Is Your Vaccine Card Selfie a Gift for Scammers?
February 26, 2021 5:32 PM Subscribe
You finally got your vaccine, and you’re excited to share the proof. Here’s why that may not be a good idea. "Someone who is not yet vaccinated or does not want to be could be “tempted to forge a copy from these photographs,” she said. “Or why wouldn’t an entrepreneurial scammer use the photographs to create counterfeits to sell to those who want them?” The Better Business Bureau, in its warning, cited newspaper reports in Britain that said that fake vaccination cards were purchased on eBay for about $6.
This seems like an odd moral panic. Scammers don’t need more pictures to know what these cards look like. Name and Birthday are also already commonly shared on social media. Beyond the request not to share, I’m not seeing the compelling case of why it’s a problem from this article, particularly if, like the friends I’ve seen, you post with a finger over the personal information.
posted by meinvt at 5:46 PM on February 26, 2021 [54 favorites]
posted by meinvt at 5:46 PM on February 26, 2021 [54 favorites]
Seriously. Am more likely to forge documents to GET the vaccine.
(I wouldn't though)
posted by Horkus at 5:50 PM on February 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
(I wouldn't though)
posted by Horkus at 5:50 PM on February 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
Why the hell would I want the card without the actual vaccination???
Because proof may eventually be required for certain jobs or for your children to attend school and what are anti-vaxers going to do then?
[OMG: might this actually be a useful application of a block-chain ledger besides cryptocurrency?]
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:59 PM on February 26, 2021 [18 favorites]
Because proof may eventually be required for certain jobs or for your children to attend school and what are anti-vaxers going to do then?
[OMG: might this actually be a useful application of a block-chain ledger besides cryptocurrency?]
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:59 PM on February 26, 2021 [18 favorites]
Why the hell would I want the card without the actual vaccination???
So you could travel to countries requiring it.
posted by mhoye at 5:59 PM on February 26, 2021 [16 favorites]
So you could travel to countries requiring it.
posted by mhoye at 5:59 PM on February 26, 2021 [16 favorites]
My vaccine card was... a card. With some scribbling on it. Anyone could draw one up in Photoshop and print it out on cardstock in a matter of minutes.
I'm not sure how it's supposed to work as proof of anything.
posted by bondcliff at 6:01 PM on February 26, 2021 [34 favorites]
I'm not sure how it's supposed to work as proof of anything.
posted by bondcliff at 6:01 PM on February 26, 2021 [34 favorites]
Like many 30-something millennials, my friend group is made up of a lot of medicine and lab adjacent folks and a lot of teachers and a few of us sinners (handymen/tradefolks). The class structure and the cavalierness is real and came out quick. Oh, y'all just came back from your frisbee golf outing? Do you mind still wearing your masks? I know you got the vaccine. I still have to assemble furniture for old folks and my girlfriend is a teacher. You're in a medical field; you should know what you're doing isn't considered safe for those around you.
posted by es_de_bah at 6:04 PM on February 26, 2021 [29 favorites]
posted by es_de_bah at 6:04 PM on February 26, 2021 [29 favorites]
Yeah in the UK the cards aren't intended as proof. They're a reminder for your next appointment and an easy way to check which vaccine you had in the unlikely event of a reaction or for when you need your second dose.
This for example. Which actually includes images of both sides of the card.
posted by edd at 6:11 PM on February 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
This for example. Which actually includes images of both sides of the card.
posted by edd at 6:11 PM on February 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
Yeah, there are already high-res images of the blank card posted all over online and, as another poster noted, you can basically just fill it in with some scribbles to make it look "official" if you're trying to forge one. But:
Beyond the request not to share, I’m not seeing the compelling case of why it’s a problem from this article, particularly if, like the friends I’ve seen, you post with a finger over the personal information.
In my understanding, this is the real issue. Exposing that personal info puts you at risk of identity theft separate and distinct from any vaccine info, which might not be intuitive to some people who post them on social media. Also some providers use social security numbers as the medical record number, which is a horrible practice, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So yeah, if you're posting to Instagram, cover up your personal info, and show your friends the full Monty when you get together in person!
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 6:17 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Beyond the request not to share, I’m not seeing the compelling case of why it’s a problem from this article, particularly if, like the friends I’ve seen, you post with a finger over the personal information.
In my understanding, this is the real issue. Exposing that personal info puts you at risk of identity theft separate and distinct from any vaccine info, which might not be intuitive to some people who post them on social media. Also some providers use social security numbers as the medical record number, which is a horrible practice, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So yeah, if you're posting to Instagram, cover up your personal info, and show your friends the full Monty when you get together in person!
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 6:17 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
[OMG: might this actually be a useful application of a block-chain ledger besides cryptocurrency?]
Blockchains are only useful when you need a transaction record but do not have a trusted central authority. There's pretty much no good reason for a government to use a blockchain because the government is, basically by definition, a trusted central authority. And even if a government database is not trusted, the government can still compel people to use it.
Blockchains also scale horribly. The fastest major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, takes ~14 seconds per transaction, and each block only stores a few tens of kilobytes. Even assuming each block is efficiently utilized and stores several vaccination records at once, processing the ~660 million transactions it would take to record every eventual US vaccination would take decades.
I have yet to see a single production use case for blockchain that is energy efficient, sufficiently scalable, and could not be accomplished with traditional technologies.
posted by jedicus at 6:31 PM on February 26, 2021 [72 favorites]
Blockchains are only useful when you need a transaction record but do not have a trusted central authority. There's pretty much no good reason for a government to use a blockchain because the government is, basically by definition, a trusted central authority. And even if a government database is not trusted, the government can still compel people to use it.
Blockchains also scale horribly. The fastest major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, takes ~14 seconds per transaction, and each block only stores a few tens of kilobytes. Even assuming each block is efficiently utilized and stores several vaccination records at once, processing the ~660 million transactions it would take to record every eventual US vaccination would take decades.
I have yet to see a single production use case for blockchain that is energy efficient, sufficiently scalable, and could not be accomplished with traditional technologies.
posted by jedicus at 6:31 PM on February 26, 2021 [72 favorites]
[OMG: might this actually be a useful application of a block-chain ledger besides cryptocurrency?]
People do keep trying to apply blockchain to verifying real-life events but it's more or less impossible. Anyone can store anything onto a standard blockchain, and the blockchain remembers it and makes sure it isn't overwritten or changed later.
But since anyone can store anything, how do you connect stuff that happens "out here" with stuff that happens on the blockchain? You end up having to introduce a trusted central authority who can decide who is allowed to store information on the blockchain, but then you could just use that central authority and skip all the blockchain stuff.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:44 PM on February 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
People do keep trying to apply blockchain to verifying real-life events but it's more or less impossible. Anyone can store anything onto a standard blockchain, and the blockchain remembers it and makes sure it isn't overwritten or changed later.
But since anyone can store anything, how do you connect stuff that happens "out here" with stuff that happens on the blockchain? You end up having to introduce a trusted central authority who can decide who is allowed to store information on the blockchain, but then you could just use that central authority and skip all the blockchain stuff.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:44 PM on February 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
Well, then let's hope the 'central authorities' come up with something a little harder to fake than a paper ID card because humans will game this system and the consequence of that is the prolongation of the pandemic.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 7:09 PM on February 26, 2021
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 7:09 PM on February 26, 2021
I was planning on just showing everyone the lollipop the nurse gave me for being a brave boy.
posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 7:41 PM on February 26, 2021 [38 favorites]
posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 7:41 PM on February 26, 2021 [38 favorites]
The card is supposed to get a sticker with the manufacturer and lot number of the vaccine you got. I suppose that someone could hypothetically use that to quiz you about where you got the vaccine and check to see if your answer matched where that lot was sent. In practice I can't imagine anyone is going to do that.
In terms of identity theft, I get the concern if there's a medical record number on the card. But mine doesn't have that. Just my name and birthdate, which are trivially available to anyone who looks for them. I have a tough time seeing how posting a photo of this card would put me at any real risk of identity theft.
posted by tom_r at 7:55 PM on February 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
In terms of identity theft, I get the concern if there's a medical record number on the card. But mine doesn't have that. Just my name and birthdate, which are trivially available to anyone who looks for them. I have a tough time seeing how posting a photo of this card would put me at any real risk of identity theft.
posted by tom_r at 7:55 PM on February 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think IATA is putting together a digital passport for travel so I don't think that faking a vaccination card would do anything for international travel. The article does mention that a scammer can leverage their knowledge of the lot numbers to get more information from their victim by pretending to be doing a quality assurance follow up. That the only way I see that the information on a vaccination card could benefit a scammer.
posted by rdr at 8:15 PM on February 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by rdr at 8:15 PM on February 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
That vaccination card better not be required as proof for anything because they didn’t tell me to keep it and I have absolutely no clue where it is now. Theoretically in my apartment somewhere but it’s perfectly possible my cat has destroyed it.
posted by brook horse at 8:24 PM on February 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 8:24 PM on February 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
I am (morbidly) curious what happens when someone travels to another country with their fake vaccine card, transmits the disease and the authorities trace it down to that person. Seems like it would have happened before, but maybe since this is the first pandemic where all the surveillance infrastructure is in place it may be the first?
posted by meowzilla at 8:51 PM on February 26, 2021
posted by meowzilla at 8:51 PM on February 26, 2021
bondcliff: "My vaccine card was... a card. With some scribbling on it. Anyone could draw one up in Photoshop and print it out on cardstock in a matter of minutes.
I'm not sure how it's supposed to work as proof of anything."
I figured it was more of a reminder and that the real proof is in whatever database the pharmacy/state uses. I remember being asked to give permission to be recorded in some official state registry.
More concerningly, I got my first dose at a Walmart pharmacy a couple weeks ago, and they never actually scheduled a second appointment, just gave me a reminder card. I've been looking at their online scheduler every day (same one I used for the first dose) -- it only lets you schedule one week out, and there have been zero slots available every time I've checked it since. :/
posted by Rhaomi at 9:32 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure how it's supposed to work as proof of anything."
I figured it was more of a reminder and that the real proof is in whatever database the pharmacy/state uses. I remember being asked to give permission to be recorded in some official state registry.
More concerningly, I got my first dose at a Walmart pharmacy a couple weeks ago, and they never actually scheduled a second appointment, just gave me a reminder card. I've been looking at their online scheduler every day (same one I used for the first dose) -- it only lets you schedule one week out, and there have been zero slots available every time I've checked it since. :/
posted by Rhaomi at 9:32 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Christ. We don't care if a few people cheat. We don't care if a few thousand people cheat. Hell, we shouldn't care if a million US citizens forge an vax card.
Sure, on an individual level those are horrible people but a couple tenths of a percent of the nation with fake card is not a public health problem.
There are so many real depressing problems with the virus. But the vaccine is a success story and I don't get the urge to put the worst possible spin on it.
posted by mark k at 9:41 PM on February 26, 2021 [11 favorites]
Sure, on an individual level those are horrible people but a couple tenths of a percent of the nation with fake card is not a public health problem.
There are so many real depressing problems with the virus. But the vaccine is a success story and I don't get the urge to put the worst possible spin on it.
posted by mark k at 9:41 PM on February 26, 2021 [11 favorites]
Yep, this is dumb. I helped a local site get the people in line started with their paperwork, and the card was 99% to check that people were showing up on the right day for the second dose of their particular vaccine. It wasn't the only thing to verify their identity and right to be there; if it were, everyone in town would have had one within a week.
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:45 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:45 PM on February 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Sure, on an individual level those are horrible people but a couple tenths of a percent of the nation with fake card is not a public health problem.
No, but it might be a personal health problem if you're vulnerable to covid and can't have the vaccine yourself, or have loved ones for whom this is true. Then this is absolutely not "roll your eyes and move on" territory, it is very much potentially a life-and-death thing.
posted by Dysk at 10:13 PM on February 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
No, but it might be a personal health problem if you're vulnerable to covid and can't have the vaccine yourself, or have loved ones for whom this is true. Then this is absolutely not "roll your eyes and move on" territory, it is very much potentially a life-and-death thing.
posted by Dysk at 10:13 PM on February 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
Whatta supposed to do with this, wave it at the bus station like Jim Rockford?
my doctor's has a barcode.
posted by clavdivs at 10:22 PM on February 26, 2021
my doctor's has a barcode.
posted by clavdivs at 10:22 PM on February 26, 2021
No, but it might be a personal health problem if you're vulnerable to covid and can't have the vaccine yourself, or have loved ones for whom this is true. Then this is absolutely not "roll your eyes and move on" territory, it is very much potentially a life-and-death thing.
If you are in that situation, it's not like everyone else you meet is going to be vaccinated anyway or, for that matter, that you're going to be checking the cards of total strangers. In practical terms we're talking (best case) about the difference between 85% and 84.7% of the people being vaccinated--except not even that, it's about whether the unvaccinated have an ID? The main use of an ID is to make make it more likely that if, say, an open floor plan office opens up you're employees are at a herd immunity level and won't get a cluster of cases.
Obviously. there's an exception for cases like "I want to work as in a clinic with immunocompromised individuals" but in general this will have zero impact, unless the vaccination is a total failure for other reasons.
posted by mark k at 11:35 PM on February 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
If you are in that situation, it's not like everyone else you meet is going to be vaccinated anyway or, for that matter, that you're going to be checking the cards of total strangers. In practical terms we're talking (best case) about the difference between 85% and 84.7% of the people being vaccinated--except not even that, it's about whether the unvaccinated have an ID? The main use of an ID is to make make it more likely that if, say, an open floor plan office opens up you're employees are at a herd immunity level and won't get a cluster of cases.
Obviously. there's an exception for cases like "I want to work as in a clinic with immunocompromised individuals" but in general this will have zero impact, unless the vaccination is a total failure for other reasons.
posted by mark k at 11:35 PM on February 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
I was planning on just showing everyone the lollipop the nurse gave me for being a brave boy. L.P. Hatecraft
I got a sticker saying "I've had my Covid vaccination". I would post a photo of it but someone might use it to steal my identity.
posted by StephenB at 1:31 AM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
I got a sticker saying "I've had my Covid vaccination". I would post a photo of it but someone might use it to steal my identity.
posted by StephenB at 1:31 AM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
Why the hell would I want the card without the actual vaccination???
There is talk in Germany of a "digital vaccination passport", and allowing gyms, restaurants, larger events to open only to those vaccinated (and people who are actually exempt from the vaccine). I could see people trying to claim that they definitely were vaccinated, they've just forgotten their proper card but "oh wait, here's the paper one, won't that do?"
It's not clear whether this will actually happen, as it is a form of discrimination. I'm in two minds myself, on the one hand, it would mean better protection for a lot of workers, and possibly allow restaurants etc. to open earlier than otherwise. On the other hand if they start this fairly soon, it would feel a bit like they're penalising people who haven't even been given the option to have a vaccine, rather than just those who refused it.
posted by scorbet at 4:14 AM on February 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
There is talk in Germany of a "digital vaccination passport", and allowing gyms, restaurants, larger events to open only to those vaccinated (and people who are actually exempt from the vaccine). I could see people trying to claim that they definitely were vaccinated, they've just forgotten their proper card but "oh wait, here's the paper one, won't that do?"
It's not clear whether this will actually happen, as it is a form of discrimination. I'm in two minds myself, on the one hand, it would mean better protection for a lot of workers, and possibly allow restaurants etc. to open earlier than otherwise. On the other hand if they start this fairly soon, it would feel a bit like they're penalising people who haven't even been given the option to have a vaccine, rather than just those who refused it.
posted by scorbet at 4:14 AM on February 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
I dug out my yellow WHO vaccination booklet. It’s in tatters, held together by tape and last used to get a cholera vaccination in Singapore back in the 90s but I’m going to bring it whenever the holy grail appointment materializes. Because for sure you will need proof for international travel and so far that’s all I’ve got.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:35 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:35 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
I am volunteering at a vaccination centre in London, and we give out hundreds of these little cards every day when people get their first jabs. Usually we don't have time to write anything other than the vaccine name, batch number, and date on them, but I do write the patient's name at the top if I can. I am surprised that the US is putting all that sensitive information like DOB on the card.
There are always piles of blank or partially filled-in cards sitting around because we frequently change from Pfizer to AstraZeneca or between different batch numbers during a shift. We shred them at the end of the day to avoid confusion and also to stop people picking them up. I tell people all day long that the cards are not equivalent to a "Covid passport," and that it's unlikely they can use them as proof for employers or for getting into a pub.
In theory, someone could take one of these cards and walk around with it to show off that they'd been jabbed. But that means absolutely nothing, because every patient is entered in the NHS database right there and then. We can see whether someone has already had the first dose of the vaccine. We take name, date of birth, and postcode, and confirm all of these verbally with the patient, but we don't ask for photo ID, so in theory someone could pretend to be another person -- but they will get flagged in the system as already having had the jab.
posted by Orkney Vole at 6:05 AM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
There are always piles of blank or partially filled-in cards sitting around because we frequently change from Pfizer to AstraZeneca or between different batch numbers during a shift. We shred them at the end of the day to avoid confusion and also to stop people picking them up. I tell people all day long that the cards are not equivalent to a "Covid passport," and that it's unlikely they can use them as proof for employers or for getting into a pub.
In theory, someone could take one of these cards and walk around with it to show off that they'd been jabbed. But that means absolutely nothing, because every patient is entered in the NHS database right there and then. We can see whether someone has already had the first dose of the vaccine. We take name, date of birth, and postcode, and confirm all of these verbally with the patient, but we don't ask for photo ID, so in theory someone could pretend to be another person -- but they will get flagged in the system as already having had the jab.
posted by Orkney Vole at 6:05 AM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
If you are in that situation, it's not like everyone else you meet is going to be vaccinated anyway or, for that matter, that you're going to be checking the cards of total strangers.
Not personally, but vaccination passports are absolutely a thing that is being discussed and in a few cases implemented around the world.
posted by Dysk at 6:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Not personally, but vaccination passports are absolutely a thing that is being discussed and in a few cases implemented around the world.
posted by Dysk at 6:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
A real question is... what are the cards really for, and how would people misrepresent them?
Seems the cards are just information for the patient to know which vaccine and what batch they got, for their own records, so if they have a reaction or needs tracking (the providers already have that info) they have peace of mind.
It doesn't "prove" anything in itself without being authenticated and verified. And if it has a name and a birthday on it, it's not something you'd want to share anyway. People who REALLY need to know would not take the card at "face value", but verify it through some other means (if legally permitted).
And people who don't need to know, wouldn't trust them.
Back in 2020, in the US, some folks were carrying supposedly "mask exemption cards" that implied trying to make the person wear a mask somehow violates American law (specific, American Disabilities Act). However, it is completely bogus and issued by a bogus "Freedom to Breath Agency" that pretended to be official by including a US Department of Justice logo and phone number.
For abusers to abuse these cards, and misrepresent what these cards are, requires the "recipient" (the audience, being abused) accept the bull**** the abusers are spewing.
As Hemming way said long time ago, albeit paraphrased, calibrate your bull**** detector every once in a while.
posted by kschang at 6:39 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Seems the cards are just information for the patient to know which vaccine and what batch they got, for their own records, so if they have a reaction or needs tracking (the providers already have that info) they have peace of mind.
It doesn't "prove" anything in itself without being authenticated and verified. And if it has a name and a birthday on it, it's not something you'd want to share anyway. People who REALLY need to know would not take the card at "face value", but verify it through some other means (if legally permitted).
And people who don't need to know, wouldn't trust them.
Back in 2020, in the US, some folks were carrying supposedly "mask exemption cards" that implied trying to make the person wear a mask somehow violates American law (specific, American Disabilities Act). However, it is completely bogus and issued by a bogus "Freedom to Breath Agency" that pretended to be official by including a US Department of Justice logo and phone number.
For abusers to abuse these cards, and misrepresent what these cards are, requires the "recipient" (the audience, being abused) accept the bull**** the abusers are spewing.
As Hemming way said long time ago, albeit paraphrased, calibrate your bull**** detector every once in a while.
posted by kschang at 6:39 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
The Better Business Bureau, in its warning, cited newspaper reports in Britain that said that fake vaccination cards were purchased on eBay for about $6.
The British 'vaccination card', as many others have already pointed out on this thread, is an appointment card, nothing more.
The 'newspaper' quoted is The Sun, which I wouldn't use to wipe up after a dog.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 7:13 AM on February 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
The British 'vaccination card', as many others have already pointed out on this thread, is an appointment card, nothing more.
The 'newspaper' quoted is The Sun, which I wouldn't use to wipe up after a dog.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 7:13 AM on February 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
This is the next iteration of "don't post pictures of kids online because pedophiles will come find them," "don't post pictures of your vacation on Instagram because burglars will come to your house," and "don't share memes because they're designed to collect answers to your security questions."
All are related to real risks, and probably started with people coming from a good place. But the online discourse becomes so divorced from the actual risk that it ends up being somewhere between pointless and actively counterproductive.
In this case, I personally believe that the societal good of normalizing excitement over being vaccinated is a lot more important than eliminating the risk of someone knowing what the card looks like and trying to forge it.
posted by primethyme at 7:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [24 favorites]
All are related to real risks, and probably started with people coming from a good place. But the online discourse becomes so divorced from the actual risk that it ends up being somewhere between pointless and actively counterproductive.
In this case, I personally believe that the societal good of normalizing excitement over being vaccinated is a lot more important than eliminating the risk of someone knowing what the card looks like and trying to forge it.
posted by primethyme at 7:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [24 favorites]
My vaccine card was... a card. With some scribbling on it. Anyone could draw one up in Photoshop and print it out on cardstock in a matter of minutes.
For comparison, I have the "carte jaune", the "International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis as approved by The World Health Organization", with a CDC logo at the bottom. I've shown it at border crossings maybe three or four times as proof of yellow fever vaccination. Anyone with medium weight yellow cardstock could probably print one off for themselves, if they were motivated.
It does list the manufacturer and lot of the vaccine along with the date I was vaccinated, in ballpoint pen. If someone wanted to take the time to do investigative work, they might be able to trace the info to see if it's legit, but at the time I present it, there's no ironclad proof beyond "here's this yellow piece of paper".
posted by gimonca at 7:25 AM on February 27, 2021
For comparison, I have the "carte jaune", the "International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis as approved by The World Health Organization", with a CDC logo at the bottom. I've shown it at border crossings maybe three or four times as proof of yellow fever vaccination. Anyone with medium weight yellow cardstock could probably print one off for themselves, if they were motivated.
It does list the manufacturer and lot of the vaccine along with the date I was vaccinated, in ballpoint pen. If someone wanted to take the time to do investigative work, they might be able to trace the info to see if it's legit, but at the time I present it, there's no ironclad proof beyond "here's this yellow piece of paper".
posted by gimonca at 7:25 AM on February 27, 2021
Am I the only one who finds taking photos of a vaccination document and posting it on Facebook strangely weird and kind of lame? Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:31 AM on February 27, 2021
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:31 AM on February 27, 2021
Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
No. It's a some double digit percentage of the population is hesitant or actively anti-vax, and it's in all of our best interests to have as many people vaccinated as possible, so let's use some peer pressure and positive reinforcement to show them it's ok, type of situation.
Why do people assume the worst of others' social media posts? That's what I find weird...
posted by primethyme at 7:38 AM on February 27, 2021 [28 favorites]
No. It's a some double digit percentage of the population is hesitant or actively anti-vax, and it's in all of our best interests to have as many people vaccinated as possible, so let's use some peer pressure and positive reinforcement to show them it's ok, type of situation.
Why do people assume the worst of others' social media posts? That's what I find weird...
posted by primethyme at 7:38 AM on February 27, 2021 [28 favorites]
Objectively, it is weird and kind of lame. But, I've had any number of vaccinations and somehow this one is different. Not sure why.
posted by StephenB at 7:40 AM on February 27, 2021
posted by StephenB at 7:40 AM on February 27, 2021
Why do people assume the worst of others' social media posts? That's what I find weird...
Nothing about the vaccination posts I've seen have had an ounce of activism or public service associated with it: no info-sharing on how to obtain a vaccine, no links, no discussion of side effects or any of that to encourage people. Just "I got it." One can have validation motivations with a side effect of peer-pressure, that doesn't mean it's an inherently selfless act. And I don't think discussing it and questioning human behavior in and of itself out of curiosity is assuming the worst. But we may have different ideas of what open-dialogue entails.
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:53 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Nothing about the vaccination posts I've seen have had an ounce of activism or public service associated with it: no info-sharing on how to obtain a vaccine, no links, no discussion of side effects or any of that to encourage people. Just "I got it." One can have validation motivations with a side effect of peer-pressure, that doesn't mean it's an inherently selfless act. And I don't think discussing it and questioning human behavior in and of itself out of curiosity is assuming the worst. But we may have different ideas of what open-dialogue entails.
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:53 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Am I the only one who finds taking photos of a vaccination document and posting it on Facebook strangely weird and kind of lame? Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
I'm not big on social media but the march to vaccination is like a countdown until I can get my first hug in a year. (And I'm not even a big hugger, either, but c'mon.) So we talk about this on zoom calls. I know the relatives who've had one, hell, I know which friend's relatives had one. People care about this. It will literally change our lives.
This is nothing like a booster shot. It's insane to compare the two.
posted by mark k at 7:54 AM on February 27, 2021 [32 favorites]
I'm not big on social media but the march to vaccination is like a countdown until I can get my first hug in a year. (And I'm not even a big hugger, either, but c'mon.) So we talk about this on zoom calls. I know the relatives who've had one, hell, I know which friend's relatives had one. People care about this. It will literally change our lives.
This is nothing like a booster shot. It's insane to compare the two.
posted by mark k at 7:54 AM on February 27, 2021 [32 favorites]
So yesterday I had to look into crossing the border into Canada for a terrible family emergency. They do not give a shit if you have vaccinations and their procedures now give off strong vibes that they fully expect attempts at fraud for the testing requirements and require you pass two tests before exiting the mandatory 2 week quarantine that are fully under the Canadian government's control. By air there is mandatory stay in a designated quarantine hotel for three days and passing the two tests.
They clearly do not trust pieces of paper from the U.S. at all anymore. Nor should they.
posted by srboisvert at 7:55 AM on February 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
They clearly do not trust pieces of paper from the U.S. at all anymore. Nor should they.
posted by srboisvert at 7:55 AM on February 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
This is nothing like a booster shot. It's insane to compare the two.
Maybe not in the current context, which feels dire because we're living in it, but historically it is along the same lines as the flu shot, which came from the 1918 flu pandemic. And no I'm not comparing COVID-19 to the flu that we've essentially had under control for a century.
I'm not undermining the vaccine or people who are receiving it. I asked a genuine question about motivations to sharing it on social media in order to discuss it on multiple levels.
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:58 AM on February 27, 2021
Maybe not in the current context, which feels dire because we're living in it, but historically it is along the same lines as the flu shot, which came from the 1918 flu pandemic. And no I'm not comparing COVID-19 to the flu that we've essentially had under control for a century.
I'm not undermining the vaccine or people who are receiving it. I asked a genuine question about motivations to sharing it on social media in order to discuss it on multiple levels.
posted by Young Kullervo at 7:58 AM on February 27, 2021
Doesn't "the current context, which feels dire because we're living in it" basically answer the question, though?
posted by augustimagination at 8:01 AM on February 27, 2021 [17 favorites]
posted by augustimagination at 8:01 AM on February 27, 2021 [17 favorites]
My vaccination card was worth $100 extra on my paycheck when uploaded to the wellness app at work. That's plenty of incentive.
posted by Grumpy old geek at 8:02 AM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by Grumpy old geek at 8:02 AM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
Date of birth and address are often used as identifiers, even by banks, sharing them is unwise. There are plenty of dopes who will scheme to avoid the vax, but still be allowed to travel to, say, Hawaii, and will take perverse pleasure in 'sticking it to the Man' by faking vaccination. Not sure Hawaii accepts a card, but, schemers gonna scheme. Covid has been, among other things, a big Intelligence Test and Civility Test. It's Civil to get vaccines, wear a mask, distance, stay home, so that you don't spread disease. It's Selfish and Uncivil to benefit from herd immunity when you can get a vax without significant health risk. Sorting Hat, if you will.
posted by theora55 at 8:05 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by theora55 at 8:05 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine.
I always post when I get my flu shot on Facebook because I want it to be normalized and it might help remind people. I'll also announce when I get my vaccinations for the same reason.
I also regularly post running updates and have for about a decade and over that decade several of my friends have taken up running and also sometimes post their runs. None of us were athletic types when we met.
I know the cool kids like to be all jaded about stuff like this but you really shouldn't underestimate your ability to be a positive example and subtly influence your peers. I lost weight effectively (50lbs) back in the day because Mathowie posted his success with the hacker diet. He doesn't really know me....but a small ripple from his public behavior moved me in a good direction. If he hadn't posted his efforts would I have made mine?
I am happy to be a lame uncool positive example. When I was trying to be cool I was just a dead inside joyless zombie and an unpleasant asshole for anyone to be around.
posted by srboisvert at 8:08 AM on February 27, 2021 [29 favorites]
I always post when I get my flu shot on Facebook because I want it to be normalized and it might help remind people. I'll also announce when I get my vaccinations for the same reason.
I also regularly post running updates and have for about a decade and over that decade several of my friends have taken up running and also sometimes post their runs. None of us were athletic types when we met.
I know the cool kids like to be all jaded about stuff like this but you really shouldn't underestimate your ability to be a positive example and subtly influence your peers. I lost weight effectively (50lbs) back in the day because Mathowie posted his success with the hacker diet. He doesn't really know me....but a small ripple from his public behavior moved me in a good direction. If he hadn't posted his efforts would I have made mine?
I am happy to be a lame uncool positive example. When I was trying to be cool I was just a dead inside joyless zombie and an unpleasant asshole for anyone to be around.
posted by srboisvert at 8:08 AM on February 27, 2021 [29 favorites]
There is talk in Germany of a "digital vaccination passport", and allowing gyms, restaurants, larger events to open only to those vaccinated (and people who are actually exempt from the vaccine). [...]It's not clear whether this will actually happen, as it is a form of discrimination.
There are places where this will fly no problem. Here in Canada I had to prove my child was vaccinated before she was allowed to enroll in day-care (privately funded [sort of]) and elementary school (provincially funded). No Vaccination or doctor's letter? GTFO.
Because she had her shots initially in a different province than she enrolled in school her vaccination schedule didn't match her school's province schedule. And the easiest way to resolve this was just to get her vaccinated again so that's what we did.
My spouse works in a healthcare field though not with patients and had to get (and pay for out of pocket no less) several vaccines like shingles and hepatitis as a condition of employment.
I have no doubt that the work camp jobs that comprise the bulk of my employment will absosmurfly require documentation of vaccination before allowing one into camp once we get to the "anyone who wants one can walk up and get vaccinated" stage of availability. If the Feds aren't blowing smoke up our ass that'll be no later than January 1st, 2022.
Am I the only one who finds taking photos of a vaccination document and posting it on Facebook strangely weird and kind of lame? Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
I can tell you that Flu shots are definitely social media post worthy for a large percentage of users. Any unusual (where unusual is happens less than every few months) event/activity is.
posted by Mitheral at 8:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
There are places where this will fly no problem. Here in Canada I had to prove my child was vaccinated before she was allowed to enroll in day-care (privately funded [sort of]) and elementary school (provincially funded). No Vaccination or doctor's letter? GTFO.
Because she had her shots initially in a different province than she enrolled in school her vaccination schedule didn't match her school's province schedule. And the easiest way to resolve this was just to get her vaccinated again so that's what we did.
My spouse works in a healthcare field though not with patients and had to get (and pay for out of pocket no less) several vaccines like shingles and hepatitis as a condition of employment.
I have no doubt that the work camp jobs that comprise the bulk of my employment will absosmurfly require documentation of vaccination before allowing one into camp once we get to the "anyone who wants one can walk up and get vaccinated" stage of availability. If the Feds aren't blowing smoke up our ass that'll be no later than January 1st, 2022.
Am I the only one who finds taking photos of a vaccination document and posting it on Facebook strangely weird and kind of lame? Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
I can tell you that Flu shots are definitely social media post worthy for a large percentage of users. Any unusual (where unusual is happens less than every few months) event/activity is.
posted by Mitheral at 8:16 AM on February 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
In the U.S., the CDC requires each state to maintain an Immunization Information System. This is a database of every vaccination given to every resident of the state. You can go to your doctor or neighborhood pharmacy and they should be able to print out a history from the state database of every vaccination you have had since record keeping began, about 15 to 20 years ago, depending on the state.
This is a state run program. Some states are better than others about compliance and completeness. There is no national database accessible across states.
posted by JackFlash at 8:17 AM on February 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
This is a state run program. Some states are better than others about compliance and completeness. There is no national database accessible across states.
posted by JackFlash at 8:17 AM on February 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
I didn't post my card because it's not that exciting.
Complaining about how I didn't get a sticker or a lollipop? That's where it's at.
had to buy my own lollipops what kind of nationalised healthcare is this...
posted by Katemonkey at 8:27 AM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
Complaining about how I didn't get a sticker or a lollipop? That's where it's at.
had to buy my own lollipops what kind of nationalised healthcare is this...
posted by Katemonkey at 8:27 AM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
I post a lot less on Facebook than I used to, but the annual flu shot post is definitely one. Not everyone gets a flu shot every year, and I'll continue to promote my support of it until they do.
posted by meinvt at 8:35 AM on February 27, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by meinvt at 8:35 AM on February 27, 2021 [10 favorites]
You can get the NHS app, note: not the test and trace one, connect it to your GP surgery and have all your medical info on there. It'll show your vaccination as and when you get it.
posted by knapah at 9:53 AM on February 27, 2021
posted by knapah at 9:53 AM on February 27, 2021
Am I the only one who finds taking photos of a vaccination document and posting it on Facebook strangely weird and kind of lame?
I *thrill* to see my connections get vaccinated against this (hopefully) once in a lifetime horror. It's like watching everyone's first steps back to whatever normal will be.
posted by kimberussell at 10:18 AM on February 27, 2021 [19 favorites]
I *thrill* to see my connections get vaccinated against this (hopefully) once in a lifetime horror. It's like watching everyone's first steps back to whatever normal will be.
posted by kimberussell at 10:18 AM on February 27, 2021 [19 favorites]
I'd rather see photos of vaccine cards than people's dinners or the ubiquitous "Madison's first/last day of [X] grade" photos or the occasional "I got together with fifteen of my besties for drinks downtown, don't worry our masks are on our wrists like corsages!!!" that one of my friends keeps posting.
posted by basalganglia at 1:45 PM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by basalganglia at 1:45 PM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
I have a "Thanks, science!" vaccination pin and I wear it everywhere now. I determine what is cool and I deem it to be cool.
posted by praemunire at 2:03 PM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 2:03 PM on February 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
I love “I did the thing!” stickers so I was very disappointed to find there were no stickers for our vaccines.
But, you know... it still counts.
I posted my card selfie before I filled out my personal info so I guess I’m in the clear? I really did feel like I HAD to post one - I just felt so joyful and aglow that day.
posted by obfuscation at 2:19 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
But, you know... it still counts.
I posted my card selfie before I filled out my personal info so I guess I’m in the clear? I really did feel like I HAD to post one - I just felt so joyful and aglow that day.
posted by obfuscation at 2:19 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Reminder prompted by a couple comments above: as embedded in casual English language as it has become over time, "lame" is considered by many to be an ableist slur and is better avoided. Worth taking note and changing the habit.
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:21 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:21 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
Like...no one parades around on social media talking about their booster shots or the flu vaccine. Is it a "FIRST" type of situation?
It’s the beginning of the end of a global pandemic that has killed millions, locked up more, and caused economic ruin for many. Surely it’s okay for people to post a bit of joy.
I think the “identity theft” is mostly a tempest in a teapot here. But an easy story to run.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:52 PM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
It’s the beginning of the end of a global pandemic that has killed millions, locked up more, and caused economic ruin for many. Surely it’s okay for people to post a bit of joy.
I think the “identity theft” is mostly a tempest in a teapot here. But an easy story to run.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:52 PM on February 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
srboisvert: “I had to look into crossing the border into Canada for a terrible family emergency. They do not give a shit if you have vaccinations and their procedures now give off strong vibes that they fully expect attempts at fraud for the testing requirements”
We recently had a guy fly into Toronto’s Pearson airport with forged proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test result. Worse, he’d forged it by altering his positive test result paperwork to try to make it look like a negative. So yeah, folks are a little jumpy.
posted by Secret Sparrow at 9:03 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
We recently had a guy fly into Toronto’s Pearson airport with forged proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test result. Worse, he’d forged it by altering his positive test result paperwork to try to make it look like a negative. So yeah, folks are a little jumpy.
posted by Secret Sparrow at 9:03 PM on February 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
Vaccination doesn't figure into the Canadian border-crossing policy now, but I think it's likely it will in the relatively near future, especially if the data on the radical reduction in transmission after vaccination holds up. There's a fair amount of pressure to reopen the border and using vaccination as a qualification would allow the Canadian government to appear to be following public health recommendations. There's already an online system set up for you to apply in advance for the other exemptions to the border restrictions, so I think adding a means to document your vaccination status would be relatively simple to do. A good reason to hang onto that card.
posted by praemunire at 10:11 PM on February 27, 2021
posted by praemunire at 10:11 PM on February 27, 2021
kimberussell: I *thrill* to see my connections get vaccinated against this (hopefully) once in a lifetime horror.
Same here. It will most likely be months before I can get my shots, so for now, I take joy in knowing that others elsewhere in the world are getting theirs... and each one is making our collective world just a little safer, shot by shot.
I strongly support people celebrating this, and if selfies are their medium of choice, so be it.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:47 AM on February 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
Same here. It will most likely be months before I can get my shots, so for now, I take joy in knowing that others elsewhere in the world are getting theirs... and each one is making our collective world just a little safer, shot by shot.
I strongly support people celebrating this, and if selfies are their medium of choice, so be it.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:47 AM on February 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
yellow WHO vaccination booklet
Came to mention this. I haven't had to carry a Carte Jeune since around 2004, but it already exists and is anecdotally still in pretty frequent circulation among folks I know who e.g. spend more time in the global south, and I've kept track of mine for that reason. It has its own issues, and probably wouldn't be too hard to forge. But this would be the most likely vaccine documentation to require people to carry for international travel. WaPo already discussed it at the end of last year.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:04 AM on February 28, 2021
Came to mention this. I haven't had to carry a Carte Jeune since around 2004, but it already exists and is anecdotally still in pretty frequent circulation among folks I know who e.g. spend more time in the global south, and I've kept track of mine for that reason. It has its own issues, and probably wouldn't be too hard to forge. But this would be the most likely vaccine documentation to require people to carry for international travel. WaPo already discussed it at the end of last year.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:04 AM on February 28, 2021
In terms of not sharing your card on social media, I agree that this seems like a moral panic more than a legit concern at this point. But I'm of the mindset that sharing anything medical or financial on social media should be done with extreme caution. Is a picture of your vax card really going to make racist rural relative or crystal healing Hollywood relative more likely to go ahead and get the vaccine than just the statement that you got it?
posted by aspersioncast at 7:12 AM on February 28, 2021
posted by aspersioncast at 7:12 AM on February 28, 2021
It probably won’t persuade them, but the anti-vaxxers of both strains deserve every possible reminder that the rest of us aren’t buying their nonsense.
posted by armeowda at 8:43 AM on February 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by armeowda at 8:43 AM on February 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
...and since that question I just replied to appears to have changed slightly (no?) while l was replying, I will add that a photo post always seems to get more attention than a text-only. By all means, put your finger over the PHI on the card, obviously.
posted by armeowda at 8:47 AM on February 28, 2021
posted by armeowda at 8:47 AM on February 28, 2021
And for sure, whenever I get the vaccine, I’m going to make a button with a large red V on it (cardboard circle + mod podge + pin backing) and wear it everywhere.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:48 AM on February 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:48 AM on February 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think that a good way to prove you've had your vaccine is if, while you're getting vaccinated, they also inject a tiny microchip into your body, like they do for cats and dogs, and it gets scanned when you enter a public place. It wouldn't need to be anything special, just your personal particulars, probably linked to your Medicare or Tax File or Social Security number, your allegiance to particular groups or institutions, and a very basic Internet of Things sensor to track your movements and report information back to Friend Computer.
posted by turbid dahlia at 1:35 PM on February 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by turbid dahlia at 1:35 PM on February 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
I literally just had a conversation with a retail worker about the advisability of getting the vaccine that was sparked by my pin. I don't know if I was persuasive or not; I did try to be respectful and not pushy. But if that conversation proves to be even a small part of whatever ultimately leads the guy to get vaccinated, I will embrace any imputed uncoolness.
posted by praemunire at 3:50 PM on February 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 3:50 PM on February 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
I think the microchip is a good idea. I have been assuming that we will all have to, I dunno, get tattoos or something or at least literally flash our vaccination cards everywhere we go in the future.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:36 AM on March 1, 2021
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:36 AM on March 1, 2021
they also inject a tiny microchip into your body
This is sarcasm, right? Injecting microchips is literally a Qanon talking point and one of the reasons why a substantial proportion of people are refusing to get the vaccine.
posted by basalganglia at 9:18 AM on March 1, 2021 [2 favorites]
This is sarcasm, right? Injecting microchips is literally a Qanon talking point and one of the reasons why a substantial proportion of people are refusing to get the vaccine.
posted by basalganglia at 9:18 AM on March 1, 2021 [2 favorites]
Injecting microchips is literally a Qanon talking point
I thought the latest theory was time-traveling nano-particles.
yellow WHO vaccination booklet
The EU is planning some sort of digital vaccine passport rather than basing it on the vaccination booklet. It’s not yet clear what it will be like - possibly similar to the Israeli scheme - or what the benefits of it will be either in terms of travel or within a particular country.
posted by scorbet at 1:00 PM on March 1, 2021
I thought the latest theory was time-traveling nano-particles.
yellow WHO vaccination booklet
The EU is planning some sort of digital vaccine passport rather than basing it on the vaccination booklet. It’s not yet clear what it will be like - possibly similar to the Israeli scheme - or what the benefits of it will be either in terms of travel or within a particular country.
posted by scorbet at 1:00 PM on March 1, 2021
Maybe the vaccine could have a very pungent and particular smell. Although, that's just another reason for the cops to tell you to get out of the car. "Smells like nobody in here has been vaccinated."
posted by turbid dahlia at 1:34 PM on March 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by turbid dahlia at 1:34 PM on March 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
In Australia it's going to mandatory to have your COVID vaccination uploaded the the Australian Immunisation Record (already commonly used for kid vaccines), which is linked to a national Medicare number. The people who are keen on the vaccine don't seem to be the people who mind this. Unfortunately a lot of people are not keen on the vaccine, in part because disease rates are (currently) so low. I likely will end up having a video of me getting jabbed on Facebook, if it helps reassure the people I will be jabbing.
posted by quercus23 at 1:51 AM on March 2, 2021
posted by quercus23 at 1:51 AM on March 2, 2021
I don't post life events on social media, am mystified by Tik Tok, have never taken pictures of my food, but when this morning I saw this post it made complete sense to me and made look forward to dancing on a frozen lake too.
posted by mark k at 10:10 AM on March 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by mark k at 10:10 AM on March 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
Folks should keep in mind that vaccination isn't a silver bullet that just switches off the pandemic.
You can look at the statistics in Israel as to what ending the pandemic might look like. Israel has had the highest vaccination rate in the world. They are at about 95% vaccinated right now, at least one dose. Yet infection rates are rising! They still have three times the daily infection rate of the U.S. even with 95% vaccination.
The good news is that death rates in Israel have fallen a lot, but they are now stuck at a stubborn plateau. Even at high vaccination rates, the disease still persists, perhaps because people are letting down their masking and social distancing guard too quickly. It's going to take a couple of months even after everyone is vaccinated to stamp out the circulating infections because the vaccine isn't 100% effective.
The U.S. will probably never achieve a 95% vaccination rate. I think 75% might even be optimistic. So even with a big vaccination acceleration in the U.S., I expect there to still be a lot of dangerous infections going on through the end of the summer. Thankfully, high levels of vaccinations among the elderly should show up in a sharp decrease in deaths. So keep using your masks and keep up the social distancing.
The fact that Texas is calling an end to the pandemic, opening all businesses and eliminating masking at this stage is just criminal. It's going to get people killed.
posted by JackFlash at 9:15 AM on March 3, 2021
You can look at the statistics in Israel as to what ending the pandemic might look like. Israel has had the highest vaccination rate in the world. They are at about 95% vaccinated right now, at least one dose. Yet infection rates are rising! They still have three times the daily infection rate of the U.S. even with 95% vaccination.
The good news is that death rates in Israel have fallen a lot, but they are now stuck at a stubborn plateau. Even at high vaccination rates, the disease still persists, perhaps because people are letting down their masking and social distancing guard too quickly. It's going to take a couple of months even after everyone is vaccinated to stamp out the circulating infections because the vaccine isn't 100% effective.
The U.S. will probably never achieve a 95% vaccination rate. I think 75% might even be optimistic. So even with a big vaccination acceleration in the U.S., I expect there to still be a lot of dangerous infections going on through the end of the summer. Thankfully, high levels of vaccinations among the elderly should show up in a sharp decrease in deaths. So keep using your masks and keep up the social distancing.
The fact that Texas is calling an end to the pandemic, opening all businesses and eliminating masking at this stage is just criminal. It's going to get people killed.
posted by JackFlash at 9:15 AM on March 3, 2021
I'm not seeing the 95% vaccination rate in Israel. This article from today puts it at 50% for the first dose.
Given the multiple lags in reporting (time to get the disease, time to develop symptoms, time to get test results, time for death) combined with the vaccine taking weeks to be effective, I wouldn't read much into current stats even if it were much higher. But the core thing is Israel is current not in fact a good snapshot of what we might expect one we have a lot of fully vaccinated people.
I remain fairly optimistic that the vaccine will in fact allow the removal of restrictions, voluntary usage of things like gyms or indoor restaurants, and put the annual death rate at flu like levels or lower. (I'm in favor of masks when shopping or doing other non-voluntary activities where people not vaccinated are likely to be present.)
posted by mark k at 1:45 PM on March 3, 2021
Given the multiple lags in reporting (time to get the disease, time to develop symptoms, time to get test results, time for death) combined with the vaccine taking weeks to be effective, I wouldn't read much into current stats even if it were much higher. But the core thing is Israel is current not in fact a good snapshot of what we might expect one we have a lot of fully vaccinated people.
I remain fairly optimistic that the vaccine will in fact allow the removal of restrictions, voluntary usage of things like gyms or indoor restaurants, and put the annual death rate at flu like levels or lower. (I'm in favor of masks when shopping or doing other non-voluntary activities where people not vaccinated are likely to be present.)
posted by mark k at 1:45 PM on March 3, 2021
You are right, mark k. I was counting total shots per population rather than percentage of either one or two shots.
But even so, Israel is at least two months ahead of the vaccination schedule in the U.S and is still seeing high rates of infection. People who think that this pandemic is going to wrap up any time soon are going to be disappointed. Early opening is going to be a disaster.
posted by JackFlash at 9:05 PM on March 3, 2021
But even so, Israel is at least two months ahead of the vaccination schedule in the U.S and is still seeing high rates of infection. People who think that this pandemic is going to wrap up any time soon are going to be disappointed. Early opening is going to be a disaster.
posted by JackFlash at 9:05 PM on March 3, 2021
Early opening is going to be a disaster.
That's one of the things that one of Germany's virologists, Dr. Christoph Drosten, mentioned in interview with Der Spiegel in January. (Article's in English). Namely that governments would feel obliged to reopen once the more vulnerable population had been vaccinated, and that would lead to an explosion in the number of cases. As he put it:
"We won't have 20,000 or 30,000 new cases a day, but up to 100,000 in a worst-case scenario. It will, of course, be primarily younger people who are less likely than older people to have severe symptoms, but when a huge number of younger people get infected, then the intensive care units will fill up anyway and a lot of people will die."
posted by scorbet at 1:12 AM on March 4, 2021
That's one of the things that one of Germany's virologists, Dr. Christoph Drosten, mentioned in interview with Der Spiegel in January. (Article's in English). Namely that governments would feel obliged to reopen once the more vulnerable population had been vaccinated, and that would lead to an explosion in the number of cases. As he put it:
"We won't have 20,000 or 30,000 new cases a day, but up to 100,000 in a worst-case scenario. It will, of course, be primarily younger people who are less likely than older people to have severe symptoms, but when a huge number of younger people get infected, then the intensive care units will fill up anyway and a lot of people will die."
posted by scorbet at 1:12 AM on March 4, 2021
But even so, Israel is at least two months ahead of the vaccination schedule in the U.S and is still seeing high rates of infection. People who think that this pandemic is going to wrap up any time soon are going to be disappointed. Early opening is going to be a disaster.
I don't get the urge to put the most pessimistic spin possible on this. I don't think anyone expects the vaccine to work before it's distributed. Why try to draw lessons from the current case statistics of a country where 90% of the people still haven't been fully vaccinated? Of course you're not going to see movement in top level stats at this point.
The vaccine, in addition to being a nearly miraculous technical accomplishment, is a roadmap to normalcy. It's not like flipping a switch but it's not like groping around in the dark trying to find a switch, either. We know the path. It's not two months until this "ends" but it's not two years, either.
Describing it as if it still leaves us indefinitely locked down isn't going to improve public safety--if anything it empowers idiots (as in Texas) who are already reopening. "Wait some unknown period of time" is not a message that combats this. "Hang in there--things are better by early summer for many people, by the end of summer for everyone" is. There has been actual reporting on this, and how the message (many) in the public take from highlight the uncertainty is that the vaccine isn't that impressive and isn't important.
Not to mention that even in two months there will be 50 million or more Americans individually protected. You won't see it in the daily cases but life will be concretely better for a huge number of people. I mean, both parents are vaccinated already, and both have pretty severe health problems they can get treatment for without feeling this crippling fear as they set up appointments.
posted by mark k at 10:13 AM on March 4, 2021
I don't get the urge to put the most pessimistic spin possible on this. I don't think anyone expects the vaccine to work before it's distributed. Why try to draw lessons from the current case statistics of a country where 90% of the people still haven't been fully vaccinated? Of course you're not going to see movement in top level stats at this point.
The vaccine, in addition to being a nearly miraculous technical accomplishment, is a roadmap to normalcy. It's not like flipping a switch but it's not like groping around in the dark trying to find a switch, either. We know the path. It's not two months until this "ends" but it's not two years, either.
Describing it as if it still leaves us indefinitely locked down isn't going to improve public safety--if anything it empowers idiots (as in Texas) who are already reopening. "Wait some unknown period of time" is not a message that combats this. "Hang in there--things are better by early summer for many people, by the end of summer for everyone" is. There has been actual reporting on this, and how the message (many) in the public take from highlight the uncertainty is that the vaccine isn't that impressive and isn't important.
Not to mention that even in two months there will be 50 million or more Americans individually protected. You won't see it in the daily cases but life will be concretely better for a huge number of people. I mean, both parents are vaccinated already, and both have pretty severe health problems they can get treatment for without feeling this crippling fear as they set up appointments.
posted by mark k at 10:13 AM on March 4, 2021
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posted by supermedusa at 5:36 PM on February 26, 2021 [16 favorites]