BC floods
November 17, 2021 2:37 PM Subscribe
Terry Glavin: The scale of the disaster unfolding in B.C. is unprecedented. A summary of the flooding and mudslides unleashed by the "atmospheric river" rainstorm on the weekend, washing out highways and damaging railways, forcing people to evacuate and leaving others trapped. Vancouver, Canada's busiest port, has lost its road and rail connections to the rest of Canada.
The city of Merritt was evacuated on Monday after its wastewater treatment plant failed.
300 people stranded between mudslides near Agassiz were rescued by military helicopter on Monday.
1100 people are stranded in Hope, which is cut off by road in all directions.
Hundreds of volunteers filled sandbags last night to protect the Barrowtown pumping station, which keeps the Sumas Prairie farmland in Abbotsford from being flooded.
The city of Merritt was evacuated on Monday after its wastewater treatment plant failed.
300 people stranded between mudslides near Agassiz were rescued by military helicopter on Monday.
1100 people are stranded in Hope, which is cut off by road in all directions.
Hundreds of volunteers filled sandbags last night to protect the Barrowtown pumping station, which keeps the Sumas Prairie farmland in Abbotsford from being flooded.
Things are feeling apocalyptic here in BC. The heat dome this summer, the fires that resulted from it, and now this flooding.. it feels almost biblical.
Regarding this latest crisis, in Victoria people are panic-buying gas because the single highway 'up-island', toward Nanaimo (called the Malahat), was damaged by flooding and is closed overnight for repairs, and only open in one direction at a time during the day. Gas deliveries come across from Vancouver to Nanaimo then south to Victoria, so Malahat closures are slowing things down. I did a quick trip to Costco in Nanaimo this morning and the cashier said they had 500 people in there within an hour of opening - ~50 people at that time is typical. The highways leading to the rest of the country being closed has people really freaked out.
posted by torisaur at 2:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
Regarding this latest crisis, in Victoria people are panic-buying gas because the single highway 'up-island', toward Nanaimo (called the Malahat), was damaged by flooding and is closed overnight for repairs, and only open in one direction at a time during the day. Gas deliveries come across from Vancouver to Nanaimo then south to Victoria, so Malahat closures are slowing things down. I did a quick trip to Costco in Nanaimo this morning and the cashier said they had 500 people in there within an hour of opening - ~50 people at that time is typical. The highways leading to the rest of the country being closed has people really freaked out.
posted by torisaur at 2:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
If you're like me and not clear on the whole "atmospheric river" thing.
posted by emjaybee at 2:57 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 2:57 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
Mad respect to Hope Pizza Place And everyone on the ground. I don’t know what to say but that Canada’s here and I’ll be donating to relief/rebuild efforts as well as talking to my MP.
Man, climate stuff.
posted by warriorqueen at 3:08 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Man, climate stuff.
posted by warriorqueen at 3:08 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Atmospheric rivers are absolutely wild. See the Great Flood of 1862; Biblical is right:
The event dumped an equivalent of 10 feet (3.0 m) of rainfall in California, in the form of rain and snow, over a period of 43 days.
The entire Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys were inundated. An area about 300 miles (480 km) long, averaging 20 miles (32 km) in width,[21] and covering 5,000 to 6,000 square miles (13,000 to 16,000 km2) was under water.posted by billjings at 3:26 PM on November 17, 2021 [8 favorites]
I'm in Kamloops and the only thing we are cut off from is Vancouver which is disruptive but far from dangerous as we've still got highway connections to Edmonton and Calgary either of which can basically wine and dine the entire province minus the lower mainland. There is a complication that there is a planned multiweek shut down of the Trans Canada Highway east of here currently underway to allow for construction so some redundancy has already been removed from the system. Highway 93 is the two hour detour for that and it also had a mud slide shut it down but I believe it was minor and now resolved.
However for the first time in my life I'm experiencing the bare shelves you see on the news all the time when there is a hurricane warning. People have lost their minds.
1100 people are stranded in Hope, which is cut off by road in all directions.
To put this in perspective there are five independent highways out of Hope. Two of them share the same river valley on opposite sides of the river but otherwise those routes are totally independent using different passes through the mountains. All are washed out or in one case covered with mud slides that are taking more than two days to clear.
Friend of mineis was moving on November 16th from Surrey to the interior. He's currently staying in a hotel at the coast and thanking deity he elected to hire movers instead of renting a truck that he'd be paying by the day to just sit in the parking lot with all his stuff.
The road out of Hope that will open first, highway three, is only partially twinned with many long sections of single lane both directions. It however doesn't directly connect to the Trans Canada and the connecting north/south routes (5A and 97) are of even lower capacity being basically rural servicing roads. It's going to be nuts on 5A; glad I'm not driving it twice a week anymore. 3 is also quite snowy in the winter. Not as bad as the Coquihalla, which is the main truck route east out of Vancouver, but it also doesn't have the infrastructure the Coq has for travellers and snow removal.
it feels almost biblical.
Murder hornets still apparently hanging around.
posted by Mitheral at 3:32 PM on November 17, 2021 [14 favorites]
However for the first time in my life I'm experiencing the bare shelves you see on the news all the time when there is a hurricane warning. People have lost their minds.
1100 people are stranded in Hope, which is cut off by road in all directions.
To put this in perspective there are five independent highways out of Hope. Two of them share the same river valley on opposite sides of the river but otherwise those routes are totally independent using different passes through the mountains. All are washed out or in one case covered with mud slides that are taking more than two days to clear.
Friend of mine
The road out of Hope that will open first, highway three, is only partially twinned with many long sections of single lane both directions. It however doesn't directly connect to the Trans Canada and the connecting north/south routes (5A and 97) are of even lower capacity being basically rural servicing roads. It's going to be nuts on 5A; glad I'm not driving it twice a week anymore. 3 is also quite snowy in the winter. Not as bad as the Coquihalla, which is the main truck route east out of Vancouver, but it also doesn't have the infrastructure the Coq has for travellers and snow removal.
At least Environment Canada issued a warning last Friday that the atmospheric river was headed towards the coast.It really was understated, at least on the phone app. I wonder if it was under forecast.
it feels almost biblical.
Murder hornets still apparently hanging around.
posted by Mitheral at 3:32 PM on November 17, 2021 [14 favorites]
Just south of the border, we've had a good two weeks of heavy rain. Parts of Washington State were hit by severe flooding, as well. A 37ft/11m flood wall only built two years ago in Mt Vernon was nearly breached. Mudslides shut down I-5 and caused rail closures along Puget Sound and a train car derailing in Sumas, south of Abbotsford.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:43 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:43 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
Also I don't think Highway 3 can handle the 53' doubles that can use the Coquihalla. There is a hair pin on the highway just outside of Princeton that would be interesting at any rate.
posted by Mitheral at 3:46 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 3:46 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
I live in the PNW not far from Vancouver as the bird or plane flies and that storm was intense and not normal. It was bad enough that it finally made me find and dig out my Xtra-Tuff boots, charge up all the batteries, fill the water jugs and get my rain and survival stuff in order.
We're used to rain and heavy winds but not things like tornado warnings. In Kitsap county I have heard that they activated E911 emergency alerts and even used the Tsunami warning sirens to try to get the word out about the tornado watch and full on warning.
Since we get so much rain here it's not uncommon that I check the local weather radar at least once a day if not multiple times a day and I've never, ever seen fronts and squall lines that were that narrow, tightly packed and with clearly defined tightly wound supercells peppered through them like strings of Christmas lights.
I don't think I've ever seen rain that heavy or sustained in about 15 years of PNW living, and I'm technically in a rain shadow. Sometimes we get heavy rain but it's in short bursts. And, of course, it rains a lot around here but it's usually a persistent and endless mist and drizzle. We're not used to monsoon grade rains for days on end.
The sustained winds we were getting were easily hitting 50+ mph, which isn't unheard of this time of year, but it's uncommon we get like 4-5 days of those kinds of winds in a row. I'm honestly surprised we didn't get some major tree falls on the property or neighborhood, but we did get some big branches and deadfall action.
We're also used to power outages around here due to high winds but at the peak of it something like 60-70% of the local area was without power for as much as 48 hours.
I just checked the outage map and if it's accurate power has been restored to anyone who cares enough to report it but I've never seen the outage map with that many outages in the 7 years that I've been here.
I also just biked into town on the local trail and I've never seen it so covered in branches, limbs and other small stuff, but in addition to that there were three different large trees still down across the trail as well as signs of about eight other smaller ones that have been recently cleared. Usually these are cleared in 12-24 hours by the local trail sponsors and volunteers. And I saw power company line crews still out there working on lines.
Hyper-locally we got off easy. We had one of those tarp-and-frame carpark structures that got blown out and a few trash cans that were in a shelter got sucked out and spread recycling all over the place which was annoying but small. And we're not in a flood prone area and the relatively mild hill we're on should be shallow, rocky and well rooted enough to resist landslides, but it sure was nerve wracking listening to the old house moaning, creaking and popping in the wind and basically making it impossible to try to listen for shifting and movement.
And then the reports about what was going on in Vancouver started rolling in and I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was this bad, and it doesn't bode well for future weather weirding and climate issues.
posted by loquacious at 3:48 PM on November 17, 2021 [32 favorites]
We're used to rain and heavy winds but not things like tornado warnings. In Kitsap county I have heard that they activated E911 emergency alerts and even used the Tsunami warning sirens to try to get the word out about the tornado watch and full on warning.
Since we get so much rain here it's not uncommon that I check the local weather radar at least once a day if not multiple times a day and I've never, ever seen fronts and squall lines that were that narrow, tightly packed and with clearly defined tightly wound supercells peppered through them like strings of Christmas lights.
I don't think I've ever seen rain that heavy or sustained in about 15 years of PNW living, and I'm technically in a rain shadow. Sometimes we get heavy rain but it's in short bursts. And, of course, it rains a lot around here but it's usually a persistent and endless mist and drizzle. We're not used to monsoon grade rains for days on end.
The sustained winds we were getting were easily hitting 50+ mph, which isn't unheard of this time of year, but it's uncommon we get like 4-5 days of those kinds of winds in a row. I'm honestly surprised we didn't get some major tree falls on the property or neighborhood, but we did get some big branches and deadfall action.
We're also used to power outages around here due to high winds but at the peak of it something like 60-70% of the local area was without power for as much as 48 hours.
I just checked the outage map and if it's accurate power has been restored to anyone who cares enough to report it but I've never seen the outage map with that many outages in the 7 years that I've been here.
I also just biked into town on the local trail and I've never seen it so covered in branches, limbs and other small stuff, but in addition to that there were three different large trees still down across the trail as well as signs of about eight other smaller ones that have been recently cleared. Usually these are cleared in 12-24 hours by the local trail sponsors and volunteers. And I saw power company line crews still out there working on lines.
Hyper-locally we got off easy. We had one of those tarp-and-frame carpark structures that got blown out and a few trash cans that were in a shelter got sucked out and spread recycling all over the place which was annoying but small. And we're not in a flood prone area and the relatively mild hill we're on should be shallow, rocky and well rooted enough to resist landslides, but it sure was nerve wracking listening to the old house moaning, creaking and popping in the wind and basically making it impossible to try to listen for shifting and movement.
And then the reports about what was going on in Vancouver started rolling in and I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was this bad, and it doesn't bode well for future weather weirding and climate issues.
posted by loquacious at 3:48 PM on November 17, 2021 [32 favorites]
Regarding this latest crisis, in Victoria people are panic-buying gas because the single highway 'up-island', toward Nanaimo (called the Malahat), was damaged by flooding and is closed overnight for repairs, and only open in one direction at a time during the day. Gas deliveries come across from Vancouver to Nanaimo then south to Victoria, so Malahat closures are slowing things down.
This is because BC Ferries Dangerous goods sailing is to Nanaimo. I believe that is strictly a scheduling thing rather than any physical limitation and that ferry can just as easily dock at Pat Bay (Victoria) if the Malahat was to be closed for an extended period. Only useful of course if you can get gas to the terminals on the mainland.
posted by Mitheral at 3:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
This is because BC Ferries Dangerous goods sailing is to Nanaimo. I believe that is strictly a scheduling thing rather than any physical limitation and that ferry can just as easily dock at Pat Bay (Victoria) if the Malahat was to be closed for an extended period. Only useful of course if you can get gas to the terminals on the mainland.
posted by Mitheral at 3:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
"People are stranded in Hope" pretty astute about the whole fucking world ATM, but damn that shit in B.C. looks... not good.
posted by tzikeh at 3:55 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by tzikeh at 3:55 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
This is what we get with 1.2 degrees of climate change.
This is why the IPCC talks about 1.5 as the goal for limiting dangerous temperature rise. The impacts are exponentially worse for every 0.1 degree of warming.
We have almost no chance of limiting warming to 1.5.
Current pledges put us on track to 2.4.
Current polities put us on track to 2.7.
Current actions put us on track to 3+.
Well, shit.
posted by happyinmotion at 4:06 PM on November 17, 2021 [85 favorites]
This is why the IPCC talks about 1.5 as the goal for limiting dangerous temperature rise. The impacts are exponentially worse for every 0.1 degree of warming.
We have almost no chance of limiting warming to 1.5.
Current pledges put us on track to 2.4.
Current polities put us on track to 2.7.
Current actions put us on track to 3+.
Well, shit.
posted by happyinmotion at 4:06 PM on November 17, 2021 [85 favorites]
What I find interesting is how long this event took to get on to the news (and then to Metafilter).
I'll cop to being a bit of a weather nut, but this storm was on my radar so to speak from around the 8th of November (Monday). The European weather model (ECMWF) was forecasting it at least that far ahead of time. By Thursday, all major weather models were consistently calling for major precipitation event and high freezing levels. Friday was the first wave, and the main storm was Saturday through Monday (depending on where you were... I'm in Alberta, the Canadian Rockies received nearly a meter of snow above 2000m from Friday through Monday night). On Friday, all of the lower mainland had major rainfall warnings. The major mudslides and highway damage was Sunday.
On Monday I'm shocked that my colleagues haven't heard about this. The Globe and Mail (national newspaper) kept covering this as a minor regional story as late as Tuesday (it dominated their pages today). People who were airlifted from the highway that was cut off near Agassiz spent Sunday night in their vehicles hoping no new mudslides would hit them directly, and the airlift was Monday.
But this is a huge deal. Every road connecting Vancouver and its suburbs and exurbs to the rest of Canada was out. The Trans-Canada highway, the Coquihalla (the main divided highway connecting the Lower Mainland to points East), highways 3 and 7 -- all washed away or cutoff by mudslides. There's a much less traveled road that goes North to Whistler and then over the mountains to Kamloops called the Duffey: cut off by a mudslide.
Major damage to all of these: it will take at least a year to fix some of it (great photos in the Atlantic piece). The Lower Mainland farm areas account for 50% of the milk and butter consumption for the entire province, and much of that was underwater -- shelves are emptying out all over the province. Vancouver is the major Pacific port for the whole country, and all railway connections are temporarily cut (though I understand that railways are faster to re-establish than roads).
What about warnings? As I said, this event was forecast a week ahead of time. By Friday there were major rainfall warnings. None of that made a difference: I guess if you're in coastal BC in November a rainfall warning is pretty par for the course, shrug and put on your wellies. The flooding and mudslides/debris flows, though, that required better communication to be sure.
Look to windward, there are more rains forecast...
posted by bumpkin at 4:09 PM on November 17, 2021 [24 favorites]
I'll cop to being a bit of a weather nut, but this storm was on my radar so to speak from around the 8th of November (Monday). The European weather model (ECMWF) was forecasting it at least that far ahead of time. By Thursday, all major weather models were consistently calling for major precipitation event and high freezing levels. Friday was the first wave, and the main storm was Saturday through Monday (depending on where you were... I'm in Alberta, the Canadian Rockies received nearly a meter of snow above 2000m from Friday through Monday night). On Friday, all of the lower mainland had major rainfall warnings. The major mudslides and highway damage was Sunday.
On Monday I'm shocked that my colleagues haven't heard about this. The Globe and Mail (national newspaper) kept covering this as a minor regional story as late as Tuesday (it dominated their pages today). People who were airlifted from the highway that was cut off near Agassiz spent Sunday night in their vehicles hoping no new mudslides would hit them directly, and the airlift was Monday.
But this is a huge deal. Every road connecting Vancouver and its suburbs and exurbs to the rest of Canada was out. The Trans-Canada highway, the Coquihalla (the main divided highway connecting the Lower Mainland to points East), highways 3 and 7 -- all washed away or cutoff by mudslides. There's a much less traveled road that goes North to Whistler and then over the mountains to Kamloops called the Duffey: cut off by a mudslide.
Major damage to all of these: it will take at least a year to fix some of it (great photos in the Atlantic piece). The Lower Mainland farm areas account for 50% of the milk and butter consumption for the entire province, and much of that was underwater -- shelves are emptying out all over the province. Vancouver is the major Pacific port for the whole country, and all railway connections are temporarily cut (though I understand that railways are faster to re-establish than roads).
What about warnings? As I said, this event was forecast a week ahead of time. By Friday there were major rainfall warnings. None of that made a difference: I guess if you're in coastal BC in November a rainfall warning is pretty par for the course, shrug and put on your wellies. The flooding and mudslides/debris flows, though, that required better communication to be sure.
Look to windward, there are more rains forecast...
posted by bumpkin at 4:09 PM on November 17, 2021 [24 favorites]
It seems like Bruce Sterling’s Heavy Weather is ten years ahead of schedule.
posted by interogative mood at 4:16 PM on November 17, 2021 [12 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:16 PM on November 17, 2021 [12 favorites]
By Friday there were major rainfall warnings.
Either the people responsible hadn't thought it through or it was communicated effectively. I was that Vancouver/Fraser valley was going to see an inch or two of rain on Enviroment Canada's weather app but there was nothing that I recall about potential road closures like there is whenever (a dozen times a winter) a heavy snowfall is expected.
I actually wrote up a check in post for Meta on Monday but didn't submit as I thought that Metafilter is so US centric that this is basically a backwater story that is immediately affecting so few members. The effects are going to be felt across Canada (and the US to a lesser extent as the pick up some slack) of course but in a much more slo-mo way than say a California Earthquake or Texas Hurricane.
posted by Mitheral at 4:22 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
Either the people responsible hadn't thought it through or it was communicated effectively. I was that Vancouver/Fraser valley was going to see an inch or two of rain on Enviroment Canada's weather app but there was nothing that I recall about potential road closures like there is whenever (a dozen times a winter) a heavy snowfall is expected.
I actually wrote up a check in post for Meta on Monday but didn't submit as I thought that Metafilter is so US centric that this is basically a backwater story that is immediately affecting so few members. The effects are going to be felt across Canada (and the US to a lesser extent as the pick up some slack) of course but in a much more slo-mo way than say a California Earthquake or Texas Hurricane.
posted by Mitheral at 4:22 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
It seems like Bruce Sterling’s Heavy Weather is ten years ahead of schedule.
I may have picked a bad time to read The Ministry for the Future.
posted by Sphinx at 4:23 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
I may have picked a bad time to read The Ministry for the Future.
posted by Sphinx at 4:23 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
I am heartbroken for the people affected and killed by the flooding. It’s really close to where I grew up and I have never seen anything like it in my lifetime. I had to turn off CBC Radio today because they kept talking about the deaths of all the farm animals and I just can’t handle it right now. We have friends who were supposed to be on the highway home when the landslides happened and I am so, so glad they delayed. They’re stuck in Hope, but at least they are safe.
The panic buying hit my city yesterday. Costco was swarmed and cleared of meat, produce, toilet paper, and frozen food. The grocery stores had lineups out to the parking lots. Even though I know it’s not necessary or good to panic buy, just the second hand reports of empty shelves from friends and students and on the news were driving my anxiety up. I admit I did count our remaining rolls of toilet paper.
Even taking COVID into account, everything has just felt more out of control than usual here in BC since the heat dome this summer when 600 people died in like 4 days. It’s really hitting home for people who would much rather be in denial: this is what climate crisis looks like.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 4:27 PM on November 17, 2021 [19 favorites]
The panic buying hit my city yesterday. Costco was swarmed and cleared of meat, produce, toilet paper, and frozen food. The grocery stores had lineups out to the parking lots. Even though I know it’s not necessary or good to panic buy, just the second hand reports of empty shelves from friends and students and on the news were driving my anxiety up. I admit I did count our remaining rolls of toilet paper.
Even taking COVID into account, everything has just felt more out of control than usual here in BC since the heat dome this summer when 600 people died in like 4 days. It’s really hitting home for people who would much rather be in denial: this is what climate crisis looks like.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 4:27 PM on November 17, 2021 [19 favorites]
The harbor is still functioning , yes?
I hope there’s a vessel loaded with ?railroad parts and vegetables? in Seattle aiming north, but I don’t see any news about it.
posted by clew at 4:28 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
I hope there’s a vessel loaded with ?railroad parts and vegetables? in Seattle aiming north, but I don’t see any news about it.
posted by clew at 4:28 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Richard Zussman:
Highway 3 will be open by the weekend. No update yet on Hwy 99 re-opening. Work continues on Malahat with overnight work.posted by russilwvong at 4:42 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Once the highways open it will be ESSENTIAL TRAVEL ONLY. The province will have related laws in place linked to state of emergency.
What about warnings?
That's what I'm wondering! Did Environment Canada significantly under-predict the amount of rainfall or did they predict correctly and no-one in the provincial government realized that so much rain would cause big problems and they should probably close some highways and warn people about the flood risk? Something went wrong.
This is climate change. I hope that after this year, we get serious about our own emissions (which are rising rapidly in recent years) and the significant amounts of fossil fuels we export (coal and gas) and our unhinged plans to export even more. We love to pat ourselves on the back in BC about our climate policy, but the reality is that we're among the worst in the world.
posted by ssg at 4:44 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
That's what I'm wondering! Did Environment Canada significantly under-predict the amount of rainfall or did they predict correctly and no-one in the provincial government realized that so much rain would cause big problems and they should probably close some highways and warn people about the flood risk? Something went wrong.
This is climate change. I hope that after this year, we get serious about our own emissions (which are rising rapidly in recent years) and the significant amounts of fossil fuels we export (coal and gas) and our unhinged plans to export even more. We love to pat ourselves on the back in BC about our climate policy, but the reality is that we're among the worst in the world.
posted by ssg at 4:44 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
I may have picked a bad time to read The Ministry for the Future.
Yeah, two pages in I decided I didn't need to read my copy at the moment.
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 5:10 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
Yeah, two pages in I decided I didn't need to read my copy at the moment.
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 5:10 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
For those not aware, Canada broke its heat record this year going 121.3 F (49.6 C) for three straight days in Lytton.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 17, 2021 [13 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 17, 2021 [13 favorites]
For those not aware, Canada broke its heat record this year going 121.3 F (49.6 C) for three straight days in Lytton.
I had I guess naively thought we’d see the effects of climate change first in the mid-latitude countries - for some reason, I thought the more northern and southern areas would be less affected, or affected later. If someone who knows more than me is here, please pipe in.
To everyone affected by this — my heart felt concern. Stay safe.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:26 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
I had I guess naively thought we’d see the effects of climate change first in the mid-latitude countries - for some reason, I thought the more northern and southern areas would be less affected, or affected later. If someone who knows more than me is here, please pipe in.
To everyone affected by this — my heart felt concern. Stay safe.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:26 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
This was like the heat dome all over again: the government never prepared anyone for what was about to hit, and while forecasts are fine you really need the authorities to come out and also push the level of risk. Then the govt came out and tried to dump this back on the communities and individuals, and our premier disappeared to give a fireside chat at some event, only to appear after 48 hours of people asking for a declaration of emergency.
But they are arresting people protesting cutting old growth forest and shouting at them, so their fingers are clearly on the pulse of what needs to be done.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 5:28 PM on November 17, 2021 [20 favorites]
But they are arresting people protesting cutting old growth forest and shouting at them, so their fingers are clearly on the pulse of what needs to be done.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 5:28 PM on November 17, 2021 [20 favorites]
I had I guess naively thought we’d see the effects of climate change first in the mid-latitude countries
We did.
posted by bashing rocks together at 5:33 PM on November 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
We did.
posted by bashing rocks together at 5:33 PM on November 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
Killjoy here: The first chapter of The Ministry for the Future was shocking and engaging, while the rest of the book lacks character development and plot, and as such, turns into sort of a preachy boring alt-left wish list. Yay, they sort of save the environment. And they're all boring authoritarian green assholes with no sense of humor. Ah hum.
posted by metametamind at 5:43 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by metametamind at 5:43 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
I'm in Victoria - it's crazy here tonight - hundreds of people trying to buy gas at the same time - traffic jams everywhere. It feels apocalyptic.
posted by hoodrich at 5:55 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by hoodrich at 5:55 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
CN's COO: "We’ve had the railroad out of service getting to Vancouver since Sunday afternoon. Quite frankly, we’ll probably be out a couple more days."
posted by russilwvong at 6:12 PM on November 17, 2021
posted by russilwvong at 6:12 PM on November 17, 2021
I had I guess naively thought we’d see the effects of climate change first in the mid-latitude countries
It’s more or less the opposite from what I’ve read. Something with the way ocean and air currents interact, I gather? (Or maybe the equatorial latitudes are also experiencing more severe weather, and it’s the regions in between equatorial and polar that have been the least affected so far? Anyway, I’ve been reading about Arctic permafrost melting and drowning/starving polar bears for a while.)
posted by eviemath at 6:45 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
It’s more or less the opposite from what I’ve read. Something with the way ocean and air currents interact, I gather? (Or maybe the equatorial latitudes are also experiencing more severe weather, and it’s the regions in between equatorial and polar that have been the least affected so far? Anyway, I’ve been reading about Arctic permafrost melting and drowning/starving polar bears for a while.)
posted by eviemath at 6:45 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
Geez, metametamind, you've appropriately induced a metanarrative for me and my disavowed, physical copy of Ministry for the Future. Anyone in PDX want a free copy?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 6:46 PM on November 17, 2021
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 6:46 PM on November 17, 2021
Here's a photo set
not wanting to diminish the reality of anything, but I have learned over the years to be wary of going in close up on the worst stuff when there's a really big event going down, whether a so-called act of god, or of man, or whatever ...
I'm currently in suburban Vancouver about fifty km (thirty miles) from the nearest evacuation zone and the overall feeling is of eerie normality. There's a fender bender down the block, there's a guy wasted on something or other at the back of the parking lot in the strip mall I just walked past. People are out walking their dogs, waiting for the bus, picking up takeout orders. All the regular lights are in the nearby highrises. It's a cool, clear evening. There is zero evidence of panic or catastrophe.
Obviously, the folks in harm's way are in dire need of assistance and support and I trust enough in our govt to feel that effective measures are being taken. Maybe they were slow on the uptake. Maybe they should have seen this coming. Maybe. Meanwhile, the vast majority of us are just doing what we normally do. I suppose the most common concern is for our supply lines, how cut off are we? And, of course, like it was this summer in the wake of heat dome -- what does all of this mean for our future?
posted by philip-random at 6:46 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
not wanting to diminish the reality of anything, but I have learned over the years to be wary of going in close up on the worst stuff when there's a really big event going down, whether a so-called act of god, or of man, or whatever ...
I'm currently in suburban Vancouver about fifty km (thirty miles) from the nearest evacuation zone and the overall feeling is of eerie normality. There's a fender bender down the block, there's a guy wasted on something or other at the back of the parking lot in the strip mall I just walked past. People are out walking their dogs, waiting for the bus, picking up takeout orders. All the regular lights are in the nearby highrises. It's a cool, clear evening. There is zero evidence of panic or catastrophe.
Obviously, the folks in harm's way are in dire need of assistance and support and I trust enough in our govt to feel that effective measures are being taken. Maybe they were slow on the uptake. Maybe they should have seen this coming. Maybe. Meanwhile, the vast majority of us are just doing what we normally do. I suppose the most common concern is for our supply lines, how cut off are we? And, of course, like it was this summer in the wake of heat dome -- what does all of this mean for our future?
posted by philip-random at 6:46 PM on November 17, 2021 [7 favorites]
Ugh, that National Post article. Can't it just focus on the lack of preparedness and need to do better in the future without also railing about the futility of Canada trying to do anything to reduce carbon emissions? I guess it wouldn't be the Post if it could.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:52 PM on November 17, 2021 [12 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:52 PM on November 17, 2021 [12 favorites]
What about warnings? As I said, this event was forecast a week ahead of time. By Friday there were major rainfall warnings. None of that made a difference: I guess if you're in coastal BC in November a rainfall warning is pretty par for the course, shrug and put on your wellies.
As a Vancouverite: Yep. This time of year we get rainfall warnings from Environment Canada pretty regularly (probably every couple of weeks), so I kind of tune them out. It's Vancouver, it rains a lot from October to April, it always has. It wouldn't surprise me if the unfortunate folks who were directly impacted by the slides were of the same mind.
I think the government needs to really find better ways to raise our alert levels. The rainfall warnings I saw for this past weekend were pretty similar to earlier ones from this autumn that didn't cause catastrophic damage. Maybe a colour scale like the one used for forest fire risk.
posted by good in a vacuum at 7:20 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
As a Vancouverite: Yep. This time of year we get rainfall warnings from Environment Canada pretty regularly (probably every couple of weeks), so I kind of tune them out. It's Vancouver, it rains a lot from October to April, it always has. It wouldn't surprise me if the unfortunate folks who were directly impacted by the slides were of the same mind.
I think the government needs to really find better ways to raise our alert levels. The rainfall warnings I saw for this past weekend were pretty similar to earlier ones from this autumn that didn't cause catastrophic damage. Maybe a colour scale like the one used for forest fire risk.
posted by good in a vacuum at 7:20 PM on November 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
(Sorry to geek out for a minute here but I work on some of this stuff)
For anyone wanting to delve into the technical details of atmospheric rivers and climate change, there are number of published academic papers, but here is one specifically on projected changes in the Frasier River Basin, where the current flooding is occurring. That paper predicts a 4-fold increase in frequency of ARs hitting the BC coast by the end of the century.
With regards to changes in mid-latitude weather, there is currently an active debate on whether the warming climate is causing changes in the dynamics of the jetstream, which could increase the frequency of associated extreme weather events - more recent publications suggest this may not actually be the case. Even so, the more direct effects of global warming are causing extreme weather events such as heatwaves to be more severe, last longer and occur over larger areas, due to simple thermodynamical considerations alone.
posted by piyushnz at 7:21 PM on November 17, 2021 [18 favorites]
For anyone wanting to delve into the technical details of atmospheric rivers and climate change, there are number of published academic papers, but here is one specifically on projected changes in the Frasier River Basin, where the current flooding is occurring. That paper predicts a 4-fold increase in frequency of ARs hitting the BC coast by the end of the century.
With regards to changes in mid-latitude weather, there is currently an active debate on whether the warming climate is causing changes in the dynamics of the jetstream, which could increase the frequency of associated extreme weather events - more recent publications suggest this may not actually be the case. Even so, the more direct effects of global warming are causing extreme weather events such as heatwaves to be more severe, last longer and occur over larger areas, due to simple thermodynamical considerations alone.
posted by piyushnz at 7:21 PM on November 17, 2021 [18 favorites]
My elderly folks are in a small town near Princeton (which itself has major flooding) that has been hard hit. They got an evacuation order for their place Sunday night. They used to have a road in front of their place. They now have a raging river. They will not be driving their car out from their place for quite some time. Luckily they have an ATV and are able to get up through the backwoods of their property to another road that has been partially, but not completely washed out. That takes them to the local village. No one is leaving the village because the two other roads out are also either washed out or covered with mudslides. They have no power, no phone, and there's never any cell service there. We didn't hear from them for two days but they finally managed to message us when they were at the local evacuation centre. Luckily their place will not flood (though half the village did, and many of the houses along the river are now gone, along with the road). Also luckily they have a wood stove with plenty of wood, and a stocked freezer with night time temperatures going low enough to keep things freezing even without power, because the gas in the village is running out and the generator will only go as long as there is gas. There is a very small store in the village and the local Facebook group is full of people offering up diapers, pumps and places to stay for those who have been flooded out. My mother sent me a video today which is just unbelievable if you know the area, water rushing around their neighbour's house and all the way up to the gates that used to lead to a long driveway through a forest. People didn't just lose their homes, they lost the land their homes were built on. That land is now a river. It is going to be a long, long time before the infrastructure in the province is rebuilt.
My sister was driving Vancouver to the Okanagan on Sunday. A drive that normally takes 4.5 hours took more than 9. She missed one of the mudslides by about 30 minutes. She says she's been mad at herself ever since for making the drive home, but she heard rain and is from BC, so just thought...rain. Grocery stores near her were bare by Monday.
posted by Cuke at 7:24 PM on November 17, 2021 [16 favorites]
My sister was driving Vancouver to the Okanagan on Sunday. A drive that normally takes 4.5 hours took more than 9. She missed one of the mudslides by about 30 minutes. She says she's been mad at herself ever since for making the drive home, but she heard rain and is from BC, so just thought...rain. Grocery stores near her were bare by Monday.
posted by Cuke at 7:24 PM on November 17, 2021 [16 favorites]
It’s just another way station on the washed out road to the Anthropocene.
posted by No Robots at 7:45 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by No Robots at 7:45 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
Here's a photo set (edited by Metafilter's own kokogiak.)
What is that guy on the bicycle doing? Whatever it is, seems like a terrible idea.
posted by Literaryhero at 8:02 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
What is that guy on the bicycle doing? Whatever it is, seems like a terrible idea.
posted by Literaryhero at 8:02 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
" hundreds of people trying to buy gas at the same time - traffic jams everywhere. It feels apocalyptic."
How possible is it to be without gas, locally? Like, where I live, it's ANNOYING not to have gas available, but it's very possible to walk to a grocery store and a hardware store, and there's transit to Chicago's Loop. (If the grocery store trucks don't have gas, that's a WHOLE different story!) Vancouver port being cut off from the rest of Canada is very, very, very bad, but I'm not 100% clear on how bad it is to have no local gas.
"This time of year we get rainfall warnings from Environment Canada pretty regularly (probably every couple of weeks), so I kind of tune them out."
Yeah, same. I lived on an alluvial river for 12 years, where it flooded EVERY FEBRUARY and EVERY APRIL, regular as clockwork, and if it DIDN'T flood then, the local environment would have been in big trouble. But we got alerts from the National Weather Service relating to INCREDIBLY NORMAL FLOODING all through February and April, and it made people tune out the ACTUAL FLOOD ALERTS in March or June when the flooding was bad and doing property damage. We needed an alert that said "FLOOD! But very normal February floods, take a nap!" and an alert that said "FLOOD! This is a March flood that will destroy everything you love, tell your friends!" It's good to know things are in flood stage and you can't use X bridge! But it's much more useful to know that things are in flood stage NOT DURING FLOOD SEASON.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:21 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
How possible is it to be without gas, locally? Like, where I live, it's ANNOYING not to have gas available, but it's very possible to walk to a grocery store and a hardware store, and there's transit to Chicago's Loop. (If the grocery store trucks don't have gas, that's a WHOLE different story!) Vancouver port being cut off from the rest of Canada is very, very, very bad, but I'm not 100% clear on how bad it is to have no local gas.
"This time of year we get rainfall warnings from Environment Canada pretty regularly (probably every couple of weeks), so I kind of tune them out."
Yeah, same. I lived on an alluvial river for 12 years, where it flooded EVERY FEBRUARY and EVERY APRIL, regular as clockwork, and if it DIDN'T flood then, the local environment would have been in big trouble. But we got alerts from the National Weather Service relating to INCREDIBLY NORMAL FLOODING all through February and April, and it made people tune out the ACTUAL FLOOD ALERTS in March or June when the flooding was bad and doing property damage. We needed an alert that said "FLOOD! But very normal February floods, take a nap!" and an alert that said "FLOOD! This is a March flood that will destroy everything you love, tell your friends!" It's good to know things are in flood stage and you can't use X bridge! But it's much more useful to know that things are in flood stage NOT DURING FLOOD SEASON.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:21 PM on November 17, 2021 [10 favorites]
Highway 7 from Hope is open for essential traffic, allowing the 1100 people stranded in Hope to drive out.
posted by russilwvong at 8:30 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by russilwvong at 8:30 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
Is it common to airlift hundreds of people stranded on a highway? I don't think I've heard of that being done before.
posted by clawsoon at 8:31 PM on November 17, 2021
posted by clawsoon at 8:31 PM on November 17, 2021
The fact remains that Canada’s contribution to the loading of greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere is less than two per cent...from less that 0.5% of the world's population. Oh, National Post,
posted by clawsoon at 8:47 PM on November 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
What is that guy on the bicycle doing?
Why, he goes for a ride along the waterfront every day!
posted by FungusCassetteBicker at 8:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Why, he goes for a ride along the waterfront every day!
posted by FungusCassetteBicker at 8:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Why, he goes for a ride along the waterfront every day!
He is quite sure they would do the same in Amsterdam.
posted by clawsoon at 9:02 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
He is quite sure they would do the same in Amsterdam.
posted by clawsoon at 9:02 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
So, I saw the rainfall warning for the weekend on Thursday, or maybe Friday. I quip that "when they issue a rainfall warning for the Vancouver area you know it's gonna be bad." And reading the text of the warning, it did seem bad! But on Saturday night it seemed like Environment Canada might have oversold it a little. Sunday changed my mind very quickly.
I also feel like every time I talk to my friends in other places it's "Check out this crazy weather thing happening here! Yes, I'm okay. But other people aren't and CLIMATE CHANGE SUCKS."
He is quite sure they would do the same in Amsterdam.
I sent that video to a friend of mine in the Netherlands saying, "just a typical day for a Dutch person, right?"
posted by invokeuse at 9:04 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
I also feel like every time I talk to my friends in other places it's "Check out this crazy weather thing happening here! Yes, I'm okay. But other people aren't and CLIMATE CHANGE SUCKS."
He is quite sure they would do the same in Amsterdam.
I sent that video to a friend of mine in the Netherlands saying, "just a typical day for a Dutch person, right?"
posted by invokeuse at 9:04 PM on November 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
One of my co-workers is trapped in Hope, had to sleep in his car in a truck stop parking lot for two nights before finding a better place to stay, and doesn’t know how many more days before he’ll be able to get home.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:22 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 9:22 PM on November 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
I mean, i get that there are forecasts and all, but what can you possibly do besides evacuate and close roads? You can't re-enforce the major interchange to Vancouver in a week. This will hopefully induce some budgeting stuff next year, and change long term thinking in general. (And I say this as a total climate change believer and weather nut myself)
posted by nevercalm at 9:39 PM on November 17, 2021
posted by nevercalm at 9:39 PM on November 17, 2021
Are you all talking about the classic Dutch children's game "Rising Seas" aka "Don't get crushed by the unmoored barge"?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 9:39 PM on November 17, 2021
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 9:39 PM on November 17, 2021
Is it common to airlift hundreds of people stranded on a highway? I don't think I've heard of that being done before.
1100 is a couple orders of magnitude more in count than usual but it happens. Usually people getting stuck between avalanches. Which can take a long time to clear on smaller roads so they get the people out before they freeze to death.
The slide currently blocking highway 3 is fairly close to the site of the 1965 Hope slide which buried the old highway under 140m (500') of rock and dirt. It was the second largest slide ever recorded in Canada and completely obliterated the lake next to the highway. We didn't even try dig it out, just put a new road over top. Four people who were stopped by a smaller, earlier slide were killed. I'm sure it was on the minds of everyone as a worst case scenario this week.
posted by Mitheral at 9:42 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
1100 is a couple orders of magnitude more in count than usual but it happens. Usually people getting stuck between avalanches. Which can take a long time to clear on smaller roads so they get the people out before they freeze to death.
The slide currently blocking highway 3 is fairly close to the site of the 1965 Hope slide which buried the old highway under 140m (500') of rock and dirt. It was the second largest slide ever recorded in Canada and completely obliterated the lake next to the highway. We didn't even try dig it out, just put a new road over top. Four people who were stopped by a smaller, earlier slide were killed. I'm sure it was on the minds of everyone as a worst case scenario this week.
posted by Mitheral at 9:42 PM on November 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
Evacuation train departs Hope, B.C., bound for Vancouver with 200 passengers
posted by russilwvong at 10:24 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by russilwvong at 10:24 PM on November 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Sikh Volunteers Deliver 3,000 Meals For People Stranded In Canada Floods
posted by Harald74 at 11:05 PM on November 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:05 PM on November 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
I'm in Vancouver and I haven't seen empty grocery store shelves or crazy lines at the gas stations so far. I'm not sure if people in my neighbourhood are being sensible or if the possibility of shortages just hasn't sunk in yet. Or maybe everyone went to Costco to do their panic buying.
The fact that it took two days of heckling for the province to declare a state of emergency is disheartening. We've had one climate disaster after another in BC pretty much nonstop since 2017 -- large swathes of the province lived under a cloud of wildfire smoke all summer, in addition to the heat wave that killed 600 people -- and the government's attitude is still to sit and wait for things to happen and then pass the buck. They'll pat themselves on the back for setting emissions targets for a decade from now, and meanwhile how many thousands of people had to evacuate due to extreme weather events just in the past 6 months?
How possible is it to be without gas, locally?
By North American standards, Vancouver is pretty walkable and has great public transit, though that's less true the further you get from downtown (parts of Surrey, for example, would be annoying to live in without a car). A gas shortage would be rough but survivable. I think that's true of Victoria as well, but I don't live on the Island.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:26 AM on November 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
The fact that it took two days of heckling for the province to declare a state of emergency is disheartening. We've had one climate disaster after another in BC pretty much nonstop since 2017 -- large swathes of the province lived under a cloud of wildfire smoke all summer, in addition to the heat wave that killed 600 people -- and the government's attitude is still to sit and wait for things to happen and then pass the buck. They'll pat themselves on the back for setting emissions targets for a decade from now, and meanwhile how many thousands of people had to evacuate due to extreme weather events just in the past 6 months?
How possible is it to be without gas, locally?
By North American standards, Vancouver is pretty walkable and has great public transit, though that's less true the further you get from downtown (parts of Surrey, for example, would be annoying to live in without a car). A gas shortage would be rough but survivable. I think that's true of Victoria as well, but I don't live on the Island.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:26 AM on November 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
As a Vancouverite: Yep. This time of year we get rainfall warnings from Environment Canada pretty regularly (probably every couple of weeks), so I kind of tune them out. It's Vancouver, it rains a lot from October to April, it always has.
It was nowhere near as bad as what's going on in the Pacific Northwest, but the Boston area had an unexpectedly strong nor'easter few weeks ago with 80mph winds that resulted in hundreds of thousands losing power for several days.
The weather service had issued a "high winds warning" and although the text of the actual forecast did accurately predict how strong/damaging those winds would be and warned of "hurricane strength gusts", high winds warnings are issued whenever things get >40mph and they happen frequently enough that I'd say most people don't even pay attention because who bothers reacting to a "high winds warning"?
I'm beginning to think that our forecasting nomenclature is a little too caught up in taxonomy when it should focus on conveying impacts. That nor'easter did more damage than any hurricane or tropical storm we've had in decades, but because it was just a coastal low pressure system, it got buried behind the mundanity of a "high winds warning" and then surprised everyone.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:26 AM on November 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
It was nowhere near as bad as what's going on in the Pacific Northwest, but the Boston area had an unexpectedly strong nor'easter few weeks ago with 80mph winds that resulted in hundreds of thousands losing power for several days.
The weather service had issued a "high winds warning" and although the text of the actual forecast did accurately predict how strong/damaging those winds would be and warned of "hurricane strength gusts", high winds warnings are issued whenever things get >40mph and they happen frequently enough that I'd say most people don't even pay attention because who bothers reacting to a "high winds warning"?
I'm beginning to think that our forecasting nomenclature is a little too caught up in taxonomy when it should focus on conveying impacts. That nor'easter did more damage than any hurricane or tropical storm we've had in decades, but because it was just a coastal low pressure system, it got buried behind the mundanity of a "high winds warning" and then surprised everyone.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:26 AM on November 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
Ugh, that National Post article. Can't it just focus on the lack of preparedness and need to do better in the future without also railing about the futility of Canada trying to do anything to reduce carbon emissions? I guess it wouldn't be the Post if it could.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:52 PM on November 17
I mean, it's the first thing I've ever read from Terry Glavin that doesn't blame the Chinese government for the problem so... baby steps?
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:28 AM on November 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:52 PM on November 17
I mean, it's the first thing I've ever read from Terry Glavin that doesn't blame the Chinese government for the problem so... baby steps?
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:28 AM on November 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
I'm in Vancouver and I haven't seen empty grocery store shelves
I think the food is in warehouses in the Lower Mainland or coming up from the US into the Lower Mainland and isn't getting to the rest of BC, so the empty shelves seem to be the worst in the rest of the province right now. That said, most of the photos I've seen online seem to be Superstores and their supply chain has been in bad shape for months now, so it's probably a compounding issue, at least for them.
posted by ssg at 7:10 AM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think the food is in warehouses in the Lower Mainland or coming up from the US into the Lower Mainland and isn't getting to the rest of BC, so the empty shelves seem to be the worst in the rest of the province right now. That said, most of the photos I've seen online seem to be Superstores and their supply chain has been in bad shape for months now, so it's probably a compounding issue, at least for them.
posted by ssg at 7:10 AM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
This will hopefully induce some budgeting stuff next year, and change long term thinking in general. (And I say this as a total climate change believer and weather nut myself)
Among the talking heads during last night's CBC news coverage (interviews with mayors of Abbottsford and Hope, for example) they did cut to a person who spoke to the need for a national conversation to identify "high risk" areas, and a national approach to investing in these areas for the weather to come. The scale of investment and the degree to which public authorities would have to step in and curtail e.g. urban development (e.g. phased relocation of neighbourhoods) leaves me thinking we'll fall far short of any meaningful planning.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:25 AM on November 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Among the talking heads during last night's CBC news coverage (interviews with mayors of Abbottsford and Hope, for example) they did cut to a person who spoke to the need for a national conversation to identify "high risk" areas, and a national approach to investing in these areas for the weather to come. The scale of investment and the degree to which public authorities would have to step in and curtail e.g. urban development (e.g. phased relocation of neighbourhoods) leaves me thinking we'll fall far short of any meaningful planning.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:25 AM on November 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm currently reading Kim Stanley Robinson's The Ministry for the Future (a "non-dystopian" view of the climate crisis) and he describes what would happen if a similar atmospheric river hits the sedimentary basin that Los Angeles sits in. I think his estimate of "only" seven thousand deaths or so is wildly optimistic.
Edit: Not the first comment re this book. You should read it if you want an idea of what's coming.
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:58 AM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
Edit: Not the first comment re this book. You should read it if you want an idea of what's coming.
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:58 AM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
What is that guy on the bicycle doing?
Why, he goes for a ride along the waterfront every day!
Oh my God, I would do this.
Wait, I have done this.
posted by loquacious at 8:12 AM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
Why, he goes for a ride along the waterfront every day!
Oh my God, I would do this.
Wait, I have done this.
posted by loquacious at 8:12 AM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
Keep in mind that not having gas for the car is a monumental problem for many people. Even in walkable areas there are many, many people who are disabled just enough that walking to the store and back, let alone carrying things home, is out of the question for them. They may look reasonably fit while they are walking around in the store pushing a cart but there are millions of people who are physically car dependent for complex reasons. Not having gas for them means not getting out of the house.
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:11 AM on November 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:11 AM on November 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
this just came in from a Facebook friend (a former weapons grade punk rocker) who lives within one of the many afflicted areas.
We're fine, high and dry. Trying to stay clear of the zombie apocalypse hordes going spare at local food stores. A mob broke down the doors at Superstore when they shut them because the store was at capacity.
"What are you doing Sunday, Bob?"
"Well, we're going to church and then rioting down to the grocery store ..." Also, many gas stations out of gas and all these rednecks in their Canyonero-size pickups (google search if you don't get his ref.) are going to be on foot shortly.
Is it wrong to enjoy this?
Five Feet High + Rising
posted by philip-random at 10:09 AM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
We're fine, high and dry. Trying to stay clear of the zombie apocalypse hordes going spare at local food stores. A mob broke down the doors at Superstore when they shut them because the store was at capacity.
"What are you doing Sunday, Bob?"
"Well, we're going to church and then rioting down to the grocery store ..." Also, many gas stations out of gas and all these rednecks in their Canyonero-size pickups (google search if you don't get his ref.) are going to be on foot shortly.
Is it wrong to enjoy this?
Five Feet High + Rising
posted by philip-random at 10:09 AM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'm also almost finished with Ministry for the Future and reading this news was uncanny, it was like the book migrated over into current real life. I strongly disagree with upthread criticism of the book-- it's eye opening to the realities we face and highly imaginative in its proposed solutions.
It sort of feels like a derail to be talking about the book while real people are going through this event, but the whole thesis of the book is that climate change is at our front steps, and here we have an example of it. Best of luck to all involved.
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 11:01 AM on November 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
It sort of feels like a derail to be talking about the book while real people are going through this event, but the whole thesis of the book is that climate change is at our front steps, and here we have an example of it. Best of luck to all involved.
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 11:01 AM on November 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
I'm not clear what Glavin wanted the province to do to be more "prepared". The rain fall was unprecedented; the previous record for precip in that amount of time was about two-thirds of what we got this time. In other words, this was half again as bad as the previous worst in 2015. Okay, this is the future. We have to figure out what to do to live here, but I don't see any quick fixes like Glavin seems to think possible. BC is pretty large and, outside the cities, population is spread out. Of course, if Glavin is saying evacuate the Interior and everyone go live in Vancouver, I guess that's a solution.
posted by CCBC at 3:07 PM on November 18, 2021
posted by CCBC at 3:07 PM on November 18, 2021
I'm not clear what Glavin wanted the province to do to be more "prepared". The rain fall was unprecedented; the previous record for precip in that amount of time was about two-thirds of what we got this time.
Looking at Abbotsford, they could have sent out an alert to farmers that Sumas Prairie was likely to flood badly, and that livestock should be moved to higher ground if possible. They could have warned people not to travel and shelter in place. They could have decided not to send several helicopters of RCMP out to arrest people fighting the cutting of old growth forest, just as they were apparently also trying to rescue a metric ton of people stranded because of climate change. They could have declared a state of emergency a day before they did and got the army in faster. And so on.
This government has already had to apologize for around 600 dead people in the heat dome. Lessons were supposed to have been learned about warning people properly about the actual threat to life in situations like this, but apparently not.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 4:13 PM on November 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
Looking at Abbotsford, they could have sent out an alert to farmers that Sumas Prairie was likely to flood badly, and that livestock should be moved to higher ground if possible. They could have warned people not to travel and shelter in place. They could have decided not to send several helicopters of RCMP out to arrest people fighting the cutting of old growth forest, just as they were apparently also trying to rescue a metric ton of people stranded because of climate change. They could have declared a state of emergency a day before they did and got the army in faster. And so on.
This government has already had to apologize for around 600 dead people in the heat dome. Lessons were supposed to have been learned about warning people properly about the actual threat to life in situations like this, but apparently not.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 4:13 PM on November 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
At the three way meet up between the leaders of Mexico, Canada and the USA apparently one of the issues that Trudeau raised was Biden’s cancelation of the Keystone pipeline. Literally people are drowning in BC from a climate catastrophe and yet the spice must flow.
posted by interogative mood at 6:02 PM on November 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:02 PM on November 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
I am surprised that the extent of the immediate damage and the aftermath does not seem to merit front-page coverage on NYTimes or other major non-Canadian media outlets, if only since COP26 only just finished.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:34 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:34 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
(Making the usual exception for the climate crisis-aware Guardian, as we should.)
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:54 PM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:54 PM on November 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
My family in Ireland and the UK have all seen major stories on it, leading to a number of concerned texts and emails, so at least there it's in the news.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 10:19 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by lesbiassparrow at 10:19 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
I flew out of YVR mid-Saturday afternoon and had to spend several hours waiting in SEA for a connection, marveling through a lounge window at the relentless pounding rain. I didn't realize quite how bad the storm I left behind was.
posted by praemunire at 10:44 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by praemunire at 10:44 PM on November 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
I live in Victoria, work at home with significant travel. I was very happy to have flown back home Saturday.
Normally Vancouver Island is a large enough place that most people don't really need to get on or off regularly. I say this as a person who commuted from a Vancouver suburb back to Victoria on the weekends for a decade.
Where these kinds of things are normally impacted a things like:
So this is were we are as people living in the region who happen to have the smallest impact profile: we work at home, we don't need to use the car much usually, we just got home from some extended work related travel and did "the big shop" just before the shitstorm settled in. We have a work trip in December to the eastern seaboard and tickets from V cost double what they would if we had been starting in Vancouver. It's a 12minute flight where the seatbelt sign never turns off because it's all ascent & descent. We had no cell service monday or much of Tuesday as circuits were overloaded with evacuation and rescue efforts. We work remotely over the phone; we don't have a landline. The supply chain disruptions will last months. On top ofall this that the world has been dealing with covid.
I don't know anyone who has been displaced or injured. We have the smallest impact profile. I hope we don't have a power outage because I don't know that we'll be able to replace the groceries we just bought. I am so glad we're not actually flooded and am so grateful for the graces we have benefited from.
posted by mce at 9:26 AM on November 19, 2021 [6 favorites]
Normally Vancouver Island is a large enough place that most people don't really need to get on or off regularly. I say this as a person who commuted from a Vancouver suburb back to Victoria on the weekends for a decade.
Where these kinds of things are normally impacted a things like:
- Mail: next day delivery? Hah! The last 90km from Vancouver requires either an extra flight or a barge
- Got an appointment? Remember to schedule time for the ferry. Or a flight. The ferry takes 95minutes for the sailing, loading & unloading take another 20-30minutes each and using a vehicle might save you transit time but space is limited. If you paid for a reservation you need to be there at least 30minutes early, if you didn't you might sit for a sailing or two which can cost hours to the better part of a day
- Terminals on both sides are dozens of kilometres from "downtown". I love my walkable neighbourhood but neither the airport nor the ferry terminal are part of anyone's walkable neighbourhood. I don't drive so I'm not buying gas but someone is. Usually BC Transit.
- Overlapping with this kind of rain has been the windstorms. The sailings are unpleasant in heavy winds but the docking are often impossible. Anyone who's been stuck on a rocking boat thats been waiting for multiple hours to try and dock will tell you that it's something to avoid with all possible efforts
So this is were we are as people living in the region who happen to have the smallest impact profile: we work at home, we don't need to use the car much usually, we just got home from some extended work related travel and did "the big shop" just before the shitstorm settled in. We have a work trip in December to the eastern seaboard and tickets from V cost double what they would if we had been starting in Vancouver. It's a 12minute flight where the seatbelt sign never turns off because it's all ascent & descent. We had no cell service monday or much of Tuesday as circuits were overloaded with evacuation and rescue efforts. We work remotely over the phone; we don't have a landline. The supply chain disruptions will last months. On top of
I don't know anyone who has been displaced or injured. We have the smallest impact profile. I hope we don't have a power outage because I don't know that we'll be able to replace the groceries we just bought. I am so glad we're not actually flooded and am so grateful for the graces we have benefited from.
posted by mce at 9:26 AM on November 19, 2021 [6 favorites]
According to the latest news stories, there's no timeline for when the railways will be back in operation. The Globe and Mail:
interogative mood: At the three way meet up between the leaders of Mexico, Canada and the USA apparently one of the issues that Trudeau raised was Biden’s cancelation of the Keystone pipeline. Literally people are drowning in BC from a climate catastrophe and yet the spice must flow.
It was actually the existing Line 5 pipeline, which Michigan is trying to shut down. It supplies oil to refineries in the Midwest and Ontario, and propane for home heating to northern Michigan. It looks like it'll be a federal decision.
Looking more towards the future, the headlines here were talking about how Trudeau was pressing Biden to make Canadian-made electric vehicles eligible for the "buy American" EV tax credit, so that auto manufacturers don't move jobs from Canada to the US.
Our global dependence on fossil fuels, especially for transportation and power, is exactly why climate change is such a difficult challenge. BC gets most of its gasoline from Alberta refineries over the Trans Mountain pipeline (not the expansion project, the existing one which opened in 1953). The pipeline was shut down on Sunday because of the flooding, and there's no timeline for when it'll resume operations. The local refinery (in Burnaby) has a two-week supply of oil.
posted by russilwvong at 10:19 AM on November 19, 2021 [3 favorites]
The railways that link Vancouver and the southern part of British Columbia with the rest of the country are expected to remain flood-damaged and impassable for days.A Globe and Mail story on the military rescue of 300 people stranded overnight on a highway between two mudslides. Three helicopters, 311 stranded people, 26 dogs and one cat: How Operation Lentus pulled off a tricky rescue mission on Highway 7. "A broken hydro pole sat less than a metre from one side of the spinning main rotor, and trees were no further away on the other."
Rail lines owned by Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. run along the Fraser River, which spilled its banks and cut off roads, bridges and tracks in this week’s heavy rain and flooding.
Mathieu Gaudreault, a CN spokesperson, said crews are making progress on repairing the railway, but he declined to estimate when the tracks would open.
“Traffic through southern B.C., northbound and eastbound traffic from Vancouver, as well as inbound traffic to Vancouver from east/north of Kamloops are still affected by the situation,” Mr. Gaudreault said.
CP’s tracks between Spence’s Bridge and Falls Creek are blocked as a result of flood damage in several sections, said Salem Woodrow, a CP spokesperson. The washouts have halted freight on CP’s busiest rail corridor, which links Vancouver’s port with shippers of grain, consumer goods and other products.
“There is no time estimate for when service will resume,” Ms. Woodrow said.
interogative mood: At the three way meet up between the leaders of Mexico, Canada and the USA apparently one of the issues that Trudeau raised was Biden’s cancelation of the Keystone pipeline. Literally people are drowning in BC from a climate catastrophe and yet the spice must flow.
It was actually the existing Line 5 pipeline, which Michigan is trying to shut down. It supplies oil to refineries in the Midwest and Ontario, and propane for home heating to northern Michigan. It looks like it'll be a federal decision.
Looking more towards the future, the headlines here were talking about how Trudeau was pressing Biden to make Canadian-made electric vehicles eligible for the "buy American" EV tax credit, so that auto manufacturers don't move jobs from Canada to the US.
Our global dependence on fossil fuels, especially for transportation and power, is exactly why climate change is such a difficult challenge. BC gets most of its gasoline from Alberta refineries over the Trans Mountain pipeline (not the expansion project, the existing one which opened in 1953). The pipeline was shut down on Sunday because of the flooding, and there's no timeline for when it'll resume operations. The local refinery (in Burnaby) has a two-week supply of oil.
posted by russilwvong at 10:19 AM on November 19, 2021 [3 favorites]
Looking more towards the future, the headlines here were talking about how Trudeau was pressing Biden to make Canadian-made electric vehicles eligible for the "buy American" EV tax credit, so that auto manufacturers don't move jobs from Canada to the US.
Canada has a lot of the minerals needed for EV batteries. We'd get a lot out of cross-border cooperation, sidestepping China's control of the market for EV raw materials and moving more quickly to sunset fossil fuel-consuming ICE vehicles.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:37 AM on November 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
Canada has a lot of the minerals needed for EV batteries. We'd get a lot out of cross-border cooperation, sidestepping China's control of the market for EV raw materials and moving more quickly to sunset fossil fuel-consuming ICE vehicles.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:37 AM on November 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
Part of the ev tax credit is for cars produced in Union shops. Probably not the first time that has happened but first time I've heard of it and a cool development in the USA.
posted by Mitheral at 1:27 PM on November 19, 2021
posted by Mitheral at 1:27 PM on November 19, 2021
Gas rationing has been announced for the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island until Dec 1.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 4:05 PM on November 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Gerald Bostock at 4:05 PM on November 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
Those electric car needed minerals — lithium and other rare earths in Canada suffer from the same problem as the deposits in the USA. Mining them has a serious impact on the local environment and mitigating those impacts makes the venture unprofitable vs China’s producers.
posted by interogative mood at 4:31 PM on November 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:31 PM on November 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
Also a lot of those minerals are on Indigenous land. Look at the issues over the pipeline to see how acceptable that is to many bands and nations. Mining for these minerals is just replacing one extractive colonial system with another.
It's worth remembering that Sumas Prairie used to be Sumas Lake before it was drained and given to settlers as land. There's not a lot of issues over land use and the environment in Canada that aren't massively connected to colonial theft and change of landscape without considering the consequences of those actions.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 9:12 AM on November 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
It's worth remembering that Sumas Prairie used to be Sumas Lake before it was drained and given to settlers as land. There's not a lot of issues over land use and the environment in Canada that aren't massively connected to colonial theft and change of landscape without considering the consequences of those actions.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 9:12 AM on November 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
Pipelines are essentially nothing but down side for indigenous people. They don't create jobs or income, they cut up the land, and spills are a given. Mining projects are more likely to get buy in because they can be structured to return benefits to the communities.
posted by Mitheral at 1:49 PM on November 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 1:49 PM on November 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
Not all relationships to land are economic. Some of these places are culturally and religiously important, and mining does serious environmental damage as well as changing the land itself.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 2:59 PM on November 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by lesbiassparrow at 2:59 PM on November 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
About Sumas Prairie/Lake and what happened there.
posted by CCBC at 7:25 PM on November 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by CCBC at 7:25 PM on November 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
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posted by Nelson at 2:54 PM on November 17, 2021 [17 favorites]