In Los Angeles, Breakthrough Infections Are Now 30% Of All New Cases
August 20, 2021 1:21 PM   Subscribe

This post was deleted for the following reason: This article seems really thin and clickbaity; this is totally something worth discussing, but I think we can do better for an underlying article. -- Eyebrows McGee



 
Thanks, Republicans! You'll show us! We'll all get it and then we'll be sorry for voting for Obama.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:25 PM on August 20, 2021 [2 favorites]


The good news is that the overall number of cases per day has plateaued.
posted by Galvanic at 1:30 PM on August 20, 2021 [1 favorite]


What the hell is this source?
posted by matkline at 1:31 PM on August 20, 2021 [2 favorites]


What are the overall vaccination rates in the population this stat is drawn from? Maybe I skimmed too quickly, but I didn’t see that in the article.
posted by eviemath at 1:32 PM on August 20, 2021 [3 favorites]


I bet 90% of them were right-handed as well.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 1:32 PM on August 20, 2021 [11 favorites]


At least some of this rise is due to more people being vaccinated now. (It's hard to say how much - I can't find the numbers I need.)
posted by madcaptenor at 1:32 PM on August 20, 2021 [2 favorites]


It mentions declining vaccine effectiveness in Israel, which another FPP demonstrates is a false idea because of Simpson's Paradox.
posted by matkline at 1:33 PM on August 20, 2021 [3 favorites]


Fully-vaccinated people represented only 5% of L.A.’s hospitalized Covid patients in April. By July, that number had risen to 13%. Overall, however, the percentages of vaccinated people who test positive, are hospitalized or die from Covid remain low — all less than 1%. Of the nearly 5.15 million fully-vaccinated county residents as of Tuesday, 27,331 have tested positive. That’s a rate of 0.53%. Only 742 were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.014%. Only 68 have died, which makes for a rate of 0.0013%.

So get vaccinated, doubters!
posted by Bee'sWing at 1:34 PM on August 20, 2021 [7 favorites]


I just heard from this guy how the new CDC research (based on NY, n=10m) has the breakthrough rate at around 80% down from 90%.

Also mentioned in that video is how it seems they know that time lapse affects vaccine effectiveness and that boosters will be key to maintaining effectiveness. But I thought there was guidance earlier that the vaccine doesn't actually 'wear off'?

This seems like an acute moment in the pandemic and it seems like the data needed to provide policy direction and the messaging from CDC is still much too muddled for my comfort level.

Does the vaccine effectiveness decline over time?
Are boosters the solution?
Would boosters help restore protection from transmission of Delta (not just reduce severity of cases)?

Especially for people with kids/at risk, this is critical stuff we should know by now.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 1:34 PM on August 20, 2021


This feels a lot like bad statistics being used to fuel clickbait.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:36 PM on August 20, 2021 [12 favorites]


This article, along with so much of the news coverage of Covid, has made me realize again and again how poor my initial grasp of a given statistic is, and how much it helps to get a fuller picture.

From a little further down in the article:
Fully-vaccinated people represented only 5% of L.A.’s hospitalized Covid patients in April. By July, that number had risen to 13%. Overall, however, the percentages of vaccinated people who test positive, are hospitalized or die from Covid remain low — all less than 1%. Of the nearly 5.15 million fully-vaccinated county residents as of Tuesday, 27,331 have tested positive. That’s a rate of 0.53%. Only 742 were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.014%. Only 68 have died, which makes for a rate of 0.0013%.
I wish we had contrasting pairs of numbers for ALL statistics in all articles, especially when reporting actual data (although paired numbers for predictions would be great, too, if we got some good statisticians on it) - something like:
                              vaccinated              unvaccinated
individuals                    5,150,000                 ?      ?%
tested positive                   27,331     0.53%       ?      ?%
hospitalized                         742     0.014%      ?      ?%
died                                  68     0.0013%     ?      ?%
That would definitely help me make better sense of all these numbers.
posted by kristi at 1:36 PM on August 20, 2021 [11 favorites]


Yeah, I precisely don't like reporting on the % of cases being vaccinated or not. As vaccination rates increase, the % of breakthrough cases is going to increase since they become the majority of the population. This is a feedback loop which convinces people that vaccinations don't work; even though the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths go way down.
posted by meowzilla at 1:37 PM on August 20, 2021 [9 favorites]


Relevant past MeFi thread?
posted by synecdoche at 1:42 PM on August 20, 2021 [2 favorites]


If 100% of people were vaccinated, then 100% of cases and 100% of deaths would be of vaccinated people.

Clearly the vaccine doesn't work at all!

This is some Joe Rogan-esque logic right here.
posted by Scattercat at 1:43 PM on August 20, 2021 [12 favorites]


Fully-vaccinated people represented only 5% of L.A.’s hospitalized Covid patients in April. By July, that number had risen to 13%.

Angelenos fully vaccinated April 30: 30.2%
Angelenos fully vaccinated July 31: 52.8%
posted by Mike Smith at 1:44 PM on August 20, 2021 [6 favorites]


Sorry about my going off at the top.

I just read the Root article about the spread of infection in Red states, and am just horribly frustrated that this is happening at all when the fix is so damn simple. But Donnie didn't wear a mask, so it's a liberal thing to get vaccinated.

I'm just so fucking tired of the stupidity in this country. It's been dogging me my entire life.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:47 PM on August 20, 2021 [1 favorite]


I remember when we were hopefully the COVID vaccines would match the effectiveness of vaccines we use for the seasonal flu. It seems our standards have risen to match the (still high) efficacy of the vaccines, particularly against hospitalization, death, and serious disease, which was the primary aim of the vaccines to begin with. Anyway, this article falls prey to the Base Rate Fallacy.
posted by eagles123 at 1:50 PM on August 20, 2021 [3 favorites]


I bet 90% of them were right-handed as well.

I have read that most people who die in car accidents were wearing seat belts. Really makes ya think.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 1:52 PM on August 20, 2021 [6 favorites]


Pull quote is some base-rate fallacy nonsense. Read further.

Overall, however, the percentages of vaccinated people who test positive, are hospitalized or die from Covid remain low — all less than 1%. Of the nearly 5.15 million fully-vaccinated county residents as of Tuesday, 27,331 have tested positive. That’s a rate of 0.53%. Only 742 were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.014%. Only 68 have died, which makes for a rate of 0.0013%.
posted by Lutoslawski at 1:53 PM on August 20, 2021 [3 favorites]




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