It's gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright) sunshiny day
August 7, 2021 8:42 AM Subscribe
To try to mitigate the widespread fears and pessimism about the future, Wired co-founder and lifelong techno-optimist Kevin Kelly (earlier) makes his Case for Optimism.
His reasons for optimism at this particular time:
There are two important sets of reasons why you should be optimistic right now. One is the general case for optimism at any time. The second reason is a handful of forces at work in the world that make specific cases for optimism at this particular time, in 2021.
His reasons for optimism at this particular time:
1) Total Urbanization
2) Universal Connectivity
3) Ubiquitous AI
4) Sustainable Energy
5) Accelerated Innovation
6) Bio-Engineering
7) Generational Handoff
Same article he's been writing since the mid-nineties. Still the same collection of truths assembled into something that looks more and more like a lie.
posted by thatwhichfalls at 9:09 AM on August 7, 2021 [28 favorites]
posted by thatwhichfalls at 9:09 AM on August 7, 2021 [28 favorites]
I was just saying yesterday that I don't actually think urbanization is all it's made out to be. I'd like to see urban environments that are no larger than can be supported by (and support) the land around them and the people in them.
Less livestock and more food forests. Lots fewer motor vehicles. There comes a point at which the specialization that comes with urbanization gives us diminishing returns. We need fresh air and greenery. We need people who feel a connection to each other and the earth.
posted by aniola at 9:10 AM on August 7, 2021 [19 favorites]
Less livestock and more food forests. Lots fewer motor vehicles. There comes a point at which the specialization that comes with urbanization gives us diminishing returns. We need fresh air and greenery. We need people who feel a connection to each other and the earth.
posted by aniola at 9:10 AM on August 7, 2021 [19 favorites]
Wow a guy with too much money and an nice life and job has a positive outlook on the world
posted by GoblinHoney at 9:28 AM on August 7, 2021 [37 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 9:28 AM on August 7, 2021 [37 favorites]
Maybe he has those things because of his outlook.
posted by firstdaffodils at 9:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by firstdaffodils at 9:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
A caveat: I am talking about the state of the world and its future on average global terms. [...] Parts of the globe may suffer war, disease, famine, unrest in times of prosperity. It may be very bleak in some areas, where pessimism seems totally appropriate. History suggests these bleak times are temporary, and that on average, better times will come. The case for optimism is a longer-term view, and a bigger-place view.Everything's gonna be great! Except for the people for whom everything is gonna suck, but we're not concerned about them.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:37 AM on August 7, 2021 [13 favorites]
wtF?!? I swear, I don't know why Maslow even wasted his time, everybody ignores the bottom three or four rungs.
Yippeeee, ubiquitous AI! That should make the dead oceans, global drought, unsurvivable ambient surface temperatures, and weekly new plagues a whole lot more fun to watch! No worries, none of this stuff will ever touch Brooklyn or the Bay Area, we'll just get our food, air, and water shipped in from the Mars colonies.
posted by Don Pepino at 9:40 AM on August 7, 2021 [16 favorites]
Yippeeee, ubiquitous AI! That should make the dead oceans, global drought, unsurvivable ambient surface temperatures, and weekly new plagues a whole lot more fun to watch! No worries, none of this stuff will ever touch Brooklyn or the Bay Area, we'll just get our food, air, and water shipped in from the Mars colonies.
posted by Don Pepino at 9:40 AM on August 7, 2021 [16 favorites]
History suggests these bleak times are temporary, and that on average, better times will come.
Hahahahaha.
Hey Dinosaurs, this meteor is gonna be temporary.
posted by Philipschall at 9:43 AM on August 7, 2021 [13 favorites]
Hahahahaha.
Hey Dinosaurs, this meteor is gonna be temporary.
posted by Philipschall at 9:43 AM on August 7, 2021 [13 favorites]
I am smiling at these responses. This is the best Rorschach Test ever.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:43 AM on August 7, 2021 [28 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:43 AM on August 7, 2021 [28 favorites]
I'm a techno-optimist and I broadly agree with most of this. However, the main reason for pessimism is that extinction is an attractor state. Once there are enough nuclear weapons in the world, which there have been for 60+ years now, it only takes one mistake. Over time, technology will only add new options for burning everything down with one mistake.
posted by allegedly at 9:44 AM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by allegedly at 9:44 AM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
@aniola:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169204621001572
We found for the UK, that every 1,000 units/km2 increment in residential density within a 1-Km network catchment was independently associated with a 2.8% (odds ratio: 1.028, p = 0.0058) and 11.4% (OR: 1.114, p less than 0.0001) higher odds of loneliness and social isolation respectively .
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-big-cities-hinterlands-sustain-growth.html
https://theconversation.com/cities-increase-your-risk-of-depression-anxiety-and-psychosis-but-bring-mental-health-benefits-too-128911
I was just reading about this, on the recommendation of someone else. Seems like cities and high urban density aren't the unalloyed good that a lot of technocrats make them out to be. There are always bonuses afforded to efficiency; economic productivity, of course, and that plays a big part in why we're told they're near-mandatory.
posted by constantinescharity at 9:46 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169204621001572
We found for the UK, that every 1,000 units/km2 increment in residential density within a 1-Km network catchment was independently associated with a 2.8% (odds ratio: 1.028, p = 0.0058) and 11.4% (OR: 1.114, p less than 0.0001) higher odds of loneliness and social isolation respectively .
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-big-cities-hinterlands-sustain-growth.html
https://theconversation.com/cities-increase-your-risk-of-depression-anxiety-and-psychosis-but-bring-mental-health-benefits-too-128911
I was just reading about this, on the recommendation of someone else. Seems like cities and high urban density aren't the unalloyed good that a lot of technocrats make them out to be. There are always bonuses afforded to efficiency; economic productivity, of course, and that plays a big part in why we're told they're near-mandatory.
posted by constantinescharity at 9:46 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
Except for the people for whom everything is gonna suck, but we're not concerned about them.
It's not about being uncaring or unconcerned about all of the bad things that are going to happen for some people, but that if no one can be happy until no bad things happen, then no one will ever be happy.
Hope is greater than despair. I want to fix problems because I believe problems can be fixed.
posted by allegedly at 9:48 AM on August 7, 2021 [27 favorites]
It's not about being uncaring or unconcerned about all of the bad things that are going to happen for some people, but that if no one can be happy until no bad things happen, then no one will ever be happy.
Hope is greater than despair. I want to fix problems because I believe problems can be fixed.
posted by allegedly at 9:48 AM on August 7, 2021 [27 favorites]
You can acknowledge and work towards alleviating problems while still having hope for the future. No one has to be an optimist, but acting like optimism is somehow willfully naive is tiresome.
Hope is a discipline.
posted by the primroses were over at 9:48 AM on August 7, 2021 [33 favorites]
Hope is a discipline.
posted by the primroses were over at 9:48 AM on August 7, 2021 [33 favorites]
In case it's of interest, a talk on similar themes. (It's not unlikely Kelly was involved in hosting the talk - I don't remember. It's been a while.)
I'm genuinely torn when it comes to this discussion. On one hand, the idea of history as a story of progress has a lot of specific counter-examples and seems like it can be a dangerous assumption. I'd much rather live in St. Louis in 1200 than 1830.
On the other hand, I'd much rather be alive today than at any other time in human history. That's worth considering carefully.
posted by eotvos at 9:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
I'm genuinely torn when it comes to this discussion. On one hand, the idea of history as a story of progress has a lot of specific counter-examples and seems like it can be a dangerous assumption. I'd much rather live in St. Louis in 1200 than 1830.
On the other hand, I'd much rather be alive today than at any other time in human history. That's worth considering carefully.
posted by eotvos at 9:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
To not abuse the edit window: I think it's clear that Mariame Kaba and Kevin Kelly would have multiple points of disagreement about what we can and should hope for in the future. Not trying to dissuade anyone from critiquing the arguments in this piece. But knee jerk, haha hope is for suckers responses always seem to pile up quickly in response to these kind of things, and it gets exhausting.
posted by the primroses were over at 9:59 AM on August 7, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by the primroses were over at 9:59 AM on August 7, 2021 [10 favorites]
the main reason for pessimism is... nuclear weapons
How'd you pick that one? Is it because that's the only one that hasn't already happened? Your main reason for pessimism depends on a future act of wild impetuous stupidity. My main reasons for pessimism include that the permafrost is melting and the reefs are dying and the oceans are inexorably turning to vinegar that will not sustain food fish. The things we did that caused those humanextinctionogenic events are in the past; meanwhile new acts of wild impetuous stupidity are occurring in the present. But cities will have solar panels in the roads and lab-grown beef and the Boomers will all be dead, so... hooray?
hope is for suckers responses always seem to pile up quickly in response to these kind of things
In this case, I think that's probably because he's offering sucker reasons to hope. He's not offering solutions to the actual problems. What about the bottom rungs? If we succeed in crashing the current systems providing us with air, water, and food, where are we going to get air, water, and food?
posted by Don Pepino at 10:02 AM on August 7, 2021 [11 favorites]
How'd you pick that one? Is it because that's the only one that hasn't already happened? Your main reason for pessimism depends on a future act of wild impetuous stupidity. My main reasons for pessimism include that the permafrost is melting and the reefs are dying and the oceans are inexorably turning to vinegar that will not sustain food fish. The things we did that caused those humanextinctionogenic events are in the past; meanwhile new acts of wild impetuous stupidity are occurring in the present. But cities will have solar panels in the roads and lab-grown beef and the Boomers will all be dead, so... hooray?
hope is for suckers responses always seem to pile up quickly in response to these kind of things
In this case, I think that's probably because he's offering sucker reasons to hope. He's not offering solutions to the actual problems. What about the bottom rungs? If we succeed in crashing the current systems providing us with air, water, and food, where are we going to get air, water, and food?
posted by Don Pepino at 10:02 AM on August 7, 2021 [11 favorites]
How'd you pick that one?
Now that we have a pretty decent survey of large asteroids, nuclear weapons are the only immediate extinction-level threat to humanity. It would take 30 minutes (to become irreversible, longer until everyone actually dies) and could happen at any moment. This is a real problem that will only be solved by global nuclear disarmament someday. There might be other threats like supervolcanos but it's unclear whether these are likely.
By comparison, climate change is fixable. If it kills us, it will take considerably longer than 30 minutes to get there.
posted by allegedly at 10:10 AM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
Now that we have a pretty decent survey of large asteroids, nuclear weapons are the only immediate extinction-level threat to humanity. It would take 30 minutes (to become irreversible, longer until everyone actually dies) and could happen at any moment. This is a real problem that will only be solved by global nuclear disarmament someday. There might be other threats like supervolcanos but it's unclear whether these are likely.
By comparison, climate change is fixable. If it kills us, it will take considerably longer than 30 minutes to get there.
posted by allegedly at 10:10 AM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
I think ubiquitous, distributed, broadly available AI would be a cause for optimism. However, the trend in AI is instead towards a highly centralized arrangement, where a handful of giant companies control hardware resources and proprietary models (trained from 'public' data), and everyone else is left to rent the scraps. And I think this is emblematic of Kelly's outlook in general, which sees brute supply growth as more important than the minor details of distributional issues.
posted by Pyry at 10:13 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 10:13 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
Update: I went out in the living room to explain to my beloved how I am wasting hours of Saturday typing on Metafilter about Maslow's hierarchy and how Wired co-founder and lifelong techno-optimist Kevin Kelly is wrong about The Future, and he said that World of Tanks is like third from the bottom in the hierarchy of needs, and I said "So between air and water? Or water and food?" and he said "AAAAAAAAARGH!!!" because for the millionth time we see demonstrated that it is not possible to engage in conversation and play World of Tanks at the same time, and so his tank blew up.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:21 AM on August 7, 2021 [31 favorites]
posted by Don Pepino at 10:21 AM on August 7, 2021 [31 favorites]
> Maybe he has those things because of his outlook.
I rather think he has that outlook because he has those things. Life changes considerably when you're flying high. You can afford to look beyond the next hour, or day, or week or month. Which isn't to say there are no poor optimists, because at some point, that's all you've got left.
But optimism if more filling when you have money.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 10:28 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
I rather think he has that outlook because he has those things. Life changes considerably when you're flying high. You can afford to look beyond the next hour, or day, or week or month. Which isn't to say there are no poor optimists, because at some point, that's all you've got left.
But optimism if more filling when you have money.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 10:28 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
I just heard the term Toxic Optimism/Positivity and I'm getting shades of it in the article.
There tends to be a tendency to ignore extremely long-term trends and behaviors like climate change and suburbanization, to believe there is a "turning point" for technologies right around the corner where they will solve everything, we just have to believe.
Also not surprising that he talks about the Boomers retiring (alas, they still vote!) and talks about handing it off to the millennials, completely skipping over Generation X, because they don't fit into the narrative.
posted by meowzilla at 10:31 AM on August 7, 2021 [15 favorites]
There tends to be a tendency to ignore extremely long-term trends and behaviors like climate change and suburbanization, to believe there is a "turning point" for technologies right around the corner where they will solve everything, we just have to believe.
Also not surprising that he talks about the Boomers retiring (alas, they still vote!) and talks about handing it off to the millennials, completely skipping over Generation X, because they don't fit into the narrative.
posted by meowzilla at 10:31 AM on August 7, 2021 [15 favorites]
Wow a guy with too much money and an nice life and job has a positive outlook on the world.
here tends to be a tendency to ignore extremely long-term trends and behaviors like climate change and suburbanization, to believe there is a "turning point" for technologies right around the corner where they will solve everything, we just have to believe.
Kelly is a direct heir to a particularly noxious aspect of the futurism of Stewart Brand and the Whole Earth Catalog. For all that was interesting and influential about it, they never seem to have been capable of genuinely accounting for their own privilege in their prescriptions for cultural change, or to temper the reflexive optimism/futurism of their youth to account, in a thoughtful way, for deteriorating current conditions. As time has gone on, the two of them have gone from seeming in many ways very prescient to increasingly oblivious or pollyannish.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:33 AM on August 7, 2021 [19 favorites]
here tends to be a tendency to ignore extremely long-term trends and behaviors like climate change and suburbanization, to believe there is a "turning point" for technologies right around the corner where they will solve everything, we just have to believe.
Kelly is a direct heir to a particularly noxious aspect of the futurism of Stewart Brand and the Whole Earth Catalog. For all that was interesting and influential about it, they never seem to have been capable of genuinely accounting for their own privilege in their prescriptions for cultural change, or to temper the reflexive optimism/futurism of their youth to account, in a thoughtful way, for deteriorating current conditions. As time has gone on, the two of them have gone from seeming in many ways very prescient to increasingly oblivious or pollyannish.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:33 AM on August 7, 2021 [19 favorites]
I am at least somewhat optimistic, and I can see how being optimistic can help people achieve things and probably be happier. I think some of these ideas might be helpful to someone who has everything they need except a positive attitude. But he doesn’t even acknowledge that people might be pessimistic because they are subjected to discrimination every day. Or because they spend their day searching a landfill for recyclable materials instead of going to grade school. If he is such a believer in optimism, wouldn’t it make sense to have at least some vague notion about how to get people into a place where they can embrace optimism? The closest he seems to get is a suggestion of parenting, training and education.
Studies by psychologists show that those who adopt the optimistic assumption are more resilient, better able to adapt and thrive, while the pessimistic struggle more. Everyone is born with a different bias, but a child’s assumption can be shifted toward a more optimistic and resilient view by parenting, training, and education.
posted by snofoam at 10:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Studies by psychologists show that those who adopt the optimistic assumption are more resilient, better able to adapt and thrive, while the pessimistic struggle more. Everyone is born with a different bias, but a child’s assumption can be shifted toward a more optimistic and resilient view by parenting, training, and education.
posted by snofoam at 10:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
After 1976 came 1980-1986.
After 1992 came 1994-2006.
After 2008 came 2010-2018.
After 2020 comes 2022-20??.
Still a lot of damage that can be done to this county this decade; we seem to be in a widening gyre, circling the drain as it were.
Maybe high-res VR glasses will be a sufficient fix for this, but I have my doubts.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:42 AM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
After 1992 came 1994-2006.
After 2008 came 2010-2018.
After 2020 comes 2022-20??.
Still a lot of damage that can be done to this county this decade; we seem to be in a widening gyre, circling the drain as it were.
Maybe high-res VR glasses will be a sufficient fix for this, but I have my doubts.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:42 AM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
"By comparison, climate change is fixable."
If this naivete wasn't more damning, I would be laughing at it's absurdity. The chance we had to "fix" climate change was thirty fucking years ago or more. Ask the god damned scientists.
Also, we've got like, what, 70 years of topsoil left? It takes thousands of years to produce topsoil. Sure, we're just going to magically science our way out of it with optimism.
posted by deadaluspark at 10:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [11 favorites]
If this naivete wasn't more damning, I would be laughing at it's absurdity. The chance we had to "fix" climate change was thirty fucking years ago or more. Ask the god damned scientists.
Also, we've got like, what, 70 years of topsoil left? It takes thousands of years to produce topsoil. Sure, we're just going to magically science our way out of it with optimism.
posted by deadaluspark at 10:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [11 favorites]
"completely skipping over Generation X, because they don't fit into the narrative."
Color me surprised, I figured it was the general "people always forget Gen X even exists."
posted by deadaluspark at 10:54 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Color me surprised, I figured it was the general "people always forget Gen X even exists."
posted by deadaluspark at 10:54 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Born the tail end of 1970, so solid GenX. I remember back in the early '90s when we were the "Slacker Generation" (there was even a movie called Slacker that was supposed to have epitomized my generation). Soon after that, GenX just disappeared. I sort of enjoy this fact.
posted by SoberHighland at 11:02 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by SoberHighland at 11:02 AM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
Also cartoon
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fable
posted by Jacen at 11:17 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fable
posted by Jacen at 11:17 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
If this naivete wasn't more damning, I would be laughing at it's absurdity. The chance we had to "fix" climate change was thirty fucking years ago or more.
That's just despair talking. Is your position that because of actions not taken 30 years ago, human civilization is completely doomed and will definitely die out?
I do not agree. Worst case, there are geoengineering options that we haven't even explored yet.
posted by allegedly at 11:17 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
That's just despair talking. Is your position that because of actions not taken 30 years ago, human civilization is completely doomed and will definitely die out?
I do not agree. Worst case, there are geoengineering options that we haven't even explored yet.
posted by allegedly at 11:17 AM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Depends on where you are and how wealthy you are. For billions of people, yeah, they are facing horrible deaths in the next few decades. Maybe "humanity" will live on, but that's really abstract when you, your way of life, and most people you know end up at the raw end of "progress."
posted by GoblinHoney at 11:34 AM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 11:34 AM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
We are now certain of the truth that if you give people bad information, they will do the wrong thing.
Kevin Kelly comes out of Whole Earth culture whose most famous artifact was the Whole Earth Catalog, it was founded on the belief that if you give people good information, they will do the right thing.
Maybe he's out of sync with the times, if so, I can't fault him for wanting to be.
posted by otherchaz at 11:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Kevin Kelly comes out of Whole Earth culture whose most famous artifact was the Whole Earth Catalog, it was founded on the belief that if you give people good information, they will do the right thing.
Maybe he's out of sync with the times, if so, I can't fault him for wanting to be.
posted by otherchaz at 11:35 AM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Worst case, there are geoengineering options that we haven't even explored yet.
Sorry, but that's just fantasy. Some miracle of geoengineering is the best case scenario. What we're currently headed for is a multi-decade collapse that rapidly makes its way up the socioeconomic ladder until the only ones that are left are the ultra wealthy. It won't be the worst case scenario (full extinction of humanity), but it's not very far off.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:38 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
Sorry, but that's just fantasy. Some miracle of geoengineering is the best case scenario. What we're currently headed for is a multi-decade collapse that rapidly makes its way up the socioeconomic ladder until the only ones that are left are the ultra wealthy. It won't be the worst case scenario (full extinction of humanity), but it's not very far off.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:38 AM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
Mod note: Couple comments removed. deadaluspark, this thing with turning it up to eleven in comments and going in the direction of violent fantasies is a recurring thing and I need you to stop doing that, period, going forward. Disagreeing on stuff is fine, but participate here like you're in a community space, not yelling at randos who aren't saying what you want to hear.
posted by cortex (staff) at 11:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 11:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [10 favorites]
until the only ones that are left are the ultra wealthy.
For how long?
posted by Stoneshop at 12:23 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
For how long?
posted by Stoneshop at 12:23 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Look, I'm all for optimism, but this is like a guy in 1987 who's still excited that leaded fuel will let us drive more and bring the world closer together.
posted by phooky at 12:23 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by phooky at 12:23 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
for me, optimism and pessimism share the same inherent flaw, which is that they're predictions. And I grew annoyed with predictions a long time ago. Because they're always wrong, almost anyway. Which makes the accurate ones exceptions that prove the rule.
The rule being that despite all the data, nobody ever really knows what happens next. And even if they get that right, do they get what happens after that right? And even if ... you eventually just end up like the LA architect who built himself a multi million dollar earthquake proof home and then the Northridge Earthquake of 1994 hit and the home performed perfectly. Near the epicentre yet almost zero damage. Except the architect wasn't home at the time, he was riding in an elevator in an old apartment building he owned, got stuck between floors for many long hours.
Confusion is always next one way or another.
Isn't it?
posted by philip-random at 12:30 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
The rule being that despite all the data, nobody ever really knows what happens next. And even if they get that right, do they get what happens after that right? And even if ... you eventually just end up like the LA architect who built himself a multi million dollar earthquake proof home and then the Northridge Earthquake of 1994 hit and the home performed perfectly. Near the epicentre yet almost zero damage. Except the architect wasn't home at the time, he was riding in an elevator in an old apartment building he owned, got stuck between floors for many long hours.
Confusion is always next one way or another.
Isn't it?
posted by philip-random at 12:30 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
I've been familiar with Kevin Kelly since whole Earth Catalog/ Co-Evolution Quarterly days. He's an interesting person, his photography is stunning, CoolTools is a useful resource, one of the only email newsletters I read regularly. The Whole Earth culture has a lot that's not right/ weird; sexism, and lack of race awareness not the least, but I grew up in a place devoid of much intellectual curiosity, well before the Web, and it was a hell of a resource. Kelly comes from privilege, seems to be in the top 10%, not the top 2%, for whatever that's worth. He's not a target for me.
I'm not feeling much love for his numbered reasons to be optimistic, but the case for optimism he makes leading up to them is reasonable. Civilization requires optimism may be true, though I'd probably say Taking action on Climate Emergency requires optimism. The people I know who are pessimistic about Climate are probably mostly right, but it's more useful and important to act against it and look for approaches to respond to Climate Crisis. There's a lot of magical thinking about innovations that might save us; mostly from billionaires whose aggressive capitalism is causing the problem.
I'm feeling quite bleak about climate, and that feeling seeps out and colors my life but does nothing to help. 2019-2020 seems to have been a turning point; Australia's bushfire season, and now wildfires around the world in Siberia, Greece, California, are literal beacons. If I could figure out how to muster up some optimism, it would be pleasant and would not make the climate any worse.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
I'm not feeling much love for his numbered reasons to be optimistic, but the case for optimism he makes leading up to them is reasonable. Civilization requires optimism may be true, though I'd probably say Taking action on Climate Emergency requires optimism. The people I know who are pessimistic about Climate are probably mostly right, but it's more useful and important to act against it and look for approaches to respond to Climate Crisis. There's a lot of magical thinking about innovations that might save us; mostly from billionaires whose aggressive capitalism is causing the problem.
I'm feeling quite bleak about climate, and that feeling seeps out and colors my life but does nothing to help. 2019-2020 seems to have been a turning point; Australia's bushfire season, and now wildfires around the world in Siberia, Greece, California, are literal beacons. If I could figure out how to muster up some optimism, it would be pleasant and would not make the climate any worse.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
I have played some competitive card games. One trick I learned when facing a difficult situation was 'playing to my outs'. I lose unless Lightning Bolt is my top card? Fine, I make all my other moves assuming that it is, so if I get the lucky break I can take advantage.
Maybe humanity is screwed, there's nothing we can do to prevent the climate crisis/nuclear war/an asteroid strike/Skynet and everything will inevitably fall apart and there is nothing we can do to prevent imminent global collapse. But what if that's not true? What if we can solve, or at least mitigate, these problems? If that's the case, don't we owe it to our descendents to at least try to do that, rather than wallowing in despair because they seem hard?
posted by Urtylug at 12:46 PM on August 7, 2021 [25 favorites]
Maybe humanity is screwed, there's nothing we can do to prevent the climate crisis/nuclear war/an asteroid strike/Skynet and everything will inevitably fall apart and there is nothing we can do to prevent imminent global collapse. But what if that's not true? What if we can solve, or at least mitigate, these problems? If that's the case, don't we owe it to our descendents to at least try to do that, rather than wallowing in despair because they seem hard?
posted by Urtylug at 12:46 PM on August 7, 2021 [25 favorites]
I get the impression that I could get a lot of metafilter support for a climate change policy platform of "legalize cocaine and party as hard as possible before slipping into the sweet embrace of death" but I'd rather not abandon hope quite so easily.
posted by allegedly at 1:01 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by allegedly at 1:01 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
Maybe humanity is screwed, there's nothing we can do to prevent the climate crisis/nuclear war/an asteroid strike/Skynet and everything will inevitably fall apart and there is nothing we can do to prevent imminent global collapse. But what if that's not true? What if we can solve, or at least mitigate, these problems? If that's the case, don't we owe it to our descendents to at least try to do that, rather than wallowing in despair because they seem hard?
Oh, we could do it. We could take on a global, strictly-enforced mandate that the carbon economy end VERY VERY soon and suddenly and allow for a whole lot of chaos while we establish something new. But there are literally ZERO market-based solutions to the climate crisis, and until something truly drastic is decided AND ENFORCED so the change to something new is swift, we're just screwed.
We pretend we can do this gradually, but the time to make those moves were 20-30 years ago. At this point, I don't see anything other than immediate and disruptive crisis mode to shift away from carbon is going to make any difference.
I'm glad people out there are optimists. I don't see any foundational reasoning upon which to base feeling that way for myself.
posted by hippybear at 1:14 PM on August 7, 2021 [8 favorites]
Oh, we could do it. We could take on a global, strictly-enforced mandate that the carbon economy end VERY VERY soon and suddenly and allow for a whole lot of chaos while we establish something new. But there are literally ZERO market-based solutions to the climate crisis, and until something truly drastic is decided AND ENFORCED so the change to something new is swift, we're just screwed.
We pretend we can do this gradually, but the time to make those moves were 20-30 years ago. At this point, I don't see anything other than immediate and disruptive crisis mode to shift away from carbon is going to make any difference.
I'm glad people out there are optimists. I don't see any foundational reasoning upon which to base feeling that way for myself.
posted by hippybear at 1:14 PM on August 7, 2021 [8 favorites]
I will admit I scanned the article quickly, but I didn't see anything about concentration of wealth (and thus power). This is an ongoing trend on a multi-decade timescale, and it's blocking us from action that needs to be takes much faster than that to even take our best shot on climate change.
Optimism seems to require a fortuitously arranged revolution or other external shock, I don't even know what.
Or if we're optimisming to the far side of climate catastrophe, I'll just step out of that.
posted by away for regrooving at 1:16 PM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
Optimism seems to require a fortuitously arranged revolution or other external shock, I don't even know what.
Or if we're optimisming to the far side of climate catastrophe, I'll just step out of that.
posted by away for regrooving at 1:16 PM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
A nice dream for a Saturday
posted by EatTheWeek at 1:41 PM on August 7, 2021
posted by EatTheWeek at 1:41 PM on August 7, 2021
Pascal's wager come back to haunt us in the biggest possible way, only it's not the existence of God we're betting on, it's the existence of a future for our species.
posted by jamjam at 1:50 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by jamjam at 1:50 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
>We found for the UK, that every 1,000 units/km2 increment in residential density within a 1-Km network catchment was independently associated with a 2.8% (odds ratio: 1.028, p = 0.0058) and 11.4% (OR: 1.114, p less than 0.0001) higher odds of loneliness and social isolation respectively .
This suggests to me that there's (at least) two components to social need: interacting with people and being around people. These have usually been a single activity, but as communication and physical proximity have split there comes the opportunity to adjust the amount of your interactions more precisely to your needs. It's all Samuel Morse's fault.
posted by rhizome at 1:58 PM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
This suggests to me that there's (at least) two components to social need: interacting with people and being around people. These have usually been a single activity, but as communication and physical proximity have split there comes the opportunity to adjust the amount of your interactions more precisely to your needs. It's all Samuel Morse's fault.
posted by rhizome at 1:58 PM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
I don't know how anyone who has used any machine prediction at all or read the lit could be excited about a future of machines guessing badly and with great prejudice — I mean, AI.
posted by dame at 2:25 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by dame at 2:25 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Ok so I feel that Kelly's article contains some pretty woolly thinking and more than a few questionable assertions. (70% of "Millennials" in a survey described themselves as optimistic??? In what year, 1998??). Hard agree with other posters on side-eyeing his blithe dismissal of gross global inequalities in the distribution of our supposed coming wave of prosperity and connectedness(???), which almost made me stop reading right there. I also find claims about how the youth will save us DEEPLY suspect--speaking from atop my Peak Millennial perch, I am sorry to inform the public at large that Gens Y and Z are also producing crazy assholes (and garden-variety self-centered fuckwits) at a pretty respectable clip.
However, where I do tend to agree with him is: that to have any chance whatsoever of surviving climate disaster--and that chance may be slim infuckingdeed--a guarded optimism may be the only outlook that will allow us to keep going long enough to carve out a solution.
I spent ages 25-29 literally driven to distraction by my own climate despair, and you know what, I just don't have the fucking energy anymore, I really don't. The last thing the ghouls who brought us to this pass can take from me is the capacity to derive some joy and purpose from this life, and I'm not fucking giving it to them. Does that make me a dupe? Who knows man?!
Who cares?! I don't know that I would describe my attitude as optimistic per se, but allowing myself the tiniest shred of hope 1-4 times per calendar year at least gives me enough juice in the tank to actually do meaningful shit in my life & career to contribute to trying to possibly salvage what can be salvaged. If grinding pessimism is where you're at, God knows you've got the right to feel that way and to stick with it. I mean look at the fucking state of things. But I no longer belive it's an obligation. The obligation is to keep on pushing, and each of us is entitled to whatever mindset will allow us to do that.
posted by TinyChicken at 2:31 PM on August 7, 2021 [16 favorites]
However, where I do tend to agree with him is: that to have any chance whatsoever of surviving climate disaster--and that chance may be slim infuckingdeed--a guarded optimism may be the only outlook that will allow us to keep going long enough to carve out a solution.
I spent ages 25-29 literally driven to distraction by my own climate despair, and you know what, I just don't have the fucking energy anymore, I really don't. The last thing the ghouls who brought us to this pass can take from me is the capacity to derive some joy and purpose from this life, and I'm not fucking giving it to them. Does that make me a dupe? Who knows man?!
Who cares?! I don't know that I would describe my attitude as optimistic per se, but allowing myself the tiniest shred of hope 1-4 times per calendar year at least gives me enough juice in the tank to actually do meaningful shit in my life & career to contribute to trying to possibly salvage what can be salvaged. If grinding pessimism is where you're at, God knows you've got the right to feel that way and to stick with it. I mean look at the fucking state of things. But I no longer belive it's an obligation. The obligation is to keep on pushing, and each of us is entitled to whatever mindset will allow us to do that.
posted by TinyChicken at 2:31 PM on August 7, 2021 [16 favorites]
I'm a complete doomer, because of climate change, which I think is at a scale that inevitably overwhelms even Kelly's list of trends under any scenario. I did find valuable, though, his list of personal stances to cultivate, especially pre-visualizing success, long-termism, ingenuity, and resilience.
Even if it's a doomed fight that I am pretty certain we'll lose, it seems more worthwhile to try to cultivate a sliver of hope/optimism to motivate my own activism, rather than wallow in hopelessness. In whatever few years I have left on this planet, I'd rather fight fight fight than mope mope mope. It's more challenging to summon that energy without at least a tiny bit of optimism that our efforts will bear fruit. It's hard to cultivate, but for my own mental health - and the tiny chance we might collectively succeed - I'm trying.
[on preview] What TinyChicken said. (jinx!)
posted by PhineasGage at 2:33 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Even if it's a doomed fight that I am pretty certain we'll lose, it seems more worthwhile to try to cultivate a sliver of hope/optimism to motivate my own activism, rather than wallow in hopelessness. In whatever few years I have left on this planet, I'd rather fight fight fight than mope mope mope. It's more challenging to summon that energy without at least a tiny bit of optimism that our efforts will bear fruit. It's hard to cultivate, but for my own mental health - and the tiny chance we might collectively succeed - I'm trying.
[on preview] What TinyChicken said. (jinx!)
posted by PhineasGage at 2:33 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Even though we might be doomed, I'd like to learn a bit more about the disaster that's going to do us all in, specifically climate change. Where exactly are you all getting consequences that are close to extinction or at least billions of dead from? I have heard many people talk like this is a foregone conclusion, but always in informal settings with no sources or citations. So before I fall into despair, I'd like to know where exactly this pessimism comes from. Can anyone help me with some actual, science based sources that back up the near-total doom case?
Because when I look at the IPCC report on climate change and land for instance, I see things like even temperature increases of 4.6°C to 5.4°C in 2100 only taking us to 50% of people living in high water stress areas up from 35% today, and most scenarios being predicted to eliminate malnourishment at least within 2100, perhaps 2050. A "high malnourishment" scenario is 600 million malnourished out of 13 billion in 2100, while today it is about 600 million out of 8 billion. And these are the most extreme, unlikely scenarios.
I realize that I have nowhere near a complete picture of the current state of the art in research on the impacts of climate change, so that's why I would like some pointers. What are you guys reading that I'm not reading?
posted by Spiegel at 2:44 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Because when I look at the IPCC report on climate change and land for instance, I see things like even temperature increases of 4.6°C to 5.4°C in 2100 only taking us to 50% of people living in high water stress areas up from 35% today, and most scenarios being predicted to eliminate malnourishment at least within 2100, perhaps 2050. A "high malnourishment" scenario is 600 million malnourished out of 13 billion in 2100, while today it is about 600 million out of 8 billion. And these are the most extreme, unlikely scenarios.
I realize that I have nowhere near a complete picture of the current state of the art in research on the impacts of climate change, so that's why I would like some pointers. What are you guys reading that I'm not reading?
posted by Spiegel at 2:44 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
I consider myself a critical optimist and I teach urban planning, and I bounced off this list hard.
Yes in general to cultivating the capacity to act (and much love to Mariame Kaba and how abolition requires a discipline of hope). There's a point in the semester where my urban planning students often hit a wall of rage (the history of urban development in the U.S. is chockful of discrimination, exploitation and violence) and we talk about how planning is a field for optimists, but we can't just trust in our own good intentions.
Hard no to promulgating big (tech) trends as causes for optimism. Technological innovation is not innocent. Predictive policing, ring cameras are tied into local police departments, e-carceration etc etc. And how about the dizzying dominance of Amazon and its effects on the environment? My students who live next to and work in the logistics industry have some air quality data they'd like to discuss with the author.
Cities can be more sustainable and North Americans who live in cities are using less energy than those who live in suburbs and exurbs. But this sustainability isn't inherent to cities, it's more because suburbs and auto-centric design is so damn terrible. I also remember when ride-hailing platforms like Uber touted their climate change impacts, but later studies showed that emissions often increased with market penetration.
posted by spamandkimchi at 2:45 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Yes in general to cultivating the capacity to act (and much love to Mariame Kaba and how abolition requires a discipline of hope). There's a point in the semester where my urban planning students often hit a wall of rage (the history of urban development in the U.S. is chockful of discrimination, exploitation and violence) and we talk about how planning is a field for optimists, but we can't just trust in our own good intentions.
Hard no to promulgating big (tech) trends as causes for optimism. Technological innovation is not innocent. Predictive policing, ring cameras are tied into local police departments, e-carceration etc etc. And how about the dizzying dominance of Amazon and its effects on the environment? My students who live next to and work in the logistics industry have some air quality data they'd like to discuss with the author.
Cities can be more sustainable and North Americans who live in cities are using less energy than those who live in suburbs and exurbs. But this sustainability isn't inherent to cities, it's more because suburbs and auto-centric design is so damn terrible. I also remember when ride-hailing platforms like Uber touted their climate change impacts, but later studies showed that emissions often increased with market penetration.
posted by spamandkimchi at 2:45 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Can anyone help me with some actual, science based sources that back up the near-total doom case?
Does it even need to be near-total doom? I mean look at how people responded to the inconveniences of the pandemic, with panic buying and open confrontation happening regularly. Okay, now, throw in the collapse of the insects, or even just the collapse of the pollinators. And then look at the draining of western US reservoirs and what that bodes for both human populations and farming. And then throw in the rain-based flooding in Europe and China this year let alone the numerous years of devastating wildfires on multiple continents and hemispheres.
Any and all of this is easy to google for science-based information about all of this happening, and how and why.
What do you think the not-total-doom scenario is going to be like? Are you picturing even more empty shelves in stores, or people taking up weapons against each other over water? Do you envision power utilities continuing to fail their customers because of laissez faire capitalism like we saw in Texas just months ago? Do you remember people filling up plastic bags with gasoline when the pipeline shut down?
Life is going to become very very difficult as resources become more scarce. And it won't be just no toilet paper at the store.
Even if we survive this as a species, even if we stopped all carbon based energy RIGHT NOW by waiving a magic wand, we're stuck with decades of warming built into the system, and the systems that have been in place for millennia won't survive and there will be no peace while new systems struggle to create new balance.
posted by hippybear at 3:06 PM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
Does it even need to be near-total doom? I mean look at how people responded to the inconveniences of the pandemic, with panic buying and open confrontation happening regularly. Okay, now, throw in the collapse of the insects, or even just the collapse of the pollinators. And then look at the draining of western US reservoirs and what that bodes for both human populations and farming. And then throw in the rain-based flooding in Europe and China this year let alone the numerous years of devastating wildfires on multiple continents and hemispheres.
Any and all of this is easy to google for science-based information about all of this happening, and how and why.
What do you think the not-total-doom scenario is going to be like? Are you picturing even more empty shelves in stores, or people taking up weapons against each other over water? Do you envision power utilities continuing to fail their customers because of laissez faire capitalism like we saw in Texas just months ago? Do you remember people filling up plastic bags with gasoline when the pipeline shut down?
Life is going to become very very difficult as resources become more scarce. And it won't be just no toilet paper at the store.
Even if we survive this as a species, even if we stopped all carbon based energy RIGHT NOW by waiving a magic wand, we're stuck with decades of warming built into the system, and the systems that have been in place for millennia won't survive and there will be no peace while new systems struggle to create new balance.
posted by hippybear at 3:06 PM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
I like his emphasis that optimism is something that can be learned. However, looking at the reasons he cites for optimism I can see adopting an optimistic approach does require a selective blindness. Just as the somebody skilled in meditation can learn to tune out distracting noise - so somebody can learn to look at a topic such as the future of AI and Robotics, be aware of all the manifold concerns that have been raised here and then filter through to get an optimistic picture. To be able to do that, it does indeed require a certain level of callousness, or naivety or foolishness to discard all the current risks, current mess, current warning signs. This is, indeed the sort of callousness that you can most easily get by being living a life of comfort and privilege. But it is still an admirable skill and attitude. Maybe being universally optimistic is too much of a stretch - but pick one or two areas and try to cultivate it. Choose to be the naive sunny, trusting, blinkered profit of a better future.
posted by rongorongo at 3:07 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 3:07 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
On preview: Looking at these comments, I'm seeing a major reason why I have largely bounced away from Metafilter in recent months.
Our problems are massive and real, and I also believe there's reason for hope. Lots of reason. But I don't engage much, because I feel like I'm only going to set people off with their contradictions, their anger, and their sense of existential dread--which, to be clear, I share.
Lately, in more than one of my social & online circles, I feel like when I say something positive or hopeful about climate change, America, whatever, even acknowledging the reality of the ugly stuff, people get angry.
If the article itself is bad but there are better reasons for hope, I'd love to hear those better reasons for hope instead of just "hey this article sucks because this dude is rich."
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:12 PM on August 7, 2021 [30 favorites]
Our problems are massive and real, and I also believe there's reason for hope. Lots of reason. But I don't engage much, because I feel like I'm only going to set people off with their contradictions, their anger, and their sense of existential dread--which, to be clear, I share.
Lately, in more than one of my social & online circles, I feel like when I say something positive or hopeful about climate change, America, whatever, even acknowledging the reality of the ugly stuff, people get angry.
If the article itself is bad but there are better reasons for hope, I'd love to hear those better reasons for hope instead of just "hey this article sucks because this dude is rich."
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:12 PM on August 7, 2021 [30 favorites]
Confusion is always next one way or another.
Another way to put it is to embrace uncertainty. I remember reading that people in general really dislike uncertainty, that it's like a vacuum that people find uncomfortable. It's possible that predictions based on optimism and even pessimism are just a way to not have to consider uncertainty.
For me, I'm also not really into going on about "humanity is doomed" for a couple of reasons. For one, I know it can be mentally exhausting and energy sapping to be around constant pessimism. And two, my ancestors probably went through much, much, much worse. None of this means I'm really an optimist either though.
I guess maybe I'm an "uncertaintist" if there is such a thing?
posted by FJT at 3:24 PM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
Another way to put it is to embrace uncertainty. I remember reading that people in general really dislike uncertainty, that it's like a vacuum that people find uncomfortable. It's possible that predictions based on optimism and even pessimism are just a way to not have to consider uncertainty.
For me, I'm also not really into going on about "humanity is doomed" for a couple of reasons. For one, I know it can be mentally exhausting and energy sapping to be around constant pessimism. And two, my ancestors probably went through much, much, much worse. None of this means I'm really an optimist either though.
I guess maybe I'm an "uncertaintist" if there is such a thing?
posted by FJT at 3:24 PM on August 7, 2021 [6 favorites]
Posting optimism to Metafilter is highly effective trolling, that's for sure.
posted by automatronic at 3:25 PM on August 7, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by automatronic at 3:25 PM on August 7, 2021 [8 favorites]
(70% of "Millennials" in a survey described themselves as optimistic??? In what year, 1998??)
To be honest, I would probably describe myself as optimistic, but what I mean by "optimism" is probably not what my parents mean by "optimism."
By "optimism," I mean my belief that opportunities still exist, and if I'm lucky I might find one - not that I will necessarily find one. By "optimism," I mean my belief that although I think 1billion+ climate-change related deaths are likely, I also think that there is a possibility that we will survive as a species. By "optimism," I mean that although I think a slide into fascism is inevitable in the US, I believe we might be able to find our way out of it before another genocide.
I mean that despite knowing the dire state of academia, I did a PhD anyway, and after leaving academia, deliberately focus on the things about the PhD that I liked rather than the exploitative or damaging parts. I mean that although I expect my final years will be horrible, I think I will probably be okay until I can't work anymore. I mean that when I wake up in the morning, I look at my cats and think about how I'm giving them a good life, and the little universes in their little minds are completely free of the knowledge of suffering.
Optimism or pessimism depends so much on your frame of reference. I think for a lot of younger people "optimism" is a coping mechanism to deal with the overall sense of doom.
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 3:41 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
To be honest, I would probably describe myself as optimistic, but what I mean by "optimism" is probably not what my parents mean by "optimism."
By "optimism," I mean my belief that opportunities still exist, and if I'm lucky I might find one - not that I will necessarily find one. By "optimism," I mean my belief that although I think 1billion+ climate-change related deaths are likely, I also think that there is a possibility that we will survive as a species. By "optimism," I mean that although I think a slide into fascism is inevitable in the US, I believe we might be able to find our way out of it before another genocide.
I mean that despite knowing the dire state of academia, I did a PhD anyway, and after leaving academia, deliberately focus on the things about the PhD that I liked rather than the exploitative or damaging parts. I mean that although I expect my final years will be horrible, I think I will probably be okay until I can't work anymore. I mean that when I wake up in the morning, I look at my cats and think about how I'm giving them a good life, and the little universes in their little minds are completely free of the knowledge of suffering.
Optimism or pessimism depends so much on your frame of reference. I think for a lot of younger people "optimism" is a coping mechanism to deal with the overall sense of doom.
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 3:41 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
I spent a few hours yesterday with 4 grandchildren, ages almost 12 to 2, and we had a lot of fun. We danced to loud music, we painted each other's faces, we walked to the playground. The youngest went down the big twisty tube slide with her older cousin a few times and finally did it herself. She was so excited that she could do it all by herself. Every time we go there she seems to learn some new skill. If nothing else, I have to be optimistic for them.
posted by mareli at 4:00 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by mareli at 4:00 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
If you are pessimistic, you're right and have every right to be.
If you are optimistic, you're right and have every right to be.
Because these are just feelings. Sure we base these feelings on current trends as far as we understand them but forecasters have demonstrated repeatedly how badly off their forecasts are even within a span of ten years. Important developments are completely missed.
Cases in point: rise of social media, Donald Trump, end of End of History...
Two mega-events that may or may not happen in the next twenty years: nuclear war and some kind of climate catastrophe. If either or both happen, the course of human history will be drastically altered. And if they don't....not so.
These debates about optimism vs pessimism is us projecting our emotional demeanors onto a fundamentally unknowable world.
posted by storybored at 4:54 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
If you are optimistic, you're right and have every right to be.
Because these are just feelings. Sure we base these feelings on current trends as far as we understand them but forecasters have demonstrated repeatedly how badly off their forecasts are even within a span of ten years. Important developments are completely missed.
Cases in point: rise of social media, Donald Trump, end of End of History...
Two mega-events that may or may not happen in the next twenty years: nuclear war and some kind of climate catastrophe. If either or both happen, the course of human history will be drastically altered. And if they don't....not so.
These debates about optimism vs pessimism is us projecting our emotional demeanors onto a fundamentally unknowable world.
posted by storybored at 4:54 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Our problems are massive and real, and I also believe there's reason for hope. Lots of reason.
posted by scaryblackdeath
Eponyronic?
posted by snofoam at 5:55 PM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by scaryblackdeath
Eponyronic?
posted by snofoam at 5:55 PM on August 7, 2021 [2 favorites]
[opens Metafilter, pulls out post labeled “Optimism Post, Do Not Read Comments”]
[opens thread]
I don’t know what I expected.
posted by snowmentality at 6:01 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
[opens thread]
I don’t know what I expected.
posted by snowmentality at 6:01 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Is your position that because of actions not taken 30 years ago, human civilization is completely doomed and will definitely die out?
For me, yes. That does not mean I am not an optimist! But certain things like climate change and the absolute certainty that humans will go extinct (at some point!) remain true.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:10 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
For me, yes. That does not mean I am not an optimist! But certain things like climate change and the absolute certainty that humans will go extinct (at some point!) remain true.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:10 PM on August 7, 2021 [1 favorite]
Oh hey, I experienced the Texas freeze. 38 continuous hours without power, in a place where most of us think 40 degrees is horrifically, noteworthy near panic levels of cold. My girlfriend and I were ok, in part because of how well the apartment holds heat, plus our sleeping bags. If it stretched out much longer, I would have had to get her to a shelter... She's not physically and medically capable of withstanding cold for long. She's on oxygen now, and another freeze/power loss could be problematic. People did die.
Fortunately for my city, the hurricanes have largely been devastating Louisiana, not us. We haven't even had a flood that shut down the city for more than a day or two recently. In Texas terms.
But what do we do when the West coast is entirely on fire, the Gulf coast is flooded, and the heartland is ravaged by plague? East coast can have blizzards or something. Water and power wars. I've been to the ER recently, there weren't enough isolation rooms. Covid patients were sitting in the waiting room for multiple hours. I think there's going to be cascading, multiple emergencies, where we can handle any two at a time, but three+ starts becoming a catastrophe. I think the dominos are falling, faster and faster, knocking over our house of cards. I think we are murdering the environment, knocking out multiple support systems of vital plants and animals, reefs, species diversity, habitats, pollinators. I think we are going to start tripping over more and more buried land mines... Currents and sequestered carbon and viruses and other multipliers of chaos. I think we're F'ed, honestly. I don't see mankind having the willpower to stop it. I think we are going to cling to fascism for the least flexible people to 'protect their lifestyle.' I think we needed ecological fascism two decades ago, or even right now. I don't think we're going to get it. I don't think we're going to get a miracle. I think humans are going to continue on our way, clawing profit at the cost of the future. I don't think there will be a future, not for most of us. Maybe not humanity as a whole.
posted by Jacen at 7:16 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
Fortunately for my city, the hurricanes have largely been devastating Louisiana, not us. We haven't even had a flood that shut down the city for more than a day or two recently. In Texas terms.
But what do we do when the West coast is entirely on fire, the Gulf coast is flooded, and the heartland is ravaged by plague? East coast can have blizzards or something. Water and power wars. I've been to the ER recently, there weren't enough isolation rooms. Covid patients were sitting in the waiting room for multiple hours. I think there's going to be cascading, multiple emergencies, where we can handle any two at a time, but three+ starts becoming a catastrophe. I think the dominos are falling, faster and faster, knocking over our house of cards. I think we are murdering the environment, knocking out multiple support systems of vital plants and animals, reefs, species diversity, habitats, pollinators. I think we are going to start tripping over more and more buried land mines... Currents and sequestered carbon and viruses and other multipliers of chaos. I think we're F'ed, honestly. I don't see mankind having the willpower to stop it. I think we are going to cling to fascism for the least flexible people to 'protect their lifestyle.' I think we needed ecological fascism two decades ago, or even right now. I don't think we're going to get it. I don't think we're going to get a miracle. I think humans are going to continue on our way, clawing profit at the cost of the future. I don't think there will be a future, not for most of us. Maybe not humanity as a whole.
posted by Jacen at 7:16 PM on August 7, 2021 [7 favorites]
I saw a twitter post on Imgur that hit home:
"Kinda weird that we’re all gonna experience climate change as a series of short, apocalyptic videos until eventually it’s your phone that’s recording"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:07 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
"Kinda weird that we’re all gonna experience climate change as a series of short, apocalyptic videos until eventually it’s your phone that’s recording"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:07 PM on August 7, 2021 [9 favorites]
Someone on NPR recently said "instead of saying that 2019 was the hottest year on record, you need to realize that it was probably the coolest year of the rest of your life".
posted by hippybear at 9:24 PM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 9:24 PM on August 7, 2021 [4 favorites]
I realize that I have nowhere near a complete picture of the current state of the art in research on the impacts of climate change, so that's why I would like some pointers. What are you guys reading that I'm not reading?
A friend recommended David Archer's stuff, and while I haven't made my way through his entire ouerve what I have read cleared a lot up for me. I also find the posts and discussion at RealClimate to be consistently interesting, although there is some ongoing feuding/crankery going on among the regulars there.
The more apocalyptic scenarios tend to have thinner scientific support because the science tends to stick with what can be gotten past peer review, and there aren't a lot of other warming events of this kind or magnitude in the planet's history. And the heat itself isn't the entire problem. The world has been a lot hotter than anthropogenic human warming is ever going to take us, but the rapidity of the present change is also dangerous - lots of species, including some that we depend heavily on for food, aren't going to be able to adjust. There's no way to predict exactly how bad it will be and for whom, especially when you might get resource wars springing up in response to this, etc.
Apocalypse sells better, though, and so you see more of the less-likely but uglier outcomes appear in books targeted to a wider lay audience. Pessimism is often mistaken for realism when it paints a darker picture than genuine attention to the facts would allow.
posted by AdamCSnider at 10:52 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
A friend recommended David Archer's stuff, and while I haven't made my way through his entire ouerve what I have read cleared a lot up for me. I also find the posts and discussion at RealClimate to be consistently interesting, although there is some ongoing feuding/crankery going on among the regulars there.
The more apocalyptic scenarios tend to have thinner scientific support because the science tends to stick with what can be gotten past peer review, and there aren't a lot of other warming events of this kind or magnitude in the planet's history. And the heat itself isn't the entire problem. The world has been a lot hotter than anthropogenic human warming is ever going to take us, but the rapidity of the present change is also dangerous - lots of species, including some that we depend heavily on for food, aren't going to be able to adjust. There's no way to predict exactly how bad it will be and for whom, especially when you might get resource wars springing up in response to this, etc.
Apocalypse sells better, though, and so you see more of the less-likely but uglier outcomes appear in books targeted to a wider lay audience. Pessimism is often mistaken for realism when it paints a darker picture than genuine attention to the facts would allow.
posted by AdamCSnider at 10:52 PM on August 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
An interesting, counterintuitive take on optimism from a former Vietnam POW, Vice Admiral James Stockdale.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:04 PM on August 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 2:04 PM on August 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
I enjoyed that article, PhineasGage.
posted by aniola at 10:00 PM on August 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by aniola at 10:00 PM on August 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
"You can acknowledge and work towards alleviating problems while still having hope for the future. No one has to be an optimist, but acting like optimism is somehow willfully naive is tiresome.
Hope is a discipline." Article was enjoyed, second favorite statement in thread.
It can feel exhausting or like no one hears you, while you're acting out of hope or* optimism, or feeling vulnerable for being kind, when kindness is also a discipline.
posted by firstdaffodils at 10:08 PM on August 8, 2021
Hope is a discipline." Article was enjoyed, second favorite statement in thread.
It can feel exhausting or like no one hears you, while you're acting out of hope or* optimism, or feeling vulnerable for being kind, when kindness is also a discipline.
posted by firstdaffodils at 10:08 PM on August 8, 2021
Another good point of reference on this front is Hans Rosling. He had a number of tools for demonstrating that a) news has a bias towards reporting the grim, b) that on a wide array of metrics, people's lives get better with economic development in very structured, repeatable ways, and c=a+b) that people tend not to be aware of the ways in which things have gotten better.
Around the time I first encountered Rosling's work, the notion of poverty traps was making the rounds. In short, once you're in an impovershed state, you're forced into making certain 'bad' decisions for the sake of day to day survival, which undercut long-term improvement. A classic example is a teenager going into low-wage work to support that family instead of pursuing further education. Up to some unknown sub-Bezos point, economic development gives people more choices, which they tend to allocate well towards improving their own lives and the lives of their children. (All of the GiveDirectly studies tend to support this line of thought.)
Which is to say; when people have fairly concrete problems and the means to solve them, the problems on average get solved.
I think what we see with climate change is basically a poverty trap. We have short term optimization for political/economic survival keeping us from accomplishing really necessary goals for our long term well-being. The solutions are fairly obvious - get off fossil fuels, plant a lot more trees - but the costs are apparently too high at a societal level to execute on.
But Rosling tells us that even when things are getting better, we'll tend to miss the good news... And there has, in fact, been a lot of progress over the last ten years. And I'd say there's certainly a rising sense of alarm to push solutions forward faster.
I appreciate the perspective here that we need some modicum of optimism to even begin to work towards a better future. If we 'know' there's a correct answer at the back of the book, the answer is much easier to come up with. And, given access to solutions and the means to execute them, we know that people will generally choose a better future for themselves and their children.
posted by kaibutsu at 5:15 PM on August 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
Around the time I first encountered Rosling's work, the notion of poverty traps was making the rounds. In short, once you're in an impovershed state, you're forced into making certain 'bad' decisions for the sake of day to day survival, which undercut long-term improvement. A classic example is a teenager going into low-wage work to support that family instead of pursuing further education. Up to some unknown sub-Bezos point, economic development gives people more choices, which they tend to allocate well towards improving their own lives and the lives of their children. (All of the GiveDirectly studies tend to support this line of thought.)
Which is to say; when people have fairly concrete problems and the means to solve them, the problems on average get solved.
I think what we see with climate change is basically a poverty trap. We have short term optimization for political/economic survival keeping us from accomplishing really necessary goals for our long term well-being. The solutions are fairly obvious - get off fossil fuels, plant a lot more trees - but the costs are apparently too high at a societal level to execute on.
But Rosling tells us that even when things are getting better, we'll tend to miss the good news... And there has, in fact, been a lot of progress over the last ten years. And I'd say there's certainly a rising sense of alarm to push solutions forward faster.
I appreciate the perspective here that we need some modicum of optimism to even begin to work towards a better future. If we 'know' there's a correct answer at the back of the book, the answer is much easier to come up with. And, given access to solutions and the means to execute them, we know that people will generally choose a better future for themselves and their children.
posted by kaibutsu at 5:15 PM on August 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
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I guess this guy has never used or even heard of the internet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:52 AM on August 7, 2021 [73 favorites]