How polarized is WI politically? Historically, the answer is "a lot"
August 10, 2022 6:47 PM Subscribe
Wisconsin primary wins set up key fall confrontation over democracy
Tim Michels wins Wisconsin GOP governor primary, will face Tony Evers
Who controls the election machinery in deeply polarized Wisconsin could help determine who wins the White House in 2024—Democratic President Joe Biden or a successor versus Republican predecessor Donald Trump or a clone—and in turn whether democracy nationwide survives Republican perversion and destruction.
Tim Michels wins Wisconsin GOP governor primary, will face Tony Evers
Michels said decertifying the results of the 2020 contest was not a priority but said “everything will be on the table.” He supports other changes to voting and elections, including dismantling the bipartisan commission that runs Wisconsin elections.Meet Mandela Barnes, the 35-Year-Old Candidate Working to Oust Ron Johnson
The governor’s race was the latest proxy war between Trump and Pence, one-time partners who have backed opposing candidates in other swing states as they try to push the GOP in different directions. The results Tuesday added to Trump's record of wins, following victories for his preferred candidates last week in closely watched races for governor and Senate in Arizona.
Mr. Barnes, for his part, seems to grasp what the old guard does not. He has put eliminating the filibuster front and center in his campaign and has, throughout his career, talked about the need for Democrats to be bolder, both in their messaging and on bread-and-butter issues like health care, environmental issues and racial injustice.Mandela Barnes Is Ready For What May Be Democrats’ Toughest Senate Race
As a young Black millennial from a tough part of a large Midwestern city, he can give voice to issues many in the Senate cannot relate to, and he can do it through lived experience. He’s the son of a United Auto Workers father and a public-school teacher mother, who was born in a troubled, high-poverty area of Milwaukee.
Of course, Mr. Barnes has his flaws as a candidate. He has encountered several mini controversies. He was once photographed holding an “Abolish ICE” T-shirt and has worked alongside Representative Ilhan Omar from neighboring Minnesota and called her “brilliant” — the type of thing that could irk centrist swing voters.
“This is a race about who will do the work for the people of Wisconsin. If the President wants to show up and join us, he’s welcome to join us,” Barnes says when asked about Biden’s political leverage in the state. “We are driving the message. We aren’t leaving it to anyone else.”Wisconsin primary turnout nears 26%, most in 40 years
This, precisely, is why Mandela Barnes may be the best recruit Democrats have this cycle. Fresh-faced in a year voters consistently have said they want change, he is politically nimble enough to avoid splitting his Democratic Party in two, and he’s drawn high-profile pals to come join him on the trail like Sens. Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren. The drag of Biden hasn’t rendered him politically paralyzed. He is, by training, a community organizer so he knows how to build a campaign that can move hearts. And in recent weeks, he managed the unthinkable—clearing the field of his primary opponents, earning their endorsements and, in one case, almost $600,000 of their remaining ad time.
The result is stronger support for Barnes among Democrats than Johnson enjoys with his fellow Republicans. And among independents, it’s a statistical jump ball, according to Marquette University’s most recent polling. In a hypothetical head-to-head, Barnes has the narrowest of leads.
Unofficial results for Tuesday's primary show that nearly 693,000 Republicans voted in the governor's race and more than 501,000 Democrats voted in the Senate primary. Interest fell in that race won by Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes after his three top challengers dropped out two weeks ago.
Still, the 25.5% turnout was the best since 26.9% in 1982. Turnout in the 2018 primary, which featured a large field of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, was 23%.
Snark about the opening line aside, though, it sure would be nice for Wisconsin to replace RonJon. What a gigantic piece of [censored] that man is..
posted by Nerd of the North at 9:30 PM on August 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Nerd of the North at 9:30 PM on August 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
The New Yorker just published a very grim piece about the attacks on Wisconsin's electoral infrastructure.
posted by latkes at 9:53 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by latkes at 9:53 PM on August 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
If you care about the future of democracy, and you understand that certain states, like Wisconsin for example, will have an outsized impact on the future of democracy for the nation, may I humbly suggest one surprisingly impactful action you can take tonight:
Make a small financial contribution to nurses who are fighting to win back their union at UW Health, 11 years after Republican governor Scott Walker stole it away.
Walker destroyed public sector unions in Wisconsin because he understood that unions are a powerfully democratizing force, a way for working people to have any leverage at all against corporate interests, a place where regular people practice the democratic process together, where they learn skills of taking collective action to improve the common good and fight back against autocracy and worse. Help these nurses win their union now, and they will be in fighting shape to help protect democracy for everyone when 2024 rolls around.
posted by latkes at 10:05 PM on August 10, 2022 [32 favorites]
Make a small financial contribution to nurses who are fighting to win back their union at UW Health, 11 years after Republican governor Scott Walker stole it away.
Walker destroyed public sector unions in Wisconsin because he understood that unions are a powerfully democratizing force, a way for working people to have any leverage at all against corporate interests, a place where regular people practice the democratic process together, where they learn skills of taking collective action to improve the common good and fight back against autocracy and worse. Help these nurses win their union now, and they will be in fighting shape to help protect democracy for everyone when 2024 rolls around.
posted by latkes at 10:05 PM on August 10, 2022 [32 favorites]
That new Yorker article is SUPER grim:
*Drop off ballot boxes, legal in Wisconsin for the last 70 years, a>re now illegal
*You cannot give your ballot to a proxy to turn in even with a registered disability
*the state supreme court ruled 4-3 that any new electoral map should show "least difference" from the 2011 electoral map, which was ruled unconstitutional by the supreme court thanks to gerrymandering after the tea party wave of 2010
*democrats have won 11 of the last 12 votes in Wisconsin but repubs still control both the legislature and supreme court. A recent supreme court ruling gives the state legislatures absolute control over electoral maps
*active harassment of election officials and calls the abolish the WEC (Wisconsin electoral commission, the nonpartisan group that oversees election processes)
*Some absolute bullshit about how people in nursing homes shouldn't be allowed to vote
It's GRIM, though the high voter turnout is at least giving me hope that people in Wisconsin realize how grim it is. In the Kansas abortion thread someone also brought up how much money was spent on the Wisconsin attorney general Republican primary race (it was... A lot).
posted by subdee at 7:17 AM on August 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
*Drop off ballot boxes, legal in Wisconsin for the last 70 years, a>re now illegal
*You cannot give your ballot to a proxy to turn in even with a registered disability
*the state supreme court ruled 4-3 that any new electoral map should show "least difference" from the 2011 electoral map, which was ruled unconstitutional by the supreme court thanks to gerrymandering after the tea party wave of 2010
*democrats have won 11 of the last 12 votes in Wisconsin but repubs still control both the legislature and supreme court. A recent supreme court ruling gives the state legislatures absolute control over electoral maps
*active harassment of election officials and calls the abolish the WEC (Wisconsin electoral commission, the nonpartisan group that oversees election processes)
*Some absolute bullshit about how people in nursing homes shouldn't be allowed to vote
It's GRIM, though the high voter turnout is at least giving me hope that people in Wisconsin realize how grim it is. In the Kansas abortion thread someone also brought up how much money was spent on the Wisconsin attorney general Republican primary race (it was... A lot).
posted by subdee at 7:17 AM on August 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
*democrats have won 11 of the last 12 votes in Wisconsin but repubs still control both the legislature and supreme court.
Democrats everywhere should be yelling about this phenomenon -- it's happening lots of places, where Democrats don't get representation in proportion to even the votes they get -- and the media has been shamefully complicit in Republican authoritarianism by pretending it isn't a problem or relegating it to "critics say" false neutrality.
posted by Gelatin at 8:46 AM on August 11, 2022 [15 favorites]
Democrats everywhere should be yelling about this phenomenon -- it's happening lots of places, where Democrats don't get representation in proportion to even the votes they get -- and the media has been shamefully complicit in Republican authoritarianism by pretending it isn't a problem or relegating it to "critics say" false neutrality.
posted by Gelatin at 8:46 AM on August 11, 2022 [15 favorites]
Why is it that any candidate that takes a solid left stance on a moral issue “risks alienating centrist swing voters”, who don’t seem to be fazed by republicans who are openly advocating for fascism?
posted by Jon_Evil at 10:49 AM on August 11, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 10:49 AM on August 11, 2022 [16 favorites]
Why is it that any candidate that takes a solid left stance on a moral issue “risks alienating centrist swing voters”, who don’t seem to be fazed by republicans who are openly advocating for fascism?
Because the so-called "liberal media" covers for Republicans. They don't describe what the Republicans do in plain language, they over-represent Republican talking points (for example, Mitch McConnell describes every Democratic bill as "job-killing" or something in his public statements, knowing the media will amplify the claim), and they relegate objective description of Republican acts as "critics say."
posted by Gelatin at 11:01 AM on August 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
Because the so-called "liberal media" covers for Republicans. They don't describe what the Republicans do in plain language, they over-represent Republican talking points (for example, Mitch McConnell describes every Democratic bill as "job-killing" or something in his public statements, knowing the media will amplify the claim), and they relegate objective description of Republican acts as "critics say."
posted by Gelatin at 11:01 AM on August 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
Democratic message discipline and media strategy could be a lot better, but a big part of the problem is the media is viewed as liberal thanks to a decades-long Republican propaganda campaign, but it isn't, at all.
posted by Gelatin at 11:02 AM on August 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 11:02 AM on August 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Politics of Resentment, by political scientist Katherine Cramer, is a pretty interesting read about polarization in Wisconsin. It was published shortly before Trump's candidacy.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 2:39 PM on August 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by escape from the potato planet at 2:39 PM on August 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Shout-out to those who donated to the union strike fund! I see you! 💜
posted by latkes at 3:53 PM on August 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by latkes at 3:53 PM on August 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
@Gelatin "Mitch McConnell describes every Democratic bill as "job-killing"..."
And this is what matters to many voters in WI. I don't live there today, but my father relayed the complaint to me enough times from Northern Wisconsin for me to get the message. Take that as bar stool gossip on the mind of working class voters.
Reasonable people have said for years there was no solution for US companies off-shoring jobs, or evaporation of living wages in the middle-income segment.
I can't help but put 2+2 and think the ideology of middle-income voters in this battleground state believe unreasonableness balances with job-growth.
And if that bar stool contingent is anything, it's loyal to a fault. Which means they will stick with their decisions until the frackery makes them quantifiably worse in the pocketbook today, than years of ...being forsaken by reasonable people who said what can we do? We can't force companies to pay more or keep their jobs in the US...
posted by xtian at 6:47 AM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
And this is what matters to many voters in WI. I don't live there today, but my father relayed the complaint to me enough times from Northern Wisconsin for me to get the message. Take that as bar stool gossip on the mind of working class voters.
Reasonable people have said for years there was no solution for US companies off-shoring jobs, or evaporation of living wages in the middle-income segment.
I can't help but put 2+2 and think the ideology of middle-income voters in this battleground state believe unreasonableness balances with job-growth.
And if that bar stool contingent is anything, it's loyal to a fault. Which means they will stick with their decisions until the frackery makes them quantifiably worse in the pocketbook today, than years of ...being forsaken by reasonable people who said what can we do? We can't force companies to pay more or keep their jobs in the US...
posted by xtian at 6:47 AM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
xtian: "We can't force companies to pay more or keep their jobs in the US..."
We actually can do both, and did do both in the just passed climate legislation. (As mentioned in the Hank Green explainer video of another current MF post.) Of course it will take a while for the effects to be felt, and then perhaps some effort to make sure people know where it came from.
posted by johnabbe at 10:44 PM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
We actually can do both, and did do both in the just passed climate legislation. (As mentioned in the Hank Green explainer video of another current MF post.) Of course it will take a while for the effects to be felt, and then perhaps some effort to make sure people know where it came from.
posted by johnabbe at 10:44 PM on August 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
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Can we at least get through the current slate of elections first? I've been working my behind off to help a candidate running in Alaska's special congressional election, taking place next week, and it's hard to look that far ahead. 2024 just seems so very, very far away.
posted by Nerd of the North at 9:14 PM on August 10, 2022