French election: The Le Pen Family's Eighth Attempt at Higher Office
April 23, 2022 11:49 AM Subscribe
Who is Marine Le Pen, and why is she so much closer to winning this time? Marine's father Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the far right xenophobic National Rally (Rassemblement National) party in 1972. He made his first run for the presidency as a National Rally candidate in 1974. He would go on to run for president five more times, losing every election. Le Pen has been frequently accused of anti-semitism and xenophobia, but he has also repeatedly garnered enough supporters to influence elections for decades. In 1977, a supporter felt so strongly about him, he left Le Pen a fortune, and a house built by Napoleon III. In 2015, however, his own party expelled him for describing Nazi gas chambers as a "detail" of history — and Marine helped with the putsch.
Her rise started in the early noughts, and she took over the party leadership in 2012, which is also the first year she ran for president. Her second attempt was in 2017, and the current election is now her third. In many ways, she has presented a watered-down version of her father's politics, which is timely, as the election being fought this time is less about change than about protection:
Macron, meanwhile, is seeking his second term. A liberal centrist and a former banker who burst onto the global stage five years ago with a new political party of his own — La République En Marche! (frequently abbreviated LREM, LaREM or REM; translatable as The Republic On The Move, Republic Forward, or The Working Republic —he sidelined the traditional powerhouses on the center-right and center-left to get there. He has, however, seen his tenure beset by domestic criticism, the pandemic and now a major war on the continent. "He may be leading in the polls, but his technocratic, aloof style is far from universally popular. One woman told the president at a campaign event Thursday that to her, Sunday’s election amounted to choosing between “plague and cholera.”
In a debate on Wednesday, Mr. Macron reminded voters that Ms. Le Pen’s party had taken a loan from a Russian bank. “You depend on Mr. Putin,” he told her. Meanwhile Biden and much of the world depend on Macron to help hold together a united response to Ukraine. All of that becomes a question if Le Pen wins.
Results to the first round of voting keep Macron in the lead: He won 27.8%, Marine Le Pen won 23.1%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 22%, with 100% of votes tallied. The second round is April 24, 2022.
Her rise started in the early noughts, and she took over the party leadership in 2012, which is also the first year she ran for president. Her second attempt was in 2017, and the current election is now her third. In many ways, she has presented a watered-down version of her father's politics, which is timely, as the election being fought this time is less about change than about protection:
Who will protect the French: from the rising cost of living, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, immigrants (for some), as well as who will protect France’s generous social welfare system.If Le Pen wins the election, she would be France's first woman president. Even if she loses, however, she has already earned legitimacy, and will likely try again. She got her start in the impoverished rust belt in northern France, and what she learned there translates to rural France. Her time in the spotlight hasn't diminished her fealty to her father's ideas. Rather it has taught her to reframe them. "Over the past decade, Ms. Le Pen has pulled her party toward a kind of 'social populism,' said Gilles Ivaldi, a researcher at Sciences Po and a scholar of the far right in France and the West. She proposes “reducing VAT tax, raising low salaries and pensions, spending more on health and education.” But scratch the surface, and you will find a "populist agitator who, in the style of former President Donald J. Trump, scorns European Union “globalists,” criticizes NATO and views President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as an ally." Slate's description of her is more pithy:"She would quit NATO and maybe the EU, strip away immigrants’ rights, and ban the hijab from public spaces."
Macron, meanwhile, is seeking his second term. A liberal centrist and a former banker who burst onto the global stage five years ago with a new political party of his own — La République En Marche! (frequently abbreviated LREM, LaREM or REM; translatable as The Republic On The Move, Republic Forward, or The Working Republic —he sidelined the traditional powerhouses on the center-right and center-left to get there. He has, however, seen his tenure beset by domestic criticism, the pandemic and now a major war on the continent. "He may be leading in the polls, but his technocratic, aloof style is far from universally popular. One woman told the president at a campaign event Thursday that to her, Sunday’s election amounted to choosing between “plague and cholera.”
In a debate on Wednesday, Mr. Macron reminded voters that Ms. Le Pen’s party had taken a loan from a Russian bank. “You depend on Mr. Putin,” he told her. Meanwhile Biden and much of the world depend on Macron to help hold together a united response to Ukraine. All of that becomes a question if Le Pen wins.
Results to the first round of voting keep Macron in the lead: He won 27.8%, Marine Le Pen won 23.1%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 22%, with 100% of votes tallied. The second round is April 24, 2022.
I don't like Macron, I don't like his condescension, I don't like his neoliberal policies and what he's doing to our public services, and I really don't like that in twenty years and five elections, it's the third time that I have to vote for a rightist candidate to block a far-right candidate, but I'll be damned if I don't do my bit to avoid putting a Nazi at the head of my country.
We have a strong presidential regime, unfortunately, so even though she'll never get a lead in Parliament and a far-right government, she could do some political damage, but mostly it's the damage to my country's image and the message it would send to all the racists/xenophobes out there that I want to avoid.
posted by snakeling at 12:53 PM on April 23, 2022 [61 favorites]
We have a strong presidential regime, unfortunately, so even though she'll never get a lead in Parliament and a far-right government, she could do some political damage, but mostly it's the damage to my country's image and the message it would send to all the racists/xenophobes out there that I want to avoid.
posted by snakeling at 12:53 PM on April 23, 2022 [61 favorites]
+1 on what snakeling just said. France has no efficient counter power, and over the years the fifth republic has become even more presidential.
I’m also scared that if Le Pen is elected it will unleash all the racists and fascists to police our public spaces, and people will die. Police violence under Macron was high, but it will reach another level under Le Pen.
I have no sympathy towards Macron. I really disliked his campaign. Yet I’ll be voting for him tomorrow, because the alternative is terrifying.
posted by motdiem2 at 1:00 PM on April 23, 2022 [26 favorites]
I’m also scared that if Le Pen is elected it will unleash all the racists and fascists to police our public spaces, and people will die. Police violence under Macron was high, but it will reach another level under Le Pen.
I have no sympathy towards Macron. I really disliked his campaign. Yet I’ll be voting for him tomorrow, because the alternative is terrifying.
posted by motdiem2 at 1:00 PM on April 23, 2022 [26 favorites]
I know after Brexit and Trump we should never feel safe before an important vote, but it's calming my nerves (for now at least), that apparently a lot of French outlets are predicting a safe Macron win. I don't like the neoliberal centre that's running most of the major western economies at the moment, but if the alternative is fascism? Yah, not even a choice.
posted by Alex404 at 1:00 PM on April 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Alex404 at 1:00 PM on April 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
Votez escroc, pas facho. Whatever one's feelings about Macron, Le Pen is very clearly part of the far-right populist nationalist wave that's threatening freedom and security worldwide, and the choice is clear.
Good luck, France. We're all counting on you.
posted by biogeo at 1:15 PM on April 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
Good luck, France. We're all counting on you.
posted by biogeo at 1:15 PM on April 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
I know after Brexit and Trump we should never feel safe before an important vote, but it's calming my nerves (for now at least), that apparently a lot of French outlets are predicting a safe Macron win.
Odd to mention Trump and polling and safe win.
I'll rest when the election is over and Macron wins. (He's dreadful but he's not evil.)
posted by dobbs at 1:35 PM on April 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
Odd to mention Trump and polling and safe win.
I'll rest when the election is over and Macron wins. (He's dreadful but he's not evil.)
posted by dobbs at 1:35 PM on April 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
When the polls show a safe win it's actively not helpful, it convinces people they can stay home when they need to be getting out.
posted by subdee at 1:45 PM on April 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by subdee at 1:45 PM on April 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
I guess he's about to win, thanks to the existence of Mrs Scarecrow Le Pen. But I have to say I'm absolutely appalled by the sheer number of persons I do know who admit unashamedly they're going to vote for Marine Le Pen. This wasn't the case in pre-Macron era : some wouldn't admit it, but also most of them didn't consider voting for her party that seriously. Suckers !
posted by nicolin at 1:47 PM on April 23, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by nicolin at 1:47 PM on April 23, 2022 [13 favorites]
I know nothing about French politics, but was surprised to read that if any one of the Green, Socialist or Communist candidates would have moved behind Mélenchon, the runoff would have been between him and Macron and the conversation between candidates much different. Even the 1.75% that Anne Hidalgo, the socialist mayor of Paris, received would have been enough to bump Le Pen out of the race and slow her path to legitimacy. I know this is an age-old electoral argument, particularly among upper-level party officials, but the folks who get hurt the worst by this kind of fragmented "strategy" are the folks with the least already. So sad.
posted by mediareport at 1:53 PM on April 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by mediareport at 1:53 PM on April 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
the folks who get hurt the worst by this kind of fragmented "strategy" are the folks with the least already
But to be fair, if Zemmour had put his share behind Le Pen, she would have beaten Macron in the first round. I feel like overall the far right did better in the first round than the left. It isn't just an issue of fragmentation, but overall support for the left is lower.
posted by snofoam at 2:38 PM on April 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
But to be fair, if Zemmour had put his share behind Le Pen, she would have beaten Macron in the first round. I feel like overall the far right did better in the first round than the left. It isn't just an issue of fragmentation, but overall support for the left is lower.
posted by snofoam at 2:38 PM on April 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
Marine Le Pen is not someone who should be President of France. I would strongly prefer her not to feature in any future run-offs for the post either.
posted by plonkee at 2:38 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by plonkee at 2:38 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
I know nothing about French politics, but was surprised to read that if any one of the Green, Socialist or Communist candidates would have moved behind Mélenchon, the runoff would have been between him and Macron and the conversation between candidates much different.One of the problems with this logic is that everyone knew, from polling, that Mélenchon was unequivocally the leading Left candidate and the only one with a realistic chance at getting into the run-off. The natural conclusion is that the people who did end up casting their vote for the Greens, Socialists, etc., specifically didn't want to vote for him.
posted by kickingtheground at 2:57 PM on April 23, 2022 [8 favorites]
I know nothing about French politics, but was surprised to read that if any one of the Green, Socialist or Communist candidates would have moved behind Mélenchon, the runoff would have been between him and Macron and the conversation between candidates much different.
Listen. The only people we hate more than the Romans are the fucking Judean People's Front.
posted by TrialByMedia at 3:13 PM on April 23, 2022 [30 favorites]
Listen. The only people we hate more than the Romans are the fucking Judean People's Front.
posted by TrialByMedia at 3:13 PM on April 23, 2022 [30 favorites]
As a USian, I feel this choice between bad and disastrous. Bonne chance mes amis.
posted by zenzenobia at 3:15 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by zenzenobia at 3:15 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm not very well versed on French politics. Did I read incorrectly, or has Macron been running on a platform aspiring to raising the retirement age?
posted by SoberHighland at 4:01 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by SoberHighland at 4:01 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
> If any one of the Green, Socialist or Communist candidates would have moved behind Mélenchon, the runoff would have been between him and Macron and the conversation between candidates much different.
Yes, and if Zemmour and Pécresse threw their weight behind Le Pen, Le Pen would have such a commanding lead nobody would think Macron had a chance. It's a multiparty system, the whole point is to allow you to vote for your party in the first round and then for the best of the remaining two in the next...
posted by dis_integration at 4:08 PM on April 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yes, and if Zemmour and Pécresse threw their weight behind Le Pen, Le Pen would have such a commanding lead nobody would think Macron had a chance. It's a multiparty system, the whole point is to allow you to vote for your party in the first round and then for the best of the remaining two in the next...
posted by dis_integration at 4:08 PM on April 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
has Macron been running on a platform aspiring to raising the retirement age?
Raising retirement age, completely changing the way retirement pensions are calculated and budgeted in a way that will basically fuck everyone over (but some more than others), and returning to a longer work-week. Because that'll help with the high unemployment.
posted by snakeling at 4:49 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Raising retirement age, completely changing the way retirement pensions are calculated and budgeted in a way that will basically fuck everyone over (but some more than others), and returning to a longer work-week. Because that'll help with the high unemployment.
posted by snakeling at 4:49 PM on April 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
If you're the sort of person who wants to consult the published polling, the Wikipedia page is fairly detailed.
posted by gimonca at 6:26 PM on April 23, 2022
posted by gimonca at 6:26 PM on April 23, 2022
It's a multiparty system, the whole point is to allow you to vote for your party in the first round and then for the best of the remaining two in the next...
Deal-making is part of a multiparty system, too, and discussions about who should drop out of presidential elections in multi-party races aren't anything new or shocking. It wasn't hard to find an example in France: the 2012 presidential election, when the Green candidate with little support was pressured to pull out so Hollande could be assured of winning. She didn't, but the idea was hardly beyond the pale. From what I've seen of them from afar, multi-party systems allow for plenty of that kind of strategizing.
I read recently in Al Jazeera, I think, that the main reason Hidalgo didn't quit this race in the first round was because she thought it would cement the slide into irrelevancy of the Socialist party on the national stage. Looks like they cemented their irrelevancy anyway, but that's a view from afar so I'll shut up now.
posted by mediareport at 6:48 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
Deal-making is part of a multiparty system, too, and discussions about who should drop out of presidential elections in multi-party races aren't anything new or shocking. It wasn't hard to find an example in France: the 2012 presidential election, when the Green candidate with little support was pressured to pull out so Hollande could be assured of winning. She didn't, but the idea was hardly beyond the pale. From what I've seen of them from afar, multi-party systems allow for plenty of that kind of strategizing.
I read recently in Al Jazeera, I think, that the main reason Hidalgo didn't quit this race in the first round was because she thought it would cement the slide into irrelevancy of the Socialist party on the national stage. Looks like they cemented their irrelevancy anyway, but that's a view from afar so I'll shut up now.
posted by mediareport at 6:48 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
In 2002, I was a senior in high school, taking first-period French with a guy who had lived in the 6eme arrondissement for some years. The morning after the runoff election in April, he showed up to school looking worse than any grown human I had previously observed, having (in hindsight) spent the evening following the returns with a bottle of something high-proof in hand. The only words he uttered all day were "Chirac Le Pen," with the sort of dazed disbelief that I wouldn't see again until November of 2016.
To their credit, France saw that they could choose between a vaguely unpopular leftist and an honest-to-god Nazi, and absolutely blew Le Pen (the elder) out of the water... IIRC it was something like a 75 point win. I hope they do the same to his equally vile daughter, but the last five years have taught us never to take anything for granted.
Good luck, mes amis. We're all counting on you.
posted by Mayor West at 7:19 PM on April 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
To their credit, France saw that they could choose between a vaguely unpopular leftist and an honest-to-god Nazi, and absolutely blew Le Pen (the elder) out of the water... IIRC it was something like a 75 point win. I hope they do the same to his equally vile daughter, but the last five years have taught us never to take anything for granted.
Good luck, mes amis. We're all counting on you.
posted by Mayor West at 7:19 PM on April 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
i believe the top left candidate that lost in the 1st round, melenchon, was also supported by putin. what happened to the normal social democrats or socialist party that made them so unpopular that they now barely get 10%?
posted by wibari at 7:36 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by wibari at 7:36 PM on April 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
what happened to the normal social democrats or socialist party that made them so unpopular that they now barely get 10%?
Left wing base sees them as having sold out. Centrist base got scooped by Macron (a former PS cabinet minister) when he split off his own party.
posted by atoxyl at 9:34 PM on April 23, 2022
Left wing base sees them as having sold out. Centrist base got scooped by Macron (a former PS cabinet minister) when he split off his own party.
posted by atoxyl at 9:34 PM on April 23, 2022
It's like popping down to your favorite brasserie and being offered a andouillette sausage or a plate of actual shit. What ever happened to that great cassoulet they used to do?
posted by St. Oops at 10:35 PM on April 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 10:35 PM on April 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
One of these days I’d like to read a deep dive on why English-language reporting on French politics is so bad.
There are some very good correspondents and analysts, Madeleine Schwartz and Angelique Chrisafis both spring to mind, but Anglophone news editors seem mostly interested in pieces which boil down to “why is Le Pen”.
Which is kinda the least unique part of French politics, all countries seem to have a nationalistic right, and they tend to be broadly similar.
Macron is a much rarer figure, a centrist outsider who has managed to attain and wield power. I can’t think of anyone comparable in a populous country. But there’s precious little analysis of that.
posted by Kattullus at 1:29 AM on April 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
There are some very good correspondents and analysts, Madeleine Schwartz and Angelique Chrisafis both spring to mind, but Anglophone news editors seem mostly interested in pieces which boil down to “why is Le Pen”.
Which is kinda the least unique part of French politics, all countries seem to have a nationalistic right, and they tend to be broadly similar.
Macron is a much rarer figure, a centrist outsider who has managed to attain and wield power. I can’t think of anyone comparable in a populous country. But there’s precious little analysis of that.
posted by Kattullus at 1:29 AM on April 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
what happened to the normal social democrats or socialist party that made them so unpopular that they now barely get 10%?
Hollande. He ended up being the most unpopular president in French polling history by the end. After the excesses of Sarkozy, he was supposed to be Mr Normal. He failed to deliver any meaningful improvement economically, and was seen as weak and a ditherer who broke his promises. He was also a sellout, as he attempted to pander to right wing voters on immigration for example.
Centre right and centre left were both left very fractured after the pair of them, and Macron rode in to be the new alternative 'neither left, nor right' that nabbed the centrist voters off both, though he's proved to be more centre right in practise, including several tax cuts for the wealthy. Cost of living and high unemployment are perennial protest issues in France, and nobody in the centre seems able or willing to actually improve things - or actively makes them worse - hence the growing popularity of far left and far right populism in Mélenchon and Le Pen respectively.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:46 AM on April 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
Hollande. He ended up being the most unpopular president in French polling history by the end. After the excesses of Sarkozy, he was supposed to be Mr Normal. He failed to deliver any meaningful improvement economically, and was seen as weak and a ditherer who broke his promises. He was also a sellout, as he attempted to pander to right wing voters on immigration for example.
Centre right and centre left were both left very fractured after the pair of them, and Macron rode in to be the new alternative 'neither left, nor right' that nabbed the centrist voters off both, though he's proved to be more centre right in practise, including several tax cuts for the wealthy. Cost of living and high unemployment are perennial protest issues in France, and nobody in the centre seems able or willing to actually improve things - or actively makes them worse - hence the growing popularity of far left and far right populism in Mélenchon and Le Pen respectively.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:46 AM on April 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
Macron is a much rarer figure, a centrist outsider who has managed to attain and wield power. I can’t think of anyone comparable in a populous country. But there’s precious little analysis of that.
I have always assumed that Macron was a bit like Blair or Clinton but in a different era, and taking a different route to power. This assumption is, however, based on nothing. You're right that he's interesting and unusual. There were a few articles about En Marche when he first came to power, but I think the anglophone press have forgotten that he was ever an outsider.
posted by plonkee at 2:07 AM on April 24, 2022
I have always assumed that Macron was a bit like Blair or Clinton but in a different era, and taking a different route to power. This assumption is, however, based on nothing. You're right that he's interesting and unusual. There were a few articles about En Marche when he first came to power, but I think the anglophone press have forgotten that he was ever an outsider.
posted by plonkee at 2:07 AM on April 24, 2022
everyone knew, from polling, that Mélenchon was unequivocally the leading Left candidate and the only one with a realistic chance at getting into the run-off. The natural conclusion is that the people who did end up casting their vote for the Greens, Socialists, etc., specifically didn't want to vote for him.
This, very much... Melenchon needs to come down from his ego-saddle, do as he said he would, retire and hand the reins down a generation.
I've had conversations several times with people who were surprisingly onboard with some of his policy proposals, given their previous political bent, but who said they just can't get past him personally.
For me, as an outsider now naturalised here (and voting for the first time), the one positive that stands out is that I still find French political debate and campaigning a world away from what things have degenerated to in my birthplace (Brexit Pudding Island). Enough people here do still genuinely want debate and examination of policy ahead of spectacle and personal confrontation for it to feel a substantially different political environment to be involved in.
posted by protorp at 2:15 AM on April 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
This, very much... Melenchon needs to come down from his ego-saddle, do as he said he would, retire and hand the reins down a generation.
I've had conversations several times with people who were surprisingly onboard with some of his policy proposals, given their previous political bent, but who said they just can't get past him personally.
For me, as an outsider now naturalised here (and voting for the first time), the one positive that stands out is that I still find French political debate and campaigning a world away from what things have degenerated to in my birthplace (Brexit Pudding Island). Enough people here do still genuinely want debate and examination of policy ahead of spectacle and personal confrontation for it to feel a substantially different political environment to be involved in.
posted by protorp at 2:15 AM on April 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
For those who'd like more background, The Economist put out a pretty good, long profile of Macron and his rise a few weeks back:
Archive.org link
posted by protorp at 2:21 AM on April 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
Archive.org link
posted by protorp at 2:21 AM on April 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thanks for that link, protorp. One thing I take from it is that Macron is a fairly good at reacting to events, but seems completely unable to present and enact any kind of vision for France. He’s good at the theater of politics, but not its business. This wouldn’t be such a problem if he was the leader of an established party, with hundreds of ready-made policies and alternatives to those policies, and a shared ideology. But Macron is a one-man show, not exactly a general without an army, but a general who doesn’t have anything to fight for, other than glory.
posted by Kattullus at 5:10 AM on April 24, 2022
posted by Kattullus at 5:10 AM on April 24, 2022
Kattulus, that's a pretty accurate way of describing it. Macron is very tactical, bordering on cynicism. The upside is that he can be quite pragmatic during a crisis, the downside is that he has no vision and will pander to whoever he thinks will be key to either help him win the next election, or reduce the power of his adversaries.
He's good at it, but people around it are not that great : the legislative production in parliament has been abysmal, and each minister has sort of done their own thing (I personally think health and foreign affairs did an ok job, defense and interior did a bad job, education and justice were disastrous)
Beside policy disagreement, the main problem I have is I feel there is no alternative. A sign of a functioning democracy to me is that there can be a change in political parties and the country more or less continues to function, event if part of the population is unhappy about it. Assuming Macron gets re-elected today, the situation in 5 years will be super scary : I don't think he's good at preparing a successor, I think people will want change, and I don't see the left+greens unifying efficiently. My only hope is that the far right keeps dividing itself and generally behave stupidly every time they win a tiny thing, which they have done so far.
posted by motdiem2 at 5:31 AM on April 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
He's good at it, but people around it are not that great : the legislative production in parliament has been abysmal, and each minister has sort of done their own thing (I personally think health and foreign affairs did an ok job, defense and interior did a bad job, education and justice were disastrous)
Beside policy disagreement, the main problem I have is I feel there is no alternative. A sign of a functioning democracy to me is that there can be a change in political parties and the country more or less continues to function, event if part of the population is unhappy about it. Assuming Macron gets re-elected today, the situation in 5 years will be super scary : I don't think he's good at preparing a successor, I think people will want change, and I don't see the left+greens unifying efficiently. My only hope is that the far right keeps dividing itself and generally behave stupidly every time they win a tiny thing, which they have done so far.
posted by motdiem2 at 5:31 AM on April 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
I imagine that if Russia has any capacity for mayhem left over after the Ukraine war, it would be devoting 110% of it to getting Le Pen elected, as that would be a very timely bomb at the heart of the EU and NATO. Hopefully the polls are accurate and Russia's shenanigans capacity is tied up by the war and/or thwarted by sanctions, expulsions of “diplomats” and intelligence countermeasures pinning down illegals.
posted by acb at 6:04 AM on April 24, 2022
posted by acb at 6:04 AM on April 24, 2022
For those who'd like more background, The Economist put out a pretty good, long profile of Macron and his rise a few weeks back:
Thank you, that was helpful. He is clearly nothing like Blair or Clinton, even with the same kind of centrist political views. He is a very interesting person, particularly in comparison to Le Pen, who is frankly just what you might expect as her father's daughter.
posted by plonkee at 6:51 AM on April 24, 2022
Thank you, that was helpful. He is clearly nothing like Blair or Clinton, even with the same kind of centrist political views. He is a very interesting person, particularly in comparison to Le Pen, who is frankly just what you might expect as her father's daughter.
posted by plonkee at 6:51 AM on April 24, 2022
Macron is a fox amongst wolves. He has enormously benefited from the dissatisfaction following Hollande's term, and then from the collapse of his natural contender's candidacy (i.e. Fillon's one). He's a victim of circumstances, but a really well-prepared one, working hard to turn all odds in his favour, if not in a masterful, at least in an efficient way. He deprived both moderately right and left leaning parties from all their traditional votes and continuously strives to hinder their reconstruction.
posted by nicolin at 7:34 AM on April 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by nicolin at 7:34 AM on April 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Assuming Macron wins tonight, there's no good reason to assume that En Marche will not continue as an important force in 2027 and beyond. It will have been the party of Presidential government and the leading force in Parliament for ten years. Parties to the left and the right have each become committed to radicalisms unacceptable to the establishment, and have lost (in the case of the left) or never had (in the case of the right) the moderates who could lead course corrections.
posted by MattD at 8:37 AM on April 24, 2022
posted by MattD at 8:37 AM on April 24, 2022
Note that I presume that Les Republicains have simply been superseded by En Marche as the natural home of the center-right. If Le Pen wins tonight than perhaps LR can rebuild itself. Otherwise, they will probably barely be a force in Parliament 2022-2027 and nowhere to be found in the 2027 elections.
posted by MattD at 8:39 AM on April 24, 2022
posted by MattD at 8:39 AM on April 24, 2022
I read parties in the fifth republic as a mean to bring a candidate to the presidency : to a certain extent, the PS was an anomaly, but none of the parties of former presidents (RPR, UDF, UMP) have subsided after their champion was voted out. I don’t think En Marche will be an exception, they’re very weak as far as party structures go.
posted by motdiem2 at 9:48 AM on April 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by motdiem2 at 9:48 AM on April 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Do we have to get to >30 comments to point out that Melanchon wanted to pull France out of NATO? Before, say, 2012, this might have put him to left on foreign policy, but, certainly after February 2022 it put him to the far right. Le Pen merely wants France to have more independence within NATO, which is to say, Melanchon's left on that particular issue. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine I'd say this is what should be the most salient issue for any voter in any democratic country because Russia has shown over and over that it will spread its fascism abroad (e.g. Orban, Brexit, Trump, Ukraine, indeed, even Le Pen herself) and crush democracy. Putin needs to lose this war badly, and NATO and the EU and any other international institutions opposed to him need to be strengthened. France came very close to having a runoff between two anti-NATO, euroskeptic candidates, which would have been a huge victory for Putin.
People talk about the provincialism of US opinion, and man, I just get so frustrated with US (and sometimes Anglo opinion in general) just assumes that the left and right of any country lines up neatly with US or UK left and right.
It's terrifying that about 45% of France saw the Russian war crimes and still voted for anti-NATO candidates.
posted by Luminiferous Ether at 9:49 AM on April 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
People talk about the provincialism of US opinion, and man, I just get so frustrated with US (and sometimes Anglo opinion in general) just assumes that the left and right of any country lines up neatly with US or UK left and right.
It's terrifying that about 45% of France saw the Russian war crimes and still voted for anti-NATO candidates.
posted by Luminiferous Ether at 9:49 AM on April 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
If you read French, Le Monde has been posting interviews with voters for the whole day.
What I find fascinating is that :
- people are not afraid of putting their name and photo and saying they voted le pen
- none of the le pen voters talked about foreign policy - the only thing that mattered were pensions and cost of living
I know preliminary polls are looking ok for Macron, but I’m still super anxious about the result
posted by motdiem2 at 10:01 AM on April 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
What I find fascinating is that :
- people are not afraid of putting their name and photo and saying they voted le pen
- none of the le pen voters talked about foreign policy - the only thing that mattered were pensions and cost of living
I know preliminary polls are looking ok for Macron, but I’m still super anxious about the result
posted by motdiem2 at 10:01 AM on April 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
Shortly after polls close in France, which is after about seven minutes, as I type this.
posted by Kattullus at 10:53 AM on April 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 10:53 AM on April 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Macron is elected with 58% (these results are usually good but will get refined over the next few hours)
posted by motdiem2 at 11:00 AM on April 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by motdiem2 at 11:00 AM on April 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
So, I just read through Le Monde’s explainer on abstention vs vote blanc vs vote nul. The trouble I’m having though is that they are also reporting that abstention (non participation in the election) was higher this year than since 1969. How does that square with the idea that vote blanc is the way you say “both of these are not ok”? Has that changed, or are people really disinterested in politics (and thus not voting at all)?
posted by nat at 11:25 AM on April 24, 2022
posted by nat at 11:25 AM on April 24, 2022
It's worth highlighting what happens next, if you don't know the system... yes, it's the first time a president with a majority in parliament has been re-elected, as all the anglo news sources are parroting... but parliamentary elections will be held in just under 2 months, and those will reveal a huge amount more about what we can expect from the next 5 years.
Thankfully Le Pen et al will have much less influence on this step, as the "Republican" alliance to keep out the FN at local levels is still almost entirely watertight.
The big question is whether Melenchon will go back on his retirement plans, pull together an alliance with the greens and communists and win enough votes to form an obstructionist cohabiting government with him as Prime Minister.
posted by protorp at 11:26 AM on April 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
Thankfully Le Pen et al will have much less influence on this step, as the "Republican" alliance to keep out the FN at local levels is still almost entirely watertight.
The big question is whether Melenchon will go back on his retirement plans, pull together an alliance with the greens and communists and win enough votes to form an obstructionist cohabiting government with him as Prime Minister.
posted by protorp at 11:26 AM on April 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
nat, yes, particularly amongst 18 - 25 year olds the sense that they're all the same, none of this will make any difference to my life etc. is worryingly on the rise. That's also the demographic that has no particularly active, direct memory of Jean-Marie Le Pen and how unutterably, blatantly vile he was (is), hence a much weaker "hold the nose, do the duty" instinct.
I don't recall where I read it, but there was an interesting article around recently about how it's increasingly the Boomer vote that's making the biggest contribution to countering the far right in European elections.
posted by protorp at 11:31 AM on April 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
I don't recall where I read it, but there was an interesting article around recently about how it's increasingly the Boomer vote that's making the biggest contribution to countering the far right in European elections.
posted by protorp at 11:31 AM on April 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
So, I just read through Le Monde’s explainer on abstention vs vote blanc vs vote nul. The trouble I’m having though is that they are also reporting that abstention (non participation in the election) was higher this year than since 1969. How does that square with the idea that vote blanc is the way you say “both of these are not ok”? Has that changed, or are people really disinterested in politics (and thus not voting at all)?
It's complex.
Vote nul or vote blanc are both people who decided to go out of their day to vote, and also decided to cast a vote that wouldn't count toward either candidate. Today in my local poll station, we got a lot of empty envelopes (vote blanc), and a few envelopes either with defaced ballot paper (one person had drawn a skull and bones on the O of Macron), or with candidates from the first round. Those are definitely people who deliberately protest the system, but from within. Their ballot papers are counted, and the results are available on the Ministry's website, yet barely anyone bother to report the results in the media, so they're not visible.
Abstention is people not voting. Maybe they didn't vote because they forgot, maybe they didn't vote because they couldn't, for whatever reason (illness, were too late setting up a procuration, expats too far from their local poll station), maybe they didn't vote because they preferred to go fishing that day, maybe they didn't vote because they're rejecting the whole system. Problem is, there is no way of distinguishing between all these categories, but it's the only number that gets widely reported.
Twenty years ago, abstention tended to be really low for most elections, with participation being excellent for presidential elections to mostly good for European elections. In the last twenty years, abstention has been rising, even as the procedure to get enrolled got easier (it used to be that you had to go in person to the mairie, before December 31 of the year preceding the elections. Now you can do it wholly online, and you have until a month or so before the election, iirc). Disengagement is definitely a big part of it.
posted by snakeling at 12:27 PM on April 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
It's complex.
Vote nul or vote blanc are both people who decided to go out of their day to vote, and also decided to cast a vote that wouldn't count toward either candidate. Today in my local poll station, we got a lot of empty envelopes (vote blanc), and a few envelopes either with defaced ballot paper (one person had drawn a skull and bones on the O of Macron), or with candidates from the first round. Those are definitely people who deliberately protest the system, but from within. Their ballot papers are counted, and the results are available on the Ministry's website, yet barely anyone bother to report the results in the media, so they're not visible.
Abstention is people not voting. Maybe they didn't vote because they forgot, maybe they didn't vote because they couldn't, for whatever reason (illness, were too late setting up a procuration, expats too far from their local poll station), maybe they didn't vote because they preferred to go fishing that day, maybe they didn't vote because they're rejecting the whole system. Problem is, there is no way of distinguishing between all these categories, but it's the only number that gets widely reported.
Twenty years ago, abstention tended to be really low for most elections, with participation being excellent for presidential elections to mostly good for European elections. In the last twenty years, abstention has been rising, even as the procedure to get enrolled got easier (it used to be that you had to go in person to the mairie, before December 31 of the year preceding the elections. Now you can do it wholly online, and you have until a month or so before the election, iirc). Disengagement is definitely a big part of it.
posted by snakeling at 12:27 PM on April 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
In Slovenia's election today, it seems that the country has shifted from a right-winged populist to their environmentalist party.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:44 PM on April 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:44 PM on April 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
An angle which isn't yet being reported much is how this result pretty firmly establishes Macron as the two hundred kg elder statesman of the EU. The end of an era was already clear enough in the wake of Brexit and the departure of Merkel ; now with Ukraine the old order and tacit settlement of what the EU is and should be has been completely overturned.
I don't doubt that Macron will be the dominant voice in what comes next ; the international stage is, in a lot of ways, easy mode for his brand of suave pomposity, personal charm, attention to policy detail and ability to wriggle like a greased piglet.
posted by protorp at 2:31 PM on April 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
I don't doubt that Macron will be the dominant voice in what comes next ; the international stage is, in a lot of ways, easy mode for his brand of suave pomposity, personal charm, attention to policy detail and ability to wriggle like a greased piglet.
posted by protorp at 2:31 PM on April 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is a bullet dodged.....but What the hell happened in Guadelopue, French Guinea and Martinique? (scroll down)
Also, look at the vote movement graph for some sobering data.
posted by lalochezia at 4:50 PM on April 24, 2022
Also, look at the vote movement graph for some sobering data.
posted by lalochezia at 4:50 PM on April 24, 2022
In his victory speech, [Macron] thanked all those who voted for him, as well as those who didn’t vote for him out of support for his program but to block the far-right, showing their “attachement to republican values” and “humanism.” [Variety] An estimated 28.2% of registered voters didn’t go to the polls, marking the highest abstention rate in a presidential run-off since 1969, according to the news website France 24.
Analysis: In troubled France, no honeymoon for re-elected Macron [Reuters; archived link]
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:02 PM on April 24, 2022
Analysis: In troubled France, no honeymoon for re-elected Macron [Reuters; archived link]
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:02 PM on April 24, 2022
The oversea territories have quite low turnout, around 40-60%, vs. continental France with 75-80%. People who are going to vote for Le Pen are probably more motivated than those who vote Macron, especially if they went with Mélenchon in the first round.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 6:13 PM on April 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 6:13 PM on April 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
Do we have to get to >30 comments to point out that Melanchon wanted to pull France out of NATO? Before, say, 2012, this might have put him to left on foreign policy, but, certainly after February 2022 it put him to the far right. Le Pen merely wants France to have more independence within NATO, which is to say, Melanchon's left on that particular issue. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine I'd say this is what should be the most salient issue for any voter in any democratic country because Russia has shown over and over that it will spread its fascism abroad (e.g. Orban, Brexit, Trump, Ukraine, indeed, even Le Pen herself) and crush democracy. Putin needs to lose this war badly, and NATO and the EU and any other international institutions opposed to him need to be strengthened. France came very close to having a runoff between two anti-NATO, euroskeptic candidates, which would have been a huge victory for Putin.
People talk about the provincialism of US opinion, and man, I just get so frustrated with US (and sometimes Anglo opinion in general) just assumes that the left and right of any country lines up neatly with US or UK left and right.
It's terrifying that about 45% of France saw the Russian war crimes and still voted for anti-NATO candidates.
I don't think it makes any kind of sense to insist on views toward NATO as being on the left or "far right" (I also don't think euroskepticism maps that way). It is entirely logical that parties which are radical would be against institutions which embody the current global order, whether those parties are far right or far left and whether that institution is the EU, NATO, or the WTO for that matter.
I also think that there is an awful lot of wishful thinking, combined with an over-estimation of Russian competence inherent in that line of thought. If Putin made Grandma in Kansas vote for Donny and Uncle Teddy in Bournemouth do Brexit (and while he was at, he made Hungarians xenophobic conservatives and got the French to vote for a sort of cat-lady Hitler figure) then we can excise the danger, wall ourselves off from nasty old Volodya and his bad, bad Siloviki and we'd be sorted. There is no need for us to do politics, no need to wonder why any of these things happened (Russia did them to us), no need to consider why our neighbours would vote for ideas which are so transparently bad (Russia tricked them!), no need to consider whether the current centre consensus is working for everyone. That does require believing that the same country which spent billions subverting Ukraine only to discover that all of the money had been diverted to KGB mansions or simply given to Ukrainians with no intention of obeying Russia (what, Russia is going to sue for a refund?), the same country whose propaganda arms have again and again made their country look even more ridiculous and weaker than their military blunders, that this leaking old sieve of an organisation just did those things to all of these polities from the outside. I don't find that very convincing.
Thanks for that link, protorp. One thing I take from it is that Macron is a fairly good at reacting to events, but seems completely unable to present and enact any kind of vision for France. He’s good at the theater of politics, but not its business. This wouldn’t be such a problem if he was the leader of an established party, with hundreds of ready-made policies and alternatives to those policies, and a shared ideology. But Macron is a one-man show, not exactly a general without an army, but a general who doesn’t have anything to fight for, other than glory.
The thing is, on one level he's this interesting and mysterious character who came out of nowhere and just started a party and immediately became president. (I mean, the party literally has the same initials as he does!). On the other hand, if you consider his Enarque background and his previous work as an investment banker, I think that actually describes who he is and what he wants to achieve perfectly with no mystery required. He's the ultimate technocratic fixer with the kind of polish and cultural depth that would be much rarer I think of an Anglo world investment banker but ultimately still the man from McKinsey. All of his policies, his statements, everything he stands for come directly out of good Paris dinner parties, filtered through highly competent policy making and thusly to fruition. It's like The Economist learned how to speak French and turned into a man.
So unemployment is high and retirement benefits are highly inconsistent and difficult to fund? Change labour laws and harmonise retirement (in a way that reduces spending by increasing the retirement age for many). This is all out of the standard playbook of neoliberal economics. Of course he is French so much of a believer in national champion companies and industrial strategy than someone with an analogous background from an Anglo country but still, he just isn't that surprising.
posted by atrazine at 9:05 AM on April 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
People talk about the provincialism of US opinion, and man, I just get so frustrated with US (and sometimes Anglo opinion in general) just assumes that the left and right of any country lines up neatly with US or UK left and right.
It's terrifying that about 45% of France saw the Russian war crimes and still voted for anti-NATO candidates.
I don't think it makes any kind of sense to insist on views toward NATO as being on the left or "far right" (I also don't think euroskepticism maps that way). It is entirely logical that parties which are radical would be against institutions which embody the current global order, whether those parties are far right or far left and whether that institution is the EU, NATO, or the WTO for that matter.
I also think that there is an awful lot of wishful thinking, combined with an over-estimation of Russian competence inherent in that line of thought. If Putin made Grandma in Kansas vote for Donny and Uncle Teddy in Bournemouth do Brexit (and while he was at, he made Hungarians xenophobic conservatives and got the French to vote for a sort of cat-lady Hitler figure) then we can excise the danger, wall ourselves off from nasty old Volodya and his bad, bad Siloviki and we'd be sorted. There is no need for us to do politics, no need to wonder why any of these things happened (Russia did them to us), no need to consider why our neighbours would vote for ideas which are so transparently bad (Russia tricked them!), no need to consider whether the current centre consensus is working for everyone. That does require believing that the same country which spent billions subverting Ukraine only to discover that all of the money had been diverted to KGB mansions or simply given to Ukrainians with no intention of obeying Russia (what, Russia is going to sue for a refund?), the same country whose propaganda arms have again and again made their country look even more ridiculous and weaker than their military blunders, that this leaking old sieve of an organisation just did those things to all of these polities from the outside. I don't find that very convincing.
Thanks for that link, protorp. One thing I take from it is that Macron is a fairly good at reacting to events, but seems completely unable to present and enact any kind of vision for France. He’s good at the theater of politics, but not its business. This wouldn’t be such a problem if he was the leader of an established party, with hundreds of ready-made policies and alternatives to those policies, and a shared ideology. But Macron is a one-man show, not exactly a general without an army, but a general who doesn’t have anything to fight for, other than glory.
The thing is, on one level he's this interesting and mysterious character who came out of nowhere and just started a party and immediately became president. (I mean, the party literally has the same initials as he does!). On the other hand, if you consider his Enarque background and his previous work as an investment banker, I think that actually describes who he is and what he wants to achieve perfectly with no mystery required. He's the ultimate technocratic fixer with the kind of polish and cultural depth that would be much rarer I think of an Anglo world investment banker but ultimately still the man from McKinsey. All of his policies, his statements, everything he stands for come directly out of good Paris dinner parties, filtered through highly competent policy making and thusly to fruition. It's like The Economist learned how to speak French and turned into a man.
So unemployment is high and retirement benefits are highly inconsistent and difficult to fund? Change labour laws and harmonise retirement (in a way that reduces spending by increasing the retirement age for many). This is all out of the standard playbook of neoliberal economics. Of course he is French so much of a believer in national champion companies and industrial strategy than someone with an analogous background from an Anglo country but still, he just isn't that surprising.
posted by atrazine at 9:05 AM on April 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
Le Pen has been frequently accused of anti-semitism and xenophobia,
he was also frequently anti-semitic and xenophobic!
amazing coincidences in this old world
posted by queenofbithynia at 8:12 PM on April 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
he was also frequently anti-semitic and xenophobic!
amazing coincidences in this old world
posted by queenofbithynia at 8:12 PM on April 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
atrazine: It's like The Economist learned how to speak French and turned into a man.
I agree that it isn’t surprising that he exists, but what is surprising is that he won, and not only won, but retained power. There are a million politicians all around the world who are walking, talking instantiations of the latest issue of The Economist, but they never get anywhere near enough popular support to attain power. Yes, sometimes in coalition governments, but never on their own.
I talked with my dad about this (he is, among other things, an analyst of French politics) and his explanation is that Macron was incredibly lucky in 2017. First of all, the Socialists were in total disarray, to the point that many party bigwigs threw their support behind him rather than the Socialist candidate. But even more crucially, the candidate of the center-right, François Fillon, got embroiled in a scandal and instead of stepping aside, limped to the finish line, boosting both Macron and Le Pen, which due to the mechanics of the two-round system, gave Macron essentially a free run at the presidency.
As to why he kept power, and this is my theory, is that his particular reactive skill-set turned out to be very suited to a global pandemic. He had to shelve his most unpopular ideas, and the various Covid policies turned out to be beneficial to vast swathes of France. Not enough to make him beloved, but enough that it took the sting out of the hate.
Macron seems to understand that, based on his victory speech, where he talked about cooperation and dialog. It’ll be interesting to see what he does in his second term, whether he manages to do much at all. What will happen in the legislative election in two months time is very much up in the air, and depends on which parties will agree to work together. Macron’s center might hold, or the left-wing could have a majority.
Due to the two-round system being used in legislative elections too, it seems very unlikely that Le Pen’s far-right party will be large enough to get them into power. Say what you will about the French, they have demonstrated time and time again that in case of fascism, they are absolutely willing to settle for the lesser evil.
And then build barricades and occupy roundabouts to hang effigies of that lesser evil, but only after keeping the fascists out.
posted by Kattullus at 12:47 AM on April 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
I agree that it isn’t surprising that he exists, but what is surprising is that he won, and not only won, but retained power. There are a million politicians all around the world who are walking, talking instantiations of the latest issue of The Economist, but they never get anywhere near enough popular support to attain power. Yes, sometimes in coalition governments, but never on their own.
I talked with my dad about this (he is, among other things, an analyst of French politics) and his explanation is that Macron was incredibly lucky in 2017. First of all, the Socialists were in total disarray, to the point that many party bigwigs threw their support behind him rather than the Socialist candidate. But even more crucially, the candidate of the center-right, François Fillon, got embroiled in a scandal and instead of stepping aside, limped to the finish line, boosting both Macron and Le Pen, which due to the mechanics of the two-round system, gave Macron essentially a free run at the presidency.
As to why he kept power, and this is my theory, is that his particular reactive skill-set turned out to be very suited to a global pandemic. He had to shelve his most unpopular ideas, and the various Covid policies turned out to be beneficial to vast swathes of France. Not enough to make him beloved, but enough that it took the sting out of the hate.
Macron seems to understand that, based on his victory speech, where he talked about cooperation and dialog. It’ll be interesting to see what he does in his second term, whether he manages to do much at all. What will happen in the legislative election in two months time is very much up in the air, and depends on which parties will agree to work together. Macron’s center might hold, or the left-wing could have a majority.
Due to the two-round system being used in legislative elections too, it seems very unlikely that Le Pen’s far-right party will be large enough to get them into power. Say what you will about the French, they have demonstrated time and time again that in case of fascism, they are absolutely willing to settle for the lesser evil.
And then build barricades and occupy roundabouts to hang effigies of that lesser evil, but only after keeping the fascists out.
posted by Kattullus at 12:47 AM on April 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Kattulus,
I heard a very interesting interview the other day with Carlo Invernizzi Accetti who has developed the idea of technopopulism. I haven't read his book yet but the central thesis seems to be that in the absence of left/right power struggles over who is to hold power over whom, politics has turned into a world where to be successful you have to brew up a combination of populism and technocratic competence.
His theory is that this can produce strikingly different results:
In Italy the focus is very heavily on technocracy but even M5S has a pitch that they will be able to do a "better" job because they are populists rather than a traditional populist take which is very much on the left/right spectrum and is about who holds power.
Boris Johnson would "get Brexit done" which is simultaneously a populist goal but a technocratic statement of ability. (Really looking forward to reading how he fits that into his framework since its a bit harder to see the technocratic angle here...)
Macron is more heavily technocratic than almost any other leader but there is still something populist (almost Berlusconi like) about his incarnation of that competence in his own person - he's not saying, "let us sort it out", it's very much, "by my will alone I set my mind in motion" and that kind of Jupiterianism isn't traditional technocracy either.
I'm not sure I buy their argument but it is an interesting attempt to try and frame just what is going on.
I think another thing that is pretty compelling about Macron, as indeed it is is about Mélenchon, and yes, Le Pen and Zemmour to many people is that they do actually have an "idea of France" to work towards. That is something that to someone like me who follows Dutch, UK, and German politics is almost alien. The leading parties in each of those three countries really do seem like they are competing to be the administrators of a largely fixed national system. Macron on the surface looks a little like that but he more obviously believes in French greatness and uniqueness in a way that would be ridiculous in Mark Rutte, appears comical and non-serious in Boris Johnson, and would be frightening in a German leader. It's not so obvious with Macron as with the others because his vision for France is the closest to the status quo but I think the difference is he really feels for that status quo rather than just ploddingly managing it for his assigned term of years.
posted by atrazine at 2:00 AM on April 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
I heard a very interesting interview the other day with Carlo Invernizzi Accetti who has developed the idea of technopopulism. I haven't read his book yet but the central thesis seems to be that in the absence of left/right power struggles over who is to hold power over whom, politics has turned into a world where to be successful you have to brew up a combination of populism and technocratic competence.
His theory is that this can produce strikingly different results:
In Italy the focus is very heavily on technocracy but even M5S has a pitch that they will be able to do a "better" job because they are populists rather than a traditional populist take which is very much on the left/right spectrum and is about who holds power.
Boris Johnson would "get Brexit done" which is simultaneously a populist goal but a technocratic statement of ability. (Really looking forward to reading how he fits that into his framework since its a bit harder to see the technocratic angle here...)
Macron is more heavily technocratic than almost any other leader but there is still something populist (almost Berlusconi like) about his incarnation of that competence in his own person - he's not saying, "let us sort it out", it's very much, "by my will alone I set my mind in motion" and that kind of Jupiterianism isn't traditional technocracy either.
I'm not sure I buy their argument but it is an interesting attempt to try and frame just what is going on.
I think another thing that is pretty compelling about Macron, as indeed it is is about Mélenchon, and yes, Le Pen and Zemmour to many people is that they do actually have an "idea of France" to work towards. That is something that to someone like me who follows Dutch, UK, and German politics is almost alien. The leading parties in each of those three countries really do seem like they are competing to be the administrators of a largely fixed national system. Macron on the surface looks a little like that but he more obviously believes in French greatness and uniqueness in a way that would be ridiculous in Mark Rutte, appears comical and non-serious in Boris Johnson, and would be frightening in a German leader. It's not so obvious with Macron as with the others because his vision for France is the closest to the status quo but I think the difference is he really feels for that status quo rather than just ploddingly managing it for his assigned term of years.
posted by atrazine at 2:00 AM on April 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
That is something that to someone like me who follows Dutch, UK, and German politics is almost alien. The leading parties in each of those three countries really do seem like they are competing to be the administrators of a largely fixed national system.
Thank you, you've nicely clarified another aspect of what seems instinctively different for me participating in the process in France compared to the UK.
I know the cliché is that France only ever changes by revolution, but that committed willingness to regularly protest against, obstruct and do away with governments, parties and Republics when they're no longer deemed acceptable is itself so much more normal that it can feel like a baked-in part of the system.
posted by protorp at 3:52 AM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
Thank you, you've nicely clarified another aspect of what seems instinctively different for me participating in the process in France compared to the UK.
I know the cliché is that France only ever changes by revolution, but that committed willingness to regularly protest against, obstruct and do away with governments, parties and Republics when they're no longer deemed acceptable is itself so much more normal that it can feel like a baked-in part of the system.
posted by protorp at 3:52 AM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
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