When It's Over
May 25, 2021 11:53 AM Subscribe
The End IS Near. No, Seriously. What the end of the pandemic looks like, by Donald G. McNeil, Jr. (slMedium)
It's not exactly that anything the author says is objectively inaccurate, but the idea of communal feeling - that some of us might care not just about our personal risk, but also about folks who are higher risk even despite vaccination (which he kind of hand waves away), or the general sense of public health as politically relevant and important - seems to elude his understanding. In other words, the overall framing is from a very individualist viewpoint. The line from The Big Lebowsky may be somewhat relevant here.
On preview/to put it another way, as TurnKey touches on, the link doesn't adequately address the political and social aspects of the pandemic.
posted by eviemath at 12:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [17 favorites]
On preview/to put it another way, as TurnKey touches on, the link doesn't adequately address the political and social aspects of the pandemic.
posted by eviemath at 12:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [17 favorites]
Herd immunity is not a moment in time. President Biden is never going to say: “Today, at 9:04 A.M., on the deck of the U.S.S. Moderna, the virus known as SARS-CoV-2 signed our general terms of surrender.”
I sometimes wonder if this is yet another cultural thing World War II permanently screwed up. The end of the war is such a definitive moment in history and it's so venerated and idealized that our society is constantly looking for endings with the same closure and emotional rush that we observe in every Hollywood film adaptation when in reality very few events actually "end" like that.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:18 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
I sometimes wonder if this is yet another cultural thing World War II permanently screwed up. The end of the war is such a definitive moment in history and it's so venerated and idealized that our society is constantly looking for endings with the same closure and emotional rush that we observe in every Hollywood film adaptation when in reality very few events actually "end" like that.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:18 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
I wouldn’t blame this on WWII; the way we teach history presumes clean beginnings and endings. We teach that the Black Death preceded the Renaissance, when in reality bubonic plague outbreaks were a common occurrence for hundreds of years after the Black Death “ended”. We like neat dates to teach and test.
posted by q*ben at 12:25 PM on May 25, 2021 [30 favorites]
posted by q*ben at 12:25 PM on May 25, 2021 [30 favorites]
I am in the UK, where 57% of the population has had the vaccine and 35% have had the second shot also. Today the so called Indian variant means that infections in one district are up to 450/100,000, with 280/100k in the neighbouring district. Other, non-neighbouring, places across the country are seeing some rises too. So maybe its nearly over and maybe its not.
posted by biffa at 12:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
posted by biffa at 12:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
If anybody is taking this article too seriously, read the next one "How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory*". Yikes. That article is terrible, and jumps to so many conclusions that it owes Tom from Office Space some money.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:43 PM on May 25, 2021 [15 favorites]
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:43 PM on May 25, 2021 [15 favorites]
The way we teach history is messed up, and I agree that it does tend to compartmentalize long-lasting events and give them much sharper edges, but I think our cultural memories of how the Second World War ended has a particularly outsized influence over how we think things should end. It's a common reductionist critique of the Vietnam War that it didn't end with parades, and Bush II tried so desperately to punctuate the Iraq War with that dumb made-for-tv carrier landing and "Mission Accomplished" banner. And this article even facetiously references the end of the Second World War while making the point that there won't be a similar conclusion to the pandemic.
I think we're conditioned to imagine the end of the pandemic as being a singular announcement that's immediately followed by ticker-tape parades and scrolling news headlines on street corners.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think we're conditioned to imagine the end of the pandemic as being a singular announcement that's immediately followed by ticker-tape parades and scrolling news headlines on street corners.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
the overall framing is from a very individualist viewpoint
I think the individualist take is very, very accurate as a descriptive matter. It describes how people think. Once people perceive a certain level of safety, they will stop taking precautions and go back to normal life. Does this screw over people with disabilities, lack of access to vaccines, or other risk factors? Of course it does. That's how people operate, on average. Not a new phenomenon.
But the article's tone sounds like it's advocating for that as a good and correct thing, so it sounds incredibly insensitive.
posted by allegedly at 12:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
I think the individualist take is very, very accurate as a descriptive matter. It describes how people think. Once people perceive a certain level of safety, they will stop taking precautions and go back to normal life. Does this screw over people with disabilities, lack of access to vaccines, or other risk factors? Of course it does. That's how people operate, on average. Not a new phenomenon.
But the article's tone sounds like it's advocating for that as a good and correct thing, so it sounds incredibly insensitive.
posted by allegedly at 12:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
I think he's overall correct about COVID ultimately becoming an accepted endemic risk, and I even understand why he felt the urge to use the framing. A fair number of people in the U.S. are making mathematically-irrational decisions and calling them rational and scolding people who think otherwise, rather than just saying that they're still uncomfortable and unsure and it was a huge fucking trauma that's not over for most of the world, so they just want to wear their masks a little longer (to be clear, I consider the latter position to be wholly understandable and defensible; wear your mask as long as you need to). But it's still not a great framing for something aimed at the broader public.
(Note that this is the guy who got fired from the NYT for using the n-word on a paper-sponsored student trip.)
posted by praemunire at 12:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
(Note that this is the guy who got fired from the NYT for using the n-word on a paper-sponsored student trip.)
posted by praemunire at 12:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
The Black Death ended.
The Bubonic plague continued to have regular outbreaks around the globe, killing 10s to 100s of 1000s at a go. It was finally declared “not a pandemic” in the mid-20th C, so... not a reassuring example?
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:53 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
The Bubonic plague continued to have regular outbreaks around the globe, killing 10s to 100s of 1000s at a go. It was finally declared “not a pandemic” in the mid-20th C, so... not a reassuring example?
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:53 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
Demasking indoors is still in transition: in restaurants yes, in grocery stores no. That makes little sense, but it’s how it is. Now even Trader Joe’s says it will ease up on masks, though some of my neighbors are clearly unhappy about that.
It makes little sense? You can't eat in a restaurant with a mask on, but you can shop in Trader Joe's just fine. It makes perfect sense. I'm getting the vibe that this guy wants to go without a mask but is feeling guilty because so many people around him are still wearing masks, and he wants to say "Take off your mask already!"
In a few places like California, it is still a requirement for a few more weeks indoors. Also, many of us have found masks that aren't too uncomfortable to wear and it has become a habit to put it on (at least in areas where it is more socially acceptable and even expected to wear one). It was already the norm in several Asian countries when people are feeling sick for any reason, and I hope this becomes one in the US too.
It took us a while to get in the habit of always putting one on and it will now take us a while to break that habit and to collectively feel comfortable walking around with other people who don't have masks on.
posted by eye of newt at 12:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
It makes little sense? You can't eat in a restaurant with a mask on, but you can shop in Trader Joe's just fine. It makes perfect sense. I'm getting the vibe that this guy wants to go without a mask but is feeling guilty because so many people around him are still wearing masks, and he wants to say "Take off your mask already!"
In a few places like California, it is still a requirement for a few more weeks indoors. Also, many of us have found masks that aren't too uncomfortable to wear and it has become a habit to put it on (at least in areas where it is more socially acceptable and even expected to wear one). It was already the norm in several Asian countries when people are feeling sick for any reason, and I hope this becomes one in the US too.
It took us a while to get in the habit of always putting one on and it will now take us a while to break that habit and to collectively feel comfortable walking around with other people who don't have masks on.
posted by eye of newt at 12:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
It's not exactly that anything the author says is objectively inaccurate, but the idea of communal feeling - that some of us might care not just about our personal risk, but also about folks who are higher risk even despite vaccination (which he kind of hand waves away), or the general sense of public health as politically relevant and important - seems to elude his understanding.
eviemath
But is he? If a person is fully vaccinated, what are the risks of transmission to other people at that point? From what I understand, it's nearly 0. Maybe I'm wrong about that, happy to be corrected if you have a valid source. But if it's accurate that a vaccinated person can't transmit the disease, then the masks serve no medical purpose. There may be other reasons you might want to war one (e.g., just for the peace of mind of the unvaccinated to signal you aren't just some anti-masker), but I keep seeing the choice of a vaccinated person not to wear a mask as some selfish and dangerous act (especially here on MeFi) when the science does not seem to support that position.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [21 favorites]
eviemath
But is he? If a person is fully vaccinated, what are the risks of transmission to other people at that point? From what I understand, it's nearly 0. Maybe I'm wrong about that, happy to be corrected if you have a valid source. But if it's accurate that a vaccinated person can't transmit the disease, then the masks serve no medical purpose. There may be other reasons you might want to war one (e.g., just for the peace of mind of the unvaccinated to signal you aren't just some anti-masker), but I keep seeing the choice of a vaccinated person not to wear a mask as some selfish and dangerous act (especially here on MeFi) when the science does not seem to support that position.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [21 favorites]
Does this screw over people with disabilities, lack of access to vaccines, or other risk factors?
This is the kind of thing I'm talking about, though. Unless the numbers are very wrong, whether or not a vaccinated person wears a mask to go grocery shopping has almost no effect on the safety of an unvaccinated person, especially one who takes precautions themselves. I understand why any given unvaccinated person might prefer personally to eliminate any possible shaving of risk that they might contract COVID and die (it's no comfort to be the only one who dies, as you're still dying), and for that reason I intend to continue wearing my mask while grocery shopping for some time, as a courtesy. But, bluntly, until we develop more effective treatments for COVID, unvaccinated, vaccinated-but-immunosuppressed, etc. people are going to remain at significant risk. Just as they already are for a number of things. It may be years until this changes. People can't be expected to mask indefinitely when the risk of transmission posed by their not masking is negligible.
posted by praemunire at 1:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
This is the kind of thing I'm talking about, though. Unless the numbers are very wrong, whether or not a vaccinated person wears a mask to go grocery shopping has almost no effect on the safety of an unvaccinated person, especially one who takes precautions themselves. I understand why any given unvaccinated person might prefer personally to eliminate any possible shaving of risk that they might contract COVID and die (it's no comfort to be the only one who dies, as you're still dying), and for that reason I intend to continue wearing my mask while grocery shopping for some time, as a courtesy. But, bluntly, until we develop more effective treatments for COVID, unvaccinated, vaccinated-but-immunosuppressed, etc. people are going to remain at significant risk. Just as they already are for a number of things. It may be years until this changes. People can't be expected to mask indefinitely when the risk of transmission posed by their not masking is negligible.
posted by praemunire at 1:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
It makes little sense? You can't eat in a restaurant with a mask on, but you can shop in Trader Joe's just fine.
It makes little sense because you are breathing in either scenario. \Why is sitting indoors in a restaurant with a bunch of unmasked people for 30 minutes to a few hours somehow more safe than people in masks walking through a grocery store? It's not, it makes no sense from a medical safety POV. It may make a difference from a political or social POV, but that's not the justification stores use when imposing these requirements.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:02 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
It makes little sense because you are breathing in either scenario. \Why is sitting indoors in a restaurant with a bunch of unmasked people for 30 minutes to a few hours somehow more safe than people in masks walking through a grocery store? It's not, it makes no sense from a medical safety POV. It may make a difference from a political or social POV, but that's not the justification stores use when imposing these requirements.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:02 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
I just got back from a weekend trip down to the Bay Area to see my son for the first time in two years...
I will discuss mask-wearing at rest stops along the way. All of the mini-marts I went to, etc. all still had masks required signs.
Washington: Everyone wearing masks going into the bathrooms.
Oregon: All masked, until I stopped at one south of Eugene. As I approached the bathroom, three dudes all walked out of there totally unmasked. See also the Grants Pass RA, and one in far northern CA.
California: Once I got out of the far north, again, anyone going in to the bathroom was masked.
Which, coincidentally, matches up with the Blue/Red leanings of the area. Make of this what you will.
posted by Windopaene at 1:05 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
I will discuss mask-wearing at rest stops along the way. All of the mini-marts I went to, etc. all still had masks required signs.
Washington: Everyone wearing masks going into the bathrooms.
Oregon: All masked, until I stopped at one south of Eugene. As I approached the bathroom, three dudes all walked out of there totally unmasked. See also the Grants Pass RA, and one in far northern CA.
California: Once I got out of the far north, again, anyone going in to the bathroom was masked.
Which, coincidentally, matches up with the Blue/Red leanings of the area. Make of this what you will.
posted by Windopaene at 1:05 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
He talks about risk, and, well. My understanding of risk has changed to include parameters relating to the community and the fact that not everybody in the community is equally at risk of serious consequences. My worldview has substantially changed in a year, and I don't see a commensurate change in his discussion. Which isn't to say that we all need to have the same grand epiphanies at the same time, but his points seem useless to me without that acknowledgement.
I'm having the same feelings about discussion at work about "returning to normal / the office." The bigwigs are so invested in bringing us back in, but there's also been little/no discussion about how what was normal could be improved upon, especially in light of the shared trauma of the employees. I guess that makes some kind of sense - the higher up you are, the less your life changed re: lockdown?
I don't know. I'm a different person than I was. Some people don't seem to have changed that much, absorbed that much from the experience. Just another thing to feel distant about.
posted by snerson at 1:10 PM on May 25, 2021 [16 favorites]
I'm having the same feelings about discussion at work about "returning to normal / the office." The bigwigs are so invested in bringing us back in, but there's also been little/no discussion about how what was normal could be improved upon, especially in light of the shared trauma of the employees. I guess that makes some kind of sense - the higher up you are, the less your life changed re: lockdown?
I don't know. I'm a different person than I was. Some people don't seem to have changed that much, absorbed that much from the experience. Just another thing to feel distant about.
posted by snerson at 1:10 PM on May 25, 2021 [16 favorites]
It makes little sense? You can't eat in a restaurant with a mask on, but you can shop in Trader Joe's just fine.
It makes little sense because you are breathing in either scenario
It makes sense because you can't wear a mask in a restaurant. Even if you wear a mask out of the house most places, a restaurant is one place where you can't so you don't. People who feel more personally comfortable with a mask will wear one where possible, and may just choose to avoid restaurants.
The thing that gets me is this: when there was no vaccine, and for some age groups getting the disease meant a reasonable chance of getting very sick and even dying, having other people not wear a mask was a definite threat.
Now that people are vaccinated, you can argue that it is perfectly save to not wear a mask.
But, it was always true and remains true that wearing a mask is not in any way a threat to anyone. So why are people so upset when other people are wearing masks? Why do you care?
posted by eye of newt at 1:14 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
It makes little sense because you are breathing in either scenario
It makes sense because you can't wear a mask in a restaurant. Even if you wear a mask out of the house most places, a restaurant is one place where you can't so you don't. People who feel more personally comfortable with a mask will wear one where possible, and may just choose to avoid restaurants.
The thing that gets me is this: when there was no vaccine, and for some age groups getting the disease meant a reasonable chance of getting very sick and even dying, having other people not wear a mask was a definite threat.
Now that people are vaccinated, you can argue that it is perfectly save to not wear a mask.
But, it was always true and remains true that wearing a mask is not in any way a threat to anyone. So why are people so upset when other people are wearing masks? Why do you care?
posted by eye of newt at 1:14 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
I'm in a major metro city where I think most people have at least one shot (I'm fully vaxxed) and I don't know, I feel more comfortable with it on. Both as a "signaling" thing and that I became acutely aware of my breath the last year. Not smelling other people's breath has been great!
posted by europeandaughter at 1:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by europeandaughter at 1:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
People are "so upset" because there are plenty of posters who are saying that anyone who doesn't wear a mask - vaccinated or not - is basically a Republican.
(commenting from Canada with my first shot tomorrow; I'm mostly just jealous of your access to vaccines.)
posted by sagc at 1:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [16 favorites]
(commenting from Canada with my first shot tomorrow; I'm mostly just jealous of your access to vaccines.)
posted by sagc at 1:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [16 favorites]
In my ideal, post-pandemic world, I would not wear a mask when at small, intimate gatherings with trusted friends, and I would never go out among the general public again at all.
posted by Faint of Butt at 1:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [60 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 1:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [60 favorites]
I am no longer a mask wearer. Any place it is optional, I opt out. I am in the NYC suburbs. Not wearing a mask is like driving in a classic convertible car. You get some thumbs up and some sideways glances, but you also get the feeling that everyone is looking at you. It is why I sold my 1975 convertible. Wasn't looking for the attention, just liked the car.
Around here, I am in a definite minority. I went into Target and there were 3 customers without masks. Me, a man who gave me the thumbs up and a lady who looked really harried and might have even forgotten her mask rather than chose not to wear it. As the author wrote, the pandemic will end for people at different times.
I also went into a small store in town without my mask and the person behind the cash register asked if I wanted a mask. I asked if they were required. When she said not required, I said no. When I got up to pay for my items, she told me I was the first person to turn her down. The manager wanted her to ask. They were afraid to keep the mask requirement but really wanted it. I told her they should just keep the requirement. I would have either worn their mask or walked out, no hard feelings either way.
The cry of follow the science apparently only works one way for some. I don't see any issue with someone wearing a mask if they want, but the CDC says no longer necessary (in most circumstances). So I am not wearing one. I was surprised they did not bring the level down in steps, first two masks, then one, then none.
I am a betting man and a person that assesses risk and reward all day long for my work (Stock and derivatives trader.) To me, this whole pandemic is all about risk and reward. At one point the numbers were staggering for wearing masks, social distancing, staying home, etc. Now the numbers are staggering in favor or living your life without specific caution (except in a few cases). To each their own.
What I do not get is why some people wear one as virtue signaling or to avoid being seen as one party. Me? I don't give a hoot if you think I am republican, democrat or independent.
posted by AugustWest at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [15 favorites]
Around here, I am in a definite minority. I went into Target and there were 3 customers without masks. Me, a man who gave me the thumbs up and a lady who looked really harried and might have even forgotten her mask rather than chose not to wear it. As the author wrote, the pandemic will end for people at different times.
I also went into a small store in town without my mask and the person behind the cash register asked if I wanted a mask. I asked if they were required. When she said not required, I said no. When I got up to pay for my items, she told me I was the first person to turn her down. The manager wanted her to ask. They were afraid to keep the mask requirement but really wanted it. I told her they should just keep the requirement. I would have either worn their mask or walked out, no hard feelings either way.
The cry of follow the science apparently only works one way for some. I don't see any issue with someone wearing a mask if they want, but the CDC says no longer necessary (in most circumstances). So I am not wearing one. I was surprised they did not bring the level down in steps, first two masks, then one, then none.
I am a betting man and a person that assesses risk and reward all day long for my work (Stock and derivatives trader.) To me, this whole pandemic is all about risk and reward. At one point the numbers were staggering for wearing masks, social distancing, staying home, etc. Now the numbers are staggering in favor or living your life without specific caution (except in a few cases). To each their own.
What I do not get is why some people wear one as virtue signaling or to avoid being seen as one party. Me? I don't give a hoot if you think I am republican, democrat or independent.
posted by AugustWest at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [15 favorites]
Earlier today my hubby and I unexpectedly realized the whole day was free for both of us. We've both been vaccinated for months. In a different year we could have just decided to drive down to Santa Cruz and enjoy the boardwalk but because he's immune compromised and medically fragile we just can't do that, possibly ever again?? Sucks to be us I guess.
posted by bleep at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
posted by bleep at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
Mask use (to wear/not to wear) has become such a big deal to some people. I do think anyone who has a strong opinion on Why It's Fine to Not Wear a Mask is a bit of an asshole if that is what they feel compelled to lead with. We continue to get surprises with this pandemic, and wearing a mask indoors, in public spaces, is something I will continue to do at least until my second jab. I will likely wear a mask in public during flu season now. I don't really give a shit whether that means a "non-mask wearer" is a Republican or whatever, that has zero bearing on my choices.
posted by elkevelvet at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 1:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
Let me try this again. I think discussing this is hard because our cultural vocabulary could use some expanding right about now.
There's the pandemic: the spread of the disease and the physical toll it takes on people's bodies.
And then there's The Pandemic: the compounding social disaster which knocked our legs out from under us, collectively, or showed where our legs were just not there before. The shitty finale to 45's fire show.
This article is responding to the pandemic. A lot of people are responding to the pandemic. I can only really speak for myself when I say I am still acting in response to The Pandemic.
Unfortunately, these terms are very similar. I think we could stand to break out a name. I have no idea where to start, other than I think that tunnel scene from Willy Wonka would be a great place to start.
posted by snerson at 1:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
There's the pandemic: the spread of the disease and the physical toll it takes on people's bodies.
And then there's The Pandemic: the compounding social disaster which knocked our legs out from under us, collectively, or showed where our legs were just not there before. The shitty finale to 45's fire show.
This article is responding to the pandemic. A lot of people are responding to the pandemic. I can only really speak for myself when I say I am still acting in response to The Pandemic.
Unfortunately, these terms are very similar. I think we could stand to break out a name. I have no idea where to start, other than I think that tunnel scene from Willy Wonka would be a great place to start.
posted by snerson at 1:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
I'm not at all convinced it's time to end mask mandates.
I'm fully vaccinated, everyone in my family is except my 14 year old son and he's had his first shot. In theory I could go without a mask because in theory I can't be spreading it to people.
But, and this is important, the MAGA crowd is made up of filthy liars who say they will never, under any circumstances at all, ever be vaccinated. And every one of them will now be stomping around without a mask, spreading COVID, encouraging new strains to evolve, and will claim to be vaccinated if anyone dares bring it up.
Basically the CDC put us on the honor system, and the people actively and maliciously spreading the plague have no honor.
So I wear a mask because I think as a society we still need the pressure to wear a mask so as to keep this shit from exploding again.
And, I'll be honest, I do not want to be mistaken for a MAGA jerk. Right now, in my area, going maskless will make you look like a MAGA jerk.
I also don't want to make people uncomfortable. Right now going without a mask, justifiably, makes people uncomfortable.
I also really hate that management is using "COVID is over" as an excuse to end all WFH. It worked! If nothing else COVID prooved that a huge number of jobs do not, actually, require you to commute with all the greenhouse gasses and risk that entails (to say nothing of the wasted time).
But management wants to have peons to micromanage, so back to your cube serf!
posted by sotonohito at 1:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [102 favorites]
I'm fully vaccinated, everyone in my family is except my 14 year old son and he's had his first shot. In theory I could go without a mask because in theory I can't be spreading it to people.
But, and this is important, the MAGA crowd is made up of filthy liars who say they will never, under any circumstances at all, ever be vaccinated. And every one of them will now be stomping around without a mask, spreading COVID, encouraging new strains to evolve, and will claim to be vaccinated if anyone dares bring it up.
Basically the CDC put us on the honor system, and the people actively and maliciously spreading the plague have no honor.
So I wear a mask because I think as a society we still need the pressure to wear a mask so as to keep this shit from exploding again.
And, I'll be honest, I do not want to be mistaken for a MAGA jerk. Right now, in my area, going maskless will make you look like a MAGA jerk.
I also don't want to make people uncomfortable. Right now going without a mask, justifiably, makes people uncomfortable.
I also really hate that management is using "COVID is over" as an excuse to end all WFH. It worked! If nothing else COVID prooved that a huge number of jobs do not, actually, require you to commute with all the greenhouse gasses and risk that entails (to say nothing of the wasted time).
But management wants to have peons to micromanage, so back to your cube serf!
posted by sotonohito at 1:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [102 favorites]
What I do not get is why some people wear one as virtue signaling or to avoid being seen as one party. Me? I don't give a hoot if you think I am republican, democrat or independent.
Because for a year not wearing a mask meant "I'm a selfish asshole" and, I dunno about you, I DO care if someone thinks I'm a selfish asshole. I've stopped wearing a mask when I go for walks outside and the first few times I did it I was convinced that's what everyone thought.
I'm vaxed, have been for a while now, and I'm going to keep wearing a mask indoors because I know seeing people without masks causes anxiety for a lot of people. That will probably ease up in the next few weeks, and I'm looking forward to the day we can all take them off, but for now I'll just do it because it takes zero effort on my part and it makes people more comfortable.
We are so close, and people are still traumatized. I think we need to give it a little bit for that trauma to subside.
posted by bondcliff at 1:31 PM on May 25, 2021 [61 favorites]
Because for a year not wearing a mask meant "I'm a selfish asshole" and, I dunno about you, I DO care if someone thinks I'm a selfish asshole. I've stopped wearing a mask when I go for walks outside and the first few times I did it I was convinced that's what everyone thought.
I'm vaxed, have been for a while now, and I'm going to keep wearing a mask indoors because I know seeing people without masks causes anxiety for a lot of people. That will probably ease up in the next few weeks, and I'm looking forward to the day we can all take them off, but for now I'll just do it because it takes zero effort on my part and it makes people more comfortable.
We are so close, and people are still traumatized. I think we need to give it a little bit for that trauma to subside.
posted by bondcliff at 1:31 PM on May 25, 2021 [61 favorites]
I am a betting man and a person that assesses risk and reward all day long for my work (Stock and derivatives trader.) To me, this whole pandemic is all about risk and reward. At one point the numbers were staggering for wearing masks, social distancing, staying home, etc. Now the numbers are staggering in favor or living your life without specific caution (except in a few cases). To each their own.
I want to make the argument for extending some kindness here. I don't think I disagree with your risk analysis, as I said above. But the particularly vulnerable, especially those who can't be effectively vaccinated, have had a really tough year, and much of their suffering falls squarely on us as a society for our epic failures in addressing the spread of the virus. If it makes the vulnerable feel a little safer for us to wear the mask a little longer, I think it's a good idea. I don't think it makes you a bad person not to (as long as that's consistent with the rules), but the cost to us in air-conditioned stores is really very little.
I also wouldn't mind if stores turned their "senior hours" into mask-mandatory hours for at least another year. Give people the option.
posted by praemunire at 1:32 PM on May 25, 2021 [68 favorites]
I want to make the argument for extending some kindness here. I don't think I disagree with your risk analysis, as I said above. But the particularly vulnerable, especially those who can't be effectively vaccinated, have had a really tough year, and much of their suffering falls squarely on us as a society for our epic failures in addressing the spread of the virus. If it makes the vulnerable feel a little safer for us to wear the mask a little longer, I think it's a good idea. I don't think it makes you a bad person not to (as long as that's consistent with the rules), but the cost to us in air-conditioned stores is really very little.
I also wouldn't mind if stores turned their "senior hours" into mask-mandatory hours for at least another year. Give people the option.
posted by praemunire at 1:32 PM on May 25, 2021 [68 favorites]
I'm going to keep wearing a mask for the indefinite future. Why?
Well, I'm immunocompromised; I have Crohn's disease, and I take Stelara for it. Recently research has come out indicating that the vaccines are effective for people on Stelara, so I'll be no more at risk for Covid than anyone else who's gotten the shots.
But I'm seriously at risk from the common cold, and flu, and pneumonia. Any respiratory virus that most people would shake off in a few days might land me in a hospital. And now that wearing a mask is something people can do, you bet your ass I'll be masking up whenever I'm confronting the vast mass of humanity.
Plus, it'll make dumb people mad, which is fun.
posted by MrVisible at 1:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [47 favorites]
Well, I'm immunocompromised; I have Crohn's disease, and I take Stelara for it. Recently research has come out indicating that the vaccines are effective for people on Stelara, so I'll be no more at risk for Covid than anyone else who's gotten the shots.
But I'm seriously at risk from the common cold, and flu, and pneumonia. Any respiratory virus that most people would shake off in a few days might land me in a hospital. And now that wearing a mask is something people can do, you bet your ass I'll be masking up whenever I'm confronting the vast mass of humanity.
Plus, it'll make dumb people mad, which is fun.
posted by MrVisible at 1:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [47 favorites]
If you're in California, there's always going to be a reason to wear a mask. It's either allergy season, fire/smoke season, or cold/flu season.
And plus, higher Asian and Asian-American population means there's going to be a group of people who will continue to wear masks for the foreseeable future.
posted by FJT at 1:37 PM on May 25, 2021 [4 favorites]
And plus, higher Asian and Asian-American population means there's going to be a group of people who will continue to wear masks for the foreseeable future.
posted by FJT at 1:37 PM on May 25, 2021 [4 favorites]
I still live in a state where mask mandates are firmly in place, and I find the rejoicing over the end of masks in the rest of the country a bit bewildering. I wouldn't put "wearing a mask" to be one of the top ten bad things about the pandemic - there are just so many other terrible things that have happened, that wearing a mask barely scratches the surface.
The idea that the pandemic is over from a health perspective seems almost irrelevant. There are major, permanent changes that have happened over the past year that we have to deal with. Everything from stores and restaurants that permanently closed, friends that have bailed in the ensuing recession to other states/countries to never return, and streets closed to auto traffic that no one should be excited to "return to normal".
posted by meowzilla at 1:44 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
The idea that the pandemic is over from a health perspective seems almost irrelevant. There are major, permanent changes that have happened over the past year that we have to deal with. Everything from stores and restaurants that permanently closed, friends that have bailed in the ensuing recession to other states/countries to never return, and streets closed to auto traffic that no one should be excited to "return to normal".
posted by meowzilla at 1:44 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
What I do not get is why some people wear one as virtue signaling or to avoid being seen as one party.
The reason is fairly obvious: Trump early on made not wearing a mask a show of support for him. As praemunire said, whether medically necessary or not, wearing a mask might help give vulnerable people ease of mind that you're not just a MAGA chud to be avoided. Conservatives made it very, very clear that they absolutely do not give a fuck about other people's health or safety during the pandemic, and in fact actively reveled in endangering other people, so it's not unreasonable to let other people know you do care.
I suspect, though, that this is also the reason why these mask discussions can get kind of heated. Beyond the medical risk or even kindness issue, people viscerally associate not wearing a mask with Trump and recoil accordingly.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [27 favorites]
The reason is fairly obvious: Trump early on made not wearing a mask a show of support for him. As praemunire said, whether medically necessary or not, wearing a mask might help give vulnerable people ease of mind that you're not just a MAGA chud to be avoided. Conservatives made it very, very clear that they absolutely do not give a fuck about other people's health or safety during the pandemic, and in fact actively reveled in endangering other people, so it's not unreasonable to let other people know you do care.
I suspect, though, that this is also the reason why these mask discussions can get kind of heated. Beyond the medical risk or even kindness issue, people viscerally associate not wearing a mask with Trump and recoil accordingly.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [27 favorites]
Man would anybody have predicted fourteen months ago that threads about the pandemic would still be devolving into arguments about masks?
If you're in California, there's always going to be a reason to wear a mask. It's either allergy season, fire/smoke season, or cold/flu season.
For sure. I have so many damn masks at this point - the good ones - and I think from time to time well at least I’ll have occasion to wear them. You know, when the state is on fire again.
posted by atoxyl at 1:49 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
If you're in California, there's always going to be a reason to wear a mask. It's either allergy season, fire/smoke season, or cold/flu season.
For sure. I have so many damn masks at this point - the good ones - and I think from time to time well at least I’ll have occasion to wear them. You know, when the state is on fire again.
posted by atoxyl at 1:49 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
Also wearing masks in stores and restaurants is one way to show solidarity with workers who may have little choice in where they work and/or no way of knowing the vaccination status of their customers, if people are searching for a reason.
posted by mochapickle at 1:50 PM on May 25, 2021 [58 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 1:50 PM on May 25, 2021 [58 favorites]
I'm not at all convinced it's time to end mask mandates.
Me either. While deaths are declining in the US, the decline has slowed, and the 7 day average still equates to almost 200,000 deaths per year. I think it is absolute madness to rollback protective measures before death and case rates have actually come down to acceptable levels.
posted by jedicus at 1:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [37 favorites]
Me either. While deaths are declining in the US, the decline has slowed, and the 7 day average still equates to almost 200,000 deaths per year. I think it is absolute madness to rollback protective measures before death and case rates have actually come down to acceptable levels.
posted by jedicus at 1:52 PM on May 25, 2021 [37 favorites]
Here in the UK even those of us who have had both vaccinations are advised to continue social distancing as it is not fully understood if the vaccination means you cant pass the virus on to others
This was the initial advice in the U.S. as well but has been revised i.e. the official position is that the transmission risk for vaccinated people is not zero but greatly reduced, just as the risk of illness is not zero but greatly reduced. It’s a hard thing to prove definitively but it’s certainly where the evidence points and it was really the realistic bet from the beginning.
(U.K. also has a different vaccine of course but even if the effectiveness numbers against symptomatic infection are 10% lower on paper or whatever compared to Pfizer/Moderna I don’t think there’s a reason to think the numbers against asymptomatic infection and transmission are going to be lower out of proportion to that.)
posted by atoxyl at 1:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
This was the initial advice in the U.S. as well but has been revised i.e. the official position is that the transmission risk for vaccinated people is not zero but greatly reduced, just as the risk of illness is not zero but greatly reduced. It’s a hard thing to prove definitively but it’s certainly where the evidence points and it was really the realistic bet from the beginning.
(U.K. also has a different vaccine of course but even if the effectiveness numbers against symptomatic infection are 10% lower on paper or whatever compared to Pfizer/Moderna I don’t think there’s a reason to think the numbers against asymptomatic infection and transmission are going to be lower out of proportion to that.)
posted by atoxyl at 1:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
I'm on vacation in Maui right now and have been eating mostly indoors, unmasked. I'm actually surprised at how comfortable I was taking it off after over a year of avoiding indoor space with anyone else, masked or not. Vaccines are a hell of a thing.
We've been deciding what to do at my wife's shop when the mask mandate drops in California next month. What we've settled on is going mask optional, employees still wearing them as an example for those who want to, even though they're fully vaccinated, and people who aren't comfortable or are immunocompromised can make private appointments for what they need before or after regular hours. It's a bit more effort for the staff but seems to be the fairest for customers.
Once the mandate drops in liberal areas where adherence has been good I think things are going to go back to "normal" shockingly quickly. I'll follow whatever consensus in an area seems to be and will bring a mask for a long time going forward, but I personally will be happy to not wear one in most circumstances.
I can't control what other people do, but I know I'm vaccinated and am extremely unlikely to catch COVID or spread it to others and that's enough for me. If not now, then when? There's not going to be a magic number that makes me more comfortable than I am now.
posted by mikesch at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
We've been deciding what to do at my wife's shop when the mask mandate drops in California next month. What we've settled on is going mask optional, employees still wearing them as an example for those who want to, even though they're fully vaccinated, and people who aren't comfortable or are immunocompromised can make private appointments for what they need before or after regular hours. It's a bit more effort for the staff but seems to be the fairest for customers.
Once the mandate drops in liberal areas where adherence has been good I think things are going to go back to "normal" shockingly quickly. I'll follow whatever consensus in an area seems to be and will bring a mask for a long time going forward, but I personally will be happy to not wear one in most circumstances.
I can't control what other people do, but I know I'm vaccinated and am extremely unlikely to catch COVID or spread it to others and that's enough for me. If not now, then when? There's not going to be a magic number that makes me more comfortable than I am now.
posted by mikesch at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
Megami, this information is out of date. See, e.g.
posted by praemunire at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
> "Here in the UK even those of us who have had both vaccinations are advised to continue social distancing..."
Yeah. Living in a country where overall caseloads are currently significantly lower than in the U.S., vaccination rates are comparable, and mask mandates are still in place and are being highly and publicly encouraged makes many of the comments in this thread seem pretty bizarre to me. Don't y'all remember the last dozen or so times people said Well It's Obviously Over Now Let's Stop Trying?
posted by kyrademon at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [38 favorites]
Yeah. Living in a country where overall caseloads are currently significantly lower than in the U.S., vaccination rates are comparable, and mask mandates are still in place and are being highly and publicly encouraged makes many of the comments in this thread seem pretty bizarre to me. Don't y'all remember the last dozen or so times people said Well It's Obviously Over Now Let's Stop Trying?
posted by kyrademon at 1:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [38 favorites]
If you're in a public place where the majority of people are still masking up or if someone asks you to wear one, please be considerate and just wear a mask. Just carry one with you and if the situation requires it, put it on.
Is that so hard?
Do we really have to turn not wearing a mask into some kind of power flex? At this point in time, going maskless in stores and other public places is like open carrying. Don't be that asshole who shows up with a holstered gun and doesn't understand why people are giving him such a wide berth.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [39 favorites]
Is that so hard?
Do we really have to turn not wearing a mask into some kind of power flex? At this point in time, going maskless in stores and other public places is like open carrying. Don't be that asshole who shows up with a holstered gun and doesn't understand why people are giving him such a wide berth.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [39 favorites]
What? A person who has been vaccinated is not, in fact, carrying around a gun.
That's a terrible nonsense analogy.
posted by sagc at 2:00 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
That's a terrible nonsense analogy.
posted by sagc at 2:00 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
Meanwhile, India recently hit 300k (recorded) COVID deaths, just over 100k of which occurred in the last month.
The Philippines has recorded over 20k deaths so far and 3,972 new cases, though things are starting to finally trend downwards.
Brazil's COVID crisis is continuing, having hit its peak in April, with many cases in infants and children.
This is far from "over" for many, many millions of people, and given the struggles and ignorance of wealthy countries, it probably won't be over for them for a while.
posted by fight or flight at 2:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
The Philippines has recorded over 20k deaths so far and 3,972 new cases, though things are starting to finally trend downwards.
Brazil's COVID crisis is continuing, having hit its peak in April, with many cases in infants and children.
This is far from "over" for many, many millions of people, and given the struggles and ignorance of wealthy countries, it probably won't be over for them for a while.
posted by fight or flight at 2:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
What? A person who has been vaccinated is not, in fact, carrying around a gun.
There's no way of knowing that a given maskless person has been vaccinated, just like there's no way of knowing that a random individual carrying a gun is responsible.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:02 PM on May 25, 2021 [52 favorites]
There's no way of knowing that a given maskless person has been vaccinated, just like there's no way of knowing that a random individual carrying a gun is responsible.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:02 PM on May 25, 2021 [52 favorites]
why are people so upset when other people are wearing masks? Why do you care?
Because seeing a mask is a visible reminder that the pandemic is still here and that the death toll continues to rise. That's an upsetting realization, Medium thinkpieces notwithstanding, and for those who proclaim that covid is a hoax, it's massive cognitive dissonance as well.
posted by basalganglia at 2:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
Because seeing a mask is a visible reminder that the pandemic is still here and that the death toll continues to rise. That's an upsetting realization, Medium thinkpieces notwithstanding, and for those who proclaim that covid is a hoax, it's massive cognitive dissonance as well.
posted by basalganglia at 2:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
While deaths are declining in the US, the decline has slowed
Isn’t that expected from an exponential decline? I’m probably being overly literal here but last I saw deaths were at least back in decline after a bit of a bump up a few weeks ago.
posted by atoxyl at 2:04 PM on May 25, 2021
Isn’t that expected from an exponential decline? I’m probably being overly literal here but last I saw deaths were at least back in decline after a bit of a bump up a few weeks ago.
posted by atoxyl at 2:04 PM on May 25, 2021
Everyone for a year loudly announcing they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves suddenly is surprised by people pointing out they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves.
posted by bleep at 2:05 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
posted by bleep at 2:05 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
My partner and I have been fully vaccinated for a while now. We still wear masks even in the drive-through because we don't want anyone to have to play the guessing game. But yes, I can't fucking wait for the time when we don't have to wear them anymore. Masks are complete sensory hell. Good for you if they're no big deal, but some of us can't even wear collared shirts without freaking out, so. Yeah. This autistic is ready for it to be over, but is courteous of others and so will keep suffering until it is.
Mostly I just don't go out anywhere that I'll have to wear a mask for more than 15 minutes. Pretty worried because school/work are going back in-person soon and I have no idea how I'll react to wearing a mask for that long, but evidence suggests it won't be pretty. I'll still do it of course. Just come home and cry after.
posted by brook horse at 2:11 PM on May 25, 2021 [24 favorites]
Mostly I just don't go out anywhere that I'll have to wear a mask for more than 15 minutes. Pretty worried because school/work are going back in-person soon and I have no idea how I'll react to wearing a mask for that long, but evidence suggests it won't be pretty. I'll still do it of course. Just come home and cry after.
posted by brook horse at 2:11 PM on May 25, 2021 [24 favorites]
In the authors defense even Fauci has changed his tune of the possibility of a lab leak to, we need to look into this more seriously.
The lab was working on gain of function studies on coronavirus. They were taking safety measures consistent with working with viruses that were not highly contagious and not able to spread via aerosol droplets. They were monitoring employees for illness but the initial group of people at the lab might of gotten very mild cases — just line so many of the other super spreaders who didn’t feel sick, or thought it was allergies. All those precautions were inadequate when working with this virus, if they had been working with the virus.
I think it probably was an accidental release; but we will never know. Some facts are too dangerous.
posted by interogative mood at 2:13 PM on May 25, 2021
The lab was working on gain of function studies on coronavirus. They were taking safety measures consistent with working with viruses that were not highly contagious and not able to spread via aerosol droplets. They were monitoring employees for illness but the initial group of people at the lab might of gotten very mild cases — just line so many of the other super spreaders who didn’t feel sick, or thought it was allergies. All those precautions were inadequate when working with this virus, if they had been working with the virus.
I think it probably was an accidental release; but we will never know. Some facts are too dangerous.
posted by interogative mood at 2:13 PM on May 25, 2021
Don't y'all remember the last dozen or so times people said Well It's Obviously Over Now Let's Stop Trying?
Yes. And it was based on nothing whatsoever but wishful thinking, if not outright sociopathy, and was obviously catastrophically foolish. A highly effective vaccine makes a real difference!
So many people seem to be imprisoned in pandemic-movie narratives. "People are still getting sick and dying." Yes, almost exclusively the unvaccinated. "Meanwhile, many many deaths in India." Yes, it's horrifying. But they have an even worse health care system than ours...and extremely low vaccination rates. "People have been wrong before." Yes, they have. The difference between then and now is the vaccine. We are not actually living in a world where a fact coming to your attention has the same meaning as the director cutting to some data on a screen with ominous music in the background.
Again, wear a mask while vaccinated as long as you want to to feel comfortable. I'll still be doing it in various situations where I think it might give people comfort. But I'm kind of astounded by how much smart people seem to...not be able to grasp what the relevant factors actually are to determining actual risk. Especially after a year in which we've learned so much.
posted by praemunire at 2:14 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
Yes. And it was based on nothing whatsoever but wishful thinking, if not outright sociopathy, and was obviously catastrophically foolish. A highly effective vaccine makes a real difference!
So many people seem to be imprisoned in pandemic-movie narratives. "People are still getting sick and dying." Yes, almost exclusively the unvaccinated. "Meanwhile, many many deaths in India." Yes, it's horrifying. But they have an even worse health care system than ours...and extremely low vaccination rates. "People have been wrong before." Yes, they have. The difference between then and now is the vaccine. We are not actually living in a world where a fact coming to your attention has the same meaning as the director cutting to some data on a screen with ominous music in the background.
Again, wear a mask while vaccinated as long as you want to to feel comfortable. I'll still be doing it in various situations where I think it might give people comfort. But I'm kind of astounded by how much smart people seem to...not be able to grasp what the relevant factors actually are to determining actual risk. Especially after a year in which we've learned so much.
posted by praemunire at 2:14 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
Don't y'all remember the last dozen or so times people said Well It's Obviously Over Now Let's Stop Trying?
I think the article does a reasonable job outlining what it means by “over.” The virus will probably never be gone and the pandemic is going strong in many countries. But to act like things aren’t approaching a point beyond which they will be fundamentally different in places that do have widespread access to vaccination is just... almost certainly incorrect. And I see people act that way on a level that rises to dangerous misinformation, even.
posted by atoxyl at 2:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
I think the article does a reasonable job outlining what it means by “over.” The virus will probably never be gone and the pandemic is going strong in many countries. But to act like things aren’t approaching a point beyond which they will be fundamentally different in places that do have widespread access to vaccination is just... almost certainly incorrect. And I see people act that way on a level that rises to dangerous misinformation, even.
posted by atoxyl at 2:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
I also wouldn't mind if stores turned their "senior hours" into mask-mandatory hours for at least another year. Give people the option.
I just want to stress that I think this is an EXCELLENT idea.
I'm fully vaxxed, still wearing a mask in places where people are wearing masks because it feels polite.
posted by thivaia at 2:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
I just want to stress that I think this is an EXCELLENT idea.
I'm fully vaxxed, still wearing a mask in places where people are wearing masks because it feels polite.
posted by thivaia at 2:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
Masks are complete sensory hell. Good for you if they're no big deal, but some of us can't even wear collared shirts without freaking out, so. Yeah. This autistic is ready for it to be over, but is courteous of others and so will keep suffering until it is.
It’s funny: my own autistic reactions to wearing a mask mostly have been to enjoy the lack of needing to worry about “correctly” emoting/communicating with whatever my face is doing. No one expects me to be smiling or expressive. Just audible. I literally have had more anxiety about not wearing the mask than wearing it.
posted by bixfrankonis at 2:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [42 favorites]
It’s funny: my own autistic reactions to wearing a mask mostly have been to enjoy the lack of needing to worry about “correctly” emoting/communicating with whatever my face is doing. No one expects me to be smiling or expressive. Just audible. I literally have had more anxiety about not wearing the mask than wearing it.
posted by bixfrankonis at 2:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [42 favorites]
In the authors defense even Fauci has changed his tune of the possibility of a lab leak to, we need to look into this more seriously.
I don’t think it’s ever been an outlandish hypothesis and I don’t think it’s ever been a certainty, either, and it’s pretty irritating to me to see these massive swings in media hype one way or the other.
posted by atoxyl at 2:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
I don’t think it’s ever been an outlandish hypothesis and I don’t think it’s ever been a certainty, either, and it’s pretty irritating to me to see these massive swings in media hype one way or the other.
posted by atoxyl at 2:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Again, wear a mask while vaccinated as long as you want to to feel comfortable. I'll still be doing it in various situations where I think it might give people comfort. But I'm kind of astounded by how much smart people seem to...not be able to grasp what the relevant factors actually are to determining actual risk. Especially after a year in which we've learned so much.
I am reminded of that Brookings report a while back where they quantified the extent to which people on the right minimized the dangers of the virus, while people on the left exaggerated the dangers. These discussions seem to really bring that out.
Personally I'm going to keep wearing a mask where it is mandated and when it is the right thing socially, but I hate wearing them and am looking forward to needing to wear it less and less going forward.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
I am reminded of that Brookings report a while back where they quantified the extent to which people on the right minimized the dangers of the virus, while people on the left exaggerated the dangers. These discussions seem to really bring that out.
Personally I'm going to keep wearing a mask where it is mandated and when it is the right thing socially, but I hate wearing them and am looking forward to needing to wear it less and less going forward.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
It’s funny: my own autistic reactions to wearing a mask mostly have been to enjoy the lack of needing to worry about “correctly” emoting/communicating with whatever my face is doing. No one expects me to be smiling or expressive. Just audible. I literally have had more anxiety about not wearing the mask than wearing it.
For me it's the opposite. People get so worked up about tone, and I can no longer plaster a smile on my face and have that reassure people that I'm not a [insert sexist slur of your choice] just because my tone is flat. So since I'm often failing the prosody thing, I have to put extra work into what my eyes are doing, tilting my head, nodding, etc. But yeah, autistic experiences during the pandemic and in general are definitely really varied. "If you've met one autistic, you've met one autistic" etc.
posted by brook horse at 2:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
For me it's the opposite. People get so worked up about tone, and I can no longer plaster a smile on my face and have that reassure people that I'm not a [insert sexist slur of your choice] just because my tone is flat. So since I'm often failing the prosody thing, I have to put extra work into what my eyes are doing, tilting my head, nodding, etc. But yeah, autistic experiences during the pandemic and in general are definitely really varied. "If you've met one autistic, you've met one autistic" etc.
posted by brook horse at 2:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
But I'm kind of astounded by how much smart people seem to...not be able to grasp what the relevant factors actually are to determining actual risk.
Personally, I'm far more bothered than the ability for smart people to shrug aside the fact that wealthy countries having access to the vaccine means everyone can -- nay, should -- breathe a well earned sigh of relief on the way to brunch with their friends.
Vaccine apartheid is a real thing and the gap between wealthy and poor countries who are struggling with their own horrors is only going to go larger as the former decide to go back to "normal" and the latter are left to yesterday's (oh so depressing! Quit mentioning it, will you?) news.
Acknowledging that isn't living in "pandemic-movie narratives", it's living in the real world, where you don't get to stop caring about the less fortunate because Becky and Linda get to go to zumba classes without wearing a mask for the first time in a year. I'm sorry if that feels like a painful or difficult thing to realise, but it's true, and if we're truly going to embrace the gifts given to us by modern science, we also need to face the fact that salvation isn't a global reality.
posted by fight or flight at 2:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [26 favorites]
Personally, I'm far more bothered than the ability for smart people to shrug aside the fact that wealthy countries having access to the vaccine means everyone can -- nay, should -- breathe a well earned sigh of relief on the way to brunch with their friends.
Vaccine apartheid is a real thing and the gap between wealthy and poor countries who are struggling with their own horrors is only going to go larger as the former decide to go back to "normal" and the latter are left to yesterday's (oh so depressing! Quit mentioning it, will you?) news.
Acknowledging that isn't living in "pandemic-movie narratives", it's living in the real world, where you don't get to stop caring about the less fortunate because Becky and Linda get to go to zumba classes without wearing a mask for the first time in a year. I'm sorry if that feels like a painful or difficult thing to realise, but it's true, and if we're truly going to embrace the gifts given to us by modern science, we also need to face the fact that salvation isn't a global reality.
posted by fight or flight at 2:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [26 favorites]
Because seeing a mask is a visible reminder that the pandemic is still here and that the death toll continues to rise. That's an upsetting realization...
I don't think it's good to pander to people for whom reality is upsetting and choose not to accept it.
posted by meowzilla at 2:31 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
I don't think it's good to pander to people for whom reality is upsetting and choose not to accept it.
posted by meowzilla at 2:31 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
Cases in the area where I live are on the rise, the vaccine I've been given (one of two doses of) possibly offers somewhat iffy protection against the fastest rising variant in the country, herd immunity has not been reached, and while hospitalizations and deaths are currently down (which is wonderful!) they are still nowhere near as low as they were at the end of last summer, when I did indeed judge it safe to ease up on precautions for a while.
I mean, yes, absolutely, vaccines are here, there will come a point when this will end, that's great, but... maybe don't accuse me of living in some kind of anti-scientific cloud cuckoo land for wanting to wait a while to see whether this new rapidly spreading variant might be a problem?
posted by kyrademon at 2:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
I mean, yes, absolutely, vaccines are here, there will come a point when this will end, that's great, but... maybe don't accuse me of living in some kind of anti-scientific cloud cuckoo land for wanting to wait a while to see whether this new rapidly spreading variant might be a problem?
posted by kyrademon at 2:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
I honestly just feel a huge amount of empathy for where everyone is at. There are still unknowns and we're all fucking traumatized.
I went from being a mask skeptic (let us look back with honesty: the vast majority of us dismissed masks in early 2020) to having a screaming fight with someone who didn't have his nose covered in the grocery store in August to feeling some irritation with having to mask now.
We're all presenting rational arguments, but our emotions are a big influence on how we are making these decisions, and we've all been through a mass traumatic event, and our emotions are intense right now.
The way I read the science:
- I see no point in masking outdoors so I don't unless I feel I'm causing others stress by not masking outdoors, in which case I pull my mask up.
- At the grocery store or in indoor spaces with strangers I mask because the greatest risk is the workers (food workers died at grater rates than any other industry!)
- At work I now pull my mask down when in office with only vaccinated coworkers because we're all vaccinated and being masked all day and while on phone is pretty miserable.
posted by latkes at 2:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
I went from being a mask skeptic (let us look back with honesty: the vast majority of us dismissed masks in early 2020) to having a screaming fight with someone who didn't have his nose covered in the grocery store in August to feeling some irritation with having to mask now.
We're all presenting rational arguments, but our emotions are a big influence on how we are making these decisions, and we've all been through a mass traumatic event, and our emotions are intense right now.
The way I read the science:
- I see no point in masking outdoors so I don't unless I feel I'm causing others stress by not masking outdoors, in which case I pull my mask up.
- At the grocery store or in indoor spaces with strangers I mask because the greatest risk is the workers (food workers died at grater rates than any other industry!)
- At work I now pull my mask down when in office with only vaccinated coworkers because we're all vaccinated and being masked all day and while on phone is pretty miserable.
posted by latkes at 2:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Also, I've seen this being often called a "once in a century pandemic". So, if "IT" is over or going to be over, do some people believe they won't see another pandemic in their lifetimes? This is a very important distinction, because for some it means there's much less need to plan and prepare for the next one.
posted by FJT at 2:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by FJT at 2:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
Also, I've seen this being often called a "once in a century pandemic". So, if "IT" is over or going to be over, do some people believe they won't see another pandemic in their lifetimes? This is a very important distinction, because for some it means there's much less need to plan and prepare for the next one.
That sounds like the gambler's fallacy to me. There's just as much chance of another pandemic occurring this century as there would have been had COVID not happened.
posted by nosewings at 2:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
That sounds like the gambler's fallacy to me. There's just as much chance of another pandemic occurring this century as there would have been had COVID not happened.
posted by nosewings at 2:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [20 favorites]
A "once in a century" pandemic is not a real thing. What we're having is a "once in a century, so far" pandemic.
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:54 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:54 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
It's the worst pandemic we've had in about a century, is really the only definitive thing you can say along these lines. But the world's different this century than it was last century, and who knows. Certainly we have "very rare" weather all the dang time these days.
posted by aubilenon at 2:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by aubilenon at 2:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
My tried-and-true method for determining how cautious to be about COVID: see what the current predominant position is on Metafilter, and dial down precautions about 25% from that.
posted by primethyme at 2:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [24 favorites]
posted by primethyme at 2:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [24 favorites]
There's just as much chance of another pandemic occurring this century as there would have been had COVID not happened.--nosewings
We'll have a lot better idea of what to do for the next one, just as many Asian countries had a good idea of what to do when Covid hit, because they had experienced previous MERS and SARS-1 outbreaks, whereas US and Europe (and WHO and CDC) were clueless for a while. If another one comes in our lifetime, we'll be masking and distancing in no time.
Asian countries didn't have vaccines with these previous outbreaks, though, which might explained why they (except for China) remain at very low vaccination rates. Even those countries have learned something new this time around.
I'm still amazed that the 30 year development of mRNA vaccines came to fruition just in time. It supposedly started with Katalin Karikó in Hungary in the 1990s. They were actually working on mRNA vaccines for MERS and SARS-1 outbreaks, but those diseases fizzled out before they were needed. But that development got them ready for when Covid-19 hit. Vaccine development now is more advanced than it has ever been in history.
posted by eye of newt at 3:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
We'll have a lot better idea of what to do for the next one, just as many Asian countries had a good idea of what to do when Covid hit, because they had experienced previous MERS and SARS-1 outbreaks, whereas US and Europe (and WHO and CDC) were clueless for a while. If another one comes in our lifetime, we'll be masking and distancing in no time.
Asian countries didn't have vaccines with these previous outbreaks, though, which might explained why they (except for China) remain at very low vaccination rates. Even those countries have learned something new this time around.
I'm still amazed that the 30 year development of mRNA vaccines came to fruition just in time. It supposedly started with Katalin Karikó in Hungary in the 1990s. They were actually working on mRNA vaccines for MERS and SARS-1 outbreaks, but those diseases fizzled out before they were needed. But that development got them ready for when Covid-19 hit. Vaccine development now is more advanced than it has ever been in history.
posted by eye of newt at 3:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
Isn’t that expected from an exponential decline?
Yes, I graphed the current case trends in my area recently and it's nearly perfect exponential decay. Just a perfectly straight line on a log-linear plot, I think Excel calculated an R-squared >.99. It seemed to be halving about every two weeks.
(I'm not a statistician, I'm not your statistician, this is not statistical advice...)
posted by BungaDunga at 3:06 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
Yes, I graphed the current case trends in my area recently and it's nearly perfect exponential decay. Just a perfectly straight line on a log-linear plot, I think Excel calculated an R-squared >.99. It seemed to be halving about every two weeks.
(I'm not a statistician, I'm not your statistician, this is not statistical advice...)
posted by BungaDunga at 3:06 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
I'll put it this way: I'm saving my masks forever, not burning them in a bonfire. It sounds like another pandemic could break out again in at least our lifetimes, assuming we survive this one.
There's no way of knowing that a given maskless person has been vaccinated,
I'm happy to prove mine:
(a) I wear a pin saying I'm vaccinated whenever I leave the house. Though sure, I could lie.
(b) I have my vax card on a lanyard, which I can and do wear in public sometimes. Or pull it out for proof/Krispy Kremes.
(c) I have a photo of the vax card on my phone.
(d) WE COULD HAVE SOME VACCINE PASSPORTS. THAT WOULD BE NICE IF SOMEONE WOULD DO THAT. I am in agreement with almost everything the Biden administration is doing, but the whole "nope, we're not gonna even try to have them" I disagree with most strongly.
I'm happy to prove/discuss my vaccination at the slightest opportunity if it makes anyone else around me feel better.
I'm confused on the mask topic. Now that I'm all clear, I've gone from total paranoid agoraphobic to "party on Wayne, party on Garth" as of last night. Guess we'll see if that bites me in the ass.
Outdoors: I'm generally going without if I'm away from people. I put my mask back on the other day when I decided to walk through downtown and there were hordes of people out.
Shops, doctor's office: Wearing one.
Indoors in a restaurant: wearing one when not consuming food (I concur that seems kind of pointless in reality, but I'll do it).
Outdoor restaurant: I have given up on wearing them entirely in the outdoor restaurant I've been to. They have you put on masks when you go into the building to get your takeout, though.
I nth that I don't want to come off as an uncaring Republican who wants everyone to die by showing my face, but I am trying to figure out the compromise between that and "I said I'd follow the CDC guidelines" and working on my own recovery from agoraphobic crazy who's afraid of everyone else. It won't matter in a few weeks anyway what I or anyone else does, mind you, but as long as it's a requirement in places, I'll do it at least to make other people feel better.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
There's no way of knowing that a given maskless person has been vaccinated,
I'm happy to prove mine:
(a) I wear a pin saying I'm vaccinated whenever I leave the house. Though sure, I could lie.
(b) I have my vax card on a lanyard, which I can and do wear in public sometimes. Or pull it out for proof/Krispy Kremes.
(c) I have a photo of the vax card on my phone.
(d) WE COULD HAVE SOME VACCINE PASSPORTS. THAT WOULD BE NICE IF SOMEONE WOULD DO THAT. I am in agreement with almost everything the Biden administration is doing, but the whole "nope, we're not gonna even try to have them" I disagree with most strongly.
I'm happy to prove/discuss my vaccination at the slightest opportunity if it makes anyone else around me feel better.
I'm confused on the mask topic. Now that I'm all clear, I've gone from total paranoid agoraphobic to "party on Wayne, party on Garth" as of last night. Guess we'll see if that bites me in the ass.
Outdoors: I'm generally going without if I'm away from people. I put my mask back on the other day when I decided to walk through downtown and there were hordes of people out.
Shops, doctor's office: Wearing one.
Indoors in a restaurant: wearing one when not consuming food (I concur that seems kind of pointless in reality, but I'll do it).
Outdoor restaurant: I have given up on wearing them entirely in the outdoor restaurant I've been to. They have you put on masks when you go into the building to get your takeout, though.
I nth that I don't want to come off as an uncaring Republican who wants everyone to die by showing my face, but I am trying to figure out the compromise between that and "I said I'd follow the CDC guidelines" and working on my own recovery from agoraphobic crazy who's afraid of everyone else. It won't matter in a few weeks anyway what I or anyone else does, mind you, but as long as it's a requirement in places, I'll do it at least to make other people feel better.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Yeah, what everyone said after my initial comment was pretty much what I was thinking. I'm afraid that declaring that "it's over" will both lead to some people being misinformed that there won't be another pandemic for a while, but also lead to actual bad faith actors distorting things and saying there's no need to spend money or time on pandemic preparation because we've already had a major pandemic. it sounds ridiculous, but seeing the kinds of arguments against climate change used and actually work makes me not want to give any ground on this at all.
I'd much rather treat this stuff more like an earthquake or a hurricane. Yes, this one is over or will eventually be over, but do not throw your masks and other pandemic-related things away, put everything in a kit because there will be a next one.
posted by FJT at 3:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'd much rather treat this stuff more like an earthquake or a hurricane. Yes, this one is over or will eventually be over, but do not throw your masks and other pandemic-related things away, put everything in a kit because there will be a next one.
posted by FJT at 3:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
Everyone for a year loudly announcing they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves suddenly is surprised by people pointing out they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves.
Not wearing a mask now and not wearing a mask 6 months ago are entirely different decisions. Luckily I’m not concerned about who thinks I’m MAGA for not wearing a mask when it’s not indicated, because anyone that out of touch with the science is not someone I delegate my decision making to. I suggest not giving in to bullies on either side.
As for whether it’s immoral to be excited to see your friends for brunch because people are suffering elsewhere, I have bad news for you about enjoying yourself in general. There’s not going to be a time when you’re not a selfish knob for it, by that definition.
posted by stoneandstar at 3:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [32 favorites]
Not wearing a mask now and not wearing a mask 6 months ago are entirely different decisions. Luckily I’m not concerned about who thinks I’m MAGA for not wearing a mask when it’s not indicated, because anyone that out of touch with the science is not someone I delegate my decision making to. I suggest not giving in to bullies on either side.
As for whether it’s immoral to be excited to see your friends for brunch because people are suffering elsewhere, I have bad news for you about enjoying yourself in general. There’s not going to be a time when you’re not a selfish knob for it, by that definition.
posted by stoneandstar at 3:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [32 favorites]
Acknowledging that isn't living in "pandemic-movie narratives", it's living in the real world, where you don't get to stop caring about the less fortunate because Becky and Linda get to go to zumba classes without wearing a mask for the first time in a year.
And this is just moving to a different narrative, where the most elaborate demonstrations of caring are the most meritorious, regardless of efficacy.
Wear your mask all you want in America (the article is explicitly about the U.S.). Take whatever precautions you like. It makes no difference whatsoever to whether people are dying in India. The idea that because you don't wear a mask when you have no reasonable expectation of transmitting the virus you don't "care about the less fortunate" just doesn't hold up.
Unless things change radically, the pandemic is going to be over in the U.S. before most other countries. It's a fact. It's a fact premised on vast global inequity. No one has to like it. I don't. But pretending not to notice really isn't going to help. I'm sorry if it upsets you that I am in fact quite relieved that my elderly mother living alone, and all the non-English-speaking senior citizens ekeing out modest lives in rent-controlled apartments in my neighborhood, are now probably safe from dying an awful death. I'm also sorry if your experience of people is so poor that you simply don't know anyone capable of both being relieved for their personal safety and being concerned about others' well-being, but I can't help that. We exist.
posted by praemunire at 3:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
And this is just moving to a different narrative, where the most elaborate demonstrations of caring are the most meritorious, regardless of efficacy.
Wear your mask all you want in America (the article is explicitly about the U.S.). Take whatever precautions you like. It makes no difference whatsoever to whether people are dying in India. The idea that because you don't wear a mask when you have no reasonable expectation of transmitting the virus you don't "care about the less fortunate" just doesn't hold up.
Unless things change radically, the pandemic is going to be over in the U.S. before most other countries. It's a fact. It's a fact premised on vast global inequity. No one has to like it. I don't. But pretending not to notice really isn't going to help. I'm sorry if it upsets you that I am in fact quite relieved that my elderly mother living alone, and all the non-English-speaking senior citizens ekeing out modest lives in rent-controlled apartments in my neighborhood, are now probably safe from dying an awful death. I'm also sorry if your experience of people is so poor that you simply don't know anyone capable of both being relieved for their personal safety and being concerned about others' well-being, but I can't help that. We exist.
posted by praemunire at 3:17 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
WE COULD HAVE SOME VACCINE PASSPORTS. THAT WOULD BE NICE IF SOMEONE WOULD DO THAT. I am in agreement with almost everything the Biden administration is doing, but the whole "nope, we're not gonna even try to have them" I disagree with most strongly.-- jenfullmoon
Jimmy Carter was one of the most brilliant leaders, but a terrible politician. He refused to play politics and as a result almost none of his great ideas got any traction with Congress.
Biden appears to me to be a good politician with a sixth sense of what the public will accept. He won't do something just because "it is the right thing to do" when doing so is likely to fail and hurt everything else he's trying to accomplish. A US vaccine passport is something the public is going to have to go to Congress and ask for and I just don't see this happening in this political climate. It is happening a bit on the local level (New York worked with IBM to create a digital vaccine passport for events in that state).
posted by eye of newt at 3:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Jimmy Carter was one of the most brilliant leaders, but a terrible politician. He refused to play politics and as a result almost none of his great ideas got any traction with Congress.
Biden appears to me to be a good politician with a sixth sense of what the public will accept. He won't do something just because "it is the right thing to do" when doing so is likely to fail and hurt everything else he's trying to accomplish. A US vaccine passport is something the public is going to have to go to Congress and ask for and I just don't see this happening in this political climate. It is happening a bit on the local level (New York worked with IBM to create a digital vaccine passport for events in that state).
posted by eye of newt at 3:19 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
There are a lot of other unpleasant things that can be spread in small space and by sharing air. I'm wearing a mask on transit for the rest of all time if I am sick, and around colleagues who love to come in with the flu and be heroes while passing their germs around.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 3:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by lesbiassparrow at 3:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
. I'm also sorry if your experience of people is so poor that you simply don't know anyone capable of both being relieved for their personal safety and being concerned about others' well-being, but I can't help that. We exist.
I'm sorry people on this site are subjected to this weird passive aggressive b.s. Like how the fuck is this kind of comment acceptable.
posted by polymodus at 3:37 PM on May 25, 2021 [27 favorites]
I'm sorry people on this site are subjected to this weird passive aggressive b.s. Like how the fuck is this kind of comment acceptable.
posted by polymodus at 3:37 PM on May 25, 2021 [27 favorites]
I got my second Moderna shot yesterday, and have the headache and sore arm to prove it right now. In two weeks, when I will be fully vaxxed and my protection should be at its highest, will I keep masking as often as I can? I sure will.
We live in a nation in which a substantial percentage of my fellow citizens are, in a word, brain-damaged. Their refusal to wear masks during a pandemic was a pretty good identifier for whom I should stay away from on a day-to-day basis, as clear of a red flag as a MAGA hat. Masks may have been theater to some extent, but even if their preventative properties are less than overwhelming, they're _something_ and a something that I greatly appreciate.
But an awful lot of people are going to be in a very big hurry to go straight back to cubicle farms and movie theaters and buffet-trough restaurants and bars and big indoor get-togethers as if Everything Is All Better Now and We Beat COVID and The Threat Is Over. And too many unknowns remain, and the best available information can change rapidly.
So if I'm in public, the mask is on. Because I don't know where you've been, and you don't know where I'VE been. I have an idea of how protected I am; I have no idea how protected YOU are. So... I'm playing it safe until there is a substantially longer period of time indicating that I don't need to any more.
posted by delfin at 3:43 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
We live in a nation in which a substantial percentage of my fellow citizens are, in a word, brain-damaged. Their refusal to wear masks during a pandemic was a pretty good identifier for whom I should stay away from on a day-to-day basis, as clear of a red flag as a MAGA hat. Masks may have been theater to some extent, but even if their preventative properties are less than overwhelming, they're _something_ and a something that I greatly appreciate.
But an awful lot of people are going to be in a very big hurry to go straight back to cubicle farms and movie theaters and buffet-trough restaurants and bars and big indoor get-togethers as if Everything Is All Better Now and We Beat COVID and The Threat Is Over. And too many unknowns remain, and the best available information can change rapidly.
So if I'm in public, the mask is on. Because I don't know where you've been, and you don't know where I'VE been. I have an idea of how protected I am; I have no idea how protected YOU are. So... I'm playing it safe until there is a substantially longer period of time indicating that I don't need to any more.
posted by delfin at 3:43 PM on May 25, 2021 [19 favorites]
I took every precaution during the pandemic. I felt lucky that I could minimize contact and risk to a huge degree. I felt that it was my responsibility to the grocery cashier and the grandparent they may have lived with. I was demoralized by the lack of care taken by so many in my community, and definitely bitter about how much unnecessary risk people were taking and the deaths it led to. I never felt that I was personally at high risk of a severe outcome, because statistically I wasn’t, but It was an obvious choice to protect the community.
Now that I am vaccinated, and we have a better idea of how little transmission happens outside, I am happy to not wear a mask where it is not required. I still wear it inside in places where there are people, etc.
I haven’t forgotten about people who can’t get vaccinated or the severity of the pandemic in other places. But I agree with comments upthread that there is very little reason to wear a mask if I am almost certainly not going to transmit the disease. I started wearing a mask because it seemed likely that it would help prevent spread. I continued wearing it when that was confirmed. I would start again if new data showed that vaccinated people should wear one. But I am fine with mostly not wearing one when my wearing it isn’t protecting anyone anymore.
posted by snofoam at 3:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
Now that I am vaccinated, and we have a better idea of how little transmission happens outside, I am happy to not wear a mask where it is not required. I still wear it inside in places where there are people, etc.
I haven’t forgotten about people who can’t get vaccinated or the severity of the pandemic in other places. But I agree with comments upthread that there is very little reason to wear a mask if I am almost certainly not going to transmit the disease. I started wearing a mask because it seemed likely that it would help prevent spread. I continued wearing it when that was confirmed. I would start again if new data showed that vaccinated people should wear one. But I am fine with mostly not wearing one when my wearing it isn’t protecting anyone anymore.
posted by snofoam at 3:45 PM on May 25, 2021 [10 favorites]
But is he?
Yes. As I said, he is technically accurate but also ignoring a bunch of political and social factors surrounding the pandemic when discussing what it actually means for the pandemic to be "over". meowzilla and snerson both described some of these other factors perhaps better than I did. But I wasn't talking about whether or not fucking mask wearing is scientifically prescribed in a given area, and if that's what you got out of my comment, then you really missed the point; and unnecessarily set off a divisive derail, unfortunately.
posted by eviemath at 3:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
Yes. As I said, he is technically accurate but also ignoring a bunch of political and social factors surrounding the pandemic when discussing what it actually means for the pandemic to be "over". meowzilla and snerson both described some of these other factors perhaps better than I did. But I wasn't talking about whether or not fucking mask wearing is scientifically prescribed in a given area, and if that's what you got out of my comment, then you really missed the point; and unnecessarily set off a divisive derail, unfortunately.
posted by eviemath at 3:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
If we're going to appeal to science, then it's worth considering the unknown-unknowns. A concrete example that I can think of is from PrEP. They showed that gay men on PrEP get 90%-ish protection from HIV. So in practice, most nurses will still recommend that you use a condom in addition. Whether you choose to do so becomes a personal as well as political issue.
So there are cases where high-tech medicine, like vaccines, are not silver bullets. Americans think of high tech as silver bullets for social problems.
What the CDC is ostensibly doing here is that it is recommending masks unnecessary without any claim that vaccine-based herd immunity has been reached. That would violate the precautionary principle.
posted by polymodus at 3:51 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
So there are cases where high-tech medicine, like vaccines, are not silver bullets. Americans think of high tech as silver bullets for social problems.
What the CDC is ostensibly doing here is that it is recommending masks unnecessary without any claim that vaccine-based herd immunity has been reached. That would violate the precautionary principle.
posted by polymodus at 3:51 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
What? They're making changes to mask wearing based on evidentiary science which tells us that people who are vaccinated are much less likely to contract the disease, much less likely to spread it, and much less likely to suffer severely if they contract it.
I think praemunire has been doing a good job of illustrating just how weird some of the reasoning being used here is.
posted by sagc at 3:54 PM on May 25, 2021 [13 favorites]
I think praemunire has been doing a good job of illustrating just how weird some of the reasoning being used here is.
posted by sagc at 3:54 PM on May 25, 2021 [13 favorites]
Take whatever precautions you like. It makes no difference whatsoever to whether people are dying in India.
Ah yes, once again the dial of acceptable discourse on Metafilter swings back to "if you're not talking about the US, you might as well be shouting into the void".
posted by fight or flight at 3:55 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
Ah yes, once again the dial of acceptable discourse on Metafilter swings back to "if you're not talking about the US, you might as well be shouting into the void".
posted by fight or flight at 3:55 PM on May 25, 2021 [12 favorites]
I will write one reply then I'm out of here--the problem with "Much Less Likely" is that it is not a scientific proposition. It is a vaguism. Herd immunity is, and is the only objective standard.
posted by polymodus at 3:55 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 3:55 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
fight or flight, this is a thread about the changes in the CDC regulations and how people are responding to them. What public health measures could the US put in place to influence COVID spread in India, for example?
If you want to have a conversation about vaccine distribution, I think that's a different thing altogether that's happening on a political level above the average person.
posted by sagc at 3:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
If you want to have a conversation about vaccine distribution, I think that's a different thing altogether that's happening on a political level above the average person.
posted by sagc at 3:56 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
polymodus, I'm really, really confused by what you're saying here. Do you not think the vaccine does anything?
posted by sagc at 3:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by sagc at 3:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
We'll have a lot better idea of what to do for the next one, just as many Asian countries had a good idea of what to do when Covid hit, because they had experienced previous MERS and SARS-1 outbreaks, whereas US and Europe (and WHO and CDC) were clueless for a while. If another one comes in our lifetime, we'll be masking and distancing in no time.
One hopes. People "in the know" will certainly have a better understanding of how to handle the next coronavirus pandemic (assuming it happens within this lifetime), and the CDC (assuming a competent, non-Trumpian administration) will definitely be able to give better and more consistent messaging. But if the political associations from this pandemic hold, we might see large groups of people continuing to refuse to wear masks and distance. Especially because people now have a better understanding of how long countermeasures have to be sustained -- I suspect that, at the beginning, a lot of people thought that they would only have to last a month or so.
They showed that gay men on PrEP get 90%-ish protection from HIV. So in practice, most nurses will still recommend that you use a condom.
The risk/reward calculation is different there, because contracting HIV is (on average) worse than contracting COVID.
Herd immunity is, and is the only objective standard.
The trouble is . . . this isn't entirely clear. "Herd immunity" is, first, a mathematical phenomenon. When you plug some numbers into some differential equations that make some assumptions, you find that a certain level of immunity forces R(t) to drop below 1. This corresponds in some way to the real world, but it's impossible to know exactly how, or exactly what numbers you need, and in what circumstances the divergence between the model and reality becomes meaningful. So I'm not sure it's entirely right to call herd immunity "objective", because it's the sort of thing that can never be positively or definitely ascertained.
posted by nosewings at 3:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
One hopes. People "in the know" will certainly have a better understanding of how to handle the next coronavirus pandemic (assuming it happens within this lifetime), and the CDC (assuming a competent, non-Trumpian administration) will definitely be able to give better and more consistent messaging. But if the political associations from this pandemic hold, we might see large groups of people continuing to refuse to wear masks and distance. Especially because people now have a better understanding of how long countermeasures have to be sustained -- I suspect that, at the beginning, a lot of people thought that they would only have to last a month or so.
They showed that gay men on PrEP get 90%-ish protection from HIV. So in practice, most nurses will still recommend that you use a condom.
The risk/reward calculation is different there, because contracting HIV is (on average) worse than contracting COVID.
Herd immunity is, and is the only objective standard.
The trouble is . . . this isn't entirely clear. "Herd immunity" is, first, a mathematical phenomenon. When you plug some numbers into some differential equations that make some assumptions, you find that a certain level of immunity forces R(t) to drop below 1. This corresponds in some way to the real world, but it's impossible to know exactly how, or exactly what numbers you need, and in what circumstances the divergence between the model and reality becomes meaningful. So I'm not sure it's entirely right to call herd immunity "objective", because it's the sort of thing that can never be positively or definitely ascertained.
posted by nosewings at 3:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
Herd immunity is no more or less objective than the studies that the CDC is basing their decisions on, that's for sure.
posted by sagc at 4:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by sagc at 4:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
praemunire, you know I'm a fan of yours and have been for ages, but if you really think we can't celebrate progress without showing a level of concern vulnerable folks, I think you're reading a lot of us wrong. I'm so VERY happy for my healthy, vaccinated community members who are beginning to see the end of this, and I'm grateful for everything people across the country have done to keep vulnerable people like me safe. I hate that we're in a weird transition period where we're putting pressure on vaccinated, proactive people to keep stepping up and taking precautions because we've asked so much of this group already. I think this transition period will ease up pretty quickly here in the US, region by region.
A year ago, Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick went on TV and said that we shouldn't have shutdowns at all because most people would be safe, we should keep a laser focus on getting back to normal, and it was perfectly normal and patriotic for vulnerable people age 70+ to sacrifice themselves for the good of our economy. And we were all horrified at this truly horrifying thing he said, and we were right to be horrified.
And now it's a year later, and we are all, every last one of us, exhausted from covid. It's uprooted everything, we all want our lives back, we all want stability. So we get this McNeil article, and his position isn't really all that different. Most people are safe. We all want to get back to normal and regain economic stability. We have some vulnerable people to consider but the best thing for us collectively is to keep moving.
For me, the hard bit to accept was the rather handwavey parenthetical paragraph where he mentions the 10 million immunocompromised people -- people with cancer, transplants, etc. who are waiting for the risk factors to subside. And it's kind of perfect that it's in parentheses because people like me feel generally parenthetical to this whole thing. The CDC guidance doesn't include us, we're asked to ask our doctors what we should be doing and our doctors inevitably guide us to take the most conservative path because there's much we don't yet know. At one point in December when we were reaching peak infection rates, my medical team asked me to administer my own injections at home (I hadn't the foggiest idea how to do that) because they didn't want me to risk even a brief hospital visit, even in an N95.
These kinds of illnesses are pretty isolating already, and with the removed mask mandates, we're obliged to isolate more after what's been a pretty scary and isolating year. And that's a bit of a hard kick when you're already down. Covid is coming to an end for lots of people, but for 10 million of us and our families (here in the US), we have a long way to go. It's like what bleep was saying above about being left out of a normal excursion out of consideration for her medically fragile husband: Too bad, so sad. And no one's ever going to say that to our faces. Well, maybe Lt Gov Dan Patrick would.
But those people who are stepping up to recommend masks etc at this point in support of people like me (the mortality/morbidity for patients like me is eyepopping), I truly appreciate their kindness. It's nice to be remembered when you're literally a parenthetical. It's a kind gesture.
On a personal level, whatever people do about masks doesn't matter to me at all anyore -- I'm neutral now. I'm completely isolating and not going anywhere at all because the risk in my state remains too high and I'm following my doctors' advice. I have friends who have offered to pick up things I would normally venture out to do myself, but mostly I just do without. But it's a luxury that not everyone has.
But I hope that people see the people opting for continued mask-wearing for what it is -- an attempt at kindness in some really uncertain times.
posted by mochapickle at 4:06 PM on May 25, 2021 [54 favorites]
A year ago, Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick went on TV and said that we shouldn't have shutdowns at all because most people would be safe, we should keep a laser focus on getting back to normal, and it was perfectly normal and patriotic for vulnerable people age 70+ to sacrifice themselves for the good of our economy. And we were all horrified at this truly horrifying thing he said, and we were right to be horrified.
And now it's a year later, and we are all, every last one of us, exhausted from covid. It's uprooted everything, we all want our lives back, we all want stability. So we get this McNeil article, and his position isn't really all that different. Most people are safe. We all want to get back to normal and regain economic stability. We have some vulnerable people to consider but the best thing for us collectively is to keep moving.
For me, the hard bit to accept was the rather handwavey parenthetical paragraph where he mentions the 10 million immunocompromised people -- people with cancer, transplants, etc. who are waiting for the risk factors to subside. And it's kind of perfect that it's in parentheses because people like me feel generally parenthetical to this whole thing. The CDC guidance doesn't include us, we're asked to ask our doctors what we should be doing and our doctors inevitably guide us to take the most conservative path because there's much we don't yet know. At one point in December when we were reaching peak infection rates, my medical team asked me to administer my own injections at home (I hadn't the foggiest idea how to do that) because they didn't want me to risk even a brief hospital visit, even in an N95.
These kinds of illnesses are pretty isolating already, and with the removed mask mandates, we're obliged to isolate more after what's been a pretty scary and isolating year. And that's a bit of a hard kick when you're already down. Covid is coming to an end for lots of people, but for 10 million of us and our families (here in the US), we have a long way to go. It's like what bleep was saying above about being left out of a normal excursion out of consideration for her medically fragile husband: Too bad, so sad. And no one's ever going to say that to our faces. Well, maybe Lt Gov Dan Patrick would.
But those people who are stepping up to recommend masks etc at this point in support of people like me (the mortality/morbidity for patients like me is eyepopping), I truly appreciate their kindness. It's nice to be remembered when you're literally a parenthetical. It's a kind gesture.
On a personal level, whatever people do about masks doesn't matter to me at all anyore -- I'm neutral now. I'm completely isolating and not going anywhere at all because the risk in my state remains too high and I'm following my doctors' advice. I have friends who have offered to pick up things I would normally venture out to do myself, but mostly I just do without. But it's a luxury that not everyone has.
But I hope that people see the people opting for continued mask-wearing for what it is -- an attempt at kindness in some really uncertain times.
posted by mochapickle at 4:06 PM on May 25, 2021 [54 favorites]
We had friends over for a cookout for the first time in many months this past weekend - maskless now, of course. We hugged and we sat close and leaned close into one another's space and arms and laughed out loud and it was glorious and redemptive and liberating. Two nights later I had to meet two right-leaning friends (vaxed) who are doing a shitload of delicious pro-bono design work (yes, this unicorn exists) for a longtime client of mine and when I offered to host in my home they instead suggested a local brewery. Ugh. We haven't been inside a restaurant or bar (or a grocery store for that matter) in 14 months (my wife had two stents installed in her heart two months before lockdown) - but following the notion of this piece I found. myself doing an agonizing reappraisal of my risk perceptions which, after checking the stats every single morning, are decidedly telling me my rigid restrictions can probably be safely, carefully eased. It was way weird walking in, and I still masked up when approaching the bar or the food counter 'cause they were masked and so were most of the patrons approaching, but in the great cavernous space of the former industrial space with its 30' ceilings and tables spread 8' apart it felt, well, surprisingly okay (shot through with a scintilla of nerves and second guessing). The setting is urban, the crowd upwardly mobile millennials, the odds I figured 75-80% vaxed - a low-enough risk setting for me to comply with my friends' request while seeing the dozens of hours of design they'd poured into the new branding. And now I wait - and if, after having also visited the hardware store and the drugstore and a few greenhouses over the last week, I don't experience any symptoms, well then I suspect my/our perceptions will adjust again and accordingly, and so it will go. Not careless, not caution to the wind - and always respecting the preponderance of the crowd we're around - but a series of small adjustments with no consequences will seemingly inevitably lead to greater freedoms. I'm simply not sure how anyone can expect it to be any other way .... (and my sincere respect for and deep empathy with all those for whom this isn't a current course forward).
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
this is a thread about the changes in the CDC regulations and how people are responding to them
This is also a thread about the concept of a global (not US-only) pandemic "ending". I didn't see a sign on the door saying that discussion of non-US topics isn't allowed, though if that's going to become a thing, perhaps the post could be tagged accordingly?
I appreciate that some USians on this site find it difficult to conceptualise the world beyond your borders, and maybe a moment or two of congratulations is warranted when your country has taken great strides in correcting the ways you've struggled with COVID (and other things) over the last year, but it would be great if we could also examine the fact "our Great National Misery" (as the article puts it) is, in fact, "our Great Global Misery". Is a reminder of the global nature of our community not a good lesson to take from this?
I apologise if any of this seems too negative for this post, but watching (some) folks in the US essentially throw "COVID is over" parties while certain parts of the rest of the world hit record numbers of deaths is a visual rather too pointed to ignore. As mochapickle wisely said, even for some folks in the US, COVID is not over, and may never be over.
It's impossible, actually, to "pretend not to notice" the fact that the US would prefer to move on and forget the pandemic. A quick glance at my social media tells that story pretty clearly. All I'm saying is that the "narrative" that COVID is still, actually, ravaging some parts of the world and that the full impact of the vaccine apartheid is yet to be felt is not, as you said, "pandemic-movie narrative". It's reality, for millions of people. Some of whom are users of the site and some of whom have family who use this site. So it would be great if that point could be made without passive-aggressive responses or being told to go elsewhere.
posted by fight or flight at 4:33 PM on May 25, 2021 [38 favorites]
This is also a thread about the concept of a global (not US-only) pandemic "ending". I didn't see a sign on the door saying that discussion of non-US topics isn't allowed, though if that's going to become a thing, perhaps the post could be tagged accordingly?
I appreciate that some USians on this site find it difficult to conceptualise the world beyond your borders, and maybe a moment or two of congratulations is warranted when your country has taken great strides in correcting the ways you've struggled with COVID (and other things) over the last year, but it would be great if we could also examine the fact "our Great National Misery" (as the article puts it) is, in fact, "our Great Global Misery". Is a reminder of the global nature of our community not a good lesson to take from this?
I apologise if any of this seems too negative for this post, but watching (some) folks in the US essentially throw "COVID is over" parties while certain parts of the rest of the world hit record numbers of deaths is a visual rather too pointed to ignore. As mochapickle wisely said, even for some folks in the US, COVID is not over, and may never be over.
It's impossible, actually, to "pretend not to notice" the fact that the US would prefer to move on and forget the pandemic. A quick glance at my social media tells that story pretty clearly. All I'm saying is that the "narrative" that COVID is still, actually, ravaging some parts of the world and that the full impact of the vaccine apartheid is yet to be felt is not, as you said, "pandemic-movie narrative". It's reality, for millions of people. Some of whom are users of the site and some of whom have family who use this site. So it would be great if that point could be made without passive-aggressive responses or being told to go elsewhere.
posted by fight or flight at 4:33 PM on May 25, 2021 [38 favorites]
EVERYBODY wants to move on and forget the pandemic. When a pandemic is no longer global, it’s no longer a pandemic. It’s grounding to remember that there are people for whom this isn’t over, but it’s also perfectly natural to feel joy and hope when fear and danger are receding.
I’m well aware it’s not over here in the US, either— this has been very real and personal for me in the last couple weeks. And yet, things are getting safer for those of us in the US. Expecting people not to feel gratitude (while also being capable of sympathy) is bizarre.
posted by stoneandstar at 4:40 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
I’m well aware it’s not over here in the US, either— this has been very real and personal for me in the last couple weeks. And yet, things are getting safer for those of us in the US. Expecting people not to feel gratitude (while also being capable of sympathy) is bizarre.
posted by stoneandstar at 4:40 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Again, fight or flight, what policy changes do you want? Redirect vaccines away from the US? A ban on enjoying yourself? People can be happy about something while still wanting better for people less fortunate than them.
I imagine some of the Americans you're arguing with also have family and friends in harder-hit parts of the world; I don't begrudge them a bit of joy in being unmasked and doing things?
And I say this as, again, a Canadian, who has been in a province that was as of ~2 weeks ago topping all US states in cases per 100 000 this whole time.
posted by sagc at 4:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
I imagine some of the Americans you're arguing with also have family and friends in harder-hit parts of the world; I don't begrudge them a bit of joy in being unmasked and doing things?
And I say this as, again, a Canadian, who has been in a province that was as of ~2 weeks ago topping all US states in cases per 100 000 this whole time.
posted by sagc at 4:41 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
A couple of things come to mind:
I'm not a physician or virologist, but it suggests to me that even vaccinated people should wear masks when around other people regardless of their vaccination status.
posted by phliar at 4:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
- I don't think we know that vaccination prevents infection. We know that it prevents serious disease.
- Every infection is a chance for the virus to mutate.
I'm not a physician or virologist, but it suggests to me that even vaccinated people should wear masks when around other people regardless of their vaccination status.
posted by phliar at 4:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
I ate at a salad bar today, sneeze guards and fresh plates on each trip, unchanged from pre-covid. Amazing how much things have changed, for me. I washed/aged my groceries/mail for 11 months. Including 3 months when I was aware the science seemed to say formite transmission was not a serious risk. I noticed they reused my cup for drink refills. I still have a finely tuned awareness of things that would have been a risk pre-vaccination, but I'm not triggering, I just notice and move on.
I'm not masking anywhere it's not required. I was surprised today, dropping my NIH covid-19 sterosurvey packet off (third and thankfully final round), that Walgreens was not requiring masks; I did not take mine out of my pocket. I did consider continuing to wear KN95s everywhere just to normalize it, but the fact is that in this red state, no more than 15% are ever going to make that choice, and all it would normalize is more division and more politicalization of science.
posted by joeyh at 4:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm not masking anywhere it's not required. I was surprised today, dropping my NIH covid-19 sterosurvey packet off (third and thankfully final round), that Walgreens was not requiring masks; I did not take mine out of my pocket. I did consider continuing to wear KN95s everywhere just to normalize it, but the fact is that in this red state, no more than 15% are ever going to make that choice, and all it would normalize is more division and more politicalization of science.
posted by joeyh at 4:46 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
phliar, read the link that Praemunire posted earlier here; there are actual physicians and virologists who do, actually, study this. You don't have to just guess!
posted by sagc at 4:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [14 favorites]
posted by sagc at 4:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [14 favorites]
I think at this point Maciej Cegłowski (Pinboard, Great Slate)'s thesis is going to hold true. Everything's aligned such that Memorial Day weekend is the end of public recognition of COVID in the US. 3-day weekend, people are going to be pushing to meet family & friends, there's enough business pressure with casinos & theme parks reopening June 1st...
There's no recorking this. For better and for worse, it'll be Someone Else's Problem(tm).
posted by CrystalDave at 4:51 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
There's no recorking this. For better and for worse, it'll be Someone Else's Problem(tm).
posted by CrystalDave at 4:51 PM on May 25, 2021 [9 favorites]
The pandemic isn't even close to being over in the US-- and I say that as someone who just got their 2nd dose today.
Here in NJ the mandate on /indoor mask wearing/ is being lifted this Friday.
Kids under 12 can't get a vaccine yet! The day were anyone over 18 or over qualified for a vaccine starting April 19th, and even adults that got one /that day/ won't be fully vaccinated yet.
Yes, there's the caveat that business are free to still require customers to wear masks... but in practicality that now means that service, food & retail employees will be stuck inside & now the burden of keeping themselves safe falls on their own shoulders instead of anything else? I mean, the grocery store I used to work at last year had the official policy that if someone insisted on shopping without a mask, we just had to strongly encourage the shopper to finish as fast as possible but there was nothing we could do.
"Essential workers" went from being heroes to an afterthought in months, and now it's the rest of society being treated that way too. And it fucking sucks.
posted by ShawnStruck at 5:12 PM on May 25, 2021 [28 favorites]
Here in NJ the mandate on /indoor mask wearing/ is being lifted this Friday.
Kids under 12 can't get a vaccine yet! The day were anyone over 18 or over qualified for a vaccine starting April 19th, and even adults that got one /that day/ won't be fully vaccinated yet.
Yes, there's the caveat that business are free to still require customers to wear masks... but in practicality that now means that service, food & retail employees will be stuck inside & now the burden of keeping themselves safe falls on their own shoulders instead of anything else? I mean, the grocery store I used to work at last year had the official policy that if someone insisted on shopping without a mask, we just had to strongly encourage the shopper to finish as fast as possible but there was nothing we could do.
"Essential workers" went from being heroes to an afterthought in months, and now it's the rest of society being treated that way too. And it fucking sucks.
posted by ShawnStruck at 5:12 PM on May 25, 2021 [28 favorites]
Reading this from a country that mandates mask wearing with a $300 immediate fine and we right now have a news story about a woman who refused to wear a mask (and turned up at her court date for yelling at the safe distancing officer without a mask!), the idea of not wearing a mask because it’s safe seems so incredibly nuts. It’s such a basic immediate step.
Some of our cases from the recent India-variant surge are infected vaccination people. Children are getting sick now. We have so many complied precautions and people are still getting sick. It’s like you’re sitting in a burned down house while there are fires blazing in your neighbourhood and you’re still playing with matches.
posted by dorothyisunderwood at 5:18 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
Some of our cases from the recent India-variant surge are infected vaccination people. Children are getting sick now. We have so many complied precautions and people are still getting sick. It’s like you’re sitting in a burned down house while there are fires blazing in your neighbourhood and you’re still playing with matches.
posted by dorothyisunderwood at 5:18 PM on May 25, 2021 [18 favorites]
I don't think we know that vaccination prevents infection. We know that it prevents serious disease.
"The vaccines were shown to be 90% effective in reducing the risk of any coronavirus infection."
(A study of essential workers who were tested regularly found the mRNA vaccines were 90% effective against any infection at all)
posted by BungaDunga at 5:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
"The vaccines were shown to be 90% effective in reducing the risk of any coronavirus infection."
(A study of essential workers who were tested regularly found the mRNA vaccines were 90% effective against any infection at all)
posted by BungaDunga at 5:20 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
Yes, immunity is much like that— sitting in a neighborhood where available kindling has been reduced to ash and playing with matches seems remarkably unlikely to start an out of control fire emergency.
posted by stoneandstar at 5:23 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by stoneandstar at 5:23 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
ShawnStruck, I've generally thought that Gov. Murphy was doing a decent job negotiating the scientific and political realities of the pandemic, at least since it became obvious how serious this was. But New Jersey dropping the indoor mask mandate now seems likes complete pandering. I hate that retail employees are now on the hook for enforcing any store-based mask mandate in a way they weren't before. Maybe we could get to this point in a few weeks if vaccination rates continued to climb, but the timing with Memorial Day weekend and the fact that Murphy is up for reelection in November just seems to be a bit too much.
posted by mollweide at 5:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by mollweide at 5:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
What I do not get is why some people wear one as virtue signaling or to avoid being seen as one party.
Because signals are an important way to say, "I see you, I value you, and I stand with you." They build community and solidarity. A lot of people are not vaccinated yet or cannot be vaccinated or may not be fully protected by the vaccine. People are also recovering from traumas, one of which was the very loud "I don't give a fuck about you" signals that public-facing workers have endured for the past year+. If people are still comforted by masking, why not signal to them that you care about their mental health? Why not show some generosity to people who need some time to adapt back to a maskless world? Why not signal to the immunocompromised and the people who are afraid to miss work for the vaccine that you know they're out there and you care about them? If you choose not to wear a mask, that's fine too (if you're vaccinated), but this judgment toward people who do is mystifying to me. Some Americans simply cannot cope with nuance or public shows of community.
posted by Mavri at 5:26 PM on May 25, 2021 [48 favorites]
Because signals are an important way to say, "I see you, I value you, and I stand with you." They build community and solidarity. A lot of people are not vaccinated yet or cannot be vaccinated or may not be fully protected by the vaccine. People are also recovering from traumas, one of which was the very loud "I don't give a fuck about you" signals that public-facing workers have endured for the past year+. If people are still comforted by masking, why not signal to them that you care about their mental health? Why not show some generosity to people who need some time to adapt back to a maskless world? Why not signal to the immunocompromised and the people who are afraid to miss work for the vaccine that you know they're out there and you care about them? If you choose not to wear a mask, that's fine too (if you're vaccinated), but this judgment toward people who do is mystifying to me. Some Americans simply cannot cope with nuance or public shows of community.
posted by Mavri at 5:26 PM on May 25, 2021 [48 favorites]
Everything's aligned such that Memorial Day weekend is the end of public recognition of COVID in the US. 3-day weekend, people are going to be pushing to meet family & friends, there's enough business pressure with casinos & theme parks reopening June 1st...
As someone who rewatched Jaws recently, why does this all sound so... familiar...
Mayor Vaughn: I'm only trying to say that the Jersey beaches are summer towns. We need summer dollars. Now, if the people can't swim here, they'll be glad to swim at the beaches of Cape Cod, the Hamptons, Long Island...
Brody: That doesn't mean we have to serve them up a viral smorgasbord.
posted by delfin at 5:28 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
As someone who rewatched Jaws recently, why does this all sound so... familiar...
Mayor Vaughn: I'm only trying to say that the Jersey beaches are summer towns. We need summer dollars. Now, if the people can't swim here, they'll be glad to swim at the beaches of Cape Cod, the Hamptons, Long Island...
Brody: That doesn't mean we have to serve them up a viral smorgasbord.
posted by delfin at 5:28 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
Apologies for beating a dead horse, but "90% effective in preventing infection" still means "10% chance of infection", no? (And I did read the link posted by praemunire.)
posted by phliar at 5:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by phliar at 5:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
In other words, we're dealing with probabilities, so every little bit helps. (I'm a math person.)
posted by phliar at 5:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by phliar at 5:34 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
"90% effective in preventing infection" still means "10% chance of infection", no?
It means that people who are vaccinated seem to become infected at 1/10th the rate of people who aren't. Well, at least in the people who were studied.
You actual chance of infection will depend on what you're asking- the chance that you get infected after a particular exposure? The chance you'll get infected ever? That will depend on stuff like how likely you are to be exposed, etc.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:38 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
It means that people who are vaccinated seem to become infected at 1/10th the rate of people who aren't. Well, at least in the people who were studied.
You actual chance of infection will depend on what you're asking- the chance that you get infected after a particular exposure? The chance you'll get infected ever? That will depend on stuff like how likely you are to be exposed, etc.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:38 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
Yeah, I was just going to say what BungaDunga did. Here's an article about what the numbers mentioned are generally actually measuring: https://globalnews.ca/news/7695075/coronavirus-vaccine-efficacy-versus-effectiveness/
posted by sagc at 5:40 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by sagc at 5:40 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
In other words, we're dealing with probabilities, so every little bit helps. (I'm a math person.)
About confidence intervals for the BioNTech/Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine candidate (Bayesian approach, part 2)
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:45 PM on May 25, 2021
About confidence intervals for the BioNTech/Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine candidate (Bayesian approach, part 2)
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:45 PM on May 25, 2021
Mod note: A few comments removed. The pandemic has been a long, awful haul and it's not over yet, and none of us have control over the large scale details of how it has and how it will continue to play out. What we do have control over is how we treat one another here, on this site, in this community. So please exercise your capacity to be kind to one another and to not let your frustration with the world spill over into tut-tutting or hostility or anything else unnecessary to these conversations. There's room for a pretty broad spectrum of valid feelings and fears and hope and risk assessment to coexist and differ from person to person and context to context; we're not having a battle royale here for the one take that will rule them all.
posted by cortex (staff) at 5:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 5:59 PM on May 25, 2021 [29 favorites]
My concern is not whether not I am at some risk; for me the risk is small enough to be ignored. My concern is that one mutation is all it would take, so driving the small number even smaller is a benefit to society.
I am happy to bow out now. Cheers!
posted by phliar at 6:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
I am happy to bow out now. Cheers!
posted by phliar at 6:01 PM on May 25, 2021 [6 favorites]
FWIW, this thread’s been cleaned up to the point where much of the remaining conversation no longer makes sense. @phliar – I don’t think any of these (remaining) comments were aimed at you.
posted by schmod at 6:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by schmod at 6:15 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
As a trained physicist, I am very aware just how important it is to know your assumptions when you are doing your calculations. Otherwise, you don't actually know what all the math you are doing means.
All these risk calculations for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are based on the assumption that the effectiveness of the vaccine does not change over time.
The thing is, we know this is a bad assumption. We know that there are COVID variants out there that are more resistant to the vaccines than when they were developed and tested. And because they will grow faster when people are vaccinated, they will sooner or later become the most dominant variants encountered.
Everybody's just hoping that it's a good enough assumption anyway and the vaccines will work good enough against even the new variants because nobody wants to deal with the alternative right now.
Te more people on the planet that have COVID, the more chances there are of a more vaccine-resistant and faster spreading variant is going to appear. So It really isn't over until everyone's safe.
Honestly the biggest thing in the US isn't going to be whether you are wearing a mask right now. The bigger thing is keeping pressure on American politicians to pitch in and put real money towards getting the rest of the world vaccinated.
But don't imply anyone's stupid or irrational for wearing a mask. It might be safe enough to skip the precautions that inconvenience you, but there's really no reason to skip the ones that don't.
posted by Zalzidrax at 6:25 PM on May 25, 2021 [32 favorites]
All these risk calculations for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are based on the assumption that the effectiveness of the vaccine does not change over time.
The thing is, we know this is a bad assumption. We know that there are COVID variants out there that are more resistant to the vaccines than when they were developed and tested. And because they will grow faster when people are vaccinated, they will sooner or later become the most dominant variants encountered.
Everybody's just hoping that it's a good enough assumption anyway and the vaccines will work good enough against even the new variants because nobody wants to deal with the alternative right now.
Te more people on the planet that have COVID, the more chances there are of a more vaccine-resistant and faster spreading variant is going to appear. So It really isn't over until everyone's safe.
Honestly the biggest thing in the US isn't going to be whether you are wearing a mask right now. The bigger thing is keeping pressure on American politicians to pitch in and put real money towards getting the rest of the world vaccinated.
But don't imply anyone's stupid or irrational for wearing a mask. It might be safe enough to skip the precautions that inconvenience you, but there's really no reason to skip the ones that don't.
posted by Zalzidrax at 6:25 PM on May 25, 2021 [32 favorites]
Sympathy with the traumatized aside (which I support on its own grounds, and loved to see so well articulated here), I also continue to wear a mask from a strictly rational point of view. If I'm out and about with my kid and want to go into a store, if I see someone unmasked in there I won't go in because there is a decent chance that that person is unvaccinated and a small chance that that person is currently infectious. But if I look in through the window and everyone is masked, then I know that all potentially contagious people are guarded. Extending that logic to everyone else who is unvaccinated or unprotected against their choice -- children, the immune-compromised, a decent percentage of the old, etc -- I wear a mask whenever I'm indoors because I want to reassure whoever looks in that there is zero chance that there is a contagious unmasked person in there. I am perfectly able to calculate these odds, know they they are low, and know that even so the odds are above the risk tolerance of a large number of unprotected people. So I take the zero-cost option that allays their entirely rational risk aversion based on the small probability that an observed unmasked person is in fact not vaccinated, and wear a mask indoors.
posted by chortly at 6:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
posted by chortly at 6:29 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
We know that there are COVID variants out there that are more resistant to the vaccines than when they were developed and tested. And because they will grow faster when people are vaccinated
?
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
?
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:30 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
(With lots of people vaccinated, vaccine-resistant variants have more people to spread into than original COVID19 does, tiny frying pan.)
posted by clew at 6:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by clew at 6:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
I don't really care about the mask debate, but I think it's insane to write a piece about the pandemic being almost over when worldwide case numbers in 2021 already outnumber cases in 2020. I think it's a bad idea to be rushing for the exit when there are still large pools of a deadly pathogen sloshing about in the petri-dish of a partially vaccinated population, workshopping its vaccine resistance.
Two-thirds of epidemiologists warn mutations could render current COVID vaccines ineffective in a year or less. Perhaps the odds of that happening are small. Certainly the burdens of lockdown, illness, and death are unbearable. But that's exactly the point. A small probability of severe harm is still a large risk. I should think the events of the past year warrant prudence.
posted by dmh at 6:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [33 favorites]
Two-thirds of epidemiologists warn mutations could render current COVID vaccines ineffective in a year or less. Perhaps the odds of that happening are small. Certainly the burdens of lockdown, illness, and death are unbearable. But that's exactly the point. A small probability of severe harm is still a large risk. I should think the events of the past year warrant prudence.
posted by dmh at 6:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [33 favorites]
I should think the events of the past year warrant prudence.
From a location that followed an elimination strategy: there are a variety of forms that prudence could take. Regular asymptomatic testing, especially of newly arrived people, quarantine periods for people arriving from outside, wastewater testing in towns that are large enough to have town wastewater treatment systems, and similar monitoring options are all good ways to help catch any new cases quickly and prevent wider outbreaks (though more regular, even if not universal, indoor mask usage is certainly easy and can also help prevent any breakthrough infections from gaining a foothold). Ongoing physical distancing is of course also quite effective, but at some point, which some parts of the US may soon reach, the (mental) health risks of that do outweigh the collective health risks due to the pandemic. But yeah. If Mefites in the US think that the pandemic will stop being a (global) pandemic once the US gets it under control, I have some potentially distressing news for you from all of us places around the world that did successfully eliminate covid-19 locally (two or more times, in most cases). And no, your mask-wearing habits won't make a difference to the course of the pandemic in other countries, or even other counties perhaps. But your thoughtfulness and compassion in how you talk about the pandemic does make a positive difference for those of us here on Metafilter who don't live in the US. And encouraging everyone you know in the US to ensure that the considerable (diminished, but still considerable despite Trump's best efforts) economic and political resources of the US are also brought to bear on helping to actually end the pandemic globally will of course be very helpful. Those are the two things that you, in this thread, can do that make a significant difference!
posted by eviemath at 7:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
From a location that followed an elimination strategy: there are a variety of forms that prudence could take. Regular asymptomatic testing, especially of newly arrived people, quarantine periods for people arriving from outside, wastewater testing in towns that are large enough to have town wastewater treatment systems, and similar monitoring options are all good ways to help catch any new cases quickly and prevent wider outbreaks (though more regular, even if not universal, indoor mask usage is certainly easy and can also help prevent any breakthrough infections from gaining a foothold). Ongoing physical distancing is of course also quite effective, but at some point, which some parts of the US may soon reach, the (mental) health risks of that do outweigh the collective health risks due to the pandemic. But yeah. If Mefites in the US think that the pandemic will stop being a (global) pandemic once the US gets it under control, I have some potentially distressing news for you from all of us places around the world that did successfully eliminate covid-19 locally (two or more times, in most cases). And no, your mask-wearing habits won't make a difference to the course of the pandemic in other countries, or even other counties perhaps. But your thoughtfulness and compassion in how you talk about the pandemic does make a positive difference for those of us here on Metafilter who don't live in the US. And encouraging everyone you know in the US to ensure that the considerable (diminished, but still considerable despite Trump's best efforts) economic and political resources of the US are also brought to bear on helping to actually end the pandemic globally will of course be very helpful. Those are the two things that you, in this thread, can do that make a significant difference!
posted by eviemath at 7:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [11 favorites]
i really have to wonder if people are jumping the gun here - aside from the very real economic effects, i don't really know that this pandemic is over - how many times have we seen infections decline only to rise again? - are we going to end up with part of the population immunized while the rest of the population that refuses the vaccine ends up building herd immunity the hard way? - and in that process isn't it possible that a new mutation develops that the vaccine doesn't prevent?
oh, and if we did get an outbreak of something much much worse - well, i'd rather not think or talk about it except to say i don't think people are going to be handling it very well
posted by pyramid termite at 7:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
oh, and if we did get an outbreak of something much much worse - well, i'd rather not think or talk about it except to say i don't think people are going to be handling it very well
posted by pyramid termite at 7:07 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
are we going to end up with part of the population immunized while the rest of the population that refuses the vaccine ends up building herd immunity the hard way? - and in that process isn't it possible that a new mutation develops that the vaccine doesn't prevent?
It’s a pretty good bet that viral evolution will reduce the effectiveness of existing vaccines/previous infection eventually. I’m not even sure that domestic unvaccinated population (in the U.S.) is the big concern for where this evolution would be going on, so much as in the parts of the world where this thing is still spreading like wildfire. In fact there are already variants against which existing antibodies are probably somewhat less effective. But:
a.) the existing vaccines produce tons of antibodies to start out, and do seem to engage mechanisms of longer-term immunity, so some evasion doesn’t mean they don’t still work pretty well
b.) the baseline risk reduction for severe disease is even higher than for infection overall
c.) the variants that evade immunity are not necessarily the same ones that are otherwise the most “competitive”/effectively transmitted
d.) as I said, everybody should be anticipating the possibility that a booster shot may be required at some point. There is qualitatively a huge difference between life before any shot existed and afterwards.
posted by atoxyl at 7:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
It’s a pretty good bet that viral evolution will reduce the effectiveness of existing vaccines/previous infection eventually. I’m not even sure that domestic unvaccinated population (in the U.S.) is the big concern for where this evolution would be going on, so much as in the parts of the world where this thing is still spreading like wildfire. In fact there are already variants against which existing antibodies are probably somewhat less effective. But:
a.) the existing vaccines produce tons of antibodies to start out, and do seem to engage mechanisms of longer-term immunity, so some evasion doesn’t mean they don’t still work pretty well
b.) the baseline risk reduction for severe disease is even higher than for infection overall
c.) the variants that evade immunity are not necessarily the same ones that are otherwise the most “competitive”/effectively transmitted
d.) as I said, everybody should be anticipating the possibility that a booster shot may be required at some point. There is qualitatively a huge difference between life before any shot existed and afterwards.
posted by atoxyl at 7:24 PM on May 25, 2021 [8 favorites]
I think it is pretty interesting to see how much of our attitudes are emotional or subjective. There is uncertainty and institutions that should be providing expert guidance have been wrong repeatedly over the past year. I have definitely followed what felt right to me, while not being an expert. Masking seemed to clearly be worthwhile long before it was officially recommended by CDC and WHO, so I started early. Now I am carefully following guidance that I am safe after vaccination, but I can also see why people would be skeptical about their current recommendations. I think decisions end up being based on many factors, from stuff like personal risk tolerance to community-mindedness to trust in institutions to social pressures.
posted by snofoam at 7:33 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by snofoam at 7:33 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
.A US vaccine passport is something the public is going to have to go to Congress and ask for and I just don't see this happening in this political climate.
Yeah, I get why he isn't going for it, but it's still a bad idea even if it's not politically reasonable because of the you-know-who's out there. NY State at least has the right idea. We'll see if CA chimes in.
All I know for me is that after getting fully vaccinated I don't feel like I can keep on living in a state of double-masking, KN95+filter+cloth, afraid-to-get-near-people any more like I was. That shit is exhausting. I would rather put down that giant worry burden for a bit if I can, which so far the CDC seems to think I can right now. Until the variants murder us all, anyway, but I find myself unable to keep up the same level of screaming paranoia I used to have any more, especially indefinitely.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:03 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I get why he isn't going for it, but it's still a bad idea even if it's not politically reasonable because of the you-know-who's out there. NY State at least has the right idea. We'll see if CA chimes in.
All I know for me is that after getting fully vaccinated I don't feel like I can keep on living in a state of double-masking, KN95+filter+cloth, afraid-to-get-near-people any more like I was. That shit is exhausting. I would rather put down that giant worry burden for a bit if I can, which so far the CDC seems to think I can right now. Until the variants murder us all, anyway, but I find myself unable to keep up the same level of screaming paranoia I used to have any more, especially indefinitely.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:03 PM on May 25, 2021 [3 favorites]
I have to admit, part of my reluctance to remove my mask, return to work, return to "normal" is that what was considered a rational, scientific response in other countries that had short pandemic periods was considered "emotional" and "over-reacting" here in the States.
People are just gaslighting the fuck out of those of us who have decided to be prudent, and so I'm just really fucking tired of the "tear off the bandaid" logic.
The pandemic WILL end, yes. But the pandemic will end sooner if we stop preemptively assuming it's ALREADY over.
posted by explosion at 8:08 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
People are just gaslighting the fuck out of those of us who have decided to be prudent, and so I'm just really fucking tired of the "tear off the bandaid" logic.
The pandemic WILL end, yes. But the pandemic will end sooner if we stop preemptively assuming it's ALREADY over.
posted by explosion at 8:08 PM on May 25, 2021 [36 favorites]
I find it amazing how lonely it is to be the parent of a elementary school-aged child right now. I mean, I felt much lonelier during maternity leave when we were isolating at home due to the risk of regular flu viruses killing my premature, medically-complex infant. But I am surprised that I am so surprised right now. I know that the risk of kids dying from COVID is small, but there are a lot of kids out there, right? I can’t be the only parent of young kids reading this thread. Like people who are immunocompromised, this push to reopen feels like society and all levels of US government think kids are expendable (don’t even get me started on Iowa). The pandemic will most certainly not be over for me until young kids can get vaccinated.
posted by Maarika at 9:00 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
posted by Maarika at 9:00 PM on May 25, 2021 [25 favorites]
Enjoy the lockdown free and reduced mask times while they last. Humans are not learning to protect themselves as fast as the virus is learning to bypass our immunities.
posted by interogative mood at 9:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:04 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
I don't think anyone is calling the pandemic over, not in the U.S. and not elsewhere. These things, though, are pretty authoritatively established as true:
- the mRNA vaccines provide astonishingly close to total protection against serious illness and death, and the J&J vaccine isn't far behind in effectiveness.
- fully vaccinated people don't carry or transmit the virus to a significant degree.
- children's risk of serious illness from COVID-19 Is as low as it is for the flu
- some unvaccinated people (immuno-compromised and others) - and even some in these groups who have been vaccinated - are more vulnerable and sadly will have to take extra precautions for a much longer time.
- there are and will continue to be maskholes who willfully refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear a mask in public, and they are actively threatening unvaccinated people they encounter
- there is no such thing as zero risk
- everyone can and will make their own risk assessments, hopefully guided by the most authoritative medical and epidemiological information as is known at each moment. I recommend following Dr. Bob Wachter of UCSF on Twitter, who reports and synthesizes the latest information empathetically and authoritatively.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [22 favorites]
- the mRNA vaccines provide astonishingly close to total protection against serious illness and death, and the J&J vaccine isn't far behind in effectiveness.
- fully vaccinated people don't carry or transmit the virus to a significant degree.
- children's risk of serious illness from COVID-19 Is as low as it is for the flu
- some unvaccinated people (immuno-compromised and others) - and even some in these groups who have been vaccinated - are more vulnerable and sadly will have to take extra precautions for a much longer time.
- there are and will continue to be maskholes who willfully refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear a mask in public, and they are actively threatening unvaccinated people they encounter
- there is no such thing as zero risk
- everyone can and will make their own risk assessments, hopefully guided by the most authoritative medical and epidemiological information as is known at each moment. I recommend following Dr. Bob Wachter of UCSF on Twitter, who reports and synthesizes the latest information empathetically and authoritatively.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:16 PM on May 25, 2021 [22 favorites]
I know that the risk of kids dying from COVID is small, but there are a lot of kids out there, right
As of April 18, 227 kids 15 or under in the us had in fact died of Covid. Compared to over half a million adults. Obviously for them and their parents the fact that it’s very uncommon is not any help but OTOH there are a lot of long term physical and mental health risks from adverse childhood social and emotional experiences, from heart disease to increased suicide risk, which may mean for kids isolation is worse than actually getting Covid-19 themselves. (Of course if they spread it to someone more vulnerable that’s a different matter altogether)
posted by aubilenon at 9:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
As of April 18, 227 kids 15 or under in the us had in fact died of Covid. Compared to over half a million adults. Obviously for them and their parents the fact that it’s very uncommon is not any help but OTOH there are a lot of long term physical and mental health risks from adverse childhood social and emotional experiences, from heart disease to increased suicide risk, which may mean for kids isolation is worse than actually getting Covid-19 themselves. (Of course if they spread it to someone more vulnerable that’s a different matter altogether)
posted by aubilenon at 9:58 PM on May 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
> Sorry, to clarify, I was trying to say that vaccine resistant variants will be the fastest growing of the covid variants in a vaccinated population, not that the growth rates of vaccine resistant strains will accelerate when people are vaccinated. They will be reduced, just not by as much as the strains the vaccines were developed to combat.
Or more clearly, vaccinating people will wipe out non-vaccine resistant strains of covid, so the vaccine resistant ones will be increasingly the ones that people will be catching.
posted by Zalzidrax at 10:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
Or more clearly, vaccinating people will wipe out non-vaccine resistant strains of covid, so the vaccine resistant ones will be increasingly the ones that people will be catching.
posted by Zalzidrax at 10:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]
Hello, fellow Iowan with a child! My son’s daycare (he just turned four) announced yesterday that masks will no longer be required for kids or staff when they are outside. Which is often now that the weather is decent. In the same email, they asked for input from parents regarding indoor usage.
What’s the right answer? I don’t know, honestly. My son has been so good about wearing his mask up until a month or so ago. Now, there are only a few masks he will still wear because the others are too itchy or pull on his ears too much. He hates wearing masks but he does it because we’ve told him it helps keep people safe.
He knows about COVID-19. When he looks at old family pictures, he notices how nobody is wearing a mask so the picture is from “before the coronavirus”. He talks about the things we can do “when coronavirus is over”. He was so, so, so, so happy because now that Mee Maw and Pop Pop are vaccinated, he got to visit and spend the night last weekend.
So, again, I don’t know what the right answer is. Which is hard because the fathers of little boys are supposed to be the wisest, strongest people in the world. I think the closest thing to a right answer I’ve heard came from my welding instructor — “Things have been hard for everyone, so remember that a little kindness can go a long way.”
posted by Big Al 8000 at 10:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
What’s the right answer? I don’t know, honestly. My son has been so good about wearing his mask up until a month or so ago. Now, there are only a few masks he will still wear because the others are too itchy or pull on his ears too much. He hates wearing masks but he does it because we’ve told him it helps keep people safe.
He knows about COVID-19. When he looks at old family pictures, he notices how nobody is wearing a mask so the picture is from “before the coronavirus”. He talks about the things we can do “when coronavirus is over”. He was so, so, so, so happy because now that Mee Maw and Pop Pop are vaccinated, he got to visit and spend the night last weekend.
So, again, I don’t know what the right answer is. Which is hard because the fathers of little boys are supposed to be the wisest, strongest people in the world. I think the closest thing to a right answer I’ve heard came from my welding instructor — “Things have been hard for everyone, so remember that a little kindness can go a long way.”
posted by Big Al 8000 at 10:39 PM on May 25, 2021 [7 favorites]
I’m American, living near a blue city in a red state. I’ve been lucky enough not to have to go out much, and I got the vaccine as early as I could. I find stronger masks really uncomfortable after awhile, but I don’t mind a simple cotton mask at all.
It was interesting to me how we all went through that first round of risk assessment as the pandemic started, then we each assess again if/after we get the vaccine. A good friend and I were on the same page before the vaccine, but now I’m more cautious than she is.
Or maybe I should say “was”. I don’t know … it’s not a pure assessment of risk, it’s risk vs. reward. I was disappointed, after getting the vaccine, to realize I wasn’t going to change my life much - I was happy to get it, but for me it wasn’t a free pass, just another layer in the swiss cheese. I go to the grocery store a bit more often, went into a shoe store, hugged a few close (vaccinated) friends outside (or sat with them inside), didn’t get quite as upset when someone else wasn’t wearing a mask.
And then my friend’s daughter died essentially of covid (after everyone else in her family got it, she for the second time), and risk/reward dictated that I overcome my fears and fly to Mexico to be with my friend. I understand that the vaccine is currently effective, I don’t know how long that will last, and I’m taking advantage of that window.
I take each situation as it comes - my risk meter is kind of like the internal seismograph we all developed in LA after the Northridge quake. (Meet indoors or out? Cotton mask or N-95? How to get from here to there?) I don’t especially trust the CDC, but I also don’t have much else to go by. I read the news, and track the numbers … My next big question will be a faraway wedding in September. What’s the risk/reward there? And yes, I get that at some point I’m more likely to die from texting while driving. It’s not a competition for me - it’s different risk, different reward.
Part of my concern here in Mexico isn’t about getting sick, but about testing positive and not being able to return home. I honestly don’t know what risks I’ll take when I get back to the US. My response is absolutely partly emotional, and in a potentially life-threatening situation (for me or others), or just out of respect for those who have suffered (many of us are traumatized one way or another; my friend tells me she’s terrified to get it for a third time), I’m ok with that.
One thing I haven’t seen in the responses above is the option to communicate with others about your choices. Not a good option in some situations, but in others … I tell people I’m vaccinated, and that I hear I can’t get the virus or pass it on. With friends (or friends of friends) I ask if they’ve been vaccinated. I say I’m ok with not wearing a mask, but will wear it if they’d prefer. (Or in some situations the reverse.) Etc., etc. (Again, I’m lucky enough that a cotton mask doesn’t bother me much, so I’m generally able to balance my comfort with theirs.) Sometimes I just move further away. (Or I tell people I’m uncomfortable and I’m going to back up.)
Anyway - just one more (long) personal story, to add to the mix. We’ve all been through a lot. One last note, because I remember that the OP is about the pandemic being over. I had plans to move, just at the start of the pandemic - largely because my apartment in the woods was too isolated. And my landlord planned to sell, then decided to wait until after the pandemic was over. I have no idea what that means for him, anymore, but I feel safe there and I hope he chooses well.
posted by anshuman at 10:42 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
It was interesting to me how we all went through that first round of risk assessment as the pandemic started, then we each assess again if/after we get the vaccine. A good friend and I were on the same page before the vaccine, but now I’m more cautious than she is.
Or maybe I should say “was”. I don’t know … it’s not a pure assessment of risk, it’s risk vs. reward. I was disappointed, after getting the vaccine, to realize I wasn’t going to change my life much - I was happy to get it, but for me it wasn’t a free pass, just another layer in the swiss cheese. I go to the grocery store a bit more often, went into a shoe store, hugged a few close (vaccinated) friends outside (or sat with them inside), didn’t get quite as upset when someone else wasn’t wearing a mask.
And then my friend’s daughter died essentially of covid (after everyone else in her family got it, she for the second time), and risk/reward dictated that I overcome my fears and fly to Mexico to be with my friend. I understand that the vaccine is currently effective, I don’t know how long that will last, and I’m taking advantage of that window.
I take each situation as it comes - my risk meter is kind of like the internal seismograph we all developed in LA after the Northridge quake. (Meet indoors or out? Cotton mask or N-95? How to get from here to there?) I don’t especially trust the CDC, but I also don’t have much else to go by. I read the news, and track the numbers … My next big question will be a faraway wedding in September. What’s the risk/reward there? And yes, I get that at some point I’m more likely to die from texting while driving. It’s not a competition for me - it’s different risk, different reward.
Part of my concern here in Mexico isn’t about getting sick, but about testing positive and not being able to return home. I honestly don’t know what risks I’ll take when I get back to the US. My response is absolutely partly emotional, and in a potentially life-threatening situation (for me or others), or just out of respect for those who have suffered (many of us are traumatized one way or another; my friend tells me she’s terrified to get it for a third time), I’m ok with that.
One thing I haven’t seen in the responses above is the option to communicate with others about your choices. Not a good option in some situations, but in others … I tell people I’m vaccinated, and that I hear I can’t get the virus or pass it on. With friends (or friends of friends) I ask if they’ve been vaccinated. I say I’m ok with not wearing a mask, but will wear it if they’d prefer. (Or in some situations the reverse.) Etc., etc. (Again, I’m lucky enough that a cotton mask doesn’t bother me much, so I’m generally able to balance my comfort with theirs.) Sometimes I just move further away. (Or I tell people I’m uncomfortable and I’m going to back up.)
Anyway - just one more (long) personal story, to add to the mix. We’ve all been through a lot. One last note, because I remember that the OP is about the pandemic being over. I had plans to move, just at the start of the pandemic - largely because my apartment in the woods was too isolated. And my landlord planned to sell, then decided to wait until after the pandemic was over. I have no idea what that means for him, anymore, but I feel safe there and I hope he chooses well.
posted by anshuman at 10:42 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory*". Yikes.
The lab-leak theory was pushed by Trump and Pompeo and Infowars as racist "Kung-flu" BS, so it has the same credibilty as chemtrails and election fraud. The problem is there hasn't been much evidence either way for months. It's not exactly insane to think that a virology lab that studies coronaviruses could have leaked one, since it's happend the past (5 times with SARS).
If there's any possibility this leaked from a lab, science should get ahead of the fallout. Millions are dead, and many trillions of dollars are wasted. This cannot be contained to a particular lab: science in general will be on trial.
posted by netowl at 10:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
The lab-leak theory was pushed by Trump and Pompeo and Infowars as racist "Kung-flu" BS, so it has the same credibilty as chemtrails and election fraud. The problem is there hasn't been much evidence either way for months. It's not exactly insane to think that a virology lab that studies coronaviruses could have leaked one, since it's happend the past (5 times with SARS).
If there's any possibility this leaked from a lab, science should get ahead of the fallout. Millions are dead, and many trillions of dollars are wasted. This cannot be contained to a particular lab: science in general will be on trial.
posted by netowl at 10:48 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
Mod note: A couple of comments deleted; please see cortex's note, above. Also, the lab-leak thing is a completely different discussion, so if it seems like an actual significant new development in what is currently known, maybe a new post on that topic.
posted by taz (staff) at 10:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 10:57 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]
I’d rather be mocked as overly cautious than mourned for not taking it seriously enough.
posted by _paegan_ at 1:59 AM on May 26, 2021 [21 favorites]
posted by _paegan_ at 1:59 AM on May 26, 2021 [21 favorites]
A fair number of people in the U.S. are making mathematically-irrational decisions and calling them rational and scolding people who think otherwise, rather than just saying that they're still uncomfortable and unsure and it was a huge fucking trauma that's not over for most of the world, so they just want to wear their masks a little longer (to be clear, I consider the latter position to be wholly understandable and defensible; wear your mask as long as you need to). But it's still not a great framing for something aimed at the broader public.
I do risk management assessments for engineering projects as part of my job, and refusing to ditch an effective control measure without significant costs (masks) because you added a new control measure (vaccines) is about as orthodox as you can get from a risk management perspective.
If people designed bridges or built industrial plants with single non-redundant risk controls as effective as Covid vaccines against lethal risks roughly equivalent to the current US Covid case rate it would be considered engineering malpractice. People would be dying daily in bridge collapses and fertiliser plant explosions.
The point where risk controls become excessive and cost society more value than they add is traditionally considered to be where the control costs 3-10x the approximate actuarial value of the people killed or injured in the absence of the control. Actuarial death value is usually low 7 figures and I would guess Covid hospitalisation is going to be somewhere in the 6 figures considering the significant fraction of hospitalised cases with persistent symptoms and impaired lung function.
Even if we just try to reach cost parity with forcing people to wear masks you have to put a very large value on the emotional pain some people experience from being forced to wear a mask and the joy some people get out of not wearing a mask to get anywhere near the cost US society is currently experiencing from Covid breakthrough cases among vaccinated people.
If you boil all the emotion out of it, which is what usually happens when you consider fertiliser plant design or the type of concrete used in a bridge foundation, currently almost anyone doing a risk analysis would reach the conclusion that vaccinated people in the US should be forced to wear masks until case rates drop significantly.
posted by zymil at 2:47 AM on May 26, 2021 [45 favorites]
I do risk management assessments for engineering projects as part of my job, and refusing to ditch an effective control measure without significant costs (masks) because you added a new control measure (vaccines) is about as orthodox as you can get from a risk management perspective.
If people designed bridges or built industrial plants with single non-redundant risk controls as effective as Covid vaccines against lethal risks roughly equivalent to the current US Covid case rate it would be considered engineering malpractice. People would be dying daily in bridge collapses and fertiliser plant explosions.
The point where risk controls become excessive and cost society more value than they add is traditionally considered to be where the control costs 3-10x the approximate actuarial value of the people killed or injured in the absence of the control. Actuarial death value is usually low 7 figures and I would guess Covid hospitalisation is going to be somewhere in the 6 figures considering the significant fraction of hospitalised cases with persistent symptoms and impaired lung function.
Even if we just try to reach cost parity with forcing people to wear masks you have to put a very large value on the emotional pain some people experience from being forced to wear a mask and the joy some people get out of not wearing a mask to get anywhere near the cost US society is currently experiencing from Covid breakthrough cases among vaccinated people.
If you boil all the emotion out of it, which is what usually happens when you consider fertiliser plant design or the type of concrete used in a bridge foundation, currently almost anyone doing a risk analysis would reach the conclusion that vaccinated people in the US should be forced to wear masks until case rates drop significantly.
posted by zymil at 2:47 AM on May 26, 2021 [45 favorites]
primethyme: "dial down precautions about 25% from that."
So, same as in town, then?
posted by chavenet at 4:48 AM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
So, same as in town, then?
posted by chavenet at 4:48 AM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
As of April 18, 227 kids 15 or under in the us had in fact died of Covid. Compared to over half a million adults. Obviously for them and their parents the fact that it’s very uncommon is not any help but OTOH there are a lot of long term physical and mental health risks from adverse childhood social and emotional experiences, from heart disease to increased suicide risk, which may mean for kids isolation is worse than actually getting Covid-19 themselves. (Of course if they spread it to someone more vulnerable that’s a different matter altogether)
This sort of logic right here is yet another reason why I'm skeptical as fuck.
People are treating Covid as this binary sort of thing. Either you die, or nothing happened. Things don't work that way. There's a ten-fold factor of people with long-term complications from Covid who didn't die, but aren't up to 100%, even months later.
Your kid got Covid at 5? They might be at reduced lung capacity for their entire life. Or not. We do not know.
I don't know about you, but when I think of polio, I think of iron lungs and kids in braces. A president in a wheelchair. I know plenty of people died, but the enduring legacy of polio was also the people that got it and lived. We simply don't know enough about Covid to know if it's something that our immune system defeats and moves along, or if it's something that leaves permanent marks on our bodies.
Kids simply can't get vaccinated yet, and pointing to a low mortality rate as evidence that the disease isn't dangerous at all feels like the height of irresponsible behavior toward a cohort that is not able to make informed decisions for themselves.
posted by explosion at 5:09 AM on May 26, 2021 [44 favorites]
This sort of logic right here is yet another reason why I'm skeptical as fuck.
People are treating Covid as this binary sort of thing. Either you die, or nothing happened. Things don't work that way. There's a ten-fold factor of people with long-term complications from Covid who didn't die, but aren't up to 100%, even months later.
Your kid got Covid at 5? They might be at reduced lung capacity for their entire life. Or not. We do not know.
I don't know about you, but when I think of polio, I think of iron lungs and kids in braces. A president in a wheelchair. I know plenty of people died, but the enduring legacy of polio was also the people that got it and lived. We simply don't know enough about Covid to know if it's something that our immune system defeats and moves along, or if it's something that leaves permanent marks on our bodies.
Kids simply can't get vaccinated yet, and pointing to a low mortality rate as evidence that the disease isn't dangerous at all feels like the height of irresponsible behavior toward a cohort that is not able to make informed decisions for themselves.
posted by explosion at 5:09 AM on May 26, 2021 [44 favorites]
explosion: the enduring legacy of polio was also the people that got it and lived.
Anecdata: my mother has had (and still has) really bad, recurring back pains all her life, as a result of polio.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:47 AM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
Anecdata: my mother has had (and still has) really bad, recurring back pains all her life, as a result of polio.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:47 AM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
About two weeks ago was when everyone on my local bike trail just generally spontaneously stopped wearing masks outdoors.
My biggest problem with taking off masks is figuring what the hell I'm supposed to do with the resting bitch face and scowl I've been working on for the past year and some change.
Seriously, I kind of got used to gritting my teeth, scowling and even sticking my tongue out a people under my mask. I have now developed the very skill that I can skill that I can smile with my eyes while simultaneously scowling at someone so hard I'm attempting to light them on fire with my mind.
Hey, I've been working in food service. Masks have been very useful. They protect other people from lipreading things like "Oh, fuck you, you drunk dumbass!"
I've been trying to remember how to smile but so far all I've got is gritting my teeth less with slightly less grim determination.
Seriously, can we make masks a permanent thing in food service and customer service? It's safer for everyone and workers won't have to burn parts of their soul every time they have to fake a smile for special snowflake customers.
posted by loquacious at 6:48 AM on May 26, 2021 [24 favorites]
My biggest problem with taking off masks is figuring what the hell I'm supposed to do with the resting bitch face and scowl I've been working on for the past year and some change.
Seriously, I kind of got used to gritting my teeth, scowling and even sticking my tongue out a people under my mask. I have now developed the very skill that I can skill that I can smile with my eyes while simultaneously scowling at someone so hard I'm attempting to light them on fire with my mind.
Hey, I've been working in food service. Masks have been very useful. They protect other people from lipreading things like "Oh, fuck you, you drunk dumbass!"
I've been trying to remember how to smile but so far all I've got is gritting my teeth less with slightly less grim determination.
Seriously, can we make masks a permanent thing in food service and customer service? It's safer for everyone and workers won't have to burn parts of their soul every time they have to fake a smile for special snowflake customers.
posted by loquacious at 6:48 AM on May 26, 2021 [24 favorites]
Yeah, the death/nothing binary some people are presenting about COVID is disturbing because it's so counterfactual and odds are good that anyone with a decent sized social group personally knows someone who is suffering from ongoing COVID problems.
My assistant manager at work is one such person. They got COVID several months ago, had a **LONG** recovery period despite not being bad enough to need hospitalization, and after they supposedly recovered they still have very low stamina and get exhausted just walking across the room sometimes.
They lived. By the binary way of thinking that means there's no problem. But IRL they've got ongoing health problems and no one knows if that's temporary, or if they'll have that exhaustion for the rest of their lives.
And we have no idea what the long term health issues are for children who get COVID and live. Will they drop dead at 30? No clue. Will it affect growth? Mental development? No clue.
And thanks to zymel for putting so clearly why so many people are still masking. We have uncertainty, risk, and wearing a mask is an essentially zero cost mitigator for that risk. Of course people don't want to give that up.
I don't think any actually likes wearing masks, they suck. And I'll be delighted to join the mask burning party where we all hug and lick each other's eyeballs or whatever. After it's really, truly, no last minute reappearance like a horror movie villain, over.
But not one nanosecond before.
I'm down with more interaction between us vaccinated folk, including maskless in small social settings where we know each other and can trust that everyone else really is vaccinated.
Out in the wild where there's MAGA chumps and Q-cultists who lie reflexively and maliciously want to infect people with COVID? Nope. Nope. Nope. Not happening. I'll assume anyone maskless at the grocery store or whatever is a Trumpie and be nervous around them.
posted by sotonohito at 7:22 AM on May 26, 2021 [18 favorites]
My assistant manager at work is one such person. They got COVID several months ago, had a **LONG** recovery period despite not being bad enough to need hospitalization, and after they supposedly recovered they still have very low stamina and get exhausted just walking across the room sometimes.
They lived. By the binary way of thinking that means there's no problem. But IRL they've got ongoing health problems and no one knows if that's temporary, or if they'll have that exhaustion for the rest of their lives.
And we have no idea what the long term health issues are for children who get COVID and live. Will they drop dead at 30? No clue. Will it affect growth? Mental development? No clue.
And thanks to zymel for putting so clearly why so many people are still masking. We have uncertainty, risk, and wearing a mask is an essentially zero cost mitigator for that risk. Of course people don't want to give that up.
I don't think any actually likes wearing masks, they suck. And I'll be delighted to join the mask burning party where we all hug and lick each other's eyeballs or whatever. After it's really, truly, no last minute reappearance like a horror movie villain, over.
But not one nanosecond before.
I'm down with more interaction between us vaccinated folk, including maskless in small social settings where we know each other and can trust that everyone else really is vaccinated.
Out in the wild where there's MAGA chumps and Q-cultists who lie reflexively and maliciously want to infect people with COVID? Nope. Nope. Nope. Not happening. I'll assume anyone maskless at the grocery store or whatever is a Trumpie and be nervous around them.
posted by sotonohito at 7:22 AM on May 26, 2021 [18 favorites]
odds are good that anyone with a decent sized social group personally knows someone who is suffering from ongoing COVID problems.
Yep, I know an NICU nurse who needed a double lung transplant due to COVID complications.
Me and my spouse are both in high risk groups (diabetes and immunosuppressant meds for rheumatoid arthritis, respectively). Is the vaccine really 95% effective for us? We don't know!
Are we comfortable with not wearing masks around other people who might not be vaccinated and aren't wearing masks, in a time when the new cases per day in our area looks like May 2020? We are not!
posted by Foosnark at 7:35 AM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
Yep, I know an NICU nurse who needed a double lung transplant due to COVID complications.
Me and my spouse are both in high risk groups (diabetes and immunosuppressant meds for rheumatoid arthritis, respectively). Is the vaccine really 95% effective for us? We don't know!
Are we comfortable with not wearing masks around other people who might not be vaccinated and aren't wearing masks, in a time when the new cases per day in our area looks like May 2020? We are not!
posted by Foosnark at 7:35 AM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
Yeah, the death/nothing binary some people are presenting about COVID is disturbing
This. I'm a transfeminine singer and an athlete. I can't afford the kind of damage that a mild case of COVID might do to my lungs. Hard enough to sing, speak, or breathe in the ways I need to every day.
So yeah, small risk... Huge potential impact. I'll keep my mask on for a while, even though I'm vaccinated.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:39 AM on May 26, 2021 [9 favorites]
This. I'm a transfeminine singer and an athlete. I can't afford the kind of damage that a mild case of COVID might do to my lungs. Hard enough to sing, speak, or breathe in the ways I need to every day.
So yeah, small risk... Huge potential impact. I'll keep my mask on for a while, even though I'm vaccinated.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:39 AM on May 26, 2021 [9 favorites]
odds are good that anyone with a decent sized social group personally knows someone who is suffering from ongoing COVID problems.
Nope. I don't personally know anyone who has died or even suffered any effects. None of my co-wokers, in multiple locations around the world. None of my family - they live in a very small very poor town near the Mexico border. No-one there died either - I'm still pay attention to the news. Nobody at my kids' school, which has been open since late September. My nephew just ran in the regional track meet. When I was doing physical therapy (the entire first year), no one in that with me ever even got COVID.
I still only personally know one person who was hospitalized, and they are fine.
That's the thing that sucks most about COVID - that we may wish it was a vengeful god dispensing injury and death to the non-believers, but unfortunately it just doesn't work like that. It's also very likely that the vast majority of the deniers haven't experienced any serious close family members' injury or death to make it real.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:51 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Nope. I don't personally know anyone who has died or even suffered any effects. None of my co-wokers, in multiple locations around the world. None of my family - they live in a very small very poor town near the Mexico border. No-one there died either - I'm still pay attention to the news. Nobody at my kids' school, which has been open since late September. My nephew just ran in the regional track meet. When I was doing physical therapy (the entire first year), no one in that with me ever even got COVID.
I still only personally know one person who was hospitalized, and they are fine.
That's the thing that sucks most about COVID - that we may wish it was a vengeful god dispensing injury and death to the non-believers, but unfortunately it just doesn't work like that. It's also very likely that the vast majority of the deniers haven't experienced any serious close family members' injury or death to make it real.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:51 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
I really appreciated the comments from folks talking about how continuing to mask can show respect and care for those among us who are not able to get the vaccine yet, or for whom it may not work well or at all. Prudence is a virtue as well, when the risks may be small but just how small and for whom is not totally clear.
Anyway I'm not as eloquent as they were, I just wanted to a make a point of how I think about it in my own head: how, do I imagine, Mr. Rogers would approach this? I think he would choose the path that showed the most care and concern for others, especially given that the cost to continue masking is so small.
(I obviously cannot claim to speak for him, this is just a way I think about it in my own head, the version of Fred Rogers in your head may be different, etc). Just thought I'd share.
posted by cats are weird at 8:04 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
Anyway I'm not as eloquent as they were, I just wanted to a make a point of how I think about it in my own head: how, do I imagine, Mr. Rogers would approach this? I think he would choose the path that showed the most care and concern for others, especially given that the cost to continue masking is so small.
(I obviously cannot claim to speak for him, this is just a way I think about it in my own head, the version of Fred Rogers in your head may be different, etc). Just thought I'd share.
posted by cats are weird at 8:04 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
odds are good that anyone with a decent sized social group personally knows someone who is suffering from ongoing COVID problems.
We know a few people, including some very close, who have died. But we don't know anyone personally who has had long term health effects or even been hospitalized and recovered. Or rather, we don't know anyone who is disclosing having those effects; I would assume one or more people in our social network has had some kind of long term impact but isn't talking about their health issues publicly, just like I don't necessarily know who has a condition like lupus or diabetes.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:07 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
We know a few people, including some very close, who have died. But we don't know anyone personally who has had long term health effects or even been hospitalized and recovered. Or rather, we don't know anyone who is disclosing having those effects; I would assume one or more people in our social network has had some kind of long term impact but isn't talking about their health issues publicly, just like I don't necessarily know who has a condition like lupus or diabetes.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:07 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Pandemic literally means global epidemic. It doesn't end when rich Americans start going out to dinner.
posted by indica at 8:50 AM on May 26, 2021 [20 favorites]
posted by indica at 8:50 AM on May 26, 2021 [20 favorites]
After a six week bout of active illness very early on, a relative of mine is left with thyroid trouble and a facial neurological issue (both of which are improving, but it's been over a year). It's not just about respiratory or circulatory issues, it'll eff you up whichever way it likes.
posted by wellred at 9:07 AM on May 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by wellred at 9:07 AM on May 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
Everybody's just hoping that it's a good enough assumption anyway and the vaccines will work good enough against even the new variants because nobody wants to deal with the alternative right now.
Moderna is already ramping up to do booster shots, so it's not like there's no plan- they're working on either booster shots of the current vaccine (easy, probably somewhat useful) and also tweaked boosters designed to target the scariest variants. The US could have boosters available by the fall.
The virus seems to be mutating slow enough that the full weight of American production can quite possibly keep up with variants, especially now we know the mRNA vaccines are safe and effective.
There's also an effort to develop a pan- coronavirus vaccine, but that's obviously not as far advanced (it works well in animal models).
posted by BungaDunga at 9:09 AM on May 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
Moderna is already ramping up to do booster shots, so it's not like there's no plan- they're working on either booster shots of the current vaccine (easy, probably somewhat useful) and also tweaked boosters designed to target the scariest variants. The US could have boosters available by the fall.
The virus seems to be mutating slow enough that the full weight of American production can quite possibly keep up with variants, especially now we know the mRNA vaccines are safe and effective.
There's also an effort to develop a pan- coronavirus vaccine, but that's obviously not as far advanced (it works well in animal models).
posted by BungaDunga at 9:09 AM on May 26, 2021 [7 favorites]
My most recent day-ruiner was reading an account of an otherwise-healthy, fully vaccinated, 43 year old woman who used to run three miles every day until she caught a mild breakthrough case of Covid from her son. Two months later, she’s still struggling with breathlessness, fatigue, and exercise intolerance. If the mild or asymptomatic cases still possible for the vaccinated leave you just as vulnerable as the unvaccinated to long haul symptoms, for all sorts of personal and health reasons I’ll still be masking more often than not, for the foreseeable future.
posted by blue suede stockings at 9:13 AM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by blue suede stockings at 9:13 AM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
one of my favourite grocery stores -- I don't go to it anymore because there's invariably a lineup to get in, and I've long HATED standing in line. It's one of those tight spaces, narrow aisles, stuff stacked tightly and high. Back in pre-Covid "normal", you couldn't help but get close to strangers, rub elbows. Like riding the bus. I used to ride the bus. A lot.
What I look forward to is not taking off my mask but being able to commit to a reasonably crowded space again. I doubt I was ever in that store for longer than fifteen-twenty minutes. I can handle wearing a mask for that long. Seriously. It's just not that big a deal. Same thing for riding a bus.
But crowded bars, everybody with a drink or seven in them, socially loose -- that's a whole other scenario. Likewise any indoor event that involves a little alcohol and social looseness. I mean, I've loved a good crowded house party my whole life, even as a little kid bombing around at floor level, the adults above us like a weird moving jungle of trees. But I'm in my sixties now. I'm more susceptible to all manner of things ...
To hell with the New Normal (TM) -- I'm wondering about the next normal. For instance, in my town, as a direct result of Covid-19, they've legalized having a beer in a park ... as long as you're not an idiot, as long as you don't get hammered and start wrestling with the swans.
The history books are overflowing with normals that seemed as stable as mountains, but then something happened (a war, a disease, a flood, a new transportation or communications technology) and things changed. And even mountains aren't entirely stable.
posted by philip-random at 9:16 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
What I look forward to is not taking off my mask but being able to commit to a reasonably crowded space again. I doubt I was ever in that store for longer than fifteen-twenty minutes. I can handle wearing a mask for that long. Seriously. It's just not that big a deal. Same thing for riding a bus.
But crowded bars, everybody with a drink or seven in them, socially loose -- that's a whole other scenario. Likewise any indoor event that involves a little alcohol and social looseness. I mean, I've loved a good crowded house party my whole life, even as a little kid bombing around at floor level, the adults above us like a weird moving jungle of trees. But I'm in my sixties now. I'm more susceptible to all manner of things ...
To hell with the New Normal (TM) -- I'm wondering about the next normal. For instance, in my town, as a direct result of Covid-19, they've legalized having a beer in a park ... as long as you're not an idiot, as long as you don't get hammered and start wrestling with the swans.
The history books are overflowing with normals that seemed as stable as mountains, but then something happened (a war, a disease, a flood, a new transportation or communications technology) and things changed. And even mountains aren't entirely stable.
posted by philip-random at 9:16 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
My locale has launched DORA (designated outdoor refreshment area) - meaning adults can walk around outside drinking alcohol, inside the DORA area, if they get their drinks from DORA bars/restaurants in a special DORA cup. This seems hilarious to me, when it feels like gee, just the other day there were open container laws against this very thing.
posted by I_Love_Bananas at 9:25 AM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by I_Love_Bananas at 9:25 AM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
odds are good that anyone with a decent sized social group personally knows someone who is suffering from ongoing COVID problems.
I'm 99% certain I've had it at least once. Maybe twice. And I worked in food service and was also volunteering at the food bank before the pandemic really got underway and restrictions were being mandated - and then worked through most of the pandemic cooking and washing dirty dishes.
I never was able to qualify for UI/PUA and I missed that gravy train and paid time off. It was a miracle I was able to survive on the stimulus checks which was spent almost entirely on rent and bills during the lockdowns when I couldn't work.
Both times had the same symptoms, including a pervasive and ongoing metallic taste, diarrhea, prolonged fever, severe body aches, dry cough, sore throat and more.
I also had worst sinus infections I've ever even heard of and I've never had a sinus infection in my life before these incidents. Like it was so bad (gross trigger warning!) I was blowing solid bloody chunks and other gross shit out of my nose like I was trying to take a silicone cast of my nasal passages every half hour or so and was physically pulling rubbery gack and mucous membranes out of my face holes. It was alarming - like a scene out of Aliens or The Thing kind of alarming.
During the first bout of whatever this was I had to quarantine outside in a camp on private land for 15 days of sheer misery and being very cold outside because there was no other way for me to quarantine from the rest of the household where there was someone elderly and at risk. Luckily I managed to dig a latrine for myself at the first sign of being sick before I got too sick, weak and feverish to do it.
The only other time I can think of where I got even remotely close to this sick for this long was a bout with severe pneumonia when I was a kid - not counting the stress induced collapsed lung incident I had earlier this decade because that wasn't an infection or virus.
Both tests were negative, and they were very early tests with the high false negative rates. Even my primary doctor was like "Well, it sure seems like you've had it. These tests aren't perfect."
And yet I still can't get an antibody test approved and can't afford one on my own.
Ongoing lingering symptoms have included extreme fatigue that just doesn't make sense, brain fog and ongoing, lingering metallic taste and some loss of taste and smell, and a lingering dry cough and reduced lung capacity.
Anecdotally I've had spikes and peaks in the weird metallic taste, fatigue and brain fog that seems to line up with exposures to people who have had positive tests or particularly dirty/busy days at work, and that would make sense to me if I did have antibodies and fought off yet another infection thanks to previous exposure and antibody development.
Frustratingly I haven't been able to get vaccinated yet. I've talked to my doctor about this, but I have a family medical history of reacting to vaccines, I'm at risk for DVT and blood clots due to other medical issues, lifestyle and medication regime.
While this is anecdotal, like 2/3rds of the people I personally know locally who have been vaccinated has had some pretty severe issues, but these are all people that generally work in the restaurant industry, retail or customer service who may have likely already survived an infection prior to being vaccinated, and this has been worrying me a lot. My housemate is currently on blood thinners for MRI verified blood clots and DVT that happened the day after her second shot.
So, for better or worse right now I'm on a "wait and see" basis with getting vaccinated and it's been driving me crazy. I am not anti-vax. I have had TDAP, pertussis and other vaccines in the past few years and hope I can tolerate a C19 vaccination. I want to get vaccinated but I'm also at a tenuous place and crossroads with work, income and some household changes where I really can't afford even 3-5 days of being knocked out by side effects from any of the given vaccines.
I'm bringing all of this personal medical history up because there's been a lot of energy and "culture war" activity about people being vaccinated or not. I've had good friends outright give me a ton of negative energy even when I'm trying to explain to them that I'm under professional advice to wait and see, or at least wait until I know I can afford to take the risk of more acute side effects.
For now I'm going to keep wearing my mask indoors or in close quarters outdoors. I am still limiting my social contact. Thankfully one of my jobs is working from home, and when I'm working in the restaurant I gear up for battle and am constantly washing or sanitizing my hands and wearing an N95 mask.
Please do get vaccinated. But also be mindful that it isn't a black or white issue or easy choice for everyone. Some of us can't get it yet. There's going to also be demographics and segments of our population that are at elevated risk for side effects, or just can't get access to it yet due to poverty or lack of ID or other issues.
posted by loquacious at 9:29 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
I'm 99% certain I've had it at least once. Maybe twice. And I worked in food service and was also volunteering at the food bank before the pandemic really got underway and restrictions were being mandated - and then worked through most of the pandemic cooking and washing dirty dishes.
I never was able to qualify for UI/PUA and I missed that gravy train and paid time off. It was a miracle I was able to survive on the stimulus checks which was spent almost entirely on rent and bills during the lockdowns when I couldn't work.
Both times had the same symptoms, including a pervasive and ongoing metallic taste, diarrhea, prolonged fever, severe body aches, dry cough, sore throat and more.
I also had worst sinus infections I've ever even heard of and I've never had a sinus infection in my life before these incidents. Like it was so bad (gross trigger warning!) I was blowing solid bloody chunks and other gross shit out of my nose like I was trying to take a silicone cast of my nasal passages every half hour or so and was physically pulling rubbery gack and mucous membranes out of my face holes. It was alarming - like a scene out of Aliens or The Thing kind of alarming.
During the first bout of whatever this was I had to quarantine outside in a camp on private land for 15 days of sheer misery and being very cold outside because there was no other way for me to quarantine from the rest of the household where there was someone elderly and at risk. Luckily I managed to dig a latrine for myself at the first sign of being sick before I got too sick, weak and feverish to do it.
The only other time I can think of where I got even remotely close to this sick for this long was a bout with severe pneumonia when I was a kid - not counting the stress induced collapsed lung incident I had earlier this decade because that wasn't an infection or virus.
Both tests were negative, and they were very early tests with the high false negative rates. Even my primary doctor was like "Well, it sure seems like you've had it. These tests aren't perfect."
And yet I still can't get an antibody test approved and can't afford one on my own.
Ongoing lingering symptoms have included extreme fatigue that just doesn't make sense, brain fog and ongoing, lingering metallic taste and some loss of taste and smell, and a lingering dry cough and reduced lung capacity.
Anecdotally I've had spikes and peaks in the weird metallic taste, fatigue and brain fog that seems to line up with exposures to people who have had positive tests or particularly dirty/busy days at work, and that would make sense to me if I did have antibodies and fought off yet another infection thanks to previous exposure and antibody development.
Frustratingly I haven't been able to get vaccinated yet. I've talked to my doctor about this, but I have a family medical history of reacting to vaccines, I'm at risk for DVT and blood clots due to other medical issues, lifestyle and medication regime.
While this is anecdotal, like 2/3rds of the people I personally know locally who have been vaccinated has had some pretty severe issues, but these are all people that generally work in the restaurant industry, retail or customer service who may have likely already survived an infection prior to being vaccinated, and this has been worrying me a lot. My housemate is currently on blood thinners for MRI verified blood clots and DVT that happened the day after her second shot.
So, for better or worse right now I'm on a "wait and see" basis with getting vaccinated and it's been driving me crazy. I am not anti-vax. I have had TDAP, pertussis and other vaccines in the past few years and hope I can tolerate a C19 vaccination. I want to get vaccinated but I'm also at a tenuous place and crossroads with work, income and some household changes where I really can't afford even 3-5 days of being knocked out by side effects from any of the given vaccines.
I'm bringing all of this personal medical history up because there's been a lot of energy and "culture war" activity about people being vaccinated or not. I've had good friends outright give me a ton of negative energy even when I'm trying to explain to them that I'm under professional advice to wait and see, or at least wait until I know I can afford to take the risk of more acute side effects.
For now I'm going to keep wearing my mask indoors or in close quarters outdoors. I am still limiting my social contact. Thankfully one of my jobs is working from home, and when I'm working in the restaurant I gear up for battle and am constantly washing or sanitizing my hands and wearing an N95 mask.
Please do get vaccinated. But also be mindful that it isn't a black or white issue or easy choice for everyone. Some of us can't get it yet. There's going to also be demographics and segments of our population that are at elevated risk for side effects, or just can't get access to it yet due to poverty or lack of ID or other issues.
posted by loquacious at 9:29 AM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
My most recent day-ruiner was reading an account of an otherwise-healthy, fully vaccinated, 43 year old woman who used to run three miles every day until she caught a mild breakthrough case of Covid from her son. Two months later, she’s still struggling with breathlessness, fatigue, and exercise intolerance.
So, this isn't really directed at you specifically, but mostly a gripe about how society talks about long haul as scary.
This story is just as sad for a 43 year old woman who DIDN'T run three miles every day who now struggles with those things. Hell, it's just as sad for a 50 year old, or a 25 year old. We've had a whole year plus to learn that even people who exercise are at risk of Long Haul so feel free to leave those details out. As a mildly out of shape guy who's long haul symptoms kept him from all the stuff he loved for that year, I'm kind of sick of only hearing about fit people's suffering.
posted by Gygesringtone at 9:35 AM on May 26, 2021 [22 favorites]
So, this isn't really directed at you specifically, but mostly a gripe about how society talks about long haul as scary.
This story is just as sad for a 43 year old woman who DIDN'T run three miles every day who now struggles with those things. Hell, it's just as sad for a 50 year old, or a 25 year old. We've had a whole year plus to learn that even people who exercise are at risk of Long Haul so feel free to leave those details out. As a mildly out of shape guy who's long haul symptoms kept him from all the stuff he loved for that year, I'm kind of sick of only hearing about fit people's suffering.
posted by Gygesringtone at 9:35 AM on May 26, 2021 [22 favorites]
Unfortunately I feel like those details are necessary to get through to the "they were going to die soon anyway" crowd. (And it's been very traumatic for me to realize that that crowd was my own brother and by "they" he was talking about my husband and he still did not care.)
posted by bleep at 9:38 AM on May 26, 2021 [11 favorites]
posted by bleep at 9:38 AM on May 26, 2021 [11 favorites]
I'll keep my mask on for a while, even though I'm vaccinated.
You and me, Flight Hardware, you and me.
And even with the new relaxation of rules, I say the same thing to people I see with a mask over their mouth only:
You protect no one -- not yourself nor anyone you meet -- with your nose out like that.
posted by y2karl at 9:50 AM on May 26, 2021
You and me, Flight Hardware, you and me.
And even with the new relaxation of rules, I say the same thing to people I see with a mask over their mouth only:
You protect no one -- not yourself nor anyone you meet -- with your nose out like that.
posted by y2karl at 9:50 AM on May 26, 2021
loquacious: Please do get vaccinated. But also be mindful that it isn't a black or white issue or easy choice for everyone. Some of us can't get it yet.
That's just another reason for those who can. So that we can help protect those who can't.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:08 AM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
That's just another reason for those who can. So that we can help protect those who can't.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:08 AM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
I created a new post to cover recent news stories and developments regarding the lab accident theory.
posted by interogative mood at 10:41 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:41 AM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
I want to make a quick argument for removing masks from vaccinated people, in the form of a FAQ:
I'm concerned that the vaccines won't stand up to future variants.
Variants pop up through huge numbers of people with the virus. As vaccinated people are so much less likely to contract or spread the virus, they will not meaningfully contribute to this possibility. If, at some point, a variant appears that is more likely to break through the vaccines, donning masks until a booster exists would, at that point, be wise. We'd likely have a lot of heads up, because variants don't arrive in your neighborhood overnight!
Vaccines are only 90% effective, right? What about the 10%?
First, that 10% breakthrough is less severe, and much less likely to spread the virus. Sources posted above. Second, 10% of USA numbers today (it's end of May 21) vs November 2020 is a very different story. The chances of getting the virus, vaccine or no, is 10% less than during those surges, and adding the vaccine to that makes it only 1%. This rate is well, well below the reproduction rate needed to spread covid broadly. Last, the actual breakthrough covid rate is more like 0.01%, not 10%. So, for some reason, those numbers are off by a factor of 100. The breakthrough covid is extremely rare so far!
Just because the USA has a lot of vaccines, doesn't mean other countries do!
Mask up in other countries then!
Wait, why do people care if other people are masked up? Mind your own business.
People wearing masks is a social contract, in a way. If one person wears a mask, it puts pressure on those around to make them feel comfortable. In some ways, it feels accusatory. "What do you have that can hurt me? How are you so selfish by not wearing a mask? How dare you?" Which is a feeling I get from reading about masks on the blue.
I'm not saying that we shouldn't try to make each other comfortable. I don a mask when requested or I ask if uncertain. But, this is why people may care what other people do. The implication, whether we like it or not, of one person wearing a mask, is that they feel threatened by others.
Wearing a mask doesn't hurt, so why not?
1. Wearing a mask DOES hurt. I have a big nose. It gets chafed. Sometimes smaller masks pull on my ears and make them sore.
2. I'm incredibly dependent on social cues and a little hard of hearing. I am an extrovert - masked conversations are a poor replacement for real ones.
3. Wearing a mask makes it harder to breathe. I'm not going to say it limits your oxygen, or anything like that, but I've ran in masks before and without, and it's simply easier to breathe without one, especially n95s.
4. I can't sip my soda while I walk around with a mask on! Well, I can, but you know, it's so inconvenient!
You might look at that list above, and say, well, those are pretty minor, petty reasons. You're right! But, considering my odds of getting covid from walking through the grocery store unmasked are 10x less than severe injury from a car crash after driving 50 miles, I would say my petty reasons for wanting myself (and others) to remove masks are less minor than the reasons to keep them on!
posted by bbqturtle at 11:53 AM on May 26, 2021 [9 favorites]
I'm concerned that the vaccines won't stand up to future variants.
Variants pop up through huge numbers of people with the virus. As vaccinated people are so much less likely to contract or spread the virus, they will not meaningfully contribute to this possibility. If, at some point, a variant appears that is more likely to break through the vaccines, donning masks until a booster exists would, at that point, be wise. We'd likely have a lot of heads up, because variants don't arrive in your neighborhood overnight!
Vaccines are only 90% effective, right? What about the 10%?
First, that 10% breakthrough is less severe, and much less likely to spread the virus. Sources posted above. Second, 10% of USA numbers today (it's end of May 21) vs November 2020 is a very different story. The chances of getting the virus, vaccine or no, is 10% less than during those surges, and adding the vaccine to that makes it only 1%. This rate is well, well below the reproduction rate needed to spread covid broadly. Last, the actual breakthrough covid rate is more like 0.01%, not 10%. So, for some reason, those numbers are off by a factor of 100. The breakthrough covid is extremely rare so far!
Just because the USA has a lot of vaccines, doesn't mean other countries do!
Mask up in other countries then!
Wait, why do people care if other people are masked up? Mind your own business.
People wearing masks is a social contract, in a way. If one person wears a mask, it puts pressure on those around to make them feel comfortable. In some ways, it feels accusatory. "What do you have that can hurt me? How are you so selfish by not wearing a mask? How dare you?" Which is a feeling I get from reading about masks on the blue.
I'm not saying that we shouldn't try to make each other comfortable. I don a mask when requested or I ask if uncertain. But, this is why people may care what other people do. The implication, whether we like it or not, of one person wearing a mask, is that they feel threatened by others.
Wearing a mask doesn't hurt, so why not?
1. Wearing a mask DOES hurt. I have a big nose. It gets chafed. Sometimes smaller masks pull on my ears and make them sore.
2. I'm incredibly dependent on social cues and a little hard of hearing. I am an extrovert - masked conversations are a poor replacement for real ones.
3. Wearing a mask makes it harder to breathe. I'm not going to say it limits your oxygen, or anything like that, but I've ran in masks before and without, and it's simply easier to breathe without one, especially n95s.
4. I can't sip my soda while I walk around with a mask on! Well, I can, but you know, it's so inconvenient!
You might look at that list above, and say, well, those are pretty minor, petty reasons. You're right! But, considering my odds of getting covid from walking through the grocery store unmasked are 10x less than severe injury from a car crash after driving 50 miles, I would say my petty reasons for wanting myself (and others) to remove masks are less minor than the reasons to keep them on!
posted by bbqturtle at 11:53 AM on May 26, 2021 [9 favorites]
But the people working at the grocery store have to be there for 8 hours.
posted by bleep at 12:03 PM on May 26, 2021 [27 favorites]
posted by bleep at 12:03 PM on May 26, 2021 [27 favorites]
The implication, whether we like it or not, of one person wearing a mask, is that they feel threatened by others.
if the science is to be our guide, the best argument for wearing a mask is not to protect yourself from the virus, but to stop yourself from not spread it to others.
If you're infected, the mask filters whatever you're exhaling. Or a lot of it anyway. Whereas, that mask is only really protecting your nostrils and mouth. The eyes are a common way for a virus to enter the body.
It's true that many wearing masks are probably doing it mainly for their perceived own benefit. It's also true that some perceive a person wearing a mask as feeling threatened by others. The science doesn't back these perceptions up.
posted by philip-random at 12:26 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
if the science is to be our guide, the best argument for wearing a mask is not to protect yourself from the virus, but to stop yourself from not spread it to others.
If you're infected, the mask filters whatever you're exhaling. Or a lot of it anyway. Whereas, that mask is only really protecting your nostrils and mouth. The eyes are a common way for a virus to enter the body.
It's true that many wearing masks are probably doing it mainly for their perceived own benefit. It's also true that some perceive a person wearing a mask as feeling threatened by others. The science doesn't back these perceptions up.
posted by philip-random at 12:26 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
It's also true that some perceive a person wearing a mask as feeling threatened by others. The science doesn't back these perceptions up.
Science might not back it up but the psychology of hearing people say "I'm not doing X because I don't care what happens to you if I don't" for a whole year will identify that concept as a threat and flag it for concern I think. Then those people go on to extend X from wearing a mask to getting a vaccine. I'm not going to suddenly not be threatened by people who have been threatening everyone this whole time.
posted by bleep at 12:35 PM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
Science might not back it up but the psychology of hearing people say "I'm not doing X because I don't care what happens to you if I don't" for a whole year will identify that concept as a threat and flag it for concern I think. Then those people go on to extend X from wearing a mask to getting a vaccine. I'm not going to suddenly not be threatened by people who have been threatening everyone this whole time.
posted by bleep at 12:35 PM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
If I go to a movie theater and there are 100 other people in there, in a community where there are 200 known cases per 100K people and a 7-day average of 65 new cases per day and a 35% vaccination rate, and I'm fully vaccinated with Moderna but in a high-risk category, and not everyone is wearing a mask, and some of the people not wearing masks aren't vaccinated but I don't know how many.... how do I even calculate that risk? The risk to me is small but non-zero, and the risk to unvaccinated people is quite a bit larger than that.
If I knew that the theater required verification of vaccination status and strictly enforced (proper) mask wearing at all times for everyone not vaccinated? Smaller but still nonzero; masks are not perfect.
If everyone in there is fully vaccinated? Vanishingly small and I wouldn't worry about it.
Okay, now, how badly do I have to want to see a movie in a theater in order to risk a 1 in 1,000 chance of death or debilitating disease? When you put it like that, there is no movie I care about that much.
posted by Foosnark at 12:52 PM on May 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
If I knew that the theater required verification of vaccination status and strictly enforced (proper) mask wearing at all times for everyone not vaccinated? Smaller but still nonzero; masks are not perfect.
If everyone in there is fully vaccinated? Vanishingly small and I wouldn't worry about it.
Okay, now, how badly do I have to want to see a movie in a theater in order to risk a 1 in 1,000 chance of death or debilitating disease? When you put it like that, there is no movie I care about that much.
posted by Foosnark at 12:52 PM on May 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
I've noticed that when I'm wearing my bulkier-than-average mask, I've gotten negative comments from people who either want me to conform to their standards of "normal", or want to mock me for expressing what they perceive to be weakness. This is when there was a mandate to wear masks and everyone wore them. It's probably going to be worse when it's masked vs unmasked.
But when I see someone who's wearing what I perceive to be unnecessary precautions (face shield, gloves, goggles, hazmat suits, or huge respirator chemical cartridges), I just think that they need to do those things to feel safe, and that's fine.
It's not masked/unmasked that concerns me now - it's the mental thought process of the general population that will play a role in the next epidemic or disaster.
posted by meowzilla at 1:01 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
But when I see someone who's wearing what I perceive to be unnecessary precautions (face shield, gloves, goggles, hazmat suits, or huge respirator chemical cartridges), I just think that they need to do those things to feel safe, and that's fine.
It's not masked/unmasked that concerns me now - it's the mental thought process of the general population that will play a role in the next epidemic or disaster.
posted by meowzilla at 1:01 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
how do I even calculate that risk
Well, you can either do your best, or throw up your hands in the air, and say "I'm never going outside again!"
microcovid.org isn't perfect, but it leans more careful than it probably should. Let me punch in your info. Link. ~400 Microcovids, or
Because your vaccination rate is 30%, I punched in 300K instead of 100K for your case rate.
So, 400 microcovids is 1/2500. That means if you did that activity every day, it would take ~6.8 years before there was a 50-50 chance of getting covid. I'd encourage you to put in your actual state - your numbers of 200/100K seem a little high, but totally possible.
It's up to each person to decide what risk they are comfortable with. You get around 1 minimort for each mile you drive, so 400 microcovids is about the same danger as driving 400 miles. I would say, due to case rates and vaccine status, that the bar of "vanishingly small" has already been met.
posted by bbqturtle at 1:07 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
Well, you can either do your best, or throw up your hands in the air, and say "I'm never going outside again!"
microcovid.org isn't perfect, but it leans more careful than it probably should. Let me punch in your info. Link. ~400 Microcovids, or
Because your vaccination rate is 30%, I punched in 300K instead of 100K for your case rate.
So, 400 microcovids is 1/2500. That means if you did that activity every day, it would take ~6.8 years before there was a 50-50 chance of getting covid. I'd encourage you to put in your actual state - your numbers of 200/100K seem a little high, but totally possible.
It's up to each person to decide what risk they are comfortable with. You get around 1 minimort for each mile you drive, so 400 microcovids is about the same danger as driving 400 miles. I would say, due to case rates and vaccine status, that the bar of "vanishingly small" has already been met.
posted by bbqturtle at 1:07 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
To allay some concerns expressed above, "Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years, Scientists Find." (NYT)
“The papers are consistent with the growing body of literature that suggests that immunity elicited by infection and vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 appears to be long-lived,” said Scott Hensley, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the research.posted by PhineasGage at 1:16 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
I think we should continue make masks mandatory for schools and public transportation. My understanding is that high rates of mask usage over the last year has had a big impact in reducing the spread of flu and other respiratory illnesses over the last year.
posted by interogative mood at 1:23 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:23 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
I’m in Brood X territory, so my mask-wearing has smoothly transitioned from COVID prevention to cicada-flying-into-my-mouth prevention, which almost happened in 2004 and haunts me still. I will probably break them out again for pollen season next spring.
I expect to keep wearing them at any crowded event I attend this year, and if masks turn out to work against con crud that might be a forever thing.
posted by nonasuch at 1:39 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
I expect to keep wearing them at any crowded event I attend this year, and if masks turn out to work against con crud that might be a forever thing.
posted by nonasuch at 1:39 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
from COVID prevention to cicada-flying-into-my-mouth prevention
more protein for me
posted by elkevelvet at 2:12 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
more protein for me
posted by elkevelvet at 2:12 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
If I go to a movie theater and there are 100 other people in there, in a community where there are 200 known cases per 100K people and a 7-day average of 65 new cases per day ...
That’s a huge case count. The US is at 7 new cases per 100k right now. Per-state values peak at around 15. I think you need to be aware of the local prevalence in making risk decisions. If we go back up to 65 new cases per 100k, it’s a whole new ballgame.
posted by mr_roboto at 2:14 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
That’s a huge case count. The US is at 7 new cases per 100k right now. Per-state values peak at around 15. I think you need to be aware of the local prevalence in making risk decisions. If we go back up to 65 new cases per 100k, it’s a whole new ballgame.
posted by mr_roboto at 2:14 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
To allay some concerns expressed above, "Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years, Scientists Find." (NYT)
The word "may" is promising, but it is also carrying a lot of weight in that headline. Those who feel optimistic will point to it and note that said immunity is (to them) satisfactorally likely; those who feel pessimistic will pencil in ', Or It May Not' at the end because 'may' is not 'will' or 'does.'
“The papers are consistent with the growing body of literature that suggests that immunity elicited by infection and vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 appears to be long-lived,”
Same. Suggestion, appears to be, growing consistent findings. "Increasingly probable" and "Is" are different breeds of cat. This is not an accusation that those hypotheses are _wrong_, or that they are not based on the most current and accurate information, or that that specific piece of the COVID puzzle (that vaxxed people are safer) should just be thrown out. But...
The implication, whether we like it or not, of one person wearing a mask, is that they feel threatened by others.
They should feel threatened by others.
I do not say this to poke at fellow Mefites who, for reasons of their own, rejoice in their ability to lose their masks once fully vaccinated. I am going to suppress my usual caustic nature and, instead, force myself to be nice and remain quite civil, as site timeouts are no fun.
I am not threatened by those who are vaccinated and choose to manage their risks differently than I do. I am threatened by the people who, all along, even at the worst of the pandemic here in the States, have vigorously resisted wearing masks regardless of the risks involved. Who have not carefully considered the science, but rejected it unlooked-upon in favor of either a particular political stance or a simple mantra of "No one can tell me what to do." Who associate with other people who think similarly. Who take risks not because the odds of peril are small, but because they feel that rules that help mitigate risks do not apply to them because they are special.
Again, if you are here and you are reading this right now, it is extremely likely that what is written above does not mean you. But you know precisely whom I mean.
If there is a vector that will lead to future spikes and resurgences of infection, it will not be me and my fellow vaccinated, and it will not be the immunosuppressed. It will be ignorant people who choose to boycott vaccination because COVID is a Communist Plot to Undermine Trump. This is not three guys in Montana; this is a significant slice of the American population deliberately undermining the effort to mitigate COVID, because their news media tells them to.
And with relaxation of mask mandates, if your face is uncovered at my local grocery store, I can't tell which camp you're in (sane and science-following, or batshit crazy) at a glance.
So, yes, I will give you some stinkeye from afar for a while yet. Please do not take it personally if you feel that it is undeserved.
posted by delfin at 2:24 PM on May 26, 2021 [15 favorites]
The word "may" is promising, but it is also carrying a lot of weight in that headline. Those who feel optimistic will point to it and note that said immunity is (to them) satisfactorally likely; those who feel pessimistic will pencil in ', Or It May Not' at the end because 'may' is not 'will' or 'does.'
“The papers are consistent with the growing body of literature that suggests that immunity elicited by infection and vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 appears to be long-lived,”
Same. Suggestion, appears to be, growing consistent findings. "Increasingly probable" and "Is" are different breeds of cat. This is not an accusation that those hypotheses are _wrong_, or that they are not based on the most current and accurate information, or that that specific piece of the COVID puzzle (that vaxxed people are safer) should just be thrown out. But...
The implication, whether we like it or not, of one person wearing a mask, is that they feel threatened by others.
They should feel threatened by others.
I do not say this to poke at fellow Mefites who, for reasons of their own, rejoice in their ability to lose their masks once fully vaccinated. I am going to suppress my usual caustic nature and, instead, force myself to be nice and remain quite civil, as site timeouts are no fun.
I am not threatened by those who are vaccinated and choose to manage their risks differently than I do. I am threatened by the people who, all along, even at the worst of the pandemic here in the States, have vigorously resisted wearing masks regardless of the risks involved. Who have not carefully considered the science, but rejected it unlooked-upon in favor of either a particular political stance or a simple mantra of "No one can tell me what to do." Who associate with other people who think similarly. Who take risks not because the odds of peril are small, but because they feel that rules that help mitigate risks do not apply to them because they are special.
Again, if you are here and you are reading this right now, it is extremely likely that what is written above does not mean you. But you know precisely whom I mean.
If there is a vector that will lead to future spikes and resurgences of infection, it will not be me and my fellow vaccinated, and it will not be the immunosuppressed. It will be ignorant people who choose to boycott vaccination because COVID is a Communist Plot to Undermine Trump. This is not three guys in Montana; this is a significant slice of the American population deliberately undermining the effort to mitigate COVID, because their news media tells them to.
And with relaxation of mask mandates, if your face is uncovered at my local grocery store, I can't tell which camp you're in (sane and science-following, or batshit crazy) at a glance.
So, yes, I will give you some stinkeye from afar for a while yet. Please do not take it personally if you feel that it is undeserved.
posted by delfin at 2:24 PM on May 26, 2021 [15 favorites]
The US is at 7 new cases per 100k right now. Per-state values peak at around 15.
Citation, please?
According to the CDC, the average incidence (new cases) over the last 7 days in the US is 46.7 per 100k. In some states (Colorado) it's as high as 106.7 per 100k. There's only one state (CA) listed under 10 per 100k. As you note, the number you really want to know for community risk is not incidence (new cases) but prevalence (active cases), and specifically asymptomatic prevalence since the folks in respiratory distress aren't gallivanting to indoor dining or movie theatres (I hope). Those numbers are hard to come by, so we use the 7-day moving average incidence as an imperfect surrogate.
That's why so many people (including me) were gobsmacked at last week's announcement. We won't, of course, see the impact of this "go commando" decision for another week at least, due to incubation times. I think most of us knew we were heading into a post-Memorial Day surge, but we expected it would come mid-June, not literally post-Memorial Day.
posted by basalganglia at 3:24 PM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
Citation, please?
According to the CDC, the average incidence (new cases) over the last 7 days in the US is 46.7 per 100k. In some states (Colorado) it's as high as 106.7 per 100k. There's only one state (CA) listed under 10 per 100k. As you note, the number you really want to know for community risk is not incidence (new cases) but prevalence (active cases), and specifically asymptomatic prevalence since the folks in respiratory distress aren't gallivanting to indoor dining or movie theatres (I hope). Those numbers are hard to come by, so we use the 7-day moving average incidence as an imperfect surrogate.
That's why so many people (including me) were gobsmacked at last week's announcement. We won't, of course, see the impact of this "go commando" decision for another week at least, due to incubation times. I think most of us knew we were heading into a post-Memorial Day surge, but we expected it would come mid-June, not literally post-Memorial Day.
posted by basalganglia at 3:24 PM on May 26, 2021 [8 favorites]
Vaccine development now is more advanced than it has ever been in history.
Is there anything that is less developed now than ever before in history? I guess maybe we're worse at chariots?
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:32 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
Is there anything that is less developed now than ever before in history? I guess maybe we're worse at chariots?
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:32 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
I believe mr_roboto’s numbers are consistent with the NY Times Dashboard.
posted by chrchr at 3:33 PM on May 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by chrchr at 3:33 PM on May 26, 2021 [1 favorite]
According to the CDC, the average incidence (new cases) over the last 7 days in the US is 46.7 per 100k.
Your looking at weekly, not daily, I think. Note 7x7 ~ 47.
posted by mr_roboto at 3:38 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
Your looking at weekly, not daily, I think. Note 7x7 ~ 47.
posted by mr_roboto at 3:38 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
Yeah the NYT link shows daily cases (*averaged* over last 7 days), while the CDC link shows *total* cases over 7 days. 46.7 / 7 = ~6.67. You're both right!
posted by Roommate at 3:39 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by Roommate at 3:39 PM on May 26, 2021 [5 favorites]
Those dang denominators!
posted by basalganglia at 3:45 PM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by basalganglia at 3:45 PM on May 26, 2021 [2 favorites]
Is there anything that is less developed now than ever before in history? I guess maybe we're worse at chariots?
Damascus steel and RSS feeds.
posted by acb at 3:49 PM on May 26, 2021 [17 favorites]
Damascus steel and RSS feeds.
posted by acb at 3:49 PM on May 26, 2021 [17 favorites]
Is there anything that is less developed now than ever before in history? I guess maybe we're worse at chariots?
It would be a derail for this thread, but this is an interesting question. You should make an askme!
posted by paper chromatographologist at 3:50 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
It would be a derail for this thread, but this is an interesting question. You should make an askme!
posted by paper chromatographologist at 3:50 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
I am curious to know if basalganglia’s risk calculation has changed now that we are all on the same page with denominators and case incidence.
Also the thing to understand about vaccines is not so much that they’re better than they’ve ever been but that we’ve just had an amazing breakthrough and we could soon have lots of vaccines for things we’ve previously been unable to make vaccines for. E.g. there is currently an mRNA vaccine for HIV under trial.
posted by chrchr at 4:04 PM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Also the thing to understand about vaccines is not so much that they’re better than they’ve ever been but that we’ve just had an amazing breakthrough and we could soon have lots of vaccines for things we’ve previously been unable to make vaccines for. E.g. there is currently an mRNA vaccine for HIV under trial.
posted by chrchr at 4:04 PM on May 26, 2021 [3 favorites]
Damascus steel Advances in chemistry have allowed us to make much better alloys than Damascus. Scientists have been able to come up with a process that generates a steel with all the properties of the original Damascus steel. Their process may not be the process used; but it is based on known processes used in the old days.
posted by interogative mood at 5:48 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:48 PM on May 26, 2021 [4 favorites]
But the people working at the grocery store have to be there for 8 hours.
YUP.
It's great to read some comments about how this is affecting the people who work in the stores everybody seems super excited to visit maskless. There seem to be a lot of people arguing that it's not that likely to be a life-threatening or infection-causing situation and they're uncomfortable in a mask so I'm gonna focus on that aspect.
From a recent relevant article (CNBC): “While we all share the desire to return to a mask-free normal, today’s CDC guidance is confusing and fails to consider how it will impact essential workers who face frequent exposure to individuals who are not vaccinated and refuse to wear masks,” Marc Perrone, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, said in a statement. “Essential workers are still forced to play mask police for shoppers who are unvaccinated and refuse to follow local COVID safety measures. Are they now supposed to become the vaccination police?”
So I just have to say that all the comments about the discomfort people feel whilst wearing a mask make me think of the discomfort workers feel when they're just trying to do their job.
Please, wear a mask in places where other people are forced to be around you. Please.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 6:35 PM on May 26, 2021 [23 favorites]
YUP.
It's great to read some comments about how this is affecting the people who work in the stores everybody seems super excited to visit maskless. There seem to be a lot of people arguing that it's not that likely to be a life-threatening or infection-causing situation and they're uncomfortable in a mask so I'm gonna focus on that aspect.
From a recent relevant article (CNBC): “While we all share the desire to return to a mask-free normal, today’s CDC guidance is confusing and fails to consider how it will impact essential workers who face frequent exposure to individuals who are not vaccinated and refuse to wear masks,” Marc Perrone, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, said in a statement. “Essential workers are still forced to play mask police for shoppers who are unvaccinated and refuse to follow local COVID safety measures. Are they now supposed to become the vaccination police?”
So I just have to say that all the comments about the discomfort people feel whilst wearing a mask make me think of the discomfort workers feel when they're just trying to do their job.
Please, wear a mask in places where other people are forced to be around you. Please.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 6:35 PM on May 26, 2021 [23 favorites]
It's strange to find some of us (or perhaps just me) reinventing the idea of politeness. I don't mean "strange" in a judgmental way, since I think almost everyone here and in the reality-based community is operating out of good faith, but just interesting. One of the definitions of politeness is when you do something you yourself don't agree with, but which puts the other person at ease; they may be uneasy for rational reasons due to just being in a different position from you, or for irrational reasons that are still worth honoring. The rational justification for masking that I was groping towards above was that if you are unmasked, another person -- particularly someone vulnerable -- may reasonably worry that you are unmasked and unvaccinated. Wearing a mask puts them at ease and costs you almost nothing. But I only belatedly realized this is just a generic instance of politeness logic. Yes, I know my unleashed dog may be well-behaved, but a child or someone else seeing it bounding up the trail may not know that, and it is more polite to ease their worries and leash the dog in public areas. Yes, I myself may know I'm sneezing from allergies, but someone else may not be sure whether I'm unwell, so it's worth covering my mouth even if there's no real harm to be done. Yes, I know I didn't intend anything mean by what I just said, but there's a chance someone who doesn't know me might interpret it otherwise so I take pains to reassure them no harm was meant. Etc. It's a certain type of politeness (perhaps "considerate" is better), but it's odd that it's something we almost all of us do all the time in social situations, yet I think I'm not the only one who is earnestly reinventing the wheel when it comes to working out the logic of basic politeness.
posted by chortly at 7:02 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by chortly at 7:02 PM on May 26, 2021 [10 favorites]
but it's odd that it's something we almost all of us do all the time in social situations, yet I think I'm not the only one who is earnestly reinventing the wheel when it comes to working out the logic of basic politeness.
For what it's worth, many of us haven't been in what you might reasonably classify as a "social situation" in over a year.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:01 PM on May 26, 2021
For what it's worth, many of us haven't been in what you might reasonably classify as a "social situation" in over a year.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:01 PM on May 26, 2021
It's up to each person to decide what risk they are comfortable with
I'm not comfortable with the risk of another N months of lockdown, but that's not a risk I can negotiate as an individual. Instead it hinges on the aggregate effects of risk-taking by others.
Like with seatbelts, you could say that each person has to decide what risk they are comfortable with. But you could also say that as a society, we want to minimize the social trauma of having to scrape people off the windshield and then try to put them back together.
In making these decisions we should not just consider the injury to the individual, but also the harms to society as a whole, including the fabric of shared values, like the idea that there is such a thing as society in the first place, and the notion that within it, our destinies are interlinked.
posted by dmh at 11:56 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
I'm not comfortable with the risk of another N months of lockdown, but that's not a risk I can negotiate as an individual. Instead it hinges on the aggregate effects of risk-taking by others.
Like with seatbelts, you could say that each person has to decide what risk they are comfortable with. But you could also say that as a society, we want to minimize the social trauma of having to scrape people off the windshield and then try to put them back together.
In making these decisions we should not just consider the injury to the individual, but also the harms to society as a whole, including the fabric of shared values, like the idea that there is such a thing as society in the first place, and the notion that within it, our destinies are interlinked.
posted by dmh at 11:56 PM on May 26, 2021 [6 favorites]
bbqturtle: It's up to each person to decide what risk they are comfortable with
That is, paraphrased, what every unmasked or below-the-nose-masked person in the supermarket tells me when I ask them to please cover up. But it's not true. They are also deciding on the risk that others have to live with. Comfortable or not.
Masks are mostly for others. And that is why I will continue to wear them in stores and other indoor places, as long as the pandemic is ongoing, even after I'm vaccinated. (We were never encouraged to wear them outdoors.)
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:03 AM on May 27, 2021 [11 favorites]
That is, paraphrased, what every unmasked or below-the-nose-masked person in the supermarket tells me when I ask them to please cover up. But it's not true. They are also deciding on the risk that others have to live with. Comfortable or not.
Masks are mostly for others. And that is why I will continue to wear them in stores and other indoor places, as long as the pandemic is ongoing, even after I'm vaccinated. (We were never encouraged to wear them outdoors.)
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:03 AM on May 27, 2021 [11 favorites]
I am curious to know if basalganglia’s risk calculation has changed now that we are all on the same page with denominators and case incidence.
Nope. But I'm a pretty risk averse person in general. If case counts continue to drop through mid-June (the expected post Mem Day surge I mentioned), I might rethink.
It's just so bizarre to declare something over when it's very clearly not. For comparison, the incidence of HIV* in the US is about a quarter that of covid (13 new infections per 100k), and HIV sure isn't "over." And that's before we even touch the international inequalities.
I've said before, masks are like condoms, and I for one am going to continue wearing them when I'm in physical proximity to people whose vaccination status I don't know. It's a minor inconvenience to me (I already have to wear them 10 hr a day anyway; what's another 15 minutes at Food Lion) and it might save a life.
The author of TFA and I do agree that covid will likely become a background risk rather than a global pandemic, but I'm really put off by his framing, though I can't articulate why. It reminds me of the aggressive rhetoric of libertarians who insist that they are the only rational beings on the planet and everyone else are sheeple.
* Imperfect analogy for a bunch of reasons, the biggest of which is that HIV is now essentially a chronic disease; I suspect covid will be too.
posted by basalganglia at 2:06 AM on May 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
Nope. But I'm a pretty risk averse person in general. If case counts continue to drop through mid-June (the expected post Mem Day surge I mentioned), I might rethink.
It's just so bizarre to declare something over when it's very clearly not. For comparison, the incidence of HIV* in the US is about a quarter that of covid (13 new infections per 100k), and HIV sure isn't "over." And that's before we even touch the international inequalities.
I've said before, masks are like condoms, and I for one am going to continue wearing them when I'm in physical proximity to people whose vaccination status I don't know. It's a minor inconvenience to me (I already have to wear them 10 hr a day anyway; what's another 15 minutes at Food Lion) and it might save a life.
The author of TFA and I do agree that covid will likely become a background risk rather than a global pandemic, but I'm really put off by his framing, though I can't articulate why. It reminds me of the aggressive rhetoric of libertarians who insist that they are the only rational beings on the planet and everyone else are sheeple.
* Imperfect analogy for a bunch of reasons, the biggest of which is that HIV is now essentially a chronic disease; I suspect covid will be too.
posted by basalganglia at 2:06 AM on May 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
That is, paraphrased, what every unmasked or below-the-nose-masked person in the supermarket tells me when I ask them to please cover up. But it's not true. They are also deciding on the risk that others have to live with.
I think you misunderstand. You are deciding your own risk and the risk to others. Every day. But, even when it comes to risk to others, or 'politeness' as it may be, we still all make risk-based decisions.
Every time you get into your car, or order delivery, you are putting people at risk. Every time you walk next to a road, you are putting yourself at risk. Every time you use electricity in your house, you are putting yourself at risk. And so, you are asking yourself every day, what amount of risk am I willing to put myself and others through?
Many people on the blue, and otherwise, find it easy to make mask-related decisions. The rule of thumb, is to do what feels safest and isn't too much work. When in doubt, exercise caution.
Many people who care so much about protecting others, do not wear eye protection or N95 masks.
Why don't people that are very pro-mask usually not wear eye protection? Why do people who are very pro-mask continue to wear them outside? Why do people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks after the CDC guidelines? It's because the mask itself is more of a symbol than a risk-mitigation strategy. It's come to the point where many people are more apt to disagree with the CDC ruling then do a risk calculation.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over. The breakthrough case rate is 0.01%. Any activity you do maskless has less chance to harm those around you, then whatever form of transportation you took to get there (including walking).
I posit that people that are emphasizing the symbol of masks after vaccination are making a poor risk calculation. They aren't considering the risk of lack of social interaction. Of feeling threatened by your neighbors. By seeing "us vs them" every time you go to the grocery store. Those are risks too - low importance, but a constant low-importance risk is worse than an infantismally small high-importance risk.
So yes, you are choosing risks for you and those around you. But I ask you - do the math. Is 0.01% chance of getting covid, times the current infection rate of around 40/100K people, worth an combative and isolating existence, for you and those around you? Is there a specific infection rate where you will happily doff the mask? Because, even at 0 infections, if we get there, things will feel the same.
posted by bbqturtle at 5:28 AM on May 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
I think you misunderstand. You are deciding your own risk and the risk to others. Every day. But, even when it comes to risk to others, or 'politeness' as it may be, we still all make risk-based decisions.
Every time you get into your car, or order delivery, you are putting people at risk. Every time you walk next to a road, you are putting yourself at risk. Every time you use electricity in your house, you are putting yourself at risk. And so, you are asking yourself every day, what amount of risk am I willing to put myself and others through?
Many people on the blue, and otherwise, find it easy to make mask-related decisions. The rule of thumb, is to do what feels safest and isn't too much work. When in doubt, exercise caution.
Many people who care so much about protecting others, do not wear eye protection or N95 masks.
Why don't people that are very pro-mask usually not wear eye protection? Why do people who are very pro-mask continue to wear them outside? Why do people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks after the CDC guidelines? It's because the mask itself is more of a symbol than a risk-mitigation strategy. It's come to the point where many people are more apt to disagree with the CDC ruling then do a risk calculation.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over. The breakthrough case rate is 0.01%. Any activity you do maskless has less chance to harm those around you, then whatever form of transportation you took to get there (including walking).
I posit that people that are emphasizing the symbol of masks after vaccination are making a poor risk calculation. They aren't considering the risk of lack of social interaction. Of feeling threatened by your neighbors. By seeing "us vs them" every time you go to the grocery store. Those are risks too - low importance, but a constant low-importance risk is worse than an infantismally small high-importance risk.
So yes, you are choosing risks for you and those around you. But I ask you - do the math. Is 0.01% chance of getting covid, times the current infection rate of around 40/100K people, worth an combative and isolating existence, for you and those around you? Is there a specific infection rate where you will happily doff the mask? Because, even at 0 infections, if we get there, things will feel the same.
posted by bbqturtle at 5:28 AM on May 27, 2021 [7 favorites]
Why don't people that are very pro-mask usually not wear eye protection?
Because I have not heard anywhere that my eyes spread aerosols. In other words, my eyes are apparently not a source of risk to others. (I do wear glasses by the way. So indeed I don't not wear eye protection.)
(...) Why do people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks after the CDC guidelines? It's because the mask itself is more of a symbol than a risk-mitigation strategy.
I don't care about your CDC, which does not make the guidelines for us.
I'll say it again, more explicitly this time, and with feeling:
I will wear my mask to the store, even after vaccination, because the people in that store do not know whether I've been vaccinated. Some of them will feel more at ease when I wear something that clearly tells them, even from a distance, that I'm probably not going to spray them with virus particles.
And sure, in that way I'm using it as a signal, or a symbol if you will. I don't have a problem with that. It's a friendly thing to do. Many people will see me as less of a threat that way, not more of one.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:50 AM on May 27, 2021 [16 favorites]
Because I have not heard anywhere that my eyes spread aerosols. In other words, my eyes are apparently not a source of risk to others. (I do wear glasses by the way. So indeed I don't not wear eye protection.)
(...) Why do people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks after the CDC guidelines? It's because the mask itself is more of a symbol than a risk-mitigation strategy.
I don't care about your CDC, which does not make the guidelines for us.
I'll say it again, more explicitly this time, and with feeling:
I will wear my mask to the store, even after vaccination, because the people in that store do not know whether I've been vaccinated. Some of them will feel more at ease when I wear something that clearly tells them, even from a distance, that I'm probably not going to spray them with virus particles.
And sure, in that way I'm using it as a signal, or a symbol if you will. I don't have a problem with that. It's a friendly thing to do. Many people will see me as less of a threat that way, not more of one.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:50 AM on May 27, 2021 [16 favorites]
Is there a specific infection rate where you will happily doff the mask? Because, even at 0 infections, if we get there, things will feel the same.
Up until a couple of days ago, where I live, we were at zero infections. Things did not feel the same. It was a massive relief. The circumstances are quite different from the US, of course (fewer loons, but also we are not as privileged in terms of vaccination). Next time we reach zero, when we'll maybe have some noticeable percentage of the community vaccinated, I expect the relief to be at least as great.
posted by pompomtom at 6:13 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Up until a couple of days ago, where I live, we were at zero infections. Things did not feel the same. It was a massive relief. The circumstances are quite different from the US, of course (fewer loons, but also we are not as privileged in terms of vaccination). Next time we reach zero, when we'll maybe have some noticeable percentage of the community vaccinated, I expect the relief to be at least as great.
posted by pompomtom at 6:13 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Damascus steel and RSS feeds.
Roman concrete.
posted by pompomtom at 6:14 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Roman concrete.
posted by pompomtom at 6:14 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Thanks for your answer, basalganglia.
But this stuck out to me: For comparison, the incidence of HIV* in the US is about a quarter that of covid (13 new infections per 100k)
I found the CDC page that says 13 HIV infections per 100,000 people, but I think they’re using a different denominator again. I believe that’s per year. 36,400 new HIV infections per year as of 2018 vs. about 24,000 average COVID cases per day.
posted by chrchr at 6:30 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
But this stuck out to me: For comparison, the incidence of HIV* in the US is about a quarter that of covid (13 new infections per 100k)
I found the CDC page that says 13 HIV infections per 100,000 people, but I think they’re using a different denominator again. I believe that’s per year. 36,400 new HIV infections per year as of 2018 vs. about 24,000 average COVID cases per day.
posted by chrchr at 6:30 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
Every time you get into your car, or order delivery, you are putting people at risk. Every time you walk next to a road, you are putting yourself at risk. Every time you use electricity in your house, you are putting yourself at risk. And so, you are asking yourself every day, what amount of risk am I willing to put myself and others through?
But I'm not asking myself every day about these risks. I long ago reconciled them. They've become just part of the noise of life. Whereas Covid-19 is still something I think about every time I walk out the door. It's signal to that noise. In time, I suspect it will become just part of the noise but I'm not there yet and, based on the comments in this thread, I don't think many are.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over. The breakthrough case rate is 0.01%.
I am not a doctor, a scientist or a statistician. I've also only had one of my two shots, pretty much exactly three weeks ago which now means it should be taking as full effect as it can. I suspect that, barring any sudden upsurges in infection rates, that three weeks after my second vaccine is around the time I'll officially drop my guard, return to "normal" and allow all of my old day-to-day fears and anxieties to wash comfortably over me -- stuff like what autotune and Marvel movies have done to the souls of the populace, and my aging dog's inability to jump up onto my bed the way she used to, but she keeps trying.
posted by philip-random at 6:58 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
But I'm not asking myself every day about these risks. I long ago reconciled them. They've become just part of the noise of life. Whereas Covid-19 is still something I think about every time I walk out the door. It's signal to that noise. In time, I suspect it will become just part of the noise but I'm not there yet and, based on the comments in this thread, I don't think many are.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over. The breakthrough case rate is 0.01%.
I am not a doctor, a scientist or a statistician. I've also only had one of my two shots, pretty much exactly three weeks ago which now means it should be taking as full effect as it can. I suspect that, barring any sudden upsurges in infection rates, that three weeks after my second vaccine is around the time I'll officially drop my guard, return to "normal" and allow all of my old day-to-day fears and anxieties to wash comfortably over me -- stuff like what autotune and Marvel movies have done to the souls of the populace, and my aging dog's inability to jump up onto my bed the way she used to, but she keeps trying.
posted by philip-random at 6:58 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
I posit that people that are emphasizing the symbol of masks after vaccination are making a poor risk calculation.
Maybe some people are, but at one point we had an opportunity to help protect unvaccinated people by keeping the social-norm of mask-wearing in place so that a bunch of maskless vaccinated people wandering around didn't cause unvaccinated people to feel weird and go maskless. At least until we got to some high percentage of vaccination (like 75%). Essentially, the pandemic may be over for you personally strictly from the POV of virus particles, but your actions still have a social impact on people who aren't vaccinated.
All that said, we in the US sadly lack the required leadership and solidarity for this to have worked. At this point, masking has eroded so much, that I feel like we've crossed the point where trying to uphold the social norm to try to help the unvaccinated stay masked is a lost cause. The script has flipped and people wearing masks are slowly becoming outliers. So wearing one when you don't need one at this point is probably not having the effect of continuing the social norm and may even be having a negative effect. At least that's what I've observed locally.
So, we better hope that the unvaccinated remain masked despite the eroding norm and that the vaccination rate continues to rise quickly.
Roman concrete.
Like Damascus steel, that's also a myth
posted by delicious-luncheon at 7:13 AM on May 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
Maybe some people are, but at one point we had an opportunity to help protect unvaccinated people by keeping the social-norm of mask-wearing in place so that a bunch of maskless vaccinated people wandering around didn't cause unvaccinated people to feel weird and go maskless. At least until we got to some high percentage of vaccination (like 75%). Essentially, the pandemic may be over for you personally strictly from the POV of virus particles, but your actions still have a social impact on people who aren't vaccinated.
All that said, we in the US sadly lack the required leadership and solidarity for this to have worked. At this point, masking has eroded so much, that I feel like we've crossed the point where trying to uphold the social norm to try to help the unvaccinated stay masked is a lost cause. The script has flipped and people wearing masks are slowly becoming outliers. So wearing one when you don't need one at this point is probably not having the effect of continuing the social norm and may even be having a negative effect. At least that's what I've observed locally.
So, we better hope that the unvaccinated remain masked despite the eroding norm and that the vaccination rate continues to rise quickly.
Roman concrete.
Like Damascus steel, that's also a myth
posted by delicious-luncheon at 7:13 AM on May 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over.
To me, "Covid is over" isn't an individual-level determination but instead means a whole bunch of things policy-wise: that we can end government policies and programs that were instituted to help people negatively impacted by the pandemic, that businesses will likely stop doing many accommodations that have actually made life easier for people with even various bon-covid chronic illnesses or differing abilities, etc. In that sense, this sort of rhetoric upsets and angers me because I am most definitely not on board with saying that once people are fully vaccinated, they can tune out from paying attention to or caring about those policy and program issues. That may not at all be what Mefites in this thread are actually doing (or planning to do), but folks arguing in favor of the viewpoint in the fpp link aren't exactly explicitly saying that or addressing those concerns that myself and others in this thread have expressed.
posted by eviemath at 7:24 AM on May 27, 2021 [12 favorites]
To me, "Covid is over" isn't an individual-level determination but instead means a whole bunch of things policy-wise: that we can end government policies and programs that were instituted to help people negatively impacted by the pandemic, that businesses will likely stop doing many accommodations that have actually made life easier for people with even various bon-covid chronic illnesses or differing abilities, etc. In that sense, this sort of rhetoric upsets and angers me because I am most definitely not on board with saying that once people are fully vaccinated, they can tune out from paying attention to or caring about those policy and program issues. That may not at all be what Mefites in this thread are actually doing (or planning to do), but folks arguing in favor of the viewpoint in the fpp link aren't exactly explicitly saying that or addressing those concerns that myself and others in this thread have expressed.
posted by eviemath at 7:24 AM on May 27, 2021 [12 favorites]
Every time you get into your car, or order delivery, you are putting people at risk. Every time you walk next to a road, you are putting yourself at risk. Every time you use electricity in your house, you are putting yourself at risk. And so, you are asking yourself every day, what amount of risk am I willing to put myself and others through?
I posit that people that are emphasizing the symbol of masks after vaccination are making a poor risk calculation. They aren't considering the risk of lack of social interaction. Of feeling threatened by your neighbors. By seeing "us vs them" every time you go to the grocery store. Those are risks too - low importance, but a constant low-importance risk is worse than an infantismally small high-importance risk.
It's not an either-or. It just isn't.
If I am driving to the store, I am taking the associated risks of driving whether COVID exists or not. Whether or not I wear a mask in that store doesn't affect my odds of hitting/being hit by another car on the way there or on the way home, so it's kind of... irrelevant.
Social interaction is a choice that you make, COVID or no COVID. It is not as if even the temporary stay-at-home orders closed off phone calls, Skype/Zoom/Facetime, online gaming, Discord, and text messaging and lowered the Cones of Silence around us all. We still had ways of seeing and hearing and responding to each other in real-time, generally speaking. Voices are capable of passing through cloth masks and reaching the human ear; we were not reduced to flailing pantomimes and Charades should we encounter someone we knew at Wal-Mart.
Your desired _method_ of social interaction may vary from that of others. If your life is not complete unless you are shouldering up to strangers at a bar, let's say, or surrounded by thousands of screaming fans in a stadium, or packed so tightly onto a dance floor that periodic hydration is necessary to avoid heatstroke, well... that's your own lookout. But the "risk" of doing without such heavy-social-interaction pastimes is, well, zero for an awful lot of people.
The risk of feeling threatened by our neighbors, of an "us vs. them" sensation creeping up upon us, is basically a solid 1 in America... because we are Americans. This is how we are wired, how we have been programmed; to fear that which is different. This was not created by COVID; it will not go away when COVID recedes. The mask/maskless divide did help highlight these irreconcilable differences, as surely as a guy in a Bernie T-shirt exchanging uneasy stares with a girl in a MAGA hat would. It assisted us in identifying who's more concerned about "we" and who's only concerned about "me" amongst the people and businesses and coworkers with whom we interact.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over.
As noted, the last three words translate to "the probability of a strong negative outcome directly caused by COVID for you IS over."
But you live in a world, a country, a state, a neighborhood where it still exists, and around others for whom it is not over, and around others who are defiantly declaring that for them, it will NEVER be over because they will never accept the first part of that statement.
And that's important, too.
posted by delfin at 7:35 AM on May 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
I posit that people that are emphasizing the symbol of masks after vaccination are making a poor risk calculation. They aren't considering the risk of lack of social interaction. Of feeling threatened by your neighbors. By seeing "us vs them" every time you go to the grocery store. Those are risks too - low importance, but a constant low-importance risk is worse than an infantismally small high-importance risk.
It's not an either-or. It just isn't.
If I am driving to the store, I am taking the associated risks of driving whether COVID exists or not. Whether or not I wear a mask in that store doesn't affect my odds of hitting/being hit by another car on the way there or on the way home, so it's kind of... irrelevant.
Social interaction is a choice that you make, COVID or no COVID. It is not as if even the temporary stay-at-home orders closed off phone calls, Skype/Zoom/Facetime, online gaming, Discord, and text messaging and lowered the Cones of Silence around us all. We still had ways of seeing and hearing and responding to each other in real-time, generally speaking. Voices are capable of passing through cloth masks and reaching the human ear; we were not reduced to flailing pantomimes and Charades should we encounter someone we knew at Wal-Mart.
Your desired _method_ of social interaction may vary from that of others. If your life is not complete unless you are shouldering up to strangers at a bar, let's say, or surrounded by thousands of screaming fans in a stadium, or packed so tightly onto a dance floor that periodic hydration is necessary to avoid heatstroke, well... that's your own lookout. But the "risk" of doing without such heavy-social-interaction pastimes is, well, zero for an awful lot of people.
The risk of feeling threatened by our neighbors, of an "us vs. them" sensation creeping up upon us, is basically a solid 1 in America... because we are Americans. This is how we are wired, how we have been programmed; to fear that which is different. This was not created by COVID; it will not go away when COVID recedes. The mask/maskless divide did help highlight these irreconcilable differences, as surely as a guy in a Bernie T-shirt exchanging uneasy stares with a girl in a MAGA hat would. It assisted us in identifying who's more concerned about "we" and who's only concerned about "me" amongst the people and businesses and coworkers with whom we interact.
Once you are vaccinated, Covid IS over.
As noted, the last three words translate to "the probability of a strong negative outcome directly caused by COVID for you IS over."
But you live in a world, a country, a state, a neighborhood where it still exists, and around others for whom it is not over, and around others who are defiantly declaring that for them, it will NEVER be over because they will never accept the first part of that statement.
And that's important, too.
posted by delfin at 7:35 AM on May 27, 2021 [9 favorites]
a guy in a Bernie T-shirt exchanging uneasy stares with a girl in a MAGA hat
Someone is definitely scripting this as a rom-com for Netflix as we speak.
posted by thivaia at 7:42 AM on May 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
Someone is definitely scripting this as a rom-com for Netflix as we speak.
posted by thivaia at 7:42 AM on May 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
The mask/maskless divide did help highlight these irreconcilable differences, as surely as a guy in a Bernie T-shirt exchanging uneasy stares with a girl in a MAGA hat would. It assisted us in identifying who's more concerned about "we" and who's only concerned about "me" amongst the people and businesses and coworkers with whom we interact.
Wearing a Bernie T-shirt is an action toward divisiveness. So is wearing a MAGA hat. So is, wearing a mask, when statistically, you really, really, really don't need to. Just because divides exist in America for many who plant their feet and refuse to budge, doesn't mean that the problem is America. Supporting a specific movement is fine, and it's nice that America allows you to. But that doesn't mean that any political stance is not, inherently divisive. For me, I don't wear political shirts, or masks (because I'm vaccinated, unless a business requires or on public transit). I smile at strangers and try to be helpful. I shovel the old neighbors sidewalk, even though I know they are trump supporters. Divisiveness for divisiveness's sake is rarely worth it.
At this point, masking has eroded so much, that I feel like we've crossed the point where trying to uphold the social norm to try to help the unvaccinated stay masked is a lost cause.
Putting on a mask, even though you don't need to, will actually discourage others to wear masks, because it makes it a symbol, not a device. A symbol they don't agree with. So, not only would continuing to wear one not 'uphold the norm' but in fact, it would make it a 'social norm' instead of a 'thing we do to stop the spread of covid'.
posted by bbqturtle at 7:49 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
Wearing a Bernie T-shirt is an action toward divisiveness. So is wearing a MAGA hat. So is, wearing a mask, when statistically, you really, really, really don't need to. Just because divides exist in America for many who plant their feet and refuse to budge, doesn't mean that the problem is America. Supporting a specific movement is fine, and it's nice that America allows you to. But that doesn't mean that any political stance is not, inherently divisive. For me, I don't wear political shirts, or masks (because I'm vaccinated, unless a business requires or on public transit). I smile at strangers and try to be helpful. I shovel the old neighbors sidewalk, even though I know they are trump supporters. Divisiveness for divisiveness's sake is rarely worth it.
At this point, masking has eroded so much, that I feel like we've crossed the point where trying to uphold the social norm to try to help the unvaccinated stay masked is a lost cause.
Putting on a mask, even though you don't need to, will actually discourage others to wear masks, because it makes it a symbol, not a device. A symbol they don't agree with. So, not only would continuing to wear one not 'uphold the norm' but in fact, it would make it a 'social norm' instead of a 'thing we do to stop the spread of covid'.
posted by bbqturtle at 7:49 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
bbqturtle, you are doing the most astonishing thing here in that the more you comment, the less you manage to make your point.
posted by mochapickle at 7:54 AM on May 27, 2021 [21 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 7:54 AM on May 27, 2021 [21 favorites]
Maybe some people are, but at one point we had an opportunity to help protect unvaccinated people by keeping the social-norm of mask-wearing in place so that a bunch of maskless vaccinated people wandering around didn't cause unvaccinated people to feel weird and go maskless. At least until we got to some high percentage of vaccination (like 75%). Essentially, the pandemic may be over for you personally strictly from the POV of virus particles, but your actions still have a social impact on people who aren't vaccinated.
The CDC's guidance change explicitly puts the onus on unvaccinated people; the underlying idea is to incentivize vaccination by giving a carrot (if vaccinated, you don't need to wear a mask) and a stick (if you stay unvaccinated, you are putting yourself at higher risk, in part because with fewer masks around you don't know whose air you are breathing). I think it is a fair question or criticism to say that you think a better approach would be to continue focusing on more of a "we are all in this together, let's take collective action by wearing masks" rather than the new fully individual approach. But, it was also becoming apparent that the percentage of people motivated to get vaccinated was declining, so maybe a new individual focus will get some additional people motivated (including by fear) to get their shots.
As has been pointed out many times, the guidance change leaves people with small children hanging; it also doesn't make a focus of people for whom the vaccines are not effective due to other conditions or medications. It also seems slightly premature since there are still plenty of people for whom equity has prevented access.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:02 AM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
The CDC's guidance change explicitly puts the onus on unvaccinated people; the underlying idea is to incentivize vaccination by giving a carrot (if vaccinated, you don't need to wear a mask) and a stick (if you stay unvaccinated, you are putting yourself at higher risk, in part because with fewer masks around you don't know whose air you are breathing). I think it is a fair question or criticism to say that you think a better approach would be to continue focusing on more of a "we are all in this together, let's take collective action by wearing masks" rather than the new fully individual approach. But, it was also becoming apparent that the percentage of people motivated to get vaccinated was declining, so maybe a new individual focus will get some additional people motivated (including by fear) to get their shots.
As has been pointed out many times, the guidance change leaves people with small children hanging; it also doesn't make a focus of people for whom the vaccines are not effective due to other conditions or medications. It also seems slightly premature since there are still plenty of people for whom equity has prevented access.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:02 AM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
By seeing "us vs them" every time you go to the grocery store.
This jumped out at me again so I'm going to babble some more, briefly.
The pro-/anti-mask VERBAL warfare caused some divides online. But for the most part, in the physical world, mask mandates did more to UNITE the American public than to divide it.
Why? Because, in the pre-vaccine era when surges were happening and there was no easy answer to the threat... compliance was very high in most public places, enough so that the cranks-of-the-cranks engaging in civil disobedience stood out like a sore thumb. People who agreed with the protective measures wore the masks. People who didn't agree with the protective measures gritted their teeth and _wore the mask anyway_ as the smallest possible concession necessary to continue participating in common society.
And life went on.
I could walk around the grocery store upstate and know that, in all likelihood, 3/4 of the people around me would disagree with my political views or my opinion of Trump or my stance on guns or my dislike of mayonnaise or any other opinion I may hold. But they were capable of clearing an obstacle one inch high -- wearing something over their mouth and (sometimes) nose -- in a time of need. So, for the purposes of coexisting with them while shopping, that didn't matter.
Putting on a mask, even though you don't need to, will actually discourage others to wear masks, because it makes it a symbol, not a device. A symbol they don't agree with. So, not only would continuing to wear one not 'uphold the norm' but in fact, it would make it a 'social norm' instead of a 'thing we do to stop the spread of covid'.
If mask-wearing remains a social norm, it encourages those who are in the vulnerable category (those who are not vaccinated) to continue doing what they have been currently instructed to do by the CDC, i.e. to wear masks in public places. If it is abandoned en masse, it encourages those who are in that vulnerable category to go maskless because there is no longer a condition REQUIRING it for entry to common places.
The only thing that is keeping masks on most non-vax faces is that "I'm going to get yelled at or denied entry if I'm maskless at Safeway" factor. Period. There is not going to be voluntary compliance because compliance needed to be compelled even before vaccines existed. The non-vaxxed need to keep masking for their own good. (And we are talking about the ideological non-vaxxed here, the "GUMMINT TRYIN TO CHIP ME" types, not the immunosuppressed types whose existence keeps getting glossed over by some.)
So it _is_ a symbol. A voluntary symbol. The non-vaxxed need masks for safety's sake. The vaxxed who wear masks are saying "You are wearing that because you are unprotected. I am wearing this out of recognition that YOU and many others are unprotected. If you have to keep wearing it in public, I can keep wearing it."
That's not divisiveness. That's closer to solidarity.
posted by delfin at 8:09 AM on May 27, 2021 [12 favorites]
This jumped out at me again so I'm going to babble some more, briefly.
The pro-/anti-mask VERBAL warfare caused some divides online. But for the most part, in the physical world, mask mandates did more to UNITE the American public than to divide it.
Why? Because, in the pre-vaccine era when surges were happening and there was no easy answer to the threat... compliance was very high in most public places, enough so that the cranks-of-the-cranks engaging in civil disobedience stood out like a sore thumb. People who agreed with the protective measures wore the masks. People who didn't agree with the protective measures gritted their teeth and _wore the mask anyway_ as the smallest possible concession necessary to continue participating in common society.
And life went on.
I could walk around the grocery store upstate and know that, in all likelihood, 3/4 of the people around me would disagree with my political views or my opinion of Trump or my stance on guns or my dislike of mayonnaise or any other opinion I may hold. But they were capable of clearing an obstacle one inch high -- wearing something over their mouth and (sometimes) nose -- in a time of need. So, for the purposes of coexisting with them while shopping, that didn't matter.
Putting on a mask, even though you don't need to, will actually discourage others to wear masks, because it makes it a symbol, not a device. A symbol they don't agree with. So, not only would continuing to wear one not 'uphold the norm' but in fact, it would make it a 'social norm' instead of a 'thing we do to stop the spread of covid'.
If mask-wearing remains a social norm, it encourages those who are in the vulnerable category (those who are not vaccinated) to continue doing what they have been currently instructed to do by the CDC, i.e. to wear masks in public places. If it is abandoned en masse, it encourages those who are in that vulnerable category to go maskless because there is no longer a condition REQUIRING it for entry to common places.
The only thing that is keeping masks on most non-vax faces is that "I'm going to get yelled at or denied entry if I'm maskless at Safeway" factor. Period. There is not going to be voluntary compliance because compliance needed to be compelled even before vaccines existed. The non-vaxxed need to keep masking for their own good. (And we are talking about the ideological non-vaxxed here, the "GUMMINT TRYIN TO CHIP ME" types, not the immunosuppressed types whose existence keeps getting glossed over by some.)
So it _is_ a symbol. A voluntary symbol. The non-vaxxed need masks for safety's sake. The vaxxed who wear masks are saying "You are wearing that because you are unprotected. I am wearing this out of recognition that YOU and many others are unprotected. If you have to keep wearing it in public, I can keep wearing it."
That's not divisiveness. That's closer to solidarity.
posted by delfin at 8:09 AM on May 27, 2021 [12 favorites]
Mod note: Couple comments deleted. bbqturtle you're coming on strong in here and I'm asking you to step back for a bit. Second, in general -- let's recognize people's situations are genuinely different (their individual risk factors and tolerance, and what's happening in their immediate community surroundings) and in a discussion like this, it's fine to talk about your own situation/how you're assessing risk for yourself, but please don't generalize that and start telling other people about their situation (i.e. don't frame points in second person as "your actual risk" etc). See the Community Guidelines for a bit more. Thanks.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:17 AM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:17 AM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
I think it is a fair question or criticism to say that you think a better approach would be to continue focusing on more of a "we are all in this together, let's take collective action by wearing masks" rather than the new fully individual approach. But, it was also becoming apparent that the percentage of people motivated to get vaccinated was declining, so maybe a new individual focus will get some additional people motivated (including by fear) to get their shots.
The CDC's approach may have been the correct but it's hard to say. Could we have held out and still gotten to higher rates? Who knows. I think far more disappointing is how we couldn't look out for each other for maybe another month or two to make sure we had a higher level of people vaccinated before going unmasked.
posted by delicious-luncheon at 8:40 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
The CDC's approach may have been the correct but it's hard to say. Could we have held out and still gotten to higher rates? Who knows. I think far more disappointing is how we couldn't look out for each other for maybe another month or two to make sure we had a higher level of people vaccinated before going unmasked.
posted by delicious-luncheon at 8:40 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
Half my state that's eligible is vaccinated. The rates have slowed to a trickle. About 43% of my total state is vaccinated. 1,329,000 out of 3,100,000. Saying it's over for my dumb state seems incorrect even if the risk for me now is very low. I'm going to be forced into an office where I will be very sure that most of the people are not vaccinated.
They weren't going to wear masks anyway, they haven't this entire time, but it's depressing all around.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 8:53 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
They weren't going to wear masks anyway, they haven't this entire time, but it's depressing all around.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 8:53 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
We just had a big thread about the CDC mask guidelines a few days ago. It would be nice if discussion in this one wasn't an exact replica of that thread and focused instead on the actual article topic, which is what the "end" of the pandemic might look like, including in places where the CDC isn't relevant.
posted by randomnity at 8:57 AM on May 27, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by randomnity at 8:57 AM on May 27, 2021 [5 favorites]
...actually it was 14 days ago, nevermind. Apparently the pandemic time blindness isn't over for me yet.
posted by randomnity at 9:00 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by randomnity at 9:00 AM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
The CDC's approach may have been the correct but it's hard to say. Could we have held out and still gotten to higher rates? Who knows.
Yeah, I think so many of us were just shocked by the timing and still are. When you have Fauci saying that unvaxxed have "misinterpreted" the CDC guidelines, he can't honestly be serious. There's no misinterpretation here, and I'm having a hard time understanding why they are framing it this way.
And I wonder how much of the current CDC position comes down to Dr. Wallensky -- when she came on formally as head of the CDC in January, she was super vocal in interviews about kids going back to school immediately. And while everyone wants kids back in school when it's safe to do so, I was really surprised by the aggressive timeline of accomplishing this, especially because she was saying that it was perfectly safe when guidelines like social distancing were followed, but it was clear that most schools couldn't meet those guidelines and it's super hard for most kids to follow them in the first place, so schools just did their best.
Here in my community, we had schools opening back up and then blinking open and closed as infections hit, and it led to a lot of chaos as kids and families had to adjust. After the CDC dropped the mask mandate, we had one local school district drop mask requirements for elementary schoolers. They just had one week of classes left, but none of those kids were old enough to be part of the current vaccination program. It's a pretty red region, so I'm not sure how many parents might have withdrawn their kids.
Would it have been better to have waited? I can't say.
My immunocompromised and medically fragile sibling has a high schooler, a middle schooler, and an elementary schooler and because there were too many unknowns, they've just kept all their kids at home since March 2020, but that's their particular situation and the risk approach they believe is best for them. The oldest is vaxed now and the middle kid is one dose into Pfizer, but they're still trying to figure out what next year will look like.
I wish the CDC had been more conservative or at least provided some more accessibility and transparency in how they are arriving at this guidance.
posted by mochapickle at 9:08 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
Yeah, I think so many of us were just shocked by the timing and still are. When you have Fauci saying that unvaxxed have "misinterpreted" the CDC guidelines, he can't honestly be serious. There's no misinterpretation here, and I'm having a hard time understanding why they are framing it this way.
And I wonder how much of the current CDC position comes down to Dr. Wallensky -- when she came on formally as head of the CDC in January, she was super vocal in interviews about kids going back to school immediately. And while everyone wants kids back in school when it's safe to do so, I was really surprised by the aggressive timeline of accomplishing this, especially because she was saying that it was perfectly safe when guidelines like social distancing were followed, but it was clear that most schools couldn't meet those guidelines and it's super hard for most kids to follow them in the first place, so schools just did their best.
Here in my community, we had schools opening back up and then blinking open and closed as infections hit, and it led to a lot of chaos as kids and families had to adjust. After the CDC dropped the mask mandate, we had one local school district drop mask requirements for elementary schoolers. They just had one week of classes left, but none of those kids were old enough to be part of the current vaccination program. It's a pretty red region, so I'm not sure how many parents might have withdrawn their kids.
Would it have been better to have waited? I can't say.
My immunocompromised and medically fragile sibling has a high schooler, a middle schooler, and an elementary schooler and because there were too many unknowns, they've just kept all their kids at home since March 2020, but that's their particular situation and the risk approach they believe is best for them. The oldest is vaxed now and the middle kid is one dose into Pfizer, but they're still trying to figure out what next year will look like.
I wish the CDC had been more conservative or at least provided some more accessibility and transparency in how they are arriving at this guidance.
posted by mochapickle at 9:08 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
Very disappointing to see everyone coming down so hard on bbqturtle for having a mildly dissenting POV on a topic that is genuinely complex.
posted by stoneandstar at 9:44 AM on May 27, 2021 [16 favorites]
posted by stoneandstar at 9:44 AM on May 27, 2021 [16 favorites]
Oh look, maybe CDC's changing guidance on masking did have a positive effect on vaccination interest.
Data obtained exclusively by CNN shows that interest in getting vaccinated against Covid-19 increased right after Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, announced two weeks ago that vaccinated people could take off their masks.posted by PhineasGage at 9:44 AM on May 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
"This shows incentives matter," said Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University School of Medicine. "People needed a carrot, and the carrot was the ability to drop the mask in most settings."
I cannot believe that with all of the commenters here trumpeting about slinging unfounded judgments at people based on the masks they aren't wearing and bragging about how they'll be scowling and stink-eyeing quite possibly perfectly science-believing, recommendation-following strangers, bbqturtle was the one asked to step back.
posted by kimberussell at 10:50 AM on May 27, 2021 [13 favorites]
posted by kimberussell at 10:50 AM on May 27, 2021 [13 favorites]
As has been pointed out many times, the guidance change leaves people with small children hanging;
I’ve seen a lot of people say this and I don’t understand it. The guidelines say that the unvaccinated should continue to wear masks indoors and that vaccinated people can forego masks in most situations. This applies to both children and adults. I’m not sure why specific guidance for people with small children is required.
posted by chrchr at 10:54 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
I’ve seen a lot of people say this and I don’t understand it. The guidelines say that the unvaccinated should continue to wear masks indoors and that vaccinated people can forego masks in most situations. This applies to both children and adults. I’m not sure why specific guidance for people with small children is required.
posted by chrchr at 10:54 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
That's good news, PhineasGage. According the article, it's unclear at this point how much the increased interest will directly translate into increased vaccinations, but I am hoping they will see a strong correlation.
posted by mochapickle at 11:19 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 11:19 AM on May 27, 2021 [2 favorites]
I cannot believe that...bbqturtle was the one asked to step back
It was the right choice. I was fired up. I was all about me trying to "correct" the too-cautious-hive-mind. Trying to correct someone, never leads to a pleasant discourse, especially online. Mods - thanks for resolving so eloquently.
...let's recognize people's situations are genuinely different (their individual risk factors and tolerance, and what's happening in their immediate community surroundings)
I think that I, and others as well, should do well to remember that this is true. It's too easy to imagine an evil-strawman on the other side the screen (or mask, as it were) that you are arguing with. But how many of us know someone with different risk factors or tolerance than ourselves?
I think I learned from this conversation that I need to try to think fond thoughts of those I see wearing masks outside, or alone in their cars, where previously I had mentally rebuked them. What a stupid thing to get divided over, including in this thread. I apologize for being a source of division at Mefi today!
posted by bbqturtle at 11:46 AM on May 27, 2021 [32 favorites]
It was the right choice. I was fired up. I was all about me trying to "correct" the too-cautious-hive-mind. Trying to correct someone, never leads to a pleasant discourse, especially online. Mods - thanks for resolving so eloquently.
...let's recognize people's situations are genuinely different (their individual risk factors and tolerance, and what's happening in their immediate community surroundings)
I think that I, and others as well, should do well to remember that this is true. It's too easy to imagine an evil-strawman on the other side the screen (or mask, as it were) that you are arguing with. But how many of us know someone with different risk factors or tolerance than ourselves?
I think I learned from this conversation that I need to try to think fond thoughts of those I see wearing masks outside, or alone in their cars, where previously I had mentally rebuked them. What a stupid thing to get divided over, including in this thread. I apologize for being a source of division at Mefi today!
posted by bbqturtle at 11:46 AM on May 27, 2021 [32 favorites]
bbqturtle: wearing masks outside, or alone in their cars,
A friend made fun of people who wear masks alone in their cars, and then I told her why I do that sometimes: if I drive a short distance from one store to another, and know I will need to mask up in both of these stores (as is the rule here), I figure that leaving the mask on means less fiddling with it, which is said to be better.
She felt that was a reasonable ground to keep the mask on inside the car for a few minutes. No one has to agree with that, of course. But just to explain my thinking. Maybe some other people think the same way.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:03 PM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
A friend made fun of people who wear masks alone in their cars, and then I told her why I do that sometimes: if I drive a short distance from one store to another, and know I will need to mask up in both of these stores (as is the rule here), I figure that leaving the mask on means less fiddling with it, which is said to be better.
She felt that was a reasonable ground to keep the mask on inside the car for a few minutes. No one has to agree with that, of course. But just to explain my thinking. Maybe some other people think the same way.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:03 PM on May 27, 2021 [4 favorites]
I was all about me trying to "correct" the too-cautious-hive-mind. Trying to correct someone, never leads to a pleasant discourse, especially online.
this is one of those lessons I seem to keep needing to learn online and off, though I am getting better at it, I hope. I recently got stuck in a living situation with an individual who both couldn't stop correcting people and HATED even a suggestion that something they'd said or done could be in need of correction. An infuriating mix. But I hope I came out of it realizing that nine times out of ten, the issue that wants correcting just isn't that dire, I can let it go ...
posted by philip-random at 12:11 PM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
this is one of those lessons I seem to keep needing to learn online and off, though I am getting better at it, I hope. I recently got stuck in a living situation with an individual who both couldn't stop correcting people and HATED even a suggestion that something they'd said or done could be in need of correction. An infuriating mix. But I hope I came out of it realizing that nine times out of ten, the issue that wants correcting just isn't that dire, I can let it go ...
posted by philip-random at 12:11 PM on May 27, 2021 [1 favorite]
I sometimes wear a mask alone in my car for short trips. I take it off if I want to use sunglasses, and if I needed corrective lenses, I would definitely never drive with a mask on. In general I am much more comfortable in a mask than my glasses-wearing girlfriend, and I am pretty sure that a big part of that comes down to glasses fogging. I realize that a properly fitting mask shouldn't leak up into the glasses, but I've never succeeded at finding that for my face-shape.
posted by aubilenon at 12:11 PM on May 27, 2021
posted by aubilenon at 12:11 PM on May 27, 2021
I cannot believe that with all of the commenters here trumpeting about slinging unfounded judgments at people based on the masks they aren't wearing and bragging about how they'll be scowling and stink-eyeing quite possibly perfectly science-believing, recommendation-following strangers, bbqturtle was the one asked to step back.
As I noted in my comment, which is obviously one of those that has drawn your ire, judging from your phrasing... I have no ill will towards bbqturtle or towards anyone here who shares their viewpoint. I will not stare into the dark sky tonight and curse your names. I am not impugning your ancestors. We are all at least nominally on the same side here -- prevention of COVID in the general populace. Using science -- which includes both virology and sociology -- to come up with a winning formula. We merely disagree on what the correct formula may well be, and how those of us on the protected side of the ledger should act to influence those who can be but are not.
But I stated quite clearly that I may very well be scowling and stink-eyeing quite possibly perfectly science-believing, recommendation-following strangers for a reason, and with a preemptive apology already given on my part. Not because they, themselves are bad people or that they are intentionally or carelessly risking harm... but because they and someone who _is_ and _has been_ risking harm, which includes a disturbingly high percentage of people I might encounter on a given day, will now be indistinguishable in public places. That does not make the former science-mocking troglodytes; it eliminates a clear, visual indicator that they are either not that or they are capable of submerging it long enough to satisfy society's demands. ;)
So whatever your mask choices may be, as long as you are doing it with all the facts in mind, goodnight and may your god go with you.
posted by delfin at 12:38 PM on May 27, 2021 [5 favorites]
As I noted in my comment, which is obviously one of those that has drawn your ire, judging from your phrasing... I have no ill will towards bbqturtle or towards anyone here who shares their viewpoint. I will not stare into the dark sky tonight and curse your names. I am not impugning your ancestors. We are all at least nominally on the same side here -- prevention of COVID in the general populace. Using science -- which includes both virology and sociology -- to come up with a winning formula. We merely disagree on what the correct formula may well be, and how those of us on the protected side of the ledger should act to influence those who can be but are not.
But I stated quite clearly that I may very well be scowling and stink-eyeing quite possibly perfectly science-believing, recommendation-following strangers for a reason, and with a preemptive apology already given on my part. Not because they, themselves are bad people or that they are intentionally or carelessly risking harm... but because they and someone who _is_ and _has been_ risking harm, which includes a disturbingly high percentage of people I might encounter on a given day, will now be indistinguishable in public places. That does not make the former science-mocking troglodytes; it eliminates a clear, visual indicator that they are either not that or they are capable of submerging it long enough to satisfy society's demands. ;)
So whatever your mask choices may be, as long as you are doing it with all the facts in mind, goodnight and may your god go with you.
posted by delfin at 12:38 PM on May 27, 2021 [5 favorites]
I have driven with the mask on, specifically because they advised that people not constantly be touching the mask and taking it off and on. I don't particularly want to always be off and on with them either.
However, I have to wear glasses to drive and the longer this goes on, the more I can't NOT steam up my damn glasses any more, so I really can't any more. I am pretty much either wearing mask and no glasses or glasses with no mask, but not both. Fortunately given my vision condition, that's fine as long as I'm not trying to read stuff long distance.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:11 PM on May 27, 2021
However, I have to wear glasses to drive and the longer this goes on, the more I can't NOT steam up my damn glasses any more, so I really can't any more. I am pretty much either wearing mask and no glasses or glasses with no mask, but not both. Fortunately given my vision condition, that's fine as long as I'm not trying to read stuff long distance.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:11 PM on May 27, 2021
Meanwhile, for as long as the virus poses a threat (and maybe longer), I have found the public transportation of my dreams.
(Completely non-sarcastically. If only every train and bus and such was like this.)
posted by delfin at 4:35 PM on May 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
(Completely non-sarcastically. If only every train and bus and such was like this.)
posted by delfin at 4:35 PM on May 27, 2021 [3 favorites]
Can we just give mask-wearers...acceptance? Grace? Peace with their choice? I work among a fair number of people who will wear them for their own primary, non-C-19 reasons and they really don’t want to talk about their mask with random people who project onto them. If someone else wears a mask, it’s not about you. Live and let live.
posted by childofTethys at 5:07 PM on May 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by childofTethys at 5:07 PM on May 27, 2021 [6 favorites]
In general I am much more comfortable in a mask than my glasses-wearing girlfriend, and I am pretty sure that a big part of that comes down to glasses fogging.
Ha, yes. The unenviable choice I face when I wear a mask, between uncorrected vision (astigmatism and short sight) and glasses-fog-impaired vision, has done more to keep me out of shops and off public transport than my fear of the virus itself.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 2:18 AM on May 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
Ha, yes. The unenviable choice I face when I wear a mask, between uncorrected vision (astigmatism and short sight) and glasses-fog-impaired vision, has done more to keep me out of shops and off public transport than my fear of the virus itself.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 2:18 AM on May 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
Ha, yes. The unenviable choice I face when I wear a mask, between uncorrected vision (astigmatism and short sight) and glasses-fog-impaired vision, has done more to keep me out of shops and off public transport than my fear of the virus itself.
This is loads of fun when you have balance issues and rely on sight to keep from falling over. Yes I have fallen over into the same snow drift three times in a row because my glasses fogged up and I couldn't see well enough to catch my balance again.
posted by brook horse at 5:08 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
This is loads of fun when you have balance issues and rely on sight to keep from falling over. Yes I have fallen over into the same snow drift three times in a row because my glasses fogged up and I couldn't see well enough to catch my balance again.
posted by brook horse at 5:08 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
I will admit total and complete bafflement at the idea that people wearing masks, in the middle of a pandemic, are the ones being threatening and divisive while the people strutting around breathing their plague into the air without masks are somehow the ones being reasonable and unifying.
The reasoning there totally eludes me.
posted by sotonohito at 6:15 AM on May 28, 2021 [13 favorites]
The reasoning there totally eludes me.
posted by sotonohito at 6:15 AM on May 28, 2021 [13 favorites]
the people strutting around breathing their plague into the air without masks are somehow the ones being reasonable and unifying.
I am not following your logic here. You can't breathe the plague on someone if you don't have it. The vaccinated people on this thread saying they will reduce or drop their mask usage are not giving anyone plague. Unless your position is that the vaccines ... GIVE people plague?
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks. Every single person agrees that the assholes who never wore and never will wear masks, and the assholes who refuse to be vaccinated despite eligibility and ability, are the problem here.
Scorning the people who have discussed this issue, in good faith, on this thread, as "strutting plague-breathers" though, that is pretty effing divisive if you ask me.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 6:51 AM on May 28, 2021 [11 favorites]
I am not following your logic here. You can't breathe the plague on someone if you don't have it. The vaccinated people on this thread saying they will reduce or drop their mask usage are not giving anyone plague. Unless your position is that the vaccines ... GIVE people plague?
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks. Every single person agrees that the assholes who never wore and never will wear masks, and the assholes who refuse to be vaccinated despite eligibility and ability, are the problem here.
Scorning the people who have discussed this issue, in good faith, on this thread, as "strutting plague-breathers" though, that is pretty effing divisive if you ask me.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 6:51 AM on May 28, 2021 [11 favorites]
I will admit total and complete bafflement at the idea that people wearing masks, in the middle of a pandemic, are the ones being threatening and divisive
put that way, sotonohito, it sounds like this vilifying of mask wearers is like the final pathetic (but dangerous) gesture of a moribund conformity that wants the old normal back preferably yesterday. I get that the science may say that the time for mass-masking is moving into the rear view, but the psychology of not immediately removing one's mask makes perfectly rational sense to me. Why on earth wouldn't you err on the side of caution given the potential downsides of getting infected? Or as my dad (a WW2 vet) commented more than once, "plenty of guys died in unfortunate situations in the days immediately after peace was declared. It was still very dangerous out there. Lots of still loaded weapons."
posted by philip-random at 6:52 AM on May 28, 2021 [7 favorites]
and on preview,
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks.
I'm not reading sotonohito's comment as being about anyone in this thread -- more what's going on out in their greater community. But I should let them speak to that.
I'm up in Canada, a province that has weathered the Covid year pretty well. We got off to a bad immediate start but quickly got on top of the threat and, certainly compared to our immediate neighbours (both to the east and south of the border) have done well. Yet nobody here is sounding the call for mass mask removal. We are talking about reopening businesses that have been closed for a long time and loosening the constraints on those that have continued to operate. But the de-masking stuff -- my guess is that won't really become a thing until well into summer, maybe in time for back-to-school assuming all goes well.
Standing outside America looking in, I do feel compelled to reiterate this:
it sounds like this vilifying of mask wearers is like the final pathetic (but dangerous) gesture of a moribund conformity that wants the old normal back preferably yesterday.
If you're not vilifying mask wearers, just questioning their grasp of the available science, fair enough. I'm certainly looking forward to a not too distant future where the masks are gone.
posted by philip-random at 7:06 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks.
I'm not reading sotonohito's comment as being about anyone in this thread -- more what's going on out in their greater community. But I should let them speak to that.
I'm up in Canada, a province that has weathered the Covid year pretty well. We got off to a bad immediate start but quickly got on top of the threat and, certainly compared to our immediate neighbours (both to the east and south of the border) have done well. Yet nobody here is sounding the call for mass mask removal. We are talking about reopening businesses that have been closed for a long time and loosening the constraints on those that have continued to operate. But the de-masking stuff -- my guess is that won't really become a thing until well into summer, maybe in time for back-to-school assuming all goes well.
Standing outside America looking in, I do feel compelled to reiterate this:
it sounds like this vilifying of mask wearers is like the final pathetic (but dangerous) gesture of a moribund conformity that wants the old normal back preferably yesterday.
If you're not vilifying mask wearers, just questioning their grasp of the available science, fair enough. I'm certainly looking forward to a not too distant future where the masks are gone.
posted by philip-random at 7:06 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
it sounds like this vilifying of mask wearers is like the final pathetic (but dangerous) gesture of a moribund conformity that wants the old normal back preferably yesterday.
I guess I just don't see any vilifying of mask-wearers in this thread or in the FPP. I see people saying they, themselves, aren't going to wear them anymore, and that is not the same. I do see a lot of people calling folks who are dropping masks post-vax selfish monsters, people who don't care about immunocompromised folks, BRUNCH EATERS (gasp) and plague-strutters.
Why on earth wouldn't you err on the side of caution given the potential downsides of getting infected?
Literally dozens of posters have explained in great detail why they will no longer be erring on the side of caution despite the potential downsides of (the extremely unlikely case of) becoming infected.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 7:48 AM on May 28, 2021 [11 favorites]
I guess I just don't see any vilifying of mask-wearers in this thread or in the FPP. I see people saying they, themselves, aren't going to wear them anymore, and that is not the same. I do see a lot of people calling folks who are dropping masks post-vax selfish monsters, people who don't care about immunocompromised folks, BRUNCH EATERS (gasp) and plague-strutters.
Why on earth wouldn't you err on the side of caution given the potential downsides of getting infected?
Literally dozens of posters have explained in great detail why they will no longer be erring on the side of caution despite the potential downsides of (the extremely unlikely case of) becoming infected.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 7:48 AM on May 28, 2021 [11 favorites]
The most resonant line of the FPP to me was actually this one, which echoes a thought I have been having about a lot of communities I hang around in (not just MeFi, but not not MeFi either):
The subtext is we’ll never really be safe, we dare not demask, the pandemic will never leave us. It’s almost as if some writers are reluctant to let go of the biggest disaster (and biggest story) of our lives.
I'm not accusing anyone of consciously preferring pandemic to not-pandemic but man oh man, there is definitely nothing "moribund" "pathetic" or "conformist" about wanting this nightmare to end! What on actual six earths!
I know that the lockdown lifestyle has been a welcome respite for some. I know that the adjustment will be significant. This has been life-defining for pretty much everyone (even if for some it has been positively so, rather than traumatically so). I'm not judging anyone for having a hard time wrapping their heads around it.
I'm sorry that the end of the pandemic will likely not bring about a new utopia or an introvert's paradise. I'm sorry that the end will not be clean and universal and that nobody will ever be completely fully 100% safe and some people will have to worry and contort their lives around this for longer than others. I'm sorry that there will be brunch again. But the pandemic still going to end, and some few things may be somewhat better after it does (particularly the mass death part), and it is OK to look forward to those things.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:01 AM on May 28, 2021 [7 favorites]
The subtext is we’ll never really be safe, we dare not demask, the pandemic will never leave us. It’s almost as if some writers are reluctant to let go of the biggest disaster (and biggest story) of our lives.
I'm not accusing anyone of consciously preferring pandemic to not-pandemic but man oh man, there is definitely nothing "moribund" "pathetic" or "conformist" about wanting this nightmare to end! What on actual six earths!
I know that the lockdown lifestyle has been a welcome respite for some. I know that the adjustment will be significant. This has been life-defining for pretty much everyone (even if for some it has been positively so, rather than traumatically so). I'm not judging anyone for having a hard time wrapping their heads around it.
I'm sorry that the end of the pandemic will likely not bring about a new utopia or an introvert's paradise. I'm sorry that the end will not be clean and universal and that nobody will ever be completely fully 100% safe and some people will have to worry and contort their lives around this for longer than others. I'm sorry that there will be brunch again. But the pandemic still going to end, and some few things may be somewhat better after it does (particularly the mass death part), and it is OK to look forward to those things.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:01 AM on May 28, 2021 [7 favorites]
This thread is dripping contempt for people who unmask. Mask-wearers are afraid of being made fun of for being too cautious, but it’s ok to call people following CDC guidelines plague-breathers, moribund nebulously evil people, etc. Totally makes sense. Very MeFi.
posted by stoneandstar at 8:19 AM on May 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by stoneandstar at 8:19 AM on May 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks.
However, there's a non-trivial cohort of people who are not vaccinated, but choose to lie about it who are not wearing masks. Now, being vaccinated maybe I have a 5% chance of catching a virus if I come in contact with an carrier, asymptomatic or otherwise, but given the liars out there, the threat they present isn't acceptable to me when the risk includes a month sedated on a ventilator.
I'm vaccinated and wear a mask. Anyone has a problem with that, that''s their problem, not mine.
posted by mikelieman at 8:24 AM on May 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
However, there's a non-trivial cohort of people who are not vaccinated, but choose to lie about it who are not wearing masks. Now, being vaccinated maybe I have a 5% chance of catching a virus if I come in contact with an carrier, asymptomatic or otherwise, but given the liars out there, the threat they present isn't acceptable to me when the risk includes a month sedated on a ventilator.
I'm vaccinated and wear a mask. Anyone has a problem with that, that''s their problem, not mine.
posted by mikelieman at 8:24 AM on May 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
Nobody on this thread, nobody, not one person, not even one half of one person, thinks unvaccinated people should stop wearing masks. Every single person agrees that the assholes who never wore and never will wear masks, and the assholes who refuse to be vaccinated despite eligibility and ability, are the problem here.
This is very true, and I wholeheartedly agree with this statement.
So the question that we face as a society is a simple one: how do we (as in government, private businesses, public events, etc.) cope with the continued existence of these assholes in substantial numbers, with the aim of maintaining public health and welfare?
Some believe that a combination of education, PR campaigns, pop-up state lotteries and dangling "you can go unmasked once you do this" will put more vaccines into assholes' arms than a "you must wear a mask while inside this building" policy will put masks onto assholes' faces. Or, rather, that the number of assholes who will say "oh, if I get the shot I can lose the face diaper? Sign me up" is greater than the number of assholes who will say "Cool, now I can go into Safeway barefaced and I don't have to do anything, and they can't stop me."
Yes, the "remove mandates, encourage vaccines" method does improve the mood and satisfaction level of those who _have_ been vaccinated and can now go about their day barefaced again. But, as we have noted above, they are not the problem. The assholes are the problem. The solutions need to be laser-focused on the assholes, and specifically on keeping unmasked assholes out of places where they can potentially spread infection.
And changing policy from "You cannot enter without a mask" to "Anyone can enter without a mask, with vaccination status strictly on the honor system" doesn't strike me as the best way to ensure that the assholes will come in masked.
posted by delfin at 8:51 AM on May 28, 2021 [7 favorites]
This is very true, and I wholeheartedly agree with this statement.
So the question that we face as a society is a simple one: how do we (as in government, private businesses, public events, etc.) cope with the continued existence of these assholes in substantial numbers, with the aim of maintaining public health and welfare?
Some believe that a combination of education, PR campaigns, pop-up state lotteries and dangling "you can go unmasked once you do this" will put more vaccines into assholes' arms than a "you must wear a mask while inside this building" policy will put masks onto assholes' faces. Or, rather, that the number of assholes who will say "oh, if I get the shot I can lose the face diaper? Sign me up" is greater than the number of assholes who will say "Cool, now I can go into Safeway barefaced and I don't have to do anything, and they can't stop me."
Yes, the "remove mandates, encourage vaccines" method does improve the mood and satisfaction level of those who _have_ been vaccinated and can now go about their day barefaced again. But, as we have noted above, they are not the problem. The assholes are the problem. The solutions need to be laser-focused on the assholes, and specifically on keeping unmasked assholes out of places where they can potentially spread infection.
And changing policy from "You cannot enter without a mask" to "Anyone can enter without a mask, with vaccination status strictly on the honor system" doesn't strike me as the best way to ensure that the assholes will come in masked.
posted by delfin at 8:51 AM on May 28, 2021 [7 favorites]
I feel like we're really going around in circles here. Or that my comments need to start wearing mustaches, at least? Sigh.
Jumping into the mask discussion, We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese, neither is anyone here saying that fully vaccinated(***) people have a significantly reduced, very small(*) chance of spreading the virus if unmasked. The comments are focused on the problem with a #NotAllUnmaskedPeople reaction to the concerns expressed.
(*) Exact probability of transmission via a fully vaccinated(**) person based on data available to date(**) ranges from pretty darn close to zero up to a still very small %, but keep in mind that this depends on prevalence of covid-19 within the specific community, not just on individual vaccination status.
(**) Given uncertainty in data at this point in time, that upper estimate is still potentially large enough to worry some immune compromised folks who have already been hyper-stressed for over a year now chance. We could question if this a scientifically "valid" worry, sure. In general, making policy decisions based on unfounded fears (eg. how white people tend to fear Black folks, or how Conservatives fear, well, everything) can potentially be quite problematic. Or we could try to understand that, as a previous FPP noted, this has been (and in many cases continues to be) an ongoing traumatic event for many people, and try to hold compassion for the variety of responses that people are going to have to that, that interact with the varying circumstances that people are in and experiences they have had over the past year and a half. And yes, that includes both folks for whom the increased uncertainty of having more people around not wearing masks but not knowing whether any given such person is fully vaccinated(***) or not is actually increasing their stress levels from a month or two ago, as well as folks for whom wearing a mask causes specific sensory issues or other difficulties that are adding on to pandemic trauma (not just causing inconvenience). So why not focus instead on thinking of ways to accommodate both needs - maybe pins that say something like "fully vaccinated(**) but will mask up for you" - or, you know, something short enough to be read quickly, and snappy enough that the folks who would happily lie about their vaccination status won't want to wear such a pin because it signals the wrong political thing or something?
(***) There does seem to be a lot of confusion (perhaps not on Metafilter, but definitely in general) about what "fully vaccinated" means. I've read a number of reports about people who ended up in hospital with covid-19 because they went out and celebrated the day after getting their first vaccine shot, for example, not understanding that (a) the first shot alone only confers something like 50% protection, and (b) it takes two weeks for each vaccine shot to reach full power, as it were. The proportion of people in the US who are actually fully vaccinated - 14 days past their second vaccine shot - was still below half, last I read earlier this week.
posted by eviemath at 9:55 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
Jumping into the mask discussion, We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese, neither is anyone here saying that fully vaccinated(***) people have a significantly reduced, very small(*) chance of spreading the virus if unmasked. The comments are focused on the problem with a #NotAllUnmaskedPeople reaction to the concerns expressed.
(*) Exact probability of transmission via a fully vaccinated(**) person based on data available to date(**) ranges from pretty darn close to zero up to a still very small %, but keep in mind that this depends on prevalence of covid-19 within the specific community, not just on individual vaccination status.
(**) Given uncertainty in data at this point in time, that upper estimate is still potentially large enough to worry some immune compromised folks who have already been hyper-stressed for over a year now chance. We could question if this a scientifically "valid" worry, sure. In general, making policy decisions based on unfounded fears (eg. how white people tend to fear Black folks, or how Conservatives fear, well, everything) can potentially be quite problematic. Or we could try to understand that, as a previous FPP noted, this has been (and in many cases continues to be) an ongoing traumatic event for many people, and try to hold compassion for the variety of responses that people are going to have to that, that interact with the varying circumstances that people are in and experiences they have had over the past year and a half. And yes, that includes both folks for whom the increased uncertainty of having more people around not wearing masks but not knowing whether any given such person is fully vaccinated(***) or not is actually increasing their stress levels from a month or two ago, as well as folks for whom wearing a mask causes specific sensory issues or other difficulties that are adding on to pandemic trauma (not just causing inconvenience). So why not focus instead on thinking of ways to accommodate both needs - maybe pins that say something like "fully vaccinated(**) but will mask up for you" - or, you know, something short enough to be read quickly, and snappy enough that the folks who would happily lie about their vaccination status won't want to wear such a pin because it signals the wrong political thing or something?
(***) There does seem to be a lot of confusion (perhaps not on Metafilter, but definitely in general) about what "fully vaccinated" means. I've read a number of reports about people who ended up in hospital with covid-19 because they went out and celebrated the day after getting their first vaccine shot, for example, not understanding that (a) the first shot alone only confers something like 50% protection, and (b) it takes two weeks for each vaccine shot to reach full power, as it were. The proportion of people in the US who are actually fully vaccinated - 14 days past their second vaccine shot - was still below half, last I read earlier this week.
posted by eviemath at 9:55 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
I suppose given how much of this seems to be coming down to "I don't want to feel judged socially by people I see as peers", Ohio's House Bill 248, "Enact Vaccine Choice and Anti-Discrimination Act " has a solution!
So this will solve the issue neatly, and given how model legislation spreads it may be coming to a state near you. You don't have to feel judged socially, it'll be illegal!
posted by CrystalDave at 10:46 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
A person, political subdivision, public official, or state agency shall not discriminate against, deny service or access to, segregate, require a facial covering or other vaccination status label for, or otherwise penalize an individual financially or socially for declining a vaccination as described in this section.But who is a person here? " "Person" includes an individual, corporation, business, trust, estate, trust, partnership, association"
So this will solve the issue neatly, and given how model legislation spreads it may be coming to a state near you. You don't have to feel judged socially, it'll be illegal!
posted by CrystalDave at 10:46 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Several derails deleted. Folks, if you're not going to participate in these threads with consideration for others and an awareness of when you've taken up enough space, please do not comment further.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 10:55 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 10:55 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
Idaho wins a special prize for state-level anti-mask insanity, as its Lieutenant Governor passed an anti-mask-mandate executive order while the Governor was out-of-state, only for the Governor to repeal it immediately upon his return. But, yes, conservative state legislatures are lining up to pass legislation akin to Ohio's to ensure that barefaced, unvaccinated people will have full access to go and do whatever they please.
I find it a little ironic that these are the same conservatives who also insist that people with guns, of any size and capacity, should also be given full access to go and do whatever they please.
A little bit on the nose, there.
posted by delfin at 11:04 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
I find it a little ironic that these are the same conservatives who also insist that people with guns, of any size and capacity, should also be given full access to go and do whatever they please.
A little bit on the nose, there.
posted by delfin at 11:04 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
Yes, which is ironic because the masks were never actually on their noses.
posted by mochapickle at 11:14 AM on May 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 11:14 AM on May 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
States and localities—even some semi-careful ones—were already removing mask requirements before the CDC said anything. The horse was already out of the barn. So far, cases have continued to decrease.
(As for me, I’m a complex free-thinking individual, I wear a mask...sometimes, depending on the context!)
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:26 AM on May 28, 2021
(As for me, I’m a complex free-thinking individual, I wear a mask...sometimes, depending on the context!)
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:26 AM on May 28, 2021
So far, cases have continued to decrease.
But deaths have been increasing for the past couple of days while testing has been declining. The decreasing number of cases may reflect a decrease in testing more than it does an actual decrease in prevalence. I am concerned for the holiday weekend. I think enough people are vaccinated (or have had the disease) that it won't cause an overwhelming increase in hospitalizations and deaths, but I think there is a good chance it prolongs an unacceptably high death rate well into the summer.
posted by jedicus at 11:36 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
But deaths have been increasing for the past couple of days while testing has been declining. The decreasing number of cases may reflect a decrease in testing more than it does an actual decrease in prevalence. I am concerned for the holiday weekend. I think enough people are vaccinated (or have had the disease) that it won't cause an overwhelming increase in hospitalizations and deaths, but I think there is a good chance it prolongs an unacceptably high death rate well into the summer.
posted by jedicus at 11:36 AM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
It is possible that two factors -- an uptick in vaccinations reducing vulnerability, and a removal of mask mandates increasing vulnerability -- can be working against each other simultaneously, and the benefit from the vaccines is currently stronger in terms of cases.
But that doesn't make the increased vulnerability okay, in and of itself.
posted by delfin at 11:53 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
But that doesn't make the increased vulnerability okay, in and of itself.
posted by delfin at 11:53 AM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
Dr. Ashish K. Jha of Brown University says the end of the pandemic is K-shaped on the Twitter:
In the 5 states with highest vaccination ratesposted by chrchr at 12:16 PM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
Compared with 2 weeks ago
Infections down 40%
Test positivity 1.2%
In 5 states with lowest vaccination rates
Infections up 3.9%
Test positivity 8.4%
Vaccinations will increasingly become key to infection levels in a community
Dr. Jha cites no sources in his tweet, and many replies to his tweet dispute his numbers (citing sources), so I'm not sure I'd trust it. Infections are generally down more in higher vaccination states, yes, but seem to be down across the board and certainly the differences are not as drastic as he's claiming they are.
posted by Roommate at 12:26 PM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Roommate at 12:26 PM on May 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
Has anyone seen any reliable numbers on how many of the newer at-home kit test results are going unreported? I’m hunting but haven’t had much luck. Several don’t automatically report, and I’m not sure how much of an impact they might realistically have.
posted by mochapickle at 12:28 PM on May 28, 2021
posted by mochapickle at 12:28 PM on May 28, 2021
But deaths have been increasing for the past couple of days while testing has been declining. The decreasing number of cases may reflect a decrease in testing more than it does an actual decrease in prevalence.
Testing has fallen a little bit in the last 90 days, from 415 per 100k to 305 per 100k, but the positivity rate is still falling so there's really no evidence for undertesting.
When testing drops and prevalence stays the same, the ratio of positive tests tends to rise. It's still falling, with a 7-day average of 2.6%, down 12.9% week-over-week (the previous 7 days was 2.9%). It's all consistent with a sustained exponential decline of case numbers of about 13% per week, every week, for the past month or so.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:09 PM on May 28, 2021 [6 favorites]
Testing has fallen a little bit in the last 90 days, from 415 per 100k to 305 per 100k, but the positivity rate is still falling so there's really no evidence for undertesting.
When testing drops and prevalence stays the same, the ratio of positive tests tends to rise. It's still falling, with a 7-day average of 2.6%, down 12.9% week-over-week (the previous 7 days was 2.9%). It's all consistent with a sustained exponential decline of case numbers of about 13% per week, every week, for the past month or so.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:09 PM on May 28, 2021 [6 favorites]
The Washington Post had some data on Covid rates for the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and basically that the unvaccinated rates are still pretty high, but the very low rates among the vaccinated were pulling down the averages.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:16 PM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:16 PM on May 28, 2021 [2 favorites]
I find it amazing how lonely it is to be the parent of a elementary school-aged child right now.
I feel that sentiment so much as well. My kid is turning 11 this summer, just under the age for vaccination, and I'm so filled with anxiety about what school in the fall is going to look like. As soon as the CDC guidance came out our school was like "no masks at recess!" and my kid is one of the few who still wears his outside. He has had a lot of anxiety about Covid this whole time, and he's had no problem wearing a mask outside of the house all the time. The only things he does indoors anywhere that isn't home is school and fencing class, and I just can't see that changing until he can be vaccinated. At the same time, it feels like all communal safety precautions, even for unvaccinated kids, are being dropped without much acknowledgment that this is deeply anxiety-provoking in a lot of kids and parents. The feeling of hypervigilance is not going to go away for me until kids are able to get vaccinated.
posted by banjo_and_the_pork at 5:55 AM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
I feel that sentiment so much as well. My kid is turning 11 this summer, just under the age for vaccination, and I'm so filled with anxiety about what school in the fall is going to look like. As soon as the CDC guidance came out our school was like "no masks at recess!" and my kid is one of the few who still wears his outside. He has had a lot of anxiety about Covid this whole time, and he's had no problem wearing a mask outside of the house all the time. The only things he does indoors anywhere that isn't home is school and fencing class, and I just can't see that changing until he can be vaccinated. At the same time, it feels like all communal safety precautions, even for unvaccinated kids, are being dropped without much acknowledgment that this is deeply anxiety-provoking in a lot of kids and parents. The feeling of hypervigilance is not going to go away for me until kids are able to get vaccinated.
posted by banjo_and_the_pork at 5:55 AM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
I think it's the classic case of hitting who you can reach.
Both groups are angry at the anti-maskers plague-spreaders. Some people with various legitimate concerns are angry that they now can't go anywhere in public and safely make judgements based on mask-wearing. Other people are legitimately seeking to follow CDC guidelines or who struggle with masks for various legitimate reasons are angry that they can't do so without being criticized or lumped in with the assholes. It is COMPLETELY LEGITIMATE that some people want to be able to go about in public and know whether they will be safe or not. It is COMPLETELY LEGITIMATE that people want to follow scientific guidelines and go without a mask. The problem is that anti-mask assholes have ruined that for both groups. Everyone's angry, but directing that anger at anti-maskers does literally nothing, and in fact makes them more gleeful and act even more like assholes. So we turn it on our allies because they're the only ones we can reach.
I'm not going to comment on whether this is useful or not, but it's a dynamic I've seen before in progressive circles and it seems like that's what's happening here. There might be something to be said for looking at clashing accessibility needs discussions as well. What do you do when both people have legitimate complaints and conflicting needs? I wish the conversation could be more about that rather than casting one or the other as "the problem." Neither is the problem. The anti-mask assholes are.
My personal solution is to wear a mask that ties behind the neck and head (I'm not able to wear the loop ones anyway) and leave it hanging around my neck. I pull it up any time I'm around people who are also wearing masks. It's a quick and easy motion and the mask stays securely around my neck the entire time I'm out of the house without extra fuss on my part.
posted by brook horse at 9:00 AM on May 29, 2021 [13 favorites]
Both groups are angry at the anti-maskers plague-spreaders. Some people with various legitimate concerns are angry that they now can't go anywhere in public and safely make judgements based on mask-wearing. Other people are legitimately seeking to follow CDC guidelines or who struggle with masks for various legitimate reasons are angry that they can't do so without being criticized or lumped in with the assholes. It is COMPLETELY LEGITIMATE that some people want to be able to go about in public and know whether they will be safe or not. It is COMPLETELY LEGITIMATE that people want to follow scientific guidelines and go without a mask. The problem is that anti-mask assholes have ruined that for both groups. Everyone's angry, but directing that anger at anti-maskers does literally nothing, and in fact makes them more gleeful and act even more like assholes. So we turn it on our allies because they're the only ones we can reach.
I'm not going to comment on whether this is useful or not, but it's a dynamic I've seen before in progressive circles and it seems like that's what's happening here. There might be something to be said for looking at clashing accessibility needs discussions as well. What do you do when both people have legitimate complaints and conflicting needs? I wish the conversation could be more about that rather than casting one or the other as "the problem." Neither is the problem. The anti-mask assholes are.
My personal solution is to wear a mask that ties behind the neck and head (I'm not able to wear the loop ones anyway) and leave it hanging around my neck. I pull it up any time I'm around people who are also wearing masks. It's a quick and easy motion and the mask stays securely around my neck the entire time I'm out of the house without extra fuss on my part.
posted by brook horse at 9:00 AM on May 29, 2021 [13 favorites]
(Comment I was somewhat replying to seems to have been deleted, sorry if mine seems weirdly directed or out of the blue. I think it's still useful to talk about but mods can decide whether it's a derail.)
posted by brook horse at 9:02 AM on May 29, 2021
posted by brook horse at 9:02 AM on May 29, 2021
I will say that the Velcro head straps that you can use to convert ear-loop masks to around-your-head masks are super handy.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:14 AM on May 29, 2021
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:14 AM on May 29, 2021
Anecdata: I went to a Target store today with my wife. The sign on the door roughly paraphrased their latest corporate statement on the subject:
"Face coverings will continue to be strongly recommended for guests and team members who are not fully vaccinated."
The needle has moved from "wear a mask to enter" to "wear a mask to enter if you are not fully vaccinated" to simply saying it out loud -- "Wear a mask... if you feel like it. Period."
"When the pandemic is over" and "When a large enough chunk of America simply says 'we don't care about it any more'" should be two very different things. I fear that they are not.
posted by delfin at 12:10 PM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
"Face coverings will continue to be strongly recommended for guests and team members who are not fully vaccinated."
The needle has moved from "wear a mask to enter" to "wear a mask to enter if you are not fully vaccinated" to simply saying it out loud -- "Wear a mask... if you feel like it. Period."
"When the pandemic is over" and "When a large enough chunk of America simply says 'we don't care about it any more'" should be two very different things. I fear that they are not.
posted by delfin at 12:10 PM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
US covid vaccination rates by state - short summary: most New England states (Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut) have between 50-55% of population fully vaccinated. All other states have less than 50% fully vaccinated. (Mississippi and Alabama are doing the worst, at 27.12% and 29.20% fully vaccinated, respectively.)
posted by eviemath at 12:27 PM on May 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by eviemath at 12:27 PM on May 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
(Those numbers are changing daily, of course and fortunately.)
posted by eviemath at 12:28 PM on May 29, 2021
posted by eviemath at 12:28 PM on May 29, 2021
brook horse My only problem is that the people who are vaccinated and have decided to go maskless seem to feel that if I'm vaccinated and still wear a mask I'm a problem to be solved, a "hivemind' in need of "correction", that by failing to agree with them I'm divisive and even threatening simply because I don't instantly strip off my mask when they want me to.
Some people have suggested that if vaccinated people continue to wear masks it will turn masks into a political issue and discourage the anti-vaxxers from wearing a mask.
The problem with this proposal is it ignores the part where masks are already a political statement due 100% to Republicans making them one. Only the Republicans can depoliticize masks, it's not that I don't want to, it's that I can't. No one who is not part of the Trump cult can depoliticize masks. And the Trump cult doesn't want to depoliticize masks.
You say, correctly, that our ire should be directed at the anti-maskers. How, precisely, do you propose we distinguish between a good science minded liberal who is fully vaccinated and refuses to keep wearing a mask, and an evil anti-masking conservative who refuses to vaccinate and is spreading the plague?
Until they started refusing to mask there was no difficulty. Anyone refusing to wear a mask an anti-masker. Now they're providing social cover for the anti-maskers.
Which do you think is more likely?
That there exists any significant segment of the population who are non-vaccinated or anti-vaccine, who refuse to wear masks, and who would start to wear masks if only vaccinated liberals would stop wearing them?
OR
That the anti-maskers we all agree are the problem will use the presence of fully vaccinated liberals as social cover so their own plague spreading will be less noted, commented on, and they will be less shunned?
posted by sotonohito at 1:12 PM on May 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
Some people have suggested that if vaccinated people continue to wear masks it will turn masks into a political issue and discourage the anti-vaxxers from wearing a mask.
The problem with this proposal is it ignores the part where masks are already a political statement due 100% to Republicans making them one. Only the Republicans can depoliticize masks, it's not that I don't want to, it's that I can't. No one who is not part of the Trump cult can depoliticize masks. And the Trump cult doesn't want to depoliticize masks.
You say, correctly, that our ire should be directed at the anti-maskers. How, precisely, do you propose we distinguish between a good science minded liberal who is fully vaccinated and refuses to keep wearing a mask, and an evil anti-masking conservative who refuses to vaccinate and is spreading the plague?
Until they started refusing to mask there was no difficulty. Anyone refusing to wear a mask an anti-masker. Now they're providing social cover for the anti-maskers.
Which do you think is more likely?
That there exists any significant segment of the population who are non-vaccinated or anti-vaccine, who refuse to wear masks, and who would start to wear masks if only vaccinated liberals would stop wearing them?
OR
That the anti-maskers we all agree are the problem will use the presence of fully vaccinated liberals as social cover so their own plague spreading will be less noted, commented on, and they will be less shunned?
posted by sotonohito at 1:12 PM on May 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
I'm not really interested in getting involved in arguments I'm not making, so I'll leave most of what you said and just say that calling continued masking divisive is stupid, and that not being able to tell the difference between an anti-masker and a vaccinated person is the reason I still wear a mask in public. I'm on your side and think vaccinated folks should continue to wear masks for the safety (via information) and comfort of others. I'm not sure why you assumed differently.
All I'm saying is that the anger in this thread is being directed at vaccinated people who mask or who don't, when the source of that anger is actually unvaccinated anti-maskers. But we can't reach them, so we fight with each other. Like I said, I'm not commenting on whether or not that's good practice. Just that it's happening, and that it's anti-maskers who are the problem. One that vaccinated folks should be helping with by continuing to wear masks in public, but which they are understandably frustrated by because it's not in line with CDC guidelines and it's having to adjust your behavior due to the irresponsibility of assholes. No one likes to have to do that. But the source of that anger is really anti-maskers, not people asking them to mask, and that's who I would prefer to direct it at. And vice versa.
Re: your "how do we tell" question, I'm not talking about random strangers in public, I'm talking about the people in this thread who have made it quite clear that they are vaccinated, so that's not an issue. How you react to random strangers in public is totally up to you and valid, but when talking in the abstract in this thread I think that those upset about continued mask-wearing and those upset about discontinued mask-wearing are both angry for the same reason--anti-maskers--but are directing that anger at each other instead.
posted by brook horse at 2:34 PM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
All I'm saying is that the anger in this thread is being directed at vaccinated people who mask or who don't, when the source of that anger is actually unvaccinated anti-maskers. But we can't reach them, so we fight with each other. Like I said, I'm not commenting on whether or not that's good practice. Just that it's happening, and that it's anti-maskers who are the problem. One that vaccinated folks should be helping with by continuing to wear masks in public, but which they are understandably frustrated by because it's not in line with CDC guidelines and it's having to adjust your behavior due to the irresponsibility of assholes. No one likes to have to do that. But the source of that anger is really anti-maskers, not people asking them to mask, and that's who I would prefer to direct it at. And vice versa.
Re: your "how do we tell" question, I'm not talking about random strangers in public, I'm talking about the people in this thread who have made it quite clear that they are vaccinated, so that's not an issue. How you react to random strangers in public is totally up to you and valid, but when talking in the abstract in this thread I think that those upset about continued mask-wearing and those upset about discontinued mask-wearing are both angry for the same reason--anti-maskers--but are directing that anger at each other instead.
posted by brook horse at 2:34 PM on May 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
Do we really have to turn not wearing a mask into some kind of power flex? At this point in time, going maskless in stores and other public places is like open carrying. Don't be that asshole who shows up with a holstered gun and doesn't understand why people are giving him such a wide berth.
I was in a place today, with "masks required" signs on the doors, and in walked an open carry dude. Of course he was not wearing a mask (what's the plan, shoot the covid?). Anyway, while rolling my eyes at him, I was reminded of this comment and that it is not an either/or power flex.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:19 PM on May 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
I was in a place today, with "masks required" signs on the doors, and in walked an open carry dude. Of course he was not wearing a mask (what's the plan, shoot the covid?). Anyway, while rolling my eyes at him, I was reminded of this comment and that it is not an either/or power flex.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:19 PM on May 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
That the anti-maskers we all agree are the problem will use the presence of fully vaccinated liberals as social cover so their own plague spreading will be less noted, commented on, and they will be less shunned?
This is so incredibly divisive I don't know exactly where to start.
Are you friends with anytime that has not yet been vaccinated? They are humans, too. They want to go out to eat, just like plenty of liberals did in the fall, when rates were a lot higher than they are now. You are acting like they WANT to spread covid, when many of them are uneducated about many factors and don't trust vaccines for (misguided) relatively reasonable things. Like, they are pregnant and worried about their baby, and their doctor told them to wait.
This divide you have built up in your mind, this enemy... It's 1: dripping with contempt, when we should be compassionate. 2: not an appropriate tone to take with others on this forum.
Like, I know, it's been a hard year. We've learned a lot of about some ugly people in the world. But vilifying people trying their best to be safe, and vilifying people who are following CDC guidelines, is crossing a line. You need to reconnect with humanity... 99.9% of people are trying their hardest to do what's right.
posted by bbqturtle at 5:26 AM on May 30, 2021 [3 favorites]
This is so incredibly divisive I don't know exactly where to start.
Are you friends with anytime that has not yet been vaccinated? They are humans, too. They want to go out to eat, just like plenty of liberals did in the fall, when rates were a lot higher than they are now. You are acting like they WANT to spread covid, when many of them are uneducated about many factors and don't trust vaccines for (misguided) relatively reasonable things. Like, they are pregnant and worried about their baby, and their doctor told them to wait.
This divide you have built up in your mind, this enemy... It's 1: dripping with contempt, when we should be compassionate. 2: not an appropriate tone to take with others on this forum.
Like, I know, it's been a hard year. We've learned a lot of about some ugly people in the world. But vilifying people trying their best to be safe, and vilifying people who are following CDC guidelines, is crossing a line. You need to reconnect with humanity... 99.9% of people are trying their hardest to do what's right.
posted by bbqturtle at 5:26 AM on May 30, 2021 [3 favorites]
I appreciate what you're saying bbqturtle, but I just no longer believe that "99.9% of people are trying their hardest to do what's right." I think it's more likely that most people do what's easy and the rest are zealots on either side.
posted by cooker girl at 7:13 AM on May 30, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by cooker girl at 7:13 AM on May 30, 2021 [4 favorites]
Are you friends with anytime that has not yet been vaccinated? They are humans, too. They want to go out to eat, just like plenty of liberals did in the fall, when rates were a lot higher than they are now. You are acting like they WANT to spread covid, when many of them are uneducated about many factors and don't trust vaccines for (misguided) relatively reasonable things. Like, they are pregnant and worried about their baby, and their doctor told them to wait.
The vast majority of conservative non-vaxxers are not intentionally trying to spread COVID. Nor do they aim for small animals while driving or shoot a man in Reno just to watch him die. This is most definitely true. As is the fact that many of them are, indeed, BADLY misguided and uneducated because they have been carefully trained to trust only "news" sources that project a highly distorted view of the world. 30% of Americans are not sociopathic Lex Luthors.
But the core of modern Gingrich-era conservatism is, to put it bluntly, dehumanization of the Other. Your marriage, your gender identity, your desired medical procedure shouldn't exist because they make MY religious belief system uncomfortable. Your personal safety with respect to guns is less important than MY desire to tote one around everywhere. Your ability to emigrate here, become a citizen, have a job, vote, coexist is dangerous if it diminishes MY political influence, and those who look and think like me. Your minimum wage shouldn't go up, your insurance shouldn't be cheaper or more available, your benefits should vanish, your government assistance shouldn't exist because MY taxes might go up to help pay for them.
I matter. You don't.
It is a culture warrior mentality in large part, endless reinforcement of an idea that America has a two-tier caste system: 1) Real Americans[tm] and 2) Everybody else. It is what has driven the decades-long hard-right swerve of the modern Republican Party. And it tells many Americans precisely what they want to hear -- that what I want is important, and what THEY want is irrelevant if it means compromising any part of what I want.
Very few people want to continue a masked existence for the sheer fun of it. But, as many of us have been repeating in this thread, many of we vaxxed leftist types do want to continue masking at this time, for the very good reason that we feel that the CDC's guidance is medically sound but sociologically disastrous. And that is because of a simple truth, one that no one here can wish away:
American conservatives who are anti-vax AND anti-mask (because their chosen media tells them over and over and over again that both are Communist Tyranny) will never, ever, ever wear a mask in public unless they are ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED to do so, and will suffer real-life consequences if they do not comply.
There is no honor system, because there is no honor. There is simply self-gratification; if the mask policy is not enforced, if the non-vaxxed mask policy changes from "required" to "strongly recommended" (i.e. what I mentioned previously that Target has now done), anti-vaxxers will simply waltz into public places unmasked because. they. can. Because they find it inconvenient and unpleasant, they do not feel that it protects them from anything, and they believe (because they've been told this, over and over) that no one can tell them what to do or that they ought to think of anyone but themselves.
Which puts more unvaxxed, unmasked people into public places. Which puts more unvaxxed people at risk, many of whom would LIKE to gain that extra protection but, as you noted, currently cannot. That is the bottom line. And at this time, when (stats several posts up, thank you eviemath) less than 50% of the public is fully vaxxed, that is an awful lot of potentially vulnerable people still living with and around us.
Maybe we will get to a point where that vulnerable population drops low enough that it _is_ safe to lower the shields and deem that an acceptable level of risk. I do not feel that we are even close to that. And if I can help protect that vulnerable population, even though I myself am vaxxed, through a very simple and now-routine behavior practice that, to me, is no more than the slightest inconvenience, through suggesting via my own actions that 'wear masks in public' should remain the default rule wherever vulnerable people gather?
I'm doing it.
posted by delfin at 8:04 AM on May 30, 2021 [6 favorites]
The vast majority of conservative non-vaxxers are not intentionally trying to spread COVID. Nor do they aim for small animals while driving or shoot a man in Reno just to watch him die. This is most definitely true. As is the fact that many of them are, indeed, BADLY misguided and uneducated because they have been carefully trained to trust only "news" sources that project a highly distorted view of the world. 30% of Americans are not sociopathic Lex Luthors.
But the core of modern Gingrich-era conservatism is, to put it bluntly, dehumanization of the Other. Your marriage, your gender identity, your desired medical procedure shouldn't exist because they make MY religious belief system uncomfortable. Your personal safety with respect to guns is less important than MY desire to tote one around everywhere. Your ability to emigrate here, become a citizen, have a job, vote, coexist is dangerous if it diminishes MY political influence, and those who look and think like me. Your minimum wage shouldn't go up, your insurance shouldn't be cheaper or more available, your benefits should vanish, your government assistance shouldn't exist because MY taxes might go up to help pay for them.
I matter. You don't.
It is a culture warrior mentality in large part, endless reinforcement of an idea that America has a two-tier caste system: 1) Real Americans[tm] and 2) Everybody else. It is what has driven the decades-long hard-right swerve of the modern Republican Party. And it tells many Americans precisely what they want to hear -- that what I want is important, and what THEY want is irrelevant if it means compromising any part of what I want.
Very few people want to continue a masked existence for the sheer fun of it. But, as many of us have been repeating in this thread, many of we vaxxed leftist types do want to continue masking at this time, for the very good reason that we feel that the CDC's guidance is medically sound but sociologically disastrous. And that is because of a simple truth, one that no one here can wish away:
American conservatives who are anti-vax AND anti-mask (because their chosen media tells them over and over and over again that both are Communist Tyranny) will never, ever, ever wear a mask in public unless they are ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED to do so, and will suffer real-life consequences if they do not comply.
There is no honor system, because there is no honor. There is simply self-gratification; if the mask policy is not enforced, if the non-vaxxed mask policy changes from "required" to "strongly recommended" (i.e. what I mentioned previously that Target has now done), anti-vaxxers will simply waltz into public places unmasked because. they. can. Because they find it inconvenient and unpleasant, they do not feel that it protects them from anything, and they believe (because they've been told this, over and over) that no one can tell them what to do or that they ought to think of anyone but themselves.
Which puts more unvaxxed, unmasked people into public places. Which puts more unvaxxed people at risk, many of whom would LIKE to gain that extra protection but, as you noted, currently cannot. That is the bottom line. And at this time, when (stats several posts up, thank you eviemath) less than 50% of the public is fully vaxxed, that is an awful lot of potentially vulnerable people still living with and around us.
Maybe we will get to a point where that vulnerable population drops low enough that it _is_ safe to lower the shields and deem that an acceptable level of risk. I do not feel that we are even close to that. And if I can help protect that vulnerable population, even though I myself am vaxxed, through a very simple and now-routine behavior practice that, to me, is no more than the slightest inconvenience, through suggesting via my own actions that 'wear masks in public' should remain the default rule wherever vulnerable people gather?
I'm doing it.
posted by delfin at 8:04 AM on May 30, 2021 [6 favorites]
For those arguing that it is morally imperative for fully vaccinated individuals to continue to wear masks notwithstanding CDC guidelines, how will you know when it is OK to stop masking up? Is it when a certain percentage of population is fully vaccinated or some other criteria? And who establishes the criteria? If we can't trust the CDC on this, who can we trust?
posted by lumpy at 11:58 AM on May 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by lumpy at 11:58 AM on May 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'll keep wearing my mask in indoor public places until the 14 day running average for new cases in my county is less than one. Right now it is about seven. If cases keep dropping at the current rate It will take four to six weeks to get down to zero.
posted by Blue Genie at 12:24 PM on May 30, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by Blue Genie at 12:24 PM on May 30, 2021 [4 favorites]
For those arguing that it is morally imperative for fully vaccinated individuals to continue to wear masks notwithstanding CDC guidelines, how will you know when it is OK to stop masking up? Is it when a certain percentage of population is fully vaccinated or some other criteria? And who establishes the criteria? If we can't trust the CDC on this, who can we trust?
Oh, there are lots of possible criteria contributing to that.
Like, for example, Americans are currently midway through their first let's-all-get-out-and-socialize-and-party-and-drink-and-act-like-nothing's-wrong holiday weekend of the vaccine-eligible era, Memorial Day weekend. If we can get through that and not see significant spikes in cases in relevant non-vaxxed populations in the next several weeks... that's a good omen, at least.
When/if the CDC determines that the risk for non-vaccinated people has dropped low enough that THEY can go maskless... that'd be an excellent determiner. Since those are the people who are the most vulnerable, the most likely to contribute to the spread, and the most in need of societal encouragement to continue masking at all relevant times. If the CDC looks at that population's size, the emergence of variants and the number of cases/hospitalizations and declares "All clear," that's a different story.
Last time I checked, their guidance for non-vaxxed is "continue to mask and distance." So I will continue to put at least one mask and six feet between me and them, since they are demonstrably unwilling to do that themselves.
posted by delfin at 12:57 PM on May 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
Oh, there are lots of possible criteria contributing to that.
Like, for example, Americans are currently midway through their first let's-all-get-out-and-socialize-and-party-and-drink-and-act-like-nothing's-wrong holiday weekend of the vaccine-eligible era, Memorial Day weekend. If we can get through that and not see significant spikes in cases in relevant non-vaxxed populations in the next several weeks... that's a good omen, at least.
When/if the CDC determines that the risk for non-vaccinated people has dropped low enough that THEY can go maskless... that'd be an excellent determiner. Since those are the people who are the most vulnerable, the most likely to contribute to the spread, and the most in need of societal encouragement to continue masking at all relevant times. If the CDC looks at that population's size, the emergence of variants and the number of cases/hospitalizations and declares "All clear," that's a different story.
Last time I checked, their guidance for non-vaxxed is "continue to mask and distance." So I will continue to put at least one mask and six feet between me and them, since they are demonstrably unwilling to do that themselves.
posted by delfin at 12:57 PM on May 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
bbqturtle I'm confused. Are you advocating that it's good/acceptable/whatever for non-vaccinated people to go bare faced or have I totally misunderstood your point?
I do know people who have not been able to get vaccinated. They wear masks and their lives depend on other people continuing to wear masks since the whole point of masks is it reduces the odds of a COVID carrier from spreading it to others.
If you're concerned about the people who would like to be vaccinated but can't be then continuing to wear a mask after you've been vaccinated is the most sensible course of action. To protect those people we need a society where going bare faced is socially discouraged and that can only be accomplished by having an overwhelming majority wear masks. Explicitly including vaccinated people simply to produce the necessary social pressure.
I'm still not sure why you think I'm the problem, or that I'm divisive.
I will wholeheartedly agree that I have nothing but contempt and, frankly, hate for the anti-vaccine anti-mask crowd. I'm more distressed, worried, and impatient with the vaccinated people who are breaking social cohesion by going bare faced. I don't think you/they are bad, just wrong in a way that is creating danger for everyone.
The vast majority of conservative non-vaxxers are not intentionally trying to spread COVID. Nor do they aim for small animals while driving or shoot a man in Reno just to watch him die. This is most definitely true. As is the fact that many of them are, indeed, BADLY misguided and uneducated because they have been carefully trained to trust only "news" sources that project a highly distorted view of the world. 30% of Americans are not sociopathic Lex Luthors.
This is of course quite true.
But, and this is important, if you assume they **ARE** maliciously and deliberately spreading the plague you can predict their actions pretty accurately.
The actions taken by right wingers are more or less identical to the actions that would be taken by a group of plague worshipers who think spreading the plague is a positive good. So, to a large extent, I don't care what their actual motives and intentions are. I care about their actions.
posted by sotonohito at 7:20 AM on May 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
I do know people who have not been able to get vaccinated. They wear masks and their lives depend on other people continuing to wear masks since the whole point of masks is it reduces the odds of a COVID carrier from spreading it to others.
If you're concerned about the people who would like to be vaccinated but can't be then continuing to wear a mask after you've been vaccinated is the most sensible course of action. To protect those people we need a society where going bare faced is socially discouraged and that can only be accomplished by having an overwhelming majority wear masks. Explicitly including vaccinated people simply to produce the necessary social pressure.
I'm still not sure why you think I'm the problem, or that I'm divisive.
I will wholeheartedly agree that I have nothing but contempt and, frankly, hate for the anti-vaccine anti-mask crowd. I'm more distressed, worried, and impatient with the vaccinated people who are breaking social cohesion by going bare faced. I don't think you/they are bad, just wrong in a way that is creating danger for everyone.
The vast majority of conservative non-vaxxers are not intentionally trying to spread COVID. Nor do they aim for small animals while driving or shoot a man in Reno just to watch him die. This is most definitely true. As is the fact that many of them are, indeed, BADLY misguided and uneducated because they have been carefully trained to trust only "news" sources that project a highly distorted view of the world. 30% of Americans are not sociopathic Lex Luthors.
This is of course quite true.
But, and this is important, if you assume they **ARE** maliciously and deliberately spreading the plague you can predict their actions pretty accurately.
The actions taken by right wingers are more or less identical to the actions that would be taken by a group of plague worshipers who think spreading the plague is a positive good. So, to a large extent, I don't care what their actual motives and intentions are. I care about their actions.
posted by sotonohito at 7:20 AM on May 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
To protect those people we need a society where going bare faced is socially discouraged and that can only be accomplished by having an overwhelming majority wear masks.
This is the same as saying "to protect those people we need a society where being unvaccinated is socially discouraged and where everyone who can be is vaccinated." These are correct statements and the vulnerable would be much, much safer in either situation... but neither is going to happen. People in much of the country were already declining to comply (or never were) with mask mandates, mask mandates were being eliminated at the local level, and following the change in CDC guidance I don't see any pathway back to full mask mandates unless there is a massive spike in cases.
I guess my point is: without disagreeing with your underlying point about wanting to protect the vulnerable, what do you see as a realistic path to get there?
posted by Dip Flash at 10:11 AM on May 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
This is the same as saying "to protect those people we need a society where being unvaccinated is socially discouraged and where everyone who can be is vaccinated." These are correct statements and the vulnerable would be much, much safer in either situation... but neither is going to happen. People in much of the country were already declining to comply (or never were) with mask mandates, mask mandates were being eliminated at the local level, and following the change in CDC guidance I don't see any pathway back to full mask mandates unless there is a massive spike in cases.
I guess my point is: without disagreeing with your underlying point about wanting to protect the vulnerable, what do you see as a realistic path to get there?
posted by Dip Flash at 10:11 AM on May 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
I think a really key point is that the epidemic in the US is now becoming hyperlocal. In Illinois, there is a town where 90% of residents have had at least one vaccine dose (75% have had both), which means virtually everyone over 12 is at least partly vaccinated. And in Illinois, there is a town where 17% of people have had at least one vaccine dose, and the number has been stubbornly refusing to rise since March, when they finished vaccinating seniors.
In the 90% town, people masked before it was required, continued masking after the CDC dropped the requirement (only this week are you starting to see people without masks in indoor locations), were aggressive in demanding local stores protect their employees, organized local quilters and 3D printing hobbyists to make masks, PPE accessories, etc., organized to raise money to send food from local restaurants to the hospital for the staff every single day for eight solid weeks at the beginning of the pandemic. Before vaccines, local high school students organized a "I will run your errands for you" group to run errands for older and at-risk people who couldn't safely go to the store. A local church and synagogue partnered together with an "appointment finder" ministry to help people who weren't tech savvy get vaccine appointments (and drive them to them).
In the 17% town, restaurants never closed, in defiance of state orders. Coaches for HS sports (which were shut down) organized "unofficial" practices and just kept operating. When they couldn't get space in local gyms or schools (who didn't want to get sued out of existence), they hired facilities across the border in states that didn't have lockdown orders, and would pile 40 kids into a dozen cars and carpool there. Mask mandates were never enforced. Some gas stations and stores put up signs refusing entry to people in masks, when masks were mandatory in all retail outlets in the state! There have been virtually no mutual care efforts; churches refused to hold remote services (often in defiance of their own denominational mandates).
If I live in the 90% town, I'm feeling pretty good about the end of the mask mandate. People have been making safe, smart, mutually-supportive decisions throughout the pandemic, and if I ask someone to put on a mask or step back because I'm not vaccinated (or my kids aren't vaccinated), they're probably going to rapidly comply and apologize.
If I live in the 17% town, and I have unvaccinated kids or I'm immunocompromised, leaving the house is terrifying. (And honestly, if I see anyone wearing a mask, I'm probably going to assume they're the only ones vaccinated!) If I ask someone to put on a mask or step back because I'm not vaccinated, chances are pretty decent they'll not only not comply, but that they're going to get up in my face with insane Fox News talking points and get really aggressive about it.
But a lot more people in Illinois live in towns that are like 40%-60% vaccinated, and you're dealing with a mix of people operating in good faith (obeyed mask mandates, vaccinated ASAP, followed CDC guidance, only unmasked now b/c they're vaccinated) and people who have spent the entire pandemic putting others at risk or operating in bad faith -- because they're selfish, or just lazy, or deeeeeeep in GOP talking points. And I think it can be a little hard to know what to do in those 40-60% towns, especially if it's not clear how many people are vaccine refusers and how many are struggling with access/time/transportation.
Anyway, the question of whether going without a mask in public is fine and just following CDC guidance, or deeply hostile to your neighbors, or likely to encourage others to be unsafe, depends a lot on whether you live in a 90% community, a 17% community, or a 50% community. And it really seems like some of the people in this thread are talking past each other because of the varying make-up of their communities. Some are in places where it probably IS fine to unmask because most people are getting vaccinated as quickly as they can and have followed rules throughout. Others are in places where nobody has followed rules at all throughout the pandemic, and unmasking there is a really different thing. Some of us live in places where masking was never political (or was in line with the politics of everyone around us); others of us live in places where masking has been politicized since day one, and wearing a mask when it's not mandatory opens you to community scorn and aggressive jerkery and makes a political statement you may or may not want to make.
I can't really make any kind of judgment about whether you should unmask, or not unmask, in your local community, because I don't KNOW your local community. I don't know whether people glare at you in the grocery store if you dare to be unmasked. I don't know if your kids get shunned at school because you make them wear masks. I don't know if virtually your entire town is vaccinated and it's probably safe to unmask, or if hardly anyone is vaccinated and leaving the house means running a Covid gauntlet.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 11:09 AM on May 31, 2021 [13 favorites]
In the 90% town, people masked before it was required, continued masking after the CDC dropped the requirement (only this week are you starting to see people without masks in indoor locations), were aggressive in demanding local stores protect their employees, organized local quilters and 3D printing hobbyists to make masks, PPE accessories, etc., organized to raise money to send food from local restaurants to the hospital for the staff every single day for eight solid weeks at the beginning of the pandemic. Before vaccines, local high school students organized a "I will run your errands for you" group to run errands for older and at-risk people who couldn't safely go to the store. A local church and synagogue partnered together with an "appointment finder" ministry to help people who weren't tech savvy get vaccine appointments (and drive them to them).
In the 17% town, restaurants never closed, in defiance of state orders. Coaches for HS sports (which were shut down) organized "unofficial" practices and just kept operating. When they couldn't get space in local gyms or schools (who didn't want to get sued out of existence), they hired facilities across the border in states that didn't have lockdown orders, and would pile 40 kids into a dozen cars and carpool there. Mask mandates were never enforced. Some gas stations and stores put up signs refusing entry to people in masks, when masks were mandatory in all retail outlets in the state! There have been virtually no mutual care efforts; churches refused to hold remote services (often in defiance of their own denominational mandates).
If I live in the 90% town, I'm feeling pretty good about the end of the mask mandate. People have been making safe, smart, mutually-supportive decisions throughout the pandemic, and if I ask someone to put on a mask or step back because I'm not vaccinated (or my kids aren't vaccinated), they're probably going to rapidly comply and apologize.
If I live in the 17% town, and I have unvaccinated kids or I'm immunocompromised, leaving the house is terrifying. (And honestly, if I see anyone wearing a mask, I'm probably going to assume they're the only ones vaccinated!) If I ask someone to put on a mask or step back because I'm not vaccinated, chances are pretty decent they'll not only not comply, but that they're going to get up in my face with insane Fox News talking points and get really aggressive about it.
But a lot more people in Illinois live in towns that are like 40%-60% vaccinated, and you're dealing with a mix of people operating in good faith (obeyed mask mandates, vaccinated ASAP, followed CDC guidance, only unmasked now b/c they're vaccinated) and people who have spent the entire pandemic putting others at risk or operating in bad faith -- because they're selfish, or just lazy, or deeeeeeep in GOP talking points. And I think it can be a little hard to know what to do in those 40-60% towns, especially if it's not clear how many people are vaccine refusers and how many are struggling with access/time/transportation.
Anyway, the question of whether going without a mask in public is fine and just following CDC guidance, or deeply hostile to your neighbors, or likely to encourage others to be unsafe, depends a lot on whether you live in a 90% community, a 17% community, or a 50% community. And it really seems like some of the people in this thread are talking past each other because of the varying make-up of their communities. Some are in places where it probably IS fine to unmask because most people are getting vaccinated as quickly as they can and have followed rules throughout. Others are in places where nobody has followed rules at all throughout the pandemic, and unmasking there is a really different thing. Some of us live in places where masking was never political (or was in line with the politics of everyone around us); others of us live in places where masking has been politicized since day one, and wearing a mask when it's not mandatory opens you to community scorn and aggressive jerkery and makes a political statement you may or may not want to make.
I can't really make any kind of judgment about whether you should unmask, or not unmask, in your local community, because I don't KNOW your local community. I don't know whether people glare at you in the grocery store if you dare to be unmasked. I don't know if your kids get shunned at school because you make them wear masks. I don't know if virtually your entire town is vaccinated and it's probably safe to unmask, or if hardly anyone is vaccinated and leaving the house means running a Covid gauntlet.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 11:09 AM on May 31, 2021 [13 favorites]
The only thing I will add to your well-thought-out analysis is this:
The people that work in places that you frequent. The people who handle your food, your retail products, your deliveries. The people around you on public transportation or in the workplace, should you be in a position to partake of either. The guy next in line to you somewhere.
Do they live in the 90% town, the 50% town, or the 17% town? Who have they been associating with, where and how do they spend their time, and how conscientious are they about managing risks?
I wish that they all wore identifying jerseys... but they don't.
posted by delfin at 12:46 PM on May 31, 2021
The people that work in places that you frequent. The people who handle your food, your retail products, your deliveries. The people around you on public transportation or in the workplace, should you be in a position to partake of either. The guy next in line to you somewhere.
Do they live in the 90% town, the 50% town, or the 17% town? Who have they been associating with, where and how do they spend their time, and how conscientious are they about managing risks?
I wish that they all wore identifying jerseys... but they don't.
posted by delfin at 12:46 PM on May 31, 2021
Not to go all Monty Python peasant and scream "THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN ON ABOUT!," but...
WFMZ: Pennsylvania lifting capacity limit for Memorial Day and beyond
aka All Systems Go for bars, restaurants and public venues. The Media Relations Manager for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs baseball team noted:
"For those who still want to wear their masks, we are still encouraging all safety protocols," said Ventola.
The key word being "encouraging," not "requiring." As in, you are encouraged to mask and distance, but there is absolutely no assurance that anyone else who is there, including the non-vaccinated, will do either. Which puts it neatly off-limits for fans like myself.
The article also mentions this:
Masks are still required for those not vaccinated until 70% of Pennsylvanians are vaccinated or until June 28th rolls around, whatever happens first.
Let's review that, shall we? Non-vaxxed masks are required until the vaccination percentage reaches an amount that someone (presumably state health officials, but who knows anymore) has arbitrarily selected as a safer threshold... or until it doesn't reach that threshold, but the state simply throws its hands up and endorses that anyway.
That's not "following the science." That's determining a threshold of (relative) safety... and then throwing it out the window if that threshold doesn't happen to be reached in four weeks, because BUSINESS DOLLARS MUST FLOW.
And this is one of the not-COMPLETELY-insane states.
Good luck, everybody.
posted by delfin at 5:34 PM on May 31, 2021 [7 favorites]
WFMZ: Pennsylvania lifting capacity limit for Memorial Day and beyond
aka All Systems Go for bars, restaurants and public venues. The Media Relations Manager for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs baseball team noted:
"For those who still want to wear their masks, we are still encouraging all safety protocols," said Ventola.
The key word being "encouraging," not "requiring." As in, you are encouraged to mask and distance, but there is absolutely no assurance that anyone else who is there, including the non-vaccinated, will do either. Which puts it neatly off-limits for fans like myself.
The article also mentions this:
Masks are still required for those not vaccinated until 70% of Pennsylvanians are vaccinated or until June 28th rolls around, whatever happens first.
Let's review that, shall we? Non-vaxxed masks are required until the vaccination percentage reaches an amount that someone (presumably state health officials, but who knows anymore) has arbitrarily selected as a safer threshold... or until it doesn't reach that threshold, but the state simply throws its hands up and endorses that anyway.
That's not "following the science." That's determining a threshold of (relative) safety... and then throwing it out the window if that threshold doesn't happen to be reached in four weeks, because BUSINESS DOLLARS MUST FLOW.
And this is one of the not-COMPLETELY-insane states.
Good luck, everybody.
posted by delfin at 5:34 PM on May 31, 2021 [7 favorites]
bbqturtle I'm confused. Are you advocating that it's good/acceptable/whatever for non-vaccinated people to go bare faced or have I totally misunderstood your point?
My point is that we need to stop treating people that don't trust vaccines as evil, selfish creatures who are intentionally spreading the plague. My point is that they aren't doing anything most people in our tribe weren't doing in november of last year. My point is that we STILL don't follow the science, including complaining about food handlers (when CDC said covid can't travel through food), complaining about outdoor mask use, etc.
I'm just glad that everything is rolling back restrictions. It sure doesn't feel early to me. Look at the numbers! Lower than since before we knew how to test. I don't know what herd immunity is measured by, or where the numbers came from, but this is what I'd expect it to look like.
posted by bbqturtle at 4:39 PM on June 1, 2021
My point is that we need to stop treating people that don't trust vaccines as evil, selfish creatures who are intentionally spreading the plague. My point is that they aren't doing anything most people in our tribe weren't doing in november of last year. My point is that we STILL don't follow the science, including complaining about food handlers (when CDC said covid can't travel through food), complaining about outdoor mask use, etc.
I'm just glad that everything is rolling back restrictions. It sure doesn't feel early to me. Look at the numbers! Lower than since before we knew how to test. I don't know what herd immunity is measured by, or where the numbers came from, but this is what I'd expect it to look like.
posted by bbqturtle at 4:39 PM on June 1, 2021
[the antivaxxers] aren't doing anything most people in our tribe weren't doing in november of last year
I don't know what your tribe was doing in November 2020, but my tribe was witnessing thousands of people drown in their own secretions.
I never, not in a million years, want to go back to that, and every unvaccinated person who refuses to mask up inches us closer to having a variant escape the tenuous control we have over this plague right now. We have been tremendously lucky so far that the vaccines have still been moderately effective against the variants, but if you look over time, their effectiveness is waning. (As the scientific community expected, because that's how viruses fucking work.) You want to "follow the science," follow that.
Your comment about food service workers is just in bad faith -- no one here is saying covid is transmitted through food (I actually just did a CTRL+F for "food" to double check), they are saying that food service workers are at higher risk, due to the nature of public-facing, can't-WFH jobs in locations that are nearly impossible to implement physical distancing. If you think that food service workers are fine to sacrifice to your desire to loosen restrictions, well, I don't know what to tell you. (I do, actually, but it would probably get this comment deleted.)
posted by basalganglia at 6:04 PM on June 1, 2021 [9 favorites]
I don't know what your tribe was doing in November 2020, but my tribe was witnessing thousands of people drown in their own secretions.
I never, not in a million years, want to go back to that, and every unvaccinated person who refuses to mask up inches us closer to having a variant escape the tenuous control we have over this plague right now. We have been tremendously lucky so far that the vaccines have still been moderately effective against the variants, but if you look over time, their effectiveness is waning. (As the scientific community expected, because that's how viruses fucking work.) You want to "follow the science," follow that.
Your comment about food service workers is just in bad faith -- no one here is saying covid is transmitted through food (I actually just did a CTRL+F for "food" to double check), they are saying that food service workers are at higher risk, due to the nature of public-facing, can't-WFH jobs in locations that are nearly impossible to implement physical distancing. If you think that food service workers are fine to sacrifice to your desire to loosen restrictions, well, I don't know what to tell you. (I do, actually, but it would probably get this comment deleted.)
posted by basalganglia at 6:04 PM on June 1, 2021 [9 favorites]
My point is that we need to stop treating people that don't trust vaccines as evil, selfish creatures who are intentionally spreading the plague.
There is a difference between intent and negligence. Or between deliberate selfishness and simple myopia. Or between evil and misinformed.
But do you know what the difference is between a QAnon dolt who considers vaccines a Communist plot, masks a sinister conspiracy by George Soros and Hillary Clinton to suppress individuality, and any attempt to influence their behavior for the common good as tyranny... and a misguided everyday Joe who gets fed bad information about masks and vaccines online and on TV and on the radio, who mistrusts vaccines because they've been told to, and doesn't wear a mask when/if it isn't mandatory?
Not a thing, as far as the virus is concerned, if they're unmasked and unvaxxed and gathering in numbers.
People who "don't trust vaccines" who continue to mask up aren't the problem. Those who don't, are. Those people, not the feelings of the poor, downtrodden vaccine skeptic whose nose gets chafed by masks, are my concern. And taking our societal foot off of the PPE/distancing gas prematurely does nothing but tell those (no-mask AND no-vax) people that what they are doing is okay.
And it isn't.
posted by delfin at 7:03 PM on June 1, 2021 [4 favorites]
There is a difference between intent and negligence. Or between deliberate selfishness and simple myopia. Or between evil and misinformed.
But do you know what the difference is between a QAnon dolt who considers vaccines a Communist plot, masks a sinister conspiracy by George Soros and Hillary Clinton to suppress individuality, and any attempt to influence their behavior for the common good as tyranny... and a misguided everyday Joe who gets fed bad information about masks and vaccines online and on TV and on the radio, who mistrusts vaccines because they've been told to, and doesn't wear a mask when/if it isn't mandatory?
Not a thing, as far as the virus is concerned, if they're unmasked and unvaxxed and gathering in numbers.
People who "don't trust vaccines" who continue to mask up aren't the problem. Those who don't, are. Those people, not the feelings of the poor, downtrodden vaccine skeptic whose nose gets chafed by masks, are my concern. And taking our societal foot off of the PPE/distancing gas prematurely does nothing but tell those (no-mask AND no-vax) people that what they are doing is okay.
And it isn't.
posted by delfin at 7:03 PM on June 1, 2021 [4 favorites]
People who "don't trust vaccines" who continue to mask up aren't the problem. Those who don't, are.
Masks are not as effective as the vaccines. Not by a long shot. Everyone who can get the vaccine and doesn’t is a problem. The messaging shouldn’t be about wearing masks. It should be about getting vaccinated.
posted by chrchr at 8:52 PM on June 1, 2021 [6 favorites]
Masks are not as effective as the vaccines. Not by a long shot. Everyone who can get the vaccine and doesn’t is a problem. The messaging shouldn’t be about wearing masks. It should be about getting vaccinated.
posted by chrchr at 8:52 PM on June 1, 2021 [6 favorites]
I don't know what herd immunity is measured by
Percent of population who have a sufficiently high degree of immunity that single/breakthrough cases (of whatever infectious disease is under discussion) can't spread.
The percent required varies depending on how infectious the specific disease is. Estimates I've seen for the original variants of sars-cov-2 are that we need at least 75% of total population (*not just vaccine-eligible adults) fully vaccinated, but likely a bit more for the more infectious variants.
Notes:
* Most parts of the US are still below 50% of total population fully vaccinated; no state is yet above 75% for statewide numbers (with potentially significant smaller scale local variation within states, as someone else mentioned above). Most of the rest of the world is far, far behind.
* Studies so far indicate that having had an actual case of covid-19 confers less, and shorter lasting, immunity than the vaccines in most cases. Sufficiently less, in fact, that percent of population who have had covid-19 doesn't seem to be a major or important factor in modeling around herd immunity for this pandemic (though that can be a relevant detail for some other infectious diseases).
posted by eviemath at 9:54 PM on June 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
Percent of population who have a sufficiently high degree of immunity that single/breakthrough cases (of whatever infectious disease is under discussion) can't spread.
The percent required varies depending on how infectious the specific disease is. Estimates I've seen for the original variants of sars-cov-2 are that we need at least 75% of total population (*not just vaccine-eligible adults) fully vaccinated, but likely a bit more for the more infectious variants.
Notes:
* Most parts of the US are still below 50% of total population fully vaccinated; no state is yet above 75% for statewide numbers (with potentially significant smaller scale local variation within states, as someone else mentioned above). Most of the rest of the world is far, far behind.
* Studies so far indicate that having had an actual case of covid-19 confers less, and shorter lasting, immunity than the vaccines in most cases. Sufficiently less, in fact, that percent of population who have had covid-19 doesn't seem to be a major or important factor in modeling around herd immunity for this pandemic (though that can be a relevant detail for some other infectious diseases).
posted by eviemath at 9:54 PM on June 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
Herd immunity probably looks like Israel, which is recording ~15 covid cases per day. We're not there yet.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:12 PM on June 2, 2021
posted by BungaDunga at 7:12 PM on June 2, 2021
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This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
I worry that the culture war that sprung up around COVID precautions will make the transition back to normality messy. For so
long COVID precautions have been a signal for deeper political beliefs and people might be reluctant to discard them lest they be mistaken for the other side. I know I’d like to take my mask off as soon as possible, but I don’t want people thinking I’m a Trumpist.
posted by TurnKey at 12:12 PM on May 25, 2021 [34 favorites]