What Socialism Looks Like in 2018
August 28, 2018 5:38 AM   Subscribe

Capitalism, Socialism, and Unfreedom - "Minimal government doesn't remove power from our lives." (via)

The New Socialists - "Why the pitch from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders resonates in 2018."

Are Superstar Firms and Amazon Effects Reshaping the Economy? - "The biggest companies may be influencing things like inflation and wage growth, possibly at the expense of central bankers' power to do so."

How Adam Smith predicted the power of Big Tech - "He understood the harm that overly concentrated markets cause."

also btw...
cf. Czech National Bank: hold my beer! Central Bank Capital as an Instrument of Monetary Policy - "We call it direct support of consumption, and it is a straightforward application of the helicopter drop idea by [Milton] Friedman (1969)."
A helicopter-money-based solution to the lower bound emerges as the optimal one in the traditional New Keynesian model plausibly enriched by behavioral inattention (Gabaix, 2017) and brings about the first-best outcome: no output gap and inflation at the target. We envision that the central bank creates a digital currency and that all citizens are entitled to sign up for a corresponding digital wallet. In normal times, the wallets stay dormant, and the central bank blocks any transactions to the wallets from standard bank accounts to prevent risks to financial stability. In a recession and at the zero lower bound, the central bank starts to send a specified sum of digital currency to the wallets at regular intervals (say, weekly or monthly), later tapering the drops off as the economy recovers and inflation reappears. As far as we know, this is the first paper to describe such a policy option explicitly and in practical detail.
viz. which is already (selectively) true in China :P Banks Are Becoming Obsolete in China—Could the U.S. Be Next? - "The nightmare for the U.S. financial industry is that a major technology company—whether one from China or a U.S. giant such as Amazon or Facebook—might replicate the success of the Chinese mobile payment systems, cutting banks out."
otoh...
  • Partisanship, Parasites, and Polarization - "Are direct-marketing scams destroying the republic? A serious question."
  • Donald Trump's circus act is a sinister distraction - "The president vowed to drain the swamp but has handed the US to the highest bidders."
  • The Emergence and Rise of Postmodern Conservatism
    • Postmodern conservatives increasingly regard strong truth claims about knowledge and morality with active suspicion and even hostility. This is because they regard the intellectual and cultural ‘elites’ who produce knowledge and popularize moral norms as progressive, abstract, and unlikely to sympathize with their concerns. Rather than attempting to formulate alternative claims about knowledge and morality which might have some epistemic and meta-ethical tenability, postmodern conservatives reject even these standards. Instead, they largely appeal to identity as the locus for epistemic and moral validity. This is, in turn, used to rally political support for a given agenda designed to restore that identity to power.
  • When the Supreme Court Lurches Right - "What happens when the Supreme Court becomes significantly more conservative than the public?"
posted by kliuless (27 comments total) 34 users marked this as a favorite
 
We could one day have a national nonprofit digital ecosystem operated as a cooperative, a public utility in which profits are returned to the users in the form of reduced prices.

I suspect that’s from the other, better timeline. We’ll likely get some Amazon service with all the fees of banks but none of the accountability.
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:23 AM on August 28, 2018 [8 favorites]


What a $1,000 Per Month Universal Basic Income

Great, barely covers rent most places, so to eat... wait, is this a diet thread?
posted by sammyo at 6:34 AM on August 28, 2018


The nightmare for the U.S. financial industry is that a major technology company—whether one from China or a U.S. giant such as Amazon or Facebook—might replicate the success of the Chinese mobile payment systems, cutting banks out."

'Be nice to people on your way up because you'll meet them on your way down' the people shouted as they lowered the last banker into the molten steel Terminator 2 style.
posted by Damienmce at 6:38 AM on August 28, 2018 [12 favorites]


Great, barely covers rent most places, so to eat... wait, is this a diet thread?

Tell that to working families. Obvious if you can provide a living wage that's even better. But $12,000/year is nothing to sniff at, at all. That would be a massive percentage increase in income for a large percentage of the population. When I was living on $7,000, $10,000, $13,000 per year it would've made a HUGE difference in every aspect of my life. If you had no income at all it could mean the difference between homelessness and at least getting a room in a multi-roommate household.
posted by Anonymous at 6:48 AM on August 28, 2018


ATTN: New York Times on half the links!
please remember to label
posted by es_de_bah at 7:09 AM on August 28, 2018


Socialize HyperLinks Now!
posted by sammyo at 7:12 AM on August 28, 2018


The other thing to remember about UBI is that, unless you let neoliberal assholes compromise it, the payout is neither means-tested nor exclusive of other benefits programs. You'd expect UBI recipients to also be working and/or receiving disability payments, housing/nutritional assistance, etc.
posted by tobascodagama at 7:13 AM on August 28, 2018 [5 favorites]


What's to stop rent hikes from absorbing UBI and becoming additional wealth transfer from government to private developers and landlords?
posted by kokaku at 7:25 AM on August 28, 2018 [9 favorites]


Banks Are Becoming Obsolete in China—Could the U.S. Be Next?
According to John Engen, writing in American Banker in May 2018, “China processed a whopping $12.8 trillion in mobile payments” in the first ten months of 2017. [...] Payment for everything is handled with a phone and a QR code (a type of barcode). More than 90 percent of Chinese mobile payments are run through Alipay and WeChat Pay, rival platforms backed by the country’s two largest internet conglomerates, Alibaba and Tencent Holdings. [...]
Does anyone have any idea what percentage of Chinese transactions these are? (That is, what the size of the "mobile payment" ecosystem is relative to the size of Chinese economy as a whole?)

(I'm trying to determine whether I should be "terrified" or "panicking". Like, fuck banks, but Amazon and Facebook aren't exactly an improvement.)
posted by ragtag at 7:35 AM on August 28, 2018 [1 favorite]


What's to stop rent hikes from absorbing UBI and becoming additional wealth transfer from government to private developers and landlords?

Probably rent control. Alternately, socialize housing.

It's a long road to walk to a more just society, and it's always going to require telling people who have enough that they have enough, and if they keep insisting they don't have enough, pointing out to your constituency the classes that are offering themselves up as their enemies.
posted by turntraitor at 7:41 AM on August 28, 2018 [9 favorites]


ragtag, in general it's always fair to panic and be terrified. Capitalism has fought a war against people and it won harder than anything has ever won before. Old nasty institutions being replaced by newer nasties with even fewer public controls.

I'm curious about the 15 hour work week link, Financial Times is paywalling me but I'm much more inclined to see a 15 hour work day happening before 15 hour work weeks. Even w\if AI were to start taking jobs and industries en masse, there will always be something our masters will find for us to do all day.
posted by GoblinHoney at 7:49 AM on August 28, 2018 [1 favorite]


From the Financial Times AI article on Keynes prediction of a 15hr work week:

Secondly, though less often mentioned, Keynes’s famous forecast is in a paper he wrote with his tongue firmly in his cheek. He ended it with the hope that economists might one day be as popular as dentists

posted by sammyo at 8:50 AM on August 28, 2018


What's to stop rent hikes from absorbing UBI and becoming additional wealth transfer from government to private developers and landlords?

You realize you could make precisely the same argument about paying wages to workers in the first place, right?

It's almost as though it's the landlords who are the problem.
posted by enn at 8:57 AM on August 28, 2018 [19 favorites]


We already have a method for recapturing accumulated wealth and controlling inflation, it's called taxation.
posted by tobascodagama at 9:06 AM on August 28, 2018 [4 favorites]


It's all about establishing norms.

Canada's right-wing party, whose candidates have questioned the value of immigration, sought to strip people of citizenship and even recently explored ending de solis citizenship is still fully behind single-payer government healthcare with cost controls. Because if they came out against it they'd have a revolt. There's a world where even the far right wants parts of socialism.
posted by GuyZero at 9:10 AM on August 28, 2018


*taps mic* while I don’t cling tightly to anything but the broadest Marxist definition of there being far too much power in far too few hands, I know we are in the edge of a great and sudden change because global capitalism, as it exists, represents clear and present danger to the existence of human civilization.

Change will happen, the question is what kind of change and who is in control.
posted by The Whelk at 9:22 AM on August 28, 2018 [8 favorites]


"What happens when the Supreme Court becomes significantly more conservative than the public?"
My hope: Massive demonstrations, civil disobedience, calls to impeach improperly seated justices (yeah I'm looking at you Neil, ya weasel), a popular movement demanding reform of our moribund Constitution.
My expectation: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:56 AM on August 28, 2018 [3 favorites]


Great, barely covers rent most places, so to eat...

The rich, obviously.

More seriously, I kinda cringe at the notion that what passes for socialism in the US these days is just standard social democracy, but I guess that's still farther to the left than what has been acceptable in the US for quite some time.
posted by asnider at 11:07 AM on August 28, 2018 [3 favorites]


Does anyone have any idea what percentage of Chinese transactions these are? (That is, what the size of the "mobile payment" ecosystem is relative to the size of Chinese economy as a whole?)

Towards an attempt to answer my own question:
  • 52% of Chinese use cash for less 20% of their monthly consumption.¹
  • 74-87% of Chinese (varying by region) find a cashless lifestyle acceptable.¹
  • 42% of retail sales are cashless.²
  • Analysts estimate that China will go completely cashless within five to thirteen years.³
References:
  1. Ipsos: Mobile Payments in China
  2. WalkTheChat: China Mobile Payment Report 2017
  3. Motherboard: China is on Track To Fully Phase Out Cash [NSFW]
Sorry for the semi-derail, but it is terribly alarming to me that all of the English language coverage of this topic appears to be with an angle of "how can we get in on this?" when the question I want to answer is "how do we keep this as far away as possible?"
posted by ragtag at 11:55 AM on August 28, 2018 [2 favorites]


More seriously, I kinda cringe at the notion that what passes for socialism in the US these days is just standard social democracy, but I guess that's still farther to the left than what has been acceptable in the US for quite some time.

Well some of the confusion is that for the short and medium terms, the Dem Soc and the Soc Dems (we need ....more words) in this country share the same goals.
posted by The Whelk at 4:05 PM on August 28, 2018 [3 favorites]


For comparison, what "subversive" looked like in 1954.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:35 PM on August 28, 2018 [2 favorites]


U.N Climate Change Report suggests a phasing out of capitalism in order to save the planet
posted by The Whelk at 8:24 AM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]


> Sorry for the semi-derail, but it is terribly alarming to me that all of the English language coverage of this topic appears to be with an angle of "how can we get in on this?" when the question I want to answer is "how do we keep this as far away as possible?"
This is not a derail. It's not a secret that we're seeing a Great Leap Forward into full cashless society where transactions are under constant surveillance.

The Chinese mobile-payment giant in question, Alipay, is one of the government contractors in its AI-aided surveillance programmes. Alipay is not just a cashless payment processor. It's a huge, self-sustaining ecosystem. It has its own credit reporting agency integrated into the Alibaba online commerce--logistics--finance--cashless POS--user data mining--cloud computing complex. Their socialized, gamified credit score is seen as a precursor to the governmental "Social Credit" surveillance system.

Personally I take it as an ethical stance to resist it as much as I can. I carry cash and pay the local vendors in banknotes and coins. Some of them already see me as the nonconformist troublemaker. When this happens, I respond with warmth and gratitude for their patience and understanding. That's a form of peaceful resistance, I believe.
posted by runcifex at 7:42 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]


The violent and greedy and those who aspire to join them will, like the pharoahs of old, seek to take the best of this world down with them, servants and all with them to the grave. Revolution or no, the death throes of this unsustainable civilization will ruin what could have been a lovely social world. The future is a hot crowded unstable mess of insecurity and downward mobility. We are all our own devils and we made this world our hell. Unite, Organize, Fight Back
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 10:36 PM on August 29, 2018


re: payments...
Warren Buffett is investing in Paytm, his first Indian company

also btw...
Central bank 'equity' debunked
The equity of a corporation is the difference between its assets and liabilities. Under typical accounting practice for central banks, transferring cash directly to households would result in a decline in their accounting equity, because cash is treated as a liability. So one consequence of central bank direct support for consumption is a decline in their accounting equity. Does this matter?

[...]

The answer to this is really clear. Central banks can always limit the effects of base money on inflation by either raising the amount of reserves that banks are required to hold and by using tiered reserves – i.e. having different interest rates on different classes of reserves. Accounting equity is not relevant.
oh and...
An Unprecedented Short History of Fed Independence
Modern Fed independence dates back to the post-World War II period.4 The U.S. government borrowed enormous amounts to finance its participation in the War and then used the Fed to monetize the debt by mandating low yield targets.5 This led to double digit inflation in the late 1940s. Many Fed members, including Chair Marriner Eccles, objected. In 1948, President Truman responded by replacing Eccles.6 Tensions between the Fed and the Treasury were finally resolved by the famous 1951 Accord, which granted the Fed autonomy over monetary policy.7 The Accord allowed the Fed to set rates based on economic considerations rather than using it as a financing tool. But even though independence was the official policy, it was challenged numerous times in the following thirty years. For the most part, governing parties wanted lower rates to stimulate the economy with the not-so-hidden agenda of improving their electoral chances.8
There were some colorful confrontations between politicians and the Fed.

Three weeks after the Accord, William McChesney Martin Jr. took the helm at the Fed. He gained a reputation as a solid inflation fighter, but after a few years he was caught in President Johnson’s crosshairs.9 After Martin cast the deciding vote for a 50bps rate increase, Johnson called him to his Texas ranch. According to reports, Johnson grabbed Martin by the arm and threw him against a wall. “Martin, my boys are dying in Vietnam and you won’t print the money I need” he said.10 Richard Nixon was equally creative in his approach to the Fed.11 During the run-up to the 1972 election, Nixon and his advisor George Shultz pressured Martin’s successor Arthur Burns to increase the monetary supply. Nixon was very blunt about how a stronger economy would help his campaign and referred to the “myth of the autonomous Fed.” In an effort to be even more persuasive, Nixon also leaked false stories about Burns requesting a pay increase.
---
4 Prior to the Fed, Andrew Jackson fought with the President of the Second Bank of the U.S., Nicholas Biddle. Jackson won that fight and the Bank of the U.S. was ultimately dissolved.

5 This was one of the earlier examples of yield curve control. For a summary of the policy and the economic backdrop, see: Bank of Japan: “History and Theories of Yield Curve Control,” 1/11/17.

6 Eccles was able to stay on the Fed, just not as Chairman. Eccles is considered a hero by many economic historians and the main office of the Board of Governors in Washington D.C. carries his name today – the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building.

7 The 1951 Accord, also known as the Treasury-Fed Accord, only came about after President Truman falsely told the press in early 1951 that the FOMC had agreed to support the Treasury’s interest rate peg. Eccles released the FOMC minutes showing otherwise. Source: Federal Reserve History: “Marriner S. Eccles.”

8 Politicians think voters like strong growth.

9 For a summary of Martin’s interaction with President Johnson, see: New York Times: “A President at War With His Fed Chief, 5 Decades Before Trump,” 6/13/17.

10 Oddly, he later reappointed Martin.

11 For a summary of Burns’s interaction with President Nixon, see: Abrams, Burton, A. 2006. "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20 (4): 177-188.
posted by kliuless at 4:11 AM on August 30, 2018


"why @de1ong, and not I, deserves to be the Chief Neoliberal Shill" :P

What Follows the End of History? Identity Politics(!) - "Francis Fukuyama on identity politics, democracy, higher education, and why he quit being a neoconservative."
posted by kliuless at 4:32 AM on August 30, 2018


Francis Fukuyama and Kwame Anthony Appiah take on identity politics - "Two leading thinkers explore the deep roots of populism and resentment in the West."

Paul Krugman vs. George Soros: Debate on Capitalism, Globalization of the Economy (1997) - "I want the Council on Foreign Relations to sponsor a debate on capitalism, with George Soros taking the con and Paul Krugman taking the pro side."
posted by kliuless at 3:47 PM on September 2, 2018


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