Hurricane Ida
August 28, 2021 5:25 PM Subscribe
Hurricane Ida is set to be a major hurricane and track very near to New Orleans at midday Sunday on the anniversary of Katrina.
After passing over warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it is set to pass over a hot eddy and, perhaps, undergo rapid intensification.
After Katrina, New Orleans made many upgrades in hurricane preparedness. Key infrastructure will be challenged.
Dr. Levi Cowan makes wonderfully lucid videos explaining upcoming hurricanes and weather events.
The Yale Climate Connections' Eye on the Storm with Jeff Masters and Bob Henson create great summaries and have a legion of smart posters in their discussion space.
After passing over warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it is set to pass over a hot eddy and, perhaps, undergo rapid intensification.
After Katrina, New Orleans made many upgrades in hurricane preparedness. Key infrastructure will be challenged.
Dr. Levi Cowan makes wonderfully lucid videos explaining upcoming hurricanes and weather events.
The Yale Climate Connections' Eye on the Storm with Jeff Masters and Bob Henson create great summaries and have a legion of smart posters in their discussion space.
Night_owl's opened a check-in post in MetaTalk for "Gulf-area Mefites or any who are/will be affected by Hurricane Ida."
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:32 PM on August 28, 2021 [13 favorites]
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:32 PM on August 28, 2021 [13 favorites]
"I'm gonna preemptively remind those of y’all who have never lived in a hurricane zone that the reason people don’t evacuate isn’t because they think they’ll be fine; it’s because they don’t have money to evacuate." @oldenoughtosay from Twitter
posted by rikschell at 5:38 PM on August 28, 2021 [90 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 5:38 PM on August 28, 2021 [90 favorites]
Here's a view of traffic in and around the area, for those curious.
Please be safe.
posted by suckerpunch at 6:13 PM on August 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
Please be safe.
posted by suckerpunch at 6:13 PM on August 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
I read a comment on tiktok pointing out that on top of everything else, this is coming right at the end of the month when the most vulnerable are likely out of money, adding another layer of difficulty to evacuating or even to preparing for sheltering in place.
posted by DSime at 6:15 PM on August 28, 2021 [28 favorites]
posted by DSime at 6:15 PM on August 28, 2021 [28 favorites]
A good friend who lives within the NOLA levee system was planning on staying put when we talked on Friday. He packed the family into the car and are heading North as of this afternoon.
posted by gwint at 6:34 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by gwint at 6:34 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
I'm remembering watching traffic cams the evening before Katrina hit, all those empty roads and yet so many still in harms way.
posted by joeyh at 6:41 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by joeyh at 6:41 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
The NWS New Orleans statement from 6PM is strong. It's not the now-famous Katrina statement, but it's strong.
...These are the last fewposted by suckerpunch at 6:48 PM on August 28, 2021 [31 favorites]
hours to prepare or leave. Conditions are expected to deteriorate
late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Once sustained
tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down
and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the
possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for
some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be
without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain
caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this
level and if it doesn`t happen then we should all count our
blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1
in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE; 2 are in a very
flood prone area, LEAVE, 3 are uncomfortable and have trees around
your house, LEAVE. Do not play around and say "I`ve been through
Andrew/Camille/Katrina/Betsy" all storms are different.
Have had family and friends in NOLA and Lafayette and their fam/friends spread all across the Acadiana / Atchafalaya basin for decades - thought this a.m. I'd be lyin' if I said I didn't wonder how they do this shit year after year anymore - last year alone was just too much stress.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:09 PM on August 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:09 PM on August 28, 2021 [3 favorites]
My Mama's in Ponchatoula. I'm not too worried about her getting flooded, but I'm concerned about power outages and other infrastructure issues. I wish she'd gone to my brother's in north Texas.
posted by wintermind at 7:13 PM on August 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by wintermind at 7:13 PM on August 28, 2021 [4 favorites]
One of the reasons this storm has accelerated so quickly is that water temperatures are 8 degrees above normal, and it's not just at the surface, but deeper water, too, which is what feeds energy to the hurricane.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:27 PM on August 28, 2021 [38 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:27 PM on August 28, 2021 [38 favorites]
It was a 1 Friday morning, then it was called a Cat 4 Friday afternoon, it accelerated more quickly than ever due to the hot hot Gulf. That threw people off if they weren't reading the NHC directly
Friday noon, it was an "aw man", and Friday at 430 it was an 'oh shit.' I really hope people wereable to move their boats inside the central wetlands.
Terrebonne will be rocked. the small Morganza to the Gulf levee will be overwhelmed and likely breached, as it breached in Barry The LaRose to Golden Meadow system, also scary.
westbank plaquemines will be overwhelmed, but their levee is in the middle of being built.
We are going to see if that Sand Core levee in St Bernard Parish holds.
Westbank Jefferson, not looking good either, but the system is designed to be overtopped, and not breach. So, we will see if that's true, if the post Katrina design standards hold.
Isle de Jean Charles will be in a bad way. Westbank Plaquemines, and the Atakapas-Ishak people are going to be hit badly. This storm is dead eye on the native American coastal peoples of Louisiana, who have already been petitioning the UN on US environmental racism, and lack of action on climate change. What does the US so? Propose 5 new oil or LNG pipelines right on top of them.
So hey, United States, how about a deal. How about you STOP putting your petrochemical infrastructure on us? It 'S terrible for everyone involved. We ve been trying to tell you about this thing, climate change. It means your dumb pipelines aren't going to work if you put them here, so please stop.
It just seems like you are trying to store your oil here so you can collect on the insurance. But your stranded assets are our hellscape.
Tell DC, No more LNG plants anywhere where a levee gets overtopped this time. Deal?
posted by eustatic at 7:58 PM on August 28, 2021 [71 favorites]
Friday noon, it was an "aw man", and Friday at 430 it was an 'oh shit.' I really hope people wereable to move their boats inside the central wetlands.
Terrebonne will be rocked. the small Morganza to the Gulf levee will be overwhelmed and likely breached, as it breached in Barry The LaRose to Golden Meadow system, also scary.
westbank plaquemines will be overwhelmed, but their levee is in the middle of being built.
We are going to see if that Sand Core levee in St Bernard Parish holds.
Westbank Jefferson, not looking good either, but the system is designed to be overtopped, and not breach. So, we will see if that's true, if the post Katrina design standards hold.
Isle de Jean Charles will be in a bad way. Westbank Plaquemines, and the Atakapas-Ishak people are going to be hit badly. This storm is dead eye on the native American coastal peoples of Louisiana, who have already been petitioning the UN on US environmental racism, and lack of action on climate change. What does the US so? Propose 5 new oil or LNG pipelines right on top of them.
So hey, United States, how about a deal. How about you STOP putting your petrochemical infrastructure on us? It 'S terrible for everyone involved. We ve been trying to tell you about this thing, climate change. It means your dumb pipelines aren't going to work if you put them here, so please stop.
It just seems like you are trying to store your oil here so you can collect on the insurance. But your stranded assets are our hellscape.
Tell DC, No more LNG plants anywhere where a levee gets overtopped this time. Deal?
posted by eustatic at 7:58 PM on August 28, 2021 [71 favorites]
Sending hope and solidarity to those in the path. Will keep my ear open for how to support.
posted by latkes at 8:05 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by latkes at 8:05 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
I had not read a NWS hurricane warning before. They are not vague
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 8:18 PM on August 28, 2021 [23 favorites]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 8:18 PM on August 28, 2021 [23 favorites]
LUMCON livestream, the DeFelice science fortress out in Cocodrie
Cera.coastalrisk.live storm surge projections, akin to NHC
posted by eustatic at 8:54 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
Cera.coastalrisk.live storm surge projections, akin to NHC
posted by eustatic at 8:54 PM on August 28, 2021 [1 favorite]
I read a comment on tiktok pointing out that on top of everything else, this is coming right at the end of the month when the most vulnerable are likely out of money, adding another layer of difficulty to evacuating or even to preparing for sheltering in place.
I remember reading the same comments during Katrina. We've learned nothing.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:20 PM on August 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
I remember reading the same comments during Katrina. We've learned nothing.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:20 PM on August 28, 2021 [8 favorites]
The NWS New Orleans statement from 6PM is strong. It's not the now-famous Katrina statement, but it's strong.
I remember listening to news reports in my car the morning after Katrina hit. It was long drive. I don't remember where I driving. The first report said they thought New Orleans dodged a bullet and that the storm wasn't as bad as expected. About an hour later reports came on about levees failing and water rising in the Lower 9th Ward. Then reports started coming in about catastrophic damage along the Mississippi coast. I'll never forget the areal pictures of a flooded New Orleans next morning.
On Wednesday this thing was still an area of storms in west Caribbean. The global models had been showing a storm in the gulf for about a week, but it didn't become clear a hurricane would form and head towards Louisiana until about Thursday. Nature really didn't us much of a lead time with this one.
Since then the models have been very good in terms of track and intensity. Unfortunately, the storm hugged the eastern end of guidance, which is a shift of only a few miles, but that shift makes a terrible difference for the New Orleans metro area. It doesn't help that hospital systems and our disaster response forces are already busy responding to the pandemic and now what's going on in Afghanistan. Thoughts and prayers to everyone about to affected by this.
posted by eagles123 at 9:28 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
I remember listening to news reports in my car the morning after Katrina hit. It was long drive. I don't remember where I driving. The first report said they thought New Orleans dodged a bullet and that the storm wasn't as bad as expected. About an hour later reports came on about levees failing and water rising in the Lower 9th Ward. Then reports started coming in about catastrophic damage along the Mississippi coast. I'll never forget the areal pictures of a flooded New Orleans next morning.
On Wednesday this thing was still an area of storms in west Caribbean. The global models had been showing a storm in the gulf for about a week, but it didn't become clear a hurricane would form and head towards Louisiana until about Thursday. Nature really didn't us much of a lead time with this one.
Since then the models have been very good in terms of track and intensity. Unfortunately, the storm hugged the eastern end of guidance, which is a shift of only a few miles, but that shift makes a terrible difference for the New Orleans metro area. It doesn't help that hospital systems and our disaster response forces are already busy responding to the pandemic and now what's going on in Afghanistan. Thoughts and prayers to everyone about to affected by this.
posted by eagles123 at 9:28 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
By happenstance I was listening to this (which is about Chicago's long forgotten heat wave in '94 and EU heat wave in 2000's and Katrina and Sanday and...).
It's pretty well balanced (politically, emotionally, strategically) look at where we're entering into.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 10:15 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
It's pretty well balanced (politically, emotionally, strategically) look at where we're entering into.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 10:15 PM on August 28, 2021 [5 favorites]
6AM check. Storm track is now a tick west. IR presentation is not good at all - well-organized, closed and circular eye. Data from hurricane hunter flights are worse. Per Dr. Cowan, 935mb and max winds aloft at 150mph. The forecast for rapid intensification held.
Woke up a bit early today, but in my own bed in St. Louis. 16 years ago today I woke up after sleeping on a concrete bench in a stadium in Jackson, MS., which was hastily converted into a shelter for evacuees. I think, right now, I'll probably go for a drive, get some coffee maybe. Back then, I did the same, and then I drove through outer rain bands and looped around the storm to end up at the Blue Moon in Lafayette.
Please be safe.
posted by suckerpunch at 4:31 AM on August 29, 2021 [22 favorites]
Woke up a bit early today, but in my own bed in St. Louis. 16 years ago today I woke up after sleeping on a concrete bench in a stadium in Jackson, MS., which was hastily converted into a shelter for evacuees. I think, right now, I'll probably go for a drive, get some coffee maybe. Back then, I did the same, and then I drove through outer rain bands and looped around the storm to end up at the Blue Moon in Lafayette.
Please be safe.
posted by suckerpunch at 4:31 AM on August 29, 2021 [22 favorites]
Since last night, the storm has rapidly intensified and now has maximum sustained winds of 150mph. Pressure continues to drop, so there is a good chance it will get to category 5 in the 5-6 hours remaining until landfall. We can only hope that as it shortly moves into shallower waters the pace of intensification slows or maybe even stops
With 15+ inches of rain forecast over a very wide area, that may not matter so much to the overall damage, but at least the water should come up more slowly and be less likely to completely wash away houses.
posted by wierdo at 4:32 AM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
With 15+ inches of rain forecast over a very wide area, that may not matter so much to the overall damage, but at least the water should come up more slowly and be less likely to completely wash away houses.
posted by wierdo at 4:32 AM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
Live cams currently up:
Bourbon St.
NOLA Skyline (KHOU)
Storm chaser
Intersection of Patriot Ave and Barataria Blvd
Multiple views
Biloxi coast
posted by gwint at 5:59 AM on August 29, 2021 [6 favorites]
Bourbon St.
NOLA Skyline (KHOU)
Storm chaser
Intersection of Patriot Ave and Barataria Blvd
Multiple views
Biloxi coast
posted by gwint at 5:59 AM on August 29, 2021 [6 favorites]
A major hurricane coupled with a raging pandemic has been one of my biggest fears these past 18 months. “Praying “ doesn’t begin to touch the feeling of immense concern I have for everyone who will be affected by this thing.
Are there Louisiana-local charities other than the Red Cross that anyone can recommend?
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:25 AM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
Are there Louisiana-local charities other than the Red Cross that anyone can recommend?
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:25 AM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
Well, the surge is focused on many tribal areas. Our indigenous folks in Louisiana have never been given federal recognition, due to the oil resources of our area (see "Istrouma" by T Mayheart Dardar). I don't think the Atakapas-Ishak in Plaquemines Parish have an online presence
So, I do not know of any tribal calls for assistance, but, i would ask that you please keep them at the forefront of your mind
United Houma Nation page
https://unitedhoumanation.org/about/government/
POINTE-AU-CHIEN INDIAN TRIBE page
https://pactribe.tripod.com/
Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, Isle de Jean Charles band
http://www.isledejeancharles.com/our-resettlement
Mutual Aid New Orleans, moderated by Imagine Water Works, is a local resource
https://www.facebook.com/groups/MutualAidNewOrleans
Foundation for Louisiana is a good Black-led foundation, and has been very active at the state level on matters of "resilience" and climate justice
https://www.foundationforlouisiana.org/
(full disclosure, i did receive a grant from them some years ago)
posted by eustatic at 6:45 AM on August 29, 2021 [44 favorites]
So, I do not know of any tribal calls for assistance, but, i would ask that you please keep them at the forefront of your mind
United Houma Nation page
https://unitedhoumanation.org/about/government/
POINTE-AU-CHIEN INDIAN TRIBE page
https://pactribe.tripod.com/
Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, Isle de Jean Charles band
http://www.isledejeancharles.com/our-resettlement
Mutual Aid New Orleans, moderated by Imagine Water Works, is a local resource
https://www.facebook.com/groups/MutualAidNewOrleans
Foundation for Louisiana is a good Black-led foundation, and has been very active at the state level on matters of "resilience" and climate justice
https://www.foundationforlouisiana.org/
(full disclosure, i did receive a grant from them some years ago)
posted by eustatic at 6:45 AM on August 29, 2021 [44 favorites]
The Cajun Navy is good, as well.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:49 AM on August 29, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:49 AM on August 29, 2021 [8 favorites]
Thank you for the additional information about the area and people most likely to be affected and for the recommendations.
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:58 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:58 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
This will be the strongest hurricane to touch down in Louisiana, records going back to 1850s. It could be the first category 5 at landfall.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:05 AM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:05 AM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
Live cam from Grand Isle that's still working at this point, both incredible and terrifying: here.
posted by warble at 9:20 AM on August 29, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by warble at 9:20 AM on August 29, 2021 [10 favorites]
That is beyond terrifying - looks almost like an undersea cam.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:56 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:56 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
Feed is starting to cut in and out, but I'm amazed that camera still seems to be working at this point. I've never seen anything like it.
...and, just as I was typing this, it appears to have finally died.
posted by warble at 10:06 AM on August 29, 2021
...and, just as I was typing this, it appears to have finally died.
posted by warble at 10:06 AM on August 29, 2021
Just watching warbles cam link over an hour before it died had an absolutely insane intensification of the waves. Poor Louisiana. They've gotten the worst of a lot of recent hurricane seasons. And as a coastal Texan, between the scorching heat, murderous freeze, and the fact that we're likely to get another hurricane or flood very soon, it's probably time to think about moving.
We're in the first wave of deaths and massive upheaval from climate change, the scientific community is sounding ultra urgent red alarms, and the entrenched powers are barely doing anything about it. Sigh.
posted by Jacen at 10:15 AM on August 29, 2021 [8 favorites]
We're in the first wave of deaths and massive upheaval from climate change, the scientific community is sounding ultra urgent red alarms, and the entrenched powers are barely doing anything about it. Sigh.
posted by Jacen at 10:15 AM on August 29, 2021 [8 favorites]
Lived in New Orleans from 2008-2013. Evacuated for one hurricane and rode out another in the Marigny during which we lost power for a few days. Seems like about 1/3 of my friends stayed behind for this one. This is terrifying and I really hope everyone pulls through.
This article on the current state of the levee system was very useful.
posted by mostly vowels at 10:26 AM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
This article on the current state of the levee system was very useful.
posted by mostly vowels at 10:26 AM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
Is there a view somewhere of what the grand isle cam normally looks like? It's so chaotic it's impossible to know what we're looking at other than "bad".
posted by maxwelton at 10:53 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by maxwelton at 10:53 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
It's on gmaps street view.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
Is there a view somewhere of what the grand isle cam normally looks like? It's so chaotic it's impossible to know what we're looking at other than "bad".
Here's a view at 9:08am, 10:45am, 11:22am, and 11:42am
posted by gwint at 11:25 AM on August 29, 2021 [12 favorites]
I'm pretty sure it's 1925 LA-1, Grand Isle, LA, at the intersection of LA-1 and Tahiti E Ln.
It's... just houses on the beach. At least it should be. But if you told me that cam was the wake of a speedboat, I'd believe you.
posted by Imperfect at 11:28 AM on August 29, 2021
It's... just houses on the beach. At least it should be. But if you told me that cam was the wake of a speedboat, I'd believe you.
posted by Imperfect at 11:28 AM on August 29, 2021
Stormchasers who’ve been driving around the area, have now reached a water front…somewhere.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:57 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:57 AM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
Ida went from "near miss" to "brace yourselves" to "bend over" remarkably quickly.
Today's blessings so far:
a. Still have power
b. Still have home internet
c. Recovered my metafilter account
d. Moved to a part of NOLA that is above sea level.
Have plenty of water, food, etc but according to the livestream https://wgno.com/tracking-ida/non-stop-coverage-of-hurricane-ida/ the nola metro area hasn't really been hit yet - we're going to have heavy wind and rain through 2am.
North shore is going to be hit fairly hard tho, they normally don't get as much weather as south shore and they have a lot of pine trees.
The eye is basically a very large F2 tornado at this point. It's not going to lessen for a while because "landfall" is a technical term in that part of the coast due to costal erosion.
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 12:02 PM on August 29, 2021 [16 favorites]
Today's blessings so far:
a. Still have power
b. Still have home internet
c. Recovered my metafilter account
d. Moved to a part of NOLA that is above sea level.
Have plenty of water, food, etc but according to the livestream https://wgno.com/tracking-ida/non-stop-coverage-of-hurricane-ida/ the nola metro area hasn't really been hit yet - we're going to have heavy wind and rain through 2am.
North shore is going to be hit fairly hard tho, they normally don't get as much weather as south shore and they have a lot of pine trees.
The eye is basically a very large F2 tornado at this point. It's not going to lessen for a while because "landfall" is a technical term in that part of the coast due to costal erosion.
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 12:02 PM on August 29, 2021 [16 favorites]
Welp, serves me right for posting. Just lost power, still have internet, going to shut down now to save power for cell charge.
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 12:07 PM on August 29, 2021 [29 favorites]
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 12:07 PM on August 29, 2021 [29 favorites]
As of right this second, it looks like about 1/2 the city has power.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:14 PM on August 29, 2021
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:14 PM on August 29, 2021
TWinbrook8, I'm pretty sure they're at Lakeshore and Canal, filming from atop the levee. Very early doors, but the system is still holding up.
posted by suckerpunch at 12:18 PM on August 29, 2021
posted by suckerpunch at 12:18 PM on August 29, 2021
The storm that hit the Northeast last weekend was nothing by comparison, but the torrential rain and flash flooding were a good reminder of what it looks like when a tropical storm picks up even a little bit of energy over water and then unleashes it over land.
Thinking about y’all, holding my breath, and hoping for the best.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 1:28 PM on August 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
Thinking about y’all, holding my breath, and hoping for the best.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 1:28 PM on August 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
well, NHC storm surge predictions, which i think do not account for wetlands, have been lowered for Advisory 14
we just finished a few hundred million in dune restoration, which has probably helped, but too early to type, really
But it is interesting, the differences in philosophy, whether wetlands count as land or not in your surge model change the results considerably.
CERA, which accounts for wetlands in storm surge predictions, have increased their predicted peak surge heights, and i think they are meeting in the middle, less than 9 feet in most places
USGS gauges in Wilkinson Bay are vertical, and haven't peaked yet, the wave is hitting now.
Live Storms media is on youtube
posted by eustatic at 2:45 PM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
we just finished a few hundred million in dune restoration, which has probably helped, but too early to type, really
But it is interesting, the differences in philosophy, whether wetlands count as land or not in your surge model change the results considerably.
CERA, which accounts for wetlands in storm surge predictions, have increased their predicted peak surge heights, and i think they are meeting in the middle, less than 9 feet in most places
USGS gauges in Wilkinson Bay are vertical, and haven't peaked yet, the wave is hitting now.
Live Storms media is on youtube
posted by eustatic at 2:45 PM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]
Looks like power is mostly out to the city's pumps, which is like Wilhelm Scream territory. They could take weeks to come back online, according to one media tweet -- pray the storms clears out quickly so crews can get right to work.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:25 PM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by wenestvedt at 6:25 PM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]
Power is out in all of New Orleans due to “catastrophic transmission damage”.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:27 PM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 6:27 PM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
Just looked at some maps and stuff on the NOAA site, I think it wobbled back to the east.
posted by vrakatar at 6:50 PM on August 29, 2021
posted by vrakatar at 6:50 PM on August 29, 2021
@FOX8NOLA reporting an electrical transmission tower that supplies power to the entire city of New Orleans has fallen into the Mississippi River.
This is a terrible, terrible storm. So many people have so much hardship in front of them right now.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:17 PM on August 29, 2021 [4 favorites]
This is a terrible, terrible storm. So many people have so much hardship in front of them right now.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:17 PM on August 29, 2021 [4 favorites]
Being a long term resident of the tropical north coast of Australia, I have been through a few of these, including having to rebuild from scratch.
All the best to anybody in its path.
posted by Pouteria at 8:12 PM on August 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
All the best to anybody in its path.
posted by Pouteria at 8:12 PM on August 29, 2021 [5 favorites]
water levels in grand bayou seem to have peaked. plaquemines levee in white ditch was overtopped. hearing different things about lafourche levees. concerns about terrebonne have not materialized, which is good.
posted by eustatic at 9:03 PM on August 29, 2021
posted by eustatic at 9:03 PM on August 29, 2021
John Scalzi wrote this after Katrina to answer the people who were asking "Why didn't they leave?"
Being Poor
Being poor is knowing exactly how much everything costs.
Being poor is getting angry at your kids for asking for all the crap they see on TV.
Being poor is having to keep buying $800 cars because they’re what you can afford, and then having the cars break down on you, because there’s not an $800 car in America that’s worth a damn.
Being poor is hoping the toothache goes away.
Being poor is knowing your kid goes to friends’ houses but never has friends over to yours.
...
Being poor is people wondering why you didn’t leave.
I read the full blog post every now and then.
posted by AlSweigart at 9:07 PM on August 29, 2021 [14 favorites]
Being Poor
Being poor is knowing exactly how much everything costs.
Being poor is getting angry at your kids for asking for all the crap they see on TV.
Being poor is having to keep buying $800 cars because they’re what you can afford, and then having the cars break down on you, because there’s not an $800 car in America that’s worth a damn.
Being poor is hoping the toothache goes away.
Being poor is knowing your kid goes to friends’ houses but never has friends over to yours.
...
Being poor is people wondering why you didn’t leave.
I read the full blog post every now and then.
posted by AlSweigart at 9:07 PM on August 29, 2021 [14 favorites]
"Eye of the hurricane Ida penetration" - file under "car trips Reed Trimmer makes so we don't have to".
posted by rongorongo at 11:01 PM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 11:01 PM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted. Do not start up with victim blaming people for living where they live, or for not evacuating when you are not in their shoes making their choices or facing their lack of choice. This thread will be for updates and information and not for smugly judging your fellow human beings in peril. Banning anyone who brings that here.
posted by taz (staff) at 12:54 AM on August 30, 2021 [75 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 12:54 AM on August 30, 2021 [75 favorites]
The morning National news is showing clip after clip of wind damage, and my daughter is just gasping.
Glad to see the storm weakening somewhat, and heading inland to ease off.
posted by wenestvedt at 4:09 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
Glad to see the storm weakening somewhat, and heading inland to ease off.
posted by wenestvedt at 4:09 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
There's only music and no news coverage, but for anyone eager for NOLA vibes and solidarity while reading the news reports from other outlets, local station WWOZ has a fantastic live stream.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:44 AM on August 30, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:44 AM on August 30, 2021 [5 favorites]
The damage looks terrible, and I am sure we’re only seeing the start of reporting.
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:15 AM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:15 AM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
The extent of the damage is widely varied. Some places are just out of power with a lot of debris around. Some places are inundated with floodwaters and emergency services is planning a house-by-house sweep like they did post-Katrina.
posted by Night_owl at 5:47 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Night_owl at 5:47 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
ALSO:
Evacuation orders not given
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:49 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
Evacuation orders not given
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:49 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
Does anyone have an idea of how well the levee redesigns and other post-Katrina hurricane/flooding infrastructure held up?
posted by GenjiandProust at 8:00 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by GenjiandProust at 8:00 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]
I ain'tnt ded
No power no mains water, no flooding locally, tree fell on my office so was emptying buckets most of sun night. Ppl on street were ok although if one tree had fallen 6 ft to the left we'd have a fatality
Think ppl are used to slower hurricanes. I know that as of 1am sat the call was still only tropical storm winds and rain in gno area which is ride out not get out when you have pets
Thinking v seriously about moving tho. Getting too old for this shit. Worried about some friends who chose to ride it out in Lapalco haven't heard back. Internet spotty, had to reboot to get cell data. Radio talking about power not water so I guess the levies held in nola. Overtopped in plaqiemines parish. Heard of some v heavy localized flooding due to rain bands. AFAIK of the ways out of nola, airline is closed due to flooding, they are still clearing debris and powerlines from i55 and i10w, the causeway is closed.
So yeah, some ppl just flat can't afford to get out. We could have financially and had places to go, luckier than most
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 9:00 AM on August 30, 2021 [38 favorites]
No power no mains water, no flooding locally, tree fell on my office so was emptying buckets most of sun night. Ppl on street were ok although if one tree had fallen 6 ft to the left we'd have a fatality
Think ppl are used to slower hurricanes. I know that as of 1am sat the call was still only tropical storm winds and rain in gno area which is ride out not get out when you have pets
Thinking v seriously about moving tho. Getting too old for this shit. Worried about some friends who chose to ride it out in Lapalco haven't heard back. Internet spotty, had to reboot to get cell data. Radio talking about power not water so I guess the levies held in nola. Overtopped in plaqiemines parish. Heard of some v heavy localized flooding due to rain bands. AFAIK of the ways out of nola, airline is closed due to flooding, they are still clearing debris and powerlines from i55 and i10w, the causeway is closed.
So yeah, some ppl just flat can't afford to get out. We could have financially and had places to go, luckier than most
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 9:00 AM on August 30, 2021 [38 favorites]
Storm surge and strong winds from Hurricane Ida stopped the flow of the Mississippi River near New Orleans on Sunday and actually caused it to reverse -- something the US Geological Survey says is "extremely uncommon." (CNN) [Maybe becoming more common? Hurricane Laura last year, and Hurricane Isaac in 2012]
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:47 AM on August 30, 2021
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:47 AM on August 30, 2021
"mad dan" eccles: Think ppl are used to slower hurricanes.
That's what got me about this one: it was a storm then on Thursday it was bad news and at landfall it was a Category 4 and by Monday morning back down to tropical storm and over the state line.
I live in New England and we are used to having a solid week to run around and flap our arms and prepare before a hurricane arrives. This one jumped out of the closet like a got-dam horror movie.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:03 PM on August 30, 2021 [11 favorites]
That's what got me about this one: it was a storm then on Thursday it was bad news and at landfall it was a Category 4 and by Monday morning back down to tropical storm and over the state line.
I live in New England and we are used to having a solid week to run around and flap our arms and prepare before a hurricane arrives. This one jumped out of the closet like a got-dam horror movie.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:03 PM on August 30, 2021 [11 favorites]
Evacuating from a hurricane is not as easy as people like to pretend
Reddit thread on the reasons people don't always evacuate, including many comments with personal experience of evacuations.
posted by roolya_boolya at 2:30 PM on August 30, 2021 [11 favorites]
Reddit thread on the reasons people don't always evacuate, including many comments with personal experience of evacuations.
posted by roolya_boolya at 2:30 PM on August 30, 2021 [11 favorites]
Does anyone have an idea of how well the levee redesigns and other post-Katrina hurricane/flooding infrastructure held up?
posted by GenjiandProust at 8:00 AM on August 30
i'll take a stab at this, since i had an emotional post on this subject earlier, it was based on the news article that was posted above, and the NHC surge projection.
per the initial NHC projections, Ida could have been a test of overtopping the westbank new orleans HSDRRS system. the system is designed not to breach if it is overtopped.
this "test" was not conducted, because the surge was lower than projected, and Estelle, Marrero, etc, were not flooded by overtopping--or "residual risk." Once the surge made landfall, and the water levels were not as high as NHC thought, NHC lowered their projections in their communications, and my post, and the nola.com article linked above, became out of date.
CERA, another modelling concern that does storm surge projections alongside NHC, accounts for all of the Post-Katrina island restoration and wetland restoration in their modelling, somewhat.
[does Louisiana have the largest ecosystem restoration program in the USA? it's a ~$30 Billion concern over much of the state, and it's to do this very thing, dampen storm surge]
So, I think that, but I don't really know, this may have been a test of "is rebuilding these wetlands and islands worth it to dampen storm surge"? and the answer is "probably, but no one is really reviewing it"
but there may be another reason that the NHC and CERA surge projections differed, or multiple other reasons that i don't know about.
So i think the answer to the question, did the HSDRRS pass a test? --it seems like it wasn't tested to its limit. it certainly passed a soft test.
the east west levee in st bernard, and the barge gate on the intercoastal, are considered to be weak points, and those weak points didn't fail.
Lafourche and Terrebonne are on record as wanting cheaper levees below the Post Katrina levee standards. Their claim is that "we know levees, we don't need the feds, our levees are small, and they will be overtopped but they won't breach. Post Katrina standards just make the levees cost too much, and then they fail cost/ benefit" --just google Wendell Curole, Wendell's whole career is representing this approach to the federal gov't.
This seems to be true, except in Raceland? I dunno, we have reports that levees were overtopped, but not breached. I would like some independent engineering confirmation. During Barry, the Morganza to the Gulf seems to have had a breach, but Terrebonne claimed it was under construction as the cause of the breach. I think they aren't lying, but it would be nice if there were independent reviews.
So, Ida may turn out to be a good test of Wendell's ideas, since the surge seems to have hit the LaRose to Golden Meadow system in Southern Lafourche pretty hard, and we haven't heard of any problems with the South Lafourche system.
And when you compare the way Lafourche and Terrebonne fund and operate their levees vs Jefferson and Plaquemines, it's clear that there is something different about how the non-federal levees in JP and Plaq Parishes are built, vs Terrebonne and Lafourche.
There has been a tremendous amount of corruption with levee contracts in Plaquemines and Lt Gov Nungesser. Nungesser is like Louisiana's Trump--always self-dealing always peddling cronyism and favors, outspokenly anti-Black, and always short on results. And you can't prosecute him, because he's elected. When Nungesser was president of Plaquemines, his contractors for Isaac levee repairs left large holes in the levees.
So I think we really need federal standards in Plaquemines Parish. The federal levees in Plaquemines held, and the federal structures, like high schools, etc, have not been reported to have fallen. But the non federal levees in Plaquemines had catastrophic breaches on the eastbank and westbank, and they fail often--this time, they might have really failed
The westbank area that breached has been majority African American for generations, and that's one of the reasons why the Parish has never invested in the levee system there.
Plaquemines is in the middle of building the "New Orleans to Venice" system to federal standards. it is a Port-Katrina project. But it is far from complete. It may now need a supplemental appropriation from the damage. Let's hope not--the thinking goes that at least a third of your money in a levee project goes to mobilization, so it's relatively cheap to fix the thing if there are problems during construction.
You may have also heard about LaPlace in St John Parish. The folks there will have the "West Shore Lake Pontchartrain" system, that will be built to federal standards in a few years. But that system had only just begun construction.
So, that was more than you asked, sorry, but i need to try to get this all straight in my head for some professional work i have ahead of me.
summary:
No federal levees were overtopped --all performed as expected
Federal wetlands restoration may have overperformed
levee breaches are all in non federal levees so far, i need `more info from plaq
Terrebonne and Lafourche levees were overtopped but appear not to have breached, which is political fodder for them to continue to be built below federal standards with federal money.
posted by eustatic at 3:53 PM on August 30, 2021 [23 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 8:00 AM on August 30
i'll take a stab at this, since i had an emotional post on this subject earlier, it was based on the news article that was posted above, and the NHC surge projection.
per the initial NHC projections, Ida could have been a test of overtopping the westbank new orleans HSDRRS system. the system is designed not to breach if it is overtopped.
this "test" was not conducted, because the surge was lower than projected, and Estelle, Marrero, etc, were not flooded by overtopping--or "residual risk." Once the surge made landfall, and the water levels were not as high as NHC thought, NHC lowered their projections in their communications, and my post, and the nola.com article linked above, became out of date.
CERA, another modelling concern that does storm surge projections alongside NHC, accounts for all of the Post-Katrina island restoration and wetland restoration in their modelling, somewhat.
[does Louisiana have the largest ecosystem restoration program in the USA? it's a ~$30 Billion concern over much of the state, and it's to do this very thing, dampen storm surge]
So, I think that, but I don't really know, this may have been a test of "is rebuilding these wetlands and islands worth it to dampen storm surge"? and the answer is "probably, but no one is really reviewing it"
but there may be another reason that the NHC and CERA surge projections differed, or multiple other reasons that i don't know about.
So i think the answer to the question, did the HSDRRS pass a test? --it seems like it wasn't tested to its limit. it certainly passed a soft test.
the east west levee in st bernard, and the barge gate on the intercoastal, are considered to be weak points, and those weak points didn't fail.
Lafourche and Terrebonne are on record as wanting cheaper levees below the Post Katrina levee standards. Their claim is that "we know levees, we don't need the feds, our levees are small, and they will be overtopped but they won't breach. Post Katrina standards just make the levees cost too much, and then they fail cost/ benefit" --just google Wendell Curole, Wendell's whole career is representing this approach to the federal gov't.
This seems to be true, except in Raceland? I dunno, we have reports that levees were overtopped, but not breached. I would like some independent engineering confirmation. During Barry, the Morganza to the Gulf seems to have had a breach, but Terrebonne claimed it was under construction as the cause of the breach. I think they aren't lying, but it would be nice if there were independent reviews.
So, Ida may turn out to be a good test of Wendell's ideas, since the surge seems to have hit the LaRose to Golden Meadow system in Southern Lafourche pretty hard, and we haven't heard of any problems with the South Lafourche system.
And when you compare the way Lafourche and Terrebonne fund and operate their levees vs Jefferson and Plaquemines, it's clear that there is something different about how the non-federal levees in JP and Plaq Parishes are built, vs Terrebonne and Lafourche.
There has been a tremendous amount of corruption with levee contracts in Plaquemines and Lt Gov Nungesser. Nungesser is like Louisiana's Trump--always self-dealing always peddling cronyism and favors, outspokenly anti-Black, and always short on results. And you can't prosecute him, because he's elected. When Nungesser was president of Plaquemines, his contractors for Isaac levee repairs left large holes in the levees.
So I think we really need federal standards in Plaquemines Parish. The federal levees in Plaquemines held, and the federal structures, like high schools, etc, have not been reported to have fallen. But the non federal levees in Plaquemines had catastrophic breaches on the eastbank and westbank, and they fail often--this time, they might have really failed
The westbank area that breached has been majority African American for generations, and that's one of the reasons why the Parish has never invested in the levee system there.
Plaquemines is in the middle of building the "New Orleans to Venice" system to federal standards. it is a Port-Katrina project. But it is far from complete. It may now need a supplemental appropriation from the damage. Let's hope not--the thinking goes that at least a third of your money in a levee project goes to mobilization, so it's relatively cheap to fix the thing if there are problems during construction.
You may have also heard about LaPlace in St John Parish. The folks there will have the "West Shore Lake Pontchartrain" system, that will be built to federal standards in a few years. But that system had only just begun construction.
So, that was more than you asked, sorry, but i need to try to get this all straight in my head for some professional work i have ahead of me.
summary:
No federal levees were overtopped --all performed as expected
Federal wetlands restoration may have overperformed
levee breaches are all in non federal levees so far, i need `more info from plaq
Terrebonne and Lafourche levees were overtopped but appear not to have breached, which is political fodder for them to continue to be built below federal standards with federal money.
posted by eustatic at 3:53 PM on August 30, 2021 [23 favorites]
also, i am not an engineer, i studied fish in school, the info i have is from 10 years of listening to State and Parish government communications, and this is all subject to a lot of new information that is going to come out once there are other personnel outside of Parish emergency staff looking at things
posted by eustatic at 4:35 PM on August 30, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by eustatic at 4:35 PM on August 30, 2021 [6 favorites]
Having grown up on the gulf, I’m terrified by what monsters we’ve seen lately.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:17 PM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:17 PM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]
I read this book earlier this year and recommend it for anyone who wants more on the before and after of Katrina, and disasters in general.
posted by sepviva at 7:26 PM on August 30, 2021
posted by sepviva at 7:26 PM on August 30, 2021
Thinking v seriously about moving tho. Getting too old for this shit.
posted by "mad dan" eccles
I am preparing to move away from the tropics next year. Had my fill of cyclone seasons, nearly 60 of them now. Plus the already ferocious heat and humidity are getting worse with climate change.
Time to find a gentler place for my dotage.
(There are also other reasons for moving, like being nearer family. But cyclones and climate change are certainly major ones.)
posted by Pouteria at 10:13 PM on August 30, 2021
posted by "mad dan" eccles
I am preparing to move away from the tropics next year. Had my fill of cyclone seasons, nearly 60 of them now. Plus the already ferocious heat and humidity are getting worse with climate change.
Time to find a gentler place for my dotage.
(There are also other reasons for moving, like being nearer family. But cyclones and climate change are certainly major ones.)
posted by Pouteria at 10:13 PM on August 30, 2021
We're under the weakened, breezy, been-over-land-for-days remnants of Ida right now and I have no idea how this thing still has so much water in it.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 7:36 PM on September 1, 2021
posted by evidenceofabsence at 7:36 PM on September 1, 2021
It s that hot hot Gulf baby.
We were in Montgomery, and the storm came through, and I hardly noticed. I think I'm numb to noticing rain unless two inches fall in 30 minutes.
posted by eustatic at 9:32 PM on September 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
We were in Montgomery, and the storm came through, and I hardly noticed. I think I'm numb to noticing rain unless two inches fall in 30 minutes.
posted by eustatic at 9:32 PM on September 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
The Atlantic has a thoughtful piece on likely forced climate migration after Hurricane Ida and other natural disasters.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:00 AM on September 3, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:00 AM on September 3, 2021 [2 favorites]
I have no idea how accurate this is, but here are Entergy’s projected timeframes for restoration of power. Looks like, best case, some areas will be waiting until at least Wednesday.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 12:30 PM on September 3, 2021
posted by evidenceofabsence at 12:30 PM on September 3, 2021
It's not until Wednesday. My daughter lives in Des Allemands, in St. Charles Parish, with my ex. They've been told they might have power restored by September 29th.
'Power is still out for more than 600,000 Entergy customers. Entergy Louisiana CEO Phillip May said on a call this morning that "No storm has even come close to this in terms of the devastation it has placed on our system."
Here's the latest on Entergy's restoration timeline:
St. Bernard: Sept. 7
Orleans, east and west bank of Jefferson Parish: Sept. 8
St. Tammany, Belle Chasse: Sept. 10
St. James, St. John, Tangipahoa: Sept. 17
Lower Jefferson, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Charles, Plaquemines: Sept. 29
Here's the full timeline, plus an updated neighborhood breakdown for New Orleans: https://bit.ly/3kRhCh7'
We got this text yesterday from Entergy.
posted by doyouknowwhoIam? at 7:41 PM on September 5, 2021 [3 favorites]
'Power is still out for more than 600,000 Entergy customers. Entergy Louisiana CEO Phillip May said on a call this morning that "No storm has even come close to this in terms of the devastation it has placed on our system."
Here's the latest on Entergy's restoration timeline:
St. Bernard: Sept. 7
Orleans, east and west bank of Jefferson Parish: Sept. 8
St. Tammany, Belle Chasse: Sept. 10
St. James, St. John, Tangipahoa: Sept. 17
Lower Jefferson, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Charles, Plaquemines: Sept. 29
Here's the full timeline, plus an updated neighborhood breakdown for New Orleans: https://bit.ly/3kRhCh7'
We got this text yesterday from Entergy.
posted by doyouknowwhoIam? at 7:41 PM on September 5, 2021 [3 favorites]
I like that Atlantic article on forced migration. it happens much slower than people imagine.
The whole thing that's offensive about "should we rebuild X in Louisiana", is that the united states has been destroying Louisiana for seven decades, for oil and gas production.
Louisiana HAS been experiencing a forced migration due to the oil and gas destruction of our land, spurred by neglect from the USA, and the US demands for oil. We ARE leaving, thank you very much.
The Biden Administration is the first one to review large petrochemical development in an EIS, in St James Parish, for the Formosa Plastics proposal. This may be the first time that such a development is required to do an EIS.
And by the time that a question like "should we rebuild Houma / Delacroix" becomes less offensive, people will have to ask the same question about New York, as per the IPCC predictions.
posted by eustatic at 8:40 PM on September 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
The whole thing that's offensive about "should we rebuild X in Louisiana", is that the united states has been destroying Louisiana for seven decades, for oil and gas production.
Louisiana HAS been experiencing a forced migration due to the oil and gas destruction of our land, spurred by neglect from the USA, and the US demands for oil. We ARE leaving, thank you very much.
The Biden Administration is the first one to review large petrochemical development in an EIS, in St James Parish, for the Formosa Plastics proposal. This may be the first time that such a development is required to do an EIS.
And by the time that a question like "should we rebuild Houma / Delacroix" becomes less offensive, people will have to ask the same question about New York, as per the IPCC predictions.
posted by eustatic at 8:40 PM on September 7, 2021 [5 favorites]
Based on how many people died up here I don’t know if it’s even a matter of “by the time.” The suffering isn’t on the same scale by any means, but the degree to which we fucked up is still horrific.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 2:18 AM on September 8, 2021
posted by evidenceofabsence at 2:18 AM on September 8, 2021
Had power since Wednesday, just got home internet back on Sunday afternoon. The inexorable laws of supply and demand ensure that there are now rows of generators and icechests in the hardware stores and Sams.
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 2:38 PM on September 12, 2021
posted by "mad dan" eccles at 2:38 PM on September 12, 2021
« Older The call is coming from outside the house | Curated, non-commercial, omnivorous film... Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:27 PM on August 28, 2021 [13 favorites]