Ukraine War Month Five, Putin is 'Entirely Too Healthy'
July 21, 2022 10:19 AM Subscribe
The last few days in Ukraine-Russia news includes Ukraine requesting modern fighter planes, the EU tightening sanctions on Russia, and Russia making plans to annex southern regions of Ukraine.
CIA director William Burns says the US won't get distracted, while MI6 chief Richard Moore says Russia is 'about to run out of steam.'
Follow live updates (AP, CNN, Al Jazeera) for more of the latest developments.
Support Ukraine Now offers real ways to help Ukraine and Ukrainians.
CIA director William Burns says the US won't get distracted, while MI6 chief Richard Moore says Russia is 'about to run out of steam.'
Follow live updates (AP, CNN, Al Jazeera) for more of the latest developments.
Support Ukraine Now offers real ways to help Ukraine and Ukrainians.
I was considering making a purchase from an Etsy seller in Ukraine before the Russians invaded, but they closed their shop temporarily the day I was going to order -- just as the war kicked off.
After a month or so I looked again, and noticed that they are located in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine...which that very day I had read was occupied by the Russians.
Well, a couple of weeks ago I got an Etsy message saying they were back in business, so I happily ordered: I would get my thing, they would get some money, all's good. Well, nothing happened for several days, and I started to wonder if I had been scammed...but I guess it's legit because UPS says I should have my item tomorrow.
So...nature is healing, I guess?
posted by wenestvedt at 10:45 AM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
After a month or so I looked again, and noticed that they are located in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine...which that very day I had read was occupied by the Russians.
Well, a couple of weeks ago I got an Etsy message saying they were back in business, so I happily ordered: I would get my thing, they would get some money, all's good. Well, nothing happened for several days, and I started to wonder if I had been scammed...but I guess it's legit because UPS says I should have my item tomorrow.
So...nature is healing, I guess?
posted by wenestvedt at 10:45 AM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
The war remains absolutely brutal in terms of human lives lost and disrupted, the global economy rocked, and the deportation and mass murder of civilians.
There's a very good chance Russia has been fought to a standstill, and that we won't see any more massive attacks. Unfortunately they still hold significant territory, and are increasing the rate they kidnap Ukrainian citizens to Russia. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they attempt to pull every single Ukrainian from land they are illegally occupying.
Iran is potentially selling drones to Russia.
The USA supplied HIMARS and other advanced weapon systems seem to be distinctly helpful in setting back Russian offensive capabilities, which Russia generally counteracts by committing more war crimes.
In the tradition of snake island defiance, Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops off the island and liberated a cat.
posted by Jacen at 10:47 AM on July 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
There's a very good chance Russia has been fought to a standstill, and that we won't see any more massive attacks. Unfortunately they still hold significant territory, and are increasing the rate they kidnap Ukrainian citizens to Russia. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they attempt to pull every single Ukrainian from land they are illegally occupying.
Iran is potentially selling drones to Russia.
The USA supplied HIMARS and other advanced weapon systems seem to be distinctly helpful in setting back Russian offensive capabilities, which Russia generally counteracts by committing more war crimes.
In the tradition of snake island defiance, Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops off the island and liberated a cat.
posted by Jacen at 10:47 AM on July 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
It's inching towards 100 here and I'm wondering if Zelensky and his writers room of insanely competent and driven generals are playing the long game towards the coming winter. The discussions of poor russian logistics could make that wait period very effective for the UA if they can shut down the Donbas region and return to original borders.
posted by sammyo at 11:26 AM on July 21, 2022
posted by sammyo at 11:26 AM on July 21, 2022
It's inching towards 100 here and I'm wondering if Zelensky and his writers room of insanely competent and driven generals are playing the long game towards the coming winter. The discussions of poor russian logistics could make that wait period very effective for the UA if they can shut down the Donbas region and return to original borders.
The main thing for UA is not letting temporary borders become semi-permanent ones through the freezing of conflict. The Western political sphere will not tolerate any sort of active move towards war, no matter how valid its aims and objectives, over bad peace.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:46 AM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
The main thing for UA is not letting temporary borders become semi-permanent ones through the freezing of conflict. The Western political sphere will not tolerate any sort of active move towards war, no matter how valid its aims and objectives, over bad peace.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:46 AM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Zelensky and his writers room of insanely competent and driven generals
Where are you getting information about insanely competent and driven generals? Generally curious, I've not seen much discussion of who does what in the war council.
posted by chaz at 11:53 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Where are you getting information about insanely competent and driven generals? Generally curious, I've not seen much discussion of who does what in the war council.
posted by chaz at 11:53 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
I collect wristwatches and have been purchasing old Soviet watches from Ukraine since the war began. Despite often coming from places under attack the Ukrainian sellers never missed a beat and my packages always arrived. I guess I never really cared one way or the other if they did or not. I would not hesitate in the slightest to order anything from Ukraine.
posted by drstrangelove at 11:59 AM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by drstrangelove at 11:59 AM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Everyone needs a Raketa Big Zero from Ukraine.
posted by Keith Talent at 12:16 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Keith Talent at 12:16 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
What we are witnessing right now is the start of a text book modern US style military operation. Phase 1 dig in and gear up; conduct fighting retreats to learn your enemy. Phase 2 identify enemy command and control centers, logistics hubs and where they rest their soldiers when they rotate them off the line. Phase 3 (where we are now): Use precision guided weapons to demolish those key areas. Phase 4: Having destroyed your enemy's ability to command, supply and recover after attacks you launch a large scale overwhelming offensive that is designed to steamroll your opponent and trigger their collapse.
So now that we are in phase 3 we get to wait and see what phase 4 brings. It might be a rapid victory for Ukraine, or at least enough of a victory to show that Ukraine can ultimately prevail. It is also possible though that they will hit a wall of Russian defenders and be unable to make progress. In that case the war might settle into a long stalemate with a de-facto partition of Ukraine along the line of contact.
posted by interogative mood at 12:48 PM on July 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
So now that we are in phase 3 we get to wait and see what phase 4 brings. It might be a rapid victory for Ukraine, or at least enough of a victory to show that Ukraine can ultimately prevail. It is also possible though that they will hit a wall of Russian defenders and be unable to make progress. In that case the war might settle into a long stalemate with a de-facto partition of Ukraine along the line of contact.
posted by interogative mood at 12:48 PM on July 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
I'm expecting a pretty brutal siege of Crimea.
posted by ryanrs at 12:54 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 12:54 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
"Phase 1 dig in and gear up; conduct fighting retreats to learn your enemy. Phase 2 identify enemy command and control centers, logistics hubs and where they rest their soldiers when they rotate them off the line. Phase 3 (where we are now): Use precision guided weapons to demolish those key areas. Phase 4: Having destroyed your enemy's ability to command, supply and recover after attacks you launch a large scale overwhelming offensive that is designed to steamroll your opponent and trigger their collapse"
citation needed.
posted by youthenrage at 12:57 PM on July 21, 2022 [15 favorites]
citation needed.
posted by youthenrage at 12:57 PM on July 21, 2022 [15 favorites]
Roshen chocolate is good, too
I was very disappointed when Canada agreed to return the Nord Stream 1 pump station gas turbines to Germany for onward shipment to Russia. They'd been under repair in Siemens' plant in Montreal. Yes, yes, Europe freezes in the dark, we heard that, it's more complicated than that --- heard that too --- but if you think that gas supply through that pipeline will be at anything other than V. Putin, Esq.'s pleasure for the next few years, you're the naive one. While Germany depends on Russian gas, they can not be an effective ally.
posted by scruss at 12:58 PM on July 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
I was very disappointed when Canada agreed to return the Nord Stream 1 pump station gas turbines to Germany for onward shipment to Russia. They'd been under repair in Siemens' plant in Montreal. Yes, yes, Europe freezes in the dark, we heard that, it's more complicated than that --- heard that too --- but if you think that gas supply through that pipeline will be at anything other than V. Putin, Esq.'s pleasure for the next few years, you're the naive one. While Germany depends on Russian gas, they can not be an effective ally.
posted by scruss at 12:58 PM on July 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
@youtheneafe For an example of this style of war see the first US gulf war in 1991. The US spent 6 months skirmishing with Iraqis and building up a huge army, then they used precision weapons and even conventional weapons to wreck Iraqi command, control, logistics, etc in a 30 day air campaign. Finally they launched the ground attack, rapidly overrunning the Iraqi army and its defensive positions in 48 hours.
posted by interogative mood at 1:22 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 1:22 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Apologies for the snark but if it's a textbook example than that example should be in one of the US Military's textbooks right? It's not clear whether this is historically how conflicts have shaken out or if it's a planned and purposeful strategy.
posted by VTX at 2:09 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by VTX at 2:09 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure Ukraine has the equipment to do that, and what is being sent is minuscule. It's going to help, but unless every piece is deployed brilliantly, it's not going to overwhelm Russia.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:23 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:23 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine's not going to overrun anyone in 48 hours, they're way too outnumbered for that. But they might be doing some counterpunching soon. The last couple of days have seen strikes on the Antonovskiy Bridge that may have left it unsuitable for heavy equipment. That's the only road bridge connecting Russian-occupied Kherson (on the east side of the Dnipro) to the Russian-occupied territory on the west side. It's the sort of thing you'd expect to precede a Ukranian assault on Kherson.
posted by echo target at 3:02 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by echo target at 3:02 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
It is unlikely they will overrun the whole of the Russian occupied areas in a 48 hour push, at least not as a first move. The attack will focus on one area, probably Kherson and the areas north of the Dnipro River. In the last couple of days they’ve hit the main bridge and damaged to where it is no longer useable for heavy vehicles. The Ukrainians have been Making a lot of raids and taking villages around there as well; but we’ve yet to see a full scale attack.
posted by interogative mood at 3:28 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 3:28 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's inching towards 100 here and I'm wondering if Zelensky and his writers room of insanely competent and driven generals are playing the long game towards the coming winter
By then, Russia will have run its sham referenda, and “annexed” the territory, placing it under its nuclear umbrella (where Crimea currently is). Then Ukraine won't get it back by military force alone, as if Russia can't hold it with conventional weapons, its military doctrine obliges it to escalate to whatever it has at its disposal. Preventing things from getting there is of the utmost importance to Ukraine, which precludes waiting for General Winter to come to the rescue.
posted by acb at 3:52 PM on July 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
By then, Russia will have run its sham referenda, and “annexed” the territory, placing it under its nuclear umbrella (where Crimea currently is). Then Ukraine won't get it back by military force alone, as if Russia can't hold it with conventional weapons, its military doctrine obliges it to escalate to whatever it has at its disposal. Preventing things from getting there is of the utmost importance to Ukraine, which precludes waiting for General Winter to come to the rescue.
posted by acb at 3:52 PM on July 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
This conflict remains important and I'm glad to see a new thread for news and information. The speculative postings about military and political status and future are just that: speculative.
A friend of a friend has been writing a blog about her experiences as a Ukrainian who has had to flee the fighting, but not the country. It is a personal perspective on this war and the importance of continuing to pay attention.
posted by meinvt at 4:02 PM on July 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
A friend of a friend has been writing a blog about her experiences as a Ukrainian who has had to flee the fighting, but not the country. It is a personal perspective on this war and the importance of continuing to pay attention.
posted by meinvt at 4:02 PM on July 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
Ukraine's not going to overrun anyone in 48 hours, they're way too outnumbered for that.
UA probably outnumbers Russia in the field in terms of manpower. They just don't consider their manpower expendable and can't easily win artillery duels. Which is why HIMARS and M270s are so important to get to the front ASAP.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:08 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
UA probably outnumbers Russia in the field in terms of manpower. They just don't consider their manpower expendable and can't easily win artillery duels. Which is why HIMARS and M270s are so important to get to the front ASAP.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:08 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
'Into the mouth of a bear': Ukrainian refugees are being sent to Russia, their passports confiscated
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/ukrainian-refugees-being-sent-russia-passports-confiscated/101256418
Awful stuff, but a note of hope in this article is the network of Russian volunteers helping get people back out.
posted by freethefeet at 5:56 PM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/ukrainian-refugees-being-sent-russia-passports-confiscated/101256418
Awful stuff, but a note of hope in this article is the network of Russian volunteers helping get people back out.
posted by freethefeet at 5:56 PM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Over at DK, kos has been writing a lot of posts about the war, particularly artillery, and MLRS - aka the M270 and HIMARS. His writings are notable because he was a M270 crewman while in the military, so he has a much better understanding of these systems than most. He says the issue isn’t getting launchers to Ukraine - it’s the ammo. The GMLRS rockets that HIMARS fires are costly, and only 50,000 have ever been made. Many of those are in the hands of other nations’ militaries. Then there’s the simple matter of logistics, of moving the rockets around to where they can be quickly loaded on the battlefield. The M270 rockets are in better supply but the logistics issues are still the same. Also, these launchers require a ton of upkeep. One thing that sending HIMARS has done is allow Ukraine to fire short range ballistic missiles, which they’ve had, but that they had to conserve. So right now there’s four HIMARS systems roaming Ukraine that are able to hit Russian targets well behind the front lines, M777 howitzers that are pretty accurate, M270s, and short range ballistic missiles. Each one of those has its own uses. The HIMARS and ballistic missiles are being used on high value targets. More HIMARS systems are on the way but they’re having to carefully manage ammo for them. Ukraine wants longer range ATACMS missiles to fire from HIMARS launchers (they have something like 6 times the range of the GMLRS missiles) but the US wants to be damn sure Ukraine doesn’t use them to fire deep within Russia. Kos says the other issue with ATACMS is that they’re vulnerable to Russian anti-air defenses because they’re aloft for six minutes. His posts are worth the read. (Mark Hertling on Twitter, a former very high ranking US Army commander, says that Kos knows what he’s talking about.)
posted by azpenguin at 8:49 PM on July 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 8:49 PM on July 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
...their collapse"
citation needed.
Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States, and JP 3-0, Joint Operations.
"The three levels of warfare—strategic, operational, and tactical—link tactical actions to achievement of national objectives. There are no finite limits or boundaries between these levels, but they help commanders design and synchronize operations, allocate resources, and assign tasks to the appropriate command. The strategic, operational, or tactical purpose of employment depends on the nature of the objective, mission, or task.....For example, intelligence and communications satellites, previously considered principally strategic assets, are also significant resources for tactical operations. Likewise, tactical actions can cause both intended and unintended strategic consequences, particularly in today’s environment of pervasive and immediate global communications and networked threats.,"
the aforementioned comment is a strategy of tactics rather than a strategy overall. it's difficult to apply US military doctrine to what's going on because it's supported on one fact which is actually been alluded to later down in the thread and that is overwhelming force.
posted by clavdivs at 9:39 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
citation needed.
Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States, and JP 3-0, Joint Operations.
"The three levels of warfare—strategic, operational, and tactical—link tactical actions to achievement of national objectives. There are no finite limits or boundaries between these levels, but they help commanders design and synchronize operations, allocate resources, and assign tasks to the appropriate command. The strategic, operational, or tactical purpose of employment depends on the nature of the objective, mission, or task.....For example, intelligence and communications satellites, previously considered principally strategic assets, are also significant resources for tactical operations. Likewise, tactical actions can cause both intended and unintended strategic consequences, particularly in today’s environment of pervasive and immediate global communications and networked threats.,"
the aforementioned comment is a strategy of tactics rather than a strategy overall. it's difficult to apply US military doctrine to what's going on because it's supported on one fact which is actually been alluded to later down in the thread and that is overwhelming force.
posted by clavdivs at 9:39 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
A couple of resources that I've found interesting and generally well-sourced:
- War on the Rocks podcasts with Michael Kofman, a Russia analyst with a US military think tank
- Perun's youtube channel, an Australian with expertise on military procurement making really long-form videos
Even early on, a few weeks in when it became clear that Kyiv was not about to fall, military analysts started talking about late summer (Aug-Sept) as a key point for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive. The reasoning is simply that there are many factors pushing Ukraine to become stronger over time as long as Western support holds up (gradual arrival of NATO weapons, time spent recruiting and training new forces) and Russia to become weaker (sanctions taking time to bite, combat units becoming exhausted, difficulty replacing advanced weapons), and late summer is approximately when those trends start to cross and the window of opportunity opens.
That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen or be successful. Despite the very successful propaganda war highlighting Russian losses, Ukraine has also taken losses. It's hard to fight a brutal war for 6+ months and then double down and go on the offensive. But asking a bunch of exhausted, demoralized, under-supplied Russian units to hold the line and retreat in good order is also a big risk.
How do you say Tet Offensive in Russian?
posted by allegedly at 10:06 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
- War on the Rocks podcasts with Michael Kofman, a Russia analyst with a US military think tank
- Perun's youtube channel, an Australian with expertise on military procurement making really long-form videos
Even early on, a few weeks in when it became clear that Kyiv was not about to fall, military analysts started talking about late summer (Aug-Sept) as a key point for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive. The reasoning is simply that there are many factors pushing Ukraine to become stronger over time as long as Western support holds up (gradual arrival of NATO weapons, time spent recruiting and training new forces) and Russia to become weaker (sanctions taking time to bite, combat units becoming exhausted, difficulty replacing advanced weapons), and late summer is approximately when those trends start to cross and the window of opportunity opens.
That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen or be successful. Despite the very successful propaganda war highlighting Russian losses, Ukraine has also taken losses. It's hard to fight a brutal war for 6+ months and then double down and go on the offensive. But asking a bunch of exhausted, demoralized, under-supplied Russian units to hold the line and retreat in good order is also a big risk.
How do you say Tet Offensive in Russian?
posted by allegedly at 10:06 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
The HIMARS and ballistic missiles are being used on high value targets.
Apparently this bridge, each of 12 those holes was a caused by a $300,000 himars missile, so 3 million to not even take out the bridge.
posted by Iax at 12:02 AM on July 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Apparently this bridge, each of 12 those holes was a caused by a $300,000 himars missile, so 3 million to not even take out the bridge.
posted by Iax at 12:02 AM on July 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Kira Rudnik, leader of one of the rival parties in Ukraine, has just come back from a visit to the US. She highlights that while weaponry is an issue (apparently they want 60 HIMARS, so far 20 were delivered), Ukraine is also in dire need of money, with government expenses at about 5 billion USD per month to wage war, support internal refugees and provide a normal level of services to the country. Most moneyary aid comes as loans that may weigh down Ukrainian economy for ages. Apparently the US is dragging its feet on confiscating frozen Russian assets the way Canada did, so that's a good point for Americans to bring up to their congresspersons.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:34 AM on July 22, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:34 AM on July 22, 2022 [12 favorites]
Here's a Twitter thread from Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army Major General, on the likelihood of increasing counter attacks, possibly culminating in a general counter offensive, in the south of Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 3:20 AM on July 22, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 3:20 AM on July 22, 2022
Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army Major General, on the likelihood of increasing counter attacks, possibly culminating in a general counter offensive, in the south of Ukraine
All the things in that thread are so generic, they are like a football coach saying: "we are going to practice, we are going to watch game tape, we are going to play offense and defense". Or a mom with 5 kids intricately explaining her day.
They are going to stockpile weapons? Really? Well good for them. They are going target Russian air defenses with long-range weapons? Tell us more! The actual fighting part is going to be hard? So all that effort spent up front demoralizing isn't going to amount to much? No way!
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:29 AM on July 22, 2022
All the things in that thread are so generic, they are like a football coach saying: "we are going to practice, we are going to watch game tape, we are going to play offense and defense". Or a mom with 5 kids intricately explaining her day.
They are going to stockpile weapons? Really? Well good for them. They are going target Russian air defenses with long-range weapons? Tell us more! The actual fighting part is going to be hard? So all that effort spent up front demoralizing isn't going to amount to much? No way!
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:29 AM on July 22, 2022
@ThreshedThought: "Time for a little update thread on Ukraine. We are at a very interesting point."
More on Kherson.
posted by mazola at 8:49 AM on July 22, 2022
More on Kherson.
posted by mazola at 8:49 AM on July 22, 2022
The bridge span no longer able to carry significant loads beyond light vehicle and foot traffic. Concrete and steel work together as a system and when you pulverize the concrete with high explosives and break the steel rebar the structure is no longer sound. To repair the bridge they are probably going to have to cut out the whole damaged span and replace it and that’s just for the damage we see. It looks like there may be some additional damage below the bridge based on what we can see when the video looks down the hole, but it is unclear.
posted by interogative mood at 9:20 AM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:20 AM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Technically Ukraine and Russia didn't sign a grain deal between the two of them; they signed separate deals with Turkey as the middleman. It's still a leap forward in unblocking Ukrainian grain (and apparently Russian fertilizers), contributing to limiting the impact of the war on the poorest people in the world.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:12 PM on July 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:12 PM on July 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
Apparently this bridge, each of 12 those holes was a caused by a $300,000 himars missile, so 3 million to not even take out the bridge.
To be sure, and maybe this is an indication of needed weaponry, but maybe HIMARS just isn't the right tool for taking out bridges if holes are its chief strength. Interogative mood brings up a good point though, so this couch general is just spitballing.
posted by rhizome at 2:18 PM on July 22, 2022
To be sure, and maybe this is an indication of needed weaponry, but maybe HIMARS just isn't the right tool for taking out bridges if holes are its chief strength. Interogative mood brings up a good point though, so this couch general is just spitballing.
posted by rhizome at 2:18 PM on July 22, 2022
The HIMARS had the range, accuracy, and availability, so even if the destruction was possibly less than intended, it still definitely got the job done. And that's priceless
posted by Jacen at 3:24 PM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 3:24 PM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
It seems to me that the limited damage to the bridge is intentional. Just enough that it can't be used for heavy logistics.
Always leave your enemy a route of escape.
posted by porpoise at 7:19 PM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Always leave your enemy a route of escape.
posted by porpoise at 7:19 PM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
So the Black Sea Grain Agreement lasted all of 24 hours before Putin launched missiles at Odesa.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:18 AM on July 23, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:18 AM on July 23, 2022 [8 favorites]
I suppose that's the nail in the coffin for a negotiated settlement to this conflict. Guess Putin really is all-in.
It's a bold move Cotton, let's see how it works out for them.
posted by some loser at 6:47 AM on July 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's a bold move Cotton, let's see how it works out for them.
posted by some loser at 6:47 AM on July 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
rhizome: but maybe HIMARS just isn't the right tool for taking out bridges
Depends a lot on the type of bridge and the materials it's built with.
Stone or concrete arch bridges, and concrete beam bridges? Varies between hard and extremely hard, unless you happen to have a Tallboy, Grand Slam or similar at hand, and manage to hit right next to a pier the way Barnes Wallis prescribed. Every lengthwise undamaged strip of the deck still supports itself, so putting holes in it only fully takes the bridge out if you manage to do so over (nearly) the entire width. Each such lengthwise undamaged strip will have limited load capability though.
Truss and suspension bridges? Comparatively easy; Hit one of the main beams, or with a suspension or cable stayed bridge one of the main cables, its attachment points, or the tower, and the bridge will be as good as gone.
This one is a concrete beam bridge, and while the effect of putting holes in it appears limited, the reduced load-bearing capacity will likely be sufficient to consider the damage being effective.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:25 AM on July 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
Depends a lot on the type of bridge and the materials it's built with.
Stone or concrete arch bridges, and concrete beam bridges? Varies between hard and extremely hard, unless you happen to have a Tallboy, Grand Slam or similar at hand, and manage to hit right next to a pier the way Barnes Wallis prescribed. Every lengthwise undamaged strip of the deck still supports itself, so putting holes in it only fully takes the bridge out if you manage to do so over (nearly) the entire width. Each such lengthwise undamaged strip will have limited load capability though.
Truss and suspension bridges? Comparatively easy; Hit one of the main beams, or with a suspension or cable stayed bridge one of the main cables, its attachment points, or the tower, and the bridge will be as good as gone.
This one is a concrete beam bridge, and while the effect of putting holes in it appears limited, the reduced load-bearing capacity will likely be sufficient to consider the damage being effective.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:25 AM on July 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
German air defense system Iris-T SLM, promised by Olaf Scholz at the beginning of June to be delivered to Ukraine 'within weeks', are reportedly being delayed by Olaf Scholz until the end of the year.
posted by UN at 2:14 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 2:14 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’m really wondering what Germany is doing - are they thinking Russia will win and don’t want to antagonize the eventual perceived victor? Or is this all about preserving their gas supply?
posted by corb at 3:15 PM on July 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by corb at 3:15 PM on July 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
Interesting stuff going on north of Kherson. It's a point where the map is starting to tell a story of what might be coming. If you look at google earth, you'll see that there are two main (which is to say, paved) roads going from Novy Khakovka north to the front. The whole area looks like farmland, so I don't doubt there are other routes, but those will be along dirt roads used for farming; way more difficult that just driving along a road.
One of those main roads goes north along the Dnipro until it cuts over to Vysokopillya, and if I can believe the map on yesterday's ISW report, the Ukrainians have pushed the front right up to that road, from the Dnipro to Vysokopillya, so good luck driving supplies in that way.
The other main road goes to Davydiv Brid, and the Ukrainians seem to be expanding a new bridgehead a few miles south of there, which definitely threatens that road. If they can cut that road, the entire Russian position from Davydiv Brid north is not quite encircled, but suddenly their supplies have to come across dirt roads and farmland.
I'm not any kind of analyst, but... it reminds me of the situation north of Kyiv a few days before the Russian withdrawal. Does anyone else see that?
posted by surlyben at 3:26 PM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
One of those main roads goes north along the Dnipro until it cuts over to Vysokopillya, and if I can believe the map on yesterday's ISW report, the Ukrainians have pushed the front right up to that road, from the Dnipro to Vysokopillya, so good luck driving supplies in that way.
The other main road goes to Davydiv Brid, and the Ukrainians seem to be expanding a new bridgehead a few miles south of there, which definitely threatens that road. If they can cut that road, the entire Russian position from Davydiv Brid north is not quite encircled, but suddenly their supplies have to come across dirt roads and farmland.
I'm not any kind of analyst, but... it reminds me of the situation north of Kyiv a few days before the Russian withdrawal. Does anyone else see that?
posted by surlyben at 3:26 PM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
In their updated on Saturday ISW says the Kherson offensive has likely started. There have also been reports (not confirmed by ISW) that a large number of 1000-2000 Russian solders are currently trapped around Vysokopillya.
posted by interogative mood at 6:04 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:04 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’m really wondering what Germany is doing - are they thinking Russia will win and don’t want to antagonize the eventual perceived victor? Or is this all about preserving their gas supply?
It may be that the German military is more dysfunctional than the Russian one. Not in the same way as the Russians; the Bundeswehr is dysfunctional in its own particular German way.
Perun: Germany, rearmament, and Ukraine - Why 100 billion Euro may not fix the German military
posted by ryanrs at 6:08 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
It may be that the German military is more dysfunctional than the Russian one. Not in the same way as the Russians; the Bundeswehr is dysfunctional in its own particular German way.
Perun: Germany, rearmament, and Ukraine - Why 100 billion Euro may not fix the German military
posted by ryanrs at 6:08 PM on July 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’m really wondering what Germany is doing - are they thinking Russia will win and don’t want to antagonize the eventual perceived victor? Or is this all about preserving their gas supply?
My impression is that most of German leadership would have been much much happier if the decapitation attack had worked and they could go on with their existing dependence on Russia. They could even lobby for removing what sanctions remained from 2014, since the new puppet Ukrainian government would no doubt sign over the occupied territories or sign a union treaty. I mean, they outright told both the ambassador and the Ukrainian foreign minister that there wasn't any point in sending aid, because Russia would be in control by the time it could arrive and Germany would be negotiating with them instead.
So they are intensely resentful they have to do anything and that their industry is at risk at all, and thus have dragged their feet all the way.
posted by tavella at 7:00 PM on July 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
My impression is that most of German leadership would have been much much happier if the decapitation attack had worked and they could go on with their existing dependence on Russia. They could even lobby for removing what sanctions remained from 2014, since the new puppet Ukrainian government would no doubt sign over the occupied territories or sign a union treaty. I mean, they outright told both the ambassador and the Ukrainian foreign minister that there wasn't any point in sending aid, because Russia would be in control by the time it could arrive and Germany would be negotiating with them instead.
So they are intensely resentful they have to do anything and that their industry is at risk at all, and thus have dragged their feet all the way.
posted by tavella at 7:00 PM on July 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
News from the class war front are very grim for ordinary Ukrainian people: Ukraine uses Russian invasion to pass laws wrecking workers’ rights (Open Democracy)
In two laws passed on Monday and Tuesday, MPs voted to legalise zero-hours contracts and made moves towards removing up to 70% of the country’s workforce from protections guaranteed by national labour law.posted by kmt at 11:33 PM on July 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
The latter measure means the national labour code no longer applies to employees of small- and medium-sized enterprises; instead, it is proposed that each worker strikes an individual labour agreement with their employer. It also removes the legal authority of trade unions to veto workplace dismissals.
I feel bad saying this but I wonder if it would better for Ukraine to concede lost territory and seek remuneration from Russia. I have a feeling that Russia can better weather a protracted war through manpower and by continuing to sell oil to whomever will buy oil and the US fighting essentially what feels like a proxy war seems to historically breed corruption and not good for the country caught in the middle. We could even sign a NATO like defense treaty with just the US and Ukraine, put troops and bases there to prevent further aggression. Frankly this feels like a win for Ukraine and Europe, and really Russia comes off worse than it did before.
I really admire Ukraine's resolve but given how quickly Donbas fell and its historic ties to Russia I question how much is propaganda and if the region really strongly identifies as Ukraine. Frankly propaganda on both sides is high and I've become a bit disillusioned as to what's true. For example in the beginning of the war, drones were supposed to change how artillery warfare worked and now we're back to sending incredibly expensive and complex military equipment. Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
Look I think Putin's horrible and it was an affront to international law to invade Ukraine, but I don't think the West's goals are entirely altruistic either.
posted by geoff. at 6:43 AM on July 24, 2022
I really admire Ukraine's resolve but given how quickly Donbas fell and its historic ties to Russia I question how much is propaganda and if the region really strongly identifies as Ukraine. Frankly propaganda on both sides is high and I've become a bit disillusioned as to what's true. For example in the beginning of the war, drones were supposed to change how artillery warfare worked and now we're back to sending incredibly expensive and complex military equipment. Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
Look I think Putin's horrible and it was an affront to international law to invade Ukraine, but I don't think the West's goals are entirely altruistic either.
posted by geoff. at 6:43 AM on July 24, 2022
I feel like you are watching a different war.
posted by ryanrs at 7:17 AM on July 24, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 7:17 AM on July 24, 2022 [18 favorites]
The problem there is that anything you concede to Putin is just encouragement for him to keep going. And this is an entirely different proxy war than what has come before. It's all out in the open and the reasons the US is sending supplies but not troops are different and publically stated.
But, again, the root issue is that Putin will not stop until he is stopped. The more that gets put off the harder it will be.
posted by VTX at 8:06 AM on July 24, 2022 [23 favorites]
But, again, the root issue is that Putin will not stop until he is stopped. The more that gets put off the harder it will be.
posted by VTX at 8:06 AM on July 24, 2022 [23 favorites]
...I wonder if it would better for Ukraine to concede lost territory and seek remuneration from Russia.
There are two important points to consider,
1. Unless you are devoting (_even if_ you are devoting) tremendous amounts of time and energy tracking how each army is doing, it is well-nigh impossible even to simply understand where each side stands - how worn-down or not, how close to defeat or not each army is. Is Russia running out of tanks? Are the new Howitzers changing the balance? Without study beyond what is accessible in the open media, it is not knowable.
2. Russia will never, ever pay penny one to Ukraine. Some money might be given out from what has been impounded/seized but until Ukraine has more to offer than Russia (in terms of natural resources - or any other resources and that will be never) They will never have the upper hand in any deal. (That said, see point 1: it could be that Ukraines 'western' gas fields have the potential to produce enough to sway opinion, or something else arises to change that math.)
3. War is a nightmare and unfortunately Putin has decided to embrace that. The west can't afford to let his aggression slide for the same reason you don't poop in your kitchen - it is way, way too disruptive in all kinds of ways. Putin brings chaos and instability and that is, to put it mildly, undesirable.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:10 AM on July 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
There are two important points to consider,
1. Unless you are devoting (_even if_ you are devoting) tremendous amounts of time and energy tracking how each army is doing, it is well-nigh impossible even to simply understand where each side stands - how worn-down or not, how close to defeat or not each army is. Is Russia running out of tanks? Are the new Howitzers changing the balance? Without study beyond what is accessible in the open media, it is not knowable.
2. Russia will never, ever pay penny one to Ukraine. Some money might be given out from what has been impounded/seized but until Ukraine has more to offer than Russia (in terms of natural resources - or any other resources and that will be never) They will never have the upper hand in any deal. (That said, see point 1: it could be that Ukraines 'western' gas fields have the potential to produce enough to sway opinion, or something else arises to change that math.)
3. War is a nightmare and unfortunately Putin has decided to embrace that. The west can't afford to let his aggression slide for the same reason you don't poop in your kitchen - it is way, way too disruptive in all kinds of ways. Putin brings chaos and instability and that is, to put it mildly, undesirable.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:10 AM on July 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
Russia has broken every agreement they’ve made in this conflict. Just this week they agreed to allow grain exports from Odessa and safe passage: then they bombed those port facilities the next day. Even if Ukraine were inclined to cede some territory for peace; they can’t reasonably expect Russia to live up to the agreement.
posted by interogative mood at 9:13 AM on July 24, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:13 AM on July 24, 2022 [22 favorites]
So, what you're suggesting is peace, in our time?
posted by acb at 9:18 AM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:18 AM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Google translated from a breaking news section of German Spiegel Magazine's app:
"Contrary to previous statements, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia wants to overthrow the Ukrainian government. "We are definitely helping the Ukrainian people to liberate themselves from the regime that is absolutely hostile to the people and history," Lavrov said in Cairo on Sunday. The Russian and Ukrainian people would henceforth live together."
posted by Hairy Lobster at 10:45 AM on July 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
"Contrary to previous statements, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia wants to overthrow the Ukrainian government. "We are definitely helping the Ukrainian people to liberate themselves from the regime that is absolutely hostile to the people and history," Lavrov said in Cairo on Sunday. The Russian and Ukrainian people would henceforth live together."
posted by Hairy Lobster at 10:45 AM on July 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
So, what you're suggesting is peace, in our time?
it won't happen that way - if ukraine gave up any territory, there are people who would continue the war as insurgents - the russians will never be rid of resistance - and the real danger is that said resistance will spill over into russia itself
posted by pyramid termite at 12:42 PM on July 24, 2022
it won't happen that way - if ukraine gave up any territory, there are people who would continue the war as insurgents - the russians will never be rid of resistance - and the real danger is that said resistance will spill over into russia itself
posted by pyramid termite at 12:42 PM on July 24, 2022
Following Lithuania, Poles crowdfund Bayraktar drone for Ukraine.
If you had asked me what I thought of drone warfare a few years ago ... I probably would not have answered "support your neighbor's military industrial complex!". But here we are.
posted by UN at 1:11 PM on July 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
If you had asked me what I thought of drone warfare a few years ago ... I probably would not have answered "support your neighbor's military industrial complex!". But here we are.
posted by UN at 1:11 PM on July 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
Look I think Putin's horrible and it was an affront to international law to invade Ukraine, but I don't think the West's goals are entirely altruistic either.
What goals? Not having a World War break out if Russia, increasingly emboldened after flattening and annexing Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, turns its eyes towards the Baltic and closing the Suwałki Gap? A United States tied up in Europe and its response to any aggression in the South China Sea dulled. China seizing the moment and striking causing global catastrophe as half of the world's advanced semiconductor output is vaporized into thin fucking air and the West basically has to reestablish the supply chain of just about every item available in the world to take China out of it?
Of course the West has an agenda. Not going to war unless they can't help it. That's why they keep pushing for bad peace over and over and over.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:23 PM on July 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
What goals? Not having a World War break out if Russia, increasingly emboldened after flattening and annexing Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, turns its eyes towards the Baltic and closing the Suwałki Gap? A United States tied up in Europe and its response to any aggression in the South China Sea dulled. China seizing the moment and striking causing global catastrophe as half of the world's advanced semiconductor output is vaporized into thin fucking air and the West basically has to reestablish the supply chain of just about every item available in the world to take China out of it?
Of course the West has an agenda. Not going to war unless they can't help it. That's why they keep pushing for bad peace over and over and over.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:23 PM on July 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
Like I get that neoliberalism sucks but we really don't have to torture whatever ideas we have about motives trying to both sides it against literal fascists.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:27 PM on July 24, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:27 PM on July 24, 2022 [17 favorites]
I feel bad saying this but I wonder if it would better for Ukraine to concede lost territory
Like maybe officially just give Putin Crimea? </sarcasm>
I recall one Putin quote that seemed to come from reasonably reliable sources, "Russia is where ever there are russian speakers" so ... got a cute russian store down the street from you? (sorry more sarcasm but it's pretty clear that if Ukraine falls there is a lot of Eastern Europe that at least the reactionary elements feel rightfully belongs to USSR.2.0)
Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
The number two superpower in the world is stuck at the borders of the Donbas, which it basically has had for almost a decade. There are some reports that the amount of russian shelling is significantly reduced. That a significant percentage of the troops in the initial invasion are non-functional, as in well over half or more and just holding ground until the next surge. Like other pointed out real info is quite hard but just prior to the invasion there were many images of vast quantities just over the border doing "practice maneuvers". The same satellites would be picking up images on that same border now, does not seem to be happening.
As for questioning the motives of the west (US) that is harder, are officials quietly pleased that this drags on for as long as possible - depleting both direct players? Probably. Could slow reductions in quality of life cause regime change and the possibility of nuke reductions for sanctions, that would be sweet?
posted by sammyo at 6:37 PM on July 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
Like maybe officially just give Putin Crimea? </sarcasm>
I recall one Putin quote that seemed to come from reasonably reliable sources, "Russia is where ever there are russian speakers" so ... got a cute russian store down the street from you? (sorry more sarcasm but it's pretty clear that if Ukraine falls there is a lot of Eastern Europe that at least the reactionary elements feel rightfully belongs to USSR.2.0)
Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
The number two superpower in the world is stuck at the borders of the Donbas, which it basically has had for almost a decade. There are some reports that the amount of russian shelling is significantly reduced. That a significant percentage of the troops in the initial invasion are non-functional, as in well over half or more and just holding ground until the next surge. Like other pointed out real info is quite hard but just prior to the invasion there were many images of vast quantities just over the border doing "practice maneuvers". The same satellites would be picking up images on that same border now, does not seem to be happening.
As for questioning the motives of the west (US) that is harder, are officials quietly pleased that this drags on for as long as possible - depleting both direct players? Probably. Could slow reductions in quality of life cause regime change and the possibility of nuke reductions for sanctions, that would be sweet?
posted by sammyo at 6:37 PM on July 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
Apparently, Russia is pondering if it should "reclaim Alaska." So sammyo's "cute Russian store down the street" isn't that far-fetched.
posted by SPrintF at 8:17 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 8:17 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
lmao russia couldn't even take alaska from the civilians
posted by ryanrs at 9:10 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:10 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
I can assure you that nobody I know in Alaska takes the prospect of Russia "reclaiming" us seriously and we interpret comments mentioning it as trolling from certain Russians.
The idea of forcible re-annexation is obviously laughable in Alaska. It's presumably far less so in some other places, e.g. Moldova.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:28 PM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
The idea of forcible re-annexation is obviously laughable in Alaska. It's presumably far less so in some other places, e.g. Moldova.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:28 PM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Interesting Twitter thread (threadreader) from Timothy Snyder speculating about Putin's potential weakness.
Putin is clearly afraid that a general mobilization would undo his popularity and bring down his regime. In this sense he is weak.posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:29 AM on July 25, 2022 [12 favorites]
The Russian state looks fascist at the top, but it lacks the fascist capacity for total war. It has governed thus far by the demobilization of its population, not its mobilization.
The old communist joke went "we pretend to work and you pretend to pay us." In Russia today the reality is something more like "you pretend to win a war and we pretend to show enthusiasm."
A thought that occurred to me recently: when Putin goes, his replacement will probably be chosen by the Chinese politburo. What's left of Russia may eventually be run by the CCP at arm's length, a little like Hong Kong.
posted by acb at 4:11 AM on July 25, 2022
posted by acb at 4:11 AM on July 25, 2022
geoff.: For example in the beginning of the war, drones were supposed to change how artillery warfare worked and now we're back to sending incredibly expensive and complex military equipment.
You know, you have to calculate where you want a shell to land before you even put the ammo in its gun. Drones help in determining where your targets are, way more exact than just a point on a map, and they have the capability of tracking moving vehicles, showing the drone operator when and where it stops when the driver arrives at its destination or needs to go for a pee or something, and then fire a grenade or two right at that spot.
Without drone support even the most advanced artillery is not as effective as it can be in a situation with moving targets.
Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
Oh have they, really? There's no sign of that, especially regarding logistics. Ammo and equipment is still brought from the hinterlands by train. Also, ammo still in wooden crates, like it's the 19th century, and loaded/unloaded by hand with hardly ever even a forklift available. Still fairly usable when there's a working railroad network, not so much when it's sabotaged of simply unavailable due to your opponent still controlling a few essential junctions. Which was a large part of what stranded the Russian advance on Kyiv, as they failed to take control of the strategically essential railroads through Chernihiv and Sumy. In Donbas the situation was more favourable, until the long-range artillery supplied by the west started showing up. If Ukraine can hit targets not just 20 or 30km from the front lines, but 70 to 100km (and with the M270 arriving it will be even more), ANY ammo depot where it's coming in by train and stored before transported to the front has to be at least that far back behind the lines to keep it from becoming a large and very noisy fireball. And that again means that the trucks bringing the supplies forward from those depots now have to cover more than 200km instead of maybe 100km, so transport throughput goes significantly down. It also isn't kind on the trucks and their drivers (thread by Trent "Logistics and Maintenance" Telenko).
Yes, Russia will still have large stockpiles of war gear: ammo, artillery, tanks, rockets. But just stockpiles are worth shit if you can't get the stuff to where it's needed when it's needed.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:36 AM on July 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
You know, you have to calculate where you want a shell to land before you even put the ammo in its gun. Drones help in determining where your targets are, way more exact than just a point on a map, and they have the capability of tracking moving vehicles, showing the drone operator when and where it stops when the driver arrives at its destination or needs to go for a pee or something, and then fire a grenade or two right at that spot.
Without drone support even the most advanced artillery is not as effective as it can be in a situation with moving targets.
Russia was supposed to go through all its available ammunition and it has proven time and again that they're not running out and if anything their tactics and logistics have greatly improved.
Oh have they, really? There's no sign of that, especially regarding logistics. Ammo and equipment is still brought from the hinterlands by train. Also, ammo still in wooden crates, like it's the 19th century, and loaded/unloaded by hand with hardly ever even a forklift available. Still fairly usable when there's a working railroad network, not so much when it's sabotaged of simply unavailable due to your opponent still controlling a few essential junctions. Which was a large part of what stranded the Russian advance on Kyiv, as they failed to take control of the strategically essential railroads through Chernihiv and Sumy. In Donbas the situation was more favourable, until the long-range artillery supplied by the west started showing up. If Ukraine can hit targets not just 20 or 30km from the front lines, but 70 to 100km (and with the M270 arriving it will be even more), ANY ammo depot where it's coming in by train and stored before transported to the front has to be at least that far back behind the lines to keep it from becoming a large and very noisy fireball. And that again means that the trucks bringing the supplies forward from those depots now have to cover more than 200km instead of maybe 100km, so transport throughput goes significantly down. It also isn't kind on the trucks and their drivers (thread by Trent "Logistics and Maintenance" Telenko).
Yes, Russia will still have large stockpiles of war gear: ammo, artillery, tanks, rockets. But just stockpiles are worth shit if you can't get the stuff to where it's needed when it's needed.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:36 AM on July 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
I still technically have a lot of food in my house but I haven't been grocery shopping for a good long while so it's getting harder and harder to actually put together a meal with my steadily decreasing stockpile of ingredients.
And I'm trying not to use the especially good ingredients because I need to save them for a good dish rather than trying to make something bad a little less bad.
I haven't run out of food and I'm not going to but it IS getting harder and harder to feed myself.
posted by VTX at 9:12 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
And I'm trying not to use the especially good ingredients because I need to save them for a good dish rather than trying to make something bad a little less bad.
I haven't run out of food and I'm not going to but it IS getting harder and harder to feed myself.
posted by VTX at 9:12 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Russian state looks fascist at the top, but it lacks the fascist capacity for total war. It has governed thus far by the demobilization of its population, not its mobilization.
This is the crux of it. Putin's political support bases are perfectly fine with poor people and ethnic minorities being thrown into meat grinders. If their sons or grandsons are called up because Putin needs 2 million men to finish the job it's not going to go well.
At the moment it's basically a game of geopolitical chicken. Russia is Wile E. Coyote who's run clear off the cliff but hasn't yet looked down.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:34 AM on July 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is the crux of it. Putin's political support bases are perfectly fine with poor people and ethnic minorities being thrown into meat grinders. If their sons or grandsons are called up because Putin needs 2 million men to finish the job it's not going to go well.
At the moment it's basically a game of geopolitical chicken. Russia is Wile E. Coyote who's run clear off the cliff but hasn't yet looked down.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:34 AM on July 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yes, Russia will still have large stockpiles of war gear: ammo, artillery, tanks, rockets. But just stockpiles are worth shit if you can't get the stuff to where it's needed when it's needed.
The other thing is that prosecuting a war requires maintenance of parts. There's only so many times a barrel can shoot accurately before being too worn to be effective or worse. This is one of the areas where Russia has come up to the bill being due. We're about to start day 152 of the war and most artillery barrels are good for maybe 2500 shots at most. 15 shots per day and those barrels are probably living on borrowed time if not pretty fucked. 20 shots per day and they're fucked. There have been mutterings from the rank and file that the artillery is getting worse and OSint is starting to see artillery blowing itself up.
The West? They're been getting maintenance supplies to Ukraine.
So Russia can have shells until the cows come home. If they can't hit shit with them they're just giving Ukrainian farmers a massive scrap metal revenue stream.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:55 AM on July 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
The other thing is that prosecuting a war requires maintenance of parts. There's only so many times a barrel can shoot accurately before being too worn to be effective or worse. This is one of the areas where Russia has come up to the bill being due. We're about to start day 152 of the war and most artillery barrels are good for maybe 2500 shots at most. 15 shots per day and those barrels are probably living on borrowed time if not pretty fucked. 20 shots per day and they're fucked. There have been mutterings from the rank and file that the artillery is getting worse and OSint is starting to see artillery blowing itself up.
The West? They're been getting maintenance supplies to Ukraine.
So Russia can have shells until the cows come home. If they can't hit shit with them they're just giving Ukrainian farmers a massive scrap metal revenue stream.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:55 AM on July 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
Meanwhile, news from another dimension: Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is in Russia: "I'm on holiday for a few days here. Moscow is a nice city."
posted by UN at 1:50 PM on July 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by UN at 1:50 PM on July 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
With the Russian banks being locked out of the global financial system Gerhard has to go fetch his paycheck in person.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:27 PM on July 25, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:27 PM on July 25, 2022 [14 favorites]
Gazprom said flows would fall to 33 million cubic metres per day from 4 a.m. GMT on Wednesday. He's gonna make Germany freeze this winter.
posted by scruss at 8:29 PM on July 25, 2022
posted by scruss at 8:29 PM on July 25, 2022
And yes, the Russian tank situation is dire. They are running out of modern tanks they can send to the front. Obsolete tanks are .... maybe better than none? Perhaps? If they run in the first place. Drones do help vs artillery, but Russia had ginormous artillery units to start with. Basically, Russia has artillery, money, and near forcing or forcing people to fight. The latest ISW mentions extra mobilization of medical staff. Not good trend for the Russians.
Modern artillery is arriving in Ukraine now, and making a huge difference. Logistics and supply, but also on Russian morale, already low. Russian artillery used to let them fight on more or less fair terms... (Bombard a position/city into dust, war crimes the survivors and declare victory...) But that equation is drastically changed.
I think we've seen the high water mark of the Russian invasion. I see zero reason for Ukraine to give up now. If Putin agreed to withdraw from everywhere but Crimea, maybe. That's a price potentially worth paying at this point. But anything much short of that doesn't really benefit Ukraine as a nation. Letting Russia keep all those ports and industrial areas is really bad for the country.
posted by Jacen at 10:15 PM on July 25, 2022 [11 favorites]
Modern artillery is arriving in Ukraine now, and making a huge difference. Logistics and supply, but also on Russian morale, already low. Russian artillery used to let them fight on more or less fair terms... (Bombard a position/city into dust, war crimes the survivors and declare victory...) But that equation is drastically changed.
I think we've seen the high water mark of the Russian invasion. I see zero reason for Ukraine to give up now. If Putin agreed to withdraw from everywhere but Crimea, maybe. That's a price potentially worth paying at this point. But anything much short of that doesn't really benefit Ukraine as a nation. Letting Russia keep all those ports and industrial areas is really bad for the country.
posted by Jacen at 10:15 PM on July 25, 2022 [11 favorites]
Oh, and Russia is increasingly using specialist missiles, anti air and anti sea, for ground targets. Another not good situation on their side.
posted by Jacen at 4:46 AM on July 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 4:46 AM on July 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Germany delivers three Mars II multiple launch rocket systems, three more Panzerhaubitzen 2000 and five Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer Gepard today and yesterday. Faster would be better, but better now than never.
I'd like to see Schröder at Putin's 5 Meter table explaining his worth. Actually, I'd like to see them in jail. But anyway, one step at a time.
posted by UN at 8:46 AM on July 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'd like to see Schröder at Putin's 5 Meter table explaining his worth. Actually, I'd like to see them in jail. But anyway, one step at a time.
posted by UN at 8:46 AM on July 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
The German government promised Gepard to Ukraine back in the spring (they had been in mothballs), but Switzerland blocked transfer of ammunition they had manufactured to Ukraine. Eventually, the German government found a supplier in Norway for the 35mm Oerlikon automatic guns mounted on the Gepard (which means cheetah).
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:48 AM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:48 AM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm guessing Germany may have finally reached the Kübler-Ross Acceptance stage regarding its relationship with Russia.
posted by acb at 11:39 AM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 11:39 AM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
I see zero reason for Ukraine to give up now. If Putin agreed to withdraw from everywhere but Crimea, maybe. That's a price potentially worth paying at this point.There seems to be no shortage and no stoppage of evidence that "Putin agreed to..." is meaningless.
I tend to think that anything short of making Putin look like a weak, ineffective fool in a way that would leave no uncertainty in any but the most deeply brainwashed Russian would just be an invitation for him to personally oversee a crackdown on the military's endemic problems, regroup, rearm, come up with an actual plan besides "Be greeted with flowers", and do it all again -- right this time -- in a few years.
posted by Flunkie at 1:34 PM on July 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
As lovely as it would be to see the Russians utterly defeated and driven out of all of Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbass, it remains to be seen if Ukraine will be able to do that, even with maximal Western support. Ukraine should be given all the support we can give them, and we should be patient about the results as long as they are still willing to fight.
However, ultimately we may have to accept at some point that a negotiated settlement with Russia continuing to occupy some portion of pre-February 2022 Ukraine might be all that can be achieved. We should not accept this until we have given Ukraine our maximum support and they have decided by themselves to settle, but we also shouldn't assume that a full Russian defeat can be achieved.
Don't get me wrong, we should do everything we can to help Ukraine drive the Russians from all of Ukraine's territory including Crimea and the Donbass. We should just be realistic that the chances of that are smaller than we might like.
After the war, whatever the outcome, we will need to continue to support Ukraine's need to defend itself against future Russian aggression, and to develop into a prosperous and successful democratic society.
posted by Reverend John at 1:55 PM on July 26, 2022
However, ultimately we may have to accept at some point that a negotiated settlement with Russia continuing to occupy some portion of pre-February 2022 Ukraine might be all that can be achieved. We should not accept this until we have given Ukraine our maximum support and they have decided by themselves to settle, but we also shouldn't assume that a full Russian defeat can be achieved.
Don't get me wrong, we should do everything we can to help Ukraine drive the Russians from all of Ukraine's territory including Crimea and the Donbass. We should just be realistic that the chances of that are smaller than we might like.
After the war, whatever the outcome, we will need to continue to support Ukraine's need to defend itself against future Russian aggression, and to develop into a prosperous and successful democratic society.
posted by Reverend John at 1:55 PM on July 26, 2022
To be clear, I'm not assuming Ukraine can do it, and I'm all for Ukraine being in charge of what Ukraine is willing to accept in order to stop the war. But that doesn't change my opinion about what it will take for the war to actually stop, rather than being on a relatively brief "Putin agreed to the permanent treaty of everlasting peace and friendship" pause.
posted by Flunkie at 1:58 PM on July 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 1:58 PM on July 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Quick overview, by Phillips P OBrien on this academic paper which assesses the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy in detail. Capsule comment: not looking good for Russia.
posted by rongorongo at 2:25 PM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 2:25 PM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
The big question I have about the Russian economy is when will the situation either impact the Russian war machine's ability to keep fighting or when will the average citizen of Moscow or St. Petersburg start to perceive a significant and sustained decrease in their material standard of living connected to the war?
posted by Reverend John at 3:46 PM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 3:46 PM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
The average citizen of Moscow or St. Petersburg can no longer shop at a number of Western brands, whose presence in the country was synonymous with the implicit deal of Putin-era “managed democracy” (“don't ask questions about politics, and I'll provide you with material affluence and stability”); those companies have left the country, selling their shops at knockdown prices to local businessmen, and given what it takes to be successful in business in Putinist Russia, it's unlikely that the “just like _ only patriotic” standards will be maintained. One example: the company that took over Russia's McDonalds, replacing its logo with a stylised burger patty and two fries, has no fries due to their potato-grade potato logistics.
There's going to be a lot of bitter gallows humour about the patriotic Russian alternatives to IKEA/Nike/iPhone/whatever being shoddy garbage of the sort that comes out of a kleptocracy. That's not going to lighten the mood.
posted by acb at 4:04 PM on July 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
There's going to be a lot of bitter gallows humour about the patriotic Russian alternatives to IKEA/Nike/iPhone/whatever being shoddy garbage of the sort that comes out of a kleptocracy. That's not going to lighten the mood.
posted by acb at 4:04 PM on July 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
I feel like Ukraine is setting conditions for a rout in Kherson.
posted by ryanrs at 7:49 PM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 7:49 PM on July 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
From Timothy Snyder's substack (26 July 22)
"Is it possible for the Ukrainians to gain the necessary momentum on the battlefield? I think that this is likely, but first I want to acknowledge something very basic. Wars are predictably unpredictable. They take place over time and on terrain, on bodies and in minds, in realms not easily captured in maps or in textbooks — and some unexpected development can intrude from some odd angle and change everything.
I believe, though, that it is most likely that Ukraine will win this war, on the basis of seven underlying factors that tend to decide the form of armed conflicts: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy (the TELLMES). In the case of this war, we also have to consider the wild card of international public opinion.
In discussing each one of the TELLMES, I will also clarify how matters might turn a different way than I expect, making a Russian victory more likely. Then you can make up your own minds about my judgement. My thinking about all this comes from a couple of sources: my reading of military history over the decades, and my attention to the Russian and Ukrainian sources that I follow on this war. Readers might want to compare what I say with the conclusions of proper military historians -- Lawrence Freedman would be a good start."
posted by 15L06 at 1:55 AM on July 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
"Is it possible for the Ukrainians to gain the necessary momentum on the battlefield? I think that this is likely, but first I want to acknowledge something very basic. Wars are predictably unpredictable. They take place over time and on terrain, on bodies and in minds, in realms not easily captured in maps or in textbooks — and some unexpected development can intrude from some odd angle and change everything.
I believe, though, that it is most likely that Ukraine will win this war, on the basis of seven underlying factors that tend to decide the form of armed conflicts: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy (the TELLMES). In the case of this war, we also have to consider the wild card of international public opinion.
In discussing each one of the TELLMES, I will also clarify how matters might turn a different way than I expect, making a Russian victory more likely. Then you can make up your own minds about my judgement. My thinking about all this comes from a couple of sources: my reading of military history over the decades, and my attention to the Russian and Ukrainian sources that I follow on this war. Readers might want to compare what I say with the conclusions of proper military historians -- Lawrence Freedman would be a good start."
posted by 15L06 at 1:55 AM on July 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
A video of the Antonivka Road Bridge, which the invaders have closed to traffic due to damage after a night strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has been released into the public domain.
The bridge is "full of holes", and in some places it is completely perforated.
The Ukrainian fighters hit virtually the same part of the road surface on the bridge as last time.
"Now the only way to escape is on foot or by water," commented the Ukrainian Armed Forces' StratCom on the prospects of the Russian invaders.
posted by UN at 3:37 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
The bridge is "full of holes", and in some places it is completely perforated.
The Ukrainian fighters hit virtually the same part of the road surface on the bridge as last time.
"Now the only way to escape is on foot or by water," commented the Ukrainian Armed Forces' StratCom on the prospects of the Russian invaders.
posted by UN at 3:37 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
The reports are that they hit the bridge with artillery, not HIMARS last night and they hit it when a Russian construction crew was trying to conduct repairs under cover of darkness.
posted by interogative mood at 6:49 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 6:49 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
A good roundup of the videos showing damage to the Kherson bridge and last nights attack.
posted by interogative mood at 7:01 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:01 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: But the work is going to be less precise.
And slower, even if they have a sufficient amount of older tooling that doesn't rely on parts that would need to be imported. Never mind that those will likely have been used more, were probably less precise to begin with and not all of their operators will have experience using them.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:06 AM on July 27, 2022
And slower, even if they have a sufficient amount of older tooling that doesn't rely on parts that would need to be imported. Never mind that those will likely have been used more, were probably less precise to begin with and not all of their operators will have experience using them.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:06 AM on July 27, 2022
Sadly autarky is one of those myths that will not die. Nobody exists alone. But countries will still act like they can.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:23 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:23 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Foreign Affairs on the new Russian police state: Putin’s New Police State: In the Shadow of War, the FSB Embraces Stalin’s Methods
posted by Harald74 at 8:15 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 8:15 AM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Has anyone seen any updates on the kidnapping and forced relocation of Ukrainians into Russia? Are there estimated numbers? Do we think they will ever be found and rescued?
posted by Glinn at 8:24 AM on July 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Glinn at 8:24 AM on July 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
The reports are that they hit the bridge with artillery, not HIMARS
A quick distance measurement tells me that those bridges are roughly 65km away from the nearest part of the frontline at Novopavliske, which would be at the edge of the effective range of the PzH2000, and out of range for the CAESAR and the M777. But 'effective range' depends on the size of the target and how exact your hit has to be. If the goal is to hit an already damaged bridge to damage it some more, nearly all hits will be good enough and bridges are not that small a target.
One of the videos shows three SAMs being launched which looks to me to be quite ineffective against a grenade, but it might be a kind of kneejerk reaction: "Incoming fire, with this distance from the front it must be rocket missiles so shoot a few SAMs at them."
posted by Stoneshop at 8:48 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
A quick distance measurement tells me that those bridges are roughly 65km away from the nearest part of the frontline at Novopavliske, which would be at the edge of the effective range of the PzH2000, and out of range for the CAESAR and the M777. But 'effective range' depends on the size of the target and how exact your hit has to be. If the goal is to hit an already damaged bridge to damage it some more, nearly all hits will be good enough and bridges are not that small a target.
One of the videos shows three SAMs being launched which looks to me to be quite ineffective against a grenade, but it might be a kind of kneejerk reaction: "Incoming fire, with this distance from the front it must be rocket missiles so shoot a few SAMs at them."
posted by Stoneshop at 8:48 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
In the US Army, at least, rocket artillery is still artillery, operated by the same branch of the organization as howitzers. Now, anti-aircraft artillery (and rockets) are in a separate branch (that's what my dad used to do).
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:26 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:26 AM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not directly related to the war, but there was a long, interesting English-language article on Spiegel: The Anatomy of Germany's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas.
It was during this time that two dogmas became established in the gas business with Russia, which held sway until Feb. 24. Doctrines that were never seriously questioned, despite all the warning signs. The first: The flow of Russian gas is interrupted by nothing. It continued when Kremlin troops marched into Afghanistan in 1979, in 2008 when the Russian military crossed into Georgia, in 2014 when it was Crimea's turn. It continued flowing when West Germany boycotted the Olympics in Moscow, when NATO expanded right to the Russian border in 1999 and when the EU imposed sanctions on Russia because of Crimea. Russia never turned off the spigot, and never did the Germans consider not accepting the gas.posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:21 PM on July 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
The second dogma: Germany doesn't have a dependency problem when it comes to Russian natural gas. On the contrary, it is Russia that is dependent on German money...
Ah, so "not HIMARS" would probably just mean another piece of rocket artillery, although the time between impacts also seems to suggest grenades, not rocket projectiles.
Anyway, the bridges are as good as unusable, causing a serious resupply setback for the troops roughly east of the line Kakhova-Snihurivka.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:51 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Anyway, the bridges are as good as unusable, causing a serious resupply setback for the troops roughly east of the line Kakhova-Snihurivka.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:51 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
The second dogma: Germany doesn't have a dependency problem when it comes to Russian natural gas. On the contrary, it is Russia that is dependent on German money...
I'd believe this statement more if Germany impounded Russian gas funds instead of adding to Russia's forex pile.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:23 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'd believe this statement more if Germany impounded Russian gas funds instead of adding to Russia's forex pile.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:23 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Look at this supposed recently captured Russian BMP gun barrel for an example of the quality control issues and problems that may happen as their CNC parts run low and they try to scale up production with unskilled laborers or switch to older tooling.
As noted by the machinist nerds in that thread metal expands when hot and when the gun is fired the metal gets very hot. If the bore isn’t centered the gun barrel will start to bend because it expands unevenly. This kills the accuracy and it will also cause the barrel to wear rapidly because of the stresses that build up from uneven expansion and contraction. This will cause the gun to have a high chance of randomly failing catastrophically and turning into a peeled banana looking thing when fired, generally injuring anyone near it when it is fired.
posted by interogative mood at 1:27 PM on July 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
As noted by the machinist nerds in that thread metal expands when hot and when the gun is fired the metal gets very hot. If the bore isn’t centered the gun barrel will start to bend because it expands unevenly. This kills the accuracy and it will also cause the barrel to wear rapidly because of the stresses that build up from uneven expansion and contraction. This will cause the gun to have a high chance of randomly failing catastrophically and turning into a peeled banana looking thing when fired, generally injuring anyone near it when it is fired.
posted by interogative mood at 1:27 PM on July 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe has produced a recent report about the forced deportations of Ukrainians from occupied territories. Highlights include details of torture and interrogations as part of the "filtration" process.
Latest estimates I saw were 2 million deported, 200K of them kids. The more enterprising of them are making their way back via the Baltics and Finland, often with the help of Russian opposition networks.
It's textbook Russian treatment of occupied territories since at least the 18th century. Guess how there were enough Poles in Russia to form an army of over a hundred thousand in 1941. Shoot the elite / potential resistance leaders and deport the rest to Siberia, standard operating procedure for the last three centuries.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:37 PM on July 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
Latest estimates I saw were 2 million deported, 200K of them kids. The more enterprising of them are making their way back via the Baltics and Finland, often with the help of Russian opposition networks.
It's textbook Russian treatment of occupied territories since at least the 18th century. Guess how there were enough Poles in Russia to form an army of over a hundred thousand in 1941. Shoot the elite / potential resistance leaders and deport the rest to Siberia, standard operating procedure for the last three centuries.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:37 PM on July 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: With the bore on the barrel clearly off center. 8 cm (or inches) on one side and 11 cm (or inches).
Looks to be the barrel of a 30mm 2A72 autocannon, which is one of the guns a BMP-3 is fitted with. So those '8' and '11' are mm. Still, really bad machining, and this shouldn't have left the shop except as scrap to be recycled. Which is what its destination is now anyway.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:54 PM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Looks to be the barrel of a 30mm 2A72 autocannon, which is one of the guns a BMP-3 is fitted with. So those '8' and '11' are mm. Still, really bad machining, and this shouldn't have left the shop except as scrap to be recycled. Which is what its destination is now anyway.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:54 PM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Latest estimates I saw were 2 million deported, 200K of them kids.
The world is slightly more modern now? Can anything be done? I mean, I say that with the understanding that Russian civilians may need as much help as the captured Ukrainians, and obviously atrocities have been taking place my whole life, in one place or another, or many places, and we haven't done much about any of those. So much more of the world seems to be watching this time, and demanding action from their leaders. At least it started that way.
posted by Glinn at 3:27 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
The world is slightly more modern now? Can anything be done? I mean, I say that with the understanding that Russian civilians may need as much help as the captured Ukrainians, and obviously atrocities have been taking place my whole life, in one place or another, or many places, and we haven't done much about any of those. So much more of the world seems to be watching this time, and demanding action from their leaders. At least it started that way.
posted by Glinn at 3:27 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kings And Generals has done their summary of the fourth month of the war: Russia's Best Month [32m]
posted by hippybear at 3:34 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 3:34 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm guessing that 30mm autocannon heats up really fast, too.
That Kings and Generals video has really clear visualizations of what's happening in this confusing war.
posted by Bee'sWing at 1:51 AM on July 28, 2022
That Kings and Generals video has really clear visualizations of what's happening in this confusing war.
posted by Bee'sWing at 1:51 AM on July 28, 2022
Seems like the Ukrainians will get ATACMS for their HIMARS and M270 after all. These are missiles with 300km range, as opposed to 80 km for the most common missile in use today. Two or three should cover all of occupied Ukrainian territory, and I suspect tighten the screws on Russian logistics and command and control even further.
Those are official ranges, BTW, it seems like most Western artillery equipment have conservative official numbers published and are actually a bit more capable than advertised.
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Those are official ranges, BTW, it seems like most Western artillery equipment have conservative official numbers published and are actually a bit more capable than advertised.
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
And German authorities have green-lit Ukrainian purchase of 100 more PzH2000, so it seems like they were very satisfied with the handful they got up til now. That's firing up the production line for new pieces, though, so they won't arrive for years.
posted by Harald74 at 11:41 PM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:41 PM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
I suspect that by then, Ukraine's big problem will be sorting out its extremely heterogenous collection of arms into a handful of models for which spares and consumables may be managed effectively, so whoever comes through with a steady supply of what they need will be onto a winner.
posted by acb at 1:43 AM on July 29, 2022
posted by acb at 1:43 AM on July 29, 2022
acb: its extremely heterogenous collection of arms into a handful of models for which spares and consumables may be managed effectively,
Yes, Ukraine will have a motley mix of USSR and Western equipment, but so do the ex Warsaw Pact countries although those are a bit further down the road of retiring Russian gear. Not very coincidentally Ukraine is right next to them, so sharing spares, repair facilities and any worthwhile upgrades shouldn't be too hard, technically, and is currently already being done.
Consumables for artillery are moderately easy to manage: you have a selection of grenades in the right calibers, and on loading a gun one or more charges get put in behind it, depending on target distance and shell weight, so you don't have to have a wide range of cartridges for the various tasks. The newest Ukrainian mobile howitzer very sensibly is 155mm, and while there probably will be some exceptions, CAESAR, M777, PzH and it can share most ammo.
Tank and IFV ammo are cartridges, but for the time being those are all USSR caliber. With the big question of how much Ukraine still has available.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:50 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yes, Ukraine will have a motley mix of USSR and Western equipment, but so do the ex Warsaw Pact countries although those are a bit further down the road of retiring Russian gear. Not very coincidentally Ukraine is right next to them, so sharing spares, repair facilities and any worthwhile upgrades shouldn't be too hard, technically, and is currently already being done.
Consumables for artillery are moderately easy to manage: you have a selection of grenades in the right calibers, and on loading a gun one or more charges get put in behind it, depending on target distance and shell weight, so you don't have to have a wide range of cartridges for the various tasks. The newest Ukrainian mobile howitzer very sensibly is 155mm, and while there probably will be some exceptions, CAESAR, M777, PzH and it can share most ammo.
Tank and IFV ammo are cartridges, but for the time being those are all USSR caliber. With the big question of how much Ukraine still has available.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:50 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia has decided to go all in on war crimes with a video of one of their soldiers castrating a Ukrainian POW and another showing a bunch of decapitated POW’s heads on pikes being proudly shared all over telegram in the last 24 hours.
posted by interogative mood at 3:35 AM on July 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:35 AM on July 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yeah, I saw trustworthy sources that had seen them, and decided for myself that I'm going to take their word and not have a look myself.
This is probably the last chance for the Russians to salvage any semblance of following the laws of war. I wrote a whole paragraph and delted it, who am I kidding, they will just issue a flood of denials and fabrications....
posted by Harald74 at 4:26 AM on July 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
This is probably the last chance for the Russians to salvage any semblance of following the laws of war. I wrote a whole paragraph and delted it, who am I kidding, they will just issue a flood of denials and fabrications....
posted by Harald74 at 4:26 AM on July 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Tank and IFV ammo are cartridges, but for the time being those are all USSR caliber. With the big question of how much Ukraine still has available.
Poland has just gone on the mother of all shopping sprees in South Korea, ordering tanks and self-propelled howitzers numbering in the high three digits. Norway, Finland and Estonia also operate K9 howitzer from SK, and Turkey the K2 tank which Norway is also trialling at the moment. I would be surprised if the Polish decision to not buy German was not influenced by the last few month's German foot-dragging vs Ukraine.
With a big user base being established in Europe, Ukraine might do worse than going for the K2 tank in the future, despite the obvious logistical challenges in working with a provider from halfway across the globe. On the howitzer side they've decided to stick with the Germans so far.
posted by Harald74 at 4:35 AM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Poland has just gone on the mother of all shopping sprees in South Korea, ordering tanks and self-propelled howitzers numbering in the high three digits. Norway, Finland and Estonia also operate K9 howitzer from SK, and Turkey the K2 tank which Norway is also trialling at the moment. I would be surprised if the Polish decision to not buy German was not influenced by the last few month's German foot-dragging vs Ukraine.
With a big user base being established in Europe, Ukraine might do worse than going for the K2 tank in the future, despite the obvious logistical challenges in working with a provider from halfway across the globe. On the howitzer side they've decided to stick with the Germans so far.
posted by Harald74 at 4:35 AM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Some further reading seems to indicate that the Koreans' willingness to have both assembly and spare part production in Poland was a deciding factor.
For those keeping notes at home, Poland is still buying hundreds of latest-generation M1A2 SEPV V3 Abrams tanks from the US. Aaaannnd buying the discarded USMC M1A1 tanks for quick delivery and later upgrades.
posted by Harald74 at 4:54 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
For those keeping notes at home, Poland is still buying hundreds of latest-generation M1A2 SEPV V3 Abrams tanks from the US. Aaaannnd buying the discarded USMC M1A1 tanks for quick delivery and later upgrades.
posted by Harald74 at 4:54 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Apparently the PzH2000s are facing problems at the current high rate of fire. Kiew meldet Probleme mit deutschen Haubitzen (Die Welt):
In the Bundeswehr, it is assumed that the problems are related to the high rate of fire with which the Ukrainian armed forces use the guns in the fight against the Russian invaders; the loading mechanism of the howitzer is put under enormous strain as a result. The troops consider 100 shells a day to be a high-intensity mission, but the Ukrainians apparently fired far more shells. In addition, the soldiers at the front are said to have initially tried to fire special ammunition at too great a distance. (via google translate)This absolutely insane detail would be funny in peacetime, but right now it is terrifying instead:
New problems have also emerged with ammunition replenishment for the Gepard anti -aircraft tank , the first five systems of which were recently delivered to Ukraine , according to the report . During the test shooting in Germany, it turned out that the firing system of the Gepard does not recognize the ammunition from a Norwegian manufacturer, so the projectiles now have to be improved. The modified ammunition is to be tested again in August.posted by kmt at 5:05 AM on July 29, 2022
I would be surprised if the Polish decision to not buy German was not influenced by the last few month's German foot-dragging vs Ukraine.
I'm not sure if it's been linked in these threads, but there is an ongoing issue with the German-Polish-Ukrainian Ringtausch: Germany did not want to send Ukraine modern tanks since they said Ukraine would need to too long to learn the systems. Instead, Poland sends 270 T72 tanks to Ukraine, Germany compensates Poland with German tanks. The problem: Germany then offered Poland a very small number of tanks that are even older and less capable than the Soviet ones it sent to Ukraine. Scholz and the SPD then don't improve the situation by basically saying "so what's the problem?". The other coalition parties (Greens and FDP) have been trying to clean up the mess, but it hasn't helped Germany's reputation, nor has it helped Poland's problem yet.
posted by UN at 5:51 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not sure if it's been linked in these threads, but there is an ongoing issue with the German-Polish-Ukrainian Ringtausch: Germany did not want to send Ukraine modern tanks since they said Ukraine would need to too long to learn the systems. Instead, Poland sends 270 T72 tanks to Ukraine, Germany compensates Poland with German tanks. The problem: Germany then offered Poland a very small number of tanks that are even older and less capable than the Soviet ones it sent to Ukraine. Scholz and the SPD then don't improve the situation by basically saying "so what's the problem?". The other coalition parties (Greens and FDP) have been trying to clean up the mess, but it hasn't helped Germany's reputation, nor has it helped Poland's problem yet.
posted by UN at 5:51 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
For those keeping notes at home, Poland is still buying hundreds of latest-generation M1A2 SEPV V3 Abrams tanks from the US. Aaaannnd buying the discarded USMC M1A1 tanks for quick delivery and later upgrades.
Not surprising. The SEPv3 is able to take on the Israeli Trophy APS which can deal with all of the ATGMs that the Russians can throw at it. An M1 with Trophy is basically invincible to everything Russia can throw at it right now.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:35 AM on July 29, 2022
Not surprising. The SEPv3 is able to take on the Israeli Trophy APS which can deal with all of the ATGMs that the Russians can throw at it. An M1 with Trophy is basically invincible to everything Russia can throw at it right now.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:35 AM on July 29, 2022
Russia has decided to go all in on war crimes with a video of one of their soldiers castrating a Ukrainian POW and another showing a bunch of decapitated POW’s heads on pikes being proudly shared all over telegram in the last 24 hours.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:07 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Georgian Legion @georgian_legionTheir adversaries are not happy.
Our sniper squads know every detail now. There will be no place to hide for every single war criminal.
Let the hunting begin 🐺
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:07 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Their adversaries are not happy.
Content warning ⚠️ if one scrolls down to some of the replies to that tweet. Videos are as gruesome and horrific as one would expect from the descriptions of some of the recent atrocities committed by the Russian military forces. It's undescribably vile. I feel very, very worried about the civilians living in occupied areas. They need to be freed now.
posted by UN at 9:29 AM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Content warning ⚠️ if one scrolls down to some of the replies to that tweet. Videos are as gruesome and horrific as one would expect from the descriptions of some of the recent atrocities committed by the Russian military forces. It's undescribably vile. I feel very, very worried about the civilians living in occupied areas. They need to be freed now.
posted by UN at 9:29 AM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
If there's a way to get that imagery onto every television and phone in Russia, it needs to happen.
posted by UN at 9:33 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 9:33 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia also murdered a few dozen POWs at a prison camp. Claiming, of course, that it was Ukraine that shelled them. I guess there's a small percentage chance that Russia had an double agent leak the location as an ammo dump, but honestly that's more sophisticated than Russia is bothering to be with their war crimes, so I would assume it was probably just straight up their bombs.
posted by tavella at 10:25 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 10:25 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
And of course, either way said bombing was certainly staged to cover up the torture and murder of POWs.
posted by tavella at 10:27 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 10:27 AM on July 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Did the Russians not notice the sort of things that happened after the prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib came to light? These stories only get worse.
posted by Bee'sWing at 10:42 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 10:42 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
If Russia/Putin cared about the lives of their people, they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine in the first place. In fact, I would suspect that publicizing their torture and murder of POWs is in part aimed at deliberately _provoking_ such retaliation, so that their sycophants in the West can chant "both sides! both sides!".
posted by tavella at 11:10 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by tavella at 11:10 AM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
UN: If there's a way to get that imagery onto every television and phone in Russia, it needs to happen.
Not sure if that's going to achieve much.
If it's clear these were Ukrainian PoW's a number of people will shout "Good, more!", a few will protest with the Cheka/GPU/KGB/GRU/whatevertheycallthemselvesnow vigorously cracking down on them, and most will keep quiet and their head down.
It's also quite likely that the Russian government will spin this into "Russian PoW's being slaughtered by Ukrainians", a few people seeing through the spin protesting, or protesting anyway, with the aforementioned SS* vigorously cracking down, quite a lot of people going "Graarrh!" and the remainder keeping quiet and their head down.
Body bags returning to middle class Moskow andLeniSt.Petersburg neighbourhoods, and not just to Buryatian Peasantvilles might have more effect, but so far that appears not to be happening much.
* yes, deliberate acronym for the Security Services.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:12 AM on July 29, 2022
Not sure if that's going to achieve much.
If it's clear these were Ukrainian PoW's a number of people will shout "Good, more!", a few will protest with the Cheka/GPU/KGB/GRU/whatevertheycallthemselvesnow vigorously cracking down on them, and most will keep quiet and their head down.
It's also quite likely that the Russian government will spin this into "Russian PoW's being slaughtered by Ukrainians", a few people seeing through the spin protesting, or protesting anyway, with the aforementioned SS* vigorously cracking down, quite a lot of people going "Graarrh!" and the remainder keeping quiet and their head down.
Body bags returning to middle class Moskow and
* yes, deliberate acronym for the Security Services.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:12 AM on July 29, 2022
The Russian state looks fascist at the top, but it lacks the fascist capacity for total war. It has governed thus far by the demobilization of its population, not its mobilization.
I'm generally not a big fan of the "X is fascism" because fascism resulted from a particular set of social and economic conditions. So unless you have millions of demobilised veterans, inured to violence and desperate for work and a sense of mission, what you get might be a very, very bad right wing extremist government but not be fascism. It could even possibly be worse than the actual fascists of the 1930s (although hard to see how) while still not being fascism i.e. fascism is not just "the worst kind of far right guy".
I think this is a good example of why, in the specific Russian case. Russia is an incredibly politically demobilised place. The freaks who read Russian military blogs calling for a general mobilisation or cheering at horrible videos like this are not really representative of Putin's "base" because his "base" is just people who are completely disengaged from any kind of politics.
posted by atrazine at 1:16 PM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm generally not a big fan of the "X is fascism" because fascism resulted from a particular set of social and economic conditions. So unless you have millions of demobilised veterans, inured to violence and desperate for work and a sense of mission, what you get might be a very, very bad right wing extremist government but not be fascism. It could even possibly be worse than the actual fascists of the 1930s (although hard to see how) while still not being fascism i.e. fascism is not just "the worst kind of far right guy".
I think this is a good example of why, in the specific Russian case. Russia is an incredibly politically demobilised place. The freaks who read Russian military blogs calling for a general mobilisation or cheering at horrible videos like this are not really representative of Putin's "base" because his "base" is just people who are completely disengaged from any kind of politics.
posted by atrazine at 1:16 PM on July 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
On the Madrid Summit. July, 11.
"...the additional brigade that Germany has pledged to contribute, comprising 3,500 troops. Although earmarked to bolster the Lithuanian Armed Forces , they will remain in Germany, with only a small headquarters element deployed forward. Bringing these forces up to the required readiness and sustaining them will be extremely expensive and would be likely to rapidly eat up any increase in defence budgets. Achieving the 2% of GDP that NATO nations are signed up to (as a baseline not a target as is often misconstrued), currently only realised by 8 nations, will do little more than halt the decline in national defence capabilities over the previous decade."
posted by clavdivs at 5:49 PM on July 29, 2022
"...the additional brigade that Germany has pledged to contribute, comprising 3,500 troops. Although earmarked to bolster the Lithuanian Armed Forces , they will remain in Germany, with only a small headquarters element deployed forward. Bringing these forces up to the required readiness and sustaining them will be extremely expensive and would be likely to rapidly eat up any increase in defence budgets. Achieving the 2% of GDP that NATO nations are signed up to (as a baseline not a target as is often misconstrued), currently only realised by 8 nations, will do little more than halt the decline in national defence capabilities over the previous decade."
posted by clavdivs at 5:49 PM on July 29, 2022
That prison camp being near the front is in itself a failure to protect the POWs in accordance with the Geneva Conventions, thus a war crime.
posted by Harald74 at 11:35 PM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:35 PM on July 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
In lighter news the subreddit r/Moscow was liberated by an underground resistance movement called NAFO (North Atlantic Fellas Organization). r/NonCredibleDefense is celebrating the win
posted by interogative mood at 1:16 PM on July 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 1:16 PM on July 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
You know, r/NonCredibleDefense often seem to come from a place of better knowledge than many highly paid mainstream commentators...
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 PM on July 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 PM on July 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hah. Ukraine pissing in Russia's Navy Day party punch bowl.
A drone flew into the Russian headquarters of its Black Sea fleet, injuring five people, the governor of Sevastopol said.posted by Stoneshop at 4:58 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia’s state-run Ria-Novosti news agency quoted Mikhail Razvozzhaev as also saying all festive events in honour of the Navy Day in the city had been cancelled for security reasons.
Russian state media reporting that the HQ of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been hit by a drone attack, wounding five. Today is Navy Day in Russia, major naval parades planned in St. Petersburg and other cities. https://t.co/JgNW99edwv
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) July 31, 2022
Interestingly, the Ukrainians initially denied the drone attack, saying that it's Russia making up excuses for more chronic problems.
posted by acb at 8:59 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 8:59 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Swiss Exports to Russia Surge in Race to Beat Sanctions
Turbojets, turbopropellers and other gas turbines are among the items being delivered to Russia.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:23 AM on July 31, 2022
Turbojets, turbopropellers and other gas turbines are among the items being delivered to Russia.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:23 AM on July 31, 2022
Switzerland, as the titular homeland of plutocracy, is essentially a Putinist client state. They also refused to allow Ukraine to use Swiss-manufactured ammunition in German-donated guns. I, for one, am shocked to see this from the country that brought us Nazi Gold.
It's dispiritingly likely that Germany is the least Putinist country in the German-speaking world.
posted by acb at 1:25 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's dispiritingly likely that Germany is the least Putinist country in the German-speaking world.
posted by acb at 1:25 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The no-Swiss-ammo thing is part of their law, not something pro-Putin or anti-Ukraine (at least not obviously so). When they sell ammo to another country, they require the other country to agree not to re-export it, and they do not sell to countries at war.
There are people who say "Yeah but they could do such-and-such to get around it", of course (like "invoke constitutional emergency measures"), and maybe they have a point; I don't know enough about law, let alone Swiss law, to say one way or the other. But even if so, it's not even nearly clear to me that this decision is based on being "essentially a Putinist client state".
posted by Flunkie at 1:46 PM on July 31, 2022
There are people who say "Yeah but they could do such-and-such to get around it", of course (like "invoke constitutional emergency measures"), and maybe they have a point; I don't know enough about law, let alone Swiss law, to say one way or the other. But even if so, it's not even nearly clear to me that this decision is based on being "essentially a Putinist client state".
posted by Flunkie at 1:46 PM on July 31, 2022
At this point, given all the revelations about Swiss involvement with economies and %.01ers and questionable practices, and now these shipments, I think that the Swiss are mostly like self-serving above all else, and let chaos rain (and reign) as long as they are still Swiss.
posted by hippybear at 1:49 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:49 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
More important than any potential drone strike in Sevastopol is the destruction of a 40 car train last night in the Kherson Region’s Brylivka Station. There are reportedly at least 80 dead Russian soldiers and more than 200 injured, along with destruction lots of ammunition and equipment. It looks like the train was spotted by partisans as it came up through Crimea and then the Ukrainians used a HIMARS strike as it slowed to go through a station.
They have also managed to knock our more brides and further isolate the Russian units around Kherson, north of the Dnipro river. It has been reported that many of those units have asked to retreat as they are running out of ammunition and food. The Russians have been ordered to dig in and have begun building defensive fortifications in Kherson in anticipation that Ukraine will attack the city in the next few weeks. The Russian soldiers have also supposedly been told that if they try to retreat they will be shot by their own people on the other side of the river.
posted by interogative mood at 2:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
They have also managed to knock our more brides and further isolate the Russian units around Kherson, north of the Dnipro river. It has been reported that many of those units have asked to retreat as they are running out of ammunition and food. The Russians have been ordered to dig in and have begun building defensive fortifications in Kherson in anticipation that Ukraine will attack the city in the next few weeks. The Russian soldiers have also supposedly been told that if they try to retreat they will be shot by their own people on the other side of the river.
posted by interogative mood at 2:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
If I was a Russian soldier I'd take that as orders to surrender at the first opportunity.
posted by Reverend John at 6:37 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 6:37 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Russian soldiers have also supposedly been told that if they try to retreat they will be shot by their own people on the other side of the river.
Minor detail: the Russians holding the southern bank, blocking their retreat, are the Kadyrovites.
If I was a Russian soldier I'd take that as orders to surrender at the first opportunity.
That's why the box cutter video was released. It's to make the Russian soldiers afraid of surrendering to the Ukrainians. That's also why the Russians are suddenly killing lots of Ukrainian POWs.
posted by ryanrs at 7:08 PM on July 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
Minor detail: the Russians holding the southern bank, blocking their retreat, are the Kadyrovites.
If I was a Russian soldier I'd take that as orders to surrender at the first opportunity.
That's why the box cutter video was released. It's to make the Russian soldiers afraid of surrendering to the Ukrainians. That's also why the Russians are suddenly killing lots of Ukrainian POWs.
posted by ryanrs at 7:08 PM on July 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
Also Volodomy Zolkin released a video on how well Russian POWs are treated the other day.
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The no-Swiss-ammo thing is part of their law, not something pro-Putin or anti-Ukraine (at least not obviously so). When they sell ammo to another country, they require the other country to agree not to re-export it, and they do not sell to countries at war.
The issue is not so much about Swiss following Swiss law. It's about politics claiming neutrality while supporting, to the maximum amount possible, a genocidal dictator with his war of annihilation. Don't sell bullets to Ukraine? Ok. Sell crucial materials to an aggressor state? I'm sure it's nice to be rich. But calling yourself neutral while doing both? I don't think so.
posted by UN at 4:41 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
The issue is not so much about Swiss following Swiss law. It's about politics claiming neutrality while supporting, to the maximum amount possible, a genocidal dictator with his war of annihilation. Don't sell bullets to Ukraine? Ok. Sell crucial materials to an aggressor state? I'm sure it's nice to be rich. But calling yourself neutral while doing both? I don't think so.
posted by UN at 4:41 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Also, Switzerland is the first port of call for Russian oligarchs and state-affiliated enterprises. In the 1980s, the KGB set up front companies there, used to fund covert operations abroad, and later repurposed for looting the country after the USSR collapsed, and many newly-created oligarchs set up their corporate structures there as well. Switzerland has also been home for generations to wealthy, ultraconservative Russian emigrés who had Putin's ear and shaped the ideological tenor of his anti-liberal imperialist view. So it's not unlikely that Swiss interests line up with Putin.
posted by acb at 5:18 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 5:18 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's to make the Russian soldiers afraid of surrendering to the Ukrainians.
There may have been a war waged somewhere in the history of the Earth where the higher-ups didn't tell their soldiers lurid tales of how The Enemy would torture them if they were foolish enough to surrender, but I haven't run across it in my studies.
(some of those tales are at least 75% true)
posted by Etrigan at 5:38 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
There may have been a war waged somewhere in the history of the Earth where the higher-ups didn't tell their soldiers lurid tales of how The Enemy would torture them if they were foolish enough to surrender, but I haven't run across it in my studies.
(some of those tales are at least 75% true)
posted by Etrigan at 5:38 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Don't 'both sides' castration videos.
posted by ryanrs at 7:57 AM on August 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 7:57 AM on August 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
First Ukraine grain shipment under new deal leaves for Lebanon.
Ship set to arrive in Istanbul for inspection on Tuesday as part of deal brokered by Turkey and the UN
posted by adamvasco at 9:06 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ship set to arrive in Istanbul for inspection on Tuesday as part of deal brokered by Turkey and the UN
posted by adamvasco at 9:06 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Don't 'both sides' castration videos.
Pretty sure that's not the intent here.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:22 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Pretty sure that's not the intent here.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:22 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
The French straight up call Olenivka a "Russian massacre".
posted by Harald74 at 10:03 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:03 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
I was wondering how the grain ships would get insurance, but it seems that Lloyd's of London will offer a special package covering up to USD 50 million in damages to the carried grain.
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 AM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Prosecution of Russian War Crimes in Ukraine by Masha Gessen in The New Yorker
posted by riruro at 12:12 PM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by riruro at 12:12 PM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Fuck; that New Yorker article is heartbreaking. “when they went back for him, the soldiers said that his body was mined and could not be moved.”
It’s just war crime after war crime all the way down.
posted by corb at 12:47 PM on August 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
It’s just war crime after war crime all the way down.
posted by corb at 12:47 PM on August 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
Did the Russians not notice the sort of things that happened after the prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib came to light? These stories only get worse.
I have been struck repeatedly by how many lessons Putin could have learned, but clearly hasn't, from a close look at our attempts at military occupations over the past twenty years.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:39 PM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
I have been struck repeatedly by how many lessons Putin could have learned, but clearly hasn't, from a close look at our attempts at military occupations over the past twenty years.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:39 PM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia should have learned from its own experiences in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Libya and Syria that conquering and holding large countries is extremely expensive and nearly impossible. They haven’t been able to put Syria and Libya back together. They are only keeping a lid on Chechnya (population 1.3 million) by paying out billions in subsidies.
posted by interogative mood at 7:06 PM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 7:06 PM on August 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The US also didn’t learn from Russia/USSR’s history of military activities. I am definitely not a military historian or even amateur military history buff, but from my general interest in politics over the decades, it seems unsurprising to me that the exceptionalism or lack of learning from others’ example would go both ways.
posted by eviemath at 8:34 PM on August 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 8:34 PM on August 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia apparently shot 8 long range rockets today and 7 of them were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. The one that wasn't fell in Chervonograd, 15 km from the Polish (and NATO) border. Taking into account the general accuracy of Russian aim, that does not comfort me.
In better news, the first grain ship from Odessa has made it to Istanbul, so the deal is working to some extent.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:03 PM on August 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
In better news, the first grain ship from Odessa has made it to Istanbul, so the deal is working to some extent.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:03 PM on August 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
... or else the Russian Black Sea fleet is not working to some extent
posted by Flunkie at 3:00 PM on August 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 3:00 PM on August 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
The one that wasn't fell in Chervonograd, 15 km from the Polish (and NATO) border.
I wonder what the Nato plan is if a missile crosses the border? Depends on how sorry the Russians seem?
posted by Harald74 at 9:26 PM on August 2, 2022
I wonder what the Nato plan is if a missile crosses the border? Depends on how sorry the Russians seem?
posted by Harald74 at 9:26 PM on August 2, 2022
The only reason Ukraine isn't hitting military targets inside Russia is because we made them pinky-swear not to, and we withheld the big boy 300km missiles.
Not that tit-for-tat border exchanges are a great plan, but NATO does have options to retaliate without going straight to WW3.
posted by ryanrs at 11:17 PM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Not that tit-for-tat border exchanges are a great plan, but NATO does have options to retaliate without going straight to WW3.
posted by ryanrs at 11:17 PM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
For example, the US could allow the Ukrainians to target ATACMS across the Russian border, something they have been hesitant about up to now.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:35 AM on August 3, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:35 AM on August 3, 2022
Fiona Hill and journalist Edward Lucas spend an hour on Intelligence Squared talking about Ukraine and Russia and Putin. Fiona, IMO, is always worth listening to, and this is the most recent thing I've heard from her.
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on August 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on August 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Battle to end the war: Ukraine's chance to get edge over Russia [Kyiv Independent, August 3]:
The third phase of Russia's war on Ukraine is coming.
The first, the Kremlin's brazen blitzkrieg in late February that culminated in the Battle of Kyiv, failed. The months-long Battle of Donbas in Ukraine’s east making up the second phase has gotten bogged down, with Russia having barely enough strength to complete the region's capture.
The war's focus has now pivoted to the south.
After over five months of its full-out war, Russia is employing close to 100% of its conventional military power against Ukraine, with only limited results to show for it.
Russia is steadily losing military power as the country struggles to generate high-quality reserves. It has spent the last month refraining from large-scale operations in Donbas and elsewhere, trying to recover from previous battles.
For Ukraine, this hiatus is a window of opportunity.
While Russia is still coming around, Ukraine's military has the chance to deliver a decisive strike that would allow it to gain an edge over Russia and define the course of the rest of the war. In other words, this could be the war’s turning point.
This third phase could determine the rest of the war. If successful, it could lead to a fourth phase in which Ukraine defeats Russia.
The Kremlin clearly understands the stakes. It is urgently redeploying much of its forces from Donbas to Ukraine’s south, where its positions are the most vulnerable.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:02 PM on August 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
The third phase of Russia's war on Ukraine is coming.
The first, the Kremlin's brazen blitzkrieg in late February that culminated in the Battle of Kyiv, failed. The months-long Battle of Donbas in Ukraine’s east making up the second phase has gotten bogged down, with Russia having barely enough strength to complete the region's capture.
The war's focus has now pivoted to the south.
After over five months of its full-out war, Russia is employing close to 100% of its conventional military power against Ukraine, with only limited results to show for it.
Russia is steadily losing military power as the country struggles to generate high-quality reserves. It has spent the last month refraining from large-scale operations in Donbas and elsewhere, trying to recover from previous battles.
For Ukraine, this hiatus is a window of opportunity.
While Russia is still coming around, Ukraine's military has the chance to deliver a decisive strike that would allow it to gain an edge over Russia and define the course of the rest of the war. In other words, this could be the war’s turning point.
This third phase could determine the rest of the war. If successful, it could lead to a fourth phase in which Ukraine defeats Russia.
The Kremlin clearly understands the stakes. It is urgently redeploying much of its forces from Donbas to Ukraine’s south, where its positions are the most vulnerable.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:02 PM on August 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Switzerland is sanctioning Sberbank, part of aligning themselves with EU sanctions.
posted by Harald74 at 12:02 AM on August 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:02 AM on August 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Maria Butina being herself on Russian state TV.
(If the name is familiar it's because she was deported from the US as a "unregistered foreign agent" (read: spy) after being in contact with among others the NRA and the Trump campaign.)
posted by Harald74 at 10:54 PM on August 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
(If the name is familiar it's because she was deported from the US as a "unregistered foreign agent" (read: spy) after being in contact with among others the NRA and the Trump campaign.)
posted by Harald74 at 10:54 PM on August 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
A couple of interesting Twitter threads:
1. From Trent Telenko on the logistics and unintended risks of unloading from trains to trucks. - further elaborated on by ChrisO here. - the crux of the matter seems to be that overloaded trucks carrying ammunition from trains to a local depot, leave tracks that can be followed on satellite imagery - to reveal the location of the depot. Also: a train carrying ammunition and being unloaded by a series of trucks - is a high value target.
2. ChrisO has also been posting a series of threads about Russian soldiers who refuse to fight in Ukraine (I'm linking to the 5th of these - which also references the earlier ones). In each draws heavily on the account of Viktor Shyaga, a soldier with the 752nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment who refused to fight on after his unit took heavy casualties at the village of Dovhen'ke east of Kharkiv back in May . The threads deals with why soldiers have been quitting and what happens when they do so - or attempt to do so.
posted by rongorongo at 11:55 PM on August 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
1. From Trent Telenko on the logistics and unintended risks of unloading from trains to trucks. - further elaborated on by ChrisO here. - the crux of the matter seems to be that overloaded trucks carrying ammunition from trains to a local depot, leave tracks that can be followed on satellite imagery - to reveal the location of the depot. Also: a train carrying ammunition and being unloaded by a series of trucks - is a high value target.
2. ChrisO has also been posting a series of threads about Russian soldiers who refuse to fight in Ukraine (I'm linking to the 5th of these - which also references the earlier ones). In each draws heavily on the account of Viktor Shyaga, a soldier with the 752nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment who refused to fight on after his unit took heavy casualties at the village of Dovhen'ke east of Kharkiv back in May . The threads deals with why soldiers have been quitting and what happens when they do so - or attempt to do so.
posted by rongorongo at 11:55 PM on August 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
A Russian ship was seen smoking on the horizon after an apparent drone strike yesterday and today we saw that one of the new Project 22160 ships limped into Sevastopol with extensive damage.
The Ukrainians also seem to have made progress in the battle around Izyum, one of the main Russian command centers in the east. Meanwhile after destroying a number of S400 and S300 air defense systems around Kherson in the last few days there are reports of some significant air missions being flow with one wing of 8-10 Ukrainian jets seen flying in formation on a mission. This increase in missions suggests that Ukraine has gained a near term air power advantage in Kherson and that should help them conduct offensive operations there soon.
Of course it isn’t all good news for Ukraine. The Russians apparently shelled some of the territory around Europes biggest nuclear plant. Russian forces have also been using the plant as a military base.
posted by interogative mood at 2:39 PM on August 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Ukrainians also seem to have made progress in the battle around Izyum, one of the main Russian command centers in the east. Meanwhile after destroying a number of S400 and S300 air defense systems around Kherson in the last few days there are reports of some significant air missions being flow with one wing of 8-10 Ukrainian jets seen flying in formation on a mission. This increase in missions suggests that Ukraine has gained a near term air power advantage in Kherson and that should help them conduct offensive operations there soon.
Of course it isn’t all good news for Ukraine. The Russians apparently shelled some of the territory around Europes biggest nuclear plant. Russian forces have also been using the plant as a military base.
posted by interogative mood at 2:39 PM on August 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
Bellingcat has an article that I found very interesting, about the process of tracking down the identities of the perpetrators of the recent war crimes videos of the POW mutilation and killing. It's about a gruesome subject, and has a description of the acts in a closed text box (so you have to click specifically on that to read it), but none of the images shown are NSFW and the article is about the process used to track down the identities of the perpetrators, validate locations, and so on.
Kind of amazingly, they were able to reach the guy on the phone and talk to him.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:30 PM on August 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Kind of amazingly, they were able to reach the guy on the phone and talk to him.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:30 PM on August 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Amnesty International is getting a lot of flak for blaming "both sides" for civilian casualties in Ukraine, including Zelensky himself. Amnesty International says the Ukrainian military has troops and equipment too close to civilian populations, drawing fire and putting civilian lives at risk. It's not the first time, either.
It seems like either a very antiquated or very modern idea - that wars can be fought by militaries on "the battlefield" without any collateral damage. I think the US has been propagating this PR-friendly idea for decades, with stories of "precision" strikes and fighting "cleanly". The reality of war is ugly.
Ukraine has taken up the idea of total defense - where it uses the sum of both its civilian and military forces, because it is fighting for its own survival. Martial law is in place; the civilian government has no power, people who can fight are banned from leaving the country. And there are stories of civilians giving information about the invaders to the military, as well as insurgent actions.
posted by meowzilla at 3:35 PM on August 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
It seems like either a very antiquated or very modern idea - that wars can be fought by militaries on "the battlefield" without any collateral damage. I think the US has been propagating this PR-friendly idea for decades, with stories of "precision" strikes and fighting "cleanly". The reality of war is ugly.
Ukraine has taken up the idea of total defense - where it uses the sum of both its civilian and military forces, because it is fighting for its own survival. Martial law is in place; the civilian government has no power, people who can fight are banned from leaving the country. And there are stories of civilians giving information about the invaders to the military, as well as insurgent actions.
posted by meowzilla at 3:35 PM on August 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
How does one defend a city while staying outside of the city anyway? You might as well demand Ukraine place their entire army on Snake Island so that they're a fair target for the invading army.
Civilian deaths should not be happening. There is one side in this conflict that can put an end to that tragedy today if they want to. That side is not Ukraine. Such a frustrating press release from Amnesty. If their goal is to stop Russian shelling of hospitals and schools, well, this certainly will achieve the opposite effect. What were they thinking?
posted by UN at 12:46 AM on August 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
Civilian deaths should not be happening. There is one side in this conflict that can put an end to that tragedy today if they want to. That side is not Ukraine. Such a frustrating press release from Amnesty. If their goal is to stop Russian shelling of hospitals and schools, well, this certainly will achieve the opposite effect. What were they thinking?
posted by UN at 12:46 AM on August 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
If their goal is to stop Russian shelling of hospitals and schools
I don't think it's fair to ask the UN or Amnesty International to not talk about actions they judge to be war crimes. They're reporting evidence of war crimes; their job isn't to try and be quiet about certain war crimes based on a guess as to how others will react.
I don't know what the standard here is, but this does seem pretty clearly over whatever line you'd care to draw: "Amnesty International researchers witnessed Ukrainian forces using hospitals as de facto military bases in five locations. In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals. In another town, soldiers were firing from near the hospital."
There's no real defense for that under humanitarian law- Russia being the aggressor doesn't mean the Ukrainian forces don't have legal obligations to not base forces in hospitals.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:36 AM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't think it's fair to ask the UN or Amnesty International to not talk about actions they judge to be war crimes. They're reporting evidence of war crimes; their job isn't to try and be quiet about certain war crimes based on a guess as to how others will react.
I don't know what the standard here is, but this does seem pretty clearly over whatever line you'd care to draw: "Amnesty International researchers witnessed Ukrainian forces using hospitals as de facto military bases in five locations. In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals. In another town, soldiers were firing from near the hospital."
There's no real defense for that under humanitarian law- Russia being the aggressor doesn't mean the Ukrainian forces don't have legal obligations to not base forces in hospitals.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:36 AM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't know what the legal obligations of an army protecting its people from genocide are, but I know there's a moral one. If the invading force is coming to exterminate a village, I will hold them to a different standard if they fire from hospital windows. If Amnesty has no legal framework to cover that situation, that's on them to change.
posted by UN at 1:40 PM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 1:40 PM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals.
You are aware that military casualties are often treated in hospitals, right? Resting, "milling around", and eating meals doesn't exactly sound like the war crime you're positing that it is. In fact, per Article 19:
You are aware that military casualties are often treated in hospitals, right? Resting, "milling around", and eating meals doesn't exactly sound like the war crime you're positing that it is. In fact, per Article 19:
The fact that sick or wounded members of the armed forces are nursed in these hospitals...shall not be considered to be acts harmful to the enemy.posted by corb at 1:47 PM on August 6, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'm willing to give Amnesty International the benefit of the doubt that they know the difference between wounded soldiers being treated in a hospital and non-wounded soldiers unnecessarily using the hospital facilities for their convenience without regard to whether or not that might make the hospitals a potential target for the enemy. I'm open to evidence that AI is wrong about this, but I'd want to see that evidence.
I think there's a completely reasonable argument that Ukraine, fighting a completely unjustified, unprovoked invasion of their own country is entitled to far more moral leeway in terms of how they conduct themselves, but at the same time Amnesty International shouldn't turn a blind eye towards times when the Ukrainians themselves unnecessarily put civilians at risk. Amnesty International's only real asset is their credibility.
It's fair to say that Ukraine is not at fault for being put in a position where they're desperate enough to cut corners in protecting civilians. I'd shrug and move on over this AI report rather than act outraged that AI is documenting how civilians are being hurt in the war.
Shouting about how AI has documented cases where the Ukrainian Military hasn't acted perfectly is potentially giving this report the Streisand Effect.
posted by Reverend John at 2:56 PM on August 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
I think there's a completely reasonable argument that Ukraine, fighting a completely unjustified, unprovoked invasion of their own country is entitled to far more moral leeway in terms of how they conduct themselves, but at the same time Amnesty International shouldn't turn a blind eye towards times when the Ukrainians themselves unnecessarily put civilians at risk. Amnesty International's only real asset is their credibility.
It's fair to say that Ukraine is not at fault for being put in a position where they're desperate enough to cut corners in protecting civilians. I'd shrug and move on over this AI report rather than act outraged that AI is documenting how civilians are being hurt in the war.
Shouting about how AI has documented cases where the Ukrainian Military hasn't acted perfectly is potentially giving this report the Streisand Effect.
posted by Reverend John at 2:56 PM on August 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Some war crimes might be moral in some situations. Certainly lots of normal crimes can be moral.
I think that's a judgement that Amnesty International isn't really equipped to make though. They do have expertise in evaluating allegations of war crimes, and I think it's up to us to make our own judgements about how harshly to judge Ukraine (and Russia) for them.
I had a quick Google and saw that Amnesty did spend quite a lot of time insisting that it didn't see any evidence that Hamas had used human shields in a recent conflict. Would they be credible on that if they were known to sit on reports of similar war crimes? Probably not. There's value in the way Amnesty does things.
This all assumes they have their facts and analysis correct. I'm really not able to judge any of that myself. If they got the facts of this wrong then that's a huge problem.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:04 PM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think that's a judgement that Amnesty International isn't really equipped to make though. They do have expertise in evaluating allegations of war crimes, and I think it's up to us to make our own judgements about how harshly to judge Ukraine (and Russia) for them.
I had a quick Google and saw that Amnesty did spend quite a lot of time insisting that it didn't see any evidence that Hamas had used human shields in a recent conflict. Would they be credible on that if they were known to sit on reports of similar war crimes? Probably not. There's value in the way Amnesty does things.
This all assumes they have their facts and analysis correct. I'm really not able to judge any of that myself. If they got the facts of this wrong then that's a huge problem.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:04 PM on August 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't know what the standard here is, but this does seem pretty clearly over whatever line you'd care to draw: "Amnesty International researchers witnessed Ukrainian forces using hospitals as de facto military bases in five locations. In two towns, dozens of soldiers were resting, milling about, and eating meals in hospitals. In another town, soldiers were firing from near the hospital."
There's no real defense for that under humanitarian law- Russia being the aggressor doesn't mean the Ukrainian forces don't have legal obligations to not base forces in hospitals.
Soldiers are allowed to be in hospitals. And when they are defending against an aggressor who has been verifiably attacking hospitals in this very conflict, then yeah, it is defensible -- both morally and legally -- to base forces close enough to hospitals that they could be described as "near" them.
posted by Etrigan at 6:31 PM on August 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
There's no real defense for that under humanitarian law- Russia being the aggressor doesn't mean the Ukrainian forces don't have legal obligations to not base forces in hospitals.
Soldiers are allowed to be in hospitals. And when they are defending against an aggressor who has been verifiably attacking hospitals in this very conflict, then yeah, it is defensible -- both morally and legally -- to base forces close enough to hospitals that they could be described as "near" them.
posted by Etrigan at 6:31 PM on August 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
it's like the Jay walking of "war crimes".
Just have to remind people.
Russia's 226 attacks on health-care targets in Ukraine are part of a larger pattern
-May 24, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 7:51 PM on August 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Just have to remind people.
Russia's 226 attacks on health-care targets in Ukraine are part of a larger pattern
-May 24, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 7:51 PM on August 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
I think there's a difference between specifically protecting a hospital and using a hospital as a convenient base that has a lot of the resources that a military unit might find useful like food and food preparation facilities, beds for resting, showers, etc. I'd give AI the benefit of the doubt that they can tell the difference.
Unless the Ukrainians have a good reason to believe that a hospital will be a specific target of the Russians even if Ukrainian troops aren't there, and they are making specific preparations to protect the hospital from attack like setting up air defenses, then their presence in the hospital is not about defending the hospital per se and their presence only makes it more likely to be a target.
It is perfectly reasonable to shrug and ignore AI's report because the Ukrainians have been put in an impossible position where the needs of the military, which is fighting to protect the country as a whole, are superseding the needs of the local civilian populations and institutions. We should place the blame for the situation squarely on the Russians.
However, to the degree that the Ukrainians do have some choice where to base their troops without compromising their effectiveness, then they ought to avoid hospitals and civilian areas. It is not wrong for Amnesty International to point that out, and unless you have specific reason to think AI has made a factual mistake about what is going on in these places, I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The Ukrainians also deserve the benefit of the doubt that these sorts of mistakes are not out of any intent to put their own civilians at risk, and in an ideal world there wouldn't be Russians in their country shooting at them and trying to take their country over, civilians, hospitals, and all.
But it doesn't make sense to attack AI as the bearer of bad news.
posted by Reverend John at 7:58 PM on August 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Unless the Ukrainians have a good reason to believe that a hospital will be a specific target of the Russians even if Ukrainian troops aren't there, and they are making specific preparations to protect the hospital from attack like setting up air defenses, then their presence in the hospital is not about defending the hospital per se and their presence only makes it more likely to be a target.
It is perfectly reasonable to shrug and ignore AI's report because the Ukrainians have been put in an impossible position where the needs of the military, which is fighting to protect the country as a whole, are superseding the needs of the local civilian populations and institutions. We should place the blame for the situation squarely on the Russians.
However, to the degree that the Ukrainians do have some choice where to base their troops without compromising their effectiveness, then they ought to avoid hospitals and civilian areas. It is not wrong for Amnesty International to point that out, and unless you have specific reason to think AI has made a factual mistake about what is going on in these places, I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The Ukrainians also deserve the benefit of the doubt that these sorts of mistakes are not out of any intent to put their own civilians at risk, and in an ideal world there wouldn't be Russians in their country shooting at them and trying to take their country over, civilians, hospitals, and all.
But it doesn't make sense to attack AI as the bearer of bad news.
posted by Reverend John at 7:58 PM on August 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
The whole reason Amnesty International exists is to judge, not to be the bearer of bad news. The literal point of their existence is to say “this thing is bad” when others have already said it is happening.
…so, not to say “this thing exists” but rather “this thing which exists is bad”
So, from their perspective, defending yourself against evil is exactly as evil as being the attackers. You could give up, and maybe fewer would die! By defending yourself you’re killing people! If you surrender, fewer people will die, which is objectively good, so you’re probably a monster for not surrendering.
posted by aramaic at 8:25 PM on August 6, 2022
…so, not to say “this thing exists” but rather “this thing which exists is bad”
So, from their perspective, defending yourself against evil is exactly as evil as being the attackers. You could give up, and maybe fewer would die! By defending yourself you’re killing people! If you surrender, fewer people will die, which is objectively good, so you’re probably a monster for not surrendering.
posted by aramaic at 8:25 PM on August 6, 2022
I think that the Amnesty International Report is not helpful to AI or its causes. It has generated a significant backlash against the organization and widespread criticism. I don’t see how the organization will be able to continue in its mission without a change in leadership.
posted by interogative mood at 8:36 PM on August 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:36 PM on August 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
unless you have specific reason to think AI has made a factual mistake
A member of my family is currently fighting in the International Legion alongside the Ukrainian military. I believe Amnesty International is absolutely making a factual mistake and that it comes both from a desire to have their report appear more credible because they are pointing at “both sides”, and from a specific tendency of a specific sector on the left to think poorly of Ukraine because the United States is backing them. It is not the first time their reports have been skewed in this way.
posted by corb at 2:09 AM on August 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
A member of my family is currently fighting in the International Legion alongside the Ukrainian military. I believe Amnesty International is absolutely making a factual mistake and that it comes both from a desire to have their report appear more credible because they are pointing at “both sides”, and from a specific tendency of a specific sector on the left to think poorly of Ukraine because the United States is backing them. It is not the first time their reports have been skewed in this way.
posted by corb at 2:09 AM on August 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
Retired generals Hertling (US Army) and Ryan (Australian Army, linked from the first thread), have some thoughts on how the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces have adapted so far during the invasion. Some interesting articles from elsewhere are also linked in the threads.
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on August 7, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on August 7, 2022
I don't know enough about AI to judge their motives or reporting. But all sides in all wars will have and use methods that result in war crimes. Civilians die in all wars. Two war crimes don't make a right, of course. Bad is bad, war is a terrible waste and a crime in of itself.
But. Russia commits war crimes as their primary method of waging war. There is no differentiation between fighting in a city, leveling that city, deliberately targeting civilians and refugees, purposefully using atomic facilities as shields, deliberately destroying and denying things like power, water, food production, basic infrastructure. They don't hesitate to terrorize, kidnap, murder, and attempt pure genocide on civilians in territory that captured. Russia murders prisoners.
Ukraine has almost certainly and will commit war crimes in the course of their defensive war. All armies at war do. That should never be discounted, never papered over or ignored. Each and every one should be recorded, punishments lawfully assigned if applicable.
But Russia commits crime against humanity as a strategy, tactic, plan. A goal in of itself. I have zero doubts about their willingness to murder every civilian in their path if need be. There is no possible comparison.
posted by Jacen at 4:07 AM on August 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
But. Russia commits war crimes as their primary method of waging war. There is no differentiation between fighting in a city, leveling that city, deliberately targeting civilians and refugees, purposefully using atomic facilities as shields, deliberately destroying and denying things like power, water, food production, basic infrastructure. They don't hesitate to terrorize, kidnap, murder, and attempt pure genocide on civilians in territory that captured. Russia murders prisoners.
Ukraine has almost certainly and will commit war crimes in the course of their defensive war. All armies at war do. That should never be discounted, never papered over or ignored. Each and every one should be recorded, punishments lawfully assigned if applicable.
But Russia commits crime against humanity as a strategy, tactic, plan. A goal in of itself. I have zero doubts about their willingness to murder every civilian in their path if need be. There is no possible comparison.
posted by Jacen at 4:07 AM on August 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
However, to the degree that the Ukrainians do have some choice where to base their troops without compromising their effectiveness, then they ought to avoid hospitals and civilian areas.
The reason that hospitals and civilian areas are "avoided" under international wartime law is because of the presumption that the other side will not target them. That's why it's expressly not illegal to base soldiers in hospitals (for instance, medical military personnel exist and are allowed to carry weapons, even in expressly medical areas that have big red crosses on them) -- the prohibition is against basing soldiers in hospitals for perfidious purposes, e.g., so the enemy won't attack them. Russia has broken that covenant several times over. It's not a matter of two wrongs not making a right, it's a matter of Wrong #2 only being a wrong because Wrong #1 is being observed.
If the two sides had an agreement beforehand that soccer stadiums were off-limits, then one side blowing up a soccer stadium means that they don't get to cry foul (or let someone else cry foul on their behalf) when the other side sends troops to secure the soccer stadium in the next town over. And they damn sure don't get to cry foul (olsecfotb) when the only evidence of "militarizing soccer stadiums" is seeing someone shooting near a soccer stadium.
posted by Etrigan at 8:08 AM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
The reason that hospitals and civilian areas are "avoided" under international wartime law is because of the presumption that the other side will not target them. That's why it's expressly not illegal to base soldiers in hospitals (for instance, medical military personnel exist and are allowed to carry weapons, even in expressly medical areas that have big red crosses on them) -- the prohibition is against basing soldiers in hospitals for perfidious purposes, e.g., so the enemy won't attack them. Russia has broken that covenant several times over. It's not a matter of two wrongs not making a right, it's a matter of Wrong #2 only being a wrong because Wrong #1 is being observed.
If the two sides had an agreement beforehand that soccer stadiums were off-limits, then one side blowing up a soccer stadium means that they don't get to cry foul (or let someone else cry foul on their behalf) when the other side sends troops to secure the soccer stadium in the next town over. And they damn sure don't get to cry foul (olsecfotb) when the only evidence of "militarizing soccer stadiums" is seeing someone shooting near a soccer stadium.
posted by Etrigan at 8:08 AM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
Amnesty International also responded today to one of their board members calling the Russian occupation a civil war in eastern Ukraine.
posted by mbrubeck at 8:08 AM on August 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 8:08 AM on August 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
Unless the Ukrainians have a good reason to believe that a hospital will be a specific target of the Russians even if Ukrainian troops aren't there
1. Is it a hospital?
2. If Y, then it will be a target.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:31 AM on August 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
1. Is it a hospital?
2. If Y, then it will be a target.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:31 AM on August 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
And as to schools, in the war zone, those are just empty buildings. School ain't in session on the front lines.
posted by ryanrs at 9:22 AM on August 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:22 AM on August 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The whole reason Amnesty International exists is to judge, not to be the bearer of bad news. The literal point of their existence is to say “this thing is bad” when others have already said it is happening.
…so, not to say “this thing exists” but rather “this thing which exists is bad”
So, from their perspective, defending yourself against evil is exactly as evil as being the attackers. You could give up, and maybe fewer would die! By defending yourself you’re killing people! If you surrender, fewer people will die, which is objectively good, so you’re probably a monster for not surrendering.
This is wrong in several ways. First, if you read AI’s statement you’d see that they absolutely have been performing an investigative role. They are not just judging what others have said is happening. Second, AI is not saying Ukraine should give up or surrender, they’re saying they should move their troops out of civilian areas or evacuate civilians.
It might be worth taking a second to read what Amnesty International actually said.
A member of my family is currently fighting in the International Legion alongside the Ukrainian military. I believe Amnesty International is absolutely making a factual mistake and that it comes both from a desire to have their report appear more credible because they are pointing at “both sides”, and from a specific tendency of a specific sector on the left to think poorly of Ukraine because the United States is backing them. It is not the first time their reports have been skewed in this way.
Corb, I admire the hell out of you and your family member, and again, I think the Ukrainians haven’t done anything fundamentally wrong under the circumstances, but saying that AI has made factual mistakes because you have family fighting in Ukraine is just a plain non-sequitur. The credibility of their report derives from the fact that they have sent people there to investigate and they are reporting what they found. I don’t think AI would report war crimes which didn’t actually happen. If they did it would destroy their credibility. They have been far, far more critical of the Russians than this one report criticizing the Ukrainians. I don’t see any evidence that AI has an agenda to undermine the US in this report. If there is any evidence that they've made a mistake, or even worse have falsified their evidence, then I stand fully ready to join their critics, as I'm sure many of their other supporters would as well.
Ukraine has almost certainly and will commit war crimes in the course of their defensive war. All armies at war do. That should never be discounted, never papered over or ignored. Each and every one should be recorded, punishments lawfully assigned if applicable.
This is well said, and the crux of why it makes no sense to criticize AI.
I completely sympathize with Ukraine in this matter, and lay the lion’s share of the blame at Russia’s feet. Having said that, we shouldn’t close our eyes to the evidence of possible war crimes being committed by Ukrainian troops. Respect for democracy, human rights, and basic morality is what makes Ukraine worth supporting and fighting for. Criticizing AI for documenting war crimes both runs contrary to the reasons we support Ukraine and also serves to amplify the difficult facts we’d prefer not to need to explain right now for legitimate propaganda purposes.
I’m going to bow out of this particular tangent. I think I’ve said all I have to say.
posted by Reverend John at 10:18 AM on August 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
…so, not to say “this thing exists” but rather “this thing which exists is bad”
So, from their perspective, defending yourself against evil is exactly as evil as being the attackers. You could give up, and maybe fewer would die! By defending yourself you’re killing people! If you surrender, fewer people will die, which is objectively good, so you’re probably a monster for not surrendering.
This is wrong in several ways. First, if you read AI’s statement you’d see that they absolutely have been performing an investigative role. They are not just judging what others have said is happening. Second, AI is not saying Ukraine should give up or surrender, they’re saying they should move their troops out of civilian areas or evacuate civilians.
It might be worth taking a second to read what Amnesty International actually said.
Between April and July, Amnesty International researchers spent several weeks investigating Russian strikes in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Mykolaiv regions. The organization inspected strike sites; interviewed survivors, witnesses and relatives of victims of attacks; and carried out remote-sensing and weapons analysis.
Throughout these investigations, researchers found evidence of Ukrainian forces launching strikes from within populated residential areas as well as basing themselves in civilian buildings in 19 towns and villages in the regions.
Most residential areas where soldiers located themselves were kilometres away from front lines. Viable alternatives were available that would not endanger civilians – such as military bases or densely wooded areas nearby, or other structures further away from residential areas. In the cases it documented, Amnesty International is not aware that the Ukrainian military who located themselves in civilian structures in residential areas asked or assisted civilians to evacuate nearby buildings – a failure to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians.
A member of my family is currently fighting in the International Legion alongside the Ukrainian military. I believe Amnesty International is absolutely making a factual mistake and that it comes both from a desire to have their report appear more credible because they are pointing at “both sides”, and from a specific tendency of a specific sector on the left to think poorly of Ukraine because the United States is backing them. It is not the first time their reports have been skewed in this way.
Corb, I admire the hell out of you and your family member, and again, I think the Ukrainians haven’t done anything fundamentally wrong under the circumstances, but saying that AI has made factual mistakes because you have family fighting in Ukraine is just a plain non-sequitur. The credibility of their report derives from the fact that they have sent people there to investigate and they are reporting what they found. I don’t think AI would report war crimes which didn’t actually happen. If they did it would destroy their credibility. They have been far, far more critical of the Russians than this one report criticizing the Ukrainians. I don’t see any evidence that AI has an agenda to undermine the US in this report. If there is any evidence that they've made a mistake, or even worse have falsified their evidence, then I stand fully ready to join their critics, as I'm sure many of their other supporters would as well.
Ukraine has almost certainly and will commit war crimes in the course of their defensive war. All armies at war do. That should never be discounted, never papered over or ignored. Each and every one should be recorded, punishments lawfully assigned if applicable.
This is well said, and the crux of why it makes no sense to criticize AI.
I completely sympathize with Ukraine in this matter, and lay the lion’s share of the blame at Russia’s feet. Having said that, we shouldn’t close our eyes to the evidence of possible war crimes being committed by Ukrainian troops. Respect for democracy, human rights, and basic morality is what makes Ukraine worth supporting and fighting for. Criticizing AI for documenting war crimes both runs contrary to the reasons we support Ukraine and also serves to amplify the difficult facts we’d prefer not to need to explain right now for legitimate propaganda purposes.
I’m going to bow out of this particular tangent. I think I’ve said all I have to say.
posted by Reverend John at 10:18 AM on August 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine has almost certainly and will commit war crimes in the course of their defensive war. All armies at war do. That should never be discounted, never papered over or ignored. Each and every one should be recorded, punishments lawfully assigned if applicable.
This is well said, and the crux of why it makes no sense to criticize AI.
Tell you what. Let's have someone come to your town, wage a war of annihilation, and put it under siege and let's see how you feel about your capacity to commit war crimes then.
If a Russian doesn't want to participate in the war they can leave. If a Ukrainian doesn't want to fight in the war they have no choice. They have nowhere to run to. Amnesty are useful fucking idiots for fascist imperialists that are allowing Russia to point at that god forsaken report every time they bomb a fucking hospital with "AMENSTY PROVES THAT UKRAINIANS USE THEM AS A BASE!"
If someone is fighting defensive total war they get some fucking slack on when, where, and how they fight the enemy.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:19 AM on August 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is well said, and the crux of why it makes no sense to criticize AI.
Tell you what. Let's have someone come to your town, wage a war of annihilation, and put it under siege and let's see how you feel about your capacity to commit war crimes then.
If a Russian doesn't want to participate in the war they can leave. If a Ukrainian doesn't want to fight in the war they have no choice. They have nowhere to run to. Amnesty are useful fucking idiots for fascist imperialists that are allowing Russia to point at that god forsaken report every time they bomb a fucking hospital with "AMENSTY PROVES THAT UKRAINIANS USE THEM AS A BASE!"
If someone is fighting defensive total war they get some fucking slack on when, where, and how they fight the enemy.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:19 AM on August 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
Shouting about how AI has documented cases where the Ukrainian Military hasn't acted perfectly is potentially giving this report the Streisand Effect.
Also, what is this? Whether or not somebody Streisand Effects this report is completely irrelevant because the Russians are going to do it themselves from the floor of the UNSC every time they level a Ukrainian city and are called to account for it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:25 AM on August 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, what is this? Whether or not somebody Streisand Effects this report is completely irrelevant because the Russians are going to do it themselves from the floor of the UNSC every time they level a Ukrainian city and are called to account for it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:25 AM on August 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
If someone is fighting defensive total war they get some fucking slack on when, where, and how they fight the enemy
The point that's being made isn't that the Ukrainian army is committing crimes against the enemy, though. Ukraine is fighting for two reasons: to protect its independence, and to protect its people's lives. The report is saying that the army is committing own goals against the very people it's trying to protect, and that in the cases that AI investigated it believed there were alternatives to doing that. This isn't about giving an army slack on the damage it inflicts against an enemy- this is about the need "to take all feasible precautions to protect [Ukrainian] civilians".
Let's have someone come to your town, wage a war of annihilation, and put it under siege and let's see how you feel about your capacity to commit war crimes then.
Having some personal experience with a (thankfully way less destructive) version of this situation, I'll say that if a choice exists between my country's army launching rockets from my street versus from a base or unpopulated area a few miles away, I'd prefer the latter option, all things considered. I would feel more endangered by the former.
That said, the same personal experience makes it easy for me to understand why passions are so high against this report. It doesn't make it incorrect, though.
posted by trig at 12:34 PM on August 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
The point that's being made isn't that the Ukrainian army is committing crimes against the enemy, though. Ukraine is fighting for two reasons: to protect its independence, and to protect its people's lives. The report is saying that the army is committing own goals against the very people it's trying to protect, and that in the cases that AI investigated it believed there were alternatives to doing that. This isn't about giving an army slack on the damage it inflicts against an enemy- this is about the need "to take all feasible precautions to protect [Ukrainian] civilians".
Let's have someone come to your town, wage a war of annihilation, and put it under siege and let's see how you feel about your capacity to commit war crimes then.
Having some personal experience with a (thankfully way less destructive) version of this situation, I'll say that if a choice exists between my country's army launching rockets from my street versus from a base or unpopulated area a few miles away, I'd prefer the latter option, all things considered. I would feel more endangered by the former.
That said, the same personal experience makes it easy for me to understand why passions are so high against this report. It doesn't make it incorrect, though.
posted by trig at 12:34 PM on August 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
It should be noted that, within Amnesty International, there is disagreement on this report. The head of the Ukrainian branch quit in protest (as has been widely reported in the news).
"If you don't live in a country invaded by occupiers who are tearing it to pieces, you probably don't understand what it's like to condemn an army of defenders," Oksana Pokalchuk said on Facebook, announcing her resignation late on August 5.
"And there are no words in any language that can convey this to someone who has not experienced this pain."
Pokalchuk said she had tried to warn Amnesty's senior leadership that the report was one-sided and failed to properly take into account the Ukrainian position, but she was ignored.
posted by UN at 1:23 PM on August 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
"If you don't live in a country invaded by occupiers who are tearing it to pieces, you probably don't understand what it's like to condemn an army of defenders," Oksana Pokalchuk said on Facebook, announcing her resignation late on August 5.
"And there are no words in any language that can convey this to someone who has not experienced this pain."
Pokalchuk said she had tried to warn Amnesty's senior leadership that the report was one-sided and failed to properly take into account the Ukrainian position, but she was ignored.
posted by UN at 1:23 PM on August 7, 2022 [16 favorites]
I Agree. I dont think anyone is really saying the Shirley McLane "....WELL" and dismissing the report out right. I see a consensus that while it might be a problem, it's one that is almost unavoidable. Has Ukraine nationalized or militarized their hospitals? AI doesn't have much of a case if it's a military institution housing civilans during war.
posted by clavdivs at 1:33 PM on August 7, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 1:33 PM on August 7, 2022
Ultimately it comes down to liberalism wanting to be correct more than it wants to do what's right. Ask it to make a pragmatic value judgement it'll just clutch its pearls like you just suggested anarchy.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:36 PM on August 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:36 PM on August 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
The AI report is receiving a lot of criticism in Europe. Here is a report translated from a Danish newspaper. Another from an Italian journalist. The Times has also condemned it in a editorial.
posted by interogative mood at 3:24 PM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:24 PM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
CBS has pulled a documentary they were preparing to air that was produced in partnership with Amnesty International after serious questions were raised by independent parties about some of the more sensationalist claims in the report.
posted by interogative mood at 7:09 PM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:09 PM on August 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
Note that one of the authors of the Ukraine report, Donatella Rovera, was the very same Amnesty person who appeared in the CBS report, mysteriously having become an expert in the transport of weaponry in Ukraine as well. Reporters who were with her in Ukraine are not impressed. Really not impressed.
posted by tavella at 12:19 AM on August 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by tavella at 12:19 AM on August 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm still unclear on why an army in the field should provide a third party an account of where all weapons received in aid have ended up. And of course they're not all at the front, Ukraine is currently training and mobilizing and keeping forces in reserve and those forces need equipment, and they are actually doing really well on the operational security side too.
posted by Harald74 at 2:10 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:10 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'd have loved to be a fly on the wall at the fateful meeting where this decision was made.....
"hey I was thinking - why don't you give me a bunch of money and I'll fly into Ukraine looking for war crimes - but WAIT, there's a TWIST! We'll look for UKRAINIAN War crimes!!! Brilliant right!?!"
"See, this is why we pay you the big bucks! Send me your report as soon as possible, we've got a big fundraising drive coming up, this will be exactly what we need to replenish our coffers!"
posted by some loser at 3:57 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
"hey I was thinking - why don't you give me a bunch of money and I'll fly into Ukraine looking for war crimes - but WAIT, there's a TWIST! We'll look for UKRAINIAN War crimes!!! Brilliant right!?!"
"See, this is why we pay you the big bucks! Send me your report as soon as possible, we've got a big fundraising drive coming up, this will be exactly what we need to replenish our coffers!"
posted by some loser at 3:57 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
And as to schools, in the war zone, those are just empty buildings. School ain't in session on the front lines.
The author of the report is on twitter posting articles about Ukrainian army using schools as shelter, in her defense. Same article mentions that the schools have been closed since the start of the invasion.
Saying that schools are being used strongly implies there are children involved. But there aren't.
The Ukrainian government helped in sending women, children and elderly out of the country since the start of the invasion. I've met a number of them. Some were in the town square yesterday afternoon fundraising for the Ukrainian Army. My spouse, who has been organizing help for refugees, has met many who were returning to Ukraine — many because they felt they need to help the war effort. A group were selling their crafts to raise funds to (successfully) purchase trucks for the Army. They were returning to Ukraine for a visit. Ukrainian teenage boys were spending the night at the train station helping families on arrival.
AI is claiming that 'self-censorship' is the reason people are not publicity complaining about the Ukrainian Army. The Secretary General of Amnesty International has called Ukrainian critics 'trolls'. They see Ukrainians as people afraid to speak up, too scared to voice their opinion. I'm not in Ukraine but, if that was true, it would surely shatter my perception of the situation. These are not people afraid to speak their mind. They (AI) would have to present more evidence of their findings.
posted by UN at 4:25 AM on August 8, 2022 [19 favorites]
The author of the report is on twitter posting articles about Ukrainian army using schools as shelter, in her defense. Same article mentions that the schools have been closed since the start of the invasion.
Saying that schools are being used strongly implies there are children involved. But there aren't.
The Ukrainian government helped in sending women, children and elderly out of the country since the start of the invasion. I've met a number of them. Some were in the town square yesterday afternoon fundraising for the Ukrainian Army. My spouse, who has been organizing help for refugees, has met many who were returning to Ukraine — many because they felt they need to help the war effort. A group were selling their crafts to raise funds to (successfully) purchase trucks for the Army. They were returning to Ukraine for a visit. Ukrainian teenage boys were spending the night at the train station helping families on arrival.
AI is claiming that 'self-censorship' is the reason people are not publicity complaining about the Ukrainian Army. The Secretary General of Amnesty International has called Ukrainian critics 'trolls'. They see Ukrainians as people afraid to speak up, too scared to voice their opinion. I'm not in Ukraine but, if that was true, it would surely shatter my perception of the situation. These are not people afraid to speak their mind. They (AI) would have to present more evidence of their findings.
posted by UN at 4:25 AM on August 8, 2022 [19 favorites]
Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman interviewing Sergii Grabskyi (Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military) on Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive (53 min long podcast interview): Slicing the Sausage: Ukraine’s Upcoming Counteroffensive.
Around the 46th minute, they discuss the coordination problems between the different parts of the Russian army and claim that Ukraine will probably face similar issues when doing offensive operations. According to Grabskyi, for the Ukrainians, this is partly due to the fact that since 92'(?) they were only practising defensive scenarios in war exercises.
Starting at 47:40 they discuss the heavy losses on the eastern front. Grabskyi claims that in the east they deploy the Territorial Defense forces on the first line of contact instead of the regular army. He explicitly claims:
Around the 46th minute, they discuss the coordination problems between the different parts of the Russian army and claim that Ukraine will probably face similar issues when doing offensive operations. According to Grabskyi, for the Ukrainians, this is partly due to the fact that since 92'(?) they were only practising defensive scenarios in war exercises.
Starting at 47:40 they discuss the heavy losses on the eastern front. Grabskyi claims that in the east they deploy the Territorial Defense forces on the first line of contact instead of the regular army. He explicitly claims:
"We do not send there, deploy there, like the real troops. And we use there like so called marching battalions of Territorial Defense troops and they got a lot of losses there."posted by kmt at 5:50 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Starting at 47:40 they discuss the heavy losses on the eastern front. Grabskyi claims that in the east they deploy the Territorial Defense forces on the first line of contact instead of the regular army. He explicitly claims:
Not surprising. The line of contact is over 250 miles long on the eastern front. There's nowhere near enough regular trained soldiers to man the entire front.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:04 AM on August 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not surprising. The line of contact is over 250 miles long on the eastern front. There's nowhere near enough regular trained soldiers to man the entire front.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:04 AM on August 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
And holding a static position is probably simpler for soldiers with limited training, while you can use your regulars for more complicated maneuvers.
posted by tavella at 10:55 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by tavella at 10:55 AM on August 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
A witness to the drafting of AI’s report speaks out about the problems that were obvious from the beginning with their approach and methodology.
posted by interogative mood at 7:05 PM on August 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:05 PM on August 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels report 7 explosions at a military airport in Novofedorovka, Crimea. Videos show huge explosions. (Rob Lee also posting the videos)
posted by kmt at 6:38 AM on August 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by kmt at 6:38 AM on August 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Possibly sabotage, since the Ukrainian ministry of defence has issued a warning against smoking. Crimean tourists are apparently fleeing in droves. Ukrainian and Polish twitter is having quite the giggle fit.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:19 AM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:19 AM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
This, together with the sudden appearance of anti-radiation missiles*? Certainly seems like the Ukrainians have some aces up their sleeve.
*) As in missile homing on the radiation emitted from radar installations. An expensive and complex bit of kit that is a game-changer when trying to do offensive air operations against an enemy with anti-air defences.
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 AM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
*) As in missile homing on the radiation emitted from radar installations. An expensive and complex bit of kit that is a game-changer when trying to do offensive air operations against an enemy with anti-air defences.
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 AM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
IIRC, the longest range Ukrainian missile we know about has an 80km range.
Speculation is that this could have been a prototype Grom-2 ballistic missle. [more].
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:53 PM on August 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
Speculation is that this could have been a prototype Grom-2 ballistic missle. [more].
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:53 PM on August 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
Video starting to show up on telegram of the damage from the explosions at the Russian airbase in Crimea today. Apartment buildings with windows blown out more than a kilometer away, many cars in the parking lot next to the airfield seem to have suffered damage from shrapnel and fire. At least 4 aircraft confirmed to be destroyed.
There is a massive traffic jam on the Kerch bridge as Russian vacationers are leaving Crimea.
Russia is claiming that this was an accident caused by unsafe handling of some ordinance. Ukraine trolling Russia suggesting that there is an extreme fire danger in Crimea right now and they should be careful. The US issued a statement that their position is that Crimea is part of Ukraine and therefore Ukraine doesn’t require pre-approval to use US provided rockets to attack targets.
posted by interogative mood at 3:04 PM on August 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
There is a massive traffic jam on the Kerch bridge as Russian vacationers are leaving Crimea.
Russia is claiming that this was an accident caused by unsafe handling of some ordinance. Ukraine trolling Russia suggesting that there is an extreme fire danger in Crimea right now and they should be careful. The US issued a statement that their position is that Crimea is part of Ukraine and therefore Ukraine doesn’t require pre-approval to use US provided rockets to attack targets.
posted by interogative mood at 3:04 PM on August 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
So they're going with the same playbook as the Moskva sinking? A random fire, completely unrelated to the "special military operation" nearby?
This is like how critics of the Russian government regularly keep falling out of windows.
posted by meowzilla at 8:49 PM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is like how critics of the Russian government regularly keep falling out of windows.
posted by meowzilla at 8:49 PM on August 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Multiple random fires.
Multiple random, simultaneous fires.
posted by Flunkie at 9:14 PM on August 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Multiple random, simultaneous fires.
posted by Flunkie at 9:14 PM on August 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Russian authorities are getting real whiny about the proposed visa bans. They were even quoted as using the phrase "human rights" in the linked TASS article.
posted by Harald74 at 5:51 AM on August 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 5:51 AM on August 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ivan Timofeev gives five reasons why the sanctions on Russia won't be lifted in the foreseeable future: Is It Possible to Lift Sanctions Against Russia? — No
Every conflict sooner or later ends in peace. Such is the conventional wisdom that can often be heard from those who, amid the current situation of the sanctions tsunami and confrontation with the West, are trying to find hope for a return to "normality". The logic of such wisdom is simple. At some point, the parties will cease fire and sit down at the negotiating table. The end of hostilities will lead to a gradual reduction in sanctions pressure on Russia, and our businesses will be able to return to work with Western partners.posted by kmt at 7:22 AM on August 10, 2022
We have to disappoint those who believe in such a prospect. Sanctions against Russia, for the most part, will not be lifted even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine and a peace agreement. There will be no return to "pre-February normality". Instead of remembering a lost past, we will have to focus on creating a new future in which Western sanctions remain a constant variable.
We have to disappoint those who believe in such a prospect. Sanctions against Russia, for the most part, will not be lifted even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine and a peace agreement.
Every sentence in that essay could have ended with "Unless, of course, Russia completely removes its troops from Ukraine." [But it's otherwise agreeable, if one ignores the elephant in the room]
posted by UN at 9:34 AM on August 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Every sentence in that essay could have ended with "Unless, of course, Russia completely removes its troops from Ukraine." [But it's otherwise agreeable, if one ignores the elephant in the room]
posted by UN at 9:34 AM on August 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
More testimony about what a total clown Donatella Rovera is: a third journalist talks about his encounters with her, where she argued with combat veteran Royal Marines and French Legionnaires that she had more military knowledge, and then mixed up mortars and artillery, while insisting that things that the journalists had witnessed and she had not had to be false. Neil Hauer also expands on his experience with her.
I don't know why Amnesty decided to throw away their honor and reputation to support aggressors that rape children, torture and murder prisoners, level cities and seek to execute genocide, but they have, and they are dead to me forever.
posted by tavella at 9:55 AM on August 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
I don't know why Amnesty decided to throw away their honor and reputation to support aggressors that rape children, torture and murder prisoners, level cities and seek to execute genocide, but they have, and they are dead to me forever.
posted by tavella at 9:55 AM on August 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
re: the Russian International Affairs Council article.
Quite a feat to write a thousand words about sanctions against Russia without using the word "war" even once.
posted by ButteryMales at 10:00 AM on August 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Quite a feat to write a thousand words about sanctions against Russia without using the word "war" even once.
posted by ButteryMales at 10:00 AM on August 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Every sentence in that essay could have ended with "Unless, of course, Russia completely removes its troops from Ukraine."
I think he's going for "the West will never give us a break because it inherently wants to suppress Russia regardless of what we do, so we might as well keep fighting and anyway we can just adapt by aligning with other authoritarian countries, so no need to worry and definitely not to question Russia's policies."
This is an article published by a Russian think tank established by the Russian government. The author is also part of another Putin-associated think tank. Read the article as "here's a current propaganda approach", not as an objective assessment.
posted by trig at 10:14 AM on August 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
I think he's going for "the West will never give us a break because it inherently wants to suppress Russia regardless of what we do, so we might as well keep fighting and anyway we can just adapt by aligning with other authoritarian countries, so no need to worry and definitely not to question Russia's policies."
This is an article published by a Russian think tank established by the Russian government. The author is also part of another Putin-associated think tank. Read the article as "here's a current propaganda approach", not as an objective assessment.
posted by trig at 10:14 AM on August 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
(Kind of funny that he points to the Trump administration's treatment of Iran as evidence that you can't please the West, given that Russia has not exactly been unsupportive of the Republican approach to foreign policy.)
posted by trig at 10:18 AM on August 10, 2022
posted by trig at 10:18 AM on August 10, 2022
Presumptuous to assume that Russia and/or the West plus their relationships will still exist as they do today when this war ends.
posted by interogative mood at 10:22 AM on August 10, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 10:22 AM on August 10, 2022
Elliot Higgins of Bellingcat is posting some before and after aerial shots of the damage at the bombed airbase (emerging thread). Looks like serious destruction in some places, including precision targeting of specific buildings, etc.
posted by Rumple at 12:01 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Rumple at 12:01 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
An even more potentially damning criticism of the report is that some of the interviews used may have been of individuals held in filtration camps. While this has not been verified, the longer it goes without a fierce and comprehensive denial by Amnesty, the greater suspicion it may be true.
posted by tavella at 12:39 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by tavella at 12:39 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
The hangers that are destroyed between these two photos (photo 1, photo 2) in the upper right and upper left are 40x20 meter (131 X 65 foot) buildings to give some scale.
posted by interogative mood at 2:06 PM on August 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 2:06 PM on August 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Precision hits on the Nova Kakhovka Dam Bridge.
There's one spot where the highway juts out a little from the dam, which is exactly where Ukraine hit it, avoiding damage to the dam itself.
posted by ryanrs at 6:39 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
There's one spot where the highway juts out a little from the dam, which is exactly where Ukraine hit it, avoiding damage to the dam itself.
posted by ryanrs at 6:39 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
So the official Russian account of events went from no dead, to one dead, to 60 dead, but I can't find the source again. But they're still insisting on zero planes damaged.
Oryx is counting six SU-24s and four SU-30s, the heaviest losses ever sustained by the Russian Air Force in a single day.
posted by Harald74 at 10:58 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Oryx is counting six SU-24s and four SU-30s, the heaviest losses ever sustained by the Russian Air Force in a single day.
posted by Harald74 at 10:58 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here's a short video of a woman crying because she has to leave Crimea yesterday, which many of you have probably seen, and the thread also have a short explanation of Russian/Soviet ethnic replacement policies.
posted by Harald74 at 11:16 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:16 PM on August 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Harald74, the author of that thread on the crying woman in Crimea is Sergei Sumlenny, who has quite an interesting past. I'd be very careful with what he writes nowadays.
posted by kmt at 4:37 AM on August 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by kmt at 4:37 AM on August 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Noted, I don't follow him directly but this thread popped up.
posted by Harald74 at 12:09 AM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:09 AM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Russian admiral in charge of the Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov, just got fired, despite weathering the Moskva sinking. The minimum damage estimate from the explosion is 8 planes, with some articles pointing out up to 20 were parked there a few hours before the incident. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy is facepalming and loudly telling his people not to brag about secret operations...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:30 AM on August 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:30 AM on August 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Co-founder of the Swedish Division of Amnesty International Per Wästberg has announced that he is leaving his post because of the organisation’s scandalous report on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Wästberg: "I have been a member (of the organisation – ed.) for almost sixty years. With a heavy heart, I am ending my long and fruitful cooperation because of Amnesty's statements about the war in Ukraine."
posted by UN at 4:50 AM on August 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Wästberg: "I have been a member (of the organisation – ed.) for almost sixty years. With a heavy heart, I am ending my long and fruitful cooperation because of Amnesty's statements about the war in Ukraine."
posted by UN at 4:50 AM on August 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
The general secretary of the Ukrainian chapter stepped down and therefore won't be attending an event here in Norway, and it's currently the main headline of our biggest tabloid.
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on August 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on August 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
Slovakia giving 10 warplanes to Ukraine
posted by adamvasco at 3:43 AM on August 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 3:43 AM on August 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wonder if there's any chance that Poland might decide to send their MiGs directly to Ukraine now, or let Slovakia be the intermediary.
posted by Reverend John at 6:12 AM on August 13, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 6:12 AM on August 13, 2022
Oksana Pokalchuk: What Amnesty got wrong in Ukraine and why I had to resign
posted by BungaDunga at 7:45 PM on August 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 7:45 PM on August 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ukraine is claiming the Nova Kakhovka Bridge is gone. Between that and the Antonivsky Bridge being useless the Russians are left relying on pontoons and ferry crossings to supply 25,000 troops on the west bank of the Dnipro. The Russian command structure that was in Kherson has supposedly bailed so we might be looking at a battle for Kherson commencing soon.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:49 AM on August 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:49 AM on August 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
Wagner HQ in Popasna Destroyed
* Ukrainian article w/ pics
* Reddit thread with translation
Russian military propagandist Sergey Sreda accidentally uploaded a photo of the headquarters of PMC "Wagner" in Popasnaya to the Internet during a visit to the facility on August 8.
posted by ryanrs at 2:17 PM on August 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
* Ukrainian article w/ pics
* Reddit thread with translation
Russian military propagandist Sergey Sreda accidentally uploaded a photo of the headquarters of PMC "Wagner" in Popasnaya to the Internet during a visit to the facility on August 8.
posted by ryanrs at 2:17 PM on August 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russian military propagandist Sergey Sreda accidentally uploaded a photo of the headquarters of PMC "Wagner" in Popasnaya to the Internet during a visit to the facility on August 8.
Not just that -- apparently, he uploaded a photo with the street address fully visible. At that point, they may as well just call in the HIMARS strike themselves.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:44 PM on August 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
Not just that -- apparently, he uploaded a photo with the street address fully visible. At that point, they may as well just call in the HIMARS strike themselves.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:44 PM on August 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
Not just that -- apparently, he uploaded a photo with the street address fully visible.Loose twits sink sh*ts.
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:35 AM on August 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's Polish Armed Forces Day, and since Ukrainians fought on our side that time, Zelenskiy and his head general Zaluzhny have both recorded messages in Polish despite not actually speaking the language. Zelenskiy in particular was very charming. With all the bitter semi-colonial history between the two nations, including betrayals and massacres and uprisings, it's an absolute first.
A grocery store I passed by today was using its LCD ad screens to display dual language Polish-Ukrainian lessons. Just about all written public transport messaging is now dual language in Warsaw. In a way it's a return to before World War II, when Ukrainians were the largest minority (or second largest, because about half of Jews identified as "Polish nationality, Jewish religion" on the census). I suspect a lot of the kids especially may stay in Polish education for a good long while.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:59 PM on August 15, 2022 [21 favorites]
A grocery store I passed by today was using its LCD ad screens to display dual language Polish-Ukrainian lessons. Just about all written public transport messaging is now dual language in Warsaw. In a way it's a return to before World War II, when Ukrainians were the largest minority (or second largest, because about half of Jews identified as "Polish nationality, Jewish religion" on the census). I suspect a lot of the kids especially may stay in Polish education for a good long while.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:59 PM on August 15, 2022 [21 favorites]
The puzzling thing about the latest ammo dump explosion in Crimea is that its 175 km or more from the front lines. So for the second time in a week Ukraine seems to have managed a deep strike in Crimea at a site that Russia would have thought was out of reach and a safe place to store equipment and munitions.
posted by interogative mood at 12:18 AM on August 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:18 AM on August 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sure seems like Ukraine has a new short range ballistic missile. The US has been pretty direct about not having given ATACMS. But the US isn't the only country supplying HIMARS/M270 systems. I wonder if the UK could have supplied ATACMS to Ukraine?
Another possibility is Ukraine's own Hrim-2. The development project was quite far along, but none are known to be in service. Maybe they got it working and are starting to put it to use?
posted by ryanrs at 12:37 AM on August 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Another possibility is Ukraine's own Hrim-2. The development project was quite far along, but none are known to be in service. Maybe they got it working and are starting to put it to use?
posted by ryanrs at 12:37 AM on August 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Twitter seems pretty sure these were cigarette accidents. I don't know how likely that is, actually, but it is certainly amusing.
posted by From Bklyn at 12:46 AM on August 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 12:46 AM on August 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
The puzzling thing about the latest ammo dump explosion in Crimea is that its 175 km or more from the front lines. So for the second time in a week Ukraine seems to have managed a deep strike in Crimea at a site that Russia would have thought was out of reach and a safe place to store equipment and munitions.
The further back into its ammunition supplies Russia is obliged to dig, the older and less stable those supplies become. Unexpected detonations of soviet-era ammunition has been a thing for a while - so it is not impossible here. However - the parallel explosion of a train line transformer nearby - might point towards special forces more. See thread from ChrisO
posted by rongorongo at 1:07 AM on August 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
The further back into its ammunition supplies Russia is obliged to dig, the older and less stable those supplies become. Unexpected detonations of soviet-era ammunition has been a thing for a while - so it is not impossible here. However - the parallel explosion of a train line transformer nearby - might point towards special forces more. See thread from ChrisO
posted by rongorongo at 1:07 AM on August 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Three for three for mysterious Crimea explosions today, outskirts of Symferopol this time. As Radek Sikorski commented on his Polish account, demilitarisation is going faster than expected.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:57 AM on August 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:57 AM on August 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
Somebody needs to recut that “come to Russia” video ad (the one that promises a paradise of cheap gas, beautiful women who know their place, and no cancel culture) adding “no health & safety nanny-state” over footage of ammo dumps going up.
posted by acb at 5:48 AM on August 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:48 AM on August 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
This video of the ammunition dump next to the rail station in Dzankoi Was taken from the window of a passenger train some time in the recent past. Note all those all those ammo crates and grad rockets. The explosions shown in this minute long video went on for hours. The keen minds at /r/NonCredibleDefense have identified the culprit as a Ukrainian bird.
posted by interogative mood at 7:19 AM on August 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:19 AM on August 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
Sounds like the leadership of the Russian occupation government in Crimea has fled to Rostov.
posted by ryanrs at 2:18 PM on August 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 2:18 PM on August 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
> I wonder if the UK could have supplied ATACMS to Ukraine?
Going to revise this to 'No', I don't think this is the work of other-than-US supplied ATACMS. Russia should have found bits of missile debris by now and would be jumping up and down blaming the US if it was ATACMS, no matter the proximate source.
On the other hand, if it was a domestic Ukrainian short-range ballistic missile, Russia would sooner blame cigarettes and incompetence than admit Ukraine has better missile tech than Russia.
But I think that's where we are: Ukraine has better SRBMs than Russia. Kind of amazing when you think about it.
posted by ryanrs at 9:08 PM on August 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
Going to revise this to 'No', I don't think this is the work of other-than-US supplied ATACMS. Russia should have found bits of missile debris by now and would be jumping up and down blaming the US if it was ATACMS, no matter the proximate source.
On the other hand, if it was a domestic Ukrainian short-range ballistic missile, Russia would sooner blame cigarettes and incompetence than admit Ukraine has better missile tech than Russia.
But I think that's where we are: Ukraine has better SRBMs than Russia. Kind of amazing when you think about it.
posted by ryanrs at 9:08 PM on August 17, 2022 [9 favorites]
Ukraine was one of the hubs of technology and engineering in the USSR, so them having good missile tech is unsurprising. Them having better missile tech than a Russia that has been hollowed out by corruption and is run by thugs incapable of managing anything more complicated than simple extractive industries is very plausible.
posted by acb at 1:13 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:13 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Erdogan is in Lviv talking about the need to end the war diplomatically. Is this a sign that Putin is seeking a status quo before he loses occupied Crimea?
Now that the tourists, colonial henchmen and the air force are evacuating the peninsula ... the big bridge towards the motherland must look like a ticking time bomb for those who haven't crossed yet.
posted by UN at 2:52 AM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Now that the tourists, colonial henchmen and the air force are evacuating the peninsula ... the big bridge towards the motherland must look like a ticking time bomb for those who haven't crossed yet.
posted by UN at 2:52 AM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Erdogan is in Lviv talking about the need to end the war diplomatically.
Only speaking for myself, fuck that.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:36 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Only speaking for myself, fuck that.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:36 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Erdogan is in Lviv talking about the need to end the war diplomatically.
Only speaking for myself, fuck that.
Unless it is a return to the status quo ante 2014. Then it's fine.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:10 AM on August 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Only speaking for myself, fuck that.
Unless it is a return to the status quo ante 2014. Then it's fine.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:10 AM on August 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Unless it is a return to the status quo ante 2014. Then it's fine.
Which must include repatriation of all kidnapped Ukrainians. And let's not forget hefty, hefty Russian reparations.
posted by Gelatin at 4:44 AM on August 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
Which must include repatriation of all kidnapped Ukrainians. And let's not forget hefty, hefty Russian reparations.
posted by Gelatin at 4:44 AM on August 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
Twitter thread
A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. Wounded and hospitalized, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.
posted by adamvasco at 4:49 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. Wounded and hospitalized, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.
posted by adamvasco at 4:49 AM on August 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russian reparations should be the cost of lifting sanctions on Russia. It would be worth saving that for later to get the killing to stop.
posted by Bee'sWing at 5:36 AM on August 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 5:36 AM on August 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
This video is claimed to likely be the first of Swedish-American M982 Excalilbur 155mm shells in use in the conflict. This type of shell has a circular error probability of just 4 metres. Against entrenched trucks like the video they are very effective, but also very expensive at USD 68k a pop. However, the cost has to be considered against the cost, risk and logistics issues of bringing up a large number of regular shells to the front line and firing them.
posted by Harald74 at 7:17 AM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:17 AM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Pavel Filatyev was front page on The Guardian today and my Ukraine follows are fucking furious, as they should be.
Anti-war liberals wrap all the way around to whitewashing fascists who abandon their principles only because they start losing.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:27 AM on August 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Anti-war liberals wrap all the way around to whitewashing fascists who abandon their principles only because they start losing.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:27 AM on August 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Tiny Latvia has donated their entire military helicopter fleet to Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 9:14 AM on August 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:14 AM on August 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
Pavel Filatyev was front page on The Guardian today and my Ukraine follows are fucking furious, as they should be.
Anti-war liberals wrap all the way around to whitewashing fascists who abandon their principles only because they start losing.
This is the Guardian article. It doesn't sound like whitewashing? Yes, this is a guy who voluntarily reenlisted after having served in Chechnya of all places, so clearly the principles he started out with were selective at best and I'm not impressed by his "I wouldn’t have changed anything to become a coward, and throw down my weapon and abandon my comrades.” But the article makes all of these things pretty clear, and this guy is calling out not just the incompetence but also the immorality and fictions of Russia's "operation": "Ethically, it would be easier if Ukraine attacked us, but the truth is that we invaded Ukraine and the Ukrainians did not invite us." And ultimately you want fascists to abandon their principles, and do it loudly and publicly.
When I read the article I thought it was something nationalist Russians would be angry about and consider propaganda, not Ukrainians.
posted by trig at 9:58 AM on August 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Anti-war liberals wrap all the way around to whitewashing fascists who abandon their principles only because they start losing.
This is the Guardian article. It doesn't sound like whitewashing? Yes, this is a guy who voluntarily reenlisted after having served in Chechnya of all places, so clearly the principles he started out with were selective at best and I'm not impressed by his "I wouldn’t have changed anything to become a coward, and throw down my weapon and abandon my comrades.” But the article makes all of these things pretty clear, and this guy is calling out not just the incompetence but also the immorality and fictions of Russia's "operation": "Ethically, it would be easier if Ukraine attacked us, but the truth is that we invaded Ukraine and the Ukrainians did not invite us." And ultimately you want fascists to abandon their principles, and do it loudly and publicly.
When I read the article I thought it was something nationalist Russians would be angry about and consider propaganda, not Ukrainians.
posted by trig at 9:58 AM on August 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Is the issue that the Guardian article portrays (some) Russian soldiers in a sympathetic light, victims to an uncaring government and corrupt leadership? Filatyev was still a part of the invasion, no matter how minute. He admits that his unit was involved in looting. I dunno if fascist is the right descriptor - maybe a pawn or a disillusioned patriot.
posted by meowzilla at 11:29 AM on August 18, 2022
posted by meowzilla at 11:29 AM on August 18, 2022
A Ukrainian military intelligence official tells @NBCNews that Russia has told its nuclear workers stationed at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant NOT to go to work tomorrow
Via @joshnbcnews
posted by interogative mood at 11:37 AM on August 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Is the issue that the Guardian article portrays (some) Russian soldiers in a sympathetic light, victims to an uncaring government and corrupt leadership?
One thing I found interesting was that he repeatedly said the soldiers had become savages and barbarians, and contrasted that with Russia's dearly-held self-image of "nobility and spirituality". Even if he blames the leadership for "turning us into" barbarians, it still puts the lie to the idea of some inherently nobler-than-thou Russian race or culture, which said leadership has been using heavily.
posted by trig at 12:07 PM on August 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
One thing I found interesting was that he repeatedly said the soldiers had become savages and barbarians, and contrasted that with Russia's dearly-held self-image of "nobility and spirituality". Even if he blames the leadership for "turning us into" barbarians, it still puts the lie to the idea of some inherently nobler-than-thou Russian race or culture, which said leadership has been using heavily.
posted by trig at 12:07 PM on August 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent(!) on the problems parts of the International Foreign Legion faces: Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct. A note from the authors at the end:
Hi, it's Anna and Alexander here.posted by kmt at 1:33 PM on August 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
We worked hard to piece the evidence together and break this story. We believe it is crucial to shed light on mismanagement in the army, especially in times of war. We wanted to help bring change to the International Legion so it continues to assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russian aggression. Now, however, many legionnaires are resigning due to the commanders’ misconduct.
To quote the late geologist Dr. David Johnson "Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it"
Reports coming in of a huge explosion and attack at the Kerch Straight Bridge between Russia and Crimea. Russian media says that a drone was shot down, but it is unclear if there is damage to the bridge. There was also an attack at the Russian airbase in Sevastapol and in Russia in Belgorad
posted by interogative mood at 2:08 PM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Reports coming in of a huge explosion and attack at the Kerch Straight Bridge between Russia and Crimea. Russian media says that a drone was shot down, but it is unclear if there is damage to the bridge. There was also an attack at the Russian airbase in Sevastapol and in Russia in Belgorad
posted by interogative mood at 2:08 PM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
As to the idea the Russians will sabotage the ZPP, I found this twitter thread helpful at giving it some perspective.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:21 PM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 2:21 PM on August 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
One thing that irks me is that even in case of a major Ukrainian victory in this war there will be no real reckoning for the Russians. No Nuremberg trials, no critical look at Russian history, no political changes, probably no reparations paid. I'm certain that will come back and bite us at a later date. Compare with the aftermath of WWI vs WWII.
posted by Harald74 at 1:24 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:24 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I also wonder if the Ukrainians, if they are denied justice in court, will end up hunting Russian war criminals like Wiesenthal, Mossad, et al did escaped Nazis after WWII. They certainly appear to have put effort into identifying perpetrators of the atrocities that have so far come to light. With the level of anger present it could get quite messy.
posted by Harald74 at 1:32 AM on August 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:32 AM on August 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
Knowing Russia's MO, there will be a lot of Duma seats handed over to anyone who committed atrocities in Ukraine, guaranteeing their immunity from extradition (alongside the assassins who killed Litvinenko). After all, what other uses does a parliament have in Russia?
posted by acb at 2:38 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 2:38 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I also wonder if the Ukrainians, if they are denied justice in court, will end up hunting Russian war criminals like Wiesenthal, Mossad, et al did escaped Nazis after WWII. They certainly appear to have put effort into identifying perpetrators of the atrocities that have so far come to light. With the level of anger present it could get quite messy.
I said in a thread here many months ago that I didn't think there was much point identifying individual perpetrators because I didn't think there would be much that could be done with that information. I've reconsidered that, at least for experienced contract soldiers and officers who have enough money that they might [at least aspire to] go on holidays to Europe at some point in their lives. Sufficiently good intelligence on specific war crimes can mean that many thousands of the most culpable can at least be kept cooped up in Russia for the rest of their lives and that is worth something. I still think that at the conscript level, many will never have the money to go on a foreign holiday but leadership is more culpable anyway and if putting the fear of not taking their wives to Paris into them might prevent another Bucha then it is worth doing.
re: Filatyev. Whistleblowers1 are usually bad people because otherwise they'd never be inside for long enough to accumulate all the knowledge of wrongdoing. I do think that narratives like this have a lot more power internally because if a sufficient number of contractniks with guns start to decide that their leaders are throwing them away for nothing...
(1) An imperfect parallel because he's not really blowing the whistle on anything we didn't already know.
posted by atrazine at 2:40 AM on August 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
I said in a thread here many months ago that I didn't think there was much point identifying individual perpetrators because I didn't think there would be much that could be done with that information. I've reconsidered that, at least for experienced contract soldiers and officers who have enough money that they might [at least aspire to] go on holidays to Europe at some point in their lives. Sufficiently good intelligence on specific war crimes can mean that many thousands of the most culpable can at least be kept cooped up in Russia for the rest of their lives and that is worth something. I still think that at the conscript level, many will never have the money to go on a foreign holiday but leadership is more culpable anyway and if putting the fear of not taking their wives to Paris into them might prevent another Bucha then it is worth doing.
re: Filatyev. Whistleblowers1 are usually bad people because otherwise they'd never be inside for long enough to accumulate all the knowledge of wrongdoing. I do think that narratives like this have a lot more power internally because if a sufficient number of contractniks with guns start to decide that their leaders are throwing them away for nothing...
(1) An imperfect parallel because he's not really blowing the whistle on anything we didn't already know.
posted by atrazine at 2:40 AM on August 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
OCCRP.org: I Confess to All the Crimes’: A Russian Soldier Admits to Executing a Civilian and Denounces His Commanders
From Andriivka, one of the many, many villages who have suffered or are still suffering from Russian occupation.
posted by Harald74 at 3:19 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
From Andriivka, one of the many, many villages who have suffered or are still suffering from Russian occupation.
posted by Harald74 at 3:19 AM on August 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
With the level of anger present it could get quite messy.
And there are many many Ukrainians in Russia, they blend in just fine. Nice to see a reversal of the "fifth column" threat for a change.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:14 AM on August 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
And there are many many Ukrainians in Russia, they blend in just fine. Nice to see a reversal of the "fifth column" threat for a change.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:14 AM on August 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Crowdfunding has provided Ukraine with the exclusive use of one of ICEYE’s Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellites. This will give them persistent 1 m resolution radar imaging capabilites, through cloud cover, smoke and darkness.
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on August 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on August 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Geez i live in the future. Not only are there cameras capable of taking 1m resolution images from space in the dark they are cheap enough that i can get together with some buddies and lease them for extended periods.
posted by Mitheral at 6:52 AM on August 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 6:52 AM on August 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
One thing that irks me is that even in case of a major Ukrainian victory in this war there will be no real reckoning for the Russians. No Nuremberg trials, no critical look at Russian history, no political changes, probably no reparations paid. I'm certain that will come back and bite us at a later date. Compare with the aftermath of WWI vs WWII.?
There were a lot of political changes -- including some pretty huge ones -- after WWI. There were reparations, too, which are widely named as one of the factors leading to WWII (at least with respect to the German perception of them, even if their direct economic impact is exaggerated). After WWII, Germany's remaining WWI reparation obligations were reduced. By half.
I'm all for Nuremberg-style trials, encouraging Russia to take a critical look at itself, and trying to get to some sort of liberal political environment, and I don't really have any general opinion on reparations, but I don't understand how "no political changes" and "no reparations" are points in favor of the same post-WWI vs. post-WWII argument as "no Nuremberg trials" and "no critical look at history" are.
posted by Flunkie at 10:31 AM on August 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Exclusive: Inside Ukraine’s Secret Effort to Train Pilots for U.S. Jets
But the Ukrainian pilots were nonetheless helped online over the past few months by both active duty and retired American A-10 pilots who told them where to look in open-source online forums to find the right software and manuals to use in the virtual training center, Gorgan says. “As for the American pilots and instructors, they were extremely cautious in the ways they helped us, because they are prohibited from having any direct contact with foreign military personnel,” Gorgan said. “They made clear that they could not and would not pass along any classified information.” The old manuals and software systems are in the public domain, Gorgan says, “but without advice [from the American pilots] we would not know what to look for, what methodologies, what doctrines to study more deeply.” It turns out that one of the most effective tools of modern warfare may be savvy Internet searches and persistence. “The new reality is that, with a bit of initiative and an Internet connection, you can reach out to anyone,” says Gorgan.
Summary: Ukraine has built A-10 training simulators using public-domain manuals and VR software and controls pioneered by advanced flight simulator nerds. They are training pilots.
posted by ryanrs at 2:14 PM on August 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
But the Ukrainian pilots were nonetheless helped online over the past few months by both active duty and retired American A-10 pilots who told them where to look in open-source online forums to find the right software and manuals to use in the virtual training center, Gorgan says. “As for the American pilots and instructors, they were extremely cautious in the ways they helped us, because they are prohibited from having any direct contact with foreign military personnel,” Gorgan said. “They made clear that they could not and would not pass along any classified information.” The old manuals and software systems are in the public domain, Gorgan says, “but without advice [from the American pilots] we would not know what to look for, what methodologies, what doctrines to study more deeply.” It turns out that one of the most effective tools of modern warfare may be savvy Internet searches and persistence. “The new reality is that, with a bit of initiative and an Internet connection, you can reach out to anyone,” says Gorgan.
Summary: Ukraine has built A-10 training simulators using public-domain manuals and VR software and controls pioneered by advanced flight simulator nerds. They are training pilots.
posted by ryanrs at 2:14 PM on August 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
I thought we agreed the A-10 was bad if you're not the US.
posted by meowzilla at 6:38 PM on August 19, 2022
posted by meowzilla at 6:38 PM on August 19, 2022
I gather that there is some desire by the US Air Force to dump the A-10s off on Ukraine so they can finally be rid of them. I think Ukraine has already passed on it and is lobbying for F-16s or Saab Grippens. Of course if they are training on A-10s then they could be doing the same thing to train on those other aircraft as well.
posted by interogative mood at 10:10 PM on August 19, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 10:10 PM on August 19, 2022
You think Ukraine has turned down US combat aircraft?
posted by ryanrs at 11:26 PM on August 19, 2022
posted by ryanrs at 11:26 PM on August 19, 2022
If Russia is using WW2 tanks, the A10 is in comparison a modern marvel
posted by Jacen at 12:44 AM on August 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Jacen at 12:44 AM on August 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
This time something caught fire in Sochi airport, about 200 km from Crimea. It does sound like the Ukrainians have the initiative.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:16 AM on August 20, 2022
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:16 AM on August 20, 2022
There were a lot of political changes -- including some pretty huge ones -- after WWI. There were reparations, too, which are widely named as one of the factors leading to WWII (at least with respect to the German perception of them, even if their direct economic impact is exaggerated)
You're right of course, I should have thought this a little bit better through before hitting the keyboard. But I do think there will be almost no political change after this, and no reparations for Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 3:59 AM on August 20, 2022
You're right of course, I should have thought this a little bit better through before hitting the keyboard. But I do think there will be almost no political change after this, and no reparations for Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 3:59 AM on August 20, 2022
I'm also a bit confused by the whole A-10 thing. I can almost suspect it being a ploy from the US Air Force to finally get rid of the A-10 (they're not very fond of it).
posted by Harald74 at 4:00 AM on August 20, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 4:00 AM on August 20, 2022
I noted that there also was armoured mine clearing vehicles in the latest US, something that's essential for assaulting a fortified line, so that might be a sign of things to come.
I don't think that armoured vehicles with mine rollers would be something you would send for general demining work?
posted by Harald74 at 4:05 AM on August 20, 2022
I don't think that armoured vehicles with mine rollers would be something you would send for general demining work?
posted by Harald74 at 4:05 AM on August 20, 2022
I can almost suspect it being a ploy from the US Air Force to finally get rid of the A-10
That’s because it’s definitely a ploy from the US Air Force to finally get rid of the A-10.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:11 AM on August 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
That’s because it’s definitely a ploy from the US Air Force to finally get rid of the A-10.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:11 AM on August 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Right after the fleet commander was replaced, someone flew a drone into the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. I think that is the second time they've hit the fleet headquarters with drones.
I don't think that armoured vehicles with mine rollers would be something you would send for general demining work?
Everything I have read suggests that these are in anticipation of predicted future advances.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:29 AM on August 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't think that armoured vehicles with mine rollers would be something you would send for general demining work?
Everything I have read suggests that these are in anticipation of predicted future advances.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:29 AM on August 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, in epic trolling, since the Russians had planned for a celebratory victory parade through Kyiv, the Ukrainians set up a "parade" of Russian vehicles in the downtown.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on August 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on August 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
The A-10 is effectively useless for short range CAS because of the 9K333 MANPADS. What the A-10 could do however is provide longer range strike capability. The Su-25s are basically firing unguided missiles with an effective range of 2-3km, deploying their ECMs, and then getting the fuck out.
An A-10 could do two things better than the Su-25. First of all it could launch Western guided missiles like a whole heap of Maverick AGMs that are probably sitting in a warehouse somewhere from far longer ranges (22km) outside the range of Russian MANPADS (6.5km) on the front line. The second is that it could launch Sidewinders at incoming Russian cruise missiles which the USAF has been training on for the last few years. This could seriously dent Russia's ability to strike far into UA territory.
That being said, it looks like the efforts to bring the A-10 to UA are being driven by line troops, not the UAF brass so who knows what's going to happen.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:51 AM on August 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
An A-10 could do two things better than the Su-25. First of all it could launch Western guided missiles like a whole heap of Maverick AGMs that are probably sitting in a warehouse somewhere from far longer ranges (22km) outside the range of Russian MANPADS (6.5km) on the front line. The second is that it could launch Sidewinders at incoming Russian cruise missiles which the USAF has been training on for the last few years. This could seriously dent Russia's ability to strike far into UA territory.
That being said, it looks like the efforts to bring the A-10 to UA are being driven by line troops, not the UAF brass so who knows what's going to happen.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:51 AM on August 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ukraine already operates the Su-25 and has gotten more since the war started. That aircraft plays the same role as the A-10 at a lower cost per flight hour. Here is an article where one of Ukraine’s defense officials is quoted as saying they don’t want the A-10.
posted by interogative mood at 10:21 AM on August 20, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 10:21 AM on August 20, 2022
Darya Dugina, daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin, reportedly dead in Moscow car explosion
posted by kmt at 10:46 PM on August 20, 2022
posted by kmt at 10:46 PM on August 20, 2022
In light of that, my recent comment seems almost prescient...
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on August 20, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on August 20, 2022
Given that the current regime have a history of prosecuting atrocities against their own people for propaganda purposes, to rouse the public against the regime's chosen enemy, there is no reason to suppose that the bombing was committed by Ukraine or agents acting on their behalf. The only question is why the Kremlin chose to kill her.
posted by Grangousier at 3:57 AM on August 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 3:57 AM on August 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Bomb likely aimed at "Putin's Brain", Alexander Dugin himself, not specifically his daughter. It was his car, but according to the article he chose to travel back from an event they had been at in a different way.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:08 AM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Stoneshop at 4:08 AM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine has denied any involvement in the bombing:
posted by acb at 4:53 AM on August 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
"We are not a criminal state, unlike Russia," said Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky's Presidential Office.Meanwhile, someone called The Cavell Group (who claim to be “Kidnap & Ransom Consultants, Hostile Environment, Crisis & Survival Training, Travel Security Briefings, Intelligence, Risk, Crisis & Expedition Consultants”) weigh in, suggesting that if it wasn't Ukrainian intelligence operatives, it could have been “Russian fascist cohorts”.
posted by acb at 4:53 AM on August 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
The only question is why the Kremlin chose to kill her.
Or whether Dugin himself was in on it. (If anyone was the sort to sacrifice their child for an ideology, it would be him.)
posted by acb at 4:55 AM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Or whether Dugin himself was in on it. (If anyone was the sort to sacrifice their child for an ideology, it would be him.)
posted by acb at 4:55 AM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Galeev's take (and I realise that opinions on that will vary along with opinions on Galeev himself) is that:
Darya weaponised the dad's brand and tried to act as an intermediary between:posted by Grangousier at 6:37 AM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
1) Kremlin and the European far right
2) interest groups in Russia
Both of which could have had her killed. The first one, for financial reasons. The second, for political ones.
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posted by From Bklyn at 10:26 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]