The virtual political convention you've all been waiting for
August 23, 2020 2:17 PM   Subscribe

You probably missed it in June, so here is a replay of 3 hours of political debate to get you familiar with the candidates. Or, if that's too much, here's a written introduction to them, including the first Black woman to run for Tory leadership in Canada. Yes, it's time for Canadian Conservatives to choose a new leader, after the last one didn't work out. All of the votes in the ranked ballot, points-per-riding contest have been cast, and the results will be revealed starting at 5:30pm EDT tonight. CPAC stream, CBC stream, Global News live blog.
posted by clawsoon (151 comments total) 8 users marked this as a favorite
 
Thanks for posting! I’m not conservative, but I’ve been following this race all year.
posted by Valancy Rachel at 2:24 PM on August 23


I found this interview with a couple of Canadian Conservative Muslim activists interesting. They're a rare breed after the anti-Muslim fiasco of the Conservative's 2015 campaign.
posted by clawsoon at 2:37 PM on August 23


I have been not following this, like, at all, just assuming that Peter Mackay would win be default, but it seems like it's more of a contest than I would have expected.
posted by jacquilynne at 3:06 PM on August 23


"Results delayed"? But I want to know if Evil Jim Gaffigan or Slimy Guy Who Was Considered The Hot Conservative Politician Because That Bar Is So Very Low has won NOW
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 3:16 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


They're a rare breed after the anti-Muslim fiasco of the Conservative's 2015 campaign.

It's important to remember that despite all of the "barbaric cultural practices" bullshit that the Conservatives pulled, people like Jason Kenney (when he was a Harper cabinet minister) made significant progress in reaching out to non-Christian social conservatives. He and Harper both knew that leveraging homophobia and transphobia was an ace strategy on that front.

And judging by this pack of screeching bigots in the leadership race, they've taken that lesson on board.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:18 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


people like Jason Kenney (when he was a Harper cabinet minister) made significant progress in reaching out to non-Christian social conservatives.

Yeah, what was the inside story of that U-turn? A decade building up a coalition with small-c conservative immigrant suburbanites that allowed them to win multiple elections without needing the rarely-achieved alliance between Quebec and Alberta that got Diefenbaker and Mulroney elected; then they throw it all away by turning on a significant chunk of those communities. Did they think that they could finesse anti-Muslim sentiment apart from anti-PoC sentiment and still win those suburbs? Did they think that they had a chance to win Quebec back given the strong anti-Muslim sentiment there? Or was the racist pressure from the bottom just too strong for Harper and Kenney to keep a lid on it for any longer?

What were they thinking?
posted by clawsoon at 3:29 PM on August 23


Did they think that they had a chance to win Quebec back given the strong anti-Muslim sentiment there?

I feel like that was a part of it. And yeah, it may have been a symptom of Harper's highly-disciplined control over who-said-what-about-any-issue slipping as people started jockeying for position in the event he lost the election. I feel like he would have squashed that as a non-starter four or five years earlier.

On the lighter side, CPAC's Conservative Leadership and Conventions: 1867-2020 timeline seems to indicate that the era of epic sideburns ended with Robert Borden.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:37 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


On the lighter side, CPAC's Conservative Leadership and Conventions: 1867-2020 timeline seems to indicate that the era of epic sideburns ended with Robert Borden.

Wow, Mackenzie King buried some of those leaders so deep in the footnotes of Canadian history that I've never heard of them even though I'm pretty sure I've read about them. Robert Manion? Richard Hanson? John Bracken? George Drew?
posted by clawsoon at 3:48 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]




then they throw it all away by turning on a significant chunk of those communities

I'm too lazy to look it up but did it really hurt the Conservatives that much, or was that pointed at as a reason by a lot of people saying 'Of *course* it cost them, because as we all know, Canada is so not racist.'? I guess one way to figure it would be to check the 2015 returns for ridings with large Muslim, South Asian, and Middle Eastern communities, but as we've established, I am just too lazy.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 3:52 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


The quickest research-ish I can do is to look at the 2011 and 2015 maps. Suburban Vancouver and Greater Toronto definitely flipped from Tory blue to Liberal red. Those ridings seem to be the ones with the highest percentage of visible minorities according to the table in this article. But was it fear of Conservative anti-immigrant sentiment which flipped those ridings? I dunno. Seems like a reasonable possibility, but hard to tell without more research.
posted by clawsoon at 4:06 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


But was it fear of Conservative anti-immigrant sentiment which flipped those ridings? I dunno. Seems like a reasonable possibility, but hard to tell without more research.

Never discount the "Eh, need a change" type voting with any long-serving government filtered through the distortions of first-past-the-post.

At least, that's my low-effort political science thesis for the evening that I've typed up while carmelizing some onions.

*pours glass of wine*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:10 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


In which Diefenbaker looks surprised.

C.D. Howe not looking surprised enough.
posted by clawsoon at 4:17 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


C.D. Howe not looking surprised enough.

"Daddy, the Minister of Reconstruction is scaring me."

"I know. He's just always upset about something."

"About what?"

"We're not sure. It's been a tough few years for all of us. Now go to bed. I won't let him in."

"Promise?"

"Promise."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:25 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


lol! And they say that the American politics thread are constantly re-hashing old fights.
posted by clawsoon at 4:27 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


Don't get me started on the Château Clique.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:28 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Now I'm watching old Dief documentaries because they said the results are going to be delayed.
posted by clawsoon at 4:32 PM on August 23


As an American, I'm only excited if either Doug Ford or Kevin O'Leary of Shark Tank get the nod.

Did the Dragon's Den host Mr. Sunshine ever run?
posted by Apocryphon at 4:32 PM on August 23


No, but Kevin O'Leary and his wife drunkenly killed two people with a boat.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:41 PM on August 23 [5 favorites]


Now I'm just dying to know who made the call to have smaller, cheaper-to-mail envelopes that rip in the envelope-opening machines. I mean, seriously, they saved a few pennies per ballot, but they have cast doubt on the legitimacy of the count. Why does this sound like such a perfect Conservative metaphor?
posted by sardonyx at 4:50 PM on August 23 [5 favorites]


"The Conservative Party of Canada can't even run their own leadership election, what makes them think they can run a country? They're just not ready."
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 5:04 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Best Scheer burns I've heard tonight:

"His legacy - if he has any legacy..."

"a guy who is so lame he thought that lying about being an insurance broker would make him more cool"
posted by clawsoon at 5:06 PM on August 23 [7 favorites]


From the Global live blog:

Meanwhile, here’s a look at the ballot vault from two days ago.

This footage was recorded and featured on the Conservatives’ Twitch account.

The party has had a record turnout — nearly 175,000 ballots were received.


But apparently you can see the ballot vault on Twitch, which is just an empty, dark room (presumably the counting is taking place elsewhere at the moment), with a power bar or UPS flashing in the background. Also a metaphor, maybe.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:17 PM on August 23


My bad. It looks like that Twitch feed starts way back, and you can move foward through time.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:19 PM on August 23


This speech about Scheer is... untrue. I thought We agreed he wasn’t a great leader? He was ousted, right?
posted by Valancy Rachel at 5:40 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Is Scheer stuck in some kind of time warp? I mean he's going on and about the Berlin Wall? And talking down government? During a pandemic? When government money is probably the only thing that is keeping a huge pile of people and businesses afloat.
posted by sardonyx at 5:55 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


We agreed he wasn’t a great leader? He was ousted, right?

Now that the knives have been cleaned, in preparation for the next sacrifice, it is safe to praise him before burial.
posted by nubs at 6:00 PM on August 23 [5 favorites]


Judy Manning: "Newfoundland and Labrador, the Far East of our Western World."

What the actual fuck?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:11 PM on August 23 [8 favorites]


Lisa Raitt deftly pivots from the Portapique massacre to FACEBOOK KITCHEN PARTY. Fucking sociopath.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:19 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Can’t watch for health reasons but enjoying the convention vicariously through your reactions.
posted by rodlymight at 6:25 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Lisa Raitt deftly pivots from the Portapique massacre to FACEBOOK KITCHEN PARTY. Fucking sociopath.

And she's one of the likable ones.

At this point I think the machines caught on fire and all the ballots burned so they are just gonna vamp until everyone falls asleep
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 6:28 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


At this point I think the machines caught on fire and all the ballots burned so they are just gonna vamp until everyone falls asleep

They keep talking about the balloon drop they can't do because it's not in-person, but maybe that's code for whippets?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:31 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]




Isn't the CBC going to need to cut to a hockey game soon? That would be the ultimate finishing touch.
posted by nubs at 6:36 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


On a non-cynical note, watching virtual conventions (not just this one) is way better in terms of getting through stuff faster.

This would have been over by puck drop if it weren't for the balloting snafu.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:37 PM on August 23


The comment about Newfoundland being the ” far east of the Western world" was taken directly from a provincial tourism ad. I believe it ran in the 90s maybe?
posted by peppermind at 6:43 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Ah.

Newfoundland is unabashedly peddled as "The Far East of the Western World" (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador), and the people are coupled with the land so that they become unchanging and exotic. Despite a history of struggling to wrestle a living out of the land and ocean, Newfoundlanders are promoted as authentic, natural fisher-poets through festivals and pageants in which Newfoundland "culture" is paraded before paying customers.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:47 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


I mean, it's still an erasure of colonialism and weirdly Orientalist. But I guess the people it was meant to appeal to would still find it "exotic."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:49 PM on August 23


I don't disagree at all, just providing a little context.
posted by peppermind at 6:51 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


No worries. Thanks for giving that context. Hearing it in the flow of the other, uh, remarks delivered so far tonight was jarring. Not the most jarring thing, mind you (!!!).

I mean, now a sweaty and twitchy man (Alex Nuttall, MacKay's campaign manager) is talking about the "breakthrough for social conservatives."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:58 PM on August 23


Did the O'Toole guy say that O'Toole is a bit "Latin"?
posted by clawsoon at 7:00 PM on August 23


I detest the Conservatives but appreciate this entertaining thread. Also, much to my own surprise, I am actually curious about which jerk from the pack of screeching bigots (thank you mandolin conspiracy) will win the leadership race.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 7:06 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Did the O'Toole guy say that O'Toole is a bit "Latin"?

Didn't hear that, but I'm watching O'Toole's guy on the CPAC feed, and he just said "Uh, I'm not a big policy guy..." in response to a question about climate change...
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:09 PM on August 23


"Stephen Outhouse, campaign manager for Leslyn Lewis."

Look, nobody gets to pick their birth surname, but he's actively campaigning for someone who's an outspoken homophobe and transphobe, so fuck this guy.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:18 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]




Michelle Rempel is now talking about the "firearms community" in Canada.

I didn't know firearms could vote. I have learned much.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:45 PM on August 23 [5 favorites]


Mackenzie King buried some of those leaders so deep in the footnotes of Canadian history that I've never heard of them even though I'm pretty sure I've read about them. Robert Manion? Richard Hanson? John Bracken? George Drew?

In contrast, before the Dion-Ignatieff Technocrat Two-Step, you have to go back to Edward Blake to find a Liberal leader who did not become PM, and he stepped down in 1887. He was up against Sir John A., so maybe we can cut him some slack.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:55 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Breaking news! Two people were tired of the room they were sitting in.
posted by clawsoon at 7:57 PM on August 23


In all seriousness, though, that Twitch stream. Here's where some of that ballot damage came from....

...watch these male fucksticks on the left-hand side of the screen try to operate an automatic envelope slicer. [link goes to the timestamp]

Oh, boys. Ever work an admin job or in a mailroom? No? Mommy and daddy paid for everything so you never had to.

So you think you can just jam a fistful of envelopes into it rather than finessing them in one at a time and develop a flow, working fast without fucking up the contents of the envelope.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:59 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


mandolin conspiracy: Oh, boys. Ever work an admin job or in a mailroom? No? Mommy and daddy paid for everything so you never had to.

To be fair, I've never even seen an automatic envelope slicer before, and I've done an office job for 20 years now.
posted by clawsoon at 8:06 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


They're big in cheque processing -- or were -- back when that was more of thing.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:09 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


And the consequences for fucking up an incoming cheque...hoo boy.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:10 PM on August 23


CPC Envelope Opening Machine Twitter account.
posted by clawsoon at 8:24 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


FIFTEEN MINUTE WARNING.

On the CBC coverage, Althia Raj made jokes about doing a coffee run to stay up, and Andrew Coyne pulled a sour face. This confirms my long-standing belief he is a man with no anus.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:31 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


The truth is he's mostly anus
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 8:38 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


Man these CBC commentators are getting punchy.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:51 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


"...but he's actively campaigning for someone who's an outspoken homophobe and transphobe, so fuck this guy."

I didn't pay the slightest bit of attention to this race, and was sorta rooting for Lewis by default, but yeah -- no thanks.

Give me Peter Mackay again, just so I can have another five years of the photo of him looking glum with his dog.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:55 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


"Final regional calculations"... somebody's going to screw this up in Excel, aren't they? Excel probably thinks that "Leslyn" is a date and is mangling the results as I type.
posted by clawsoon at 8:57 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


From the CBC:
Derek Sloan

Sloan is an Ontario MP who attended law school at Queen's University after owning and operating several small businesses. The social conservative has denounced what he calls the erosion of free speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of conscience in Canada, and the "politically correct culture." He has said he would rescind the carbon tax and gun ban and pull Canada out of World Health Organization.
“My name is Derek Sloan and I get my talking points from Jordan Peterson.”

Tonight when I was talking to my dad he referred to Sloan as “the really awful guy.” Heh.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 8:58 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


"Final regional calculations"... somebody's going to screw this up in Excel, aren't they? Excel probably thinks that "Leslyn" is a date and is mangling the results as I type.

Good thing there's not a candidate named "Jan."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:02 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


Dear god, this still isn't over? I'm glad I just sat and watched Knives Out instead.
posted by nubs at 9:05 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


“My name is Derek Sloan and I get my talking points from Jordan Peterson.”

"The female principle is Chaotic, therefore I have been training to dropkick Elizabeth May."
posted by clawsoon at 9:11 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


I'm glad I just sat and watched Knives Out instead.

*air guitar*

Uh, that might be a bit on the nose, given some of the candidates...
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:12 PM on August 23


Dear god, this still isn't over? I'm glad I just sat and watched Knives Out instead.

I was going to vacuum and then finish the second season of Fargo. Now it's 11PM and I don't want to vacuum but I also don't want to push the desk back into place.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:15 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Man these CBC commentators are getting punchy.

Heh. They've gone from that to "ARE YOUR FUCKING KIDDING ME" mode.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:17 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


The "welcome to our second day of coverage" line was pretty funny.
posted by bcd at 9:19 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


The truth is he's mostly anus

45 minutes since the 15 minute warning.
posted by clawsoon at 9:19 PM on August 23


Maintenant...les resultats...
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:22 PM on August 23


Andrew Coyne @acoyne·11m
45 minutes since the 15 minute warning.

Will__Murray @Will__Murray·8m
Replying to @acoyne
The 30 minute difference is for Newfoundland.

posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 9:24 PM on August 23 [12 favorites]


I haven't been keeping a running tally, but it certainly feels as if MacKay is building up enough of a lead to possibly take it on the first ballot.
posted by sardonyx at 9:30 PM on August 23


Are there no news websites doing a running tally?
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:30 PM on August 23


Candace, you need to iron your flag before you tack it onto your wall. It looks really bad with the fold creases evident. There is no reason to have been this lazy for your big, national convention.
posted by sardonyx at 9:33 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Not seeing one. Part of the reason might be that the results have been referred to the provincial delegates to read off right now. Ontario (last one) up now.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:33 PM on August 23


Candace, you need to iron your flag before you tack it onto your wall.

And she had 3 hours!
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:35 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Sloan is doan.
posted by clawsoon at 9:35 PM on August 23


Second ballot won't give a winner either, will it?
posted by clawsoon at 9:36 PM on August 23


Okay, I was wrong. It's not going to be over on the first ballot. Sadly, I've got to pack it in for the night.
posted by sardonyx at 9:37 PM on August 23


First round:

The first ballot results give MacKay 33.52 per cent, with O'Toole close behind with 31.6 per cent. Leslyn Lewis took 20.49 while Derek Sloan took 14.39 per cent.

The race now moves to a second ballot without Sloan.

posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:41 PM on August 23


I was gonna dunk on her flag, but then I thought about all the things I've learned on Metafilter about how women are judged on appearances in ways that men aren't. It wasn't the worst of the backgrounds, though it was the worst of the best.
posted by clawsoon at 9:41 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Hmm, CBC stream stopped for me. I wonder if they never expected it to last this long.
posted by bcd at 9:43 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Did the CBC YouTube stream just die for anybody else?
posted by clawsoon at 9:43 PM on August 23


I was gonna dunk on her flag, but then I thought about all the things I've learned on Metafilter about how women are judged on appearances in ways that men aren't. It wasn't the worst of the backgrounds, though it was the worst of the best.

Cory Teneycke's living room is predictably beige, to match his serial killer eyes.

Did the CBC YouTube stream just die for anybody else?

Yup.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:44 PM on August 23


The CBC logo bug is still there in the corner - appears they are 'streaming', but the incoming feed from the studio dropped.

And there it's back.
posted by bcd at 9:45 PM on August 23


Newfoundland is unabashedly peddled as "The Far East of the Western World" (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador), and the people are coupled with the land so that they become unchanging and exotic. Despite a history of struggling to wrestle a living out of the land and ocean, Newfoundlanders are promoted as authentic, natural fisher-poets through festivals and pageants in which Newfoundland "culture" is paraded before paying customers.

Oh in that case, perhaps they should be free to have their own sovereignty as an independent country again.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:51 PM on August 23


I think virtually all of Sloan's votes have to go to Lewis for her to stay past the second round. Seems unlikely.
posted by clawsoon at 9:52 PM on August 23


I was thinking that MacKay would be a lot further ahead as he would be more palatable to non-conservative voters, so I'm honestly surprised to see O'Toole so close - of course, I'm not Conservative and I'm thinking who would have the best shot in a federal election, not who jibes with the membership. I'm guessing Sloan's votes will go to O'Toole, but that would still require a third round, yes?
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:53 PM on August 23


Hm. So now it's down to how much the party hates LGBTQ people, and how much they want to wipe out reproductive rights for women. That's the work they want to do.

Alright, then. Allons-y, motherfuckers.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:56 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


I was thinking that MacKay would be a lot further ahead as he would be more palatable to non-conservative voters

The Conservative base doesn't vote with an eye to who will appeal to people who are less like them. They vote for the person who will best represent their increasingly backward views on a national stage. Not a single person voted for Andrew Scheer because they thought he could beat Trudeau.
posted by dry white toast at 9:57 PM on August 23 [9 favorites]


Not to mention a class war on the poor, clearly stated in all of their platforms.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:58 PM on August 23 [4 favorites]


"I hope they come out and give us the second ballot... BECAUSE THEY OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT"
posted by clawsoon at 9:59 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Rosemary Barton is not having it. YOU HAVE THE RESULTS THEY WERE ALL COUNTED AT ONCE. THAT'S HOW A RANKED BALLOT WORKS.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:02 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


My math says Lewis would need 77% of Sloan's second place votes, even if O'Toole got 0% of them. Earlier we hear someone say she had around 63%. Seems pretty much all over there - and so pretty likely O'Toole beats MacCay firmly in the third round.
posted by bcd at 10:03 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


In my headcanon they're now rapidly altering them to try to make McKay win.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:03 PM on August 23


The thing you have to remember about becoming Prime Minister (or Premier of a province) is it is not a function of how qualified you are or how broad your policies appeal. You form a government by standing around and waiting for the person in power to become so thoroughly disliked that the voters pick you just to give the incumbent the heave-ho. Jean Chretien was not well thought of. People just wanted to tear the PCs limb from limb. Doug Ford was never popular. But he became Premier because people were just done with Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal Party.

That's why Trudeau is moving Freeland to the front; so he can seamlessly hand the party over to her before the country fully turns on him.

And it may be all whoever comes out of this needs.
posted by dry white toast at 10:06 PM on August 23 [7 favorites]


Well that went fast.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:06 PM on August 23


Well, appears my prediction held up - for the whopping three minutes required.
posted by bcd at 10:06 PM on August 23


That blue-blazer lady was obviously an O'Toole stan.

Also everyone at this O'Toole party hugging each other is going to get Covid, it's making me cringe.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:07 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


O'Toole.

Put on some masks, you fucking idiots.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:08 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


Also everyone at this O'Toole party hugging each other is going to get Covid, it's making me cringe.

Just lock them in the building. Let them die before they can gut our health care system.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:09 PM on August 23 [7 favorites]


Lewis came surprisingly close. Ten or twelve ridings worth of points away from making the third ballot, if I'm remembering the numbers correctly.
posted by clawsoon at 10:09 PM on August 23


That's why Trudeau is moving Freeland to the front; so he can seamlessly hand the party over to her before the country fully turns on him.

Not the worst move. Maybe he's seeing the writing on the wall.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:11 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


He saw what happened to Wynne.
posted by dry white toast at 10:13 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Chrystia Freeland would be a pretty good PM. She's smarter than Trudeau. Imagine if he'd also kept Jody Wilson-Raybould around. And maybe spent more time listening to people (like JWR) telling him: "No. I'm protecting you. This is good advice."

Then we wouldn't be so worried about these here shitheads.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:21 PM on August 23 [6 favorites]


Also everyone at this O'Toole party hugging each other is going to get Covid, it's making me cringe.

Oh. And on that tip, good screen cap here: Proud Boy in the room.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:29 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


That's why Trudeau is moving Freeland to the front; so he can seamlessly hand the party over to her before the country fully turns on him.

I agree. It always mystified me that Harper, for all his purported political canniness, never really hit on the idea of a goat to shove out front when things got really bad and he headed for the airport. Trudeau the Elder left John Turner to take the heat; Mulroney left Campbell; Chretien left Martin (who actually survived the next election). The man in the blue suit never had much of a bench. I always reckoned the most likely heir apparent was Kenney, but he paddled for the shallow end when he saw his likely future role as goat.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 10:39 PM on August 23


Give me Peter Mackay again, just so I can have another five years of the photo of him looking glum with his [borrowed] dog
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:40 PM on August 23 [3 favorites]


Who really is Erin O’Toole? - a Maclean's portrait from last month.
posted by clawsoon at 10:47 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]




In 1995, during his first posting in Trenton, O’Toole took his leave to volunteer on his father’s campaign in the Ontario election. John O’Toole would serve as Durham’s MPP for 19 years. From his next posting in Winnipeg, Erin enjoyed coming home to hear political war stories. It planted a seed. “I did like the partisan cut-and-thrust, but I also loved that you could really make a difference,” he says.

He finished his active military service in 2000, joining the reserve and attending law school at Dalhousie University. Eventually, he and his wife, Rebecca, who he met during his final military posting in Nova Scotia, moved to Ontario. O’Toole worked for two law firms on Bay Street. Rebecca, they both admit, had the “fun jobs,” working for Hockey Canada, the Toronto Argonauts and the Olympic broadcasting consortium. After the Bay Street gigs, O’Toole took a job as a corporate lawyer at Procter & Gamble. During the same period, he founded a veterans’ charity, True Patriot Love.


If you want a recipe for "shitty Ontario douchebag," this is it.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:59 PM on August 23 [5 favorites]


All of which is to say: this guy is trouble, and he's electable.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:01 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


So we'll see each other in 18-24 for months for the next one, no? Hopefully this one won't be run by Muppet Labs.
posted by bonehead at 11:01 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Although you've got to admit "True Patriot Love" could be a very good time with the right people.
posted by clawsoon at 11:02 PM on August 23


Okay, this surprised me: Did you know that Erin O'Toole is almost 2 years younger than Justin Trudeau?

That is actually surprising.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:07 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


All of which is to say: this guy is trouble, and he's electable.

Yeah, he's not unreasonable. I was partly hoping MacKay would win because it would be divisive within the party (Especially after the delays).

So we'll see each other in 18-24 for months for the next one, no?

He has a shot if he can keep the chimps on a short leash a la Harper or if Trudeau decides to keep fucking up.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:15 PM on August 23


That is actually surprising.

I think I've heard it 3 times now and been surprised each time.
posted by clawsoon at 11:23 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


If anyone can track down provincial results for the second and third rounds, I'd be interested in poring over the tea leaves.
posted by clawsoon at 11:26 PM on August 23


Full results here, at least for now.

In the second round, Lewis won BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba - a full sweep of the west. Mackay won Newfoundland, PEI, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick - a sweep of the Atlantic provinces - along with Ontario and the Territories. The only province that O'Toole won in the second round was Quebec.

In the third round, O'Toole took everything but PEI, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
posted by clawsoon at 11:41 PM on August 23 [2 favorites]


And here's the 340 page riding-by-riding PDF.
posted by clawsoon at 11:47 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Thanks for the original post, clawsoon. And thanks for the balloting results roundup.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:54 PM on August 23 [1 favorite]


Scanning through the riding results, the lowest turnout looks to be all in Quebec, with 28 votes cast in the Bourassa riding - and thus over 3 points per vote - at the extreme. O'Toole's efforts in Quebec really paid off for him. Lewis bombed in Quebec, and that may be the reason she's not the leader today. Impossible to tell without knowing the second choices of MacKay voters, of course.

Alberta was, unsurprisingly, at the other extreme, with 2,079 votes cast in the Foothills riding, or about .05 points per vote.

I'm sure Éric Grenier will have some much better analysis in the morning, since that's his job. Or... it will be, anyway, until O'Toole carries through on his threat to defund the CBC.
posted by clawsoon at 12:15 AM on August 24




One more before I convince myself to sleep.

This part was appreciated:
"I believe that whether you are Black, white, brown or from any race or creed, whether you are LGBT or straight, whether you are an Indigenous Canadian or have joined the Canadian family three weeks ago or three generations ago," he said.

"Whether you're doing well or barely getting by. Whether you worship on Friday, Saturday, Sunday or not at all … you are an important part of Canada and you have a home in the Conservative Party of Canada."
Let's hope he means all that.
posted by clawsoon at 12:32 AM on August 24 [2 favorites]


I would love to feel that hope, clawsoon, but I’m more inclined to agree with Pam Palmater:

“It doesn't matter who wins Conservative leadership race - they are all nightmares for First Nations, the environment and public safety. They speak as much with their platforms as with their silence.”
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 1:14 AM on August 24 [7 favorites]


I see from the news that the toilet flushed incompletely again and the floatiest turds just won't go down.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:58 AM on August 24 [1 favorite]


This would be much less worrisome if the sitting government wasn't madly kicking own goals into the net over and over right now.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:22 AM on August 24 [7 favorites]


Thanks for posting this, clawsoon. I enjoyed being able to follow along with the comments as the convention was...not progressing. It's a shame the DNC thread didn't turn out more like this one, where we were able to talk about what was (or wasn't) going on and not rehash old political arguments.

dry white toast, you're not the only person to see the writing on the wall for Freeland. The minute she took the finance position she became the fall guy for all of the government's problems, and especially it's economic ones. She's definitely on the path to being the Kim Campbell of the day. It would be nice to see her evade that fate, and so far she has done a good job of getting the most out of tricky positions that could have been very damaging for her career. Maybe she'll survive again.
posted by sardonyx at 6:47 AM on August 24 [5 favorites]


This would be much less worrisome if the sitting government wasn't madly kicking own goals into the net over and over right now.

Srsly. Trudeau has completely failed to internalize that we're a country who forced a cabinet minister to resign over a $16 glass of orange juice. If O'Toole can convince the country that his party isn't homophobic and sexist and racist - and maybe even if he can't do that - he'll have a pretty good chance, given all the Liberal own goals.

I'm guessing that the next own goal will be putting a poison pill into the throne speech for the New Democrats and forcing an election, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the Liberals are ahead in the polls because their Covid-19 response looks okay next to the complete shitshow in the US, and Canadians will be, like, "WTF, don't call an election during a pandemic if you don't have to, get out."
posted by clawsoon at 7:07 AM on August 24 [2 favorites]


where we were able to talk about what was (or wasn't) going on and not rehash old political arguments.

I'm still up for a fight about Dief.

I see that O'Toole has adopted the Rick Mercer vigorous walk-and-rant for at least one of his campaign ads. Do politicians in other countries do that, too, or is it something that'd look weird to anybody but Canadians?
posted by clawsoon at 7:11 AM on August 24 [1 favorite]


Rick Mercer should sue.
posted by jb at 7:58 AM on August 24


I couldn't stomach to follow the event too closely last night. I had been listening to the CBC Radio call in show while doing the dishes and it did me in (this song kind of reflects my sentiments). I had to stop yelling at the radio for the sake of my and my family's sanity (we watched Starship Invasions, a Canadian Star Wars rip off from the Tax Shelter Years, instead). So it has been a delight to read through Mefites' comments on the proceedings.

The contest was always going to be Mackay or O'Toole (I'm not the only one who thought that). I know there's some who feel the Tories stand a pretty good chance against the Liberals in the next election, frankly I don't. That social conservative bent, never mind the precieved xenophobia and the whole slew of other -phobias the members are happy to express, doesn't seem to work with the majority of Canadians when their party push those to the forefront of their policies. O'Toole's main rhetoric is based on "taking back Canada" (persumably from Canadians? Maybe the Laurentian Elite? Homosexuals? Antifa? Oil Businesses who have no interest in the tar sands? I have no idea who he's taking it back from). Personally I think until they can get past their social conservative talking points on hot button issues like abortion (man do my Conservative in laws love talking about abortion) or LGBTQ+ issues (where things like this still happen in Canada!), develop a reasonable environmental strategy and find someone who speaks actual French rather than Conservative French I think they aren't gonna be that successful in Ontario and Quebec (and they have to in order to form the government). The federal Liberals haven't gotten to the point of the Ontario Liberals under Wynne yet. Given time and enough rope they likely will but until then... the Tories remain a Prarie Bloquiste party with another pasty white religious Harperite at the wheel. I always thought that their first leader after Scheer was gonna be a sacrificial lamb in anycase.

Not that polls are always representative but look at this one done before O'Toole was proclaimed leader -
Four in ten (39%) Canadians would be likely (13% very likely/26% somewhat likely) to vote for the Conservative Party if led by Peter MacKay. This drops lower if the party is led by Erin O’Toole (35% likely to consider – 9% very likely, 26% somewhat likely) [emphasis mine], Derek Sloan (31% likely to consider – 7% very likely, 23% somewhat likely) or Leslyn Lewis (30% likely to consider – 8% very likely, 22% somewhat likely).
Thinking about who has the best chance of defeating the Trudeau Liberals, 22% of Canadians believe it is MacKay, while fewer believe O’Toole (7%), Sloan (3%) or Lewis (3%) has the best chance. Two in ten (21%) Canadians believe none of them has the best chance of defeating Trudeau, while 43% are entirely unsure.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:00 AM on August 24 [3 favorites]


I always reckoned the most likely heir apparent was Kenney, but he paddled for the shallow end when he saw his likely future role as goat.

Hmm. I don't think this quite works. Kenney left for Alberta after Harper's defeat. It seems to me that when the Tories lost both Alberta and Canada, they decided to put their best man to recovering home base.
posted by No Robots at 8:20 AM on August 24


I kind of suspect Pierre Poilievre, he of the Francophone name but Anglo Albertan upbringing, thought of himself as the heir to the Harper crown (which is more of a sweater vest with a Maple Leafs logo on it). And in my conspiracy, he chose not to run in order to avoid the obvious comparisons with Scheer.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:32 AM on August 24 [1 favorite]


I thought Kenney just got tired of going to every recent-immigrant festival for a decade. His mashed potato cravings overcame him.
posted by clawsoon at 9:02 AM on August 24 [1 favorite]


^More time with Mom.
posted by No Robots at 9:42 AM on August 24


The walk-and-rant background is just so very telling, isn't it? Not urban graffiti, but old, wrought-iron fencing that even today screams old money, old established power. Even when it was new, it signaled power and wealth and the strength that comes from those two signifiers. Don't get me wrong, I love the look of that fence, but there are aesthetics and then there are political optics, and I'm sure this setting was picked for the optics, not the aesthetics.
posted by sardonyx at 10:12 AM on August 24


I've been purposely tuning out this race so I'm now just digging into who O'Toole is. Son of a long-time MPP and a Bay St lawyer.

So of course he's going to run on a "drain the swamp/outsider/I worked to earn this, unlike Trudeau" message, isn't he?
posted by thecjm at 10:28 AM on August 24 [1 favorite]


It's not a proper Rick Mercer unless you tilt the camera at least 20 degrees.
posted by RobotHero at 10:39 AM on August 24 [8 favorites]


Kenney left for Alberta after Harper's defeat. It seems to me that when the Tories lost both Alberta and Canada, they decided to put their best man to recovering home base.

My perspective was that Kenney came to Alberta to recover home base, and also to set himself up for a run at the PM job; but he expected Scheer to last longer (i.e., he didn't expect the Trudeau govt to make itself so vulnerable that Scheer's botching of the last campaign (I mean, the guy lied about being an insurance agent) would end his tenure; I think many in Conservative circles though Scheer would be an adequate seat warmer until the next federal election). If he ditched AB so fast after consolidating power here, he'd be viewed as feckless, so he's having to play a different game now. The fact that he was one of the few (only?) Conversative premiers to back O'Toole shows he's pretty good at reading the tea leaves and now only enhances his stature on the national stage without him getting tied to whatever problems O'Toole now runs into.
posted by nubs at 10:55 AM on August 24 [2 favorites]


No Robots: ^More time with Mom.

More time outing gay kids while remaining in the closet himself, a bit of sadism he didn't think he could accomplish outside Alberta.
posted by clawsoon at 11:15 AM on August 24 [4 favorites]


Jason Kenney's endorsement of Erin O'Toole was less about O'Toole then it was about supporting anyone-but-MacKay. Last December, Kenney encouraged Rona Ambrose to run. When she declined, Kenny encouraged John Baird to run in February, by which point O'Toole was already in the race. The Reform/Alliance wing of the party hates Peter MacKay, and Erin O'Toole won because he was the only MP from the Harper era--really the only person of any significance or profile--to run who wasn't Peter MacKay.
posted by obscure simpsons reference at 12:39 PM on August 24 [3 favorites]


This is the celebration of the Harper-ite faction defeating their long time rival in MacKay. Harper and his cronies have been sandbagging MacKay every chance they get since 2004.

Kenney, a Harperite of the first water is absolutely going to support O'Toole, another of Harper's long-time supporters. The Alberta reformers and the Blue Machine from Ontario have a sort of detente, so from the western neocon/reformer perspective, O'Toole is fine. Harris-stripe Tories, like Ford, are fine. The John Torys or even Patrick Browns who recall Bill Davis are not.

As far as Harper was concerned, this was a "win". A major loss in the western conservative mind would have been allowing the Atlantic, embodied by MacKay, or worse Quebec conservatives back in. The only time Harper has actively broken cover in the past five years was when Jean Charest looked like he might run. That's reformer/neoliberal nightmare scenario: the old-school eastern coalition Red Tories have a resurgence. It gets less likely every year, but the Alberta/Ontario coalition keeps stomping it out.

Lewis represents something new outside the angry anglo white boy power structure. I think that's the thing that will replace the current neocons who just won/retained control of the party.
posted by bonehead at 2:41 PM on August 24 [3 favorites]




sardonyx: Is Scheer stuck in some kind of time warp? I mean he's going on and about the Berlin Wall? And talking down government? During a pandemic? When government money is probably the only thing that is keeping a huge pile of people and businesses afloat.

I don't know what Scheer's speech was, but I do know there have been issues of The National Review published since 1988 and I urge him to check them out.
posted by clawsoon at 5:17 PM on August 24 [1 favorite]


My perspective was that Kenney came to Alberta to recover home base, and also to set himself up for a run at the PM job

Unfortunately for Kenney the road to 24 Sussex tends not to run through the provincial legislatures, at least recently. Not counting interim leaders (e.g. Bob Rae):

- the last provincial premier elected to lead a major national party was Tommy Douglas (NDP leader 1961-71);

- the last former premier to be elected (Progressive-)Conservative leader was George Drew (led the Tories from 1948 to 1956);

- the last provincial premier to be elected national Liberal leader was Edward Blake (Ontario premier for less than a year in 1871-72; federal Liberal leader 1880-87);

- the last premier to have served as Prime Minister was John Thompson (NS premier for a couple of months in 1882, PM 1892-1894), or Charles Tupper (PM for 10 weeks in 1896) if you count his tenure as the last pre-Confederation premier of the Colony of Nova Scotia.

These days it seems that one of the keys to being a popular populist premier is to stoke resentment against another region of the country as a rallying cry, which undoubtedly would hurt your stock when trying to go national (e.g the pre-1993 Reform Party "The West Wants In!" slogan preventing the Reform/Canadian Alliance from picking up seats east of Manitoba before the Alliance-PC Anschluss merger in 2003). Judging from the unending stream of anti-federal/Ontario/Québec/B.C. tantrums that Kenney has pitched in less than a year and a half in office, I expect we're stuck with him for a while yet, and the conservative side of the electorate here loves nothing more than a blustering little Mussolini (see also: Klein, Ralph).

The Reform/Alliance wing of the party hates Peter MacKay

Which really does shock me, since upon becoming the last PC leader in 2003, he immediately abandoned his promise to reject a merger with the Canadian Alliance, and in the years since has worked diligently to distance himself from even the remotest suggestion that he would still harbour any Red Tory inclinations. So if after all that he finally gets shivved by the chuds he was trying to cozy up to, I say, looks good on ya, you slimy fuck.
posted by hangashore at 5:19 PM on August 24 [4 favorites]


Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he will not campaign for new Conservative leader.

This is interesting, not because Ford is being generously non-partisan, but because it fuels speculation that he's triangulating a run at the CPC leadership itself and a solid run at running the country post-Trudeau. From Ford's point of view, if O'Toole wins the next election, that could spoil his plans. So he doesn't help O'Toole.

Possibly also payback for being told to sit on his hands during Sheer's run.

Still, it would appear the CPC brass has annoyed Ford.
posted by bonehead at 6:25 AM on August 25 [3 favorites]


There was the whole "sit this one out Doug" during the last election and Ford has been falling over himself to praise Trudeau and Freeland recently so maybe there is some bad blood there. The Fords are known to hold long time grudges against everyone and anyone.
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:21 AM on August 25 [5 favorites]


And maybe Ford realizes that he needs federal money now more than ever, and Conservatives are more likely to cut down that flow? (Though the grudge does seem more likely...)
posted by clawsoon at 11:48 AM on August 25 [1 favorite]


I feel like all of the above about Doug Ford are true -- he's probably managed to upset some party muckety-mucks, and federal relief for the provinces is going to be a big deal for him since provincial services are where people will really feel austerity pain (federal responsibilities for CERB/EI notwithstanding). And of course he's harbouring a festering grudge because, well, grudges are what he does.

If I've learned anything from watching the Fords over last decade or so, it's that we can be pretty certain that there's some other bizarro palace intrigue bubbling under the surface.

I mean, we're talking about a guy who (relatively) recently recorded a video of himself making cheesecake in the very same kitchen where his sister was shot in face by her ex, Scott Mcintyre. And he was a different ex than Ennio Stirpe, who in turn shot and killed her boyfriend Michael Kiklas, who in turn was an actual neo-Nazi.

All of which is to say...it's hard to know what else is going on qua Ford, but it's probably the sort of thing people won't believe when it comes out because it'll just be too messed up to sound plausible. For example, the Fords were mentioned prominently in that GFL Environmental short report that just came out.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:33 PM on August 25 [5 favorites]


CBC News panels discussing O'Toole's win. One panelist made a point that hadn't occurred to me before: It's in the interest of the NDP to have a Conservative leader who's as non-threatening as possible because then people are more willing to vote for the NDP. If they're not scared of a Conservative government, they have less reason to hold their noses and vote Liberal.
posted by clawsoon at 4:14 PM on August 25 [1 favorite]


^Which is then also good for the Tories in that NDP votes help topple the Grits. Ah, NDP, always the bridesmaid....
posted by No Robots at 6:38 PM on August 25 [1 favorite]


I think this thread has wound down but I thought I would include a link to this poll before it closes, featuring Doug Ford with the second highest approval rating and Kenney with the second lowest (BC & NLFD being the respective tops / bottoms).
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:53 AM on September 2


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