"This was hardly an isolated development."
March 6, 2022 1:57 AM Subscribe
The Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Wendover Productions takes a detailed look into the logistical failures of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Aw, you beat me, was about to post a link to this in one of the threads.
TL;DW = Russia doesn't have enough trucks.
posted by bartleby at 3:28 AM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
TL;DW = Russia doesn't have enough trucks.
posted by bartleby at 3:28 AM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Infantry win battles, logistics wins wars.
Thanks for this.
posted by adamvasco at 4:07 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Thanks for this.
posted by adamvasco at 4:07 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wish I could feel heartened but it's hard to believe Russia will just give up their invasion if things don’t go perfectly from the outset. It took decades, but Russian propaganda into (for instance) Canadian society has penetrated pretty fucking deep. The more-than-fringe support for the Freedum convoy has made it clear that a significant number of truck/Trump-loving covidiots will not stand for any rise in gas prices. They'll take it as a declaration of war on their tribal identity. No facts, no sense of shared interest or duty will shift them into supporting sustained sanctions on Russian oil. They've aligned themselves with Putin, even as they wave the maple leaf. Feels like the Achilles’ heel of Democracy.
I really hope I'm wrong and somebody pops Putin off during the Ides of March.
posted by brachiopod at 5:25 AM on March 6, 2022 [38 favorites]
I really hope I'm wrong and somebody pops Putin off during the Ides of March.
posted by brachiopod at 5:25 AM on March 6, 2022 [38 favorites]
I think it would be foolish to underestimate Russia.
posted by haptic_avenger at 5:33 AM on March 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by haptic_avenger at 5:33 AM on March 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
I found the part about the pipeline units interesting. Never occurred to me that that would be a thing. Anyone know if other militaries have those sorts of units?
posted by Mitheral at 6:11 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 6:11 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I really hope I'm wrong and somebody pops Putin off during the Ides of March.
Beware what you wish for. As bad as Putin is, his suddenly getting iced could easily throw this mess into exactly the level we’re all praying it doesn’t go.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:16 AM on March 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
Beware what you wish for. As bad as Putin is, his suddenly getting iced could easily throw this mess into exactly the level we’re all praying it doesn’t go.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:16 AM on March 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
Beware what you wish for. As bad as Putin is, his suddenly getting iced could easily throw this mess into exactly the level we’re all praying it doesn’t go.
I've seen this written before - it didn't make sense then and it doesn't make sense now. I don't even know what you are tying to hypothesize here? If, for example, the assassination attempts on Hitler hadn't failed we would somehow have been worse off? Or why would this be different for Putin?
posted by patrick54 at 6:29 AM on March 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
I've seen this written before - it didn't make sense then and it doesn't make sense now. I don't even know what you are tying to hypothesize here? If, for example, the assassination attempts on Hitler hadn't failed we would somehow have been worse off? Or why would this be different for Putin?
posted by patrick54 at 6:29 AM on March 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
yeah, if Hitler's arc is any guide (and it is IMV ) Putin involuntarily leaving the Kremlin is the only way out of this horror.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 6:30 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 6:30 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Beware what you wish for.
True. I was trying to add something “hopeful” as the edit window was closing and could’ve chosen better….but it feels like Trump and his dirtbags are still all-in on “Putin is a genius” and a Putin ™ victory will be affirmation of the GQP/Freedum crowd's faith in strong-man leadership.
posted by brachiopod at 6:35 AM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
True. I was trying to add something “hopeful” as the edit window was closing and could’ve chosen better….but it feels like Trump and his dirtbags are still all-in on “Putin is a genius” and a Putin ™ victory will be affirmation of the GQP/Freedum crowd's faith in strong-man leadership.
posted by brachiopod at 6:35 AM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Infantry win battles, logistics wins wars.
I keep seeing high-minded commentary like this juxtaposed with videos of Russian soldiers talking about how they were piled into trucks at four in the morning, told it was all an exercise and didn't even realize they were going to a war, videos of farmers towing abandoned tanks and mobile artillery off to wherever with tractors. It's impossible to reconcile these notions of grand strategy with 20-year-old tiktokers teaching each other how to drive off in the tanks and armored personnel carriers that soldiers have left at the side of the road.
There is no path to anything that anyone could call a victory for Russia here. None. The only questions left are how many people are going to die before this absurd, tragic, utterly unnecessary meat grinder stops churning, and the awful thing about that is that most of that decision is in the hands of the people who started the war in the first place, and can't afford to lose it.
posted by mhoye at 6:38 AM on March 6, 2022 [60 favorites]
I keep seeing high-minded commentary like this juxtaposed with videos of Russian soldiers talking about how they were piled into trucks at four in the morning, told it was all an exercise and didn't even realize they were going to a war, videos of farmers towing abandoned tanks and mobile artillery off to wherever with tractors. It's impossible to reconcile these notions of grand strategy with 20-year-old tiktokers teaching each other how to drive off in the tanks and armored personnel carriers that soldiers have left at the side of the road.
There is no path to anything that anyone could call a victory for Russia here. None. The only questions left are how many people are going to die before this absurd, tragic, utterly unnecessary meat grinder stops churning, and the awful thing about that is that most of that decision is in the hands of the people who started the war in the first place, and can't afford to lose it.
posted by mhoye at 6:38 AM on March 6, 2022 [60 favorites]
I've seen this written before - it didn't make sense then and it doesn't make sense now.
I’m not sure how old you are, but the fall of the soviet union was pretty terrifying. Authoritarian regimes rarely have a clear line of succession, just more strongmen vying for their opportunity to gain power, or wealth, or allegiances. There were months (years??) when we didn’t know where all of the nuclear material the USSR had created was.
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [36 favorites]
I’m not sure how old you are, but the fall of the soviet union was pretty terrifying. Authoritarian regimes rarely have a clear line of succession, just more strongmen vying for their opportunity to gain power, or wealth, or allegiances. There were months (years??) when we didn’t know where all of the nuclear material the USSR had created was.
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [36 favorites]
...Authoritarian regimes rarely have a clear line of succession, just more strongmen vying for their opportunity to gain power...
Yes, but that's not worse than the actual war in Ukraine continued.
posted by patrick54 at 6:52 AM on March 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
Yes, but that's not worse than the actual war in Ukraine continued.
posted by patrick54 at 6:52 AM on March 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
You could argue that Hitler not being assassinated shortened the war because he made decisions (no retreat!) based on ideology, not what made the most military sense (withdraw to better defensive positions, e.g.).
posted by Bee'sWing at 6:56 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 6:56 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Why are you certain that Putin's death means the end of the war in Ukraine?
What if Putin's assassination actually galvanizes Russian support for the war, not just against Ukraine, but against the West in general?
Put it another way: If George W Bush were assassinated in 2005 and there was any way that it could be painted as being carried out by Muslim extremists, how well do you think it would have gone for the people of Afghanistan and Iraq, if not the entire Middle East?
posted by LionIndex at 6:59 AM on March 6, 2022 [35 favorites]
What if Putin's assassination actually galvanizes Russian support for the war, not just against Ukraine, but against the West in general?
Put it another way: If George W Bush were assassinated in 2005 and there was any way that it could be painted as being carried out by Muslim extremists, how well do you think it would have gone for the people of Afghanistan and Iraq, if not the entire Middle East?
posted by LionIndex at 6:59 AM on March 6, 2022 [35 favorites]
Yes, but that's not worse than the actual war in Ukraine continued.
Why on earth do you believe the next person in line would cease hostilities in Ukraine?
And yes, unsecured and unmonitored nuclear armaments in the hands of people who are looking to gain quick legitimacy or quick cash and allegiances is much, much worse. Probably for Ukraine in particular.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:02 AM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Why on earth do you believe the next person in line would cease hostilities in Ukraine?
And yes, unsecured and unmonitored nuclear armaments in the hands of people who are looking to gain quick legitimacy or quick cash and allegiances is much, much worse. Probably for Ukraine in particular.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:02 AM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Why are you certain that Putin's death means the end of the war in Ukraine?
That ridiculously long table, that obviously greenscreen nonsense with the flight attendants, the huge distance between him and any of his advisors whenever he's in a meeting, clumsily edited to make it look like they're sitting near each other.
posted by mhoye at 7:05 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
That ridiculously long table, that obviously greenscreen nonsense with the flight attendants, the huge distance between him and any of his advisors whenever he's in a meeting, clumsily edited to make it look like they're sitting near each other.
posted by mhoye at 7:05 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
From another age and overextended emperor, Lessons From ‘Losses From the Russian Campaign’ – Joseph Charles Minard’s 1869 ‘Carte figurative des pertes successives en hommes de l’Armée Française dans la campagne de Russie 1812-1813.’ at The Art of Consequences by Sarah Grace.
posted by cenoxo at 7:06 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by cenoxo at 7:06 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
From this video, it's more clear to me that Russia couldn't do much without Belarus
posted by eustatic at 7:13 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by eustatic at 7:13 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
That ridiculously long table, that obviously greenscreen
Citation, please? Is this assertion supported elsewhere?
nonsense with the flight attendants, the huge distance between him and any of his advisors whenever he's in a meeting, clumsily edited
Citation, please? Do you have reliable corroborations for these assertions?
to make it look like they're sitting near each other.
This is a laundry list of…. something. Please tell me how any of these create a logical basis for believing that Putin’s death means an end to the war in Ukraine.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:16 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
Citation, please? Is this assertion supported elsewhere?
nonsense with the flight attendants, the huge distance between him and any of his advisors whenever he's in a meeting, clumsily edited
Citation, please? Do you have reliable corroborations for these assertions?
to make it look like they're sitting near each other.
This is a laundry list of…. something. Please tell me how any of these create a logical basis for believing that Putin’s death means an end to the war in Ukraine.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:16 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
That "green screen" was reported by the top minds of... Reddit. It was later taken down and flagged as misinformation. It's just an artifact of compression for low resolution video.
I'm sure the invasion is being reported on very favorably in Russia, and they're all being told that the troops will be home by Christmas. But we can't forget that we too are being targeted by propaganda. "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" and the Ghost of Kyiv and this video are all telling a narrative, and whether that narrative is true or not won't be determined until it's all hindsight. And then it'll be declared obvious and inevitable.
As the Garfield meme says,"You are not immune to propaganda."
posted by AlSweigart at 7:18 AM on March 6, 2022 [46 favorites]
I'm sure the invasion is being reported on very favorably in Russia, and they're all being told that the troops will be home by Christmas. But we can't forget that we too are being targeted by propaganda. "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" and the Ghost of Kyiv and this video are all telling a narrative, and whether that narrative is true or not won't be determined until it's all hindsight. And then it'll be declared obvious and inevitable.
As the Garfield meme says,"You are not immune to propaganda."
posted by AlSweigart at 7:18 AM on March 6, 2022 [46 favorites]
From this video, it's more clear to me that Russia couldn't do much without Belarus
Lukashenko has literally recently asked Putin to promote him in a no longer existent armed forces. Putin has recently kept him in power and is more or less occupying Belarus. It is, absent really massive developments, very much dependable.
posted by jaduncan at 7:21 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Lukashenko has literally recently asked Putin to promote him in a no longer existent armed forces. Putin has recently kept him in power and is more or less occupying Belarus. It is, absent really massive developments, very much dependable.
posted by jaduncan at 7:21 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
The video was interesting, thank you for posting.
The speculation in some comments above about Putin's demise seems like a distraction -- the FPP is focused specifically on the logistical challenges that have become apparent. Those wouldn't go away if there was a change in leadership.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:30 AM on March 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
The speculation in some comments above about Putin's demise seems like a distraction -- the FPP is focused specifically on the logistical challenges that have become apparent. Those wouldn't go away if there was a change in leadership.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:30 AM on March 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
While I agree that the discussion about Putin is a bit of a derail, it does make sense to think that a younger leadership, with less nostalgia for the Soviet Union, might decide to cut their losses and move focus to other aspects of society.
What I took from the video, and also the one posted by Bee'sWing, is that Russia is betting all they've got on this. Which is really weird. They must have been very certain beforehand that Ukraine and all of us would just accept the Russian annexation within days. With so many troupes centered on Ukraine, they have no proper defence (apart from the threat of nuclear weapons) if for some reason NATO chooses to go in. Or if some of the other zones of unrest within and on the borders break out.
Apart from Infantry win battles, logistics wins wars., there is also the fact that good intelligence is crucial, and hard to get, if you are an empire.
posted by mumimor at 7:54 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
What I took from the video, and also the one posted by Bee'sWing, is that Russia is betting all they've got on this. Which is really weird. They must have been very certain beforehand that Ukraine and all of us would just accept the Russian annexation within days. With so many troupes centered on Ukraine, they have no proper defence (apart from the threat of nuclear weapons) if for some reason NATO chooses to go in. Or if some of the other zones of unrest within and on the borders break out.
Apart from Infantry win battles, logistics wins wars., there is also the fact that good intelligence is crucial, and hard to get, if you are an empire.
posted by mumimor at 7:54 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think it's become abundantly clear that the invasion has not taken the course intended by Putin and his leadership, and it's also clear that the cost (as measured along just about any axis you wish) is vastly higher than expected.
The logistics are a shambles, and the supply lines and organization isn't up to what would have been necessary to swiftly execute the invasion.
But also, it's not like the supplies needed simply don't exist. Russia may have a lot of time to address the logistics problem, and so long as they can pay for it, it'll catch up eventually.
It's a promising sign that despite long odds, Ukraine has thus far fared much, much better than I would have ever hoped, but that might not last. I only hope that the economic and diplomatic punishment being doled out on Russia will either prevent the Russian military from being able to afford to fix its logistics and/or build the internal will one way or another to withdraw.
posted by tclark at 8:03 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
The logistics are a shambles, and the supply lines and organization isn't up to what would have been necessary to swiftly execute the invasion.
But also, it's not like the supplies needed simply don't exist. Russia may have a lot of time to address the logistics problem, and so long as they can pay for it, it'll catch up eventually.
It's a promising sign that despite long odds, Ukraine has thus far fared much, much better than I would have ever hoped, but that might not last. I only hope that the economic and diplomatic punishment being doled out on Russia will either prevent the Russian military from being able to afford to fix its logistics and/or build the internal will one way or another to withdraw.
posted by tclark at 8:03 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
METAFILTER: reported by the top minds of... Reddit
posted by philip-random at 8:24 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by philip-random at 8:24 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Bad logistics is pretty much a constant in Russian military history, as is failing in all the initial engagements, until the overwhelming numbers wear their enemy down
posted by Jon_Evil at 9:15 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 9:15 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Count me as hopeful for Ukraine but not optimistic. Time will keep stretching on and on and the death toll will rise. This is entirely grim, regardless of the variations on the "Ukrainian Granny Knocks Russian Drone out of the Air with a Jar of Pickles!" stories I see floating around. I know hope needs to be kept alive, but it's way too early to make much of any kinds of predictions.
posted by SoberHighland at 9:19 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by SoberHighland at 9:19 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
I don’t think it is quite clear that Putin expected a cakewalk or logistics are an issue. I think the strong reaction by the west and the sanctions caught him off guard. He’s still winning the numbers battles on tanks and artillery destroyed and I haven’t seen javelins or stringers as effective though it appears his solution to that is to use long range artillery to indiscriminately mortar cities.
posted by geoff. at 9:38 AM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by geoff. at 9:38 AM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Every analysis I read in the lead up to the conflict agreed on two things a) the decision to invade Ukraine was 100% Putin's and b) the major motivating factor was establishing his legacy as bringing Ukraine back into Russia.
I think Putin being removed is pretty unlikely, but if it did happen it seems reasonable that whoever replaced him would be more motivated to end the war.
posted by justkevin at 9:41 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
I think Putin being removed is pretty unlikely, but if it did happen it seems reasonable that whoever replaced him would be more motivated to end the war.
posted by justkevin at 9:41 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
If you look at what the Russian military has accomplished over the last week, those predictions and odds on how long Ukraine could possibly hold them off were obviously based on Russia's military being somewhat competent and that all the assets listed would be functioning. They aren't and they're not.
Appropriate time to dust off an old favorite:
Amateurs worry about strategy.
Dilettantes worry about tactics.
Professionals worry about logistics.
posted by Sphinx at 9:57 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Appropriate time to dust off an old favorite:
Amateurs worry about strategy.
Dilettantes worry about tactics.
Professionals worry about logistics.
posted by Sphinx at 9:57 AM on March 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Clear picture of war in Ukraine clouded by large areas of unknowns - Analysis: lack of reliable information has made it hard to assess the Russian military’s successes and failures, The Guardian, Peter Beaumont in Lviv, Sun 6 Mar 2022:
In conflict, where information is everything, what is striking about the war in Ukraine is not what is known but the very large areas of unknowns.posted by cenoxo at 10:02 AM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
And even as commentators have picked over and analysed everything that is known about the Russian military’s operations and performance in Ukraine in an effort to predict the trajectory of the conflict, it’s what is poorly understood that may yet be more significant still.
One issue that has come under the spotlight is the rate of loses of soldiers and equipment on the Russian side in the week and a half so far of fighting. In that period, images of dead and captured Russian soldiers and destroyed or abandoned equipment have become commonplace as it has become clear that Russian forces have lost everything from aircraft to main battle tanks and even whole convoys.
But attrition is not a one way street, and what is far less clear is the level of losses sustained by Ukrainian forces, with no equivalent social media avalanche from the Russian side parading this, and Ukraine understandably not wanting to advertise its losses….
> a) the decision to invade Ukraine was 100% Putin's and
I often wonder how much of Russia's rule is by Putin alone, and how much of that is a figurehead/Great Man narrative being an easier story to report on.
I keep hearing about Russia's oligarchy (which I believe is a Russian word for what we call "billionaires" in English), but I can't name any of the oligarchs off the top of my head besides Putin.
posted by AlSweigart at 10:05 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I often wonder how much of Russia's rule is by Putin alone, and how much of that is a figurehead/Great Man narrative being an easier story to report on.
I keep hearing about Russia's oligarchy (which I believe is a Russian word for what we call "billionaires" in English), but I can't name any of the oligarchs off the top of my head besides Putin.
posted by AlSweigart at 10:05 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I posted an AskMe question about scenarios in which Putin is removed from power, if folks are looking for a different place to have that conversation.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 10:19 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Gerald Bostock at 10:19 AM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
Putin's plan, as a plan, wasn't terrible strategy. (The ethics, morality and legality are all atrocious, being both unprovoked and utterly unjustified mass murder and war crimes.)
Two main goals that I think he was going for, with the super fast strikes. A, he successfully takes Kyiv, and installed a group of politicians loyal to him, perhaps with a 'peacekeeping force' in place to ensure they stay in power and continue to do what he wants. This basically gets him the whole country if he can decapitate all the legitimate, elected leadership and turn Ukraine into a puppet state or something like Belarus where they do what he wants.
B, capture enough land on the coast and hold it, that when a ceasefire happens he can claim it, demand it legally becomes Russian territory. If Kiyv is faced with little external support and the option of turning over Donetsk and Luhansk or enduring a brutal war of oppression where civilians are freely targeted (See other recent Russian atrocities in places like Syria) what are they likely to choose? Especially if their military has proven largely ineffective in that situation?
And really, if the strategic strike worked, if there was basically no organized Ukraine military resistance today, and Putin had control over the government bodies of Ukraine? What would the USA do? How would the rest of the world react? Maybe condemnation and sanctions, sure. We certainly aren't going to start a war. I can see how the calculations of getting eastern Ukraine make sense. A quick 'special military operation' in exchange for a stretch of land connecting say, Crimea, Odessa, and Kharkiv to Russia, perhaps legally (though again, under duress and blatant war crimes, unjust war and murder of civilians) might well be worth it. How long till the world returns to business as usual? The world largely shrugged off Georgia, Crimea and Syria.
That said, the strike clearly didn't go as planned. Putin tried to keep the military force used small and contained, to maintain the pretense that they weren't blatantly invading sovereign territory. The secrecy and perhaps paranoia behind the attack led to poor Russian planning, organizing and goal setting. Coordination is bad. The Ukraine military and civilian population didn't collapse at all. This isn't a repeat of the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan, this isn't a lightning decapitation strike. This has turned into a disaster, with heavier than expected sanctions, and Russia is reverting to their usual brute force tactics of murdering civilians and destroying basic infrastructure.
posted by Jacen at 10:28 AM on March 6, 2022 [14 favorites]
Two main goals that I think he was going for, with the super fast strikes. A, he successfully takes Kyiv, and installed a group of politicians loyal to him, perhaps with a 'peacekeeping force' in place to ensure they stay in power and continue to do what he wants. This basically gets him the whole country if he can decapitate all the legitimate, elected leadership and turn Ukraine into a puppet state or something like Belarus where they do what he wants.
B, capture enough land on the coast and hold it, that when a ceasefire happens he can claim it, demand it legally becomes Russian territory. If Kiyv is faced with little external support and the option of turning over Donetsk and Luhansk or enduring a brutal war of oppression where civilians are freely targeted (See other recent Russian atrocities in places like Syria) what are they likely to choose? Especially if their military has proven largely ineffective in that situation?
And really, if the strategic strike worked, if there was basically no organized Ukraine military resistance today, and Putin had control over the government bodies of Ukraine? What would the USA do? How would the rest of the world react? Maybe condemnation and sanctions, sure. We certainly aren't going to start a war. I can see how the calculations of getting eastern Ukraine make sense. A quick 'special military operation' in exchange for a stretch of land connecting say, Crimea, Odessa, and Kharkiv to Russia, perhaps legally (though again, under duress and blatant war crimes, unjust war and murder of civilians) might well be worth it. How long till the world returns to business as usual? The world largely shrugged off Georgia, Crimea and Syria.
That said, the strike clearly didn't go as planned. Putin tried to keep the military force used small and contained, to maintain the pretense that they weren't blatantly invading sovereign territory. The secrecy and perhaps paranoia behind the attack led to poor Russian planning, organizing and goal setting. Coordination is bad. The Ukraine military and civilian population didn't collapse at all. This isn't a repeat of the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan, this isn't a lightning decapitation strike. This has turned into a disaster, with heavier than expected sanctions, and Russia is reverting to their usual brute force tactics of murdering civilians and destroying basic infrastructure.
posted by Jacen at 10:28 AM on March 6, 2022 [14 favorites]
> I often wonder how much of Russia's rule is by Putin alone, and how much of that is a figurehead/Great Man narrative being an easier story to report on.
I have no expertise in this area, but it seems to be very widely believed by people who should be experts.
I linked to some of them in a previous comment.
posted by justkevin at 10:29 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I have no expertise in this area, but it seems to be very widely believed by people who should be experts.
I linked to some of them in a previous comment.
posted by justkevin at 10:29 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
>Professionals worry about logistics.
"The moral is to the physical as three is to one"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
"The moral is to the physical as three is to one"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
I keep hearing about Russia's oligarchy (which I believe is a Russian word for what we call "billionaires" in English), but I can't name any of the oligarchs off the top of my head besides Putin.
It's acquired a pretty specific meaning in English, which is people who exploited the chaos of a country falling apart by bribing officials into giving them high value state resources for basically nothing, then using their huge fortunes to basically act with impunity anywhere in the world they like.
A large number of them live in London. If you haven't heard of them, it's because they keep a low profile and the ones who don't tend to have a short life expectancy.
posted by kersplunk at 10:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
It's acquired a pretty specific meaning in English, which is people who exploited the chaos of a country falling apart by bribing officials into giving them high value state resources for basically nothing, then using their huge fortunes to basically act with impunity anywhere in the world they like.
A large number of them live in London. If you haven't heard of them, it's because they keep a low profile and the ones who don't tend to have a short life expectancy.
posted by kersplunk at 10:42 AM on March 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
yeah this 'their oligarchs are just our billionaires' line came up on twitter and this was my thought: Bezos, Musk, Zuck, Gates, Buffet, Ellison, Page & Brin, Ballmer, the Waltons, Bloomberg are our the US's richest peeps and have leveraged ownership positions in successful startups to reach their respective immense wealth positions.
Even the Koch brothers don't quite fit into what an oligarch is, though they come closer than the above tech moguls. Oligarchy is crony capitalism/socialism/whatever where wealth is ripped out of the public sector and protected by one's connections to government power.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:51 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Even the Koch brothers don't quite fit into what an oligarch is, though they come closer than the above tech moguls. Oligarchy is crony capitalism/socialism/whatever where wealth is ripped out of the public sector and protected by one's connections to government power.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:51 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Bezos has his criticism but did not go to say the KGB in 1994 to steal the money for the food shipments into St Petersburg.
posted by geoff. at 11:15 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by geoff. at 11:15 AM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
until the overwhelming numbers wear their enemy down
That. What you're seeing is the waste inherent in a corruption-driven system. But that doesn't mean it will fail. You don't need an accurate or efficient missile to blow something up, if you have hundreds of them, the will power of a zombie, and all the time you need. As long as Russia controls the pace and duration of the war, they will win. Economic sanctions may take away Russia's control of duration, bur really I think only counter-attack can affect their control of the pace. Not that we should do that.
posted by ctmf at 11:24 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
That. What you're seeing is the waste inherent in a corruption-driven system. But that doesn't mean it will fail. You don't need an accurate or efficient missile to blow something up, if you have hundreds of them, the will power of a zombie, and all the time you need. As long as Russia controls the pace and duration of the war, they will win. Economic sanctions may take away Russia's control of duration, bur really I think only counter-attack can affect their control of the pace. Not that we should do that.
posted by ctmf at 11:24 AM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
What you're seeing is the waste inherent in a corruption-driven system.
The same system Donny and Jared were trying their best to install in the US, by the way.
posted by ctmf at 11:34 AM on March 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
The same system Donny and Jared were trying their best to install in the US, by the way.
posted by ctmf at 11:34 AM on March 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
US Troops Are Accumulating in Europe as the Pentagon Eyes Putin's Ukraine War, Military.com, Steve Beynon, 4 Mar 2022.
Related: Global Weapons Pipeline into Ukraine Is Being Managed by US European Command.
posted by cenoxo at 11:37 AM on March 6, 2022
Related: Global Weapons Pipeline into Ukraine Is Being Managed by US European Command.
posted by cenoxo at 11:37 AM on March 6, 2022
I think Putin and Russia are in trouble on two fronts. First, the attempt to take Ukraine quickly failed. Now they need to spend resources grinding out control of its territory. Since Russia has a huge military advantage, that seems just a matter of time. But then they reach their second problem: holding that territory.
Once they "win" they'll be stuck managing the occupation with a depleted and demoralized fighting force. Meanwhile, Ukrainian national identity and anger at the Russians is at an all time high. They'll be fighting an endless insurgency, basically forever.
This leaves Russia's military bogged down in Ukraine, while the Russian economy sputters and possibly collapses. Russia will be unable to engage in any other military operations. Russian will be unable to enforce martial law in its own cities if a large protest movement takes hold.
All they have left is the military deterrent of their aging and likely poorly maintained nuclear forces. But NATO will never need to invade. NATO can merely contain and let Putin's government slowly starve itself to death.
The West's reaction wasn't $2 worth of sanctions, it was the correct strategy. And it was the US and the Biden administration that pulled this together.
posted by elwoodwiles at 11:51 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Once they "win" they'll be stuck managing the occupation with a depleted and demoralized fighting force. Meanwhile, Ukrainian national identity and anger at the Russians is at an all time high. They'll be fighting an endless insurgency, basically forever.
This leaves Russia's military bogged down in Ukraine, while the Russian economy sputters and possibly collapses. Russia will be unable to engage in any other military operations. Russian will be unable to enforce martial law in its own cities if a large protest movement takes hold.
All they have left is the military deterrent of their aging and likely poorly maintained nuclear forces. But NATO will never need to invade. NATO can merely contain and let Putin's government slowly starve itself to death.
The West's reaction wasn't $2 worth of sanctions, it was the correct strategy. And it was the US and the Biden administration that pulled this together.
posted by elwoodwiles at 11:51 AM on March 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
I don’t really know which of the various YouTubers with supposed military backgrounds to take seriously and which ones are just talking out of their ass.
So I’m reduced to hoping the optimistic assessments are more correct than the pessimistic ones.
posted by interogative mood at 12:01 PM on March 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
So I’m reduced to hoping the optimistic assessments are more correct than the pessimistic ones.
posted by interogative mood at 12:01 PM on March 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
As Napoleon’s Grande Armeé set out to conquer Russia, the fearless emperor doomed this endeavor from the beginning. He planned for his army to obtain supplies from a land that could not sustain it. He intended to bend the Russian czar to his will quickly and surely. The Russians realized this massive oversight and exploited it to the fullest. Napoleon’s army, unable to meet the basic needs of survival, descended into a chaotic mob of humanity, utterly vulnerable to Russian winter and Russian soldiers.
The Grand Failure: How Logistics of Supply Defeated Napoleon in 1812
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:47 PM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Grand Failure: How Logistics of Supply Defeated Napoleon in 1812
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:47 PM on March 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Minard's visualization of Napolean's march to and retreat from Moscow
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:52 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:52 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Here is an assessment by the Modern War Institute at West Point. Given their association with the US military I assume these folks are more in the know than the average mil-blogger/podcaster.
posted by interogative mood at 12:55 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:55 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Unfortunately for Russia the US conducted a decades-long seminar in asymmetrical warfare by resistance forces so Ukraine has plenty of tactical examples to draw on. Ukraine also has land borders with several countries that are hostile to Russia's invasion and are likely conduits for weapons and other support. Even if the Russians manage to occupy the whole country it could be worse for them than their occupation of Afghanistan.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:07 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 1:07 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
About two days into the conflict it was ‘confirmed’ that Ukrainian forces had shot down two Russian IL-76s near Kyiv. As best I can tell there has been no imagery to support this claim. Large jets leave a lot of wreckage over a large area when they get shot out of the sky.
Ukraine’s information campaign has been very effective but I’m not sure how clear a picture of the conflict we’re getting.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 1:28 PM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ukraine’s information campaign has been very effective but I’m not sure how clear a picture of the conflict we’re getting.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 1:28 PM on March 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
weapons and other support. Even if the Russians manage to occupy the whole country it could be worse for them than their occupation of Afghanistan.
The Ukrainians also aren't likely to randomly turn around and start with anti-Western terrorism, so there's also less of an issue giving them the heavier weaponry. Iraqis and Afghans were doing it with IEDs, not modern MANPADS and MANPATS. You can't really run a modern state if any random farmer might pop out from behind a tree and fairly easily kill anything up to a main battle tank.
posted by jaduncan at 1:33 PM on March 6, 2022
The Ukrainians also aren't likely to randomly turn around and start with anti-Western terrorism, so there's also less of an issue giving them the heavier weaponry. Iraqis and Afghans were doing it with IEDs, not modern MANPADS and MANPATS. You can't really run a modern state if any random farmer might pop out from behind a tree and fairly easily kill anything up to a main battle tank.
posted by jaduncan at 1:33 PM on March 6, 2022
The AP has cited two unnamed American officials as confirming that two Russian IL-76 aircraft have been shot down. I don’t know how much wreckage would be left. Big airplane full of fuel and weapons gets hit by a missile; not sure how much would he left after it got hit by a missile and then crashed into the ground . My assumption is not much.
posted by interogative mood at 1:55 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 1:55 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don’t really know which of the various YouTubers with supposed military backgrounds to take seriously and which ones are just talking out of their ass.
And just because you were in the military (even relatively high up) doesn't mean you understand military strategy.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:58 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
And just because you were in the military (even relatively high up) doesn't mean you understand military strategy.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:58 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Iraqis and Afghans were doing it with IEDs, not modern MANPADS and MANPATS.
Eh. The CIA gave them the top tech at the time to shoot down Russian helicopters. That stuff is just much harder to marshal and maintain for a war a half-dozen years into the future, so it'll all be used when it arrives.
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:00 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Eh. The CIA gave them the top tech at the time to shoot down Russian helicopters. That stuff is just much harder to marshal and maintain for a war a half-dozen years into the future, so it'll all be used when it arrives.
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:00 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I have no idea how anything works, and apologies in advance if this is unhelpful speculation, but I wonder if Russia’s haphazard deployment could be due not just to incompetence or underestimating Ukraine’s capability, but a tactical decision to hold experienced troops and better equipment in reserve in case things escalate and they end up in direct conflict with NATO forces.
Like bringing a knife to a perceived knife fight so that their gun is still available later, if needed.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 3:57 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Like bringing a knife to a perceived knife fight so that their gun is still available later, if needed.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 3:57 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think that's unlikely. A swift success in Ukraine, toppling the Zelensky government and hamstringing the military with few if any civilian casualties would have made the Russian puppetization of Ukraine a fait accompli before the west was able to properly develop a consensus. I think it's far more likely a catastrophic miscalculation rather than a shrewd self-rope-a-dope.
posted by tclark at 4:09 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by tclark at 4:09 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
experienced troops and better equipment in reserve in case things escalate and they end up in direct conflict with NATO forces.
Multiple commentators have suggested this is basically happening, sending really old tech to war first, and using conscripts on the front lines (rather than as logistical support). One cited Youtuber upthread suggests this was a common Soviet tactic, and that leadership is more comfortable with casualties than the West is. Presumably because anyone who opposes the leaders is at risk of becoming a casualty themselves. It's worked okay for generals in the part, and even if it doesn't work this time, its better to fail conventionally than try something new and still fail.
And it looks fairly conventional at this point. If you look at the maps, Russia has forces to the north, south, east, and apparently the border of Moldova to the west. Kyiv is being encircled at which point Russia can sit and wait for surrender, as the re-supply of antitank and antiair is cut off. Even the indiscriminate bombing has been used twice in recent memory.
posted by pwnguin at 4:35 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Multiple commentators have suggested this is basically happening, sending really old tech to war first, and using conscripts on the front lines (rather than as logistical support). One cited Youtuber upthread suggests this was a common Soviet tactic, and that leadership is more comfortable with casualties than the West is. Presumably because anyone who opposes the leaders is at risk of becoming a casualty themselves. It's worked okay for generals in the part, and even if it doesn't work this time, its better to fail conventionally than try something new and still fail.
And it looks fairly conventional at this point. If you look at the maps, Russia has forces to the north, south, east, and apparently the border of Moldova to the west. Kyiv is being encircled at which point Russia can sit and wait for surrender, as the re-supply of antitank and antiair is cut off. Even the indiscriminate bombing has been used twice in recent memory.
posted by pwnguin at 4:35 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine may lose this battle but Putin has already lost the war.
posted by clavdivs at 4:46 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 4:46 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
and if there is a peace, he's going to lose that, too
posted by pyramid termite at 5:16 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by pyramid termite at 5:16 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
>Kyiv is being encircled at which point Russia can sit and wait for surrender
Berlin Airlift II?
US couldn't "win" in Vietnam since we couldn't isolate the S from the N's (and surviving "VC") infiltration tactics. (This war is over when the 40M Ukrainians say it is.)
I'm going to hold off opining too much here since whatever's going to happen is going to happen and there's not anything I can do about it, other than thank
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 5:25 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Berlin Airlift II?
US couldn't "win" in Vietnam since we couldn't isolate the S from the N's (and surviving "VC") infiltration tactics. (This war is over when the 40M Ukrainians say it is.)
I'm going to hold off opining too much here since whatever's going to happen is going to happen and there's not anything I can do about it, other than thank
$deity that Trump and his idiot coterie are mostly out of power now.posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 5:25 PM on March 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Yet again, it's an insane old man, leading naive, nationalistic young men and women into a war that only bring death and pain.
While we can hope for the best, the numbers of Russian troops circling Ukraine does not look good. Or the fact that Russia is willing to lock up any number of its own population who speaks out.
posted by greenhornet at 5:54 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
While we can hope for the best, the numbers of Russian troops circling Ukraine does not look good. Or the fact that Russia is willing to lock up any number of its own population who speaks out.
posted by greenhornet at 5:54 PM on March 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
it's like shooting each foot.
posted by clavdivs at 6:03 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 6:03 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
In the first few days, I was dreading that Russia was just burning up old/ outdated equipment (FIFO/ first in first out - cheaper than decommissioning them properly) and feeding conscripts to the meatgrinder.
But increasingly, it seems like corruption/ shooting the messenger led to a complete farce of understanding the true status of materiel and readiness. I was once fired from a job for reporting the true state of affairs when an operations director kept telling senior management "It was great," "Everything went well," "Nope, no problems. Is good," when... all of those really weren't and I had to fix things to keep the machine running, without acknowledgement or support.
The reports of Sovjet-era fuel tankers/ repurposed civilian transports being railroaded into the theatre feel a lot like my running around and trying to fix things, without acknowledgement or support.
I'm hoping that the reported Russian military failures are a result of corruption, and not a cynical and morally repugnant means of "getting rid of old/ worthless stock, cheaply" before putting the "new toys" into play.
Not that Russia is beholden to EU RoHS - and even then, RoHS specifically excludes military materiel.
posted by porpoise at 8:03 PM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
But increasingly, it seems like corruption/ shooting the messenger led to a complete farce of understanding the true status of materiel and readiness. I was once fired from a job for reporting the true state of affairs when an operations director kept telling senior management "It was great," "Everything went well," "Nope, no problems. Is good," when... all of those really weren't and I had to fix things to keep the machine running, without acknowledgement or support.
The reports of Sovjet-era fuel tankers/ repurposed civilian transports being railroaded into the theatre feel a lot like my running around and trying to fix things, without acknowledgement or support.
I'm hoping that the reported Russian military failures are a result of corruption, and not a cynical and morally repugnant means of "getting rid of old/ worthless stock, cheaply" before putting the "new toys" into play.
Not that Russia is beholden to EU RoHS - and even then, RoHS specifically excludes military materiel.
posted by porpoise at 8:03 PM on March 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Bullets don't fly without supply! (Terminal Lance)
Also contributing to the Russian logistics issues is the (Chinese-requested) delay until after the Winter Olympics, where ground that should be nicely frozen has become impassable mud. The few trucks that they have can't get around the other vehicles on the road.
This also explains a little (but in no way justifies) the immense US military budget, because it's entirely expeditionary. Fighting two continents away is what the US military is designed to do.
posted by meowzilla at 8:23 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also contributing to the Russian logistics issues is the (Chinese-requested) delay until after the Winter Olympics, where ground that should be nicely frozen has become impassable mud. The few trucks that they have can't get around the other vehicles on the road.
This also explains a little (but in no way justifies) the immense US military budget, because it's entirely expeditionary. Fighting two continents away is what the US military is designed to do.
posted by meowzilla at 8:23 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I want to believe that the Russian advance is doomed by poor logistics. They are certainly having some level of problems.
But back in November I read this War On The Rocks article about Russian logistics. It points out that the Russian army is heavily dependent on rail, and predicted that in an attack they would advance about 90 miles then have a logistics pause to resupply. This video and this arrticle linked in recent threads make similar points.
The problem is that a successful logistics pause and a total failure of logistics look quite similar at this point in time: an attack then a slowdown.
It could be that poor maintenance and corruption are crippling the Russian advance. But it could also be that they have had some problems but are being broadly successful in building up depots and supply points ready for the next wave of the advance. If they can take the cities with rail depots in the South that might give them a way to supply by rail as well.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:43 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
But back in November I read this War On The Rocks article about Russian logistics. It points out that the Russian army is heavily dependent on rail, and predicted that in an attack they would advance about 90 miles then have a logistics pause to resupply. This video and this arrticle linked in recent threads make similar points.
The problem is that a successful logistics pause and a total failure of logistics look quite similar at this point in time: an attack then a slowdown.
It could be that poor maintenance and corruption are crippling the Russian advance. But it could also be that they have had some problems but are being broadly successful in building up depots and supply points ready for the next wave of the advance. If they can take the cities with rail depots in the South that might give them a way to supply by rail as well.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:43 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
But back in November I read this War On The Rocks article about Russian logistics. It points out that the Russian army is heavily dependent on rail, and predicted that in an attack they would advance about 90 miles then have a logistics pause to resupply. This video yt and this arrticle linked in recent threads make similar points.
Doesn't take make very vulnerable to sabotage? Can they really effectively defend kms of rail in a country they don't control?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:31 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Doesn't take make very vulnerable to sabotage? Can they really effectively defend kms of rail in a country they don't control?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:31 PM on March 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
The rail thing is part of why Ukraine is defending Kharkiv so ferociously -- it's a major rail nexus. But I agree, with a friendly countryside and plenty of ingenious farmers with heavy equipment, it seems like if they gained control of railway sections, they would be quickly disabled.
Update on the progression of disinfo accounts (which had started with India-based and moved on to cryptobro), now I'm seeing a lot of minimum effort accounts, often no profile picture even. I should track some of these to check their status in a few days -- I'm wondering if Twitter is aggressively going after accounts and thus the migration.
posted by tavella at 9:42 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Update on the progression of disinfo accounts (which had started with India-based and moved on to cryptobro), now I'm seeing a lot of minimum effort accounts, often no profile picture even. I should track some of these to check their status in a few days -- I'm wondering if Twitter is aggressively going after accounts and thus the migration.
posted by tavella at 9:42 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Based on various sources I've read/listened too over the past couple of weeks, i get the feeling that Putin/Russian leadership thought and/or hoped they'd find a more welcoming population than they encountered in reality. Basically, it's the old "we'll be greeted as liberators" delusion and lie. Hence the attempts to airdrop paratroopers into Kiev to capture airports and infiltrate the city at the beginning of the invasion, which failed miserably. At this point I can't help but wonder some of the massive convoy wasn't meant to supply garrisons occupying cities that the Russians thought and/or hoped they'd control by now.
Unfortunately, one of the few western analysts outside the US government who predicted the invasion describes a Russian military that underwent substantial reforms over the past decade to be fairly dependent on long range artillery and anti-aircraft weapons as opposed to combat aircraft and tanks like the Nato militaries. Although I have pretty low confidence in all the sources I read, that would explain one of the aspects the Russian attack that has puzzled observers I've read: the relative absence of the Russia air force. As westerners, we're accustomed to extensive air campaigns preceding or even taking the place of ground invasions, but according to this source that is not how the Russia military operates.
The horrible thing is, that means Russia is basically left with the massed artillery tactics it used during the second Chechen War when it basically leveled cities. I hope Putin and his cronies burn in hell for this.
posted by eagles123 at 9:57 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Unfortunately, one of the few western analysts outside the US government who predicted the invasion describes a Russian military that underwent substantial reforms over the past decade to be fairly dependent on long range artillery and anti-aircraft weapons as opposed to combat aircraft and tanks like the Nato militaries. Although I have pretty low confidence in all the sources I read, that would explain one of the aspects the Russian attack that has puzzled observers I've read: the relative absence of the Russia air force. As westerners, we're accustomed to extensive air campaigns preceding or even taking the place of ground invasions, but according to this source that is not how the Russia military operates.
The horrible thing is, that means Russia is basically left with the massed artillery tactics it used during the second Chechen War when it basically leveled cities. I hope Putin and his cronies burn in hell for this.
posted by eagles123 at 9:57 PM on March 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
One thing that has been explained to me recently is that one of the big advantages the US has over Russia is that we have the money to use and train with our equipment and keep spare parts around. It costs a lot of money every hour you fly your expensive jets, so while Russia has some great planes the pilots don’t have the flight time and because of corruption they don’t always have the replacement parts in inventory to keep up with maintenance. On top of this they have had to cut corners. So they bought cheaper tires and now those are falling apart at higher rates than they expected. When you have thousands of vehicles that need to get somewhere in a hurry it’s a big problem if your tire failure rates go up.
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 PM on March 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
@JimmySecUK: "In an apparent attempt to help fix their broken logistics, the Russians are pushing up all manner of civilian vehicles to the front in Ukraine."[1]
@andreivkozyrev: "The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military"
> i get the feeling that Putin/Russian leadership thought and/or hoped they'd find a more welcoming population than they encountered in reality.
@rommari: "Russian soldier arrives in Ukraine, gets captured and gives a press conference in Kyiv saying that Russian soldiers are brainwashed to believe that they're liberating Ukraine. When they come to the country, they realise they're not wanted there."[2]
@KofmanMichael: "This story is consistent with numerous other accounts. Beyond the terrible assumptions and planning, what also shaped Russian forces' morale and combat effectiveness is a decision not to prepare the troops for the war & lying about the nature of the fight they would face."
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on March 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
@andreivkozyrev: "The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military"
> i get the feeling that Putin/Russian leadership thought and/or hoped they'd find a more welcoming population than they encountered in reality.
@rommari: "Russian soldier arrives in Ukraine, gets captured and gives a press conference in Kyiv saying that Russian soldiers are brainwashed to believe that they're liberating Ukraine. When they come to the country, they realise they're not wanted there."[2]
@KofmanMichael: "This story is consistent with numerous other accounts. Beyond the terrible assumptions and planning, what also shaped Russian forces' morale and combat effectiveness is a decision not to prepare the troops for the war & lying about the nature of the fight they would face."
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on March 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
Multiple commentators have suggested this is basically happening, sending really old tech to war first, and using conscripts on the front lines (rather than as logistical support). One cited Youtuber upthread suggests this was a common Soviet tactic, and that leadership is more comfortable with casualties than the West is.
But ethnic Russians no longer have seven sons per family as they used to. The problem with imperalistic war-mongering is that eventually you run out of other people's kids.
Apparently Putin wants to address that by recruiting among the more fertile minorities. Presumably that's what Putin's "I'm Dagestani, I'm Chechen, I'm Ingush, Tartar, Jew"-speech was about. Seems to somewhat go against the white-ethno-state-fever-dream, but minorities are always good enough for cannon fodder, I guess, so it probably won't cost Putin too many points with his Nazi fans. Could backfire though, as these minorities could also realize that Putin will indeed become increasingly dependent on them and that they might as well use their fertility advantage to gain their own independence....
I also read that Putin plans to recruit Central Asian immigrants by offering Russian passports for military service. The question is how attractive a Russian passport still is now that the Russian economy has been laid waste to by the sanctions. Lots of Russians who still have options are already taking those options and leaving for the very countries whose current citizens Putin hopes to draw to Russia. The brain drain has already been reversed.
Unless Putin goes full North Korea and locks up his own citizens, he will rather sooner than later be left with a dwindling, aging population, because he has killed off and driven away the young, kneecaping Russia's potential for the next decades. He's effectively turning Russia into a Chinese vassal state, as he's become entirely economically dependent and the Russians too will soon learn what it's like to be at the complete mercy of a more powerful neighbour.
Unfortunately, I fear even sooner rather than later will be too late for the Ukraine. Putin will still sell this as a victory, as long as he kills enough Ukrainians in the process. Of course we can identify it as Pyrrhic victory, but Putin will have some fans left sufficiently brainwashed to ignore that - enough to make a coup into a dicey affair. Everyone's hoping for a proper Brutus, but Caesar's assassination did cause a civil war.
My heart breaks for Ukraine, and I am properly concerned as to what ideas all of this is giving the Chinese. Only one thing is certain: Russia won't become the envy of Europe any time soon.
posted by sohalt at 11:39 PM on March 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
But ethnic Russians no longer have seven sons per family as they used to. The problem with imperalistic war-mongering is that eventually you run out of other people's kids.
Apparently Putin wants to address that by recruiting among the more fertile minorities. Presumably that's what Putin's "I'm Dagestani, I'm Chechen, I'm Ingush, Tartar, Jew"-speech was about. Seems to somewhat go against the white-ethno-state-fever-dream, but minorities are always good enough for cannon fodder, I guess, so it probably won't cost Putin too many points with his Nazi fans. Could backfire though, as these minorities could also realize that Putin will indeed become increasingly dependent on them and that they might as well use their fertility advantage to gain their own independence....
I also read that Putin plans to recruit Central Asian immigrants by offering Russian passports for military service. The question is how attractive a Russian passport still is now that the Russian economy has been laid waste to by the sanctions. Lots of Russians who still have options are already taking those options and leaving for the very countries whose current citizens Putin hopes to draw to Russia. The brain drain has already been reversed.
Unless Putin goes full North Korea and locks up his own citizens, he will rather sooner than later be left with a dwindling, aging population, because he has killed off and driven away the young, kneecaping Russia's potential for the next decades. He's effectively turning Russia into a Chinese vassal state, as he's become entirely economically dependent and the Russians too will soon learn what it's like to be at the complete mercy of a more powerful neighbour.
Unfortunately, I fear even sooner rather than later will be too late for the Ukraine. Putin will still sell this as a victory, as long as he kills enough Ukrainians in the process. Of course we can identify it as Pyrrhic victory, but Putin will have some fans left sufficiently brainwashed to ignore that - enough to make a coup into a dicey affair. Everyone's hoping for a proper Brutus, but Caesar's assassination did cause a civil war.
My heart breaks for Ukraine, and I am properly concerned as to what ideas all of this is giving the Chinese. Only one thing is certain: Russia won't become the envy of Europe any time soon.
posted by sohalt at 11:39 PM on March 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
There were months (years??) when we didn’t know where all of the nuclear material the USSR had created was.
i think it's clear we don't know who has the nuke parts, the anthrax reserves, and all the smallpox.
it's been suggested that the soviet collapse led a braine drain to the middle east, india, pakistan, and china, where ex-soviet scientists could feed their families.
seems likely, but I'm just some stranger on the internet. - cold war kid.
posted by j_curiouser at 12:54 AM on March 7, 2022
i think it's clear we don't know who has the nuke parts, the anthrax reserves, and all the smallpox.
it's been suggested that the soviet collapse led a braine drain to the middle east, india, pakistan, and china, where ex-soviet scientists could feed their families.
seems likely, but I'm just some stranger on the internet. - cold war kid.
posted by j_curiouser at 12:54 AM on March 7, 2022
After looking at kliuless' links posted above, I am cautiously optimistic. If you need to bring in civilian vehicles less than 2 weeks into the invasion, it is not strategy and you are not winning.
Also, the @andreivkozyrev -thread is interesting, in that it shows how Putins decision-making can be seen as rational. Somewhere in some thread, I posited that this is in fact the perfect timing for an invasion (from a Russian POV), both because gas prices are at an all-time high and because it may be the last chance. As sohalt writes above here, the Russian population is dwindling already, and its sources of immigration are drying out. In relatively few years, Russia will be so out of people that an aggressive war is impossible.
Hitler wanted to colonize Eastern Europe and Russia because he believed he had learnt that Germany lost WWI because of a lack of food. He was wrong, and immoral, but there was a rationale. Putin desperately needs more people, if Russia is to be able to even defend its borders. Of course, annexing Ukraine would extend those borders considerably, but it's not unheard of that leaders of great powers miscalculate, remember how war in Iraq would bring peace and democracy to the Middle East?
posted by mumimor at 1:03 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Also, the @andreivkozyrev -thread is interesting, in that it shows how Putins decision-making can be seen as rational. Somewhere in some thread, I posited that this is in fact the perfect timing for an invasion (from a Russian POV), both because gas prices are at an all-time high and because it may be the last chance. As sohalt writes above here, the Russian population is dwindling already, and its sources of immigration are drying out. In relatively few years, Russia will be so out of people that an aggressive war is impossible.
Hitler wanted to colonize Eastern Europe and Russia because he believed he had learnt that Germany lost WWI because of a lack of food. He was wrong, and immoral, but there was a rationale. Putin desperately needs more people, if Russia is to be able to even defend its borders. Of course, annexing Ukraine would extend those borders considerably, but it's not unheard of that leaders of great powers miscalculate, remember how war in Iraq would bring peace and democracy to the Middle East?
posted by mumimor at 1:03 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
. Of course, annexing Ukraine would extend those borders considerably,
Not that much actually as long as Lukashenko is Putin's proxy. The main difference would be Russia having much longer direct land borders with NATO/EU countries.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:26 AM on March 7, 2022
Not that much actually as long as Lukashenko is Putin's proxy. The main difference would be Russia having much longer direct land borders with NATO/EU countries.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:26 AM on March 7, 2022
At a secret airfield in Eastern Europe, a multinational effort to send weapons to Ukraine proceeds at high speed, Oren Liebermann, CNN, Updated 4:53 PM ET, Sun March 6, 2022:
Washington (CNN) – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley went last week to an undisclosed airfield near the Ukrainian border that has become a hub for shipping weapons, a senior Defense Department official said, seeing firsthand the multinational effort to get weapons into Ukraine amid Russia's unprovoked invasion.posted by cenoxo at 4:07 AM on March 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
While at the airfield, Milley met with troops and personnel and examined the shipment activity, the official said Friday. The site has become a beehive of activity in recent days, going from a handful of flights each day to as many as 17, the field's maximum capacity.
The airport's location remains a secret to protect the shipments of weapons, including anti-armor missiles, into Ukraine. The Russian military has not targeted these shipments once they enter Ukraine, the official said, but there is some concern Russia could begin targeting the deliveries as its assault advances.
Since even before Russia's invasion began late last month, the skies above Europe have been filled with military cargo aircraft of the US and others, particularly C-17s, the backbone of the US airlift fleet. The flights have been repositioning troops along NATO's eastern flank, but also moving weapons to the transfer points where they can be delivered to Ukraine. The pace of the flights has only increased.
US European Command (EUCOM) [Wikipedia] is at the heart of the massive shipment operation, using its liaison network with allies and partners to coordinate "in real time" to send materials into Ukraine, a second Defense official said.
EUCOM is also coordinating with other countries, including the United Kingdom, in terms of the delivery process "to ensure that we are using our resources to maximum efficiency to support the Ukrainians in an organized way," the official added.
Since Russia's invasion began, 14 countries have sent security assistance to Ukraine, the official said, some of whom had rarely sent such substantial equipment before. The "vast majority" of a $350 million US security assistance package has already been delivered to Ukraine, according to the official, only one week after it was officially approved by the White House….
I think it's become abundantly clear that the invasion has not taken the course intended by Putin and his leadership, and it's also clear that the cost (as measured along just about any axis you wish) is vastly higher than expected.
The thing to keep in mind is that when you say cost you are not really talking about a cost to Putin but a cost to the little people. What Putin faces is a political risk. Megabillionaire autocrats don't have the same kind of balance sheet that ordinary people do.
posted by srboisvert at 4:15 AM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The thing to keep in mind is that when you say cost you are not really talking about a cost to Putin but a cost to the little people. What Putin faces is a political risk. Megabillionaire autocrats don't have the same kind of balance sheet that ordinary people do.
posted by srboisvert at 4:15 AM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine War Sparks Call for Billions More in Pentagon Funding, Military.com, Rebecca Kheel, 3 Mar 2022:
The U.S. response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is poised to cost billions of dollars, with the Biden administration asking Congress for more Pentagon funding immediately and talk already starting of beefing up next year's defense budget. The White House on Thursday asked Congress for $10 billion to respond to the war in Ukraine, including $4.8 billion for the Pentagon.posted by cenoxo at 4:43 AM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Meanwhile, the Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee said Thursday there's "no doubt" the invasion will mean a bigger defense budget in fiscal 2023 than previously expected….
Also contributing to the Russian logistics issues is the (Chinese-requested) delay until after the Winter Olympics, where ground that should be nicely frozen has become impassable mud. The few trucks that they have can't get around the other vehicles on the road.
There is something terribly ironic about the Russian army being stalled by their own famous General Mud.
posted by srboisvert at 5:49 AM on March 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
There is something terribly ironic about the Russian army being stalled by their own famous General Mud.
posted by srboisvert at 5:49 AM on March 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
From another age and overextended emperor, Lessons From ‘Losses From the Russian Campaign’ – Joseph Charles Minard’s 1869 ‘Carte figurative des pertes successives en hommes de l’Armée Française dans la campagne de Russie 1812-1813.’ at The Art of Consequences by Sarah Grace.
posted by cenoxo
Thanks for posting this, Cenoxo. It has always seemed to me to be the best representation of the cost of war and hubris that I've ever seen.
posted by etaoin at 6:40 AM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by cenoxo
Thanks for posting this, Cenoxo. It has always seemed to me to be the best representation of the cost of war and hubris that I've ever seen.
posted by etaoin at 6:40 AM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Reports coming in that Ukraine managed to attack an airport near Kherson and destroy up to 30 Russian helicopters on the ground last night. There is footage of the attack on the airport, but it only shows multiple explosions in the distance.
They also downed another SU-34 and captured the pilot who is a Lt Col and commander of the whole air wing.
Ukraine also sank one of Russia’s brand new corvettes yesterday in the Black Sea. This was a state of the art design with a supposedly low radar signature and other features.
posted by interogative mood at 6:47 AM on March 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
They also downed another SU-34 and captured the pilot who is a Lt Col and commander of the whole air wing.
Ukraine also sank one of Russia’s brand new corvettes yesterday in the Black Sea. This was a state of the art design with a supposedly low radar signature and other features.
posted by interogative mood at 6:47 AM on March 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
"Ukraine also sank one of Russia’s brand new corvettes yesterday in the Black Sea"
Anyone with a saltwater and live rock habit now only needs this to complete their next tank.
posted by tigrrrlily at 7:43 AM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Anyone with a saltwater and live rock habit now only needs this to complete their next tank.
posted by tigrrrlily at 7:43 AM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
The White House on Thursday asked Congress for $10 billion to respond to the war in Ukraine, including $4.8 billion for the Pentagon.
1. Russia has demonstrated that its military force is, at best, not nearly as effective as it hoped or we feared.
2. Ukraine seems to be succeeding in destroying quite a lot of Russian materiel and demoralizing may Russian soldiers, albeit at a terrible cost.
3. The Russian economy has been devastated, likely slowing or preventing any significant military buildup in short to medium term after this war is over.
4. Indirect participation in the war by Ukrainian allies has been relatively inexpensive and shared by numerous countries, although I hope that peacetime aid for rebuilding Ukraine will be even more substantial.
And yet the conclusion by the US, Germany, and others is that they need an absolutely massive amount of new military spending to counter the Russian threat. If anything it seems like the war has demonstrated the opposite!
posted by jedicus at 8:35 AM on March 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
1. Russia has demonstrated that its military force is, at best, not nearly as effective as it hoped or we feared.
2. Ukraine seems to be succeeding in destroying quite a lot of Russian materiel and demoralizing may Russian soldiers, albeit at a terrible cost.
3. The Russian economy has been devastated, likely slowing or preventing any significant military buildup in short to medium term after this war is over.
4. Indirect participation in the war by Ukrainian allies has been relatively inexpensive and shared by numerous countries, although I hope that peacetime aid for rebuilding Ukraine will be even more substantial.
And yet the conclusion by the US, Germany, and others is that they need an absolutely massive amount of new military spending to counter the Russian threat. If anything it seems like the war has demonstrated the opposite!
posted by jedicus at 8:35 AM on March 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
And yet the conclusion by the US, Germany, and others is that they need an absolutely massive amount of new military spending to counter the Russian threat. If anything it seems like the war has demonstrated the opposite!
posted by jedicus at 11:35 AM on March 7 [3 favorites +] [!]
The thing is, armies tend to get better with hard experience. They need to have the money to replace their losses, though.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:03 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jedicus at 11:35 AM on March 7 [3 favorites +] [!]
The thing is, armies tend to get better with hard experience. They need to have the money to replace their losses, though.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:03 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Our oligarchs would like to remind you that they also like feeding at the public trough, just as the Russian oligarchs do. Not so surprising then that they think we need MORE, MUCH MORE, military funding.
posted by evilDoug at 9:05 AM on March 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by evilDoug at 9:05 AM on March 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Jedicus war is very expensive, even when you are just supplying your allies . Russia has not been defeated and to the contrary is currently in the process of turning cities in Ukraine to rubble with artillery and rockets. For the US the costs are going to be mostly a result of having to have more soldiers in Eastern Europe.
posted by interogative mood at 9:11 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:11 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
I agree with the sense of the push-back jedicus' comment is getting, but I also feel that at least in Europe, the politicians are really milking this moment for popular sentiment re.: arms. No one here likes military spending, and it doesn't play the same role in European economies as it does in the US (except perhaps in Turkey). But now, while everyone is scared, people will vote for more defence capability.
posted by mumimor at 9:17 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 9:17 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Dock Workers and Shipping Lines Widen Boycott of Russian Trade, K. Oanh Ha (Bloomberg), gCaptain, March 7, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 9:39 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Dock workers around the world are pushing to widen bans on Russian ships from their ports, moves that would potentially blacklist more than 1,700 vessels connected to the country as its invasion of Ukraine strains already-disrupted global supply chains.More examples in the article.
Longshoreman unions from Canada, the U.S. and Australia are taken the steps on their own or are asking their governments to refuse entry to Russian merchant ships, following the U.K.’s decision to do so as part of a growing array of sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime.
“Workers around the world are defiant in opposition to Russia’s invasion including thousands of dock workers showing solidarity with the people of the Ukraine and contempt for Putin’s aggression,” Paddy Crumlin, president of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, said in a statement Thursday.
The shipping industry that served as a lifeline to economies through the pandemic is joining the global backlash against Putin’s military offensive by severing trade links. Almost all of the largest seaborne container carriers — with China’s Cosco Shipping Co. being a notable exception — are publicly refusing to book Russian cargo.
Mediterranean Shipping Co. and A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s two biggest container lines, halted bookings for Russian freight, with Maersk warning customers that the wider fallout will have “a global impact, and not only limited to trade with Russia.”…
posted by cenoxo at 9:39 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
But now, while everyone is scared, people will vote for more defence capability.
there is zero doubt in my mind that there will be all manner of corruption here in the West in the name of funding/aiding/supporting Ukraine. It's one of those meta rules. Throw money at a problem and not all of it will hit the target. The more recklessly you throw it, the more that will miss. You might say the entirety of the so-called military-industrial-complex runs on this way too often unexamined reality -- your two hundred dollar hammers, your billion dollar missile systems that are out of date before they're ever even finished. It's all good business if you're situated right.
But the emergency is now and it's the system that we have. What else are we gonna do?
posted by philip-random at 9:40 AM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
there is zero doubt in my mind that there will be all manner of corruption here in the West in the name of funding/aiding/supporting Ukraine. It's one of those meta rules. Throw money at a problem and not all of it will hit the target. The more recklessly you throw it, the more that will miss. You might say the entirety of the so-called military-industrial-complex runs on this way too often unexamined reality -- your two hundred dollar hammers, your billion dollar missile systems that are out of date before they're ever even finished. It's all good business if you're situated right.
But the emergency is now and it's the system that we have. What else are we gonna do?
posted by philip-random at 9:40 AM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
With the cold war 'over', armies in western Europe shrank dramatically, both domestic and US forces based there. The US changed focus to the middle east and China; Europe largely just cashed the peace dividend.
It would be fair to say the invasion of Ukraine has rather spooked European politicians, and a spike in NATO defence spending is likely to be the outcome. Germany is already moving on that, as they've shrunk around 85%. The US is deploying more forces and kit to eastern Europe in a hurry (which takes them from other areas) and I wouldn't be surprised to see France and the UK increase spending also.
Plus someone has to pay to replace all that kit that's getting shipped to Ukraine; javelin & stinger missiles aren't particularly cheap, and there's supposedly a plan to give NATO combat planes to Poland and/or other eastern European countries in exchange for their soviet-era ones going to Ukraine (given Ukrainians know how to fly those and have parts/maintenance capability) - and new jets are $75-$100 million a piece.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:43 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
It would be fair to say the invasion of Ukraine has rather spooked European politicians, and a spike in NATO defence spending is likely to be the outcome. Germany is already moving on that, as they've shrunk around 85%. The US is deploying more forces and kit to eastern Europe in a hurry (which takes them from other areas) and I wouldn't be surprised to see France and the UK increase spending also.
Plus someone has to pay to replace all that kit that's getting shipped to Ukraine; javelin & stinger missiles aren't particularly cheap, and there's supposedly a plan to give NATO combat planes to Poland and/or other eastern European countries in exchange for their soviet-era ones going to Ukraine (given Ukrainians know how to fly those and have parts/maintenance capability) - and new jets are $75-$100 million a piece.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:43 AM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
There are several more Russia sanctions-related articles in gCaptain > Shipping.
It’s a world economic war, indeed.
posted by cenoxo at 9:52 AM on March 7, 2022
It’s a world economic war, indeed.
posted by cenoxo at 9:52 AM on March 7, 2022
The German Army is in a pitiful state, they need to spend some money. They don't even have the rail cars to transport tanks anymore.
posted by Bee'sWing at 10:22 AM on March 7, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 10:22 AM on March 7, 2022
The West’s Sanctions on Russia Are Working Too Well, Eric Levitz, New York Intelligencer, March 7, 2022: “…NATO and its allies have waged something akin to financial war on Vladimir Putin’s regime … economists may actually be underestimating the economic difficulties that lie ahead — for both Russia and its adversaries.”
posted by cenoxo at 10:42 AM on March 7, 2022
posted by cenoxo at 10:42 AM on March 7, 2022
The German Army is in a pitiful state, they need to spend some money. They don't even have the rail cars to transport tanks anymore.
I follow the German news fairly closely, and I'm not opposed to Germany making the military they already have functional (e.g. not having to borrow civilian helicopters to get training hours for their pilots). But there's a big difference between making the military functional and spending 2x their existing annual budget plus a significant annual increase. I'd much sooner see some of those tens of billions of euros go toward accelerated decarbonization, which in addition to being good for its own sake would greatly reduce Russia's influence.
And to be clear I'd say the same of the US and any other wealthy country considering a significant military buildup in response to this war.
posted by jedicus at 11:13 AM on March 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
I follow the German news fairly closely, and I'm not opposed to Germany making the military they already have functional (e.g. not having to borrow civilian helicopters to get training hours for their pilots). But there's a big difference between making the military functional and spending 2x their existing annual budget plus a significant annual increase. I'd much sooner see some of those tens of billions of euros go toward accelerated decarbonization, which in addition to being good for its own sake would greatly reduce Russia's influence.
And to be clear I'd say the same of the US and any other wealthy country considering a significant military buildup in response to this war.
posted by jedicus at 11:13 AM on March 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
No matter how many journalist hacks, self-described analysts, and foreign policy "Russia experts" weigh in, a couple months from now we're going to see that a lot of the reporting on Ukraine was naive optimism or just classic throw-stuff-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks bullshitting.
Maybe the invasion was a horrific boondoggle that was destined to fail, and the sanctions get enough oligarchs upset at Putin to cripple or remove him from power. Obvious, right?
Maybe Russia is a large military power and Ukraine is a small one, and a West unwilling to get involved militarily means that, after initial difficulties, Russia was destined to take all of Ukraine and Putin is hailed at home as an Alexander the Great. Obvious, right?
If you bet it all on black and lose, that doesn't mean betting it all on red was the sober, smarter strategy.
One thing that is always, always true whether there is war or peace, victory or defeat: the military industrial complex always wants to get rich, and the military industrial complex is always the enemy.
posted by AlSweigart at 11:35 AM on March 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
Maybe the invasion was a horrific boondoggle that was destined to fail, and the sanctions get enough oligarchs upset at Putin to cripple or remove him from power. Obvious, right?
Maybe Russia is a large military power and Ukraine is a small one, and a West unwilling to get involved militarily means that, after initial difficulties, Russia was destined to take all of Ukraine and Putin is hailed at home as an Alexander the Great. Obvious, right?
If you bet it all on black and lose, that doesn't mean betting it all on red was the sober, smarter strategy.
One thing that is always, always true whether there is war or peace, victory or defeat: the military industrial complex always wants to get rich, and the military industrial complex is always the enemy.
posted by AlSweigart at 11:35 AM on March 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
The West’s Sanctions on Russia Are Working Too Well, Eric Levitz, New York Intelligencer, March 7, 2022:
Thanks for posting, it was an interesting read, but it was also the clueless financial/economic POV defending the status quo. We need to get out of a carbon fuel based economy ASAP, and in their own self-defeating and genocidal way, Russia is pushing us do that much faster than we thought we could. While everything else about the invasion is terrible, fast-tracking the transition to renewables is not, and finance and industry will adapt, because that is what they do.
posted by mumimor at 11:38 AM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
Thanks for posting, it was an interesting read, but it was also the clueless financial/economic POV defending the status quo. We need to get out of a carbon fuel based economy ASAP, and in their own self-defeating and genocidal way, Russia is pushing us do that much faster than we thought we could. While everything else about the invasion is terrible, fast-tracking the transition to renewables is not, and finance and industry will adapt, because that is what they do.
posted by mumimor at 11:38 AM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
One thing that is always, always true whether there is war or peace, victory or defeat: the military industrial complex always wants to get rich, and the military industrial complex is always the enemy.
I agreed with you 95%, up until about 2 weeks ago, when the recent history of military action by my own country's soldiers was Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
I have to say though, watching an outright war of conquest happening to your neighbour, see ordinary cities get shelled to rubble a few hundred miles from your own house (and a lot closer for some here), see nearly 2 million refugees fleeing with barely the clothes on their back come begging for safety in under a fortnight, see those left behind literally murdered in the street by the thugs of a dictator, or dying of thirst because they're not allowed to escape the ruins of their homes, while an outnumbered and outclassed army fights for its very life...
Having that front row seat does make you want to strengthen the means to stop that happening even closer to home, even if that means some warmongering arseholes makes money off it.
It kills me that we can't intervene, can't try and stop the mass murder of civilians happening on our own doorstep because it risks nuclear armageddon at the hands of a monster - and all we can hope is that the Russian logistics are as terrible as thought, and it's not just a pause, and just maybe the Ukrainians can hold him back.
But the gas, and oil still coming from Russia? That's just as blood-soaked as any weapons merchant. We need to stop buying that AS WELL as strengthen our defences.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:12 PM on March 7, 2022 [22 favorites]
I agreed with you 95%, up until about 2 weeks ago, when the recent history of military action by my own country's soldiers was Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
I have to say though, watching an outright war of conquest happening to your neighbour, see ordinary cities get shelled to rubble a few hundred miles from your own house (and a lot closer for some here), see nearly 2 million refugees fleeing with barely the clothes on their back come begging for safety in under a fortnight, see those left behind literally murdered in the street by the thugs of a dictator, or dying of thirst because they're not allowed to escape the ruins of their homes, while an outnumbered and outclassed army fights for its very life...
Having that front row seat does make you want to strengthen the means to stop that happening even closer to home, even if that means some warmongering arseholes makes money off it.
It kills me that we can't intervene, can't try and stop the mass murder of civilians happening on our own doorstep because it risks nuclear armageddon at the hands of a monster - and all we can hope is that the Russian logistics are as terrible as thought, and it's not just a pause, and just maybe the Ukrainians can hold him back.
But the gas, and oil still coming from Russia? That's just as blood-soaked as any weapons merchant. We need to stop buying that AS WELL as strengthen our defences.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:12 PM on March 7, 2022 [22 favorites]
The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.
I'm sorry but not to be culturist of tempuraturist, but even the toughest fighters from the middle east in the Ukrainian cold? LO-fucking ship-L the various commentaries that putin has lost already just keep seeming more reasonable. Syrians in a freezing unfamiliar city.
posted by sammyo at 12:31 PM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm sorry but not to be culturist of tempuraturist, but even the toughest fighters from the middle east in the Ukrainian cold? LO-fucking ship-L the various commentaries that putin has lost already just keep seeming more reasonable. Syrians in a freezing unfamiliar city.
posted by sammyo at 12:31 PM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
It would be fair to say the invasion of Ukraine has rather spooked European politicians, and a spike in NATO defence spending is likely to be the outcome. Germany is already moving on that, as they've shrunk around 85%.
The algorithm recently recommended an animated chart of military spending by country over time. Not sure how accurate world bank data is gonna be for 1870, and definitely they dont have monthly or daily datapoints so theres gotta be at least some smoothing, but you can see where it ends up in recent history. The USSR was spending about 50 percent more than the US in 1980, and by 2019 the big European members of NATO are at 50B, Russia at 65, and the US at 10x those numbers.
Now, the US is basically committed to that level of spending to preserve the peace and police international trade routes, under a general policy of N+1: be ready to fight in two wars. If anything should have spooked European politicians, it should have been the possibility of a second Trump term in office, who has bizarrely decided NATO is a bad deal and would prefer to withdraw, over the advice of basically everyone.
posted by pwnguin at 12:34 PM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
The algorithm recently recommended an animated chart of military spending by country over time. Not sure how accurate world bank data is gonna be for 1870, and definitely they dont have monthly or daily datapoints so theres gotta be at least some smoothing, but you can see where it ends up in recent history. The USSR was spending about 50 percent more than the US in 1980, and by 2019 the big European members of NATO are at 50B, Russia at 65, and the US at 10x those numbers.
Now, the US is basically committed to that level of spending to preserve the peace and police international trade routes, under a general policy of N+1: be ready to fight in two wars. If anything should have spooked European politicians, it should have been the possibility of a second Trump term in office, who has bizarrely decided NATO is a bad deal and would prefer to withdraw, over the advice of basically everyone.
posted by pwnguin at 12:34 PM on March 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
"War! what is it good for?
It’s good for business"
-- Billy Bragg, "North Sea Bubble"
posted by kirkaracha at 1:02 PM on March 7, 2022
It’s good for business"
-- Billy Bragg, "North Sea Bubble"
posted by kirkaracha at 1:02 PM on March 7, 2022
Hopefully the Syrians still have access to the outside internet, so they'll decline when they realize they'll be paid in useless rubles, only to sit in a traffic jam without food and gas, eventually getting blown up by Javelins.
posted by meowzilla at 1:04 PM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 1:04 PM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The thing to keep in mind is that when you say cost you are not really talking about a cost to Putin but a cost to the little people. What Putin faces is a political risk. Megabillionaire autocrats don't have the same kind of balance sheet that ordinary people do.
Plenty of those autocrats have their grubby little fingers in the military-industrial complex and have vested interests in this war continuing as long as possible and consuming as much equipment as possible. Every time Ukraine shoots down another Russian helicopter, a cash register in Moscow dings.
posted by dg at 2:07 PM on March 7, 2022
As westerners, we're accustomed to extensive air campaigns preceding or even taking the place of ground invasions, but according to this source that is not how the Russia military operates.
Well, yes and no. The Russians are less air-focused than the American military, but just about every military is, because airpower is the most expensive form of military power. But they've got an air force and they understand the necessity of air superiority.
The Russian problem with air superiority is that Ukraine is, well, big. Everybody tends to forget it's big when you look at maps of the invasion fronts because it's right next to Russia, which is the biggest country there is. But Ukraine is very, very large as well! So: The closest airbase Russia has to Ukraine is the one just outside Kursk, which is about 450 km away from Kyiv. Which means in order for a plane to fly to Kyiv and back, it's 900km.
The Su-24, the most common fighter-bomber in the Russian air force, has a combat range of 615 km. The Su-34, their next most common, has a combat range of 1000km. All of the other Su-series fighter bombers are roughly in the same spot. (MiGs have more range, but they also mostly don't carry any bombs or other ground attack weaponry - they're designed as air-to-air fighters.)
So, Russia has a problem: it has to fly into Ukraine from Russia, but that means its bombers have much less utility just because of the risks involved in simply getting there and back. On top of that, enough of the Ukrainian Air Force survived the initial attacks that they can harass the Russians quite capably, and the Ukrainians have home turf advantage. Like I said: Ukraine is big. There's a lot of places you could hide one or two fighters on the ground and have them operate for a good long time, which means the Russians have to be conservative in their airstrikes.
The obvious answer for the Russians, then, is to secure airfields in Ukraine. Except there's no such thing as this point. You can't rely on fighters being secure on Ukrainian land, outside of the border areas closest to Russia (and they're close enough that there's no point). Worse, you can't rely on pilots being safe on Ukrainian land, which is worse from a strategic/logistical standpoint because Russia at this point can replace the planes more easily than they can the pilots. It takes a long time to properly train a fighter pilot. Like, years. You can't just conscript them.
That's why Russia isn't fighting an air war. It's not because they prefer not to: they know perfectly well that air wars are safer for an invading power, they're not idiots. It's because they can't.
posted by mightygodking at 3:18 PM on March 7, 2022 [27 favorites]
Well, yes and no. The Russians are less air-focused than the American military, but just about every military is, because airpower is the most expensive form of military power. But they've got an air force and they understand the necessity of air superiority.
The Russian problem with air superiority is that Ukraine is, well, big. Everybody tends to forget it's big when you look at maps of the invasion fronts because it's right next to Russia, which is the biggest country there is. But Ukraine is very, very large as well! So: The closest airbase Russia has to Ukraine is the one just outside Kursk, which is about 450 km away from Kyiv. Which means in order for a plane to fly to Kyiv and back, it's 900km.
The Su-24, the most common fighter-bomber in the Russian air force, has a combat range of 615 km. The Su-34, their next most common, has a combat range of 1000km. All of the other Su-series fighter bombers are roughly in the same spot. (MiGs have more range, but they also mostly don't carry any bombs or other ground attack weaponry - they're designed as air-to-air fighters.)
So, Russia has a problem: it has to fly into Ukraine from Russia, but that means its bombers have much less utility just because of the risks involved in simply getting there and back. On top of that, enough of the Ukrainian Air Force survived the initial attacks that they can harass the Russians quite capably, and the Ukrainians have home turf advantage. Like I said: Ukraine is big. There's a lot of places you could hide one or two fighters on the ground and have them operate for a good long time, which means the Russians have to be conservative in their airstrikes.
The obvious answer for the Russians, then, is to secure airfields in Ukraine. Except there's no such thing as this point. You can't rely on fighters being secure on Ukrainian land, outside of the border areas closest to Russia (and they're close enough that there's no point). Worse, you can't rely on pilots being safe on Ukrainian land, which is worse from a strategic/logistical standpoint because Russia at this point can replace the planes more easily than they can the pilots. It takes a long time to properly train a fighter pilot. Like, years. You can't just conscript them.
That's why Russia isn't fighting an air war. It's not because they prefer not to: they know perfectly well that air wars are safer for an invading power, they're not idiots. It's because they can't.
posted by mightygodking at 3:18 PM on March 7, 2022 [27 favorites]
Interestingly, both China and India have announced they are sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine (via Poland). Both nations have largely been seen as soft allies to Russia.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:50 PM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 3:50 PM on March 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Even countries are inclined to take out insurance when risk exists and the future is unclear.
posted by dg at 4:04 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by dg at 4:04 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
There's no downside of providing humanitarian aid to refugees, in stark contrast to providing weapons.
Here's some Sun Tzu: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard."
Letting people leave Ukraine means that there will be less resistance. And it supports the claim that everyone in Ukraine who stayed is there to fight, which means there are no "civilian" casualties.
posted by meowzilla at 4:32 PM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here's some Sun Tzu: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard."
Letting people leave Ukraine means that there will be less resistance. And it supports the claim that everyone in Ukraine who stayed is there to fight, which means there are no "civilian" casualties.
posted by meowzilla at 4:32 PM on March 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm sorry but not to be culturist of tempuraturist, but even the toughest fighters from the middle east in the Ukrainian cold? LO-fucking ship-L the various commentaries that putin has lost already just keep seeming more reasonable. Syrians in a freezing unfamiliar city.
Deserts get cold at night. Layering is not a mystery to desert people.
posted by nestor_makhno at 4:40 PM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
Deserts get cold at night. Layering is not a mystery to desert people.
posted by nestor_makhno at 4:40 PM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
I just realized the stalled Russian Invasion Convoy is this years Evergiven.
posted by srboisvert at 5:06 PM on March 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 5:06 PM on March 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
BIMCO: Ukraine War Will Slow Growth, Hurting All Shipping, The Maritime Executive, Mar 7, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 8:37 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
While much of the focus to date has been on the near-term impact to the tanker and bulker markets from Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, shipowners’ association BIMCO [Wikipedia] is looking toward the wider analysis indicating that it sees the potential for sustained spill-over impacting the global economy and all sectors of the shipping industry.More details in the article, including the effects of rising costs on non-sanctioned Russian oil exports.
While saying that the full impact of the war is likely a ways off, BIMCO is looking at the impact on consumer confidence and the global economy pointing out despite longer-term contracts having already been set for 2022, that the war will likely lower growth prospects and be the factor to finally reduce demand after a year and a half surge in volumes related to the pandemic.
“The National Institute of Economic Research in the UK has estimated that the war could reduce global GDP growth by as much as one percentage point,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. “No matter the specific Russia and Ukraine export developments, this will hurt growth projections for all shipping sectors.”
Near-term the obvious impact has been on shipping from the Black Sea region, where Ukraine and Russia export a broad range of commodities. Rasmussen points out that the two countries combined hold a global market share of more than 10 percent within coal, wheat, and maize.
Of particular concern to global supply, he says is the export of wheat and maize, which is mainly loaded in the Black Sea. “It is difficult to imagine that what is left of Ukraine’s 2021 harvest will be shipped any time soon and, depending on developments, the 2022 harvest may also be hit,” says Rasmussen…
posted by cenoxo at 8:37 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Underwriters said to be refusing cover for Ukraine war risks – Additional premiums now running as high as 5% of vessel value for those able to secure cover amid sanctions and mounting violence, with reports MGAs have been told not to offer terms, David Osler, InsuranceDay, 04 Mar 2022:
War risk insurers are said to be getting cold feet over the potential impact of sanctions and are declining to quote on calls at Russian ports in areas affected by fighting. Some are asking for huge additional premiums where they are willing to write cover at all, according to market sources.posted by cenoxo at 9:58 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
The reaction to the hostilities in Ukraine has left some underwriters uneasy, with one senior figure accusing some in the sector of leaving clients “high and dry” where they already have a ship in the region. Ukrainian ports remain closed by decree of the country’s maritime authorities in light of the Russian invasion and explicit Russian threats to attack merchant shipping.
There is a wide range of pricing for calls to Russian ports in proximity to the conflict, with additional premiums ranging from the standard 0.25% of hull value to as much as 5%. At the upper end of that spectrum, the additional premiums might equate to six- or even seven-figure hits for every voyage, depending on the value of the hull. By way of comparison, additional premiums of 0.8% levied following the seizure of British-registered Stena Impero by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 2019 were widely condemned at the time as excessively high.
The latest developments come after the London-based Joint War Committee last month designated Russian and Ukrainian waters in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as listed areas, for which additional premiums are charged. The UK-based Warlike Operations Area Committee has declared a Warlike Operations Area with immediate effect for all Ukrainian, Russian and international waters north of 44°N in the Black Sea….
Layering is not a mystery to desert people.
I'm not totally sure that Syria gets much prolonged snow and ice, but I would likely not pass the CIA exams, in any case.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:05 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not totally sure that Syria gets much prolonged snow and ice, but I would likely not pass the CIA exams, in any case.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:05 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russians/Ukrainians are 15% of seafarers; safety concerns all – Nearly 1.9 million seafarers are currently operating over 74,000 vessels in the global merchant fleet, Indian Transport & Logistics News, Jyothi Shankaran, 7 March 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 10:34 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
With the RussiaUkraineConflict showing no signs of easing and all focus on humanitarian logistics and aid, one key component of the supply chain - as usual - is being ignored and they are the seafarers.More in the article.
Nearly 1.9 million seafarers are currently operating over 74,000 vessels in the global merchant fleet, according to the Seafarer Workforce Report published in 2021 by BIMCO [Wikipedia] and International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) [Wikipedia].
Of this total workforce, 198,123 (10.5 percent) of seafarers are Russian of which 71,652 are officers and 126,471 are ratings. Ukraine accounts for 76,442 (4 percent) of seafarers of which 47,058 are officers and 29,383 are ratings. Combined they represent 14.5 percent of the global workforce.
…
Guy Platten, Secretary General, ICS, added: "To maintain this unfettered trade, seafarers must be able to join and disembark ships (crew change) freely across the world. With flights cancelled in the region, this will become increasingly difficult. The ability to pay seafarers also needs to be maintained via international banking systems. The safety of our seafarers is our absolute priority. We call on all parties to ensure that seafarers do not become the collateral damage in any actions that governments or others may take.”…
posted by cenoxo at 10:34 PM on March 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
The weather-readiness of hypothetical Syrian fighters seems like a relatively minor issue when compared to recruiting soldiers from another country to bolster your invasion of another another country a week and a half after the fight has started, as if it's 2 weeks into the baseball season and one of your starters strained their arm so you go to yr farm teams and the market to see what you can do to help the rest of our season.
posted by wemayfreeze at 10:53 PM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by wemayfreeze at 10:53 PM on March 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
I can think of a couple of reasons for Russia to be recruiting internationally, but none of them are especially good.
The first reason is: they're literally that short on trained manpower. Maybe the Russian military really is a hollowed-out shell, and what's currently in Ukraine represents most of their functioning combat power. They'd need warm bodies who know how to operate Soviet-era weapons and fast, just to keep the charade going.
Perhaps a more plausible story is, the Russian leadership has decided that dead Syrians matter less than dead Russians to the Russian public, and are trying to make the war more palatable by using mercenaries. This has some interesting implications: one, that the Russian leadership cares about the perception of the war by the public and doesn't have total "truth control", and two, it means they're going to be spending hard currency—mercenaries aren't cheap, historically, and they prefer to be paid in something they can spend back home. (This would create a nice opportunity for NATO/Euro countries to respond economically, by just outbidding Russia in the Syrian mercenary market. For a lot less than a drone strike, I bet you can get most would-be mercenaries to go to Bora Bora for a few weeks instead.)
There is of course the third and most grim option, which is that someone on the Russian side is setting up an Einsatzgruppen to do some deniable war crimes.
posted by Kadin2048 at 1:01 AM on March 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
The first reason is: they're literally that short on trained manpower. Maybe the Russian military really is a hollowed-out shell, and what's currently in Ukraine represents most of their functioning combat power. They'd need warm bodies who know how to operate Soviet-era weapons and fast, just to keep the charade going.
Perhaps a more plausible story is, the Russian leadership has decided that dead Syrians matter less than dead Russians to the Russian public, and are trying to make the war more palatable by using mercenaries. This has some interesting implications: one, that the Russian leadership cares about the perception of the war by the public and doesn't have total "truth control", and two, it means they're going to be spending hard currency—mercenaries aren't cheap, historically, and they prefer to be paid in something they can spend back home. (This would create a nice opportunity for NATO/Euro countries to respond economically, by just outbidding Russia in the Syrian mercenary market. For a lot less than a drone strike, I bet you can get most would-be mercenaries to go to Bora Bora for a few weeks instead.)
There is of course the third and most grim option, which is that someone on the Russian side is setting up an Einsatzgruppen to do some deniable war crimes.
posted by Kadin2048 at 1:01 AM on March 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
I can think of a couple of reasons for Russia to be recruiting internationally, but none of them are especially good.
Fourth option you missed: they're running out of conscripts and want to keep their well-trained troops in reserve, so start looking elsewhere.
posted by mightygodking at 7:56 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Fourth option you missed: they're running out of conscripts and want to keep their well-trained troops in reserve, so start looking elsewhere.
posted by mightygodking at 7:56 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
There is of course the third and most grim option, which is that someone on the Russian side is setting up an Einsatzgruppen to do some deniable war crimes.
This is kinda the Russian political-military stock in trade. I would suggest it's not about deniability, though. If they were going that route they'd just claim that 190,000 dudes were just there to look at an old 15th century church (before it spontaneously caught fire).
More likely the idea and the threat of Syrians is like the Hessians back in WW(negative)1
a) they are less likely to identify with the country they are invading, and hence do war crimes.
b) they will be perceived as not identifying with the country they are invading, and hence being other capable of all the terrible things.
posted by Buntix at 8:26 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is kinda the Russian political-military stock in trade. I would suggest it's not about deniability, though. If they were going that route they'd just claim that 190,000 dudes were just there to look at an old 15th century church (before it spontaneously caught fire).
More likely the idea and the threat of Syrians is like the Hessians back in WW(negative)1
a) they are less likely to identify with the country they are invading, and hence do war crimes.
b) they will be perceived as not identifying with the country they are invading, and hence being other capable of all the terrible things.
posted by Buntix at 8:26 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports, Kaitlan Collins, Jeremy Diamond, Kevin Liptak, Phil Mattingly and Kate Sullivan, CNN, Updated 11:39 AM EST, Tue March 08, 2022:
President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced his administration is banning Russian oil, natural gas and coal imports to the US in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.posted by cenoxo at 8:57 AM on March 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
"Today I am announcing the United States is targeting the main artery of Russia's economy. We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy," Biden said in remarks from the White House. "That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at US ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine."
The US will make the move unilaterally, without its European allies, due to disagreement among European nations about whether to ban Russian energy imports. EU countries have significantly more exposure to Russian energy than the US….
Livestream (now a recording) of Biden's remarks concerning the Russian energy import ban.
It doesn't seem like this is likely to hurt Russia that meaningfully, since the US doesn't make up a very large percentage of Russia's exports (nor of US imports). However, it could affect gas prices, which seem to be only loosely coupled to reality through the sloppy mechanism of market dynamics.
Towards the end of his prepared remarks, I thought Biden sounded pretty defensive, which is understandable... but not a great look. I think he figures (rightly) that the Republicans are going to try and fuck him later on the gas prices thing, even though they're pushing for the ban right now.
And based on some YouTube comments, it appears that "open the pipeline!" is the new forced meme on the rightwing side of the infosphere. It's not even clear which pipeline they mean, just that there's some theoretical pipeline that Biden just needs to "open" to restore cheap gas. Feels like astroturfing by pro-KeystoneXL / tar sands interests. Ugh, what the fuck; can't they put the evil on pause for one goddamn second?
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:05 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
It doesn't seem like this is likely to hurt Russia that meaningfully, since the US doesn't make up a very large percentage of Russia's exports (nor of US imports). However, it could affect gas prices, which seem to be only loosely coupled to reality through the sloppy mechanism of market dynamics.
Towards the end of his prepared remarks, I thought Biden sounded pretty defensive, which is understandable... but not a great look. I think he figures (rightly) that the Republicans are going to try and fuck him later on the gas prices thing, even though they're pushing for the ban right now.
And based on some YouTube comments, it appears that "open the pipeline!" is the new forced meme on the rightwing side of the infosphere. It's not even clear which pipeline they mean, just that there's some theoretical pipeline that Biden just needs to "open" to restore cheap gas. Feels like astroturfing by pro-KeystoneXL / tar sands interests. Ugh, what the fuck; can't they put the evil on pause for one goddamn second?
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:05 AM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think he figures (rightly) that the Republicans are going to try and fuck him later on the gas prices thing, even though they're pushing for the ban right now.
He is absolutely walking into a trap. This is real Charlie Brown and the football stuff.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:08 AM on March 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
He is absolutely walking into a trap. This is real Charlie Brown and the football stuff.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:08 AM on March 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
The trick, of course, is that yes, US consumption has little effect, but the rest of the world choosing not to consume Russian oil will have a big effect on prices. (supply down, demand roughly the same.) Prices are going up regardless of what Biden does here...
posted by kaibutsu at 11:14 AM on March 8, 2022
posted by kaibutsu at 11:14 AM on March 8, 2022
I think he figures (rightly) that the Republicans are going to try and fuck him later on the gas prices thing, even though they're pushing for the ban right now.
He is absolutely walking into a trap. This is real Charlie Brown and the football stuff.
The so-called "liberal media" could at least be objective and make clear that the inevitable Republican attacks are cynically hypocritical, as they'd be blasting Biden for doing something they demanded. But they probably won't.
posted by Gelatin at 11:18 AM on March 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
He is absolutely walking into a trap. This is real Charlie Brown and the football stuff.
The so-called "liberal media" could at least be objective and make clear that the inevitable Republican attacks are cynically hypocritical, as they'd be blasting Biden for doing something they demanded. But they probably won't.
posted by Gelatin at 11:18 AM on March 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
The so-called "liberal media" could at least be objective and make clear that the inevitable Republican attacks are cynically hypocritical, as they'd be blasting Biden for doing something they demanded. But they probably won't.
It would be irrelevant, since their base doesn't consume it, anyway, Fox et al push only the most current talking points, and the majority of GOP voters have short memories and a bottomless tolerance for cognitive dissonance.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:41 AM on March 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
It would be irrelevant, since their base doesn't consume it, anyway, Fox et al push only the most current talking points, and the majority of GOP voters have short memories and a bottomless tolerance for cognitive dissonance.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:41 AM on March 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
But the mainstream media will transmit bad faith Republican attacks (but I repeat myself) without the context that shows they are made in bad faith, thus lending the attacks false legitimacy to the mainstream media's Democratic and independent consumers. At best they'll adopt the "he said/she said" dodge that conveys objective facts -- that is, Republicans demanded Biden take this action -- as if they're opinion attributable to Democrats.
And the Republicans can, will, and do count on them to do so even as they attack the media as "biased" and "liberal." Feh.
posted by Gelatin at 11:50 AM on March 8, 2022
And the Republicans can, will, and do count on them to do so even as they attack the media as "biased" and "liberal." Feh.
posted by Gelatin at 11:50 AM on March 8, 2022
Can we please not make this into a US politics thread? Thanks!
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:53 AM on March 8, 2022 [40 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:53 AM on March 8, 2022 [40 favorites]
The Russian Sanctions Regime and the Risk of Catastrophic Success, Erik Sand and Suzanne Freeman, War on the Rocks, March 8, 2022. (As a historic precedent, the article begins with a brief example of American sanctions against Japan in WWII, but let’s not go there.) The main question the article asks is:
posted by cenoxo at 2:58 PM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
What if the sanctions work — that is, they make life in Russia intolerable or undermine Russia’s ability to continue the war? That could force Russia to the negotiating table. But it could also have the opposite effect. Western policymakers are right to be concerned about an escalation with Russia leading to a general European war, but they seem focused almost exclusively on avoiding escalatory military options and managing the close proximity of NATO and Russian forces. Sanctions too can lead to war, or at least to riskier Russian strategies that court war. A desperate Vladimir Putin could escalate the war in a gamble for resurrection.The article goes on to discuss Sanctions Thus Far, Economic Isolation Can Lead to Risky Strategies, Paths to Escalation, Potential Russian Moves, and How to Respond.
posted by cenoxo at 2:58 PM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Saudis and UAE aren't taking Biden's calls
Making up Russia's gas supplies isn't going to be that easy... hence the sudden talks with Maduro who might turn out to be the President of Venezuela after all (sorry Guaido, you're not needed anymore)
posted by moorooka at 11:16 PM on March 8, 2022
Making up Russia's gas supplies isn't going to be that easy... hence the sudden talks with Maduro who might turn out to be the President of Venezuela after all (sorry Guaido, you're not needed anymore)
posted by moorooka at 11:16 PM on March 8, 2022
Russia ‘solving logistics problems’ and could attack Kyiv within days
One of the think tanks quoted by the Guardian, Institute for the Study of War
One of the think tanks quoted by the Guardian, Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area in the west and the Brovary area in the east;posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:24 PM on March 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;
Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa combined with an impending amphibious operation against that city; and
Russian forces are also driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
To this point Russian logistics have been the Unique and Magical Metal Windmill ads of the real world. Everybody's seen one, many have ordered from one but so far no one has ever gotten their windmill.
posted by y2karl at 1:07 PM on March 10, 2022
posted by y2karl at 1:07 PM on March 10, 2022
I’m extremely pessimistic about what the days ahead seem to look like. Russia will continue to squeeze, civilian casualties will continue to rise, the Ukrainian army will be pushed back and will face the loss of more territory. In places the Russians have occupied they are putting their occupation administrators in place and rounding up dissidents.
Those watching from Europe and America will grow frustrated and there will be growing pressure to do more. Biden had so far muted the response and tried to be measured and proportional to the actual security risks to the US. I don’t know how long he will be able to resist the calls for a more aggressive response to Russia. European leaders will feel even more acute pressure. The refugee crisis, the next wave of Covid, and fear of Russia moving beyond Ukraien are going to put people in a fighting mood.
posted by interogative mood at 10:47 AM on March 13, 2022
Those watching from Europe and America will grow frustrated and there will be growing pressure to do more. Biden had so far muted the response and tried to be measured and proportional to the actual security risks to the US. I don’t know how long he will be able to resist the calls for a more aggressive response to Russia. European leaders will feel even more acute pressure. The refugee crisis, the next wave of Covid, and fear of Russia moving beyond Ukraien are going to put people in a fighting mood.
posted by interogative mood at 10:47 AM on March 13, 2022
"not so much Russia. Not so much Germany. But the lands between Berlin and Moscow."
Timothy Snyder: "Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin"
a harrowing history lesson for those who may have missed it along the way. Ukraine being a significant chunk of the real estate in question.
a longer option: Timothy Snyder Discusses "Bloodlands" at The Ukrainian Museum of Modern Art
the whole bloody book in 11 hrs, 42 minutes
posted by philip-random at 8:42 AM on March 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Timothy Snyder: "Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin"
a harrowing history lesson for those who may have missed it along the way. Ukraine being a significant chunk of the real estate in question.
a longer option: Timothy Snyder Discusses "Bloodlands" at The Ukrainian Museum of Modern Art
the whole bloody book in 11 hrs, 42 minutes
posted by philip-random at 8:42 AM on March 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
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