A Cold Winter Is Likely

September 27, 2022 9:32 AM

A weak polar vortex is likely. To summarize everything, there are two main things to take away from this development. First, strong high-pressure systems will impact the Polar Vortex more directly. Pressing upwards and sending energy waves, we are seeing a reduction in the power of the Polar Vortex.

"That is called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and basically means a strong warming event of the Stratosphere and a following collapse of the Polar Vortex.

The corresponding average temperature 0-30 days after an SSW event shows that most of the United States is typically colder than normal, along with Europe. Note: this is an average picture of many SSW events. Each individual stratospheric warming event is different and does not automatically mean a strong winter pattern."

posted by Nancy Lebovitz (43 comments total)

Previously on the polarvortex tag
posted by aniola at 9:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

This sounds bad given the current and forecasted cost of energy in Europe.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:49 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]

This sounds bad given the current and forecasted cost of energy in Europe.

Sudden leaks in gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany raise suspicions of sabotage
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:54 AM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

From the evidence around here, I suspect it's going to be a miserable winter. Trees that historically don't turn colour are turning colour. Trees that have always turned yellow are turning red. Trees are turning at a time when they normally wouldn't. Nut production from a tree that always produces ridiculous quantities is practically zero. This is based on nearly half a century of observation. Seriously, it's never been like this. I don't know exactly what that means, but somehow I don't think it's good tidings.
posted by sardonyx at 10:15 AM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]

I'm not looking forward to our heating bills this winter. We're in New England and rely on fuel oil (we're looking to switch to heat pumps eventually, but even then, we'd need a back up system). Prices already doubled this spring/summer--it used to cost us about $350 to fill the tank, and it jumped up to about $700, and in the winter when it's cold we can go through a tank in 4-6 weeks or so. And apparently the region's stockpile is low. Plus the Jones Act means that we can't get fuel oil from the Gulf States. (The governors asked for an exemption from the federal government and the answer was basically "we'll see, maybe").
posted by damayanti at 10:16 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

oh. damn.
posted by lokta at 10:37 AM on September 27, 2022

Nut production from a tree that always produces ridiculous quantities is practically zero.

Here in IL old folks are saying the currently masting oaks (widespread synchronized large production) are a sign of a bad/cold winter. Acorn production is good/high here anyway.

The thing is, plant phenology can sense and react to a lot of stuff we miss, and it's good to pay attention to them. But at the same time, climate change is messing with most of their cues. So even if they know something we don't, we can't really trust them either bc we fucked up all the input signals real fast.
posted by SaltySalticid at 10:51 AM on September 27, 2022 [21 favorites]

Came in to make a ski season comment.....but ahhh....not the right temperature in the room for that. I hope this doesn't forebode as shitty a winter for the Northern Hemisphere as it might given what's going on in Europe and with heating costs. Except over the Russian held territory of Ukraine - may Russian troops be polar vortexed back across the border....
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:57 AM on September 27, 2022 [9 favorites]

Thanks, I hate it.
posted by General Malaise at 11:12 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

I’m sure the Texas grid is ready. {/hamburger}
posted by adamrice at 11:19 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]

We'll take your cold winter out here in drought plagued California--lots of rain and snow too please!

Of course, they always say to be careful what you wish for.
posted by eye of newt at 11:32 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

The thing is, plant phenology can sense and react to a lot of stuff we miss, and it's good to pay attention to them.

Hell, just today they announced that plants can sense when we're in for a drought, and will glow in warning.

I'm not kidding.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:32 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]

That's an amazing link, Empress, and the 4 comments answered some questions I had about the mechanism.
posted by jamjam at 12:02 PM on September 27, 2022

SaltySalticid,
Funnily enough, it's a centuries-old oak that I was talking about. (I'd really love to have a somewhat accurate way of estimating how old the tree is that doesn't involve cutting it down and counting rings.) It is always a prodigious producer of acorns. This year, it's essentially nothing (at least in comparison). It's very, very weird.
posted by sardonyx at 12:15 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

Sardonyx you're in Canada right? I haven't seen too much tree weirdness in my neck of the woods of southern Ontario. The oak in cemetery where I walk the dog is still green and there's so many squirrels it is hard to tell how prodigious they are with the acorns... but I did notice some maples and ash changing colour a bit early (it is almost October so it isn't that early for us - we already have frost warnings). The Farmer's Almanac predicted an early cold and snowy winter for Canada this year so I've already invested in some new dog walking boots and am looking into getting some kind of reflective vest for my snow coloured dog. We both like the cold and snow, so I expect we'll be out a lot.
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:59 PM on September 27, 2022

inflatablekiwi: "Came in to make a ski season comment..."

Thing is, if it gets too cold too fast, you don't get snow. Or worse, if you get snow in our current shitty unstable climate, it warms up just enough to melt it off and then freezes solid for 3 weeks right after, so you end up with ice and frozen ugly dirt.
posted by caution live frogs at 1:08 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

eye of newt: We'll take your cold winter out here in drought plagued California--lots of rain and snow too please!

It can be cold and dry, see Edmonton Canada who receives about as much precipitation as LA. At least you wouldn't need AC but -40 would probably be unbearable in a home built for California.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 1:29 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

(I'd really love to have a somewhat accurate way of estimating how old the tree is that doesn't involve cutting it down and counting rings.)

Tree coring is the usual method.
posted by Mitheral at 1:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

Naturally, the first year I don't have heat costs rolled into my rent. Sigh.

I don't understand the weather science well enough to quite tell--are these colder temperatures already being observed? Anecdotally this month has been much colder than an average September where I live--we had a couple of hot days but normally September is still full-bore summer 'round here. Instead we are fully in Sweater Weather.

If it didn't seem to bode ill in every other regard I would say it's been really lovely to get an actual Autumn, instead of charging headlong from Swamp to Blizzard like usually.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:48 PM on September 27, 2022

The thought of drilling through that tree--and the other ancient oak--and possibly damaging causing damage, isn't one that sits easily with me. I don't need to know the age that badly, Mitheral, but thanks. And yes, Ashwagandha, I'm in southern Ontario. It's not that I don't expect the colours to come in, but it's the way they're doing it that is very unusual.
posted by sardonyx at 1:50 PM on September 27, 2022

caution live frogs . Agreed....or you end up with a shitty snowpack that increases avalanche risks (and 2021 was already terrible for that)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:10 PM on September 27, 2022

not the right temperature in the room for that

ISWYDT
posted by Greg_Ace at 2:18 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

see Edmonton Canada

raise your hand if you have caught a bus on Jasper Avenue on a January night back in 1995

just typing that sentence brings back the shivers
posted by elkevelvet at 3:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]

Does 82nd at 5:45am count? Fricking wind tunnel. Hauling my frozen ass all the way to McNally was very non-fun.
posted by aramaic at 3:23 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

Sudden leaks in gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany raise suspicions of sabotage

Nordstream 2 never went live despite being completed, as the Germans halted certification in the run up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nordstream 1 flow had been cut by Russia to a small fraction by the time they shut it down for planned maintenance at the end of August; Russia then never turned it back on, with bullshit reasons blaming sanctions. So both were already effectively offline anyway, still pressurised but no new gas coming through.

The explosion near Denmark (but just outside the 12mile line) that breached both lines (in 3 places total) is certainly suspicious, and it would have been a fairly powerful bomb given the robust construction and concrete cladding, possibly dropped by trawler then detonated later remotely (a sub would have been easily spotted at that shallow depth). But apart from the environmental damage of the loss of the left-over gas still in the pipelines, the strategic impact is minimal; Russia was making threats and playing games with the supply for months, so Germany was as prepared as they could be when NS1 flow was shut off, and were hardly going to beg Russia to turn it back on. Russia of course has publicly blamed the US and/or Ukraine for the damage, wanting to hurt glorious Russia etc, so it seems likely they did it, though for what reason is still unclear. A veiled threat against other, western undersea infrastructure? Playing the victim card for China? Spiting Europe that was willing to give up Russian gas in support of Ukraine? Cos Putin is as mad as a box of caffeinated squirrels?
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:42 PM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

Toronto: My maple tree finally turned a glorious copper all over on November 10 last year. It had acquired yellow-edged leaves by October 20, 2021. Today -- September 27 -- it is very close to its October 20, 2021 colours. This doesn't feel like a good portent, especially after being spoiled with a relatively mild winter last year.
posted by maudlin at 5:07 PM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

I don't need to know the age that badly

Looks like people are working on using CT scans to count rings. Maybe one of these days for a $100 you'll be able to call up the Ring Counters and get a determination of age.
posted by Mitheral at 6:02 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

The Russian winter is no problem for Russians. Remember that one time Napoleon was on the doorstep of Moscow, with the winter coming in? Yeah, Russians burned down the city and left no spoils, or food, or shelter, or fuel. Napoleon's army went back to France. So this is a no holds barred energy war, among other things. I have enjoyed cool evenings here, and look forward to even a half hearted monsoon season. The light has moved noticeably south I would love that Autumn feel, I have to go to the mountains for that.
posted by Oyéah at 7:00 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

It was a difficult summer for trees in many parts of Europe and North America with drought and record heat. If you see a lot of them turning color or dropping leaves early this year it’s very possibly due to stress from these other aspects of climate change rather than a sign that the polar vortex is about to go berserk.
posted by theory at 7:29 PM on September 27, 2022 [23 favorites]

Russia of course has publicly blamed the US and/or Ukraine for the damage, wanting to hurt glorious Russia etc, so it seems likely they did it, though for what reason is still unclear

Biden said in February that if Russian went into Ukraine, he would "put an end" to Nordstream.
posted by BWA at 8:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

Nord Stream 1 (and 2) were already ended. They've been carrying zero gas for a while now.

...so, you're implying the US blew them up to prevent them from carrying zero gas? Or to prevent them from ever carrying gas again at indeterminate points in the future? Maybe both? Help us out here.

Let's not forget, Louis XV said "Après moi, le déluge" so we can all draw the obvious conclusions on the pipelines from that. Obviously, and I do mean obviously Jansenists have colluded with the Duke du Choiseul, together with the principals of the Starvation Pact to finally put an end to German ambitions. Obviously; I mean, I shouldn't even have to draw this hideously complex diagram, except for the pure artistic imperative.
posted by aramaic at 8:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [15 favorites]

I'm okay with the cold, but only if there's snow to go with it. Cold temps and no snow to play in makes for a long, dull slog of a winter.
posted by Gray Duck at 9:03 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

Thank you for that, aramaic. But for you I probably would have gone to my grave confident that Napoleon was the originator of the phrase.

Wikipedia offers an interesting tidbit about the circumstances:

The remark is usually taken out of its original context. It was made in 1757, a year which saw the crushing defeat of the French army by the Prussians at the Battle of Rossbach and the assassination attempt on the King. The "Deluge" the King referred to was not a revolution, but the arrival of Halley's Comet, which was predicted to pass by the earth in 1757, and which was commonly blamed for having caused the flood described in the Bible, with predictions of a new deluge when it returned. The King was a proficient amateur astronomer, who collaborated with the best French astronomers.

posted by jamjam at 11:42 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

The prospect of a particularly hot summer leading to a particularly cold winter reminds me of Finnish company Polar Night's sand battery - use the solar energy of the sun to store heat in sand which can be harvested in winter.
posted by rongorongo at 12:21 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

From the evidence around here, I suspect it's going to be a miserable winter. Trees that historically don't turn colour are turning colour. Trees that have always turned yellow are turning red. Trees are turning at a time when they normally wouldn't. Nut production from a tree that always produces ridiculous quantities is practically zero. This is based on nearly half a century of observation. Seriously, it's never been like this. I don't know exactly what that means, but somehow I don't think it's good tidings.

The Winter Finch Forecast (for North America) is now out. I doesn't sound like a major boreal tree crop failure to me. Full Midwestern bird nerd interview here with the forecast dudes
posted by srboisvert at 2:31 AM on September 28, 2022

so you end up with ice and frozen ugly dirt.
aka perfect skiing conditions in the North East.

Here in norther Germany the apple/fruit crop has been huge, unprecedented. Apple trees lining the roads are laden, to the point that you look at them and say, "Wow, that tree is absolutely laden with apples."
The winters over the last ten years or so have all been generally mild - there will be a two week period or so around Jan/Feb when it sits below freezing (or like last year just barely) and then it warms up again. This year everyone I know who has a coal oven - very popular in the former East-Germany, which is most of the region - have stocked up on coal, just in case. And gas prices go up every two months. It doesn't inspire confidence/ease.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

The Russian winter is no problem for Russians.

Never underestimate the Russian people's capacity for suffering.

Or, as the old Russian proverb goes: “Life is hard, but thankfully it is also short”.
posted by acb at 2:51 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]

...so, you're implying the US blew them up to prevent them from carrying zero gas? Or to prevent them from ever carrying gas again at indeterminate points in the future? Maybe both? Help us out here.

This makes more sense than the Russians blowing up something they might want to use again at some point in the future to, you know, sell gas.
posted by drstrangelove at 5:51 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

This makes more sense than the Russians blowing up something they might want to use again at some point in the future to, you know, sell gas.

Are you under the impression that Vladimir Putin is sensible?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]

...so, you're implying the US blew them up to prevent them from carrying zero gas? Or to prevent them from ever carrying gas again at indeterminate points in the future? Maybe both? Help us out here.

You seem to infer that, but I imply nothing. I simply serve up a data point. I'm open minded on both the who and the why. Talking heads and lettered experts are even now making the case for Russian culpability. It will be interesting to see if there is ever a definitive answer.

But since you ask, and to amplify Drstrangelove, and despite my disinclination to discuss religion or politics, here is a case that the US is responsible.

Consider the players. Sitting behind Blinken at the UN recently was Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland, who has long been interested in should be in charge of Ukraine. (As, of course, have the Bidens, though perhaps for other reasons.) Agree or disagree with her POV, it is an indicia of intent.

To a country like Germany that is facing a bleak winter and whose economy is tanking partially because they can't source enough energy, the possibility of the gas coming back on line has to look pretty tempting.* Taking that option off the table (and of course blaming Russia) theoretically will stiffen EU resolve to prolong the war. This at a time when European enthusiasm for the war is in question.

Again, the US players do not seem to see the EU as entirely reliable when it comes to Ukrainian issues. German and France were, after all, mediators in the 2014 Minsk Accords. (Bojo, presumably with US backing, talked Zelensky out of the April agreements.)

At some point the war will end and the world will need a modus vivendi. US policy makers of recent decades have not been strong on long term thinking. Then again, maybe they think cutting off Russian gas is desirable long term goal.

In the meantime, I hope this helps.

*Just yesterday on German news I saw a salesman shilling a new cold water washing machine.
posted by BWA at 9:10 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

This is a fairly specious line of speculation so far.
posted by aspersioncast at 9:57 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

For cross-reference purposes: There is a lot of discussion of the pipeline explosions in the Ukraine war thread as well. (It seems relevant to both threads; I have no opinion on whether it belongs more in one or the other.)
posted by mbrubeck at 9:59 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

New related post: Europe Is Likely to Avoid Unusually Cold Winter, Climate Model Says
posted by mbrubeck at 7:09 AM on October 16, 2022