Brexit is done (or is it?)
December 24, 2020 8:02 AM Subscribe
At the beginning of this year, the UK formally left the EU, initiating a transition period that will end by January 1, 2021. Before the end of the transition period a deal between the UK and the EU was needed to prevent total chaos. Today that deal has been made.
Key events in the UK's departure
previous. previouslier
Key events in the UK's departure
previous. previouslier
"and the bag itself goes directly in the bin."
posted by dazed_one at 8:08 AM on December 24, 2020 [24 favorites]
posted by dazed_one at 8:08 AM on December 24, 2020 [24 favorites]
As a Dutch European; I'm very sorry for you guys. Every reasonable Briton I spoke to the last couple of years is vehemently against it (apart from that one guy in the laundromat but I didn't think he was very reasonable). Maybe that says something about the bubble I'm in but regardless, it's a tragedy for many people waiting to happen (or already happening).
As for the title of the post. I gather this deal is just barebones. Brexit might be done but there will be continuing talks for years to come.
Also, sorry for the make-up of the post, I messed up and asked the mods to change it.
posted by Kosmob0t at 8:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [8 favorites]
As for the title of the post. I gather this deal is just barebones. Brexit might be done but there will be continuing talks for years to come.
Also, sorry for the make-up of the post, I messed up and asked the mods to change it.
posted by Kosmob0t at 8:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [8 favorites]
I gather this deal is open to being renegotiated after five years, so it's yet another punt of the proverbial can down the proverbial shit creek, to mix a metaphor or two.
posted by fight or flight at 8:16 AM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 8:16 AM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
Brexit was supposed to give us more control of our laws so we can be more competitive than we were in the EU, but: The Brexit Deal Johnson is signing is specifically designed to restrict UK law so UK businesses can't get a competitive advantage over EU ones. 5 years well spent. - Femi
posted by Lanark at 8:22 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by Lanark at 8:22 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
Whether we get there by going over the cliff or rolling along the road, it's all downhill.
posted by Luddite at 8:23 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by Luddite at 8:23 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
A disaster ending in a farce. This is a stupid thing, done badly, that will hold back my country for decades - it's not that different to the deal we could have had 18 months ago, if that matters. The EU, as a final goodbye, shared this graphic showing exactly what we've lost (Twitter link). We are now smaller, poorer and weaker.
And as a final f**k you to ourselves (and especially to our young people), we've chosen to leave the Erasmus programme for no good reason at all.
[The remainder of this comment has been deleted as it consists entirely of profanities.]
posted by YoungStencil at 8:27 AM on December 24, 2020 [68 favorites]
And as a final f**k you to ourselves (and especially to our young people), we've chosen to leave the Erasmus programme for no good reason at all.
[The remainder of this comment has been deleted as it consists entirely of profanities.]
posted by YoungStencil at 8:27 AM on December 24, 2020 [68 favorites]
I didn't see any mention of how the Ireland/Northern Ireland border is going to be handled. How did that turn out?
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 8:42 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 8:42 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
So no free passage for UK citizens. How is the Ireland/Northern Ireland border being handled as far as people going to and from Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and Ireland? IE: what is stopping any UK citizen from traveling from London to Northern Ireland to Ireland to any point in the EU on a whim and vice versa for EU citizens?
posted by Mitheral at 8:44 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 8:44 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
.
posted by lalochezia at 8:54 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 8:54 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
Brexit has been a product of a continual focus on the parts of our economy that dont really matter to the exclusion of all else. Our universities are world famous and weve spent the last decade making it harder for students to attend from abroad. One of the reasons we spent so long on this deal is over the fishing industry!
I am so embarrassed to be a member of this ridiculous nation right now. No doubt in a decades time we will be applying for membership of the eu with much worse terms than we had.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 9:14 AM on December 24, 2020 [28 favorites]
I am so embarrassed to be a member of this ridiculous nation right now. No doubt in a decades time we will be applying for membership of the eu with much worse terms than we had.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 9:14 AM on December 24, 2020 [28 favorites]
NI was dealt with under the withdrawal agreement last year. The Irish border remains open for people and goods. NI remains in the single market. To protect the EU, there is a border in the Irish sea and customs checks apply to goods that may end up crossing into Ireland and the rest of the EU. People can cross the land border freely (the common travel area predates the EU) but further free movement into the EU requires an Irish (or other EU) passport etc, and travel to the mainland is checked at the ferry stage. Yes, NI got a much better deal than the rest of the UK did, but that was mainly because the Brexiteers led by moron-in-chief Johnson wanted to get out of the EU as fast as possible and were fine leaving NI effectively still inside the EU to do so. Of course they then threatened to go back on that deal a few months ago to gain leverage in the trade talks.
This bare bones deal is about the future relationship of the mainland and the EU. It will prevent 100 mile lorry queues in Kent, aaaand that's about it.
It is a far worse deal than we had, achieves nothing we couldn't already do, and fucks over everyone that wanted to ever spend more time in Europe than a short holiday. It caused years of stress about whether EU spouses could even stay, and has set up a future windrush type scandal due to the bureaucracy required to get permanent residency all over again.
I've forgiven those who voted for Brexit but realised they were conned by lying scum who only wanted to enrich themselves at the cost of the rest of us. I will never forgive those that still support it, for the pain they have inflicted on me and mine over the last 4 years, and the rights they have stolen from me. I hope the small minded apoplexy they get because we made any deal at all chokes them in their own bile.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on December 24, 2020 [71 favorites]
This bare bones deal is about the future relationship of the mainland and the EU. It will prevent 100 mile lorry queues in Kent, aaaand that's about it.
It is a far worse deal than we had, achieves nothing we couldn't already do, and fucks over everyone that wanted to ever spend more time in Europe than a short holiday. It caused years of stress about whether EU spouses could even stay, and has set up a future windrush type scandal due to the bureaucracy required to get permanent residency all over again.
I've forgiven those who voted for Brexit but realised they were conned by lying scum who only wanted to enrich themselves at the cost of the rest of us. I will never forgive those that still support it, for the pain they have inflicted on me and mine over the last 4 years, and the rights they have stolen from me. I hope the small minded apoplexy they get because we made any deal at all chokes them in their own bile.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on December 24, 2020 [71 favorites]
.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:18 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:18 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
Is there passport control on ferries/flights to the UK from Northern Ireland?
posted by Mitheral at 9:32 AM on December 24, 2020
posted by Mitheral at 9:32 AM on December 24, 2020
So you put a bumbling not-as-smart-as-he-thinks-he-is Etonian who's never had to actually work at anything in charge of Brexit and he fumbles around not actually accomplishing anything besides assuring everyone it's going to be brilliant...until he realizes there might be consequences for his actions, and then half-asses something that kind of looks good enough at the last minute, but really is a godawful mess?
Huh.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 9:39 AM on December 24, 2020 [12 favorites]
Huh.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 9:39 AM on December 24, 2020 [12 favorites]
For clarity, because this seems to be turning into a derail, the only type of passport control that's now relevant is the one that happens at job interviews.
posted by ambrosen at 9:44 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 9:44 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
Well there we are I guess. A deal that basically looks exactly like people said it would, the logic of how the EU is put together being what it is.
I'm not the world's biggest fan of the institutions of the EU but given that it was put together to try and reconcile the irreconcilable realities of effective collective decision making and national sovereignty there were always going to be kludges.
I accept that there's things the UK could do outside the EU that it couldn't inside but they tend to fall into the following categories:
-Outright bad ideas
-Things which were being fixed anyway (agricultural and fisheries policy)
-Things which *might* be good ideas in some sense but for which there isn't and won't be a UK political consensus
-Rules lobbied for by the UK in the first place (what, you think a bunch of French ENA graduates and German politicians built the EU's level playing field rules? They wanted to be sure that member states couldn't have national favourite companies or exclusionary industrial strategies? ... nope, UK designed and built those rules)
-Things which wouldn't be compatible with other trade agreements
-Areas where the UK didn't even exploit the full freedom of EU rules before
-Radical strategies which the UK doesn't seem to have the governing machinery to execute
In other words it's a lot of effort to trade market access for theoretical de jure freedom to do things that no government will actually do.
The real irony is that the deal that David Cameron negotiated was actually economically brilliant deal which would have permanently protected the UK's inside-but-outside position within the EU but it was too wonkish and didn't do what the masses wanted (control immigration) so out it went.
posted by atrazine at 9:47 AM on December 24, 2020 [17 favorites]
I'm not the world's biggest fan of the institutions of the EU but given that it was put together to try and reconcile the irreconcilable realities of effective collective decision making and national sovereignty there were always going to be kludges.
I accept that there's things the UK could do outside the EU that it couldn't inside but they tend to fall into the following categories:
-Outright bad ideas
-Things which were being fixed anyway (agricultural and fisheries policy)
-Things which *might* be good ideas in some sense but for which there isn't and won't be a UK political consensus
-Rules lobbied for by the UK in the first place (what, you think a bunch of French ENA graduates and German politicians built the EU's level playing field rules? They wanted to be sure that member states couldn't have national favourite companies or exclusionary industrial strategies? ... nope, UK designed and built those rules)
-Things which wouldn't be compatible with other trade agreements
-Areas where the UK didn't even exploit the full freedom of EU rules before
-Radical strategies which the UK doesn't seem to have the governing machinery to execute
In other words it's a lot of effort to trade market access for theoretical de jure freedom to do things that no government will actually do.
The real irony is that the deal that David Cameron negotiated was actually economically brilliant deal which would have permanently protected the UK's inside-but-outside position within the EU but it was too wonkish and didn't do what the masses wanted (control immigration) so out it went.
posted by atrazine at 9:47 AM on December 24, 2020 [17 favorites]
Is there passport control on ferries/flights to the UK from Northern Ireland?
As I undestand it, yes, but not quite. Travel between NI, Ireland, the rest of UK and the rest of the EU has always been a bit of a special case, not least as the the UK and Ireland were not members of Schengen - given they didn't have a land border with the rest of Europe.
So to get into or off the island of Ireland you need some form of ID, which often needs to be a passport, but not to travel within the island. Irish and British citizens have broad rights to travel, work and settle in either country that is not contingent on EU membership. Many NI citizens are eligible for Irish passports to boot, which would allow further travel into the EU.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:49 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
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posted by limeonaire at 9:51 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by limeonaire at 9:51 AM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
...was actually economically brilliant deal which would have permanently protected the UK's inside-but-outside position within the EU but it was too wonkish and didn't do what the masses wanted (control immigration) so out it went.
Or, to put it more bluntly, the country was willing to commit self-harm, make itself poorer and smaller, revoke rights from its citizens all in the name of xenophobia and racism. There has never been any other reason. The UK had a leading role in the EU and chose to leave it all behind.
The UK remains a trusted partner. We will stand shoulder to shoulder to deliver on our common global goals.
But now let's turn the page and look to the future.
To all Europeans I say: it is time to leave Brexit behind.
Our future is made in Europe.
- von der Leyen, just now, basically pronouncing the UK as now irrelevant.
posted by vacapinta at 9:59 AM on December 24, 2020 [37 favorites]
Or, to put it more bluntly, the country was willing to commit self-harm, make itself poorer and smaller, revoke rights from its citizens all in the name of xenophobia and racism. There has never been any other reason. The UK had a leading role in the EU and chose to leave it all behind.
The UK remains a trusted partner. We will stand shoulder to shoulder to deliver on our common global goals.
But now let's turn the page and look to the future.
To all Europeans I say: it is time to leave Brexit behind.
Our future is made in Europe.
- von der Leyen, just now, basically pronouncing the UK as now irrelevant.
posted by vacapinta at 9:59 AM on December 24, 2020 [37 favorites]
For an illustration of how utterly stupid and hung up on appearances this whole thing has been, the entire UK fishing industry, for the sake of which the entire deal was going to be thrown away, is worth about a third of what a company that sells little models of orks to middle-aged nerds.
(I and many of my friends are those exact middle-aged nerds, I’m not trying to be disparaging; but the pandemic-led Games Workshop relapse amongst my friends and colleagues has been startling to watch.)
posted by parm at 10:03 AM on December 24, 2020 [24 favorites]
(I and many of my friends are those exact middle-aged nerds, I’m not trying to be disparaging; but the pandemic-led Games Workshop relapse amongst my friends and colleagues has been startling to watch.)
posted by parm at 10:03 AM on December 24, 2020 [24 favorites]
I still cannot quite believe this has all actually happened. I may never, in fact, be able to come entirely to grips with this.
posted by aramaic at 10:17 AM on December 24, 2020 [16 favorites]
posted by aramaic at 10:17 AM on December 24, 2020 [16 favorites]
A country's future poisoned and destroyed by racism. I would hope Americans would see this and learn something, but racists never learn anything, do they?
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 10:18 AM on December 24, 2020 [17 favorites]
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 10:18 AM on December 24, 2020 [17 favorites]
Absolutely No You-Know-What: ...and fucks over everyone that wanted to ever spend more time in Europe than a short holiday
My wife can gain UK citizenship through descent, and we had seriously thought about emigrating from the US, at least for a few years. But a big part of the draw was the access to the EU. So, now... pretty sure it's not worth the effort.
Better luck next life, I suppose.
posted by SunSnork at 10:21 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
My wife can gain UK citizenship through descent, and we had seriously thought about emigrating from the US, at least for a few years. But a big part of the draw was the access to the EU. So, now... pretty sure it's not worth the effort.
Better luck next life, I suppose.
posted by SunSnork at 10:21 AM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
A country's future poisoned and destroyed by racism. I would hope Americans would see this and learn something, but racists never learn anything, do they?
they learned plenty. they that it sure is a successful tactic at protecting the power and wealth of jingoistic billionaires and at neutering laws that will turn the vast ship of the world away from its own destruction by environmental degradation or war......
posted by lalochezia at 10:23 AM on December 24, 2020 [14 favorites]
... all in the name of xenophobia and racism. There has never been any other reason.
Personally, I think different groups of bastards backed it for different reasons, but yes, the racists & xenophobes backed it for immigration control.
Add in a sprinkle of libertarian million/billionaires wanting reshape the U.K. economy to their liking (plus avoid new EU financial restrictions aimed squarely at taxing the super-rich), a dash of disaster capitalists wanting to privatise everything (esp. the NHS), a soupçon of opportunistic traders betting against the pound, and finally a dollop of Russia pouring money into the coffers of all of the above in order to weaken the EU, and you have the “oven-ready” shitshow we now face. They would all have been happier with a No Deal Brexit I’m sure, but that’s scant consolation.
The whole thing makes me so sad and angry that I’ve been banned from discussing it in the house.
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 10:29 AM on December 24, 2020 [26 favorites]
Personally, I think different groups of bastards backed it for different reasons, but yes, the racists & xenophobes backed it for immigration control.
Add in a sprinkle of libertarian million/billionaires wanting reshape the U.K. economy to their liking (plus avoid new EU financial restrictions aimed squarely at taxing the super-rich), a dash of disaster capitalists wanting to privatise everything (esp. the NHS), a soupçon of opportunistic traders betting against the pound, and finally a dollop of Russia pouring money into the coffers of all of the above in order to weaken the EU, and you have the “oven-ready” shitshow we now face. They would all have been happier with a No Deal Brexit I’m sure, but that’s scant consolation.
The whole thing makes me so sad and angry that I’ve been banned from discussing it in the house.
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 10:29 AM on December 24, 2020 [26 favorites]
So to get into or off the island of Ireland you need some form of ID, which often needs to be a passport, but not to travel within the island.
It’s a bit messier than that - the Common Travel Area only applies to Irish and UK citizens. Unlike the Schengen area, a visa for the UK doesn’t automatically give you the right to enter Ireland and vice versa. So even pre-Brexit, you have a weird situation where UK and Irish citizens can cross the border freely, and do not need to show ID, but at the same time, there are people who are not allowed to cross the border. (There can be passport/ID checks at the (land) border, which has in the past led to accusations of racial profiling as you can’t ask UK/Irish citizens for ID, and obviously that only means white people).
we've chosen to leave the Erasmus programme for no good reason at all
Students in Northern Ireland will still have access to Erasmus - tweet from the Irish (Republic) Minister for Higher Education confirming it.
My wife can gain UK citizenship through descent, and we had seriously thought about emigrating from the US, at least for a few years.
At least theoretically, you could use Ireland - UK citizens can still live/work in Ireland. Then get Irish citizenship by residence.
posted by scorbet at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [5 favorites]
It’s a bit messier than that - the Common Travel Area only applies to Irish and UK citizens. Unlike the Schengen area, a visa for the UK doesn’t automatically give you the right to enter Ireland and vice versa. So even pre-Brexit, you have a weird situation where UK and Irish citizens can cross the border freely, and do not need to show ID, but at the same time, there are people who are not allowed to cross the border. (There can be passport/ID checks at the (land) border, which has in the past led to accusations of racial profiling as you can’t ask UK/Irish citizens for ID, and obviously that only means white people).
we've chosen to leave the Erasmus programme for no good reason at all
Students in Northern Ireland will still have access to Erasmus - tweet from the Irish (Republic) Minister for Higher Education confirming it.
My wife can gain UK citizenship through descent, and we had seriously thought about emigrating from the US, at least for a few years.
At least theoretically, you could use Ireland - UK citizens can still live/work in Ireland. Then get Irish citizenship by residence.
posted by scorbet at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [5 favorites]
To protect the EU, there is a border in the Irish sea and customs checks apply to goods that may end up crossing into Ireland and the rest of the EU.
Sinn Féin's program of achieving Irish unification proceeds apace. And this without even taking their seats in Parliament.
It's hard to believe that Johnson is technically the head of the Conservative and Unionist Party. We're basically one referendum away from Scottish independence, a united Ireland, and the dissolution of the United Kingdom.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [35 favorites]
Sinn Féin's program of achieving Irish unification proceeds apace. And this without even taking their seats in Parliament.
It's hard to believe that Johnson is technically the head of the Conservative and Unionist Party. We're basically one referendum away from Scottish independence, a united Ireland, and the dissolution of the United Kingdom.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2020 [35 favorites]
Apparently the Erasmus program is being replaced by the "Turing scheme", named after Alan Turing, a fantastic man who let's not forget was chemically castrated and tortured by the British government in 1952 for the crime of being gay. This was announced by a PM who has used homophobic slurs, publicly, on more than one occasion.
The sheer callous, brazen cheek of this government is almost too disgusting for me to think about for very long or I might spontaneously combust.
posted by fight or flight at 11:22 AM on December 24, 2020 [29 favorites]
The sheer callous, brazen cheek of this government is almost too disgusting for me to think about for very long or I might spontaneously combust.
posted by fight or flight at 11:22 AM on December 24, 2020 [29 favorites]
I’m so sorry. It’s hard to know what else to say—it’s painful to watch as a country’s leadership wilfully and thoroughly rolls back progress and worsens the lives of its citizens.
.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 11:46 AM on December 24, 2020 [6 favorites]
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posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 11:46 AM on December 24, 2020 [6 favorites]
I am amazed that the UK gov traded away financial passporting? I thought that was the main driver of London's massive financial services market? And the fisheries are locked down for 5.5 years? And the UK is bound to the EU's food/services/etc. rules? And UK airlines can't fly through the EU? And UK trucking is limited to 1 cabotage?
It really looks like the EU picked the best options for itself and the UK didn't get anything?
posted by pdoege at 12:21 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
It really looks like the EU picked the best options for itself and the UK didn't get anything?
posted by pdoege at 12:21 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
and the UK didn't get anything?
The UK does get zero tariffs with the EU — something the EU does not extend to the US, for example.
posted by RichardP at 12:25 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
The UK does get zero tariffs with the EU — something the EU does not extend to the US, for example.
posted by RichardP at 12:25 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
Each time I want a film quote for Brexit I keep returning to this:
posted by runcifex at 12:31 PM on December 24, 2020 [6 favorites]
There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept.(The Architect in Matrix)
posted by runcifex at 12:31 PM on December 24, 2020 [6 favorites]
And I have to wonder why this fixation on fish resonates eerily with Magna Carta trutherism.
There’s tons of chat about fishing—very, very important. It’s a big fishing country! So there’s a lot about that.posted by runcifex at 12:36 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
On the upside, no more banana straightening.
posted by chavenet at 1:05 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 1:05 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
"I am more comfortable tense."
-André Clement. from: The International.
posted by clavdivs at 1:09 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
-André Clement. from: The International.
posted by clavdivs at 1:09 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
No 10 says ‘we have taken back control’, after years of talks end in settlement allowing tariff-free trade in goodWhat’s the over/under on how many editorial cartoons in UK papers this week will feature these words?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 1:28 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
I am amazed that the UK gov traded away financial passporting? I thought that was the main driver of London's massive financial services market?
It is, but it was never really on the table, as it's pretty fundamentally tied to the single market and EU regulation which are anathema to the hardcore brexiteers. But London will continue to be able to be the dirty money laundry for the world's oligarchs, and that's what really matters, right?
It really looks like the EU picked the best options for itself and the UK didn't get anything?
This is the nature of dealing with the EU as an outside country. They discuss among themselves what they want, and present it as mostly a take-it-or-leave-it package. There's a little wiggle room round the minor details - the EU wanted fishing quota changes to come in over 7 years, the UK 3, so they managed to settle on 5.5 years instead. They EU initially offered 15% of fish quotas back IIRC, the UK wanted 60% - they settled on 25%. And the EU are absolute masters at rewording a section to sound acceptable, without actually changing the fundamental principle - ala the 'ratchet clause' to ensure the UK keeps up with evolving EU minimum standards or face tariffs - it's something Johnson absolutely point blank refused to accept, yet he folded and it's in there with some extra waffle. About the only major concession from the EU is the UK wanted complete freedom to do subsidies; the EU wanted alignment with EU state aid rules. They settled on the UK can do subsidies as long as they abide by EU principles, and the EU can impose tariffs if that's breached.
It's the absolute minimum deal to keep the border open for most goods on British trucks, albeit with a ton of extra checks and paperwork (rules of origin, quality etc). Some sectors, like Scottish potato farmers (and car makers, somewhat) still got screwed.
Leaving without a deal was estimated to cost 8 to 9% GDP over 15 years; a minimum deal like this would only be 6 to 7%. Plus we've already spent more on Brexit prep than we spent on EU membership contributions over 40 years.
If Brexit was voluntarily diving into a deep pool of raw sewage, this deal leaves us only neck deep instead of entirely submerged, so it's better than no deal would be. But we're still neck deep in shit and expected to be happy about it.
Right, I'm off to wrap presents. Merry fucking Christmas, all.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:40 PM on December 24, 2020 [50 favorites]
It is, but it was never really on the table, as it's pretty fundamentally tied to the single market and EU regulation which are anathema to the hardcore brexiteers. But London will continue to be able to be the dirty money laundry for the world's oligarchs, and that's what really matters, right?
It really looks like the EU picked the best options for itself and the UK didn't get anything?
This is the nature of dealing with the EU as an outside country. They discuss among themselves what they want, and present it as mostly a take-it-or-leave-it package. There's a little wiggle room round the minor details - the EU wanted fishing quota changes to come in over 7 years, the UK 3, so they managed to settle on 5.5 years instead. They EU initially offered 15% of fish quotas back IIRC, the UK wanted 60% - they settled on 25%. And the EU are absolute masters at rewording a section to sound acceptable, without actually changing the fundamental principle - ala the 'ratchet clause' to ensure the UK keeps up with evolving EU minimum standards or face tariffs - it's something Johnson absolutely point blank refused to accept, yet he folded and it's in there with some extra waffle. About the only major concession from the EU is the UK wanted complete freedom to do subsidies; the EU wanted alignment with EU state aid rules. They settled on the UK can do subsidies as long as they abide by EU principles, and the EU can impose tariffs if that's breached.
It's the absolute minimum deal to keep the border open for most goods on British trucks, albeit with a ton of extra checks and paperwork (rules of origin, quality etc). Some sectors, like Scottish potato farmers (and car makers, somewhat) still got screwed.
Leaving without a deal was estimated to cost 8 to 9% GDP over 15 years; a minimum deal like this would only be 6 to 7%. Plus we've already spent more on Brexit prep than we spent on EU membership contributions over 40 years.
If Brexit was voluntarily diving into a deep pool of raw sewage, this deal leaves us only neck deep instead of entirely submerged, so it's better than no deal would be. But we're still neck deep in shit and expected to be happy about it.
Right, I'm off to wrap presents. Merry fucking Christmas, all.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:40 PM on December 24, 2020 [50 favorites]
"The first question the EU commission was asked by a French journalist after the #BrexitDeal was signed: "The UK broke the last deal within months of signing it. How can you be sure they won't break this one?""
How, indeed?
posted by delfin at 2:42 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
How, indeed?
posted by delfin at 2:42 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
Is it possible that the EU and UK negotiators realised months (if not years) ago that this was the only available outcome and they also realised that the only way they'd get away with it would be to slip it under the wire on Christmas Eve, and everything has just been an elaborate pantomime?
OK, scratch possible. Is it likely?
posted by Grangousier at 2:45 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
OK, scratch possible. Is it likely?
posted by Grangousier at 2:45 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
It's true that this deal is better than no deal at all, but that's where the good news stops. After nearly five years of tearing the country apart and throwing away money that could have been used for something productive, we've achieved the massive victory of making ourselves worse off than we were before - not just in a financial sense but in every other sense too. What a fucking farce.
posted by Paul Slade at 2:57 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 2:57 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
OK, scratch possible. Is it likely?
Possible and likely - but only from the UK side. The EU didn't need to get away with it.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 3:00 PM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
Possible and likely - but only from the UK side. The EU didn't need to get away with it.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 3:00 PM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
Good news everybody, wealthy Britons will be just fine, and really, isn't that what's important?!
posted by evilDoug at 3:07 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by evilDoug at 3:07 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
The EU didn't need to get away with it.
Oh, absolutely, but what I was thinking was that at some point in the distant past, the UK negotiator sits down with the EU negotiator, who explains that, well, this is the arrangement, and that's all there is to it. Because the EU is an oil tanker and the UK is a yacht. There's a silence and the UK negotiator says, "But we'll be lynched. We promised all sorts of things."
"Well, you should leave it until the very last minute, then they can do nothing about it."
"But that's years off. What do we do until then?"
"Brussels contains many fine restaurants. Come over every few months, we'll meet up for a chat, you can have some nice meals on expenses, go home and say we are more in agreement, or less in agreement, or it looks like a deal is imminent or a deal is impossible and there will be no deal and as long as you say the opposite of what you said last time it will keep them talking."
"We can't keep that up for years, though, surely. Won't they figure it out?"
"Oh, no, they're mostly interested in shouting at each other. As long as they can do that, I don't think anyone will be bothered with what's actually going on."
"Until..."
"Until it's too late, yes."
posted by Grangousier at 3:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [41 favorites]
Oh, absolutely, but what I was thinking was that at some point in the distant past, the UK negotiator sits down with the EU negotiator, who explains that, well, this is the arrangement, and that's all there is to it. Because the EU is an oil tanker and the UK is a yacht. There's a silence and the UK negotiator says, "But we'll be lynched. We promised all sorts of things."
"Well, you should leave it until the very last minute, then they can do nothing about it."
"But that's years off. What do we do until then?"
"Brussels contains many fine restaurants. Come over every few months, we'll meet up for a chat, you can have some nice meals on expenses, go home and say we are more in agreement, or less in agreement, or it looks like a deal is imminent or a deal is impossible and there will be no deal and as long as you say the opposite of what you said last time it will keep them talking."
"We can't keep that up for years, though, surely. Won't they figure it out?"
"Oh, no, they're mostly interested in shouting at each other. As long as they can do that, I don't think anyone will be bothered with what's actually going on."
"Until..."
"Until it's too late, yes."
posted by Grangousier at 3:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [41 favorites]
I've forgiven those who voted for Brexit but realised they were conned by lying scum who only wanted to enrich themselves at the cost of the rest of us. I will never forgive those that still support it, for the pain they have inflicted on me and mine over the last 4 years, and the rights they have stolen from me. I hope the small minded apoplexy they get because we made any deal at all chokes them in their own bile.
Hmmmm. As an American this seems vaguely familiar... Sad day that has been slowly coming for years.
posted by chasles at 3:52 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
Hmmmm. As an American this seems vaguely familiar... Sad day that has been slowly coming for years.
posted by chasles at 3:52 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
Interesting that Ursula von der Leyen chose to quote Eliot's Little Gidding in her final speech: 'What we call the beginning is often the end, / And to make an end is to make a beginning.' More than just a graceful gesture, it suggests she was well briefed about the British sense of exceptionalism: Little Gidding, after all, is a wartime poem and includes the famous line, 'History is now and England.' There may be another meaning too, as one EU official is quoted here as saying 'the ending was in the beginnings' .. meaning, I presume, that once the UK had set out its initial red lines, the shape of the final deal was fairly predictable.
For the months and years ahead, may I suggest a motto from another of the Four Quartets: 'There is only the fight to recover what has been lost .. and now, under conditions / That seem unpropitious.'
posted by verstegan at 4:02 PM on December 24, 2020 [16 favorites]
For the months and years ahead, may I suggest a motto from another of the Four Quartets: 'There is only the fight to recover what has been lost .. and now, under conditions / That seem unpropitious.'
posted by verstegan at 4:02 PM on December 24, 2020 [16 favorites]
I vaguely recall the British resentful of being excluded from the European Union in the early 70's.
posted by rochrobbb at 4:23 PM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by rochrobbb at 4:23 PM on December 24, 2020 [3 favorites]
And I have to wonder why this fixation on fish resonates eerily with Magna Carta trutherism.
Particularly weird when the English don't even eat that much fish even if you count fish & chips. Their primary fish market is export rather than internal consumption. So they got completely hung up on fishing rights for a small industry that is primarily for export (and which for a large part has been sold off to European companies). It turns out sovereignty is a simple abstract concept that explodes into a million pieces when it encounters the complexity of reality.
posted by srboisvert at 4:25 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
Particularly weird when the English don't even eat that much fish even if you count fish & chips. Their primary fish market is export rather than internal consumption. So they got completely hung up on fishing rights for a small industry that is primarily for export (and which for a large part has been sold off to European companies). It turns out sovereignty is a simple abstract concept that explodes into a million pieces when it encounters the complexity of reality.
posted by srboisvert at 4:25 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
I vaguely recall the British resentful of being excluded from the European Union in the early 70's.
Yeah...De Gaulle didn't think we were capable of committing to the European project. Funny that.
Here's the thing that's most ridiculous about this deal: it won't even resolve the split in the Tory party. It will paper over the most significant cracks for a while. It might even get them to the next election, although I'm sceptical. But the idea that we should to just walk away entirely, on the basis that then we'll be able to get deals we deserve, and then all those foreigners will realise that we're the best country and give us what we want, is already well established among the headbangers. And pretty soon they'll be ready to have a go at fucking up the country even more.
Johnson's a lazy, unprincipled, incompetent prick, who has caused untold harm to this country. But the most terrifying thing about his premiership is that sane people now have to hope he manages to cling on to it for as long as possible, given the utterly demented alternatives.
posted by howfar at 4:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
Yeah...De Gaulle didn't think we were capable of committing to the European project. Funny that.
Here's the thing that's most ridiculous about this deal: it won't even resolve the split in the Tory party. It will paper over the most significant cracks for a while. It might even get them to the next election, although I'm sceptical. But the idea that we should to just walk away entirely, on the basis that then we'll be able to get deals we deserve, and then all those foreigners will realise that we're the best country and give us what we want, is already well established among the headbangers. And pretty soon they'll be ready to have a go at fucking up the country even more.
Johnson's a lazy, unprincipled, incompetent prick, who has caused untold harm to this country. But the most terrifying thing about his premiership is that sane people now have to hope he manages to cling on to it for as long as possible, given the utterly demented alternatives.
posted by howfar at 4:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
Apparently the Erasmus program is being replaced by the "Turing scheme", named after Alan Turing, a fantastic man who let's not forget was chemically castrated and tortured by the British government in 1952 for the crime of being gay. This was announced by a PM who has used homophobic slurs, publicly, on more than one occasion.
To be fair, it's not named after Alan Turing, but after Martin Shkreli's price-gouging racket.
I get the feeling that one of the UK's red lines was not being in Erasmus, and the EU would have pushed for them to be in it, but gave in on this token culture-war punching-bag issue in return for the UK folding on economically meaningful things. This way, a generation of Brits grows up who have never fraternised with the enemy, who know only stereotypes of their poor hygiene, disgusting culinary practices and generally treacherous ways.
posted by acb at 4:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
To be fair, it's not named after Alan Turing, but after Martin Shkreli's price-gouging racket.
I get the feeling that one of the UK's red lines was not being in Erasmus, and the EU would have pushed for them to be in it, but gave in on this token culture-war punching-bag issue in return for the UK folding on economically meaningful things. This way, a generation of Brits grows up who have never fraternised with the enemy, who know only stereotypes of their poor hygiene, disgusting culinary practices and generally treacherous ways.
posted by acb at 4:46 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
We're basically one referendum away from Scottish independence,
Westminster has made it clear that a Scottish referendum would not be allowed in the next 20 years. If Holyrood insists on running an unlawful one, the officials can be arrested as they were in Catalonia, and presumably charged with sedition or some similarly weighty crime against state. Either they'll put a lid on this as happened in Catalonia and Quebec, or it'll escalate to a full-scale Irish-style civil war, in which case, Westminster is probably betting on an intelligence-led advantage at being able to knock out pro-secession social networks by knowing exactly which nodes to remove shortly before the SHTF. (Between Five Eyes mass-surveilance data and data obtained from adtech by shady military contractors, they'd have a map of everyone in Scotland, how sympathetic they are to independence and how crucial a role they would play in relaying messages when SHTF.)
posted by acb at 4:52 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
Westminster has made it clear that a Scottish referendum would not be allowed in the next 20 years. If Holyrood insists on running an unlawful one, the officials can be arrested as they were in Catalonia, and presumably charged with sedition or some similarly weighty crime against state. Either they'll put a lid on this as happened in Catalonia and Quebec, or it'll escalate to a full-scale Irish-style civil war, in which case, Westminster is probably betting on an intelligence-led advantage at being able to knock out pro-secession social networks by knowing exactly which nodes to remove shortly before the SHTF. (Between Five Eyes mass-surveilance data and data obtained from adtech by shady military contractors, they'd have a map of everyone in Scotland, how sympathetic they are to independence and how crucial a role they would play in relaying messages when SHTF.)
posted by acb at 4:52 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
I look forward to oblivion. Asuncion? Albion!
posted by parmanparman at 5:14 PM on December 24, 2020
posted by parmanparman at 5:14 PM on December 24, 2020
I'm not surprised at Johnson coming home for Christmas with a gift he picked up at the airport. UK politics with respect to the EU has always been inconsiderate at best. I'm a little surprised at the unity shown by the EU. I think it's faced a number of serious challenges over the past couple of years, of which Brexit was just one, and come out stronger. It's sad that the UK is leaving, but the Anglo system does feel different, legally, economically, architecturally, aesthetically.
posted by dmh at 5:24 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by dmh at 5:24 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
Is it possible that the EU and UK negotiators realised months (if not years) ago that this was the only available outcome and they also realised that the only way they'd get away with it would be to slip it under the wire on Christmas EveThere's one problem with the UK Govt Playing 12 Dimensional Chess theory.
These people are fucking idiots.
Anyone who's had any dealings with the UK Govt over Brexit spends the first few months trying to process what has happened and understand what devilish game they are playing. Eventually the horrible realisation dawns. It's not subterfuge, these people are fucking idiots. Like, you think "hmmm that can't be right, maybe I'm wrong, surely there's a mistake" So you clarify and double check and are stunned when you come to the conclusion they literally don't know what they're doing.
Just this week I had to correct the misnaming of their own fucking country in a release before sending it out.
It's train guys as far as the eye can see.
posted by fullerine at 5:38 PM on December 24, 2020 [35 favorites]
I'm a little surprised at the unity shown by the EU. I think it's faced a number of serious challenges over the past couple of years, of which Brexit was just one, and come out stronger.
One of the things revealed by people involved on the EU side right at the start was that they were pretty afraid of British negotiators - who had a strong reputation at that point as canny and able to find a way to a deal that others couldn't - swooping in right after the referendum result and talking to the individual member states, and getting them to fight amongst themselves over what mandate to give the EU. It's the EU who actually do such talks, but their directions are given by the Council, made up of member state ministers. They particularly feared a split being exploited between the historically UK-friendly countries such as the Dutch and possibly Germany, vs France and the south, with Ireland potentially being used as a wedge against EU solidarity.
They literally couldn't believe that Cameron had zero plan for what he'd do if he lost the referendum, and then resigned, had a leadership election and eventually handed the reins to May, who then wasted even more time trying to find some sort of consensus inside the tory party, and sacked her most EU experienced staff. All that giving the EU countries months and months to hammer out their differences with no interference at all from the British. So when it came down to actually start talks, the EU-wide consensus was well-established as to what options were on the table for the UK depending upon how close it wanted to stay (in or out of single market and customs union, ways to resolve the Irish border etc etc), and the consequences for those choices. And we've been working our way through that playbook ever since, as once you do get the 27 to agree on something, it's *really* hard to change thir minds, and it turns out banging on the table and insulting everyone in the EU does not, in fact, make Johnny Foreigner roll over and do what they're told.
This graph is from 2017. The "Canada" vs no-deal options should look pretty fucking familiar.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:49 PM on December 24, 2020 [32 favorites]
One of the things revealed by people involved on the EU side right at the start was that they were pretty afraid of British negotiators - who had a strong reputation at that point as canny and able to find a way to a deal that others couldn't - swooping in right after the referendum result and talking to the individual member states, and getting them to fight amongst themselves over what mandate to give the EU. It's the EU who actually do such talks, but their directions are given by the Council, made up of member state ministers. They particularly feared a split being exploited between the historically UK-friendly countries such as the Dutch and possibly Germany, vs France and the south, with Ireland potentially being used as a wedge against EU solidarity.
They literally couldn't believe that Cameron had zero plan for what he'd do if he lost the referendum, and then resigned, had a leadership election and eventually handed the reins to May, who then wasted even more time trying to find some sort of consensus inside the tory party, and sacked her most EU experienced staff. All that giving the EU countries months and months to hammer out their differences with no interference at all from the British. So when it came down to actually start talks, the EU-wide consensus was well-established as to what options were on the table for the UK depending upon how close it wanted to stay (in or out of single market and customs union, ways to resolve the Irish border etc etc), and the consequences for those choices. And we've been working our way through that playbook ever since, as once you do get the 27 to agree on something, it's *really* hard to change thir minds, and it turns out banging on the table and insulting everyone in the EU does not, in fact, make Johnny Foreigner roll over and do what they're told.
This graph is from 2017. The "Canada" vs no-deal options should look pretty fucking familiar.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:49 PM on December 24, 2020 [32 favorites]
.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:26 PM on December 24, 2020
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:26 PM on December 24, 2020
It's gutting to see a country moving this way.
. . .
A recurring feeling I have from living in the U.S. is being held hostage by 30% of our country's population. It absolutely sucks having to be held back by conservatives.
posted by ichomp at 8:28 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
. . .
A recurring feeling I have from living in the U.S. is being held hostage by 30% of our country's population. It absolutely sucks having to be held back by conservatives.
posted by ichomp at 8:28 PM on December 24, 2020 [10 favorites]
Westminster has made it clear that a Scottish referendum would not be allowed in the next 20 years. If Holyrood insists on running an unlawful one, the officials can be arrested as they were in Catalonia, and presumably charged with sedition or some similarly weighty crime against state.
Where did you get this nonsense from?
posted by ambrosen at 8:36 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
Where did you get this nonsense from?
posted by ambrosen at 8:36 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
> fullerine: "It's not subterfuge, these people are fucking idiots."
For me, probably the sharpest indication of this is when David Davis thought that a post-Brexit UK could negotiate individual trade deals with Germany, France, etc... and somehow got appointed Minister Brexit minster anyways. It's the kind of fundamental ignorance and stupidity* that, in a saner world, would be career-ending but turned out to be kind of the opposite. I analogize it to having a person who proposes that soccer/football players should just pick up the ball with their hands and throw it into the goal rather than kick it around with their feet since that'd be much more efficient... and then having that person be put in charge of the national team.
------------------
* His idea does not merely betray simple ignorance of how trade deals with the EU works, but it is also fundamentally illogical. If Germany were free to negotiate individual trade deals with other countries while being a part of the EU, why couldn't the UK do the same without leaving the EU?
posted by mhum at 8:42 PM on December 24, 2020 [29 favorites]
For me, probably the sharpest indication of this is when David Davis thought that a post-Brexit UK could negotiate individual trade deals with Germany, France, etc... and somehow got appointed Minister Brexit minster anyways. It's the kind of fundamental ignorance and stupidity* that, in a saner world, would be career-ending but turned out to be kind of the opposite. I analogize it to having a person who proposes that soccer/football players should just pick up the ball with their hands and throw it into the goal rather than kick it around with their feet since that'd be much more efficient... and then having that person be put in charge of the national team.
------------------
* His idea does not merely betray simple ignorance of how trade deals with the EU works, but it is also fundamentally illogical. If Germany were free to negotiate individual trade deals with other countries while being a part of the EU, why couldn't the UK do the same without leaving the EU?
posted by mhum at 8:42 PM on December 24, 2020 [29 favorites]
Seems to be a reference to the "once in a generation" statement from years back, ambrosen.
A decent-sized Scottish export has just been quashed: apparently there's $112 million trade in seed potatoes to Ireland (both Northern and the Republic). These can no longer be moved. This is tremendously bad.
posted by scruss at 8:45 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
A decent-sized Scottish export has just been quashed: apparently there's $112 million trade in seed potatoes to Ireland (both Northern and the Republic). These can no longer be moved. This is tremendously bad.
posted by scruss at 8:45 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
apparently there's $112 million trade in seed potatoes to Ireland […]
Per other sources, perhaps that should be UKP 120m? To put that figure into context, theentire UK fishing industry is worth about UKP 437m. So unless Brexit increases the value if UK fishing by about 25% (unlikely IMO) the net loss from one outweighs the gain from the other.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:57 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
Per other sources, perhaps that should be UKP 120m? To put that figure into context, the
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:57 PM on December 24, 2020 [1 favorite]
His idea does not merely betray simple ignorance of how trade deals with the EU works, but it is also fundamentally illogical. If Germany were free to negotiate individual trade deals with other countries while being a part of the EU, why couldn't the UK do the same without leaving the EU?
Brexiters where big on bilateral trade deals, which is great, except absolutely no one does that sort of deal anymore. It's always blocks of countries in a deal since it's easier to balance the needs and requirements across a bunch of different markets. The UK leadership were living in a past that didn't exist anymore (and was not coming back).
posted by jmauro at 10:44 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
Brexiters where big on bilateral trade deals, which is great, except absolutely no one does that sort of deal anymore. It's always blocks of countries in a deal since it's easier to balance the needs and requirements across a bunch of different markets. The UK leadership were living in a past that didn't exist anymore (and was not coming back).
posted by jmauro at 10:44 PM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
The UK leadership were living in a past that didn't exist anymore (and was not coming back).
This has been true if the Tories for decades.
posted by Dysk at 10:56 PM on December 24, 2020 [12 favorites]
This has been true if the Tories for decades.
posted by Dysk at 10:56 PM on December 24, 2020 [12 favorites]
The UK leadership were living in a past that didn't exist anymore (and was not coming back).
You know, I haven't heard of anyone test flying the CANZUK balloon in a while. (Some sort of Canada-Australia-New Zealand-UK trade commonwealth) Did those folks go back to playing Risk?
posted by bartleby at 11:21 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
You know, I haven't heard of anyone test flying the CANZUK balloon in a while. (Some sort of Canada-Australia-New Zealand-UK trade commonwealth) Did those folks go back to playing Risk?
posted by bartleby at 11:21 PM on December 24, 2020 [2 favorites]
CANZUK, well, I don't think there'd be much interest from the middle of that horrid acronym. When UK joined EC in 1973 NZ lost >50% of its export buyers, and very unlikely to build that back up again; currently it's 12%. UK has never been loyal to NZ.
posted by unearthed at 11:49 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by unearthed at 11:49 PM on December 24, 2020 [7 favorites]
apparently there's $112 million trade in seed potatoes to Ireland […]
Per other sources, perhaps that should be UKP 120m?
It will be. Just give the currency markets a few months.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:10 AM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
Per other sources, perhaps that should be UKP 120m?
It will be. Just give the currency markets a few months.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:10 AM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
A decent-sized Scottish export has just been quashed: apparently there's $112 million trade in seed potatoes to Ireland (both Northern and the Republic). These can no longer be moved. This is tremendously bad.
So, we are now not permitted to "export" seed potatoes from Great Britain (part of the United Kingdom) to Northern Ireland (also part of the United Kingdom).
"Taking back control".
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:47 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
So, we are now not permitted to "export" seed potatoes from Great Britain (part of the United Kingdom) to Northern Ireland (also part of the United Kingdom).
"Taking back control".
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:47 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
Where did you get this nonsense from?
I'm still trying to work out who "Westminster" is. Given that Labour could quite conceivably find itself unable to form a government in 2024 without the SNP, I don't think it can mean the House of Commons. I agree with scruss that a "20 year" moratorium is probably picking up Johnson's reference to the 2014 referendum having been described as a "once in a generation" event.
For those who may be confused: although the legal position is untested, the Scottish Parliament is likely at liberty to hold at least some form of consultative referendum without agreement from the UK Parliament. What would be clearly illegal would be an attempt to leave the Union without legislation by the UK Parliament to enable this, which isn't the same thing at all.
It's possible that a UK government might try to block a consultative referendum, if one were organised, but I suspect it won't come to that, and that Holyrood will be able to obtain agreement to another binding referendum within the next decade.
I don't think there's any significant possibility of civil war along the lines of Ireland. Leaving aside the profound changes in warfare itself that have taken place over the last 99 years, and the fundamentally different conditions that apply on almost every level, the immediate political damage that any government would suffer in the event of such a conflict is just immense. The idea just doesn't seem based in the reality of British politics.
posted by howfar at 1:24 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
I'm still trying to work out who "Westminster" is. Given that Labour could quite conceivably find itself unable to form a government in 2024 without the SNP, I don't think it can mean the House of Commons. I agree with scruss that a "20 year" moratorium is probably picking up Johnson's reference to the 2014 referendum having been described as a "once in a generation" event.
For those who may be confused: although the legal position is untested, the Scottish Parliament is likely at liberty to hold at least some form of consultative referendum without agreement from the UK Parliament. What would be clearly illegal would be an attempt to leave the Union without legislation by the UK Parliament to enable this, which isn't the same thing at all.
It's possible that a UK government might try to block a consultative referendum, if one were organised, but I suspect it won't come to that, and that Holyrood will be able to obtain agreement to another binding referendum within the next decade.
I don't think there's any significant possibility of civil war along the lines of Ireland. Leaving aside the profound changes in warfare itself that have taken place over the last 99 years, and the fundamentally different conditions that apply on almost every level, the immediate political damage that any government would suffer in the event of such a conflict is just immense. The idea just doesn't seem based in the reality of British politics.
posted by howfar at 1:24 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
re: CANZUK: as a Canadian, all the ideological and identitarian “appeal” (viz. the appeal to shared Englishness, whiteness, history of colonialism, etc.) makes me queasy. however, i do find the idea of greater mobility (esp in regards to study, work, residence) appealing (i was seriously considering trying to get EU citizenship (via ancestry claim) a couple years ago mainly for that reason), though of course in terms of geographical proximity the notion is risible
posted by LeviQayin at 3:12 AM on December 25, 2020
posted by LeviQayin at 3:12 AM on December 25, 2020
Johnson has ruled out any Scottish secession referendum, which means sod all given whom it's coming from. What's more significant is that Starmer has also ruled it out.
I suspect Johnson, having been born on third base and had his ego primped by yes-men throughout most of his life, believes that, had he been in charge in 1916, he could have successfully put down the Easter Rising and kept Dublin under the Crown, because he's cleverer than the unfortunate chaps who were in charge.
posted by acb at 3:35 AM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
I suspect Johnson, having been born on third base and had his ego primped by yes-men throughout most of his life, believes that, had he been in charge in 1916, he could have successfully put down the Easter Rising and kept Dublin under the Crown, because he's cleverer than the unfortunate chaps who were in charge.
posted by acb at 3:35 AM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
NYTimes reporting: For the European Union, It’s a Pretty Good Deal
It certainly feels that way from here. I have followed the process because I have family in the UK, and I'm worried for them, but most people here have tuned out. The idea that the EU wouldn't be able to agree on Brexit (or on anything else) has always been rubbish, and part of the Brexit mythology. The EU is a huge machine, and it works slowly, but it has a strong culture of compromise that has worked well for decades. When the UK was inside the EU, it was able to make deals with other countries and block some of the more progressive ideas coming from France and other nations in the "south". But you can't do that when you are outside, obviously, and it was extremely stupid to think so.
I also think some UK politicians overestimated the strength of the nationalistic parties in other countries, when it comes to leaving the EU. Even in Poland and Hungary, where the far right legitimately has a strong popular support, people don't want to leave.
Also, Brexit didn't inspire other Europeans to want to leave, contrariwise, people who had flirted with ideas of "sovereignty" changed their minds as soon as they saw how stupid Brexit is.
Another thing: EU is what the European voters want it to be. Back when it was the EEC, it may have made sense to see it as an instrument of capitalism. Maybe. But today the center-right policies reflect the fact that there is a center-right majority, both in the parliament and in the council. Brexit diminished that majority, and getting rid of Farage and his ilk was a big relief, but there still is a majority. I wish there wasn't, but the COVID relief package is an expression of the diminishing power of the right within the EU, and I fully expect there is more to come.
posted by mumimor at 3:39 AM on December 25, 2020 [18 favorites]
It has been a satisfying end to a difficult year for Ms. von der Leyen and the European Union as a whole. The bloc was buffeted by serious challenges ranging from the pandemic to securing a new seven-year budget and a sizable virus recovery fund to help those countries most badly hit. That fund embodies a collective European debt for the first time.(My bold)
The E.U. also has had to cope with internal challenges to the rule of law and continuing antagonism from President Trump; craft a tougher stance toward China and Turkey; agree on sanctions against Belarus; try to find a coherent response to calls for strategic autonomy and more European defense; come together on climate goals; and prepare positions for the administration of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Compared with many of those issues, Brexit was always a “third-order problem,’’ said Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, a Brussels research institution.
It certainly feels that way from here. I have followed the process because I have family in the UK, and I'm worried for them, but most people here have tuned out. The idea that the EU wouldn't be able to agree on Brexit (or on anything else) has always been rubbish, and part of the Brexit mythology. The EU is a huge machine, and it works slowly, but it has a strong culture of compromise that has worked well for decades. When the UK was inside the EU, it was able to make deals with other countries and block some of the more progressive ideas coming from France and other nations in the "south". But you can't do that when you are outside, obviously, and it was extremely stupid to think so.
I also think some UK politicians overestimated the strength of the nationalistic parties in other countries, when it comes to leaving the EU. Even in Poland and Hungary, where the far right legitimately has a strong popular support, people don't want to leave.
Also, Brexit didn't inspire other Europeans to want to leave, contrariwise, people who had flirted with ideas of "sovereignty" changed their minds as soon as they saw how stupid Brexit is.
Another thing: EU is what the European voters want it to be. Back when it was the EEC, it may have made sense to see it as an instrument of capitalism. Maybe. But today the center-right policies reflect the fact that there is a center-right majority, both in the parliament and in the council. Brexit diminished that majority, and getting rid of Farage and his ilk was a big relief, but there still is a majority. I wish there wasn't, but the COVID relief package is an expression of the diminishing power of the right within the EU, and I fully expect there is more to come.
posted by mumimor at 3:39 AM on December 25, 2020 [18 favorites]
They literally couldn't believe that Cameron had zero plan for what he'd do if he lost the referendum
Not that I really want to defend David fucking Cameron, but he was never actually in favor of Brexit and thought the result would come out in his favor. Which it probably would have if not for external influences. It was seen by him as a means to consolidate his power and shut up the morons in his party that were agitating against the EU from beginning to end.
Like every idiot who plays russian roulette, he's still an fool for doing so, of course, but his choices weren't quite so idiotic in context as they so obviously were in hindsight. He may well have believed that no Parliament or PM could be so stupid as to follow through with anything more than a statement of vague future intent to leave and periodic mouth noises confirming that intent until people either forgot, dropped caring, or changed their mind. It's not as if binding referendums are actually a thing that exists in the UK's political system, after all. Any such vote is by definition only advisory, no matter how it is presented.
Every MP who voted to advance the process and implement the results shares in the blame for the clusterfuck. It was quite clear at all times that there was no meaningful consensus on which to base such a drastic change. Not that consensus among the public is required, but at the time everyone was speaking as if it existed and their hands were tied. Will of the people and all that. As if it's actually a fucking democracy.
posted by wierdo at 4:56 AM on December 25, 2020 [14 favorites]
Not that I really want to defend David fucking Cameron, but he was never actually in favor of Brexit and thought the result would come out in his favor. Which it probably would have if not for external influences. It was seen by him as a means to consolidate his power and shut up the morons in his party that were agitating against the EU from beginning to end.
Like every idiot who plays russian roulette, he's still an fool for doing so, of course, but his choices weren't quite so idiotic in context as they so obviously were in hindsight. He may well have believed that no Parliament or PM could be so stupid as to follow through with anything more than a statement of vague future intent to leave and periodic mouth noises confirming that intent until people either forgot, dropped caring, or changed their mind. It's not as if binding referendums are actually a thing that exists in the UK's political system, after all. Any such vote is by definition only advisory, no matter how it is presented.
Every MP who voted to advance the process and implement the results shares in the blame for the clusterfuck. It was quite clear at all times that there was no meaningful consensus on which to base such a drastic change. Not that consensus among the public is required, but at the time everyone was speaking as if it existed and their hands were tied. Will of the people and all that. As if it's actually a fucking democracy.
posted by wierdo at 4:56 AM on December 25, 2020 [14 favorites]
Westminster has made it clear that a Scottish referendum would not be allowed in the next 20 years. If Holyrood insists on running an unlawful one, the officials can be arrested as they were in Catalonia, and presumably charged with sedition or some similarly weighty crime against state.
Where did you get this nonsense from?
spin meister special from the spooks at mi5
posted by infini at 5:32 AM on December 25, 2020
Where did you get this nonsense from?
spin meister special from the spooks at mi5
posted by infini at 5:32 AM on December 25, 2020
What's more significant is that Starmer has also ruled it out.
The thing is that this also means sod all if Labour ends up reliant on SNP (and potentially Green, Lib Dem and SDLP) votes in order to govern. What the next election will look like is anybody's guess, but it's quite possible that Johnson's large majority is an anomaly, and that the tight margins of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections will be reproduced in the next GE. Labour is, for good electoral reasons, highly resistant to both Scottish independence and electoral reform, but if it's a choice between that and another election (or, worse, a Tory minority government which allows Scottish independence and exploits the rightward shift in electoral gravity this would cause to secure a workable majority at a GE held shortly after independence) it may have no choice but to acquiesce.
On the question of whether something in the form of the Anglo-Irish War is plausible, apart from all the ways in which 21st century Scottish nationalism differs from Irish nationalism in the early 20th century, and speaking to your specific point, I just don't think Johnson has the courage to push things to real conflict. The man's a bottler through and through. He talks a big game but he's fundamentally weak, lazy and desperate for approval. And with the EU 20 miles away on one side and 0 miles away or the other, and able to operate independently of the UK at the UN, it's hardly just the electorate he'd need to be scared of. While I wouldn't put it past Patel to use force just for the fun of it and damn the consequences, her chances of leadership are minimal: she's very unlikely to be agreeable to a wide enough range of MPs to make it to the members' ballot, and less popular with the membership than Sunak in any case.
Possibly more significant than any of this is that I don't believe that the SNP is going to squander the opportunity for both independence and being in government after independence by driving things to the (in my mind fairly inconceivable) point where any kind of serious armed conflict becomes a possibility. Apart from anything else, the conditions for the development of an equivalent to the Irish Volunteers just don't pertain in either general or specific terms. A terror campaign is more plausible in basic military terms, but the conditions that gave rise to the Troubles are pretty much entirely absent in Scotland. I don't see how the energy currently in nationalism is going to end up manifesting in those ways.
I don't think there's any way to be confident how things will go from here, but I think that the peaceful end of the Union by the end of the decade is plausible and possible, and much more likely than any more extreme scenario. I may be wrong, of course, but I'm not going to start worrying about those scenarios without clearer reasons than our shared general belief in the wrecklessness and wickedness of the Johnson adminstration. Times are bad, but I think it's easy to overestimate the amount of leeway that our newly vulnerable international position allows the UK.
posted by howfar at 5:50 AM on December 25, 2020 [9 favorites]
The thing is that this also means sod all if Labour ends up reliant on SNP (and potentially Green, Lib Dem and SDLP) votes in order to govern. What the next election will look like is anybody's guess, but it's quite possible that Johnson's large majority is an anomaly, and that the tight margins of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections will be reproduced in the next GE. Labour is, for good electoral reasons, highly resistant to both Scottish independence and electoral reform, but if it's a choice between that and another election (or, worse, a Tory minority government which allows Scottish independence and exploits the rightward shift in electoral gravity this would cause to secure a workable majority at a GE held shortly after independence) it may have no choice but to acquiesce.
On the question of whether something in the form of the Anglo-Irish War is plausible, apart from all the ways in which 21st century Scottish nationalism differs from Irish nationalism in the early 20th century, and speaking to your specific point, I just don't think Johnson has the courage to push things to real conflict. The man's a bottler through and through. He talks a big game but he's fundamentally weak, lazy and desperate for approval. And with the EU 20 miles away on one side and 0 miles away or the other, and able to operate independently of the UK at the UN, it's hardly just the electorate he'd need to be scared of. While I wouldn't put it past Patel to use force just for the fun of it and damn the consequences, her chances of leadership are minimal: she's very unlikely to be agreeable to a wide enough range of MPs to make it to the members' ballot, and less popular with the membership than Sunak in any case.
Possibly more significant than any of this is that I don't believe that the SNP is going to squander the opportunity for both independence and being in government after independence by driving things to the (in my mind fairly inconceivable) point where any kind of serious armed conflict becomes a possibility. Apart from anything else, the conditions for the development of an equivalent to the Irish Volunteers just don't pertain in either general or specific terms. A terror campaign is more plausible in basic military terms, but the conditions that gave rise to the Troubles are pretty much entirely absent in Scotland. I don't see how the energy currently in nationalism is going to end up manifesting in those ways.
I don't think there's any way to be confident how things will go from here, but I think that the peaceful end of the Union by the end of the decade is plausible and possible, and much more likely than any more extreme scenario. I may be wrong, of course, but I'm not going to start worrying about those scenarios without clearer reasons than our shared general belief in the wrecklessness and wickedness of the Johnson adminstration. Times are bad, but I think it's easy to overestimate the amount of leeway that our newly vulnerable international position allows the UK.
posted by howfar at 5:50 AM on December 25, 2020 [9 favorites]
A full-scale Anglo-Scottish War would be a stretch that Westminster might not prevail at (Brexit will hit the economy hard, and being able to raise and supply an occupation force is by no means certain). A police action to suppress Scottish secessionism is more likely to take the form of something far more localised and surgically targeted; perhaps it would look closer to Operation Condor; an intelligence-led operation to neutralise secessionist elements before they can stir the pot.
posted by acb at 5:54 AM on December 25, 2020
posted by acb at 5:54 AM on December 25, 2020
As an American outsider, pulling the UK out of Erasmus sure looks to me like the deliberately malicious shit garnish on this otherwise inept and bumbling last-minute drugstore purchase of a stale Whitman's sampler Christmas gift. Shutting future British students out of a well-established, enriching study program and for what?
posted by 4rtemis at 7:08 AM on December 25, 2020
“So what we are doing is producing a UK scheme for students to go around the world,” the prime minister said... so students will have the opportunity not just to go to European universities but to go to the best universities in the world.Sure he is.
posted by 4rtemis at 7:08 AM on December 25, 2020
(or, worse, a Tory minority government which allows Scottish independence and exploits the rightward shift in electoral gravity this would cause to secure a workable majority at a GE held shortly after independence)
That is something that doesn't get mentioned as often as I think it should. Scotland generally doesn't vote Tory, so getting rid of Scotland and their seats in Westminster would change parliamentary arithmetic to the benefit of the Tories, allowing them to form a government with fewer seats. Most PMs have considered preservation of the union as essential for their legacy, but I'm not at all convinced that the current lot of Tories are of that mind. Wrecking the union ought to be disastrous politically, but if there is one thing the Tories are good at, it is evading responsibility.
posted by swr at 7:38 AM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
That is something that doesn't get mentioned as often as I think it should. Scotland generally doesn't vote Tory, so getting rid of Scotland and their seats in Westminster would change parliamentary arithmetic to the benefit of the Tories, allowing them to form a government with fewer seats. Most PMs have considered preservation of the union as essential for their legacy, but I'm not at all convinced that the current lot of Tories are of that mind. Wrecking the union ought to be disastrous politically, but if there is one thing the Tories are good at, it is evading responsibility.
posted by swr at 7:38 AM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
The Economist, writing a few days ago about the government's handling of Covid and Brexit, identifies a common thread. Optimism bias is not well-suited to dark times. How Covid-19 and Brexit combined to isolate Britain.
Finally, what [David] Gauke identifies as the government's “optimism bias” has also contributed to this crisis. Throughout the pandemic and the Brexit negotiations, Boris Johnson—whose reluctance to deliver bad news is well known—has over-promised and under-delivered. By consistently looking on the bright side, the prime minister has failed to prepare for a darker outcome. So he was slow to put the country into lockdown in March, thus exacerbating the initial outbreak, slow to get a test-and-trace system up and running, and slow to react to news of the new Covid-19 strain. And on Brexit, his government has consistently promised that the deal would be “the easiest in human history” and that “we hold all the cards”. Given that Britain is more vulnerable to the consequences of “no deal” than any other European country, that is patently untrue; and yet the government appears to believe it enough to take Britain to the cliff-edge, and perhaps over it.posted by russilwvong at 8:20 AM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
Without question the UK leaving the EU is a loss for all. But,
I'm impressed, as an EU citizen, at just how agreeable this deal is. Putting aside the Poles and others who made a living in the UK, it looks like the EU didn't lose pretty much anything nor did it budge one bit. I'm also impressed at how this deal appears to be presented as a positive outcome in the UK press.
It looks like existing trends will accelerate: new factory jobs for Poland (this is where East Asia will continue to invest into for the foreseeable future), finance to Frankfurt and Amsterdam, fintech to the Baltics ... I don't see the upside for the UK at all here. Fish?
posted by romanb at 9:27 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
I'm impressed, as an EU citizen, at just how agreeable this deal is. Putting aside the Poles and others who made a living in the UK, it looks like the EU didn't lose pretty much anything nor did it budge one bit. I'm also impressed at how this deal appears to be presented as a positive outcome in the UK press.
It looks like existing trends will accelerate: new factory jobs for Poland (this is where East Asia will continue to invest into for the foreseeable future), finance to Frankfurt and Amsterdam, fintech to the Baltics ... I don't see the upside for the UK at all here. Fish?
posted by romanb at 9:27 AM on December 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
I don't see the upside for the UK at all here.
Xenophobes will no longer have to struggle to understand plumbers and electricians with thick Slavic accents.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:30 AM on December 25, 2020 [9 favorites]
Xenophobes will no longer have to struggle to understand plumbers and electricians with thick Slavic accents.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:30 AM on December 25, 2020 [9 favorites]
Seriously though, Brexiteers act like this is going to be a return to the Empire and the Sterling area unaware that the rest of the world has moved on around them. At this point England could sink into the sea and nothing would really change with the world.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:34 AM on December 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:34 AM on December 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
England could sink into the sea
A bold adventure into a fresh environment ripe with opportunity to return Britannia to it's rightful status as ruler of the waves. Albeit, several feet underneath them.
posted by inpHilltr8r at 9:43 AM on December 25, 2020 [12 favorites]
A bold adventure into a fresh environment ripe with opportunity to return Britannia to it's rightful status as ruler of the waves. Albeit, several feet underneath them.
posted by inpHilltr8r at 9:43 AM on December 25, 2020 [12 favorites]
Optimism bias is not well-suited to dark times.
I find myself increasingly optimistic about the future these days, and just today I shared on twitter that I suffered from living in the happiest country in the world. However, back in 2018, just from the trajectory the blond leaders of the free world were on, I could see that there would be some kind of reckoning or crash in this big election year. In preparation, I changed my career direction and went back to school in fall 2019, in advance of an unknown but obvious inflection point. Mind you, even in my worst imaginings I hadn't seen the reality of this year, and thought it would be something like getting banned on twitter or the platform crashing and my business that depended on it would crash overnight etc.
Optimism and irresponsible lack of preparation (ant vs grasshopper) do not necessarily go together. One is optimistic precisely because one has prepared for the worst case scenario.
posted by infini at 9:50 AM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
I find myself increasingly optimistic about the future these days, and just today I shared on twitter that I suffered from living in the happiest country in the world. However, back in 2018, just from the trajectory the blond leaders of the free world were on, I could see that there would be some kind of reckoning or crash in this big election year. In preparation, I changed my career direction and went back to school in fall 2019, in advance of an unknown but obvious inflection point. Mind you, even in my worst imaginings I hadn't seen the reality of this year, and thought it would be something like getting banned on twitter or the platform crashing and my business that depended on it would crash overnight etc.
Optimism and irresponsible lack of preparation (ant vs grasshopper) do not necessarily go together. One is optimistic precisely because one has prepared for the worst case scenario.
posted by infini at 9:50 AM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
I don't see the upside for the UK at all here.
Well, we'll have blue passports, you see.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:01 AM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
Well, we'll have blue passports, you see.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:01 AM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
A bold adventure into a fresh environment ripe with opportunity to return Britannia to it's rightful status as ruler of the waves. Albeit, several feet underneath them.
And did those feet in ancient time
Walk upon Doggerland's seaweeds green...
posted by hangashore at 10:11 AM on December 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
And did those feet in ancient time
Walk upon Doggerland's seaweeds green...
posted by hangashore at 10:11 AM on December 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
Your Childhood Pet Rock: "Xenophobes will no longer have to struggle to understand plumbers and electricians with thick Slavic accents."
If this meant xenophobes could unclog their own shitfilled pipes and risk electrocution to get the Xmas lights up, it'd be a feature not a bug
posted by chavenet at 11:45 AM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
If this meant xenophobes could unclog their own shitfilled pipes and risk electrocution to get the Xmas lights up, it'd be a feature not a bug
posted by chavenet at 11:45 AM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
As an American outsider, pulling the UK out of Erasmus sure looks to me like the deliberately malicious shit garnish
As an American you should recognize the move as being a core part of the right's tactics. Taking away educational opportunities for the non-wealthy is a long standing conservative tradition on both sides of the pond. It helps consolidate the power of capital if you can reserve elite credentialing as the exclusive prerogative of the very wealthy.
posted by srboisvert at 12:37 PM on December 25, 2020 [26 favorites]
As an American you should recognize the move as being a core part of the right's tactics. Taking away educational opportunities for the non-wealthy is a long standing conservative tradition on both sides of the pond. It helps consolidate the power of capital if you can reserve elite credentialing as the exclusive prerogative of the very wealthy.
posted by srboisvert at 12:37 PM on December 25, 2020 [26 favorites]
Also, rooting out cosmopolitanism among the next generation. Generation X and millennials are already corrupted from fraternising with the garlic-eaters on Easyjet weekends and in the shared privation of the London sharehouse. But this way, the gammon can say, the future belongs to us. The hope is that there will be a sharp cutoff around 2005, with all Britons born after it seeing the Europeans as an irreconcilably alien and inherently hostile Other who do not share our values, and also smell funny.
Of course, this could backfire, and all things European could become counterculturally cool, the way vodka and Cuban cigars were during the Cold War.
posted by acb at 1:24 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
Of course, this could backfire, and all things European could become counterculturally cool, the way vodka and Cuban cigars were during the Cold War.
posted by acb at 1:24 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
Well, we'll have blue passports, you see.
Could've had that in the EU. Use of the standard burgundy is optional.
posted by Dysk at 2:21 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
Could've had that in the EU. Use of the standard burgundy is optional.
posted by Dysk at 2:21 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
But availing of the option wouldn't incite the nationalists.
posted by Mitheral at 2:25 PM on December 25, 2020
posted by Mitheral at 2:25 PM on December 25, 2020
I imagine Erasmus simply jarred with the fantasy of a post-Brexit Britain picking and choosing its way to inevitable success. It's a common Brexiteer argument. In this particular field of unicorns, rather than being fettered by structures of reciprocity with every Tom, Dick and Harry European university, a "sovereign" UK will be free to pursue similar deals on its own terms. Whether by way of CANZUK, Commonwealth brain-drain or simply bespoke exchange programmes with "suitable," institutions, elite UK universities will maintain exchange programmes with other such international elite institutions. We won't have to accept students from universities "we've never heard of" and the reciprocal impact on non-elite UK universities is likely held as of low relevance. It's genuinely indicative of The Overall Plan, such as it exists.
posted by deeker at 3:21 PM on December 25, 2020
posted by deeker at 3:21 PM on December 25, 2020
I imagine Erasmus simply jarred with the fantasy
....of forriners getting our money - "too expensive", and sending their kids over here. we don't need to send kids abroad to study. our unis are for OUR peeple. if they want to come, they can pay full whack. innit?
Sorry, your analysis is far too sophisticated for the likes of people for whom this policy was aimed. The 10 people who subscribe to your well-articulated snobbery* might have gave it a little push, but my guess is the vast majority of them came from the above viewpoint, even if they thought about Erasmus at all
Not saying you believe this snobbery, but just sayin' that it's far too salient for this bunch of fuckwits that inhabit and vote Leave-leaning-parties in the uk
posted by lalochezia at 3:51 PM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
Sorry, your analysis is far too sophisticated for the likes of people for whom this policy was aimed
The fact that this is Big News is almost entirely because the media is thoroughly bourgeois-cosmopolitan and actually cares about things like Erasmus. This policy, withdrawal from Erasmus, wasn't in any way at all aimed at the nativist knuckle-draggers, as I see it, and anyway, it could be easily predicted that, once the nativists did hear about it, they'd be on board with precisely the "forriners getting our money - "too expensive", and sending their kids over here. we don't need to send kids abroad to study. our unis are for OUR peeple. if they want to come, they can pay full whack. innit?" you put forward. If the elite, revanchist, snobbish and deluded architects of Brexit wanted to chase this particular unicorn (bespoke eilte-level academic cooperation), they could withdraw from Erasmus, safe in the knowledge the base-nativist vote would reflexively agree if and when they heard about it.
It's almost a perfect populist move. I honestly think if we understand Erasmus, we understand something profound about Brexit, its architects, constituencies and outcomes.
posted by deeker at 4:22 PM on December 25, 2020 [7 favorites]
The fact that this is Big News is almost entirely because the media is thoroughly bourgeois-cosmopolitan and actually cares about things like Erasmus. This policy, withdrawal from Erasmus, wasn't in any way at all aimed at the nativist knuckle-draggers, as I see it, and anyway, it could be easily predicted that, once the nativists did hear about it, they'd be on board with precisely the "forriners getting our money - "too expensive", and sending their kids over here. we don't need to send kids abroad to study. our unis are for OUR peeple. if they want to come, they can pay full whack. innit?" you put forward. If the elite, revanchist, snobbish and deluded architects of Brexit wanted to chase this particular unicorn (bespoke eilte-level academic cooperation), they could withdraw from Erasmus, safe in the knowledge the base-nativist vote would reflexively agree if and when they heard about it.
It's almost a perfect populist move. I honestly think if we understand Erasmus, we understand something profound about Brexit, its architects, constituencies and outcomes.
posted by deeker at 4:22 PM on December 25, 2020 [7 favorites]
I think that the reasoning behind dropping Erasmus went as far as "will I [Tory Minister's kids] directly lose out?" and "will it cause a noticeable giant clusterfuck if we drop it?".
The positive reasoning behind breaking everything is already a forgone conclusion: there is a baying mob cheering any and all destruction. It's a very low intensity mob, but it's a mob nonetheless, and it wants everything broken.
posted by ambrosen at 5:04 PM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
The positive reasoning behind breaking everything is already a forgone conclusion: there is a baying mob cheering any and all destruction. It's a very low intensity mob, but it's a mob nonetheless, and it wants everything broken.
posted by ambrosen at 5:04 PM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
I don't see the upside for the UK at all here.
It’s a ten to a hundred times better than no deal at all, even though it’s a 1,000 times worse than just staying in the EU. The upside is all relative to no deal.
posted by jmauro at 6:32 PM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
It’s a ten to a hundred times better than no deal at all, even though it’s a 1,000 times worse than just staying in the EU. The upside is all relative to no deal.
posted by jmauro at 6:32 PM on December 25, 2020 [5 favorites]
Keir Starmer faces Labour frontbench revolt over Brexit deal
Could dissenters on all sides be enough to scuttle the deal? Seems highly UNlikely to me, but damn, what a shitshow. Not entirely unexpected though, as supporting any Brexiter's deal is a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't sort of situation. (Have I mentioned shitshow?)
posted by swr at 6:42 PM on December 25, 2020
Could dissenters on all sides be enough to scuttle the deal? Seems highly UNlikely to me, but damn, what a shitshow. Not entirely unexpected though, as supporting any Brexiter's deal is a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't sort of situation. (Have I mentioned shitshow?)
posted by swr at 6:42 PM on December 25, 2020
There's nothing left to gain, politically or otherwise, from trying to scuttle the deal. There's no going back from 31/01/20. It's either this deal or bedlam.
The worst part is the UK rejoining becomes infinitely harder politically. I don't think this time around the UK would get its rebates, its exemptions from Schengen, and its exemptions from adopting the Euro. I don't know if it could ever stomach being an actual, factual EU member, no matter how cosmopolitan the children and grandchildren get.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:08 PM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
The worst part is the UK rejoining becomes infinitely harder politically. I don't think this time around the UK would get its rebates, its exemptions from Schengen, and its exemptions from adopting the Euro. I don't know if it could ever stomach being an actual, factual EU member, no matter how cosmopolitan the children and grandchildren get.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:08 PM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
There's nothing left to gain, politically or otherwise, from trying to scuttle the deal. There's no going back from 31/01/20. It's either this deal or bedlam.
I agree with your specific points, but if there is any lesson to be taken from the last four years, it is that bedlam has been legitimised as a political objective.
posted by swr at 9:45 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
I agree with your specific points, but if there is any lesson to be taken from the last four years, it is that bedlam has been legitimised as a political objective.
posted by swr at 9:45 PM on December 25, 2020 [3 favorites]
The worst part is the UK rejoining becomes infinitely harder politically
no shit! with all the cospompolitan kids or grandkids in the fuckin' world, why would the EU let the UK back in? this isn't a frictionless change; it took the last 4 years of pan-european socio-political energy and ate 50% of it, continent-wide., all for a big pile of nothing.
in addition, if you can "go out" then "go in again" what's to stop the fickle UK changing its mind and leaving again.
nope. we're out for the foreseeable future. .....by which time, other factors - AGW primarily - will make this discussion, in this form, moot.
posted by lalochezia at 10:31 PM on December 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
It’s a ten to a hundred times better than no deal at all, even though it’s a 1,000 times worse than just staying in the EU
True. 'Any deal is better than no deal' may not have been how it was sold, but of course it is.
posted by romanb at 11:08 PM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
True. 'Any deal is better than no deal' may not have been how it was sold, but of course it is.
posted by romanb at 11:08 PM on December 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
England could sink into the sea
Boris Johnson is a stupid Cnut
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:37 PM on December 25, 2020 [8 favorites]
Boris Johnson is a stupid Cnut
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:37 PM on December 25, 2020 [8 favorites]
Xenophobes will no longer have to struggle to understand plumbers and electricians with thick Slavic accents.
Obligatory Armstrong and Miller.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:45 AM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
Obligatory Armstrong and Miller.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:45 AM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
where the far right legitimately has a strong popular support
I'm not sure how the far right can ever legitimately be said to have popular support. Getting enough people to believe lies does not make the lies legitimate.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:50 AM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure how the far right can ever legitimately be said to have popular support. Getting enough people to believe lies does not make the lies legitimate.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:50 AM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
Getting enough people to believe lies does not make the lies legitimate.
I don't know. As I've grown older, I've grown out of the belief that if people just knew the truth, or their own good, they'd vote differently. Most of Victor Orban's or Donald Trump's or Boris Johnson's voters are probably ignorant, a lot of them aren't, and they are not necessarily stupid. They are voting for what they want. I think what they want is stupid, but they have a different opinion than me.
That said, conservatives all over the world seem to hate critical education. I don't think they have a grand 30 year plan for dumbing down the electorate, though that is the effect. I think it's a much more personal level. When little jr. comes home from school full of questions, they worry for his future, because in their personal experience, you get ahead by doing as you are told, brown-nosing those above and kicking those below.
posted by mumimor at 1:24 AM on December 26, 2020 [12 favorites]
I don't know. As I've grown older, I've grown out of the belief that if people just knew the truth, or their own good, they'd vote differently. Most of Victor Orban's or Donald Trump's or Boris Johnson's voters are probably ignorant, a lot of them aren't, and they are not necessarily stupid. They are voting for what they want. I think what they want is stupid, but they have a different opinion than me.
That said, conservatives all over the world seem to hate critical education. I don't think they have a grand 30 year plan for dumbing down the electorate, though that is the effect. I think it's a much more personal level. When little jr. comes home from school full of questions, they worry for his future, because in their personal experience, you get ahead by doing as you are told, brown-nosing those above and kicking those below.
posted by mumimor at 1:24 AM on December 26, 2020 [12 favorites]
The official gov.uk Twitter account promoted an article from Bloomberg highlighting all the nebulous potential positives of Brexit. #1 being "lower corporate tax". This has been my concern from the start; making the UK into (more of) a corporate tax haven. All that will do is make the elite more rich and do absolutely nothing for the nation as a whole.
I don't know how you look at Bezos paying less taxes than people on minimum wage and think that is something to strive for.
The people who will benefit from Brexit in the long-term (much like the people who orchestrated it) are the rich who don't have worry about the cost and availability of food, transport, housing and health care. Those are all academic issues and it all comes down to maximising profits and increasing the value of their portfolio.
The health and prosperity of the nation is decoupled from the ability to make money so there is little incentive to sacrifice even the smallest of immediate profits for long-term national benefits. Watch as we follow the Reagan playbook from here on.
posted by slimepuppy at 1:41 AM on December 26, 2020 [8 favorites]
I don't know how you look at Bezos paying less taxes than people on minimum wage and think that is something to strive for.
The people who will benefit from Brexit in the long-term (much like the people who orchestrated it) are the rich who don't have worry about the cost and availability of food, transport, housing and health care. Those are all academic issues and it all comes down to maximising profits and increasing the value of their portfolio.
The health and prosperity of the nation is decoupled from the ability to make money so there is little incentive to sacrifice even the smallest of immediate profits for long-term national benefits. Watch as we follow the Reagan playbook from here on.
posted by slimepuppy at 1:41 AM on December 26, 2020 [8 favorites]
Another NYTimes article, with a bit more emphasis on services, which are 80% of the British economy: Brexit Deal Done, Britain Now Scrambles to See How It Will Work
As far as I can see, the EU has cut out services from the beginning of negotiations, and the UK hasn't argued with that. Which is logical, if you imagine that there might be a (semi) sane reason for Brexit: for the last decade or so, after the financial crisis, the EU has been edging towards closer transnational regulation and taxing of the financial sector. After more financial and tax scandals during the 2010s, this had become more and more inevitable in spite of the UK's resistance. For some people within finance, avoiding oversight and regulation is more important than passporting rights within the EU. Which does make one think.
posted by mumimor at 4:08 AM on December 26, 2020 [4 favorites]
As far as I can see, the EU has cut out services from the beginning of negotiations, and the UK hasn't argued with that. Which is logical, if you imagine that there might be a (semi) sane reason for Brexit: for the last decade or so, after the financial crisis, the EU has been edging towards closer transnational regulation and taxing of the financial sector. After more financial and tax scandals during the 2010s, this had become more and more inevitable in spite of the UK's resistance. For some people within finance, avoiding oversight and regulation is more important than passporting rights within the EU. Which does make one think.
posted by mumimor at 4:08 AM on December 26, 2020 [4 favorites]
It's heart-breaking and utterly stupid, but also incredibly dangerous.
A massive policy decision that will impact 65 million people for decades based on breaking electoral law (during the referendum), lies, and blaming others (EU, migrants, remainers). Such a direction never ends well. Probably the people to feel the brunt first will be EU citizens living in the UK.
It's incredibly painful to see so many people lauding what is so obviously a ridiculously bad arrangement.
And Erasmus is all about continuing the culture war for generations. Very, very, nasty.
posted by rolandroland at 4:25 AM on December 26, 2020 [4 favorites]
A massive policy decision that will impact 65 million people for decades based on breaking electoral law (during the referendum), lies, and blaming others (EU, migrants, remainers). Such a direction never ends well. Probably the people to feel the brunt first will be EU citizens living in the UK.
It's incredibly painful to see so many people lauding what is so obviously a ridiculously bad arrangement.
And Erasmus is all about continuing the culture war for generations. Very, very, nasty.
posted by rolandroland at 4:25 AM on December 26, 2020 [4 favorites]
The only way to keep full financial passporting rights was to either stay in the single market, or do a bespoke deal which would include following EU financial rules with the european court of justice as ultimate arbiter. Both were ruled out by May, and doubled down on by Johnson, so financial services from London were always going to be sacrificed.
Major banks and finance corps saw the writing on the wall years ago, and have been moving staff and EU operations into subsidary companies inside the EU, mostly Frankfurt - where they will pay relevent member state taxes and follow EU regulation - so they could continue to do business in the EU. It does mean a big loss of prestige, and money and jobs in London, of course. The banks are waiting on an "equivalence" decision so they can continue to offer some financial services from London, but if not they will have to move pretty much everything to their EU subsidiaries. Either way, many UK citizens living inside the EU have seen their bank accounts in the UK closed or transferred.
EU citizens in the UK are mostly protected (in theory) by the withdrawal agreement from 1 Feb 2020, but we've seen how willing the tories are to threaten to break international law by violating that agreement on the Irish sea border, so it's certainly not guaranteed their rights will be safe.
For the leavers I've talked to, brexit was about 'freedom' - pulling away from the EU, its rulemaking apparatus, its courts, the requirement to 'accept' freedom of movement of EU workers. They were quite willing for others to pay the financial and social cost of that, because they were largely of the belief that they wouldn't have to pay more (or that they had little left to lose). They didn't care about moving to europe - only those hated educated 'elites' and bankers, and 'citizens of nowhere' would be brought down a peg or two. And EU 'scroungers' coming over here, getting a free house and benefits for nothing; there seems to be a widespread belief that EU citizens had access to some kind of priority access to jobs, housing, benefits and the NHS which was resented mightily. That the country was 'full', and the only option was to leave so houses would be more affordable, that NHS queues wouldn't be so crowded with 'foreigners', that they wouldn't take all the jobs. And don't forget, it was as much middle-aged middle-class people who voted for brexit as the working poor, not least because we'd be better off not sending all that money to the EU, and being made to do all this 'socialist' stuff they hate.
They're pretty much entirely wrong of course; EU citizens were less likely to claim benefits than UK citizens, used NHS services less (mostly being relatively young workers), and housing availability and pricing are down to structural issues going back many years, exacerbated by intentional tory policy. The NHS is still reliant on immigrant labour, as is farming and much manufacturing, as British people bluntly don't want to do such hard jobs for little money. EU membership benefited us by many multiples of the fees. Even with this thin deal, non-tariff barriers will still raise prices on food and goods, which ultimately will fall hardest on those with the least money. And the tory government has demonstrated repeatedly over the last decade that they only care about rich people, so that 'freedom' from EU regulation will only be used to enrich them at the cost of the rest of us.
20 years of anti-EU propaganda has ultimately successed, and many remainers have long since given up any hope of changing course any time soon. We're going to be smaller, poorer, and more resentful as a country when the promised benefits of a hard break do not arrive (for anyone not already a millionaire). Who the blame will fall on is yet to be seen, but given the government has so far seemed to be pretty teflon with regard to their many covid disasters, I'm not at all confident that ultimately the blame will fall on the tories where it belongs, and I expect the right-wing press (which seems to include the BBC these days) will focus it on the EU for 'stabbing us in the back'. They managed to successfully blame the French for 'punishing us over fish' for the recent border chaos in Kent (which was down to the covid variant and the government's handling of it, not Brexit), and I fully expect that to be the approach for the next few years.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:09 AM on December 26, 2020 [17 favorites]
Major banks and finance corps saw the writing on the wall years ago, and have been moving staff and EU operations into subsidary companies inside the EU, mostly Frankfurt - where they will pay relevent member state taxes and follow EU regulation - so they could continue to do business in the EU. It does mean a big loss of prestige, and money and jobs in London, of course. The banks are waiting on an "equivalence" decision so they can continue to offer some financial services from London, but if not they will have to move pretty much everything to their EU subsidiaries. Either way, many UK citizens living inside the EU have seen their bank accounts in the UK closed or transferred.
EU citizens in the UK are mostly protected (in theory) by the withdrawal agreement from 1 Feb 2020, but we've seen how willing the tories are to threaten to break international law by violating that agreement on the Irish sea border, so it's certainly not guaranteed their rights will be safe.
For the leavers I've talked to, brexit was about 'freedom' - pulling away from the EU, its rulemaking apparatus, its courts, the requirement to 'accept' freedom of movement of EU workers. They were quite willing for others to pay the financial and social cost of that, because they were largely of the belief that they wouldn't have to pay more (or that they had little left to lose). They didn't care about moving to europe - only those hated educated 'elites' and bankers, and 'citizens of nowhere' would be brought down a peg or two. And EU 'scroungers' coming over here, getting a free house and benefits for nothing; there seems to be a widespread belief that EU citizens had access to some kind of priority access to jobs, housing, benefits and the NHS which was resented mightily. That the country was 'full', and the only option was to leave so houses would be more affordable, that NHS queues wouldn't be so crowded with 'foreigners', that they wouldn't take all the jobs. And don't forget, it was as much middle-aged middle-class people who voted for brexit as the working poor, not least because we'd be better off not sending all that money to the EU, and being made to do all this 'socialist' stuff they hate.
They're pretty much entirely wrong of course; EU citizens were less likely to claim benefits than UK citizens, used NHS services less (mostly being relatively young workers), and housing availability and pricing are down to structural issues going back many years, exacerbated by intentional tory policy. The NHS is still reliant on immigrant labour, as is farming and much manufacturing, as British people bluntly don't want to do such hard jobs for little money. EU membership benefited us by many multiples of the fees. Even with this thin deal, non-tariff barriers will still raise prices on food and goods, which ultimately will fall hardest on those with the least money. And the tory government has demonstrated repeatedly over the last decade that they only care about rich people, so that 'freedom' from EU regulation will only be used to enrich them at the cost of the rest of us.
20 years of anti-EU propaganda has ultimately successed, and many remainers have long since given up any hope of changing course any time soon. We're going to be smaller, poorer, and more resentful as a country when the promised benefits of a hard break do not arrive (for anyone not already a millionaire). Who the blame will fall on is yet to be seen, but given the government has so far seemed to be pretty teflon with regard to their many covid disasters, I'm not at all confident that ultimately the blame will fall on the tories where it belongs, and I expect the right-wing press (which seems to include the BBC these days) will focus it on the EU for 'stabbing us in the back'. They managed to successfully blame the French for 'punishing us over fish' for the recent border chaos in Kent (which was down to the covid variant and the government's handling of it, not Brexit), and I fully expect that to be the approach for the next few years.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:09 AM on December 26, 2020 [17 favorites]
That said, conservatives all over the world seem to hate critical education.
I don't know about Boris Johnson, but one of the key predictors for Trump/Biden in 2020 was education level. The more education one had, the less likely they were to vote for Trump. So it makes sense, in a "let's destroy the world while we're in power" sort of way.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:10 AM on December 26, 2020
I don't know about Boris Johnson, but one of the key predictors for Trump/Biden in 2020 was education level. The more education one had, the less likely they were to vote for Trump. So it makes sense, in a "let's destroy the world while we're in power" sort of way.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:10 AM on December 26, 2020
George Monbiot: The only way to understand Brexit is as a civil war within Capitalism.
In short, the ultimate goal of Brexit is to break free from any sort of regulations as others have pointed out above. The average voter doesn't really care or understand that this is against their interests so you pump up the xenophobia to get them to go along.
posted by vacapinta at 5:35 AM on December 26, 2020 [13 favorites]
In short, the ultimate goal of Brexit is to break free from any sort of regulations as others have pointed out above. The average voter doesn't really care or understand that this is against their interests so you pump up the xenophobia to get them to go along.
posted by vacapinta at 5:35 AM on December 26, 2020 [13 favorites]
Here's a link to the article "Brexit stems from a civil war in capitalism – we are all just collateral damage" by George Monbiot (24/11/2020). For the non-twitterers, I think the twitter thread linked by vacapinta refers to this article by him.
posted by runcifex at 7:40 AM on December 26, 2020 [5 favorites]
posted by runcifex at 7:40 AM on December 26, 2020 [5 favorites]
A little bird at the Home Office tells us Priti Patel has asked Civil Service to scope a policy paper on the restoration of the death penalty in 2021 and the Tories have the majority to do just that..
I look forward to the explanations for Starmer whipping Labour to support the reintroduction of capital punishment, because red wall and/or Corbyn would have opposed it and we must repudiate Corbynism in all its forms or something.
posted by acb at 9:43 AM on December 26, 2020 [6 favorites]
I look forward to the explanations for Starmer whipping Labour to support the reintroduction of capital punishment, because red wall and/or Corbyn would have opposed it and we must repudiate Corbynism in all its forms or something.
posted by acb at 9:43 AM on December 26, 2020 [6 favorites]
Given that Parliament directly legislating to regress from our ratification of Protocol 13 of the ECHR by reintroducing the death penalty would be an egregious breach of the trade and cooperation agreement we've just made, and would result in the loss of security cooperation with the EU, I think this (providing it is an accurate report) is considerably more likely to be a move against Johnson's deal, and Johnson himself, than a viable plan to reintroduce capital punishment during this parliament. Which isn't to say it's not disturbing in the extreme: the whole point of such moves will be to build the narrative I outlined above: that we need to scrap the deal entirely and "go our own way". Given that trading with the EU on WTO terms would be ruinous for our economy as a whole (although almost certainly not for the kleptocrats who form a decent chunk the current Tory right), it doesn't seem probable we'd encounter any such smash before the next general election, but the risk is Johnson being deposed early and a leader from among the headbangers (or possibly just one even more beholden to them than Johnson has been) using the prospect of sunlit uplands (+ lots of lovely hangings) beyond "true Brexit" to rally support at that election. It's certainly not unthinkable. On the other hand, I suspect that the majority of voters are just so sick of Brexit that, while it would be great for rallying the base, it's probably not actually a great electoral strategy.
And it's quite obvious that Starmer isn't going to destroy himself by trying to whip Labour MPs to vote for the reintroduction of capital punishment (particular in breach of treaty committments). I know feelings run high, and there are plenty of decisions by the current Labour leadership that I disagree with, but let's try to keep a sense of what is realistically feasible, please.
posted by howfar at 11:29 AM on December 26, 2020 [7 favorites]
And it's quite obvious that Starmer isn't going to destroy himself by trying to whip Labour MPs to vote for the reintroduction of capital punishment (particular in breach of treaty committments). I know feelings run high, and there are plenty of decisions by the current Labour leadership that I disagree with, but let's try to keep a sense of what is realistically feasible, please.
posted by howfar at 11:29 AM on December 26, 2020 [7 favorites]
Press release
New Turing scheme to support thousands of students to study and work abroad
A new £100 million scheme for students to study and work abroad will replace the UK's participation in Erasmus+
posted by infini at 11:51 AM on December 26, 2020
And it's quite obvious that Starmer isn't going to destroy himself by trying to whip Labour MPs to vote for the reintroduction of capital punishment […]
In fact he entered politics through his legal practice, which included a fight against capital punishment. According to Teh Guardian in 2008, he "led the successful opposition to the death penalty in the courts of the Caribbean and is a member of the foreign secretary's death penalty advisory panel".
It's hard to know what Labour's best strategy here is, but given the scope of their recent defeat and the fact that so many Labour voters (including Corbyn) actually supported Brexit, he probably thinks a battle at this point would be quixotic.
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:39 PM on December 26, 2020
In fact he entered politics through his legal practice, which included a fight against capital punishment. According to Teh Guardian in 2008, he "led the successful opposition to the death penalty in the courts of the Caribbean and is a member of the foreign secretary's death penalty advisory panel".
It's hard to know what Labour's best strategy here is, but given the scope of their recent defeat and the fact that so many Labour voters (including Corbyn) actually supported Brexit, he probably thinks a battle at this point would be quixotic.
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:39 PM on December 26, 2020
If the Tories decide to push ahead with it regardless of what the ECHR thinks, and it becomes a wedge issue in the lead-up to a general election, with Labour needing to take back some of the “red wall” seats (which, presumably, would involve them demonstrating that accusations of them being “out-of-touch metropolitan liberal elitists” can't stick), then supporting capital punishment may be a tactical calculation made in the interest of electability.
As for capital punishment being a violation of the withdrawal agreement, that may be a feature rather than a bug. The original Brexiters made no secret of wanting to set off a domino reaction destroying the liberal internationalist EU in favour of a fascist/Putinist vision of a “Europe of nations”. And reactionaries in some EU nations (Poland, for one, though there are probably more) have made noises about wanting to bring back capital punishment. Britain charging ahead with this and daring Europe to stop them could be calculated to inspire the right-leaning EU nations (the Visegrad nations for now, possibly France/Austria/Sweden/Spain if the far-right make gains in elections) to bring the EU's opposition to capital punishment up for review.
posted by acb at 1:09 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
As for capital punishment being a violation of the withdrawal agreement, that may be a feature rather than a bug. The original Brexiters made no secret of wanting to set off a domino reaction destroying the liberal internationalist EU in favour of a fascist/Putinist vision of a “Europe of nations”. And reactionaries in some EU nations (Poland, for one, though there are probably more) have made noises about wanting to bring back capital punishment. Britain charging ahead with this and daring Europe to stop them could be calculated to inspire the right-leaning EU nations (the Visegrad nations for now, possibly France/Austria/Sweden/Spain if the far-right make gains in elections) to bring the EU's opposition to capital punishment up for review.
posted by acb at 1:09 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
supporting capital punishment may be a tactical calculation made in the interest of electability.
I hate this and I hate that it's true.
posted by slimepuppy at 1:31 PM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
I hate this and I hate that it's true.
posted by slimepuppy at 1:31 PM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
Capital punishment is just sick and barbarian, and I'm surprised to see it has any political presence in the UK. It is not coming back into the EU. Poland and Hungary reached a compromise on the rule of law for this budget session, but they are not in good standing, and just a slight move to the left within the 27 member states will see them sent off to manage on their own. They seem to be very well aware of the economic consequences. The idea that France, Austria, Sweden or Spain would be on that path seems ridiculous to me. The far right have a voice in those countries, but that is because they are in some aspects socially liberal.
posted by mumimor at 1:32 PM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 1:32 PM on December 26, 2020 [3 favorites]
supporting capital punishment may be a tactical calculation made in the interest of electability.
+trial balloon by priti patel. move overton window even more to the authoritarian right.
get lawnnorder gammons + rabid press more on her side. the cruelty is the point. more positioning for run for PM.
posted by lalochezia at 6:32 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
+trial balloon by priti patel. move overton window even more to the authoritarian right.
get lawnnorder gammons + rabid press more on her side. the cruelty is the point. more positioning for run for PM.
posted by lalochezia at 6:32 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
Splendid isolation … or just a bit-part player? Europe reacts to British ‘victory’
As Brussels officials scrutinise the detail, political pundits from Berlin to Madrid see a poor outlook for the UK
posted by roolya_boolya at 10:33 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
As Brussels officials scrutinise the detail, political pundits from Berlin to Madrid see a poor outlook for the UK
posted by roolya_boolya at 10:33 PM on December 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
2016: The leopards are supposed to eat only THEIR faces!
2021: The leopards may as well eat OUR faces, but that's the point!
posted by runcifex at 1:11 AM on December 27, 2020
2021: The leopards may as well eat OUR faces, but that's the point!
posted by runcifex at 1:11 AM on December 27, 2020
Another NYTimes article, with a bit more emphasis on services, which are 80% of the British economy: Brexit Deal Done, Britain Now Scrambles to See How It Will Work
As far as I can see, the EU has cut out services from the beginning of negotiations, and the UK hasn't argued with that. Which is logical, if you imagine that there might be a (semi) sane reason for Brexit: for the last decade or so, after the financial crisis, the EU has been edging towards closer transnational regulation and taxing of the financial sector. After more financial and tax scandals during the 2010s, this had become more and more inevitable in spite of the UK's resistance. For some people within finance, avoiding oversight and regulation is more important than passporting rights within the EU. Which does make one think.
Services was never going to happen because it absolutely requires regulatory convergence on many, many things. Trade in services within the EU is not nearly as liberalised as trade in goods for this very reason. How could a Dutch lawyer of a French accountant work for you in Austria? It's inherently challenging as it is and leaving the EU and its regulatory machinery will make it even harder.
A little bird at the Home Office tells us Priti Patel has asked Civil Service to scope a policy paper on the restoration of the death penalty in 2021 and the Tories have the majority to do just that..
Priti Patel is a dangerous crackpot but, no, the Tories do not have a majority for that and there is no way that they would burn political capital on a policy that has little popular backing and no interest from their donor base. Boris "let the good times roll" Johnson is not going to bring back hanging. This is Patel on manoeuvres in her loathsome way.
Essentially this is as good a deal as was possible given what each side wanted and hopefully we can now move and adapt to our changed trading relationship as best we can. I can only hope that we will no longer have to hear about immigration as a political issue at least (I mean, I can hope...)
It is worth noting that from the point of view of the people who voted for this in the first place, Johnson is looking good. The UK has full immigration control and is not bound by EU courts (in theory...). The fact that I don't think either of those are good things is neither here nor there for them. Nor is the fact that this will make many of the people who voted for it poorer in the long run. Simple messages, even if they're dumb, will beat complex truths and the Tories will now say, "you voted for us to get a deal done and we got a deal done". That's quite hard to beat with a much more complex message from Labour that they would have gotten a better deal (they certainly would have gotten a *different* deal because they had different red lines) somehow. What's Labour's message going to be? "Boris screwed over the bankers with this deal"? That should bring the voters back in droves!
posted by atrazine at 7:49 AM on December 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
As far as I can see, the EU has cut out services from the beginning of negotiations, and the UK hasn't argued with that. Which is logical, if you imagine that there might be a (semi) sane reason for Brexit: for the last decade or so, after the financial crisis, the EU has been edging towards closer transnational regulation and taxing of the financial sector. After more financial and tax scandals during the 2010s, this had become more and more inevitable in spite of the UK's resistance. For some people within finance, avoiding oversight and regulation is more important than passporting rights within the EU. Which does make one think.
Services was never going to happen because it absolutely requires regulatory convergence on many, many things. Trade in services within the EU is not nearly as liberalised as trade in goods for this very reason. How could a Dutch lawyer of a French accountant work for you in Austria? It's inherently challenging as it is and leaving the EU and its regulatory machinery will make it even harder.
A little bird at the Home Office tells us Priti Patel has asked Civil Service to scope a policy paper on the restoration of the death penalty in 2021 and the Tories have the majority to do just that..
Priti Patel is a dangerous crackpot but, no, the Tories do not have a majority for that and there is no way that they would burn political capital on a policy that has little popular backing and no interest from their donor base. Boris "let the good times roll" Johnson is not going to bring back hanging. This is Patel on manoeuvres in her loathsome way.
Essentially this is as good a deal as was possible given what each side wanted and hopefully we can now move and adapt to our changed trading relationship as best we can. I can only hope that we will no longer have to hear about immigration as a political issue at least (I mean, I can hope...)
It is worth noting that from the point of view of the people who voted for this in the first place, Johnson is looking good. The UK has full immigration control and is not bound by EU courts (in theory...). The fact that I don't think either of those are good things is neither here nor there for them. Nor is the fact that this will make many of the people who voted for it poorer in the long run. Simple messages, even if they're dumb, will beat complex truths and the Tories will now say, "you voted for us to get a deal done and we got a deal done". That's quite hard to beat with a much more complex message from Labour that they would have gotten a better deal (they certainly would have gotten a *different* deal because they had different red lines) somehow. What's Labour's message going to be? "Boris screwed over the bankers with this deal"? That should bring the voters back in droves!
posted by atrazine at 7:49 AM on December 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
there is no way that they would burn political capital on a policy that has little popular backing and no interest from their donor base.
OTOH, a poll showed that 53% of Leave voters wanted the death penalty brought back. By the rules of British democracy, (a) that's an overwhelming majority, and (b) even if a huge majority of Remain voters oppose it, that doesn't matter because they lost.
posted by acb at 4:35 PM on December 27, 2020
OTOH, a poll showed that 53% of Leave voters wanted the death penalty brought back. By the rules of British democracy, (a) that's an overwhelming majority, and (b) even if a huge majority of Remain voters oppose it, that doesn't matter because they lost.
posted by acb at 4:35 PM on December 27, 2020
(to be clear, it is technically possible for accountants and lawyers to have qualifications recognised but in practice services are much less integrated than manufacturing because the interfaces are more complex.
posted by atrazine at 6:17 AM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by atrazine at 6:17 AM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
Brexit: Hidden Perils uses the EU's trade deal with Canada to talk about (some of) the problems UK suppliers will face.
Here's the start of the post:
posted by kingless at 6:31 AM on December 28, 2020 [6 favorites]
Here's the start of the post:
It is worth stepping back from the media rhetoric on the EU-UK TCA (or TCA, for short) and consider briefly that Johnson's original model for a trade agreement was the Canada deal (CETA).From near the end:
And while we see many general references to that agreement, we see very little detail on its application and performance. But what we do see is not very encouraging.
Within the Single Market, the supplier retains some (and sometimes the entire) responsibility but, after 31 December, UK suppliers are outside EU jurisdiction, which is why liability falls on the importers. They are established in the EU and thus come within the jurisdiction of EU law.Lots more interesting (to me, at least) detail in the post.
In terms of competing for business in the EU, this will have a significant impact. Where an EU-based buyer has a choice, it is obviously safer to purchase goods from enterprises within the Single Market, where the liability will be reduced.
posted by kingless at 6:31 AM on December 28, 2020 [6 favorites]
Lots more interesting (to me, at least) detail in the post.
This post details pretty nicely some of the issues that are apparently too technical or specific to be mentioned even in many business papers. And those details are just the tip of the iceberg, as the author mentions at the end of the post.
Fundamentally business is lazy and loves low hanging fruits. Will you hire more people to handle imports from the UK for your widget, or will you google "parts for my widget" and buy them from Czechia instead? Hmm.
posted by romanb at 10:14 AM on December 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
This post details pretty nicely some of the issues that are apparently too technical or specific to be mentioned even in many business papers. And those details are just the tip of the iceberg, as the author mentions at the end of the post.
Fundamentally business is lazy and loves low hanging fruits. Will you hire more people to handle imports from the UK for your widget, or will you google "parts for my widget" and buy them from Czechia instead? Hmm.
posted by romanb at 10:14 AM on December 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
→
The loss from seed potatoes is specific to Scotland. Any gain in fishing (which I agree is unlikely) is going to be mostly outside Scotland. Scotland doesn't need more deprivation.
posted by scruss at 11:31 AM on December 28, 2020
So unless Brexit increases the value if UK fishing by about 25% (unlikely IMO) the net loss from one outweighs the gain from the other
The loss from seed potatoes is specific to Scotland. Any gain in fishing (which I agree is unlikely) is going to be mostly outside Scotland. Scotland doesn't need more deprivation.
posted by scruss at 11:31 AM on December 28, 2020
Fishing is big in Scotland: lots of coast and not that many people. Over £300M "gross value added" was due to fishing in 2018, but yes: it would take a much bigger increase in the economy generally to make up for the loss of an industry specific to Scotland. And as with seed potatoes so with every business: the best case scenario was going to be that entire industries would be "losers" but that overall, they would be outweighed by the "winners". That's obviously not what's going to happen now; I don't know whether any industries are going to have net gains.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:20 PM on December 28, 2020
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:20 PM on December 28, 2020
Oh god. Wait until people start getting bills from Royal Mail to release EU sourced packages. Not to mention all the small businesses who are going to get caught out by this.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:08 PM on December 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:08 PM on December 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
Something that most people have missed is that customs duties and VAT are separate from tariffs. The deal means zero tariffs, but not other costs or paperwork.
I've imported the odd product from the US and Japan (pre EU deal), and they usually got caught for VAT, duty and a hefty handling charge from the carrier - even once you pay the bill, it can take a while for the package to be delivered too, so you need to add that to the cost when you're comparing. For gifts from family/friends on the continent, the limit is only £39 value before you need to pay VAT at the border. Personal limits for EU shopping purchases are a bit higher, up to £135, as you're supposed to pay VAT at the seller's end. (non-EU is only £15 before you owe VAT). Over £135 you now owe duty, often 2.5%, and then add VAT on top, which is priced including duty and postage, plus the exorbitant handling fee. Similar rules going the other way, and you need to fill out a customs form to send anything bar letters/documents. God only knows how much fun it's going to be for small business supply chains, but I think a lot of ordinary people are in for a nasty shock when an extra fee card arrives instead of that ebay purchase that happened to ship from the EU.
The limit is higher, £390, if you bring it in yourself i.e. as luggage - but it's still easy to hit that with a new laptop, phone or jewelry. And given the EU is a much bigger market, many depots and supply chains are based there (or soon will be) so getting things may require importing it yourself if there's no UK seller.
I buy all sorts of things for my hobbies from EU suppliers, some of which there are no equivalent UK versions of - it's always been as easy as ordering from inside the UK, just slightly longer postage (and sometimes not even that!) I'm already working out which things I'll just try and do without, rather than import or pay a higher price from a reseller, if one even exists. I'm sure EU people who buy from the UK will be thinking the exact same thing.
"There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside." David thick-as-mince Davis, former Brexit Minister, 10 October 2016.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:40 PM on December 28, 2020 [8 favorites]
I've imported the odd product from the US and Japan (pre EU deal), and they usually got caught for VAT, duty and a hefty handling charge from the carrier - even once you pay the bill, it can take a while for the package to be delivered too, so you need to add that to the cost when you're comparing. For gifts from family/friends on the continent, the limit is only £39 value before you need to pay VAT at the border. Personal limits for EU shopping purchases are a bit higher, up to £135, as you're supposed to pay VAT at the seller's end. (non-EU is only £15 before you owe VAT). Over £135 you now owe duty, often 2.5%, and then add VAT on top, which is priced including duty and postage, plus the exorbitant handling fee. Similar rules going the other way, and you need to fill out a customs form to send anything bar letters/documents. God only knows how much fun it's going to be for small business supply chains, but I think a lot of ordinary people are in for a nasty shock when an extra fee card arrives instead of that ebay purchase that happened to ship from the EU.
The limit is higher, £390, if you bring it in yourself i.e. as luggage - but it's still easy to hit that with a new laptop, phone or jewelry. And given the EU is a much bigger market, many depots and supply chains are based there (or soon will be) so getting things may require importing it yourself if there's no UK seller.
I buy all sorts of things for my hobbies from EU suppliers, some of which there are no equivalent UK versions of - it's always been as easy as ordering from inside the UK, just slightly longer postage (and sometimes not even that!) I'm already working out which things I'll just try and do without, rather than import or pay a higher price from a reseller, if one even exists. I'm sure EU people who buy from the UK will be thinking the exact same thing.
"There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside." David thick-as-mince Davis, former Brexit Minister, 10 October 2016.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:40 PM on December 28, 2020 [8 favorites]
I suppose the only upside to a return to capital punishment would be the possibility that, drawing on his experience in the TA, David Davis might be asked to lead a firing squad.
posted by howfar at 7:35 PM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by howfar at 7:35 PM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
There's talk up thread about how Optimism has created this situation in all its badness. And I think, if you listen to a futurist economist of some sort you'll hear about manufacturing returning to post industrial countries, because automation, robots, and so on.
I think this tech utopia vision is what Johnson and Co. have bought into, maybe. It ties in with a lot of their visions and initiatives (green tech, the Turing Scheme, getting a quick vaccine approval, etc.). It would explain "fuck business" as in the civil war within capitalism mentioned above (because your old fashioned business is going to get eaten by our smart friends).
Everything else can be sourced from East Asia cheap (in this vision). There seems to have been a small hope that the UK could be the free port dumping those goods into the EU, knew that it was unlikely, but worth a shot. EU members don't intend to destroy their businesses (surprise), so that kind of deal did not happen.
I think, maybe, that's meant to be the upside. You can't sell that vision directly to the public, because your industry as it is meant to die, with a few exceptions.
posted by romanb at 12:24 AM on December 29, 2020
I think this tech utopia vision is what Johnson and Co. have bought into, maybe. It ties in with a lot of their visions and initiatives (green tech, the Turing Scheme, getting a quick vaccine approval, etc.). It would explain "fuck business" as in the civil war within capitalism mentioned above (because your old fashioned business is going to get eaten by our smart friends).
Everything else can be sourced from East Asia cheap (in this vision). There seems to have been a small hope that the UK could be the free port dumping those goods into the EU, knew that it was unlikely, but worth a shot. EU members don't intend to destroy their businesses (surprise), so that kind of deal did not happen.
I think, maybe, that's meant to be the upside. You can't sell that vision directly to the public, because your industry as it is meant to die, with a few exceptions.
posted by romanb at 12:24 AM on December 29, 2020
I don't see the upside for the UK at all here.
Certain people will make a lot of money. I think that a small group pioneered this project, and gained followers along the way, but it was always about a group that saw a huge profit in leaving the EU, and they will profit from this.
posted by chaz at 12:33 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Certain people will make a lot of money. I think that a small group pioneered this project, and gained followers along the way, but it was always about a group that saw a huge profit in leaving the EU, and they will profit from this.
posted by chaz at 12:33 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Cameron accidentally painted himself into the referendum and Boris used the aftermath as an opportunity to seize the leadership and win the last election. None of them have a plan beyond now.
I'm not even optimistic the profiteers will stand to gain anything much. That's a fairy story to rationalise something that's just bad for everyone.
The optimistic take is that as no one benefits from the new situation, perhaps the worst of the destruction will be rolled back in our lifetimes.
posted by grahamparks at 5:05 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
I'm not even optimistic the profiteers will stand to gain anything much. That's a fairy story to rationalise something that's just bad for everyone.
The optimistic take is that as no one benefits from the new situation, perhaps the worst of the destruction will be rolled back in our lifetimes.
posted by grahamparks at 5:05 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
I'm sure EU people who buy from the UK will be thinking the exact same thing
This will be a big problem in Ireland, where a lot of stuff normally comes from the UK. There’s no Irish Amazon, for example, so up to now everyone uses Amazon.co.uk. People are becoming aware of it - Amazon.de may be getting a lot of Irish purchases in the future, for example. The same applies to a lot of retailers - Ireland is seen as an adjunct to the UK market, rather than them going to the bother of setting up a dedicated Irish website/distribution system.
There were also concerns in the case of a no-deal Brexit that the current EU consumer protections wouldn’t apply if buying from the UK. I’m not sure whether this is addressed in the deal or not, but it’s another of those things that you don’t normally think about until something goes wrong.
posted by scorbet at 5:31 AM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
This will be a big problem in Ireland, where a lot of stuff normally comes from the UK. There’s no Irish Amazon, for example, so up to now everyone uses Amazon.co.uk. People are becoming aware of it - Amazon.de may be getting a lot of Irish purchases in the future, for example. The same applies to a lot of retailers - Ireland is seen as an adjunct to the UK market, rather than them going to the bother of setting up a dedicated Irish website/distribution system.
There were also concerns in the case of a no-deal Brexit that the current EU consumer protections wouldn’t apply if buying from the UK. I’m not sure whether this is addressed in the deal or not, but it’s another of those things that you don’t normally think about until something goes wrong.
posted by scorbet at 5:31 AM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
Decent blog from Matthew Scott on the diplomatic and legal challenges for any attempt to reintroduce the death penalty. Perhaps of particular note are points around Good Friday agreement, the post-Brexit status of Northern Ireland and the effect of Scottish devolution.
As I've said, I don't think that this is a reason to be unperturbed by the (apparent) leak of this story, but I think that (given the high probability of ministerial involvement) it's what the fact of leak itself suggests about manoeuvrings in the Tory party that's the matter for concern.
posted by howfar at 2:28 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
As I've said, I don't think that this is a reason to be unperturbed by the (apparent) leak of this story, but I think that (given the high probability of ministerial involvement) it's what the fact of leak itself suggests about manoeuvrings in the Tory party that's the matter for concern.
posted by howfar at 2:28 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
Is there anything at all to it apart from a retweet of a screenshot of a tweet? There might be, but that's all I've seen so far. It could be a leak, or it could be something that someone just made up.
I'm sure that Priti Patel wants the death penalty for every offence north of shoplifting, it's just that there doesn't seem to be much meat there.
posted by Grangousier at 2:46 AM on December 30, 2020
I'm sure that Priti Patel wants the death penalty for every offence north of shoplifting, it's just that there doesn't seem to be much meat there.
posted by Grangousier at 2:46 AM on December 30, 2020
Nothing at all that I'm aware of. Every possibility from actual leak, through deliberate misinformation, to just something someone made up, seems plausible, with my feeling being that probability is in favour bullshit but not particularly strongly.
That said, I think it's reasonable to find it a bit worrying, simply because the obvious path forward for the Tory right, at this point, is to try to undermine Johnson's Brexit deal and campaign on a very right wing platform in 2024. But (as well as being a pretty unlikely path to power, in my opinion) that's something to worry about generally, rather than in relation to this alleged story in particular.
I guess what's worrying is really just that it's plausible that the Home Secretary would use public resources to look at this shit, and that this plausibility is only mainly because of the malice and wrecklessness that characterises almost everything this Home Secretary does.
posted by howfar at 3:12 AM on December 30, 2020
That said, I think it's reasonable to find it a bit worrying, simply because the obvious path forward for the Tory right, at this point, is to try to undermine Johnson's Brexit deal and campaign on a very right wing platform in 2024. But (as well as being a pretty unlikely path to power, in my opinion) that's something to worry about generally, rather than in relation to this alleged story in particular.
I guess what's worrying is really just that it's plausible that the Home Secretary would use public resources to look at this shit, and that this plausibility is only mainly because of the malice and wrecklessness that characterises almost everything this Home Secretary does.
posted by howfar at 3:12 AM on December 30, 2020
I should note that it appears I deleted an "any" before a "leak" when editing my last but one comment. I did not intend to suggest evidence of leak beyond what Grangousier indicates (i.e. pretty much fuck all).
posted by howfar at 3:15 AM on December 30, 2020
posted by howfar at 3:15 AM on December 30, 2020
Faisal Islam on the new rules of origin requirements. Tariff free trade this is not.
In Parliament just now: Incredible. Starmer points out that UK businesses only get tariff free access if they abide by rule of origin requirements and the UK sticks to the level playing field. Johnson says: "Rubbish."
Food and Drink Federation assessment.
Next year will be eye-opening for UK businesses most of who are not prepared for this at all.
posted by vacapinta at 3:27 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
In Parliament just now: Incredible. Starmer points out that UK businesses only get tariff free access if they abide by rule of origin requirements and the UK sticks to the level playing field. Johnson says: "Rubbish."
Food and Drink Federation assessment.
Next year will be eye-opening for UK businesses most of who are not prepared for this at all.
posted by vacapinta at 3:27 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
Katy Hayward has done up a quick guide to the more practical effects of the Brexit deal for people living in Northern Ireland, and/or close to the border. It’s available as a twitter thread that can be cut out and kept for reference.
posted by scorbet at 3:41 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by scorbet at 3:41 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
Acceptiing that Alastair Campbell is problematical because of the Blair years but this bears thinking about.
.....when you reflect that Brexit is the consequence of a reverse takeover by a tiny but well-funded minority of the Tory Party, and that the Cabinet of the UK is now virtually wholly owned by and representative of that formerly minority position, you have to take seriously the scale of what is going on, and at least reflect on it rather more than much of the debate and coverage thus far seems to do.
The Brexit Revolutionaries Have Barely Begun. Britain Needs To Wake Up Fast.
The oligarchs and their political puppets are in the ascendency. Is this the beginning of the new feudalism?
posted by adamvasco at 5:00 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
.....when you reflect that Brexit is the consequence of a reverse takeover by a tiny but well-funded minority of the Tory Party, and that the Cabinet of the UK is now virtually wholly owned by and representative of that formerly minority position, you have to take seriously the scale of what is going on, and at least reflect on it rather more than much of the debate and coverage thus far seems to do.
The Brexit Revolutionaries Have Barely Begun. Britain Needs To Wake Up Fast.
The oligarchs and their political puppets are in the ascendency. Is this the beginning of the new feudalism?
posted by adamvasco at 5:00 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
I think the Brexiteers don't much care about what the rules stipulate or what they entail. They seem to envision the UK as a sort of affable scamp on the periphery of the EU; as a sort of fleet-footed rapscallion who skirts the rules and gets away with it; as a sort of swashbuckling buccaneer who steals your wallet, but not without stealing your heart first. As far as they're concerned the rules are there to be tested, resisted, broken. That's what they mean by sovereignty. As far as they're concerned, there is no honor among thieves.
posted by dmh at 6:33 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by dmh at 6:33 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
A bit more on the new customs arrangements from Jan 1, in mind-numbing horrifying depth.
OK so give me the executive summary.posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:46 AM on December 30, 2020 [5 favorites]
We’re about to experience the sudden implementation of complex customs processes in a nation which forgot they existed. This involves the introduction of numerous interrelated IT systems which have been under-tested. It’s not clear that either government or traders are fully prepared for what’s about to happen. In order to minimise the disruption the government is introducing various traffic management projects and trying to bulk up staff capacity. But there’s just too many variables to know how it’ll pan out. Maybe the systems will hold out and many traders will anyway sit out January because of concerns about queues. Or maybe the systems will fail, traders won’t fill in forms right and the whole thing will blow up in our face. The most likely outcome right now is somewhere between shambles and catastrophe. We have to hope it’s a shambles.
Can you do it in acronym-speak?
Amid RHA and Bifa concerns about the lack of progress, HMRC, Defra, the HO, the Dft, the BPDG and the TTF are building up IT systems for post-Brexit GB-EU trade and particularly for RoRo at Dover-Calais which will involve exporters submitting import/export declarations to Chief and the CDS, S&S information to S&S GB and ICS, and collating their SPS documentation – including an EHC filled out by an CSO under the supervision of an OV sent via a BCP – with the importer logging it on Traces NT, while generating a GMR via GVMS and SI Brexit, and then HGVs getting a KAP, all to avoid the RWCS.
Brexit deal - written this year remember - references “modern e-mail software packages including Outlook, Mozilla Mail as well as Netscape Communicator 4.x." as well as using insecure encryption standards. But sure, 5 hours of parliamentary scrutiny during the holiday period should do it. Ian Dunt’s thread on the Commons debate today is a fun read
Christ, I’m sorry for all you UK MeFi’s. What a cocking mess.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:53 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
Christ, I’m sorry for all you UK MeFi’s. What a cocking mess.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:53 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
A bit more on the new customs arrangements from Jan 1, in mind-numbing horrifying depth.
This is brilliant. I hope he's wrong, but I suspect he is right. One thing that stood out to me was that more vets are needed, but because freedom of movement is ending, there weren't be enough vets. (Because the UK never educated enough vets in the first place but relied on people whose educations were paid for by other countries).
The Brexit Revolutionaries Have Barely Begun. Britain Needs To Wake Up Fast.
I haven't read the book he is reviewing, but I strongly believe this is part of what happened (and I've said it before). One thing is the racism and all that, but a lot of money was poured into making Brexit happen, and the people who paid don't give a shit about the UK, or whoever lives there. They like cheap labour. Dyson and Farage (and probably others) have moved their money offshore while the storm rages.
I'm not saying, and I don't think Campbell is saying, that there wasn't a huge racist vote and a huge protest vote. The point is that these voters were used by cynical disaster capitalists, and that those disaster capitalists are not near finished with their destruction of the UK.
posted by mumimor at 8:18 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
This is brilliant. I hope he's wrong, but I suspect he is right. One thing that stood out to me was that more vets are needed, but because freedom of movement is ending, there weren't be enough vets. (Because the UK never educated enough vets in the first place but relied on people whose educations were paid for by other countries).
The Brexit Revolutionaries Have Barely Begun. Britain Needs To Wake Up Fast.
I haven't read the book he is reviewing, but I strongly believe this is part of what happened (and I've said it before). One thing is the racism and all that, but a lot of money was poured into making Brexit happen, and the people who paid don't give a shit about the UK, or whoever lives there. They like cheap labour. Dyson and Farage (and probably others) have moved their money offshore while the storm rages.
I'm not saying, and I don't think Campbell is saying, that there wasn't a huge racist vote and a huge protest vote. The point is that these voters were used by cynical disaster capitalists, and that those disaster capitalists are not near finished with their destruction of the UK.
posted by mumimor at 8:18 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
Nice thread on taking back control, (from parliament).....
To quote AOC on another rushed bill, "this isn't government, it's hostage taking"
rude humor:
Avoid the 3 Cs
posted by lalochezia at 8:50 AM on December 30, 2020
My boys, we are at the end of an age. We live in a land of weather forecasts and breakfasts that 'set in'; shat on by Tories, shovelled up by Labour. -- Montague H. Withnail
posted by Cardinal Fang at 5:21 AM on December 31, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by Cardinal Fang at 5:21 AM on December 31, 2020 [2 favorites]
Boris Johnson's father to seek French Citizenship.
posted by mmascolino at 11:39 AM on December 31, 2020
posted by mmascolino at 11:39 AM on December 31, 2020
Meanwhile ...
As regards investment, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) will be the most ambitious agreement that China has ever concluded with a third country.
posted by romanb at 8:00 AM on January 3, 2021
As regards investment, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) will be the most ambitious agreement that China has ever concluded with a third country.
posted by romanb at 8:00 AM on January 3, 2021
Perhaps because the EU cannot technically be compared to other third countries, per se, being a single market composed of 27 such countries.
Re: Boris Johnson's father's grandfather
posted by infini at 1:25 PM on January 3, 2021
Re: Boris Johnson's father's grandfather
posted by infini at 1:25 PM on January 3, 2021
Third-countries are countries not in the EU. For the EU to compare what it achieved for its member countries, compared to what other non-member third-countries have achieved, is a fine comparison. It is the essence of the EU.
posted by romanb at 10:32 PM on January 3, 2021
posted by romanb at 10:32 PM on January 3, 2021
That makes sense. I think I didn't parse your sentence clearly enough.
posted by infini at 7:09 AM on January 4, 2021
posted by infini at 7:09 AM on January 4, 2021
I think it's just EU-speak that makes it hard to parse on first read. I should have made it clear that it was a direct quote from the European Commission. At some point the EU should just make more use of a few French/German/Polish/etc. terms that best fit the purpose at hand. "Third countries" sounds much more generic than "Drittländer" does, for example.
posted by romanb at 7:41 AM on January 4, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by romanb at 7:41 AM on January 4, 2021 [1 favorite]
It seems they're advertising the job of Prime Minister's Official Spokesperson again. Which means they've either already forgotten they already have one, or they don't have one any more and have (ironically) failed to mention it to anybody.
(Or something something slightly different job descriptions, who can say?)
posted by Grangousier at 2:25 PM on January 4, 2021
(Or something something slightly different job descriptions, who can say?)
posted by Grangousier at 2:25 PM on January 4, 2021
Allegra Stratton is the Downing Street Press Secretary, which is a different position than the Prime Minister's Official Spokesperson. James Slack was the Prime Minister's Official Spokesperson, however, as of 2021 he is now the Downing Street Director of Communications.
posted by RichardP at 2:41 PM on January 4, 2021
posted by RichardP at 2:41 PM on January 4, 2021
Ah, that explains it. I thought the Prime Minister's official spokesperson was Laura Kuenssberg, anyway
posted by Grangousier at 2:48 PM on January 4, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 2:48 PM on January 4, 2021 [2 favorites]
Brexit: The reality dawns
Article about exporting goods from the UK now trade is starting up again.
posted by Kosmob0t at 5:38 AM on January 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Article about exporting goods from the UK now trade is starting up again.
posted by Kosmob0t at 5:38 AM on January 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Perfidious Albion.
In 1982 Britain went to war over the Falklands.
This how the UK government now looks after it's possession where fishing is 52% of the economy.
The Falklands exports fish and meat to the EU and now anticipates tariffs of between 6 and 18% on seafood exports and an average tariff of 42% for meat exports to the EU.
The great irony is we’ll probably weather it better than the UK will.
But right to the end we’re still courteous. Despite being treated like children by the Prime Minister in his Christmas speech and like idiots in his Question Time public assurances (see PN December 1); despite our pleas and arguments never even being tabled at the European Union and nobody caring for our position in advance of Brexit. Despite this being a million miles from the outcome we hoped for, still our well bred response is that we are frustrated and disappointed.
It is more than disappointing, it’s shitty and unjust.
Is that rude? I think it’s warranted.
Another possession Gibraltar, voted 95% to remain and got its Own Last-Minute Brexit Deal on Borders which is now having a few problems.
posted by adamvasco at 10:59 AM on January 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
In 1982 Britain went to war over the Falklands.
This how the UK government now looks after it's possession where fishing is 52% of the economy.
The Falklands exports fish and meat to the EU and now anticipates tariffs of between 6 and 18% on seafood exports and an average tariff of 42% for meat exports to the EU.
The great irony is we’ll probably weather it better than the UK will.
But right to the end we’re still courteous. Despite being treated like children by the Prime Minister in his Christmas speech and like idiots in his Question Time public assurances (see PN December 1); despite our pleas and arguments never even being tabled at the European Union and nobody caring for our position in advance of Brexit. Despite this being a million miles from the outcome we hoped for, still our well bred response is that we are frustrated and disappointed.
It is more than disappointing, it’s shitty and unjust.
Is that rude? I think it’s warranted.
Another possession Gibraltar, voted 95% to remain and got its Own Last-Minute Brexit Deal on Borders which is now having a few problems.
posted by adamvasco at 10:59 AM on January 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Northern Ireland-Britain supply chain is near breaking point, hauliers warn
British government is warned supply lines are a ‘boat breakdown’ away from collapse
posted by roolya_boolya at 2:18 PM on January 9, 2021
British government is warned supply lines are a ‘boat breakdown’ away from collapse
posted by roolya_boolya at 2:18 PM on January 9, 2021
10 days in and Business groups tell ministers to sort out bureaucratic mess caused by EU trade deal.
Gove admitted on Friday that there would be “significant additional disruption” at UK borders as a result of Brexit customs changes in the coming weeks.
The Road Haulage Association told the Standard: “When volumes of freight movement get back to normal levels, and they are set to start rising from next week, we will start seeing the real extent of the impact this red tape is having on industry and businesses.”
Largest Irish Sea ferry operator cuts sailings due to supply chain problems
Stena temporarily cancels sailings on Dublin-Holyhead and Rosslare-Fishguard routes.
15 out of 251 spaces taken is not viable.
Surge in freight traffic on direct ferry routes to Europe. Businesses switch from UK landbridge to avoid post-Brexit border controls.
posted by adamvasco at 4:45 AM on January 10, 2021 [2 favorites]
Gove admitted on Friday that there would be “significant additional disruption” at UK borders as a result of Brexit customs changes in the coming weeks.
The Road Haulage Association told the Standard: “When volumes of freight movement get back to normal levels, and they are set to start rising from next week, we will start seeing the real extent of the impact this red tape is having on industry and businesses.”
Largest Irish Sea ferry operator cuts sailings due to supply chain problems
Stena temporarily cancels sailings on Dublin-Holyhead and Rosslare-Fishguard routes.
15 out of 251 spaces taken is not viable.
Surge in freight traffic on direct ferry routes to Europe. Businesses switch from UK landbridge to avoid post-Brexit border controls.
posted by adamvasco at 4:45 AM on January 10, 2021 [2 favorites]
The same applies to a lot of retailers - Ireland is seen as an adjunct to the UK market, rather than them going to the bother of setting up a dedicated Irish website/distribution system
The bit I missed above, is the issue of Rules of Origin. Basically, only products that are sufficiently "British" have tariff-free status when being imported to the EU. How British-ness is defined depends on the product - it may be a % of the parts, or some sort of process being applied. This has now become an issue for British retailers in Ireland - up to now a lot of products are imported into the UK (either with tariffs or tariff-free depending on where they are imported from) and then transported to Irish branches.
Now, however, tariffs may apply at the Irish border, if the products aren't deemed to have originated in the UK. The Irish Times has a longer explanation with Marks and Spencers' Percy Pigs being one of the items highlighted to cost more. (They're German-made.)
posted by scorbet at 6:27 AM on January 11, 2021
The bit I missed above, is the issue of Rules of Origin. Basically, only products that are sufficiently "British" have tariff-free status when being imported to the EU. How British-ness is defined depends on the product - it may be a % of the parts, or some sort of process being applied. This has now become an issue for British retailers in Ireland - up to now a lot of products are imported into the UK (either with tariffs or tariff-free depending on where they are imported from) and then transported to Irish branches.
Now, however, tariffs may apply at the Irish border, if the products aren't deemed to have originated in the UK. The Irish Times has a longer explanation with Marks and Spencers' Percy Pigs being one of the items highlighted to cost more. (They're German-made.)
posted by scorbet at 6:27 AM on January 11, 2021
Dutch officials seize ham sandwiches from British drivers
Welcome to the Brexit sir, I'm sorry
posted by mumimor at 10:39 AM on January 11, 2021 [5 favorites]
Welcome to the Brexit sir, I'm sorry
posted by mumimor at 10:39 AM on January 11, 2021 [5 favorites]
From yesterday, but:
posted by scruss at 5:33 AM on January 12, 2021 [1 favorite]
🚨— James Withers
BREXIT UPDATE, Tues, 11am
Fast-moving situation, but grim for seafood. Intel from @SeafoodScotland this am:
→ approx 1/3 of fishing fleet now tied up in harbour
→ some boats are now landing in Denmark, not Scotland
→ Some fish prices fell 80% at Peterhead market yesterday
posted by scruss at 5:33 AM on January 12, 2021 [1 favorite]
In other news, rather than fall foul of the confusing new customs regulations involving Northern Ireland, some companies have simply stopped delivering there. Northern Ireland Economy Minister Diane Dodds, a Unionist, has told the UK government to sort themselves out.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 1:32 AM on January 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Cardinal Fang at 1:32 AM on January 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
It's almost as if the government hasn't thought it through.
posted by Marticus at 1:06 PM on January 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 1:06 PM on January 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
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Everything will be much harder now. The EU didn’t hold us back, they helped lift us up.
posted by adrianhon at 8:04 AM on December 24, 2020 [68 favorites]