More on the economics of the US Supply Chain and a possible improvement
December 20, 2021 11:13 AM Subscribe
Clogging up the ports is a $150 billion business, but a bipartisan bill to re-regulate the sector is moving through Congress. Why is Congress about to do the right thing? From BIG, Matt Stoller's newsletter about the politics of monopoly. Discusses the "trucker shortage" and the economics behind container shipping.
Super interesting and informative article - thanks for posting!
posted by Gerald Bostock at 11:50 AM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Gerald Bostock at 11:50 AM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]
I love that the tone of this article is "wow, this is amazing! This is the way the system is supposed to work! How strange that it almost never happens. I wonder what could have changed?" And he answers his own question about halfway through: ONE REPUBLICAN SENATOR broke ranks and agreed not to be a flaming pile of retrograde douchebaggery. That Senator just happens to hail from the great state of South Dakota, which is not only the state with the greatest amount of (disproportionate) influence per capita in the Senate, but is also one of the most beholden to the shipping industry to prevent its own economy from collapsing.
As ever with bipartisanship, you just have to follow the money until you find the Republican whose naked self-interest momentarily outweighs his commitment to obstructionism.
posted by Mayor West at 1:05 PM on December 20, 2021 [55 favorites]
As ever with bipartisanship, you just have to follow the money until you find the Republican whose naked self-interest momentarily outweighs his commitment to obstructionism.
posted by Mayor West at 1:05 PM on December 20, 2021 [55 favorites]
It would be neat if the article mentioned how things were in ports in different countries. Is it the same problem everywhere? Different problems elsewhere? Less problems elsewhere?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 1:12 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 1:12 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
This is what I find so lacking in legacy news systems (I hate to say MSM because of the baggage that abbreviation has)--actual analysis to explain what's going on. I'm sure the author sees things through a particular set of biases (who doesn't?), but he's clearly being factual.
The bizarre definition of 'objectivity' used by big reporting organizations removes any requirement for--in fact, actually discourages--thought in the reporting process.
This was a great read, and I learned more from it that I have from the last week of my news comsumption.
posted by Ickster at 2:04 PM on December 20, 2021 [13 favorites]
The bizarre definition of 'objectivity' used by big reporting organizations removes any requirement for--in fact, actually discourages--thought in the reporting process.
This was a great read, and I learned more from it that I have from the last week of my news comsumption.
posted by Ickster at 2:04 PM on December 20, 2021 [13 favorites]
This is what I find so lacking in legacy news systems (I hate to say MSM because of the baggage that abbreviation has)--actual analysis to explain what's going on.
I've found Blooberg's Odd Lots podcast approach of "2 hosts interview an expert for 30 minutes" to be more informative than the APM: Marketplace's "8 surface level segments of 4 minutes each" approach. They've been following the shipping problem for while, going as far back as the problem finding containers in China over a year ago. And it just so happens they have an episode today: Gene Seroka on What’s Happening Now at the Port of LA.
posted by pwnguin at 2:44 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
I've found Blooberg's Odd Lots podcast approach of "2 hosts interview an expert for 30 minutes" to be more informative than the APM: Marketplace's "8 surface level segments of 4 minutes each" approach. They've been following the shipping problem for while, going as far back as the problem finding containers in China over a year ago. And it just so happens they have an episode today: Gene Seroka on What’s Happening Now at the Port of LA.
posted by pwnguin at 2:44 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
As ever with bipartisanship, you just have to follow the money until you find the Republican whose naked self-interest momentarily outweighs his commitment to obstructionism.
152 Republicans voted for this bill in the House. That's over 70% support. The Republican co-sponsor in the Senate isn't "breaking ranks," he's going along with the majority of his party.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 2:56 PM on December 20, 2021 [12 favorites]
152 Republicans voted for this bill in the House. That's over 70% support. The Republican co-sponsor in the Senate isn't "breaking ranks," he's going along with the majority of his party.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 2:56 PM on December 20, 2021 [12 favorites]
One thing they might want to consider is if the automated driver logs and monitoring systems have so made the truck driving job extremely unattractive by stripping away a lot the drivers sense of autonomy and mastery of their job.
posted by interogative mood at 3:11 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:11 PM on December 20, 2021 [4 favorites]
As TFA notes, there isn't really a driver shortage so much as an excess of bullshit at shipping and receiving facilities of all kinds that waste vast amounts of time because drivers get paid per mile or per load, not for the hours they may wait for an open dock or for their truck to get loaded or unloaded. In many areas the rates are also stupidly low. It's possible to make good money being an owner-operator, but it requires putting up with a mountain of shit and most people would rather get paid a predictable wage than spend all the time and energy it takes to avoid getting screwed. Maybe electronic log books make a difference at the margins, but it's only an issue because the system is so broken to begin with.
There are some truckers on YouTube whose videos provide a great illustration of the shit they have to deal with. Just be prepared to pop an artery or two if they let their politics get into it. (The ones I've seen don't bring it up, but it's pretty obvious from context what they'd say if they did)
posted by wierdo at 4:30 PM on December 20, 2021 [11 favorites]
There are some truckers on YouTube whose videos provide a great illustration of the shit they have to deal with. Just be prepared to pop an artery or two if they let their politics get into it. (The ones I've seen don't bring it up, but it's pretty obvious from context what they'd say if they did)
posted by wierdo at 4:30 PM on December 20, 2021 [11 favorites]
I have a friend who runs a truck driver training program at an area school. She said there’s no truck driver shortage. But there’s definitely a driver retention problem. Working conditions are terrible and drivers just decide after a while, “nope, I’m done.”
posted by azpenguin at 6:55 PM on December 20, 2021 [13 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 6:55 PM on December 20, 2021 [13 favorites]
That was an interesting article, thank you for posting.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:31 PM on December 20, 2021
posted by Dip Flash at 7:31 PM on December 20, 2021
#1: I think there is a driver shortage. Maybe it is localized. First the signs along the interstate advertising $20-40k signing bonuses ($60k if you have your own truck) are extremely common. Maybe those are advertising exaggerations, but people don't advertise if there is no need.
You can also tell the driver shortage is growing by noticing that a real percentage of truck drivers are Indian immigrants, which means the job is filtering downwards. I think we've had some posts about the growth in Indian immigrant truckers before.
#2: The article implies that the stocking fees are the reason for some of the delay. I'm not sure I agree, with the anecdote that the marginal cost of shipping must be being driven downwards, so the truckers and freight handlers are grasping at any revenue source they can find. You can see this in cities that have been starved of revenue sources using fines and forfeitures of the police force as a revenue generating model. So if the bill being considered by Congress doesn't allow new revenue sources then shipping isn't going to get better. The revenue lost in fees has to be made up somewhere.
#3: Yes there is some backups at the ports - but consumer sales are also up over 10% over 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. There are 3 possible reasons for this: 1) inflation concerns are pushing purchases forward 2) the Gov't giving people cash is having a real effect on the economy 3) retail is taking sales from experiences, like hotel & travel. In any case, up 10% in one year is HUGE - most years it grows at around 2%. So this tells us more goods are being shipped, and so complaints about JIT or warehousing in trailers may be true of some very specific products, but is generally false.
#4) given #3 (sales are up a huge amount) then shipping companies profits being up is not strange. They are moving goods as fast as they can.
#5) we've covered this multiple times, but there are very limited routes and not that many major ports on the west coast, there is a vast empty (comparatively) middle of the country, and so much shipping is concentrated from Asia and very geographically far from the east coast of the US. The US has seriously under invested in infrastructure for a really long time, and with a big jump in sales, a (potentially localized) trucker shortage, and maxed-out rail lines, there is no other option.
#6) The point being this bill may fix some things, but it's not going to fix everything, and it remains to be seen if it's going to make shipping cheaper.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:49 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
You can also tell the driver shortage is growing by noticing that a real percentage of truck drivers are Indian immigrants, which means the job is filtering downwards. I think we've had some posts about the growth in Indian immigrant truckers before.
#2: The article implies that the stocking fees are the reason for some of the delay. I'm not sure I agree, with the anecdote that the marginal cost of shipping must be being driven downwards, so the truckers and freight handlers are grasping at any revenue source they can find. You can see this in cities that have been starved of revenue sources using fines and forfeitures of the police force as a revenue generating model. So if the bill being considered by Congress doesn't allow new revenue sources then shipping isn't going to get better. The revenue lost in fees has to be made up somewhere.
#3: Yes there is some backups at the ports - but consumer sales are also up over 10% over 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. There are 3 possible reasons for this: 1) inflation concerns are pushing purchases forward 2) the Gov't giving people cash is having a real effect on the economy 3) retail is taking sales from experiences, like hotel & travel. In any case, up 10% in one year is HUGE - most years it grows at around 2%. So this tells us more goods are being shipped, and so complaints about JIT or warehousing in trailers may be true of some very specific products, but is generally false.
#4) given #3 (sales are up a huge amount) then shipping companies profits being up is not strange. They are moving goods as fast as they can.
#5) we've covered this multiple times, but there are very limited routes and not that many major ports on the west coast, there is a vast empty (comparatively) middle of the country, and so much shipping is concentrated from Asia and very geographically far from the east coast of the US. The US has seriously under invested in infrastructure for a really long time, and with a big jump in sales, a (potentially localized) trucker shortage, and maxed-out rail lines, there is no other option.
#6) The point being this bill may fix some things, but it's not going to fix everything, and it remains to be seen if it's going to make shipping cheaper.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:49 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
Truck driver incomes have gone down by circa 50% in adjusted dollars since the 1970s. It's little wonder that people today aren't clamoring to enter that profession.
posted by slkinsey at 7:53 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by slkinsey at 7:53 AM on December 21, 2021 [3 favorites]
automated driver logs and monitoring systems have so made the truck driving job extremely unattractive by stripping away a lot the drivers sense of autonomy and mastery of their job
I have roughly about as much sympathy for that argument as I do for police officers who have quit because they don't like body cameras. That "sense of autonomy" and "mastery of their job" is in no way impacted... unless they're doing shit they shouldn't be doing, and which is frankly dangerous to other road users, and is illegal for a whole bunch of very good reasons.
The reason electronic driver logs are common now is because, bluntly, too many drivers were fabricating and/or otherwise lying in their logbooks to get around the rules—rules that exist because nobody else really wants to, and shouldn't have to, share the road with someone who's been driving for 18 hours straight. (TBH, I'm pretty familiar with the FMCSA Hours of Service Regs, and some of them strike me as too lenient. You can legally get away with 16 hours behind the wheel at a stretch under "adverse driving conditions", with only a 30 minute break. We don't allow train crews to work that many hours; we definitely don't allow commercial pilots. It's nuts.)
There are some CDL rules that I do agree are bullshit, particularly around drug testing. It's dumber than hell that we continue to include marijuana on DOT drug tests, particularly now that mouth-swab tests for immediate cannabis use exist. There's no rational basis for keeping it, and it's only the total dysfunctionality of our government that keeps things the way they are (although I suspect that the trucking industry has enough pull that they could get it changed, if they really wanted to; they're certainly good at getting other kinds of favorable regulation). I wouldn't be surprised if that's costing the industry a lot of potential drivers.
I also have some questions as to whether the industry would pick up a significant number of new drivers if they made it more appealing to women. Currently less than 8-10% (depending on methodology) of OTR drivers are women, so there's a lot of room for growth there. This is shared by many other logistics-related industries, all of whom deserve some side-eye for complaining about worker shortages.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:37 AM on December 21, 2021 [10 favorites]
I have roughly about as much sympathy for that argument as I do for police officers who have quit because they don't like body cameras. That "sense of autonomy" and "mastery of their job" is in no way impacted... unless they're doing shit they shouldn't be doing, and which is frankly dangerous to other road users, and is illegal for a whole bunch of very good reasons.
The reason electronic driver logs are common now is because, bluntly, too many drivers were fabricating and/or otherwise lying in their logbooks to get around the rules—rules that exist because nobody else really wants to, and shouldn't have to, share the road with someone who's been driving for 18 hours straight. (TBH, I'm pretty familiar with the FMCSA Hours of Service Regs, and some of them strike me as too lenient. You can legally get away with 16 hours behind the wheel at a stretch under "adverse driving conditions", with only a 30 minute break. We don't allow train crews to work that many hours; we definitely don't allow commercial pilots. It's nuts.)
There are some CDL rules that I do agree are bullshit, particularly around drug testing. It's dumber than hell that we continue to include marijuana on DOT drug tests, particularly now that mouth-swab tests for immediate cannabis use exist. There's no rational basis for keeping it, and it's only the total dysfunctionality of our government that keeps things the way they are (although I suspect that the trucking industry has enough pull that they could get it changed, if they really wanted to; they're certainly good at getting other kinds of favorable regulation). I wouldn't be surprised if that's costing the industry a lot of potential drivers.
I also have some questions as to whether the industry would pick up a significant number of new drivers if they made it more appealing to women. Currently less than 8-10% (depending on methodology) of OTR drivers are women, so there's a lot of room for growth there. This is shared by many other logistics-related industries, all of whom deserve some side-eye for complaining about worker shortages.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:37 AM on December 21, 2021 [10 favorites]
The_Vegetables: #1: I think there is a driver shortage. Maybe it is localized.
I suspect there might be two different definitions of "shortage" being used here. How many people are trained and licensed to do the job? Lots and lots, more than enough. How many of those are willing to be truckers at current wages? Not as many. How many would be glad to have those signing bonuses but don't trust that it'll continue to be a financially viable career once the current panic is over? Probably some.
posted by clawsoon at 9:43 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
I suspect there might be two different definitions of "shortage" being used here. How many people are trained and licensed to do the job? Lots and lots, more than enough. How many of those are willing to be truckers at current wages? Not as many. How many would be glad to have those signing bonuses but don't trust that it'll continue to be a financially viable career once the current panic is over? Probably some.
posted by clawsoon at 9:43 AM on December 21, 2021 [5 favorites]
This is what I find so lacking in legacy news systems … actual analysis to explain what's going on. … The bizarre definition of 'objectivity' used by big reporting organizations … This was a great read, and I learned more from it that I have from the last week of my news comsumption.Reminder: you can subscribe to BIG (I do) or gift a subscription as a way to support this kind of journalism. Paid newsletters cannot replace fully-staffed news rooms, but in some specific ways they are much better.
posted by PresidentOfDinosaurs at 11:31 AM on December 21, 2021 [1 favorite]
The reason electronic driver logs are common now is because, bluntly, too many drivers were fabricating and/or otherwise lying in their logbooks to get around the rules
I worked for a company that owned its own trucks, so all the DOT rules and record keeping applied. Fake log books was just an openly discussed thing, part of normal operations. It was expected by the owners, but of course the drivers were the ones risking penalties if they were caught.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 PM on December 21, 2021 [4 favorites]
I worked for a company that owned its own trucks, so all the DOT rules and record keeping applied. Fake log books was just an openly discussed thing, part of normal operations. It was expected by the owners, but of course the drivers were the ones risking penalties if they were caught.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 PM on December 21, 2021 [4 favorites]
Related: Truck drivers are organizing a boycott of Colorado roads after a trucker was sentenced to a 110-year prison sentence following brake failure on a highway.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 10:57 AM on December 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 10:57 AM on December 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
His sentence has been reduced to 10 years by Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.
posted by Mitheral at 2:46 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 2:46 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
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I don't usually have any interest in this sort of thing but I was waiting for IT to fix my work computer so I read the whole thing. So interesting! I wonder how things would be different if one of the three mega-mega ocean carriers were U.S. based. But they aren't.
posted by Glinn at 11:40 AM on December 20, 2021 [1 favorite]