Why David Quammen Is Not Surprised
September 18, 2020 8:56 AM Subscribe
Well, here we are. The nightmare scenario, going back ten years at least, has been this: It will be a new virus, probably from one of the fast-evolving families (especially those SS-RNA viruses), such as the coronaviruses, that comes from an animal, gets into humans, transmits well human-to-human, spreads by silent or cryptic transmission (meaning that infected people may feel fine for a few days and be walking around, riding the subway, going to work, but are meanwhile shedding the virus), and kills at a relatively high case fatality rate. This outbreak ticks all those boxes. It is the nightmare scenario. If it spreads as widely and infects as many people as a seasonal flu, as it well might, it could kill twenty times as many people.
In 2012, science writer and Orion contributor David Quammen published Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. The book charts the ecology and spread of “zoonoses,” diseases transmitted between animals and humans, and sounds the alarm for serious political and public health actions to prepare for future pandemic.
Well, here we are.
At present, we are experiencing one of the most disruptive global pandemics in history, with stark forecasts for any improvement. We reached out to Quammen for answers on why we weren’t prepared for this outbreak, whether there is any silver lining in this development, and what safety precautions he and his wife (and their pet python) recommend during indefinite lockdown.
In 2012, science writer and Orion contributor David Quammen published Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. The book charts the ecology and spread of “zoonoses,” diseases transmitted between animals and humans, and sounds the alarm for serious political and public health actions to prepare for future pandemic.
Well, here we are.
At present, we are experiencing one of the most disruptive global pandemics in history, with stark forecasts for any improvement. We reached out to Quammen for answers on why we weren’t prepared for this outbreak, whether there is any silver lining in this development, and what safety precautions he and his wife (and their pet python) recommend during indefinite lockdown.
"because coronaviruses mutate often and therefore evolve quickly"
well the good news is he appears to be wrong about that in its human host, on a timescale that matters to us.
posted by lalochezia at 9:11 AM on September 18, 2020 [4 favorites]
well the good news is he appears to be wrong about that in its human host, on a timescale that matters to us.
posted by lalochezia at 9:11 AM on September 18, 2020 [4 favorites]
"because coronaviruses mutate often and therefore evolve quickly" well the good news is he appears to be wrong about that
Fortunately wrong regarding SARS-CoV-2. Quite possibly right with regards to SARS-CoV-3 (COVID-21).
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:17 AM on September 18, 2020 [3 favorites]
Fortunately wrong regarding SARS-CoV-2. Quite possibly right with regards to SARS-CoV-3 (COVID-21).
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:17 AM on September 18, 2020 [3 favorites]
This is not the nightmare scenario everyone has been warning us about. The nightmare scenario everyone has been warning us about is the next pandemic: the one that is caused by an antibiotic-resistant bacterium. We're so hilariously, pathetically unprepared.
posted by capricorn at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2020 [21 favorites]
posted by capricorn at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2020 [21 favorites]
I've always wondered how a "case" is defined. Apparently the Infection Fatality Rate (as opposed to the Case Fatality Rate) is not all that high. Is a "case" any positive test? Or do you need to be experiencing symptoms AND have had a test in order to be defined as a case? How about all the "cases" who are experiencing mild symptoms at home and get better without medical intervention? If they could be counted, wouldn't that make the "denominator" much much larger?
posted by DMelanogaster at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by DMelanogaster at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
If this crisis makes us permanently aware of a few points, raises them in our attention and strengthens them in our hearts, it will have some silver lining. Those points are:posted by otherchaz at 9:21 AM on September 18, 2020 [17 favorites]
1. Prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.
2. Zoonotic spillovers will keep coming, as long as we drag wild animals to us and split them open.
3. A tropical forest, with its vast diversity of visible creatures and microbes, is like a beautiful old barn: knock it over with a bulldozer and viruses will rise in the air like dust.
4. Leave bats, in particular, the hell alone.
Quammen is a once in a generation talent in science and nature writing. I've recc'ed Spillover on the blue a number of times. Addressing zoonoses in general, it hits on SARS. It's a layperson's book, not a scientific tome and there's plenty of anecdotes and human drama.
It has hands-down the BEST telling of HIV emergence, which was subsequently published on it's own as 'The Chimp and the River'.
The only people surprised by an emerging coronavirus are electeds, who treat science as a well of available funding for pet projects. Who could have known a novel virus would emerge?
Every competent infectious disease scientist.
Declare an emergency, take half the DOD budget and give it to public health. That would be real, measurable *homeland security*.
We are well and truly fucked when that very special influenza comes around.
posted by j_curiouser at 9:39 AM on September 18, 2020 [35 favorites]
It has hands-down the BEST telling of HIV emergence, which was subsequently published on it's own as 'The Chimp and the River'.
The only people surprised by an emerging coronavirus are electeds, who treat science as a well of available funding for pet projects. Who could have known a novel virus would emerge?
Every competent infectious disease scientist.
Declare an emergency, take half the DOD budget and give it to public health. That would be real, measurable *homeland security*.
We are well and truly fucked when that very special influenza comes around.
posted by j_curiouser at 9:39 AM on September 18, 2020 [35 favorites]
Good catch.
Other folks have been sounding this alarm for a while, like Laurie Garrett.
A bunch of us in the futurist world have been doing pandemic forecasting and simulations for years.
posted by doctornemo at 9:55 AM on September 18, 2020 [15 favorites]
Other folks have been sounding this alarm for a while, like Laurie Garrett.
A bunch of us in the futurist world have been doing pandemic forecasting and simulations for years.
posted by doctornemo at 9:55 AM on September 18, 2020 [15 favorites]
Other folks have been sounding this alarm for a while, like Laurie Garrett.
Indeed. I read her book, The Coming Plague in the early 2000s. I really expected something like COVID a decade ago.
It has to be really depressing to have been sounding the alarm for decades and then see that this is the best response we can muster. Or the best response we're willing to muster, anyway.
posted by jzb at 10:11 AM on September 18, 2020 [10 favorites]
Indeed. I read her book, The Coming Plague in the early 2000s. I really expected something like COVID a decade ago.
It has to be really depressing to have been sounding the alarm for decades and then see that this is the best response we can muster. Or the best response we're willing to muster, anyway.
posted by jzb at 10:11 AM on September 18, 2020 [10 favorites]
So when people say that this is a “once in hundred years” pandemic, that’s not accounting for how humans are living differently and how we’ve changed the ecology of the planet. What are the odds that these events will be more frequent? Because I sure as heck don’t trust that this year’s fire season is “once in a generation,” considering how we’ve messed the natural balance up so badly on that front...
posted by Skwirl at 10:31 AM on September 18, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by Skwirl at 10:31 AM on September 18, 2020 [7 favorites]
I, too, came here to bring up Laurie Garret and the fact that The Coming Plague was published 25 years ago.
She says essentially the same thing in the final chapter of her book: that the next big thing coming isn't going to kill everyone right away, that it will have asymptomatic spread, and be something easily transferred from one human to the next. I read that book 25 years ago and have been waiting for the very grounded things she predicted to come true. It should be required reading for any science education.
posted by Alison at 11:25 AM on September 18, 2020 [11 favorites]
She says essentially the same thing in the final chapter of her book: that the next big thing coming isn't going to kill everyone right away, that it will have asymptomatic spread, and be something easily transferred from one human to the next. I read that book 25 years ago and have been waiting for the very grounded things she predicted to come true. It should be required reading for any science education.
posted by Alison at 11:25 AM on September 18, 2020 [11 favorites]
Garret has been all over Twitter and traditional media. Terrific to follow.
One of her notes: health care and public health are different things. Some nations, notably the US, have really messed up the latter *before* COVID.
posted by doctornemo at 1:20 PM on September 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
One of her notes: health care and public health are different things. Some nations, notably the US, have really messed up the latter *before* COVID.
posted by doctornemo at 1:20 PM on September 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
It has to be really depressing to have been sounding the alarm for decades and then see that this is the best response we can muster.
It is.
We've been discussing this in the futures field, wondering how and why we failed. It seems like the countries which responded best were those recently hit by epidemics or pandemics, such as MERS or SARS. Which is a damned hard way to learn.
posted by doctornemo at 1:21 PM on September 18, 2020 [6 favorites]
It is.
We've been discussing this in the futures field, wondering how and why we failed. It seems like the countries which responded best were those recently hit by epidemics or pandemics, such as MERS or SARS. Which is a damned hard way to learn.
posted by doctornemo at 1:21 PM on September 18, 2020 [6 favorites]
To answer DMelanogaster's question, the technical meaning of Case is someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. A Contact is someone who was within six feet of a Case for at least 10 or 15 minutes (different public health agencies use different thresholds) during the Case's likely infectious period. The infectious period is calculated as beginning two days before the Case's test sample was collected or two days before they developed the first clear symptoms, whichever was earlier.
posted by PhineasGage at 1:52 PM on September 18, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 1:52 PM on September 18, 2020 [6 favorites]
Spillover is on Audible and it's a pretty good narration, fwiw.
posted by j_curiouser at 9:26 PM on September 18, 2020
posted by j_curiouser at 9:26 PM on September 18, 2020
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posted by gwint at 9:09 AM on September 18, 2020 [6 favorites]