It's a coin flip as to if you're now going to achieve the American dream
October 1, 2018 8:29 AM Subscribe
It used to be that people born in the 1940s or '50s were virtually guaranteed to achieve the American dream of earning more than your parents did, Chetty says. But that's not the case anymore. "You see that for kids turning 30 today, who were born in the mid-1980s, only 50 percent of them go on to earn more than their parents did," [Harvard University economist Raj] Chetty says. "It's a coin flip as to whether you are now going to achieve the American dream." Chetty and his colleagues worked with the Census Bureau's Sonya Porter and Maggie Jones to create the The Opportunity Atlas ... merging U.S. Census Bureau data with data from the Internal Revenue Service. (Via NPR)
Though this website just debuted today, the team behind it has been working with the data to help Charlotte, North Carolina move up from it's status as "dead last out of 50 cities (PDF) at providing upward mobility for low-income kids," as reported by NPR.
Though this website just debuted today, the team behind it has been working with the data to help Charlotte, North Carolina move up from it's status as "dead last out of 50 cities (PDF) at providing upward mobility for low-income kids," as reported by NPR.
Dr. Ophelia Garmon-Brown, a prominent Charlotte resident, wasn't surprised the city had done poorly.More on efforts in Charlotte in the article.
"I've been a physician for a lot of years, worked with people who live in poverty, so I saw it," she says. But Garmon-Brown says she was among those who were shocked that Charlotte had come in dead last.
The news came as a loud wake-up call.
And Charlotte responded, Garmon-Brown says. She was drafted to co-chair a task force, formed by the Foundation For The Carolinas, to develop a plan to attack the problem.
The task force's report (PDF) identified early childhood development, college and career readiness, family stability and strong social networks as key factors that enhance upward mobility. It singled out segregation as a key obstacle. And now, Charlotte officials are learning to use the Opportunity Atlas to effectively target some remedies, things like pre-K programs and affordable housing.
Frank Barnes, the chief equity officer for Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, says the Opportunity Atlas will be very helpful in shaping future decisions.
There's very little margin for error anymore. It can take the rest of your productive life to recover from one setback
posted by The Underpants Monster at 9:02 AM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]
posted by The Underpants Monster at 9:02 AM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]
America's extremely poor (to put it lightly) understanding of the cycle of poverty endlessly depresses me. I worked at a non-profit in Austin that focused on breaking it, but it was a never ending battle. Austin prides itself on being liberal, but then you realize it's just as segregated and limiting as every other place.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 9:08 AM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 9:08 AM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]
I can tell you that the American Dream eluded me due to disability
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 9:25 AM on October 1, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 9:25 AM on October 1, 2018 [16 favorites]
A contributing factor to this is the over-emphasis on higher education. A college degree ended up being used as a selection criteria for job applicants, in many cases simply to get the number of applications to review down to a manageable level. Didn't matter if the job actually required that level of knowledge, it was all about sorting the hundred and fifty job applications down to a manageable twenty.
Up until about the early-mid 1970s, people could work their way up in the company they worked for as they acquired knowledge and skills related to the company. I have an uncle with an eighth-grade education who worked himself up to an executive position at 3M based on what he knew and learned on the job. A woman who started out as a cashier at a local grocery store chain worked her way up and now owns the chain. Those opportunities aren't offered anymore.
Demanding college degrees even for jobs that clearly don't require them is a major barrier for those who can't afford to take on the debt of a college education, which is basically everyone from a non-1% family. The ones who took on the debt will be paying it off for most of their working career, but at least they got to maintain their place on the ladder, maybe move up a step or two. The very poorest don't have a chance.
posted by Lunaloon at 9:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]
Up until about the early-mid 1970s, people could work their way up in the company they worked for as they acquired knowledge and skills related to the company. I have an uncle with an eighth-grade education who worked himself up to an executive position at 3M based on what he knew and learned on the job. A woman who started out as a cashier at a local grocery store chain worked her way up and now owns the chain. Those opportunities aren't offered anymore.
Demanding college degrees even for jobs that clearly don't require them is a major barrier for those who can't afford to take on the debt of a college education, which is basically everyone from a non-1% family. The ones who took on the debt will be paying it off for most of their working career, but at least they got to maintain their place on the ladder, maybe move up a step or two. The very poorest don't have a chance.
posted by Lunaloon at 9:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]
Moved to Opportunity: The Long Run Effects of Public Housing Demolition on Children
I study public housing demolitions in Chicago, which forced low-income households to relocate to less disadvantaged neighborhoods using housing vouchers. Specifically, I compare young adult outcomes of displaced children to their peers who lived in nearby public housing that was not demolished. Displaced children are more likely to be employed and earn more in young adulthood. I also find that displaced children have fewer violent crime arrests. Children displaced at young ages have lower high school dropout rates.
Via Marginal Revolution
The takeaway overall is segregation effects on outcomes.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:51 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
I study public housing demolitions in Chicago, which forced low-income households to relocate to less disadvantaged neighborhoods using housing vouchers. Specifically, I compare young adult outcomes of displaced children to their peers who lived in nearby public housing that was not demolished. Displaced children are more likely to be employed and earn more in young adulthood. I also find that displaced children have fewer violent crime arrests. Children displaced at young ages have lower high school dropout rates.
Via Marginal Revolution
The takeaway overall is segregation effects on outcomes.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:51 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
Demanding college degrees even for jobs that clearly don't require them is a major barrier for those who can't afford to take on the debt of a college education, which is basically everyone from a non-1% family.
Only 1/3 of the people in the US even have a college degree, so I'm not sure this is true, or if it is it's an effect, not a cause, with the 'cause' being something more like automation/consolidation through mergers/job stratification among an even higher percentage than college graduates/number of good jobs is so low that marginal jobs are being taken by college graduates.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:57 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
Only 1/3 of the people in the US even have a college degree, so I'm not sure this is true, or if it is it's an effect, not a cause, with the 'cause' being something more like automation/consolidation through mergers/job stratification among an even higher percentage than college graduates/number of good jobs is so low that marginal jobs are being taken by college graduates.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:57 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
There's very little margin for error anymore. It can take the rest of your productive life to recover from one setback
Why Don't You Just Work Almost 20 Years With Nearly Nothing Going Wrong (previously on this topic)
posted by filthy light thief at 9:58 AM on October 1, 2018 [18 favorites]
Why Don't You Just Work Almost 20 Years With Nearly Nothing Going Wrong (previously on this topic)
Escaping Poverty Requires Almost 20 Years With Nearly Nothing Going Wrong: A lot of factors have contributed to American inequality: slavery, economic policy, technological change, the power of lobbying, globalization, and so on. In their wake, what’s left?According to US bankruptcy court statistics, more than 1.5 million people file for bankruptcy every year. Most significantly, nearly 97 percent of bankruptcy filings are made by individuals, not by businesses. Here are the top 10 reasons why people go bankrupt:
- Medical Expenses
- Reduced Income
- Job Loss
- Credit Debt
- Divorce
- Unexpected Expenses
- Student Loans
- Utility Payments
- Foreclosure
- Bad Budgeting/Overspending
posted by filthy light thief at 9:58 AM on October 1, 2018 [18 favorites]
Universal Healthcare would knock off #1 for most poeple, and Tuition-Free College would address #7 for many, and Universal Basic Income would probably address a significant chunk of the rest. But that's me, Johnny Socialist asking for another government handout the government to address decades of corporate pillaging at the cost of the health of the general public.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:01 AM on October 1, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by filthy light thief at 10:01 AM on October 1, 2018 [45 favorites]
I like that the formal definition of the American Dream is beating your parents.
This is, of course, the "Allentown principle" (from the Billy Joel song of that name):
"Every child has a pretty good shot
To get at least as far as their old man got
But something happened on the way to that place
They threw an American flag in our face."
(Lyrics from Google, but I changed the last word from "place" to "face", because I know that's how it is in the song. There are probably other errors in transcription.)
posted by madcaptenor at 10:16 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
This is, of course, the "Allentown principle" (from the Billy Joel song of that name):
"Every child has a pretty good shot
To get at least as far as their old man got
But something happened on the way to that place
They threw an American flag in our face."
(Lyrics from Google, but I changed the last word from "place" to "face", because I know that's how it is in the song. There are probably other errors in transcription.)
posted by madcaptenor at 10:16 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
"Demanding college degrees even for jobs that clearly don't require them is a major barrier for those who can't afford to take on the debt of a college education, which is basically everyone from a non-1% family."
I was under the impression that this was the entire point.
posted by kevinbelt at 10:19 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
I was under the impression that this was the entire point.
posted by kevinbelt at 10:19 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
There will always be a cycle of poverty as long as there's a cycle of wealth. It's obviously worthwhile to give individuals as many opportunities to get better jobs, better housing, any medical care at all, etc, because you have to help the people who are in front of you. But in the aggregate there will never not be a cycle of poverty because the cycle of poverty is what sustains the cycle of wealth.
And in fact, the "American Dream" of doing better than your parents (that's not how I learned it - I thought the American Dream was having a nice house in a pleasant place and having economic security) is part of the cycle of poverty, because it's based on the belief in infinite expansion. And you can't have that kind of belief without trampling people down, cheap labor, screwing over the vulnerable, etc.
Jeff Bezo's kids - hopefully! - will not achieve the "American Dream" of having more than he has. I don't really think I need to do better than my parents - my parents did fine. They had decent jobs that paid a middle class wage, we had a house, we had no long periods of unemployment, we had all reasonable needs met to a reasonable standard, they were able to retire without a non-work-related (ie, wearing cheaper clothes but then not needing to dress up for work, having only one car but then not needing to have two commutes) drop in living conditions. If everyone could live at the level that my family did, this planet would be a paradise.
posted by Frowner at 10:55 AM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]
And in fact, the "American Dream" of doing better than your parents (that's not how I learned it - I thought the American Dream was having a nice house in a pleasant place and having economic security) is part of the cycle of poverty, because it's based on the belief in infinite expansion. And you can't have that kind of belief without trampling people down, cheap labor, screwing over the vulnerable, etc.
Jeff Bezo's kids - hopefully! - will not achieve the "American Dream" of having more than he has. I don't really think I need to do better than my parents - my parents did fine. They had decent jobs that paid a middle class wage, we had a house, we had no long periods of unemployment, we had all reasonable needs met to a reasonable standard, they were able to retire without a non-work-related (ie, wearing cheaper clothes but then not needing to dress up for work, having only one car but then not needing to have two commutes) drop in living conditions. If everyone could live at the level that my family did, this planet would be a paradise.
posted by Frowner at 10:55 AM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]
There's very little margin for error anymore.
It depends. For those in environments with social, academic, and financial resources, there's plenty of margin of error. Maybe not in the "get in to an Ivy and become a I-banker" sense, but in the "graduate from college, get married, and get a job that will keep you in the upper-middle class" sense. For those without those resources, it's much harder to recover from a misstep, like drug use, pregnancy, or legal troubles (and the odds of their facing those missteps is a lot higher to begin with).
But everyone should have an opportunity to recover from mistakes.
Roland G. Fryer put it best. He grew up disadvantaged in many ways, and many of his relatives ended up in prison, but he become an academic superstar. Some might say that, hey, this guy beat the odds, so what's the problem? He responds: "...how do you create structures so that people don’t just beat the odds, but so that you change the damn odds."
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:55 AM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]
It depends. For those in environments with social, academic, and financial resources, there's plenty of margin of error. Maybe not in the "get in to an Ivy and become a I-banker" sense, but in the "graduate from college, get married, and get a job that will keep you in the upper-middle class" sense. For those without those resources, it's much harder to recover from a misstep, like drug use, pregnancy, or legal troubles (and the odds of their facing those missteps is a lot higher to begin with).
But everyone should have an opportunity to recover from mistakes.
Roland G. Fryer put it best. He grew up disadvantaged in many ways, and many of his relatives ended up in prison, but he become an academic superstar. Some might say that, hey, this guy beat the odds, so what's the problem? He responds: "...how do you create structures so that people don’t just beat the odds, but so that you change the damn odds."
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:55 AM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]
Only 1/3 of the people in the US even have a college degree
A third of people in the US have a college degree, but I suspect that's a bigger proportion of people actively seeking work in the job market than across the population as a whole.
Which isn't to say that automation, consolidation, and offshoring aren't affecting the number of available living-wage jobs overall—reducing the size of the pie, so to speak—but it's also simultaneously true that "bachelors degree {y/n}" is being used as a first-cut filter for a ton of jobs, and not having a college degree will adversely impact your lifetime earning potential in a really terrible way.
Basically, higher ed has gotten itself positioned as the dominant gatekeeper between the hot/dirty/dangerous or emotionally laborious and poorly-paid jobs, and everything else—particularly the jobs you can do sitting in a nice office without wrecking your body. If you're not willing to take on a shitload of debt and buy yourself a college degree, many of those jobs might as well not exist. And while the remainder of jobs aren't all terrible (I've occasionally run into software developers without a college degree, but they're increasingly rare), a whole lot of them are.
The pie is getting smaller, and also you get a much smaller slice without a degree.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:59 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]
A third of people in the US have a college degree, but I suspect that's a bigger proportion of people actively seeking work in the job market than across the population as a whole.
Which isn't to say that automation, consolidation, and offshoring aren't affecting the number of available living-wage jobs overall—reducing the size of the pie, so to speak—but it's also simultaneously true that "bachelors degree {y/n}" is being used as a first-cut filter for a ton of jobs, and not having a college degree will adversely impact your lifetime earning potential in a really terrible way.
Basically, higher ed has gotten itself positioned as the dominant gatekeeper between the hot/dirty/dangerous or emotionally laborious and poorly-paid jobs, and everything else—particularly the jobs you can do sitting in a nice office without wrecking your body. If you're not willing to take on a shitload of debt and buy yourself a college degree, many of those jobs might as well not exist. And while the remainder of jobs aren't all terrible (I've occasionally run into software developers without a college degree, but they're increasingly rare), a whole lot of them are.
The pie is getting smaller, and also you get a much smaller slice without a degree.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:59 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]
Also, the pie is essentially made out of people.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 11:15 AM on October 1, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 11:15 AM on October 1, 2018 [15 favorites]
Basically, higher ed has gotten itself positioned as the dominant gatekeeper between the hot/dirty/dangerous or emotionally laborious and poorly-paid jobs, and everything else—particularly the jobs you can do sitting in a nice office without wrecking your body.
That's what higher ed has always been. Fine it wasn't 'college' it was guilds. Same difference, minus a very short period where millions of working-age males were killed.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:20 AM on October 1, 2018
That's what higher ed has always been. Fine it wasn't 'college' it was guilds. Same difference, minus a very short period where millions of working-age males were killed.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:20 AM on October 1, 2018
And to make the point more clearly: If too many college grads is a problem (jobs that don't require degrees are going to the degreed) then raising the price of college and increasing exclusivity is one easy way (a bad way) to deal with it, just like closing the borders is one easy way (a bad way) to deal with falling incomes.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:28 AM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:28 AM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
SOYLENT PIE IS MADE OF PEOPLE
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
my mom and I are making the exact same amount right now, I feel left out somehow
posted by numaner at 12:02 PM on October 1, 2018
posted by numaner at 12:02 PM on October 1, 2018
fuck the american dream. I want the soviet dream. I don't want to do better than my parents. I don't even want a nice suburban house with a yard. All I want is a place to live that's spartan but where I don't have to worry about some fucking landlord kicking me out, a job that doesn't pay much or mean much but that I can blow off half the time without consequence, and some friends I can tell cynical jokes with while we wait in line for bread.
1: though tbf my particular parents were mean-minded lumpenproletariats with small and unpleasant lives, so there's really no way I can do much worse.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:39 PM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]
1: though tbf my particular parents were mean-minded lumpenproletariats with small and unpleasant lives, so there's really no way I can do much worse.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:39 PM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]
MetaFilter: some friends to tell cynical jokes with while waiting in line for bread
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:56 PM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:56 PM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]
Wait, there's a line for bread? What the hell line have I been standing in?!
posted by GoblinHoney at 1:59 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 1:59 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]
That's the line for admittance to other lines.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 2:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 2:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]
I guess in theory I make more than my parents ever did, although once you factor in inflation and cost of living (I chose to settle in Canada’s most or second-most expensive city for housing) I doubt I really do. Their pleasant middle-class house and yard would cost well over a million dollars in Toronto. Maybe over two million, depending on the area of town....at any rate, it might as well be a billion in terms of my ability to afford a house here.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]
don't forget to get a ticket for the line you're seeking admittance to before you get into the line for admittance to other lines, otherwise when you get to the front you'll have to go all the way back to the start.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 2:41 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 2:41 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
You'll need to apply for those tickets using form XLS2010. Copies of form XLS2010 are available in lines L-Z in the Orange Zone. You may submit your completed form XLS2010 in lines B-G in the Blue Zone.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 2:51 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 2:51 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]
Listen IRFH, don't start up with your Orange Zone shit again.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:00 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 3:00 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
if you don't want to go to the orange zone to pick up the forms for tickets to wait in the line for waiting in other lines, you could always try to buy off the black market... but the lines there are atrocious.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 3:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 3:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]
Realistically, assuming you've somehow got $300,000 in cash for a down-payment, what income do you need for a million dollar mortgage? Because that's what it seems the average mortgage is going to be in Seattle, soon. That's a $6,000 per month, payment, isn't it? Are there really hundreds of thousands of households making $300K + per year in the area?
I make less money each year for more technically-involved work. I am confident my father, making roughly 50K a year in the late 1970s, made so much more in constant dollars than I do that it's probably approaching "orders of magnitude" more. Plus the world didn't yet have tech bros.
How did I end up longing for the 1970s?
posted by maxwelton at 3:18 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]
I make less money each year for more technically-involved work. I am confident my father, making roughly 50K a year in the late 1970s, made so much more in constant dollars than I do that it's probably approaching "orders of magnitude" more. Plus the world didn't yet have tech bros.
How did I end up longing for the 1970s?
posted by maxwelton at 3:18 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]
Are there really hundreds of thousands of households making $300K + per year in the area?
I wonder this CONSTANTLY. I mean I do know a few folks who make that much -- but none of them are buying million dollar homes, because that would actually be an uncomfortable stretch for them. They tend to buy houses valued at about half that much.
Which means a lot of the people buying these million dollar homes are either real irresponsible (definitely possible) or making *way more* than 300K per year.
Any freestanding house in my neighborhood costs nearly, or north of, 1 million dollars. It's not the most expensive neighborhood around **by far**.
What the hell are all of these peoples' jobs?!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 3:30 PM on October 1, 2018 [10 favorites]
I wonder this CONSTANTLY. I mean I do know a few folks who make that much -- but none of them are buying million dollar homes, because that would actually be an uncomfortable stretch for them. They tend to buy houses valued at about half that much.
Which means a lot of the people buying these million dollar homes are either real irresponsible (definitely possible) or making *way more* than 300K per year.
Any freestanding house in my neighborhood costs nearly, or north of, 1 million dollars. It's not the most expensive neighborhood around **by far**.
What the hell are all of these peoples' jobs?!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 3:30 PM on October 1, 2018 [10 favorites]
Are there really hundreds of thousands of households making $300K + per year in the area?
I'm 34 and living in LA. My wife and I wanted to buy a house. The absolutely minimum for anything worth a damn is 700k. Among our peer group the only way people are buying houses is A- A family member dies or B- A family member given them the money, or the down payment. I literally can't name a single person who has paid for a home with their own dollars. It's just impossible.
posted by GilloD at 3:35 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
I'm 34 and living in LA. My wife and I wanted to buy a house. The absolutely minimum for anything worth a damn is 700k. Among our peer group the only way people are buying houses is A- A family member dies or B- A family member given them the money, or the down payment. I literally can't name a single person who has paid for a home with their own dollars. It's just impossible.
posted by GilloD at 3:35 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
One fact seldom mentioned in discussions about college degrees is that having one ... even working on getting one ... can get you refused for jobs. Just mentioning that on an application for a labor job will got me (quite pre-millenial) turned down ... several times, in fact ... if they were looking for someone for long-term employment. It can be an anti-qualification
Yes, it may be to your benefit to conceal your hard-earned degree (even more so for an advanced degree) in some cases. Particularly if you need a roof over your head and food to eat. It's assumed (or was, anyway) that you will split as soon as you can. Even more so today, when it's likely that your debt burden will force you to seek something 'less plebian'.
posted by Twang at 4:49 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
Yes, it may be to your benefit to conceal your hard-earned degree (even more so for an advanced degree) in some cases. Particularly if you need a roof over your head and food to eat. It's assumed (or was, anyway) that you will split as soon as you can. Even more so today, when it's likely that your debt burden will force you to seek something 'less plebian'.
posted by Twang at 4:49 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]
It can be an anti-qualification
My daughter graduated from college in May with a 4.0 and all the leadership, extra curricular stuff they tell you to do to impress the corporate recruiters. She left all that stuff off her applications when she was applying to retail jobs for something to do while she looked for a career job. She got a jobs at Lowe's then got handed a last minute opportunity to go back to grad school, which she took.
posted by COD at 5:20 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
My daughter graduated from college in May with a 4.0 and all the leadership, extra curricular stuff they tell you to do to impress the corporate recruiters. She left all that stuff off her applications when she was applying to retail jobs for something to do while she looked for a career job. She got a jobs at Lowe's then got handed a last minute opportunity to go back to grad school, which she took.
posted by COD at 5:20 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
The pie is getting smaller, and also you get a much smaller slice without a degree.
Actually the pie is growing if that's a metaphor for the economy. It's just that the ones that get the slices are letting fewer crumbs fall from the table.
posted by Borborygmus at 5:33 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
Actually the pie is growing if that's a metaphor for the economy. It's just that the ones that get the slices are letting fewer crumbs fall from the table.
posted by Borborygmus at 5:33 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
It was more of an employment pie; i.e. the number of jobs available in the economy which would allow a person to live a reasonable, independent life and possibly care for a dependent. That number has, I think, gone down over time due to offshoring/globalization and automation, at least adjusted for population growth.
Total economic output and average pay has gone up, of course, but it's captured by a very small number of people.
posted by Kadin2048 at 6:45 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
Total economic output and average pay has gone up, of course, but it's captured by a very small number of people.
posted by Kadin2048 at 6:45 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]
Higher education can't, won't be salvation for enough people. My group at my workplace, which does technical work, hired two PhDs and someone with 20 years of experience for the previous three entry-level job openings. I could probably train a reasonably bright high school student to do the entry-level work.
After a mere two years working there (granted, got promoted up a level after the first year), it feels like I couldn't get my first job there any more.
We should be hiring kids fresh out of college for those jobs. I have been out of college for almost 10 years. I'm the youngest person in my group. The group that hires seasonal people for their technical work hires people in their 30s-40s on the regular, and most of them have no shot at a permanent job.
Grad school is the new college, and 10 years experience is the new entry level.
There is now a glut of overqualified people in a variety of fields.
Unless we make overtime pay mandatory for everybody, right now, or everybody unionizes, or we institute some kind of universal income or support, this opportunity problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I'm prepared to accept that my situation is a little extreme, but I'm also not sure it's uncommon.
And yet, the last reasonable attempt to expand overtime requirements got conservative-judicially reviewed right out.
And we still have no plan for even the truckers who are about to lose their jobs to autonomous vehicles, let alone all the service industries who support them, etc.
We're running out of time for reasonable solutions to these problems before they are forcibly solved by unrest and uglier "solutions".
posted by Strudel at 7:52 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
After a mere two years working there (granted, got promoted up a level after the first year), it feels like I couldn't get my first job there any more.
We should be hiring kids fresh out of college for those jobs. I have been out of college for almost 10 years. I'm the youngest person in my group. The group that hires seasonal people for their technical work hires people in their 30s-40s on the regular, and most of them have no shot at a permanent job.
Grad school is the new college, and 10 years experience is the new entry level.
There is now a glut of overqualified people in a variety of fields.
Unless we make overtime pay mandatory for everybody, right now, or everybody unionizes, or we institute some kind of universal income or support, this opportunity problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I'm prepared to accept that my situation is a little extreme, but I'm also not sure it's uncommon.
And yet, the last reasonable attempt to expand overtime requirements got conservative-judicially reviewed right out.
And we still have no plan for even the truckers who are about to lose their jobs to autonomous vehicles, let alone all the service industries who support them, etc.
We're running out of time for reasonable solutions to these problems before they are forcibly solved by unrest and uglier "solutions".
posted by Strudel at 7:52 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]
> Among our peer group the only way people are buying houses is A- A family member dies or B- A family member given them the money, or the down payment. I literally can't name a single person who has paid for a home with their own dollars. It's just impossible.
I've made this comment in other, similar threads, but it feels like the housing market is coasting along on the Boomers' fumes (or as it gets called here in Toronto, the Bank of Mom and Dad). I have no idea what will happen when that money runs out.
My earlier comment might have sounded more bitter than I intended. My wife and I have a great life together; we've traveled the world, we eat well both at home and out, we enjoy the various cultural events and attractions that Toronto boasts, a few years ago my wife went back to school to do a PhD, and I'm still saving a respectable chunk of cash for retirement. But very little of this would be possible if we had children, a mortgage in Toronto and/or were even paying the what the average rent is here (we've been renting the same place for 17 years and our landlord is unbelievably generous). I suspect there are a lot of people here who are superficially prosperous but living paycheque to paycheque and/or in a ton of debt.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:13 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]
I've made this comment in other, similar threads, but it feels like the housing market is coasting along on the Boomers' fumes (or as it gets called here in Toronto, the Bank of Mom and Dad). I have no idea what will happen when that money runs out.
My earlier comment might have sounded more bitter than I intended. My wife and I have a great life together; we've traveled the world, we eat well both at home and out, we enjoy the various cultural events and attractions that Toronto boasts, a few years ago my wife went back to school to do a PhD, and I'm still saving a respectable chunk of cash for retirement. But very little of this would be possible if we had children, a mortgage in Toronto and/or were even paying the what the average rent is here (we've been renting the same place for 17 years and our landlord is unbelievably generous). I suspect there are a lot of people here who are superficially prosperous but living paycheque to paycheque and/or in a ton of debt.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:13 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]
The problem is not that there are not enough resources to take care of everyone: the problem is that the rich cannot be satisfied. They have paid off elected officials to extract as much money to them as possible.
posted by corvikate at 7:02 AM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by corvikate at 7:02 AM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]
Are there really hundreds of thousands of households making $300K + per year in the area?
This is easily explained by the idea that not everyone that buys a home is a first-time buyer. They are trading equity in some other place for the extreme income differential and real-estate price appreciation differential that boom towns offer. Even locals do this.
My LA relatives (for example) sold their $350k condo and moved into a $550k home, and their mortgage is nearly the same.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:18 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
This is easily explained by the idea that not everyone that buys a home is a first-time buyer. They are trading equity in some other place for the extreme income differential and real-estate price appreciation differential that boom towns offer. Even locals do this.
My LA relatives (for example) sold their $350k condo and moved into a $550k home, and their mortgage is nearly the same.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:18 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
Are there really hundreds of thousands of households making $300K + per year in the area?
This is easily explained by the idea that not everyone that buys a home is a first-time buyer.
True, plus only a small percentage of houses are owned by people who bought them recently, so in places where prices have been going up, many of the long-time owners would not have been able to afford their current house on their income.
In dollar terms, their (unrealized) income from the housing price growth allows them to afford to own their now-pricier home. In real world terms, they're just living in the same home and likely paying the same (relatively low) mortgage.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:45 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
This is easily explained by the idea that not everyone that buys a home is a first-time buyer.
True, plus only a small percentage of houses are owned by people who bought them recently, so in places where prices have been going up, many of the long-time owners would not have been able to afford their current house on their income.
In dollar terms, their (unrealized) income from the housing price growth allows them to afford to own their now-pricier home. In real world terms, they're just living in the same home and likely paying the same (relatively low) mortgage.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:45 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
It used to be that people born in the 1940s or '50s were virtually guaranteed to achieve the American dream of earning more than your parents did
1952 baby here. Please take it from me that this bit of received wisdom is the result of insular reporting by and for those who benefited. It comes with quite a few asterisks. To the extent that it was true, it was so only for a fraction of the population. I can only wish I'd been in it.
posted by Weftage at 9:09 AM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]
1952 baby here. Please take it from me that this bit of received wisdom is the result of insular reporting by and for those who benefited. It comes with quite a few asterisks. To the extent that it was true, it was so only for a fraction of the population. I can only wish I'd been in it.
posted by Weftage at 9:09 AM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]
True, plus only a small percentage of houses are owned by people who bought them recently, so in places where prices have been going up, many of the long-time owners would not have been able to afford their current house on their income.
That's also true, but that's kind of an abstraction as those people also paid the market price (unless they got some kind of shady insider deal) and whether their home rose or fell is due to whims of history and economics operating at a level and scale of control higher than most have any decisions on.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:32 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
That's also true, but that's kind of an abstraction as those people also paid the market price (unless they got some kind of shady insider deal) and whether their home rose or fell is due to whims of history and economics operating at a level and scale of control higher than most have any decisions on.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:32 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]
As an European transplant in the US I have always told my kids that they need to go to college in Europe. At first that was a kind of a joke based on the price differential. As the oldest kid is now in middle school I have now been refining my argument for this. Most kids should not be asked to make a $1/4M+ investment decision at the age of 18. Few kids might know their passion for life and will execute on that, but those that need little more time should not be penalized with outsized financial obligation for the next 30 years.
Schools in Europe don't babysit the students, but at the same time spending few years as a ski bum would not be the end of the world. My current advice to my kids is to be poor and make as many mistakes as they can in their early twenties, but limit the loans.
posted by zeikka at 12:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]
Schools in Europe don't babysit the students, but at the same time spending few years as a ski bum would not be the end of the world. My current advice to my kids is to be poor and make as many mistakes as they can in their early twenties, but limit the loans.
posted by zeikka at 12:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]
Zeikka, I've told my son very similar things. He has an aptitude for languages, and I've been pushing for European universities. (To be fair, if I could leave the US for Europe myself, I would, but I'm old enough that most countries won't consider legal immigration.)
My son and I were talking about this study, and according to him, even amongst his rotc, AP cohort, most of them don't expect to go to college. They've done the math, and realize that their parents don't have a spare six figures lying around, and even for those lucky enough to have parents that could save, those college funds are only going to pay for a year or two at a state university. (In Texas, they deregulated the universities, and mandated university housing and so now a year at UT can cost up to $40,000...which is obscene. )
I want my kid to be able to experience college, but the way I could, where the cost was so low, I explored all sorts of academic arenas where I had no intention of staying, but where I thought I might learn something interesting. Epic Poetry of Norse Mythology? Yes, please! History of the IndoEuropean language tree? But of course! Physics for the mathematically undereducated? Absolutely!
I learned so much studying areas that had nothing to do with a career. Hell, nothing I studied had much to do with my actual career, but I feel like having a broad overview of many many things gave me the ability to be open-minded, to explore new ideas for truth, to parse what people were actually saying vs the words they might be using, the courage to travel around the world by myself. I mean, I loved the university experience, but if I were my age, and still paying off my loans, 30 years later, I don't think I'd feel the same way.
I am terribly worried about my son's future, because I just don't know how to keep him off the debtor's wheel.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:04 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]
My son and I were talking about this study, and according to him, even amongst his rotc, AP cohort, most of them don't expect to go to college. They've done the math, and realize that their parents don't have a spare six figures lying around, and even for those lucky enough to have parents that could save, those college funds are only going to pay for a year or two at a state university. (In Texas, they deregulated the universities, and mandated university housing and so now a year at UT can cost up to $40,000...which is obscene. )
I want my kid to be able to experience college, but the way I could, where the cost was so low, I explored all sorts of academic arenas where I had no intention of staying, but where I thought I might learn something interesting. Epic Poetry of Norse Mythology? Yes, please! History of the IndoEuropean language tree? But of course! Physics for the mathematically undereducated? Absolutely!
I learned so much studying areas that had nothing to do with a career. Hell, nothing I studied had much to do with my actual career, but I feel like having a broad overview of many many things gave me the ability to be open-minded, to explore new ideas for truth, to parse what people were actually saying vs the words they might be using, the courage to travel around the world by myself. I mean, I loved the university experience, but if I were my age, and still paying off my loans, 30 years later, I don't think I'd feel the same way.
I am terribly worried about my son's future, because I just don't know how to keep him off the debtor's wheel.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:04 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]
SecretAgentSockpuppet – "I am terribly worried about my son's future, because I just don't know how to keep him off the debtor's wheel."
Maybe my perspective is different on this as my kids have European passports and they proudly say that they are Finnish in addition to being Americans, but there are lot of places to study in Europe in English. Certainly not free, but not requiring lifetime servitude either. And just to be clear the idiots in question can't talk, write or read Finnish to save their lives.
posted by zeikka at 2:13 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]
Maybe my perspective is different on this as my kids have European passports and they proudly say that they are Finnish in addition to being Americans, but there are lot of places to study in Europe in English. Certainly not free, but not requiring lifetime servitude either. And just to be clear the idiots in question can't talk, write or read Finnish to save their lives.
posted by zeikka at 2:13 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]
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