Republican Courage
July 10, 2021 8:06 PM   Subscribe

The Michigan Republican Who Decided to Tell the Truth. A profile of Ed McBroom, a Michigan state senator who led an eight-month investigation into the legitimacy of the 2020 election in Michigan, concluding that the allegations of fraud were nonsense. "Soon after the report was released, Trump issued a thundering statement calling McBroom’s investigation 'a cover up, and a method of getting out of a Forensic Audit for the examination of the Presidential contest.' The former president then published the office phone numbers for McBroom and Michigan’s GOP Senate majority leader, Mike Shirkey, urging his followers to 'call those two Senators now and get them to do the right thing, or vote them the hell out of office!'"
“Our clear finding is that citizens should be confident the results represent the true results of the ballots cast by the people of Michigan,” McBroom wrote in the report. “There is no evidence presented at this time to prove either significant acts of fraud or that an organized, wide-scale effort to commit fraudulent activity was perpetrated in order to subvert the will of Michigan voters.”

For good measure, McBroom added: “The Committee strongly recommends citizens use a critical eye and ear toward those who have pushed demonstrably false theories for their own personal gain.”

This reflected a pattern throughout the report—a clear and clinical statement of facts, accompanied by more animated language that expressed disgust with the grifters selling deception to the masses and disappointment with the voters who were buying it. Sitting at his dinner table, I told the senator that his writing occasionally took a tone of anger. He smirked. “I don’t know that I ever wrote angry,” McBroom replied. “But I tried to leave no room for doubt.”
posted by russilwvong (41 comments total) 32 users marked this as a favorite
 
"Profiles in Republican courage" is of course a cliched joke, but this seems like a real example.
posted by russilwvong at 8:07 PM on July 10, 2021 [14 favorites]


I'm not sure how much McBroom's activites are worthy of the Atlantic's gushing celebration. Spending eight months on an in-depth investigation of charges that were clearly bullshit from the start seems like a profile in something, but maybe not courage.

Perhaps if we were talking about an investigation that included sworn testimony from the conspiracy-mongers, with follow-up prosecutions for perjury, it might have had some actual meaning. But apparently McBroom's main goal was to convince "the good people who are buying this junk" that the fraud accusations were made-up bullshit.

And guess, what - the "good people" he's trying to reach don't care. "People in his own district, friends and community members McBroom has known his entire life ... refuse to accept what he is telling them." Gee, who could have predicted that?
posted by Umami Dearest at 9:22 PM on July 10, 2021 [51 favorites]


It is interesting and disturbing that even long time friends believe some rando (who is probably a Russian disinfo operative) on Facebook over a guy they've known for years and years. Hate radio was bad enough, but social media seems to cut even deeper into the psyche somehow.

Sadly, it's not limited only to right wingers, but it does seem to be affecting right wingers much more greatly, probably because the flood of bullshit is coordinated and focus grouped and A/B tested to death. The relative trickle of bullshit coming from notionally leftish people is far more often half cocked hot takes mutated by the game of telephone inherent in social media, not the result of a systematic disinformation campaign by foreign powers and their hangers on.
posted by wierdo at 9:59 PM on July 10, 2021 [18 favorites]


Perhaps if we were talking about an investigation that included sworn testimony from the conspiracy-mongers, with follow-up prosecutions for perjury, it might have had some actual meaning. But apparently McBroom's main goal was to convince "the good people who are buying this junk" that the fraud accusations were made-up bullshit.

That seems like a laudable goal. Far more laudable and definitely far more useful than setting a perjury trap and creating a bunch of martyrs.

He did in fact refer people who had were heavy on the fraud and grift to the attorney general for prosecution. He did not choose to do a Ken Starr like abuse of power and try and create new crimes.
posted by mark k at 10:09 PM on July 10, 2021 [7 favorites]


OK, so is he walking away from the Republican party until it cleans house? No, then not so much courage, quite the opposite.
posted by Candleman at 11:28 PM on July 10, 2021 [16 favorites]


Gee, who could have predicted that?
The District was created in 1965 and controlled by democrats until 2010. A far percent of the voting population yanked republican last election. Don't get me wrong, the bat shit insane stuff I hear from my neighbor trying to use the hose is Iike dead records and coal dust.Its the upper peninsula, they are good people, in ways not at all like a person from saganaw, Bay City, Detroit, Battle Creek..like everywere else I guess. To suggest possible Prosecution to an attorney general who the republicans do not like...in Michigan that's like building a trebuchet around your findings.
posted by clavdivs at 12:01 AM on July 11, 2021 [4 favorites]


[rant]
Apparently, for many of us, it's easier to believe there's a sinister secret monolithic lefty Capricorn One-style conspiracy running things against our interests and values, than the reality that the world is a just a helpless billiard ball being randomly smacked around by a bunch of competing Mean Girls-style petty, vindictive, hyper wealthy/ powerful/ incompletely-educated cliques whose egos are tied up getting their pet policies enacted because each group is Obviously Right and not always getting their way simply never happens.

As part of this game, they are also expected to be seen to be 'doing (financially) well by doing good*,' i.e. grifting off their causes (Can you think of anyone who doesn't have a captive foundation, think tank, magazine, charity or church from which they draw a salary just for giving speeches?)

Meanwhile those of us not in the game are just Don Roritor's collateral damage/acceptable loss statistics.

The problem isn't that the wrong people are running the world, but that nobody is.
[/rant]

* - Louis Lapham,The American Ruling Class
posted by zaixfeep at 1:27 AM on July 11, 2021 [17 favorites]


"Profiles in Republican courage" is of course a cliched joke, but this seems like a real example

So the bar is so low that just by merely not being a lying anti-democratic grifter, he’s a brave hero?

What he’s doing is good, but it’s also the absolute bare minimum requirement to be a person in a functioning society.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:01 AM on July 11, 2021 [8 favorites]


It takes bravery, of a sort, to say that the leader of your cult is talking nonsense. Humans are social animals, so it's normal to have a revulsion towards things that might separate them from their social group.

The word hero has been overused to the point of losing its meaning, like so many others. That does not take away from the very real bravery involved in being willing to tolerate being ostracized rather than saying some functionally meaningless sugarcoated bullshit to keep the neighbors happy. Neither does that bravery cancel out the regressive views and very real damage acting upon them has caused.

In short, people are complex and rarely are they one dimensional caricatures. Acknowledging the valor of those we disagree with serves to highlight the strength of our own convictions.
posted by wierdo at 5:10 AM on July 11, 2021 [46 favorites]


So the bar is so low that just by merely not being a lying anti-democratic grifter, he’s a brave hero?

Considering he’s consciously gone against the groupthink of a heavily-armed, living-in-an-alternate-reality political party that has shown itself more than willing to invade places of government, issue death warrants for governors, etc., I’d say he qualifies for some definition of “hero.”
posted by Thorzdad at 5:14 AM on July 11, 2021 [37 favorites]


The Republican party has gone so far down the rabbit hole of Trumpism at this point that I don't think that there's any way to fix it. It's nice that this one guy is telling the truth but the party as a whole has gone full on fascist and there's no road back from that.
posted by octothorpe at 5:26 AM on July 11, 2021 [18 favorites]


Let me get this straight: a Republican took many months to look for any evidence that a cartoonishly transparent lie could be seized upon as true? And then when he came to the conclusion that this was just too far gone for him, he said, "sorry boys, not this one."

That's courage?

Let's be clear, an eight month investigation itself is a Republican coup. Giving cover to sow doubt and confusion for eight whole months plays into the Republicans' hands.

This isn't a mobster turning his back on organized crime and helping bring his cronies to justice. This is a criminal saying, "this heist is too risky, we'll never pull it off."

He hasn't sworn off being a Republican, he just thinks this one venture doesn't bear fruit.
posted by explosion at 6:15 AM on July 11, 2021 [29 favorites]


The Michigan Republican Who Stood Up to Trump’s Fraud Claims Still Wants to Restrict the Vote, Because of “Fraud”.
But the biggest issue with McBroom is that while McBroom’s report touts the truth, McBroom himself is still calling for changes to the state’s election system. And his reason for supporting bills that would require ID for mail-in ballots and in-person voting? Fraud.

“We hear a lot about how there was only this little bit of fraud and therefore nothing else is needed. But just because you can say we caught this amount of fraud isn’t somehow compelling proof that there wasn’t more that wasn’t caught,” McBroom said on the Senate floor during the chamber votes on June 16, just a week before his Oversight Committee released the report. “That’s really a mischaracterization and a bit of a red herring.”

To say that all the evidence of your monthslong investigation yielded nothing and then to suggest there might still be more fraud that wasn’t caught is like asserting a brick wall is in great condition after careful analysis, and then insisting on shoring it up anyway just in case. It’s actually more nefarious than that, because it uses one of the central reasons the Republicans’ voter fraud concerns are so salient with their base: It’s extremely hard to prove a negative. McBroom took the extraordinary step to spend months carefully investigating this claim. The real issue is that even he isn’t satisfied by his own results.
Michigan moves ahead with election reform bills
The restrictions would also inhibit those with disabilities, low-income individuals, and young people from expressing their political will, she said.

She added that the changes are unnecessary — the League says Michigan has only seen 12 cases of voter fraud in many years — and perpetuate the widespread claim that former President Donald Trump actually won in November despite President Biden’s victory.

“The 39 bills indicate that the election was not secure,” Ms. Schlitt said. “They shadow the integrity of the election process and play into the big lie that the election was stolen”. . .Mr. McBroom said the uptick in voter turnout “takes more administration,” which renders reform necessary. He said that though the ID bills do not fulfill his recommendations, he thinks they could add a layer of security. Mr. McBroom emphasized that Americans must trust election systems or they may stop voting.

The Michigan legislation reflects the national trend of majority-Republican statehouses reviewing voting access after the 2020 election.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 6:47 AM on July 11, 2021 [33 favorites]


The lesson here is that we've reached a point where even a single Republican politician telling the truth constitutes headline news.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:06 AM on July 11, 2021 [27 favorites]


"Least shit" is still "shit".
posted by pompomtom at 7:58 AM on July 11, 2021 [3 favorites]


5538 healthy people donated a kidney in 2014 in the United States. Of those, 186 were unrelated anonymous donors.

No real relevance to this article, I cite that in case someone from The Atlantic drops by, since they don't seem to know what courage and self sacrifice look like. Because waiting 8 months to tell the truth isn't it.

Congratulations on birthing one of the 9.5 million diary cows in the United States. It sure dazzles those city slicker journos from The Atlantic that farm stuff happens on a fucking farm.
posted by adept256 at 8:59 AM on July 11, 2021 [10 favorites]


So the bar is so low that just by merely not being a lying anti-democratic grifter, he’s a brave hero?


He's a farmer. That means he has hundreds of thousands of dollars in easily-vandalized and not-so-easily guarded physical capital that he's putting at risk by speaking the truth.
posted by ocschwar at 9:35 AM on July 11, 2021 [4 favorites]


Speaking the truth and passing more voter restrictions. Fuck him and his farm. I hope his barn gets graffitied.
posted by ryanrs at 9:47 AM on July 11, 2021 [9 favorites]


It was a dream job—until the nightmare of November 2020.

For McBroom, the real "nightmare" was the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Wayne County (which includes Detroit) was critical in delivering enough votes to save Michigan's electoral college votes from going to Trump in 2020. Make no mistake - he doesn't want votes from there to count.

He's just decided that the fraudulent allegations of voting fraud are not going to be as effective as he initially believed they would be and has abandoned that particular tactic at this time.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:02 AM on July 11, 2021 [7 favorites]


Lifelong Michigander here, and the right-wing element has always been frightening. Let's not forget the Thumb's ties to the Oklahoma City bombings.

Furthermore, Republicans have gerrymandered the shit out of our state legislature and US House districts.

I grew up in a small mid-MI town where the "liberal" editor of a weekly newspaper who lived a couple doors down had a cross burned on his lawn.

Fifty years later, I live in a suburban Detroit district that has one of the most lunatic right wing state reps, a guy who used his government social account (now deleted) to RT Mike Lindell, and drove a busload of people to the insurrection.

Yet he somehow remains both a state rep and a bail bondsman. How do you support overthrowing a government and still retain those two jobs? Because it's a district with a lot of angry racist guys with guns and big white trucks plastered with "don't tread on me stickers."

So, when people say:

he’s consciously gone against the groupthink of a heavily-armed, living-in-an-alternate-reality political party ... I’d say he qualifies for some definition of “hero.”

I get tired of these few Republicans being lauded for what we Democrats stand up to every day.

Some of us have been ostracized in our own families for being the only one to call out the bigoted personality cult, and/or we live somewhere it feels dangerous just to have a Biden-Harris or ACLU sign on our car.

I don't fall all over a member of The GQP who still shows the bare minimum of sanity.

And, my friends, how does this country rebound in the long run with a huge minority of violence-prone fascists, and a Federal government that seems completely unable to A) prosecute their leaders, including the monster t****, and B) ensure future elections?

If Harris, for instance, is the next Dem prez nominee, I'm concerned the right-wing propaganda /racist/ misogynist machine, combined with voter suppression, could crush Dems.
posted by NorthernLite at 10:06 AM on July 11, 2021 [23 favorites]


Thanks to russilvwong for posting this.

When a Republican acknowledges reality despite the overwhelming pressure to deny it, I feel some slight hope that the Trumpists will not prevail.

Like the people McBroom talks about in the final paragraph, my mom is a good person who has been deceived by a campaign of lies from Rush Limbaugh and the Republican party. The only way that she (and many others) will see the light is if Republican politicians who she trusts start acknowledging the fundamental truth that the 2020 presidential election was legit. Long shot, but better than nothing.

Also, as someone who has never risked my personal life, professional life, and/or physical safety to oppose my community, McBroom’s actions regarding the election brave to me. Others’ mileage obviously varies.
posted by lumpy at 11:36 AM on July 11, 2021 [3 favorites]


He can have a cookie if he needs a reward for telling the truth. One cookie.

If he wants more than that, he can start telling the truth about voter suppression laws, instead of claiming that they are necessary reactions to wholly manufactured "public concern" about the safety of any type of voting that does not favor his party AND take steps to oppose and repudiate legislation that is "justified" by that "concern".
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:54 PM on July 11, 2021


Let's put it this way.

An angry, violent mob stormed the Capitol building six months ago with the express intent of installing a particular President/Vice President combination as the winner of the election, despite all available evidence to the contrary.

And the same mob threatened the life of the same Vice President that they were trying to keep in office, elements of the crowd literally calling for his execution for treason because he had refused to obey orders and simply attempt to seize power unilaterally.

Any action defying Trump's Will requires at least a bit of courage. Two smidges. It is professional suicide, and there's that little voice in the back of his head wondering if it might possibly be other kinds as well.
posted by delfin at 6:42 PM on July 11, 2021 [2 favorites]


Let's put it this way.
Counterpoint: while I could be wrong about this, my rough estimate is that the level of personal risk that he assumes by speaking as he has on this issue is not greatly different than the level of risk assumed, for as long as I can remember, by any person of color, woman, or member of a non-cis sexual orientation who has the temerity to hold and publicly discuss a political opinion.

I've changed my mind: he can't have a cookie. There are plenty of more deserving folks who have been dealing with this kind of BS their entire lives. They can have my cookies.
posted by Nerd of the North at 6:53 PM on July 11, 2021 [9 favorites]


related: Rep. Adam Kinzinger on the moral failure of Republicans supporting the Big Lie.
INTERVIEWER: Why wouldn’t you blame them for such cynical behavior?
KINZINGER: When I say I don’t blame, I mean that I can understand. If you’re scared to tell the truth to people, I understand, but you need to find a different line of work. On something as existential as this, as threatening to the Constitution — my goodness. I understand that fear, but I do fully blame them. Because you signed up and ran for the job, and this job comes with tough times.

(Kinzinger was one of ten House Republicans to vote for Trump's impeachment after the Capitol riot)
posted by storybored at 7:10 PM on July 11, 2021 [5 favorites]


OP here. I'd suggest that the question isn't whether McBroom "deserves a cookie" (who cares?). It's that he's a Republican who's willing to openly oppose Trump.

In How Democracies Die, Levitsky and Ziblatt describe how the survival of democracy in the face of a far-right demagogue depends on the response of the center-right. Matt O'Brien:
In countries where the center-right is willing to quarantine the far-right, undemocratic forces should be politically neutralized. But when the center-right gives in to the temptation to try to use the far-right because it thinks that's the only way it can win, then their Faustian bargain can end up like they all do: not as they expected. Mainstream conservatives might find out that they, and not the radicals, were the ones being manipulated. That they weren't appeasing the far-right, but empowering it.
The survival of democracy in the US depends on whether Republicans bend the knee to Trump, like Pence and McConnell, or whether they oppose him, like Liz Cheney and Kinzinger and McBroom.
posted by russilwvong at 8:40 PM on July 11, 2021 [12 favorites]


Levitsky and Ziblatt just published an essay in the Atlantic: The Biggest Threat to Democracy Is the GOP Stealing the Next Election.
The greatest threat to American democracy today is not a repeat of January 6, but the possibility of a stolen presidential election. Contemporary democracies that die meet their end at the ballot box, through measures that are nominally constitutional. The looming danger is not that the mob will return; it’s that mainstream Republicans will “legally” overturn an election [via "hardball" tactics that comply to the letter of the law while violating its spirit].

... For elections to be democratic, all adult citizens must be equally able to cast a ballot and have that vote count. Using the letter of the law to violate the spirit of this principle is strikingly easy. Election officials can legally throw out large numbers of ballots on the basis of the most minor technicalities (e.g., the oval on the ballot is not entirely penciled in, or the mail-in ballot form contains a typo or spelling mistake). Large-scale ballot disqualification accords with the letter of the law, but it is inherently antidemocratic, for it denies suffrage to many voters. Crucially, if hardball criteria are applied unevenly, such that many ballots are disqualified in one party’s stronghold but not in other areas, they can turn an election.

Republican officials across the country are laying the legal infrastructure to do just that. Since January, according to Protect Democracy, Law Forward, and the States United Democracy Center, Republicans have introduced 216 bills (in 41 states) aimed at facilitating hardball electoral tactics. As of June, 24 of these bills had passed, including in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. Approved measures allow Republican-controlled state legislatures or election boards to sideline or override local election administrations in Democratic strongholds. This would allow state legislatures or their appointees to meddle in local decision making, purge voter rolls, and manipulate the number and location of polling places. It would also allow Republicans in Arizona, Georgia, and elsewhere to do something Trump tried and failed to do in 2020: throw out ballots in rival strongholds in order to overturn a statewide result. Finally, the new laws impose criminal penalties for local election officials deemed to violate election procedure. This will enable statewide Republican officials to compel local officials, via threats of criminal prosecution, to engage in electoral hardball. Throwing out thousands of ballots in rival strongholds may be profoundly antidemocratic, but it is technically legal, and Republicans in several states now have a powerful stick with which to enforce such practices.
posted by russilwvong at 9:31 PM on July 11, 2021 [10 favorites]


The survival of democracy in the US depends on whether Republicans bend the knee to Trump, like Pence and McConnell, or whether they oppose him, like Liz Cheney and Kinzinger and McBroom.

This assumes Trump will be the only far-right demagogue, which I can guarantee you will not be the case. And Cheney and Kinzinger and McBroom are not center right; they're all future go-getters of the Republic of Gilead and support killing off democracy by "legal" means, as the second Levitsky and Ziblatt article you posted very helpfully points out. The fact that they didn't steal this election but they're actively working on stealing the next one is why people are reacting so strongly to what appears to be the lionization of a man who not only did the bare minimum, but is enthusiastically supporting the ability of the next demagogue to try it.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:21 AM on July 12, 2021 [8 favorites]


Trump got into power because the various republican candidates decided that it's better to put him in office and let him run amuck than to let democrats win, probably because they thought they can rein him in. They apparently decided that no matter how petty Trump is he wouldn't bite the hand that fed him.

And it's clear they haven't learned their lessons. ANYONE who's against him must be denounced and/or destroyed, Republican or not. It's the basic demagogue's choice: you're either with me or against me (truth be damned).

And it's clear that Republicans have taken this choice to heart... It's better to get elected "by any means" than to actually serve the people.
posted by kschang at 6:06 AM on July 12, 2021 [1 favorite]


> And, my friends, how does this country rebound in the long run with a huge minority of violence-prone fascists, and a Federal government that seems completely unable to A) prosecute their leaders, including the monster t****, and B) ensure future elections?

I honestly don't see how it does. Any day/week/month now Trump will announce that he's running for President, and more than likely he'll "win."
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:58 AM on July 12, 2021 [1 favorite]


more than likely he'll "win."

Eh, there's a good chance he'll win for real against Harris.
posted by ryanrs at 1:23 PM on July 12, 2021


* - Louis Lapham,The American Ruling Class

It's Lewis - my error. And of course the rates have gone up...
posted by zaixfeep at 4:20 PM on July 12, 2021 [1 favorite]


Glegrinof the Pig-Man: This assumes Trump will be the only far-right demagogue -

I would suggest that Trump is an immediate threat to American democracy. There's not much point in worrying about future demagogues if the ramshackle American electoral system doesn't survive Trump. Republicans willing to openly oppose Trump's ridiculous "Stop the Steal" narrative are in short supply.

Trump's Republican opponents, like Liz Cheney or McBroom, may of course be deeply repugnant to progressive voters. But that's not what's important. What's important is keeping Trump from winning 2024 by breaking the machinery of American elections. The kind of hardball Levitsky and Ziblatt are talking about - discarding thousands of votes based on trivial pretexts - is way beyond what we've seen so far.
posted by russilwvong at 7:05 PM on July 12, 2021 [4 favorites]


so far. I'd say to look back to 1960, from the 2016 playbook.
A geo-political shift in a post Covid world that tests one countries territorial acumen resulting in a conflict the U.S. did not start directly is more of an indicator concerning which party may win in 24'. The Executive, most of the Legislature are Democrat but the republicans are still active on the State, and local level. The grass roots, FLOABT.
That's what this story is partially about, how is the political landscape looking post Trump. If America can start to unwind it's military culture, address immediate environmental threats and broker new alliances based on cooperation then National interest, there a chance but the route is devestating to the existing monetary system, the real issue that countries may war over. To that end, Americans will vote in a someone to handle that. The Republicans formed in 1858 ( I think) because of a moral, legal and political reasons. Just think if a another party forms in this time, not for the same reasons but for many under the aegis of one, National Interest. that's what terrifies me.
posted by clavdivs at 9:12 PM on July 12, 2021


Trump's Republican opponents, like Liz Cheney or McBroom, may of course be deeply repugnant to progressive voters. But that's not what's important. What's important is keeping Trump from winning 2024 by breaking the machinery of American elections. The kind of hardball Levitsky and Ziblatt are talking about - discarding thousands of votes based on trivial pretexts - is way beyond what we've seen so far.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record: these people are already trying to help Trump win in 2024 by breaking the machinery of American elections. That they're doing it by making it illegal to vote in the first place instead of directly discarding the votes is arguably far worse, because no one can sue to have their vote counted if they can't vote at all. The fact that it's not "way beyond" what has happened yet (and I'd argue this is debatable given this country's history) is the point, because now they have two centuries' worth of inspiration for voter suppression that SCOTUS has given them carte blanc to use.

Why this still counts as "heroism" and not further evidence of their depravity is an exercise I will leave to others. In the meantime, I'll honor those actually fighting for voting rights, like the Democratic lawmakers of Texas, who are leaving the state to deny a quorum for voter suppression, anti-trans, and racist education laws, inviting not only violence from Trump supporters, but the violence of the state itself.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:19 AM on July 13, 2021 [10 favorites]


Glegrinof the Pig-Man: That they're doing it by making it illegal to vote in the first place instead of directly discarding the votes is arguably far worse, because no one can sue to have their vote counted if they can't vote at all.

The ballot access restrictions supported even by anti-Trump Republicans are bad (in a democracy you want to make it easy for people to vote), but in terms of partisan impact - does it actually make Republicans more likely to win elections? - it looks like it doesn't matter much at all. The big threat is Trump's "Stop the Steal" attack on counting the votes.

Vox reviews the research on mail-in ballot restrictions:
In response to Trump’s attacks on vote-by-mail last summer, researchers went to work to study the validity of his claims. Oregon was the first state to introduce voting by mail for local elections in the 1980s, and it became a universal vote-by-mail state in 2000, giving academics decades of data to evaluate.

In their 2020 paper “The Participatory and Partisan Impacts of Mandatory Vote-by-Mail,” co-authors [Michael] Barber and John B. Holbein, of the University of Virginia, compared the rollout of universal vote-by-mail elections in several states where the transition happened on a county-by-county basis. The analysis found no partisan impact on election results. Using mail voting as the primary method for participation only increased turnout by about 2 percentage points overall.

... Jennifer Wu, of Stanford University, co-authored a research paper with Daniel Thompson, Jesse Yoder, and Andrew Hall, that found similar results. After evaluating two decades of elections, Wu’s analysis found that election results after the expansions of vote-by-mail were much the same as in previous elections.

“People should be cautious about making any big sweeping generalizations that vote by mail will benefit any party because the research doesn’t suggest that,” Wu told Vox. ...

In summary, the authors wrote that vote-by-mail “offers voters considerable convenience, increases turnout rates modestly, but has no discernible effect on party vote shares or the partisan share of the electorate.”
More generally:
Those who are most affected by barriers to the ballot box are the low-propensity voters, those who turn out sporadically or every four years for elections.

The Republican Party is becoming more reliant on low-propensity voters and working-class voters, who have less flexibility in their schedules to wait in long lines on Election Day. This simultaneous reliance on low-propensity voters and the desire to make voting more difficult could hurt Republicans in the next election cycle.

“Even if these policies had an impact, which I don’t think that they do, in some cases it’s kind of self-defeating,” Barber said. “If you’re the Republican Party and you’re seeing your party becoming more and more the party of the white working class, well the white working class are marginal voters. They’re not nearly as reliable as college-educated voters. So if your party is shedding college-educated voters and gaining working-class voters, you would think the last thing you want to do is making voting more difficult.”
posted by russilwvong at 12:28 PM on July 13, 2021 [1 favorite]


So Vox reports that expanded vote-by-mail in places like Oregon and Utah didn't favor one party over the other, and only slightly increased turnout. Therefore—stay with me here—Republican's voting restrictions probably also won't favor one party over another. In fact, the Republican's plan might even help the Dems! That's the thrust of the article, yeah?

Vote by mail lets voters escape community-targeted vote suppression. For example, Republicans can't reduce polling locations in Black neighborhoods if everyone votes by mail.

Vox is arguing that Republican-designed voting restrictions won't favor Republicans. That's a maliciously stupid take.
posted by ryanrs at 9:31 AM on July 14, 2021 [3 favorites]


Vox is arguing that Republican-designed voting restrictions won't favor Republicans. That's a maliciously stupid take.
But that's what 4 out of 5 dentists 6 out of 9 justices say when polled!
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:28 PM on July 14, 2021 [1 favorite]


Vox is arguing that Republican-designed voting restrictions won't favor Republicans. That's a maliciously stupid take.

By that logic Republican-designed pandemic and vaccine messaging obviously can't be making things worse for Republican voters, and yet here we are.

The Republican party is not a rational organization, and at least part of their policy focus has to cater to people with no connection to reality.
posted by mark k at 3:17 PM on July 14, 2021 [2 favorites]


Vox is arguing that Republican-designed voting restrictions won't favor Republicans. That's a maliciously stupid take.

To be fair, Republicans are very stupid and prone to shooting themselves in the foot.
posted by octothorpe at 3:31 PM on July 14, 2021


This FARKer's comment (CW: it's FARK.COM, do the math) today nicely expands on my earlier comment above. Pull quote: "And I will say that theory [M. Woolf opined that Trump may believe his voice alone has reality-altering powers] is entirely plausible. I have met numerous rich business leaders who have the same idea, that them just wanting something alters reality itself"
posted by zaixfeep at 6:04 PM on July 14, 2021


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