Yuval Noah Harari argues that Invading Ukraine is Very Bad
February 11, 2022 3:35 PM Subscribe
The decline of war in human history is now at stake The decline of war didn’t result from a divine miracle or from a change in the laws of nature. It resulted from humans making better choices. It is arguably the greatest political and moral achievement of modern civilisation. Unfortunately, the fact that it stems from human choice also means that it is reversible.
"Ukraine is one of the most interesting and important places in the world because it’s in the forefront of the struggle for human freedom both against internal dictatorship and external invasion and imperialism," Harari said about Ukraine.
"Ukraine is one of the most interesting and important places in the world because it’s in the forefront of the struggle for human freedom both against internal dictatorship and external invasion and imperialism," Harari said about Ukraine.
This feels like an incredibly blinkered view of the present which has only had relatively reduced war because American hegemony has tempered a lot of potential conflict (only America and its allies are allowed to invade countries without consequences). The US is no longer the world's only superpower, we're going back to the great powers model and war is back on the table.
posted by dis_integration at 5:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 5:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS AT STAKE! {paywalled}
posted by metametamind at 5:19 PM on February 11, 2022 [61 favorites]
posted by metametamind at 5:19 PM on February 11, 2022 [61 favorites]
This feels like an incredibly blinkered view of the present which has only had relatively reduced war because American hegemony has tempered a lot of potential conflict (only America and its allies are allowed to invade countries without consequences).
Agreed. And it’s hard to see the past 100 or so years as an example of a trend in reduction of war as a civilization, given the Hemoclysm of the 20th Century.
So…off to read the article, I guess.
posted by darkstar at 5:58 PM on February 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
Agreed. And it’s hard to see the past 100 or so years as an example of a trend in reduction of war as a civilization, given the Hemoclysm of the 20th Century.
So…off to read the article, I guess.
posted by darkstar at 5:58 PM on February 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
For a nontrivial argument that long-term trends in intra-human interactions are towards less violence, see the book The Better Angels Of Our Nature, by Pinker, 2011.
The linked article by Harari basically acknowledges this, calling attention to the preciousness of our present mostly-peaceful world order:
The linked article by Harari basically acknowledges this, calling attention to the preciousness of our present mostly-peaceful world order:
The decline of war has been a psychological as well as statistical phenomenon. Its most important feature has been a major change in the very meaning of the term “peace”. For most of history peace meant only “the temporary absence of war”. When people in 1913 said that there was peace between France and Germany, they meant that the French and German armies were not clashing directly, but everybody knew that a war between them might nevertheless erupt at any moment.posted by fantabulous timewaster at 6:29 PM on February 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
In recent decades “peace” has come to mean “the implausibility of war”. For many countries, being invaded and conquered by the neighbours has become almost inconceivable.
Is the possibility of war in Ukraine that different from war in other parts of the world, or is this article really about the horror of white people war coming back in fashion?
Is there really a place in modern discourse for repeatedly using the term “law of the jungle” when “law of temperate forests” would be fine instead?
posted by snofoam at 6:32 PM on February 11, 2022 [23 favorites]
Is there really a place in modern discourse for repeatedly using the term “law of the jungle” when “law of temperate forests” would be fine instead?
posted by snofoam at 6:32 PM on February 11, 2022 [23 favorites]
It’s OK when America does it. /s
posted by furtive at 6:55 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by furtive at 6:55 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
This feels like an incredibly blinkered view of the present which has only had relatively reduced war because American hegemony has tempered a lot of potential conflict (only America and its allies are allowed to invade countries without consequences).
First you secure a monopoly on the use of force.
Then you act like a classic monopoly and choke the supply.
Then there's peace.
posted by ocschwar at 7:04 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
from the article:
"While in the realm of art and thought, most of the leading lights —from Pablo Picasso to Stanley Kubrick—are better known for depicting the senseless horrors of combat than for glorifying its architects."
I seriously blame Bismarck. But where there no voices crying out before, i.e. art, depicting the bad of war.
The survival of the fittest has come to replace the jungle law thing. might makes right. snooze you lose.
I think the author is trying to reach a point that war is not Inevitable and the Ukraine situation is not contingent on old criteria.
First you secure a monopoly on the use of force
Gulf of Tonkin
Then you act like a classic monopoly and choke the supply.
limited rules of engagement like not bombing a capital.
Then there's p̶e̶a̶c̶e̶ ceasefire.
yup.
posted by clavdivs at 7:09 PM on February 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
"While in the realm of art and thought, most of the leading lights —from Pablo Picasso to Stanley Kubrick—are better known for depicting the senseless horrors of combat than for glorifying its architects."
I seriously blame Bismarck. But where there no voices crying out before, i.e. art, depicting the bad of war.
The survival of the fittest has come to replace the jungle law thing. might makes right. snooze you lose.
I think the author is trying to reach a point that war is not Inevitable and the Ukraine situation is not contingent on old criteria.
First you secure a monopoly on the use of force
Gulf of Tonkin
Then you act like a classic monopoly and choke the supply.
limited rules of engagement like not bombing a capital.
Then there's p̶e̶a̶c̶e̶ ceasefire.
yup.
posted by clavdivs at 7:09 PM on February 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
ctrl + F "nuclear":
I wonder if what's changed now is the nuclear calculus turned on its head: current leaders might not believe that anyone would actually go nuclear. Is the US really going to go nuclear if Russia pushes its neighbors around? So far, no. Is the US really going to nuke China if it invades Taiwan? We'll probably see.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:12 PM on February 11, 2022 [25 favorites]
Over the past few generations, nuclear weapons have turned war between superpowers into a mad act of collective suicide, forcing the most powerful nations on Earth to find less violent ways to resolve conflict.The entire article, and all articles on this topic, can be boiled down to this. Nuclear weapons made direct Great Power wars too dangerous, so instead of the giant mega wars of the first half of the 20th century we just get a bunch of low-level wars (and wars in the periphery which kill huge numbers but don't bother the core very much).
I wonder if what's changed now is the nuclear calculus turned on its head: current leaders might not believe that anyone would actually go nuclear. Is the US really going to go nuclear if Russia pushes its neighbors around? So far, no. Is the US really going to nuke China if it invades Taiwan? We'll probably see.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:12 PM on February 11, 2022 [25 favorites]
Is the possibility of war in Ukraine that different from war in other parts of the world, or is this article really about the horror of white people war coming back in fashion?
The history of racist ideology applied to Eastern Europe is not black and white (no pun intended, it just is). The question is not so much about the horror of 'white people war', but rather 'what happens when not-really-white people wage war?' — in this context usage of the phrase 'law of the jungle' is not surprising.
posted by UN at 7:19 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
The history of racist ideology applied to Eastern Europe is not black and white (no pun intended, it just is). The question is not so much about the horror of 'white people war', but rather 'what happens when not-really-white people wage war?' — in this context usage of the phrase 'law of the jungle' is not surprising.
posted by UN at 7:19 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I've been having this strange sense that Putin is using the pandemic and stoking the flames of disension as a cleaver to paralyze democratic states while he does his Ukraine invasion, and we'd too bothered with our own internal struggles to go and do something... but then again... we don't live in a Tom Clancy novel, would we even act anyway, we're dumb enough to do this by ourselves and taking advantage of an opportunity is not the same as masterminding it.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:27 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:27 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
i don't think they're going to invade - they're just going to let the u s look stupid by proclaiming an invasion is going to happen
posted by pyramid termite at 7:29 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 7:29 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Anyone who thinks Russia won't invade Ukraine has to explain why Crimea and Georgia were different.
posted by pwnguin at 7:35 PM on February 11, 2022 [42 favorites]
posted by pwnguin at 7:35 PM on February 11, 2022 [42 favorites]
Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. Russians don’t want it to. [WaPo]
According to our latest survey of 3,245 Russians in December, just 8 percent think Russia should send military forces to fight against Ukrainian government troops there. Only 9 percent think Russia should train or equip separatist forces with Russian arms.
posted by mstokes650 at 7:37 PM on February 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
According to our latest survey of 3,245 Russians in December, just 8 percent think Russia should send military forces to fight against Ukrainian government troops there. Only 9 percent think Russia should train or equip separatist forces with Russian arms.
posted by mstokes650 at 7:37 PM on February 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Is the possibility of war in Ukraine that different from war in other parts of the world, or is this article really about the horror of white people war coming back in fashion?
The Ukrainians have fought two revolutions to stop their country from sinking into the authoritarian miasma that Putin et al are trying to inflict on the world. And they by and large succeeded (modulo Crimea and Donbas.).
So the horror is not a horror of "white people war."
(And they're Slavs, so they've spent a considerable being regarded and treated as not white.)
posted by ocschwar at 7:38 PM on February 11, 2022 [46 favorites]
The Ukrainians have fought two revolutions to stop their country from sinking into the authoritarian miasma that Putin et al are trying to inflict on the world. And they by and large succeeded (modulo Crimea and Donbas.).
So the horror is not a horror of "white people war."
(And they're Slavs, so they've spent a considerable being regarded and treated as not white.)
posted by ocschwar at 7:38 PM on February 11, 2022 [46 favorites]
Anyone who thinks Russia won't invade Ukraine has to explain why Crimea and Georgia were different.
crimea was historically russian and most of the people there are russian
georgia because there was a lot of ethnic strife going on, not that russia wasn't taking advantage of it
we don't have the means to enforce our wishes in the world anymore
posted by pyramid termite at 7:48 PM on February 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
crimea was historically russian and most of the people there are russian
georgia because there was a lot of ethnic strife going on, not that russia wasn't taking advantage of it
we don't have the means to enforce our wishes in the world anymore
posted by pyramid termite at 7:48 PM on February 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
we don't have the means to enforce our wishes in the world anymore
Who is the we that you refer to? If I'm a country bordering Russia (I am) I should be OK with annihilation and/or annexation because Putin has his reasons? People here are on edge.
posted by UN at 7:59 PM on February 11, 2022 [61 favorites]
Who is the we that you refer to? If I'm a country bordering Russia (I am) I should be OK with annihilation and/or annexation because Putin has his reasons? People here are on edge.
posted by UN at 7:59 PM on February 11, 2022 [61 favorites]
I can't see Putin going all in but perhaps take Luhansk Oblast.
posted by clavdivs at 8:06 PM on February 11, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 8:06 PM on February 11, 2022
This is not a video game.
posted by UN at 8:13 PM on February 11, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by UN at 8:13 PM on February 11, 2022 [31 favorites]
So long, and thanks for all the fish.
posted by Saxon Kane at 8:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Saxon Kane at 8:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Anyone who thinks Russia won't invade Ukraine has to explain why Crimea and Georgia were different.
Crimea was annexed without approximately zero loss of life. The local security forces (quite reasonably) didn't put up a fight.
The war in Georgia took two weeks and ended with Russia carving out a couple separatist bits of Ukraine as a separate entity and then withdrawing. I think a couple hundred people on each side were killed.
So both were really pretty low cost for Putin and both were basically securing bits of a neighboring country that were, on the whole, amenable to the intervention.
An all-out invasion of Ukraine would be... not that. At all. It would be much more costly to do. That's why Putin is massing more than a hundred thousand troops on the borders, because he'd need that much to do it. That's also why it would be so much worse than those if it happens. Like, unimaginably worse.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [18 favorites]
Crimea was annexed without approximately zero loss of life. The local security forces (quite reasonably) didn't put up a fight.
The war in Georgia took two weeks and ended with Russia carving out a couple separatist bits of Ukraine as a separate entity and then withdrawing. I think a couple hundred people on each side were killed.
So both were really pretty low cost for Putin and both were basically securing bits of a neighboring country that were, on the whole, amenable to the intervention.
An all-out invasion of Ukraine would be... not that. At all. It would be much more costly to do. That's why Putin is massing more than a hundred thousand troops on the borders, because he'd need that much to do it. That's also why it would be so much worse than those if it happens. Like, unimaginably worse.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:17 PM on February 11, 2022 [18 favorites]
historically russian and most of the people there are russian
By that logic, it should be Ukraine annexing Russia (the state, not the whole federal republic), since the Muscovites are historically just a breakaway faction of the Kievan Rus.
Don't play the 'ethnic similarities are a justification for annexing your neighboring territories by force' game, please.
posted by bartleby at 8:18 PM on February 11, 2022 [69 favorites]
By that logic, it should be Ukraine annexing Russia (the state, not the whole federal republic), since the Muscovites are historically just a breakaway faction of the Kievan Rus.
Don't play the 'ethnic similarities are a justification for annexing your neighboring territories by force' game, please.
posted by bartleby at 8:18 PM on February 11, 2022 [69 favorites]
Is the possibility of war in Ukraine that different from war in other parts of the world, or is this article really about the horror of white people war coming back in fashion?
When did "white people war" go away? The former Yugoslavia was on fire in the 90s. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, and after reading several Wikipedia articles I'm still not sure that the Chechen war ever actually ended.
Just because America's attention has been focused on Afghanistan and Iraq for the past two decades doesn't mean no one else is getting up to shit.
we don't have the means to enforce our wishes in the world anymore
"We" in this context includes not just the United States but the European Union, the latter of which is Russia's biggest trading partner and energy customer. There's a lot of soft power that can be thrown around if need be. And if it comes to the Atlantic alliance throwing resources behind Ukraine and Russia throwing them at the seperatists, we've got significantly deeper pockets than they do.
That doesn't make nuclear brinkmanship any less scary, or (a far more likely scenario) make it any less potentially horrible for the Ukrainian and Russian civilians who would be actually facing the nightmare of great power proxy conflict manifesting as subsidized civil war. But this sad-violin "fading superpower" thing has been greatly exaggerated.
posted by AdamCSnider at 8:26 PM on February 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
When did "white people war" go away? The former Yugoslavia was on fire in the 90s. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, and after reading several Wikipedia articles I'm still not sure that the Chechen war ever actually ended.
Just because America's attention has been focused on Afghanistan and Iraq for the past two decades doesn't mean no one else is getting up to shit.
we don't have the means to enforce our wishes in the world anymore
"We" in this context includes not just the United States but the European Union, the latter of which is Russia's biggest trading partner and energy customer. There's a lot of soft power that can be thrown around if need be. And if it comes to the Atlantic alliance throwing resources behind Ukraine and Russia throwing them at the seperatists, we've got significantly deeper pockets than they do.
That doesn't make nuclear brinkmanship any less scary, or (a far more likely scenario) make it any less potentially horrible for the Ukrainian and Russian civilians who would be actually facing the nightmare of great power proxy conflict manifesting as subsidized civil war. But this sad-violin "fading superpower" thing has been greatly exaggerated.
posted by AdamCSnider at 8:26 PM on February 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
historically russian and most of the people there are russian
By that logic, it should be Ukraine annexing Russia (the state, not the whole federal republic), since the Muscovites are historically just a breakaway faction of the Kievan Rus.
It's not that it's a justification, but it's a reasonable explanation of why annexing Crimea went so smoothly and didn't really cost Putin anything other than spending a lot of money on a really long bridge. As a practical matter, annexing Crimea was easy. Supporting separatists in Donbas and installing a puppet local government was fairly easy. Launching a full ground invasion with a hundred thousand troops is a completely different scale, and a lot harder, and there's lots more reasons not to do it.
That's not to say Putin won't do it anyway.
any less potentially horrible for the Ukrainian and Russian civilians who would be actually facing the nightmare of great power proxy conflict manifesting as subsidized civil war
fwiw they've already got a subsidized civil war
posted by BungaDunga at 8:40 PM on February 11, 2022 [10 favorites]
By that logic, it should be Ukraine annexing Russia (the state, not the whole federal republic), since the Muscovites are historically just a breakaway faction of the Kievan Rus.
It's not that it's a justification, but it's a reasonable explanation of why annexing Crimea went so smoothly and didn't really cost Putin anything other than spending a lot of money on a really long bridge. As a practical matter, annexing Crimea was easy. Supporting separatists in Donbas and installing a puppet local government was fairly easy. Launching a full ground invasion with a hundred thousand troops is a completely different scale, and a lot harder, and there's lots more reasons not to do it.
That's not to say Putin won't do it anyway.
any less potentially horrible for the Ukrainian and Russian civilians who would be actually facing the nightmare of great power proxy conflict manifesting as subsidized civil war
fwiw they've already got a subsidized civil war
posted by BungaDunga at 8:40 PM on February 11, 2022 [10 favorites]
Anyone who thinks Russia won't invade Ukraine has to explain why Crimea and Georgia were different.
A big new supply of anti-tank missiles is one difference.
posted by pompomtom at 9:06 PM on February 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
A big new supply of anti-tank missiles is one difference.
posted by pompomtom at 9:06 PM on February 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
why annexing Crimea went so smoothly and didn't really cost Putin anything
Well that, and the fact that Ukraine isn't part of NATO or the EU. (yet)
He's facing a 'grab it while you still can' deadline.
He got Sevastopol through European style appeasement already. Now it's down (non-militarily) to the brinksmanship between cutting Europe off from their oil and gas sales vs. getting kicked out of SWIFT (the international banking system).
The long game is either: a) the rest of Europe stops being dependent on Russia for energy or b) they keep burning Fossily Fuelovich, and Russia just waits for the Arctic to melt and they get the warm water ports they've always wanted. (For as long as it takes for either the underwater methane deposits or the Siberian permafrost to thaw, anyway; at which point nothing matters because then we're all fucked globally.)
posted by bartleby at 9:09 PM on February 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
Well that, and the fact that Ukraine isn't part of NATO or the EU. (yet)
He's facing a 'grab it while you still can' deadline.
He got Sevastopol through European style appeasement already. Now it's down (non-militarily) to the brinksmanship between cutting Europe off from their oil and gas sales vs. getting kicked out of SWIFT (the international banking system).
The long game is either: a) the rest of Europe stops being dependent on Russia for energy or b) they keep burning Fossily Fuelovich, and Russia just waits for the Arctic to melt and they get the warm water ports they've always wanted. (For as long as it takes for either the underwater methane deposits or the Siberian permafrost to thaw, anyway; at which point nothing matters because then we're all fucked globally.)
posted by bartleby at 9:09 PM on February 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
A big new supply of anti-tank missiles is one difference.
The Magnitsky Act being the other.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:20 PM on February 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Magnitsky Act being the other.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:20 PM on February 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Washington state was historically Russian.
And it has been a huge reason that I find the idea of Cascadia or any other "split up WA" as likely Russian sock puppetry influencing useful idiots.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:26 PM on February 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
And it has been a huge reason that I find the idea of Cascadia or any other "split up WA" as likely Russian sock puppetry influencing useful idiots.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:26 PM on February 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
(Cascadia's just the central region of when Alaska, Yukon, B.C., Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja all jointly secede and team up as the new nation of Pacifica. Or Ecotopia, if you're a classic solarpunk reader.)
posted by bartleby at 11:15 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by bartleby at 11:15 PM on February 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
we're going back to the great powers model and war is back on the table.
Back from what? As I was a little surprised to learn recently, the US has had a whole 15 years of peace over its entire existence. Maybe 16 now. Regardless of Putin's inclinations, I'm convinced this is a gift to a bored US military after the end of Afghanistan. They aren't going to let a Clinton downsize happen again if they can help it.
posted by rhizome at 1:01 AM on February 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
Back from what? As I was a little surprised to learn recently, the US has had a whole 15 years of peace over its entire existence. Maybe 16 now. Regardless of Putin's inclinations, I'm convinced this is a gift to a bored US military after the end of Afghanistan. They aren't going to let a Clinton downsize happen again if they can help it.
posted by rhizome at 1:01 AM on February 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
From a country rife with refugees from Eastern Ukraine (where the "bloodless" conflict claimed the lives of over 10,000 people) and totalitarian pro-Russian Belarus, it really is something to read about how it's all a big Risk game and the other side needs to win from time to time. Especially with memories of the betrayal in Yalta and the half-century of occupation it cost us. My grandmother's terrified that was will come to us as well, and the only arguments I have against it are our EU and NATO status.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:50 AM on February 12, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:50 AM on February 12, 2022 [31 favorites]
> repeatedly using the term “law of the jungle” when “law of temperate forests” would be fine instead?
The word "Jungle" has been somewhat changed in the modern lexicon, really it just means somewhere that's hard to traverse or offers significant challenges. See Miriam-Webster, "1a. an impenetrable thicket or tangled mass of tropical vegetation," "2b: a place of ruthless struggle for survival."
posted by KeSetAffinityThread at 3:45 AM on February 12, 2022
The word "Jungle" has been somewhat changed in the modern lexicon, really it just means somewhere that's hard to traverse or offers significant challenges. See Miriam-Webster, "1a. an impenetrable thicket or tangled mass of tropical vegetation," "2b: a place of ruthless struggle for survival."
posted by KeSetAffinityThread at 3:45 AM on February 12, 2022
Here are two comments totaling 1500 words from 3 weeks ago that nicely summarize the history of the russia-ukraine conflict
1,2
posted by lalochezia at 4:48 AM on February 12, 2022 [20 favorites]
1,2
posted by lalochezia at 4:48 AM on February 12, 2022 [20 favorites]
Thanks for the links to those Reddit comments, lalochezia. Very informative. I wonder if that Redditor has a blog.
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 5:20 AM on February 12, 2022
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 5:20 AM on February 12, 2022
“Jungle” is to “tropical forest” what “swamp” is to “wetlands”; a more vague, subjective term with inconvenience to humans placed first.
posted by acb at 5:32 AM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 5:32 AM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
And it has been a huge reason that I find the idea of Cascadia or any other "split up WA" as likely Russian sock puppetry influencing useful idiots.
The guy behind a California secession campaign was doing it from literally Russia. He's apparently come back to the US since.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:43 AM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
The guy behind a California secession campaign was doing it from literally Russia. He's apparently come back to the US since.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:43 AM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
When Russia conquered Crimea, Ukraine had only about 3000 actual ready for war soldiers. Today is has over 100,000. They still lack the air power and anti-aircraft systems to be able to stop Russia; but it could be very bloody.
posted by interogative mood at 8:36 AM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 8:36 AM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Given that Germany, whilst refusing to provide Ukraine with weapons of any sort, gave them 5,000 military helmets, it may be marginally less bloody than otherwise.
posted by acb at 8:49 AM on February 12, 2022
posted by acb at 8:49 AM on February 12, 2022
Here are two comments.
Similarly
What You Need to Know about Russia
What You Need to Know About Ukraine
Rulers from Sargon the Great to Benito Mussolini sought to immortalise themselves by conquest (and artists such as Homer and Shakespeare happily obliged such fancies)
That requires a very unsubtle reading of both Homer and Shakespeare.
posted by BWA at 9:10 AM on February 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
Similarly
What You Need to Know about Russia
What You Need to Know About Ukraine
Rulers from Sargon the Great to Benito Mussolini sought to immortalise themselves by conquest (and artists such as Homer and Shakespeare happily obliged such fancies)
That requires a very unsubtle reading of both Homer and Shakespeare.
posted by BWA at 9:10 AM on February 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
Here are two comments totaling 1500 words from 3 weeks ago that nicely summarize the history of the russia-ukraine conflict
Which confirms my suspicions. Putin wants a puppet government of autonomous republics in a loose federation and not territory except for maybe the Mariupol line. 125,000 troops sounds like a lot but to invade and occupy Ukraine for any conceivable length of time Putin would need an army triple that size. Iraq was of similar size, had something like 180,000 boots on the ground, and a government that couldn't fight back and that was still an utter fucking disaster.
Given that Germany, whilst refusing to provide Ukraine with weapons of any sort, gave them 5,000 military helmets, it may be marginally less bloody than otherwise.
The biggest problem is that it's still winter in Europe. Natural gas is how 50% of Germany's households heat themselves and a third of that gas comes from Russia. If Germany makes any overt moves to support Ukrainian interference then Russia turns the gas tap off and granny freezes. Germany can survive without Russian gas come the spring but it wouldn't survive winter but there's physically not enough infrastructure to get natural gas into Germany even if they tried buying LNG from the US, Australia, and Qatar.
The West isn't entirely blameless here either. They keep backing Putin into a corner rather than giving him an off-ramp from this insanity. If the US had said only Article 5, no NATO boots or hardware in Ukraine ever, even if they become a member, it's quite probable that all this goes away. Russia's strategic interest in a non-NATO Baltic is because they have to beef up their own military to cover the border. Defending nearly 2000 miles of border doesn't come cheap and it's a drag on any economy. The Baltics are one thing. They're 500 miles between the three of them. Ukraine on the other hand is a 1300 mile border Russia would need to man. All of a sudden the amount of money required to make sure NATO can't steamroll them at will pretty much quadruples.
If China decided to make an alliance with Mexico and then started bringing DF-21s to the south bank of the Rio Grande, the US would be drawing up War Plans White, Red, and Green that afternoon to invade Mexico by dinner. Sure, Mexico as a sovereign nation has every right to invite China to protect it from US imperial aggression but when it comes to the world of geopolitics it's just not polite. Biden would be better off finding a way to pull the proverbial missiles out of Turkey rather than ratcheting up the rhetoric. Putin is an evil, evil man but he's right as hell when he says there will be no winners.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:31 AM on February 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Which confirms my suspicions. Putin wants a puppet government of autonomous republics in a loose federation and not territory except for maybe the Mariupol line. 125,000 troops sounds like a lot but to invade and occupy Ukraine for any conceivable length of time Putin would need an army triple that size. Iraq was of similar size, had something like 180,000 boots on the ground, and a government that couldn't fight back and that was still an utter fucking disaster.
Given that Germany, whilst refusing to provide Ukraine with weapons of any sort, gave them 5,000 military helmets, it may be marginally less bloody than otherwise.
The biggest problem is that it's still winter in Europe. Natural gas is how 50% of Germany's households heat themselves and a third of that gas comes from Russia. If Germany makes any overt moves to support Ukrainian interference then Russia turns the gas tap off and granny freezes. Germany can survive without Russian gas come the spring but it wouldn't survive winter but there's physically not enough infrastructure to get natural gas into Germany even if they tried buying LNG from the US, Australia, and Qatar.
The West isn't entirely blameless here either. They keep backing Putin into a corner rather than giving him an off-ramp from this insanity. If the US had said only Article 5, no NATO boots or hardware in Ukraine ever, even if they become a member, it's quite probable that all this goes away. Russia's strategic interest in a non-NATO Baltic is because they have to beef up their own military to cover the border. Defending nearly 2000 miles of border doesn't come cheap and it's a drag on any economy. The Baltics are one thing. They're 500 miles between the three of them. Ukraine on the other hand is a 1300 mile border Russia would need to man. All of a sudden the amount of money required to make sure NATO can't steamroll them at will pretty much quadruples.
If China decided to make an alliance with Mexico and then started bringing DF-21s to the south bank of the Rio Grande, the US would be drawing up War Plans White, Red, and Green that afternoon to invade Mexico by dinner. Sure, Mexico as a sovereign nation has every right to invite China to protect it from US imperial aggression but when it comes to the world of geopolitics it's just not polite. Biden would be better off finding a way to pull the proverbial missiles out of Turkey rather than ratcheting up the rhetoric. Putin is an evil, evil man but he's right as hell when he says there will be no winners.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:31 AM on February 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
OTOH, there is the question of autonomy and self-determination. The Ukrainian people overwhelmingly want closer integration with Europe, with high levels of support for NATO membership as a hedge against their larger neighbour who regards them as their own “near abroad". To say that Russia should have a veto over this is like saying, for example, that Ireland should be expelled from the EU because it is in London's sphere of influence, not Brussels'.
posted by acb at 9:42 AM on February 12, 2022 [35 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:42 AM on February 12, 2022 [35 favorites]
YCPR, Russia is the only party to the conflict that's trying to alter the status quo along it's borders. It is the sole belligerent; puppetting Belarus to drive a Polish refugee crisis, annexing Crimea, staging proxy war in Donbas. It is the sole escalating party, and appeasement of Putin's incremental thefts of adjacent sovereign states is not the answer.
The collective "west" is not to blame for checking the violent authoritarian push from the failing post-soviet Russian state.
posted by zeypher at 9:54 AM on February 12, 2022 [33 favorites]
The collective "west" is not to blame for checking the violent authoritarian push from the failing post-soviet Russian state.
posted by zeypher at 9:54 AM on February 12, 2022 [33 favorites]
The West isn't entirely blameless here either. They keep backing Putin into a corner rather than giving him an off-ramp from this insanity. If the US had said only Article 5, no NATO boots or hardware in Ukraine ever, even if they become a member, it's quite probable that all this goes away.
not necessarily - there’s an argument that the real issue for russia is the continued existence and operation of the eu, not nato:
Put briefly, the continued expansion of the European geo-economic project poses a threat to the current Kremlin's political survival. […] The expansion of EU influence puts insurmountable pressure on the Russian political economy to move from a rent-based, patronal model of wealth creation and power relations, to a system of institutionalized competition. Having satellite states that are governed in the same patronalist mode as Russia gives Moscow geo-economic breathing space, adding years or decades to the system's viability. Losing those satellites removes those years and decades. That's why Moscow needs an effective veto not over Kyiv's defense policy, but over its ability to integrate with the EU, to reform its institutions, and to reorient its markets […] keeping Ukraine out of NATO won't be enough for Moscow, if Kyiv keeps pursuing ties with the EU.
(twitter, threadreader and more detail along the same lines in this 2017 analysis)
tl;dr it’s the money, more than the military
posted by inire at 12:19 PM on February 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
not necessarily - there’s an argument that the real issue for russia is the continued existence and operation of the eu, not nato:
Put briefly, the continued expansion of the European geo-economic project poses a threat to the current Kremlin's political survival. […] The expansion of EU influence puts insurmountable pressure on the Russian political economy to move from a rent-based, patronal model of wealth creation and power relations, to a system of institutionalized competition. Having satellite states that are governed in the same patronalist mode as Russia gives Moscow geo-economic breathing space, adding years or decades to the system's viability. Losing those satellites removes those years and decades. That's why Moscow needs an effective veto not over Kyiv's defense policy, but over its ability to integrate with the EU, to reform its institutions, and to reorient its markets […] keeping Ukraine out of NATO won't be enough for Moscow, if Kyiv keeps pursuing ties with the EU.
(twitter, threadreader and more detail along the same lines in this 2017 analysis)
tl;dr it’s the money, more than the military
posted by inire at 12:19 PM on February 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Having satellite states that are governed in the same patronalist mode as Russia gives Moscow geo-economic breathing space, adding years or decades to the system's viability. Losing those satellites removes those years and decades.
To put in laymen's terms: young Ukrainians were about to get the opportunity to come to Paris, wait on tables, sleep on a park bench, and come back with a handful of euros, the way Poles and Romanians can. That had to be stopped because Ukraine getting rich this way would make Russia look pathetic.
posted by ocschwar at 12:49 PM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
To put in laymen's terms: young Ukrainians were about to get the opportunity to come to Paris, wait on tables, sleep on a park bench, and come back with a handful of euros, the way Poles and Romanians can. That had to be stopped because Ukraine getting rich this way would make Russia look pathetic.
posted by ocschwar at 12:49 PM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
FYI: young Ukrainians are already doing that in Poland. As I mentioned above, we have a very large Ukrainian diaspora, and it's been honestly nice over the last decade seeing them advance from agricultural work / cleaning (the slang word for a house cleaner in Warsaw is literally Ukrainka, "Ukrainian woman") to waiting tables and retail work, to now running their own businesses and properly translating their education to be doctors and scientists and developers. I suspect they're staying in Poland despite the low wages in EU terms because the languages are mutually intelligible to a degree and easy to cross-learn, because the diaspora is very well-organised and supportive, and because it's close enough to go home often. And it's definitely mobilising them to raise that question at home: if the Poles could go from bankruptcy and ruin to a good economy and half-decent social safety net in a few decades, why can't we?
The way Russian forces supported the crushing of the recent protests in Kazakhstan is straight out of the same playbook: the current Russian state power can't afford examples of unpunished self-determination because of rising frustration at home. As long as the Russian people have examples of failed protests and revolutions, they can be held in check. Ukraine being successful after their well-publicised revolution would be a great big example otherwise.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:04 PM on February 12, 2022 [28 favorites]
The way Russian forces supported the crushing of the recent protests in Kazakhstan is straight out of the same playbook: the current Russian state power can't afford examples of unpunished self-determination because of rising frustration at home. As long as the Russian people have examples of failed protests and revolutions, they can be held in check. Ukraine being successful after their well-publicised revolution would be a great big example otherwise.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:04 PM on February 12, 2022 [28 favorites]
YCPR, Russia is the only party to the conflict that's trying to alter the status quo along it's borders. It is the sole belligerent; puppetting Belarus to drive a Polish refugee crisis, annexing Crimea, staging proxy war in Donbas. It is the sole escalating party, and appeasement of Putin's incremental thefts of adjacent sovereign states is not the answer.
That's kind of an intellectual falsehood because the change in the status quo has been the expansion of NATO over the past 70 years. Russia has been invaded multiple times by Western Europe. They took the biggest hit in WW2 and have seen their country savaged by the ambitions of Western European great powers. They are not without reason to fear Europe.
Since the decline of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact the line of demarcation has been progressively rolled back from the Tatra mountains, where the line is only 600 miles long, all the way back past the Dnieper to the point where there is no natural barrier to Russia. There's just the European Plain. A NATO army could leave from Luhansk and cut Moscow off from the caucuses before they have a chance to blink.
On top of that there's idiots like Liz Truss who publicly refuse to recognize the Voronezh and Rostov oblasts as part of Russia. So when the Russian people look at the situation, what the hell is that supposed to look like? There's a continent that's basically killed 10 million Russians over two wars in the past 120 years and one of the diplomats from that same continent are telling Russia that if the UK had their way they'd take even more land away from them.
Putin is evil as fuck but any sane Russia has good reason to want buffer states between it and continental Europe.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:28 PM on February 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
That's kind of an intellectual falsehood because the change in the status quo has been the expansion of NATO over the past 70 years. Russia has been invaded multiple times by Western Europe. They took the biggest hit in WW2 and have seen their country savaged by the ambitions of Western European great powers. They are not without reason to fear Europe.
Since the decline of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact the line of demarcation has been progressively rolled back from the Tatra mountains, where the line is only 600 miles long, all the way back past the Dnieper to the point where there is no natural barrier to Russia. There's just the European Plain. A NATO army could leave from Luhansk and cut Moscow off from the caucuses before they have a chance to blink.
On top of that there's idiots like Liz Truss who publicly refuse to recognize the Voronezh and Rostov oblasts as part of Russia. So when the Russian people look at the situation, what the hell is that supposed to look like? There's a continent that's basically killed 10 million Russians over two wars in the past 120 years and one of the diplomats from that same continent are telling Russia that if the UK had their way they'd take even more land away from them.
Putin is evil as fuck but any sane Russia has good reason to want buffer states between it and continental Europe.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:28 PM on February 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Nobody is going to start a land war in Russia. Please stop fantasizing about it.
Do you want a devastating and horrific nuclear war? That's how you get a devastating and horrific nuclear war.
posted by schmod at 3:01 PM on February 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
Do you want a devastating and horrific nuclear war? That's how you get a devastating and horrific nuclear war.
posted by schmod at 3:01 PM on February 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
Russia doesn't just want no NATO troops anywhere near it (Ukraine, the Baltic states, ideally anywhere east of the Oder). It also doesn't want Maidan-style protest movements or functioning pluralist liberal democracies anywhere (geographically or culturally) near it, showing up its autocratic regime and demonstrating to its people that other things are possible. Is it entitled to have this existential threat to its settlement eliminated as well?
posted by acb at 3:21 PM on February 12, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:21 PM on February 12, 2022 [17 favorites]
That's kind of an intellectual falsehood because the change in the status quo has been the expansion of NATO over the past 70 years.
In case you don’t know, the expansion of NATO has not been done through military invasion, but countries choosing to join NATO. It is kind of like how people signing up for a gym membership is different from people being kidnapped.
posted by snofoam at 3:24 PM on February 12, 2022 [37 favorites]
In case you don’t know, the expansion of NATO has not been done through military invasion, but countries choosing to join NATO. It is kind of like how people signing up for a gym membership is different from people being kidnapped.
posted by snofoam at 3:24 PM on February 12, 2022 [37 favorites]
If the US had said only Article 5, no NATO boots or hardware in Ukraine ever, even if they become a member, it's quite probable that all this goes away.
Being as you are not in favor of the American hegemony, isn't this the kind of decision that Ukraine, an independent country, should make for itself?
posted by Anonymous at 3:49 PM on February 12, 2022
Being as you are not in favor of the American hegemony, isn't this the kind of decision that Ukraine, an independent country, should make for itself?
posted by Anonymous at 3:49 PM on February 12, 2022
Your Childhood Pet Rock, you seem mighty interested in defending poor old Russia from the aggression of the rest of Europe. Are we living on the same planet in which the USSR has imposed fifty years or more of savage, brutal dictatorship on its satellite states - of which my country was one - after an equally brutal occupation?
This region has no other hope other than NATO and western Europe, otherwise say goodby to millions of people, because we're gonners. Which seems OK with a healthy section of MeFi, since we;re white and all that, so I suppose we deserve what's coming to us.
posted by doggod at 3:50 PM on February 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
This region has no other hope other than NATO and western Europe, otherwise say goodby to millions of people, because we're gonners. Which seems OK with a healthy section of MeFi, since we;re white and all that, so I suppose we deserve what's coming to us.
posted by doggod at 3:50 PM on February 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
The ACOUP blog has some interesting discussion about this, oddly enough in its review of the system underneath Victoria 2. The key points: assuming equivalent adversaries, WWI was where the destruction required to conquer could not be made up by the value of what you conquered. All you can do is smash. Nuclear weapons just accelerated it.
Second, the historical tendency of power blocks was to balance out: nations would leave stronger blocks to prevent a war from their block being overwhelming. Since nuclear weapons took great power war off the table, this has changed, and that is new. Everyone wants to be part of NATO, even Russia for a while. It would be ironic (briefly) if countries joining NATO because nuclear war is inconceivable create a situation where nuclear war seems rationale to Russia.
Really though, the country of Russia and the people of Russia and the resources of Russia would be a great addition to the EU! Only the pesky government of Russia is in the way.
posted by BeeDo at 4:05 PM on February 12, 2022
Second, the historical tendency of power blocks was to balance out: nations would leave stronger blocks to prevent a war from their block being overwhelming. Since nuclear weapons took great power war off the table, this has changed, and that is new. Everyone wants to be part of NATO, even Russia for a while. It would be ironic (briefly) if countries joining NATO because nuclear war is inconceivable create a situation where nuclear war seems rationale to Russia.
Really though, the country of Russia and the people of Russia and the resources of Russia would be a great addition to the EU! Only the pesky government of Russia is in the way.
posted by BeeDo at 4:05 PM on February 12, 2022
On top of that there's idiots like Liz Truss who publicly refuse to recognize the Voronezh and Rostov oblasts as part of Russia. So when the Russian people look at the situation, what the hell is that supposed to look like?
Well, if you're linking to a Russian government propaganda agency about Liz Truss being so stupid she fell for a trick question from Sergei Lavrov, the answer is that TASS wants the Russian people to feel under threat. It doesn't say a lot about whether British official foreign policy is anything but to be run by the most dimwitted of politicians, because Britain's democracy reflects the best interests of the British people as poorly as Russia's pseudo-democracy does.
posted by ambrosen at 4:07 PM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Well, if you're linking to a Russian government propaganda agency about Liz Truss being so stupid she fell for a trick question from Sergei Lavrov, the answer is that TASS wants the Russian people to feel under threat. It doesn't say a lot about whether British official foreign policy is anything but to be run by the most dimwitted of politicians, because Britain's democracy reflects the best interests of the British people as poorly as Russia's pseudo-democracy does.
posted by ambrosen at 4:07 PM on February 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
I’m sorry but WTF with this comment:
“Crimea was historically russian and most of the people there are russian”
Do you actually know why it’s ostensibly “Russian” (despite 3million of them holding Ukrainian citizenship??). Crimea was Tatar, or primarily Muslim until Stalin starved 75-80% of the population by commandeering their grain in 1917/1918 so he could build a naval base on the Black Sea. The remaining Crimean Tatars were also subject to deportation to Siberian PoW camps during WWII.
Please don’t be so flippant with your words, Ukrainian-Russian history is very complicated within very living memory, and unfortunately isn’t easily summarized into a handful of easy to digest snippets.
posted by larthegreat at 5:47 PM on February 12, 2022 [29 favorites]
“Crimea was historically russian and most of the people there are russian”
Do you actually know why it’s ostensibly “Russian” (despite 3million of them holding Ukrainian citizenship??). Crimea was Tatar, or primarily Muslim until Stalin starved 75-80% of the population by commandeering their grain in 1917/1918 so he could build a naval base on the Black Sea. The remaining Crimean Tatars were also subject to deportation to Siberian PoW camps during WWII.
Please don’t be so flippant with your words, Ukrainian-Russian history is very complicated within very living memory, and unfortunately isn’t easily summarized into a handful of easy to digest snippets.
posted by larthegreat at 5:47 PM on February 12, 2022 [29 favorites]
Nobody is going to start a land war in Russia. Please stop fantasizing about it.
A little out of context (it's from about six years ago) but these thoughts from Angela Merkel still make a lot of sense to me:
“I am firmly convinced this conflict cannot be solved with military means [...] I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily. I have to put it that bluntly.” She added that force had not proved to be the solution in the past when dealing with Russia. “I grew up in East Germany, I have seen the Wall,” she said. “The Americans did not intervene in the Wall, but in the end we won.”
In other words, you don't beat Russia by going face to face with them in a war. You beat them by grinding them down by other means as Germany (and other Eastern Block concerns) did in bringing about the end of the Cold War.
posted by philip-random at 7:03 PM on February 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
A little out of context (it's from about six years ago) but these thoughts from Angela Merkel still make a lot of sense to me:
“I am firmly convinced this conflict cannot be solved with military means [...] I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily. I have to put it that bluntly.” She added that force had not proved to be the solution in the past when dealing with Russia. “I grew up in East Germany, I have seen the Wall,” she said. “The Americans did not intervene in the Wall, but in the end we won.”
In other words, you don't beat Russia by going face to face with them in a war. You beat them by grinding them down by other means as Germany (and other Eastern Block concerns) did in bringing about the end of the Cold War.
posted by philip-random at 7:03 PM on February 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
schroedinger: No. It's a decision that should be made by NATO member states as to whether a war with Russia is in their security interest. I mean this is the question that I keep wondering about. How the screaming fuck does including a state with an active civil war, belligerent nazis in their army, and a revanchist policy towards Crimea in your mutual security club make the existing members of that club more secure?
posted by Grimgrin at 7:52 PM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Grimgrin at 7:52 PM on February 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
There isn’t civil war in Ukraine. There is a Russian occupied region where Russian soldiers pretend not to be an invading army. That isn’t a civil war. NATO, the United States and most of the world considers the Soviet invasion and occupation of Crimea to be illegal and that it is sovereign Ukrainian territory.
Finally yes there are right wing extremists in the Ukrainian military . You can find right wing extremists in every military. It a constant problem and one that every country including NATO states have to deal with. Of course the way they have solved this problem is Russia is by putting them in charge. Putin is a right wing, nationalist dictator.
posted by interogative mood at 8:50 PM on February 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
Finally yes there are right wing extremists in the Ukrainian military . You can find right wing extremists in every military. It a constant problem and one that every country including NATO states have to deal with. Of course the way they have solved this problem is Russia is by putting them in charge. Putin is a right wing, nationalist dictator.
posted by interogative mood at 8:50 PM on February 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
There are a shitton of right wing extremists in the US Military but please don't come invade us, Russia.
posted by Justinian at 9:04 PM on February 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 9:04 PM on February 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
She added that force had not proved to be the solution in the past when dealing with Russia. “I grew up in East Germany, I have seen the Wall,” she said. “The Americans did not intervene in the Wall, but in the end we won.”
There were American tanks pointing at Soviet ones on the border between East and West Berlin. Those tanks didn't put an end to the Soviet Union, but that's not the point.
There's a widespread criticism/discussion within Germany right now on whether or not politicians have learned the right lessons from the past.
Russia is not some small neutral country that's simply trying to defend its borders, as one may think reading some of the comments here. It's a huge military power with a history of colonization and exploitation of its smaller neighbors.
posted by UN at 12:14 AM on February 13, 2022 [18 favorites]
There were American tanks pointing at Soviet ones on the border between East and West Berlin. Those tanks didn't put an end to the Soviet Union, but that's not the point.
There's a widespread criticism/discussion within Germany right now on whether or not politicians have learned the right lessons from the past.
Russia is not some small neutral country that's simply trying to defend its borders, as one may think reading some of the comments here. It's a huge military power with a history of colonization and exploitation of its smaller neighbors.
posted by UN at 12:14 AM on February 13, 2022 [18 favorites]
Apparently another of Russia's conditions for deescalation is that the EU abandons building a standard-gauge rail link through the Baltic states (as without a break of gauge it could be used for carrying NATO materiel for a push on Moscow).
posted by acb at 5:10 AM on February 13, 2022
posted by acb at 5:10 AM on February 13, 2022
I don't understand why so many commenters are treating the idea of a NATO invasion of Russia seriously. I suppose it's possible that I'm just naive, but is there any world where that's even on the table, much less worth considering as a real possibility?
posted by dbx at 6:45 AM on February 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by dbx at 6:45 AM on February 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
For all the people trying to make Russia seem reasonable here, I have two thoughts: first, Russia is totally free to build an EU-like democratic federation that is appealing enough to Ukraine that they want to join it. No one’s stopping them. second, I’m fine with justifying Russia’s historical and security claims around Ukraine as long as we can all agree to let Mexico build up a force around Texas and demand to take it back. That claim is at least as strong, and Texas is kind of a pain in the ass anyway.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:54 AM on February 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 8:54 AM on February 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
I'm sure NATO has a plan somewhere for an invasion, because that's what military strategists do. They make plans. As for the possibility of actually acting on one -- I'll leave that to people who know way more about the geopolitical realities of the situation than I do. That said, if my grasp of military history tells me anything, it's that Russia doesn't lose when it's invaded. Actually, Russia loses a lot when it's invaded -- they lost over 20 million people in World War Two by some estimates. But they can afford it. They've got vast depth in resources (human and otherwise). When it comes to a war of attrition, you can't beat them. And I have heard it argued that Putin is not above playing this particular card. A proper land war with the west is precisely the kind of thing that will guarantee him continued popular support. Whereas a continuation of Russia's current economic and social realities will probably be the end of him -- the old man who can no longer keep control of the game.
posted by philip-random at 8:58 AM on February 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by philip-random at 8:58 AM on February 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Or, as someone once said, “never underestimate the Russian people's capacity for suffering”.
posted by acb at 9:35 AM on February 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:35 AM on February 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia is totally free to build an EU-like democratic federation that is appealing enough to Ukraine that they want to join it. No one’s stopping them
This did in fact happen but was torpedoed by the EU Commission (Der Spiegel, 24 November 2014)
This did in fact happen but was torpedoed by the EU Commission (Der Spiegel, 24 November 2014)
At the EU-Ukraine Summit on Feb. 25, 2013, Yanukovych announced his intention to work more closely with Putin's customs union. The Eurasian Economic Union was Moscow's response to Brussels' growing influence, with the aim being that of creating a single market comprised of post-Soviet states, with Ukraine at its heart.posted by dmh at 10:25 AM on February 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
For Putin, the Eurasion Union is the core of a foreign policy plan to defend Moscow's traditional zone of influence and with which he wants to win back lost terrain. As is always the case when it comes to Russian foreign policy, it is also a question of status. Brussels did in fact offer Moscow some of the elements of an association agreement, but Russia, a former world power, didn't want to be treated like a second-class citizen in Brussels in the same way as other countries like Moldova or Armenia. Moscow insisted on its status as a major power and demanded equal footing.
The Kremlin then proposed to Brussels that negotiations be conducted between the EU and the Eurasion Union -- directly between the two blocs of power. But European Commission President José Manuel Barroso refused to meet with the leaders of the Eurasion Union, a bloc he considered to be an EU competitor.
"One country cannot at the same time be a member of a customs union and be in a deep common free-trade area with the European Union," the commission president said on February 25. He said that Kiev had to decide which path it wanted to take. The message was clear: Kiev had to choose either Brussels or Moscow.
What's happening with all those refugees stranded in Belarus?
posted by Mesaverdian at 10:48 AM on February 13, 2022
posted by Mesaverdian at 10:48 AM on February 13, 2022
Well, as the alternative is giving an entire other customs union comprised of post-Soviet states and anyone else Moscow might invite in direct unfiltered access to yours through Ukraine, that's obviously not viable. We've seen the EU put its foot down over a customs barrier between Northern Ireland and Great Britain because they can't entirely trust post-Brexit Britain to not stick it to Johnny Foreigner by flooding their market with mislabelled chlorine-washed chicken and flammable children's pyjamas laundered through Ireland; letting every kleptostate in the former USSR in was an obvious nonstarter from the outset.
posted by acb at 10:52 AM on February 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by acb at 10:52 AM on February 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
a revanchist policy towards Crimea
This is some impressively twisted reasoning you have there; the revanchist policy towards Crimea is RUSSIA'S. Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian sovereign territory is not recognised by any of the other permanent members of the UN Security Council and is in contravention of post-WWII international law.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:50 PM on February 13, 2022 [16 favorites]
This is some impressively twisted reasoning you have there; the revanchist policy towards Crimea is RUSSIA'S. Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian sovereign territory is not recognised by any of the other permanent members of the UN Security Council and is in contravention of post-WWII international law.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:50 PM on February 13, 2022 [16 favorites]
>Russia is totally free to build an EU-like democratic federation that is appealing enough to Ukraine that they want to join it. No one’s stopping them
>This did in fact happen but was torpedoed by the EU Commission (Der Spiegel, 24 November 2014)
I think "no one's stopping them" was meant as no one is stopping Russia from forming an economic federation that would be more attractive to Ukraine than the EU. The Eurasian Union on the other hand was always a Russia-first project, as that quote suggests:
"For Putin, the Eurasion Union is the core of a foreign policy plan to defend Moscow's traditional zone of influence and with which he wants to win back lost terrain."
Rather than presenting something more attractive than what the EU was offering, Putin offered temporarIy lower gas prices (after having already used gas prices as a weapon of influence on Ukraine), the purchase of billions of Ukrainian debt (which would make Ukraine beholden to Russia), and "he also threatened to launch a trade war that would drive an already fragile Ukrainian economy to ruin" (from the same Der Spiegel article).
And this is the whole point, that Putin has sought to influence, control, and dominate the states that surround Russia, most often by corrupt and violent means, rather than build anything mutually beneficial based on mutual respect of sovereignty. The conflict and distrust that Putin faces in the nations surrounding Russia is a direct result of a foreign policy that he (not the EU) has chosen.
As the joke goes:
"Russia is a peaceful country, surrounded by ceasefires!"
posted by Kabanos at 5:02 PM on February 13, 2022 [15 favorites]
>This did in fact happen but was torpedoed by the EU Commission (Der Spiegel, 24 November 2014)
I think "no one's stopping them" was meant as no one is stopping Russia from forming an economic federation that would be more attractive to Ukraine than the EU. The Eurasian Union on the other hand was always a Russia-first project, as that quote suggests:
"For Putin, the Eurasion Union is the core of a foreign policy plan to defend Moscow's traditional zone of influence and with which he wants to win back lost terrain."
Rather than presenting something more attractive than what the EU was offering, Putin offered temporarIy lower gas prices (after having already used gas prices as a weapon of influence on Ukraine), the purchase of billions of Ukrainian debt (which would make Ukraine beholden to Russia), and "he also threatened to launch a trade war that would drive an already fragile Ukrainian economy to ruin" (from the same Der Spiegel article).
And this is the whole point, that Putin has sought to influence, control, and dominate the states that surround Russia, most often by corrupt and violent means, rather than build anything mutually beneficial based on mutual respect of sovereignty. The conflict and distrust that Putin faces in the nations surrounding Russia is a direct result of a foreign policy that he (not the EU) has chosen.
As the joke goes:
"Russia is a peaceful country, surrounded by ceasefires!"
posted by Kabanos at 5:02 PM on February 13, 2022 [15 favorites]
What's happening with all those refugees stranded in Belarus?
Winter.
posted by ocschwar at 8:41 PM on February 13, 2022
Winter.
posted by ocschwar at 8:41 PM on February 13, 2022
What's happening with all those refugees stranded in Belarus?
They're still trying to get to the EU and the Polish border zone is still under martial law with no journalists allowed. There's a robust NGO and volunteer response, with both physical support and legal assistance to file for asylum, and people who manage to get through the border zone are treated humanely (asylum applications, refugee housing centers with food and basic healthcare), though the system is very overwhelmed, especially for psychological support. I've seen mentions that even the border guards are letting families through because they're tired of being ordered to be inhumane.
But the official policy remains pushbacks, and there have been multiple casualties due to the cold. Some victims have been buried by local Muslim communities, because that area has had Tartar settlements for centuries. I suspect there are many more victims we'll never find before the forest and the swamp claims them. Poland is attempting to build a godsdamned border fence, which is especially idiotic when it would have to cut in two the last great primeval forest in Europe, barring the migration of bison and moose and wolves.
It does sound like the volume of refugees is lessened both because the media value has played out, and because the refugee community has heard of how hard and dangerous the crossing is. I suspect the Ukrainian situation contributes - the refugees are fleeing war, they don't want to be in the middle of another one.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:07 PM on February 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
They're still trying to get to the EU and the Polish border zone is still under martial law with no journalists allowed. There's a robust NGO and volunteer response, with both physical support and legal assistance to file for asylum, and people who manage to get through the border zone are treated humanely (asylum applications, refugee housing centers with food and basic healthcare), though the system is very overwhelmed, especially for psychological support. I've seen mentions that even the border guards are letting families through because they're tired of being ordered to be inhumane.
But the official policy remains pushbacks, and there have been multiple casualties due to the cold. Some victims have been buried by local Muslim communities, because that area has had Tartar settlements for centuries. I suspect there are many more victims we'll never find before the forest and the swamp claims them. Poland is attempting to build a godsdamned border fence, which is especially idiotic when it would have to cut in two the last great primeval forest in Europe, barring the migration of bison and moose and wolves.
It does sound like the volume of refugees is lessened both because the media value has played out, and because the refugee community has heard of how hard and dangerous the crossing is. I suspect the Ukrainian situation contributes - the refugees are fleeing war, they don't want to be in the middle of another one.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:07 PM on February 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
And this is the whole point, that Putin has sought to influence, control, and dominate the states that surround Russia, most often by corrupt and violent means, rather than build anything mutually beneficial based on mutual respect of sovereignty
If we want to talk "mutual respect for sovereignty" then we have to talk about US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland's 2014 conversation with the US Ambassador to Ukraine to engineer the new Prime Minister for Ukraine, where she was famously recorded saying "Fuck Europe".
If we want to talk "mutual benefit" then we have to talk about the conflict of interest that got Hunter Biden a job he was wholly unqualified for in a country he has no connections to whatsoever.
I think it's a perversion to think that the West is involved in the Ukraine because of "mutual respect of sovereignty" or high-minded ideas about freedom and self-determination. It is pretty clear the West wants to extend its sphere of influence to include Ukraine, because other choices are simply not allowed. We goaded Ukraine into revolution, then acted all surprised when Russia didn't want a "color revolution"/"freedom" catastrophe on its borders, like happened in Lybia, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. "Fuck Europe" indeed.
posted by dmh at 6:54 AM on February 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
If we want to talk "mutual respect for sovereignty" then we have to talk about US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland's 2014 conversation with the US Ambassador to Ukraine to engineer the new Prime Minister for Ukraine, where she was famously recorded saying "Fuck Europe".
If we want to talk "mutual benefit" then we have to talk about the conflict of interest that got Hunter Biden a job he was wholly unqualified for in a country he has no connections to whatsoever.
I think it's a perversion to think that the West is involved in the Ukraine because of "mutual respect of sovereignty" or high-minded ideas about freedom and self-determination. It is pretty clear the West wants to extend its sphere of influence to include Ukraine, because other choices are simply not allowed. We goaded Ukraine into revolution, then acted all surprised when Russia didn't want a "color revolution"/"freedom" catastrophe on its borders, like happened in Lybia, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. "Fuck Europe" indeed.
posted by dmh at 6:54 AM on February 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
To be clear, I personally think Ukraine should become part of the Western sphere of influence. But we should be under no illusions about what it is we are doing, what it will cost, and the perspicacity of the opposition.
posted by dmh at 7:01 AM on February 14, 2022
posted by dmh at 7:01 AM on February 14, 2022
I think it's a perversion to think that the West is involved in the Ukraine because of "mutual respect of sovereignty" or high-minded ideas about freedom and self-determination. It is pretty clear the West wants to extend its sphere of influence to include Ukraine, because other choices are simply not allowed. We goaded Ukraine into revolution, then acted all surprised when Russia didn't want a "color revolution"/"freedom" catastrophe on its borders, like happened in Lybia, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Ukraine's color revolution was the very first one. And it was a catastrophe for nobody. The second was a catastrophe only because Russia chose to make it one.
posted by ocschwar at 7:06 AM on February 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Adam Something a left leaning YouTuber based in Eastern Europe has put together a really good summary of recent history in Ukraine. He has also done an short follow up video on the current invasion threat
posted by interogative mood at 8:13 AM on February 14, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 8:13 AM on February 14, 2022
I dunno oschwar, the Maidan 'revolution' has led to an ongoing civil war and the loss of Crimea. Seems plenty catastrophic to me. You can blame both of those things on Putin, but it's pretty clear they don't happen without the US-supported overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine.
posted by thedamnbees at 8:21 AM on February 14, 2022
posted by thedamnbees at 8:21 AM on February 14, 2022
Many think Putin aims to annex Ukraine. I find that implausible. That's based on assumption that Putin is primarily concerned with foreign policy. But what if his main concern is domestic one? What if the real goal is to keep Ukraine a failed state as an example to the Russians?
posted by acb at 9:09 AM on February 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:09 AM on February 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
US Ambassador to Ukraine to engineer the new Prime Minister for Ukraine, where she was famously recorded saying "Fuck Europe".
The linked transcript says "fuck the EU." Notably, the US is not a member of the EU. It wasn't our idea, and in a way, we are kind of "frenemies": the EU strengthens NATO member's economic situations, but also lets them collectively negotiate against us a bit harder.
posted by pwnguin at 9:37 AM on February 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
The linked transcript says "fuck the EU." Notably, the US is not a member of the EU. It wasn't our idea, and in a way, we are kind of "frenemies": the EU strengthens NATO member's economic situations, but also lets them collectively negotiate against us a bit harder.
posted by pwnguin at 9:37 AM on February 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
I dunno oschwar, the Maidan 'revolution' has led to an ongoing civil war and the loss of Crimea.
No. Putin's operations in Ukraine led to the ongoing civil war and the loss of Crimea.
posted by ocschwar at 11:27 AM on February 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
Putin's response to the Color Revolutions is no different from what the powers imposed in the Congress of Vienna: a reimposition of the Divine Right of Kings.
posted by ocschwar at 11:43 AM on February 14, 2022
posted by ocschwar at 11:43 AM on February 14, 2022
Yeah oschwar like I said, even if you blame Putin for both of those things, they still wouldn't have happened without the Maidan, an event which he sees (rightly or wrongly) as a US backed coup to install a pro-western, anti-russian government.
posted by thedamnbees at 12:13 PM on February 14, 2022
posted by thedamnbees at 12:13 PM on February 14, 2022
And the Maidan would not have happened if Putin had just allowed Yanukovich to green light integration with the EU and let those young Ukrainians go west to clean toilets for a season.
posted by ocschwar at 12:16 PM on February 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 12:16 PM on February 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
I don't think it's fair to portray Yanukovich as Putin's puppet. By all accounts he was a moderate who was seeking to maintain good relations with both Russia and the EU. I think he rejected the association agreement because he thought he could get a better deal. Unfortunately for him, it was an offer he couldn't refuse.
posted by thedamnbees at 12:59 PM on February 14, 2022
posted by thedamnbees at 12:59 PM on February 14, 2022
I think he rejected the association agreement because he thought he could get a better deal. Unfortunately for him, it was an offer he couldn't refuse.
I don't think you know the first thing about it, and all the vague insinuations that the EU had him over a barrel are just bizarre tankie-ism. It would be nice to be able to just roll my eyes and move on, or if you were to actually say something specific enough that there was something to refute, but I can't stand by while you're treating the EU as a purely bad faith actor here when any reasonable assessment is that Putin acts in far purer bad faith.
There is no reasonable assessment of this where Russia is not the prime instigator, and any assertions otherwise are harmful to the prospects of peace.
posted by ambrosen at 1:32 PM on February 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
I don't think you know the first thing about it, and all the vague insinuations that the EU had him over a barrel are just bizarre tankie-ism. It would be nice to be able to just roll my eyes and move on, or if you were to actually say something specific enough that there was something to refute, but I can't stand by while you're treating the EU as a purely bad faith actor here when any reasonable assessment is that Putin acts in far purer bad faith.
There is no reasonable assessment of this where Russia is not the prime instigator, and any assertions otherwise are harmful to the prospects of peace.
posted by ambrosen at 1:32 PM on February 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
My point was just that it doesn't appear that Putin forced Yanukovich to reject the association agreement. Is that specific enough for you to refute ambrosen? Is there any evidence to suggest that he did? Is there any evidence that Yanukovich was taking orders from Putin?
posted by thedamnbees at 2:35 PM on February 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by thedamnbees at 2:35 PM on February 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
No evidence just a "mysterious" dioxin poisoning for those who favor a closer relationship with the EU. Oh and losing parts of your country in a foreign invasion, that's just a normal and expected result in any election the man doesn't like.
posted by UN at 3:00 PM on February 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by UN at 3:00 PM on February 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
I'm sorry, thedamnbees, I can't answer that in a way that you will be able to process, because I am struggling pretty hard to understand what your model of the situation is.
Any reasonable person would be able to understand that neither side is being entirely straightforward and would be trying to project forwards from known motives and goals and working with known means of how the respective spy agencies on both sides work rather than just parroting “LOL, America bad, so Putin good”.
posted by ambrosen at 3:28 PM on February 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Any reasonable person would be able to understand that neither side is being entirely straightforward and would be trying to project forwards from known motives and goals and working with known means of how the respective spy agencies on both sides work rather than just parroting “LOL, America bad, so Putin good”.
posted by ambrosen at 3:28 PM on February 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
My point was just that it doesn't appear that Putin forced Yanukovich to reject the association agreement.
So Yanukovich stood in the path of his own young countrymen of his own free will?
Then WTF is Putin intervening? Dude should have said "Yankovich, you messed up" and let it go.
posted by ocschwar at 4:30 PM on February 14, 2022
Think of it as the Putin Tax. Do something he doesn't like? Give away at minimum one island or more. Just part of living with a big neighboring nation — and Russia is big.
posted by UN at 12:15 AM on February 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 12:15 AM on February 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Today Timothy Snyder posted a very interesting reflection on Putin and the mindset of a tyrant : What is Putin thinking?
posted by 15L06 at 12:48 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by 15L06 at 12:48 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also, let me recommend Snyder's six-part history of Ukraine in his substack.
I appreciate that he manages to combine both his knowledge as a historian and how much he cares to draw attention to the Ukrainian people.
posted by 15L06 at 1:02 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
I appreciate that he manages to combine both his knowledge as a historian and how much he cares to draw attention to the Ukrainian people.
posted by 15L06 at 1:02 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Today Timothy Snyder posted a very interesting reflection on Putin and the mindset of a tyrant : What is Putin thinking?
I don't find it very enlightening. He's right that Putin doesn't work in isolation, but his companions are not death and fear. They are mere men, who have names, and are listed on economic sanctions memorandums. AFAICT, his stay in power relies on keeping the support of such people, ala the "Rules for Rulers". It seems to me like those people have more influence on invasrion than any random 8 percent of Russians surveyed supporting it.
posted by pwnguin at 1:52 PM on February 15, 2022
I don't find it very enlightening. He's right that Putin doesn't work in isolation, but his companions are not death and fear. They are mere men, who have names, and are listed on economic sanctions memorandums. AFAICT, his stay in power relies on keeping the support of such people, ala the "Rules for Rulers". It seems to me like those people have more influence on invasrion than any random 8 percent of Russians surveyed supporting it.
posted by pwnguin at 1:52 PM on February 15, 2022
Ok, this is fucking bonkers. There is now a pontoon bridge across the Pripyat River in Belarus.
Yes, in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
posted by ocschwar at 6:10 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yes, in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
posted by ocschwar at 6:10 PM on February 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Based on Biden’s speech today I don’t expect a war. Ukraine will pinkie swear they are not applying for NATO membership, the US will agree to some Russian arms control proposals and the Russians will back down. Everyone will declare victory and go home.
posted by interogative mood at 6:44 PM on February 15, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 6:44 PM on February 15, 2022
If the US had said only Article 5, no NATO boots or hardware in Ukraine ever, even if they become a member, it's quite probable that all this goes away.
Not to dredge something up, but I was reminded that the US has actually offered Russia to pinky swear no permanent US deployments in Ukraine, if Russia will do the same.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:58 PM on February 15, 2022
Not to dredge something up, but I was reminded that the US has actually offered Russia to pinky swear no permanent US deployments in Ukraine, if Russia will do the same.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:58 PM on February 15, 2022
Meanwhile. the Russian deployment in Belarus is apparently causing huge problems for everyone there; the troops are behaving badly (stripping forests of firewood, drinking non-stop, stealing booze, killing and eating domestic animals, and selling equipment and weapons), their vehicles are damaging Belarus' roads, and on top of that, apparently the whole deployment has become a COVID superspreader event.
posted by acb at 7:59 AM on February 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:59 AM on February 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Well, if you're making them bivouac in an isolated part of the world, with shitty pay, with orders to prepare to advance through the Chernobyl radiologic reserve to become cannon fodder, you may induce some amounts of nihilistic behavior.
Robert Anton Wilson's law ("communication is impossible except between equals") is about to be proved all too well with Putin and his cadre, the way it was proved during the Chernobyl crisis.
posted by ocschwar at 12:27 PM on February 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Robert Anton Wilson's law ("communication is impossible except between equals") is about to be proved all too well with Putin and his cadre, the way it was proved during the Chernobyl crisis.
posted by ocschwar at 12:27 PM on February 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Authorities in the breakaway region of Donetsk have ordered a mass evacuation of civilians to Russia as they claim that Ukraine is planning a major offensive; this is something that Ukraine is strongly denying and many western observers are reporting as an attempt to create a justification for an invasion. Russia and Donetsk officials are preparing for up to 700,00 refugees.
I’m still betting against war but maybe that’s just stubbornly clinging to hope rather than reality.
posted by interogative mood at 4:12 PM on February 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I’m still betting against war but maybe that’s just stubbornly clinging to hope rather than reality.
posted by interogative mood at 4:12 PM on February 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Men of fighting age in Donetsk are being conscripted. Evactuations are only for the rest.
posted by ocschwar at 7:06 PM on February 18, 2022
posted by ocschwar at 7:06 PM on February 18, 2022
Meanwhile. the Russian deployment in Belarus is apparently causing huge problems for everyone there; the troops are behaving badly (stripping forests of firewood, drinking non-stop, stealing booze, killing and eating domestic animals, and selling equipment and weapons), their vehicles are damaging Belarus' roads, and on top of that, apparently the whole deployment has become a COVID superspreader event.
Not exactly a surprise. Someone wrote above about the Russian capacity for loss during previous wars, not least WWII. But that was then, this is now. Today, Russia can not loose 20 million people and just keep going.
All along, I've been thinking that this is an insane venture for the Russians. Ukraine is a huge country, and people there want their independence, if there is a war, they will be fighting for something, whereas the underpaid and undernourished Russian army will have no motivation at all. The West will provide weapons to the Ukrainians forever. Russia has a broken economy, a huge demographic challenge (read: significant lack of young men and women), and no relevant allies for this war of aggression. (Belarus, really?) A war in Ukraine will end any last hope for the Russian economy, just like the Afghanistan war broke the Sovjet Union. Wars enhance corruption, drug use, and black markets while they limit entrepreneurship and investments in civilian innovation.
All countries in the world need to adjust to climate change and in Russia, which depends on income from gas and has no great accumulated fortune, this is more pressing than in many other countries. Within a decade, as surrounding countries invest in sustainable energy, Russia will have no source of income and no plan B, but a constant war in Ukraine.
I suppose that the Russians are betting that Ukraine will let go of the two Eastern oblasts without a fight, as they did with Crimea, and that might well be what happens. A lot depends on how much the Ukrainians feel they can trust the Western powers, and that is a good question. I have no doubt that NATO will defend the NATO countries on the frontline. And NATO will most likely not send troops into Ukraine, but the arms and money are already arriving. My guess is that the Eastern NATO countries are taking this very seriously and putting a fair amount of pressure on the Western countries to do something.
A lot has been said about Russia's need for a buffer zone. But if Russia was a part of the international community, it wouldn't need a buffer. It would need open borders and trade and exchange of ideas.
posted by mumimor at 1:48 AM on February 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
Not exactly a surprise. Someone wrote above about the Russian capacity for loss during previous wars, not least WWII. But that was then, this is now. Today, Russia can not loose 20 million people and just keep going.
All along, I've been thinking that this is an insane venture for the Russians. Ukraine is a huge country, and people there want their independence, if there is a war, they will be fighting for something, whereas the underpaid and undernourished Russian army will have no motivation at all. The West will provide weapons to the Ukrainians forever. Russia has a broken economy, a huge demographic challenge (read: significant lack of young men and women), and no relevant allies for this war of aggression. (Belarus, really?) A war in Ukraine will end any last hope for the Russian economy, just like the Afghanistan war broke the Sovjet Union. Wars enhance corruption, drug use, and black markets while they limit entrepreneurship and investments in civilian innovation.
All countries in the world need to adjust to climate change and in Russia, which depends on income from gas and has no great accumulated fortune, this is more pressing than in many other countries. Within a decade, as surrounding countries invest in sustainable energy, Russia will have no source of income and no plan B, but a constant war in Ukraine.
I suppose that the Russians are betting that Ukraine will let go of the two Eastern oblasts without a fight, as they did with Crimea, and that might well be what happens. A lot depends on how much the Ukrainians feel they can trust the Western powers, and that is a good question. I have no doubt that NATO will defend the NATO countries on the frontline. And NATO will most likely not send troops into Ukraine, but the arms and money are already arriving. My guess is that the Eastern NATO countries are taking this very seriously and putting a fair amount of pressure on the Western countries to do something.
A lot has been said about Russia's need for a buffer zone. But if Russia was a part of the international community, it wouldn't need a buffer. It would need open borders and trade and exchange of ideas.
posted by mumimor at 1:48 AM on February 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
mumimor, I hope you're right.
I don't think this is about Donetsk/Lukhansk. I doubt Putin gives two kopecks about the Russian-speaking peoples of Eastern Ukraine to be governed by their rightful czar and not have Pride parades imposed on them by Brussels or whatever the usual rhetoric is. This is about the people of Russia: to demonstrate that there is no liberal-democratic alternative to what they have now, and instill a sense of learned hopelessness when it comes to the status quo. As such, Russia would need to either annex Ukraine and crush resistance, or just make enough of a mess of it that nobody will look to it as a model for generations. The latter seems all too feasible, even for a drunk, demoralised, COVID-ravaged soldiery.
Reportedly the Russians already have a kill list of prominent Ukrainians (including democracy activists and LGBT figures).
posted by acb at 2:59 AM on February 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't think this is about Donetsk/Lukhansk. I doubt Putin gives two kopecks about the Russian-speaking peoples of Eastern Ukraine to be governed by their rightful czar and not have Pride parades imposed on them by Brussels or whatever the usual rhetoric is. This is about the people of Russia: to demonstrate that there is no liberal-democratic alternative to what they have now, and instill a sense of learned hopelessness when it comes to the status quo. As such, Russia would need to either annex Ukraine and crush resistance, or just make enough of a mess of it that nobody will look to it as a model for generations. The latter seems all too feasible, even for a drunk, demoralised, COVID-ravaged soldiery.
Reportedly the Russians already have a kill list of prominent Ukrainians (including democracy activists and LGBT figures).
posted by acb at 2:59 AM on February 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I found this interesting: Why most Ukrainians don’t believe Biden’s warnings, distrust West (Mansur Mirovalev, Al Jazeera, 21 Feb 2022)
Only 20.4 percent of Ukrainians believe that a “full-scale invasion” will happen soon, and only 4.4 percent are adamant it is “definitely” taking place, according to a survey by the Gorshenin Institute, an independent pollster, conducted between February 2 and 14.posted by Not A Thing at 9:28 AM on February 21, 2022
A staggering 62.5 percent think the invasion is not going to happen “in the nearest future”.
Instead, some Ukrainians such as Afenkina contend that their ex-Soviet nation of 44 million is but a pawn in the geopolitical games in the US, a useful tool to consolidate support and gain votes.
Not exactly a surprise. Someone wrote above about the Russian capacity for loss during previous wars, not least WWII. But that was then, this is now. Today, Russia can not loose 20 million people and just keep going.
So the reports of Russians soldiers scavenging for firewood (and meat!) in Belarus prompted me to reconsider the state of a Russian Federation that can't support its own invasion force.
1. The World Bank estimates their GDP per capita at $10,126. This puts them on par with China, except, China has been growing and continues to grow, while Russia is down 50% from 2013 highs. (Ukraine sits at $3,724) I had assumed by shedding the communist party they were well along the path to Western standards of living, but that seems to have stalled out a decade ago.
2. The population of the Russian Federation is (via world bank) 144 million, half the U.S. pop.
3. The CIA World Factbook suggests Russia has about 375,000 soldiers ("Ground Troops"). In that context, 100k is a big "training exercise."
posted by pwnguin at 9:57 AM on February 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
So the reports of Russians soldiers scavenging for firewood (and meat!) in Belarus prompted me to reconsider the state of a Russian Federation that can't support its own invasion force.
1. The World Bank estimates their GDP per capita at $10,126. This puts them on par with China, except, China has been growing and continues to grow, while Russia is down 50% from 2013 highs. (Ukraine sits at $3,724) I had assumed by shedding the communist party they were well along the path to Western standards of living, but that seems to have stalled out a decade ago.
2. The population of the Russian Federation is (via world bank) 144 million, half the U.S. pop.
3. The CIA World Factbook suggests Russia has about 375,000 soldiers ("Ground Troops"). In that context, 100k is a big "training exercise."
posted by pwnguin at 9:57 AM on February 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Based on that unhinged rant by Putin it's been a real bad day for the "Russia has legitimate concerns about NATO!" crowd here. And the world, of course. Can't forget it's been a bad day for the world.
posted by Justinian at 11:48 AM on February 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:48 AM on February 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
And so it starts.
posted by UN at 1:56 PM on February 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 1:56 PM on February 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
I just got through talking with Lenny Bruce and he said, I don't know about you but I'm scared.
posted by interogative mood at 2:33 PM on February 21, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 2:33 PM on February 21, 2022
Well, this is it isn't it?
My thoughts go out to the people in the region. Any wishes/hopes/prayers I want to share seem hollow. Words are not enough.
posted by Kosmob0t at 2:52 PM on February 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
My thoughts go out to the people in the region. Any wishes/hopes/prayers I want to share seem hollow. Words are not enough.
posted by Kosmob0t at 2:52 PM on February 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
It is it. My family fled Ukraine the last time the Russians invaded (1920's). I'm unsurprised, but sad. So so so sad.
posted by larthegreat at 3:08 PM on February 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by larthegreat at 3:08 PM on February 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I found this interesting: [...]
I’m not sure how the linked article can be interpreted as anything but part of an information warfare campaign. Now that the invasion has begun, I suppose it can be moved from "fake news" to just plain "old news".
Based on that unhinged rant by Putin it's been a real bad day for the "Russia has legitimate concerns about NATO!" crowd here.
They’re on holiday now, I suppose.
posted by UN at 6:51 AM on February 22, 2022
I’m not sure how the linked article can be interpreted as anything but part of an information warfare campaign. Now that the invasion has begun, I suppose it can be moved from "fake news" to just plain "old news".
Based on that unhinged rant by Putin it's been a real bad day for the "Russia has legitimate concerns about NATO!" crowd here.
They’re on holiday now, I suppose.
posted by UN at 6:51 AM on February 22, 2022
I imagine there's a good chance for Britain to prosper from helping undermine EU sanctions against Putin's oligarchs various Surrey country squires whom it is Russophobic, if not libelious, to call oligarchs just because they made their fortune in the aftermath of the fall of the USSR. The sanctions could be a good chance to recover from some of the self-inflicted economic damage of Brexit, whilst also sticking it to Jacques, Fritz and the other vino-drinkers across the Channel.
posted by acb at 6:57 AM on February 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 6:57 AM on February 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
information warfare campaign [...]"fake news"
I invite you to peruse the author's Twitter timeline and explain why one story that makes you vaguely uncomfortable means they are an agent of Russian "information warfare."
Actually it's all pretty great reporting so I'll just link some of them:
Now that the invasion has begun,
As of the timestamp of this comment, what has happened is a rebadging of the 8-year Russian military occupation of Donbas from an implausibly-deniable one to an open one. Which I think goes to why many Ukrainians would reasonably consider the US et al. to be full of shit on this topic. Why pretend to care now?
posted by Not A Thing at 8:06 AM on February 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
I invite you to peruse the author's Twitter timeline and explain why one story that makes you vaguely uncomfortable means they are an agent of Russian "information warfare."
Actually it's all pretty great reporting so I'll just link some of them:
- ‘We’ll fight for Kyiv’: Ukrainian civilians train to repel Russia: Dismissed as ‘militants’ by Russian officials, Ukrainians from a range of backgrounds are spending their spare time preparing for war.
- In Russia, Indigenous land defenders face intimidation and exile
- My Great-Grandpa’s Execution and Putin’s Attempt to Erase the Stalinist Past
Now that the invasion has begun,
As of the timestamp of this comment, what has happened is a rebadging of the 8-year Russian military occupation of Donbas from an implausibly-deniable one to an open one. Which I think goes to why many Ukrainians would reasonably consider the US et al. to be full of shit on this topic. Why pretend to care now?
posted by Not A Thing at 8:06 AM on February 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
I invite you to peruse the author's Twitter timeline
Why? That's not the link you posted earlier.
explain why one story that makes you vaguely uncomfortable
Why would it make me uncomfortable?
Why pretend to care now?
Who are you referring to? This has been an ongoing topic for years in Europe.
posted by UN at 10:12 AM on February 22, 2022
Why? That's not the link you posted earlier.
explain why one story that makes you vaguely uncomfortable
Why would it make me uncomfortable?
Why pretend to care now?
Who are you referring to? This has been an ongoing topic for years in Europe.
posted by UN at 10:12 AM on February 22, 2022
TIL that the sanctions from 2014 have helped Russia consolidate their economy, so they are no longer dependent on foreign loans, investments or products. All at the expense of the vast majority of Russians who struggle with inflation and a standard of living that is only 30% over that of the Sovjet days.
And because of the high fuel prices, the Russian state and the oligarchs are filling their coffers right now. Oh well.
Putin and his thugs can keep going for a long while without popular support, because there is no real opposition. Probably because you will find yourself drinking polonium tea if you oppose him.
I also learnt that short of annexing Ukraine, the Russian strategy is most likely to keep the situation open-ended as long as possible because Ukraine without control of clearly defined borders cannot be accepted into NATO or the EU.
It seems that while Ukrainians are angry about Putins rant, they aren't ready to be scared just yet (unless they live in the Northern part of Lugansk). And they are happy about the sanctions, specially that the Germans have stopped progress on Northstream 2.
(I was listening to a panel of experts while driving, so couldn't take notes).
It is scary, because Putin seems so unhinged. If there is an all out war, there is no doubt that the Baltic Sea will be a battleground. But even during this afternoon, it seemed that Putin took note of the very mild Chinese condemnation. Like I suggested above: the biggest problem for Russia (apart from not being able to uphold an army), is that they have no allies.
posted by mumimor at 10:43 AM on February 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
And because of the high fuel prices, the Russian state and the oligarchs are filling their coffers right now. Oh well.
Putin and his thugs can keep going for a long while without popular support, because there is no real opposition. Probably because you will find yourself drinking polonium tea if you oppose him.
I also learnt that short of annexing Ukraine, the Russian strategy is most likely to keep the situation open-ended as long as possible because Ukraine without control of clearly defined borders cannot be accepted into NATO or the EU.
It seems that while Ukrainians are angry about Putins rant, they aren't ready to be scared just yet (unless they live in the Northern part of Lugansk). And they are happy about the sanctions, specially that the Germans have stopped progress on Northstream 2.
(I was listening to a panel of experts while driving, so couldn't take notes).
It is scary, because Putin seems so unhinged. If there is an all out war, there is no doubt that the Baltic Sea will be a battleground. But even during this afternoon, it seemed that Putin took note of the very mild Chinese condemnation. Like I suggested above: the biggest problem for Russia (apart from not being able to uphold an army), is that they have no allies.
posted by mumimor at 10:43 AM on February 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
It is interesting to see what China will do: throw its lot in with Putin (as some CCP hardliners are pushing for), condemn Russia's violation of international law in an attempt to salvage ties with the US, vaciliate as long as possible, or use the fact that the world's attention is on Ukraine to swiftly seize Taiwan.
posted by acb at 11:12 AM on February 22, 2022
posted by acb at 11:12 AM on February 22, 2022
use the fact that the world's attention is on Ukraine to swiftly seize Taiwan.
That is basically the WW3 scenario. With maybe Iran pulling some stunt, or maybe Israel acting against them aggressively before any stunt can be pulled.
posted by pwnguin at 11:52 AM on February 22, 2022
That is basically the WW3 scenario. With maybe Iran pulling some stunt, or maybe Israel acting against them aggressively before any stunt can be pulled.
posted by pwnguin at 11:52 AM on February 22, 2022
More importantly for China regarding Taiwan is the fact that if another country can declare a breakaway province a new country; then the west could do that for Taiwan.
From a strategic perspective I think China will hedge their bets, but quietly use Russia’s further isolation to secure more Russian natural resources at discounted prices.
posted by interogative mood at 12:21 PM on February 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
From a strategic perspective I think China will hedge their bets, but quietly use Russia’s further isolation to secure more Russian natural resources at discounted prices.
posted by interogative mood at 12:21 PM on February 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
The UK's new sanctions are against five small, obscure banks, most of which were already under sanctions from the US. It is as if they were designed as a feint, the toughest talk a Kremlin-owned post-Brexit Conservative Party could muster without actually adversely affecting its donors.
Perhaps there will be more sanctions, which will take more of a bite. And perhaps Britain will freeze the assets of the Kremlin henchmen who reinvented themselves as dzentelmeni of Londongrad. Though they would be under a lot of pressure, overt and covert, not to. Putin-linked oligarchs have funnelled a lot of money into London and into the Tories, and have funded Brexit and the subsequent culture war. And conveniently enough, while Britain has the means to clamp down hard on the assets of listed individuals, it also has a rich history of providing ample loopholes for the powerful (see also: the world's longest tax code), and can claim that it is impossible to really know who actually owns the penthouse apartment that nominally belongs to a complex ownership structure in St. Kitts and Nevis or somewhere.
And when the Ukraine situation is no longer in the headlines but the EU is keeping the sanctions pressure on, it would be tempting for the UK, whilst maintaining that there's nobody who's tougher on Russia, to leverage some of its world-class financial secrecy to make a nice little mint filling a need (and helping out some old chums). After all, the EU are bitter adversaries who compromised the integrity of the UK by refusing to allow it to jockey the Republic of Ireland out of the Customs Union, while the nice gents who have a teeny tiny cashflow problem they need help with are chums, squash partners and/or neighbours.
posted by acb at 1:23 PM on February 22, 2022
Perhaps there will be more sanctions, which will take more of a bite. And perhaps Britain will freeze the assets of the Kremlin henchmen who reinvented themselves as dzentelmeni of Londongrad. Though they would be under a lot of pressure, overt and covert, not to. Putin-linked oligarchs have funnelled a lot of money into London and into the Tories, and have funded Brexit and the subsequent culture war. And conveniently enough, while Britain has the means to clamp down hard on the assets of listed individuals, it also has a rich history of providing ample loopholes for the powerful (see also: the world's longest tax code), and can claim that it is impossible to really know who actually owns the penthouse apartment that nominally belongs to a complex ownership structure in St. Kitts and Nevis or somewhere.
And when the Ukraine situation is no longer in the headlines but the EU is keeping the sanctions pressure on, it would be tempting for the UK, whilst maintaining that there's nobody who's tougher on Russia, to leverage some of its world-class financial secrecy to make a nice little mint filling a need (and helping out some old chums). After all, the EU are bitter adversaries who compromised the integrity of the UK by refusing to allow it to jockey the Republic of Ireland out of the Customs Union, while the nice gents who have a teeny tiny cashflow problem they need help with are chums, squash partners and/or neighbours.
posted by acb at 1:23 PM on February 22, 2022
I think the West’s strategy right now is to use some limited sanctions as a warning shot. At this point Russia has only recognized existing facts on the ground, making official what had long been unofficial. Russia has has troops in these areas and Russia has treated them as independent counties.
The UK situation of Russian billionaires is just another facet of the overall difficulty getting the EU member states to implement strong sanctions — there is a tangle of political and economic interests that are affected by sanctions.
So this drives a strategy where the threat of sanctions is stronger than the execution and by escalating the sanctions over time you allow for some kind of more orderly exit from Russia to limit the economic pain.
posted by interogative mood at 1:57 PM on February 22, 2022
The UK situation of Russian billionaires is just another facet of the overall difficulty getting the EU member states to implement strong sanctions — there is a tangle of political and economic interests that are affected by sanctions.
So this drives a strategy where the threat of sanctions is stronger than the execution and by escalating the sanctions over time you allow for some kind of more orderly exit from Russia to limit the economic pain.
posted by interogative mood at 1:57 PM on February 22, 2022
Adam Something has a new video up with his speculation about what will happen next.
posted by interogative mood at 2:59 PM on February 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 2:59 PM on February 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
i don't think they're going to invade - they're just going to let the u s look stupid by proclaiming an invasion is going to happen
posted by pyramid termite at 20:29 on February 11 [1 favorite +] [!]
I wish you were right. I thought the same thing.
posted by mecran01 at 7:18 AM on February 26, 2022
posted by pyramid termite at 20:29 on February 11 [1 favorite +] [!]
I wish you were right. I thought the same thing.
posted by mecran01 at 7:18 AM on February 26, 2022
well, i was not only wrong about that, i was wrong about putin being intelligent
i can't imagine how he thought that there could be any positive outcome for russia in the long run - and clearly, all the talk about being threatened by nato being so close means nothing if you're going to be this antagonistic towards your neighbors
he's pretty much guaranteed the existence of nato for decades now
posted by pyramid termite at 1:07 PM on February 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
i can't imagine how he thought that there could be any positive outcome for russia in the long run - and clearly, all the talk about being threatened by nato being so close means nothing if you're going to be this antagonistic towards your neighbors
he's pretty much guaranteed the existence of nato for decades now
posted by pyramid termite at 1:07 PM on February 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
Idk pyramid termite it might be that the EU feels a lot less worried about Russia with how badly it’s going for Russia. Russia might simply collapse with this.
posted by interogative mood at 7:17 PM on February 26, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 7:17 PM on February 26, 2022
Idk pyramid termite it might be that the EU feels a lot less worried about Russia with how badly it’s going for Russia. Russia might simply collapse with this.
We are less than 4 days into this offensive. Russian troops are deep inside Ukrainian territory on multiple fronts. Ukrainians have been fighting bravely and seem to have thwarted the decapitating strike the Russians were trying for. But it's an uphill battle for them, and even if they hold on for another two weeks or two months this stage won't matter in the assessment.
I very much want Russia to fail, but it's a bit early to calling this a defeat, let alone a nation shattering one.
posted by mark k at 9:17 PM on February 26, 2022
We are less than 4 days into this offensive. Russian troops are deep inside Ukrainian territory on multiple fronts. Ukrainians have been fighting bravely and seem to have thwarted the decapitating strike the Russians were trying for. But it's an uphill battle for them, and even if they hold on for another two weeks or two months this stage won't matter in the assessment.
I very much want Russia to fail, but it's a bit early to calling this a defeat, let alone a nation shattering one.
posted by mark k at 9:17 PM on February 26, 2022
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