One woman and five men enter...
October 7, 2019 9:13 AM Subscribe

After a couple of scandals (previously and previously) and a bunch of policy announcements (previously), Canada's federal party leaders are meeting at 7pm EDT tonight for the only official English-language debate. Watch in English, French, LSQ, ASL, Ojibwe, Plains Cree, Inuktitut, Cantonese, Mandarin, Italian, Punjabi, or Arabic, or at one of the many viewing parties at movie theatres, libraries and bookstores across the country.

This debate comes after an unofficial English debate which Trudeau skipped and an unofficial French debate to which the Greens and PPC were not invited. The official French debate will happen this Thursday.

posted by clawsoon (217 comments total) 12 users marked this as a favorite

I read a news item too fast, and thought it said 'Federal leaders face in off-language debate', and got really fucking excited. Fuck yeah! Let's fucking do this!

Then I read it again, saw that it said 'face off in English language debate', and my electoral ennui reasserted itself.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:22 AM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Fuddle duddle!
posted by Kabanos at 9:45 AM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

I think it's nice to note that, in contrast to the candidates, the moderators for the debate are all women:
• Susan Delacourt, Ottawa bureau chief, Toronto Star
• Dawna Friesen, national anchor, Global News
• Althia Raj, Ottawa bureau chief, HuffPost Canada
• Lisa LaFlamme, chief news anchor, CTV News
• Rosemary Barton, chief correspondent of political coverage and live specials, CBC News
posted by Kabanos at 9:55 AM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

I think it's nice to note that, in contrast to the candidates, the moderators for the debate are all women

Yeah, but five and 80% white? Why not just grab one more and have a moderator for each candidate? And why bother humouring Global by pretending they still have anything resembling a news org?
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:36 AM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

I'm genuinely impressed by the number of languages it's being broadcast in. I'm also glad it's being put on YouTube, since I won't be able to watch it live and will want to watch the whole thing after the fact, rather than just whatever highlights end up getting shared on social media.
posted by asnider at 11:17 AM on October 7, 2019

Via Twitter:

Take a shot whenever [blank] is mentioned:

- Working Families
- The Middle Class
- Pocketbook
- I apologized for that.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:20 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Why are there five moderators? I don’t get that at all. Need more than one? Try two then. Why five?
posted by ThatCanadianGirl at 2:54 PM on October 7, 2019

Now I'm regretting not titling the post "One woman and five men and five moderators enter..."

I'm pretty sure five moderators were chosen to please all the members of the broadcast consortium.
posted by clawsoon at 3:19 PM on October 7, 2019

Why are there five moderators?

It's more efficient given the shape of the core and the arrangement of the fuel rods.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:34 PM on October 7, 2019 [17 favorites]

So the majority of people in the audience are facing the backs of the debaters? What even is the point of having them there (the extra audience members)?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 4:03 PM on October 7, 2019

Livestream working?

Check.

Bernier out of the gate with a comment about "globalists?"

Check.

Two generous fingers of Bushmills in a glass?

Check.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:05 PM on October 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Nice to see that the moderators are putting Bernier's tweets right out there.
posted by clawsoon at 4:11 PM on October 7, 2019

OK, I generally don't like to play the Western alienation card, but fuck the networks on the scheduling of this. There's a lot of us in AB just leaving work right now, and its 4pm in BC.
posted by nubs at 4:11 PM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

CBC Radio has the debate, if you're driving home.
posted by clawsoon at 4:14 PM on October 7, 2019

Why the hell is Bernier even getting air time here? He's only polling ~1% and he's already killing any hope of reasonable debate between the others. Shut the fuck up Bernier...
posted by Arandia at 4:14 PM on October 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

The timing of the debate does seem oddly early, TBH.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:14 PM on October 7, 2019

It's almost 9pm in Newfoundland, if that makes anybody feel better.
posted by clawsoon at 4:17 PM on October 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

12 seconds in and I already regret my decision to watch this.
posted by chrominance at 4:18 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

I'm in Vancouver so am going to get takeout and beer and double-fist this and the Dodgers game in my hotel room...but I'm still in a conference session.
posted by avocet at 4:21 PM on October 7, 2019

"BUT WHAT ABOUT DIVERSITY OF OPINION"

Just once in my life I want to hear that phrase followed by an actually interesting idea that I've never heard before instead of a warmed-over alt-right talking point.
posted by clawsoon at 4:38 PM on October 7, 2019 [9 favorites]

Blanchet is speaking against the translation of what he said in the French debate as "vote for people who look like you". Too bad he didn't have time to say what he thought a better translation would be.
posted by clawsoon at 4:43 PM on October 7, 2019

Bernier and May agreeing on something - that was a special moment.
posted by clawsoon at 4:50 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Listening to Mad Max he-peating Elizabeth May's points is going to make my head explode.

No dude, you are definitely not the only one to say no corporation is above the law.
posted by rpfields at 4:50 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Blanchet definitely has the most ominous tone of the debate so far with, "And Quebec will make theirs..."
posted by clawsoon at 4:55 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

CBC Radio has the debate, if you're driving home.

Thanks for the tip, but rush hour by itself is enough for my blood pressure.
posted by nubs at 5:09 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

"Mr delay and mr deny" - that was a pretty good line imo.
posted by Arandia at 5:09 PM on October 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

I've been in and out in chunks on this debate, both online and on the radio in the car. Hot takes:

On TV:
What a lot of somber looking outfits! It's like a funeral.

On Radio: I think Singh was sounding really good on radio. Scheer sounded calm and friendly, but I doubt he's changing any minds. Bernier's English is worse than I remember; M. Blanchet has more life in his voice. May is comfortable speaking, as always, but seems a bit thrown by this format? Trudeau not sounding particularly passionate.

In general:
Trudeau seems to be keeping back a bit? Almost like he's playing defence and trying to avoid gaffes. In terms of changing voter's intentions, I'd say at this point hat Singh is "winning". He's sounding passionate, and isn't stumbling as much as he used to in his early days as leader.

Edit: Singh— "...Mr. Delay or Mr. Deny" ZING!
posted by Kabanos at 5:15 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

I'm kind of surprised (still) that none of the leaders have come up with a better, or at least more nuanced, position in opposition to Quebec's Bill 21. Singh danced around how he was against it, but wouldn't do anything against it as PM. Same deal of course from Scheer. I can't believe they let Trudeau whack them over the head with his own weak position ("I'm leaving the door open just a crack to maybe possibly do something about it, we'll see... but you're NOT!"). This was a predictable topic – how could the opposition teams not prep a more effective response!

(I know, the answer is hang on to those Quebec votes with all your might... but fuck.)
posted by Kabanos at 5:21 PM on October 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Love him or hate him, I think Warren Kinsella makes a good point here about the Bernier effect on this debate:
"Trudeau pushed to have Bernier on this to hurt Scheer. It’s made Scheer look moderate. "
posted by Kabanos at 5:26 PM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

In terms of changing voter's intentions, I'd say at this point hat Singh is "winning".

Where have you gone, NDP candidates/a nation turns its lonely eyes to you
posted by nubs at 5:27 PM on October 7, 2019

Kabanos - I fully agree re bill 21. Honestly it's embarrassing to see the tyranny of the majority play out yet again. Just because a bill is popular shouldn't override that it is discriminatory, and to me there really is no room for negotiation here.
posted by Arandia at 5:27 PM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Trudeau pushed to have Bernier in the debate? Probably explains why he's sitting back, and why he is trying to limit the debates too. Have the others appear as the crazies or at least the noisys, and come off as calm and moderate. Clever, and maybe a little Machevalian...
posted by Arandia at 5:33 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

I'm definitely voting for Elizabeth Singh this time around.
posted by clawsoon at 5:36 PM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Trudeau pushed to have Bernier in the debate?

Well those are Kinsella's words. Take with a grain of salt since he's currently out for Trudeau's scalp. I suppose each campaign did try to influence the decision, I have no idea how Bernier's inclusion was determined.
posted by Kabanos at 5:36 PM on October 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

On October 21st, I want to vote for my preferred (single!) moderator for next election.
posted by Kabanos at 5:45 PM on October 7, 2019

I have no idea how Bernier's inclusion was determined.

Officially: The debate commission initially rejected him because they decided he didn't meet the criteria. Bernier appealed the decision, and the commission changed its mind:

"You have satisfied me that you intend to field candidates in 90 per cent of ridings and, based on recent political context, public opinion polls and previous general election results, I consider that more than one candidate of your party has a legitimate chance to be elected," David Johnston, the former governor general who leads the commission, wrote to Bernier on Monday.

Official decision. Debate commission letter to PPC.
posted by clawsoon at 5:46 PM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

That was a pretty good line about carbon offsets being something privileged people buy, though I didn't catch the whole sentence and am doubtful about the messenger.
posted by clawsoon at 5:51 PM on October 7, 2019

I want to see a parking lot fight between Bernier and Scheer. It will be the saddest dudebro fight you've ever seen, but still.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:57 PM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Most Winning Sound Bites: (1st) Singh, (2nd) Scheer, (3rd) May

Softer Colour Suit Because I'm Not Mean Award: (Tie) Scheer & Bernier

Relitigating and Old Leadership Battle Award: Bernier

Look at My Hair Award: Trudeau
posted by Kabanos at 5:59 PM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Okay it's done. Everyone go have a shower.
posted by Kabanos at 6:00 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

I bet Scheer saved that zinger about Trudeau running for the provincial Liberals for weeks.
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:02 PM on October 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

May telling Scheer he has no hope of winning was interesting to me. I wonder if that'll have any effect on what people take away from the debate.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:03 PM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

May telling Scheer he has no hope of winning was interesting to me.

In between the uncomfortable writhing and fist-clenching on the couch chez nous, that was one of the few belly-laugh moments.

Well played, Elizabeth May.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:05 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

I lasted about 4 seconds, because I hate the format of these debates which makes it easy for the candidates to devolve into talking loudly over each.

So, thank you good people of Metafilter for doing the heavy lifting.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 6:08 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

that was one of the few belly-laugh moments

I grinned at Singh's comment that he wore a bright orange turban today so that no one would mistake him for Andrew Scheer.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:13 PM on October 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

CBC live blog and fact checking looks like a good way to go back through the debate and claims the leaders made.
posted by clawsoon at 6:15 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

It seemed like there was very little of "let me tell you a story about a Canadian who is struggling because ______". I wonder if that kind of emotional appeal could've helped some of the candidates, or if 45 seconds is not enough time to tell that kind of story.
posted by clawsoon at 6:18 PM on October 7, 2019

Post-debate radio panel points out how confusingly clever it was for Scheer to agree with Singh's condemnation of Trudeau's appeal of the Human Rights Commission decision on Indigenous compensation just a few minutes after Scheer said (with much blander language) that he'd do exactly the same thing Trudeau is doing.

Scheer was definitely going for the "I'm not scary, look at Bernier he's scary" angle in this one.
posted by clawsoon at 6:35 PM on October 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

The Macleans twitter account has a good selection of debate clips if you don't want to watch the whole thing.
posted by clawsoon at 6:50 PM on October 7, 2019

I can't believe they let Trudeau whack them over the head with his own weak position ("I'm leaving the door open just a crack to maybe possibly do something about it, we'll see... but you're NOT!").

As PM, he can't hide like he did last time, but he can still say nothing.

In the last election, with its fake issue of taking the citizenship oath while veiled, Mulcair took the heat for (rightly) saying that it was discriminatory, and lost seats for taking a stand. Trudeau was ostensibly against it too, but during the debate did his best to stand absolutely still and hope no-one noticed that he wasn't saying anything.

I saw you, Trudeau. I saw how you stood up against discrimination. I saw your profile in courage.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:54 PM on October 7, 2019

That was exhausting; Singh was awesome, Justin was (frustratingly) careful wallpaper, and Scheer felt flaccid.

Watching the scrums, and the fuckwits from Rebel Media are being fuckwits and taking up time with chest pounding nonsense.
posted by jrochest at 7:08 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

What the fuck is Scheer saying about the RCMP not being allowed to do their job? I think I missed that moment...
posted by jrochest at 7:18 PM on October 7, 2019

What the fuck is Scheer saying about the RCMP not being allowed to do their job? I think I missed that moment...

Pretty sure that's about SNC-Lavalin and cabinet confidentiality.
posted by clawsoon at 7:23 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ugh, Rebel News is now bonding with Mad Max. Ugh. I thought the Bloc handled them best.
posted by rpfields at 7:33 PM on October 7, 2019

Clips winning the Twitter re-tweet race so far, numbers as of now:

Singh: "You do not need to choose between Mr. Delay and Mr. Deny." 888

Scheer: "There is a vacancy for the Ontario Liberal leadership." 411

Singh: "A man has no position in a discussion on a woman's right to choose." 188

Trudeau: "Jason Kenney and Doug Ford, and other Conservatives premiers don't want to do anything on climate change." 181

Singh: "I wore a bright orange turban on purpose today!" 143

May: "Mr. Scheer, that may be the worst idea in your whole non-platform." 71

Singh: "You could've just said 'Hey, man. I messed up'." 63
posted by clawsoon at 7:49 PM on October 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

/clawsoon that is the weirdest approach to that issue that I've yet heard.
posted by jrochest at 8:02 PM on October 7, 2019

Watching the scrums, and the fuckwits from Rebel Media are being fuckwits and taking up time with chest pounding nonsense.

Keean Bexte is an actual full-bore neo-Nazi.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:12 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Canadaland: No Indigenous Journalist Among Debate Moderators. Instead, An Offer To Be A Human “Mic Stand.”
posted by Kabanos at 8:13 PM on October 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

I'm having trouble figuring out how to link this directly, so I'll cut-and-paste from a Global News/Ipsos Twitter volume and sentiment blog post:

Following the conclusion of the debate, here is how the sentiment and volume of the Twitter conversation has changed concerning the leaders, according to Ipsos’ Canadian Political Atlas.

The number of mentions per minute has been amplified by approximately 10 times per party.

Here is the volume before:

[graph with Trudeau and Scheer being mentioned 5-6x as much as everybody else]

And here it is after:

[graph with Singh being mentioned about half as often as Trudeau and Scheer]

Net sentiment toward Jagmeet Singh has moved more strongly into positive territory (a score of 70, or 20 points above neutral).

Sentiment toward all other parties now sits in the negative range, with Trudeau and May tied for the lowest rating at 39.

Here is the sentiment before:

[graph with Bernier way ahead of everybody]

Here is the sentiment after:

[graph with Singh way ahead of everybody and rising]

If anybody wants to figure out how to link to the original post, start here and go a couple of pages back.
posted by clawsoon at 9:03 PM on October 7, 2019

There is nothing that Canadian conservatives like complaining about more than the CBC's bias, and there is no place that Canadian conservatives like commenting more than in the CBC's comment section.
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 PM on October 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

Just ouit of curiosity, did anyone mention rental housing? Because this country is in a full scale crisis concerning rental housing these days.

My guess is no.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 9:42 PM on October 7, 2019

Nobody talked about housing at all, which was frustrating.

Also, the Rebel Media Fuckwits are swarming me on twitter, because I called them yipping nimrods, which is apparently An Insult Worthy Of Death.
posted by jrochest at 9:44 PM on October 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

Singh briefly talked about how the federal government and the provinces used to build housing together and should do so again. That was the closest anybody came.
posted by clawsoon at 9:46 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

yipping nimrods made me laugh out loud, so thank you, and thank you and clawsoon for the responses.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 9:48 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Here are the exactly 10 seconds that housing got, at the tail end of a discussion about federal and provincial jurisdiction.
posted by clawsoon at 9:53 PM on October 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

jrochest: because I called them yipping nimrods

But surely they'd be pleased to be compared to the mighty hunter of the Bible.
posted by clawsoon at 9:56 PM on October 7, 2019

I despise everything about Bloc Québécois, and their racism, separatism, and support for Bill 21, but I gained serious respect for Blanchet for basically ignoring and laughing at a Rebel Media dope at the post-event presser.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:59 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

I'm really quite stunned that they're giving it so much attention. I assume they didn't generate nearly as much heat as they expected to, so maybe an English prof with a minute number of Twitter followers is the best they can do?
posted by jrochest at 10:01 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

You're a woman, an English professor, and a Liberal supporter? You're the incarnation of everything that Jordan Peterson has told them to fear and loathe. You're causing the collapse of Western Civilization as we sit here typing.

(The fact that you probably know more about western civilization than all of them put together is a mere distraction from the forces of Feminine Chaos and Marxist Postmodernism that you embody.)
posted by clawsoon at 10:05 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

They are having a field day with the fact that I'm an assistant prof -- I'm tenured but still don't have promotion to associate -- and they don't seem able to find my publications, so they are convinced that there is some Deep Conspiracy behind me having my job.

It's a bit hard for them to argue that I'm a Marxist post-modernist as I'm a Shakespeare prof. I mean, I am, but they're too dumb to get that.
posted by jrochest at 10:10 PM on October 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Figured this might be a good place to link a useful tool for comparing everyone's stated positions. Just what they all say, without any attempt at assessment or analysis. Disclaimer: it is my brother's website, if you'll forgive the near-self-link.
posted by Arandia at 11:13 PM on October 7, 2019

I was super impressed with Singh. Scheer sounded like a robot and Trudeau sounded somewhat robotic too. Everyone sounded better than Scheer and Trudeau last night (delivery - not platforms - man, Bernier is frightening). I guess as the frontrunners Scheer and Trudeau were both so focussed on message.

Scheer usually sounds weak but I've heard Trudeau speak much better.

jrochest I'm sorry that you are dealing with twitter twits.
posted by biggreenplant at 4:29 AM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

90-year-old aunt in Saskatchewan report: Impressed by Singh.
posted by clawsoon at 5:19 AM on October 8, 2019 [4 favorites]

How many times did Scheer agree with Singh's attack on Trudeau when Scheer's policy was the same or worse than Trudeau's? "Trudeau is giving tax breaks to the biggest polluters." "Yeah, Trudeau, you're letting off the biggest polluters!" [me checks Scheer's platform, confused] "Trudeau is fighting compensation that Indigenous people deserve." "Yeah, Trudeau, you're so mean to the Indigenous!" [me checks Scheer's platform, confused] It was a Beaverton-level pattern.

I'm really hoping someone puts a list together, because that wasn't on my pre-debate bingo card at all.

It would've made for a great drinking game, because you'd get more and more confused as you got drunker and drunker, and pretty soon you'd be mixing up Scheer and Singh like the moderators and Trudeau did.
posted by clawsoon at 5:35 AM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

jrochest: I'm really quite stunned that they're giving it so much attention.

I see they're still going at it this morning. Ugh. You must've been mentioned in some Internet cesspool and now the shitlumps are overflowing in your direction. I hope they get bored and you're able to scrub the smell off.
posted by clawsoon at 5:45 AM on October 8, 2019

I know it’s terrible, but I’m afraid Jagmeet’s charisma will siphon enough votes to give us a Conservative minority. This wouldn’t be a huge problem if the Liberals, who are almost guaranteed to have the second largest number of MPs in the House of Commons, hadn’t demonstrated during the Harper years that they are too vain and stupid to enter coalitions. The CPC is anti-democracy, anti-science, overtly Christian, and in my own opinion, borderline pro-US annexation/interested in Americanizing our politics (in part by moving the Overton Window to the distant right). I never want them in power again.
Though it was before my time, I cannot forgive the merger of Reform and the Progressive Conservatives. All it has done is given Reform scum a mask to wear as they hide their white supremacy and borderline-Christian Dominionism under a blanket of equivocation and obfuscation. The disguise works! Undiscerning Boomers like my father look at them and think they’re a reasonable alternative; a good vote for when you want to punish the “leftist excesses” of the Liberals. Make no mistake- Scheer is another Harper, only this time he comes in the body of an elongated cherub, instead of the original creepy, printer paper-skinned homunculus eager to demonstrate it’s capable of resisting its natural temptation to consume live kittens.
posted by constantinescharity at 5:48 AM on October 8, 2019 [5 favorites]

Interesting: How Renata Ford’s ‘legitimate chance’ at a seat in Etobicoke North helped land Maxime Bernier a place at the leaders’ debate (might be paywalled)
posted by clawsoon at 5:55 AM on October 8, 2019

If the Conservatives had a Diefenbaker or Mulroney, someone who could believably muster deep outrage at corruption, I think they'd be doing much better this election. A Liberal government caught in scandals is the classic road to a Conservative sweep in Canada. Scheer says the words and tries on the outrage, but he just don't got it.

His name-drop of Diefenbaker last night reminded me of that much-more-effective politician.
posted by clawsoon at 6:42 AM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

They were playing clips on the CBC this morning, and using one of Scheer’s lines about Trudeau being dishonest as an example of a good attack...and I looked at my wife and said “the guy who lied on his resume and hid his dual citizenship gets praise for attacking another guy for being dishonest?”

Anyways, does seem like Singh did well last night. Shame I have no NDP candidate to vote for.
posted by nubs at 7:26 AM on October 8, 2019 [3 favorites]

Mr. Scheer is definitely no Diefenbaker or Mulroney.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:27 AM on October 8, 2019

I was not especially impressed by last night's debate (open debate periods are stupid), but I thought some of the moderators did well, Rosemary Barton, Lisa LaFlamme, and Althia Raj in particular.

I watched the debate on the CBC and was disappointed by the commentary on The National that followed. Even Barton, who I generally respect, cared more about who got the best zingers than about who seemed to actually know what they're talking about.

My gf likes to call Elizabeth May "crazy" (I don't quite get why; she doesn't always know when to stop, but there are worse things), but these events always remind me why I like her. She's the only candidate who ever manages to speak deeply about much of anything, and she's got that amazing Lisa Simpson grasp of policy issues and ramifications at her fingertips and she's always got some local person or fact or whatever to *celebrate* when they get a question from Joe or Jane Doe from Smalltown Corners or wherever. I also appreciated her explanation of the Green party's stance on whipped votes during the post-debate scrum. She is very often the leader I want, but her party has been a shit-show every time I've engaged with it locally. I still remember years ago when I was living in Sudbury the one candidate that hadn't changed his clothes in a three months, and the other who was in his second year of undergrad and running because they couldn't get anyone else, and I still see a lot of that vibe in some of their lower-profile candidates.

Singh was my second favourite. He seemed less polished and less comfortable, but I felt like he was actually trying to get something across. I felt like there was a lot more there and he was being held back by the "political operative" version of how you "win" these things, even if that's not what actually went on. I wished he'd spent less time attacking Trudeau and more time making a positive, non-soundbite case for NDP policies. His Trudeau attacks ultimately wound up being launching platforms for Scheer, and fuck propping that guy up. I like him personally and feel like the NDP has gotten it's shit together in the last few weeks, but I don't want to go down that road yet again.
posted by Fish Sauce at 7:51 AM on October 8, 2019 [3 favorites]

cared more about who got the best zingers than about who seemed to actually know what they're talking about.

Unfortunately, I think that's what televised debates are all about. How are you supposed to determine which party to vote for with a format like this? People talking over each other?
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:02 AM on October 8, 2019

Yeah, "debates" have become pointless. It's not about substance, it's about a highlight reel of good zingers and one-liners.
posted by nubs at 8:42 AM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

clawson, Ezra Levant tweeted at me -- taking the 'yipping nimrod' comment as being directed at him rather than Keean Bexte, who was playing 'journalist' for the night. I think that's all it took. But it's fading -- I just didn't bother responding, and there's nothing they hate more than being ignored.

Debates used to be more in-depth. In this case, I think more time would have been spent on spouting very careful messages, which might not have been much better.
posted by jrochest at 8:47 AM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

I seriously don't know why we still do these things, who learned anything yesterday? Are we supposed to vote for the person with the best zingers? Debates should be about exposing the pros & cons of different idea of governance/policies, there's none of that in modern election campaign debates.

I'd seriously be down for a format where every leader has x minutes for a presentation of their program, and its followed by a question period (from other leaders + reporters). That would be a snooze fest but it would be more informative than this mess.

But politics should be somewhat boring, we're deciding on serious policy/leadership issues affecting our whole society but the coverage is more akin to play by play analysis during the intermissions in a hockey game. Too much about what the politicians are doing, not enough about the actual policies.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:46 AM on October 8, 2019 [3 favorites]

My hot take is that the debate was mostly a waste of time, except possibly for Singh and May. May is a loose canon a lot of the time with a crunchy nut centre, but she was an entertaining one last night. Scheer continued to provide no answers about the CPC platform, and Trudeau didn't have a major scandal drop (as the prince of darkness/shit pilled as high as a human was crowing about on twitter last Friday).

So a wash, in my view.
posted by bonehead at 10:07 AM on October 8, 2019

Youse guys and Paul Wells pretty much vindicated my choice to not bother with the debate.

when 11 people share two hours of screen time, it’s hard to go in depth [...] It’s frustrating to rate one-liners, but the evening didn’t leave room for much else [...] Democracy was served, by 11 people plus members of the studio audience and others like it from coast to coast to coast, in a tidy package that had the decency to end before the most lucrative part of prime time began.

Also, via Robert Jago, for whom I would pay good money - or at least some of my Canadian Tire money - to see moderate a debate:

2019 Debate from a parallel universe ... I turn things over to my colleague from APTN, for the portion of this debate dedicated to Indigenous Affairs. APTN: Thank-you, and to the leaders on this stage, I invite each of you in 30 seconds to make your appeal to Indigenous voters...

posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:16 AM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

'd seriously be down for a format where every leader has x minutes for a presentation of their program, and its followed by a question period (from other leaders + reporters).

That would presume all the parties actually released a platform before something like this.
posted by nubs at 10:26 AM on October 8, 2019

On the whole nut thing, May's not a terrible person by any means, but she has a problem with woo: Elizabeth May's shaky track record on science.
posted by bonehead at 10:31 AM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

That would presume all the parties actually released a platform before something like this.

I’d make that a criteria for participation, and also it has to be available n days before the presentation, so that informed questions can be formulated.

Your platform is not supposed to be a surprise.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:37 AM on October 8, 2019

Party leaders spar over Canada’s only province of Quebec
posted by bonehead at 11:38 AM on October 8, 2019 [3 favorites]

From the Beaverton link...

Meanwhile Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hosted a translation seminar on the word “seal” just so he could say the word “fuck” on live television.

Gotta admit I laughed at that one way too much.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:42 AM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

Your platform is not supposed to be a surprise.

I agree; and yet the Conservatives are still to release one. I, for one, am shocked that it didn't happen before the debates. Shocked.
posted by nubs at 12:58 PM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

Am I the only one who appreciated the debate for the imperfect political spectacle it inevitably is? You get to hear the parts that they want to talk over, and the parts they want to say clearly. You get to see how they handle cacophony and conflict. You get to see what they want to condense into a clear, straightforward idea and what they want to waffle and change the subject on.
posted by clawsoon at 2:07 PM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

and yet the Conservatives are still to release one. I, for one, am shocked that it didn't happen before the debates. Shocked.

Although Scheer usually frowns and claims not to be familiar with the name when Doug Ford is mentioned, he has no problem using his playbook. The problem, of course, is that DoFo was campaigning against a Liberal party in power for three increasingly corrupt and entitled terms. Scheer who leads a CPC suddenly very very concerned about racism is gambling that Canadians will be extremely upset about Trudeau’s brownface costume from a previous century. Admittedly very poor taste, but so is pretending to be an insurance broker.

Anyway, I see no end of Tory apologists online who insist that the fully budgeted CPC platform is out there for all to read. When pressed for a link, they spread some tawdry rumour about Trudeau and then vanish.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:36 PM on October 8, 2019 [3 favorites]

Also, via Robert Jago, for whom I would pay good money - or at least some of my Canadian Tire money - to see moderate a debate

Outstanding.

Here's the Threadreader version for people so inclined.

Anyway, I see no end of Tory apologists online who insist that the fully budgeted CPC platform is out there for all to read. When pressed for a link, they spread some tawdry rumour about Trudeau and then vanish.

"It's magic!"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:54 PM on October 8, 2019

I haven't had a chance to watch the CBC Face to Face series, in which undecided voters ask the leaders questions one-on-one. Anybody watch it yet? Was it any more revealing than the debates?
posted by clawsoon at 4:58 PM on October 8, 2019

Your platform is not supposed to be a surprise.

The ceeb had (supposedly) undecided voters weigh in on their impression of the debate this morning, and one guy kept going on and on about how he wanted specifics. He wanted detail! He wanted to know exact specific details on how much this was all going to cost!

No, you don't. People who follow politics don't even read that stuff. The numbers can be made to say anything anyway. No-one decides their vote by line items, so quit lying. You're either pretending to be undecided so that people listen to you for once, or you're a moron. Or both. You shouldn't get to decide anything.

Grr.
posted by Capt. Renault at 5:01 PM on October 8, 2019

ricochet biscuit: When pressed for a link, they spread some tawdry rumour about Trudeau and then vanish.

Somebody over at The Tyee pointed out that Scheer used a similar tactic in his first political victory, when Nystrom was outrageously accused by Scheer of being soft on child pornography.
posted by clawsoon at 5:03 PM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ugh.

The owners of a family-run restaurant in Toronto have closed up shop rather than deal with the constant threat of violence from Yellow Vest types and Bernier supporters.

And let's not forget that Scheer welcomed Yellow Vests to Ottawa during their cross-country hatefest.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:12 PM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

CBC Radio And The Creep Of White Supremacy

On Monday I saw some PPC signs in front of houses near my kids' school. It was down to one house today. Sad to see but at least it lets me know where the racists live.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:13 PM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

CBC Radio And The Creep Of White Supremacy

Mary Weins is doing the series for one local candidate from most parties, and Mary Weins is the softest softy of an interviewer who ever did softy. She usually does stories on the poorest and weakest, people who deserve her overflowing empathy.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 PM on October 8, 2019

*Wiens
posted by clawsoon at 6:47 PM on October 8, 2019

PPC signs are on EVERY piece of city/public ground in Saskatoon. It's disgusting.
posted by jrochest at 6:53 PM on October 8, 2019

PPC signs are on EVERY piece of city/public ground in Saskatoon. It's disgusting.

You think that's appalling, Winnipeg PPC candidate Steven Fletcher's office is in a building that previously was a perfectly good pornography store I used to work in, and I'm ashamed to see how low it's sunk.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:10 PM on October 8, 2019 [10 favorites]

I take heart in the fact that the PPC is only polling 2%, I kinda hoped it would be a bit more so that Bernier could split the conservative vote and make a few contested ridings go to a more progressive party, but it doesn't look like it'll happen. On the other hand, low support is good news this is really the party of the crazies. Let's hope Bernier doesn't get elected, we'd be rid of him, the rhinos are presenting a 2nd Maxime Bernier in his riding, how awesome is that ;)
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:13 PM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

I can't remember: are party affiliations shown on the ballot in Federal elections or is that only (BC) provincial elections?
posted by Mitheral at 7:14 PM on October 8, 2019

I can't remember: are party affiliations shown on the ballot in Federal elections or is that only (BC) provincial elections?

Yep! Party affiliations are on the federal ballot.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:16 PM on October 8, 2019

Not that I have any chance to vote for or against him, but Blanchet's statement that, "When you're facing a powerful foe like China, you don't try to show biceps if you have only tiny biceps," felt... hmm... not great to me, especially with what's going on in Hong Kong.
posted by clawsoon at 7:25 PM on October 8, 2019

Yes they look like this ...

I believe at the federal level we're still idiots and require an X, instead of any mark in only one of the circle.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:26 PM on October 8, 2019

Actually, any clear mark will suffice: an X is preferred, but a check mark or even a filled-in circle will be counted as long as one and only one of the circles is marked. Source: I am taking a more active role than usual in this year’s election, as I will be a Deputy Returning Officer.

My training was last Saturday, and one of the non-procedural points covered was how on Election Day, we could not wear blue or red or green or orange. I noticed that all of the Elections Canada staffers in the room were in monochrome, in various combinations of grey, white, and black (they are required to dress this way during the election season).

One confided that she was secretly glad that Maxime’s new party (the national socialists or whatever they are called) had gone for red and blue. If they or some future party were to opt for black-and-white, Elections Canada staff would then be limited to yellow and purple for their wardrobe choices for five weeks.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:30 PM on October 8, 2019 [4 favorites]

Thanks for the info Ricochet Biscuit!
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:34 PM on October 8, 2019 [2 favorites]

Sad to see but at least it lets me know where the racists live.

Last Saturday I drove the Niagara Parkway, and was surprised to see the number of PPC signs there. Granted, rich people, and they've got theirs, but are the rich-y types usually that reactionary? Maybe it's a nouveau riche thing, that traditional establishment conservatives aren't so welcoming of people whose last names end in vowels.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:17 PM on October 8, 2019

This is just a PSA that Canadians abroad are now allowed to vote. You just have to be at least 18 and have lived in Canada at some point. There was a Supreme Court case that threw out the old rules. This will be there first time I've voted for anything in 8.5 years!

Holy cats! Thanks. I'm going to let my sister in law in the US know. I don't think she's aware that she can, and according to the info on the Elections Canada site, it looks like she still has time to apply.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:29 PM on October 8, 2019 [1 favorite]

Linking the tweet instead of the paywalled Glob article: Company co-founded by Scheer’s campaign manager receiving Tory and oil group contracts for election ads.

I am shocked that anything with even a faint whiff of corruption and cronyism is part of this campaign. No, wait, what's the opposite of shocked?
posted by nubs at 6:42 AM on October 9, 2019 [1 favorite]

Oof, from Justin Ling - Rumours Of A Suppressed Globe Story About Justin Trudeau Are Bullshit. And bitter old man Warren Kinsella is all over it.
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:49 AM on October 9, 2019 [3 favorites]

I read a random tweet in which a father reported that his 9-year-old son told him to vote for Singh because 'Jagmeet "roasts" people', and it occurred to me that Singh managed to win the toxic masculinity portion of the meta-debate - multiple times getting everybody else to stop talking before dunking on them - while also making a clear feminist statement, saying that "A man has no place in a discussion of a woman's right to choose" before shutting his mouth while May talked. (Nothing else he said has provoked as much sputtering backlash.)
posted by clawsoon at 8:39 AM on October 9, 2019 [1 favorite]

Rumours Of A Suppressed Globe Story About Justin Trudeau Are Bullshit.

Steve Paikin referred to the rumours last night, but he wasn't going to dignify them by repeating them. Having not heard those rumours, I had to start digging. How deep I had to go to find a source for those rumours was enough to convince me of how bullshit they were.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:50 AM on October 9, 2019 [2 favorites]

[Singh] seemed less polished and less comfortable, but I felt like he was actually trying to get something across.

I didn't think he seemed uncomfortable, unless you specifically mean less comfortable than Elizabeth May -- which wouldn't be unreasonable. She has more debate experience than the rest of them combined.

He did seem a bit unpolished, but that's what I like about Singh. Despite a shaky start to his leadership, over the course of this election campaign I've come to see that he's generally at his best when he's speaking a bit off-the-cuff and not trying to stick to the talking points. When he's speaking from the heart, he sounds more genuine than any of the other leaders. He seems the most human of the bunch, which is obviously not the only thing we should be looking for in a leader, but it helps.
posted by asnider at 12:28 PM on October 9, 2019 [1 favorite]

Not sure if this clip was posted yet, but it was pretty awesome: Singh tells Bernier he shouldn’t be welcomed on debate stage. "You don't deserve a platform... your ideas are hurtful to Canada."
posted by clawsoon at 4:09 PM on October 9, 2019 [1 favorite]

asnider: I did mean compared to Elizabeth May, yes.
posted by Fish Sauce at 6:14 AM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

Post-debate polls are out, and they are all over the place. Either the Liberals are in freefall, down to 28% nationally, or they're leaping ahead at 37% nationally. Or maybe the NDP has added 4-5% to get to 18% and the Liberals are static. The margins of error for the Liberals in particular don't overlap, so it'll be interesting to see how the polls shake out over the next few days.

Unifor is telling its members to vote strategically, because pipelines:

"I think Jagmeet Singh is an incredible leader," said Dias. "I've got a lot of time for the NDP. But I also have concerns. I have members that work in Fort McMurray in the oilsands. I have members that build pipelines. I'm a pipeline guy. So many of my members will disagree with the position the NDP has taken on oil and energy."

The official French-language debate goes tonight at 7pm EDT, with translations available in:

posted by clawsoon at 10:06 AM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

For those saying they need to "strategically vote Liberal" to keep Scheer out: here are at least 75 ridings where you should strategic vote NDP, based on results in the past 8 elections, incumbents, returning MPs, etc.
posted by clawsoon at 10:44 AM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

On Monday I saw some PPC signs in front of houses near my kids' school. It was down to one house today. Sad to see but at least it lets me know where the racists live.

Back up to four signs this morning.

On the other hand it was nice to see that someone had knocked down all of the PPC signs that were up at the main intersection.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:18 AM on October 10, 2019

"I think Jagmeet Singh is an incredible leader," said Dias. "I've got a lot of time for the NDP. But I also have concerns. I have members that work in Fort McMurray in the oilsands. I have members that build pipelines. I'm a pipeline guy. "

B-b-but I though Jerry was part of The Resistance!
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:29 AM on October 10, 2019

Anonymous sources in the Conservative party are floating the idea of Peter MacKay as a future leader, should Scheer happen to blow this election. McKay, of course, knows nothing about it and claims to be a good soldier.

So, a leadership challenge within an election campaign. Read into that what you will.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:08 PM on October 10, 2019 [2 favorites]

Anonymous sources in the Conservative party are floating the idea of Peter MacKay as a future leader, should Scheer happen to blow this election. McKay, of course, knows nothing about it and claims to be a good soldier.

I mean, I can smell leadership ambitions on Jason Kenney all the way from Ontario, not to mention the track record the insidious, sulphurous stench of our own dead-eyed premier (he has a track record of wrecking the place and moving on up from municipal to provincial government), so it might not be that easy for MacKay. If things get too hot in Ontario for Ford, I wouldn't rule out a federal leadership bid as that would be on brand for him, although he and Kenney seem to be besties these days.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:18 PM on October 10, 2019

Ford's 'friendship' is about as certain as Trump's, so I'm pretty sure he's whetting the knives as we speak.

The "Justin's Blackface SCANDAL!!" "JUSTIN'S SECRET AFFAIR SCANDAL!!" drumbeats coming from the right make it pretty clear that they've got absolutely nothing substantive to sell.
posted by jrochest at 3:57 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

I don't think any provincial premier has ever gone on to become PM, so it'd be an interesting development in Canadian politics if either of them are able to pull it off.
posted by clawsoon at 3:58 PM on October 10, 2019

Wait, it's not until 8pm? Is that just the English translation, or is the actual debate starting at 8pm, too?
posted by clawsoon at 4:04 PM on October 10, 2019

although he and Kenney seem to be besties these days.

I'm not sure how much I believe it but:
Doug Ford is Mad at Jason Kenney and Andrew Scheer For Making Him Look Like a Bad Premier: Report
posted by Ashwagandha at 4:52 PM on October 10, 2019

Does DoFo need help to look like a bad premier? He's been doing a pretty good job of it all by himself.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 5:02 PM on October 10, 2019 [4 favorites]

The transit tax credit as answer to the question about the cost of living for seniors living alone is a bold strategy.
posted by clawsoon at 5:33 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

The translators are doing a fine job of recreating the cacophony of everyone talking over each other.

"Confrontation à Trois" makes this seem much sexier than it actually is.
posted by clawsoon at 5:43 PM on October 10, 2019

Shoutout to the dude with the Peter Mackay 2020 sign outside the debate.
posted by clawsoon at 5:46 PM on October 10, 2019 [2 favorites]

I welcome the return of Peter Mackay, for the sole reason that it means we get to drag out that picture of him in his backyard, all brokenhearted with his dog.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:01 PM on October 10, 2019 [2 favorites]

Is it just me, or is Blanchet talking a lot more about Canada in the French debate (e.g. something like "Canada needs to be a respected G20 nation" just now), while he talked a lot more about Quebec in the English debate?
posted by clawsoon at 6:19 PM on October 10, 2019

Is that a giant speaking time counter in front of them? Now I keep waiting for them to whack a chess timer each time they finish speaking.
posted by clawsoon at 6:27 PM on October 10, 2019 [2 favorites]

The speaking timer seems to be gone. Maybe they just flashed it up for a minute after Bernier complained that they weren't be fair about speaking time.
posted by clawsoon at 6:34 PM on October 10, 2019

With all this crosstalk I wonder if any of the parties have considered getting Dashan as a party leader?
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:36 PM on October 10, 2019

Why is Rebel Media getting so many (stupid) questions?? I understand that the court decided they get to be there but we're hearing way more from them than anybody else, at least while Trudeau is doing the scrum.
posted by rpfields at 7:31 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

They should force Rebel Media to ask their questions in French.
posted by clawsoon at 7:54 PM on October 10, 2019 [5 favorites]

Singh to Rebel News Network: "I'm not gonna answer your question. Anybody else can ask it. Sorry, not gonna answer your question." [friendly smile]
posted by clawsoon at 8:05 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

Rebel asks the same question of Elizabeth May - something about "how do you have the moral authority to shut down the oilsands if you're not going to win any seats in Alberta?" - and she gives the excellent answer that you'd expect.
posted by clawsoon at 8:20 PM on October 10, 2019

Bernier asked about building a wall on the border - "we need to build a tiny little fence at Roxham Road".
posted by clawsoon at 8:36 PM on October 10, 2019

If I were a journalist I'd be embarrassed to be in the same scrum as Rebel Media.
posted by invokeuse at 10:05 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

I just arrived home after an evening of listening to live music and jamming, and I made the strategic decision to look at this thread first before touching any of the coverage.

My takeaways thus far:

- "MacKay 2020!"

- Rebel is short on French-speaking propagandists.

I will consume the news with that as a frame.

You folks are awesome.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:10 PM on October 10, 2019 [1 favorite]

invokeuse: If I were a journalist I'd be embarrassed to be in the same scrum as Rebel Media.

You're not alone.
posted by clawsoon at 3:23 AM on October 11, 2019 [1 favorite]

It's interesting to compare Singh's actual answer on whether he'd support a minority Liberal government if they went ahead with a pipeline:

"I've been really clear on this. I am very much opposed to this (TMX) project. I've been opposed to it. I'll be opposed to it tomorrow and I'll continue to work against that, for sure," Singh said after the French-language leaders debate on Thursday night when a reporter asked him whether the pipeline would be a condition in any negotiations.

When the reporter followed up, Singh repeated that, "This is something that I'm opposed to, so it's very clearly against what I believe in."

...to the headline: Singh doesn't rule out supporting a pipeline-owning Liberal minority government.
posted by clawsoon at 4:00 AM on October 11, 2019 [1 favorite]

Oh yeah... reminded by the radio this morning: Trudeau said something about allowing Quebec to use a "values test" on immigrants to Quebec.
posted by clawsoon at 5:04 AM on October 11, 2019

Lispop's seat projections.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:22 AM on October 11, 2019

What would be really handy with that Lispop map is a total count (solid/lean) somewhere.
posted by nubs at 8:15 AM on October 11, 2019

Rick Mercer for the Washington Post: Welcome to Canada's Underwhelming Election

So these are the main options before Canadians:

Trudeau, a social progressive who legalized marijuana and loves the gays (if he wasn’t so enthusiastically straight he would marry a dude on principle) and won’t allow anyone to run for his party who does not support a woman’s right to choose. He also wears colorful socks.

Or Scheer, who begrudgingly says he will respect the constitution to protect gays and lesbians under the law but whose faith means he cannot attend a pride picnic. He’s not big on women controlling their own bodies but also goes along with it and says he will protect it because it’s the law. As one conservative insider said, “who knew gray came in so many shades.” ...

...In the end, we were left with irony — the greatest thing both leaders have going for them is that their opponent is underwhelming and not particularly liked.
posted by nubs at 8:45 AM on October 11, 2019 [1 favorite]

The CBC poll tracker's regional breakdown shows a couple of sharp changes over the past few days. In Quebec, the Bloc is rising while Liberals and Conservatives are falling. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the NDP is rising, almost catching up to the Liberals. (They're both still far behind the Conservatives.)

Ontario and Alberta aren't into the whole change-my-mind thing, both staying pretty much static through the entire campaign.
posted by clawsoon at 8:46 AM on October 11, 2019

Conservative insider and PR strategist John Capobianco apologises for the impression that "I do not support my leader, Andrew Scheer- this is totally false."
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:51 AM on October 11, 2019 [1 favorite]

Hah. From that Rick Mercer piece:

This was a new one. Canada’s conservatives have always been comfortable in the closet, but this is the first time one has been outed as a American citizen.

*attempts bad Scottish accent*

"I Kenney believe it!"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:38 AM on October 11, 2019 [3 favorites]

Well played, mandolin conspiracy.
posted by nubs at 10:01 AM on October 11, 2019 [2 favorites]

It's almost as if Trudeau's blackface raised people's opinion of Singh. Like... if we're going to have a guy in a turban, might as well get the real thing.
posted by clawsoon at 3:34 PM on October 11, 2019

What would be really handy with that Lispop map is a total count (solid/lean) somewhere.

Here you go. For what it's worth, which is IMO limited. As an avid consumer and analyzer of election models (don't get me started) I really wished someone had the resources and skill to do a proper state-of-practice (MRP) election projection for Canada, but I guess we aren't on YouGov's radar yet.

Got to tell the smiling young Conservative campaigners on the walk on the way in to work to go to hell, much to my wife's mortification.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:04 PM on October 11, 2019

Federal leaders' job approval ratings. Jagmeet is rising following the debates. Trudeau remains steady -- the whole blackface thing seems to have had no effect on people's opinion of him, which seems... noteworthy.

I was just looking at a set of Ipsos polls (link at the bottom here) from throughout September. When asked who the best PM would be, 85% of Liberal and Conservative supporters picked their own leader (and like 3% the opposite party's). Only 62% of NDPers picked Singh, 14% Trudeau, 12% May, 8%(!) Scheer. Bloc voters picked Blanchet 39%, and split Trudeau/Scheer 21%/19%.

When asked about likelihood of voting, 83% of Conservative supporters gave themselves a 9 or 10 out of 10; 78% of Liberals, Greens and Bloc and 72% of NDPers. I think this tracks in part the underlying demographics, particularly age. 85% of 55+ gave themselves a 9 or 10, while only 54% of 18-34 year olds did.

So I guess what I'm saying is that the one guy who really needed to gin up enthusiasm was Singh; hopefully that can translate into turnout.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:17 PM on October 11, 2019

More polls where the Liberal results are outside each other's margins of error and different enough to make a huge difference in seat counts: 29%, 29%; 35%, 35%.

There's a reasonable chance that Conservatives will get the most seats. The CBC poll tracker's seat projections have Liberals and Conservatives virtually tied at 139-137 with about a +/-50 seat margin of error for both of them.

What are the parties' positions on coalitions, again?
posted by clawsoon at 4:49 PM on October 11, 2019

The drop in Liberal seat projections, FWIW, is mostly due to the rise of the Bloc.
posted by clawsoon at 4:57 PM on October 11, 2019

I'm really hoping the dips and lifts in the projections are a couple of days behind the times -- because I don't dislike the Libs, no matter now imperfect they may be, and I'm pretty sure we'd be a second Ukraine if the Cons get in.

Love the NDP, and am always happy to be able to vote for them -- which I probably will, as my riding will go Conservative no matter what. But if it's a straight choice between red and blue, how the hell could the country be thinking of going blue?
posted by jrochest at 8:04 PM on October 11, 2019

But if it's a straight choice between red and blue, how the hell could the country be thinking of going blue?

The Conservatives are down a couple of seats in the projections, too, it's just that the Liberals are down a lot because of the Bloc's rise in Quebec. CBC Radio's "The House" has an episode this week on the battle for votes in Quebec that's a decent listen. It talks to supporters of various parties in various battleground ridings.

From what I'm reading and hearing, this election seems to be about a split between progressives inside and outside Quebec around Bill 21. If you're voting against climate change and for women's and LGBTQ rights outside Quebec, you'll vote NDP/Green/Liberal. Inside Quebec, though, it seems like there are a lot of people in that group who really, really don't like to see niqabs and hijabs, who see them as being against women's rights. It's only the BQ who have that combination of values: Against pipelines, against climate change, for women's rights, for LGBTQ rights, against niqabs and hijabs.
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 AM on October 12, 2019

Conservative insider and PR strategist John Capobianco apologises for the impression that "I do not support my leader, Andrew Scheer- this is totally false."

"Please ignore the whirring of the grindstone behind me. But please stand back, so the sparks from the knives don't catch your clothes on fire."
posted by bonehead at 7:58 AM on October 12, 2019 [1 favorite]

Here you go. For what it's worth, which is IMO limited.

Thanks - I know seat projections in Canada are not well modeled, I just figure if you are going to show a map with seat projections, including a seat count is nice as well.

I early voted yesterday as I'm flying to Moncton on the 21st. It's the first time in about forever that I looked at the ballot without a clear choice in mind; I spent a moment puzzling out that the "ML" party affiliation for one of the candidates stood for Marxist-Leninist (a brave choice in deep blue Calgary), and then I cast my little protest vote not in favour of either of the front running parties.

Pretty steady turnout while I was there.
posted by nubs at 8:21 AM on October 12, 2019 [1 favorite]

Quirks and Quarks hosted a science and environmental debate between representatives of four of the parties. No live audience, just radio. Partial transcript available at the link.
posted by clawsoon at 9:23 AM on October 12, 2019

Via Twitter.

John Ivison who apparently never heard of the Panama Papers:

New Democrats also claim they will raise $5.8B by cracking down on tax havens. Is there really that much money out there that the CRA has said: "Meh, can't bothered..."?

The response:

According to CBC, there’s “between $75.9 billion and $240.5 billion in hidden assets, as of 2013, representing potential federal tax revenues of between $800 million and $3 billion...”

That stat took me exactly 4 seconds to Google.

While anyone can be a journalist, it must be noted that all vocations, even ones thought of as noble, feature a percentage of practitioners who are shit and/or simply aren’t trying very hard.

That 4 second thing’s no shit either. I clicked the stopwatch I use for physio, then typed “how much canadian money in offshore accounts” into Google. The failure in my journalism was in not taking a pic of the stopwatch.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:47 PM on October 12, 2019 [4 favorites]

Ivison is getting hammered in the responses. Heh.

"Hey man just wondering if you've ever thought about finding out things about this country before posting about them? Idk it's worked for me and I think it would help you a lot at your job. Anyway enjoy your long weekend. Happy Turkey Day!"

"Is this a note-to-self to follow up on later? Are you asking for help from a journalist?"

"Don't you think it's about time for a mea culpa on this? A little "Sorry, I was wrong" would go a long way."

"Yes. Do your job."

...etc.
posted by clawsoon at 2:48 PM on October 12, 2019 [1 favorite]

Lol... "Thanks! I’ve never paid attention to your writing but your tweets over last couple days confirm for me I don’t have to. Convenient!"
posted by clawsoon at 2:49 PM on October 12, 2019

Ivison is getting hammered in the responses.

There are drag marks you can follow from Gander, up to Alert, and on down over to Victoria.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:43 PM on October 12, 2019

I voted today! Didn't want to deal with the lines on the 21st.

Also I liked this infographic/breakdown of the French debate on Thursday night: who talked, and for how long, who attacked whom, and who supported whom.
posted by invokeuse at 4:13 PM on October 12, 2019 [2 favorites]

"Is this a note-to-self to follow up on later? Are you asking for help from a journalist?"

I actually LOLed at this one. He does deserve it, though.
posted by rpfields at 5:13 PM on October 12, 2019

Shannon Proudfoot has a pretty good essay on the "middle class" and Canadian politics in Macleans.

Class is everywhere in this election, invoked seemingly every time someone wants to put a sympathetic face on a policy proposal or make a point about being in touch with ordinary Canadians.

There’s the “middle class” that’s constantly prioritized, flattered and fetishized by every campaign and candidate; critiques of people who come from such a privileged class they can’t possibly understand the concerns of normal people; sometimes bizarre pitches aimed at those who want a better future for their kids and just need a boost (camping, anyone?); and leaders who come from hardscrabble backgrounds—except that maybe they don’t quite.

But if class is an ever-present anthem running through campaign 2019, it’s a tune no one seems to know the proper words to, or they’re deliberately mumbling nonsense lyrics and assuming no one else will notice.

posted by clawsoon at 7:02 PM on October 12, 2019 [1 favorite]

Conservatives running Facebook ads falsely accusing Liberals of planning to legalize hard drugs on Chinese-language page
posted by clawsoon at 8:57 PM on October 12, 2019

I've finally gotten around to watching one of CBC's Face To Face episodes. It's pretty good so far; better than the debates in some ways.

Jagmeet Singh, being challenged on how he'd deal with Trump after saying that Trump should be impeached:

In my experience when you've got someone who's a bully and does a lot of bullying tactics, they certainly don't respect you if you're weak. They certainly don't respect you if you don't stand up to them. My only experience in life is that if you've got a bully you've got to stand up to them, and that's what I'd do.

posted by clawsoon at 6:35 PM on October 13, 2019

Singh says NDP would try to form coalition to stop Scheer's Conservatives

That'd be a nice change when compared to the way that Harper was able to paralyze progressive opposition to his minority government by spitting out the word "coalition" like it was the most un-Canadian thing you could imagine.
posted by clawsoon at 9:24 PM on October 13, 2019 [1 favorite]

Our advance poll was open today, so we took advantage of the holiday Monday to vote. We were in and out in under 10 minutes, plus it was a nice day for a slightly nippy but very sunny fall walk.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:24 PM on October 14, 2019 [2 favorites]

Harry Potter Election Signs Have Magically Appeared In An Ontario Riding
posted by clawsoon at 1:40 PM on October 14, 2019

Man waking from four-year coma excited to vote in proportional representation election
posted by clawsoon at 5:01 PM on October 14, 2019 [3 favorites]

I did the advance poll yesterday, for no reason other than to get it out of the way. Fairly busy, but lines were moving, and it was about a 10 minute turnaround.

I'll vote again on Monday, just to be sure.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:01 AM on October 15, 2019 [1 favorite]

Jagmeet Singh posted a pic on FB of himself with Uncle Tetsu. As in, Uncle Tetsu the cheesecake place. I was astounded to learn that Uncle Tetsu is a real guy, and not corporate cartoon mythology.

So, Jagmeet is chums with actual man Uncle Tetsu. Uncle Tetsu gave him a cheesecake. This is an impressive endorsement in my book.
posted by Capt. Renault at 12:11 PM on October 15, 2019 [3 favorites]

Squinting at the CBC poll tracker trends over time, it looks like increased NDP and Bloc support isn't gaining the Conservatives any seats. They're actually down a couple of seats compared to pre-debate, pre-NDP+Bloc rise. The models could well be wrong, but so far it doesn't look like vote splitting is having any more effect than usual. More NDP and Bloc support is leading to more NDP and Bloc seats, not to more Conservative seats.
posted by clawsoon at 12:18 PM on October 15, 2019

Yes, that's what has been going around. With all the fear of vote splitting with the NDP and the Greens, it might not be the Liberals losing that ground. Which is interesting. After the release of the Tory platform on Friday I can't be the only Ontarian looking hopefully at the polls. Having endured the continuing cuts in Ontario I can't imagine under going further service cuts from a federal government led by the Conservatives.
posted by Ashwagandha at 3:54 PM on October 15, 2019 [1 favorite]

The people doing projections are also pointing out that their ranges of possible outcomes for Liberals and Conservatives are ridiculously wide. 338 gives the Liberals a 77-192 seat range and the Conservatives an 86-185 seat range. CBC has 86-190 for the Liberals and 89-178 for the Conservatives. This could be squeaky tight or it could be a solid majority for either party.

There was a discussion here on Metafilter a little while back in which someone suggested that random outcomes are sometimes better than considered choices, and that's why things like oracle bones and drawing of straws have been so popular for making important decisions in so many societies. Maybe that's the real value of first-past-the-post: It adds a roll of the dice to the choosing of our government. It's the crack in our oracle bone.
posted by clawsoon at 4:09 PM on October 15, 2019 [1 favorite]

I don't if it is making much news in the regular news streams (which is a bit irritating) but there was an item on online election manipulation via Twitter last night on As it Happened. It is the usual suspects of course - a link to a Thread Reader version of the researcher's tweets on the subject.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:02 AM on October 16, 2019 [1 favorite]

For some reason Obama felt the need to endorse Trudeau. Ugh.

I meant to vote this weekend but just couldn't face actually leaving the house so guess it will be lineups for me on Monday.
posted by jeather at 12:32 PM on October 16, 2019

For some reason Obama felt the need to endorse Trudeau.

Matthew Yglesias: "Probably Trudeau should be trying to figure out how to bait Trump into endorsing Scheer."
posted by JackFlash at 6:14 PM on October 16, 2019 [1 favorite]

Looks like the polls are settling down, and the NDP and Bloc together picked up about 7 points at the expense of the Liberals, Conservatives, and Greens.
posted by clawsoon at 4:11 PM on October 17, 2019

Trudeau’s incredibly close election battle—in 1972

Let me pause here to say this is usually the point where a diligent journalist, having revelled in some convenient historical analogy, brings in the voice of a more sober professional historian to show why any superficial similarities matter far less than the deeper ways that past and present simply refuse to line up so neatly.

And, following proper practice, I indeed called up John English, director of the Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History at University of Toronto’s Monk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, and author of a magisterial two-volume Pierre Trudeau biography, to set me straight.

But English instead repeatedly pointed out parallels between 1972 and 2019 that hadn’t even dawned on me.

posted by clawsoon at 12:54 PM on October 18, 2019

What will surely be the last skullduggery story before the election: Kinsella consulting firm worked to 'seek and destroy' Bernier's PPC party.
posted by clawsoon at 6:05 AM on October 19, 2019 [2 favorites]

Kinsella, man. He's just soooo punk rock.

*rolls eyes*

The latest episode of Canadaland's OPPO was pretty good. It was refreshingly Jen Gerson-free, and was a discussion with Ryan McMahon and Karyn Pugliese on their persepective, as Indigenous people, on the various party platforms:

We Haven’t Gotten To Truth Yet

And this, from the Yellowhead Institute, is a good read:

Election 2019: Which Party will Return the Land?

This Brief represents an overview of each of the major federal parties, as well as their commitments to issues of land restitution, and a more general breakdown of investments (or lack thereof) to Indigenous communities.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:32 AM on October 19, 2019

Nearly Everything About Canada's Federal Election Sucked:

There are no lack of problems facing this country. The opioid crisis is still killing thousands every year. The incarceration rate for Indigenous and Black people continues to rise at a disproportionate rate. The federal debt is growing and becoming more costly. Climate change is going to wreck the planet. A recession may be around the corner and we are not ready. Urban centres across the country are unaffordable. We actually lost Prince Edward Island back in July and haven’t been able to find it.

So there’s no lack of issues to worry about.

What did we hear about instead?

Scheer repeated ad nauseum that he has no intentions of bringing in new restrictions on abortion access nor would he claw back rights for LGBTQ people. And yet, that question consumed an incredible amount of oxygen on the campaign. Questions to the other leaders on how to actually improve abortion access were few and far between.

Elizabeth May got caught photoshopping out a plastic cup from one of her campaign photos, which was dumb. But, naturally, the snafu spawned a lot of coverage suggesting that the Green Party isn’t so green after all because it touched plastic. A real aha! moment. Even before we replace single use plastics with viable alternatives, I suppose, every environmentalist ought to drink straight from a watering hole like a buffalo.

Jagmeet Singh got accosted several times on the campaign trail by racist nutters, only to get asked in a media scrum to condemn “Khalistani extremism” (for the thousandth time).

Then there were the Elysian Fields of fallen candidates, snuffed because their old social media posts were deemed too inappropriate and their chances of winning too slim.

A Green candidate, who had zero chance of winning and even less of a chance of ever having a say on Canada’s abortion laws, was fired after the party discovered she was a member of this upstart Catholic Church that’s been getting some real buzz. The NDP turfed one of theirs because he used some pretty rough-and-tumble language in a Twitter spat about pipelines. The Liberals jettisoned a Montreal candidate over some past anti-Semitic comments, which he apologized profusely for with a vow to work with the Jewish community; but another candidate in Cape Breton will be sticking around despite his own racist and sexist social media posts because, as Trudeau pointed out, he apologized. So figure that one out.

These stupid sideshows aren’t novel. They’re just part of the campaign now.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:44 AM on October 19, 2019

Justin Ling on Twitter this morning:

I'm at a hotel ballroom in North York where Andrew Scheer is, flanked by candidates, addressing the media.

[...]

"We don't make comments on vendors that our party does or does not hire," Scheer says. And then repeats it three times.

Ok he's now said it like 8 times in both languages. Asked specifically whether this is a lack of transparency, he just repeats the same line.

*Brutal.*

"Why the secrecy about this?"
"As a general rule, when it comes to party matters, we don't comment."
"Why?"
"As a general rule...."

This is rather surreal.

I asked Scheer whether he had any hand in working with Kinsella to spread rumours around Trudeau's time at West Point Grey Academy. "I've been very clear-" he starts, before refusing to answer the question.

[...]

You can watch the whole scrum here.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:55 AM on October 19, 2019

That scrum is brutal. Scheer is remarkably bad at campaigning, it is incredible really. This whole campaign though has been an absolute mess.
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:38 PM on October 19, 2019 [1 favorite]

Trudeau is as lucky to have Scheer as his father was to have Stanfield.
posted by clawsoon at 1:31 PM on October 19, 2019 [2 favorites]

You can watch the whole scrum here.

Oh no! Andrew Scheer has been replaced by the "Sarah from the Conservative Party" robot!
posted by clawsoon at 1:58 PM on October 19, 2019

Page 9 of this poll has some 2nd choice numbers. Conservatives are more likely to choose the NDP as their second choice (19%) than they are to choose the Liberals (13%).
posted by clawsoon at 2:24 PM on October 19, 2019

Scheer repeated ad nauseum that he has no intentions of bringing in new restrictions on abortion access nor would he claw back rights for LGBTQ people. And yet, that question consumed an incredible amount of oxygen on the campaign.

No one on either side believes him. Non conservatives (minus the neo nazi party) want him to admit to plans as a way to score points and conservatives want to get him on the record to energize their base and leverage him with if he becomes PM.
posted by Mitheral at 4:43 PM on October 19, 2019 [1 favorite]

The CBC is saying that Trudeau spent his day refusing to answer questions about electoral reform. I'd look up a clip of that, but I'm not sure I can handle two robots in one day.
posted by clawsoon at 6:10 PM on October 19, 2019

Trudeau is as lucky to have Scheer as his father was to have Stanfield.

Gonna need some popcorn for this...

Bernier files complaint to elections watchdog over 'secret' campaign to smear his party: Warren Kinsella says work targeting People's Party of Canada 'ended months ago' and was not inappropriate

Reporter: "Is it true you were born with a horseshoe up your ass?"

JT: "Just watch me."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:06 PM on October 19, 2019

Bernier said the party will retain legal advice and will use all tools at its disposal to get answers on the Conservative Party of Canada's potential role in that campaign. He also wants answers on who was behind the entry of a Rhinoceros Party candidate in his Beauce, Que., riding who has the same name as him.

Meh.

That man and whoever sent him to Beauce deserve the Order of Canada.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:08 PM on October 19, 2019 [1 favorite]

What's hilarious is Bernier thinks the Rhino's need any sort of impetus to engage in this sort of tom foolery. He sees the election that his party has no chance of winning as Very Serious Business so of course there has to be some deep state under handed conspiracy shenanigans behind this move but the Rhinos just want to have a chance to laugh over a beer at the fuming.
posted by Mitheral at 10:47 PM on October 19, 2019 [1 favorite]

It was refreshingly Jen Gerson-free

I think she's on mat leave, so 1)Huge congrats to the Gerson family and 2) I hope she's eligible to be gone an entire year.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 8:47 AM on October 20, 2019 [3 favorites]

Speaking of the Rhinoceros Party, I have the democratic gift in my riding of having to choose between them and the Animal Rights Party - who presumably want to protect the rhinoceros - as well as between the fiercely opposed Communist Party and Marxist-Leninist Party. However, I don't know why you'd choose any of those over former WWE star(?) Jason "The Sensation" Tavares.

No PPC, though. Too bad they weren't convinced to waste some resources here.
posted by clawsoon at 8:51 AM on October 20, 2019 [1 favorite]

However, I don't know why you'd choose any of those over former WWE star(?) Jason "The Sensation" Tavares.

Same riding here. I was kind of wondering why that name rang a bell when I was looking at my ballot.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:15 PM on October 20, 2019

My great hope is that Rhino Party Bernier's votes total the exact number of votes by which (White) People's Party Bernier loses.
That would be sweet.
posted by chapps at 4:26 PM on October 20, 2019 [2 favorites]

And are we sure Kinella isnt a doubke agent? His work for scheer sure seems to help trudeau. His work for the greens also seeks to help everyone but!
posted by chapps at 4:27 PM on October 20, 2019

I was kind of wondering why that name rang a bell when I was looking at my ballot.

I finally figured out that it was because of Maple Leafs captain John Tavares, who is not a candidate so far as I know.
posted by clawsoon at 5:05 PM on October 20, 2019

If he's able to lead the Leafs to the Stanley Cup, though, I'm pretty sure he could be elected Prime Minister of Toronto immediately thereafter.
posted by clawsoon at 5:06 PM on October 20, 2019

I was kind of wondering why that name rang a bell

Here in Hamilton, I was seeing Liberal signs for Bruno Uggenti, and couldn't remember how I knew that name. Of course, if I'd simply googled, I'd have remembered that he was the lawyer who sued the City for $900K over a toboggan injury, prompting the City put in a tobogganing ban, and making us a national laughingstock. He's THAT guy.

He didn't get the Liberal nomination last time around.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:05 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Got to tell the smiling young Conservative campaigners on the walk on the way in to work to go to hell, much to my wife's mortification.

Two weeks ago I got off the GO train: tired, hungry, sweaty, carrying something unwieldy in both hands and ready to go home. My wife was picking me up at the station, and she noticed a mouselike man (approx 44% of my size) handing out PPC literature on the platform. She thought to herself, “Boy, I sure hope he does t accost my husband.”

Briefly, he did approach me to give me some literature. Without breaking stride, I said, “Off you fuck, you tedious racist twat.” He responded with what he hoped was
casual water-off-a-duck’s-back laughter. It was not.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:35 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Voters send clear message of “ugh, fine, Trudeau again, I guess”

Andrew Scheer frantically asks for do-over after accidentally voting for Trudeau
posted by bonehead at 10:31 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Oh... uh... election thread...
posted by clawsoon at 4:50 PM on October 22, 2019

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