"Mitigate, adapt or suffer"
September 8, 2021 10:40 AM Subscribe
Electricity is slowly being restored after Hurricane Ida, while areas as far north as New Jersey and New York continue major clean ups from the storm. What we can and should we do in communities that are likely to bear the most intense, repeated impacts of climate change? The NY Times offers an overview of the issues and approaches: "Climate Disaster Is the New Normal. Can We Save Ourselves?" along with a visual feature from the Oregon wildfires, "Wildfire Took These Families’ Homes. Here’s Why They Stay." There is currently no national plan for climate adaptation. What should one include?
Better infrastructure for biking and walking (etc.). More natural space. More edible landscaping. A publicly-run disaster relief training network.
posted by aniola at 12:08 PM on September 8, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by aniola at 12:08 PM on September 8, 2021 [7 favorites]
I think the “waiting for a national plan” is part of the problem - there are a lot of things local municipalities (and people) can accomplish - bike/ebike commute infra for starters.
posted by H. Roark at 12:45 PM on September 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by H. Roark at 12:45 PM on September 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future offers some ideas.
posted by doctornemo at 12:47 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by doctornemo at 12:47 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
The climate crisis is not "coming". It's here, and it's everywhere.
Nearly 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster this summer
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 12:48 PM on September 8, 2021 [12 favorites]
Nearly 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster this summer
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 12:48 PM on September 8, 2021 [12 favorites]
One idea some colleagues and I are working on is to encourage universities around the world to create climate alliances, from setting up a kind of global climate relief corps to better supporting public scholarship and more productive local relationships.
Articles and book tk.
posted by doctornemo at 12:49 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
Articles and book tk.
posted by doctornemo at 12:49 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future offers some ideas.
+1, after seeing it recommended a few times in these threads I went ahead and picked it up.
Probably the most optimistic-while-still-sounding-plausibly-realistic vision for the future I've seen on the subject.
(though the opening chapter *is* as harrowing as you might hear, as a heads-up)
posted by CrystalDave at 1:00 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
+1, after seeing it recommended a few times in these threads I went ahead and picked it up.
Probably the most optimistic-while-still-sounding-plausibly-realistic vision for the future I've seen on the subject.
(though the opening chapter *is* as harrowing as you might hear, as a heads-up)
posted by CrystalDave at 1:00 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
"Probably the most optimistic-while-still-sounding-plausibly-realistic vision for the future I've seen on the subject." It is, although it didn't get much love here during the last thread on recent sf.
posted by doctornemo at 1:10 PM on September 8, 2021
posted by doctornemo at 1:10 PM on September 8, 2021
Fwiw, the The Millennium Project, the World Futures Studies Federation, and the Association of Professional Futurists (full disclosure: I'm a board member) is publicly calling on United Nations Secretary General António Guterres to set up a UN Office on Strategic Threats.
posted by doctornemo at 1:12 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by doctornemo at 1:12 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Fwiw, the The Millennium Project, the World Futures Studies Federation, and the Association of Professional Futurists (full disclosure: I'm a board member) is publicly calling on United Nations Secretary General António Guterres to set up a UN Office on Strategic Threats.
Hopefully the fossil fuel producers, the American Petroleum Institute, the Murdochs, etc. will all be a focus of this office.
posted by ryanshepard at 1:16 PM on September 8, 2021 [7 favorites]
Hopefully the fossil fuel producers, the American Petroleum Institute, the Murdochs, etc. will all be a focus of this office.
posted by ryanshepard at 1:16 PM on September 8, 2021 [7 favorites]
Here in the north San Francisco Bay area (where fire has already struck a lot in the past few years), if we don't have a wet winter we're gonna have to start thinking seriously about radical solutions to water availability. And by "radical" I mean things like nuclear desalination. in an area that's very primed against nuclear, and that'd take a long time to build anyway. My gut feel for what solar desal would take is all mucked up, and we'd have to get past the farming interests, because they're gonna want 3/4 of whatever's created for hoity toity wine grapes, or shipping pistachios to China.
That's not an obvious humanitarian crisis, but it could have one hell of an economic impact if all of us in over-priced homes suddenly both find those homes worthless and have to resettle to regions of the US we have previously shunned.
I'm a little skeptical of "publicly-run disaster relief training network", because my experience with CERT training is that it was essentially disaster cosplay. Having been through a couple of our big fire seasons now, and seen how friends have had to evac and how they've dealt with that, not much of the scenarios we went through in those classes is super relevant to what we're facing. Nor are the social structures that curriculum suggested setting up all that stable.
My city (Petaluma) is going all out for the Cool City Challenge/Cool Block Challenge, which I'm a little skeptical about because it feels too much like "let's make individual consumers feel guilty about systemic problems" with a healthy dose of "suburban homesteading" (eg: doubling down on auto-oriented infrastructure and sprawl) thrown in.
I'm involved in an organization that's attempted to do regional level education on issues of housing and development, and ancillary topics like how those impact transportation and carbon load, in an attempt to try to drive better city and county decisions, but that's slow going, and thinking in half-century kind-of scales when it's becoming more clear that we need to be thinking in sub-year scales.
We're pretty good about knowing our neighbors and knowing a bit about where the sorts of resources we'd need for sheltering in place could be pooled from (who's got the swimming pools for water for flushing and bathing, who's got medical things we need to be aware of), and during some of the worst smoke periods from fires we haven't been the only people walking up and down the street knocking on doors and seeing if there's anything we can do to help, any resources we can share, but the larger problems, trying to meet the competing issues of housing needs and water availability (in an area where agriculture lays claim to most of it), trying to encourage building somewhere outside of that oh so attractive sea level flood plain or greenfields that'd provide softening effects to potential flooding without discouraging that much-needed high density housing, trying to move 8 home/acre suburbia with 50MPH roads separating them from the schools and shopping to be pedestrian friendly.
posted by straw at 2:28 PM on September 8, 2021 [11 favorites]
That's not an obvious humanitarian crisis, but it could have one hell of an economic impact if all of us in over-priced homes suddenly both find those homes worthless and have to resettle to regions of the US we have previously shunned.
I'm a little skeptical of "publicly-run disaster relief training network", because my experience with CERT training is that it was essentially disaster cosplay. Having been through a couple of our big fire seasons now, and seen how friends have had to evac and how they've dealt with that, not much of the scenarios we went through in those classes is super relevant to what we're facing. Nor are the social structures that curriculum suggested setting up all that stable.
My city (Petaluma) is going all out for the Cool City Challenge/Cool Block Challenge, which I'm a little skeptical about because it feels too much like "let's make individual consumers feel guilty about systemic problems" with a healthy dose of "suburban homesteading" (eg: doubling down on auto-oriented infrastructure and sprawl) thrown in.
I'm involved in an organization that's attempted to do regional level education on issues of housing and development, and ancillary topics like how those impact transportation and carbon load, in an attempt to try to drive better city and county decisions, but that's slow going, and thinking in half-century kind-of scales when it's becoming more clear that we need to be thinking in sub-year scales.
We're pretty good about knowing our neighbors and knowing a bit about where the sorts of resources we'd need for sheltering in place could be pooled from (who's got the swimming pools for water for flushing and bathing, who's got medical things we need to be aware of), and during some of the worst smoke periods from fires we haven't been the only people walking up and down the street knocking on doors and seeing if there's anything we can do to help, any resources we can share, but the larger problems, trying to meet the competing issues of housing needs and water availability (in an area where agriculture lays claim to most of it), trying to encourage building somewhere outside of that oh so attractive sea level flood plain or greenfields that'd provide softening effects to potential flooding without discouraging that much-needed high density housing, trying to move 8 home/acre suburbia with 50MPH roads separating them from the schools and shopping to be pedestrian friendly.
posted by straw at 2:28 PM on September 8, 2021 [11 favorites]
Finally, the terminology reflects the true nature of what we're dealing with. In my lifetime we've gone from:
Global Warming (oh, but I like the summer)
Climate Change (how is it going to be warmer and colder at the same time?)
Climate Disaster (larger and larger hurricanes, floods, wildfires, heat waves, cold waves)
posted by meowzilla at 2:31 PM on September 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
Global Warming (oh, but I like the summer)
Climate Change (how is it going to be warmer and colder at the same time?)
Climate Disaster (larger and larger hurricanes, floods, wildfires, heat waves, cold waves)
posted by meowzilla at 2:31 PM on September 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
People will simply rebuild in the exact same spot -- moving out of disaster areas doesn't seem to be in us as a species.
My favorite example of this is the Mount Batur volcano in Bali. It erupts once every thirty years or so destroying everything inside it, and yet people continue to build villages inside the caldera. The volcano goes up, people lose everything, and as soon as it crusts over everyone moves back in.
The people who build and rebuild on flood plains and in the middle of ecosystems that rely on periodic burns are no different. If you want to make plans you can rely on it.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 2:36 PM on September 8, 2021 [5 favorites]
My favorite example of this is the Mount Batur volcano in Bali. It erupts once every thirty years or so destroying everything inside it, and yet people continue to build villages inside the caldera. The volcano goes up, people lose everything, and as soon as it crusts over everyone moves back in.
The people who build and rebuild on flood plains and in the middle of ecosystems that rely on periodic burns are no different. If you want to make plans you can rely on it.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 2:36 PM on September 8, 2021 [5 favorites]
I recently read Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future (thanks for the tip, doctornemo) and then sat in on a webinar he participated in, organized by the New America think tank, on "Unlocking Our Climate Imagination." My disappointment with both the novel and the panel discussion was the political naivete. Both are filled with good, big, necessary ideas. But getting any of these ideas enacted in major democracies that are barely able to get widespread acceptance for COVID-19 vaccinations, let alone develop broad-based support for plans that require personal sacrifices... well, it's hard to avoid feeling doom and gloom.
posted by PhineasGage at 3:23 PM on September 8, 2021 [14 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 3:23 PM on September 8, 2021 [14 favorites]
I think the “waiting for a national plan” is part of the problem - there are a lot of things local municipalities (and people) can accomplish - bike/ebike commute infra for starters.
A step up in scale from this: the biggest use of energy in most homes is heating, for space, water and cooking. Currently many places are on a fossil gas supply. Many key alternatives produce heat locally and pretty much all heat infrastructure is local since heat doesn't travel too well. Encourage your city to work with communities to develop a strategy on how to decarbonise your block/neighbourhood/district/city in a way that best meets the needs of users. This would still benefit from a national strategy but there are actions that can be taken now. For example, training up providers, bulk buying, building awareness of low carbon heat tech, building trust, developing champions, investigating district heating, and improving energy efficiency in buildings is both beneficial in its own right and an essential precursor to a move to low carbon heat.
posted by biffa at 3:36 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
A step up in scale from this: the biggest use of energy in most homes is heating, for space, water and cooking. Currently many places are on a fossil gas supply. Many key alternatives produce heat locally and pretty much all heat infrastructure is local since heat doesn't travel too well. Encourage your city to work with communities to develop a strategy on how to decarbonise your block/neighbourhood/district/city in a way that best meets the needs of users. This would still benefit from a national strategy but there are actions that can be taken now. For example, training up providers, bulk buying, building awareness of low carbon heat tech, building trust, developing champions, investigating district heating, and improving energy efficiency in buildings is both beneficial in its own right and an essential precursor to a move to low carbon heat.
posted by biffa at 3:36 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
I hear you, PhineasGage. That panel disappointed me as well.
The novel... on the one hand, Robinson has often thinly sketched out villains in his fiction. They don't get a lot of description in this one. On the other, he's trying to create a semi-utopian vision, and to offer a positive glide path we can strive for.
His New York novel has something of a similar issue, although it does include a character arc from bad guy (finance bro) to good, and some actual fighting.
posted by doctornemo at 3:37 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
The novel... on the one hand, Robinson has often thinly sketched out villains in his fiction. They don't get a lot of description in this one. On the other, he's trying to create a semi-utopian vision, and to offer a positive glide path we can strive for.
His New York novel has something of a similar issue, although it does include a character arc from bad guy (finance bro) to good, and some actual fighting.
posted by doctornemo at 3:37 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future offers some ideas.
I recommend this alot, and am glad to see folks mentioning it here. It isn't perfect, but it helped frame things in "realistic but difficult" territory, which I think eventually humans will sort out (and maybe with relatively few of us left). However, I agree with the critiques above. Something that's glossed over in the discussion of that book is that a not-zero amount of the collective action around climate change in that book is due in part to terrorism straight up: small numbers of people working to asymmetrically fight carbon emissions. I don't think we've seen the catalyzing events that the book illustrates to produce such a thing, but I think we're only a generation or less away from them. Passages about "down day" (airlines worldwide being taken out in a single day by a series of small-drone strikes) and the infection of beef with mad cow disease at random intervals are going to be met with extreme disdain and retaliation by the populace, but are likely to be extremely effective at changing behavior. If you have a n% chance of getting a prion disease, you'll probably change your behavior once you start to see widespread change. You can still maybe make safe beef, but it'll get pretty damn expensive (changing behavior again).
I'm firmly in the camp of thinking Robinson's take on this is actually far more tame than the reality will be. Children today are being put through ecological gamuts that are going to radicalize them in ways that we don't understand, and the argument could be made that they're more morally flexible around this topic than their elders. The eco terrorists of the 90s are going to look like laughably fuzzy kittens in 20 years. Asymmetric warfare on behalf of the ecology of planet earth is going to be deeply uncomfortable for lots of people. One thing I don't think his book really dipped into much is that eco terrorists are likely going to be much more willing to participate in biological warfare that targets only humans. The tools for doing so becoming more realistic as time goes on, and easier to execute. My biggest critique is that his eco terrorists are going to be as restrained as they appear in the books; far less robin hood and far more "any means necessary."
posted by furnace.heart at 5:20 PM on September 8, 2021 [10 favorites]
I recommend this alot, and am glad to see folks mentioning it here. It isn't perfect, but it helped frame things in "realistic but difficult" territory, which I think eventually humans will sort out (and maybe with relatively few of us left). However, I agree with the critiques above. Something that's glossed over in the discussion of that book is that a not-zero amount of the collective action around climate change in that book is due in part to terrorism straight up: small numbers of people working to asymmetrically fight carbon emissions. I don't think we've seen the catalyzing events that the book illustrates to produce such a thing, but I think we're only a generation or less away from them. Passages about "down day" (airlines worldwide being taken out in a single day by a series of small-drone strikes) and the infection of beef with mad cow disease at random intervals are going to be met with extreme disdain and retaliation by the populace, but are likely to be extremely effective at changing behavior. If you have a n% chance of getting a prion disease, you'll probably change your behavior once you start to see widespread change. You can still maybe make safe beef, but it'll get pretty damn expensive (changing behavior again).
I'm firmly in the camp of thinking Robinson's take on this is actually far more tame than the reality will be. Children today are being put through ecological gamuts that are going to radicalize them in ways that we don't understand, and the argument could be made that they're more morally flexible around this topic than their elders. The eco terrorists of the 90s are going to look like laughably fuzzy kittens in 20 years. Asymmetric warfare on behalf of the ecology of planet earth is going to be deeply uncomfortable for lots of people. One thing I don't think his book really dipped into much is that eco terrorists are likely going to be much more willing to participate in biological warfare that targets only humans. The tools for doing so becoming more realistic as time goes on, and easier to execute. My biggest critique is that his eco terrorists are going to be as restrained as they appear in the books; far less robin hood and far more "any means necessary."
posted by furnace.heart at 5:20 PM on September 8, 2021 [10 favorites]
Since a lot of people are recommending Ministry for the Future, I feel compelled to point out that it’s worth reading for the ideas and imagined tough-but-winnable future (4.5 of 5 stars there), but as a novel with characters I thought it was awful (1/5 stars). The characters are the bare minimum needed to call it a novel. It’s really not - more of a collection of musings. It gave me hope, but I think that was my first and last KSR.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:30 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 7:30 PM on September 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm intrigued by Ministry for the Future, but I'm almost finished Blue Mars and I'm only going to finish it because I've got this far. TBH I think Gibson's Jackpot is bloody optimistic, in that anyone gets out alive, even if just the ultra-rich.
posted by pompomtom at 11:08 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by pompomtom at 11:08 PM on September 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
I live in Kansas and we've had 4 major hailstorms this year. Hail used to be a rare curiosity but now it's just a regular thing and it has been getting worse. My poor garden has been pummeled to death and I'm to the point of thinking I should build an enclosure over my raised beds covered with hardware cloth (wire mesh) to protect my plants. One of these storms also destroyed the roof to my greenhouse which needs to be replaced before winter so my plants don't freeze in there. This is obvious a minor complaint next to hurricanes and wildfires but it's definitely something that has changed just within my lifetime.
posted by drstrangelove at 3:35 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by drstrangelove at 3:35 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
Biffa, a large part of my local electricity comes from wind which is why I'm seriously thinking about replacing my 40 year old central gas furnace with a heat pump. I also am planning on installing at least 10 kw of solar panels next year which would go some ways towards offsetting my electrical consumption. I might even consider a technique similar to what the Technology Connections guy suggested for air conditioning-- running my heat higher during the day when I am just spinning my meter backwards with the solar panels and then letting the house get cold at night (which we prefer anyway, for sleeping.)
posted by drstrangelove at 4:13 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by drstrangelove at 4:13 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
Biffa, a large part of my local electricity comes from wind which is why I'm seriously thinking about replacing my 40 year old central gas furnace with a heat pump.We did this last year here in DC in an effort to get our daily life to stop using fossil fuels. We replaced our ancient gas water heater with a heat pump model, and gas furnace and AC with a variable speed heat pump + resistive heating system. We only have good roof space for a 5.6kW solar system but do have the option of buying renewable electricity and it turns out that wind + solar is a whopping 1¢/kWh over the regular rate.
The net impact for our 1,800 square foot house was that our winter utility bills were between $50-100 more per month, and our summer bills were about $50/month lower (the heat pump water heater is basically free) before factoring in the solar, which brings us close to $0 once we stop needing to heat. That’s not nothing, of course, but it’s affordable — and much cheaper than ignoring climate change.
The variable speed heat pump is much nicer than the old system because you smoothly transition heating and cooling rather than alternating between running either at full blast before settling back to our set point.
A couple of public policy options:
- DC has requires the power company to deliver a percentage of power from renewables. Since they prudently decided to return money to shareholders years ago rather then invest in infrastructure, they now buy SRECs from you at more than the metered rate so they can meet those targets. This means solar systems pay for themselves in 4-5 years and they’re going up all over. This should be a national policy.
- There’s currently no tax credit for electric heat pumps, only gas systems. This is absurd.
- Our system was not incredibly expensive but it wasn’t cheap. If you wanted a simple win, subsidized loans or income-based credits would be a great way to get people to electrify when they don’t have the upfront capital for a high-efficiency system.
- We didn’t go for it but you can get significant efficiency improvements by using a ground loop for a heat pump so the system is heating/cooling using the more consistent ground temperatures rather than ambient air. This is expensive since it involves things like putting pipes or shafts into the ground. It seems like exactly the kind of thing governments should subsidize since it’s a long-term win and would create a fair number of jobs all over.
Any climate change solution that isn't based on the psychology of the ultra-wealthy is not going to happen.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:07 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:07 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
Thanks for the information adamsc.
Since I'm doing the installation myself the added costs of the heat pump system will be negligible. Alas, there are basically no incentives to switch to a system like this in my state, but that wasn't a factor in my decision anyway.
posted by drstrangelove at 5:39 AM on September 9, 2021
Since I'm doing the installation myself the added costs of the heat pump system will be negligible. Alas, there are basically no incentives to switch to a system like this in my state, but that wasn't a factor in my decision anyway.
posted by drstrangelove at 5:39 AM on September 9, 2021
One thing to remember about Ministry For The Future is that it was largely written pre-covid. I can't imagine it was have the sort of haggard liberal optimism that it does if he'd started writing it now.
posted by wafehling at 7:51 AM on September 9, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by wafehling at 7:51 AM on September 9, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'm intrigued by Ministry for the Future, but I'm almost finished Blue Mars and I'm only going to finish it because I've got this far.
I don't remember which one, but Kim Stanley Robinson basically wrote an entire book apologizing for the Mars Trilogy. That newer book was basically like, we've got one planet.
posted by aniola at 7:58 AM on September 9, 2021
I don't remember which one, but Kim Stanley Robinson basically wrote an entire book apologizing for the Mars Trilogy. That newer book was basically like, we've got one planet.
posted by aniola at 7:58 AM on September 9, 2021
In Portland the emergency trainers are like, "everyone should have a 5-gallon bucket for pee and a 5-gallon bucket for poo." And they told me about how orderly everyone's plastic bags of waste were in Japan after a big earthquake or tsunami or something. Which, hey, acknowledging that our bodily functions continue after a disaster is... a start.
The thing is, it's legal in Portland now to have a humanure compost toilet system. I think just about anyone who is at all into emergency prep (and is in a position to do so) should have a compost toilet system. Think how many friends you'd have after some natural disaster takes out the sewers.
posted by aniola at 8:05 AM on September 9, 2021 [4 favorites]
The thing is, it's legal in Portland now to have a humanure compost toilet system. I think just about anyone who is at all into emergency prep (and is in a position to do so) should have a compost toilet system. Think how many friends you'd have after some natural disaster takes out the sewers.
posted by aniola at 8:05 AM on September 9, 2021 [4 favorites]
Finally, the terminology reflects the true nature of what we're dealing with.
I know you didn't mean it this way at all (and I agree about the need to communicate we're in the "disaster" situation) but it always irked me when conservatives said would use the changing terminology as some sort of gotcha. You used to see a lot of "What happened to global warming? Now it's so-called climate change? Pfft, those scientists are just making this all up." But I also used to point out that in 1995 I took a class in college called Global Climate Change so at least on the environmental science/policy side of things it has been called that from very early on. I think "global warming" was more the media term for it, but of course it's not like conservatives were arguing in good faith anyway.
posted by misskaz at 8:20 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
I know you didn't mean it this way at all (and I agree about the need to communicate we're in the "disaster" situation) but it always irked me when conservatives said would use the changing terminology as some sort of gotcha. You used to see a lot of "What happened to global warming? Now it's so-called climate change? Pfft, those scientists are just making this all up." But I also used to point out that in 1995 I took a class in college called Global Climate Change so at least on the environmental science/policy side of things it has been called that from very early on. I think "global warming" was more the media term for it, but of course it's not like conservatives were arguing in good faith anyway.
posted by misskaz at 8:20 AM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
aniola I don't know if it was apologizing exactly but I assume you're referring to Aurora which is basically "interplanetary colonization is a terrible awful idea everyone will die fix your dang planet people."
In interviews Robinson has also repeatedly emphasized how difficult colonizing Mars would actually be; he has mentioned for instance that since he wrote the Mars Trilogy it has been discovered that there is much less nitrogen on Mars than hoped, and the surface is covered in toxic perchlorates, both facts that make colonization much harder.
It does seem like in the sort of vaguely interconnected-but-not-really future universe of KSR books the terraforming effort on Mars maybe collapsed in on itself and had to be radically scaled back. There are references to "The Crash" in some of the short stories in The Martians. In 2312 the solar system is colonized and human affairs are largely run by quantum AI thingys but that book also deals with the importance of Earth's biosphere and things like rewilding.
I agree that there are elements of political naiveite in Ministry but one of the key plot points of the book is leveraging the (undemocratic) power of both the large central reserve banks and the $300billion reinsurance industry to effect large scale change. I can see that part working once the people who fall in the venn diagram of super rich but also care about their kids' future starts to get hit hard enough by climate change impacts, which seems to be happening now.
posted by Wretch729 at 8:40 AM on September 9, 2021 [2 favorites]
In interviews Robinson has also repeatedly emphasized how difficult colonizing Mars would actually be; he has mentioned for instance that since he wrote the Mars Trilogy it has been discovered that there is much less nitrogen on Mars than hoped, and the surface is covered in toxic perchlorates, both facts that make colonization much harder.
It does seem like in the sort of vaguely interconnected-but-not-really future universe of KSR books the terraforming effort on Mars maybe collapsed in on itself and had to be radically scaled back. There are references to "The Crash" in some of the short stories in The Martians. In 2312 the solar system is colonized and human affairs are largely run by quantum AI thingys but that book also deals with the importance of Earth's biosphere and things like rewilding.
I agree that there are elements of political naiveite in Ministry but one of the key plot points of the book is leveraging the (undemocratic) power of both the large central reserve banks and the $300billion reinsurance industry to effect large scale change. I can see that part working once the people who fall in the venn diagram of super rich but also care about their kids' future starts to get hit hard enough by climate change impacts, which seems to be happening now.
posted by Wretch729 at 8:40 AM on September 9, 2021 [2 favorites]
It's frustrating that this article doesn't focus on the major petrochemical facilities-- the ones that are causing the climate disaster-- that were hit by Ida.
It s frustrating that this article won't discuss the major petrochemical expansions that the USA has planned for areas of Louisiana, and the Louisiana residents trying to stop it
Why can't journalism focus on the companies making the climate change?
posted by eustatic at 2:07 PM on September 9, 2021
It s frustrating that this article won't discuss the major petrochemical expansions that the USA has planned for areas of Louisiana, and the Louisiana residents trying to stop it
Why can't journalism focus on the companies making the climate change?
posted by eustatic at 2:07 PM on September 9, 2021
But! You can! Tell us about it, eustatic. I'll read your links.
posted by aniola at 6:05 PM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by aniola at 6:05 PM on September 9, 2021 [1 favorite]
reading furnace.heart' comment on aspects of Bio terrorism are interesting concerning this subject. for example the poisoning of food can have a reverse effect of others using counterterrorism to infect more food supply an example, a Michigan man several years ago was caught actually poisoning produce at several grocery stores later arrested by the FBI. but that wasn't terrorism. nonetheless the asymmetrical aspects would be different desperate scale that is something not to be ignored. I too have noticed a change in weather even in Michigan. for example I know a h u a c guy whose business is booming and he just can't keep up and this is statewide and this is not all just repair but new installations and what's more interesting is new installations on existing homes not new buildings themselves. I think the real question for me is it whether nations are constitutionally capable of actually acting on these things something I really can't answer so I'm going to actually just read a poem and yeah.
toxic waste poison air Beach goo eroded roads draw Nations together whereas magnanimous platitude and sweet semblance ease each Nation back into its comfort or despair global crises promote internationalist gettings together problems the best procedure whether they be in poet warps whose energy must be found and let work or in the high windings of sulfur dioxide I say to my students prize your flaws defects behold your accidents engage your negative criticisms there are materials on your ongoing from these places you imagine find or make the ways back to all of us the figure keeping the aberrant periphery worked clear so the central current May shift or slow or rouse adjusting to the necessary dynamic in our error the defining energies of cure errancy finds suffering otherwise but no use to linger over beauty or simple effect this is just a poem with a job to do and that is declare however roundabout sideways or meanderlingly or in those ways the perfect scientific and materialistic notion of the spindle of energy when energy is gross Rock like it resembles the gross and when fine it mists away into mystical refinements sometimes passes right out of material recognizability and becomes what? motion spirit all forms translated into energy as at the bottom of Dante's hell all motion is translated into form so in value systems physical systems artistic systems always the same disposition from the heavy to the light and when the returns from the light downward to the staid gross Stone to wind wind to Stone there's no need for outside hegemonic derivations of value nothing to be invented or imposed the aesthetic scientific moral are all organized like a muff among this spindle might as well relax thus the job done the mind having found its way through and marked out the course the intellect can be put by one concern to tongue crotch navel armpit Rock slit roseate rear end and consider the perfumeries of slick exchange heavy breathing slouchy mouth the mix means by which we stay attentive and keep to the round of our ongoing you wake up throwing away and accommodation becomes the name of your game getting back back into the structure of protection caring warmth numbers one of many singles and groups dissensions and cooperations takings and givings the dynamic of survival still the same but why thrown out in the first place because while the prodigal stamps off and returns the father goes from iron directives that drove the sun away to rejoice in tears at his return the safe world of community not safe still needs feelers sent out to test the environment to bring back news or no news the central mover the huge River needs to bend and the sun sent away is doubly welcome home we deprive ourselves of renounce safety to seek greater safety but if we furnish a Divine sanction or theology to the disposition we must not think the Divine sanctions shifts that there is any alteration in the disposition the news an angle of emphasis on the old new religions are surface beliefs the shadows of images trying to construe what needs no belief only born die and if something is born or new then it is not it that is not the it the it is the difference of all the differences the nothingness of all the poised somethings the finest issue of energy in which boulders and dead stars float for what if we otherwise and it turned out to be something damning and demanding strict and fierce preventing and seizing what range of choice would be given up then and what value would our partial remnant choices acquire then with a high wind of whine the garbage truck slowly circling the pyramid rising in the morning and atop The mounds plateau birds circling here and roil alive in winklings of wings denser than the windy Forest shelves and meanwhile the truck already arrived spills it's goods from the back hatch and the birds as in a single computer formed net plunge and celebration hallelujahs of rejoicing the driver gets out of his truck the wanders over to the cliff on the spill looks off from The high point into the rosie fine rising of day the air purer the wings of the birds white and clean as angel food cake holy holy the driver cries and flicks his cigarette in a spiritual swoop that floats and floats before it touches the ground here the driver knows when the consummations gather with the disposal flows out of form where the last translations cast away their immutable bits and scraps splits of steel shivers of bottles and Tumblr here's the gateway to beginning here's the portal of renewing change the bird s*** even melding enrichingly in the debris a loom from The Roots of placenta oh nature the man on the edge of the cardboard laced cliff exclaims that there could be a straight away from the toxic past into the fusion lit reaches of a coming time our sins are so many here heaped shapes given to false matter hamburger meat left out.
-a.r.ammons
posted by clavdivs at 8:53 PM on September 9, 2021
toxic waste poison air Beach goo eroded roads draw Nations together whereas magnanimous platitude and sweet semblance ease each Nation back into its comfort or despair global crises promote internationalist gettings together problems the best procedure whether they be in poet warps whose energy must be found and let work or in the high windings of sulfur dioxide I say to my students prize your flaws defects behold your accidents engage your negative criticisms there are materials on your ongoing from these places you imagine find or make the ways back to all of us the figure keeping the aberrant periphery worked clear so the central current May shift or slow or rouse adjusting to the necessary dynamic in our error the defining energies of cure errancy finds suffering otherwise but no use to linger over beauty or simple effect this is just a poem with a job to do and that is declare however roundabout sideways or meanderlingly or in those ways the perfect scientific and materialistic notion of the spindle of energy when energy is gross Rock like it resembles the gross and when fine it mists away into mystical refinements sometimes passes right out of material recognizability and becomes what? motion spirit all forms translated into energy as at the bottom of Dante's hell all motion is translated into form so in value systems physical systems artistic systems always the same disposition from the heavy to the light and when the returns from the light downward to the staid gross Stone to wind wind to Stone there's no need for outside hegemonic derivations of value nothing to be invented or imposed the aesthetic scientific moral are all organized like a muff among this spindle might as well relax thus the job done the mind having found its way through and marked out the course the intellect can be put by one concern to tongue crotch navel armpit Rock slit roseate rear end and consider the perfumeries of slick exchange heavy breathing slouchy mouth the mix means by which we stay attentive and keep to the round of our ongoing you wake up throwing away and accommodation becomes the name of your game getting back back into the structure of protection caring warmth numbers one of many singles and groups dissensions and cooperations takings and givings the dynamic of survival still the same but why thrown out in the first place because while the prodigal stamps off and returns the father goes from iron directives that drove the sun away to rejoice in tears at his return the safe world of community not safe still needs feelers sent out to test the environment to bring back news or no news the central mover the huge River needs to bend and the sun sent away is doubly welcome home we deprive ourselves of renounce safety to seek greater safety but if we furnish a Divine sanction or theology to the disposition we must not think the Divine sanctions shifts that there is any alteration in the disposition the news an angle of emphasis on the old new religions are surface beliefs the shadows of images trying to construe what needs no belief only born die and if something is born or new then it is not it that is not the it the it is the difference of all the differences the nothingness of all the poised somethings the finest issue of energy in which boulders and dead stars float for what if we otherwise and it turned out to be something damning and demanding strict and fierce preventing and seizing what range of choice would be given up then and what value would our partial remnant choices acquire then with a high wind of whine the garbage truck slowly circling the pyramid rising in the morning and atop The mounds plateau birds circling here and roil alive in winklings of wings denser than the windy Forest shelves and meanwhile the truck already arrived spills it's goods from the back hatch and the birds as in a single computer formed net plunge and celebration hallelujahs of rejoicing the driver gets out of his truck the wanders over to the cliff on the spill looks off from The high point into the rosie fine rising of day the air purer the wings of the birds white and clean as angel food cake holy holy the driver cries and flicks his cigarette in a spiritual swoop that floats and floats before it touches the ground here the driver knows when the consummations gather with the disposal flows out of form where the last translations cast away their immutable bits and scraps splits of steel shivers of bottles and Tumblr here's the gateway to beginning here's the portal of renewing change the bird s*** even melding enrichingly in the debris a loom from The Roots of placenta oh nature the man on the edge of the cardboard laced cliff exclaims that there could be a straight away from the toxic past into the fusion lit reaches of a coming time our sins are so many here heaped shapes given to false matter hamburger meat left out.
-a.r.ammons
posted by clavdivs at 8:53 PM on September 9, 2021
Petrochemical facilities aren't causing climate change in any notable way. They are mostly processing carbon from one non-atmospheric form (ethane and naptha) to another (various finished products). One of the largest petrochemical applications is fertilizer and that of course removes carbon to the extent that it facilitates plants absorbing more CO2 from the atmospshere.
posted by MattD at 8:55 AM on September 10, 2021
posted by MattD at 8:55 AM on September 10, 2021
MattD, you should look up the EPA flight data for CF industries, which would tell a different story. I would argue that part of the business model for CF industries is the Petro chemical agricultural system, which destroys our soil nationwide, as well as our food in the Gulf of Mexico.
This system and cycle of death is propped up by the US farm bill, and the Farm Bureau lobby. Because the US doesn't examines or promote rural labor, much less Black rural America, the impacts are off the balance sheet
Part of the Obama era deep decarbonization plan was returning the land to soil, and trees, rather than produce corns and beans without end, as an export commodity.
This issue with the Obama plan is, as farmers say, water is heavy, manure is heavy. So We know how to change, and implement this, but farm labor is so devalued in the US, that Petro agriculture seems economically inevitable. if you ignore farm labor, and people hurt by climate change, from your economic model. Those people affected tend to look a certain way, and are discriminated against in the USA, and the climate SIT modules reflect that discrimination.
look at CF Industries, built on a plantation, having captured and subjugated the city of Donaldsonville to its ends. The children are sick, their faces peeling from the ammonia pumped into the air. Because Black prosperity doesn't matter to the US, the Petro agricultural system, and CF industries carbon emissions, are subsidized by their lungs.
Instead of changing course, helping people out of this realm of sickness and subjugation, we just got hit with another hurricane, which is causing an enormous petrochemical disaster EPA is again ifnoring. And we have to endure another endless round of comments about how the gulf coast doesn't deserve to exist.
No one questions whether it was wise to build fragile Petro chemical facilities on these plantations; or discusses their engineering standards are up to hurricanes. They build cheap and build back cheaper, because the pollution doesn't matter.
And you could say the same for various other chemical manufacturing commodity chains. We on the gulf coast, our prosperity and future, is always discounted, because the USA can't examine the companies causing climate change.
I really wish Americans were forced to come down and live next to the facilities that power the DC lobbyists, during hurricane season. The economic models would change.
But because most of the people who live next to these facilities are in just two states, and they are a certain color, or speak a certain language, there isn't the reporting done on the facilities needed to examine whether they make cost benefit.
Just move these facilities off the plantations in Louisiana, and watch the economic models change, just watch the social licenses change, watch the SIT modelling change.
posted by eustatic at 8:11 AM on September 11, 2021
This system and cycle of death is propped up by the US farm bill, and the Farm Bureau lobby. Because the US doesn't examines or promote rural labor, much less Black rural America, the impacts are off the balance sheet
Part of the Obama era deep decarbonization plan was returning the land to soil, and trees, rather than produce corns and beans without end, as an export commodity.
This issue with the Obama plan is, as farmers say, water is heavy, manure is heavy. So We know how to change, and implement this, but farm labor is so devalued in the US, that Petro agriculture seems economically inevitable. if you ignore farm labor, and people hurt by climate change, from your economic model. Those people affected tend to look a certain way, and are discriminated against in the USA, and the climate SIT modules reflect that discrimination.
look at CF Industries, built on a plantation, having captured and subjugated the city of Donaldsonville to its ends. The children are sick, their faces peeling from the ammonia pumped into the air. Because Black prosperity doesn't matter to the US, the Petro agricultural system, and CF industries carbon emissions, are subsidized by their lungs.
Instead of changing course, helping people out of this realm of sickness and subjugation, we just got hit with another hurricane, which is causing an enormous petrochemical disaster EPA is again ifnoring. And we have to endure another endless round of comments about how the gulf coast doesn't deserve to exist.
No one questions whether it was wise to build fragile Petro chemical facilities on these plantations; or discusses their engineering standards are up to hurricanes. They build cheap and build back cheaper, because the pollution doesn't matter.
And you could say the same for various other chemical manufacturing commodity chains. We on the gulf coast, our prosperity and future, is always discounted, because the USA can't examine the companies causing climate change.
I really wish Americans were forced to come down and live next to the facilities that power the DC lobbyists, during hurricane season. The economic models would change.
But because most of the people who live next to these facilities are in just two states, and they are a certain color, or speak a certain language, there isn't the reporting done on the facilities needed to examine whether they make cost benefit.
Just move these facilities off the plantations in Louisiana, and watch the economic models change, just watch the social licenses change, watch the SIT modelling change.
posted by eustatic at 8:11 AM on September 11, 2021
The other flaw of the current climate modules is that they assume that, generally, no petrochemical infrastructure leaks, or that leak rates are the same nationally.
Which is insane. Look at this picture of Shell NORCO and tell me that is not an insane assumption.
We can see that pipelines, for example, have the highest leak density (per area) on the gulf coast. I ve looked at the issue Per mile, and yes, it s not just that TX and LA have a lot of pipelines (although if you are a state where a lot of pipelines are allowed, I think it does mean there are more leaks, I think we could compare OK and LA to see what that effect is.)
Per mile, pipelines in coastal TX and LA have the worst leak rates in the nation, after the Gulf, the pipelines in the ocean.
When EPA measures emissions on the gulf coast, they find things!
Like how half the hazardous ethylene oxide emissions from the Indorama/Huntsman plant in Port Arthur are from unplanned releases. Half, by volume.
This makes total sense when you consider this facility is 80 years old and has been hit by several hurricanes since 2005.
But EPA doesn't measure methane or carbon emitted. at best, they rely on mass balance modelling developed for the companies' business plan, and, at worst, they reply on permitting information.
What I would propose, is that we actually measure the methane and CO2
Produced, independent from the company's modelling.
posted by eustatic at 10:20 AM on September 11, 2021
Which is insane. Look at this picture of Shell NORCO and tell me that is not an insane assumption.
We can see that pipelines, for example, have the highest leak density (per area) on the gulf coast. I ve looked at the issue Per mile, and yes, it s not just that TX and LA have a lot of pipelines (although if you are a state where a lot of pipelines are allowed, I think it does mean there are more leaks, I think we could compare OK and LA to see what that effect is.)
Per mile, pipelines in coastal TX and LA have the worst leak rates in the nation, after the Gulf, the pipelines in the ocean.
When EPA measures emissions on the gulf coast, they find things!
Like how half the hazardous ethylene oxide emissions from the Indorama/Huntsman plant in Port Arthur are from unplanned releases. Half, by volume.
This makes total sense when you consider this facility is 80 years old and has been hit by several hurricanes since 2005.
But EPA doesn't measure methane or carbon emitted. at best, they rely on mass balance modelling developed for the companies' business plan, and, at worst, they reply on permitting information.
What I would propose, is that we actually measure the methane and CO2
Produced, independent from the company's modelling.
posted by eustatic at 10:20 AM on September 11, 2021
I live in New Orleans and stayed for Ida and the aftermath. My house is basically ok but didn't have power for 8 days, and lots of people were out longer. It was MISERABLE, and I'm relatively young and healthy. Almost as many people died of the heat afterwards (10) as died in the storm itself (13). It's really, really frustrating that New Orleans doesn't have either solar power or some kind of hydro generator, considering the sun shines all the frickin time and the Mississippi is right there.
Instead we have Entergy, a sinister private company that hired actors to pose as community members supporting their new gas plant, and experienced basically no consequences. Instead of shutting down the grid at a set time when there's a storm, they leave it running, allowing all the transformers to blow. During Ida, which was hard storming for about 10 hours, I could see and hear them popping from my porch. A huge part of the repair time is always replacing those blown transformers.
Also, we get charged for hurricanes. It is literally a line item on our energy bill.
This, though:
The people who build and rebuild on flood plains and in the middle of ecosystems that rely on periodic burns are no different. If you want to make plans you can rely on it.
Ok, no, sorry, this is a bad take. It works OK for cultures who live off the land and have simple housing. It's not compatible with modern city infrastructure and the continuation of city life as we know it. There ARE things that could theoretically happen to make the Gulf Coast safer and more climate resilient (wetlands reconstruction, a shift to renewable energy, a system of dikes and canals like the Netherlands) but those things are never going to happen, because they cost money and they're "liberal", and all the various abuses of the electoral system have put the most mercenary people in power.
posted by Nibbly Fang at 8:31 AM on September 12, 2021 [1 favorite]
Instead we have Entergy, a sinister private company that hired actors to pose as community members supporting their new gas plant, and experienced basically no consequences. Instead of shutting down the grid at a set time when there's a storm, they leave it running, allowing all the transformers to blow. During Ida, which was hard storming for about 10 hours, I could see and hear them popping from my porch. A huge part of the repair time is always replacing those blown transformers.
Also, we get charged for hurricanes. It is literally a line item on our energy bill.
This, though:
The people who build and rebuild on flood plains and in the middle of ecosystems that rely on periodic burns are no different. If you want to make plans you can rely on it.
Ok, no, sorry, this is a bad take. It works OK for cultures who live off the land and have simple housing. It's not compatible with modern city infrastructure and the continuation of city life as we know it. There ARE things that could theoretically happen to make the Gulf Coast safer and more climate resilient (wetlands reconstruction, a shift to renewable energy, a system of dikes and canals like the Netherlands) but those things are never going to happen, because they cost money and they're "liberal", and all the various abuses of the electoral system have put the most mercenary people in power.
posted by Nibbly Fang at 8:31 AM on September 12, 2021 [1 favorite]
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