‘No evidence’ Omicron less severe than Delta, say UK researchers
December 17, 2021 8:30 PM Subscribe
Why is such ostensibly important information constantly behind a fucking paywall?
posted by deadaluspark at 8:35 PM on December 17, 2021 [73 favorites]
posted by deadaluspark at 8:35 PM on December 17, 2021 [73 favorites]
Archive link:
There are some good graphs of the South African data here: it doesn't so far look like total hospitalisations are worse than earlier waves there. (Though not much better either).
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:46 PM on December 17, 2021 [19 favorites]
“The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection,” said the research team, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease modeller and UK government science adviser.This is pretty early data with a small dataset, so we shouldn't necessarily panic. It could turn out that after hospitalisation things get better for people with Omicron compared to other variants.
However, hospitalisation data “remains very limited at this time”, researchers cautioned...
The findings on severity were based on analysis of 120,000 Delta cases and 15,000 suspected Omicron cases, which found that people infected with Omicron were no more likely to be asymptomatic than those infected with Delta.
This was supported by early evidence that Omicron infections were no less likely than Delta to result in hospitalisation, though this assessment was based on only 24 Omicron hospitalisations compared with more than 1,000 for Delta.
The research team also estimated that Covid booster shots could provide about 85 per cent protection against severe illness from Omicron, and upwards of 90 per cent protection against death from the variant, each at 60 days after the third dose.
There are some good graphs of the South African data here: it doesn't so far look like total hospitalisations are worse than earlier waves there. (Though not much better either).
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:46 PM on December 17, 2021 [19 favorites]
Today I saw a big bunch of particleboard shelving in my building's recycling bins and the fact that I wasn't the least bit surprised and because people are still walking around the lobby and halls without masks means we're fucked.
posted by brachiopod at 8:58 PM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by brachiopod at 8:58 PM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
We have been fools to allow antivaxxers and anti-maskers dictate global public health policy.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [90 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [90 favorites]
This is pretty early data with a small dataset, so we shouldn't necessarily panic. It could turn out that after hospitalisation things get better for people with Omicron compared to other variants.
It's early data with a small dataset, but OTOH there's no real reason to think omicron would be less severe so when the data we have says that it's about the same, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume it's about the same. It's absolutely reasonable to take precautions as though that were the case. There's never really going to be a point where panicking per se is helpful, no matter how contagious or severe it is, because even if that means a period if extreme precautions, the panic is going to wear out faster than the virus will, and leave people going back to doing whatever they're doing again.
posted by aubilenon at 8:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [14 favorites]
It's early data with a small dataset, but OTOH there's no real reason to think omicron would be less severe so when the data we have says that it's about the same, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume it's about the same. It's absolutely reasonable to take precautions as though that were the case. There's never really going to be a point where panicking per se is helpful, no matter how contagious or severe it is, because even if that means a period if extreme precautions, the panic is going to wear out faster than the virus will, and leave people going back to doing whatever they're doing again.
posted by aubilenon at 8:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [14 favorites]
The advice I heard someplace on NPR today was "you need to think about how important these things are to you. That drink social after work? How important is that to you, really? That holiday party? Really really important?"
Basically, it was "stay the fuck at home" lockdown but in a soft way.
posted by hippybear at 9:04 PM on December 17, 2021 [71 favorites]
Basically, it was "stay the fuck at home" lockdown but in a soft way.
posted by hippybear at 9:04 PM on December 17, 2021 [71 favorites]
Darkest timeline, of course it's the worst thing ever.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:14 PM on December 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:14 PM on December 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm personally waiting for the results from Denmark. The UK stopped all precautions five months ago and has been riding a long wave of Delta-fueled cases; South Africa's population distribution and vaccination numbers are drastically different than any part of the US, where I live.
Denmark, though - their cases, prior to this Omicron wave, have been similar to my US state (low), with a similar high vaccination rate using the same vaccines. Their case rate right now with Omicron is basically a vertical line. But their hospitalization nor death rates have not followed the same trajectory. So it's not quite doom and gloom.
posted by meowzilla at 9:32 PM on December 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
Denmark, though - their cases, prior to this Omicron wave, have been similar to my US state (low), with a similar high vaccination rate using the same vaccines. Their case rate right now with Omicron is basically a vertical line. But their hospitalization nor death rates have not followed the same trajectory. So it's not quite doom and gloom.
posted by meowzilla at 9:32 PM on December 17, 2021 [15 favorites]
Here's the actual report that the Financial Times article is based on.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 9:34 PM on December 17, 2021 [16 favorites]
posted by Gerald Bostock at 9:34 PM on December 17, 2021 [16 favorites]
Their case rate right now with Omicron is basically a vertical line. But their hospitalization nor death rates have not followed the same trajectory. So it's not quite doom and gloom.
Hospitalizations typically lag two weeks behind the wave of detections.
posted by hippybear at 9:38 PM on December 17, 2021 [26 favorites]
Hospitalizations typically lag two weeks behind the wave of detections.
posted by hippybear at 9:38 PM on December 17, 2021 [26 favorites]
The focus on hospitalizations completely ignores what is quite likely the more significant burden for most except the elderly — long Covid. We know that a double digit percentage of people who have mild Covid will have long Covid symptoms months later. These people weren't sick enough to end up in the hospital, but many of them will be significantly disabled for months, years or even permanently. Some cases of long Covid are mild, but there are far too many who are still unable to work a year or more later, who have lost their former lives and don't know when or if they will ever get them back.
Right now, we have to assume that long Covid is just as likely with Omicron. We have no reason to believe otherwise. The current wave, with many millions of cases likely just in the UK, could easily lead to more than a million cases of long Covid there. Many of those will recover in time, but others may not. The same story is likely in any country that doesn't take very strong measures right now to control Omicron.
We have to widen the discussion to include more than hospitalization and death. For someone like a 30-year-old in London, which is a demographic with incredibly high case rates right now, death or even hospitalization is highly unlikely, but long Covid is not. We can't keep ignoring the long-term consequences.
posted by ssg at 9:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [97 favorites]
Right now, we have to assume that long Covid is just as likely with Omicron. We have no reason to believe otherwise. The current wave, with many millions of cases likely just in the UK, could easily lead to more than a million cases of long Covid there. Many of those will recover in time, but others may not. The same story is likely in any country that doesn't take very strong measures right now to control Omicron.
We have to widen the discussion to include more than hospitalization and death. For someone like a 30-year-old in London, which is a demographic with incredibly high case rates right now, death or even hospitalization is highly unlikely, but long Covid is not. We can't keep ignoring the long-term consequences.
posted by ssg at 9:59 PM on December 17, 2021 [97 favorites]
How the omicron variant has impacted South Africa may not necessarily represent what it would do in, say, the US or UK.
posted by linux at 10:26 PM on December 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by linux at 10:26 PM on December 17, 2021 [3 favorites]
There's a big difference between mostly mild cases and entirely mild cases, if something is highly infectious and can spread to a lot more people. COVID is on the whole milder than Ebola, but because so many people are infected, COVID is the bigger problem; aspirin overdoses are mostly mild but still kill more people than cyanide.
posted by Superilla at 10:29 PM on December 17, 2021 [18 favorites]
posted by Superilla at 10:29 PM on December 17, 2021 [18 favorites]
Hospitalizations typically lag two weeks behind the wave of detections.
Denmark's numbers were already worryingly high two weeks ago. This is going to be their first "real" wave with vaccinations. It's going to be the same with many blue US states, Delta is going to look like a tiny blip in comparison if Omicron is as contagious as they say.
There is no remaining political will to do anything in most countries. It is likely already too late to do much about this current Omicron wave except on a very individual level. I'm not trying to be glib about this, worrying isn't going to do much and you should already know how to reduce your risk.
posted by meowzilla at 10:30 PM on December 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Denmark's numbers were already worryingly high two weeks ago. This is going to be their first "real" wave with vaccinations. It's going to be the same with many blue US states, Delta is going to look like a tiny blip in comparison if Omicron is as contagious as they say.
There is no remaining political will to do anything in most countries. It is likely already too late to do much about this current Omicron wave except on a very individual level. I'm not trying to be glib about this, worrying isn't going to do much and you should already know how to reduce your risk.
posted by meowzilla at 10:30 PM on December 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Then there's also this Omicron’s Spread Across Hotel Hall Highlights Transmission Worry
"The omicron variant spread among two fully vaccinated travelers across the hallway of a Hong Kong quarantine hotel, underscoring why the highly mutated coronavirus strain is unnerving health authorities.
Closed-circuit television camera footage showed neither person left their room nor had any contact, leaving airborne transmission when respective doors were opened for food collection or Covid testing the most probable mode of spread, researchers at the University of Hong Kong said in a study published Friday in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases."
posted by folklore724 at 10:34 PM on December 17, 2021 [29 favorites]
"The omicron variant spread among two fully vaccinated travelers across the hallway of a Hong Kong quarantine hotel, underscoring why the highly mutated coronavirus strain is unnerving health authorities.
Closed-circuit television camera footage showed neither person left their room nor had any contact, leaving airborne transmission when respective doors were opened for food collection or Covid testing the most probable mode of spread, researchers at the University of Hong Kong said in a study published Friday in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases."
posted by folklore724 at 10:34 PM on December 17, 2021 [29 favorites]
When historians of the future look back on the political nonsense, the profiteering, the infrastructure collapse, and above all the death toll, I bet they will clearly see this was World War III fought with memes and viruses instead of guns and bombs.
posted by otherchaz at 10:46 PM on December 17, 2021 [41 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 10:46 PM on December 17, 2021 [41 favorites]
The thing about Omicron in South Africa is it's secondary infections in either people who've had Delta or Beta or are vaccinated. For Australia, we don't know the impact of Omicron in "virgin territory".
(Source- Coronacast - the ABC podcast about Coronavirus. I'm still catching up, about a week behind at the moment.)
posted by freethefeet at 10:54 PM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
(Source- Coronacast - the ABC podcast about Coronavirus. I'm still catching up, about a week behind at the moment.)
posted by freethefeet at 10:54 PM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
Omicron looks to be similar to regular influenza.
Nothing in either of your links reaches that conclusion. In fact the first one warns, "Scientists...caution it's too early to draw definitive conclusions about the severity of the disease that it causes." And the second article doesn't go into depth regarding any possible changes in South African societal behavior between the waves. What's the difference in vaccination rates then and now? In testing and quarantining? In masking and other forms of social distancing? Any seasonal pattern (summer is approaching). So let's not be so quick reasserting the "flu" trope that has already been wrong for the past two years.
posted by xigxag at 11:11 PM on December 17, 2021 [24 favorites]
Nothing in either of your links reaches that conclusion. In fact the first one warns, "Scientists...caution it's too early to draw definitive conclusions about the severity of the disease that it causes." And the second article doesn't go into depth regarding any possible changes in South African societal behavior between the waves. What's the difference in vaccination rates then and now? In testing and quarantining? In masking and other forms of social distancing? Any seasonal pattern (summer is approaching). So let's not be so quick reasserting the "flu" trope that has already been wrong for the past two years.
posted by xigxag at 11:11 PM on December 17, 2021 [24 favorites]
The omicron variant spread among two fully vaccinated travelers across the hallway of a Hong Kong quarantine hotel
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
posted by airmail at 11:19 PM on December 17, 2021 [46 favorites]
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
posted by airmail at 11:19 PM on December 17, 2021 [46 favorites]
Today I saw a big bunch of particleboard shelving in my building's recycling bins and the fact that I wasn't the least bit surprised and because people are still walking around the lobby and halls without masks means we're fucked.
Huh? What does particleboard have to do with it?
posted by lostburner at 11:43 PM on December 17, 2021 [70 favorites]
Huh? What does particleboard have to do with it?
posted by lostburner at 11:43 PM on December 17, 2021 [70 favorites]
As someone who is regularly enraged by The Wrong Things being in our recycling bins, I took this to be about people's refusal/inability to follow the rules to try and help solve a collective crisis, and instead just doing what's most convenient for them
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:04 AM on December 18, 2021 [51 favorites]
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:04 AM on December 18, 2021 [51 favorites]
I think it's too early to say anything about Omnicron's severity. This thread from Bob Wather, Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine breaks things down nicely, I think, and mirrors mostly my own threat assessment, though I'm not in the USA anymore.
posted by lazaruslong at 12:41 AM on December 18, 2021 [14 favorites]
This is one of the most confusing times of the pandemic, w/ a firehose of new Omicron data (lots of fab work on #medtwitter putting it into context). In this (long) Thread, I'll offer my take on how the new information is changing my thinking & behavior. (1/25)Threadreader Link
posted by lazaruslong at 12:41 AM on December 18, 2021 [14 favorites]
The UK stopped all precautions five months ago
England stopped all precautions five months ago. Here in Scotland, masks have remained compulsory on public transport and in shops, and at least here in Edinburgh adherence is still pretty good. Scotland's case rate per capita has been pretty consistently lower than England's.
posted by aihal at 12:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [46 favorites]
England stopped all precautions five months ago. Here in Scotland, masks have remained compulsory on public transport and in shops, and at least here in Edinburgh adherence is still pretty good. Scotland's case rate per capita has been pretty consistently lower than England's.
posted by aihal at 12:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [46 favorites]
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
1. Get boosted.
2. Put a mask on before you open the door.
3. Encourage other people in your building to do the same.
4. Maybe use an air purifier with a HEPA filter?
5. Accept that you can't completely eliminate risk, and remember that you can still substantially reduce it by taking the usual precautions: get vaccinated, wear a proper mask, avoid crowds and unventilated spaces, reduce contacts.
The Hong Kong hotel transmission is scary, but it's not unprecedented -- there have been other cases of transmission without direct contact (I think there was another quarantine hotel where it went through the A/C ducts). We know Covid is airborne and can linger in enclosed spaces for an hour or more. But you're far more likely to catch it from face-to-face interaction.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:16 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
1. Get boosted.
2. Put a mask on before you open the door.
3. Encourage other people in your building to do the same.
4. Maybe use an air purifier with a HEPA filter?
5. Accept that you can't completely eliminate risk, and remember that you can still substantially reduce it by taking the usual precautions: get vaccinated, wear a proper mask, avoid crowds and unventilated spaces, reduce contacts.
The Hong Kong hotel transmission is scary, but it's not unprecedented -- there have been other cases of transmission without direct contact (I think there was another quarantine hotel where it went through the A/C ducts). We know Covid is airborne and can linger in enclosed spaces for an hour or more. But you're far more likely to catch it from face-to-face interaction.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:16 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
Are we at zombies yet? Or still just death and misery?
The numbers of the various Omicron assessments I’ve seen (under 1000 Omicron-infected, generally) have led me to be generally skeptical about their pronouncements. (It as bad! Look at my statistics! It’s relatively light, look at my statistics! Study size: 100 cases. Come on) Wake me up when they’re assessing tens of thousands of cases
posted by From Bklyn at 1:17 AM on December 18, 2021
The numbers of the various Omicron assessments I’ve seen (under 1000 Omicron-infected, generally) have led me to be generally skeptical about their pronouncements. (It as bad! Look at my statistics! It’s relatively light, look at my statistics! Study size: 100 cases. Come on) Wake me up when they’re assessing tens of thousands of cases
posted by From Bklyn at 1:17 AM on December 18, 2021
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
Positive pressure. It'll play havok with your heating bills, but outside air pressurizing your apartment even a little bit above ambient pressure in the rest of the building mostly ensures air will flow out of it, rather than in.
(the trick then is not to get infected yourself and become a overpressurized hotspot)
posted by transitional procedures at 2:28 AM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
Positive pressure. It'll play havok with your heating bills, but outside air pressurizing your apartment even a little bit above ambient pressure in the rest of the building mostly ensures air will flow out of it, rather than in.
(the trick then is not to get infected yourself and become a overpressurized hotspot)
posted by transitional procedures at 2:28 AM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
*Waves to aihal from her Edinburgh flat* Thank you for saying basically what I was going to say! Scotland can't be lumped entirely with England.
We also have vaccine passports for big events, and have now been advised to limit gathering to only three households. The vast majority of Christmas staff dinners have been cancelled, which is a bit of a disaster for the restaurants tbh, and the queues at vaccine booster drop-ins are hours long. A lot of people are taking this seriously, but our cases are still creeping up.
posted by stillnocturnal at 3:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
We also have vaccine passports for big events, and have now been advised to limit gathering to only three households. The vast majority of Christmas staff dinners have been cancelled, which is a bit of a disaster for the restaurants tbh, and the queues at vaccine booster drop-ins are hours long. A lot of people are taking this seriously, but our cases are still creeping up.
posted by stillnocturnal at 3:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Also, I've personally known a couple cases now where a person went from having a close contact, to infecting someone else, in just two or three days. That is a rapid turnaround that makes contact tracing pointlessly behind and makes it very difficult to limit spread by isolating. By the time person A has symptoms and takes a test and knows to isolate, person B has already given it to person C!
posted by stillnocturnal at 4:04 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by stillnocturnal at 4:04 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
...or are vaccinated. For Australia, we don't know the impact of Omicron in "virgin territory"
Children aside (sorry children) it's not virgin territory, it's far-more-vaccinated-than-SA territory. That said, I'm not sure if SA cities have weekly incursions into CBDs by suburban Qseppophile plague-rats like Australia does.
posted by pompomtom at 4:12 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
Children aside (sorry children) it's not virgin territory, it's far-more-vaccinated-than-SA territory. That said, I'm not sure if SA cities have weekly incursions into CBDs by suburban Qseppophile plague-rats like Australia does.
posted by pompomtom at 4:12 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
It looks like if the current rate of infection holds, we are going to be looking at a million US Omicron cases by the first week of January, which is going to completely crush the healthcare systems in quite a few states.
Already we’re seeing this in New York, which easily blew through the highest daily case rate of the entire pandemic. (With the caveats of lack of testing during the first wave, and massive removal of test locations in the past month.)
In Miami, they are seeing 80% Omicron in testing, even though they’ve been doing pretty well recently after the last wave debacle. The first Omicron case was on the 2nd…
Basically we are back to March 2020 in NYC again, but it won’t be hyper localized like last time. This time we have collapsing healthcare systems, governments that won’t do what is necessary and rabid anti-vaxxers, etc.
The only ‘good’ is that it should burn out a lot faster.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:30 AM on December 18, 2021 [9 favorites]
Already we’re seeing this in New York, which easily blew through the highest daily case rate of the entire pandemic. (With the caveats of lack of testing during the first wave, and massive removal of test locations in the past month.)
In Miami, they are seeing 80% Omicron in testing, even though they’ve been doing pretty well recently after the last wave debacle. The first Omicron case was on the 2nd…
Basically we are back to March 2020 in NYC again, but it won’t be hyper localized like last time. This time we have collapsing healthcare systems, governments that won’t do what is necessary and rabid anti-vaxxers, etc.
The only ‘good’ is that it should burn out a lot faster.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:30 AM on December 18, 2021 [9 favorites]
I'm also still stuck up above pondering why particleboard shelving is a significant omen.
posted by spitbull at 4:54 AM on December 18, 2021 [29 favorites]
posted by spitbull at 4:54 AM on December 18, 2021 [29 favorites]
We’re in the thick of it in Ontario. Here’s our Science Table’s report from yesterday, which also points out hospitalizations in South Africa are rising. It looks at the Danish data and predicts ICUs will be non-functional by January.
For transmission, this thing is brutal. I have a staff member whose high school was shut down midday because in a class of 34 kids, most double-vaccinated, masks required (although fabric is allowed), a kid came back as having omicron. They rapid tested that class on the way out and found *7* cases (not yet PCR confirmed), all asymptomatic so far. My husband’s coworker’s son’s hockey team has 9/10 kids positive. None of this is actually in the Ontario data yet because people trying to confirm the antigen test with a proper non-rapid test can’t get appointments.
Our gov’t hasn’t done enough, just introduced a few weak measures yesterday, so here we go.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:01 AM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
For transmission, this thing is brutal. I have a staff member whose high school was shut down midday because in a class of 34 kids, most double-vaccinated, masks required (although fabric is allowed), a kid came back as having omicron. They rapid tested that class on the way out and found *7* cases (not yet PCR confirmed), all asymptomatic so far. My husband’s coworker’s son’s hockey team has 9/10 kids positive. None of this is actually in the Ontario data yet because people trying to confirm the antigen test with a proper non-rapid test can’t get appointments.
Our gov’t hasn’t done enough, just introduced a few weak measures yesterday, so here we go.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:01 AM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
A sad and accurate summary from Dr. Bob Wachter's tweet thread linked above: "We’re all exhausted and sick of living this bizarre and diminished life."
posted by PhineasGage at 5:01 AM on December 18, 2021 [21 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 5:01 AM on December 18, 2021 [21 favorites]
The only ‘good’ is that it should burn out a lot faster.
Potentially leaving millions permanently disabled with Long Covid.
posted by acb at 5:11 AM on December 18, 2021 [21 favorites]
Potentially leaving millions permanently disabled with Long Covid.
posted by acb at 5:11 AM on December 18, 2021 [21 favorites]
Yep, that’s a big part of what is killing me about all of this… Long Term Covid is clearly a humongous problem, that still gets downplayed and minimized at all levels. I 100% wish that this wave was being taken as seriously as the first, as botched as that was.
I’m personally way more concerned about permanent brain or lung damage depending on how bad it is when I end up catching it. At this point, even being triple vaccinated and doing my best to avoid people, it feels like catching it is inevitable. Trying to get the place I work at to close the office down and go remote ASAP is driving me crazy.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:22 AM on December 18, 2021 [29 favorites]
I’m personally way more concerned about permanent brain or lung damage depending on how bad it is when I end up catching it. At this point, even being triple vaccinated and doing my best to avoid people, it feels like catching it is inevitable. Trying to get the place I work at to close the office down and go remote ASAP is driving me crazy.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:22 AM on December 18, 2021 [29 favorites]
Particle board isn’t recyclable. It’s indicative of people’s willful ignorance or refusal to do what should be done for the greater good.
posted by spikeleemajortomdickandharryconnickjrmints at 5:26 AM on December 18, 2021 [33 favorites]
posted by spikeleemajortomdickandharryconnickjrmints at 5:26 AM on December 18, 2021 [33 favorites]
Re: Long Covid... a relative was found to have an asymptomatic infection around New Years’s last year. That wasn’t any big deal for him... until June, when he found himself dealing with brain fog and not able to walk around the block due to shortness of breath. That required breathing treatments and he now has to carry around a rescue inhaler. We’re not gonna know the true impacts of Long Covid for a while yet, but I suspect it ain’t gonna be pretty.
Also, this is a press release from Cornell about them stopping in-person classes due to Omicron. About 3/4 of the way down, they have a good explainer of the math as to why less severe but more transmissible is a big problem.
posted by azpenguin at 5:35 AM on December 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
Also, this is a press release from Cornell about them stopping in-person classes due to Omicron. About 3/4 of the way down, they have a good explainer of the math as to why less severe but more transmissible is a big problem.
posted by azpenguin at 5:35 AM on December 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses Imperial College London
posted by robbyrobs at 5:41 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 5:41 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
The VP of my company scheduled a lunch meeting with the contractors for our most recently bid project yesterday. My whole team sat there in KN95 masks watching them eat.
Of course when the other 60 people in the building haven’t worn a mask in months we probably can’t protect ourselves.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 5:59 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
Of course when the other 60 people in the building haven’t worn a mask in months we probably can’t protect ourselves.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 5:59 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
If the leaders of my nation don't care whether I live, die, or suffer, why should I?
posted by Faint of Butt at 6:03 AM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 6:03 AM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
Doubly glad that we cancelled our holiday travel plans but sad that I haven't seen my family in two years now. They're not getting any younger and I'm hoping that there's at least a window in waves at some point in the next few years when we can meet up again.
posted by octothorpe at 6:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [15 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 6:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [15 favorites]
I'm also still stuck up above pondering why particleboard shelving is a significant omen.
It's a sign of the lazy, careless selfishness that has made this plague impossible to control. It's evidence of someone who behaves as though they are the protagonist of reality, leaving their responsibilities for someone else to handle. It's the same half assed attitude of someone who goes around with their nose hanging out of their mask, their mask shoved down under their chin in crowded places, or absent entirely because they decided the pandemic was "over" because they want it to be. A cultural obsession with childish individualism has left many people with no conception of positive and necessary collective action at all.
posted by EatTheWeek at 6:20 AM on December 18, 2021 [61 favorites]
It's a sign of the lazy, careless selfishness that has made this plague impossible to control. It's evidence of someone who behaves as though they are the protagonist of reality, leaving their responsibilities for someone else to handle. It's the same half assed attitude of someone who goes around with their nose hanging out of their mask, their mask shoved down under their chin in crowded places, or absent entirely because they decided the pandemic was "over" because they want it to be. A cultural obsession with childish individualism has left many people with no conception of positive and necessary collective action at all.
posted by EatTheWeek at 6:20 AM on December 18, 2021 [61 favorites]
Viruses mutate. Scientists knew it would happen. Usually, novel viruses become more transmissible by becoming less deadly, but since we had segments of the population walking around like everything was normal-- mingling with vaccinated folks doing the same-- the predictions are more difficult.
But we basically don't know much about Omicron severity or the effectiveness of the vaccines against it-- and won't really know for months. All you can do is get your booster, if you can, and wear your masks, and avoid stressing about the people who decided ignorance is a badge of honor.
posted by zennie at 6:24 AM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
But we basically don't know much about Omicron severity or the effectiveness of the vaccines against it-- and won't really know for months. All you can do is get your booster, if you can, and wear your masks, and avoid stressing about the people who decided ignorance is a badge of honor.
posted by zennie at 6:24 AM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
My idiot 30-something son-in-law (the lone vaccine holdout in the family) tested positive this week, forcing our daughter (who is vaccinated) and our 4-year-old granddaughter to quarantine along with him. So far, it seems like a mild case, but I doubt it'll convince him to get vaccinated afterward.
It isn't a political thing for him, though. He simply made a "I'm young and healthy so I don't need it" decision way back when vaccines were rolling out, and he's hellbent on sticking to it no matter what. And the more people plead for him to get vaccinated, the tighter he clings to his decision. Pride goeth before the fall, I guess. Pisses the fuck out of me.
On the other hand, a woman in my wife's office is staunchly anti-vax and refuses to allow her 17-year-old daughter to get vaccinated, even though the daughter really, really wants to. Well, guess who got sent home from school yesterday having tested positive? My wife wants to punch this woman in the face.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:27 AM on December 18, 2021 [46 favorites]
It isn't a political thing for him, though. He simply made a "I'm young and healthy so I don't need it" decision way back when vaccines were rolling out, and he's hellbent on sticking to it no matter what. And the more people plead for him to get vaccinated, the tighter he clings to his decision. Pride goeth before the fall, I guess. Pisses the fuck out of me.
On the other hand, a woman in my wife's office is staunchly anti-vax and refuses to allow her 17-year-old daughter to get vaccinated, even though the daughter really, really wants to. Well, guess who got sent home from school yesterday having tested positive? My wife wants to punch this woman in the face.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:27 AM on December 18, 2021 [46 favorites]
Doubly glad that we cancelled our holiday travel plans but sad that I haven't seen my family in two years now. They're not getting any younger and I'm hoping that there's at least a window in waves at some point in the next few years when we can meet up again.
In a similar boat here, though at least my parents were able to come visit me before this current wave. Last year, when it seemed like this would be over in a small finite time, I didn’t travel because the two week quarantine on either end would have interfered with work. No more, though. I’m going to take the next opportunity to visit family that I get between waves and booster shot availability for my age cohort where I am, and work can work around that. (Fortunate that my job is secure enough that I can make that decision, though. Most people can’t, unfortunately. The increase in union activity across North America lately is much needed.)
posted by eviemath at 6:53 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
In a similar boat here, though at least my parents were able to come visit me before this current wave. Last year, when it seemed like this would be over in a small finite time, I didn’t travel because the two week quarantine on either end would have interfered with work. No more, though. I’m going to take the next opportunity to visit family that I get between waves and booster shot availability for my age cohort where I am, and work can work around that. (Fortunate that my job is secure enough that I can make that decision, though. Most people can’t, unfortunately. The increase in union activity across North America lately is much needed.)
posted by eviemath at 6:53 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
at this point i'm more annoyed with the "wellllll, I don't know about this" or "i'm young and healthy" anti vaxxers than the full on conspiracy theorists. if you think graphene nanobots are turning people into 5G zombies then what can I say? if you're making the former excuses, you just obviously know better.
posted by AlbertCalavicci at 7:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [24 favorites]
posted by AlbertCalavicci at 7:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [24 favorites]
Mike Silverman's Friday Night Update from the ER in Arlington, VA (Facebook but should be available without login)
posted by gudrun at 7:28 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by gudrun at 7:28 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
I know a couple who had COVID in February or March, then got vaccinated, but decided not to get boosters because they felt they had “super protection” from prior infection and vaccination. One of them has basically decided that precautions are over for themselves, personally.
They have COVID this week. Mild, flu-like cases, but it’s COVID.
I am really not feeling this wave. Two kids in my daughter’s second grade class tested positive in the last couple weeks (the first this year, in her class) and the school protocol is evidently to do nothing? She is very-recently vaccinated, so bonus points there, but it’s not great.
posted by uncleozzy at 7:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
They have COVID this week. Mild, flu-like cases, but it’s COVID.
I am really not feeling this wave. Two kids in my daughter’s second grade class tested positive in the last couple weeks (the first this year, in her class) and the school protocol is evidently to do nothing? She is very-recently vaccinated, so bonus points there, but it’s not great.
posted by uncleozzy at 7:50 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
Some possibly more hopeful news, assuming it holds up: Cases in Gauteng appear to have reached a peak of about 10,100 per day on 6 Dec, and are now about 8,000 per day, placing R below 1.
I’m sure there are reasons why any optimistic reading of this is a mirage, and we’re still heading into a meat grinder.
posted by acb at 8:11 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
I’m sure there are reasons why any optimistic reading of this is a mirage, and we’re still heading into a meat grinder.
posted by acb at 8:11 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Basically we are back to March 2020 in NYC again, but it won’t be hyper localized like last time. This time we have collapsing healthcare systems, governments that won’t do what is necessary and rabid anti-vaxxers, etc.
The only ‘good’ is that it should burn out a lot faster.
I mean, sure, but also maybe another good is that as of December 2021, NYC adults are 80%+ vaccinated (about 1 million with boosters.) In March 2020, it was 0%. We have Monoclonal antibody treatment. We have Paxlovid. Hell, people weren't even wearing facemasks in March 2020. I understand omicron's increased transmissibility is a huge factor, but we have a lot more tools at our disposal than we did in March 2020.
posted by gwint at 8:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [20 favorites]
The only ‘good’ is that it should burn out a lot faster.
I mean, sure, but also maybe another good is that as of December 2021, NYC adults are 80%+ vaccinated (about 1 million with boosters.) In March 2020, it was 0%. We have Monoclonal antibody treatment. We have Paxlovid. Hell, people weren't even wearing facemasks in March 2020. I understand omicron's increased transmissibility is a huge factor, but we have a lot more tools at our disposal than we did in March 2020.
posted by gwint at 8:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [20 favorites]
Unfortunately, we know that being double vaccinated with Pfizer is about 35% effective against symptomatic Omicron infection, so that will slow things down slightly, but not a lot given how fast Omicron spreads. Moderna is probably a little bit better, but J&J is pretty much useless. Boosters do help quite a bit, but not enough people have them yet to make a big difference. So that's not great news, though being double vaccinated should help against severe disease and death (and maybe reduce the risk of long Covid, though we have very little data on this and it may not hold for Omicron).
Monoclonal antibodies are not looking very effective against Omicron. Some might help to some degree. We'll get new ones, but not until after this wave.
Paxlovid does seem to be effective against Omicron, though there is very little data, but it's unclear if it will be widely available before this wave peaks.
posted by ssg at 8:51 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Monoclonal antibodies are not looking very effective against Omicron. Some might help to some degree. We'll get new ones, but not until after this wave.
Paxlovid does seem to be effective against Omicron, though there is very little data, but it's unclear if it will be widely available before this wave peaks.
posted by ssg at 8:51 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Unfortunately, we know that being double vaccinated with Pfizer is about 35% effective against symptomatic Omicron infection
Source, please.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:07 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
Source, please.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:07 AM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
Unfortunately, we know that being double vaccinated with Pfizer is about 35% effective against symptomatic Omicron infection
I cannot remember the name of the guest on the Maddow show the other night (or perhaps the last word?) but they said basically the same thing - 40% effectiveness with two shots, 80% effectiveness with the booster as well. One shot alone = you are screwed.
posted by instead of three wishes at 9:16 AM on December 18, 2021
I cannot remember the name of the guest on the Maddow show the other night (or perhaps the last word?) but they said basically the same thing - 40% effectiveness with two shots, 80% effectiveness with the booster as well. One shot alone = you are screwed.
posted by instead of three wishes at 9:16 AM on December 18, 2021
Source, please.
When it came to avoiding infection altogether, the study by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, showed that protection against catching COVID-19 had slumped to 33% from 80% previously.
(Worth remembering this is an early study, on limited cases, and only takes into account antibody production, so there are plenty of other ways the vaccines will induce protection against symptomatic infection that haven't been fully studied yet -- though a report out this week suggests that t-cell production remains "robust", which is good news.)
posted by fight or flight at 9:18 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
When it came to avoiding infection altogether, the study by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, showed that protection against catching COVID-19 had slumped to 33% from 80% previously.
(Worth remembering this is an early study, on limited cases, and only takes into account antibody production, so there are plenty of other ways the vaccines will induce protection against symptomatic infection that haven't been fully studied yet -- though a report out this week suggests that t-cell production remains "robust", which is good news.)
posted by fight or flight at 9:18 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
UK data on vaccine effectiveness is very similar to South African (from UKHSA, page 20)
posted by ssg at 9:20 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by ssg at 9:20 AM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
I think ssg is referencing this study:
The vaccine study published Friday indicated reduced levels of protection. Four months after people received a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, the shots were roughly 35% effective in preventing symptomatic infections caused by omicron, a significant drop-off from their performance against the delta variant, the scientists found.
Another study from earlier this week found that the monoclonal antibodies are almost completely ineffective against omicron:
Most monoclonal antibodies are unable to neutralize omicron
When administered early in the course of infection, monoclonal antibodies can prevent many individuals from developing severe COVID. But the new study suggests that all of the therapies currently in use and most in development are much less effective against omicron, if they work at all.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 9:25 AM on December 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
The vaccine study published Friday indicated reduced levels of protection. Four months after people received a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, the shots were roughly 35% effective in preventing symptomatic infections caused by omicron, a significant drop-off from their performance against the delta variant, the scientists found.
Another study from earlier this week found that the monoclonal antibodies are almost completely ineffective against omicron:
Most monoclonal antibodies are unable to neutralize omicron
When administered early in the course of infection, monoclonal antibodies can prevent many individuals from developing severe COVID. But the new study suggests that all of the therapies currently in use and most in development are much less effective against omicron, if they work at all.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 9:25 AM on December 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
Colleges and universities: some have moved end of semester work online.
For January, three American campuses so far have announced some classes online.
(Some of us launched an open spreadsheet for tracking this. OK to share here?)
posted by doctornemo at 9:42 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
For January, three American campuses so far have announced some classes online.
(Some of us launched an open spreadsheet for tracking this. OK to share here?)
posted by doctornemo at 9:42 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
Should I go to the grocery store?
Our son is back with us for the holidays, and has celiac disease. The stores are pretty good about getting the right gluten-free items... but not always. So we have to choose between his health and escalating pandemic risk?
posted by doctornemo at 9:44 AM on December 18, 2021
Our son is back with us for the holidays, and has celiac disease. The stores are pretty good about getting the right gluten-free items... but not always. So we have to choose between his health and escalating pandemic risk?
posted by doctornemo at 9:44 AM on December 18, 2021
My idiot 30-something son-in-law (the lone vaccine holdout in the family) tested positive this week
I am fortunate to not have any anti-vaxxers in my immediate family but on my extended family, hoo boy.
I was angered in the fall when that segment of the family decided to attend a retirement party of a (vaccinated and cautious) immunocompromised relative as Delta was on the rise. Of course they were unmasked and full of hugs and prompts for people to unmask because they wanted to see everyone's lovely faces. Fortunately the guest of honour emerged from that gathering without incident. Not two weeks later, two of the unvaxxed (working in health care in administrative roles) came down with Covid. One was hospitalized (for about a month!), was hours away from intensive care, and by all accounts felt they were going to die. But he didn't.
And what was the outcome? They're still unvaxxed and will have a big family Christmas mixing vaxxed and unvaxxed. The matriarch is urging the vaxxed *not* to get boosters. The couple that worked in health care? There is a mandate here (Canadian prairies) for health care workers to be vaccinated now *SO THEY QUIT THEIR JOBS*.
The reason to avoid the vax? It's not even consistent, there's a right wing reaction (Fox News/QAnon, right wing crazy) and left wing hippy-drippy embrace 'natural' solutions/I'm young and healthy.
I don't know how you combat this.
I just can't even.
posted by mazola at 9:49 AM on December 18, 2021 [44 favorites]
I am fortunate to not have any anti-vaxxers in my immediate family but on my extended family, hoo boy.
I was angered in the fall when that segment of the family decided to attend a retirement party of a (vaccinated and cautious) immunocompromised relative as Delta was on the rise. Of course they were unmasked and full of hugs and prompts for people to unmask because they wanted to see everyone's lovely faces. Fortunately the guest of honour emerged from that gathering without incident. Not two weeks later, two of the unvaxxed (working in health care in administrative roles) came down with Covid. One was hospitalized (for about a month!), was hours away from intensive care, and by all accounts felt they were going to die. But he didn't.
And what was the outcome? They're still unvaxxed and will have a big family Christmas mixing vaxxed and unvaxxed. The matriarch is urging the vaxxed *not* to get boosters. The couple that worked in health care? There is a mandate here (Canadian prairies) for health care workers to be vaccinated now *SO THEY QUIT THEIR JOBS*.
The reason to avoid the vax? It's not even consistent, there's a right wing reaction (Fox News/QAnon, right wing crazy) and left wing hippy-drippy embrace 'natural' solutions/I'm young and healthy.
I don't know how you combat this.
I just can't even.
posted by mazola at 9:49 AM on December 18, 2021 [44 favorites]
I know a couple who had COVID in February or March, then got vaccinated, but decided not to get boosters because they felt they had “super protection” from prior infection and vaccination. ... They have COVID this week. Mild, flu-like cases, but it’s COVID.
Man I don't understand people like this at all. Yes, you've got pretty good immunity in that situation. But you could also get a booster on top of it. Hell, in a world where vaccine access and availability were total non-issues, I'd be shooting it up every couple of months if I could.
Should I go to the grocery store?
Wear an N95-type mask (N95, KN95, etc), go when it's not busy if you can, have a list organized by location in the store so you can be efficient, plan ahead so that you only have to go once a week at most.
Remember, tens of thousands of healthcare workers in COVID wards managed to make it through the entire pre-vaccine period with nothing but PPE. A properly fitted N95-type mask is a very good first line of defense.
posted by jedicus at 9:54 AM on December 18, 2021 [34 favorites]
Man I don't understand people like this at all. Yes, you've got pretty good immunity in that situation. But you could also get a booster on top of it. Hell, in a world where vaccine access and availability were total non-issues, I'd be shooting it up every couple of months if I could.
Should I go to the grocery store?
Wear an N95-type mask (N95, KN95, etc), go when it's not busy if you can, have a list organized by location in the store so you can be efficient, plan ahead so that you only have to go once a week at most.
Remember, tens of thousands of healthcare workers in COVID wards managed to make it through the entire pre-vaccine period with nothing but PPE. A properly fitted N95-type mask is a very good first line of defense.
posted by jedicus at 9:54 AM on December 18, 2021 [34 favorites]
So sorry, maxola, about your family. Doctors are puzzled about why there has been such a collective spike in blood pressure and are speculating it is because people are more sedentary and gaining weight, but c'mon, look at the shit we are having to put up with from unvaxxed relatives! Sheesh. Of course my blood pressure has spiked!
posted by nanook at 9:57 AM on December 18, 2021 [19 favorites]
posted by nanook at 9:57 AM on December 18, 2021 [19 favorites]
My wife wants to punch this woman in the face.
Glove up first.
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [26 favorites]
Glove up first.
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 AM on December 18, 2021 [26 favorites]
The reason to avoid the vax? It's not even consistent, there's a right wing reaction (Fox News/QAnon, right wing crazy) and left wing hippy-drippy embrace 'natural' solutions/I'm young and healthy.
I don't know how you combat this.
My personal thoughts are that people act like this because in such turbulent times these people need to feel like they have some sort of control of their own lives. Don't get me wrong, control is one of those lie and illusion that we delude ourselves with but just feeling like they're in control gives them comfort. They're going through the loss of white hegemony and their innate social status, they're not able to do the things they used to be able to do because things have been closed or scaled back or just gone out of business, they're not able to see the family they want to because of sensible public health measures. What's left for them to do? It's basically the same as a toddler going "you can't tell me what to do!" because it literally comes from the same place, clutching at whatever straws of control over one's own life that they are able to.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:15 AM on December 18, 2021 [35 favorites]
I don't know how you combat this.
My personal thoughts are that people act like this because in such turbulent times these people need to feel like they have some sort of control of their own lives. Don't get me wrong, control is one of those lie and illusion that we delude ourselves with but just feeling like they're in control gives them comfort. They're going through the loss of white hegemony and their innate social status, they're not able to do the things they used to be able to do because things have been closed or scaled back or just gone out of business, they're not able to see the family they want to because of sensible public health measures. What's left for them to do? It's basically the same as a toddler going "you can't tell me what to do!" because it literally comes from the same place, clutching at whatever straws of control over one's own life that they are able to.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:15 AM on December 18, 2021 [35 favorites]
Why does it feel like humanity is in the hospice and is just being give palliative care?
posted by interogative mood at 10:44 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:44 AM on December 18, 2021 [10 favorites]
> If the leaders of my nation don't care whether I live, die, or suffer, why should I?
Are you rich? or poor. Because it makes a difference, although Covid doesn't care. Rich Americans can buy tests off Amazon, the poor off Walmart.com, and the destitute, well, just cough on the richest person you know and they can get tested. (The wealthy are excluded from this discussion as they'll just get rapid tested on the way into to the party.)
posted by fragmede at 10:45 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Are you rich? or poor. Because it makes a difference, although Covid doesn't care. Rich Americans can buy tests off Amazon, the poor off Walmart.com, and the destitute, well, just cough on the richest person you know and they can get tested. (The wealthy are excluded from this discussion as they'll just get rapid tested on the way into to the party.)
posted by fragmede at 10:45 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Where I live (Fairfax County, VA) the libraries are giving out free covid test kits. It's not enough, my librarian friend told me the first batch was gone in 7 minutes, but it's something. They got a much bigger stockpile in a couple days later. Shoutout to the VA dep't of health who supplied them with the kits.
posted by selfmedicating at 10:53 AM on December 18, 2021 [19 favorites]
posted by selfmedicating at 10:53 AM on December 18, 2021 [19 favorites]
Here's the latest update from Denmark, which has one of the world's most comprehensive COVID testing and analysis systems.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:57 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 10:57 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Omicron: Netherlands to Enter Strict Lockdown Days Ahead of Christmas.
posted by Pendragon at 11:05 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 11:05 AM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
rambling wanderlust: “Trying to get the place I work at to close the office down and go remote ASAP is driving me crazy.”The inability to reinstate indoor gather restrictions in the United States because of politics is making me… well I cast about for a colorful metaphor for a while but failed and had to settle for unhappy.
posted by ob1quixote at 11:10 AM on December 18, 2021 [13 favorites]
A report from Imperial College in UK found that 30 days out from a Pfizer booster (3rd shot) you have only 48.4% protection from mild disease. But 60 days it was 38.9%, by 90 days it was 30.2%: https://twitter.com/Sars2_Club/status/1472246744901730309/photo/1
"Ultimately, Omicron variant-specific vaccines are likely to be required."
posted by folklore724 at 11:12 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
"Ultimately, Omicron variant-specific vaccines are likely to be required."
posted by folklore724 at 11:12 AM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
Moved to NYC in September with my wife so she could make her Broadway debut. Now the cast is dropping like flies. Shows cancelled indefinitely. They should have called it off early this week at the first positive test from the wig and makeup department but instead they barrelled through the week, one sub after another. Totally predictable. So far she's testing negative but we'll see. I just got my booster today and she'll try tomorrow I guess? Not sure she's eligible since being a close contact to a positive case.
posted by Evstar at 11:21 AM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
posted by Evstar at 11:21 AM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
A report from Imperial College in UK found that 30 days out from a Pfizer booster (3rd shot) you have only 48.4% protection from mild disease. But 60 days it was 38.9%, by 90 days it was 30.2%
It's not quite clear to me, but it looks like this is modelling with some basis in data, not straight data-based analysis. So I think probably worth taking it with a big grain of salt. It looks like the Imperial College folks are using a different method to estimate vaccine efficacy against Omicron and coming up with very different numbers (54%) than the UKHSA (who estimated 77%).
I think the decline in efficacy over time that they are talking about is based on modelling from declining antibody levels, though this isn't entirely clear to me. Note that the UKHSA and Imperial numbers above are both lumping all those two weeks or more out from their booster in one group, so it's not clear where the much lower numbers for 60 or 90 days are coming from if they are actually based on data (but this paper does also refer to data in another Imperial paper that is still embargoed).
In any case, this seems far from definitive.
posted by ssg at 12:31 PM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
It's not quite clear to me, but it looks like this is modelling with some basis in data, not straight data-based analysis. So I think probably worth taking it with a big grain of salt. It looks like the Imperial College folks are using a different method to estimate vaccine efficacy against Omicron and coming up with very different numbers (54%) than the UKHSA (who estimated 77%).
I think the decline in efficacy over time that they are talking about is based on modelling from declining antibody levels, though this isn't entirely clear to me. Note that the UKHSA and Imperial numbers above are both lumping all those two weeks or more out from their booster in one group, so it's not clear where the much lower numbers for 60 or 90 days are coming from if they are actually based on data (but this paper does also refer to data in another Imperial paper that is still embargoed).
In any case, this seems far from definitive.
posted by ssg at 12:31 PM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
Really glad our government held that MISSION ACCOMPLISHED thing on July 4. Truly, we are free from COVID.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 12:32 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 12:32 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
By the time an Omicron specific vaccine is spun up we’ll be on Rho or Tau. And even then, will those variants be of a lineage via Omicron or through some other novel variant? When do we start divvying this ridiculously fast virus up into clades?
The vaccine data is fucking devastating. 30% after 3 months?
Everyone’s got their own line for, “we lost” but I just crossed mine. It ain’t seasonal, it mutates too fast for vaccinations to do more than reduce risk of death, the right wing may as well be Nurgle cultists, and there’s no political strength for a knife fight over containment measures.
Twice a year risks of catching something with a 1.65% kill rate is keeping me molten lava mad every time I put a mask on. Was the protocol for changing names here via another purchase or a request through the mods? My name everywhere else is “InMediasRage” and that just feels more right than Slackermagee now.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:46 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
The vaccine data is fucking devastating. 30% after 3 months?
Everyone’s got their own line for, “we lost” but I just crossed mine. It ain’t seasonal, it mutates too fast for vaccinations to do more than reduce risk of death, the right wing may as well be Nurgle cultists, and there’s no political strength for a knife fight over containment measures.
Twice a year risks of catching something with a 1.65% kill rate is keeping me molten lava mad every time I put a mask on. Was the protocol for changing names here via another purchase or a request through the mods? My name everywhere else is “InMediasRage” and that just feels more right than Slackermagee now.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:46 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
By the time an Omicron specific vaccine is spun up we’ll be on Rho or Tau. And even then, will those variants be of a lineage via Omicron or through some other novel variant? When do we start divvying this ridiculously fast virus up into clades?There are a lot of people – especially on social media – pushing gloom but it’s not as dire as you’re making it out to be. The vaccines are not enough to prevent spread — mask up — but the key number for most of us is effectiveness against serious cases, which has been looking a lot better. Also don’t forget that mRNA vaccines can be adjusted in weeks and the factory capacity has been going up dramatically.
The vaccine data is fucking devastating. 30% after 3 months?
posted by adamsc at 1:06 PM on December 18, 2021 [23 favorites]
It's a sign of the lazy, careless selfishness that has made this plague impossible to control.
You had me at "particleboard."
posted by spitbull at 1:34 PM on December 18, 2021 [14 favorites]
You had me at "particleboard."
posted by spitbull at 1:34 PM on December 18, 2021 [14 favorites]
There's no reason that the rest of you should care about this, but I need to rant.
I'm the instructor for a university course of about 250 students, in Canada. I have a final exam scheduled for Monday. The exam is due to be held in a four hundred seat lecture theatre, with no windows. Last week, I thought through the issue carefully, and decided that the in-person exam should be replaced with an online version. So I informed the students -- and was pleased to receive some warm feedback.
But then, yesterday, someone in the upper administration send me a four-line email, sternly telling me that I am not permitted to have an online exam, because it would be "confusing" and "unfair". So I had to email my students again, telling them that the in-person exam was back on. Since then, I've had a steady stream of emails from students, telling me about how anxious they are, and about their elderly and immuno-compromised relatives.
(Confusing?? If these students can understand university level mathematics, which they can, they can understand a simple change of plan. As to fairness ... well I'm sure the students will be delighted that they are all equally and fairly being exposed to Omicron.)
TBH, I'm tempted to have the exam online anyway ... but I'm untenured, so it would be a huge risk for me.
posted by HoraceH at 1:59 PM on December 18, 2021 [84 favorites]
I'm the instructor for a university course of about 250 students, in Canada. I have a final exam scheduled for Monday. The exam is due to be held in a four hundred seat lecture theatre, with no windows. Last week, I thought through the issue carefully, and decided that the in-person exam should be replaced with an online version. So I informed the students -- and was pleased to receive some warm feedback.
But then, yesterday, someone in the upper administration send me a four-line email, sternly telling me that I am not permitted to have an online exam, because it would be "confusing" and "unfair". So I had to email my students again, telling them that the in-person exam was back on. Since then, I've had a steady stream of emails from students, telling me about how anxious they are, and about their elderly and immuno-compromised relatives.
(Confusing?? If these students can understand university level mathematics, which they can, they can understand a simple change of plan. As to fairness ... well I'm sure the students will be delighted that they are all equally and fairly being exposed to Omicron.)
TBH, I'm tempted to have the exam online anyway ... but I'm untenured, so it would be a huge risk for me.
posted by HoraceH at 1:59 PM on December 18, 2021 [84 favorites]
Horace, I wish you could forward each one of those students’ emails to the Administration asshat , but I know you can’t, because that mindless zombie is too frail to handle the messages without reflexively responding with even less intelligence.
It is good you are trying to do well by your students and I am sure they could appreciate your position. Perhaps this is a teachable moment… an opportunity to demonstrate for them what mental rot can occur in large organizations more concerned with optics than anything else?
posted by armoir from antproof case at 2:06 PM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
It is good you are trying to do well by your students and I am sure they could appreciate your position. Perhaps this is a teachable moment… an opportunity to demonstrate for them what mental rot can occur in large organizations more concerned with optics than anything else?
posted by armoir from antproof case at 2:06 PM on December 18, 2021 [7 favorites]
Omicron: Netherlands to Enter Strict Lockdown Days Ahead of Christmas.
I have a few friends in the Netherlands, including a couple from my hometown in Canada who have lived there for nigh on twenty years. They are both boostered, but the husband is a huge Canadian football fan and so they made a return trip last week to the old country to attend the Grey Cup finals.
The overlap of “strict lockdown” with “was in a crowd of 23,000 a week ago” is tricky to get a handle on.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:24 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
I have a few friends in the Netherlands, including a couple from my hometown in Canada who have lived there for nigh on twenty years. They are both boostered, but the husband is a huge Canadian football fan and so they made a return trip last week to the old country to attend the Grey Cup finals.
The overlap of “strict lockdown” with “was in a crowd of 23,000 a week ago” is tricky to get a handle on.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:24 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
Everyone’s got their own line for, “we lost” but I just crossed mine.
Just get boosted if you can. Not that this leads to “normal” but the data is really good so far.
posted by warriorqueen at 2:55 PM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Just get boosted if you can. Not that this leads to “normal” but the data is really good so far.
posted by warriorqueen at 2:55 PM on December 18, 2021 [3 favorites]
Hell, in a world where vaccine access and availability were total non-issues, I'd be shooting it up every couple of months if I could.
Pierce: I'll be living god!!
Even that (fictional) asshole vaxxed.
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:59 PM on December 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
Pierce: I'll be living god!!
Even that (fictional) asshole vaxxed.
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:59 PM on December 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney: “Probably, virtually everyone is going to be infected by this variant at some point."
posted by ZaphodB at 3:47 PM on December 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by ZaphodB at 3:47 PM on December 18, 2021 [1 favorite]
But then, yesterday, someone in the upper administration send me a four-line email, sternly telling me that I am not permitted to have an online exam, because it would be "confusing" and "unfair".
I read about this on reddit. Your provost is a moron.
And, what students need to do in this case is stage a walkout. No, you didn't tell them to do this. But then the media will publicize this.
posted by polymodus at 3:57 PM on December 18, 2021 [17 favorites]
I read about this on reddit. Your provost is a moron.
And, what students need to do in this case is stage a walkout. No, you didn't tell them to do this. But then the media will publicize this.
posted by polymodus at 3:57 PM on December 18, 2021 [17 favorites]
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney: “Probably, virtually everyone is going to be infected by this variant at some point."
Well given that they just relaxed the rules to allow unvaccinated from different households to socialize together indoors here in Alberta, I suspect this is one of those rare times that JK is probably right.
posted by piyushnz at 4:26 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
Well given that they just relaxed the rules to allow unvaccinated from different households to socialize together indoors here in Alberta, I suspect this is one of those rare times that JK is probably right.
posted by piyushnz at 4:26 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
the right wing may as well be Nurgle cultists,
I think this is the first time I've seen a WH40k reference on Metafilter, and a thread about a viral mutation in a pandemic is the perfect place for it.
Grimdark indeed.
posted by lord_wolf at 4:28 PM on December 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
I think this is the first time I've seen a WH40k reference on Metafilter, and a thread about a viral mutation in a pandemic is the perfect place for it.
Grimdark indeed.
posted by lord_wolf at 4:28 PM on December 18, 2021 [16 favorites]
I was told at the beginning of the semester that "any changes to course modality must be approved by the dean" and "health concerns are not a valid reason to change course modality." What the hell would be, I don't know.
Luckily I don't give a final exam so my students had their last class a week ago. I didn't realize then how much that may have protected them, at the time.
posted by brook horse at 4:39 PM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
Luckily I don't give a final exam so my students had their last class a week ago. I didn't realize then how much that may have protected them, at the time.
posted by brook horse at 4:39 PM on December 18, 2021 [12 favorites]
I mean, sure, but also maybe another good is that as of December 2021, NYC adults are 80%+ vaccinated (about 1 million with boosters.)
I suspect that people in NYC - people in NYC who are still alive, let’s be honest - have to be in one of the better situations in the U.S. as far as immunity. Take a look at the graph of cases vs. deaths there in the first wave vs. subsequently.
posted by atoxyl at 4:52 PM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
I suspect that people in NYC - people in NYC who are still alive, let’s be honest - have to be in one of the better situations in the U.S. as far as immunity. Take a look at the graph of cases vs. deaths there in the first wave vs. subsequently.
posted by atoxyl at 4:52 PM on December 18, 2021 [2 favorites]
Real wood furniture is expensive. Both in materials and in markup. (And it's heavy.) Nor is logging hardwood for furniture all that sustainable. Let's not have round two of the cart return war, but over IKEA and in the Covid thread.
Got my booster today, but it's a bit concerning reading estimates that it starts to fall off vs. omicron after a month or so.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:38 PM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
Got my booster today, but it's a bit concerning reading estimates that it starts to fall off vs. omicron after a month or so.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:38 PM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
Also don’t forget that mRNA vaccines can be adjusted in weeks and the factory capacity has been going up dramatically.
Yeah, but then we have to wait months to a year for the government offices to argue over whether or not we "need" it or not. Did it do ANY GOOD AT ALL to argue that we didn't "need" boosters?!!?!
Horace, I wish you could forward each one of those students’ emails to the Administration asshat , but I know you can’t,
The students need to make a stink on social media these days.
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:10 PM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
Yeah, but then we have to wait months to a year for the government offices to argue over whether or not we "need" it or not. Did it do ANY GOOD AT ALL to argue that we didn't "need" boosters?!!?!
Horace, I wish you could forward each one of those students’ emails to the Administration asshat , but I know you can’t,
The students need to make a stink on social media these days.
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:10 PM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
Particle board isn’t recyclable. It’s indicative of people’s willful ignorance or refusal to do what should be done for the greater good.
Recycling as a whole is kind of a joke, and one of the main problems is putting all the responsibility on individual people to understand and correctly sort their waste stream, rather than insist that companies have a lifecycle plan for what happens to their product after it is sold. "Aspirational recycling" is a huge phenomenon, and while some of it is laziness, a lot is people assuming that something should be recyclable, so into the bin it goes.
I'm not sure what the relevance of that is to the pandemic though, other than that it is a reasonable assumption that things will be considered at a systems level by those in charge and implemented accordingly... which is completely not happening.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:07 PM on December 18, 2021 [23 favorites]
Recycling as a whole is kind of a joke, and one of the main problems is putting all the responsibility on individual people to understand and correctly sort their waste stream, rather than insist that companies have a lifecycle plan for what happens to their product after it is sold. "Aspirational recycling" is a huge phenomenon, and while some of it is laziness, a lot is people assuming that something should be recyclable, so into the bin it goes.
I'm not sure what the relevance of that is to the pandemic though, other than that it is a reasonable assumption that things will be considered at a systems level by those in charge and implemented accordingly... which is completely not happening.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:07 PM on December 18, 2021 [23 favorites]
Northeastern University in Boston, which has its own testing lab, has started posting a breakdown of variants.
This morning, the results through Dec. 13 showed 14 total omicron cases (which was kind of startling because the Boston Public Health Commission announced on Dec. 15 what it said were Boston's first three confirmed omicron cases; does Northeastern not share data with the city?).
This afternoon, the school updated its figures through Dec. 14: 35 omicron cases. Who knows what the 15th will bring?
Meanwhile, across the river, Harvard announced today it is basically closing its campuses for the first three weeks of January, directing all employees who can to work remotely. It said it has yet to make a decision on whether students can return to classes as normal on Jan. 24.
posted by adamg at 7:29 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
This morning, the results through Dec. 13 showed 14 total omicron cases (which was kind of startling because the Boston Public Health Commission announced on Dec. 15 what it said were Boston's first three confirmed omicron cases; does Northeastern not share data with the city?).
This afternoon, the school updated its figures through Dec. 14: 35 omicron cases. Who knows what the 15th will bring?
Meanwhile, across the river, Harvard announced today it is basically closing its campuses for the first three weeks of January, directing all employees who can to work remotely. It said it has yet to make a decision on whether students can return to classes as normal on Jan. 24.
posted by adamg at 7:29 PM on December 18, 2021 [5 favorites]
Thank you for your supportive replies!!
Here's the plan. The exam will go ahead, in-person. However, I'm inviting students to write to me if they have some special reason to be concerned about the exam. I guess that many will, and I'll let them take the exam from home.
That way, there'll still be plenty of people in the room on exam day, so I can't be accused of breaking the rules by cancelling the exam. At the same time, students with immunocompromised relatives (or whatever) can stay away, and the number of people in the room will be lower, so there'll be less crowding and it'll be safer.
Not the best way to proceed, I think. But it's the best I've got.
posted by HoraceH at 9:07 PM on December 18, 2021 [53 favorites]
Here's the plan. The exam will go ahead, in-person. However, I'm inviting students to write to me if they have some special reason to be concerned about the exam. I guess that many will, and I'll let them take the exam from home.
That way, there'll still be plenty of people in the room on exam day, so I can't be accused of breaking the rules by cancelling the exam. At the same time, students with immunocompromised relatives (or whatever) can stay away, and the number of people in the room will be lower, so there'll be less crowding and it'll be safer.
Not the best way to proceed, I think. But it's the best I've got.
posted by HoraceH at 9:07 PM on December 18, 2021 [53 favorites]
If any of your students turn up, aren't they displaying terrible math skills? It'd be terrible if a rumor started that you were going to fail anyone who showed up in person...
posted by MrVisible at 9:12 PM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by MrVisible at 9:12 PM on December 18, 2021 [6 favorites]
I worry that so many politicians and administrators who are not themselves raving antivaxxers are falling over their own feet trying to placate the people who equate masking with "tyranny." It's cringeworthy, and I'd be tempted to just sit in the corner eyerolling at them if they didn't keep faceplanting right onto public health actions and entangling them.
Case in point from my university: the annual holiday video greeting sent out by administration to students, staff, and the wider community. This year's video greeting got sent out on Monday, the same day that the news cycle noticed that some universities were shutting down early for winter break because Covid was spiking in the student bodies. Oh, but shutdowns did not include my state university, which is in one of the "battleground states," with a bright red Republican majority gerrymandered into the legislature while the citizenry is purple. The Wisconsin legislature keeps passing bills banning various public health measures, and conservative talk radio hosts and YouTube influencers are in a constant state of enraged agitation about the evils of masks and "experimental vaccines." And pointed attention is directed at the state university system, in line with years of state conservative activism that painted university instructors as overpaid, lazy brainwashers of innocent youth. (Of course the state legislature passed a bill against teaching "critical race theory" this fall.)
Given this context, my university administration has been tapdancing through the entire pandemic, trying to limit Covid spread while constantly signaling to angry conservatives that no vaccine would ever be forced on any precious child, and that classroom masking requirements were temporary--reluctantly imposed because the CDC required it.
So the narrative administration presented for the fall was that though there would be no vaccine mandate, through a series of very tempting incentives, most students would be convinced to vaccinate. Courses would be held again in person, just as in the old days, though we'd unfortunately need to mask, because the CDC currently demanded it. But surely that mask mandate would soon lift as Covid inevitably became an issue of the past! And only the unvaccinated would need to be tested, so testing could be ramped way down. By the end of the semester, all of the disruption of the pandemic year would be behind us.
Well, it didn't work out that way, did it? But some time in the fall, some administrative committee started planning the content and production of the 2021 holiday greeting video. And they planned it to comport with the narrative. The video link went out in a mass email with the title "Hopeful for the Holidays," and the message "Ahhh, the holidays! This wonderful season brings hope as we look forward to spending time to relax and celebrate with family, friends and colleagues. Last year, we weren’t able to do so – at home or at work. Thank goodness we are able to remedy that this year."
The video itself was in all likelihood planned by a committee meeting via videoconference, and it starts with the chancellor and some students and staff in a faux Zoom meeting. Hilarity ensues! One student is sitting in the dark, someone forgets to unmute, a student athlete is in a noisy practice and has to be told to mute, and a cat knocks over someone else's laptop. After all this slapstick disruption, someone complains that the meeting isn't working, and so the chancellor tells everyone to meet up in person at the university mascot statue with their best friends and best smiles. (The statue is outside, you see, so university rules don't require masks.) And, unmasked and smooshed cheek by jowl into a big cheering pile around the statue, a group of about forty attendees all scream "Happy Holidays!" at the top of their aerosols, and throw confetti.
Omicron is taking hold in my state, which is bright red on the national Covid map, having a higher infection rate than it did last December. But dismissing social distancing and masks, at least outside, was described as "brainstorming the best way to wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday." Because apparently, Zoom presents a greater risk to us all than Covid does now.
I was pretty appalled, but there's been no overt pushback.
It's just sad, because it would have been so easy to make a holiday video about a Zoom meeting in which everyone demonstrates the expertise they've acquired at muting and unmuting appropriately, and connecting meaningfully in an online setting, and showing off fun holiday masks. Sigh.
posted by DrMew at 9:45 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
Case in point from my university: the annual holiday video greeting sent out by administration to students, staff, and the wider community. This year's video greeting got sent out on Monday, the same day that the news cycle noticed that some universities were shutting down early for winter break because Covid was spiking in the student bodies. Oh, but shutdowns did not include my state university, which is in one of the "battleground states," with a bright red Republican majority gerrymandered into the legislature while the citizenry is purple. The Wisconsin legislature keeps passing bills banning various public health measures, and conservative talk radio hosts and YouTube influencers are in a constant state of enraged agitation about the evils of masks and "experimental vaccines." And pointed attention is directed at the state university system, in line with years of state conservative activism that painted university instructors as overpaid, lazy brainwashers of innocent youth. (Of course the state legislature passed a bill against teaching "critical race theory" this fall.)
Given this context, my university administration has been tapdancing through the entire pandemic, trying to limit Covid spread while constantly signaling to angry conservatives that no vaccine would ever be forced on any precious child, and that classroom masking requirements were temporary--reluctantly imposed because the CDC required it.
So the narrative administration presented for the fall was that though there would be no vaccine mandate, through a series of very tempting incentives, most students would be convinced to vaccinate. Courses would be held again in person, just as in the old days, though we'd unfortunately need to mask, because the CDC currently demanded it. But surely that mask mandate would soon lift as Covid inevitably became an issue of the past! And only the unvaccinated would need to be tested, so testing could be ramped way down. By the end of the semester, all of the disruption of the pandemic year would be behind us.
Well, it didn't work out that way, did it? But some time in the fall, some administrative committee started planning the content and production of the 2021 holiday greeting video. And they planned it to comport with the narrative. The video link went out in a mass email with the title "Hopeful for the Holidays," and the message "Ahhh, the holidays! This wonderful season brings hope as we look forward to spending time to relax and celebrate with family, friends and colleagues. Last year, we weren’t able to do so – at home or at work. Thank goodness we are able to remedy that this year."
The video itself was in all likelihood planned by a committee meeting via videoconference, and it starts with the chancellor and some students and staff in a faux Zoom meeting. Hilarity ensues! One student is sitting in the dark, someone forgets to unmute, a student athlete is in a noisy practice and has to be told to mute, and a cat knocks over someone else's laptop. After all this slapstick disruption, someone complains that the meeting isn't working, and so the chancellor tells everyone to meet up in person at the university mascot statue with their best friends and best smiles. (The statue is outside, you see, so university rules don't require masks.) And, unmasked and smooshed cheek by jowl into a big cheering pile around the statue, a group of about forty attendees all scream "Happy Holidays!" at the top of their aerosols, and throw confetti.
Omicron is taking hold in my state, which is bright red on the national Covid map, having a higher infection rate than it did last December. But dismissing social distancing and masks, at least outside, was described as "brainstorming the best way to wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday." Because apparently, Zoom presents a greater risk to us all than Covid does now.
I was pretty appalled, but there's been no overt pushback.
It's just sad, because it would have been so easy to make a holiday video about a Zoom meeting in which everyone demonstrates the expertise they've acquired at muting and unmuting appropriately, and connecting meaningfully in an online setting, and showing off fun holiday masks. Sigh.
posted by DrMew at 9:45 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
trying to placate the people who equate masking with "tyranny."
I don't think it's the idiot antivax winged monkeys they're trying to placate so much as the Logan Roys flying them.
Rupert will have run the numbers and found out he can make more by ramping up fury and polarization in a world population reduced by 1% than he could off actually helping end the pandemic.
posted by flabdablet at 10:11 PM on December 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
I don't think it's the idiot antivax winged monkeys they're trying to placate so much as the Logan Roys flying them.
Rupert will have run the numbers and found out he can make more by ramping up fury and polarization in a world population reduced by 1% than he could off actually helping end the pandemic.
posted by flabdablet at 10:11 PM on December 18, 2021 [4 favorites]
There's R0, which is a measure of transmission in a naive population, and Rt, which is the actual observed rate of transmission at a given point in time. Rt appears higher for Omicron than it did for Delta, but we don't yet know whether this is because it's inherently more transmissible (higher R0), or because it's better at escaping existing immunity in a population, and thus only appears more transmissible because it has a broader range of hosts to infect.
Here's an article that argues that immune escape, rather than high R0, is the more likely culprit behind Omicron's high Rt. It has some interesting charts as well as this eye-popping map of mutations.
posted by dephlogisticated at 10:12 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
If Delta’s R0 is 6, an explanation for Omicron’s growth might be that it has about 40% escape from current immunity. Or it could have an R0 of 9 and 20% escape immunity. Or an R0 of 3 and above 80% escape.If R0 is higher for Omicron than Delta but immune escape is on the low side, then new infections will predominantly occur in people who are unvaccinated and/or naive. The Omicron wave will be devastating for this population, but will peak and fizzle out sooner as it runs out of vulnerable people to infect. If R0 is lower for Omicron but immune escape is high, then new infections will be distributed more evenly and the wave will persist for longer. However, if the virus has optimized itself for evasion rather than infectiousness, the average severity of illness may (possibly) be lower. This is what seemed to happen with the 1918 flu pandemic.
Here's an article that argues that immune escape, rather than high R0, is the more likely culprit behind Omicron's high Rt. It has some interesting charts as well as this eye-popping map of mutations.
posted by dephlogisticated at 10:12 PM on December 18, 2021 [25 favorites]
HoraceH, another idea is to give your students the questions ahead of time by some amount and say they can bring notes - i.e. essentially make it a take-home test that they’re just coming to hand in.
posted by eviemath at 11:42 PM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 11:42 PM on December 18, 2021 [8 favorites]
Anecdotally, things aren't looking great in my area and the data isn't any more reassuring. Art Basel could hardly have been at a worse time. Expect Florida to post some far more impressive case numbers very soon. I'm fairly certain that if the state weren't pathetically slow at gathering data and putting it out we'd already have posted two or three times the 6,800ish new cases that were in the last update, even with the fairly large chunk of folks who are just taking a home test and not bothering to follow up in a way that would be reported.
posted by wierdo at 3:05 AM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 3:05 AM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
My workplace is having the company holiday party on Wednesday and is planning on going back into the office on the 3rd.
I have no idea what the Greater NY Hot Spot will look like in two weeks, but I continue to hope that things change a bit. We’ve been fine working remotely, even spinning up three new people this year (me included). Two people even are 100% remote because even before the Great Plague Madness they lived in different states and that was fine. We need a PO Box and that’s it.
But no, the owner of the company is an old-school lawyer who “feels teams work better in proximity”, despite the fact we’ve had people with minor illnesses and injuries be able to work remotely when in-office they’d need to stay home, one person who quit this week because the back to office mandate means she had to choose between the job and taking care of her disabled mother, and they may lose me because there is no f’ing way that my wife and I can live in NYC or out closer to Port Washington on what our salaries are so we’d need to move farther away.
Madness, Omicron Madness.
posted by mephron at 6:07 AM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
I have no idea what the Greater NY Hot Spot will look like in two weeks, but I continue to hope that things change a bit. We’ve been fine working remotely, even spinning up three new people this year (me included). Two people even are 100% remote because even before the Great Plague Madness they lived in different states and that was fine. We need a PO Box and that’s it.
But no, the owner of the company is an old-school lawyer who “feels teams work better in proximity”, despite the fact we’ve had people with minor illnesses and injuries be able to work remotely when in-office they’d need to stay home, one person who quit this week because the back to office mandate means she had to choose between the job and taking care of her disabled mother, and they may lose me because there is no f’ing way that my wife and I can live in NYC or out closer to Port Washington on what our salaries are so we’d need to move farther away.
Madness, Omicron Madness.
posted by mephron at 6:07 AM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
DrMew, I'm also a Sconnie and a UW instructor and I feel you. I maliciously complied with the "you cannot change course modality to online without six layers of red tape" mandate by figuring they could make ME be there, but they couldn't make me make my students be there, so I'd Zoom-broadcast everything and give them the choice.
Most chose Zoom. It was fine.
My department chair gave us leave to use our discretion about working from home for the rest of the year; he also closed the library and the main office except to department affiliates (basically "people with keys"). I'm gratefully turtling up at home until (most likely) the start of spring semester.
It's a tough state to live in, Wisconsin is.
posted by humbug at 6:18 AM on December 19, 2021 [13 favorites]
Most chose Zoom. It was fine.
My department chair gave us leave to use our discretion about working from home for the rest of the year; he also closed the library and the main office except to department affiliates (basically "people with keys"). I'm gratefully turtling up at home until (most likely) the start of spring semester.
It's a tough state to live in, Wisconsin is.
posted by humbug at 6:18 AM on December 19, 2021 [13 favorites]
I wish when I heard about cases in my area I knew how many people who tested positive got exposed through being jackasses, and how many people were cautious, vaccinated, masked, etc and still got sick. I see things like this photo of a wrestling meet -- count the masks! I see one being worn properly! -- and get so frustrated.
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:35 AM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:35 AM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
I've been keeping a pretty regular eye on youtube updates from Dr John Campbell in the UK (I am in canada). Not sure how I tripped across him, frankly at this point unsure of his net credibility, but he SEEMS to be presenting current science with daily (sometimes multiple) updates and appears quite measured and thorough in his presentation.
The upshot of his presenttions over the last week or so is that omicron will spread extremely easily but that disease will be far less severe than delta.
Caveat emptor etc. if anyone else knows whether this fellow is either credible or a shadow lizard person, I'd love to hear about it. but for now I draw some comfort from his info.
link to main YT channel
posted by hearthpig at 8:37 AM on December 19, 2021
The upshot of his presenttions over the last week or so is that omicron will spread extremely easily but that disease will be far less severe than delta.
Caveat emptor etc. if anyone else knows whether this fellow is either credible or a shadow lizard person, I'd love to hear about it. but for now I draw some comfort from his info.
link to main YT channel
posted by hearthpig at 8:37 AM on December 19, 2021
No disrespect to you, hearthpig, but... He may or may not be consistently right, but he is a retired nurse. On this topic - where there is so much at stake, so many people are expressing their opinions, and our society's medical expertise credentialing mechanisms are generally clear and rigorous - I prefer to avoid any self-proclaimed expert whose credentials are modest and not based in virology or epidemiology, and whose main platform is their YouTube channel.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:00 AM on December 19, 2021 [28 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:00 AM on December 19, 2021 [28 favorites]
see things like this photo of a wrestling meet -- count the masks!
I miss Aikido. It's been two years nearly since I could pin people, and I'm not really sure I'll ever get to again. Are safe martial arts really gone for good?
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:32 AM on December 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
I miss Aikido. It's been two years nearly since I could pin people, and I'm not really sure I'll ever get to again. Are safe martial arts really gone for good?
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:32 AM on December 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
not sure what to do at this point. i haven't worked since march last year and unemployment ended because this whole virus thing was "over". just watching the money i saved up over the pandemic slowly trickle away to my landlord as i cut out as many other expenses as possible. i've got like 3, maybe 4 months left. i worked at fucking restaurants before this and i'm boosted but still too high risk to go back to that. didn't finish college, no marketable skills, no WFH experience, can't even find a call center job. we're just expected to live our lives like this? to risk it all to go to work and make $14 an hour, catch covid from some tourist, and then die? or deal with brain fog for the rest of my life or lose my sense of smell and taste? the government clearly doesn't give a shit about people like me. it seems like our elected officials actively hate us, all of us. so i'm not sure what to do at this point, really.
posted by JimBennett at 9:39 AM on December 19, 2021 [54 favorites]
posted by JimBennett at 9:39 AM on December 19, 2021 [54 favorites]
I've been following epidemiologist Twitter. It's terrifying.
posted by mecran01 at 9:42 AM on December 19, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by mecran01 at 9:42 AM on December 19, 2021 [7 favorites]
Most of the World’s Vaccines Likely Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron
They do seem to offer significant protection against severe illness, but the consequences of rapidly spreading infection worry many public health experts.
A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant.
All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world.
The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 9:47 AM on December 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
They do seem to offer significant protection against severe illness, but the consequences of rapidly spreading infection worry many public health experts.
A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant.
All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world.
The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 9:47 AM on December 19, 2021 [1 favorite]
The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.
Pretty much. mRNA you can just give another shot to get a wider library of antibodies which is why we're getting third shots and probably will have more shots before the crisis is over. Every time you give the body another 48 hours of spike virus it's trying another few billion combinations of antibodies to add to the books. Adenoviruses can't really be used more than twice because the body becomes immune to the carrier adenovirus and clears that infection before it can get to the cells to create the spike protein.
The next generation of COVID vaccines should have a live attenuated vaccine delivered straight to the nose in order to stimulate mucosal immunity. This should help generate more first line immunity and stop infections occurring in the first place. Plus they'll be shelf stable and fairly easy to produce in the squillions making it easier to get doses into the global south.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:12 AM on December 19, 2021 [19 favorites]
Pretty much. mRNA you can just give another shot to get a wider library of antibodies which is why we're getting third shots and probably will have more shots before the crisis is over. Every time you give the body another 48 hours of spike virus it's trying another few billion combinations of antibodies to add to the books. Adenoviruses can't really be used more than twice because the body becomes immune to the carrier adenovirus and clears that infection before it can get to the cells to create the spike protein.
The next generation of COVID vaccines should have a live attenuated vaccine delivered straight to the nose in order to stimulate mucosal immunity. This should help generate more first line immunity and stop infections occurring in the first place. Plus they'll be shelf stable and fairly easy to produce in the squillions making it easier to get doses into the global south.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:12 AM on December 19, 2021 [19 favorites]
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
Die.
If you are in a communal living situation like an apartment without a second, third or fourth residence to escape to in a pandemic you are a poor and your death will not be noticed by those who matter.
Ask yourself this: Have you heard of the management of any apartment building with onsite staff getting fined for not enforcing indoor masking mandates in the last two years? I haven't heard of a single one.
I've even ratted out my own building to the Chicago and Illinois authorities multiple times for willful non-compliance during the last 4 months of statewide indoor masking requirements and they have not contacted me nor done anything.
You may live with hundreds of other people in the same building as you, in a city with millions, but you are absolutely on your own.
Enjoy the libertarian paradise.
posted by srboisvert at 10:23 AM on December 19, 2021 [31 favorites]
Die.
If you are in a communal living situation like an apartment without a second, third or fourth residence to escape to in a pandemic you are a poor and your death will not be noticed by those who matter.
Ask yourself this: Have you heard of the management of any apartment building with onsite staff getting fined for not enforcing indoor masking mandates in the last two years? I haven't heard of a single one.
I've even ratted out my own building to the Chicago and Illinois authorities multiple times for willful non-compliance during the last 4 months of statewide indoor masking requirements and they have not contacted me nor done anything.
You may live with hundreds of other people in the same building as you, in a city with millions, but you are absolutely on your own.
Enjoy the libertarian paradise.
posted by srboisvert at 10:23 AM on December 19, 2021 [31 favorites]
Multiple extensive animal reservoirs, several varients with increased Ro or Rt, immune evasion of Omicron from vacines & prior infections, current containment methods losing compliance, current IP and vaccine distribution bottlenecks ensure we wont simultaneously get everyone vaxxed with a varient-current vaccine within any 6mo period, vaccine refusal, airborne transmission.
Long covid in some non trivial % of cases.
Our default model of the future should be everyone getting a covid varient multiple times despite profylaxis. We will have profound limitations on keeping critical institutions staffed with people who can perform under duress.
Hospitals obviously severly impaired. What of nuclear facilities and other critical infrastructure.
Look at how risk fatigued we are at the start of this omicron wave. I think its time to reread the breathlesa and hysterical posts from media and social media of two years ago and realize they are proving optimistic not pessimistic and that our discourse is so heavily biased toward "happily ever after" that we are rendered incompetant at collective mitigation.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 11:44 AM on December 19, 2021 [10 favorites]
Long covid in some non trivial % of cases.
Our default model of the future should be everyone getting a covid varient multiple times despite profylaxis. We will have profound limitations on keeping critical institutions staffed with people who can perform under duress.
Hospitals obviously severly impaired. What of nuclear facilities and other critical infrastructure.
Look at how risk fatigued we are at the start of this omicron wave. I think its time to reread the breathlesa and hysterical posts from media and social media of two years ago and realize they are proving optimistic not pessimistic and that our discourse is so heavily biased toward "happily ever after" that we are rendered incompetant at collective mitigation.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 11:44 AM on December 19, 2021 [10 favorites]
The problem with the third booster is that we lack clear data on the benefit of it, and if you follow the debates it becomes impossible to distinguish between reasonable precaution and wishful rationalizing for/against a third shot.
The virology says that the reason two shots are enough to prevent hospitalization and death is because Omicron is still protected against through cell-mediated immunity, since T cells and B cells don't depend on mutations in the spike. This is (likely) why in South Africa there is a surge in cases but a flatline in deaths. The vaccines still work just fine.
But American leaders and others around the world don't want any COVID, so they are taking a stronger stance. A third shot now, during a current wave, will restore antibody immunity (which naturally decays in the months after immunization), so that is supposed to reduce symptoms and transmission.
One problem with that position is that current evidence suggests that the full maturation of the human immune response against SARS-CoV-2 requires a 6 month interval between shots. This formation of immune memory is what provides long lasting and diverse protection against possible variants. So if people take a third shot now for the antibody/surge reasons, it is likely they will advised to get a fourth shot in the future for properly finishing off the immunization regimen.
posted by polymodus at 1:09 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
The virology says that the reason two shots are enough to prevent hospitalization and death is because Omicron is still protected against through cell-mediated immunity, since T cells and B cells don't depend on mutations in the spike. This is (likely) why in South Africa there is a surge in cases but a flatline in deaths. The vaccines still work just fine.
But American leaders and others around the world don't want any COVID, so they are taking a stronger stance. A third shot now, during a current wave, will restore antibody immunity (which naturally decays in the months after immunization), so that is supposed to reduce symptoms and transmission.
One problem with that position is that current evidence suggests that the full maturation of the human immune response against SARS-CoV-2 requires a 6 month interval between shots. This formation of immune memory is what provides long lasting and diverse protection against possible variants. So if people take a third shot now for the antibody/surge reasons, it is likely they will advised to get a fourth shot in the future for properly finishing off the immunization regimen.
posted by polymodus at 1:09 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
I've been following epidemiologist Twitter. It's terrifying.
It's not all bad news on epidemiology Twitter. There is suggestive data showing that despite a shorter time to hospitalization meaning that despite there having been enough time for progression to that stage that there isn't a huge spike in hospitalization among the vaccinated. Additionally, Omicron seems to favor the upper respiratory tract over lung tissue, so it may be less likely to cause permanent impairment of lung function.
That said, it's still spreading like wildfire and now there's a shortage of home tests in many areas so...
posted by wierdo at 1:28 PM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
It's not all bad news on epidemiology Twitter. There is suggestive data showing that despite a shorter time to hospitalization meaning that despite there having been enough time for progression to that stage that there isn't a huge spike in hospitalization among the vaccinated. Additionally, Omicron seems to favor the upper respiratory tract over lung tissue, so it may be less likely to cause permanent impairment of lung function.
That said, it's still spreading like wildfire and now there's a shortage of home tests in many areas so...
posted by wierdo at 1:28 PM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
One problem with that position is that current evidence suggests that the full maturation of the human immune response against SARS-CoV-2 requires a 6 month interval between shots. This formation of immune memory is what provides long lasting and diverse protection against possible variants. So if people take a third shot now for the antibody/surge reasons, it is likely they will advised to get a fourth shot in the future for properly finishing off the immunization regimen.
In most cases the three shots were not delivered within six weeks of each other unless people were extremely vaccine resistant at the start and then suddenly not. Many people will have easily had 6 months between their first shot and the booster.
posted by srboisvert at 2:08 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
In most cases the three shots were not delivered within six weeks of each other unless people were extremely vaccine resistant at the start and then suddenly not. Many people will have easily had 6 months between their first shot and the booster.
posted by srboisvert at 2:08 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
Yeah many privileged Americans, because many in that group started their vaccination as early as last January. The longer the interval, the better, supposedly.
But if you look around the vast rest of the world including in my province, people are clamoring for Omicron boosters and wondering why the authorities are telling them to consider waiting (until next year, well after these holidays). And immune maturation is just one reason why.
posted by polymodus at 2:24 PM on December 19, 2021
But if you look around the vast rest of the world including in my province, people are clamoring for Omicron boosters and wondering why the authorities are telling them to consider waiting (until next year, well after these holidays). And immune maturation is just one reason why.
posted by polymodus at 2:24 PM on December 19, 2021
Twice a year risks of catching something with a 1.65% kill rate is keeping me molten lava mad every time I put a mask on.
1.65% sounds unusually high for an IFR compared to almost all other estimates I've seen. Most of them seem to land in the 0.2-0.3% range (averaged across all demographics).
Is the 1.65% age-adjusted or comorbidity adjusted?
posted by theorique at 2:55 PM on December 19, 2021
1.65% sounds unusually high for an IFR compared to almost all other estimates I've seen. Most of them seem to land in the 0.2-0.3% range (averaged across all demographics).
Is the 1.65% age-adjusted or comorbidity adjusted?
posted by theorique at 2:55 PM on December 19, 2021
1.65% sounds unusually high for an IFR compared to almost all other estimates I've seen.
1.2 to 1.7 is the range of the Case Fatality Rate minimums throughout the pandemic for the US. It not an estimate. It's a known number. IFR is based off of models of theoretical infections and they have often been wildly off the mark.
posted by srboisvert at 3:40 PM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
1.2 to 1.7 is the range of the Case Fatality Rate minimums throughout the pandemic for the US. It not an estimate. It's a known number. IFR is based off of models of theoretical infections and they have often been wildly off the mark.
posted by srboisvert at 3:40 PM on December 19, 2021 [9 favorites]
800,000 in America have died of COVID. If the fatality rate were 0.2%, the population of the US would have to be 400,000,000 and 100% infected. (It's 330,000,000).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:32 PM on December 19, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:32 PM on December 19, 2021 [8 favorites]
Anecdotally, things aren't looking great in my area and the data isn't any more reassuring. Art Basel could hardly have been at a worse time. Expect Florida to post some far more impressive case numbers very soon.
Continuing on with that anecdote: in early December, I traveled down to south Florida for the art fairs in connection with my wife's professional activities. In my observation, the various big temporary pavilions on the beach for the flagship shows had probably 5-10% masking rate. This casualness initially surprised our friends from NY and Boston who had traveled in for the shows; for many months at home they have been accustomed to mandatory masking indoors with a high level of compliance.
After-hours activities in Miami Beach were pretty similar. In many ways they were probably riskier. For example, evening meetups were held at bars and restaurants where you had to speak loudly and/or closely to be heard. Mask wearing was even less in evidence there - I spent a few hours in a big hotel bar and conference center one of those nights and counted a total of zero masks on customers (some of the Uber drivers were wearing masks, though none of the bartenders or waitresses).
So I would certainly agree - if Omicron was around there at that time, I'm sure a lot of people were spreading it around to a lot of others.
----
Regarding the IFR/CFR, those numbers make sense. Thanks for the clarification. The CDC data tracker currently quotes:
The United States recently surpassed 50 million COVID-19 cases and 800,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
800000 / 50000000 = 0.016 which is exactly 1.6%
posted by theorique at 4:49 PM on December 19, 2021 [6 favorites]
Continuing on with that anecdote: in early December, I traveled down to south Florida for the art fairs in connection with my wife's professional activities. In my observation, the various big temporary pavilions on the beach for the flagship shows had probably 5-10% masking rate. This casualness initially surprised our friends from NY and Boston who had traveled in for the shows; for many months at home they have been accustomed to mandatory masking indoors with a high level of compliance.
After-hours activities in Miami Beach were pretty similar. In many ways they were probably riskier. For example, evening meetups were held at bars and restaurants where you had to speak loudly and/or closely to be heard. Mask wearing was even less in evidence there - I spent a few hours in a big hotel bar and conference center one of those nights and counted a total of zero masks on customers (some of the Uber drivers were wearing masks, though none of the bartenders or waitresses).
So I would certainly agree - if Omicron was around there at that time, I'm sure a lot of people were spreading it around to a lot of others.
----
Regarding the IFR/CFR, those numbers make sense. Thanks for the clarification. The CDC data tracker currently quotes:
The United States recently surpassed 50 million COVID-19 cases and 800,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
800000 / 50000000 = 0.016 which is exactly 1.6%
posted by theorique at 4:49 PM on December 19, 2021 [6 favorites]
I don’t have the skill/time to really check the math but this Twitter thread really made me think, especially quantifying the risks for double vaxxed seniors.
posted by warriorqueen at 4:54 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by warriorqueen at 4:54 PM on December 19, 2021 [4 favorites]
Thanks for linking to that Twitter thread of estimates, although it's a case study in why Twitter thread are a poor way of conveying data and analysis and conclusions. It would have been much better if she had written and edited a Medium post and then posted one tweet with a link to it.
posted by PhineasGage at 5:01 PM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 5:01 PM on December 19, 2021 [2 favorites]
pondering why particleboard shelving is a significant omen.
It means we're dömd.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:17 PM on December 19, 2021 [7 favorites]
It means we're dömd.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:17 PM on December 19, 2021 [7 favorites]
When historians of the future look back on the political nonsense, the profiteering, the infrastructure collapse, and above all the death toll, I bet they will clearly see this was World War III fought with memes and viruses instead of guns and bombs.
I'm curious how people see this pandemic "above all the death toll" as comparable to a World War. WWII killed around 80 million people in a world population of 2.3 billion, which was around 3% of the world population (source)
Covid has killed around 5.9 million people (source) in a world population of around 7.7 billion. That's about 0.07% of the world population. That's a lot of people, but as a percentage of world population, it's about one fiftieth of the impact of World War II. Maybe you think the death toll will double? That's one twenty-fifth the impact of WWII.
The death toll of WWII and Covid-19 seem worlds apart to me.
posted by ManInSuit at 9:22 PM on December 19, 2021 [10 favorites]
I'm curious how people see this pandemic "above all the death toll" as comparable to a World War. WWII killed around 80 million people in a world population of 2.3 billion, which was around 3% of the world population (source)
Covid has killed around 5.9 million people (source) in a world population of around 7.7 billion. That's about 0.07% of the world population. That's a lot of people, but as a percentage of world population, it's about one fiftieth of the impact of World War II. Maybe you think the death toll will double? That's one twenty-fifth the impact of WWII.
The death toll of WWII and Covid-19 seem worlds apart to me.
posted by ManInSuit at 9:22 PM on December 19, 2021 [10 favorites]
hearthpig: I've been keeping a pretty regular eye on youtube updates from Dr John Campbell in the UK (I am in canada). Not sure how I tripped across him, frankly at this point unsure of his net credibility, but he SEEMS to be presenting current science with daily (sometimes multiple) updates and appears quite measured and thorough in his presentation.
I'm not an expert but I direct you to the comments of Dr Rohin Francis (MedlifeCrisis) who recently commented on this. From what I could gather, Campbell was spreading a lot of misinformation. Link.
I'm not an expert but I direct you to the comments of Dr Rohin Francis (MedlifeCrisis) who recently commented on this. From what I could gather, Campbell was spreading a lot of misinformation. Link.
I believe John’s intentions are good and he is not deliberately trying to mislead, but he does not critically appraise the data he presents, and as I’m sure you know, the medical literature is full of shit.posted by Acey at 10:37 PM on December 19, 2021 [6 favorites]
Mod note: Folks, please drop the particleboard derail now. Thanks.
posted by taz (staff) at 11:34 PM on December 19, 2021 [14 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 11:34 PM on December 19, 2021 [14 favorites]
One problem with that position is that current evidence suggests that the full maturation of the human immune response against SARS-CoV-2 requires a 6 month interval between shots. This formation of immune memory is what provides long lasting and diverse protection against possible variants. So if people take a third shot now for the antibody/surge reasons, it is likely they will advised to get a fourth shot in the future for properly finishing off the immunization regimen.
I would think many boosted people would have had either a long interval between their first two shots or between the second and third, right?
posted by atrazine at 2:41 AM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
I would think many boosted people would have had either a long interval between their first two shots or between the second and third, right?
posted by atrazine at 2:41 AM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think so. I'm in a higher risk category so I got my second shot in early April (from soldiers in a freezing cold empty concrete block of a building, an experience I will never forget) and got my booster in mid-November. 7 months and change between.
posted by lazaruslong at 3:37 AM on December 20, 2021
posted by lazaruslong at 3:37 AM on December 20, 2021
Unfortunately the true death toll is already much, much higher than the ‘official’ numbers. While it is significantly below all of WWII’s total deaths, it is nothing to scoff at already.
The Economist has been publishing a well regarded estimate for many months now, their number currently stands at 18.3 million deaths from Covid-19. An explanation is here, they currently use a 3.4 multiplier over the official total.
Most of the WWII comparisons I’ve seen have been specific to the United States total loss, which has already been long surpassed internally. I can see why the world numbers would be a convenient comparison for the ‘Covid is not that bad deniers’ to latch onto as a disingenuous ‘No true Scotsman,’ there is always something worse comparison. Conveniently overlooking the fact that lockdowns, masks, vaccines and other policies have kept the numbers down to where they are now.
Given that 2021 has already exceeded 2020’s total deaths, it sadly doesn’t look like 2022 is necessarily going to be better. I really want us to finally get this blasted disease under control.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:41 AM on December 20, 2021 [10 favorites]
The Economist has been publishing a well regarded estimate for many months now, their number currently stands at 18.3 million deaths from Covid-19. An explanation is here, they currently use a 3.4 multiplier over the official total.
Most of the WWII comparisons I’ve seen have been specific to the United States total loss, which has already been long surpassed internally. I can see why the world numbers would be a convenient comparison for the ‘Covid is not that bad deniers’ to latch onto as a disingenuous ‘No true Scotsman,’ there is always something worse comparison. Conveniently overlooking the fact that lockdowns, masks, vaccines and other policies have kept the numbers down to where they are now.
Given that 2021 has already exceeded 2020’s total deaths, it sadly doesn’t look like 2022 is necessarily going to be better. I really want us to finally get this blasted disease under control.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:41 AM on December 20, 2021 [10 favorites]
I would think many boosted people would have had either a long interval between their first two shots or between the second and third, right?
Yes, at least in my state they would not let me sign up for a booster appointment until 6 months to the day from my 2nd shot's all-clear. Like not even one day sooner.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 9:00 AM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
Yes, at least in my state they would not let me sign up for a booster appointment until 6 months to the day from my 2nd shot's all-clear. Like not even one day sooner.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 9:00 AM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
To pile onto the WWII comparison criticism.
WWII is over; Covid is just starting. What were deaths in WWII at in Dec 1940?
Besides, two things can be terrible and different in their metrics. How many US-Iraq wars is covid? How many Yugoslavias per sq mile is it? How many Aids-x-typhoon hyans.
How does it compare to tobacco, coal or kardashians?
Covid is a global disaster, we have a hard time wrapping our heads around it because its imense, chronic, incomplete, changing and scary/numbing. And when the next bad thing comes we will dismiss it because it wont be as bad as covid.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 9:14 AM on December 20, 2021 [6 favorites]
WWII is over; Covid is just starting. What were deaths in WWII at in Dec 1940?
Besides, two things can be terrible and different in their metrics. How many US-Iraq wars is covid? How many Yugoslavias per sq mile is it? How many Aids-x-typhoon hyans.
How does it compare to tobacco, coal or kardashians?
Covid is a global disaster, we have a hard time wrapping our heads around it because its imense, chronic, incomplete, changing and scary/numbing. And when the next bad thing comes we will dismiss it because it wont be as bad as covid.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 9:14 AM on December 20, 2021 [6 favorites]
To put this in perspective, in 2019, the worldwide figures for communicable diseases had tuberculosis as the top killer with 1.2 million deaths. HIV/AIDS was second with 675,000.
Different studies parse these numbers in different ways, such as combining all respiratory infections or all infectious diarrheas.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:26 AM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
Different studies parse these numbers in different ways, such as combining all respiratory infections or all infectious diarrheas.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:26 AM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
A Washington State senator died at 52 after a Covid infection.
Doug Eriksen was a real piece of work, spreading vaccine and virus disinformation here and abroad. It is interesting how much coverage his death is getting outside of Washington State media.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:17 AM on December 20, 2021 [8 favorites]
Doug Eriksen was a real piece of work, spreading vaccine and virus disinformation here and abroad. It is interesting how much coverage his death is getting outside of Washington State media.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:17 AM on December 20, 2021 [8 favorites]
They sucked his brains out!: Doug Eriksen was a real piece of work, spreading vaccine and virus disinformation here and abroad.
Talk about being dead wrong.
(Any nonpaywalled link plz? I could do with a bit of gloating.)
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:21 AM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
Talk about being dead wrong.
(Any nonpaywalled link plz? I could do with a bit of gloating.)
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:21 AM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
Hopefully at least one of these two links work for you:
Washington state Sen. Doug Ericksen dies after COVID battle (Associated Press)
Washington state Sen. Doug Ericksen dies after COVID battle (Associated Press)
Ericksen was a former leader of Donald Trump’s campaign in Washington. He also was an outspoken critic of Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee’s COVID-19 emergency orders, and had introduced legislation aimed at protecting the rights of people who do not wish to get vaccinated.State senator dies a month after telling a local radio station he was sick with Covid-19 while in El Salvador (CNN)
Ericksen had repeatedly called for the resignation of Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, in numerous posts on his website. His latest news release, dated November 1, said the state was the "national leader in authoritarian government."posted by cynical pinnacle at 11:23 AM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
"Throughout this COVID situation, Inslee has been out of step with the rest of the country," Ericksen said in the release. "He says his vengeful act was based on science, but it's certainly not the science understood by public health officials and elected leaders in every other state of the union."(/blockquote)
One problem with that position is that current evidence suggests that the full maturation of the human immune response against SARS-CoV-2 requires a 6 month interval between shots.
Do you have a cite for this? Everything I have read about boosters has been basing their timing on the waning efficacy of the two-dose primary series over time and the availability of booster doses, not on immune response to the booster itself.
My understanding is that we don't really know anything like this with any kind of certainty. Given the severe threat posed by Omicon and the preliminary data showing much higher efficacy for booster versus two-dose primary against it, boosters as fast as possible looks like a very reasonable response. I think you could certainly make an ethical argument that we should instead ship those doses overseas, but it seems pretty clear that a booster now is highly valuable if we're not factoring in that side of it (which, let's admit, we definitely aren't right now).
And the majority of folks who are in line to get boosters now got their primary shots about six months ago anyways.
posted by ssg at 2:11 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
Do you have a cite for this? Everything I have read about boosters has been basing their timing on the waning efficacy of the two-dose primary series over time and the availability of booster doses, not on immune response to the booster itself.
My understanding is that we don't really know anything like this with any kind of certainty. Given the severe threat posed by Omicon and the preliminary data showing much higher efficacy for booster versus two-dose primary against it, boosters as fast as possible looks like a very reasonable response. I think you could certainly make an ethical argument that we should instead ship those doses overseas, but it seems pretty clear that a booster now is highly valuable if we're not factoring in that side of it (which, let's admit, we definitely aren't right now).
And the majority of folks who are in line to get boosters now got their primary shots about six months ago anyways.
posted by ssg at 2:11 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
Yes, could everyone please include links with their assertions? We're a bunch of (mostly) amateur epidemiologists, virologists, and medical providers, so argument from authority, with actual citations, should be a pretty firm guideline on a topic like this.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2021 [7 favorites]
Most of the WWII comparisons I’ve seen have been specific to the United States total loss, which has already been long surpassed internally.
Yes, all of the extremely widespread WWII comparisons have been specifically about the United States death toll. Which is interesting because the United States was one of the few countries on the entire planet left relatively unscathed by WWII. It seems like a dodgy sleight of hand, taking advantage of the war's well-deserved reputation as a terrible, bloody conflict to mislead by comparing Covid only in the one corner of the world that was relatively unaffected. Probably the only countries less affected in terms of deaths would be the few neutral powers that managed to actually preserve their neutrality...
posted by makomk at 3:37 PM on December 20, 2021 [5 favorites]
Yes, all of the extremely widespread WWII comparisons have been specifically about the United States death toll. Which is interesting because the United States was one of the few countries on the entire planet left relatively unscathed by WWII. It seems like a dodgy sleight of hand, taking advantage of the war's well-deserved reputation as a terrible, bloody conflict to mislead by comparing Covid only in the one corner of the world that was relatively unaffected. Probably the only countries less affected in terms of deaths would be the few neutral powers that managed to actually preserve their neutrality...
posted by makomk at 3:37 PM on December 20, 2021 [5 favorites]
CDC estimates that 73.2% of new infections in the US are the Omicron variant.
posted by meowzilla at 4:04 PM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by meowzilla at 4:04 PM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
True, I totally agree about how the US was less affected than many of the other countries during WWII. But with Covid, on the other hand, we have the highest total deaths of any country in the world, easily, and the highest per capita rate for a ‘first world country.’
But comparing all of WWII’s casualties for the entire world is an even bigger sleight of hand than comparing one country’s totals against COVID’s. The US comparison makes sense as it is a historical event that we still use as a yardstick to measure other events against. (Not to mention that we’ve surpassed the past centuries’ wars easily as well.)
The thing is, it really doesn’t need to be compared. It stands on its own as a tragedy of truly epic proportions, and one that we won’t have a final tally for soon if at all.
And once again, we ignore the Long Term Covid sufferers, who already number in the millions here…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:27 PM on December 20, 2021 [6 favorites]
But comparing all of WWII’s casualties for the entire world is an even bigger sleight of hand than comparing one country’s totals against COVID’s. The US comparison makes sense as it is a historical event that we still use as a yardstick to measure other events against. (Not to mention that we’ve surpassed the past centuries’ wars easily as well.)
The thing is, it really doesn’t need to be compared. It stands on its own as a tragedy of truly epic proportions, and one that we won’t have a final tally for soon if at all.
And once again, we ignore the Long Term Covid sufferers, who already number in the millions here…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:27 PM on December 20, 2021 [6 favorites]
Millions? Where are you getting any estimate of the number of Long COVID sufferers? It's not even a defined thing. Could we please stop with the vague catastrophizing?!
posted by PhineasGage at 4:41 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:41 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
we have the highest total deaths of any country in the world, easily,
Only if you don't consider massive underreporting in, say, India. (That is an NPR link so should not be paywalled, I believe.)
posted by Dip Flash at 5:00 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
Only if you don't consider massive underreporting in, say, India. (That is an NPR link so should not be paywalled, I believe.)
posted by Dip Flash at 5:00 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
Millions? Where are you getting any estimate of the number of Long COVID sufferers? It's not even a defined thing. Could we please stop with the vague catastrophizing?!
Incidence, co-occurrence, and evolution of long-COVID features: A 6-month retrospective cohort study of 273,618 survivors of COVID-19
posted by brook horse at 5:13 PM on December 20, 2021 [18 favorites]
Incidence, co-occurrence, and evolution of long-COVID features: A 6-month retrospective cohort study of 273,618 survivors of COVID-19
Among COVID-19 survivors (mean [SD] age: 46.3 [19.8], 55.6% female), 57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period (i.e., including the acute phase), and 36.55% between 3 and 6 months. The incidence of each feature was: abnormal breathing (18.71% in the 1- to 180-day period; 7.94% in the 90- to180-day period), fatigue/malaise (12.82%; 5.87%), chest/throat pain (12.60%; 5.71%), headache (8.67%; 4.63%), other pain (11.60%; 7.19%), abdominal symptoms (15.58%; 8.29%), myalgia (3.24%; 1.54%), cognitive symptoms (7.88%; 3.95%), and anxiety/depression (22.82%; 15.49%).Caveats for this not including people who did not seek any medical attention for COVID among other limitations. But even if the number were an extremely conservative 2 million, that's 4% of COVID-19 cases. I doubt the researchers were off by that much. So yes, millions. Whether millions of them are actually disabled by those numbers is totally different from just "reporting one symptom" but yes, millions of people continue to have symptoms afterwards.
posted by brook horse at 5:13 PM on December 20, 2021 [18 favorites]
This info from Science Daily/Penn State may be useful in framing the potential number of long COVID cases.
posted by vers at 5:15 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by vers at 5:15 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
#BESTCHRISTMASEVER
posted by blue_beetle at 5:17 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by blue_beetle at 5:17 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
From that Science Daily article it says the data were collected from unvaccinated people who got COVID. 79% were hospitalized. I suspect the 57% is much lower if you consider all cases and those vaccinated.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:47 PM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:47 PM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
Oh yes, it is all just ‘vague catastrophizing…’
From “Long COVID: An overview” by the conspiracy theory laden NIH.gov:
1.3. “Long COVID”-real world scenario
A report from Italy found that 87% of people recovered and discharged from hospitals showed persistence of at least one symptom even at 60 days [16]. Of these 32% had one or two symptoms, where as 55% had three or more. Fever or features of acute illness was not seen in these patients. The commonly reported problems were fatigue (53.1%), worsened quality of life (44.1%), dyspnoea (43.4%), joint pain, (27.3%) and chest pain (21.7%). Cough, skin rashes, palpitations, headache, diarrhea, and ‘pins and needles’ sensation were the other symptoms reported. Patients also reported inability to do routine daily activities, in addition to mental health issues such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.
Another study found that COVID-19 patients discharged from hospital experience breathlessness and excessive fatigue even at 3 months [17].
The prevalence of residual symptoms is about 35% in patients treated for COVID-19 on outpatient basis, but around 87% among cohorts of hospitalized patients [16,18].
The percentage of people, who failed to return to their job at 14–21 days after becoming COVID positive, was 35% according to one survey [18]. It is more common in older age groups (26% in 18–34 years, 32% in 35–49 years and 47% in 50 years and above), and among those with co morbidities (28% with nil or one co-morbidity, 46% with two and 57% with three or more co morbidities). Obesity (BMI>30) and presence of psychiatric conditions (anxiety disorder, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, paranoia, obsessive-compulsive disorder and schizophrenia) are associated with greater than two-fold odds of not returning to job by 14–21 days after a positive result [18]. Fever and chills present in the acute stage of infection resolved in 97% and 96% of individuals respectively. But cough, fatigue and shortness of breath did not resolve in 43%, 35% and 29% of patients during interview. Loss of taste and loss of smell took longer duration for resolution (8 days). As per a recent meta analysis the 5 most common manifestations of Long COVID-19 were fatigue (58%), headache (44%), attention disorder (27%), hair loss (25%), dyspnea (24%) [19].
Among patients admitted to critical care unit who were on ventilator for a prolonged time, residual symptoms are common. However, COVID patients who had mild disease also report not regaining their pre-COVID health status, effectively questioning the terminology of “mild” disease.
There’s a lot more from reputable sources if you’d bother to look. And yes, we don’t really know how many people will fully recover over the long term, it is too early to know. Covid-19 has the potential to wreck havoc in countless ways, which was a surprise to many experts.
It even already is defined under the ADA: Guidance on “Long COVID” as a Disability Under the ADA, Section 504, and Section 1557
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:52 PM on December 20, 2021 [12 favorites]
From “Long COVID: An overview” by the conspiracy theory laden NIH.gov:
1.3. “Long COVID”-real world scenario
A report from Italy found that 87% of people recovered and discharged from hospitals showed persistence of at least one symptom even at 60 days [16]. Of these 32% had one or two symptoms, where as 55% had three or more. Fever or features of acute illness was not seen in these patients. The commonly reported problems were fatigue (53.1%), worsened quality of life (44.1%), dyspnoea (43.4%), joint pain, (27.3%) and chest pain (21.7%). Cough, skin rashes, palpitations, headache, diarrhea, and ‘pins and needles’ sensation were the other symptoms reported. Patients also reported inability to do routine daily activities, in addition to mental health issues such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.
Another study found that COVID-19 patients discharged from hospital experience breathlessness and excessive fatigue even at 3 months [17].
The prevalence of residual symptoms is about 35% in patients treated for COVID-19 on outpatient basis, but around 87% among cohorts of hospitalized patients [16,18].
The percentage of people, who failed to return to their job at 14–21 days after becoming COVID positive, was 35% according to one survey [18]. It is more common in older age groups (26% in 18–34 years, 32% in 35–49 years and 47% in 50 years and above), and among those with co morbidities (28% with nil or one co-morbidity, 46% with two and 57% with three or more co morbidities). Obesity (BMI>30) and presence of psychiatric conditions (anxiety disorder, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, paranoia, obsessive-compulsive disorder and schizophrenia) are associated with greater than two-fold odds of not returning to job by 14–21 days after a positive result [18]. Fever and chills present in the acute stage of infection resolved in 97% and 96% of individuals respectively. But cough, fatigue and shortness of breath did not resolve in 43%, 35% and 29% of patients during interview. Loss of taste and loss of smell took longer duration for resolution (8 days). As per a recent meta analysis the 5 most common manifestations of Long COVID-19 were fatigue (58%), headache (44%), attention disorder (27%), hair loss (25%), dyspnea (24%) [19].
Among patients admitted to critical care unit who were on ventilator for a prolonged time, residual symptoms are common. However, COVID patients who had mild disease also report not regaining their pre-COVID health status, effectively questioning the terminology of “mild” disease.
There’s a lot more from reputable sources if you’d bother to look. And yes, we don’t really know how many people will fully recover over the long term, it is too early to know. Covid-19 has the potential to wreck havoc in countless ways, which was a surprise to many experts.
It even already is defined under the ADA: Guidance on “Long COVID” as a Disability Under the ADA, Section 504, and Section 1557
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:52 PM on December 20, 2021 [12 favorites]
Helpful to see these statistics, which as pointed out above look particularly dire for those who were hospitalized. The sources you cite, though, seem to gainsay your assertion that "And once again, we ignore the Long Term Covid sufferers." The whole world is paying attention, as it should be.
posted by PhineasGage at 7:31 PM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 7:31 PM on December 20, 2021 [2 favorites]
The whole world is paying attention, as it should be.
If the world is paying attention to long COVID how come the case number graphs have gone straight vertical the past four weeks?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:40 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
If the world is paying attention to long COVID how come the case number graphs have gone straight vertical the past four weeks?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:40 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
That French study is complete nonsense. What they actually showed is that 1) their test for antibodies was not very accurate (it had significant numbers of false positives and false negatives) and 2) a significant proportion of people who have Covid do not seroconvert, i.e. they don't create antibodies. That plus the regular messy data that you get from self-reported surveys is a much more reasonable explanation for their results than what they came up with. It doesn't take a whole lot of false negatives or non-seroconverters to add up to a sizeable cohort of people who actually had Covid but are classed as "didn't have Covid" in their analysis, because the total size of the group is not very large.
It looks a lot like the authors have some pre-existing beliefs that have led them astray in their conclusions. You'd think that when their results came back with a significant number of people who told them they had a positive test result in the "didn't have Covid" category, they would have stopped and reconsidered, but unfortunately that didn't happen.
This is definitely one of those cases where reading the original paper is a lot more illuminating than reading somebody's blog about it.
For long Covid in general, the studies are all over the map. Some have a few percent of people reporting symptoms three months later, others have 50% reporting at least one symptoms six months later. Clearly a lot of the research is wrong. We desperately need a lot better data.
I think it's reasonable to assume that experiencing long Covid symptoms six months out is probably reasonably common. Whether it is 15% or 5%, it's still a whole lot of people with significant problems. There are also clearly a significant number of people who still haven't recovered for 18 months or longer now, which we know also happens with other post-infectious illnesses, so long Covid is likely a pretty significant risk for people under 50 or so, who are very unlikely to die of acute infection.
posted by ssg at 7:44 PM on December 20, 2021 [8 favorites]
It looks a lot like the authors have some pre-existing beliefs that have led them astray in their conclusions. You'd think that when their results came back with a significant number of people who told them they had a positive test result in the "didn't have Covid" category, they would have stopped and reconsidered, but unfortunately that didn't happen.
This is definitely one of those cases where reading the original paper is a lot more illuminating than reading somebody's blog about it.
For long Covid in general, the studies are all over the map. Some have a few percent of people reporting symptoms three months later, others have 50% reporting at least one symptoms six months later. Clearly a lot of the research is wrong. We desperately need a lot better data.
I think it's reasonable to assume that experiencing long Covid symptoms six months out is probably reasonably common. Whether it is 15% or 5%, it's still a whole lot of people with significant problems. There are also clearly a significant number of people who still haven't recovered for 18 months or longer now, which we know also happens with other post-infectious illnesses, so long Covid is likely a pretty significant risk for people under 50 or so, who are very unlikely to die of acute infection.
posted by ssg at 7:44 PM on December 20, 2021 [8 favorites]
What the hell are people living in apartments supposed to do?
In addition to the advice above (high quality mask on before opening the door, air filter) one thing I am maybe adding back to my precautions is opening the windows when I get back in and circulating the air with window fans for 15-30 minutes. I did this during the surge last winter, before I could get vaccinated. Polar vortex weeks included. Looking back on this, I have felt like maybe that was over the top, but here we are again.
I am in an almost 100% democratic area but nonetheless, haven't seen any of my neighbors wearing a mask in months, and many weren't doing it even when there was a mask mandate.
And after someone from my landlord's maintenance staff showed up at my door without a mask also a couple weeks ago, I'm planning to just DIY some minor repairs that my landlord really should take care of. (They don't give a shit about doing things correctly so I will probably do a better job as a novice grout repairer or whatever anyway.)
Die.
If you are in a communal living situation like an apartment without a second, third or fourth residence to escape to in a pandemic you are a poor and your death will not be noticed by those who matter.
Or this, I guess!
posted by Squalor Victoria at 9:50 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
In addition to the advice above (high quality mask on before opening the door, air filter) one thing I am maybe adding back to my precautions is opening the windows when I get back in and circulating the air with window fans for 15-30 minutes. I did this during the surge last winter, before I could get vaccinated. Polar vortex weeks included. Looking back on this, I have felt like maybe that was over the top, but here we are again.
I am in an almost 100% democratic area but nonetheless, haven't seen any of my neighbors wearing a mask in months, and many weren't doing it even when there was a mask mandate.
And after someone from my landlord's maintenance staff showed up at my door without a mask also a couple weeks ago, I'm planning to just DIY some minor repairs that my landlord really should take care of. (They don't give a shit about doing things correctly so I will probably do a better job as a novice grout repairer or whatever anyway.)
Die.
If you are in a communal living situation like an apartment without a second, third or fourth residence to escape to in a pandemic you are a poor and your death will not be noticed by those who matter.
Or this, I guess!
posted by Squalor Victoria at 9:50 PM on December 20, 2021 [3 favorites]
This video of the line at Miami's 24/7 drive through testing site was taken at 11:35PM on Monday night. On the one hand, it's good that people are getting tested, but unless they're all just there to get cleared for travel it sure doesn't bode well for the next couple of weeks.
posted by wierdo at 2:00 AM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 2:00 AM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
Only if you don't consider massive underreporting in, say, India. (That is an NPR link so should not be paywalled, I believe.)
Which pretty much the entire mainstream media in the US seems to ignore when comparing their deaths to the rest of the world, along with not adjusting for the vast difference in population size between the US and almost every other country. It's really frustrating. The media is doing an absolutely awful job at actually informing people. Their narratives also spill over to other countries like the UK; now that we're middle of the pack amongst European countries in terms of Covid deaths per capita, everyone who doesn't falsely believe we're the worst in Europe seems to continue to point to total deaths and global rankings containing a whole bunch of countries with no accurate reporting.
posted by makomk at 2:39 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Which pretty much the entire mainstream media in the US seems to ignore when comparing their deaths to the rest of the world, along with not adjusting for the vast difference in population size between the US and almost every other country. It's really frustrating. The media is doing an absolutely awful job at actually informing people. Their narratives also spill over to other countries like the UK; now that we're middle of the pack amongst European countries in terms of Covid deaths per capita, everyone who doesn't falsely believe we're the worst in Europe seems to continue to point to total deaths and global rankings containing a whole bunch of countries with no accurate reporting.
posted by makomk at 2:39 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Their narratives also spill over to other countries like the UK; now that we're middle of the pack amongst European countries in terms of Covid deaths per capita, everyone who doesn't falsely believe we're the worst in Europe seems to continue to point to total deaths and global rankings containing a whole bunch of countries with no accurate reporting.
There are three types of British people. Two large groups who believe, regardless of evidence that the UK is either the world's best or worst run country and a small group of sane people who understand that it's more or less just a normal European country and not particularly an outlier in many regards. This extends to Covid as well.
posted by atrazine at 3:28 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
There are three types of British people. Two large groups who believe, regardless of evidence that the UK is either the world's best or worst run country and a small group of sane people who understand that it's more or less just a normal European country and not particularly an outlier in many regards. This extends to Covid as well.
posted by atrazine at 3:28 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
While I totally agree about the underreporting issues regarding cases/deaths/symptoms, it drives me nuts how it is utilized to downplay and misrepresent things, but what is the solution?
Official numbers are something that is routinely used in reporting because there is limited time and energy to cover a story. High quality estimates are useful, but it takes a lot of extra work to vet them and using them can open a huge can of worms that makes it easier to claim bias against the authors from both sides. Just picture how much worse Fox News would be if they had an even easier time choosing whichever estimate fitted their narrative that they could treat as being ‘official’ or final…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:26 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Official numbers are something that is routinely used in reporting because there is limited time and energy to cover a story. High quality estimates are useful, but it takes a lot of extra work to vet them and using them can open a huge can of worms that makes it easier to claim bias against the authors from both sides. Just picture how much worse Fox News would be if they had an even easier time choosing whichever estimate fitted their narrative that they could treat as being ‘official’ or final…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:26 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
In my Dutch newspaper today:
Furthermore...
Oh wait...
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:55 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Number of positive corona-tests below 10,000 for the first time in weeksSo, that sounds like good news, right?
Between Monday and Tuesday morning, the RIVM registered 9,450 positive corona-tests. This is the first time since 3 November that the number is below 10,000. This is 2,770 fewer positive tests than in the previous 24 hours.
Furthermore...
Number of positive coronavirus tests 19 percent lower than last weekWow! Sounds like things are looking up.
RIVM received 94,864 positive corona-tests last week, a decrease of 19 percent compared to the previous week.
Oh wait...
However, the proportion of positive tests in the total number of tests carried out rose from 23.4% to 23.9%.So basically, the number of positive tests went down because fewer people got tested. Yay?
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:55 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
So basically, the number of positive tests went down because fewer people got tested. Yay?
I wouldn't be shocked if there are a lot of people who aren't getting tested at this point even if they have symptoms simply because they know a positive result would cancel their Christmas plans. I bet that after Christmas we see a big surge in the number of positive tests all over, not only due to families mingling, but also because people who have been putting it off as "just a cold" will finally go and get tested.
posted by fight or flight at 9:20 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
I wouldn't be shocked if there are a lot of people who aren't getting tested at this point even if they have symptoms simply because they know a positive result would cancel their Christmas plans. I bet that after Christmas we see a big surge in the number of positive tests all over, not only due to families mingling, but also because people who have been putting it off as "just a cold" will finally go and get tested.
posted by fight or flight at 9:20 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
I wouldn't be shocked if there are a lot of people who aren't getting tested at this point even if they have symptoms simply because they know a positive result would cancel their Christmas plans.
Can't speak to the Netherlands (which that comment was about) but at least where I am, people aren't getting tested because ain't a goddamn test to be found in the Chicago metro area. Both of the (slightly dubious) pop-up test sites near me are closed until the new year, and the further test sites are backed up with hours-long waits for very expensive tests. Every Walgreens in a 5 mile radius is sold out of the home tests, and somehow the CVSs and grocery pharmacies around me never carried them at all.
We have two sets left that we're holding on to for just before Christmas and after that we're hosed.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 9:24 AM on December 21, 2021 [7 favorites]
Can't speak to the Netherlands (which that comment was about) but at least where I am, people aren't getting tested because ain't a goddamn test to be found in the Chicago metro area. Both of the (slightly dubious) pop-up test sites near me are closed until the new year, and the further test sites are backed up with hours-long waits for very expensive tests. Every Walgreens in a 5 mile radius is sold out of the home tests, and somehow the CVSs and grocery pharmacies around me never carried them at all.
We have two sets left that we're holding on to for just before Christmas and after that we're hosed.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 9:24 AM on December 21, 2021 [7 favorites]
We have two sets left that we're holding on to for just before Christmas and after that we're hosed.
Right there with you, both situationally and geographically, except we only have ONE set in this house. I'm very annoyed at myself for not stocking up a week ago because I thought I was being too paranoid. Instead, I wasn't being paranoid enough.
posted by notoriety public at 9:38 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
Right there with you, both situationally and geographically, except we only have ONE set in this house. I'm very annoyed at myself for not stocking up a week ago because I thought I was being too paranoid. Instead, I wasn't being paranoid enough.
posted by notoriety public at 9:38 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
I couldn't afford an at home test even if I could find one. People aren't testing.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:43 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:43 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese: Both of the (slightly dubious) pop-up test sites near me are closed until the new year, and the further test sites are backed up with hours-long waits for very expensive tests.
You... have to pay to get tested? What is this madness?
We can get tested free of charge if we have symptoms. And at this time of year, who doesn't?
tiny frying pan: I couldn't afford an at home test even if I could find one.
Wow, that sucks. I thought they were expensive here (4 euros) compared to Germany (2 euros) but that is really bad.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:12 AM on December 21, 2021
You... have to pay to get tested? What is this madness?
We can get tested free of charge if we have symptoms. And at this time of year, who doesn't?
tiny frying pan: I couldn't afford an at home test even if I could find one.
Wow, that sucks. I thought they were expensive here (4 euros) compared to Germany (2 euros) but that is really bad.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:12 AM on December 21, 2021
We can get tested free of charge if we have symptoms. And at this time of year, who doesn't?
Hahaha this is the United States, if there's a buck to be made there will be bucks made. But for what it's worth, "who doesn't" is...me. The pop-up test sites are a strange gray area where you should be able to get it for free, but then sometimes they're like oh no you must take this test, which is 300 dollars...and nobody really knows who is running them or what their DEAL is so the likelihood of gettin smacked with a random bill later exists.
Home tests, when available, are $25-50 for two tests, and you're supposed to test like...basically every day now...so...
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:16 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
Hahaha this is the United States, if there's a buck to be made there will be bucks made. But for what it's worth, "who doesn't" is...me. The pop-up test sites are a strange gray area where you should be able to get it for free, but then sometimes they're like oh no you must take this test, which is 300 dollars...and nobody really knows who is running them or what their DEAL is so the likelihood of gettin smacked with a random bill later exists.
Home tests, when available, are $25-50 for two tests, and you're supposed to test like...basically every day now...so...
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:16 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
Sometimes when the walgreens runs low they start gouging, too; my mother was charged 160 dollars for a test I bought across town for 25 because it was the last one they had.
NICE CAPITALISM YOU GOT THERE, BE A REAL SHAME IF A GUILLOTINE HAPPENED TO IT WOULDN'T IT.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:18 AM on December 21, 2021 [10 favorites]
NICE CAPITALISM YOU GOT THERE, BE A REAL SHAME IF A GUILLOTINE HAPPENED TO IT WOULDN'T IT.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:18 AM on December 21, 2021 [10 favorites]
old enough to remember michael mina advocating $1 daily at-home tests for everybody, spring 2020. (e.g.)
recently saw clever tweet imagining a world in which bezos spent an infinitesimal fraction of his fortune to throw a test kit into every package amazon shipped.
posted by 20 year lurk at 10:35 AM on December 21, 2021 [12 favorites]
recently saw clever tweet imagining a world in which bezos spent an infinitesimal fraction of his fortune to throw a test kit into every package amazon shipped.
posted by 20 year lurk at 10:35 AM on December 21, 2021 [12 favorites]
Meanwhile, in public opinion, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found "unvaccinated adults remain relatively unmoved by the recent news of the omicron variant with a large majority of unvaccinated adults (87%) saying the news about the omicron variant does not make them more likely to get vaccinated."
posted by PhineasGage at 10:45 AM on December 21, 2021
posted by PhineasGage at 10:45 AM on December 21, 2021
And meanwhilier in Omicron news, there's news of a holiday party that apparently became a superspreader event most probably due to the variant, where all the attendees were vaxxed, most boosted, and many tested.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:52 AM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
The December 11 party at Farm House Local was, ostensibly, a responsibly thrown affair, where all guests were required to be vaccinated, many were boosted, and the hosts encouraged everyone to administer at-home tests the day of the party to make sure they were COVID-negative. Windows and doors were kept open during the party to improve airflow.The good news: "So far, no one has become severely ill or required hospitalization, which points to the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing severe infection."
posted by PhineasGage at 10:52 AM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
Germany (2 euros)
In Berlin they're free to residents. Part of the evil nanny-state's desire to know all about you, and stuff. At the drug-store they're 2 - 3 bucks each (a box of five runs between 8 and 15 euro), though the price jumps when there's a run (I didn't pay 25 for the box of five. The kids get them free from the school/government and I used one of those instead.)
Family back in the US has already been infected by the latest wave - they all decided to postpone the Christmas get-together until mid January.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:10 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
In Berlin they're free to residents. Part of the evil nanny-state's desire to know all about you, and stuff. At the drug-store they're 2 - 3 bucks each (a box of five runs between 8 and 15 euro), though the price jumps when there's a run (I didn't pay 25 for the box of five. The kids get them free from the school/government and I used one of those instead.)
Family back in the US has already been infected by the latest wave - they all decided to postpone the Christmas get-together until mid January.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:10 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
That superspreader event had 60 guests. No matter the parameters, that's a huge risky party right now. 😬
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:14 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:14 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
humbly suggest that a 60-guest party is not, ostensibly or any other way, responsible, however mitigated.
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:21 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:21 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Odds are, the more people at a gathering, the more likely someone is infected.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:30 AM on December 21, 2021
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:30 AM on December 21, 2021
news of a holiday party that apparently became a superspreader event most probably due to the variant
It sounds as though part of the issue is Omicron might just replicate faster and the way we've been using rapid tests might be contributing to people thinking they're "safe" when they're not:
posted by fight or flight at 11:45 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
It sounds as though part of the issue is Omicron might just replicate faster and the way we've been using rapid tests might be contributing to people thinking they're "safe" when they're not:
Mina noted that there could be some caveats: "If Omicron is able to more efficiently replicate in bronchus (not measured in nasal swab), lyse & release from cells much more efficiently, then we may be in a situation where the amount of virus measured in the nose on any test may not correlate as well with exhaled virus."Anecdotally, I've had many friends and online acquaintances who have tested negative on multiple lateral flow tests taking over multiple days, only to get a positive PCR result. If they were just relying on those LFT results as permission to go out and party, they could have been spreading it without realising.
In addition, if Omicron replicates faster, there may be a shorter window for results to be accurate. Theoretically, it's possible that if someone tests negative at 4 p.m. but stays at a party until 11 p.m., her status could change in that time.
posted by fight or flight at 11:45 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
humbly suggest that a 60-guest party is not, ostensibly or any other way, responsible, however mitigated.
Restaurants are putting this number of people in close contact regularly with each other all with unknown vaccination status.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:55 PM on December 21, 2021 [4 favorites]
Restaurants are putting this number of people in close contact regularly with each other all with unknown vaccination status.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:55 PM on December 21, 2021 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile, in public opinion, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found "unvaccinated adults remain relatively unmoved by the recent news of the omicron variant with a large majority of unvaccinated adults (87%) saying the news about the omicron variant does not make them more likely to get vaccinated."
Well, why would it? The main concerns are that it spreads faster and evades vaccine immunity and it (may be / probably is) somewhat less severe. To someone who's unvaccinated neither of those really matter.
posted by atrazine at 1:00 PM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
Well, why would it? The main concerns are that it spreads faster and evades vaccine immunity and it (may be / probably is) somewhat less severe. To someone who's unvaccinated neither of those really matter.
posted by atrazine at 1:00 PM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
Curiously enough, in the USA, the need for FDA approval of the rapid covid tests has acted as a barrier to entry for smaller firms. This government requirement has suppressed the market competition that would otherwise emerge. As such, the price floor per test seems to be about $10. So much for the "land of the free."
In contrast, in Europe, the standards for consumer-use tests are much more lenient (and one might say "appropriate"). As such, there is a high level of competition among many more rapid covid test manufacturers that brings the prices down much lower than in the US.
See, e.g. Here's why rapid COVID tests are so expensive and hard to find.
posted by theorique at 1:23 PM on December 21, 2021
In contrast, in Europe, the standards for consumer-use tests are much more lenient (and one might say "appropriate"). As such, there is a high level of competition among many more rapid covid test manufacturers that brings the prices down much lower than in the US.
See, e.g. Here's why rapid COVID tests are so expensive and hard to find.
posted by theorique at 1:23 PM on December 21, 2021
Yes, unfortunately, all the talk about how Omicron is "milder" is probably not encouraging anyone to get vaccinated. The reality is we don't know if Omicron is actually milder or if it is just infecting a lot of people who are vaccinated or were previously infected (or our preliminary data is wrong). I think the data so far likely doesn't indicate that Omicron is significantly milder for people who aren't vaccinated, but that probably isn't what people who aren't vaccinated are hearing. Though I'd imagine that a pretty large proportion of those people have already been infected, so it may well be milder for them too.
posted by ssg at 1:24 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by ssg at 1:24 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Not sure what the point of getting a rapid test is if you're going to be infectious literally at any second, a few hours from now, whenever. We should all just assume we're constantly infected and infectious now, I guess?
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:13 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:13 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
We should all just assume we're constantly infected and infectious now, I guess?
Pretty much.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:16 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
Pretty much.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:16 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
In Berlin they're free to residents. Part of the evil nanny-state's desire to know all about you, and stuff.
Nonresidents too; you just show some ID and give the address where you're staying and a phone number and they give you a test, watch you do it and then text you the result 15 minutes later. And testing centres are everywhere (when I was staying there last month, I used one in what is normally a gym or yoga studio of some sort).
posted by acb at 3:23 PM on December 21, 2021
Nonresidents too; you just show some ID and give the address where you're staying and a phone number and they give you a test, watch you do it and then text you the result 15 minutes later. And testing centres are everywhere (when I was staying there last month, I used one in what is normally a gym or yoga studio of some sort).
posted by acb at 3:23 PM on December 21, 2021
Tests seem to have dried up in Europe (or at least in Sweden) recently as well.
The tests here appear to all be ones made and marketed by Chinese companies (the brand names I picked up in a local pharmacy were Boson and Flowflex), which I'm guessing is not the case in the US?
posted by acb at 3:27 PM on December 21, 2021
The tests here appear to all be ones made and marketed by Chinese companies (the brand names I picked up in a local pharmacy were Boson and Flowflex), which I'm guessing is not the case in the US?
posted by acb at 3:27 PM on December 21, 2021
We should all just assume we're constantly infected and infectious now, I guess?
I mean.. yes? That's what masks, social distancing, ventilation and being extra careful around the vulnerable is for anyway. All of those things have always been because we're supposed to be assuming that we need to take precautions because we might have it but not know about it. There's no need to change what you're doing if you're already taking sensible precautions.
posted by fight or flight at 3:53 PM on December 21, 2021 [7 favorites]
I mean.. yes? That's what masks, social distancing, ventilation and being extra careful around the vulnerable is for anyway. All of those things have always been because we're supposed to be assuming that we need to take precautions because we might have it but not know about it. There's no need to change what you're doing if you're already taking sensible precautions.
posted by fight or flight at 3:53 PM on December 21, 2021 [7 favorites]
From ProPublica: "This Scientist Created a Rapid Test Just Weeks Into the Pandemic. Here’s Why You Still Can’t Get It."
posted by PhineasGage at 4:32 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:32 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Lack of tests sucks. Here in Seattle, (Ballard), there are no home tests to be had. Thought we had enough for the kids coming home for the holidays. Then, a son's teammates brother tested positive, and I drove the teammate last Thursday, and my wife interacted with them briefly on Saturday, and now, we are running out. I'm hitting everywhere, everyday... Haven't been any for three days. We are down to 6...
So, not going to hang with my soccer team mates at our sponsor bar/restaurant tonight. Looks like it's time to lockdown again. And I'm slated in to go to Salt Lake in early January for my son's sporting event. Ugh.
GET VAXXED PEOPLE, FFS!
(EDIT: I know they won't, sigh)
posted by Windopaene at 4:43 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
So, not going to hang with my soccer team mates at our sponsor bar/restaurant tonight. Looks like it's time to lockdown again. And I'm slated in to go to Salt Lake in early January for my son's sporting event. Ugh.
GET VAXXED PEOPLE, FFS!
(EDIT: I know they won't, sigh)
posted by Windopaene at 4:43 PM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
For everyone in the US struggling to find at-home tests: Walmart seems to be releasing the BinaxNOW test in small quantities multiple times a day for online purchase. I assume to keep people from buying up all the tests for purposes of reselling. Just keep refreshing the product page. I have successfully ordered tests for myself and a friend this way. My tests showed up today, hers are scheduled for arrival tomorrow.
posted by tllaya at 6:15 PM on December 21, 2021
posted by tllaya at 6:15 PM on December 21, 2021
The holidays are going to mess up the official reporting numbers, so there probably won't be meaningful daily updates. The numbers will get bundled together.
As for what is the use of testing, one main use is to know whether you have a cold (or flu) or COVID for informing contacts.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:39 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
As for what is the use of testing, one main use is to know whether you have a cold (or flu) or COVID for informing contacts.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:39 PM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
Bunch of people on Twitter saying they got home from WorldCon 2021 and tested positive.
posted by octothorpe at 7:11 PM on December 21, 2021
posted by octothorpe at 7:11 PM on December 21, 2021
Biden administration to make 500 million at-home Covid tests available for free
WASHINGTON — The federal government next month will start mailing at-home Covid test kits for free to any U.S. household that requests one, a senior administration official said, as the omicron variant of the coronavirus contributes to a spike in new cases.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 7:42 PM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
WASHINGTON — The federal government next month will start mailing at-home Covid test kits for free to any U.S. household that requests one, a senior administration official said, as the omicron variant of the coronavirus contributes to a spike in new cases.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 7:42 PM on December 21, 2021 [2 favorites]
That will actually be helpful. Most people want to be responsible even if they aren't as loud as the "send it" contingent.
In other news, the state run monoclonal antibody clinics in Miami-Dade county have shut down because they've run out. Not that it likely matters in practice since the monoclonal antibodies that they had aren't very useful against Omicron, it's a strong infusion that things are going downhill very rapidly. It'll be interesting to see if that has an effect on hospital admissions which have thus far remained relatively low.
I'm commenting a lot about the Florida situation because people just won't quit traveling here and also because we're one of the few places in the US where the Omicron wave is distinct from an already ongoing Delta wave, so it is informative as to what Omicron will do elsewhere. There were only 10 people in the hospital with COVID in Miami-Dade's largest hospital system at the beginning of the month. A couple of days ago it was up to 90, but none in the ICU. Where it ends up over the next week will be extremely informative.
posted by wierdo at 8:07 PM on December 21, 2021 [6 favorites]
In other news, the state run monoclonal antibody clinics in Miami-Dade county have shut down because they've run out. Not that it likely matters in practice since the monoclonal antibodies that they had aren't very useful against Omicron, it's a strong infusion that things are going downhill very rapidly. It'll be interesting to see if that has an effect on hospital admissions which have thus far remained relatively low.
I'm commenting a lot about the Florida situation because people just won't quit traveling here and also because we're one of the few places in the US where the Omicron wave is distinct from an already ongoing Delta wave, so it is informative as to what Omicron will do elsewhere. There were only 10 people in the hospital with COVID in Miami-Dade's largest hospital system at the beginning of the month. A couple of days ago it was up to 90, but none in the ICU. Where it ends up over the next week will be extremely informative.
posted by wierdo at 8:07 PM on December 21, 2021 [6 favorites]
Testing is great but just to temper expectations of effect: the UK has had abundant free tests available for months, people do use them. I'm sure they help and the counterfactual would be worse but they don't solve all your problems.
posted by atrazine at 3:47 AM on December 22, 2021
posted by atrazine at 3:47 AM on December 22, 2021
Another place to keep an eye on is Puerto Rico, which is seeing a staggering surge currently, with a number of areas reporting a greater than 2,000 percent increase over the past two weeks (really the past week) and almost 1,000% overall. Historically they were one of the best places Dealing with Covid in the United States this year, with an excellently run campaign against Covid-19 and very high vaccination numbers.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:33 AM on December 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by rambling wanderlust at 4:33 AM on December 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
Why the Pandemic Won’t End
We’re Trapped in a Covid Doom Loop — And the Clock’s Ticking
Ah, the halcyon days of…ten days ago. It was just a week or two ago — literally — that American media was peppered with hot takes from pundits about the pandemic coming to an end.
Gordon Brown (WHO ambassador for global health financing, and was UK prime minister from 2007 to 2010)
If rich countries are willing to act decisively, I have a strategy that will allow us to work together and vaccinate the world.
posted by adamvasco at 6:27 AM on December 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
We’re Trapped in a Covid Doom Loop — And the Clock’s Ticking
Ah, the halcyon days of…ten days ago. It was just a week or two ago — literally — that American media was peppered with hot takes from pundits about the pandemic coming to an end.
Gordon Brown (WHO ambassador for global health financing, and was UK prime minister from 2007 to 2010)
If rich countries are willing to act decisively, I have a strategy that will allow us to work together and vaccinate the world.
posted by adamvasco at 6:27 AM on December 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
If places like Puerto Rico are seeing a big surge of covid cases even with very high vaccination numbers (very similar to what we have already seen in other locations like Israel or Gibraltar), how is vaccinating and boosting the world supposed stop the pandemic?
Perhaps more widespread vaccination will reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths since the vaccine appears to show efficacy against case severity, but it won't likely stop the ongoing transmission of SARS-Cov-2.
posted by theorique at 6:40 AM on December 22, 2021
Perhaps more widespread vaccination will reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths since the vaccine appears to show efficacy against case severity, but it won't likely stop the ongoing transmission of SARS-Cov-2.
posted by theorique at 6:40 AM on December 22, 2021
Biden administration to make 500 million at-home Covid tests available for free
This is great and timely. It's also worth mentioning that it comes after this ridiculous incident, where Jen Psaki (the press secretary), in response to a comment about how Biden's plan for people to submit reimbursement claims for the at-home tests they would first need to pay out of pocket for was pretty cumbersome, asked "Should we just send one out to every American?" as though it were a sarcastic joke. That was rightly met with comments about how other countries have successfully been doing exactly that. Which I think goes to show how important it is for everyone to be aware of what's going on all around the world in terms of pandemic response. Things that might seem unrealistic or unimaginable are often both possible and worthwhile, and knowing that something's been achieved successfully elsewhere makes it easier to advocate for at home.
I hope the program is done well and expanded, because 500 million for a population of 330 million is... not actually much. (Also: do masks next.)
(I was also struck in that press interview by Psaki's follow-up comments about how sending tests out would clearly be too expensive to consider. Surely the expense of prophylactic measures has to be weighed against the costs of the increased hospitalizations, increased disability, and increased economic damage you're likely to see without those measures. I know press secretaries aren't policy makers, but I hope the actual policy makers in the administration don't share the ignorance and short-term thinking on display in that press conference. Because that was dismaying.)
posted by trig at 6:53 AM on December 22, 2021 [11 favorites]
This is great and timely. It's also worth mentioning that it comes after this ridiculous incident, where Jen Psaki (the press secretary), in response to a comment about how Biden's plan for people to submit reimbursement claims for the at-home tests they would first need to pay out of pocket for was pretty cumbersome, asked "Should we just send one out to every American?" as though it were a sarcastic joke. That was rightly met with comments about how other countries have successfully been doing exactly that. Which I think goes to show how important it is for everyone to be aware of what's going on all around the world in terms of pandemic response. Things that might seem unrealistic or unimaginable are often both possible and worthwhile, and knowing that something's been achieved successfully elsewhere makes it easier to advocate for at home.
I hope the program is done well and expanded, because 500 million for a population of 330 million is... not actually much. (Also: do masks next.)
(I was also struck in that press interview by Psaki's follow-up comments about how sending tests out would clearly be too expensive to consider. Surely the expense of prophylactic measures has to be weighed against the costs of the increased hospitalizations, increased disability, and increased economic damage you're likely to see without those measures. I know press secretaries aren't policy makers, but I hope the actual policy makers in the administration don't share the ignorance and short-term thinking on display in that press conference. Because that was dismaying.)
posted by trig at 6:53 AM on December 22, 2021 [11 favorites]
how is vaccinating and boosting the world supposed stop the pandemic?
If vaccination greatly reduces the death toll, it makes herd immunity possible for the new variant. If this one is really as bad as it's looking, it's going to be very hard to avoid infection, (so many people i know who avoided it the last two years are getting breakthroughs that I'm assuming I'm going to get it at some point). If we vaccinate the world then the virus can transition to endemic much faster, and herd immunity will help control the rate of mutations etc. Vaccination is the only way out of a pandemic unless your strategy is to just let millions die
posted by dis_integration at 7:12 AM on December 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
If vaccination greatly reduces the death toll, it makes herd immunity possible for the new variant. If this one is really as bad as it's looking, it's going to be very hard to avoid infection, (so many people i know who avoided it the last two years are getting breakthroughs that I'm assuming I'm going to get it at some point). If we vaccinate the world then the virus can transition to endemic much faster, and herd immunity will help control the rate of mutations etc. Vaccination is the only way out of a pandemic unless your strategy is to just let millions die
posted by dis_integration at 7:12 AM on December 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
It's also worth mentioning that it comes after this ridiculous incident, where Jen Psaki (the press secretary), in response to a comment about how Biden's plan for people to submit reimbursement claims for the at-home tests they would first need to pay out of pocket for was pretty cumbersome, asked "Should we just send one out to every American?" as though it were a sarcastic joke.
This Twitter thread sums up how even the updated "plan" of the administration is still relatively pathetic (edited from tweet format):
This Twitter thread sums up how even the updated "plan" of the administration is still relatively pathetic (edited from tweet format):
500 million covid tests, less than 2 per person, available upon online request, a month from now, is an insultingly half-assed and inevitably ineffective response. Just like one-time means-tested checks equalling one month at federal minimum wage were. It's an insulting gesture, the minimum possible effort followed by a "now go fuck yourselves."posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:28 AM on December 22, 2021 [12 favorites]
Even more pathetic than the half-assed measure itself, are the people defending it who cannot possibly imagine what a non-insulting measure would even look like. They got used to the taste of shit, basically. Just chanting "better things are not possible" while waiting for their one-time means-tested shit sandwiches to arrive.
Imagine how few disabled people, or Black people, or poor people, etc you'd have to know to think that this is anywhere close to a sufficient measure. How many shit sandwiches do you have to eat, for how long, for you to not even remember what other things taste like. These vaxxed and boosted centrists, praising a shit sandwich, angrily asking why others aren't gobbling it up. Fuck em. The problem isn't the unvaxxed magats, they're the tip of the iceberg. Each magat depends on a hundred centrists who sincerely have no fucking clue what it's like to have minimal expectations higher than "at least this shit sandwich is solid today"
If this one is really as bad as it's looking, it's going to be very hard to avoid infection, (so many people i know who avoided it the last two years are getting breakthroughs that I'm assuming I'm going to get it at some point). If we vaccinate the world then the virus can transition to endemic much faster, and herd immunity will help control the rate of mutations etc.
That makes perfect sense. Thanks for the clarification.
It's probably safe to say that the route through the pandemic to "endemicity" (if that's a word) and herd immunity is going to be the same in either case - i.e. a whole lot of people are going to get infections one way or another. However, a higher level of vaccine-provided immunity has the potential to make that a much smoother ride with fewer severe cases and fewer deaths.
posted by theorique at 7:33 AM on December 22, 2021
That makes perfect sense. Thanks for the clarification.
It's probably safe to say that the route through the pandemic to "endemicity" (if that's a word) and herd immunity is going to be the same in either case - i.e. a whole lot of people are going to get infections one way or another. However, a higher level of vaccine-provided immunity has the potential to make that a much smoother ride with fewer severe cases and fewer deaths.
posted by theorique at 7:33 AM on December 22, 2021
If places like Puerto Rico are seeing a big surge of covid cases even with very high vaccination numbers (very similar to what we have already seen in other locations like Israel or Gibraltar), how is vaccinating and boosting the world supposed stop the pandemic?
First, just to clear something up I've been seeing a lot: Israel is actually lagging behind the US now in terms of people who've had at least one shot: the US is at 72.6% while Israel is just short of 70%. This seems important to note because, due to the speed with which it first started vaccinating, Israel keeps getting held up as a model of a highly-vaccinated country, when that's really not accurate - though it is true that of all Israelis who have received the initial dose, a higher percentage than in many other countries has gone on to get boosted. Gibraltar is hard to assess (at least based on the linked data) because apparently its numbers include a lot of non-residents. Puerto Rico seems to be in the mid-70s for percentage of fully vaccinated residents - higher than any other place in the US, but not actually high.
Because while early in the pandemic scientists were estimating that around a 70% vaccination rate might be enough for herd immunity, they had already revised those estimates to 80% and then 90% by the time the vaccines actually became available. (Maybe even higher percentages are needed, but I haven't seen that being said yet.) There are very few countries that meet those levels. One exception is Portugal, and it'll be important to track what happens there compared to countries with lower vaccination rates. Recent months have also showed that total vaccination rates aren't the only important measure: it also matters how recent the vaccination was, how many doses have been received and when, and which vaccine(s) were used.
The reasons to keep pushing for vaccination and boosting worldwide are:
a) vaccination reduces the risk of serious illness and death. Fewer people dying is very important. Not overloading hospitals and medical resources is also extremely important.
b) mRNA boosters have been shown to reduce the likelihood of infection, even with omicron. Fewer people infected means fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate into new variants.
c) on a general level, one of the things people pushing for worldwide access to vaccines have been calling for is both increased production capacity and increased decentralization of vaccine production: vaccines should be produced in every part of the world; Africa, for example, shouldn't have to wait for Europe and the US to spare some surplus. Beyond that, building up the infrastructure needed to transport and store the vaccines, the medical training to administer it en masse, and the cultural willingness and awareness to get vaccinated promptly would make it possible to respond much, much faster to new variants. Which in the end would translate to fewer serious cases, fewer deaths, and maybe even an end to this pandemic. Right now it's taking months and even longer for the entire world to respond to any new development.
posted by trig at 7:33 AM on December 22, 2021 [8 favorites]
First, just to clear something up I've been seeing a lot: Israel is actually lagging behind the US now in terms of people who've had at least one shot: the US is at 72.6% while Israel is just short of 70%. This seems important to note because, due to the speed with which it first started vaccinating, Israel keeps getting held up as a model of a highly-vaccinated country, when that's really not accurate - though it is true that of all Israelis who have received the initial dose, a higher percentage than in many other countries has gone on to get boosted. Gibraltar is hard to assess (at least based on the linked data) because apparently its numbers include a lot of non-residents. Puerto Rico seems to be in the mid-70s for percentage of fully vaccinated residents - higher than any other place in the US, but not actually high.
Because while early in the pandemic scientists were estimating that around a 70% vaccination rate might be enough for herd immunity, they had already revised those estimates to 80% and then 90% by the time the vaccines actually became available. (Maybe even higher percentages are needed, but I haven't seen that being said yet.) There are very few countries that meet those levels. One exception is Portugal, and it'll be important to track what happens there compared to countries with lower vaccination rates. Recent months have also showed that total vaccination rates aren't the only important measure: it also matters how recent the vaccination was, how many doses have been received and when, and which vaccine(s) were used.
The reasons to keep pushing for vaccination and boosting worldwide are:
a) vaccination reduces the risk of serious illness and death. Fewer people dying is very important. Not overloading hospitals and medical resources is also extremely important.
b) mRNA boosters have been shown to reduce the likelihood of infection, even with omicron. Fewer people infected means fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate into new variants.
c) on a general level, one of the things people pushing for worldwide access to vaccines have been calling for is both increased production capacity and increased decentralization of vaccine production: vaccines should be produced in every part of the world; Africa, for example, shouldn't have to wait for Europe and the US to spare some surplus. Beyond that, building up the infrastructure needed to transport and store the vaccines, the medical training to administer it en masse, and the cultural willingness and awareness to get vaccinated promptly would make it possible to respond much, much faster to new variants. Which in the end would translate to fewer serious cases, fewer deaths, and maybe even an end to this pandemic. Right now it's taking months and even longer for the entire world to respond to any new development.
posted by trig at 7:33 AM on December 22, 2021 [8 favorites]
The F.D.A. clears Pfizer’s Covid pills for high-risk patients 12 and older
The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday authorized the first pill for Covid-19, offering a highly effective defense against severe illness that will arrive as the country endures another major surge of the pandemic.posted by gwint at 9:38 AM on December 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
The drug, developed by Pfizer and known as Paxlovid, is authorized for Covid patients age 12 and over who are vulnerable to becoming severely ill because they are older or have medical conditions such as obesity or diabetes. Tens of millions of Americans — including both vaccinated and unvaccinated people — will be eligible if they get infected with the virus. The treatment could be available within a few days.
Pfizer’s laboratory studies indicate that its pills are likely to work against the Omicron variant, which has rapidly become the dominant form of new cases in the United States.
The treatment is meant to be taken as 30 pills over five days. Patients take three pills at a time: two of Pfizer’s pills and one of a low-dose H.I.V. drug known as ritonavir, which helps Pfizer’s drug remain active in the body longer.
A clinical trial indicated that Paxlovid was highly effective when taken soon after an infection. In a final analysis of a key study conducted while the Delta variant was surging, Pfizer’s drug reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 88 percent when given to high-risk unvaccinated volunteers within five days of the start of their symptoms.
Regarding long Covid prevalence, the latest estimate from the UK from October has:
posted by ssg at 12:00 PM on December 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
- 1.2m people living with long Covid
- 36% of those for a year or more
- 64% reporting that it adversely affected their day-to-day activities
- 19% reporting their day-to-day activities are limited a lot
posted by ssg at 12:00 PM on December 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
Evidence Omicron less severe than Delta, say UK researchers
The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 15%-20% reduced chance of a hospital visit and at least a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight, the first UK data of its kind has showed.
Still more transmissible though.
posted by biffa at 1:13 PM on December 22, 2021
The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 15%-20% reduced chance of a hospital visit and at least a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight, the first UK data of its kind has showed.
Still more transmissible though.
posted by biffa at 1:13 PM on December 22, 2021
Dr. Bob Wachter, head of the Department of Medicine at UCSF, has a good thread summarizing where things stand with omicron.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:07 PM on December 22, 2021 [11 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:07 PM on December 22, 2021 [11 favorites]
It's gonna be real hard to know how deadly Omicron is given the underreporting of COVID-19 deaths more generally. One particularly dim bulb coroner in Missouri hasn't attributed a single death in his county to COVID in 2022.
posted by wierdo at 12:33 PM on December 23, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 12:33 PM on December 23, 2021 [3 favorites]
Hospitalization data isn't looking good. The county I'm in now was down to 140 admitted COVID patients on the 16th. It has since more than doubled to 319. Still no immediate crisis, but give it a couple more weeks and it's gonna be a disaster if trends continue. This in a county that is 80% vaccinated.
I'm comfortable now saying that Omicron isn't sufficiently less severe as to make it any less worrisome in terms of impact on the overall health care system. The entire state of Florida's allocation of Paxlovid for the month looks to be around 2,500 courses and we're about out of the only useful monoclonal, so we aren't going to be saved by improved treatment. On the bright side, there should be enough to help with the inevitable second Omicron wave that will be coming in the spring, so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Given past history, I'm expecting yet another tunnel.
posted by wierdo at 1:49 PM on December 23, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'm comfortable now saying that Omicron isn't sufficiently less severe as to make it any less worrisome in terms of impact on the overall health care system. The entire state of Florida's allocation of Paxlovid for the month looks to be around 2,500 courses and we're about out of the only useful monoclonal, so we aren't going to be saved by improved treatment. On the bright side, there should be enough to help with the inevitable second Omicron wave that will be coming in the spring, so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Given past history, I'm expecting yet another tunnel.
posted by wierdo at 1:49 PM on December 23, 2021 [2 favorites]
The latest batch of test results in Florida dropped and we're up to around 32,000 daily, even with the extremely long lines at testing sites. That's approaching the highest seen so far in the entire pandemic. We were well under 10,000 a day before Omicron. (I forget the exact number)
If you're eligible for a booster and haven't yet gotten it, please do (probably preaching to the choir here, but it's still worth saying). I've heard of lots of boosted people still getting sick, but hardly any of those that are having any worse symptoms than a mild cold. Enough to be annoying, but not enough to cause any real danger. This thing is going from zero to hero in record time, but if you live somewhere that is earlier in the curve, you've still got a chance to get some protection before things get nuts like they are here.
posted by wierdo at 8:02 PM on December 23, 2021 [5 favorites]
If you're eligible for a booster and haven't yet gotten it, please do (probably preaching to the choir here, but it's still worth saying). I've heard of lots of boosted people still getting sick, but hardly any of those that are having any worse symptoms than a mild cold. Enough to be annoying, but not enough to cause any real danger. This thing is going from zero to hero in record time, but if you live somewhere that is earlier in the curve, you've still got a chance to get some protection before things get nuts like they are here.
posted by wierdo at 8:02 PM on December 23, 2021 [5 favorites]
It appears to be true that Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalization, but it's clear now that it's not sufficient to overcome the increased transmissibility. In my county hospitalizations have been growing 10-15% each day this week and have nearly tripled since my last comment in this thread. We're pushing 90% of available beds used. Ventilator use has also tripled, but remains low in absolute terms.
The state hit yet another high of over 72,000 new cases yesterday, so even with the lower ratio of cases to hospitalizations and very optimistically assuming staffing levels don't drop because HCWs are getting sick, there is little chance we don't run out of beds in the next 1-2 weeks.
posted by wierdo at 6:08 AM on December 31, 2021 [3 favorites]
The state hit yet another high of over 72,000 new cases yesterday, so even with the lower ratio of cases to hospitalizations and very optimistically assuming staffing levels don't drop because HCWs are getting sick, there is little chance we don't run out of beds in the next 1-2 weeks.
posted by wierdo at 6:08 AM on December 31, 2021 [3 favorites]
Florida hit 84,000 new cases today, the positivity rate in Miami-Dade is getting dangerously close to 30%, and hospitalizations in Broward County are still increasing about 13% daily. There's still a disconnect in hospitalization relative to previous waves, but it's simply not enough.
Also, the number of COVID patients on ventilators has increased about 5x in the past week(ish), so you can confidently tell anyone we need not worry about Omicron to go fuck themselves since vents aren't that far behind the increase in cases proportionally. (Adjusted a couple of weeks it's an 8x increase in cases to the 5x increase in ventilator usage) I'd love to know how many of those patients on ventilators are vaccinated, but it doesn't really matter to the folks who end up needing one for non-COVID reasons.
The continued minimization of the problem is driving me batty. If we had good mask compliance, it would still be possible to manage the situation, but it seems like that's just not going to happen. T'would be delightful if the feds would send everyone a few masks and a few home tests like right fucking now so that not everyone will be as fucked as Florida is about to be.
posted by wierdo at 1:23 PM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
Also, the number of COVID patients on ventilators has increased about 5x in the past week(ish), so you can confidently tell anyone we need not worry about Omicron to go fuck themselves since vents aren't that far behind the increase in cases proportionally. (Adjusted a couple of weeks it's an 8x increase in cases to the 5x increase in ventilator usage) I'd love to know how many of those patients on ventilators are vaccinated, but it doesn't really matter to the folks who end up needing one for non-COVID reasons.
The continued minimization of the problem is driving me batty. If we had good mask compliance, it would still be possible to manage the situation, but it seems like that's just not going to happen. T'would be delightful if the feds would send everyone a few masks and a few home tests like right fucking now so that not everyone will be as fucked as Florida is about to be.
posted by wierdo at 1:23 PM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
Positivity in NSW as of this morning is at 27%, Victoria 23%. Record case counts in both, record hospitalizations in NSW. Source: covidlive.com.au
posted by flabdablet at 4:00 PM on January 3, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 4:00 PM on January 3, 2022
With more than 150,000 deaths in UK
End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce.
Further he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.”
The only good thing here is that he is the ex-head.
posted by adamvasco at 5:26 PM on January 8, 2022
End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce.
Further he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.”
The only good thing here is that he is the ex-head.
posted by adamvasco at 5:26 PM on January 8, 2022
Could someone tell that crazy person that we vaccinate every year against flu, too?
posted by PhineasGage at 5:38 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 5:38 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
And that the flu doesn't typically fill up hospitals and clog up the entire healthcare system and burn out healthcare workers everywhere. And that the flu is estimated to kill around 25,000 people annually in just England and Wales (covid has taken 150,000 people in the past two years in the UK, but let's ignore the difference in severity). And that vaccines do exactly what he says needs to be done ("We now need to manage disease, not virus spread. So stopping progression to severe disease in vulnerable groups is the future objective"). And that a government ready to let people get sick must logically and morally also be ready to take responsibility for supporting the welfare of people whose lives have been adversely affected by that sickness, like all those suddenly single-parent households, and all those long covid sufferers whose numbers aren't being tracked because ...
posted by trig at 4:42 AM on January 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by trig at 4:42 AM on January 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
The NYT front page article today is sobering:
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:04 AM on January 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
In New York City, Boston and Chicago — cities with some of the country’s earliest Omicron surges — deaths have followed cases at a slightly reduced scale than in previous peaks. But because of the extraordinarily high case count, even a proportionally lower death toll from the current case curve in the United States could be devastating.We're flattening the curve alright, just along the wrong axis.
In early-hit cities, hospitals are seeing more patients testing positive for Covid-19 than at any time last year. Because of the sheer infectiousness of the Omicron variant, many who arrive at the hospital for other ailments test positive for the coronavirus. Some doctors have also said that patients who do have Covid as a primary diagnosis are faring better than during previous waves.
Even so, the number of Covid-19 patients who need intensive care or mechanical ventilation is approaching levels not seen since last winter. And the sheer number of patients is overwhelming to hospitals, where staffing shortages are putting healthcare workers under immense strain.
Healthcare workers were already quitting their jobs in record numbers before the Omicron wave. Now, many more are out sick with the hugely transmissible variant. With fewer staff members available to care for them, even a smaller number of patients can overwhelm emergency departments and intensive care units.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:04 AM on January 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
With more than 150,000 deaths in UK
End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce.
Further he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.”
The only good thing here is that he is the ex-head.
What he's saying, that after giving everyone their third shot, there is no evidence of any benefit to giving fourth doses to everyone and that research should be focused on next generation vaccines which should be targeted at the vulnerable the way the flu vaccine is doesn't sound particularly controversial.
posted by atrazine at 4:30 AM on January 10, 2022
End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce.
Further he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.”
The only good thing here is that he is the ex-head.
What he's saying, that after giving everyone their third shot, there is no evidence of any benefit to giving fourth doses to everyone and that research should be focused on next generation vaccines which should be targeted at the vulnerable the way the flu vaccine is doesn't sound particularly controversial.
posted by atrazine at 4:30 AM on January 10, 2022
« Older If The Fates Allow | Then I went back up the stairs — well, I fell back... Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
It is so much more contagious than anything we've seen before, really.
posted by hippybear at 8:35 PM on December 17, 2021 [9 favorites]