Aftermath of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War

February 19, 2021 2:49 PM

Azeris Wrestle Over Return to Abandoned Towns, Decades After First Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict With Armenia [WSJ] (non paywall)
Actually returning won’t be easy. Mr. Pashayev says he knows his $135-a-month in disability payments and pension paid to displaced people won’t be enough to reclaim the life he lost in Agdam three decades ago, when he was still a child.

Nagorno-Karabakh refugees see little chance of returning home after peace deal [Politico]
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities estimated 90,000 of 150,000 inhabitants fled. Many made their way to the Armenian capital, Yerevan, sheltering in hotels, schools and apartments of private citizens. The government is struggling to find accommodation for the rest.

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal [BBC]
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly painful both for me and both for our people".

How Did Armenia So Badly Miscalculate Its War with Azerbaijan? [National Interest]
The long-term damage resulting from Armenia's miscalculations outlined are plain to see. While part of the damage is physical, even more significant is the mental damage: Armenia’s feeling of military superiority is now broken, and its feeling of isolation palpable.

posted by riruro (4 comments total)

I have some Armenian friends and it's hard to explain how serious and abrupt this little war was. Also a remarkable demonstration of Trump's foreign policy irrelevance, the US was basically not involved.

As the second article says, the mess goes back a lot longer than just now:

Azerbaijanis know the pain of displacement: During the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in the 1990s, hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were driven from their homes by Armenian forces in and around the contested territory. Many of them now hope to return to the areas that Azerbaijan has retaken.

I don't think anyone is hopeful for some sort of peaceful coexistence.
posted by Nelson at 3:09 PM on February 19, 2021

From that last link:

As recent events have made clear, as long as the fighting remains centered on internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory, there is little that western or other powers will do aside from issuing habitual calls for restraint and negotiations.

I think that's as good an explanation as any as to why the US didn't get more heavily involved besides attempting to broker a ceasefire.
posted by Fukiyama at 7:24 PM on February 19, 2021 [1 favorite]

This is a terrible clusterfuck all around. Just look at the map, there is no question that this tragedy will be compounded now. So Nagorno-Karabakh goes back to being an exclave, with many bits of it handed over to the Azeris. Who will totally respect and Christian Armenians who want to remain, I am sure. And life will be stable and prosperous in Stepankert, thanks to the Russian peacekeepers.

Oi, oi, oi.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:01 PM on February 19, 2021 [1 favorite]

The " internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory "is a joke, it stems from a Stalinist mistake, there are 1000 years old Armenian monasteries in Nagorno-Karabakh which is why the Armenians won’t ever let go of these territories. What happened in 2020 is another episode of a conflict that is still not resolved and will probably erupt into war all over again within the next decade. I think Russia is the only player that can arbiter this situation, in 2020 they needed to make it clear to Armenia that it better stay a "Russia friendly " country rather that look toward the west, so it didn’t move. When Armenia is ruled by pro-Russian nationalists there will probably be another attempt to get these territories back. And on and on and on...
posted by SageLeVoid at 12:26 AM on February 20, 2021 [4 favorites]