Polls across Canada are open for the 43rd general election

October 21, 2019 7:00 AM

As of 7am Pacific Time, polls are open across Canada for what looks to be one of the closest and least predictable elections in Canadian history, one which, unlike many previous elections, probably won't be decided until the last votes are cast on the west coast. This is as good a time as any to remember that day in 1849 when elite mobs burned down Parliament but were peaceably defeated by the first government in the British Empire to be responsible to a democratically elected Parliament.

In 1848, Canada created the first government in the whole of the British Empire which was responsible to the democratically elected parliamentary majority. The next year, elites formed a mob, burned down Parliament, and attempted to violently overthrow that government, which they saw as a threat to their elite power. The same thing was happening at the same time across Europe during the revolutionary and counter-revolutionary years of 1848-49.

What happened next in Canada was different, though: Instead of ordering the troops to fire on the mob, and instead of giving in to the mob - one or both of which happened in virtually every European country - the government of LaFontaine and Baldwin managed to defeat the mob and preserve democracy without violence. "At key historic moments, every society burns into its unconscious the outline of patterns for agreement and disagreement. The spring of 1849 was the defining moment for modern Canada."

You can read more in the most awkwardly-titled but most interesting Extraordinary Canadians: Louis Hippolyte Lafontaine and Robert Baldwin.

Or you can talk about what's happening 170 years later, in the system of peacefully working out our differences that LaFontaine and Baldwin helped bring into being.

posted by clawsoon (384 comments total)

voted just after the doors opened at Corvette Junior PS. It was ms scruss's first time voting in a federal election as a Canadian!
posted by scruss at 7:23 AM on October 21, 2019 [22 favorites]

I did my part at an advance poll - I'm in a deeply "safe" Liberal district in a deeply safe Liberal province, so my vote was largely symbolic - but symbols matter!
posted by Paladin1138 at 7:25 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Good luck Canada.
posted by sotonohito at 7:27 AM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

government in the British Empire to be responsible to a democratically elected Parliament

Responsible government?!?
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:31 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

I vote in my building so I will do the thing right after work...I am also in a deeply Liberal riding with an MP who has done good work, but symbols DO matter!
posted by wellred at 7:31 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Voted, about a 30 minute wait at the 945am mark at my polling station (polls opened here at 930am).
posted by devonia at 7:34 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Also of note this election, per the Elections Canada site, "According to the preliminary figures, some 4,700,000 electors voted at the advance polls in this general election. This is a 29% increase from the 3,657,415 electors who voted in advance in the 2015 general election"
posted by devonia at 7:37 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

I voted on Thanksgiving, just to get it out of the way. Steady lines which moved fast.

I'm in a traditional NDP riding where the longtime MP is retiring. Both the Dippers and Grits paid a lot of attention to us this time around.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:40 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

PR here thanking you all for voting! Looking forward to that moment one day. :)
posted by lesbiassparrow at 7:50 AM on October 21, 2019 [8 favorites]

Anyone got some seat projections?
posted by No Robots at 7:50 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I meant to bring my voter card with me to work so I could vote on my way home but I forgot and now I am going to have to go all the way up to my apartment and then all the way back down to the lobby of my building in order to vote. That's like 6 floors worth of elevatoring.

So inconvenient.
posted by jacquilynne at 7:52 AM on October 21, 2019 [9 favorites]

Best of luck, Canada, here’s hoping you manage to go for “sane” as the rest of the world seems to be going for “batshit insane” with a side of “authoritarian nightmare.”
posted by Ghidorah at 7:53 AM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

Voted last week in the early election.
posted by Fizz at 7:56 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Seat projections from LISPOP.

I find them more dependable than Eric Grenier, who always ends up wrong and then blames the polling. Not that we have great polling, but LISPOP seems to do a better job of it.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:00 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Anyone got some seat projections?

The CBC Poll Tracker is guessing:

Liberals: 137 seats, confidence range 94-193 seats
Conservatives: 124, confidence range 80-168 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 39, confidence range 21-51 seats
NDP: 35, confidence range 15-63 seats
Greens: 1, confidence range 1-6 seats
PPC: 1, confidence range 0-1 seats

338 Canada has a map of where the contested races are.
posted by clawsoon at 8:01 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Voted, and quickly -- there was a queue for folks who didn't bring their voter card, but we were prepared! A thoroughly depressing vote; here in Calgary Centre, the Conservative is quite likely to win, but there is an incumbent Liberal so there's a faint hope. Unfortunately, he's a bad candidate, so the choice was between doing everything I can to stop the Conservatives despite having to vote for a disappointing local candidate running for a disappointing party with a disappointing leader, or voting for someone who is a better candidate, better party, better leader but not going to win and thus handing net 1 vote to the Conservatives. (In the end, I decided that if the better parties would not campaign, I couldn't vote for them -- literally the first external evidence I saw that there was an NDP candidate in my riding was seeing the party's name on the ballot paper; I did see one Green party sign in a ditch somewhere, making them the 5th most visible party after Christian Heritage.)

Gosh, I wish 2015 was the last election under the first-past-the-post system.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 8:02 AM on October 21, 2019 [12 favorites]

Thanks for the projections. Looks like Singh is gonna be the man.
posted by No Robots at 8:07 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

From a previous thread: At least 75 ridings where you should strategic vote NDP, based on results in the past 8 elections, incumbents, returning MPs, etc.
posted by clawsoon at 8:07 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

one of the closest and least predictable elections

If only there were something that could have been done to bring about some sort of reform to the electoral process to more accurately reflect the wishes of the populace.

Anyway, I'm voting later today. I don't think the CPC has a shot here, but let's not take any chances, hey? Notably they were only party who came to my door. The local candidate and I had a polite, curt chat about the importance of voting today.
posted by ODiV at 8:07 AM on October 21, 2019 [11 favorites]

jaquilynne, you don’t need your voter card - drivers licence is enough.

I’m working to polls and they are busy, even in my rural village. At least a third of electors are marked as having voted advance polls. This is the tightest election I can remeber.

CBC will be live streaming
posted by saucysault at 8:10 AM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

I was surprised to learn that the most populous riding in Canada is the rural Alberta riding I grew up in - now not so rural. I remember when we used to argue that of course rural ridings should have less people, that it was only fair for some reason or another that I forget now.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I was driving through Cambridge this weekend, and saw plenty of signs for some NDP hippie longhair, whose campaign slogan was "Let's All Be Good to One Another". I wanted to switch ridings just to vote for him. Upon examination, the hippie longhair is a Totally Serious Guy With An Impressive Resume. Then I reeeeeally wanted to vote for Dr. Hippie Longhair.

But: Cambridge. Dude doesn't stand a chance.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:16 AM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

I meant to bring my voter card with me to work so I could vote on my way home but I forgot and now I am going to have to go all the way up to my apartment and then all the way back down to the lobby of my building in order to vote. That's like 6 floors worth of elevatoring.

Good news! You don’t need your voter card. Just your ID. Save yourself the elevating.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:24 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

jaquilynne, you don’t need your voter card - drivers licence is enough.

I know. I was just being dramatic about the TERRIBLE INCONVENIENCE of the polling station being all the way downstairs in my lobby.

Had a funny conversation in the elevator this morning. A neighbour and I got on at the same time and I requested she push the P button for me. "You can go out in the lobby, you know," she said. And I was like "Uh..." And she was like, "Since you're new here, I thought you might not know." And I'm thinking "Yes, I did know there are doors in the lobby -- because I'm new here but I've been in literally any building ever before?" And fortunately I didn't say that out loud, because then she said something else that clarified that she had said "vote" not "go out" and I had just misheard her.
posted by jacquilynne at 8:25 AM on October 21, 2019 [14 favorites]

Now we wait and see if Trudeau likes power more than he likes his legacy of pipelines and corporate indulgence.
posted by Reyturner at 8:32 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

So, I voted (yay!) but I am very sad. Look, I don't care what party you vote for, as long as you vote... but actually, I do care...

Climate Change is the single most important issue on the global agenda, and there is only one party who's big election promise is that on its first day in office it will do away with the only meaningful piece of climate action legislation active at the Federal level.

The fact that this party is neck and neck for the lead and may well form the next government is mildly freaking me out (to say the least). If this is what Greta Thunberg's activism and all of the climate marches in Canada leads to, then what is the point of activism at all? *sigh* Wake me up when it's all over.
posted by Vindaloo at 8:35 AM on October 21, 2019 [8 favorites]

Good luck Canada

God keep your land glorious and free
posted by otherchaz at 8:39 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

One of my favourite details about the 1849 story is how Governor General Elgin didn't fix his carriage after the rich assholes who were trying to destroy democracy stoned it. Instead, he used it for state openings of Parliament, unrepaired, to remind them of what assholes they'd been.

I'm hoping he passive-aggressively apologized for his carriage's state of repair when he brought it out.
posted by clawsoon at 8:41 AM on October 21, 2019 [14 favorites]

If only there were something that could have been done to bring about some sort of reform to the electoral process to more accurately reflect the wishes of the populace.

It's true that electoral reform was pretty much the first promise that Trudeau's Libs reneged on after their 2015 victory. What's frustrating is how little we've heard of their rationale.

Simply put, the electoral reform the Libs were in favour of was Single Transferable Vote (STV), whereas the rival parties wanted either no change (the Conservatives) or Proportional Representation (everybody else). And why do the Liberals want STV?

A. because it's reasonably simple* (ie: easy to explain to a reasonably smart ten year old) and, B. because, deep down inside, they know that they're the second (if not first) choice of most Canadians (ie: they'd win every election for the foreseeable future)

So they canned it rather then spend the foreseeable future failing to come to any kind of consensus with everybody else. And yes, Trudeau did pretty much say this in as many words. And no, I'm not an apologist. I didn't vote for the guy, and won't this time either.

* I get the appeal of Proportional Representation which, certainly on the surface, sounds like the fairest system. But good luck explaining it to people. Good luck explaining it to me. The reason it keeps failing to get support in my province (BC) is not entirely because the big conservative money gets behind the status quo. It's just too bloody complicated. For Canadians -- even reasonably smart ones. Because it seems to work elsewhere. I guess we're just too exhausted after long days spent hewing wood and drawing water for our brains to compute democratic complexity.
posted by philip-random at 8:42 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

We saw Lady Elgin's infamous "Riot Rocks" on display at The Canadian Museum of History in Ottawa/Gatineau (from the National Archives since the Macleans article was printed). The museum itself is quite fascinating. Highly recommended.

(It's true, we were never taught anything about this in history class. Maybe it was too conceptual.)
posted by ovvl at 8:45 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

I heard a discussion on CBC last week that this is the bubble election - where the true realities of the climate crisis, shifts in world leadership in the US, China, and Russia, the impact of massive global tech company dominance, etc. just haven't appeared on the radar at all and instead we're still talking about generally the same Canadian issues as the last time. That really hit me and I've been following the last of the coverage with a kind of nostalgic feeling like...soon the zombie apocalypse will be here and all this will seem like a dream time before waking.

Anyways, on that cheery note, the amount of Canadian history I was not taught in school while also being on endless repeat with a few things (Voyageurs/Louis Riel/Confederation/WW I) is staggering...not just on the indigenous side but things like Africville.
posted by warriorqueen at 8:50 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Climate Change is the single most important issue on the global agenda, and there is only one party who's big election promise is that on its first day in office it will do away with the only meaningful piece of climate action legislation active at the Federal level.

Sadly, the Conservatives have always been like this - they've always ignored climate change.

The Green Party is the only party with a policy that matches the latest scientific consensus, but I don't think they would be able to work with the provinces on areas that are part of provincial jurisdiction (such as electricity grids). Besides, I'm pretty sure that Jason Kenney would just tell Elizabeth May to get lost when they ever met - and I'm even more sure that Doug Ford would tell her to fuck off.

My preferred solution would be a Liberal minority with the balance of power held by a party that is more serious about climate change. The Liberals would be most likely to be able to work with the provinces to get something done, and a more progressive party would hold their feet to the fire on climate change. (Of course, the Liberals won't be able to get Ford to do anything either - he has steadfastly refused infrastructure money from the federal government for partisan political reasons. Sigh.)
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 8:55 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

philip-random: because, deep down inside, they know that they're the second (if not first) choice of most Canadians (ie: they'd win every election for the foreseeable future)

Buried deep in this poll are a bunch of second-choice numbers.

Conservative voters' second choices are NDP (19%), People's Party (15%), and only then the Liberals (13%).

NDP voters' seconds choices are Liberals (34%), Greens (30%), and, well back, Conservatives (13%).

Green voters' seconds choices are NDP (30%), Liberal (20%), and then PPC and Conservative at 10% each.

Liberal voters' second choices are NDP (42%), Green (15%), and Conservative (13%).

Overall, the second choice of voters is the NDP (25%) followed by the Greens (15%). The Liberals only get 13%, just ahead of the Conservatives at 10%.

I'd be curious to know if anybody has crunched the numbers on how second-choice preferences would play out in a ranked election. Based on these numbers, it feels like it might be surprising.
posted by clawsoon at 8:55 AM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

I get the appeal of Proportional Representation which, certainly on the surface, sounds like the fairest system.

I'm big on PR, PR is my cause. If the polling numbers hold, I expect it will renew the push for electoral reform -- if the Greens and Bloc have roughly the same popular support, and the one gets one seat and the latter gets forty and a chance at effective power, that can only highlight how unfair the current system is. Maybe that leads to serious questions this time as to how we can do things in a more just and reflective way. Maybe.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:56 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

That really hit me and I've been following the last of the coverage with a kind of nostalgic feeling like...soon the zombie apocalypse will be here and all this will seem like a dream time before waking.

I know this feeling all too well. I'm pushing 60 now, and I find it very difficult to have any optimism at all. I fear a future of heat and fascism. My only hope is that the rate of awareness of the importance of climate change increases faster than the effects of it.

It isn't helping that many western provinces have already had significant snowstorms in October, which tends to reduce people's concerns about global warming. Talk about a tough midterm exam for Canada and for humanity in general...
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 8:59 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

You can at least be thankful that Scheer turned out to be such a dud. Given SNC-Lavalin and the brownface pictures, a Diefenbaker or Mulroney would've hit this election out of the park for the Conservatives.
posted by clawsoon at 9:03 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

...and imagine where we'd be if Bernier had gotten half a percentage point more votes in the Conservative leadership race...
posted by clawsoon at 9:07 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Gosh, I wish 2015 was the last election under the first-past-the-post system.

The Trudeau Liberals promised it would be.

Apart from that, I'd just like to say this to my fellow electors: good luck, we're all counting on you.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:12 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Bernier would have had the same policies (or lack thereof) as Scheer.

Now whether pretending to be a Nazi makes you a Nazi is another question entirely.
posted by Yowser at 9:15 AM on October 21, 2019

The word "electors" gives me a funny little brain tingle, since I usually encounter it when one of the electors of the Holy Roman Empire pops up in a history I'm reading.
posted by clawsoon at 9:16 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

From a previous thread: At least 75 ridings where you should strategic vote NDP, based on results in the past 8 elections, incumbents, returning MPs, etc.

For a value of "strategic" that includes Liberal/Conservative marginal ridings where the NDP finished a distant third last time and ridings where the guy who tweeted out that list deems the NDP's chances as "unlikely". It's like saying that the "strategic" opening moves in tic-tac-toe include all nine squares, plus saying "go fish" or declaring yahtzee.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 9:25 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

It also includes ridings where either the Liberal or NDP candidate is definitely going to win, with the chance of a Conservative victory is like unto a snowball in hell. You certainly can vote for NDP in that situation if you prefer, but there's no strategic value in choosing one or the other if you're voting against a conservative win.
posted by jacquilynne at 9:29 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Homeboy Trouble: For a value of "strategic" that includes Liberal/Conservative marginal ridings where the NDP finished a distant third last time and ridings where the guy who tweeted out that list deems the NDP's chances as "unlikely".

For the sake of strategic voting, would you happen to have a list of some of those ridings?
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 AM on October 21, 2019

final thought on the PR tip.

I wonder if how we get there is by committing to Single Transferable Vote first. Have a referendum where that's the only option on the ballot (other than status quo). With a clause that we're bound to vote on it again within say five years, at which point, other options may appear.

My overall rationale being. Let's get folks comfortable with the notion that change is possible before we take the deep dive into the complexity of change that it's going to take to render a genuinely "fair" democracy.

Because seriously, try to adequately explain Proportional Representation in fifty words or less to somebody who hasn't already done some of their own research. It can't be done. The percentage part is easy. But not how my particular vote(s) end(s) up being tallied, and who exactly will benefit from it/them, and within what/which riding/district/tier ...
posted by philip-random at 9:33 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

TOP TIP

It's a little late now but for future elections be aware you do not need to wait for advanced polling to vote, you can visit any Elections Canada office and write down your candidate on a blank piece of paper and get your democratic duty done with no waiting, no lines and no fuss anytime you wish.
posted by Twinge at 9:51 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I live in a riding that went marginally to the NDP over the Cons last election. I'm hoping it does again, and have had many conversations with people about strategically voting NDP instead of Green to keep the Conservatives out. Not necessarily to convince them, but there are a lot of conflicted feelings. It will be interesting to see what happens.

The voting process here is so quick and easy. I had a 2 block detour into work to get to the voting station, and took my card that they mailed me and my ID and I was in and out in under 5 minutes. I even made it to work early. Kudos to Elections Canada for the organization.
posted by sauril at 9:52 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

My riding will go either red or orange, so I voted orange. The old white red guy did some good work but the orange guy is a young racialized gay man. And Jagmeet, that's some sass we need.

I know Jagmeet "I'm on it (taxing the rich)" won't be PM but if he forms a minority government with Justin "Hoser" Trudeau I think policy will swing quite a bit to the left and that's GOOD.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:53 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

I'm honestly worried Trudeau will give in to Scheer's made up election rules and opt for the role of "loyal opposition" to avoid sharing power with the left.
posted by Reyturner at 10:00 AM on October 21, 2019

yeah - we could do far worse than a Liberal-NDP coalition. Particularly, if push comes to shove, Jagmeet would trounce Justin.

WARNING: link is to Facebook.
posted by philip-random at 10:04 AM on October 21, 2019

Also this:

Nardwuar vs. Jagmeet Singh
posted by philip-random at 10:07 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

"Hi, my name is Jagmeet Singh and I'm running for Prime Minister of Canada" aaarrrggghhhh that's not how it works and you know it!!!!!
posted by seanmpuckett at 10:10 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

The problem with any government reforming how we elect is that the government that makes the changes would be (justifiably) accused of rigging the game to benefit their party. So I understand why it was pulled back (I remeber comments at the time from Trudeau to the effect that there was so much disinformation and voter distrust of government at the time - which was before trump was elected!!, that there was fear that election reform would rile up the low-information right wing voters). So, although I may not get the result I want, I am actually ok with this boring campaign cycle not being 100% “trudope is stealing my vote!!!, not to mention the claims of an illegitimate government if he was elected again.
posted by saucysault at 10:17 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Remember, even if your vote won't be for the elected rep in your riding because you are outnumbered, your vote will count for determining public funding the party you vote for.

Your vote is a cash donation to the party you vote for.
posted by srboisvert at 10:18 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

My riding is a toss up.

I really wish there was a '+/-' voting system where you could vote 'for' one candidate and 'against' one candidate with the plus and minuses tallied like points.
posted by mazola at 10:19 AM on October 21, 2019

The Conservatives dumped the per-vote subsidy.
posted by jeather at 10:25 AM on October 21, 2019 [8 favorites]

Thanks! I was just googling that too because I thought it happened a couple of elections ago! :(
posted by saucysault at 10:26 AM on October 21, 2019

Nardwuar vs. Jagmeet Singh

Ha ha ha. Nardwuar's knack for finding rare and/or oddball recordings for his interviewees is fully on display here:

"I have a gift for you...a Tommy Douglas LP!"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:28 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

*opens thread* I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 10:29 AM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

→ Proportional Representation … But good luck explaining it to people

I dunno, "Your Vote Always Counts" seems simple enough. Most people can understand how a sports league works, and PR is very similar.
posted by scruss at 10:37 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

*opens thread* I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
posted by No Robots at 10:38 AM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Voted NDP in the advance, hoping for good news today. Halifax is a close damn race between them and the Libs.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 10:43 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Voted in the advance polls as I’m travelling today; currently sitting in Pearson waiting for my next flight.

Homeboy Trouble, as a fellow Calgarian, I feel your frustration. Over in Calgary-Confederation there were at least plenty of signs for the Green candidate, even though we know the outcome is going to be blue for the city.

Going to be weird being in the Maritimes to watch election results.
posted by nubs at 10:54 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Me and my boyfriend got to vote from out of the country and we’re really glad to once again have the opportunity.
posted by SpaceWarp13 at 10:56 AM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

Just join with me hoping the other Maxime Bernier wins in Beauce.
posted by jeather at 10:56 AM on October 21, 2019 [14 favorites]

Like she's been radicalized by Americans online and has now become this racist Conservative talking head and I'm seeing more Canadians going down that route and I get sad.

Well, conservatives are now chanting "Lock Him Up!" at rallys so.....
posted by Twinge at 11:03 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Like she's been radicalized by Americans online

That was the plan all along. Canadian conservatives do not want Canada, they want the United States. Too bad for them that the United States is radicalizing.
posted by No Robots at 11:11 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

The Trudeau Liberals promised it would be.

Yup. And when he got power he said it no longer needed changing.
posted by dobbs at 11:20 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Gosh, I wish 2015 was the last election under the first-past-the-post system.

From The Beaverton: "Millions of votes thrown away under first-past-the-post system create massive ocean garbage patch"

Proportional representation systems use nearly every vote, there's very little waste. But with first-past-the-post, there are millions of unused votes at the end of every election. … They're choking sea birds. They're being found by the hundreds in the stomachs of beached whales. Pretty much the only thing these votes aren't affecting is the makeup of the Canadian government.

posted by New Frontier at 11:30 AM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

I voted in the advance polls last week, in and out in under 5 minutes which was lovely.
I live in probably the strongest NDP riding in the country, so that's where my vote went.

I am consumed with anxiety at the prospect of Scheer getting in. He comes across as a total creep, even more than Harper was, and there's something off with him, a sense that he has no intellectual curiouosity, and that his worlview is extremely ideologically based, to a point where he doesn't recognize anything outside of it.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 11:33 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I'm an NDP supporter, and I am 100% against proportional representation.

Sure, it would benefit the NDP. But it would also benefit the People's Party of Canada, the Canadian Nationalist party, and other far-right extremists. Proportional systems give far too much power to fringe parties who can use their couple of seats to bargain with the bigger parties - who are themselves unable to form majorities, due to the proportional system. Ultra-Orthodox parties have disproportionate power in Israel due to the proportional system and even bargained their way into controlling the ministry of education; it's been so corrosive to the whole country. Do we really want to see a Maxime Bernier as minister of immigration? That's what he would demand in order to prop up a government.

And even if they couldn't get that, just having a seat in parliament legitimizes extremists. Now they are the "Right Honourable Nazi who wants to Eliminate the 'Parasitic Tribe'"

Single transferable vote, a ranked ballot - these would all be fine as they still mean that parties have to be moderate enough to garner a significant number of votes in one riding. But a pure proportional system would be a disaster, because there is still a significant minority spread across our country who are outright Nazis.
posted by jb at 11:34 AM on October 21, 2019 [20 favorites]

Sure, it would benefit the NDP. But it would also benefit the People's Party of Canada, the Canadian Nationalist party, and other far-right extremists. Proportional systems give far too much power to fringe parties who can use their couple of seats to bargain with the bigger parties

The New Zealand model of Mixed-Member Proportional (my preferred system) has a 5% cutoff for proportionally allocated seats. The PPC would get zero seats allocated under MMP, as would all the other fringe parties.
posted by rocket88 at 11:39 AM on October 21, 2019 [15 favorites]

That should have been 5% threshold, not cutoff.
posted by rocket88 at 11:42 AM on October 21, 2019

Wouldn't some voting behaviour change, though? I could definitely see the 15% of Conservatives with the PPC as their second choice switching their vote if they're in one of the many seats across the prairies with 60%+ Conservative wins, so long as they knew they had a chance to get a PPC member elected.
posted by clawsoon at 11:47 AM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I don't know much about the situation beyond what I'm able to Google, but:

How the far right is poisoning New Zealand

On the surface, New Zealand’s new government sounds like a progressive dream: a young, energetic prime minister reminiscent of Barack Obama or Justin Trudeau who not only discusses the importance of feminism but calls people out for misogynistic comments on the spot; ministers for climate change and child poverty reduction; and the fact that the heads of the three branches of government are all women.

But for all the excitement around Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her new government, the real power lies with the far right. And, more terrifying: The far right seized power by exploiting the very system meant to be a fairer version of democracy.

Led by veteran politician Winston Peters — who has made racist comments toward immigrants and people of Asian descent and Trumpian abuse of the press — New Zealand First has traditionally been an afterthought in New Zealand politics. That all changed this past September, when the two largest parties finished close enough in the general election that whichever party New Zealand First decided to enter a coalition with would control enough seats in New Zealand’s German-style MMP (mixed-member proportional) parliament to govern. In other words, a far-right party that received just seven percent of the vote had the power to decide who would rule.

If that wasn’t appalling enough, Peters and New Zealand First held the country for ransom, repeatedly delaying the announcement of their decision for several weeks as they extracted more and more concessions from suitors. When Peters finally declared on Oct. 19 that New Zealand First would go into a coalition with Ardern and her Labour Party, it was only because Ardern had kowtowed the most to his increasingly extreme demands.

For anyone who knows New Zealand better, is that a fair reading?
posted by clawsoon at 11:53 AM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

My polling place opened late this morning so I’ll be doing the deed after work, then going to a bar to watch the results come in. Hoping the late opening isn’t indicative of clusterfuckery at the polls.
posted by rodlymight at 12:02 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

clawsoon: that is exactly what I fear in Canada. I know more about Israel where it happens constantly that far-right extremists hold sway, even if they only have a small percentage of the vote.

I would never argue that FPTP is a perfect or even good system. But there are worse - and I would count proportional among them.

Ranked ballots - aka single transferable votes - are what we really need.
posted by jb at 12:22 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I dunno, "Your Vote Always Counts" seems simple enough. Most people can understand how a sports league works, and PR is very similar.

Yeah, the arguments against PR always seem to assume that people now understand how our electoral system works, which they absolutely do not. Many, many Canadians don't understand how our parliamentary system works, how we elect a PM, and so on (I mean, Scheer is already trying to confuse people about this before the election). If the standard is everyone must understand the system, no system is ever going to meet that. Let's be realistic.

Can a reasonable majority of people understand that seats would be allocated based on the total number of votes that a party gets? Sure. I'd be surprised if a significant number of Canadians didn't believe that this is already how we elect our government.
posted by ssg at 12:23 PM on October 21, 2019 [8 favorites]

But: Cambridge. Dude doesn't stand a chance.

Cambridge is one of those hotly contested / too close to call ridings (as is adjacent Kitchener South / Hespeler). But no he doesn't stand a chance - he does seem like a decent candidate though so maybe he'll run provincially. Neighbouring Kitchener & Waterloo provincial ridings went NDP in the last election (both excellent candidates) so there's support in the region.
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:32 PM on October 21, 2019

Proportional systems give far too much power to fringe parties who can use their couple of seats to bargain with the bigger parties - who are themselves unable to form majorities, due to the proportional system.

Sure, that's a valid concern and one that many systems have tried to address with minimum thresholds of 5% or similar. But this is way worse in our current system, where the Bloc has had far more seats than their proportion of votes in a number of elections. Could we end up with a situation where the Bloc (who are still, you know, advocating for breaking apart the country) hold the balance of power after this election? Definitely.

Let's not pretend that our current system protects us from this kind of thing.
posted by ssg at 12:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

PR and westminster democracy seem like a pretty tricky combination because of fringe parties and balance of power when someone needs to hold the confidence of the house. It would make more sense in a US-style system where shifting allegiances don't topple the executive branch of the government.
posted by jacquilynne at 12:40 PM on October 21, 2019

Proportional systems give far too much power to fringe parties who can use their couple of seats to bargain with the bigger parties

That's... Democracy though isnt it? People are voting for those parties. Your example that Israel shows PR leads to chaos is not really fair without mentioning all of Scandinavia, Germany, Ireland and more.

Ftpt is actually the outlier here and no wonder, it's arguably the worst model in terms of democratic outcomes.

Clawsoon, I am far from a New Zealand First supporter, but describing them as "far right" is innacurate. Peters' vanity vehicle is much more populist and incoherent than that. Also new Zealand's "far right" doesn't really accord to what people in north America might consider far right.

Additionally peters role as kingmaker is oversimplified. If he hitched his wagon to an unpopular govt he would be crucified, the decision was more complex than outlined.
posted by smoke at 1:15 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

I'm most inclined towards Approval Voting. It's by far the easiest to implement, and won't require a massive educational campaign to reteach people how to vote, or an overhaul of the existing ballot.

You get your ballot, and tick off anyone you're happy to have as your representative, whether you mark one X or three. Each candidate gets your vote. The winner still needs to appear on the most ballots (like FPTP), but you doesn't have to choose between Parties A and C if you hate Party B, and Party D won't be able to take advantage of a voting split up the middle and win a riding with 30% support.

Consider it STV without ranking. (STV for Dummies if you're so inclined.)
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 2:04 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Anyone have a liveblog or stream to recommend for following the returns tonight?
posted by saturday_morning at 2:07 PM on October 21, 2019

I've cast my vote. My polling place moved almost a kilometre farther away, but I'll go back again with my husband in a half hour or so. (I should have waited, but I find myself unable to do much on Election Day until my vote is cast, because WHAT IF something happens later and I CAN'T GET THERE IN TIME. A strange anxiety.)

I was very conflicted this time around. I'm an NDP supporter, but our Liberal MP is young and really quite good, and willing to tell his own party off. He's introduced a lot of left-wing things that I support, and I don't want to see him leave politics. It does look like he's going to win in a fair landslide, though. I don't think I've ever made my decision at the ballot box before, but I did this time. Honestly, having two candidates you'd be happy to see win is a nice luxury.

Our Conservative candidate made a bunch of noise online about there being too much mean misinformation about the Conservatives and thus she refused to attend the debate (you know, where you...state your views and correct that misinformation)? Let's just say it did not win her many fans on the neighbourhood Facebook group, where the prevailing opinion is that, as she was never going to win, she was told to stay out of the debate in case she accidentally said anything scandalous.
posted by ilana at 2:17 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

It wouldn't be a Canadian election without a potential robocall scandal:

...of course from a group calling itself "Proudly New Brunswick".
posted by rocket88 at 2:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

… but oddly, no misleading robocalls in Ontario where friends of Doug would likely break some legs in anyone tried.
posted by scruss at 2:42 PM on October 21, 2019

"Proud" is code for = crappy Right Wing Propoganda; in context of : "Proud" + a geographic location + evasive Fassbok sponsored ad/post. We got some Proud fone texts from PPC (furkin jerks)
posted by ovvl at 3:56 PM on October 21, 2019

What a wide rhetorical gap has opened up between "Pride" and "Proud"...
posted by clawsoon at 4:07 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

What a wide rhetorical gap has opened up between "Pride" and "Proud"...

If I heard "Proud Boys" five or six years ago, I would have been like, "What's that...a roving gang of twinks?"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:09 PM on October 21, 2019 [13 favorites]

Regarding electoral reform: I acknowledge that giving representation to splinter far right parties is a problem. Weighing that against a bigger problem: split votes, wasted ballots, and voter apathy among young voting-age citizens who think voting makes no difference. The deciding factor is that the Cons hate electoral reform, and former PM Harper adroitly twisted FPP flaws in his favour more than once.

I can't really comment on electoral issues in NZ, but my guess is that if they have problems with the influence of splinter groups, it implies intransigence of left & centre party leaders arrogance to forming coalitions amongst themselves. Which is sad.

(Okay, on to the Returns!)
posted by ovvl at 4:22 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Clawsoon, re NZ. General feeling here, especially on the right, that Peters does hold the main parties to ransom. True to the extent that he's good at negotiating. Untrue to the extent that his platform is not far-right. Here's the agreement his party has with Labour. The most objectionable parts, to my mind, are the pork barrel politics in the Regional Growth Fund and the failure to address the retirement age (though I'm probably alone in wanting it raised). He also (probably) helped sink a capital gains tax on houses, which would have addressed our ridiculously high prices.

Note that at the last election, there were alternatives, even if they were unlikely, such as the Greens supporting the (centre-right) National Party. Also that NZ First has been in government twice before (first time with National, he torpedoed it, second time with Labour, worked OK).

Also bear in mind that prior to MMP we twice had instances where the party that won the most votes didn't win the most seats, and a racist, populist politician was able to become Prime Minister with under 40% of the vote (e.g. National 51 seats, 39.8%; Labour 40 seats, 40.4%; Social Credit 1 seat, 16.1%) and we only got rid of him when someone ran a neoliberal, free market spoiler party and took lots of votes off the centre right. So MMP, at least, gives us a situation where the majority of people support the parties in the government. TL;DR it's not perfect but I think it works better.

On preview re ovvl: the only left/centre parties at the moment are Labour and the Greens, who didn't have a majority on their own; they needed NZ First (or else National could govern with NZ First and/or the Greens).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:26 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Results.
posted by Twinge at 4:26 PM on October 21, 2019

Give us roving gangs of twinks (or maybe twunks) over these hipsters that can recite breakfast cereals and the 14 words any day.
posted by jonnay at 4:27 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Just join with me hoping the other Maxime Bernier wins in Beauce.

Say what you will, THAT one didn't leave secret documents at his girlfriend's house.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:28 PM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

Anyone have a liveblog or stream to recommend for following the returns tonight?

CBC and CPAC are your best bets.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:28 PM on October 21, 2019

I’m “giving” my vote to my politically active 16 year old daughter. It’s her future.

When she gets home shortly we’re off to vote, and she’ll give me my ballot box directive.
posted by Construction Concern at 4:30 PM on October 21, 2019 [10 favorites]

Pink Frost: Social Credit 1 seat, 16.1%

Social Credit?? Like, that Social Credit, but New Zealand-y?
posted by clawsoon at 4:31 PM on October 21, 2019

Alternate history: If Bernier had stayed in the Conservative Party after losing the leadership race, and Scheer had replicated the mediocre loss that he seems to be headed toward, Bernier would've been a strong candidate to replace him after the next leadership review.

As it is, though, Bernier seems destined to limp into obscurity. So far as founding a new party is concerned, he's no Preston Manning.
posted by clawsoon at 4:43 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

clawsoon I hope to Og you are right about a Scheerly mediocre loss, but the night is young and I recall too well what happened the last time I was convinced a right wing demagogue asshole was unelectable...
posted by hearthpig at 4:48 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

On the subject of electoral reform, can we also admit that we badly need to fix our distribution of seats problem in Canada? People from PEI get about 3.5 times as many MPs per voter as the rest of us! And it's even worse in the North! This is another big advantage for the Liberals, who won 9 of the 10 lowest population riding last time around, getting 9 seats out of what should be about 3 ridings if they were equal to the average population.

And if you look in more detail, every populous province and most urban areas are underrepresented, while the entire Maritimes and SK and MB are quite overrepresented. It's ridiculously undemocratic.
posted by ssg at 4:50 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I suppose the Social Credit Party is the reason Alberta had such bizarre liquor laws. Up until the 1970s, Alberta bars were segregated between single men and escorted ladies, and single unescorted women weren't allowed at all. They didn't even allow barmaids/waitresses. The bars were required to shut down between 6 and 7 PM so the men would go home and eat with their families.

Up until the 1990s many Alberta bars still had a separate entrances for "Ladies and Escorts".

In BC, the Social Credit Party came to power in 1952 when the existing Liberal/Conservative coalition government changed the voting system to preferential ballot to try and keep the socialist CCF party out of power, assuming that no Liberal or Conservative voter would pick the socialists as their second choice. They were right, but everyone hated each other and picked the unknown and leaderless Social Credit Party as their second choice. The Social Credit Party won, and would rule BC for almost 40 years until 1991 before imploding. They would then change their name to the BC Liberal Party.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 4:57 PM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

Everything I know about the BC Social Credit Party I learned from Double Exposure's imitation of Bill Vander Zalm.
posted by clawsoon at 5:02 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Both Lispop and 338 have narrow Liberal minorities as their central-tendency projection, with a lot of uncertainty around that. I've been looking at the projections in Atlantic Canada, so here are some ridings that might be useful:

Both LISPOP and 338 have all of NL red, except St John's East which they both have as Lib/NDP tossup.
Egmont, west PEI: Lispop has slight Con, 338 has slight Lib
Fredericton: Both have as toss-up between Lib/Con
Central Nova: Lispop has lean Con, 338 has lean Lib
Acadie Bathurst: Lispop has solid Lib, 338 has lean Lib with NDP as second party.

The overall central tendency number of seats from the four Atlantic provinces:
Lispop: 25 Lib / 6.5 Con / 0.5 NDP
338: 24 Lib / 5.5 Con / 2.5 NDP

So if you start to see the toss-ups all go one way, or one party outperform these numbers, that might augur events later this night. As of right now, the Cons are leading in 9 seats -- but none of those have more than a handful of the ~200 polls reporting in, so it's very tenuous.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 5:03 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Der Osten ist Rot (album by Holger Czukay)
posted by ovvl at 5:19 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Off to vote. Hold my beer. (First time for Jr. Robots).
posted by No Robots at 5:35 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Can I just say this is the first time I've been on television?
posted by Capt. Renault at 5:44 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Ohhh, a Green seat in Fredericton (not confirmed, but leading)
posted by saucysault at 5:48 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Can I just say this is the first time I've been on television?

Person on the street interview? Or something more exotic?
posted by nubs at 5:59 PM on October 21, 2019

Egmont, west PEI: Lispop has slight Con, 338 has slight Lib
Fredericton: Both have as toss-up between Lib/Con
Central Nova: Lispop has lean Con, 338 has lean Lib

Canadian Press has called both Egmont and Central Nova for the Libs. Fredericton seems to have a fascinating three-way race going: Greens in 1st, Cons in 2nd, Libs in 3rd with 30% reporting and a margin of only some 900 votes between 1st and 3rd place.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:04 PM on October 21, 2019

Frederictonian checking in. This is a very exciting election, but then, it almost always is. I think I might already need to step away and come back in a little while because holy cats.

The Greens are basically the the "non-Liberal, non-Conservative" choice. NDP does basically nothing here but the Greens work *hard* in this area. We have David Coon here as well as a Green MLA.
posted by one of these days at 6:07 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Put my daughter to bed before or after the polls close from Quebec to Alberta in 10 minutes?
posted by clawsoon at 6:19 PM on October 21, 2019

Won't be results from those polls for at least a half-hour, I think.
posted by nubs at 6:21 PM on October 21, 2019

Looks like the Greens picked up the seat in Fredericton, and the central scenario of 24-25 Liberal seats in the Atlantic is spot-on. So far, so good. Put your kiddo to bed!
posted by saturday_morning at 6:23 PM on October 21, 2019

It's a school night!
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:29 PM on October 21, 2019

Yeah, it’s gonna be a little bit until we have a picture on what’s happening in Ontario and Quebec, methinks.

Speaking of bedtime, Mansbridge should’ve just gone full Big Lebowski and shown up in a robe.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

I'm a little surprised at how fast some early results are coming in, honestly.
posted by nubs at 6:36 PM on October 21, 2019

Huh. Early Conservative lead in Beauce. No sign of the Rhino Bernier on the board, though.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:45 PM on October 21, 2019

I’m watching the election at Avling brewery, where they’re having a party with Our Time Toronto, and the place is packed, and the room just erupted into a chorus of boos for Max Bernier.

Think I’m in the right place. And whatever happens tonight, they’ve got drinks.
posted by rodlymight at 6:49 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ha! Peace River-Westlock has the NDP candidate ahead by 4 votes. Enjoy the only moment you'll see orange in Alberta tonight.
posted by nubs at 6:53 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

My partner is a DRO and they won’t be home until the ballots are counted and picked up by the supervisor. Keeping the bed warm.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:54 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

nubs: Enjoy the only moment you'll see orange in Alberta tonight.

338 suggests that there's the possibility of Linda Duncan keeping Edmonton-Strathcona orange in a squeaker. We'll see...
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 PM on October 21, 2019

I feel very proud to have maybe flipped my riding. I saw lots of people younger than me at the polling station, and I'm 27!
posted by constantinescharity at 7:02 PM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

I think Linda Duncan has retired - her replacement is Heather McPherson. That threw the race wide open, but the Green candidate pulled out a few days ago to try to keep the conservative out, which hopefully did the trick.
posted by piyushnz at 7:03 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ahh, thanks for the correction.
posted by clawsoon at 7:05 PM on October 21, 2019

This CBC panel is like a well-behaved version of a U.S. Democratic debate. What do they have, 14 people around that broken table?
posted by clawsoon at 7:08 PM on October 21, 2019

CBC just projected a Liberal Govt.
posted by obliquity of the ecliptic at 7:09 PM on October 21, 2019

Seeing that CBC is projecting a Liberal government of some form
posted by nubs at 7:09 PM on October 21, 2019

Choose and perish.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:10 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I'm sort of surprised they can project this so early given how few polls are reporting in some of the results they are showing - not to mention how many seats are left!
posted by piyushnz at 7:12 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

CBC's online tracker is showing the Liberals tracking at net –20 seats right now, so they'll need to dig out of that a bit otherwise it's a minority govt. BC will be interesting..
posted by Kabanos at 7:12 PM on October 21, 2019

Seeing that CBC is projecting a Liberal government of some form

What a disaster it would be if that wasn't the case.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:13 PM on October 21, 2019

Puh-lease let the NDP pull through and be in the weird position of having lost seats but acquired the balance of power.
posted by Beardman at 7:14 PM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

Yay! It's not the worst thing, it's the other thing
posted by saturday_morning at 7:14 PM on October 21, 2019

I realize Chernobyl memes are probably a bit played out, but the early projection is kind of like 3.6 Roentgen per hour..."Not great, not terrible."

But we don't have the right dosimeter yet.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:14 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Choose and perish

That the new CP slogan?
posted by Beardman at 7:15 PM on October 21, 2019

I’m going to be super-pissed if progressive voters were scared enough that they voted Blackface McPipeline a majority.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:17 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

I'd be quite okay with a Lib-NDP coalition if it worked and involved some further action on climate change and electoral reform.
posted by piyushnz at 7:18 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Live map.
posted by clawsoon at 7:20 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Earlier someone on CBC had stated that no party had ever earned a majority who had a vote share less than 38%. Liberals on 37% right now..
posted by piyushnz at 7:22 PM on October 21, 2019

Thanks, the Global News map was killin me.
posted by Beardman at 7:22 PM on October 21, 2019

The CBC map is good even on mobile.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:23 PM on October 21, 2019

First past the post is so ridiculous. Greens so far have 9% of vote share, but are projected to have one seat.
posted by piyushnz at 7:23 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

CBC is forecasting a Liberal minority.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 7:23 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

So CBC called a minority, but currently the NDP don't have enough seats to bring them to 170. Given that the support of the NDP can't keep them safe, might they not bother trying to appease the NDP into a quasi-coalition and instead just be a regular non-cooperating minority governement?
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:24 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

CBC is now calling it as a Liberal Minority.

Now it comes down to how CLOSE they make it, and is Singh the kingmaker?
posted by Paladin1138 at 7:25 PM on October 21, 2019

A coalition of three could be wild.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:26 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

The ultimate irony would be if Wilson-Raybould wins her seat and ends up holding the balance of power.
posted by clawsoon at 7:26 PM on October 21, 2019 [9 favorites]

Libs at 150, NDP 19...

Remember that scene in Trainspotting where Begbie was watching a horse race and yelling, "C'mon son... c'mon son..."
posted by Beardman at 7:27 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

currently the NDP don't have enough seats to bring them to 170

BC results aren't in yet. It'd be reasonable to expect BC to put a potential Lib/NDP coalition over 170.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:27 PM on October 21, 2019

Could depend on recounts, at this point.
posted by Paladin1138 at 7:27 PM on October 21, 2019

Liberals probably hoping to move into the mid-150s at least, then that would give them the option of getting either the NDP or BQ on board for any given vote in the house.
posted by Kabanos at 7:28 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I can hear the scotch calling me but I already brushed my teeth and those flavours do NOT go.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:29 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Kabanos the Bloc is on-record as saying "No coalitions"
posted by Paladin1138 at 7:29 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Given that the support of the NDP can't keep them safe, might they not bother trying to appease the NDP into a quasi-coalition and instead just be a regular non-cooperating minority government?

It would be riskier, but the Grits wouldn't need to make any concessions for Dipper support. (*coughelectoralreformcough*)
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:30 PM on October 21, 2019

Peter Mansbridge for G.G.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:30 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Maxime Bernier is in second so far in Beauce, 3,896 votes to the Conservative candidate's 4,972.
posted by clawsoon at 7:32 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

First past the post is so ridiculous. Greens so far have 9% of vote share, but are projected to have one seat.

While the Bloc has a lower vote share and leading in 33 ridings! How is this democracy? And the NDP have twice the Bloc vote, but only leading in 20 ridings.

I sure hope we get either a Liberal-NDP government or (even better) a Liberal-NDP-Green government that can finally get electoral reform through.
posted by ssg at 7:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

I sure hope we get either a Liberal-NDP government or (even better) a Liberal-NDP-Green government that can finally get electoral reform through.


Unfortunately Trudeau seems to have no appetite for electoral reform.
posted by piyushnz at 7:36 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Like they are calling my riding and 12 votes are in.

They do call safe ridings pretty early, especially since they generally say which polls are returning so they have very detailed location results.

My main question is why the CBC livestream doesn't separate electeed and leading and who in the world thought creepy hologram-style projections of the party leaders were something that anyone in the universe wanted.
posted by jeather at 7:37 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

I can't see the Greens being willing to support a Liberals minority without electoral reform. I hope the NDP would take the same position. Will Trudeau be willing to swallow electoral reform to stay in power or will he rather go down than change the system?
posted by ssg at 7:38 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Kabanos the Bloc is on-record as saying "No coalitions"

Yeah. I meant more so that the Libs, if they have enough seats, won't necessarily have to worry about cementing any kind of ongoing coalition with just one party to stay alive. Depending on the bill before the house, they can tailor accommodations to suit either the BQ or the NDP to ensure passage. They'll have more flexibility.

The Bloc was a somewhat reluctant participant in the "coalition" of opposition parties in 2008, so yeah I don't think they'd go that route. But just watch the first time Trudeau passes something only with Bloc support – the Tories will take up Harper's talking points from that time, and yell about the Liberal's "coalition with the separatists."
posted by Kabanos at 7:41 PM on October 21, 2019

If there's one thing Liberals believe deeply in, it's being in power. Electoral reform virtually assures that they will be the lead party in a minority government going forward, if they can't get an outright majority.

There's much less daylight among the Liberals / NDP / Greens than between the Liberals and Conservatives so I just don't see, from either a policy or a partisan perspective, why they wouldn't take that deal.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:43 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

My partner is a DRO and they won’t be home until the ballots are counted and picked up by the supervisor. Keeping the bed warm.

Mine is counting at Parkdale--High Park.

Please pray for her return from the Interstellar-tesseract-except-it-only-contains-Tim-Hortons.
posted by rpophessagr at 7:44 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

they can tailor accommodations to suit either the BQ or the NDP to ensure passage.

But do they have to? Nobody, with the possible exception of the conservatives, wants another election any time soon. They're not going to topple the government, even if they don't get any concessions. They won't vote for the bill, but they won't make the government fall.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:44 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

And, to Kabonos's point, electoral reform stops the BQ from being able to sweep Quebec every decade or so, another bonus for federalism. Liberals are... for federalism, right?
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:45 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

jeather: and who in the world thought creepy hologram-style projections of the party leaders were something that anyone in the universe wanted.

Yeah. Yeah...
posted by clawsoon at 7:45 PM on October 21, 2019

There's much less daylight among the Liberals / NDP / Greens than between the Liberals and Conservatives so I just don't see, from either a policy or a partisan perspective, why they wouldn't take that deal.

I think the Liberals are far, far more interested in power than they are in policy, unfortunately.
posted by ssg at 7:46 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Hot tip: we've been watching the CBC with the sound on mute and a good Canadian album playing instead, and it's 80% less annoying. Our musical selection is Jeremy Dutcher's Polaris and Juno winning Wolastoqiyik Lintuwakonawa.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 7:46 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

I predict more than one mass abstention in the coming Parliament.
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Live from 1965: Macleans is colouring in the results on a map with pencils markers
posted by rpophessagr at 7:47 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Hot tip: we've been watching the CBC with the sound on mute and a good Canadian album playing instead, and it's 80% less annoying. Our musical selection is Jeremy Dutcher's Polaris and Juno winning Wolastoqiyik Lintuwakonawa.

Yeah, I've been watching a movie while having the CBC livetracker page open. Much better for my sanity, I think.
posted by nubs at 7:48 PM on October 21, 2019

Has there been any mention of the turnout? I know the advance polls had high turnout, but what about today?
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:48 PM on October 21, 2019

I predict more than one mass abstention in the coming Parliament.

Let's not forget the power of the prorogue!
posted by nubs at 7:49 PM on October 21, 2019

Hot tip: we've been watching the CBC with the sound on mute and a good Canadian album playing instead

Oh yeah, absolutely. Currently listening to Sloan.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:50 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Yeah. I meant more so that the Libs, if they have enough seats, won't necessarily have to worry about cementing any kind of ongoing coalition with just one party to stay alive. Depending on the bill before the house, they can tailor accommodations to suit either the BQ or the NDP to ensure passage. They'll have more flexibility.


[non-Canadian here] Presumably they'd have to get confidence and supply from someone though? (That's how it would work in NZ - either the BQ or NDP would have to agree to support the govt in a vote of confidence/on the budget, even if they voted against them on everything else).
posted by Pink Frost at 7:51 PM on October 21, 2019

Gah. The Bernier hologram! OTOH, it popped up when they just confirmed he lost his seat.

Also, Kory Teneycke has strong serial killer energy.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:51 PM on October 21, 2019

CBC confirms that Maxime Bernier has lost. Glad to see at least one white-majority Anglophone country is sending a big "fuck you" to the neo-fascists.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:52 PM on October 21, 2019 [16 favorites]

[non-Canadian here] Presumably they'd have to get confidence and supply from someone though? (That's how it would work in NZ - either the BQ or NDP would have to agree to support the govt in a vote of confidence/on the budget, even if they voted against them on everything else).

There is another option, which is basically a game of chicken. None of the other opposition parties want to be responsible for bringing down the government. So the Liberals could basically put forward a confidence motion and dare all the other parties to vote it down. It's a risky move, but it would likely work, at least for a while.
posted by ssg at 7:55 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

[non-Canadian here] Presumably they'd have to get confidence and supply from someone though? (That's how it would work in NZ - either the BQ or NDP would have to agree to support the govt in a vote of confidence/on the budget, even if they voted against them on everything else).

I think it's pretty common here for a strategic number of MPs from parties that are opposing but not TOO opposing to be in the bathroom, in their home ridings, out getting a sandwich, taking a phone call just outside the house, etc. etc. whatever at the moment of the vote. So all present party members vote against the government, but they make sure there aren't enough opposing MPs present to actually defeat the government.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:55 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

I think the Liberals are far, far more interested in power than they are in policy, unfortunately.

Not disputing the point -- but I meant that even from a fully Machiavellian power-oriented perspective, the Liberals are nearly guaranteed to be at the very least the dominant coalition partner under a non-FPTP system. Unless there's something I'm missing.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:56 PM on October 21, 2019

The thing to remember is that the "nobody" in "nobody wants another election" includes the voters. Any party perceived as responsible for triggering another election too soon would have a tough time defending themselves on the campaign trail and would likely be punished by the voters.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:59 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

God, the cons have the most votes but way less seats. FPTP is so so fucky. And the greens are getting robbed. Ugh.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:00 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Liberals are now behind the CPC in the popular vote, for those of you calibrating your electoral reform expectations.
posted by figurant at 8:01 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

My biggest surprise of the night is that Marie Henein is now a talking head.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:02 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

what if conservatives actually win the popular vote (CBC showing 33.9 CON vs 33.8 LIB) - guess we'll be hearing about that forever. Here come the shitty memes!

Thanks for making the election thread, clawsoon.
posted by sylvanshine at 8:04 PM on October 21, 2019

Not disputing the point -- but I meant that even from a fully Machiavellian power-oriented perspective, the Liberals are nearly guaranteed to be at the very least the dominant coalition partner under a non-FPTP system. Unless there's something I'm missing.

Trudeau scuppered electoral reform last time and the situation really hasn't changed. I think the Liberals would rather have a majority 60% of the time or something like that, than be part of a coalition. Also, they benefit greatly from the anyone but Conservative vote. I'm sure they'd lose 10-15% of their support to the NDP and Greens in a proportional system, making them not so dominant in any coalition.
posted by ssg at 8:04 PM on October 21, 2019

As the centrist party, though, Liberals would still hold the balance of power -- it's not like the Conservatives and the NDP would ever go into coalition together, and the Bloc would be much less powerful. I guess there could potentially be a Conservative-Green coalition if you squint real hard but there just don't seem to be many realistic situations where Liberals are out of power altogether under a new electoral system, regardless of the specific plan.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:06 PM on October 21, 2019

Looks like the GTA chickened out and went solid red. Yet again, the old "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives" at the last minute worked.
posted by clawsoon at 8:07 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Canada is saved from Trump-like populism, for now. Thank God.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:07 PM on October 21, 2019 [9 favorites]

I think it's pretty common here for a strategic number of MPs from parties that are opposing but not TOO opposing to be in the bathroom, in their home ridings, out getting a sandwich, taking a phone call just outside the house, etc. etc. whatever at the moment of the vote. So all present party members vote against the government, but they make sure there aren't enough opposing MPs present to actually defeat the government.

Ah, slightly different from our model, the leader who was trying to form a government would have to demonstrate to the governor-general that they had the confidence of a majority of the house, in order to form the government in the first place. Thanks for answering, derail over.
posted by Pink Frost at 8:09 PM on October 21, 2019

Sorry -- posted that before I saw your comment ssg. I can't definitively argue you're wrong about that, cynical though your argument may be.

Hopefully Trudeau Jr. gets humbled by this result and realizes how dangerous it would be to let Canada fall into the hands of the Conservatives at this important global juncture.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:10 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Maybe he could dismantle that pipeline.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:11 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Bernier’s girlfriend’s tears are delicious.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:14 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Does the CBC really need to show a concession speech from Maxime Bernier? Can't they just tweet out a 6-word quote?
posted by i_have_a_computer at 8:14 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Wait — she’s Bernier’s wife, not his girlfriend. That makes her tears even sweeter.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:16 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I'm thinking Bernier is more the 14 word quote type.
posted by Yowser at 8:17 PM on October 21, 2019 [11 favorites]

My main question is why the CBC livestream doesn't separate electeed and leading and who in the world thought creepy hologram-style projections of the party leaders were something that anyone in the universe wanted.

Huh? Where are you looking? I'm looking here which seems to show exactly what you're wanting.
posted by WaylandSmith at 8:19 PM on October 21, 2019

Wow, Rosemary just absolutely tore Bernier apart.

I mean, I'm glad they seemed to cut away from him a bit - he doesn't have a seat, he doesn't have any votes. He's basically just some guy at this point.
posted by one of these days at 8:20 PM on October 21, 2019 [5 favorites]

Edmonton-Centre didn't have to fall to the Conservatives. Such a disappointment. Most of us don't live in ridings that can make a difference, so it's disappointing when those who do throw away their vote.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 8:21 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Huh. Andrew Coyne just made a case for Proportional Representation? Am I that drunk already?
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:24 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Huh. Andrew Coyne just made a case for Proportional Representation? Am I that drunk already?

I didn’t think I’d yell “good point!” at the TV when he was talking, but here we are.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:27 PM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

Rosemary Barton is full of sass and I am here for it.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:28 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Since he wouldn’t be saying it if the results were reversed he can bite me
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:29 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

So much vote-splitting in the BC lower mainland ridings. Ugh.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 8:33 PM on October 21, 2019

The talking heads on the CBC constantly bloviating about the pipeline are driving me nuts! Both the Liberals and Conservatives support it. There was never any question that this election would not change the federal government's position on the pipeline (though I don't think it will actually be built regardless).
posted by ssg at 8:33 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

(Ralph Goodale, I'm pretty sure): "Whatever happens in the future, I will always..."

"...love yooooooooouuuuuuu"

(One can only wish.)
posted by clawsoon at 8:40 PM on October 21, 2019

The stream I was on was whatever was on CBC gem. It just had the total seats at the bottom, not the detailed split of leading and elected that I would expect and that was on their website.
posted by jeather at 8:41 PM on October 21, 2019

One independent leading: Wilson-Raybould is a few votes ahead of the Conservative and Liberal candidates.
posted by clawsoon at 8:45 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

@paulisci: "To promise electoral reform and then not deliver and then win a plurality of the seats without winning a plurality of the votes seems like an mirror universe O Henry story"
posted by figurant at 8:54 PM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

Jagmeet Singh is finally projected to win his seat. Creepy hologram incoming, I'm sure.
posted by clawsoon at 9:10 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

I want to highlight the dilemma of non-Con voters in Alberta. In my district (which is actually mostly urban), you could triple* the turnout of non-Con voters, and improbably assume that they all voted for the second-place party... and the Conservative would still win.

(* At a multiplier of 3.5 it finally becomes a contest.)
posted by sylvanshine at 9:12 PM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

Well, that wasn't as good as I hoped, or as bad as I feared.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 9:21 PM on October 21, 2019

Well, that wasn't as good as I hoped, or as bad as I feared.

The election result, or the creepy holograms?
posted by clawsoon at 9:24 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

Jagmeet Singh is finally projected to win his seat. Creepy hologram incoming, I'm sure.

Just happened.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:24 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

I thought Jody Wilson-Raybould would do a lot better in Vancouver-Granville, but that's vote-splitting for you, I guess. She's leading at the moment, still.
posted by invokeuse at 9:25 PM on October 21, 2019

Yay! Creepy hologram of Jagmeet!
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:25 PM on October 21, 2019

I just saw the name "Gary Vidal" pop up. That is such a perfect name - I am totally picturing Gore Vidal's hoser Conservative uncle.
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Didn't see that coming: one of the talking heads on the CBC using their final thought to trash Elizabeth May. Like, why?
posted by ssg at 9:32 PM on October 21, 2019

Who is the awful moderator in the middle of the CBC stream who just whataboutistically reframed what the other commentator said about the Liberals not engaging as much with Indigenous groups as in the previous federal election, into "well actually, none of the other parties are that supportive of Indigenous issues, amirite"? White Canadians are such assholes.
posted by polymodus at 9:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Jody Wilson-Raybould is projected to win. That cheers me up.
posted by clawsoon at 9:38 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

Didn't see that coming: one of the talking heads on the CBC using their final thought to trash Elizabeth May.

That was Mark Towhey. He was Rob Ford’s chief of staff when he was mayor, and fully believes all of the bigoted shit that issued forth from the Ford campaign and mayoralty.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:39 PM on October 21, 2019 [4 favorites]

And Towhey was seated beside Marie Heinen, who’s the sociopathic lawyer who represented Jian Ghomeshi.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:40 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Ooh! Jody Wilson-Raybould has been elected! I’m so proud! There were some tense moments where I thought I’d have a conservative MP.
posted by Valancy Rachel at 9:40 PM on October 21, 2019 [8 favorites]

So because I live 2h45m from work and worked today I requested a mail in ballot. Which ... never came. Also because I thought I had a mail in ballot coming I tossed my voter card. But because I don't work till 10AM I could still just barely vote (I know about the 4 hour rule).

So I show up at my polling place 20 minutes early fearing a big line and I'm the only voter there for 15 minutes. I need to see the registar (because no card) and my name is already crossed off the list (because of mail in ballot). The registrars and poll workers got a real work out with much referencing of documents as their very first voter :). Anyways still manged to vote in 15 minutes and made it to work with 3 minutes to spare.

An essentially useless gesture (the CPC canidate was projected to win by 338 with 90% confidence) but you never can tell.
posted by Mitheral at 9:42 PM on October 21, 2019 [7 favorites]

trash Elizabeth May. Like, why?
I believe that guy was a Sun Media guy so it kind of goes with the territory.
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:46 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ashwagandha: Cambridge is one of those hotly contested / too close to call ridings (as is adjacent Kitchener South / Hespeler).

Looks like both ridings went solidly Liberal, with close to 40% of the vote in each. The long-haired hippie was swept away by, I assume, strategic voting.
posted by clawsoon at 9:47 PM on October 21, 2019

Jagmeet is speaking. There’s an ease and authenticity there. Whether he has had a good night is yet to be determined, but tonight is not his end.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:58 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

The registrars and poll workers got a real work out with much referencing of documents as their very first voter :). Anyways still manged to vote in 15 minutes and made it to work with 3 minutes to spare.

Having worked elections in the past, it’s a long day and hard work. High five to the people here (or partners thereof) who did the work today.

And thanks for setting up the thread, clawsoon.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:58 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Singh: Pharmacare; Indigenous issues; no mention of pipelines. I wonder if that's a signal on how the minority government is gonna go.
posted by clawsoon at 9:59 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Singh: good god, how I love what this man says. I wish that I could have voted for him and voted for my Liberal candidate. What a conundrum.
posted by ashbury at 10:03 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

Singh mentions Grassy Narrows which is good to hear as he does seem sincere about it. However, my understanding is that it is a provincial rather than a federal issue (unfortunately especially with the present provincial government).
posted by Ashwagandha at 10:04 PM on October 21, 2019

The feds promised a treatment centre for Minamata disease in Grassy Narrows - Philpott made the agreement. Seamus O’Reagan told Grassy Narrows, in essence, to fuck off, and that agreement was null and void.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:06 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

Trudeau has talking about how they want to give money to Grassy Narrows but they're still negotiating.
posted by clawsoon at 10:07 PM on October 21, 2019

(On failure-to-preview, mandolin conspiracy's summary is better than mine.)
posted by clawsoon at 10:08 PM on October 21, 2019

Bah! Jarring transition from Singh to Scheer’s speech.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:09 PM on October 21, 2019

Now Trudeau’s speech cuts into Scheer’s.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:10 PM on October 21, 2019

Jagmeet Singh’s secret weapon: The way he talks.
posted by clawsoon at 10:11 PM on October 21, 2019 [3 favorites]

CBC is now split-screening Scheer, Singh and Trudeau’s speeches, with audio for Trudeau.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:12 PM on October 21, 2019

Back to Scheer: “When your government falls, and that time will be soon, the Conservatives will be ready and we will win.”
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:28 PM on October 21, 2019

In the face of climate disaster and authoritarian right wing populism, Canada still staggered to the right, just not quite over the precipice.

This isn't a victory, it's a stay of execution and more of the same two faced neoliberal rot isn't going save us.
posted by Reyturner at 10:30 PM on October 21, 2019 [12 favorites]

Scheer calls back to Diefenbaker's 1965 LP.
posted by clawsoon at 10:34 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

If another election gets called soonish Scheer won't be able to hide his spending/service cut plan by releasing it a couple weeks before the election on the Friday afternoon of a long weekend. He'll get pounded on it and the blackface thing will be water under the bridge.
posted by Mitheral at 10:44 PM on October 21, 2019

Lowest vote percentage for a Canadian government ever, at 33%; a million less votes for the Liberals than last time.
posted by clawsoon at 10:51 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

One of the panelists just pointed out that the NDP might have to be accommodating in a minority government because they are "flat broke" - he said they mortgaged their building in Ottawa to pay for the campaign - and are in no position to have another campaign any time soon.
posted by clawsoon at 10:54 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

I meant that even from a fully Machiavellian power-oriented perspective, the Liberals are nearly guaranteed to be at the very least the dominant coalition partner under a non-FPTP system. Unless there's something I'm missing.

The Liberals are - not unreasonably - paranoid that giving the NDP in particular greater power will encourage drift-away from Liberal supporter ranks, because the NDP actually stands for things sometimes and the Liberals stand for whatever keeps them in power, and the problem with a tautological raison d'etre is that if it falls apart it falls apart really badly.

And Towhey was seated beside Marie Heinen, who’s the sociopathic lawyer who represented Jian Ghomeshi.

Marie Henein is a criminal defense lawyer, and a very good one, and the thing about being a criminal defense lawyer is that most of your clients are in fact guilty of the crimes they are accused of. It would be wonderful if criminal defense lawyers could only represent innocent people, but whoops people commit crimes, so either you believe that criminal defense lawyers are a vital and necessary part of the criminal justice system or you don't.
posted by mightygodking at 11:05 PM on October 21, 2019 [9 favorites]

I just got back from Singh's victory party. I've never been to one of these before. Are they always surreal?

1) Early in the night a cheer went up: Jagmeet! Jagmeet! Someone from the podium remarked "he can hear you from somewhere in the building!"

2) Music: the NDP does not play radio edits

3) During Singh's speech, a bunch of young activists got a chant going: "Eat the rich! Eat the rich!" Singh, either misunderstanding or in on the joke: "That's exactly what we're going to do." So that's NDP policy now.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:20 PM on October 21, 2019 [10 favorites]

During Singh's speech, a bunch of young activists got a chant going: "Eat the rich! Eat the rich!"

I could've sworn I heard "Tax the rich!" on the CBC stream, but I wouldn't be surprised if some parts of the audience went with "eat" instead.
posted by clawsoon at 11:24 PM on October 21, 2019 [1 favorite]

imagine where we'd be if Bernier had gotten half a percentage point more votes in the Conservative leadership race

Being powered mostly by spite, probably my most favourite thing about this election is that if Bernier had been a good sport about the leadership race, walked away, kept his mouth shut, and read his fucking Mulroney, there'd be a decent chance his phone would already be ringing with obsequious CPCers on the other end of the line asking if he had any plans in the near future, oh, just curious, wanted to touch base...

Instead, like the rich man's completely stupid entitled prick son that he is he went full M. Trompe and has wound up une blague toxique. Almost gives me hope for this country.

Hopefully Trudeau Jr. gets humbled by this result...

Well, I'm sure he will say he is.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:27 PM on October 21, 2019 [9 favorites]

The rich are probably high in cholesterol so taxing is likely the better call imo.

Also yay JWR won. It's a bit weird to be in the riding of/have voted for a candidate that people outside the province would have heard of tbh.
posted by juv3nal at 11:27 PM on October 21, 2019 [2 favorites]

I could've sworn I heard "Tax the rich!" on the CBC stream

The cheer started as "eat the rich." Someone slightly more sensible of being on national TV hijacked the cheer to "tax the rich," which caught on more broadly. It's not clear which view Singh was endorsing.

NDP 2024: guillotines and steak knives
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:39 PM on October 21, 2019 [6 favorites]

NDP 2024: guillotines and steak knives


Finally. A platform I can stand behind.
posted by jonnay at 12:05 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

The cheer started as "eat the rich." Someone slightly more sensible of being on national TV hijacked the cheer to "tax the rich," which caught on more broadly. It's not clear which view Singh was endorsing.

¿Porque no los dos?.jpg
posted by Pink Frost at 12:09 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

According to my shitty understanding of math there is a 63% chance Scheer resigns as party leader soonish.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 12:20 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Realistically, that was the best outcome that we could have hoped for, I think. The Conservatives have been held back for now, and the NDP and Greens will have influence in the new Parliament. I have no idea what the Bloc will do - are they going to start making a case for Quebec separation again?

So pleased that Bernier lost his seat.

I think the Liberals are far, far more interested in power than they are in policy, unfortunately.

This is completely true, but the upside is that they are not bound to any particular ideology. If a whole lot of people - or the party that holds the balance of power - demand a particular policy, the Liberals will be more than happy to implement that policy and take full credit for it.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 12:46 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

I had the pleasure and honour of being a volunteer for Jody Wilson-Raybould's campaign. AMA (although I probably won't know the answer).
posted by morspin at 4:05 AM on October 22, 2019 [5 favorites]

Looking at the electoral map, my thought is that we desperately need to learn from our neighbours to the south and start some kind of Alberta/Sask/northern Ontario-GTA/Southern Ontario exchange program like, now, so that we all, or at least the yonguns, learn to start talking to each other. This may also go for Bloc territory.

Of course my 7 summers in Quebec resulted in me feeling like Quebecois girls were snotty and the Trudeau boys were hellions, so...
posted by warriorqueen at 4:17 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

According to my shitty understanding of math there is a 63% chance Scheer resigns as party leader soonish.


I think Scheer will be around for a bit; Kenney will take a run at him, but I think he wants some time to be in charge of Alberta first. Of course, that depends on other contenders also bidding their time. But I’ve always thought Scheer was a placeholder leader for the Cons.
posted by nubs at 5:30 AM on October 22, 2019

According to my shitty understanding of math there is a 63% chance Scheer resigns as party leader soonish.

I think all of those leaders' parties lost seats before they resigned? (I did not check this). Scheer increased the number of Con seats and won the popular vote compared to other parties. So unfortunately I don't think he will leave soon. But some of the comments in his speech did seem targetted to try to dissuade leadership challenges. So I think even he realizes it will be a constant threat.
posted by Kabanos at 5:42 AM on October 22, 2019

The thing about the PPC is that I thought it had a chance to split the rightish vote, something which I would prefer -- Reform initially did that, then dragged the Tories right when they joined up, and the Liberals took their chance and went more right as well (although they pretend to be centre-left instead of just plain centre). Not sure that is what would have happened, but hoped it might, because this multiple progressive parties (I think the Greens are given credit for being overall progressive because of the general association of environmentalism and progressivism, even though they're not, particularly) is not great.

Still, definitely the best result that could have reasonably been hoped for. I would have preferred a somewhat weaker minority but that's about it.
posted by jeather at 5:47 AM on October 22, 2019

But I’ve always thought Scheer was a placeholder leader for the Cons

WAITER : I'm sorry this table is reserved for even more hateful xenophobia, bigotry, and fear mongering.
posted by Fizz at 6:03 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

I think the memory of zero governments when the right was split between Reform and PCs is way too fresh for large numbers of Conservative voters to defect. The only thing I've heard about Bernier from conservative friends on Facebook is that they hope they never hear about him again.

The bigger problem for the Conservatives is that Diefenbaker and Mulroney's path to victory (Alberta+Quebec) is probably gone forever, and Harper's path to victory (ethnic suburbanites in Vancouver and Toronto) doesn't come naturally to the Reform core of Scheer's Conservatives. Will Jason Kenney have the stomach to do it again? Is anybody else in the Conservative Party up for learning about every single immigrant community and having no friends?
posted by clawsoon at 6:04 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Anybody have a spreadsheet of riding-by-riding results?
posted by clawsoon at 6:08 AM on October 22, 2019

Equal-area election results
posted by clawsoon at 6:16 AM on October 22, 2019 [9 favorites]

That's a really neat map but got me thinking, my riding has 7 hexagon units showing up as blue, but only 51% of the voters voted Conservative, the rest of the votes were split between Liberal, NDP, etc.
posted by polymodus at 6:23 AM on October 22, 2019

I think all of those leaders' parties lost seats before they resigned?

Just Ignatieff & Duceppe; Dion stepped down after the Lib/NDP/Bloc coalition damp squibbed two months after the election, but he knew the clock was ticking.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 6:23 AM on October 22, 2019

Yeah, that map is equal-area-by-riding-winner only. No equal area by popular vote, and no equal area by population.
posted by clawsoon at 6:25 AM on October 22, 2019

I see from Clawsoon's equal-area results there's quite a few ridings that haven't been called yet. I don't know the story of the others but locally there are some unusual happenings in the riding of Kitchener-Conestoga last night. 2015's race was pretty close so it isn't a huge surprise but I'm curious what has become of the missing 5 polls.

I just couldn't stay awake for anything more then the beginnings of the Singh speech... But I'm cautiously optimistic that a minority will help quell some of my issues with the Liberals and NDP. Though the clips from Scheer's speech make me feel like he's going to double down on crazy. In anycase as long we don't have to go to the polls in less than a year and they actually get some stuff done I think I could be happy (maybe some electoral reform).
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:27 AM on October 22, 2019

Looking at the electoral map, my thought is that we desperately need to learn from our neighbours to the south and start some kind of Alberta/Sask/northern Ontario-GTA/Southern Ontario exchange program like, now, so that we all, or at least the yonguns, learn to start talking to each other. This may also go for Bloc territory.

Please duck-duck-go "Katimavik".
posted by morspin at 6:40 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

Is there Katimavik for politicians?
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:44 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

I'd forgotten about Katimavik! Which is awesome. I was thinking more of a "3 months in your school, 3 months in mine" model.
posted by warriorqueen at 6:56 AM on October 22, 2019

That viral video of Scheer giving the same non-answer a dozen times to the Kinsella question was a really interesting moment. His approach to the situation was constructed by strategists for a television era: You're going to get 30 seconds max on the evening news, so the most important thing is to not say a gaffe. If you say the same thing over and over, you give the TV news no chance to play a clip of you saying something stupid.

In a social media age, though, that approach itself becomes a gaffe, as you end up looking like your creepy CBC hologram.
posted by clawsoon at 7:14 AM on October 22, 2019 [5 favorites]

Will Wilson-Raybould be sitting beside the Greens in the House?
posted by clawsoon at 7:21 AM on October 22, 2019

Which minority will the Trudeau government dress as though?
posted by acb at 7:28 AM on October 22, 2019 [6 favorites]

Sadly, I think what the Liberals learned (again) last night is just how well FPTP works out for them. Here's how the number of seats for each party breaks down relative to their share of the vote:

Liberals 40% more seats
Cons 4% more seats
Bloc 23% more seats
NDP 55% less seats
Green 86% less seats

I'd have thought that FPTP would be more advantageous for the Bloc than the Liberals, for obvious reasons, but it's actually the Liberals who benefit the most from FPTP, by far. I guess we can look forward to many more years of the same.
posted by ssg at 8:01 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

In the face of climate disaster and authoritarian right wing populism, Canada still staggered to the right, just not quite over the precipice.

36% of the country voted for a right-wing party. We're not staggering to the right, we're being dragged there by a fractured left and our FPTP system.
posted by thecjm at 8:10 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

We're not staggering to the right, we're being dragged there by a fractured left and our FPTP system.

And by the Conservatives attempting to target an additional few voters in key swing ridings by offering boutique tax cuts and carefully crafted policy initiatives. I'm grateful that they failed this time out, but it worked for Harper for a while.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 8:14 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Will Wilson-Raybould be sitting beside the Greens in the House?

The seating plan will be available here, but t looks like it won't be published until Parliament is back in session.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:22 AM on October 22, 2019

36% of the country voted for a right-wing party. We're not staggering to the right, we're being dragged there by a fractured left and our FPTP system.

And if you take our two oil & gas provinces out of the picture, who vote overwhelmingly for the Cons out of what can only be described as naked self interest (and climate denialism, in its more modern forms), you only end up with 30% of the rest of the country voting for the right (including the PPC).
posted by ssg at 8:30 AM on October 22, 2019

CBC confirms that Maxime Bernier has lost. Glad to see at least one white-majority Anglophone country is sending a big "fuck you" to the neo-fascists.

Ehhhhh. Given how much Bill C-21 was tied to the return of the Bloc I'm not sure it was that big a "fuck you." SNP they ain't.

Singh mentions Grassy Narrows which is good to hear as he does seem sincere about it. However, my understanding is that it is a provincial rather than a federal issue (unfortunately especially with the present provincial government).

This is honestly not even clear. The province is responsible for the environmental issue this falls under, but the federal government provides services to First Nations, not the province (there are even separate hospitals in some jurisdictions). Cleanup of the mercury would be a provincial problem, and the construction of new water treatment facilities would be federal. (Both need to happen.)

I'm disappointed that Eric Melillo won in the riding I grew up in; it's been voting steadily more conservative the older I've gotten. When I was a kid it was a Liberal riding federally and an NDP stronghold provincially. But after decades of neglect and mismanagement it's getting really reactionary. I had such hope when I saw that Rudy Turtle was in the lead for quite some time.

As for where I live now, we got the return of Chrystia Freeland, which I suppose was inevitable, but I quite liked Melissa Jean-Baptiste Vajda and I feel like she would have been a good, locally-focused MP for our riding.
posted by Fish Sauce at 8:57 AM on October 22, 2019 [3 favorites]

Apologies if mentioned above but I have a feeling that the popular vote totals are a bit misleading because -- similar to the situation in the US -- the extremely one sided districts tend to be right wing. The conservative ridings in the west are so lopsided that the hundreds of thousands of "wasted" votes don't translate into extra seats (votes aren't mobile). I haven't actually looked into it yet though. Just speculating.
posted by klanawa at 9:05 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

If I'm squinting at the map correctly, Saskatchewan and PEI are the only provinces that went single-colour. Alberta and Newfoundland were both saved from monochrome by a single NDP seat.
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 AM on October 22, 2019

Anybody have a spreadsheet of riding-by-riding results?

Closest I've found is that Elections Canada has the full (preliminary as of right now) results in a tab-delimited .txt file.

Recalling the rationale for including Bernier in the commission debates:

“Our report said it does not look like it’s possible for anyone to win a riding with less than 25 per cent support,” says Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, in an interview. “Below that, you could empirically say, there’s no chance. As soon as you get to 26 per cent, you can say there is a chance, regardless of how remote it might be.” (Nanos stresses that his firm did not do any polling or analysis for the commission related to the PPC.)

The commission then concluded that a party required one of every four voters to consider voting for it to have a “reasonable chance to elect its candidate.”

For the PPC’s best shots at victory, Bernier had proposed the commission look at the Ontario ridings of Nipissing-Timiskaming, Etobicoke North and Pickering-Uxbridge, as well as the Manitoba riding of Charleswood-St.-James-Assiniboia-Headingley.

Never mind that no publicly available poll suggested the PPC were running first or second in those ridings. They are rated “safe” or “likely” wins for the Liberals, according to projections from 338Canada, with the exception of the Charleswood-St.-James-Assiniboia-Headingley, which is considered a toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives. There, the PPC trails both parties by 30 percentage points.

...there are a few interesting data points in here.

Sorting for the top five PPC candidates by percentage of the vote in their respective ridings last night we get:

Maxime Bernier (Beauce) 28.4%
Mark King (Nipissing--Timiskaming) 5.3%
Steven Fletcher (Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley) 4.3%
Paul Mitchell (Red Deer--Mountain View) 3.9%
Laura Lynn Thompson (Red Deer--Lacombe) 3.7%

Renata Ford, who ran for the PPC in Etobicoke North, received 2.8% of the vote (Kirsty Duncan, the Liberal incumbent, won with just over 61%).

So not even close to any of the earlier polling data used to justify his presence.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:32 AM on October 22, 2019 [9 favorites]

Can anyone explain to me why the pendulum swung back for the Bloque Quebecois? I live here in Quebec. Separatism doesn't seem to be a huge thing with the young Quebecois folks I know. It doesn't make sense to me. As an aside, I'm very happy Boulerice is still here, the orange dot on a red island.
posted by constantinescharity at 9:33 AM on October 22, 2019

Steven Fletcher (Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley) 4.3%

But what about Steven's momentum?
posted by RobotHero at 9:38 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

@constantinescharity: from outside Quebec, as I said above, it looks very much like C-21 was a huuuuuge factor.
posted by Fish Sauce at 9:39 AM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

Separatism doesn't seem to be a huge thing with the young Quebecois folks I know. It doesn't make sense to me.

From what I've read (though disclaimer, I am not in Quebec) it's a combination of the Bloc's clear support for Bill 21, the laïcité law on religious symbols in public office; and the fact that the Bloc has successfully sold its shift away from a singular focus on Quebec independence, instead positioning itself as a party that is fighting for Quebec's national interests (or at least the interests of its current government), such as further jurisdiction over immigration, the aforementioned religious symbols law, pipelines, etc.
posted by andrewesque at 9:42 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

Also, racism.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:43 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

The NDP dumped their Quebec seats when they dumped Mulcair. C'est la vie.
posted by No Robots at 9:54 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

My totally random guess would be that quebecers didn't want to vote Liberal this time ('cause justin really f'ed up some stuff like his reputation) and weren't gonna vote conservative, so they fell back to the Bloc
posted by Bovine Love at 9:55 AM on October 22, 2019

Yeah I think the Bloc won for, mostly, those reasons above (Bill 21, racism) but as andrewesque explains I do agree that a big part of the appeal of the Bloc is that it would fight for Quebec interests (like Alberta, Quebec feels slighted federally). Also Blanchet is fairly popular and I think he ran a mostly positive campaign. Connecting with the electorate on a personal level can have a lot of power (see Layton's 2011 popularity in Quebec).
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:56 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

Also, re: Beauce...

Maxime Bernier (Parti populaire) 16772 votes (28.4%)
Maxime Bernier (Parti Rhinocéros) 1072 votes (1.8%)
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:07 AM on October 22, 2019 [7 favorites]

One thing I have found is common among former Katimavikers is how many of them learned to swear in their second language.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 10:13 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

In my riding, the Rhinoceros Party beat out the Communists, independent Jason "The Sensation" Tavares, and bitter rivals to the Communists, the Marxist-Leninist Party.
posted by clawsoon at 10:21 AM on October 22, 2019 [3 favorites]

I did a generic search for Canada in twitter, out of curiosity, and about the top ten results were Albertan no-name accounts whining about leaving. I wonder which botnet is pushing that, Russian or domestic. I'm sure plenty of the whining is actual people, but you don't get that kind of uniform promotion without bots.
posted by tavella at 10:40 AM on October 22, 2019 [6 favorites]

Curious as to who was the youngest MP elected this time around.

Mumilaq Quaqqaq in the new NDP MP for Nunavut, and she's 25. Her riding is over 1.8 million square kilometres in size.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:45 AM on October 22, 2019 [6 favorites]

Regarding the Bloc, I think you can read all kinds of things into it, but also Quebec just tends to swing hard from election to election. They swung hard to the Liberals last time, very hard to the NDP before that, and fairly hard to the Bloc in 2004. It may just be that if it wasn't the Liberals and wasn't the NDP, it had to be the Bloc.
posted by ssg at 10:53 AM on October 22, 2019

It’s vote parking for people who dont like the liberals or conservatives (since the NDP was collapsing) with a mix of core sovereignty support.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:56 AM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

PSA: If you have never been a poll worker for a provincial or federal election, please consider it for the next election in your area. It's a long day, but you get to contribute to the public good and be part of a team that does its damn best to let every voter cast their ballot. Typical positions pay between $240-$275 for a 14-ish hour day, plus a standard rate for your training: not Bezos' bucks, but still more than minimum wage.

If you have a day job, you may still be able work election day! Your 3 hours training can happen on a weekend before the election, and if your job lets you take personal days, or if you have a flexible schedule, you can book off election day (and maybe the day after).
posted by maudlin at 11:15 AM on October 22, 2019 [7 favorites]

In addition to the equal-area map that clawsoon posted earlier, there's another map here that is also an equal-area cartogram by riding that also permits you to toggle back and forth between the 2015 and 2019 election results (and befittingly is also available in French).

Flipping back and forth quickly really underlines the Conservative (all but) sweep in Alberta and Saskatchewan and the Bloc's resurgence at a glance.
posted by andrewesque at 11:24 AM on October 22, 2019 [3 favorites]

That's an awesome map, andrewesque, thanks!
posted by clawsoon at 11:29 AM on October 22, 2019

when canadian journalists die, they either go to heaven, hell, or a purgatory where they have to discuss early results in atlantic canada on a loop that resets every two hours for the rest of time

I enjoy this stupid period SO MUCH.
posted by jeather at 11:29 AM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

In my riding, the Rhinoceros Party beat out the Communists, independent Jason "The Sensation" Tavares, and bitter rivals to the Communists, the Marxist-Leninist Party.

even the Rhinos being less absurd than the ongoing bitter rivalry here in Canada of the Communists and Marxist-Leninists.

I do wish to hell the NDP would just own their Social heart already and change their name to the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP), because it's been a long f***ing time since they were New.
posted by philip-random at 11:50 AM on October 22, 2019

alternately, if they don't wish to be explicitly socialist, they could go with SDP (Social Democratic Party).
posted by philip-random at 11:51 AM on October 22, 2019

I wish the NDP could sort out whether it's an old-fashioned Christian farm party, an industrial labour party, a green party or an urban nu-Liberal party. Actually, I'd like it to be all of those things, but each of those bases tend to think of their interests as being orthogonal, which they're not.

(By contrast, the entire Conservative M.O. is to leverage the fear, outrage and tribalism of their rural/suburban/resource-worker base in the interests of their other, smaller base -- the owners of capital. So it's hard to feel too critical of the NDP at all, in that context.)
posted by klanawa at 12:09 PM on October 22, 2019 [6 favorites]

tavella: I did a generic search for Canada in twitter, out of curiosity, and about the top ten results were Albertan no-name accounts whining about leaving. I wonder which botnet is pushing that, Russian or domestic. I'm sure plenty of the whining is actual people, but you don't get that kind of uniform promotion without bots.

Saying that Alberta is now a "province without a country" is very popular this morning among my Alberta friends on Facebook. Canadian flags are coming down and Alberta flags are going up.

I'm sure this intense wave of emotion will pass, but the underlying feeling that Canada has betrayed them is simmering at NEP-like levels.
posted by clawsoon at 12:19 PM on October 22, 2019

I hate that “engine of Canada” nonsense. Without Paul Martin's enormous subsidies Alberta would still have been a nowhere backwater with no industry but a handful of cows, and you can get cows anywhere. My godfather has cows. Strip those subsidies out and the oil industry is less than 10% of our economy (I've read estimates as low as 1%). And they STILL refused to learn to diversify during a boom, despite being bit by it before.

Plus they behaved like assholes to the rest of the country when they were on top.

I agree that we can't leave them behind – we shouldn't leave anyone behind – but Jesus fuck they make it hard.
posted by Fish Sauce at 12:25 PM on October 22, 2019 [18 favorites]

I'm seeing a lot of "you'd be nothing without our resources!" shit coming out of Alberta. And I think to myself, "without the market, you'd be living the medieval Highland high-life with half an acre of potatoes and a ewe."

The lack of self-awareness in "Western" crybaby discourse is so embarrassing. Yes, we know where the oil and grain come from. We need them. And if we didn't buy them you wouldn't be able to line up around the Tim Horton's drive through every morning in your brand new Dodge Ram Dually that you presumably made from scratch by banging rocks together.
posted by klanawa at 12:30 PM on October 22, 2019 [10 favorites]

Plus they behaved like assholes to the rest of the country when they were on top.

Hopefully this will just be a short period of time where they are acting this way but yeah they are making it hard. Look at Premier Scott Moe in SK, he's doubling down. Compare him with NB's Progressive Conservative premier. Cooler heads hopefully will prevail but it doesn't look like that at the moment.
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:38 PM on October 22, 2019

when canadian journalists die, they either go to heaven, hell, or a purgatory where they have to discuss early results in atlantic canada on a loop that resets every two hours for the rest of time

I enjoy this stupid period SO MUCH.

I grew up in rural BC where you had two choices for election coverage.

The first went like this: "This is Peter Mansbridge at CBC election headquarters. It's 11pm, or 8pm in BC, where the polls have just closed. For BC viewers just joining our live coverage, we can let you know that about an hour ago, the statisticians here at the CBC declared a Liberal majority government."

The second went like this:

"This is Peter Mansbridge at CBC Lloyd Robertson at CTV election headquarters. It's 11pm, or 8pm in BC, where the polls have just closed. For BC viewers just joining our live coverage, we can let you know that about an hour ago, the statisticians here at the CBCCTV declared a Liberal majority government."

And then you could turn your TV off and go to bed.

Or not, because it was only 8:02pm.
posted by jacquilynne at 12:43 PM on October 22, 2019 [6 favorites]

Given that the rest of Canada betraying them by not voting Conservative, it is clear that western provinces need to form their own right-wing federal political party that clearly stands for their values without compromise to those eastern elites, and fights to reform the broken politics of Canada. A party of reform. Hey, why not call it the Reform Party? I bet that would work like gangbusters!

I hate that “engine of Canada” nonsense.

Yep. Drives me nuts. Oil and gas production is <6% of total GDP. You are hardly the engine when 94% of the economy is something else.
posted by fimbulvetr at 12:46 PM on October 22, 2019 [11 favorites]

> a purgatory where they have to discuss early results in atlantic canada on a loop that resets every two hours for the rest of time

But if you skip this part you miss out on the best live TV moment of the night.
posted by Space Coyote at 12:53 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

36% of the country voted for a right-wing party. We're not staggering to the right, we're being dragged there by a fractured left and our FPTP system.

If the left is fractured, Trudeau is holding the hammer and chisel.
posted by Reyturner at 1:04 PM on October 22, 2019

klanawa: "without the market, you'd be living the medieval Highland high-life with half an acre of potatoes and a ewe."

Hey, now, I resemble that remark. Or... I did when I was growing up, anyway. But we grew carrots and peas on that half-acre, too! And it was a goat, not a sheep!
posted by clawsoon at 1:21 PM on October 22, 2019

Having grown up in a single-industry city in Ontario where the good times rolled until they didn't, the Alberta situation is remarkably familiar.

It's not some kind of central-Canadian left-wing talking point to say that Alberta grossly mismanaged windfalls from its resource boom (and quite frankly, I'm pretty sure any other province in their position would have been almost as equally short sighted).

It's actually the opinion of the Fraser Institute...

Alberta’s missed Heritage Fund opportunity:

Over the past decade, the province of Alberta treated boom-time resource revenues like a permanent state of affairs. That set the province up for fiscal failure, for multiple lost opportunities.

One high-profile example is the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund. The fund was enacted via legislation from the Alberta government in 1976. It was created, in part, to save for the future by diverting a portion of resource revenues every year that otherwise would end up in the government’s general revenue fund.

In theory, the fund would provide options for future Alberta governments—everything from disbursing cheques to citizens (as occurs in Alaska with the Alaska Permanent Fund) or replacing resource revenue streams when they slow to a trickle.

When then-premier Peter Lougheed created the fund, it was immediately given two deposits—a one-time payment to “kick start” the fund, and a portion of the current year’s resource revenues (30 per cent). That latter practice continued up to and including 1987, though in ever-smaller proportions.

After 1987, no deposits were made until nearly two decades later, when deposits were resumed briefly between 2006 and 2008, only to cease once again.

By the end of 2014, the fund’s market value was $18.4 billion.

Now consider a comparison: the Alaska Permanent Fund, created the same year as Alberta’s fund but which accepted its first deposit in 1978.

How has Alaska done? As of the end of 2014, the Alaska Permanent Fund was worth US $52.8 billion, or $61.3 billion Canadian.

So what’s Alaska’s secret? In 1976, the Alaska legislature crafted a constitutional amendment that let voters approve or deny diverting 25 per cent of oil revenues to the proposed fund. Also useful, the Alaska government was prevented from touching the fund principal. Voters approved that amendment in November 1976, by a two-to-one margin.

Also, in addition to the constitutionally mandated 25 per cent rule, later Alaska law, the 1980 Permanent Fund Act, required that 50 per cent of all newer mineral lease rentals, royalties, royalty sale proceeds, net profit shares (and other related revenues from the same) be deposited into Alaska’s fund.

As a result, Alaska has a very different institutional control and safeguard on its fund compared with Alberta, where no such voter or constitutional protections exist.

Predictably, the Fraser Insitute goes on to harp about part of the problem being government spending on public services, but the point about not socking away money like Alaska or Norway while the resource boom was happening being a huge mistake stands.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:24 PM on October 22, 2019 [7 favorites]

The painful lesson of the Notley years is that a socialist government is inevitably constrained by the circumstances in which it operates. Thus Notley came under attack from the Right and the Left for the way the oil file was handled. At this point, it seems that the only way forward is to abandon the parliamentary system and take a more revolutionary stance. Ten thousand Albertans attended a rally at the legislature last week where Greta Thunberg was the draw. The writing is on the wall, no matter how some don't want to face it.
posted by No Robots at 1:32 PM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

Toronto accounts for 20% of Canada's economy, so the prairie proud can just suck it. I got your engine right here, pal, and it looks like an ultra-diverse uber-queer hedonic paradise. TOOT.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:35 PM on October 22, 2019 [8 favorites]

I spent a few years working with oil and gas analysts, most of whom were based in Alberta, and it's pretty hard to overemphasize the degree to which a lot of platitudes about Alberta's industry are just not accurate.

Crude from bitumen is heavy and dirty and needs upgrading, which requires expensive plant infrastructure. Building upgraders? Huge capital investment which, if it happens, creates tons of direct and spinoff jobs for quite a while -- everything from construction, fabrication, equipment supply, vehicle leasing, and so on -- even those $20/hour Tim Horton's job in Fort McMurray we were hearing about in the early 00s. Huge economic boon to the area where it's happening. But what if something goes wrong?

How the US shale boom killed Alberta's upgraders:

Prior to the 2007/08 collapse in oil prices, almost a dozen upgraders were slated for constuction or expansion in Alberta. But rising light oil production out of US shale shifted the prospects for Alberta's bitumen.

As light oil supply expanded in the US, imports of heavy oil from Venezuela and Mexico began to decline due to lack of investment. After spending billions converting refineries to accept more heavy/sour crude, US refineries, particularly in the Gulf Coast, found themselves short of heavy feedstock, increasing demand for Alberta's diluted bitumen and narrowing the spread between light and heavy oil.

As capital costs for Alberta's upgraders spiralled out of control and US demand for light/sweet crude declined, the economics of upgrading bitumen in Alberta no longer made sense. As production from the oil sands continues to grow, upgrading capacity is unlikely to grow with it, making Alberta's crude exports increasingly heavy and sour.

And that's the industry talking inside baseball to itself.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:43 PM on October 22, 2019 [4 favorites]

And one other piece of that:

Due to high capital costs and strong demand for heavy crude, Alberta's upgrading capacity is unlikely to keep up with growing production from the oil sands. The future of upgrading likely lies in partial upgrading, where heavy oil is transformed just enough to reduce diluent requirements, lowering transportation costs and improving netbacks.

Hence the urgency (real or imagined) around pipelines.

In other words, less money being spent in Alberta and on Albertans, just upgrade it enough to get it out of the province and to market, so less economic activity at the point of extraction.

Sure, there'll be some extra pipeline construction jobs and attendant spinoff jobs in th short term, but over the long term, the trend is toward less investment in Alberta itself by the industry.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:49 PM on October 22, 2019 [5 favorites]

Toronto accounts for 20% of Canada's economy, so the prairie proud can just suck it

While this stat may be accurate I am always a bit hesitant to crow about Toronto's outsized contribution to the Canadian economy because to me all of those large insurance and finance buildings on Bay Street and University Avenue seem to be a method for Toronto to extract wealth from the rest of the country.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 1:51 PM on October 22, 2019 [7 favorites]

While this stat may be accurate I am always a bit hesitant to crow about Toronto's outsized contribution to the Canadian economy because to me all of those large insurance and finance buildings on Bay Street and University Avenue seem to be a method for Toronto to extract wealth from the rest of the country.

Not to mention the progressive legacy of the Ford family.

*sighs*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:53 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

I did a generic search for Canada in twitter, out of curiosity, and about the top ten results were Albertan no-name accounts whining about leaving. I wonder which botnet is pushing that, Russian or domestic. I'm sure plenty of the whining is actual people, but you don't get that kind of uniform promotion without bots.

The Kenney machine has had no problems with stoking Western alienation as a means to an end; whether or not there is foreign involvement feels kind of irrelevant to me right now.

It's politically convenient, short-term - it keeps the frustrations of many Albertans focused on a perceived "lack of support" from the rest of the country instead of providing the leadership needed to confront a changing international economy and a developing shift in energy production. Now that Kenney is in charge he needs someone to blame because the boom isn't back (and likely never will be), and pointing to the real reasons won't fly.

The dangers are multiple, to my eyes - serious talk of separation will only further decrease investment in any project or business here, whatever the sector; no preparation for the future means we get left with no plan or readiness for how the world is changing; and it further pisses off the rest of the country, who already don't like how Alberta acted during the good times (justifiably), so what Albertans feel they are hearing is a lack of support. It becomes self-reinforcing, in other words. It makes other Canadians the "other", and Albertans the "other" to the rest of Canada. That maybe sickens me the most, because it then so easily transforms into "othering" inside the province - for not voting "right", for being different in any way.

Our oil is no longer competitive in the world market. It costs too much to get out of the ground and into a useable state. It may never be competitive again. And yet, even with this going on, I read one analysis that said if Alberta raised taxes to match the 2nd lowest jurisdiction in the country, we'd be running surpluses again.

I do think there's a sizeable number of people here who do want something different; we just can't seem to break through yet.
posted by nubs at 1:57 PM on October 22, 2019 [5 favorites]

Y'all should know I think these financial comparisons are hot garbage anyway. We all should be working together, for a brighter future in the off-world colonies. Do you want to know more?

Help me I've become a trope
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:59 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Do you want to know more?

Will the Voight-Kampff test be administered at polling stations? What if Replicants demand universal suffrage?

Many questions.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:02 PM on October 22, 2019

It may never be competitive again.

I think we can be fairly assured that oil prices will go up, a lot. It just take some patience.
posted by Bovine Love at 2:05 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

I do think there's a sizeable number of people here who do want something different; we just can't seem to break through yet.

It feels like all politicians in Alberta just end up towing the oil / "the rest of Canada is being mean by not building pipelines for us" line. It happened to Notley, it happened to Nenshi (yesterday on the CBC he was pushing oil and pipelines like crazy), and I think it's getting worse.

I'm increasingly convinced that any real action on climate change in Canada is going to happen over the objections of AB and SK and that's going to get ugly real fast. I hope I'm wrong and I know there are many in Alberta who don't think this way, but it really doesn't look good.
posted by ssg at 2:06 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

For BC viewers just joining our live coverage, we can let you know that about an hour ago, the statisticians here at the CBC declared a Liberal majority government

I appreciate that they changed voting times so most of the results come out at once and as BC gets more populous it will matter more.

I just don't entirely understand why the Atlantic provinces close two hours earlier.
posted by jeather at 2:08 PM on October 22, 2019

Well, we may have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the future. But we shouldn't have to - abundant sunshine and wind, plus the a large number of abandoned/orphaned oilwells and people who know how to drill make me think that geothermal should have a future here.

Anyways, hope to see you all in the future when we have fully automated gay space communism.
posted by nubs at 2:10 PM on October 22, 2019 [3 favorites]

I just don't entirely understand why the Atlantic provinces close two hours earlier.

My glib answer is time zones. But giving it a bit more thought I could see a strong case for polls to be open nationwide until 9:30pm Pacific time. That will mean they're open longer in other areas, which I don't know if it would be claimed as some inequality, but then everyone would have the same information and learn about the results at the same time.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:36 PM on October 22, 2019

But giving it a bit more thought I could see a strong case for polls to be open nationwide until 9:30pm Pacific time.

Sweet Jesus, polls in Newfoundland would be open until 2AM! With them opening at 8:30, that's 16.5 hours for the poll clerks and returning officers to sit there, before having to open the damned boxes and counting. Haven't they suffered enough?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 2:55 PM on October 22, 2019 [10 favorites]

(Damn, should have waited for one more comment, then that one would have been #338.)
posted by GhostintheMachine at 2:56 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

If you look at the election hours across Canada you will see that the Atlantic provinces are outliers on hours.
posted by jeather at 3:18 PM on October 22, 2019

You wouldn't need to keep any polls open longer. Just wait to release the results anywhere until polls are closed everywhere.
posted by mbrubeck at 4:46 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Combed the thread and am pretty sure this hasn't been pointed out yet, and the objection wasn't really raised much actually anyway, but I feel compelled to point out that the claim that electoral reform would have produced different election outcomes is at least somewhat confounded by the fact that a post-electoral-reform ELECTION would have been run differently given the new rules. Maybe not intelligently or successfully, or with the same outcome, but certainly *differently*. and so I feel on this basis that the "yeah but if we only had electoral reform beforehand" objection is a bit bogus.
posted by hearthpig at 5:27 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

And I think to myself, "without the market, you'd be living the medieval Highland high-life with half an acre of potatoes and a ewe."

No, it would be a quarter-section and five cattle. It's Saskatchewan that would be the potatoes (or canola) province.

Honestly, I think the "Alberta is the ONLY economic engine/there are no other industries in the country/everyone else is just picking Alberta's pocket" bullshit is being spread deliberately. Someone -- either the Conservatives or the oil companies -- stand to benefit.

I know that Harper managed to pull together Eastern Tories and the Western Reformers, but the more regional and oil-sands centric the party becomes the less likely that is to happen again. There's a natural social conservative/anti-immigrant affiliation with the Ford/Harris douchecanoe faction in Ontario, but those people aren't going to be willing to die on the hill of oil and gas extraction in a province three doors over.

So the Conservatives might just become a regional party, like the BQ.
posted by jrochest at 5:32 PM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

The feeling I get from Facebook friends parallels Quebec separatism in this way: "Canada does not respect our culture" is modified to "Canada does not respect our money." Also: "Canada is trying to destroy culture" is modified to "Canada is trying to destroy our economy."

There's some excitement among the excitable about a threat Kenney has apparently made to hold a referendum on equalization payments. Considering equalization is in the Constitution, this promises to open as large a can of worms as a successful Quebec separatist referendum would.
posted by clawsoon at 5:42 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

Also I take pride in my golf pencil and paper voting system.

You got a golf pencil? Mine was secured by being the size of a horse's leg.
posted by Mitheral at 6:46 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

I was surprised not to see any electronic tabulators like the ones we used in the Ontario provincial election.
posted by Evstar at 7:19 PM on October 22, 2019

Maybe not intelligently or successfully, or with the same outcome, but certainly *differently*. and so I feel on this basis that the "yeah but if we only had electoral reform beforehand" objection is a bit bogus.

Of course, people would vote differently and the campaign would be run differently if we had electoral reform. But underrepresentation of the NDP and Greens is a very real thing as is strategic voting (definitely Green and NDP supporters voting Liberal, probably to some degree PPC supporters voting Conservative, but that's far less known), so I don't think we're really going out on a limb to say that the results would look pretty different with electoral reform. We don't know exactly how such a theoretical election would pan out, but it's pretty reasonable to make some assumptions and figure out where they lead you.
posted by ssg at 7:37 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

as a for instance, I live in a house with three votes. All of us voted NDP for a candidate who won. Yay! But were things proportional, it would've been a three way split. One NDP. One Green. One Liberal.
posted by philip-random at 7:48 PM on October 22, 2019

Proportional representation would make our governments more variable, for better and for worse. Sometimes it would be the Greens holding the balance of power; sometimes it would be the Member from the Republic of Gilead. More exciting in any event.
posted by clawsoon at 8:04 PM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

The other quirk of proportional representation is how it meshes -- or doesn't -- with the Westminster system. Parliaments are skewed towards producing majorities, and they don't usually deal very well with coalitions. PR systems will usually produce governments made up of multiple parties -- so we'd maybe need to rebuild the political system as well as the voting system.

If this had been seats by PR, then the Liberals would have 112 seats, the Tories 116, the NDP 54, the Bloc 26 and the Greens 22. Bernier would have had 6 seats, and god knows what to do with a single-seat candidate like Wilson-Raybould. Admittedly, the voting patterns would have been different under PR, leading to a more even distribution of seats among the parties, and maybe bringing smaller parties into the house. But it still looks like passing a bill would need cooperation between several parties, and our political system *sucks* at that.

I like the idea -- I like it much better than FPTP -- but I think things would need to be heavily tweaked.
posted by jrochest at 8:45 PM on October 22, 2019 [1 favorite]

"Canada does not respect our culture" is modified to "Canada does not respect our money."

*muttermuttermutter*CLENCHTEETH "Alberta'scultureISmoney" *muttermuttergrumble*...

Not fair to the many non-neocon Albertans, I know I know. But really, having lived on either side of them for a significant portion of my life, I grow tired.
posted by jrochest at 8:50 PM on October 22, 2019

I was surprised not to see any electronic tabulators like the ones we used in the Ontario provincial election.

Having worked the polls in a federal election, the key thing about Elections Canada’s process is the ballots are counted in the open witnessed by adversarial parties who all have to be satisfied before a result is final. I’d hate to see them disappear into a black box.
posted by rodlymight at 9:05 PM on October 22, 2019 [7 favorites]

It's funny what oil will do to a culture. Before oil, Alberta had some of the most radical politics in North America - a government-owned bank, the founding of the CCF, lots of cooperatives, women's suffrage before most of the rest of Canada. After oil, it started that slide into patriarchal, conservative politics that seems to be the eventual fate of a lot of oil producing polities.
posted by clawsoon at 9:10 PM on October 22, 2019 [13 favorites]

As it is, though, Bernier seems destined to limp into obscurity. So far as founding a new party is concerned, he's no Preston Manning.

Yes, I was pleased to see that the PPC is currently running 0 for 338 on its electoral success rate.

I spent a looooong day as a DRO yesterday and it was fine. My only real moment of anxiety was when an elderly woman disappeared behind the screen and spent a good eight or ten minutes pondering the options, I guess, before re-emerging. I was mildly concerned that perhaps she had suffered a heart attack, which is definitely not something covered in the handbook. Another voter, a young mother, took her two-year-old daughter with her on her hip when she went in to vote. As soon as they were behind the screen, the toddler burst into tears. Looking at the slate of candidates in my riding, I was surprised that was not more common.

I also noted that all my fellow polling station workers had taken to heart the directive that all of the party colours were forbidden for clothing the day of the election: with blue, red, green, and orange off the table we were a notably monochrome lot (save for one woman doing her best to make yellow and brown a winning combo*). During the training two weeks ago, our trainer mentioned that this rule applies to all the regular staff for the duration of the five-week campaign; as an aside, she mentioned she was glad that no new party had gone for any combo of black/white/gray, as then she and all her colleagues would be clad in yellow and purple for a month or more.

And I did hand ballots to about ten or twelve folks, both young people and new Canadians, who mentioned they were voting for the first time. Though I am not a notably sentimental person about flag-waving and my-country-‘tis-of-thee and the sacred traditions of democracy, I made sure to shake the hand of each one of them.

*Note: it is not.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:41 PM on October 22, 2019 [14 favorites]

Also: I helpfully put up my little ENGLISH/FRANCAIS sign indicating me as bilingual and realized that not one of the other 27 or so poll workers had done so. I was vaguely worried I might get stuck being Monsieur l’Interpreteur all day but it never came up once (silver lining to this tedious whitebread Anglo city, I guess). I spoke more Russian and Norwegian chatting with voters yesterday than French.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:52 PM on October 22, 2019 [2 favorites]

If this had been seats by PR, then the Liberals would have 112 seats, the Tories 116, the NDP 54, the Bloc 26 and the Greens 22. Bernier would have had 6 seats, and god knows what to do with a single-seat candidate like Wilson-Raybould.

Depends on the PR system. Most have minimum thresholds, which means Bernier's PPC would get zero PR seats. Independents would win their constituency seat, but would get no PR-allocated party seats.
posted by rocket88 at 8:22 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

The other quirk of proportional representation is how it meshes -- or doesn't -- with the Westminster system. Parliaments are skewed towards producing majorities, and they don't usually deal very well with coalitions. PR systems will usually produce governments made up of multiple parties -- so we'd maybe need to rebuild the political system as well as the voting system.

I'd say our current parties don't deal well with minorities, because they aren't used to them. But most of Europe (plus NZ, etc), have parliamentary systems and don't use FPTP. Somehow, they manage to get on. Our political parties will need to accept the reality that minority governments are the new normal and adjust accordingly, but that's not rebuilding the political system, by any definition.

Proportional representation would make our governments more variable, for better and for worse. Sometimes it would be the Greens holding the balance of power; sometimes it would be the Member from the Republic of Gilead. More exciting in any event.

The balance of power isn't some mystical key that unlocks unlimited power. Parties can choose to work together or not work together on different issues; there can be more than one combination of parties to make up a majority; and so on. And no one is forcing any party to enter into any agreement with the Republic of Gilead or any other party—in fact, if voters see that a particular party is willing to cave to extremists, they may well punish them at the next election.

This idea that FPTP equals stability and any more proportional system is subject to all kinds of wild swings is not at all borne out by the many other countries in the world that have more proportional electoral systems. It is, quite frankly, a scare tactic used by those who benefit from our current system.
posted by ssg at 9:05 AM on October 23, 2019 [4 favorites]

The main problem with PR, at least in the flavours that we might actually use it, like some form of multi-MP MMP ridings, is that it doesn't actually solve the problem everyone was fussing about this time around. Strategic voting (or tactical voting, if you prefer) happens in any system that still has riding and does a majoritarian count for winners. If you don't believe me, it's been observed in the wild in most MMP polities, including NZ and Germany. Indeed it introduces new forms of strategic voting, like preferring possible coalition partners rather than just front runners.

In my view, feeling that you have to vote against your own preference is a much more serious issue to me than having the final MP counts faithfully reproduce the national average for popular vote. I personally don't give a damn about national vote percentages. I want to be able to vote for the candidate I want. In the ridings that I have lived in, there's enough concentration of votes that voting, say green or perhaps even NDP would "waste" my vote. Even in say 6 MPs in a riding, it's unlikely that there would be enough votes to push even one of those members over the top. So I would, as I often have to do hold my nose, again, and vote of someone I really don't want, but don't want less than the fiery pits that should await one of the candidates in my current riding.

IOW, I want a preference voting system. If we stay with single ridings, I want IRV. If we go with MMP-style ridings, I want STV. Let's be clear, there's nothing really wrong with MMP, but it doesn't prevent strategic voting. That's a huge miss for any form of limited PR in my view.

Incidentally, apropos the commission report of the last Parliament, I don't give a fuck about Gallagher Indices---indeed, I think using that to judge systems is prejudicial and flawed in the extreme, as it is a biased ruler that produces one preferred result---full PR---without allowing other options. It was dishonest in the extreme that that got made into an official recommendation as a neutral metric. It's anything but. Until we can stop trying to put thumbs like the GI on the scales when we chose options and actually do it in good faith, we should stop pretending to discuss fairness in electoral options.
posted by bonehead at 9:57 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

Strategic voting (or tactical voting, if you prefer) happens in any system that still has riding and does a majoritarian count for winners.

Except for one or two degenerate cases that don't matter, there is an incentive to vote strategically in *any* voting system. Gibbard-Satterthwaite, motherfuckers!

But ISTR that actually voting strategically in approval voting and some other schemes is NP-hard or some other variety of Very Difficult Indeed.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:12 AM on October 23, 2019 [1 favorite]

You're the expert on this, but isn't strategic voting really, really hard to arrange in preferential systems? The arguments seem to imply that it comes up almost never in real situations, while in majoritarian counts, it can come up often.

Let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good and all that.
posted by bonehead at 10:23 AM on October 23, 2019

I did a quick ranked-ballot calculation based on the results so far (thanks, mandolin conspiracy!) and the second-choice numbers from this pre-election poll.

If I didn't screw anything up - and I probably did - here are the ranked ballot results that might have been:

                Ranked  Actual
Conservative      113    121
Liberal           162    157
NDP                27     24
Green Party         3      3
Bloc Quebecois     33     32
Independent         ?      1

I should do some actual work for my job now. If I have time later I might do a MMP simulation.

Happy to share the code if anyone would like to use (or even better, check) it.
posted by clawsoon at 10:31 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

that slide into patriarchal, conservative politics that seems to be the eventual fate of a lot of oil producing polities.

not in Norway.

The simplest way to put it is that while Norway has been using oil revenues to build a massive "rainy day" (ie: post-carbon fuel reality) fund, Alberta's been using its considerable revenues to pay for schools etc (there is no sale tax in Alberta, for instance). This has been going on for many years, happening more or less in the background. Folks are happy to pay less for things, keep more of every dollar they earn. But now that things are turning, now that climatic reality is bearing down -- there's precious little money on hand to do anything about it. So fuck yeah, they're doubling down on Climate Change Is A Lie It's A Hippy Liberal Plot Also Too Many Immigrants.

The upside is that more than 30 percent of the vote in Alberta went against the Conservatives on Monday. Which means the number is probably higher, because knowing your candidate doesn't have chance in hell of winning is a pretty solid disincentive to not bothering to vote.
posted by philip-random at 11:09 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

Noway funds their entire CPP equivalent with their sovereign oil fund revenues.

Alaska does a better job of saving than Alberta does. The ACP in its various incarnations has mostly been really terrible at running the Heritage Fund. Most Albertans will acknowledge this, but that's really not helpful to the current situation. Prentice was exiled to the wilderness for even suggesting that overindulgence might not be the best policy. He was an ass about it, but still.
posted by bonehead at 11:15 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

> I also noted that all my fellow polling station workers had taken to heart the directive that all of the party colours were forbidden for clothing the day of the election: with blue, red, green, and orange off the table we were a notably monochrome lot (save for one woman doing her best to make yellow and brown a winning combo*

todo: found two canadian political parties, one that uses black for their color, another that uses white. solely to mess with poll workers.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 11:32 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

PFFT elections Canada workers are unflappable. They'll just wear paisley, or dazzle.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:54 AM on October 23, 2019 [4 favorites]

From the department of old-shit-in-new-bottles:

Misleading election day robocalls linked to third-party Canada Strong and Proud

Funding for CS&P came from a curious collection of sources, including real estate developer/housing firms and from the Manning Centre. The Manning Centre is refusing to divulge its source of funds. This is dark money being used to cause mistakes in voter behaviour.
posted by bonehead at 11:59 AM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

Alberta Economy Makes Transition to Renewable Sources of Anger
posted by hearthpig at 12:20 PM on October 23, 2019 [3 favorites]

Would MMP just result in a mix of seats basically reflecting the popular vote? What with the whole compensatory part that Wikipedia talks about? Or is it more complicated than that?
posted by clawsoon at 12:22 PM on October 23, 2019

That's the basic gist. In NZ there is also a 5% threshold that each party has to cross to get their share of seats (although they can still win individual seats).
posted by piyushnz at 12:38 PM on October 23, 2019

                Actual  Ranked  MMP
Conservative      121    113    119
Liberal           157    162    114
NDP                24     27     55
Green Party         3      3     22
Bloc Quebecois     32     33     26
Independent         1      ?      ?
People's Party      0      0      0

posted by clawsoon at 1:17 PM on October 23, 2019 [1 favorite]

That's using what flavour of MMP? Nice work btw.
posted by bonehead at 1:32 PM on October 23, 2019

For MMP, I just cut off all parties that got less than 5% of the vote and divvied out the seats proportionally among the parties that were left over. It was very quickly done, so it could well be wrong.
posted by clawsoon at 1:36 PM on October 23, 2019

That's more a straight PR... which is still neat to see.

MMP usually implies a two vote system, one for a local candidate and one for a list candidate. That can be for a national list, but doesn't have to be. Some places use multi-MP ridings as the (larger) proportional district, and so on. It's mixed because voters have both a traditional fptp vote and a proportional list vote. I'm not sure that that can simulated with the dataset we have right now.
posted by bonehead at 1:43 PM on October 23, 2019 [1 favorite]

That's why I asked the question upthread. I decided to go with the easy answer. :-)
posted by clawsoon at 1:47 PM on October 23, 2019

You might be able to get an assumed rough guess at MMP by taking a half-way point between your PR result and the FPTP one. Not perfect by any means, but might get at a feel for what Parliament might look like.
posted by bonehead at 1:47 PM on October 23, 2019

But it would really depend on people not split voting (voting for one party locally, and another on the proportional vote, which something like a quarter of NZ voters do apparently), and on the local riding breaks. So lots of caveats, but still kind of useful as a rough guess of what it might look like.
posted by bonehead at 1:49 PM on October 23, 2019 [1 favorite]

I was also going off this sentence in the Wikipedia article:

MMP differs from parallel voting in that the nationwide seats are allocated to political parties in a compensatory manner in order to achieve proportional election results.

posted by clawsoon at 1:57 PM on October 23, 2019

The reality is that there are different variants of MMP that have been proposed or are in use, differing in how people vote. However, in all cases, the idea is to make the mix of MPs match the proportion of votes their party receives, while at the same time, keeping local MPs.

You can achieve proportionality either by just adding MPs from a list to correct the imbalance you get from the MPs directly elected in ridings or you can use a kind of regional system, where there are multiple MPs elected in regions to correct the imbalance, but the difference is not really fundamental; the basic idea is the same. In some cases, you get two votes (one for the local MP, one for the party) and in others just one (MP and party together); but again that difference is not fundamental.

Parallel voting is when you get two votes, one for the local MP and one for the party, but party MPs are elected solely based on the party votes, so there is no attempt to make the composition of the house proportional to the total votes. I don't think parallel voting has really been seriously considered in Canada.

MMP is just a system to achieve two goals—directly elected local representation and a proportional house—at the same time. It's a little more complex, but that complexity is what makes it possible to achieve both goals at once.

So if we had a MMP system in Canada, the composition of the house would be in proportion to their total share of the vote (except in the case of minimum thresholds).
posted by ssg at 3:27 PM on October 23, 2019 [2 favorites]

PFFT elections Canada workers are unflappable. They'll just wear paisley, or dazzle.

We are also trained to run in a zigzag pattern to confuse and evade predators.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:45 PM on October 23, 2019 [7 favorites]

The MMP proposal I keep seeing examples of is basically a scaled-up version of the New Zealand model.
Our 338 constituencies would become 228 slightly larger consituencies, and MPs would be elected just like they are now using FPTP. In the second half of the ballot voters would choose their preferred party, and those results would determine the proportional mix of the final parliament. The 100 "list" seats would be distributed to those parties receiving less than their proportional share, topping them up to the correct PR number. The actual MPs selected could either be taken from party-supplied lists, or selected from 2nd place finishers from the constituency elections.
For Canada, we would also need to make sure we maintain proper regional/provincial allocation of "list" MPs.
posted by rocket88 at 10:41 AM on October 24, 2019 [2 favorites]

What happens if it's not possible to create the correct PR number with the 100 or so list seats? Like what if (to be extreme so the potential problem is clear/obvious) everyone loves their NDP candidate and they elect 200 MPs but then people prefer the liberals as a party and 80% of the PR votes go liberal? You'd need to end up with 262 liberal seats, but there are only 100 seats to distribute to make that happen.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 10:52 AM on October 24, 2019

That's called an overhang, and for less extreme real-life occurrences involving only a few seats, the usual approach is to add more list seats beyond 100 until proper balance is achieved. Those extra seats are only for that term of parliament and after the next election would go back to 100.
posted by rocket88 at 11:40 AM on October 24, 2019 [1 favorite]

Wouldn't in theory it make sense to form two ideologically identical parties and then campaign for vote for one locally and the other proportionally? Like just have the LiberalA party and LiberalB party?
posted by RobotHero at 11:50 AM on October 24, 2019

I'm an expat Canadian living in the US who got myself re-registered on the Voter Rolls last month, and voted Liberal (lesser of two evils) by mail even though the local candidate didn't have a chance (Calgary, you know). I'm relieved about the results, but is there really nothing we can do to induce Trudeau get rid of FPTP?

A Calgary acquaintance who's on board about climate change somehow voted Conservative because "Trudeau is a disaster and we MUST get rid of him." I pointed out that as a Woman of Colour, the cost of having Conservatives in power is my actual physical safety due to Conservatives being fronts for emboldened White Supremacists, but out of an excess of diplomacy I failed to point out that if she considers herself my friend perhaps she too might consider prioritizing my physical safety and that of my family still in Calgary.

She's oil/gas adjacent -- she was talking about #Wexit and how AB is talking with Alaska about building a pipeline. I asked her if she thinks AB is economically viable as a solo country as the economy transitions away from fossil fuels. She seamlessly switched to telling me that I drive a combustion engine car, as if that answered my question.

Ugh. Glad to know from this thread that there are other Albertans like me who think long term.
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 9:50 PM on October 24, 2019

Is she aware that Alberta and Alaska don't touch?
posted by Mitheral at 9:54 PM on October 24, 2019 [3 favorites]

Or that we already had an oil pipeline across western NWT and YK (or more accurately, the Americans had one) and it wasn't a great success?
posted by ssg at 8:24 AM on October 25, 2019 [1 favorite]

Speaking of the NWT, we had our Territorial election just prior to the Federal one.* The new premier, Caroline Cochrane, has been selected, along with her cabinet of six, four women and two men.

Not only was there a fairly large turnover during the election itself, with many incumbents losing their ridings, but this is the closest we've come to gender parity in members of the Legislative Assembly, with nine women and ten men elected.

My riding had two candidates and a difference of 11 votes between them. Another riding I believe was 5 or 6 votes between the two leading candidates. Voting is important!

*- I have never been so thankful for our relatively short campaign "seasons" in Canada.
posted by ODiV at 9:34 AM on October 25, 2019 [6 favorites]

Scheer's Conservatives missed scoring 'on an open net,' Peter MacKay says as leadership talk heats up

Quebec will make immigrants pass 'values' test
posted by clawsoon at 4:05 PM on October 30, 2019

That values test is all kinds of BS. It isn't going to weed out anyone who takes the test but I could see some people deciding not to bother if they have to jump through hoops like this. Which I guess is part of the intent.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 5:03 PM on October 30, 2019

→ talking about #Wexit

More people live west of the DVP/404 in Toronto than live in Saskatchewan. The entire government representation of that > 1.1 million population is 33 people: 11 councillors (THANKS DOUG FORD), 11 MPPs and 11 MPs.

Good old Waaaaaaaaaaaaaahlberta.
posted by scruss at 5:32 PM on October 30, 2019 [1 favorite]

It's pretty funny that the latest "we're taking our ball and going home" effort in Alberta has a name inspired by the dumpster fire that is Brexit.
posted by Mitheral at 8:39 PM on October 30, 2019 [3 favorites]

On electoral recasting of the vote, Radio Canada has done the math on alternate outcomes than FPTP: full PR, NZ-style MMP and Germany-style MMC.

Standard caveats apply, in particular tactical or strategic voting would be entirely different under all these system which could result large vote shifts, on the order of 20% to 30%. But still interesting to see.
posted by bonehead at 5:44 AM on November 6, 2019 [1 favorite]

Interesting, bonehead. Looks like they didn't include a 5% cutoff, which is why they got seats for the PPC under MMP and my calculations didn't.
posted by clawsoon at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2019