Biden's Economic Performance Has Proved Unbeatable
December 29, 2021 12:38 PM   Subscribe

 
No fucking shit. The first year was basically buoyed by shoving money into the pockets of every poor American and them going out and spending it.

However wages, paid leave, sick leave, healthcare remain shittiest in the developed world. No student debt cancelled despite it being a crushing drag on the economy and its cancellation would be the biggest single action to build black wealth in history. Pandemic? No federal solution despite the federal government being the only entity able to command the economy basically to do whatever is needed in times of crisis.

Then we wonder why people won't vote Democratic. Where is the fucking governance we were supposed to get from milquetoast white guy restoring normalcy?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:51 PM on December 29, 2021 [65 favorites]


relevant Metatalk thread
posted by ethand at 12:57 PM on December 29, 2021 [43 favorites]


I call this graph:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KlJk

"# Of Years Until Everyone In The USA Is Laid Off"

showing just how dire the situation was in early 2020.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KlJs

compares # employed (blue) vs 74% of the age 15-64 population (red), the latter being a rough estimate of "full employment". This shows we're still missing ~3 million jobs compared to "full employment" so let's not start [insert Pulp Fiction reference here].

Also, we're basically running an MMT experiment now (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL) with the Fed having pushed $2T of new money into the economy this past year (or however that works, a lot of this is just expanded lending creating new money thanks to rock-bottom interest rates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KlK1).

Next year isn't going to be so . . . expansive I fear.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:00 PM on December 29, 2021 [8 favorites]


Also, we're basically running a MMT experiment now (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL) with the Fed having pushed $2T of new money into the economy this past year (or however that works, a lot of this is just expanded lending creating new money thanks to rock-bottom interest rates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KlK1).

We've been doing the same thing every year since 2008. Basically since all the wealth the Fed puts into the system just flows to the 1% the extra cash can't actually do anything inflationary. 90% of what the Fed is printing is just going onto a bigger pile of gold for the dragons of the rich to sit on and hoard.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:04 PM on December 29, 2021 [19 favorites]


And yet only ~37% of the public approves of his handling of economy, compared to 56% who disapprove.

I think the article hits it with this point: ​"Per capita disposable income, which rose 1.08% this year, is the only comparable weakness for Biden, trailing Donald Trump’s 2.17%, George W. Bush’s 2.01%, Jimmy Carter’s 1.80% and Ronald Reagan’s 1.42%."

Also I'm not sure that being "#1 in growth in consumer credit borrowing" is actually a good thing. The article says it signals high consumer confidence, but to me it suggests people being stretched thin. "#1 in growth in high-interest consumer debt" doesn't have quite the same ring to it, eh?

The approval numbers are even worse for congressional Democrats, with Republicans holding a 10 point advantage on the question of control of Congress. That's over twice as high as it's been in the past 20 years. It's...not great.

The Democrats have ~11 months to get some version of the BBB past Machin, hopefully with the child tax credits intact. That's a simple, solid message that Democrats can take to the polls: "The Republicans will take away ~$3600 per year in tax-free money from each of your children."
posted by jedicus at 1:04 PM on December 29, 2021 [19 favorites]


I'm going to be hopefully a little less cross than the initial poster, but I have same question:

Isn't this something silly to be crowing over? Our economy went from basically a dead-halt in 2020 to ramping back up the point that the CDC just changed quarantined guidelines, not because the pandemic is going better, but because apparently we just need to get people back to work.

Of course your economy does well when you just shrug off the deaths of hundreds of thousands for the sake of saving the almighty Economy.

I guess it just seems a little silly to be acting like it's a big deal. Just like when the Biden admin acted like a Thanksgiving dinner costing a few cents less than the previous year was a big deal.

People want stuff that helps them, and when "The Economy" is doing well, 90% of people aren't, it begins to leave them wondering where this prosperity is, and why it isn't helping them.

Also, it's a slap in the face when companies are making record profits but they still:
A) Run on skeleton crews, thus have no one to cover for anyone else, ever.
B) Refuse to even consider paying a living wage or giving better benefits.

Just, sorry, until that improved economy helps regular ass people, no one gives a flying fuck.
posted by deadaluspark at 1:04 PM on December 29, 2021 [51 favorites]


Heywood Mogroot III, those graphs are amazing, thank you.
posted by agentofselection at 1:05 PM on December 29, 2021


This chart shows why people aren't feeling the love. The money is flowing in hot and heavy to everyone up top.
posted by msbutah at 1:11 PM on December 29, 2021 [18 favorites]


It doesn't matter how well it's going. There needs to be a feeling that it's going well. Elections are won and lost on these feelings, these narratives that politicians and their press arms build. And Republicans are better at creating negative feelings, which are stronger, due to our evolutionary bias towards them. It's not fair that people think Biden is weak and disengaged; he's not, and neither was Jimmy Carter.

If Democrats don't find a way to beat this feeling back with a different, stronger feeling, there's no telling how bad things will get. The BBB would help; voting rights legislation is necessary; but perhaps the strongest negative feeling would be if some people were being prosecuted for their coup attempt around the time of the midterms.

I don't know man. I just have to take every day as it comes.
posted by Countess Elena at 1:11 PM on December 29, 2021 [30 favorites]


It's not fair that people think Biden is weak and disengaged

He fucking fell asleep during Climate talks. Climate talks that ended up being "oohhh weeee we wanna do something about Climate change but we just can't because it would hurt profits ooohh weeee."

Like no offense, he was sleeping during literally the most important talks of his Presidency that affect the future of the entire human race.

He is weak and disengaged.

He's literally hiding a memo on student loan forgiveness behind "national security" bullshit.

"Nothing will fundamentally change" is ringing in my ears like god damned tinnitus.
posted by deadaluspark at 1:15 PM on December 29, 2021 [41 favorites]


relevant Metatalk thread

I really don't like the idea that the only acceptable responses on MetaFilter to a post are positive ones in the name of a false, meaningless "kindness". This is a serious issue and there are legitimate criticisms and concerns being offered by posters here. These aren't people dropping into a thread on jazz to say jazz sucks. This site would frankly be useless if the norm here is to say "this is fine" with a rictus grin plastered on one's face.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:22 PM on December 29, 2021 [59 favorites]


Exceptional returns from dollar-denominated assets, especially the S&P 500 Index in both absolute terms and relative to its global counterparts, can be attributed to record-low debt ratios enabling companies to reap the biggest profit margins since 1950.

Thanks for the post - it's an interesting take on the economy but I am very tired of assessments of the economy that lead with the stock market. That's not the economic reality for most people. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of what Biden has been doing for the most part but the stock market is not the economy.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:23 PM on December 29, 2021 [8 favorites]


The article seems to be presenting a bunch of stats just for the sake of showing them. Almost like there was an AI programmed to monitor data and then pitch articles about it. Like, the same AI might pitch an article about someone suddenly walking much more after their broken leg healed.

The big problem is that there is basically no good news. We’re lucky to hear when something is not quite as terrible as it could be. Is it Joe Biden’s fault? I don’t think so. I felt some optimism, or at least relief, when he got into office. But the Dems don’t have the power/unity/guts to do great stuff. A couple years of “could be worse” will absolutely translate into worse when Dems lose House and Senate.
posted by snofoam at 1:24 PM on December 29, 2021 [11 favorites]


What about inflation? That's becoming a real problem, especially when wages aren't going up with it.
posted by greatalleycat at 1:26 PM on December 29, 2021 [2 favorites]


Anything that can be used to counter an argument for DJT being elected in 2024 is not without its merits, but...
we've just spent 769 Bn on the pentagon without addressing voter reform or student loans and the host of other social issues he's been elected to work on. he's allowed manchin to hijack his domestic agenda, and he hasn't packed the SCOTUS to counter the idiots DJT put there.
It's only been a year, but he's got a lot of work to do if he wants me not to shrug and look for a 3rd party to vote for next time around. i'm getting tired, as many others are, i know, of excuses for not helping the progressives who put him in office.
posted by OHenryPacey at 1:31 PM on December 29, 2021 [11 favorites]


Let's be clear here: the economy is not doing that well.

To specify: an economy is a way of distributing goods and services among the population. One could think of it as the circulatory system of the nation.

Articles like this aren't looking to see if blood is getting to the extremities. Our digits are at risk of gangrene, and they're crowing about how much blood is pooling in other parts of the body.

The ONLY use I have for articles like this are to be able to say, "look, the economy's doing well, so stop saying we don't have the money for fundamental services or decent wages."

But let's not pat ourselves on the back because Dollars Georg has had a good year.
posted by explosion at 1:36 PM on December 29, 2021 [49 favorites]


I'm really curious about how all the stats quoted in the article are meant to translate to Americans without significant capital exposure. Because if things are really as booming as quoted... why is nobody feeling it?
(There's, of course, always the alternate outcome of "my sample of the US is limited, because it very definitionally is, and everybody's out having a party just out of my vision", but that prompts follow-up questions of its own)

• "record-low debt ratios enabling companies to reap the biggest profit margins since 1950."

Great! (or so I'm told). How does this translate to him getting re-elected?
10 market and economic indicators:

Gross domestic product (1)
Profit growth (1)
S&P 500 performance (2)
Consumer credit (1)
Non-farm payrolls (2)
Manufacturing jobs (2)
Business productivity (2)
Dollar appreciation (2)
S&P 500 relative performance (2)
If each of these being #1 or #2 is translating to the status quo... should the takeaway be that they're negatively correlated with well-being? Is this supposed to flip self-described economic GOP voters?

Corporate America was never healthier than under Biden in 2021. Efforts to support consumers flowed through to America’s companies, which are enjoying profit margins of around 15%, the widest since 1950

Ok, *this* is useful. A plain-as-day statement that efforts to support consumers (as structured by the Democratic party) will instead flow through to pad corporate profit margins.

Although some of the gains reflect a rebound from 2020 when the pandemic caused many consumers to retrench, they wouldn’t be adding debt if they weren’t feeling confident.
[citation needed] This seems like a particularly un-earned statement. Alternate interpretation, "people are running out of options since aid dried up to push people back into unsafe working conditions, so they're taking on debt to tread water"
posted by CrystalDave at 1:53 PM on December 29, 2021 [5 favorites]


He's literally hiding a memo on student loan forgiveness behind "national security" bullshit.

I've now read through as many repetitive news articles and discussion sites on that memo as I can google up without making my eyes bleed but I haven't found a single reference to that claim. One on attorney-client privilege, many complaints about the fact the memo is redacted, nothing about national security. More personally, I did find these unredacted sections in the various email discussions about the memo edits in the FOIA response:
Two competing thoughts on litigation risk analysis: ... If this is intended to be public-facing, we may want to more directly engage with the Rubinstein memo ... Our Rubinstein countering in the original was...
If I was hoping to have Biden forgive student loans by executive action, and expecting it to be challenged in court, this sounds like a memo I'd very much not want to see exposed early. WTF is Debt Collective doing here?
posted by traveler_ at 2:02 PM on December 29, 2021 [2 favorites]


I really don't like the idea that the only acceptable responses on MetaFilter to a post are positive ones in the name of a false, meaningless "kindness". This is a serious issue and there are legitimate criticisms and concerns being offered by posters here. These aren't people dropping into a thread on jazz to say jazz sucks. This site would frankly be useless if the norm here is to say "this is fine" with a rictus grin plastered on one's face.

I agree that we don't need a bunch of false positivity, and this probably isn't the kind of post to which the "if you don't like the thing, just move on" portion of the advice from MetaTalk post was really directed at. However, I know it makes me really reluctant to participate in these conversations because the threads often turn into a bunch of comments that seem to be using the post and other people's comments as jumping off points for snarky hot takes and complaints, often extrapolating wildly in their representation of what the person originally said, rather than engaging with others in a more thoughtful way. I do think we could make an effort to disagree and debate in political threads without shitting on everything to the point that we drive people away from posting.

People here are making a really good point about how the success of "the economy" doesn't mean much to people when ordinary people aren't in a good financial position. Bloomberg News (child of Michael Bloomberg) has a big focus on reporting about the stock market and similar metrics and, I suspect, has a perspective that doesn't mean much to people who don't have $$$ in investments. The fact that powerful people measure the health of "the economy" by these numbers instead of looking at, for example, the shitty working conditions of Amazon employees and crushing student debt is a huge problem.

I do think, for that subset of people who cares about "the stock market" and "gross domestic product" as "the economy," the article fairly makes the point that this narrative of democrats being bad for "the economy" doesn't make a lot of sense. When republicans criticize democrats for being bad on "the economy," they're often talking about these metrics, and the media often just seems to perpetuate that idea without checking whether it's even accurate. So in a way a good point, but also reflecting what is wrong with the conversation about "the economy" that powerful people are having.
posted by Squalor Victoria at 2:30 PM on December 29, 2021 [22 favorites]


i'm not sure i trust a lot of economic statistics these days - especially from a reporter and editor who thinks that Jan 20 to Dec 20 is 12 months

what other math did they get wrong?

it's getting real hard to tell news from bullshit these days
posted by pyramid termite at 2:40 PM on December 29, 2021 [5 favorites]


I think the main point is that the economy is delivering unprecedented, obscene winnings to the very top of the pyramid, but the average person is not benefitting and may in fact be suffering despite all the wealth being created. There is almost zero interest in changing this among the main elements in both parties, so we continue to see things get worse.
posted by chaz at 2:48 PM on December 29, 2021 [5 favorites]


People are being asked to show up to work with COVID. I literally looked up a comment in March 2019 where I called that the previous culture of forcing people to go to work sick wouldn't change, and eventually we would be back to the same old bullshit, just in a pandemic. I've seen plenty of threads in /r/antiwork where people who work shitty retail jobs were being asked to just ignore it or not get a test, and when they wanted to quarantine or get a test they would be let go.

It's not just that companies are making record profits. They're doing it while literally having their workforce sacrifice themselves and their customers for them to do it. (Which is particularly egregious when it comes to homecare and healthcare workers) At what point are we going to stand back and say enough is enough and that all the "metrics" in the world won't paper over an exploitative system.

I mean, it's not like working in America was a great thing before COVID. Women who work at places like McDonald's still have to deal with shitty sexual harassment and had to strike this October over it. Like, what has actually fucking changed? Shit just got worse and people were expected to work through the whole thing just to prop up those numbers for Biden.

The fact that there isn't a solemn god damned procession of coffins and the President eulogizing everyone who died from an infection caught at a workplace during the pandemic is a glaring tragedy and a constant reminder that the working class is treated as completely disposable. The thing is, the pandemic just took the damn mask off of polite society. When all the restaurants shut down, "polite society" made it clear that getting back to having someone serve them food was way the fuck more important than public health. The economy we're touting here is an economy built on the backs of these "essential workers" who probably have fucking PTSD from dealing with a pandemic and the most abusive customer base in history. This economy wouldn't exist without every single retail worker, factory worker, and delivery driver that dropped dead in the name of the economy.

In November I saw that Biden's economic advisor expected workforce engagement to turn around by February, because that's when they expected everyone's pandemic savings to run out. Which read to me as that they're just starving out the working class and waiting for them to accept the shitty conditions and get back to work.

I'm sick of being gaslight. This article and articles like it are fucking gaslighting me and telling me that my lived reality is false and really "things are actually great, because look at this chart!" This is why people don't have faith on government, because they're sick of being gaslit over painfully obvious shit.
posted by deadaluspark at 3:34 PM on December 29, 2021 [44 favorites]


And if we're talking "the economy" and whether anyone should take American markets seriously as though they are pristine and not corrupted, no one need to look any further than Nancy Pelosi.

Like, seriously, touting the economy after she defends what amounts to insider trading being legal for the political class? How tone deaf is this administration?

If this is Democratic "messaging" then no wonder everyone says they absolutely suck at it.
posted by deadaluspark at 3:59 PM on December 29, 2021 [11 favorites]


Well, corporations are basically AI software run on human hardware (wetware?), and right now they're almost all programmed to maximize profits to the corporation while treating the wetware as disposable. What did you think was going to happen? Until corporations and the people who run them are forced to consider something other than profits first, it is just going to get worse.
posted by Blackanvil at 4:34 PM on December 29, 2021 [10 favorites]


I think we can allow ourselves five minutes of calling this good news before adding all the asterisks. Not just because of the whole "perfect is the opposite of good" thing, but also because if anyone wants Democrats to win in the next two elections, crapping all over good economic news because it's not good enough, or good in the right way, isn't the best strategy.

This is good news to the people who "vote the economy" without paying attention to what that actually means. If Trump runs again, he'll keep pushing his list of "bests" and "mosts" - half of them completely made up! A Bloomberg headline saying that Biden's economy growth beat every President in the last 50 years should be something we should be giving as much play as possible - not something to say isn't meaningful and handing Republicans the extra talking points. We can do that while still pushing for making things better.

Not looking for a fight here - I don't disagree with anyone above. It's just exhausting watching the call coming from inside the house in slow motion.
posted by Mchelly at 5:41 PM on December 29, 2021 [13 favorites]


What’s exhausting is the “if you want Democrats to win” stuff. When Democrats are really acting as independents while the Republican Party is basically lock step.
posted by one4themoment at 6:11 PM on December 29, 2021 [7 favorites]


I agree that we don't need a bunch of false positivity, and this probably isn't the kind of post to which the "if you don't like the thing, just move on" portion of the advice from MetaTalk post was really directed at.

Yeah, as the guy who made that Metatalk post, I want to be clear that I was talking about, like, posts about Weird Al videos and shit.
posted by bondcliff at 6:44 PM on December 29, 2021 [20 favorites]


Seriously, as if anybody has anything negative to say about Weird Al of all people.
posted by deadaluspark at 6:54 PM on December 29, 2021 [6 favorites]


as if anybody has anything negative to say about Weird Al

I mean, I've seen tighter accordion play, but YMMV
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 7:27 PM on December 29, 2021 [5 favorites]


When all the restaurants shut down, "polite society" made it clear that getting back to having someone serve them food was way the fuck more important than public health.

So I was at a restaurant a week and a half ago for the first time in over a year. It weren't just the owner/management that was treating public health as unimportant. Most of the staff made their own choice not to bother wearing a mask. A few were masked, so clearly it wasn't some edict from on high. If it weren't for the outdoor seating far away from others and my own mask, I would have left.

To be clear, I'm not saying you're wrong, only that it's more complicated.
posted by wierdo at 8:02 PM on December 29, 2021 [2 favorites]


Let me pull one sentence from the article to summarize the whole thing:

"Corporate America was never healthier than under Biden in 2021."
posted by AlSweigart at 9:40 PM on December 29, 2021 [18 favorites]


Corporate America being healthy is not a bad thing. What is a bad thing is how corporate health has been at the expense of (most of) the people for the past 40-some years. We can do better on that count. We have done better. We need to do better again.

Indeed, in many cases corporate america is making mouth noises about responsibility and including all stakeholders. It would be great if we could turn those almost entirely symbolic gestures into a real system. It wouldn't be perfect, but it would get us a hell of a lot closer to where we need to be.
posted by wierdo at 12:41 AM on December 30, 2021 [3 favorites]


Okay, so, I'm like a lapsed anarchist who has, especially during the Trump years, been like, right obviously fascism is a lot worse than neoliberal capitalism so we've got to make sure Democrats get elected. I've tried to persuade my leftist social circles to vote and to vote for Democrats. I've donated to Democratic campaigns and volunteered for hours texting for Democratic campaigns.

And now I'm so disheartened and sick of Democrats saying one thing--"we'll cancel $10,000 worth of student debt for everyone! We'll finally allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies!" and then doing another, and that other thing somehow magically, coincidentally always involves favoring the interests of the wealthy and of giant piles of money over everyone else, that I'm not sure I'll be able to force myself to help out anymore. Like, I feel a little bit like, fuck it, burn it all down, who cares if Democrats win if this is what they do while in power? Now, I'm not taking that too far, I'm not suicidal, of course I'm going to vote for whatever Democrat against whatever Republican, but I don't know if I can stomach volunteering for Democrats after this.

This is the political variable I think Democratic strategists are missing. You've got to fight for something, you've got to give people something to believe in so they'll fight with you. That's worth more than x amount of campaign contribution or being praised by x columnist as moderate and sensible.

Sometimes I wonder if, strategically or necessarily, they'll do student loan forgiveness a few months before the election, to maximize impact and excitement. But I'm having a hard time believing in both the ethics and the political instincts of most Democratic politicians these days.
posted by overglow at 7:53 AM on December 30, 2021 [11 favorites]


> What is a bad thing is how corporate health has been at the expense of (most of) the people for the past 40-some years.

I'm an elder millennial in my late thirties, and "40-some years" has been my entire life. Don't tell me that rich people getting richer and getting more power and influence isn't a bad thing. The problem with dictators isn't that we haven't found one that's benevolent enough.

Like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football, I'm still dutifully turning out to vote Democrat. Don't tell me that the problem is Lucy needs sensitivity training or a bigger budget for football-holding gloves.
posted by AlSweigart at 8:29 AM on December 30, 2021 [8 favorites]


overglow: > This is the political variable I think Democratic strategists are missing. You've got to fight for something, you've got to give people something to believe in so they'll fight with you. That's worth more than x amount of campaign contribution or being praised by x columnist as moderate and sensible.

Absolutely. The Dems don't seem to realize that they need to be a positive force, and not simply an oppositional force. Or, that people need to vote for them because of their policies, and not simply because they're not the Republicans.
posted by Cpt. The Mango at 9:17 AM on December 30, 2021 [6 favorites]


This is an interesting Pew report re: stability of wage inequality throughout the pandemic so far. I guess it hasn't gotten worse?
posted by nat at 10:53 AM on December 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


overglow, "lapsed anarchist" resonates with me—though "anarchist manquée" may be more accurate.

The thing I'm most troubled about re:the economy—I mean, most viscerally pissed about—is the ending of the monthly child tax credit checks. Three out of four of my children are adults; one is teenager. The checks have been more-or-less a convenience for us. But when I think about when the kids were small—when I worked from home part-time with no childcare support, when many of our friends had childcare bills bigger than their mortgage payments, when people who wanted a second child were deciding not to because they couldn't afford it—and when I think about the people who leave their kids unsupervised or in sub-par care in order to keep shitty jobs, or who can't keep their shitty jobs because their kids get sick—those monthly payments are hugely important to those families. Millions of children raised out of poverty! But only for six months. After that, who cares?

I never liked Biden. But somehow I hoped he would come into office with a sense of urgency about undoing what Trump wrought, and a sense of urgency about helping people who are held back by broken systems—those overburdened with college debt, families with young children. It's been so discouraging to feel that he and his administration are lollygagging while there is so much urgent need for relief.
posted by Well I never at 12:16 PM on December 30, 2021 [4 favorites]


Most Democrats, including Biden, are in support of the child tax credit and most of the other things people are complaining about them having not done. Two notionally Democratic Senators are not, and it's fucking killing the rest of the party. It's just too bad that literally zero Republicans in the Senate don't have their heads so far up Trump's ass that they can be convinced to do the right thing in exchange for some pork. Lord knows efforts have been made.
posted by wierdo at 1:25 PM on December 30, 2021


Two notionally Democratic Senators are not, and it's fucking killing the rest of the party.

Just strip them of everything. Committee assignments. Office. Parking spot. Want to be a Democratic Party member? Be a fucking party member. Stand up for things we believe in. But Schumer won't because he's playing a game he's been fucking mediocre at since he inherited the position.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:57 PM on December 30, 2021 [4 favorites]


If you post something negative on metafilter.com it may blow the next election for the Democrats, and, well, if we want to be able to tell people that the Democrats will finally do something with the Oval Office, the House, and 52 Senators, first we're going to need to get them to the Oval Office, the House, and 51 Senators.
posted by dusty potato at 3:05 PM on December 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


Couple of thoughts:

1. Consider the source and point of view: the article was written by "Matthew Winkler, Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Bloomberg News". As far as he (and a lot of his readers) are concerned, corporate wealth does equate to personal wealth. The average Bloomberg reader is probably very exposed to the stock market, which is where all this excess money is basically going. The Fed is pumping it in via low interest rates, and companies are taking advantage of it and reaping profits. Those profits flow out to shareholders. This is good whether you've got a lot of wealth in one company (e.g. a CEO), or a lot of companies across whom you've spread your wealth (e.g. someone with a diversified 401K). The 401K set is basically the readership of Bloomberg.

2. Keeping the stock market going up, or at least sideways, is politically important. If it had gone down overall, or worse yet if we had gone into a recession, Biden would be far worse off. "STONKS GO UP" is a necessary—but not sufficient—condition to be seen as a successful US President.

3. There not being a whole lot of good news going around right now, it seems understandable that the Biden Administration might not mind this framing. They don't have much else to hang their hat on. But it's not clear to me what exactly they should have done differently. From where I'm sitting, it seems like they eked out about as many Ws as they could, given the players and the starting conditions. It doesn't seem like the failure to pass the BBB, or get a $15/hr minimum wage, or whatever, is due to lack of interest. Short of, I dunno, having the CIA arrange for Joe Manchin to have an unfortunate and very fatal car accident (which, given CIA's track record at such things, would probably just end with a couple of dead interns), I'm not sure there's much more that could have been pushed through Congress.

4. I'd love to read some sort of deep inside baseball analysis of the Manchin situation from someone who knows what's going on behind closed doors. Maybe someday we'll get a good tell-all memoir; I'd love to know what sort of stuff he's been offered at this point. What does someone who basically stumbles into being the most powerful person in the world's most powerful government want? If assassination is off the table, it's probably time to just give it to him already. The dude is basically a political suicide bomber: if he doesn't get what he wants, everyone dies. There's no negotiation with that; you either call their bluff or give them what they want, and Manchin doesn't seem to be bluffing in terms of his willingness to absolutely fuck the country (and planet) if he doesn't get what he wants.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:55 PM on December 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


it's time to cut manchin loose - not because he's refused to vote yes on a bill the democrats wanted but because he bargained in bad faith as a member of his caucus - we can't just give "it" to him as he has refused to tell anyone what "it" is

i hope the progressive in congress have learned that they were basically lied to and manipulated into decoupling the two bills

watching this has been discouraging - i don't know how anything gets done with this government now
posted by pyramid termite at 5:15 PM on December 30, 2021 [2 favorites]


Cutting Manchin loose would put the Turtle back in charge of the senate and well we all know how that goes.
posted by Mitheral at 5:23 PM on December 30, 2021 [2 favorites]


I’m pretty sure you can’t fire an elected senator, regardless.
posted by Atom Eyes at 7:22 PM on December 30, 2021


the turtle would actually be in a position where he and his party could be blamed for inaction in 2022 - instead of the current situation where he is in charge in a passive aggressive manner

but then i probably want too much directness and honesty from our politicians - and too much putting the obstructionist on the hot seat

the real problem is the democrats won't fight and won't make this whole mess costly for those who are perpetuating it - frankly, many of them don't seem to want it bad enough - and that's why they keep losing, because the american people sense that
posted by pyramid termite at 7:26 PM on December 30, 2021


it's time to cut manchin loose

I get where that might be satisfying in the sort run, but let's play that out a bit: the Democratic delegation could take away his committee chairmanships and other perks, and the DNC could potentially expel him as a member of their organization (and promise not to fund his campaigns in the future). It's not clear he could actually be kept off the ballot as a candidate, and if he could, he'd probably be more than capable of funding an independent campaign and—if not actually winning as an I, which seems entirely possible—certainly torpedoing the "establishment" D candidate and handing a Senate seat to the Republicans.

The guy is basically sitting there with the political equivalent of a Semtex vest. Take him out, and he'll blow the whole fucking Senate, and the possibility of getting anything done. Keep him, and maybe you'll get something. If he says so.

(And for anyone who thinks there's a viable path in WV to the left of Manchin: it's been tried. Swearengin ran a very strong left-populist campaign, her Appalachian credentials were impeccable, and she supported all the stuff the left likes to claim is broadly popular, like Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, and free public college tuition. Ol' whiteboy Manchin absolutely crushed her, almost 70/30. She barely won a 3-way primary two years later, getting her the opportunity to lose by a similar margin except to a Republican. That path doesn't exist.)
posted by Kadin2048 at 7:46 PM on December 30, 2021 [3 favorites]


The approval numbers are even worse for congressional Democrats, with Republicans holding a 10 point advantage on the question of control of Congress. That's over twice as high as it's been in the past 20 years. It's...not great.

According to the article its 44 percent R to 34 percent D. It sounds like voters would like to vote "none of the above" if they could. I don't blame them. It seems more likely the Democrats lost support than the Republicans gained a lot of support, at least in that poll. The article says the Republicans held a two point advantage the month before.

Then again, 538's poll aggregator has Republicans up only .8 percent. Depressingly, the opposition party almost always gains in the midterms following a change in control of the White House.

On another related note, apparently I can't continue paying back my student loans while they aren't accruing interest even if I want to. I still have yet to receive the "welcome letter" to register with the new servicer of my loan that I've been promised. It's a clusterf**k.
posted by eagles123 at 8:57 PM on December 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


the turtle would actually be in a position where he and his party could be blamed for inaction in 2022

And he'd also make damn sure any judicial vacancies didn't get filled and any outstanding executive branch appointees don't get so much as a hearing. His tactics during the latter years of Obama's time in office fucked the lower courts as much as the Supreme Court and it sucks. The dipshits he was able to ram through because he made sure Trump would have way more vacancies than usual are directly responsible for vaccine mandates getting put on hold, shitty abortion rights decisions, and a pile of other shit far more fundamental than canceling student debt or most of the other things we like to shout about.

It's not the most visible work, but it is nonetheless very important work that keeps agencies like OSHA and EPA from being completely neutered by disingenuous Federalist Society asshats using specious Constitutional reasoning that even Scalia's ghost finds embarrassing.
posted by wierdo at 4:14 AM on December 31, 2021 [3 favorites]




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