Bernie will be the Dem nominee, the GOP will retake the House
December 29, 2020 9:18 AM Subscribe
Everything we know remains wrong. Politico's Worst Predictions of 2020 is always an infuriatingly amusing read -- this year more so than ever.
Scott Adams, Gianno Caldwell, James Carville, Mick Mulvaney, Paul Begala, Richard Epstein, Maxine Waters, Fortune Magazine, Jesse Watters, Nancy Pelosi, Hugh Hewitt, BD Holly, Mike Pence, Elon Musk, Karl Rove, Adam Parkhomenko, Kayleigh McEnany, Jeanne Pirro, Rachel Maddow, Ted Cruz, Greg Locke, Angus King, Dr. Irwin Redlener, Bernie Sanders, Helmut Norpoth, Amy Siskind, Kristin B. Tate, Carl Beijer, Brad Parscale, Scott Walker, and of course, Donald f***ing Trump -- y'all need to retire your crystal balls.
Scott Adams, Gianno Caldwell, James Carville, Mick Mulvaney, Paul Begala, Richard Epstein, Maxine Waters, Fortune Magazine, Jesse Watters, Nancy Pelosi, Hugh Hewitt, BD Holly, Mike Pence, Elon Musk, Karl Rove, Adam Parkhomenko, Kayleigh McEnany, Jeanne Pirro, Rachel Maddow, Ted Cruz, Greg Locke, Angus King, Dr. Irwin Redlener, Bernie Sanders, Helmut Norpoth, Amy Siskind, Kristin B. Tate, Carl Beijer, Brad Parscale, Scott Walker, and of course, Donald f***ing Trump -- y'all need to retire your crystal balls.
Some of these were reasonably likely predictions stymied by the pandemic. Others...you kind of have to wonder why some of these people still have jobs.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:34 AM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:34 AM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
MeFi's Own Scott Adams was wrong? Have you considered the possibility that he is a genius who is exposing the credulity of the...
no, I can't even fake that type of bullshit. Why anyone gives him any attention remains a mystery to me.
posted by Monochrome at 9:39 AM on December 29, 2020 [41 favorites]
no, I can't even fake that type of bullshit. Why anyone gives him any attention remains a mystery to me.
posted by Monochrome at 9:39 AM on December 29, 2020 [41 favorites]
Some of these are pundits being laughably bad at their job. Others are bad faith bullshit from people who knew full well what they were doing, and being accurate was never the point.
I wish lists like this would draw that distinction.
posted by Frayed Knot at 9:48 AM on December 29, 2020 [27 favorites]
I wish lists like this would draw that distinction.
posted by Frayed Knot at 9:48 AM on December 29, 2020 [27 favorites]
From Politico, which hires a decent number of solid reporters and and then slaps shitty, clickbaity, both-sides headlines on their stories. And then runs op-eds by avowed, proven liars. Yeah, haha. Look at all these wrong people.
posted by pykrete jungle at 9:50 AM on December 29, 2020 [9 favorites]
posted by pykrete jungle at 9:50 AM on December 29, 2020 [9 favorites]
And I certainly do wonder why he ever got his job.
I still can't believe they gave him his own tv show, to be honest.
posted by signal at 9:52 AM on December 29, 2020 [9 favorites]
I still can't believe they gave him his own tv show, to be honest.
posted by signal at 9:52 AM on December 29, 2020 [9 favorites]
I can't dunk on anyone's crappy predictions because in 2015 I made the worst one of all time.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:54 AM on December 29, 2020 [50 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:54 AM on December 29, 2020 [50 favorites]
"If it ends up that Biden wins in November,” Sen. Cruz said during a July 22 interview in Washington, “I guarantee you the week after the election, suddenly all those Democratic governors, all those Democratic mayors, will say, ‘Everything’s magically better. Go back to work. Go back to school. Suddenly all the problems are solved.’ You won't have to wait for Biden to be sworn in.”
This will never get old because it seemed so oddly right at the time, and continues to seem rather plausible: Ted Cruz Announced He’s Suspending His Campaign To Tend To His Thousands Of Glistening Eggs.
But yeah, a lot of the items here aren't so much "predictions" offered in good faith as they are right-wing agitprop or free-wheeling conspiracy theories with plenty of real estate on that Venn diagram for lots of overlap.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [18 favorites]
This will never get old because it seemed so oddly right at the time, and continues to seem rather plausible: Ted Cruz Announced He’s Suspending His Campaign To Tend To His Thousands Of Glistening Eggs.
But yeah, a lot of the items here aren't so much "predictions" offered in good faith as they are right-wing agitprop or free-wheeling conspiracy theories with plenty of real estate on that Venn diagram for lots of overlap.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [18 favorites]
No, wait, listen. Here's how Bernie can still win this.
posted by thelonius at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [33 favorites]
posted by thelonius at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [33 favorites]
Lost down the Memory Hole is all the breathless predictions from right wingers that Ebola would devastate the USA during the Obama administration. I remember lurking on some wingnut sites that showed allegedly empty hospitals that had been secretly abandoned because of the massive Ebola contamination and deaths. In one case at least, the empty hospital photos turned out to be shots of a renovation project showing the new layout and design of the buildings before the new facilities had been opened. Ebola was seriously predicted by many to eventually kill millions of Americans. All forgotten, mostly. And these people keep their jobs somehow.
posted by SoberHighland at 9:59 AM on December 29, 2020 [13 favorites]
posted by SoberHighland at 9:59 AM on December 29, 2020 [13 favorites]
“They’re going to come out tomorrow. That will tell us unemployment figures for June,” Maddow told her loyal MSNBC viewers on July 1. “Brace yourself, it is going to be absolutely terrible, but we should have those as of tomorrow morning.”Rachel Maddow got this one right. After shedding 30 million jobs in the previous months, 4.8 million new jobs is absolutely terrible.
What they actually revealed was a surprise: The largest single-month job growth in U.S. history — 4.8 million new jobs — and an unemployment rate that dropped from 13.3 percent to 11.1.
posted by Mitheral at 9:59 AM on December 29, 2020 [35 favorites]
> And these people keep their jobs somehow.
Well, depending on which people you're talking about, being wrong and spreading disinformation is their job, and they're very good at it.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:04 AM on December 29, 2020 [14 favorites]
Well, depending on which people you're talking about, being wrong and spreading disinformation is their job, and they're very good at it.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:04 AM on December 29, 2020 [14 favorites]
“We’re not going to see an effective [coronavirus] vaccine proven safe until well into 2021, if then”
I'm grateful that this one didn't pan out like that.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 10:05 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
I'm grateful that this one didn't pan out like that.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 10:05 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
If you want more of this type of look back on Pundits being wrong in 2020 - Pod Save America just did a whole show this week (Pod Save America presents The Pundie Awards)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:12 AM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:12 AM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
We lost seats in the house and barely squeaked an electoral win with a major recession, impeachment, a purposefully mismanaged pandemic, and blatant political pressures on states being exerted by the president.
If the pandemic hadn't happened, I can absolutely believe that Trump would still be president and the GOP would own the house.
That was not a bad call at the start or the year and 2022 is going to be an absolute fucking bloodbath for dems if this centrist, compromise bullshit keeps up from Biden's corner.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:23 AM on December 29, 2020 [30 favorites]
If the pandemic hadn't happened, I can absolutely believe that Trump would still be president and the GOP would own the house.
That was not a bad call at the start or the year and 2022 is going to be an absolute fucking bloodbath for dems if this centrist, compromise bullshit keeps up from Biden's corner.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:23 AM on December 29, 2020 [30 favorites]
Richard Epstein
I was thinking of the other Epstein, but it's probably a same bet 2020 didn't turn out the way that guy was expecting either
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:25 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
I was thinking of the other Epstein, but it's probably a same bet 2020 didn't turn out the way that guy was expecting either
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:25 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Heh, one thing we can all agree is going to happen is four years of. “BERNIE WOHLD HAV WON!!!!!1” from the usual suspects, with a dash of “Biden only won because of X, Y, Z” from people who say “centrist” a lot.
posted by sideshow at 10:28 AM on December 29, 2020 [26 favorites]
posted by sideshow at 10:28 AM on December 29, 2020 [26 favorites]
Elon Musk: "By the end of April, there will be “close to zero” new coronavirus cases in the U.S."
While most of these people are just pundits, Musk is someone whose poor judgement actually cost lives. In defiance of local government officials, Musk re-opened his factory two weeks later. He had good reasons. He was set to gets billions in bonuses if he could keep the production up and stock prices high no matter how many lives it cost. And now in a snit, he is moving his headquarters from California to Texas.
Fuck that guy. He is the worst.
posted by JackFlash at 10:35 AM on December 29, 2020 [50 favorites]
While most of these people are just pundits, Musk is someone whose poor judgement actually cost lives. In defiance of local government officials, Musk re-opened his factory two weeks later. He had good reasons. He was set to gets billions in bonuses if he could keep the production up and stock prices high no matter how many lives it cost. And now in a snit, he is moving his headquarters from California to Texas.
Fuck that guy. He is the worst.
posted by JackFlash at 10:35 AM on December 29, 2020 [50 favorites]
That Ted Cruz sentiment was echoed by my Mother-in-law back in July, and it really took all my willpower to not tell her to fuck off.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 10:41 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 10:41 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Well, I guess I will be comforted that my political predictions (not my strong suit) usually fail because of an instance where Democrats either don't respond to their constituents like I thought they would or lack the power to do so. I haven't been foolish enough to expect generosity, helpfulness, shame or justice from Republicans since Bush v Gore, and I was in middle school at that time.
It kind of seems like there should be a category of just "polls, by 5-10%"
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:43 AM on December 29, 2020
It kind of seems like there should be a category of just "polls, by 5-10%"
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:43 AM on December 29, 2020
Others are bad faith bullshit from people who knew full well what they were doing, and being accurate was never the point.
Really, a huge percentage of the list seems liked people who were paid to say one thing whether they believed it or not, just to influence the potential outcome (in a "throw it at the wall, and we'll see what sticks" sort of way).
Once those are removed, there are still some clunkers, but the list is about 25% as long.
Lost down the Memory Hole is all the breathless predictions from right wingers that Ebola would devastate the USA during the Obama administration. I remember lurking on some wingnut sites that showed allegedly empty hospitals that had been secretly abandoned because of the massive Ebola contamination and deaths. In one case at least, the empty hospital photos turned out to be shots of a renovation project
Funny you should mention that. About 4 years ago, one of my tasks was to dismantle all the computer equipment in a hospital.
Because the day before, we opened a new hospital.
And, we're renovating the old hospital. (Halfway through. Think asbestos and stuff.) I did a walk-through and the place did look dismal once it was gutted of anything useful. It really would be a good source to get pictures to show an abandoned hospital. Fortunately all the doors to patient wings were locked 24/7.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 10:52 AM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
Really, a huge percentage of the list seems liked people who were paid to say one thing whether they believed it or not, just to influence the potential outcome (in a "throw it at the wall, and we'll see what sticks" sort of way).
Once those are removed, there are still some clunkers, but the list is about 25% as long.
Lost down the Memory Hole is all the breathless predictions from right wingers that Ebola would devastate the USA during the Obama administration. I remember lurking on some wingnut sites that showed allegedly empty hospitals that had been secretly abandoned because of the massive Ebola contamination and deaths. In one case at least, the empty hospital photos turned out to be shots of a renovation project
Funny you should mention that. About 4 years ago, one of my tasks was to dismantle all the computer equipment in a hospital.
Because the day before, we opened a new hospital.
And, we're renovating the old hospital. (Halfway through. Think asbestos and stuff.) I did a walk-through and the place did look dismal once it was gutted of anything useful. It really would be a good source to get pictures to show an abandoned hospital. Fortunately all the doors to patient wings were locked 24/7.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 10:52 AM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
“We’re not going to see an effective [coronavirus] vaccine proven safe until well into 2021, if then”
probably true for values of "we" broader than congress and the tip of healthcare providers and values of "see" that include see first-hand, or attain access to.
posted by 20 year lurk at 10:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
probably true for values of "we" broader than congress and the tip of healthcare providers and values of "see" that include see first-hand, or attain access to.
posted by 20 year lurk at 10:58 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
Because I'm an idiot, there's a lot of fighting in my Twitter feed over whether physicists are smarter than social scientists. I'm looking through these predictions (which are not made by social scientists, but lets be real: if they were they wouldn't be any better) and thinking, "well, actually predicting what millions of people are going to do is kind of hard..."
If the physicists would like to step in and show us all how to make accurate predictions about humanity, the time is now. Show us what you got. I'll be over here sipping my tea.
posted by klanawa at 11:02 AM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
If the physicists would like to step in and show us all how to make accurate predictions about humanity, the time is now. Show us what you got. I'll be over here sipping my tea.
posted by klanawa at 11:02 AM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
If the physicists would like to step in and show us all how to make accurate predictions about humanity, the time is now. Show us what you got. I'll be over here sipping my tea.
That's easy: extinction.
Oh, you meant short- and medium-term predictions? Why are you bothering with such minutiae?
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:07 AM on December 29, 2020 [24 favorites]
That's easy: extinction.
Oh, you meant short- and medium-term predictions? Why are you bothering with such minutiae?
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:07 AM on December 29, 2020 [24 favorites]
Isn't that like me telling you that I'll listen to social scientists once they get room-temp superconductors working?
posted by thelonius at 11:11 AM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by thelonius at 11:11 AM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
consider a spherical future...
posted by j_curiouser at 11:19 AM on December 29, 2020 [41 favorites]
posted by j_curiouser at 11:19 AM on December 29, 2020 [41 favorites]
And I certainly do wonder why he ever got his job.
I still can't believe they gave him his own tv show, to be honest.
I don’t know why he’s allowed to have shoelaces and pointy objects.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:24 AM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
I still can't believe they gave him his own tv show, to be honest.
I don’t know why he’s allowed to have shoelaces and pointy objects.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:24 AM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
when 538 was at the NYT, I remember Nate Silver getting in trouble for offering to place a bet on some prediction or other (maybe on a TV show?). People (including at the paper) were weirdly scandalized by this, but I saw some folks jumping to his defense because a bet is a tax on bullshit. and tbh, since people don't often seem to lose their TV shows, political office, or media interviews for making BS predictions that turn out to not be true, I would sort of be in favor of a system of bet placing for these kinds of predictions.
posted by dismas at 11:28 AM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by dismas at 11:28 AM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
Prediction markets are a whole thing.
posted by atoxyl at 11:36 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by atoxyl at 11:36 AM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
These people are not pundits, they're semi-professional virtue signalers who have zero interest in being correct. They're just trying to mould reality by wishing it so, a al The Secret.
posted by GuyZero at 11:38 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by GuyZero at 11:38 AM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
which are not made by social scientists, but lets be real: if they were they wouldn't be any better
The issue is less training than entrenched bias which is completely independent of what you studied in college.
Scott Adams is just a withered husk of hatred and right-wing wishes at this point. He's not making a prediction in any sense that a rational person understands it - he's writing fan fiction about politicians.
posted by GuyZero at 11:40 AM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
The issue is less training than entrenched bias which is completely independent of what you studied in college.
Scott Adams is just a withered husk of hatred and right-wing wishes at this point. He's not making a prediction in any sense that a rational person understands it - he's writing fan fiction about politicians.
posted by GuyZero at 11:40 AM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
They're just trying to mould reality by wishing it so, a al The Secret.
i think that's mostly not far off, guyzero.
posted by j_curiouser at 11:41 AM on December 29, 2020
i think that's mostly not far off, guyzero.
posted by j_curiouser at 11:41 AM on December 29, 2020
Prediction markets are a whole thing.
And boy are they stupid, Charlie Brown.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:45 AM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
And boy are they stupid, Charlie Brown.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:45 AM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
When I saw Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five in Denver's Rainbow Music Hall in about 1981, I predicted "rap music" was a fun and interesting phenomenon but couldn't possibly be more than a passing fad, because "Where's the melody?" etc. So much for my career as a musical prognosticator.
posted by kozad at 12:10 PM on December 29, 2020 [15 favorites]
posted by kozad at 12:10 PM on December 29, 2020 [15 favorites]
Rachel Maddow got this one right. After shedding 30 million jobs in the previous months, 4.8 million new jobs is absolutely terrible.
The second quarter GDP went down 32.8% and the third quarter GDP went up 38%. Sounds good, right? It's a net loss of 6.4%. Think this a 50% loss leaves you at 50%. A 50% increase from that puts you at 75%.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:19 PM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
The second quarter GDP went down 32.8% and the third quarter GDP went up 38%. Sounds good, right? It's a net loss of 6.4%. Think this a 50% loss leaves you at 50%. A 50% increase from that puts you at 75%.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:19 PM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
Trump will no-show the debates with BidenSubstantially incorrect: Trump bailed on the second debate.
PREDICTED BY AMY SISKIND (AMONG OTHERS), AUG. 4 AND AUG. 5
Trump debated Biden.
posted by fantabulous timewaster at 12:25 PM on December 29, 2020 [13 favorites]
there's a lot of fighting in my Twitter feed over whether physicists are smarter than social scientists....
Physics was the first science to be mathematized because the math involved in general physics is significantly easier than the math involved in modeling or predicting complex systems composed of networks of complex sub-systems, aka human societies.
posted by eviemath at 12:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
Physics was the first science to be mathematized because the math involved in general physics is significantly easier than the math involved in modeling or predicting complex systems composed of networks of complex sub-systems, aka human societies.
posted by eviemath at 12:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
Isn't that like me telling you that I'll listen to social scientists once they get room-temp superconductors working?
You ever hear social scientists claim that it would be "easy?"
posted by klanawa at 12:49 PM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
You ever hear social scientists claim that it would be "easy?"
posted by klanawa at 12:49 PM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
Trump will no-show the debates with Biden
Others may disagree, but the way many stories were presented in Politico re: any election stuff over this cycle (and maybe even back in to H. Clinton's) made me just stop reading them altogether. I read this figuring there was no way they could slant it.
So, I guess that's my bad prediction of 2020 and I'll go back to not reading them.
(eta: but, it was only one debate! he didn't no show on debates plural!!!)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 12:51 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Others may disagree, but the way many stories were presented in Politico re: any election stuff over this cycle (and maybe even back in to H. Clinton's) made me just stop reading them altogether. I read this figuring there was no way they could slant it.
So, I guess that's my bad prediction of 2020 and I'll go back to not reading them.
(eta: but, it was only one debate! he didn't no show on debates plural!!!)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 12:51 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Pundit types they have an incentive to be contrarian, the same way VCs want to fund "disruptive" tech and win big one time in a thousand. They parade the rare wins to explain how they are geniuses, and a lot probably believe it about themselves. They just omit that they are 95% wrong. Scott Adams and many others are in this category.
The other pundits' fallacy is thinking Americans agree with you. A few of those are here, as in "Americans will vote against Biden because of Iraq" which was wrong on many different levels. And many overconfident mediocrities asserting things they don't know much about, like "my statistical model shows Trump will get 362 EVs" or "Kanye West will split the Black vote."
The rest of these though are bullshitters ("Trump will concede gracefully"), grifters ("Trump will protect us"), or most kindly people trying to frame themselves or their plans optimistically ("South Carolina won't help Biden", "Republicans won't subvert the entire impeachment process")
What is there not much of? People making defensible predictions that just didn't happen. Maybe 1-2 of those.
posted by mark k at 1:00 PM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
The other pundits' fallacy is thinking Americans agree with you. A few of those are here, as in "Americans will vote against Biden because of Iraq" which was wrong on many different levels. And many overconfident mediocrities asserting things they don't know much about, like "my statistical model shows Trump will get 362 EVs" or "Kanye West will split the Black vote."
The rest of these though are bullshitters ("Trump will concede gracefully"), grifters ("Trump will protect us"), or most kindly people trying to frame themselves or their plans optimistically ("South Carolina won't help Biden", "Republicans won't subvert the entire impeachment process")
What is there not much of? People making defensible predictions that just didn't happen. Maybe 1-2 of those.
posted by mark k at 1:00 PM on December 29, 2020 [6 favorites]
I still can't believe they gave him his own tv show, to be honest.
Oh I can. "Look at this shitty person" is a tried-and-true platform to put some flimsy skin over. It's even a reliable premise for a mefi post if it's camouflaged enough. (One weird trick the mods don't want you to do!)
Thing is, that should automatically disqualify the shitty person from anything else, ever. That's the stupid part.
posted by ctmf at 1:24 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
Oh I can. "Look at this shitty person" is a tried-and-true platform to put some flimsy skin over. It's even a reliable premise for a mefi post if it's camouflaged enough. (One weird trick the mods don't want you to do!)
Thing is, that should automatically disqualify the shitty person from anything else, ever. That's the stupid part.
posted by ctmf at 1:24 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
This article perfectly highlights why news reporting and "the news" generally today is terrible. Because we don't get "news." We get commentary. Endless, tireless commentary.
"Up next, there could be a windex shortage in 2021. What this will mean for the jobs market."
"The cost of potatoes is on the rise. This could have serious implications for U.S. foreign relations."
"Is there something fishy going on with solar subsidies? This could create unexpected consequences for the dairy industry."
That's not news. That's speculative commentary. And I'm talking directly at you, NPR, you bottomless pit of pointless speculation.
I feel like I remember some metafilter rule that if a journo ever frames their story as a question the answer is always, always, always, "no."
posted by Baby_Balrog at 1:27 PM on December 29, 2020 [24 favorites]
"Up next, there could be a windex shortage in 2021. What this will mean for the jobs market."
"The cost of potatoes is on the rise. This could have serious implications for U.S. foreign relations."
"Is there something fishy going on with solar subsidies? This could create unexpected consequences for the dairy industry."
That's not news. That's speculative commentary. And I'm talking directly at you, NPR, you bottomless pit of pointless speculation.
I feel like I remember some metafilter rule that if a journo ever frames their story as a question the answer is always, always, always, "no."
posted by Baby_Balrog at 1:27 PM on December 29, 2020 [24 favorites]
This is your regularly scheduled reminder to make your end of year charitable donation to Propublica rather than NPR. Support journalism rather than speculative bothsidesism.
posted by benzenedream at 1:32 PM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by benzenedream at 1:32 PM on December 29, 2020 [7 favorites]
Bettridge's Law of Headlines
I would suggest you rephrase the questions as simple yes/no answers to the question:
"Up next, there could be a windex shortage in 2021. Will this destroy the glass cleaner market?"
"The cost of potatoes is on the rise. Will this cause issues between the U.S. and Ireland who once had a potato famine?"
"Is there something fishy going on with solar subsidies? < cut full sentence >."
They are pretty easy to see when you see a lot of them. I find them to be like the clickly linkbait stuff at an end of an article from some website you don't visit very often. Not worth the clink, except for 2% of the time.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 1:40 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
I would suggest you rephrase the questions as simple yes/no answers to the question:
"Up next, there could be a windex shortage in 2021. Will this destroy the glass cleaner market?"
"The cost of potatoes is on the rise. Will this cause issues between the U.S. and Ireland who once had a potato famine?"
"Is there something fishy going on with solar subsidies? < cut full sentence >."
They are pretty easy to see when you see a lot of them. I find them to be like the clickly linkbait stuff at an end of an article from some website you don't visit very often. Not worth the clink, except for 2% of the time.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 1:40 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
This is your regularly scheduled reminder to make your end of year charitable donation to Propublica rather than NPR. Support journalism rather than speculative bothsidesism.
And, not to Politico, I hope?
I do love me some ProPublica.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 1:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
And, not to Politico, I hope?
I do love me some ProPublica.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 1:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
No, wait, listen. Here's how Bernie can still win this.
I spent a bit of time soothing my post election paranoia by reading trump supporter message boards (i do not recommend this), and there does still seem to be a substantial contingent that are hanging onto the hope of a january 6th election re-set, incredibly.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 1:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
I spent a bit of time soothing my post election paranoia by reading trump supporter message boards (i do not recommend this), and there does still seem to be a substantial contingent that are hanging onto the hope of a january 6th election re-set, incredibly.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 1:41 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
I’d give most of these fools a pass. As part of the infotainment system, many of them have to create content, usually out of the whole cloth.
As the late, truly great Dr. Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, particularly about the future.”
posted by sudogeek at 1:59 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
As the late, truly great Dr. Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, particularly about the future.”
posted by sudogeek at 1:59 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Because we don't get "news." We get commentary. Endless, tireless commentary.
Reuters is pretty good at not doing this. Their FACT CHECK is also worth a regular look-in.
For instance: Photo does not show Nashville blast suspect wearing a Trump hat
posted by philip-random at 2:01 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Reuters is pretty good at not doing this. Their FACT CHECK is also worth a regular look-in.
For instance: Photo does not show Nashville blast suspect wearing a Trump hat
posted by philip-random at 2:01 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
When I saw Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five in Denver's Rainbow Music Hall in about 1981, I predicted "rap music" was a fun and interesting phenomenon but couldn't possibly be more than a passing fad, because "Where's the melody?" etc. So much for my career as a musical prognosticator.
Yeah, I got this wrong too! Now, looking all the way back to 1980 or so, I don't really see any other major new style having developed in popular music.
There have been new fusions of different genres (country, Latin American music, Americana, R&B, gospel, etc), sure. People have continued to make idiosyncratic, experimental rock or serious art rock, and the best of it was original and it was very good. But I see those as continuations of late twentieth century veins that were well-established by 1980, not as anything truly novel. What major new development has there even been, in rock, since punk? Rock has been in a postmodern condition for a long time, with artists exploring pastiches of different historical styles and, hopefully, finding an original idiom for their expression in doing so.
Maybe electronica or EDM having gotten a mass audience counts in my undefined-above sense of "major new style", I'm not sure.
posted by thelonius at 2:20 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Yeah, I got this wrong too! Now, looking all the way back to 1980 or so, I don't really see any other major new style having developed in popular music.
There have been new fusions of different genres (country, Latin American music, Americana, R&B, gospel, etc), sure. People have continued to make idiosyncratic, experimental rock or serious art rock, and the best of it was original and it was very good. But I see those as continuations of late twentieth century veins that were well-established by 1980, not as anything truly novel. What major new development has there even been, in rock, since punk? Rock has been in a postmodern condition for a long time, with artists exploring pastiches of different historical styles and, hopefully, finding an original idiom for their expression in doing so.
Maybe electronica or EDM having gotten a mass audience counts in my undefined-above sense of "major new style", I'm not sure.
posted by thelonius at 2:20 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Heh, one thing we can all agree is going to happen is four years of. “BERNIE WOHLD HAV WON!!!!!1” from the usual suspects
sideshow, not sure if you're on about MetaFilter or the world in general, but (a) my impression was that a comment of yours already motivated this site's biggest Bernie bro to close his account in disgust, and (b) it's been a long time now since your guy beat Bernie, so...? At some point you've gotta ask who's the one beating the dead horse.
posted by Beardman at 2:37 PM on December 29, 2020 [10 favorites]
sideshow, not sure if you're on about MetaFilter or the world in general, but (a) my impression was that a comment of yours already motivated this site's biggest Bernie bro to close his account in disgust, and (b) it's been a long time now since your guy beat Bernie, so...? At some point you've gotta ask who's the one beating the dead horse.
posted by Beardman at 2:37 PM on December 29, 2020 [10 favorites]
Considering the final results of Don vs Biden, I'm pretty sure Bernie would have lost. I have not made a comment like that here before.
posted by SoberHighland at 3:46 PM on December 29, 2020 [16 favorites]
posted by SoberHighland at 3:46 PM on December 29, 2020 [16 favorites]
think we are getting close to derail territory, and I am going to flag my own comment so the mods know.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:02 PM on December 29, 2020
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:02 PM on December 29, 2020
Predicting outcomes involving human actions is hard because humans can be irrational. How many social scientists predicted CA lock down having such disappointing outcome? If it turns out that the various state governors consulted the social scientists just to end up like we have 10 months down the line, then it only contributes to further erosion of public trust in the so called experts.
posted by asra at 4:22 PM on December 29, 2020
posted by asra at 4:22 PM on December 29, 2020
you kind of have to wonder why some of these people still have jobs.
Because nobody does this kind of checking seriously.
In the futurist profession, people actually do evaluate their work. It helps improve practice.
posted by doctornemo at 4:35 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Because nobody does this kind of checking seriously.
In the futurist profession, people actually do evaluate their work. It helps improve practice.
posted by doctornemo at 4:35 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
When I saw Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five in Denver's Rainbow Music Hall in about 1981, I predicted "rap music" was a fun and interesting phenomenon but
Back around 1999 a bunch of Dracula scholars met in Romania. Yes, I do have stories, but the one that matters is our discussion about where horror would go next. Our much debated, deeply informed consensus? Vampires were utterly played out. Ghosts would be the next big thing.
Ah well.
posted by doctornemo at 4:36 PM on December 29, 2020 [15 favorites]
Back around 1999 a bunch of Dracula scholars met in Romania. Yes, I do have stories, but the one that matters is our discussion about where horror would go next. Our much debated, deeply informed consensus? Vampires were utterly played out. Ghosts would be the next big thing.
Ah well.
posted by doctornemo at 4:36 PM on December 29, 2020 [15 favorites]
The media likes to hold itself up as some moral paragon, but really, it's a profession rife with nepotism.
It doesn't take any specialized education and relies a lot upon connections, belonging to the right clique, knowing how to speak like each other (and that doesn't even mean having the same political allegiances.)
If it was about skill and insight, this guy would have been dismissed long ago, but he remains because checks all the boxes:
Predictions from pundit Bill Kristol, for instance, have earned the catchphrase “Kristol Ball,” the premise being that if Kristol predicts it, the opposite will be true.
posted by Borborygmus at 4:45 PM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
It doesn't take any specialized education and relies a lot upon connections, belonging to the right clique, knowing how to speak like each other (and that doesn't even mean having the same political allegiances.)
If it was about skill and insight, this guy would have been dismissed long ago, but he remains because checks all the boxes:
Predictions from pundit Bill Kristol, for instance, have earned the catchphrase “Kristol Ball,” the premise being that if Kristol predicts it, the opposite will be true.
posted by Borborygmus at 4:45 PM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
I made the call that Trump would never pardon Manafort. It would be smart to leave him hanging, and what does Donnie know about loyalty?
I was proven wrong later that afternoon. From this, I infer one or more of the following (and probably all):
1) I have no idea what I’m doing,
2) Trump has no idea what he’s doing.
3) That man exists solely to personally vex me.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:48 PM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
I was proven wrong later that afternoon. From this, I infer one or more of the following (and probably all):
1) I have no idea what I’m doing,
2) Trump has no idea what he’s doing.
3) That man exists solely to personally vex me.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:48 PM on December 29, 2020 [17 favorites]
Well, I was pretty certain "Remain" would win the Brexit referendum, and even if it didn't, there was no way any government would be insane enough to leave the single market. I also expected that racist clown Trump to not even make it halfway through the nomination process. Back in early January I was sure Covid-19 would most likely die out quite quickly in asia, like all the other bird flu and SARS 'global pandemic' scares.
My working assumption is I accidentally crossed over to the shittiest timeline.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:09 PM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
My working assumption is I accidentally crossed over to the shittiest timeline.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 5:09 PM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
At some point in the early megathreads probably in late 2015, I predicted that the republicans would never actually nominated Trump and would almost certainly go with Jeb or Walker.
posted by octothorpe at 5:21 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 5:21 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
@BoozyBadger on twitter (previously) tweeted this on Dec 31, 2019, and he's apologized continually for it all across 2020.
posted by hippybear at 6:23 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 6:23 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
My working assumption is I accidentally crossed over to the shittiest timeline.
With the apparently fake Space Force uniform thing today, I was reminded that the various Star Trek shows have never gotten very deep into what the evil Mirror Universe historical timeline looked like in the 21st century.
I'm lying, of course they have
posted by figurant at 6:38 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
With the apparently fake Space Force uniform thing today, I was reminded that the various Star Trek shows have never gotten very deep into what the evil Mirror Universe historical timeline looked like in the 21st century.
I'm lying, of course they have
posted by figurant at 6:38 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
"well, actually predicting what millions of people are going to do is kind of hard..."
Media people: Hey, predict the future for us!
Randos: Um that's impossible.
Media people; Do it anyway!
Randos: Ok here's my prediction.
Media people: [waiting... waiting...] Har Har your prediction was wrong!
posted by medusa at 7:04 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
Media people: Hey, predict the future for us!
Randos: Um that's impossible.
Media people; Do it anyway!
Randos: Ok here's my prediction.
Media people: [waiting... waiting...] Har Har your prediction was wrong!
posted by medusa at 7:04 PM on December 29, 2020 [2 favorites]
We’ll know who won the presidency by 10 on election night?
2020 will be a “low-turnout election”?
Seems to me that a rather important erroneous general prediction is left out of this list: that the November 2020 election was going to be a U.S. Presidential election.
Instead, in hindsight, it seems like we can pretty confidently say that it was in fact a vote on whether or not to retain democracy as the U.S. political system in name only, and we came close to having our last democratic election.
Trump lost, and the result was an avalanche of broadly supported coup d'état / autocoup attempts. Had he won, the next step would have been an Enabling Act, or some similar substitute for the first order of business at the same point in 2017 being filing to form the Trump 2020 campaign corporate structures rather than, like, filling out the paperwork to present his cabinet nominees to Congress properly.
posted by XMLicious at 7:57 PM on December 29, 2020 [5 favorites]
It wasn't hindsight to me; it was clear to me well before the election that if Trump won it was going to be our last even vaguely free election. And I'm still not too optimistic about 2024, either, given that Democrats can expect to lose the House in 2022.
posted by tavella at 9:29 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 9:29 PM on December 29, 2020 [1 favorite]
Instead, in hindsight, it seems like we can pretty confidently say that it was in fact a vote on whether or not to retain democracy as the U.S. political system in name only, and we came close to having our last democratic election.
I felt this in my bones before, during, and after the election. Nov. 3 could have been our last election ever.
posted by ichomp at 9:29 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
I felt this in my bones before, during, and after the election. Nov. 3 could have been our last election ever.
posted by ichomp at 9:29 PM on December 29, 2020 [3 favorites]
Consider a spherical physicist ...
posted by Metacircular at 11:12 PM on December 29, 2020
posted by Metacircular at 11:12 PM on December 29, 2020
2020: Many overconfident mediocrities asserting things they don't know much about
posted by daybeforetheday at 4:18 AM on December 30, 2020
posted by daybeforetheday at 4:18 AM on December 30, 2020
consider a spherical future...
To be fair, Q idiots and anti-vax idiots and Fake Covid idiots and Agenda 21 idiots and Flat Earth idiots and Trump Won idiots have been giving uniform density a red-hot go.
posted by flabdablet at 4:27 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
To be fair, Q idiots and anti-vax idiots and Fake Covid idiots and Agenda 21 idiots and Flat Earth idiots and Trump Won idiots have been giving uniform density a red-hot go.
posted by flabdablet at 4:27 AM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
Earlier in this year, Politico did a series of "Smoke Filled Zooms" with GOP campaign managers to get their predictions on how the election would unfold and it makes for some fascinating reading now. (Also link to their final Election Eve session with references to all of the roundtables in the series)
They got more than a few things right, like the Democrats not being able to take Latinx support for granted, and/or social unrest driving up conservative turnout. And they're generally pretty candid and sanguine about Biden winning and the universe of Republicans shrinking, but often there's one puzzle piece that they get wrong that throws off their guesses. Like there were a lot of bets that Biden would self destruct via gaffe (which he has done before!) and that didn't happen. There were also a lot of expectations that Trump would have a stronger campaign because he had a fundraising advantage, and that turned out to be a mirage.
The take bingo is fun schadenfreude but it's also fascinating to revisit the longer articles and see how these pundits put their predictions together to and how good analyses get wrecked by bias.
posted by bl1nk at 5:10 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
They got more than a few things right, like the Democrats not being able to take Latinx support for granted, and/or social unrest driving up conservative turnout. And they're generally pretty candid and sanguine about Biden winning and the universe of Republicans shrinking, but often there's one puzzle piece that they get wrong that throws off their guesses. Like there were a lot of bets that Biden would self destruct via gaffe (which he has done before!) and that didn't happen. There were also a lot of expectations that Trump would have a stronger campaign because he had a fundraising advantage, and that turned out to be a mirage.
The take bingo is fun schadenfreude but it's also fascinating to revisit the longer articles and see how these pundits put their predictions together to and how good analyses get wrecked by bias.
posted by bl1nk at 5:10 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
Heh, one thing we can all agree is going to happen is four years of. “BERNIE WOHLD HAV WON!!!!!1” from the usual suspects, with a dash of “Biden only won because of X, Y, Z” from people who say “centrist” a lot.
Here's a preditiction for 2021 - you won't hear that from me.
posted by durandal at 6:38 AM on December 30, 2020
Here's a preditiction for 2021 - you won't hear that from me.
posted by durandal at 6:38 AM on December 30, 2020
The outcome of the 2020 election was a relief. But the level of Latinx support for Trumpism, fascism—and more specifically, the level of Latinx opposition to — ahem — "socialism" is one of the most depressing aspects of this very depressing year.
posted by SoberHighland at 8:37 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by SoberHighland at 8:37 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
given that Democrats can expect to lose the House in 2022.
sounds like a prediction to me.
and more specifically, the level of Latinx opposition to — ahem — "socialism" is one of the most depressing aspects of this very depressing year.
and here's one from me. It will be a long, long time before a majority of Americans (or more importantly, a majority of Electoral College votes) will get behind anything that openly calls itself socialism, even with a small "s". I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't put money on it. And along the same lines, the near term future of the Democratic Party will not see it moving any further to the left, as the big gain now will be in opening their doors to those right leaning types who do actually sorta kinda believe that America should in fact be democratic. People like Steve Schmidt.
And ummm, speaking of 2020 predictions, I think a lot of people got a lot right this past year, starting with everyone that was worried that we wouldn't know who won the election on election night, and that Trump would try to spin this to his advantage, would not admit defeat, would go to ultimately absurd ends to undermine the integrity of the election. There's also everyone who predicted that covid-19 would end up being pretty much everything Trump and co said it wouldn't.
posted by philip-random at 9:08 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
sounds like a prediction to me.
and more specifically, the level of Latinx opposition to — ahem — "socialism" is one of the most depressing aspects of this very depressing year.
and here's one from me. It will be a long, long time before a majority of Americans (or more importantly, a majority of Electoral College votes) will get behind anything that openly calls itself socialism, even with a small "s". I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't put money on it. And along the same lines, the near term future of the Democratic Party will not see it moving any further to the left, as the big gain now will be in opening their doors to those right leaning types who do actually sorta kinda believe that America should in fact be democratic. People like Steve Schmidt.
And ummm, speaking of 2020 predictions, I think a lot of people got a lot right this past year, starting with everyone that was worried that we wouldn't know who won the election on election night, and that Trump would try to spin this to his advantage, would not admit defeat, would go to ultimately absurd ends to undermine the integrity of the election. There's also everyone who predicted that covid-19 would end up being pretty much everything Trump and co said it wouldn't.
posted by philip-random at 9:08 AM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
Vox co-founder Matthew Yglesias on predictions: How to be less full of shit. He says that Philip Tetlock's book Superforecasting is really good.
... my main takeaway from the study of predictions: don’t predict so much stuff! Predictions are commonly used as one form or another of bad faith rhetorical device in punditry. People predict doom for politicians as a way of saying they don’t like them or predict failure of political tactics as a way of saying they don’t approve of them. Or they’ll issue dire prophecies of doom as a way of saying they want to get people more concerned. This encourages sloppy thinking.When he sits down and tries it himself:
... people who are good at predicting things actually try to check whether or not their predictions are any good. It’s just like anything else in life. Unless you actually pay attention to what you’re doing, you won’t do it well. So how do you do that? Well, here’s how a disciplined predictor of things would behave:The key thing is that “good predicting” doesn’t mean that everything you said would happen does in fact happen. Rather, good predicting means that if you predict 10 different things each with 70 percent confidence then 7 of them should happen. If all 10 happen, you’re being under-confident in your forecasts. If none of them happen, of course, your predictions are garbage.
- If you’re inclined to offer a prediction, make sure to write it down. And be really specific about what you’re predicting.
- And even though there’s necessarily going to be an air of false precision to it, give your prediction a numerical possibility. When you say “X” is going to happen, does that mean you’re saying it’s like a 99 percent near-certainty or a 51 percent more-likely-than-not.
- Then go back periodically to check whether the things you predicted would happen did, in fact, happen.
The flip side of resolving to do fewer tossed-off predictions is that I did think it would be instructive to try my hand at some rigorous predicting. As I sat down to do this, I immediately got apprehensive.He makes 25 predictions for 2021. The first few:
I have no real experience with trying to do proper forecasting, so the odds are that my skill level is low. I kept thinking this list stands a good chance of turning out to be really embarrassing. But that’s actually the point. It feels potentially embarrassing because writing down explicit predictions with odds means I’ll be held accountable if I turn out to be wrong. Yet that’s the discipline — it’s only by doing something with accountability that you get the possibility of improving.
posted by russilwvong at 9:49 AM on December 30, 2020 [5 favorites]
- Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win the Georgia Senate races (60%)
- The same party wins both Senate races in Georgia (95%)
- Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating (70%)
- Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating above 50% (60%)
- US GDP growth in 2021 is the fastest of any year of the 21st century (80%)
- The year-end unemployment rate is below 5 percent (80%)
That description reminds me: I don't know if he still does it, but Brad DeLong during the financial crisis would occasionally "mark his ideas to market." (The phrase refers to an accounting rule to honestly value what something you own is worth, even if you're not trying to sell it.) He'd go through things he thought and see if they were holding up. Often they didn't, or not very well.
I don't think it's coincidental that, while so many center left types are tut-tutting about irresponsible people on the left, the economist who did this exercise came out in favor of the Green New Deal, because trying to work with supposed moderates to get a deal to fight climate change had demonstrated it wouldn't work out.
It's a good exercise, and better if you set criteria before hand too.
posted by mark k at 10:02 AM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
I don't think it's coincidental that, while so many center left types are tut-tutting about irresponsible people on the left, the economist who did this exercise came out in favor of the Green New Deal, because trying to work with supposed moderates to get a deal to fight climate change had demonstrated it wouldn't work out.
It's a good exercise, and better if you set criteria before hand too.
posted by mark k at 10:02 AM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
My favorite true prediction was that the spread of Covid was related to the population density, in both senses of the word.
posted by signal at 10:15 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by signal at 10:15 AM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
Well, here’s how a disciplined predictor of things would behave:
I think step 0, before you go about either making or checking your predictions about future events, is to make quite sure that the things you believe have already happened have, in fact, happened. Seems basic, but also oddly does not seem to be consistently applied for a lot of editorial.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:22 PM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
I think step 0, before you go about either making or checking your predictions about future events, is to make quite sure that the things you believe have already happened have, in fact, happened. Seems basic, but also oddly does not seem to be consistently applied for a lot of editorial.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:22 PM on December 30, 2020 [4 favorites]
It will be a long, long time before a majority of Americans (or more importantly, a majority of Electoral College votes) will get behind anything that openly calls itself socialism, even with a small "s".
Yes. It's more clear than ever how conservative the U.S. is as a country, and how stubbornly resistant change a large number of Americans are.
posted by ichomp at 1:01 PM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
Yes. It's more clear than ever how conservative the U.S. is as a country, and how stubbornly resistant change a large number of Americans are.
posted by ichomp at 1:01 PM on December 30, 2020 [1 favorite]
the level of Latinx support for Trumpism, fascism—and more specifically, the level of Latinx opposition to — ahem — "socialism" is one of the most depressing aspects of this very depressing year.
I don't read much into the Latinx support for Trump, specifically. It would be different if Trump were a "normal" President, but his continued popularity tells me that most Americans pick leaders the way they pick sports teams. Trump has star power: people knew about him, and he's entertaining, so he's popular. A significant number of Americans do actually care about integrity and ability, but Biden barely squeaked in when facing someone with less of those qualities than any President in living memory.
I hate to say this, but Democrats are going to have to be guided by a search for ratings. They need candidates to appear on popular TV years in advance, doing things that make them seem powerful and effective. If someone can make a TV show where AOC and Buttigieg team up to fight crime, they'd have 2024 in the bag.
I'm not even joking.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:43 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
I don't read much into the Latinx support for Trump, specifically. It would be different if Trump were a "normal" President, but his continued popularity tells me that most Americans pick leaders the way they pick sports teams. Trump has star power: people knew about him, and he's entertaining, so he's popular. A significant number of Americans do actually care about integrity and ability, but Biden barely squeaked in when facing someone with less of those qualities than any President in living memory.
I hate to say this, but Democrats are going to have to be guided by a search for ratings. They need candidates to appear on popular TV years in advance, doing things that make them seem powerful and effective. If someone can make a TV show where AOC and Buttigieg team up to fight crime, they'd have 2024 in the bag.
I'm not even joking.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:43 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
the level of Latinx support for Trumpism, fascism—and more specifically, the level of Latinx opposition to — ahem — "socialism" is one of the most depressing aspects of this very depressing year.
I think its rather dismissive to single out Latino vote -- which went 2 to 1 for Biden -- when you have whites voting 60% for Trump at -- twice the rate of Latinos.
And be careful putting too much stock in exit polls of Latino voting. Because the samples are so small, the margin of error is plus or minus 10%, which is a lot.
posted by JackFlash at 2:09 PM on December 30, 2020 [7 favorites]
I think its rather dismissive to single out Latino vote -- which went 2 to 1 for Biden -- when you have whites voting 60% for Trump at -- twice the rate of Latinos.
And be careful putting too much stock in exit polls of Latino voting. Because the samples are so small, the margin of error is plus or minus 10%, which is a lot.
posted by JackFlash at 2:09 PM on December 30, 2020 [7 favorites]
I hate to say this, but Democrats are going to have to be guided by a search for ratings. They need candidates to appear on popular TV years in advance, doing things that make them seem powerful and effective.
Yes. People underestimate how much Trump learned from his time in the world of pro wrestling. Dems would be wise to study this.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 3:26 PM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
Yes. People underestimate how much Trump learned from his time in the world of pro wrestling. Dems would be wise to study this.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 3:26 PM on December 30, 2020 [2 favorites]
I hate to say this, but Democrats are going to have to be guided by a search for ratings.
You could simplify this to say that Democrats need a deeper bench. They need more stars than just AOC and Buttigieg and a bunch of people closer to 100 than 30. Especially in the battle ground states.
posted by The_Vegetables at 4:10 PM on December 30, 2020 [6 favorites]
You could simplify this to say that Democrats need a deeper bench. They need more stars than just AOC and Buttigieg and a bunch of people closer to 100 than 30. Especially in the battle ground states.
posted by The_Vegetables at 4:10 PM on December 30, 2020 [6 favorites]
I'm really hesitant to emulate GOP strategies. I think GOTV and grassroots organizing, canvassing and engaging young voters so you keep them for a generation or even a lifetime is a lot more valuable.
The TV and entertainment factor speaks to many Americans and that's on us. It's embarrassing and it's fact.
posted by ichomp at 4:14 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
The TV and entertainment factor speaks to many Americans and that's on us. It's embarrassing and it's fact.
posted by ichomp at 4:14 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
What major new development has there even been, in rock, since punk?
If you actually consider Punk to be a new development in rock, then there's plenty of room to describe new styles in popular music, consider (insert 10,000 word rant about developments in popular music over the last 30 years that critics who stopped listening in 1986 overlook- oh hello Moderator, Happy New,Year!)
Anyway, my wrong predictions:
Covid won't be that much of a problem. Granted, this was back in oh, end of January? I reversed that in about two weeks. But still, I was way off.
OK, but surely we'll have it under control enough to open campus for Fall semester. AHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!! *sobs*
No. No way. I'm just too used to creators inserting fanservice, and frenzied fan slashing. No way is Noelle Stevenson going to able to take the Adora/Cara subtext and make it text.
Oh. My. God. That IS text!
posted by happyroach at 4:46 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
If you actually consider Punk to be a new development in rock, then there's plenty of room to describe new styles in popular music, consider (insert 10,000 word rant about developments in popular music over the last 30 years that critics who stopped listening in 1986 overlook- oh hello Moderator, Happy New,Year!)
Anyway, my wrong predictions:
Covid won't be that much of a problem. Granted, this was back in oh, end of January? I reversed that in about two weeks. But still, I was way off.
OK, but surely we'll have it under control enough to open campus for Fall semester. AHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!! *sobs*
No. No way. I'm just too used to creators inserting fanservice, and frenzied fan slashing. No way is Noelle Stevenson going to able to take the Adora/Cara subtext and make it text.
Oh. My. God. That IS text!
posted by happyroach at 4:46 PM on December 30, 2020 [3 favorites]
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