and forecasts for where there are current inefficiencies that this AgTech is now working to address.
But browse down the page of farming-tagged articles and you'll find some more dire forecasts related to this future tech: We Can't Let John Deere Destroy the Very Idea of Ownership and New High-Tech Farm Equipment Is a Nightmare for Farmers (previously), both articles from 2015 that identify the problems with leased equipment and software, and the trouble with maintaining future technologies today. And these issues haven't gone away, as noted in the top5 3 trends (and issues) in agriculture technology, being 1) the need to educate farmers on how to use the new tech, 2) "big data" problems with data breaches could become problems for farmers, and 3) the potential for a range of "robotics" solutions.
But browse down the page of farming-tagged articles and you'll find some more dire forecasts related to this future tech: We Can't Let John Deere Destroy the Very Idea of Ownership and New High-Tech Farm Equipment Is a Nightmare for Farmers (previously), both articles from 2015 that identify the problems with leased equipment and software, and the trouble with maintaining future technologies today. And these issues haven't gone away, as noted in the top
the autonomous, multi-purpose "farm bot" that is capable of performing 100-plus jobs
All that's missing is a slugbot-inspired module to pluck up now-obsolete farm workers and drop them into its fermentation tank to power itself on the literal corpse of the American agricultural community.
Anyway, these robots have like 20 years tops of usefulness before all easily arable land is ruined by desertification via drought/erosion/warming/etc. After that agriculture will be in marginal areas too small, rocky, and irregular to lend themselves to cultivation by enormous, lumbering machines that in any case we won't able to power or maintain. But hey, why not look on the bright side: lettuce will be half a cent cheaper for a little while.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:01 AM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
All that's missing is a slugbot-inspired module to pluck up now-obsolete farm workers and drop them into its fermentation tank to power itself on the literal corpse of the American agricultural community.
Anyway, these robots have like 20 years tops of usefulness before all easily arable land is ruined by desertification via drought/erosion/warming/etc. After that agriculture will be in marginal areas too small, rocky, and irregular to lend themselves to cultivation by enormous, lumbering machines that in any case we won't able to power or maintain. But hey, why not look on the bright side: lettuce will be half a cent cheaper for a little while.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:01 AM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Burger-flipping robot so far fails to replace ostensibly low-skilled workers.
posted by clawsoon at 11:09 AM on March 9, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 11:09 AM on March 9, 2018
Anyway, these robots have like 20 years tops of usefulness before all easily arable land is ruined by desertification via drought/erosion/warming/etc.
Farmers aren’t idiots. Soil conservation is a pretty well established science. Cover crops, crop rotation, no till, buffer zones, prairie strips, etc. all contribute to preserving or even improving soil. Take that defeatist doom elsewhere, please.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:29 AM on March 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Farmers aren’t idiots. Soil conservation is a pretty well established science. Cover crops, crop rotation, no till, buffer zones, prairie strips, etc. all contribute to preserving or even improving soil. Take that defeatist doom elsewhere, please.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:29 AM on March 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Anyway, these robots have like 20 years tops of usefulness before all easily arable land is ruined by desertification via drought/erosion/warming/etc.
Perhaps it's telling that the first orders of the 100-in-one wonder are going to farms in Canada.
Less snarky/ pessimistic thoughts - anything that can reduce the use of water in agriculture will reduce the impacts of drought around the world; and as the video in the OP mentions, and there is a very real labor shortage for farm workers -- and that's an article from 2015, pre-Trump and his ICE extravaganza.
posted by filthy light thief at 11:30 AM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Perhaps it's telling that the first orders of the 100-in-one wonder are going to farms in Canada.
Less snarky/ pessimistic thoughts - anything that can reduce the use of water in agriculture will reduce the impacts of drought around the world; and as the video in the OP mentions, and there is a very real labor shortage for farm workers -- and that's an article from 2015, pre-Trump and his ICE extravaganza.
The farm labor movement extends as far back as the early 1960s, when civil rights activist Cesar Chavez mobilized thousands of Latino farm workers in California to fight for better working conditions.It'd be interesting to see how the rate of technology adoption fits with the decline of workers - will workers get replaced, or will the adoption rate fill an existing and widening gap? And I don't wish anyone a life of manual farm labor, though I don't wish them to lose their jobs, either.
That tradition continues today, with foreign-born workers accounting for the vast majority of the country’s agricultural laborers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that half are unauthorized immigrants.
Now, this once-reliable source of labor appears to be dwindling, the result of less migration from Mexico and an aging farm worker population, among other complex factors. Domestic-born workers are unwilling to take their place, according to agricultural experts.
Farmers are left scrambling, and a large portion are taking measures to cope.
Some have begun planting fewer acres or have switched to less labor-intensive or machine-operated crops, while others have moved their operations to Mexico where they can hire larger crews, according to Guadalupe Sandoval, executive director of the California Farm Labor Contractor Association.
posted by filthy light thief at 11:30 AM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I work for UC Davis, which is big into agricultural technology. Smart Farm is a recent initiative.
It's really interesting, but I have concerns about accessibility for smaller/non-corporate farms.
posted by apricot at 11:45 AM on March 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
It's really interesting, but I have concerns about accessibility for smaller/non-corporate farms.
posted by apricot at 11:45 AM on March 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
I mean, a farm bot would be the most historically accurate robot to date.
posted by Groundhog Week at 12:03 PM on March 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Groundhog Week at 12:03 PM on March 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Farmers aren’t idiots. Soil conservation is a pretty well established science. Cover crops, crop rotation, no till, buffer zones, prairie strips, etc. all contribute to preserving or even improving soil. Take that defeatist doom elsewhere, please.
These are all good practices that are not used in the vast majority of commercial non-organic agricultural operations and will not be used as long as the modern factory/robot farm system continues.
It's not defeatist doom to say that agriculture will have to adapt drastically in the pretty near future in order to keep a significant human population alive, and that there's probably no place in that future for million-dollar corporation-owned machines. And I did take my defeatist doom elsewhere: to a piece of marginal land, where I'm a market gardener and small-scale subsistence farmer. I barely make enough money to survive but it's what I do and what I think about.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:08 PM on March 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
These are all good practices that are not used in the vast majority of commercial non-organic agricultural operations and will not be used as long as the modern factory/robot farm system continues.
It's not defeatist doom to say that agriculture will have to adapt drastically in the pretty near future in order to keep a significant human population alive, and that there's probably no place in that future for million-dollar corporation-owned machines. And I did take my defeatist doom elsewhere: to a piece of marginal land, where I'm a market gardener and small-scale subsistence farmer. I barely make enough money to survive but it's what I do and what I think about.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:08 PM on March 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Keep out the immigrants coming to steal our robots jobs.
posted by Keith Talent at 12:59 PM on March 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Keith Talent at 12:59 PM on March 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Farmers map their land using an aerial drone or GPS receiver, upload that data to the Dot controller—a Microsoft Surface Pro
I come from an International Harvester background, my grandfather would not let any green tractor on the land, so the Deere problem some folk have gets a chuckle. The other detail that stands out is "an arsenal of tool modules" to provide those hundreds of different skills, I expect the "modules" are not smart or cheap.
Now look at the robustness and cleverness of the Boston Dynamics robots, once those get cheap via economies of scale and robot factories, machine intelligence that can actually identify weeds and other pests and an open source unix server(s) it'll put Big Tractor right out of business.
It'll allow quality smaller farms to be cost effective and the vast problematic mono-cultures will be split up into right sized fields, problems that need chemicals and heavy equipment that runs for miles in a straight line will be solved the way it's most effective, one weed at a time, early before it slurps up nutrients. A small wasted corner will be used effectively.
Not there yet, there's a vast tooling up phase that has not really started, just try tossing handfuls of dirt into most any industrial robot. (the ceo will probably punch you) And image understanding is not there. And I didn't have a smartphone when I got my MiFi account. So terrible science/tech reporting on the topic, awful corporate strategy, but within our lifetime there will be an ag revolution.
posted by sammyo at 2:30 PM on March 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
I come from an International Harvester background, my grandfather would not let any green tractor on the land, so the Deere problem some folk have gets a chuckle. The other detail that stands out is "an arsenal of tool modules" to provide those hundreds of different skills, I expect the "modules" are not smart or cheap.
Now look at the robustness and cleverness of the Boston Dynamics robots, once those get cheap via economies of scale and robot factories, machine intelligence that can actually identify weeds and other pests and an open source unix server(s) it'll put Big Tractor right out of business.
It'll allow quality smaller farms to be cost effective and the vast problematic mono-cultures will be split up into right sized fields, problems that need chemicals and heavy equipment that runs for miles in a straight line will be solved the way it's most effective, one weed at a time, early before it slurps up nutrients. A small wasted corner will be used effectively.
Not there yet, there's a vast tooling up phase that has not really started, just try tossing handfuls of dirt into most any industrial robot. (the ceo will probably punch you) And image understanding is not there. And I didn't have a smartphone when I got my MiFi account. So terrible science/tech reporting on the topic, awful corporate strategy, but within our lifetime there will be an ag revolution.
posted by sammyo at 2:30 PM on March 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Anyway, these robots have like 20 years tops of usefulness before all easily arable land is ruined by desertification via drought/erosion/warming/etc.
This will not turn out to be true and comments like this are why it's so easily to dismiss hair-on-fire environmental warnings.
posted by lstanley at 3:14 PM on March 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
This will not turn out to be true and comments like this are why it's so easily to dismiss hair-on-fire environmental warnings.
posted by lstanley at 3:14 PM on March 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
All that's missing is a slugbot-inspired module to pluck up now-obsolete farm workers and drop them into its fermentation tank to power itself on the literal corpse of the American agricultural community.
I think if you want to preserve jobs in the agriculture sector, you're about 232 years too late. Replacing human labor with machines has a long history in farming.
Seriously, it's like people are Jonesing to go back to a preindustrial era, when 90% of the population were subsistence farmers...
And I did take my defeatist doom elsewhere: to a piece of marginal land, where I'm a market gardener and small-scale subsistence farmer.
WELP.
posted by happyroach at 3:43 PM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I think if you want to preserve jobs in the agriculture sector, you're about 232 years too late. Replacing human labor with machines has a long history in farming.
Seriously, it's like people are Jonesing to go back to a preindustrial era, when 90% of the population were subsistence farmers...
And I did take my defeatist doom elsewhere: to a piece of marginal land, where I'm a market gardener and small-scale subsistence farmer.
WELP.
posted by happyroach at 3:43 PM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I may not have lived my best life, but by God when I die, they're not going to list the cause of death as "exhaustion", as they did for many of the Civil War-era deaths among farmers.
posted by newdaddy at 5:20 PM on March 9, 2018
posted by newdaddy at 5:20 PM on March 9, 2018
It'd be interesting to see how the rate of technology adoption fits with the decline of workers - will workers get replaced, or will the adoption rate fill an existing and widening gap? And I don't wish anyone a life of manual farm labor, though I don't wish them to lose their jobs, either.
One of the things touched on in the San Diego Tribune article linked by filthy light thief above is the aging of contemporary farm laborers and the fact that there are fewer young workers to replace them. Give women education and access to family planning services and they have fewer children, worldwide. Mexico has been the major source of farm labor for United States agriculture, and family size has declined from an average of 7-8 children in 1960 to 2-3 today. The economy and literacy rates have improved in tandem. There are fewer young people who want or need to do our backbreaking manual labor.
So, unless there's a "youth bulge" somewhere that will provide cheap labor for American agriculture, I think many farmers will turn to machines more and more. I would like to see actual human workers given more money and better treatment, and yes, I am willing to pay more for produce and chicken - but there simply won't be as many available so there will have to be machines to eke out the work of humans. Farm labor isn't fun - there's a reason people flocked to the cities for industrial jobs! Barring absolutely mass, Great-Depression-level unemployment, machines are inevitable.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:31 PM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
One of the things touched on in the San Diego Tribune article linked by filthy light thief above is the aging of contemporary farm laborers and the fact that there are fewer young workers to replace them. Give women education and access to family planning services and they have fewer children, worldwide. Mexico has been the major source of farm labor for United States agriculture, and family size has declined from an average of 7-8 children in 1960 to 2-3 today. The economy and literacy rates have improved in tandem. There are fewer young people who want or need to do our backbreaking manual labor.
So, unless there's a "youth bulge" somewhere that will provide cheap labor for American agriculture, I think many farmers will turn to machines more and more. I would like to see actual human workers given more money and better treatment, and yes, I am willing to pay more for produce and chicken - but there simply won't be as many available so there will have to be machines to eke out the work of humans. Farm labor isn't fun - there's a reason people flocked to the cities for industrial jobs! Barring absolutely mass, Great-Depression-level unemployment, machines are inevitable.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:31 PM on March 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Other than vegetables, isn't most farming in the US already done by machines that are essentially robots? The last big combine harvester I saw had a person sitting in it, but they're pretty much just pointing it and letting it rip AFAICT.
posted by aspersioncast at 1:30 PM on March 11, 2018
posted by aspersioncast at 1:30 PM on March 11, 2018
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