What are the Germans going to do?
June 9, 2020 9:25 PM   Subscribe

Our nation is not like imperial Germany, and great as our dangers are, they can’t be compared to the horrors of that earlier time. But there may be a distant lesson from a country whose rulers in war, quarrelling among themselves, inflicted unimaginable harm to their people and to the world with their mendacity, secrecy, and paranoia. The consequences of their leadership—bolstered as it had been by claims of divine guidance, shrouded in chauvinism, and fortified by the cunning manipulation of pervasive fear—became fully manifest only later, as the people of an aggrieved nation turned against each other, almost reveling in their deep political and moral divisions and hatreds. It took a worse catastrophe, a world-historical scourge, to teach a lesson to these affected people. By distant analogy, we too might learn a lesson about the dangers and follies of imperial hubris.
Imperial Hubris: A German Tale
posted by MoonOrb (23 comments total) 25 users marked this as a favorite
 
That was a really interesting article, and a great example of how learning more history can lead you out of the mental shackles that come from learning a little history.

Perhaps no single analogy has been so often and so perniciously invoked as “Munich.” (How many remember what actually happened?) ... [summary of the Munich Conference of 1938 elided here] ... To label American critics of an escalating involvement in Vietnam or Iraq as “appeasers” or proponents of “Munich” is dangerous nonsense, all the more so because the analogy may obscure the actual dangers that confront the United States.

This reminded me of a little rant jammed into THE LAST WHOLE EARTH CATALOG back in 1971 which has stuck with me for years. After hunting around in my basement for a while and finally digging up the quote by flipping through with a vague memory of where it lay on the page ... I bring you this prediction from 1971:
A GENERATION LOOKING FOR "MUNICH" MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A GENERATION LOOKING FOR "VIETNAM"

There was, once upon a time, a generation whose consciousness was formed by Munich, and that generation has been walking around looking for Munich ever since. Among them are the guys who got us into this crazy disaster in Vietnam, because they were looking for Munich and they thought they had found another one.

Try to think what it is going to mean to have millions of Americans looking for Vietnam the rest of their lives. That is: the first thing they say about an American president is: "He is probably lying to us." Not the last thing. Not the thing you come to through great suffering. But the first thing you say is: "That son-of-a-bitch is probably lying, because every American President I can remember has been lying to us."

That is going to cut very deep, because if you are living in a society in which a big chunk just doesn't believe the government is legitimate, or thinks it probably isn't, and you've got to prove it to them with great labor that it is, that is a very strange event in American history.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 11:30 PM on June 9, 2020 [38 favorites]


Thanks for posting this, MoonOrb, I having been saying for a while that this whole thing is more like 1914 than like 1933 (or perhaps we have fast forwarded into 1918 already because time is weird under Trumpism). There was an opinion piece in yesterday's Guardian warning against Tom Cotton 2024, and I think it is relevant. It may not be Tom Cotton, but any just slightly more competent trumpist could be a very dangerous thing for everyone alive. And trumpist America including hundreds of thousands if not millions of police will certainly be angry and vengeful if the current movement towards more equality and fairness succeeds.

Some might say that at least Trump didn't start a Great War. But didn't he, though? It's not a was fought in the trenches of Europe, it's a war fought in the neighborhoods of America, against Americans of color and immigrants working for America. People are always looking for the last war for reference, but each new war is different except for one thing: people die, and mostly poor people. As Harvey Kilobit's quote also says, amazingly presciently.
posted by mumimor at 1:19 AM on June 10, 2020 [10 favorites]


Don't mention the war.
posted by fairmettle at 3:10 AM on June 10, 2020 [6 favorites]


That is: the first thing they say about an American president is: "He is probably lying to us." Not the last thing... That is going to cut very deep, because if you are living in a society in which a big chunk just doesn't believe the government is legitimate, or thinks it probably isn't, and you've got to prove it to them with great labor that it is, that is a very strange event in American history.

This is correct: "Those paying close attention know that trump's victory is Pyrrhic. Trump has accomplished nothing during his term and his rhetoric has helped to rapidly accelerate leftward swings in public opinion across the board. He's not a proof of concept. He's a last, angry gasp."[1,2]
The right saw that culture was trending against them, and instead of figuring out how to manage the shift, they turned to the nastiest, dumbest piece of crap candidate and ideology, because he bellowed loudly and promised to restore a lost past.

The right could have embraced immigrants as Reagan and Bush wanted. Instead they went for mass deportation and a return to the 1924 racist exclusion law.

The right could have accepted gays. Instead they made anti-gayness a pillar of social conservative ideology.

Once the right set itself this impossible goal -- a return to the world of the 1890s -- they had no choice except to embrace the only person and movement who promised to deliver it. But that person, of necessity, was a big-talking con man used to making bullshit promises.

So the right yoked itself to Trump's wagon. And with a little help from COVID-19, they even got a big policy win out of it -- a pause in immigration. A momentary return to 1924.

But the price of that small victory, and 3 years of owning the libs, will be incalculably steep.

With his unique blend of ineffectuality and hatefulness, Trump has turned the country decisively against not just Trumpism, but conservatism in general -- and radically accelerated all of the leftward cultural trends that the right initially feared.

Let this be a lesson: Bend with the times, or you'll break.
The whole world is on BLM's side: "The world wants America to be the nation it promised to be back in the 20th century. We promised the world that we were a country of laws, a country that didn't care about race, a country that was open to everyone. We've betrayed those promises. The world wants us to make good on them. Ta-Nehisi Coates really said it best, here." [Between the World and Me]
Perhaps there has been, at some point in history, some great power whose elevation was exempt from the violent exploitation of other human bodies. If there has been, I have yet to discover it. But this banality of violence can never excuse America, because America makes no claim to the banal. America believes itself exceptional, the greatest and noblest nation ever to exist, a lone champion standing between the white city of democracy and the terrorists, despots, barbarians, and other enemies of civilization. One cannot, at once, claim to be superhuman and then plead mortal error. I propose to take our countrymen's claims of American exceptionalism seriously, which is to say I propose subjecting our country to an exceptional moral standard. This is difficult because there exists, all around us, an apparatus urging us to accept American innocence at face value and not to inquire too much. And it is so easy to look away, to live with the fruits of our history and to ignore the great evil done in all of our names.
This passage is also an important commentary on US foreign policy: "it shows why domestic policy and foreign policy are intertwined, even if we often compartmentalize them."

The Great Police Riot of 2020: "the police aren't just rioting against accountability, they are rejecting the right of the people to hold them accountable outright."

This Upheaval Is How America Gets Better: "White Americans are being challenged to accept responsibility for allowing black Americans to live in fear of police brutality. This raising of consciousness will change the U.S. as a country, and well it should."

I'm just amazed: "How does the GOP think they have a future decades down the line? Get 80% of white voters?"

Give us democracy back: "Mitch McConnell is blocking legislation passed by House Dems to restore the VRA"

NEWS: "McConnell says he will not address any more COVID relief until 2nd half of July. Plans to use threat of expiration of unemployment to push Democrats into a deal."

Amy McGrath Takes Narrow Lead Over Mitch McConnell in Kentucky Senate Race, Poll Shows: "Oh sweet baby Jesus let this be true. You can make it more likely by donating to the @AmyMcGrathKY campaign. Pass this on!"
posted by kliuless at 3:11 AM on June 10, 2020 [22 favorites]


Every time I hear about the death of the Republican party, they seem to come back stronger than before (while holding even less of a majority). Maybe that 'less of a majority' will finally undo them. Mostly, I'm wondering how much of a bubble is my close-at-hand world and how I'll do if my neighbors turn on me.
posted by kokaku at 3:23 AM on June 10, 2020 [8 favorites]


Those paying close attention know that trump's victory is Pyrrhic. Trump has accomplished nothing during his term and his rhetoric has helped to rapidly accelerate leftward swings in public opinion across the board. He's not a proof of concept. He's a last, angry gasp.

That sounds like it's leaping to a big assumption, that of the arc of history bending towards justice.
posted by acb at 4:21 AM on June 10, 2020 [8 favorites]


I enjoyed this. But it makes me think more about the strange relationship between history and narrative than it does about how it applies to current affairs...

Don't get me wrong, the story makes sense, and right now I believe every word. But as a non-historian, I've heard a bunch of other stories that explained the same outcomes just as believably, relying on equally solid facts that, let's say, don't entirely overlap... E.g. was it (God help me) Dan Carlin, who at one point briefly convinced me that everybody collectively set up the dominoes, and it would have taken a genius (or a Bismarck, which Wilhelm was not) to find a way out?

The problem with applying a good narrative to current affairs, then, is that there are a bunch of them, and they all apply in some way... picking one, a lot of the time, will be based on what we already believe, which I think is worth keeping in mind.
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 4:33 AM on June 10, 2020 [5 favorites]


When did Stern write this?
posted by hototogisu at 5:07 AM on June 10, 2020 [3 favorites]


Trump has accomplished nothing during his term ...

This is completely false. He hasn't accomplished anything good, but the damage he's done, which he and his supporters consider accomplishments, is incalculable. I'm getting tired of listing all the things he's made shittier. Stop paying attention to his stupid tweets and thinking he's been ineffective. The effects of his administration have been devastating to the progress we made since 1930.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 5:33 AM on June 10, 2020 [27 favorites]


"That sounds like it's leaping to a big assumption, that of the arc of history bending towards justice."

Perhaps the assumption is not that of the arc of history, but the arc of people acting in their own collective interest. The last time we had such a profound shift in leftward opinion was during the Great Depression, and from that shift we got The New Deal, including Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, and a host of other things that made life in America much better. We got a very real redistribution of the polarization of income, which restored cash flow through the economy. We also got a strong labor movement. None of these were as clear cut as I am stating here but they did happen, and people were arguably better for the result. What we didn't get was inclusion of POC in the power structure. They still got not only excluded but oppressed. Now we just might have a chance to do it all over again and this time POC can benefit from some very teachable moments for white people where it is being realized just how badly they have been treated and excluded.

I am cautious but pretty optimistic about this. I was alive and conscious during the 60s, and have studied the New Deal years enough to have a good understanding of the history and events to know that out of turmoil can come some pretty great things. There is potential in all this. Most of us just haven't seen real profound change of that magnitude in our lives, so it is distant to us. But there is some very real possibility here for a rebirth of our system and a resumption of the progress we made back then.
posted by cybrcamper at 5:40 AM on June 10, 2020 [5 favorites]


> "How does the GOP think they have a future decades down the line? Get 80% of white voters?"

I don’t know about decades, but in the short to mid-term? Guns, and all the judges that a lot of people leave out or seem to forget when they talk about how little Trump has accomplished. It seems obvious to me that a lot of Republicans are just itching for the moment when they can fully drop even the pretence of being a party working within a democratic system.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:18 AM on June 10, 2020 [9 favorites]


As goes California, so goes the nation.

Trump has turned the country decisively against not just Trumpism, but conservatism in general -- and radically accelerated all of the leftward cultural trends that the right initially feared.

Early on in the current administration I read several California observers who compared that election hopefully to the Golden State's experience. Pete Wilson, the last Republican governor, approved of anti-immigrant and tough-on-crime legislation, and Californians at that point became so tired of Republicans and their old-white-guy rhetoric that there was a state-wide Blue shift in the next election, a trend which continues, and is spreading.
posted by Rash at 8:20 AM on June 10, 2020 [2 favorites]


Pete Wilson, the last Republican governor

Schwarzenegger was the last Republican governor of California.
posted by jedicus at 8:30 AM on June 10, 2020 [5 favorites]


Right you are, but he wasn't really part of the Republican machine.

Here's one of those articles, from 2017: Why California Politics Is Always 15 Years Ahead -- The Remarkably Prescient 15 Year Rule Means Trump & the National Republicans are on the Verge of a Spectacular Collapse.
posted by Rash at 9:15 AM on June 10, 2020 [4 favorites]


kleinsteradikaleminderheit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock

Tetlock has done a lot of work on how people can make better predictions.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:25 AM on June 10, 2020 [1 favorite]


The world wants America to be the nation it promised to be back in the 20th century

Fool me once...

I think Kleinster... is right that the idea of fascism in this country being 'on the verge' of anything but more fascism is a weird gluttony of hubris by the left.

The founders were bucking the most oppressive colonizers in history and only won because they got to be on the right side of a land war in asia. The civil war was actually very close to going the other way and was basically won by industrial superiority. Ditto WW2 (and we should all know the term premature antifascist). The new deal was accomplished only in contrast to the US going communist (and there was still an attempt at a corporate military coup). The postwar dividend of 50s-60s america was only accomplished because everyone understood that the returning labor force knew all how to operate an M1. (Any leader asking that this dividend be shared with women or blacks was shot.)

Now we're in a biological climate that forces diminishing returns to mass protest and the guns are in the wrong half of the population.

It's sad, but I wouldn't bet against the black shirts right now.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 12:25 PM on June 10, 2020


Early on in the current administration I read several California observers who compared that election hopefully to the Golden State's experience. Pete Wilson, the last Republican governor, approved of anti-immigrant and tough-on-crime legislation, and Californians at that point became so tired of Republicans and their old-white-guy rhetoric that there was a state-wide Blue shift in the next election, a trend which continues, and is spreading.

Yeah, people seem to think CA has been some sort of socialist wasteland/paradise (depending on your politics!) since its founding in 1850, but we were pretty conservative all the way up to when Wilson aggressively courted the racist vote by wrapping himself in Prop 187. 25 years later the CA GOP might as well not even exist. Their last gasp was ginned up outrage over a gas tax that was supposed to get their voters to the polls in 2018, but that failed and CA is bluer than ever.
posted by sideshow at 12:50 PM on June 10, 2020 [3 favorites]


I wouldn't bet against the black shirts right now.

Oh, they're showing up. And it's brown shirts, no?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:06 PM on June 10, 2020


I wouldn't bet against the black shirts right now.

Oh, they're showing up. And it's brown shirts, no?
Both, really- Mussolini's blackshirts (or those of Mosley's British Union of Fascists) or the SA brownshirts.
posted by heteronym at 7:04 PM on June 10, 2020 [2 favorites]


Both, really- Mussolini's blackshirts (or those of Mosley's British Union of Fascists) or the SA brownshirts.

Or, closer to home, Pelley's Silver Shirts.
posted by non canadian guy at 9:21 PM on June 10, 2020 [1 favorite]


This was good. Wilhelm can absolutely be understood as a Trump like personality, something that didn't occur to me earlier. I think this is a bit unfair to Wilhelm's performance, though mostly due to the nature of the institutions around him.

Niptick from the article: Wilhelm II dismissed Bismarck—the nation’s later idol, a prudent diplomat in European affairs, and a fierce enemy of democratic reform at home. Bismarck was clever as hell, brilliant at responding to quickly evolving situations, and successful, but "prudent" seems wrong. The two big wars he started (against France and Austria) were gambles. He manipulated events to get the odds on Germany's side but the downside risks were big.

I've heard a bunch of other stories that explained the same outcomes just as believably, relying on equally solid facts that, let's say, don't entirely overlap . . . E.g. was it (God help me) Dan Carlin, who at one point briefly convinced me that everybody collectively set up the dominoes, and it would have taken a genius (or a Bismarck, which Wilhelm was not) to find a way out?

One thing I like about this is it doesn't weigh in too heavily on the "cause" of the war. There were a lot of competing factions within each government and they all produced a big paper trail, so it's relatively easy to string together "non-overlapping" narratives that have strong documentary evidence behind them to quote. Which of course means a great many historians have done exactly that.

Carlin (or whoever) is correct that there were a lot of "dominoes" lined up to fall, but it's also true that there were a lot of places to intervene and stop the chain. The years in which there were major crises that didn't lead to war before 1914 include 1905, 1908 and 1912 (at a minimum, I'm a layman and rusty on this topic.) There was no particular reason this fuse couldn't be put out as well.

The article's claims that Wilhelm made it worse are uncontroversial though. Germany's foreign service bureaucracy was as competent and rational as any country in Europe but Wilhelm flitted back and forth between goals. He did a lot to alienate other countries for no particular reason. His telegram to the Boers is the classic example, but the Moroccan crises have similar qualities. These didn't just leave Germany isolated but soured international opinion, which *was* important here. This continued through his final pre-war act, a final frantic attempt to stop the war--ignored by his generals at the very end--which was a very Trumpian lack of nerve, a bully backing down when faced with consequences.
posted by mark k at 7:34 PM on June 11, 2020 [3 favorites]


A good sketch of Wilhelm II.
(I do wonder about the use of Jacques Callot's 1633 image as one half of the illustrations. There are plenty of war horror images from WWI to use)

Wilhelm was a shambolic ruler, lurching across nations with bombast and mistakes. Far more aggressive foreign policy than Trump's, though.
posted by doctornemo at 8:18 AM on June 16, 2020


hototogisu: When did Stern write this?

According to this blog it appeared in the winter 2008 issue.
posted by Kattullus at 11:02 AM on June 17, 2020


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