The Next Pandemic
June 16, 2018 1:33 AM   Subscribe

100 years after the 1918 flu pandemic, and outbreaks like SARS and Ebola among others in the last several decades, how ready is the US, and the world, for the next great plague?
posted by blue shadows (30 comments total) 21 users marked this as a favorite
 
There is no doubt that global pandemics are a serious issue, but I think a lot of times the comparison of today to 1918 is exaggerated. The background of WWI provides a crucial context that is missing today: the crowding and unsanitary conditions of war, the economic deprivations of a wartime situation (notably food -- hungry people are less resilient to disease) and the mass movement of not just soldiers but refugees and other migrants. This is also not to mention, of course, the century of medical knowledge and technology that has been acquired since then. So, yeah, it's no coincidence that the most destructive pandemic in modern times was preceded by the most destructive war up until that point.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:11 AM on June 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


I suspect that if there’s ever a nuclear exchange in a future war, we’d have similar problems, too. Mass casualties overwhelming the hospitals, meaning basic health care would grind to a halt. Radiation sickness among the survivors would make them more susceptible to disease. Disruptions to infrastructure would mean access to food and clean water would diminish and dysentery run rampant. Refugees fleeing the affected areas exacerbating the situation in similar ways. Under those conditions, the inability to get reliable flu vaccines would probably make for another major influenza pandemic.
posted by darkstar at 5:27 AM on June 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


the economic deprivations of a wartime situation (notably food -- hungry people are less resilient to disease) and the mass movement of not just soldiers but refugees and other migrants.
Was that a factor in 1918? My understanding is that what made the 1918 pandemic so deadly was not the initial infection, but the autoimmune response, which accounts for the unusual fact that the people most likely to die were healthy young adults. Usually, flu victims are disproportionately very young, old, or already in poor health, but that wasn't the pattern in 1918.

I don't think it makes sense to be alarmist, but I also don't think you should underplay the danger of a pandemic in our current conditions. For one thing, people are vastly more mobile today than they were in 1918. Air travel, for instance, creates possibilities for rapid spread of disease that didn't exist when people moved more slowly.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:28 AM on June 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


For one thing, people are vastly more mobile today than they were in 1918.

Plus, we’re more concentrated in cities. I wouldn’t doubt that WWI exacerbated the Spanish flu pandemic, but I also don’t think it’s such a black swan event. We’re about to be hit with major migrations, famine, drought, and war due to climate change—and that’s if the American government manages to not start a major destabilizing war in the mean time. (Including a civil war in that.)
posted by schadenfrau at 5:33 AM on June 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


For one thing, people are vastly more mobile today than they were in 1918.

Which also helps build up immune system resilience.
posted by chavenet at 6:38 AM on June 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Which also helps build up immune system resilience.

Not against a pandemic. Unless you work at an international airport, I don’t think most of us are regularly exposed to a mix of international diseases (which is why we still might need to get vaccinated before international travel). But a highly communicable disease could be brought to us from elsewhere. With rapid global transit, a serious outbreak can be spread very rapidly in many different directions. People can travel to a new continent before the first onset of symptoms, and can already be out in the city, in close proximity with thousands of people, before anyone identifies them as a disease vector.

I know someone who works for UCSF, and apparently there are researchers there who think this is the biggest risk facing the global population today. Yes, even compared to stuff like climate change, because this could unfold literally overnight.
posted by shapes that haunt the dusk at 7:00 AM on June 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


It did predominantly effect young people but a lot of that was due to loads of troops being all together in overcrowded camps and those camps being being used as clearing houses for different groups of troops heading off to other bases. Measles went through one camp which left the soldiers vulnerable to secondary infections, especially farm boys who were coming in to contact with people from cities for the first time and didn't have the same immunities built up.I can't recall where it was exactly but a base in the west or midwest was infected fairly early on and then huge groups were moved elsewhere in the US and they were just flash points for spreading it all over the nation. I read a very interesting book about it.

I don't doubt it could happen again but that was a unique combination of circumstances with so much more movement of people who prior to the war probably never went more than 20 miles. Nowadays with air travel we know how widely things will spread and each place has to plan accordingly. I think in 1918 they were just particularly vulnerable due to the massive upheaval of the war and the intermingling of people who had previously been in fairly isolated communities and it overwhelmed them, not that the particular strain of flu is worse than what we may face.
posted by kitten magic at 7:02 AM on June 16, 2018


Station Eleven is a good read about what things could be like if we get something that kills super fast.

Ideally I think we'd want something with a very short incubation period so we can isolate people before they fly off and infect another continent. But of course we don't get to choose! And I could isolate myself but how long til I starve?
posted by kitten magic at 7:06 AM on June 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yet the Second World War involved far many more people than the First World War, with equal crowding, worldwide movement of peoples, much heavier involvement of civilian populations, unsanitary conditions, concentration camps, and grotesque conditions of all kinds from China to Russia to Europe and Japan -- but no worldwide pandemic. Why did communicable diseases choose to sit that war out?
posted by Modest House at 7:27 AM on June 16, 2018


Well, certainly they didn't "just sit it out" entirely. Plenty of people still contracted diseases in WWII. But I do have an anecdote from family history which helps explain why it was fewer people than in WWI:

When Pearl Harbor happened, my grandpa was studying for a master's in entomology. He went down to the recruitment office the very next day... and they told him "finish your degree and come back." He did, and then he joined up and was placed in the medical corps. He (and many others like him) then spent WWII working to control disease-carrying insects near military encampments. Apparently my grandma used to say "he fought the war with a FLIT gun."
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:37 AM on June 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


I suspect that the big difference in WWI, 1914-1918, is mass travel. Most people didn't travel very far very often. Immigration happened, and immigrants probably got sick a lot. But they were quarantined, and obviously sick people were not allowed to travel, and not accepted in to a new country. In WWI, lots of soldiers were interacting with soldiers and civilians from all over, then traveling some more. The Flu Pandemic killed young healthy people more than people whose immune system were in poor condition, because the mode of killing was the immune system itself. Maybe that flu train was active someplace and got spread, or maybe it was the unlucky combination of mass travel and a deadly strain that year.
posted by theora55 at 7:56 AM on June 16, 2018


I can't be the only one who hates articles that lists 'myths'. It just seems dumb to have 10 headlines of inaccurate stuff.
posted by theora55 at 7:59 AM on June 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


My father caught this flu when he was 4, but went on for a pretty healthy 92 years. Medical records show the medicine used was whiskey. ** Note to self to stock up.
However, he had 2 uncles (35 and 22), an aunt (37), and a cousin(12) who died within a week. One uncle was in a military camp in the US when he caught it.
The others were just living in a small town. This was in October 1918. (I think that was the 2nd wave).
posted by MtDewd at 7:59 AM on June 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


From the last link:
“Each year, the system gets leaner and leaner,” says Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “It doesn’t take much of a hiccup anymore to challenge it.”
Mike is the former Minnesota State Epidemiologist (yes, we have one) and a colleague of mine in the School of Public Health. He's been sounding this alarm for a couple of decades now. If you want to read more or follow what he's doing, he has a website. Read about the academic program here, through which you can earn an MS, MPH, or PhD. If you're interested, please sign up. We need more folks like Mike.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:06 AM on June 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


I have some mild prepper tendencies, and this is why. The current effort to paint all government as Bad and to cut budgets means that we are not at all prepared. The government should be stockpiling the Tamiflu, not wingnuts (stockpiling Tamiflu. The gov't. stockpiling wingnut is a different thread). It seems prudent to me to have some basics in case I need to shelter in my home for a month. I live alone so part of this is because if I get sick or hurt, it's just as well to have soup and ginger ale in the cupboard. A robust public health system is one of many things I want government to provide.
posted by theora55 at 8:28 AM on June 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


Usually, flu victims are disproportionately very young, old, or already in poor health, but that wasn't the pattern in 1918.

Indeed. One of my odder duties as a parish accountant was to maintain the archives. The records of births and deaths clearly showed a sharp uptick in illness related deaths in the 1918 to 1920 period. The solid majority of them were teens and young adults. And this was in Austin, Texas with a population of around 30,000 and far from the war...
posted by jim in austin at 8:32 AM on June 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


One theory about why young people were hit so hard by the flu after WWI is that older folks had previously contracted a mild form of the flu that was similar enough, in ways other than severity, to provide some immunity.
posted by librosegretti at 8:59 AM on June 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


There is international travel but there is also international communication. When the CDC or WHO make a major announcement communities makes changes pretty rapidly. A lot of community level actions can occur on an ad hoc basis, which does not mean that a pandemic could be devastating but current technology is both a problem and an advantage.

And get your flu shot every year, it's a bit different each year and is not always just right vaccination for that year but it does not "leave your system" and "builds up" over time. So a shot a couple years ago may help next year.
posted by sammyo at 9:04 AM on June 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Same here, theora. I’m also single, and infected with a mild form of prepperitis. My key goal is to be able shelter in my home for a couple of months and have enough food, water, medicine, books, candles, etc. to outwait whatever trouble is brewing.

I have COPD, so the health issue is definitely top of the list of concerns. I just had a bout of the flu a month ago. I get the flu vaccine every year, but that doesn’t make you perfectly immune. I suspect it helped diminish my symptoms, but still, with the COPD, even a moderate case of the flu can have more serious implications.

So, for ten days, I was alone and housebound, dealing with fever, chills, aches, monitoring my pulse-Ox and temp. But I had everything I needed, which not only helped practically, but also psychologically. Even if the electricity and water had shut down, I’d still have been okay.

That’s the kind of thing I prep for: health problems, loss of employment, house fire, bad weather. The kind of things that happen to regular people every day. Not some extraordinary disaster like a zombie apocalypse, or solar EMP, or a cataclysmic pole shift, or whatever.
posted by darkstar at 10:12 AM on June 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


My understanding is that what made the 1918 pandemic so deadly was not the initial infection, but the autoimmune response, which accounts for the unusual fact that the people most likely to die were healthy young adults--ArbitraryAndCapricious

I've heard this too. The article states:
It was in the second wave, from October through December of that year, that the highest death rates were observed

I heard that people exposed to the first wave had immunity systems ready to strike when the second wave hit. But it was the overactive immune system response to this flu that what was causing deaths, so having been exposed the year before only made things worse.

We have a lot more advanced technologies now for quickly creating vaccines, many of which we don't use regularly because they are too expensive, but could be called into action if there was an emergency. But I don't know if any of that technology can address the overactive immune response that the 1918 flu caused.
posted by eye of newt at 10:25 AM on June 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Here's a link describing the overactive immune system response to the 1918 flu.
posted by eye of newt at 10:29 AM on June 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


I was going to mention “cytokine storm”, but I noticed that article that EoN just linked discusses it.

Here’s a another good article specifically discussing the cytokine storm phenomenon in infectious disease.
posted by darkstar at 11:56 AM on June 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


It's reasonable to be concerned about the next pandemic, but let's go out on a limb and say that one will definitely happen in the next 30 years (I don't know the likelihood of this). In that time, what will definitely happen is that nearly a million people in the USA will die of the flu.

We're so often concerned with outliers more than common, normalized threats, but local departments of public health struggle to increase flu vaccination rates - people just seem far less concerned about the viral epidemic that happens every year and are more worried about what might happen.

I can't be the only one who hates articles that lists 'myths'. It just seems dumb to have 10 headlines of inaccurate stuff.

Research shoes that "mythbusting" or myth vs fact information does a bad job at correcting misinformation, because by repeating myths (that people have heard before), it makes people remember the myths better than the facts (that they haven't heard before, or get wrong).

And get your flu shot every year, it's a bit different each year and is not always just right vaccination for that year but it does not "leave your system" and "builds up" over time. So a shot a couple years ago may help next year.

public health professional here currently sorting through heartbreaking stories about people of all ages - but especially children - who died from the flu this past year. while also sorting through a lot of info about why people decide not to get the flu shot. folks, it protects you from the flu. which means that you don't pass it on to more vulnerable people. it's true, it doesn't protect as well as other vaccines, it's true, but if you get the flu shot and still get the flu, it still lowers the severity of the illness.

think about all the times between october and may that you're in public, touching a subway pole, near somebody sneezing on the bus, walking down a crowded street, getting change from a cashier, in a restaurant, getting your hair cut, in a classroom, or touching a doorknob in a public building. think about all these places that are just mass transmission points for this nasty virus that changes every year. try not to pick it up, incubate it, and transfer it to someone else.
posted by entropone at 12:15 PM on June 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


I’ll be honest. I’m scared to get the flu shot again because the last time I got it, I got incredibly sick. Probably the sickest I’ve ever been besides the time I got bronchitis, much sicker than I’ve ever been from the flu itself. I know some adverse reactions are normal, but this was extreme. I’m very scared about what will happen if I get it again, and that’s only compounded with the worry that I’ll be passing the flu on to other people if I don’t get it. We’re not in flu season yet, but I honestly don’t know what to do when flu season comes around again.
posted by shapes that haunt the dusk at 9:59 PM on June 16, 2018


MetaFilter: Nous sommes ensemble.
posted by bryon at 11:10 PM on June 16, 2018


Another threat to our next outbreak: the loss of local newspapers.

Epidemiologists rely on all kinds of data to detect the spread of disease, including reports from local and state agencies and social media. But local newspapers are critical to identifying outbreaks and forecasting their trajectories.

On the map, Majumder saw every county without a local newspaper as a community where health officials and disease researchers could be flying blind.

posted by hapaxes.legomenon at 7:55 AM on June 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


darkstar, last autumn I had a fall that made me frail for several weeks, then I got the flu, Maine had a huge wind storm, and I had no power for 3 days. But I had aspirin, tylenol, ginger ale, soup, and a wood stove. I have oil lamps, but with the flu, they made me feel ill, so flashlights were enough. I have a solar/ crank/ battery radio/ flashlight/ usb charger. I have many books. So it was unpleasant but manageable.

I hadn't had the flu shot yet, because of no health insurance; Maine didn't participate in ACA. In previous years it seemed like there were lots of places to get a free flu shot, but not recently.
posted by theora55 at 7:24 PM on June 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


I became an epidemiologist to try and answer these questions, and I feel like I have no greater insight, only more knowledge.

Right now I work on a whole lot on malaria; it kills vastly more people than any of the big-news dramatic diseases. And mosquitoes and plasmodium are so! much! smarter! than us. Not smarter in the sense of logic, but -- they are optimized to survive and they match us, step by step. Insecticide-treated nets are an amazing tool against malaria; there's evidence that mosquitoes change their biting behavior to bite earlier, rather than at night, when people are sleeping under nets. The mosquitoes develop resistance to our pesticides. It's starting to become more common for the malaria parasite to have a gene deletion that means our tests don't work, and the malaria parasite is also developing resistance to so many drugs. Climate change means their range will probably spread. Dense congregate settings means that environmental interventions are harder to maintain.

We test and treat and study and try and prepare, but what of it? How can we be prepared for an epidemic when so many refuse vaccines for these diseases? That's, to me, a straightforward thing to communicate -- and even smart people with every advantage say no. How can we prepare to communicate changing, evolving, emergency information? In the settings I work in, we do so -- sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. (These people didn't leave quarantine because they are uneducated or foolish. They are scared and in a terrible situation. And we try our best to tell people what's happening, but - my god, you are so sick, and you and your family don't understand. The same thing in the US -- I know a person who was diagnosed with Ebola in the US; I lived several blocks away; the media howled like everyone who took the 1 train was bleeding from the eyes. (We were not.))

The day is short; the work is great.
posted by quadrilaterals at 12:33 AM on June 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Anyone who cannot afford a flu shot: I will get you a flu shot. I would be so happy to get you a flu shot! I will reach out if you need but please, feel free to write me. This offer: good through 2019! Probably as long as Metafilter exists. We are all buds who need to have our flu shots; it's for all of us!
posted by quadrilaterals at 12:36 AM on June 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


I’ll be honest. I’m scared to get the flu shot again because the last time I got it, I got incredibly sick. Probably the sickest I’ve ever been besides the time I got bronchitis, much sicker than I’ve ever been from the flu itself. I know some adverse reactions are normal, but this was extreme. I’m very scared about what will happen if I get it again, and that’s only compounded with the worry that I’ll be passing the flu on to other people if I don’t get it. We’re not in flu season yet, but I honestly don’t know what to do when flu season comes around again.

That sounds really scary, it sucks beyond belief to be so sick that you can't function.

But, the flu shot doesn't contain anything that can make you sick. It can make your immune system work hard for a couple days, and that could make you susceptible to picking up an illness somewhere - the same way that drinking, fatigue, or being out in some bad weather can make you susceptible to picking up an illness.

If you are legit unable to get another flu shot, then it's all the more reason for everyone else to get one - so that people who are unprotected aren't totally vulnerable.
posted by entropone at 8:44 AM on June 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


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