ANGER IS AN ENERGY
November 5, 2018 9:00 PM   Subscribe

Today is Election Day in the United States.

In the wake of the most disastrous election in United States history, and after nearly two years of unfettered corruption and a dangerous trend towards strongman rule (see Metafilter potus45 threads passim), the American people now have their last best chance to halt Trump's incipient fascism by capturing at least one chamber of Congress. Democrats' chances look strong in the House, as well in the state races, but dicey in the Senate.

***
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Buoyed by historically low presidential approval ratings, successful 2017 state elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and a string of surprise victories in special elections, the Democrats are feeling good (well, as good as Dems ever feel) about getting at least the net 23 pick-ups they need to take control of the House. Contesting far more seats than usual, holding an substantial 8.5 point advantage on the generic ballot average, and with eye-popping amounts of small dollar donations flowing in, the Democrats may have what it takes to finally wash over the gerrymandering wall the GOP erected in 2010.

What do the prognosticators say? Unlike in some past years, they're broadly in agreement - Democrats are likely to get maybe about 35 seats. The GOP still has a "systematic polling error" chance to hang on to control, though - and we all remember the last time one of those errors happened. By the same token, that same kind of error in Democrats' favor could mean a gain of 50 or more. And a lot of polled races have been within a few points, making it easy to imagine a very long night for Dems, or conversely a total blowout. Although maybe we were starting to see a late break to the left?

Predictions:
-- 538: Dems are "pretty clear favorites." Odds of control: 80.0%/87.4%/84.1%, depending on model. Median result of 233 seats.

-- Daily Kos Elections: Pickup of ~ 30 seats.

-- Cook: Pickup of 20-45 seats, most likely 30-40.

-- The Crosstab: 79% chance of Dem control, 229 seats most likely.

-- Crystal Ball: Pickup of ~ 34 seats.

-- The Economist: 86% chance of control, 229 seats most likely.

-- Optimus/DDHQ: 94.5% chance of Dem control.

-- YouGov: Dems with 225 seats.
More House stuff:
-- A lot of signs that districts are acting more like 2012 (reverting to the mean) than 2016.

-- College-educated suburbanites (especially women) seem to be going Dem hard.

-- This will be 1992 redux, as another "Year of the Woman" looks to have substantial gains in seats held by women.

-- Conventional wisdom has it that Dems need 7-8 points on the generic ballot to be favored, but maybe -- due to retirements and the PA redistricting - it's lower than that now?

***
SENATE
Things almost look mirror-image in the Senate, where Democrats are facing the downside of having overperformed in red states back in 2012. Dems saw some late improvement in polls, but are still facing long odds at an actual 51-49 majority. A 50-50 tie is more within reach, and would likely result in a power-sharing agreement on committees, but VP Pence would break ties, and both parties would be pushing hard to have someone (Murkowski and the Dems? Manchin and the GOP?) cross the aisle and caucus with them.

Dems do have good chances of pickups in Arizona and Nevada and outside shots in Tennessee and Texas (home of Betomania), not to mention the possibility of a runoff in Mississippi. At the same time, they seem to be down in North Dakota and are neck and neck in Florida, Missouri, and Indiana, and not totally out of the woods in Montana and...New Jersey?!?

Predictions:
-- 538: 17.6%/16.4%/15.5% chance of control, depending on the model. Median result of no net change in seats. | More.

-- Daily Kos Elections: No net change in seats.

-- David Byler/Weekly Standard: 15.4% chance of control. Median result of +1 R seat.

-- Crystal Ball: Net +1 R.
***
GOVERNORS
Democrats have almost nowhere to go but up, currently controlling only 16 states. They look primed to make substantial gains, though. And that's important long-term, because in many states the governor has a role in redistricting and could block 2010-style gerrymanders.

Cook Political has *ten* GOP-held governor seats that are rated Tossup. Some races of interest:
* Florida: New progressive hero Andrew Gillum versus really surprisingly racist Republican Ron DeSantis. Gillum would be Florida's first black governor.
* Georgia: Democrat Stacy Abrams versus perhaps the nation's worst vote suppressor, Republican Brian Kemp. This one will likely go to overtime, due to a runoff law designed to keep African-Americans out of office.
* Kansas: Democrat Laura Kelly versus the other big vote suppressor, Kris Kobach. Can Kansas break away from the disastrous Brownback years?
* Ohio: Dem Rich Cordray appears to have a slim lead over Republican Mike DeWine. Critical seat to preventing gerrymandering.
* South Dakota: Can Dem Billie Sutton become the first Democrat to hold this office since the 70s? He's been tied with Republican Kristi Noem in polling.
Predictions:
-- 538: Favored in 5 pickups, tossup in 4 more. | More.

-- Cook: 4-10 Dem pickups, mostly likely 6-8.

-- Daily Kos Elections: Pickup of about 10 seats.

-- Crystal Ball: Pickup of about 10 seats.

-- Governing Magazine: 7-10 seat pickup.
***
DOWNBALLOT
Not unlike the governor races, Democrats are currently at a low point lower down the ballot, but are poised to take control in a number of state legislatures and pick up important constitutional offices like attorney general and secretary of state. And there are multiple important ballot initiatives in many states, ranging from minimum wage increases to non-partisan redistricting to voting rights (Florida Amendment 4!).

-- Flippable guide to key downballot races.

-- Vox on legislatures that might flip.

-- Governing Magazine with: important ballot measures, attorney general race ratings, secretary of state race ratings, and legislative house race ratings.

-- Daily Kos Elections guides to key ballot measures and state legislatures.

-- Where could Dems pick up a legislative supermajority or break a GOP one? Check it out here (but be prepared for eyestrain).

-- Ballotpedia vulnerable trifectas (gov + both leg houses).

***
MORE READING & STUFF TO CHECK OUT
-- NBC: How we call races on Election Night.

-- Will youth voting be up? Probably!

-- The NBC briefing book. Lots of info on House/Senate/governor races.

-- 18 moments that shaped the midterms.

-- Maybe a good bit of "polling error" is really late movement in races.

-- Early voting is way up versus 2014 (admittedly, a low bar). Should you pay attention to early voting numbers? There's probably *some* value, but basically, unless it is Nevada and you are listening to Jon Ralston (or maybe Florida and Steve Schale), it probably isn't clear what it means.

-- Are the polling misses in 2016 what should be guiding our expectations, or the Virginia 2017 one?

-- In-depth TPM series on voting suppression.

-- Lots of races are likely to go to overtime, due to slow counting of ballots or runoffs. We may not know control of *either* chamber for days or even weeks.

-- It's hard to believe anyone is undecided, but polls still show a fair number of people are. Vox talks to a few of them.

-- How exit polls work, and how they're trying to fix them.

-- Congressional elections keep getting more closely correlated with presidential vote.

-- Steve Kornacki and his fabulous maps.

-- The infamous NYT needle is back. Nate Cohn tries to convince you he's not a monster for creating it.

-- Congress consistently gauges public opinion as being considerably to the right of what it actually is.

***
PLACES TO WATCH & THINGS TO WATCH FOR
-- Daniel Nichanian's list of key races is invaluable. From Senate down to mayor and county executives.

-- Apple News will have a nice-looking Election Night information channel.

-- 538 what to watch every hour.

-- Early races to watch (I'd add NJ-03 and NJ-07).

-- Or maybe these districts, from Slate?

-- 9 types of districts to watch.

-- Bloomberg reporting page, looks kind of nifty.

-- HuffPost results page has a nice race tagger, so you can watch some key races easily.

-- Daily Kos Elections resources:
-- Key race tracker
-- Poll closing times map
-- Hour by hour things to watch
-- Want to *really* overthink things? You can look at what Dem benchmarks are for *each county.*
-- Want to try and predict a race from two precincts reporting (hint: don't do that)? Then check out how hard it is to do that, by state - some states are pretty homogeneous, and some aren't.

-- How to plan your *entire* Election Day.

***
FINAL NOTE
Please vote. Make sure your friends do, too. We're all counting on you.

An Election Day thread will probably be a little bit more live-bloggy than the usual politics threads, but as always, please consider MeFi chat and the unofficial PoliticsFilter Slack for serious chatting, the current regular politics thread for non-Election Day items, the current MetaTalk venting thread for catharsis and sympathizing, and funding the site if you're able. Also, for the sake of our beleaguered mods, please keep in mind the MetaTalk on expectations about U.S. political discussion on MetaFilter.
posted by Chrysostom (2195 comments total) 253 users marked this as a favorite
 
Your 2018 Cannabis Voter's Suppliment 🌲 🔥 😙💨 💚

Colorado - Amendment X - would remove the definition of industrial hemp from the state constitution. The US Farm Bill negotiations slated for the upcoming congressional lame duck session include removing hemp from the Controlled Substances Act, Amendment X would change Colorado's definition of hemp from constitutional to statutory thus removing an obstacle for Colorado's agricultural industry to enter the hemp market.

Michigan - Proposal 1 - would legalize the use and sale of recreational marijuana, subject to a 10% tax, for individuals over the age of 21 and allow possession of up to 2.5oz and grow up to 12 plants for personal consumption (more generous limits than most states). Latest polls show it is likely to pass, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Whitmer supports the measure, Republican candidate Schuette personally opposes it but says, "as governor he will respect the will of the voters."

Missouri has three competing medical use initiatives -
  • Amendment 2 - enjoys broadest support from legalization activists, would tax medical marijuana at 4% to generate an estimated $18 million with proceeds going to fund veterans health care programs. It is the only initiative that would allow for home growing; patients could grow up to six plants, caretakers could cultivate up to eighteen.
  • Amendment 3 - a pet project of attorney/surgeon Brad Bradshaw who believes cannabis can cure cancer, would tax medical marijuana at 15% generating an estimated $66 million annually to fund a biomedical research institute that would be directed by Bradshaw with no state oversight except for a board of directors appointed by Bradshaw.
  • Proposition C - state law proposition supported by lobbyists and dark money groups, would tax medical marijuana at 2% to generate an estimated $10 million annually and spend the proceeds on services for veterans, drug treatment, early childhood education and public safety. Only initiative that would require local community approval for any medical use facility.
If voters approve multiple initiatives, the constitutional amendments take precedence over the state law proposition. If both constitutional amendments pass, the one with the most "yes" votes will take effect.

North Dakota - Measure 3 - would legalize recreational use for individuals over the age of 21 and create an automatic expungement process for prior marijuana convictions. This measure breaks from the familiar framework used in other successful state legalization efforts; it sets no limits on possession and does not create a regulatory structure to govern sales, leaving those issues for the legislature to address. Polling has been inconsistent.

Ohio - The municipalities of Dayton, Fremont, Garrettsville, Norwood, Oregon, and Windham have ballot measures that would locally decriminalize misdemeanor possession or set the penalties to "the lowest penalty allowed by state law."

Utah - Proposition 2 - would legalize medical use for individuals with qualifying illnesses. While polling indicates it is likely to pass, medical marijuana is coming either way as Governor Herbert has called for a post-election special legislative session to pass compromise legislation that modifies provisions of Proposition 2 negotiated between supporters and opponents.

Wisconsin - sixteen counties and two cities have various non-binding advisory referendum questions that would encourage state lawmakers to relax or eliminate prohibitions on pot ranging from decriminalization, medical use, to legalizing and taxing recreational use.
posted by peeedro at 9:04 PM on November 5 [62 favorites]


Thank you, Chrysostom, your contributions have been so valuable. This going to be one long goddamn day.
posted by msali at 9:04 PM on November 5 [112 favorites]


Most of the above proposals have not been polled, but Michigan's has, and looks like it should pass easily.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]


And I should have mentioned this but - ENORMOUS thanks to anyone who helped a campaign. Financially, phone or text banking, canvassing - this is how we win it back.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:08 PM on November 5 [75 favorites]


(amused by the title reference, and boy do I love the song, but isn't our boy Mr. Lydon on record as a red-hat fella? or am I confusticated and twitterpated?)
posted by mwhybark at 9:15 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]


My mantra for the past several days has been:

No matter what happens Tuesday night, good news or bad, Wednesday morning I will wake up and keep fighting.

Never stop, my dear Mefites!
posted by Tsuga at 9:15 PM on November 5 [89 favorites]


Also on the ballot: health care.

Three states—ID, NE, and UT—have referenda on the ballot to expand Medicaid, which could provide health insurance to a combined 325,000 people (I've been texting Idaho Medicaid a bunch, and the people on my list have been super nice and quite supportive). In addition, 14 states are electing governors and have not expanded Medicaid. Democratic wins in those states could lead to medicaid expansion, leading to coverage for up to 2.4 million more people.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]


May the road rise with you! [Oblique musical link for some background]. Will be watching nervously from this side of the Atlantic.
posted by rongorongo at 9:20 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]


I believe the ID and UT Medicaid referenda are considered likely to pass, too. Idaho's outgoing GOP governor backed it the other day.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]


I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]


I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.

This is one hell of a post, man. Don't worry about it. Thanks for doing this!
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:37 PM on November 5 [72 favorites]




Canadian here, would just like to wish all you fine, fine people on this board only the best of luck with tomorrow's election.

And yes, I am stressed also, why do you ask?

Take care, eh.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 9:48 PM on November 5 [64 favorites]


In state politics, New York Democrats just might be able to take control of the State Senate tomorrow. That would be really nice. Cuomo wouldn't be able to use the Republican Senate as a way to talk like a progressive while governing like a moderate anymore.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 PM on November 5 [43 favorites]


I thought rongorongo had scooped me, but that link appears to be geofenced so I get to post one for those in (at least!) the US. Funny that I had just been thinking of this song last week.
posted by rhizome at 9:52 PM on November 5


Long "final thoughts" writeup from Elliott (The Crosstab) Morris.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:53 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]


That would sure be refreshing, showbiz_liz! A lot of people I know have been volunteering for Andrew Gounardes (who has the potential to unseat Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)). I also enjoyed this piece about Arab and Muslim voters organizing for Gounardes.
posted by ferret branca at 9:54 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]


On my way home from class tonight I was trying to decide if the better strategy is to get shitfaced tomorrow...or tonight, and just be hungover all day.
posted by rhizome at 9:55 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]


NY Senate is rated either Lean D or Likely D, depending who you ask.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]


Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)

That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:11 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]


I'm not from Los Angeles, but I'd note that they have a proposal to amend it's charter to allow it to create a public bank that I think could set an example for other cities. It won't actually create a bank, because they need changes in state law and possible federal law changes (and approval), and a bunch of funding (billions apparently)... but having it on the ballot in the biggest city in California will put the issue in the minds of a lot of people, and Gavin Newsom is likely to be the next governor, and is campaigning on the creation of a state public bank for California, which is perhaps more likely to happen.

There have been at least three posts this year about public banks 1 2 3 so I won't rehash that, but I'm paying attention.
posted by gryftir at 10:16 PM on November 5 [38 favorites]


STAR voting (previously) was developed by Oregon academics, and fittingly Lane County, Oregon has a ballot measure to adopt its use. STAR advocates Equal.vote plan to propose measures in other Oregon counties as well.
posted by Jpfed at 10:18 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]


I’m shocked I didn’t read this on the blue before, probably because it came before the horror truly set in.


America is neither happy or good, but if it stops believing it can be, the whole world is going to suffer’

British journalist Laurie Penny as Cassandra at the DNC before the 2016 election.
posted by Wilder at 10:24 PM on November 5 [42 favorites]


Holy cow, Chrysostom - this is an AWESOME post. THANK YOU!

(But you didn't self-link to the amazing Official Chrysostom election tracking spreadsheet! It's fabulous! Go look, everyone!)

I, personally, am making a list of campaigns I connected with - anyone I wrote postcards for, or gave money to, or phonebanked for - along with watching returns for my own local races.

And I'd really like to extend my thanks to everyone who contributed ANYTHING to this election - whether it was getting yourself to the polls and voting, or helping get others to the polls, or writing postcards, or text banking, or phone banking, or registering voters, or canvassing, or donating money, or bringing food to campaign workers, or talking to friends or family or co-workers about the candidates and the issues. Every action makes a difference. Every drop is part of the wave.

Thank you.
posted by kristi at 10:29 PM on November 5 [59 favorites]


I think I'm most interested in how the carbon tax in Washington state is going to go, people can start something good
posted by edeezy at 10:56 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]




Because Politico is poison here is a better summary from Texas Monthly on the clickbait headline, "Beto Blew It". tl:dr -- Beto did not hire consultants and the usual suspects to run his campaign. Texas Monthly basically, says that Politico is wrong and Beto is making strides because he is not going with a losing script used by Democrats in Texas for decades.
posted by jadepearl at 11:38 PM on November 5 [39 favorites]


One initiative to watch: Washington’s I-1631 to impose a carbon fee on our top polluters. Supported by a huge coalition of advocacy groups, non-profits, tribes, groups who support people of color, labor and business. 99% of the money against has been big oil. I may be biased what with it being my main issue this cycle.
posted by R343L at 12:00 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]


Checking in here from the UK. I just want to say good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 12:26 AM on November 6 [116 favorites]


since the polls open in 2.5h i guess i am not going to bother sleeping but what i really want to do is physically drag all of my low turnout neighborhood neighbors down the block by their ears with chancla menaces
posted by poffin boffin at 12:29 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Coming in from NZ, again good luck America, and thanks to Chrysostom for this post, and for posting so frequently and deeply on the issues.

Our news is mostly corporate and without Radio NZ we'd know very little of your reality.
posted by unearthed at 12:55 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Sending good thoughts from Britain too - The Guardian's Jonathan Freedland explains why today matters so much to all us non-Americans. Please God, let it be good news on Wednesday.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:57 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


[A couple deleted. General reminder: I know we're all on edge, but this thread is not going to be useful for actually checking results/news if we stuff it up early with lots of chat. Please consider actual Chat, or you can, for example, favorite "we're all counting on you"and similar instead of repeating over and over. Thanks, everyone.]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:02 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Ratfucking is going pretty hard. Border patrol is doing crowd control exercise on election day. In El Paso.
posted by jadepearl at 2:55 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]


Ratfucking is going pretty hard. Border patrol is doing crowd control exercise on election day. In El Paso.

Also between a predominantly Hispanic community and its polling station. That’s so brazen I’m a bit gobsmacked by it.
posted by Happy Dave at 3:09 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]


As someone who hasn't had cable in decades, and relies on Hulu and Netflix for entertainment, is there some place I can go during the day to stream some good commentary and analysis leading up to tonight? I would have preferred MSNBC, but you have to log in with a provider.


As an aside, thank you to the woman who knocked on my door yesterday, canvassing for Andrew Gillum. I am glad they are taking nothing for granted and seeing boots on the ground at this late stage was wonderful and heartening.
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 3:27 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Something that makes me really disturbed for the state of our nation is how scared I am these last two elections to have my kids' school serve as a polling place.

But it's time to pack up my treats and go open the bake sale, because fuck them, that's why. They have guns but I have pecan bars and I know who's on the right side of history.

Good luck today, metafilter.
posted by gerstle at 3:37 AM on November 6 [137 favorites]


It's my birthday today. Yesterday I bought a bunch of food from Costco and invited friends and neighbors to hang out at my house so that a) we can have some community spirit and b) I can be distracted from the news. If any Pittsburgh mefites want dinner and company, please mefi mail me. I have macaroons, wine and a crockpot full of my husband's party meatballs. Kids are welcome.

Also, I bought 1500 'I voted' stickers because the precincts here don't give them out. I'm going to leave rolls with the poll workers in my neighborhood. Stickers for everyone! Let's go vote!
posted by Alison at 3:46 AM on November 6 [87 favorites]


Voted! Got there at 6:20 and there were ten people in front of me already. Poll workers said there had been people there waiting when they opened at 6 and I know that's kind of unusual. I hope that's a good sign nationally.
posted by dilettante at 3:47 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]


If you live in an apartment building consider putting up a sign in the entryway or elevator letting folks know it’s Election Day, what times the polls close, and the location of your building’s polling site, if there isn’t signage already.

If you want something to do while results come in tonight, postcards to voters is writing for the Senate runoff election in MS on Nov 27th.

Thanks to everyone who postcarded and canvassed and phone banked and voted!
posted by melissasaurus at 3:56 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]




When I first got together with my partner it was a few months before the 2016 election and so we didn't discuss politics a ton because Trump is crazy and we're voting for Hillary and everything is going to be great. Check please.

Then the election happened and I was despondent, tearful, scared, etc- all the feelings you probably had. He didn't understand it, he thought I was overreacting. He was born and raised in a reddish area with friends, coworkers and family members ranging mostly from red to apathetic, though he did vote for Hillary. Over the past two years things have been rocky for various reasons and politics was always a part of that. Although on the whole he agreed things were messed up, he definitely thought I spent too much time thinking, reading, and worrying. He thought I was exaggerating and that the Russia stuff sounded farfetched and implausible. When I first used the word "concentration camps" he got upset- come on, for fucks sake, that would never happen here. Eventually I decided it was best for us not to talk about these things. I wondered whether we were too different and whether this would ultimately pull us apart. When the border separation started, I went to a protest alone and didn't even tell him about it until after I came home.

To my surprise, he was supportive. I don't know how or when exactly things changed. I think he started listening to some good podcasts that really deepened his understanding- and rage. I think the border separation was the catalyst for him as it was for many people. Soon after, he apologized to me for all the grief and pushback about politics he'd been giving me up until that point. He watched parts of the Kavanaugh hearing with me and now loves Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.

I told him a few weeks ago that I was planning to be off work today and spend it volunteering. Maybe a week ago he told me he wanted to do the same. A couple days ago he texted me that he just found out that the most effective way to drive voter turnout is to talk to your own friends and family. (Yes!!) He tells me that he has compiled a long list of apathetic friends and family members who don't vote, and is planning to call each and every one of them to tell them why he is voting, and why he hopes they do too. Last update, he's convinced at least two non-voters to go out and vote. He's also off work today, and I think offering to give a ride to any of these people on his list who need it.

Even when people push back, many of them are listening. Sometimes it takes a while. Never give up.
posted by robotdevil at 4:03 AM on November 6 [170 favorites]


Please consider actual Chat

Chat is full.

(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)
posted by pompomtom at 4:04 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]




oooooh goodness today is here. I'm just getting up at 6AM to drop off my yard signs at a local polling place. After than I'm meeting friends at 7AM to hold a banner for GO VOTE and BETO for SENATE on a major freeway overpass to encourage morning commuters about election day. We are still pushing canvassing and phone banking hard today, but I can't because I think I injured myself over the weekend knocking 250 doors since Thursday. Maybe I'll join a phonebank.

I'm watching a livestream of an attorney out of Dallas who does a lot of voter protection work as I write this. Husband is renting car to drive people to the polls because our car is a small Fiat. And during Early Voting he got so into it he is now helping the people behind it alter the app to help drivers and voters who need rides better. He plans to drive all day over over the city. He trained to be a voting assistant for anyone who needs it (ie. how to use the machines, helping people with mobility issues, he signs a form saying he won't influence their vote).

Our Beto facebook group is helping to coordinate a lot of rides for students registered in other counties (like at parents house). We are trying to drive them all home and back for the day - some as far as 4 hr drives each way. But people seem to be stepping up and offering to drive them. Which makes me want to start crying if I think about it too long. I think I might stand outside grocery stores later instead of canvassing and just hand out Beto cards with voter info and pull up people's polling places if they want. Some friends did this and found it more effective than canvassing. It's really amazing how friendly people are to you when you have a Beto shirt on these last few days.

There are some places that are Early Voting places and not Election Day polling places - 19 around town - some of us are going to hang out there just in case voters come by so we can help them find their correct polling place. Our county clerk likes to do that - change peoples polling places every election.

There are reporters from all over the world here (I'm in Houston but I think there are people from elsewhere all over the state). I missed an interview with some from Belgium I was asked to be a part of. I had a 2 hour interview with Buzzfeed yesterday hopefully I didn't say anything too goofy I am so sleep deprived.

That's it! Have a great day everyone.
posted by dog food sugar at 4:26 AM on November 6 [105 favorites]


Got up early to vote, no lines, was back home before 7 AM. This is the first time in my adult life (and I'm 50!) that I live in a voting precinct that will vote blue.
posted by COD at 4:32 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Not to be too eponysterical, but my US polling address is still in Oakland, where a particular progressive ticket seems to have been heavily marketed through rave-flyer handouts as The Oakland guild of Space Cat Voters.

You can read more about them here, if you're so inclined.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:36 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


If you live in an apartment building consider putting up a sign in the entryway or elevator letting folks know it’s Election Day, what times the polls close, and the location of your building’s polling site, if there isn’t signage already.

Uhh this is a great idea I can't believe I didn't think of, thanks melissasaurus. As soon as I read that I jumped into action and made signs saying where the polling place was, the hours, the fact that you can register to vote at the polls, and what you need in order to register. Got them up on each exit door by about 7:15, just in time for people walking dogs and leaving for work- as I was walking my dog around the building I saw four people stop and look.
posted by robotdevil at 4:40 AM on November 6 [89 favorites]


Please consider actual Chat

Chat is full.

(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)


You can hit ESC to get around that message for now. Hopefully mods will fix?
posted by slipthought at 4:43 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Another one to watch: Question 3 in Massachusetts is a challenge to civil rights protections enacted for transgender people in the state two years ago. Yes on 3 translates into keeping those protections in place.

About to head over to my polling place and Yes the hell out of that question.
posted by Sublimity at 4:50 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]


I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.

Me too -- flagged your post as fantastic.
posted by Gelatin at 4:55 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]


[Chat should be fixed now, plus also fizz has made a Metatalk post for sharing voting stories.]
posted by taz (staff) at 5:00 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


My polling place has new machines with a paper ballot. The ballot is then stored in another machine. It didn't really seem much more secure than the old machines, which had paper spools mounted in a case on the machine itself. I did get a sticker, though, which has never happened before.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:11 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]




So, lawpeople, that crowd control exercise in Texas: if it can be demonstrated that people were kept from reasonable access to the polls, and that the CBP could have reasonably chosen a different day to conduct the exercise... is that not grounds for a huge lawsuit (that, admittedly, probably wouldn't address the actual election results, but still)?
posted by Rykey at 5:31 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]




Checking in from temporarily red* Wisconsin:

It's a nasty rainy day here, and the lines are longer than 2016. I know this because my ward always has the shorter of the two lines in my polling place, and today it was wrapped around the corner of the hall. I've never seen it wrapped around the corner.

And there's snacks and coffee from the roaster down the road! All sorts of fun.

*Please stand by while we adjust the picture
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 5:55 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]


This isn't data or anything like that, but I just want to share my little story here.

I have canvassed in the past and wanted to pitch in this time around. Once the local progressive action group gets your digits, they are *relentless*. Even if there's not an election, they want you to attend strategy meetings, help vet candidates, etc etc. I signed up for a few shifts to knock doors but the overall tenor of the country these past several months got me in a deep depression.

It's something I'm always battling, trying to find my way out of my own head and escape the fog. This summer it got bad. As summer moved to autumn it got worse. Canvassing shifts came and I stayed in bed. The local progressive action group texted me: "Hey, we missed you on Sunday. How about a make-up shift this coming weekend?" Letting them down made me feel even worse. My cats and my jobs were the only things that successfully got me out of bed, and sometimes even not those. To quote Bunk Moreland, shit was fucked.

So I never canvassed. I did manage to donate some money to some campaigns, but basically I was drowning in despair, convinced we had reached the end of democracy, I was a worthless piece of shit, and why even bother anymore.

My best friend in the whole world sort of came to the rescue. Okay, not sort of. He saved my life. All it took was a handful of phone conversations, but boy did I need those. Thanks, John.

Despair about the election was replaced with dread. It's not hopeless, but the inevitability of dirty tricks is going to sabotage everything, right?

And then this morning, I go to my polling place, and it is FUCKING MOBBED. Folks, I've been voting at this (admittedly blue) spot for 11 years, and I have never, ever seen so many people turn out.

Now, it's early. Very early. But I have hope. I think we can do this. Things will be okay. Just maybe the tide is turning? It's a strange feeling, a stirring like a hint of attraction or the sting of hunger, but it's in me and it's growing and it's real.

Anyway, don't forget to do the little things. Call your friends. Vote. Talk to your neighbors. Be human. Be kind. I love you all.
posted by rocketman at 6:09 AM on November 6 [91 favorites]


Listening to snippets on the radio this morning of the two major parties' leaders making their final appeals I realized that the Democrats' best choice for presidential candidate in 2020 is... Barack Obama.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:15 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Facebook reports here are that turnout all over the city is beyond anything we've seen since 2008. Not expected and probably not planned for. Long lines and long waits.
posted by dilettante at 6:15 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Several thousand educators in AZ, from pre-K to community college, have been on tenterhooks waiting for this election. I’ve had several of them independently describe to me that they’ve felt for the past few months “in limbo”, “in a holding pattern”, “with their life on hold”, “emotionally numb”, “just hunkered down”, “stuck in neutral”, “trying to wait the storm out” and other similar metaphors.

So many school board and governing board elections today, the results of which which will have direct and almost immediate effect on our jobs and livelihoods. If it goes one way, many of us will simply lose our jobs next year, and the ones remaining will see their compensation and benefits at risk. If it goes the other way, we will be able to pull away from the brink.

This may be the most important election I’ve ever experienced — in terms of direct, personal economic effect to me. And to think that my economic pain is just one small drop in a huge bucket of much more dire consequences to other people if this election doesn’t go well...

...just, come on, America.
posted by darkstar at 6:16 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]


A friend in Eastern CT just texted me that she had to stand in line for 15 minutes at her polling place.

At 6 am.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Since I have had to see this shit in my facebook feed twice in the last few days I fixed it. Feel free to share if you can't stand refusing to shun someone for voting for Steve King or Corey Stewart "being an adult."
posted by phearlez at 6:20 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


The weather does actually concern me, there is historical data that shows that bad weather depresses Dem turnout. This is obviously a special situation and I hope we can overcome but still. Fuck you, rain.
posted by lydhre at 6:20 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


The friend who said she waited in line for 15 minutes added that "the only other time I've had to wait was 2008, and THIS line was three times longer."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:23 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


I've been reading about vote gagging here and elsewhere, and it seems rather obvious that there's an effort to make voting as difficult as possible. I'm sorry it's this way, there's going to be queues and it's going to be a PITA but you have to do it. In my country it's a tradition to eat a sausage with bread on election day. I will do that and think of America.

This Kemp fellow, in Georgia, regardless of what happens today, he won't face any repercussions for his actions to steal votes, for stealing people's rights. I personally believe that is a serious crime and he should go to prison. If you're looking for electoral fraud, it's there.
posted by adept256 at 6:24 AM on November 6 [52 favorites]


Josh Marshall: Here we are, Folks. Trump: "The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."
posted by PenDevil at 6:26 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]


I had to wait like 10-15 min on line at my polling place in Brooklyn where literally every race on the ballot is a foregone conclusion.

Then I walked past another polling place where the line was a full city block long, and a few people thick.

Again, this is in a district where every race is a foregone conclusion.

I think we all know this is all we can do. So we’re all going to fucking DO it.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:27 AM on November 6 [36 favorites]


If you're a Massachusetts voter, be a Masshole, not an asshole and vote Yes on 3.
posted by pxe2000 at 6:27 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Seeing reports of some long lines even here in the blue Boston area. Also, remember: Polling places in schools tend to have bake sales, so bring cash - unless you vote at the Bates School in Roslindale, where they take credit cards and Venmo.
posted by adamg at 6:33 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


it's a tradition to eat a sausage with bread on election day.

I think that is an excellent tradition and one that we should start doing immediately.
posted by Melismata at 6:36 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


It was raining unpleasantly this morning but my polling place was, I think, busier than I have ever seen it. I always vote at about the same time, so I have reasonably decent standards for comparison. Voter turnout in my neighborhood is never high per se so there's never a line, but it was pretty active today. Also, millenials seem to be very active as election judges - there were more volunteers than I've ever seen, and not just old hands, either. My district always goes leftest-available-DFLer, too. The voters I saw did not seem like suddenly-energized Old White Conservatives (my area has a leavening of Old White Hippies and Radicals).

To the shores of need past the reefs of greed, etc.
posted by Frowner at 6:37 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Gallup comes out with one last poll this morning. Generic ballot: D+11, 54% - 43%.
posted by chris24 at 6:41 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]


[Just another reminder: We have the Metatalk Vote thread where people can talk about their experience voting and personal stories, we have Chat for chatty discussion, and we have the Fucking Fuck thread for venting, plus we have the regular WH/Admin politics catchall that's still open for other politics talk, so let's try to keep this channel mostly clear for voting related news and returns. Thanks.]
posted by taz (staff) at 6:42 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Neil deGrasse Tyson: Look what happened the last time you didn’t vote
posted by growabrain at 6:42 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Voted this morning in the rural red heart of mid-Michigan. New polling place so I can't gauge how busy it normally is, but I was number 125 at 7:45AM. Pretty crowded for a small township hall (which may not be a good indicator, though the last time I saw big crowds by me, Michigan went for Trump) which makes me wonder if all the inflammatory ads in right wing media are getting more traction than we blue belles might like to admit. The old white folks to vibrant youth ratio was about 3:1, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
posted by Chrischris at 6:43 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


but I was number 125 at 7:45AM

The old white folks to vibrant youth ratio was about 3:1

These two statements might be related.
posted by ian1977 at 6:48 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]


In the last month I wrote fifty postcards for Need To Vote/Need To Impeach, which is light years beyond any political thing I have ever done. And I EXHORTED my newly-eligible daughter to vote.

But last night I went on FB and simply told everyone to vote Democrat, which may be the most revolutionary thing that the current environment has driven me to. It felt weird, but...freeing?

God damn, this better work.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


A team of graduate students at my university entered a competition last weekend, presenting a statistical model that predicted the outcome of state level races in Minnesota. They did very well (they may win -- we won't know until we can compare their predictions with the actual ones), but I'm not actually here to brag. I'm here to say: their model suggested that rain deters Republican voters at a higher rate than it deters Democratic voters. I've been taking some heart in that today, as a cold rain falls on our polling places.
posted by dbx at 6:54 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Re: shitty weather: I am comforting myself with the argument that people are dissuaded from voting by shitty weather in inverse proportion to how motivated they are. And Democrats are really fucking motivated.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:55 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Breezed on through my voting precinct, in an actual Police Academy (minus mouth noises) on the way to work this morning. I live in Virginia's 4th Congressional District, which means I didn't get to help vote Dave Brat out of office in the 7th district. But all the text bots who blew up my phone in recent weeks still kept imploring me to vote for Brat or Spanberger anyway.
posted by emelenjr at 6:55 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


@GoogleTrends
"Dónde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today - spiking 3,350%.
posted by chris24 at 6:57 AM on November 6 [101 favorites]


About to go out with my 7 year old in the pouring rain to vote in DC - getting soaked will be a small price to pay to vote for some folks genuinely committed to driving the money changers out of DC politics, Elissa Silverman and David Schwartzman [Council at Large], Emily Gasoi [Ward 1 Board of Education], and our outstanding Attorney General, Karl A. Racine.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:57 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Just voted in my newly de-gerrymandered PA 2nd district! There was a line out the door as the rain started because the machines in my ward were down. The repair crew arrived just as I did so I texted some coworkers and said I'm going to wait. Some of my neighbors who had to get to work opted for a provisional, some said they'd be back later, and some stuck it out with me. It took an additional 30 mins but everyone's spirits seemed high.

I agree with you schadenfrau, it'd take a sharknado to keep me from voting today.
posted by cmfletcher at 6:58 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]


their model suggested that rain deters Republican voters at a higher rate than it deters Democratic voters.

This may or may not have to do with various and sundry deals they've made with certain demonic influences, vis a vis water solubility and tendency to scream "I'm melting!" when subjected to rainfall. I imagine the trend gets nastier the higher you go up the Republican hierarchy.
posted by Mayor West at 7:00 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]


"Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?"
"A Republic, if you can keep it."

Benjamin Franklin
posted by kirkaracha at 7:00 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]


It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.
What's the point of the voting machines (which also seems like a bizarre concept, I mean, just use a pencil) if they don't even speed up the voting?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:00 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


"Dónde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today - spiking 3,350%.

I remember someone on metafilter asserting that the hispanic/latinx vote in 2016 was going to absolutely shred trump in arizona and texas. maybe they were just off by a couple years.
posted by logicpunk at 7:02 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.
What's the point of the voting machines


All functioning as designed by Republican administrations. They are there to avoid any unpleasantness caused by undesirables actually voting. Two decades now, almost, and going strong.
posted by petebest at 7:06 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Currently standing in a line out the door to vote in Nashville, just made it past the 100ft electioneering sign.
posted by ghharr at 7:06 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]


I doubt I’ll see any long lines at the polls here today... but that’s because most of the ballots are already in. Pima hit just a smidge shy of 50% turnout on the early ballots alone. It’s gotten to the point where 75-80% of the vote here is early voting. And this isn’t a bad thing.
posted by azpenguin at 7:12 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I have a friend who works for the Associated Press in NYC on elections nights calling counties across the country to get the vote totals. She said that for this election, they decided to move to a different location for security reasons. She also said that if you are a poll watcher, but don't feel like your BOE will be responsive, you can call the AP directly and report problems/anomalies. She sent me this info:

The Associated Press is the only major news organization that has a news stringer in almost all Board of Election offices the night of an election. Something they very much pride themselves on in this day and age. The stringer reports to their AP regional center every 45 minutes with the vote count as it progresses during the evening (and beyond). Also, The Stringer reports on anything that may either affect the integrity of the vote or the vote tally in any way as it comes up. This can include the breakdown of voting machines, problems with counting the votes or retrieving information to polls closing early, or people having problems casting their ballots.

The Stringer has to be at the Board of Elections Office they have been assigned to 30 minutes before the closing of the polls. When they make their first report to the AP after arriving one of the first questions they are asked is if there is anything to report that might affect the voting and/or the vote count that evening.

If anyone experiences anything that they feel that the AP should be made aware of on election day they can call their local Board of Elections and ask to speak to the AP Stringer and they are supposed to either put you in direct contact with the Stringer or take your number and have Stringer call you right back.

However, if the person doesn't feel like calling their local Board of Elections office or it is before the Stringer has arrived they may call the number below that is the closest to their location and let the AP know directly what is going on and the AP will follow up. This I am pretty sure can be done anonymously.

Link to AP Bureaus in the United States and Puerto Rico direct numbers.

posted by kimdog at 7:13 AM on November 6 [83 favorites]


It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.

I get to line up 4 times when I vote. I line up separately to
  • sign in,
  • get my ballot,
  • get a booth where I fill in my ballot,
  • return my ballot (this is where the machine is).
Naturally the lines bump into each other and sometimes come close to crossing.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 7:13 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Hyper-local early voting note: I voted on this past Saturday, and the two vote-tallying machines (New Mexico is still oldschool - paper fill in the bubble ballots, scanned by a machine) had registered more than 2,000 votes each, in one week of early voting. The volunteers were all pretty happy about it, and they even cheered for a first-time voter. It was a positive experience all-around.

(And now I'll turn away from live updates and both politics threads until tomorrow, because I can't take 2016 all over again.)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:14 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Currently waiting in line to vote in my deep blue well off district which has never happened before in my 15 years of living and voting here
posted by The Whelk at 7:20 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]


As someone who hasn't had cable in decades, and relies on Hulu and Netflix for entertainment, is there some place I can go during the day to stream some good commentary and analysis leading up to tonight? I would have preferred MSNBC, but you have to log in with a provider.

This audio-only link for MSNBC has been pointed out in past politics megathreads. For video:
  • Election Night 2018 Coverage with Democracy Now! & The Intercept
    • 7 p.m. to 1 a.m. ET
    • Guests: Aimee Allison, Carol Anderson, Ari Berman, Aída Chávez, Lee Fang, Briahna Gray, Ryan Grim, Mehdi Hasan, Naomi Klein, Ralph Nader, Allan Nairn, John Nichols, Linda Sarsour.
    • If they're using DN!'s normal streaming infrastructure then in addition to watching in a browser on the web site you may be able to plug this .m3u8 link, where the daily broadcast stream normally shows up, into media player software or a Chromecast or other device
  • Al Jazeera English has been advertising this additional Youtube stream “US midterms LIVE: AJStream meets AJ+” alongside their normal 24-hour stream
    • 02GMT—05GMT, which I think (?) is going to be 9PM to Midnight ET / 8PM—11PM CT / 7PM—10PM MT / 6PM—9PM PT
(and of course there's a “Places To Watch” section of the OP.)
posted by XMLicious at 7:22 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


The poll workers at my precinct's table were both young women, which I have *never* seen there before, it's always been the retiree sort. I wonder if that's the case elsewhere?

Regardless, I loved seeing it.
posted by jammer at 7:29 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Triumph the Insult Comic Dog: Ted Cruz is the Lion of the senate!
posted by growabrain at 7:31 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


What's the point of the voting machines (which also seems like a bizarre concept, I mean, just use a pencil) if they don't even speed up the voting?

I'mma treat this as a serious question rather than indulge my instinct to snark about corporate enrichment and solutions in search of a problem. Don't worry, I'll be back to my same old snarky annoying self in no time.

People pitching computer crap for voting didn't just appear in 2000, but the varied reports of fuckups in the 2000 election really kicked it into high gear. The stuff that got the most coverage - and subsequent jokes/etc - were hanging chads, which refers to the little rectangle of paper that is supposed to be totally dislodged when someone votes on a system using a punch card. (which obviously is yet another technological "solution" that the computing industry dropped on us for voting, starting in the 1950s).

When you voted in Florida (and other areas, but as always we made dysfunction famous with this) you would go sign in and they'd hand you a plain punchcard, all the holes still filled. You'd walk up to one of the little kiosks and there's be a slot to slide the card down into. You needed to put it all the way in so the top holes on the card aligned with the little 'horns' and now you're ready to vote. You can see one of the machines in this article. There's a little booklet with all the voting options and this little stylus which you use to punch the hole matching your choice. Flip through the options, punch your choices, then take the card back out.

Now you're left with this card which to the naked eye is completely incomprehensible. There should be a series of holes that a machine can read to determine what you meant to vote. The downside here - and this is the sort of reasoning used to push these touch screen solutions - is that nothing stopped the voter from fucking up the card in a million ways. Punch more than one choice for President. Don't punch any for that City Council seat. Or, and here's the hanging chad problem, a hole is punched but the little square is still hanging on.

So you see that later, was that a voting attempt? Or was that a square that got pushed partially out during handling? The problem was exacerbated by bad process, where the little drop area for the squares hadn't been cleaned out in the machines. If you've ever tried to use a hand hole punch where nobody has emptied out the catch bin you've experienced this.

So in 2000 you have Florida being the most Florida it can be and pictures aplenty of various vote inspectors trying to eyeball these ballots to understand what the fuck they really indicate and a nation in a panic that they might not find out who won for a whole two weeks and suddenly Diebold and the like have a chance to pitch their touch screens.

So really the tl;dr here is that speed was never really the primary pitch for these things. Accuracy and idiot-proofing - whether that idiot is the voter or the poll workers - was more the focus. And in fairness, there's upsides to touch screens that it's hard to duplicate other ways. Got an election like a city council where you can pick two people out of 5 choice? That was hard to indicate on the little punch card things and impossible to give feedback about. Touch screens can use color and visual indicators. Push the button for SKIPPY when you meant SLAPPY? Just press the one you really meant and switch it before you press the big old SUBMIT button at the end. Skipped by an item and didn't realize it? Touch screens can pop up a message saying "you didn't pick anything for item 4, do you want to submit anyway?" message.

The problem isn't the touch screen, it's that when you press submit they just put some bits on a card and there's no way to make sure they're the bits the voter really meant. The touch screen systems we used here in Arlington VA till a few elections ago had a little ticker tape that also stored the votes but the voter couldn't see that, so it's a verification of something voters never verified.
posted by phearlez at 7:31 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]


Reasons to be hopeful:
ANOTHER Andrew Gillum canvasser this morning! Two yesterday! She wanted to know if we voted, and if we hadn't, did we need help getting a ride to the polls? WONDERFUL.
Dropped my 18 year old daughter off to vote for the first time. I was so proud of her. She's a liberal like her step-dad :)
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 7:32 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]


On election morning, Border Patrol holds public crowd control demonstration in El Paso

El Paso is Beto's home ground.

Also, if you're feeling twitchy, call retirement homes near you and ask if they need volunteers to help get people to the polls. Y'all, I'm carrying a 100 year old, pink hat wearing, daughter of a suffragette to the polls in a little bit. She says she hasn't missed an election since she watched her mother defy her father and the local leaders to cast a ballot in 1920.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:32 AM on November 6 [168 favorites]


I got to the polls in my St. Louis suburb about 15 minutes after opening, and there was already a healthy line that looked like 2008.

We have a very long ballot in St. Louis County today -- way too long for the cardboard privacy sleeves for the paper version -- with three choices for medical marijuana, ongoing fuckery with the County Executive vs. the STL County Council, a whole bunch of judges up for retention votes, etc. I chose a paper ballot and wished I'd gone touchscreen just to save my hand from filling in a hundred bubbles.

A few people were sitting on the floor to fill out paper ballots rather than waiting for booths or spots at tables with cardboard privacy screens.

I'm nervous about the senate race -- McCaskill is probably my least favorite Democrat ever but still a Democrat, and Hawley gives me the creeps. Polling has been slightly in Claire's favor but a massive dump of gross anti-choice campaign signs along with Hawley signs went up all over surrounding neighborhoods over the weekend.
posted by Foosnark at 7:36 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


(For context, there is almost never a line when I go to vote at that polling place. In the primary, I arrived at about the same time and was the second voter of the day. The paper ballot scanner showed 33 voters so far and there were probably 3-4 times as many people going for touchscreens.)
posted by Foosnark at 7:38 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The many stories of large turnout numbers are heartening. If we are looking at a blue wave (TTTCS), I hope the media takes notice that the people of America are rejecting Trump's mendacity, corruption, and open racism, just as his perennial unpopularity in the polls indicates they do.

This moment in history is our test, but it's also the media's. If we the people pass the test and the media continues to follow its lazy "both sides" model that gives voice to white supremacists, fascists, and Republicans -- but I repeat myself -- they will deserve all the scorn loyal Americans will inevitably heap upon them.
posted by Gelatin at 7:38 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Meanwhile in GA, voting machines in Gwinnett County have gone down, causing long delays.
posted by emjaybee at 7:40 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Just got home from voting! Walked to my polling place, where there was a short line to get in, and then a longer one to feed my paper ballots into the scanner. The poll workers it had been steadily busy all day so far. When I left there was a much bigger line-- maybe 25-30 people, vs like 5 when I arrived. Then I bought a giant muffin from the bake sale and headed home in the rain.

On my way out, I passed my current state delegate on his way in. He got primaried from the left, so he wasn't actually on the ballot, but good for him for showing up anyway.
posted by nonasuch at 7:44 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]






Meanwhile, in cobalt-blue Massachusetts, a bunch of retrograde assholes somehow managed to get a question onto the ballot about trans rights, which is effectively "Do you think the state should still treat trans people as human y/n?" It's infuriating to even have to vote on this, but it's wildly encouraging to see that the machine guns opened fire on this thing the moment it tried to take the beach. I've been canvassed about this (and ONLY this, because hey, seriously blue district where all the important decisions were made in the primaries last month) a handful of times, and on my 1/8-mile walk to the train station this morning, I met four people carrying big ol "Yes on 3" signs who were directing people to their respective polls. No one has done much polling recently, but the numbers I've seen suggest that the Ys out number the Ns about 4-to-1. It never stood much of a chance, but is clearly a bellwether: if they can get 30 or 40% of the vote in liberal Disneyland, they might try it somewhere else that's less progressive. If the polling numbers from today hold, they're likely to get 15-20%, way under even what the Crazification Factor would suggest.

Motherfuckers, you try to come at trans rights in the bluest state in the land, you're gonna get the horns.
posted by Mayor West at 7:49 AM on November 6 [82 favorites]


Mark one down for another story of ridiculous--seemingly preventable?--voting problems in North Carolina

Humidity causes ballot problems in North Carolina
It could be a long night before results come in for Wake County, North Carolina’s second most populous county, where Democrats hope to pick up state House and Senate seats in a bid to break the GOP’s supermajority in the legislature.

County election officials had already predicted that heavy turnout could delay results, but as voters lined up Tuesday morning, precinct officials began reporting that paper ballots were repeatedly jamming in tabulators because of humidity problems. Some ballots may have to be counted by hand. Polls close in the state at 7:30 p.m.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:53 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Motherfuckers, you try to come at trans rights in the bluest state in the land, you're gonna get the horns.

The unspoken thing that is on the ballot this time is if America should be based on equality in general.
posted by jaduncan at 8:01 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]


NY 23rd maybe has a competitive race with Tracy Mitrano against the affable liar Tom Reed. There was a crowd at my polls this morning - no lines but a constant stream of people at the polls and a constant stream of cars pulling in and out.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:03 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Fuck 'em up, team.
posted by Going To Maine at 8:08 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.
posted by growabrain at 8:08 AM on November 6 [52 favorites]


Never miss an opptunity for thematic outfits

Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
posted by Gelatin at 8:09 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Family reports that polling places in the blue-er areas of NY-23 were “PACKED,” which is definitely good for Mitrano.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:15 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Colorado has same day registration and while it is a vote by mail state you can vote in person. Likely at your city hall or courthouse. Also, you are legally entitled to a provisional ballot. If you show up to the polling place and ask for one they must give it to you.

Vote.

No excuses.
posted by East14thTaco at 8:15 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Younger voters turn out big in Tennessee's early voting - Mike Reicher, Nashville Tennessean
An analysis by the political data group TargetSmart shows that 98,000 people age 18 to 29 have voted early in the state, compared to 12,800 in 2014 — a more than seven-fold increase. The data includes early voters and absentee voters, as of Nov. 1.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:18 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]


Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.

And the bigger the rebuke to Trump, the greater the narcissistic injury to his sorry orange ego and the less persuasive his "I saved the Senate in an historically friendly map for Republicans" face saving will be. And if the media narrative becomes "historical rebuke of Trump," it'll cause him to lash out even more, earning him worse coverage even before Democrats release the tax returns he's desperate to hide and reveal his crimes with investigations.
posted by Gelatin at 8:18 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I'mma treat this as a serious question...

Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:23 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Spreading this link far and wide today: polls.pizza lets you donate money and they'll send pizza to crowdsourced areas with long polling lines. FEED THEM!
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:24 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Oops, We Forgot to Plug in the Voting Machine - Blake Paterson and Jessica Huseman, ProPublica
In Huntsville, Alabama, voters at one location — the Charles Stone Agricultural Center — wrote so hard that the pen perforated the two-sided ballot, causing the vote-counting machine to register the ballot as an error, according to Tommy Ragland, the Madison County probate judge.

“Voters are bearing down so hard with the pen, it’s like they’re taking their anger out on the ballot itself,” Ragland said, adding that voters can redo their ballot if they make this mistake.
posted by bassooner at 8:24 AM on November 6 [45 favorites]






lthough I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.

Me too! High five.
posted by emjaybee at 8:37 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I'mma treat this as a serious question...

Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.


It's important to note that voting equipment varies wildly by state. In North Carolina it's close to what you're doing in the UK except that the piece of paper looks like a standardized test ("fill in the ovals") and the box you drop the paper in is a machine that can tally the votes. I'm happy with this system and prefer it to moving to something like touchscreens.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:43 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Here's a photo of a British voting machine. What more do you need?
posted by Paul Slade at 8:45 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
posted by Gelatin at 10:09 AM on November 6 [3 favorites +] [!]
Huh, I never thought of this. Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
posted by Billy Rubin at 8:45 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.

And more...

John Weaver (Kasich, McCain, Bush strategist)
I voted early 2 weeks ago & didn't vote for a single Republican. It pains me to say this, after a lifetime's career in GOP politics, but today, this moment, the only choice is to vote for Democrats.

Mike Hettinger
Retweeted John Weaver
As a former House Republican Chief of Staff, I'd like to associate myself with this thread. #vote

Max Boot
If you’re as sick and tired as I am of being sick and tired about what’s going on, vote against all Republicans. Every single one. That’s the only message they will understand. And I say that as a former Republican. Me: WaPo - Vote against all Republicans. Every single one.

Tom Nichols
This midterm is not about policies. It would be pretty to think so, but it's not.
This is about voting down the line against Republicans who have abdicated their constitutional duty. It's about saving our system by voting for divided government.
posted by chris24 at 8:47 AM on November 6 [99 favorites]


Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.

Me too. With buttons saying "I absentee voted" and "I vote because women are people too."
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:51 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Washington State!
Washington My Home!
On the West Coast, election doesn't end on election night.
Here’s what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.
Midterm election turnout could surpass Washington state record set amid Vietnam War turmoil.
In Washington State, 3 G.O.P. [Congressional] Districts That Could Flip.
Carbon tax, gun law, competitive House seats among hot races on state ballot

Total Results.

Initiative 1631 - "The initiative would enact a carbon emissions fee on large emitters of carbon based on the carbon content of fossil fuels sold or used in the state and electricity generated in or imported for use in the state. " The Ballot Question That Could Transform U.S. Climate Politics as Washington State Could Become The First To Charge A Carbon Fee. After a decade of failed carbon taxes, Washington state is pushing to pass the country's first "carbon fee." Will this time be different? Arguments for and against I-1631’s carbon fees

Initiative 1634 - "This measure would prohibit local government entities from imposing any new tax, fee, or other assessment on grocery items." Long story short, Seattle put a tax on sweetened beverages, and this is an attempt to prevent that from occurring anywhere else. A solution in search of a problem

Initiative 1639 - "Initiative #1639 would implement restrictions on the purchase and ownership of firearms." Voters in Washington State Are Poised to Pass Some of the Country’s Toughest Gun-Safety Laws. A big nudge to safety for gun culture. "While it contains reasonable elements, there also are questionable and unsettling expectations tucked in to the 30-page document." Arguments for and against WA state's gun initiative

Initiative to the Legislature 940 - "Initiative 940 would create a good faith test to determine when the use of deadly force by police is justifiable, require police to receive de-escalation and mental health training, and provide that police have a duty to render first aid. It would remove the requirement that prosecutors show that a law enforcement officer acted with malice to be convicted" Former Seattle police official tells why he appears in election ad with Charleena Lyles’ sister. CON: Police officers at risk if Initiative 940 passes. We see problems with the deadly force initiative, but here’s why we recommend a ‘yes’ vote anyway.
Opponents and supporters of Washington Initiative 940 on deadly force were allies, and could be again

Advisory Vote 19 - "Non-Binding Question on Oil Spill Tax Repeal" What You Need to Know About Advisory Vote 19. "In the 2018 session, the Legislature extended the state’s oil spill administration tax and its oil spill response tax, both of which are levied on crude oil brought to refineries by ships or barges. The two taxes, which together total 5 cents on a 42-gallon barrel, were extended to crude coming in by pipeline." Why do we even have that lever vote? Thank perpetual ballot con-man Tim Eyman.

Election to the US Senate
Maria Cantwell (D) Incumbent - Susan Hutchison (R). Cantwell is popular and the clear favorite.

Elections to the US House of Representatives: Contested congressional races focus in Washington state

Washington 1st - most of Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish counties, as well as parts of King.
Suzan DelBene (D) Incumbent - Jeffrey Beeler (R) - Del Bene is clear favorite

Washington 2nd - San Juan and Island counties, and the mainland from Bellingham to Lynnwood
Rick Larsen (D) Incumbent - Brian Luke (Lib.) Larsen is clear favorite

Washington 3rd - the southwestern corner of the state
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) Incumbent - Carolyn Long (D). Butler favored, 3 in 4. In Carolyn Long, Jaime Herrera Beutler Faces Her Biggest Challenge Yet as Blue wave threatens to wash away one of GOP’s few Hispanic congresswomen and Long, other Democrats rally close to finish line

Washington 4th - the middle third of the state
Dan Newhouse (R) Incumbent - Christine Brown (D) Newhouse is clear favorite

Washington 5th - the eastern third of the state
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) Incumbent - Lisa Brown (D). McMorris Rodgers is at 3 in 4 , The Republican Leadership Member Most Likely to Lose as Democrat eye upset in conservative Washington state district. Once a deficit hawk, McMorris Rodgers has no idea what Brown should have cut during the Recession.

Washington 6th - the Olympic Peninsula, Kitsap and part of Tacoma
Derek Kilmer (D) Incumbent - Douglas Dightman (R). Kilmer is clear favorite.

Washington 7th - Vashon and points north on the Mainland, Normandy Park through Seattle to Edmonds
Pramila Jayapal (D) Incumbent - Craig Keller (R) Jayapal is clear favorite.
She Didn’t Pick the Resistance. The Resistance Picked Her. Now She’s One of Trump’s Most Fearless Opponents. One of the "Samosa Caucus" and Explains Why Her Work on Immigration Policy Is Personal and her strong support of Medicare-for-All


Washington 8th - eastern parts of King and Pierce counties, and across the mountains to Chelan and Kittitas
Kim Schrier (D) - Dino Rossi (R). Schrier is up after a recent poll, 2 in 3. Why Kim Schrier left medicine to run for Congress against Dino Rossi, long time WA state campaigner. Record-setting $25 million pours into Washington state House race in Seattle suburbs, the nail-biting countdown to a test of the Trump presidency

Washington 9th - the rest of Tacoma up through South Seattle and across to Bellevue and the Eastside
Adam Smith (D) Incumbent - Sarah Smith (DemSoc) Smith is the clear favorite, LOL, I mean the incumbent 11-termer, not he 30 year of DemSoc outsider. Smith vs. Smith: Two Democrats Clash in 9th Congressional District Forum. WEAPONS MAKERS RUSHING CAMPAIGN CASH TO DEMOCRAT IN LINE TO CHAIR DEFENSE INDUSTRY’S KEY HOUSE COMMITTEE as Sarah Smith’s Democratic insurgent campaign aims for upset in Congressional race. Can Sarah Smith Be Seattle’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

Washington 10th - Olympia and the South Sound
Denny Heck (D) Incumbent - Joseph Brumbles (R). Heck is the clear favorite.

There's a bunch of local races, as the entire State House of Representatives and 1/4 of the State Senate is up for election. These Washington candidates are looking to shape policy in the capital
Control of Washington Legislature could hinge on late ballot counts - "The chance for cliffhanger elections may be even greater in the Legislature, where Democrats currently have a one-vote majority in the state Senate and a two-vote majority in the House." Education has been a big issue, and Washington Democrats may win largest legislative majorities in a decade - "The prospect of large majorities in the state Legislature has some Democrats hoping they can make good on ideas they’ve long championed but have been blocked by Republicans — and fellow Democrats within their small majorities."

You probably head about Matt Shea, the Spokane area State Representative who wrote a "biblical manifesto for war" which suggests supporters of abortion and gay marriage be killed. Something’s Brewing in the Deep Red West, and he's been referred to the FBI, but since‘Homeland Security’ Ignores White Terror, DHS Veterans Say and For two decades, domestic counterterrorism strategy has ignored the rising danger of far-right extremism. In the atmosphere of willful indifference, a virulent movement has grown and metastasized. especially in the inland northwest, I'm pretty sure nothing will come of it.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:51 AM on November 6 [54 favorites]


Here's a photo of a British voting machine. What more do you need?

Americans need a lot more than that because we don't have the same electoral system. Maybe we should have a simpler system! But we don't, and that kind of simple ballot would not reflect the range of options available to Americans when voting -- American elections often involve voting for multiple individual candidates across multiple different races. You don't vote for a party (although you can, in some areas), you vote for umpteen individual people, or not. You can write in individual candidates that don't appear on the ballot, so you need space for that. You can vote for individual ballot measures, or not. All that gets written out. Here is (for example) a 2017 sample ballot for my area [PDF] -- to reduce that complexity, we would need to radically restructure what we're voting for, a topic that goes beyond changes to the ballots themselves.
posted by cjelli at 8:53 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Somehow I ended up being too sick to work and too sick to go outside and knock on doors, so I get to spend today with my favorite group of high-information participants in our Republic's civic life! I voted in October and took melissasaurus' wonderful suggestion to put up a voting information sign in my building, with the important parts in blue.

I've also aggregated a very few live coverage/results pages for up-to-the-minute information on how voting is going all over the country:

Five Thirty-Eight's live commentary is up.

Washington Post's live blog is going strong.

New York Times' Live Election Results page and CNN's live results page, which obviously haven't started updating.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 8:54 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Paul Slade Not to defend some of the wronger parts of American voting, but in the US we vote on a **LOT** of offices and issues.

Here in Texas I voted on literally dozens of offices and measures. At the very least a scantron style ballot for easy machine counting seems reasonable. Here's a sample ballot for Bexar County (where I voted).

You'll note that it's six pages of densely packed candidates and ballot measures. Hand counting is certainly possible, but it'd take longer per ballot than in other systems where generally a person is only voting on a handful of candidates or issues.
posted by sotonohito at 8:55 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


> On the West Coast, election doesn't end on election night.
Here’s what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.


What fresh hell is this ... oh. OK, it's Washington State specific.
Magnificent comment, too tense to read it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:56 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Here's a photo of a British voting machine. What more do you need?

In general, US elections have a wide variety of questions, including bond issues and all kinds of other questions.

Here in Maine we also use the "fill in the oval" type ballots and I'll vote for the following:

- Governor of my state (choose one)
- US House District 1 (Ranked choice, rank 3 candidates in order of preference)
- US Senate (ranked choice, 3 candidates)
- State Senator (choose one)
- Maine House Representative (choose one)
- Judge of Probate
- Sheriff
- District Attorney (two of three candidates have withdrawn)
- County Commissioner
- City Council Rep
- School Board
- Water District Administrator
- Citizen Initiative referendum (vote yes or no)
- four bond issues (vote yes or no) (this is approving borrowing by the state)
- one city referendum question

In other, larger states (see Washington State, above) there can be even more issues. I understand the draw of wanting to move all that to an electronic format (and electronic voting can be more accessible for people with disabilities, and allows you to easily provide ballots in multiple languages), but of course the security issues are very serious.
posted by anastasiav at 8:56 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


In Brooklyn, there were like 50 people ahead of me in line to vote, ~15 filling out ballots, and and ~15 more waiting to turn their ballots in. Took about 40 minutes all told. Been voting at this location over 4 years, and I'm not sure I've ever had to wait more than 5 minutes before.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:57 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]


> Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.

quietly him the Internationale every now and then, just to make clear that red doesn’t mean republican.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:02 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]


Bob Moore (WaPo)
BREAKING: Border Patrol has postponed it’s Election Day “crowd control exercise,” per agents at site.
posted by chris24 at 9:04 AM on November 6 [68 favorites]


My polling place in VA-11 was waaaaaaay less busy than in 2016, much more in line with 2014 levels. Not shocking since it's a safe blue district (right next to the Wexton/Comstock battleground), to the point where I didn't even realize our Rep had an opponent until last week, and without any local elections since it's an unincorporated area. Rain probably had something to do with it as well, although I've heard from people in more contested districts that the downpour didn't stop lines from forming there.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:07 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.

The big difference between (almost all) UK voting and US voting is the length of the ballot.

In a standard election in the UK, you're called on to mark a ballot for your preferred MP, and you're done. (Does not apply to council or other local elections obvs).

In a standard election like this one in the US, it will vary depending on where you live but it's common that you're asked to mark a ballot for
  • US Representative
  • US Senator
  • Governor
  • Lt Governor (usually not a pair with the governor's race)
  • State secretary of state
  • State attorney general
  • Other statewide offices
  • State lower chamber legislator
  • State upper chamber legislator
  • Assorted local offices
  • Some kind of judicial elections
  • Between zero and twenty or so ballot propositions
All of which means that American ballots are big and complicated in ways that UK ballots rarely if ever are, and means that you really do want machines counting them because humans routinely and egregiously fuck this up. If you don't believe me, grade a pack of scantron exams by hand; it's hard. It's shockingly easy to look at one thing while recording it as a vote for something else.

Once you're going to use machines for counting anyway, using machines for voting isn't transparently stupid. Direct recording machines do have a couple of small advantages. Most obviously, in multilingual environments you don't have to worry about how many ballots to print in English and Spanish and Tagalog and Russian and what have you; people just pick their favorite language at the machine. Secondarily, a machine can help voters avoid spoiling their ballot by picking too many selections, and remind voters to vote in every race. These are pretty small-potatoes advantages though.

In practice the direct recording machines haven't aged well and the movement has been pretty clearly towards machine-readable paper ballots, so voting is like taking a standardized test.

It's a shame that the old mechanical machines were comically unsecured and unreliable and that at the end you'd have to have parts custom-machined to repair them. When you pulled that last lever to record your vote and open the little curtain, you knew you had just worked some democracy upon some motherfuckers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:08 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]


BREAKING: Border Patrol has postponed it’s Election Day “crowd control exercise,” per agents at site.

They'd already had the authoritarian press photos and buzz, of course.
posted by jaduncan at 9:09 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


How to Watch the Midterm Results Without Cable via Lifehacker.

I know there are some links upthread but this looks like a pretty exhaustive collection.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:09 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


MetaFilter: adults who invariably let you down.
posted by klanawa at 9:12 AM on November 6


My local polling place did not have lines at 8:15am. Granted, I live in the sticks, and in a heavily Republican district (Michele Bachmann's former district, actually). But everyone was organized AF. They had a table for directing people through a line (empty when I walked by, since there was no line), a person at the entrance to the school gym to direct you to either the registration line or the check-in line, and two people at each table with their verbal instructions whittled down to their purest form. Then a person who offered instructions on how to load the ballot into the counting machine (Scantron ballots), and hand you an "I voted" sticker. I was in and out in about 5 minutes.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:13 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


it's thanks to metafilter that i learned so much (too much? lol) about the american system, and your ballots will always be one of the genuinely shocking things to learn about (also why i stopped asking why won't you just do manual counting -- which i know happens but i also can see the amount of effort)

otoh i'm from a country who abolished local council elections in the 1970s 'because communists'. avert our fate! we changed governments finally, and it only took us 63 years!!
posted by cendawanita at 9:15 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]


From the low information voter file.

Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
posted by mikelieman at 9:16 AM on November 6 [99 favorites]




The Jamestown Machine.

Jamestown N.Y., is known for an assortment of things, chief among them is Lucille Ball and furniture making. What many people do not know, however, is that Jamestown used to be one of the country’s largest manufacturers of lever-based voting machines — the Automatic Voting Machine Co. and its predecessor companies called Jamestown Home for almost a hundred years, from the late 1890s until bankruptcy in 1983. At one time, it had controlled 80% of the mechanical voting machine market. New York City, in fact, used Jamestown made machines in their elections until 2010. There is even a nickname for the Automatic Voting machines among voting machine enthusiasts and collectors. They’re simply referred to as the “Jamestown Machine”.

I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:17 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Once again, my largely white district table had no line to vote, while the adjacent largely Hispanic district table had a line. Id like to think it's because that district's turnout is significantly larger than mine, but they also had half the number of booths to vote in.
posted by davejay at 9:18 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"

I salute your presumed restraint.
posted by jaduncan at 9:19 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]


I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.

I grew up watching my parents use these and I remain deeply bitter that I never got the chance. I know all the arguments and I don't care, Scantron machines are bullshit in comparison and always will be.
posted by enn at 9:21 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


The big difference between (almost all) UK voting and US voting is the length of the ballot.

For example, the San Diego ballot is so large, it's two extra large pages front and back, and requires extra postage to mail.

Speaking of which, if anyone is in San Diego, a plug for a lesser known race that might be overlooked. Please vote for Matt Brower for Superior Court Judge. The incumbent, Gary Kreep, is a creep.

However, Kreep failed to see the impropriety in many instances of misconduct, such as commenting on an attorney's pregnancy and the physical attractiveness of female public defenders, sharing intimate personal facts about his caretaking of a friend, asking a prostitute whether she did it for the money or the action, calling an adult man "little boy,'' unsuccessfully referencing a person's ethnicity and speaking Spanish to litigants based on their surname, the commission's report says.

He's also a birther:

Kreep, who declined an interview request, has been a highly controversial figure, initially due to his pre-election lawsuits challenging former President Barack Obama's citizenship. Obama was born in Hawaii, but Kreep has continued to question Obama's birthplace in more recent media interviews.

So please vote against the kreep creep.
posted by zabuni at 9:21 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]


serious question from non-US mefite. What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?' I mean in that level of low info do they even know he is meant to represent the GOP?
posted by Wilder at 9:23 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


A volunteer group I belong to (not specifically about politics) is about 98% Millenials and younger, and they have been passing along on-the-spot voting tips on the slack channel all morning long. Go Millenials!
posted by maggiemaggie at 9:23 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"

"President Trump is not running for reelection this year."

I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.

This is where I restate my proposal to supply every polling location with a lever that does nothing but make a loud, satisfying kerchunk noise when pulled. After you vote, you are allowed to pull it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:23 AM on November 6 [67 favorites]


"This is a mid-term election. The presidential election isn't until 2020."
posted by Autumnheart at 9:24 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


For example, the San Diego ballot is so large, it's two extra large pages front and back, and requires extra postage to mail.

the oakland ballot is four pages, three of them front and back, and, once placed in the envelope, can be used as an improvised cudgel for self-defense
posted by murphy slaw at 9:24 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"

“You can write him in for every office. Just to be safe.”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:24 AM on November 6 [84 favorites]


Faint of Butt--I heartily endorse your statement. And I think they should have it in a little booth with a curtain so you can take a selfie. (Baltimore City had a selfie station set up this year! I suggested it to my county BOE too for next year.)
posted by sperose at 9:25 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


serious question from non-US mefite. What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?'

I stuck with objective reality. "He's not running this election."

And kept it to myself until the voter had left.
posted by mikelieman at 9:28 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I stuck with objective reality.

bold move, no telling if that would cause a trump voter to enter a furious rage
posted by murphy slaw at 9:29 AM on November 6 [59 favorites]


For those curious about the old mechanical voting machines, here is a how-to from NYC using one variety of them.

The ones I'm more familiar with were a little bit different -- you'd walk up to an open curtain, and then pull the big lever to close the curtain and get the machine in its READY TO READ state. Then you'd do your voting and when you pulled the big lever back the other way, that would record your vote and open the curtain again.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:29 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


FYI for those who don't know, California is really weird when it comes to allowing ballot questions, so there are always 20+, resulting in a long ballot. Massachusetts only has 3 questions this year, which is typical.
posted by Melismata at 9:29 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Nicole Lafond (TPM): Retiring Rep. Issa Calls It Early: There Will Be A Dem Representing My District
“My district was never in play this cycle. And so it was never funded and quite frankly we know the results already and there will be a Democrat representing La Jolla to Solana Beach for the first time in a number of years,” he said.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:29 AM on November 6 [37 favorites]


ELECTION CAKE NEWS: Salmonella outbreak, tests spur recall of Duncan Hines cake mixes

It took me way too long to realize this wasn't a headline about Duncan Hunter.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:29 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]


I voted this morning in sunny Alameda, CA. Three-page ballot where you have to draw in the middle of an arrow to vote.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:30 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?'

"on Epstein's flight logs."
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:30 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]


I would like a voting lever that not only went KER CHUNK but also played a little trumpet fanfare.

Actually my Voting Pony List is like this:

1. Abolish Electoral College
2. Voting is mandatory (with option for None of the Above for the curmudgeons)
3. Voting day is a holiday
4. Everyone is registered automatically at age 18 and you can't lose that right, even if you're in prison, unless you give up citizenship.
5. All states use the same machines/setup/rules
6. Early voting/same day voting/voting by mail are in that setup (also whatever other accomodations are needed for less-abled persons)
7. "I Voted" stickers are regional, so you get a special one depending on where you voted (like stamps!)
8. Voting machines for in-person voting have paper backups.
9. Local businesses are encouraged to set up food trucks and other popup vending outside polling places becuse voting should be fun.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 AM on November 6 [100 favorites]


Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.

It means your ankles are plotting against you - a rebellion in the body politic!

Regarding my photo of the British voting machine, I do take the point that the American system is very different and so the forms we're faced with in each country are different too. What I really had in mind, though, was the delightful simplicity of voting with a stubby pencil on the end of a string, as against the needlessly complicated (and often unreliable) technology used elsewhere in the world.
posted by Paul Slade at 9:40 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


[A few comments deleted. For those of you arriving from an alternate dimension in which US politics are sane and low-stakes and subject to conventional wisdom: greetings, please enjoy learning about this current place we find ourselves.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:43 AM on November 6 [139 favorites]


I’m kicking the site a few extra bucks today due to the shit the mods are having/going to deal with. Thanks for giving us a sane place to be today, mods.
posted by greermahoney at 9:46 AM on November 6 [62 favorites]


If Ds have a good day in Nevada, it will be in large part thanks to these guys.

@Culinary226
The Culinary Union has registered over 10,300 Culinary Union members & their families to vote since the last presidential election & w/Citizenship Project & @YvannaCancela helped over 650 immigrants become American citizens this year. http://bit.ly/2yQMnL4 #GOTV 🗽 🇺🇲 🗳
PIX OF MEMBERS VOTING
posted by chris24 at 9:47 AM on November 6 [54 favorites]


Checking in as a pollworker in Tucson, AZ. We’ve been steady since we opened at 6am. So many more people in our registry book are now early voters. Lots of inactive voter coming in, too (I believe you reach inactive status by not voting in the last two federal elections, you don’t get purged from the rolls, but you get a little IA next to your name). Looking forward to catching up with the thread at lunch.
posted by lizjohn at 9:50 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


What I really had in mind, though, was the delightful simplicity of voting with a stubby pencil on the end of a string, as against the needlessly complicated (and often unreliable) technology used elsewhere in the world.

I would point back to GCU Sweet and Full of Grace's comment earlier -- the voting technology here in American is needfully complicated.

A 'simple' pencil is easy on the voter when there are a few options, but when you have a lot of options it gets very, very hard on the recorder to accurately and quickly read and confirm those preferences. Which is to say: pencil marks become unreliable as the number of individual choices on a given ballot increase. They're unreliable in different ways than, say, touchscreens (which can fail; a pencil can't lose power), but they're not a guarantor of accuracy (peoples votes not being counted due to reader error isn't all that different than their votes not being counted due to a power outage; it's the counting that counts).

This isn't to say that there isn't a lot of insufficiently reliable, overly complicated voting platforms in use, but replacing those systems with pencils wouldn't solve any problems and, while simpler, wouldn't necessarily be more reliable or less prone to error.
posted by cjelli at 9:52 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


7. "I Voted" stickers are regional, so you get a special one depending on where you voted (like stamps!)

Your electoral fantasies are coming true!
posted by Jpfed at 9:54 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


lizjohn, I've been voting early for a while now, but it was always interesting to see all of the "early ballot" next to names in the book when they'd look me up. It seemed to grow every year. Do "inactive" voters get to cast a ballot? (Tucson represent!)
posted by azpenguin at 9:56 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.


We had them until about ten years ago. I miss that noise too.
posted by octothorpe at 9:58 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]




The arguments against hand-counting would be more compelling if the scantron machines were not so bad. They are apparently breaking down all over NYC today. At many polling places the majority of the machines are broken.
posted by enn at 10:03 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


But optical answer sheets - aka scantron - is a simple technology. It's the machine vision version of hand-counting. I'm extremely pro optical counting.

Not surprised NYC's are broken, but lbr that's more a function of NYC than the technology.
posted by juice boo at 10:08 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]


NYC's machines are getting at least double their usual use - when i voted at my polling place in BK this morning i had to (however briefly) wait in line because one of the scanners wasnt working AND because of our extra-long ballot this election scan both sheets of my ballot separately, as though they were two different single-page ballots).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:10 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Currently standing in a line out the door to vote in Nashville, just made it past the 100ft electioneering sign.

Update: Took about 80 minutes in line to vote. Also a pollworker told me that she thought she would be working 6a-9p today if the lines held up into the evening. Thank your pollworkers!
posted by ghharr at 10:11 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]


I mean, you can blame New York, but a technology is not reliable if it's not reliable under actually-existing conditions. You can make any system work if conditions are perfect; in practice they won't be, and that's where the difference in reliability becomes apparent.
posted by enn at 10:13 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Scantron ballots, when scanned into a lockbox is fully auditable. I like that.

Down machines are a showstopper, and we should have N+1 machines just too carry the load when one goes down. That costs money.
posted by mikelieman at 10:13 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


NYC's machines are getting at least double their usual use - when i voted at my polling place in BK this morning i had to (however briefly) wait in line because one of the scanners wasnt working AND because of our extra-long ballot this election scan both sheets of my ballot separately, as though they were two different single-page ballots).

According to various liveblogs I've been checking, it's these factors (high turnout + two sheets per person), plus the sheets sometimes jam the machine when they're not torn apart cleanly, plus it's been pouring rain and some people's ballots are wet which the machines also do not like. It's kind of a perfect storm of issues here.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:14 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


It's important to note that voting equipment varies wildly by state.

Even within the state, depending. My county in Virginia, Arlington, has our own electoral board responsible for processing our local elections as well as whatever state and federal level questions there are. They have to hew to Virginia law but have a lot of flexibility for how they do things. When the VA government passed a law prohibiting acquiring any more touchscreen equipment our election board supervisor declared she would be using the ones they still owned until they could no longer be repaired and would supplement them with optical scan gear they would run in parallel as needed. Some other regions honored the spirit of the law and just switched over at that find. Arlington didn’t until the state legislature mandated it.
posted by phearlez at 10:18 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I am very concerned that my district (MN-8) is going to go from D to R. Our incumbent Rick Nolan retired after beating a tea partier in 2012 then winning two squeakers in a row.
posted by soelo at 10:18 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


soleo - as a Mac alum ive kinda barely been keeping an eye on Joe Radinovich even though i didnt know him. . . looking at the 538 tracking it seems like the race was close until mid october and its just turned into a runaway since then. what gives?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:22 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I think this Saturday Night Live spoof midterm ad speaks for many of us today.
posted by orange swan at 10:23 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I just tossed up a reminder to my axe throwing league (which happens tonight) to tell people that they need to vote before they show up probably because it will run past 8pm (when polls close).
posted by sperose at 10:25 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


When the VA government passed a law prohibiting acquiring any more touchscreen equipment our election board supervisor declared she would be using the ones they still owned until they could no longer be repaired and would supplement them with optical scan gear they would run in parallel as needed.

Huh. I wondered why they still had those cursed touchscreen things in Arlington; some friends were telling me they had to use them in 2016. They seem to have chucked them all in Fairfax County, in favor of the scantron-style readers. Good fucking riddance. Pity they'll never be able to claw back the millions they probably handed those Diebold assholes, though.

The scantron systems seemed to work fine, and this year they had lots of pens sitting around. In the past they didn't (or people wandered off with them), leading—I can only imagine—to people using their own which probably don't scan as well. Any black ballpoint should work fine, but who knows what people drag out of their purses/pockets if they can't find one on the table.

The most amusing part of voting, for me, is that we do it in an elementary school cafeteria so you actually do the ballot-filling-out seated at slightly undersized tables. I felt like André the Giant must have felt on an average day at McDonalds.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:26 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I am very concerned that my district (MN-8) is going to go from D to R.

Statewide MN is most likely to flip two R's to D's and flip one D to R for a net +1 for D. You are however quite right that you are in the predicted D-to-R district. There's a reason why the MAGA rallies are up there. If I had to guess why the dynamic is what it is, the one word I'd use is Taconite.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:27 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Fun fact about the Jamestown Machines: the sleeve art for the first 10,000 Maniacs EP is a photo of Jamestown Machine employees.
posted by pxe2000 at 10:28 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Potential explanations for late changes in MN08:

Stauber got in trouble for using government email wrong (of course). Tina Smith pulled away in the polls around the same time, though, so probably this isn't it.

Local targeted ads look like scenes from horror movies, complete with shakycam and fake-digital distortion. We're pretty civic minded as a whole up here, and these hamfisted attempts at stirring up fear of our neighbors might just be backfiring.

Once people start paying attention, they make the right choice. (I'm going with this one).
posted by dbx at 10:29 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I had to wait about an hour to vote here in Brooklyn. There were two bottlenecks. One was that each election district only has one physical poll book that must be signed individually by each voter, and my ED was just slammed for some reason. (My entire ED is composed of 8 blocks, so I'd guess ~3000 people tops?) The other bottleneck was at the scanners, of which there were three, all in good working order. The polls weren't understaffed and there weren't any technical issues. I'm really looking forward to seeing the turnout numbers tonight.
posted by phooky at 10:29 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


It's not just ballots that benefit from good design.

Design college pitched in to bring order to polling-place signs - Marianne Combs, Minnesota Public Radio
The signs are the result of a collaboration between the city of Minneapolis and the Minneapolis College of Art and Design. They're meant to make the voting process easier to understand and more efficient.
They reflect a consistent design with decisions made to enhance readability (e.g. no signs on pink or green paper, no crowding of words, consistent sign size). Creative Commons licensed and downloadable at https://mcad.edu/votingsigns.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:31 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]


I GOTV canvassed this weekend for the first time in IL-06 for Casten. Despite a mild social anxiety-induced panic attack, and meeting some obviously canvassing-fatigued residents, I knocked on about 30 doors and got 4 vote plans (or in a couple cases established that they'd already voted). I don't know that I'd be excited to do it again, but it feels good in retrospect.
posted by onehalfjunco at 10:32 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]


I just discovered one of my favorite poets, Tony Hoagland, passed away in October, from pancreatic cancer. In his honor, I share with you a poem of his that I sent to my friend two years ago this month, after the 2016 elections. My friend was distraught at Trump's victory and was teetering on the cusp of a terrible hopelessness. The poem helped.
posted by Aubergine at 10:33 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Matt Pearce of the LA Times is at the Dodge City polling place that became a national story once it moved to a remote area. The photo in his first tweet is from today, before he knew the county wouldn't let media take photos inside the expo center. Doesn't look very busy considering that it's the sole polling place for 13,000 people.
posted by gladly at 10:34 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


mikelieman: Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Pussy grabber listed?"

As a death-eater who has been on the Trump/RNC email list for the past two years I can address this: I've had at least 5 separate emails from Team Trump/RNC/GOP in the past 48 hours that explicitly say,
Make no mistake: I AM ON THE BALLOT TODAY.
...
Signed,
Your President,

Donald J. Trump
President of the United States
Vote today for education, reading comprehension, and our children's futures.
posted by carsonb at 10:36 AM on November 6 [76 favorites]


Oregon's latest (last?) batch of early ballot counts are up: OR Ballot Count PDF

1.35 million ballots were returned through yesterday, which is 48.9% of the 2.76 million eligible voters. This compares to 1.58M / 61.7% at a similar point in the 2016 election and to 1.09M / 50.2% in the 2014 midterms. Oregon's automatic voter registration went into effect at the start of 2016, so it seems like a pretty big jump in midterm turnout, even with the slight drop in percentage, once you take into account the influx of a bunch of previously unregistered voters. (PDF of historical data if you're interested)

Democrat ballot returns are at 592K / 60.2% vs 422K / 59.4% for Republicans. I think this is a good sign -- my understanding (though I don't have data to back it up) is that in the past few elections Republicans have had better turnout percentages but Democrats have won through their voter registration advantage. Should hopefully help Kate Brown, though it's not clear A) how many moderate Dems Knute Buehler is going to peel off and B) which way those newly registered nonaffliated voters are going to break. I also think it indicates that Measure 106 (ban on public funding for abortion) is going to go down in flames. Measure 102 (allowing public bonds to finance private affordable housing) had bipartisan support when referred from the legislature and will probably pass. I don't think party registration is necessarily indicative of how 103 (ban on taxing groceries), 104 (requiring 60% supermajority for revenue raising other than tax hikes, such as fees and removing tax breaks), and 105 (repeal Oregon's sanctuary law) are going to go. 105 is the measure my progressive friends are most nervous about.
posted by bassooner at 10:37 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


It was pouring here in DC's Ward 4, which just meant the people who were there, were there.

I've been here ten years and I'm still blown away by how simple our ballots are compared to California's.
posted by aspersioncast at 10:38 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


One thing I think we'll do next election is swap our "VOTE" yard sign for a "VOTE EARLY" sign. And I think this is a strategic shift the Democrats need to work on for 2020. There must be thousands of voters who intend to vote on Tuesday, arrive at the polls and see a long line, and conclude they don't have time for that in their busy day. And that's totally reasonable -- it's a work day and people may be able to take 20 minutes but not 80 minutes. So assuming the problem of lines is not solved in 2020, and may be even worse, we've got to get more people to the polls early. It's great to drive potential voters to the polls on a Tuesday, but equally good would be pushing everyone who can to vote early and make it easier for the low-info, low-free-time Tuesday voters to successfully vote.
posted by chortly at 10:42 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Same-day registered and voted in Illinois. The lady registering me knew the folks that we bought our house from. City of Neighborhoods indeed.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:45 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Make no mistake: I AM ON THE BALLOT TODAY.

Picture via google for your confusion/enjoyment/astonishment.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:48 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]




Long Lines to Vote Are a Sign Democracy Isn't Working - Katherine Krueger, Splinter News
High voter turnout is good! But long lines are actually quite bad; they’re a massive, blinking red sign that democracy is not working. We need to make it as easy for people to vote as possible, so people without to luxury to do so aren’t forced to be late to work, parents aren’t forced to make childcare arrangements, and the elderly and people with disabilities aren’t forced to contend with standing for long periods of time. Long lines are a sign of dysfunction—a sign that, for instance, the funding wasn’t there to hire more poll workers or get more voting machines.

[The] New York Times’ Upshot blog detailed on Election Day 2016, [how long] lines depress future election turnout.

Lines are not something to be celebrated. They’re our last sign, before the results come in, of all the systemic barriers this country imposes on people trying to exercise their civic duty. Celebrate people wanting to engage and change our political system, not the physical manifestation of how badly our government wants to discourage them from doing so.
Emphasis mine.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:51 AM on November 6 [82 favorites]


For those claiming paper ballots are unworkable, here's the front of a Minnesota ballot. (scroll down a bit into that thread to see the back side with all the judicial races. There have been past ballots with even more races.) It's really not an onerous process.

-Fill in the bubbles (pen is fine)
-feed into the optical scanner on your way out.
- paper ballot is retained for recount <--this is probably the most important feature. See Franken/Coleman or Dayton/Emmer for two recent examples of where this has worked

it doesn't take very long to fill out. The check in/same day registration station is usually a bigger choke point than the wait for an empty booth station
posted by cnelson at 10:52 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


>> we've got to get more people to the polls early. >>

There is one day to vote in my state, if one is not in need of an absentee ballot. No mail voting, no early voting. Today is IT. So what about us? I'd love a push for more options along with unfucking/de-gerrymandering the districting. In the meantime, don't forget the elaborate state by state differences.
posted by cage and aquarium at 10:54 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Billy Rubin: Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.

It obviously means that the blue in your outfit is way outnumbering the red, and the red is being stepped on. It doesn't get much clearer than that.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:59 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Philadelphia City Council has some new concepts for "I Voted" stickers.

One of those should be "I voted: ✓41-33"
posted by cmfletcher at 11:00 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Several years ago, Ohioans got to vote on their preferred "I Voted" sticker in an online poll. Luckily we did not end up with a Boaty McBoatface sticker, but got instead one that says "I [red heart-esque silhouette of the state] Voting."
posted by zakur at 11:00 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


surely you meant to say Votey McVoteface
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:01 AM on November 6 [84 favorites]


I voted this morning in sunny Alameda, CA. Three-page ballot where you have to draw in the middle of an arrow to vote.

Forgot to mention my vote was slightly delayed because the person in front of me walked off with the Official Voting Pen. And then I walked off with the pen after I voted.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:01 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Many Pittsburghers are rocking these special "Stronger than Hate" voting stickers.

I did not get one of those, or any sticker at all, at my polling place, so my son made me a post-it note, which I am proudly wearing.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:01 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]


From Wired -- Alert: Track Election Day Misinformation Right Here
Facebook Blocks More Accounts on the Eve of Elections
Late Monday night, Facebook announced it had identified dozens of accounts on Facebook and Instagram that “may be engaged in coordinated inauthentic behavior” after US law enforcement alerted the company to some online activity they believe might be linked to foreign entities.
...
Customs and Border Patrol Plans, Then Cancels, a Controversial Show of Force
There’s no outright deception here, but plenty of room for misunderstanding. On Monday, the CBP announced that it would engage in a “mobile field force demonstration,” showing off its crowd control expertise—in a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood in El Paso, on Election Day. After civil rights groups expressed concerns that the exercise could double as voter intimidation, the Texas Civil Rights Project confirmed that CBP called it off an hour before the scheduled start time.
Emphasis mine, because WHAT THE FUCK. "Yeah, we'll just do a little Show of Force in this Hispanic district. Oh, it's election day? Hmm, didn't realize that, sorry everyone!"

(I couldn't stay away from this thread!)
posted by filthy light thief at 11:03 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Forgot to mention my vote was slightly delayed because the person in front of me walked off with the Official Voting Pen. And then I walked off with the pen after I voted.

Nooooo!! I went through poll worker training in Alameda and they are only sent 20 PENS to last the whole day! #vote #butgivebackthepen
posted by greermahoney at 11:04 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I'm not sure if it's a bigger or smaller lift than a new Voting Right Act, but we need a universal ban on anyone holding whichever state or local office puts them in charge of election administration while also running for office in that election. It's the most blatant conflict of interest imaginable and there's no reason to let anyone duplicate Brian Kemp's corruption ever again.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:05 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]


For those claiming paper ballots are unworkable, here's the front of a Minnesota ballot.
...
-feed into the optical scanner on your way out.


To avoid confusion here, I don't think anyone is claiming paper ballots per se are unworkable if you're optically scanning them, rather than hand-counting them. But that's not how elections in the UK work, and the point of comparison that was brought up was 'why doesn't America vote like in the UK?' Optically scanning ballots -- which is a great system! -- is unlike the UK's system, which involves dropping each single ballot into the one applicable box. That kind of sorting, where each ballot maps 1:1 onto a vote, is literally impossible with the Minnesota ballot (and most American ballots). Having a paper trail and a paper ballot? That's great. Having the UK's simplicity? Not possible without major changes to how we create ballots and what we vote on.
posted by cjelli at 11:07 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Nooooo!! I went through poll worker training in Alameda and they are only sent 20 PENS to last the whole day! #vote #butgivebackthepen

At my polling place the pens were rubber-banded to the tables. Made it a little awkward to fill in the circles, but at least the pens couldn't walk away.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:08 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I find the stickers a little patronizing.

I understand that other people don't feel this way.

posted by aspersioncast at 11:11 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]


WaPo: Women have started putting ‘I voted’ stickers on Susan B. Anthony’s tombstone.
posted by Hypatia at 11:12 AM on November 6 [67 favorites]


Me too aspersioncast.
posted by Melismata at 11:13 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I understand that other people don't feel this way.


We couldn’t fit that on a sticker.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:13 AM on November 6 [57 favorites]


There were 21 judicial races on my ballot this morning. I'm ashamed to admit I was only able to bone up on ten of them prior to the election. I left the others blank, but for all but one of those, there was no opponent to the incumbent. I was unable to find information on all the races in one place, but next time I will start earlier on that part of the election so I don't ever have to leave a choice blank again.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:14 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


If Dems get any trifectas that they didn't have before, a very high priority for the legislative calendar needs to be to make voting as easy as possible. For example, in AZ, that would mean getting rid of the "ballot harvesting" law, standardize voting equipment across the state, access to track your ballot like what we have in Pima, no voter purging from the rolls without extensive verification and documentation, etc. (The voter ID law isn't going to be easily changeable because that was a ballot measure, and voter approved laws have special safeguards here.) Thing is, compared to other states, we actually have it pretty good here. But it can always be better. There needs to be a nationwide focus on laws designed to stop people from voting.
posted by azpenguin at 11:14 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


“The purpose of capitalism is to allow our society to become better. A culture that opens doors for and nurtures the people we care about. The issues of our time are education, corruption, access, infrastructure, civility and the downstream effects of the work we do.” — Seth Godin
posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6


For those curious about the New York malfunctions, a decent liveblog is available here.

The 'humidity' problems causing malfunctions in NC, mentioned above, are several orders of magnitude more severe in NYC: lines are so long that voters are filling their ballots out while waiting in hour-plus lines outside their polling places, sitting on the ground or using each other as writing surfaces, and getting rained on while doing so, causing the scanners to choke on the wet ballots.

As optical systems go, New York's isn't terrible and usually functions about as well as you can expect, under normal, indoor, not-sodden-with-rainwater conditions. In addition, this year's double-sided ballot is not what the machines are designed to scan. Ballots are printed on pads and poll workers have to tear one off for each voter, but because they're thicker this is difficult, with poll workers accidentally ripping and spoiling ballots and slowing down the line. And then the ballot takes voters longer to fill out, because there are three rather complex proposals with paragraph-long descriptions each. And then paper shards from the torn ballots get stuck in the scanners, and everything breaks, and voters are told they need to put their ballots in an "emergency box" for later scanning or counting, and voters are, understandably, pretty concerned and sceptical about this idea. (It's the standard procedure for when the machines go down, but given the current climate it's easy to see why people are suspicious.)

And this is in addition to all the standard NY election problems, like missing poll books and insufficient quantities of machines at polling places and voters mysteriously purged from the rolls, and a few new problems, like asshole Board of Elections officials undermining efforts to expand translation services for voters by refusing to let the paid translators stand close enough to help anyone. Susan Lerner, the executive director of the non-partisan voting rights organisation that trained the translators, showed up at one polling place "with a tape measure, urging a poll site coordinator and police officer to allow the translators to move into a more visible location. The officer refused to use the tape measure, and insisted that the translators were close enough."
posted by halation at 11:18 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


My problem with voting stickers is that if I wore one in my bleeding liberal area, I'd immediately be bombarded with SO WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR? WHAT? YOU DIDN'T VOTE FOR THE BLEEDING LIBERAL CANDIDATE WHO HAS TOO MANY WACKY IDEAS?? YOU'RE A BAD PERSON!! Voting is very private to me, and I'm not thrilled about advertising about what I believe in. But yeah, I can see why they're important to educate others on how important it is to vote.
posted by Melismata at 11:19 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


standardize voting equipment across the state

By the way, different standards and methods of voting could be a good issue to bust they myth that "local control" is always a Good Thing.
posted by Gelatin at 11:20 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


“The purpose of capitalism is to allow our society to become better. A culture that opens doors for and nurtures the people we care about. The issues of our time are education, corruption, access, infrastructure, civility and the downstream effects of the work we do.” — Seth Godin

posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6 [+] [!]


This reminds me of a conversation I had with my late father back when I was in college and very quickly turning my back on the conservative political philosophy we had shared. I asked him what the purpose of the economy was: should it maximize individual wealth or maximize well-being of the populace? I could tell it was a difficult question for him, but he valiantly tried to make a case for the former as leading to the latter, while I was becoming surer and surer by the day that the two were in conflict.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:25 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]


>My problem with voting stickers is that...

There's nothing on a voter sticker advertising party affiliation, and anyone asking a question like that is 100% breaking the social contract.
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 11:25 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]




By the way, different standards and methods of voting could be a good issue to bust they myth that "local control" is always a Good Thing

But this is on balance a Good Thing, since it makes election results MUCH harder to hack.
posted by OnceUponATime at 11:29 AM on November 6


[A few comments deleted. Let's not have some weird fight about stickers? I get it that we're all antsy today, but that antsiness needs to not turn into grouching at other mefites here.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:32 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]


Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.

Wore a shirt with blue on it and blue socks to work today. Wasn't thinking about the above, but maybe my subconscious was trying to tell me something...

Also, please, please don't let the gerrymanders, intimidators, and gee-too-bad-that-voting-machine-is-broken/voting-place-is-closed folks win today.
posted by gtrwolf at 11:37 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


It's pretty clear that long lines are in the interest of dissuading people from voting, but I have to wonder if anyone's thought about the positive effects of the smartphone.  Standing in line is a lot less onerous when you can watch cat videos and chat with friends while you wait.  It could be a one of the few unalloyed positive knock-on effects of the iPhone.

I'm genuinely interested in the idea, though it lends itself a little too well to clickbait titles on websites so I imagine the answer would get swamped in things like "Can the iPhone Save Democracy?" and other silliness.  Still though, I've noticed it myself when standing in queues that they're a lot less annoying now because I can just yank out my phone and read something.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:41 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Here's more on the cancelled El Paso maneuvers.

Border Patrol cancels El Paso crowd-control exercise amid concerns about voter suppression
EL PASO — U.S. Customs and Border Protection abruptly canceled a crowd-control exercise it had planned near a Hispanic neighborhood in El Paso on Tuesday after critics raised concerns that the presence of so many armed border agents could discourage voting.

The agency had planned to stage a “mobile field force demonstration” Tuesday morning at the Paso del Norte border crossing, in an area adjacent to a neighborhood known as Chihuahuita with about 100 modest homes.

After lawmakers, activists and the American Civil Liberties Union questioned the decision to conduct the exercise on Election Day, Border Patrol agents said it had been postponed.

The controversy flared as voters began going to the polls in a city where high turnout is especially crucial to the Senate campaign of Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the El Paso Democratic candidate challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

CBP and Homeland Security officials rejected allegations that the training exercises had any relation to the election.

But Terri Burke, executive director for the ACLU of Texas, said the timing of the crowd-control exercise was “suspicious,” and she welcomed the decision to scrap it.
posted by scalefree at 11:42 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.
posted by benzenedream at 11:43 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]


The purpose of the economy, or at least any Government interaction with it is to "promote the general welfare".

Since I started carrying my ACLU mini-constitution around it's been surprising to me how many of these kinds of questions can be answered not just by referring to the constitution but specifically the preamble:

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

So if some feature of the economy is NOT leading to the promotion of the general welfare it's specifically our government's job to address it.
posted by VTX at 11:43 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]


Standing in line is a lot less onerous when you can watch cat videos and chat with friends while you wait.

The laws on this vary, state by state. Depending on the zeal/motivations/training level of any given poll worker, phones might actually prevent people from voting, if their use in line gets people kicked out (or if the policy is selectively enforced and used as an excuse to kick certain voters out).
posted by halation at 11:45 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


We have our first winter storm up here in NW North Dakota. Last time I checked the wind chill was at a balmy minus two. Nonetheless, we voted. With any luck this weather might convince a few GOP voters (who have been told again and again that Cramer has this is the bag) to stay home. C'mon Heidi, let's get this done!
posted by Ber at 11:46 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]


I have to wonder if anyone's thought about the positive effects of the smartphone.

In at least some parts of the waiting areas they aren't allowed in some states, as recording/camera devices are forbidden.
posted by Candleman at 11:47 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


My problem with voting stickers is that if I wore one in my bleeding liberal area, I'd immediately be bombarded with SO WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR? WHAT? YOU DIDN'T VOTE FOR THE BLEEDING LIBERAL CANDIDATE WHO HAS TOO MANY WACKY IDEAS?? YOU'RE A BAD PERSON!! Voting is very private to me, and I'm not thrilled about advertising about what I believe in. But yeah, I can see why they're important to educate others on how important it is to vote.

What an intrusive rude-ass question.

"Oh, I voted for Yownbidness, first name Mindya."
posted by leotrotsky at 11:47 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Since I started carrying my ACLU mini-constitution around it's been surprising to me how many of these kinds of questions can be answered not just by referring to the constitution but specifically the preamble

Spotted the non-GenXer.
posted by The Tensor at 11:48 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


By the next election, assuming we have one, I plan on stocking up on a bunch of historical buttons and such to wear just to confuse people.

Not sure if I want the MCGOVERN/SHRIVER button set or the altogether more rare MCGOVERN/EAGLETON one.
posted by delfin at 11:49 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]


One thing I think we'll do next election is swap our "VOTE" yard sign for a "VOTE EARLY" sign. And I think this is a strategic shift the Democrats need to work on for 2020.

I think this is a shift they are already working on, at least where I am. I got phoned/texted/flyered constantly to try to convince me to vote early.

lizjohn: Checking in as a pollworker in Tucson, AZ. We’ve been steady since we opened at 6am. So many more people in our registry book are now early voters.

azpenguin: I've been voting early for a while now, but it was always interesting to see all of the "early ballot" next to names in the book when they'd look me up.

This was something I noticed too, as I was signing the book--almost every other signature space on the page said EARLY BALLOT. And even so it was busier at the polling place than I'm used to seeing.

Tucson represent!
posted by egregious theorem at 11:50 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]




My problem with voting stickers

No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.
posted by adamg at 11:53 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


There's a trending hashtag on Twitter called #GOPVoteBlue. Long-time Republicans self-reporting about how they voted for Democrats this cycle. If you need some cheering up today, that's a good one to read.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:55 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]


Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.

The danger here is that such laws can be used against GOTV efforts. There's a long history where organizers have been charged with felonies for helping people vote, and creating new crimes that can be used to target canvassers is dangerous.

If you go around telling everyone that Democrats vote on Wednesday, yeah that's a problem. But a law like that could also be used by Republicans to to send a canvasser to jail for stuff like mistakenly saying the polls are open from 7am-8pm when they actually close at 7pm.
posted by zachlipton at 11:56 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


It feels like Groundhog Election Day. The same problems arise, usually in the same places; the same solutions are proposed, and all of that mostly gets put away for two years.

What ought to be clear is that were the US a country moving to democracy with third-party observers, this would not be judged a free and fair election. Certain states and certain parts of states would pass, but the basic foundation of a free and fair election is consistent standards transparently applied across a polity, and that simply does not happen in most states. Instead, we see the vestiges of the pseudo-democracy under Jim Crow with which Americans are most familiar.
posted by holgate at 11:56 AM on November 6 [58 favorites]


One thing about the hour+ wait at my solid blue polling place in Brooklyn where there is nothing remotely controversial on the ballot: I am glad that everyone is exercising their right to vote, but all the action here is during the primary, when I was out of there in fifteen minutes.
posted by maggiemaggie at 11:57 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote. They have been keeping their spirits up and passing the time by making sketches, by doing The Wave, and calling the Board of Elections to complain -- one man, Hassam Asif, told a journalist the BoE'd hung up on eight (8) times.
posted by halation at 11:59 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]


@WPXICara: UPDATE: Man arrested for threatening to “shoot up” a Washington County [PA] polling place just charged with felony terroristic threats. Polling workers tell me he became angry when they told him he’s not registered to vote. Allegedly said he was going to return with a gun.

I mean, no, don't do that. Making terrositic threats is bad. But how about same-day voter registration, so you can tell someone "here, fill out this form and we'll get it fixed right now" instead of "go away; you can't vote?" Better for democracy and for not having people make violent threats at polling places.
posted by zachlipton at 12:00 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]


especially in the inland northwest, I'm pretty sure nothing will come of it.
man of twists and turns, thank you for the fantastic comment / roundup on WA state races (I flagged it thusly). This is my first major election in Pierce County and you've given me some ideas about what to hammer on Murray and Cantwell about after we get past today.
posted by missmobtown at 12:04 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


One understated benefit of using scantrons is that pretty much everybody has literally had classes on filling them in.

In my area of New Jersey we've got booths pretty similar to the old style ones, with light up buttons and a little chime, but no lever. And they're not analogous to anything else anywhere in my life. They're like a cross between an ATM and a vending machine, but not similar enough to either, so there's no familiarity, no crossover competency. It's not that you can't figure it out, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it's one more thing that can make voting feel alien and uncomfortable.

The first few times I used an ATM I was monstrously nervous about pressing the wrong button. Same thing the first time I used a Wawa touch screen. Same thing every time I vote because I only do it every two years, so there's no chance to practice.

Anyway if we're talking about imaginary ballot design I've been imagining a chopped up ballot, like if you printed stacks of individual paper slips for each race. So I'd sign my name in the book, get a number, and grab a slip for Senate, House district 7, state leg district 1, Public Question 1, etc. Each slip would be as simple as the British ballot. Then I vote and put it in the box for that specific race.

They're cheap and easy to print, on standard commercial printers. It doesn't require us to trust Diebold or literally anyone else. It could open up flexibility in polling places. (Where I live, if I go three blocks in any direction I'm voting on a different set of races.) They could be read by machine, by hand, or both.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:06 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Anarchy in the UK!

SMH. Took me all day.
posted by petebest at 12:07 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.

As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.
posted by teraflop at 12:08 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


[Couple deleted; the Mitch McConnell photo is from 2014.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:08 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I am getting emails from the McCaskill campaign to go out and knock on doors today. They're specifically looking for Affton, Arnold, and Platte. I'm not real sure what's going on in those areas to warrant the urgency.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 12:12 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


538's Seth Masket has a liveblog post that deserves to be shouted from the rooftops:
The forecast I’m most confident in for today’s elections is that, if Democrats have a remotely good night, Trump will claim that some sort of voter fraud took place in one or several races. This is especially likely if Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress, in which case Trump may make such claims in order to call into question the legitimacy of any new Democratic majority. He’s already hinted at this, and he said in 2016 that he’d only accept the results of that year’s presidential election if he won it. He even claimed voter fraud after he won.

My hope is that various news organizations have thoroughly considered just how they will report (or not report) on Trump’s claims. For those that haven’t, I would strongly encourage reviewing Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler’s piece on how to counter misinformation in journalism. Among the key recommendations in that piece:
Don’t repeat false claims. If Trump claims that undocumented immigrants are voting in Texas, just quote-tweeting him without contextualizing his claims by discussing the evidence or lack of evidence supporting them helps spread the misinformation.

Reduce partisan cues. It’s not enough to say, “Trump says voter fraud occurred, Democrats disagree.” To most readers, that means either side could be right and the parties are just disagreeing as usual. If Trump’s claims need to be debunked, it can be done in an authoritative and nonpartisan manner.
If Trump does make claims along these lines, there’s a good chance Fox News will repeat and amplify them, which Trump will may then cite the next time he repeats his claims, creating a Trump-Fox feedback loop. But other news organizations don’t have to add to that. And they certainly don’t need to lend credence to baseless claims just to appear unbiased.
posted by Tsuga at 12:15 PM on November 6 [84 favorites]


The New York Times dials are back for the House and Senate.

"We expect we will begin around 7:30 p.m. or 8 p.m. Eastern time, after votes have been counted in some early-reporting races."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:16 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I have a real bad feeling about Missouri. McCaskill has been increasingly flailing and desperate sounding in the last week here, it really makes me wonder if their internal numbers have cratered.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:19 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The Dials Are Back

Nope. Nope nope nope nope nope nope.

Nuh-uh. Noooooo. Nüpe.
posted by petebest at 12:20 PM on November 6 [46 favorites]


Huh, I never thought of this. Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.

... when red goes low, blue goes high?
posted by Graygorey at 12:21 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


But how about same-day voter registration, so you can tell someone "here, fill out this form and we'll get it fixed right now" instead of "go away; you can't vote?"

In other words, Minnesota. All you need is a neighbor to vouch for you. "Yeah, he lives across the street from me," is all I had to say to get a young man registered at the polling place.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:22 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


"Hey Chunk! Do the NYT Polls Dial Wiggle!"
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:22 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.

As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.


Probably why places such as the awesome Mohawk Bend in the Echo Park neighborhood of Los Angeles have a "buy one beer, get a second for a penny" deal going on.
posted by sideshow at 12:23 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I voted today! It's my first major election in my new precinct, so I can't say what is usual, but compared to the primaries the turnout was way up: every booth was taken when I walked in and I had to wait a bit before voting. (Still in and out in ~10-15 minutes, though).

-Things that made me smile: a woman who walked in just ahead of me with her teenage daughter who was voting for the first time, the mom announced proudly.

-Like someone else had also mentioned, this was the first time ever that in addition to the usual pack of senior citizens who volunteer, there were some high school students, too. I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!
posted by TwoStride at 12:25 PM on November 6 [45 favorites]


I have a real bad feeling about Missouri. McCaskill has been increasingly flailing and desperate sounding in the last week here, it really makes me wonder if their internal numbers have cratered.

I am breathing into a paper bag forever
posted by fluttering hellfire at 12:26 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


The forecast I’m most confident in for today’s elections is that, if Democrats have a remotely good night, Trump will claim that some sort of voter fraud took place in one or several races. This is especially likely if Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress

Says (or rather, will likely say -- he's already hinted at it) the guy who lost the popular vote by nearly three million and eked out an Electoral College victory thanks to interference by the Russians.

We've argued before whether it's harmful to call Trump's victory illegitimate, but its well worth knowing that in 2016 or now, he wouldn't hesitate to call a clear expression of the popular will "voter fraud." The man is a crook and a traitor.
posted by Gelatin at 12:28 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!

That is too adorable.
posted by maggiemaggie at 12:29 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


He'll call it voter fraud even if it's a landslide. He's already been floating phrases about how Democrats are a wild mob looking to storm the castle, and not, you know, voters.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:31 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Trump had the voter fraud excuse all lined up and ready to go in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose.
posted by PenDevil at 12:35 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Trump calling out voter fraud would be a good distraction from anything else that might happen in the next few days.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:38 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote.

Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!
posted by robotdevil at 12:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Voted in Arlington, VA this morning. I don't think we have a single contested race of any significant consequence on the ballot -- ironic that a "purple" state may very well have the least-consequential ballot in the entire darn country.

Lines were pretty short -- I was in and out in about 10 minutes. They had way more tables than I've seen at this polling place in the past (and way more than I'd ever seen at the much larger precinct I used to vote at in DC).

Everything was done on Scantron, and fed into an electronic reader. Seems to be the new norm around here (and seems like an entirely-reasonable system as long as they have accommodations for folks who can't use this kind of ballot). There was a news crew from Japan filming a report at the precinct.

TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
posted by schmod at 12:40 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


When this day has passed, let us remember to ask why Ivanka Trump is brokering voting machines, made in China.
posted by Oyéah at 12:43 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


Trump calling voter fraud without proof is also causing confusion and paranoia over what is and is not voter fraud - I was accused of voter fraud a couple of times when canvassing and textbanking.
posted by dinty_moore at 12:43 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Gonna run out favorites for the first time since 2016, here. I asked the woman working the register at the grocery store in E Austin if she'd voted. One more door knocked, I guess. Her shift ended at 1300, and she said she'd planned on voting, but apparently didn't know that the nearest polling place (only open since 2016) was LITERALLY ACROSS THE STREET. Like, it's RIGHT THERE.
I've gotten several texts from friends today with either "I voted" stickers, or "I'm going with 5 of my friends to vote!"

Whatever this turns out to be, here, in TX, it looks like it's gonna mean something. Just ask Willie Nelson.

Would you vote against Willie Nelson? Yeah. Me neither.
posted by rp at 12:45 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


I'm pretty sure that's the objective dinty_moore. Basically he's trying to define any and all political participation by non-Republicans as voter fraud.

To the Republicans, Democrats are inherently illegitimate.

I think the article from 2014 Not a Tea Party, a Confederate Party is still entirely accurate. On a fundamental level they really do see themselves as Real Americans and us as, at best, semi-tolerated quasi-foreigners who are permitted to exist but certainly not permitted to have any political influence. To them only a Republican victory is legitimate because, they don't view us as equal partners in America but rather as a cancerous foreign body that must be expelled or at least walled off from all right thinking people.
posted by sotonohito at 12:48 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


I just checked in with the students in my lab. They are all voting AND one of them had registered 250 sorority sisters to vote for the first time - these kids are the 18-21 demographic. YAY!
posted by bluesky43 at 12:56 PM on November 6 [97 favorites]


why Ivanka Trump is brokering voting machines, made in China
In the interests of accuracy, while she has gotten Chinese trademark approval for voting machines, she is not "brokering" anything -- said machines are purely notional at the moment.
posted by neroli at 12:57 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I think every election there's a story about Philly's weird polling places (houses, the water department's testing lab, a hoagie shop, the mummer's museum...) but it does make it really easy to vote. Some of the ones in houses in the very car-centered northeast are there because otherwise some people would have to travel nearly a mile to get to theirs. Mine's probably 500 feet from my house, in the longshoreman's union hall.

If you want to track turnout in the city, someone's doing that here based on submitted voter numbers. So far looks encouraging, extra high turnout by UPenn and Drexel.
posted by sepviva at 12:58 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!


In Philly you sign the thing and then get a sticker saying ready to vote which, in my polling place, you gave to an equally earnest and bespectacled high school girl.

I didn't realize that I had to get the sticker and then give it to the girl, and then the poll worker was trying to give me the sticker to give to the girl, and I was sort of motioning for the poll worker just to give the darn sticker to the kid herself, because I was using my hands to wheel myself to the voting booth.

The earnest girl kind of blurted "No you have to give me the sticker" in the tone of voice that you could hear somebody saying, "No, don't push that launch button in the nuclear warhead silo."

I couldn't stop grinning at her.
posted by angrycat at 1:10 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]


Next few hours are going to be tough...

C'mon America. RESIST!!!

Plz
posted by Windopaene at 1:11 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


I just got emailed again begging people to go knock at 4pm for McCaskill.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:13 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]






So it sounds like the likely result of all the ratfucking in Georgia is that it's going to go to a run-off. Is there anything the rest of us could do to help ensure that the runoff doesn't get rat-fucked?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:18 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I am panicking a bit about McCaskill, too. I'm text-banking for her again this afternoon. It's better than stress eating all the leftover Halloween candy in the house.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 1:19 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Beto O'Rourke is the kind of person and ran the kind of campaign that should be rewarded, especially over a loathsome slug like Ted Cruz. If Cruz wins I'm going to be very disappointed in Texas.
I may even go so far as to mess with Texas.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:22 PM on November 6 [72 favorites]


He’s already hinted at this, and he said in 2016 that he’d only accept the results of that year’s presidential election if he won it. He even claimed voter fraud after he won.

That was Guccifer 2.0's pre-election message as well; the final count of the GRU indictment describes efforts to hack into state election and vendor systems, and to spearphish those who oversee elections. That count is as notable for what it doesn't talk about -- any consequences of those hacking attempts -- as for what it does say.

Seth Masket is right to suspect that the 2016 "rigged by Democrats" playbook may finally be deployed, and also right to suspect that the press is not prepared to handle it well.
posted by holgate at 1:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.

The lack of lines in Arlington is a function of where you live in the county and the time you voted. This photo is from the Central Library precinct in Arlington early this morning. I also did not have lines when I voted at 9 AM this morning in Arlington, just off of Lee Highway. Compare and contrast to the consistent long lines to vote at my former apartment complex in Bailey's Crossroads (in Alexandria), both poorer and browner than Arlington.

I don't see how inequities in polling machines/line time are not a violation of the equal protection clause, to be honest. Long lines are an atrocity.
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:24 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


so uh yeah this seems like it might be a design flaw: USB stick and scanner controls left unsecured and voter-accessible on at least one Brooklyn machine. (I mean, I get why it's unlocked, people have been doing restarts and maintenance all day, but jesus)

Meanwhile in Classic Neurotic New Yorker Stereotypes: most places in the US just have Election Day bake sales, but on the Upper West Side, it's therapy booths
posted by halation at 1:25 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Sadly, a Beto victory is still a **VERY** unlikely outcome.

I'm more concerned with McCaskill, frankly she wasn't a super likely victory either, but she had better odds than Beto, and losing one more D in the Senate (even one like her) is going to hurt. Manchin isn't looking so hot either.

We'll see. The odds were always for the Republicans holding the Senate, the only real question being how big their majority would be. Keeping it razor thin helps.
posted by sotonohito at 1:26 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


So it sounds like the likely result of all the ratfucking in Georgia is that it's going to go to a run-off. Is there anything the rest of us could do to help ensure that the runoff doesn't get rat-fucked?

The problem with the runoff (besides the fact that the whole 50% rule was designed to try to prevent minority candidates from winning state-wide races) is that it eliminates the Libertarian candidate, Ted Metz, who is basically Brian Kemp but pro-marijuana. Obviously, with that platform, Metz appeals almost exclusively to white men, who one expects will go with identity politics and vote for Kemp in the runoff.

I see very little any of us can do about this except hope Stacey wins outright today.
posted by hydropsyche at 1:26 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


YeeeeeeAaah the nausea just kicked in

I just realized, though: if somehow we get killed again, I’m not going to believe it was legitimate. Like I really won’t.

That’s...also scary
posted by schadenfrau at 1:27 PM on November 6 [40 favorites]


Apart from the mindfuckery of Trump repeating a thing until it becomes reality: How credible, to the average American (not just the Fox News-watching Trump loyalists), would all the voter fraud "news" be, though? Especially if many/most of the audience was, themselves, voting for Democrats and aware of the general groundswell of genuine enthusiasm for a lot of Dem candidates? It just seems like a hard sell, if/when/pleasegod there's any kind of blue wave.
posted by witchen at 1:28 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


We have 4 years now to find an opponent for Roy Blunt. Preferably one that will win. (This is true no matter the McCaskill/Hawley outcome)

Where were Dick Gephardt and Jean Carnahan? They didn't come out for this race.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:33 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Manchin isn't looking so hot either.

Much as I hate him, Manchin losing would represent an almost unprecedented polling error. 538 has Manchin +7.7 and RCP average has +5. Morrissey hasn't led in any poll since May.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:36 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Exit polls should be dropping soon! Remember, exit polls are better than real results because they tell you the same information only sooner!!!
posted by Justinian at 1:36 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Election Results Pages from the Secretaries of all States and Territories. All pages linked are unofficial results unless otherwise noted. If I've messed up a time or gotten information wrong, please do say something!

Alabama
polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on area.
Alaska polls close at 12 am EST.
Arizona polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Arkansas polls close at 8:30 pm EST.
California semi-official general election results. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Colorado polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Connecticut Archive of results from past elections, as I could not find a live results tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Delaware polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Florida polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Georgia archive page. Polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Hawaii polls close at 12:00 am EST.
Idaho polls close at either 10:00 or 11:00 pm EST depending on area.
Illinois' BoE does not have a live tracker as other states do, apparently. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Indiana polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm depending on your area.
Iowa has an archive page from previous elections. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Kansas polls close at 8:00 or 8:30 pm EST depending on your location. Sorry you have to look at Kobach's face if you visit that page.
Kentucky polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm EST depending on area.
Louisiana polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Maine has an archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Maryland has an informational page without a live tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Massachusetts Election Division website, which does not have a vote tally tracker. Polls close at 8:00 EST.
Michigan polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 depending on area.
Minnesota archive/informational page. Polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Mississippi archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Missouri polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Montana archive page. Polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Nebraska polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Nevada polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
New Hampshire polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on location.
New Jersey polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
New Mexico polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
New York polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
North Dakota polls close at 7:00, 8:00, or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Ohio polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Oklahoma polls close at 8 pm EST.
Oregon ballots must be in by 11:00 pm EST in most places in the state.
Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Rhode Island polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
South Carolina polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
South Dakota polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on location.
Tennessee archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Texas polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Utah polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Vermont polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Virginia polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Washington ballots must be in by t 11:00 pm EST.
West Virginia polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Wisconsin polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Wyoming polls close at 9:00 pm EST.

Washington DC archive site. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.

It seems that there are already results from Guam, but I am having difficulties finding results sites for Puerto Rico and American Samoa. I was able to find some information about the election in the the Northern Mariana Islands and a results page for the US Virgin Islands.

The jitters have really started to kick now for me. Still recovering from the last general...
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 1:37 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


How credible, to the average American (not just the Fox News-watching Trump loyalists), would all the voter fraud "news" be, though?

It doesn't have to be credible. It just has to be a use of executive branch powers and the headline-grabbing capacity of the presidency without comparable power structures to push back at it. That's one of the problems of strong presidentialism.

As Brian Beutler and Josh Marshall have said in recent days, there isn't any real doubt about which party will receive most votes for House races, only whether those votes translate into a majority. If after two years of organisation and mobilisation and fundraising -- two years of politics as a kind of chronic condition -- there turns out to be no electoral consequence, then what comes next? It wouldn't be a continuation of the status quo, but would instead even further empower those in charge.
posted by holgate at 1:43 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


The Calm Place (NYT link). If you need to chill.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:43 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Autumnheart: He'll call it voter fraud even if it's a landslide.

Not just even -- especially. What he says will come down to his mood. Supposing Republicans somehow pull off a House win, then even in the midst of his pleasure he'll probably make noises about fraud then (remember, that's what he said about Hillary's popular vote lead). If Democrats win reasonably well as expected, he might just complain generically without levying a specific accusation. But if it's a blue tsunami, he'll insist that's all the more reason to shout "rigged!" and he'll do it because he'll be that much more angry.

I think there's a common kind of misconception this will play well to, something I've actually seen as much on the left as on the right: that there's some kind of centralized Thing, a person or group, that counts and certifies All The Votes. That's one reason many people express worry that FiveThirtyEight's basically optimistic predictions must not be taking the many Republican-helping swindles into account (such as suppression and Russian interference). In fact, that site has had some very solid analysis of that stuff, including a scary piece back in April I won't link to. But aside from that, those factors (probably) shouldn't be expected to Change That Thing That Has All The Votes At The End. The factors are mostly baked in already (with the particularly scary exception of outright hacking). We can project turnout because we already know where the suppression will be, what the troll campaigns have been, and so forth.

Seeing more comments roll in, I should amend that to say I don't think anything like a majority of Americans will buy the notion that fraud happened. I'm just saying there's a segment to whom it will sound plausible.

Relating to "fraud", on the subject of what the public thinks about voter restrictions, the mix is kind of interesting: Americans tend to support voter ID by a high margin, but otherwise believe pretty strongly in just about every way of making voting easier, e.g same-day registration (even 55% of Republicans, I think, which probably has overlap with the Republicans who want Medicare for All), extended voting periods, national holiday, etc. I'd call that utopian-minded bourgeoise bias, wherein ID requirements have never felt burdensome at other times in life, but standing in line and such always has.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:47 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


There are already electoral consequences, in the form of massive voter turnout.

It's important to remember that the GOP took decades to patiently and persistently create this situation, and what worked for them will work for us too.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:48 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


I'm traveling, so I voted early in NY. Cynthia Nixon had still been listed as the working families candidate online, but had been replaced with cuomo on the ballot. i wrote her in.
posted by brujita at 1:49 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Iowa has an archive page from previous elections. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Unless I'm confused, which I may be, Iowa polls close at 10:00 PM EST, which is 9:00 PM Central Time.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:51 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Texas polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.

Most of them will be on the 8 pm EST side, because only a tiny sliver of Texas is in the Mountain time zone (although that sliver includes Beto's home town of El Paso).
posted by emjaybee at 1:52 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I feel like that list of poll-closing times would be more effective if the times were given in local time. There really isn't a reason for someone in Iowa or California to need to know when their poll closes in Eastern Standard Time.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:55 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


And let's get it started...

James Lambert (DKElections)
First Dem flip of the night: Lou Leon Guerrero wins Guam's gubernatorial election. The GOP held this office for the past 8 years.
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero
posted by chris24 at 1:55 PM on November 6 [110 favorites]


Florida polls close at 7:00 pm EST.

Most of Florida. The panhandle area is in Central and closes an hour later, as it's 7 pm local time when the polls close. So, Florida will wait until at least 8 EST to start releasing data.
posted by PearlRose at 1:58 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


As goes Guam, so goes the nation!
posted by Thorzdad at 1:59 PM on November 6 [73 favorites]




NEW: An amazing stat given to me by Davidson County Elections Administrator Jeff Roberts just now. Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election. That's massive turnout.

12:30 pm
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 2:03 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


Tucson pollworker checking in again! We’ve stayed busy, and most surprising of all is the number of people who haven’t voted in years coming in to find out where they have to go to vote. They gave us a hotline to call to look up voter precincts, so most voters we send down the street to their precinct.

I just checked Snapchat, and one of my student (college) workers drove all the way up to Scottsdale to vote! And she got back in time for her 8am class!
posted by lizjohn at 2:04 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


"F*ck you Miss Hedwig, I'm going to Guam!"
posted by sixswitch at 2:05 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Voted in Arlington, VA this morning. I don't think we have a single contested race of any significant consequence on the ballot -- ironic that a "purple" state may very well have the least-consequential ballot in the entire darn country.

I would argue that the two items on the ballot looking to carve out exceptions in the tax code are significant but I've got a serious crank-on for what I perceive as the camel's nose in the tent that way. They're going to California us one widow at a time. But at least they're not looking to fuck with the state constitution to limit people's rights.

TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.

I haven't been able to poll work the last four years or so but even in 2008 and 2012 we had long stretches with no lines. There'd be a burst in the morning with the crowd who wanted to get it done before work and come 10a it's a ghost town where there's rarely more than one voter in the room at a given time. That stretches out till around 5 but even then we never had lines more than four or five deep. The biggest bottleneck was the little laminated cards the poll 'book' person gives the voter to take to the ballot issuer; we would forever be having to dash those back over to the folks checking people in.

With in-person absentee voting becoming more and more popular and VA's clause allowing you to do so simply by claiming (no proof required) you'll be out of the county for most of the day for work, I'd wager that morning crush has diminished every election year.
posted by phearlez at 2:08 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Re: Tennessee, if Taylor Swift delivers a Democratic Senate majority I will of course be thrilled, but also, it'd be the most 2018 thing that could ever possibly happen.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:10 PM on November 6 [52 favorites]


I feel like that list of poll-closing times would be more effective if the times were given in local time. There really isn't a reason for someone in Iowa or California to need to know when their poll closes in Eastern Standard Time.

This page lists closing times in Eastern, Central, Mountain, Pacific, Alaska, and Hawaii time.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:12 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I would argue that the two items on the ballot looking to carve out exceptions in the tax code are significant but I've got a serious crank-on for what I perceive as the camel's nose in the tent that way. They're going to California us one widow at a time.

I was trying to explain to my wife why this was bad idea the last time they did this, and now we're going to go farther. They're sneaking tax exemptions into the state constitution under the cover of sympathetic faces. How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever? Really? How many degrees of separation do you need to be from a veteran to never pay taxes again? 1st cousins? Once removed? 10th? Kevin Bacon?
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:14 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Washington ballots must be in by t 11:00 pm EST.

That's incorrect. WA ballots have to be turned in to a ballot box by 8PM on election day, or postmarked no later than election day if mailed. We'll have ballots dribbling in for days, which could make knife-edge WA-08 linger for quite a while.
posted by gurple at 2:15 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


NY voting lines: a picture essay

There is literally no good reason for this state not to embrace early voting, but the State Senate just hasn't felt like it, and the resultant disenfranchising chaos has helped them keep their jobs, which keeps them blocking early voting, so here we are. At least polls stay open til 9pm EST -- of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually let people vote, but...
posted by halation at 2:16 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


538 liveblog posted A Cheat Sheet For The House, by ranking by Democratic win probability, so you can see (and extrapolate) as results come in!
posted by the man of twists and turns at 2:17 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


First Dem flip of the night: Lou Leon Guerrero wins Guam's gubernatorial election. The GOP held this office for the past 8 years.
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero


And if I understand it the first majority female legislature (10 of 15 legislators are female based on unofficial results)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:17 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever?

For people who hate taxes more than they love their spouse this seems like a bad incentive system
posted by benzenedream at 2:18 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.

There are laws (usually against corruption) where citizens can initiate a private lawsuit for public malfeasance and collect a percentage of penalties/fines/settlements, right?

It's not too early to look forward to 2020, and I think a bipartisan Fair Elections agenda is a good start. Is the League of Women Voters or some other group available to spearhead this?

1) Early voting everywhere (ahem, New York), absentee/mail vote on demand without need to show cause (and encourage all your friends to vote early)
2) Email or text confirmation of your early vote's acceptance, as Oregon already does; also notification of any problem so you can fix it
3) Make the Veteran's Day holiday the national voting day. Honor the troops, they fought for your freedom, etc. etc.
4) Motor voter
5) Malicious prosecution suits against Kemp and others prosecuting people for helpign voters
6) Voting rights restored to convicts when they've paid their debt to society

I'm sure there are others....
posted by msalt at 2:18 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


That stretches out till around 5 but even then we never had lines more than four or five deep.

Pentagon City in Arlington, VA, just after 5 PM.

Hopefully Arlington will give Kaine a nice big margin over that racist POS, Corey Stewart. Even if Stewart wins most of the rural counties in the state, I want people to know that most Virginians, by the numbers at least, reject that Confederate wannabe.
posted by longdaysjourney at 2:22 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I was only voter #663 in my Milwaukee precinct just now, which has me a little worried about Scott Walker pulling it off again. But the other precincts that use that polling station had long lines, so maybe I just live around a bunch of non-voters, or people who can't vote until they get back from work tonight.

FELT SO AMAZING TO HELP TURN A RED STATE BLUE AGAIN.
posted by dis_integration at 2:22 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


VA's clause allowing you to do so simply by claiming (no proof required) you'll be out of the county for most of the day for work

"That's how we've voted the last few times," he said from his living room couch. "Please don't tell anyone."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:23 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I recently learned that Florida smashes proposed state amendments together if it's determined that they're about the "same" "topic." So Amendment 9, for example, will ban offshore drilling, and also vaping in the workplace, because they're both "environmental issues." Laboratories of democracy, folks
posted by theodolite at 2:23 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]




How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever? Really?

It's a bit tinfoil-hat-ish, but I'm all the more convinced this is a long-term psyop project because this most recent one (keep the property tax exemption even after selling and buying a new house) smells a lot like the nonsense in Florida where folks get to keep their increase-limited homestead exemption levels even after moving.

As you say, it's using sympathetic faces to get people comfortable with slashing swathes of tax revenues. If these surviving spouses need benefits (and I am not convinced this is such a big and widespread issue to begin with) then the right place to provide them is directly as a result of their loss, not in whacky piecemeal exemptions from paying into the social order.
posted by phearlez at 2:25 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Re: Tennessee, if Taylor Swift delivers a Democratic Senate majority I will of course be thrilled, but also, it'd be the most 2018 thing that could ever possibly happen.

We are never ever ever ever voting GOP together.
posted by The Whelk at 2:25 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


I don't think that the subject of early voting has ever even come in the PA legislature.

Absentee voting is a pain here, you have to apply for a ballot with only a few acceptable reasons for not voting in person and then if they accept your excuse, they send you back a ballot to fill in and send back in. Plus, it had to be received by the county office four days ago to count.
posted by octothorpe at 2:26 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote.

Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!


That's my polling location and my wife just checked in to report that they are in fact handing out slices there right now.
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 2:28 PM on November 6 [37 favorites]


> 538 liveblog posted A Cheat Sheet For The House, by ranking by Democratic win probability, so you can see (and extrapolate) as results come in!

They list my district, NY 23, as a 7.8% chance of flipping, and if it flips, Dems have like a 125 seat advantage in the House. So, not bloody likely, according to them. But there's been barely any polling, and based on the levels of energy and enthusiasm compared to the last 3 elections for the odious Tom Reed, I'm hoping it's a sleeper race.

So how many other races are like that? It's just vertigo-inducing to contemplate the possibilities.

And of course, I'm prepared to be crushed.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:28 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I hate myself for being unable to obsess over these stupid exit poll numbers. This is a bunch of meaningless garbage but I can't stop. Don't be like me, people.
posted by Justinian at 2:30 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Not gonna do the whole exit poll stuff, but this one was interesting.

First Time Voter - 16%

2016 - 10%
posted by chris24 at 2:32 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history, relatively little inflation, and the first hints of wage growth showing up? Pretty goddamn badly.
posted by Justinian at 2:35 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]


Khushbu Shah's Tweets profiling voters in Georgia: Greg Martin [old white guy], 70, is a native of Atlanta. He says the hour and half he waited to vote is the longest he’s ever waited. “I voted for Stacey Abrams because Brian Kemp is an asshole...and misogynistic piece of shit."
posted by TwoStride at 2:39 PM on November 6 [86 favorites]


Laboratories of democracy, folks

Florida also decided to put a polling place in a gated community which required ID for entry, despite being a state where ID is not required to vote. When this was pointed out, elections officials basically responded with a shrug emoji. Stellar work all around, Florida.
posted by halation at 2:39 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


So... I have lots of sources for actual results, but if one wanted to follow these exit polls, where would one look? Asking for a friend.
posted by bcd at 2:40 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I'm watching them on the TV. CNN and MSNBC are both doling them out.
posted by Justinian at 2:41 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


CNN, 45 minutes ago: Facebook removes false posts about ICE at voting locations (scroll down)

"Facebook said that earlier today it removed posts falsely claiming that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were patrolling polling locations looking for undocumented immigrants.

"Facebook says it has also removed posts telling members of both parties the wrong day to vote.

"The company did not suggest the posts had come from outside the US. It’s unclear how widespread the activity is."
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:44 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history, relatively little inflation, and the first hints of wage growth showing up? Pretty goddamn badly.
No one should be believing 'unemployment' numbers after they were officially altered in the way they are counted.
posted by Harry Caul at 2:44 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


I am performing the most potent sympathetic magic I can think of: I'm cleaning house and taking out the trash.
posted by vibrotronica at 2:48 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]


How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history.

I wonder how much of that is because of people working three shitty jobs? The idea that low unemployment equals high quality of life is, to put it mildly, outdated.

I am performing the most potent sympathetic magic I can think of: I'm cleaning house and taking out the trash.

I urge you to also work out something involving blood, ash, and the Republican candidate of your choosing.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:50 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]




Some of the ones in houses in the very car-centered northeast are there because otherwise some people would have to travel nearly a mile to get to theirs.

Having just driven over ten miles one way to get to my polling place, this is funny to me. But hey, that's rural Texas for you. And this is one of the CLOSER polling places. To vote early I would have had to drive about 30 miles to a town out of my way.
posted by threeturtles at 2:59 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I urge you to also work out something involving blood, ash, and the Republican candidate of your choosing.

Hmm, I'm up for it! Witches of MetaFilter, let's talk about hex ;]
posted by fiercecupcake at 3:02 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


I am a Beto voter. I have a Beto sign in my yard, and both my neighbors do, too. I am really happy that he is opposing Cruz, who is Mr. Oily to me.

I have very little confidence that Beto will beat Ted. If it happens I will be grinning until it hurts, tomorrow. However, I am really glad to have him do his thing, and am happy that so many of us are with him. I hope that Ted will feel the sting of a close race, and know that a whole lot of people in Texas do not like him at all.
posted by Midnight Skulker at 3:03 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I don't think that the subject of early voting has ever even come in the PA legislature.

Absentee voting is a pain here, you have to apply for a ballot with only a few acceptable reasons for not voting in person and then if they accept your excuse, they send you back a ballot to fill in and send back in. Plus, it had to be received by the county office four days ago to count.
posted by octothorpe at 11:26 PM on November 6
[+] [!]

Just a small clarification for any expats, the rules for overseas voters may be different in your state than just a regular absentee ballot.

If you are an overseas PA voter it must be postmarked by midnight day before election and received by Friday. You request it via a form, but you can scan/fill out on a tablet w a stylus and email the form back, then once approved download a ballot few days later from the portal. That has to be printed and mailed.

I’ve sent mine in via DHL last two times to make damn sure it got there.
posted by sio42 at 3:04 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


In Memphis, Marsha Blackburn (R-Font Of Evil) went to city breakfast landmark Gibson's Donuts this morning for a last minute photo op with Trump supporter and civic disappointment Jerry "The King" Lawler. Gibson's was immediately subjected to a social media pummeling, apologized, and promised to stay out of politics forever.
posted by vibrotronica at 3:04 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


let's talk about hex

i *still* have my 2017 inauguration binding spell receptacle in my freezer, because i was unwilling to inflict its presence on either the earth or the waters
posted by halation at 3:04 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Interesting thread - number of women running for *state* legislatures way up, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:07 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Re. 2018 vs 2016: we have a winner.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:10 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Final 538 odds:
D Senate + D House: 18%
D Senate + R House: less than 1%
R Senate + D House: 68%
R Senate + R House: 14%
posted by Chrysostom at 3:12 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Any suggestions for livestreams to watch (or listen to) that don't feature coverage of the candidate's rallies? I tuned into ABC's stream on YouTube, but it was Ted Cruz yelling "GOD BLESS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP", so I was like you know what fuck this.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 3:14 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Of the 16% first time voters?

61% D, 36% R.
posted by chris24 at 3:14 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Well, here it goes. I just want to wish all you MeFites good luck. We're all counting on you.< /airplane>
posted by tarshish bound at 3:15 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]



so uh yeah this seems like it might be a design flaw: USB stick and scanner controls left unsecured and voter-accessible on at least one Brooklyn machine. (I mean, I get why it's unlocked, people have been doing restarts and maintenance all day, but jesus)


Not a design flaw. But there is never a reason it should be running and unlocked.

It's an operator error. And one that should trigger a hand count audit.
posted by mikelieman at 3:15 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Nine polling locations in Texas are staying open for an extra hour, due to early-morning opening delays and technical problems.

In other Beto news, please enjoy this sweet picture of Beto meeting one of his supporters, Pamela Aguirre, at the polls. MSNBC correspondent Garrett Haake spoke with her and said it was his favourite interview of the entire campaign.
posted by halation at 3:17 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Just for the record, for anyone tuning in to these elections just now:

As of right now, the 538.com website projections, based on an average of polls that they consider valid, shows the net seat change in the House as +36 seats for the Dems. Dems currently hold 193 seats, so this would bring the Dem total to 229. Only 218 are needed to control the House.

538.com currently projects the Republicans to pick up +1 seat in the Senate, bringing their total to 52. The Dems of course would need 51 (including Independents) to take control, since VP Pence could break a 50-50 tie.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled handwringing and booze-up.
posted by darkstar at 3:18 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Well KY-6 will likely be the first "Tossup" seat to be called. Trying not to watch this and failing.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:19 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


From the Marsha Blackburn doughnutgate article: In mid-September, Blackburn and the University of Memphis both took fire when a video of Blackburn appearing with U of M cheerleaders chanting "Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" made the rounds on the internet before being taken down by her campaign.

U of M quickly issued a statement refuting any notion that the university was endorsing Marsha.


Wow. If I can't trust the U of M cheerleaders, then I must have been forcibly subjected to a timeline in which Donald Fucking Trump somehow got elected by a lot of mouth-breathing Fox News racists from Facebook.

Oh. Right. Well. Let's fix that, then.
posted by petebest at 3:19 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


This is a very interesting chart in the 538 livestream that shows how many seats gain at each confidence level. Like if Dems win all seats where 538 has them 75% likely to win, they pick up 14 seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:20 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


No one should be believing 'unemployment' numbers after they were officially altered in the way they are counted.

Does the US not use the ILO standard U-3?
posted by atrazine at 3:21 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


aspersioncast: "Well KY-6 will likely be the first "Tossup" seat to be called. Trying not to watch this and failing."

Keep in mind KY-06 falls under "nice to have, but not necessary" for Dems. Kind of doesn't fit the template of districts they are expected to do well in.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:21 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Pretty sure unemployment is only counted when you are actively looking for work and can’t find it. As opposed to you’ve given up and/or are chronically underemployed.
posted by sio42 at 3:27 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]




When they write the books about the failure of the American experiment Mitch McConnell will feature prominently.
posted by East14thTaco at 3:28 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Keep in mind KY-06 falls under "nice to have, but not necessary" for Dems.

True, but it could be one signal of a good night for Democrats.
posted by booksherpa at 3:29 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Chrysotom's link didn't quite work for me because it's going to the middle of a page that has so much content, continues to load, just generally a mess. So if you want the tool I think we're talking about, do an in-page search for "Cheat Sheet For The House" on the FiveThirtyEight live update page.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:30 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Polls in Monroe County, Indiana (home to Bloomington and Indiana University, and one of only four counties in Indiana to go for Clinton in 2016) to remain open an extra hour in response to ballot shortages earlier in the day, although ballots cast during that hour will be provisional until a judge can rule on them.

Early voting was way up over previous midterms, how could election officials not be prepared for the same on election day???

Meanwhile, hours were not extended in Johnson County, Indiana (mostly Indianapolis suburbs, and in which Trump had a 42%(!) margin over Clinton in 2016), despite issues with voter check-in which had some people waiting nearly 3 hours to vote.

No one should have to wait more than 30 minutes to vote. That includes time for check-in and any pre-voting necessaries. 30 minutes from the time a voter gets in line until they get to a voting machine.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:31 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Might be a delay in calling the Texas Senate race, among others:

I am fine with that. Give people that extra hour chance to vote. Harris County has, I hear, been having some issues with voter suppression; I'm all in favor of opening up access even if it means I stay up a little bit later tonight.
posted by sciatrix at 3:32 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Sorry about that!

Current turnout projections may have us exceeding 48.7%, a record that has stood since 1914.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:32 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Your KY-6 anecdotal update: my immediate family went 3-2 for McGrath. I thought my single issue NRA dad might forget to put his absentee ballot in the mail (they're on vacation all week) but mom said "unfortunately he remembered, I wasn't going to remind him".
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:33 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


InTheYear2017, this link to the PDF version of the whole spreadsheet might help.
posted by booksherpa at 3:33 PM on November 6


In Missouri, suburban Kansas City, and got home from voting about an hour ago. This is a tiny, 850-person, middle-class lake community. Maybe six people voting at 4PM, but that's pretty much exactly how many people were there midday 2016.

We have an anti(partisan)gerrymandering amendment on the ballot; I would be very happy were it to pass. If I were an uninformed, naive voter, from the way it's worded I'd think "what's not to like?" So I'm a bit hopeful, given what this electorate probably will be like.

We've got three seperate medical marijuana ballot issues, which I fear will split the votes and all will fail.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:36 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


When they write the books about the failure of the American experiment Mitch McConnell will feature prominently.

In an unflattering comparison to President Hindenburg, Christopher R. Browning had this to say about Mitch Fucking McConnell:
If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell. He stoked the hyperpolarization of American politics to make the Obama presidency as dysfunctional and paralyzed as he possibly could. As with parliamentary gridlock in Weimar, congressional gridlock in the US has diminished respect for democratic norms, allowing McConnell to trample them even more.
Yup, "Gravedigger of American Democracy" works for me.
posted by chappell, ambrose at 3:48 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


Pretty sure unemployment is only counted when you are actively looking for work and can’t find it. As opposed to you’ve given up and/or are chronically underemployed.

U3 (official unemployment rate as defined by the ILO) doesn't include "discouraged workers".

U4 is U3 + discouraged workers - don't think they would find a job if they looked
U5 is U4 + marginally connected workers - people who would like to work
U6 is U5 + p/t workers who want to be f/t

When a government says "unemployment" they mean U3 but other rates are also reported.
posted by atrazine at 3:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


First result! Hal Rogers [R] holds KY-05 (Trump 80-18).
posted by Chrysostom at 3:55 PM on November 6


Is it me or is Kentucky counting slower than molasses? What are they doing, transferring the ballot counts to the precinct HQs by horse and buggy?
posted by Justinian at 3:55 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Please don't get excited yet but the numbers for KY-6 look...good. And this is an outside target district.
A county within #KY06 is 100% reporting (it's the smallest, but we have to start somewhere): Rep. Barr won Robertson County by 49% in 2016, on his way to a 22% district victory. Today, he won it by 28%.

39% of Fayette in, McGrath over Barr 60-38. #ky06
Fayette is Lexington and McGrath needs a big margin there, but Robertson Co. is deep Trump country.

Is it me or is Kentucky counting slower than molasses? What are they doing, transferring the ballot counts to the precinct HQs by horse and buggy?

It's you, KY is pretty quick historically. If this isn't called by 830 or 9 there's going to be shenanigans involved.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:58 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Brian Kemp seems to have had a tough time voting today.
posted by just_ducky at 3:59 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


And here we go...
posted by Windopaene at 4:00 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


An observation from SF- the poll workers at my voting stations were a) much younger than past years and b) much better informed than past years, a huge step up from previous experiences. I accidentally screwed up a meaningless ranked-choice thing, and the poll worker who was maybe a few years younger than me very calmly explained what had happened and that it wouldn't invalidate anything. He was very calm, and very well informed. It was a nice change from past years when poll workers looked as if they'd rather be getting a root canal than helping people vote.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:01 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Yes, they covered ranked-choice voting well in our training, even though it was unlikely any of us would be in an area that had it. I was impressed.
posted by greermahoney at 4:03 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Please don't get excited yet but the numbers for KY-6 look...good.

I'm not sure I'd call the results so far "good", more "this looks really close". Which is what we expected, right? An unexpected result would be somebody winning by 5+?
posted by Justinian at 4:03 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I can't find it right now, but there was a reddit post this morning where the person was trying to vote for the democratic candidate and the box next to that person's name would not accept the "X"; the screen fluttered and the "X" jumped into the box next to the Republican's name. He was showing the problem via a video from his phone. Yes, he spoke to officials.
posted by KleenexMakesaVeryGoodHat at 4:04 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


It's a known problem with shitty old touch screen voting machines, it can normally be corrected.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:06 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I mean, good is relative. If she squeaks out a R+9 win early in the night I feel a whole lot better about all the much easier races to come later on.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:08 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Tim Kaine, Bernie Sanders re-elected.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:08 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Yeah, "good" in terms of nationwide outlook. The same way Dave Brat +3 would be good news for Dems.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:09 PM on November 6


The short explanation is that the screen and your finger disagree on where exactly you are touching it. If the names were reversed and you tried to vote Republication the X would appear to jump to the Democratic Party candidate.
posted by sideshow at 4:10 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Voter Suppression in North Dakota Could Be Backfiring on Republicans
On Tuesday, there were isolated reports of tribal IDs not being accepted in one North Dakota county, home to the Standing Rock Reservation. But there are broader indications that the ID law may have motivated Native Americans to turn out in higher numbers, with the tribes printing thousands of new valid IDs in the run-up to the election.

“Voter turnout is very high,” says Matt Campbell, a voting rights lawyer with the Native American Rights Fund, who was at the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation in northern North Dakota on Tuesday. “The tribe has been working around the clock to get people new IDs.” The Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians issued 2,000 IDs in the last week, Campbell told me. “Having seen the disenfranchising effects of the ID law firsthand, it has galvanized the community to come together and make their voices heard.”
posted by triggerfinger at 4:10 PM on November 6 [76 favorites]


116 of 286 precincts reporting, McGrath has 61%
posted by eclectist at 4:11 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The tea leaf readers right now seem to feel okay about Florida but concerned about Indiana.
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 6


With over half of St Pete/Tampa in, Gillum is +6. Trump was +2.

With half of Pasco Co in, Desantis is +12. Trump was +22.
posted by chris24 at 4:12 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


eclectist, what site has those results? The NYT is still only showing 58 precincts reported. I need faster results!
posted by Justinian at 4:12 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Interesting poll worker anecdote - Here in Montgomery County, OH, the BOE tries to field two Democrats and two Republicans at each precinct to ensure fairness. Well, just days before the election officials said they still need more than 100 Republican poll workers:
What prompted the shortage of Republican-affiliated election officials isn’t clear, said Jan Kelly, the Montgomery County Board of Elections director who first made the plea Wednesday.

“It’s an anomaly this year that we need this many,” Kelly said. “A lot of people just canceled. Longtime people that worked the polls just didn’t return and say, ‘Hey, I’ll work again.’ They didn’t show up for class. They didn’t return our phone calls.”
posted by zakur at 4:12 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


116 of 286 precincts reporting, McGrath has 61%

Also I believe there are 627 precincts in KY-06 soooooo....
posted by Justinian at 4:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]




The tea leaf readers right now seem to feel okay about Florida but concerned about Indiana.

unsourced vague references to tea leaves being read elsewhere are not helpful for many of us.
posted by lazaruslong at 4:14 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


WKYT, Lexington News - but their site's sidebar has Barr up 51 - 47%. I really should let the pros do this, and stick to drinking wine and worrying.
posted by eclectist at 4:14 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


“In Rowan County, Kentucky, Kim Davis (R) — who made headlines for refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses in 2015 — is currently trailing in her re-election race.“ (via 538)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:15 PM on November 6 [48 favorites]


Can I ask a favor? If you’re going to be so wonderful as to give us current status or results of specific races, could you mark the D or R next to each name? I wish I remembered who everyone is, but my memory ain’t what it used to be. Thank you!!!
posted by greermahoney at 4:15 PM on November 6 [68 favorites]


Can I ask a favor? If you’re going to be so wonderful as to give us current status or results of specific races, could you mark the D or R next to each name?

Please also cite - and if possible link to - your source.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:17 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Can you add (D) and (R) for people who aren’t familiar with all the races?
posted by _Mona_ at 4:17 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Ah, it was for Fayette alone, which is still 40% of the KY06 vote, but not all of it. I'm backing away from this machine before I hurt myself.
posted by eclectist at 4:17 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Btw, the Politico results bot tweets out called races. Sometimes it's a few minutes behind, but a good place to see if you missed something.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:18 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Step aside, TSwift: Queen Bey revealed that she's still registered in Texas and voted for Beto.
posted by TwoStride at 4:21 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


"Which is what we expected, right?"

As far as I'm concerned, getting what we were expecting is very good news.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:21 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Georgia: BREAKING: 3 Gwinnett precincts to stay open after issues, by Tyler Estep & Amanda C. Coyne, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Annistown Elementary School precinct will remain open until 9:25 p.m.

Anderson-Livsey Elementary will remain open until 7:30 p.m. Harbins Elementary will remain open until 7:14 p.m.

Polls generally close at 7 p.m.

The extended hours were ordered by Melodie Snell Conner, the chief judge of Gwinnett County Superior Court.
posted by ZeusHumms at 4:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


For cites, here is Nate Cohn's twitter where he conveniently mentions both the optimistic results in FL and the pessimistic results in Indiana in consecutive tweets. Basically Donnelly is getting romped in the rural parts of Indiana.

But I believe the outstanding question is whether the results end up looking more like his election in 2012 or the presidential year in 2016. RCP seems to have based their benchmarks off 2012 but Decision Desk HQ off 2016. I don't have access to the premium Decision Desk though to check.

I'd probably come down on the 2016 side and want to see the margins he runs up in Indy/Gary.
posted by Justinian at 4:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I don't think I have the nerves for this. I'll go somewhere where there's no electronics.

Call me when we won.
posted by growabrain at 4:23 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Looks like Kim Davis's goose is cooked:

On the Kim Davis race in Rowan County, with 17 of 19 precincts reporting: Davis (R): 3118 Caudill (D): 3711

If you have forgotten who Kim Davis is.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:24 PM on November 6 [65 favorites]


No matter the results, the next two years are going to be worse than the last two. If the Democrats take the House (and/or the Senate), the animosity between the two parties is going to be monumental; if the Republicans keep total control of Congress, that will encourage Trump and the GOP to go even further. So don't expect the political climate to improve.

It appears the 18-29 demographic is voting in greater numbers. If they succeed in tipping races toward progressive candidates that bodes well for future elections. If they fail to flip the House or propel favourite candidates such as Beto to victory, we may well see a drop in their numbers in 2020.

In other words, we're still in the middle of a long political cycle. Anyone expecting this to resolve anything is going to be disappointed.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:24 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


In other words, we're still in the middle of a long political cycle. Anyone expecting this to resolve anything is going to be disappointed.

we are aware that things are bad
posted by murphy slaw at 4:27 PM on November 6 [116 favorites]


For informed Florida info, follow Steve Schale and Matthew Isbell.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:28 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Of course this ain't going to improve the political climate. Nothing about that is going to improve before the government has been washed clear of McConnell, his influence, and the Nazis courted by his party--and as there is no evidence that the Republican Party intends to do jack shit about that rot, it's up to the rest of us to rip it out root and branch.

But this will tell us more about how hard we need to fight to hold the goddamn line, and that's important. And absolute worst case, we are making the Republican Party bleed money and stress to hold their ill-gotten gains, and that is not nothing.
posted by sciatrix at 4:29 PM on November 6 [38 favorites]


A plea from the cheap seats: can we please, please avoid catastrophizing or preemptive circular-firing-squad activity in this thread? This isn't aimed at anyone in particular: it's me trying to fend off that sort of negativity, which tends to show up a lot in fast-moving threads like this.
posted by scrump at 4:29 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.
posted by ZeusHumms at 4:31 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I'd probably come down on the 2016 side and want to see the margins he runs up in Indy/Gary.

Lots of people seem to think this is where things are going. The urban/rural divide is amping way up, even more than 2016. So it's possible Donnelly can significantly underperform in the rural districts even compared to his own previous races but still pull it out. Everyone send your energy to Gary and Indianapolis.
posted by Justinian at 4:31 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Marathon, not sprint.

This feels rushed because the media pushes the idea that four hours after EST 6pm on the first Tuesday in November is THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE YEAR, but it's not. It's part of an ongoing, painful process in which we attempt to take back our country from the thugs who've corrupted it.

A massive blue wave today just means "a few steps in the direction we need." A blue ripple just means more of what we've been doing for the last two years.

Hug your children and hone your skills.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:31 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.

My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it will be through having more votes than Cruz.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:33 PM on November 6 [90 favorites]


The New York Times What Time Do the Polls Close? page added a time zone picker.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:34 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.

What does that even mean? Beto hires someone to poison Cruz’s soup? He goes back in time and kills Cruz’s parents?
posted by greermahoney at 4:34 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


For cites, here is Nate Cohn's twitter where he conveniently mentions both the optimistic results in FL and the pessimistic results in Indiana in consecutive tweets. Basically Donnelly is getting romped in the rural parts of Indiana.

Can people, when they're talking about people, add party affiliation after the name? I'm an Old and having a hell of a time remembering who's (D) and who's (R), and including party affiliation allows me to more immediately determine my level of glee or despair.

</hamburger>
posted by scrump at 4:34 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Overperforming in districts that were supposed to be GOP-friendly, I'd think. As opposed to running up the score in cities.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:35 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


He goes back in time and kills Cruz’s parents?

Gotta admit it's a novel way to do the "time travel to save JFK" story!
posted by thefoxgod at 4:36 PM on November 6 [45 favorites]


Like the cockroaches inhabiting the skin suit suddenly decide they aren't paid enough and suddenly slither away, leaving behind a ghastly pile of Cruz.
posted by juice boo at 4:36 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


I don't think I have the nerves for this. I'll go somewhere where there's no electronics.

Call me when we won.


How?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:37 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.

Someone will inadvertently splash Ted Cruz with a bucketful of insecticide, and the ten thousand cockroaches inhabiting his skin suit will fizzle into a pile, Wicked Witch of the West style, crying out in unison, "What a world! What a world!"
posted by Sublimity at 4:37 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


VA-10: Comstock [R-i] loses Loudon County by 17 points. She basically tied it in 2016. Ominous sign for Comstock.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:38 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Kim Davis update (Rowan County clerk who refused to issue same-sex marriage licenses):
with 18 of 19 precincts reporting:
Davis (R): 3234
Caudill (D): 3841
posted by zachlipton at 4:38 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


Some nudges in the 538 real time forecast. Dems now have a 14 in 15 chance of winning the house, with a 42 net seat change. They're also showing no net seat change in the Senate, nudged up from a one seat gain for Republicans.
posted by chrchr at 4:38 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


NBC just called VA-10. Comstock (R) defeated. Wexton (D) wins. First flip. 22 to go.
posted by chris24 at 4:38 PM on November 6 [72 favorites]


Stephanie Murphy [D] holds FL-07, which was Likely D.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:41 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I swear, I am going to have to compile all the metaphors that MetaFilterians have coined for Ted Cruz. From “Mr. Oily” to “Ten thousand beetles in a human suit” to “A skin mask stretched over a bowl of haunted mayonnaise” — each new epithet fills me with glee.
posted by darkstar at 4:42 PM on November 6 [52 favorites]


Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:42 PM on November 6


a walking lamprey in a bad halloween mask
posted by sciatrix at 4:44 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?

Yeah. The results so far are inching the 538 tracker upwards for the House (now around 95%!!) but still hanging around 16% in the Senate. The House/Senate split looks increasingly likely.

Frankly, if you had offered me a devil's bargain yesterday where Ds pick up 35 House seats but there is a net of 0 in the Senate I'd have taken it without a thought. The crucial thing is to get control of one lever of power somewhere in the government. Yes, it would be better to hold the Senate than the House but holding the House is infinitely better than holding neither.
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


10 Pounds of horse manure in a 5 pound bag shaped like a blobfish
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:45 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


> Some nudges in the 538 real time forecast.

Huh... who has a theory why? Seems to me that so far, only high-likelihood things have happened...
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 4:46 PM on November 6


The crucial thing is to get control of one lever of power somewhere in the government. Yes, it would be better to hold the Senate than the House but holding the House is infinitely better than holding neither.

Yes - and we need the downballot races and governorships, too. Even such a tiny win as Kim Davis being defeated is a good step (and if it means that another LGBT couple can get married in that district, yay!).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:46 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Silver talks about that here.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:47 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Huh... who has a theory why? Seems to me that so far, only high-likelihood things have happened...

Because they model a high probability of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. So if the early results conform to what we expect it increases the model's certainty that the later results will also conform.

For example they had McGrath losing by like a point in their model. If she instead wins by a point that is only a 2 point difference but it leads their model to more certainty in a House majority for Democrats because they are winning close toss-ups.
posted by Justinian at 4:47 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


God, I'm honestly sitting here gibbering in frail yearning hope at not the federal House going blue, but at the idea of having an infusion of blue into my state legislature. Imagine the downballot effect on the federal judgeships, or the Lege, or or or....
posted by sciatrix at 4:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


538 liveblog:
Geoffrey, the vote in Indiana’s Senate race looks really bad for Donnelly. Is it?

I increasingly think it isn’t good for him.

It seems like Donnelly will need a lot of help from Indianapolis (Marion County) and Gary (Lake County) to win. That is, outrun his 34- and 41-point margins there, respectively, in 2012.
posted by zachlipton at 4:48 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?

Her district used to be a good bellwether for the nation, but Trump is especially unpopular with so many people who make their living off the government in NoVa that I don't think it's as indicative as its been in the past.
posted by peeedro at 4:48 PM on November 6


Things are looking not bad in the Florida Governor and Senate races.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:48 PM on November 6


I know I'm the downballot guy, but I am rather optimistic about a lot of those races.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:48 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


VA-07: Very tight, which is probably a good sign for Dems. [Brat [R-i] vs Spanberger [D] ]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:50 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Dispatch from Minnesota polls: 12.5 hours in and we have just had the 800th in-person voter. 169 absentee ballots were cast by 5pm yesterday  (more probably came in during business hours today). It has been so busy that people have been filling out ballots on the floor and walls at times. Everyone is generally in a good mood. The sleet turned to snow for a while. I am wired as shit because we election judges have a potluck every year and my colleagues are awesome cooks and bakers of sugary treats. I have no idea whats going on in the outside election world, look forward to catching up with the thread later.
posted by Elly Vortex at 4:50 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


VA-07: Very tight, which is probably a good sign for Dems. [Brat [R-i] vs Spanberger [D] ]

Yeah, I used Brat+3 as the example of a Pyrrhic victory for Republicans and right now it looks closer than that.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:52 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Well the NY Times website appears to be broken, and has been for the past few minutes for me. Loads - but only partially, and does the thing sites do when they are getting overloaded.

For multiple reasons, I am really OK with this.
posted by juice boo at 4:53 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Good signs for NC Supreme Court and legislative power grab initiatives.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:53 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I'm watching the Buzzfeed video feed with their commentators (knowledgable, but not very polished -- it may or may not be to your taste. Less of the Hot Takes, more of the actual events), they have a British man and an American woman (both appear millennial), and the man said, "So the first scalp of the night--" and the woman interrupted and said, "Be careful! Nobody likes it when you say that!" and he said "whoops, sorry -- the first LOSS of the night" and everyone moved on. And I was like YAS BUZZFEED, non-American uses a not-okay idiom, American immediately steps in with a friendly correction, he happily and immediately corrects himself and appears grateful for the correction. It was a tiny moment in passing, and awkwardly phrased, but it was so wonderful to see the woman commentator IMMEDIATELY and totally unselfconsciously step in while live on air, and the man to immediately walk it back without getting angry or defensive. MILLENNIALS ARE GIVING MY HOARY GEN X HEART HOPE.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:53 PM on November 6 [86 favorites]


The Kim Davis result is definitely an unexpected treat.

Can someone give me a short précis on why Donelly is struggling with being re-elected? Is it just because IN is so Red normally, and he was originally elected in a bit of a fluke year, maybe with some of Obama’s coattails in 2008?
posted by darkstar at 4:54 PM on November 6


@Nate_Cohn: I don't see anything that indicates a systematic forecasting error. From here, the GOP just needs a ton of luck. Scratch out 1, 2, 3 point wins, over and over.

Thanks Nate. That's been my tossup district nightmare for at least a week, and you've just vocalized it. Good going.

But yeah, that's why the prediction models are tightening up. Things, overall, appear to be generally in line with predictions. And the predictions still left room for the possibility of Republican control of the House, but it's looking less likely based on these early results that all the models are wildly wrong.
posted by zachlipton at 4:54 PM on November 6


I am wired as shit because we election judges have a potluck every year and my colleagues are awesome cooks and bakers of sugary treats.

How do we roll this out everywhere?

asking for a friend



the friend is me
posted by scrump at 4:54 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


darkstar: "Can someone give me a short précis on why Donelly is struggling with being re-elected? Is it just because IN is so Red normally, and he was originally elected in a bit of a fluke year, maybe with some of Obama’s coattails in 2008?"

Yes. He was only elected because GOPer Mourdock self-immolated.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:56 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


> why [is] Donelly is struggling with being re-elected?

Adding to what Chrysostom said, here's 538: An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnelly’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.
posted by RedOrGreen at 4:56 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


OMG the Flawn voting center at work just came on the local news and there's lines OUT THE GODDAMN DOOR look at all the baby undergrads voting in Texas I AM SO PROUD OF ALL OF THEM
posted by sciatrix at 4:57 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Waltz [R] wins in FL-06, about 57-43. Bit disappointing, this was a Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:58 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


TX polling anecdata: For the last 10 years, I have lived two blocks from my polling location. Coming home from work, we drove by about 6, so one hour left till polls close. The place is packed. I have *never* seen it that full at that time of day on election day. Not even 2016. I would say at least twice the amount of cars in the lot.

I've already told the story, but I was the first voter last Saturday. The poll workers were extremely happy to chat (I brought them good breakfast and lots of coffee) and I asked one of them if they had been busy the prior week. For the first week of early voting, this location only had voting from 9-5. But, still, she got dead silent and slowly nodded her head like, "I have never seen so many vote so early."

I guess we will start knowing a little more in a scant few minutes.

In other news, in regards to the "where is Trump on the ballot" and Trump sending the e-mail saying, "Vote! I am on the ballot!"

I think part of his phrasing is just to GOTV. But, pairing it with literal voters not knowing he is not on the ballot.... I think that was planned so his base can get even more riled up and say "voter fraud! Trump's not on here!" When 2020 rolls around, they won't remember that he shouldn't be on the ballot. They will just remember Trump not on ballot, election stolen, let's go vote.

It's pretty sleazy, but completely the norm for him.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:58 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Does Kentucky have any mandatory recount rules for a very close election?


Asking for KY-6.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 4:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Field report from CA-10, currently having to wait in line to vote for the first time in ~15 years of voting in this district. We had the largest canvassing operation in the country last weekend (so I’m told), for Josh Harder. I am hopeful that we are flipping this district.

FWIW, the conversation around me has a general totally-fed-up-with-everything vibe, hoping that means lots of D down-ballot voting, too.
posted by LooseFilter at 5:00 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


@mikememoli: NBC News: Donna Shalala is the winner in FL-27. Dem pickup

That's a nice pickup and was reasonably expected, modulo some brief anxiety when it got closer, but my question is still the margins. Winning these expected pickups is great, but the path to the House involves not losing all the tossups, and seeing decent margins on the less-close races will help reassure me about the late-to-call tossups.
posted by zachlipton at 5:00 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Second flip. NBC calls Shalala (D) winning FL-27. There was worry earlier in the cycle about this one.

21 to go.
posted by chris24 at 5:00 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


VA-5 called for Riggelman (R). Another outside chance at a Dem pickup that didn't pan out.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:04 PM on November 6


Tom Carper [D] re-elected to Senate for Delaware.

Chris Murphy [D] re-elected to Senate for Connecticut.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:06 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Both Richard Mourdock (Indiana) and Todd Akin (Missouri) couldn't keep their Handmaid's Tale fantasies to themselves (cw: sexual abuse, language) and lost to Donnelly (D-IN) and McCaskill (D-MO), respectively. So far, Mike Braun hasn't tripped himself up with such blatant misogyny and that is leaving Donnelly with a harder hill to climb (we'll see about McCaskill).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:07 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Elizabeth Warren [D] re-elected to Senate for Massachusetts.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:07 PM on November 6 [45 favorites]


Tim Kaine [D - Governor of Virginia] & Bernie Sanders [D - Senator of Vermont] will be returning (handily) for another term each.
posted by darkstar at 5:08 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Ben Cardin [D] re-elected to Senate for Maryland.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:08 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Sheldon Whitehouse [D] re-elected to Senate for Rhode Island.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:09 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Josh Hawley said that access to contraception causes human trafficking and Red Missouri just nods along now.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 5:10 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Charlie Baker [R] is re-elected as Massachusetts governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:10 PM on November 6


Does Confederate States of America candidate Corey Stewart losing to Tim Kaine mean we'll start putting statues of Stewart up all over Virginia?
posted by COD at 5:10 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Illinois media is calling the governor's race for Pritzker (D), which is a flip (incumbent is Rauner (R)), but national media hasn't officially called yet. Illinois media thinks it'll be a "mid-to-high" double-digit win.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:11 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


In 2016, my mom and I polished off 2 bottles of wine watching the devastating returns. I still have nightmares from that night. Tonight I decided to keep it to one bottle and watch my "Concert For George" video while refreshing this page. Just finished watching Billy Preston sing "My Sweet Lord", so I'm good.
posted by sundrop at 5:13 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Mario Diaz-Balart [R-i] wins in Fl-25, about 61-29. Was rated Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:13 PM on November 6


Sherrod Brown [D] re-elected to Senate from Ohio.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:14 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Good news about Pritzker in Illinois. We need those governorships, what with the 2020 redistributing fights just around the corner.
posted by darkstar at 5:15 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


538's real-time tracker has Republican's House odds much improved (currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House)...
posted by thefoxgod at 5:15 PM on November 6


Media counts 110 at Rauner's party - Republican incumbent Illinois governor - and 1500 at Pritzker's; but 4,000 have RSVPed! That's basically Rauner's family and paid staff, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha I hate that guy.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:16 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House

Horse races have to have drama.
posted by zrail at 5:16 PM on November 6


Bob Casey [D] re-elected to Senate for Pennsylvania.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:17 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House

That reflects my sinking gut feeling. The performances in tossup/lean-R races do not feel like a wave.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:17 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I’m sending a picture of my dog wearing her “I voted” sticker in reply to every “Please hurry and vote for the local Democrat” txt I receive today. (Along with a “thank you for making something positive happen today.”) The turner-outers have sure done their part today.
posted by notyou at 5:17 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


I'm still hopeful Dems can at least win control, but the chance of a big wave seems pretty low at this point.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:17 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Brian Mast [R-i] holds on in FL-18 about 54-46, was Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:20 PM on November 6


currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House

1 in 2
posted by avalonian at 5:20 PM on November 6


Sinking feeling as I watch Nelson and Gillum fall behind? Check
posted by localhuman at 5:21 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Holy shit it's going to be a nail biter for Gillum here in FL eh?
posted by RolandOfEld at 5:21 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Now 538 has the Dems as having a 52% chance of winning the house and I just hate myself for even looking at the returns at all.
posted by lydhre at 5:21 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Where are y’all seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.
posted by gucci mane at 5:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


3 in 5. We are now in longshot territory. Again.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:22 PM on November 6


WHAT
THE
FUCK,
AMERICA?
posted by kirkaracha at 5:23 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Where are y’all seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
posted by avalonian at 5:23 PM on November 6


What the fuck? Are people just lying to pollsters?

How do you go from a statistically sound average of a net gain of 36 seats to maybe squeaking out 20?
posted by darkstar at 5:23 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I would caution against reading too much into the real-time trackers at 538: my gut feeling is that those trackers are probably susceptible to the vagaries of piece-by-piece vote reporting. I could be wrong, of course, but I think a little wariness about extrapolating from them is in order.
posted by scrump at 5:23 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


I mean, it was 14 out of 15 half an hour ago but this is absolutely not the direction I want this to trend. I understand it is still volatile but fuck.
posted by lydhre at 5:24 PM on November 6


Holy shit it's going to be a nail biter for Gillum here in FL eh?

Yes, but it was always going to be.
posted by scrump at 5:24 PM on November 6


538 also predicts a real time seat forecast of D+25. It's too early to panic.
posted by Quonab at 5:25 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


538 is currently saying an expected Dem pickup of 20. I will be really shocked if Dems only pick up 20 -- that would be pretty unprecedented for a midterm with a president with such low approval. Stranger things have happened, but it would be a worse polling and general modeling miss than 2016, by a long shot.

[Edit: Now 25. Don't sweat the swinging needle folks!]
posted by chortly at 5:25 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I would caution against reading too much into the real-time trackers at 538

Yeah it's up to 5/7 chance, so there's a ton of variability. Don't rejoice. Don't panic.
posted by thegears at 5:25 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Yeah, in last 60 seconds it went from 60.7% chance of Repub control, to ~40% chance. So don't watch the live polls folks.
posted by sideshow at 5:26 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Where are y’all seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner



Ten seconds ago, my screen there read:

House
4 in 7
Chance Democrats win control (57.2%)
3 in 7
Chance Republicans win control (42.8%)
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:26 PM on November 6


I'm having trouble reconciling the NY Times live results, where it seems like the Dems are doing pretty well, with the 538 real-time forecast, where it seems like my stomach is a dead jellyfish washed up on a beach being picked at by crows
posted by oulipian at 5:27 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Menendez (D) holds New Jersey for the Senate. That's one worst-case scenario off the table.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:27 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


Can we not real time update here the real time updates from 538? I think we just established they are way more noise than signal.
posted by COD at 5:28 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]


Frankly I find it irresponsible to have live trackers based on early results from the east coast while huge swaths of the country are still voting.
posted by zrail at 5:28 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


The needle lies
posted by snortasprocket at 5:28 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Yeah, I think one takeaway for Silver is to make that a little less reactive.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:29 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


From 538's blog, about the real-time forecasts:

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

Breathe.
posted by reductiondesign at 5:29 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


*breathing into paper bag*

Okay. Okay.

Yes, the tracker is totally clickbait. Will not keep refreshing.
posted by darkstar at 5:29 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


[Quit tracking the trackers, my peeps.]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:30 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


NYT forecasts are not live yet. Nate Cohn tweets, “Well. We have issues over here. Don't know when we'll have something.”
posted by mbrubeck at 5:31 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Illinois governor called for Pritzker(D). [edit: missed this above in my search somehow..]
posted by thefoxgod at 5:31 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Based on the counties that haven't reported yet, McGrath will lose. Which is a big disappointment.
posted by JeffL at 5:32 PM on November 6


This time is the margin of terror my friends. Hang on.
posted by nubs at 5:32 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


If you don't like volatility, you can scroll down the 538 page just a bit to the section labelled "Chances of winning in every race". It's a nice couple of charts representing the Senate and the House and the boxes change color as the results come in. No stress, just information.

And yeah, let's stop live tweeting the forecast changes. We'll all know the actual outcome in a few short hours.
posted by great_radio at 5:33 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Forget the live election results. Let’s do it 19th Century Style! (SLXKCD)
posted by snortasprocket at 5:34 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Quick precinct report from Minneapolis 1-3. We have just under 2500 registered voters in our precinct. As of around 6:45 CST. As a comparison, in the 2014 midterms, the precinct had 1566 total votes, out of just under 2300 registered voters. In the 2016 election, there were just under 2400 registered voters, with a total vote count of 2231 (~94%!!)

Mood was good, even when our vote tabulator jammed and people had to wait. We didn't have enough booths, so people were sitting at table filling out ballots and even filling them in up against the walls. Lots of people (many of them older) asking us how turnout was and when we told them it was good, they all smiled and said "Good, good!" One guy in his 50s asked if we were seeing lots of millenials. I did see a lot of younger people, all of whom seemed happy to be voting and taking the responsibility seriously.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:34 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I was going to kind of post this in response to all of the concern over 538's live trackers, which it does kind of address, but it's really saying something wider than that. I still think it's interesting, and if you go and read it, hey, that's 4 minutes that you didn't spend refreshing 538 and panicking. The Great Slate's @pinboard writes about Politics As Sport:
We've reconciled our contradictory views of voting by learning to talk about elections like we talk about sports. Both are now the province of a tiny group of millionaire specialists, with a larger but equally exclusive group of analysts to provide guidance and commentary. The job of a citizen is to pick a team to root for and turn out on game day. It is understood that these citizen-fans will never get to go on the field, but their enthusiasm helps the team and so it is important that they show up.

One thing I like about the FiveThirtyEight predictions website is how it makes the parallel explicit by intermixing election coverage with sports. While it's understood that there's an element of chance in both domains, in the statistical limit, the thinking goes, the outcome of every contest depends on structural factors that can be teased out of the data.
posted by chappell, ambrose at 5:35 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Tom Wolf [D-i] re-elected PA governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I know everyone is watching Florida and biting nails. It sure looks like a lot of outstanding vote in Broward and Palm Beach and still a bunch in Miami-Dade. Don't assume anything until we see those votes.
posted by Justinian at 5:35 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


I know everyone is watching Florida and biting nails. It sure looks like a lot of outstanding vote in Broward and Palm Beach and still a bunch in Miami-Dade. Don't assume anything until we see those votes.

Strongly agree. And it's worth noting that this is coming from the person for whom the JCPL is named!
posted by scrump at 5:36 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Tons of polls aren't even closed, let alone counted.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:38 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Tom Wolf [D-i] re-elected PA governor.

Guess he had The Right Stuff.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:38 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Mr. Silver:
Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.
posted by chrchr at 5:39 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Yes. Still hundreds of thousands of votes in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, and they're breaking 60-40 for Gillum and Nelson. Three counties yet to report in the Panhandle, and they'll go 70-30 DeSantis and Scott, but they're small populations.
posted by martin q blank at 5:39 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


We talked a lot about canvassing by varying means over the last few months. I thought this interaction my friend Ed had this morning in Florida was pretty great and a nice little palate cleanser in these stressful hours.“Martha better get her shit together and drive her punk ass to the polls
posted by phearlez at 5:40 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Gina Raimondo [D-i] re-elected Rhode Island governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:40 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


If you need some relief, R. Eric Thomas brings us An Exhaustive Ranking of 'I Voted' Stickers From Around the Nation
posted by zachlipton at 5:40 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I have to watch this for like, work but I still feel like I’m gonna barf!
posted by The Whelk at 5:41 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:42 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


A bit of good news out of Florida at least: Amendment 4, which restores voting rights to most convicted felons on completion of their sentence, is looking good: 64-36
posted by zachlipton at 5:42 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


If the Dems take the House but not the Senate, I wonder what their strategy will be. At the very least they should do what the Republicans did for Obama and stall everything Trump tries to do that they can.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:43 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


if Beto wins that will be the greatest FUCK YOU to Ted Cruz ever and I will be okay with that as a Texas non binary gay as fuck trans woman.

And I will rise tomorrow to fight like hell because What Would Molly Ivins do?
posted by nikaspark at 5:44 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]


If you need some relief, R. Eric Thomas brings us An Exhaustive Ranking of 'I Voted' Stickers From Around the Nation

And relevant to our interests, he's not a fan of election needles.
posted by great_radio at 5:45 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.

I agree, but don't discount the pleasure of seeing Ted Cruz thrown out on his ass.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 5:45 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Speaking for myself only, I'd be perfectly fine with a strategy of obstructing absolutely everything coming out of the White House, the Senate, and the other side of the House, but I'm simple like that.
posted by scrump at 5:45 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


A bit of good news out of Florida at least: Amendment 4, which restores voting rights to most convicted felons on completion of their sentence, is looking good: 64-36

I'm really glad to see that. Honestly, some part of any "blue wave" we can muster up will be to fix things on a local level - restoring voting rights, turfing out bigoted local officials, etc. Yes, I'm whistling past the graveyard, and NOT looking at that damn needle.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:45 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


@Nate_Cohn: Well, technical difficulties persist on the needle. But the basic outline of the night seems to be clear: A rehash of the 2016 election, but with more Democratic strength. What's the consequence of this? Well, the "big" dem map always supposed being able to breakthrough in a long list of red districts. That may yet happen, but so far it's tough to see. Instead, we get the piece-meal, district by district battle where the GOP basically has to run the table in a lot of districts.

Why yes, the GOP running the table in a lot of tossup districts is my exact nightmare, thanks.

But I'm glad your STUPID FUCKING NEEDLE is broken.
posted by zachlipton at 5:46 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Governor Charlie Baker (R) is projected to win re-election in MA. So is Senator Elizabeth Warren (D).

I’ve been living here for 13 years and I still marvel at all the assholes who can vote for both at the same damn time. Sigh.
posted by lydhre at 5:47 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


KY-6 went to R-Barr!
posted by mario_incandenza at 5:47 PM on November 6


I have no idea how my (indoor) cow-colored-cat has ended up with blue ink all over one paw, but I'm choosing to take it as a good omen.
posted by TwoStride at 5:47 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.

It would be amazing if O'Rourke wins, but even if he doesn't it's already a win for progressives. The fact that a Dem has made a Texas Senate race this close would have been a joke even a few years ago.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:47 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


@baseballot: ABC has projected that Mike Braun will win #INsen. Democrats couldn't afford a single loss in the Senate but the map just made that too hard.

That's Braun (R) over Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:48 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


SUPER GREAT NEWS from/for Buncombe County, NC (Asheville area): Quentin Miller (25+ years law enforcement experience, stated goals to train for de-escalation and community policing, supports LGBT rights, black, Democrat) elected as sheriff.

He was running against Shad Higgins (0 years law enforcement experience, owner of a tire store, white, MAGAhat) and there was even some last-minute ratfuckery where someone set fire to Shad’s tire shop in an effort to make the Miller folks look bad.

So this is SUPER GREAT NEWS, for real, and on a hyper-local level it makes a big difference.
posted by witchen at 5:48 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


The race in VA-07 is frikkin close. But... I think Spanberger (D) might pull off the upset? By a thousand votes? That would be huge since it would be the first flip of a district the Democrats weren't fully expected to win.

Virginia DoE has Brat (R) ahead by 6000 votes... but for some reason they dont have Chesterfield County votes included... and Chesterfield County is reporting Spanberger (D) has a net of about 8500 votes out of Chesterfield.

If that isn't some sort of reporting error, and I don't think it is given what I know of Chesterfield, that would mean Spanberger is actually ahead by 2.5k votes with almost all the vote in. Anyone see any way to read this differently?
posted by Justinian at 5:50 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


That's awesome, witchen.
posted by yoga at 5:50 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


This needle...it vibrates?
posted by uosuaq at 5:51 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


If the Dems take the House but not the Senate, I wonder what their strategy will be. At the very least they should do what the Republicans did for Obama and stall everything Trump tries to do that they can.

@aabramson: Pelosi says that WHEN democrats win they will strive for bipartisanship. “We have to try,” she says, citing the founding fathers
posted by zombieflanders at 5:51 PM on November 6


someone set fire to Shad’s tire shop in an effort to make the Miller folks look bad.

Reichstirefire?
posted by nickmark at 5:52 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


I live in VA-07, there was some issue with voting in Chesterfield and judges have ordered two polls to stay open until 9 PM. It's going to be a while before we know what how VA-07 goes. Maybe they don't send results to the state until polls are closed?
posted by COD at 5:53 PM on November 6


I live in VA-07, there was some issue with voting in Chesterfield and judges have ordered two polls to stay open until 9 PM. It's going to be a while before we know what how VA-07 goes. Maybe they don't send results to the state until polls are closed?

You're right! That's why the results from Chesterfield aren't in the state site yet. But it does leave one wondering why Chesterfield is reporting partial results while a couple polls are open. Still, I see Spanberger (D) moving ahead when Chesterfield reports.
posted by Justinian at 5:55 PM on November 6


I've been obsessively hitting refresh on the VA DOE website wondering what was happening with Chesterfield, so thanks! I'm feeling optimistic for Spanberger, so far Brat is ahead but he's consistently slid 6-7% from his 2016 results. A slide that large in Chesterfield might be enough for Spanberger to win.
posted by peeedro at 5:56 PM on November 6


I’ve seen the needle and the damage done.
posted by darkstar at 5:56 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
posted by Reverend John at 5:57 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


TPM is showing Texas in blue right now. Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?
posted by uosuaq at 5:57 PM on November 6


Moment of satisfaction: Safiya Wazir(D), a 27-year-old refugee from Afghanistan, won her seat in New Hampshire's house of representatives.
posted by schoolgirl report at 5:57 PM on November 6 [61 favorites]


VA-02 is looking interesting, with Luria (D) nearly tied with incumbent Taylor (R-incumbent). Nobody was quite sure how to rate that race, but it was leaning toward Taylor.

NBC News now also calling IN-Sen as a Republican pickup for Braun (R) defeating Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:57 PM on November 6


Sorry, to correct my typo above, as of around 6:45 CST, we had 2075 votes in. Out of just under 2500 registered voters in Minneapolis 1-3. :-)
posted by triggerfinger at 5:58 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?

Yes, and probably not.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:58 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Re tpm/tx - it is oscillating red/blue with the lead
posted by j_curiouser at 5:59 PM on November 6


I'm not going to clutter the thread with state legislative gains, but follow the DLCC for them.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Field report from very R Central Pennsylvania: Polls were busy ALL DAY LONG, with barely time to get a drink of water. Turnout had to be close to 50 percent, at a guess. Mood was "This election is important" rather than the grim anger of 2016. a not-tiny number of families voting together, and more first-time voters than I might have expected. The crew working the election was good--on the ball, helpful, and speedy. A special shoutout to the election judge for solving problems for voters and chasing down concrete answers for them. A++, would be a poll worker again!
posted by MonkeyToes at 5:59 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?

Yes, and probably not.


That's kind of what I was thinking, while another part of me was thinking "can you idiots not adjust your map algorithms to reflect this kind of thing? Shades of grayish red and blue or something? How hard is that?"
posted by uosuaq at 6:00 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I have a terrible migraine and had resigned myself to missing my first ever election since becoming eligible to vote but I pulled a last minute rally and took a picture of my sticker five minutes before polls closed! According to reports, an hour before polls closed, RI turnout was 103% of 2014, 72% of 2016, and 43% of registered voters. I don't have the final numbers though.
posted by Ruki at 6:00 PM on November 6 [31 favorites]


Nate Cohn injects some oxygen. It's a thread but here's the last tweet summary: Basically, the pattern so far--greater polarization--was the GOPs ticket to a good night in the Senate and close race for the House, as I wrote on Monday. But this gets GOP to a closer race, not to a majority without *more* strength than they have so far.

The GOP strategy here reminds me of... uhh... that guy from before I was born who told Nixon they could cleave the nation on racial and partisan lines but that he thought Nixon would get the bigger half. The GOP has gone all in on this, hoping for the bigger half. They don't have the bigger half... but they gerrymandered it so that 47% might be enough.

Let's send some energy to PA and NJ where the districts are more favorable demographically.
posted by Justinian at 6:02 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


NBC News going with an early call for WV-Senate for Manchin (D). That was reasonably expected, and I still don't know how he does it, but an important race.
posted by zachlipton at 6:02 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Re tpm/tx - it is oscillating red/blue with the lead

This is your cue to go watch or see a movie.
posted by rhizome at 6:03 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


This from the Richmond paper political reporter.

Where VA-07 stands: With almost everything in but Chesterfield, @vaELECT shows Brat up 6,480 votes. The incomplete Chesterfield results show Spanberger up 8,521 votes
posted by COD at 6:03 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Damn. The Senate is lost. Here's hoping the Democrats can take the House.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:04 PM on November 6


Manchin does it via means that cause regular wailing, gnashing of teeth, and rending of garments here on the Blue. Which, in sum, is probably a good thing if it keeps that otherwise red-as-hell seat in the Dem caucus.
posted by darkstar at 6:05 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Mark Murray:
House Dems with *narrow* leads in key FL-26 and VA-2 races

FL-26 (91%)
Mucarsel-Powell (D) 51% Curbelo (R) 49%

VA-2 (88%)
Luria (D) 51%
Taylor (R) 49%
posted by Justinian at 6:06 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


NBC calling TN-SEN for Blackburn (R). Sorry Taylor Swift.

There was a lot of last minute R money in that race.
posted by zachlipton at 6:06 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


If we only had someone like Manchin in Kentucky.
posted by JeffL at 6:06 PM on November 6


Senate is Republican almost certainly now (just need one more). Five thirty eight has Republicans at 3/7 chances of winning the house, up from 1/7 earlier today. Looks like 2016 all over again!
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:06 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


If anyone wants a pick-me-up, Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents in state-wide races in PA aren't just losing, they are getting embarrassingly crushed. And the shady as fuck write-in campaign against the uncontested State Assembly seat in my district that I talked about in the fucking fuck thread doesn't seem to have had much effect, so that's a relief.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:06 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


The statewide races in Florida (Senate and Governor) are looking grim, but the Pensacola News Journal has called a win for Amendment 4 to restore voting rights for former felons! This is huge for future elections in FL.
posted by mbrubeck at 6:06 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


NO MANCHIN TALK
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


Blackburn [R] wins Tennessee Senate, oof.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:07 PM on November 6


Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!
posted by zachlipton at 6:07 PM on November 6 [64 favorites]


NBC reporting there is not a blue wave forming.
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:09 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races? Do. Not. Understand.
posted by rbf1138 at 6:09 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!


Yes! In your face, Scott!

I still remember fuming after watching him chairing the committee reviewing and denying restoration of voting rights to applicants.
posted by darkstar at 6:09 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


If we only had someone like Manchin in Kentucky.

I know this would be a very good thing. And I also know I'd need to double my blood pressure medication.
posted by great_radio at 6:09 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


@NewsFallon: Among the supporters tonight ⁦@SenatorMenendez⁩’s HQ is Evelyn Arroyo-Maultsby, a juror on his federal corruption trial. She achieved some fame when she left the jury last year during deliberations to go on vacation. She would’ve voted for acquittal.

This is an extremely New Jersey thing to happen.
posted by zachlipton at 6:09 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


It's about stopping the bleeding in the Senate at this point, and a matter of what McConnell can do with 54 or 55 seats vs 52. A instant call for Manchin and not for Cramer in ND is about all the good news there is.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


NBC reporting there is not a blue wave forming.

Gee, you think?

Racism worked. The GOP threw the most abominable shit it could find at the wall and it stuck. Turnout went way way way up and it wasn't a push-back against fascism, just greater engagement all around. Even if we pull it out in the House I just want to sit in a dark room for the rest of my life.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:11 PM on November 6 [38 favorites]


The Blue Wave™ was always going to be just barely taking the house.
posted by sideshow at 6:12 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!

How is it possible that this happens at the same time that it appears the white supremacist is going to win?
posted by dis_integration at 6:12 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I just don't get it. I've had neighbors flag me down as I drove out of my driveway to thank me for having a Gillum sign in my yard. There have been SO many Gillum/Nelson signs in my area (Duval county). Everyone voted for Amendment 4 but this Governor and Senate race are looking very grim. I love my home state, but I truly truly can't understand this. I'm literally sick to my stomach.
posted by hollygoheavy at 6:13 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


The Times covered the caravan on A1 every day since Trump started this BS. Media didn't learn a thing. 'But her emails' became 'But the caravan.'
posted by chris24 at 6:13 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Other bright spots: though Massachusetts unfortunately re-elected Republican Charlie Baker as governor, the state overwhelming re-affirmed transgender rights (with about 78% of the vote so far) and is voting in favor of trying to dismantle Citizens United (also about 80% in favor so far).
posted by TwoStride at 6:13 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


rbf1138: "How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races? Do. Not. Understand."

FWIW, the GOP for the most part didn't take any stand on it, or campaign against it.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:13 PM on November 6


Racism worked.

Yeah. One of the livebloggers on 538 pointed out that Corey Stewart got about as many votes as Ed Gillespie did in 2017 in the Va governor's race. There was no vote penalty in going from a mainstream republican who traded in a little light dog whistling to a full-on neo-confederate. Those are all republican voters now.
posted by peeedro at 6:14 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


KY-6 with Barr (R) winning (51%) over McGrath (D) shows we're not getting the big wave we wanted, but I think the results so far show a fairly good Dem showing. I still have hope for FL. Texas looks (so far) better than I expected, but Beto just getting close will make me happy and I didn't dare hope for a win.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:16 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races?

They didn't tie it to racist fears, oddly. Lacking that, law and order voters read it as "they paid their time."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:16 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]




The Times covered the caravan on A1 every day since Trump started this BS. Media didn't learn a thing. 'But her emails' became 'But the caravan.'

At some point we need to recognize they're doing this on purpose. They want this. They've been working for it the entire time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:19 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Samuel Sinyangwe
40% of all black men in the state of Florida just became eligible to vote *today.* Think about that.
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on November 6 [96 favorites]


[A few comments removed, go right ahead and cool it.]
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:20 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]




In lighter news, it is legitimately frightening how tasty the Dark and Stormy's I mentioned over in the catch-all thread are. Dark rum + extra strength ginger beer and lime FTW.  I say this as someone who doesn't like rum.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:23 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]




Amanda Whitman, founder of Run for Something, just tweeted::
A thing to keep in mind: The GOP has invested in state & local gov’t for decades. They won the seats, wrote the rules, drew the districts, and put their thumb on the scales to make it harder for us to regain power. It will take more than just 18 months to undo that.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:24 PM on November 6 [61 favorites]


Mostly I just think all citizens should be allowed to vote, even if they’ve served time for serious crimes.
posted by Superplin at 6:24 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Mostly I just think all citizens should be allowed to vote

If the rule we followed brought us to this, of what use was the rule?
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:26 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I just think all citizens should be allowed to vote…

I'll go even further. You filed income tax returns to the U.S. government? Here's your ballot. I have zero issues with non-citizens voting if they're paying in.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:26 PM on November 6 [44 favorites]


furthest: if you are a billionaire who evades taxes you should not get a vote and not be allowed to donate to any campaign above PTA president.
posted by poffin boffin at 6:29 PM on November 6 [37 favorites]


If Beto wins or even comes within a two points, that means democrats really need to nominate a presidential candidate with an eye on Texas. Two years to develop a GOTV campaign.
posted by skewed at 6:29 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Cuomo, of course, won in NY. The worst fucking result tonight will be that asshole thinking this is a sign for him to run for President in 2020.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:29 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


NBC calling CO-06 for Crow (D) over Coffman (R-Incumbent). Another expected result (Republicans pulled their money from the race a while ago) in a Clinton-won district, but that's a 4th Democratic pickup.

The trend is starting to look like existing partisan leans being more extreme than before, all the way around.
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Rust Moranis, your argument assumes much.
posted by nickmark at 6:29 PM on November 6


Suburbs are coming in strong for Democrats. That bodes well for California, NJ, PA etc. The problem we're having in FL is so many rural voters in the statewide races.
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Two states allow currently incarcerated felons to vote. This should really be the goal.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:30 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


"Turnout went way way way up and it wasn't a push-back against fascism, just greater engagement all around."

I think this is too pessimistic. We already knew a whole lot of Republicans are happy with heretofore noxious shit so I think expecting some huge repudiation of the GOP was unrealistic. While I worried about some 2016-style horrifying surprise, I mostly worried about a barely squeaky win of the House and always thought a Senate win unlikely. So, for me, things so far seem pretty good now.

CNN is now going on about Democratic disappointment but that's just finding a story. A huge Dem wave wasn't likely and making it all about Dems being disappoinnted and that the Trump racism "worked" is wrong. The media always frames things negatively for the Democrats, I don't see any reason to go along with this.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:30 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


I was expecting the blue wave to fail but not like this. This shit fucking hurts.
posted by RedShrek at 6:31 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The night isn't over.
posted by scrump at 6:32 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


sideshow: The Blue Wave™ was always going to be just barely taking the house.

Yeah, that's my recollection, insofar as "Blue Wave" was ever defined at all. But I'm pretty sure its definition naturally shifted in the public's mind as the possibility of a Democratic win became everyone's baseline assumption.

I mean, the term could be defined as "better than expected" which means it's almost definitionally impossible as expectations line up closer and closer to reality.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:32 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


If Beto wins or even comes within a two points, that means democrats really need to nominate a presidential candidate with an eye on Texas. Two years to develop a GOTV campaign.

I've been extraordinarily sketpical of Beto's chances. But frak it, if he pulls it out I'm all in on the Beto Express.

Right now we have a whole lot of Democratic pickups that haven't been called because they're so close. If the Democrats hold on in a lot of those races (knock on wood) it will shift the outlook tremendously and quickly. AND Spanberger (D) just pulled into a lead in VA-07! Go ABBY.
posted by Justinian at 6:32 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Polls are still open in many states, maybe we could hold off on calling the entire election a failure? Or take that to the fucking fuck thread?
posted by palomar at 6:32 PM on November 6 [75 favorites]


I know people are celebrating Amendment 4 in FL but what makes you think the FL legislature can't override this?
posted by RedShrek at 6:32 PM on November 6


The worst is knowing that certain inhabitants of the White House will gloat about the failed blue wave even though people who understand how probability works are not particularly surprised about what looks to be a mild underperformance by the Dems compared to hopes/expectations.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:33 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Even minors (can) pay taxes. If the kremlin fesses up and pays payroll deductions do they get to swell the voter rolls too?

Tying money to the franchise is a terrible idea. I say this as a Canadian - please don’t screw up your pseudo democracy any further.
posted by mce at 6:33 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]





Rosie M. Banks: "Gretchen Whitmer (D) wins Michigan governor seat"

This is very good.


Yes, but why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race? MI wasn't even supposed to be a battleground for Senate.
posted by Preserver at 6:34 PM on November 6


[We can probably let the thought experiments about alternate voting models rest in here, there's plenty of actually-happening stuff to track.]
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:34 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


All the remaining VA-07 precincts are in Spanberger (D) territory. I'm calling it.

This is Eric Cantor's old seat. And it's a huge flip.
posted by Justinian at 6:35 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


Ha, I am moving at the end of this month so I am very happy to still have been here to cast a vote against Coffman.
posted by rewil at 6:35 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I’m calling Beto beating Trump in 2020. The blue wave may not be as big as we wanted but it IS happening and the earthquake that will cause it is in Texas.
posted by jasondigitized at 6:35 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I've been extraordinarily sketpical of Beto's chances. But frak it, if he pulls it out I'm all in on the Beto Express.

There seems like there's no way Beto can possibly win this one but if he does he's also going to be President in 2020. Also he's a snack.
posted by dis_integration at 6:36 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


As a former resident of Richmond, FUCK YEAH on VA-07
posted by skewed at 6:37 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The Virginia congressional districts surrounding me, 6, 5 and 9, have all been taken by the Republicans- to the surprise of no one.
posted by PHINC at 6:37 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Yes, but why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race?

NY Times has 13% reporting, mostly rural precincts. Importantly Wayne County (Detroit) and Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) have very few precincts reporting.
posted by zrail at 6:37 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


MSNBC just called Colorado Governor for Jared Polis (D).
posted by Gotanda at 6:37 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


ABC News projects that Democrat Jared Polis will win the gubernatorial race in Colorado.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:38 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]




all of the Beto being a snack stuff always spins my head because Beto O' Rourke looks terrifyingly similar to my brother in law + 10-15 years and it's Weird
posted by sciatrix at 6:38 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race?

Metro Detroit comes in very late and is basically all D.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:38 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Isn’t Kate Brown from Oregon the first?
posted by gucci mane at 6:39 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


MSNBC just called PA-17 (my district) for Lamb (D).

Eat shit, Keith Rothfus.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:39 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


I’m in transit but I’m seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
posted by Brainy at 6:39 PM on November 6


Tying money to the franchise is a terrible idea.

You misunderstand me, at least I think maybe so..  Citizens can already vote. I just feel that non-citizens subject to our taxation should have a vote too. No taxation without representation is something we used to find somewhat important. And I'd be all in on extending the franchise to underage citizens who are already paying income tax. No reason they shouldn't have a voice in the government taxing their income.

But I'm going off topic, so I'll skip more. I'm just glad to see Florida's odious disenfranchisement of convicted felons finally go. That always stuck in my craw when I used to sign people up to vote down there.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Kate Brown is bisexual.
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:40 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


It's a small - a very small and local - thing, but I'm elated that it appears highly likely that the wonderful Emily Gasoi will be representing my D.C. ward on our State Board of Education.

A *huge* amount of PAC money has flowed into this race, and her opponent, bankrolled by the Kochs, Bezos, and other neoliberal education profiteers, pulled out all the stops: impersonating her on local listservs, paying trolls to slander her as a racist on social media and at polls, and harassing her supporters online.

Meanwhile, she ran a determined, issues-based, shoe leather campaign on next to nothing - and won. It really gives me hope that, with hard work and good organization, we can beat these ghouls.

Also, I am looking forward to mocking her stooge opponent when I see him around the neighborhood.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:41 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


I’m in transit but I’m seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?

Yup, it's on their home page.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:41 PM on November 6


NBC News projects Jared Polis (D) will win Colorado and become the first openly gay governor ever elected

My buddy lives in Colorado and his wife is an evangelical Trump supporter who thinks black kids wouldn't get killed if they "didn't do crimes" and that gay people live a "sinful lifestyle" so this... this is awesome. I would gloat if she was someone I still talked to.
posted by bondcliff at 6:41 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


I know people are celebrating Amendment 4 in FL but what makes you think the FL legislature can't override this?

It's an amendment to the state constitution. Ballotpedia on Florida Amendment 4.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 6:41 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I’m in transit but I’m seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
Tweeted by Chad Pergram, who covers Congress for Fox News. Who the fuck knows what it means, though. I don't think that Fox is any better at predicting the future than anyone else.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:41 PM on November 6


Conor Lamb won in PA, so that's a Dem pickup.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:42 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Yup, it's on their home page.

This is like the opposite of 2012 where someone (Chaney?) ran downstairs to call the pollsters liars for saying Obama had won Ohio.
posted by sideshow at 6:42 PM on November 6


Jared Polis will win the gubernatorial race in Colorado.

Well okay now a governor owns original artwork by my friends I helped design.

Huh.
posted by The Whelk at 6:43 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


Democrats were never expected to take the Senate, so that's fine. It was a very bad map for Democrats, and the only reason it was in play was because of anger at the polls. (The fact that Beto is close to Cruz at all is fantastic, and also unexpected.) The House is gerrymandered against Democrats, but taking the House is what matters. Doesn't matter if it's close. If Democrats get even a slim majority, they get control of the committees and start launching two years' worth of investigations. There's been open, obvious disenfranchisement going on during this election, and the Republicans deserve to pay for that, but that takes governors, and that takes the House.
posted by Merus at 6:43 PM on November 6 [48 favorites]


I know this sounds cynical (ha), but any chance the Fox News call is a Dem turnout suppressant for the West Coast?
posted by tarshish bound at 6:43 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Metro Detroit comes in very late and is basically all D.

Yet haven't the same poll results called the Gov race for Whitmer?

I sure hope y'all are right but given what happened in 2016 and what happened today in Detroit I'm not sanguine.
posted by Preserver at 6:43 PM on November 6


So on the local level my guys Colin Allred, Nathan Johnson, John Creuzot and John Turner are pulling ahead. These are all amazing candidates and I'm seeing a localish blue wave, if people are feeling gutted. The Local Blue Wave is fucking happening!!!!!
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 6:43 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I’m in transit but I’m seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?

Yup, it's on their home page.


Don't believe it.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:43 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I’m in transit but I’m seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?

Not "calling," but they have their own needle (of course they do) and it's currently hovering between 82% and 84% chance Dems take the House, with Senate control holding steady at 68% chance for the GOP. They purport to explain their "methodology" here but it's just actually just a basic explainer on probability. (On edit: I'd assume this is entirely intended to spur turnout in races where polls are still open.)
posted by halation at 6:44 PM on November 6


You all realize that this is the deadest the megathread has been in, like, over two years?

It’s like *crickets* over there.
posted by darkstar at 6:44 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Gisele Fetterman, wife of the newly elected Lt. Gov. of PA just tweeted:
"Pennsylvania, your second lady is a formerly undocumented immigrant. ❤️Thank you."
posted by mcduff at 6:44 PM on November 6 [45 favorites]


Fox calling house for D's to depress the West coast vote no doubt.
posted by Mei's lost sandal at 6:44 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Whoops. that ended in the wrong thread. I moved. Sorry. Election day. Arrrggghh.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:45 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


If Democrats get even a slim majority, they get control of the committees and start launching two years' worth of investigations

Yeah, remember the Bengazi hearings? Imaging that but instead of imaginary crimes, they are investigating real crimes,
posted by sideshow at 6:46 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


I wonder if what we are seeing is partly an artefact of the Big Sort in action. I wonder how many well-educated people (who now lean Democratic) are leaving poorer Midwestern states with not-so-good weather, like Indiana, and moving to warmer climates with more economic opportunity, like Texas.

So if Indiana's remaining voters are growing older, whiter, and less educated, and Mike Braun didn't pop his mouth off too badly, well, there goes a Democratic Senate seat.

The Big Sort is really exposing the creakiness in America's electoral system, in particular the Senate. The "deplorables" are turning out in droves, but they always do. The difference is now Democrats are actually voting in a midterm election - think of what a bloodbath it would be if we didn't?

And, P.S.: I'm glad Conor Lamb won. And if Abigail Spanberger can defeat Dave Brat, I will laugh and laugh and drink a mug of Tea Party tears.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:46 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


The NYT needle is now up. It, um, is exceedingly better for my blood pressure than the 538 model. Like, how can these be about the same election?
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


With 11% reporting, all the MN state-wide positions are showing that Dems are ahead 60-65% to 30-35% for their Republican opponents. This is particularly good news for the governorship and for the AG position. Say what you will about Keith Ellison, but his opponent has reportedly been a gay-bashing, feminazi-calling, Rush Limbaugh-quoting ethically challenged bastard since the 8th grade. He’s been recorded at a fundraiser saying that if he was elected, he’d fire all the Democratic attorneys, and also had a “secret” (but easily traceable) partisan blog in direct violation of the ethics requirements during his position as a clerk of the Supreme Court. Even his former BOSS did a PSA telling people not to vote for him.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:46 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Rejoice, America, for Bob Menendez has won his Senate Race in New Jersey.

He is a Democrat.
posted by Justinian at 6:46 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


I know this sounds cynical (ha), but any chance the Fox News call is a Dem turnout suppressant for the West Coast?

YES. Don't believe their lies.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:46 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


You all realize that this is the deadest the megathread has been in, like, over two years?

It’s like *crickets* over there.


Existential dread is biting my tongue
posted by litleozy at 6:46 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


The senate was likely to retain its GOP. But, importantly, the House looks likely to go Dem (lots of investigations) and Governors are important re gerrymandering, so an increase in Dem governors is critical for House races in 2020
posted by vicusofrecirculation at 6:47 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Also: petty opinion, but I badly do not want Beto to run for President in 2020, and if he seriously tries I think a lot of people will be disappointed. He ran so strongly on a campaign of looking after Texans and governing for his constituents and not immediately abandoning them for national ambitions like Cruz did that if he allows himself to be put forth as a serious Presidential candidate, I think many Texans will feel very betrayed.

So on the local level my guys

And my gals Jana Lynn Sanchez and Lizzie Fletcher, too! The Texas House races actually look pretty... encouraging?
posted by sciatrix at 6:47 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.
posted by ckape at 6:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]




Even better in MN is I just saw that Hutch is leading Stanek in the sheriff's race? If Hutch wins, that's a huge victory.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:48 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Harry Enten: Based on internal modeling and returns, I believe is now "likely" (highest category I'll go) that Democrats will take back the House.

I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.

Everybody I'm seeing is basically calling the House for Democrats now. Fox, CNN, a few others.
posted by Justinian at 6:49 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


/me exhales for the first time in 3 hours.
posted by notyou at 6:51 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Existential dread is biting my tongue
posted by litleozy at 21:46 on November 6 [+] [!]


Get a room, you two.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:51 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Beto has said he will not run for president in 2020 "completely ruling it out", win or lose the senate race.
posted by smcameron at 6:52 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Can I just say EAT SHIT DAVE BRAT. Please do whatever you need to do, Chesterfield Co but omg I'm biting my nails and bouncing up and down.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:52 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell wins election to U.S. House in Florida's 26th congressional district. #APracecall at 9:47 p.m. EST.

That's a win over Curbelo (R) and a super great pickup of a tossup seat!
posted by zachlipton at 6:53 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.
Indeed.
posted by scrump at 6:53 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


Dems are 5-for-5 in the Clinton-won districts called so far, and they have enough of those to take the House without flipping any Trumpy districts. That doesn't mean they'll win them all, but MSNBC has 80% for a D takeover.

Nates Silver and Cohn are among the first to the Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Gulags for their deceptive, anxiety-inducing chartoonery.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:53 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.


Seriously. I mean, for a couple of minutes there, I thought I was going to have another comment entry to make in the Broken Heart Syndrome thread.

Meanwhile, polls here in AZ closed 50 minutes ago at 7pm, and we still gotta wait 10 more minutes for the first results to be posted on the state’s official site.

I’m feeling like Bender: “Let’s GO ALREADAYYY!!!”
posted by darkstar at 6:53 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Omar's a-coming
posted by Marticus at 6:53 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


AP calls WV senate for Joe Manchin.
posted by peeedro at 6:54 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I'd like to thank Justinian for bringing the Justinian's Cool-headed Perspective Level version of the JCPL this thread.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:54 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


Sharice Davids (D) makes it 6-for-6 in Clinton 2018 district pickups, winning KS-03.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:54 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


538: According to CNN, North Carolina is a “yes” on its voter ID measure, which would amend the state’s constitution to require voters to provide photo ID when they vote in person. The legislature passed a similar requirement back in 2013, but it was overturned by the courts, saying it targeted black voters with “almost surgical precision.”
posted by snortasprocket at 6:55 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


And NBC calls a pickup for KS-03 for Davids (D) over Yoder (R-Incumbant).

That was predicted likely D, but also another sign of Ds showing strength in these suburban districts. This would make Davids the Lesbian Native American Congresswoman (indeed, the first Native American woman period; Deb Haaland of NM will likely join her in that honor).
posted by zachlipton at 6:55 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.

Look, I love polls and predictions and such. But on election night, when you don't have to wait more than 500 minutes for the actual, real results, why bother?
posted by great_radio at 6:56 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


DSA endorsed candidates are doing well but those were mostly primary fights.
posted by The Whelk at 6:56 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


It looks like Brindisi NY22 has 63% with 51 of 565 (9%) precincts reporting over the horrific Claudia Tenney (37%). This is huge! Sarah Saunders, little Trump and bit Trump all were here in the past month!
posted by bluesky43 at 6:57 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Mikie Sherrill (D) flips a 49%-48% Trump district, defeating Jay Webber in NJ-11.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:57 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Yeah, remember the Benghazi hearings? Imaging that but instead of imaginary crimes, they are investigating real crimes

If the Democratic Party wins the House, Maxine Waters, as the most senior member of the Financial Services Committee, can request, and then publish, Trump's tax returns.

And that's before they hold any goddamn hearings
posted by Merus at 6:58 PM on November 6 [86 favorites]


Also, no one except that rando tweeter is confirming the outcome of the Michigan governor's race, so I'm not sure what to think.
posted by great_radio at 6:58 PM on November 6


NBC calling Kansas-GOV for Kelly (D) over Kobah (R)!

I am partying!
posted by zachlipton at 6:58 PM on November 6 [74 favorites]


I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.

Today at my polling place (a middle school), they brought some of the kids at the school in to watch us work and ask questions. A Somali girl, maybe 12 years old, came up to our table and shyly asked "What is Ilhan Omar running for?" and it made my heart swell to know that this little girl has someone she can look at in Congress, someone like her. Representation really does matter.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:58 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]


Kris Kobach LOST. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
posted by RedShrek at 6:59 PM on November 6 [42 favorites]


KOBACH DOWN!!!
posted by localhuman at 6:59 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Nate Cohn: Tex Cruz is on track for a comfortable victory in Texas, according to our estimates, even though Beto leads in the reported vote.
This is not a projection. But Beto win outside of MOE

We're going to need better performances in MT, AZ and NV to avoid a real downside scenario in the Senate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Laura Kelly (D) defeats racist "voter fraud" fraudster Kris Kobach in KS-Gov.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:59 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Meanwhile, polls here in AZ closed 50 minutes ago at 7pm, and we still gotta wait 10 more minutes for the first results to be posted on the state’s official site.

Maricopa County doesn't count mail ballots until tomorrow I think, could be a while for Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Kobach, as the face of racist voter disenfranchisement, going down to defeat is the best! Let that be a warning to others.
posted by Gotanda at 7:00 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I have been trying to check back every half hour, because my blood pressure is not up to tonight, but Iowa polls just closed, and I am so, so nervous.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:01 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


We're going to need better performances in MT, AZ and NV to avoid a real downside scenario in the Senate.

I absolutely hope this happens.

But let's be clear; the structural disadvantage faced by Democrats in the Senate means that eventually this is something we'll have to face up to. It is very unlikely we can keep these red state seats forever and we need a plan for that.
posted by Justinian at 7:01 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Politico says Dems have picked up MN-03.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Elaine Luria (D) picks up VA-02 in another narrowly Trumpy district.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:02 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Kobach and Kim Davis losing are two very bright examples of the arc of the moral universe trying its damndest to bend, y’all.
posted by darkstar at 7:02 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


NBC is calling VA-2 as a Dem pickup for Luria (D) over Taylor (R-incumbent).

That's another suburban district where Dems over-performed the polls.

Wait what? NY-11 on Staten Island (a Trump +10 district!) was just a Dem Pickup (per NBC) for Max Rose (D) over Dan Donovan (R-incumbant)
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


That's a net gain of 11 seats (+12, -1) for Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


That NY-11 result is bonkers.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:04 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Yesss, the bar just erupted in cheers for Max Rose.
posted by ferret branca at 7:04 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Republicans losing Staten Island would be a major shift. The country is polarizing faster than I thought possible!
posted by Justinian at 7:04 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Ironstache [D] has lost in WI-01.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:04 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Maricopa County doesn't count mail ballots until tomorrow I think, could be a while for Senate

They have actually probably been counting them all day today. 80% or so of the vote on AZ is early. Pima counts early ballots during Election Day.
posted by azpenguin at 7:04 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Why is Fox News calling it a Dem House win so soon? Nobody else is even close to calling it. This smacks of some sort of attempt at influencing turnout at polls that are still open in the west.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 7:05 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Also, no one except that rando tweeter is confirming the outcome of the Michigan governor's race, so I'm not sure what to think.


AP and WAPO just confirmed a Whitmer (D) win.
posted by Preserver at 7:06 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.
posted by RedShrek at 7:06 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


The other big gruff guy, Ojeda [D], has lost WV-03.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:06 PM on November 6


My friend is on his way to flipping a PA-state seat! He lost in 2016 but ran again, and I am so proud of him!

What the fuck is going on with NJ-03? Andy Kim (D-challenger) was polling so much closer than the returns look now? Are all the blue votes stuck in Burlington?
posted by gladly at 7:06 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Indeed they (Maricopa) have been doing some counting already. You can actually watch live feeds of people opening and processing the ballots. (I confess I burned a good half-hour like that this morning.)
posted by darkstar at 7:07 PM on November 6


Mary Ellen Carter: NYT has >95% change of Dems winning the House, so Fox doesn't seem completely bonkers.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:07 PM on November 6


This smacks of some sort of attempt at influencing turnout at polls that are still open in the west.

That's exactly what it is.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:07 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Rachel Rollins, a progressive, is easily winning election for district attorney in Massachusetts's Suffolk County (Boston and three smaller suburbs). Her key election was really the September primary, where she beat out several other candidates, including an assistant DA heavily backed by police officers.
posted by adamg at 7:08 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.
posted by sideshow at 7:08 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


NBC calling ND-Sen for Cramer (R) over Heitkamp (D-Incumbant)

The Senate is looking pretty awful. Also, voter suppression of Native Americans is the story of this election.
posted by zachlipton at 7:09 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Why is Fox News calling it a Dem House win so soon? Nobody else is even close to calling it.

FWIW, MSNBC is giving the probability as 95%. But since Sarah Sanders basically conceded the House on Fox News I am tempted to call shenanigans.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:09 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I have been saying for years in the face of my friends' despair, that gerrymandering "only works until it doesn't" as a means to keeping their—and my—hope up.

If the House, and more importantly all these State offices flip, I can finally feel a tiny bit of vindication for my resolute optimism in the face of all evidence.  That will be nice, if so   I'm tired of being the voice of hope; I'm inherently pessimistic but refused to give in to it out of sheer stubbornness.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:09 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I mean...it doesn't seem like a good attempt at influencing polls against Dems. Anyone who actually watches/trusts Fox is probably voting for Republicans anyway, so in this case wouldn't calling it for Dems depress Republican turnout?
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:10 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


How does the Senate ever get fixed? When you consider that KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, AR and SC combined is equal to the population and nearly the same land area as CA, but gets 14 senators vs 2. The balance is completely out of whack, and is baked in, short of redrawing state lines. What steps can be taken that all sides would agree to?
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:10 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Wow, if the results turn out how 538 and NYT are currently projecting, I'm going to be really interested to hear what went wrong with 538's live tracker earlier in the evening. I suppose I can savor the fact that my previous post spanned the 60 seconds it projected Dems at less than 50% to win the House, but it's still a weird glitch that Silver will have to explain.
posted by chortly at 7:10 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Medicaid expansion in NE!
posted by jason_steakums at 7:10 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


Kelly winning in a landslide has made me enormously happy. Sharice too. Both broke my despair. Now if my favorite piece of milquetoast, Paul Davis, can keep his lead over Steve "Gob" Watkins, then it'll be a great night here in Kansas.
posted by Teegeeack AV Club Secretary at 7:10 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US. Rome wasn't built in a day, and clearly we've got our work cut out for us. Like someone said upthread, we weren't going to reverse the tide of shit in just 18 months.
posted by scrump at 7:11 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


I can't get cspan.org to load and made the mistake of trying the CBS livestream only to come right in on the anchors sharing a collegial chuckle with Lindsey Graham. NOTHANKU, NEXT
posted by halation at 7:11 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.


It's almost like a recent election where everyone thought it was in the bag turned bad quick and got worse.
posted by avalonian at 7:12 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


How does the Senate ever get fixed? When you consider that KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, AR and SC combined is equal to the population and nearly the same land area as CA, but gets 14 senators vs 2. The balance is completely out of whack, and is baked in, short of redrawing state lines. What steps can be taken that all sides would agree to?

Nothing that all sides would agree to, but statehood for DC and Puerto Rico would help both places and probably help Democrats, too. That doesn't come close to making up for all the empty red states...but GA, TN, and KY are not as dead-sure Republican as others. (If it makes you feel slightly better...)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:13 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


MN-3:Dean Phillips (D) over incumbent Erik Paulsen.

(I met Congressman-Elect Phillips a number of years ago; he impressed me at the time as a smart and compassionate individual. Erik Paulsen has never struck me as either of those things.)
posted by nickmark at 7:13 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


NBC calling TX-SEN for Cruz (R-incumbent) over O'Rourke (D). Question is whether his outstanding showing makes a difference in some of the Texas House races, including some great state rep pickups that are looking good.
posted by zachlipton at 7:13 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Women seem to be winning on the House level, and governorships, and local races. Just the Senate - to wit, Senate seats where old white people hold disproportionate power - is tilting the other way.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:13 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


NBC is calling Texas for Ted Cruz. I'm sadder than I thought I'd be since I tried to keep my expectations in check. Beto did the lord's work building up a Democratic apparatus in Texas that we can hope pays off in the long run. (And among House races now.)
posted by Justinian at 7:13 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


MN-03 has been called for Dean Phillips - D over incumbent and Erik Paulsen. Phillips ran a great campaign that a lot of the local design and advertising community worked on. Best known for his Sasquatch ads and having a fishing ice house.
posted by misterpatrick at 7:14 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Lori Trahan (D) wins in Massachusetts' 3rd District. No surprise, 538 had it at 99% D. But still.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:14 PM on November 6


Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.

I only allow myself one phase of panic during an election and so will remain convinced the House is lost until the curtain falls.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:14 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


The really important thing is to get more Democratic governorships. There was a bunch of analysis a while back about Republican governors enabling a Republican federal majority to pass Constitutional amendments with enough governors to ratify them, and that won’t happen if we take and hold those seats. Likewise it will be important for a lot of judicial positions at the state level.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:16 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


If Fox News' early call for the House Democrats is intended to depress late-in-the-day turnout in the West, don't they realize who their prime audience is? If anything, it'll depress Republican voters and turn a couple close races blue... thanks, Fox.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:16 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


@Autumnheart: thank you for that. Makes me feel a bit better.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:17 PM on November 6


If Beto loses and he isn’t going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?
posted by jasondigitized at 7:17 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions (R) in TX-32. (NBC)
posted by chris24 at 7:18 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Even if that obnoxious fucker Cruz is in fact re-elected, god bless Beto O'Rourke for waking up progressive Texas. That is an *astonishing* amount of momentum in a very short time and I hope to god that TX keeps it going.
posted by Sublimity at 7:18 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


Aaannnd Allred (D) just defeated billion-term incumbent Pete Sessions (R). THANKS BETO.
posted by Justinian at 7:18 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


> Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions in TX-32.

No way! Thanks, Beto...
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:18 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


TX-32: Pete Sessions (11 term!!! R-incumbent) falls to Colin Allred (D) per NBC's call. That was a tossup to leans D for the ratings, Clinton +2 district.

BETO'S REVENGE is alive in Texas!
posted by zachlipton at 7:18 PM on November 6 [38 favorites]


I'd like an overview of the gubernatorial and statehouse races, and of the anti-gerrymandering initiatives. These three things in combination will make a big difference for the 2020 census redistricting and give us a hint of where things are going.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:19 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Beto wasn't ever going to win this year. But this should be a huge wakeup call to Democrats: they can win in Texas, but it's going to require serious, sustained investment. So if you're a Dem in Texas, don't despair. This is only the beginning. All the work is going to pay off over time.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:19 PM on November 6 [62 favorites]


Yes, the governorships and local races are damn important. As Amanda Litman noted in her tweet, the R's have been doing this for years while we Dems have been asleep at the switch. If we get our Blue Wave after all it's going to be at the local level, and will build up our base and our bench.

And it looks like women, POC and LGBT candidates are gaining in local races and governorships. If we want a diverse bench, that's just what we need.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:19 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions in TX-32. (NBC)

That's a spicy meatball!
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:19 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Ivan Fyodorovich: "I'd like an overview of the gubernatorial and statehouse races, and of the anti-gerrymandering initiatives. These three things in combination will make a big difference for the 2020 census redistricting and give us a hint of where things are going."

I will have a recap on everything!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


NBC is calling Texas for Ted Cruz. I'm sadder than I thought I'd be since I tried to keep my expectations in check. Beto did the lord's work building up a Democratic apparatus in Texas that we can hope pays off in the long run. (And among House races now.)

I have very little patience for late-date repentant Republicans, but I'm afraid Rick Wilson called this one right: any other Democrat would've lost by more, and Beto only polled so close because he was an amazing candidate. (FWIW he also called FL's Bill Nelson useless and warned that people were underrating how good Rick Scott is at local politicking.)

...here's hoping that we have a couple decades worth of incredible Democratic candidates, it feels like we're going to need that to undo all the damage that Republicans are doing right now.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:20 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


MI-11: NBC calls it for Stevens (D) over Epstein (R) in this open seat. This was reasonably likely, but Epstein is the one who invited the defrocked fake Rabbi to campaign for her alongside Pence, so I'm rather pleased she's not going to Congress.
posted by zachlipton at 7:21 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


NBC just joined Fox and called the House for Ds.
posted by chris24 at 7:21 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US.

Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 7:21 PM on November 6


Though let's give credit to Colin Allred (D). You need both an energized Democratic apparatus (BETO) and a good candidate working his ass off. So Thanks Colin!
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.

That’d be a fun confirmation hearing.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:21 PM on November 6


MSNBC calls the House for Democrats.

Cake for everyone!
posted by tonycpsu at 7:21 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


It’s going to be especially important if we want to combat voter suppression and gerrymandering efforts for 2020. It’s gonna get a lot damn harder for the GOP to pull shenanigans when they don’t get to influence the bench.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


AND NBC IS CALLING THE HOUSE FOR THE DEMOCRATS, joining Fox News's early call. And Republicans will hold the Senate, naturally.
posted by zachlipton at 7:22 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Spanberger (VA7) up by 1800 votes with only 3 Chesterfield districts out. Starting to get excited that I'll be represented by a real human being in Congress.
posted by COD at 7:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


MSNBC called for Dem House control.

Bring on the Hearings!
posted by leotrotsky at 7:22 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


It looks like Gillum is going to lose the FL gov. race by a point or so as the last few counts come in. This place, I tell ya...
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:22 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Yes, the governorships and local races are damn important. As Amanda Litman noted in her tweet, the R's have been doing this for years while we Dems have been asleep at the switch. If we get our Blue Wave after all it's going to be at the local level, and will build up our base and our bench.

Exactly. People, including here on MeFi, talk about Republican gerrymandering like it's a basic fact of the universe, but it's not. It's the result of Democratic incompetence and apathy. It's baffling that the Dems have basically ceded local races to the Republicans for decades.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:23 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


It is very unlikely we can keep these red state seats forever and we need a plan for that.

1) Automatic nationwide voter registration.

2) Ability to vote early or by mail - voter's choice - for any election involving a national position, including Senators and Representatives.

3) Sunshine laws for Congress - all rough drafts of legislation released to the public (possibly after the vote); live cameras in every room, all the time (you work for the public; no privacy on the job); regular depositions under oaths for every Senator and Representative, stating whether they read the legislation on which they voted.

4) Blue wave anti-gerrymandering: Set up third-party boards to divide the state, and require that they do so without voting data of the residents - they can use other demographic features, but they can't know the R/D split when deciding on districts. Ideally, push to make this into constitutional amendments, but that's likely outside of the scope of a single wave.

5) Campaign Integrity Laws: if your campaign is found to have broken election laws, you get thrown out of your seat and the runner-up immediately gets put in your place. If they're not available, a special election is held as normal.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:23 PM on November 6 [42 favorites]


Pritzker (D)'s win in Illinois makes Juliana Stratton the first Black Woman Lt Governor of Illinois.
posted by TwoStride at 7:23 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


I think it's important to remember that the Republican party has been packing local and state offices for decades. Counteracting that is going to mean putting progressive candidates in office across the board, and that's going to take time. Like others have said, marathon, not sprint, but also: this is going to take more than one election.
posted by scrump at 7:23 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


Texas Senator Cornyn is up in 2020; a worthy consolation prize for Beto to aim for...
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:23 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


> "Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny."

Donnelly's vote against Kavanaugh was likely a significant factor in his loss.
posted by kyrademon at 7:23 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Cake for everyone!

Cake for some, subpoenas for others!
posted by peeedro at 7:23 PM on November 6 [80 favorites]


The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US.

Explain please? Donnelly was a man running against another man. As a Hoosier, I absolutely don't need convincing that misogyny is alive and well here in Indiana. Just trying to connect your specific dots.
posted by Rykey at 7:24 PM on November 6


@Nate_Cohn: Kendra Horn up to 95% to win in Oklahoma 5, according to our estimates. Would be a stunner

It's these suburbs that are just outperforming for Democrats. That would be a huge pickup.
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny.

Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. As did Heitkamp. There are strong suggestions that those votes cost them badly.
posted by scrump at 7:25 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Beto's still young yet and we'll need strong presidential candidates for years to come, just having him on the bench is great.

Also, the lessons learned from the Beto campaign will be disseminated to other Dem campaigns in red states, like Kander before him. We're building something there.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:25 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


BBC called Senate for Rs, House for Ds.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:26 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


"makes Juliana Stratton the first Black Woman Lt Governor of Illinois."

YES AND WE LOVE HER SO MUCH!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:26 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Winning local, State and House elections is called building a deep bench. For every 100 local Dems we elect, 10 go on to the state house and of those 10, 3 go to Congress and of those three 1 goes to Senate and x 50 = a lot of candidates to choose from.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:28 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Portland Press-Herald reporting Jared Golden (D) leading incumbent Bruce Poloquin (R) in Maine's 2nd district. If that holds, New England will not have a single Republican member of Congress.
posted by adamg at 7:28 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


MSNBC Watch: Rachel Maddow is talking about the importance of having Democratic control of the House re: investigations. she's following us
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:29 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]


Has anyone mentioned that Massachusetts defeated the very bad anti-trans ballot measure?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on November 6 [45 favorites]


Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.

That’d be a fun confirmation hearing.


This is the difference between 52 and 55 Republican seats now. Already we're counting on Mitt Romney to block something like this.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:30 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


@matthewferner: Another BIG criminal justice reform measure looks like it's passing -- Louisiana's amendment that requires an unanimous jury for a felony conviction. The nonunanimous jury rule is a shameful vestige of the state’s white supremacist roots.

It's up 63-37
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on November 6 [56 favorites]


yeah im watching MSNBC with Maddow talking about Elijah Cummins impending leadership on the oversight committee and texting my cousin who is like "watch CNN are you on an alternate universe" while wolf and tapper blather.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:31 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


After watching these senate returns I'd say fascism is alive and well. For me not a big deal. I'm 81. But my family. This does make it a big deal for me. Don't these Trump supporters have any family?
posted by notreally at 7:31 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


Is there any lesson to learn from the GA governor's race other than that voter suppression works?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:31 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


So....right now Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is behind in the polls. But Twitter feedback is torn on this - about half are starting to frost the victory cakes, while half are pointing out that some heavily red districts haven't checked in with their tallies yet.

I'm still kind of marvelling that Staten Island here in NYC went blue - can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:32 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Don't these Trump supporters have any family?

Moloch needs feeding.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:32 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


> Don't these Trump supporters have any family?

They have the 14 words. that’s what family means to them.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:32 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]


yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about

I've been swearing off Twitter this week. Realistically, I don't think I can stomach it until next week.

(If Cruz lost, I would've made an exception, obviously.)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:33 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Staten Island went McCain and then Obama. It's complex and more urban than you'd think. Max Rose has been running a very good (and expensive) campaign.
posted by snickerdoodle at 7:34 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


NBC's brian williams just said Mario when he meant Andrew Cuomo. the only thing ill enjoy about his easy reelection.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:34 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Here in Travis county, 47.33% of registered voters voted early. Total turnout in 2014 was 41.38% (22.25% early).
posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:35 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Bring on the Hearings!

And also endless hand-wringing about if enforcing the rule of law is acceptable. Break out the smelling salts and fainting couches. The pundit class is going to need them.
posted by great_radio at 7:35 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?

His campaign seemed real nervous in the last week, that's all I know, but this is still a toss-up with 58% reporting. Even 538 still has us as neutral white.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:36 PM on November 6


With 33% reporting, Democrats still comfortably ahead for all state-wide seats in MN. Much of out-state has not finished reporting, though, so it’s too early to get cozy.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:36 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Rose's campaign was weird - he was trying real hard to distance himself from national dems and the anti trump movement . . .do what you gotta do i guess, but im skeptical about his long term prospects.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:36 PM on November 6


And also endless hand-wringing about if enforcing the rule of law is acceptable. Break out the smelling salts and fainting couches. The pundit class is going to need them.

hey if the people elect someone to high office then the rule of law doesn't apply to that person, this somehow is apparently an agreed-upon thing in 2018
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:37 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


WI results say that with 55% reporting, Walker is down by 34,000 votes or just a hair over 2%.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:37 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


If Beto loses and he isn’t going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?

Kamala/Beto 2020...
posted by mikelieman at 7:38 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about

Michigan appears to be on track to handily approve recreational marijuana, independent redistricting, and voting reforms (automatic and same-day registration, no-excuse absentee voting).
posted by Preserver at 7:38 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


If Beto loses and he isn’t going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?

Lieberman 2020!
posted by kirkaracha at 7:39 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Sean Casten wins in IL-6, another Dem House pickup, and in a district that includes my home town!
posted by Deutscheben at 7:39 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Dane and Milwaukee Counties still have a fair number of precincts that haven't reported yet so I hold onto hope that Evers will keep his lead.
posted by acidnova at 7:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Anyway Dems are poised to take control of the NY state senate, forcing the crypto-republican, progressive legislation blocking governor to deal with the legislature rather then inventing a fake republican aligned caucus to keep them powerless.
posted by The Whelk at 7:40 PM on November 6 [62 favorites]


Sean Casten wins in IL-6, another Dem House pickup, and in a district that includes my home town!

Eat it, Roskam!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


ABC calling VA-7 for Spanberger, but nothing has changed on VA count site for 15 minutes, so nit sure what they are basing that on.
posted by COD at 7:41 PM on November 6


Nate Silver speculates that the Bob "bribe me" Menendez at the top of the ticket is hurting NJ House candidates and compares the overperformance of Democrats in New York where Gillibrand is on the ballot instead of Bob "no, really, give me the money" Menendez.

Yes, everyone should have voted for him and they mostly did. But the Democratic Leadership should be taken to task for not pushing him out.
posted by Justinian at 7:41 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings. It's a tactic Republicans have used over and over and the left keeps falling for: make a fake big stink about something obviously ridiculous so that future sincere efforts can be smeared as more of the same. What the left fails to realize over and over is that calling these out as ridiculous and stupid is just what the right wants.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:41 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Anyway Dems are poised to take control of the NY state senate

yes but when can we launch felder into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 7:41 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]




Empress, we're over here looking at the Wisconsin map. Most of Waukesha is in and there's quite a lot of Dane county still uncounted (and our turnout here was off the charts). I'm cautiously optimistic.
posted by gerstle at 7:43 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings.

That’s very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
posted by argybarg at 7:45 PM on November 6 [67 favorites]


With 97% of precincts reporting, the (MN) Hennepin County Sheriff race is a nail-biter. Dave Hutch is at 50% while racist xenophobe incumbent Rich Stanek is at 49%. Something like 5,500 votes difference between the two.
posted by nickmark at 7:45 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman

OK maybe it's being so damn tipsy from all these Dark and Stormy's, but I legitimately laughed out loud at that.

THANK YOU, I needed that. That is such a better headline.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:45 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?

Walker was one of the GOP politicians that busted out the "I have $RELATIVE with $DISEASE, of course I care about pre-existing conditions" and FB friends seemed to be taking it strangely seriously! I was playing debunking-whack-a-mole with that one.

Evers is just the sort of boring evidence-based thinker that I like, but apparently that sort of thing isn't super electable these days...? Also he's waffled a bit on taxation and the Foxconn deal and that may have hurt him.
posted by Jpfed at 7:46 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Texas Senator Cornyn is up in 2020; a worthy consolation prize for Beto to aim for...

Not gonna do it, same reason he won't run for President. He wants to raise his kids. He's said so, no uncertain terms.
posted by scalefree at 7:46 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.

I'm cool with a couple of years of Democrats lining up to be seen yelling at Brett Kavanaugh. In the House hearings, *every* witness is going to be heard, and Kavanaugh is going to be cross-examined under oath.
posted by mikelieman at 7:47 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman

If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:47 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]


I suspect part of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings. It's a tactic Republicans have used over and over and the left keeps falling for: make a fake big stink about something obviously ridiculous so that future sincere efforts can be smeared as more of the same. What the left fails to realize over and over is that calling these out as ridiculous and stupid is just what the right wants.

I promise you that most Republican voters would swear on their children's lives that Hillary Clinton is an evil woman who (through malice or incompetence) aided in the deaths of Americans in Benghazi. Honestly, if Dems spend a month yelling about anything, even something a "scandal" as cooked up as Benghazi, a large portion of the American public would swear it is true because they heard something about it. Dems on the Hill should spend the next two years screaming about Republican malfeasance.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:47 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.

Yeah. It's funny but as Chuck Tingle said, he's terrible because he's an evil devilman not because Bigfoot is his preferred pound.
posted by Justinian at 7:48 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?
posted by gtrwolf at 7:50 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


a large portion of the American public would swear it is true because they heard something about it.

the portion of the american public stupid enough to believe shit like that in the first place will also under no circumstances believe anything a democrat says.
posted by poffin boffin at 7:50 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about

This about as local as local can get, but Cuyahoga County (the greater Cleveland area) has basically just passed an amendment to the county charter "to prohibit discrimination in county employment on the basis of gender identity/expression." (There was some other stuff in there too about separating/clarifying the roles of a couple of HR-related departments, and technically not all precincts have reported in but right at this moment it stands at 229,000 "yes" votes to 77,000 "no" votes, so it's a done deal.)
posted by soundguy99 at 7:50 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?

Yes.
posted by scrump at 7:50 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


I thought that was going to be a reference to Dean Phillips, but apparently now we’ll have two Congressmen with links to Bigfoot.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:50 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Whether Beto runs again or not, he's built up a great local network of committed Texans and Cornyn is a big, juicy, evil target.

The Allred thing put me into cake territory. Sessions is one evil little carbuncle our state can do without.
posted by emjaybee at 7:50 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman

If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.


Insert "family values"-related comment here.
posted by gtrwolf at 7:51 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Besides, Bigfoot isn't his preferred pound; his book is titled "Mating Habits of Bigfoot and Why Women Want Him." He doesn't want to bang Bigfoot - I'll bet it's some awful evo-psych monstrosity claiming that women want a man who doesn't bathe and who literally hauls them around by force.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:51 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


mikelieman: I'm cool with a couple of years of Democrats lining up to be seen yelling at Brett Kavanaugh. In the House hearings, *every* witness is going to be heard, and Kavanaugh is going to be cross-examined under oath.

There will be lot of fantastic investigations, subpoenas, and so on, but absolutely do not hold your breath for the House (?) investigating Kavanaugh (?). Unless you're getting more at the way he might be connected to Russia-Lago than at his assaults and recent perjury over same.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:52 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Cindy Axne seems to have picked up a Dem Congressional seat in the Des Moines area. That one was too close to call, and I was a little worried about it, so it's good news. Democrat Dave Loebsack held in Iowa 2, which wasn't ever really in doubt. Still waiting to hear about Iowa 1, which was polling strongly for the Democrat, Abby Finkenauer. And there's Steve King, but I'm not letting myself hope that he'll lose.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:52 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


I thought that was going to be a reference to Dean Phillips, but apparently now we’ll have two Congressmen with links to Bigfoot.

But only one of them has a family distillery!
posted by nickmark at 7:52 PM on November 6


How do tonight's Senate results compare to the map going in? It was very Republican friendly.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:52 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


One narrative not adequately being expressed tonight is how much the Democratic legal effort has helped produce this result. The fight to redistrict PA has been huge. Georgia is at all competative because of legal wins to stop voter suppression. Adding 1.4 million potential new voters to Florida is going to be crucial in 2020. There's a whole quiet apparatus that's doing this work, and it doesn't get enough credit.
posted by zachlipton at 7:53 PM on November 6 [89 favorites]


> I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings.

That’s very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.


Also: it's a lot harder to discredit hearings and investigations when they turn up evidence of actual wrongdoing, which they will, because wrongdoing is why most members of the administration were chosen.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:53 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I'm looking forward to congressional oversight and burying Trump under a mountain of uncovered slime. On the other hand, it doesn't look like the blue wave I was hoping for is going to happen. I was hoping that many of the Republicans who voted for Trump would be disgusted with his leadership and vote Democrat. That does't appear to be happening, and that's sobering.
posted by xammerboy at 7:53 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?

Better than him calling it illegitimate. Let him gloat; the House is going to royally fuck him up for the next two years.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:54 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Damn, the Ohio governor's race looks like it's lost by a significant margin, which really doesn't bode well for 2020.
posted by skewed at 7:55 PM on November 6


How do tonight's Senate results compare to the map going in? It was very Republican friendly.

Ask this in a couple hours when we know about the western states. Right now it's on the border between "not great but not unexpected" and disaster.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:55 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?

Neither. He'll spend it basking in the glow of 2016, how huge that win was & how it was much more important than yesterday.
posted by scalefree at 7:56 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


@ezraklein

NYT is projecting Democrats win a ~9% margin in the House popular vote. The last time we saw a margin like that was 08, amidst a collapsing economy and a loathed war.

Unemployment is 3.7% right now. America isn't at war. A margin this big is nuts — a pure repudiation of Trump.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:56 PM on November 6 [57 favorites]


So, I did a lot for the Allred campaign, and I'm beyond thrilled that he won, but I literally cried when the pundits called the state for Cruz. I don't even understand how people can vote for him, he's just so repulsive.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:56 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


Better than him calling it illegitimate. Let him gloat; the House is going to royally fuck him up for the next two years.

Only if we demand it and force the House to do its job. Winning the House is only the first step: we have to apply pressure for the House to actually govern, which is where the deep benches and steady effort come in.
posted by scrump at 7:56 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


@peteschroeder: Honestly surprised at Cordray losing. He's definitely not a rousing retail politician, but you'd think a record of policing banks and payday lenders on behalf of consumers would resonate.

It's dangerous to extrapolate from a single House race, but that's not a great sign for a Warren-style campaign in 2020 focusing on Wall Street.
posted by zachlipton at 7:56 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


The elected every two years House is going to what now? No.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 7:56 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Dems pick up NM Gov.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:56 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


I was hoping that many of the Republicans who voted for Trump would be disgusted with his leadership and vote Democrat.

Corey Stewart, and out and proud Nazi, still got 1 million votes in VA. A lot of our fellow citizens are just flat out misogynistic, racists, fuckwads. And they will always vote Republican.
posted by COD at 7:57 PM on November 6 [49 favorites]


Illinois: All 5 constitutional offices won by Democrats (Gov + Lt Gov, AG, Comptroller, Treasurer, Secy State). Sean Casten (D) has defeated Peter Roskam (R) in a district considered very difficult to win for Ds.

Betsey Dirksen Londrigan (D) is running ahead of Rodney Davis (R-i), race not yet called -- bits of Springfield but almost entirely rural, Davis should not be losing. Lauren Underwood (D-awesome) is running ahead of Randy Hultgren (R-i) in a case that observers are calling political malpractice on Hultgren's part -- tiny bits of Naperville but otherwise totally gerrymandered to be the last remaining R stronghold in the Chicago area.

If Londrigan and Undersood indeed win, the only GOP reps out of 18 will be Mike Bost (rural areas outside St. Louis), Adam Kinzinger (rural collar around Chicago, and not as big a win as he ought to have gotten), and Darin LaHood, incredibly gerrymandered Peoria-Bloomington-and-Springfield district created to keep Aaron Schock in office before his big scandal (and LaHood winning entirely on his father's name recognition). In three majority-minority cities, the district manages to be 91% white. (I was never happier than when my neighborhood was deemed "too diverse" for Aaron Schock and we got jumped out of his district by 6 blocks and put into Cheri Bustos's.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:58 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Uhhhh... the results I'm looking at for Ohio, sent to me by a Summit County resident, show that Cordray won. What are y'all looking at?
posted by palomar at 7:58 PM on November 6


Lujan Grisham win in NM gov should mean a Dem trifecta there.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:58 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Corey Stewart, and out and proud Nazi, still got 1 million votes in VA. A lot of our fellow citizens are just flat out misogynistic, racists, fuckwads. And they will always vote Republican.

And the Illinois Nazi is at around 45k.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:59 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


CNN just called Florida for de Santis (R). BOOOOO. Racist voter suppression.
posted by Justinian at 7:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Tim Walz [D] wins gov of Minnesota.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:59 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


America isn't at war.


[citation needed]
posted by oulipian at 8:00 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


@Taniel: Civil rights attorney Anita Earls (D) has won a seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court, ousting GOP Justice Barbara Jackson. This extends Democrats' majority on the court to 5-2, and it thwarts GOP plans to pack the Court. Could be crucial for voting rights litigation, more. The GOP changed THREE electoral rules just to win this election. Instead, their efforts to rig election massively backfired in their face. Absolutely spectacular.

You can read background on the incredible length NC Republicans went to to try to prevent this.
posted by zachlipton at 8:00 PM on November 6 [69 favorites]




ABC has called the house for the Dems.

Steve King is down 51-47.

A day may come when the courage of men* fails but it is not this day.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:00 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]


We might get the other Nazi out of Congress. "in the 4th District, J.D. Scholten is leading Rep. Steve King 51 percent to 47 percent." (via 538)
posted by spamandkimchi at 8:00 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Gillum (D) concedes in FL Gov race.
posted by RolandOfEld at 8:00 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Empress, we're over here looking at the Wisconsin map.

Beat me to it....

Dane County/Madison is only about 2/3 in. That's the biggest potential source of further Evers votes.

Milwaukee is almost all in, not many more D votes to be found there, but Waukesha/Washington/Ozaukee in the Milwaukee suburbs are also almost all in, so those R strongholds don't have many more votes to report either.

Sheboygan/Manitowoc areas haven't reported yet...not sure how those will drop. Could be a wash.

Several small counties in the west/northwest haven't reported a lot of votes yet, those will favor Walker, the total numbers from any given county will be small, what the grand total will be, I'm not sure. By the time I put together a spreadsheet, you'll probably know the winner anyway.

Gut reaction: somewhat good for Evers, but not decided yet.
posted by gimonca at 8:01 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Oh thank god Faso is gone.
posted by The Whelk at 8:01 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Dont' get excited about Steve King yet. Only 11% of votes have been counted, and they could all be from Ames.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:01 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


538 has 100% chance of D House control and I still don't believe it because that part of my brain is a burned-out hole with a dead fly stuck in it
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:02 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]


Please, please, I barely survived the glimmer of hope when it looked like Ted Cruz would lose. Don't tease me with Steve White Nationalist King until it's a sure thing.
posted by skewed at 8:02 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Also: it's a lot harder to discredit hearings and investigations when they turn up evidence of actual wrongdoing

Not at all. They've already been laying the groundwork for this: the evidence is false, it's a witch hunt, the process is biased, etc. That's the point: it doesn't matter what's actually found. What matters is how it's perceived. They want the public to view it all as a partisan circus where nothing is honest or true, it's all just spin and bias.

If they muddy the waters enough it can soften the blow of any actual wrongdoing found, maybe even leave the impression in the base that it's all lies. That can yield future elections victories, or at least help hold the line.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:02 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


And there's Steve King, but I'm not letting myself hope that he'll lose.

Still, if you told me a year ago I'd be looking at the NYT projecting only a +4.4 lead for the evil shitbag, I'd have never believed it. Scholten's my Beto, I'll be sad about a loss but jesus, the strides he's made!
posted by jason_steakums at 8:02 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


If Steve King loses, this will all have been worth it.

Some of the most openly racist and corrupt voices in the GOP are about to leave the building. Good.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:02 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Uhhhh... the results I'm looking at for Ohio, sent to me by a Summit County resident, show that Cordray won. What are y'all looking at?

Politico called it for DeWine (R) over Cordray (D). DeWine is up by 6, not sure how he doesn't win unless there's a weird number of missing votes or something.

Cordray is winning Summit County though.
posted by zachlipton at 8:02 PM on November 6


The elected every two years House is going to what now? No.

The House could run a campaign that is 18 months of investigations into a line of Republican criminals that tops the full cast of the Simpsons and then follow it up with a three month (August to October) montage of, "this $RepublicanCriminal hurt your district, but more importantly they hurt Your Grandma with this $SpecificDistrictTargetedCriminalAction".

Or they could play football with the Senate GOP again.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:03 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Well, at least now that this is all over Muellermass is coming. So there's that.
posted by sjswitzer at 8:03 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


America isn't at war.

Afghanistan, anyone?
But since no one pays attention to it, I guess his point stands.
posted by greermahoney at 8:03 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Damn it, Florida man.

In an otherwise decent evening so far, Gillum is bumming me out, and I'm guessing Nelson is toast too.

The Senate stings, a bit, with Heitkamp, Donnely, Bredesen, and Nelson all going down. But the Governors - wow! Remember, we're still paying the price for the 2010 midterms, because those losses led to us losing big in the 2010 census redistricting. These new governors will supervise redistricting after the 2020 census, and that's a BIG deal.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:04 PM on November 6 [37 favorites]


Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report)
‏@Redistrict

Projection: today is the first day in history Americans have elected more than 100 women to the U.S. House of representatives.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:05 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


Only about 300 votes separating Lance (R) and Malinowski (D) in NJ-07, which is a potential flip district. Votes from the Republican counties have been tallied, but still lots of precincts out in the Dem counties (including the one I canvassed in!)
posted by apparently at 8:05 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


America isn't at war.

Afghanistan, anyone?


And a handful of other countries, increasingly and most importantly including itself.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:05 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


One wonders if the Democratic Party could have done better in Senate races if they didn't have to go rescue Menendez in New Jersey.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:06 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


NBC calling TX-07 for Fletcher (D) over Culberson (R-incumant). That's another Texas pickup in a Clinton district that was a super-close tossup in a district that's been Republican controlled since George HW Bush won his House seat ages ago.

Beto's getting his downballot revenge.
posted by zachlipton at 8:06 PM on November 6 [48 favorites]


So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)
posted by xammerboy at 8:07 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Andy Kim (D, NJ-03) is up by 395 votes with 99% of the precincts voting. This is over incumbent Tom MacArthur, he of the MacArthur amendent that almost killed the ACA. I canvassed in NJ-03 and, oh god, I want Kim to win.
posted by mcduff at 8:08 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Inauguration day at the earliest I would imagine.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:08 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


One wonders if the Democratic Party could have done better in Senate races if they didn't have to go rescue Menendez in New Jersey.

I really don't think another $2M is what would have changed the outcome for Heitkamp and Donnelly.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:08 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]




Ask [about comparing Senate results to the map going in] in a couple hours when we know about the western states. Right now it's on the border between "not great but not unexpected" and disaster.

Nah, so far even +3 or +4 is meh for Republicans. If they'd had this economy and a normal Republican President, they'd be sweeping almost all the states Trump won and making Casey stretch for it the way Cruz has instead of picking off the people we've always known were most vulnerable. Whatever's going on with Stabenow in MI is the exception to that but it seems to have come back.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:09 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


NBC is calling Iowa 1 for Abby Finkenauer. So Iowa is going from having an all-male, 3 Republicans and 1 Dem Congressional delegation to 2 women, 2 men, and at least 3 Democrats. (Probably 3 Democrats and Steve fucking King, but we'll see.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:09 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)

Til January 3rd, 2019 at the earliest when the 116th Congress begins.
posted by jedicus at 8:09 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)

Well, at least now that this is all over Muellermass is coming. So there's that.


There's still the lame duck, and an expected exodus from cabinet positions. They can do a lot of damage between tonight and when Jim Clyburn gets subpoena power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:10 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


MS Senate: Looks like the runoff is Espy [D] and Hyde-Smith [R]. Likely R hold in the runoff, barring anything crazy.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:10 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired, and the D candidate is currently up about 600 votes with two rural/exurban districts left to report. If anyone is lighting candles, could you spare one for this race? PA has a Dem executive but both chambers of the leg are filled with raving lunatic Republicans. A few pickups there would be awesome.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:12 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


NYT projecting King +2.8 now, holy... Still not even halfway counted but this is exciting.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:13 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


And here come the Dem county results! Malinowski (D) up 2500 votes, with 96% reporting and only a few precincts from Union Co (D+11) to go! I think NJ-07 goes blue. :D
posted by apparently at 8:13 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


America isn't at war.
America has been at war nearly constantly for over 230 years. It's what we do.
posted by Harry Caul at 8:13 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


@Redistrict: #OK05: Kendra Horn (D) has apparently defeated Rep. Steve Russell (R). The district voted 53%-40% for Trump in 2016. This is a HUGE upset for Democrats.

I haven't seen this call from anyone else yet, but Wasserman is pretty careful. Very much the "woah where did that come from?" district nobody was looking at.

Update: NBC is joining this call.
posted by zachlipton at 8:13 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]


oh god I need to retire and let King be a pleasant surprise (or predictable disappointment) in the morning....
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The Democratic Party has made some strides, but they still have a ways to go. They need new blood, fresh blood. We knew Nelson was a bad candidate. Yet, he was the nominee. Menendez won but it was messy. Meanwhile, we’re seeing younger people with new ideas and a different perspective (because they grew up in a different socioeconomic world than their parents) and people are buying in. As has been mentioned earlier in the thread, though, we didn’t get into this mess overnight, and we aren’t getting out of it overnight either. Still, between flipping the house and picking up governorships, this is a good start.
posted by azpenguin at 8:15 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired

Do you mean SD-38? I think Vulakovich was primaried out.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:15 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


So basically, it sounds like the big stories are going to be racist voter suppression in the South and Dem gains in red states/ areas that aren't in the South. That, of course, is barring any surprises when results from further West come in.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:15 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


I'm thinking...there was a blue wave. Look at the local races and the governorships and the more liberal ballot initiatives that have passed. But it just couldn't breach the white wall that is the Senate.

And yes, if the occupant of the white house was a "normal" R, we might be looking at a worse Senate map. We might have seen R gains in Wisconsin, Michigan, even the Minnesota Special and Pennsylvania.

(I also wonder if opioids have rotted a lot of brains in IN and OH. That crisis hit hard there.)

Barring "let's get Socialist Unitarian cat-loving cohousing going in Cheyenne and Fargo" the Senate is our biggest stumbling block.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:16 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


azpenguin: " They need new blood, fresh blood. We knew Nelson was a bad candidate. Yet, he was the nominee."

Well, okay, but Gillum was an *outstanding* candidate, and he lost by almost exactly the same amount.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:16 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


Oh was he, Chrysostom. I defer to your knowledge absolutely here.

I also want to light the "Lindsey Williams SOCIALIST!!!!!!" official Schaffer campaign signs in Etna on fire.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:16 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


And tomorrow morning we wake up and start campaigning for 2020, because the GoodGuysAndGals have to keep winning in '20 AND '22 to fully reverse the downward spiral...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:17 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Sununu [R-i] holds on to be re-elected NH governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 6


Holy shit but that these strides were made in the face of blatant gerrymandering is heartening. It feels like the long nationwide trend towards minority rule has been hauled to a stop.  Making up lost ground is still to come and will take shitloads of hard work, but it feels like at least we're no longer sliding backwards.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:18 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]


With 65% reporting in my little corner of the country (NY23), the odious Tom Reed leads Tracy Mitrano by only 2519 votes (1.7%). But alas, Tompkins county (bright blue Ithaca) is 100% in, and the rest of the district... sigh.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:18 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Williams leads incumbent Gianforte in early results for Montana's only U.S. House seat

Weighted toward cities and only a lead of 6,000 votes so far, but 6,000 votes is a significant piece of Montana's electorate. Slam him bodily, Kathleen.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:18 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Pappas [D] wins in NH-01. Not a shock, but there was some contradictory polling here that made him look vulnerable.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Damn it, Florida man

Yeah.... Every time.
posted by xammerboy at 8:21 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


jason_steakums: NYT projecting King +2.8 now, holy... Still not even halfway counted but this is exciting.

To be careful with language, I don't think that's a projection, it's a tally. Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:22 PM on November 6


Still watching Minnesota 1st District. Slight lead for Hagedorn, the Republican, right now....but no votes at all have been reported yet from Rochester/Olmsted County, which I think should provider blue votes. Hoping for a Feehan win here.
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 6


Damn it, Florida man

Yeah.... Every time.


Forget it Jake, it's Florida.
posted by gtrwolf at 8:22 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


NYT is projecting Democrats win a ~9% margin in the House popular vote. The last time we saw a margin like that was 08, amidst a collapsing economy and a loathed war.

Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?
posted by Automocar at 8:22 PM on November 6 [50 favorites]


Damn, the Ohio governor's race looks like it's lost by a significant margin, which really doesn't bode well for 2020.

Yeah, I'm definitely having a "WTF OHIO!!!!" moment, especially considering that Sherrod Brown (D, progressive) tromped all over Renacci (R, Neanderthal). If you look at the county-level maps on CNN, there's a bunch of suburban/exurban counties that Brown won where apparently the voters had some kind of hysterical contrariness reaction and went R for the state-level offices.

(Or, y'know, maybe that ebbil "liberal" mainstream media hasn't done nearly enough to clearly point out when "mainstream" Republican candidates are fucking lying their asses off so that even low-info voters might begin to grasp that if they like the policies of a Democratic politician in one office maybe they should think twice before voting for a Republican for another office just because they kinda recognize his name. . . . . but that's a rant for another day.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:22 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump: Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!

haha.gif
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Things don't look good for McCaskill. Fox is calling it for Hawley. Not a huge surprise at this point but I'm pretty disappointed.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:23 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Afghanistan, anyone?

Democrats Want To Take On The War In Afghanistan If They Win The House
As Democrats plan for a potential future in which they have control of the U.S. House, lawmakers, candidates and outside groups close to the party are quietly preparing a new push against the overlooked war in Afghanistan.
...
So Democrats are considering long-discussed proposals to torpedo the war’s entire legal justification — the sweeping post-9/11 congressional authorization that has been used to support U.S. military action well beyond Afghan borders — and tie funding for the campaign to clearly outlined strategic goals and troop reductions. There’s also talk of using new oversight powers to hold top officials, military commanders, defense contractors and foreign partners accountable for accusations of human rights violations, corruption and political posturing at the cost of human lives. And while party leaders are loath to commit to a particular course, they feel certain this is an issue their colleagues and their political base see as a priority.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:23 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


41% of precincts reporting and Scholten still leads King by almost 10,000 votes. Still bracing for a heartbreak...
posted by Jeanne at 8:23 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Brian Williams: "Over 100 women have been elected to the House"

Maddow: "That's the most ever right? This calls for a cake"
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:24 PM on November 6 [59 favorites]


Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?

Not just losing overall, but losing seats from the status quo ante.

Never let anyone tell you you live in a democracy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:24 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


Automocar: "Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?"

I'm not going to argue the Senate is fair, it's not at all. But they only have 1/3 of seats up, that 9 points does not translate to the states involved, necessarily.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:24 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Democrat Malinowski takes NJ-07 from Leonard Lance! Flipped!
posted by apparently at 8:24 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


To be careful with language, I don't think that's a projection, it's a tally. Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.

It's their "Live estimate of the final vote", whatever they mean by that. And it's maddening, I'm trying very very hard not to hope too much.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:25 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Exit poll data on TX senate race shows Beto with huge margins among all non-white voters. White voters, OTOH... Sigh.
posted by TwoStride at 8:25 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


@baseballot: #MN08 is officially Republicans' first House pickup of the night. Stauber (R) defeats Radinovich (D) in an ancestrally Democratic, working-class district that lurched heavily toward Trump.

That district went Trump +15.6 in 2016. The new map.
posted by zachlipton at 8:25 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Stabenow keeps on stabbin'.

Benjy Sarlin: NBC News projects Debbie Stabenow (D) wins re-election over John James (R), a pro-Trump African American veteran with a lot of fans in the WH and conservative media.
posted by Jpfed at 8:25 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


I can't find a reliable online source of actual vote tallies, but Twitter tells me that the New Hampshire state senate has flipped to the Democrats. And in my little district of the state (Rockingham 21), it appears all four state representative spots went to the Democratic candidates, some of whom I hosted at my house. I really do love this state, even if we like to "pull a Massachusetts" every so often and go with a Republican governor.
posted by schoolgirl report at 8:25 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Stabenow [D] took a while, but has won in MI Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:25 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.
Yeah, that's true, but the Dems just flipped a state senate seat in Sioux City, and it looks like Republicans may lose two congressional seats and quite possibly the governorship. (Knock wood.) So even if King wins, I think anti-King sentiment is going to have been a factor in this election.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:26 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


HA my local wing nut State senator Konni Burton just conceded to the Dem opponent. Hot damn.
posted by emjaybee at 8:26 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Never let anyone tell you you live in a democracy.

Luckily no Republican will ever say that these days and will always respond with WE DON'T WANT MOB RULE WE'RE A REPUBLIC NOT A DEMOCRACY for some reason.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:28 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Brat has not conceded, but Spanberger claiming victory and Brat allies lamenting loss of the seat. (VA-07)
posted by COD at 8:28 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Florida Sen heading for a recount?
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 8:29 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


...And in less flashy Iowa races, still watching Naig vs Gannon for Agriculture Secretary, which I care about insofar as fishy campaign finance stuff has been happening (and also - I don't think we're going to get PROGRESSIVE agriculture policy in Iowa anytime soon, but can we get a LITTLE pushback against enormous corn-soybean monoculture. Plz.)
posted by Jeanne at 8:29 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Tina Smith wins in MN Senate (and Amy Klobuchar, but we all knew that). I'm glad to see that if only to STFU the people who thought that Smith would go down in flaaaames because she's not Al Franken. (This is why a deep bench is a good thing to have...). Glad to see MN represented by two Democratic women Senators!
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:30 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


At this juncture, I would like to thank Metafilter for all their hard work and for suggesting I drink Dark and Stormys tonight. Both have made this evening much easier to get through.
posted by dannyboybell at 8:31 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


We haven't been talking a lot about state races, but:

@JonCampbellGAN: That's it: The [New York] state Senate GOP is conceding defeat. Democrats will control the Senate, Assembly and governor's office come January.

@baseballot: New York becomes ANOTHER Democratic trifecta.
posted by zachlipton at 8:32 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


538: Proposal 3 in Michigan has officially passed with 67% of the vote. That will result in big changes to voting in the Wolverine State, which will now have automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, straight-ticket voting, and the ability to vote absentee without an excuse.

Also, Nate Silver: Steve King now down 5 points with more than 50 percent reporting. The Upshot still says the race leans his way, but I’m not sure I buy that.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:32 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Marc Elrich won his race for Country Executive and this is a bigger thing then you think, the top elected executive of a major metroploain area is now gonna be a cranky socialist backed by DC DSA
posted by The Whelk at 8:32 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Yeah, that's true, but the Dems just flipped a state senate seat in Sioux City

This would be the scummy Rick Bertrand getting turfed out for the awesome Jackie Smith! Bertrand, who the local Indivisible crew went after hard for never showing up to town halls, resigned his seat during his last term, and then jumped back in the race very late this year. And I'm so glad to see him go!

Woodbury county results have been a weird mixed bag, though.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:32 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I am fucking done with this for tonight. I have enough Lagunitas Brown Shugga in my system to put down a hippo. Good night all
posted by RedShrek at 8:33 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


Brat has not conceded, but Spanberger claiming victory and Brat allies lamenting loss of the seat.

And old Cantor (R) Republicans enjoying the schadenfreude.
posted by Justinian at 8:33 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


(R, Neanderthal)…

Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:33 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Lawrence O'Donnell speculated that the next Speaker of the House might not be Nancy Pelosi but rather... Adam Schiff. I gotta say as somebody who voted for him hard today that I'd be okay with that. (I'm also ok with Pelosi.)
posted by Justinian at 8:34 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


House Intelligence Chairman-elect Adam Schiff on MSNBC name-checking Bob Mueller is my everything right now.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:34 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


(It's been kind of fun ranking all the school board members and house of Delegates such the DSA is picking up, the old advice to start by electing dog catchers is working out)
posted by The Whelk at 8:34 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


McCaskill conceded. I know she wasn't always the most reliable Dem, but I've also known enough crazy backwoods Missourians in my time that I have a lot of respect for how long she was able to thread the needle. Here's hoping her post-Senate time goes to something useful (not punditry).
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:36 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


@MIRSnews: [Michigan] Proposal 1, the legalization of recreational marijuana, has passed.

Lawrence O'Donnell speculated that the next Speaker of the House might not be Nancy Pelosi but rather... Adam Schiff. I gotta say as somebody who voted for him hard today that I'd be okay with that. (I'm also ok with Pelosi.)

Personally, I'd be rather ok with Pelosi taking the gavel for a while, because she's damn good at what she does and can get a Democratic House off on a strong foot, and then passing it to a new generation of leadership.
posted by zachlipton at 8:36 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


I said in the first comment I ever made here that I wasn't advocating for mega threads every week between now and then, but I've been awfully glad for them.

I knew we weren't going to flip CD5 here in CO and it still sucks that Lamborn (R-i) got reelected without even working for it. Stephany was so good, dammit. The results on ballot initiatives are mixed. Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution, but didn't vote to better fund our schools or require a greater minimum setback distance for new fracking development. I'm taking some solace that currently my other crush candidate, Jena Griswold, is leading Wayne Williams in the Secretary of State race.
posted by danielleh at 8:36 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Walker down by 14,000-odd votes with 74% reporting.

Ellison holding an 8% lead over Wardlow for MN AG with 58% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:36 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


It could have been better, could have been worse, but look at the firsts this election: First openly gay governor. First American Indian women elected to Congress...one of them LGBTQ to boot. First Muslim women elected to Congress. Potentially recordbreaking numbers of women elected to the House.

I'm hoping to see that the real wave was in state and local elections. In MI, in addition to Whitmer winning, Stabenow (now apparently) retaining her seat, and the passage of a couple of good ballot proposals to eliminate gerrymandering and make voting easier, we're looking at Democratic women winning the races for Secretary of State and Attorney General (after YEARS of white/Republican/men-pick 2). Dems are also looking to make deep inroads into the large R majorities in the state house and senate.
posted by Preserver at 8:36 PM on November 6 [31 favorites]


So if Herr Twitler cans Mueller as seems possible now that the election's now wrapped up, are the incoming Democrats gonna be all "don't pack your bags, we may have a job for you in just over a month."

I hope so.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:37 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I’m watching Knute Buehler (R) concede the Oregon governor’s race right now. Yesss. Nike CEO Phil Knight reportedly gave Buehler $2.5 million for his stupid campaign.
posted by chrchr at 8:38 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


Pelosi from the stage at the DCCC claiming her history is airing immediately after msnbc interview w schiff. If it’s a race between them for leadership the producers made a solid booking choice.

Pelosi is. . . Not inspiring. (Former constituent but also a realist).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:38 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Hard night for the Senate. But if Steve King goes down in the House, I'll still take it.

And just as I resign myself to the outcome, *now* 538 catches on: ... there’s a surprisingly close race developing in the New York 23rd District, where GOP Rep. Tom Reed leads Democrat Tracy Mitrano just 52 to 48 percent.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


McCaskill gave me one of the highlights of my year. She was the graduation speaker at Missouri State this year for my daughter's graduation. After the ceremony, my father-in-law, a die-hard Trump supporter, was raving about how great her speech is. I looked him straight in the eye and said, you know she is a Democrat, right? He didn't. The look on his face was priceless. I only wish somebody had caught this exchange on tape.
posted by COD at 8:39 PM on November 6 [53 favorites]


Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution

Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:39 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


Early reporting from Arizona shows some good signs:

US Senate: Sinema (D) and McSally (R) are just about tied, with 49% each, but Sinema has about 2000 votes more at this point. A real nailbiter here.

US Congress (District 9): Greg Stanton (D) leading Stephen Ferrara (R) by a wide margin so far.

And a race that is near and dear to my heart...

Maricopa Community College District Governing Board: It looks like we MAY have elected FOUR sane board members (a bare majority out of 7) to undo some of the damage the cryptoRepublican crazies have caused over the past seven months. If these numbers hold, I may be able to keep my job and health care, which would be, you know, cool.
posted by darkstar at 8:40 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


I got to vote for Mazie Hirono today so I'll at least be 100% pleased with that.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:40 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


Dino Rossi (R) gave a pretty glum speech to supporters in WA-08. Very early but if Kim Schrier wins she'll be the first Democrat to represent the district since it was created in 1983.
posted by edeezy at 8:40 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Pelosi: "let's hear it more for pre-existing medical conditions"

She meant that in the sense of "cheer more for preserving coverage for such conditions," but what actually came out of her mouth amounted to asking the crowd to cheer for disease.
posted by zachlipton at 8:40 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Walker down by 14,000-odd votes with 74% reporting.


Hmm, I'm seeing Evers up by only 4,085 with 78% reporting in, and that's up from a few minutes ago. Dane County just reported in another chunk of votes.

Join the fun and listen live to Wisconsin Public Radio!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:41 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Good news in Oregon, I was getting slightly antsy about that one.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:41 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


I'm very pleased with Michigan results. My chosen candidate for state house doesn't look like she's going to win but she got closer than any Dem has in years. The GOP had never spent a cent on the race and had to swoop in with $225K to save it. Proposals 2 and 3 passing are going to make a giant difference in future races, too.
posted by MaritaCov at 8:42 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Cindy Axne wins election to U.S. House in Iowa's 3rd congressional district. #APracecall at 10:39 p.m. CST.

That's a nice pickup over David Young in a seat that has defied Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 8:42 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


> Personally, I'd be rather ok with Pelosi taking the gavel for a while, because she's damn good at what she does and can get a Democratic House off on a strong foot, and then passing it to a new generation of leadership.

That's not a thing that really happens, though. If she's elected Speaker, as she likely will, she's going to hold it until 2020. They're not going to boot her in a few months and show a lack of unity to voters and constituents.

I'm perfectly fine with a real fight for the gavel in January. She was unquestionably an effective Speaker, but let's make her earn it back.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:43 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


(Btw, if you are curious - I am only updating my tracker when the Politico bot calls a race, just for my own sanity. So sometimes I am lagging a bit.)
posted by Chrysostom at 8:43 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


House Intelligence Chairman-elect Adam Schiff


After the complete and totally corrupt behavior from Nunes and the other Republicans on that committee these past two years, I have to say, this is delicious.
posted by darkstar at 8:43 PM on November 6 [38 favorites]


Nancy Pelosi is giving a Bill Clinton-esque laundry list of extremely focus-groupy policy things "reducing prescription drugs for seniors", etc., and then talking about bipartisanship.

She then moves on to the honoring-our-veterans part.

I really want her to be the Speaker I know she can be. But unfortunately, it sounds like that'll take some pressure from the left.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:44 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Uh, wha?

You know that exception in the 13th amendment that says you can treat convicts as free labor? Colorado outlawed it.
posted by cmfletcher at 8:44 PM on November 6 [68 favorites]


The Whelk: (It's been kind of fun ranking all the school board members and house of Delegates such the DSA is picking up, the old advice to start by electing dog catchers is working out)

Welp - that's exactly the playbook the Gross Old Pervert party used to build up its bench, and playing the long game (and the racism game) seems to have paid off. I like to think the DSA can have its efforts pay off similarly, sans of course the racism card. Let's go from "red" to "pinko!"
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:44 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Self care note: super tux cart is awsome.
posted by ocschwar at 8:44 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution

Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess


Yeah, slavery was allowable "as a punishment for a crime" in the constitution. It was 50/50 last time it came up two years ago; glad we don't have to do this again!

Also Dems appear to have taken the State Senate back (they have leads in all the seats they need to flip) so they have the trifecta now here, too.
posted by jackflaps at 8:44 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Yeah, the vote tally updated right after I posted.

We also picked up 3? 4? governorships so far. In Kansas no less!
posted by Autumnheart at 8:45 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


In my (admittedly limited) memory, Pelosi has always been terrible at communicating with the public (just as Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid were). She's fantastic at whipping votes and raising money: it seems like Dems could do better solving their problems with aging, overloaded leadership by pushing the public outreach parts of the job to more charismatic members and let Pelosi manage substantive stuff in the background. I've always been skeptical of the anti-Pelosi stuff because a) people really hate women and b) of course Republicans would attack one of the most capable Democratic legislators.

(fake careless shrug)
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:45 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]


…and for suggesting I drink Dark and Stormys tonight…

Woohoo! Tomorrow's hangover is going to be so worth it.  Damn but these are tasty.  Sad to see the carbon tax initiative looking like it's failing in Washington state, if I'm reading the results correctly through my dark rum buzz.  It wasn't perfect by any means, but I had hopes for it setting the stage for other states to write better ones.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:46 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Dane county still has approx. 50 precincts which haven't reported yet. But there are four counties left that haven't reported any precincts at all (Menominee County only has two precincts). I have so much anxiety about this particular election and I don't even live in WI anymore!
posted by acidnova at 8:46 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Nancy Pelosi is giving a Bill Clinton-esque laundry list of extremely focus-groupy policy things "reducing prescription drugs for seniors", etc., and then talking about bipartisanship.

She knows that a lot of tonight's winners are New Dems and Blue Dogs, not Progressives. She's smart and she wants that gavel back, and she's not going to get it back with just the Metafilter vote this time. A lot of people are going to learn what kind of victory we won isn't all sunshine and roses, but that's for later and tonight we can be happy we get to have that fight at all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:48 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


She should be Whip then, and graciously and generously pass the mantle of Speaker on to someone who can be the new face of progressive, democratic leadership in this country.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:48 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Via Josh Marshall retweet, Iowa started off the night with a Repub. Governor + 3 GOP Reps + 1 Dem Rep. Could end the night with ZERO Republicans, including the loss of racist Steve King.

I'll never make another ethanol joke if Steve King is booted out tonight, I promise.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:48 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


In "here in Indiana we'll take any shred of hope we can get" news, JD Ford [D] has become the first openly LGBT member of the state legislature. And he did it in a State Senate district that's considered competitive, not a solid Dem district.

In less good news, It looks like Republicans will keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State Senate here (at least 34/50 seats, only 25 of which are up in any given election), although it's unclear at this point whether they'll keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State House (had 70/100 seats prior to this election, need 67).
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:49 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


In Oregon, Kate Brown (D) wins her first full term.

Here in Portland, Jo Ann Hardesty elected black city council member. She's a fierce advocate for affordable housing here. If you're familiar with Oregon demographics, you know how white this place is and how housing prices are out of control.

Good news on the ballot measure front too.

I would have liked to have seen Greg Walden, our one and only Republican congresscritter, defeated, but that was always a long shot. Eastern and Central Oregon is a tough nut to crack.
posted by vverse23 at 8:49 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]




Dem pickup in MN-02. Angie Craig defeats the odious Jason Lewis.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Steve King has pulled ahead...slightly on IA04
posted by RedShrek at 8:50 PM on November 6


Damn it, Florida man

FL is officially a red state. Trump junior is now governor and a two-term governor that never won more than 49% of the vote and everyone seems to despise is now our SECOND republican senator. We may have flipped an odd seat here or there but I really hope people stop with the "FL is purple" or FL is on the verge of going Blue BS. FL democrats are so used to losing that they don't know how to run a campaign that anyone thinks they may win. FL is truly a lost cause.
posted by photoslob at 8:51 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I would be happy if my Representative, the feckless Steny Hoyer (D-MD), ceded Majority Whip to Ms. Pelosi and dedicated his time to overseeing revisions to brochures in the visitors’ center.
posted by wintermind at 8:51 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Pelosi is. . . Not inspiring. (Former constituent but also a realist).

She gave a perfectly serviceable speech for the ribbon cutting at the new Denny's opening off the interstate.

But it really isn't the Speaker's job to give inspiring speeches. They are there to wrangle votes, and she does that like nobody's business. Obamacare could perhaps more accurately be called Pelosicare.
posted by Justinian at 8:51 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


Dem pickup in MN-02. Angie Craig defeats the odious Jason Lewis.

Hallelujah! I’m sure that asshole will go back to talk radio, but better that than public office.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:52 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Steve King's up up literally 40 votes with 69% precincts voting. I'm afraid he's got the edge in the small, slow-to-report precincts.
posted by skewed at 8:52 PM on November 6


Fuck yeah, Kate Brown.
posted by cortex at 8:52 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


A bright spot in a grim night for the Senate: Tester (D) appears to be doing quite well in Montana. He's a good guy and I'm glad.
posted by Justinian at 8:53 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


I like to think the DSA can have its efforts pay off similarly, sans of course the racism card. Let's go from "red" to "pinko!"

One big narrative I think going unsaid so far is the build up of the democratic back bench by this, wich was very very low and filled with people mostly over 60. A huge uptick in elected officials in low level positions cause filter up to more viable national level party which currently has the problem of having like 6 or 7 people near retirement age they shuffle around as needed.
posted by The Whelk at 8:53 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


VA-07 goes to Spanberger. Fuck you, Brat. Carried by Cantor voters, according to Amy Walter.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:54 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


PBS just called VA-7 for Spanberger, 50.1% to 48.7%, over Tea Party favorite Dave Brat. The latter, as they just pointed out, defeated Eric Cantor and in doing so basically torpedoed immigration reform by showing the Republicans that doing so would cost them their seats. Intriguing.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:54 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


>Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)

>>That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.


Holy shit he actually lost!!
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:54 PM on November 6 [49 favorites]


Worth noting that Beto and Scholten both centered their campaigns around going out to every community and pounding the pavement, talking to voters everywhere no matter who they normally vote for, and standing firm behind Dem principles the whole time they talked to skeptical Republicans. Now imagine if every Dem race was run this way and not just the long shots...
posted by jason_steakums at 8:54 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]




Oof. Iowa Governor's race is looking scary. Basically tied, with mostly rural counties still out.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:56 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


@SamWangPhD: Same-day voter registration passing in Maryland, 67-33.This could bring 7% of the voting-age population in Maryland onto the rolls. If automatic or same-day registration were passed nationwide, it would mean close to 40 million new registered voters.

The big story of the next two years needs to be Dems using their gains tonight to make voting rights a top priority issue everywhere we can. We're making a down payment on that tonight with initiatives like these and Florida Amendment 4.
posted by zachlipton at 8:56 PM on November 6 [52 favorites]



(R, Neanderthal)…

Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.


I’ll have you know we are a very progressive bunch- nary a republican among us!
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 8:56 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


Anne Helen Petersen has done great work in making me realize that the Montana/Wyoming/Dakotas/etc area is the place I understand the least and will never get. But good for Tester and America, fingers crossed!
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:57 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Semi-human burning cross Steve King holds on.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:57 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]




NBC just called IA-04 for Steve King (R Nazi)
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


WA-1631 carbon tax initiative is down 56-44 after approximately a bazillion ads.
posted by SakuraK at 8:58 PM on November 6


OregonLive showing a supermajority in the state house for Dems. Dems need 3 of the 7 remaining undecided state senate seats to have a supermajority there as well. This along with Kate winning makes for a great night.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 8:59 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Bring on the ethanol jokes! Phew.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:59 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


@Redistrict#GA07: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) defeats Rep. Rob Woodall (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 51%-45% for Trump in 2016 and @CookPolitical considers this an upset for Democrats.

That race wasn't polled much, but it was definitely learning R.

Fun fact: @politico_chris: .@Carolyn4GA7 becomes the first white Democrat to hold a congressional seat in the Deep South since Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) left office in 2015. #GA07
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


soren_lorensen: "In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired, and the D candidate is currently up about 600 votes with two rural/exurban districts left to report. If anyone is lighting candles, could you spare one for this race? PA has a Dem executive but both chambers of the leg are filled with raving lunatic Republicans. A few pickups there would be awesome."

With 100% reporting, Lindsay "socialist" Williams has won. 59,231 to 58,933. Dem gain in PA-SD-38!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


In Washington state, mixed results so far on the state-wide ballot measures:
  • I-1631 (carbon tax) losing, 44%
  • I-1634 (no local soda taxes) winning, 54%
  • I-940 (police accountability) winning, 60%
  • I-1639 (gun control) winning, 61%
These numbers will change as mail-in ballots are counted; I'm not sure

My whole family volunteered for the Initiative 940 campaign last year. Then the state legislature enacted the law but screwed it up because of a procedural mis-step, so the Supreme Court sent it back to voters. We’ll be very relieved to see it approved, finally.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:01 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Steve King's been in office since 2013. According to historical trends, he has seven more years before the liberation army pins him in his bunker.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:01 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


WA-1639 approves lowering the age to buy assault rifles 60-40, though, proving that we do occasionally vote for our own interests. WA state election results
posted by SakuraK at 9:02 PM on November 6


Couple of disappointing close calls in PA. GOP holds on narrowly in PA-01, PA-10, and PA-16.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 PM on November 6


Yeah, the WA votes are weird. Gun control but no soda taxes?

Probably haven't counted my vote yet, so here's hoping!
posted by Windopaene at 9:06 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Dem pickup in NJ-02, Jeff Van Drew.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


King's basically never even had a hard fight before, he's breezed through elections prior to this. Vilsack came closest and lost by 8 points, nobody else got close. Here's hoping Scholten's up for a rematch in two years.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:06 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Dana Rohrabacher (R - Moscow) in CA-48 is ahead by... 81 votes out of 105,000. I believe that's not a good result for him since absentees in CA trend Republican. He probably wanted some padding out of the absentees.

Fuck this guy.
posted by Justinian at 9:07 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


Gun control but no soda taxes?

The position of all right thinking people.
posted by great_radio at 9:07 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


WI is at 85% reporting and Walker just pulled into the lead. But it's absolutely neck and neck right now with approx. 200 votes separating the two.
posted by acidnova at 9:08 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


So, can anyone tell me what's up with Nevada?
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:09 PM on November 6


> PBS just called VA-7 for Spanberger, 50.1% to 48.7%

YAY! I wrote postcards for Spanberger!
posted by kristi at 9:09 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Well, the good news in Arizona is that Kate Gallego (ex-wife of my beloved congressman Ruben Gallego) is the next mayor of Phoenix. She is replacing Greg Stanton, who left due to term limits, but who was just elected to CD9. That seat was left vacant by Kyrsten Sinema in her bid for Senate against Tucson Republican Martha McSally.

Which... is a nail-biter.
posted by Superplin at 9:09 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


> Dana Rohrabacher (R - Moscow) in CA-48 is ahead by... 81 votes out of 105,000.

Yeah, I just started refreshing California obsessively. Rohrbacher (R) and Mimi Walters (R) are both running close with very low fractions reported. Duncan Hunter (R), though, looks like he'll be re-elected.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:09 PM on November 6


So, can anyone tell me what's up with Nevada?

The polls have been closed for 3 hours and not a single vote has been reported and like 2/3 of the vote is early vote and should have been counted very quickly. That's what's up! It's Nevada, whatcha gonna do.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on November 6


(R, Neanderthal)…

Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:33 PM on November 6


Fair point. My apologies. How about "Renacci (R, Shithead)"? (He was one of the assholes argle-bargling about giving Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his N Korea nothingburger - it's good to see him go down in flames.)
posted by soundguy99 at 9:10 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I take credit for Spanberger (D) in VA-07. She won by like 5000 votes and I sent at least 15,000 texts. They were all to my sister in Glen Allen but still.
posted by Justinian at 9:11 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


@NVElect

People are still currently voting in Clark, Washoe, and Lyon because of long lines when the polls closed at 7pm. Once all voters in line have voted, results will be released on SilverStateElection.com
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:11 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Superplin, I can't even watch those numbers anymore. McSally (R) is now up by 5k votes...with the Green candidate having taken over 30k, natch.

Time for bed.
posted by darkstar at 9:12 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


BETO JUST SCREAMED IM SO FUCKING PROUD OF YOU GUYS ON LIVE TEEVEE And MSNBC is NOT on a delay, apparently.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:12 PM on November 6 [118 favorites]


Yeah, I just started refreshing California obsessively

Given the heavy mail vote, you may be refreshing for days.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:12 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]




GA-GOV: It's been a shitshow here with Kemp running his own election process with broken machines and excuses, outstanding questions on 50,000 provisional ballots and registrations (court order says they have two additional days to confirm identity, so not all ballots will be counted this evening), last-weekend robocalls from a white supremacist group, and our own Sunday surprise with Kemp claiming Democrats hacked the SoS office over what probably was whistleblowing that involved no release of data. (Lesson for white-hat security testers, be careful about how and when you blow that whistle.)

From what I saw during my week in Florida, the Trump-esque strategy of criminal accusations may have worked against Gillum as well. But in GA, it was uphill in the snow both ways fighting an entrenched machine that used every dirty trick in the book. Although a bit of humor (which probably reflects my bias) was Pence continuing the grand old tradition of doofus Hoosier VPs by suggesting he was as big as Oprah, but that probably played well at a rally to the faithful out in the middle of the Savannah river.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:13 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


FL is truly a lost cause.

FL just got 1.4 milllion new voters, about 10% of the voting populace, who have good reasons not to vote for Republicans.

Hrm. How many of those were counted as "blue" in the color wars? Do they count people who've been disenfranchised but could, technically, possibly vote again, if they petitioned just right?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:13 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


Cautiously hopeful for Anthony Brindisi (D) in NY. All but one of the counties are reporting 100% — except for Tioga, who have reported 0%. What's up with that?
posted by scruss at 9:14 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


LOL, the megathread has had fewer than 10 comments in over 6 hours.
posted by darkstar at 9:14 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


an online friend from texas shared the following couplet:
win or lose
fuck ted cruz
posted by murphy slaw at 9:14 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


36% reporting in MT, Williams up 63 votes on Gianforte, Tester up 53-45.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!
posted by Justinian at 9:14 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


Canadian chiming in to say ...

I've been pretty much media insulated all day. Checked the Guardian for headlines a few minutes ago and and saw the Democrats had taken the House and that "majority of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction". And the immediate feeling is YEAH! Well done democracy and all you Americans who have made it work tonight.

I will now go for a walk and smoke a legal joint of marijuana.
posted by philip-random at 9:15 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!

Don't blame me, I voted for neither.
posted by rhizome at 9:16 PM on November 6


@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher wins election to U.S. House in Texas's 7th congressional district. #APracecall at 11:12 p.m. CST.

That's over incumbent Culberson (R) in what was predicted as a super close tossup. Let me rephrase my earlier statement of "Beto's revenge" in these Texas races to, in the spirit of his concession speech, "Beto's fucking revenge."
posted by zachlipton at 9:16 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


I went looking for the early California results. Started with Google. "Gavin Newsom is predicted to win"... dude. I wanted news. That's not news; it's olds. Nobody is looking at the governor's race.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:16 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


scruss: "Cautiously hopeful for Anthony Brindisi (D) in NY. All but one of the counties are reporting 100% — except for Tioga, who have reported 0%. What's up with that?"

Politico has it called for Brindisi.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Ugh, now that Newsom is officially in we can start bitching about him, right?
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:16 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Over 70% registered voter turnout in my county!
posted by loquacious at 9:17 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


RE Newsom: he's better than a Republican celebrity.

(Damning with faint praise.)
posted by darkstar at 9:17 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!

Calling it now. He's the democratic nominee for president in 2024. And he loses. Because he is disgusting.
posted by great_radio at 9:17 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


OregonLive just posted an update. Democratic SUPERMAJORITIES in both state houses (18-11 senate with 1 undecided, 38-22 house) and Democratic governor in one night! Is that a superfecta?
posted by Mister Fabulous at 9:17 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


Oh, and I'll echo a comment up above and say please, please, PLEASE, consider giving the voting rights organizations engaged in legal activism down here some financial love.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:18 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


LOL, the megathread has had fewer than 10 comments in over 6 hours.

The megathread is not a place, it is a people.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:19 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


Tom Reed hangs on in NY-23.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:19 PM on November 6


Okay...like...the thing is...I don't actually want Dem supermajorities everywhere, I just want Republicans to stop being blatantly racist and cartoonishly evil.
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:19 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


There was no reason not to bitch about him before. Newsom has plenty of things to bitch about. They are bog-standard, run-of-the-mill social-progressive Democratic flaws, but it's not like he's short of them. Croneyism, big business, an amazing knack for avoiding situations where actual empathy might be required.

And yeah. He may well be gearing for a run at the White House in 2024. I'm hoping we have much better candidates by then.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:20 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


White women put Cruz over the top.

That is just incomprehensible to me.

Just. What.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:20 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Superplin, I can't even watch those numbers anymore. McSally (R) is now up by 5k votes...with the Green candidate having taken over 30k, natch. Time for bed.

Yeah, same. The state-wide races are a bloodbath. We've known for weeks that Garcia was toast, but my ladyfolks Katie Hobbs (SOS) and January Contreras (AG) had disappointing showings.

After my 14-hour shift at the polls, I was very smart to stop for a bottle of wine on the way home. Sigh.
posted by Superplin at 9:21 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I don't actually want Dem supermajorities everywhere

lol I do.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:21 PM on November 6 [71 favorites]


He may well be gearing for a run at the White House in 2024. I'm hoping we have much better candidates by then.

I'm hoping for an incumbent by then.
posted by Tsuga at 9:22 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


White women put Cruz over the top.

Eh,,, doesn't that depend on which votes you count first and which votes you count last?
posted by great_radio at 9:22 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


So, I know it may be too early, but how many women were elected to public office? Here in NM, there were a LOT of women on the ballot.
posted by annsunny at 9:22 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Plus his (Newsom) wine is WAY overpriced.
posted by notyou at 9:23 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


White women put Cruz over the top.

That is just incomprehensible to me.

Just. What.


I mean...
posted by TwoStride at 9:23 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


White women put Cruz over the top.

That is just incomprehensible to me.


psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:24 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


Minnesota tight races:

Minnesota 1st: Feehan (D) just pulled into a very, very small lead.

Minnesota AG: Ellison lead down to four points with 80% of precincts in. With most of Hennepin and Ramsey counties in already, this one is tight. Media is still calling for Ellison, hope that stands up.

Hennepin County Sheriff: Hutch leading by a scant 1% over the odious Stanek, who sent Hennepin County officers to attack protesters at Standing Rock.
posted by gimonca at 9:24 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Man, Steve King - an actual, unvarnished Nazi - winning in IA really stings.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:24 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Okay, now I'm pretty sure that Brindisi took NY-22 from the incumbent Tenney (R). Good!
posted by scruss at 9:25 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Overall, despite disappointments, tonight's results are far better than I'd have let myself hope two years ago, and those gains mean everything. Thank you to all of you volunteers and donors and all the other megathread addicts here keeping us informed and engaged!
posted by jason_steakums at 9:25 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Some slight good news out of Tennessee, Nashville voters approved a charter amendment to create a community oversight board to oversee the police, a victory for Black Lives Matter organizers vs $500k in F.O.P spending.
posted by ghharr at 9:25 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


Plus his (Newsom) wine is WAY overpriced.

Yes, but/and his cousin (Joanna) is WAY overdue for a new album.
posted by witchen at 9:25 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Sean Moody (R) concedes in Maine governor race so we have Janet Mills (D) to replace idiot LePage. Just need Jared Golden to get the RCV votes in Maine 2 and we'll be fully Dem/Independent.
posted by merocet at 9:26 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


White women put Trump over the top.

We have a huge number of white women who want to live as June Cleaver, and will vote for whatever guy promises that's the life they're supposed to have. They want to tend children (not young messy children, of course; the entertaining kind who go to school for several hours during the week and are off with friends for the weekends), have someone else pay for a house in a pleasant neighborhood, and leave them with the minor tasks of housekeeping (possibly with the help of a maid) and shopping for gifts.

They don't want to think about injustice or social class; they want to believe that if we all follow The Right Rules, everyone gets to live in a Cleaver household. Nevermind the billions who would be horrified to live that way - it's what they want, and that means it's good for everyone.

Trouble is, they haven't figured out that it doesn't work that way and that the men who promise it, are lying douchebags. But they can't bring themselves to vote for someone with "weird" ideas, so they sigh and vote for whatever asshole reminds them most of 50's sitcom dads.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:26 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


Ok, Gavin Newsom is annoying and glib and maybe other things but maybe not terrible? Also he has a fascinating remote cousin.
posted by sjswitzer at 9:27 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


White women put Cruz over the top.

That is just incomprehensible to me.

psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.


Agreed, but, uh, white men in particular can throw no stones here.
posted by rewil at 9:27 PM on November 6 [71 favorites]


And Gavin's remote cousin Tommy was the best Assistant Director Johnny Carson's band ever had. (And a slightly more dynamic personality than Gavin)
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:29 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Here are some of the historic firsts from the midterm elections (Buzzfeed)

Naturally their list does not include some of the amazing local people I canvassed for, like Angela Conley, first person of color elected to our county commission. As with so many of these historic Firsts - it was amazing to volunteer for someone who makes history like that. It is outrageous that this line had not yet been crossed.
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:29 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Bill Nelson concedes.
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 9:30 PM on November 6


The Wisconsin governor’s race is a fuckin’ nailbiter. Walker is down by 300 votes with 89% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:30 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Bill Nelson concedes.

I thought you had to run in an election to concede.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:31 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


> Tom Reed hangs on in NY-23.

Welp, that's it for me for tonight. Our little county went D+51 and we were still outvoted by the surrounding farmland, so it's off to lick our wounds and try again in two years.

> Steve King - an actual, unvarnished Nazi - winning in IA really stings.

Yeah, that and the Senate losses do hurt. But we have the House, and there will be investigations. And we won a bunch of governors and statehouses.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:31 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Missouri voters just hiked the minimum wage by 53 percent - Alexia Fernández Campbell, Vox. They join Arkansas in voters approving minimum wage hikes.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:31 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]


Goddammit, Steve Watkins [R] pulled it off in KS-02.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!

Yeah, I'm sure you blue area Californians are confident. Meanwhile, I live behind the Orange Curtain where nothing is taken for granted.

(I'm just glad I don't have to cross a state boundary when I want to go get some decent Taiwanese food.)
posted by FJT at 9:32 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


How the ever loving fuck did Rick Scott get elected to the Senate? He defrauded the public of millions and was a complete shit show or a governor.

I'm convinced Ted Cruz manipulated the voting machines btw. Or if not the machines, the local tallies.
posted by fshgrl at 9:32 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Shhh Autumnheart! Walker +750 votes now!
posted by Jpfed at 9:32 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Rust Moranis: "I thought you had to run in an election to concede."

There's not actually an award in these threads for most consistently snide commentary.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:33 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


In WA State which is where I live, voters defeated initiative 1634 which was essentially a soda tax and initiative 1631 which was a carbon tax. I know people think Seattle and WA is some progressive place but it's not. In my 5 years living here, I keep telling people to eject that myth from their fucking heads.
posted by RedShrek at 9:34 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Looks like Kemp is going to win in Georgia. Guess they can kiss future elections goodbye there.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:34 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Hello from Maine!
Republican Shaun Moody concedes to Dem Janet Mills, making her Maine’s first female Governor. Also, Dems flipped the State Senate and retained the House. Dem Pingree held her seat in CD1 by a wide margin, and although they’ll be counting CD2 for a couple of days yet, it appears Dem Golden may unseat GOP incumbent Poloquin. Oh, and we’re sending Angus King back to the Senate.

So, I’m pretty confident we can return Maine to blue state status, Great things are going to happen here in the next 2 years....

Senator Collins best pack her bags, because I’m pretty sure she’s done in 2020.
posted by anastasiav at 9:35 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?
posted by Autumnheart at 9:35 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


While it wasn't unexpected, I do want to point out that Ocasio-Cortez won NY-14. Handily.

Somehow, this is the bright spot of the evening to me.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:35 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]


Shhh Autumnheart! Walker +750 votes now!

I already stayed up way too late for several nights during the Brewers' post-season. I can't keep doing this, Wisconsin!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:35 PM on November 6


Ok, here's Kevin Drum: Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History

Unemployment is at 3.7 percent ... GDP is growing 3 percent per year. Wages are rising nicely. Inflation is tooling along at a very modest 2 percent. Manufacturers’ shipments are healthy. Consumer spending is strong and household debt is low. Aside from the dotcom boom, consumer confidence is at a 40-year high.

And yet, Republicans are going to lose three dozen seats in the House and cede control to the Democrats. Has any party ever done so badly in the midst of such strong economic performance?

I guess there was LBJ in 1966, after passing the Civil Rights Act and losing the South forever. But that’s about it. ... it’s one of the great political blowouts of modern history.

posted by RedOrGreen at 9:36 PM on November 6 [41 favorites]


I actually have a different Hot Take on Racist White Ladies. They're bitter. They played by the rules but generally ended up in unhappy lives/marriages, and they're doubling down and looking to make someone pay. People of color are as always, an easy target for whatever rage and fear they refuse to deal with in a healthy way.

Many of the women my age I know have never left the US, have not visited many states, didn't enjoy school or learning, and have always lived comfortably, and have no idea what poverty is like. They are provincial, in other words. They resent and fear change.
posted by emjaybee at 9:36 PM on November 6 [95 favorites]


I canvassed for 1631 in Seattle and I will say: The messaging was horrible. The phrase “climate change” was verboten, and instead there was a lot of talk about “big polluters” and children getting asthma. The voters I talked to were mostly just confused about it and the flyers I handed out did nothing to help.

It was very frustrating.
posted by argybarg at 9:37 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?


Nope. "Aggrieved" candidates within 1% can request one. The 1% thing is a recent change, as I understand it, that was made after the Jill Stein recount.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:37 PM on November 6


Newsom has plenty of things to bitch about. They are bog-standard, run-of-the-mill social-progressive Democratic flaws, but it's not like he's short of them. Croneyism, big business, an amazing knack for avoiding situations where actual empathy might be required.

Newsom is a bot but that's also kind of one of his strengths. Deep down I believe he will do as he wants and gives no fucks. Overall, I'm glad he's on our side.

I'm pretty heart-broken over Gina Ortiz-Jones losing in Texas. She didn't get the press but she was a HELL of a candidate and gave the best speeches I've heard in years. Look up her talk on social programs being an investment and not a liability. She could be president. I hope she doesn't give up.
posted by fshgrl at 9:38 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


I wouldn't hold my breath on WI governor; there's a lot of outstanding vote in Brown County which is red.
posted by Justinian at 9:38 PM on November 6


I'm going to bed y'all. As a Pennsylvanian, I'm quite pleased. As an American I'm... cautiously optimistic and still real fighty? I'll take it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:39 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


No automatic recount in WI but a candidate can request one of margin is 1%.
posted by misterpatrick at 9:39 PM on November 6


Happy California results: Most D sweep in the state offices. Not listing; none of those are unexpected.

Unhappy: Poizner up for Insurance Commissioner (claims to be unaffiliated; used to be R but knows how well that works in CA), 53/47 over Lara (D), 21.8% reporting.

Marshall Tuck 52.5/47.5 over Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, bleh. Tuck wants vouchers and charter schools. Thurmond is an awesome guy who's actually worked with schools and cares about students, not weird tax money games.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:39 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History

WELL DONE AMERICA! Against the odds of corrupt officials, gerrymandering, big spending donors, massive lies+ propaganda, voting machine issues, social media fuckery, foreign interference and incumbent bias you not only stemmed the tide of fascism, in some cases you made gains! Celebrate and prepare to keep fighting knowing that today it just got a little bit easier to win even more in upcoming elections.
posted by meech at 9:40 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]


Autumnheart: "Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?"

Wisconsin recount procedures

Under state law, any candidate voted for in any election can petition election officials for a recount. [...] If a candidate requesting a recount meets either of the following criteria, he or she will not be required to pay a fee:[3]

1) the candidate lost by fewer than 10 votes if 4,000 votes or fewer were cast
2) the candidate lost by no more than 0.25 percent if more than 4,000 votes were cast
posted by Chrysostom at 9:40 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


There's not actually an award in these threads for most consistently snide commentary.

I feel like someone should have mentioned this sooner.
posted by great_radio at 9:40 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


No automatic recount in WI but a candidate can request one of margin is .25%.

Within 0.25% gets you a free recount upon request, otherwise within 1% has a fee.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:40 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Calling it now. He's the democratic nominee for president in 2024. And he loses. Because he is disgusting.

Gavin Newsom’s ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently quit her Foxbot job to be Jr’s touring partner. Her top hits include promising that the US will become the cantina scene from Star Wars if Democrats win the house. Apologies to California, but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that he’s tainted goods.
posted by SakuraK at 9:41 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


I forced myself to go dark this morning because I didn't want to deal with any of the horse-race tension and stress. Ten minutes ago I finally opened up some stuff online and found WaPo calling the House flipped. Some of the defeats for Dems are heartbreakers, but flipping one chamber was critical and that's happened. And seeing so many of the "firsts" elected tonight is so encouraging.

We were always gonna have a lot more fighting ahead, no matter how tonight played out. But I feel a lot better going to bed tonight than I did two years ago.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:41 PM on November 6 [36 favorites]


FL is truly a lost cause.

Nope. Florida ended felon disenfranchisement today, which means 40% of black men who couldn't vote this year can vote in 2020. This year's close losses can easily become victories in the next election. Florida is frustrating and weird as heck, but it's not a lost cause.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 9:41 PM on November 6 [105 favorites]


I was holding out hope for Kim Olson to pull it out as TX Ag Commissioner. I attended a forum on education hosted by several of the TX Dem candidates, and they pulled Olson out of the audience to wrap up the rally for them. She was absolutely electric, and I have never been more excited to vote for a candidate basically ever. But, you know. It was a Texas downballot state office.
posted by Daughter of Time at 9:43 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Yeah, we're very disappointed that Betsy Londrigan lost by just a few thousand votes to the vile Rodney Davis (IL-13); so close! But I'm excited that our county positions were swept by Democrats, including replacing the fatuous Republican county clerk with a Democrat running on a platform of fighting voter suppression. And our new county sheriff is a Democrat who's going to discontinue cooperating with ICE! and THAT was really a surprise. It's not the big prize we wanted but I'll take it.
posted by daisystomper at 9:44 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


I mean, Florida's results were super disappointing - I thought Gillum was great. But they were by 1% or less. That's not irretrievably red.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:44 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]


Marshall Tuck 52.5/47.5 over Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) for State Superintendent of Public Instruction

Ugh. Aside from the big propositions, this was the race I hoped was the most possible. Tuck sucks!
posted by rhizome at 9:44 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Within 0.25% gets you a free recount upon request, higher than that has a fee.

Got it. The vote is currently within that range, though. (Not speculating on whether it will stay there.)

But this is what, Walker’s third election? I mean c’mon. Well, you can always come over here to the 10,000 lakes if you get really sick of it.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:44 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Waking up to such a close Beto loss is disheartening.

But go PA. wolf/fetterman won by a nice margin.

I wish concession wasn’t a thing and they could just wait for official results. I mean, Texas is so close. So. Close.

Anyways going back to sleep for a bit. Maybe I’ll wake up to more good news.
posted by sio42 at 9:44 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]




Walker's (R) up by 2,421 with Milwaukee County fully reported but WPR and Twitter are talking about some 47,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee that are yet to be counted, so...
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:47 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


I’d postpone worrying about CA results for a bit. Very few results from LA and other big counties yet.
posted by zachlipton at 9:47 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


…but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that he’s tainted goods.

Wait, she's his EX wife, is that correct?  Is there no chance she's his ex wife for a reason?   Guilt by association just seems so…McCarthy-era.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 9:47 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]


>LEGISLATIVE FLIP: Minnesota Dems have picked up the state House.

The GOP had a 77-57 majority going in; that's a lot of pick-ups.


This is very important to me as a government employee who the Republican legislature was attempting to legislate out of a job. This combined with the Governor win tonight makes my job - and many others in state employment - much more stable. Thanks fellow Minnesotans; I can get some sleep now.
posted by Clinging to the Wreckage at 9:48 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


Gavin Newsom’s ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently quit her Foxbot job to be Jr’s touring partner. Her top hits include promising that the US will become the cantina scene from Star Wars if Democrats win the house. Apologies to California, but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that he’s tainted goods.

I'm not comfortable blaming people for their ex-spouses. A LOT of women married and then divorced horrible people and if we start down the road of blaming people for their ex's a lot of women are going to be the victims. Lets blame Newsom for Newsom, not his ex-wife OK?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:48 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


Latest on Minnesota 1st: Republican Hagedorn now leading by......21 votes. 86% of precincts reporting.
posted by gimonca at 9:49 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


How the ever loving fuck did Rick Scott get elected to the Senate? He defrauded the public of millions and was a complete shit show or a governor.

Rick Scott spent the last 18 months frantically courting the Puerto Rican vote in Florida. I'm not saying he won it -- I have no idea what the breakdown of the FL vote is -- but there's probably something to be said for the brazenness and industry of a Republican candidate who goes for it, post-Maria.

None of my Republican voter takes are complex, because Republican voters aren't complex. (Sorry media!) White women vote for Republicans out of tribalism, same as white men. A lot of that "tribalism" is just racism. And let's be fair: there's a lot of poor-to-middle-class white men who get screwed over by voting for Republican, too. Per Kansas, they won't notice until they've been through several decades of Republican rule and at least one decade of incredibly damaging, fringe-conservative control.
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:49 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


For MN AG, Ellison has widened his lead to 130,000 votes with 88% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:49 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


I know people think Seattle and WA is some progressive place but it's not.

Well, you made me curious so I looked up the county breakdown. The carbon tax is leading handily by 12 points in Seattle, King County. However, it seems the rest of the state is pretty red.
posted by JackFlash at 9:49 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Ok I need to quit for the night but just to put down a marker: With 8 MILLION votes counted in Texas so far, Beto held cockroach skinsuit Ted Cruz to within 3%. There's still 10% of the state to report - it's not going to be a victory, but that's still an astonishing result.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:51 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


WPR and Twitter are talking about some 47,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee that are yet to be counted, so...

Yes, they have also neglected to count my 2 middle fingers which you can put down for Walker. Does this mean I should go to bed and give up on a WI result for now?
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:51 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


It bears pointing out that the majority of college-educated white women went for Hillary. The majority of college-educated white men went for Trump.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:51 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]




Washington (state) has a pretty solid track record of voting against anything that would actually pay for stuff. It's one of the most frustrating things about living here. Seattle and other cities are solidly blue, rural areas red like much of the country. But a lot of the blues are only blue until somebody has to pay for something.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:52 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Gavin Newsom’s ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently quit her Foxbot job to be Jr’s touring partner. Her top hits include promising that the US will become the cantina scene from Star Wars if Democrats win the house. Apologies to California, but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that he’s tainted goods.

How is he responsible for the actions of a woman he was married to for three years, half of which was spent apart? She left him for a TV job and a richer guy in that order.

The affair he subsequently had with his campaign managers hard-drinking wife was a much bigger albatross around his neck for a long time.
posted by fshgrl at 9:54 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Well, okay, but Gillum was an *outstanding* candidate, and he lost by almost exactly the same amount.

Yeah, but between being black and the troll campaign somewhat successfully associating him with an FBI investigations (claiming he's about to be indicted), it was a long shot. Amendment 4's passage may improve The outlook in the future, thankfully.
posted by wierdo at 9:54 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


If you need a pick-me-up, check out AAPI Women Lead's instagram collage of the WOC who've been elected today
posted by TwoStride at 9:55 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Can we not talk about Newsom's political future (beyond his stint as CA governor) at this point? It seems kind of pointless.
posted by suelac at 9:56 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Does this mean I should go to bed and give up on a WI result for now?

I'm giving it 5 more minutes until midnight.

Evers (D) still has half of La Crosse county to count, Walker (R) has Green Bay left, etc, etc. Not a good look for Walker at all, but all you need is 1 or 2, so who knows at this point.

In other Wisconsin news, Doug La Follette (D) has kept his seat as Secretary of State.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:57 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


50% reporting in MT, Gianforte beating Williams 52-45, Tester ahead by only 4,000 votes. I hate it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:58 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Yeah, the WA votes are weird. Gun control but no soda taxes?

Not sure if you got any of them, but our house got a TON of mailers that were deceptive at best, referring to it as a "Grocery Tax" and saying that it would increase grocery prices, and that sort of thing. I'm sure there were plenty of people who didn't even realize exactly what it was.
posted by Katrel at 9:58 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


It bears pointing out that the majority of college-educated white women went for Hillary. The majority of college-educated white men went for Trump.

You can continuously parse out the demographics however you want, though, depending onthe result you want to achieve. For example... the majority of college educated white men in California went for Hillary. And so on.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Both Republicans Duncan Hunter and Chris Collins might be going to jail. Both Republicans were re-elected.
posted by JackFlash at 10:00 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The StarTribune is reporting that Ellison is the winner for MN AG. Yeah! We swept the board. Both Senate seats, the governor, the SOS, the auditor and the AG.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:02 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


You can continuously parse out the demographics however you want, though, depending onthe result you want to achieve. For example... the majority of college educated white men in California went for Hillary. And so on.

Yeah, but you don't need to parse it out very far to make a strong case that most white people vote for white supremacy.
posted by joedan at 10:03 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


WI race. at 94% reporting, Walker and Evers are still fewer than 2,000 votes apart. Nailbiter for sure!
posted by acidnova at 10:03 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


*I* voted for Kodos.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I don't know that anyone's bothered to call it, but if I'm figuring this right Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Margaret Chutich has mathematically eliminated her challenger (who ran against her because she is in a same sex marriage)
posted by ckape at 10:05 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


*I* voted for Kodos.

(cap voice) I understood that reference (/cap voice)
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 10:06 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Complete Senate wipe out is well in play.

I still have hopes for Tester and Rosen. Dunno what the heck is going on in Arizona but we'll see.
posted by Justinian at 10:06 PM on November 6


I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.

We don't all give up this easily.
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:06 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


@mspicuzzamjs: BREAKING: With governor's race between @Tony4WI and @ScottWalker deadlocked, Milwaukee County has more than 50,000 uncounted absentee ballots jsonline.com/story/news/pol… with @DanielBice

This could be a long while.
posted by zachlipton at 10:08 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.

I’m tired of reading shit like this. Take it to the screaming thread if you’re determined to be so pessimistic.

What we do is block any GOP attempt to do anything meaningful, and focus on building on our wins for 2020. This is the same GOP that can’t stay out of its own way even when they held all 3 branches of government, and now they just lost one.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:08 PM on November 6 [83 favorites]


Kevin Drum: Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History
I wouldn't characterize it that way; I'd say it was a Great Political Turning Point... after a steady march for the Republican Party since 2010 toward overwhelmingly dominating American Politics, culminating in getting their worst candidate elected President in 2016, this election hit the brakes in most parts of the political scene and reversed things in a few places. As I said earlier, the Resistance must keep working through 2020 and 2022 to solidly reverse the damage, but... hey, it's a start.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:10 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.

We use the House like a blue bat with nails driven through it, hobbling and maiming any GOP initiatives and concentrating on movement building for 2020.

Dems like Pelosi that prate about bipartisanship have the same bat held very close to their faces.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:11 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


This is the same GOP that can’t stay out of its own way even when they held all 3 branches of government, and now they just lost one.

This bears repeating, especially for those proclaiming tonight's win a loss—(WTF?).  They've held all three branches for the past two years and have accomplished jack shit aside from the horrible tax gift to the hyper rich.  One piece of significant legislation in two years.  Don't fall for their propaganda.  They suck at governance.  That's a fact that isn't up for debate.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:13 PM on November 6 [51 favorites]


OK. But the results right now look like 2016 on steroids, meaning the rural-urban divide got a lot worse, which translated to a Senate blowout. Because the Senate votes based on land area, and the House is still mostly based on actual people who can overcome the map if they turn out. Tell me how that gets better without a party of Manchins. The Senate is unfixable, and telling people to talk nicer about it isn't going to change that.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:13 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Can we not talk about Newsom's political future (beyond his stint as CA governor) at this point? It seems kind of pointless.

Sorry, I thought we were discussing the ridiculous double standards for conservative and liberal politicians and how nothing will ever be good enough for a large swath of the left, which is why they are losing the country.

This election is far from a mandate. It's a tepid win, at best. It's OK-ish. What is needed now is for Democrats to double down and work harder but instead we'll get a bunch of "Beto didn't win! politics is mean! I quit." bullshit. I can see it in this thread already and it's why the left will lose in the end. Unless they are willing to put in the work and keep the faith over the long term, which they clearly aren't. Instead everyone is jockeying for their pesronal hobbyhorse to the the one ridden to the finish and if it's not going to be they are going home.
posted by fshgrl at 10:13 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


So if Steve King has to get back in, is there any way to get him to push his anti-immigrant shit far enough that the hypocritical dairy farmers who vote him in are either destroyed or woken up? Maybe start by sending ICE to the Nunes family farm.
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


you can call in anonymous tips.
posted by fshgrl at 10:15 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


While the vote for felons is heartening, Florida turned out disastrously. Can't believe even Nelson lost. I hope Tester in Montana pulls through. Won't get my hopes up for AZ/NV.

Don't forget that no matter how cartoonishly awful, despicable, stupid etc. Trump appears to be, 2020 is an uphill battle, and the Democrats need to be as tough and as united as the GOP, with a candidate who appeals to electoral votes -- not to maximum idealism. And yet without being "establishment"
posted by knoyers at 10:16 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


The Senate is disappointing but not surprising (though backsliding is pretty disappointing), but we wanted the House and we wanted Governors, and we got both of those.

What's more disappointing is Democratic leadership still trying to govern based on process instead of justice.
posted by Merus at 10:18 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


What we need is a different kind of "bipartisanship", between the factions within the Democratic Party, the "Corporate Dems" and the Democratic Socialists. It's not going to be easy, but it is doable.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:18 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Calling them something less immediately derogatory than “Corporate Dems” would be a start.
posted by argybarg at 10:20 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]


I want the Democratic Party to move as far left as possible and still win majorities. What that might mean with regard to tonight's results I won't really know until I see a breakdown of how many and who showed up at the polls this election.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:21 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


...that's not really a slur when they mostly depend on corporate money and rule in their interests
posted by The Whelk at 10:22 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


The Senate is unfixable, and telling people to talk nicer about it isn't going to change that.

It's a pretty common design in democracies to put in some kind of corrective for rural voters, who generally make the food that the country depends on but get easily disenfranchised by the population in the cities.

It's become fashionable for leftists to say that the Senate is rigged against them, but that's by design - you write off the country areas entirely, you start losing elections.

The harder question is how to win back the country areas without compromising on the justice that the left, broadly, wants.
posted by Merus at 10:22 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I don't understand this dire reaction. The GOP's legislative free-for-all is over. The Dems can wield investigatory and oversight powers. The governor pickups were extremely important to prevent more gerrymandering between now and 2020.

It's too bad about the Senate, but that was always a longshot. The close margins in Texas are frustrating, but also promising.

Get through the holidays, blink a few times and we'll be into the run-up to 2020.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:22 PM on November 6 [91 favorites]


Lets blame Newsom for Newsom, not his ex-wife OK?

Haha, he got together with Guilfoyle when she was married to...his campaign manager! They're all tweaked.
posted by rhizome at 10:25 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Can I just say that even with the bits that are disappointing, the feeling of relief that I feel given the terrifying 538 projections that briefly appeared this evening is just amazing.

Reality still sucks.  Herr Twitler is still gonna tweet inanities and drive me into a frothing rage.  The world's still on fire, but even so…just PHEW!  That fear of a total misread of the polls was just heart-stopping and soul-destroying both.  There was no hope before today.  Now there is some.  I'll take that and count it a victory.

Tomorrow, back to work, but tonight, YAY!
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:28 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


I don't understand this dire reaction. The GOP's legislative free-for-all is over. The Dems can wield investigatory and oversight powers. The governor pickups were extremely important to prevent more gerrymandering between now and 2020.

And the Affordable Care Act is effectively safe for another two years. Lives were saved tonight.
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:29 PM on November 6 [86 favorites]


WI is going to need to count absentee and whatever other late-count ballots they have; it's too close to call tonight.

And the House can start doing the investigations that have been stalled before now, and if they can put together legislation that actually would work, the Senate will have a hard time justifying denying it.

Increase the inheritance tax, and use the R rhetoric against them - "we're just trying to make sure everyone has the chance to sink or swim on their own merits! No handouts!" Pass the ERA - "no special treatment for men or women! Everyone equal under the law!" Pass health care rights - "no patient shall be required to accept any treatment that serves no medical purpose, and no medical professional is permitted to knowingly lie to any patient about their health." Tie the minimum wage to the inflation index, increase the $$ for exempt employees, and tie that to the inflation index as well, so it automatically increases as prices go up. Give tax breaks to businesses whose highest pay level is no more than 30x the level of the lowest-paid employee; pitch it as "helping small businesses."

Jump on the "no fake news!" bandwagon, and make laws that any publicly-held news media organization that deliberately misleads its viewership (1) loses its license(s), (2) board members can be charged with felonies, and (3) viewers who were deceived can file a claim for damages of some nominal amount--say, up to $500 per offense (per viewer). Push the message, early and solid, that all a company has to do to avoid these problems, is not deliberately lie.

There's a lot the House can do that makes the Senate look like greedy racist misogynist assholes (which, of course, they are, but they really like plausible deniability). Even if they can't get the laws past the Senate, they can get the full text worked out, and show it to the public, and say, "this is the law YOU COULD HAVE if you got rid of That Asshole."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:30 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


OK. But the results right now look like 2016 on steroids, meaning the rural-urban divide got a lot worse, which translated to a Senate blowout.

It wasn’t a Senate blowout. They’re forecast to pick up two seats. That gives them a slightly stronger majority than they had previously, but only barely. They already had a majority so our position there hasn’t changed. It wasn’t “2016 on steroids” by any stretch of the imagination.

I mean seriously, what would qualify as a win to you, if winning back the House and flipping what, 5 governors to D wasn’t it? You act like the secret police are gonna come break down the door tomorrow because we didn’t flip the Senate.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:30 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]



It's become fashionable for leftists to say that the Senate is rigged against them, but that's by design - you write off the country areas entirely, you start losing elections.


Well it is rigged, and the Senate is an undemocratic institution, but you can't write off any areas because of the huge gains we've seen running on progressive and socialist issues in traditionally "red" areas and then having big turnouts for them. We seek the liberation of all people, there should be no place we consider unwinnable- except maybe the ghetto of west hampton.
posted by The Whelk at 10:32 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


It's a pretty common design in democracies to put in some kind of corrective for rural voters, who generally make the food that the country depends on but get easily disenfranchised by the population in the cities.

42% of crop production in the U.S. comes from just 3% of U.S. farms according to the USDA. These are not mom-and-pop operations, these are corporations bringing in millions of dollars a year.

And as many of 50% of the people actually "making the food the country depends on" are undocumented farmworkers who work dangerous, underpaid jobs and who Republicans fight to keep disenfranchised, unsafe and living in fear.
posted by rogerrogerwhatsyourrvectorvicto at 10:33 PM on November 6 [60 favorites]


Winning the House means we can stop a lot of shit, and investigate a lot of other shit.

Could have been better, but I'll take it over the worst case scenario.
posted by Windopaene at 10:33 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


WI race. 98% reporting and Evers just pulled back into the lead. A mere 122 votes separating them.
posted by acidnova at 10:34 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


I'm watchiing Jon Ralston and co do their live broadcasting out of Nevada right now. (right here if you want to join). I missed a bit but... he just said that the Washoe early vote results are "devastating" for Republicans. So that's a good sign.

Sending Rosen my energy.
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


The GOP's legislative free-for-all is over.

Amen! And we just picked up Texas 07! Which was once represented by horrible person George H. W. Bush! Republican since 1967. WTF!

Yeah, the Senate is fucked. I don't know what the solution to that is. But I believe there is one out there. Maybe it's civil war. God, I hope not. Maybe it's turning the Senate into the House of Lords. Maybe it's adding many more states. All of these solutions are ugly and hard. There are probably others too. But there are solutions and if we are lucky we will find them.
posted by great_radio at 10:36 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Maxine Waters just became Chair of the House Financial Services Committee.
Elijah Cummings just became Chair of the House Government Oversight Committee.
Adam Schiff just became Chair of the House Intelligence Comittee.

I call that a win.
posted by joedan at 10:37 PM on November 6 [149 favorites]


I'd be interested in seeing a vote breakdown by age cohort and some demographic/linguistic population growth projections in Texas and the other "urban/rural divide" states before we assume the only answer is an "army of Manchins." That may be a very shortsighted view.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:38 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


So much this...

Investigation time.
posted by Windopaene at 10:38 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


More news from MI:
Mike Bishop is out and I can't stop smiling!

posted by MaritaCov at 10:38 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Tester's ahead by 330 votes, 53% reporting.

This dumb goddamned country.

edit: now rosendale's ahead, of course
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:40 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Missoula is still out, guys. Don't write off Tester.
posted by Justinian at 10:41 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Hey gang! I know we did not run the table tonight but we're not done. I'm having one more drink and going to bed. Had a cute older couple from Dallas in the pub tonight. They wanted to watch the politics so I put one of the TVs on CNN and we had a nice chat. They were clearly on the right, I'm pretty lefty, everything went swell.

The dust on tonight won't settle for a while. And now that these midterms are over, a certain investigation might reveal whom else they have flipped. Or new charges might be brought. We have more than a puncher's chance now.

Here in mass I'm tempted to call in to the Howie Carr show tomorrow just to say LIZ WARREN KICKED ASS YOU HACK.
posted by vrakatar at 10:43 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Fixing the Senate: Add Puerto Rico, Guam, and DC as states. I'd love to say, "and split California into 2-3 states," but there's considerably less process for that; it's not going to happen. Push those new D states at the National Popular Vote initiative, and at automatic statewide voting registration and early voting options. Start pushing them towards election day being a state holiday, which helps younger, progressive voters.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:44 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Yeah, the Senate is fucked.

I'm not inherently opposed to the concept of the Senate.  I was taught that in many ways the Constitution is there to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority, and the Senate's always seemed to fit that idea pretty well.  I don't know the solution to our current problems, but it feels like the Senate procedures that have developed over the years have exacerbated that protection to a level that now feels like the minority is holding the rest of us hostage to their demands.

I feel like a Senate run on a more explicitly democratic basis would help restore the balance since at the least it'd help reduce the gridlock, but I'm not an expert at the politics involved.  There may be other reasons that might fail.  But as it stands now, man, it's just a nonstop wrench in the works of government.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:44 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Abrams seems pretty confident it's going to a runoff despite Kemp being currently above 50%.
posted by chris24 at 10:44 PM on November 6


Duncan Hunter got re-elected. Good God Above. WTF.
posted by fshgrl at 10:45 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Redistricting reform was on the ballot in Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri and has been approved in all three.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:45 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]


I was taught that in many ways the Constitution is there to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority, and the Senate's always seemed to fit that idea pretty well

Seems like the Founders maybe should have spent less time on protecting the minority from a tyranny of the majority and more time on protecting the majority from a tyranny of the minority. 🤷
posted by Justinian at 10:46 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


And Don Young is leading in Alaska. The man who told Nixon he should "burn the tapes" .

Also he's been noticeably senile for a decade. Grar.
posted by fshgrl at 10:46 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


The Senate is fucked for a number of reasons. Not the least of which is the current GOP leadership which has abused Sneate norms to get what they want, regardless of the norms.

Fuck Mitch McConnell
posted by Windopaene at 10:47 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Seems like the Founders maybe should have spent less time on protecting the minority from a tyranny of the majority and more time on protecting the majority from a tyranny of the minority.

Maybe they should have been less focused on owning the minority.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:47 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


The founders were okay with slavery, too. They did some good stuff, and some not good stuff. Probably best to focus more on what we need now.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:47 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


One thing we can do with our control of the house is...you know...legislate.

Start feeding Trump and the Senate so many goddamn bills that they feel like an ATM. Make those assholes work for a living. And investigate the shit out of them and find out what ties they have to the NRA and Russia and all that mess.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:49 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


Anything to get America closer to a direct democracy is revolutionary and the Founders can eat my ass.
posted by The Whelk at 10:49 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]


Nate Silver speculates that the Bob "bribe me" Menendez at the top of the ticket is hurting NJ House candidates and compares the overperformance of Democrats in New York where Gillibrand is on the ballot instead of Bob "no, really, give me the money" Menendez

That's definitely what the local Republicans thought. There were "Fire Menendez" yard signs everywhere, fucking thickets of them. Every negative ad had his name.

However, the Dem ads also used Menendez' name, so ... they probably thought otherwise. It's quite plausible that his corruption just was not as important as other factors, in the year 2018, it was pretty small potatoes. And if I'm reading right the results overall are bluer than previous years. So I'm skeptical that it mattered much.

Shout-out to my district NJ-07! It's been red for literally decades. I'm pretty sure this is an example of the wealthy suburbs swinging blue, if anyone's interested.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:50 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


The Founders would be like, “It’s been 240 years since we wrote the Constitution, and we wrote it specifically so that it could be amended. Stop blaming us for your bullshit and fix it yourselves! We’re dead! This is your job now!”
posted by Autumnheart at 10:52 PM on November 6 [97 favorites]


We use the House like a blue bat with nails driven through it, hobbling and maiming any GOP initiatives and concentrating on movement building for 2020.

More specifically: investigate the shit out of Trump, for 21 months. Start impeachment proceedings immediately after Labor Day in 2020, and draw them out so that the final vote to impeach Trump comes about a week before election day.

You'll never convict in the Senate anyway, so don't even give them a chance. Just head into election day with "Trump Impeached!" headlines everywhere, and Republicans trying to spin that it's not really that bad.
posted by msalt at 10:52 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


The Founders would be like, “It’s been 240 years since we wrote the Constitution, and we wrote it specifically so that it could be amended. Stop blaming us for your bullshit and fix it yourselves! We’re dead! This is your job now!”

The same people they gave inordinate power to are the ones who have to agree to modify it to reduce their own power! That's insane!

I feel like this debate could make for a great American Chopper Argues meme.
posted by Justinian at 10:53 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Anything to get America closer to a direct democracy is revolutionary and the Founders can eat my ass.

The USA is an inherently reactionary state built upon a mountain of innocent human bones, electoralism alone will never produce real progress, and the Founders can eat. my. ass.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:54 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


... with 98% in, Evers (D) just took something like a 50 vote lead (!) over the evil Walker (R) in WI GOV.

That's pure bedlam. Imagine the recount.
posted by Justinian at 10:55 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


The same people they gave inordinate power to are the ones who have to agree to modify it to reduce their own power! That's insane!

And yet it’s been done over two dozen times! The last one was ratified in 1992. It’s not like we used up all our chances and can’t do it anymore.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:58 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Evers has over 600 votes lead!
posted by acidnova at 10:58 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


The Milwaukee absentees came in big for Evers (D)!! I think he's gonna take it!
posted by Justinian at 10:59 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]




POOSH CART
posted by vrakatar at 10:59 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


And Jon Ralston on the stream is a hair from declaring Heller (R) toast! Things are ending on a high note tonight at least between NV and WI.
posted by Justinian at 11:00 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Looks like Tester is sinking though :(
posted by knoyers at 11:02 PM on November 6


AP calls SC-01 for D Cunningham.
posted by chris24 at 11:02 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


PA legislature: Pending recounts (there were a couple of very close races), looks like Dems picked up 5 Senate seats, and 9 House seats. Neither of which flips the chamber, although we break the GOP supermajority in the Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:03 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


Abrams is refusing to concede in Georgia and is currently spitting hot fire, as she should. It's hard to see her winning, but the conflict of interest of Kemp as Secretary of State and candidate for governor has been a huge gaping wound to the democratic process in Georgia.

Abrams is calling for "all votes to be counted" which could mean waiting for absentee votes, or it could mean waiting for provisional ballots. It could also mean a legal battle to make sure all votes were actually counted. Maybe she even has some legal route to challenge Kemp's administration of the election generally. I don't know.

What I do know that Kemp's reign as SoS has been marked by a concerted effort to shrink the voter rolls and serious security issues which he has absolutely refused to address. By any objective measure his tenure has been a failure. Even just as a small example, my precinct didn't have enough login cards. (The electronic voting machines that Georgia uses requires a card which poll workers key to your voter ID, and which then erases and can be reused after you cast your ballot.) This meant long lines of people who had to wait for someone to finish voting and turn their card in before they were able to vote.

That's just one small example of what a complete waste of space Kemp has been as SoS. Again, he abused his office in myriad other ways, including lobbing completely unfounded accusations of hacking against the Abrams campaign. I had the pleasure of voting for Abrams as my state representative for years, so I know she's a smart and resourceful legislator. I hope she uses every legal challenge available against Kemp.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:03 PM on November 6 [63 favorites]




I'm telling you guys, wait for Missoula to come in before making a judgment on Tester (D). I can't tell you he will win but I can tell you that we don't currently know he is losing.
posted by Justinian at 11:04 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


One of the things that troubles me tonight is that FL and GA (and maybe even TX) were legally rigged, and there is a time to rise up against a legally rigged election and a time to suck it up and try to ensure that the next one won't be rigged, but I honestly don't know what the right option is. Because there is no real precedent for a popular arising to demand that a state holds free elections -- as opposed to an arising to negate free elections in the South, which actually happened -- but I don't know if waiting for the next time is enough, because chances are the next time will be the same.
posted by holgate at 11:05 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


BREAKING: Of the outstanding @cityofmilwaukee votes, 38,674 went to @Tony4WI while 7,181 went to @ScottWalker. That should mean a win for Evers.

So does that mean that even though Milwaukee County reported 100% in quite some time ago, these votes were not included? When will they be included in the official results? I am freaking out, man. Can I go to bed pretty confident that Evers won, or is it still really uncertain? Thanks for talking me down.
posted by tllaya at 11:05 PM on November 6


Came to say what everyone else said, Evers looks to be ahead by 22,000 votes. I think. I’m really tired, fuck yeah Milwaukee.

Goodbye Walker and good riddance. You fucking fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:06 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]


They suck at governance. That's a fact that isn't up for debate.

"The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it."

P. J. O'Rourke
posted by kirkaracha at 11:06 PM on November 6 [31 favorites]


That's pure bedlam. Imagine the recount.

Blehhh. Flashbacks to Franken vs. Coleman and Dayton vs. Emmer. Nothing like waiting 7 fucking months to find out who your senator is.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:07 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I'm telling you guys, wait for Missoula to come in before making a judgment on Tester (D). I can't tell you he will win but I can tell you that we don't currently know he is losing.

It's true that the vast majority of the remaining 40ish% precincts are in the missoula and bozeman environs and the NYT tracker still firmly thinks Tester will pull through, however I just can't be optimistic until I see my big flat-topped boy's name ahead again.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:08 PM on November 6


Re: Heller (R) vs Rosen (D) in NV.

"I think those races are over." -Jon Ralston

that's the first blue flip in the Senate of the cycle. Let's hold out hope for one more in AZ.
posted by Justinian at 11:09 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Dems like Pelosi that prate about bipartisanship have the same bat held very close to their faces.

I would normally take exception to this sentiment, but we're living in interesting times, more specifically a time in which the status quo ante of bipartisanship (which never really existed quite the way she describes) that Nancy Pelosi seems to want so much is simply not possible given the attitude of the clowns that make up the Republican Party today. They refuse to govern, and since we apparently can't charge and convict them of their mal-/mis-/nonfeasance of office despite their frequent admissions of guilt, the only option is to sideline them the way the minority party is in parliamentary systems.
posted by wierdo at 11:10 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Is 22K out of recount territory?
posted by corb at 11:11 PM on November 6


And the democrat is losing the governor's race in CT? I don't know much about that race, but you would think it was the democrat's to lose
posted by knoyers at 11:11 PM on November 6


More specifically: Clark and Washoe counties are in (Las Vegas and Reno), and Rosen leads by 63,000 votes out of 720,000. The remaining counties are red but have tiny populations. Latest totals are here.
posted by msalt at 11:12 PM on November 6


Right now Evers is up 1.3% per NBC, outside recount territory.
posted by chris24 at 11:13 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


The current Connecticut Democratic governor is really unpopular.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:13 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


@RalstonReports: Rosen and Sisolak are going to win.

If Ralston is calling it, I trust him. Hot damn.

I spent a bunch of time texting NV, feeling like it wasn't a great use of time. I'm very pleased to be wrong about that. The Reid machine had another one in it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:13 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]


Is 22K out of recount territory?

AP currently has Evers (D) up by 1.14% which would be outside the recount threshold.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:16 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


As a Reno resident, following national politics for the last few hours, Nevada results are making me feel real good right now.
posted by memento maury at 11:18 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Nailbiter watch: Russia's favorite Congressman Dana Rohrbacher is currently down by 600 votes with 63% reporting.
posted by joedan at 11:18 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]


“Tony Evers leads by 1.2 percentage points, or 30,859 votes, over Scott Walker with 99 percent of precincts reporting.”

I can’t math and don’t ow where 22k came from so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I saw less than 1% as the recount zone. Don’t know how correct that is.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:20 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Some CA ballot prop updates. There's still a lot of the vote left to count, but these seem like decently safe calls at this point:

Prop 5 (institute feudalism let people transfer their near-zero property taxes around however they want) is going down, currently 42-57
Prop 6 (repeal the gas tax and completely screw up the state's transportation funding) is trailng 45-55, though I'd want to drill down a bit more to be entirely confident that will hold
Prop 7 (repeal daylight saving time, except not really because it needs the state legislature and then the feds and it's complicated) seems to be quite popular, up 61-38.
Prop 10 (rent control) going down, currently 36-64 (NBC and CNN have called this as a no)

The affordable housing bond (prop 1) is still fairly close.

But hey, it seems like we just voted to literally change time itself. As Gov. Brown said in his signing statement, and if you're not a morning person anyway, "fiat lux!"
posted by zachlipton at 11:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Searched "north carolina" above and didn't see a mention of the big news here:

1) we elected Anita Earls to the NC supreme court, giving Dems a 5-2 advantage there, and

2) we broke the GOP supermajorities in *both* state houses, getting rid of some odious politicians in the process, which means the governor's veto is back in play as a political tool.

North Carolina still has a long way to get back to where it was before the GOP wrecked things, but it's a much better state today than it was yesterday. Both of the above will be big blocks against further right-wing lunacy getting entrenched here.

[Edit: missed the previous Anita Earls mention, sorry]
posted by mediareport at 11:22 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]


Dem gain in AZ-02 (McSally's old seat), as Ann Kirkpatrick wins.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:23 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


ME-02 with 68% reporting is a dead heat with D-Golden about 100 votes ahead of spineless incumbent R-Poliquin
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:24 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


CNN has officially called Nevada for Rosen (D)!
posted by Justinian at 11:24 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]


...that's not really a slur when they mostly depend on corporate money and rule in their interests

It's no wonder so many people sit on their hands due to that faction if that ridiculously cartoonish description of their position is widely shared on the left. Describing part of your own party that way is..I don't even have a good word.

Disagreement about the means to our shared ends does not make the people who disagree with you Republicans.
posted by wierdo at 11:25 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


NY Times calling it for Evers!
posted by acidnova at 11:27 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]


just listened to 30-year incumbent Rohrbacher compare himself as David to the CA Democratic Party's Goliath, because they out-fundraised him.
he was practically whining.
at the moment, he's down a few hundred votes. please, please don't let the door hit ya, you shit weasel.
posted by ApathyGirl at 11:30 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]


Yeah, Rosen is still up by 55,000 votes in Nevada, and the only uncounted votes left are Carson City (county and city? likely Dem anyway) and 3 counties: Lyon, Mineral, and Elko. I don't think there are 55,000 total residents combined in Lyon, Mineral and Elko counties.

OK, I looked it up. Mineral county has 4,000 residents. Lyon and Elko have about 50,000 voters each. But the odds that Heller gets 55K net votes out of the 104,000 total residents in those counties are very, very slim.
posted by msalt at 11:30 PM on November 6


Wisconsin is a big win. It turns the governor picture from "mediocre given expectations, spun as bad for Democrats" to "okay, maybe spun as okay".
posted by Justinian at 11:30 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


Oh, and in San Francisco, it looks like Prop C is going to pass, something around ~60% of the vote right now. This is a measure that taxes the largest businesses in the city to raise $250M/year for desperately needed services to address the homeless crisis. It became a huge fight in the home stretch when Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff backed the measure, pouring substantial resources into the campaign and picking fights with Twitter/Square CEO Jack Dorsey, who was vehemently opposed.

Advocates were hoping for a 2/3rds majority, which would help protect against a legal challenge that would tie up the money for an extended period of time (it's complicated, but there's a dispute at the moment as to how many votes you need to pass these kinds of tax measures in CA). That doesn't look super likely, but Benioff says he's on board with a legal team if necessary.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]


Yeah, Iowa was disappointing, but Wisconsin is a big one.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 PM on November 6


Alabama and West Virginia both passed anti-abortion constitutional amendments. In Alabama the amendment will make it state policy to "recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life" and state that no provisions of the constitution provide a right to an abortion or require funding of abortions. West Virginia's amendment echos the latter part stating "nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion."

The upside is that Oregon rejected Measure 106 which would have banned state funding of abortions.
posted by peeedro at 11:38 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Iowa wasn’t a total loss, though. They went from having one D and three R representatives, to the reverse. Hopefully that means King’s influence can be blunted and weakened. (Possibly assisted by his increasing downward spiral into crazy town.)
posted by Autumnheart at 11:39 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


@Taniel: A new Democratic trifecta: Dems gain control of the Nevada government by flipping the governorship, per @RalstonReports. Dems' 6th new trifecta today (CO, IL, ME, NM, NY) on top of NJ & WA last year.

Overall, that's 6 state legislative chambers flipped D so far (none flipped R).
posted by zachlipton at 11:39 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


Man, the California Tossup races are all about 50/50. This may take days.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:41 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


may

I got some bad news for you.
posted by Justinian at 11:42 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


MJ Hegar, she of the fantastic "Doors" ad, looks to have lost to John Carter (R) in Texas-31, 50.7 to 47.6 with 99% reporting.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:42 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


No, I checked, and there are still pretzels in the kitchen.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:43 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]


State Legislatures:
Jessica Post
@JessicaPost

Here is our 2 am roundup:

7 Chambers Flipped blue:
CO Senate
MN House
NH House
NH Senate
ME Senate
NY Senate
WA Senate (Nov 2017)

New supermajorities:
OR Senate
OR House

Broken supermajorities:
NC Senate
NC House
MI Senate
PA Senate
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:44 PM on November 6 [31 favorites]


So TX-23 has gotten weird. AP and everybody else called it ages and ages ago for Hurd (R) to keep his seat. Like, he gave a victory speech and has presumably gone to bed.

Except with 100% of the precincts reporting, Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is up by 282 votes.

It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country. NYT is going to uncall it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:46 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]


Fuck yeah!
posted by fshgrl at 11:48 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


zachlipton: "@Redistrict#GA07: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) defeats Rep. Rob Woodall (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 51%-45% for Trump in 2016 and @CookPolitical considers this an upset for Democrats."

So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Except with 100% of the precincts reporting, Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is up by 282 votes.

It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country.


Apparently there is one precinct left to report in Medina County, which is heavily Republican. Ortiz Jones could still pull it out, though.
posted by mightygodking at 11:50 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?

They had a tabulation error and Woodall went up by a bit and NBC's call was pulled.
posted by chris24 at 11:51 PM on November 6


I read she ceded. Can she un-cede?
posted by fshgrl at 11:51 PM on November 6


So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?

Georgia Secretary of State (sigh) now has Woodall up by 3,600. I think Wasserman called this race too early (a tabulation error, again, WTF Georgia, would explain that). Seems like Woodall keeps the seat unless there's a pile of votes sitting around somewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 11:53 PM on November 6


Conceding is not a legal act.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:54 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Excellent!
posted by fshgrl at 11:55 PM on November 6


GA-06 seems like it could be recount-worthy, though? Handel up 57 votes out of about 300k.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:55 PM on November 6


I just read on DailyKos that Evers won WI. As a former resident and UW Madison alum, I can't be more thrilled. Too bad about Iron Stash, but you can't have everything.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 11:56 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Where would you put it?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:57 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


That’s what I remember too. IIRC the election board issues a certificate of election and that’s what officially formalizes the results. Conceding is basically good sportsmanship. It’s not a binding agreement.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:57 PM on November 6


I read that Trump called Pelosi to congratulate her. That seems like an awfully un-Trump thing to do.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:59 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


And an update near and dear to my heart.

@baseballot: The ballot measures to expand Medicaid have passed in Idaho and Nebraska. Utah's currently leads as well, but Montana's measure to extend its current Medicaid expansion looks like it's going down to defeat.
posted by zachlipton at 12:01 AM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Mason County, WA. Sigh. Our state leg. district 35 "democrat" Sheldon (caucused with Republicans to deny dems control when he was the swing vote in the past and is majority funded by R;s) beat our real dem candidate (who turned down multiple dem volunteers, why?) . Ballot measures: people oppose taxes but are ok with police accountability and gun background checks etc. This is the red-purple part of the blue part of the blue state. 150-500 voters changing their mind or 1000 new voters would be a revolution here.

My take-away: wins are wins, and we won a bunch of things that are useful. Voting is great, but we also need non-violent action. Every camp and detension center should know they are abominations, every NAACP and ACLU lawyer should have the funds to pursue justice for the unfree and unfair aspects of our election system. every call for mutual support should be met by crowds, by funds, by moral support among our peers who are otherwise tuned out.
Educate, Organize, Fight Back


and, uh, lets vote out McConells before Manchins... and lets vote them both out soon.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 12:04 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]




Gavin Newsom’s ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently

Gavin and Guilfoyle... are we talking HBO's TV show Silicon Valley? Is this real life?
posted by pwnguin at 12:06 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Under the radar victories:

- Dem sweep in New Mexico

- breaking supermajorities in both North Carolina houses, coupled with Democratic governor, is huge for redistricting. Also, voters soundly rejected a measure to take away the governor's ability to appoint election board members and give it to the (Republican) legislature.

- Oregon's Democratic governor won big, against predictions, all conservative ballot measures failed and Democrats won supermajorities in both houses.

- In Colorado, Democrats win governor, flipped a congressional seat and the state Attorney General and (all important) Secretary of State positions heading into 2020, and passed independent redistricting for both congressional and state legislative races.
posted by msalt at 12:08 AM on November 7 [23 favorites]


More Beto spillover in the Hurd - Ortiz Jones race that seems to have switched.

Dave Weigel
In 2014, when Will Hurd first wins #TX23, just 6,693 votes are cast in the El Paso part of the district.

Today? 17,421 votes.

If he ends up losing it's because of O'Rourke voters storming the polls.
posted by chris24 at 12:08 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Texas House started out 93-56. 12 seats (so far) is not a small gain.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:09 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Oh god, the margin in Nelson/Scott's Senate race in Florida just closed within the automatic recount range. Oh god why.
posted by Justinian at 12:09 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]


@MadisonWIClerk: With 145,510 voters, the City of Madison had 92.9% turnout today (as a percentage of pre-registered voters).

Wow. That, apparently, is how to get rid of Scott Walker. I'm curious how organizers in Madison pulled that off and what can be replicated elsewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 12:10 AM on November 7 [76 favorites]


Some good initiative wins in Michigan. On top of legal marijuana, they passed a ballot measure that permits same-day voter registration and no-excuse absentee voting, along with other voting rights measures. And a new constituional amendment will hand redistricting to a citizens commission instead of the current partisan legislature+governor system.

Same-day registration also passed in Maryland.
posted by zachlipton at 12:15 AM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Trump called Pelosi to congratulate her. That seems like an awfully un-Trump thing to do.

Probably wants to promote Pelosi as the public face of the Democratic party, on the theory that it will make Democrats less popular.
posted by alexei at 12:15 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Guys, I fell asleep on the couch, but my four year old woke me up at just the right time to celebrate. I'm completely overjoyed.

I knocked a lot of doors in Madison and I am so unreasonably proud of my city.
posted by gerstle at 12:17 AM on November 7 [48 favorites]


GOTV is the only way to win. Don't prepare to get voters to the polls in 2020, work your ass off to get them to the polls in 2019, as there are seriously important elections happening in your town just next year. Vote in them, and get as many people as you can to vote in them, too. Get in the habit of getting voters to get their vote to matter in. Every. Last. Election.

..
posted by Slap*Happy at 12:22 AM on November 7 [21 favorites]


Of note, GA-06 has come down to Karen Handel up by less than 100 votes with 100% reporting. This was Newt Gingrich's old seat and the seat John Ossoff made so much news by contesting. This is another race in GA which is going to come down to legal battles.

Neighboring GA-07 seems to have settled out with a GOP win, but the closeness of the race should give Republicans pause. Gwinnett county, which makes up the bulk of the district, has been reliably Republican for several cycles, but is also an area which has seen a large influx of Asian and Latinx people. Its blue-ing is part of a pattern of metro Atlanta counties trending more liberal.

Republican strategists should be looking at the this trend with trepidation at the very least. Cobb county, which has traditionally been the "Anti-Atlanta" conservative stronghold, went for Abrams this cycle and Clinton in 2016. This is a country which is on record making racist excuses to refuse mass transit and literally invented a fake city to stop Atlanta from soiling their lily white fantasy land. The fact that Gwinnett and Cobb are have gone Democratic in the past couple election cycles are a harbinger of what's to come.

It's not just that these areas have seen increasing Asian and Latinx populations, but these wealthy northern metro counties have also seen a diaspora of Black people from the Atlanta itself. A lot of the kids and grandkids of the generation that desegregated Atlanta ended up moving out to the suburbs, even as the kids of the White Flight generation moved back into the city. This has meant there has been a big influx of White liberals into the Atlanta even as there has been a steady stream of African-Americans moving out to the suburbs. This has led to some pearl clutching about the whitening of Atlanta, but at the same time has meant the blackening of the suburbs. This, combined with Asian and Latino voters, has meant the Republican strongholds which sent Newt Gingrich and Bob Barr to the Senate are now up for contention.

So keep your eye on Georgia (and North Carolina!). Some of the same demographic and economic changes which pushed Virginia into the Dem column are also happening further South. I feel like I go into political threads and see the South ignored time and time again. It's area written off as a bunch of backwards hicks. When you do that though, you discount a huge amount of African-Americans who have fought tooth and nail to vote, along with a a substantial amount of white liberals, Asian-Americans, and Latinos. There's so much attention paid to the Midwest and the Rust Belt slide towards reactionary politics, but Georgia has almost as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, as many as Michigan, and more than Indiana.

Republicans managed to establish themselves in the South on campaigns of racism and voodoo economics. It about time for the Democrats to win it back.
posted by Panjandrum at 12:22 AM on November 7 [52 favorites]


You guys, Arizona needs to count fucking faster. There are still like 400 Maricopa county precincts and like 150 Pima county precincts still out, and McSally is up by around 25,000 (I think; it’s late and math is hard). What is taking so long???? They’re optical scan ballots! And you had most of them last week!!!!
posted by Weeping_angel at 12:25 AM on November 7


Here's what I heard the other day:
NEW: @VaughnHillyard says we may not know the #AZSen results for days after Election Day because Maricopa County Recorders Office will not begin releasing results of early ballots turned in on Election Day until the end of the day on Thursday #MTPDaily
posted by Chrysostom at 12:28 AM on November 7




Incidentally, Lamont [D] has pulled within 0.4% in CT gov with 88% in, so I guess it will come down to where is outstanding.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:32 AM on November 7


I'm so frustrated and disappointed at my fellow Californians, looking at the proposition results.
posted by ApathyGirl at 12:37 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


A lot of people will legitimately see Prop 10s failure as a disappointment but besides that I think we did ok? I'll grant that was one of the big ones, though.
posted by Justinian at 12:41 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


@PatrickSvitek: With all precincts in again, SOS website shows @WillHurd defeating @GinaOrtizJones by 689 votes. SOS confirms there was an error in Medina County results earlier and the latest numbers are the correct ones. #TX23

So, does anyone know if Texas has a recount mechanism?
posted by zachlipton at 12:41 AM on November 7


Dammit! Listening to Galvin's concession speech right now : { That's AK rep seat. Galvin is running against Don Young who has been in congress almost as long as I have been alive.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 12:42 AM on November 7


I knocked a lot of doors in Madison and I am so unreasonably [understandably] proud of my city.

FTFY.  Well done.  That's astounding and you should be proud.  Gives the rest of us something for which to aim.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:45 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]


It looks like you can request a Texas recount if you're within 10% (!), but it's only automatic if there is a dead tie.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


@gettinviggy: BREAKING: Lamont inches ahead of Stefanowski by 2,696 votes -- accounting for Norwalk, Bridgeport and Stratford. Swaths of Hartford and New Haven still unreported. A lane appears to be opening up for Lamont to become Connecticut's 89th governor #ctpolitics #ctgov

This is proving to be an interesting late nailbiter.
posted by zachlipton at 12:47 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


"Dem sweep in New Mexico"

For NM-2, I'm seeing Herrell (R) up by 1% with 95% of precincts reporting. Do you have other info? It is significant that this is close, as this is a conservative district (in which I grew up, BTW, and, um, that county went 75% for Herrell because of course it did).
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:53 AM on November 7


@aseitzwald: Democrats have *flipped* 7 state legislative chambers and 333 seats, adding 6 more trifectas (gov+both chambers), per DLCC.

The flipped chambers are: Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, Minnesota House, New Hampshire Senate & House, and the New York Senate.

Really the sleeper story of the night. It will be important for us to pressure newly Dem legislatures in these states to enact voting rights bills to build on these gains. And there's an opportunity in some states to enact the kinds of environmental policies that the feds are quickly trying to undo.
posted by zachlipton at 12:57 AM on November 7 [44 favorites]


Rohrabacher (R-Moscow) behind Rouda (D), with a 2,252 vote deficit at 91% reporting (358 of 395 precincts).
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:58 AM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Particularly (as in Maine and New York) with Dem trifectas.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:58 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


California is underperforming slightly in flipping House seats so far (though we're still gonna get some!) but if Rohrabacher (R-Putin's Footstool) is one of the ones that do fall it will all be worth it. We'll finally have broken the Orange Curtain! Couldn't happen to a nicer asshole.

*holds up lighter and cues the Scorpion's "Wind of Change" up on the ol' cassette deck*

I want to see Tester hold MT before bed but I'm not sure they're counting fast enough. The models still think he has it which would be big. Holding MT despite the Senate problems plus the pickup in NV would mean the Senate results are survivable. Not good. But we avoided the apocalyptic scenario and still have a map for 2020 regardless of what happens in AZ. (Where we might still win but are now 3-2 underdogs per NYT.)
posted by Justinian at 1:03 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Ds won 6 trifectas and lost none. Rs won no trifectas and lost 3.
posted by chris24 at 1:05 AM on November 7 [19 favorites]


And with absentee votes coming in, McBath (D) is now up on Handel (R) in GA-06.
posted by chris24 at 1:07 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Rouda (D) is looking decent over Rohrabacher (R) in CA-48, but with a couple thousand vote margin, I wouldn't really feel confident until we have a good picture of the uncounted vote-by-mail ballots, which can trickle in as late as Friday. CA's counties often use 100% precincts reporting to mean "we counted some stuff, there's probably a hell of a lot more, see you eventually." I'm really hoping there isn't a narrow red sweep of every California tossup district; that would be exactly the nationwide nightmare scenario of Rs erking out tiny wins in district after district that I went into tonight dreading, yet merely localized entirely within my state.

I haven't digested all of Politico's big ‘Please Stop Saying Red Wave’: Inside Democrats’ Takeover of the House: By the time White House aides convinced Trump he could lose, it was too late (or the equally large equivalent features from the Post and McClatchy that also dropped tonight), but here's a quote:
Brimming with frustration one Sunday in September, Yoder placed a phone call to Steve Stivers, chairman of the NRCC. Word had leaked that his group, the House GOP’s campaign arm, planned to cut $1.2 million in TV spending that would have buoyed him in the suburban district. But the committee had a poll showing Yoder trailed Davids by high single-digits and suddenly pulled the rug out from under him. Yoder learned of the development from press reports, not the committee.

“When people ask me what I think of you, I can’t decide whether to tell them you’re a fucking idiot or a fucking liar,” Yoder growled at Stivers. “But now I think you’re both.”
Yoder is on track to lose by 9.
posted by zachlipton at 1:23 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]


Sinema’s still lagging behind McSally by about 14,000 votes, with most of the remaining precincts in Pinal county. That’s basically Florence, where the prison is. I’m not hopeful.
posted by Weeping_angel at 1:23 AM on November 7


What especially frosts me about that is that McSally was clearly going to be appointed to the Flake seat anyway, it's not like she needs this.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:31 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


For NM-2, I'm seeing Herrell (R) up by 1% with 95% of precincts reporting. Do you have other info?

Just a verbal report 4 hours ago from a New Mexico resident in town, comparing results. Sorry.
posted by msalt at 1:58 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I think I was too pessimistic about the CA districts earlier. There’s a lot of ballots left to count, and at least four districts (CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48) that are quite close to D pickups. CA-25 is a 100 vote tie right now. It’s about just as easy to advance a “Republicans hold their ground on CA” narrative as a “Democratic wave throws blue state Rs out” one at this point. If late vote-by-mail ballots break as blue as they did in 2016, I think there's decent odds of some good news out of a bunch of these districts, which, at the rate CA counts ballots, we'll find out about eventually, in the fullness of time, someday.
posted by zachlipton at 2:14 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


How did turn out end up comparing to 2016 and 2014?
posted by os tuberoes at 2:38 AM on November 7


This is what’s been happening in Maricopa County.
Despite a polling-place foreclosure, malfunctioning ballot printers and complaints of long voting lines, Fontes said Tuesday morning had been "a typical election day with typical, run-of-the-mill problems."

He acknowledged that some of the county's 503 polling places had "our typical very long lines," but said the county's elections operations had experienced only minor problems and blamed the delays on massive turnout.

"The question of long lines," he added, "is really relative." At many polling places, he said, it took less than a minute to check in each voter — four times faster than before. And most American voters, he said, expected to wait between 20 and 30 minutes, anyway.
It would be interesting to find out whether there is any correlation between polling places having been affected by slowdowns and glitches and having historically skewed Democratic.
posted by flabdablet at 2:50 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Oh god, the margin in Nelson/Scott's Senate race in Florida just closed within the automatic recount range. Oh god why.

Justinian would you like some xanax caramels
posted by duffell at 2:54 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]


According to Dave Wasserman (of Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight and NBC), Tester looks likely to hold on to his flat top senate seat. I realize it's part of his brand and all, but it always appealed to me that there still was a working farmer in the U.S. senate. Also, he just seems like about as decent a person as one can expect in high political office.
posted by Kattullus at 2:56 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Calling them something less immediately derogatory than “Corporate Dems” would be a start.

We'll see - Pelosi is already braying about bipartisanship, even after almost two years of getting beat over the head. Some of these people are so rotted through with corporate accommodation that they'll never learn to fight.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:15 AM on November 7 [22 favorites]


I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I understand that other people don't feel this way


New Metafilter merch?
posted by LizBoBiz at 3:20 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I find the stickers a little patronizing.

I kind of feel the same way, too, but at least here in NYC the stickers are functional in that they help you avoid getting accosted by street campaign workers on election day.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 3:25 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Ds won 6 trifectas and lost none. Rs won no trifectas and lost 3.

It's interesting that more of the low-visibility races are going Democratic, while more of the high-visibility races are going Republican.

Is there any chance that Trump has attracted a bloc of low-motivation voters, the ones who have to be really worked up before they'll learn about candidates and cast their votes? The ones who can't be bothered with down-ballot races?
posted by clawsoon at 3:53 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Do they stop counting when it gets too late? ME-02 is still deadlocked at 46 all but the R incumbent is ahead roughly 800 votes with 72% reporting.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:56 AM on November 7


Something that's good news to me: Trump appears to have called Nancy Pelosi to congratulate her, which makes it likely that he isn't going to challenge the Democrats' control of the House or try to refuse to seat new representatives - both possibilities that have been giving me the screaming fantods these past couple of weeks. And if he isn't beating the drum about how the Democrats are illegitimate, the likelihood of violence goes down.

Granted, I'm pretty horrified that this is a real consideration, but at least it broke our way. And treating this election as normal lays the groundwork for treating the next one, when we god-willing throw that asshole out, as also normal. I mean, I am haunted by the likelihood of an actual GOP military coup, and every election with normal transitions reduces that possibility.
posted by Frowner at 3:59 AM on November 7 [47 favorites]


Dead brothel owner Dennis Hof (R) overwhelmingly won his seat in Nevada's state assembly.

What a country.
posted by clawsoon at 4:05 AM on November 7 [32 favorites]


(Slept well for the first time in weeks. Don't think I'll ever stay up for election results again, even in 2020.)

I'm so relieved to hear about the House. I really hope Dems are not stupid enough to run away from Pelosi - she is by far the best leader they have.

Those gubernatorial losses are really disheartening. We really needed Ohio and Florida. I hope every Dem that loses by a 1 percent margin or less requests a recount. Even if they don't win, they will be underscoring the fact that the winner does -not- have a mandate and should not be allowed to govern like they have one.

Also just want to add that I've always hated the Blue Wave slogan and wish it hadn't been adopted as a rallying cry by Dems. A wave goes back out to sea. We need to keep up this level of engagement, as exhausting and expensive as it is, forever.
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:15 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


We'll see - Pelosi is already braying about bipartisanship, even after almost two years of getting beat over the head. Some of these people are so rotted through with corporate accommodation that they'll never learn to fight.

I'm less than comfortable with the language of this comment, but this is my fear as well--a one-seat majority in the house is only worth something if you have a disciplined caucus, which is not exactly something Democrats excel at.

I suppose the real win is committee control, though.
posted by hoyland at 4:17 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Pleasing thread,

@missmayn: "Trump has endorsed 11 Republicans running for Governor, 31 House candidates and 13 Senate candidates and I've screenshot every one of them and will let him know every one that loses."
posted by Buntix at 4:18 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]


So, some good news, some bad news. At least I'm not lying on the bathroom floor in shock like I was in 2016. I just sent a fax to my rep, the doughty and reliable Elijah Cummings, congratulating him on his (never in doubt) victory, and telling him that in his position as Chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee I trust him to spearhead a thorough and merciless investigation of the Trump crime family. The rule of law must be restored to America.
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:18 AM on November 7 [30 favorites]


This thread shows exactly how little Trump’s last ditch campaigning helped.

@missmayn Trump has endorsed 11 Republicans running for Governor, 31 House candidates and 13 Senate candidates and I've screenshot every one of them and will let him know every one that loses.

Jim Renacci, has lost to Sherrod Brown
Leah Vukmir, has lost to Tammy Baldwin
Bob Hugin, has lost to Bob Menendez
Keith Rothfus, has lost to Conor Lamb
Patrick Morrissey, has lost to Joe Manchin
Kevin Yoder, has lost to Native American and openly gay attorney Sharice Davids
Kris Kobach, has lost to Laura Kelly
Dan Donovan, has lost to Max Rose
Erik Paulsen, has lost his MN-3 seat to Dean Phillips
Randy Hultgren, has lost his seat in Illinois' 14th congressional district to Lauren Underwood
John James, doesn't have the stamina to beat U.S. Senator, Debbie Stabenow, in the state of Michigan
Rod Blum, has lost to 29-year-old Abby Finkenauer in Iowa's 1st congressional district!
John Cox, loses heavily to Gavin Newson for the California Governorship
Dave Brat, loses to Abigail Spanberger in VA-7!
John Faso, loses big to Antonio Delgado
Claudia Tenney is projected to lose in New York's 22nd Congressional district
"very special" Scott Walker loses re-election bid for Wisconsin Governor

A bunch more... and my favorite: Karen Handel, loses her House seat to Democrat Lucy McBath in GA-6
posted by rainydayfilms at