Reflections on Jan. 6
January 6, 2022 9:03 AM   Subscribe

Trump’s Next Coup Has Already Begun: January 6 was practice. Donald Trump’s GOP is much better positioned to subvert the next election. posted by NotLost (182 comments total) 29 users marked this as a favorite
 
Could a mod add a "USpolitics" or "potus45" tag to this so it gets caught by the "hide US politics" filter?
posted by basalganglia at 9:08 AM on January 6, 2022 [21 favorites]


It's not really a "next coup" -- it's the same one, and it's not even hiding itself. Death threats to Republican elections officials who did their jobs faithfully, and certainly won't be around for the next one, replaced by GOP officials who don't even have the professional pride to do their jobs well whether they win or lose.

I don't want to be early in the thread prophesying doom and gloom, but everyone reading this needs to prepare for what's coming. A concerted, persistent, and much more competent effort to make the federal government a one-party state. If we're lucky (for certain values of lucky), it'll look like illiberal democracies like Hungary or Turkey. If relatively unlucky, the US will be full-on mafia state like Russia.

People who are dismayed at the prospect would do well not to be in denial about it. The ones working smartly and assiduously to bring it about are not in denial about what they can accomplish, and what they stand to win when they do.
posted by tclark at 9:13 AM on January 6, 2022 [51 favorites]


“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a comment saying 'Surely this'—for ever.”
posted by chavenet at 9:18 AM on January 6, 2022 [87 favorites]


Modern Republicans use power when they have it and have rarely cared about the perception of that use. The greatest example of this is Mitch McConnell. In Trump they found someone who didn't care about the perception or proper use of power. A perfect fit that pushed them completely out of the realm of Constitutionality.

Modern Democrats dither. When they do fight, they're fighting two battles ago, not today. They are overly-concerned with institutionality and the use of power. They want to be perceived as fair (even when they aren't being fair).

And so in modern Democrats, modern Republicans have found the perfect opponent. Anyone can see the results of almost 30 years of this now.
posted by Captaintripps at 9:20 AM on January 6, 2022 [34 favorites]


I would like to ask, also, that those reading this spare a moment to think about DC and the people who live and work in and near it; this was a national event but it was also a local event and it came on the heels of a number of frankly terrifying right-wing actions in DC in the preceding months, including a night on which the Proud Boys stabbed someone. Last January 6th was a scary time to live here and to know these people were in our city, not just at the Capitol, and that we were and are extremely vulnerable.

I initially wrote this comment about the Inauguration but I think a lot of what I said holds true for January 6th as well; fascists DID flood into the city, openly violating DC's gun laws, and this will keep happening and we need to keep pushing back and working together to protect the most vulnerable members of our community.
posted by an octopus IRL at 9:23 AM on January 6, 2022 [57 favorites]


(Apologies, upon re-reading that comment I l inked was NOT actually about the Inauguration, it was just general and it turns out to have been, unfortunately, fairly prescient I think)
posted by an octopus IRL at 9:27 AM on January 6, 2022


Oddly enough, I just queued up this essay, arguing that trump may be installed in the presidency in '24 by GOP state governments, and if that happens, the USA will cease to exist.

That's not scary at all.
posted by adamrice at 9:27 AM on January 6, 2022 [10 favorites]


the USA will cease to exist.

It will continue to exist, it will be just completely "mask off" at that point. Acting like we'll drop the name "USA" or something or that it "doesn't exist because it no longer represents..." is some nationalistic fucking garbage that ignores our bloody awful history, the kind of nationalism that fed Trump's rise to power. USA isn't fucking special or exceptional, and it's institutions will continue to exist, even after a fascist coup. They won't change the name to fucking Trumpland with the capitol of Reagan City. After all, as conservatives, they have to pretend they give a shit about history and tradition. They won't drop all the trappings of "America" when it's all so very useful to them, propaganda-wise.
posted by deadaluspark at 9:43 AM on January 6, 2022 [30 favorites]


The dumbest timeline is that Trump manages to win fairly in 2024 but still steals at least one state electoral slate that went blue, maybe Wisconsin. This would be covered as a nothingburger ("sure, they stole Wisconsin, but they would have won anyway, so who's to say how bad it was?").
posted by BungaDunga at 9:44 AM on January 6, 2022 [10 favorites]


adamrice: "That's not scary at all."

The "plan" laid out here is basically what Trump & Co. tried in 2020 and ... it didn't work.
posted by chavenet at 9:45 AM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


It didn't work because they hadn't sufficiently coopted state electoral boards or gotten state legislatures to pass laws empowering themselves to select the electors themselves. They realized their mistake and are working really hard to get that stuff ready for next time.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:48 AM on January 6, 2022 [72 favorites]


The "plan" laid out here is basically what Trump & Co. tried in 2020 and ... it didn't work.

Almost entirely because the co-conspirators were not yet in place. That oversight is being remedied.
posted by tclark at 9:49 AM on January 6, 2022 [19 favorites]


Also it didn't work because if the electors hadn't been counted by January 20th, we'd have gotten President Nancy Pelosi. A Republican House could appoint Trump Speaker of the House, and when Biden's term expires, Trump is installed automatically. They just have to prevent the electors being appointed, or failing that, the vote count happening.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:53 AM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


I appreciated that NPR this morning clearly used the language of extremism and radicalization to talk about where Republican voters in America are heading. Why fringe movements now include middle-class Americans with jobs and families.
posted by Nelson at 9:55 AM on January 6, 2022 [6 favorites]


After all, as conservatives, they have to pretend they give a shit about history and tradition. They won't drop all the trappings of "America" when it's all so very useful to them, propaganda-wise.

Indeed, expect a doubling-down on all the waving flags, bald eagles, and other American symbols, because they love that shit. At least Hitler hired a guy with style to design the uniforms.
posted by briank at 9:56 AM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


In the spirit of acknowledging the way this affected people in DC, DCist has a piece from last January 12th where they spoke with residents of Wards 7 and 8, which are largely Black, about their reactions to the attempted coup; I think they make some really good points, including the difference between the way law enforcement reacted (or didn't react) on January 6th vs. the response to the BLM protests the previous year, which were...not gentle.
posted by an octopus IRL at 10:02 AM on January 6, 2022 [17 favorites]


I kinda want people calling that odious Congresswoman a traitor for wanting secession/civil war to cool their jets, because secession of the West Coast might be the best option going forward . . . The California Republic already has the flag they need!
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:02 AM on January 6, 2022


I'm kinda hoping that I can make it to California when the shit hits the fan, yeah. I also wonder what other countries will accept me as a refugee... Sigh.
posted by Jacen at 10:14 AM on January 6, 2022


…everyone reading this needs to prepare for what’s coming
BY VOTING! In every single election in your area. Engagement CAN stop these yahoos, endless handwringing and conversations - not so much. They are winning elections because of this. The best way to stop that? Do your duty and vote. Get engaged.
Actually do the thing most of us don’t do - turnout is dismal in local elections, and the right counts on that . Make them wrong!
posted by dbmcd at 10:21 AM on January 6, 2022 [42 favorites]


I thought this was very relevant:

Pape drew an analogy to Northern Ireland in the late 1960s, at the dawn of the Troubles. “In 1968, 13 percent of Catholics in Northern Ireland said that the use of force for Irish nationalism was justified,” he said. “The Provisional IRA was created shortly thereafter with only a few hundred members.” Decades of bloody violence followed. And 13 percent support was more than enough, in those early years, to sustain it.

It's not the case that either these cases are just lone cranks *or* they will successfully take full dictatorial control of the US at the next election. There is a very broad range of nasty outcomes that result in long low-grade civil wars instead.
posted by atrazine at 10:21 AM on January 6, 2022 [20 favorites]


The California Republic already has the flag they need!

So does Cascadia!
posted by bink at 10:38 AM on January 6, 2022


It didn't work because they hadn't sufficiently coopted state electoral boards or gotten state legislatures to pass laws empowering themselves to select the electors themselves. They realized their mistake and are working really hard to get that stuff ready for next time.

The other half of the equation is that Trump thought he could consolidate the military under his control as C&C which was a huge mistake. Most of the top brass of the military is committed to the peaceful transition of power and can throw a lot of wrenches in the machine to stop a potential fascist.

If on the other hand Trump had called up all his cop union buddies November 4th instead of Mark Esper we'd probably be sitting in a fascist USA right now.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:38 AM on January 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


Engagement CAN stop these yahoos, endless handwringing and conversations - not so much. They are winning elections because of this. The best way to stop that? Do your duty and vote. Get engaged.

Voting is good and more people should do it, but it can't overcome the systemic problems that are leading us into a white supremacist theocracy. The right is winning elections because of voter suppression, gerrymandering, and propaganda. They are preparing to steal electors. Vote Blue No Matter Who isn't going to beat that. Democratic politicians are focusing on voter turnout because they aren't willing or able to deal with the systemic issues that are going to guarantee they lose. When they lose (and they are going to lose), they'll blame the voters and the left and BLM and defund the police and whoever else they can scapegoat instead of facing their own failure.
posted by Mavri at 10:40 AM on January 6, 2022 [53 favorites]


What I find to be the most infuriating thing about the coup attempt is the ludicrous whitewashing attempts by the GOP are being endorsed and rebroadcast by the media endlessly. The attempts at rationalizing our slow decline into outright fascism has gotten to the point where there are now meta-meta thinkpieces about it.

As an armchair student of history, I feel like I can't be the only one who thinks that this is gonna end with a massive, violent bloodletting at some point. As much almost casual talk there is today about civil war and whether is would be justified in any way really says a lot about how little history you've read/heard and how few of it's lessons you have learned. Gen. Sherman's famous quote for example, and how on point it is in 2022.

...because secession of the West Coast might be the best option going forward . . . The California Republic already has the flag they need!

Sure, but you visibly don't have the water you need. So, good luck with that. FYGM, amirite?

posted by Sphinx at 10:41 AM on January 6, 2022 [12 favorites]


Adam Serwer in The Atlantic today: “Democrats Will Have to Do More to Save Democracy From Trump”
As 2022 begins, the risk American democracy faces is not just that Donald Trump supporters will repeat the events of January 6, 2021—attempting to overturn a free and fair election to illegitimately install Trump as president. It is that Trump will win outright, and use his second term in office to further erode popular sovereignty.
(Despite the article title, the URL is “biden-must-prove-trumpism-fails-democracy” and the page title is “Democrats are Dooming Democracy’s Future”. I hate these inconsistencies.)
posted by Going To Maine at 10:53 AM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


Why waan't Trump charged with treason or at least sedition or incitement to riot?

Are the rich really that immune?

(I know the answer is yes but the question needs to be asked)
posted by lon_star at 10:54 AM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


Voting is good and more people should do it, but it can't overcome the systemic problems that are leading us into a white supremacist theocracy. The right is winning elections because of voter suppression, gerrymandering, and propaganda. They are preparing to steal electors. Vote Blue No Matter Who isn't going to beat that.

The biggest systemic problem is the baked-in, rigid TWO PARTY polity. The Hatfields will never support the McCoys, no matter how whacko the current head Hatfield is. So anything is fair game if it leads to power. Both parties do it; it's just that the GOP is currently more shameless about getting and locking in their grip on power. And they seem better (or more ruthless) at it.
posted by Artful Codger at 11:02 AM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


Read a lot of articles talking about a 2nd U.S. Civil War since Trump took office, more or less. The most common sentiment seems to be in line with atrazine's point. This time around, there would be no clear geographic division.

I grew up in Cascadia, and I heard a lot in school about the things that tie the region together, along the model that's shown up a lot lately about there being multiple intra-nations in the U.S. But in reality? If Cascadia seceded, it would be almost immediately embroiled in its own civil war, between parties roughly divided by the Cascades. California obviously has similar internal divisions. I don't think there's a "getting out of this" for any U.S.-ian.

I appreciate the link to the article (and related), NotLost. I have little faith in my ability to help move a political party en masse in any direction, nor do I believe most of us have much ability to affect the behavior of billionaires, so I'm trying to stick to voting consistently, and helping to bring about local change in my small daily sphere of influence.
posted by cupcakeninja at 11:05 AM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


because secession of the West Coast might be the best option going forward . . . The California Republic already has the flag they need!

This is not an "option," and the last time it was floated with any apparent seriousness it was a clumsy Russian op.

California is (last I checked) the largest state economy (and almost certainly if you exclude Wall Street from NY) has much of the USA's deep water port capacity, important naval and air bases, nuclear weapons labs and a sizable portion of the nuclear arsenal at Seal Beach. Similar things are true of WA, if not so much OR. These states are not going to just waltz out of the Union.

The only way I can imagine the US breaking up without a war that's difficult to even envision, would be a failed constitutional convention.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:09 AM on January 6, 2022 [10 favorites]


I'll be curious which Hamilton song Pelosi introduced as part of the remembrance. There's so many options, which one would be the most fitting to commemorate the occasion?

(I'm not sure how best to introduce/mention this, it seems like such a strange thing to add to the mix, but clearly it's significant to the people running the event)
posted by CrystalDave at 11:11 AM on January 6, 2022


There aren't blue states and red states. There are states with large enough or sufficiently numerous blue cities to outweigh the red countryside and there are states without (yet).

Are all those blue cities going to be isolated little West Berlins dotting the continent subject to siege and invasion from the red countryside one at a time until they're gone?
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 11:12 AM on January 6, 2022 [28 favorites]


hoping that I can make it to California when the shit hits the fan

...or as Todd Rundgren sang,
But when the shit hits the fan,
I think I'll have to make my way
Back to Sunset Boulevard
Sunset Boulevard
posted by Rash at 11:13 AM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'll be curious which Hamilton song Pelosi introduced as part of the remembrance. There's so many options, which one would be the most fitting to commemorate the occasion?

It was Dear Theodosia.
posted by cooker girl at 11:14 AM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


Why waan't Trump charged with treason or at least sedition or incitement to riot?

You kinda have to have irrefutable evidence that he did any of that. Telling people to march over to the Capitol and let your voices be heard isn't incitement. Now, thanks to the J6 committee, we're beginning to see inside the Trump White House and what was going on. But, As much as I want to see the fucker behind bars forever, there just isn't hard evidence that Trump himself committed treason/sedition/incitement. And, arresting him only to have the case evaporate due to lack of hard evidence would only make him stronger.
posted by Thorzdad at 11:20 AM on January 6, 2022 [17 favorites]


I'm not underestimating the dire state we are in but one of the tactics the right uses incredibly effectively is the strategic deployment of despair. Giving up the fight because we've been told there is no way to win or that we don't have enough information to fight effectively is just handing over the country to the right.

The truth is that any efforts we make will be imperfect and it's unlikely there will be a moment where we get to think "Hey! I did it! I can see where my individual efforts made the difference!"

But spending my time working with others to make my country and world a better place for all of us using the tools and information I have now is the only viable option I see. If you would like help getting started, please DM me. I would be happy to help you find some groups you could connect with in your area.
posted by mcduff at 11:20 AM on January 6, 2022 [36 favorites]


We need to talk about the lie about the lie.

"53% of Republicans believe the election was stolen from Trump".

I believe this is a complete lie.

I believe a large number of these Republicans know full well that Biden won the elction. They just do not accept the democractic process. They want their candidate to win no matter what. Which means they basically believe in a dictatorship rather than a democracy.

(This basically means they are anti-American and traitors to their country. Much of the Declaration of Independence talks about the rejection of dictators and kings--it is what our country stands for).

If you understand that they know full well that 'the election was stolen' is a lie, then you have a better understanding of what their next steps are--to completely subvert the democratic process so that their candidate wins no matter what happens at the polls.
posted by eye of newt at 11:24 AM on January 6, 2022 [65 favorites]


There are states with large enough or sufficiently numerous blue cities to outweigh the red countryside and there are states without (yet).

This is very true. I live in western Washington state, in a rural part of it, and once you are outside of a large city over here in the bluest part of this blue state, it is deeply, deeply red.
posted by maxwelton at 11:24 AM on January 6, 2022 [10 favorites]


What if anything is the Democratic Party doing to get a POTUS candidate who’d have a legitimate chance to win in 24? Biden *might* win again if the economy grows significantly and does so for people besides just the absurdly rich, but his health may not allow it. I’d love love love to see Harris in the chair but I’m afraid that’ll only happen if she’s seen carrying an American flag while walking with first responders atop a heap of slag from some building that was just knocked down by a few gents from some country that doesn’t get called Terrorist Petri Dish just because we buy a lot of oil from them. I digress. I hate it but I’m afraid that not enough people are going to vote for Harris just because she’s a woman and one of color. She would need to have been have very visibly been seen doing some national-grade executive powering. At the moment the tale — right or wrong — would be told by the competition that she can’t competently preside over her own staff. They will do said telling with high competence using Rupert’s Free Big Megaphone.

I’m burying my own damn lede. SO. Who might actually have a chance to win over some of those above mentioned middle class folks who thus far are way more likely to vote for Trump?
posted by armoir from antproof case at 11:25 AM on January 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


Neither the Biden Administration nor Congress can meet the moment.
posted by ob1quixote at 11:28 AM on January 6, 2022 [15 favorites]


Neither the Biden Administration nor Congress can meet the moment.

...as feeble now as the Weimar Republic was then.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:32 AM on January 6, 2022 [11 favorites]


Voting is good and more people should do it, but it can't overcome the systemic problems that are leading us into a white supremacist theocracy. The right is winning elections because of voter suppression, gerrymandering, and propaganda.

Also, it's worth noting, by the system itself, thanks to the way the Senate and the Electoral College are set up. By 2040, about 70% of Americans are expected to live in the 15 largest states. They will have only 30 senators representing them, while the remaining 30% of Americans will have 70 senators representing them. [WaPo]

Trump and GWB both lost the popular vote. The House is better, but not a lot, since it's capped at 435 members, it's doesn't reflect population growth properly.

Voting IN the system isn't enough. We need to vote to change the system.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:34 AM on January 6, 2022 [26 favorites]


deadaluspark: "It will continue to exist, it will be just completely "mask off" at that point."

That's not what the essay is saying. It's not long, you can read it yourself. His point is that there will be civil war and ethnic cleansing, and the more or less cohesive political entity we call the USA, consisting of fifty states, will no longer exist.
posted by adamrice at 11:37 AM on January 6, 2022


I remember thinking when last January 6th went down that this -- like November 22nd, 1963 -- is a day I will remember forever. On that day in 1963 I ate Campbell's chicken noodle for lunch. On last January 6th I did not eat until nightfall.
posted by y2karl at 11:47 AM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


His point is that there will be civil war and ethnic cleansing, and the more or less cohesive political entity we call the USA, consisting of fifty states, will no longer exist

There will not only be extensive migration within the territory of the US as things shake out, but also emigration - The wealthiest of them will flee to wherever in the world they will be most welcome, and the rest will attempt to go to wherever is easiest to get to - think Canada or Mexico.

It would be wise for these governments to be planning for this.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:52 AM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


Stanford's Hakeem Jefferson laments that "White Backlash Is A Type Of Racial Reckoning, Too."
posted by PhineasGage at 11:55 AM on January 6, 2022 [1 favorite]


It would be wise for these governments to be planning for this

Opinion piece:
The American polity is cracked and might collapse. Canada must prepare
posted by yyz at 12:08 PM on January 6, 2022 [25 favorites]


"But what did we not see?"

I hear what you did there, Joe, and I approve.
posted by chavenet at 12:14 PM on January 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


Could a mod add a "USpolitics" or "potus45" tag to this so it gets caught by the "hide US politics" filter?

Could they not please? This is one where the whole world is watching, after all, and for oh so good reason.

*adds NotLost to today's bar raising list*
posted by y2karl at 12:20 PM on January 6, 2022


It was Dear Theodosia.

So of all the songs in that show, they went with the one written to humanize the character who in real life went on to launch his own failed seditionist plot?
posted by Strange Interlude at 12:21 PM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


Could they not please? This is one where the whole world is watching, after all, and for oh so good reason.

As important as you might think this is, people have legitimate reasons for wanting a break from US politics.

It's become increasingly hard to relax and unwind these days. Political messages and "important reminders" fill every crevice, so unless one unplugs entirely, one's bound to see this sort of stuff.

Don't bypass someone's filters because you think it's important that they see your message.
posted by explosion at 12:38 PM on January 6, 2022 [45 favorites]


There are states with large enough or sufficiently numerous blue cities to outweigh the red countryside and there are states without (yet).

This seems broadly true, but maybe a tiny bit overstated.

There are states like Massachusetts (Biden won every county) and Hawaii (ditto) that basically don't have any countryside. There are rural counties--up north where a lot of white people live, in the south where a lot of Black people live, in western places where a lot of Native people live, and southwestern places where a lot of Hispanic people live--that went for Biden.

This extremely detailed map may be informative.
posted by box at 12:39 PM on January 6, 2022 [12 favorites]


Some of the excessive rhetoric above echoes some I hear about climate change. Climate change is not an existential threat. The survival of humanity is not at risk. Personally, as a rich person living in an area with a moderate climate, it will be an annoyance, not a danger. But for millions, or billions, of others, it is life-threatening. Similarly, I don't fear a physical military coup; and as a rich person in a blue region, my life would not change too much even if Trumpists took over illegitimately.

The above is not to downplay the risks of either. In fact, it's exactly why the risks are so high and the possible outcomes so terrifying.

First, it's a gradual process, with no one specific incident causing a collapse. Mitch McConnell and his ilk won't stand for an explicit overthrow of the government. But if enough corrupt state election officials can be installed, the overthrow will not be explicit, but it will be real.

Second, the burden of a corrupt government will not fall on the elite, or even the upper-middle class. (Wealthy people will not flee the U.S. They might flee to the Hamptons.) Those of us who have social and economic resources will, in all likelihood, be protected from the worst outcomes. It's those don't who will pay the price, as they did during the previous administration. And if the elite are protected, they might allow it to happen.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:42 PM on January 6, 2022 [6 favorites]



It would be wise for these governments to be planning for this.


Canada always feels like something of a Sudetenland. Ever more so.
posted by klanawa at 12:44 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I know I overstated my case about the urban/rural split, but I talk about this stuff on other forums where people seem to just be resigned to civil war and partition and don't even think about what it means to just hand over Atlanta and Austin and Charlotte etc. to Trumplandia.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 12:45 PM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


There are states like Massachusetts (Biden won every county) and Hawaii (ditto) that basically don't have any countryside.

Massachusetts may be relatively homogenously blue-ish, but a reliable 60-40 split of Democrat/Republican voters still means that 40% of our population is voting conservatively.

We have people like Bristol County Sheriff Thomas Hodgson, who offered Trump prison labor to build the border wall, and has been in office for 24 years. Bristol County is not rural; it's suburban and nestled right between Boston and Providence, RI.

It's not blue state versus red state, or even urban versus rural. The rot is throughout our entire nation.
posted by explosion at 12:55 PM on January 6, 2022 [12 favorites]


The American polity is cracked and might collapse. Canada must prepare.

Well that was deeply chilling - thanks.

It does seem increasingly impossible to see any good short-term outcomes for the US.
posted by ryanshepard at 12:55 PM on January 6, 2022


Western Massachusetts is not so urban, in Old England a lot of that looks like countryside to me, maybe not by New England standards?

Also, people who are actively hoping for secession honestly do not know what they are asking for. American peace and prosperity is based on basically dominating the continent and having nice big oceans on either side. The minute you break that up you are creating a geopolitically unstable situation which will eventually lead to conflict. Why do you we think we created the EU? We were tired of centuries of blood.
posted by atrazine at 1:03 PM on January 6, 2022 [31 favorites]


There's just no chance the people who vote Republican and support a coup are ready for the reality of a post-coup America. Sure, the idea is romantic (for them). But it'll instantly fuck the global supply chain, the healthcare system, professional sports, etc. Sadly for them, the exact societal infrastructure that they rail against and despise is the very same infrastructure that allows them ALL their daily pleasures. Every single perk of modern life is the result of the globally interconnected stable civic environment that lets people trust each other so they can get on with all the invisible but essential tasks that keep the grocery store shelves full and those fancy flat screen TVs both powered up and delivering content. That stuff cannot be replicated at the local level.

We think of ourselves as mavericks, independent and self-sufficient. We aren't. Not even a little bit. Every display of radical independence in America today is just an exercise in fatuous ignorance of how modern society makes "independence" possible. Sure, you live off the grid and grow your own food. Then you get appendicitis and hotfoot it to the big city to get surgery and antibiotics. Real independent! I think of all the American tourists I saw in various foreign countries who lost their shit when the hot water at the hotel went off, or a menu item wasn't available at the beachside restaurant. Trumpers are not ready for the reality of living in a failed state. Sure, the ultra-rich will continue life as normal. That is not the vast majority of Americans. They are going to suffer and they are going to be mad at the people who fucked it up for everyone... and there won't be any hapless Democratic politicians to kick around once the government is a right-wing dictatorship.
posted by lefty lucky cat at 1:09 PM on January 6, 2022 [65 favorites]


At least Hitler hired a guy with style to design the uniforms.

Arf! Arf! Arf! Would Godwin again!

Also, Cascadia's flag could have its colors tweaked so as to make it more visible and recognizable at a distance.
posted by y2karl at 1:23 PM on January 6, 2022


But it'll instantly fuck ... professional sports

Now there's a negative outcome which might get some wait-a-minute reactions from the conservative secessionists, and desire for unity from the sports community.
posted by Rash at 1:26 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


Also, people who are actively hoping for secession honestly do not know what they are asking for

And both they and people who treat discussions of it as some sort of clinical or scholarly speculation should also consider that Civil War 2 will bring about the return of outright chattel slavery.

Agricultural centers in The Fractured States of America would still need their farms tended and crops picked, and without a steady flow of exploitable labor from South and Central America, they would turn to prisoners. As we know, there are in fact places where this already happens.

But the Fractured States would need a whole lot of prisoners to fill the vacuum left by immigrant workers who would either be avoiding the FS altogether or facing an even more cruel and hostile border-crossing.

Guess who the powers that be in the various former US states would start rounding up since we already make up a disproportionate amount of the prison population?

So, yeah, if this fracture happens in my lifetime and I somehow survive the initial outbreak of violence, I fully expect to be on the chain gang at some point, and not for my progressive views, though I imagine some non-black folks will be joining me in the fields for having the "wrong" politics.
posted by lord_wolf at 1:30 PM on January 6, 2022 [34 favorites]


prison labour vs remote regions of China camp labour is a very thinly sliced nuanced difference
posted by infini at 1:42 PM on January 6, 2022 [6 favorites]


Climate change is not an existential threat. The survival of humanity is not at risk.

Note to self: Remember to buy personal space station and attached sky ladder after buying next 1/2 billion dollar Megamillions winning ticket.
posted by y2karl at 1:42 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


No one who really needs to see this, will see this. They want to believe that Biden is feeble and controlled by some shady communist cabal. The civil war is on, and the same old power players still pull the strings with unfettered misinformation, tactically applied, micromanaged, with ruthless cunning. The lie mongers are openly contmptuous of their marks, using the divisions created by outrageous conspiracy scams, as reasons to mock them. Yet these marks will take up guns for the powerful players even while they laugh at them.
posted by Oyéah at 1:47 PM on January 6, 2022 [3 favorites]


I feel helpless seeing what is happening. The downplaying of the Jan 6 insurrection by the GOP politicians; especially those running in the primaries hoping for Trump's endorsement; is frightening to me as a Brown man.

I have a feeling this is what Jews felt like in Germany during the last days of Weimar and looking at the rise of the Nazi Party.

My disgust is not so much with the Qanon cultists. I always knew that about 20-25 percent of the Republican base is proto-fascist loons. I am more disgusted with the other 75% that are okay with this as long as they get to be the ones in power; and more importantly are unwilling to confront this cancer in the party. Are they so beholden to Trump at this point that they are willing to risk real catastrophe to save their political hides in the short term?
posted by indianbadger1 at 1:49 PM on January 6, 2022 [35 favorites]


...and there won't be any hapless Democratic politicians to kick around once the government is a right-wing dictatorship.

Perhaps, but there will still be an inexhaustable supply of "those people" to scapegoat.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 1:59 PM on January 6, 2022 [17 favorites]


Exactly. They made up the idea that it was the hapless Democrats that caused the problems pre-schism; they’ll make some shit up again post-schism. Unfortunately the new targets will be less protected than the previous, because Rule of Law will have been replaced by Rule of Prepper Dude Supposed Patriot.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 2:12 PM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


A picture is worth 300 million words.

At the very very least.
posted by y2karl at 2:15 PM on January 6, 2022 [15 favorites]


No one starts a war that they think they'll lose. But I would like not for the losers to experience this firsthand, since even the winners are also going to suffer a dramatic price for being "right".
posted by meowzilla at 2:19 PM on January 6, 2022


y2karl: "A picture is worth 300 million words.

At the very very least.
"

No fan of Dick Cheney, but even still: respect.
posted by chavenet at 2:20 PM on January 6, 2022 [13 favorites]


Mitch McConnell and his ilk won't stand for an explicit overthrow of the government.

I don't think they are in control anymore or at least won't be able to direct things in a violent overthrow situation. The way they shit themselves on January 6th (and then immediately started back tracking) means they think they can but these things get out of control pretty fast.

So does Cascadia!

Yaaaa, BC will not be splitting from Canada to join an American experimental shit show during the third American civil war.
posted by Mitheral at 2:21 PM on January 6, 2022 [11 favorites]


A picture is worth 300 million words.

Holy crap. People should make that into a sticker and slap it onto every Blue Lives Matter flag you see.
posted by Mchelly at 2:22 PM on January 6, 2022 [15 favorites]


Yaaaa, BC will not be splitting from Canada to join an American experimental shit show during the third American civil war.

Yah, but! but! but! ...our shit does not stink!
posted by y2karl at 2:26 PM on January 6, 2022




“Insurrection, One Year On,” Jim Wright, Stonekettle Station, 06 January 2022
posted by ob1quixote at 2:37 PM on January 6, 2022 [12 favorites]


From above
For evil to flourish, good men forget who they are. They forget the ideals they once swore to give their very lives for. They come to believe that they are aggrieved, that justice, liberty, and democracy are zero sums and that they have been diminished by the rising freedom of others. They come to see education and intellect as "elitism" and they begin to regard duty and the obligations of civilization itself as oppression. They raise up ignorance, hate, and especially violent rage as strengths and sneer in contempt at compassion, charity, and selflessness.

And the saddest part of this decline is that they cannot see that those who would lead them to their own destruction, do so not for ideology or belief or even from some supposed moral high ground, but for profit.

And if you're to keep the money rolling in, then you have to keep going further and further.

And hate always has consequences.

Always.

When your entire ideology is based on outrage, then the only way to maintain power is to stoke the fires of hate into an inferno of bitter white hot rage.

When rage becomes the only emotion you can feel, well, that only ends one way, in violence and blood.

And if you doubt this, you have only to look at the reaction among Republicans to President Biden's speech today on this anniversary of the insurrection.
Word, Word, WordfuckingWord...
posted by y2karl at 2:53 PM on January 6, 2022 [18 favorites]


In the past weeks, these two moments gave me pause:
- coverage of the coastal flooding (west, then over to the east) and a young Newfie fellow is describing a washed out section of road and he says (paraphrasing) "I mean I seen a lot of rain but I ain't seen nothin like it" and I thought.. Canadians just heard a Newfie exclaim about rain.
- articles like the one linked by yyz, upthread.. when us "nice" simple Canadians start pondering out loud how we should plan for a future with a collapsed US, I don't know man..

Whether something is an existential threat to someone seems to be in the eye of the beholder. These times seem awfully fraught to me.
posted by elkevelvet at 2:56 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]



I would like to ask, also, that those reading this spare a moment to think about DC and the people who live and work in and near it; this was a national event but it was also a local event and it came on the heels of a number of frankly terrifying right-wing actions in DC in the preceding months, including a night on which the Proud Boys stabbed someone. Last January 6th was a scary time to live here and to know these people were in our city, not just at the Capitol, and that we were and are extremely vulnerable.



Thank you. I live on the Hill, two blocks from the Capitol and one block from the RNC, and it was horrifying to be near them walking around the neighborhood, some making bullying remarks, others dominating sidewalks with their flagpoles and nasty looks. Videos indicate the pipe bomber walked by my building.
posted by jgirl at 2:59 PM on January 6, 2022 [11 favorites]


Canada always feels like something of a Sudetenland

Relatively clean, freshwater supplies neighboring a country in drought conditions and on fire. Wheat fields. Natural resources out the wazoo.

The way things are going south of the border, I hope Canada is getting its national defense affairs in order (even if no amount of preparation would likely ever be enough).
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:01 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


“Joe Biden’s ‘Unbound’ January 6 Speech Won’t Be Enough to Save Us,” Jeff Sharlet, Vanity Fair, 06 January 2022
posted by ob1quixote at 3:07 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


If you haven't read the link ob1quixote posted, do so. Thanks very much for posting.
posted by wittgenstein at 3:08 PM on January 6, 2022 [1 favorite]


Sharlette is full of shit in that Vanity Fair kvetch column. Any of us might have written that speech differently, but Biden said the right things in the right tone. That's the best we could hope for from a particular speech. Now so much else has to be addressed in Congress, the courts, and in our political efforts in every race leading up to November's elections. (No criticism of posting the link intended.)
posted by PhineasGage at 3:27 PM on January 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


>prison labour vs remote regions of China camp labour is a very thinly sliced nuanced difference
I'm only a recent student of the 13th Amendment to the USA Constitution -- so I do want to know why the USA Prison-Industrial complex can't make iPhones. Is it because the people running the works lack ambition or because they're too greedy?
posted by k3ninho at 3:34 PM on January 6, 2022


so I do want to know why the USA Prison-Industrial complex can't make iPhones. Is it because the people running the works lack ambition or because they're too greedy?

It's because the supply chains all feed into each other. For Apple to make an iPhone in the US isn't just about assembling all the parts, it's getting those parts there and next to none of them are made in the US anymore. Even if they are made in the US they probably can't be made at the scales Apple needs them at.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:36 PM on January 6, 2022


In the long-term, the only way out of this for the US is going to be imprisonment or more severe punishment for the ringleader of the insurrection and his co-conspirators. As the writer of ob1quixote's link notes, this was an act of violent sedition by white supremacists, and it was an act lead by the former president and his people.

Until the government sees this group of criminals as a serious existential threat, and until we have a national conversation about the consequences of leaving these criminals' actions unpunished, whatever is the best we could hope for will not save what's left of the democracy.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:36 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]


In the long-term, the only way out of this for the US is going to be imprisonment or more severe punishment for the ringleader of the insurrection and his co-conspirators.

Now there's an argument for prison labor. Put them in some walrus size hamster wheels and apply cattle prods. Green energy at its best!
posted by y2karl at 3:45 PM on January 6, 2022


Arf! Arf! Arf! Would Godwin again!

The Godwin rule, at it's core, is a thought-terminating cliche, and something self-identified moderates frequently use to ridicule the hyper-vigilant worriers of the left. In normal times -- whatever that is -- it might be useful to right a listing discourse, but I think it's time to put it away for a while. If the ship really is sinking, nobody benefits by pretending it isn't. True, it's different this time around, but it's similar enough and near enough that vigilence is no longer the province of worriers. It's a duty.
posted by klanawa at 3:45 PM on January 6, 2022 [22 favorites]


Are they so beholden to Trump at this point that they are willing to risk real catastrophe to save their political hides in the short term?

every Republican politician (not in a 'jungle primary' state) has to face a primary election where only those loons you refer to bother themselves to vote.

our current electoral system has uh, fatal . . . flaws here and there . . .
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:00 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


Not that I expect deep thoughts from the rightwing, but what do they think is going to happen to the economy if Drumpf gets installed in 2024? They'll start defaulting on US Gov't debt, stop paying interest on bonds to foreign holders who aren't their buddies, and will rev up the printing presses like there's no tomorrow. Dollar collapses and then, what? I guess if you don't have anything this won't matter, but those upper-middle class rioters are going to lose everything if we go down this road. Of course so will I and everyone else, and I guess there's that sentiment among that group, but I don't get it.

My pet theory is that if they get into office, they'll all short bitcoin and every other crypto currency in private while publicly telling everyone to get into it. Then they'll simply make crypto illegal and cash in. If you don't lose everything in Round 1, you will in Round 2.
posted by Farce_First at 4:18 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


every Republican politician (not in a 'jungle primary' state) has to face a primary election

What would happen if we eliminated primaries and made the general elections ranked choice? It seems like primaries generate the most radical candidates.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 4:22 PM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


My pet theory is that if they get into office, they'll all short bitcoin and every other crypto currency in private while publicly telling everyone to get into it. Then they'll simply make crypto illegal and cash in. If you don't lose everything in Round 1, you will in Round 2.

Speaking as somebody working in finance, it's pretty much impossible to really short bitcoin or other crypto. There are some things which kinda-sorta act like it (bitcoin futures), but in practice they don't really work it.

Now just to be clear where I stand on the topic- it is my personal belief (having professionally worked in both cryptography AND currency trading) that all cryptocurrencies need to die in a fire. So my opinions should be viewed through that lens. It would make me extremely happy if crypto was declared illegal tomorrow. Not happy enough to be happy about it if TFG was the one who did it, because as craptacular as cryptocurrencies are, it's not worth letting that shit happen again.

Also I suspect there are far more lucrative looting targets than crypto, they wouldn't waste their time. But I'll bow out from this tangent here, I don't want the thread derailed to cryptocurrency stuff.
posted by notoriety public at 4:27 PM on January 6, 2022 [13 favorites]


Is the American business sector just standing by and hoping things work out? It never seems to be mentioned, collectively, as a player along with party politicians. I really want to think that top CEOs are quietly getting their ducks in a row to avoid collapse. Yes, many are multinationals, but still.
posted by mmiddle at 4:29 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


The American business sector knows where the influence is on sale.
posted by abulafa at 4:31 PM on January 6, 2022


I think THIS is the article abulafa wanted to link.
posted by kittensofthenight at 4:46 PM on January 6, 2022


Don't bypass someone's filters because you think it's important that they see your message.

What I thought I was saying was that it was important to remember that the rest of the world exists, its mileage varys at an order of some quanta on the topic and that it may not be entirely sympathetic about how reaĺly hard to relax and unwind these days it is for us. But point taken, all the same. I will add no more.

My problem is I can't forget any of this.
posted by y2karl at 4:50 PM on January 6, 2022


I know it's the west coast fantasy to finally kick off from us toothless hicks in flyover country but most of the "blue states" are a handful of blue cities and some very red countryside. It was Olympia, Washington where protestors tried to storm the Governor's mansion. It was Forks, Washington where a lynch mob terrified a mixed-race family because of "antifa." No state had more Trump rallies than California. The Bundy standoff was in Oregon.

Y'all are going to be surprised when, for the 800th time, it's a rich white guy in a jacked-up truck from Orange County or Bonney Lake or Prineville and not a toothless hick from Alabama gunning people down because the only racists and Nazis are here in the south.

The contempt you hold us in never seems to come up during the "gosh why don't those idiot yokels in states I'm afraid to go in vote for people I like?" hand-wringing. To say nothing of the millions of Black, people of color, LGBTQIA, etc. people you *desperately* want to say you represent while *desperately* trying to ignore they don't live in one of the 15 Acceptable Cities To Live In.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 5:07 PM on January 6, 2022 [60 favorites]


Neither the Biden Administration nor Congress can meet the moment.

The answer is massive solidarity in organizing, dual power and local politics

The answer is not blue state "secession"
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:10 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]


I know it's the west coast fantasy to finally kick off from us toothless hicks in flyover country [etc.]

I mean, no state has more of anything than California. There are 40 million people there.

Nobody here is under any illusions anymore about the demographic make-up of the Capitol rioters or Trump's base in general. We know they're suburban upper-class white people.

Your whole comment is an interesting window on what the "yokels" might be feeling, but not what they're thinking. Is there something motivating them other than their rage at being overlooked or dismissed by us city-people*. Like, is there some substance to this, some kind of articulable policy orientation? Something you know about our material conditions? Is there some reason you think Mitch McConnel will elevate the poor white working working man, or is it just anger to the core? Is it projection? Is it really just to own us "libs?" Bring something to the table, at least.

* a fair number of us "city people" come from "hick towns" so the suggestion that we don't understand the culture there is a bit nonsense, seriously.
posted by klanawa at 5:46 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]


* a fair number of us "city people" come from "hick towns" so the suggestion that we don't understand the culture there is a bit nonsense, seriously.

Yes, thank you. I'm not even from a town; it's a hamlet.
posted by jgirl at 5:56 PM on January 6, 2022 [5 favorites]


IMO the only thing that might work when the orange piece of shit and his acolytes seize power (and the Tim Snyder essay is as good as any on the process) is a gigantic mass strike/shutdown of everything that possibly can be shut down. When cheetolini seizes power after losing by 10 million votes - and holy crap are they gonna try - the reaction on our side is going to be staggeringly powerful.

They’re 30%. Were 70% and our part of the economy culture and society is many times greater than the people zuckerberg (an amoral criminal) would have folks believe. As a dyed in the wool leftist I am including the conservative people who actually have ethics in that 70%. There are a lot of those folks and it’s imperative to support them. There will always be conservative people. The ones who are ‘good’ need our help and support. For what it’s worth I see it as a choice between Kitzenger (sp?) and MT Greene - I know who I’d rather see on that side

FYI. + 20 year lurker who LOVES this site so very much. I learn wonderful things everyday from y’all. I was going to call out some of the people who’s posts and comments are just so enlightening. But the list would run on and on and on. So I’ll just say thank you so deeply all.
posted by WatTylerJr at 6:13 PM on January 6, 2022 [42 favorites]


What would happen if we eliminated primaries and made the general elections ranked choice? It seems like primaries generate the most radical candidates.

See, the problem is that the States run elections. There is no federal election system. So you have to get all 50 states to change.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 6:38 PM on January 6, 2022


It's not flyover country anymore when there's been a lot of blue staters moving to Idaho, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida etc. The states with the greatest amount of net outflow are California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey!

The true battleground is not between states but between cities and suburbs and rural areas. It's a lot messier than plain borders on a map.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:03 PM on January 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


A picture is worth 300 million words.

I can't see the picture, apparently because I'm not on Facebook.
posted by NotLost at 7:16 PM on January 6, 2022 [9 favorites]


Try this photo link.
posted by cenoxo at 7:45 PM on January 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


I kinda want people calling that odious Congresswoman a traitor for wanting secession/civil war to cool their jets, because secession of the West Coast might be the best option going forward . . . The California Republic already has the flag they need!


Secession is lunacy. Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene call it a "national divorce" like it will be a repeat of the Velvet Divorce that peacefully partitioned Czechoslovakia.

In reality, blue and red states are not homogenous monoliths of separate ethnicities that can cleanly divide themselves. Every state is an archipelago of blue cities and mixed suburbs surrounded by red, rural turf (with some notable exception, such as the southern Black Belt.)

It would make the first Civil War look like child's play, when states were more homogenous in their opinion as to slavery and secession.

An urban-rural civil war and partition of the United States would be one of the most horrific disasters in modern history, leading to millions of deaths and tens of millions displaced. Decades of internecine guerrilla warfare would result as an alternative to an outright nuclear winter.

Blue cities would fall into starvation and anarchy as they are cut off from food supplies. In the suburbs, neighbor will turn on neighbor as some families flee to reunite, and others are torn asunder for generations to come. The economic collapse would hit rural areas that benefit from urban subsidies the hardest as state governments dissolve into chaos. A nation armed to the teeth, drowning in assault rifles and ammunition, would find every family fending for their own survival, either by bribery or bullet.

Vietnam, Korea, India. These are the bloody partitions that are the precedent. I live in a blue state -- if it seceded, I'd fucking flee. No way in hell.
posted by Hollywood Upstairs Medical College at 8:49 PM on January 6, 2022 [18 favorites]


I mean, honestly, all things considered, fleeing might be the best option, period.

I say that as someone who strongly thinks those who flee are leaving their brethren who can't find ways to flee to suffer greater evils.

We're at a point where I'm not sure that it even matters. It really might be just best to flee, and hopefully you can "underground railroad" your way into saving your friends you left behind somehow.
posted by deadaluspark at 8:54 PM on January 6, 2022 [1 favorite]


President Biden and Vice President Harris Speak on January 6 Anniversary, C-SPAN, January 6, 2022 – President Biden and Vice President Harris spoke from Statuary Hall on the one year anniversary of the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Vice President Harris spoke of the “fragility” and strength of democracy. President Biden said former President Donald Trump “has created and spread a web of lies about the 2020 election” and that his predecessor “can’t accept he lost.” [~34 min., with unedited text transcript]
posted by cenoxo at 9:09 PM on January 6, 2022


[Displaying their appropriate level of respect for the anniversary,] Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) discuss the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Both lawmakers accused the federal government [and FBI] of playing a role in inciting former President Trump’s supporters to storm the Capitol., C-SPAN, January 6, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 9:35 PM on January 6, 2022


I know it's the west coast fantasy to finally kick off from us toothless hicks in flyover country.
For a moment I thought Warnes Starrcoat was using a flying potion over the Village of Hommlet.

"Jimmy Carter: U.S. Is at “Genuine Risk of Civil Conflict and Losing Our Precious Democracy
posted by clavdivs at 9:35 PM on January 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


I would like to ask, also, that those reading this spare a moment to think about DC and the people who live and work in and near it

I know it sounds weird, but I think a lot of people are like I was a few years ago, and the fact that there are people actually living in the District of Columbia and not just going to work there from commuter communities - it never even crossed my mind until my organization hosted a conference that was attended by a lot of teachers from the DC public schools. It was a real eye-opener getting to know them, and I have a lot of respect for what they’re able to accomplish under frequently undesirable conditions.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 12:10 AM on January 7, 2022 [4 favorites]


Voting IN the system isn't enough. We need to vote to change the system.

Any ideas on how to get that on the referendum?

But to echo others, yes, getting as involved as you can at the local/county/state level is essential in addition to voting. Even if all you’re able to do is contact your representatives on the issues at hand or put a campaign sign up in your yard. There are plenty of good reasons, but one of the biggest is that today’s city councilor may become tomorrow’s Mayor, the next day’s state Senator, the next day’s state Governor, and so on.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 12:18 AM on January 7, 2022 [1 favorite]


I've been reading and watching WaPo's fantastic investigative reporting of this since day 1 but today's NYT video has been the best & most-informative I've seen.
posted by bendy at 2:35 AM on January 7, 2022 [4 favorites]


If you have problems loading the NYT’s Day of Rage video directly, it’s also on YouTube.
posted by cenoxo at 3:25 AM on January 7, 2022 [3 favorites]


Blue cities would fall into starvation and anarchy as they are cut off from food supplies

that's the common red state belief that they have all the food and can starve the blue cities - and some of the more isolated ones could be in dire trouble

but for the most part the blue cities are also the port cities - and the refinery cities - 80% of the american people live within 100 miles of a coast or international border

most of the red state food growing land is growing feed corn or soybeans that have to be processed or fed to animals - more importantly, they're owned or have to sell to major corporations, who aren't in business to refuse to make food for people

the red state areas will quickly find out that you can't block international shipping with pickup trucks, that those who own the land and buy what it produces will be willing to use force to keep that going, that modern civ relies on a bunch of stuff that's imported overseas and has to go through blue territory first, and they are in economic and logistic 2nd place

they will be able to keep a civil insurrection going for a long time - but a civil war would not get off the ground for long - we have effective control of the shores, the mississippi river and the great lakes and they don't
posted by pyramid termite at 3:34 AM on January 7, 2022 [31 favorites]


Barbara Walter's new book is getting a lot of ink, but The Economist thinks she's exaggerating the danger: An expert on civil war issues a warning about America
posted by chavenet at 4:23 AM on January 7, 2022 [1 favorite]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election because of the election and everything that's followed on from it? Not talking COVID here, but purely the "it's the end of America!" reactions. I can think of 100+ friends or colleagues who have at least casually talked about it, but not one person who's done it.

My half-dozen friends who have left the U.S. permanently have universally been tech workers, broadly defined. All have found overall U.S. culture and politics unacceptable, not necessarily spurred by any event.
posted by cupcakeninja at 4:47 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


Harris was inside DNC on Jan. 6 when pipe bomb was discovered outside – The then-vice president-elect’s presence inside the building while a bomb was right outside raises sobering questions about her security that day., POLITICO, Betsy Woodruff Swan/Christopher Cadelago/Kyle Cheney, 01/06/2022:
Then-Vice President-elect Kamala Harris was inside Democratic National Committee headquarters on Jan. 6, 2021, when a pipe bomb was discovered outside the building, according to four people familiar with her movements that day.

Capitol Police began investigating the pipe bomb at 1:07 p.m., according to an official Capitol Police timeline of events obtained by POLITICO. The timeline says that Capitol Police and the Secret Service evacuated an unnamed “protectee” at approximately 1:14 p.m, seven minutes later. The four people, among them a White House official and a former law enforcement official, confirmed that Harris was the Secret Service protectee identified in the timeline, which has circulated on Capitol Hill.

Harris’ presence inside the building while a bomb was right outside raises sobering questions about her security that day. It also raises the chilling prospect that the riots could have been far more destructive than they already were, with the incoming vice president's life directly endangered. Federal law enforcement officials have faced harsh criticism for failing to anticipate the chaotic scene around the Electoral College certification one year ago, despite receiving a host of warnings [*] about possible chaos….
*‘The intelligence was there’: Law enforcement warnings abounded in the runup to Jan. 6 – Newly available documents mirror a flood of public red flags about the gathering danger posed by the fringes of the Trump movement., POLITICO, Betsy Woodruff Swan, 01/07/2020.
posted by cenoxo at 4:51 AM on January 7, 2022 [1 favorite]


But, As much as I want to see the fucker behind bars forever, there just isn't hard evidence that Trump himself committed treason/sedition/incitement. And, arresting him only to have the case evaporate due to lack of hard evidence would only make him stronger.

Is this really what it comes down to?

Are we really at the point where a group of people can engineer a plot to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power and come within moments of bringing down our entire government and get away with it because there isn't hard enough evidence to overcome the political fallout of prosecution? Is Trump really that untouchable? Could he really shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, in broad daylight, and get away with it?

This is what bothers me about appeals to vote as a way of getting out of this mess. I don't want every election to be a referendum on burning the house down because that's unsustainable. We have laws. We have a Constitution. We live in a system defined by collective principals which define us as much as we define them. Voting is important and powerful and certainly more participation is necessary, but it should not be the only bulwark against those who would tear down the entire system. And this is why the constant refrains to vote make me feel a little uncomfortable. Because if that's the only thing we have left to hold people accountable, then things are really, really, really, bad.

I want to believe that we're not there yet. I want to believe in the power of lasting institutions just as much as I want to believe in the power of elections. I want to believe that losing one election doesn't mean the loss of our nation. And this leads to an unfortunate problem because I can't reconcile those beliefs with the reality that we might really be one election away from losing everything. And the way I deal with the cognitive dissonance is to reaffirm my belief that something can be done by demanding (perhaps unrealistically) that something be done, which is to say LOCK HIM UP ALREADY, WHY HAVEN'T THEY LOCKED HIM UP, HOW COME HE ISN'T LOCKED UP?

Seriously. Just lock the fucker up already. What's taking so long?
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:29 AM on January 7, 2022 [16 favorites]


When cheetolini seizes power after losing by 10 million votes - and holy crap are they gonna try - the reaction on our side is going to be staggeringly powerful.

I sincerely believe the reaction on our side is going to be negligible.

He lost by 3 million votes in 2016 and the reaction on our side was negligible.

If a combination of alternate slates of electors sent by Republican governors, a bare majority of Republicans in the House, and a stacked SCOTUS installs him in January 2025 after he loses by 10 million in November 2024, the reaction will be more dramatic than 2016 but I don't see a general strike or sabotage or anything like that happening. There will be grumbles and Not My President t-shirts on a nationwide level and some protests that will be beaten down but overall my prediction is that Americans will on the whole just try to get by day after day.

Fast forward ten years and the America of that timeline won't look anything like the America of the timeline where it didn't happen, but after demoralizing midterms, further gridlock, and three more years of conservative media sowing doubt in the concept of elections in general, Americans will be primed to accept the installation of a president who mainstream media tell them didn't win the election.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 6:29 AM on January 7, 2022 [3 favorites]


Any ideas on how to get that on the referendum?

Sure, write to your state legislators. The states make the voting rules. A number of cities have implemented ranked choice for mayoral elections. It's a question of getting people used to the idea.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:34 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


My half-dozen friends who have left the U.S. permanently have universally been tech workers, broadly defined. All have found overall U.S. culture and politics unacceptable, not necessarily spurred by any event.

Yes. My defining moment came in the spring of 2007. After a decade, and right after qualifying for citizenship, the Patriot Act of the Bush era changed the way I thought about life as a foreign born resident of the United States. It was the small small things that were changing since ~2006 or so that led me to believe that it was becoming a frog in hot water situation. I might not feel it yet - beyond the nosy calls asking what I was going to do with my money (pay off a student loan, a gift from Dad) and the humiliation at the airport - but eventually I would. So I voted with my feet and left. I am not a tech worker.

An additional factor was climate change and the environment - it was more expensive to live a sustainable lifestyle in SF than to wastefully consume and dispose. As a WoC, I sometimes felt survivor guilt through the Trump years, but I will gladly live with much less money and high taxes in this Arctic darkness in return for a social safety net, a welfare state, free healthcare and education, and a system designed to respect and include me. Sure, there's the occasional racist experience on the street, but I do not walk in fear of a gunshot wound or limp with a twisted ankle because I can't afford healthcare (SF). Icing on the cake is a 35 year old mother of a toddler as head of government.
posted by infini at 6:43 AM on January 7, 2022 [20 favorites]


chavenet > Barbara Walter's new book is getting a lot of ink, but The Economist thinks she's exaggerating the danger: An expert on civil war issues a warning about America

Alternate Outline.com link.
posted by cenoxo at 6:54 AM on January 7, 2022 [1 favorite]


Winning in 2022, generally stopping gerrymandering and voting rights erosion, and reducing reactionary right/white movements are all going to be incremental slogs I fear. My next focus is on the 2022 NC Senate Race, where Cheri Beasley (D) is running against whatever (R) is going for Richard Burr's empty seat.

2020 voter turnout was pretty good, but still:

* 43% of eligible 18-34-year-olds didn't vote.
* 31% of eligible 35-64-year-olds didn't vote.
* 26% of eligible 65+ didn't vote.

Some of that could be the challenges of being young and having problems with lack of college voting sites, etc., but a lot of that has got to be apathy. The anti-VoterID arguments I've seen have been focused on "grandma is 99 and just has a Bible and doesn't know what year she was born", not on young people. What are some good sources about why young people don't vote? If the answer is "hey man both parties are the same, whatevs" then that's on them, but we can try to dissuade them of that notion.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:04 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


The NYT today has a commentary on the issue of civil war in America. Almost every scholar agrees it's possible, not all think it likely. The one quote that such out for me was this:
"Warning signs include the rise of intense political polarization based on identity rather than ideology, especially polarization between two factions of roughly equal size, each of which fears being crushed by the other. Instigators of civil violence, she writes, tend to be previously dominant groups who see their status slipping away."
That seems to describe the white Christian identity movement pretty well.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:16 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


What are some good sources about why young people don't vote?

There are a number of reasons why young people, and others, don't vote. Here are two pieces of good research:
* From 538 -- Why Many Americans Don't Vote: And why for some, this year (2020) could be different
* From the Knight Foundation -- The 100 Million Project: "The largest bloc of the electorate is a group of Americans that no politician has polled and who have seldom exercised their basic civic act – those who chronically do not vote. In an effort to better understand citizens who don’t vote and the challenges of political engagement, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation today released a landmark study that looks at the 100 million Americans who are eligible to vote but don’t. ... The study busts commonly held myths about non-voters. ..."
posted by NotLost at 7:17 AM on January 7, 2022 [5 favorites]


If the answer is "hey man both parties are the same, whatevs" then that's on them, but we can try to dissuade them of that notion.

Please don't do this right now. The reason people think this is because both parties feed at the same trough. You have Nancy fucking Pelosi defending insider trading for congresspeople as a function of "the free market."

It's emphatically not on them to look at two corporatist parties that both decided to throw them into the jaws of deadly disease for the sake of "The Economy" which is really just Wall Street and rich people, and go "Yeah, the Democrats really care about me more."

Sorry, just no, we don't get to get by anymore on "hey at least they're not Republicans." That attitude is literally how we got here and why we're actively slipping into fascism. They've got to be a lot damn better than Republicans for young people to give a shit. Kneeling in kente cloths is not real change.
posted by deadaluspark at 7:18 AM on January 7, 2022 [19 favorites]


Are we really at the point where a group of people can engineer a plot to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power and come within moments of bringing down our entire government and get away with it because there isn't hard enough evidence to overcome the political fallout of prosecution? Is Trump really that untouchable? Could he really shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, in broad daylight, and get away with it?

Yes.

I will ask this in response. In terms of legal reprisals and American justice systems... whom or what does Trump fear?

Impeachment didn't faze him; his defenders barely bothered to consider the charges, much less refute them, and his Senate jury allies yawned and voted en masse for acquittal and paid no significant price for doing so. The 1/6 Committee will never see Trump dragged before them, compelled to testify; they're having enough trouble getting his flunkies to honor subpoenas and document demands, much less the ringleaders. With respect to that, they can stall and stall with injunctions and bogus executive privilege claims and court battles over details until the cows come home.

Pretty much the only thing that has ever made Trump howl THIS IS THE LINE YOU SHALL NOT CROSS is investigation of his finances, his business dealings, his tax returns, his funding sources. And there have been some mild feelers in that direction, but once again, he will stall and scream and deny until Judgment Day arrives. My best hope, put rudely, is that a massive stroke or something similar will render Trump irrelevant and pass leadership onto the Next Available Dipshit.
posted by delfin at 7:39 AM on January 7, 2022 [8 favorites]


Please don't do this right now. The reason people think this is because both parties feed at the same trough.

I would rather have more parties, abolish the Senate, and heck, move away from growth capitalism. I'm just saying that "Would you like your arm burned with fire (D) or do you want to be thrown in a wood chipper (R)" is not a hard question to answer. In our current system, voting D to keep the right out of office does not mean you want to give Pelosi a great big hug. It should not be the beginning or end of our attempts to fix the system. But it's pretty clear that Republicans would repeal the ACA, pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement, be 10x harder on immigrants, give zero fucks instead of 1 about POC, etc. If people don't vote and let the Trumps of the world run the show, it's basically accelerationism. It's saying "since the Ds don't represent my beliefs fully, let's just let things get really crazy, then maybe we can get on with the luxury gay space communism revolution". Which might be what happens anyway, but I would rather at least kind of sort of hold the line as long as possible.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:00 AM on January 7, 2022 [9 favorites]


that's the common red state belief that they have all the food and can starve the blue cities

It's also commonly overlooked that the most productive agricultural region in the U.S. is right in the middle of California (produces approximately 1/4 of the nation's food supply, including over 40% of all fruits and nuts).

Biden's speech yesterday, along with the persistent and continually-visible efforts of the House committee, are starting to gain some cultural momentum. Some accountability for 1/6 may yet happen. (n.b., not a statement of optimism.)
posted by LooseFilter at 8:09 AM on January 7, 2022 [6 favorites]


Let us fervently hope.
posted by y2karl at 8:12 AM on January 7, 2022


To say nothing of the millions of Black, people of color, LGBTQIA, etc. people you *desperately* want to say you represent while *desperately* trying to ignore they don't live in one of the 15 Acceptable Cities To Live In.

The problem there, as I've said before, is that the rot is even in those Acceptable Cities. I am a trans woman in New York City, arguably the starting place of the modern LGBTQIA movement, and I don't feel safe here - between the macho kinds who see me as an offense, and the cops who are incredibly Trumpist in general, and with how things are in Terf IslandGreat Britain and the Canadian press (fuck you three different ways with wrought iron bars, Jordan Peterson and your entire fucking ilk and I include you too, Margaret Atwood) and in Mexico and most of the Roman Catholic-centric countries of South America, and how much of Europe lately, means that it's possibly my only potential safe place might be New Zealand. How I would get there, I have no idea.

I mean, honestly, all things considered, fleeing might be the best option, period. I say that as someone who strongly thinks those who flee are leaving their brethren who can't find ways to flee to suffer greater evils.

If the white supremacist theocrats get the kind of control they seem to want, they're going to start outright ignoring the rules, so that probably means raiding pharmacies for the addresses of those who get medications they don't approve of. Fleeing will be the only choice because when the NYPD (for one group) sends a dozen cops in riot armor with automatic weapons to kick in a door, it's probably too late to be going down the fire escape; fleeing early will be the only option just to not flat out die (either because the cops will just figure it's easier, or later, on The Wall).

For a moment I thought Warnes Starrcoat was using a flying potion over the Village of Hommlet.

Trumpists and the Elemental Evils do bear a resemblance.
posted by mephron at 8:58 AM on January 7, 2022 [6 favorites]


the reaction will be more dramatic than 2016 but I don't see a general strike or sabotage or anything like that happening

I remember the response to Trump's "Muslim ban" with a certain amount of hope here. Maybe we've all been ground down so much by the past half decade that that sort of mobilization wouldn't happen, but I still hold out a small amount of faith that stealing the election is a line we won't let them cross.

....and now I've looked back at news articles from those long-ago days and reminded myself that those massive protests didn't actually work, the Supreme Court upheld the ban with some tweaking around the edges, and it stayed in effect until Biden overturned it. So I'm back to my normal baseline hope level ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by ook at 9:08 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm just saying that "Would you like your arm burned with fire (D) or do you want to be thrown in a wood chipper (R)" is not a hard question to answer.

The answer is "neither, these are both terrible options and I would like to live in a world where those aren't considered serious choices." Seriously, you're not making voting sound more fun or effective in any way, you're making it sound utterly pointless and a form of consenting to let people in power harm us.

I found this piece in the Washington Post interesting: Opinion: 3 retired generals: The military must prepare now for a 2024 insurrection.
posted by bile and syntax at 9:09 AM on January 7, 2022 [8 favorites]


Election expert Rick Hasen shouts that "No One Is Coming to Save Us From the ‘Dagger at the Throat of America’." His view of the three key principles we should operate under:
- To begin with, Democrats should not try to go it alone in preserving free and fair elections.
- Second, because law alone won’t save American democracy, all sectors of society need to be mobilized in support of free and fair elections.
- Finally, mass, peaceful organizing and protests may be necessary in 2024 and 2025.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:14 AM on January 7, 2022 [3 favorites]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election because of the election and everything that's followed on from it? Not talking COVID here, but purely the "it's the end of America!" reactions. I can think of 100+ friends or colleagues who have at least casually talked about it, but not one person who's done it.

It's not that easy to be able to leave the country, especially since 2020. If you're not valuable jobwise and/or married to someone in another country, good luck with that.

My half-dozen friends who have left the U.S. permanently have universally been tech workers,

Right.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:36 AM on January 7, 2022 [13 favorites]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election ...

Or w's, before him?

No. Oh, many talk, and dream about it, and some start the process, only to be thwarted because for the vast majority of US citizens it isn't an option. We can visit on a Tourist Visa, sure but they don't want us to move there -- we cannot flee, there's nowhere to go.
posted by Rash at 10:50 AM on January 7, 2022 [9 favorites]


I think a lot of people are like I was a few years ago, and the fact that there are people actually living in the District of Columbia and not just going to work there from commuter communities

It's a common misperception, since what most people see of DC is what statehood proponents call the Federal Enclave: the central core of government buildings, the White House and Washington Monument, the Mall with its Smithsonian museums, etc. This map at the DC Statehood site shows how much more of the District is residential.
posted by Rash at 11:00 AM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election ...


Consider this anecdata, but every single person I know who left the US, mostly before Trump's election, but at least one since, has decided to extend a "several years in $country" to "seeking permanent residency and/or citizenship, and intends never to return to live in the US."
posted by tclark at 11:02 AM on January 7, 2022 [7 favorites]


As part of relieving the pain briefly, let us thank Stephen Colbert:

Abhor-Rent: 525,600 Minutes Since The Insurrection
posted by mephron at 12:01 PM on January 7, 2022 [5 favorites]


Americans tend to think immigrating to another country is like moving to another state and, worst case, you can just drive on up to Canada with your hopes and dreams and Correct Values the way you can just throw your bag in the car and move to Los Angeles to try and be famous.

Of course, if you look into it, it's not nearly that simple. If you are: relatively young, relatively healthy, relatively educated, relatively wealthy, and in a fairly narrow set of in-demand occupations, then it CAN be that simple. It's like being a free agent in sports. If you're really rich and really good, then sure you can just move to Europe and go "pff, why doesn't EVERYONE do this?" the way everyone should just move to California to escape Le Cheeto, etc.

But if you're older, sicker, not as educated, not as wealthy, and/or not in a fairly narrow set of in-demand occupations, it can be much harder.

Want to move to Canada? Better at LEAST have a college degree, preferably be under 40 (and try really hard not to be over 47), have lots of work experience, preferably have work arranged in a field and profession Canada actually wants, preferably have been to Canada or worked there or have relatives there, and ideally have money.

On the other hand, if you have over $500,000, you can go pretty much anywhere. But then you probably aren't worried about this anyway.

The other thing is, of course, America Bad, but the question is which hegemon do you want to worry about? If you stay in the Americas, obviously the Monroe Doctrine. Move to Asia? You can worry about China or America or Russia or India, depending on where you wind up. Europe? That's Russia again.

Not to mention the fashy right is on the march in many of the countries people would want to move to. (observe Britain, Australia's PM is a Pentecostal that believes in laying on of hands, absolutely don't look at how the French treat Muslims and people of color or Le Pen, AfD is doing well in the eastern German states, etc. etc.).
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 12:10 PM on January 7, 2022 [16 favorites]


I disagree.* But this is not the thread.


*a temp sockpuppet in the early throes of lurve with the old couch potato, now I'm back using my own name ;p
posted by infini at 12:27 PM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


Anecdata: I know three couples who've moved from the USA to New Zealand in the last year. One member of each couple is a New Zealander, so getting visas wasn't much of a problem. But it does demonstrate that people who had been settled in the US for a very long time had decided to make the move away.

mephron: means that it's possibly my only potential safe place might be New Zealand. How I would get there, I have no idea.

Partnership visa? Highly-skilled visa? (Academic at the moment as the borders are closed due to COVID). Or come on a tourist visa and apply for refugee status? Things would probably have to get a bit worse in the US for that to be possible, but NZ has granted humanitarian protection to trans people in the past, including from the UK.
posted by Pink Frost at 12:32 PM on January 7, 2022 [4 favorites]


A few thoughts from an outsider, if I may:

Yes, the system is bad and you should have preferential voting, or runoffs like the French, and more than two parties, and no electoral college....but you don't. And you can't change that. At a macro level, the only way to stop the Republicans is with another party - and that pretty much has to be the Dems. Yes they suck in a lot of ways, but the only way I can see to make things better is to engage with them and make them better. And doing so at all levels - trying to win the low level state and county elections so you can run things your way, and trying to improve the system.

Secondly: a lot of apocalyptic talk in this thread about an actual civil war. But that really doesn't seem that likely IMO, unless you somehow got national guard or US military units in red states rebelling? What I'm scared of and see as more likely is a move to something like Hungary. Things will feel relatively normal for most people. But the ruling party will effectively be a one-party state, will have taken control of institutions like the judiciary and the civil service and the media, will have moved against the universities, will be actively persecuting minorities. It will be nasty and ugly, but much more of a slow decline, whose effects are unevenly distributed, than a total collapse, IMO [cf Freedom House, Freedom in the World, where the US still scores relatively highly, but is slowly declining so it now sits equal to or below countries that were dictatorships or one-party states relatively recently (Romania, Greece, South Korea)].
posted by Pink Frost at 12:51 PM on January 7, 2022 [20 favorites]


I know a couple of fairly rich people who are trying to move to ROMANIA, because all their other options (Scandinavia and UK) were a no-go. I assume this is because of their age and non-marketable skill set. (They are in their fifties, as am I.)

I used to think of escape. Now I think of working with the local cohort I have to keep our little metropolis going. Everywhere is going to shit, in their own way.
posted by RedEmma at 12:53 PM on January 7, 2022 [10 favorites]


I remind my friends gently each month that we are all already living in our end times shelters. Make the most of them.
posted by Harry Caul at 12:57 PM on January 7, 2022 [9 favorites]


why doesn't EVERYONE do this?" the way everyone should just move to California to escape Le Cheeto, etc.
How the Insurrections' Ideology Came Straight out of 1990s California Politics

Twitter link to an LA Times Article.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:44 PM on January 7, 2022


I think a lot of people are like I was a few years ago, and the fact that there are people actually living in the District of Columbia and not just going to work there from commuter communities.

Not just a lot of people, but a lot of MeFites - hit us up for a meet-up next time you're in town.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:03 PM on January 7, 2022 [2 favorites]


Ghostride the Whip:Not to mention the fashy right is on the march in many of the countries people would want to move to

This bears repeating. I doubt it will be news to anyone on MeFi, but this is a global phenomenon. Various right-wing politicians and talking heads out here in western Europe made it EXTREMELY clear throughout the last administration and ESPECIALLY in the wake of the 2020 General that they and their numerous supporters were not only rooting hard for the American right, they were also taking notes. Wealthy EU countries with nice castles and (heretofore) strong welfare states are not at all immune, and this shit is just starting to ramp up.

I'm not saying this to freak people out (I doubt anyone in this thread could get any more freaked out than we already are) or imply that there's no escape: what it means is that we are all in the same very leaky boat, and that we can and must support each other in any way we can while we work to right the ship. Otherwise we cannot win, and we need to win.
posted by peakes at 2:19 PM on January 7, 2022 [15 favorites]


I remind my friends gently each month that we are all already living in our end times shelters. Make the most of them.

LOL nope not dying in this particular shithole. Unless the world ends in the next...3.5 weeks.

Seriously what is the point of telling people that, jesus christ. Why not just go up to 4 year olds and yell THERE ARE MONSTERS AND THEY REALLY ARE GOING TO EAT YOU, it would be as useful and as kind.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 4:17 PM on January 7, 2022 [22 favorites]


...he [Trump] will stall and scream and deny until Judgment Day arrives

When it comes time to appear before Saint Peter at the Pearly Gates, the Eternal Donald will have an accountant, several attorneys, and a paid substitute in tow.
posted by cenoxo at 5:10 PM on January 7, 2022 [1 favorite]


chavenet > Barbara Walter's new book is getting a lot of ink, but The Economist thinks she's exaggerating the danger: An expert on civil war issues a warning about America

Alternate Outline.com link.


I didn't think this article made a very good counterargument. Based on a few things in it, like toying with both-sides-ing the rise of white nationalism* and ignorance of both the representation of police and military adjacent people among the insurrectionists and the political leanings of police as an institution (as we've seen demonstratively in the treatment of BLM protesters vs anti-mask/vax protesters, proud boys, etc)**, I don't find the author particularly persuasive. Further, "No country as sophisticated, modern, liberal and democratic as contemporary America has ever descended into civil war" is not a convincing argument -- such countries haven't been around for very long and would make up a pretty small and specific set. That and [the police and military will save us]** are basically the only counterarguments the author presents.

* "The most egregious culprits are on the right, but some on the left have exacerbated the split by alienating white Americans: urging minorities to think of themselves first and foremost as members of a racial group, as some activists do, ultimately encourages the majority to do likewise."
** "It has exceptionally strong, professional and apolitical armed forces. Its police, though far from perfect, uphold the law, as do its courts."
posted by The Great Big Mulp at 5:25 PM on January 7, 2022


urging minorities to think of themselves first and foremost as members of a racial group, as some activists do, ultimately encourages the majority to do likewise."

Stop hitting yourself, stop hitting yourself!
posted by flamk at 6:21 PM on January 7, 2022 [7 favorites]


Secession is unconstitutional per Texas v. White:
... And when [the Articles of Confederation] were found to be inadequate to the exigencies of the country, the Constitution was ordained "to form a more perfect Union." It is difficult to convey the idea of indissoluble unity more clearly than by these words. What can be indissoluble if a perpetual Union, made more perfect, is not?
posted by kirkaracha at 8:58 PM on January 7, 2022


[Apologies, I just realized I accidentally linked to Ghostride the Whip's profile rather than their last comment on 7 Jan.]
posted by peakes at 4:49 AM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election ...


I left the US when W was reelected, and I came back during Obama's first term, so six years. I moved to Germany and got a job teaching, and then a work visa for that job. At the time you had to have a job offer and recommendation from the employer that stated that you, as a non-German, had a skillset that essentially no other German had and thus they NEEDED to hire you. Some of that is just bureaucracy and some is to show that they actually had a need to hire you. It was okay to enter Germany on a tourist visa and then get the job and temporary work visa. I am also sure that as a white man with a university degree they didn't see many problems with letting me work there. I renewed that for several years and was close to being allowed to apply for permanent residency when I left.

So it can/could be done. We think about leaving again every now and then, but aren't quite sure what we would do. I can be a professor almost anywhere now, and Mrs Berlin has multiple degrees and all kinds of experience. But we don't know where we would go, and it would probably take something really extreme, like a real tangible threat to our wellbeing.
posted by Snowishberlin at 8:37 AM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]


Some of you may find this tweet cathartic. Others, not so much. Yes, I know, I know, Olbermann == Howard Beale Ted Baxter Howard Cosell Sarah McLachlan (for the incongruous, endless death-row dog tweets)... but if you're on the blue side of this topic, is he wrong?
posted by zaixfeep at 1:47 PM on January 8, 2022 [3 favorites]


Secession is unconstitutional per Texas v. White

Right-wingers have shown time and again that they no respect for our laws, and January 6, 2021 is a demonstration of that. Why would they respect the Constitution?
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:51 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]


Because secession of the western seaboard presumes a right-wing junta in possession of the Presidency, and a pliant Supreme Court.

But really, it's nonsense. Go look at the electrical grid.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 PM on January 8, 2022


Once civil war breaks out the attacking side isn't going to be bound by the constitution, at least as far as succession goes.
posted by Mitheral at 7:29 PM on January 8, 2022 [1 favorite]


As cognized from the Constitutional perspective/the party holding power the secession is the aggressor, in the sense of casus belli and the law of war (and the Constitutional precedent, although the seceding states presumably no longer care).

In any pragmatic analysis, the question is how far is the faction in possession of the nominal control of the currency and the military (and nuclear arsenal) is prepared to go. And, I suppose, the utility and communications infrastructure.

What the west has, is a lot of stuff the east can't do without. Farms, tech, ports, hydro, nukes, you name it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:39 PM on January 8, 2022


>I am also sure that as a white man with a university degree they didn't see many problems with letting me work there. I renewed that for several years and was close to being allowed to apply for permanent residency when I left

exact same pattern w/ me and Japan in the 1990s. My state pension kicks in in 2029 so I will be pretty mobile then I guess.

Hell, I haven't been in the office in nearly 2 years so technically I could WFH from overseas if they let me. Alternating 3 months in California and 3 months in Japan somewhere would be nice!

(rents in Japan haven't gone up a yen since I left 20+ years ago!)
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:46 PM on January 8, 2022 [2 favorites]


Or, if you want to get all Shadowrun about it: can NSA root the FAANGs faster than they can react? Because we wouldn't get Cascadia/NCR -- we'd get a technoentertainment oligarchy.

As posted previously: the Super Rich of Silicon Valley Have a Doomsday Escape Plan [gcache link to Bloomberg article]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:46 PM on January 8, 2022


if i don't raise my kid here (for as long as it takes me to become an inspirational martyr for narrative purposes), then who is going to excel at the youth games and eventually lead a dedicated cadre of unbrainwashed children to overthrow the fascist regime, as the young adult dystopian literature has been conditioning me for generations now to believe is inexorably necessary? or has it conditioned me to live in simmering fascism without noticing the heat and provide another generation of fucking consumer to churn the lucre or worse?

seriously though, i rely on little lurk's mother to determine when it will be time to flee to the relatively-stable european country or the (frankly, frightening) other country of contended europeanness, to which they could both more-or-less easily, legally flee. there were moments during the last administration...

i, enjoying pretty much all of the privileges, could probably follow them. probably it would be better, should i stay, to infiltrate a redder district and vote hard (and figure out how to contribute to whatever -- i don't want to use the word! -- organized subversive or fascist-opposing activities there are going on). probably wouldn't have to go too far to find a red district.

emphatically would not be in favor of such emigration before the global sars2 situation has calmed down somewhat. y'know, ... until the fascist menace outweighs those concerns.

on preview: doomsday escape schema are a great boondoggle; in the preposterously unlikely event it works out perfect for them then my child or my child's child might someday humiliate and overthrow their tyranny on tv by sheer athleticism and panache (and an adorable supporting cast and cgi millions of perky teens aspiring to the common purpose of FREEDOM or whatever, and, y'know, really good costumes). shame about the wasted resources though, but of what isn't that true?
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:29 PM on January 8, 2022 [2 favorites]


Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election

My wife's son moved to Europe three years ago. He and his wife think it will be a far better place to raise a family. They also want to be farmers, and don't think the US model works on a small-scale any more. They think Norway offers what they're looking for.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:01 AM on January 9, 2022 [2 favorites]


What the west has, is a lot of stuff the east can't do without. Farms, tech, ports, hydro, nukes, you name it.

The east can't do without those things, which is why it also has those things and more. A lot of Brexiteers were making similar arguments prior to the UK leaving the EU. They were all wrong. If by west we're mostly talking California plus a few neighboring states, there's not much to look forward to in an exit from the US. California is big, but it would be small compared to the rest of the US (40 vs. 300 million people). If the rest of the US were to stay united, they'd get everything they want. From tech firms to more business at their ports as business and government activity shifts to the larger economic area.

Seceding due to serious political concerns is one thing (avoiding a dictatorship would be one), but the economic consequences would in no way be positive because the east "needs" the west.
posted by romanb at 7:40 AM on January 9, 2022


This take from 538 says Jan. 6 was more about anti-establishmentarianism than right-wing ideology.
posted by NotLost at 6:10 PM on January 9, 2022


Yes, again, everyone should read Martin Gurri's prescient The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:19 PM on January 9, 2022


>more anti-establishmentarianism than right-wing ideology

https://www.kapwing.com/explore/theyre-the-same-picture-meme-maker
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 8:04 PM on January 9, 2022


A year after election, RNC still spending hundreds of thousands to cover Trump's legal bills – The unusual move is indicative of Trump's ongoing influence, experts say., Soo Rin Kim, ABC News, January 10, 2022:
More than a year after the 2020 presidential election, the GOP is still covering numerous legal bills for the benefit of former President Donald Trump -- and the price tag is ruffling the feathers of some longtime GOP donors who are now critical of Trump.

In October and November alone, the Republican National Committee spent nearly $720,000 of its donor money on paying law firms representing Trump in various legal challenges, including criminal investigations into his businesses in New York, according to campaign finance records.

Trump's legal bills have sent the Republican Party's total legal expenditures soaring in recent months, resulting in $3 million spent just between September and November. In contrast, the Democratic National Committee has been gradually winding down its legal expenses over the last few months.

Financial support notwithstanding, the GOP and Trump have not always had a smooth relationship over the past year. In the final days of Trump's presidency, Trump told McDaniel he was leaving the GOP and creating his own political party, only to back down after McDaniel threatened to stop paying Trump's legal bills for his post-election challenges, according to a book [*] by ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl.

Both Trump and [RNC Chairman Ronna] McDaniel have denied the story….
If there’s one thing the Donald does well, it’s spending other people’s money.

*Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show, Guardian review, 28 Nov 2021.
posted by cenoxo at 7:49 AM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]


Trump told McDaniel he was leaving the GOP and creating his own political party, only to back down after McDaniel threatened to stop paying Trump's legal bills

Tell me about the RINOs again.
posted by box at 8:25 AM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]


And Trump may be the worst RINO of all. Per the above “according to a book” link, Trump told RNC chair he was leaving GOP to create new party, says new book – Jonathan Karl shares what Trump said before backing down., Will Steakin, ABC News, November 8, 2021:
…With just hours left in his presidency, Trump was telling the Republican Party chairwoman [Ronna McDaniel] that he was leaving the party entirely. The description of this conversation and the discussions that followed come from two sources with direct knowledge of these events.

"I'm done," Trump told McDaniel. "I'm starting my own party."

"You cannot do that," McDaniel told Trump. "If you do, we will lose forever."

"Exactly. You lose forever without me," Trump responded. "I don't care."

Trump's attitude was that if he had lost, he wanted everybody around him to lose as well, Karl writes. According to a source who witnessed the conversation, Trump was talking as if he viewed the destruction of the Republican Party as a punishment to those party leaders who had betrayed him -- including those few who voted to impeach him and the much larger group he believed didn't fight hard enough to overturn the election in his favor.

According to the book, "McDaniel and her leadership team made it clear that if Trump left, the party would immediately stop paying legal bills incurred during post-election challenges."

"But, more significant, the RNC threatened to render Trump's most valuable political asset worthless," Karl writes, referring to "the campaign's list of the email addresses of forty million Trump supporters."

"It's a list Trump had used to generate money by renting it to candidates at a steep cost," says the book. "The list generated so much money that party officials estimated that it was worth about $100 million."

Five days after revealing plans that could have destroyed his own political party on that last flight aboard Air Force One, Karl writes, Trump backed down, saying he would remain a Republican after all….
At least he’s consistent. Truth, lies, ethics, morals, friends, enemies, employees, partners, associates, promises, laws, the Constitution, political parties, et al., are irrelevant to the Donald. Only money, ego, power, and revenge count, and they are insatiable.
posted by cenoxo at 10:30 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]


It amazingly batshittery that the RNC was so threatened by Trump threatening to leave that they felt the need to threaten him back lest the party implode.
posted by Mitheral at 12:07 PM on January 10, 2022


Quid pro quo. It would be enlightening to know the ownership agreement and revenue rights for that ~$100,000,000 RNC voter database. Remember their big data leak in 2017?
posted by cenoxo at 1:50 PM on January 10, 2022


Remember when the RNC didn't want to share their data with the Brad Parscale-linked WinRed, only to see the Trump campaign take over Republican voter data and fundraising, steer a bunch of campaign money to Trump associates, hoodwink a bunch of donors into weekly recurring contributions, and break a bunch of campaign finance laws?
posted by box at 2:21 PM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]


I dunno, I think the order of threats as reported is the wrong way around. More like Trump threatened to go rogue when the RNC showed a lack of enthusiasm for paying his existing and potential legal bills, rather than the RNC suddenly growing a spine after meekly going along with this asshole's chaos fuckery for six years. I can imagine the RNC types slow-rolling any commitment of support in hopes that Trump and his minions would grow tired of their vacillations and go to the next target(s) on their grift list. They were probably banking on him looking forward to going back to a life of media celebrity without the burdens of governing, like Sarah Palin's post-gubernatorial career but raised to a higher power. And given how much of that hundred-million-dollar donors list would switch allegiances overnight with Trump bolting the party, I'd expect the RNC would be the ones pissing themselves from fear of a schism, and realizing that bankrolling his court battles would be less injurious in the long run.
posted by hangashore at 2:24 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]


The Mother of All Shitshows is on hiatus, but for how long??
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:00 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]


Truth, lies, ethics, morals, friends, enemies, employees, partners, associates, promises, laws, the Constitution, political parties, et al., are irrelevant to the Donald. Only money, ego, power, and revenge count, and they are insatiable.
posted by cenoxo


This is the key to understanding Trump and his fellow travellers. Their demands cannot be sated. No matter how much you concede to them, they will be back tomorrow demanding more. They don't get off on being dominant, they get off on the act of dominating. Once that is done and you have submitted, the thrill for them is gone, so they have to do it all over again.

In short, they cannot do peacetime, only endless conflict.

It is what makes them so dangerous.
posted by Pouteria at 6:03 PM on January 10, 2022 [14 favorites]


cupcakeninja: "Does anyone on this thread know anyone who has left the U.S. since Trump's election"

My wife and I are having this conversation now. I've already obtained derivative citizenship in another country, and she could live there on a spousal visa without too much trouble, it seems.

We're discussing the conditions under which we'll decide to pull the ripcord and bail out. I think there's a better than even chance that the 2024 election will be stolen by the GOP, and I regard that as a bailout moment. The biggest obstacle (aside from turning everything in our lives upside down) would be getting our cats in.
posted by adamrice at 11:25 AM on January 14, 2022


The Supreme Court cleared the way Wednesday for the release of presidential records from the Trump White House to a congressional committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
I'm honestly a little surprised.
posted by Mitheral at 7:34 PM on January 19, 2022 [3 favorites]


Pouteria > This is the key to understanding Trump and his fellow travellers. Their demands cannot be sated. No matter how much you concede to them, they will be back tomorrow demanding more. They don't get off on being dominant, they get off on the act of dominating. Once that is done and you have submitted, the thrill for them is gone, so they have to do it all over again. In short, they cannot do peacetime, only endless conflict. It is what makes them so dangerous.

It’s domestic abuse on a national scale, and Trump’s temporary restraining order may expire on November 5, 2024.
posted by cenoxo at 10:14 AM on January 20, 2022 [1 favorite]


Trump’s temporary restraining order may expire on November 5, 2024.

Trump the person may expire before then.
posted by Pouteria at 6:44 PM on January 21, 2022


I knew several people who left the US behind after the second election of GWB and have never looked back.

If I had had any foresight at all back when I was young and relatively healthy enough to actually do it, I would have made it my number one priority to get whatever kind of qualifications would have made me a good candidate to emigrate. But it’s too late for me now, and all that’s left for me to do is whatever I can to make it better for future citizens.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:15 PM on January 21, 2022 [2 favorites]


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