Are we experiencing global warming’s tipping point in real time?

July 16, 2021 11:22 PM

There have been many deadlines set for when global warming might become irreversible – 400 parts of CO² per million, then 420, which we blew past; the year of 2050, then 2030; 2°C above historic norms. But with what has happened these past few weeks - London, Tokyo and Germany covered in floodwater, California and Western Canada entering a pyrocene, the Amazon turning from a carbon absorber into an emitter, all at the same time – may indicate that we’re experiencing that tipping point right now, decades earlier than most predictions, and in real time, rather than across generations.
posted by Bora Horza Gobuchul (5 comments total)

Yes but please don't despair, this should only make you want to fight harder for a faster end to fossil fuel usage.
posted by molecicco at 11:45 PM on July 16, 2021 [4 favorites]

Female Colonel Sanders, easy answers, civil war
The whole world at your fingertips, the ocean at your door

The live-action Lion King, the Pepsi Halftime Show
20,000 years of this, seven more to go

Carpool Karaoke, Steve Aoki, Logan Paul
A gift shop at the gun range, a mass shooting at the mall

There it is again, that funny feeling, that funny feeling
There it is again, that funny feeling, that funny feeling [...]

That unapparent summer air in early fall
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

Hey, what can you say? We were overdue
But it will be over soon, just wait
posted by Rhaomi at 12:12 AM on July 17, 2021 [4 favorites]

Seconding molecicco. This is only reason to fight harder, not give up.
posted by vernondalhart at 12:20 AM on July 17, 2021 [1 favorite]

Yes, also echoing earlier words about not to despair. In a warped way I also have this thought that corporations are the immortals of this world, they will outlive us all. They are driven by profit, and if you look strategically, there's no profit in what's currently happening. Financial companies that manage tremendous amount of wealth and with it influence, are looking and pushing for sustainable investments.
posted by ben30 at 12:32 AM on July 17, 2021 [2 favorites]

Probably yes. IPCC have AFAICT generally veered away from emphasizing worst-case scenarios, although the knowledge that weather would become highly unpredictable and extreme has been there a long time - I was reading about this 45 years ago. but n-thing molecicco we must not give up.

Overlooked is the CO2 level itself and it's effect on runoff (regardless of warming). eCO2 makes many plants more water efficient and when you scale this up flooding results; Cui et al 2021 Vegetation Response to Rising CO2 Amplifies Contrasts in Water Resources Between Global Wet and Dry Land Areas and Fowler et al 2019 The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow. This is intensely unpopular even in supposedly climate conscious NZ, I have done everything possible here to try and raise awareness but govt/power does not want to know.

In NZ we keep having 'Red Warning' weather events "most extreme"; we're had three since 2019, with two in the last 6 weeks, NZ has flooding but this is extreme even here - our West Coast has just had 600mm rain in 48 hours and it's still raining.

My network tells me they've lost all seasonality and now only get droughts and rain (also sudden warming/cooling) - this aspect almost never gets in the news, and there seems to be an unwritten edict to not join the dots. Locked weather conditions are also very common now.

I will keep on. Giving up means giving up to people who belong to a death cult.
posted by unearthed at 12:44 AM on July 17, 2021 [2 favorites]