‘Crazy’ omicron surge could peak soon
December 31, 2021 9:31 PM Subscribe
But the virus is unpredictable as the pandemic enters its third year The seven-day average of new, officially confirmed daily cases soared to more than 300,000 Wednesday. Then came the eye-popping Thursday numbers from state health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — 562,000 new cases, pushing the seven-day average to 343,000. The official number captures only a fraction of the true number of infections. People who use rapid tests at home may not report positive results. Many others never get tested when sick. And some people are infected but asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.
Shaman estimates the number of infections is four to five times the official count. Given that people remain infected for many days, that translates to many millions of active infections across the United States.
“We’re talking somewhere up to maybe 10 million people,” Shaman said. “Maybe not all of them are contagious yet. Crazy numbers. Crazy, crazy numbers.”
It's looking like they're finding why Omicron causes less severe disease.
I'm uncharacteristically optimistic that the super transmissible/less virulent strain may be the beginning of the turn into Covid-19 being the next common cold-causing coronavirus.
posted by hwyengr at 10:30 PM on December 31, 2021 [23 favorites]
I'm uncharacteristically optimistic that the super transmissible/less virulent strain may be the beginning of the turn into Covid-19 being the next common cold-causing coronavirus.
posted by hwyengr at 10:30 PM on December 31, 2021 [23 favorites]
The numbers from waste water might be more reliable than the covid case numbers. These Boston graphs are scary, ~8x the previous maximum from jan 21.
Link.
Even if omicron is half as deadly as delta, but infection is 8x or more, well. 4x or more the patients from delta, maybe.
posted by Ansible at 10:30 PM on December 31, 2021 [10 favorites]
Link.
Even if omicron is half as deadly as delta, but infection is 8x or more, well. 4x or more the patients from delta, maybe.
posted by Ansible at 10:30 PM on December 31, 2021 [10 favorites]
yes, there is overheated press on the explosion in case numbers--still after all this time negligently focused on case numbers alone, to get clicks--but there is not even a fraction of the same increase in covid-caused ICU admissions. i think it's pretty clear omicron is vastly less deadly than delta, at least to the vaccinated. and it confers immunity to delta.
posted by wibari at 10:38 PM on December 31, 2021 [16 favorites]
posted by wibari at 10:38 PM on December 31, 2021 [16 favorites]
here in Vancouver, our chief provincial health officer (not generally known for reckless optimism) just spoke of seeing the end of the pandemic ...
Though the province's daily cases are peaking, and contact tracing and testing are at full capacity (meaning B.C.'s true case counts are likely much higher), Henry says she believes the province will eventually see the end of the pandemic.
"The way the virus is changing with Omicron — that is leading us to that place sooner," she said. "The type of illness it's causing, with most of us being protected through vaccination, means that we are going to get to that place."
Henry says the virus will eventually become endemic as the season shifts to spring, more children get vaccinated and the spread of infection slows, though she said there are still many unknowns ahead.
posted by philip-random at 10:41 PM on December 31, 2021 [1 favorite]
Though the province's daily cases are peaking, and contact tracing and testing are at full capacity (meaning B.C.'s true case counts are likely much higher), Henry says she believes the province will eventually see the end of the pandemic.
"The way the virus is changing with Omicron — that is leading us to that place sooner," she said. "The type of illness it's causing, with most of us being protected through vaccination, means that we are going to get to that place."
Henry says the virus will eventually become endemic as the season shifts to spring, more children get vaccinated and the spread of infection slows, though she said there are still many unknowns ahead.
posted by philip-random at 10:41 PM on December 31, 2021 [1 favorite]
I feel like there's a lot of guessing going on, which comes as no surprise given the scientific method, but it sure doesn't seem to inspire people to be too careful. That's the peoples' fault, though.
Last week I was Christmas shopping at a craft store and in the checkout line. A woman was with her 12ish y.o. daughter about a foot and a half behind me. My anxiety builds over the course of a couple minutes until I turn around and say "Hey, I was exposed to Omicron the other day, you might want to try being smart." She points to the ~6ft space between me and the person in front of me in line, saying "you could go step over that way."
"Oh? Can I?"
She takes a step back. I look her in the eye and say "that doesn't look like six feet to me," after which she finally backs away. A minute passes, I'm reading my phone, and I look back and they had let someone go in front of them! Who knows what goes on in these peoples' heads, but I'm not hopeful that it can be called conscientiousness. From now on I'm just going to say, "I wouldn't get too close [koff koff]." Everybody knows the right thing to do, they just aren't doing it.
posted by rhizome at 10:47 PM on December 31, 2021 [31 favorites]
Last week I was Christmas shopping at a craft store and in the checkout line. A woman was with her 12ish y.o. daughter about a foot and a half behind me. My anxiety builds over the course of a couple minutes until I turn around and say "Hey, I was exposed to Omicron the other day, you might want to try being smart." She points to the ~6ft space between me and the person in front of me in line, saying "you could go step over that way."
"Oh? Can I?"
She takes a step back. I look her in the eye and say "that doesn't look like six feet to me," after which she finally backs away. A minute passes, I'm reading my phone, and I look back and they had let someone go in front of them! Who knows what goes on in these peoples' heads, but I'm not hopeful that it can be called conscientiousness. From now on I'm just going to say, "I wouldn't get too close [koff koff]." Everybody knows the right thing to do, they just aren't doing it.
posted by rhizome at 10:47 PM on December 31, 2021 [31 favorites]
Maryland hospitalizations are horrendous and reflect the case load from one to two weeks ago. Positivity rates are over 20%. We are waaaaay on the wrong side of omicron being less dangerous more than its more infectious.
Maybe in two weeks I'll look like a ln end-of-days sandwich board guy but like, go to the Maryland dashboard (on the testing volume graph, hit the left button).
This is apocalyptic and it's based on one to two week old case numbers.
I feel like someone on a beach screaming because the water's peeling off and everyone's lining up to gawk.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:48 PM on December 31, 2021 [48 favorites]
Maybe in two weeks I'll look like a ln end-of-days sandwich board guy but like, go to the Maryland dashboard (on the testing volume graph, hit the left button).
This is apocalyptic and it's based on one to two week old case numbers.
I feel like someone on a beach screaming because the water's peeling off and everyone's lining up to gawk.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:48 PM on December 31, 2021 [48 favorites]
Here in Seattle, positivity is up to about 40 to 50 percent. Lines for testing sites are huge. I hope the reports that omicron is less severe will help. But, after making it this far cleanly, has me bummed. Also, my son and I are heading to Utah, (my son flying, me driving through Idaho and then to Utah), make me concerned for the next few weeks.
Ugh.
Do your best to safe safe you all. Happy fucking New Year...
posted by Windopaene at 11:22 PM on December 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
Ugh.
Do your best to safe safe you all. Happy fucking New Year...
posted by Windopaene at 11:22 PM on December 31, 2021 [2 favorites]
We've clearly shifted to "let 'er rip" as public health policy, at least in the UK, US, Canada, etc. But no one in government is brave enough to stand up and say clearly that this is what we're doing.
We're counting on a lot of things going our way: 1) not too many people die because Omicron is less virulent even though many more people will be infected at once than previously (but the evidence so far is that it is likely somewhat less virulent than Delta, but more than the original variant or Alpha, so this seems not that likely given vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness and prior infection rates and effectiveness), 2) hospitals aren't too badly overwhelmed so people aren't dying who could have been treated (seems pretty optimistic for the same reasons, though data so far from London is not as bad as it could be), 3) the next variant doesn't escape immunity from Omicron infection (optimistic when we're letting a lot of people get infected and we know that the virus can and did mutate to escape immunity), and 4) most importantly long Covid is miraculously not a significant problem with Omicron (which we have no reason to believe as the vast majority of people with long Covid to date have had mild Covid cases). That seems like a lot of things that are unlikely to go our way individually. Counting on everything going our way together seems pretty wildly optimistic.
Maybe we're really lucky and things don't go too badly. Maybe we're not so lucky and a lot of people die, millions end up disabled by long Covid and we end up facing the same situation with the next wave soon.
I know we all want Covid to be like a common cold, but Omicron clearly isn't. I guess we're pining all our hopes on the next variant being more like a common cold or flu. That doesn't seem very likely, even if we really want it to be so.
posted by ssg at 11:26 PM on December 31, 2021 [43 favorites]
We're counting on a lot of things going our way: 1) not too many people die because Omicron is less virulent even though many more people will be infected at once than previously (but the evidence so far is that it is likely somewhat less virulent than Delta, but more than the original variant or Alpha, so this seems not that likely given vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness and prior infection rates and effectiveness), 2) hospitals aren't too badly overwhelmed so people aren't dying who could have been treated (seems pretty optimistic for the same reasons, though data so far from London is not as bad as it could be), 3) the next variant doesn't escape immunity from Omicron infection (optimistic when we're letting a lot of people get infected and we know that the virus can and did mutate to escape immunity), and 4) most importantly long Covid is miraculously not a significant problem with Omicron (which we have no reason to believe as the vast majority of people with long Covid to date have had mild Covid cases). That seems like a lot of things that are unlikely to go our way individually. Counting on everything going our way together seems pretty wildly optimistic.
Maybe we're really lucky and things don't go too badly. Maybe we're not so lucky and a lot of people die, millions end up disabled by long Covid and we end up facing the same situation with the next wave soon.
I know we all want Covid to be like a common cold, but Omicron clearly isn't. I guess we're pining all our hopes on the next variant being more like a common cold or flu. That doesn't seem very likely, even if we really want it to be so.
posted by ssg at 11:26 PM on December 31, 2021 [43 favorites]
first heard almost two years ago. worth repeating. Optimism is not a wise tactic for dealing with a virus.
posted by philip-random at 11:40 PM on December 31, 2021 [57 favorites]
posted by philip-random at 11:40 PM on December 31, 2021 [57 favorites]
My city went for well over a year with zero Covid cases but is now experiencing a bit of a wave. We dropped most public health measures around mid-November and and were sputtering along with 5-10 cases a day. A few days before Xmas case numbers started heading up quite rapidly and now we’re getting 450 cases per day in a city of 400k people.
The vaccination rate in the 12+ population here is 98.5%. The booster rollout is under way and 5-11 years olds will start getting their first shots next week. Today there are nine people being treated for Covid in hospital, none of them in ICU.
The Australian states where omicron is dominant are seeing a lot fewer hospitalisations than those where Delta is pervasive, at least so far.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 11:46 PM on December 31, 2021 [11 favorites]
The vaccination rate in the 12+ population here is 98.5%. The booster rollout is under way and 5-11 years olds will start getting their first shots next week. Today there are nine people being treated for Covid in hospital, none of them in ICU.
The Australian states where omicron is dominant are seeing a lot fewer hospitalisations than those where Delta is pervasive, at least so far.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 11:46 PM on December 31, 2021 [11 favorites]
yes, there is overheated press on the explosion in case numbers--still after all this time negligently focused on case numbers alone, to get clicks--but there is not even a fraction of the same increase in covid-caused ICU admissions
It's been this same pattern at the start of every wave. An uptick in cases, followed by a load of internet comments saying things like "cases are up, but hospitalisations and deaths aren't, and that's what really matters". A week or two later those comments drop off, as some fraction of human beings in that first spike graduate to being members of the first spikes in the other graphs.
posted by swr at 12:02 AM on January 1, 2022 [30 favorites]
It's been this same pattern at the start of every wave. An uptick in cases, followed by a load of internet comments saying things like "cases are up, but hospitalisations and deaths aren't, and that's what really matters". A week or two later those comments drop off, as some fraction of human beings in that first spike graduate to being members of the first spikes in the other graphs.
posted by swr at 12:02 AM on January 1, 2022 [30 favorites]
We've clearly shifted to "let 'er rip" as public health policy, at least in the UK, US, Canada, etc. But no one in government is brave enough to stand up and say clearly that this is what we're doing.
And they're doing it in the face of what is by far the most transmissible variant yet.
This is going to hit hard and fast. Hospitals are likely to be overloaded, and at the same time, short-staffed due to sickness.
Take care, folks. Of covid of course, but everything else too. Needing a hospital is never a good thing, but it's likely to be particularly bad over the next month or so, so take extra care to avoid it. As I see it, self interest and social responsibility are both aligned on this.
posted by swr at 12:13 AM on January 1, 2022 [15 favorites]
And they're doing it in the face of what is by far the most transmissible variant yet.
This is going to hit hard and fast. Hospitals are likely to be overloaded, and at the same time, short-staffed due to sickness.
Take care, folks. Of covid of course, but everything else too. Needing a hospital is never a good thing, but it's likely to be particularly bad over the next month or so, so take extra care to avoid it. As I see it, self interest and social responsibility are both aligned on this.
posted by swr at 12:13 AM on January 1, 2022 [15 favorites]
...but there is not even a fraction of the same increase in covid-caused ICU admissions.
Not even a fraction, you say?
posted by fairmettle at 12:44 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Not even a fraction, you say?
posted by fairmettle at 12:44 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
How to Pronounce "Omicron" the Star Trek Way
posted by kirkaracha at 12:47 AM on January 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 12:47 AM on January 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
Not even a fraction, you say?
yeah, it's more of a very small irrational number.
this whole debate ultimately boils down to something no two people will ever agree on: what is the value of a human life? is an elderly person's death hastened by a year worth a nine year old getting to have in-person school, or not? is an immunocompromised person's fear of getting infected worth a bar owner's livelihood? there are no perfect answers. in march 2020, the calculus was clearly in favor of one side over the other. at this point, the side favoring extreme caution has teetered into madness in my view, and even paranoia. as the risk from omicron becomes more narrow to smaller and smaller groups of the most vulnerable, versus the costs of endless panic to everyone else, extreme caution and endless wariness have to be viewed skeptically.
so yes, given the amount of omicron infection compared to the lack of deaths, not even a fraction.
posted by wibari at 1:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [24 favorites]
yeah, it's more of a very small irrational number.
this whole debate ultimately boils down to something no two people will ever agree on: what is the value of a human life? is an elderly person's death hastened by a year worth a nine year old getting to have in-person school, or not? is an immunocompromised person's fear of getting infected worth a bar owner's livelihood? there are no perfect answers. in march 2020, the calculus was clearly in favor of one side over the other. at this point, the side favoring extreme caution has teetered into madness in my view, and even paranoia. as the risk from omicron becomes more narrow to smaller and smaller groups of the most vulnerable, versus the costs of endless panic to everyone else, extreme caution and endless wariness have to be viewed skeptically.
so yes, given the amount of omicron infection compared to the lack of deaths, not even a fraction.
posted by wibari at 1:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [24 favorites]
My rudimentary understanding of viruses (from reading what's in the news) is that a virus doesn't want to kill its host, as it would then have nothing to live on, hence the mutation into allegedly less deadly variants. Reports suggest omicron is causing upper respiratory, rather than pulmonary, infections, but it's still too soon to consider it 'less serious' than other Covid variants. Maybe the next variant will be the one that will allow us to live with, rather than die from, the virus.
Nonetheless, I'm being as cautious as I was in March 2020, and avoiding unnecessary contact with strangers, keeping a distance, staying masked and gloved in the supermarket - and I've upgraded my masks to N95 or FP3s. A friend posted on Facebook that she'd tested positive, but was still going ahead with her NYE party, and people could wear a mask if they wanted to. She works in elder-care nursing. Absolutely insanity. You can't make this shit up.
posted by essexjan at 1:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
Nonetheless, I'm being as cautious as I was in March 2020, and avoiding unnecessary contact with strangers, keeping a distance, staying masked and gloved in the supermarket - and I've upgraded my masks to N95 or FP3s. A friend posted on Facebook that she'd tested positive, but was still going ahead with her NYE party, and people could wear a mask if they wanted to. She works in elder-care nursing. Absolutely insanity. You can't make this shit up.
posted by essexjan at 1:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
If Omicron is as deadly as the previous variants but far more contagious, and yet it kills far fewer people because the vaccines are effective, then that means that in the developed word we've basically beaten COVID. We've met the nightmare and defeated it.
If Omicron is more contagious but far less deadly, then that leaves open the possibility of another variant that is as contagious as Omicron but as deadly as the earlier variants, and could kill vast numbers even in a vaccinated population.
So which is the "optimistic" view varies. It depends whether you're considering the whole world or just developed world, and whether you're thinking about just the current variants or future variants.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:42 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
If Omicron is more contagious but far less deadly, then that leaves open the possibility of another variant that is as contagious as Omicron but as deadly as the earlier variants, and could kill vast numbers even in a vaccinated population.
So which is the "optimistic" view varies. It depends whether you're considering the whole world or just developed world, and whether you're thinking about just the current variants or future variants.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:42 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
a virus doesn't want to kill its host,
It seems to tend that way in a lot of cases but doesn't have to and it is important to remember there are a lot of sub optimal systems created by evolution that are none the less successful at least on human life time scales.
Smallpox was wildly successful as a virus even as it killed 30% of people it infected and not in a slow motion, takes several years way like HIV but within a few weeks. It also caused blindness in as many as 30% of the people who survived. It killed hundreds of millions of people in the 20th century alone. It existed for at least 20 centuries in that state (first physical evidence of the disease from 3rd century BCE Egyptian mummies and eradicated officially in 1980).
I used to think that if a new virus emerged that was as deadly as smallpox we'd be able to contain and eradicate it before it killed hundreds of millions of people. I no longer am that naïve and it scares me when I start thinking about it.
posted by Mitheral at 2:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [66 favorites]
It seems to tend that way in a lot of cases but doesn't have to and it is important to remember there are a lot of sub optimal systems created by evolution that are none the less successful at least on human life time scales.
Smallpox was wildly successful as a virus even as it killed 30% of people it infected and not in a slow motion, takes several years way like HIV but within a few weeks. It also caused blindness in as many as 30% of the people who survived. It killed hundreds of millions of people in the 20th century alone. It existed for at least 20 centuries in that state (first physical evidence of the disease from 3rd century BCE Egyptian mummies and eradicated officially in 1980).
I used to think that if a new virus emerged that was as deadly as smallpox we'd be able to contain and eradicate it before it killed hundreds of millions of people. I no longer am that naïve and it scares me when I start thinking about it.
posted by Mitheral at 2:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [66 favorites]
I was exposed to Omicron the other day [...] 6 feet [...]
Hey, just a PSA that 6 feet of distance isn't too effective unless you're in a place with extremely good ventilation. That recommendation came about back when we thought the virus traveled on heavier particles that end up sinking to the floor within a few feet. But turns out it's airborne and can and does travel much farther. Six feet of spacing is useful mostly to the extent that it reduces the number of people in a space, but it's not a measure that really reduces your individual chances of infection, especially when moving through a queue. It's important to keep up with changing recommendations, and the news, politicians, and even public health bodies seem to be doing a terrible job at spreading awareness of these changes. Other recommendations that have changed/are changing: infections don't seem to spread significantly via contact with objects; cloth masks alone don't cut it; the virus can stick around in a room even after the infected person leaves; with the current variants you can get infected within seconds, not 15-30 minutes; and surgical masks don't really cut it either, but if you have no choice then wear a surgical mask with either a cloth mask on top to make it fit to your face more closely, or a mask fitter brace. But what you should wear is n95, kn95, kf94, or ffp2 masks, and make sure you're buying them from a trustworthy source (not Amazon, for example) because there are a ton of counterfeits. Lots of information online about where to find good masks that I don't have time to look to at the moment.
And if you've been exposed, I'd stay home until testing negative. Omicron infections tend to show up 3-4 days after exposure, and delta infections (which are still around in the US, not sure about Canada) around 4-5 days after.
posted by trig at 2:49 AM on January 1, 2022 [71 favorites]
Hey, just a PSA that 6 feet of distance isn't too effective unless you're in a place with extremely good ventilation. That recommendation came about back when we thought the virus traveled on heavier particles that end up sinking to the floor within a few feet. But turns out it's airborne and can and does travel much farther. Six feet of spacing is useful mostly to the extent that it reduces the number of people in a space, but it's not a measure that really reduces your individual chances of infection, especially when moving through a queue. It's important to keep up with changing recommendations, and the news, politicians, and even public health bodies seem to be doing a terrible job at spreading awareness of these changes. Other recommendations that have changed/are changing: infections don't seem to spread significantly via contact with objects; cloth masks alone don't cut it; the virus can stick around in a room even after the infected person leaves; with the current variants you can get infected within seconds, not 15-30 minutes; and surgical masks don't really cut it either, but if you have no choice then wear a surgical mask with either a cloth mask on top to make it fit to your face more closely, or a mask fitter brace. But what you should wear is n95, kn95, kf94, or ffp2 masks, and make sure you're buying them from a trustworthy source (not Amazon, for example) because there are a ton of counterfeits. Lots of information online about where to find good masks that I don't have time to look to at the moment.
And if you've been exposed, I'd stay home until testing negative. Omicron infections tend to show up 3-4 days after exposure, and delta infections (which are still around in the US, not sure about Canada) around 4-5 days after.
posted by trig at 2:49 AM on January 1, 2022 [71 favorites]
My rudimentary understanding of viruses (from reading what's in the news) is that a virus doesn't want to kill its host, as it would then have nothing to live on, hence the mutation into allegedly less deadly variants. Reports suggest omicron is causing upper respiratory, rather than pulmonary, infections, but it's still too soon to consider it 'less serious' than other Covid variants. Maybe the next variant will be the one that will allow us to live with, rather than die from, the virus.
This is a survivor bias fallacy. The viruses that currently exist didn't kill their hosts because the ones that did resulted in both the host and the virus going extinct. No choice or volition on the part of the virus. Just the hard reality of a dead end produced via mutational randomness.
Virus do not want. They do not choose. They do not evolve in directions. They just randomly mutate.
Anybody who tells you that covid-19's evolution will go in a specific direction is incorrect.
posted by srboisvert at 2:52 AM on January 1, 2022 [115 favorites]
This is a survivor bias fallacy. The viruses that currently exist didn't kill their hosts because the ones that did resulted in both the host and the virus going extinct. No choice or volition on the part of the virus. Just the hard reality of a dead end produced via mutational randomness.
Virus do not want. They do not choose. They do not evolve in directions. They just randomly mutate.
Anybody who tells you that covid-19's evolution will go in a specific direction is incorrect.
posted by srboisvert at 2:52 AM on January 1, 2022 [115 favorites]
Thank you, srboisvert. The UK Govt line - taken up by mainstream media - is that we must learn to live with Covid because each new strain is milder than the last. This is the message they want to get across, but actual science will prove whether this stance has any basis in fact.
posted by essexjan at 4:38 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by essexjan at 4:38 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
In Australia we are putting everything on black. Omicron is hoped to be a mild flu.
For two years we were COVID free-ish. It was a pain, so people protested and demanded we get as sick as elsewhere.
A bit of change of leaders and just tiredness have resulted in omicron now running free. It’s boring news to the rest of the world, but we have our own explosion of cases. In a week, we’ll have our own health system buckling under a strain “nobody could have predicted”.
I’m hopeful deaths will be fewer because omicron seems less deadly. I’m resigned to overwhelmed hospital beds, because it is still a serious illness.
I’m angry that our politicians did so little to avoid hardship and sickness and bad times, because they saw little blow back for letting the population be fucked over abroad.
I hope my anger is half as contagious as omicron. I guess I hope to be a super spreader of discontent with middle ground, neo-capitalist government.
I’m donating money to CLIMATE-200 independents to try and tip the scales a bit.
posted by bystander at 4:43 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
For two years we were COVID free-ish. It was a pain, so people protested and demanded we get as sick as elsewhere.
A bit of change of leaders and just tiredness have resulted in omicron now running free. It’s boring news to the rest of the world, but we have our own explosion of cases. In a week, we’ll have our own health system buckling under a strain “nobody could have predicted”.
I’m hopeful deaths will be fewer because omicron seems less deadly. I’m resigned to overwhelmed hospital beds, because it is still a serious illness.
I’m angry that our politicians did so little to avoid hardship and sickness and bad times, because they saw little blow back for letting the population be fucked over abroad.
I hope my anger is half as contagious as omicron. I guess I hope to be a super spreader of discontent with middle ground, neo-capitalist government.
I’m donating money to CLIMATE-200 independents to try and tip the scales a bit.
posted by bystander at 4:43 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
but there is not even a fraction of the same increase in covid-caused ICU admissions.
Massachusetts, a state that took a relatively (to the rest of the US) strong approach to previous waves but less so this one, is seeing ICU capacity maxed out in a much worse way than anything previously. "Not even a fraction" is wrong - it IS a fraction, and even if it's a small one that means long-term we come out better than before in terms of immunity, that's still a damned lot of people RIGHT NOW who aren't getting the care they need.
posted by solotoro at 5:10 AM on January 1, 2022 [34 favorites]
Massachusetts, a state that took a relatively (to the rest of the US) strong approach to previous waves but less so this one, is seeing ICU capacity maxed out in a much worse way than anything previously. "Not even a fraction" is wrong - it IS a fraction, and even if it's a small one that means long-term we come out better than before in terms of immunity, that's still a damned lot of people RIGHT NOW who aren't getting the care they need.
posted by solotoro at 5:10 AM on January 1, 2022 [34 favorites]
I read, weeks ago, a quote from Professor Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection, at the University of Birmingham, "There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence."
Ever since reading this I've been twitching every time someone says Omicron is milder. And our hospitals are filling up so what difference does milder make if no one can access our already substandard medical care in the U.S.? The whole shrugginess about it is making me fainty on the daily.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [40 favorites]
Ever since reading this I've been twitching every time someone says Omicron is milder. And our hospitals are filling up so what difference does milder make if no one can access our already substandard medical care in the U.S.? The whole shrugginess about it is making me fainty on the daily.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [40 favorites]
The combination of higher transmissibility and lesser health effects of omicron compared to delta means an even wider gap between personal and societal impact, which makes things even more complicated to discuss in the public arena as well as here on MetaFilter.
posted by PhineasGage at 5:40 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 5:40 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
The combination of higher transmissibility and lesser short term health effects of omicron compared to delta means an even wider gap between personal and societal impact, which makes things even more complicated to discuss in the public arena as well as here on MetaFilter.
FTFY.
posted by lalochezia at 5:47 AM on January 1, 2022 [15 favorites]
People have been saying "It's just the flu" since day 1. It's not "just" anything and I'm really fucking tired of these lies.
People going around saying that no one cares if anyone else is sick is extremely painful to hear especially considering how in the US once you're too sick to work they take everything from you. If I were to become too sick to work there would be no social safety net for me and I know because what my husband gets for disability x 2 wouldn't keep us in our home. And I'm supposed to just accept that this is going to happen & hope for the best or else I'm "paranoid"? I don't think so, no.
posted by bleep at 5:54 AM on January 1, 2022 [104 favorites]
People going around saying that no one cares if anyone else is sick is extremely painful to hear especially considering how in the US once you're too sick to work they take everything from you. If I were to become too sick to work there would be no social safety net for me and I know because what my husband gets for disability x 2 wouldn't keep us in our home. And I'm supposed to just accept that this is going to happen & hope for the best or else I'm "paranoid"? I don't think so, no.
posted by bleep at 5:54 AM on January 1, 2022 [104 favorites]
anecdata, here in Portugal the number of positives is soaring (record daily levels this week) and majority omicron. though covid internments are low and stable. there is massive testing underway, home and at the pharmacy, all antigens unless you get a positive and then a PCR is required. but, in the way of unintended consequences, since formal testing (which you need to go to the movies, a restaurant, a hotel &c) involves much time standing in line, hospitals are complaining of an inrush of people without symptoms or even high-risk contacts going to the emergency room to ... be tested. there are many ways to fatally clog up a health system!
posted by chavenet at 5:54 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 5:54 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
The number of US hospitalizations is up from 52,000 a month ago to 78,000, which is a 50% increase. I’m not ready to start celebrating the end of COVID just yet.
posted by freecellwizard at 5:59 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 5:59 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
By the way Polio was "just the flu" too so I guess they were just a bunch of pussies for trying to wipe it out.
posted by bleep at 6:01 AM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by bleep at 6:01 AM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
here in Vancouver, our chief provincial health officer (not generally known for reckless optimism) just spoke of seeing the end of the pandemic ...
DBH is absolutely known for being recklessly optimistic during the "Going Down / Under Control" phases of XKCD-exponential-growth.JPG.
posted by EmGeeJay at 6:05 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
DBH is absolutely known for being recklessly optimistic during the "Going Down / Under Control" phases of XKCD-exponential-growth.JPG.
posted by EmGeeJay at 6:05 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
We've clearly shifted to "let 'er rip" as public health policy
For widely variable values of "we" and "decided."
For example, the Republican governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, got a lot of praise early in the pandemic for his rational science-based approach to public health.
Whereupon the Republican-dominated state legislature promptly passed a set of laws that basically stripped him of his power to issue public health mandates.
So now that Ohio is hitting record COVID cases just as all the kids are getting done with winter break and heading back to school, all he can do is ask local schools and school boards to consider encouraging masks . . .
posted by soundguy99 at 6:19 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
For widely variable values of "we" and "decided."
For example, the Republican governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, got a lot of praise early in the pandemic for his rational science-based approach to public health.
Whereupon the Republican-dominated state legislature promptly passed a set of laws that basically stripped him of his power to issue public health mandates.
So now that Ohio is hitting record COVID cases just as all the kids are getting done with winter break and heading back to school, all he can do is ask local schools and school boards to consider encouraging masks . . .
posted by soundguy99 at 6:19 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
anecdata
On the banned list for 2022, I'm afraid.
posted by thelonius at 6:21 AM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
On the banned list for 2022, I'm afraid.
posted by thelonius at 6:21 AM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
My cancer seems pretty determined to kill me even though it would also die.
is an elderly person's death hastened by a year worth a nine year old getting to have in-person school, or not?
I get that you're saying that these are questions we need to ask and not advocating (I hope) going back to "sacrifice the old people," but who are these mystery old people that we know only had a year to live? Those of us in the younger range of the elder category could easily have twenty or even thirty years left. Someone who is eighty could live another ten. Maybe we should phrase this as "Is a nine-year-old not having in-person school for a year worth more than her grandma living another thirty?" And you know, living grandparents can be very beneficial to young people. People are pretty bummed that Betty White didn't make it to fucking 100, and lots of young people have old people they love and care about even more than Betty White. My grandfather died when I was five, and I'm still sometimes sad about what I missed by not having him around. (He illegally fled Czarist Lithuanian in 1903 - how I would have loved to hear those stories. My most clear memory of him is that he gave me a brooch he found in the trash [he grew up in dire poverty and remained a trashpicker his whole life]. I still have it.).
And I wouldn't even say sacrifice of the old is never in order. I would give up my seat on a lifeboat for a child. I was really moved when elders in Japan volunteered to replace younger workers after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, but they were offering to save young people from death, not Zoom meetings. (I do get that online school is hard, and I wish we could provide better support for it, but it's not the same as radiation exposure.)
On another topic, I'm not really finding much on whether omicron is deadly to immunocompromised people. Maybe they don't know yet. We also exist and value our lives and mean something to people who know us.
posted by FencingGal at 6:23 AM on January 1, 2022 [119 favorites]
is an elderly person's death hastened by a year worth a nine year old getting to have in-person school, or not?
I get that you're saying that these are questions we need to ask and not advocating (I hope) going back to "sacrifice the old people," but who are these mystery old people that we know only had a year to live? Those of us in the younger range of the elder category could easily have twenty or even thirty years left. Someone who is eighty could live another ten. Maybe we should phrase this as "Is a nine-year-old not having in-person school for a year worth more than her grandma living another thirty?" And you know, living grandparents can be very beneficial to young people. People are pretty bummed that Betty White didn't make it to fucking 100, and lots of young people have old people they love and care about even more than Betty White. My grandfather died when I was five, and I'm still sometimes sad about what I missed by not having him around. (He illegally fled Czarist Lithuanian in 1903 - how I would have loved to hear those stories. My most clear memory of him is that he gave me a brooch he found in the trash [he grew up in dire poverty and remained a trashpicker his whole life]. I still have it.).
And I wouldn't even say sacrifice of the old is never in order. I would give up my seat on a lifeboat for a child. I was really moved when elders in Japan volunteered to replace younger workers after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, but they were offering to save young people from death, not Zoom meetings. (I do get that online school is hard, and I wish we could provide better support for it, but it's not the same as radiation exposure.)
On another topic, I'm not really finding much on whether omicron is deadly to immunocompromised people. Maybe they don't know yet. We also exist and value our lives and mean something to people who know us.
posted by FencingGal at 6:23 AM on January 1, 2022 [119 favorites]
I read medical professional forums. Not one myself, but have been interested to see what’s happening lately from the horse’s mouth. Have to say, it is horrifying. Hospitals are short-staffed, not just because of people being out sick, but because of burnout. Doctors and nurses have been dealing with this for 2 years now. Many of them are talking about their hospitals collapsing. Patients are also becoming more abusive because of longer wait times.
I had an emergency this past summer. Took an ambulance to the hospital and was left to wait in the ER waiting room for 8 hours. Had pancreatitis and liver inflammation and was in severe pain, due to a gallstone. I am otherwise healthy. You just never know when you’re going to need to be hospitalized. I can’t imagine what the wait times would be now.
So to all those saying Omicron is no big deal and we’re overreacting, maybe cast an eye to what’s happening in hospitals currently. It may be just a cold to you, but hopefully you don’t end up in a hospital for any other reason right now. I honestly don’t understand why this isn’t a bigger story right now. I believe the news should show footage of what’s happening in hospitals rather than dry statistics.
posted by jenh526 at 6:48 AM on January 1, 2022 [68 favorites]
I had an emergency this past summer. Took an ambulance to the hospital and was left to wait in the ER waiting room for 8 hours. Had pancreatitis and liver inflammation and was in severe pain, due to a gallstone. I am otherwise healthy. You just never know when you’re going to need to be hospitalized. I can’t imagine what the wait times would be now.
So to all those saying Omicron is no big deal and we’re overreacting, maybe cast an eye to what’s happening in hospitals currently. It may be just a cold to you, but hopefully you don’t end up in a hospital for any other reason right now. I honestly don’t understand why this isn’t a bigger story right now. I believe the news should show footage of what’s happening in hospitals rather than dry statistics.
posted by jenh526 at 6:48 AM on January 1, 2022 [68 favorites]
It may be just a cold to you, but hopefully you don’t end up in a hospital for any other reason right now. I honestly don’t understand why this isn’t a bigger story right now. I believe the news should show footage of what’s happening in hospitals rather than dry statistics.
This is what has worried me the most for some months now. Hospitals here have been "managing" (i.e., functioning more or less) but the consequence has been for people with other needs to be denied care, or have care delayed, in really horrible ways. (Cancelling "elective surgeries" sounds like they are cancelling someone's plastic surgery appointment, but it really means cancelling things that people critically need.) It's a problem that would, if not go away entirely, be much reduced if most of the unvaccinated jackasses would step up and get a shot instead of getting sick and occupying an ICU bed for a month before dying. (Yes, I'm angry about it, and at this point have absolutely zero compassion for people who could be vaccinated but choose not to.)
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that this moment in time will mark the shift towards the "living with it" stage of the pandemic, but the next weeks or even months will be rough.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:00 AM on January 1, 2022 [22 favorites]
This is what has worried me the most for some months now. Hospitals here have been "managing" (i.e., functioning more or less) but the consequence has been for people with other needs to be denied care, or have care delayed, in really horrible ways. (Cancelling "elective surgeries" sounds like they are cancelling someone's plastic surgery appointment, but it really means cancelling things that people critically need.) It's a problem that would, if not go away entirely, be much reduced if most of the unvaccinated jackasses would step up and get a shot instead of getting sick and occupying an ICU bed for a month before dying. (Yes, I'm angry about it, and at this point have absolutely zero compassion for people who could be vaccinated but choose not to.)
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that this moment in time will mark the shift towards the "living with it" stage of the pandemic, but the next weeks or even months will be rough.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:00 AM on January 1, 2022 [22 favorites]
this whole debate ultimately boils down to something no two people will ever agree on: what is the value of a human life?
It is weird that a lot of people who were quite vocal that “all lives matter” a couple of years ago seem to have decided now that “if you’re young and healthy, you have nothing to worry about.” So I guess some lives don’t?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:11 AM on January 1, 2022 [28 favorites]
It is weird that a lot of people who were quite vocal that “all lives matter” a couple of years ago seem to have decided now that “if you’re young and healthy, you have nothing to worry about.” So I guess some lives don’t?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:11 AM on January 1, 2022 [28 favorites]
"All lives matter" <> "No lives matter"
posted by bleep at 7:15 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by bleep at 7:15 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
So last night I started coming down with a mild cough and fever. I live in an apartment by myself, work from home, rarely go to stores and the only time I'm in contact with people is walking my dog three times a day.
I am just a tad concerned, because while I got the first two jabs, I haven't been able to get the booster yet.
I'm not SCARED scared yet, but I'm thinking about telling friends that they need to check up on me from time to time, because this is the type of building where someone can be dead in their apartment for months before they're found.
And I routinely sniff my own armpit to make sure my sense of smell is still intact.
Happy new year.
posted by Laura Palmer's Cold Dead Kiss at 7:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [34 favorites]
I am just a tad concerned, because while I got the first two jabs, I haven't been able to get the booster yet.
I'm not SCARED scared yet, but I'm thinking about telling friends that they need to check up on me from time to time, because this is the type of building where someone can be dead in their apartment for months before they're found.
And I routinely sniff my own armpit to make sure my sense of smell is still intact.
Happy new year.
posted by Laura Palmer's Cold Dead Kiss at 7:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [34 favorites]
there is overheated press on the explosion in case numbers--still after all this time negligently focused on case numbers alone, to get clicks
The press is reporting case numbers because it's one of the most important metrics to gauge our progress against the virus (if not the most important). To say they're doing it "to get clicks" is idiotic.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 7:19 AM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
The press is reporting case numbers because it's one of the most important metrics to gauge our progress against the virus (if not the most important). To say they're doing it "to get clicks" is idiotic.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 7:19 AM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
I can’t imagine what the wait times would be now.
That's if you're lucky enough to be admitted. My BIL in Michigan was told at the end of October that he needed a heart valve replaced. He's in his mid 70s and a curmudgeon so he inquired as to what if he didn't, and was told he'd likely have around six to eight months to live. So they scheduled him for the first week of December even as Michigan's hospitals were filling up fast. His daughter drove in from NY the day before he was scheduled for surgery (after which he was expected to be in ICU for 2-3 days) and that night he got texted that the ICUs were full so his surgery would need to be rescheduled for a couple weeks later. Third week of December repeat the exact same scenario with daughter taking off work to drive in again only to find out that was useless. Now he is told they'll try to schedule in mid-January when they're hoping the surge is receding. Each of these times my wife and I have also scheduled time off and pet sitters, etc. so we could be there to help during his recovery time (already knowing we'd not be allowed to even see him in the hospital where there was a not insignificant chance he might die). Overwhelmed hospitals get real real quick when you or a loved one needs one.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:27 AM on January 1, 2022 [57 favorites]
That's if you're lucky enough to be admitted. My BIL in Michigan was told at the end of October that he needed a heart valve replaced. He's in his mid 70s and a curmudgeon so he inquired as to what if he didn't, and was told he'd likely have around six to eight months to live. So they scheduled him for the first week of December even as Michigan's hospitals were filling up fast. His daughter drove in from NY the day before he was scheduled for surgery (after which he was expected to be in ICU for 2-3 days) and that night he got texted that the ICUs were full so his surgery would need to be rescheduled for a couple weeks later. Third week of December repeat the exact same scenario with daughter taking off work to drive in again only to find out that was useless. Now he is told they'll try to schedule in mid-January when they're hoping the surge is receding. Each of these times my wife and I have also scheduled time off and pet sitters, etc. so we could be there to help during his recovery time (already knowing we'd not be allowed to even see him in the hospital where there was a not insignificant chance he might die). Overwhelmed hospitals get real real quick when you or a loved one needs one.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:27 AM on January 1, 2022 [57 favorites]
what is the value of a human life? is an elderly person's death hastened by a year worth a nine year old getting to have in-person school, or not? is an immunocompromised person's fear of getting infected worth a bar owner's livelihood?
Covid has revealed how many people will casually confess to being eugenicists. A disabled person's life has more value than a business. This "important people aren't dying" belief that many people are comfortable expressing is revolting.
posted by Mavri at 7:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [117 favorites]
Covid has revealed how many people will casually confess to being eugenicists. A disabled person's life has more value than a business. This "important people aren't dying" belief that many people are comfortable expressing is revolting.
posted by Mavri at 7:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [117 favorites]
Here in Ireland we've hit the highest number of daily positives since it all started. Worse, the percentage of positive tests has tripled since October, implying that we're missing a lot of cases. PCR tests are now being rationed because we don't have enough to go round.
The government has floated the idea of a one-off national holiday to thank frontline staff, which has rightly been laughed out of court by exhausted hospital staff, who point out out that they haven't even been able to take the annual leave they have due to staffing levels.
The vaccine rollout has been pretty smooth after a slowish start - I've had shots in May, June, November, and am due another this month (I'm only 39, but me and my immune system don't get on).
posted by kersplunk at 7:31 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
The government has floated the idea of a one-off national holiday to thank frontline staff, which has rightly been laughed out of court by exhausted hospital staff, who point out out that they haven't even been able to take the annual leave they have due to staffing levels.
The vaccine rollout has been pretty smooth after a slowish start - I've had shots in May, June, November, and am due another this month (I'm only 39, but me and my immune system don't get on).
posted by kersplunk at 7:31 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
Overwhelmed hospitals get real real quick when you or a loved one needs one.
My step-father died on December 22, and I'm pretty sure covid-related shortages contributed to it. We were in a rural hospital waiting for a bed to open up in Dallas. While we were waiting, he needed a blood transfusion and CT for internal bleeding. They couldn't get a second IV in for hours and didn't have anyone in the building who could do a PICC line.
People who think it's OK for him to die so a bar can stay open can fuck off into the sun.
posted by Mavri at 7:34 AM on January 1, 2022 [129 favorites]
My step-father died on December 22, and I'm pretty sure covid-related shortages contributed to it. We were in a rural hospital waiting for a bed to open up in Dallas. While we were waiting, he needed a blood transfusion and CT for internal bleeding. They couldn't get a second IV in for hours and didn't have anyone in the building who could do a PICC line.
People who think it's OK for him to die so a bar can stay open can fuck off into the sun.
posted by Mavri at 7:34 AM on January 1, 2022 [129 favorites]
I made the mistake of reading this thread as a “break” from reading The Death of Grass. Yeesh. What is wrong with me?
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 7:36 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 7:36 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
If you can do urgent care instead of an ER, go that route. My spouse fractured her ankle this week and they were able to see her at the urgent care office right away. In fact, it was completely empty, since they'd run out of covid tests around noon.
posted by phooky at 7:37 AM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by phooky at 7:37 AM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
I'm a Marylander, and as Slackermagee put it, it feels apocalyptic.
Not just in terms of the data, but anecdotally.
The Governor got Covid, so did my County Executive.
A nearby EMS put out a Facebook plea that they were overwhelmed with Covid patients and routing ambulances to Pennsylvania, along with spreadsheets showing that all emergency rooms in the central part of the state are critically overloaded. They received a wave of abuse in return, many from posters who had profile pics professing their allegiance to first responders.
A woman in my town had a stroke, and languished in an ER waiting room for 15 hours.
And I'm hearing more sirens than I have at any point in the pandemic. Ambulances barrel down my street, all the time.
We tread so carefully through life. I monitor everything my daughter does, I try not to drive on the notorious madhouse freeways here, I fret that any of my health conditions will go kablooey at the worst of moments and there won't be a hospital bed for me, I feel an itchy moment of dread if my husband rushes down some stairs. What if he breaks himself, and there's no help on the way?
I'm not sure why there's even a discussion about balancing the merits of the very lives of the vulnerable, vs the social and educational opportunities of children.
I can assure anyone who asks that my daughter wants to be alive and healthy. She wants me to raise her, and she'll miss playdates and preschool to make it happen.
posted by champers at 7:40 AM on January 1, 2022 [45 favorites]
Not just in terms of the data, but anecdotally.
The Governor got Covid, so did my County Executive.
A nearby EMS put out a Facebook plea that they were overwhelmed with Covid patients and routing ambulances to Pennsylvania, along with spreadsheets showing that all emergency rooms in the central part of the state are critically overloaded. They received a wave of abuse in return, many from posters who had profile pics professing their allegiance to first responders.
A woman in my town had a stroke, and languished in an ER waiting room for 15 hours.
And I'm hearing more sirens than I have at any point in the pandemic. Ambulances barrel down my street, all the time.
We tread so carefully through life. I monitor everything my daughter does, I try not to drive on the notorious madhouse freeways here, I fret that any of my health conditions will go kablooey at the worst of moments and there won't be a hospital bed for me, I feel an itchy moment of dread if my husband rushes down some stairs. What if he breaks himself, and there's no help on the way?
I'm not sure why there's even a discussion about balancing the merits of the very lives of the vulnerable, vs the social and educational opportunities of children.
I can assure anyone who asks that my daughter wants to be alive and healthy. She wants me to raise her, and she'll miss playdates and preschool to make it happen.
posted by champers at 7:40 AM on January 1, 2022 [45 favorites]
Cancelling "elective surgeries" sounds like they are cancelling someone's plastic surgery appointment, but it really means cancelling things that people critically need.
My mom's friend was told she needed heart surgery. At first, it was going to be the less invasive kind, where they go in your side, but then they ran more tests and ended up scheduling her for open heart surgery instead. Then the afternoon before the surgery, the hospital called and and told her the procedure was indefinitely canceled because the hospital had no open recovery beds - everything was full of COVID patients. This was around Thanksgiving this year, before the Omicron surge.
She still hasn't had her surgery. At this point, a lot of my concerns revolve around someone I care about having a non-COVID related health crisis, and dying or suffering immensely because the health care system is obliterated at this point.
posted by See you tomorrow, saguaro at 7:43 AM on January 1, 2022 [47 favorites]
My mom's friend was told she needed heart surgery. At first, it was going to be the less invasive kind, where they go in your side, but then they ran more tests and ended up scheduling her for open heart surgery instead. Then the afternoon before the surgery, the hospital called and and told her the procedure was indefinitely canceled because the hospital had no open recovery beds - everything was full of COVID patients. This was around Thanksgiving this year, before the Omicron surge.
She still hasn't had her surgery. At this point, a lot of my concerns revolve around someone I care about having a non-COVID related health crisis, and dying or suffering immensely because the health care system is obliterated at this point.
posted by See you tomorrow, saguaro at 7:43 AM on January 1, 2022 [47 favorites]
Oh, and I forgot to mention that here in Ohio we're hot on the heels of our Michigan brethren, having broken our single-day record of cases for the fourth time in 7 days on Thursday with @ 20,320 - and we just set a new record for hospitalizations on Thursday with 5,356 and now lead the nation in COVID hospitalizations per capita.
All of which spurred the Governor to order another 1,250 Nat Guard troops - on top of the 2,500 he ordered out last week - to try to help overwhelmed hospitals whose staff are literally beyond exhaustion and getting sicker (physically and mentally) by the day.
Good luck finding an optimist in the midst of that mess.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 8:13 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
All of which spurred the Governor to order another 1,250 Nat Guard troops - on top of the 2,500 he ordered out last week - to try to help overwhelmed hospitals whose staff are literally beyond exhaustion and getting sicker (physically and mentally) by the day.
Good luck finding an optimist in the midst of that mess.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 8:13 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Australian states where omicron is dominant are seeing a lot fewer hospitalisations than those where Delta is pervasive, at least so far.
Yeah, nah.
Victoria: 28,044 active cases, 428 in hospital, 54 in ICU.
NSW: 109,197 active cases, 901 in hospital, 79 in ICU.
Omicron arrived in NSW a couple of weeks earlier than it did in Victoria, and NSW's active case count was much lower than Victoria's when it did. I'm in Victoria. I've got two doses of Astra Zeneca spaced 13 weeks apart on board, and a Moderna booster booked for January 5th which was as early as Government guidelines allowed me to get one, and I'm staying in my house as much as possible until then.
posted by flabdablet at 8:16 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
Yeah, nah.
Victoria: 28,044 active cases, 428 in hospital, 54 in ICU.
NSW: 109,197 active cases, 901 in hospital, 79 in ICU.
Omicron arrived in NSW a couple of weeks earlier than it did in Victoria, and NSW's active case count was much lower than Victoria's when it did. I'm in Victoria. I've got two doses of Astra Zeneca spaced 13 weeks apart on board, and a Moderna booster booked for January 5th which was as early as Government guidelines allowed me to get one, and I'm staying in my house as much as possible until then.
posted by flabdablet at 8:16 AM on January 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
Studies showing that two doses of the J&J vaccine is likely effective against Omicron.
From Omicron symptoms: What we know about illness caused by the new variant: "Unlike in previous variants, the loss of taste and smell seems to be uncommon."
posted by ShooBoo at 8:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
From Omicron symptoms: What we know about illness caused by the new variant: "Unlike in previous variants, the loss of taste and smell seems to be uncommon."
posted by ShooBoo at 8:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
It is pretty discouraging how many people, including here on Metafilter where we’ve had lots of posts and discussion that were more educational, are still thinking of the pandemic in purely individual terms rather than systemic terms. I blame educational systems not anyone individually for lack of math skills to understand that a bit less serious but more contagious can still lead to more overall hospitalizations and deaths (even though the first fraction/percentage might be smaller than for previous COVID variants, you’re multiplying it by a much higher number, so the product can still be higher overall, which is what we’re starting to see in hospital admissions), but that is also discouraging, and I suspect there may also be some motivated reasoning in ignoring experts who have been raising that caution (or pointing out that that is exactly what has occurred in some places).
Also, the part where there’s not a broader realization at this point in the pandemic of how ableist even “it’s just the flu” is. That wasn’t anything I had thought about at all before the pandemic, so definitely not trying to cast aspersions on anyone in the same boat. But I am having difficulty imagining being low enough information as to not understand that now. Which leads to the conclusion that people just don’t care when it’s not affecting them; which is pretty consistent with a lot of human behaviour I’ve observed. But we at least seemed to be doing better here on Metafilter up until a month or two ago.
posted by eviemath at 8:22 AM on January 1, 2022 [49 favorites]
Also, the part where there’s not a broader realization at this point in the pandemic of how ableist even “it’s just the flu” is. That wasn’t anything I had thought about at all before the pandemic, so definitely not trying to cast aspersions on anyone in the same boat. But I am having difficulty imagining being low enough information as to not understand that now. Which leads to the conclusion that people just don’t care when it’s not affecting them; which is pretty consistent with a lot of human behaviour I’ve observed. But we at least seemed to be doing better here on Metafilter up until a month or two ago.
posted by eviemath at 8:22 AM on January 1, 2022 [49 favorites]
This is what I don't get. Being responsible is a hell of a political winner. McGowan had an election back in March and won 70% of the 2PP vote on the back of keeping COVID out of Western Australia by isolating it. The opposition parties effectively don't exist anymore, the opposition leader even lost his seat. WA has been pretty much normal through this entire time minus a few short sharp lockdowns and the voters will clearly reward it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:23 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:23 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
On a more personal note, we lost my dad's younger brother to Covid two weeks before Christmas. He was 67. He was going blind so he'd been moved into a care home, where he caught the virus within a couple of weeks. My dad told me he didn't have the motivation to do anything for Christmas, so me and my sister organised the tree, the presents, the decorations, the food. I even forged his handwriting on Christmas cards he'd normally send.
During the few days I was home I don't think he smiled once, and he spent most of the time hiding from guests or going for walks on his own. The contrast with the death of his own father (who died peacefully aged 87 after an incredibly rich life and got the send-off he deserved, with nearly a thousand mourners at the funeral, and a proper cathartic Irish wake that went on round the clock for nearly three days) couldn't have been greater.
As well as the effects of long Covid, the pressure on the healthcare system (it's not like we can suddenly declare victory on Covid and everyone waiting on 'elective' or cancelled procedures gets seen the next day), or the danger of new strains emerging, the effects on everyone's mental health are going to be with us for a long time.
posted by kersplunk at 8:25 AM on January 1, 2022 [36 favorites]
During the few days I was home I don't think he smiled once, and he spent most of the time hiding from guests or going for walks on his own. The contrast with the death of his own father (who died peacefully aged 87 after an incredibly rich life and got the send-off he deserved, with nearly a thousand mourners at the funeral, and a proper cathartic Irish wake that went on round the clock for nearly three days) couldn't have been greater.
As well as the effects of long Covid, the pressure on the healthcare system (it's not like we can suddenly declare victory on Covid and everyone waiting on 'elective' or cancelled procedures gets seen the next day), or the danger of new strains emerging, the effects on everyone's mental health are going to be with us for a long time.
posted by kersplunk at 8:25 AM on January 1, 2022 [36 favorites]
People who have anything go clonky with their health are definitely suffering, thanks to hospital capacity issues.
A family member's back surgery was postponed by six months, thanks to the overflow of the unvaccinated.
And it's not like this is a new problem.
Even a few years ago, pre-Covid, my "elective surgery" to fix a cerebral aneurysm was cancelled and rescheduled several times due to a lack of ICU bed availability. (I had to be monitored overnight for possible complications.)
I cannot imagine how many people are indefinitely wandering about with their ticking brain-bombs.
This isn't just about Covid. It's a system.
posted by champers at 8:27 AM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
A family member's back surgery was postponed by six months, thanks to the overflow of the unvaccinated.
And it's not like this is a new problem.
Even a few years ago, pre-Covid, my "elective surgery" to fix a cerebral aneurysm was cancelled and rescheduled several times due to a lack of ICU bed availability. (I had to be monitored overnight for possible complications.)
I cannot imagine how many people are indefinitely wandering about with their ticking brain-bombs.
This isn't just about Covid. It's a system.
posted by champers at 8:27 AM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
The data from Spain (see graph) appears to show that the percentage of people who have to be hospitalized is far lower than with previous variants. The bad news is that it's far more transmissible, and so the total number of people hospitalized is nearly as high as the previous wave. Also, the vaccine appears to be keeping the death rate down, but it's a little too soon to say for sure, since that number lags 4-6 weeks.
.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 8:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 8:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
McGowan had an election back in March and won 70% of the 2PP vote on the back of keeping COVID out of Western Australia by isolating it.
McGowan does appear to be the only Australian political leader who actually gets exponential growth and decay.
That said, he's a Labor premier so the Murdoch Death Star has always been reflexively gunning for him anyway; he really had nothing to lose by completely giving the roo fingers to the Sky News winged monkeys. Andrews in Victoria is Labor as well, but it's simply not feasible to defend Victoria against cross-border contamination from the Coalition-run, Morrison-addled NSW because the border is so much more populous, and his majority isn't anywhere near as solid as McGowan's.
posted by flabdablet at 8:33 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
McGowan does appear to be the only Australian political leader who actually gets exponential growth and decay.
That said, he's a Labor premier so the Murdoch Death Star has always been reflexively gunning for him anyway; he really had nothing to lose by completely giving the roo fingers to the Sky News winged monkeys. Andrews in Victoria is Labor as well, but it's simply not feasible to defend Victoria against cross-border contamination from the Coalition-run, Morrison-addled NSW because the border is so much more populous, and his majority isn't anywhere near as solid as McGowan's.
posted by flabdablet at 8:33 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'm 100% out of spoons at the moment. I work in an health care environment, I have daily exposure to Covid and am now in the middle of a goddamn asthma exacerbation (I've pcr tested negative twice this week) and of course TODAY I figure out I probably need injectable steroids, problem is I don't think I'm going to be able to get them in a clinic bc the damn rate of covid is so high, nobody is going to believe me without ANOTHER pcr test, and honestly i don't want to be in any healthcare setting. My primary doc is closed until Tuesday. I'm exhausted and terrified I'm going to crash. I know the state of the hospital's around here and I do not want to be anywhere near an ER outside of my regularly defined duties with all my PPE. And I'm actually off this weekend after I begged my boss.
I can even get up the energy to call around to urgent cares that are open today and ask I'm just so done with it all.
Hopefully I'll be just fine. I'm pretty well set up at home only thing I don't have is oxygen and injectable steroids. But the anxiety on top of the difficulty breathing is just icing on this pandemic cake in a new year celebration. Which is me mostly sitting at home being glad I'm not at work today.
posted by AlexiaSky at 8:56 AM on January 1, 2022 [39 favorites]
I can even get up the energy to call around to urgent cares that are open today and ask I'm just so done with it all.
Hopefully I'll be just fine. I'm pretty well set up at home only thing I don't have is oxygen and injectable steroids. But the anxiety on top of the difficulty breathing is just icing on this pandemic cake in a new year celebration. Which is me mostly sitting at home being glad I'm not at work today.
posted by AlexiaSky at 8:56 AM on January 1, 2022 [39 favorites]
On a good news note, I guess, a friend's dad needs his gall bladder out and while they were waiting for a bed/transfer last night, they got one and he presumably is in surgery now. So not as hideous in NorCal, I guess, even if they live in a rogue county that would not mask up without the state forcing them to.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:58 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:58 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
> And I routinely sniff my own armpit to make sure my sense of smell is still intact.
You probably won't experience that. This is worth skimming:
Today Show, Dec 28:
You probably won't experience that. This is worth skimming:
Today Show, Dec 28:
Here's what to look out for:posted by sebastienbailard at 9:09 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
Common cold symptoms
With a cold, symptoms tend to build up over a few days, Torres said:
Runny or stuffy nose.
Sore throat.
Cough.
Congestion.
Common flu symptoms
Unlike with the common cold or COVID-19, flu symptoms tend to come on suddenly and can feel severe. “The flu hits you right away,” Torres explained. “If you’ve ever had the flu, you know you get to a point where you can’t get out of bed.”
Here is what to look out for:
Fever.
Cough.
Sore throat.
Runny or stuffy nose.
Body aches.
Headaches.
General COVID-19 symptoms
"With the previous COVID variants, including delta, the main sign was that lots of taste or smell," Torres said. In addition to that telltale sign, people experienced other cold- and flu-like symptoms.
Headache.
Sore throat.
Runny nose.
Fever.
Body aches.
Loss of taste and smell.
Omicron COVID-19 symptoms
So far, the signs of omicron tend to be similar to previous COVID-19 strains and they might include mild cold-like symptoms. But there are some slight differences emerging.
People aren’t reporting a loss of taste or smell as much with omicron as they were with previous variants, Torres said. “But people are reporting night sweats, which is a very strange symptom that they say they’re having.”
Cough.
Fatigue.
Runny nose and congestion.
Night sweats.
Less likely to have a loss of taste or smell.
With the less-deadly-per-infected person Omicron, we need to remind people that having huge numbers of people out sick (even moderately) is its own problem. Canceled flights, closed subway lines, and sick health care workers all have a big impact on the normal functioning of society.
posted by freecellwizard at 9:09 AM on January 1, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 9:09 AM on January 1, 2022 [20 favorites]
Eggzackly. Good luck "opening up" an economy when a substantial percentage is too sick to participate.
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
I saw an interesting and counterintuitive thing the other day at Walmart:
Given the increased case counts in my area (like most areas), I would have expected to see more masks than usual. However, I saw fewer. What was going on?
Somebody pointed out to me that the change was likely a change in the entire population going out to the stores, not a modification of behavior in the same population.
In other words, people who were more likely to mask before, were more likely to stop going out entirely. People who were less likely to mask before, were more likely to continue going out (and not masking).
Therefore, the increased publicity for omicron and increased case counts might actually have led to a smaller fraction of the people out at the stores wearing masks.
I'm not sure this is the exact and true explanation, but it seemed like an interesting and plausible explanation.
posted by theorique at 9:38 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
Given the increased case counts in my area (like most areas), I would have expected to see more masks than usual. However, I saw fewer. What was going on?
Somebody pointed out to me that the change was likely a change in the entire population going out to the stores, not a modification of behavior in the same population.
In other words, people who were more likely to mask before, were more likely to stop going out entirely. People who were less likely to mask before, were more likely to continue going out (and not masking).
Therefore, the increased publicity for omicron and increased case counts might actually have led to a smaller fraction of the people out at the stores wearing masks.
I'm not sure this is the exact and true explanation, but it seemed like an interesting and plausible explanation.
posted by theorique at 9:38 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
Even if Omicron is "mild," so much of our everyday life relies on everyday people doing everyday things for each other.
Handling one another's paperwork, repairing things, delivering things, cooking things, planning things, servicing our cars, advising each other, transporting each other, giving medical care, growing each other's food, stocking shelves and minding children. On and on.
Sometimes paid, sometimes not.
Illness on this scale affects us all.
posted by champers at 9:41 AM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
Handling one another's paperwork, repairing things, delivering things, cooking things, planning things, servicing our cars, advising each other, transporting each other, giving medical care, growing each other's food, stocking shelves and minding children. On and on.
Sometimes paid, sometimes not.
Illness on this scale affects us all.
posted by champers at 9:41 AM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
“Hey, I was exposed to Omicron the other day, you might want to try being smart."
I really hope I’m misreading this anecdote.
If not, may I suggest that if you know you’ve had a recent exposure, you should be staying home. It seems like a double-standard to go shopping and then shame other shoppers for failing to protect themselves from you.
posted by armeowda at 9:44 AM on January 1, 2022 [36 favorites]
I really hope I’m misreading this anecdote.
If not, may I suggest that if you know you’ve had a recent exposure, you should be staying home. It seems like a double-standard to go shopping and then shame other shoppers for failing to protect themselves from you.
posted by armeowda at 9:44 AM on January 1, 2022 [36 favorites]
Covid has revealed how many people will casually confess to being eugenicists.
On one hand, I guess there's a time when an emergency is sufficiently dire that one really must consider a eugenic position.
On the other, I'm reminded of something that happened on 9/11 inside one of the burning buildings, way the hell up, maybe eighty floors. A group of co-workers elected to not abandon a wheelchair bound colleague, but rather carried him down to street level. They all survived.
posted by philip-random at 9:46 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
On one hand, I guess there's a time when an emergency is sufficiently dire that one really must consider a eugenic position.
On the other, I'm reminded of something that happened on 9/11 inside one of the burning buildings, way the hell up, maybe eighty floors. A group of co-workers elected to not abandon a wheelchair bound colleague, but rather carried him down to street level. They all survived.
posted by philip-random at 9:46 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
Here is a random take from a social worker in the midst of all this, and less of my personal rant above
Resources were not prepared this time around from an institutional perspective. There are a lot of reasons to help people isolate safety and there are far more people than one thinks about living in congregate settings when you start thinking about nursing homes, homeless shelters, substance abuse treatment facilities, group homes and so forth all with different policies on what to do if someone tests positive/ is showing symptoms. Some isolate in place (nursing homes do this though it limits the ability for new intakes in general) some kick them out. Non hospital Isolation spaces are full here as of the last shift I worked.
There is a surprising amount of effort that goes into screening/interviewing for these isolation spaces if a space opens and then they need transport but the ambulances are backed up. The hospital I work in is damn close to straight up full. The ER is definitely overcrowded and we don't have enough space.
I end up doing a lot of advocating where I can, but there is only so much that can be done, only so much space. I don't have answers. The resources aren't there. I can't provide transport. I can't provide shelter.
It is incredibly frustrating.
posted by AlexiaSky at 9:48 AM on January 1, 2022 [16 favorites]
Resources were not prepared this time around from an institutional perspective. There are a lot of reasons to help people isolate safety and there are far more people than one thinks about living in congregate settings when you start thinking about nursing homes, homeless shelters, substance abuse treatment facilities, group homes and so forth all with different policies on what to do if someone tests positive/ is showing symptoms. Some isolate in place (nursing homes do this though it limits the ability for new intakes in general) some kick them out. Non hospital Isolation spaces are full here as of the last shift I worked.
There is a surprising amount of effort that goes into screening/interviewing for these isolation spaces if a space opens and then they need transport but the ambulances are backed up. The hospital I work in is damn close to straight up full. The ER is definitely overcrowded and we don't have enough space.
I end up doing a lot of advocating where I can, but there is only so much that can be done, only so much space. I don't have answers. The resources aren't there. I can't provide transport. I can't provide shelter.
It is incredibly frustrating.
posted by AlexiaSky at 9:48 AM on January 1, 2022 [16 favorites]
I took rhizome's anecdote to mean that they were lying about exposure to (successfully!) convince someone who was being cavalier about guidelines to back the fuck off, rather than wantonly endangering craft store patrons.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 9:52 AM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by Spathe Cadet at 9:52 AM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
Thanks; I was entertaining that possibility. (It sounds like the success was temporary, though.)
I have admittedly considered a similar “white lie” when someone was creeping up too close in a checkout queue. In the Before Times, I might have done it, but now it seems like a way of pressuring other people to do the right thing by pretending I’m doing a different wrong thing.
Still, I guess I couldn’t blame someone else for using that strategy at this point. Especially in a society where appeals to caring about other people have been as fruitless as they have in the States.
posted by armeowda at 10:04 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
I have admittedly considered a similar “white lie” when someone was creeping up too close in a checkout queue. In the Before Times, I might have done it, but now it seems like a way of pressuring other people to do the right thing by pretending I’m doing a different wrong thing.
Still, I guess I couldn’t blame someone else for using that strategy at this point. Especially in a society where appeals to caring about other people have been as fruitless as they have in the States.
posted by armeowda at 10:04 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The "deaths vs. in-person learning" argument is a failure of action. And that failure is understandable to some degree, because it was hard to predict in spring 2020 (not that some people didn't) how things were going to go.
But here in Ontario anyway, we have access to some of the best tech people, designers, film editors, communicators -- had we mobilized a war effort I think there would have been a possibility of putting together a much stronger online educational experience. We could have funded work that could have made money later, kept people employed, and made magic. Instead we gave teachers like one presentation on Google Classroom (grrrr) and set them loose.
We could also have utilized space differently and flipped the school year for warmer weather - all kinds of things.
We didn't.
And that goes for isolation housing, all kinds of things. We haven't had a failure solely of priorities but of imagination. And what I've learned is that even good political leadership -- something we don't have here in Ontario, which has given up this week and won't be testing or tracing or tracking cases, including a directive to schools and daycares not to report -- fails when it comes to imagination. So, okay. I'm not quite sure how to integrate this yet but I do believe a lot of this comes down to thinking how to do things, rather than thinking how not to.
Meanwhile my poorly resourced tiny business figured some things out. Of course not to the professionalism or scale that a larger effort created. But we just didn't admit failure and that went a long way.
posted by warriorqueen at 10:07 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
But here in Ontario anyway, we have access to some of the best tech people, designers, film editors, communicators -- had we mobilized a war effort I think there would have been a possibility of putting together a much stronger online educational experience. We could have funded work that could have made money later, kept people employed, and made magic. Instead we gave teachers like one presentation on Google Classroom (grrrr) and set them loose.
We could also have utilized space differently and flipped the school year for warmer weather - all kinds of things.
We didn't.
And that goes for isolation housing, all kinds of things. We haven't had a failure solely of priorities but of imagination. And what I've learned is that even good political leadership -- something we don't have here in Ontario, which has given up this week and won't be testing or tracing or tracking cases, including a directive to schools and daycares not to report -- fails when it comes to imagination. So, okay. I'm not quite sure how to integrate this yet but I do believe a lot of this comes down to thinking how to do things, rather than thinking how not to.
Meanwhile my poorly resourced tiny business figured some things out. Of course not to the professionalism or scale that a larger effort created. But we just didn't admit failure and that went a long way.
posted by warriorqueen at 10:07 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
Chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine Dr. Bob Wachter explains the key unknown, now that we have learned more about omicron: how well and for how long will an omnicron infection protect one from future infections.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:09 AM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 10:09 AM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Preprint of "The SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, shows rapid replication in human primary nasal epithelial cultures and efficiently uses the endosomal route of entry." by Peacock, et al.
Looks like Omicron might be here to stay:
And it looks like they figured out why it spreads easier. It infects more types of cells in our upper respiratory system:
Looks like Omicron might be here to stay:
Omicron Spike mediates enhanced entry into cells expressing several different animal ACE2s, including various domestic avian species, horseshoe bats and mice suggesting it has an increased propensity for reverse zoonosis and is more likely than previous variants to establish an animal reservoir of SARS-CoV-2.So we're probably going to get more animal reservoirs and at that point it's here to stay.
And it looks like they figured out why it spreads easier. It infects more types of cells in our upper respiratory system:
Furthermore, Omicron is capable of efficiently entering cells in a TMPRSS2-independent manner, via the endosomal route. We posit this enables Omicron to infect a greater number of cells in the respiratory epithelium, allowing it to be more infectious at lower exposure doses, and resulting in enhanced intrinsic transmissibility.posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:11 AM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
Also, the part where there’s not a broader realization at this point in the pandemic of how ableist even “it’s just the flu” is.
I just want to emphasize this point. I'm immunocompromised, and I was hospitalized with the flu for five days in January of 2019. It was fucking terrifying.
posted by FencingGal at 10:21 AM on January 1, 2022 [46 favorites]
I just want to emphasize this point. I'm immunocompromised, and I was hospitalized with the flu for five days in January of 2019. It was fucking terrifying.
posted by FencingGal at 10:21 AM on January 1, 2022 [46 favorites]
On one hand, I guess there's a time when an emergency is sufficiently dire that one really must consider a eugenic position.
On the other, I'm reminded of something that happened on 9/11 inside one of the burning buildings, way the hell up, maybe eighty floors. A group of co-workers elected to not abandon a wheelchair bound colleague, but rather carried him down to street level. They all survived.
#1, please remember that there are several mefites and their loved ones who are severely at risk and we are reading this very thread, so a casual discussion of eugenics is so breathtakingly inappropriate that I am shocked that we even need to remind people of this.
#2, that 9/11 story is inspiring, but it's not even remotely the same. We're on Year 2 of this, and 9/11 was one day when everyone involved was united in their mission. On that day, good people in an extraordinary situation were able to accomplish an amazing, heroic thing for a fellow human. But two years of mucking through covid precautions, are people willing even to forego a new year's eve party to keep their neighbor out of the hospital?
posted by mochapickle at 10:33 AM on January 1, 2022 [47 favorites]
On the other, I'm reminded of something that happened on 9/11 inside one of the burning buildings, way the hell up, maybe eighty floors. A group of co-workers elected to not abandon a wheelchair bound colleague, but rather carried him down to street level. They all survived.
#1, please remember that there are several mefites and their loved ones who are severely at risk and we are reading this very thread, so a casual discussion of eugenics is so breathtakingly inappropriate that I am shocked that we even need to remind people of this.
#2, that 9/11 story is inspiring, but it's not even remotely the same. We're on Year 2 of this, and 9/11 was one day when everyone involved was united in their mission. On that day, good people in an extraordinary situation were able to accomplish an amazing, heroic thing for a fellow human. But two years of mucking through covid precautions, are people willing even to forego a new year's eve party to keep their neighbor out of the hospital?
posted by mochapickle at 10:33 AM on January 1, 2022 [47 favorites]
are people willing even to forego a new year's eve party to keep their neighbor out of the hospital?
Part of the challenge is that it's not easy to visualize the exponential growth of social contact networks. Yes, of course the 20 dear friends and family I invite for the NYE party are responsible people - they won't turn up to the party if they have symptoms, and they won't visit 95-year-old great aunt Effie at the nursing home three days later if they start showing a fever,
Unfortunately, the number of second and third and fourth hand connections grows very, very rapidly. Not everybody is as responsible as you and your friends.
posted by theorique at 10:42 AM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Part of the challenge is that it's not easy to visualize the exponential growth of social contact networks. Yes, of course the 20 dear friends and family I invite for the NYE party are responsible people - they won't turn up to the party if they have symptoms, and they won't visit 95-year-old great aunt Effie at the nursing home three days later if they start showing a fever,
Unfortunately, the number of second and third and fourth hand connections grows very, very rapidly. Not everybody is as responsible as you and your friends.
posted by theorique at 10:42 AM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Overwhelmed hospitals get real real quick when you or a loved one needs one.
I took a hard fall on Thursday and probably cracked some ribs. I wanted to go to an immediate care walk-in clinic here in Chicago to re-up an old inhaler prescription because i really didn't want any asthma risk with a rib injury in a respiratory pandemic. So I checked for appointments. Nope. They are taking nothing but covid cases now. It has already begun.
The other thing that bothers me about the "it's milder" claim is that last year 2 weeks before the peak of the Delta case wave the 30 day Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was about .006% which is what the current 30 day Case Fatality Rate is. The Delta wave CFR did not stay low. It rose to about .019%
posted by srboisvert at 10:50 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
I took a hard fall on Thursday and probably cracked some ribs. I wanted to go to an immediate care walk-in clinic here in Chicago to re-up an old inhaler prescription because i really didn't want any asthma risk with a rib injury in a respiratory pandemic. So I checked for appointments. Nope. They are taking nothing but covid cases now. It has already begun.
The other thing that bothers me about the "it's milder" claim is that last year 2 weeks before the peak of the Delta case wave the 30 day Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was about .006% which is what the current 30 day Case Fatality Rate is. The Delta wave CFR did not stay low. It rose to about .019%
posted by srboisvert at 10:50 AM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
The "it's milder" claim is merely a statement of fact, along with "it's much more transmissible." The socio-medical implications are based on these underlying realities. No one here at MetaFilter that I have seen is commenting that this isn't awful, or that the Right isn't behaving abominably, or that there aren't many people beyond the elderly who are especially at risk. But among the many challenges for those public officials who are in the reality-based community are: learning what the facts are, calculating those changing implications, deciding what guidance to give to those who are willing to listen, and figuring out if there is anything at all that can be done in the face of so much stupid.
posted by PhineasGage at 11:01 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 11:01 AM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
COVID pulled the football away from me twice already. I refuse to engage in any optimism on this "beginning of the end" stuff until the numbers go way way down and stay way way down.
posted by tzikeh at 11:05 AM on January 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by tzikeh at 11:05 AM on January 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
with the current variants you can get infected within seconds, not 15-30 minutes;
Wait, seriously? Fuck. I was aware of the current thinking on masks, I use a kn95 from a non-Amazon reputable source, I'm trying to avoid being out in public as much as possible. But at this point, I just feel completely defeated.
And yes, I'm so damn tired of hearing this "it's just a flu" or "omicron's more mild so this isn't such a big deal" etc etc.
I'm 34, so I guess maybe I wouldn't be so scared if I were perfectly healthy. But I have several health conditions which have left me too disabled to work full time which sort of ambushed me over the past 2.5 years. And I'm doing everything I can to desperately try to get back to the point where I can function a closer to normal, though I'll never get back to my old self.
But you know what could easily obliterate all of those efforts? Getting fucking COVID. I'm less concerned about the acute symptoms. It's Long COVID that scares me. I already have several conditions that have been linked to long COVID (POTS, maybe CFS, MCAS). Guess what? They suck. A lot. I also have severe asthma. The combination of messed up lungs and a screwed up circulatory system is super not fun.
And I also don't want to be the reason that anyone else gets it.
posted by litera scripta manet at 11:07 AM on January 1, 2022 [31 favorites]
Wait, seriously? Fuck. I was aware of the current thinking on masks, I use a kn95 from a non-Amazon reputable source, I'm trying to avoid being out in public as much as possible. But at this point, I just feel completely defeated.
And yes, I'm so damn tired of hearing this "it's just a flu" or "omicron's more mild so this isn't such a big deal" etc etc.
I'm 34, so I guess maybe I wouldn't be so scared if I were perfectly healthy. But I have several health conditions which have left me too disabled to work full time which sort of ambushed me over the past 2.5 years. And I'm doing everything I can to desperately try to get back to the point where I can function a closer to normal, though I'll never get back to my old self.
But you know what could easily obliterate all of those efforts? Getting fucking COVID. I'm less concerned about the acute symptoms. It's Long COVID that scares me. I already have several conditions that have been linked to long COVID (POTS, maybe CFS, MCAS). Guess what? They suck. A lot. I also have severe asthma. The combination of messed up lungs and a screwed up circulatory system is super not fun.
And I also don't want to be the reason that anyone else gets it.
posted by litera scripta manet at 11:07 AM on January 1, 2022 [31 favorites]
A group of co-workers elected to not abandon a wheelchair bound colleague, but rather carried him down to street level. They all survived.
I don’t think you hear the stories from people who died usually.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 11:10 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
I don’t think you hear the stories from people who died usually.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 11:10 AM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
Wait, seriously? Fuck. I was aware of the current thinking on masks, I use a kn95 from a non-Amazon reputable source, I'm trying to avoid being out in public as much as possible. But at this point, I just feel completely defeated.
It's not a binary thing and a worst case scenario. If you're both unvaccinated and not wearing masks and the infected person is shedding like crazy, yeah, it's probably possible.
Remember that the virus not only has to reach your cells (and your body has mucus and such as a protective layer before the virus can get to the cells) but survive long enough to get a base where it can replicate from in order to stage a fight. If your first line innate immune system clears the virus before it can establish that foothold then you won't get infected. Only if that fails will the adaptive immune system, hopefully primed by a vaccination, come into play.
Everything about infection is a series of dice rolls, not "if x happens then y will result".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
It's not a binary thing and a worst case scenario. If you're both unvaccinated and not wearing masks and the infected person is shedding like crazy, yeah, it's probably possible.
Remember that the virus not only has to reach your cells (and your body has mucus and such as a protective layer before the virus can get to the cells) but survive long enough to get a base where it can replicate from in order to stage a fight. If your first line innate immune system clears the virus before it can establish that foothold then you won't get infected. Only if that fails will the adaptive immune system, hopefully primed by a vaccination, come into play.
Everything about infection is a series of dice rolls, not "if x happens then y will result".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:14 AM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
CheeseDigestsAll: The data from Spain (see graph) appears to show that the percentage of people who have to be hospitalized is far lower than with previous variants.
Please note that here in Spain the over 60s have vaccination rates of nearly 100% with booster, and we're vaccinating children over 5 and giving boosters as fast as we can, beginning with the oldest and immunocompromised. I think I'll be able to book a date for my booster shot on the second half of January (in my region they're down to 51 and older, I'm 44), and all my youngest relatives have at least one vaccine shot. We're going in order by most vulnerable, and the situation is different to countries where they didn't prioritise by age group so there's a bigger % of people in vulnerable age groups who haven't vaccinated.
posted by sukeban at 11:15 AM on January 1, 2022 [15 favorites]
Please note that here in Spain the over 60s have vaccination rates of nearly 100% with booster, and we're vaccinating children over 5 and giving boosters as fast as we can, beginning with the oldest and immunocompromised. I think I'll be able to book a date for my booster shot on the second half of January (in my region they're down to 51 and older, I'm 44), and all my youngest relatives have at least one vaccine shot. We're going in order by most vulnerable, and the situation is different to countries where they didn't prioritise by age group so there's a bigger % of people in vulnerable age groups who haven't vaccinated.
posted by sukeban at 11:15 AM on January 1, 2022 [15 favorites]
Thanks for this post, OP, and thanks to commenters. I am so sorry for your loss, Mavri.
I just cancelled a planned trip to Stockholm in mid-January because this is a terrible time to travel. I get my booster in less than two weeks and I am eager to get it. I am lucky in that I live near my vaccinated daughter and her husband, so I can socialise with them. The whole family is lucky in that my elementary and preschool age grandchildren will still go to their programs after the holiday break. I am unlucky in that one of them may bring home Covid any day now. So life is a crapshoot; I'm just hunkering back down again when it involves strangers and hoping, perhaps unwisely, that 7-and-under set won't infect me thanks to my vaccination and planned booster.
But my story is my story and boring as hell. As noted above, much more important are the immunocompromised, the folks with disabilities, and the huge number of people who aren't getting the care they need for things other than Covid. And it's not just in the US or Canada. That is true in Sweden and so many other countries as well. So many operations postponed, so many routine procedures delayed, so many ailments undiagnosed and continuing to affect the people who have them. It's a fucking nightmare.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
I just cancelled a planned trip to Stockholm in mid-January because this is a terrible time to travel. I get my booster in less than two weeks and I am eager to get it. I am lucky in that I live near my vaccinated daughter and her husband, so I can socialise with them. The whole family is lucky in that my elementary and preschool age grandchildren will still go to their programs after the holiday break. I am unlucky in that one of them may bring home Covid any day now. So life is a crapshoot; I'm just hunkering back down again when it involves strangers and hoping, perhaps unwisely, that 7-and-under set won't infect me thanks to my vaccination and planned booster.
But my story is my story and boring as hell. As noted above, much more important are the immunocompromised, the folks with disabilities, and the huge number of people who aren't getting the care they need for things other than Covid. And it's not just in the US or Canada. That is true in Sweden and so many other countries as well. So many operations postponed, so many routine procedures delayed, so many ailments undiagnosed and continuing to affect the people who have them. It's a fucking nightmare.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:18 AM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
The US also has more a whole cadre of people aged 50 and under unvaccinated. Even 50-65 has a lot missing the second dose. I suspect the people over 65 lived through Polio and Smallpox eradications as adults rather than kids which is what I think a lot of the difference is.
Judging by the HCAs, there's a lot of death going on in the unvaccinated 35+ in poor health group.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:20 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Judging by the HCAs, there's a lot of death going on in the unvaccinated 35+ in poor health group.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:20 AM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Omicron is really spreading in Ontario . On Friday we had over 16,000 cases. Another record.
Friday’s data comes after the province posted 13,807 new cases on Thursday and 10,436 new cases on Wednesday -- both records at the time.
The seven-day average for the number of cases reported in the province stands at 11,348. For context, that number was 4,922 this time last week. Two weeks ago, it was 1,914.
And PCR testing will only be available to symptomatic high risk individuals.
Otherwise if you have symtoms just assume you have it.
Quebec is postponing school openings by 2 weeks, whereas Dougie in Ontario. has decided to postpone opening schools for 2 days
From a recent paper from public health Ontario:
For Omicron cases compared to Delta cases, the risk of hospitalization or death was 54% lower
after adjusting for vaccination status and region.
Due to the transmissibility of Omicron, the absolute number of hospitalizations and impact on
the healthcare system is likely to be significant, despite possible reduced severity.
posted by yyz at 11:25 AM on January 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Friday’s data comes after the province posted 13,807 new cases on Thursday and 10,436 new cases on Wednesday -- both records at the time.
The seven-day average for the number of cases reported in the province stands at 11,348. For context, that number was 4,922 this time last week. Two weeks ago, it was 1,914.
And PCR testing will only be available to symptomatic high risk individuals.
Otherwise if you have symtoms just assume you have it.
Quebec is postponing school openings by 2 weeks, whereas Dougie in Ontario. has decided to postpone opening schools for 2 days
From a recent paper from public health Ontario:
For Omicron cases compared to Delta cases, the risk of hospitalization or death was 54% lower
after adjusting for vaccination status and region.
Due to the transmissibility of Omicron, the absolute number of hospitalizations and impact on
the healthcare system is likely to be significant, despite possible reduced severity.
posted by yyz at 11:25 AM on January 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Those will be the last cast counts reported on, yyz.
posted by warriorqueen at 11:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by warriorqueen at 11:30 AM on January 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's like Dougie has decided aw screw it.
No PCR testing, no school reporting of outbreaks. Not a rapid test in sight.
And full speed ahead
I just don't understand what they're thinking , warrior queen
posted by yyz at 11:36 AM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
No PCR testing, no school reporting of outbreaks. Not a rapid test in sight.
And full speed ahead
I just don't understand what they're thinking , warrior queen
posted by yyz at 11:36 AM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Me either, it's so weird to be in the control group vs. Quebec. I'm not having a good day about it, I have to admit. My family is in a good position, although I'll still be out doing my job. My youngest child is getting his second shot Wednesday and we're going to keep him home at least through Jan 10 (I hear virtual learning may even be available) to give that shot a bit of time and ourselves a bit of decision-making room.
So many operations postponed, so many routine procedures delayed, so many ailments undiagnosed and continuing to affect the people who have them.
This too. My "inconclusive biopsy" breast follow up was just been postponed for the second time. Statistically I'm unlikely to have breast cancer, but if I am in the rarer side it won't matter what the stats were.
When my daughter died in part because of a very local capacity issue (one slammed L&D ward in a smaller hospital where I was the last pregnant person in before they started diverting L&D triage to another hospital + emergency obstetrical surgery that came through the ER), no one ever sat down with me and said that it was a capacity issue. It was "a very rare event," with the implication that her 2X nuchal cord was somehow unusually compromising.
It took me 7 years to fully understand what went down. We pulled all the records, had them reviewed by experts in preparation for a lawsuit we eventually did not go forward with for mental health reasons (I was also pregnant again at the critical point and needed to focus on that) and we thought we understood. But it was when I was hospitalized with my second son's pregnancy the nurse taking care of me told me (after taking my history) that I could not possibly have been being monitored by "a real nurse" and that it must have been a practical nurse, as that hospital was infamous for using PRNs to save money.
Damn.
They didn't have enough nurses either. Which is one reason my surgery's timing went from "kind should have this" to "get this now," at a point that the OR was not available NOW.
To add insult to this injury, the way they got my daughter out non-surgically so she could survive her 89 hours was an episiotomy +forceps, which caused health issues I am now, right. on. target., starting to experience.
So that is what is likely going to happen over and over and over. And those families will just be struggling, decision-making, grieving. This is why you don't have riots. It takes a long time to realize that it wasn't just bad luck, it was insufficient resources.
posted by warriorqueen at 11:41 AM on January 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
So many operations postponed, so many routine procedures delayed, so many ailments undiagnosed and continuing to affect the people who have them.
This too. My "inconclusive biopsy" breast follow up was just been postponed for the second time. Statistically I'm unlikely to have breast cancer, but if I am in the rarer side it won't matter what the stats were.
When my daughter died in part because of a very local capacity issue (one slammed L&D ward in a smaller hospital where I was the last pregnant person in before they started diverting L&D triage to another hospital + emergency obstetrical surgery that came through the ER), no one ever sat down with me and said that it was a capacity issue. It was "a very rare event," with the implication that her 2X nuchal cord was somehow unusually compromising.
It took me 7 years to fully understand what went down. We pulled all the records, had them reviewed by experts in preparation for a lawsuit we eventually did not go forward with for mental health reasons (I was also pregnant again at the critical point and needed to focus on that) and we thought we understood. But it was when I was hospitalized with my second son's pregnancy the nurse taking care of me told me (after taking my history) that I could not possibly have been being monitored by "a real nurse" and that it must have been a practical nurse, as that hospital was infamous for using PRNs to save money.
Damn.
They didn't have enough nurses either. Which is one reason my surgery's timing went from "kind should have this" to "get this now," at a point that the OR was not available NOW.
To add insult to this injury, the way they got my daughter out non-surgically so she could survive her 89 hours was an episiotomy +forceps, which caused health issues I am now, right. on. target., starting to experience.
So that is what is likely going to happen over and over and over. And those families will just be struggling, decision-making, grieving. This is why you don't have riots. It takes a long time to realize that it wasn't just bad luck, it was insufficient resources.
posted by warriorqueen at 11:41 AM on January 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
The "it's milder" claim is merely a statement of fact
It is not a statement of fact for the United States. It will only become fact after this wave. As I stated and you ignored the CFR at this point of the delta was almost exactly the same as the current CFR. This rise, if it happens, will start right about now based on what happened with Delta. Data from the UK is problematic because they are testing at more than 5X the per capita rate of the US and much more than they were earlier in the pandemic so even an equally severe variant would produce a lower CFR because they are detecting more asymptomatic cases. Data from SA is from a different population with a very different health profile (and current climate). At best there is some preliminary comparative evidence that needs to be considered in full context with the responsible caveats.
There is some lab evidence that it may be less virulent that I think is promising but lab data is not the real world. I worry that tissue samples of reduced lung tissue infection under controlled conditions may ignore that massive upper tract infections could still carpet bomb the depths of peoples lungs so heavily that reduced infectivity won't help immune defense (much like half a million cases of people of a less virulent variant can still overwhelm a health care system).
I'd like believe Omicron is mild myself for my own psychological comfort and also for the population of the world's wellbeing but I still think the verdict is out on this and in a global pandemic I require very strong evidence to lower my guard.
posted by srboisvert at 12:05 PM on January 1, 2022 [20 favorites]
It is not a statement of fact for the United States. It will only become fact after this wave. As I stated and you ignored the CFR at this point of the delta was almost exactly the same as the current CFR. This rise, if it happens, will start right about now based on what happened with Delta. Data from the UK is problematic because they are testing at more than 5X the per capita rate of the US and much more than they were earlier in the pandemic so even an equally severe variant would produce a lower CFR because they are detecting more asymptomatic cases. Data from SA is from a different population with a very different health profile (and current climate). At best there is some preliminary comparative evidence that needs to be considered in full context with the responsible caveats.
There is some lab evidence that it may be less virulent that I think is promising but lab data is not the real world. I worry that tissue samples of reduced lung tissue infection under controlled conditions may ignore that massive upper tract infections could still carpet bomb the depths of peoples lungs so heavily that reduced infectivity won't help immune defense (much like half a million cases of people of a less virulent variant can still overwhelm a health care system).
I'd like believe Omicron is mild myself for my own psychological comfort and also for the population of the world's wellbeing but I still think the verdict is out on this and in a global pandemic I require very strong evidence to lower my guard.
posted by srboisvert at 12:05 PM on January 1, 2022 [20 favorites]
The "it's milder" claim is merely a statement of fact
An unquantified statement, though, and it's not nearly as much milder as people imagine from the raw hospitalization numbers. Those reflect prior immunity, and this deflects attention from the still-high risk to people who don't have it -- by choice, age, or immune disability.
The news headlines have really screwed this up with their "omicron looks milder" summaries. It does look intrinsically milder, somewhat, various groups getting hospitalization risk lower by 10%, 25%, the Ontario 54% above (which is an overestimate unless they were able to control for prior exposure among the non-vaccinated, a challenge across these studies). Let's be optimistic and call it a 2x decrease. This many cases this fast would be a FUCKING DISASTER with only 2x decrease.
Fortunately we also get 5x to 10x decrease from various flavors of prior immunity.
The single big summary of omicron effects is: it's quite good at breakthrough infections. Those tend to be milder.
posted by away for regrooving at 12:14 PM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
An unquantified statement, though, and it's not nearly as much milder as people imagine from the raw hospitalization numbers. Those reflect prior immunity, and this deflects attention from the still-high risk to people who don't have it -- by choice, age, or immune disability.
The news headlines have really screwed this up with their "omicron looks milder" summaries. It does look intrinsically milder, somewhat, various groups getting hospitalization risk lower by 10%, 25%, the Ontario 54% above (which is an overestimate unless they were able to control for prior exposure among the non-vaccinated, a challenge across these studies). Let's be optimistic and call it a 2x decrease. This many cases this fast would be a FUCKING DISASTER with only 2x decrease.
Fortunately we also get 5x to 10x decrease from various flavors of prior immunity.
The single big summary of omicron effects is: it's quite good at breakthrough infections. Those tend to be milder.
posted by away for regrooving at 12:14 PM on January 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
There are a few things to be hopeful about in the face of this avalanche, I believe. The big one is Plaxovid, the new pill from Pfizer. As well as being a possible remedy for some portion of the vaccine hesitant, it can be given after symptoms have started to prevent hospitalization. Hopefully that will relieve some strain on hospitals, if the production can be ramped up.
And if you’re wondering what you can do to help, other than getting triple vaxxed and following covid protocols like masking up, there is currently a blood supply shortage in the US. Consider donating.
posted by jenh526 at 1:02 PM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
And if you’re wondering what you can do to help, other than getting triple vaxxed and following covid protocols like masking up, there is currently a blood supply shortage in the US. Consider donating.
posted by jenh526 at 1:02 PM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
Delta was on a slow decline in NZ, but within the last week Omicron may have slipped out of Quarantine & Self-Isolation (the variant has been stopped in Quarantine before). A visiting UK DJ didn't wait for his final test-results before hitting the clubs; he is currently NZ's least favourite person. Not just because he may have introduced Omicron community-transmission, the next week or two will indicate whether it has spread (I imagine contact tracers are frantically trying to track contacts down over the next few days) but because a lot of Kiwis stuck overseas will be chaffing at the extra controls likely to be introduced at the border eg potentially removing the self-isolation option and increasing time in MIQ.
Given whats happening in the outside world, its likely we'll get Omicron one way or another in January unless we completely close the border or step up MIQ facilities/protocols to another level - even then it'll likely escape into the community. Currently the plan is to ramp-up booster roll-out and target kids for their shots. Fingers x-ed Omicron can be held at bay until more vaccine coverage can be achieved.
Meanwhile, the small but vociferous anti-vax crowd seems to be aligning with fascists & other malcontents lapping up Q, Sovcit content from overseas (& now also peddled by locals using a similar playbook to that used elsewhere in the world) adding a new element of friction to the countries Covid response.
posted by phigmov at 1:07 PM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
Given whats happening in the outside world, its likely we'll get Omicron one way or another in January unless we completely close the border or step up MIQ facilities/protocols to another level - even then it'll likely escape into the community. Currently the plan is to ramp-up booster roll-out and target kids for their shots. Fingers x-ed Omicron can be held at bay until more vaccine coverage can be achieved.
Meanwhile, the small but vociferous anti-vax crowd seems to be aligning with fascists & other malcontents lapping up Q, Sovcit content from overseas (& now also peddled by locals using a similar playbook to that used elsewhere in the world) adding a new element of friction to the countries Covid response.
posted by phigmov at 1:07 PM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
I wonder if Apple/Google/public health services can decrease the required length of time to trigger a smartphone exposure notification, because as far as I know it still requires 15 minutes of constant exposure which may now be too short.
Given very poor uptake of the app (in my area) and complete non-support in the second and third largest US states, it's clearly not _the_ solution but this technology should be relatively straightforward to update. When it doesn't get updated, it shows a baffling inability to do even minor changes in the face of new data.
posted by meowzilla at 1:07 PM on January 1, 2022
Given very poor uptake of the app (in my area) and complete non-support in the second and third largest US states, it's clearly not _the_ solution but this technology should be relatively straightforward to update. When it doesn't get updated, it shows a baffling inability to do even minor changes in the face of new data.
posted by meowzilla at 1:07 PM on January 1, 2022
I read medical professional forums. Not one myself, but have been interested to see what’s happening lately from the horse’s mouth. Have to say, it is horrifying. Hospitals are short-staffed, not just because of people being out sick, but because of burnout.
I know someone who’s intimately involved with the very beginning of the pipeline for healthcare education. The number of incoming undergraduates committing to pre-med/nursing/etc. is down significantly. There’s always melt, and it remains to be seen over the next year and a half whether the current circumstances are merely deterring earlier those who would have been deterred later, or whether it will result in a decreased number of students finishing the programs and heading to medical school/nursing school/etc., but the long-term outlook is not good at the moment. The business department’s doing great, though.
posted by jocelmeow at 1:36 PM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
I know someone who’s intimately involved with the very beginning of the pipeline for healthcare education. The number of incoming undergraduates committing to pre-med/nursing/etc. is down significantly. There’s always melt, and it remains to be seen over the next year and a half whether the current circumstances are merely deterring earlier those who would have been deterred later, or whether it will result in a decreased number of students finishing the programs and heading to medical school/nursing school/etc., but the long-term outlook is not good at the moment. The business department’s doing great, though.
posted by jocelmeow at 1:36 PM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
One of the reasons that vociferous assertions that this is a "mild" variant and "most" people will be "fine" is a problem is because it's an inherently ableist outlook. "Most" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in those prognostications because it leaves out lots of people who are invisible -- or expendable -- from that point of view.
Alice Wong wrote this in April 2020, but it's still quite relevant (and some of its points even moreso now than then):
Everything is personal and political for me. I know people with cognitive and developmental disabilities. I use disposable briefs when needed and require total assistance with my personal care such as eating, dressing, and bathing. Were I to contract coronavirus, I imagine a doctor might read my chart, look at me, and think I’m a waste of their efforts and precious resources that never should have been in shortage to begin with. He might even take my ventilator for other patients who have a better shot at survival than me. All of these hard choices doctors have to make primarily hurt those hit hardest, not the people who present as worthy investments of scarce resources. Who gets to make these hard choices and who bears the brunt of them is a matter of inequality and discrimination toward protected classes.
[...]
Disabled people are not acceptable collateral damage in this pandemic. I want to believe that the future is not just mine, but ours. When one of us falls through the cracks, we all suffer and lose something.
So, as they say, one's mileage around assertions of "mild," "fine," and "most" may vary wildly.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:05 PM on January 1, 2022 [53 favorites]
Alice Wong wrote this in April 2020, but it's still quite relevant (and some of its points even moreso now than then):
Everything is personal and political for me. I know people with cognitive and developmental disabilities. I use disposable briefs when needed and require total assistance with my personal care such as eating, dressing, and bathing. Were I to contract coronavirus, I imagine a doctor might read my chart, look at me, and think I’m a waste of their efforts and precious resources that never should have been in shortage to begin with. He might even take my ventilator for other patients who have a better shot at survival than me. All of these hard choices doctors have to make primarily hurt those hit hardest, not the people who present as worthy investments of scarce resources. Who gets to make these hard choices and who bears the brunt of them is a matter of inequality and discrimination toward protected classes.
[...]
Disabled people are not acceptable collateral damage in this pandemic. I want to believe that the future is not just mine, but ours. When one of us falls through the cracks, we all suffer and lose something.
So, as they say, one's mileage around assertions of "mild," "fine," and "most" may vary wildly.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:05 PM on January 1, 2022 [53 favorites]
"is an immunocompromised person's fear of getting infected worth a bar owner's livelihood?"
Uh, yeah, yoiu might wanna rethink that liveliehood. My sister was killed by a drunk driver who was driving after being at a bar. So you wanna play that game I say _ the immunocompromised person who is not endangering society by serving deadly alcohol (or encouraging them to infect each other just because "money"...
Meanwhile Zuck and Musk and Bezos and all these other rich fuckers keep racking up money - but somehow "we can't afford it" maybe you should stop wishing death on your fellow citizens who struggle and start demanding the wealthy pay their share to keep society running in the meantime. Not every job is necessary. Those that aren't should be allowed to be able to live while this plays out, but instead you're here equivocating "value" (but not daring to question the value of the stock market's rise and these assholes getting richer).
posted by symbioid at 2:10 PM on January 1, 2022 [25 favorites]
Uh, yeah, yoiu might wanna rethink that liveliehood. My sister was killed by a drunk driver who was driving after being at a bar. So you wanna play that game I say _ the immunocompromised person who is not endangering society by serving deadly alcohol (or encouraging them to infect each other just because "money"...
Meanwhile Zuck and Musk and Bezos and all these other rich fuckers keep racking up money - but somehow "we can't afford it" maybe you should stop wishing death on your fellow citizens who struggle and start demanding the wealthy pay their share to keep society running in the meantime. Not every job is necessary. Those that aren't should be allowed to be able to live while this plays out, but instead you're here equivocating "value" (but not daring to question the value of the stock market's rise and these assholes getting richer).
posted by symbioid at 2:10 PM on January 1, 2022 [25 favorites]
Regarding Covid evolving towards less virulence or not, Omicron is actually evidence against this theory (not that we should need much evidence against a theory without much basis in fact). While there is some data now that Omicron is probably less virulent than Delta, Omicron did not evolve from Delta. Omicron does not appear to be descended from any of the variants and is on a separate branch of the phylogenetic tree from the original Wuhan strain.
Delta is, of course, significantly more virulent than the Wuhan strain. I think the evidence to date suggests Omicron is probably less virulent than Delta, but more virulent than the Wuhan strain. So Omicron in fact evolved to be more transmissible and more virulent than its likely ancestor. Maybe if we're really lucky it will turn out that Omicron is just as virulent as the Wuhan strain, but I think the evidence to date rules out it being less virulent.
In a way, we're probably lucky because if Delta had evolved to be more transmissible and have greater immune escape, we'd like be in an even worse situation than the one we are in.
posted by ssg at 2:13 PM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
Delta is, of course, significantly more virulent than the Wuhan strain. I think the evidence to date suggests Omicron is probably less virulent than Delta, but more virulent than the Wuhan strain. So Omicron in fact evolved to be more transmissible and more virulent than its likely ancestor. Maybe if we're really lucky it will turn out that Omicron is just as virulent as the Wuhan strain, but I think the evidence to date rules out it being less virulent.
In a way, we're probably lucky because if Delta had evolved to be more transmissible and have greater immune escape, we'd like be in an even worse situation than the one we are in.
posted by ssg at 2:13 PM on January 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
Could we please include citations for assertions? Everyone is stressed and angry, but we don't do right by ourselves or each other when we (or at least the vast majority of Mefites who aren't qualified medics) make scientific assertions without citations. I have been linking to some of the leading medical professionals when I share statements about omicron's relative infectiveness and severity. Here is another article, from the NYT.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:29 PM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 2:29 PM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
One of the reasons that vociferous assertions that this is a "mild" variant and "most" people will be "fine" is a problem is because it's an inherently ableist outlook. "Most" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in those prognostications because it leaves out lots of people who are invisible -- or expendable -- from that point of view.
Thank you, mandolin conspiracy, for succinctly saying what I have been trying to cohere into words to post here. As I age, more people I care about have illnesses, from mild to severe. More people I care about are the invisible elderly, or immunocompromised, or seriously ill or residents of nursing homes, and they don't feel expendable to me.
posted by See you tomorrow, saguaro at 2:31 PM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
Thank you, mandolin conspiracy, for succinctly saying what I have been trying to cohere into words to post here. As I age, more people I care about have illnesses, from mild to severe. More people I care about are the invisible elderly, or immunocompromised, or seriously ill or residents of nursing homes, and they don't feel expendable to me.
posted by See you tomorrow, saguaro at 2:31 PM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
I just don't understand what they're thinking , warrior queen
I wonder if "thinking" is the right verb here. It sure sounds like DoFo is bowing to the internet commenters who declare that the case loads are so high because we keep testing and therefore if we stopped testing, the virus would vanish.
My closest friend works in heath care, in a seniors' home. She has been telling me for weeks that the residents who are ill (from non-COVID ailments) or injured beg not to be sent to a hospital, for fear of contracting the virus there. Last night she sent me a long text:
An anti-vaxxer former employee of mine called me out for "continuing to support this BS" (you know, that there is a highly transmissible virus circulating, which she insists is the common cold). Rather than be the 95th person to tell her why she's mistaken, I replied with a small joke:
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:37 PM on January 1, 2022 [44 favorites]
I wonder if "thinking" is the right verb here. It sure sounds like DoFo is bowing to the internet commenters who declare that the case loads are so high because we keep testing and therefore if we stopped testing, the virus would vanish.
My closest friend works in heath care, in a seniors' home. She has been telling me for weeks that the residents who are ill (from non-COVID ailments) or injured beg not to be sent to a hospital, for fear of contracting the virus there. Last night she sent me a long text:
I was so upset when I heard on the news that they are considering a new directive that healthcare workers who test positive won’t isolate at all but will go right back to work wearing PPE. If they think there are staff shortages now , it will pale in comparison to the number of people who leave when told that they have to work alongside infected coworkers and/or actively bring the virus into the home we’ve been trying to protect for 2 years.On the other hand, I put something on social media recently that did not mention COVD specifically at all but was merely a link to a short article at how we all bring our own biases and assumptions to any news we hear, which make us as a species lousy at fact-checking.
Everyone is tired and stressed, most of us have stuck it out for the whole of the pandemic. Now they are going to add the emotional burden of knowing that we are going to be the ones bringing the virus to the residents? If I worked infected, without any isolation period, and any of the residents died of covid I would never be sure. I suspect that, if this is what they decide “in the next few days” we will immediately lose more staff who no longer feel safe working there.
The other results will be that there will be no more asymptomatic healthcare workers because you can’t work positive with symptoms. I understand the problem of staff shortages but you cannot imagine the tension at work when they said today that they’re considering this.
An anti-vaxxer former employee of mine called me out for "continuing to support this BS" (you know, that there is a highly transmissible virus circulating, which she insists is the common cold). Rather than be the 95th person to tell her why she's mistaken, I replied with a small joke:
Guy comes home from work. Worried spouse says, "Honey, I'm so glad you're home safe! I heard on the traffic report there was some idiot driving the wrong way down the highway."She said that had demonstrated her point: the guy found his exit and got home safe and sound.
The guy says, "One idiot? There were hundreds of them!"
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:37 PM on January 1, 2022 [44 favorites]
Α -- Β -- Γ -- Δ -- Ε -- Ζ -- Η -- Θ -- Ι -- Κ -- Λ -- Μ -- Ν -- Ξ -- Ο -- Π -- Ρ -- Σ -- Τ -- Υ -- Φ -- Χ -- Ψ -- Ω
We are here ^
posted by sammyo at 2:46 PM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
We are here ^
posted by sammyo at 2:46 PM on January 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
And if you’re wondering what you can do to help, other than getting triple vaxxed and following covid protocols like masking up, there is currently a blood supply shortage in the US. Consider donating.
What’s fun is that, here in Alaska, the blood bank donation workers won’t mask up or require people who donate to mask up. I know quite a few regular donators who stopped during our (enormous, terrifying) Delta surge in the fall because of this.
posted by charmedimsure at 2:48 PM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
What’s fun is that, here in Alaska, the blood bank donation workers won’t mask up or require people who donate to mask up. I know quite a few regular donators who stopped during our (enormous, terrifying) Delta surge in the fall because of this.
posted by charmedimsure at 2:48 PM on January 1, 2022 [17 favorites]
the blood bank donation workers won’t mask up or require people who donate to mask up.
For. FUCKS. Sake.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:09 PM on January 1, 2022 [30 favorites]
For. FUCKS. Sake.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:09 PM on January 1, 2022 [30 favorites]
I do get that online school is hard, and I wish we could provide better support for it, but it's not the same as radiation exposure.
As a parent of a kid who had great difficulty with online school, let me say the problem with is mostly not the format but mostly the way that our society is refusing to actually adapt for a pandemic.
Let kids have a slower pace and they’ll learn just fine in zoom. Give them pass/ no pass and they’ll be fine. They’re having trouble with a meat grinder of expectations combined with less optimal school, not the school itself.
posted by corb at 4:39 PM on January 1, 2022 [35 favorites]
As a parent of a kid who had great difficulty with online school, let me say the problem with is mostly not the format but mostly the way that our society is refusing to actually adapt for a pandemic.
Let kids have a slower pace and they’ll learn just fine in zoom. Give them pass/ no pass and they’ll be fine. They’re having trouble with a meat grinder of expectations combined with less optimal school, not the school itself.
posted by corb at 4:39 PM on January 1, 2022 [35 favorites]
Α -- Β -- Γ -- Δ -- Ε -- Ζ -- Η -- Θ -- Ι -- Κ -- Λ -- Μ -- Ν -- Ξ -- Ο -- Π -- Ρ -- Σ -- Τ -- Υ -- Φ -- Χ -- Ψ -- Ω
We are here ^
Er, not quite. Ν (nu) and Ξ (xi) are being omitted. The WHO sent out a statement in late November: “'Nu' is too easily confounded with 'new,' and 'Xi' was not used because it is a common last name,” the WHO said, adding that the agency’s “best practices for naming disease suggest avoiding 'causing offence to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional or ethnic groups.'’
I can think of at least one General Secretary of the Communist Party of China who probably would not react well to having his name slapped on a variant.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:48 PM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
We are here ^
Er, not quite. Ν (nu) and Ξ (xi) are being omitted. The WHO sent out a statement in late November: “'Nu' is too easily confounded with 'new,' and 'Xi' was not used because it is a common last name,” the WHO said, adding that the agency’s “best practices for naming disease suggest avoiding 'causing offence to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional or ethnic groups.'’
I can think of at least one General Secretary of the Communist Party of China who probably would not react well to having his name slapped on a variant.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:48 PM on January 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ontario's government has given up on us. They've recently announced that they aren't going to bother tracking covid in schools anymore, that you shouldn't bother getting PCR tests, and the new distancing and quarantine guidelines are basically *shrug emoji*.
posted by LegallyBread at 5:01 PM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by LegallyBread at 5:01 PM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ontario's government has given up on us. They've recently announced that they aren't going to bother tracking covid in schools anymore, that you shouldn't bother getting PCR tests, and the new distancing and quarantine guidelines are basically *shrug emoji*.
Is there a right-wing government in the anglosphere that hasn't had this response verbatim? It was the policy of the Trump administration, it's been policy for the UK for a couple of weeks now, policy in Alberta for months and policy in New South Wales since 10pm NYE (when they literally sent out the "fuck you you're on your own" news release).
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:07 PM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
Is there a right-wing government in the anglosphere that hasn't had this response verbatim? It was the policy of the Trump administration, it's been policy for the UK for a couple of weeks now, policy in Alberta for months and policy in New South Wales since 10pm NYE (when they literally sent out the "fuck you you're on your own" news release).
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:07 PM on January 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
Also, Θ is theta, not omicron.We are here ^Er, not quite. Ν (nu) and Ξ (xi) are being omitted.
Α Β Γ Δ Ε Ζ Η Θ Ι Κ Λ Μ Ν Ξ Ο Π Ρ Σ Τ Υ Φ Χ Ψ Ω
↑ We are, in fact, here.
(Or really technically at Ν since like you said, they skipped Ν and Ξ. This is also ignoring the fact that it's probably not going to stop mutating into new variants of concern just because we run out of Greek letters...)posted by zztzed at 5:18 PM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
there is not even a fraction of the same increase in covid-caused ICU admissions.
it's more of a very small irrational number.
Rhetoric is a hell of a drug, but it doesn't keep ICU beds open for those who need them.
posted by fairmettle at 5:53 PM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
it's more of a very small irrational number.
Rhetoric is a hell of a drug, but it doesn't keep ICU beds open for those who need them.
posted by fairmettle at 5:53 PM on January 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
I wonder if Apple/Google/public health services can decrease the required length of time to trigger a smartphone exposure notification, because as far as I know it still requires 15 minutes of constant exposure which may now be too short.
Given very poor uptake of the app (in my area) and complete non-support in the second and third largest US states, it's clearly not _the_ solution but this technology should be relatively straightforward to update. When it doesn't get updated, it shows a baffling inability to do even minor changes in the face of new data.
With test positivity in the US closing in on 20% I think those apps are already useless. If you are out and aboot you are for sure eh being exposed to covid-19 all the time and the notifications would be overwhelming and serve no useful warning function.
posted by srboisvert at 6:28 PM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Given very poor uptake of the app (in my area) and complete non-support in the second and third largest US states, it's clearly not _the_ solution but this technology should be relatively straightforward to update. When it doesn't get updated, it shows a baffling inability to do even minor changes in the face of new data.
With test positivity in the US closing in on 20% I think those apps are already useless. If you are out and aboot you are for sure eh being exposed to covid-19 all the time and the notifications would be overwhelming and serve no useful warning function.
posted by srboisvert at 6:28 PM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Who knows what the numbers will do. Three of my friends got sick with Covid last year, one of them while in recovery from cancer surgery, and one of them moving from mild symptoms to being dead in about a week. This Christmas my brother in law got sick, and it's a good thing my mother wasn't there, because she's almost the living embodiment of Covid risk factors, yet refuses to get vaccinated. Then after Christmas my uncle who works in healthcare got sick and was admitted to the hospital. Last I heard he was unconscious and they administered 5 liters of fluids. He and his family are quarantined so it's impossible to visit them. Who knows how mild it will be.
posted by dmh at 6:32 PM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by dmh at 6:32 PM on January 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
It is pretty discouraging how many people, including here on Metafilter where we’ve had lots of posts and discussion that were more educational, are still thinking of the pandemic in purely individual terms rather than systemic terms.
I have to wonder how much of this is a function of fatigue in the wake of institutions that have, at every level, failed us. They continue to fail us at every turn: there are no resources being provided to help people isolate, and the few types of public guidance that tackle anything in a systematic direction (lockdowns, restrictions on social venues, vaccine mandates, etc) come in for the most aggressive and powerful attacks from conservatives. In education, educators and students alike have been forced into in person classrooms in part because working parents need childcare and in part because post-secondary education is terrified of losing profits. Everywhere we turn, we see the priorities of our collective institutions: economic output and production yield over human lives. Individual people trying to keep themselves and people within their sphere of responsibility safe are fighting uphill and without resources or support... and in many cases have disproportionately cut sources of comfort while retaining all the old pre-pandemic stresses. Everything you love is non-essential, but god forbid productivity stop while we weather a storm.
Moreover everyone is tired, exhausted, and angry, and wistfully thinking back to pre-pandemic time points before behavioral precautions started. A significant number of people reflexively feel that if only we would all agree to act within the pre-pandemic state of affairs, that state of affairs would basically spring into being. It wouldn't fucking work, but people are lonely and sad and angry and tired, and that shit diminishes cognitive capacity anyway.
On top of that, no one is behaving like their best selves socially any more, and you get the glorious knock on effects of all of that. I spend so fucking much of my work time these days just trying to reassure students that it's okay, no one is expecting them to perform at pre pandemic levels, but institutions certainly aren't proclaiming that and how can they trust me when I'm one of very few places they're hearing that message explicitly? What if I'm wrong?
I want to think in systemic terms. I want to think about things we can do to keep one another safe, shore up medical morale, keep our disabled people alive. But like. The institutions that coordinate our systemic movements are not acting. They will not act. It all feels very hopeless and exhausting, and one very specific coping mechanism for that is to stop focusing on the bigger picture that one can't control and to start focusing on things that are within personal control.... which brings us right back to individualist approaches.
Fuck, I'm so tired. It's all so terribly human, in all the worst ways.
posted by sciatrix at 7:11 PM on January 1, 2022 [76 favorites]
I have to wonder how much of this is a function of fatigue in the wake of institutions that have, at every level, failed us. They continue to fail us at every turn: there are no resources being provided to help people isolate, and the few types of public guidance that tackle anything in a systematic direction (lockdowns, restrictions on social venues, vaccine mandates, etc) come in for the most aggressive and powerful attacks from conservatives. In education, educators and students alike have been forced into in person classrooms in part because working parents need childcare and in part because post-secondary education is terrified of losing profits. Everywhere we turn, we see the priorities of our collective institutions: economic output and production yield over human lives. Individual people trying to keep themselves and people within their sphere of responsibility safe are fighting uphill and without resources or support... and in many cases have disproportionately cut sources of comfort while retaining all the old pre-pandemic stresses. Everything you love is non-essential, but god forbid productivity stop while we weather a storm.
Moreover everyone is tired, exhausted, and angry, and wistfully thinking back to pre-pandemic time points before behavioral precautions started. A significant number of people reflexively feel that if only we would all agree to act within the pre-pandemic state of affairs, that state of affairs would basically spring into being. It wouldn't fucking work, but people are lonely and sad and angry and tired, and that shit diminishes cognitive capacity anyway.
On top of that, no one is behaving like their best selves socially any more, and you get the glorious knock on effects of all of that. I spend so fucking much of my work time these days just trying to reassure students that it's okay, no one is expecting them to perform at pre pandemic levels, but institutions certainly aren't proclaiming that and how can they trust me when I'm one of very few places they're hearing that message explicitly? What if I'm wrong?
I want to think in systemic terms. I want to think about things we can do to keep one another safe, shore up medical morale, keep our disabled people alive. But like. The institutions that coordinate our systemic movements are not acting. They will not act. It all feels very hopeless and exhausting, and one very specific coping mechanism for that is to stop focusing on the bigger picture that one can't control and to start focusing on things that are within personal control.... which brings us right back to individualist approaches.
Fuck, I'm so tired. It's all so terribly human, in all the worst ways.
posted by sciatrix at 7:11 PM on January 1, 2022 [76 favorites]
People who think it's OK for him to die so a bar can stay open can fuck off into the sun.
At the rate omicron is spreading its everything that would need to be in full lockdown to slow it so I’m even more mad at the “we can’t force people to be vaccinated crowd”. We have a mitigation, it’s not perfect, but it keeps people mostly safe from serious complications, and more importantly it keeps the system from crumbling down, because no health care system in the world has the capacity to handle something like this.
I’m fucking enraged when this is framed as a personal decision, the consequences of not getting vaccinated are denying healthcare to other people, that is not personal at all, and it’s all because you were just too fucking dumb, selfish, republican to get a fucking shot in the arm, which is free and barely an inconvenience compared to not seeing your family, friends or losing your job/business because restrictions.
The hammer needs to fall on those people, we cant function as society with jerks like that. Omicron would be bad with high vax rates but the health care system wouldn’t have to prioritize selfish jerks if they at least got vaccinated.
And if all our charters and constitutions and bill of rights prevent us from doing this, fuck em and let’s burn them and start anew they’ve shown they’re not adapted for the modern world.
It’s mind boggling we’re still knee deep in that problem and it’s totally depressing me since global warming is even more insidious.
Mods nuke this post if it’s too much cursing. As they say in the Simpsons, I regret nothing.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:32 PM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
At the rate omicron is spreading its everything that would need to be in full lockdown to slow it so I’m even more mad at the “we can’t force people to be vaccinated crowd”. We have a mitigation, it’s not perfect, but it keeps people mostly safe from serious complications, and more importantly it keeps the system from crumbling down, because no health care system in the world has the capacity to handle something like this.
I’m fucking enraged when this is framed as a personal decision, the consequences of not getting vaccinated are denying healthcare to other people, that is not personal at all, and it’s all because you were just too fucking dumb, selfish, republican to get a fucking shot in the arm, which is free and barely an inconvenience compared to not seeing your family, friends or losing your job/business because restrictions.
The hammer needs to fall on those people, we cant function as society with jerks like that. Omicron would be bad with high vax rates but the health care system wouldn’t have to prioritize selfish jerks if they at least got vaccinated.
And if all our charters and constitutions and bill of rights prevent us from doing this, fuck em and let’s burn them and start anew they’ve shown they’re not adapted for the modern world.
It’s mind boggling we’re still knee deep in that problem and it’s totally depressing me since global warming is even more insidious.
Mods nuke this post if it’s too much cursing. As they say in the Simpsons, I regret nothing.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:32 PM on January 1, 2022 [23 favorites]
NYT reports covid hospitalizations now above 88,000. 28% 14 day increase. It was 78,000 yesterday.
But y’know, I heard it was mild so I’m sure we’re fine. People said it’s a FACT. I heard talk of fractions not even existing any more.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 8:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
But y’know, I heard it was mild so I’m sure we’re fine. People said it’s a FACT. I heard talk of fractions not even existing any more.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 8:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
The hammer needs to fall on those people, we cant function as society with jerks like that.
Yes, and also the jerks in the media (social media also) who are profiting off of manipulating them.
posted by jenh526 at 9:18 PM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yes, and also the jerks in the media (social media also) who are profiting off of manipulating them.
posted by jenh526 at 9:18 PM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
It sure sounds like DoFo is bowing to the internet commenters who declare that the case loads are so high because we keep testing and therefore if we stopped testing, the virus would vanish.
Concluding that requires assuming that an occupant of high office could be an empty suit with no cognitive capacity for anything beyond self-aggrandizement and deflection of immediate political threats.
Given that this has been the exact character assessment I've rapidly formed of all three of the right wing leaders I've met in person, it's an assumption I'm quite willing to entertain.
posted by flabdablet at 9:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Concluding that requires assuming that an occupant of high office could be an empty suit with no cognitive capacity for anything beyond self-aggrandizement and deflection of immediate political threats.
Given that this has been the exact character assessment I've rapidly formed of all three of the right wing leaders I've met in person, it's an assumption I'm quite willing to entertain.
posted by flabdablet at 9:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
More data with good news about the benefits of that booster shot.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:44 PM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:44 PM on January 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
This is a survivor bias fallacy. The viruses that currently exist didn't kill their hosts because the ones that did resulted in both the host and the virus going extinct. No choice or volition on the part of the virus. Just the hard reality of a dead end produced via mutational randomness.
Virus do not want. They do not choose. They do not evolve in directions. They just randomly mutate.
Anybody who tells you that covid-19's evolution will go in a specific direction is incorrect.
This got a lot of favorites, but it is almost certainly incorrect, or at least incomplete. Viruses may mutate randomly, but they are also under selection pressures that dictate which mutations survive. The trajectory of the Omicron variant is a perfect example of this process. In short, Omicron owes at least a large part of its success to its ability to evade antibodies produced by prior infection and/or vaccination. Such selection pressures wouldn't exist in an immunologically naive population. As such, changes in the host environment are dictating the course of SARS-COV 2's evolution.
Here is where it gets interesting: New York Times article posted at the beginning of the thread that apparently nobody read. Apparently, the changes to the Spike protein in Omicron came at a "cost". I put "cost" in quotation marks because the changes actually helped Omicron survive in a host species with high levels of immunity, but those changes also decreased the virus's ability to replicate in lung cells. Those changes also very likely are at least contributing to the decreased pathogency of Omicron compared to early versions of SARS-COV 2. Again, the selection pressures that produced this variant simply didn't exist at the start of the pandemic.
Moreover, as the scientists speculate at the end of the article, Omicron also likely has other advantages over earlier variants leading to its increased transmissibility. Basically, if it's better able to replicate in the upper respiratory system, particularly in the nose, it's probably much easier to transmit compared to earlier variants for purely mechanical reasons. Again, the selection pressures leading to these changes didn't exist earlier in the pandemic. Now they do, however, and they are shaping the evolutionary course of the virus. Omicron infection also increases immunity to Delta, so the virus continues to contribute to changes in its host that further shape its evolutionary path.
That being said, to reiterate what I posted earlier in the thread, there probably still is Delta floating around out there. Certainly Delta was still highly prevalent up to at least a week ago.
posted by eagles123 at 9:54 PM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
Virus do not want. They do not choose. They do not evolve in directions. They just randomly mutate.
Anybody who tells you that covid-19's evolution will go in a specific direction is incorrect.
This got a lot of favorites, but it is almost certainly incorrect, or at least incomplete. Viruses may mutate randomly, but they are also under selection pressures that dictate which mutations survive. The trajectory of the Omicron variant is a perfect example of this process. In short, Omicron owes at least a large part of its success to its ability to evade antibodies produced by prior infection and/or vaccination. Such selection pressures wouldn't exist in an immunologically naive population. As such, changes in the host environment are dictating the course of SARS-COV 2's evolution.
Here is where it gets interesting: New York Times article posted at the beginning of the thread that apparently nobody read. Apparently, the changes to the Spike protein in Omicron came at a "cost". I put "cost" in quotation marks because the changes actually helped Omicron survive in a host species with high levels of immunity, but those changes also decreased the virus's ability to replicate in lung cells. Those changes also very likely are at least contributing to the decreased pathogency of Omicron compared to early versions of SARS-COV 2. Again, the selection pressures that produced this variant simply didn't exist at the start of the pandemic.
Moreover, as the scientists speculate at the end of the article, Omicron also likely has other advantages over earlier variants leading to its increased transmissibility. Basically, if it's better able to replicate in the upper respiratory system, particularly in the nose, it's probably much easier to transmit compared to earlier variants for purely mechanical reasons. Again, the selection pressures leading to these changes didn't exist earlier in the pandemic. Now they do, however, and they are shaping the evolutionary course of the virus. Omicron infection also increases immunity to Delta, so the virus continues to contribute to changes in its host that further shape its evolutionary path.
That being said, to reiterate what I posted earlier in the thread, there probably still is Delta floating around out there. Certainly Delta was still highly prevalent up to at least a week ago.
posted by eagles123 at 9:54 PM on January 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
This got a lot of favorites, but it is almost certainly incorrect, or at least incomplete. Viruses may mutate randomly, but they are also under selection pressures that dictate which mutations survive.
The way evolution works is not that more favourable mutations survive, it is that more unfavourable mutations die. That may seem like a linguistically minor distinction, but it makes a significant difference in the population dynamics (of viruses or any organism).
From a theoretical perspective, a virus can be both super successful at replicating itself and have quite a high death rate if it has a long period where host organisms are infectious but pre-symptomatic. One non-theoretical/concrete example of this is HIV. Other comments above have also linked to virologists explaining why COVID, which also has a pre-symptomatic infectious period, doesn’t necessarily face evolutionary pressure to become less severe.
posted by eviemath at 10:24 PM on January 1, 2022 [21 favorites]
The way evolution works is not that more favourable mutations survive, it is that more unfavourable mutations die. That may seem like a linguistically minor distinction, but it makes a significant difference in the population dynamics (of viruses or any organism).
From a theoretical perspective, a virus can be both super successful at replicating itself and have quite a high death rate if it has a long period where host organisms are infectious but pre-symptomatic. One non-theoretical/concrete example of this is HIV. Other comments above have also linked to virologists explaining why COVID, which also has a pre-symptomatic infectious period, doesn’t necessarily face evolutionary pressure to become less severe.
posted by eviemath at 10:24 PM on January 1, 2022 [21 favorites]
The hammer needs to fall on those people, we cant function as society with jerks like that. Omicron would be bad with high vax rates but the health care system wouldn’t have to prioritize selfish jerks if they at least got vaccinated.
And if all our charters and constitutions and bill of rights prevent us from doing this, fuck em and let’s burn them and start anew they’ve shown they’re not adapted for the modern world.
This is a real trade-off that is being made in the world. My mom is a China born American citizen who returned to China with my dad a couple months ago to take care of her aging parents in a city about the population of New York City.
It takes a lot to get into China these days. Being a citizen isn't good enough and you need to have a pretty compelling reason to get a visa (for my mom it was being the only child of sick, aging parents). On top of normal travel restrictions like testing and vaccination and such, there's a mandatory quarantine in a prison-like hotel that you pay for out of your own pocket for 3 weeks upon entry. You're not allowed to leave your room even for food, and my mom told me in some cases married couples were even separated. Your mental health, dietary restrictions, etc. are not really considered.
She's been sending me texts, images, videos of the restaurants they've been eating out at and the places they've gone out to now that they're past that and it looks like they're thriving. She sent me this text yesterday:
"The best part of here is the safety, it doesn’t matter how late at night, how small or how dark is the street, we don’t have to worry if there is any unknown danger around, on top of that, zero Covid-19 cases in the city. Almost every street is clean, that’s very impressive."
Originally her plan was to stay for up to a year and then return to the United States. But I wouldn't blame her if she stayed in China and I might even advise it now. I'm convinced Covid is a forever thing now and who knows if China can actually keep it at bay forever but if you want a real life example of a government that's made the freedom-safety tradeoff to keep Covid out, there it is and it's been interesting for me to see and consider.
posted by Percolate at 10:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [27 favorites]
And if all our charters and constitutions and bill of rights prevent us from doing this, fuck em and let’s burn them and start anew they’ve shown they’re not adapted for the modern world.
This is a real trade-off that is being made in the world. My mom is a China born American citizen who returned to China with my dad a couple months ago to take care of her aging parents in a city about the population of New York City.
It takes a lot to get into China these days. Being a citizen isn't good enough and you need to have a pretty compelling reason to get a visa (for my mom it was being the only child of sick, aging parents). On top of normal travel restrictions like testing and vaccination and such, there's a mandatory quarantine in a prison-like hotel that you pay for out of your own pocket for 3 weeks upon entry. You're not allowed to leave your room even for food, and my mom told me in some cases married couples were even separated. Your mental health, dietary restrictions, etc. are not really considered.
She's been sending me texts, images, videos of the restaurants they've been eating out at and the places they've gone out to now that they're past that and it looks like they're thriving. She sent me this text yesterday:
"The best part of here is the safety, it doesn’t matter how late at night, how small or how dark is the street, we don’t have to worry if there is any unknown danger around, on top of that, zero Covid-19 cases in the city. Almost every street is clean, that’s very impressive."
Originally her plan was to stay for up to a year and then return to the United States. But I wouldn't blame her if she stayed in China and I might even advise it now. I'm convinced Covid is a forever thing now and who knows if China can actually keep it at bay forever but if you want a real life example of a government that's made the freedom-safety tradeoff to keep Covid out, there it is and it's been interesting for me to see and consider.
posted by Percolate at 10:43 PM on January 1, 2022 [27 favorites]
Those changes also very likely are at least contributing to the decreased pathogency of Omicron compared to early versions of SARS-COV 2.
I don't think the evidence we have now points to Omicron being less pathogenic than early versions of Covid. There does seem to be relatively good evidence that is is less pathogenic than Delta, but we seem to have forgotten that Delta was a big step up from earlier variants and the original strain. In the face of so much talk about how mild Omicron is, I think it's important to bear the context in mind. Let's hope that the lower replication in lung cells turns out to be more significant than it looks from the hospitalization data we have to date.
posted by ssg at 11:11 PM on January 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
I don't think the evidence we have now points to Omicron being less pathogenic than early versions of Covid. There does seem to be relatively good evidence that is is less pathogenic than Delta, but we seem to have forgotten that Delta was a big step up from earlier variants and the original strain. In the face of so much talk about how mild Omicron is, I think it's important to bear the context in mind. Let's hope that the lower replication in lung cells turns out to be more significant than it looks from the hospitalization data we have to date.
posted by ssg at 11:11 PM on January 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
The way evolution works is not that more favourable mutations survive, it is that more unfavourable mutations die. That may seem like a linguistically minor distinction, but it makes a significant difference in the population dynamics (of viruses or any organism).
From a theoretical perspective, a virus can be both super successful at replicating itself and have quite a high death rate if it has a long period where host organisms are infectious but pre-symptomatic. One non-theoretical/concrete example of this is HIV. Other comments above have also linked to virologists explaining why COVID, which also has a pre-symptomatic infectious period, doesn’t necessarily face evolutionary pressure to become less severe.
Omicron changes the environment around it. Because Omicron infection also increases immunity to Delta, variants with mutations similar to Omicron outcompete variants without those mutations. That's why Omicron replaces Delta wherever it arrives, though the process isn't instantaneous. Unlike South Africa, the US had a pre-existing Delta wave in progress, though that doesn't impact the process I described above.
I don't think the evidence we have now points to Omicron being less pathogenic than early versions of Covid. There does seem to be relatively good evidence that is is less pathogenic than Delta, but we seem to have forgotten that Delta was a big step up from earlier variants and the original strain. In the face of so much talk about how mild Omicron is, I think it's important to bear the context in mind. Let's hope that the lower replication in lung cells turns out to be more significant than it looks from the hospitalization data we have to date.
From the New York Times article linked above:
The reason that Omicron is milder may be a matter of anatomy. Dr. Diamond and his colleagues found that the level of Omicron in the noses of the hamsters was the same as in animals infected with an earlier form of the coronavirus. But Omicron levels in the lungs were one-tenth or less of the level of other variants.
A similar finding came from researchers at the University of Hong Kong who studied bits of tissue taken from human airways during surgery. In 12 lung samples, the researchers found that Omicron grew more slowly than Delta and other variants did.
Also, this study in South Africa compared the Omicron wave to earlier waves: study link. Of course, pre-existing immunity certainly was a factor, but combined with animal studies and other observations around the world, the evidence is adding up.
posted by eagles123 at 12:14 AM on January 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
From a theoretical perspective, a virus can be both super successful at replicating itself and have quite a high death rate if it has a long period where host organisms are infectious but pre-symptomatic. One non-theoretical/concrete example of this is HIV. Other comments above have also linked to virologists explaining why COVID, which also has a pre-symptomatic infectious period, doesn’t necessarily face evolutionary pressure to become less severe.
Omicron changes the environment around it. Because Omicron infection also increases immunity to Delta, variants with mutations similar to Omicron outcompete variants without those mutations. That's why Omicron replaces Delta wherever it arrives, though the process isn't instantaneous. Unlike South Africa, the US had a pre-existing Delta wave in progress, though that doesn't impact the process I described above.
I don't think the evidence we have now points to Omicron being less pathogenic than early versions of Covid. There does seem to be relatively good evidence that is is less pathogenic than Delta, but we seem to have forgotten that Delta was a big step up from earlier variants and the original strain. In the face of so much talk about how mild Omicron is, I think it's important to bear the context in mind. Let's hope that the lower replication in lung cells turns out to be more significant than it looks from the hospitalization data we have to date.
From the New York Times article linked above:
The reason that Omicron is milder may be a matter of anatomy. Dr. Diamond and his colleagues found that the level of Omicron in the noses of the hamsters was the same as in animals infected with an earlier form of the coronavirus. But Omicron levels in the lungs were one-tenth or less of the level of other variants.
A similar finding came from researchers at the University of Hong Kong who studied bits of tissue taken from human airways during surgery. In 12 lung samples, the researchers found that Omicron grew more slowly than Delta and other variants did.
Also, this study in South Africa compared the Omicron wave to earlier waves: study link. Of course, pre-existing immunity certainly was a factor, but combined with animal studies and other observations around the world, the evidence is adding up.
posted by eagles123 at 12:14 AM on January 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
NSW's daily confirmed case count is down by 19% today, but that's just the Trump Effect of test counts being down by 25%. Hospitalizations are up from 901 to 1066 and the test positivity rate is 20%. Five days ago it was 7%. This outbreak is so much more widespread than the official numbers make it look, and hospital overwhelm is now an absolute certainty.
Is the NSW political class doing anything about that? No. Because what can they do? There are simply not enough qualified people available to deal with this, and those who do have the skills are already literally killing themselves with overwork.
And all of it could have been avoided if our country's PM had half the nous of the Western Australian Premier from the get-go.
posted by flabdablet at 12:37 AM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
Is the NSW political class doing anything about that? No. Because what can they do? There are simply not enough qualified people available to deal with this, and those who do have the skills are already literally killing themselves with overwork.
And all of it could have been avoided if our country's PM had half the nous of the Western Australian Premier from the get-go.
posted by flabdablet at 12:37 AM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
It never made sense to treat a respiratory epidemic as anything other than airborne unless and until studies show otherwise. Australia should have been able to stand up purpose-built, properly secure quarantine accommodation with ventilation systems adequate to suppress aerosol spread a lot faster than it has, instead of continuing to rely on the manifestly inadequate hotel wish-it-was-quarantine system that's been the progenitor of every current case.
Elimination is the only workable strategy for dealing with a novel, imported respiratory disease accidentally imported to an island continent and this has always been obvious to anybody who does grok exponential growth and decay.
None of this is hindsight. I've been saying these things since the Ruby Princess debacle, and the total failure of this country's flabby, useless, fossil-fuel-addled conservative leadership to behave as if these trivially obvious truths are obviously true unless doing so involves no spending is part and parcel of what's been making me furious about them for decades.
posted by flabdablet at 1:01 AM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
Elimination is the only workable strategy for dealing with a novel, imported respiratory disease accidentally imported to an island continent and this has always been obvious to anybody who does grok exponential growth and decay.
None of this is hindsight. I've been saying these things since the Ruby Princess debacle, and the total failure of this country's flabby, useless, fossil-fuel-addled conservative leadership to behave as if these trivially obvious truths are obviously true unless doing so involves no spending is part and parcel of what's been making me furious about them for decades.
posted by flabdablet at 1:01 AM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
I was exposed to Omicron the other day [...] 6 feet [...]Hey, just a PSA that 6 feet of distance isn't too effective unless you're in a place with extremely good ventilation.
Sure, but in a checkout line it's gonna be impossible and it's only for a couple minutes besides. Of course the best practice is to stay home.
And if you've been exposed, I'd stay home until testing negative.
I hadn't been. I lied in order to make the point and to get them tf away from me.
posted by rhizome at 1:47 AM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
The infectivity of omicron is theorised to come from horizontal gene transfer in someone infected with covid and another virus in someone who is immunosuppressed; is it possible that delta and omicron could recombine in someone?
posted by Marticus at 2:05 AM on January 2, 2022
posted by Marticus at 2:05 AM on January 2, 2022
is it possible that delta and omicron could recombine in someone?
Yep. My molecular biology background didn’t include studying virology specifically, so I have a general impression that recombination between viruses in a given individual is significantly less likely than mutation of just the one virus, but I’m definitely not an expert in the area so don’t take that as established fact. As with mutations, most recombinations between entirely different viruses would likely not yield a survivable change in a virus. We’d need to ask a relevant expert for educated guesses on what a combo of delta and omicron variants of the same sars-cov2 virus could be like, though.
posted by eviemath at 6:20 AM on January 2, 2022
Yep. My molecular biology background didn’t include studying virology specifically, so I have a general impression that recombination between viruses in a given individual is significantly less likely than mutation of just the one virus, but I’m definitely not an expert in the area so don’t take that as established fact. As with mutations, most recombinations between entirely different viruses would likely not yield a survivable change in a virus. We’d need to ask a relevant expert for educated guesses on what a combo of delta and omicron variants of the same sars-cov2 virus could be like, though.
posted by eviemath at 6:20 AM on January 2, 2022
Anything is possible, its just vanishingly unlikely to produce virus that is "better" in some way that out-competes Omicron.
Luckily for the virus we're letting it roll a few million genetic dice in however many tens of millions of people.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:21 AM on January 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
Luckily for the virus we're letting it roll a few million genetic dice in however many tens of millions of people.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:21 AM on January 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
The football team at my university employer just played a college bowl game in an enclosed stadium. Almost no one in the stands and none of the athletic staff had masks on (from what I could see on TV). I had to turn it off after realizing what a super spreader event this is likely to be. My university already pushed back the vaccine mandate deadline before Christmas break, is not requiring re-entry testing, and hasn't yet delayed plans for in-person instruction. I am far more risk tolerant than most people lately, having worked on-site for nearly the entire pandemic, but even this has kind of sent me into a panic tailspin. My place of work has always been slow on any proactive measures, but this really takes the cake. Good luck to all my fellow education workers out there, this semester might be the one that breaks everyone who's been hanging tough until now.
posted by mostly vowels at 9:38 AM on January 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by mostly vowels at 9:38 AM on January 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
Twitter Permanently Suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Account
Twitter on Sunday permanently suspended the personal account of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican of Georgia, after the company said she had violated its Covid-19 misinformation policies.
Twitter suspended Ms. Greene’s account after she tweeted on Saturday, falsely, about “extremely high amounts of Covid vaccine deaths.” She included a misleading chart that pulled information from a government database of unverified raw data called the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, a decades-old system that relies on self-reported cases from patients and health care providers.
Twitter said that Ms. Greene had a fifth “strike,” which meant that her account will not be restored.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:59 AM on January 2, 2022 [36 favorites]
Twitter on Sunday permanently suspended the personal account of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican of Georgia, after the company said she had violated its Covid-19 misinformation policies.
Twitter suspended Ms. Greene’s account after she tweeted on Saturday, falsely, about “extremely high amounts of Covid vaccine deaths.” She included a misleading chart that pulled information from a government database of unverified raw data called the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, a decades-old system that relies on self-reported cases from patients and health care providers.
Twitter said that Ms. Greene had a fifth “strike,” which meant that her account will not be restored.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:59 AM on January 2, 2022 [36 favorites]
That's a pretty solid start by 2022 at cleaning up 2021's mess. Let's see whether it sustains.
posted by flabdablet at 10:16 AM on January 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 10:16 AM on January 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
I got my PCR test results back last night: negative, once again. So, despite having suspicious symptoms at the right time (fatigue, irritated sinuses, occasional tickle in my throat) and getting tested when they were active, it seems that I had something else going on, which I'll gladly accept.
But I had a moral dilemma on Friday. While my symptoms (such as they were) were absent, I was still waiting for the results of my PCR test that I'd scheduled as a precaution. I'd spent the holidays with elderly relatives upstate, an area where masking and not eating-in at restaurants and similar precautions are Somebody Else's Problem, so I figured that finding out if I'd been exposed there would be a priority and scheduled one for after my return.
I had rent to drop off at the antique store that I'm part of, and a quick errand to pick something up after that. And I wondered... do I go? Am I an asymptomatic carrier? If I do this, am I actively being part of the problem? If I don't, am I being unreasonably paranoid?
My wife and I went. I wore two masks, a cloth one under a tighter-fitting one, and decided that I would make my appearance brief and straightforward. And when I got there, the shop owner (a person who is vaxxed and boosted, but who has retail customers walking in and out and interacting with her all day) was unmasked. Every other customer in the place but one was unmasked. My wife told me that while she was updating her jewelry in our case, someone walked by, noted the mask on her face and muttered, "There's always _one_" in her direction.
I am tired of taking reasonable precautions. I will continue to take them, as that is the right thing for me to do, and I would not have others suffer due to my actions. But I am even more tired of otherwise at-least-somewhat-rational people around me who watch me taking precautions and either openly ignore them or mock them.
posted by delfin at 10:35 AM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
But I had a moral dilemma on Friday. While my symptoms (such as they were) were absent, I was still waiting for the results of my PCR test that I'd scheduled as a precaution. I'd spent the holidays with elderly relatives upstate, an area where masking and not eating-in at restaurants and similar precautions are Somebody Else's Problem, so I figured that finding out if I'd been exposed there would be a priority and scheduled one for after my return.
I had rent to drop off at the antique store that I'm part of, and a quick errand to pick something up after that. And I wondered... do I go? Am I an asymptomatic carrier? If I do this, am I actively being part of the problem? If I don't, am I being unreasonably paranoid?
My wife and I went. I wore two masks, a cloth one under a tighter-fitting one, and decided that I would make my appearance brief and straightforward. And when I got there, the shop owner (a person who is vaxxed and boosted, but who has retail customers walking in and out and interacting with her all day) was unmasked. Every other customer in the place but one was unmasked. My wife told me that while she was updating her jewelry in our case, someone walked by, noted the mask on her face and muttered, "There's always _one_" in her direction.
I am tired of taking reasonable precautions. I will continue to take them, as that is the right thing for me to do, and I would not have others suffer due to my actions. But I am even more tired of otherwise at-least-somewhat-rational people around me who watch me taking precautions and either openly ignore them or mock them.
posted by delfin at 10:35 AM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
I am even more tired of otherwise at-least-somewhat-rational people around me who watch me taking precautions and either openly ignore them or mock them.
Way I see it, the fuckheads who cop that attitude are at least fifty times as likely to die of this filthy disease as I am, so whenever one of them gets in my face purely to piss me off I remind myself of that and bask in self-righteous statistical schadenfreude.
Thinking "fuck off and die" about and toward somebody publicly advertising their own death cult membership probably makes me a terrible person.
I can live with that.
posted by flabdablet at 10:41 AM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
Way I see it, the fuckheads who cop that attitude are at least fifty times as likely to die of this filthy disease as I am, so whenever one of them gets in my face purely to piss me off I remind myself of that and bask in self-righteous statistical schadenfreude.
Thinking "fuck off and die" about and toward somebody publicly advertising their own death cult membership probably makes me a terrible person.
I can live with that.
posted by flabdablet at 10:41 AM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
The mockers, the haters, the anti-vax Trumpoids, the shit-stirrers on social media? Yeah. There is a part of me that just thinks, "Fuck 'em." Even though my own 70-something mother is among their number, and her 70-something husband with one lung left from cancer who "has his bottle of Hydroxychloroquine, just in case."
But I expect that from them, and I should be better than that.
It's my in-laws on the other side, both in their 70s, who are vaxxed and boosted but go around maskless despite local hospitals filling up rapidly. It's my obese niece on that side, who is still unvaxxed because she's terrified of its side effects and is only now talking about making an appointment for her first shot. It's the nice lady at the antique shop who'd never hurt a fly, whom I've had a good working relationship with for years, who's thoughtful and kind in all ways but is sitting there right now unmasked greeting unmasked customers, with a newspaper on her desk whose front page blared recently how the local hospitals broke COVID admission records and now have no beds left.
It reminds me of my teenage self, asking my father to quit smoking two packs a day, only to watch his heart attacks at 51 firsthand.
posted by delfin at 10:55 AM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
But I expect that from them, and I should be better than that.
It's my in-laws on the other side, both in their 70s, who are vaxxed and boosted but go around maskless despite local hospitals filling up rapidly. It's my obese niece on that side, who is still unvaxxed because she's terrified of its side effects and is only now talking about making an appointment for her first shot. It's the nice lady at the antique shop who'd never hurt a fly, whom I've had a good working relationship with for years, who's thoughtful and kind in all ways but is sitting there right now unmasked greeting unmasked customers, with a newspaper on her desk whose front page blared recently how the local hospitals broke COVID admission records and now have no beds left.
It reminds me of my teenage self, asking my father to quit smoking two packs a day, only to watch his heart attacks at 51 firsthand.
posted by delfin at 10:55 AM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
But y’know, I heard it was mild so I’m sure we’re fine.
I still think that a 28% increase in hospitalization when there’s a 202% increase in confirmed cases over the past 14 days is decent news.
posted by hwyengr at 11:31 AM on January 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
I still think that a 28% increase in hospitalization when there’s a 202% increase in confirmed cases over the past 14 days is decent news.
posted by hwyengr at 11:31 AM on January 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
but if you want a real life example of a government that's made the freedom-safety tradeoff to keep Covid out, there it is and it's been interesting for me to see and consider.
I read an article years ago about China’s isolating and serious quarantining reaction to SARS 1, and realized then that if the epicenter of that one was anywhere else in the world, well, (waves arms generally around)
posted by hwyengr at 11:40 AM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
I read an article years ago about China’s isolating and serious quarantining reaction to SARS 1, and realized then that if the epicenter of that one was anywhere else in the world, well, (waves arms generally around)
posted by hwyengr at 11:40 AM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ugh this year already.
On the 26th my sister found out about exposure through her work. She and her husband had both been staying with our parents, arriving on the 24th and leaving on the 26th. They all had dinner at our home on Christmas Eve, and we were all together at my parents' home on Christmas Day.
Sister and husband left for the beach on the 26th and hunted for tests along the way, ending up at urgent care when my sister's symptoms came on. She was positive, but her husband was negative. Meanwhile, back at my parents' house, my vaccinated but un-boostered mom began feeling symptoms on the 27th and her oxygen levels dropped precipitously, landing her in the emergency room with the Omicron variant. She later went to intensive care and eventually a hospital room, but it's day five and she's been "supposed to be going home" for the last two days. She says she doesn't understand how she could have gotten so sick compared to my sister, but conceded she's 70 and it's probably her age. I gently reminded her that she also didn't get as much of the vaccine as the rest of the family did, and that gave her pause. But I have no reason to believe that she'll get the NEXT booster or whatever needs to be injected in everyone next.
My wife and I have consistently tested negative, so at least there's that.
posted by emelenjr at 12:25 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
On the 26th my sister found out about exposure through her work. She and her husband had both been staying with our parents, arriving on the 24th and leaving on the 26th. They all had dinner at our home on Christmas Eve, and we were all together at my parents' home on Christmas Day.
Sister and husband left for the beach on the 26th and hunted for tests along the way, ending up at urgent care when my sister's symptoms came on. She was positive, but her husband was negative. Meanwhile, back at my parents' house, my vaccinated but un-boostered mom began feeling symptoms on the 27th and her oxygen levels dropped precipitously, landing her in the emergency room with the Omicron variant. She later went to intensive care and eventually a hospital room, but it's day five and she's been "supposed to be going home" for the last two days. She says she doesn't understand how she could have gotten so sick compared to my sister, but conceded she's 70 and it's probably her age. I gently reminded her that she also didn't get as much of the vaccine as the rest of the family did, and that gave her pause. But I have no reason to believe that she'll get the NEXT booster or whatever needs to be injected in everyone next.
My wife and I have consistently tested negative, so at least there's that.
posted by emelenjr at 12:25 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
delfin, the next time someone says something, just tell them you have a friend with a transplant. Or a friend with cancer. We're all friends here, so among us you have both.
My little pharmacy in the blue part of a red town is kind of a wild west covid outpost, where even the pharmacist has never worn a mask except for once and it was down around his chin, and in November when I said I'd just wait outside because of the transplant, people actually masked up. I was astonished. I still waited outside, of course, but it was almost like magic. I'm curious to see if it would work elsewhere.
posted by mochapickle at 12:42 PM on January 2, 2022 [19 favorites]
My little pharmacy in the blue part of a red town is kind of a wild west covid outpost, where even the pharmacist has never worn a mask except for once and it was down around his chin, and in November when I said I'd just wait outside because of the transplant, people actually masked up. I was astonished. I still waited outside, of course, but it was almost like magic. I'm curious to see if it would work elsewhere.
posted by mochapickle at 12:42 PM on January 2, 2022 [19 favorites]
I read an article years ago about China’s isolating and serious quarantining reaction to SARS 1, and realized then that if the epicenter of that one was anywhere else in the world, well, (waves arms generally around)
But SARS 1 did spread around the world, most notably with hundreds of cases in Canada and also in other countries in Asia. The reason that we managed to stamp it out is probably mostly because with SARS 1, people got sick and then became very contagious days later, whereas with Covid, people often become contagious before they have symptoms or at the same time. This makes Covid a lot harder to control than SARS 1. We also had a death rate about ten times higher with SARS 1, which make it a lot less feasible to try to flatten the curve or control spread instead of going for eradication.
China's strong reaction to Covid (after the initial problems) was certainly informed by learnings from SARS 1 though. Maybe other countries could have benefitted from learnings from SARS 1 too.
posted by ssg at 1:58 PM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
But SARS 1 did spread around the world, most notably with hundreds of cases in Canada and also in other countries in Asia. The reason that we managed to stamp it out is probably mostly because with SARS 1, people got sick and then became very contagious days later, whereas with Covid, people often become contagious before they have symptoms or at the same time. This makes Covid a lot harder to control than SARS 1. We also had a death rate about ten times higher with SARS 1, which make it a lot less feasible to try to flatten the curve or control spread instead of going for eradication.
China's strong reaction to Covid (after the initial problems) was certainly informed by learnings from SARS 1 though. Maybe other countries could have benefitted from learnings from SARS 1 too.
posted by ssg at 1:58 PM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm burying my father tomorrow. And when I was at church today. One of his friends was going back to the whole dying of covid vs. dying with covid. I feigned having to go to the bathroom and walked away. I seriously can't take this anymore. I have to go back to work next week. As far as I know most of the other teachers are vaccinated and the one who wasn't caused us to shut down the first 2 weeks of December. But I'm around kids too young to be vaccinated (I work with the under 2 crowd) and the vast majority of the kids in the center are under 5, so also not eligible . I don't know how many of our small group of school agers have been vaccinated.
I'm so fucking tired. I think part of it is still getting over my covid infection. But all the decisions I've had to make the last week have left me with -47 spoons.
posted by kathrynm at 2:49 PM on January 2, 2022 [40 favorites]
I'm so fucking tired. I think part of it is still getting over my covid infection. But all the decisions I've had to make the last week have left me with -47 spoons.
posted by kathrynm at 2:49 PM on January 2, 2022 [40 favorites]
One of his friends was going back to the whole dying of covid vs. dying with covid.
And the double standard that almost always accompanies this line, where the clown car occupant in question immediately goes on to misconstrue published stats about deaths after vaccination as referring to deaths from vaccination, is particularly infuriating.
If there were any way that I could gift you some spoons, I would; you shouldn't need to be putting up with this shit.
posted by flabdablet at 3:07 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
And the double standard that almost always accompanies this line, where the clown car occupant in question immediately goes on to misconstrue published stats about deaths after vaccination as referring to deaths from vaccination, is particularly infuriating.
If there were any way that I could gift you some spoons, I would; you shouldn't need to be putting up with this shit.
posted by flabdablet at 3:07 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
Maryland is now at it’s highest acute case hospital occupancy, with 430 adult ICU beds also occupied.
Top of the wave for the first wave was ~620, this time last year was ~460, and we are NOT AT THE TOP OF THE CASE WAVE. At best these are numbers which are resulting from a week ago. Worst case, two weeks ago.
Given how rapidly cases spiked, the two weeks number is pants shittingly bad but I guess we’ll know for sure in about 5 days.
posted by Slackermagee at 3:15 PM on January 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
Top of the wave for the first wave was ~620, this time last year was ~460, and we are NOT AT THE TOP OF THE CASE WAVE. At best these are numbers which are resulting from a week ago. Worst case, two weeks ago.
Given how rapidly cases spiked, the two weeks number is pants shittingly bad but I guess we’ll know for sure in about 5 days.
posted by Slackermagee at 3:15 PM on January 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
Today's figures for NSW are out. Test positivity rate still climbing, now over 21% (20,794 new cases from 96,765 tests) and hospitalizations are up again to 1,204 with 95 in ICU.
At the very peak of the Delta wave, NSW had 1,268 in hospital with 242 in ICU. If Omicron doesn't blow past both those numbers by next Monday I'll be very surprised.
posted by flabdablet at 3:53 PM on January 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
At the very peak of the Delta wave, NSW had 1,268 in hospital with 242 in ICU. If Omicron doesn't blow past both those numbers by next Monday I'll be very surprised.
posted by flabdablet at 3:53 PM on January 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
We just got through Christmas, shopping for Christmas, getting together with families for Christmas, New Year's Eve with all of the gatherings and drinking and debauchery that that implies, and 30% of America proudly declaring I'M NOT GOING TO LET SO-CALLED 'DOCTOR' FAUCI BAN CHRISTMAS FOR MY FAMILY to anyone who would listen.
The fun is just beginning.
posted by delfin at 4:02 PM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
The fun is just beginning.
posted by delfin at 4:02 PM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
One of his friends was going back to the whole dying of covid vs. dying with covid.
“Were there comorbidities?” is the new, “What was she wearing?”
I have had a few people I know contract the virus (including my aunt, my cousin, and my cousin’s two young kids just this last week) but I am happy to report no one close to me has died from it (or with it, for that matter).
On the other hand, in the last eighteen months, I lost one good friend to cancer and my next-door neighbour to a heart attack, and I miss them both every day. I grew tired of anonymous internet trollbots telling me that if course both deaths were counted as COVID (neither one had the virus) and of course the families were issued death certificates that did not say this, because that’s how high up the conspiracy goes.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:37 PM on January 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
“Were there comorbidities?” is the new, “What was she wearing?”
I have had a few people I know contract the virus (including my aunt, my cousin, and my cousin’s two young kids just this last week) but I am happy to report no one close to me has died from it (or with it, for that matter).
On the other hand, in the last eighteen months, I lost one good friend to cancer and my next-door neighbour to a heart attack, and I miss them both every day. I grew tired of anonymous internet trollbots telling me that if course both deaths were counted as COVID (neither one had the virus) and of course the families were issued death certificates that did not say this, because that’s how high up the conspiracy goes.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:37 PM on January 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
I.e. the fact that we do not see elephants hiding in trees merely demonstrates how fiendishly good they are at hiding in trees.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:39 PM on January 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:39 PM on January 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
As long as we never start testing trees for elephants, we'll be fine.
posted by flabdablet at 5:18 PM on January 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 5:18 PM on January 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
Strangely, until about November-December our family hadn't known anybody among our close friends who had covid. Then in the past couple of months, at least four families among our social circle all got it. Everybody has been fine so far, vaccinated or not, which was a significant relief; as expected, the children have weathered it best of all.
This spike roughly corresponded with the recent run-up in cases in our area (central OH - 40 positive tests per 100K population per day, rising to about 140). Of course, this paralleled similar rises in positive tests in other areas in the US and worldwide.
posted by theorique at 5:37 PM on January 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
This spike roughly corresponded with the recent run-up in cases in our area (central OH - 40 positive tests per 100K population per day, rising to about 140). Of course, this paralleled similar rises in positive tests in other areas in the US and worldwide.
posted by theorique at 5:37 PM on January 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Americans should focus less on the skyrocketing number of coronavirus infections and more on the number of hospitalizations and deaths, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”"Hospitalization rates will be the true test of Omicron, Fauci says." NY Times, Jan 2 2021
A seven-day daily average of just under 387,000 cases was being reported nationally, a 202 percent increase over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Hospitalizations were up only 30 percent, however, to an average of 90,000 a day, while deaths had dropped 4 percent to an average of 1,240 daily.
Dr. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, noted that many new infections, especially in people who are vaccinated and boosted, result in no symptoms or mild symptoms, making the absolute number of cases less important than they were for previous versions of the virus.
“As you get further on and the infections become less severe, it is much more relevant to focus on the hospitalizations as opposed to the total number of cases,” Dr. Fauci said.
That advice is in keeping with what many epidemiologists have said all along. Despite the daily drumbeat of case counts, the number of positive tests has never been a perfect indicator of the course of the epidemic.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 6:13 PM on January 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
My son had Omicron in December, in Toronto. On the 22nd he said that he was sicker than he had ever been in his life, and was nearly in fear of his life, but he refused to go to the ER saying that if and when he couldn't take care of himself he'd change his mind. The next day he was feeling better, but that night was grim and I didn't sleep a great deal. And that experience is only a slight fraction of what so many people are living through, especially in the States. I remain dumbfounded that there are vaccine refusers who have no reason other than stupid ideas about individual freedom. They are individually-freedoming themselves right into caskets. Why, for fuck's sake... I just don't understand (said in the same tone as the last line of Fargo).
posted by jokeefe at 6:43 PM on January 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by jokeefe at 6:43 PM on January 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Hospitalizations lag cases. I’m raging at Fauci saying that when he knows this is true.
This entire paragraph I’m gonna copy below is INSANE given that we know it goes cases, hospitalizations, deaths. You do NOT LOOK AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
A seven-day daily average of just under 387,000 cases was being reported nationally, a 202 percent increase over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Hospitalizations were up only 30 percent, however, to an average of 90,000 a day, while deaths had dropped 4 percent to an average of 1,240 daily.
How can the NYT still report it like this as if it is the same thing. Look at hospitalizations in 2-3 weeks and deaths further. You know what I see here? I look at where cases were 2-3 weeks ago and see now hospitalizations are up 30%. I then look at how cases are way higher right now and frown ahead with a butt clenching feeling at where hospitalizations will be in 2-3 weeks.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 6:55 PM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
This entire paragraph I’m gonna copy below is INSANE given that we know it goes cases, hospitalizations, deaths. You do NOT LOOK AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
A seven-day daily average of just under 387,000 cases was being reported nationally, a 202 percent increase over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Hospitalizations were up only 30 percent, however, to an average of 90,000 a day, while deaths had dropped 4 percent to an average of 1,240 daily.
How can the NYT still report it like this as if it is the same thing. Look at hospitalizations in 2-3 weeks and deaths further. You know what I see here? I look at where cases were 2-3 weeks ago and see now hospitalizations are up 30%. I then look at how cases are way higher right now and frown ahead with a butt clenching feeling at where hospitalizations will be in 2-3 weeks.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 6:55 PM on January 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
Even 30% seems like a problem in an overtaxed and exhausted health care system. This is presented as a good number and I don't think it's a good number.
posted by Mavri at 7:07 PM on January 2, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Mavri at 7:07 PM on January 2, 2022 [13 favorites]
It is not a good number, and I feel like I’m losing my mind also seeing it presented as one. Thank you for saying what was running in my mind and making me feel more sane.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:32 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:32 PM on January 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
In NYC, there are now more people hospitalized with Covid than there have been since the first wave (the number is three times what it was a month ago) — which is to be expected after the number of cases starting rising there very rapidly 2-3 weeks ago. Seems like counting the cases is kind of helpful in knowing what will happen in our hospitals in the future.
posted by ssg at 7:40 PM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by ssg at 7:40 PM on January 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
It might be a good number if we were, you know, looking back at this from the presumed safety of 2025 or some time like that and reading it as, "Fortunately, the 2021 holiday surge resulted in only a 30% increase in hospitalizations, which American hospitals were easily able to withstand."
Rather than being in the beginning stages of that surge, currently waiting to see the impact of millions of people gathering in large numbers for Christmas and New Year's and then going home to their families and their workplaces after widespread exposure to an extremely contagious respiratory illness, making it that much harder for the vulnerable to stand any chance of avoiding it in the weeks to come.
Or if 30% of the US population did not adamantly insist upon remaining vulnerable.
Or if many hospitals weren't already full before that holiday surge.
Now, I didn't hear Fauci's actual voice when he said that. It might _not_ have been in a plaintive "...Please clap" kind of voice.
posted by delfin at 7:47 PM on January 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Rather than being in the beginning stages of that surge, currently waiting to see the impact of millions of people gathering in large numbers for Christmas and New Year's and then going home to their families and their workplaces after widespread exposure to an extremely contagious respiratory illness, making it that much harder for the vulnerable to stand any chance of avoiding it in the weeks to come.
Or if 30% of the US population did not adamantly insist upon remaining vulnerable.
Or if many hospitals weren't already full before that holiday surge.
Now, I didn't hear Fauci's actual voice when he said that. It might _not_ have been in a plaintive "...Please clap" kind of voice.
posted by delfin at 7:47 PM on January 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
I just want to thank the people in here who are expressing concern for those of us with complicating conditions. I'm in the unenviable position of having gotten the first vaccine shots, then guillain barre syndrome (from which I'm still recovering) before the booster became available and before omicron. CDC says people with a history of GBS should still get vaccinated, but having a history of GBS gets you turned away from the actual shot, so I both need to get it, can't get it, and can't get a medical exemption, at least until something changes. There are so few cases of GBS worldwide that there cannot even be a study done that has any real significance.
GBS can paralyze your diaphragm, an organ frequently used for breathing. (You might even be using yours right now!) Breathing, it turns out, is also a thing that COVID infection can be bad for. GBS is often triggered by viral infections. I still need to get groceries sometimes. People running around without masks and / or unvaccinated are trying to kill me. It's really not theoretical - I'm right fucking here.
I guess I'm just screaming into the void at this point. So, I dunno. You folks who are doing the right things, and advocating on behalf of people like me, thank you. It's nice knowing that some people don't think my choking to death on a respirator is "acceptable collateral damage" for "the economy" to keep "functioning".
posted by mrgoat at 7:57 PM on January 2, 2022 [47 favorites]
GBS can paralyze your diaphragm, an organ frequently used for breathing. (You might even be using yours right now!) Breathing, it turns out, is also a thing that COVID infection can be bad for. GBS is often triggered by viral infections. I still need to get groceries sometimes. People running around without masks and / or unvaccinated are trying to kill me. It's really not theoretical - I'm right fucking here.
I guess I'm just screaming into the void at this point. So, I dunno. You folks who are doing the right things, and advocating on behalf of people like me, thank you. It's nice knowing that some people don't think my choking to death on a respirator is "acceptable collateral damage" for "the economy" to keep "functioning".
posted by mrgoat at 7:57 PM on January 2, 2022 [47 favorites]
Perhaps because omicron may have a shorter incubation period, the lag time we've seen between positive cases and hospitalizations could also be shorter, which in turn would seem to indicate lower hospitalization rates relative to positives? We probably won't know for sure for a few more weeks though.
My county has twice the number of active cases as of today than any other time during the pandemic. Hospitalizations are at about half what they were at the peak in Jan 2021, but they are rising steadily. What's really shocking is the positivity rate is now twice what is was at the Jan 2021 peak and the positivity delta between days has also been rising steadily. Anecdotally, we're finally seeing for the first time friends who are vaxxed and boosted getting breakthroughs, but thankfully no hospitalizations yet.
posted by gwint at 8:03 PM on January 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
My county has twice the number of active cases as of today than any other time during the pandemic. Hospitalizations are at about half what they were at the peak in Jan 2021, but they are rising steadily. What's really shocking is the positivity rate is now twice what is was at the Jan 2021 peak and the positivity delta between days has also been rising steadily. Anecdotally, we're finally seeing for the first time friends who are vaxxed and boosted getting breakthroughs, but thankfully no hospitalizations yet.
posted by gwint at 8:03 PM on January 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Mrgoat, that is terrible.
Our daughter got Immune thrombocytopenia (your immune system decides to kill your platelets), most likely from her MMR shot, it's rare but common enough that's it's been identified by the hematologist who saw her as the most likely cause. It sucks to be on the bad side of probability. We got lucky, it resolved without further complications, and luckily what got us to bring her to the hospital (an unreasonable amount of bruises) wasn't too bad, and she recovered without further complications (other than a cancelled trip to Mexico [pre-covid], I'm good with it, it's a trade off I'd make any day).
We'll do all her other shots since there's no reason to avoid them, it's a rare side effect of that one, but we'll watch her very closely (we know the symptoms now) just to be on the safe side.
Why am I telling you this? Just to say that vaccin are important and we're trying to have your back, and everybody else's.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:24 PM on January 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
Our daughter got Immune thrombocytopenia (your immune system decides to kill your platelets), most likely from her MMR shot, it's rare but common enough that's it's been identified by the hematologist who saw her as the most likely cause. It sucks to be on the bad side of probability. We got lucky, it resolved without further complications, and luckily what got us to bring her to the hospital (an unreasonable amount of bruises) wasn't too bad, and she recovered without further complications (other than a cancelled trip to Mexico [pre-covid], I'm good with it, it's a trade off I'd make any day).
We'll do all her other shots since there's no reason to avoid them, it's a rare side effect of that one, but we'll watch her very closely (we know the symptoms now) just to be on the safe side.
Why am I telling you this? Just to say that vaccin are important and we're trying to have your back, and everybody else's.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:24 PM on January 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
I’m raging at Fauci saying that when he knows this is true.
This is the last thing I’m going to say in this thread. When you’re angry at Dr. Fauci, who throughout this entire pandemic has been a very reliable source of information and guidance, maybe your gut instincts on the trends aren’t correct.
posted by hwyengr at 8:25 PM on January 2, 2022 [13 favorites]
This is the last thing I’m going to say in this thread. When you’re angry at Dr. Fauci, who throughout this entire pandemic has been a very reliable source of information and guidance, maybe your gut instincts on the trends aren’t correct.
posted by hwyengr at 8:25 PM on January 2, 2022 [13 favorites]
mrgoat, I'm so sorry there are people in your orbit who are behaving so callously.
I have always been incredibly lucky with my health. I used to never bother with flu shots because I never got sick - then I read Why We Immunize: Teeny Tiny Headstones, and that turned me into a "I would like my flu vaccine right away please" person every year.
I'm pretty worried about getting covid, but statistically speaking I'd be likely to have one of the milder cases.
I want you to know - as WaterAndPixels says - we have your back. I want you to survive this horrifying pandemic with as much of your health and all the good things in your life intact as much as possible.
I was happy to get vaccinated for myself, but also very much for everyone who can't, or who faces obstacles, whether that's being 4 years old or not being able to risk time off work or GBS.
For every callous person who is willing to jeopardize your health, please remember there are two of us out here who care about you and everyone at greater risk, twice as many of us who want us all to get through this together, and who believe in caring for the wellbeing of the community - of every single individual within the community.
I'm so sorry you haven't been able to get vaccinated, and I hope something changes SOON for folks with GBS, and anyone else who wants a vaccine but can't yet get one.
posted by kristi at 11:19 PM on January 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
I have always been incredibly lucky with my health. I used to never bother with flu shots because I never got sick - then I read Why We Immunize: Teeny Tiny Headstones, and that turned me into a "I would like my flu vaccine right away please" person every year.
I'm pretty worried about getting covid, but statistically speaking I'd be likely to have one of the milder cases.
I want you to know - as WaterAndPixels says - we have your back. I want you to survive this horrifying pandemic with as much of your health and all the good things in your life intact as much as possible.
I was happy to get vaccinated for myself, but also very much for everyone who can't, or who faces obstacles, whether that's being 4 years old or not being able to risk time off work or GBS.
For every callous person who is willing to jeopardize your health, please remember there are two of us out here who care about you and everyone at greater risk, twice as many of us who want us all to get through this together, and who believe in caring for the wellbeing of the community - of every single individual within the community.
I'm so sorry you haven't been able to get vaccinated, and I hope something changes SOON for folks with GBS, and anyone else who wants a vaccine but can't yet get one.
posted by kristi at 11:19 PM on January 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
It is very frustrating to watch the case numbers climb so rapidly.
Like everyone, I hope it will result in lower hospitalisation and death. But the Australian hospital numbers are climbing, and nobody here has immunity from the virus first time round.
But, you know, we could try a little bit to slow down case growth in case it turns out omicron is still serious just faster to transmit, and slower to hospitalize, or produces higher rates of long covid, or whatever.
The whole double down that “it will be fine” is so far away from prudent risk management.
Anyway. In my house we got to have our Xmas with the 90+ yro who I really love, who is vaccinated and boosted, and touched when she found out we all organised rapid tests before meeting up.
We had a very quiet NYE outside, with another couple who are covid smart, outdoors.
I wear the N95 as I dash in and out of the shops, and am on my long annual holiday. Luckily, the otherwise inert politicians went back to indoor masks, so everyone else is wearing a mask too.
When I discussed the local case numbers with our teenagers, they responded with “so we have to stay in and be careful.” And they are booked for boosters.
Except for the minority of covid deniers and anti-vax folk, the general vibe seems to be “Yeah, the government seems to have gone missing in action.”
Since I’m no fan of the neo-liberals in charge, I’m stoking that fire.
Shame that I’ll miss the cricket, I think I’d go if it was not requiring too much close people on the journey there and back, as I suspect actually sitting out in the open air is pretty safe, but my friend I go with cracked a couple of ribs last month in a biking collision, and I can’t imagine a worse set up for a persistent cough.
The biggest burden is my partner going a bit stir crazy as they just want to get out of the house and do summer things, but they have a job where getting covid means no money and letting pregnant (and often unvaccinated) people down, so they are sensible, just cranky.
I’m really angry that the decision was made to throw people who are otherwise sensible, under the bus - I’m thinking of an older woman I know who is allergic to a vaccine ingredient, and a friend who is immunosuppressive because of her cancer treatment.
i think the government line is they should be isolated from others forever. But it isn’t actually spoken.
And our prime minister has said it would be unfair to provide suitable testing, as selling the tests is the right of retailers. I can’t imagine how that ever withstood a moment of polling scrutiny, but that is what we have.
I guess, in time, I’ll get covid, and I certainly don’t look forward to getting sick, and I don’t have any confidence it will them magically make me immune from getting it again.
But if everyone gets sick this month, it will be grim times indeed.
It is like the men making the decisions have only ever been ill when there is a Mum or wife to care for them. They seem unaware there might be a downside to everybody getting sick at once for a few months.
We’ve got the food in the cupboard and freezer, a few weeks of toilet paper and medicines, and a plan to fence of half the house if somebody gets sick. I’m OK, I guess, just let down its back to this TWO YEARS on.
posted by bystander at 11:39 PM on January 2, 2022 [11 favorites]
Like everyone, I hope it will result in lower hospitalisation and death. But the Australian hospital numbers are climbing, and nobody here has immunity from the virus first time round.
But, you know, we could try a little bit to slow down case growth in case it turns out omicron is still serious just faster to transmit, and slower to hospitalize, or produces higher rates of long covid, or whatever.
The whole double down that “it will be fine” is so far away from prudent risk management.
Anyway. In my house we got to have our Xmas with the 90+ yro who I really love, who is vaccinated and boosted, and touched when she found out we all organised rapid tests before meeting up.
We had a very quiet NYE outside, with another couple who are covid smart, outdoors.
I wear the N95 as I dash in and out of the shops, and am on my long annual holiday. Luckily, the otherwise inert politicians went back to indoor masks, so everyone else is wearing a mask too.
When I discussed the local case numbers with our teenagers, they responded with “so we have to stay in and be careful.” And they are booked for boosters.
Except for the minority of covid deniers and anti-vax folk, the general vibe seems to be “Yeah, the government seems to have gone missing in action.”
Since I’m no fan of the neo-liberals in charge, I’m stoking that fire.
Shame that I’ll miss the cricket, I think I’d go if it was not requiring too much close people on the journey there and back, as I suspect actually sitting out in the open air is pretty safe, but my friend I go with cracked a couple of ribs last month in a biking collision, and I can’t imagine a worse set up for a persistent cough.
The biggest burden is my partner going a bit stir crazy as they just want to get out of the house and do summer things, but they have a job where getting covid means no money and letting pregnant (and often unvaccinated) people down, so they are sensible, just cranky.
I’m really angry that the decision was made to throw people who are otherwise sensible, under the bus - I’m thinking of an older woman I know who is allergic to a vaccine ingredient, and a friend who is immunosuppressive because of her cancer treatment.
i think the government line is they should be isolated from others forever. But it isn’t actually spoken.
And our prime minister has said it would be unfair to provide suitable testing, as selling the tests is the right of retailers. I can’t imagine how that ever withstood a moment of polling scrutiny, but that is what we have.
I guess, in time, I’ll get covid, and I certainly don’t look forward to getting sick, and I don’t have any confidence it will them magically make me immune from getting it again.
But if everyone gets sick this month, it will be grim times indeed.
It is like the men making the decisions have only ever been ill when there is a Mum or wife to care for them. They seem unaware there might be a downside to everybody getting sick at once for a few months.
We’ve got the food in the cupboard and freezer, a few weeks of toilet paper and medicines, and a plan to fence of half the house if somebody gets sick. I’m OK, I guess, just let down its back to this TWO YEARS on.
posted by bystander at 11:39 PM on January 2, 2022 [11 favorites]
our prime minister has said it would be unfair to provide suitable testing, as selling the tests is the right of retailers
thereby revealing himself yet again as the anencephalic Institute of Public Affairs glove puppet we've always known him to be. I keep on believing there's no way I could possibly get more disappointed and enraged by this gutless glad handing happy clappy lying useless petty smirking shitstain we have instead of a PM but he keeps finding ways to make it happen.
posted by flabdablet at 12:09 AM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
thereby revealing himself yet again as the anencephalic Institute of Public Affairs glove puppet we've always known him to be. I keep on believing there's no way I could possibly get more disappointed and enraged by this gutless glad handing happy clappy lying useless petty smirking shitstain we have instead of a PM but he keeps finding ways to make it happen.
posted by flabdablet at 12:09 AM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
When you’re angry at Dr. Fauci, who throughout this entire pandemic has been a very reliable source of information and guidance, maybe your gut instincts on the trends aren’t correct.
Or maybe you might want to consider redirecting that anger toward a commercial media sector increasingly devoted to undermining competent, devoted public servants with nuance-stripped reportage consistently edited and framed in ways designed to maximise outrage rather than clarity.
posted by flabdablet at 12:24 AM on January 3, 2022 [12 favorites]
Or maybe you might want to consider redirecting that anger toward a commercial media sector increasingly devoted to undermining competent, devoted public servants with nuance-stripped reportage consistently edited and framed in ways designed to maximise outrage rather than clarity.
posted by flabdablet at 12:24 AM on January 3, 2022 [12 favorites]
When you’re angry at Dr. Fauci, who throughout this entire pandemic has been a very reliable source of information and guidance, maybe your gut instincts on the trends aren’t correct.Here's Fauci defending the CDC's reckless and unscientific decision to tell vaccinated people they don't need to wear masks as Delta started to take off in July
Here's Fauci defending the CDC's reckless and unscientific decision to tell people they only need to isolate for 5 days after Covid infection as Omicron started to take off in December
I remember that he defended some bad Trump administration decisions too but I think he was doing that to avoid being replaced in his job by someone much worse so it is more understandable.
The man is a bureaucrat and not a scientist, and he's willing to carry water for awful people who value the economy over human lives.
posted by zymil at 1:39 AM on January 3, 2022 [10 favorites]
thereby revealing himself yet again as the anencephalic Institute of Public Affairs glove puppet we've always known him to be
And, of course, being 'straya, the policy is bipartisan, because small-target and/or regulatory capture.
posted by acb at 2:36 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
And, of course, being 'straya, the policy is bipartisan, because small-target and/or regulatory capture.
posted by acb at 2:36 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
Let us consider leaving behind the topic of Fauci in this thread filled with exhausted, sad, and disappointed fellow MeFites. Thanks for the link to Why We Immunize, kristi!
posted by Bella Donna at 2:38 AM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 2:38 AM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
being 'straya, the policy is bipartisan, because small-target and/or regulatory capture
Shit vs Shit Lite
posted by flabdablet at 2:49 AM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Shit vs Shit Lite
posted by flabdablet at 2:49 AM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
NYC schools are at 10x the positivity rate that caused them to close down last year. Nevertheless, the march back to school begins. What a disaster.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 4:31 AM on January 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 4:31 AM on January 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
U.S. state of Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan -- "8 percent of the population that has not been vaccinated is responsible for 75 percent of all the people who are filling up our covid beds."
posted by PhineasGage at 6:54 AM on January 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 6:54 AM on January 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Many people coughing in my office. Been here about 30 minutes. The guy who made us all be here even though our office suspended in-person? He's coughing.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:07 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:07 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
I was happy to get vaccinated for myself, but also very much for everyone who can't, or who faces obstacles, whether that's being 4 years old or not being able to risk time off work or GBS.
Precisely. My mask does more to protect you than to protect me, and it may not do all that much anyway, but I'm happy to wear it even as it infuriates me how many of our fellow citizens are unwilling to return the favor.
As for Dr. Fauci, I will not lay more of this on his shoulders than is necessary. Suffice it to say that "Smile like things are going well" pressure does not get placed upon him only by Republicans.
posted by delfin at 7:13 AM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
Precisely. My mask does more to protect you than to protect me, and it may not do all that much anyway, but I'm happy to wear it even as it infuriates me how many of our fellow citizens are unwilling to return the favor.
As for Dr. Fauci, I will not lay more of this on his shoulders than is necessary. Suffice it to say that "Smile like things are going well" pressure does not get placed upon him only by Republicans.
posted by delfin at 7:13 AM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
8 percent of the population that has not been vaccinated is responsible for 75 percent of all the people who are filling up our covid beds.
This is really interesting because in England, 75% of the Omicron patients in hospital were vaccinated last week. I wonder why this figure is so different? Maryland has more vaccinated people, but less boosted people than England, so you wouldn't expect this result.
Maybe most of the hospitalized in Maryland are still from Delta infections?
Maybe there is a lot more immunity from past infection in England than Maryland, so the unvaccinated are better protected?
Maybe the people in English hospitals are vaccinated with AZ (which we know is not very effective against Omicron, especially many months later)?
It's probably some combination of the above plus more that's not immediately obvious. A good reminder that the same virus can cause very different outcomes in different populations.
posted by ssg at 8:04 AM on January 3, 2022
This is really interesting because in England, 75% of the Omicron patients in hospital were vaccinated last week. I wonder why this figure is so different? Maryland has more vaccinated people, but less boosted people than England, so you wouldn't expect this result.
Maybe most of the hospitalized in Maryland are still from Delta infections?
Maybe there is a lot more immunity from past infection in England than Maryland, so the unvaccinated are better protected?
Maybe the people in English hospitals are vaccinated with AZ (which we know is not very effective against Omicron, especially many months later)?
It's probably some combination of the above plus more that's not immediately obvious. A good reminder that the same virus can cause very different outcomes in different populations.
posted by ssg at 8:04 AM on January 3, 2022
My mask does more to protect you than to protect me, and it may not do all that much anyway
This is just not true unless you're talking ONLY about cloth masks. I literally just listened to two doctors on 1A addressing this. Cloth masks do more to protect people other than the wearers. Surgical masks do a better job protecting the wearer. KN94 masks and those like them do a very good job protecting the wearer and other people. And N95s do the best job at everything.
Please please please get up to date on the effectiveness of masks.
posted by cooker girl at 8:30 AM on January 3, 2022 [13 favorites]
This is just not true unless you're talking ONLY about cloth masks. I literally just listened to two doctors on 1A addressing this. Cloth masks do more to protect people other than the wearers. Surgical masks do a better job protecting the wearer. KN94 masks and those like them do a very good job protecting the wearer and other people. And N95s do the best job at everything.
Please please please get up to date on the effectiveness of masks.
posted by cooker girl at 8:30 AM on January 3, 2022 [13 favorites]
NYC schools are at 10x the positivity rate that caused them to close down last year. Nevertheless, the march back to school begins. What a disaster.
Faucci is now also saying that children are mostly being hospitalized with COVID, not because of COVID, which implies that both case numbers and hospitalizations among children are incorrect and unreliable. So that's fun!
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:04 AM on January 3, 2022
Faucci is now also saying that children are mostly being hospitalized with COVID, not because of COVID, which implies that both case numbers and hospitalizations among children are incorrect and unreliable. So that's fun!
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:04 AM on January 3, 2022
GBS can paralyze your diaphragm, an organ frequently used for breathing. (You might even be using yours right now!)
This. My mom had Guillan-Barré when I was a kid; she spent months in the hospital entirely paralyzed, having a machine do her breathing for her, unable to blink on her own. She had to learn how to walk again, but she made a full recovery and is still with us as she nears eighty, with nothing to show for that grim summer (save for a little brown mark on her throat you wouldn’t know is a tracheotomy scar).
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:15 AM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
This. My mom had Guillan-Barré when I was a kid; she spent months in the hospital entirely paralyzed, having a machine do her breathing for her, unable to blink on her own. She had to learn how to walk again, but she made a full recovery and is still with us as she nears eighty, with nothing to show for that grim summer (save for a little brown mark on her throat you wouldn’t know is a tracheotomy scar).
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:15 AM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
NYC schools are at 10x the positivity rate that caused them to close down last year.
Your neighbours across the border in Ontario cannot offer a direct comparison as our wise premier has decided to stop collecting case data for schools. The numbers were not looking good.
Why yes, 2022 is an election here year, now that you mention it.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:18 AM on January 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
Your neighbours across the border in Ontario cannot offer a direct comparison as our wise premier has decided to stop collecting case data for schools. The numbers were not looking good.
Why yes, 2022 is an election here year, now that you mention it.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:18 AM on January 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
A highly useful recent podcast episode by three leading doctors (Attia, Makary, Damania - aka ZDogg) who are also excellent communicators of the science and policy issues to a non-expert audience.
link here
posted by theorique at 9:39 AM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
link here
posted by theorique at 9:39 AM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
If anyone wants to know what is actually going on in NYC schools / hospitals, rather than the spin, please read this valuable roundtable interview with NYC teachers and nurses. It lays bare the complete failure of the public health and governmental authorities to deal adequately with Omicron. Some excerpts:
Public schools don’t just educate children, they fill in all of the gaps of the American welfare state. When schools collapse, it’s a crisis in how we care for children and their families. Since schools play this fundamental role in our social safety net, when they close down it creates cascading problems everywhere, especially the economy. That’s why there has been an unrelenting push to keep schools open no matter what. The U.S. is now seeing the highest COVID cases of any point in the pandemic and all the advice we’ve been given about masks, distancing and quarantining over the past two years has suddenly gone out the window. The message is: the government is done doing anything substantive to stop the spread of COVID. So of course, every teacher is asking themselves: do I really want to keep doing this? So now schools can barely stay open because so many teachers have quit, are out sick, or are too afraid to come back. It feels like the city government has effectively driven the car into a wall and their solution is to just step on the gas.posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 10:11 AM on January 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
...
I’ve spent the last two years thinking things can’t get worse and then they somehow do. Yesterday was worse than any day I had in March and April of 2020. I would never want to return to those days in 2020, but at least then there was a shutdown. There were no car accidents, stabbings, or gunshots. Asthma went way down. We were largely just dealing with COVID. Now we have COVID layered on top of everything else. And I’m a direct witness to what happens when kids test positive and keep coming to school. Our ER is filling up with both teachers and students. It’s obvious that what happens in education affects what happens in healthcare and both are at the mercy of these deeper systemic failures.
This is really interesting because in England, 75% of the Omicron patients in hospital were vaccinated last week
Add age as a factor. US vaccination rates increase with age, but UK rates do so more strongly. (As of mid-Dec. Hard to dig the current stats up at the moment, I can later.)
posted by away for regrooving at 10:33 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
Add age as a factor. US vaccination rates increase with age, but UK rates do so more strongly. (As of mid-Dec. Hard to dig the current stats up at the moment, I can later.)
posted by away for regrooving at 10:33 AM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
My mom had Guillan-Barré when I was a kid; she spent months in the hospital entirely paralyzed, having a machine do her breathing for her, unable to blink on her own.
An excellent work for outsiders curious about GBS is No Laughing Matter, a collaborative book by Joseph Heller (who contracted it) and Speed Vogel (his closest friend helping him get through the experience).
It is not something that anyone would want.
posted by delfin at 12:11 PM on January 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
An excellent work for outsiders curious about GBS is No Laughing Matter, a collaborative book by Joseph Heller (who contracted it) and Speed Vogel (his closest friend helping him get through the experience).
It is not something that anyone would want.
posted by delfin at 12:11 PM on January 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
Maryland ICU beds at 72% total capacity, 90% of staffed capacity.
posted by Slackermagee at 3:16 PM on January 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Slackermagee at 3:16 PM on January 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
Slackermagee I am also in Maryland. It’s an unsettling feeling when the hospitalisations are objectively terrible and there are no precautions except wear a mask indoors. And there are WaPo headlines like Southeast U.S. poised for a firestorm of omicron cases, with few safeguards in place … there are hardly any safeguards in the north either!
Anyway, just trying to hunker down and enjoy the snow, and figure out how to avoid going in to work.
posted by sizeable beetle at 5:53 PM on January 3, 2022
Anyway, just trying to hunker down and enjoy the snow, and figure out how to avoid going in to work.
posted by sizeable beetle at 5:53 PM on January 3, 2022
"When schools collapse, it’s a crisis in how we care for children and their families."
Yeah -- my friends in Peoria Public Schools, where vaccination rates are low(ish) and poverty rates are high, just made the decision to extend winter break for a week, knowing that that means that a LOT of children who do not have regular access to food at home will be going hungry for another week. There are a LOT of children whose only regular meals are free federal breakfast and lunch.
But this seemed like the heartbreakingly better option than sending huge numbers of children and teachers to the already-overstretched hospitals. I have friends -- teachers, administrators, local social service providers -- who are basically awake all night, every night, worrying about this, knowing there is nothing left that they can do.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:57 PM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yeah -- my friends in Peoria Public Schools, where vaccination rates are low(ish) and poverty rates are high, just made the decision to extend winter break for a week, knowing that that means that a LOT of children who do not have regular access to food at home will be going hungry for another week. There are a LOT of children whose only regular meals are free federal breakfast and lunch.
But this seemed like the heartbreakingly better option than sending huge numbers of children and teachers to the already-overstretched hospitals. I have friends -- teachers, administrators, local social service providers -- who are basically awake all night, every night, worrying about this, knowing there is nothing left that they can do.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:57 PM on January 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
knowing there is nothing left that they can do
This obviously doesn't apply to the individual teachers, school administrators, and local social service providers who don't have the power to set broader policy. But "we" in the general sense of various levels of governmental bodies within the US could keep providing food, just as a take-out service from a couple spots reachable by families in the communities served by a given school (food and labor for prep would cost the same as they'd be spending with open schools, transportation to wherever the food is to be distributed would cost less than utilities and maintenance costs of keeping the school open). Or legislate a living wage as minimum wage (bonus: more and more studies show this also stimulates economic growth overall!). Or pay a basic income (at least for families with children! But even the too-small, too-brief and too-hard-to-access payments earlier in the pandemic helped decrease child hunger, if I recall reports correctly). (I'm sure your friends are very, very aware of that, too Eyebrows McGee, and that the fact that there are available solutions that just aren't being implemented is part of what is contributing to their worry. :( )
posted by eviemath at 8:37 PM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
This obviously doesn't apply to the individual teachers, school administrators, and local social service providers who don't have the power to set broader policy. But "we" in the general sense of various levels of governmental bodies within the US could keep providing food, just as a take-out service from a couple spots reachable by families in the communities served by a given school (food and labor for prep would cost the same as they'd be spending with open schools, transportation to wherever the food is to be distributed would cost less than utilities and maintenance costs of keeping the school open). Or legislate a living wage as minimum wage (bonus: more and more studies show this also stimulates economic growth overall!). Or pay a basic income (at least for families with children! But even the too-small, too-brief and too-hard-to-access payments earlier in the pandemic helped decrease child hunger, if I recall reports correctly). (I'm sure your friends are very, very aware of that, too Eyebrows McGee, and that the fact that there are available solutions that just aren't being implemented is part of what is contributing to their worry. :( )
posted by eviemath at 8:37 PM on January 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
"various levels of governmental bodies within the US could keep providing food, just as a take-out service from a couple spots reachable by families in the communities served by a given school (food and labor for prep would cost the same as they'd be spending with open schools, transportation to wherever the food is to be distributed would cost less than utilities and maintenance costs of keeping the school open)."
So, you would think so, but it's a lot more complicated than that. The food has to be purchased and it has to arrive at prep kitchens capable of handling it, with staff capable of turning it into edible meals. If it's being taken out, that's a WHOLE different scenario than if it's being eaten as hot meals. The prep kitchens are IN the schools -- there is no community prep kitchen nearly as large as a school kitchen (at least not in Peoria) -- so you're paying the same to keep the school open. And often on snow days we DID pay to keep the school building open, so the kitchen could prep meals that could be picked up, or we could deliver; and so children whose parents had to work and had no other child care could send their kids to the building.
But probably the most important point is that kids who are food insecure either have TOTALLY disinvested parents who are NOT going to take them to food pickup points when school is not in session (that's why they don't eat when there's no school! Even though there are a ton of programs to help get them food) OR their parents do not have the ability to get them to a non-school location, or to a school location without normal school transit, or outside normal school hours. A lot of these parents don't have cars! A lot of local public transit doesn't run to schools, because school buses do that! The parents of low-income children who have jobs WORK THEIR ASSES OFF at very hard jobs, often with very weird hours, with very limited non-school childcare options. In Peoria, these jobs were almost all at the hospital, typically as CNAs or in food service or in janitorial service, often in the shitty overnight shifts. It was kinda weird to deliver a baby and spend several days in the hospital, and see the 3 a.m. janitor and be like, "Hey! Joe! How are you!? I haven't seen you since school conferences! How Joe Jr.?" (Also I was catheterized by a student I taught medical ethics to when she was in nursing school, so maybe I'm really just saying it was a very small town, but also, it was weird.)
The United States absolutely has the ability to provide food to every hungry child -- every hungry person -- who needs it. But to do so would require a massive investment in infrastructure far beyond just "providing calories per person." The people have to get to the calories, the calories have to get to the people.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:47 PM on January 3, 2022 [14 favorites]
So, you would think so, but it's a lot more complicated than that. The food has to be purchased and it has to arrive at prep kitchens capable of handling it, with staff capable of turning it into edible meals. If it's being taken out, that's a WHOLE different scenario than if it's being eaten as hot meals. The prep kitchens are IN the schools -- there is no community prep kitchen nearly as large as a school kitchen (at least not in Peoria) -- so you're paying the same to keep the school open. And often on snow days we DID pay to keep the school building open, so the kitchen could prep meals that could be picked up, or we could deliver; and so children whose parents had to work and had no other child care could send their kids to the building.
But probably the most important point is that kids who are food insecure either have TOTALLY disinvested parents who are NOT going to take them to food pickup points when school is not in session (that's why they don't eat when there's no school! Even though there are a ton of programs to help get them food) OR their parents do not have the ability to get them to a non-school location, or to a school location without normal school transit, or outside normal school hours. A lot of these parents don't have cars! A lot of local public transit doesn't run to schools, because school buses do that! The parents of low-income children who have jobs WORK THEIR ASSES OFF at very hard jobs, often with very weird hours, with very limited non-school childcare options. In Peoria, these jobs were almost all at the hospital, typically as CNAs or in food service or in janitorial service, often in the shitty overnight shifts. It was kinda weird to deliver a baby and spend several days in the hospital, and see the 3 a.m. janitor and be like, "Hey! Joe! How are you!? I haven't seen you since school conferences! How Joe Jr.?" (Also I was catheterized by a student I taught medical ethics to when she was in nursing school, so maybe I'm really just saying it was a very small town, but also, it was weird.)
The United States absolutely has the ability to provide food to every hungry child -- every hungry person -- who needs it. But to do so would require a massive investment in infrastructure far beyond just "providing calories per person." The people have to get to the calories, the calories have to get to the people.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:47 PM on January 3, 2022 [14 favorites]
Also, in Peoria, school food service, school transit, local public transit, school maintenance/janitorial -- that was all unionized. So you're not just looking at paying people bottom dollar to do fungible services; these are all relatively well-paid unionized tradesmen with contracts and overtime. School personnel are typically paid for a 180-day school year (as per the state school year requirements). Adding an extra 5 days to that work year by having cafeteria and transit personnel work when school is NOT in session adds a significant cost. Year-round personnel typically work 240-day contracts, sometimes 250 (there are 260 business days in a typical year). But not that many personnel who provide student services -- food, transit -- have 240-day contracts. (A handful do! There are some students guaranteed services during the summer! But not that many, so there's a big added cost.)
180 days is a flat six months, but with weekends and federal holidays and winter break it works out to 9 months of work. Whether you get paid your salary over 9 months, or over 12 months, is up to your union contract (in my state). Regardless, you can either work elsewhere during the summer, or earn extra money working for the school district during the summer, as you're contracted for 180 working days and the summer is an extra 60-80. But almost everyone is on a 180-day contract, and if you want 5 days beyond that, or if you want a 240-day contract, you're paying a lot more.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:08 PM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
180 days is a flat six months, but with weekends and federal holidays and winter break it works out to 9 months of work. Whether you get paid your salary over 9 months, or over 12 months, is up to your union contract (in my state). Regardless, you can either work elsewhere during the summer, or earn extra money working for the school district during the summer, as you're contracted for 180 working days and the summer is an extra 60-80. But almost everyone is on a 180-day contract, and if you want 5 days beyond that, or if you want a 240-day contract, you're paying a lot more.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:08 PM on January 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
1 million. We did it. Woo.
The hospital line is trending straight up, it just lags.
You know what’s most hilarious about this to me…? You don’t but it’s that I learned how much I loved data from predicting box office scores. And I had a real talent at it. I was accurately predicting a lot of them week to week so much so that I was really housing other more professional data nerds. There were prizes. So I started grad school in January 2020. Best experience of my life, I was alive.
Movie box offices are kind of art kind of science. What will people do? Always a black box, yknow.
It’s made me really good at this FUCKING SHIT IT MAKES ME SO MAD I ahem yeah, anyway, the pandemic and how it goes is kind of like predicting box office. A bit of a wild card, but you see the writing on the wall so early if you know what to look for.
Seriously, I was getting so good at predicting box office returns. Lol like movies matter now.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 10:11 PM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
The hospital line is trending straight up, it just lags.
You know what’s most hilarious about this to me…? You don’t but it’s that I learned how much I loved data from predicting box office scores. And I had a real talent at it. I was accurately predicting a lot of them week to week so much so that I was really housing other more professional data nerds. There were prizes. So I started grad school in January 2020. Best experience of my life, I was alive.
Movie box offices are kind of art kind of science. What will people do? Always a black box, yknow.
It’s made me really good at this FUCKING SHIT IT MAKES ME SO MAD I ahem yeah, anyway, the pandemic and how it goes is kind of like predicting box office. A bit of a wild card, but you see the writing on the wall so early if you know what to look for.
Seriously, I was getting so good at predicting box office returns. Lol like movies matter now.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 10:11 PM on January 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
Fauci isn't the only one saying that hospitalizations are a better method to use than case counts at this stage of the pandemic. I'd rather not link to a Twitter thread, but I figure the Twitter thread describing this author's New York Times article is better than the article itself, which might be behind paywall: Twitter thread.
I have no idea whether or not the author of the above article and thread aligns with a majority view in public health, but considering Fauci is pretty much the face of the public health establishment during COVID, I'm not sure what additional sources should be required.
I'm getting the distinct impression that some people think science and public health are like a burning bush that offers transcendent truths obvious to all but sinful non-believers rather than complicated social processes and institutions that grope through a world full of incomplete information and complicated imperatives and considerations that often conflict. At the very least, it seems like public health and scientific authority are sticks people seem eager to use to beat others with when statements from those entities line up with their proclivities but which those same people then eagerly scorn and cast aside when those weapons no longer behave according to their desires.
posted by eagles123 at 10:46 PM on January 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
I have no idea whether or not the author of the above article and thread aligns with a majority view in public health, but considering Fauci is pretty much the face of the public health establishment during COVID, I'm not sure what additional sources should be required.
I'm getting the distinct impression that some people think science and public health are like a burning bush that offers transcendent truths obvious to all but sinful non-believers rather than complicated social processes and institutions that grope through a world full of incomplete information and complicated imperatives and considerations that often conflict. At the very least, it seems like public health and scientific authority are sticks people seem eager to use to beat others with when statements from those entities line up with their proclivities but which those same people then eagerly scorn and cast aside when those weapons no longer behave according to their desires.
posted by eagles123 at 10:46 PM on January 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
This is really interesting because in England, 75% of the Omicron patients in hospital were vaccinated last week. I wonder why this figure is so different? Maryland has more vaccinated people, but less boosted people than England, so you wouldn't expect this result.
England has extremely high vaccination levels amongst the elderly, in the high ninety-percent range, along with a lot of recent boosters for them and this matters a lot more than overall population vaccination levels for preventing hospitalisations given how much the risk of being hospitalized increases with age and how relatively ineffective the current vaccines are at preventing infection and spreading compared to protecting the person who's been vaccinated against hospitalization directly. Last I heard a random vaccinated person in England was actually slightly more likely to be hospitalized than an unvaccinated one, just because the people at higher risk were so much more likely to be vaccinated and the differences in risk are so vast. This doesn't get advertised much by the media, possibly because it'd get in the way of blaming anti-vaxxers for all our woes and making it seem like England has fallen massively behind the rest of Europe in vaccinations, the two important narratives of our times.
In particular, the US has been vaccinating 5-11 year olds whereas England hasn't yet, and you have to vaccinate a truly ludicrous number of 5-11 year olds to have the same effect on hospitalisations as vaccinating a single over-65 (at least in the thousands or tens of thousands, I think).
posted by makomk at 3:01 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
England has extremely high vaccination levels amongst the elderly, in the high ninety-percent range, along with a lot of recent boosters for them and this matters a lot more than overall population vaccination levels for preventing hospitalisations given how much the risk of being hospitalized increases with age and how relatively ineffective the current vaccines are at preventing infection and spreading compared to protecting the person who's been vaccinated against hospitalization directly. Last I heard a random vaccinated person in England was actually slightly more likely to be hospitalized than an unvaccinated one, just because the people at higher risk were so much more likely to be vaccinated and the differences in risk are so vast. This doesn't get advertised much by the media, possibly because it'd get in the way of blaming anti-vaxxers for all our woes and making it seem like England has fallen massively behind the rest of Europe in vaccinations, the two important narratives of our times.
In particular, the US has been vaccinating 5-11 year olds whereas England hasn't yet, and you have to vaccinate a truly ludicrous number of 5-11 year olds to have the same effect on hospitalisations as vaccinating a single over-65 (at least in the thousands or tens of thousands, I think).
posted by makomk at 3:01 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
In particular, the US has been vaccinating 5-11 year olds whereas England hasn't yet, and you have to vaccinate a truly ludicrous number of 5-11 year olds to have the same effect on hospitalisations as vaccinating a single over-65 (at least in the thousands or tens of thousands, I think).
This seems to have been a practice throughout the whole pandemic: massive focus on protection of young children, the vast majority at minimal risk, combined with insufficient protection of those at greatest risk, especially the most frail elderly. This practice probably reached its nadir when New York and New Jersey insisted on returning still-contagious covid patients to care homes for the elderly, who represented about 0.5% of the overall population and 40% of the deaths.
For whatever reason, the clinical trials of the vaccines similarly recruited largely healthy and low-risk young and middle-aged adults and neglected those who were at greatest risk. This is what led to the exaggerated claims of effectiveness: since there were essentially no deaths in either the placebo or the treatment arms of the trial, the initial clinical trials were not powered to determine whether the vaccine had an effect on death via covid. (Now that the vaccines have been available in the general population, it appears that they do have a beneficial effect on disease severity and death. But the initial trials barely showed this.)
As you point out, expanding the availability of the vaccines to healthy young children, who are at almost no risk, when there are seniors who could likely benefit from boosters, seems like a misallocation of resources. (High-risk children with comorbidities or immune deficiency should obviously have the option for vaccination.) Even now, we could do a better job of prioritizing resources to cover those at greatest risk while opening things up for those at lowest risk (aka "focused protection").
posted by theorique at 5:47 AM on January 4, 2022
This seems to have been a practice throughout the whole pandemic: massive focus on protection of young children, the vast majority at minimal risk, combined with insufficient protection of those at greatest risk, especially the most frail elderly. This practice probably reached its nadir when New York and New Jersey insisted on returning still-contagious covid patients to care homes for the elderly, who represented about 0.5% of the overall population and 40% of the deaths.
For whatever reason, the clinical trials of the vaccines similarly recruited largely healthy and low-risk young and middle-aged adults and neglected those who were at greatest risk. This is what led to the exaggerated claims of effectiveness: since there were essentially no deaths in either the placebo or the treatment arms of the trial, the initial clinical trials were not powered to determine whether the vaccine had an effect on death via covid. (Now that the vaccines have been available in the general population, it appears that they do have a beneficial effect on disease severity and death. But the initial trials barely showed this.)
As you point out, expanding the availability of the vaccines to healthy young children, who are at almost no risk, when there are seniors who could likely benefit from boosters, seems like a misallocation of resources. (High-risk children with comorbidities or immune deficiency should obviously have the option for vaccination.) Even now, we could do a better job of prioritizing resources to cover those at greatest risk while opening things up for those at lowest risk (aka "focused protection").
posted by theorique at 5:47 AM on January 4, 2022
Yeah -- my friends in Peoria Public Schools, where vaccination rates are low(ish) and poverty rates are high, just made the decision to extend winter break for a week, knowing that that means that a LOT of children who do not have regular access to food at home will be going hungry for another week. There are a LOT of children whose only regular meals are free federal breakfast and lunch.
Thank you for the detailed description of the mechanics of providing these services via schools.
This highlights to me the absurdity of continuing to close schools (which are providing vital, literally life-saving and life-sustaining services) while keeping, say, bars open. But that reverse of priorities is not new, and is really just a continuation of how we, as a society, have defunded and deprioritized public services over the last four decades.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
Thank you for the detailed description of the mechanics of providing these services via schools.
This highlights to me the absurdity of continuing to close schools (which are providing vital, literally life-saving and life-sustaining services) while keeping, say, bars open. But that reverse of priorities is not new, and is really just a continuation of how we, as a society, have defunded and deprioritized public services over the last four decades.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
The prep kitchens are IN the schools -- there is no community prep kitchen nearly as large as a school kitchen (at least not in Peoria) -- so you're paying the same to keep the school open.
Ah, so no savings, just extra transportation cost to get the meals to where they are accessible to the community. (Or coordinate with the hospital to shift resources to their food services instead, perhaps, in your town’s particular case?) Definitely not in the school budget I’m sure, but it should be something the town could help coordinate, were there the political will for it (the lack of political will or interest seems to be the sticking point in all such cases, and that is unfortunately not a trivial obstacle to overcome). Eg. getting state or federal or non-profit grants, contributions from local businesses, or partnering with relevant social service non-profits that might be sending social workers or others around the community already anyway. (Personally I think any town facing this type of issue should just shift funds from their police services, but I guess I’m a radical or something.)
posted by eviemath at 6:49 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ah, so no savings, just extra transportation cost to get the meals to where they are accessible to the community. (Or coordinate with the hospital to shift resources to their food services instead, perhaps, in your town’s particular case?) Definitely not in the school budget I’m sure, but it should be something the town could help coordinate, were there the political will for it (the lack of political will or interest seems to be the sticking point in all such cases, and that is unfortunately not a trivial obstacle to overcome). Eg. getting state or federal or non-profit grants, contributions from local businesses, or partnering with relevant social service non-profits that might be sending social workers or others around the community already anyway. (Personally I think any town facing this type of issue should just shift funds from their police services, but I guess I’m a radical or something.)
posted by eviemath at 6:49 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Because of the many obvious factors that have been discussed above and in other threads here, for many months a friend of mine who covers COVID for a national U.S. newspaper has been asking their editors to stop using case counts and instead use hospitalizations and deaths as the key metric of where we are with the pandemic.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:50 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 6:50 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Re: policy around who (eg. which age groups) to vaccinate: this depends on the goal of a vaccination campaign to some extent.
For lots of places, such as where I live, the original goal (over a year ago now) was to eliminate COVID-19. To do that, as I understand it, you need above a critical threshold of total population vaccinated. My province started with groups more at risk in their vaccine roll-out, but had the goal of getting as close to everyone as possible vaccinated and had sufficient access to do so in a reasonable time frame. But focusing on vaccinating sub-populations most responsible for transmission would be an entirely reasonable approach to reach this public health goal of vaccination.
The other main goal of vaccination is ensuring that symptoms are minimized, both for basic individual human right to health reasons and more systemically to avoid strain on public health infrastructure. In this case, a focus on more fully vaccinating those most at risk, when one has to choose or prioritize, is reasonable. Though having enough people vaccinated overall to suppress transmission also reduces this category of risk, so even if your policy focus is solely on protecting sub-populations at greatest risk, your vaccination roll-out strategy might look a little more complex.
Of course, suppressing global transmission enough so that the risk of ongoing evolution of new strains that might escape previous immunity (as the omicron strain has) or cause sufficiently more severe illness as to increase the at-risk population too much (as the delta strain has) or negate work done to protect those more at risk seems to me like a pretty important goal as well. In other words, the two goals I described above are inter-linked even more than they seem at first glance, even though globally eliminating COVID-19 seems to be no longer possible. We need to get rid of vaccine patents and ramp up global production to make more vaccine available to everyone everywhere, so that we’re not forced to choose between different age groups or sub-populations to focus our vaccination efforts on.
posted by eviemath at 7:13 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
For lots of places, such as where I live, the original goal (over a year ago now) was to eliminate COVID-19. To do that, as I understand it, you need above a critical threshold of total population vaccinated. My province started with groups more at risk in their vaccine roll-out, but had the goal of getting as close to everyone as possible vaccinated and had sufficient access to do so in a reasonable time frame. But focusing on vaccinating sub-populations most responsible for transmission would be an entirely reasonable approach to reach this public health goal of vaccination.
The other main goal of vaccination is ensuring that symptoms are minimized, both for basic individual human right to health reasons and more systemically to avoid strain on public health infrastructure. In this case, a focus on more fully vaccinating those most at risk, when one has to choose or prioritize, is reasonable. Though having enough people vaccinated overall to suppress transmission also reduces this category of risk, so even if your policy focus is solely on protecting sub-populations at greatest risk, your vaccination roll-out strategy might look a little more complex.
Of course, suppressing global transmission enough so that the risk of ongoing evolution of new strains that might escape previous immunity (as the omicron strain has) or cause sufficiently more severe illness as to increase the at-risk population too much (as the delta strain has) or negate work done to protect those more at risk seems to me like a pretty important goal as well. In other words, the two goals I described above are inter-linked even more than they seem at first glance, even though globally eliminating COVID-19 seems to be no longer possible. We need to get rid of vaccine patents and ramp up global production to make more vaccine available to everyone everywhere, so that we’re not forced to choose between different age groups or sub-populations to focus our vaccination efforts on.
posted by eviemath at 7:13 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
eviemath: "even the too-small, too-brief and too-hard-to-access payments earlier in the pandemic helped decrease child hunger, if I recall reports correctly"
You do indeed recall correctly - COVID-expanded child tax credit benefit nears lapse, AP News, Lisa Mascaro and Ashraf Khalil :
You do indeed recall correctly - COVID-expanded child tax credit benefit nears lapse, AP News, Lisa Mascaro and Ashraf Khalil :
Studies suggest the child tax credit expansions are expected to cut child poverty by 40% — with 9 of 10 American children benefiting. All told, some 4.1 million children are on track to be lifted above the poverty line, according to analysis from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.posted by kristi at 7:50 AM on January 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
...
Families in New Mexico, which has one of the country’s highest child poverty rates, spent nearly 46% of their child tax credit money on food, a study by Washington University in St. Louis’ Social Policy Institute found.
Our city has addressed the food delivery problems mentioned by Eyebrows upthread by partnering with several organizations in the city, like all the library branches, community centers, and YMCAs to get food to kids. It's not perfect but it does help a lot of kids. And the schools make sure that all the kids know where to go to get food and they're not required to be accompanied by an adult to get their food boxes. It sucks that this is reality.
posted by cooker girl at 8:00 AM on January 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by cooker girl at 8:00 AM on January 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
A valuable thread from a Financial Times reporter with omicron information based on the latest data from the UK: "Despite steep rises in cases and patients, the number on ventilators has barely risen."
posted by PhineasGage at 8:03 AM on January 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 8:03 AM on January 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
Fauci isn't the only one saying that hospitalizations are a better method to use than case counts at this stage of the pandemic.
I'm not sure if there's anyone disagreeing about the importance of hospitalizations. But if you put a rosy glow on things by emphasizing the lower percentage of people with covid are hospitalized (which is what Fauci and others seem to be doing), you're underemphasizing the sheer numbers of people hospitalized due to the extremely high case rate. As someone said, if the denominator is high enough, a lower percentage of hospitalizations is still a potential catastrophe. Not to mention the logistical problems created by the people who cannot go to work because they tested positive. A friend of mine who is a nurse said the nurses in their ER had 12-15 patients each last night because so many nurses are out sick. That's triple what is normal. My friend who is a NYC public school teacher said about 1/3 of staff at her school were out yesterday. Hospitalizations are important, but they're not the whole picture.
For me, this is the hardest time in the pandemic to figure out how worried I should be and what I should do. Case numbers are through the roof, a lower percentage need to be hospitalized, staffing problems are huge. It's terrible but also better?
posted by Mavri at 8:20 AM on January 4, 2022 [10 favorites]
I'm not sure if there's anyone disagreeing about the importance of hospitalizations. But if you put a rosy glow on things by emphasizing the lower percentage of people with covid are hospitalized (which is what Fauci and others seem to be doing), you're underemphasizing the sheer numbers of people hospitalized due to the extremely high case rate. As someone said, if the denominator is high enough, a lower percentage of hospitalizations is still a potential catastrophe. Not to mention the logistical problems created by the people who cannot go to work because they tested positive. A friend of mine who is a nurse said the nurses in their ER had 12-15 patients each last night because so many nurses are out sick. That's triple what is normal. My friend who is a NYC public school teacher said about 1/3 of staff at her school were out yesterday. Hospitalizations are important, but they're not the whole picture.
For me, this is the hardest time in the pandemic to figure out how worried I should be and what I should do. Case numbers are through the roof, a lower percentage need to be hospitalized, staffing problems are huge. It's terrible but also better?
posted by Mavri at 8:20 AM on January 4, 2022 [10 favorites]
People should consider that waiting for hospitalization data is adding about 7 days delay to making decisions about how to respond to the pandemic. It's kind of like saying "We'll give the patients antibiotics for leg wounds once we see some evidence for gangrene" and then bemoaning the inevitable amputations.
This has been a CDC-Science vs Public health problem since the start of the pandemic. The issue isn't accuracy. It is effectiveness of policy. Waiting for scientific certainty and accuracy rather than acting decisively in accordance with the precautionary principle has repeatedly done the US and most of the West in during this pandemic.
"Wait and See" is the polite technocratic version of "Fuck around and find out" in an exponentially spreading global pandemic context.
posted by srboisvert at 8:41 AM on January 4, 2022 [10 favorites]
This has been a CDC-Science vs Public health problem since the start of the pandemic. The issue isn't accuracy. It is effectiveness of policy. Waiting for scientific certainty and accuracy rather than acting decisively in accordance with the precautionary principle has repeatedly done the US and most of the West in during this pandemic.
"Wait and See" is the polite technocratic version of "Fuck around and find out" in an exponentially spreading global pandemic context.
posted by srboisvert at 8:41 AM on January 4, 2022 [10 favorites]
No one in the sane quarters of the world, especially MetaFilter, is putting a rosy glow on this continuing disaster. There is lots of sincere, good-faith disagreement on many aspects of the situation, which changes daily. The tone of skeptical fury some here are expressing starts to sound a bit too much like the right-wing anti-science-establishment folks, though.
This pandemic is terribly anxiety- and fear-inducing for all of us. I am hugely critical of some of the bureaucratic behavior of the FDA re: testing and the sometimes-questionable decision-making and frequently-inept public communications of the CDC. But I don't doubt for a second that they are all smart and well-intentioned.
For me, I find UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter a trustworthy source of information, of links to other reliable experts, and of wise guidance on how I should best ensure my own pandemic safety.
posted by PhineasGage at 8:59 AM on January 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
This pandemic is terribly anxiety- and fear-inducing for all of us. I am hugely critical of some of the bureaucratic behavior of the FDA re: testing and the sometimes-questionable decision-making and frequently-inept public communications of the CDC. But I don't doubt for a second that they are all smart and well-intentioned.
For me, I find UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter a trustworthy source of information, of links to other reliable experts, and of wise guidance on how I should best ensure my own pandemic safety.
posted by PhineasGage at 8:59 AM on January 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
I think Fauci and anyone whose been to medical school can figure out that hospitalizations are going to come after cases. Going back to the twitter thread I referenced, the idea isn't to stop tracking cases completely. Apparently they do try to track influenza every year; although I'd imagine that involves a lot of statistical inferencing considering we've never attempted to track the spread of a respiratory virus at the scale we've tested for SARS-COV 2 before. Rather, the suggestion would be to look at hospitalizations when deciding on measures like NPI's. In doing that, you'd still look at proportions hospitalized as a percentage of the population and proportions hospitalized as percentage of cases to make decisions, as well as, I'd imagine, the rate of hospitalization growth. I'm not sure if Singapore counts as the "the west", but they started doing this back in September, and they continue to have very tight NPI's, so its not like there is a relationship between using hospitalizations as a metric and the tightness or looseness of restrictions.
posted by eagles123 at 9:15 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by eagles123 at 9:15 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
There is lots of sincere, good-faith disagreement on many aspects of the situation, which changes daily. The tone of skeptical fury some here are expressing starts to sound a bit too much like the right-wing anti-science-establishment folks, though.
I'm gonna assume this is directed at me since you used my words. I was expressing good faith disagreement with the implication that people don't think hospitalizations are an important method of assessing the status of the pandemic. There was no fury. This is like the pointing Spiderman meme. Don't point to someone else's good faith disagreement, read fury into it, and compare it to the right wing, please and thanks.
The only fury I've expressed is with the eugenicist, ableist, and ageist positions some people are taking. I stand by that fury and always will.
posted by Mavri at 9:17 AM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm gonna assume this is directed at me since you used my words. I was expressing good faith disagreement with the implication that people don't think hospitalizations are an important method of assessing the status of the pandemic. There was no fury. This is like the pointing Spiderman meme. Don't point to someone else's good faith disagreement, read fury into it, and compare it to the right wing, please and thanks.
The only fury I've expressed is with the eugenicist, ableist, and ageist positions some people are taking. I stand by that fury and always will.
posted by Mavri at 9:17 AM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Apologies for effectively singling you out Mavri - there's a lot of sharp critiquing of medical experts upthread that seems ill-advised (as eagles123 has also noted). But your full comment - "if you put a rosy glow on things by emphasizing the lower percentage of people with covid are hospitalized (which is what Fauci and others seem to be doing), you're underemphasizing the sheer numbers of people hospitalized due to the extremely high case rate" - just doesn't match with the tone or substance of what I see coming from Fauci or any of the other scientific experts we have been listening to.
All of them are clearly terrified about the absolute numbers of sick people overwhelming hospitals. But making sound decisions about public mandates or even societal closures needs to be guided by the best metrics at any particular moment in the pandemic.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:25 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
All of them are clearly terrified about the absolute numbers of sick people overwhelming hospitals. But making sound decisions about public mandates or even societal closures needs to be guided by the best metrics at any particular moment in the pandemic.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:25 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
There is lots of sincere, good-faith disagreement on many aspects of the situation, which changes daily.
It seems you're saying that sincere, good-faith disagreement in itself constitutes a ground to postpone judgment. Setting aside the matter that a lot of disagreement is markedly insincere and in outright bad faith, another problem is that postponing judgment during a crisis is liable to exacerbate the crisis, leading to more uncertainty, and yet more sincere, good-faith disagreement.
If the situation changes daily (does it?), that's in part because we're allowing that to happen, and it's important to acknowledge that some actors stand to benefit from increased fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
posted by dmh at 9:57 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
It seems you're saying that sincere, good-faith disagreement in itself constitutes a ground to postpone judgment. Setting aside the matter that a lot of disagreement is markedly insincere and in outright bad faith, another problem is that postponing judgment during a crisis is liable to exacerbate the crisis, leading to more uncertainty, and yet more sincere, good-faith disagreement.
If the situation changes daily (does it?), that's in part because we're allowing that to happen, and it's important to acknowledge that some actors stand to benefit from increased fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
posted by dmh at 9:57 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hmm, we might be having two different conversations here? Unless you are saying Fauci and the FDA and CDC and other medical and scientific experts we have been citing and discussing here "stand to benefit from increased fear, uncertainty, and doubt," in which case we just flatly disagree.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:16 AM on January 4, 2022
posted by PhineasGage at 10:16 AM on January 4, 2022
No, I'm remarking on what I understand to be your belief in the intrinsic worth of disagreement. I think Fauci and other experts (in the US, the UK and Europe) did the best they could, but I also think they would have done better to follow the advice of the WHO and the practice of e.g. Taiwan. Because for some reason, while there's been disagreement about virtually everything, there's also been nearly complete agreement that the virus can never be eliminated and "we must learn to live with it". That's where I disagree.
posted by dmh at 10:42 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by dmh at 10:42 AM on January 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
All of these different indicators are good for different purposes. Cases / positive tests are predictive of potential hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are predictive of potential deaths. (You could also insert ICU admissions in there if you want an additional tier of ascending "seriousness".)
Since the timing of the disease is fairly well established, we learn cases first, and then only understand later if they convert into the expected number of hospitalizations and/or deaths downstream.
My understanding of things is that omicron's progress through South Africa and the UK led to smaller-than-predicted hospitalizations and deaths. Far above zero, but a lot less than what would have been expected from delta variant. While it's not guaranteed that the situation will be identical in the US, it seems to be a plausible hypothesis. (And certainly good news if true.)
I guess one question would be, how would we operate differently if we "knew" that this would not be the case in the US? (i.e. the hospitalizations/deaths would be not be lower than expected) Are there things that medical facilities and institutions could change to be better prepared for a major wave like that?
My sense is that every hospital and clinic has been maxed out on operational readiness for a good 18 months or more now, but I don't work in the field so that could be totally mistaken.
posted by theorique at 10:52 AM on January 4, 2022
Since the timing of the disease is fairly well established, we learn cases first, and then only understand later if they convert into the expected number of hospitalizations and/or deaths downstream.
My understanding of things is that omicron's progress through South Africa and the UK led to smaller-than-predicted hospitalizations and deaths. Far above zero, but a lot less than what would have been expected from delta variant. While it's not guaranteed that the situation will be identical in the US, it seems to be a plausible hypothesis. (And certainly good news if true.)
I guess one question would be, how would we operate differently if we "knew" that this would not be the case in the US? (i.e. the hospitalizations/deaths would be not be lower than expected) Are there things that medical facilities and institutions could change to be better prepared for a major wave like that?
My sense is that every hospital and clinic has been maxed out on operational readiness for a good 18 months or more now, but I don't work in the field so that could be totally mistaken.
posted by theorique at 10:52 AM on January 4, 2022
The New York Times morning newsletter underlines why all this stuff is difficult: Pandemic Impact on Children. To summarize: academic achievement metrics down, particularly amongst Black children, Hispanic children, and children from schools with high poverty rates; increased emergency department visits for mental health emergencies amongst children; increased suicide attempts, particularly amongst young woman; increased gun violence amongst children; and increased behavior problems in schools upon return.
Not in the article, but I can say that even before the present wave of Omicron-related absences, schools were experiencing severe staffing issues due to a wave of pandemic related retirements and a decade of underfunding pre-pandemic. Those problems aren't going to resolve themselves anytime soon. Worse, we may very well decide not to address them if we can manage to sufficiently staff schools in wealthier districts where parents have more political power. The overall damage is going to linger long after this pandemic is over.
I can't read minds, but I'm every single doctor, scientist, and public health official on this planet wishes they could wave a magic wand and make SARS-COV 2 fucking disappear right now. The problem is one of the central ethical tenants of healthcare is not to do harm with medical interventions. If the interventions involve a single patient its easy to work with the patient to determine whether the benefits of an intervention outweigh the discomforts and/or risks. It gets much, much, harder when your talking about a group of people, let alone the entire population of a planet. I honestly can't say I'm certain of all the answers, and there is a reason why medical ethics is its own distinct field.
No, I'm remarking on what I understand to be your belief in the intrinsic worth of disagreement. I think Fauci and other experts (in the US, the UK and Europe) did the best they could, but I also think they would have done better to follow the advice of the WHO and the practice of e.g. Taiwan. Because for some reason, while there's been disagreement about virtually everything, there's also been nearly complete agreement that the virus can never be eliminated and "we must learn to live with it". That's where I disagree.
I'm not sure about Taiwan, but I haven't seen anything suggest the World Health Organization is committed to eliminating COVID, at least in the near term. On the contrary, I remember statements from the WHO early in the pandemic suggesting endemicity was a possible outcome.
posted by eagles123 at 10:59 AM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Not in the article, but I can say that even before the present wave of Omicron-related absences, schools were experiencing severe staffing issues due to a wave of pandemic related retirements and a decade of underfunding pre-pandemic. Those problems aren't going to resolve themselves anytime soon. Worse, we may very well decide not to address them if we can manage to sufficiently staff schools in wealthier districts where parents have more political power. The overall damage is going to linger long after this pandemic is over.
I can't read minds, but I'm every single doctor, scientist, and public health official on this planet wishes they could wave a magic wand and make SARS-COV 2 fucking disappear right now. The problem is one of the central ethical tenants of healthcare is not to do harm with medical interventions. If the interventions involve a single patient its easy to work with the patient to determine whether the benefits of an intervention outweigh the discomforts and/or risks. It gets much, much, harder when your talking about a group of people, let alone the entire population of a planet. I honestly can't say I'm certain of all the answers, and there is a reason why medical ethics is its own distinct field.
No, I'm remarking on what I understand to be your belief in the intrinsic worth of disagreement. I think Fauci and other experts (in the US, the UK and Europe) did the best they could, but I also think they would have done better to follow the advice of the WHO and the practice of e.g. Taiwan. Because for some reason, while there's been disagreement about virtually everything, there's also been nearly complete agreement that the virus can never be eliminated and "we must learn to live with it". That's where I disagree.
I'm not sure about Taiwan, but I haven't seen anything suggest the World Health Organization is committed to eliminating COVID, at least in the near term. On the contrary, I remember statements from the WHO early in the pandemic suggesting endemicity was a possible outcome.
posted by eagles123 at 10:59 AM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Because for some reason, while there's been disagreement about virtually everything, there's also been nearly complete agreement that the virus can never be eliminated and "we must learn to live with it". That's where I disagree.
At a world scale, I don't see any feasible path to elimination and I'm not sure it ever existed, particularly given the existence of animal reservoirs. Maybe at a national or sub-national scale, for some specific countries with enough resources, ability to close borders, and the willingness to impose very restrictive measures over a long period of time. The US has miserably mishandled the situation at almost every step. But so have a lot of other countries, some with much higher mortality rates.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:06 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
At a world scale, I don't see any feasible path to elimination and I'm not sure it ever existed, particularly given the existence of animal reservoirs. Maybe at a national or sub-national scale, for some specific countries with enough resources, ability to close borders, and the willingness to impose very restrictive measures over a long period of time. The US has miserably mishandled the situation at almost every step. But so have a lot of other countries, some with much higher mortality rates.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:06 AM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hi dmh, you're misreading me. I don't think disagreement is good for its own sake; I was merely pushing back on some here who think the disagreements and changing views among our medical experts and leaders were proof of insincerity, self-dealing, or bad faith. That is all.
posted by PhineasGage at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Hospitalizations in MD inflected around November 15th. We've had that metric for the better part of two months with no surge of reported cases to immediately accompany it.
Maybe next time we'll use the hospitalization data instead of handwaving cases by referencing hospitalization data that is also being ignored.
But that's not going to help anyone who's vulnerable and caught by it now, MD is up to ~35 deaths a day. Peak of the even worse times was ~75.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:25 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Maybe next time we'll use the hospitalization data instead of handwaving cases by referencing hospitalization data that is also being ignored.
But that's not going to help anyone who's vulnerable and caught by it now, MD is up to ~35 deaths a day. Peak of the even worse times was ~75.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:25 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
No one in the sane quarters of the world, especially MetaFilter, is putting a rosy glow on this continuing disaster.
I think there's a pretty fundamental disagreement here, because from where I'm sitting it looks like a lot of people, many in positions of power, are putting a rosy glow on things instead of taking the steps that are necessary to protect people. This is happening the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. I think that's true now and it's been true for much of the past two years. You may not agree, but surely you can recognize that many people do not have the same level of confidence that you do in their government based on their track record over the last two years and the data that anyone can see about what's happening with case numbers, vaccinations, hospitalizations, long Covid and so on.
posted by ssg at 12:45 PM on January 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think there's a pretty fundamental disagreement here, because from where I'm sitting it looks like a lot of people, many in positions of power, are putting a rosy glow on things instead of taking the steps that are necessary to protect people. This is happening the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. I think that's true now and it's been true for much of the past two years. You may not agree, but surely you can recognize that many people do not have the same level of confidence that you do in their government based on their track record over the last two years and the data that anyone can see about what's happening with case numbers, vaccinations, hospitalizations, long Covid and so on.
posted by ssg at 12:45 PM on January 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think one thing to remember about the child statistics - and I completely believe the academic losses are real - is that children's mental health is also experiencing A PANDEMIC. So while the interventions in some cases are almost for sure making things worse, particularly academically, some of the spike is also because of the Covid itself and worrying and illness and parental stress and distraction.
So it's a very real crisis but it may not be just due to school and community closures/public health measures.
I agree that we will need a societal-level response, and here in Canada anyway I hope we can achieve that. If we all take a breath and work hard, we could address this, if we allow students some TIME to learn what they missed.
I have one child in each category. One has done so much better with the online, one suffers tremendously when schools are virtual.
posted by warriorqueen at 2:23 PM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
So it's a very real crisis but it may not be just due to school and community closures/public health measures.
I agree that we will need a societal-level response, and here in Canada anyway I hope we can achieve that. If we all take a breath and work hard, we could address this, if we allow students some TIME to learn what they missed.
I have one child in each category. One has done so much better with the online, one suffers tremendously when schools are virtual.
posted by warriorqueen at 2:23 PM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Given how high the rates are going up right now (higher than ever around here, apparently), I'm seriously wondering at what point they are going to have hard shutdowns (as opposed to "soft shutdowns," Atlantic link, i.e. not enough staff) again. When are the schools seriously going to have to close again? When does everything close again? On the one hand, everybody's getting it and going into isolation/quarantine/whatever it is. On the other hand, in my area it looks like the worst off people are (guess what) unvaxxed, statistically speaking.
I know nobody wants to shut down and everyone's having a whopping mental crisis already, but seriously, how bad does it have to get before we pull the emergency brake again? Can we really say "hey, over 50% are fully vaxxed and people are working on getting boosted, let's just wear masks and go back to regular life and who wants to eat out tonight?" at this rate? I just don't know.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:19 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
I know nobody wants to shut down and everyone's having a whopping mental crisis already, but seriously, how bad does it have to get before we pull the emergency brake again? Can we really say "hey, over 50% are fully vaxxed and people are working on getting boosted, let's just wear masks and go back to regular life and who wants to eat out tonight?" at this rate? I just don't know.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:19 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
It depends on where you live.
There are some areas in which a hard lockdown is still legally possible, much less viable. There are many others in which lawsuits and court rulings have stripped the authority to declare such an emergency away from anyone who might choose to do so, and put it into the hands of state legislatures who have no intentions of jeopardizing their careers by acting responsibly. There is nothing on this planet that will convince a Crazification Factor's worth of your fellow humans to think of others, or even to simply think of themselves and take the step that is most likely to keep them alive. And the directive from above here in America now seems to be "It's not AS deadly a danger... so keep consuming, keep working, and you're on your own."
So cover your own ass, so to speak... protect yourself and those around you as best you can... and keep your head down for now.
posted by delfin at 5:06 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
There are some areas in which a hard lockdown is still legally possible, much less viable. There are many others in which lawsuits and court rulings have stripped the authority to declare such an emergency away from anyone who might choose to do so, and put it into the hands of state legislatures who have no intentions of jeopardizing their careers by acting responsibly. There is nothing on this planet that will convince a Crazification Factor's worth of your fellow humans to think of others, or even to simply think of themselves and take the step that is most likely to keep them alive. And the directive from above here in America now seems to be "It's not AS deadly a danger... so keep consuming, keep working, and you're on your own."
So cover your own ass, so to speak... protect yourself and those around you as best you can... and keep your head down for now.
posted by delfin at 5:06 PM on January 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hospitalization rates are currently a better thing to look at than raw case numbers if you're looking for a distillation of where we are right now. Not because daily case count increases don't lead hospital admissions, but because any daily case count you read right now is far more likely to be a gross underestimate than not.
Omicron spreads so fast that measuring its actual prevalence in the community is very difficult. If you check the number of daily new cases against the number of tests conducted, you will quickly find that since the start of the Omicron wave there has been a total explosion in the rate at which tests return positive results. That points to a very high likelihood of a huge increase in the number of total infections circulating in the community, which at this point will probably be many times the number detected by tests. And it's that total number - not the number of cases detected by testing - that drives hospitalizations.
The advantage of the hospitalization numbers is that they are not subject to anything like the inherent uncertainty of the daily test results, and because hospital stays take multiple days their counts are also naturally smoothed to some extent. And even though infections obviously do precede hospitalizations, Omicron causes illness so quickly after infection that you're really not getting more predictive power out of monitoring test result rates than you would just by calculating a trend from the hospitalization rates and working out whether or not it's approximately exponential.
In NSW, it's been looking approximately exponential to me for the last three weeks. I don't expect to see much of a change in that trend until well after the detected case numbers have once again dropped to something better approximating reality.
So public officials suggesting that hospitalizations are the best thing to track are probably not motivated by a desire to rose colour the situation. Different story of course for political leaders, many of whom appear to be functionally innumerate.
posted by flabdablet at 7:50 PM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Omicron spreads so fast that measuring its actual prevalence in the community is very difficult. If you check the number of daily new cases against the number of tests conducted, you will quickly find that since the start of the Omicron wave there has been a total explosion in the rate at which tests return positive results. That points to a very high likelihood of a huge increase in the number of total infections circulating in the community, which at this point will probably be many times the number detected by tests. And it's that total number - not the number of cases detected by testing - that drives hospitalizations.
The advantage of the hospitalization numbers is that they are not subject to anything like the inherent uncertainty of the daily test results, and because hospital stays take multiple days their counts are also naturally smoothed to some extent. And even though infections obviously do precede hospitalizations, Omicron causes illness so quickly after infection that you're really not getting more predictive power out of monitoring test result rates than you would just by calculating a trend from the hospitalization rates and working out whether or not it's approximately exponential.
In NSW, it's been looking approximately exponential to me for the last three weeks. I don't expect to see much of a change in that trend until well after the detected case numbers have once again dropped to something better approximating reality.
So public officials suggesting that hospitalizations are the best thing to track are probably not motivated by a desire to rose colour the situation. Different story of course for political leaders, many of whom appear to be functionally innumerate.
posted by flabdablet at 7:50 PM on January 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
I believe there is extremely valid criticism of almost all the experts in the Western response to the pandemic. I believe scientific certainty has worked at cross purposes to public health and that this is not a new phenomenon. It's one cigarettes' manufactures deployed. It's one that climate deniers have deployed. It's one that polluters and poisoner's deploy.
I believe public health officials have by and large failed to protect the public and allowed themselves to be muzzled and warped into betraying their roles. This goes from Fauci on down. I believe American politicians, Democrat and Republican, have corrupted public institutions for political gain. I believe the American justice system sat on its hands while the Trump administration engaged in the largest racially and politically motivated bio-terrorist attack on America that has ever been committed when the WH pandemic committee decided to let the pandemic burn because it was "a blue state problem".
The United States has three times the per capita death rate of Canada. Canada is almost exactly the same economy and an incredibly similar culture that is actually missing some advantages the United States' has like warm southern climates and lower population density. I am continually stunned that Americans don't see or refuse to see that the death rate is the fault of both their past and present leadership and their entire expert created public health infrastructure.
The sky has been falling two years and people are still saying that the people yelling are Chicken Little.
posted by srboisvert at 3:09 AM on January 5, 2022 [13 favorites]
I believe public health officials have by and large failed to protect the public and allowed themselves to be muzzled and warped into betraying their roles. This goes from Fauci on down. I believe American politicians, Democrat and Republican, have corrupted public institutions for political gain. I believe the American justice system sat on its hands while the Trump administration engaged in the largest racially and politically motivated bio-terrorist attack on America that has ever been committed when the WH pandemic committee decided to let the pandemic burn because it was "a blue state problem".
The United States has three times the per capita death rate of Canada. Canada is almost exactly the same economy and an incredibly similar culture that is actually missing some advantages the United States' has like warm southern climates and lower population density. I am continually stunned that Americans don't see or refuse to see that the death rate is the fault of both their past and present leadership and their entire expert created public health infrastructure.
The sky has been falling two years and people are still saying that the people yelling are Chicken Little.
posted by srboisvert at 3:09 AM on January 5, 2022 [13 favorites]
The NYTimes has a summary piece this morning about omicron that is a lot more positive than some of the comments here. It basically summarizes down to the data showing that omicron:
-- Is less likely to cause hospitalization: Somebody infected with Omicron is less likely to need hospital treatment than somebody infected with an earlier version of Covid.
-- Is less likely to lead to severe illness: Omicron is not just less likely to send somebody to the hospital. Even among people who need hospital care, symptoms are milder on average than among people who were hospitalized in previous waves.
-- Appears not to be yet causing a spike in deaths: In the U.S., mortality trends typically trail case trends by about three weeks — which means the Omicron surge, which began more than a month ago, should be visible in the death counts. It isn’t yet
It's not all sunshine and roses, particularly the issue that everyone here has been commenting on as well, that hospitals flooded with cases (even milder ones) are going to get swamped. But it's also not appearing to be as dire as some of the apocalyptic predictions that have been discussed: But the combination of vaccines and Omicron’s apparent mildness means that, for an individual, Covid increasingly resembles the kind of health risk that people accept every day.
That piece also linked to an oped in the Washington Post by Leana Wen, Baltimore's former health commissioner, that I thought was interesting and made good points: Here’s how to reconcile the seeming contradictions of where we are: The risk to individuals is low, while the risk to society is high. Policy solutions that demand substantial individual sacrifice will not work; instead, we need to acknowledge the public’s very real weariness and come up with practical strategies that keep society functioning.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
-- Is less likely to cause hospitalization: Somebody infected with Omicron is less likely to need hospital treatment than somebody infected with an earlier version of Covid.
-- Is less likely to lead to severe illness: Omicron is not just less likely to send somebody to the hospital. Even among people who need hospital care, symptoms are milder on average than among people who were hospitalized in previous waves.
-- Appears not to be yet causing a spike in deaths: In the U.S., mortality trends typically trail case trends by about three weeks — which means the Omicron surge, which began more than a month ago, should be visible in the death counts. It isn’t yet
It's not all sunshine and roses, particularly the issue that everyone here has been commenting on as well, that hospitals flooded with cases (even milder ones) are going to get swamped. But it's also not appearing to be as dire as some of the apocalyptic predictions that have been discussed: But the combination of vaccines and Omicron’s apparent mildness means that, for an individual, Covid increasingly resembles the kind of health risk that people accept every day.
That piece also linked to an oped in the Washington Post by Leana Wen, Baltimore's former health commissioner, that I thought was interesting and made good points: Here’s how to reconcile the seeming contradictions of where we are: The risk to individuals is low, while the risk to society is high. Policy solutions that demand substantial individual sacrifice will not work; instead, we need to acknowledge the public’s very real weariness and come up with practical strategies that keep society functioning.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
Is less likely to cause hospitalization ... Is less likely to lead to severe illness
Is more likely to overwhelm hospitals, since neither of the above lessenings is apparently enough to compensate for its vastly increased transmissibility.
Remember, back in the Before Times, when "flatten the curve" was a thing?
posted by flabdablet at 6:32 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Is more likely to overwhelm hospitals, since neither of the above lessenings is apparently enough to compensate for its vastly increased transmissibility.
Remember, back in the Before Times, when "flatten the curve" was a thing?
posted by flabdablet at 6:32 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Remember, back in the Before Times, when "flatten the curve" was a thing?
Right? The current plan in a lot of countries right now, not just in the US though we are clearly doing our best to excel at underperforming, is basically "screw it, let's gamble that the next four weeks will just be pretty bad, but not apocalyptic, and then we are hoping things will slide towards better." The kinds of interventions that would actually impact any kind of curve are just plain off the table and have been for a long time. (I mean, never mind lockdowns, we still don't have any kind of vaccine/testing requirement for domestic flights, which has to be one of the lowest of low hanging fruits, but where even the suggestion of it brings howls of outrage.)
At least here, it is starting to look like that gamble might work out at least ok-ish, but it is far too early to be sure of that, and it is such a low bar to set anyway.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:06 AM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Right? The current plan in a lot of countries right now, not just in the US though we are clearly doing our best to excel at underperforming, is basically "screw it, let's gamble that the next four weeks will just be pretty bad, but not apocalyptic, and then we are hoping things will slide towards better." The kinds of interventions that would actually impact any kind of curve are just plain off the table and have been for a long time. (I mean, never mind lockdowns, we still don't have any kind of vaccine/testing requirement for domestic flights, which has to be one of the lowest of low hanging fruits, but where even the suggestion of it brings howls of outrage.)
At least here, it is starting to look like that gamble might work out at least ok-ish, but it is far too early to be sure of that, and it is such a low bar to set anyway.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:06 AM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
srboisvert, I am genuinely interested in what you mean when you say public health officials "allowed themselves to be muzzled and warped into betraying their roles"?
posted by PhineasGage at 8:09 AM on January 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 8:09 AM on January 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
I heard it said at least a year ago. Covid-19 (and its variants) are not going away. But at some point, as far as the powers that be are concerned, they will cease to be ISSUE #1. Maybe not even health issue #1 (in my particular region, we've had more fentanyl/overdose deaths in the past few months than covid). Obviously, different countries, different states, different jurisdictions have responded differently to covid from the beginning. In autocratic China, they nailed people into their homes in some situations (or so I heard). In the rural island area where I spent the first year of Covid, locals tried but failed but shut down the ferry service, or at least restrict travel to verified locals only. But they failed because such measures were effectively martial law as far as our particular constitution views things (Canada here). Call it a failure of our system, I guess.
It does feel like life during wartime. Covid-19 launched a sneak attack (or certainly one where our leaders failed to take warnings of enemy troop movements seriously enough). And as in war, once the guns start a-blazing, you're only as good as your available troops, their training, their morale, your chain of command, your strategy, your tactics, your supply lines, your various contingencies etc. You can't stop time and remedy weaknesses and oversights, or even worry about punishing the vainglorious criminals who played the sort of populous games that allowed for such failures. In an emergency, you go with you've got, fix your focus on what can be done.
Over on Facebook, I'm currently watching two friends (both parents of young kids) tear strips off each other with regard to school closures. One's a doctor. The other's a therapist. Both are smart and informed and not known for being irrational. Both have solid points. If I had to vote on it, I'm not sure which way I'd go. I do think that covid fatigue is a thing, that unless you (or someone you love) faces dire circumstances due to underlying conditions etc, that you're starting to give more and more weight to the possibility that, as that NYT summary suggests, we're maybe not coming to the end of Covid, but reaching that vague grey line where it segues from pandemic to endemic.
I know I decided to cancel all my Christmas plans. That even with the perhaps promising data we were getting about omicron in the days before Christmas, it was too damned soon to throw in with optimism. And in one respect I was right. The Christmas dinner I was invited to but didn't attend turned out to be an infection event. Everybody present tested positive within 72 hours. But so far, so good, nobody's required hospitalization. But what about Long Covid? At least four of those present were fifty or sixty years old.
Anyway, I'm rambling. I guess I have no precise point to make here. Except, I guess, that we are where we are. And shifting back to the war analogy, the smoke hasn't entirely cleared. Nobody knows exactly what's going on. And even if these are the final days of the war, it's still NOT over. In WW2, even when Hitler's armies were almost entirely broken, reduced to fighting in the rubble of of Berlin, they were still lobbing occasional V2 rockets at London, still taking casualties. And even after that finally stopped, you still had unexploded ordnance lying around, an issue that still persists.
Covid 19 is never really going away. But it will eventually cease to be public enemy #1. Maybe it already has. I'm definitely in the "too soon to tell" camp.
posted by philip-random at 8:18 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
It does feel like life during wartime. Covid-19 launched a sneak attack (or certainly one where our leaders failed to take warnings of enemy troop movements seriously enough). And as in war, once the guns start a-blazing, you're only as good as your available troops, their training, their morale, your chain of command, your strategy, your tactics, your supply lines, your various contingencies etc. You can't stop time and remedy weaknesses and oversights, or even worry about punishing the vainglorious criminals who played the sort of populous games that allowed for such failures. In an emergency, you go with you've got, fix your focus on what can be done.
Over on Facebook, I'm currently watching two friends (both parents of young kids) tear strips off each other with regard to school closures. One's a doctor. The other's a therapist. Both are smart and informed and not known for being irrational. Both have solid points. If I had to vote on it, I'm not sure which way I'd go. I do think that covid fatigue is a thing, that unless you (or someone you love) faces dire circumstances due to underlying conditions etc, that you're starting to give more and more weight to the possibility that, as that NYT summary suggests, we're maybe not coming to the end of Covid, but reaching that vague grey line where it segues from pandemic to endemic.
I know I decided to cancel all my Christmas plans. That even with the perhaps promising data we were getting about omicron in the days before Christmas, it was too damned soon to throw in with optimism. And in one respect I was right. The Christmas dinner I was invited to but didn't attend turned out to be an infection event. Everybody present tested positive within 72 hours. But so far, so good, nobody's required hospitalization. But what about Long Covid? At least four of those present were fifty or sixty years old.
Anyway, I'm rambling. I guess I have no precise point to make here. Except, I guess, that we are where we are. And shifting back to the war analogy, the smoke hasn't entirely cleared. Nobody knows exactly what's going on. And even if these are the final days of the war, it's still NOT over. In WW2, even when Hitler's armies were almost entirely broken, reduced to fighting in the rubble of of Berlin, they were still lobbing occasional V2 rockets at London, still taking casualties. And even after that finally stopped, you still had unexploded ordnance lying around, an issue that still persists.
Covid 19 is never really going away. But it will eventually cease to be public enemy #1. Maybe it already has. I'm definitely in the "too soon to tell" camp.
posted by philip-random at 8:18 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Omicron spreads so fast that measuring its actual prevalence in the community is very difficult.
And yet the UK Office of National Statistics manages to do exactly this through random sampling of about 1/1000 every week. The results are delayed by a little bit, but today they announced results for the week ending 5 days ago. That's not perfect, but it certainly is useful information. All this discussion about how much less virulent Omicron is relies pretty heavily on the UK's good data collection.
In Denmark, they are doing about 200,000 PCR tests per day, which is enough for 25% of the population every week. Meanwhile, here in British Columbia, we can apparently only do 3% of the population per week so people with symptoms are being told not to bother.
Somehow these things are possible in other countries, yet always impossible here. This is basic public health. We've had almost two years to work on this. It's kind of bizarre, are we incapable of learning from others?
posted by ssg at 8:19 AM on January 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
And yet the UK Office of National Statistics manages to do exactly this through random sampling of about 1/1000 every week. The results are delayed by a little bit, but today they announced results for the week ending 5 days ago. That's not perfect, but it certainly is useful information. All this discussion about how much less virulent Omicron is relies pretty heavily on the UK's good data collection.
In Denmark, they are doing about 200,000 PCR tests per day, which is enough for 25% of the population every week. Meanwhile, here in British Columbia, we can apparently only do 3% of the population per week so people with symptoms are being told not to bother.
Somehow these things are possible in other countries, yet always impossible here. This is basic public health. We've had almost two years to work on this. It's kind of bizarre, are we incapable of learning from others?
posted by ssg at 8:19 AM on January 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
I do think that covid fatigue is a thing, that unless you (or someone you love) faces dire circumstances due to underlying conditions etc, that you're starting to give more and more weight to the possibility that, as that NYT summary suggests, we're maybe not coming to the end of Covid, but reaching that vague grey line where it segues from pandemic to endemic.
Covid fatigue is very much a real phenomenon. For many individuals, families, and social groups that are fortunate enough to be free from the most significant risks, the attitude seems to be "I got my shots, so in return the world owes me 'back to normal.' That was the deal." This point of view seems to be pretty resilient to external circumstances; I don't know how high case counts would need to climb before people in this headspace will reverse course and willingly self-isolate again.
One recent article in The Atlantic talked about this phenomenon from what one might call a "flyover" or non-coastal perspective.
posted by theorique at 9:29 AM on January 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
Covid fatigue is very much a real phenomenon. For many individuals, families, and social groups that are fortunate enough to be free from the most significant risks, the attitude seems to be "I got my shots, so in return the world owes me 'back to normal.' That was the deal." This point of view seems to be pretty resilient to external circumstances; I don't know how high case counts would need to climb before people in this headspace will reverse course and willingly self-isolate again.
One recent article in The Atlantic talked about this phenomenon from what one might call a "flyover" or non-coastal perspective.
posted by theorique at 9:29 AM on January 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
Covid fatigue is very much a real phenomenon. For many individuals, families, and social groups that are fortunate enough to be free from the most significant risks, the attitude seems to be "I got my shots, so in return the world owes me 'back to normal.' That was the deal."
That's so true. I've heard these exact words from multiple people.
And I don't think it's just the people at low risk, either. My medically fragile sibling is high-risk several times over and has three school-age children with varying degrees of completed vaccinations. They were among the first families here to take their kids out of school before everything started shutting down here in the US, and they were so incredibly careful for well over a year.
And then Fall 2021 comes around, and their plans to keep their elementary schooler home proved impossible: There was no virtual option, and homeschooling meant that their youngest would lose their place at a very popular school just a few blocks from their home. Losing their place meant that the kid would have to be bused to a different school if and when they chose to return to the district. So they reluctantly let the kid go, and with it, many of their precautions because our local school districts insist against using them so two sets of rules seemed pretty useless at home. The kids have sleepovers and birthday parties. The oldest works part time in a busy restaurant and at football stadiums. They've just sort of thrown their luck to the wind because it was, quite understandably, really hard to sustain that for so long, especially with kids.
posted by mochapickle at 10:11 AM on January 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
That's so true. I've heard these exact words from multiple people.
And I don't think it's just the people at low risk, either. My medically fragile sibling is high-risk several times over and has three school-age children with varying degrees of completed vaccinations. They were among the first families here to take their kids out of school before everything started shutting down here in the US, and they were so incredibly careful for well over a year.
And then Fall 2021 comes around, and their plans to keep their elementary schooler home proved impossible: There was no virtual option, and homeschooling meant that their youngest would lose their place at a very popular school just a few blocks from their home. Losing their place meant that the kid would have to be bused to a different school if and when they chose to return to the district. So they reluctantly let the kid go, and with it, many of their precautions because our local school districts insist against using them so two sets of rules seemed pretty useless at home. The kids have sleepovers and birthday parties. The oldest works part time in a busy restaurant and at football stadiums. They've just sort of thrown their luck to the wind because it was, quite understandably, really hard to sustain that for so long, especially with kids.
posted by mochapickle at 10:11 AM on January 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
And what's normal for them becomes what they perceive is normal for everyone. I'm still hanging out in isolation on Moonbase 8 because the transplant doctors say so, and while it's not ideal, it's still generally practical for my situation and setup. But in December they were shocked and even a little offended that I couldn't come and have a 3-hour sit-down indoor unmasked brunch with six other people, because that was normal for them but unthinkable for me.
posted by mochapickle at 10:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 10:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [11 favorites]
srboisvert, I am genuinely interested in what you mean when you say public health officials "allowed themselves to be muzzled and warped into betraying their roles"?
Deborah Birx has been quite open about this. Fauci also openly admits he was unwilling to directly contradict Trump during press conferences. One could argue it was calculated trade off to stay in a position of power where they could still do some good by trying to minimize the harm that others could do but they still made the trade.
My own local public health official Dr. Arwady in Chicago is pushing a kids must be in school agenda and claiming that there is no evidence of harm despite IDPH publishing a breakdown of outbreak locations showing that schools are the runaway leading driver of community outbreaks in Illinois. She has allowed herself to become a foot soldier in Mayor Lightfoot's war on the Chicago Teacher's Union rather than a public health advocate.
I think the entire public health infrastructure in the United States should be dammed to hell for it's utter failure. At best it is spectacularly incompetent and not fit for purpose at worst it is venal. Even with the medical miracle of the vaccines there are still more than a thousand people dying every day. I also think nobody in office today should be in office after the next possible elections.
posted by srboisvert at 10:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [10 favorites]
Deborah Birx has been quite open about this. Fauci also openly admits he was unwilling to directly contradict Trump during press conferences. One could argue it was calculated trade off to stay in a position of power where they could still do some good by trying to minimize the harm that others could do but they still made the trade.
My own local public health official Dr. Arwady in Chicago is pushing a kids must be in school agenda and claiming that there is no evidence of harm despite IDPH publishing a breakdown of outbreak locations showing that schools are the runaway leading driver of community outbreaks in Illinois. She has allowed herself to become a foot soldier in Mayor Lightfoot's war on the Chicago Teacher's Union rather than a public health advocate.
I think the entire public health infrastructure in the United States should be dammed to hell for it's utter failure. At best it is spectacularly incompetent and not fit for purpose at worst it is venal. Even with the medical miracle of the vaccines there are still more than a thousand people dying every day. I also think nobody in office today should be in office after the next possible elections.
posted by srboisvert at 10:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [10 favorites]
Thanks for explaining your views, srboisvert. Managing the orange menace is very different from where we are today. And re: your dramatic final paragraph I guess we'll just disagree.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 10:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
But in December they were shocked and even a little offended that I couldn't come and have a 3-hour sit-down indoor unmasked brunch with six other people, because that was normal for them but unthinkable for me.
That's too bad. I think it's very important for people who have gone "back to normal" to recognize that it's not a universal thing, that it can be a highly privileged place to be in, and that there are many people who are still taking significant precautions for a variety of reasons. Shaming somebody for having tighter covid risk constraints seems pretty unkind and unfair to me.
The whole pandemic situation really calls for people to show empathy and to see situations from the point of view of others. Including (and perhaps especially) others who may have had a very different experience of the course of the pandemic than they have.
posted by theorique at 11:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
That's too bad. I think it's very important for people who have gone "back to normal" to recognize that it's not a universal thing, that it can be a highly privileged place to be in, and that there are many people who are still taking significant precautions for a variety of reasons. Shaming somebody for having tighter covid risk constraints seems pretty unkind and unfair to me.
The whole pandemic situation really calls for people to show empathy and to see situations from the point of view of others. Including (and perhaps especially) others who may have had a very different experience of the course of the pandemic than they have.
posted by theorique at 11:14 AM on January 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
And re: your dramatic final paragraph I guess we'll just disagree.
That's not a surprise. I think I disagree with everyone right now. After I wrote that explanation I learned there is an outbreak in my Dad's LTC facility and he will soon be locked down into his room all alone with full blown senile dementia and I even more angry at everyone. I've been expecting and dreading it. We are in denial about what kind of monsters we have allowed ourselves to be.
posted by srboisvert at 12:36 PM on January 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
That's not a surprise. I think I disagree with everyone right now. After I wrote that explanation I learned there is an outbreak in my Dad's LTC facility and he will soon be locked down into his room all alone with full blown senile dementia and I even more angry at everyone. I've been expecting and dreading it. We are in denial about what kind of monsters we have allowed ourselves to be.
posted by srboisvert at 12:36 PM on January 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
We are in denial about what kind of monsters we have allowed ourselves to be.
I unfortunately more agree with you than disagree with you, srboisvert. Particularly about the denial. The tragedy of the world is not that it makes victims of us all. It's that it teaches us to make victims of each other.
posted by notoriety public at 12:56 PM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
I unfortunately more agree with you than disagree with you, srboisvert. Particularly about the denial. The tragedy of the world is not that it makes victims of us all. It's that it teaches us to make victims of each other.
posted by notoriety public at 12:56 PM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
srboisvert, I am so, so sorry. This sounds just awful.
posted by FencingGal at 1:23 PM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by FencingGal at 1:23 PM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think the entire public health infrastructure in the United States should be dammed to hell for it's utter failure. At best it is spectacularly incompetent and not fit for purpose at worst it is venal.
My take on this is that it's the industry and policy sides that need change. Every single medical person on the ground (mind I've only had my shots) has been great. But the people who manage the structure of the deal are just falling down and I assume they're constrained by business considerations they rarely publicize (patent fights, for instance), and political ones, like not funding free tests for the entire universe. Taxing everybody with more than $100B $100B could put over half a trillion dollars into the big big issues (I see): medical support and education (I have been really surprised at the lack of apparent innovation in remote learning).
posted by rhizome at 1:39 PM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
My take on this is that it's the industry and policy sides that need change. Every single medical person on the ground (mind I've only had my shots) has been great. But the people who manage the structure of the deal are just falling down and I assume they're constrained by business considerations they rarely publicize (patent fights, for instance), and political ones, like not funding free tests for the entire universe. Taxing everybody with more than $100B $100B could put over half a trillion dollars into the big big issues (I see): medical support and education (I have been really surprised at the lack of apparent innovation in remote learning).
posted by rhizome at 1:39 PM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
They've just sort of thrown their luck to the wind because it was, quite understandably, really hard to sustain that for so long
At this point the world in general isn't supporting a lot of people trying to go back into their personal bubbles for safety, either. "Flatten the curve" didn't work either, I guess. Most people probably just can't keep living in their own bubbles for however many years this takes, unless they absolutely have no choice about it and/or have a lot of privilege/money/whatever where they don't have to.
Deborah Birx has been quite open about this. Fauci also openly admits he was unwilling to directly contradict Trump during press conferences. One could argue it was calculated trade off to stay in a position of power where they could still do some good by trying to minimize the harm that others could do but they still made the trade.
Yup, that's what I thought of too. I really don't know what the hell I would have done in their shoes or if anyone else could have done better. Whistleblowers don't fare well here at all. Getting fired for being truthful only meant that someone worse was going to get the job. What the hell else could they do?
Sorry to hear that, srboisvert :(
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:48 PM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
At this point the world in general isn't supporting a lot of people trying to go back into their personal bubbles for safety, either. "Flatten the curve" didn't work either, I guess. Most people probably just can't keep living in their own bubbles for however many years this takes, unless they absolutely have no choice about it and/or have a lot of privilege/money/whatever where they don't have to.
Deborah Birx has been quite open about this. Fauci also openly admits he was unwilling to directly contradict Trump during press conferences. One could argue it was calculated trade off to stay in a position of power where they could still do some good by trying to minimize the harm that others could do but they still made the trade.
Yup, that's what I thought of too. I really don't know what the hell I would have done in their shoes or if anyone else could have done better. Whistleblowers don't fare well here at all. Getting fired for being truthful only meant that someone worse was going to get the job. What the hell else could they do?
Sorry to hear that, srboisvert :(
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:48 PM on January 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
And lest anyone try to argue that the U.S. is uniquely bad, "Virus surge tests limits of primary health care in Europe", too.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:38 PM on January 5, 2022
posted by PhineasGage at 2:38 PM on January 5, 2022
And lest anyone try to argue that the U.S. is uniquely bad, "Virus surge tests limits of primary health care in Europe", too.
The US absolutely is uniquely and indefensibly bad at covid-19.
Performing worse than almost all of Europe other than Ireland, Slovenia and Croatia if you go by test positivity (most of the large states in Europe are testing at a higher rate than the US so US case rates are big undercounts). If you want to compare on per capita deaths the US beats some of Europe's former Eastern Bloc countries. If you find comfort in a "You forgot Poland" defense of America's covid-19 response then well I guess I have no choice but to admire your determination.
posted by srboisvert at 4:53 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
The US absolutely is uniquely and indefensibly bad at covid-19.
Performing worse than almost all of Europe other than Ireland, Slovenia and Croatia if you go by test positivity (most of the large states in Europe are testing at a higher rate than the US so US case rates are big undercounts). If you want to compare on per capita deaths the US beats some of Europe's former Eastern Bloc countries. If you find comfort in a "You forgot Poland" defense of America's covid-19 response then well I guess I have no choice but to admire your determination.
posted by srboisvert at 4:53 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
You seem deeply invested in "US worst," and I have deep sympathy for what your family is going through. But these mortality data indicate the U.S. is far from the best but neither the worst at handling this crisis.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:31 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 6:31 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
The US absolutely is uniquely and indefensibly bad at covid-19.
Plenty of other countries have done worse. But the US probably achieved the greatest spread between how poorly it has performed compared to how well it could have done, given the resources we have. It's been intensely disappointing to live through.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:32 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Plenty of other countries have done worse. But the US probably achieved the greatest spread between how poorly it has performed compared to how well it could have done, given the resources we have. It's been intensely disappointing to live through.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:32 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
You seem deeply invested in "US worst," and I have deep sympathy for what your family is going through. But these mortality data indicate the U.S. is far from the best but neither the worst at handling this crisis.
posted by PhineasGage at 8:31 PM on January 6 [1 favorite +] [!]
The "You forgot Poland" argument.
I am "invested" because I live here in the US. I am also realistic about and aware of what and how other countries are doing having lived in 3 different countries and been in two countries during the pandemic with all the hassles of crossing international borders with different covid regimes (because my father is Canada). I regularly check international pandemic performance and closely monitor how all the English speaking and European countries, where the bulk of my friends live, are doing.
Here are the 25 worst countries for covid-19 deaths per 100K. It is is a bit hard to see what the other countries are due to crowding so here are the top 10 plus the US which is in the 11-25 worst countries.
If you want to switch metrics to something like excess mortality you can look at the Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker charts. Equally damming. (J. Burn-Murdoch, the dataviz guy for FT, is a solid Twitter follow for staying up to date.)
It should be humiliating to the richest nation on earth that its performance is easily in the bottom third of countries and pretty much the bottom of developed Western nations. But I guess it is also so humiliating that it is difficult psychologically to fully face up to and own.
posted by srboisvert at 7:11 AM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 8:31 PM on January 6 [1 favorite +] [!]
The "You forgot Poland" argument.
I am "invested" because I live here in the US. I am also realistic about and aware of what and how other countries are doing having lived in 3 different countries and been in two countries during the pandemic with all the hassles of crossing international borders with different covid regimes (because my father is Canada). I regularly check international pandemic performance and closely monitor how all the English speaking and European countries, where the bulk of my friends live, are doing.
Here are the 25 worst countries for covid-19 deaths per 100K. It is is a bit hard to see what the other countries are due to crowding so here are the top 10 plus the US which is in the 11-25 worst countries.
If you want to switch metrics to something like excess mortality you can look at the Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker charts. Equally damming. (J. Burn-Murdoch, the dataviz guy for FT, is a solid Twitter follow for staying up to date.)
It should be humiliating to the richest nation on earth that its performance is easily in the bottom third of countries and pretty much the bottom of developed Western nations. But I guess it is also so humiliating that it is difficult psychologically to fully face up to and own.
posted by srboisvert at 7:11 AM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Took me forever to figure out that FT chart as one can barely see "the rest of North America". Its bar being light grey sandwiched between the slightly darker grey of the US and the light green of the Middle East. Chart fail FT.
posted by Mitheral at 7:38 AM on January 8, 2022
posted by Mitheral at 7:38 AM on January 8, 2022
It should be humiliating to the richest nation on earth that its performance is easily in the bottom third of countries and pretty much the bottom of developed Western nations. But I guess it is also so humiliating that it is difficult psychologically to fully face up to and own.
It's terrible for sure. I would argue that it is more apples to apples if you compare the US to the entire EU, for a more comparable situation in terms of scale and complexity, versus comparing the US to small individual countries. At that scale, the US has over time done a bit worse, but it's not a night-and-day difference when you look at the cumulative death rates per 100k, for example, and there have been extended periods of time where the death rate in the EU was much higher than here.
But your point is correct: both the US and the EU should have done much, much better given their available resources -- both have regions (states or countries) that have done much better than the aggregate average, and if that local performance had been implemented and extended across the entire area, vastly fewer people would have died.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:00 AM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's terrible for sure. I would argue that it is more apples to apples if you compare the US to the entire EU, for a more comparable situation in terms of scale and complexity, versus comparing the US to small individual countries. At that scale, the US has over time done a bit worse, but it's not a night-and-day difference when you look at the cumulative death rates per 100k, for example, and there have been extended periods of time where the death rate in the EU was much higher than here.
But your point is correct: both the US and the EU should have done much, much better given their available resources -- both have regions (states or countries) that have done much better than the aggregate average, and if that local performance had been implemented and extended across the entire area, vastly fewer people would have died.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:00 AM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
The EU population distribution is also significant older than the US, so you would expect significantly more deaths in the EU than the US, all other things being equal, as older people are far more likely to die from Covid.
posted by ssg at 9:42 AM on January 8, 2022
posted by ssg at 9:42 AM on January 8, 2022
The US death rate is 25% higher than the EU. That's pretty significant.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:29 AM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:29 AM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
I went to the grocery store today with my wife, and it was about 80-90% masked. A few dicknosers, but most were wearing them reasonably properly. I found myself glaring at one barefaced woman who seemed adamant on using every single produce-weighing station in the store, with a visceral anger rising in me that I hadn't felt that strongly since the beginning of this pandemic.
I'm double-masked, I'm making sure my nose-wire is fully pinched, I'm overbuying so that I won't have to come back for a while, and I'm watching my wife look at one station after another with her kohlrabi in hand, and I am fuming. Yes, lady, it is illegal for me to use any methods I had in mind to MAKE you care, about yourself or about us. But maybe don't make a special effort to share whatever you may be breathing out with everyone around you?
Such a minor thing, both her annoying behavior and my own overreaction. But it's where my mind is at now, and it's only going to get worse.
Anecdata tweetthread as to what I agree is on the way.
posted by delfin at 3:22 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm double-masked, I'm making sure my nose-wire is fully pinched, I'm overbuying so that I won't have to come back for a while, and I'm watching my wife look at one station after another with her kohlrabi in hand, and I am fuming. Yes, lady, it is illegal for me to use any methods I had in mind to MAKE you care, about yourself or about us. But maybe don't make a special effort to share whatever you may be breathing out with everyone around you?
Such a minor thing, both her annoying behavior and my own overreaction. But it's where my mind is at now, and it's only going to get worse.
Anecdata tweetthread as to what I agree is on the way.
posted by delfin at 3:22 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
quoting a friend (a teacher) from Facebook:
I could be mad, scared, anxious about our district closure at the moment. But I think if I learned anything during this pandemic the last two years, there's a lot I can't control and it's just not worth spiraling over it. There's nothing I can change anyway about it, so meh? So instead, I'm going to go ahead and control what I can today on my unexpected day off. I'll do some laundry I needed to do, some cleaning ...
we are where we are.
posted by philip-random at 11:31 AM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I could be mad, scared, anxious about our district closure at the moment. But I think if I learned anything during this pandemic the last two years, there's a lot I can't control and it's just not worth spiraling over it. There's nothing I can change anyway about it, so meh? So instead, I'm going to go ahead and control what I can today on my unexpected day off. I'll do some laundry I needed to do, some cleaning ...
we are where we are.
posted by philip-random at 11:31 AM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I really want to yell at everyone I know to start wearing better masks. I bought one friend who works retail a stash of KN95's and I've seen him wear one a few times, and sometimes he goes surgical, but then he puts on his old comfy cloth one again and I'm thinking, "dude..." I know a lot of people wearing surgical these days and that's better than squat, I suppose, and I gather you can get those at the drugstore easily, but I guess all the EVERYONE GET K/N95'S RIGHT NOW messaging is not getting through to people. Nor is the "seriously, you gotta tighten up that surgical so it doesn't gap at the sides" either.
Except hell, even I'm having a hard time getting a hold of better ones since you can't just buy them at Target and Safeway and have to order online and wait around for weeks. My work ordered some and haven't gotten those yet either. So even if I did yell about it, it probably wouldn't get anyone anywhere. I ordered a pack of 50 N95's and I'm debating whether or not to distribute the bounty to everyone I'm around if/when I get them, but I suspect at least a good chunk of people would just not bother and it'd be a waste of a mask.
People are gonna do what they are gonna do. We are where we are. Wearing literally any kind of mask even if it's one piece of cloth is probably as good as we can reasonably expect from the general public and trying to get everyone to get SUPER MASKED, like everything else, is pretty futile.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:25 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Except hell, even I'm having a hard time getting a hold of better ones since you can't just buy them at Target and Safeway and have to order online and wait around for weeks. My work ordered some and haven't gotten those yet either. So even if I did yell about it, it probably wouldn't get anyone anywhere. I ordered a pack of 50 N95's and I'm debating whether or not to distribute the bounty to everyone I'm around if/when I get them, but I suspect at least a good chunk of people would just not bother and it'd be a waste of a mask.
People are gonna do what they are gonna do. We are where we are. Wearing literally any kind of mask even if it's one piece of cloth is probably as good as we can reasonably expect from the general public and trying to get everyone to get SUPER MASKED, like everything else, is pretty futile.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:25 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
I really want to yell at everyone I know to start wearing better masks. I bought one friend who works retail a stash of KN95's and I've seen him wear one a few times, and sometimes he goes surgical, but then he puts on his old comfy cloth one again and I'm thinking, "dude..." I know a lot of people wearing surgical these days and that's better than squat, I suppose, and I gather you can get those at the drugstore easily, but I guess all the EVERYONE GET K/N95'S RIGHT NOW messaging is not getting through to people. Nor is the "seriously, you gotta tighten up that surgical so it doesn't gap at the sides" either.
I got some N95s at my local Home Depot -- two 8-packs and a 20-pack that didn't look like it should've been on the shelf in the first place (says they're for drywall sanding use, "Contractor Pack - Not intended for individual resale," but they're by 3M, American-made, look legit and are labeled NIOSH Approved N95s.) Apparently, hardware stores are a fairly reliable source.
'Course, I'm hoping that all of the ones I got are as legit as they appear to be, as they're basically a dollar surcharge for any time that I go anywhere where people are. It took some digging just to find these. I also picked up disposable surgical masks that I'm using in combination with my cloth ones; that way I get a nose-seal from the former and a couple of extra layers from the latter. I'm applying triage to when to bust out the heavy-duty gear; like, tomorrow's the grocery store, that's an N95 day. When I visit the in-laws upstate, I'm considering a diver's helmet.
posted by delfin at 4:12 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I got some N95s at my local Home Depot -- two 8-packs and a 20-pack that didn't look like it should've been on the shelf in the first place (says they're for drywall sanding use, "Contractor Pack - Not intended for individual resale," but they're by 3M, American-made, look legit and are labeled NIOSH Approved N95s.) Apparently, hardware stores are a fairly reliable source.
'Course, I'm hoping that all of the ones I got are as legit as they appear to be, as they're basically a dollar surcharge for any time that I go anywhere where people are. It took some digging just to find these. I also picked up disposable surgical masks that I'm using in combination with my cloth ones; that way I get a nose-seal from the former and a couple of extra layers from the latter. I'm applying triage to when to bust out the heavy-duty gear; like, tomorrow's the grocery store, that's an N95 day. When I visit the in-laws upstate, I'm considering a diver's helmet.
posted by delfin at 4:12 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
The new categories of "vaxed-and-done" and "vaxed-and-cautious", according to The Atlantic.
posted by theorique at 4:14 PM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by theorique at 4:14 PM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just a small piece of good news (and common sense) that I hope is being replicated elsewhere:
[Montgomery County Public Schools] announced Sunday other measures aimed at keeping students and staff safe, including giving all students KN95 masks over the next two weeks, as they did for staff last week.posted by trig at 5:15 PM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
The new categories of "vaxed-and-done" and "vaxed-and-cautious", according to The Atlantic.
That's an interesting article, thanks for linking it. Personally I have moments of both, though leaning more cautious as I watch the depressing totals move upwards.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:56 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
That's an interesting article, thanks for linking it. Personally I have moments of both, though leaning more cautious as I watch the depressing totals move upwards.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:56 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
That Atlantic piece is pretty frustrating. The author mentions the risk of long Covid, then goes on to compare the risk of Covid for boosted, healthy adults under 50 to the risk from riding a bike. No, the main personal risk of Covid for that healthy adults under 50 is serious long term illness from long Covid. That risk is many, many times higher than death. That's what we should be considering, not the risk of death, which is definitely remote.
Riding a bike is actually a net positive, in general (the health benefits of biking outweigh the risk of death or injury). Even as a boosted adult, your chances of getting Omicron are pretty good if you aren't being cautious right now and that means your risk of long Covid is pretty high. These are not comparable situations. It's really unfortunate that our public health message has shifted to hospitalizations and death as the main risks, when that's not the case.
I expect better from The Atlantic, which has published some very good pieces on long Covid from Ed Yong.
posted by ssg at 6:16 PM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Riding a bike is actually a net positive, in general (the health benefits of biking outweigh the risk of death or injury). Even as a boosted adult, your chances of getting Omicron are pretty good if you aren't being cautious right now and that means your risk of long Covid is pretty high. These are not comparable situations. It's really unfortunate that our public health message has shifted to hospitalizations and death as the main risks, when that's not the case.
I expect better from The Atlantic, which has published some very good pieces on long Covid from Ed Yong.
posted by ssg at 6:16 PM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I had the same reaction to the Atlantic article. "Death from bike ?=? Death from Covid" is bad analysis, since the implications as well as likelihood of less-than-death from each are so very different.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:36 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 6:36 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Another Atlantic article: One-Way Masking Works: If you’re vaccinated, boosted, and wearing an N95, you’re protected—no matter what others are doing.
But some researchers now think that catchphrase needs an update. Though universal masking is still safest, my mask protects me too. And wearing a good-quality mask while vaccinated and boosted (which I am) protects me pretty darn well, regardless of what everyone else is doing.posted by jenfullmoon at 8:08 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
If you are vaccinated, boosted, and wearing a well-fitted N95 or similar indoors, “your risk is extremely low,” says Joseph Allen, a COVID and ventilation expert at Harvard. “I mean, there’s not much else in life that would have as low a risk as that. I would qualify your risk as de minimis.” An N95 mask filters about 95 percent of airborne particles. But two surgical masks—one on me, one on you—filter only about 91 percent, Allen wrote recently for The Washington Post. Because most people’s masks aren’t perfectly sealed onto their faces, studies show that N95s reduce the wearer’s uptake of coronavirus particles by 57 to 86 percent. And that’s on top of the protection that vaccines and boosters already offer.
The good news is that if you’re boosted and wear a high-quality mask, you’ll probably be okay anyway. Some experts even think people who are triple-vaccinated and wearing N95s can go about their normal activities. “They should feel pretty safe because the booster provides strong protection against severe outcomes, and even if infected people are present and releasing viruses into the air, a properly fitting N95 will reduce the amount you breathe in by 95 percent or more,” says Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech who specializes in airborne transmission. “The combination of vaccination with [a] booster and an N95 provides excellent protection.”
The main medical agencies - CDC and FDA - have completely failed us. Both these mindsets about omicron right now can't be correct:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/COVID-San-Francisco-staff-shortage-UCSF-16758335.php
vs.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Sonoma-County-bans-large-gatherings-advises-16765582.php
posted by PhineasGage at 8:19 PM on January 10, 2022
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/COVID-San-Francisco-staff-shortage-UCSF-16758335.php
vs.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Sonoma-County-bans-large-gatherings-advises-16765582.php
posted by PhineasGage at 8:19 PM on January 10, 2022
I still watch TWiV but of late their views puzzle me.
The TWiV hosts think vaccinated people are at low risk, so except for young children under 5 and elderly with comorbidities, we can and should pretty much open up. They think masks are not needed, nor college students studying from home. These measures only are just coddling the unvaccinated. Some of TWiV's colleagues then pointed out that public health is complicated by the fact that even when fully vaccinated, the low hospitalization and death rates for a large population still amounts to a large absolute number, which is what hospitals are worried about.
I don't get it view for another, deeper reason. Vaccine efficacy against death is > 90%. That actually leaves 5 to 10% chance of death conditioned on if you would have died being unvaccinated, and the TWiV hosts being fine with that tells me they don't have good intuition of probability. A 90% efficacy, while a triumph in vaccine design, is still merely a 10-fold reduction. Even they acknowledged that you never know, by age or whatever, who actually gets the symptoms and who doesn't. So of late I don't know what they're talking about.
posted by polymodus at 2:24 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
The TWiV hosts think vaccinated people are at low risk, so except for young children under 5 and elderly with comorbidities, we can and should pretty much open up. They think masks are not needed, nor college students studying from home. These measures only are just coddling the unvaccinated. Some of TWiV's colleagues then pointed out that public health is complicated by the fact that even when fully vaccinated, the low hospitalization and death rates for a large population still amounts to a large absolute number, which is what hospitals are worried about.
I don't get it view for another, deeper reason. Vaccine efficacy against death is > 90%. That actually leaves 5 to 10% chance of death conditioned on if you would have died being unvaccinated, and the TWiV hosts being fine with that tells me they don't have good intuition of probability. A 90% efficacy, while a triumph in vaccine design, is still merely a 10-fold reduction. Even they acknowledged that you never know, by age or whatever, who actually gets the symptoms and who doesn't. So of late I don't know what they're talking about.
posted by polymodus at 2:24 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
The US just reported 1.4 million cases yesterday and the 7 day average is now 750K cases/day.
The current 30 day case fatality rate is 0.349%.
So 4886 of yesterday's reported cases will die. 18,322 of the past week's cases will die. This is assuming the CFR stays the same (it has been steadily dropping but it is possible it will rise as the hospitals get overwhelmed - this has happened in all previous waves - and as the virus spreads to the protected vulnerable which has taken about 4 weeks in previous waves excluding the initial wave).
posted by srboisvert at 3:34 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
The current 30 day case fatality rate is 0.349%.
So 4886 of yesterday's reported cases will die. 18,322 of the past week's cases will die. This is assuming the CFR stays the same (it has been steadily dropping but it is possible it will rise as the hospitals get overwhelmed - this has happened in all previous waves - and as the virus spreads to the protected vulnerable which has taken about 4 weeks in previous waves excluding the initial wave).
posted by srboisvert at 3:34 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Even they acknowledged that you never know, by age or whatever, who actually gets the symptoms and who doesn't. So of late I don't know what they're talking about.
Does this also apply to the most significant comorbidities? I would have guessed that (e.g.) diabetes, heart disease, obesity, kidney disease, and all the other known, major comorbidities would still predict worse covid outcomes.
As far as I've read, most of this has been observed correlation and not measured causation. On the other hand, the proportion of deaths who have 1+ comorbidities is apparently still something like 95%. Recently Dr Walensky sort of put her foot in in when reporting that 75% of deaths due to omicron variant already suffered from 4+ comorbidities. This has largely been the same message on risk stratification all along - all the way back to April 2020 or thereabouts.
posted by theorique at 4:15 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Does this also apply to the most significant comorbidities? I would have guessed that (e.g.) diabetes, heart disease, obesity, kidney disease, and all the other known, major comorbidities would still predict worse covid outcomes.
As far as I've read, most of this has been observed correlation and not measured causation. On the other hand, the proportion of deaths who have 1+ comorbidities is apparently still something like 95%. Recently Dr Walensky sort of put her foot in in when reporting that 75% of deaths due to omicron variant already suffered from 4+ comorbidities. This has largely been the same message on risk stratification all along - all the way back to April 2020 or thereabouts.
posted by theorique at 4:15 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Could you please cite a source for "proportion of deaths who have 1+ comorbidities is apparently still something like 95%". This topic is too serious for casual statements from any of us non-experts that don't include a reputable citation.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:54 AM on January 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:54 AM on January 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Does this also apply to the most significant comorbidities? I would have guessed that (e.g.) diabetes, heart disease, obesity, kidney disease, and all the other known, major comorbidities would still predict worse covid outcomes.
This issue was unclear to me, because like you say, diabetes is recognized as one of the major comorbidities, but one of the hosts on TWiV repeatedly emphasized that their father and mother have things like cancer and so forth but got literally zero symptoms while being infected. So in this loose sense they were saying that being 90 years of age with various old age issues predicts nothing about whether an individual will be affected severely by covid or not. But then they kind of used this point to suggest or insinuate that beyond getting vaccinated, it's pretty much your own sense of risk at this point, so exercise reasonable caution as we each deem fit. Vincent Racaniello said he wears masks around his elderly father, but Amy Rosenfeld said she doesn't around hers. They did take the different position that for children under 5, parents should exercise care and caution with them. Overall, though, both were strongly saying that people are testing way too excessively now. (I would imagine they would agree that kidney issues = more careful.)
posted by polymodus at 5:13 AM on January 11, 2022
This issue was unclear to me, because like you say, diabetes is recognized as one of the major comorbidities, but one of the hosts on TWiV repeatedly emphasized that their father and mother have things like cancer and so forth but got literally zero symptoms while being infected. So in this loose sense they were saying that being 90 years of age with various old age issues predicts nothing about whether an individual will be affected severely by covid or not. But then they kind of used this point to suggest or insinuate that beyond getting vaccinated, it's pretty much your own sense of risk at this point, so exercise reasonable caution as we each deem fit. Vincent Racaniello said he wears masks around his elderly father, but Amy Rosenfeld said she doesn't around hers. They did take the different position that for children under 5, parents should exercise care and caution with them. Overall, though, both were strongly saying that people are testing way too excessively now. (I would imagine they would agree that kidney issues = more careful.)
posted by polymodus at 5:13 AM on January 11, 2022
Could you please cite a source for "proportion of deaths who have 1+ comorbidities is apparently still something like 95%". This topic is too serious for casual statements from any of us non-experts that don't include a reputable citation.
I've been keeping an eye on the proportion of deaths that are "covid alone" versus "covid with comorbidities" since the pandemic took off, and the numbers usually quoted are something like 94-95% (a common number that you see is that covid is alone on the death certificate in about 6% of cases). These numbers have been pretty consistent through the whole course of the pandemic, although I haven't kept track of every reference I've read since last March or so.
Here's an example of what you typically see. One big retrospective study in a CDC journal says, with respect to hospitalizations in particular (emphasis added):
posted by theorique at 5:37 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I've been keeping an eye on the proportion of deaths that are "covid alone" versus "covid with comorbidities" since the pandemic took off, and the numbers usually quoted are something like 94-95% (a common number that you see is that covid is alone on the death certificate in about 6% of cases). These numbers have been pretty consistent through the whole course of the pandemic, although I haven't kept track of every reference I've read since last March or so.
Here's an example of what you typically see. One big retrospective study in a CDC journal says, with respect to hospitalizations in particular (emphasis added):
Among 4,899,447 hospitalized adults in PHD-SR, 540,667 (11.0%) were patients with COVID-19, of whom 94.9% had at least 1 underlying medical condition. Essential hypertension (50.4%), disorders of lipid metabolism (49.4%), and obesity (33.0%) were the most common. The strongest risk factors for death were obesity (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.27–1.33), anxiety and fear-related disorders (aRR = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.25–1.31), and diabetes with complication (aRR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.24–1.28), as well as the total number of conditions, with aRRs of death ranging from 1.53 (95% CI, 1.41–1.67) for patients with 1 condition to 3.82 (95% CI, 3.45–4.23) for patients with more than 10 conditions (compared with patients with no conditions).One significant comorbidity appears to increase risk of hospitalization by ~50% while ten (!) increases it by ~280%. I'll see if I can track down a similar reference for deaths in particular.
posted by theorique at 5:37 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Recently there have been increasing doubts expressed here on the blue about TWiV. If they are now suggesting personal anecdotes are meaningful data, that further undermines the view that they are reliable source of guidance. Basically "being 90 years of age with various old age issues predicts nothing about whether an individual will be affected severely by covid or not“ isn't supported by the actual data.
posted by PhineasGage at 5:38 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 5:38 AM on January 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Well no, I don't think that's fair to TWiV at all. Statistics can never guarantee anything about an individual. I think in part they were emphasizing that point. They weren't saying that health factors don't affect the risk, they were saying that for otherwise healthy middle aged adults (like themselves), it's actually okay to go maskless. And that last bit is kind of odd and I haven't decided yet if they're right.
What's great about TWiV is that they're willing to change their minds but are quite sharp at identifying the correct reason. As an example, they were very skeptical of boosters, but after reviewing studies at the end of the year, they decided that boosters provide a critical maturation of memory immunity, and so boosters should be taken preferably 8 months or more after the previous shot (6 months minimum, 1 year would be terrific). That explanation clearly is not a mainstream position (the mainstream position is still the antibodies/forcefield narrative, and only recently has the US federal government under Fauci started to change course on this as well), but TWiV was probably the first authoritative source to call it out because they stand on 40 years of validated theory and being university professors actually doing the research and teaching in that field, unlike some other doctors being amplified by journalists or twitter, or certain public health authorities, or certain pharmaceutical companies, etc.
posted by polymodus at 6:15 AM on January 11, 2022
What's great about TWiV is that they're willing to change their minds but are quite sharp at identifying the correct reason. As an example, they were very skeptical of boosters, but after reviewing studies at the end of the year, they decided that boosters provide a critical maturation of memory immunity, and so boosters should be taken preferably 8 months or more after the previous shot (6 months minimum, 1 year would be terrific). That explanation clearly is not a mainstream position (the mainstream position is still the antibodies/forcefield narrative, and only recently has the US federal government under Fauci started to change course on this as well), but TWiV was probably the first authoritative source to call it out because they stand on 40 years of validated theory and being university professors actually doing the research and teaching in that field, unlike some other doctors being amplified by journalists or twitter, or certain public health authorities, or certain pharmaceutical companies, etc.
posted by polymodus at 6:15 AM on January 11, 2022
Comorbidities are incredibly common. We talk about this like there's a large group of healthy adults and a small group of people with these risk factors, but that's wrong. Among American adults, 42% are obese, 27% have hypertension, 22% have a lipid disorder, 10% have diabetes, 10% have an anxiety disorder, and so on. A majority of American adults have one or more comorbidities (and this analysis doesn't even include the most common, obesity).
Beyond the statistics, do we really care so little about our neighbours that we don't want to try to protect those who are more vulnerable? Are we fine with people dying if they had high blood pressure? Depression? What about disabled people? I think this line of argument leads down a pretty dark path.
posted by ssg at 7:01 AM on January 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
Beyond the statistics, do we really care so little about our neighbours that we don't want to try to protect those who are more vulnerable? Are we fine with people dying if they had high blood pressure? Depression? What about disabled people? I think this line of argument leads down a pretty dark path.
posted by ssg at 7:01 AM on January 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
Oh, people do care. It's just that caring in a practical way at this point and for so long resides in a direct conflict with daily lives. Especially now, where we're miles beyond the point where avoiding crowds and wearing a surgical mask and getting vaccinated -- the combination of things that cautious people were willing to do -- was considered a pretty safe bet. It looks so feasible in retrospect.
In my case as a transplant patient, my guidance from the transplant program has been to meet people outdoors only, 1-2 at a time, with folks who are vaccinated or masked. My one exception for indoor visits was one particular vaccinated relative who'd been my care partner through my illness. But with omicron going vertical here, and with my relative having mandatory medical appointments for an emerging health concern, and also having other family that needs them, we've decided to postpone indoor visits for now.
So even for someone who I know for a fact genuinely cares on a personal level, it's impossible for them to drop everything for the sole purpose of keeping me safe and to completely isolate long-term the way I've been doing due to the risk level. I think so many people are having to make those choices, having to assess those risks against the practicality, and just trying to do the best they can.
posted by mochapickle at 8:44 AM on January 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
In my case as a transplant patient, my guidance from the transplant program has been to meet people outdoors only, 1-2 at a time, with folks who are vaccinated or masked. My one exception for indoor visits was one particular vaccinated relative who'd been my care partner through my illness. But with omicron going vertical here, and with my relative having mandatory medical appointments for an emerging health concern, and also having other family that needs them, we've decided to postpone indoor visits for now.
So even for someone who I know for a fact genuinely cares on a personal level, it's impossible for them to drop everything for the sole purpose of keeping me safe and to completely isolate long-term the way I've been doing due to the risk level. I think so many people are having to make those choices, having to assess those risks against the practicality, and just trying to do the best they can.
posted by mochapickle at 8:44 AM on January 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
For me, the comorbidities discussion is aimed in the short term at understanding who is at greater risk in order to help protect them.
Knowing that these factors lead to increased risk means that friends and family of people with these conditions can encourage their higher-risk loved ones to take greater precautions - help them get the vaccine, avoid visiting them with cold symptoms, recommend they don't hang out in crowds, stuff like that.
posted by theorique at 11:09 AM on January 11, 2022
Knowing that these factors lead to increased risk means that friends and family of people with these conditions can encourage their higher-risk loved ones to take greater precautions - help them get the vaccine, avoid visiting them with cold symptoms, recommend they don't hang out in crowds, stuff like that.
posted by theorique at 11:09 AM on January 11, 2022
Comorbidities are incredibly common.
I'd be curious to know what the standard is for "obesity," but I did seem to find that "essential hypertension" is >140/90 (though they split them out as separate conditions). Judging from what I've been getting treated for and what I know about my own health, I'd think quite a few people have that kind of blood pressure.
posted by rhizome at 11:29 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'd be curious to know what the standard is for "obesity," but I did seem to find that "essential hypertension" is >140/90 (though they split them out as separate conditions). Judging from what I've been getting treated for and what I know about my own health, I'd think quite a few people have that kind of blood pressure.
posted by rhizome at 11:29 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
It used to be anathema for people to say Covid is just the flu, but flu has comorbidities too, and in a post-vaccinated Covid world (that is, at the individually vaccinated level) the question is whether these NPI precautions we lay people are taking now are excessive relative to what we don't do with the flu. I.e. given the science what's the internally consistent behavior wrt. the risk levels of both diseases. When the TWiV scientists say people and businesses and universities and hospitals are actually testing too much their claim is that the vast majority of people will be just fine and symptomless. Just like the flu.
What I don't have is the evidence for or against that position.
posted by polymodus at 11:41 AM on January 11, 2022
What I don't have is the evidence for or against that position.
posted by polymodus at 11:41 AM on January 11, 2022
one of the hosts on TWiV repeatedly emphasized that their father and mother have things like cancer and so forth but got literally zero symptoms while being infected. So in this loose sense they were saying that being 90 years of age with various old age issues predicts nothing about whether an individual will be affected severely by covid or not.
Yeah, my therapist's mom is 98, in NYC, has cancer, got Covid and...pretty much okay with not too much in the way of symptoms. Heck if anyone knows, it seems.
I read this: "A senior administration official argued an effort to send N95 or KN95 masks to Americans would make little difference because "half the country won't wear any mask." "It may be popular in certain corners of Twitter, but for masking to work as a public health tool, people need to actually wear them," the official said. "To prevent spread, the focus should be maximizing the number of people simply wearing a mask in the first place, not shifting the goal posts to urge everyone to go above and beyond to use high filtration masks to make it less likely they themselves will inhale particles.”
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:26 PM on January 11, 2022
Yeah, my therapist's mom is 98, in NYC, has cancer, got Covid and...pretty much okay with not too much in the way of symptoms. Heck if anyone knows, it seems.
I read this: "A senior administration official argued an effort to send N95 or KN95 masks to Americans would make little difference because "half the country won't wear any mask." "It may be popular in certain corners of Twitter, but for masking to work as a public health tool, people need to actually wear them," the official said. "To prevent spread, the focus should be maximizing the number of people simply wearing a mask in the first place, not shifting the goal posts to urge everyone to go above and beyond to use high filtration masks to make it less likely they themselves will inhale particles.”
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:26 PM on January 11, 2022
Sorry, with kindness and respect, neither of these individual situations has anything to tell us about the pandemic or the risks to elderly individuals, just as "Hey, I rolled snake eyes twice! " doesn't say anything about the how many double-one results will come up in a thousand or a million rolls. "Heck if anyone knows, it seems" isn't even close to correct. Two isolated individual situations are irrelevant when we have data on millions of seniors and the brutal, aggregate health risks of COVID for that population.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:34 PM on January 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 4:34 PM on January 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
That's certainly true. It's just weird that there are random outliers like that, statistically speaking. It is kind of weird.
In other news, don't you just love how this tennis guy straight up lied about being infected and then proceeded to parade around with people, maskless, and then flew to Australia, and lied about the whole thing? NYT link. I'm so disgusted. I really want Australia to kick him out so bad. Yes, he IS a danger to public health, literally.
On a related note, someone I know has a live-in family member with Covid, is boosted/asymptomatic, and is apparently refusing to get tested and is continuing to go about his side jobs in restaurants anyway. To which I am all , I am out of your lives IRL for quite some time if you're doing that. The ill person is all "well, I can't stop him," and that's certainly true, but....dude, you know it's likely, and you are hanging out with elderly (albeit vaxxed) people who don't like mask-wearing in those venues. I just can't with this.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:51 PM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
In other news, don't you just love how this tennis guy straight up lied about being infected and then proceeded to parade around with people, maskless, and then flew to Australia, and lied about the whole thing? NYT link. I'm so disgusted. I really want Australia to kick him out so bad. Yes, he IS a danger to public health, literally.
On a related note, someone I know has a live-in family member with Covid, is boosted/asymptomatic, and is apparently refusing to get tested and is continuing to go about his side jobs in restaurants anyway. To which I am all , I am out of your lives IRL for quite some time if you're doing that. The ill person is all "well, I can't stop him," and that's certainly true, but....dude, you know it's likely, and you are hanging out with elderly (albeit vaxxed) people who don't like mask-wearing in those venues. I just can't with this.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:51 PM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
In other news, don't you just love how this tennis guy straight up lied about being infected and then proceeded to parade around with people, maskless, and then flew to Australia, and lied about the whole thing? NYT link. I'm so disgusted. I really want Australia to kick him out so bad. Yes, he IS a danger to public health, literally.
In practice, I think the Venn diagram of "people who refuse to get vaccinated" and "people who take other covid precautions and rules seriously" is close to zero.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:09 AM on January 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
In practice, I think the Venn diagram of "people who refuse to get vaccinated" and "people who take other covid precautions and rules seriously" is close to zero.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:09 AM on January 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
In practice, I think the Venn diagram of "people who refuse to get vaccinated" and "people who take other covid precautions and rules seriously" is close to zero.
Agreed, with a certain caveat - I have met several people who show a lot of diligence in pursuing "alternative" precautions and rules that are not considered mainstream. For example, somebody who takes his weekly ivermectin and practices nasal lavage with iodine solution when he gets home from being in public.
People who are proudly and noisily unvaccinated are almost always unwilling to wear a mask. However, the reverse doesn't seem to hold: people without masks might be antivax, or they might be vaccinated and feel sufficiently protected.
posted by theorique at 7:55 AM on January 12, 2022
Agreed, with a certain caveat - I have met several people who show a lot of diligence in pursuing "alternative" precautions and rules that are not considered mainstream. For example, somebody who takes his weekly ivermectin and practices nasal lavage with iodine solution when he gets home from being in public.
People who are proudly and noisily unvaccinated are almost always unwilling to wear a mask. However, the reverse doesn't seem to hold: people without masks might be antivax, or they might be vaccinated and feel sufficiently protected.
posted by theorique at 7:55 AM on January 12, 2022
nasal lavage with iodine solution when he gets home from being in public
That sounds horribly damaging to mucous membranes to me. Iodine is harsh stuff. I would certainly not risk flooding the insides of my own face with it on the regular, any more than I'd gargle bleach.
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on January 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
That sounds horribly damaging to mucous membranes to me. Iodine is harsh stuff. I would certainly not risk flooding the insides of my own face with it on the regular, any more than I'd gargle bleach.
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on January 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
In other news, don't you just love how this tennis guy straight up lied about being infected and then proceeded to parade around with people, maskless, and then flew to Australia, and lied about the whole thing? NYT link. I'm so disgusted. I really want Australia to kick him out so bad. Yes, he IS a danger to public health, literally.
Now widely known as Novax DjoCovid. I wonder how his endorsements are doing?
posted by srboisvert at 8:06 AM on January 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Now widely known as Novax DjoCovid. I wonder how his endorsements are doing?
posted by srboisvert at 8:06 AM on January 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
For me the point of the Djocovid debacle was not so much the existence of over-wealthy, over-entitled, over-praised, low-information sports types - those are such a given as to be a total cliche - but the characteristically idiotic design of the Australian Government's response to dealing with them.
posted by flabdablet at 8:11 AM on January 12, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 8:11 AM on January 12, 2022
We Don’t Talk About COVID - “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” Parody
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:19 AM on January 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:19 AM on January 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Now widely known as Novax DjoCovid. I wonder how his endorsements are doing?
Watch, he'll retire at the end of the season and take up a third chair on the Diamond and Silk show (who were fired from Fox for Covid misinformation).
posted by rhizome at 12:14 PM on January 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Watch, he'll retire at the end of the season and take up a third chair on the Diamond and Silk show (who were fired from Fox for Covid misinformation).
posted by rhizome at 12:14 PM on January 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
HAHAHAHAHAH HIS VISA WAS CANCELED AGAIN HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:12 AM on January 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:12 AM on January 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
15-40
posted by flabdablet at 9:16 AM on January 14, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 9:16 AM on January 14, 2022
HAHAHAHAHAH HIS VISA WAS CANCELED AGAIN HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
It'll be really interesting to see if he has wait 3 years to apply again like a mere plebe would. If so that is remarkable unforced error by Djokovic and his management for contesting the initial ruling.
posted by srboisvert at 2:35 PM on January 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
It'll be really interesting to see if he has wait 3 years to apply again like a mere plebe would. If so that is remarkable unforced error by Djokovic and his management for contesting the initial ruling.
posted by srboisvert at 2:35 PM on January 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
I have met several people who show a lot of diligence in pursuing "alternative" precautions and rules that are not considered mainstream. For example, somebody who takes his weekly ivermectin and practices nasal lavage with iodine solution when he gets home from being in public.
A friend-of-a-friend is in this camp (dunno about nasal lavage, but an ivermectin enthusiast). He has contracted what everyone around him understands to be Covid but which he is in denial about. It's just a bad cold. It can't be Covid, you see, because he takes ivermectin.
Incidentally, I mentioned way upthread that in Ontario's government stopped as of January 1 tracking Covid cases in schools. Southern Ontario is a few hours into a pretty major snowstorm right now; Twitter user OntarioEducatorDad (@DadEducator) posted this yesterday:
A friend-of-a-friend is in this camp (dunno about nasal lavage, but an ivermectin enthusiast). He has contracted what everyone around him understands to be Covid but which he is in denial about. It's just a bad cold. It can't be Covid, you see, because he takes ivermectin.
Incidentally, I mentioned way upthread that in Ontario's government stopped as of January 1 tracking Covid cases in schools. Southern Ontario is a few hours into a pretty major snowstorm right now; Twitter user OntarioEducatorDad (@DadEducator) posted this yesterday:
BREAKING NEWS: Ahead of massive winter storm, Ontario empowering families to self-gauge how much snow is falling, will not be measuring total snowfall or reporting driving conditions, road closures or accidents.posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:32 PM on January 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Omicron subvariant BA.2 raises new questions about puzzling evolution of virus behind COVID-19
posted by eviemath at 4:26 AM on January 27, 2022
posted by eviemath at 4:26 AM on January 27, 2022
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This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
Dec. 29, 2021 -- The CDC has significantly revised the estimate of the percentage of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S. caused by the Omicron variant.
As of Saturday, Omicron accounted for about 59% of U.S. infections, according to the latest CDC data updated Tuesday. Last week, the CDC said Omicron made up 73% of all cases as of Dec. 18, which has now been revised to 22.5% of cases.
We're probably seeing the impact on hospitalizations of those Delta cases now.
posted by eagles123 at 10:16 PM on December 31, 2021 [1 favorite]