Ukraine: Perhaps the end of the beginning
April 6, 2022 3:00 PM Subscribe
It is time for another Ukraine thread. The battle of Kyiv has ended with a victory for Ukraine. The retreating Russian army left behind evidence of war crimes and genocide, and their trenches dug into the radioactive soils near Chornobyl. Russia has shifted its focus to conquering the remainder of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The West continues to announce more sanctions and send more weapons while China, India and others remain undecided on how to respond.
Note: I have tried to use Ukrainian spelling for place names in Ukraine for Kyiv, Donbas and Chornobyl instead of Russian ones.
Note: I have tried to use Ukrainian spelling for place names in Ukraine for Kyiv, Donbas and Chornobyl instead of Russian ones.
Note for iOS users: click the time stamp of the last comment read before leaving the page (that should set the yellow triangle.) Then if your device drops you at the top here, click in the address bar and hit return (not refresh). It may take a couple seconds but it will find your place.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
This war is literally incomprehensible now. Is Putin, reputed to be smart, just covering his own ass? So many people displaced, so much suffering, and for what? I come back to that again and again. FOR WHAT? So a small man can declare "victory"? Putin is seriously messed up, y'all.
posted by SPrintF at 3:18 PM on April 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 3:18 PM on April 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
US has trained some Ukrainians on Switchblade drones before providing more to the fight. I don’t think it’s enough, but I am glad we are increasing military support after Bucha.
posted by corb at 3:22 PM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by corb at 3:22 PM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
Isn't it the case that (a) Switchblade drones are single-use loitering munitions, and (b) the US is only giving Ukraine 10 of them? If so, that seems slightly ridiculous.
posted by acb at 3:26 PM on April 6, 2022
posted by acb at 3:26 PM on April 6, 2022
Ukrainian refugees may be able to change a limited amount of their cash in hryvnia into local currency across Europe, if a proposed scheme is implemented. This mirrors an existing scheme set up by Poland's national bank, as mentioned in the last thread.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 3:30 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Busy Old Fool at 3:30 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
> that seems slightly ridiculous
misdirection is sometimes necessary for both enemies and allies
posted by glonous keming at 3:36 PM on April 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
misdirection is sometimes necessary for both enemies and allies
posted by glonous keming at 3:36 PM on April 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
Isn't it the case that (a) Switchblade drones are single-use loitering munitions, and (b) the US is only giving Ukraine 10 of them? If so, that seems slightly ridiculous.
I think them being single use is a bit of a red-herring. The cost of a Swtichblade is $6000. Without the cost of the Reaper platform, the Hellfire alone is $150k. From a price comparison it probably puts it more in the Javelin territory though that alone is still a magnitude higher at $78k (without the Javelin unit cost itself). Keep in mind that simply rendering a tank inoperable is enough, a complete kill isn't needed. A tank that can't effectively operate its turret is not mission capable.
and their trenches dug into the radioactive soils near Chornobyl
Everyone is mocking soldiers on this and to be fair, how many of us know safety protocols for literally the only radioactive disaster of its type? Let alone teenagers and soldiers in their early 20s. They're sent into Chernobyl either ignorant of what happened or by commanders who told them it is fine. They see a giant containment building and workers in the other reactors. So it is not a stretch of the imagination to think that any contamination is no longer dangerous, even assuming they weren't lied to. By all accounts the forest has regenerated and there's wildlife there, there aren't Fallout mutant creatures roaming a barren wasteland.
posted by geoff. at 4:04 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
I think them being single use is a bit of a red-herring. The cost of a Swtichblade is $6000. Without the cost of the Reaper platform, the Hellfire alone is $150k. From a price comparison it probably puts it more in the Javelin territory though that alone is still a magnitude higher at $78k (without the Javelin unit cost itself). Keep in mind that simply rendering a tank inoperable is enough, a complete kill isn't needed. A tank that can't effectively operate its turret is not mission capable.
and their trenches dug into the radioactive soils near Chornobyl
Everyone is mocking soldiers on this and to be fair, how many of us know safety protocols for literally the only radioactive disaster of its type? Let alone teenagers and soldiers in their early 20s. They're sent into Chernobyl either ignorant of what happened or by commanders who told them it is fine. They see a giant containment building and workers in the other reactors. So it is not a stretch of the imagination to think that any contamination is no longer dangerous, even assuming they weren't lied to. By all accounts the forest has regenerated and there's wildlife there, there aren't Fallout mutant creatures roaming a barren wasteland.
posted by geoff. at 4:04 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
There US sent 100 Av300 Switchblades as a test; but the expectation is that more are coming, assuming the Ukrainians can make good use of them. The US announced in the last couple of days that they are sending the bigger Av600 models that carry javalin missiles.
There is an open question in the milbloggers / forums about what the administration meant by 100 units. The Av300 can be carried in a backpack and launched from a handheld launcher but the army also deploys these in a box that can remotely fire up to 6 drones. Because of the way the army describes these weapons it is unclear to if we sent 100 launchers and 600 drones or just 100 drones.
Is should he noted that when the US sends aid to a war zone like this we have learned to send them as they get used and not oversupply as this leads to increased selling of devices on the black market and leftovers once the conflict is over. This was problem with Stinger missile systems sent to Afghanistan in the 1980s to fight the Soviets, and more recently with guns and arms provided to the Afghan And Iraqi armies during US occupations of those countries. The guns and ammo we sent to the Afghan army were getting sold for years to the Taliban to then be fired ar US soldiers.
posted by interogative mood at 4:07 PM on April 6, 2022 [31 favorites]
There is an open question in the milbloggers / forums about what the administration meant by 100 units. The Av300 can be carried in a backpack and launched from a handheld launcher but the army also deploys these in a box that can remotely fire up to 6 drones. Because of the way the army describes these weapons it is unclear to if we sent 100 launchers and 600 drones or just 100 drones.
Is should he noted that when the US sends aid to a war zone like this we have learned to send them as they get used and not oversupply as this leads to increased selling of devices on the black market and leftovers once the conflict is over. This was problem with Stinger missile systems sent to Afghanistan in the 1980s to fight the Soviets, and more recently with guns and arms provided to the Afghan And Iraqi armies during US occupations of those countries. The guns and ammo we sent to the Afghan army were getting sold for years to the Taliban to then be fired ar US soldiers.
posted by interogative mood at 4:07 PM on April 6, 2022 [31 favorites]
Isn't it the case that (a) Switchblade drones are single-use loitering munitions, and (b) the US is only giving Ukraine 10 of them?
a) Yes, but we're also giving them Pumas, which will do the real loitering (hours) and target acquisition. Forbes:
b) We're giving ten systems, each with ten missiles. Another batch is to follow. We also need to train the operators, which is being done in the US.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
a) Yes, but we're also giving them Pumas, which will do the real loitering (hours) and target acquisition. Forbes:
An additional and perhaps equally great benefit is that the Puma can act as an airborne communication relay. Normally the Switchblade is limited to a range of about six kilometers, a limitation imposed by control distance; with a flight time of over fifteen minutes and a cruising speed of over 60 mph, it can in principle hit far more distant targets. All it needs is great communications range, which Puma could provide.
b) We're giving ten systems, each with ten missiles. Another batch is to follow. We also need to train the operators, which is being done in the US.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
I wish I could feel better about the Russians backing out of Kyiv. I just don’t trust Putin for the withdrawal not to be more of a “get the troops out of harms way so we can do something horrific” move than an actual retreat.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 4:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
Historically, militaries operate with little regard for environmental costs (see Iraq and depleted uranium munitions for a recent example). With the climate crisis, however, I do wonder if the real costs will come, once contaminated forests start burning at greater rates, spreading radioactive ash across much of Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Whatever Russia tells any soldiers sickened by its attack on Ukraine, radioactive contamination is effectively a sunk cost for them. Certainly, it seems exceedingly unlikely that Putin will be held to account for this radiological war crime, much less any oligarch, given the current tepid response to laying mines, murdering civilians, and other actions in clear violation of Geneva Conventions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:11 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:11 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
I wish I could feel better about the Russians backing out of Kyiv. I just don’t trust Putin for the withdrawal not to be more of a “get the troops out of harms way so we can do something horrific” move than an actual retreat.
My comment would be that it can be both.
I think it's obvious that they wanted to take Kyiv and topple the government. So it's definitely an actual retreat. I believe there is even solid evidence it was not always a retreat in good order. The Russians attacked, were defeated, failed to achieve their goals, and retreated. It's not some 10-dimensional chess from Putin (although a few apologists have claimed otherwise.)
But retreating will free up troops and supplies for other horrible things, absolutely. If anyone is claiming the retreat was a gesture of good will to reduce the scope of the war (something I haven't seen), that would be a sign of bad faith or profound ignorance.
posted by mark k at 4:14 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
My comment would be that it can be both.
I think it's obvious that they wanted to take Kyiv and topple the government. So it's definitely an actual retreat. I believe there is even solid evidence it was not always a retreat in good order. The Russians attacked, were defeated, failed to achieve their goals, and retreated. It's not some 10-dimensional chess from Putin (although a few apologists have claimed otherwise.)
But retreating will free up troops and supplies for other horrible things, absolutely. If anyone is claiming the retreat was a gesture of good will to reduce the scope of the war (something I haven't seen), that would be a sign of bad faith or profound ignorance.
posted by mark k at 4:14 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
It has apparently dawned on Vlad that his military, its leadership and capabilities are not as advertised. Hence, he has set the more modest goal of linking Donbas with Crimea. Should Ukraine be able to thwart that, then it's pretty much THANK YOU FOR PLAYING. I would imagine Ukraine's goal is to is to run every last Ruskie out of Ukraine. And if accomplished I would also imagine an immediate emergency NATO membership will be waiting for them...
posted by jim in austin at 4:14 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by jim in austin at 4:14 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Normally the Switchblade is limited to a range of about six kilometers, a limitation imposed by control distance; with a flight time of over fifteen minutes and a cruising speed of over 60 mphWay to mix up the units there, Forbes, that’ll keep the Russkies guessing!
posted by nicwolff at 4:22 PM on April 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
Business Insider reports that China is holding off on buying new supplies of Russia oil, even with discounts. My guess is that they know oil prices are high right now and those discounts are only going to get better the longer this drags on and the more Russia loses access to Europe. Also given the state of Russian oil infrastructure, Russia will lose a lot of its capacity in the next 24 months. One report I read suggested their production will fall off a cliff without western oil field equipment; and they could quickly find themselves on the import side of the oil supply chain.
posted by interogative mood at 4:24 PM on April 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:24 PM on April 6, 2022 [13 favorites]
China's best bet is to wait for a complete collapse of the Russian oil industry, then take it over for cents on the dollar (ruple).
posted by geoff. at 4:35 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by geoff. at 4:35 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
This war is literally incomprehensible now. Is Putin, reputed to be smart, just covering his own ass? So many people displaced, so much suffering, and for what? I come back to that again and again. FOR WHAT?
It's easier to comprehend if you take it as axiomatic that Putin is at best indifferent to Ukraine's suffering. Really, he is probably all for maximal suffering because he thinks it helps him achieve whatever his goals are at the moment.
Covering your own ass is a full-time job for a dictator, if you stop doing that you might find yourself out of a job, and ex-dictators don't tend to have peaceful retirements.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:02 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
It's easier to comprehend if you take it as axiomatic that Putin is at best indifferent to Ukraine's suffering. Really, he is probably all for maximal suffering because he thinks it helps him achieve whatever his goals are at the moment.
Covering your own ass is a full-time job for a dictator, if you stop doing that you might find yourself out of a job, and ex-dictators don't tend to have peaceful retirements.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:02 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
U.S. Says It Secretly Removed Malware Worldwide, Pre-empting Russian Cyberattacks
Appears to be from a similar playbook as "spill the beans what they're about to do before they do it" which has been an impressively candid use of intelligence info.
posted by tclark at 5:16 PM on April 6, 2022 [38 favorites]
Appears to be from a similar playbook as "spill the beans what they're about to do before they do it" which has been an impressively candid use of intelligence info.
posted by tclark at 5:16 PM on April 6, 2022 [38 favorites]
> Note for iOS users: click the time stamp of the last comment read before leaving the page (that should set the yellow triangle.) Then if your device drops you at the top here, click in the address bar and hit return (not refresh). It may take a couple seconds but it will find your place.
Assuming someone doesn't delete the comment and render your anchor link useless, leaving you adrift in the middle of a megathread :(
posted by genpfault at 5:42 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Assuming someone doesn't delete the comment and render your anchor link useless, leaving you adrift in the middle of a megathread :(
posted by genpfault at 5:42 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
A thread from Kamil Galeev (who’s been getting linked a lot in these threads) that I found particularly illuminating:
Why Russian army is so weak?
When Russia invaded, experts thought it'd win in 24-72 hours. Two weeks later the war's still going. How come? On paper Russian superiority's overwhelming
Although Russia projects warlike image, its military r weak and don't know how to fight wars
Specifically, it’s geared for a different kind of war, and infantry has been systematically weakened and humiliated.
posted by Quasirandom at 5:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Why Russian army is so weak?
When Russia invaded, experts thought it'd win in 24-72 hours. Two weeks later the war's still going. How come? On paper Russian superiority's overwhelming
Although Russia projects warlike image, its military r weak and don't know how to fight wars
Specifically, it’s geared for a different kind of war, and infantry has been systematically weakened and humiliated.
posted by Quasirandom at 5:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
China would love nothing more than for Russia to be greatly weakened and at least partially dependent on Beijing for support. China has their own issues right now, but this is a golden opportunity for them, and a chance to secure the nearly bottomless need for minerals and oil that they have.
posted by bonehead at 6:00 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by bonehead at 6:00 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Turns out that when you design a military that can't overthrow your own regime, it isn't very good at overthrowing anybody else's, either.
posted by notoriety public at 6:02 PM on April 6, 2022 [77 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 6:02 PM on April 6, 2022 [77 favorites]
Appears to be from a similar playbook as "spill the beans what they're about to do before they do it" which has been an impressively candid use of intelligence info.
I agree. I wonder what all the people who 6 weeks ago were screaming "this is just western war mongering" are saying now.
posted by nestor_makhno at 6:04 PM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
This interview with the writer Masha Gessen, the author of The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia, is an interesting read and counterpoint to a lot of other current analysis: Is this how Russia ends?
posted by vers at 6:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by vers at 6:08 PM on April 6, 2022 [22 favorites]
I wonder what all the people who 6 weeks ago were screaming "this is just western war mongering" are saying now.
They've moved onto other BS. Like: "Why is the U.S./NATO escalating this war? Violence is not the answer! The Ukrainians should make a peace deal now!"
And some of them in Greece are allegedly blocking trains carrying NATO arms shipments to Ukraine.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:28 PM on April 6, 2022 [20 favorites]
They've moved onto other BS. Like: "Why is the U.S./NATO escalating this war? Violence is not the answer! The Ukrainians should make a peace deal now!"
And some of them in Greece are allegedly blocking trains carrying NATO arms shipments to Ukraine.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:28 PM on April 6, 2022 [20 favorites]
I fear this war has set the stage for a generation at least. This is a 9-11 scale event and we’ll be dealing with the consequences for at least 20 years. It’s possible this war could end up in a stalemated situation like the Iran / Iraq war for the next decade before some kind of peace agreement is found.
I suspect before it is over Russia will lose its empire in eastern and Central Asia. There will be some surviving reduced Russia around Moscow and St Petersburg and a lot of new countries arising. It’s a bit terrifying because it could easily turn into Yugoslavia on a massive scale.
Most of Russia’s soldiers in Ukraine are not ethnic Russians. What happens when they go home after seeing what happened in Ukraine. Are they going to go back to their second class status?
posted by interogative mood at 6:29 PM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
I suspect before it is over Russia will lose its empire in eastern and Central Asia. There will be some surviving reduced Russia around Moscow and St Petersburg and a lot of new countries arising. It’s a bit terrifying because it could easily turn into Yugoslavia on a massive scale.
Most of Russia’s soldiers in Ukraine are not ethnic Russians. What happens when they go home after seeing what happened in Ukraine. Are they going to go back to their second class status?
posted by interogative mood at 6:29 PM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
The biggest problem with any potential breakup of the Russian Federation is that the USSR sent ethnic Russians to every corner of the empire specifically for this sort of contingency. In a lot of places, especially in Siberia or the Far East, they still form the overwhelming majority. Siberia is 85% ethnic Russian, the Far Eastern Federal District ethnic Russians are over three quarters of the population. This can be problematic when either trying to breakaway from Russian control or post-independence where those same pluralistic Russian elements form separatist movements backed by Russia.
That's not to say it's not continually in the back of the mind of every ruling class Russian. It's very much one of their concerns given that those regions are treated like absolute shit compared to how much wealth they generate for Russia. Look at how hard the Russian ruling class clamped down on Loskutov when he did his performance art on Siberian Federalization despite there being no public support and no overt acts from anyone else but him towards that arrangement.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:17 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
That's not to say it's not continually in the back of the mind of every ruling class Russian. It's very much one of their concerns given that those regions are treated like absolute shit compared to how much wealth they generate for Russia. Look at how hard the Russian ruling class clamped down on Loskutov when he did his performance art on Siberian Federalization despite there being no public support and no overt acts from anyone else but him towards that arrangement.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:17 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
FOR WHAT? So a small man can declare "victory"? Putin is seriously messed up, y'all.
I don't disagree, but there is possibly also a more prosaic reason - natural gas. Nord Stream 2 was built on the presumption of selling more natural gas to the EU, without having to pay billions more to Ukraine in transit fees, given the vast majority of current Russian gas exports go via the Ukrainian pipelines; Ukraine itself also imports significant gas from Russia. Merkel deliberately persued expanded trade with Russia in order to try and bind them to the rules-based order; given the original formation of the EEC (and eventually EU) was founded to do exactly that between Germany and France to make war unthinkable, she presumably thought the same thing would work with Russia; plenty of other German politicians thought the same way. It's also true that the Ukrainian pipeline network is old and leaks badly, leading to additional climate change impact without modernisation.
Ukraine has huge untapped reserves of natural gas and oil. If developed and the infrastrcture modernised, Ukraine could not only become self-sufficient, but export substantially to the EU; excluding Russia's asian reserves, Ukraine contains the 2nd largest known reserves in Europe, only behind Norway. Notably, most of those reserves lie in the Donbas basin.
With a western, instead of eastern facing leader in Ukraine (due to the 2014 revolution) those reserves could pose a huge threat to Russian oil and gas exports to Europe post Covid, Russia's largest export and a critical one. The EU has become increasingly reliant on gas as their bridge from coal to renewables, especially as nuclear plants are shut down in Germany, and oil as an alternative to the middle east. Hence, possibly, contributing to the instigation of the rebellion in the (somewhat pro-russian) donbas region directly after the Maiden revolution in 2014. Sevastopol in the Crimea is also the Russian black sea naval base, and has long been a sore point that it was in Ukrainian territory. Russia has propped up the rebels in the donbas region several times, and their unofficial military 'volunteers' basically are why that conflict has been unresolved for 8 years.
So, putting aside all the other things, such as Putin's apparent belief that Ukraine isn't a real country and is really just part of Russia and it's about time it realises it, as well as that Zelenskiy is just a US puppet, there's the attraction of a manufactured quick war to depose Zelenskiy and impose a Russian sympathiser, secure the Donbas region, his allies/useful idiots there and its huge gas & oil reserves, and gain a land bridge to occupied Crimea (which also has been struggling since Ukraine cut the water supply; one of the first things Russia did in that area was blow up the blocking dam). Russia wants both areas officially handed over by Ukraine.
Now though? Toppling Zelenskiy has failed, at huge cost in Russian men and materiel, but the other objectives are still in play. Plus Putin has long thought the west as soft, short-sighted and willing to appease strongmen. With the massive and unopposed propaganda fooling the vast majority of the Russian population into thinking Russia is acting in self-defence, and those civilian casualties are just western lies and ukrainian false-flag operations, and the draconian totalitarian crackdown on dissent and any opposing voices, plus all the oligarchs dependent upon him for their wealth, Putin doesn't fear any Russian opposition.
Once Mariupol is taken, if the war ends soon as a ceasefire with Russia occupying current Ukrainian territory, they are in a much stronger territorial position with control of much of the Ukrainian coast, which incidentally also degrades their wheat exports to Africa (another major Russian export). Give it a couple of years, I suspect the thinking goes, Trump wins in 2024, the western coalition and sanctions fall apart, and the powerless EU goes back to quietly buying Russian gas for at least another decade, while Russia gets to keep a chunk of Russian-speaking Ukraine. I do think he has massively underestimated Ukrainian resolve and willingness to withstand Russian terror tactics that worked in Syria and Chechnya though.
To stop that, the west needs to ratchet up sanctions to starve the Russian military, and really up the help to Ukraine with the resources to actually push back on defended territory in the south east. And for real pressure to force Russia out of Ukraine non-militarily, cut off the natural gas profits altogether, not just Nord Stream 2; though the last is politically unpalatable to Germany and much of eastern Europe given the massive impact that would have directly, and indirectly on worldwide nat gas prices, as well as the Orban blocking problem. The EU has spent 35 times as much on fossil fuel exports from Russia than it has given Ukraine in military aid since the war started.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:34 PM on April 6, 2022 [74 favorites]
I don't disagree, but there is possibly also a more prosaic reason - natural gas. Nord Stream 2 was built on the presumption of selling more natural gas to the EU, without having to pay billions more to Ukraine in transit fees, given the vast majority of current Russian gas exports go via the Ukrainian pipelines; Ukraine itself also imports significant gas from Russia. Merkel deliberately persued expanded trade with Russia in order to try and bind them to the rules-based order; given the original formation of the EEC (and eventually EU) was founded to do exactly that between Germany and France to make war unthinkable, she presumably thought the same thing would work with Russia; plenty of other German politicians thought the same way. It's also true that the Ukrainian pipeline network is old and leaks badly, leading to additional climate change impact without modernisation.
Ukraine has huge untapped reserves of natural gas and oil. If developed and the infrastrcture modernised, Ukraine could not only become self-sufficient, but export substantially to the EU; excluding Russia's asian reserves, Ukraine contains the 2nd largest known reserves in Europe, only behind Norway. Notably, most of those reserves lie in the Donbas basin.
With a western, instead of eastern facing leader in Ukraine (due to the 2014 revolution) those reserves could pose a huge threat to Russian oil and gas exports to Europe post Covid, Russia's largest export and a critical one. The EU has become increasingly reliant on gas as their bridge from coal to renewables, especially as nuclear plants are shut down in Germany, and oil as an alternative to the middle east. Hence, possibly, contributing to the instigation of the rebellion in the (somewhat pro-russian) donbas region directly after the Maiden revolution in 2014. Sevastopol in the Crimea is also the Russian black sea naval base, and has long been a sore point that it was in Ukrainian territory. Russia has propped up the rebels in the donbas region several times, and their unofficial military 'volunteers' basically are why that conflict has been unresolved for 8 years.
So, putting aside all the other things, such as Putin's apparent belief that Ukraine isn't a real country and is really just part of Russia and it's about time it realises it, as well as that Zelenskiy is just a US puppet, there's the attraction of a manufactured quick war to depose Zelenskiy and impose a Russian sympathiser, secure the Donbas region, his allies/useful idiots there and its huge gas & oil reserves, and gain a land bridge to occupied Crimea (which also has been struggling since Ukraine cut the water supply; one of the first things Russia did in that area was blow up the blocking dam). Russia wants both areas officially handed over by Ukraine.
Now though? Toppling Zelenskiy has failed, at huge cost in Russian men and materiel, but the other objectives are still in play. Plus Putin has long thought the west as soft, short-sighted and willing to appease strongmen. With the massive and unopposed propaganda fooling the vast majority of the Russian population into thinking Russia is acting in self-defence, and those civilian casualties are just western lies and ukrainian false-flag operations, and the draconian totalitarian crackdown on dissent and any opposing voices, plus all the oligarchs dependent upon him for their wealth, Putin doesn't fear any Russian opposition.
Once Mariupol is taken, if the war ends soon as a ceasefire with Russia occupying current Ukrainian territory, they are in a much stronger territorial position with control of much of the Ukrainian coast, which incidentally also degrades their wheat exports to Africa (another major Russian export). Give it a couple of years, I suspect the thinking goes, Trump wins in 2024, the western coalition and sanctions fall apart, and the powerless EU goes back to quietly buying Russian gas for at least another decade, while Russia gets to keep a chunk of Russian-speaking Ukraine. I do think he has massively underestimated Ukrainian resolve and willingness to withstand Russian terror tactics that worked in Syria and Chechnya though.
To stop that, the west needs to ratchet up sanctions to starve the Russian military, and really up the help to Ukraine with the resources to actually push back on defended territory in the south east. And for real pressure to force Russia out of Ukraine non-militarily, cut off the natural gas profits altogether, not just Nord Stream 2; though the last is politically unpalatable to Germany and much of eastern Europe given the massive impact that would have directly, and indirectly on worldwide nat gas prices, as well as the Orban blocking problem. The EU has spent 35 times as much on fossil fuel exports from Russia than it has given Ukraine in military aid since the war started.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:34 PM on April 6, 2022 [74 favorites]
"This war is literally incomprehensible now. Is Putin, reputed to be smart, just covering his own ass? [...] FOR WHAT?"
I did a student exchange to Russia in 1994. We visited Moscow, and Vladimir & Suzdal, and then we lived in St. Pete for a while. I was just talking to my roommate from back then about our time there (and how sad we are that the hope and promise of the post-Soviet Russia we experienced did not turn out as people wished it had), and we were remembering one of our guides in St. Petersburg, who took us on a Rastrelli tour and was a real character, very memorable. He said to us, "But you should be sad for us, in St. Petersburg! We have a new assistant mayor! He is former KGB, and he would kill his own grandmother for power!" and then mimed hanging himself, and then laughed bitterly. He was talking about Putin. (I don't think his title was actually "assistant/deputy mayor," but he was something high up in city government.) But that keeps coming back to me -- it was 1994, Putin was a city functionary, and our tour guide was eager to inform random American exchange students that this guy was so desperate for power that he'd kill his own grandmother. Like, I honestly, really think that's who Putin is -- a KGB guy who'd kill his own grandmother if he thought he could gain a minor advantage from it. I think observant Russians (or at least observant St. Petersburgers) understood who he was in 1994, and I don't think that's changed.
Certainly since 1999, observing Putin on the national and international stage, if I always filter his actions through the lens of "this guy would kill his own grandmother for power," I am never wrong about how far he is willing to go for his own personal power. As I've commented in prior threads, I think a lot about "Russky Mir" and the Russian Orthodox Church and Putin's beliefs about what constitutes Russia (pan-Slavic, and only Slavic, is what I think he believes), and what he really believes vs what he finds convenient propaganda, and I really look forward to reading the scholarly books in 20 years that dissect that all for me. But before all that, and beyond all that, and above all that, I think if you say to yourself, "This guy would kill his own grandmother for power -- what would he be willing to do here?" you will virtually always arrive at the most horrifying, and yet always correct, answer. He IS smart -- or as my mom likes to say, "crazy like a fox." It benefits him to appear crazy to the West, to appear like a guy who might use nuclear weapons, but keep in mind that he's not a blind ideologue (he might be an ideologue -- history will tell us! -- but he isn't a blind one if he is); he's a guy who would calmly kill his own grandmother for his own power. Putin's not launching nukes unless there is a clear advantage not for Russia, but for Putin.
The other politically-revealing even I always think about with Putin is -- remember when he brought dogs to a meeting to scare Angela Merkel? He knew she was terrified of dogs, he waited until all the press were in place for photos, and then he had dogs brought in, so there would be photos of her recoiling in fear. To Putin, this was a power move, and in the domestic press, I'm sure it played well. But to NATO countries, it played as a) a dick move, since he knew she was scared of dogs; and b) a really weak move, trying to show machismo and power through a symbolic and personal action, when Merkel was totally ready to do foreign policy and act for Germany (/the EU/NATO). Like, Merkel was never going to reduce her country's commitments to NATO because she was scared of dogs! That's ridiculous! It's an almost-medieval throwback to when foreign policy was personal, and you'd negotiate with the king's sister or his BFF rather than his highly-trained professional bureaucracy. In no universe does that come across as a power play or a Jedi mind trick to a university-educated Westerner who's used to a professionalized bureaucracy. Some of them might think it's funny (though most would think it's a dick move), but nobody's going to be impressed by it. And while Putin might think it's a power play, to his opposites it just appeared weak, like he had so little negotiating skill he had to try to unsettle his counterpart.
And while trying to unsettle Merkel, who'd only been in office two years and was -- I admit it! -- a woman might have seemed like a semi-reasonable strategy at that point, it was still a dramatic misapprehension to think the German foreign policy apparatus would allow her to give Putin concessions because he scared her with dogs. But also, with the benefit of having seen Angela Merkel in power for fifteen years, WHAT KIND OF IDIOT thinks he can bully ANGELA FUCKING MERKEL into doing a goddamned thing? That lady is made of titanium. You could drop a bomb literally right next to her and she would just get up and keep Merkeling. So Putin's action has come to seem even weaker and more pathetic over time!
"If anyone is claiming the retreat was a gesture of good will to reduce the scope of the war (something I haven't seen), that would be a sign of bad faith or profound ignorance."
I've seen some analysts saying that now that Putin is withdrawing from Kyiv and claiming "it was the Donbas all along," the war will continue until Putin either conquers the Donbas, or fails to conquer the Donbas, and only at that point will peace negotiations be possible. If Putin controls the Donbas, it's likely he can force Ukraine to accept a peace negotiation that gives him some territorial concessions around the Donbas and possibly Crimea. If Putin fails to control the Donbas, it's likely Putin's regime will finally be broken. Which means NATO needs to do everything in its power to ensure that Ukraine controls the Donbas and wins the battle for it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [133 favorites]
I did a student exchange to Russia in 1994. We visited Moscow, and Vladimir & Suzdal, and then we lived in St. Pete for a while. I was just talking to my roommate from back then about our time there (and how sad we are that the hope and promise of the post-Soviet Russia we experienced did not turn out as people wished it had), and we were remembering one of our guides in St. Petersburg, who took us on a Rastrelli tour and was a real character, very memorable. He said to us, "But you should be sad for us, in St. Petersburg! We have a new assistant mayor! He is former KGB, and he would kill his own grandmother for power!" and then mimed hanging himself, and then laughed bitterly. He was talking about Putin. (I don't think his title was actually "assistant/deputy mayor," but he was something high up in city government.) But that keeps coming back to me -- it was 1994, Putin was a city functionary, and our tour guide was eager to inform random American exchange students that this guy was so desperate for power that he'd kill his own grandmother. Like, I honestly, really think that's who Putin is -- a KGB guy who'd kill his own grandmother if he thought he could gain a minor advantage from it. I think observant Russians (or at least observant St. Petersburgers) understood who he was in 1994, and I don't think that's changed.
Certainly since 1999, observing Putin on the national and international stage, if I always filter his actions through the lens of "this guy would kill his own grandmother for power," I am never wrong about how far he is willing to go for his own personal power. As I've commented in prior threads, I think a lot about "Russky Mir" and the Russian Orthodox Church and Putin's beliefs about what constitutes Russia (pan-Slavic, and only Slavic, is what I think he believes), and what he really believes vs what he finds convenient propaganda, and I really look forward to reading the scholarly books in 20 years that dissect that all for me. But before all that, and beyond all that, and above all that, I think if you say to yourself, "This guy would kill his own grandmother for power -- what would he be willing to do here?" you will virtually always arrive at the most horrifying, and yet always correct, answer. He IS smart -- or as my mom likes to say, "crazy like a fox." It benefits him to appear crazy to the West, to appear like a guy who might use nuclear weapons, but keep in mind that he's not a blind ideologue (he might be an ideologue -- history will tell us! -- but he isn't a blind one if he is); he's a guy who would calmly kill his own grandmother for his own power. Putin's not launching nukes unless there is a clear advantage not for Russia, but for Putin.
The other politically-revealing even I always think about with Putin is -- remember when he brought dogs to a meeting to scare Angela Merkel? He knew she was terrified of dogs, he waited until all the press were in place for photos, and then he had dogs brought in, so there would be photos of her recoiling in fear. To Putin, this was a power move, and in the domestic press, I'm sure it played well. But to NATO countries, it played as a) a dick move, since he knew she was scared of dogs; and b) a really weak move, trying to show machismo and power through a symbolic and personal action, when Merkel was totally ready to do foreign policy and act for Germany (/the EU/NATO). Like, Merkel was never going to reduce her country's commitments to NATO because she was scared of dogs! That's ridiculous! It's an almost-medieval throwback to when foreign policy was personal, and you'd negotiate with the king's sister or his BFF rather than his highly-trained professional bureaucracy. In no universe does that come across as a power play or a Jedi mind trick to a university-educated Westerner who's used to a professionalized bureaucracy. Some of them might think it's funny (though most would think it's a dick move), but nobody's going to be impressed by it. And while Putin might think it's a power play, to his opposites it just appeared weak, like he had so little negotiating skill he had to try to unsettle his counterpart.
And while trying to unsettle Merkel, who'd only been in office two years and was -- I admit it! -- a woman might have seemed like a semi-reasonable strategy at that point, it was still a dramatic misapprehension to think the German foreign policy apparatus would allow her to give Putin concessions because he scared her with dogs. But also, with the benefit of having seen Angela Merkel in power for fifteen years, WHAT KIND OF IDIOT thinks he can bully ANGELA FUCKING MERKEL into doing a goddamned thing? That lady is made of titanium. You could drop a bomb literally right next to her and she would just get up and keep Merkeling. So Putin's action has come to seem even weaker and more pathetic over time!
"If anyone is claiming the retreat was a gesture of good will to reduce the scope of the war (something I haven't seen), that would be a sign of bad faith or profound ignorance."
I've seen some analysts saying that now that Putin is withdrawing from Kyiv and claiming "it was the Donbas all along," the war will continue until Putin either conquers the Donbas, or fails to conquer the Donbas, and only at that point will peace negotiations be possible. If Putin controls the Donbas, it's likely he can force Ukraine to accept a peace negotiation that gives him some territorial concessions around the Donbas and possibly Crimea. If Putin fails to control the Donbas, it's likely Putin's regime will finally be broken. Which means NATO needs to do everything in its power to ensure that Ukraine controls the Donbas and wins the battle for it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [133 favorites]
I wonder what all the people who 6 weeks ago were screaming "this is just western war mongering" are saying now.
Well some of them are making jackasses of themselves accusing the Secretary of Defense and the military of excessive "wokeness". (As if Matt Gaetz knows fuck all about the military, much less what they "got wrong")
posted by ctmf at 7:47 PM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
Well some of them are making jackasses of themselves accusing the Secretary of Defense and the military of excessive "wokeness". (As if Matt Gaetz knows fuck all about the military, much less what they "got wrong")
posted by ctmf at 7:47 PM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
One of the better twitter feeds I've found about the strategic situation of the war.
It seems like Putin banked on his efforts at political destabilization to undermine the Ukrainian government and Western resolve in general. As a result, the Russian military didn't commit enough forces to achieve its objectives when the Ukrainian government didn't collapse as expected during the initial assault. They experienced defeat around Kiev as a result, but they may be regrouping to try for a more limited "victory" they can claim through more concentrated offensives in the east.
In the medium term war of attrition Russia is experiencing a manpower shortage, while Ukraine has a need for equipment.
And in the long run, yeah, Putin might try again if the international political situation changes to what that he perceives to be his advantage.
Regarding that, Marine Le Pen is running uncomfortably close to Macron in France, while Viktor Orban is moving towards Russia.
China, India and others remain undecided on how to respond.
I'd say India is more trying to remain neutral due to pre-existing ties to both sides, while China is trying to play the situation their advantage. Chinese state media certainly is giving Russian propaganda a more sympathetic hearing than Western media is. The big question for me is what conclusions this whole affair causes China to make regarding how they act towards Taiwan.
Really, the West and Japan are the only blocks going full force with sanctions against Russia. A lot of countries simply can't afford to go without Russian foodstuffs and raw materials.
So, the long run remains murky. Hopefully Putin dies sooner rather than later. I miss the days when we thought no two countries that had a McDonalds would ever go to war with each other.
posted by eagles123 at 8:20 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
It seems like Putin banked on his efforts at political destabilization to undermine the Ukrainian government and Western resolve in general. As a result, the Russian military didn't commit enough forces to achieve its objectives when the Ukrainian government didn't collapse as expected during the initial assault. They experienced defeat around Kiev as a result, but they may be regrouping to try for a more limited "victory" they can claim through more concentrated offensives in the east.
In the medium term war of attrition Russia is experiencing a manpower shortage, while Ukraine has a need for equipment.
And in the long run, yeah, Putin might try again if the international political situation changes to what that he perceives to be his advantage.
Regarding that, Marine Le Pen is running uncomfortably close to Macron in France, while Viktor Orban is moving towards Russia.
China, India and others remain undecided on how to respond.
I'd say India is more trying to remain neutral due to pre-existing ties to both sides, while China is trying to play the situation their advantage. Chinese state media certainly is giving Russian propaganda a more sympathetic hearing than Western media is. The big question for me is what conclusions this whole affair causes China to make regarding how they act towards Taiwan.
Really, the West and Japan are the only blocks going full force with sanctions against Russia. A lot of countries simply can't afford to go without Russian foodstuffs and raw materials.
So, the long run remains murky. Hopefully Putin dies sooner rather than later. I miss the days when we thought no two countries that had a McDonalds would ever go to war with each other.
posted by eagles123 at 8:20 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
So Putin's action has come to seem even weaker and more pathetic over time!
But he's been photographed barechested on horseback and that has to count for something surely.
Maybe he needs a nice suit like Modi's, with his name woven into the pinstripes.
posted by flabdablet at 8:32 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
But he's been photographed barechested on horseback and that has to count for something surely.
Maybe he needs a nice suit like Modi's, with his name woven into the pinstripes.
posted by flabdablet at 8:32 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
I miss the days when we thought no two countries that had a McDonalds would ever go to war with each other.
Aka the world-historical inevitability of the triumph of ̶S̶o̶v̶i̶e̶t̶ ̶C̶o̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶s̶m̶ Pizza Hut.
posted by bartleby at 8:36 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Aka the world-historical inevitability of the triumph of ̶S̶o̶v̶i̶e̶t̶ ̶C̶o̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶s̶m̶ Pizza Hut.
posted by bartleby at 8:36 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
I appreciated Eyebrows McGee's post, above. I just don't know what the heck Putin thinks he's accomplishing. If you'd asked me a year ago about my opinion about Russia, I'd have said "stupid, but maybe OK." Today, they're Nazis.. This is not a win for Russia.
posted by SPrintF at 8:38 PM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 8:38 PM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
I've been fantasizing about a rouge squadron, like the Blackhawks.
posted by vrakatar at 8:39 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 8:39 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
"If anyone is claiming the retreat was a gesture of good will to reduce the scope of the war (something I haven't seen), that would be a sign of bad faith or profound ignorance."
The Russian government said this, claiming it was an action to make the negotiations go better, but absolutely nobody believed them. The statements lasted roughly less than two days and were quietly never brought up again.
And it was utter bad faith of course. The Russian troops around Kyiv got savaged, bad. Someone finally decided to stop marching them into a meat grinder, perhaps to stop out and out mutinies, or in the theory that preserving a fraction of your traumatized army is better than nothing.
posted by Jacen at 8:40 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Russian government said this, claiming it was an action to make the negotiations go better, but absolutely nobody believed them. The statements lasted roughly less than two days and were quietly never brought up again.
And it was utter bad faith of course. The Russian troops around Kyiv got savaged, bad. Someone finally decided to stop marching them into a meat grinder, perhaps to stop out and out mutinies, or in the theory that preserving a fraction of your traumatized army is better than nothing.
posted by Jacen at 8:40 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
(Reposting a comment I made a month ago on some thoughts behind Putin's likely logic. It's a nasty useless war of aggression, but my armchair strategist plus lots of following more professionally trained military thinkers says the invasion wasn't actual insanity. Evil, yes. Completely evil. But, there was Some reasoning behind it.)
Putin's plan, as a plan, wasn't terrible strategy. (The ethics, morality and legality are all atrocious, being both unprovoked and utterly unjustified mass murder and war crimes.)
Two main goals that I think he was going for, with the super fast strikes. A, he successfully takes Kyiv, and installed a group of politicians loyal to him, perhaps with a 'peacekeeping force' in place to ensure they stay in power and continue to do what he wants. This basically gets him the whole country if he can decapitate all the legitimate, elected leadership and turn Ukraine into a puppet state or something like Belarus where they do what he wants.
B, capture enough land on the coast and hold it, that when a ceasefire happens he can claim it, demand it legally becomes Russian territory. If Kiyv is faced with little external support and the option of turning over Donetsk and Luhansk or enduring a brutal war of oppression where civilians are freely targeted (See other recent Russian atrocities in places like Syria) what are they likely to choose? Especially if their military has proven largely ineffective in that situation?
And really, if the strategic strike worked, if there was basically no organized Ukraine military resistance today, and Putin had control over the government bodies of Ukraine? What would the USA do? How would the rest of the world react? Maybe condemnation and sanctions, sure. We certainly aren't going to start a war. I can see how the calculations of getting eastern Ukraine make sense. A quick 'special military operation' in exchange for a stretch of land connecting say, Crimea, Odessa, and Kharkiv to Russia, perhaps legally (though again, under duress and blatant war crimes, unjust war and murder of civilians) might well be worth it. How long till the world returns to business as usual? The world largely shrugged off Georgia, Crimea and Syria.
That said, the strike clearly didn't go as planned. Putin tried to keep the military force used small and contained, to maintain the pretense that they weren't blatantly invading sovereign territory. The secrecy and perhaps paranoia behind the attack led to poor Russian planning, organizing and goal setting. Coordination is bad. The Ukraine military and civilian population didn't collapse at all. This isn't a repeat of the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan, this isn't a lightning decapitation strike. This has turned into a disaster, with heavier than expected sanctions, and Russia is reverting to their usual brute force tactics of murdering civilians and destroying basic infrastructure.
posted by Jacen at 8:47 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
Putin's plan, as a plan, wasn't terrible strategy. (The ethics, morality and legality are all atrocious, being both unprovoked and utterly unjustified mass murder and war crimes.)
Two main goals that I think he was going for, with the super fast strikes. A, he successfully takes Kyiv, and installed a group of politicians loyal to him, perhaps with a 'peacekeeping force' in place to ensure they stay in power and continue to do what he wants. This basically gets him the whole country if he can decapitate all the legitimate, elected leadership and turn Ukraine into a puppet state or something like Belarus where they do what he wants.
B, capture enough land on the coast and hold it, that when a ceasefire happens he can claim it, demand it legally becomes Russian territory. If Kiyv is faced with little external support and the option of turning over Donetsk and Luhansk or enduring a brutal war of oppression where civilians are freely targeted (See other recent Russian atrocities in places like Syria) what are they likely to choose? Especially if their military has proven largely ineffective in that situation?
And really, if the strategic strike worked, if there was basically no organized Ukraine military resistance today, and Putin had control over the government bodies of Ukraine? What would the USA do? How would the rest of the world react? Maybe condemnation and sanctions, sure. We certainly aren't going to start a war. I can see how the calculations of getting eastern Ukraine make sense. A quick 'special military operation' in exchange for a stretch of land connecting say, Crimea, Odessa, and Kharkiv to Russia, perhaps legally (though again, under duress and blatant war crimes, unjust war and murder of civilians) might well be worth it. How long till the world returns to business as usual? The world largely shrugged off Georgia, Crimea and Syria.
That said, the strike clearly didn't go as planned. Putin tried to keep the military force used small and contained, to maintain the pretense that they weren't blatantly invading sovereign territory. The secrecy and perhaps paranoia behind the attack led to poor Russian planning, organizing and goal setting. Coordination is bad. The Ukraine military and civilian population didn't collapse at all. This isn't a repeat of the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan, this isn't a lightning decapitation strike. This has turned into a disaster, with heavier than expected sanctions, and Russia is reverting to their usual brute force tactics of murdering civilians and destroying basic infrastructure.
posted by Jacen at 8:47 PM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
claiming "it was the Donbas all along," the war will continue until Putin either conquers the Donbas, or fails to conquer the Donbas, and only at that point will peace negotiations be possible.
I agree 100%, but it's worth noting Russia does already currently control much of the Donbas, and the land-bridge to Crimea - they have taken over substantially more territory around there than the pre-invasion defacto border with the separatists. So it's not just that Ukrainian defensive positions there need to withstand the expanded offensive, with reinforcements from the re-armed northern units coming, and continue to defend Mariupol with whoever's left there, but also advance into the defended Russian positions, some of which have been in place for years and will be extremely hard to take.
The Ukrainians have been successfully pushing back around Kherson on the western end, and Kharkiv on the northern end, but I do worry how much longer cut-off Mariupol (a key city of the Donbas region, and a vital strategic target for both sides), can hold out under continuing Russian bombardment and advances from all directions. The civilian casualties there have been horrific, and Russia has continually blocked humanitarian relief and shelled civilian evacuation corridors. It appears Russia is using the same terror tactics as Aleppo, where they surrounded it, shelled it rubble and slowing squeezed the Syrian rebels into nothing. I think there's going to be far more terrible war crimes come to light there in Russian controlled parts of the city than we yet know.
Ukraine doesn't just have to withstand the Russian offensives in the south east, but it will need very different weapons than currently supplied to regain control of more of the Donbas and relieve Mariupol; missile systems, tanks, drones, long-range SAMs and missile defences - I just hope the west is up to it, and the weaknesses of the Russian forces, their morale and supplies is true. The conscripts might be wavering, but there's a hardcore of older troops, such as those responsible for the atrocities in Bucha, now headed to the Donbas who need to be defeated.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:48 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
I agree 100%, but it's worth noting Russia does already currently control much of the Donbas, and the land-bridge to Crimea - they have taken over substantially more territory around there than the pre-invasion defacto border with the separatists. So it's not just that Ukrainian defensive positions there need to withstand the expanded offensive, with reinforcements from the re-armed northern units coming, and continue to defend Mariupol with whoever's left there, but also advance into the defended Russian positions, some of which have been in place for years and will be extremely hard to take.
The Ukrainians have been successfully pushing back around Kherson on the western end, and Kharkiv on the northern end, but I do worry how much longer cut-off Mariupol (a key city of the Donbas region, and a vital strategic target for both sides), can hold out under continuing Russian bombardment and advances from all directions. The civilian casualties there have been horrific, and Russia has continually blocked humanitarian relief and shelled civilian evacuation corridors. It appears Russia is using the same terror tactics as Aleppo, where they surrounded it, shelled it rubble and slowing squeezed the Syrian rebels into nothing. I think there's going to be far more terrible war crimes come to light there in Russian controlled parts of the city than we yet know.
Ukraine doesn't just have to withstand the Russian offensives in the south east, but it will need very different weapons than currently supplied to regain control of more of the Donbas and relieve Mariupol; missile systems, tanks, drones, long-range SAMs and missile defences - I just hope the west is up to it, and the weaknesses of the Russian forces, their morale and supplies is true. The conscripts might be wavering, but there's a hardcore of older troops, such as those responsible for the atrocities in Bucha, now headed to the Donbas who need to be defeated.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:48 PM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
Bret Devereaux [drink?] had a good thread debunking the theory that attacking Kyiv and then retreating was part of a clever plan all along.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:52 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:52 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
The New Yorker: Collecting Bodies in Bucha
posted by Kabanos at 9:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 9:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
The other thing I think a lot about w/r/t Russia and Ukraine is that Ukraine is full of "yeoman farmers" (or "small freehold farmers" for you not-English-colonized folks). The most photosynthetically productive part of the entire world is the US corn belt. But Ukraine? Ukraine is WAY up there. The English, the French, the Germans, the Swiss, the Italians -- they all lived in places where crop productivity is high enough that a dude with some land could feed his family and sell some excess crops. He could become a yeoman farmer, independent, free, self-supporting, and possessing certain rights that kept him out of serfdom/slavery. You look at Ukraine, you look at these dudes with the jailbroken John Deere tractors who are stealing Russian tanks, and you see yeomen farmers. They might not be middle-class (since the global middle class has largely passed farmers by at this point), but they can support themselves and their families, and sell enough of their crops to buy John Deere tractors and cell phones.
But in Russia? No. The land from the border to Moscow is fairly agriculturally productive, but it's not "American midwest" productive. It's not even "Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe" productive. And most of Russia is not west of Moscow. Most of Russia is an agricultural wasteland that allows subsistence farming ... but not yeoman farming. Not farming that gives a nation a surplus that lets them urbanize. Not farming that lets farmers send their kids to college. A lot of Russia doesn't even allow subsistence farming! It requires subsistence hunting combined with supplemental farming, or huge quantities of imported food.
There's something called "the resource curse," or resource trap, that explains why countries that are rich in natural resources (like petrostates; but formerly also lumber states and other kinds of resource states/colonies) and therefore have a lot of wealth to use, nevertheless do not become major economic powers, while countries that are poor in natural resources (Japan, South Korea) manage it. And the answer is basically that if you can pull your wealth out of the ground in the form of oil, the incentive is to centralize that among a handful of oligarchs and their hired hands with oil expertise. But if you don't have natural resources to exploit, you have to pour massive government resources into education and industrialization so that your population can run valuable high-tech factories (for whatever the value of high-tech is in your era) and then can move into the managerial and creative roles that pay the best.
So there are basically two ways to join the OECD: Have yeoman farmers, or educate the shit out of your people. (Side note, the constant temptation for the US and Canada is to fall into the resource trap and make their money by selling oil/gas/timber/minerals and concentrating wealth into oligarchs, and they have to fight to have yeoman farmers! Both countries are enormously resource-rich, but accidentally fell into yeoman-farmer-dom, and need to continue to support robust public universities to stay there.) The USSR made a pretty legit run at educating the shit out of its people, but failed in the end because resource-extraction was too lucrative. As we look at today's situation, Ukraine is full of yeoman farmers and Ukrainians who, though they're not European-wealthy, are middle-class-ish compared to other Ukrainians. That's important! But Russia? Russia has a highly-concentrated wealthy class in Moscow and St. Pete, and its hinterlands are not remotely self-supporting. And they can't be! Siberia simply doesn't have enough photosynthesis to support yeoman farmers, no matter how hard they work! That leaves three choices: exploit resource extraction (which further concentrates wealth in oligarchic hands); abandon the hinterlands; or educate the fuck out of the populace. No resource-rich states other than the US, Canada, and China have ever gone to education on purpose (and tbh the US and Canada kinda lucked into it for historically-contingent reasons). Which suggests the current Russian regime is going to either exploit the hinterlands more, or abandon them. Or both! A lot of commentators on the Russian state have noted that state power in Siberia is ... almost nonexistent. If you live outside the cities and you want to ignore the government, you totally can.
The US and Canada have a lot of hinterland subsistence-farming areas. But the US and Canada provide enormous benefits to being a part of them. Like, Alaska is so hinterland-y that the US literally pays people to live there, and almost 30% of its state budget comes from federal funds. The US provides about $60 billion yearly to Alaska; the entire Russian Federation national budget is only around $200 billion. (The US's budget is edging towards $7 trillion.) The Russian government assiduously avoids announcing how much money it's providing to the hinterlands, because it's such a tiny amount. Whereas the US and Canada brag about it, because it makes the hinterlands like them more. China's numbers are messy, but they also like to brag about how much they're sending to the provinces because being part of China is good for the provinces. That's simply not true of Russian provinces/hinterlands -- they're just kinda on their own, and unlike a lot of Chinese provinces, they can't possibly support their own people through agriculture.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:03 PM on April 6, 2022 [130 favorites]
But in Russia? No. The land from the border to Moscow is fairly agriculturally productive, but it's not "American midwest" productive. It's not even "Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe" productive. And most of Russia is not west of Moscow. Most of Russia is an agricultural wasteland that allows subsistence farming ... but not yeoman farming. Not farming that gives a nation a surplus that lets them urbanize. Not farming that lets farmers send their kids to college. A lot of Russia doesn't even allow subsistence farming! It requires subsistence hunting combined with supplemental farming, or huge quantities of imported food.
There's something called "the resource curse," or resource trap, that explains why countries that are rich in natural resources (like petrostates; but formerly also lumber states and other kinds of resource states/colonies) and therefore have a lot of wealth to use, nevertheless do not become major economic powers, while countries that are poor in natural resources (Japan, South Korea) manage it. And the answer is basically that if you can pull your wealth out of the ground in the form of oil, the incentive is to centralize that among a handful of oligarchs and their hired hands with oil expertise. But if you don't have natural resources to exploit, you have to pour massive government resources into education and industrialization so that your population can run valuable high-tech factories (for whatever the value of high-tech is in your era) and then can move into the managerial and creative roles that pay the best.
So there are basically two ways to join the OECD: Have yeoman farmers, or educate the shit out of your people. (Side note, the constant temptation for the US and Canada is to fall into the resource trap and make their money by selling oil/gas/timber/minerals and concentrating wealth into oligarchs, and they have to fight to have yeoman farmers! Both countries are enormously resource-rich, but accidentally fell into yeoman-farmer-dom, and need to continue to support robust public universities to stay there.) The USSR made a pretty legit run at educating the shit out of its people, but failed in the end because resource-extraction was too lucrative. As we look at today's situation, Ukraine is full of yeoman farmers and Ukrainians who, though they're not European-wealthy, are middle-class-ish compared to other Ukrainians. That's important! But Russia? Russia has a highly-concentrated wealthy class in Moscow and St. Pete, and its hinterlands are not remotely self-supporting. And they can't be! Siberia simply doesn't have enough photosynthesis to support yeoman farmers, no matter how hard they work! That leaves three choices: exploit resource extraction (which further concentrates wealth in oligarchic hands); abandon the hinterlands; or educate the fuck out of the populace. No resource-rich states other than the US, Canada, and China have ever gone to education on purpose (and tbh the US and Canada kinda lucked into it for historically-contingent reasons). Which suggests the current Russian regime is going to either exploit the hinterlands more, or abandon them. Or both! A lot of commentators on the Russian state have noted that state power in Siberia is ... almost nonexistent. If you live outside the cities and you want to ignore the government, you totally can.
The US and Canada have a lot of hinterland subsistence-farming areas. But the US and Canada provide enormous benefits to being a part of them. Like, Alaska is so hinterland-y that the US literally pays people to live there, and almost 30% of its state budget comes from federal funds. The US provides about $60 billion yearly to Alaska; the entire Russian Federation national budget is only around $200 billion. (The US's budget is edging towards $7 trillion.) The Russian government assiduously avoids announcing how much money it's providing to the hinterlands, because it's such a tiny amount. Whereas the US and Canada brag about it, because it makes the hinterlands like them more. China's numbers are messy, but they also like to brag about how much they're sending to the provinces because being part of China is good for the provinces. That's simply not true of Russian provinces/hinterlands -- they're just kinda on their own, and unlike a lot of Chinese provinces, they can't possibly support their own people through agriculture.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:03 PM on April 6, 2022 [130 favorites]
Task and Purpose has a video they posted just a couple hours ago analyzing video of recent Ukrainian counter attacks. I believe he was in the Marines and his videos can have the typical clickbait, goofy shticks but he does have a good analysis from someone that's actually been in a warzone.
posted by geoff. at 9:09 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by geoff. at 9:09 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
The US provides about $60 billion yearly to Alaska; the entire Russian Federation national budget is only around $200 billion. (The US's budget is edging towards $7 trillion.)
The US can print money (backed as petrodollars) at will. Russia may not be able to do the same.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:44 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
The US can print money (backed as petrodollars) at will. Russia may not be able to do the same.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:44 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here is a good article on the Twitter based open source intelligence folks who have been helping shed light on the situation in Ukraine.
posted by interogative mood at 9:54 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:54 PM on April 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
interogative mood: This is a 9-11 scale event
Um. This comparison makes me quite uncomfortable. And I don't want to step on anyone's toes, so let me just say that y'all should probably not use this scale to measure the current events in Ukraine.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:49 PM on April 6, 2022 [35 favorites]
Um. This comparison makes me quite uncomfortable. And I don't want to step on anyone's toes, so let me just say that y'all should probably not use this scale to measure the current events in Ukraine.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:49 PM on April 6, 2022 [35 favorites]
Kyiv Independent: ⚡️ US Senate revives Lend-Lease, allowing Biden to more efficiently send weapons and other supplies to Ukraine.
Lend-Lease is a World War II-era measure that allowed the U.S. to quickly resupply Allies in the fight against Nazi Germany.
posted by cendawanita at 11:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
Lend-Lease is a World War II-era measure that allowed the U.S. to quickly resupply Allies in the fight against Nazi Germany.
posted by cendawanita at 11:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
Keep in mind that simply rendering a tank inoperable is enough, a complete kill isn't needed. A tank that can't effectively operate its turret is not mission capable.
Or one that has one of its tracks broken. At best it will just be left sitting where it was hit with its crew able to get out and move away.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Or one that has one of its tracks broken. At best it will just be left sitting where it was hit with its crew able to get out and move away.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:57 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
"But you should be sad for us, in St. Petersburg! We have a new assistant mayor! He is former KGB, and he would kill his own grandmother for power!"
Same as Otto von Habsburg said, in an interview in 2007.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:08 AM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Same as Otto von Habsburg said, in an interview in 2007.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:08 AM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Or one that has one of its tracks broken
Or less than that, even having the optics damaged is enough to render a tank combat ineffective. From Task and Purpose's previous videos and the somewhat credible /r/warcollege (which bans any discussion of military conflicts within the last year to keep speculation to a minimum, discussions still come up that are applicable), tanks and armored vehicles are pretty susceptible to direct hits by any of the arms we supply them. It isn't the movie Fury with bazooka rounds bouncing off. Further, tanks really aren't meant to engage in open Kursk style standoffs.
I wish I could find the link but someone pointed out that MBT's are usually a kilometer out and the most you'd see is an outline in a scope. Simply it isn't really in any country's doctrine to rush an expensive MBT for close combat but instead have armament for 1-2km kill distances. From the video I posted it is pretty apparent why, tanks in close combat are easy and expensive targets.
This was somewhat surprising for me at least, as I'm ashamed to admit I was influenced heavily by Call of Duty.
posted by geoff. at 12:12 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Or less than that, even having the optics damaged is enough to render a tank combat ineffective. From Task and Purpose's previous videos and the somewhat credible /r/warcollege (which bans any discussion of military conflicts within the last year to keep speculation to a minimum, discussions still come up that are applicable), tanks and armored vehicles are pretty susceptible to direct hits by any of the arms we supply them. It isn't the movie Fury with bazooka rounds bouncing off. Further, tanks really aren't meant to engage in open Kursk style standoffs.
I wish I could find the link but someone pointed out that MBT's are usually a kilometer out and the most you'd see is an outline in a scope. Simply it isn't really in any country's doctrine to rush an expensive MBT for close combat but instead have armament for 1-2km kill distances. From the video I posted it is pretty apparent why, tanks in close combat are easy and expensive targets.
This was somewhat surprising for me at least, as I'm ashamed to admit I was influenced heavily by Call of Duty.
posted by geoff. at 12:12 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Amanpour & Company: Armed With Cellphones, Ukrainian Civilians Fight Back Against Russia
Ukrainians are holding off Russian forces not just on the ground, but also online. Government officials and a citizen IT army are transforming the digital landscape, adapting everyday technology into wartime survival tools. Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Vera Bergengruen joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the country’s virtual strategy -- and success.
Part of the tangent regarding civilian tech that's been in use.
posted by cendawanita at 1:43 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainians are holding off Russian forces not just on the ground, but also online. Government officials and a citizen IT army are transforming the digital landscape, adapting everyday technology into wartime survival tools. Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Vera Bergengruen joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the country’s virtual strategy -- and success.
Part of the tangent regarding civilian tech that's been in use.
posted by cendawanita at 1:43 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Simply it isn't really in any country's doctrine to rush an expensive MBT for close combat but instead have armament for 1-2km kill distances.
The US regularly used their M1 Abrams in the streets of Fallujah in street to street combat. At the time they were mostly invulnerable to the weapons the enemy used. Nowadays, with the increased lethality of small arms (NLAW, Javelin, Stugna-P) being slow, large and heavily armored has become a liability. The US would never use tanks in that fashion again.
Similar to how aircraft carriers ended the age of battleships.
And probably similar to how hypersonic missiles may end the age of aircraft carriers.
posted by xdvesper at 1:44 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The US regularly used their M1 Abrams in the streets of Fallujah in street to street combat. At the time they were mostly invulnerable to the weapons the enemy used. Nowadays, with the increased lethality of small arms (NLAW, Javelin, Stugna-P) being slow, large and heavily armored has become a liability. The US would never use tanks in that fashion again.
Similar to how aircraft carriers ended the age of battleships.
And probably similar to how hypersonic missiles may end the age of aircraft carriers.
posted by xdvesper at 1:44 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Please remember that the Ukraine megathreads, besides being a forum for discussion, is also a valuable resource for those of us who live in countries bordering Russia and Ukraine. English-language media is notoriously bad at foregrounding the voices of those who aren’t native anglophones, or generally just anyone who isn’t a high status cishet white guy who went to a prestigious university.
The megathreads have been better than other places I frequent at highlighting videos, essays, reportage, blogposts, podcasts and Twitter-threads from Ukrainians, dissident Russians, people living in various border countries, subject experts, and other voices that offer something different to the dominant mode in anglophone media discourse. We’re also lucky enough to have some of those voices in these threads.
So please keep in mind that important aspect of these threads, and keep an eye out for that kind of content, as it is important for the MeFites who live in this general part of the world.
Also, please remember to not give in to the very understandable urge to write up the various horrible scenarios that would result if the war should escalate. We’re all too aware of that, and under enough general stress, without being confronted with the prospect of our own deaths and those of our loved ones.
posted by Kattullus at 2:55 AM on April 7, 2022 [79 favorites]
The megathreads have been better than other places I frequent at highlighting videos, essays, reportage, blogposts, podcasts and Twitter-threads from Ukrainians, dissident Russians, people living in various border countries, subject experts, and other voices that offer something different to the dominant mode in anglophone media discourse. We’re also lucky enough to have some of those voices in these threads.
So please keep in mind that important aspect of these threads, and keep an eye out for that kind of content, as it is important for the MeFites who live in this general part of the world.
Also, please remember to not give in to the very understandable urge to write up the various horrible scenarios that would result if the war should escalate. We’re all too aware of that, and under enough general stress, without being confronted with the prospect of our own deaths and those of our loved ones.
posted by Kattullus at 2:55 AM on April 7, 2022 [79 favorites]
I want to second Kattullus very polite comment, and be slightly less polite: I feel like these threads have overall been a really valuable resource for high quality information about the war, but the signal-to-noise ratio has been dropping in the past couple days.
People discussing things is good! And most people here have their hearts in the right place. But these threads are about Ukraine. So maybe before you hit post comment, just think about whether your comment is about: Ukraine, and the conflict going on there right now, or rather: the US, or US-Russia, or generalized arm-chair generalling, or hot takes about what a tool Putin is. All of which are certainly worth talking about, but maybe not nearly as relevant as we may sometimes think.
Otherwise those of us looking for information about the war in Ukraine have to sort through a lot of kind of irrelevant stuff. There are several other threads for focused discussion on other matters, and you're welcome to make a new one.
posted by Alex404 at 3:14 AM on April 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
People discussing things is good! And most people here have their hearts in the right place. But these threads are about Ukraine. So maybe before you hit post comment, just think about whether your comment is about: Ukraine, and the conflict going on there right now, or rather: the US, or US-Russia, or generalized arm-chair generalling, or hot takes about what a tool Putin is. All of which are certainly worth talking about, but maybe not nearly as relevant as we may sometimes think.
Otherwise those of us looking for information about the war in Ukraine have to sort through a lot of kind of irrelevant stuff. There are several other threads for focused discussion on other matters, and you're welcome to make a new one.
posted by Alex404 at 3:14 AM on April 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
The megathreads have been better than other places …
I’ve been wondering that - this war has shoved me into the ridiculous forest that is Twitter and I keep wondering how to navigate myself and then if I’m missing big chunks or not. The threads here have been a valuable source of info and commentary.
Lately I’ve been thinking a bit about the difference between the influx of refugees now versus those from Syria and one data point I heard recently and that struck me is that the war in Ukrain has sent out millions in the space of months, while Syria’s refugees trickled out over years (in many ways far more traumatic, a dozen kids enrolled in our kids’ school and, once they were up to speed with the language, had some difficult home truths to impart. Once Frau Merkel said, “We can do this” and society on the most prosaic level got on board with the work of helping, the effort was substantial and heartening.) In this case the train stations are flooded (in way as frantic and desperate and heart-wrenching as any scene out of the 2ndWW), every single day by people desperate to get away - not a trickle or even a stream coming in here and there - a flood.
And the emails, people looking for an apartment for a friend or family - it’s very, very concrete.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:28 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
I’ve been wondering that - this war has shoved me into the ridiculous forest that is Twitter and I keep wondering how to navigate myself and then if I’m missing big chunks or not. The threads here have been a valuable source of info and commentary.
Lately I’ve been thinking a bit about the difference between the influx of refugees now versus those from Syria and one data point I heard recently and that struck me is that the war in Ukrain has sent out millions in the space of months, while Syria’s refugees trickled out over years (in many ways far more traumatic, a dozen kids enrolled in our kids’ school and, once they were up to speed with the language, had some difficult home truths to impart. Once Frau Merkel said, “We can do this” and society on the most prosaic level got on board with the work of helping, the effort was substantial and heartening.) In this case the train stations are flooded (in way as frantic and desperate and heart-wrenching as any scene out of the 2ndWW), every single day by people desperate to get away - not a trickle or even a stream coming in here and there - a flood.
And the emails, people looking for an apartment for a friend or family - it’s very, very concrete.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:28 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
I take it that you're in Berlin, From Bklyn. My wife's family is from there, and it's so strange hearing how dramatic the refugee situation is there, compared to being in Baden-Württemberg where I am, where things are mostly as they were.
I'm having trouble finding clear, up to date statistics about where refugees are going and why. Is it just a matter of distance from Berlin-Heidelberg? Are the large capitals overwhelmingly where refugees are ending up? Are there plans to help refugees redistribute to the rest of the country?
On review: the Wikipedia article on the 2022 Ukrainian refugee crisis has a lot of good info.
posted by Alex404 at 3:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm having trouble finding clear, up to date statistics about where refugees are going and why. Is it just a matter of distance from Berlin-Heidelberg? Are the large capitals overwhelmingly where refugees are ending up? Are there plans to help refugees redistribute to the rest of the country?
On review: the Wikipedia article on the 2022 Ukrainian refugee crisis has a lot of good info.
posted by Alex404 at 3:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread 👇
posted by Grangousier at 3:53 AM on April 7, 2022 [36 favorites]
This time there's also a giant Ukrainian diaspora lobbying in Europe especially. Ukrainians don't need visas to enter Schengen and Poland had nearly a million of them before the war. They were running to a familiar place.
Refugee update: the main reception centres in Warsaw will be closed this week because the flood has slowed to a trickle of a few thousand per day, with many people going back now that Kyiv is more secure. Aid fatigue is settling in too. Thankfully the government process of hiring hotel rooms is working decently, after a hiccup with lowering rates once short term stays became long term. Health services seem to be going well, with many children born in exile.
Protests continue under Russian embassies. Giant photos of Bucha atrocities under the Warsaw one, a pond turned to blood in Vilnius.
Lots of low key war presence in Warsaw life. At a craft fair this weekend, a whole area was set apart for Ukrainian craftspeople and their wares (I got a pendant fromAnfisa, who's a wizard with copper wire). A culture centre near me is doing an event next weekend for Ukrainians by Ukrainians, with traditional food and music. Lots of ads on local Facebook groups about refugees who bake cakes, make pelmeni or braid hair, plus of course cleaning services - one was a mum who speaks Polish already because she's been cleaning Polish houses on and off for years, except now all three of her daughters joined her.
The flower boxes on Warsaw bus stations are blooming blue and white this year.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:00 AM on April 7, 2022 [19 favorites]
Refugee update: the main reception centres in Warsaw will be closed this week because the flood has slowed to a trickle of a few thousand per day, with many people going back now that Kyiv is more secure. Aid fatigue is settling in too. Thankfully the government process of hiring hotel rooms is working decently, after a hiccup with lowering rates once short term stays became long term. Health services seem to be going well, with many children born in exile.
Protests continue under Russian embassies. Giant photos of Bucha atrocities under the Warsaw one, a pond turned to blood in Vilnius.
Lots of low key war presence in Warsaw life. At a craft fair this weekend, a whole area was set apart for Ukrainian craftspeople and their wares (I got a pendant fromAnfisa, who's a wizard with copper wire). A culture centre near me is doing an event next weekend for Ukrainians by Ukrainians, with traditional food and music. Lots of ads on local Facebook groups about refugees who bake cakes, make pelmeni or braid hair, plus of course cleaning services - one was a mum who speaks Polish already because she's been cleaning Polish houses on and off for years, except now all three of her daughters joined her.
The flower boxes on Warsaw bus stations are blooming blue and white this year.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:00 AM on April 7, 2022 [19 favorites]
Amanpour & Company: Armed With Cellphones, Ukrainian Civilians Fight Back Against Russia
I finally finished the video and there's a bit here that was interesting enough to surface and commit to text here: apparently the whole Starlink twitter request was purely stage/statecraft - the Ukrainians had been working in the background to secure those satellites and when the deal was almost good to go was when the minister (who didn't really use twitter) tweeted out the request which Musk replied. That tweet was really intended for the western audience.
Anyway, from New Lines Magazine (by Oz Katerji): In the Liberated Kyiv Suburbs, Two Tales of War Emerge
posted by cendawanita at 4:01 AM on April 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
I finally finished the video and there's a bit here that was interesting enough to surface and commit to text here: apparently the whole Starlink twitter request was purely stage/statecraft - the Ukrainians had been working in the background to secure those satellites and when the deal was almost good to go was when the minister (who didn't really use twitter) tweeted out the request which Musk replied. That tweet was really intended for the western audience.
Anyway, from New Lines Magazine (by Oz Katerji): In the Liberated Kyiv Suburbs, Two Tales of War Emerge
posted by cendawanita at 4:01 AM on April 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
Well some of them are making jackasses of themselves accusing the Secretary of Defense and the military of excessive "wokeness". (As if Matt Gaetz knows fuck all about the military, much less what they "got wrong")
There has been a strong strain of ultra-conservative Russophilia in "the West" which we see in Hungary as well (I suspect that we would see it in Czechia and Poland as well except maybe they have better memories of actual Soviet oppression against them which over-ride that?). This aligns with Masha Gessen has said as well, that while this stuff is geopolitically nonsense (how can you be pro American dominance as these guys claim to be and also pro Russia?) it has a cultural salience. Russia is institutionally homophobic, trans-phobic (of course), intolerant of anything that doesn't align with a certain kind of totalitarian masculinity which aligns itself with a perversion of Orthodox religion.
It's notable that these guys have spent years claiming that the "real men" of Russia's military would sweep away the softies of NATO. After all, how could a military that cares about people's preferred pronouns fight a country led by a proper tough guy? NATO even wastes money on feminine nonsense like climate controlled storage for their vehicle tires! Lol, not like real stronk bear man from Russia! There was a lot of mockery of how American forward operating bases in Afghanistan would use their helicopters to have food delivered from the base Arbys (yes, that really happened). This rhetoric has also been echoed in the Russian language media.
At no point did these commentators consider that if you have enough helicopters to waste their time that way, that probably means you have a lot of helicopters and that they are maintained, that you have pilots and spares and fuel for them. Or the fact that putting a bunch of American chain restaurants on a base in Afghanistan is not a product of effete softness but of overwhelming imperial logistical superiority. That there is a reason to be "fussy" about the way you store and treat your vehicle tires.
It is actually the same kind of totalitarian ultra-masculine and pseudo-traditionalist stuff that the Germans and the Japanese told themselves about their adversaries on the eve of WWII. The Americans, the British, the French, all a bunch of effete pleasure loving merchants. Soft girly-men. Strong countries don't spend money on mathematicians or tolerate jovial safe-cracking physicists. And then, oops.
There's an anecdote from WWII where the Japanese simply could not believe that the Americans had a special barge for making ice-cream and assumed it was for something else and the despair that a Japanese intelligence officer felt when he realised it really was for making several flavours of ice cream (at this point Japanese forces on many islands were effectively isolated and starving to death).
Russian domestic propaganda about Ukrainians doesn't quite mirror this but there has definitely been an edge in how they have described Zelenskiyy. An Actor, a comedian! A guy "with a lot of family in Odessa IYKWIM...". That's not a serious guy. I bet he hasn't ridden a horse even *with* a shirt let alone without.
Having convinced themselves that Ukraine isn't a real country that most of its citizens would fight for, that its leaders are universally either puppets or fundamentally nonserious, and that the only countries that could conceivably help them are too obsessed with being "woke" to do anything is a triple example of having got profoundly high on their own supply of propaganda and then being shocked when actually none of it was true.
On the topic of propaganda: here again everyone had bought into a Russian narrative where they were masters of botnets, of subverting politicians, of media control. They had supposedly subverted the German and British governments with their gas and their oligarch money. What we've actually seen is unbelievably clumsy and hamfisted messaging, completely outclassed by Ukraine and the immediate collapse of their supposed influence operations as it turns out that politicians do not stay bought and that having gotten all the money for London property, the British are happy enough to just seize the lot. Turns out that buying a box at Ascot doesn't mean shit when serious geopolitical events happen, a statement which is both blindingly obvious and surprisingly would have been controversial six months ago.
posted by atrazine at 4:18 AM on April 7, 2022 [100 favorites]
There has been a strong strain of ultra-conservative Russophilia in "the West" which we see in Hungary as well (I suspect that we would see it in Czechia and Poland as well except maybe they have better memories of actual Soviet oppression against them which over-ride that?). This aligns with Masha Gessen has said as well, that while this stuff is geopolitically nonsense (how can you be pro American dominance as these guys claim to be and also pro Russia?) it has a cultural salience. Russia is institutionally homophobic, trans-phobic (of course), intolerant of anything that doesn't align with a certain kind of totalitarian masculinity which aligns itself with a perversion of Orthodox religion.
It's notable that these guys have spent years claiming that the "real men" of Russia's military would sweep away the softies of NATO. After all, how could a military that cares about people's preferred pronouns fight a country led by a proper tough guy? NATO even wastes money on feminine nonsense like climate controlled storage for their vehicle tires! Lol, not like real stronk bear man from Russia! There was a lot of mockery of how American forward operating bases in Afghanistan would use their helicopters to have food delivered from the base Arbys (yes, that really happened). This rhetoric has also been echoed in the Russian language media.
At no point did these commentators consider that if you have enough helicopters to waste their time that way, that probably means you have a lot of helicopters and that they are maintained, that you have pilots and spares and fuel for them. Or the fact that putting a bunch of American chain restaurants on a base in Afghanistan is not a product of effete softness but of overwhelming imperial logistical superiority. That there is a reason to be "fussy" about the way you store and treat your vehicle tires.
It is actually the same kind of totalitarian ultra-masculine and pseudo-traditionalist stuff that the Germans and the Japanese told themselves about their adversaries on the eve of WWII. The Americans, the British, the French, all a bunch of effete pleasure loving merchants. Soft girly-men. Strong countries don't spend money on mathematicians or tolerate jovial safe-cracking physicists. And then, oops.
There's an anecdote from WWII where the Japanese simply could not believe that the Americans had a special barge for making ice-cream and assumed it was for something else and the despair that a Japanese intelligence officer felt when he realised it really was for making several flavours of ice cream (at this point Japanese forces on many islands were effectively isolated and starving to death).
Russian domestic propaganda about Ukrainians doesn't quite mirror this but there has definitely been an edge in how they have described Zelenskiyy. An Actor, a comedian! A guy "with a lot of family in Odessa IYKWIM...". That's not a serious guy. I bet he hasn't ridden a horse even *with* a shirt let alone without.
Having convinced themselves that Ukraine isn't a real country that most of its citizens would fight for, that its leaders are universally either puppets or fundamentally nonserious, and that the only countries that could conceivably help them are too obsessed with being "woke" to do anything is a triple example of having got profoundly high on their own supply of propaganda and then being shocked when actually none of it was true.
On the topic of propaganda: here again everyone had bought into a Russian narrative where they were masters of botnets, of subverting politicians, of media control. They had supposedly subverted the German and British governments with their gas and their oligarch money. What we've actually seen is unbelievably clumsy and hamfisted messaging, completely outclassed by Ukraine and the immediate collapse of their supposed influence operations as it turns out that politicians do not stay bought and that having gotten all the money for London property, the British are happy enough to just seize the lot. Turns out that buying a box at Ascot doesn't mean shit when serious geopolitical events happen, a statement which is both blindingly obvious and surprisingly would have been controversial six months ago.
posted by atrazine at 4:18 AM on April 7, 2022 [100 favorites]
To clarify when I wrote that this is a 9-11 scale event I don’t mean to compare the damage to America with the horror happening in Ukraine. I mean that 9-11 and the American response was seen by many as a dividing point in history with policy makers and pundits saying that “9-11 changed everything” and “in the post 9-11 era”. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a similar impact on geopolitics around the world as the west shifts its attention.
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 AM on April 7, 2022 [27 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 AM on April 7, 2022 [27 favorites]
Latest Zelenskyy is a corker. In Russian, he tells Russians to protest war, as it’s better to face off against repression than be labeled Nazis. He also takes aim at Western leaders who are blocking Russian oil embargo.🧵 by Zoya Sheftalovich
There are a number of polyglot national leaders - but I would be hard pressed to think of another one who structured their briefings to multiple audiences with different languages. Note the audience mismatch here: the Ukrainians will understand his Russian - but Russians will be a lot less hot on their Ukranian.
posted by rongorongo at 4:30 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
There are a number of polyglot national leaders - but I would be hard pressed to think of another one who structured their briefings to multiple audiences with different languages. Note the audience mismatch here: the Ukrainians will understand his Russian - but Russians will be a lot less hot on their Ukranian.
posted by rongorongo at 4:30 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
Thanks for the new thread.
In the last thread there was questioning of the figures re forced deportations - Ukrinform, National News agency posted on 27 March that Russia was massively deporting Ukrainians from occupied territories and quotes Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev ''Over the past day alone, more than 19,600 civilians, including 3,300 children, were deported from the temporarily non-government-controlled territories of Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.'' Further: "The occupiers’ defense ministry reports that 90,000 citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, and Russia have already been deported from Kherson region.
According to the ombudsperson, (unnamed so unverfiable) in total, the Russian military claims the extraction of 439,420 civilians "from dangerous areas of Ukraine", of which 91,673 are children; from Mariupol, 98,081 people were relocated, including 183 people in the past 24 hours, “from the arbitrary actions of nationalists.”
posted by adamvasco at 4:32 AM on April 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
In the last thread there was questioning of the figures re forced deportations - Ukrinform, National News agency posted on 27 March that Russia was massively deporting Ukrainians from occupied territories and quotes Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev ''Over the past day alone, more than 19,600 civilians, including 3,300 children, were deported from the temporarily non-government-controlled territories of Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.'' Further: "The occupiers’ defense ministry reports that 90,000 citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, and Russia have already been deported from Kherson region.
According to the ombudsperson, (unnamed so unverfiable) in total, the Russian military claims the extraction of 439,420 civilians "from dangerous areas of Ukraine", of which 91,673 are children; from Mariupol, 98,081 people were relocated, including 183 people in the past 24 hours, “from the arbitrary actions of nationalists.”
posted by adamvasco at 4:32 AM on April 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
…and defensive nationalism, poised to preserve traditions and identities.” Defensive nationalism is common to peoples whose identity is in existential danger.
And here is the crux of it and why it seems easy to find "fascist" elements in Poland and Ukraine. Yes, there are strong nationalists there but it is a reaction to "No, we are not Russians, you will not erase us".
Poland's national anthem starts with "Poland has not yet perished, So long as we still live. What the foreign force has taken from us, We shall with sabre retrieve." It was written in 1797, when the nation did not exist! And when Austria / Prussia / Russia had been trying to wipe out this people for centuries.
This is part of why Poland is so strongly gung ho on supporting Ukraine, they see another brother nation in the same peril. And why the nationalism is so strong and essential to Ukraine.
And from the Russian perspective, Ukrainians saying "we are not Russians" is fascist...
posted by Meatbomb at 4:43 AM on April 7, 2022 [22 favorites]
And here is the crux of it and why it seems easy to find "fascist" elements in Poland and Ukraine. Yes, there are strong nationalists there but it is a reaction to "No, we are not Russians, you will not erase us".
Poland's national anthem starts with "Poland has not yet perished, So long as we still live. What the foreign force has taken from us, We shall with sabre retrieve." It was written in 1797, when the nation did not exist! And when Austria / Prussia / Russia had been trying to wipe out this people for centuries.
This is part of why Poland is so strongly gung ho on supporting Ukraine, they see another brother nation in the same peril. And why the nationalism is so strong and essential to Ukraine.
And from the Russian perspective, Ukrainians saying "we are not Russians" is fascist...
posted by Meatbomb at 4:43 AM on April 7, 2022 [22 favorites]
Heh, Ukraine's hymn starts the same (Ukraine hasn't died yet). Mind you, they had the double-win of being colonised first by the Mongols, then by Poland, and only finally by Russia starting in the 17th century (for the eastern part). With a bonus colonisation by Austria when said Austria nicked a third of Poland, including Lviv and Galicia.
And of course I managed a big error - the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland alone was TWO million before the war. Adding rotation for six-month Schengen visas before getting a more permanent permit, that's probably more like 4 million people who speak both languages and have contacts in Poland. No wonder they mostly fled there.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
And of course I managed a big error - the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland alone was TWO million before the war. Adding rotation for six-month Schengen visas before getting a more permanent permit, that's probably more like 4 million people who speak both languages and have contacts in Poland. No wonder they mostly fled there.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
At no point did these commentators consider that if you have enough helicopters to waste their time that way, that probably means you have a lot of helicopters and that they are maintained, that you have pilots and spares and fuel for them. Or the fact that putting a bunch of American chain restaurants on a base in Afghanistan is not a product of effete softness but of overwhelming imperial logistical superiority. That there is a reason to be "fussy" about the way you store and treat your vehicle tires.
Not only is it a demonstration of incredibly good logistics, it also reminds the soldiers on the ground what they are fighting for. As surprisingly not-bad as modern MREs are compared to previous rations eating nothing else for weeks gets demoralizing. Plus, if you've got that kind of supply chain already in operation it can be repurposed to moving massive amounts of bombs and guns and ammo pretty much instantly should the need arise.
Point being that it's not the waste of money it seems in isolation. It's practice and it's proving and maintaining capabilities necessary to prosecute a war effectively. There are plenty of other places things can go wrong, of course, but those don't matter if you can't first get equipment and supplies where they need to be. It's the foundation on which all other capability rests.
posted by wierdo at 5:07 AM on April 7, 2022 [23 favorites]
Not only is it a demonstration of incredibly good logistics, it also reminds the soldiers on the ground what they are fighting for. As surprisingly not-bad as modern MREs are compared to previous rations eating nothing else for weeks gets demoralizing. Plus, if you've got that kind of supply chain already in operation it can be repurposed to moving massive amounts of bombs and guns and ammo pretty much instantly should the need arise.
Point being that it's not the waste of money it seems in isolation. It's practice and it's proving and maintaining capabilities necessary to prosecute a war effectively. There are plenty of other places things can go wrong, of course, but those don't matter if you can't first get equipment and supplies where they need to be. It's the foundation on which all other capability rests.
posted by wierdo at 5:07 AM on April 7, 2022 [23 favorites]
Not news, but background colour: i follow this account that highlights historical and contemporary Islamic/Muslim art, and for Ramadhan (or Ramadan/Ramzan where you are), they did a thread on mosques around the world, and here's the Sultan Sulaiman mosque in Mariupol: 22/ The Sultan Suleiman Mosque, Mariupol, Ukraine
Named in honour of Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent and his wife Roxelana, who was born in Ukraine. It opened October 15, 2007. The architecture of the mosque was styled after the Süleymaniye Mosque in Istanbul
And in this QT: This lovely mosque thread took me on a ride.
I was curious about Roxelana.
Turns out she was a Ukrainian-born slave girl who rose to power, kicking off a dynasty lasting 150 years of women in power in the 1500s Ottoman Empire.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/women/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/roxelana-c-1504-1558
posted by cendawanita at 5:07 AM on April 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
Named in honour of Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent and his wife Roxelana, who was born in Ukraine. It opened October 15, 2007. The architecture of the mosque was styled after the Süleymaniye Mosque in Istanbul
And in this QT: This lovely mosque thread took me on a ride.
I was curious about Roxelana.
Turns out she was a Ukrainian-born slave girl who rose to power, kicking off a dynasty lasting 150 years of women in power in the 1500s Ottoman Empire.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/women/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/roxelana-c-1504-1558
posted by cendawanita at 5:07 AM on April 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
I saw another photo of the Sultan Suleiman Mosque in Mariupol a while back, and the place looks very nice and inviting.
One thing I found out now, if you search Twitter for ‘Mariupol mosque’ you get many identical or near-identical tweets from accounts that are clearly pro-invasion bots. I don’t know why Twitter doesn’t sweep all those accounts away.
Tangent aside, pictures I’ve seen of Mariupol, a place I’ll admit I’d only heard about before in the context of the 2014 conflict, like in the Twitter thread I shared here a few weeks ago, makes it seem like a fairly lovely city. I hope that enough of it will remain at the end of all this that the inhabitants, when they return, will recognize it as their old home, and will be able to rebuild it as they wish to see it.
posted by Kattullus at 5:31 AM on April 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
One thing I found out now, if you search Twitter for ‘Mariupol mosque’ you get many identical or near-identical tweets from accounts that are clearly pro-invasion bots. I don’t know why Twitter doesn’t sweep all those accounts away.
Tangent aside, pictures I’ve seen of Mariupol, a place I’ll admit I’d only heard about before in the context of the 2014 conflict, like in the Twitter thread I shared here a few weeks ago, makes it seem like a fairly lovely city. I hope that enough of it will remain at the end of all this that the inhabitants, when they return, will recognize it as their old home, and will be able to rebuild it as they wish to see it.
posted by Kattullus at 5:31 AM on April 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
apparently the whole Starlink twitter request was purely stage/statecraft
Shotwell mentioned it in a speech at the beginning of March.
“We had been working on trying to get permission — landing rights — to lay down capacity in Ukraine,” she said, describing it as a part of the company’s broader expansion of Starlink services in Europe and elsewhere. “We had been working with the Ukrainians for a month and a half or so.”
The company, she said, had been waiting for a letter formally granting landing rights, but it never came before Russian forces invaded the country Feb. 24. “But then they tweeted,” she recalled. “There’s our permission.”
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 5:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Shotwell mentioned it in a speech at the beginning of March.
“We had been working on trying to get permission — landing rights — to lay down capacity in Ukraine,” she said, describing it as a part of the company’s broader expansion of Starlink services in Europe and elsewhere. “We had been working with the Ukrainians for a month and a half or so.”
The company, she said, had been waiting for a letter formally granting landing rights, but it never came before Russian forces invaded the country Feb. 24. “But then they tweeted,” she recalled. “There’s our permission.”
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 5:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Putin tried to keep the military force used small and contained
I am not a defense analyst, and I am not *your* defense analyst.
But while this might have been true for the initial push, my impression was that before the withdrawal from around Kyiv that Russia had thrown all the active-duty forces it could spare without leaving Siberia totally undefended or Giving Ideas to separatists in its own peripheral regions.
I mean, yeah, Russia has a huge notional reserve force and notional stockpiles of Soviet equipment sitting around. But I don't think anyone, even Putin, thinks those people and equipment are good for anything more than a last-ditch defense of the motherland.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
I am not a defense analyst, and I am not *your* defense analyst.
But while this might have been true for the initial push, my impression was that before the withdrawal from around Kyiv that Russia had thrown all the active-duty forces it could spare without leaving Siberia totally undefended or Giving Ideas to separatists in its own peripheral regions.
I mean, yeah, Russia has a huge notional reserve force and notional stockpiles of Soviet equipment sitting around. But I don't think anyone, even Putin, thinks those people and equipment are good for anything more than a last-ditch defense of the motherland.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:48 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
The US regularly used their M1 Abrams in the streets of Fallujah in street to street combat. At the time they were mostly invulnerable to the weapons the enemy used. Nowadays, with the increased lethality of small arms (NLAW, Javelin, Stugna-P) being slow, large and heavily armored has become a liability. The US would never use tanks in that fashion again.
It's not quite that simple though. Every country with access to tech is basically figuring out a way to shoot down ATGMs as a defense mechanism. These active protection systems (APS) will sense an incoming round, figure out the trajectory, then fire off flak to basically rip the incoming round apart. Once the incoming round is in pieces the detonator can't detonate the high explosives in the round.
Now to do that requires a ridiculous amount of computing power in a very small space. What can advanced tech economies with access to leading edge lithography do? Israel's one (Trophy) is so effective that it's been basically immune to Hamas's anti-tank weapons and you bet your ass the US bought access to it.
Russia doesn't have tech. It's all imported and everyone with tech is not going to let them get it going forward. The only lithography they have in country is some obsolete 90nm gear they barely know how to use. They've been talking about 65nm for so long it's become a meme. They might as well be hewing transistors from sandstone at this point. That's before you even get to all the ancillary systems, sensors, software expertise, and integration expertise you need to turn transistors and sensors into a working system.
So a T-whatever is going to remain vulnerable to Javelin's death from above style of ATGM for the time being but other forces are developing effective counter measures from shoulder fired ATGMs.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
It's not quite that simple though. Every country with access to tech is basically figuring out a way to shoot down ATGMs as a defense mechanism. These active protection systems (APS) will sense an incoming round, figure out the trajectory, then fire off flak to basically rip the incoming round apart. Once the incoming round is in pieces the detonator can't detonate the high explosives in the round.
Now to do that requires a ridiculous amount of computing power in a very small space. What can advanced tech economies with access to leading edge lithography do? Israel's one (Trophy) is so effective that it's been basically immune to Hamas's anti-tank weapons and you bet your ass the US bought access to it.
Russia doesn't have tech. It's all imported and everyone with tech is not going to let them get it going forward. The only lithography they have in country is some obsolete 90nm gear they barely know how to use. They've been talking about 65nm for so long it's become a meme. They might as well be hewing transistors from sandstone at this point. That's before you even get to all the ancillary systems, sensors, software expertise, and integration expertise you need to turn transistors and sensors into a working system.
So a T-whatever is going to remain vulnerable to Javelin's death from above style of ATGM for the time being but other forces are developing effective counter measures from shoulder fired ATGMs.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
The stories about helicopters delivering MREs and entire barges of icecream supplies as demonstrations of logistical superiority reminds me of this transcript of an British soldier describing how they built a radio while in a Japanese POW camp. It's an amazing story: they scrounged foil from rations to make capacitors, potassium from the pharmacy to make batteries, resistors were string rubbed with powder made from cinnamon bark, rectifying diodes were constructed from salt water and more foil, etc. When they finally got it working after months of effort and tuned into the BBC, the first thing they heard was the chimes of Big Ben followed by a forty-five minute agricultural broadcast. Rather than despair at the lack of news about the war, this cheered them up because:
"if the British primary producing experts are capable and able to spare the time to talk about growing hops in Kent, Britain must still be alive and floating with their thumbs up, and as far as I'm concerned that's the best news I could hear!"posted by autopilot at 6:57 AM on April 7, 2022 [78 favorites]
Russian reporters open outlet in Europe after Moscow-based paper suspends publication. "Russian journalists from investigative paper Novaya Gazeta said on Thursday they were launching a new media outlet in Europe after their paper suspended its activities over warnings it received from the authorities."
Novaya Gazeta, editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was co-winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize. He dedicated his Nobel Peace Prize to the memory of six of his paper's journalists who were murdered for their work.
posted by storybored at 8:09 AM on April 7, 2022 [19 favorites]
Novaya Gazeta, editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was co-winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize. He dedicated his Nobel Peace Prize to the memory of six of his paper's journalists who were murdered for their work.
posted by storybored at 8:09 AM on April 7, 2022 [19 favorites]
What I haven't seen almost anywhere is the acceptance that the day of armor dominance of the battlefield is over, and we're seeing that in Ukraine. The huge second order effects of this shift are pretty scary to think about—or hopeful, it you're an optimistic type, like I am.
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 8:26 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 8:26 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
What I haven't seen almost anywhere is the acceptance that the day of armor dominance of the battlefield is over, and we're seeing that in Ukraine.
We're not seeing that at all. The only thing we're seeing in Ukraine is a victory of electronic over mechanical. Active Protection Systems are the next generation of defense for main battle tanks and are specifically made to intercept shoulder fired AT rounds. The US has been working on fire control tech and projectiles which enables howitzers, half a million bucks a unit, a rounding error for most US military hardware, to shoot down cruise missiles.
The gap will be between those who have tech and those who don't.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
We're not seeing that at all. The only thing we're seeing in Ukraine is a victory of electronic over mechanical. Active Protection Systems are the next generation of defense for main battle tanks and are specifically made to intercept shoulder fired AT rounds. The US has been working on fire control tech and projectiles which enables howitzers, half a million bucks a unit, a rounding error for most US military hardware, to shoot down cruise missiles.
The gap will be between those who have tech and those who don't.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:50 AM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
FWIW, the resolution to suspend Russia from the UNHRC has passed. No news link yet, but IIRC the vote was 93 for, 24 against, 58 abstaining. Here's a stream, currently of the vote explanations.
posted by jammer at 8:53 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by jammer at 8:53 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
> IIRC the vote was 93 for, 24 against, 58 abstaining.
Confirming that was correct. Full roll call [JPG].
posted by jammer at 8:57 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Confirming that was correct. Full roll call [JPG].
posted by jammer at 8:57 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's a stream, currently of the vote explanations.
Can anyone explain these votes? Are the Asian countries largely voting with China, or is there something else going on, like general dislike of the West?
posted by corb at 9:22 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Can anyone explain these votes? Are the Asian countries largely voting with China, or is there something else going on, like general dislike of the West?
posted by corb at 9:22 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
>Perhaps the end of the beginning
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Churchill in November 1942, after Rommel's Afrika Korps was smashed in its positions 75 miles from Alexandria and forced into a retreat with it finally being bagged in Tunisia the following May.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:22 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Churchill in November 1942, after Rommel's Afrika Korps was smashed in its positions 75 miles from Alexandria and forced into a retreat with it finally being bagged in Tunisia the following May.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:22 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
> Are the Asian countries largely voting with China, or is there something else going on, like general dislike of the West?
I don't want to drift too far from the Ukrainian topic, but apparently Russia was "campaigning" heavily for developing countries to vote against the resolution. I suspect that may have swayed a few to join the Usual Suspects, on top of the other agendas you mention.
posted by jammer at 9:31 AM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't want to drift too far from the Ukrainian topic, but apparently Russia was "campaigning" heavily for developing countries to vote against the resolution. I suspect that may have swayed a few to join the Usual Suspects, on top of the other agendas you mention.
posted by jammer at 9:31 AM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
General recommendation for people wondering about some of the more military aspects of the war: Perun is an Aussie gamer vlogger but whom as it turns out is Doing Something in defence for his day job. He has been doing a couple of videos this past month laying out in a clear and understandable way why he thinks the Russian invasion ground down so quickly, as well as what the war is telling us
All Bling, no Basics - Why Ukraine has embarrassed the Russian Military argues that Russia has just built the wrong army for what they're trying to do in Ukraine.
"Sending their best" - Debunking the myth of Russian 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine debunks the idea that the first phase of the war and the reorientation to the Donbas was all according to plan.
Drones in Ukraine - lessons for other countries looks at how Ukraine used drones as a force multiplier and what that means for other countries.
End of the Tank? - ATGMs and shoulder fired anti-tank weapons in Ukraine is the same, but for what Ukraine's use of modern ATGMs means for the future of the tank.
Reservists and irregulars in Ukraine - "A people at war" on how Ukraine's almost total mobilisation and use of people who were civilians until February has freed up regular soldiers to actually fight.
posted by MartinWisse at 9:39 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
All Bling, no Basics - Why Ukraine has embarrassed the Russian Military argues that Russia has just built the wrong army for what they're trying to do in Ukraine.
"Sending their best" - Debunking the myth of Russian 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine debunks the idea that the first phase of the war and the reorientation to the Donbas was all according to plan.
Drones in Ukraine - lessons for other countries looks at how Ukraine used drones as a force multiplier and what that means for other countries.
End of the Tank? - ATGMs and shoulder fired anti-tank weapons in Ukraine is the same, but for what Ukraine's use of modern ATGMs means for the future of the tank.
Reservists and irregulars in Ukraine - "A people at war" on how Ukraine's almost total mobilisation and use of people who were civilians until February has freed up regular soldiers to actually fight.
posted by MartinWisse at 9:39 AM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
Re: UNHRC vote -- As a Malaysian it's been enraging, like do we need another one of our civilian airplanes to be shot down before growing a spine? But the fascist brain rot is real -- the establishment elite would rather entertain Russian conspiracy theories and/or reflexive dismissal of western intelligence because of course 'they' encourage *insert antisemitic homophobic rank nonsense here*, to the extent we didn't even evacuate our embassy in Kyiv until 2 days into the invasion because the brainrot is deep. It only ever seems to be mitigated if we clown them enough on twitter especially - then we can expect policy reversals, which of course cannot include foreign affairs stuff until it's too late.
posted by cendawanita at 9:46 AM on April 7, 2022 [35 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 9:46 AM on April 7, 2022 [35 favorites]
As part of my daily grind I find myself on a Shipping service mailing list which may be of interest: Ukraine Update
• As of 08:00 07.04.22: entrance / exit to the ports of Mykolaiv, Olvia, Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi are closed.
• Izmail, Reni, Ust-Dunaisk are handling vessels going up the Danube and Black Sea direction via the Sulina canal.
• Security level is 3. Curfew time is from 21:00 to 06:00.
• The north-western part of the Black Sea is blocked by the Russian Federation allegedly "for a counter-terrorist operation” and the area is closed for navigation by Ukraine.
• Reported some mines are drifting in the North Western Part of Black Sea.
Incidents
1. On February 26, 2022, during the humanitarian mission in the area of Zmiiny Island, the rescue ship " SAPPHIRE" was captured and detained by Russian warships. All crew alive. On March 09, 2022 the vessel started moving to Crimea under Russian convoy. 11.03 the vessel was found alongside in Sevastopol. 17 ukrainian crew / passengers are detained. On March 25, 2022 crew of “Sapphire” was released by exchanging for relevant quantity of captured Russian navy.
2. On February 27, 2022 MV Afina (IMO 8029272) Flag Ukraine was captured by Russian Navy in the area of Zmiiny Island. – Vessel released.
3. On February 27, 2022 MV Princess Nikol (IMO 8319392) Flag Ukraine was captured by Russian Navy in the area of Zmiiny Island.
4. On March 01, 2022 reported that MV Helt (IMO 8402589) located at OPL area (abt 30 nm from Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi) is contacted by Russian navy. At the moment no movement of the vessel. On 03.03 the vessel sank. No victims.
5. On March 02, 2022 living accommodation of MV Banglar Samriddhi (IMO 9793832) at roads of Olvia (Nikolaev region) was damaged by Russian rocket. Reported 1 Bangladesh crew member died.
6. On March 03, 2022 Ukrainian navy vessel Slavyansk was attacked by Russian aviation. Vessel sank, no news about crew.
7. Ukrainian sources reported Russian navy Patrol boat “Vasiliy Bykov” was damaged by Ukrainian shore artillery on March 07, 2022. Still no comments from Russian side.
8. On March 15, 2022 5 foreign gen cargo and bulk vessels (Admiral IMO 8408648, Firat, IMO 8310384, Ghada A IMO 7126102, Princess Rawya IMO 9119907, Maori IMO: 9874208) started moving from Berdyansk (is currently under Russian occupants army control) to the anchorage at of Kerch strait. Reported by one of shipping agents the vessels will be released and proceed with cargo delivery upon weather improvement.
9. On March 24, 2022 Ukrainian navy reported large landing ship of Russian Federation “Orsk” was destroyed while alongside in Berdyansk. Russian navy ship “Saratov” got a critical damage and sank by crew, ships “Cesar Kunnikov” and “Novocherkassk” were damaged. Still no comments from Russian side.
On March 25, 2022 Ukrainian navy reported a correction to above incident asf: Russian Federation “Saratov” was destroyed while in Berdyansk. ships “Cesar Kunnikov” and “Novocherkassk” were damaged.
10. On March 26, 2022 one drifting mine was found in Bosporus strait and neutralized.
11. On March 27, 2022 a mine has been spotted near the shore side in the area of Ineada by the Turkey coast guard. The mine was neutralized.
12. On March 28, 2022 a mine has been spotted by Romanian fish trawler “Olimpus-1” about 70-72 km from the Romanian shore side, in the area of Korbu and Nevodare.
13. On April 3, 2022 Russian navy frigate type 11356P (most probably “Admiral Essen”) was damaged by Ukrainian army. Details are not disclosed so far.
14. On April 4, 2022 MV Azburg at pier#16 at Mariupol was shelled and damaged. No victims reported.
15. On April 6, 2022 Turkish sappers neutralized a sea mine found in the area of the Kefken region (Kocaeli province) in the Black Sea.
posted by adamvasco at 9:46 AM on April 7, 2022 [20 favorites]
• As of 08:00 07.04.22: entrance / exit to the ports of Mykolaiv, Olvia, Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi are closed.
• Izmail, Reni, Ust-Dunaisk are handling vessels going up the Danube and Black Sea direction via the Sulina canal.
• Security level is 3. Curfew time is from 21:00 to 06:00.
• The north-western part of the Black Sea is blocked by the Russian Federation allegedly "for a counter-terrorist operation” and the area is closed for navigation by Ukraine.
• Reported some mines are drifting in the North Western Part of Black Sea.
Incidents
1. On February 26, 2022, during the humanitarian mission in the area of Zmiiny Island, the rescue ship " SAPPHIRE" was captured and detained by Russian warships. All crew alive. On March 09, 2022 the vessel started moving to Crimea under Russian convoy. 11.03 the vessel was found alongside in Sevastopol. 17 ukrainian crew / passengers are detained. On March 25, 2022 crew of “Sapphire” was released by exchanging for relevant quantity of captured Russian navy.
2. On February 27, 2022 MV Afina (IMO 8029272) Flag Ukraine was captured by Russian Navy in the area of Zmiiny Island. – Vessel released.
3. On February 27, 2022 MV Princess Nikol (IMO 8319392) Flag Ukraine was captured by Russian Navy in the area of Zmiiny Island.
4. On March 01, 2022 reported that MV Helt (IMO 8402589) located at OPL area (abt 30 nm from Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi) is contacted by Russian navy. At the moment no movement of the vessel. On 03.03 the vessel sank. No victims.
5. On March 02, 2022 living accommodation of MV Banglar Samriddhi (IMO 9793832) at roads of Olvia (Nikolaev region) was damaged by Russian rocket. Reported 1 Bangladesh crew member died.
6. On March 03, 2022 Ukrainian navy vessel Slavyansk was attacked by Russian aviation. Vessel sank, no news about crew.
7. Ukrainian sources reported Russian navy Patrol boat “Vasiliy Bykov” was damaged by Ukrainian shore artillery on March 07, 2022. Still no comments from Russian side.
8. On March 15, 2022 5 foreign gen cargo and bulk vessels (Admiral IMO 8408648, Firat, IMO 8310384, Ghada A IMO 7126102, Princess Rawya IMO 9119907, Maori IMO: 9874208) started moving from Berdyansk (is currently under Russian occupants army control) to the anchorage at of Kerch strait. Reported by one of shipping agents the vessels will be released and proceed with cargo delivery upon weather improvement.
9. On March 24, 2022 Ukrainian navy reported large landing ship of Russian Federation “Orsk” was destroyed while alongside in Berdyansk. Russian navy ship “Saratov” got a critical damage and sank by crew, ships “Cesar Kunnikov” and “Novocherkassk” were damaged. Still no comments from Russian side.
On March 25, 2022 Ukrainian navy reported a correction to above incident asf: Russian Federation “Saratov” was destroyed while in Berdyansk. ships “Cesar Kunnikov” and “Novocherkassk” were damaged.
10. On March 26, 2022 one drifting mine was found in Bosporus strait and neutralized.
11. On March 27, 2022 a mine has been spotted near the shore side in the area of Ineada by the Turkey coast guard. The mine was neutralized.
12. On March 28, 2022 a mine has been spotted by Romanian fish trawler “Olimpus-1” about 70-72 km from the Romanian shore side, in the area of Korbu and Nevodare.
13. On April 3, 2022 Russian navy frigate type 11356P (most probably “Admiral Essen”) was damaged by Ukrainian army. Details are not disclosed so far.
14. On April 4, 2022 MV Azburg at pier#16 at Mariupol was shelled and damaged. No victims reported.
15. On April 6, 2022 Turkish sappers neutralized a sea mine found in the area of the Kefken region (Kocaeli province) in the Black Sea.
posted by adamvasco at 9:46 AM on April 7, 2022 [20 favorites]
The pro-tank folks point out that the problems we see here are not new. Tanks are ineffective when they are not protected by air defense and infantry. When those are lacking tanks get destroyed easily by aircraft and infantry with shoulder launched missiles.
Tanks are also evolving. It is my understanding that the latest models of the M1 Abrams have had a lot of electronics packed into them with the idea that they kind of become a mobile forward data center linking and routing data between drones, aircraft and other combatants and combat systems. All of this can feed back into the tanks big gun and be used to do traditional tank like things in terms of breaking through enemy lines.
posted by interogative mood at 9:58 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tanks are also evolving. It is my understanding that the latest models of the M1 Abrams have had a lot of electronics packed into them with the idea that they kind of become a mobile forward data center linking and routing data between drones, aircraft and other combatants and combat systems. All of this can feed back into the tanks big gun and be used to do traditional tank like things in terms of breaking through enemy lines.
posted by interogative mood at 9:58 AM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
I forgot to add that it should be noted that most of the equipment Russia is trying to fight this war with was designed and often manufactured in the Soviet era and is now obsolete. It is hard to know if Russian tanks are just are obsolete because they old and outdated. Or are tanks obsolete because tanks themselves are obsolete and have gone the way of the phalanx, battleship and horse cavalry?
posted by interogative mood at 10:21 AM on April 7, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 10:21 AM on April 7, 2022
the day of armor dominance of the battlefield is over
It's perhaps worth noting that Jules Verne argued this very point more than a century ago in From The Earth To The Moon. Man-portable weapons, drones... tanks ruled the world for decades, but now they're like aircraft carriers: distinct targets.
posted by SPrintF at 10:41 AM on April 7, 2022
It's perhaps worth noting that Jules Verne argued this very point more than a century ago in From The Earth To The Moon. Man-portable weapons, drones... tanks ruled the world for decades, but now they're like aircraft carriers: distinct targets.
posted by SPrintF at 10:41 AM on April 7, 2022
I feel like Russia's poor performance is mostly not a tank tech problem. Having old Soviet tech isn't helping, but they are also running out of fuel and food. Russia is bad at the basics, and no cool tech can fix that. That's not the tank's fault.
posted by ryanrs at 10:58 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 10:58 AM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Nobel Peace prize winner Muratov just had red paint thrown at him on the train from Moscow to Samara, on the way to visit his mother. The guy who threw it reportedly shouted "That's for our boys."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:14 AM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:14 AM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Guardian: Russian soldiers ‘discussed killing civilians’ in Ukraine in radio intercepts
In one of the radio conversations, a Russian voice is heard telling someone how he and another soldier shot a person who had been on a bicycle. One of the many pictures of the atrocities to have gone around the world in recent days was of the corpse of a person next to a bicycle.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:03 PM on April 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
In another communication, a man was heard saying: “Firstly you question the soldier, then you shoot them.” The impression given was that the soldiers were talking matter-of-factly about the killings as if they were discussing everyday activities, the MPs were told, according to Spiegel.
Feel sorry for the conscripts, but...
Good.
Fuck Putin and this bullshit.
posted by Windopaene at 12:41 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Good.
Fuck Putin and this bullshit.
posted by Windopaene at 12:41 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
There shouldn't be any conscripts in Ukraine, because legally Russia can only call them up in a state of war and this is a special operation. For the same reason the current crop of conscripts, who have almost finished their year of service, cannot be retained but have to be swapped out for the new crop.
And yes, although it sounds strange compared with what other crimes Putin is doing, having a veneer of legality is still important to him.
What does seem to happen is conscripts being strong armed to become contract soldiers, even more so than they already were.
posted by MartinWisse at 12:46 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
And yes, although it sounds strange compared with what other crimes Putin is doing, having a veneer of legality is still important to him.
What does seem to happen is conscripts being strong armed to become contract soldiers, even more so than they already were.
posted by MartinWisse at 12:46 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
A german-language take on the issue of westsplaining, with some historical background espcially for readers in the US, less used to seeing ethno-geographies in the same light as race differences.
The author references Inventing Eastern Europe: The Map of Civilization on the Mind of the Enlightenment by Larry Wolff.
posted by doggod at 12:48 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
The author references Inventing Eastern Europe: The Map of Civilization on the Mind of the Enlightenment by Larry Wolff.
posted by doggod at 12:48 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
From comments on a paywalled article about Russian equipment losses confirmed by public domain images (2500+ major items including 3 ships):
What do you call a Russian armoured brigade on its way out of Ukraine? An infantry platoon.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:49 PM on April 7, 2022 [32 favorites]
What do you call a Russian armoured brigade on its way out of Ukraine? An infantry platoon.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:49 PM on April 7, 2022 [32 favorites]
Do Russians tell the truth when they say they support the war in Ukraine? Evidence from a list experiment. "When asked directly, 68% of our respondents stated that they personally supported the war – a two-thirds majority. However, when using the list experiment to assess the support for the invasion, this share drops significantly, to 53%."
posted by BungaDunga at 1:02 PM on April 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 1:02 PM on April 7, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm glad we can have little bits of levity in these threads. Here's mine for the day: Excited Finnish snipers pose in group photo amid Russian threats.
I wonder if the paywalled article is pulling on the (open source) equipment losses that Oryx continues to document? His list. I'm in awe at the work he's put into it, especially since some of his source materials look like this.
posted by vers at 1:04 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
I wonder if the paywalled article is pulling on the (open source) equipment losses that Oryx continues to document? His list. I'm in awe at the work he's put into it, especially since some of his source materials look like this.
posted by vers at 1:04 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
I'm playing a game, (WWII), online with a guy from Finland. About a week or so ago, he emailed. sorry, away from my computer for a month, will explain later.
Hope he is in this picture
posted by Windopaene at 1:11 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
Hope he is in this picture
posted by Windopaene at 1:11 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
CNN: Russia has lost 79 planes to sanctions
🤔
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:13 PM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
New York (CNN Business)Sanctions put in place in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have caused the nation's air carriers to lose 79 of their commercial jets, nearly 10% of their combined fleets.A german-language take on the issue of westsplaining, with some historical background espcially for readers in the US
The sanctions by multiple countries require the international aircraft leasing companies that own the jets to have repossessed them by the end of March. All the repossessed jets were outside of Russia at the time, and the leasing companies have either repossessed them or started the process to do so in court, according to Cirium, an aviation analytics firm that tracks information about aircraft around the world.
🤔
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:13 PM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
“That's a remarkable admission.”
What the Ministry of Defense has officially stated about casualties has been, from the start, remarkable: 498 troops killed by March 2 (eight days into the war, or 62 per day) and then later said that 1,351 troops have been killed by March 25th. That's at thirty-one days into the war, for 44 killed per day.
For comparison, the USSR's invasion and occupation of Afghanistan (widely agreed to have contributed to the fall of the USSR) lasted for 3,341 days, with a total of 14,453 troops killed, or about 4 per day.
The US's full involvement in the Vietnam War similarly lasted about 3,470 days. Total troops killed were high at about 58,000, or about 16 per day.
The US's invasion and occupation of Afghanistan lasted more than twice as long as 7,267 days. Total troops killed were 2,420, or about 3 per day.
So, at present, Russia (officially) has had 44 troops killed per day.
These are the official MoD figures, which understates them by at least a factor of three or four. This is a very, very high number. It's possible that Russia has already lost almost as many soldiers in Ukraine as the USSR did in Afghanistan but at a hundred times the rate.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 1:47 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
What the Ministry of Defense has officially stated about casualties has been, from the start, remarkable: 498 troops killed by March 2 (eight days into the war, or 62 per day) and then later said that 1,351 troops have been killed by March 25th. That's at thirty-one days into the war, for 44 killed per day.
For comparison, the USSR's invasion and occupation of Afghanistan (widely agreed to have contributed to the fall of the USSR) lasted for 3,341 days, with a total of 14,453 troops killed, or about 4 per day.
The US's full involvement in the Vietnam War similarly lasted about 3,470 days. Total troops killed were high at about 58,000, or about 16 per day.
The US's invasion and occupation of Afghanistan lasted more than twice as long as 7,267 days. Total troops killed were 2,420, or about 3 per day.
So, at present, Russia (officially) has had 44 troops killed per day.
These are the official MoD figures, which understates them by at least a factor of three or four. This is a very, very high number. It's possible that Russia has already lost almost as many soldiers in Ukraine as the USSR did in Afghanistan but at a hundred times the rate.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 1:47 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
Operation Barbarossa lasted 166 days had 3,137,673 Soviets killed or missing a staggering 18,901 killed per day.
posted by geoff. at 1:53 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by geoff. at 1:53 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Pink Floyd - Hey Hey Rise Up (feat. Andriy Khlyvnyuk of Boombox)
posted by bcd at 2:49 PM on April 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
'Hey Hey Rise Up', released in support of the people of Ukraine, sees David Gilmour and Nick Mason joined by long time Pink Floyd bass player Guy Pratt and Nitin Sawhney on keyboards, all accompanying an extraordinary vocal by Andriy Khlyvnyuk of Ukrainian band Boombox. All proceeds go to Ukrainian Humanitarian Relief.Translation of the lyrics and more details can be found on the Wikipedia page about the original song.
The track uses Andriy’s vocals taken from his Instagram post of him in Kyiv’s Sofiyskaya Square singing ‘Oh, The Red Viburnum In The Meadow’, a rousing Ukrainian folk protest song written during the first world war. The title of the Pink Floyd track is taken from the last line of the song which translates as ‘Hey, hey, rise up and rejoice’.
posted by bcd at 2:49 PM on April 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
highly informative post, thanks for posting it.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 6
Apr 6, 2022
"The US and NATO should take a strong stance on any Russian threat to use its military forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine."
posted by clavdivs at 2:54 PM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 6
Apr 6, 2022
"The US and NATO should take a strong stance on any Russian threat to use its military forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine."
posted by clavdivs at 2:54 PM on April 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 7
fast forward to today
posted by ryanrs at 3:10 PM on April 7, 2022
fast forward to today
posted by ryanrs at 3:10 PM on April 7, 2022
Thanks! seems they released it in my preview.
4-7 Key Takeaways
"Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.
Russian forces are setting conditions for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming days, but damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable a successful Russian breakthrough.
Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian attacks from Izyum southeast toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. However, these units are highly unlikely to launch new offensive operations, and Ukrainian units around Kyiv can likely safely redeploy to eastern Ukraine.
Western sanctions are likely successfully disrupting Russia’s military-industrial base."
At this point, Putin's goal seems likely to protract the war with his 3rd rate army.
posted by clavdivs at 3:23 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
4-7 Key Takeaways
"Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.
Russian forces are setting conditions for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming days, but damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable a successful Russian breakthrough.
Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian attacks from Izyum southeast toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. However, these units are highly unlikely to launch new offensive operations, and Ukrainian units around Kyiv can likely safely redeploy to eastern Ukraine.
Western sanctions are likely successfully disrupting Russia’s military-industrial base."
At this point, Putin's goal seems likely to protract the war with his 3rd rate army.
posted by clavdivs at 3:23 PM on April 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Regarding those reports from the Institute for the Study of War - from the names I recognize of their their board of directors I get an icky feeling. I see Bill Kristol, Joe Lieberman, and a climate denying Trump appointee ambassador. If people come across alternative studies, I'd love to see them posted here.
posted by brachiopod at 3:47 PM on April 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by brachiopod at 3:47 PM on April 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
> If people come across alternative studies, I'd love to see them posted here.
They are undoubtedly a conservative think-tank, but from what I've read here and elsewhere, their analyses on this topic in particular seem fairly astute and among the more thorough one can find. I'm definitely open to similarly comprehensive analysis from less-reprehensible sources, but I don't think they're doing too badly on this one point.
posted by jammer at 4:00 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
They are undoubtedly a conservative think-tank, but from what I've read here and elsewhere, their analyses on this topic in particular seem fairly astute and among the more thorough one can find. I'm definitely open to similarly comprehensive analysis from less-reprehensible sources, but I don't think they're doing too badly on this one point.
posted by jammer at 4:00 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yes vers, humour even if dark is very helpful, Here's a sniper being interviewed
"I studied badly at school, when I was bored I looked out the window, my teacher told me that when I grew up, no one would pay me to look at the window, and I grew up, I look at the window and they pay me for it" I saw a subtitled version last night, can't find now, but at the end he faces the camera and thanks his school teacher.
posted by unearthed at 4:12 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
"I studied badly at school, when I was bored I looked out the window, my teacher told me that when I grew up, no one would pay me to look at the window, and I grew up, I look at the window and they pay me for it" I saw a subtitled version last night, can't find now, but at the end he faces the camera and thanks his school teacher.
posted by unearthed at 4:12 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
ISW is has its roots as a neocon think tank. They were part of the same group that came up with the whole surge strategy in Iraq. So feel icky. However they are also extremely plugged into the US defense establishment. Their reporting tends to reflect what those folks are saying privately to the President and key policy makers. So far their daily reports seem to have been pretty accurate.
posted by interogative mood at 4:14 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:14 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
I went looking for a translation of Szczepan Twardoch's German language essay in NZZ.ch (which actually is titled dear West European intellectuals) and found another, IMO better suited to US Readers article, also by Polish intellectuals, addressed to a US audience, in English, "The American Pundits Who Can’t Resist “Westsplaining” Ukraine", in the New Republic. If you already exceeded the three Free articles, i accessed it through incognito mode.
Here a quote which sums up their take:
"In the westsplaining framework, the concerns of Russia are recognized but those of Eastern Europe are not. This, again, mirrors the Russian line that “Ukraine’s current regime lacks any sovereignty,” which of course also operates within a framework inherited from the bipolar world of the Cold War. Eastern Europe is something that can be explained but isn’t worth engaging with.
If the westsplainers were to engage in intellectually honest critique of NATO and its expansion and therefore of the war in Ukraine, they would have to, by extension, critique Eastern European politicians and voters who have adopted (although in some cases, like Poland and Hungary, quite spottily) the Western ideals of democracy and national self-determination. They would have to acknowledge that their ideas for how to end the conflict—vague calls for diplomacy or even opposition to NATO, even as Ukrainians on the ground call for active support—may represent American preferences for avoiding conflict or opposing NATO rather than those of Ukrainians.
The result is that hard-nosed realists see the world not as it is but as it appears in their theories and, worse, that Western internationalism, which claims to stand in solidarity with the oppressed, does the opposite: It asks the subaltern to speak, only to ignore them when they ask for military support or self-determination.
Of course, there is no single Eastern European voice and we do not pretend to ventriloquize it. Nor do we offer our ownThe result is that hard-nosed realists see the world not as it is but as it appears in their theories and, worse, that Western internationalism, which claims to stand in solidarity with the oppressed, does the opposite: It asks the subaltern to speak, only to ignore them when they ask for military support or self-determination.
Of course, there is no single Eastern European voice and we do not pretend to ventriloquize it. Nor do we offer our own prescriptions; better ones than we could offer have already been given by the Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Polish left. But any analysis of the current conflict needs to get past a framework that only gives voice and agency to the West and to Russia and start listening to Eastern Europeans, especially since it is Eastern Europe that will be dealing with the repercussions of the current war for years to come."
Authors
Jan Smoleński @jan_smolenski
Jan Smoleński is a lecturer at the University of Warsaw and a Ph.D. candidate at the New School for Social Research. He has published essays in Gazeta Wyborcza, Rzeczpospolita, Tygodnik Powszechny, and Krytyka Polityczna.
Jan Dutkiewicz @jan_dutkiewicz
Jan Dutkiewicz is a postdoctoral fellow at Concordia University in Montreal and a visiting fellow in the Animal Law and Policy Program at Harvard University.
posted by 15L06 at 4:16 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
Here a quote which sums up their take:
"In the westsplaining framework, the concerns of Russia are recognized but those of Eastern Europe are not. This, again, mirrors the Russian line that “Ukraine’s current regime lacks any sovereignty,” which of course also operates within a framework inherited from the bipolar world of the Cold War. Eastern Europe is something that can be explained but isn’t worth engaging with.
If the westsplainers were to engage in intellectually honest critique of NATO and its expansion and therefore of the war in Ukraine, they would have to, by extension, critique Eastern European politicians and voters who have adopted (although in some cases, like Poland and Hungary, quite spottily) the Western ideals of democracy and national self-determination. They would have to acknowledge that their ideas for how to end the conflict—vague calls for diplomacy or even opposition to NATO, even as Ukrainians on the ground call for active support—may represent American preferences for avoiding conflict or opposing NATO rather than those of Ukrainians.
The result is that hard-nosed realists see the world not as it is but as it appears in their theories and, worse, that Western internationalism, which claims to stand in solidarity with the oppressed, does the opposite: It asks the subaltern to speak, only to ignore them when they ask for military support or self-determination.
Of course, there is no single Eastern European voice and we do not pretend to ventriloquize it. Nor do we offer our ownThe result is that hard-nosed realists see the world not as it is but as it appears in their theories and, worse, that Western internationalism, which claims to stand in solidarity with the oppressed, does the opposite: It asks the subaltern to speak, only to ignore them when they ask for military support or self-determination.
Of course, there is no single Eastern European voice and we do not pretend to ventriloquize it. Nor do we offer our own prescriptions; better ones than we could offer have already been given by the Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Polish left. But any analysis of the current conflict needs to get past a framework that only gives voice and agency to the West and to Russia and start listening to Eastern Europeans, especially since it is Eastern Europe that will be dealing with the repercussions of the current war for years to come."
Authors
Jan Smoleński @jan_smolenski
Jan Smoleński is a lecturer at the University of Warsaw and a Ph.D. candidate at the New School for Social Research. He has published essays in Gazeta Wyborcza, Rzeczpospolita, Tygodnik Powszechny, and Krytyka Polityczna.
Jan Dutkiewicz @jan_dutkiewicz
Jan Dutkiewicz is a postdoctoral fellow at Concordia University in Montreal and a visiting fellow in the Animal Law and Policy Program at Harvard University.
posted by 15L06 at 4:16 PM on April 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
Upthread someone asked where the refugees from Ukraine go. UNHCR has regular updates.
posted by 15L06 at 4:35 PM on April 7, 2022
posted by 15L06 at 4:35 PM on April 7, 2022
Re Updates. I think that the ISW is not a helpful source about the war in Ukraine. The reports are titled "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT", and that is what you get, a campaign assessment of what the Russians do by a US think Tank.
An alternative is this, from map hub:
The Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map is a crowdsourced effort by Centre for Information Resilience (https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes), Bellingcat, Conflict Intelligence Team, Advance Democracy and the wider open source community to map, document and verify significant incidents during the conflict in Ukraine.
The aim of our work is to provide reliable information to the world.
Explainer and Info at bellingcat
posted by 15L06 at 4:57 PM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
An alternative is this, from map hub:
The Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map is a crowdsourced effort by Centre for Information Resilience (https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes), Bellingcat, Conflict Intelligence Team, Advance Democracy and the wider open source community to map, document and verify significant incidents during the conflict in Ukraine.
The aim of our work is to provide reliable information to the world.
Explainer and Info at bellingcat
posted by 15L06 at 4:57 PM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
I do think that the map 15L06 linked to is a valuable resource but the great value of the ISW reports for me is that they provide a quick and clear daily answer to "How is Russia doing today?"
Tracking everything represented on the monitor map is important but it's pretty incomprehensible to me as a guide to what is happening with the progress of the invasion. Perhaps the ISW report is only giving me illusory insight, and I assume its lack of information on Ukrainian troop movements is 100% intentional for operational security reasons, but I find it helpful.
posted by Wretch729 at 5:06 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Tracking everything represented on the monitor map is important but it's pretty incomprehensible to me as a guide to what is happening with the progress of the invasion. Perhaps the ISW report is only giving me illusory insight, and I assume its lack of information on Ukrainian troop movements is 100% intentional for operational security reasons, but I find it helpful.
posted by Wretch729 at 5:06 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Operator Starsky is a Ukrainian public affairs officer so obviously not unbiased but his daily reports are still worth watching.
Here's today: Day 43 (Short Update), yesterday: Day 42 and the most recent viewer Q&A (Day 40).
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's today: Day 43 (Short Update), yesterday: Day 42 and the most recent viewer Q&A (Day 40).
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
[source discussion might be better served in a different thread, source additions are most welcome, I'll add Aljazeera]
posted by clavdivs at 5:14 PM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 5:14 PM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
> In the last thread there was questioning of the figures re forced deportations..If you were referring to my question, asked in the last thread, it wasn't so much questioning the quantitative claims on the number of forced deportations to Russia but the assertion (which I have not seen reported elsewhere) that "deportees have been stripped of their passports and forced to sign papers saying they will remain in Russia in the districts they are moved to for two years to work without payment, rendering them as slaves."
And I'll repeat that I don't rule out that it could be happening, just that I would like to see reporting on it from a source whose reputation I know how to assess before accepting the claim at face value. I have no doubt that the situation of any Ukrainian citizens forcibly removed to Russia is very grim indeed, but am still curious about that specific article's claim.
Even if they have not been stripped of their passports, of course, it would be prohibitively dangerous to try to re-enter Ukraine to return home and travel out of Russia is not easy at the moment, even under the best circumstances for those who have resources (which one would not expect to apply to those forcibly evacuated.)
posted by Nerd of the North at 5:33 PM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Source: Attorney General of Ukraine, Iryna Venediktova, announced the opening of an investigation into possible war crimes committed by Russia in connection with the forced transfer of residents of the besieged city of Mariupol. Venediktova stated, through her Twitter account, that under the pretext of evacuation, the Russian Army is transferring residents to Russian territory and stripping them of their passports. The Mariupol City Council reported on Sunday night, through its Telegram account, that some inhabitants of the Levoberezhny district had been “illegally deported to enemy territory” and transported to Russia or territories occupied by Moscow. “Deportees take away their Ukrainian passport and give them a paper that has no legal validity and is not recognized by the civilized world,” added the city authorities.
posted by adamvasco at 5:59 PM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 5:59 PM on April 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
NBC: Bold, effective and risky: The new strategy the U.S. is using in the info war against Russia
Worth a read, especially for the risks of this strategy.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:05 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
It was an attention-grabbing assertion that made headlines around the world: U.S. officials said they had indications suggesting Russia might be preparing to use chemical agents in Ukraine.
President Joe Biden later said it publicly. But three U.S. officials told NBC News this week there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine. They said the U.S. released the information to deter Russia from using the banned munitions.
Worth a read, especially for the risks of this strategy.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:05 PM on April 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Another great source of information is this page created by Oryx. They are maintaining a tally of equipment losses where there is photographic confirmation of the damage, destruction or abandonment of Ukrainian and Russian military hardware (planes, tanks, MRAPs, etc).
The places I go to fairly regularly to get updates are:
posted by interogative mood at 6:42 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
The places I go to fairly regularly to get updates are:
- ISW daily reports (with caveats described above). They do provide lots of citations on their daily reports and are deeper that a lot of the hot takes you see on the web that lack any citations or evidence.
- Oryx -- There is always a tendency for militaries to overstate their successes and it isn't necessarily on purpose; stuff gets double and tripple counted all the time. Photographic evidence sets a lower bound on Russian loses.
- Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map the community that is keeping it up to date seems great and has been going for a long time.
- OSIntDefender (Twitter) -- a good twitter feed of open source intelligence reports and goes beyond just Ukraine. Recently profiled with some similar feeds in the Washington Post.
- Adam Something (YouTube) a Hungarian (who lives outside of Hungary) blogger who usually covers transit, planning and leftist politics but has been talking a lot about what's going on in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. I've followed this channel since long before this started. I wouldn't have sought them out for Ukraine content, but they seem solid.
posted by interogative mood at 6:42 PM on April 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
re: the deportations -- really, ethnic cleansing, that's what we're trying to figure out if is happening; I think it's possible to be shocked and horrified at what it means if it's happening at the 400K+ scale reported, while also hoping that it's not at that scale, because it should not be concealable on that scale.
It's still an atrocity and war crime that requires a historically informed response at a tenth that, or a hundredth. But if nearly half a million people were moved in a week or two then I can't imagine how it isn't being seen by satellites. So hopefully it isn't at that scale; and NATO is reluctant to disagree publicly with Ukrainian numbers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:50 PM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's still an atrocity and war crime that requires a historically informed response at a tenth that, or a hundredth. But if nearly half a million people were moved in a week or two then I can't imagine how it isn't being seen by satellites. So hopefully it isn't at that scale; and NATO is reluctant to disagree publicly with Ukrainian numbers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:50 PM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
western europe needs to drill for natural gas and build nuclear plants period. this is idiotic. environmental concerns cant be a fig leaf for genocide. and really, theyre not even good at doing that, since theyre just buying gas from elsewhere. until battery tech develops, this is the reality.
posted by wibari at 9:52 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by wibari at 9:52 PM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Good news, everyone!
Carl Schreck on Twitter
Carl Schreck on Twitter
Per local news, families of fallen Russian soldiers in the Irkutsk region won't have to pay for trash-removal services.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:05 PM on April 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
nearly half a million people were moved in a week or two
From what read the 400 000 includes 90 000 deported from Donezk already in 18 February, and is a number reached since war started.
I first read that at uacrisis.org.
In this article uacrisis.org accuses the Russian Red Cross and UNHCR of aiding the kremlin in these deportations. If this accusation is indeed true, it would be horrifying. But so far i cannot find much about this, except denial by ICRC.
This BBC article contains a Maxar Image of a Camp for 5000 in Bezimenne, Donetzk Oblast.
posted by 15L06 at 10:20 PM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
From what read the 400 000 includes 90 000 deported from Donezk already in 18 February, and is a number reached since war started.
I first read that at uacrisis.org.
In this article uacrisis.org accuses the Russian Red Cross and UNHCR of aiding the kremlin in these deportations. If this accusation is indeed true, it would be horrifying. But so far i cannot find much about this, except denial by ICRC.
This BBC article contains a Maxar Image of a Camp for 5000 in Bezimenne, Donetzk Oblast.
posted by 15L06 at 10:20 PM on April 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
But if nearly half a million people were moved in a week or two then I can't imagine how it isn't being seen by satellites. So hopefully it isn't at that scale; and NATO is reluctant to disagree publicly with Ukrainian numbers
In the news reports I’ve seen, Ukrainian reports are generally in the single digit thousands.
The ~400k number is from Russia’s report of Ukrainians “evacuated” to Russia. Voluntarily, of course.
posted by The Shoodoonoof at 10:37 PM on April 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
Thanks, that's helpful.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:55 PM on April 7, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:55 PM on April 7, 2022
I really appreciate the ISW daily reports. I think this is the first conflict where even if I go to a newspaper site like the Guardian, there's just this massive scrolling Twitter-like feed of unverified, context-free events. I need just one thing per day that says "here's what we think happened to a reasonable level of certainty".
It's a slow war of attrition now. "Here's a picture of a blown-up tank [3 minutes ago]" isn't actually telling me anything useful. It's giving me an illusion of being informed and maybe a dopamine hit if I'm addicted enough to endless scrolls.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:28 AM on April 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
It's a slow war of attrition now. "Here's a picture of a blown-up tank [3 minutes ago]" isn't actually telling me anything useful. It's giving me an illusion of being informed and maybe a dopamine hit if I'm addicted enough to endless scrolls.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:28 AM on April 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
western europe needs to drill for natural gas and build nuclear plants period.
I know this is just an uninformed hot take but to the points: if there is no gas in the ground you can drill all you want and it will still be a waste of time. Not only does the fuel for nuclear plants come from Russia, nuclear plants also take on the scale of a decade to become operational and would be the absolute dumbest form of reacting to the current events.
posted by patrick54 at 2:07 AM on April 8, 2022 [19 favorites]
I know this is just an uninformed hot take but to the points: if there is no gas in the ground you can drill all you want and it will still be a waste of time. Not only does the fuel for nuclear plants come from Russia, nuclear plants also take on the scale of a decade to become operational and would be the absolute dumbest form of reacting to the current events.
posted by patrick54 at 2:07 AM on April 8, 2022 [19 favorites]
nuclear plants also take on the scale of a decade to become operational and would be the absolute dumbest form of reacting to the current events.
The UK government announced their reaction to the energy crisis yesterday (domestic prices went up 54% a week ago). Not improving old housing insulation, nor allowing onshore wind, nor boosting solar in any way - but they are going to build 4 new double-reactor nuclear plants, and they are absolutely the dumbest UK government in living memory, so thesis confirmed! Though I do think we get our uranium from Australia, not Russia.
We'll also stop importing our tiny amount of Russian oil by the end of the year, so I'm sure Putin will be quaking in his boots.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:30 AM on April 8, 2022 [22 favorites]
The UK government announced their reaction to the energy crisis yesterday (domestic prices went up 54% a week ago). Not improving old housing insulation, nor allowing onshore wind, nor boosting solar in any way - but they are going to build 4 new double-reactor nuclear plants, and they are absolutely the dumbest UK government in living memory, so thesis confirmed! Though I do think we get our uranium from Australia, not Russia.
We'll also stop importing our tiny amount of Russian oil by the end of the year, so I'm sure Putin will be quaking in his boots.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:30 AM on April 8, 2022 [22 favorites]
It seems to me that the increases in defence budgets across Europe, while understandable from a populist politics standpoint, are closing the barn doors after the horses have left? Surely Russia will not be an issue by the time new capabilities are operational? And if they are, we see that the only thing giving strategic safety, such at is is, nukes? Wouldn’t that money be better spent on a massive European crash programme for renewable energy in the medium term? And on offsetting the 1bn eur/day we send Putins way by massively increasing the support we give to Ukraine, in the short term?
posted by boogieboy at 3:01 AM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by boogieboy at 3:01 AM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
There’s a shitload of gas in the north of the Netherlands but extracting it caused a tiny little earthquake problem
posted by thedaniel at 3:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by thedaniel at 3:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Western Europe doesn't have much unexplored gas. The only place where production is below potential onshore is in the Slochteren field which is being decommissioned for domestic political reasons but which only produces L-gas anyway so is useless outside the Dutch and Western German markets. I don't see a lot of appetite to reopen that debate.
You could produce some shale gas in parts of the UK, Poland, and Germany (in the existing Elbe-Weser basin where Germany already produces some O&G) but not nearly enough in the best case to replace Russian gas. The reality is also that the "rural" areas where this potential exists are much more densely settled than the best US shale producing areas and it is difficult to see that the vast number of vehicle movements and drilling pads required would be acceptable in practice. This latter is what killed the UK projects (it's technically being re-examined but with a terms of reference that is guaranteed to come to the same conclusion as last time).
In addition, more could be done in the Norwegian and UKCS offshore areas which is quite likely to happen now I think, if this is just displacing RU gas from the Western European market it might be considered compatible with territorial emissions goals although obviously if that displaced Russian gas is used elsewhere then this doesn't really work. The reality there as well is that there will not be enough to substantially replace Russian gas except that the UK could improve its gas self sufficiency for the next decade or two (after which it will hopefully not matter).
It may or may not be meritorious to build more nuclear power plants - my grid modelling says yes, but other people's say no - but it doesn't do much for us until the 2030s.
The only thing that will reduce gas demand in the next 24 months is a campaign of upgrades to domestic boiler controls, further heat pump roll outs, and further building fabric upgrades although all of those things are practically much more complex than they are in theory and there are substantial issues with capacity ramping that would limit how quickly anything can be done.
The UK government announced their reaction to the energy crisis yesterday (domestic prices went up 54% a week ago). Not improving old housing insulation, nor allowing onshore wind, nor boosting solar in any way - but they are going to build 4 new double-reactor nuclear plants, and they are absolutely the dumbest UK government in living memory, so thesis confirmed! Though I do think we get our uranium from Australia, not Russia.
The planning process changes for offshore wind are pretty significant and will probably pull forward quite a lot of offshore that would have been delivered in the early 2030s to the mid/late 2020s, the changes to solar permitting will also make it easier to get built. Yes, the big disappointments are around not reversing the onshore wind planning changes from previous governments and especially not at least starting on a more serious domestic thermal fabric programme (even if, in practice this would take years to ramp up).
The issue with the latter is essentially government paralysis - having spent quite a lot of time advising and lobbying parts of HMG on this topic they genuinely don't know how to do it. The last programme they had was extremely poorly run and upgrading thermal fabric performance in UK housing stock (not just Europe's but actually the world's oldest) is a genuinely tough technical problem on a programme level. The word from within BEIS is that they are designing a new programme intended to ramp up over the course of the 2020s and are intent on "doing it right" this time to avoid the loss of confidence from previous cock-ups. It doesn't help that there is a lot of evidence out there that domestic thermal efficiency upgrade programmes have historically underperformed their modelled reductions in virtually every country which makes it a lot harder to make the case for them stack up.
posted by atrazine at 3:40 AM on April 8, 2022 [25 favorites]
You could produce some shale gas in parts of the UK, Poland, and Germany (in the existing Elbe-Weser basin where Germany already produces some O&G) but not nearly enough in the best case to replace Russian gas. The reality is also that the "rural" areas where this potential exists are much more densely settled than the best US shale producing areas and it is difficult to see that the vast number of vehicle movements and drilling pads required would be acceptable in practice. This latter is what killed the UK projects (it's technically being re-examined but with a terms of reference that is guaranteed to come to the same conclusion as last time).
In addition, more could be done in the Norwegian and UKCS offshore areas which is quite likely to happen now I think, if this is just displacing RU gas from the Western European market it might be considered compatible with territorial emissions goals although obviously if that displaced Russian gas is used elsewhere then this doesn't really work. The reality there as well is that there will not be enough to substantially replace Russian gas except that the UK could improve its gas self sufficiency for the next decade or two (after which it will hopefully not matter).
It may or may not be meritorious to build more nuclear power plants - my grid modelling says yes, but other people's say no - but it doesn't do much for us until the 2030s.
The only thing that will reduce gas demand in the next 24 months is a campaign of upgrades to domestic boiler controls, further heat pump roll outs, and further building fabric upgrades although all of those things are practically much more complex than they are in theory and there are substantial issues with capacity ramping that would limit how quickly anything can be done.
The UK government announced their reaction to the energy crisis yesterday (domestic prices went up 54% a week ago). Not improving old housing insulation, nor allowing onshore wind, nor boosting solar in any way - but they are going to build 4 new double-reactor nuclear plants, and they are absolutely the dumbest UK government in living memory, so thesis confirmed! Though I do think we get our uranium from Australia, not Russia.
The planning process changes for offshore wind are pretty significant and will probably pull forward quite a lot of offshore that would have been delivered in the early 2030s to the mid/late 2020s, the changes to solar permitting will also make it easier to get built. Yes, the big disappointments are around not reversing the onshore wind planning changes from previous governments and especially not at least starting on a more serious domestic thermal fabric programme (even if, in practice this would take years to ramp up).
The issue with the latter is essentially government paralysis - having spent quite a lot of time advising and lobbying parts of HMG on this topic they genuinely don't know how to do it. The last programme they had was extremely poorly run and upgrading thermal fabric performance in UK housing stock (not just Europe's but actually the world's oldest) is a genuinely tough technical problem on a programme level. The word from within BEIS is that they are designing a new programme intended to ramp up over the course of the 2020s and are intent on "doing it right" this time to avoid the loss of confidence from previous cock-ups. It doesn't help that there is a lot of evidence out there that domestic thermal efficiency upgrade programmes have historically underperformed their modelled reductions in virtually every country which makes it a lot harder to make the case for them stack up.
posted by atrazine at 3:40 AM on April 8, 2022 [25 favorites]
This thread is really losing its focus on Ukraine, I think. Maybe another thread for European energy musings?
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Boris Buden - The West at War: On the Self-Enclosure of the Liberal Mind
For anyone who doesn’t want to waste their eyeballs, this is pretty heavily tankie, arguing that the problem with Putin is basically that he’s not Soviet enough, and that nothing was bad until the West came.
posted by corb at 4:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
For anyone who doesn’t want to waste their eyeballs, this is pretty heavily tankie, arguing that the problem with Putin is basically that he’s not Soviet enough, and that nothing was bad until the West came.
posted by corb at 4:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
Today Zelenskyy addressed the Finnish parliament today. You can watch the video, with English interpretation, on the website of the Finnish state broadcaster YLE.
Watching it, I was struck by how disarming he is as a public speaker. He kept things fairly simple and direct, starting by discussing the rocket attack on the train station in Kramatorsk today. He then called for weapons and other aid, thanked Finland for having been proactive in sending supplies, both military and otherwise, to Ukraine from the very start. He referenced the Winter War both directly, and obliquely when he called for a sanctions cocktail against Russia which would be as famous as the Molotov cocktail. To explain the latter, the name originated in the Winter War. The Soviet foreign minister, Molotov, claimed that the Soviet Union was delivering humanitarian aid to Finland, and therefore Russian bombs were referred to as Molotov breadbaskets. The Finnish army then repaid those with Molotov cocktails.
The most affecting part, at least for me, was when he started to talk about the rebuilding of Ukraine. He referenced the famously good Finnish primary education system, and said that he wanted Finnish educators to come to Ukraine after the war had ended to help rebuild the school system.
I had expected the Winter War stuff, and I had steeled myself for descriptions of atrocities, but when he started mentioning the rebuilding after the war, and all the kids that would need to restart schooling, I found myself having to explain to the otherwise empty room I was in that the air was unexpectedly dusty.
posted by Kattullus at 5:03 AM on April 8, 2022 [66 favorites]
Watching it, I was struck by how disarming he is as a public speaker. He kept things fairly simple and direct, starting by discussing the rocket attack on the train station in Kramatorsk today. He then called for weapons and other aid, thanked Finland for having been proactive in sending supplies, both military and otherwise, to Ukraine from the very start. He referenced the Winter War both directly, and obliquely when he called for a sanctions cocktail against Russia which would be as famous as the Molotov cocktail. To explain the latter, the name originated in the Winter War. The Soviet foreign minister, Molotov, claimed that the Soviet Union was delivering humanitarian aid to Finland, and therefore Russian bombs were referred to as Molotov breadbaskets. The Finnish army then repaid those with Molotov cocktails.
The most affecting part, at least for me, was when he started to talk about the rebuilding of Ukraine. He referenced the famously good Finnish primary education system, and said that he wanted Finnish educators to come to Ukraine after the war had ended to help rebuild the school system.
I had expected the Winter War stuff, and I had steeled myself for descriptions of atrocities, but when he started mentioning the rebuilding after the war, and all the kids that would need to restart schooling, I found myself having to explain to the otherwise empty room I was in that the air was unexpectedly dusty.
posted by Kattullus at 5:03 AM on April 8, 2022 [66 favorites]
For anyone who doesn’t want to waste their eyeballs, this is pretty heavily tankie, arguing that the problem with Putin is basically that he’s not Soviet enough, and that nothing was bad until the West came.
I don't think it was quite tankie but I did roll my eyes at the claim that Ukrainians and Russians have lost their taste for revolution because of the hegemony of Western liberalism and its boringly gradualist rejection of violent revolution. They lost their taste for revolution when their great-grandparents had to eat their own dead neighbours and worse to survive. They look at how people live in the places in Germany, in Sweden, and in England where they and they families have been with their slightly different spins on yes, a very similar way living, and they say, "that looks great, please sign me up for this".
The fact that some people consider that disappointingly stultifying and a result of a mental closure which is no longer interested in revolution is just too bad for them.
The hard truth is that many people who were believers in revolutionary ideas in the 1920s and 1930s were profoundly disgusted by the putting into practice of those ideas. One of the most popular books of that time was Socialism or Barbarism which argued, in the shadow of the Great War, that the only way to prevent another imperial world war was global socialism. It convinced many people who were later disillusioned by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, to put it mildly, and the USSR was hardly anti-imperialist.
The truth is that the best outcomes for the working classes were achieved by countries where non-revolutionary socialist parties had power in Western Europe and by the US New Deal which wasn't strictly socialist but certainly came out of that milieu.
posted by atrazine at 5:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [32 favorites]
I don't think it was quite tankie but I did roll my eyes at the claim that Ukrainians and Russians have lost their taste for revolution because of the hegemony of Western liberalism and its boringly gradualist rejection of violent revolution. They lost their taste for revolution when their great-grandparents had to eat their own dead neighbours and worse to survive. They look at how people live in the places in Germany, in Sweden, and in England where they and they families have been with their slightly different spins on yes, a very similar way living, and they say, "that looks great, please sign me up for this".
The fact that some people consider that disappointingly stultifying and a result of a mental closure which is no longer interested in revolution is just too bad for them.
The hard truth is that many people who were believers in revolutionary ideas in the 1920s and 1930s were profoundly disgusted by the putting into practice of those ideas. One of the most popular books of that time was Socialism or Barbarism which argued, in the shadow of the Great War, that the only way to prevent another imperial world war was global socialism. It convinced many people who were later disillusioned by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, to put it mildly, and the USSR was hardly anti-imperialist.
The truth is that the best outcomes for the working classes were achieved by countries where non-revolutionary socialist parties had power in Western Europe and by the US New Deal which wasn't strictly socialist but certainly came out of that milieu.
posted by atrazine at 5:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [32 favorites]
Timothy Snyder just posted a column titled "Russia's Genocide Handbook" about a new Russian document. Without apparent shame, the document explains just exactly what they mean by the word Nazi: a Ukrainian.
If accurate, it's completely chilling. As he writes:
posted by wenestvedt at 5:39 AM on April 8, 2022 [25 favorites]
If accurate, it's completely chilling. As he writes:
The genocide handbook explains that the Russian policy of "denazification" is not directed against Nazis in the sense that the word is normally used. The handbook grants, with no hesitation, that there is no evidence that Nazism, as generally understood, is important in Ukraine. It operates within the special Russian definition of "Nazi": a Nazi is a Ukrainian who refuses to admit being a Russian.There's an English translation of the long, hateful thing at https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:39 AM on April 8, 2022 [25 favorites]
Building new nuclear plants right now won't help with the crisis, though I think that if there are existing nuclear plants that have been mothballed because of Fukushima (as there are in Germany and Sweden), they should be restarted. I've seen it claimed that, even if one factored in nuclear accidents happening at the same rate as in the past, nuclear would still be less harmful than burning enough coal/gas to provide our energy needs.
Having said that, the UK's nuclear buildout is somewhat concerning, especially given the UK's culture of gentlemen's-agreement light-touch self-regulation. It is quite likely that in a Tory (or New New Labour) Brexitland, the private operators will be trusted to regulate their own safety, at the same time as maximising their returns to shareholders. It would be comforting to believe that no corners will be cut in doing this because humankind is inherently good, but history tells us otherwise.
posted by acb at 6:22 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Having said that, the UK's nuclear buildout is somewhat concerning, especially given the UK's culture of gentlemen's-agreement light-touch self-regulation. It is quite likely that in a Tory (or New New Labour) Brexitland, the private operators will be trusted to regulate their own safety, at the same time as maximising their returns to shareholders. It would be comforting to believe that no corners will be cut in doing this because humankind is inherently good, but history tells us otherwise.
posted by acb at 6:22 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Slovakia's S-300 has arrived in Ukraine.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:28 AM on April 8, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:28 AM on April 8, 2022 [13 favorites]
Images and video of another massacre in Kramatorsk are coming in. CW: executed civilians.
This is very graphic, you may prefer to wait for reporting rather than directly viewing this post.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:46 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
This is very graphic, you may prefer to wait for reporting rather than directly viewing this post.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:46 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
A woman who took my documents to register, asked me, 'Why the hell did you come to the border without international passport?' Dmytrii, who is now safely in Estonia, replied, "And why the hell did you forcibly take me to this land from my Ukraine?" From Russia or Die, a CNN report published yesterday about the forced deportations to Russia.
posted by Bella Donna at 7:53 AM on April 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 7:53 AM on April 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
Here's the Washington Post's initial report on the Kramatorsk Station attack. This says it was a missile attack, despite the way the scene looks.
Mirror.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:53 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Mirror.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:53 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
WashPo: Expulsion of Russian ‘diplomats’ may strangle Moscow’s spying (archive version)
posted by gwint at 7:58 AM on April 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
Nearly two dozen European countries have expelled hundreds of Russian government personnel from embassies and consulates since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and more recently was accused of war crimes against civilians. A significant number are probably spies posing as diplomats, according to U.S. and European officials.I imagine the leader of Russia, an ex-KGB agent, didn't have "destroy Russia's European spy network for a generation" on his war bingo card.
...
A senior European diplomat called it a “major disruption” to Russia’s intelligence work in Europe, potentially a permanent one. The Kremlin will have difficulty replenishing its intelligence ranks, the diplomat said.
“Reassigning and instruction will take time and may not be possible for some time, if ever,” said the diplomat who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “Retraining, redeploying, all of this is disrupted.”
posted by gwint at 7:58 AM on April 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
A missile hit a train station where thousands of people had flocked to flee in eastern Ukraine, killing 50 people Friday [AP] [...] Photos from the scene showed bodies covered with tarps on the ground and the remnants of a rocket with the words "For the children" painted on it in Russian.
[edit: i initially said no casualties visible in above link but that was just picture 1 of 20, apologies]
posted by glonous keming at 7:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
[edit: i initially said no casualties visible in above link but that was just picture 1 of 20, apologies]
posted by glonous keming at 7:59 AM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Having said that, the UK's nuclear buildout is somewhat concerning, especially given the UK's culture of gentlemen's-agreement light-touch self-regulation. It is quite likely that in a Tory (or New New Labour) Brexitland, the private operators will be trusted to regulate their own safety, at the same time as maximising their returns to shareholders. It would be comforting to believe that no corners will be cut in doing this because humankind is inherently good, but history tells us otherwise.
I don't want to derail this thread into a discussion of UK energy policy but this is very, very far from being true of UK nuclear regulation.
posted by atrazine at 8:01 AM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't want to derail this thread into a discussion of UK energy policy but this is very, very far from being true of UK nuclear regulation.
posted by atrazine at 8:01 AM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Right, so let us go back to Ukraine again. Thanks!
posted by Bella Donna at 8:05 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 8:05 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
110,000 Ukrainians have joined the ranks of defense, more than 100 already have state awards.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:13 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
"The day before the invasion, we had only 6,000 professional soldiers and reservists. However, on February 24, our hotline was broken, and there were queues all over Ukraine to get to the Troy. In total, more than 110,000 citizens joined the TPO. These are people of different professions, ages, faiths. I personally saw these kilometers of queues," said the brigadier general.This is the TPO (think National Guard) not the Ukrainian Ground Forces. They are in addition to the ZSU's 200K+ people on the ground in Ukraine.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:13 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Vox: How Ukrainians are saving art during the war [~9 min.]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
As part of a thread on the Kramatorsk attack, @ max seddon: Just like with MH17, pro-Kremlin bloggers posted footage of what they said was a Russian attack on Kramatorsk – then deleted them once the civilian toll was clear https://t.co/uHV7q4uKa8
----
Frederik Pleitgen (Senior CNN International Correspondent): The Ukrainian interior minister took us to Chernobyl yesterday. The first time since the Russians occupied the place. We found evidence of mistreatment of Ukrainians and that the Russians got radiated. 🧵1/8 https://t.co/RNoTU3S6dL
Also:
Medusa: ‘You see this line? It’s all Russians.’ In a dispatch from Almaty, Meduza meets Russian citizens flocking to Kazakhstan following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine
A couple of academics:
- Julian Ku writing in FP: China Has Ditched Its Own Principles to Back Russia
: There are at least two possible explanations for China’s apparent about-face on its prior opposition to the “use of force in international relations” with respect to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both are troubling for U.S. policymakers concerned about China’s potential threat to United States and allied interests.
First, the most obvious explanation for Beijing’s silence on the use of force against Ukraine is that China’s need to support its strategic partnership with Russia is more important than any commitment it has to an abstract principle of international law. Its willingness to accept blatant large-scale use of military force against a sovereign state goes far beyond its tacit acceptance of Russia’s actions in Georgia and Crimea. This is hardly shocking, nor are inconsistent views on the legality of the use of force unique to China.
But even the United States, which has wrestled most publicly with the legality of its own use of force, has typically offered justifications for the international legality of its actions under either a capacious view of self-defense or the need to prevent a humanitarian atrocity. China has simply refused to offer any legal explanation at all for its non-position on Russia’s obviously illegal use of force. The much-scrutinized joint statement between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping actually condemned “[s]ome actors” that “continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing international issues and resort to force” (emphasis added). Thus, not only is Russia resorting to “force” in a very unilateral way, but China has decided that it will not condemn Russia for undermining a principle both countries endorsed within the past two months.
There is a second, and more troubling, explanation for China’s silence on the legality of the use of force. China’s adherence to such a legal principle may have been more attractive when it was a negligible military power outside its own borders. But while China is not yet the equal of the United States in military terms, it has growing geopolitical ambitions within Asia as well as around the world. Not only is China embroiled in potentially violent border disputes with almost all of its geographic neighbors, including Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, but it has established or is considering military presences in the Middle East (Djibouti) and in regions as far-flung as the Atlantic and the South Pacific.
A rising global military power might take a less restrictive view of the U.N. Charter’s limitations on the use of force, as, indeed, the United States has appeared to do in its recent history when it used force in the former Yugoslavia and Syria without any widely accepted international law justification. But a China that is not even notionally committed to the U.N. Charter’s limitations on the use of force is much more of a threat than one that is simply giving its strategic partner Russia a hypocritical pass.
Either way, the United States and its allies should demand China justify its silence on the legality of Russia’s use of force against Ukraine. While the United States may, in the eyes of many international lawyers, have violated this same rule many times before, it is still important to force China to spell out whether it is likely to disregard this prohibition in the future with respect to its own interests. Countries otherwise sympathetic to China’s professed commitment to the U.N. Charter (such as in Europe, Africa, or Southeast Asia) will be put on notice of Beijing’s hypocrisy or, worse, its potential abandonment of this principle.
China is either so committed to Russia that it will abandon a core principle of the U.N. Charter it once valorized—or it sees itself as a nation that does not need to be bound by such rules. Neither option is attractive, and both require us to rethink the nature of China’s position in the global order and the viability of such principles as the prohibition on the use of force in that order.
- Susan Smith-Peter: What do Scholars of Russia owe Ukraine? Let me share my own experience. I have been working on the issue of regional identities in the Russian Empire for more than 20 years. In the course of that research, I read journals published in the circles of the Imperial University in Kharkiv in the 1810s and 1820s, the same Kharkiv that Russian forces have (temporarily) reduced to rubble. I found that the university’s Russian-language journal from the 1810s rejected Ukrainian culture and language on Enlightenment grounds, as being unpolished and not of world-historical meaning. This, of course, is still the position of a great many Russian intellectuals and, unfortunately for everyone, Putin. I am not drawing a straight line from this journal to present-day views, but merely stating that the views expressed there were part of a larger approach to Ukraine within the Russian Empire that continued to develop over time. This approach denied meaning to Ukraine by excluding it from Europe on cultural grounds.
Journals from Kharkiv from the 1820s, however, embraced Romanticism and celebrated Ukrainian language and culture as the authentic spirit of the Ukrainian people, as expressed by the Ukrainian peasantry. This view was in line with other national movements in Europe. Scholars of Ukraine have discussed this phenomenon as part of Ukraine’s history, but my contribution was to the comparison of the development of Ukrainian identity to that of regional identities in Russia. Many nobles supported Ukrainian identity and regional difference was celebrated. In other parts of the Russian Empire, nobles identified with state power and rejected regional identity, leaving it to the clergy, merchants, and townspeople to develop it, but these groups lacked the power to create and impose cultural canons. Thus, whereas in Ukraine, key intellectuals and nobles were rejecting the subject position of the Russian state from the beginning, the same rarely happened in Russia. Where it did, those writers did not enter “the canon” and at best remained celebrated only in their province or town.
I tried to publish these conclusions in an article about regional identity in the Russian Empire, but the reviewers said that the Ukraine material didn’t fit, so I set it aside. Then, several years later, a Russian colleague asked if I had something to publish in his journal. I submitted the article. When I read the proofs, I saw that someone had added a footnote that derided the expression of Ukrainian identity as anti-historical and false. If I had not been a careful reader of the proofs, my article would have been conscripted into an attack on the origins of Ukrainian identity. As it was, it was somewhat of a dead letter — from the perspective of the Anglophone academy, anyway — because it was published in Russian.
From my abortive attempt to write about the origins of modern Ukrainian identity, I learned a lesson: We don’t talk about Ukraine. And, unfortunately, I didn’t write about it again.
How can scholars of Russia make amends? We cannot all become scholars of Ukraine, but we must think about how we can write about Russia without discounting Ukraine. A good example of what scholars could do is Jane Burbank’s recent New York Times guest essay on Eurasianism, where Burbank draws on her work on empire to describe how Putin’s actions are driven by illiberal and violently imperialistic ideas. More of us can tap our expertise on the Russian state in order to uncover the origins of Russia’s horrific war crimes against the Ukrainian people.
- Andrei Kolesnikov: How Silent Assent Made Bucha Possible. Per his tweet: Passive conformity is no less terrible than active and aggressive conformity. The nation follows Putin like the blind leading the blind. My take on Gleichschaltung, Russian style.https://t.co/3fKiPmESX7
Finally something light-hearted:
Natalia Gumenyuk: A new Ukrainian meme. If the shelf in Borodyanka is holding up, every Ukrainian should be able.
(Picture by Oleksandr Grekhov). https://t.co/0DQjHE7HEa
posted by cendawanita at 8:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [20 favorites]
----
Frederik Pleitgen (Senior CNN International Correspondent): The Ukrainian interior minister took us to Chernobyl yesterday. The first time since the Russians occupied the place. We found evidence of mistreatment of Ukrainians and that the Russians got radiated. 🧵1/8 https://t.co/RNoTU3S6dL
Also:
Medusa: ‘You see this line? It’s all Russians.’ In a dispatch from Almaty, Meduza meets Russian citizens flocking to Kazakhstan following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine
A couple of academics:
- Julian Ku writing in FP: China Has Ditched Its Own Principles to Back Russia
: There are at least two possible explanations for China’s apparent about-face on its prior opposition to the “use of force in international relations” with respect to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both are troubling for U.S. policymakers concerned about China’s potential threat to United States and allied interests.
First, the most obvious explanation for Beijing’s silence on the use of force against Ukraine is that China’s need to support its strategic partnership with Russia is more important than any commitment it has to an abstract principle of international law. Its willingness to accept blatant large-scale use of military force against a sovereign state goes far beyond its tacit acceptance of Russia’s actions in Georgia and Crimea. This is hardly shocking, nor are inconsistent views on the legality of the use of force unique to China.
But even the United States, which has wrestled most publicly with the legality of its own use of force, has typically offered justifications for the international legality of its actions under either a capacious view of self-defense or the need to prevent a humanitarian atrocity. China has simply refused to offer any legal explanation at all for its non-position on Russia’s obviously illegal use of force. The much-scrutinized joint statement between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping actually condemned “[s]ome actors” that “continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing international issues and resort to force” (emphasis added). Thus, not only is Russia resorting to “force” in a very unilateral way, but China has decided that it will not condemn Russia for undermining a principle both countries endorsed within the past two months.
There is a second, and more troubling, explanation for China’s silence on the legality of the use of force. China’s adherence to such a legal principle may have been more attractive when it was a negligible military power outside its own borders. But while China is not yet the equal of the United States in military terms, it has growing geopolitical ambitions within Asia as well as around the world. Not only is China embroiled in potentially violent border disputes with almost all of its geographic neighbors, including Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, but it has established or is considering military presences in the Middle East (Djibouti) and in regions as far-flung as the Atlantic and the South Pacific.
A rising global military power might take a less restrictive view of the U.N. Charter’s limitations on the use of force, as, indeed, the United States has appeared to do in its recent history when it used force in the former Yugoslavia and Syria without any widely accepted international law justification. But a China that is not even notionally committed to the U.N. Charter’s limitations on the use of force is much more of a threat than one that is simply giving its strategic partner Russia a hypocritical pass.
Either way, the United States and its allies should demand China justify its silence on the legality of Russia’s use of force against Ukraine. While the United States may, in the eyes of many international lawyers, have violated this same rule many times before, it is still important to force China to spell out whether it is likely to disregard this prohibition in the future with respect to its own interests. Countries otherwise sympathetic to China’s professed commitment to the U.N. Charter (such as in Europe, Africa, or Southeast Asia) will be put on notice of Beijing’s hypocrisy or, worse, its potential abandonment of this principle.
China is either so committed to Russia that it will abandon a core principle of the U.N. Charter it once valorized—or it sees itself as a nation that does not need to be bound by such rules. Neither option is attractive, and both require us to rethink the nature of China’s position in the global order and the viability of such principles as the prohibition on the use of force in that order.
- Susan Smith-Peter: What do Scholars of Russia owe Ukraine? Let me share my own experience. I have been working on the issue of regional identities in the Russian Empire for more than 20 years. In the course of that research, I read journals published in the circles of the Imperial University in Kharkiv in the 1810s and 1820s, the same Kharkiv that Russian forces have (temporarily) reduced to rubble. I found that the university’s Russian-language journal from the 1810s rejected Ukrainian culture and language on Enlightenment grounds, as being unpolished and not of world-historical meaning. This, of course, is still the position of a great many Russian intellectuals and, unfortunately for everyone, Putin. I am not drawing a straight line from this journal to present-day views, but merely stating that the views expressed there were part of a larger approach to Ukraine within the Russian Empire that continued to develop over time. This approach denied meaning to Ukraine by excluding it from Europe on cultural grounds.
Journals from Kharkiv from the 1820s, however, embraced Romanticism and celebrated Ukrainian language and culture as the authentic spirit of the Ukrainian people, as expressed by the Ukrainian peasantry. This view was in line with other national movements in Europe. Scholars of Ukraine have discussed this phenomenon as part of Ukraine’s history, but my contribution was to the comparison of the development of Ukrainian identity to that of regional identities in Russia. Many nobles supported Ukrainian identity and regional difference was celebrated. In other parts of the Russian Empire, nobles identified with state power and rejected regional identity, leaving it to the clergy, merchants, and townspeople to develop it, but these groups lacked the power to create and impose cultural canons. Thus, whereas in Ukraine, key intellectuals and nobles were rejecting the subject position of the Russian state from the beginning, the same rarely happened in Russia. Where it did, those writers did not enter “the canon” and at best remained celebrated only in their province or town.
I tried to publish these conclusions in an article about regional identity in the Russian Empire, but the reviewers said that the Ukraine material didn’t fit, so I set it aside. Then, several years later, a Russian colleague asked if I had something to publish in his journal. I submitted the article. When I read the proofs, I saw that someone had added a footnote that derided the expression of Ukrainian identity as anti-historical and false. If I had not been a careful reader of the proofs, my article would have been conscripted into an attack on the origins of Ukrainian identity. As it was, it was somewhat of a dead letter — from the perspective of the Anglophone academy, anyway — because it was published in Russian.
From my abortive attempt to write about the origins of modern Ukrainian identity, I learned a lesson: We don’t talk about Ukraine. And, unfortunately, I didn’t write about it again.
How can scholars of Russia make amends? We cannot all become scholars of Ukraine, but we must think about how we can write about Russia without discounting Ukraine. A good example of what scholars could do is Jane Burbank’s recent New York Times guest essay on Eurasianism, where Burbank draws on her work on empire to describe how Putin’s actions are driven by illiberal and violently imperialistic ideas. More of us can tap our expertise on the Russian state in order to uncover the origins of Russia’s horrific war crimes against the Ukrainian people.
- Andrei Kolesnikov: How Silent Assent Made Bucha Possible. Per his tweet: Passive conformity is no less terrible than active and aggressive conformity. The nation follows Putin like the blind leading the blind. My take on Gleichschaltung, Russian style.https://t.co/3fKiPmESX7
Finally something light-hearted:
Natalia Gumenyuk: A new Ukrainian meme. If the shelf in Borodyanka is holding up, every Ukrainian should be able.
(Picture by Oleksandr Grekhov). https://t.co/0DQjHE7HEa
posted by cendawanita at 8:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [20 favorites]
If Al Qaeda did this to a train station or airport full of civilians in Europe or the United States what would our response be?
posted by interogative mood at 8:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:27 AM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
interogative mood: what would our response be?
Who are 'we' in this question?
posted by Too-Ticky at 8:31 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
Who are 'we' in this question?
posted by Too-Ticky at 8:31 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
It's not quite a hypothetical, 9-11 was in part an attack on the air travel system. The immediate result was the only invocation of Article 5 to date, and the War in Afghanistan (plus twenty years of other fighting around the world).
But if this war was being prosecuted by a stateless proxy force, things would have been different from day one.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:42 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
But if this war was being prosecuted by a stateless proxy force, things would have been different from day one.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:42 AM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Timothy Snyder just posted a column titled "Russia's Genocide Handbook" about a new Russian document. Without apparent shame, the document explains just exactly what they mean by the word Nazi: a Ukrainian.
Well that makes the whole Russian 'Z' thing make sense. If Russian's are Zs, than Ukrainians are clearly Not Zs.
posted by mazola at 8:58 AM on April 8, 2022 [20 favorites]
Well that makes the whole Russian 'Z' thing make sense. If Russian's are Zs, than Ukrainians are clearly Not Zs.
posted by mazola at 8:58 AM on April 8, 2022 [20 favorites]
Part of me has been waiting for a "Y" ('why') counter-sign to arise. Seems like the kind of thing that could be deniably stylized.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:16 AM on April 8, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:16 AM on April 8, 2022
If Al Qaeda did this to a train station or airport full of civilians in Europe or the United States what would our response be?
A court trial.
posted by Kiwi at 9:22 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
A court trial.
posted by Kiwi at 9:22 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
Things to note:
1. Kramatorsk is in the middle of Europe's last unexploited natural gas field, and there are enough deposits underneath to undermine Putin's leverage. It's also fronted on three sides by areas of Russian control in Crimea and Donbas.
2. For the attack on Kyiv, according to captured officers, Russia chose to do a surprise attack so that columns of civilian evacuations would not clog up the roads and slow their advance.
Putting two and two together:
Russia wants the residents of Kramatorsk to shelter in place so that their movements will not clog up the roads when they attack. An attack is imminent.
posted by ocschwar at 9:41 AM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
1. Kramatorsk is in the middle of Europe's last unexploited natural gas field, and there are enough deposits underneath to undermine Putin's leverage. It's also fronted on three sides by areas of Russian control in Crimea and Donbas.
2. For the attack on Kyiv, according to captured officers, Russia chose to do a surprise attack so that columns of civilian evacuations would not clog up the roads and slow their advance.
Putting two and two together:
Russia wants the residents of Kramatorsk to shelter in place so that their movements will not clog up the roads when they attack. An attack is imminent.
posted by ocschwar at 9:41 AM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
OTOH, does Russia have the troops in place to attack imminently with any probability of success?
posted by acb at 9:57 AM on April 8, 2022
posted by acb at 9:57 AM on April 8, 2022
I don't want to feed the debate on energy in here but this really is amazing news, and an indication that at least the EU member states found a common denominator for action and does send a clear message:
BRUSSELS, April 8 (Reuters) - The European Union has launched a platform for European Union countries to jointly buy gas and liquefied natural gas as they seek to cut reliance on Russian fuels and build a buffer against supply shocks.
No, it wont be a quick solution. Yes, it is Not compulsory. But this is because the famous quote "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?, attributed to Kissinger, hits the nail on the head. The European Union and European non-EU-member states, are each sovereign nations, connected by a very fragile web and common decisions are very hard work indeed and always full of sad compromises.
posted by 15L06 at 10:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
BRUSSELS, April 8 (Reuters) - The European Union has launched a platform for European Union countries to jointly buy gas and liquefied natural gas as they seek to cut reliance on Russian fuels and build a buffer against supply shocks.
No, it wont be a quick solution. Yes, it is Not compulsory. But this is because the famous quote "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?, attributed to Kissinger, hits the nail on the head. The European Union and European non-EU-member states, are each sovereign nations, connected by a very fragile web and common decisions are very hard work indeed and always full of sad compromises.
posted by 15L06 at 10:17 AM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
Debate and discussion about energy should go in it's own thread. News and expert analysis about energy (or anything else) that is directly relevant to the war in Ukraine definitely belongs here. That's a good signal and not much noise. #notamod
posted by VTX at 10:46 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by VTX at 10:46 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Armed services committee member Mikie Sherrill mentioned in passing during an MSNBC interview that Ukrainian children are being named Javelin and Stinger. First of all - badass. Those are cool names. It also inextricably links their very identity to the fight against Russia.
I can't think of anything more illustrative of the generational repercussions of Russia's inhumanity than naming the babies after the weapons. Their actions have bred enmity for a very long time to come.
posted by adept256 at 10:51 AM on April 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
I can't think of anything more illustrative of the generational repercussions of Russia's inhumanity than naming the babies after the weapons. Their actions have bred enmity for a very long time to come.
posted by adept256 at 10:51 AM on April 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
Carl Bildt has tweeted that Russia has shut down the last independent think tank in the nation after Carnegie Russia published a critique of Russia and the war.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:23 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 11:23 AM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
According to an analyst, Russia has just deregistered 15 foreign NGOs, including @hrw, @CarnegieRussia and @amnestyintl. So Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International are among the organisations kicked out of the country, as I understand it.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:39 AM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 11:39 AM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ukrainian children are being named Javelin and Stinger. First of all - badass.I don't mean to imply that it's not different when your country is actually being physically invaded, but...
I once knew a guy, ex-military and always wanted to make sure that you knew that fact. One day, I learned that he had named his child "Saber". From that day on, every time I saw him, there was always a voice in the back of my head saying this jackass named his child "Saber".
posted by Flunkie at 11:57 AM on April 8, 2022 [13 favorites]
this jackass named his child "Saber".
But just think of the opportunities for puns when you give the kid a rattle as a toy!
posted by pwnguin at 12:48 PM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
But just think of the opportunities for puns when you give the kid a rattle as a toy!
posted by pwnguin at 12:48 PM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
FT: Nato states agree to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:14 PM on April 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, told reporters after the meeting that member states had backed giving more weapons.
“There was support for countries to supply new and heavier equipment to Ukraine, so that they can respond to these new threats from Russia,” she said. “And we agreed to help Ukrainian forces move from their Soviet-era equipment to Nato standard equipment, on a bilateral basis.”
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said Washington was looking at sending “new systems” to Ukraine.
I'm more willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Ukrainian parents naming their children literally in the middle of a war than I am to a US veteran who's a jackass about his having served.
posted by VTX at 1:15 PM on April 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by VTX at 1:15 PM on April 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
Armed services committee member Mikie Sherrill mentioned in passing during an MSNBC interview that Ukrainian children are being named Javelin and Stinger.
Here's a touching example of that sentiment, Oleksandra "Sasha" Ustinova is a member of the Ukrainian parliament who is stuck in the US because the invasion interrupted her trip home, and now she's too pregnant to safely fly, so she's making the most of her time by lobbying US lawmakers (no paywall) for more support:
Here's a touching example of that sentiment, Oleksandra "Sasha" Ustinova is a member of the Ukrainian parliament who is stuck in the US because the invasion interrupted her trip home, and now she's too pregnant to safely fly, so she's making the most of her time by lobbying US lawmakers (no paywall) for more support:
Her husband works for a Texas company, and she was visiting him in Austin when the war began.posted by peeedro at 1:56 PM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
She’s now too close to her delivery date to fly back home and into a war zone, so they are preparing to deliver their child here, even if they’re not ready.
“We don’t have a name yet,” she said. “I warned my husband that if we can’t agree on a name, I’m going to name her Javelin.”
She will keep meeting with U.S. officials until she can’t.
Edward N. Luttwak, author of Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace tweeted today:
Ukraine's forces have increased numerically (recruits +volunteers vastly outnumber casualties) Therefore their need for weapons is very urgent. With their forces much reduced since 1991,NATO countries have depots full weapons, but are v slow to send them. Public pressure needed.
(Wiki bio)
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:07 PM on April 8, 2022
Ukraine's forces have increased numerically (recruits +volunteers vastly outnumber casualties) Therefore their need for weapons is very urgent. With their forces much reduced since 1991,NATO countries have depots full weapons, but are v slow to send them. Public pressure needed.
(Wiki bio)
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:07 PM on April 8, 2022
Edward Luttwak is a treasure, his 'coup d'État handbook' is a great resource. I'm surprised he didn't mention this is the time to set up Ukraine with the heavy stuff in order to mount a sustained counter-attack.
posted by clavdivs at 2:41 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 2:41 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
1420: Russians watch videos of Bucha - filmed on the streets of Moscow (warning - they do show parts of the actual videos)
Also on the streets of Moscow: Are you brainwashed?
These videos are really amazing - even if you think you know what the answers will be. It's amazing to me that this guy is on the streets of Moscow talking to people about this, even if might be like asking people on the streets of NYC in 2003 how they felt about the Iraq War, when most were against it, but the rest of the country was for it.
posted by maggiemaggie at 3:16 PM on April 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also on the streets of Moscow: Are you brainwashed?
These videos are really amazing - even if you think you know what the answers will be. It's amazing to me that this guy is on the streets of Moscow talking to people about this, even if might be like asking people on the streets of NYC in 2003 how they felt about the Iraq War, when most were against it, but the rest of the country was for it.
posted by maggiemaggie at 3:16 PM on April 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
One of the things I find really interesting is the fact that the bomb which hit the train station had “for the children” on it. It suggests that at least some rank-and-file Russian soldiers may actually believe the propaganda the state is putting out about how all atrocities are the result of the Ukrainians doing it to themselves.
I would love to know what the percentages are, though I don’t think we ever will.
posted by corb at 3:55 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
I would love to know what the percentages are, though I don’t think we ever will.
posted by corb at 3:55 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ukrainians shocked by 'crazy' scene at Chernobyl after Russian pullout reveals radioactive contamination [CNN Lite]
[Near the alleged Red Forest entrenchment site] CNN saw a Russian military ration box that exhibited radiation levels 50 times above naturally occurring values.posted by glonous keming at 4:05 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
[...]
Russian soldiers held Chernobyl for a month and are thought to have been operating in contaminated areas most of the time.
[...]
169 Ukraine National Guard soldiers, who guarded the facility, were locked in the plant's Cold War era underground nuclear bunker, crammed up in tight quarters without access to natural light, fresh air or communication with the outside world, according to the Ukrainian Interior Minister.
"They were kept here for 30 days without sufficient lighting and food. They were not allowed outside. On the last day they were taken away from here to an unknown direction," Denys Monastyrskyy says while standing inside the bunker.
Something that hasn't been adequately explained to me - what is the strategic value in taking Chernobyl? Stationing troops there and fortifying it, imprisoning the workers there... how does that aid your effort in any way? I get that it's on the road to Kyiv, but just drive past it. There's nothing there but radioactive waste.
posted by adept256 at 4:10 PM on April 8, 2022
posted by adept256 at 4:10 PM on April 8, 2022
@gbrumfiel: "NEW: A satellite image from @planet conclusively shows that Russian troops were camped out in one of the most radioactive parts of the Chernobyl exclusion zone." Tweet links to an NPR story (where he works).
There's nothing there but radioactive waste.
Chatter at the time was that they established an ammo and fuel dump there, idea being to leverage Ukrainian unwillingness to risk stirring up the contamination or damaging the facility to strike.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:13 PM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's nothing there but radioactive waste.
Chatter at the time was that they established an ammo and fuel dump there, idea being to leverage Ukrainian unwillingness to risk stirring up the contamination or damaging the facility to strike.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:13 PM on April 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
The strategic value is that it is on a major road going towards Kyiv. Northern Ukraine is mud this time of year so you need to take and hold highways to move stuff around. The roads are there because they follow the river. Nuclear power plants need water to run their stream turbines so they are often located next to rivers.
posted by interogative mood at 4:24 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:24 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
That makes a lot of sense, who would be so reckless as to bomb a nuclear waste site? I may be forgiven for not considering this, until recently I thought bombing an active nuclear reactor was unimaginable.
posted by adept256 at 4:28 PM on April 8, 2022
posted by adept256 at 4:28 PM on April 8, 2022
Until recently I thought this kind of entire shut down of a country's internal information system and mobilization of the populace in support of an international war of this scale was unimaginable. The bombing of the nuclear reactors was just more of that. So much of what has gone on is just more and more and more of that unimaginable.
Oh, and the "dying in a flash of light" dreams are back again after decades of being gone, so thanks for that, too.
posted by hippybear at 4:32 PM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
Oh, and the "dying in a flash of light" dreams are back again after decades of being gone, so thanks for that, too.
posted by hippybear at 4:32 PM on April 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
From Visegrád 24, a pointed demonstration in London: The people of London have gathered in front of the Russian Embassy, bringing things with them that the Russians can take as trophies in exchange for leaving UA alone.
People brought washing machines, toasters, linen, children's toys and other items that Russians seem to need.
posted by vers at 4:32 PM on April 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
People brought washing machines, toasters, linen, children's toys and other items that Russians seem to need.
posted by vers at 4:32 PM on April 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Russian soldiers are for the most part poorly educated, poorly trained and given simple orders. They were told to secure the area; so they attacked it like the way they know how which starts with bombs and artillery. Most of them didn’t know about the accident and that they were in the middle of one of the most contaminated places in the world, nor were they ever educated about the dangers of radiation if they did. They don’t get the NBC training that Americans soldiers get.
posted by interogative mood at 4:36 PM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:36 PM on April 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Alternatively, perhaps the commanders deliberately sacrificed some troops in the name of psychological warfare (i.e., “holy shit, those motherfuckers are crazy, they could do anything”)
posted by acb at 4:52 PM on April 8, 2022
posted by acb at 4:52 PM on April 8, 2022
How is acting like a crazy motherfucker materially different from being a crazy motherfucker?
posted by adept256 at 4:59 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 4:59 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
The person acting like a crazy motherfucker believes that they have a system.
Of course, as a famous philosopher said, everybody has a system up until they get punched in the mouth.
posted by acb at 5:05 PM on April 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
Of course, as a famous philosopher said, everybody has a system up until they get punched in the mouth.
posted by acb at 5:05 PM on April 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
Those most recent 1420 videos were amazing. People seem much less gung-ho about the war, a lot more talking about how "both sides" were untrustworthy, even if they thought the reports from Bucha were fake, how they are against war and in favor of peace for everyone. Hopefully some people will start experiencing some cognitive dissonance over whether the reasons they went to war in the first place were trustworthy.
Also interesting to see a lot of people saying they just didn't think about the war or follow the news, and one guy says "it's hard to say when there is responsibility for statements that contradict the position of the state".
posted by Reverend John at 5:06 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Also interesting to see a lot of people saying they just didn't think about the war or follow the news, and one guy says "it's hard to say when there is responsibility for statements that contradict the position of the state".
posted by Reverend John at 5:06 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
The 1420 video Are you brainwashed? reminded me strongly of what Timothy Snyder described as an presently enacted principle from Ivan Ilyin's philosophy. "The world is not factual. The world is just subjective."
posted by droomoord at 5:15 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by droomoord at 5:15 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Wordy but not-bad, why Ukraine Is Winning:
The Ukrainian way of war is a coherent, intelligent, and well-conceived strategy to fight the Russians, one well calibrated to take advantage of specific Russian weaknesses. It has allowed the Ukrainians to maintain mobility, helped force the Russians into static positions for long periods by fouling up their logistics, opened up the Russians to high losses from attrition, and, in the Battle of Kyiv, led to a victory that has completely recast the political endgame of the Russian invasion. The original maximalist Russian attempt to seize all of Ukraine has been drastically scaled back to a far more limited effort aimed at seizing territory in the east and south of the country.posted by peeedro at 5:15 PM on April 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Ukrainian way of war has a few foundational elements that we have seen in operation around Kyiv and across the country. They are:
Contesting air supremacy over the area of battle;
Denying Russia control of cities, complicating the Russian military’s communications and logistics;
Allowing Russian forces to get strung out along roads in difficult-to-support columns; and
Attacking those columns from all sides.
Reuters: Ukrainian PM says this year's harvest will be 20% less than last year
April 8 (Reuters) - Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Friday this year's grain harvest is likely to be 20% less than last year because of a reduced sowing area following Russia's invasion.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:05 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
He said there was a shortage of fuel for farmers but Ukraine knew how to keep them supplied. He also said Ukraine had large stocks of grain, cereals and vegetable oil, and could feed its population.
Global food prices rise to highest ever levels after Russian invasion - World wheat prices soared by 19.7% in March as war in Ukraine disrupted Black Sea exports, FAO price index reveals, Kaamil Ahmed, The Guardian, 8 Apr 2022:
Global food prices rose to their highest ever levels in March as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN has reported.posted by cenoxo at 8:34 PM on April 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Cooking oils, cereals and meats hit all-time highs and meant food commodities cost a third more than the same time last year, according to the [United Nations] Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index published on Friday.
The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted Black Sea exports of crucial commodities from a region that had been producing more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports.
The war has helped push cereal prices up 17% over the past month with the closure of ports throttling wheat and maize exports from Ukraine. Russian exports have also been slowed by financial and shipping problems. World wheat prices soared by 19.7% during March, while maize prices posted a 19.1% month-on-month increase, hitting a record high along with those of barley and sorghum.
The FAO said these problems were likely to persist, leading to higher prices, lower stocks and uncertainty in the wheat market in the future....
As Ukraine Pummels Russians With Javelin Missiles, Can Production Keep Pace With Demand? The delivery of thousands of Javelin missiles, as well as Stingers, to Ukraine has raised critical questions about production capacity., Howard Altman & Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, April 7 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 9:42 PM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
Congress is asking the Pentagon whether the Defense Production Act, or DPA, should be invoked to ensure supplies of Javelin anti-tank missile systems, as well as Stinger surface-to-air missiles, continue to flow to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have used both of these weapons to great effect in their ongoing defense against Russia’s onslaught. At the same time, questions are growing about the U.S. defense industry’s ability to meet increased demand for these missiles, not just from Ukraine, but in the event that the U.S. military needs to acquire more of them quickly during a major future conflict.More discussion in the article.
“To produce more of the Javelins, Stingers – all the stocks that we are using and diminishing and running low on and our allies, as well – shouldn't we be applying the Defense Production Act?” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a Senate Armed Services Committee budget hearing today.
“We are pushing hard to engage in industry to make sure that we move the production of these items as quickly as we can,” Austin responded. “And that's not an easy task with at least one of the items here, but we will continue to move this in terms of additional production as fast and efficiently as we can.”
...
A fact sheet the Pentagon released today says the U.S. government has delivered more than 1,400 Stingers and over 5,000 Javelins, as well as more than 7,000 other anti-armor weapons, to Ukraine to date. Earlier in the day, Army Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that the United States and its allies and partners have provided the Ukrainian armed forces with 60,000 anti-tank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons. You can read more about the diverse array of shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons that Ukraine is known to have received so far here.
...
[Sen. Blumenthal's] remarks reflect a broader set of questions that many members of Congress, as well as experts and observers, are now increasingly asking. The big ones are how many more shipments of various weapon systems, especially Javelins and Stingers, can the U.S. provide to Ukraine while maintaining a sufficient stockpile for itself and how quickly can those stocks be replenished?
posted by cenoxo at 9:42 PM on April 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
Mod note: A few deleted. Sorry, but let's keep the thread about actual news and facts rather than "what if" scenarios.
posted by taz (staff) at 11:21 PM on April 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 11:21 PM on April 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
From Visegrád 24No reason anyone who isn't closely following politics in this part of the world should know this, but please don't use Visegrád 24 as a news source and please discourage others from doing so.
Although their tweets are fairly anodyne now, they used to post right wing anti-EU content and mostly follow (last time I looked) right wing Polish organisations. If you search their old tweets for 'Soros' and 'Le Pen' you can see their true slant.
As in the linked tweet above they don't link to their sources and there's no information about who is behind the account. They present themselves as an independent news source but there's clearly something unsavoury going on.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 2:58 AM on April 9, 2022 [37 favorites]
Ursula von der Leynen, President of the European Commission, personally gave the EU membership questionnaire to Zelenskiy in Kyiv yesterday. Ukraine expects to be given candidate status in June. Candidate status comes with access to both money and technical assistance from countries with lots of experience with rebuilding after World War II (Western Europe) and Russian occupation (Eastern).
Meanwhile in Poland alarm sirens are set to go off today to commemorate the 12th anniversary of the Smolensk disaster. Lots of appeals from local authorities to cancel it because of the hundreds of thousands of traumatised Ukrainian children currently sheltering in Poland.
Incidentally, Kaczynski J. is once again promoting the crash as an assassination by Russians, chiefly because it takes the blame off him and his twin for pressuring the pilot to land in heavy fog to keep to the schedule...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:30 AM on April 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
Meanwhile in Poland alarm sirens are set to go off today to commemorate the 12th anniversary of the Smolensk disaster. Lots of appeals from local authorities to cancel it because of the hundreds of thousands of traumatised Ukrainian children currently sheltering in Poland.
Incidentally, Kaczynski J. is once again promoting the crash as an assassination by Russians, chiefly because it takes the blame off him and his twin for pressuring the pilot to land in heavy fog to keep to the schedule...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:30 AM on April 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
Euromaidan Press on Twitter
According to Slovakian media, Slovakia and Ukraine have almost finalized a Deal on the Sale of Slovakian-made 16 ZUZANA 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:39 AM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
This is one of those weapons Ukraine has been asking for with a firing range of 41 kilometers.
The NYT has some more details on the Russians at Chernobyl. It verifies all the digging of trenches, etc., and provides an episode that may have been the source of the "massive radiation exposure" stories.
In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter.posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:43 AM on April 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
A chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit, you say?
posted by acb at 7:26 AM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:26 AM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Also, it appears Russia has declared war on YouTube.
(Not literally, but YT has blocked broadcasts from the Duma, and the Russians are pissed.)
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:46 AM on April 9, 2022
(Not literally, but YT has blocked broadcasts from the Duma, and the Russians are pissed.)
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:46 AM on April 9, 2022
Business Insider: Russia to fast-track adoptions of Ukrainian children 'forcibly deported' after their parents were killed by Putin's troops, authorities say
The Ukrainian Ombudswoman for Human Rights has said that the Russian government is crafting legislation to allow Russians to adopt Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia by military forces.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:58 AM on April 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
She has also stated that, so far, over 121,000 children have been "deported" by the Russian government.
121,000 hostages, is what that’s more like. Although I suspect that those hostages will never be seen again, because in the Russian mindset, it’s a hell of a lot easier to just shoot the hostages yourself, incinerate the bodies, and claim they’re still fine and will remain so as long as Ukraine and NATO do (insert series of escalating unconscionable demands here).
This might sound wingnut crazy… but I really don’t think it is.
posted by notoriety public at 8:31 AM on April 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
This might sound wingnut crazy… but I really don’t think it is.
posted by notoriety public at 8:31 AM on April 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
121,000 hostages, is what that’s more like. Although I suspect that those hostages will never be seen again
No, this is part and parcel of cultural genocide. Essentially, making Russian families into mini re-education camps.
posted by corb at 8:39 AM on April 9, 2022 [37 favorites]
No, this is part and parcel of cultural genocide. Essentially, making Russian families into mini re-education camps.
posted by corb at 8:39 AM on April 9, 2022 [37 favorites]
The 1420 videos show you how effective a broad fake news strategy is. So many people say that everyone is lying, they don't know what to believe, and so they just step back and stop engaging.
posted by prefpara at 8:55 AM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 8:55 AM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
OTOH, maybe that's how you express your opposition when a guy with a camera catches you on the street in Moscow. Those expressing support for Putin's war are far more direct.
posted by ryanrs at 9:36 AM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:36 AM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
“No, this is part and parcel of cultural genocide. Essentially, making Russian families into mini re-education camps.”
I'm very unhappy with all the "this is the way Russia is" takes I'm seeing.
However, in terms of institutional history and experience, USSR/Russia has basically been "resettling" and "reeducating" ethnic populations for ninety years. To be sure, this is part and parcel of the imperialist modus operandi and it's done all over the world by both great and minor powers — and internally and externally — but I think this is something the Russian government will do as a matter of course because it always has.
It's difficult to overstate how ubiquitous it is in the world, now and in the past, to use the (often coerced) displacement of children as a means to an end. Trans-national adoption? Indian schools? Those are two examples that are closer to home for many of us here.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:55 AM on April 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
I'm very unhappy with all the "this is the way Russia is" takes I'm seeing.
However, in terms of institutional history and experience, USSR/Russia has basically been "resettling" and "reeducating" ethnic populations for ninety years. To be sure, this is part and parcel of the imperialist modus operandi and it's done all over the world by both great and minor powers — and internally and externally — but I think this is something the Russian government will do as a matter of course because it always has.
It's difficult to overstate how ubiquitous it is in the world, now and in the past, to use the (often coerced) displacement of children as a means to an end. Trans-national adoption? Indian schools? Those are two examples that are closer to home for many of us here.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:55 AM on April 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
That's all true, but it sounds like your response seems to be that it's not really genocide. In fact it's explicitly one of the UN's legal definitions:
Trans-national adoptions (generally) don't apply, as its purpose is not (again, generally) to destroy in whole or in part the national or ethnic identity of the place those children come from.
But Indian schools? That absolutely was genocide. And the fact that Russia in its far east, and Canada and the US just about across their entire nations have not moved toward justice for these genocidal acts is a moral stain on these countries.
But this thread, again, is about Russia. And what it is doing -- right now -- is genocide. The RIA Novosty article is a manifesto, and the forcible kidnapping of claimed-to-be orphaned Ukrainian children to be raised as Russian is genocide in practice.
posted by tclark at 10:03 AM on April 9, 2022 [42 favorites]
Article 2 of the Convention defines genocide asThe denial on the part of the Russian government that Ukrainian is not a distinct ethnic or national identity from Russian and the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to be raised by Russians specifically as Russians is genocide.
... any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Trans-national adoptions (generally) don't apply, as its purpose is not (again, generally) to destroy in whole or in part the national or ethnic identity of the place those children come from.
But Indian schools? That absolutely was genocide. And the fact that Russia in its far east, and Canada and the US just about across their entire nations have not moved toward justice for these genocidal acts is a moral stain on these countries.
But this thread, again, is about Russia. And what it is doing -- right now -- is genocide. The RIA Novosty article is a manifesto, and the forcible kidnapping of claimed-to-be orphaned Ukrainian children to be raised as Russian is genocide in practice.
posted by tclark at 10:03 AM on April 9, 2022 [42 favorites]
Operation Keelhaul
"Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn called this operation "the last secret of World War II."
"Soviets Executed GIs After WWII : Prisoners: Other Americans were forced to renounce citizenship, Yeltsin writes Senate panel."
posted by clavdivs at 10:19 AM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
"Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn called this operation "the last secret of World War II."
"Soviets Executed GIs After WWII : Prisoners: Other Americans were forced to renounce citizenship, Yeltsin writes Senate panel."
posted by clavdivs at 10:19 AM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukrinform: Russian shipyards halt production of ships due to lack of foreign components - intelligence
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:37 AM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
According to Ukrinform, the press office of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported this on Facebook.They also claim production of gunpowder charges for naval artillery has been stopped due to shortages, which seems odd.
"At the Russian shipyards, there is a critical situation in the implementation of existing contracts for the construction and maintenance of warships. It was caused by the difficult financial situation and lack of foreign components," the statement said.
In particular, it is noted that Vostochnaya Verf JSC (Vladivostok) is to execute state orders totaling 35 billion rubles. This includes the construction and supply of two sea tankers, two small rocket ships, two mobile offshore berths, repair and maintenance of ships and boats of various types. At the same time, from the letter of a military representative of the Russian Defense Ministry it becomes clear that by early April 2022 all work has been suspended due to the strained financial situation. Personnel are being laid off, and contract execution deadlines have been disrupted. Specifically, the companies are being prepared to begin bankruptcy proceedings.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:37 AM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
...but it sounds like your response seems to be that it's not really genocide.”
What? No? Where did you get that impression?
My point was precisely that this is exactly what people do when they are trying to erase another culture and that Russia has a long history of doing this.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:43 AM on April 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
What? No? Where did you get that impression?
My point was precisely that this is exactly what people do when they are trying to erase another culture and that Russia has a long history of doing this.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:43 AM on April 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Where I think you all might not be thinking evil enough is to accept on faith that they even would waste the effort “re-educating” the children
I think it is important to say - and I say this as someone who has people I care about fighting against the Russian Army in Ukraine right now - that no people is inherently evil. Yes, the Kremlin is ordering atrocities right now, yes, the Russian soldiers are carrying them out, yes, many of the Russian people are supporting the war, but that does not make the Russians evil as a people, and when we are trying to think of what they are likely to do, we must remember that.
Believing propaganda, or being confused by propaganda, doesn't make you evil, it makes you misled. It means that your choices will perpetuate suffering because you are wrong, but it doesn't mean you will commit the evil of deliberately killing children in the same way that traumatized and severely hazed conscripts can be ordered to do so.
We must still save the children. We must still save them as soon as possible. But I don't think it's helpful to just think of the most evil thing possible and assume the Russians will do it.
posted by corb at 11:28 AM on April 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
I think it is important to say - and I say this as someone who has people I care about fighting against the Russian Army in Ukraine right now - that no people is inherently evil. Yes, the Kremlin is ordering atrocities right now, yes, the Russian soldiers are carrying them out, yes, many of the Russian people are supporting the war, but that does not make the Russians evil as a people, and when we are trying to think of what they are likely to do, we must remember that.
Believing propaganda, or being confused by propaganda, doesn't make you evil, it makes you misled. It means that your choices will perpetuate suffering because you are wrong, but it doesn't mean you will commit the evil of deliberately killing children in the same way that traumatized and severely hazed conscripts can be ordered to do so.
We must still save the children. We must still save them as soon as possible. But I don't think it's helpful to just think of the most evil thing possible and assume the Russians will do it.
posted by corb at 11:28 AM on April 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
Also, the mods have repeatedly asked us to keep speculation to a minimum in these threads, and focus on actual reporting and news.
posted by mbrubeck at 11:48 AM on April 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 11:48 AM on April 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
NYT: Spurred by Putin, Russians Turn on One Another Over the War (Archive)
Details incidents of Russians denouncing each other over lack of support for the not-a-war. Towards the end they have a couple "heartwarming" examples of people rallying to pay the fines incurred. One computer shop owner received more than double his fine of 100,000 rubles and donated the rest to a legal aid group.
Details incidents of Russians denouncing each other over lack of support for the not-a-war. Towards the end they have a couple "heartwarming" examples of people rallying to pay the fines incurred. One computer shop owner received more than double his fine of 100,000 rubles and donated the rest to a legal aid group.
Mr. Grachev is now pondering how to replace his “no to war” sign. He is considering: “There was a sign here for which a 100,000 ruble fine was imposed.”posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:52 AM on April 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
To be sure, this is part and parcel of the imperialist modus operandi and it's done all over the world by both great and minor powers — and internally and externally — but I think this is something the Russian government will do as a matter of course because it always has.
Ivan, this conflict has really hit home for me in a very personal way. When we lived in China, and I was getting angry and frustrated about the Uighur situation, I saw a tiktok video of a young Uighur girl showing off her "modern" (Chinese) culture and fashion. I showed it to my wife and she was pretty nonplussed. "That is me" she said.
Of course it is deeper and more complicated than that, but... my wife is Tajik but a Russian native speaker and modern and "western" in her outlook, she is from the USSR, her native country is gone now. She points me to her cousins, and to the new generation of Tajik women, living much more proscribed lives. She is the woman who I love and who is grateful for her exposure to Russian colonisation. And I can see her point! And in Moscow the Tajiks are treated like dirt, and they are flocking there and happily taking Russian passports!
And that young Uighur girl, I think she will likely be very happy to live a relatively liberated life with fashion and modern pop music and dancing and... this is part of the Chinese project in Xinjiang. That and the genocide.
And the Russians are here, on the border, and have been for decades. Protecting us from the Taliban, from another civil war, from the encroachment of "local" cultural norms... they are guarding the borders of civilisation.
There are black and whites in the world, yes, and I do not even 1% condone or accept what Russia is doing in Ukraine. And my wife's grandparents were colonised by Russia, and my MiL, FiL, and even wife would not be so unhappy to be colonised again. Oi oi...
posted by Meatbomb at 12:00 PM on April 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
Ivan, this conflict has really hit home for me in a very personal way. When we lived in China, and I was getting angry and frustrated about the Uighur situation, I saw a tiktok video of a young Uighur girl showing off her "modern" (Chinese) culture and fashion. I showed it to my wife and she was pretty nonplussed. "That is me" she said.
Of course it is deeper and more complicated than that, but... my wife is Tajik but a Russian native speaker and modern and "western" in her outlook, she is from the USSR, her native country is gone now. She points me to her cousins, and to the new generation of Tajik women, living much more proscribed lives. She is the woman who I love and who is grateful for her exposure to Russian colonisation. And I can see her point! And in Moscow the Tajiks are treated like dirt, and they are flocking there and happily taking Russian passports!
And that young Uighur girl, I think she will likely be very happy to live a relatively liberated life with fashion and modern pop music and dancing and... this is part of the Chinese project in Xinjiang. That and the genocide.
And the Russians are here, on the border, and have been for decades. Protecting us from the Taliban, from another civil war, from the encroachment of "local" cultural norms... they are guarding the borders of civilisation.
There are black and whites in the world, yes, and I do not even 1% condone or accept what Russia is doing in Ukraine. And my wife's grandparents were colonised by Russia, and my MiL, FiL, and even wife would not be so unhappy to be colonised again. Oi oi...
posted by Meatbomb at 12:00 PM on April 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
They’ve learned from the enemy’s example the dangers of using inexperienced crews in armored assaults. The crew of one Russian BMP was three lieutenants, none from combat arms (one was a metrologist). This is... a non-standard BMP crew.The Russian Army is putting three HQ O-2s in an IFV? Normally you find one officer to 29 enlisted among three BMPs in a Russian motorized rifle platoon. Whatever is going on over there has got to be getting even worse. Even officers can't seem to escape the meat grinder.
I have blurred faces, names & birthdates.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:02 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Knowing the history of Russian and Soviet armies, I'm wondering if the HQ lieutenants were the ones who tried to tell the upper brass how idiotic the invasion plans were...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:15 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:15 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Such a waste, even the metrologist didn't measure up.
posted by ryanrs at 12:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 12:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile on Russian state TV: along with losing his Italian villas to sanctions, state TV host Vladimir Solovyov seems to have lost his mind. This messaging—portraying Ukrainians as "satanic Nazis" and claiming Zelensky is not a Jew—is commonplace on Kremlin-controlled state TV.Russian state TV is fucking nuts. And this is the most popular TV channel in Russia broadcasting it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:40 PM on April 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
NATO countries have agreed to supply heavy weapons. It looks like they are going to start by sending a lot of the old Soviet Tanks, APC’s, S-300 Anti-Aircraft and some long range artillery, along other hardware Ukraine knows how to use. The US will be sending replacement equipment to the NATO members who are former Warsaw Pact counties.
The US Senate also passed a lend lease bill which would allow President Biden to basically open a tab for Ukraine and grant pre-authorization of weapons transfers to Ukraine . The bill still needs to pass the House. We’ll see what happens there.
posted by interogative mood at 1:14 PM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
The US Senate also passed a lend lease bill which would allow President Biden to basically open a tab for Ukraine and grant pre-authorization of weapons transfers to Ukraine . The bill still needs to pass the House. We’ll see what happens there.
posted by interogative mood at 1:14 PM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
NATO countries have agreed to supply heavy weapons. It looks like they are going to start by sending a lot of the old Soviet Tanks, APC’s, S-300 Anti-Aircraft and some long range artillery, along other hardware Ukraine knows how to use. The US will be sending replacement equipment to the NATO members who are former Warsaw Pact counties.
I hope they get some 155mm howitzers in there. UA is starting to run low on 152mm shells and getting them more 155mm equipment, among other NATO calibers, will make it far easier to source ammo. The Czechs were getting 152mm ammo to UA before the war and Poland had a tender out on them last year but I don't know where they're going to source a shitton more from.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I hope they get some 155mm howitzers in there. UA is starting to run low on 152mm shells and getting them more 155mm equipment, among other NATO calibers, will make it far easier to source ammo. The Czechs were getting 152mm ammo to UA before the war and Poland had a tender out on them last year but I don't know where they're going to source a shitton more from.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
What? No? Where did you get that impression?
Apologies, I read the response as a "I guess, but" rather than a "I agree, and."
posted by tclark at 1:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Apologies, I read the response as a "I guess, but" rather than a "I agree, and."
posted by tclark at 1:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands
Sorry to be that guy, but this is literally crazypants insane. Cobalt-60 has a bunch of medically therapeutic uses, from gamma radiation sterilization to "gamma knife" radiosurgery. It's not an unknown danger or mystery substance, where an "oopise" can be expected; safe handling procedures are well established and documented to the extent that medical workers and undergrad chemistry students should know this is not something to fuck with.
There was a fatal incident in India a decade ago where machinery that handled cobalt-60 was sold to the local scrap market, after being mothballed for 25 years; one person died, several more were hospitalized. Here's a video made in the aftermath of that event showing the safe handling of cobalt-60, it's handled by robotic arms with at least 2 meters of leaded glass between humans and the source material. Fucking insane that anyone would handle it with bare hands.
posted by peeedro at 1:55 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Sorry to be that guy, but this is literally crazypants insane. Cobalt-60 has a bunch of medically therapeutic uses, from gamma radiation sterilization to "gamma knife" radiosurgery. It's not an unknown danger or mystery substance, where an "oopise" can be expected; safe handling procedures are well established and documented to the extent that medical workers and undergrad chemistry students should know this is not something to fuck with.
There was a fatal incident in India a decade ago where machinery that handled cobalt-60 was sold to the local scrap market, after being mothballed for 25 years; one person died, several more were hospitalized. Here's a video made in the aftermath of that event showing the safe handling of cobalt-60, it's handled by robotic arms with at least 2 meters of leaded glass between humans and the source material. Fucking insane that anyone would handle it with bare hands.
posted by peeedro at 1:55 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Pretty sure that soldier had no idea what he was handling, either due to lack of training (most likely) or lack of clear labeling (at Chernobyl, highly unlikely). Or he knew but was ordered. Or...
I mean, yes, you don't do that. You just don't.
posted by hippybear at 1:57 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I mean, yes, you don't do that. You just don't.
posted by hippybear at 1:57 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
undergrad chemistry students should know
Well, the worst kind of dangerous is people with training, but no actual experience. People start feeling like they have the expertise to decide when to break the rules, like rules are for newbies or "civilians", but not for them. I'm betting an NBC warfare "specialist" has never handled non-simulated Co-60 before.
posted by ctmf at 2:08 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Well, the worst kind of dangerous is people with training, but no actual experience. People start feeling like they have the expertise to decide when to break the rules, like rules are for newbies or "civilians", but not for them. I'm betting an NBC warfare "specialist" has never handled non-simulated Co-60 before.
posted by ctmf at 2:08 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
This is my last speculation, but I wonder if it was sitting in the Red Forest because that was an already contaminated space and so people working there who knew what was going on weren't going there anyway. But then, these outsiders come in, there is no context for where they are or what is going on, and they find this stuff out in the woods....
Anyway, back to actual facts.
posted by hippybear at 2:19 PM on April 9, 2022
Anyway, back to actual facts.
posted by hippybear at 2:19 PM on April 9, 2022
Chornobyl has a number of radioactive waste dumps where the Soviets buried a lot of the remains of the reactor after is blew up, along with a lot of contaminated equipment they used to clean stuff up. It isn’t clear if the Russians dig into those dumps as part of the defensive works they tried to setup or if the soldier found it while scavenging for trophy to bring home.
posted by interogative mood at 2:54 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 2:54 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
A part of the reason Russians are forcibly taking Ukrainians is that their narrative is they are liberating Ukrainians. As such, it's important they show there are refugees.
posted by xammerboy at 2:59 PM on April 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by xammerboy at 2:59 PM on April 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
Fiona Hill discussed that aspect on the most recent Ezra Klein show, which made the inflated numbers more understandable. [Archive link to transcript.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:20 PM on April 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:20 PM on April 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
(That was the podcast, sorry, here's the transcript.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
There are active facilities for storing and monitoring radioactive waste there, with samples for comparison, etc. The cobalt-60 exposure is, as far as I've seen, independent of the Red Forest entrenching troops and was (in some reports) a member of a specialized (!) unit sent to such facilities there.
Cobalt-60 is extremely radioactive, a gamma ray source, and precisely for that reason is used in radiation therapy. There are a number of severe cobalt-60 accidental acute radiation poisonings in the literature. An infamous one was in Brazil resulting from scrap collectors encountering a facility that hadn't been properly decommissioned but just abandoned in place.
Anyway, just it being cobalt-60 doesn't really tell us much — it all depends upon the original quantity and how old the sample is. But, yeah, it could definitely be "drop and run".
So that story of ARS is credible. All the alarmism about the Red Forest stuff is very overblown, however.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:34 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Cobalt-60 is extremely radioactive, a gamma ray source, and precisely for that reason is used in radiation therapy. There are a number of severe cobalt-60 accidental acute radiation poisonings in the literature. An infamous one was in Brazil resulting from scrap collectors encountering a facility that hadn't been properly decommissioned but just abandoned in place.
Anyway, just it being cobalt-60 doesn't really tell us much — it all depends upon the original quantity and how old the sample is. But, yeah, it could definitely be "drop and run".
So that story of ARS is credible. All the alarmism about the Red Forest stuff is very overblown, however.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:34 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
There are a lot of Ukrainian men stuck in the Ukraine right now, and a lot of the Ukrainian men that were abroad went back as soon as they could. So there are not that many Ukrainian men available outside of Ukraine. Meanwhile there are a lot of Ukrainian women who are refugees in other countries, and a fair number of those women could use jobs.
Of course there are a lot of people of both genders in Ukraine who signed up for training - are they sending any of them abroad to train on NATO weapons systems?
This appears to be a training centre in Ukraine but it is small, designed to train peacekeepers and the info is probably long out of date.
I really hope that a bunch of them are being recruited for training and maintaining western weapons systems. Train, say 200, of them to use systems that require 200 hours of training, and give them another hundred hours so they can be trainers, and then send them back. The situation seems stable enough that lots of them have headed back already. The Soviet style weapons are going to be in increasingly short supply. We could be getting a head start on training personnel to use NATO's technology, whose presence in Ukraine would in no way count as them being NATO troops. They might be more useful on a NATO base learning how to do avionics or some such than anywhere else.
They could also reduce the course enormously to get them ready faster, such as by not training them to repair the components, and only teaching them to install, and supplying them with a large supply of replacement kits they just need to install, or training them to be specialists on one system and not the related ones.
I am really interested in if this kind of training is already taking place and how fast they are scaling up. But I imagine that this is the kind of data that is not being reported. We are hearing a lot about how the Russians are mobilizing and who they are mobilizing and where they are getting the personnel and equipment from, but the only stories on support for the Ukraine has been talking about the money and equipment that is pouring in from so many locations.
posted by Jane the Brown at 4:50 PM on April 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Of course there are a lot of people of both genders in Ukraine who signed up for training - are they sending any of them abroad to train on NATO weapons systems?
This appears to be a training centre in Ukraine but it is small, designed to train peacekeepers and the info is probably long out of date.
I really hope that a bunch of them are being recruited for training and maintaining western weapons systems. Train, say 200, of them to use systems that require 200 hours of training, and give them another hundred hours so they can be trainers, and then send them back. The situation seems stable enough that lots of them have headed back already. The Soviet style weapons are going to be in increasingly short supply. We could be getting a head start on training personnel to use NATO's technology, whose presence in Ukraine would in no way count as them being NATO troops. They might be more useful on a NATO base learning how to do avionics or some such than anywhere else.
They could also reduce the course enormously to get them ready faster, such as by not training them to repair the components, and only teaching them to install, and supplying them with a large supply of replacement kits they just need to install, or training them to be specialists on one system and not the related ones.
I am really interested in if this kind of training is already taking place and how fast they are scaling up. But I imagine that this is the kind of data that is not being reported. We are hearing a lot about how the Russians are mobilizing and who they are mobilizing and where they are getting the personnel and equipment from, but the only stories on support for the Ukraine has been talking about the money and equipment that is pouring in from so many locations.
posted by Jane the Brown at 4:50 PM on April 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Periodic reminder that "the Ukraine" refers to some hypothetical Russian province, whereas "Ukraine" is the name of a country under siege.
posted by tigrrrlily at 4:56 PM on April 9, 2022 [23 favorites]
posted by tigrrrlily at 4:56 PM on April 9, 2022 [23 favorites]
The First News: (Polish) Govt. launches guide on how to survive Russian invasion
Yes. The US has some, probably training on Switchblades and Pumas (drones.) Details are--for obvious reasons--hard to come by.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:11 PM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
A new ‘guidebook’ giving Poles tips on what to do if they are captured by Russian soldiers in the event of invasion includes instructions such as ‘don’t beg’, ‘make eye contact’ and only run away ‘if you are sure you can make it’.are they sending any of them abroad to train on NATO weapons systems?
Entitled ‘Be Ready. Guidebook for Crisis and War’, the list of dos and don’ts was written by experts from the Government Centre for Safety (RCB), who say that "it pays to be knowledgeable and prepared for different situations."
The RCB posted the advisory on its website Tuesday, April 5, just a couple of days after news of images of Russian war crimes from Bucha emerged.
Yes. The US has some, probably training on Switchblades and Pumas (drones.) Details are--for obvious reasons--hard to come by.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:11 PM on April 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Boris Johnson was in Kyiv Saturday and he said they are sending Harpoon missile systems to Ukraine to help Ukraine protect coastal cities. The Harpoon is an older, but still effective anti-ship missile. It’s been widely exported from the US to a number of counties including India and Pakistan. Once launched at a target from 50-100 miles away it drops down and skims the waves at > 500mph before sending at 500 pound warhead into the side of the targeted ship.
posted by interogative mood at 5:15 PM on April 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:15 PM on April 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
We could be getting a head start on training personnel to use NATO's technology, whose presence in Ukraine would in no way count as them being NATO troops
Good question militarily. Weapons Integration is probably secret though there are many stories like this. One could surmise what else was learned.
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Good question militarily. Weapons Integration is probably secret though there are many stories like this. One could surmise what else was learned.
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
“Periodic reminder that 'the Ukraine' refers to some hypothetical Russian province, whereas 'Ukraine' is the name of a country under siege.”
I acclimated to this years ago, but it was a bit difficult at first after decades with the Russian usage. What was interesting to me was that when this began in February, I noticed that the Russian usage sounded odd to me and it didn't seem natural at all for me to use it. So, it's not so difficult a transition — obviously it's not difficult to be mindful of it, but I mean that it becomes habit pretty quick.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:09 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I acclimated to this years ago, but it was a bit difficult at first after decades with the Russian usage. What was interesting to me was that when this began in February, I noticed that the Russian usage sounded odd to me and it didn't seem natural at all for me to use it. So, it's not so difficult a transition — obviously it's not difficult to be mindful of it, but I mean that it becomes habit pretty quick.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:09 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I admit, it's nice to see that he can occasionally be something other than a worthless sack of piss.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:23 PM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
If I had any sympathy left for Russian soldiers, I would feel for them being sent back into the charnel house with no expectations for their survival as units and individuals. Seems like a great time for mass mutinies.
The ISW reports and similar writeups keep having stories of Russian units refusing to return to battle, but it's hard to tell how real and how prevalent that really is. It seems nearly certain that morale would be low, particularly for the groups that retreated under fire and took heavy losses, but to get to the level of mutiny is another level entirely.
I very much hope that this latest ISW report is correct in their assessment of the Russian capacities going forward
posted by Dip Flash at 6:47 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
The ISW reports and similar writeups keep having stories of Russian units refusing to return to battle, but it's hard to tell how real and how prevalent that really is. It seems nearly certain that morale would be low, particularly for the groups that retreated under fire and took heavy losses, but to get to the level of mutiny is another level entirely.
I very much hope that this latest ISW report is correct in their assessment of the Russian capacities going forward
posted by Dip Flash at 6:47 PM on April 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
>Seems like a great time for mass mutinies
can't imagine anything more demoralizing than being ordered to advance toward a force adequately equipped with the modern smart munitions like what we've been seeing.
the longer this incursion goes on, the more materiel the Ukrainians will be able to employ to determine where the de-facto Ukrainian border is for the Russians – at least their uniformed forces.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:36 PM on April 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
can't imagine anything more demoralizing than being ordered to advance toward a force adequately equipped with the modern smart munitions like what we've been seeing.
the longer this incursion goes on, the more materiel the Ukrainians will be able to employ to determine where the de-facto Ukrainian border is for the Russians – at least their uniformed forces.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:36 PM on April 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
“Periodic reminder that 'the Ukraine' refers to some hypothetical Russian province, whereas 'Ukraine' is the name of a country under siege.”
This can be a surprisingly difficult transition for English-speakers, which is sort-of fascinating in and of itself, since neither Ukrainian nor Russian have definite articles, but Russian propagandists have pushed really, really hard for almost 100 years(!) to get English-speakers to say "THE Ukraine." In Russian, the difference is "v" Ukraine (in Ukraine) vs. "na" Ukraine (on Ukraine). Being "on" a place in Russian means it's a province or a region; being "in" a place means it's a sovereign territory. "In" a place ("v") means a place with defined edges -- a building, a city, a country. Being "on" a place ("na") means a concept -- you are "on" a lecture, a ballet, a compass direction ("on the South"), or a province of the empire. Moscow gets a "v" because it is a real, defined place; Alaska got a "na" because it was a distant province that was part of Russia but not really its own self-governing thing with edges; it was just an amorphous part of the Russian provinces. Similarly, Russian propaganda wants you to say "na" Ukraine or "the Ukraine", because to Russia, it's not a real place; it's an idea of a place within Russia and Russia gets the "v."
I've been saying "Ukraine" for 30 years, but if I'm talking really fast, "the Ukraine" still has a tendency to reassert itself, since when I first started studying Russia and Ukraine, both still then part of the USSR, and learning the Russian language, as a youthful Eyebrow, it was very definitely "the Ukraine." I always correct myself ("I'm sorry, I meant 'Ukraine.'"). The first time I say "Ukraine" I always say it right, but sometimes when I say it a second or third or tenth time, "the Ukraine" resurfaces. On the plus side, correcting myself has led a bunch of people to say, "Oh, hey, why is it Ukraine and not The Ukraine?" and I get to explain it. It's also one of the few things that I have explained to Americans of all stripes, who have immediately gone, "Ohhhhhhhhhh, that makes sense, I'm going to switch to not using the 'the'!" People are often curious about the why, but I have never met anybody who is insistent about using The Old Way.
Every now and then, this also provides a line of entry into other changing uses of language. And when you point out that Russian propaganda has been super-insistent about English use of the definite article that does not exist in Ukrainian or Russian, people sometimes get a light bulb about other linguistic propaganda, and that using the language that the person being spoken about prefers is a generally better idea.
If you have English-speaking friends who are unclear on this, it's quick and easy to explain to them that "the Midwest" and "the South" are regions of the United States, and nobody thinks that they're sovereign, or you wouldn't use a "the" in front of them. But nobody says "the North" to mean Canada; that would be absurd. An American could say, "I'm from the north" to mean north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but definitely not to mean Canada. Similarly, an American can't say "I'm from the South" to mean MEXICO; it clearly means a region within the US. If you said, "I'm from South," people would wonder wtf you were saying, because the lack of a definite article makes it unclear that you mean the region. (You can say "I'm from South of here" or "I'm from Southie" or "I'm from the South," but not "I'm from South"; that's madness.)
But it's a really fucking fascinating edition of "how apparently-neutral language can be used as tools of oppression" and even Westerners who are normally skeptical of the idea that "correct" or "grammatical" language can be oppressive can understand "Ukraine" vs. "the Ukraine" and the ways propaganda and language work if you explain this to them! And they're often pretty boggled that Russia has spent 100 years on this propaganda because it's important propaganda, and are like, "wow, if Russia really wants me to say this wrong, it must be really important that I say it right!" Which is good in and of itself! But can also open the door to further linguistic revelations.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:49 PM on April 9, 2022 [90 favorites]
This can be a surprisingly difficult transition for English-speakers, which is sort-of fascinating in and of itself, since neither Ukrainian nor Russian have definite articles, but Russian propagandists have pushed really, really hard for almost 100 years(!) to get English-speakers to say "THE Ukraine." In Russian, the difference is "v" Ukraine (in Ukraine) vs. "na" Ukraine (on Ukraine). Being "on" a place in Russian means it's a province or a region; being "in" a place means it's a sovereign territory. "In" a place ("v") means a place with defined edges -- a building, a city, a country. Being "on" a place ("na") means a concept -- you are "on" a lecture, a ballet, a compass direction ("on the South"), or a province of the empire. Moscow gets a "v" because it is a real, defined place; Alaska got a "na" because it was a distant province that was part of Russia but not really its own self-governing thing with edges; it was just an amorphous part of the Russian provinces. Similarly, Russian propaganda wants you to say "na" Ukraine or "the Ukraine", because to Russia, it's not a real place; it's an idea of a place within Russia and Russia gets the "v."
I've been saying "Ukraine" for 30 years, but if I'm talking really fast, "the Ukraine" still has a tendency to reassert itself, since when I first started studying Russia and Ukraine, both still then part of the USSR, and learning the Russian language, as a youthful Eyebrow, it was very definitely "the Ukraine." I always correct myself ("I'm sorry, I meant 'Ukraine.'"). The first time I say "Ukraine" I always say it right, but sometimes when I say it a second or third or tenth time, "the Ukraine" resurfaces. On the plus side, correcting myself has led a bunch of people to say, "Oh, hey, why is it Ukraine and not The Ukraine?" and I get to explain it. It's also one of the few things that I have explained to Americans of all stripes, who have immediately gone, "Ohhhhhhhhhh, that makes sense, I'm going to switch to not using the 'the'!" People are often curious about the why, but I have never met anybody who is insistent about using The Old Way.
Every now and then, this also provides a line of entry into other changing uses of language. And when you point out that Russian propaganda has been super-insistent about English use of the definite article that does not exist in Ukrainian or Russian, people sometimes get a light bulb about other linguistic propaganda, and that using the language that the person being spoken about prefers is a generally better idea.
If you have English-speaking friends who are unclear on this, it's quick and easy to explain to them that "the Midwest" and "the South" are regions of the United States, and nobody thinks that they're sovereign, or you wouldn't use a "the" in front of them. But nobody says "the North" to mean Canada; that would be absurd. An American could say, "I'm from the north" to mean north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but definitely not to mean Canada. Similarly, an American can't say "I'm from the South" to mean MEXICO; it clearly means a region within the US. If you said, "I'm from South," people would wonder wtf you were saying, because the lack of a definite article makes it unclear that you mean the region. (You can say "I'm from South of here" or "I'm from Southie" or "I'm from the South," but not "I'm from South"; that's madness.)
But it's a really fucking fascinating edition of "how apparently-neutral language can be used as tools of oppression" and even Westerners who are normally skeptical of the idea that "correct" or "grammatical" language can be oppressive can understand "Ukraine" vs. "the Ukraine" and the ways propaganda and language work if you explain this to them! And they're often pretty boggled that Russia has spent 100 years on this propaganda because it's important propaganda, and are like, "wow, if Russia really wants me to say this wrong, it must be really important that I say it right!" Which is good in and of itself! But can also open the door to further linguistic revelations.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:49 PM on April 9, 2022 [90 favorites]
Also, spellingukraine.com has been infinitely useful for double checking UA spelling of transliterations.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 PM on April 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 PM on April 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
Honestly, I have had zero problem with going to Ukraine (back in 2014, I think, if not earlier), and also going to Kyiv and like how is any of this a problem? I guess I might be booed for my lack of sympathy on this matter, but I don't get still not Getting It these months (nay, years) later.
posted by hippybear at 8:18 PM on April 9, 2022
posted by hippybear at 8:18 PM on April 9, 2022
Ditto to Eyebrows' comment above, regarding English language media making a remarkably rapid switch to the Ukrainian spelling (transliterated) and pronunciation - Kyiv / 'keev' - from the Russian 'Kiev / kee-yev'. That only took days.
And you get the same "sorry, you're right; I've been hearing it said the other way my whole life, force of habit" apologetic when someone from the 20th century catches themselves using the old chicken-dish pronunciation they're familiar with.
posted by bartleby at 8:27 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
And you get the same "sorry, you're right; I've been hearing it said the other way my whole life, force of habit" apologetic when someone from the 20th century catches themselves using the old chicken-dish pronunciation they're familiar with.
posted by bartleby at 8:27 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
How do you say "People called Russianes they go the house" in Ukranian?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:32 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:32 PM on April 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
"I don't get still not Getting It these months (nay, years) later."
It's not about not getting it, hippybear. It's about language on autopilot. For some reason, in order for me to remember what sumac is called, I always, always have to go "poison ivy, poison oak, poison sumac" even though it's not even the same plant. My mind simply won't bring the word sumac to the forefront without the word "poison" in front of it. My vocabulary rolodex has a card that is permanently stuck, I guess.
People who say "the Ukraine" when of course, they're aware that the "the" doesn't belong and don't want or mean to put it there in the first place, are simply pulling from a deck where the cards often stick together. It takes time, and for some of us, for some things, they will never, ever be unstuck. Do, please have some sympathy.
Not all of us are dialed in to all world events, either. I'm sure there are whole countries that exist that I'm not aware of because they didn't exist when I was in school. As for Ukraine itself, 2014 is when my spouse died, then I lost a bunch of other close family members over the next few years, then I uprooted my whole life, then covid hit and I'm high-risk and trying to do everything alone. I am literally only just now surfacing enough to have bandwidth for world events that don't directly and immediately impact me. Everyone's got something going on. Please do have sympathy for people who are trying to one degree or another. At least we're trying.
posted by tllaya at 8:41 PM on April 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
It's not about not getting it, hippybear. It's about language on autopilot. For some reason, in order for me to remember what sumac is called, I always, always have to go "poison ivy, poison oak, poison sumac" even though it's not even the same plant. My mind simply won't bring the word sumac to the forefront without the word "poison" in front of it. My vocabulary rolodex has a card that is permanently stuck, I guess.
People who say "the Ukraine" when of course, they're aware that the "the" doesn't belong and don't want or mean to put it there in the first place, are simply pulling from a deck where the cards often stick together. It takes time, and for some of us, for some things, they will never, ever be unstuck. Do, please have some sympathy.
Not all of us are dialed in to all world events, either. I'm sure there are whole countries that exist that I'm not aware of because they didn't exist when I was in school. As for Ukraine itself, 2014 is when my spouse died, then I lost a bunch of other close family members over the next few years, then I uprooted my whole life, then covid hit and I'm high-risk and trying to do everything alone. I am literally only just now surfacing enough to have bandwidth for world events that don't directly and immediately impact me. Everyone's got something going on. Please do have sympathy for people who are trying to one degree or another. At least we're trying.
posted by tllaya at 8:41 PM on April 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
If you have English-speaking friends who are unclear on this, it's quick and easy to explain to them that "the Midwest"
Honestly, before Mefi taught me about the Ukrainian definite article situation, the most salient example I can recall about definite articles is Ohio State insisting that they are "the Ohio State University." Language Log covers this as confusing and controversial in 2006, and even the USPTO didn't quite agree with Ohio State University.
Which is good in and of itself! But can also open the door to further linguistic revelations.
Shit, did Putin fund the Yukon Party that rebranded the area as "the Yukon" again?
posted by pwnguin at 9:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Honestly, before Mefi taught me about the Ukrainian definite article situation, the most salient example I can recall about definite articles is Ohio State insisting that they are "the Ohio State University." Language Log covers this as confusing and controversial in 2006, and even the USPTO didn't quite agree with Ohio State University.
Which is good in and of itself! But can also open the door to further linguistic revelations.
Shit, did Putin fund the Yukon Party that rebranded the area as "the Yukon" again?
posted by pwnguin at 9:46 PM on April 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Pakistan’s parliament just ousted the PM Imran Khan. Khan had been avoiding condemning Russia and staying out of it. However the head of the military a few days ago made a pro-Ukraine statement. This division wasn’t the only reason but I suspect it was part of it. Pakistan and a lot of countries would love to use this moment to get back in the good graces of the USA without having to address their problems. Turkey is another example.
There are rumors that there will be some big
Diplomatic breakthroughs with Venezuela and Iran as well. They don’t like the USA but they would love to be out from under sanctions and get the Europeans buying their oil and gas.
posted by interogative mood at 10:34 PM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
There are rumors that there will be some big
Diplomatic breakthroughs with Venezuela and Iran as well. They don’t like the USA but they would love to be out from under sanctions and get the Europeans buying their oil and gas.
posted by interogative mood at 10:34 PM on April 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
FT article is paywalled, but I'm wondering if it's not a mistranslation - karemata or karimata is a popular word in Slavic languages for a foam roll-up camping sleeping mat (from the British producer Karrimor's Karrimat in the 60s). The results for каремат seem to bear it out that it's the same in Ukrainian and Russian. Definitely better than a bathmat and more likely to be carried by a soldier. The mistranslation probably comes from the fact you can also get bathmats from similar foam.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:24 PM on April 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:24 PM on April 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
Mod note: Several deleted. Sorry, but the discussion of which countries or territories have "The" in front of the name, and why, etc., is sort taking over the thread. It's interesting, yes! — and probably a good idea for a separate post where a dedicated discussion on that could happen. Thanks!
posted by taz (staff) at 2:05 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 2:05 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
CNN: Putin appoints new commander for Ukraine .
Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.
The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine
“It speaks to a Russian acknowledgement that it is going extremely badly and they need to do something differently,” the European official said.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:00 AM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.
The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine
“It speaks to a Russian acknowledgement that it is going extremely badly and they need to do something differently,” the European official said.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:00 AM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Strong Spinal Tap appoints new drummer vibes there.
posted by acb at 5:14 AM on April 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:14 AM on April 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I got back from volunteering at the main rail station here in Germany. There are still hundreds of refugees arriving daily. One man who came to visit his family for a day, to bring some presents for the kids, only to head back in a couple of days. Met some women who came from the hardest hit areas in Ukraine. Unfortunately the support from the state is not as strong as it should be — everyone I met was there privately. The state is there basically to send people further to other parts of the country; no matter what people would prefer to do or whether or not there are people here who are willing to house refugees. Refugees get free train tickets but only within Germany; many want to go to family in other countries so they need to buy their own tickets. Polish bus drivers look exhausted and frustrated, more than normal. But maybe it's just my impression. Many Russians here volunteering which is a huge help with the language barrier. Saw Ukrainian teenagers volunteering the early morning and night shift.
posted by UN at 5:35 AM on April 10, 2022 [29 favorites]
posted by UN at 5:35 AM on April 10, 2022 [29 favorites]
Strong Spinal Tap appoints new drummer vibes there.
Seriously? I believe this is their first real theater commander, so not one in a long line. and Dvornikov's work in Syria "laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties." So now they have commander with a track record of atrocities facing a one-month deadline to show some kind of victory for their May Day celebration. This seems like doubling-down on war crimes and is horrifying.
posted by achrise at 5:55 AM on April 10, 2022 [33 favorites]
Seriously? I believe this is their first real theater commander, so not one in a long line. and Dvornikov's work in Syria "laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties." So now they have commander with a track record of atrocities facing a one-month deadline to show some kind of victory for their May Day celebration. This seems like doubling-down on war crimes and is horrifying.
posted by achrise at 5:55 AM on April 10, 2022 [33 favorites]
UN: Refugees get free train tickets but only within Germany
Ukrainian refugees can travel for free on public transport in the Netherlands, by showing only their passports; I assume several other countries have similar arrangements.
posted by Too-Ticky at 6:15 AM on April 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ukrainian refugees can travel for free on public transport in the Netherlands, by showing only their passports; I assume several other countries have similar arrangements.
posted by Too-Ticky at 6:15 AM on April 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
We could be getting a head start on training personnel to use NATO's technology, whose presence in Ukraine would in no way count as them being NATO troops
Some of this is likely; and it's reasonable to assume there are small numbers of the private military contractors that the US routinely relies on (including to train US forces) doing some training inside the country. (Actual training, versus 'advisors' on accompanied patrols -- not to say that couldn't be happening too; but it would be more legally and politically fraught.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:25 AM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Some of this is likely; and it's reasonable to assume there are small numbers of the private military contractors that the US routinely relies on (including to train US forces) doing some training inside the country. (Actual training, versus 'advisors' on accompanied patrols -- not to say that couldn't be happening too; but it would be more legally and politically fraught.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:25 AM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukrainian refugees can travel for free on public transport in the Netherlands, by showing only their passports; I assume several other countries have similar arrangements.
The effectiveness of free tickets is frustrated by limitations, ie the Deutsche Bahn will give someone a ticket to destinations in Germany but not further. One woman arrived from Kharkiv today (!), wanted to go further to a neighboring country but switched to a bus since she could not get a direct ticket (even though there are many trains to her destination). Similar things have been happening in the previous weeks. Unfortunately there's still a lack of coordination in many areas.
posted by UN at 7:01 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
The effectiveness of free tickets is frustrated by limitations, ie the Deutsche Bahn will give someone a ticket to destinations in Germany but not further. One woman arrived from Kharkiv today (!), wanted to go further to a neighboring country but switched to a bus since she could not get a direct ticket (even though there are many trains to her destination). Similar things have been happening in the previous weeks. Unfortunately there's still a lack of coordination in many areas.
posted by UN at 7:01 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Why "The" USSR? Why "The" Russian Federation?
A few comments got deleted responding to something similar (well, not as thoroughly written, merely a list of countries with no commentary), but I liked Meatbomb's point that those referred to types of government.
With regards to v vs na, my Russian is extremely rudimentary (i took it up on duolingo only from 2019 onwards), but one thing to note is that Russian and the other Slavic languages don't have definite articles ('the'; 'a') the way English does, so to begin with it's already an interpretation-as-translation issue, and arguably then an artifact of the English at the time of translation. Several other countries such as in the Carribean still has The in front of their names, and they're very much still British crown colonies or independent-but-with-the-monarch-as-the-head-of-state, which I feel supports this, but I could be wrong too.
Following my comment along those lines, a question was somewhat asked by a comment that merely listed out The Netherlands, but I believe it's related to Dutch being more like English in having definite articles, and it's basically literally, "the low countries", per this explanation.
If it helps, Ukraine translates to 'border' so there was very much a sense of wanting to keep the idea that it's The Borderlands, and whose borderlands? Well.
posted by cendawanita at 9:43 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
A few comments got deleted responding to something similar (well, not as thoroughly written, merely a list of countries with no commentary), but I liked Meatbomb's point that those referred to types of government.
With regards to v vs na, my Russian is extremely rudimentary (i took it up on duolingo only from 2019 onwards), but one thing to note is that Russian and the other Slavic languages don't have definite articles ('the'; 'a') the way English does, so to begin with it's already an interpretation-as-translation issue, and arguably then an artifact of the English at the time of translation. Several other countries such as in the Carribean still has The in front of their names, and they're very much still British crown colonies or independent-but-with-the-monarch-as-the-head-of-state, which I feel supports this, but I could be wrong too.
Following my comment along those lines, a question was somewhat asked by a comment that merely listed out The Netherlands, but I believe it's related to Dutch being more like English in having definite articles, and it's basically literally, "the low countries", per this explanation.
If it helps, Ukraine translates to 'border' so there was very much a sense of wanting to keep the idea that it's The Borderlands, and whose borderlands? Well.
posted by cendawanita at 9:43 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
> FT article is paywalled.
Just a quick note that Bypass Paywalls Clean browser extension (for both Firefox and Chrome) works with FT and many other popular and not-so-popular websites. I find it much more convenient than having to bounce through archive.org or other similar tools.
(Hopefully that's relevant enough to stay, in that it can help people more easily access content under discussion here.)
posted by jammer at 9:48 AM on April 10, 2022 [13 favorites]
Just a quick note that Bypass Paywalls Clean browser extension (for both Firefox and Chrome) works with FT and many other popular and not-so-popular websites. I find it much more convenient than having to bounce through archive.org or other similar tools.
(Hopefully that's relevant enough to stay, in that it can help people more easily access content under discussion here.)
posted by jammer at 9:48 AM on April 10, 2022 [13 favorites]
So, I think, if people really want to discuss complicated translation issues, including why Ukraine wants to be just “Ukraine” without the “the,” someone should put together an FPP on the issue. I’d probably have something’s to say that don’t belong in this thread, which should remain focus on news from Ukraine.
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:15 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:15 AM on April 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Since using the edit would be inappropriate:
Another reminder that many MeFites are very much affected by this, that many of them are dealing with anxiety and stress, so ask yourself before hitting “Post comment” if your comment will further the discussion and if it will cause more stress and/or anxiety. Derails, no matter how fascinating, and jokes, no matter how funny, probably won’t clear either of those hurdles.
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:20 AM on April 10, 2022 [20 favorites]
Another reminder that many MeFites are very much affected by this, that many of them are dealing with anxiety and stress, so ask yourself before hitting “Post comment” if your comment will further the discussion and if it will cause more stress and/or anxiety. Derails, no matter how fascinating, and jokes, no matter how funny, probably won’t clear either of those hurdles.
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:20 AM on April 10, 2022 [20 favorites]
The Russian general appointed by Vladimir Putin to lead efforts to reboot the invasion of Ukraine played a prominent role in the Syrian war, where forces under his command were responsible for widespread abuses against the civilian population and were frequently accused of committing crimes against humanity.
Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov, 60, has been described as an “old school” general and a “blood and soil nationalist”, trained in Soviet military doctrines that view obliterating civilian targets as a means of gaining battlefield momentum.
posted by adamvasco at 12:02 PM on April 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov, 60, has been described as an “old school” general and a “blood and soil nationalist”, trained in Soviet military doctrines that view obliterating civilian targets as a means of gaining battlefield momentum.
posted by adamvasco at 12:02 PM on April 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
All the alarmism about the Red Forest stuff is very overblown, however.
Agreed — but if I were a Ukrainian worker at Chornobyl, I would be talking very loudly about rads and exposures and whatnot while keeping very quiet about the difference between gamma and alpha radiation.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 12:09 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Agreed — but if I were a Ukrainian worker at Chornobyl, I would be talking very loudly about rads and exposures and whatnot while keeping very quiet about the difference between gamma and alpha radiation.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 12:09 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Agreed — but if I were a Ukrainian worker at Chornobyl, I would be talking very loudly about rads and exposures and whatnot while keeping very quiet about the difference between gamma and alpha radiation.
If they've been digging dirt, sleeping in dirt, eating dirt, then they've been inhaling alpha emitters at which point there is little difference in effective dose. The exclusion zone is safe to drive through specifically because one isn't snorting lines of its dirt off a mirror.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:13 PM on April 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
If they've been digging dirt, sleeping in dirt, eating dirt, then they've been inhaling alpha emitters at which point there is little difference in effective dose. The exclusion zone is safe to drive through specifically because one isn't snorting lines of its dirt off a mirror.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:13 PM on April 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
I’m with you — but my point is I wouldn’t be wasting time educating Russian soldiers on the nuances of the various types of radiation exposures. The only thing I’d want them to learn is radiation=bad.
Let their imaginations fill in the rest.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 12:26 PM on April 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Let their imaginations fill in the rest.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 12:26 PM on April 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
After reading too much about Bucha and other towns north of Kyiv, I decided to take it lightly for a few days. But I’ve kept reading Yevgenia Belorusets’ war diary, which has come to an end as she’s left the city by train. I’m just glad she could do it by choice. The last actual entry (there’s a kind of epilogue too) has stuck with me, especially the last few paragraphs:
In Kyiv of late, everyday life seemed confined to a hiding place. Real life sheltered behind courtyard gates and the doors of volunteer centers, in hospitals, bunkers, and apartments.posted by Kattullus at 2:20 PM on April 10, 2022 [41 favorites]
Gripped by waves of hope and despair for weeks on end, many Kyiv residents wavered between grief for their injured or deceased friends, and an almost feverish preoccupation with the acute necessities of war. At the same time, many had no idea that in Bucha, Irpin, Vorzel, and Borodyanka, something unspeakable was happening. We lived in a torn cocoon of grief, news constantly arriving through the cracks. I met refugees from Bucha and from Irpin, and they told me their stories, but the whole picture remained blurry and unimaginable until the last few days.
When I started this diary, I was convinced that I would keep it up for only a day or two. My faith in the impossibility of such a senseless war was strong. Now I travel onward, moving kilometers farther from the ongoing violence, while looking out the window of the train at another country’s sprawling landscape—and suddenly find myself fearing for this place as well.
The surroundings of Kyiv, a solemn, beautiful landscape where I once dreamed of having a small house, transform before our eyes into a giant memorial. Russia publishes manifestos in the state media to justify the mass murder of us all. The world considers what to do next. Some international experts play soothsayers and suggest that the war may last for years. In this manner, it seems to me, mass murder is indirectly legitimized. Every day of this war is one too many.
The ZSU managed to hit an ammo depot in Russian occupied Novoaydar.
Severodonetsk being the other major target after Mariupol and it looks like the Ukrainians are determined to not let it fall.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:19 PM on April 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Severodonetsk being the other major target after Mariupol and it looks like the Ukrainians are determined to not let it fall.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:19 PM on April 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Obituary: Oleksander Mykolayovych Rzhavsky
They shot him over vodka. I just called them soldiers, they're not that. That connotes discipline and mission and code. These are thugs, just criminals. Murderers. This guy thought they were on his side, he didn't understand, they're not real soldiers. They're just a bunch of drunk goons.
Let this be a warning to anyone else that thinks the face-eating leopards are on their side.
posted by adept256 at 4:42 PM on April 10, 2022 [43 favorites]
Oleksander Mykolayovych Rzhavsky was a candidate in the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, nominated by the "United Family" Party, of which he is the head. Businesman, pro-Russian politicianHe was about as pro-Russia as they come. It turns out Russian soldiers aren't the best house guests. When he refused to pour the vodka, they shot him.
Presidential candidate in 1999, when he won 0.37% of the votes, and finished in 9th place. He was vice-chair of the board of Montazhspetsbank in 1996–97, and president of Koral Bank in 1997–98. In his program, he promised to establish order in Ukraine, using the methods of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Killed in Bucha, near Kiiv, by Russians, when refused to bring more alchocole for Russian invaders who looted his house.
Oleg Torgalo, a businessman, Ayurvedic doctor and chairman of the Ukraine-India Society, said on Facebook that Alexander Rzhavsky stopped communicating after March 4, when the fighting for Bucha escalated and the city was occupied. On April 4, Torgalo was able to communicate with his daughter. She said that during the occupation, her father was twice kidnapped as the owner of a large estate, demanding a ransom, and both times he managed to free himself without money. They were robbed, their phones, a collection of weapons were taken away.
On April 27(sic) (03/27/2022?), the Muscovites had a drinking party at their house. And when the father made a remark to them and refused to give vodka once again, he was shot right in the house.
They shot him over vodka. I just called them soldiers, they're not that. That connotes discipline and mission and code. These are thugs, just criminals. Murderers. This guy thought they were on his side, he didn't understand, they're not real soldiers. They're just a bunch of drunk goons.
Let this be a warning to anyone else that thinks the face-eating leopards are on their side.
posted by adept256 at 4:42 PM on April 10, 2022 [43 favorites]
The archaism “soldiery” (meaning an armed rabble loosely under command) may be more appropriate than its more modern form.
posted by acb at 4:50 PM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 4:50 PM on April 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Some articles, with the last one articulating the dynamic we've been seeing in the 1420 voxpops:
Stephen Kotkin: The Cold War Never Ended
Now flash forward. A despot in the Kremlin has once again authorized an invasion of yet another small country, expecting it to be quickly overrun. He has been expounding about how the West is in decline and imagines that although the decadent Americans and their stooges might whine, none of them will come to the aid of a small, weak country. But the despot has miscalculated. Encased in an echo chamber, surrounded by sycophants, he has based his strategic calculations on his own propaganda. The West, far from shrinking from the fight, rallies, with the United States decisively in the lead.
The year was 1950. Stalin was still in power, but this time, the small country in question was South Korea, invaded by North Korean forces after he gave the despot in Pyongyang, Kim Il Sung, a green light. To Stalin’s surprise, the United States formed an international military coalition, supported by a UN resolution; the Soviets, boycotting the UN Security Council, had failed to exercise their veto. UN forces landed on the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula and drove the North Koreans all the way to the Chinese border. Stalin, aided by Washington’s failure to heed its own intelligent reports, effectively managed to shunt his blunder onto the Chinese leader Mao Zedong. China’s People’s Liberation Army intervened in huge numbers, surprising the U.S. commander, and drove the U.S.-led coalition back to the line that had divided the North and the South before the North’s aggression, resulting in a costly stalemate.
And now to the present. Stalin and the Soviet Union are long gone, of course. In their place are Vladimir Putin, a far lesser despot, and Russia, a second-rank, albeit still dangerous, power, which inherited the Soviet Union’s doomsday arsenal, UN veto, and animus toward the West. In February, when Putin chose to invade Ukraine, dismissing its sovereignty and disparaging the country as a pawn in the hands of Russia’s enemies, he was expecting an international response like the one Stalin witnessed when invading Finland in 1939: noise from the sidelines, disunity, inaction. So far, however, the war in Ukraine has engendered something closer to what happened in South Korea in 1950—although this time, the Europeans were ahead of the Americans. Putin’s aggression—and, crucially, the heroism and ingenuity of the Ukrainian people, soldiers and civilians alike, and the resolve and savvy demonstrated by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky—spurred a dormant West to action. The Ukrainians, like the Finns, have kept their honor. But this time, so has the West.
What these parallels show is not that history repeats itself or rhymes; the point, rather, is that the history made in those earlier eras is still being made today. Eternal Russian imperialism leaps out as the easiest explanation, as if there were some sort of innate cultural proclivity toward aggression. There is not. Conversely, however, it would also be simplistic to see Russia’s invasion as a mere reaction to Western imperialism, whether in the form of NATO or its expansion, when the pattern long predates NATO.
These recurring episodes of Russian aggression, for all their differences, reflect the same geopolitical trap, one that Russian rulers have set for themselves again and again. Many Russians view their country as a providential power, with a distinct civilization and a special mission in the world, but Russia’s capabilities do not match its aspirations, and so its rulers resort, time and again, to a hyperconcentration of power in the state in a coercive effort to close the yawning gap with the West. But the drive for a strong state does not work, invariably devolving into personalist rule. The combination of weakness and grandeur, in turn, drives the autocrat to exacerbate the very problem that facilitated his appearance. After 1991, when the gap with the West widened radically, Russia’s perpetual geopolitics endured, as I argued in these pages in 2016. It will persist until Russian rulers make the strategic choice to abandon the impossible quest to become a great-power equal of the West and choose instead to live alongside it and focus on Russia’s internal development.
Politico: Putin Is the Only Leader They’ve Known. And They’re Done With Him.
NY Mag: ‘Russia Is Completely Depoliticized’ A sociologist from Moscow explains how the nation learned to deny reality.
Q: What should Americans understand about the political climate in Russia right now?
A: The most important thing to keep in mind is that Russia is a completely depoliticized country. People generally don’t want to have anything in common with politics. There is an incredible contempt and disdain for all kinds of politics just because Russians are completely certain that there is no possible way to change anything through politics, that no change is possible in general. So for that reason, people prefer to lead their private lives. They have opportunities to do that because most of them are better off under Putin. Any kind of political activity is all just complete nonsense to a vast majority of Russians. If you believe in extraterrestrials, that’s at least interesting. If you are into politics, you’re silly. Particularly for people in business, that’s a complete no go. I always say the best way to spoil the party is to start talking about politics in Russia. You will never be invited again.
Against this background, I think it might become a little bit easier to understand the perception of what is going on. The vast majority is either in denial of what is going on in Ukraine or assume this attitude of passive support that the narrative produced by the state is enough for them to keep leading their everyday lives. This narrative tells them, This is not particularly serious, everything’s under control. It was necessary because it was a threat, and a threat means, of course, the destruction of everyday lives, and we don’t want that. You have people who are militarized and amplified by the state media. On the other hand, you have people who are vehemently against the war, protesting. But in the middle, you have the vast majority, which is still in denial and trying to stick to those stories because it brings reconciliation.
There’s what I call the “few months” theory. People keep believing that in two or three months, all the sanctions will be lifted, the war will be over, and Ukrainians will be, of course, happy with being part of Russia.
Q: Depoliticization to this degree doesn’t happen overnight. Can you tell me a little bit more about its roots?
I think there are several factors to it. One of them is, of course, the late Soviet Union, where it was an endless swamp and there was a kind of specific atomization of life. The second factor was radical market reform in the 1990s. It was brutal. It completely destroyed the ways of life people were used to. It was very traumatic for many people because they kind of learned that there are no friends. You have to fight all the time. So that was like an unchained market where, basically, there’s a war of all against all.
And then comes Putin. There was already a lot of disenchantment by the end of the ’90s that was not used strategically, but he turned it into a strategic weapon. His media was constantly trying to depoliticize people even further. It is precisely under Putin that this disdain for politics took shape. This is how his system worked for quite a long time because everyone knows that Putin and his party always win the elections. But very few people know how they do it, technically. Turnout is very low because people are persuaded that it makes more sense to tune out at the elections.
Elections are a masquerade. They were flooded with all kinds of ideas just to create repulsion toward politics. You had all kinds of porn stars, like complete kooks. And that, of course, created the impression that you shouldn’t show up. Then you have like 20 percent turnout, with 15 percent of those mobilized for your party. And that gives you 75 percent of support. And then nobody, of course, cares about looking at the turnout numbers. You have this perception that there is a vast majority for the president or for the ruling party.
The TV show House was actually incredibly popular in Russia precisely because the motto is “Everyone lies.” This is so to the point with what Russians feel. Everyone lies. There’s no truth at all. It’s endless relativism. And the media was saying all the time that you should never trust anyone, including the media, of course. That destroys any kind of social bond between people.
Sociologists have this tool, asking, “Do you think that people, in general, can be trusted?” Russia has very high levels of distrust. I’ve seen it as a sociologist. Often people don’t even understand the question — “How on earth can you trust people?” You can trust dogs, cats, but with people, this is impossible. I’m sure it was strategic for Putin to depoliticize the country and to trade relative economic prosperity for complete civic disengagement.
My commentary: here's where i think most of those reading and participating in this thread don't fully grok about the world outside the nominal West, but I can only speak about most of Asia. Much of our democratic institutions are plain theatre, especially here in Southeast Asia. Even Singapore, who joined in the official array of sanctions, the feeling on the ground is extremely mixed, to put it mildly because we don't actually trust governments to be that truthful while at the same time we're very used to state power making things 'true' (eventually).
posted by cendawanita at 6:09 PM on April 10, 2022 [48 favorites]
Stephen Kotkin: The Cold War Never Ended
Now flash forward. A despot in the Kremlin has once again authorized an invasion of yet another small country, expecting it to be quickly overrun. He has been expounding about how the West is in decline and imagines that although the decadent Americans and their stooges might whine, none of them will come to the aid of a small, weak country. But the despot has miscalculated. Encased in an echo chamber, surrounded by sycophants, he has based his strategic calculations on his own propaganda. The West, far from shrinking from the fight, rallies, with the United States decisively in the lead.
The year was 1950. Stalin was still in power, but this time, the small country in question was South Korea, invaded by North Korean forces after he gave the despot in Pyongyang, Kim Il Sung, a green light. To Stalin’s surprise, the United States formed an international military coalition, supported by a UN resolution; the Soviets, boycotting the UN Security Council, had failed to exercise their veto. UN forces landed on the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula and drove the North Koreans all the way to the Chinese border. Stalin, aided by Washington’s failure to heed its own intelligent reports, effectively managed to shunt his blunder onto the Chinese leader Mao Zedong. China’s People’s Liberation Army intervened in huge numbers, surprising the U.S. commander, and drove the U.S.-led coalition back to the line that had divided the North and the South before the North’s aggression, resulting in a costly stalemate.
And now to the present. Stalin and the Soviet Union are long gone, of course. In their place are Vladimir Putin, a far lesser despot, and Russia, a second-rank, albeit still dangerous, power, which inherited the Soviet Union’s doomsday arsenal, UN veto, and animus toward the West. In February, when Putin chose to invade Ukraine, dismissing its sovereignty and disparaging the country as a pawn in the hands of Russia’s enemies, he was expecting an international response like the one Stalin witnessed when invading Finland in 1939: noise from the sidelines, disunity, inaction. So far, however, the war in Ukraine has engendered something closer to what happened in South Korea in 1950—although this time, the Europeans were ahead of the Americans. Putin’s aggression—and, crucially, the heroism and ingenuity of the Ukrainian people, soldiers and civilians alike, and the resolve and savvy demonstrated by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky—spurred a dormant West to action. The Ukrainians, like the Finns, have kept their honor. But this time, so has the West.
What these parallels show is not that history repeats itself or rhymes; the point, rather, is that the history made in those earlier eras is still being made today. Eternal Russian imperialism leaps out as the easiest explanation, as if there were some sort of innate cultural proclivity toward aggression. There is not. Conversely, however, it would also be simplistic to see Russia’s invasion as a mere reaction to Western imperialism, whether in the form of NATO or its expansion, when the pattern long predates NATO.
These recurring episodes of Russian aggression, for all their differences, reflect the same geopolitical trap, one that Russian rulers have set for themselves again and again. Many Russians view their country as a providential power, with a distinct civilization and a special mission in the world, but Russia’s capabilities do not match its aspirations, and so its rulers resort, time and again, to a hyperconcentration of power in the state in a coercive effort to close the yawning gap with the West. But the drive for a strong state does not work, invariably devolving into personalist rule. The combination of weakness and grandeur, in turn, drives the autocrat to exacerbate the very problem that facilitated his appearance. After 1991, when the gap with the West widened radically, Russia’s perpetual geopolitics endured, as I argued in these pages in 2016. It will persist until Russian rulers make the strategic choice to abandon the impossible quest to become a great-power equal of the West and choose instead to live alongside it and focus on Russia’s internal development.
Politico: Putin Is the Only Leader They’ve Known. And They’re Done With Him.
NY Mag: ‘Russia Is Completely Depoliticized’ A sociologist from Moscow explains how the nation learned to deny reality.
Q: What should Americans understand about the political climate in Russia right now?
A: The most important thing to keep in mind is that Russia is a completely depoliticized country. People generally don’t want to have anything in common with politics. There is an incredible contempt and disdain for all kinds of politics just because Russians are completely certain that there is no possible way to change anything through politics, that no change is possible in general. So for that reason, people prefer to lead their private lives. They have opportunities to do that because most of them are better off under Putin. Any kind of political activity is all just complete nonsense to a vast majority of Russians. If you believe in extraterrestrials, that’s at least interesting. If you are into politics, you’re silly. Particularly for people in business, that’s a complete no go. I always say the best way to spoil the party is to start talking about politics in Russia. You will never be invited again.
Against this background, I think it might become a little bit easier to understand the perception of what is going on. The vast majority is either in denial of what is going on in Ukraine or assume this attitude of passive support that the narrative produced by the state is enough for them to keep leading their everyday lives. This narrative tells them, This is not particularly serious, everything’s under control. It was necessary because it was a threat, and a threat means, of course, the destruction of everyday lives, and we don’t want that. You have people who are militarized and amplified by the state media. On the other hand, you have people who are vehemently against the war, protesting. But in the middle, you have the vast majority, which is still in denial and trying to stick to those stories because it brings reconciliation.
There’s what I call the “few months” theory. People keep believing that in two or three months, all the sanctions will be lifted, the war will be over, and Ukrainians will be, of course, happy with being part of Russia.
Q: Depoliticization to this degree doesn’t happen overnight. Can you tell me a little bit more about its roots?
I think there are several factors to it. One of them is, of course, the late Soviet Union, where it was an endless swamp and there was a kind of specific atomization of life. The second factor was radical market reform in the 1990s. It was brutal. It completely destroyed the ways of life people were used to. It was very traumatic for many people because they kind of learned that there are no friends. You have to fight all the time. So that was like an unchained market where, basically, there’s a war of all against all.
And then comes Putin. There was already a lot of disenchantment by the end of the ’90s that was not used strategically, but he turned it into a strategic weapon. His media was constantly trying to depoliticize people even further. It is precisely under Putin that this disdain for politics took shape. This is how his system worked for quite a long time because everyone knows that Putin and his party always win the elections. But very few people know how they do it, technically. Turnout is very low because people are persuaded that it makes more sense to tune out at the elections.
Elections are a masquerade. They were flooded with all kinds of ideas just to create repulsion toward politics. You had all kinds of porn stars, like complete kooks. And that, of course, created the impression that you shouldn’t show up. Then you have like 20 percent turnout, with 15 percent of those mobilized for your party. And that gives you 75 percent of support. And then nobody, of course, cares about looking at the turnout numbers. You have this perception that there is a vast majority for the president or for the ruling party.
The TV show House was actually incredibly popular in Russia precisely because the motto is “Everyone lies.” This is so to the point with what Russians feel. Everyone lies. There’s no truth at all. It’s endless relativism. And the media was saying all the time that you should never trust anyone, including the media, of course. That destroys any kind of social bond between people.
Sociologists have this tool, asking, “Do you think that people, in general, can be trusted?” Russia has very high levels of distrust. I’ve seen it as a sociologist. Often people don’t even understand the question — “How on earth can you trust people?” You can trust dogs, cats, but with people, this is impossible. I’m sure it was strategic for Putin to depoliticize the country and to trade relative economic prosperity for complete civic disengagement.
My commentary: here's where i think most of those reading and participating in this thread don't fully grok about the world outside the nominal West, but I can only speak about most of Asia. Much of our democratic institutions are plain theatre, especially here in Southeast Asia. Even Singapore, who joined in the official array of sanctions, the feeling on the ground is extremely mixed, to put it mildly because we don't actually trust governments to be that truthful while at the same time we're very used to state power making things 'true' (eventually).
posted by cendawanita at 6:09 PM on April 10, 2022 [48 favorites]
Ukrainian erasure.
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
⚡️ Denisova: Kremlin forces Ukrainians deported to Russia to receive local passports.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:22 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Some 12,000 passports have already been issued. “It’s contrary to the international law and is a direct violation of the Geneva Convention,” Ombudsman Lyudmyla Denisova said.
with everything that's occuring i don't even know what questions make sense to ask anymore. like, philosophically, what is to be done when a nation-state completely rejects the universal order of everything, the entire framework of literal civilization. metaphor fails me and i fear the answers of history too much to ponder very hard about it.
posted by glonous keming at 7:00 PM on April 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 7:00 PM on April 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
Ukraine claims to have destroyed a huge Russian column of armored vehicles and soldiers that were headed towards the Kharkiv region. Early reports say that as many as 2000 Russian soldiers may have been killed.
posted by interogative mood at 7:31 PM on April 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:31 PM on April 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
like, philosophically, what is to be done when a nation-state completely rejects the universal order of everything, the entire framework of literal civilization.
If we're lucky, the state in question becomes North Korea. If we're unlucky, World War II.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:32 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
If we're lucky, the state in question becomes North Korea. If we're unlucky, World War II.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:32 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
III
posted by sammyo at 8:20 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 8:20 PM on April 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Politico: War crimes were part of Russia's master plan, national security adviser says
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday that the war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine were part of President Vladimir Putin’s master plan for the invasion.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:33 PM on April 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
“We, in fact, before the war began declassified intelligence and presented it,” Sullivan said on ABC’s 'This Week' “indicating that there was a plan from the highest levels of the Russian government to target civilians who oppose the invasion, to cause violence against them, to organize efforts to brutalize them in order to try to terrorize the population and subjugate it. So this is something that was planned.”
Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov, 60, has been described as an “old school” general and a “blood and soil nationalist”, trained in Soviet military doctrines that view obliterating civilian targets as a means of gaining battlefield momentum.
The Dutch newspaper NRC doesn't quite mince its words either:
'Bomb-thrower' Dvornikov will oversee Russia's operation in Ukraine
Russia is changing its strategy in Ukraine. To do so, it is bringing in a general with a long but questionable track record. "Dvornikov has extensive experience in committing heinous genocidal crimes."
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Dutch newspaper NRC doesn't quite mince its words either:
'Bomb-thrower' Dvornikov will oversee Russia's operation in Ukraine
Russia is changing its strategy in Ukraine. To do so, it is bringing in a general with a long but questionable track record. "Dvornikov has extensive experience in committing heinous genocidal crimes."
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
I haven’t seen much from academic sources about the probable Russian war aims, as revised after their defeat north of Kyiv. However, Twitter user Jomini of the West, who’s done good work making strategic maps of the conflict, lays out what seems to my very amateur eye, to be a reasonable best guess of what Russia now seeks to do, and how Ukrainian war aims play into it. Here’s the Twitter thread.
posted by Kattullus at 1:07 AM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 1:07 AM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's some more adjacency fallout from where I am living: Tajikistan authorities dither as remittance plunge looms - The president has given no indication he has a plan, other than to instruct the public to stockpile two years’ worth of food.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:44 AM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 2:44 AM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
And if I was not right here in the middle of it it would be laugh out loud hilarious. The money quote in that article "One [plan for economic relief] was a moratorium on government inspections on businesses until the end of 2022."
But wait, how would that help the economy you ask? The subtext, that every Tajik absolutely understands, is "for the next few months the government organs will not skim bribes from businesses"... but my wife says that will not work, and it will not happen. All of those government parasites also have families to feed, how will they live without skimming bribes?
posted by Meatbomb at 2:53 AM on April 11, 2022 [28 favorites]
But wait, how would that help the economy you ask? The subtext, that every Tajik absolutely understands, is "for the next few months the government organs will not skim bribes from businesses"... but my wife says that will not work, and it will not happen. All of those government parasites also have families to feed, how will they live without skimming bribes?
posted by Meatbomb at 2:53 AM on April 11, 2022 [28 favorites]
Ukrainian farmers are starting field work in helmets and armoured vests. The fields have to be checked for mines first.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:14 AM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:14 AM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
All of those government parasites also have families to feed, how will they live without skimming bribes?
This. Stability in an autocracy comes from everyone being able to get their plunder. Once you stop distributing treasure you’re liable for someone to overthrow you on the promise of restoring the flow of said treasure.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:30 AM on April 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
This. Stability in an autocracy comes from everyone being able to get their plunder. Once you stop distributing treasure you’re liable for someone to overthrow you on the promise of restoring the flow of said treasure.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:30 AM on April 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
That's what impresses me the most about the moves in Kazakhstan. They have the same autocratic plunder funnel, but they know that the present system is unsustainable without effective Russian backing. So they can either start on the seriously hard work of building a better and more democratic system, or they can invite China, and they started on the former choice, knowing they'll be interfered with, maliciously, at every step.
posted by ocschwar at 7:58 AM on April 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:58 AM on April 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
Rheinmetall ready to supply up to 50 tanks to Ukraine - newspaper
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:07 AM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
BERLIN, April 11 (Reuters) - Military equipment maker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) is preparing to supply up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Monday, citing the group's CEO.They believe skilled personnel could be trained up in days.
Rheinmetall could deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if it gets a green light from the German government, Chief Executive Armin Papperger told Handelsblatt.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:07 AM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
A TLDR of the Tweet-storm analysis by Jomini of the West that Kattullus' shared above, without the geopolitical prefaces, for those who hate trying to derive complex thoughts from twitter threads:
The suggested main axis of the next Russian operation will be a generally southerly thrust from Izium to Donetsk, with the intention of encircling a bulk of the Ukrainian forces within the Lisichansk salient and controlling the Donbas. There is likely to be a secondary effort in the Kherson area to hold and expand the controlled area of the Black Sea, in pursuit of more favorable negotiating positions. Disrupting actions expected around Kyiv and Karkhiv, but no major force movement.
Which, I mean, is basically the condensation of the latest ISW campaign assessment, and seems logical enough. The alternative to trying to cut off the salient would be a broad frontal assault along the Donetsk front. I don't have enough insight myself to say which is more likely, and ISW doesn't seem to want to make such a call, either.
But, you know, armchair generals, and all that.
posted by jammer at 8:08 AM on April 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
The suggested main axis of the next Russian operation will be a generally southerly thrust from Izium to Donetsk, with the intention of encircling a bulk of the Ukrainian forces within the Lisichansk salient and controlling the Donbas. There is likely to be a secondary effort in the Kherson area to hold and expand the controlled area of the Black Sea, in pursuit of more favorable negotiating positions. Disrupting actions expected around Kyiv and Karkhiv, but no major force movement.
Which, I mean, is basically the condensation of the latest ISW campaign assessment, and seems logical enough. The alternative to trying to cut off the salient would be a broad frontal assault along the Donetsk front. I don't have enough insight myself to say which is more likely, and ISW doesn't seem to want to make such a call, either.
But, you know, armchair generals, and all that.
posted by jammer at 8:08 AM on April 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
(The one additional note I'll add about whether a frontal assault or a pincing maneuver is more likely is that US intelligence sources have been suggesting that a broad "World War 2"-style offensive is expected, which would tend to hint towards a more blunt assault. US (and UK) intelligence has been pretty spot-on about Russian intent through this whole thing, so that lends a little more credence to that possibility. But one could easily describe a large-enough flanking maneuver the same, and just because Intelligence is saying something doesn't mean they actually believe it, so who knows?)
posted by jammer at 8:13 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jammer at 8:13 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
An open question is what did Dvornikov learn from the Feb 2018 incident in Northern Syria and will that affect his tactics and strategy. In Feb 2018 the Russians designed an operation to massacre a bunch of US marines and blame ISIS. The hope would he this would create a Blackhawk down scenario and the US would pull back from its mission helping Kurds in Northern Syria defend against Islamic State.
The Russians sent over 500 Wagner group mercenaries in tanks and heavy artillery to attack a small outpost of 40 US Marines. This is the standard Russian plan of attack, flatten everything with artillery and then send in tanks and infantry to cleanup.
When the US soldiers started taking fire from the Russian artillery, they called command, who called the Russians, who denied that they were involved. So then the Marines were ordered to engage and proceeded to unleash javalin missiles and switchblade drones on the Russians. 4 hours later after intense fighting all 40 Marines were alive and without significant injury. There were several hundred dead Russians and a lot of destroyed Russian equipment, and of course questions.
posted by interogative mood at 9:53 AM on April 11, 2022 [34 favorites]
The Russians sent over 500 Wagner group mercenaries in tanks and heavy artillery to attack a small outpost of 40 US Marines. This is the standard Russian plan of attack, flatten everything with artillery and then send in tanks and infantry to cleanup.
When the US soldiers started taking fire from the Russian artillery, they called command, who called the Russians, who denied that they were involved. So then the Marines were ordered to engage and proceeded to unleash javalin missiles and switchblade drones on the Russians. 4 hours later after intense fighting all 40 Marines were alive and without significant injury. There were several hundred dead Russians and a lot of destroyed Russian equipment, and of course questions.
posted by interogative mood at 9:53 AM on April 11, 2022 [34 favorites]
Long thread by VOA's Jeff Seldin on Twitter
Selections:
Selections:
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:16 AM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
"No evidence" to back up Russia's claims it destroyed a #S300 missile defense system, per official
#Mariupol - "This is a city that continues to be under siege" per a senior US defense official "It has not been taken by the Russians"
#Russia has just under half dozen ships in #SeaofAzov to replenish forces attacking Mariupol, per official
No plans to bring more #Ukraine troops to US for training, per a senior US defense official
Group of troops that just returned - to whom @SecDef spoke Sunday - had been in the US since Nov-Dec 2021
US expects no let-up in #Russia|n "depravity & brutality" in #Ukraine
There is a photo after the destruction of Borodyanka, of a stubborn cupboard, that has become a popular meme. You may have also seen this delightful image from Boris Johnson's Kyiv trip. But wait, there's a story there.
posted by droomoord at 10:20 AM on April 11, 2022 [25 favorites]
posted by droomoord at 10:20 AM on April 11, 2022 [25 favorites]
I want to know what those dishes are made out of.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:23 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:23 AM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
From CNN (also, I have no idea what this means specifically in terms of the war): Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, credit ratings agency S&P has said. Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4, S&P said in a note on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a "selective default" because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into "dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts."
posted by Bella Donna at 10:32 AM on April 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 10:32 AM on April 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
"We will sue, because we undertook all necessary action so that investors would receive their payments," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper [...] He did not say who Russia planned to sue.That should be an interesting law suit. "Judge we ask the court to force the holders of this debt not denominated in rubles to accept rubles instead because
posted by Mitheral at 12:16 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
Lol and in what court
posted by bq at 12:23 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by bq at 12:23 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
A Ukrainian engineer has provided a tear down video of a captured Russian done. This is an Orlan-10 one of Russia's latest and greatest drones. The camera is just an off the shelf Cannon DSLR. The fuel tank is a plastic water bottle with some plastic tubing going through a tube in the top.
A supposed transcript from Reddit:
A supposed transcript from Reddit:
Title: Bottle inside a Russian "Orlan-10" army drone.posted by interogative mood at 12:35 PM on April 11, 2022 [30 favorites]
0:01 … We've gathered a number of downed Russian drones for study. We wanted to share examples of the "space age" engineering with our Western partners, but as soon as we've sent a couple of photos they went into a system shock. "Are you f-n kidding us?" they said. "This could not possibly be modern army technology. Dig through this garbage yourselves." And here we are…
0:20 Let's take a look at the "Orlan-10" drone and check out some of those "super up to date" technical solutions, held together by the notorious "spiritual bonds" so dear to every Russian soul. (cynical)
0:30 Perhaps we'll be able to spy on some technological tricks we can later teach in our middle-school hobby workshops. (cynical)
0:44 Let's begin. This is drone's camera unit. The front plate proudly states, "Made in Russia." But in the back is a "Canon" camera … fastened with Velcro!
1:00 The best feature -- you can unfasten the "Canon" and use it to take selfies.
1:08 The camera (being Japanese) is in perfect working order (even after downing of the drone).
1:10 Take a look, Russians engineers have super-glued the mode-dial, so the camera does not accidentally turn off in flight. The zoom is also fixed. The bottom two lenses are thermal-vision modules.
1:24 There's a plethora of other curious technical solutions which I shall not waste your time on, because I want to show you the most important part -- the notorious "spiritual bond" no modern Russian technology exists without …
1:38 … THE BOTTLE !
1:41 I am not pulling your leg, and this is not a fake. This here says, "Fuel tank," and here "Ignition". And this is a plastic screw cap and a common soda bottle, riveted in here.
2:05 In short, "Without a bottle the Russia can't be Russia."
...so if there had been drones while the USSR was a thing, this would have been exactly the Soviet Drone joke.
(Mineral water bottle, not soda, if I understood correctly.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
(Mineral water bottle, not soda, if I understood correctly.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Previous teardown of an Orlan recovered in 2018.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:53 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:53 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Last marines defending Mariupol ‘running out of ammunition’
The 36th brigade say they face ‘death for some of us, and captivity for the rest’ as Russian offensive continues.
posted by adamvasco at 1:02 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
The 36th brigade say they face ‘death for some of us, and captivity for the rest’ as Russian offensive continues.
posted by adamvasco at 1:02 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
On one hand, the drone looks like a joke, with its duct tape, Velcro, and glue. OTOH, it shows the versatility of off-the-shelf consumer products. If some Ukrainian was building them in their basement, they'd be a hero.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 1:03 PM on April 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 1:03 PM on April 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
A PET soda bottle is just about perfect for a drone fuel tank. It's legit hard to make something lighter and stronger.
posted by ryanrs at 1:06 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 1:06 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
(I mean, that's how I would do it if I was cobbling together a drone by myself. But then I don't generally present myself as a NATO peer.)
posted by ryanrs at 1:09 PM on April 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 1:09 PM on April 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
They should check those cameras pretty carefully before they pass them around to the soldiers. There could be any kind of tracking in there.
posted by bink at 1:15 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by bink at 1:15 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Center for European Policy Analysis' Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 on Twitter
There are reports that Russian war criminals dumped poisonous substance on Mariupol "About an hour ago the Russian occupation forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against Ukrainian military and civilians in the city of Mariupol, which was dropped from an enemy UAV”posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:20 PM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
It is reported that the victims have respiratory failure, vestibulo-atactic syndrome. Source: https://pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/11/7338922/… Will monitor this closely
We’ve been teaching the Randomlet that the harder cuss words are inappropriate for all but more extreme situations. So far, the only use we’ve approved fuck for was, about six months ago, during a discussion about war, they burst out, “War is fucking stupid!”
That Mariupol report? That is a time for an “Oh fuck…”
posted by Quasirandom at 2:01 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
That Mariupol report? That is a time for an “Oh fuck…”
posted by Quasirandom at 2:01 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
Some mentions that the weather isn't what you'd expect to coincide with a chemical attack, but OTOH the Russian forces haven't exactly been putting on a doctrinal masterclass (or displayed a lot of concern for collateral damage to their own troops).
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:12 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:12 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Keep in mind that after a bombing there is all kinds of dust and debris kicked up in the air and random stuff on fire making fumes from the plastic, rubber, etc chemicals in carpets and furniture. Any of that can also cause the symptoms consistent with a chemical weapons attack.
It is also impossible to verify anything in Mariupol at the moment. It is going to be a long time, if ever before any solid information comes out.
posted by interogative mood at 3:01 PM on April 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
It is also impossible to verify anything in Mariupol at the moment. It is going to be a long time, if ever before any solid information comes out.
posted by interogative mood at 3:01 PM on April 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
Mark Hertling:
I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
posted by adamvasco at 3:55 PM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
posted by adamvasco at 3:55 PM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
A Russian government decree published on a Kremlin website shows Moscow made an emergency order last month to move nearly 100,000 people from the war zone to regions including Siberia, the North Caucasus, the Far East and even the Arctic Circle.
posted by adamvasco at 4:12 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 4:12 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
^ Specifically, other conflict zones.
Destinations where Ukrainians are being sent include the heavily militarised republics of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, where Russia has fought insurgencies, and Sakhalin oblast in the Far East, which contains the Kuril Islands contested by Japan.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:15 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Destinations where Ukrainians are being sent include the heavily militarised republics of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, where Russia has fought insurgencies, and Sakhalin oblast in the Far East, which contains the Kuril Islands contested by Japan.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:15 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
War on the Rocks [4/11/22]: Russia Downscales Its War, But Not in Brutality
Michael Kofman joined Ryan once more to update us all on the war in Ukraine. In this episode, Kofman explains how and why Russia is refocusing on the east of Ukraine, what the war in Syria revealed about shortcomings in Russian air force, and what Ukrainian forces need in terms of weaponry and supply to win this war. The two also discuss Russian war crimes and their relation to the Russian military’s internal culture of violence and hazing as well as Vladimir Putin’s framing of this war of “de-nazification.” The conversation ended with Kofman explaining Moscow’s big military manpower decision, which you may have missed, and how it connects to Putin’s difficult strategic position.posted by snuffleupagus at 4:22 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Soviet Drone joke.
Ukraine Resurrects Soviet-Era Super Drones. 2014.
2022 Zagreb Tu-141 crash
posted by clavdivs at 4:31 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine Resurrects Soviet-Era Super Drones. 2014.
2022 Zagreb Tu-141 crash
posted by clavdivs at 4:31 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
On one hand, the drone looks like a joke, with its duct tape, Velcro, and glue. OTOH, it shows the versatility of off-the-shelf consumer products. If some Ukrainian was building them in their basement, they'd be a hero.
if you're grading on a curve, sure. If an insurgent group somewhere McGyvered together reconnaissance drones from off-the-shelf DSLRs and soft drink bottles, that would be impressive, but for Russia, it's just embarrassing. It doesn't matter that Canon DSLRs are of excellent quality or that PET bottles have optimal material properties for fuel tanks; Russia, a self-proclaimed great power, which inherited the USSR's culture of technology education (i.e., count the various technical universities/institutes there) and military engineering base, should be able to manufacture military-spec optics modules for its aerial vehicles, and it should be a given, rather than a stretch. Perhaps they'd be defence contractors, perhaps wholly-owned Ministry of Defence enterprises, but it doesn't matter.
Of course, the truth is that what was left over (in whatever form) from the Soviet era has been hollowed out, either sold to kleptocratic thugs who cannot and will not responsibly steward any enterprise more complicated than a nickel mine, starved of funds by entire lines of corrupt bureaucrats, or both. As for private defence contractors, as Kamil Galeev pointed out, Russia has effectively no rule of law, so even if some pencilneck with a PhD offered to set up a firm to make military-grade image processing modules, they'd be looted and asset-stripped by some thug whose vision extends only to cracking them open and extracting the profit.
Anyway, the drones. I wonder whether Russia even made the computer components, or just used commodity ARM single-board computers, possibly sourced from rental scooters or something. Also, I wonder if the pi/raspberry login still works on them.
posted by acb at 5:34 PM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
if you're grading on a curve, sure. If an insurgent group somewhere McGyvered together reconnaissance drones from off-the-shelf DSLRs and soft drink bottles, that would be impressive, but for Russia, it's just embarrassing. It doesn't matter that Canon DSLRs are of excellent quality or that PET bottles have optimal material properties for fuel tanks; Russia, a self-proclaimed great power, which inherited the USSR's culture of technology education (i.e., count the various technical universities/institutes there) and military engineering base, should be able to manufacture military-spec optics modules for its aerial vehicles, and it should be a given, rather than a stretch. Perhaps they'd be defence contractors, perhaps wholly-owned Ministry of Defence enterprises, but it doesn't matter.
Of course, the truth is that what was left over (in whatever form) from the Soviet era has been hollowed out, either sold to kleptocratic thugs who cannot and will not responsibly steward any enterprise more complicated than a nickel mine, starved of funds by entire lines of corrupt bureaucrats, or both. As for private defence contractors, as Kamil Galeev pointed out, Russia has effectively no rule of law, so even if some pencilneck with a PhD offered to set up a firm to make military-grade image processing modules, they'd be looted and asset-stripped by some thug whose vision extends only to cracking them open and extracting the profit.
Anyway, the drones. I wonder whether Russia even made the computer components, or just used commodity ARM single-board computers, possibly sourced from rental scooters or something. Also, I wonder if the pi/raspberry login still works on them.
posted by acb at 5:34 PM on April 11, 2022 [20 favorites]
From the Security Service of Ukraine:
Russian soldiers in battlefield conversations via cellphone plus captured Russian soldiers calling home.
And those are the select few with English subtitles.
For those members fluent in Russian, here are the rest.
posted by y2karl at 6:13 PM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russian soldiers in battlefield conversations via cellphone plus captured Russian soldiers calling home.
And those are the select few with English subtitles.
For those members fluent in Russian, here are the rest.
posted by y2karl at 6:13 PM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Lol and in what court
An English one, apparently:
Reuters: Russia threatens legal action if forced into sovereign debt default
Not if they updated recently.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:24 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
An English one, apparently:
Reuters: Russia threatens legal action if forced into sovereign debt default
The bonds in question were issued under English law, which allows a borrower to defend itself by saying that an external force made it impossible to honour obligations, so the court may postpone the payment, said Mitu Gulati, professor of law at the University of Virginia.Also, I wonder if the pi/raspberry login still works on them.
"So I think Russia is going to argue this but ... this is a war ... caused by Russia," said Gulati, also an expert on debt restructuring, adding: "This is not a completely implausible legal argument."
Not if they updated recently.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:24 PM on April 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
they don't get it - the big problem isn't the loans they've taken out - it's the ones they want to take out in the future
posted by pyramid termite at 6:29 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 6:29 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
The bonds in question were issued under English law, which allows a borrower to defend itself by saying that an external force
This is assuredly a reference to force majeure.
A non-performing party may use a force majeure clause as excuse for non-performance for circumstances beyond the party's control and not due to any fault or negligence by the non-performing party.
I don't think you can invoke it if you started said war. At least, not without litigation that will outlast the conflict. The filing of which won't change the recognition of default by the institutions and markets that matter in the meantime.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:49 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
This is assuredly a reference to force majeure.
A non-performing party may use a force majeure clause as excuse for non-performance for circumstances beyond the party's control and not due to any fault or negligence by the non-performing party.
I don't think you can invoke it if you started said war. At least, not without litigation that will outlast the conflict. The filing of which won't change the recognition of default by the institutions and markets that matter in the meantime.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:49 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
"So I think Russia is going to argue this but ... this is a war ... caused by Russia," said Gulati, also an expert on debt restructuring, adding: "This is not a completely implausible legal argument."
This is definitely what I would argue if I were Russia, and it's not completely implausible. But this is going to fall under force majeure ("larger force") rules rather than "Act of God" rules. Force majeure generally refers to man-made problems; Act of God to natural disasters. (There's interesting lines of litigation in common-law countries right now about whether Covid-19 is an Act of God -- epidemics typically have been -- or whether local governments doing a piss-poor job of managing it pushes it to force majeure via bad choices. A tornado is an Act of God, but if your public building wasn't built to code, you're entering the realm of force majeure dumbassery where you manage to make yourself at fault through negligence.) And to dodge a contractual obligation under a force majeure theory requires that you didn't actually cause it through direct action or negligence or malfeasance, and the bad event was not under your control.
So Ukraine plausibly could avoid debt default by pleading force majeure -- they got invaded by a whole other country that just decided to up and invade them with no legal justification under international law. (Similarly, somewhere like Kazakhstan might be able to argue force majeure under a theory like, we had nothing to do with Russia invading Ukraine, but boy did it sure tank our economy since our currency is tied to the ruble, now we cannot pay these bonds because we can't even turn our rubles into a currency you will accept. Might not be persuasive, but it's definitely an argument you'd make.) But Russia probably cannot claim force majeure since INVADING UKRAINE WAS 100% IN THEIR CONTROL and the sanctions were a very predictable outcome of that choice. They're going to argue the sanctions were just a thing the US/EU decided to do that Russia had no control over, therefore, force majeure. That's going to be very difficult to convince an English court of, though, both because the UK is allied with Ukraine in this, and because Russia has been sanctioned for invading Ukrainian territory before, beginning in 2014, so it's tough to argue this was an unanticipated outcome or capricious action by the US or EU (or other sanctioning parties). This was a very expected legal outcome of the invasion.
My parents had been planning a Baltic cruise this summer (originally planned for 2020 and pushed back by Covid), and have been force majeured out of it by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The cruise line is refunding everybody and presumably they are insured for force majeure cancellations, and their insurers are reinsured for it, these are all insurable risks and there's a whole group of insurers who basically reinsure insurance companies against these natural disaster and war risks that could wipe out an individual company or a small insurance company, but your insurer reinsures against their risk of being wiped out by this kind of rare event, which lets them insure companies and individuals against it.
(jinx, snuffleupagus!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:55 PM on April 11, 2022 [22 favorites]
This is definitely what I would argue if I were Russia, and it's not completely implausible. But this is going to fall under force majeure ("larger force") rules rather than "Act of God" rules. Force majeure generally refers to man-made problems; Act of God to natural disasters. (There's interesting lines of litigation in common-law countries right now about whether Covid-19 is an Act of God -- epidemics typically have been -- or whether local governments doing a piss-poor job of managing it pushes it to force majeure via bad choices. A tornado is an Act of God, but if your public building wasn't built to code, you're entering the realm of force majeure dumbassery where you manage to make yourself at fault through negligence.) And to dodge a contractual obligation under a force majeure theory requires that you didn't actually cause it through direct action or negligence or malfeasance, and the bad event was not under your control.
So Ukraine plausibly could avoid debt default by pleading force majeure -- they got invaded by a whole other country that just decided to up and invade them with no legal justification under international law. (Similarly, somewhere like Kazakhstan might be able to argue force majeure under a theory like, we had nothing to do with Russia invading Ukraine, but boy did it sure tank our economy since our currency is tied to the ruble, now we cannot pay these bonds because we can't even turn our rubles into a currency you will accept. Might not be persuasive, but it's definitely an argument you'd make.) But Russia probably cannot claim force majeure since INVADING UKRAINE WAS 100% IN THEIR CONTROL and the sanctions were a very predictable outcome of that choice. They're going to argue the sanctions were just a thing the US/EU decided to do that Russia had no control over, therefore, force majeure. That's going to be very difficult to convince an English court of, though, both because the UK is allied with Ukraine in this, and because Russia has been sanctioned for invading Ukrainian territory before, beginning in 2014, so it's tough to argue this was an unanticipated outcome or capricious action by the US or EU (or other sanctioning parties). This was a very expected legal outcome of the invasion.
My parents had been planning a Baltic cruise this summer (originally planned for 2020 and pushed back by Covid), and have been force majeured out of it by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The cruise line is refunding everybody and presumably they are insured for force majeure cancellations, and their insurers are reinsured for it, these are all insurable risks and there's a whole group of insurers who basically reinsure insurance companies against these natural disaster and war risks that could wipe out an individual company or a small insurance company, but your insurer reinsures against their risk of being wiped out by this kind of rare event, which lets them insure companies and individuals against it.
(jinx, snuffleupagus!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:55 PM on April 11, 2022 [22 favorites]
ISW dedicates about half of today's update to Dvornikov's naming as the new Russian commander, and they conclude that it wasn't a particularly insightful or important decision. He's already the commander in Russia's current focus of the war and the most senior of the commanders. Nor is he the only Russian commander guilty of atrocities against civilians in Syria; these have already happened in other areas not under Dvornikov's command.
posted by meowzilla at 7:23 PM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 7:23 PM on April 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
They didn't pick him over the other generals because he committed war crimes in Syria, all the Russian generals committed war crimes in Syria. It's a prerequisite for the job.
posted by Reverend John at 7:38 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:38 PM on April 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also the larger international law point may be, if you want access to bonds issued but the US, UK, and Japan, which together make up more than 50% of the sovereign debt bond market, you are subjected to the laws of the US, UK, and Japan. There are huge advantages to choosing sovereign bonds denominated in dollars, pounds, and yen! Part of those advantages are "these are very, very big markets" (that can survive a smaller country's sovereign debt default). And part of those advantages are "these are very stable currencies." But a third part of those advantages, and part of what makes "big markets" and "stable currencies" true, is that they have mature and reliable financial systems, which rely on mature and reliable courts, and (in the US and UK) hundreds of years of experience with sovereign bonds (and with reinsurance). (Somewhat less in Japan, but they've learned from their allies and applied those lessons exceedingly well.) (Fun fact, Italy is (barely) the largest sovereign debt issuer in the EU, literally because Venice invented sovereign bonds in the 12th century, and then Venice collapsed multiple times because of defaults, but its inheritor state Italy has robust legal history around bonds and sovereign debt that make it attractive and reliable! Italian law is not your first choice for a lot of things, but for sovereign debt? They're pretty good at that, and you've got 900 years of knowing how lawsuits will go!)
Like probably the smarter move in the future for Russia is to seek Chinese sovereign bonds denominated in renminbi. China has a huge bond market (second only to the US, I think) but it's dominated by regional Chinese bonds, and China wants a lot more of the international sovereign bond market. China would probably offer Russia relatively favorable terms, to score the prize of Russia's sovereign debt. Of course a renminbi bond is far less valuable than a US/UK/Japan bond -- the renminbi doesn't even freely float! -- buuuuuuut you get to litigate your claims in Chinese courts, which have a very mixed (and politically-driven) record on bond litigation, and while theoretically independent, do not appear to be actually independent when it comes to sovereign bonds.
And of course it would push Russia further towards being a mere Chinese client state, but that seems like an inevitable outcome of this disastrous war, no? It also seems basically inevitable -- unless the Putin government collapses relatively quickly, and is replaced by someone willing to make concessions to NATO, it seems unlikely that Western bond markets will be available to Russia for quite a while, and Chinese bond markets will be their best bet. Which weakens Russia in the mid-term (40 years or so), but strengthens China. US or UK sovereign debt bonds may be a carrot that NATO countries can offer Russia in exchange for concessions; that could be a win-win for NATO and Russia (keep Russian debt in Western hands, get better bonds). But tbh I don't think that's a big enough carrot; it clearly wasn't after 1991. I think Russia's next sovereign debt sales will occur on the Chinese market, unless NATO and/or the TPP intervene in a significant and coordinated way to prevent it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:14 PM on April 11, 2022 [27 favorites]
Like probably the smarter move in the future for Russia is to seek Chinese sovereign bonds denominated in renminbi. China has a huge bond market (second only to the US, I think) but it's dominated by regional Chinese bonds, and China wants a lot more of the international sovereign bond market. China would probably offer Russia relatively favorable terms, to score the prize of Russia's sovereign debt. Of course a renminbi bond is far less valuable than a US/UK/Japan bond -- the renminbi doesn't even freely float! -- buuuuuuut you get to litigate your claims in Chinese courts, which have a very mixed (and politically-driven) record on bond litigation, and while theoretically independent, do not appear to be actually independent when it comes to sovereign bonds.
And of course it would push Russia further towards being a mere Chinese client state, but that seems like an inevitable outcome of this disastrous war, no? It also seems basically inevitable -- unless the Putin government collapses relatively quickly, and is replaced by someone willing to make concessions to NATO, it seems unlikely that Western bond markets will be available to Russia for quite a while, and Chinese bond markets will be their best bet. Which weakens Russia in the mid-term (40 years or so), but strengthens China. US or UK sovereign debt bonds may be a carrot that NATO countries can offer Russia in exchange for concessions; that could be a win-win for NATO and Russia (keep Russian debt in Western hands, get better bonds). But tbh I don't think that's a big enough carrot; it clearly wasn't after 1991. I think Russia's next sovereign debt sales will occur on the Chinese market, unless NATO and/or the TPP intervene in a significant and coordinated way to prevent it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:14 PM on April 11, 2022 [27 favorites]
They didn't pick him over the other generals because he committed war crimes in Syria, all the Russian generals committed war crimes in Syria. It's a prerequisite for the job.
Indeed, they've already been parading this Bond villain, Col. Minitsev around.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:17 PM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Indeed, they've already been parading this Bond villain, Col. Minitsev around.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:17 PM on April 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Huge if true rumor on Twitter that Vladislav Surkov has been arrested on corruption charges. Sometimes called Putin’s brain he has been a driving force behind the nationalist, traditionalist, right wing ideology in Russia. He has provided the insane psuedo-philisophical cover for the regimes actions. This could mean a major shakeup is underway at the Kremlin.
posted by interogative mood at 8:24 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:24 PM on April 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thanks Eyebrows, now I'm beginning to consider the intersection between high-finance and theology.
posted by adept256 at 8:41 PM on April 11, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 8:41 PM on April 11, 2022 [16 favorites]
That Feb 2018 incident in Northern Syria interogative mood refers to is the Battle of Kasham, part of an action to take control of an oil field in Northeastern Syria.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:45 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 11:45 PM on April 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
In which there were the waves of F-22 fighters, F-15E strike fighters, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, B-52 bombers, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and heavy Marine artillery, too.
posted by y2karl at 12:41 AM on April 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 12:41 AM on April 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
On which James Mattis signed off and for which the Joint Chiefs of Staff gave the order. I didn't see any mention of then President Trump's involvement in the matter. Which is very interesting. Thank you interrogative mood for mentioning this and Stoneshop for expanding upon it.
posted by y2karl at 12:56 AM on April 12, 2022
posted by y2karl at 12:56 AM on April 12, 2022
Mariupol mayor says siege has killed more than 10K civilians, according to AP. The mayor is not in the city but is citing sources.
(It had never occurred to me that the entire world could know about a genocide as it was happening but leaders in power would not or could not actually stop it because the aggressor possessed nuclear weapons. It’s complicated. I get that. End of derail.)
posted by Bella Donna at 1:01 AM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
(It had never occurred to me that the entire world could know about a genocide as it was happening but leaders in power would not or could not actually stop it because the aggressor possessed nuclear weapons. It’s complicated. I get that. End of derail.)
posted by Bella Donna at 1:01 AM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
Previously, Belarusian hackers linked with the anti-Lukashenko resistance attacked the state railway's control systems to stop troop trains, so local resistance is not that unlikely.
From what I gather, there is a lot of opposition sentiment in Belarus which has been kept down with brute force. The current situation may be straining the regime's ability to keep a lid on it.
posted by acb at 2:53 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
From what I gather, there is a lot of opposition sentiment in Belarus which has been kept down with brute force. The current situation may be straining the regime's ability to keep a lid on it.
posted by acb at 2:53 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
As Russians look to finally take Mariupol - amid unconfirmed claims of chemical weapons use - its worth reflecting that a Facebook group for relatives looking for missing loved ones now has 140K members.
posted by adamvasco at 3:27 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 3:27 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
An interview with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, who’s in charge of exchanging prisoners of war with Russians (parts of it are distressing). Excerpt:
Comfortable in her army fatigues, Vereshchuk says her top priority is to secure the release of not only Ukrainian soldiers but also of hundreds of civilians, including priests, journalists and activists, who she says are being held in cells alongside criminals.posted by Kattullus at 4:59 AM on April 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
But this poses difficulties. Moscow will only exchange like-for-like but Kyiv says it holds no Russian civilians.
"Russia wants to use those people as an exchange fund."
Bellingcat shares its map of Civilian Harm in Ukraine.
posted by Bella Donna at 5:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 5:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
The 20th-Century History Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – During WWII, Ukrainian nationalists saw the Nazis as liberators from Soviet oppression. Now, Russia is using that chapter to paint Ukraine as a Nazi nation, Katya Cengel, Smithsonian History, March 4, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 5:45 AM on April 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by cenoxo at 5:45 AM on April 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Guardian is reporting that Russia is getting arms (including missile systems) sourced from Iraq and smuggled through Iran, and makes the larger point that Russia is turning to various arms smuggling networks to source arms.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:01 AM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 6:01 AM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
BBC, yesterday: Hidden wealth of one of Putin’s 'inner circle' revealed
Operator Starsky (Ukraine MoD Public Affairs): War in Ukraine, day 47: Liberated village of Romanivka
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:14 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Leaked documents seen by BBC News show how a sanctioned oligarch from Putin's "inner circle" hid his wealth. They reveal how a Swiss tattoo artist was falsely named as owner of a company that transferred over $300m (£230m) to firms linked to Suleiman Kerimov. They also show how $700m of transactions - and the secret ownership of luxury properties - went undetected. The investigation exposes failures of the banking system and the obstacles impeding Western sanctions.
Operator Starsky (Ukraine MoD Public Affairs): War in Ukraine, day 47: Liberated village of Romanivka
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:14 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
That postage stamp is….unique.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:42 AM on April 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:42 AM on April 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
That postage stamp is...awesome, you mean.
posted by Windopaene at 7:18 AM on April 12, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 7:18 AM on April 12, 2022 [17 favorites]
The postcard too! I second the twitter comments calling for another stamp, picturing a tractor towing a tank.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:24 AM on April 12, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:24 AM on April 12, 2022 [12 favorites]
UK Defence Journal: Ukrainian troops arriving in UK for British weapons training
Minister James Heappey said the UK would step up its support for Ukraine’s military, he told LBC Radio today:Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on Twitter
“There’s 120 armoured vehicles that are in the process of being made ready. The Ukrainian troops that will operate them will arrive in the UK in the next few days to learn how to drive and command those vehicles.”
NEW: U.S. has delivered a "significant amount" of the first 100 Switchblade drones to Ukrainian troops and the kamikaze drones are being used in the field: senior U.S. defense officialposted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:46 AM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
U.S. is working hard to expedite the supplies of more of the drones that detonate over targets
^ nice upgrade over helmets + thoughts/prayers
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:54 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:54 AM on April 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
The UK did send NLAWs previously. But providing armored vehicles that are not Warsaw Pact surplus is a significant increase in support.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
> As a quick tip: if you want a translation of a screenshot of text, Yandex does a great job.
The dedicated Google Translate smartphone app will do image translation, too, if you'd rather point your camera at the screen and submit your translation to the Google Panopticon than the Russian one. It's worked pretty well for me for Ukrainian and Russian recently.
posted by jammer at 8:54 AM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
The dedicated Google Translate smartphone app will do image translation, too, if you'd rather point your camera at the screen and submit your translation to the Google Panopticon than the Russian one. It's worked pretty well for me for Ukrainian and Russian recently.
posted by jammer at 8:54 AM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
If you have an iOS device and want to avoid surveillance, they now have an entirely client-side translation app from Apple, which does Russian (though not Ukrainian). Not sure how it compares, but I tried it with German and it was quite decent.
posted by acb at 9:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:04 AM on April 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
nice upgrade over helmets + thoughts/prayers
Russia has conspired to give Boris Johnson a chance to play Churchill. Lol if they thought he'd stay bought.
posted by ryanrs at 9:44 AM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
Russia has conspired to give Boris Johnson a chance to play Churchill. Lol if they thought he'd stay bought.
posted by ryanrs at 9:44 AM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
A Twitter thread on another downed drone, an Orlan-30, said to be an improved Orlan-10 ridiculed earlier. Photos show more of the construction and the components used such as the engine, a Japanese 100cc boxer twin, and of course the fuel jug.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:23 AM on April 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 11:23 AM on April 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Wired: The Race to Save Posts That May Prove Russian War Crimes
Collecting online evidence so that it can meet the standards of a criminal court requires painstaking work. Links logged by Rabomizo and volunteers working with him are fed to a nonprofit called Mnemonic, which has created software that downloads social posts from different platforms and generates a cryptographic hash to show the material has not been altered. It saves the posts into a digital archive that will be made available to investigators. Mnemonic operates similar collections for conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Sudan. Its material has contributed to criminal complaints filed in Germany and Sweden against Syria’s use of chemical weapons, but the cases have not reached court.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:52 AM on April 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
The US is indicating it does not object to Slovakia's proposal to send its MiG-29s to Ukraine.
Putin's toadie in Ukraine, Viktor Medvedchuk has been arrested by Ukrainian security services.
Oryx updated lost Russian equipment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
Putin's toadie in Ukraine, Viktor Medvedchuk has been arrested by Ukrainian security services.
Oryx updated lost Russian equipment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on April 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
I've just learnt what a subotnik is. It's a day for people to pick up trash and tidy up the place. It's a tradition going back to the revolution. What a great thing to do for the community as a community. It's good stuff, bring the kids.
Here's a picture of Ukrainians expressing their gratitude with a subotnik in Poland.
posted by adept256 at 2:00 PM on April 12, 2022 [25 favorites]
Here's a picture of Ukrainians expressing their gratitude with a subotnik in Poland.
posted by adept256 at 2:00 PM on April 12, 2022 [25 favorites]
thank you for this, adept256
my community was an evacuation point for a nearby community that got wildfired out.. that is my closest point of comparison to what Ukrainians must be dealing with now.. from what I observed, the shock of losing everything to fire once you've escaped the immediate threat, you wake up in some gymnasium surrounded by others, you will need to ask someone about a toothbrush, maybe you did not pack any clothes, maybe you are trying to reconnect with family, charge your phone, etc. It's overwhelming.
I don't know how I'd deal with this, but if I could muster the energy to pick up garbage I guess it would keep me occupied. I mean, it's something. This is a terrible challenge for all of us, I watch the Ukraine threads but mostly I can't engage.
posted by elkevelvet at 2:17 PM on April 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
my community was an evacuation point for a nearby community that got wildfired out.. that is my closest point of comparison to what Ukrainians must be dealing with now.. from what I observed, the shock of losing everything to fire once you've escaped the immediate threat, you wake up in some gymnasium surrounded by others, you will need to ask someone about a toothbrush, maybe you did not pack any clothes, maybe you are trying to reconnect with family, charge your phone, etc. It's overwhelming.
I don't know how I'd deal with this, but if I could muster the energy to pick up garbage I guess it would keep me occupied. I mean, it's something. This is a terrible challenge for all of us, I watch the Ukraine threads but mostly I can't engage.
posted by elkevelvet at 2:17 PM on April 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Biden has now referred to this as "genocide".
posted by Flunkie at 3:32 PM on April 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 3:32 PM on April 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
... and is now going to "vastly expand weapons for Ukraine".
posted by Flunkie at 3:42 PM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 3:42 PM on April 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
Economist and realist geopolitcs understander Peter Zeihan explains what Russia's up to with the Rouble and its gold reserves.
WaPo: Putin Says Ukraine Peace Talks Hit ‘Dead End,’ Vows to Continue Fight. [Mirror.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:47 PM on April 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
WaPo: Putin Says Ukraine Peace Talks Hit ‘Dead End,’ Vows to Continue Fight. [Mirror.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:47 PM on April 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Korean Ukrainians refuse to become 'Russian prisoners' again
Tens of thousands of ethnic Koreans like Ms Nam's parents fled Uzbekistan and resettled in the southern part of Ukraine when the former Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s.
Though living overseas, Ms Nam said the war made her feel more Ukrainian than before and she hoped she could go back once the fighting is over to help rebuild her country.
Many Korean Ukrainians share that sentiment, and for them the fight against the invasion means more than independence.
"My family doesn't want to live under Russia again," she said.
The watermelon province
Kherson, with its fertile farmland, is the watermelon province of Ukraine.
It became home to many Soviet Koreans, called Koryo Saram, when they first migrated to the country.
People hold a banner in the colours of the Ukrainian flag.
Many Kherson residents have been protesting Russia's occupation of their city.(Reuters)
Many ethnic Koreans in Kherson are descended from those who were deported en masse from Russia's far-east in the 1930s.
More than 170,000 people were deported to Central Asia, under Joseph Stalin's policy of ethnic cleansing.
posted by cendawanita at 8:26 PM on April 12, 2022 [29 favorites]
Tens of thousands of ethnic Koreans like Ms Nam's parents fled Uzbekistan and resettled in the southern part of Ukraine when the former Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s.
Though living overseas, Ms Nam said the war made her feel more Ukrainian than before and she hoped she could go back once the fighting is over to help rebuild her country.
Many Korean Ukrainians share that sentiment, and for them the fight against the invasion means more than independence.
"My family doesn't want to live under Russia again," she said.
The watermelon province
Kherson, with its fertile farmland, is the watermelon province of Ukraine.
It became home to many Soviet Koreans, called Koryo Saram, when they first migrated to the country.
People hold a banner in the colours of the Ukrainian flag.
Many Kherson residents have been protesting Russia's occupation of their city.(Reuters)
Many ethnic Koreans in Kherson are descended from those who were deported en masse from Russia's far-east in the 1930s.
More than 170,000 people were deported to Central Asia, under Joseph Stalin's policy of ethnic cleansing.
posted by cendawanita at 8:26 PM on April 12, 2022 [29 favorites]
From The Guardian: Ukrainian security services have announced the arrest of Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Ukraine, the oligarch and opposition politician Viktor Medvedchuk, in what they called a “lightning-fast and dangerous” operation.
Dude does not look happy in handcuffs. Apologies if this is a double post.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:27 AM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Dude does not look happy in handcuffs. Apologies if this is a double post.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:27 AM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Two weeks before the war began I accepted a job at a company that assembles utility scale battery storage systems, with a lot of activity in the EU. I was hoping to have a bit part in preventing this war.
This means I've spent a lot of my off time studying the attempted hacking of the Ukrainian electric grid in 2015. I've a lot of inchoate thoughts about all that and what it shows about the cognitive bubble that envelops the Kremlin. But anyway, they just tried it again
posted by ocschwar at 5:42 AM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
This means I've spent a lot of my off time studying the attempted hacking of the Ukrainian electric grid in 2015. I've a lot of inchoate thoughts about all that and what it shows about the cognitive bubble that envelops the Kremlin. But anyway, they just tried it again
posted by ocschwar at 5:42 AM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
TLDR: their behavior in 2015/2016 was "worse than a crime. It was a blunder."
posted by ocschwar at 5:53 AM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 5:53 AM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
⚡️Media: Sweden to apply for NATO membership in June.Reuters: Finland to make decision on NATO entry in coming weeks, not months
The application will be submitted at the alliance’s Madrid summit, the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper reported on April 13.
"I won't give any kind of timetable when we will make our decisions, but I think it will happen quite fast - within weeks not within months," said [PM] Marin, whose country shares a 1,300-km (810-mile)-long border with Russia to the east.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:49 AM on April 13, 2022 [18 favorites]
This video of a tour of a suburb of Kyiv that received heavy shelling really moved me. Especially a conversation with an old man who stayed through the occupation. He was fairly ... cheerful? ... though most of the interview until they asked him if he had any message for the Ukrainian defenders and his reaction just gutted me.
posted by Reverend John at 9:53 AM on April 13, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 9:53 AM on April 13, 2022 [17 favorites]
According to Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko, two-thirds of Kyiv residents are now back home (though official advisory is still to hold off on returning on account of ballistic attacks). Today's VIP visit is the presidents of Poland and the Baltics, who have not heeded that advisory either.
In the meantime, Poland's parliament has voted against the ban on LPG import from Russia - with votes of the ruling right-wing parties - because unlike coal and gas, no alternate sources have been secured. About 3 million cars in Poland have been altered to use LPG as fuel due to its cheapness, and it's commonly sold in gas stations alongside petrol and diesel, though LPG-powered cars are officially banned from multi-storey and underground car parks due to risk of explosion.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:09 AM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
In the meantime, Poland's parliament has voted against the ban on LPG import from Russia - with votes of the ruling right-wing parties - because unlike coal and gas, no alternate sources have been secured. About 3 million cars in Poland have been altered to use LPG as fuel due to its cheapness, and it's commonly sold in gas stations alongside petrol and diesel, though LPG-powered cars are officially banned from multi-storey and underground car parks due to risk of explosion.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:09 AM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
Was there any discussion about imposing tariffs on Russian LPG?
posted by Reverend John at 10:55 AM on April 13, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 10:55 AM on April 13, 2022
Nope, because the current party in power (Kaczyński J. et consortes) is morally-conservative/reactionary - let's just say they supported Trump to the point of promoting the stolen-election lie - but economically populist, with their power base in the people who think others profited too much from Poland's transformation into a market economy. Raising prices on the "poor people's fuel" on top of currently galloping inflation and previous desperate measures to lower fuel prices by cutting fuel taxes would be desperately unpopular.
(They also just finally published their "improved" report into the Smolensk disaster, declaring that dastardly Russians in cooperation with the then-prime minister and current opposition leader planted cunning bombs that perfectly mimicked the effect of running the plane's wing into a tree and set them off at the exact moment Kaczynski L. ordered the pilot to descend into a fog with near-zero visibility and ignore all the plane system's altitude alarms. In which report they forgot to censor the photo evidence so everyone could download images of the torn-apart bodies of the country's top politicians and military brass. Kaczynski J. today declared that he wants to imprison Tusk for it. I may have Opinions.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:14 PM on April 13, 2022 [22 favorites]
(They also just finally published their "improved" report into the Smolensk disaster, declaring that dastardly Russians in cooperation with the then-prime minister and current opposition leader planted cunning bombs that perfectly mimicked the effect of running the plane's wing into a tree and set them off at the exact moment Kaczynski L. ordered the pilot to descend into a fog with near-zero visibility and ignore all the plane system's altitude alarms. In which report they forgot to censor the photo evidence so everyone could download images of the torn-apart bodies of the country's top politicians and military brass. Kaczynski J. today declared that he wants to imprison Tusk for it. I may have Opinions.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:14 PM on April 13, 2022 [22 favorites]
Not fully confirmed but the Moskva is the flagship of the Russian fleet.
“The cruiser Moskva has just been hit by 2 Neptune missiles. It is standing, burning. And there is a storm at sea. Tactical flooding is required, apparently,”
posted by sammyo at 1:00 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
“The cruiser Moskva has just been hit by 2 Neptune missiles. It is standing, burning. And there is a storm at sea. Tactical flooding is required, apparently,”
posted by sammyo at 1:00 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is still very much in the “unconfirmed” bucket, but there are reports that “Russia’s most powerful warship in the Black Sea” has been hit by two Neptune missiles and is on fire.
posted by Kattullus at 1:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 1:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
Moskva was one of the ships involved in the Snake Island "Russian ship go fuck yourself" incident. Would be a huge win if Ukraine managed to sink or mission kill him.
posted by nathan_teske at 1:05 PM on April 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by nathan_teske at 1:05 PM on April 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
Today's VIP visit is the presidents of Poland and the Baltics, who have not heeded that advisory either.
Steinmeier's visit to Kyiv 'not wanted' | DW News
So the German president was supposed to be on this trip as well but the Ukrainians snubbed him. The reason for this is that since the annexation of Crimea, Steinmeier was advocating for yet cozier relations with Russia, pushing hard for the Nordstream pipeline.
Is it a good idea to snub the Germans? Steinmeier seems to understand and accept the Ukrainian's response, though in this report on German public TV they say it probably wasn't a good idea.
I get it, this guy is Neville Chamberlain and his appeasement led to where we are now. Did he expect a red carpet?
posted by adept256 at 1:21 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Steinmeier's visit to Kyiv 'not wanted' | DW News
So the German president was supposed to be on this trip as well but the Ukrainians snubbed him. The reason for this is that since the annexation of Crimea, Steinmeier was advocating for yet cozier relations with Russia, pushing hard for the Nordstream pipeline.
Is it a good idea to snub the Germans? Steinmeier seems to understand and accept the Ukrainian's response, though in this report on German public TV they say it probably wasn't a good idea.
I get it, this guy is Neville Chamberlain and his appeasement led to where we are now. Did he expect a red carpet?
posted by adept256 at 1:21 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
If the Moskva strike is real I really hope there's either impact or BDA video, it'd be an additional coup to broadcast that shortly after the inevitable denial.
German public TV don't think it was a good idea to snub the German leader. This fails to surprise me. We'll see if the Germans would like to do anything to be less snubbed.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:22 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
German public TV don't think it was a good idea to snub the German leader. This fails to surprise me. We'll see if the Germans would like to do anything to be less snubbed.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:22 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
There are other German politicians who are less morally compromised. Let them go to Ukraine in Steinmeier's stead.
posted by acb at 1:35 PM on April 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:35 PM on April 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
I don't think I've seen this mentioned here, apologies if I've overlooked it. It looks like 36th Marines and Azov Regiment in Mariupol staged a joint action last night allowing some elements of the 36th to withdraw in good order while the remainder fought through Russian lines to unite with the Azov (presumably at the Azovstal mill). Slightly better news than the "imminent fall" many were predicting yesterday, but no doubt still desperate.
Reddit post with video of a joint statement by the two commanders involved.
posted by jammer at 1:40 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Reddit post with video of a joint statement by the two commanders involved.
posted by jammer at 1:40 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
To avoid editing because I forgot:
Also from reddit, since the new Ukrainian postage stamps were mentioned above, a delightful picture of Zelenksyy proudly brandishing the aforementioned stamps and postcards.
posted by jammer at 1:47 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
Also from reddit, since the new Ukrainian postage stamps were mentioned above, a delightful picture of Zelenksyy proudly brandishing the aforementioned stamps and postcards.
posted by jammer at 1:47 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
TIME's W.J. Hennigan on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:24 PM on April 13, 2022 [19 favorites]
NEW: US equipment being sent to Ukraine as part of Biden Admin’s $800M aid package.They've been going back and forth on whether to send those helos.
18 155mm Howitzers & 40k rounds
10 AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars
2 AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars
300 Switchblade drones
500 Javelins & 1000s anti-armor systems
200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
100 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles
11 Mi-17 helicopters
Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment
30k sets of body armor and helmets
Over 2,000 optics & laser rangefinders
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions
Fwiw… The 11 Soviet-designed Mi-17 Hip helicopters were initially slated to be sent to the now-defunct Afghan Air Force.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:24 PM on April 13, 2022 [19 favorites]
18 155mm Howitzers & 40k rounds
18?!? Ukraine has 500 2S3s and they're running out of 152mm ammo. I get the US doesn't carry a lot of towed artillery because it's not the 1950s anymore but 18?!? We're throwing out M198s as the M777s are built. We're not going to be fighting a ground war while they catch up on the M777 production. Get more of the M198s out to the Ukrainians.
All the tenacity in the world and they're going to be let down because the world can't supply commodity indirect fire hardware fast enough.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:12 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
18?!? Ukraine has 500 2S3s and they're running out of 152mm ammo. I get the US doesn't carry a lot of towed artillery because it's not the 1950s anymore but 18?!? We're throwing out M198s as the M777s are built. We're not going to be fighting a ground war while they catch up on the M777 production. Get more of the M198s out to the Ukrainians.
All the tenacity in the world and they're going to be let down because the world can't supply commodity indirect fire hardware fast enough.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:12 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Are you sure there are still M-198s in the US inventory? Looks like even the National Guard was eliminating it in 2010.
Military Today (not particularly official): The production run of the M198 was from 1978 to 1992, and some 1600-1700 were built. Originally a total of 1300 of these howitzers were delivered to the US armed forces, while the rest were exported. This howitzer has been used by Australia, Bahrain, Ecuador, Honduras, Iraq, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Thailand, and Tunisia. It has been retired from service in the Australian and US armed forces. At present, the largest user is Lebanon, with at least 179 examples in active service.
I would have liked to see some rocket artillery in there.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:40 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Military Today (not particularly official): The production run of the M198 was from 1978 to 1992, and some 1600-1700 were built. Originally a total of 1300 of these howitzers were delivered to the US armed forces, while the rest were exported. This howitzer has been used by Australia, Bahrain, Ecuador, Honduras, Iraq, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Thailand, and Tunisia. It has been retired from service in the Australian and US armed forces. At present, the largest user is Lebanon, with at least 179 examples in active service.
I would have liked to see some rocket artillery in there.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:40 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
I thought the transition was still ongoing. Either way we desperately need to get more 155mm artillery into the hands of the Ukrainians.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:54 PM on April 13, 2022
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:54 PM on April 13, 2022
Looks like the US will start providing intel on the occupied territories.
WSJ: Biden Administration to Provide Ukraine With More Intelligence, Heavier Weapons to Fight Russia (Archive.ph)
WSJ: Biden Administration to Provide Ukraine With More Intelligence, Heavier Weapons to Fight Russia (Archive.ph)
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin alluded to the impending change on intelligence sharing in a Thursday appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee, telling lawmakers that the administration was planning to issue updated guidance.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
When questioned by Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.), Mr. Austin said the old guidance wasn’t clear that such intelligence could be provided to help the Ukrainians reclaim territory in Donbas and Crimea.
U.S. intelligence and Pentagon officials moved to update the intelligence guidance the next day. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby confirmed on Wednesday that the guidance had been updated, but didn’t provide details.
The Ukrainians have claimed a strike on a Russian cruiser. It's expected to be the Moskva. OSINT is saying they've been sending out distress calls saying "SINKING" but nothing definitive.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Marine Le Pen to withdraw France from NATO’s unified military command if she wins
Marine Le Pen plays down her Russia ties ahead of election runoff
I mean FFS what a turd. No prize for guessing who the election trollniks are supporting. America isn't the only country with pig ignorant fascist fuckwits who get all their 'news' off facebook.
France is the only country in the EU with nukes. I imagine leaving NATO would change the calculus on deterrence.
posted by adept256 at 4:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [27 favorites]
“I want France to leave NATO’s unified military command. I will never agree that our troops are subordinate to the NATO command or the European command. France should return to the status in the alliance that it had from 1966 to 2009,” the French presidential candidate said.I guess we know who's paying her bills. Don't mistake this for a sneering insinuation, we know 100% for a fact she is funded by Russia:
National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen has said that if she wins the presidential election, she will withdraw France from NATO’s unified military command.
Le Pen said that if she is elected, she intends to offer NATO a strategic rapprochement with Russia after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
“When hostilities are over, I will propose a strategic rapprochement between NATO and Russia,” Le Pen said.
Marine Le Pen plays down her Russia ties ahead of election runoff
A longtime admirer of Putin, Le Pen visited the Kremlin in 2017, praised the Russian president’s “new vision” of the world, and accepted Russian loans to finance her party. Last month, Le Pen’s campaign team reportedly had to bin over a million campaign leaflets because they featured a photo of her shaking hands with Putin. Earlier in February, Le Pen said she did not believe “at all” that Russia would invade Ukraine, and condemned “a misunderstanding of the issues and thinking” in Russia.Right. Putin's a bad guy now? And your solution is to pull out of NATO. This must be what it felt like seeing America First bullshit in 1939. After Bucha? No. No fucking way. Fuck la pen.
She has since backtracked, admitting on television that the conflict had “changed her opinion” of Putin, and she has consistently condemned the invasion. Earlier this month, she called the reports of civilian massacres by Russian troops in Bucha “war crimes,” and called for a U.N.-led investigation.
I mean FFS what a turd. No prize for guessing who the election trollniks are supporting. America isn't the only country with pig ignorant fascist fuckwits who get all their 'news' off facebook.
France is the only country in the EU with nukes. I imagine leaving NATO would change the calculus on deterrence.
posted by adept256 at 4:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [27 favorites]
we desperately need to get more 155mm artillery into the hands of the Ukrainians.
Yes. The US had over 1,000 M-777s by 2018, so unless there's a missing zero and it's 180 that seems very low. Brazil has a decent number of M-198s, not sure where they are on the conflict but there's no imminent threat there such that they couldn't wait for replacements.
A train loaded with unmarked US self propelled artillery was seen moving through Poland, but that doesn't sound like its a part of this. More likely the NATO redeployments.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:05 PM on April 13, 2022
Yes. The US had over 1,000 M-777s by 2018, so unless there's a missing zero and it's 180 that seems very low. Brazil has a decent number of M-198s, not sure where they are on the conflict but there's no imminent threat there such that they couldn't wait for replacements.
A train loaded with unmarked US self propelled artillery was seen moving through Poland, but that doesn't sound like its a part of this. More likely the NATO redeployments.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:05 PM on April 13, 2022
This must be what it felt like seeing America First bullshit in 1939.
It's also what it felt like seeing America First bullshit in 2016-2020.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:07 PM on April 13, 2022 [37 favorites]
It's also what it felt like seeing America First bullshit in 2016-2020.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:07 PM on April 13, 2022 [37 favorites]
На ракетном крейсере "Москва" в результате пожара сдетонировал боезапас
Headline on an official russian site, "Ammunition detonated on the Moskva missile cruiser as a result of a fire", crew fully evacuated. No discussion of what started the fire.
posted by sammyo at 4:19 PM on April 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
Headline on an official russian site, "Ammunition detonated on the Moskva missile cruiser as a result of a fire", crew fully evacuated. No discussion of what started the fire.
posted by sammyo at 4:19 PM on April 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
It's worse. I saw Zelenskyy's wife describe Russian propaganda as 'worse than goebbels'. Her reasoning - we have social media and the internet. We're watching this in real time, the visibility doesn't compare. You could at least plead ignorance in 1939, much of the worst wasn't known by the public 'til 1945. There's no excuse in 2022. La Pen knows what's happening, she's seen it, she loves those sweet sweet rubles and fears whatever kompromat strings it comes with.
SCUM
posted by adept256 at 4:25 PM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
SCUM
posted by adept256 at 4:25 PM on April 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
Wikipedia page for the Moskva missile cruiser was defaced twice today when I checked it. The first time the “Status” section read “On Fire” later this changed to “April 13, 2022 Fucked off By Ukrainian Missiles”
Be aware there is lots of fake footage going around the Internet. It was apparently quite stormy on the Black Sea and most of the action happened at night.
posted by interogative mood at 5:18 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Be aware there is lots of fake footage going around the Internet. It was apparently quite stormy on the Black Sea and most of the action happened at night.
posted by interogative mood at 5:18 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ammunition detonated on the Moskva missile cruiser
On that everyone agrees.
The Hill: Macron warns of ‘escalation of rhetoric’ after Biden ‘genocide’ comment
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:27 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
On that everyone agrees.
The Hill: Macron warns of ‘escalation of rhetoric’ after Biden ‘genocide’ comment
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday declined to characterize the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine as genocide, saying that “an escalation of rhetoric” is harmful.Guess he's feeling LePen breathing down his neck.
Macron said Wednesday that his goal is to “stop this war and rebuild peace” and not use rhetoric like “genocide” to escalate tensions with Russia. However, he called the Kremlin’s actions “war crimes,” following the trend of Western allies.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:27 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Clarification on the Le Pen thing: France was a founding member of NATO but De Gaulle insisted on keeping France’s military out of the unified command structure. What Le Pen is saying is that she would have France return to that arrangement, not leave NATO entirely. So it’s not quite the same kind of brazen nonsense the former US president used to run his mouth about defunding or pulling out of the alliance. While it still plays into Putin’s hands, I think this is more about trying to win points with the old De Gaulle constituency.
posted by harlan at 5:35 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by harlan at 5:35 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Foreign Policy Research Institute's Rob Lee on Twitter
TB2 is the famed Bayraktar drone. Neptun is UA's home grown anti ship missile.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:20 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
TB2 is the famed Bayraktar drone. Neptun is UA's home grown anti ship missile.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:20 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
The legend lives on from Rostov on Don
Of the big lake they call the Black Sea.
The sea it is said never gives up her dead
When the skys of Bayaktars turn gloomy.
A load of missiles she bore, 26 thousand tons more
Than the Moskva weighed empty
That bad ship told fuck off you was a bone to be chewed
When the Neptune missiles came quickly.
The ship was the pride of the Russian side…….
…several more verses left for the readers imagination….
The wreck of the Missile Cruiser Moskva.
posted by interogative mood at 6:47 PM on April 13, 2022 [21 favorites]
Of the big lake they call the Black Sea.
The sea it is said never gives up her dead
When the skys of Bayaktars turn gloomy.
A load of missiles she bore, 26 thousand tons more
Than the Moskva weighed empty
That bad ship told fuck off you was a bone to be chewed
When the Neptune missiles came quickly.
The ship was the pride of the Russian side…….
…several more verses left for the readers imagination….
The wreck of the Missile Cruiser Moskva.
posted by interogative mood at 6:47 PM on April 13, 2022 [21 favorites]
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
Which implies that some of the Moskva's radar capabilities fell off the back of a truck and were. installed elsewhere.
posted by ocschwar at 6:55 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Which implies that some of the Moskva's radar capabilities fell off the back of a truck and were. installed elsewhere.
posted by ocschwar at 6:55 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Neptune is apparently a very new missile developed by Ukraine that operates as a sea skimmer so it it hard to detect. This article was published today before the attack and highlighted the vulnerability of Russia’s Black Sea fleet to this missile and other western missiles that were on the way.
posted by interogative mood at 6:59 PM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:59 PM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
Headline on an official russian site, "Ammunition detonated on the Moskva missile cruiser as a result of a fire", crew fully evacuated. No discussion of what started the fire.
So, it, um, went and fucked itself.
How exactly is this better than admitting Ukraine sank it?
posted by ocschwar at 6:59 PM on April 13, 2022 [15 favorites]
So, it, um, went and fucked itself.
How exactly is this better than admitting Ukraine sank it?
posted by ocschwar at 6:59 PM on April 13, 2022 [15 favorites]
This whole thing is going so badly for Putin. I do wonder how far he will go the further he feels pushed up against a wall.
posted by hippybear at 7:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 7:01 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
How exactly is this better than admitting Ukraine sank it?
Same reason they arrested/fired all these FSB people: so they can claim it's a stab-in-the-back.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 7:19 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Same reason they arrested/fired all these FSB people: so they can claim it's a stab-in-the-back.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 7:19 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Last I heard, Turkey wasn't allowing Russian ships into the Black Sea. Does that mean they won't let them out either? 🤣
posted by adept256 at 7:28 PM on April 13, 2022
posted by adept256 at 7:28 PM on April 13, 2022
With 3 sunk so far, how many will be left to let out in a few weeks?
posted by hippybear at 7:33 PM on April 13, 2022
posted by hippybear at 7:33 PM on April 13, 2022
There once was a ship in the black sea
The name of the ship was the Moskva
The UCAV flew up,
her bow dipped down
Oh blow, that Neptune, blow (huh)
Soon may the Wellerman come
To bring us oil and guns so run, run.
One day, when the fleet is done
They'll take leave and go.
She'd not been two weeks from shore
When down on her a torpedo bore
The captain called all hands and swore
He'd take no ship in tow (huh)
posted by clavdivs at 7:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
The name of the ship was the Moskva
The UCAV flew up,
her bow dipped down
Oh blow, that Neptune, blow (huh)
Soon may the Wellerman come
To bring us oil and guns so run, run.
One day, when the fleet is done
They'll take leave and go.
She'd not been two weeks from shore
When down on her a torpedo bore
The captain called all hands and swore
He'd take no ship in tow (huh)
posted by clavdivs at 7:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Russian Black Sea fleet is down to about 19 ships at this point. The Moskva was critical to protecting other ships in the fleet from air attacks because it had advanced radars and anti-aircraft missiles.
posted by interogative mood at 8:12 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:12 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
🚀 Москва 🔥
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:16 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:16 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
For those, like me, who could benefit from more context on the loss of the Moskva. Feel free to expand or correct!
Cruisers are the largest naval surface combat ships and are armed with anti-ship missiles. Russia has five cruisers, one in refitting. A flagship is the command ship of an admiral. Moskva was the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet and one of the largest in their navy. It's displacement was 11280 tonnes.
The Neptune missile system is four vehicles, (Command, launcher, transport/reload and supply) one of which can launch four neptune missiles with 150kg warheads. They have a 300km range and can be located 25km inland. They are designed to target ships up to 5000 tonnes.
Ukraine has again inflicted great damage to the equipment of the Russian military.
posted by Emmy Noether at 8:21 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
Cruisers are the largest naval surface combat ships and are armed with anti-ship missiles. Russia has five cruisers, one in refitting. A flagship is the command ship of an admiral. Moskva was the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet and one of the largest in their navy. It's displacement was 11280 tonnes.
The Neptune missile system is four vehicles, (Command, launcher, transport/reload and supply) one of which can launch four neptune missiles with 150kg warheads. They have a 300km range and can be located 25km inland. They are designed to target ships up to 5000 tonnes.
Ukraine has again inflicted great damage to the equipment of the Russian military.
posted by Emmy Noether at 8:21 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
This whole thing is going so badly for Putin. I do wonder how far he will go the further he feels pushed up against a wall.
Hence Sweden's decision to join NATO, and Finland seems very likely to now, given the big swing in public support towards it after the invasion of Ukraine. His vague threats towards them against doing so appears to have been the final straw; this is a huge strategic blunder by Putin that will put a lot more pressure on the Russian army if he wants to station more forces to defend the vast northern border with Finland. It would also give NATO more options if he were ever planning on trying to attack the vulnerable Suwalki gap (the narrow land corridor between Poland and Lithuania, the only land route to the Baltics from another NATO member, and what separates Kaliningrad from Belarus).
WRT Le Pen, not only does she want to withdraw French forces from NATO command, she plans to demand NATO seek rapprochement and form stronger ties with Russia, and wants the EU to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. She's previously expressed admiration for Putin, and a 'new world order' forming with him, Trump and herself.
She also plans to re-negotiate bilateral defence arrangements with the UK, with French support being contingent on the UK stopping buying US weapons and buy them from France instead.
She is so entirely bought by Putin (literally), that she's this close to winning is really worrying. Let's hope enough of the French hold their nose to vote for Macron so they don't repeat the mistakes of the US, UK and Hungary.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:31 PM on April 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
Hence Sweden's decision to join NATO, and Finland seems very likely to now, given the big swing in public support towards it after the invasion of Ukraine. His vague threats towards them against doing so appears to have been the final straw; this is a huge strategic blunder by Putin that will put a lot more pressure on the Russian army if he wants to station more forces to defend the vast northern border with Finland. It would also give NATO more options if he were ever planning on trying to attack the vulnerable Suwalki gap (the narrow land corridor between Poland and Lithuania, the only land route to the Baltics from another NATO member, and what separates Kaliningrad from Belarus).
WRT Le Pen, not only does she want to withdraw French forces from NATO command, she plans to demand NATO seek rapprochement and form stronger ties with Russia, and wants the EU to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. She's previously expressed admiration for Putin, and a 'new world order' forming with him, Trump and herself.
She also plans to re-negotiate bilateral defence arrangements with the UK, with French support being contingent on the UK stopping buying US weapons and buy them from France instead.
She is so entirely bought by Putin (literally), that she's this close to winning is really worrying. Let's hope enough of the French hold their nose to vote for Macron so they don't repeat the mistakes of the US, UK and Hungary.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:31 PM on April 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
he feels pushed up against a wall.
Well let's not get too optimistic, plus they'd probably just poison him
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:33 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Well let's not get too optimistic, plus they'd probably just poison him
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:33 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
They are designed to target ships up to 5000 tonnes.
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
Either/ And - the missile system's performance is conservatively reported/ current RU military materiel is overly optimistically rated.
That RU sources are only saying that the loss of the ship was due to internal ordnance ignition suggests to me that's it's more "face saving" to pass this off as a "bad luck" thing, rather than admit that the ship was (fucked) shit in the first place.
posted by porpoise at 8:34 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
Either/ And - the missile system's performance is conservatively reported/ current RU military materiel is overly optimistically rated.
That RU sources are only saying that the loss of the ship was due to internal ordnance ignition suggests to me that's it's more "face saving" to pass this off as a "bad luck" thing, rather than admit that the ship was (fucked) shit in the first place.
posted by porpoise at 8:34 PM on April 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
They are designed to target ships up to 5000 tonnes.
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
Or any size ship with poor damage control training. Warships are pretty dang hard to sink. Even a (single) hit in the magazine shouldn't have done it. But I don't see why the navy should be expected to be any better trained and maintained than the army. (says a former sailor)
posted by ctmf at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [18 favorites]
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
Or any size ship with poor damage control training. Warships are pretty dang hard to sink. Even a (single) hit in the magazine shouldn't have done it. But I don't see why the navy should be expected to be any better trained and maintained than the army. (says a former sailor)
posted by ctmf at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [18 favorites]
Firefighting and damage control are a big part of what sailors train to do in war. Or, are supposed to. It's plausible that the ship took damage from a missile small enough that it should have been survivable, and then damage control went poorly. Those missile cruisers do carry a lot of reloads, along with their fuel.
I don't see why the navy should be expected to be any better trained and maintained than the army.
If anything, it's been historically thought of as worse.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
I don't see why the navy should be expected to be any better trained and maintained than the army.
If anything, it's been historically thought of as worse.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Live by the poison underpants, die by the poison underpants.
posted by adept256 at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 8:39 PM on April 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
USNI News: Russian Navy Confirms Severe Damage to Black Sea Cruiser Moskva, Crew Abandoned Ship
Ukrainian officials claimed that shore-based anti-ship guided missiles hit Moskva which had been operating from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea.
“It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!” Odesa governor Maksym Marchenko said in a Telegram message on Tuesday. “Neptune missiles guarding the Black Sea caused very serious damage to the Russian ship.”
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukrainian officials claimed that shore-based anti-ship guided missiles hit Moskva which had been operating from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea.
“It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!” Odesa governor Maksym Marchenko said in a Telegram message on Tuesday. “Neptune missiles guarding the Black Sea caused very serious damage to the Russian ship.”
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
Ukrainians have a track record using off-label applications for weapons systems.
"Anything's a SAM if you're Ukrainian enough." (Beau, observing an antitank missile used to take down a chopper.)
posted by ocschwar at 8:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [28 favorites]
Ukrainians have a track record using off-label applications for weapons systems.
"Anything's a SAM if you're Ukrainian enough." (Beau, observing an antitank missile used to take down a chopper.)
posted by ocschwar at 8:48 PM on April 13, 2022 [28 favorites]
The Cruiser Moskva sailed on the Black Sea
Swore that Ukraine would never be free
Neptune tickled her magazine from afar
While she was gawking at
Bayraktar
In Moskva Putin sits on his throne
took Crimea. can’t leave well enough alone
Bayraktar soaring, sails past the moon
while skimming the waves
streaks Neptune
posted by Reverend John at 9:00 PM on April 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
Last I heard, Turkey wasn't allowing Russian ships into the Black Sea. Does that mean they won't let them out either? 🤣
...
With 3 sunk so far, how many will be left to let out in a few weeks?
...
The Russian Black Sea fleet is down to about 19 ships at this point. The Moskva was critical to protecting other ships in the fleet from air attacks because it had advanced radars and anti-aircraft missiles.
That USNI article mentions that the only other two completed ships of its class (RTS Marshal Ustinov and RFS Varyag) are in the Med (where the USS Harry S. Truman and its battle group can keep an eye on them). So unless Turkey changes its policy, there isn't another ship available for the Black Sea Fleet to directly substitute for the Moskva.
Per its wiki article Moskva was the first ship built in its "Slava" class and was originally named Slava when launched from Mykolaiv in 1976. The uncompleted fourth full in the class is owned by Ukraine and named Ukrayina.
Slava, Ukraini!
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:13 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
...
With 3 sunk so far, how many will be left to let out in a few weeks?
...
The Russian Black Sea fleet is down to about 19 ships at this point. The Moskva was critical to protecting other ships in the fleet from air attacks because it had advanced radars and anti-aircraft missiles.
That USNI article mentions that the only other two completed ships of its class (RTS Marshal Ustinov and RFS Varyag) are in the Med (where the USS Harry S. Truman and its battle group can keep an eye on them). So unless Turkey changes its policy, there isn't another ship available for the Black Sea Fleet to directly substitute for the Moskva.
Per its wiki article Moskva was the first ship built in its "Slava" class and was originally named Slava when launched from Mykolaiv in 1976. The uncompleted fourth full in the class is owned by Ukraine and named Ukrayina.
Slava, Ukraini!
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:13 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
They are designed to target ships up to 5000 tonnes.
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
The UK did pledge to send Harpoon (over-the-horizon anti-ship) missiles a few days ago on Johnson's surprise trip to Kyiv; they can be fired from aircraft, ship or land battery. The US-sourced Harpoon has been around for a while, but has been updated repeatedly and is still in active service with multiple NATO countries, and carries a 221 KG warhead, as opposed to the 150 KG in the Neptune.
The plan was to help Ukraine break Russian dominance of the black sea, reduce the amount of missiles they're firing into Ukraine from their ships, as well as lower the risk of an amphibious landing in Odesa.
I'm sure it's entirely unrelated to the crippling of the flagship Moskva.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:25 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
That's the stat that jumped out at me when I looked up the Neptune missile system.
The UK did pledge to send Harpoon (over-the-horizon anti-ship) missiles a few days ago on Johnson's surprise trip to Kyiv; they can be fired from aircraft, ship or land battery. The US-sourced Harpoon has been around for a while, but has been updated repeatedly and is still in active service with multiple NATO countries, and carries a 221 KG warhead, as opposed to the 150 KG in the Neptune.
The plan was to help Ukraine break Russian dominance of the black sea, reduce the amount of missiles they're firing into Ukraine from their ships, as well as lower the risk of an amphibious landing in Odesa.
I'm sure it's entirely unrelated to the crippling of the flagship Moskva.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:25 PM on April 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
This is just to say
We have popped
your cruiser
the one full
of missiles
and which
you were probably
saving
for Odesa
Forgive us
it was so juicy
now sunk
and so cold
posted by Rumple at 11:07 PM on April 13, 2022 [39 favorites]
We have popped
your cruiser
the one full
of missiles
and which
you were probably
saving
for Odesa
Forgive us
it was so juicy
now sunk
and so cold
posted by Rumple at 11:07 PM on April 13, 2022 [39 favorites]
these two things cannot be true at once, and yet people seem to believe both:
1) sanctions dont work because they inflict pain on ordinary people and not the dictator or his goons
2) the dictator stays in power because ordinary people see no point in taking risks, or even thinking about politics, as long as the dictator is making their lives even marginally better
posted by wibari at 11:26 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
1) sanctions dont work because they inflict pain on ordinary people and not the dictator or his goons
2) the dictator stays in power because ordinary people see no point in taking risks, or even thinking about politics, as long as the dictator is making their lives even marginally better
posted by wibari at 11:26 PM on April 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
Oh man, if it turns out they timed the release of the go fuck yourself stamp with the attack on the ship in the stamp - epic troll. World historic troll. He's a comedian alright, he knows all about comedic timing and scripting. You glorious bastard! Wow. Just wow.
Just checked ebay - the stamp is going for 10$. I wish it was a fundraiser, it should be.
posted by adept256 at 11:44 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
Just checked ebay - the stamp is going for 10$. I wish it was a fundraiser, it should be.
posted by adept256 at 11:44 PM on April 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
It was great to wake up to this news. Thanks, all!
posted by Bella Donna at 11:51 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bella Donna at 11:51 PM on April 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Oh man, if it turns out they timed the release of the go fuck yourself stamp with the attack on the ship in the stamp - epic troll. World historic troll. He's a comedian alright, he knows all about comedic timing and scripting. You glorious bastard! Wow. Just wow.
I think a second edition is very much called for.
posted by rongorongo at 12:14 AM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think a second edition is very much called for.
posted by rongorongo at 12:14 AM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Somewhere in Ukraine, a farmer is busy welding floats to their tractor.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [32 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [32 favorites]
I think a second edition is very much called for.
I'm a fan of this suggested updated version of the stamp.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:44 AM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm a fan of this suggested updated version of the stamp.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:44 AM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
I dropped by the midnight volunteer shift at the train/bus station here (Germany), hundreds of refugees arriving daily still. Some seem to be holding up well, others sit in a corner and just want to be left alone. Volunteers are fewer (how many people can work in the daytime and spend the night helping out?), some look like they're in danger of a burn out — they don't want to go home and rest. Luckily there's some fresh support from young Ukrainians especially on the night and early morning shifts. Not much if any support from the government at this point which is frustrating. They seem to be exclusively interested in 'distributing people evenly' within Germany. There are enough people willing to take in refugees here, but people are forced to go further because an arbitrary quota has been exceeded.
Can't imagine what it looks like in Poland, but many Ukrainians are trying to head back to there especially ones who were sent to villages and towns deeper in western Germany.
posted by UN at 2:00 AM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
Can't imagine what it looks like in Poland, but many Ukrainians are trying to head back to there especially ones who were sent to villages and towns deeper in western Germany.
posted by UN at 2:00 AM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
O you who turn the wheel and look to windward,
Consider Moskva, who was once handsome and tall as you.
posted by SPrintF at 2:04 AM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
Consider Moskva, who was once handsome and tall as you.
posted by SPrintF at 2:04 AM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
Russian Artist Faces 10 Years in Prison for Protesting War on Price Tags. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 2:39 AM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
A St. Petersburg artist and musician faces up to 10 years in prison for spreading so-called “fake news” about Russia’s war in Ukraine on price tags at a local supermarket.The article links to the source of those price tags, the Feminist Anti-War Resistance Group.
Alexandra Skochilenko was detained Monday on suspicion of replacing price tags with information about the March 16 air strike on a Mariupol drama theater where civilians were sheltering. Kyiv accused Moscow of war crimes with the strike, while the Russian military blamed Ukrainian far-right militias for the attack.
“The Russian army bombed an art school in Mariupol where about 400 people were hiding from the shelling,” the supermarket price tag attributed to Skochilenko read.
Investigators accuse her of “placing fragments of paper containing deliberately false information about the use of the Russian Armed Forces in places designated for price tags.”
posted by Kattullus at 2:39 AM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
Like this
(Link to Twitter, Comic of tractor towing ship)
posted by 15L06 at 3:29 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
(Link to Twitter, Comic of tractor towing ship)
posted by 15L06 at 3:29 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
All those goods the Russian soldiers looted from the Kyiv axis?
Two thirds were stolen by other corrupt kleptos in transit.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:49 AM on April 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
Two thirds were stolen by other corrupt kleptos in transit.
45 out of 69 parcels that, according to the Data Base project, were sent from Mozyr by Russian servicemen through the SDEK service, have the statuses "not handed over" or "order not found".No honor among thieves.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:49 AM on April 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
This was a morning treat.
Revell Model: Russian cruiser Moskva
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 AM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
Revell Model: Russian cruiser Moskva
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 AM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
(Although we should probably note that it hasn't sunk; Russia's MoD claims it is under tow into port.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
We'll get pretty good answers as soon as the clouds over the Black Sea clear and the pretty hi-def satellite images come in.
posted by Harald74 at 5:37 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:37 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
The last time a capital ship at sea was taken out by coastal artillery? April 9th 1945 in the Drøbak Sound, the approach to Oslo. An obsolete coastal battery, relegated to training duties for recruits, manned by the same recruits and old officers brought out of retirement, managed to sink the Blücher, a then very modern German cruiser. So this type of thing does not happen often.
posted by Harald74 at 5:40 AM on April 14, 2022 [23 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:40 AM on April 14, 2022 [23 favorites]
(The CO, Col. Eriksen, had been instructed to fire warning shots at any approaching ships. He reasoned that both due to the age of his guns and the untrained nature of his crew that he would only manage to get off one salvo before receiving fire back. Further reasoning that the ships approaching in the middle of the night without their navigation lights on were probably up to no good, he gave the order to fire directly at the lead ship. Remember, this was before war was declared. Norway was neutral at the time. He then left the fire direction center and down to the gun battery, so that there could be no possible misunderstandings as to who was responsible for giving the orders. Quoted as saying "I'm either going to be a war hero or court martialled" he gave the order to fire directly to the gun crew. IMHO a fine example of leadership and taking responsibility.)
posted by Harald74 at 5:46 AM on April 14, 2022 [29 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:46 AM on April 14, 2022 [29 favorites]
the supposed #windsofchange FSB letters claimed there would be false flag attacks on Russian civilians
Maybe my expectations have been artificially lowered, but in that case I'd expect an attack on the town's Museum of Friendship of Peoples by helicopters departing the wrong direction.
Satellite imagery shows a rail spur there that comes fairly close to the border; and the tracks and depot are right up against housing (the English stop signs are kinda curious).
The last time a capital ship at sea was taken out by coastal artillery?
Are land-based anti-ship missiles considered coastal artillery for reporting purposes? They're a big part of China's strategy with the artificial islands if I understand it correctly. I don't think gun batteries are coming back.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:50 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Maybe my expectations have been artificially lowered, but in that case I'd expect an attack on the town's Museum of Friendship of Peoples by helicopters departing the wrong direction.
Satellite imagery shows a rail spur there that comes fairly close to the border; and the tracks and depot are right up against housing (the English stop signs are kinda curious).
The last time a capital ship at sea was taken out by coastal artillery?
Are land-based anti-ship missiles considered coastal artillery for reporting purposes? They're a big part of China's strategy with the artificial islands if I understand it correctly. I don't think gun batteries are coming back.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:50 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
The English language stop signs are one of the forms specified in the Vienna Convention - you can see this particular variant all over Europe, at least.
posted by Harald74 at 5:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Oh my heart. The warrior of light Twitter account is collecting and presenting children's artwork about the war.
THE WAR. THE VICTORY OF SPRING.
posted by vers at 6:43 AM on April 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
THE WAR. THE VICTORY OF SPRING.
posted by vers at 6:43 AM on April 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
Harald74: thanks for the link; very informative. Also explains why Australia's signs look so American.
I'm guessing there's no prospect of Canada joining the Vienna Convention unless Quebec gets a cutout for its “ARRÊT” signs.
posted by acb at 6:50 AM on April 14, 2022
I'm guessing there's no prospect of Canada joining the Vienna Convention unless Quebec gets a cutout for its “ARRÊT” signs.
posted by acb at 6:50 AM on April 14, 2022
According to the US Pentagon the Moskva hasn’t sunk but is badly damaged and being pulled by tugs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ukraine target those tugs.
posted by interogative mood at 7:16 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:16 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Harald74: April 9th, 1945
I know you know this and that it was a typo but my pedantry won’t allow me not to say that it was April 9th, 1940.
posted by Kattullus at 7:22 AM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
I know you know this and that it was a typo but my pedantry won’t allow me not to say that it was April 9th, 1940.
posted by Kattullus at 7:22 AM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
FPRI's Rob Lee on Twitter
The use of English isn't mandated, the shape is. IIRC, Russia was using STOP signs long before the convention. The Cyrillic "stop" is used for stop lines (I.e., "stop here".)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:52 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Ukrainian General Staff posted a photo of a damaged Russian military column reportedly from Russia's 201st Military Base in Tajikistan.unless Quebec gets a cutout for its “ARRÊT” signs.
https://facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/294011536245265
A team from Ukrainian SSO blew up the bridge as the Russian military column from the 201st Military Base was crossing it while headed to Izyum.
https://t.me/landforcesofukraine/1237
The use of English isn't mandated, the shape is. IIRC, Russia was using STOP signs long before the convention. The Cyrillic "stop" is used for stop lines (I.e., "stop here".)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:52 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
> sink the Blücher
Coincidentally, I was enjoying an appropriately apocalyptic song about this very event yesterday without realizing how appropriate it would be. As Norwegian black metal it will probably be to the taste of very few, but the whole album, Milorg, is a tribute to Norwegian resistance in WW2. Seems appropriate to the times, so I mention it should anyone be in the mood for angry music about a desperate fight against genocidal tyranny.
posted by jammer at 8:13 AM on April 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Coincidentally, I was enjoying an appropriately apocalyptic song about this very event yesterday without realizing how appropriate it would be. As Norwegian black metal it will probably be to the taste of very few, but the whole album, Milorg, is a tribute to Norwegian resistance in WW2. Seems appropriate to the times, so I mention it should anyone be in the mood for angry music about a desperate fight against genocidal tyranny.
posted by jammer at 8:13 AM on April 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Are land-based anti-ship missiles considered coastal artillery for reporting purposes? They're a big part of China's strategy with the artificial islands if I understand it correctly. I don't think gun batteries are coming back.
Possibly, but I can literally only find one previous example of a land-based missile sinking a ship, and that's the Sveti Vlaho in 1991, part of the Croatian navy in the Croatian war of independence - previously an Italian smuggling runabout, it was fitted with 6" steel plate and a bren machine gun for blockade running into Dubrovnik. It was sunk with a 9K11 Malyutka anti-tank missile. Definitely not a capital ship though!
All other missiles that have sunk warships I can find were launched by aircraft or warship, and the most recent of those (excluding tests and this war) was the IRIS Sahand sunk by multiple US missile hits as part of Operation Praying Mantis in 1988; the U.S. Navy's first exchange of anti-ship missiles with opposing ships and the only occasion since World War II where the US Navy sank a major surface combatant.
Though are we counting the Saratov landing ship, sunk while docked, possibly by a Ukrainian ballistic missile? There's also been a number of attacks on civilian vessels.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Possibly, but I can literally only find one previous example of a land-based missile sinking a ship, and that's the Sveti Vlaho in 1991, part of the Croatian navy in the Croatian war of independence - previously an Italian smuggling runabout, it was fitted with 6" steel plate and a bren machine gun for blockade running into Dubrovnik. It was sunk with a 9K11 Malyutka anti-tank missile. Definitely not a capital ship though!
All other missiles that have sunk warships I can find were launched by aircraft or warship, and the most recent of those (excluding tests and this war) was the IRIS Sahand sunk by multiple US missile hits as part of Operation Praying Mantis in 1988; the U.S. Navy's first exchange of anti-ship missiles with opposing ships and the only occasion since World War II where the US Navy sank a major surface combatant.
Though are we counting the Saratov landing ship, sunk while docked, possibly by a Ukrainian ballistic missile? There's also been a number of attacks on civilian vessels.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:30 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Interesting! Thanks for looking into it. Here's a RAND abstract of an article about Pacific ASM scenarios. And one on China's HQ-9 (SAMs not ASMs) deployment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:40 AM on April 14, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:40 AM on April 14, 2022
The Price of War - Can Russia afford a long conflict? - deep dive into the economics from Perun. TLDR "West rich, Russia not rich but Russia has some tools to 'patch' things in the short term... but it is a question of how much the West is willing to ramp up support".
posted by rongorongo at 9:22 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 9:22 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
From The Guardian: Medvedev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, explicitly raised the nuclear threat, saying Finnish and Swedish Nato membership would mean there could be “no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic: the balance must be restored”.
Russia had “not taken such measures, and was not going to”, he said. “But if our hand is forced, well … take note it wasn’t us who proposed this.” Russia borders the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia, and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, said Moscow would take “the security and defence measures that we will deem necessary” if Sweden and Finland join Nato, adding that the move would “seriously worsen the military situation” and lead to “the most undesirable consequences”.
So that’s fun for those of us in Finland and, in my case, Sweden. Contrary to earlier reports in this thread, Sweden at least has not made a decision about Nato, not officially. But it will almost certainly follow Finland if Finland applies for membership. That fucking Putin.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:21 AM on April 14, 2022 [18 favorites]
Russia had “not taken such measures, and was not going to”, he said. “But if our hand is forced, well … take note it wasn’t us who proposed this.” Russia borders the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia, and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, said Moscow would take “the security and defence measures that we will deem necessary” if Sweden and Finland join Nato, adding that the move would “seriously worsen the military situation” and lead to “the most undesirable consequences”.
So that’s fun for those of us in Finland and, in my case, Sweden. Contrary to earlier reports in this thread, Sweden at least has not made a decision about Nato, not officially. But it will almost certainly follow Finland if Finland applies for membership. That fucking Putin.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:21 AM on April 14, 2022 [18 favorites]
As if Kaliningrad wasn't already bristling with nukes.
posted by acb at 10:37 AM on April 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 10:37 AM on April 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
Well see, the sub pens aren't techincally in the city.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:41 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:41 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
And as far as ASMs go, though also not a sinking there was the Exocet attack on the Stark.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:52 AM on April 14, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:52 AM on April 14, 2022
The War Zone is posting updates in their article: Russia’s Black Sea Flagship Moskva Has Exploded Off Ukraine (Updated) – Russia acknowledged an explosion aboard the cruiser Moskva hours after Ukraine claimed to have struck it., Joseph Trevithick & Tyler Rogoway, Apr 14, 2022. Their comments section is worth a read also.
posted by cenoxo at 10:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by cenoxo at 10:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
A moment of levity: Activists projected a Ukrainian flag on the walls of the Russian Embassy in D.C., and embassy staffers tried to block it with spotlights (that didn't go well).
And then someone added audio.
posted by vers at 10:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
And then someone added audio.
posted by vers at 10:59 AM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
And on the information wars front, Wired has a very good article, Russia Is Leaking Data Like a Sieve.
I expect RU war criminals to be facing trials for decades.
posted by vers at 11:01 AM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
I expect RU war criminals to be facing trials for decades.
posted by vers at 11:01 AM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Sweden at least has not made a decision about Nato
But the Social Democrat prime minister indicating a goal of joining NATO in a matter of weeks is a monumental shift in policy for Sweden's largest party. I scoffed at the proposals from outsiders of Sweden joining a military alliance at the beginning of this conflict but here we are and I certainly don't feel safer for it. Friends are spending the long Easter holiday on Gotland and I am nervous for them.
posted by St. Oops at 11:04 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
But the Social Democrat prime minister indicating a goal of joining NATO in a matter of weeks is a monumental shift in policy for Sweden's largest party. I scoffed at the proposals from outsiders of Sweden joining a military alliance at the beginning of this conflict but here we are and I certainly don't feel safer for it. Friends are spending the long Easter holiday on Gotland and I am nervous for them.
posted by St. Oops at 11:04 AM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
And it's an election year in Sweden so that plays into this as well. The far right party (with shady Russian connections natch) has shifted its stance on NATO (to positive on joining) too.
posted by St. Oops at 11:06 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 11:06 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ukraine target those tugs.
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
posted by acb at 11:09 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
posted by acb at 11:09 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ukraine target those tugs.
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
Lot less armor on the tugs, and if you can stop the warship, you can hit it again later.
posted by Etrigan at 11:42 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
Lot less armor on the tugs, and if you can stop the warship, you can hit it again later.
posted by Etrigan at 11:42 AM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
No need to quarrel, there are more than enough targets to go around with the air cover disabled
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:50 AM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:50 AM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
I imagine that sinking the Moskva should be an order of magnitude cheaper than disabling it was, given that one could in theory get up close and just drop a dumb impact-triggered high-explosive bomb on it like it's the 1940s again.
posted by acb at 12:04 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 12:04 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Standoff weapons will remain cheaper than risking scant planes and pilots. Smaller ships still have at least some close range defenses.
I hope they get the sucker before it gets back to port one way or another.
@SubBrief has his video up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:12 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I hope they get the sucker before it gets back to port one way or another.
@SubBrief has his video up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:12 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Does disabling the ship drag more Russian resources into its ongoing defense, rescue, and repair than simply sinking it though? Kind of like the theory about wounding soldiers so that other soldiers need to take time to evacuate and care for them etc.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:17 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:17 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ukraine target those tugs.
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
Don't discount the importance of fleet tugs to the Russian navy.
posted by nathan_teske at 12:19 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
N tugs would take N missiles to sink. Lobbing just one missile at the immobilised warship, aimed so as to finally sink it, would achieve the goal more efficiently.
Don't discount the importance of fleet tugs to the Russian navy.
posted by nathan_teske at 12:19 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
According to multiple sources, the Moskva has sunk today.
posted by vers at 1:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by vers at 1:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
BBC just reported the Moskva has sunk. Doesn't appear on their site yet.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:13 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:13 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Renewed chatter that Shoigu has had a heart attack has been going on all day but now Bill Browder is retweeting it. It's been framed as suspicious, but on the other hand losing a flagship can't be good for your blood pressure. Sourcing is thin, but quite a day or two if true.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:16 PM on April 14, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:16 PM on April 14, 2022
FT's max seddon on Twitter
Russia’s defense ministry admits the Moskva cruiser, the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, has sunk.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:18 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
They claim there was an explosion from a munitions accident on board and it sank in a storm.
Ukraine says it managed to sink the ship in a missile strike.
Oryx: Ukraine is now in possession of more Slava class guided missile cruisers in the Black Sea (1) than Russia (0).
[Pics of the incomplete fourth ship.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:22 PM on April 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
[Pics of the incomplete fourth ship.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:22 PM on April 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Defence Editor at @TheEconomist :
Western official on the Moskva incident: "I can't definitively tell you exactly what has happened. But I am not aware previously of a fire on board a capital warship, which would lead to the ammunition magazine exploding...The claim by Ukrainian forces is credible"posted by gwint at 1:24 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
And Russia MoD continuing to claim it was a munitions accident somehow make them look... better??! Seriously, their disinformation is so consistently off-kilter and out of whack, it'd be laughable in another situation.
posted by vers at 1:25 PM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by vers at 1:25 PM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
Shoigu had another heart attack? Or is that still referring to the first one? That's been a few weeks now right?
Putin is saving a war crimes tribunal a lot of work here. Wonder how many of these embezzling generals are actually going to prison vs being thrown out of windows or whatever.
posted by Ansible at 1:27 PM on April 14, 2022
Putin is saving a war crimes tribunal a lot of work here. Wonder how many of these embezzling generals are actually going to prison vs being thrown out of windows or whatever.
posted by Ansible at 1:27 PM on April 14, 2022
Russia’s defense ministry admits the Moskva cruiser, the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, has sunk.
HA HA
- Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson
posted by adept256 at 1:28 PM on April 14, 2022 [19 favorites]
HA HA
- Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson
posted by adept256 at 1:28 PM on April 14, 2022 [19 favorites]
Or is that still referring to the first one?
New rumors, but go back to one guy so far. But Browder isn't a lightweight, Sergei Magnitsky (of the Magnitsky Act) was his lawyer, and he picked it up.
Incompetence is easier to admit to the populace than this kind of defeat. Blame it on corruption, spies, traitors; discipline some flunkies. The absurdity won't be as apparent internally, although you'd hope this might start to raise some doubts.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:28 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
New rumors, but go back to one guy so far. But Browder isn't a lightweight, Sergei Magnitsky (of the Magnitsky Act) was his lawyer, and he picked it up.
Incompetence is easier to admit to the populace than this kind of defeat. Blame it on corruption, spies, traitors; discipline some flunkies. The absurdity won't be as apparent internally, although you'd hope this might start to raise some doubts.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:28 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's a twitter thread by @ChrisO, unrolled for your convenience, speculating on how they may have pulled off the strike. No idea about credentials on the author, but it seems like reasonable speculation, if nothing else.
Mostly citing it for this bit:
If she's been sunk, the Moskva will be the biggest warship lost since WW2: at 12,490 tons she's bigger than Argentina's General Belgrano, sunk by the Royal Navy in 1982.
posted by jammer at 1:38 PM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
Mostly citing it for this bit:
If she's been sunk, the Moskva will be the biggest warship lost since WW2: at 12,490 tons she's bigger than Argentina's General Belgrano, sunk by the Royal Navy in 1982.
posted by jammer at 1:38 PM on April 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
Ukrainian farmer removes floats from their tractor, starts rigging up a snorkel.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:40 PM on April 14, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 1:40 PM on April 14, 2022 [18 favorites]
Hey, it's not my fault.
posted by Flunkie at 1:41 PM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 1:41 PM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
Retired navy commander on Polish tv: Russians should be happy because after the rocket strike their ship finally has modern weapons on board.
(From twitter: so idi nahui means bottom of the Black Sea, check.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:53 PM on April 14, 2022 [23 favorites]
(From twitter: so idi nahui means bottom of the Black Sea, check.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:53 PM on April 14, 2022 [23 favorites]
At least the Russian story of an accident is consistent with the rest of their explanations of events in this war: the Ukrainians are bombing their own cities and the Russians are blowing up their own ships.
posted by Reverend John at 1:53 PM on April 14, 2022 [28 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 1:53 PM on April 14, 2022 [28 favorites]
"In general, the [Slava-class] ships contain a great deal of flammable material and appear to lack adequate damage-control features."
Ukraine successfully burns Moskva.
Corporal Frisk, Finnish blogger in reserve, defence and national security.
posted by Kabanos at 1:55 PM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine successfully burns Moskva.
Corporal Frisk, Finnish blogger in reserve, defence and national security.
posted by Kabanos at 1:55 PM on April 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Well, if it was an accident, there's no grounds to retaliate against Ukraine!
posted by bink at 2:05 PM on April 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by bink at 2:05 PM on April 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
Or as the meme goes, “HEROIC CRUISER MOSKVA PROMOTED TO SUBMARINE”
posted by acb at 2:16 PM on April 14, 2022 [40 favorites]
posted by acb at 2:16 PM on April 14, 2022 [40 favorites]
And hey, success -- the fire's out!
I'm curious about a couple things and not seeing much info yet. How many survivors? There were reportedly almost 600 on board, early info said 50-ish picked up by a possibly Turkish ship, and then nothing further.
Also wondering if there's classified intelligence aboard that wasn't scrambled or taken in evacuation. One side, the other, or both might try to go after that? No idea what depth the sea floor is there.
posted by vers at 2:23 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm curious about a couple things and not seeing much info yet. How many survivors? There were reportedly almost 600 on board, early info said 50-ish picked up by a possibly Turkish ship, and then nothing further.
Also wondering if there's classified intelligence aboard that wasn't scrambled or taken in evacuation. One side, the other, or both might try to go after that? No idea what depth the sea floor is there.
posted by vers at 2:23 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Today will be remembered in the Annals of the Meme Wars
Most presidents have war rooms, but Zelenskyy has a killer writers room.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:24 PM on April 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
Most presidents have war rooms, but Zelenskyy has a killer writers room.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:24 PM on April 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
Yes, the combination of stormy seas + explosion on ship + night doesn’t really add up to successful evacuation of all crew.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 2:30 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 2:30 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also wondering if there's classified intelligence aboard that wasn't scrambled or taken in evacuation. One side, the other, or both might try to go after that?
Hopefully Russia will have to use up extensive resources to guard it. I dislike Elon Musk but wonder if he still has that Thai rescue submarine thing laying around. That would be a pretty amazing troll to drop it into the Black Sea and make Russia chase it around (presumably in a path that draws a penis when viewed on a map)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:31 PM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Hopefully Russia will have to use up extensive resources to guard it. I dislike Elon Musk but wonder if he still has that Thai rescue submarine thing laying around. That would be a pretty amazing troll to drop it into the Black Sea and make Russia chase it around (presumably in a path that draws a penis when viewed on a map)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:31 PM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Sea floor could be as shallow as 40 to 50 meters where it sank according to some very basic depth charts, probably less than 100 given the general position of other vessels in the area believed to have come to its aid.
If a Turkish ship picked up the bulk of the surviving crew, that's going to keep the intel folks busy enough. One wonders what happens to surviving sailors either way if there's going to be a domestic coverup. I wonder if any will defect.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:48 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
If a Turkish ship picked up the bulk of the surviving crew, that's going to keep the intel folks busy enough. One wonders what happens to surviving sailors either way if there's going to be a domestic coverup. I wonder if any will defect.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:48 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Selo i Ludy's current livestream from the basement in Kharkiv (going on right now) is entitled "Russian warship! Go f**k yourself!"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:04 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:04 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russian ships called Moskva and built in Mykolaiv should probably just stay away from Odesa.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:09 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:09 PM on April 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Defect is an interesting word given that I haven't heard it used in the context of "leaving Russia for a Western Country" since the end of the cold war.
posted by hippybear at 3:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 3:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Over at r/Ukraine, a user unearthed an old article dated Feb 27, 2020 from TASS (translated):
Link.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:39 PM on April 14, 2022 [21 favorites]
A piece of the Lord's Cross will be stored on the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet“This relic was in a Catholic Church, was acquired by Moscow patrons” is doing some heavy lifting here.
SEVASTOPOL, February 26. 2020/TASS/. The Christian relic - a particle of the Cross of the Lord - will be stored on the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet - the missile cruiser "Moscow". This was told to TASS by the dean of the Sevastopol district of the Russian Orthodox Church, Archpriest Sergei Khalyuta.
He explained that a relic is a piece of wood just a few millimeters in size. It is located inside a metal cross of the XIX century, and it, in turn, is stored in a special ark.
"This relic was in a Catholic church, was acquired by Moscow patrons who wished to remain anonymous, and it was their will that was to transfer it to the Navy. The cruiser "Moscow" has a ship's temple where services are held," Halyuta added
Link.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:39 PM on April 14, 2022 [21 favorites]
oh, no - they lost jesus' toothpick from the last supper
posted by pyramid termite at 3:56 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 3:56 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
Another big fire in Belogorod tonight.
Ukrainians might be getting braver about taking the war back to Russia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:45 PM on April 14, 2022
Ukrainians might be getting braver about taking the war back to Russia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:45 PM on April 14, 2022
Forbes: Ukraine May Get U.S. MQ-9 Reaper Strike Drones
Sounds like 30 day timeframe if approved.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:47 PM on April 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ukraine is in talks to purchase American-made heavy attack drones that could shift the balance of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ukrainian officials met in Washington last week with General Atomics, the California-based manufacturer of military drones, including the MQ-9 Reaper, the U.S. Air Force’s primary reconnaissance and strike UAV. Though the U.S. government would have to approve any sale, it is unlikely that such talks between Ukraine and a U.S. defense contractor would have happened without a green light from the Biden administration.
Sounds like 30 day timeframe if approved.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:47 PM on April 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
I mean, i just learned that the ship was originally named Slava, and unless it's a captured ship in war, it's bad luck to rename a ship because the original name is noted in Neptune's ledger and a name change of this kind is seen as tempting fate since it's read as the ship owners are trying to pull a fast one behind the back of the gods.
And we know the name of the missile, so dramatic irony of the 2020s continues as scheduled apparently.
Anyway, Meduza: ‘I watched the news and didn’t understand a thing. Why were we fighting?’ What Russians who were previously ‘not interested in politics’ think about the war against Ukraine: For many Russians, life has changed radically because of Moscow’s decision to wage an all-out war against Ukraine. As a result, some Russians who had never given politics a second thought are now closely following the news and have begun to carefully criticize the government, quit their jobs in protest, and even attend anti-war rallies. Meduza shares some of their stories here.
posted by cendawanita at 5:49 PM on April 14, 2022 [33 favorites]
And we know the name of the missile, so dramatic irony of the 2020s continues as scheduled apparently.
Anyway, Meduza: ‘I watched the news and didn’t understand a thing. Why were we fighting?’ What Russians who were previously ‘not interested in politics’ think about the war against Ukraine: For many Russians, life has changed radically because of Moscow’s decision to wage an all-out war against Ukraine. As a result, some Russians who had never given politics a second thought are now closely following the news and have begun to carefully criticize the government, quit their jobs in protest, and even attend anti-war rallies. Meduza shares some of their stories here.
posted by cendawanita at 5:49 PM on April 14, 2022 [33 favorites]
From Beau of the 5th Column:
TLDW: FSB/KGB officers had collected money from the Kremlin to fund a 5th column in Ukraine, and siphoned the whole amount for themselves. Moscow invaded expecting support from this non-existent 5th column, particularly at Kyiv's airport in the first night of the war.
Unverifiable rumor that will stay unverifiable till doom's day. But it explains the 150 KGB officers who got purged. (And the other bonkers operational decisions the Russian army made. )
posted by ocschwar at 5:55 PM on April 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
TLDW: FSB/KGB officers had collected money from the Kremlin to fund a 5th column in Ukraine, and siphoned the whole amount for themselves. Moscow invaded expecting support from this non-existent 5th column, particularly at Kyiv's airport in the first night of the war.
Unverifiable rumor that will stay unverifiable till doom's day. But it explains the 150 KGB officers who got purged. (And the other bonkers operational decisions the Russian army made. )
posted by ocschwar at 5:55 PM on April 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
As a result, some Russians who had never given politics a second thought are now closely following the news
"If you're not turned onto politics, politics will turn on you."
posted by Slothrup at 6:03 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
"If you're not turned onto politics, politics will turn on you."
posted by Slothrup at 6:03 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Same thing we say at work. If you think you "don't play politics", you still are, AND you're losing.
posted by ctmf at 6:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 6:10 PM on April 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
I found this article in Foreign Affairs, by Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov, very interesting and insightful:
Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?
What It Would Take for a Coup by Kremlin Insiders</a
April 11, 2022
Quote:
(...) Although Putin has long counted on the steadfast support of his military and security services, the war in Ukraine suggests that there may be limits to how far this can go. The increasingly visible tensions between him and senior members of his security elite suggest that Putin may be more paranoid than ever about possible challenges to his rule. On the other hand, such discord may also indicate that at least some members of his inner circle are displeased with the course he has set. And since Putin’s chosen way of dealing with problems—including the bad intelligence and bad military performance in Ukraine—is to blame the siloviki, they don’t feel particularly encouraged to give him an accurate picture about what is happening. They also don’t want to stick their necks out.
(...)
ANDREI SOLDATOV is an investigative journalist and Co-Founder and Editor of Agentura.ru, a watchdog of the Russian secret services’ activities. He is a co-author, with Irina Borogan, of The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad.
IRINA BOROGAN is an investigative journalist and Co-Founder and Deputy Editor of Agentura.ru. She is a co-author, with Andrei Soldatov, of The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad.
(I know both of them in real life, they have done this work for many years and i have no doubt are a reliable source of facts and analysis)
posted by 15L06 at 6:31 PM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?
What It Would Take for a Coup by Kremlin Insiders</a
April 11, 2022
Quote:
(...) Although Putin has long counted on the steadfast support of his military and security services, the war in Ukraine suggests that there may be limits to how far this can go. The increasingly visible tensions between him and senior members of his security elite suggest that Putin may be more paranoid than ever about possible challenges to his rule. On the other hand, such discord may also indicate that at least some members of his inner circle are displeased with the course he has set. And since Putin’s chosen way of dealing with problems—including the bad intelligence and bad military performance in Ukraine—is to blame the siloviki, they don’t feel particularly encouraged to give him an accurate picture about what is happening. They also don’t want to stick their necks out.
(...)
ANDREI SOLDATOV is an investigative journalist and Co-Founder and Editor of Agentura.ru, a watchdog of the Russian secret services’ activities. He is a co-author, with Irina Borogan, of The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad.
IRINA BOROGAN is an investigative journalist and Co-Founder and Deputy Editor of Agentura.ru. She is a co-author, with Andrei Soldatov, of The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad.
(I know both of them in real life, they have done this work for many years and i have no doubt are a reliable source of facts and analysis)
posted by 15L06 at 6:31 PM on April 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
And another essay which i found good good for thought, published by the European Journal of international Law, by Patryk I. Labuda:
On Eastern Europe, ‘Whataboutism’ and ‘West(s)plaining’: Some Thoughts on International Lawyers’ Responses to Ukraine
12 April 2022
Quote:
The invasion of Ukraine has spawned a flurry of commentary from international lawyers. Much of it has focused on traditional doctrinal disputes, such as the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction in Ukraine or interpretation of international humanitarian law. But there have also been voices that situate the Ukraine war and international legal responses thereto in a wider context, including by criticising the role of human rights in inciting the war, the West’s neglect of Global South crises, or international law’s Euro-centrism. While these critiques are well-intentioned, I want to offer some critical thoughts on these critical (and nominally progressive) responses – a critique of the critique, if you will. I argue that these calls for introspection on the part of some Western and Global South international lawyers inadvertently reproduce a Western-centric vision of the world, and international law’s role therein, while effacing the voices of Ukrainians who, in this case, are the paradigmatic case of a subaltern people responding to imperialist aggression, including through the emancipatory language of international law. By discounting this reality, some critiques may be doing actual harm to Ukraine, which is hard to reconcile with any progressive vision of international law. (...)
posted by 15L06 at 6:40 PM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
On Eastern Europe, ‘Whataboutism’ and ‘West(s)plaining’: Some Thoughts on International Lawyers’ Responses to Ukraine
12 April 2022
Quote:
The invasion of Ukraine has spawned a flurry of commentary from international lawyers. Much of it has focused on traditional doctrinal disputes, such as the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction in Ukraine or interpretation of international humanitarian law. But there have also been voices that situate the Ukraine war and international legal responses thereto in a wider context, including by criticising the role of human rights in inciting the war, the West’s neglect of Global South crises, or international law’s Euro-centrism. While these critiques are well-intentioned, I want to offer some critical thoughts on these critical (and nominally progressive) responses – a critique of the critique, if you will. I argue that these calls for introspection on the part of some Western and Global South international lawyers inadvertently reproduce a Western-centric vision of the world, and international law’s role therein, while effacing the voices of Ukrainians who, in this case, are the paradigmatic case of a subaltern people responding to imperialist aggression, including through the emancipatory language of international law. By discounting this reality, some critiques may be doing actual harm to Ukraine, which is hard to reconcile with any progressive vision of international law. (...)
posted by 15L06 at 6:40 PM on April 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Ukrainian trident:
So there's a little poetic justice that invaders on the sea got their shit fucked up by Neptun.
posted by adept256 at 7:01 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
The official coat of arms of Ukraine is a gold trident on an azure background (see Coat of arms of Ukraine of 1992). As a state emblem the trident dates back to Kyivan Rus’, when it was the coat of arms of the Riurykide dynasty. There are various theories about its origins and meaning. A trident was the symbol of Poseidon, the sea god of Greek mythology. It has been found in different societies, such as the Bosporan Kingdom and the Pontic Kingdom, the Greek colonies on the Black Sea (see Ancient states on the northern Black Sea coast), Byzantium, Scandinavia, and Sarmatia, and has been used in various ways: as a religious and military emblem, a heraldic symbol, a state emblem, a monogram, and simply a decorative ornament. The oldest examples of the trident discovered by archeologists on Ukrainian territory date back to the 1st century AD. At that time the trident probably served as a symbol of power in one of the tribes that later became part of the Ukrainian people. The trident was stamped on the gold and silver coins issued by Prince Volodymyr the Great (980–1015) (see Figure 1), who perhaps inherited the symbol from his ancestors (such as Sviatoslav I Ihorovych, see Figure 2) as a dynastic coat of arms and passed it on to his sons, Sviatopolk I (1015–19) and Yaroslav the Wise (1019–54) (see Figure 3). Iziaslav Yaroslavych (1054–78), Sviatopolk II Iziaslavych (1093–1113), and Lev Danylovych (1264–1301) used the bident as their coat of arms. Although the trident continued to be used by some ruling families as a dynastic coat of arms until the 15th century, it was replaced as a state emblem in the 12th century with Saint Michael the Archangel. The trident was also used as a religious symbol in Ukrainian folklore and church heraldry.The association with the trident and Ukraine goes back a long way, almost 2000 years. So it's no mistake that they named their missile Neptun(e) which is of course the Roman counterpart of Poseiden, who rules the sea with a trident.
So there's a little poetic justice that invaders on the sea got their shit fucked up by Neptun.
posted by adept256 at 7:01 PM on April 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Daily Beast's Julia Davis on Twitter
Includes some must-see clips of Russian pundits(?) "What are we waging again?"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:35 PM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Kyiv sank 'Moscow' and the Russians are furious. In response to the sinking of the warship 'Moskva,' state TV pundits and hosts propose bombing Kyiv, destroying Ukraine's railways and making it impossible for any world leaders to visit in the future.
Includes some must-see clips of Russian pundits(?) "What are we waging again?"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:35 PM on April 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
No idea how much influence the show in the clip in ChurchHatesTucker's link has (it's, uh, not very well organized or polished), but the fact that at least some media in Russia are laying the groundwork for getting people there to accept being in a WW3 is certainly worrisome.
posted by eviemath at 8:48 PM on April 14, 2022
posted by eviemath at 8:48 PM on April 14, 2022
“No idea how much influence the show in the clip in ChurchHatesTucker's link has (it's, uh, not very well organized or polished)...”
The "look" is a cultural thing, I think — a very BLING but professional presentation.
That's Olga Skabeyeva hosting a talk show on Russia's most popular 24-hour news channel, Russia-1. It's the main source of news for ordinary Russians.
The clip is via Julia Davis, who monitors Russian media.
I can't identify the particularly unhinged older man. It's amusing that he thinks that Russia could just bomb Kyiv to send a message as if it hasn't already attempted to do so.
From my American perspective, I'm reminded of the majority American view that there's basically nothing the military couldn't do if uninhibited — a view that's quite mistaken for various reasons. And the US military is enormously more powerful and more ready than Russia's. This is an example of Russia's widespread but delusional belief that it's still a superpower. Only in the sense of it's nuclear arsenal, perhaps. Certainly not by any other measure, and by a large margin.
That it's untrue is arguably as ominous as if it weren't, if not more so.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:48 PM on April 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
The "look" is a cultural thing, I think — a very BLING but professional presentation.
That's Olga Skabeyeva hosting a talk show on Russia's most popular 24-hour news channel, Russia-1. It's the main source of news for ordinary Russians.
The clip is via Julia Davis, who monitors Russian media.
I can't identify the particularly unhinged older man. It's amusing that he thinks that Russia could just bomb Kyiv to send a message as if it hasn't already attempted to do so.
From my American perspective, I'm reminded of the majority American view that there's basically nothing the military couldn't do if uninhibited — a view that's quite mistaken for various reasons. And the US military is enormously more powerful and more ready than Russia's. This is an example of Russia's widespread but delusional belief that it's still a superpower. Only in the sense of it's nuclear arsenal, perhaps. Certainly not by any other measure, and by a large margin.
That it's untrue is arguably as ominous as if it weren't, if not more so.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:48 PM on April 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
From the very first day, I wanted this horror to stop so that Ukrainians wouldn’t suffer. I still don’t understand why my country is causing them so much suffering. At first, I was confused. But then, when I realized that this war is unnecessary, I got angry. At Russia, at our government. It’s painful for me to acknowledge that it was decided for me that we would go kill our neighbors, that somebody is destroying their lives in my name.
Thanks for linking the Meduza article, cendawanita. It was an interesting mix of very human responses from different folks.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:42 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Thanks for linking the Meduza article, cendawanita. It was an interesting mix of very human responses from different folks.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:42 PM on April 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
He's calling for the Special Operation to be upgraded to a War. Maybe that's acceptable.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:00 AM on April 15, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 12:00 AM on April 15, 2022
The state of the special operation war is sinking in, live on TV. That video clip shows that the propagandists don't have an answer for Moskva. The cries of 'someone do something' and question of a 'full mobilization' come across as hopelessly inadequate, naive and weak. Putin's cult demands a raging response — what if he can't deliver?
posted by UN at 12:04 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by UN at 12:04 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Watching the videoclip, one wonders wether they are truly ignorant of the fact that the Russian army already attacked Kyiv and were kicked out, or if this is a propaganda set-up intended to legitimize the shift to "war" from "special operation". Now, Putin can come out and, with regret, claim that the evil Ukrainians shot down the nice and peaceful flagship with no good reason, so Russia has to prepare for war.
It's hard to imagine how it is to live in a society where nothing is true, and you can't even guess if something is just stupid or it is a deliberate lie.
posted by mumimor at 3:31 AM on April 15, 2022 [11 favorites]
It's hard to imagine how it is to live in a society where nothing is true, and you can't even guess if something is just stupid or it is a deliberate lie.
posted by mumimor at 3:31 AM on April 15, 2022 [11 favorites]
Out of solidarity with the Moskva, or simply not wanting to go to war?
A Mi-8 helicopter overturned at a training helicopter base in Saratov, injuring one person. This was reported by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Saratov Region.
"In the village of Sokolovy (training helicopter base) in Saratov, when the Mi-8 helicopter belonging to the Russian Ministry of Defence was taking off, it tipped on its side. One person was injured as a result, there were no fatalities," the report reads.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
(Saratov is some 800km east of Kharkiv, on the Volga)
posted by Stoneshop at 3:36 AM on April 15, 2022
A Mi-8 helicopter overturned at a training helicopter base in Saratov, injuring one person. This was reported by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Saratov Region.
"In the village of Sokolovy (training helicopter base) in Saratov, when the Mi-8 helicopter belonging to the Russian Ministry of Defence was taking off, it tipped on its side. One person was injured as a result, there were no fatalities," the report reads.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
(Saratov is some 800km east of Kharkiv, on the Volga)
posted by Stoneshop at 3:36 AM on April 15, 2022
It's hard to imagine how it is to live in a society where nothing is true, and you can't even guess if something is just stupid or it is a deliberate lie.
Not sure if this was meant to be sarcasm or not, but certainly in the US and other countries with a popular far-right reactionary party and lockstep propaganda media, it is not hard to imagine at all.
posted by rikschell at 5:01 AM on April 15, 2022 [26 favorites]
Not sure if this was meant to be sarcasm or not, but certainly in the US and other countries with a popular far-right reactionary party and lockstep propaganda media, it is not hard to imagine at all.
posted by rikschell at 5:01 AM on April 15, 2022 [26 favorites]
Also, Russia demands US and NATO stop arming Ukraine.
The WaPo prints informed speculation that Russia might extend attacks on weapon delivery outside Ukraine, which could end up triggering Article 5 and massively escalate the war.
posted by rikschell at 5:05 AM on April 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
The WaPo prints informed speculation that Russia might extend attacks on weapon delivery outside Ukraine, which could end up triggering Article 5 and massively escalate the war.
posted by rikschell at 5:05 AM on April 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile, British diplomats are apparently scrambling to determine the fate of a British volunteer soldier captured by Russian forces.
Perhaps Britain should offer to trade, say, Julian Assange or George Galloway for him?
posted by acb at 6:11 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Perhaps Britain should offer to trade, say, Julian Assange or George Galloway for him?
posted by acb at 6:11 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Also, Russia demands US and NATO stop arming Ukraine.
Hey, Ukraine sank the Moskva with its very own missile.
But this demand is a sign of weakness, not strength. It's an admission that Russia is losing.
If Putin doesn't believe Russia is losing the war, there's no reason (aside from belligerence) to make this demand. But if he needs the flow of Western arms to stop, because he's losing to Ukraine, he can't believe he can take on NATO.
posted by Gelatin at 6:16 AM on April 15, 2022 [18 favorites]
Hey, Ukraine sank the Moskva with its very own missile.
But this demand is a sign of weakness, not strength. It's an admission that Russia is losing.
If Putin doesn't believe Russia is losing the war, there's no reason (aside from belligerence) to make this demand. But if he needs the flow of Western arms to stop, because he's losing to Ukraine, he can't believe he can take on NATO.
posted by Gelatin at 6:16 AM on April 15, 2022 [18 favorites]
So, wait, that clip from Julia Davis, I feel like I’m missing a step. Does this mean Russia has officially claimed the Moskva was sunk by Ukraine? Last I heard, the fires were still an accident.
That’s a big admission.
posted by Quasirandom at 6:52 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
That’s a big admission.
posted by Quasirandom at 6:52 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kyiv Independent's Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 on Twitter
It was a series of clips, so the whiplash was likely more pronounced, but yeah. 'Moskva caught fire by itself and we must retaliate against Kyiv!'
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:00 AM on April 15, 2022 [10 favorites]
In Russia, still not a single word on how many Moskva crew members survived or were killed.So, wait, that clip from Julia Davis, I feel like I’m missing a step.
The Black Sea fleet flagship, a giant missile cruiser, was just set on fire *for no reason*, then she exploded, then she sank.
Over 500 crew members — absolutely not a single word.
It was a series of clips, so the whiplash was likely more pronounced, but yeah. 'Moskva caught fire by itself and we must retaliate against Kyiv!'
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:00 AM on April 15, 2022 [10 favorites]
Things are going so well that Russia's next special operation has already been planned: bulldoze the gravestones of the Katyn victims.
posted by Etrigan at 7:28 AM on April 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 7:28 AM on April 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
I can't identify the particularly unhinged older man.
Per comments elsewhere, it's allegedly Putin supporter and internationally award-winning actor/director Nikita Mikhalkov
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 7:41 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Per comments elsewhere, it's allegedly Putin supporter and internationally award-winning actor/director Nikita Mikhalkov
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 7:41 AM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ah, it being a string of different clips would explain why it seemed so disorganized and not super professional/polished to me.
posted by eviemath at 8:09 AM on April 15, 2022
posted by eviemath at 8:09 AM on April 15, 2022
East European Media: NEXTA on Twitter
The commander of cruiser "Moskva", Anton Kuprin, died during explosion and fire on board. This was reported by the adviser to Minister of Internal Affairs of #Ukraine Anton Gerashchenko.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:52 AM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
Captain Anton Kuprin gave the order to bombard #Snake Island on the first day of the war.
Meanwhile, British diplomats are apparently scrambling to determine the fate of a British volunteer soldier captured by Russian forces.
Aiden Aslin is a dual British/Ukrainian citizen and has been a regular member of the Ukrainian military for four years, so hopefully the Russian threats of execution against 'foreign mercenaries' won't be applied to him. His unit surrended in Mariupol after they ran out of ammunition and food, and heavy casualties. There is Russian video of him handcuffed and 'interrogated', and he has been beaten.
Perhaps Britain should offer to trade, say, Julian Assange or George Galloway for him?
Russia has enough criminal self-serving arseholes already, we don't need to be sending them more.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:55 AM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
Aiden Aslin is a dual British/Ukrainian citizen and has been a regular member of the Ukrainian military for four years, so hopefully the Russian threats of execution against 'foreign mercenaries' won't be applied to him. His unit surrended in Mariupol after they ran out of ammunition and food, and heavy casualties. There is Russian video of him handcuffed and 'interrogated', and he has been beaten.
Perhaps Britain should offer to trade, say, Julian Assange or George Galloway for him?
Russia has enough criminal self-serving arseholes already, we don't need to be sending them more.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:55 AM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also, Russia demands US and NATO stop arming Ukraine.
The WaPo prints informed speculation that Russia might extend attacks on weapon delivery outside Ukraine, which could end up triggering Article 5 and massively escalate the war.
posted by rikschell at 7:05 AM on April 15
My response to this is in the other thread.
posted by Reverend John at 9:32 AM on April 15, 2022
The WaPo prints informed speculation that Russia might extend attacks on weapon delivery outside Ukraine, which could end up triggering Article 5 and massively escalate the war.
posted by rikschell at 7:05 AM on April 15
My response to this is in the other thread.
posted by Reverend John at 9:32 AM on April 15, 2022
From my American perspective, I'm reminded of the majority American view that there's basically nothing the military couldn't do if uninhibited — a view that's quite mistaken for various reasons
This video encapsulating the brouhaha over the proposed US defense budget bears this out (despite the game-playing aspect of the process by which the military proposes unpalatable changes in response to Executive decisions or Congressional requirements it internally disfavors).
Maybe it's unrealistic daydreaming, but one wonders why the US wouldn't transfer any recent ships to be decommissioned due to changes in USN doctrine to some combination of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltics (like the Littoral Combat Ships, if they're not to be handed over to the Coast Guard; Taiwan could use them too but that's a different thread).
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:34 AM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
This video encapsulating the brouhaha over the proposed US defense budget bears this out (despite the game-playing aspect of the process by which the military proposes unpalatable changes in response to Executive decisions or Congressional requirements it internally disfavors).
Maybe it's unrealistic daydreaming, but one wonders why the US wouldn't transfer any recent ships to be decommissioned due to changes in USN doctrine to some combination of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltics (like the Littoral Combat Ships, if they're not to be handed over to the Coast Guard; Taiwan could use them too but that's a different thread).
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:34 AM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Probably too late to transfer ships to Ukraine (although NATO countries are starting to send Western armor, so maybe that will shift too). The others seem like they would be possible? The Baltics at least, if Turkey can't play favorites with warship transit. Same with retiring AWACS and whatnot. (Maybe it's presumed that some of that kind of transfer will happen when equipment is retired from US forces? There's going to be a need to replace Warsaw Pact stuff sent to Ukraine now.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:05 AM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:05 AM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine has run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russians in the 50 days since the war began, using the scans to find the soldiers' social media profiles - and send photos of their corpses to their families back home
From a Washington Post reporter (drew harwell).
Does this violate conventions? I do hope it's to some degree respectful, as in, "we are sorry to inform you". This will likely be discussed over many years in terms of ethics as well as effectiveness. The thread has some report of it hardening russians opinion of Ukraine. On the news one wonk suggested the war could last all of 2022.
posted by sammyo at 10:06 AM on April 15, 2022 [8 favorites]
From a Washington Post reporter (drew harwell).
Does this violate conventions? I do hope it's to some degree respectful, as in, "we are sorry to inform you". This will likely be discussed over many years in terms of ethics as well as effectiveness. The thread has some report of it hardening russians opinion of Ukraine. On the news one wonk suggested the war could last all of 2022.
posted by sammyo at 10:06 AM on April 15, 2022 [8 favorites]
Does this violate conventions?
I think 'pillaging the dead' might apply, "“The dead” means persons who died because of the reasons related to the conduct of hostilities. The remains of such persons, including non-citizens of the State where they died, shall be respected."
That said, going about it via facial recognition might *technically* break the link, I'm hardly an expert here.
posted by CrystalDave at 10:37 AM on April 15, 2022
I think 'pillaging the dead' might apply, "“The dead” means persons who died because of the reasons related to the conduct of hostilities. The remains of such persons, including non-citizens of the State where they died, shall be respected."
That said, going about it via facial recognition might *technically* break the link, I'm hardly an expert here.
posted by CrystalDave at 10:37 AM on April 15, 2022
Sounds like that will lead to a lot of misinformed people. That's horrendous.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:40 AM on April 15, 2022
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:40 AM on April 15, 2022
BTW, who is the dead, fat Vladimir from Poradovska's poem?
posted by Reverend John at 11:12 AM on April 15, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 11:12 AM on April 15, 2022
Possibly Russian far-right politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died last week.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:27 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:27 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
The remains of such persons, including non-citizens of the State where they died, shall be respected.
The reason for this is in part so that families get the notifications first. Normally, the Russian military would be doing this. In this case they are not. So what is the right thing to do?
posted by corb at 11:46 AM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
The reason for this is in part so that families get the notifications first. Normally, the Russian military would be doing this. In this case they are not. So what is the right thing to do?
posted by corb at 11:46 AM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
The videos of captured Russian soldiers uploaded to YouTube are already kinda questionable; they're presented as voluntary -- and that may very well be true, but it's still sketchy. Here's a WaPo column on that from early March. [Archive link.]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:49 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:49 AM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Roman (NFKRZ) released a video about polling in Russia. Probably nothing new for the audience here, but he does come up with a good directive at the end - spreading Russian polling results is spreading propaganda.
My husband actually received and completed a poll call yesterday from the state agency. It was long as hell, close to 40 minutes. It was a typical poll with a mix of multiple choice questions (mostly on a strongly disagree - strongly agree spectrum) and open ended questions (What is the biggest issue in the country, where do you get information). He was honest about deep disapproval and that he feels the biggest issue in the country is that the putin regime needs to go. Knowing that it was a state poll, and based on the questions, the purpose of the poll seemed to be trying to figure out if they should block Youtube. The poll caller actually let slip at the end of the call that lately only about 5% of people contacted have agreed to answer any questions at all (and respondents can also choose to not answer individual questions in the process of the poll). So when you see results listed in percentage of respondents, it is very likely not representational of the population at large. I just googled typical response rate for US polls and a quick run through the results reveals that there are at times similar issues with getting decent response rates, but it seems poll conductors are less likely to run with the results if they get an extreme low rate. Sorry if this gives any Americans flashbacks of the "do polls matter?!?!?" chatter during elections.
Sort of related to x% of Russians believe that putin can walk on water, something I've seen parroted around, that I myself have thought and also said, is the idea that russia is not ready to accept a new way of leadership. "Russian history can be summed up as...and then things got worse." "Russians want a strongman leader." etc. Maybe this idea itself is a creation of Russian propaganda, fed to the west, so it can be parroted back to Russians to make them believe it, or as Roman says to make dissenters feel alienated and hopeless with regard to change. We already see a similar use of west to russia feedback loops with how Fox News clips and Tucker Carlson specifically are used to show "rational" points of view from the west, so I figure it could also be done with the idea that Russia is not ready for new leadership (and so, I guess putin it is!)
I've decided to start fighting this idea where I can. "yea, putin made a miscalculation. I think we're ready to give someone else a shot at leading" "change is inevitable, we are brave and ready" etc. Maybe planting seeds of change being achievable with a slight bent towards positivity. Of course not me alone: my lips to whatever cookie data capturing internet overlords are caching this - change the narrative to be that Russia is primed for new leadership.
posted by WeekendJen at 12:13 PM on April 15, 2022 [37 favorites]
My husband actually received and completed a poll call yesterday from the state agency. It was long as hell, close to 40 minutes. It was a typical poll with a mix of multiple choice questions (mostly on a strongly disagree - strongly agree spectrum) and open ended questions (What is the biggest issue in the country, where do you get information). He was honest about deep disapproval and that he feels the biggest issue in the country is that the putin regime needs to go. Knowing that it was a state poll, and based on the questions, the purpose of the poll seemed to be trying to figure out if they should block Youtube. The poll caller actually let slip at the end of the call that lately only about 5% of people contacted have agreed to answer any questions at all (and respondents can also choose to not answer individual questions in the process of the poll). So when you see results listed in percentage of respondents, it is very likely not representational of the population at large. I just googled typical response rate for US polls and a quick run through the results reveals that there are at times similar issues with getting decent response rates, but it seems poll conductors are less likely to run with the results if they get an extreme low rate. Sorry if this gives any Americans flashbacks of the "do polls matter?!?!?" chatter during elections.
Sort of related to x% of Russians believe that putin can walk on water, something I've seen parroted around, that I myself have thought and also said, is the idea that russia is not ready to accept a new way of leadership. "Russian history can be summed up as...and then things got worse." "Russians want a strongman leader." etc. Maybe this idea itself is a creation of Russian propaganda, fed to the west, so it can be parroted back to Russians to make them believe it, or as Roman says to make dissenters feel alienated and hopeless with regard to change. We already see a similar use of west to russia feedback loops with how Fox News clips and Tucker Carlson specifically are used to show "rational" points of view from the west, so I figure it could also be done with the idea that Russia is not ready for new leadership (and so, I guess putin it is!)
I've decided to start fighting this idea where I can. "yea, putin made a miscalculation. I think we're ready to give someone else a shot at leading" "change is inevitable, we are brave and ready" etc. Maybe planting seeds of change being achievable with a slight bent towards positivity. Of course not me alone: my lips to whatever cookie data capturing internet overlords are caching this - change the narrative to be that Russia is primed for new leadership.
posted by WeekendJen at 12:13 PM on April 15, 2022 [37 favorites]
1420's poll from a couple of days ago was fairly clever. "What countries would you want to conquer?" Or as one of the commenters put it "Basically... tell me you oppose the Special Military Operation, without actually telling me you oppose the Special Military Operation."
posted by tdismukes at 12:22 PM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by tdismukes at 12:22 PM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
I don't think it means that.
So, wait, that clip from Julia Davis, I feel like I’m missing a step. Does this mean Russia has officially claimed the Moskva was sunk by Ukraine? Last I heard, the fires were still an accident.
That’s a big admission.
At the beginning of the clip, Propaganda Woman is talking about the Moskva. She says it "experienced a fire"; nothing about an attack on it (at least, not as shown in what we see in this clip).
It then pretty abruptly cuts (seemingly with an unknown amount of intervening footage omitted) to Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley angrily yelling about there having been an attack on the motherland last night, and that being a casus belli.
After some confusion about what we're calling the war that we're definitely not calling a war, Propaganda Woman asks Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley if he's talking about the Moskva. He then says he didn't want to talk about the Moskva, "because there were different stories".
But, he goes on to add, since she brought it up, hell yeah, what happened to the Moskva is absolutely a cause for war.
All in all, the impression I came away with was:
- Propaganda Woman (and presumably the government) were still abiding by the "The Special Operation is not a war" and "Moskva was not attacked" positions;
- Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley agrees that the Special Operation is not a war, but wants to escalate to a war because of some unspecified-in-this-clip attack the previous evening on the motherland (wasn't there an attack on Belgorod recently?);
- PW misunderstands MUWB to mean they should escalate to a war because of the Moskva;
- MUWB understands that the official line is that what happened to the Moskva was the fault of a fire, not of an attack, but...
- ... has heard otherwise, and (unsaid) believes it was an attack, and...
- ... threads the needle regarding the Moskva and war via cognitive dissonance.
Correction: A much better citation than "commenters elsewhere" says it's a different award-winning, Russian movie director in his seventies playing mustachioed defender of the Motherland in those Russian TV clips: Vladimir Bortko
Russian filmmaker Vladimir Bortko practically weeps on national TV when discussing the sunk Moskva warship, shouting that this is a “real casus belli” for war against Ukraine. Except, oops, the Russian military blames it on exploded ammunition. Get your stories straight, guys!
All schadenfreude aside, this rhetoric (plus MoD claims about Ukrainian attacks against Russian settlements) is beginning to sound like Moscow is considering an official war against Ukraine, which would allow the Kremlin to draw on more resources.
Might mean more for Russians than Ukrainians.
- managing editor of Meduza in English, Kevin Rothrock
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 1:12 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russian filmmaker Vladimir Bortko practically weeps on national TV when discussing the sunk Moskva warship, shouting that this is a “real casus belli” for war against Ukraine. Except, oops, the Russian military blames it on exploded ammunition. Get your stories straight, guys!
All schadenfreude aside, this rhetoric (plus MoD claims about Ukrainian attacks against Russian settlements) is beginning to sound like Moscow is considering an official war against Ukraine, which would allow the Kremlin to draw on more resources.
Might mean more for Russians than Ukrainians.
- managing editor of Meduza in English, Kevin Rothrock
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 1:12 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles Struck The Russian Cruiser Moskva: U.S. Officials – A clearer picture of what caused the sinking of the cruiser Moskva is starting to emerge., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, Apr 15, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 1:13 PM on April 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
A senior U.S. defense official has told The War Zone that Ukrainian forces did hit Russian Navy’s Project 1164 Slava class cruiser Moskva with a pair of domestically-developed Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, directly contributing to its sinking in the Black Sea yesterday. There had been multiple earlier reports indicating that American authorities were increasingly confident in that assessment.More details and subsequent war updates in the article.
Much about the exact circumstances of the loss of the Moskva still remains murky, including whether or not it was indeed being towed back to port in the middle of a storm when it actually slipped below the waves, as Russian authorities have asserted. Regardless of the specific circumstances, if Ukrainian forces were indeed directly responsible for destroying the flagship of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet, as seems increasingly likely to have been the case, it would be the most significant naval combat loss in four decades, as you can read more about here.
…
The Latest
POSTED: 3:50 PM EST—
The Washington Post's Dan Lamothe wrote on Twitter earlier today that a senior U.S. defense official had provided confirmation of the Ukrainian missile strike on Moskva to multiple reporters in the halls of the Pentagon earlier today. Multiple other outlets subsequently reported this news, as well.…
posted by cenoxo at 1:13 PM on April 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine has confirmed Russia's statement that it has used TU-22M3 "Backfire" strategic bombers to attack the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Targeting footage.
From April 8, by an Australian commentator: "Dumb Bombs for Dumb Things: VKS reactivates 70-Year-Old FAB-3000M-46 bombs not suitable for Fast Jets to arm its Tupolev Tu-22M3 Supersonic Bombers to strike Ukraine." Beyond the greater harm to the population implied by use of free fall bombs, of note is that they will require the bombers to fly at altitudes and speeds that put them at greater risk, and also that they are so old that they may not be safe to carry.
The TU-22 is an intermediate bomber dating back to 1969 (with this variant introduced in 1989), it is in between fighter-bombers like the SU-24 or SU-34 and larger bombers like the Bear (roughly the counterpart to the B-52) or the Blackjack (comparable to the B-1 Lancer). Its more conventional role is to carry cruise missiles to attack carrier groups.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:29 PM on April 15, 2022
From April 8, by an Australian commentator: "Dumb Bombs for Dumb Things: VKS reactivates 70-Year-Old FAB-3000M-46 bombs not suitable for Fast Jets to arm its Tupolev Tu-22M3 Supersonic Bombers to strike Ukraine." Beyond the greater harm to the population implied by use of free fall bombs, of note is that they will require the bombers to fly at altitudes and speeds that put them at greater risk, and also that they are so old that they may not be safe to carry.
The TU-22 is an intermediate bomber dating back to 1969 (with this variant introduced in 1989), it is in between fighter-bombers like the SU-24 or SU-34 and larger bombers like the Bear (roughly the counterpart to the B-52) or the Blackjack (comparable to the B-1 Lancer). Its more conventional role is to carry cruise missiles to attack carrier groups.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:29 PM on April 15, 2022
It seems like the Moskva had two radar systems and the one that was needed direct the fire control system against a missile attack could only look across 180 degree arc at a time. The radar with a 360 degree field of view could only detect aircraft sized objects. On a dark and stormy night when visibility was poor, Ukraine sent a Bayaktar near the ship to distract its radar and then launched the Neptune missiles to attack from behind the radars field of view. Poor visibility meant that spotters were not going to see the missile and let them swing the radar around.
The Neptune is very similar in design and performance to a US made Harpoon missile. In fact it is a clone of a Soviet clone of the Harpoon. So it will be easy for the US to supply some actual Harpoon missiles to Ukraine and let them call them Neptunes should we want to have some distance between the sinking of a Russian warship and US munitions.
posted by interogative mood at 2:37 PM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Neptune is very similar in design and performance to a US made Harpoon missile. In fact it is a clone of a Soviet clone of the Harpoon. So it will be easy for the US to supply some actual Harpoon missiles to Ukraine and let them call them Neptunes should we want to have some distance between the sinking of a Russian warship and US munitions.
posted by interogative mood at 2:37 PM on April 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley would make an excellent username.
posted by y2karl at 2:38 PM on April 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 2:38 PM on April 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley
Who was the newscaster from a few weeks ago who, regarding nuclear escalation, said "without Russia in it, why have a world at all?" or suchlike? I'd be interested in the parsing of that, grammatically.
posted by bartleby at 3:05 PM on April 15, 2022
Who was the newscaster from a few weeks ago who, regarding nuclear escalation, said "without Russia in it, why have a world at all?" or suchlike? I'd be interested in the parsing of that, grammatically.
posted by bartleby at 3:05 PM on April 15, 2022
Naval News: Moskva sinking location pinpointed; landing ships seen departing Sevastopol towards Ukraine after a burst of base activity.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:09 PM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:09 PM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Mirror Universe Wilford Brimley was with Multiverse Lance Henriksen. That dude is everywhere.
posted by y2karl at 3:13 PM on April 15, 2022
posted by y2karl at 3:13 PM on April 15, 2022
Who was the newscaster from a few weeks ago who, regarding nuclear escalation, said "without Russia in it, why have a world at all?" or suchlike? I'd be interested in the parsing of that, grammatically.
I linked to this in the first days of invasion:
"He's (Putin) said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."
Wilford Brimley set up ' Windows' then began building a spacecraft, that's 'The Thing' about that
posted by clavdivs at 3:26 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
I linked to this in the first days of invasion:
"He's (Putin) said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."
Wilford Brimley set up ' Windows' then began building a spacecraft, that's 'The Thing' about that
posted by clavdivs at 3:26 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
From CNN:
So it will be easy for the US to supply some actual Harpoon missiles to Ukraine and let them call them Neptunes
1) They're not exact clones. Wreckage will be distinguishable.
2) Nuptuns have twice the range of Harpoons, although a smaller payload.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:27 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Zelensky said that Ukrainian officials think about 2,500 to 3,000 Ukrainian troops have died in the war, comparing the figure to what he said are Russia's casualty numbers of 19,000 to 20,000 (Russia has acknowledged 1,351 military casualties). Zelensky added there are about 10,000 Ukrainian troops who have been injured and that it's "hard to say how many will survive."
Civilian casualties are more difficult to quantify, he said
So it will be easy for the US to supply some actual Harpoon missiles to Ukraine and let them call them Neptunes
1) They're not exact clones. Wreckage will be distinguishable.
2) Nuptuns have twice the range of Harpoons, although a smaller payload.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:27 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Center for European Policy Analysis apparently is doing some long term tracking of Russian attitudes about the war, slightly more systematically than the voxpops we've been sharing with each other, though only slightly imo but that's because I tend to be skeptical of the snowball method in collecting respondents when it comes to (social) network/grouping effects. But it still means they're collecting narratives in a more coordinated way and here's the first report:
Assessing support for the war is a tricky thing in an authoritarian regime. It is tricky because authoritarian states do not belong to their people, they belong to the rulers. And the people are well aware of it.
While polls do show growing support both for Putin and his war, they give no information on how support is defined. Starting from February 27, Public Sociology Laboratory, an independent collective of Russian researchers now based in various countries and studying post-Soviet politics, has been collecting in-depth interviews with Russians with a wide variety of positions on the war: from enthusiastic support to open protest.
The interviews were collected through so-called snowballing: informants were mostly reached through social networks and personal recommendations to create greater trust. The preliminary findings are fascinating — an analysis of more than 130 interviews shows that the “party of war” constitutes only a segment, and probably not a significant one, of those supporting the conflict. For most pro-war individuals we spoke to, their support, open or implicit, is composed of more than one element.
Between two poles — the “party of war” and the “party of peace” — there are many whose attitudes balance between support and opposition. Some of these say they have “no position” at all. However, those people do have something in common — they oppose any war, are upset by the conflict and the casualties, are sorry that the Ukrainian lives and cities are being destroyed. They don’t understand the reasons for the invasion, and instead repeat the opinions they have heard from others. They report confusion in the face of an “information war” fought by all the parties involved, and “propaganda” coming from both sides.
The “party of war” says it “knows” what the war is about and supports it. The “party of peace” is horrified by the war and sees no justification for the violence. Many of those who oppose the war did not join the anti-war protests because they were scared about the consequences — those accused of hooliganism can be jailed for up to eight years, and those accused of “disseminating of false information” or “discreditation of the Russian army” — up to 15. This is why protests cannot be treated as a measure of war support in Russia.
The key difference of the third group, between the two poles, is they feel powerless to judge. They delegate that right to the state, saying that in all likelihood there was a reason for Russia to attack, even if they cannot understand it. They believe that people and government live parallel and disconnected lives, and that ordinary people have no means to influence decisions made by the president.
And randomly I had this fairly rah-rah US policy panel playing while working, which is unsurprising as it's convened by the Council for Foreign Relations: The Struggles of Russian Military in Ukraine. The tenor of the discussion is kinda where we were about a couple of days ago but i thought an anecdote somewhere in the last third about the Ukrainian military was so demonstrative: apparently the US, in the post-2014 ongoing military support and training, provided an array of missile systems but hesitated to unlock the full systems capability so essentially provided them hobbled, but the Ukrainians figured out workarounds and other solutions on how to operate to near-full ability that they were later asked to teach the US military guys on how they did it. Heh.
posted by cendawanita at 3:34 PM on April 15, 2022 [13 favorites]
Assessing support for the war is a tricky thing in an authoritarian regime. It is tricky because authoritarian states do not belong to their people, they belong to the rulers. And the people are well aware of it.
While polls do show growing support both for Putin and his war, they give no information on how support is defined. Starting from February 27, Public Sociology Laboratory, an independent collective of Russian researchers now based in various countries and studying post-Soviet politics, has been collecting in-depth interviews with Russians with a wide variety of positions on the war: from enthusiastic support to open protest.
The interviews were collected through so-called snowballing: informants were mostly reached through social networks and personal recommendations to create greater trust. The preliminary findings are fascinating — an analysis of more than 130 interviews shows that the “party of war” constitutes only a segment, and probably not a significant one, of those supporting the conflict. For most pro-war individuals we spoke to, their support, open or implicit, is composed of more than one element.
Between two poles — the “party of war” and the “party of peace” — there are many whose attitudes balance between support and opposition. Some of these say they have “no position” at all. However, those people do have something in common — they oppose any war, are upset by the conflict and the casualties, are sorry that the Ukrainian lives and cities are being destroyed. They don’t understand the reasons for the invasion, and instead repeat the opinions they have heard from others. They report confusion in the face of an “information war” fought by all the parties involved, and “propaganda” coming from both sides.
The “party of war” says it “knows” what the war is about and supports it. The “party of peace” is horrified by the war and sees no justification for the violence. Many of those who oppose the war did not join the anti-war protests because they were scared about the consequences — those accused of hooliganism can be jailed for up to eight years, and those accused of “disseminating of false information” or “discreditation of the Russian army” — up to 15. This is why protests cannot be treated as a measure of war support in Russia.
The key difference of the third group, between the two poles, is they feel powerless to judge. They delegate that right to the state, saying that in all likelihood there was a reason for Russia to attack, even if they cannot understand it. They believe that people and government live parallel and disconnected lives, and that ordinary people have no means to influence decisions made by the president.
And randomly I had this fairly rah-rah US policy panel playing while working, which is unsurprising as it's convened by the Council for Foreign Relations: The Struggles of Russian Military in Ukraine. The tenor of the discussion is kinda where we were about a couple of days ago but i thought an anecdote somewhere in the last third about the Ukrainian military was so demonstrative: apparently the US, in the post-2014 ongoing military support and training, provided an array of missile systems but hesitated to unlock the full systems capability so essentially provided them hobbled, but the Ukrainians figured out workarounds and other solutions on how to operate to near-full ability that they were later asked to teach the US military guys on how they did it. Heh.
posted by cendawanita at 3:34 PM on April 15, 2022 [13 favorites]
These are the people who keep hacking John Deere's tractor engine firmware so farmers don't get ripped off for maintenance work.
They've taken out a helicopter with an antitank weapon.
They sank the Moskva with a weapon not meant for a ship of that tonnage.
No point bothering with crippleware with Ukrainians.
posted by ocschwar at 4:01 PM on April 15, 2022 [22 favorites]
They've taken out a helicopter with an antitank weapon.
They sank the Moskva with a weapon not meant for a ship of that tonnage.
No point bothering with crippleware with Ukrainians.
posted by ocschwar at 4:01 PM on April 15, 2022 [22 favorites]
I wonder if Ukraine clearly knew about the Moskva's radar weaknesses because it was Ukraine who built it initially (for the USSR) and then retrofitted it (during the breakup).
posted by meowzilla at 4:17 PM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 4:17 PM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
I wonder if Ukraine just guessed about the Moskva's radar weaknesses because "these guys can't do anything right".
posted by Flunkie at 5:25 PM on April 15, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 5:25 PM on April 15, 2022
First(?) confirmation of a NATO country's forces in theater.
OSINTtechnical on Twitter
OSINTtechnical on Twitter
The Times is reporting that British SAS troops are training Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.Includes paywalled (London) Times link. (Archive.ph)
Officers from two battalions stationed in and around the capital said they had undergone military training from serving British special forces, one last week and the other the week before.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:34 PM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Captain Yuriy Myronenko, whose battalion is stationed in Obolon on the northern outskirts of Kyiv, said that military trainers had come to instruct new and returning military recruits to use NLAWs, British-supplied anti-tank missiles that were delivered in February as the invasion was beginning.
Anton Kuprin, Captain of the Moskva, is dead.
I guess he's fucked now.
posted by adept256 at 7:32 PM on April 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
According to Lithuania’s foreign minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, the cruiser sent out a distress call. By 1.14am local time (2314 BST) on Thursday the Moskva was lying on its side and about half an hour later “all the electricity went out,” he posted on Facebook.This was the guy on the other end of the 'go fuck yourself' call.
From 2am a Turkish ship managed to rescue 54 sailors. An hour later Turkey and Romania confirmed the ship had “completely sunk”. Ukrainian officials said stormy weather stopped Russian boats from carrying out an evacuation, adding: “Nature was on our side.”
The Kremlin has not given any details on possible casualties among the 510 crew of the Moskva, and has not released any photographs of the stricken ship.
An article published by the Tass state-run news agency initially claimed the “entire crew” had been evacuated. It was later edited to remove the word “entire”. One unconfirmed Ukrainian report said 14 sailors including the chief of Moskva’s medical service were taken to the Crimean port of Sevastopol. The fate of the other 494 was unknown, it said. If they are confirmed to have drowned it would amount to the largest number of deaths of Russian servicemen in a single incident since the second world war.
Anton Gerashchenko, a Ukrainian interior ministry adviser who has a popular Telegram channel, posted a photo of the Moskva’s captain, Anton Kuprin. Kuprin was killed during the explosion and fire on the ship, Gerashchenko claimed.
I guess he's fucked now.
posted by adept256 at 7:32 PM on April 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
Last I looked those stamps were going for 10$ on ebay. Now they're between 65-225$. Likely to go higher?
Of course, the Ukraine PO can just print these.
posted by adept256 at 7:46 PM on April 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
Of course, the Ukraine PO can just print these.
posted by adept256 at 7:46 PM on April 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
I sure hope they do! Cause I'd like a few sheets, but not to line scalpers' pockets.
They should do more. That unbroken pitcher maybe? Whatever goes viral. It's brilliant.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 PM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
They should do more. That unbroken pitcher maybe? Whatever goes viral. It's brilliant.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 PM on April 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
In a prior thread Teegeeack AV Club Secretary had a link he Ukrainian Post site offering “Russian warship, go …! Glory to Heroes!” stamps. It is now responsive... stamps are listed for $0.7862 USD (domestic postage) or $1.5040 USD (international postage) but it is not clear to me if that is per sheet of 6 or per stamp. Shipping & handling will be listed on an e-mailed invoice. (note: buyer profile set-up page is not secure)
posted by tinker at 8:48 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by tinker at 8:48 PM on April 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Times is reporting that British SAS troops are training Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.
Are we sure that the Brits aren't there to get trained by the Ukrainians?
posted by euphorb at 9:14 PM on April 15, 2022 [18 favorites]
Are we sure that the Brits aren't there to get trained by the Ukrainians?
posted by euphorb at 9:14 PM on April 15, 2022 [18 favorites]
I ordered* from that site at 8am on the morning of the 12th, set up a user account, and have been sitting with open tabs, waiting for the confirmation email (a step before submitting payment info) ever since. My assumption is still that there's no good reason to send international while there are still Ukrainians waiting to get their own stamps.
I did manage to place a small order from this site, which seems to have had a web presence for several years. It's about 1000% as expensive as ukposhta, as seems right.
Ope, on preview, they are sold out right now. Maybe Bombay Philatelic will have them at some point.
posted by droomoord at 9:17 PM on April 15, 2022
I did manage to place a small order from this site, which seems to have had a web presence for several years. It's about 1000% as expensive as ukposhta, as seems right.
Ope, on preview, they are sold out right now. Maybe Bombay Philatelic will have them at some point.
posted by droomoord at 9:17 PM on April 15, 2022
Here's a photo of the line for the stamp in Kyiv yesterday. There is an auction on April 22nd, though, for the full run, signed by Roman Gribov and Igor Smilansky (the Snake Island poet, and the CEO of Ukposhta).
posted by droomoord at 9:31 PM on April 15, 2022
posted by droomoord at 9:31 PM on April 15, 2022
The Times is reporting that British SAS troops are training Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.
In contrast,
"The Times is reporting that B̶r̶i̶t̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶S̶A̶S̶ U.S. Special Forces are training Ukrainian forces around Kyiv."
The key is "around" as open sources tells of Ukrainian Military getting training from the U.S. and others but your correct in the sense of who knows what but needs that. This is a increment from history, send in the British. Small force, tests many things, many, many things namely a needed military technical thing and a geo-political deterrent.
posted by clavdivs at 9:34 PM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
In contrast,
"The Times is reporting that B̶r̶i̶t̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶S̶A̶S̶ U.S. Special Forces are training Ukrainian forces around Kyiv."
The key is "around" as open sources tells of Ukrainian Military getting training from the U.S. and others but your correct in the sense of who knows what but needs that. This is a increment from history, send in the British. Small force, tests many things, many, many things namely a needed military technical thing and a geo-political deterrent.
posted by clavdivs at 9:34 PM on April 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Are we sure that the Brits aren't there to get trained by the Ukrainians?
"You train us to use these NLAWs, we'll tell you how to fix your John Deere tractors yourself."
posted by Stoneshop at 11:32 PM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
"You train us to use these NLAWs, we'll tell you how to fix your John Deere tractors yourself."
posted by Stoneshop at 11:32 PM on April 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
At the end of this war, the Ukrainians will have an enormous amount of both personal and institutional knowledge and practical experience, so the student will probably become the master.
posted by Harald74 at 12:02 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:02 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Here's a short thread from Twitter outlining why tanks are hard.
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on April 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on April 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
I found this thread alleging Russians are running 2 man crews on their tanks.
Which might well have been a consequence of the Russians thinking they'd just roll into Kyiv and be greeted as liberators, not encountering much if any opposition. If your main idea of the tactics to be used is to look sufficiently threatening by showing up with huge columns of equipment and not needing to actually fight protracted battles, it's probably quite feasible to skimp on the personnel committed.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:25 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Which might well have been a consequence of the Russians thinking they'd just roll into Kyiv and be greeted as liberators, not encountering much if any opposition. If your main idea of the tactics to be used is to look sufficiently threatening by showing up with huge columns of equipment and not needing to actually fight protracted battles, it's probably quite feasible to skimp on the personnel committed.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:25 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
So .. as Germany refuses to stop buying Russian gas via a pipeline crossing Ukraine ... what is to stop someone blowing up the pipe? Has this been wargamed? Considered?
posted by unearthed at 2:28 AM on April 16, 2022
posted by unearthed at 2:28 AM on April 16, 2022
So .. as Germany refuses to stop buying Russian gas via a pipeline crossing Ukraine ... what is to stop someone blowing up the pipe?
Well, if you don't mind poor, elderly Germans dying from hypothermia...
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Well, if you don't mind poor, elderly Germans dying from hypothermia...
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Germany's a rich country. Surely it can provide its poor with electric heaters in a pinch.
posted by acb at 4:43 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:43 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's pretty cynical. The gas that Germany gets goes largely toward electricity generation.
posted by hippybear at 5:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 5:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
I’m sorry I’m not very good at linking to articles but in our local German tabloid the Münchener merkur they tend to discuss the gas situation in a very disengaged way, kind of like it’s the weather: “will the gas get turned off?” “what’s going to happen with the gas?” “the EU decided against sanctioning the gas?” And my husband and I were discussing how much we would love to see posters around saying to people: are you taking too long of a hot shower? Because if you are you need to stop because you are paying for WAR? Do you need to cook a long roast in the oven? Can you put on a sweater? Drive slower. Because there is a general sense of disengagement about this I think. The more emotive comments are from people who think it would be best for Ukraine to give up now so the Germans can get back to normal and keep doing what they do best…. a kind of “what would Europe do without us if we weren’t so prosperous? Everyone would be so poor and that would be worse, and then we can’t help anyone and look how many refugees we help” kind of attitude and I find it very hard to stomach.
Here’s the article translation in English I found (from the Merkur), you just wouldn’t see an article like this in English in right now.
https://newsrnd.com/amp/2022-04-15-give-up-or-keep-fighting--the-war-also-throws-ukraine-into-an-ethical-dilemma.rkzvR1hI49.html
posted by pairofshades at 5:13 AM on April 16, 2022 [16 favorites]
Here’s the article translation in English I found (from the Merkur), you just wouldn’t see an article like this in English in right now.
https://newsrnd.com/amp/2022-04-15-give-up-or-keep-fighting--the-war-also-throws-ukraine-into-an-ethical-dilemma.rkzvR1hI49.html
posted by pairofshades at 5:13 AM on April 16, 2022 [16 favorites]
That article above doesn’t so much discuss the gas, but I think it hints at the existence of some readers who don’t see how their country is involved in this war, or who want to see this war as unnecessary and therefore not something in need of their sacrifice… or something like that which I’m finding hard to articulate.
posted by pairofshades at 5:17 AM on April 16, 2022
posted by pairofshades at 5:17 AM on April 16, 2022
Doesn't Germany also have a lot of nuclear power plants, sitting idle because after Fukushima nuclear power is bad, whose ecological costs have all been paid down other than the two truckloads of nuclear fuel/waste a year they would use? It sounds like unmothballing those would be a no-brainer.
posted by acb at 5:19 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:19 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
From what I understand, I read in the Telegraph last week, they have closed 3 and still intend to close the remaining 3 by the end of the year but I could be wrong about that and would love to be corrected!
posted by pairofshades at 5:22 AM on April 16, 2022
posted by pairofshades at 5:22 AM on April 16, 2022
Have the closed ones been irrevocably demolished, to the point where reopening them would be similarly costly to building a new one, or would reopening them still be relatively economical?
posted by acb at 5:45 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 5:45 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
3/8 [Euractiv] : Germany rules out prolonging its nuclear power plants
The article cites both legal and practical "uncertainties," plus there are already challenges with keeping the remaining units online:
The government’s enquiry concluded on Tuesday (8 March) that keeping the country’s remaining nuclear power fleet online was “not recommended” at this stage and that it was too late to reactive the plants that had already been shut down.
“We have again examined very carefully whether a longer operation of the nuclear power plants would help us in this foreign policy situation,” German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said in a statement on Tuesday.
“The answer is negative – it would not help us,” he concluded.
The assessment was conducted by the economy ministry held by Habeck and the environment ministry headed by Steffi Lemke, who are both from the Green party.
The article cites both legal and practical "uncertainties," plus there are already challenges with keeping the remaining units online:
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:57 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Germany’s negative assessment on nuclear cited legal and practical uncertainties as the basis for the decision. The permit to operate the three plants that were shut off on 31 December could not be reactivated in a “legally certain way,” the ministries explained in a statement.
And even if the decision to restart the nuclear plants had been taken, the effect would likely not be felt in time for the 2022 winter season, they argued.
Furthermore, the three plants that are currently still running would not have sufficient fuel available after 31 December 2022, which would result in “no additional electricity generation” for the coming winter.
Extending the runtime of the three running plants would also require a safety assessment, which was last performed in 2009. Significant retrofitting would be needed to restart them and ensure they meet “state-of-the-art” safety requirements for a longer period, the ministries argued.
The costs associated with getting personnel back on board and the safety assessment would require a runtime extension of three to five years. This is what the state of Bavaria had been calling for.
“We must not shut down anything that is still running: That is why we need a moderate extension of the operating times of nuclear power plants for 3 to 5 years,” tweeted Markus Söder, the minister-president of Bavaria.
In their analysis, the two ministries “assume that other options will be available in the period until 2028 to ensure sufficient electricity supply despite gas shortages,” the assessment reads.
I remember reading that they’ve gone so far along the road to closing them that they’ve removed the responsibility and liability for the plants and the companies that ran them don’t want to take that responsibility back and since this has all been put into law, the law would need to be changed, which is theoretically possible but a lot of those in government are hell bent against that happening so there are a lot of hurdles to overcome. My explanation of this probably sounds like it’s from a 5 year old but I think it sums it up. I did find an article about it as well but again I’m so sorry I’m bad at linking. I promise to learn! Anyway, you really would think that they could find a way to make this happen and sort this out- you know- the same type of attitude they had when they were trying to get the Covid vaccine. There were lots of rules and reasons they shouldn’t be able to do it, but they found a way/didn’t stop them from trying.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-germany-keep-its-nuclear-plants-running-2022-02-28/
posted by pairofshades at 5:59 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-germany-keep-its-nuclear-plants-running-2022-02-28/
posted by pairofshades at 5:59 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Iirc correctly, based on previous coverage and discussions, the nuclear reactors need years to properly reactivate and be ready to generate power so it's not a simple matter, logistics-wise, to simply switch them on. One way or another, for the European civilian population on the western end it won't be long before the war becomes less abstract to them. I had hoped the warmer weather can soothe the public pain because the reminder is not so acute as when you need heating and I don't think the countries we're talking about are as deep into central air conditioning as Americans are, but then i remember even cooling in the summer months now isn't just a simple matter of throwing the windows open in a lot of the modern buildings.
posted by cendawanita at 5:59 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:59 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
pairofshades, if you highlight a text and then click on the chain icon at the bottom of this comment box (or top if at the desktop version), you can paste the link and turn the text to a hypertext/linked text. At a pinch, you can select and highlight the url you've set down and click the chain icon and repeat as above. Does that help?
posted by cendawanita at 6:01 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 6:01 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Well, that's unfortunate.
OTOH, doesn't France still have a lot of surplus nuclear power? Sending money westward for French electricity could be preferable to sending it to Moscow for gas.
posted by acb at 6:11 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
OTOH, doesn't France still have a lot of surplus nuclear power? Sending money westward for French electricity could be preferable to sending it to Moscow for gas.
posted by acb at 6:11 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia wants to take out Elon Musk’s satellites after their ship went down. Article
posted by pairofshades at 6:12 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 6:12 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thank you cendawanita!!!!! I did it!!!!! I tried once before and it was a disaster and THANK YOU!!!!!
posted by pairofshades at 6:14 AM on April 16, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 6:14 AM on April 16, 2022 [16 favorites]
Russia wants to take out Elon Musk’s satellites after their ship went down
I am not mentally prepared for Dale Brown novels to become reality.
John Ringo has been hanging around Ukraine War twitter; that was surreal enough.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:17 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
I am not mentally prepared for Dale Brown novels to become reality.
John Ringo has been hanging around Ukraine War twitter; that was surreal enough.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:17 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
but then i remember even cooling in the summer months now isn't just a simple matter of throwing the windows open in a lot of the modern buildings.
Throwing them open is pretty simple and just requires something like a chair or a desktop computer, but to close them again in the evening you'd have to get a glazier in.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:41 AM on April 16, 2022 [23 favorites]
Throwing them open is pretty simple and just requires something like a chair or a desktop computer, but to close them again in the evening you'd have to get a glazier in.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:41 AM on April 16, 2022 [23 favorites]
*deep contemplating face emoji* yes I suppose I used a vernacular expression that's much too energetic if taken literally lmao
posted by cendawanita at 6:49 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 6:49 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
There is a "rule" in my (and all) trade that you never start a new task on a friday afternoon. Because it unvariably leads to rushing and that invariably leads to shortcutting and mistakes and incidents. Its literally considered prudent to have crews cleaning their trucks or whatever for the last couple hours of the week than start a new system critical task that they should be able to finish in the remaining time because of the risk of injury and disaster. No sane manager is going to rush recommissioning of a nuclear power plant where the wrong mistake could be catastrophic.
And there will have been plenty of the subsystems that were allowed to wear out rather than being replaced because the plant was shutting down before they would fail. But now all those systems would have to be replaced in anticipation of extended run time.
posted by Mitheral at 7:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [13 favorites]
And there will have been plenty of the subsystems that were allowed to wear out rather than being replaced because the plant was shutting down before they would fail. But now all those systems would have to be replaced in anticipation of extended run time.
posted by Mitheral at 7:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [13 favorites]
At 102 Ben Ferencz is the last surviving Nuremberg prosecutor.
“I am heartbroken” at atrocities in Ukraine, he says. “To see it happening again, very similar, kids being shot, homes being blown up, it pains me to see we have learned so little from the Holocaust & from the trials”.
posted by adamvasco at 7:14 AM on April 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
“I am heartbroken” at atrocities in Ukraine, he says. “To see it happening again, very similar, kids being shot, homes being blown up, it pains me to see we have learned so little from the Holocaust & from the trials”.
posted by adamvasco at 7:14 AM on April 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
Estonian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee's Eerik N Kross on Twitter
FSB arrests the commander of the 🇷🇺 Black Sea fleet vice admiral Igor Ossipov. Obviously for the bad weather and an accidental fire on board of Moskva. 8th general out of commission by 🇺🇦 action in this war.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:41 AM on April 16, 2022 [14 favorites]
Just how much of the command staff can Putin arrest before he starts to lose control of the military?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
we would love to see posters around saying to people: are you taking too long of a hot shower? Because if you are you need to stop because you are paying for WAR?
I've seen WWII homefront propaganda posters that could easily be adapted. "When you shower for an hour you shower with Putin."
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 8:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
I've seen WWII homefront propaganda posters that could easily be adapted. "When you shower for an hour you shower with Putin."
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 8:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
Russia wants to take out Elon Musk’s satellites after their ship went down. Article
Apparently United Russia says otherwise (original, google translate): "The day before, a message was published on a fake website of the faction that the chairman of United Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, announced the order given to the Aerospace Forces to destroy the Starlink satellite constellation."
posted by BungaDunga at 8:29 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Apparently United Russia says otherwise (original, google translate): "The day before, a message was published on a fake website of the faction that the chairman of United Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, announced the order given to the Aerospace Forces to destroy the Starlink satellite constellation."
posted by BungaDunga at 8:29 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
That is- UR says that the information about Medvedev ordering Starlink shot down was posted on a fake website and didn't happen. Unless there's some better sourcing on the original stories that say it did happen, I think it's probably quite unlikely that Medvedev announced this, and even if he did they decided it was a mistake.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:36 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:36 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
"When you shower for an hour you shower with Putin."
Illustrated by Rockwell or Seuss? SHUDDER
A disturbing twitter thread started by Jim Vasquez (an American fighting in Ukraine) on booby traps and IEDs found in civilian homes and towns.
Illustrated by Rockwell or Seuss? SHUDDER
A disturbing twitter thread started by Jim Vasquez (an American fighting in Ukraine) on booby traps and IEDs found in civilian homes and towns.
I wasn’t going to show this but feel I have to. Russians booby trapping civilians homes. They pull the pin on grenade, put it in a glass, string it to cabinet so when you open, pulls glass, glass breaks, Kaboom, another innocent dead. Just pure evil.posted by snuffleupagus at 8:38 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just how much of the command staff can Putin arrest before he starts to lose control of the military?
As much as he wants. It's an army who's power structures are kept deliberately weak so the FSB mains political supremacy. Even if the army decided to make a move against Putin. who's going to be in charge? Shoigu? A Tuvan ruling ethnic Russians? You've got to be kidding. Gerasimov? Same problem, he's Tatar, so he's out. Putin in his prime was not stupid. His potential replacements are selected specifically because of the Slavic-centric (supremacist?) nature of Russian society. They could never be legitimate rulers and therefore owe their positions to Putin directly.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:52 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
As much as he wants. It's an army who's power structures are kept deliberately weak so the FSB mains political supremacy. Even if the army decided to make a move against Putin. who's going to be in charge? Shoigu? A Tuvan ruling ethnic Russians? You've got to be kidding. Gerasimov? Same problem, he's Tatar, so he's out. Putin in his prime was not stupid. His potential replacements are selected specifically because of the Slavic-centric (supremacist?) nature of Russian society. They could never be legitimate rulers and therefore owe their positions to Putin directly.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:52 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
Russian gas via a pipeline crossing Ukraine ... what is to stop someone blowing up the pipe?
It doesn't even have to be blown up; Ukraine could coordinate with Germany whether it'd be OK for the time being (assuming demand for gas in the coming months allows that, with more solar generation and less need for heating) to close the valves and shut down the compressors. But my crystal ball doesn't show what the situation will be regarding Russia, Ukraine, Germany, gas and the entire pile of related matter to see whether delivery can be restored when autumn rolls in and gas demand rises again.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:00 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
It doesn't even have to be blown up; Ukraine could coordinate with Germany whether it'd be OK for the time being (assuming demand for gas in the coming months allows that, with more solar generation and less need for heating) to close the valves and shut down the compressors. But my crystal ball doesn't show what the situation will be regarding Russia, Ukraine, Germany, gas and the entire pile of related matter to see whether delivery can be restored when autumn rolls in and gas demand rises again.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:00 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Nothing special, just a random ukrainian lady, who works in communal service.
She cleans the park after russian shelling.
My people.
My heroes.
posted by joannemerriam at 9:05 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
She cleans the park after russian shelling.
My people.
My heroes.
posted by joannemerriam at 9:05 AM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
Shoigu? A Tuvan ruling ethnic Russians? You've got to be kidding. Gerasimov? Same problem,
It's usually the Colonels....and then there's the break-up scenarios. The casualties are going to disproportionately hit provinces that aren't Moscow, going by what's been posted in these threads.
Even short of a coup or some other mutiny, though, this can't be good operationally, or for the cohesion of the officer corps. So, I hope he keeps doing it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:05 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's usually the Colonels....and then there's the break-up scenarios. The casualties are going to disproportionately hit provinces that aren't Moscow, going by what's been posted in these threads.
Even short of a coup or some other mutiny, though, this can't be good operationally, or for the cohesion of the officer corps. So, I hope he keeps doing it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:05 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Even if the army decided to make a move against Putin. who's going to be in charge?
Some ethnic Russian politician or oligarch who also opposes Putin. There's obviously been a lot of coups in the course of history, and there are options other than "let a general take power."
I have no reason to think a coup will happen, but the fact that leadership isn't Slavic is largely irrelevant.
posted by mark k at 9:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Some ethnic Russian politician or oligarch who also opposes Putin. There's obviously been a lot of coups in the course of history, and there are options other than "let a general take power."
I have no reason to think a coup will happen, but the fact that leadership isn't Slavic is largely irrelevant.
posted by mark k at 9:07 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Does Putin have any (de facto or actual) designated successors he's grooming to take over? I was under the impression that he didn't designate anyone, and did not prepare anyone for the role, as not to give over power even in the future.
How do you say “apres moi, le deluge” in Russian?
posted by acb at 9:09 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
How do you say “apres moi, le deluge” in Russian?
posted by acb at 9:09 AM on April 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
"Losing control of the military" could mean a bunch of things. Overthrowing Putin is one possibility. Another might be just not going to the war. Is the latter a possibility?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:11 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:11 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine could coordinate with Germany whether it'd be OK
I believe that Germany only gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, while countries such as Austria get as much as 80%. Let's not forget -- most of Europe depends on Russia for its fuel and fertilizer.
posted by hippybear at 9:16 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
I believe that Germany only gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, while countries such as Austria get as much as 80%. Let's not forget -- most of Europe depends on Russia for its fuel and fertilizer.
posted by hippybear at 9:16 AM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Thank you BungaDunga for pointing out the satellite story is a fake… it was briefly on the Telegraph news ticker this morning but that’s probably why it disappeared! I was looking for something interesting to attempt my first link.
posted by pairofshades at 9:17 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 9:17 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's usually the Colonels....and then there's the break-up scenarios. The casualties are going to disproportionately hit provinces that aren't Moscow, going by what's been posted in these threads.
The Russian leadership are certainly shit scared of a breakup of the federation but Russians remain a plurality or majority in almost all of the potential breakaway states. Even the Far Eastern district is three quarters Russian. The ethnic minorities within Russia are taking a disproportionate amount of the causalities from this war but they can't actually do anything about it.
Some ethnic Russian politician or oligarch who also opposes Putin. There's obviously been a lot of coups in the course of history, and there are options other than "let a general take power."
There is no person in Russia that has the personal political loyalty of enough of the army to attempt a coup other than Putin. He's deliberately engineered the political structures to make it difficult for any potential rivals to consolidate power. Even inside the FSB, the premiere intuition of Russian political power, it's almost impossible to generate factions driven by personal loyalty. If your superior gets arrested? You've never heard of them. The loyalty even there is to the position, not to the superior.
I'm not saying that a coup is impossible, it's just that it's an uphill battle all the way, even if nobody wants Putin there. If Swan Lake starts being broadcast on Russia-1 I'll be popping the champagne, I'm just not expecting it any time soon.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:18 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Russian leadership are certainly shit scared of a breakup of the federation but Russians remain a plurality or majority in almost all of the potential breakaway states. Even the Far Eastern district is three quarters Russian. The ethnic minorities within Russia are taking a disproportionate amount of the causalities from this war but they can't actually do anything about it.
Some ethnic Russian politician or oligarch who also opposes Putin. There's obviously been a lot of coups in the course of history, and there are options other than "let a general take power."
There is no person in Russia that has the personal political loyalty of enough of the army to attempt a coup other than Putin. He's deliberately engineered the political structures to make it difficult for any potential rivals to consolidate power. Even inside the FSB, the premiere intuition of Russian political power, it's almost impossible to generate factions driven by personal loyalty. If your superior gets arrested? You've never heard of them. The loyalty even there is to the position, not to the superior.
I'm not saying that a coup is impossible, it's just that it's an uphill battle all the way, even if nobody wants Putin there. If Swan Lake starts being broadcast on Russia-1 I'll be popping the champagne, I'm just not expecting it any time soon.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:18 AM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
Why Swan Lake? Is there a particular significance I’m missing?
posted by Quasirandom at 9:21 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Quasirandom at 9:21 AM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
How do you say “apres moi, le deluge” in Russian?
"We will only use nuclear weapons if faced with an existential threat"
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:22 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
"We will only use nuclear weapons if faced with an existential threat"
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:22 AM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Why Swan Lake? Is there a particular significance I’m missing?
There's a back story.
posted by sukeban at 9:24 AM on April 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
There's a back story.
posted by sukeban at 9:24 AM on April 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
Why Swan Lake? Is there a particular significance I’m missing?
In 1991, during an attempt to overthrow Gorbachev., a continuous loop of Swan Lake was shown on TV.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 9:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [12 favorites]
In 1991, during an attempt to overthrow Gorbachev., a continuous loop of Swan Lake was shown on TV.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 9:26 AM on April 16, 2022 [12 favorites]
Ah, thanks both.
posted by Quasirandom at 9:54 AM on April 16, 2022
posted by Quasirandom at 9:54 AM on April 16, 2022
I live near a recently-decommissioned nuclear power plant (whose decommissioning involved a ton of politics and a years-long public debate I followed closely), and I talked a little bit about the difficulty with restarting German nuclear plants in this earlier thread.
Also, re: Shoigu and coups, keep in mind that Shoigu is in power because he is incompetent. His predecessor, who made a solid attempt at modernizing the military and stopping the constant thievery, was removed because the oligarchs got upset about the loss of graft. Shoigu was put in place not because he's any good at running a military, or popular with the troops; he was put in place because he's a palace functionary who can be relied on to allow the graft to continue unabated, and because as an ethnic Tuvan, he's no threat to Putin no matter how powerful he gets.
It's totally possible Shoigu might survive a coup and still be in the power structure -- he's really good at tacking to follow the prevailing winds. But it won't be because he's popular, or a leader, or out in front of the coup; it'll be because he convinces whoever does lead the coup that he can be useful as a pretty figurehead and that he will say whatever needs to be said and do nothing to interfere with the new leadership, giving them a veneer of continuity. Which is basically what he does now -- look pretty and do nothing to interfere with how people with actual power run the military (into the ground).
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:55 AM on April 16, 2022 [19 favorites]
Also, re: Shoigu and coups, keep in mind that Shoigu is in power because he is incompetent. His predecessor, who made a solid attempt at modernizing the military and stopping the constant thievery, was removed because the oligarchs got upset about the loss of graft. Shoigu was put in place not because he's any good at running a military, or popular with the troops; he was put in place because he's a palace functionary who can be relied on to allow the graft to continue unabated, and because as an ethnic Tuvan, he's no threat to Putin no matter how powerful he gets.
It's totally possible Shoigu might survive a coup and still be in the power structure -- he's really good at tacking to follow the prevailing winds. But it won't be because he's popular, or a leader, or out in front of the coup; it'll be because he convinces whoever does lead the coup that he can be useful as a pretty figurehead and that he will say whatever needs to be said and do nothing to interfere with the new leadership, giving them a veneer of continuity. Which is basically what he does now -- look pretty and do nothing to interfere with how people with actual power run the military (into the ground).
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:55 AM on April 16, 2022 [19 favorites]
it'll be because he convinces whoever does lead the coup that he can be useful as a pretty figurehead and that he will say whatever needs to be said and do nothing to interfere with the new leadership
Kind of like the non-warmongering General in Mars Attacks, "Didn't I tell you, hon? If I just stayed in place and never spoke up, good things are bound to happen!"
Didn't work out so well for that guy either, in the end.
posted by notoriety public at 10:06 AM on April 16, 2022
Kind of like the non-warmongering General in Mars Attacks, "Didn't I tell you, hon? If I just stayed in place and never spoke up, good things are bound to happen!"
Didn't work out so well for that guy either, in the end.
posted by notoriety public at 10:06 AM on April 16, 2022
Does Putin have any (de facto or actual) designated successors he's grooming to take over? I was under the impression that he didn't designate anyone, and did not prepare anyone for the role, as not to give over power even in the future.
Medvedev? He has fallen in and out of favor with Putin over time, but seems to remain popular with the Russian public.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:09 AM on April 16, 2022
Medvedev? He has fallen in and out of favor with Putin over time, but seems to remain popular with the Russian public.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:09 AM on April 16, 2022
The daughters, or their shake-and-bake oligarch husbands? Whichever still has one of those. That would take time, though. They're low profile and publicly academics.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:16 AM on April 16, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:16 AM on April 16, 2022
Medvedev is a stuffed shirt that was specifically chosen to be a spineless patsy for Putin while the constitutional issue of term limits were... worked around. He even threw himself on the funeral pyre back in 2020.
The only thing that could be considered him to be a possible successor is that the 2020 amendments to the Russian constitution specifically nullified the number of presidential terms served for both Putin and Medvedev going forward. However, it also put the term limits back in place rather than "in a row" which was for the Putin-Medvedev switcheroo between 2008-2012. If Medvedev was going to go for "President for Life" a'la Putin there are certainly roadblocks to that which Putin has put in his way.
Those amendments also hand a lot of control back to the Duma who have a LOT of control going forward (for instance they've been given back the ability to choose their own PM) and also attempts to restrain the President in a US style with the Federation Council given a lot more say in things.
It seems like the succession plan is "United Russia will be the power base, we'll figure out the rest from there."
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:27 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
The only thing that could be considered him to be a possible successor is that the 2020 amendments to the Russian constitution specifically nullified the number of presidential terms served for both Putin and Medvedev going forward. However, it also put the term limits back in place rather than "in a row" which was for the Putin-Medvedev switcheroo between 2008-2012. If Medvedev was going to go for "President for Life" a'la Putin there are certainly roadblocks to that which Putin has put in his way.
Those amendments also hand a lot of control back to the Duma who have a LOT of control going forward (for instance they've been given back the ability to choose their own PM) and also attempts to restrain the President in a US style with the Federation Council given a lot more say in things.
It seems like the succession plan is "United Russia will be the power base, we'll figure out the rest from there."
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:27 AM on April 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Comrades, I fear @DarthPutinKGB may have bugged Metafilter.
Day 52 of my 3 day war. I have arrested Admiral of Black Sea fleet & am deciding how severe Defense Minister Shoigu's heart attack will be.posted by snuffleupagus at 10:45 AM on April 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
I remain a master strategist.
Business Insider: Ukrainian pilots launch 'Buy Me A Jet' campaign to help defeat Russia's massive air superiority
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:46 AM on April 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Ukrainian military has launched a crowdfunding campaign to fund the purchase of new fighter jets, say reports.The video
In a video showing destroyed Ukrainian military equipment and devastated homes and towns, a Ukrainian pilot looks into the camera and says, "buy me a fighter jet."
"He continues, "It will help me to protect my sky filled with Russian planes that bomb my land, kill my friends, and destroy our homes and everything I have ever known. "You have a chance to stop it. Give us wings to fight for our sky."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:46 AM on April 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
One of the things abotu Russia-splaining that I find annoying is how some people can expound at length about the awfulness of the 1990s in Russia, with the IMF's technocrats running wild and applying shock therapy, and how it led to this moment, without so much as a word to try to explain why the rest of Eastern Europe, subject to the same obnoxious shock therapy, fared so much better, even such nations as Albania and Moldova. But I think at this point I have my own hypothesis, courtesy of Jane Jacobs and her last book, Dark Age Ahead.
One of the things her book warned about was that we should not expect good governance from states larger than city-states, and she pointed in particular to Prague as an example of a state that will fare better. And I think this moment has borne her out. The Prime Minister of Czechia sits at his desk which is literally a day's bike ride from any point in his country. He can go to any spot along the border and hear at length from his citizens telling him what changes they want regarding what should or should not be allowed across the Czech border. But the act of moving the border itself, with the attendant cost in blood and gore, is outside the range of allowable discourse in Prague, due in no small part to how the resulting fireworks would literally echo inside Prague Castle.
The same is not true of Moscow. While technology allows a ruler in Moscow to get live video feeds on events in Magadan and Khabarovsk, that technology does not provide an impetus for him to give a flying fuck about what he sees. Russia's sheer size allows the Kremlin to entertain notions of redrawing the map around Russia's periphery. That same sheer size, exacerbated by the lack of an Internet at the time, was what caused London and Madrid to make decisions far removed from
those in the imperial periphery affected by them. The 7 Years War was 9 years long in America. For 2 years it raged in Pennsylvania while London and Paris pretended they were at peace in Europe. That is what made the Revolution inevitable in the USA and in Latin America.
So, as Kamil Galeev pointed out, the one scenario that will end with a Kremlin that won't pull shit like this is to have a Russian Divorce. If the Kremlin's control ended at the Urals, with the Far East run from Vladivostok, they'd be less inclined to play mapmaker. And since they are redrawing maps, they have no bitching rights about the rest of the world joining in. The Russians of the Far East were already restive before this war. They're being used as cannon fodder, and the gutting of the Russian army in their area makes them less secure from Chinese or Japanese confrontation.
Some support from outside may be called for.
posted by ocschwar at 12:41 PM on April 16, 2022 [13 favorites]
But who will the Russians of the Far East call for it first? A breakoff supported by China seems more likely than NATO. Or, survival if hostile to China and Russia seems...quixotic.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:48 PM on April 16, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:48 PM on April 16, 2022
How Zelenskiy’s team of TV writers helps his victory message hit home – Influences from Churchill to Tolkien are woven into the Ukrainian president’s compelling video addresses, Luke Harding, The Guardian, 16 Apr 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 1:00 PM on April 16, 2022 [12 favorites]
…On the battlefield, Ukraine’s fortunes have been mixed. Russia’s armed units have been forced to withdraw from the Kyiv region after failing to seize the capital. But they have made significant advances along the Sea of Azov, carving a land corridor from Crimea to separatist-controlled territory in the east, where a Russian offensive is imminent.More details in the article. It’s not just what Zelenskiy says on the world stage, it’s how he says it.
On the information front, however, Ukraine has offered a masterclass in message. Zelenskiy’s speeches to his people, and his addresses to foreign parliaments around the world, have galvanised international support and shored up morale at home. They have been gripping viewing, an unvarnished real-time video blog from Europe’s bloody frontline.
The writer of them is a 38-year-old former journalist and political analyst with fewer than 200 followers on Twitter. In an interview conducted via WhatsApp, Dmytro Lytvyn told the Observer the ideas behind the speeches were Zelenskiy’s: “The president always knows what he wants to say, and how he wants to say it.”
He added: “In the speeches, emotions are most important. And of course the president is author of emotions and the logic of the words.” Other world leaders “might learn how to do it”. In other words they might emulate Zelenskiy’s punchy combination of frankness and emotional power…
posted by cenoxo at 1:00 PM on April 16, 2022 [12 favorites]
ocscgwar, Ukraine isn't a *small* country. Do you have a size limit in mind?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:08 PM on April 16, 2022
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:08 PM on April 16, 2022
Reuters: Russian navy head meets crew of sunken missile cruiser
The Russian defence ministry released a 26-second video showing [Admiral] Yevmenov and two other officers standing outside in front of around 100 sailors on a parade ground. It showed them speaking to one man.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:27 PM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
The ministry did not say when the meeting took place.
Russia has said all of the 500 crew were rescued after the blast late on Wednesday. Ukrainian officials has said some of those on board died but has provided no evidence for the claims.
Two anti-ship missiles?
Massive explosions?
Someone died...
posted by Windopaene at 1:34 PM on April 16, 2022
Massive explosions?
Someone died...
posted by Windopaene at 1:34 PM on April 16, 2022
Turkish ship rescued 54 sailors on Russian cruiser Moskva: Lithuania
"At 1.14 a.m., the cruiser lay on its side, and after half an hour, all the electricity went out. From 2 a.m., the Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser, and at about 3 a.m., Turkey and Romania reported that the ship had completely sunk. The related loss of Russian personnel is still unknown, although there were 485 crew on board (66 of them officers)," Anusauskas said.
They're lying because of course they are. Recall the sinking of the Kursk, Putin's "first lie" according to Boris Kuznetsov.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:42 PM on April 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
"At 1.14 a.m., the cruiser lay on its side, and after half an hour, all the electricity went out. From 2 a.m., the Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser, and at about 3 a.m., Turkey and Romania reported that the ship had completely sunk. The related loss of Russian personnel is still unknown, although there were 485 crew on board (66 of them officers)," Anusauskas said.
They're lying because of course they are. Recall the sinking of the Kursk, Putin's "first lie" according to Boris Kuznetsov.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:42 PM on April 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
ocscgwar, Ukraine isn't a *small* country. Do you have a size limit in mind?
Ukraine is large enough that the people in the east did have legitimate reasons to resent apparent neglect from Kyiv. But it's not so large that Kyiv had anyone playing mapmaker, so the east's issues with Kyiv (which are long moot), were nobody else's problem.
Can't say the same of Russia.
posted by ocschwar at 2:05 PM on April 16, 2022
Ukraine is large enough that the people in the east did have legitimate reasons to resent apparent neglect from Kyiv. But it's not so large that Kyiv had anyone playing mapmaker, so the east's issues with Kyiv (which are long moot), were nobody else's problem.
Can't say the same of Russia.
posted by ocschwar at 2:05 PM on April 16, 2022
I get so resentful, because US Americans discussing nuclear power in the EU and in wider Europe is such a futile exercise. It can be discussed but without a basic grasp WHY they were shut down, and no, it was not (simply) Fukushima.
One of the Basic issues is, no one in the EU or wider Europe wants the radioactive waste permanently on their soil. In Germany, there are so called Zwischenlager (interim storage), but no Endlager (final storage for the next million years , literally).
I take personal offence at the comment: Just get some electric heaters. Yeah, sure, a real nobrainer, let them eat cake.
I wonder why stupid Austrians don't think of this themselves.
switching those 450 000 Viennese households which currently use gas from gas to other energy sources has in fact been discussed at least since 2015, and is currently being planned/a strategy for the next decade in place, due to increasing prices and to meet climate goals. However it is complex, and not simple.
Let me explain:
As does the vast majority of Viennese , i rent my apartment. The building has about 30 units, using gas to heat, to get hot water and to cook.
I cannot financially afford to disconnect from the common gas mains supplying the building on my own. It would roughly cost one annual salary. And even If i could, should i move, i would not get this back from the owner's of the building.
And then there is the question of an alternative source of energy.
Currently, the EU is creating a buyers group, to source gas from other countries.
Also, Russian oil will be less difficult to replace than gas, simply because oil is shipped by sea not in a pipeline.
Lastly, then i will get off the soap box: there is a famous ironic meme from the time before memes: "der Strom kommt aus der Steckdose" (electricity is supplied by the wall outlet). Well, sadly this is not the case.
posted by 15L06 at 2:08 PM on April 16, 2022 [37 favorites]
One of the Basic issues is, no one in the EU or wider Europe wants the radioactive waste permanently on their soil. In Germany, there are so called Zwischenlager (interim storage), but no Endlager (final storage for the next million years , literally).
I take personal offence at the comment: Just get some electric heaters. Yeah, sure, a real nobrainer, let them eat cake.
I wonder why stupid Austrians don't think of this themselves.
switching those 450 000 Viennese households which currently use gas from gas to other energy sources has in fact been discussed at least since 2015, and is currently being planned/a strategy for the next decade in place, due to increasing prices and to meet climate goals. However it is complex, and not simple.
Let me explain:
As does the vast majority of Viennese , i rent my apartment. The building has about 30 units, using gas to heat, to get hot water and to cook.
I cannot financially afford to disconnect from the common gas mains supplying the building on my own. It would roughly cost one annual salary. And even If i could, should i move, i would not get this back from the owner's of the building.
And then there is the question of an alternative source of energy.
Currently, the EU is creating a buyers group, to source gas from other countries.
Also, Russian oil will be less difficult to replace than gas, simply because oil is shipped by sea not in a pipeline.
Lastly, then i will get off the soap box: there is a famous ironic meme from the time before memes: "der Strom kommt aus der Steckdose" (electricity is supplied by the wall outlet). Well, sadly this is not the case.
posted by 15L06 at 2:08 PM on April 16, 2022 [37 favorites]
I think I am the most enraged by the Russians getting bent that their shit, in Russia, is being attacked...
Isn't that how war works?
posted by Windopaene at 2:22 PM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
Isn't that how war works?
posted by Windopaene at 2:22 PM on April 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
You will not often see an abuser lose their shit more completely than when their victim defends themselves.
posted by tclark at 2:24 PM on April 16, 2022 [69 favorites]
posted by tclark at 2:24 PM on April 16, 2022 [69 favorites]
Actually, i came in here to share this heartbreaking article by Nataliya Gumenyuk, from 15 April.
They Were Killed For Us’: Ukrainians Bury Their Dead — and Accuse Russian Army of Mass Murder
We owe it to the dead and missing to tell their stories and to try to find some measure of justice, no matter how long it takes
Her words go straight to the heart.
posted by 15L06 at 2:40 PM on April 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
They Were Killed For Us’: Ukrainians Bury Their Dead — and Accuse Russian Army of Mass Murder
We owe it to the dead and missing to tell their stories and to try to find some measure of justice, no matter how long it takes
Her words go straight to the heart.
posted by 15L06 at 2:40 PM on April 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
You will not often see an abuser lose their shit more completely than when their victim defends themselves.
It's what they're waiting for. They then point to the victim's reaction as (1) justification for future aggression, (2) retroactive justification for past aggression, (3) evidence that the abuser is the true victim. This dynamic plays out like clockwork - the abuser pushes the victim past their breaking point, the victim acts in self-defense (or just lashes out), the abuser centers that action and makes it the focus of all subsequent conversation. From tone policing to how civil rights protests are literally policed (did you guys hear about the loooooooooting???), it's just an absolutely transparent and predictable cliché, the first tool in any bully's toolkit. It's sometimes referred to by the acronym DARVO (the RVO part).
It's vile. It's already happening. (See above, crazy-eyes grandpa suggesting the sinking of the Moskva justifies... Russia going to war against Ukraine).
posted by prefpara at 2:44 PM on April 16, 2022 [35 favorites]
It's what they're waiting for. They then point to the victim's reaction as (1) justification for future aggression, (2) retroactive justification for past aggression, (3) evidence that the abuser is the true victim. This dynamic plays out like clockwork - the abuser pushes the victim past their breaking point, the victim acts in self-defense (or just lashes out), the abuser centers that action and makes it the focus of all subsequent conversation. From tone policing to how civil rights protests are literally policed (did you guys hear about the loooooooooting???), it's just an absolutely transparent and predictable cliché, the first tool in any bully's toolkit. It's sometimes referred to by the acronym DARVO (the RVO part).
It's vile. It's already happening. (See above, crazy-eyes grandpa suggesting the sinking of the Moskva justifies... Russia going to war against Ukraine).
posted by prefpara at 2:44 PM on April 16, 2022 [35 favorites]
Hey! They're gonna get you too; another Vlad* bites the dust:
@JackDetsch: Ukrainian troops have killed Russian Maj. Gen. Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of the Eighth Army, Russian state media reports. Frolov would be the 8th Russian General killed in Ukraine in 51 days of war.
*yes I know
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:59 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
@JackDetsch: Ukrainian troops have killed Russian Maj. Gen. Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of the Eighth Army, Russian state media reports. Frolov would be the 8th Russian General killed in Ukraine in 51 days of war.
*yes I know
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:59 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Still, you slap me in the face so I kick you in the balls. Shocked? What exactly was part 2 of your plan? I promise you it was dumb as shit.
Maybe it's the case where the abuser doesn't understand that their petty tyranny doesn't extend beyond their household. So they pull this bullshit down at the bar expecting submission and get their ass kicked.
posted by adept256 at 3:03 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Maybe it's the case where the abuser doesn't understand that their petty tyranny doesn't extend beyond their household. So they pull this bullshit down at the bar expecting submission and get their ass kicked.
posted by adept256 at 3:03 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
And then the whole neighborhood gets vaporized. I've handled DV matters (civilly). This isn't a great analogy to push on too hard by extension.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:13 PM on April 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:13 PM on April 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
Forbes Ukraine [Google Translate English] estimates the cost of the Russian cruiser Moskva at $750 million. More about the ship at Wikipedia.
posted by cenoxo at 3:22 PM on April 16, 2022
posted by cenoxo at 3:22 PM on April 16, 2022
Independent journalist Olga Tokariuk on Twitter (among others)
RUSI Assoc. Fellow Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 on Twitter
Ampules with chemical agents, including sarin, found in a village of Bilky, Sumy region, after the retreat of Russian military. This was stated by Yuri Bova, the mayor of Trostianets town in Sumy region. He said Ukraine's security services SBU are investigating
RUSI Assoc. Fellow Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 on Twitter
“Ampoules” of Sarin makes zero senseposted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:36 PM on April 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
The ampoules thing is suspicious. Did they find a test kit for detecting CWAs? These have glass tubes in them not unlike “ampoules”
Stuff like this that might even have names of chemical warfare agents on them, but they are colorimetric tubes for DETECTION
1420 has a stark new video out directly confronting men on the street about reports of rape by Russian troops, couched as a hypothetical. No one is willing to endorse it, but of interest is that is where the different interviewees go from there given the question's phrasing -- condemnation, denial, doubt, equivocation, explanation, justification etc.
Also asked about is a news story of a British man offering refugees lodging in exchange for sex, which I have no idea if is legit, or there to appease Russian censors, or both.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:47 PM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also asked about is a news story of a British man offering refugees lodging in exchange for sex, which I have no idea if is legit, or there to appease Russian censors, or both.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:47 PM on April 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Romania is probably going to get some serious investment to see what they can do to rapidly increase their gas production. They have some substantial deposits in the Black Sea and their existing fields could probably be boosted with some co2 injection or other techniques used in the USA. It isn’t anywhere close to Russias overall reserves; but long term you don’t want those reserves to be burned anyway because of global warming .
posted by interogative mood at 5:20 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:20 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
"One of the Basic issues is, no one in the EU or wider Europe wants the radioactive waste permanently on their soil. In Germany, there are so called Zwischenlager (interim storage), but no Endlager (final storage for the next million years , literally)."
This piece actually feels solvable at the present moment (and possibly at no other time) -- surely if Germany would agree to turn off Russian gas completely, the US would agree to take some amount of EU nuclear waste to its Nevada disposal location. But that's not even an option because increasing capacity would take ten years; it doesn't solve the problem of people needing electricity/heat now, not ten years from now.
I do think some "save lives: take a shorter shower" type public messaging would be great, although I have no idea how much individual consumers could do; generally you want the big savings from large industrial players, not the small savings from individual home users. But simultaneously running a "take a shorter shower and turn your heat down one degree" campaign with the government negotiating industrial/commercial energy saving measures would both put pressure on industrial/commercial players to play ball AND make people more willing to put up with some minor inconveniences (half the lights in the supermarket turned off, say), because "we're all in this together."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:37 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
This piece actually feels solvable at the present moment (and possibly at no other time) -- surely if Germany would agree to turn off Russian gas completely, the US would agree to take some amount of EU nuclear waste to its Nevada disposal location. But that's not even an option because increasing capacity would take ten years; it doesn't solve the problem of people needing electricity/heat now, not ten years from now.
I do think some "save lives: take a shorter shower" type public messaging would be great, although I have no idea how much individual consumers could do; generally you want the big savings from large industrial players, not the small savings from individual home users. But simultaneously running a "take a shorter shower and turn your heat down one degree" campaign with the government negotiating industrial/commercial energy saving measures would both put pressure on industrial/commercial players to play ball AND make people more willing to put up with some minor inconveniences (half the lights in the supermarket turned off, say), because "we're all in this together."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:37 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Speculation question, after all the Russian breakup talk upthread:
Are there parts of the Federation that are (or could be) more or less self-governing?
This might be based on a schoolbook history stereotype about 500 years of centralized power. But if, I dunno, Yakutia didn't hear from Moscow for a year, would they notice?
I ask because it seems like Russia is what they call a low-trust society. But is there some level of regional administration that's functional?
Could St Petersburg become the capital of a handful of northwestern oblasts as a Novo-Novgorod? Without a lot of bloodshed, and as functional as the post-Soviet Baltics?
Some modernized Hanseatic League of city-states surrounding the Sea of Okhotsk that does just fine without ever receiving another order from east of the Urals?
posted by bartleby at 5:41 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Are there parts of the Federation that are (or could be) more or less self-governing?
This might be based on a schoolbook history stereotype about 500 years of centralized power. But if, I dunno, Yakutia didn't hear from Moscow for a year, would they notice?
I ask because it seems like Russia is what they call a low-trust society. But is there some level of regional administration that's functional?
Could St Petersburg become the capital of a handful of northwestern oblasts as a Novo-Novgorod? Without a lot of bloodshed, and as functional as the post-Soviet Baltics?
Some modernized Hanseatic League of city-states surrounding the Sea of Okhotsk that does just fine without ever receiving another order from east of the Urals?
posted by bartleby at 5:41 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also asked about is a news story of a British man offering refugees lodging in exchange for sex, which I have no idea if is legit
Likely legit, due to Britain's bizarre refugee scheme.
The Guardian: Stop matching lone female Ukraine refugees with single men, UK told
Likely legit, due to Britain's bizarre refugee scheme.
The Guardian: Stop matching lone female Ukraine refugees with single men, UK told
Under the government’s Homes for Ukraine scheme, British hosts must link up with Ukrainian refugees themselves, leaving tens of thousands of people to resort to unregulated social media groups to connect.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:41 PM on April 16, 2022 [15 favorites]
A government-backed matching service run by the charity Reset offers to match UK hosts with refugees but has been operating for just over a week. Those who want to move to the UK must have a sponsor before applying for a visa.
In a statement, the UNHCR said there was a need for adequate safeguards and vetting measures to be in place against exploitation, as well as adequate support for sponsors. “[The] UNHCR believes that a more appropriate matching process could be put in place by ensuring that women and women with children are matched with families or couples, rather than with single men.
Are there parts of the Federation that are (or could be) more or less self-governing?
I can't speak to how accurate this is, but here's Caspian Report on "What Would Happen if Russia Collapsed" [June 2021]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:43 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
I can't speak to how accurate this is, but here's Caspian Report on "What Would Happen if Russia Collapsed" [June 2021]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:43 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also asked about is a news story of a British man offering refugees lodging in exchange for sex, which I have no idea if is legit, or there to appease Russian censors, or both.
It was reported in the Times (paywalled, archive.org doesn't seem to work) The British gov'ts refugee matching scheme wasn't built with enough safeguards, despite warnings from UNHCR and other groups.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 5:44 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
It was reported in the Times (paywalled, archive.org doesn't seem to work) The British gov'ts refugee matching scheme wasn't built with enough safeguards, despite warnings from UNHCR and other groups.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 5:44 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here's a mirror link for the Times article.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:47 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:47 PM on April 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
the US would agree to take some amount of EU nuclear waste to its Nevada disposal location
The US doesn't really have a disposal location for high-level nuclear waste. Yucca Mountain has been delayed indefinitely and the Biden administration has pivoted away from it, though to where I have no idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:18 PM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
The US doesn't really have a disposal location for high-level nuclear waste. Yucca Mountain has been delayed indefinitely and the Biden administration has pivoted away from it, though to where I have no idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:18 PM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
Here's a brief CNBC report on where all that was as of Dec. 2021.
There were also a few comments about it today down here in MeTa.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:32 PM on April 16, 2022
There were also a few comments about it today down here in MeTa.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:32 PM on April 16, 2022
Defense economist, youTuber Peron, has a new vid out: The Economics of the Ukraine War (Part 1).
Some are insisting sanctions are achieving nothing, and that Russia is well placed to outlast Ukraine. Others are convinced that Russia's war will grind to a halt under the weight of these sanctions. In this video, I look at... the tactics Russia has been using to minimise the impact of sanctions, & the basic economic disparities between Russia and the Western powers backing Ukraine. Russia is economically outmatched, but it has a variety of tools and strengths to leverage, including energy exports and a defence sector that has spent years moving towards self-reliance.
tl;dw - Russia is screwed in a long war as long as the West has the will to keep supplying Ukraine. However the video gives some of the numbers behind the conclusion which are stark. Also he has a number of other insights on the conflict e.g. he pokes holes in current narratives about Russia "just" wanting the oil/gas in the Donbas.
posted by storybored at 7:23 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Some are insisting sanctions are achieving nothing, and that Russia is well placed to outlast Ukraine. Others are convinced that Russia's war will grind to a halt under the weight of these sanctions. In this video, I look at... the tactics Russia has been using to minimise the impact of sanctions, & the basic economic disparities between Russia and the Western powers backing Ukraine. Russia is economically outmatched, but it has a variety of tools and strengths to leverage, including energy exports and a defence sector that has spent years moving towards self-reliance.
tl;dw - Russia is screwed in a long war as long as the West has the will to keep supplying Ukraine. However the video gives some of the numbers behind the conclusion which are stark. Also he has a number of other insights on the conflict e.g. he pokes holes in current narratives about Russia "just" wanting the oil/gas in the Donbas.
posted by storybored at 7:23 PM on April 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
A contemplative and quietly beautiful short video where a resident of Kharkiv cleans her balcony of recent wreckage and plants some onions . . . and then air raid sirens blare.
posted by ferdydurke at 8:25 PM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by ferdydurke at 8:25 PM on April 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
Eyebrows McGee: simultaneously running a "take a shorter shower and turn your heat down one degree" campaign with the government negotiating industrial/commercial energy saving measures
That is happening here in the Netherlands. Not sure how effective it is, but we're doing this. Apparently, for example, the heat has been or will be lowered by one degree in all buildings used by all branches of the state.
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:13 AM on April 17, 2022 [14 favorites]
That is happening here in the Netherlands. Not sure how effective it is, but we're doing this. Apparently, for example, the heat has been or will be lowered by one degree in all buildings used by all branches of the state.
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:13 AM on April 17, 2022 [14 favorites]
This morning, I re-read this article from The New Statesman: “Russia cannot afford to lose, so we need a kind of a victory”: Sergey Karaganov on what Putin wants
(It was in a previous thread, I must have kept the tab open because I felt too angry reading it the first time. He is a bully who is so full of bs, and directly threatens Poland).
This time, it made me think about the delusional thinking of the Russians, which hasn't changed since the Cold War. Now, as then, the Russians know far less about us than we know about them (and I am including Ukraine in "us"). Some of it is because of scale, and that is to some extent the same with the US. In a country that spans a continent (or two), and has a lot of military might, you don't need to be as interested in the outside world. That lack of curiosity is dangerous, as the West should have learnt since the growth of al Qaeda since the mid-nineties.
But another part of it is more baffling. I mean, the Russians literally had spies inside the White House with Trump, and still they seem to think they can handle a war with NATO? It makes no sense at all.
The only thing that does make sense is that they thought they would get away with it, and now they are stuck, with no way out. In a way, I feel Karaganov hints at this, and then comes with a preposterous suggestion for how we could help Russia find a way out.
Specially, I don't get that no one in Russia seems to understand the economy of this. I guess there are real incitements to not do real economic analysis in Russia (with the kleptocracy and all that), but someone over there must be aware that their economy can't hold up to a prolonged war and sanctions. Or maybe they know, and are reckless gamblers who reckoned this is the last chance before Europe weans itself off of fossile fuels.
posted by mumimor at 3:03 AM on April 17, 2022 [20 favorites]
(It was in a previous thread, I must have kept the tab open because I felt too angry reading it the first time. He is a bully who is so full of bs, and directly threatens Poland).
This time, it made me think about the delusional thinking of the Russians, which hasn't changed since the Cold War. Now, as then, the Russians know far less about us than we know about them (and I am including Ukraine in "us"). Some of it is because of scale, and that is to some extent the same with the US. In a country that spans a continent (or two), and has a lot of military might, you don't need to be as interested in the outside world. That lack of curiosity is dangerous, as the West should have learnt since the growth of al Qaeda since the mid-nineties.
But another part of it is more baffling. I mean, the Russians literally had spies inside the White House with Trump, and still they seem to think they can handle a war with NATO? It makes no sense at all.
The only thing that does make sense is that they thought they would get away with it, and now they are stuck, with no way out. In a way, I feel Karaganov hints at this, and then comes with a preposterous suggestion for how we could help Russia find a way out.
Specially, I don't get that no one in Russia seems to understand the economy of this. I guess there are real incitements to not do real economic analysis in Russia (with the kleptocracy and all that), but someone over there must be aware that their economy can't hold up to a prolonged war and sanctions. Or maybe they know, and are reckless gamblers who reckoned this is the last chance before Europe weans itself off of fossile fuels.
posted by mumimor at 3:03 AM on April 17, 2022 [20 favorites]
how we could help Russia find a way out.
This sentiment seems to pop up a lot and often (I’m not saying that is the case here) as though it’s totally normal - that the aggressor needs to be appeased instead of neutralized (for whatever definition of neutralized you may favor). Because there is no appeasement that will last, there is no ‚peaceful‘ resolution.
I never had strong feeling about Putin or Russia but lately the coin has dropped and I feel strongly that this guy? He‘s bad for business. And by business I mean civilization. And by civilization I mean any nation/coalition of that aspires to be run by laws.
So I have a request to push back against this phrase. I know, “but he’s got Nukes!” But we, the west, have all the other shit he and his cohort wants. There’s more than one way to … you know, do this
posted by From Bklyn at 5:15 AM on April 17, 2022 [22 favorites]
This sentiment seems to pop up a lot and often (I’m not saying that is the case here) as though it’s totally normal - that the aggressor needs to be appeased instead of neutralized (for whatever definition of neutralized you may favor). Because there is no appeasement that will last, there is no ‚peaceful‘ resolution.
I never had strong feeling about Putin or Russia but lately the coin has dropped and I feel strongly that this guy? He‘s bad for business. And by business I mean civilization. And by civilization I mean any nation/coalition of that aspires to be run by laws.
So I have a request to push back against this phrase. I know, “but he’s got Nukes!” But we, the west, have all the other shit he and his cohort wants. There’s more than one way to … you know, do this
posted by From Bklyn at 5:15 AM on April 17, 2022 [22 favorites]
So I have a request to push back against this phrase. I know, “but he’s got Nukes!” But we, the west, have all the other shit he and his cohort wants. There’s more than one way to … you know, do this
I totally agree. Let's do it.
posted by mumimor at 5:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
I totally agree. Let's do it.
posted by mumimor at 5:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
I agree too!!!!
posted by pairofshades at 5:51 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 5:51 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukrainian tank girl soldier
And 1,000 kangaroo ear headbands were launched into the international post
Operator Starsky [of Ukraine MoD public affairs] pays a return visit to Grandpa Savkovych in liberated Romanivka with gifts from well-wishers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:02 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
And 1,000 kangaroo ear headbands were launched into the international post
Operator Starsky [of Ukraine MoD public affairs] pays a return visit to Grandpa Savkovych in liberated Romanivka with gifts from well-wishers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:02 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
In awful news, it seems like Russia is preparing to launch a final assault on the defenders in the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol. Excerpt:
Russia's Ministry of Defense confirmed Sunday that an ultimatum for Ukrainian soldiers still resisting an unrelenting assault in parts of the devastated southeastern city to surrender had been ignored.posted by Kattullus at 6:35 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
In a statement, it said that the surrounded Ukrainian soldiers at the Azovstal plant "were offered to voluntarily lay down arms and surrender in order to save their lives."
"However, the Kiev nationalist regime, according to the radio intercept, forbade negotiations about surrendering," the Ministry claimed.
It also asserted that according to Ukrainian soldiers who had previously surrendered "there are up to 400 foreign mercenaries who joined the Ukrainian forces" trapped at the plant. including Europeans and Canadians. "In case of further resistance, all of them will be eliminated," it said.
Earlier Sunday, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol rejected the Russian ultimatum. Petro Andriushchenko said on Telegram that "as of today, our defenders continue to hold the defense."
Strange times in Kherson:
Geopolicy wonk Dmitri Alperovitch on Twitter
Geopolicy wonk Dmitri Alperovitch on Twitter
Ludmila Denisova, Ukrainian Parliament’s Commissioner for Human Rights, says that the Russians are planning to hold an independence referendum in Kherson during May 1-May 10 to create another DNR and LNR like statelet in southern Ukraine. Ballots are reportedly being printedThe Kyiv Independent on Twitter
⚡️Mykolaiv Oblast governor reports shootout between Russian troops, Russia's proxies in neighboring region.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:56 AM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
According to Vitaliy Kim, shooting between the Russian military and forces of the Russian-occupied areas in Donbas took place in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast.
Mariupol's defenders are fighting to the last because after it falls the Russians can call for a cease fire and peace treaty with the current borders and have their land bridge to Crimea. They wouldn't get Sievierodonetsk but at the same time the Russian attempts to encircle the 30,000 or so Ukrainian soldiers in the Luhansk Oblast are failing badly. I think the West would probably force Ukraine to accept the treaty by withdrawing support if they don't agree.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:03 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:03 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
Given that Zolodenskyy's most recent statements have been about repelling the invaders from their country, I'm not sure Ukraine would be willing to have yet more territory nibbled from itself for the second time in less than a decade, regardless of what the West might want.
posted by hippybear at 8:15 AM on April 17, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 8:15 AM on April 17, 2022 [11 favorites]
their land bridge to Crimea.
It'd be a damn shame if something happened to their sea bridge in the meantime
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:17 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
It'd be a damn shame if something happened to their sea bridge in the meantime
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:17 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
I also think Ukraine could call the west's bluff and say, no peace treaty, pull support at the risk of putin encroaching on the rest of Europe.
posted by WeekendJen at 8:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by WeekendJen at 8:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm not seeing anyone (except Orban/Hungary) wanting to appease the Russians. Is there something I am missing?
posted by mumimor at 8:21 AM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 8:21 AM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
"Off ramp" -- all the talk of how to stop all the killing by giving Putin something he can use to "save face" and walk away or split Ukraine. Seems to be less in the last couple weeks, but appeasement will not be an unpopular discussion in some sectors if Russia gives any hint. But for many this is a full on existential proxy war.
posted by sammyo at 8:28 AM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 8:28 AM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mumimor, I think maybe also the Germans quietly in the background.
posted by pairofshades at 8:29 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 8:29 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
From here, that's my understanding of the complaint -- mostly Germany, sotto voce and around energy. And maybe not entirely about action now, but trying to avoid tearing up structures that would allow things to 'get back to normal' quickly (and so the implication that they can or should).
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:36 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:36 AM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
I also think Ukraine could call the west's bluff and say, no peace treaty, pull support at the risk of putin encroaching on the rest of Europe.
The problem is, for all the bluster and saber rattling, that the EU/NATO is pretty safe. The West knows it and Russia knows it. Why hasn't Putin touched Estonia with little green men despite it being way smaller than Ukraine despite having territories with huge Russian speaking populations to "protect" and "liberate"? Because everyone knows an war of aggression against the EU/NATO is a folly.
Why is that a problem? Because anything outside the EU/NATO bubble is up for grabs. Moldova, Georgia and the rest of the Caucasus, the stans of Central Asia. Even if Putin only gets a small slice of Ukraine there's still way more imperialism to come and the West/NATO have clearly shown if you're not in you're on your own. Plus Scholz is practically salivating at normalizing Russia back into the world. Germany knows there's no threat to themselves by enabling Russia and Russian energy is basically driving Germany's industrial output. It's like a fucking Diet Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. All of the imperialism, none of the nasty war with the allies.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:46 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
The problem is, for all the bluster and saber rattling, that the EU/NATO is pretty safe. The West knows it and Russia knows it. Why hasn't Putin touched Estonia with little green men despite it being way smaller than Ukraine despite having territories with huge Russian speaking populations to "protect" and "liberate"? Because everyone knows an war of aggression against the EU/NATO is a folly.
Why is that a problem? Because anything outside the EU/NATO bubble is up for grabs. Moldova, Georgia and the rest of the Caucasus, the stans of Central Asia. Even if Putin only gets a small slice of Ukraine there's still way more imperialism to come and the West/NATO have clearly shown if you're not in you're on your own. Plus Scholz is practically salivating at normalizing Russia back into the world. Germany knows there's no threat to themselves by enabling Russia and Russian energy is basically driving Germany's industrial output. It's like a fucking Diet Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. All of the imperialism, none of the nasty war with the allies.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:46 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
If putin splits Ukraine now, the system is going to split Europe in a few years. Probably not by blatant dumb invasion tactics, but by legitimizing success of fascist rhetoric and ideals. Russia loves to back far right assholes is other countries, either openly or covertly.
posted by WeekendJen at 8:50 AM on April 17, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by WeekendJen at 8:50 AM on April 17, 2022 [21 favorites]
I suppose the runoff in France could also be seen as a referendum on whether to appease Putin?
Which sends some historical chills up my spine. Excuse me while I go look for my cats.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
Which sends some historical chills up my spine. Excuse me while I go look for my cats.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
Appease
appeasement never works, it just doesn’t. To one side it’s ‘appeasement’ and a return to business to the other side it’s a shorter or longer delay.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:26 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
appeasement never works, it just doesn’t. To one side it’s ‘appeasement’ and a return to business to the other side it’s a shorter or longer delay.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:26 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
Your Childhood Pet Rock: Plus Scholz is practically salivating at normalizing Russia back into the world. Germany knows there's no threat to themselves by enabling Russia and Russian energy is basically driving Germany's industrial output. It's like a fucking Diet Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. All of the imperialism, none of the nasty war with the allies.
This isn’t my read. Based on discussions I’ve followed on the EU energy situation during the last decade or so, Scholz has taken German policy far, far further towards disentangling Germany from Russian carbon fuels than almost anyone would’ve thought possible, even as late as February of this year.
As far as I can tell, Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government has a similar take. During the speech where Zelenskyy excoriated Orban, he said something like that Germany could do better, but were getting there.
During the last 20 years, Germany bet that integrating Russia into the larger EU energy framework would neutralize them as a threat. Clearly, that failed. I have my criticisms of Scholz, but I’ll give him credit for having pivoted the whole of Germany’s Russia policy in just a matter of days. He should push further, but perhaps a pushier politician wouldn’t have been able to pull off that radical pivot.
posted by Kattullus at 9:33 AM on April 17, 2022 [14 favorites]
This isn’t my read. Based on discussions I’ve followed on the EU energy situation during the last decade or so, Scholz has taken German policy far, far further towards disentangling Germany from Russian carbon fuels than almost anyone would’ve thought possible, even as late as February of this year.
As far as I can tell, Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government has a similar take. During the speech where Zelenskyy excoriated Orban, he said something like that Germany could do better, but were getting there.
During the last 20 years, Germany bet that integrating Russia into the larger EU energy framework would neutralize them as a threat. Clearly, that failed. I have my criticisms of Scholz, but I’ll give him credit for having pivoted the whole of Germany’s Russia policy in just a matter of days. He should push further, but perhaps a pushier politician wouldn’t have been able to pull off that radical pivot.
posted by Kattullus at 9:33 AM on April 17, 2022 [14 favorites]
I’m skeptical that US and UK political dynamics would be willing to go along with some ceasefire following the fall of Mariupol and then a return to business as usual with Russia. I suspect that there is a significant faction in NATO and the EU that agrees. There might be a short term hardening of the front lines but there seems to be a determination to give Ukraine the heavy weapons it needs to push Russia back to at least the Feb 23 borders.
posted by interogative mood at 9:40 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:40 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
This isn’t my read. Based on discussions I’ve followed on the EU energy situation during the last decade or so, Scholz has taken German policy far, far further towards disentangling Germany from Russian carbon fuels than almost anyone would’ve thought possible, even as late as February of this year.
You're not wrong but I think there's a big gulf between pledges and action. A lot of the moves that Germany says they're going to make are going to require a lot of consistent political and economic effort and there are a lot of well connected people in the party structure who will be putting all of their efforts against the de-Russification of Germany energy.
I might just reading too much into how slowly German leadership has been slow-walking arms supplies to Ukraine. Why Scholz wants to hold up Rheinmetall from delivering everything they can output to Ukraine is beyond my comprehension. Two thirds of Germans want their leaders to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine but the SPD just keep acting like someone who is trying to stay within the good graces of both sides. Why? The only real reason to stay in Russia's good graces going forward is if you intend to keep sucking down their energy supplies. Once the war is over there's going to be a massive glut of energy that Russia will be trying to sell. Sweetheart deals to EU countries and powerful lobbyists are going to be a very powerful force to bring Russia back into the economic fold.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:47 AM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
You're not wrong but I think there's a big gulf between pledges and action. A lot of the moves that Germany says they're going to make are going to require a lot of consistent political and economic effort and there are a lot of well connected people in the party structure who will be putting all of their efforts against the de-Russification of Germany energy.
I might just reading too much into how slowly German leadership has been slow-walking arms supplies to Ukraine. Why Scholz wants to hold up Rheinmetall from delivering everything they can output to Ukraine is beyond my comprehension. Two thirds of Germans want their leaders to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine but the SPD just keep acting like someone who is trying to stay within the good graces of both sides. Why? The only real reason to stay in Russia's good graces going forward is if you intend to keep sucking down their energy supplies. Once the war is over there's going to be a massive glut of energy that Russia will be trying to sell. Sweetheart deals to EU countries and powerful lobbyists are going to be a very powerful force to bring Russia back into the economic fold.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:47 AM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
--- Dangeld, Kipling
posted by SPrintF at 9:49 AM on April 17, 2022 [17 favorites]
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
--- Dangeld, Kipling
posted by SPrintF at 9:49 AM on April 17, 2022 [17 favorites]
Mariupol's defenders are fighting to the last because after it falls the Russians can call for a cease fire and peace treaty with the current borders and have their land bridge to Crimea
I think it is also highly likely that Mariupol's defenders, having seen what the Russians have done to the once-thriving city of Mariupol, will fight to the last man to attempt to slow the Russians just a little more from doing this to other Ukrainian cities.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have been doing far better at hit-and-run, guerilla-style tactics than on assaulting defended positions. I don't believe that they can relieve Mariupol, or even drop them food. This will go down in modern history as an example of the sheer and absolute brutality of siege warfare, and it is a reason we must continue to resist and to supply the Ukrainians. Dictators the world over must not learn that this is an acceptable tactic.
posted by corb at 10:23 AM on April 17, 2022 [20 favorites]
I think it is also highly likely that Mariupol's defenders, having seen what the Russians have done to the once-thriving city of Mariupol, will fight to the last man to attempt to slow the Russians just a little more from doing this to other Ukrainian cities.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have been doing far better at hit-and-run, guerilla-style tactics than on assaulting defended positions. I don't believe that they can relieve Mariupol, or even drop them food. This will go down in modern history as an example of the sheer and absolute brutality of siege warfare, and it is a reason we must continue to resist and to supply the Ukrainians. Dictators the world over must not learn that this is an acceptable tactic.
posted by corb at 10:23 AM on April 17, 2022 [20 favorites]
You never get rid of the Dane.
As a Dane, I can't support that. Also, it seems like the Saxons were a bunch of sentimental idiots who believed in magic, and let the Normans run over them the very same year the Danes "left". Left only in the sense that they kept on living in England and probably contributed to the welfare of the country.
(Tongues in both cheeks and also: the past was a different country. In general, nationalism has done us no good in the last 40 years at the least, and the Russian justification for this is Russian nationalism. Self-determination is a different animal).
posted by mumimor at 10:26 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
As a Dane, I can't support that. Also, it seems like the Saxons were a bunch of sentimental idiots who believed in magic, and let the Normans run over them the very same year the Danes "left". Left only in the sense that they kept on living in England and probably contributed to the welfare of the country.
(Tongues in both cheeks and also: the past was a different country. In general, nationalism has done us no good in the last 40 years at the least, and the Russian justification for this is Russian nationalism. Self-determination is a different animal).
posted by mumimor at 10:26 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Karen DeYoung and Michael Birnbaum, Washington Post: U.S., allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia.
Nearly two months into Vladimir Putin’s brutal assault on Ukraine, the Biden administration and its European allies have begun planning for a far different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it as a matter of long-term strategy. …posted by mbrubeck at 10:53 AM on April 17, 2022 [16 favorites]
“We thought interdependence, connectiveness, would be conducive to stability because we had correlating interests. Now, we’ve seen this is not the case. Russia was highly connected with Europe, a globalized country,” [a senior European official] said. “Interdependence, we’ve now seen, can entail severe risks, if a country is ruthless enough. … We have to adapt to a situation that is absolutely new.”
Perhaps post Putin a nuke reduction may be possible. 100 nukes to remove a sanction. Unlikely with appeasement.
posted by sammyo at 11:04 AM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 11:04 AM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
I just finished reading and rereading this interview with Sergei Loiko: “Grandfather came with a Russian passport and wants to join the defense”
Link should take you to the automatic Google translation, there is the occasional odd turn of phrase or use of pronoun but othwise very readable English.
The article, in which Loiko talks about volunteering in the Ukraine Army, what he has seen, and also about publishing interviews with his comrades in Facebook, is mostly impressive to me for his openness and authenticity as a person and how war has changed him.
More about Sergei Loiko. (Wikipedia)
posted by 15L06 at 11:06 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Link should take you to the automatic Google translation, there is the occasional odd turn of phrase or use of pronoun but othwise very readable English.
The article, in which Loiko talks about volunteering in the Ukraine Army, what he has seen, and also about publishing interviews with his comrades in Facebook, is mostly impressive to me for his openness and authenticity as a person and how war has changed him.
More about Sergei Loiko. (Wikipedia)
posted by 15L06 at 11:06 AM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
I really feel like the Germans can be so capable of saying one thing and doing another, and will just do anything to avoid turning off that gas. When Ursula Von Der Leyen went to Ukraine last week to meet Zelensky it was the same week they were really discussing the next round of sanctions and the pressure was on about the gas and (knowing she was from Merkel’s cabinet) when she proudly handed Zelensky the EU application it reminded me so much of Merkel when she signaled support to the Georgian president he could joint NATO one day and how actually Merkel still kept digging in her heels ten years later. You just have to wonder. It made me really feel like they were using, what could be meaningless promises that sound big just to buy time.
posted by pairofshades at 11:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 11:18 AM on April 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
⚡️ Ukraine has filled in the questionnaire to receive EU candidate status, according to Ihor Zhovkva, a deputy chief of staff for President Volodymyr Zelenskyposted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:34 AM on April 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
Now the European Union is expected to decide on giving candidate status to Ukraine.
I mean it’s just, talk is cheap, they can even give them candidate status. And there will probably be a lot of standing applause and lots of inspiring speeches…. But you are talking about very serious European bureaucrats. Turkey has been a candidate since 2004. And the European Parliament has no power apart from voting on having opinions.
posted by pairofshades at 11:44 AM on April 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by pairofshades at 11:44 AM on April 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
Your Childhood Pet Rock: You're not wrong but I think there's a big gulf between pledges and action. A lot of the moves that Germany says they're going to make are going to require a lot of consistent political and economic effort and there are a lot of well connected people in the party structure who will be putting all of their efforts against the de-Russification of Germany energy.
I agree with pretty much all of this, with the exception that the serious opposition within Germany to a complete disentanglement from Russian carbon fuels comes from the bureaucracy. My read is that Finance Minister Lindner, who’s not of Scholz’ Social Democratic Party but from the business-focused right-wing party Free Democratic Party, is serious when he says that if he followed his heart “there would be an immediate embargo on everything”.
The problem is that the very risk-averse ministry of finance (and the wider financial bureaucracy) is telling Lindner and the rest of the political and business establishment that there is no way to stop buying Russian fossil fuels, and the Free Democrats, along with factions within the Greens and the Social Democrats, are disposed to believing them.
If it was only people in Scholz’ party, I think he would probably push things further, because he has control of enough levers of party discipline that he could sideline the SDP factions fairly easily. And the Greens and the FDP would probably go along with that. But all that, plus the ministry of finance, which would probably be publicly backed by the German Federal Bank and tacitly or not so tacitly supported by the courts, is a serious obstacle.
I say this not to defend Scholz. I think that if he stood up and said: “We’ll divest from Russian gas and oil, whatever it takes”, he’d probably win the argument. But he got to where he is by being careful and calculating, so that’s who he’ll continue to be.
posted by Kattullus at 11:54 AM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
I agree with pretty much all of this, with the exception that the serious opposition within Germany to a complete disentanglement from Russian carbon fuels comes from the bureaucracy. My read is that Finance Minister Lindner, who’s not of Scholz’ Social Democratic Party but from the business-focused right-wing party Free Democratic Party, is serious when he says that if he followed his heart “there would be an immediate embargo on everything”.
The problem is that the very risk-averse ministry of finance (and the wider financial bureaucracy) is telling Lindner and the rest of the political and business establishment that there is no way to stop buying Russian fossil fuels, and the Free Democrats, along with factions within the Greens and the Social Democrats, are disposed to believing them.
If it was only people in Scholz’ party, I think he would probably push things further, because he has control of enough levers of party discipline that he could sideline the SDP factions fairly easily. And the Greens and the FDP would probably go along with that. But all that, plus the ministry of finance, which would probably be publicly backed by the German Federal Bank and tacitly or not so tacitly supported by the courts, is a serious obstacle.
I say this not to defend Scholz. I think that if he stood up and said: “We’ll divest from Russian gas and oil, whatever it takes”, he’d probably win the argument. But he got to where he is by being careful and calculating, so that’s who he’ll continue to be.
posted by Kattullus at 11:54 AM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
A post with images of a thread from a parent of a Crimean sailor from Yalta assigned to the Moskva, regarding the official notification his son is "missing." Direct link to a translation in the comments, 1 and 2.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:18 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:18 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mystery item on the US military aid bulletin:
Mysterious American robotic ships headed to Ukraine [FedScoop, 4/15]
Mysterious American robotic ships headed to Ukraine [FedScoop, 4/15]
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
“It’s an unmanned surface vessel (USV) that can be used for a variety of purposes in coastal defense. I think I’ll just leave it at that,” Kirby told reporters.
He said the systems are coming from Navy stocks.
When pressed for more details, Kirby said: “I’m not gonna promise you a fact sheet [but] I can promise you the damn thing works.”
Kirby was later asked if the systems will be armed.
“They’re designed to help Ukraine with its coastal defense needs. And I think I’m just going to leave it at that. I’m not going to get into the specific capabilities,” he said.
Here's a fairly interesting twitter thread on the debate whether the Moskva had been modernized or not (with the caveat that I don't know this Ryan C from a hole in the ground, but what he says lines up with what I can glean from the Google Translate of his sources). Here's an excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 12:48 PM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
Apparently Soviet ships designed before 1980 did not have a fully centralized fire alarm system. The Project 1164 (Slava) Cruisers, of which Moskva was one, fell into this period; having been designed in the early 1970s.One thing that follows from all this, which he doesn't really go into, is that the Russian navy may have no way to know what exactly happened on the Moskva, because it didn't have sensor systems that could give it enough data.
Amazingly, as late as 2011, the plans for modernization of the Marshal Ustinov (one of three Slavas completed) did not cover installation of a centralized fire alarm system, despite proposals to do so by various technical groups.
The debate over including a central fire alarm system in the Slava modernization lasted until at least late 2013; when ADM Komoyedov said that the lack of a centralized fire detection system significantly affected the survivability of the Slava class.
Eventually, the Krab-M (Краб-М) fire alarm system was chosen, which consists of 30 to 60 sensors spread across the ship, capable of providing temperature, rate of temperature rise, amount of smoke, flame detection, excess pressure and relative humidity information.
The Ustinov was modernized 2012-2016; but it appears that Moskva never quite was fully modernized -- there was discussion in the Navy at the time (2018) over whether the value of modernization was justified for Moskva.
From the information I can uncover, there were plans for a "Three Year" modernization of Moskva at Sevastopol Marine Plant in early 2018 that would have taken place from 2018 to 2021. This was halted due to funding uncertainity and age issues.
posted by Kattullus at 12:48 PM on April 17, 2022 [13 favorites]
While American media is bloodthirsty as ever, European governments need to keep a more balanced act, because, despite everything, they cannot change their geography. While this war will push for innovation in energetic sector, that in the long run will make Europe less dependent from Russia; next winter is next to the corner and Russian gas will be needed again and again.
I'm sorry, but these ideas are straight out of russian state propaganda. Like some shit Solovyev would say before he starts his anger intensification exercises in the greenroom. It's the main idea behind "things will be back to normal in a few months." The population is assuaged that this must be so because Europe just can't continue to deny us our prosperity.
posted by WeekendJen at 1:12 PM on April 17, 2022 [19 favorites]
I'm sorry, but these ideas are straight out of russian state propaganda. Like some shit Solovyev would say before he starts his anger intensification exercises in the greenroom. It's the main idea behind "things will be back to normal in a few months." The population is assuaged that this must be so because Europe just can't continue to deny us our prosperity.
posted by WeekendJen at 1:12 PM on April 17, 2022 [19 favorites]
This is my own personal speculation, and not sourced from anywhere, but the sense I have is that the issue of whether or not western governments elect to pressure Ukraine to accept a face-saving cease-fire or "victory" for Russia, however defined, is going to depend a great deal not just on facts on the ground in Ukraine but also on the western powers' reaction to Russian meddling in their own politics.
That is to say, I think that if western governments were able to write this off as "just" a Ukrainian problem they might be inclined to do so, as much as I believe that they should not. But Putin's regime has been meddling with internal politics in many of the countries that will have to make these decisions, to varying degrees of success and with varying degrees of damage. I just don't know whether that will provide additional political will to isolate and contain the Putin government or not (though again, I believe that it should strengthen motivation to contain the Russian efforts across the whole spectrum.)
That gets really complicated, though. The US is currently very equally divided between a party in power by the thinnest of margins and their opponents who have been the welcoming beneficiaries of Russian interference in domestic politics. In the UK, the party in power has been the recipient of significant Russian financial contributions. In France, the challenger against an unpopular incumbent is clearly Russian compromised. Throughout the NATO and EU blocs these issues are echoed to varying and lesser degrees.
How will it all shake out? I'm damned if I know, but I have the sense that political will in the EU and North America will hinge on a lot more than what is happening in Mariupol.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [19 favorites]
That is to say, I think that if western governments were able to write this off as "just" a Ukrainian problem they might be inclined to do so, as much as I believe that they should not. But Putin's regime has been meddling with internal politics in many of the countries that will have to make these decisions, to varying degrees of success and with varying degrees of damage. I just don't know whether that will provide additional political will to isolate and contain the Putin government or not (though again, I believe that it should strengthen motivation to contain the Russian efforts across the whole spectrum.)
That gets really complicated, though. The US is currently very equally divided between a party in power by the thinnest of margins and their opponents who have been the welcoming beneficiaries of Russian interference in domestic politics. In the UK, the party in power has been the recipient of significant Russian financial contributions. In France, the challenger against an unpopular incumbent is clearly Russian compromised. Throughout the NATO and EU blocs these issues are echoed to varying and lesser degrees.
How will it all shake out? I'm damned if I know, but I have the sense that political will in the EU and North America will hinge on a lot more than what is happening in Mariupol.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [19 favorites]
European governments need to keep a more balanced act, because, despite everything, they cannot change their geography
This is so true.
the serious opposition within Germany to a complete disentanglement from Russian carbon fuels comes from the bureaucracy.
It is the same in Austria. Ministers of state come and go, as governments change and ministers posts are divvied up by the parties. But the "Beamte", the actual desk officers, are historically slow and hesitant to implement change. Sometimes when interacting with one, one feels like the Beamte has been at their desk since Kaiser Franz Josef's rule.
Yesterday, i mentioned that it is not feasable as an individual renter in Vienna to change from gas. I forgot to explain that the only change that would make sense is to Fernwärme (literally distant heating), where the energy is provided by the City of Vienna's garbage burning incinerators. The hardware including pipes etc is completely different. Such a change requires major changes to the building structure.
The cost would require a substantial investment of the building owner. As a renter i never have contact with them, everything is handled by the Hausverwaltung, the building administrators, who are paid to maximise profit for the owner.
What can be done is for the federal government to incentivise such an investment so substantially (by tax cuts and government subsidies) that it is more profitable for owners to switch their buildings from gas. This requires not only political will but also cooperation at a ministerial level across ministries, and, at a level that is specifically Austrian, the level of associations and bodies such as the chamber of commerce, trade unions etc, all of which have professional lobbyists in parliament and government. The sheer volume of red tape governing decisions in Austria, on a federal and also regional level is insane. It is made worse by Parteienproporz (very simply: each political party must have a share of influence).
So Nehammer is simply not able to make a decision at that level for all of Austria without the support on a Bundesländer Level, and, as he wants to remain federal chancellor, he wont rock the boat.
Infuriating, even enraging, and sad, but not solvable on a private level. And yes, i do go and vote, and no i did not vote Nehammer (in fact no one did, he was nominated by the party (ÖVP, conservatives) when Kurz became to much of a liability for said party.
Anyway, this is the Ukraine thread, and i only wanted to explain why for the majority of Austrians (as the majority does Not own their homes but rents) simply switching off the gas will depend in our politicians and even more on the Beamten.
(The Asterix Story "the House that sends you mad" captures it perfectly)
posted by 15L06 at 1:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
This is so true.
the serious opposition within Germany to a complete disentanglement from Russian carbon fuels comes from the bureaucracy.
It is the same in Austria. Ministers of state come and go, as governments change and ministers posts are divvied up by the parties. But the "Beamte", the actual desk officers, are historically slow and hesitant to implement change. Sometimes when interacting with one, one feels like the Beamte has been at their desk since Kaiser Franz Josef's rule.
Yesterday, i mentioned that it is not feasable as an individual renter in Vienna to change from gas. I forgot to explain that the only change that would make sense is to Fernwärme (literally distant heating), where the energy is provided by the City of Vienna's garbage burning incinerators. The hardware including pipes etc is completely different. Such a change requires major changes to the building structure.
The cost would require a substantial investment of the building owner. As a renter i never have contact with them, everything is handled by the Hausverwaltung, the building administrators, who are paid to maximise profit for the owner.
What can be done is for the federal government to incentivise such an investment so substantially (by tax cuts and government subsidies) that it is more profitable for owners to switch their buildings from gas. This requires not only political will but also cooperation at a ministerial level across ministries, and, at a level that is specifically Austrian, the level of associations and bodies such as the chamber of commerce, trade unions etc, all of which have professional lobbyists in parliament and government. The sheer volume of red tape governing decisions in Austria, on a federal and also regional level is insane. It is made worse by Parteienproporz (very simply: each political party must have a share of influence).
So Nehammer is simply not able to make a decision at that level for all of Austria without the support on a Bundesländer Level, and, as he wants to remain federal chancellor, he wont rock the boat.
Infuriating, even enraging, and sad, but not solvable on a private level. And yes, i do go and vote, and no i did not vote Nehammer (in fact no one did, he was nominated by the party (ÖVP, conservatives) when Kurz became to much of a liability for said party.
Anyway, this is the Ukraine thread, and i only wanted to explain why for the majority of Austrians (as the majority does Not own their homes but rents) simply switching off the gas will depend in our politicians and even more on the Beamten.
(The Asterix Story "the House that sends you mad" captures it perfectly)
posted by 15L06 at 1:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
Yesterday, i mentioned that it is not feasable as an individual renter in Vienna to change from gas. I forgot to explain that the only change that would make sense is to Fernwärme (literally distant heating), where the energy is provided by the City of Vienna's garbage burning incinerators. The hardware including pipes etc is completely different. Such a change requires major changes to the building structure.
Just a note: it seems that here in Denmark, the change to fjernvarme (the same as Fernwärme) can be achieved in a few months, and it is happeningen ASAP right now. The hardware is not as complicated as some want it to seem. Maybe contact your local politicians.
posted by mumimor at 1:54 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just a note: it seems that here in Denmark, the change to fjernvarme (the same as Fernwärme) can be achieved in a few months, and it is happeningen ASAP right now. The hardware is not as complicated as some want it to seem. Maybe contact your local politicians.
posted by mumimor at 1:54 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia isn’t the sole supplier of gas and a lot of the gas Europe consumes is domestically produced. It is possible to increase European supplies; especially given recent moves in Romania to develop some substantial deposits on the Black Sea. The goal of Europe will be to diversify its supply of gas while reducing its use. This can be accomplished by building and expanding LNG port terminals to get gas from North America and the Middle East. They can also do pipelines to get gas from North Africa and Centeal Asia (via Turkey).
Iran is in an interesting position right now because a nuclear deal will let them into this rush to replace Russia as a gas supplier.
posted by interogative mood at 2:06 PM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
Iran is in an interesting position right now because a nuclear deal will let them into this rush to replace Russia as a gas supplier.
posted by interogative mood at 2:06 PM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
I am just an ignorant American, but it still seems to me that a society which felt like it couldn't quit Russian gas outright, but wanted to minimize Russian revenues and it's own dependence on Russian gas would implement tariffs on Russian gas. I find it perplexing that tariffs aren't being offered up as an alternative to ouright embargoes.
posted by Reverend John at 2:07 PM on April 17, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 2:07 PM on April 17, 2022
i'm seriously wondering why people assume the russians wouldn't turn off the gas first - it's one way to escalate this conflict without involving a dangerous military move - and probably a lot more effective one
yes, i know they would go broke - but so would a lot of others and they'd be cold, too
posted by pyramid termite at 2:17 PM on April 17, 2022
yes, i know they would go broke - but so would a lot of others and they'd be cold, too
posted by pyramid termite at 2:17 PM on April 17, 2022
I narrowly escaped death in dungeons of the "Luhansk People's Republic". From December 2020 and quite graphic.
posted by Slothrup at 2:22 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Slothrup at 2:22 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
I find it perplexing that tariffs aren't being offered up as an alternative to ouright embargoes.
Tariffs only work if you're trying to discourage a foreign market in favor of a domestic one that is languishing, or if you have a ready supply that can be chosen as an alternative to the one you want to make less appealing. These are not choices available in this case.
posted by hippybear at 2:24 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tariffs only work if you're trying to discourage a foreign market in favor of a domestic one that is languishing, or if you have a ready supply that can be chosen as an alternative to the one you want to make less appealing. These are not choices available in this case.
posted by hippybear at 2:24 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tariffs can also work if you want to diversify your suppliers. You don’t have to tariff all gas, just the stuff coming from Russia.
posted by interogative mood at 2:33 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:33 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
New 'feelings' MeTa if you need it. (Old one closed.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:34 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:34 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tariffs would also encourage the market to conserve where feasible, e.g. lowering thermostat settings, compensating with electric space heaters where necessary, improving insulation, etc. The revenues from tariffs could also be used to help the poor pay for these measures.
These are choices that are available and would be encouraged by a tariff on Russian gas.
An analysis of the economic effects of a European tariff on Russian gas.
posted by Reverend John at 2:57 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
These are choices that are available and would be encouraged by a tariff on Russian gas.
An analysis of the economic effects of a European tariff on Russian gas.
posted by Reverend John at 2:57 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
You don’t have to tariff all gas, just the stuff coming from Russia.
The problem is, gas is not separable for the consumers of it. Gas suppliers need to put x amount of gas in the pipes, regardless of whether it's Russian gas or from some other source; gas isn't separated by source, it all goes into the same distribution system, and that Russian gas is simply not replacable by other sources in the short term - the infrastructure for additional LNG etc just isn't there, and that takes time to build (nor is there a large global supply of 'spare' LNG). So the unit cost of *all* gas would rise because of the tariff on part of the supply. The assumption is that gazprom would have to pay some or all of that cost; I fail to see why they would do so, when they already have contracts, and have no incentive to just offer to lower their price to help out EU-based purchasers. Those contracts are also why the EU countries have been able to largely ignore Russia's demand that they pay in rubles. So in effect, it just becomes a gas tax that consumers would pay, when prices are already rising hard. It would have a similar effect as just reducing gas supplies from Russia - a further spike in gas price, which will fall hardest on the poor and vulnerable, as well as hitting hard the large consumers of gas i.e. industrial processes, with the knock-on economic impact of that, and their unpopularity.
Energy taxes in general are pretty regressive. Now, we can argue whether such taxes should be used over the longer term to discourage fossil fuel use, encourage switching to district heating or air-source heat pumps, price in externalities like climate change etc etc - but that's a different argument than trying to penalise Russian gas suppliers specifically.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:20 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
The problem is, gas is not separable for the consumers of it. Gas suppliers need to put x amount of gas in the pipes, regardless of whether it's Russian gas or from some other source; gas isn't separated by source, it all goes into the same distribution system, and that Russian gas is simply not replacable by other sources in the short term - the infrastructure for additional LNG etc just isn't there, and that takes time to build (nor is there a large global supply of 'spare' LNG). So the unit cost of *all* gas would rise because of the tariff on part of the supply. The assumption is that gazprom would have to pay some or all of that cost; I fail to see why they would do so, when they already have contracts, and have no incentive to just offer to lower their price to help out EU-based purchasers. Those contracts are also why the EU countries have been able to largely ignore Russia's demand that they pay in rubles. So in effect, it just becomes a gas tax that consumers would pay, when prices are already rising hard. It would have a similar effect as just reducing gas supplies from Russia - a further spike in gas price, which will fall hardest on the poor and vulnerable, as well as hitting hard the large consumers of gas i.e. industrial processes, with the knock-on economic impact of that, and their unpopularity.
Energy taxes in general are pretty regressive. Now, we can argue whether such taxes should be used over the longer term to discourage fossil fuel use, encourage switching to district heating or air-source heat pumps, price in externalities like climate change etc etc - but that's a different argument than trying to penalise Russian gas suppliers specifically.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:20 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
i'm seriously wondering why people assume the russians wouldn't turn off the gas first
Oh man, it's in one of the many videos which I knitted or worked in the background to, so it's either Adam Something or Vox or Caspian Report or Peter Zeihan but since I'm very systems-oriented there was one design explanation that seemed compelling: the russians also cannot afford to shut off the spigot so to speak, because even restarting the flow would take years, and in fact they only recently recovered the USSR-era levels because in the confusion of the 1990s the main European pipeline (?) lost demand and they had to shut down most of it, and they don't have the tech capacity to quickly bring it up to speed in the years since.
posted by cendawanita at 3:22 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Oh man, it's in one of the many videos which I knitted or worked in the background to, so it's either Adam Something or Vox or Caspian Report or Peter Zeihan but since I'm very systems-oriented there was one design explanation that seemed compelling: the russians also cannot afford to shut off the spigot so to speak, because even restarting the flow would take years, and in fact they only recently recovered the USSR-era levels because in the confusion of the 1990s the main European pipeline (?) lost demand and they had to shut down most of it, and they don't have the tech capacity to quickly bring it up to speed in the years since.
posted by cendawanita at 3:22 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
Germany pledges €1 billion for Ukraine as Germans redefine pacifism | DW News
The German government has said it is giving more than 1 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.
The funds are part of an 2 billion increase in defense spending announced on Friday. Over half of that money will go to the European Peace Facility - an organization that purchases weapons for Ukraine. The move follows heavy criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his hesitancy to send heavy weapons.
posted by adept256 at 3:23 PM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
The German government has said it is giving more than 1 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.
The funds are part of an 2 billion increase in defense spending announced on Friday. Over half of that money will go to the European Peace Facility - an organization that purchases weapons for Ukraine. The move follows heavy criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his hesitancy to send heavy weapons.
posted by adept256 at 3:23 PM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
I've tried and failed several times to write an apt intro for this one that doesn't trivialize the horror, but I can't. So I'll just leave the link for anyone who cares to read about more newly-discovered atrocities in Sumy.
Bound, beaten, killed: Ukrainian civilians reveal horrors of Russian torture chamber. (CW: Everything)
posted by jammer at 3:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Bound, beaten, killed: Ukrainian civilians reveal horrors of Russian torture chamber. (CW: Everything)
posted by jammer at 3:26 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mirror [CW] for the Sumy article. There are no adequate words.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:07 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:07 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Regarding the Russian torture methods mentioned, this article discusses their use in 1999:
Police in Russia 'torture half of all suspects' [CW]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:13 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Police in Russia 'torture half of all suspects' [CW]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:13 PM on April 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
First pictures of the crippled cruiser Moskva are emerging, apparently from the day after the strike. Not conclusive as to the events though it appears there is a large black hole in the superstructure below the bridge from which copious smoke is belching, and it appears smoke has issued from almost every port along the length of the vessel, suggesting uncontained internal fires.
posted by Rumple at 4:47 PM on April 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Rumple at 4:47 PM on April 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
but wanted to minimize Russian revenues and it's own dependence on Russian gas would implement tariffs on Russian gas.
This is covered in the economic topic "incidence of taxation" (wiki link) which basically says that if you tax a transaction between two parties (buyer and seller) it doesn't matter whether which end of the transaction you impose the tax, the person who pays the tax is the one with lower elasticity of demand or supply - because, that person who has no choice.
Eg, if you want discourage rich people from buying investment properties just to rent them out to people who can't afford their own home, if you put a tax on rental revenue to be paid by the landlord, they're quite likely able to just pass that cost onto the renters, so what you've done is actually tax the renters while not affecting landlord income at all.
In this case, Europe needs heat now or people suffer from hypothermia, while if Russia doesn't sell their gas, eh, they just lose some revenues, the impact is more diffuse and over a much longer period. If you impose a tariff on the transaction, you're basically taxing Europeans, not the Russians.
This would work, as other posters have pointed out, if there was a ready pipeline of gas from another source that you can just turn on. But in that case you wouldn't bother with tariffs, you'd just stop buying Russian gas...
posted by xdvesper at 7:01 PM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
This is covered in the economic topic "incidence of taxation" (wiki link) which basically says that if you tax a transaction between two parties (buyer and seller) it doesn't matter whether which end of the transaction you impose the tax, the person who pays the tax is the one with lower elasticity of demand or supply - because, that person who has no choice.
Eg, if you want discourage rich people from buying investment properties just to rent them out to people who can't afford their own home, if you put a tax on rental revenue to be paid by the landlord, they're quite likely able to just pass that cost onto the renters, so what you've done is actually tax the renters while not affecting landlord income at all.
In this case, Europe needs heat now or people suffer from hypothermia, while if Russia doesn't sell their gas, eh, they just lose some revenues, the impact is more diffuse and over a much longer period. If you impose a tariff on the transaction, you're basically taxing Europeans, not the Russians.
This would work, as other posters have pointed out, if there was a ready pipeline of gas from another source that you can just turn on. But in that case you wouldn't bother with tariffs, you'd just stop buying Russian gas...
posted by xdvesper at 7:01 PM on April 17, 2022 [10 favorites]
Rossiya-24 seems to have been knocked off the air again. Hack the planet.
(Or if you're more optimistic, Swan Lake gifs abound)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:24 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
(Or if you're more optimistic, Swan Lake gifs abound)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:24 PM on April 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Obviously the effects of a tariff on Russian gas are complex, and there would be pain in some areas. However, pointing out the possibility of pain in terms like "Europe needs heat now or people suffer from hypothermia" is disingenuous.
The point of a tariff versus an outright embargo is to maintain the availability of Russian gas for critical uses for which it can't be replaced, while decreasing its use where possible through conservation or replacement with other energy sources which might not be economical with lower gas prices. Similarly, while the argument that tariffs might be regressive is a good reason to be careful with how they are implemented, making sure to use the revenues to provide assistance to those who are least able to afford the increased gas prices, it is not a reason to continue using Russian gas at current prices for all consumers of gas.
Additionally, while the question of the elasticity of supply and demand may mean that the Russians don't lose out on their profits per unit of gas, by reducing the amount of gas sold it still eats into their revenues.
Continuing to use Russian gas without tariffs to signal the markets to avoid it when possible is simply turning a blind eye to funding the Russian war machine. While consumers might not be able to selectively avoid Russian gas if they're using gas at all, they can take measures to decrease their gas use in response to the price signal a tariff would create. A tariff avoids the problems of an embargo while still decreasing Russian profits.
posted by Reverend John at 7:29 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
The point of a tariff versus an outright embargo is to maintain the availability of Russian gas for critical uses for which it can't be replaced, while decreasing its use where possible through conservation or replacement with other energy sources which might not be economical with lower gas prices. Similarly, while the argument that tariffs might be regressive is a good reason to be careful with how they are implemented, making sure to use the revenues to provide assistance to those who are least able to afford the increased gas prices, it is not a reason to continue using Russian gas at current prices for all consumers of gas.
Additionally, while the question of the elasticity of supply and demand may mean that the Russians don't lose out on their profits per unit of gas, by reducing the amount of gas sold it still eats into their revenues.
Continuing to use Russian gas without tariffs to signal the markets to avoid it when possible is simply turning a blind eye to funding the Russian war machine. While consumers might not be able to selectively avoid Russian gas if they're using gas at all, they can take measures to decrease their gas use in response to the price signal a tariff would create. A tariff avoids the problems of an embargo while still decreasing Russian profits.
posted by Reverend John at 7:29 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
As much as people make fun of how improbable it is that the Russians claim the Moskva just spontaneously sank, it's also quite surprising that Ukraine managed to sink it with two Neptune missiles.
So many things had to go right for that to happen.
These sea skimmer missiles are a well known design - they skim 5m to 20m over the surface of the water, their sensors automatically calibrating their height based on the waves. They rely on the curvature of the earth to hide themselves from the target they are hunting - a ship's radar dome 20m over the surface of the sea can only spot a sea skimmer as it "comes over the horizon" some 15 miles away - with barely a minute or two until impact.
But this also means the missile is flying blind until that point as well.
What happens is the crew has to pre-program the missile to fly to a specific point, at which point it turns on its radar, then it homes into the biggest radar signature in front of it. For that to happen:
1. The Ukrainians would have had to predict where the Moskva would be 30 minutes into the future - it takes about that long to travel 300km. Those ships travel fast - 60kmph - so the ship could be anywhere in a 30km radius. In wartime, warships will deliberately make direction changes to avoid straight line intercepts like this. It's more likely than not that the missile reaches its destination 30 minutes later, turns on its radar, and finds nothing.
2. The Moskva would have had to be without its escorts. Flagships should be screened by defensive escorts, which would be the first targets locked on by the missiles - which don't really have a way of discriminating one ship from another. For example, a US Carrier Group would typically have the carrier at the center, surrounded by 8 destroyers and 4 cruisers in rings 10 miles and 25 miles out. Any incoming missiles would have to pass through the outer ring before it even crested the horizon in relation to the main target.
So the Moskva would have been traveling in a very predictable pattern, and been operating without its escorts.
Lastly, we also have the ships defensive capabilities. The USS Mason allegedly survived 9 sea skimmer missiles of Chinese manufacture, using a three layered defense - ESSM/SM-2 missiles at 10 miles out, then CWS at 3 miles out, and Nulka decoys. The Nulka decoys were particularly interesting, as they are of Australian design and manufacture, and use a similar "hovering missile" design as the Space-X rockets - they hover in position and deploy material which mimics the radar signature of the ship, and are able to attract and lure in multiple threats, they can even be repositioned to continue covering the ship as it takes evasive maneuvers.
As for ships spontaneously sinking, even the USS Connecticut sustained severe damage by running aground in the South China Sea, it had to limp home and there was speculation it might have to be scrapped entirely. Heck, even Russia's only aircraft carrier sustained damage when the dry-dock it was in sank randomly, putting it out of commission for potentially years.
posted by xdvesper at 7:40 PM on April 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
So many things had to go right for that to happen.
These sea skimmer missiles are a well known design - they skim 5m to 20m over the surface of the water, their sensors automatically calibrating their height based on the waves. They rely on the curvature of the earth to hide themselves from the target they are hunting - a ship's radar dome 20m over the surface of the sea can only spot a sea skimmer as it "comes over the horizon" some 15 miles away - with barely a minute or two until impact.
But this also means the missile is flying blind until that point as well.
What happens is the crew has to pre-program the missile to fly to a specific point, at which point it turns on its radar, then it homes into the biggest radar signature in front of it. For that to happen:
1. The Ukrainians would have had to predict where the Moskva would be 30 minutes into the future - it takes about that long to travel 300km. Those ships travel fast - 60kmph - so the ship could be anywhere in a 30km radius. In wartime, warships will deliberately make direction changes to avoid straight line intercepts like this. It's more likely than not that the missile reaches its destination 30 minutes later, turns on its radar, and finds nothing.
2. The Moskva would have had to be without its escorts. Flagships should be screened by defensive escorts, which would be the first targets locked on by the missiles - which don't really have a way of discriminating one ship from another. For example, a US Carrier Group would typically have the carrier at the center, surrounded by 8 destroyers and 4 cruisers in rings 10 miles and 25 miles out. Any incoming missiles would have to pass through the outer ring before it even crested the horizon in relation to the main target.
So the Moskva would have been traveling in a very predictable pattern, and been operating without its escorts.
Lastly, we also have the ships defensive capabilities. The USS Mason allegedly survived 9 sea skimmer missiles of Chinese manufacture, using a three layered defense - ESSM/SM-2 missiles at 10 miles out, then CWS at 3 miles out, and Nulka decoys. The Nulka decoys were particularly interesting, as they are of Australian design and manufacture, and use a similar "hovering missile" design as the Space-X rockets - they hover in position and deploy material which mimics the radar signature of the ship, and are able to attract and lure in multiple threats, they can even be repositioned to continue covering the ship as it takes evasive maneuvers.
As for ships spontaneously sinking, even the USS Connecticut sustained severe damage by running aground in the South China Sea, it had to limp home and there was speculation it might have to be scrapped entirely. Heck, even Russia's only aircraft carrier sustained damage when the dry-dock it was in sank randomly, putting it out of commission for potentially years.
posted by xdvesper at 7:40 PM on April 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
The story I saw which is plausible (but it's wise to withhold judgment for now in case of noise/misunderstandings/misinfo) is that a Bayraktar drone was used by the Ukrainians either to harass/distract the Moskva (drawing the attention of the ship's radar, specifically), or provide its current heading, speed, and location, or both. With an asset in the air near the ship giving you basically real time location and video, your chances go way, way up.
posted by tclark at 7:48 PM on April 17, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by tclark at 7:48 PM on April 17, 2022 [16 favorites]
I'm also not sure the choices are (a) no escort or (b) escort operating with the competence and size of a USN carrier battle group. It could just be a disorganized and undersized escort that hasn't had enough training for all the ships to be using their systems up to their theoretical capabilities or coordinate with each other in the thick of things. The Russian Navy's reputation isn't as good as the Army's, and.....
What is likely is that whatever escort ships were with it probably had newer radars and air defense systems; articles from the last few years suggest Moskva was still waiting for modernization and upgrades that were put off.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:57 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
What is likely is that whatever escort ships were with it probably had newer radars and air defense systems; articles from the last few years suggest Moskva was still waiting for modernization and upgrades that were put off.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:57 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
in addition to the drone, the challenge of sinking the moskva changes a bit if you take into account the assistance of us satellite intelligence which could give the ukrainians exact information about the ships speed position and heading etc. one of the greatest weapons the west is providing to ukraine is access to an intelligence infrastructure that they could never muster on their own and that is even more developed than the russian equivalent
posted by dis_integration at 8:12 PM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 8:12 PM on April 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
I think I'd read a report that the Moskva was driving in a predictable pattern, too? I can't find it right now, but there were diagrams on the sea showing 2 or 3 boat paths that were very regular.
posted by hippybear at 8:17 PM on April 17, 2022
posted by hippybear at 8:17 PM on April 17, 2022
It doesn’t appear that the Russians are able to conduct American style naval operations with groups of ships organizing a defensive screen and air cover. This is in keeping with the theme of this conflict. We’ve seen that the Russian military is poorly trained, poorly commanded and poorly equipped.
They appear to have sent this ship out without any kind of air cover and without any escorts.
posted by interogative mood at 9:45 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
They appear to have sent this ship out without any kind of air cover and without any escorts.
posted by interogative mood at 9:45 PM on April 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
We’ve seen that the Russian military is poorly trained, poorly commanded and poorly equipped.
And the ships themselves. Damage control requires training, but also good material condition of the ship. Valves, hatches, closures, firefighting gear, all that has to work, and to work reliably they need constant maintenance. If their navy is anything like their army vehicle fleet, a trash can fire might sink one of their ships.
posted by ctmf at 10:58 PM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
And the ships themselves. Damage control requires training, but also good material condition of the ship. Valves, hatches, closures, firefighting gear, all that has to work, and to work reliably they need constant maintenance. If their navy is anything like their army vehicle fleet, a trash can fire might sink one of their ships.
posted by ctmf at 10:58 PM on April 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
It's worth noting that storing 16 anti-ship missiles on the deck may be a contributing design flaw.
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
posted by adept256 at 11:34 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
posted by adept256 at 11:34 PM on April 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
And for what it's worth, my apartment complex overhauled our fire alarm system to meet new regulations this year. The new system is RF networked with battery powered temperature and smoke detectors, two each for twenty apartments with a panel in the courtyard and several sirens. This took one day with stuff you can get at the hardware store.
Sure, you can argue retrofitting a missile cruiser is a whole different matter, but is it really? Or is it that they DNGAF.
posted by adept256 at 11:46 PM on April 17, 2022
Sure, you can argue retrofitting a missile cruiser is a whole different matter, but is it really? Or is it that they DNGAF.
posted by adept256 at 11:46 PM on April 17, 2022
The Ukrainian General Staff is expecting heavy assaults to start today on the Donbas front, as well as in Mariupol. They put out an operational update in English today:
posted by Kattullus at 11:58 PM on April 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
The fifty-fourth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.Also, there were five missile strikes on Lviv this morning. After a few days of relative calm, it looks like fighting will ratchet up considerably today.
The Armed Forces of the russian federation are completing the creation of an offensive group in the Eastern Operational Zone. The russian enemy also continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on critical infrastructure of Ukraine.
In the Volyn and Polissya areas, the russian enemy did not take active action, no signs of the formation of offensive groups were found. Certain units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to carry out tasks to cover the Ukrainian-belarusian border in Brest and Gomel regions. In these areas, the enemy conducts electronic warfare reconnaissance. The export of damaged armoured vehicles of the Armed Forces of the russian federation is recorded by rail from the territory of the republic of Belarus.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy exercises increased control over border areas. Engineering equipment of positions in the areas of checkpoints and in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the russian federation continues. The involvement of sabotage and reconnaissance groups and missile strikes from the territory of the russian federation is not ruled out.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the russian occupiers continue to partially blockade Kharkiv and try to carry out fire damage to units of our troops.
In order to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Siversky Donets River and create conditions for the rapid deployment of troops, the russian enemy conducted reconnaissance by fighting in the settlements of Zavody, Dmytrivka and Dibrovne. He was unsuccessful, lost and left.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the russian enemy regains combat capability and replenishes its reserves. It is trying to improve the tactical position of his units and intensify hostilities. The russian occupiers continue shelling the settlements of Siversk and Pokrovske.
The russian enemy concentrated its main efforts in the areas of the settlements of Lyman, Kreminna, Popasna and Rubizhne, trying to establish full control over the city of Mariupol. It carried out offensive operations in the Siverodonetsk, Popasna and Zaporizhia directions.
The russian enemy tried unsuccessfully to gain a foothold in the areas of Kreminna and Rubizhne. It carried out assault operations in the areas of Novotoshkivske, Popasna, Avdiivka and Marinka. It was also unsuccessful.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy focuses its main efforts on maintaining its positions, and continues to exert fire on the positions of our troops in the directions of Mykolayiv and Oleksandrivka.
It is expected that the russian enemy will continue to fight to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region.
In total, 87 battalion tactical groups of the russian enemy were involved in the implementation of combat missions on the territory of Ukraine.
In the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, defenders of Ukraine repulsed twelve enemy attacks, destroyed ten tanks, fifteen armoured units and five vehicles, as well as five enemy artillery systems.
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has hit five air targets the day before: one plane, three helicopters and one UAV.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let's win together! Glory to Ukraine!
posted by Kattullus at 11:58 PM on April 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
The Battle is Donbas seems to have started... But it’s the Ukrainians who have started it. - 🧵 by Mike Martin
Thread about what appears to be two Ukranian attacks on the Russian supply lines with what looks like an attempt to isolate those in Izyum. Some speculation that the Russian's apparent attempt to set May 9th as the date for their victory parade - may be creating some pressures on them to over-extend their supply lines again, as they did in Kiev.
posted by rongorongo at 12:48 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Thread about what appears to be two Ukranian attacks on the Russian supply lines with what looks like an attempt to isolate those in Izyum. Some speculation that the Russian's apparent attempt to set May 9th as the date for their victory parade - may be creating some pressures on them to over-extend their supply lines again, as they did in Kiev.
posted by rongorongo at 12:48 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Russian Navy's reputation isn't as good as the Army's, and.....
And they likely operated under the assumption that Ukraine would not have surface ships out while if they did the systems on board the Moskva and support vessels would detect them in time, so that any danger would be from drones and ballistic missiles, and maybe fighter jets. "We can deal with those."
Surprise.
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
Russia says it was. Weather reports and photos from the next day show that to be, ah, somewhat exaggerated.
Sure, you can argue retrofitting a missile cruiser is a whole different matter, but is it really? Or is it that they DNGAF.
RF doesn't work shit in a steel vessel with steel bulkheads and steel doors EVERYWHERE. It all needs to be wired, multiple sensors on multiple circuits for every compartment, and with sensors that do a bit more than just the consumer stuff from Home Depot.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:09 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
And they likely operated under the assumption that Ukraine would not have surface ships out while if they did the systems on board the Moskva and support vessels would detect them in time, so that any danger would be from drones and ballistic missiles, and maybe fighter jets. "We can deal with those."
Surprise.
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
Russia says it was. Weather reports and photos from the next day show that to be, ah, somewhat exaggerated.
Sure, you can argue retrofitting a missile cruiser is a whole different matter, but is it really? Or is it that they DNGAF.
RF doesn't work shit in a steel vessel with steel bulkheads and steel doors EVERYWHERE. It all needs to be wired, multiple sensors on multiple circuits for every compartment, and with sensors that do a bit more than just the consumer stuff from Home Depot.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:09 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
Lacrosse or Onyx is a series of terrestrial radar imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the United States National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).posted by mikelieman at 1:24 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also since it was a stormy night, it's doubtful how useful drones and satellites were.
NRO would like to have a word with you about Lacrosse. Only a word, or maybe a sentence if you're lucky. They are a three letter agency, after all
posted by wierdo at 1:25 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
NRO would like to have a word with you about Lacrosse. Only a word, or maybe a sentence if you're lucky. They are a three letter agency, after all
posted by wierdo at 1:25 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
the Russian's apparent attempt to set May 9th as the date for their victory paradeI've seen this put out there by several people as a somewhat plausible guess for what they were hoping to do, but I haven't seen anything going so far as to say that they were/are apparently attempting to do it. Is there anything indicating that?
(not arguing; asking)
posted by Flunkie at 1:47 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
May 9 is way more than the Russian July 4 - it's The day symbolising the cult of the army. Not having the parade because they're busy having their asses kicked in Ukraine would be unthinkable. Of course if they're not done, they're not going to stop then, but it matmy well be back to the frantic flailing of the attempted three-day war back in February.
As evidenced by the last 24 hours - over 300 bombings all over Ukraine (seems to be mostly military targets) and taking over Kreminna, a small city in the Lukhansk oblast. We'll see how long the forward push lasts this time, and here's to the Russians being too busy for too many war crimes...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:57 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
As evidenced by the last 24 hours - over 300 bombings all over Ukraine (seems to be mostly military targets) and taking over Kreminna, a small city in the Lukhansk oblast. We'll see how long the forward push lasts this time, and here's to the Russians being too busy for too many war crimes...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:57 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
A short, two second video, of what appears to be the Moskva, on fire before sinking.
posted by Kattullus at 2:08 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:08 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
May 9 is way more than the Russian July 4 - it's The day symbolising the cult of the army. Not having the parade because they're busy having their asses kicked in Ukraine would be unthinkable.But I don't mean "Are they going to have a parade on that day" - I mean is there anything beyond some seemingly plausible guessing to indicate that they are "apparent(ly) attempting to set May 9th as the date for their victory parade".
The context being that a lot of people have seemingly been guessing Putin is pushing for something to be done by that date that he can use as a "Mission Accomplished!" excuse to try to get out of the war. I'm asking if there's any evidence for this beyond just people guessing.
posted by Flunkie at 2:13 AM on April 18, 2022
But I don't mean "Are they going to have a parade on that day" - I mean is there anything beyond some seemingly plausible guessing to indicate that they are "apparent(ly) attempting to set May 9th as the date for their victory parade".
From a quick scan - nothing I could see coming directly from Russia. This Times article (archived) mentions the preparation fro the parade and cites Ukrainian miliary sources as part of its assertion that "Russian troups expect to be heading from for the holiday". Whilst they could credibly have asked Russian prisoners about this - I don't believe we have more than that. The Kremlin's expenditure of 100 million roubles on lacing the sky with silver idodide to literally try to prevent rain on their parade last year - does indicate they are quite serious about the right impression being created.
posted by rongorongo at 2:26 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
From a quick scan - nothing I could see coming directly from Russia. This Times article (archived) mentions the preparation fro the parade and cites Ukrainian miliary sources as part of its assertion that "Russian troups expect to be heading from for the holiday". Whilst they could credibly have asked Russian prisoners about this - I don't believe we have more than that. The Kremlin's expenditure of 100 million roubles on lacing the sky with silver idodide to literally try to prevent rain on their parade last year - does indicate they are quite serious about the right impression being created.
posted by rongorongo at 2:26 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Flunkie: But I don't mean "Are they going to have a parade on that day" - I mean is there anything beyond some seemingly plausible guessing to indicate that they are "apparent(ly) attempting to set May 9th as the date for their victory parade".
One doesn't usually publicly announce battle plans, especially for actions further than a few days away, except when part of an ultimatum "Retreat or surrender; you have 48 hours before we flatten you". And the more sane Russian commanders may have looked at the results of the past two months, seeing another reason to keep their mouths shut regarding future successes and their timetable. With the Ukrainians having excellent reasons to, pardon the pun, rain on that parade anyway.
So it will likely stay at the level of "plausible guess" for the next two weeks or so.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:27 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
One doesn't usually publicly announce battle plans, especially for actions further than a few days away, except when part of an ultimatum "Retreat or surrender; you have 48 hours before we flatten you". And the more sane Russian commanders may have looked at the results of the past two months, seeing another reason to keep their mouths shut regarding future successes and their timetable. With the Ukrainians having excellent reasons to, pardon the pun, rain on that parade anyway.
So it will likely stay at the level of "plausible guess" for the next two weeks or so.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:27 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russian Navy Cruiser Moskva Seen Badly Damaged In Unverified Image (Updated) – The image appears to show a badly damaged Russian Navy cruiser Moskva listing and on fire., Tyler Rogoway, The War Zone, Apr 17, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 5:10 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
As the rumor mill continues to spin around the exact events leading up to and following the sinking of Russia's Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva, a new image [two new images] has emerged showing the heavily damaged ship listing heavily to port. While we cannot authenticate the photo fully just yet, it is by far the most convincing piece of photo evidence showing just how bad the cruiser was damaged before it succumbed to the sea….Analysis follows in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 5:10 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
See also: Moskva Sinking: Images Reveal Once Powerful Russian Navy Ship On Fire, Covert Shores, H.I. Sutton, Mon 18 April 2022 [large annotated image].
posted by cenoxo at 6:01 AM on April 18, 2022
posted by cenoxo at 6:01 AM on April 18, 2022
Ted Lieu wants the Pentagon to report whether there are Ukrainian pilots ready to use A-10s, in which case he wants them to go and take them.
After the sheer clusterfuckage of the last 50 days, we might have reason to suspect that the Russian army is not, in fact, able to defend itself from farting Warthogs.
posted by ocschwar at 6:04 AM on April 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
After the sheer clusterfuckage of the last 50 days, we might have reason to suspect that the Russian army is not, in fact, able to defend itself from farting Warthogs.
posted by ocschwar at 6:04 AM on April 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
Google did something interesting today. They un-blurred all Russian military facilities and bases on Google Maps. Previously, they were obfuscated per Russia's request. Here's one representative tweet about it. For those of you who follow a mix of OSINT folks, I'm sure you'll see a flood of found images today.
If they can get more recent pictures we can start tracking down just where all the hostages from Mariupol are being held.
posted by ocschwar at 6:05 AM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Some weeks ago, Maxim Katz, a member of the Russian opposition, took his family to Israel in time for his wife to finish up a pregnancy.
Since then, he's been producing videos on Youtube that are precluding any return to Russia while Putin is in power.
Pretty heavy hitting stuff.
posted by ocschwar at 6:15 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Since then, he's been producing videos on Youtube that are precluding any return to Russia while Putin is in power.
Pretty heavy hitting stuff.
posted by ocschwar at 6:15 AM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russian sub pens in high res. What used to be the highest nation-state level intelligence, in your browser via Twitter. One thing this war has driven home is that the big social media networks and "tech giants" are transnational geopolitical actors (in conflicts, not just commerce).
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:02 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:02 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
It is being reported that bodies of former vice-president of Gazprombank Vladislav Avayev, his wife and daughter was found in his residence in Moscow in suspected murder-suicide.
posted by adamvasco at 7:12 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 7:12 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
In Germany, just in the last month natural gas prices were up 130% for business users. This had, of course, an impact on the cost of electricity as well - since they use gas for electricity generation.
Worth noting that natural gas for electricity generation in Germany last month was 11.5% of the total energy mix (renewables were 43.2%) This month so far, with the wind blowing strong, has gas at 6.3% and renewables at 58.3%. This of course doesn't include gas used directly for industry or heating. But the German electric grid is definitely greening, and fast (renewables were 20% in 2010, a decade later in 2020 they were 50%)
posted by gwint at 7:28 AM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
Worth noting that natural gas for electricity generation in Germany last month was 11.5% of the total energy mix (renewables were 43.2%) This month so far, with the wind blowing strong, has gas at 6.3% and renewables at 58.3%. This of course doesn't include gas used directly for industry or heating. But the German electric grid is definitely greening, and fast (renewables were 20% in 2010, a decade later in 2020 they were 50%)
posted by gwint at 7:28 AM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
re May 9th as the date for their victory parade
Rob Lee:
posted by gwint at 7:32 AM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Rob Lee:
I think people are becoming a little too fixated on May 9 as an end date for this war. If Russia hasn't achieved sufficient goals by then, but Russian officials still think they can achieve more gains on the battlefield, they won't stop just because it is Victory Day.and Michael Kofman responds: "I think if we look at the pace of operations, and the time they’re taking trying to build up & reassemble unit fragments, it casts skepticism on May 9th as a main driver. Either way I don’t think this date is especially deterministic."
Russia won't achieve the maximalist goals it initially sought, so it has to achieve sufficiently important secondary objectives to justify the high casualties the Russian military has suffered. If Russia ends this war without achieving more, Putin's approval rating will plummet.
posted by gwint at 7:32 AM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Independent Russian media have tracked down parents of conscripts serving on the Moskva. The roundup indicates that about 200 are in hospitals, many with severe burns from the fire or missing limbs from the initial explosion. About 100 were upright enough to take part in a ceremony with the navy commander, including the captain (previously rumoured dead), but the roll call part of the ceremony was muted. A survivor reported about 40 dead in the initial explosion, and there's a list of dead that families are access to, but at least two people are MIA with their parents raising a ruckus. Math dictates that 160 may be unaccounted for.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:42 AM on April 18, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:42 AM on April 18, 2022 [11 favorites]
The father of one of the men officially "missing" from the Moskva is not having it. Worth reading in full, but to summarize:
"I, Shkrebets Dmitry Ivanovich, the father of this conscript: Yegor Dmitrievich Shkrebets, I ask everyone who is not afraid and not indifferent, spread this appeal of mine wherever you have the opportunity so that the bastards do not 'hush up' this terrible tragedy.... A man whose son is taken away in such a vile way is not afraid of anything! Thank you for not being indifferent."
posted by jammer at 7:42 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
"I, Shkrebets Dmitry Ivanovich, the father of this conscript: Yegor Dmitrievich Shkrebets, I ask everyone who is not afraid and not indifferent, spread this appeal of mine wherever you have the opportunity so that the bastards do not 'hush up' this terrible tragedy.... A man whose son is taken away in such a vile way is not afraid of anything! Thank you for not being indifferent."
posted by jammer at 7:42 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
Has anyone found any confirmation/substantiation of Mike Martin’s claim of Ukrainian counterattacks that rongorongo linked to?
posted by Quasirandom at 7:43 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Quasirandom at 7:43 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
casting skepticism on May 9th as a main driver. Either way I don’t think this date is especially deterministic
I could more easily imagine heavily restricting parade attendance if it can't be the usual display, doing up a big flashy TV package to conceal it, and blaming it on the threat of sabotage or terrorism (and maybe renewed Covid measures if that turns out to be convenient). Lots of Special Operation Z propaganda interspersed with the broadcast.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:51 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
I could more easily imagine heavily restricting parade attendance if it can't be the usual display, doing up a big flashy TV package to conceal it, and blaming it on the threat of sabotage or terrorism (and maybe renewed Covid measures if that turns out to be convenient). Lots of Special Operation Z propaganda interspersed with the broadcast.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:51 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
In regards to my previous post, reading of comments to the original tweet indicates that the author and his son have previous social media posts allegedly, according to one person, calling for the "extermination of Ukrainians".
There might be mixed feelings regarding sharing his words, but as the poster says in a followup, "Get a lot of hate reactions to the father of the dead conscript. Totally understandable, but remember: the only realistic way to stop this war is through an implosion of the bubble of social support for it, and the more angry parents like this, the sooner the implosion."
Hopefully folks don't mind me sharing it with that context, but I can understand if folks would rather not have those words there at all.
posted by jammer at 7:51 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
There might be mixed feelings regarding sharing his words, but as the poster says in a followup, "Get a lot of hate reactions to the father of the dead conscript. Totally understandable, but remember: the only realistic way to stop this war is through an implosion of the bubble of social support for it, and the more angry parents like this, the sooner the implosion."
Hopefully folks don't mind me sharing it with that context, but I can understand if folks would rather not have those words there at all.
posted by jammer at 7:51 AM on April 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
Update from the inlaws on what the propaganda says about the ship and what they believe:
Everyone got out and is safe.
There are 700 such ships in the ru navy.
The moskva has already been retrieved and is in dock being remodled.
Why is it not being reported that I am the queen of england?
posted by WeekendJen at 7:53 AM on April 18, 2022 [35 favorites]
Everyone got out and is safe.
There are 700 such ships in the ru navy.
The moskva has already been retrieved and is in dock being remodled.
Why is it not being reported that I am the queen of england?
posted by WeekendJen at 7:53 AM on April 18, 2022 [35 favorites]
the more angry parents like this, the sooner the implosion
It seemed especially significant to me that the family is from Yalta (in Crimea).
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:00 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
It seemed especially significant to me that the family is from Yalta (in Crimea).
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:00 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Why is it not being reported that I am the queen of england?
posted by WeekendJen
Well, it's Monday.
posted by Etrigan at 8:07 AM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by WeekendJen
Well, it's Monday.
posted by Etrigan at 8:07 AM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
> Has anyone found any confirmation/substantiation of Mike Martin’s claim of Ukrainian counterattacks that rongorongo linked to?
I've been scanning casually for the same and really haven't found any yet. I don't know the credibility of this "OSINT Aggregator", either. Not saying it's false, but so far all we have is arrows on a map without any sort of supporting evidence.
The latest IOW campaign assessment simply says, in the section on the Karkhiv/Izium offensive, that "Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv city in the past 24 hours, and Ukrainian forces did not conduct any counterattacks." But their Luhansk battle map does indicate "heavy fighting" and claimed Ukrainian gains near Rubizhne, which would be in keeping with a potential effort to encircle Izium. And also, the timestamp of that is 0300 ET yesterday, so things may have changed since.
Dunno. If I find any more concrete info either way I'll share it here.
posted by jammer at 8:08 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I've been scanning casually for the same and really haven't found any yet. I don't know the credibility of this "OSINT Aggregator", either. Not saying it's false, but so far all we have is arrows on a map without any sort of supporting evidence.
The latest IOW campaign assessment simply says, in the section on the Karkhiv/Izium offensive, that "Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv city in the past 24 hours, and Ukrainian forces did not conduct any counterattacks." But their Luhansk battle map does indicate "heavy fighting" and claimed Ukrainian gains near Rubizhne, which would be in keeping with a potential effort to encircle Izium. And also, the timestamp of that is 0300 ET yesterday, so things may have changed since.
Dunno. If I find any more concrete info either way I'll share it here.
posted by jammer at 8:08 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
just as an observation, a lot of my anime fansub torrents now seem to have a huge amount of Russian peers. Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan too. deff seems way more than "normal" times before the invasion. my peer list from one random moment in time from the show Ergo Proxy (2006).
posted by glonous keming at 8:13 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 8:13 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
A short, two second video, of what appears to be the Moskva, on fire before sinking.
According to FT's max seddon on Twitter, the audio in the last seconds of that clip translates to "You fucking idiot! What the fuck are you doing?"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:28 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
According to FT's max seddon on Twitter, the audio in the last seconds of that clip translates to "You fucking idiot! What the fuck are you doing?"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:28 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
"There are 700 such ships in the ru navy."
SEVEN HUNDRED? Do they mean, like, 700 battle cruisers? 700 ships in the Navy? I am struggling to grapple with the magnitude of the disconnect from reality (in either case, really -- the US Navy has a little under 500 ships, and the US Navy is ginormous). I think the Russian Navy is usually said to have around 300 ships?
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:50 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
SEVEN HUNDRED? Do they mean, like, 700 battle cruisers? 700 ships in the Navy? I am struggling to grapple with the magnitude of the disconnect from reality (in either case, really -- the US Navy has a little under 500 ships, and the US Navy is ginormous). I think the Russian Navy is usually said to have around 300 ships?
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:50 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
SEVEN HUNDRED? Do they mean, like, 700 battle cruisers? 700 ships in the Navy? I am struggling to grapple with the magnitude of the disconnect from reality (in either case, really -- the US Navy has a little under 500 ships, and the US Navy is ginormous). I think the Russian Navy is usually said to have around 300 ships?
Probably adding in ships from all other branches like 300 from the Coast Guard.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:56 AM on April 18, 2022
Probably adding in ships from all other branches like 300 from the Coast Guard.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:56 AM on April 18, 2022
They believe it was an ammo explosion / fire. No mention of what caused it or any sense that that is like totally embarrassing. They seemed to believe it was 700 ships of the same calibur, which is as pointed out completely rediculous. I'm not sure if they misheard / interpreted something saying 700 ships flying under the flag of ru (which would count a bunch of other irrelevant ships) or what. As is the idea that such a big ass ship is already in dock and even repairable. The Titanic would be a casino in Monaco if that kind of thing made sense. They called to tell me this. Twice, because the first time i didn't answer.
Switching to the May 9th thing. Samuel Ramani on twitter (@SamRamani2) posted today the idea that May 9th may not be an end date for anything, but a convenient patriotic zombie day to annouce total war mobilization.
posted by WeekendJen at 9:30 AM on April 18, 2022 [14 favorites]
Switching to the May 9th thing. Samuel Ramani on twitter (@SamRamani2) posted today the idea that May 9th may not be an end date for anything, but a convenient patriotic zombie day to annouce total war mobilization.
posted by WeekendJen at 9:30 AM on April 18, 2022 [14 favorites]
Reuters: Russia central bank admits it's struggling to find foreign-currency options as sanctions spur 'structural transformation'
Since Western nations imposed economic sanctions on Russia, it has struggled to find alternatives for its frozen foreign-currency reserves, according to Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullia.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:46 AM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
...
Russian industry will have to find new international partners to adapt to the sanctions, spurring long-term changes in the economy, she said.
"The period when the economy can live on reserves is finite," she said. "And already in the second and third quarter we will enter a period of structural transformation and the search for new business models."
@maxseddon: Putin has given an honorary title to one of the units Ukraine says slaughtered civilians in Bucha. He thanked the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade for their "mass heroism protecting the fatherland, Russia's sovereignty, and its national interests" in Ukraine.
According to the Mayor of Bucha, Anatoly Fedoruk, "one in five of those remaining in the city were killed."
@PhillipsPOBrien (Professor of Strategic Studies, St. Andrews) on a Ukrainian counterattack and how Russia is recapitulating its mistakes in the Kyiv offensive in its current redeployment.
@JackDetsch: U.S. expects to begin training Ukrainian military on American-provided Howitzer artillery systems outside of the country "in the next few days": senior U.S. defense official.
O'Brien also linked to this "interview with Sergei Karaganov" as "a major figure in what passes for foreign policy analysis under Putin." Among other things Karaganov asserts economic sanctions will inevitably cause the Internet to split apart globally, and claims "aggravation of Russophobia in Europe has deep historical roots" comparable to antisemitism and witch-hunts.
Historian Sergey Radcheko summarizes Karaganov thusly: "The West is falling apart. We should cannibalise Ukraine. Nuclear war is definitely a possibility. Europe is doomed. We'll build a new world, together with China and India. We are heterosexuals."
Politico -- Lonely Anatoly: The Russian ambassador is Washington’s least popular man
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:03 AM on April 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
According to the Mayor of Bucha, Anatoly Fedoruk, "one in five of those remaining in the city were killed."
@PhillipsPOBrien (Professor of Strategic Studies, St. Andrews) on a Ukrainian counterattack and how Russia is recapitulating its mistakes in the Kyiv offensive in its current redeployment.
@JackDetsch: U.S. expects to begin training Ukrainian military on American-provided Howitzer artillery systems outside of the country "in the next few days": senior U.S. defense official.
O'Brien also linked to this "interview with Sergei Karaganov" as "a major figure in what passes for foreign policy analysis under Putin." Among other things Karaganov asserts economic sanctions will inevitably cause the Internet to split apart globally, and claims "aggravation of Russophobia in Europe has deep historical roots" comparable to antisemitism and witch-hunts.
Historian Sergey Radcheko summarizes Karaganov thusly: "The West is falling apart. We should cannibalise Ukraine. Nuclear war is definitely a possibility. Europe is doomed. We'll build a new world, together with China and India. We are heterosexuals."
Politico -- Lonely Anatoly: The Russian ambassador is Washington’s least popular man
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:03 AM on April 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
One doesn't usually publicly announce battle plans, especially for actions further than a few days away, except when part of an ultimatum "Retreat or surrender; you have 48 hours before we flatten you". And the more sane Russian commanders may have looked at the results of the past two months, seeing another reason to keep their mouths shut regarding future successes and their timetable.I was more wondering along the lines of perhaps if any intel had been leaked or intercepted.
posted by Flunkie at 10:10 AM on April 18, 2022
(What’s the generally acknowledged size for when a new thread is needed? At 750+ comments, loading is starting to get a bit loggy on mobile.)
posted by Quasirandom at 10:39 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Quasirandom at 10:39 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
There's nothing more unquestionably heterosexual than explicitly interjecting a “no homo” into every statement.
posted by acb at 11:20 AM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by acb at 11:20 AM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
well according to google translate it went more like "nyet sexless anational mankurt."
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:32 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:32 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
@PhillipsPOBrien (Professor of Strategic Studies, St. Andrews) on a Ukrainian counterattack and how Russia is recapitulating its mistakes in the Kyiv offensive in its current redeployment.
They don't even really need to take or hold Kupiansk either to kettle all those BTGs in Izium. If they're within 15km of so they can just shell the living shit out of the P79 road by day and then go hunting for any of the supply column left on the roads at night. Russians would be suicidal to try supply down that road effectively leaving Izium encircled.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:47 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
They don't even really need to take or hold Kupiansk either to kettle all those BTGs in Izium. If they're within 15km of so they can just shell the living shit out of the P79 road by day and then go hunting for any of the supply column left on the roads at night. Russians would be suicidal to try supply down that road effectively leaving Izium encircled.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:47 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I wonder how many of the 76 BTGs are at full strength.
Maybe they've never been at full strength, thanks to corruption.
From Ukrainian Intelligence:
If this unit, so close to Moscow and expected to actually fight, is in such dire straights, how does the rest of the army look?
posted by meowzilla at 12:31 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Maybe they've never been at full strength, thanks to corruption.
From Ukrainian Intelligence:
Ukrainian military intelligence reports discipline of incompetent Russian officers.This isn't a unit based in far-away eastern Russia. The 3rd is based right outside of Ukraine, and would be expected to take place in any Ukraine invasion as well as defending a theoretical NATO invasion.
Russia's 3rd Motorized Rifle Division was 55% staffed. Commanders said full strength.
If this unit, so close to Moscow and expected to actually fight, is in such dire straights, how does the rest of the army look?
posted by meowzilla at 12:31 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Also, some have speculated that some of the Russian tank divisions' poor performance can be explained by them being understaffed, having only two people for a 3-person tank because someone was making up fake personnel and pocketing their salary (which is perfectly safe to do as long as your tanks don't actually go to war).
posted by acb at 12:38 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by acb at 12:38 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Flunkie: I was more wondering along the lines of perhaps if any intel had been leaked or intercepted.
I don't think the parade itself is sufficiently important from a tactical standpoint to warrant publishing what Western intel knows about its planning, but any movement of units relevant to the situation in and around Ukraine would be. And some of that intel may well carry a remark that it appears to be related to the "Victory" parade.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:48 PM on April 18, 2022
I don't think the parade itself is sufficiently important from a tactical standpoint to warrant publishing what Western intel knows about its planning, but any movement of units relevant to the situation in and around Ukraine would be. And some of that intel may well carry a remark that it appears to be related to the "Victory" parade.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:48 PM on April 18, 2022
two people for a 3-person tank
Which implies, since Russian takes use an autoloader, that the tank commander is doubling as the gunner (with the the other person driving), severely reducing awareness, spotting and coordination.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:49 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Which implies, since Russian takes use an autoloader, that the tank commander is doubling as the gunner (with the the other person driving), severely reducing awareness, spotting and coordination.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:49 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Putin has given an honorary title to one of the units Ukraine says slaughtered civilians in Bucha. He thanked the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade for their "mass heroism protecting the fatherland, Russia's sovereignty, and its national interests" in Ukraine.I haven't spent a lot of this war trying to get inside the heads of the Russians, being naturally more concerned for those who are the more immediate victims of this invasion, but somehow I can't escape thinking about this particular item..
I can't even begin to fathom what it would be like to be part of a unit publicly commended for its performance committing atrocities against a civilian population but whether individuals in that unit are ashamed of their actions or proud of them, being singled out and praised for their butchery can only intensify the awfulness of the situation. What a f*cked up thing to do, on top of an already f*cked up situation.
I realize that except for the people directly involved, the tiny event of this citation, even with poisonous spite as its impetus, is barely a puff of wind in the midst of a great storm, but I'm still somehow appalled by Putin's knack for making everything worse.
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:52 PM on April 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
Oleksiy Danilov, Ukranian National Security Secretary (unconfirmed) on Twitter:
This morning, an active phase of the Russian offensive set off almost along the entire front line, the occupiers tried to break through our defenses. Our military is defending, we are not surrendering our territories.
Says further (without any evidence, natch) that the Russian military has been tasked with occupying Donetsk and Luhansk by Easter. (Looks like Orthodox Easter is the 24th this year). That's a new one.
There have been other reports of increased action over the past 24 hours, too. Seems like perhaps the Next Phase has truly begun.
posted by jammer at 12:54 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
This morning, an active phase of the Russian offensive set off almost along the entire front line, the occupiers tried to break through our defenses. Our military is defending, we are not surrendering our territories.
Says further (without any evidence, natch) that the Russian military has been tasked with occupying Donetsk and Luhansk by Easter. (Looks like Orthodox Easter is the 24th this year). That's a new one.
There have been other reports of increased action over the past 24 hours, too. Seems like perhaps the Next Phase has truly begun.
posted by jammer at 12:54 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainian MoD is saying the Russian offensive in the east is underway; according to Detsch, US DoD thinks it may still be preparatory.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:07 PM on April 18, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:07 PM on April 18, 2022
"We are heterosexuals"
Guess even Tchaikovsky isn't Russian anymore.
posted by Reverend John at 1:13 PM on April 18, 2022 [14 favorites]
Guess even Tchaikovsky isn't Russian anymore.
posted by Reverend John at 1:13 PM on April 18, 2022 [14 favorites]
The next 24-48 hours will be probably full of lots of conflicting reports about the state of the situation in the Donbas region of Ukraine. We won’t really know anything for a few days with regard to how well Ukraine’s defenders are fairing. I expect the Russians to make some gains and we’ll see how far they get and at what cost. Hopefully recent US and UK munitions shipments will make a difference.
posted by interogative mood at 1:31 PM on April 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:31 PM on April 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
Google did something interesting today. They un-blurred all Russian military facilities and bases on Google Maps. Previously, they were obfuscated per Russia's request.
Apparently this is not actually true.
posted by confluency at 3:32 PM on April 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
Apparently this is not actually true.
posted by confluency at 3:32 PM on April 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
By now everyone's probably heard one or more renditions of Ой у лузі червона калина (The Red Viburnum in the Meadow), but I discovered this one this afternoon and was truly moved to tears.
Even more so upon reading the description and learning it was organized by a Ukrainian refugee in Vilnius and the folks in it were actually Lithuanians expressing their support for her.
posted by jammer at 4:28 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Even more so upon reading the description and learning it was organized by a Ukrainian refugee in Vilnius and the folks in it were actually Lithuanians expressing their support for her.
posted by jammer at 4:28 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
I am not the right person to make this post, but if we're going to be moving into a new phase of this war, we really do need a new thread to be started, like, very soon.
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Epic thread from Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) on the "meme war," Russian history, identity, and religion, its linguistic nationalisms, literature and poetry, what they mean for the war, unrolled here.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 PM on April 18, 2022 [16 favorites]
War of memes: why Z-war won't end with peace: Some Western analysts unfamiliar with Eastern European cultural context perceive Z-war as an accident. They presume that Russian invasion results from some sort of "misunderstanding" or mistake which can be resolved via negotiations...
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 PM on April 18, 2022 [16 favorites]
I saw that thread that snuffleupagus linked to earlier today, and this part stood out to me:
posted by Flunkie at 5:23 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Consider how Pushkin advertised the benefits of the Russian rule:I spent some time earlier trying to find this elsewhere on the internet, but was unable to. I'm guessing maybe this is Galeev's personal translation of something. Does anyone know where it is from?
"Submit, Cherkes! Both West and East,
May soon share your fate,
When the time comes, you'll say arrogantly:
Yes, I'm a slave but a slave of the Tsar of the World!"
posted by Flunkie at 5:23 PM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Aw jammer, that's lovely! (lyrics at wikipedia)
(I had been wondering about a sinister / sarcastic rewrite of Smuglyanka Moldavanka, built around the 'the same path awaits you, to the forest full of partisans. that brunette you were after, she has joined the squad'. Implying, this version, that looking up at the curly maples is the last thing you'll ever see, [Russian Soldier]).
posted by bartleby at 5:26 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
(I had been wondering about a sinister / sarcastic rewrite of Smuglyanka Moldavanka, built around the 'the same path awaits you, to the forest full of partisans. that brunette you were after, she has joined the squad'. Implying, this version, that looking up at the curly maples is the last thing you'll ever see, [Russian Soldier]).
posted by bartleby at 5:26 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yeah, well from Tim Mak (NPR reporter now in Odesa)
posted by TWinbrook8 at 5:39 PM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
Julia: this is a 90% Russian speaking city, my mother languageTake that, Pushkin.
But I tell you, the first day of the war every single resident of Odesa was speaking Ukrainian. Even the dogs were speaking Ukrainian!
You never used to hear it here. My kids won’t speak Russian. That’s what I know.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 5:39 PM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
I think people are becoming a little too fixated on May 9 as an end date for this war. If Russia hasn't achieved sufficient goals by then, but Russian officials still think they can achieve more gains on the battlefield, they won't stop just because it is Victory Day.
I think that two things can simultaneously be true: that Putin really, really wants a win by May 9 so that he can have soldiers looking confident and powerful and strong for the internal audiences, and also that yes, of course they aren't going to just give up if things aren't going well by May 9.
posted by corb at 5:49 PM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think that two things can simultaneously be true: that Putin really, really wants a win by May 9 so that he can have soldiers looking confident and powerful and strong for the internal audiences, and also that yes, of course they aren't going to just give up if things aren't going well by May 9.
posted by corb at 5:49 PM on April 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Yury VUDKA
"FLOURISHING RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM"
THE UKRAINIAN REVIEW
Vol. XXXIV No. 1 Spring 1981, p. 37
Pushkin? “Suvorov rose from his grave and envisioned the plunder of Warsaw ...”. Lermontov? “Submit, you Chechen! It is likely that the West and the East will soon take everything from you. Years will pass and you yourself will say: I may be a slave, but a slave of the Tsar of all the world! ”
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:52 PM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
"FLOURISHING RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM"
THE UKRAINIAN REVIEW
Vol. XXXIV No. 1 Spring 1981, p. 37
Pushkin? “Suvorov rose from his grave and envisioned the plunder of Warsaw ...”. Lermontov? “Submit, you Chechen! It is likely that the West and the East will soon take everything from you. Years will pass and you yourself will say: I may be a slave, but a slave of the Tsar of all the world! ”
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:52 PM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
"I'm guessing maybe this is Galeev's personal translation of something. Does anyone know where it is from?"
Joseph Brodsky, The Independence of Ukraine. He was expelled from the USSR for anti-Soviet sentiment, but spent his time in the US writing pro-Soviet propaganda. "On the Independence of Ukraine" is the poem Galeev is quoting here. (Brodsky sucks and should try to Pushkin harder.)
Re: May 9, I would expect there would be something massively explodey leading up to May 9 so Russia can show an awesome TV-ready attack for May 9 TV coverage. I have put no credence in the idea that "the war has to be done by May 9," but I do put credence in "there must be something telegenic to show Russia 'winning' the war by May 9." But "telegenic" and "actually strategically useful" are two totally separate things.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:53 PM on April 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
Joseph Brodsky, The Independence of Ukraine. He was expelled from the USSR for anti-Soviet sentiment, but spent his time in the US writing pro-Soviet propaganda. "On the Independence of Ukraine" is the poem Galeev is quoting here. (Brodsky sucks and should try to Pushkin harder.)
Re: May 9, I would expect there would be something massively explodey leading up to May 9 so Russia can show an awesome TV-ready attack for May 9 TV coverage. I have put no credence in the idea that "the war has to be done by May 9," but I do put credence in "there must be something telegenic to show Russia 'winning' the war by May 9." But "telegenic" and "actually strategically useful" are two totally separate things.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:53 PM on April 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
It's Lermontov, the poem "Izmail bey" in Izbranny proizvedeniia d dvukh tomakh (1938). As noted in fn. 19 here. Illustration.
I can't find any accessible text in Russian or in translation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:07 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
I can't find any accessible text in Russian or in translation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:07 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
OK, seems to be here ('collected works in two volumes'), but someone who knows Russian would need to find the poem.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:20 PM on April 18, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:20 PM on April 18, 2022
All that led me to this 2009 article, "What kind of Russia do I love?" by Oxana Pachliowska.
The whole thing is worth reading, but here's the corresponding part (to the poems and to Galeev's thread):
(click to expand)
Yes, I love this kind of irrationally honest Russia. It is close to me with its open European way of thinking, intrepid attitude, bitter irony, reckless intellectuals who keep up their struggle even though doomed...Another poet, namely Mayakovsky,...went on to paint a disgusting portrait of Russia’s greatest lyric poet: “He would instantly change his visage / As he became more of a niggard, /He looked like Death at a wedding party. /They wrote from the village / That his library had died in a fire.” Poor Blok, he had invoked all those barbarians when he wrote: “Yes, we are Scythians, /Yes, we are Asiatic, /With slanted greedy eyes!” He had even prophesized the way these Scythians would act in regard to Europe: “We will step aside and vanish / In the forests and ravines / When faced with tidy Europe, / But then we will return / And show our snarling Asiatic face!”
Mayakovsky’s poem was entitled “Fine”! Too few Russian authors wrote poems and novels entitled “Bad!” Small wonder that Mayakovsky’s message — “Today you have/ To crash the world’s skull /With brass knuckles — ends with a call for killing whole peoples “in toilets.” Dictum fatum.
And so the kind of Russia I love is an alternative to this barbarous destruction of culture. Ukraine would have no problems with this kind of Russia (or if there were problems, they would be kept on a minimum scope). Ukraine would be able to get prepared for European integration unimpeded and Russia would renovate its state after two fiascos in the same century and would become an ally of the Western community of nations in meeting challenges of the modern world. Regrettably, there is no conditional mood in history.
There is another aspect. At times “politically correct” Ukrainian intellectuals say with a sigh of relief that they do not like Russian politics but that they like “Pushkin’s Russia.” Or take the “politically correct” Ukrainian (and not only Ukrainian) historians who tend to say that Stalin was a monster in human form, of course, but that the Russian people must not be blamed for his crimes.
In reality, everything is much more complicated. The drama of relations between Russia and Ukraine (also, Poland, Georgia, the Baltic States, all of Europe) has not started today. Europe was once a ruthless colonialist yet it always had its intellectuals who condemned their governments because of their colonialism. Among them were such giants as Montaigne, Montesquieu, Jane Austen, Yates, and Sartre. In Russia the situation was different. Pushkin was a brilliant poet but this did not prevent him from praising the vicious General Yermolov who killed so many people in the “brotherly” Caucasus. Pushkin wrote in the 19th century: “Resign yourself, the Caucasus, Yermolov’s coming!” Today he would have written, “Resign yourself, the Caucasus, Medvedev’s coming!” In his Prisoner of the Caucasus the poet eulogized a tsarist general who came “like black plague, /Humbling and destroying tribes…” It was nothing to be ashamed of, but a glorious period: “I’ll sing glory to that time /When, sensing bloody battle, /Our double eagle rose /To fight the rebellious Caucasus…” Pushkin was captivated by that general’s valor, so much so he asked for the honor of serving as his secretary. Lermontov, too, knew the Caucasus quite well because he served in the army there. He ruthlessly described the attitude to the Russians in the Chechen villages: “Their mothers’ lullabies / Scare their children with Russian names.” However, the poet thought it normal that “Like a savage beast the victor with his bayonets /Bursts in a peaceful home.” (From his poem Izmail Bey.)
The question is, Who is the victor and who the vanquished? Hundreds of years have passed and the conflict is still there. In contrast, the slave-holding America and colonial Europe have embarked on the great Integration Project, but only because within this civilization there was a different concept, one of respect for other peoples, their cultures, and peaceful coexistence, that kept growing stronger and maturing. They have had to pay a dear price for this evolution and its results have not always been gratifying, yet results they have. May this is the reason behind Russia’s aggressive attitude toward the West, which at time verges on paranoia? Official Moscow is hardly likely to expect NATO to attack Russia; at the same time it cannot help realizing that the Russian version of the integration project has suffered its final fiasco. So perhaps it is time they [in the Kremlin] stopped pretending and set about getting prepared for a “small-scale victorious war” for the benefit of the “population” — people for whom the victory of the Russian army is more important than their children’s future — and who will know for sure that they have no adequate health care, schools, and living standard because of some mythical “traitors” with which this worlds appears to be packed, and not because of inept governance. Somehow [Russia] has few “true friends” left that can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Today’s [Russian army] generals, descendants of characters like Yermolov and Paskevich (who crushed the Warsaw uprising in 1830) apparently haven’t read the Russian literary giant Count Leo Tolstoy. If they read his Hadji Murad they would remember these lines: “The mosque was polluted in the same way, and the Mullah and his assistants were cleaning it out. No one spoke of hatred of the Russians. the feeling experienced by all the Chechens, from the youngest to the oldest, was stronger than hate. It was not hatred, for they did not regard those Russian dogs as human beings, but it was such repulsion, disgust, and perplexity at the senseless cruelty of these creatures, that the desire to exterminate them — like the desire to exterminate rats, poisonous spiders, or wolves — was as natural an instinct as that of self-preservation.” This is horrifying evidence providing by a Russian writer (which, incidentally, did not prevent him from propagating entirely Messianic ideas in regard to Russia): unwillingness to treat other peoples as equals finally made those other people regard the Russians as not fellow humans, but “creatures.”
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:41 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
The whole thing is worth reading, but here's the corresponding part (to the poems and to Galeev's thread):
(click to expand)
These Russians have been abandoned by their Slavic brothers who ran away to Europe en masse and who want rid themselves of any belonging with the “Russian world” as soon as is absolutely possible. Poland is an exception from the rule, as usual, because Poles haven’t forgotten them. We have also abandoned them because we have our problems to cope with. The West has abandoned them because deep inside the West is convinced that Russia is not part of its cultural space. Therefore, it is best to have continuous Russian gas supplies than invest time and money in Russia’s democracy which is supposed to be evolving, albeit with such calamitous failures...
Yes, I love this kind of irrationally honest Russia. It is close to me with its open European way of thinking, intrepid attitude, bitter irony, reckless intellectuals who keep up their struggle even though doomed...Another poet, namely Mayakovsky,...went on to paint a disgusting portrait of Russia’s greatest lyric poet: “He would instantly change his visage / As he became more of a niggard, /He looked like Death at a wedding party. /They wrote from the village / That his library had died in a fire.” Poor Blok, he had invoked all those barbarians when he wrote: “Yes, we are Scythians, /Yes, we are Asiatic, /With slanted greedy eyes!” He had even prophesized the way these Scythians would act in regard to Europe: “We will step aside and vanish / In the forests and ravines / When faced with tidy Europe, / But then we will return / And show our snarling Asiatic face!”
Mayakovsky’s poem was entitled “Fine”! Too few Russian authors wrote poems and novels entitled “Bad!” Small wonder that Mayakovsky’s message — “Today you have/ To crash the world’s skull /With brass knuckles — ends with a call for killing whole peoples “in toilets.” Dictum fatum.
And so the kind of Russia I love is an alternative to this barbarous destruction of culture. Ukraine would have no problems with this kind of Russia (or if there were problems, they would be kept on a minimum scope). Ukraine would be able to get prepared for European integration unimpeded and Russia would renovate its state after two fiascos in the same century and would become an ally of the Western community of nations in meeting challenges of the modern world. Regrettably, there is no conditional mood in history.
There is another aspect. At times “politically correct” Ukrainian intellectuals say with a sigh of relief that they do not like Russian politics but that they like “Pushkin’s Russia.” Or take the “politically correct” Ukrainian (and not only Ukrainian) historians who tend to say that Stalin was a monster in human form, of course, but that the Russian people must not be blamed for his crimes.
In reality, everything is much more complicated. The drama of relations between Russia and Ukraine (also, Poland, Georgia, the Baltic States, all of Europe) has not started today. Europe was once a ruthless colonialist yet it always had its intellectuals who condemned their governments because of their colonialism. Among them were such giants as Montaigne, Montesquieu, Jane Austen, Yates, and Sartre. In Russia the situation was different. Pushkin was a brilliant poet but this did not prevent him from praising the vicious General Yermolov who killed so many people in the “brotherly” Caucasus. Pushkin wrote in the 19th century: “Resign yourself, the Caucasus, Yermolov’s coming!” Today he would have written, “Resign yourself, the Caucasus, Medvedev’s coming!” In his Prisoner of the Caucasus the poet eulogized a tsarist general who came “like black plague, /Humbling and destroying tribes…” It was nothing to be ashamed of, but a glorious period: “I’ll sing glory to that time /When, sensing bloody battle, /Our double eagle rose /To fight the rebellious Caucasus…” Pushkin was captivated by that general’s valor, so much so he asked for the honor of serving as his secretary. Lermontov, too, knew the Caucasus quite well because he served in the army there. He ruthlessly described the attitude to the Russians in the Chechen villages: “Their mothers’ lullabies / Scare their children with Russian names.” However, the poet thought it normal that “Like a savage beast the victor with his bayonets /Bursts in a peaceful home.” (From his poem Izmail Bey.)
The question is, Who is the victor and who the vanquished? Hundreds of years have passed and the conflict is still there. In contrast, the slave-holding America and colonial Europe have embarked on the great Integration Project, but only because within this civilization there was a different concept, one of respect for other peoples, their cultures, and peaceful coexistence, that kept growing stronger and maturing. They have had to pay a dear price for this evolution and its results have not always been gratifying, yet results they have. May this is the reason behind Russia’s aggressive attitude toward the West, which at time verges on paranoia? Official Moscow is hardly likely to expect NATO to attack Russia; at the same time it cannot help realizing that the Russian version of the integration project has suffered its final fiasco. So perhaps it is time they [in the Kremlin] stopped pretending and set about getting prepared for a “small-scale victorious war” for the benefit of the “population” — people for whom the victory of the Russian army is more important than their children’s future — and who will know for sure that they have no adequate health care, schools, and living standard because of some mythical “traitors” with which this worlds appears to be packed, and not because of inept governance. Somehow [Russia] has few “true friends” left that can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Today’s [Russian army] generals, descendants of characters like Yermolov and Paskevich (who crushed the Warsaw uprising in 1830) apparently haven’t read the Russian literary giant Count Leo Tolstoy. If they read his Hadji Murad they would remember these lines: “The mosque was polluted in the same way, and the Mullah and his assistants were cleaning it out. No one spoke of hatred of the Russians. the feeling experienced by all the Chechens, from the youngest to the oldest, was stronger than hate. It was not hatred, for they did not regard those Russian dogs as human beings, but it was such repulsion, disgust, and perplexity at the senseless cruelty of these creatures, that the desire to exterminate them — like the desire to exterminate rats, poisonous spiders, or wolves — was as natural an instinct as that of self-preservation.” This is horrifying evidence providing by a Russian writer (which, incidentally, did not prevent him from propagating entirely Messianic ideas in regard to Russia): unwillingness to treat other peoples as equals finally made those other people regard the Russians as not fellow humans, but “creatures.”
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:41 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
If looking at poetry for the Russian mindset - excerpt from Gogol's Dead Souls 1842
For what Russian does not love to drive fast? Which of us does not at times yearn to give his horses their head, and to let them go, and to cry, “To the devil with the world!”? At such moments a great force seems to uplift one as on wings; and one flies, and everything else flies, but contrariwise—both the verst stones, and traders riding on the shafts of their waggons, and the forest with dark lines of spruce and fir amid which may be heard the axe of the woodcutter and the croaking of the raven. Yes, out of a dim, remote distance the road comes towards one, and while nothing save the sky and the light clouds through which the moon is cleaving her way seem halted, the brief glimpses wherein one can discern nothing clearly have in them a pervading touch of mystery. Ah, troika, troika, swift as a bird, who was it first invented you? Only among a hardy race of folk can you have come to birth—only in a land which, though poor and rough, lies spread over half the world, and spans versts the counting whereof would leave one with aching eyes. Nor are you a modishly-fashioned vehicle of the road—a thing of clamps and iron. Rather, you are a vehicle but shapen and fitted with the axe or chisel of some handy peasant of Yaroslav. Nor are you driven by a coachman clothed in German livery, but by a man bearded and mittened. See him as he mounts, and flourishes his whip, and breaks into a long-drawn song! Away like the wind go the horses, and the wheels, with their spokes, become transparent circles, and the road seems to quiver beneath them, and a pedestrian, with a cry of astonishment, halts to watch the vehicle as it flies, flies, flies on its way until it becomes lost on the ultimate horizon—a speck amid a cloud of dust!posted by adept256 at 6:53 PM on April 18, 2022 [11 favorites]
And you, Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes—only the weird sound of your collar-bells. Rent into a thousand shreds, the air roars past you, for you are overtaking the whole world, and shall one day force all nations, all empires to stand aside, to give you way!
oh, god, it's manifest destiny as a bitchen camaro
i would love to say more, but it's occurred to me that americans aren't exactly much different - perhaps we're learning, some of us - and i do not doubt that some russians have learned too
but not enough to prevent the ongoing horror that is this war
posted by pyramid termite at 7:09 PM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
i would love to say more, but it's occurred to me that americans aren't exactly much different - perhaps we're learning, some of us - and i do not doubt that some russians have learned too
but not enough to prevent the ongoing horror that is this war
posted by pyramid termite at 7:09 PM on April 18, 2022 [20 favorites]
Aljazeera: Hundreds of thousands flee Russia and Putin’s ‘two wars’
Russia has lost an order of magnitude more people to Putin than in the war.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:09 PM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
Grinstein and her family fled Russia fearing the very real possibility of persecution for being, to use Putin’s own words, “scum” and “national traitors” – slurs that have spurred a witch-hunt reminiscent of the Stalin-era purges.
The Grinsteins are now among at least 200,000 Russians who have abandoned their homes and jobs because they are disgusted by the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine and the largely enthusiastic response to the war by their compatriots.
Russia has lost an order of magnitude more people to Putin than in the war.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:09 PM on April 18, 2022 [13 favorites]
>Putin has given an honorary title to one of the units Ukraine says slaughtered civilians in Bucha.
>I can't even begin to fathom what it would be like to be part of a unit publicly commended for its performance committing atrocities
A unit can perform heroically and be commended for it, even though atrocities or errors might also be attributed to them.
Eg the USS Vincennes which shot down a civilian jet (Iran Flight 655) killing all 290 on board - upon completing their tour of duty, all crew received Combat Action Ribbons, the air warfare coordinator received the Navy Commendation Medal and the captain received the Legion of Merit.
In contrast, the captain of the USS Stark some years earlier - which hesitated to fire upon a Falcon-50 civilian jet in the same theatre of operations - found out to his dismay a minute later that the civilian jet had been modified to carry anti-ship missiles, which struck his ship and killed 37 of his crew. He was relieved of duty, recommended for court martial, then opted for an early resignation.
All that matters is: your first responsibility is to protect your crew, and then carry out the mission. Whether or not you killed civilians, that is very very far down the list of concerns...
posted by xdvesper at 7:52 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
>I can't even begin to fathom what it would be like to be part of a unit publicly commended for its performance committing atrocities
A unit can perform heroically and be commended for it, even though atrocities or errors might also be attributed to them.
Eg the USS Vincennes which shot down a civilian jet (Iran Flight 655) killing all 290 on board - upon completing their tour of duty, all crew received Combat Action Ribbons, the air warfare coordinator received the Navy Commendation Medal and the captain received the Legion of Merit.
In contrast, the captain of the USS Stark some years earlier - which hesitated to fire upon a Falcon-50 civilian jet in the same theatre of operations - found out to his dismay a minute later that the civilian jet had been modified to carry anti-ship missiles, which struck his ship and killed 37 of his crew. He was relieved of duty, recommended for court martial, then opted for an early resignation.
All that matters is: your first responsibility is to protect your crew, and then carry out the mission. Whether or not you killed civilians, that is very very far down the list of concerns...
posted by xdvesper at 7:52 PM on April 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Enola Gay's crew was decorated for carrying out the Hiroshima mission. Not to equate the two events, but still. It would have been better to have had the historical and human presence of mind not to hand out medals.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don't really think choosing conservatively protective and "by the book" in a maybe civilian/maybe hostile judgment call is quite the same thing as voluntarily committing gross unnecessary war crimes.
posted by ctmf at 8:01 PM on April 18, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 8:01 PM on April 18, 2022 [24 favorites]
And I think being defensive vs. offensive matters there. But I guess you would have to believe in such a thing as war crimes, vs. "any advantage, no matter how slight, even terrorizing civilians, means fewer friendlies lost in the long run." Which is a thing some people believe. Same theory as "in a street fight, there's no such thing as fighting fair."
I don't necessarily believe that, because, well because gross, but also because there's such a thing as shooting yourself in the foot by turning the whole world against you.
posted by ctmf at 8:06 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don't necessarily believe that, because, well because gross, but also because there's such a thing as shooting yourself in the foot by turning the whole world against you.
posted by ctmf at 8:06 PM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Those guys in Bucha had a drunken party at a sympathizers house. When their company grew tiresome the host stopped pouring the vodka, so they shot him. This guy wasn't simply pro-russia, he was a presidential candidate and Putin sycophant.
This is the kind of behaviour they honour? Their model soldiers are just drunk goons with guns.
posted by adept256 at 8:11 PM on April 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is the kind of behaviour they honour? Their model soldiers are just drunk goons with guns.
posted by adept256 at 8:11 PM on April 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is the kind of behaviour they honour? Their model soldiers are just drunk goons with guns.
Galeev's thread implies that it's old news to everyone in the region, but it was striking to me that the nationally venerated poets cited in those poems (and in the two articles above, from forty and ten-plus years ago) seem to do exactly that.
Small wonder that Mayakovsky’s message — “Today you have/ To crash the world’s skull /With brass knuckles — ends with a call for killing whole peoples “in toilets.” Dictum fatum.
I suppose it may explain, at least in part, how tortures reported conducted by security services in 1999 spring up in conscript units in 2022.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Galeev's thread implies that it's old news to everyone in the region, but it was striking to me that the nationally venerated poets cited in those poems (and in the two articles above, from forty and ten-plus years ago) seem to do exactly that.
Small wonder that Mayakovsky’s message — “Today you have/ To crash the world’s skull /With brass knuckles — ends with a call for killing whole peoples “in toilets.” Dictum fatum.
I suppose it may explain, at least in part, how tortures reported conducted by security services in 1999 spring up in conscript units in 2022.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's a clear threat to the Ukrainian people, via their own armed forces. This is what we value, more please. Hear that, Ukraine? Want to give up yet?
posted by ctmf at 8:24 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 8:24 PM on April 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
“Consider how Pushkin advertised the benefits of the Russian rule”
I’ve stopped reading Galeev. I notice serious factual errors in his Twitter threads, and I don’t know much about Russian history or culture.
posted by Kattullus at 3:58 AM on April 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
I’ve stopped reading Galeev. I notice serious factual errors in his Twitter threads, and I don’t know much about Russian history or culture.
posted by Kattullus at 3:58 AM on April 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Poland ready to take in at least 10,000 injured Ukrainian soldiers reports Reuters:
posted by Kattullus at 4:23 AM on April 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
Poland's health service has capacity to treat at least 10,000 injured Ukrainian soldiers, the Polish prime minister said on Tuesday, as Russia launches a new offensive in eastern Ukraine.This is an example of how border countries can use their resources to aid the Ukrainian military without intervening directly.
Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters during a visit to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv that Poland was already treating "several dozen" soldiers and was prepared to take in more.
"We are ready to take in at least 10,000 (soldiers), if necessary," he said. "We are doing everything to take in and treat all injured soldiers from Ukraine."
posted by Kattullus at 4:23 AM on April 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
Andrei Kurkov (@AKurkov) tweeted at 1:02 PM on Tuesday April 19, 2022:
16 embassies restarted their work in Kyiv. And bookshop "Bukva" chain is reopened. Popular Crimean-Tatar restaurant "Musafir" is full as before the war. Cars are less popular than rented e-bikes and e-scootes. Because e-bikes and e-scooters are not stopped at the checkpoints.
posted by 15L06 at 4:36 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
16 embassies restarted their work in Kyiv. And bookshop "Bukva" chain is reopened. Popular Crimean-Tatar restaurant "Musafir" is full as before the war. Cars are less popular than rented e-bikes and e-scootes. Because e-bikes and e-scooters are not stopped at the checkpoints.
posted by 15L06 at 4:36 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
And here some cat tax from Mr Kurkov. I have deep respect for Mr Kurkov, as i mentioned elsewhere. He is over 60, and well connected internationally, but is choosing to stay. I appreciate also his twitter updates: short, to the point and occasionally ironic.
posted by 15L06 at 4:50 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by 15L06 at 4:50 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
> I’ve stopped reading Galeev. I notice serious factual errors in his Twitter threads, and I don’t know much about Russian history or culture.
Yeah, I didn't want to say anything initially because it didn't seem too relevant to the topic, but in the end I think it is. I was... let's say "unsatisfied"... by the broad linguistic hand-waving in that last thread. Latin wasn't really seen as a popular lingua franca that united people in some form of theological cross-cultural body the way Galeev is talking about. It was largely unaccessible to common people, who only spoke their local vernacular, and if they heard Latin in Church it was just something the officiant said as part of the ritual. If there was any sort of unifying factor in Western Europe at the time it was Christendom itself, and people still found plenty of reasons to kill other Christians. European soil has been bled over by Christian killing Christian since the first day someone said "Jesus".
My knowledge of the history of OCS isn't as deep, but my general understanding is that it served much the same role, although I know it has had more of a lasting effect on the shaping of the Russian vocabulary than Latin has in the West.
At any rate... I've had a feeling in general that Galeev was over-extrapolating from basic historical facts to weave a picture that's initially compelling, but falls apart if you have a solid grounding in one of the areas that are the "yarn" of his weave. This last thread really crystalized that a bit for me.
Why this is all relevant: hearing you have doubts about the Russian side of that argument supports those feelings enough to unsettle me. I'm going to look at his long threads with a bit more skepticism now when it comes to topics I don't have as much personal knowledge about. Folks can take that for what it's worth.
posted by jammer at 5:28 AM on April 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Yeah, I didn't want to say anything initially because it didn't seem too relevant to the topic, but in the end I think it is. I was... let's say "unsatisfied"... by the broad linguistic hand-waving in that last thread. Latin wasn't really seen as a popular lingua franca that united people in some form of theological cross-cultural body the way Galeev is talking about. It was largely unaccessible to common people, who only spoke their local vernacular, and if they heard Latin in Church it was just something the officiant said as part of the ritual. If there was any sort of unifying factor in Western Europe at the time it was Christendom itself, and people still found plenty of reasons to kill other Christians. European soil has been bled over by Christian killing Christian since the first day someone said "Jesus".
My knowledge of the history of OCS isn't as deep, but my general understanding is that it served much the same role, although I know it has had more of a lasting effect on the shaping of the Russian vocabulary than Latin has in the West.
At any rate... I've had a feeling in general that Galeev was over-extrapolating from basic historical facts to weave a picture that's initially compelling, but falls apart if you have a solid grounding in one of the areas that are the "yarn" of his weave. This last thread really crystalized that a bit for me.
Why this is all relevant: hearing you have doubts about the Russian side of that argument supports those feelings enough to unsettle me. I'm going to look at his long threads with a bit more skepticism now when it comes to topics I don't have as much personal knowledge about. Folks can take that for what it's worth.
posted by jammer at 5:28 AM on April 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Oh man, it's in one of the many videos which I knitted or worked in the background to, so it's either Adam Something or Vox or Caspian Report or Peter Zeihan but since I'm very systems-oriented there was one design explanation that seemed compelling: the russians also cannot afford to shut off the spigot so to speak, because even restarting the flow would take years, and in fact they only recently recovered the USSR-era levels because in the confusion of the 1990s the main European pipeline (?) lost demand and they had to shut down most of it, and they don't have the tech capacity to quickly bring it up to speed in the years since.
The Russian gas production on the Yamal peninsula and other Northern areas is completely tied into the European gas network all the way from the producing formations underground, through the completion, the wellhead, the dewatering systems in the field and then through pipelines to Eastern and Central Europe. Those gas wells need to flow in order to stop them freezing in the winter. They have sufficient dewatering and trace heating to operate in those conditions but it is very nontrivial to close them in safely so that they do not freeze and can be restarted.
It is also the case that if you look at a gas pipeline map, you see a thick web of interconnected pipelines from Russia's main gas fields in Western Siberia to European Russia and then into Europe. A few piddling little pipelines run East so it is absolutely not the case that they could "just" sell that gas to China, even at breakneck speed, it would take a few years to build that kind of capacity. It is also the case that China will never tolerate dependence on Russian gas so they will prevent any kind of situation where they need it on a structural basis the way Eastern Europe does. This means incredible capital expenditure to build a pipeline with a price setting offtaker on the other end not interested in long term contracts.
Also, a lot of American and European technology is used in the Russian oil and gas industry. They will struggle to replace all of it on a short timescale.
re: German nuclear, it would really be very challenging even to keep the units scheduled to close open. Nuclear maintenance operates on a multi-year timescale and many items which will reach fatigue limits in the coming years will not have been replaced nor will replacement parts have been ordered, in some cases the limited production lines for doing so are already non-functional or booked out for other work. Life extending core parts of the reactor like the pressure vessel requires a complex campaign of surveying and modelling to assure sufficient remaining fatigue life. Reactors need to be re-fuelled and fuel is custom fabricated for each reactor design, there is probably no remaining Konvoi specification fuel ready or in fabrication anywhere.
I'm not saying it couldn't be done but it is very much non-trivial to do it and would require substantial political will which I don't think is there.
My view (and my career is sort of focused around energy systems modelling in the context of reducing gas use) is that this will happen the way that the EV transition is happening and the way that F Scott Fitzgerald described the process of going broke. "Slowly at first, and then all at once". That's because the underlying consuming processes are capital intensive. In turn that means, that there are a few layers of time derivatives that you can model.
The annual gas use is where you start.
The first time derivative of that, the rate of change of gas use, is mostly due to adapting industrial processes, moving domestic heating away from gas, and improving domestic thermal efficiency.
The second time derivative is the rate at which you can ramp those things up and the third the rate at which you can ramp up the ramping up.
So to take the example of domestic heat pumps:
Gas consumption -> Rate of heat pump installation / production -> rate at which installers are trained / factory capacity expands -> rate which installer training rate / factory expansion can increase.
As a civilisation, we are good at doing things on a vast scale eventually but once you start going a few layers deep you run into constraints. So it is simply not possible to increase something like heat pump installs by more than a certain factor in one year or two years of three... but on the other hand there is not really a ceiling on how high you can get that conversion rate over the 7 - 10 yr horizon.
Where you end up with is something that looks a little a logistics "S" curve. At first, it seems preposterous that you could produce a substantial amount of power from a few wind turbines / replace ICE vehicles with EVs / replace gas and coal with heat pumps, and then suddenly 40% of your electrical energy is coming from wind / there are Teslas everywhere / you're seeing ASHPs go on all over the neighbourhood.
This potentially paywalled FT article goes into detail about where Russian gas is used in Europe. It also shows how Germany is in an unusual position in terms of domestic heating use of gas: It doesn't use gas for heating as much as NL and UK (after them are Italy, Hungary, Luxembourg, or Belgium) but of those countries, NL and UK produce a substantial amount of their own gas, Lux and Belgium are sitting right on the West to East LNG import system, Italy has supplies from Algeria and Azeri gas, and Hungary remains somewhat Russia aligned. As you go further east, there is a lot more coal and wood in the mix.
Direct link to heating fuels chart
Gas boilers have a lifetime of about 10 years (15 if installed correctly but basically none of them are!) so the "natural" replacement cycle is quite long. They are also almost always "distress" purchases so require an immediate 1:1 replacement unit to be available. It is also the case that landlords pay for capex and tenants pay for fuel costs so the incentives are completely wrong. Gas dependent countries like NL and UK have minimum thermal standards for rental properties but in both cases landlords will do the minimum to comply on paper and are not interested in making further capital/fuel cost tradeoffs than that.
The TL;DR of it is that Russia is completely screwed economically in the long term if the pressure to move off of gas is sustained but that a short term switch away from gas is really hard and certainly doesn't involve just buying a bunch of space heaters.
(I'm treating Galeev a little like the guy in the seminar group that always has something interesting to say - it's never boring but I'm not sure just how rigorous the overall framework is and whether it really bears the extrapolatory weight going onto it)
posted by atrazine at 5:35 AM on April 19, 2022 [38 favorites]
The Russian gas production on the Yamal peninsula and other Northern areas is completely tied into the European gas network all the way from the producing formations underground, through the completion, the wellhead, the dewatering systems in the field and then through pipelines to Eastern and Central Europe. Those gas wells need to flow in order to stop them freezing in the winter. They have sufficient dewatering and trace heating to operate in those conditions but it is very nontrivial to close them in safely so that they do not freeze and can be restarted.
It is also the case that if you look at a gas pipeline map, you see a thick web of interconnected pipelines from Russia's main gas fields in Western Siberia to European Russia and then into Europe. A few piddling little pipelines run East so it is absolutely not the case that they could "just" sell that gas to China, even at breakneck speed, it would take a few years to build that kind of capacity. It is also the case that China will never tolerate dependence on Russian gas so they will prevent any kind of situation where they need it on a structural basis the way Eastern Europe does. This means incredible capital expenditure to build a pipeline with a price setting offtaker on the other end not interested in long term contracts.
Also, a lot of American and European technology is used in the Russian oil and gas industry. They will struggle to replace all of it on a short timescale.
re: German nuclear, it would really be very challenging even to keep the units scheduled to close open. Nuclear maintenance operates on a multi-year timescale and many items which will reach fatigue limits in the coming years will not have been replaced nor will replacement parts have been ordered, in some cases the limited production lines for doing so are already non-functional or booked out for other work. Life extending core parts of the reactor like the pressure vessel requires a complex campaign of surveying and modelling to assure sufficient remaining fatigue life. Reactors need to be re-fuelled and fuel is custom fabricated for each reactor design, there is probably no remaining Konvoi specification fuel ready or in fabrication anywhere.
I'm not saying it couldn't be done but it is very much non-trivial to do it and would require substantial political will which I don't think is there.
My view (and my career is sort of focused around energy systems modelling in the context of reducing gas use) is that this will happen the way that the EV transition is happening and the way that F Scott Fitzgerald described the process of going broke. "Slowly at first, and then all at once". That's because the underlying consuming processes are capital intensive. In turn that means, that there are a few layers of time derivatives that you can model.
The annual gas use is where you start.
The first time derivative of that, the rate of change of gas use, is mostly due to adapting industrial processes, moving domestic heating away from gas, and improving domestic thermal efficiency.
The second time derivative is the rate at which you can ramp those things up and the third the rate at which you can ramp up the ramping up.
So to take the example of domestic heat pumps:
Gas consumption -> Rate of heat pump installation / production -> rate at which installers are trained / factory capacity expands -> rate which installer training rate / factory expansion can increase.
As a civilisation, we are good at doing things on a vast scale eventually but once you start going a few layers deep you run into constraints. So it is simply not possible to increase something like heat pump installs by more than a certain factor in one year or two years of three... but on the other hand there is not really a ceiling on how high you can get that conversion rate over the 7 - 10 yr horizon.
Where you end up with is something that looks a little a logistics "S" curve. At first, it seems preposterous that you could produce a substantial amount of power from a few wind turbines / replace ICE vehicles with EVs / replace gas and coal with heat pumps, and then suddenly 40% of your electrical energy is coming from wind / there are Teslas everywhere / you're seeing ASHPs go on all over the neighbourhood.
This potentially paywalled FT article goes into detail about where Russian gas is used in Europe. It also shows how Germany is in an unusual position in terms of domestic heating use of gas: It doesn't use gas for heating as much as NL and UK (after them are Italy, Hungary, Luxembourg, or Belgium) but of those countries, NL and UK produce a substantial amount of their own gas, Lux and Belgium are sitting right on the West to East LNG import system, Italy has supplies from Algeria and Azeri gas, and Hungary remains somewhat Russia aligned. As you go further east, there is a lot more coal and wood in the mix.
Direct link to heating fuels chart
Gas boilers have a lifetime of about 10 years (15 if installed correctly but basically none of them are!) so the "natural" replacement cycle is quite long. They are also almost always "distress" purchases so require an immediate 1:1 replacement unit to be available. It is also the case that landlords pay for capex and tenants pay for fuel costs so the incentives are completely wrong. Gas dependent countries like NL and UK have minimum thermal standards for rental properties but in both cases landlords will do the minimum to comply on paper and are not interested in making further capital/fuel cost tradeoffs than that.
The TL;DR of it is that Russia is completely screwed economically in the long term if the pressure to move off of gas is sustained but that a short term switch away from gas is really hard and certainly doesn't involve just buying a bunch of space heaters.
(I'm treating Galeev a little like the guy in the seminar group that always has something interesting to say - it's never boring but I'm not sure just how rigorous the overall framework is and whether it really bears the extrapolatory weight going onto it)
posted by atrazine at 5:35 AM on April 19, 2022 [38 favorites]
So Galeev is Russian for Gladwell?
posted by acb at 5:36 AM on April 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:36 AM on April 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
"Latin wasn't really seen as a popular lingua franca that united people in some form of theological cross-cultural body the way Galeev is talking about. It was largely unaccessible to common people, who only spoke their local vernacular, and if they heard Latin in Church it was just something the officiant said as part of the ritual."
I don't think Galeev claimed that-- Latin was something in common for the small proportion of people who knew it, and that something in common extended over large regions.
Also, Latin and possibly other sacred languages united scholars even if they didn't unite everybody.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:38 AM on April 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't think Galeev claimed that-- Latin was something in common for the small proportion of people who knew it, and that something in common extended over large regions.
Also, Latin and possibly other sacred languages united scholars even if they didn't unite everybody.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:38 AM on April 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I haven't seen this linked upthread: Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.
Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014. (via Dan Snow)
posted by adamvasco at 5:47 AM on April 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014. (via Dan Snow)
posted by adamvasco at 5:47 AM on April 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
> I don't think Galeev claimed that-- Latin was something in common for the small proportion of people who knew it, and that something in common extended over large regions.
No, but his overall thesis, as much as I could divine one, seemed to be that literary languages form the core of a unifying community, and that OCS was the seed of a culture that considered itself "Russian" -- that it's only the differing social and political evolution between the "democratic" Ukraine and the "totalitarian" Russia that's the problem.
I feel like that's an over-extrapolation of the importance of sacred languages in cultural formation. Not that what he's saying is factually wrong, at its core, but that it doesn't have sufficient strength as a framework to bear the weight of the argument he's putting on it. This is why I used the term "unsatisfied" for my general feelings about that thread. It makes me wonder what he's over-extrapolating on things I don't know as much about, and on the merit of those links themselves.
(The analog that came to mind was Seth Abramson's stuff on Twitter during the Trump administration. Nothing that he gave as basic facts was wrong but the fanciful picture he derived from linking them up and going "aha! see what I found" wasn't, in the end, fully borne out by reality. I think maybe Galeev is an Abramson of this war.)
It's possible I'm misunderstanding what he's trying to say. He has a particular digressive writing style that can make it hard to divine what he truly means -- especially when combined with the disrupting staccato rhythm required by a Twitter thread, which isn't at all helpful when it comes to communicating complex ideas. Perhaps that adds to my caution.
I'll cut it short there, as I don't want this thread to go off onto a tangent about the history of Latin or Old Church Slavonic. But hopefully this better explains my growing skepticism on that front.
posted by jammer at 6:14 AM on April 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
No, but his overall thesis, as much as I could divine one, seemed to be that literary languages form the core of a unifying community, and that OCS was the seed of a culture that considered itself "Russian" -- that it's only the differing social and political evolution between the "democratic" Ukraine and the "totalitarian" Russia that's the problem.
I feel like that's an over-extrapolation of the importance of sacred languages in cultural formation. Not that what he's saying is factually wrong, at its core, but that it doesn't have sufficient strength as a framework to bear the weight of the argument he's putting on it. This is why I used the term "unsatisfied" for my general feelings about that thread. It makes me wonder what he's over-extrapolating on things I don't know as much about, and on the merit of those links themselves.
(The analog that came to mind was Seth Abramson's stuff on Twitter during the Trump administration. Nothing that he gave as basic facts was wrong but the fanciful picture he derived from linking them up and going "aha! see what I found" wasn't, in the end, fully borne out by reality. I think maybe Galeev is an Abramson of this war.)
It's possible I'm misunderstanding what he's trying to say. He has a particular digressive writing style that can make it hard to divine what he truly means -- especially when combined with the disrupting staccato rhythm required by a Twitter thread, which isn't at all helpful when it comes to communicating complex ideas. Perhaps that adds to my caution.
I'll cut it short there, as I don't want this thread to go off onto a tangent about the history of Latin or Old Church Slavonic. But hopefully this better explains my growing skepticism on that front.
posted by jammer at 6:14 AM on April 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thank you atrazine for explaining the technical issues so succinctly.
Re Galeev, i think "treating Galeev a little like the guy in the seminar group that always has something interesting to say..." sums it up very well.
I googled him quite a bit a few weeks ago, when he was quoted in the threads so often, but did not know how to voice my concern in a way adequate for a public forum. I chose to ignore instead.
I think it is important to not forget that he is just a kid, well-meaning, sincere but really young, by which i mean he seems to lack a certain level of depth, which he may still develop. He is very junior/early in his academic career and that is not in itself bad. But not everything he states as a fact is so.
posted by 15L06 at 6:16 AM on April 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Re Galeev, i think "treating Galeev a little like the guy in the seminar group that always has something interesting to say..." sums it up very well.
I googled him quite a bit a few weeks ago, when he was quoted in the threads so often, but did not know how to voice my concern in a way adequate for a public forum. I chose to ignore instead.
I think it is important to not forget that he is just a kid, well-meaning, sincere but really young, by which i mean he seems to lack a certain level of depth, which he may still develop. He is very junior/early in his academic career and that is not in itself bad. But not everything he states as a fact is so.
posted by 15L06 at 6:16 AM on April 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
No, but his overall thesis, as much as I could divine one, seemed to be that literary languages form the core of a unifying community, and that OCS was the seed of a culture that considered itself "Russian" -- that it's only the differing social and political evolution between the "democratic" Ukraine and the "totalitarian" Russia that's the problem.
His point is that the word "Russian" was used to denote people using OCS as a sacred language even if their vernacular wasn't even Slavic.
And then used to denote people using Russian as their printed, literary, state-forming language.
Ukrainians belonged to the first set, but have been striving nonstop to nope out of the second set. And that in the second sense of the word, Ukrainians have never been and never will be Russian.
posted by ocschwar at 6:20 AM on April 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
"One question for those who know about Ukraine's religious history: Galeev mentioned Ukraine, at the local level, elected their own priests at one point. That really intrigued me, but I couldn't find much in a quick google search. Is this true?"
I don't actually know the specifics of the Ukrainian case, buuuuut that sort of system happens a bunch of times in Orthodox history in various places, so it wouldn't surprise me. (Honestly the bigger claim, to me, is that Russians NEVER locally elected priests. Russia's a really big place; I don't think "how priests were chosen in Russia vs. Ukraine" is the neat demarcation line he wants it to be.)
I looked back at the thread and he just says "priests," which isn't super-helpful, especially looking at historical things. Generally we want to specify which technical theological term regarding ordained ministry we're talking about -- deacon, priest (presbyter), or bishop (episkopos). Because sometimes people say "elders" to mean deacons and/or priests, and "priest" to mean bishop, and things like that. Because where do Orthodox bishops come from? They're literally elected by clergy. (Catholics now only do that for the Pope, and only cardinals get to vote.)
Keeping in mind that Orthodox priests are generally married, it would also not be weird for an Orthodox village in the pre-modern era to all get together after their priest died and say, "Who should our new priest be? What about Ivan? He's pretty holy, his wife is a God-fearing woman, we all trust his judgment ... yeah, let's tell the bishop we want Ivan" and then have the bishop ordain Ivan and then Ivan would keep farming and living his regular life and attending Mass every day, with the difference that now Ivan LEADS the Mass. Actually training priests and ordaining them and then mailing them where you want them to work requires a hell of a lot of money, organization, and centralized authority ... something that waxes and wanes throughout the 2,000 year history of Christianity. So you definitely see moments even in Western/Catholic Christianity where Christians in places that are suddenly "far-flung" because communication/transit networks have broken down (often with the collapse of state power in the area) are like "... well, we can't really ask the Pope to send us a priest because the Pope's in captivity in Avignon and also the Vikings have cut off all our communication links with the outside world, and we have no local seminary to train up priests, so ... I guess we'll just ask the bishop to ordain Bob next time he rolls through town? Do we all agree on Bob? Yeah, okay, Bob it is." Orthodoxy tends to be more localized and more bottom-up in organization than Catholicism (which tends to be highly centralized and top-down), so deciding who in your village is going to go get ordained isn't that weird an idea. You might even all get together in a more centralized period of local rule when priests are expected to have more education and decide, "We need a priest, let's all chip in to send Ivan to seminary in the capital for three years so he can come back and be our priest."
I mean functionally you need the bishop to ordain them, or they're not a priest. But selecting who's going to be ordained -- there's a tonnnnnnn of ways that's been done throughout history, and election isn't a weird one.
(Galeev to me seems like a reverse Seth Abramson, at least when he's been talking about areas I know a lot about. Abramson takes correct details and builds them up into an insane story; Galeev seems, to me, to have a strong intuitive grasp of the big picture, but is very wobbly when looking for supporting details. Sometimes I've been like, "Your larger point is correct; why did you choose such weird and weak examples to support it? And why didn't you refute $obvious objection with $obvious example?" He reminds me of people I know who are able to very quickly grasp the how everything fits together, but really struggle when they have to break the big idea down into pieces, because that's not how their brains work -- great at gestalt, terrible at supporting evidence.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:27 AM on April 19, 2022 [29 favorites]
I don't actually know the specifics of the Ukrainian case, buuuuut that sort of system happens a bunch of times in Orthodox history in various places, so it wouldn't surprise me. (Honestly the bigger claim, to me, is that Russians NEVER locally elected priests. Russia's a really big place; I don't think "how priests were chosen in Russia vs. Ukraine" is the neat demarcation line he wants it to be.)
I looked back at the thread and he just says "priests," which isn't super-helpful, especially looking at historical things. Generally we want to specify which technical theological term regarding ordained ministry we're talking about -- deacon, priest (presbyter), or bishop (episkopos). Because sometimes people say "elders" to mean deacons and/or priests, and "priest" to mean bishop, and things like that. Because where do Orthodox bishops come from? They're literally elected by clergy. (Catholics now only do that for the Pope, and only cardinals get to vote.)
Keeping in mind that Orthodox priests are generally married, it would also not be weird for an Orthodox village in the pre-modern era to all get together after their priest died and say, "Who should our new priest be? What about Ivan? He's pretty holy, his wife is a God-fearing woman, we all trust his judgment ... yeah, let's tell the bishop we want Ivan" and then have the bishop ordain Ivan and then Ivan would keep farming and living his regular life and attending Mass every day, with the difference that now Ivan LEADS the Mass. Actually training priests and ordaining them and then mailing them where you want them to work requires a hell of a lot of money, organization, and centralized authority ... something that waxes and wanes throughout the 2,000 year history of Christianity. So you definitely see moments even in Western/Catholic Christianity where Christians in places that are suddenly "far-flung" because communication/transit networks have broken down (often with the collapse of state power in the area) are like "... well, we can't really ask the Pope to send us a priest because the Pope's in captivity in Avignon and also the Vikings have cut off all our communication links with the outside world, and we have no local seminary to train up priests, so ... I guess we'll just ask the bishop to ordain Bob next time he rolls through town? Do we all agree on Bob? Yeah, okay, Bob it is." Orthodoxy tends to be more localized and more bottom-up in organization than Catholicism (which tends to be highly centralized and top-down), so deciding who in your village is going to go get ordained isn't that weird an idea. You might even all get together in a more centralized period of local rule when priests are expected to have more education and decide, "We need a priest, let's all chip in to send Ivan to seminary in the capital for three years so he can come back and be our priest."
I mean functionally you need the bishop to ordain them, or they're not a priest. But selecting who's going to be ordained -- there's a tonnnnnnn of ways that's been done throughout history, and election isn't a weird one.
(Galeev to me seems like a reverse Seth Abramson, at least when he's been talking about areas I know a lot about. Abramson takes correct details and builds them up into an insane story; Galeev seems, to me, to have a strong intuitive grasp of the big picture, but is very wobbly when looking for supporting details. Sometimes I've been like, "Your larger point is correct; why did you choose such weird and weak examples to support it? And why didn't you refute $obvious objection with $obvious example?" He reminds me of people I know who are able to very quickly grasp the how everything fits together, but really struggle when they have to break the big idea down into pieces, because that's not how their brains work -- great at gestalt, terrible at supporting evidence.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:27 AM on April 19, 2022 [29 favorites]
Big ups for "church used to be the TikTok," though. Big "Hello, fellow kids!" vibes.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Scholz under pressure in Germany to to supply heavy weapons to Kyiv
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
Green MP Anton Hofreiter, who visited Kyiv last week, said Germany must “finally deliver what Ukraine needs, and that is heavy weapons”. He lashed out at Scholz directly, saying “the problem is in the chancellery”.The fuck is going on at the SPD?
“What has to happen for the chancellor to finally give the green light to the supply of heavy weapons?” Johann Wadephul, deputy head of the opposition Christian Democrats' parliamentary group, said in a tweet. His party has threatened to call for the issue to be debated in the Bundestag next week.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
So Galeev is Russian for Gladwell?
Starting to feel more like tweets from the joint at the beginning of Three Days of the Condor. What with his singular Wilson Center credential.
Not that an analyst at a three letter funded think tank can't still have interesting things to say.
wiki: Congress for Cultural Freedom
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Starting to feel more like tweets from the joint at the beginning of Three Days of the Condor. What with his singular Wilson Center credential.
Not that an analyst at a three letter funded think tank can't still have interesting things to say.
wiki: Congress for Cultural Freedom
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Another example of nearby countries finding ways to help:
Reuters' Idrees Ali on Twitter
Reuters' Idrees Ali on Twitter
PRAGUE, April 19 (Reuters) - Czech defence companies will repair Ukrainian tanks and other military vehicles that have been damaged in fighting or need servicing after long-term storage, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:03 AM on April 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
Another moving essay:
They call her “the conscience of St. Petersburg.” For twenty years now, 76-year-old Yelena Andreyevna Osipova has been protesting war and the Russian government. An artist and teacher by training, Osipova spent her career teaching children to draw. These days, she brings her anti-war posters out to St. Petersburg’s central streets. In March 2022, she was arrested several times and footage of Osipova surrounded by riot police went viral online. In an interview with Meduza, Yelena Osipova talked about political protest, art, the Putin regime, and Russia’s future.
This is her story in her own words.
‘When the war started, time stopped’
posted by 15L06 at 9:27 AM on April 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
They call her “the conscience of St. Petersburg.” For twenty years now, 76-year-old Yelena Andreyevna Osipova has been protesting war and the Russian government. An artist and teacher by training, Osipova spent her career teaching children to draw. These days, she brings her anti-war posters out to St. Petersburg’s central streets. In March 2022, she was arrested several times and footage of Osipova surrounded by riot police went viral online. In an interview with Meduza, Yelena Osipova talked about political protest, art, the Putin regime, and Russia’s future.
This is her story in her own words.
‘When the war started, time stopped’
posted by 15L06 at 9:27 AM on April 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
I've often heard that it takes five support personnel to get a single soldier in the field and fighting.
That's a LOT of Ukrainian support personnel that can (and are likely eager to) get in the fight if other countries can take their places.
I know that if I were fixing up tanks and got told that I can get in one and get in the fight instead because some Czechs are fixing so that you can I would come away with a much more favorable impression of my neighbors.
I hate that this is all in the name of killing people, however necessary that is, but really love to see this kind of cooperation in the world.
posted by VTX at 9:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
That's a LOT of Ukrainian support personnel that can (and are likely eager to) get in the fight if other countries can take their places.
I know that if I were fixing up tanks and got told that I can get in one and get in the fight instead because some Czechs are fixing so that you can I would come away with a much more favorable impression of my neighbors.
I hate that this is all in the name of killing people, however necessary that is, but really love to see this kind of cooperation in the world.
posted by VTX at 9:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
The fuck is going on at the SPD?
Well one thing that comes to mind is that Gerhard Schröder, chancellor of Germany until 2005, is chairman of the board of both Nordstream AG and Rosneft, and had been nominated to be a director of Gazprom. Only last month was he expelled from SPD, after prosecutors filed charged against him for complicity in war crimes. Presumably his influence within SPD grew with the money he got from those roles, and the grift has been going on for long enough that anyone in the party has staked out a position favoring carbon energy over nukes, and can't upset their source of funds.
posted by pwnguin at 9:35 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
Well one thing that comes to mind is that Gerhard Schröder, chancellor of Germany until 2005, is chairman of the board of both Nordstream AG and Rosneft, and had been nominated to be a director of Gazprom. Only last month was he expelled from SPD, after prosecutors filed charged against him for complicity in war crimes. Presumably his influence within SPD grew with the money he got from those roles, and the grift has been going on for long enough that anyone in the party has staked out a position favoring carbon energy over nukes, and can't upset their source of funds.
posted by pwnguin at 9:35 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
Scholz just finished up another batshit insane press conference after the joint video call between allies that had been going on this morning.
No hydrocarbon embargo. No heavy weapons. No tanks. This is despite Rheinmetall basically chomping at the bit to get 50 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Is there some sort of SPD leadership piss tape that the Russians hold over them? Because I can't quite figure out what will make them actually give a shit short of Russians walking down Pariser Platz.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:54 AM on April 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
No hydrocarbon embargo. No heavy weapons. No tanks. This is despite Rheinmetall basically chomping at the bit to get 50 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Is there some sort of SPD leadership piss tape that the Russians hold over them? Because I can't quite figure out what will make them actually give a shit short of Russians walking down Pariser Platz.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:54 AM on April 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
My understanding is that German labor unions are closely allied with the SDR and they see cheap Russian gas as critical to the survival of their jobs.
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 AM on April 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
And once again, despite everything, Germany finds itself on the wrong side of history.
posted by acb at 10:22 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by acb at 10:22 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
I agree with Your Childhood Pet Rock that it’s weird that Germany isn’t sending heavy weapons (to the point that I also suspect something weird is going on behind the scenes, though I’ll note that the Greens and the Free Democrats are also split on the issue, just like Scholz’ Social Democrats). At least Scholz did announce yesterday that they will double the military aid they supply to Ukraine (to two billion euros).
There was a really weird and whiny opinion piece in Deutsche Welle today, and it’s so off that it made me wonder if the German establishment writ large were too busy patting each others’ backs about their pivot away from Russia that they didn’t notice how far they’d fallen behind public opinion.
My feeling is that Germany will eventually catch up with the rest of the EU, if only because they keep getting pushed farther than they said they’d go, but they’re definitely making heavy weather of getting there.
I realize that German internal politics appear to be fairly distant from what’s going on in Ukraine, but the amount of material aid Germany could provide to Ukraine would be a huge boon to the Ukrainian army. It’s not the difference between defeat or victory, but it would essentially mean that Ukraine wouldn’t have to worry about equipment shortage anymore, which has been Russia’s main advantage in the war.
posted by Kattullus at 10:29 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
There was a really weird and whiny opinion piece in Deutsche Welle today, and it’s so off that it made me wonder if the German establishment writ large were too busy patting each others’ backs about their pivot away from Russia that they didn’t notice how far they’d fallen behind public opinion.
My feeling is that Germany will eventually catch up with the rest of the EU, if only because they keep getting pushed farther than they said they’d go, but they’re definitely making heavy weather of getting there.
I realize that German internal politics appear to be fairly distant from what’s going on in Ukraine, but the amount of material aid Germany could provide to Ukraine would be a huge boon to the Ukrainian army. It’s not the difference between defeat or victory, but it would essentially mean that Ukraine wouldn’t have to worry about equipment shortage anymore, which has been Russia’s main advantage in the war.
posted by Kattullus at 10:29 AM on April 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
Because I can't quite figure out what will make them actually give a shit short of Russians walking down Pariser Platz.
If Russia does decide to shut the gas off at some point, I'd expect Germany to rediscover its zeal for liberty.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:41 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
If Russia does decide to shut the gas off at some point, I'd expect Germany to rediscover its zeal for liberty.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:41 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Minister-president van Nederland Mark Rutte on Twitter
📞: In a call with @ZelenskyyUa the @DefensieMin and I expressed our support as Russia begins a renewed offensive. 🇳🇱 will be sending heavier materiel to 🇺🇦, including armoured vehicles. Along with allies, we are looking into supplying additional heavy materiel.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:05 AM on April 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Issues with Galeev aside, this particular post presents a video of a current cultural figure within Russia giving a dramatic reading of Pushkin in defense of the war.
via Twitter, a Ukrainian goes on Omegle (a random video-chat matching site) and captures Russians' reactions to him. They aren't kind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:12 AM on April 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
via Twitter, a Ukrainian goes on Omegle (a random video-chat matching site) and captures Russians' reactions to him. They aren't kind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:12 AM on April 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
New Russian ultimatum to surrender or die in Mariupol.
posted by mono blanco at 11:20 AM on April 19, 2022
posted by mono blanco at 11:20 AM on April 19, 2022
In all the discussion about Germany, as mentioned in the DW article, it's worth remembering that the shift Scholz initiated (or at least presided over) - to start funding the military and stop Nordstream2 (Schroeder (*spit*) 's baby) is enormous, seismic change in a tiny period of time. Germany, politically, is waaaay adverse to big changes and Schroeder made two huge steps onto a different path. From conversations I've had, there's a general sense of "Whoa! Why so hasty! Why these big changes?! Is this prudent?!" It could well be that Schroeder used up his political capital right there and has to build some back up. It's hard to convey how adverse Germans are to war and armies and etc - it's almost the exact opposite of the ArmedForces Love prevalent in US culture. (There was an article in the SZ this past weekend about people being able to maybe admit they work in the armament/weapons industries - otherwise a very un-loved branch of the economy (often discussed is whether or not it should be outlawed altogether).) So this whole topic of is one that is very very complicated, culturally, for Germany. (To quote Faulkner - "The past isn't over, it's not even past" where 'past' equals all the fucked up shit that happened in the 1930's and 40's.)
Personally, I understand the DW's position, "But we're already doing sooooooo much!" (2 billion euro is not a little, and the EU has said they will help/pay for Ukraine's rebuilding efforts) , but there is objectively much more that could be done - I imagine a not small part of it is also internal politics among EU nations - Germany doesn't want to stick out as the one principle actor (though they are among them anyway.) Of course, there are ways around that but they haven't been arrived at yet.
Politico has a pretty good run-down of all the factions not getting along with each other.
I believe the technical term is 'SNAFU.' (And in the meantime - fuck, the 'meantime' - is between life and death. On a flyer at the corner earlier I saw they (the local Ukrainian support group) are still collecting bullet-proof vests, sleeping mats (no bright colours) and baby food, among many other things. The dithering is maddening when what is at stake is both a chance to end Putin and keep scores of civilians from dying.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:22 AM on April 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Personally, I understand the DW's position, "But we're already doing sooooooo much!" (2 billion euro is not a little, and the EU has said they will help/pay for Ukraine's rebuilding efforts) , but there is objectively much more that could be done - I imagine a not small part of it is also internal politics among EU nations - Germany doesn't want to stick out as the one principle actor (though they are among them anyway.) Of course, there are ways around that but they haven't been arrived at yet.
Politico has a pretty good run-down of all the factions not getting along with each other.
I believe the technical term is 'SNAFU.' (And in the meantime - fuck, the 'meantime' - is between life and death. On a flyer at the corner earlier I saw they (the local Ukrainian support group) are still collecting bullet-proof vests, sleeping mats (no bright colours) and baby food, among many other things. The dithering is maddening when what is at stake is both a chance to end Putin and keep scores of civilians from dying.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:22 AM on April 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
via Twitter, a Ukrainian goes on Omegle (a random video-chat matching site) and captures Russians' reactions to him. They aren't kind.
i scrolled down and that isn't from 2022 - it's from 2016
the point being is many russians were being dicks towards ukraine long before this escalation of the war started
if i'm not mistaken this is close to a black person contacting white people and being called you know what
this is just shameless
posted by pyramid termite at 11:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
i scrolled down and that isn't from 2022 - it's from 2016
the point being is many russians were being dicks towards ukraine long before this escalation of the war started
if i'm not mistaken this is close to a black person contacting white people and being called you know what
this is just shameless
posted by pyramid termite at 11:31 AM on April 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
I've created a new thread as requested. The title of the post is from the English translation of Ukraine's national anthem.
The glory and freedom of Ukraine has not yet perishedposted by interogative mood at 12:09 PM on April 19, 2022 [20 favorites]
Luck will still smile on us brother-Ukrainians.
Our enemies will die, as the dew does in the sunshine,
and we, too, brothers, we'll live happily in our land.
We’ll not spare either our souls or bodies to get freedom
and we’ll prove that we brothers are of Kozak kin.
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posted by SPrintF at 3:07 PM on April 6, 2022 [14 favorites]