How to support US democracy: Midterm elections
October 7, 2022 9:41 AM Subscribe
The US midterm elections will be held in 31 days, on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. While US democracy is still in danger, there has been some good news. For example, recently a Montana trial court struck down three voter suppression laws for violating the Montana Constitution. That is a huge win for voters, according to Democracy Docket.
"... the judge concluded that the Republican-controlled Legislature intentionally targeted young voters by eliminating the use of student IDs as acceptable standalone IDs, finding that the new ID restrictions placed 'heightened and unequal burdens on Montana’s youngest voters.' The judge pointed out that it 'is no accident that the Legislature passed SB 169 just months after Montana’s youngest voters turned out to vote at record rates.' In total, the judge rejected the state’s defense of the three laws, pointing out that there 'is no evidence of any voter fraud in Montana associated with [Election Day registration], student IDs, or third-party ballot assistance, and not even the Secretary’s own witnesses believe voter fraud is a problem in Montana.' "
That is welcome news. Less welcome news: "... nearly every GOP State Senate nominee in Arizona has indicated that they’re willing to throw the results of an election out if it’s not won by a Republican. However, the abrupt departure of an incumbent means supporting the write-in campaign of Eva Diaz is the most impactful donation that you can make right now," according to Give Smart 2022, a joint project of The States Project and Data for Progress.
The States Project "focuses on winning governing majorities in the states by making state legislative campaigns more effective and better-funded. ... we believe that state legislatures are the strongest force for change in this country."
Data for Progress calls itself "a multidisciplinary group of experts using state-of-the-art techniques in data science to support progressive activists and causes."
According to the partners, Give Smart uses "a combination of district-level modeling, electoral and demographic information, and the latest on the ground intelligence about campaigns, to find the races where your donations go furthest. And 100% of your donations go to the candidates."
Give Smart says Arizona Senate District 22 "is normally a safe seat but, shortly after winning the primary and without giving a heads up to anyone on the ground, nominee Diego Espinoza resigned from the legislature to become a lobbyist for a utility company. Under Arizona law he is the only person left on the ballot and if we don’t get enough voters to write in Diaz then there’s a chance a Republican would end up representing this heavily Democratic seat in the next legislative session."
This FPP was inspired by the responses to this Ask and a general desire to fight the GOP promoters working to end democracy locally, state-wide, and nationally. As former NRA spokesperson and current radio talk show host Dana Loesch said recently about the GOP's US Senate candidate in Georgia, “I don’t care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate.”
If you want to deny the GOP control of the US Senate, consider donating to the candidate or organization of your choice ASAP. An earlier post suggests some organizations that have non- or less-intimidating volunteer opportunities to help influence the midterm elections.
"... the judge concluded that the Republican-controlled Legislature intentionally targeted young voters by eliminating the use of student IDs as acceptable standalone IDs, finding that the new ID restrictions placed 'heightened and unequal burdens on Montana’s youngest voters.' The judge pointed out that it 'is no accident that the Legislature passed SB 169 just months after Montana’s youngest voters turned out to vote at record rates.' In total, the judge rejected the state’s defense of the three laws, pointing out that there 'is no evidence of any voter fraud in Montana associated with [Election Day registration], student IDs, or third-party ballot assistance, and not even the Secretary’s own witnesses believe voter fraud is a problem in Montana.' "
That is welcome news. Less welcome news: "... nearly every GOP State Senate nominee in Arizona has indicated that they’re willing to throw the results of an election out if it’s not won by a Republican. However, the abrupt departure of an incumbent means supporting the write-in campaign of Eva Diaz is the most impactful donation that you can make right now," according to Give Smart 2022, a joint project of The States Project and Data for Progress.
The States Project "focuses on winning governing majorities in the states by making state legislative campaigns more effective and better-funded. ... we believe that state legislatures are the strongest force for change in this country."
Data for Progress calls itself "a multidisciplinary group of experts using state-of-the-art techniques in data science to support progressive activists and causes."
According to the partners, Give Smart uses "a combination of district-level modeling, electoral and demographic information, and the latest on the ground intelligence about campaigns, to find the races where your donations go furthest. And 100% of your donations go to the candidates."
Give Smart says Arizona Senate District 22 "is normally a safe seat but, shortly after winning the primary and without giving a heads up to anyone on the ground, nominee Diego Espinoza resigned from the legislature to become a lobbyist for a utility company. Under Arizona law he is the only person left on the ballot and if we don’t get enough voters to write in Diaz then there’s a chance a Republican would end up representing this heavily Democratic seat in the next legislative session."
This FPP was inspired by the responses to this Ask and a general desire to fight the GOP promoters working to end democracy locally, state-wide, and nationally. As former NRA spokesperson and current radio talk show host Dana Loesch said recently about the GOP's US Senate candidate in Georgia, “I don’t care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate.”
If you want to deny the GOP control of the US Senate, consider donating to the candidate or organization of your choice ASAP. An earlier post suggests some organizations that have non- or less-intimidating volunteer opportunities to help influence the midterm elections.
Here's the closest races, according to 538:
- Senate
- House
posted by nightcoast at 10:06 AM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
- Senate
- House
posted by nightcoast at 10:06 AM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
This morning's NYT lists the toss-up Senate races as AZ, GA, NV, and WI. These are all within a point or two (although Warnock might be gaining some ground based on the latest scandal from Walker).
posted by briank at 10:23 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by briank at 10:23 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Odessa Kelly's race in TN isn't on that "closest races" list due to GOP gerrymandering - it used to look like the map at the Wikipedia page and now it looks like this (the olive-colored part, note Nashville is chopped into 3 districts). She'd be the first openly gay Black congresswoman. Mark Green got twice as many votes in his primary as she got in hers (both were unopposed in their primaries), so she is a longshot. Still, I love that the Dems didn't go with a "safer" candidate.
posted by joannemerriam at 10:35 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 10:35 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
If you haven't heard about it, the latest scandal from Walker is a doozy.
Herschel Walker: Abortion is murder.
A Woman: You got me pregnant and then paid for my abortion.
Herschel Walker: I don't know what you're talking about.
A Woman: Here's the check you sent me to pay for the abortion and the get well card you signed.
Herschel Walker: I've never met this woman.
A Woman: I'm the mother of one of your children.
Jemele Hill: Herschel Walker's candidacy is just insulting.
Georgia GOP: If only someone could have seen this coming.
Herschel Walker's Campaign: We just fired the campaign director.
posted by box at 10:41 AM on October 7, 2022 [18 favorites]
Herschel Walker: Abortion is murder.
A Woman: You got me pregnant and then paid for my abortion.
Herschel Walker: I don't know what you're talking about.
A Woman: Here's the check you sent me to pay for the abortion and the get well card you signed.
Herschel Walker: I've never met this woman.
A Woman: I'm the mother of one of your children.
Jemele Hill: Herschel Walker's candidacy is just insulting.
Georgia GOP: If only someone could have seen this coming.
Herschel Walker's Campaign: We just fired the campaign director.
posted by box at 10:41 AM on October 7, 2022 [18 favorites]
Which orgs does your dollar have the most impact? If mainstream democrats don't have enough $ by now, they're toast. The airwaves and mailboxes in swing states are SATURATED. Do people really think another ad buy will do it?
What I want to know is: what about GOTV efforts on the ground for people that aren't being reached or catered to? Who's providing childcare so young parents can go out and vote? Where will $500 make a difference?
posted by lalochezia at 10:44 AM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
What I want to know is: what about GOTV efforts on the ground for people that aren't being reached or catered to? Who's providing childcare so young parents can go out and vote? Where will $500 make a difference?
posted by lalochezia at 10:44 AM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
There's a "Federal Final Fifty" ActBlue page that will split your donation between 50 federal races:
The 40 House seats listed are considered to be tossups (30) or at least competitive (10) by the Cook Political Report...The 10 Senate seats listed are considered to be the most at risk (4) or the most flappable (6).
posted by msbutah at 10:46 AM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The 40 House seats listed are considered to be tossups (30) or at least competitive (10) by the Cook Political Report...The 10 Senate seats listed are considered to be the most at risk (4) or the most flappable (6).
posted by msbutah at 10:46 AM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
What I want to know is: what about GOTV efforts on the ground for people that aren't being reached or catered to? Who's providing childcare so young parents can go out and vote? Where will $500 make a difference?
lalochezia, there's an organisation not affiliated with any political party[1] that provides free food to people who are waiting in line to vote so that they don't leave the line and fail to vote. You can donate to them here.
Because they're not affiliated to any party, people who aren't US citizens/US residents can legally donate to them as well.
[1] Pizza to the Polls, a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan, nonprofit public charity. Contributions are tax deductible.
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 10:55 AM on October 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
lalochezia, there's an organisation not affiliated with any political party[1] that provides free food to people who are waiting in line to vote so that they don't leave the line and fail to vote. You can donate to them here.
Because they're not affiliated to any party, people who aren't US citizens/US residents can legally donate to them as well.
[1] Pizza to the Polls, a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan, nonprofit public charity. Contributions are tax deductible.
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 10:55 AM on October 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
lalochezia, thank you for asking your question. That issue is obvious in retrospect but had not occurred to me. But guess what? An amazing organization called Politisit is doing exactly what you suggested.
Our mission: To increase civic engagement by parents by paying for childcare.
Politisit addresses financial barriers to civic engagement for parents and other caretakers of minors. In order to ensure institutions and government entities are serving our communities well, we need families to engage in community meetings, civic activities, and legislative discourse.
In 2020, Politisit was able to pay for childcare in Florida and Texas. It has places in Texas listed at the moment. This is how it works: "We partner with an organization that provides child care for people to use while they vote, and Politisit reimburses the organization's cost by mailed check within 10 business days."
I bet these folks could use some money right about now. Organizations that want to provide childcare to voters need to register with Politisit. Perhaps MeFites thus inclined can help get out the word to reliable childcare providers in case they want to support parents and guardians via Politisit.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:08 AM on October 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
Our mission: To increase civic engagement by parents by paying for childcare.
Politisit addresses financial barriers to civic engagement for parents and other caretakers of minors. In order to ensure institutions and government entities are serving our communities well, we need families to engage in community meetings, civic activities, and legislative discourse.
In 2020, Politisit was able to pay for childcare in Florida and Texas. It has places in Texas listed at the moment. This is how it works: "We partner with an organization that provides child care for people to use while they vote, and Politisit reimburses the organization's cost by mailed check within 10 business days."
I bet these folks could use some money right about now. Organizations that want to provide childcare to voters need to register with Politisit. Perhaps MeFites thus inclined can help get out the word to reliable childcare providers in case they want to support parents and guardians via Politisit.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:08 AM on October 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
There's a "Federal Final Fifty" ActBlue page that will split your donation between 50 federal races:
I wanted to give my contact information to 50 ActBlue candidates, but I don't think I have a big enough email inbox.
posted by box at 11:12 AM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
I wanted to give my contact information to 50 ActBlue candidates, but I don't think I have a big enough email inbox.
posted by box at 11:12 AM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
This morning's NYT lists the toss-up Senate races as AZ, GA, NV, and WI.
I (once again, sigh) disagree with the NYT. Kelly in AZ has led every poll for months, the polling average has him well ahead, and Masters is floundering. They have AZ in that bucket for false drama, there's no basis in the data for it.
That said, NV and WI are genuine tossups. Warnock has a slight lead in GA, whether that's a 'tossup' depends on how broadly one defines it.
posted by gimonca at 11:12 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
I (once again, sigh) disagree with the NYT. Kelly in AZ has led every poll for months, the polling average has him well ahead, and Masters is floundering. They have AZ in that bucket for false drama, there's no basis in the data for it.
That said, NV and WI are genuine tossups. Warnock has a slight lead in GA, whether that's a 'tossup' depends on how broadly one defines it.
posted by gimonca at 11:12 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ugh. Now I have to vote in MEDTERMS too? Christ, Democracy, can't you do ANYTHING without participation?
posted by caution live frogs at 11:14 AM on October 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by caution live frogs at 11:14 AM on October 7, 2022 [11 favorites]
This is a great post, Bella Donna - thank you so much for the excellent links, the clear assessment of both encouraging and distressing recent news, and the excellent small selection of organizations we can support to help.
This is the perfect start for my Friday. Thank you!
posted by kristi at 11:15 AM on October 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is the perfect start for my Friday. Thank you!
posted by kristi at 11:15 AM on October 7, 2022 [12 favorites]
Ballotpedia has a list of Secretary of State elections. Any of these is worth attention. Democratic candidates in AZ, NV, MI, WI are particularly worthy of donations and/or time.
posted by gimonca at 11:28 AM on October 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 11:28 AM on October 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
I am so very grateful to Mr Walker for inadvertently tearing the last mask off the true face of the GOP. See Here (alt link) and here (alt link).
Forget the Q nutjobs. The sane ones standing behind them simply want to rule over and to punish the rest of us (and worse) without further consequence to them ever, and we're in their way, and they grow more weary of not being able to freely stomp on us every day.
They want to lead, they want you to follow, so the only recourse is to obstruct. r.i.p. george
posted by zaixfeep at 11:35 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Forget the Q nutjobs. The sane ones standing behind them simply want to rule over and to punish the rest of us (and worse) without further consequence to them ever, and we're in their way, and they grow more weary of not being able to freely stomp on us every day.
They want to lead, they want you to follow, so the only recourse is to obstruct. r.i.p. george
posted by zaixfeep at 11:35 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
Thank you so much for the kind comment, kristi, and to those of you who have added additional resources. US politics are often depressing. I find it entirely too easy to be passive when success feels unlikely. Then I remind myself that feelings are not facts and remember the immortal wisdom of Joan Baez: action is the antidote to despair.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:40 AM on October 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 11:40 AM on October 7, 2022 [14 favorites]
Some "hot takes" on close (or close-ish) Senate races, with an eye towards where donations would go the farthest:
More Valuable:
Wisconsin: Barnes (D) is in a tossup race against well-funded R incumbent Johnson. (My personal top choice for donation.)
Florida: Demings (D) is running slightly behind well-funded R incumbent Rubio, but within striking distance. Expensive state to campaign in.
North Carolina: Beasley (D) is in a tossup race with Budd (R). Democratic campaign could use some help here.
Nevada: Cortez Masto (D) is possibly the most vulnerable D incumbent at this point. Race is tossup. Note that ad spending here is probably just Las Vegas versus a handful of smaller markets (so dollars might go a long way).
Medium Valuable:
Georgia: Warnock (D) is pretty well-funded, lots of money sloshing around in this race. News cycle turmoil may be working in the D campaign's favor. Still super close.
Ohio: Ryan (D) is holding onto a very slight lead. Polling inconsistent, maybe? Republicans have been whining about Vance (R) being a bad candidate, and have made noises about shifting money elsewhere. Still a very close race.
Less Valuable:
Arizona: Kelly (D) has a comfortable lead. Race is awash with money on both sides.
Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) still has a comfortable lead, although it has been narrowing. Lots of money already in this campaign. Oz is by all accounts another embarrassing candidate (now exposed for being involved in killing puppies, for Pete's sake).
New Hampshire: Hassan (D) was originally flagged by inside-the-beltway types as vulnerable, but more recent polling has her fairly comfortable. The controversial Democratic campaign tactic of promoting extremist weirdo Bolduc (R) in the R primary could be helping as well, tough to say.
Standard disclaimer: there are other likeable candidates (Booker in Kentucky, for one example) with little chance of winning. But you can still donate to them if you like them.
posted by gimonca at 12:05 PM on October 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
More Valuable:
Wisconsin: Barnes (D) is in a tossup race against well-funded R incumbent Johnson. (My personal top choice for donation.)
Florida: Demings (D) is running slightly behind well-funded R incumbent Rubio, but within striking distance. Expensive state to campaign in.
North Carolina: Beasley (D) is in a tossup race with Budd (R). Democratic campaign could use some help here.
Nevada: Cortez Masto (D) is possibly the most vulnerable D incumbent at this point. Race is tossup. Note that ad spending here is probably just Las Vegas versus a handful of smaller markets (so dollars might go a long way).
Medium Valuable:
Georgia: Warnock (D) is pretty well-funded, lots of money sloshing around in this race. News cycle turmoil may be working in the D campaign's favor. Still super close.
Ohio: Ryan (D) is holding onto a very slight lead. Polling inconsistent, maybe? Republicans have been whining about Vance (R) being a bad candidate, and have made noises about shifting money elsewhere. Still a very close race.
Less Valuable:
Arizona: Kelly (D) has a comfortable lead. Race is awash with money on both sides.
Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) still has a comfortable lead, although it has been narrowing. Lots of money already in this campaign. Oz is by all accounts another embarrassing candidate (now exposed for being involved in killing puppies, for Pete's sake).
New Hampshire: Hassan (D) was originally flagged by inside-the-beltway types as vulnerable, but more recent polling has her fairly comfortable. The controversial Democratic campaign tactic of promoting extremist weirdo Bolduc (R) in the R primary could be helping as well, tough to say.
Standard disclaimer: there are other likeable candidates (Booker in Kentucky, for one example) with little chance of winning. But you can still donate to them if you like them.
posted by gimonca at 12:05 PM on October 7, 2022 [15 favorites]
(Oz was also photographed in front of Hitler's car.)
posted by box at 12:20 PM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by box at 12:20 PM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Montana situation is good news. In fact, there's is a whole raft of laws under challenge here because the last legislative session (they meet biennially) was so horrible.
Up until 2020, when Greg Gianforte was elected, we'd had a Democratic governor who reigned in the worst excesses of the rural, right-wing legislators, but Bullock was term-limited out. But even Gianforte vetoed 8 far-right bills.
Unfortunately, the news is not all good. What with redistricting and election denialism, we're facing the possibility of a GOP supermajority in the 2023 session, and things could get really ugly, including a rewrite of one of the most progressive state constitutions in the US. Naturally, the specifically enumerated right to privacy is a target as it underlies court decisions allowing abortion.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:30 PM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
Up until 2020, when Greg Gianforte was elected, we'd had a Democratic governor who reigned in the worst excesses of the rural, right-wing legislators, but Bullock was term-limited out. But even Gianforte vetoed 8 far-right bills.
Unfortunately, the news is not all good. What with redistricting and election denialism, we're facing the possibility of a GOP supermajority in the 2023 session, and things could get really ugly, including a rewrite of one of the most progressive state constitutions in the US. Naturally, the specifically enumerated right to privacy is a target as it underlies court decisions allowing abortion.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:30 PM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]
I live in Oregon and we have a pretty good chance of electing a Republican governor, not because the candidate has any particular talent but because we have a conservative "independent" (former Democrat) running for that office who cannot possibly win but who is bleeding votes from the Democratic candidate. Given the implications for drug treatment and doing anything constructive about homelessness, particularly in the PDX area I find this frightening and frustrating.
Doesn't matter where you live - vote. We need to get votes done and counted. This may be the last free election we have if we don't get this dealt with. Me, I intend to vote so damned hard I might just put a hole in the damned ballot and have to ask them for a new one...
There are more of us than there are of them. There are dangerous and dark times coming and we need good people in office instead of these fricking zombie grifters.
posted by cybrcamper at 12:50 PM on October 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
Doesn't matter where you live - vote. We need to get votes done and counted. This may be the last free election we have if we don't get this dealt with. Me, I intend to vote so damned hard I might just put a hole in the damned ballot and have to ask them for a new one...
There are more of us than there are of them. There are dangerous and dark times coming and we need good people in office instead of these fricking zombie grifters.
posted by cybrcamper at 12:50 PM on October 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
News cycle turmoil
As a technical writer, I think this is the best phrase ever.
posted by Melismata at 12:57 PM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
As a technical writer, I think this is the best phrase ever.
posted by Melismata at 12:57 PM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
< If you haven't heard about it, the latest scandal from Walker is a doozy.>
This is what blows me away about both the idea that these people should be anywhere near the wheels of power, and the idea that anyone would really seriously think that ought to happen: these people are so deeply cynical as to astound, and also they couldn’t govern their way out of a brown paper bag with both hands, a flashlight, and an able bodied assistant with a chain saw. See also the video featuring the obviously sincere Dana Loesch as she declares her priorities…
posted by cybrcamper at 2:01 PM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
This is what blows me away about both the idea that these people should be anywhere near the wheels of power, and the idea that anyone would really seriously think that ought to happen: these people are so deeply cynical as to astound, and also they couldn’t govern their way out of a brown paper bag with both hands, a flashlight, and an able bodied assistant with a chain saw. See also the video featuring the obviously sincere Dana Loesch as she declares her priorities…
posted by cybrcamper at 2:01 PM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
[F]ive years ago, Representative Tim Murphy (R-PA), who belonged to the Republican Pro-Life Caucus, resigned just hours after the story broke that he pressured a woman with whom he was having an affair to get an abortion. Now, Republicans are rallying around Walker [...] In the Philadelphia Inquirer, columnist Will Bunch pointed out that Republican leaders have not condemned Walker for his hypocrisy on abortion, his lies about it and about the many other things he has lied about during the campaign, or the many allegations of domestic violence women have made about him. Instead, his campaign says it has raised half a million dollars since the news broke, while Walker recorded an ad claiming he has been “saved by grace.”
Bunch noted what many observers have already called out: that the Republicans no longer care about anything but winning. But he went on: they insist on winning so they can put their vision of Christian domination into effect. “[T]he so-called ‘family values’ of American fundamentalists…turn out to be mere window dressing that can be tossed for the movement’s true aim: authoritarianism,” he wrote. - Heather Cox Richardson, LfaA, Oct. 6, 2022
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:53 PM on October 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
Bunch noted what many observers have already called out: that the Republicans no longer care about anything but winning. But he went on: they insist on winning so they can put their vision of Christian domination into effect. “[T]he so-called ‘family values’ of American fundamentalists…turn out to be mere window dressing that can be tossed for the movement’s true aim: authoritarianism,” he wrote. - Heather Cox Richardson, LfaA, Oct. 6, 2022
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:53 PM on October 7, 2022 [13 favorites]
New Hampshire: Hassan (D) was originally flagged by inside-the-beltway types as vulnerable, but more recent polling has her fairly comfortable. The controversial Democratic campaign tactic of promoting extremist weirdo Bolduc (R) in the R primary could be helping as well, tough to say.
The NRSC just pulled all of their money out of New Hampshire.
posted by Etrigan at 4:18 PM on October 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
The NRSC just pulled all of their money out of New Hampshire.
posted by Etrigan at 4:18 PM on October 7, 2022 [10 favorites]
Mobilize.us always has phonebanking and textbanking opportunities. I highly recommend giving both a try. If the phone scares you, textbanking is super easy.
posted by pelvicsorcery at 10:55 PM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by pelvicsorcery at 10:55 PM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
If people are looking for House races to contribute to for emotional satisfaction, probably a good idea to do a little research before throwing money at the opponent.
Marcus Flowers is the Democratic candidate in GA-14, where Marjorie Taylor Greene is the incumbent. Reports are that he's sitting on $10 million in donations already. The district is deep deep red, it's rated like R+45, and there's no published polling that I'm aware of that says that pile of money is getting any results. Some reporting says that he's intentionally vague about his military past--I'm not sure what to make of that.
Rebekah Jones is the Democratic candidate in FL-1, where Matt Gaetz is the incumbent. She was involved in Florida's covid response, and sparred publicly with DeSantis over it, which escalated to Florida law enforcement executing a search warrant against her. DeSantis abusing his power as governor is a believable scenario. However, Jones also has a history of charges against her that don't involve her covid response work. She seems to be an intelligent person, but the overall impression might be of someone with a resume where the disorder outshadows the accomplishments. In a deep red district, her campaign has released polling that suggests she's running a competitive race.
Adam Frisch is the Democratic candidate in CO-3, where Lauren Boebert is the incumbent. Actually seems like a nice guy. He also seems to be pretty centrist, which might be a deal-breaker for some people. When "Joe Manchin isn't such a bad guy" is one of your talking points....I go hmm. If Democrats maintain control of the House by just one or two votes.....I'd hate to see this guy giving the nation acid reflux. Still, partisan polling from the Frisch campaign and some local reporting say this race may be in play.
In these cases, all I can say is: be a smart shopper, do your research.
posted by gimonca at 6:31 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Marcus Flowers is the Democratic candidate in GA-14, where Marjorie Taylor Greene is the incumbent. Reports are that he's sitting on $10 million in donations already. The district is deep deep red, it's rated like R+45, and there's no published polling that I'm aware of that says that pile of money is getting any results. Some reporting says that he's intentionally vague about his military past--I'm not sure what to make of that.
Rebekah Jones is the Democratic candidate in FL-1, where Matt Gaetz is the incumbent. She was involved in Florida's covid response, and sparred publicly with DeSantis over it, which escalated to Florida law enforcement executing a search warrant against her. DeSantis abusing his power as governor is a believable scenario. However, Jones also has a history of charges against her that don't involve her covid response work. She seems to be an intelligent person, but the overall impression might be of someone with a resume where the disorder outshadows the accomplishments. In a deep red district, her campaign has released polling that suggests she's running a competitive race.
Adam Frisch is the Democratic candidate in CO-3, where Lauren Boebert is the incumbent. Actually seems like a nice guy. He also seems to be pretty centrist, which might be a deal-breaker for some people. When "Joe Manchin isn't such a bad guy" is one of your talking points....I go hmm. If Democrats maintain control of the House by just one or two votes.....I'd hate to see this guy giving the nation acid reflux. Still, partisan polling from the Frisch campaign and some local reporting say this race may be in play.
In these cases, all I can say is: be a smart shopper, do your research.
posted by gimonca at 6:31 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Some quick notes on other House races:
Arizona races: there seems to be a pattern in Arizona where Democratic candidates for the House are beating expectations in the polling. Redistricting should have turned AZ-1, 2, 4 and 6 into tough districts for Democrats, but D candidates are running even or ahead in the polls here. (This either means that Democrats are overperforming, or that polls are overstating D strength. Pick one.) Any of these races is worth watching.
California races: CA-22 may flip R to D, maybe also CA-27, maybe a couple of others. Polling data is sparse, results of the June elections might be a preview.
Colorado-8: this is the new seat after redistricting; Kirkmeyer (R) may have a small lead.
Florida-27: swing district after redistricting, poll this week suggests it's in play.
Illinois-17: this is effectively the seat Cheri Bustos (D) resigned from, Sorenson (D) may have a small lead at this point. District is combines bits of Rockford and the Quad Cities along the river with stretches of farmland. (Disclaimer: D candidate is a friend of a friend of mine, I've contributed to this one.)
Iowa races: IA-1, 2, 3 are all in play, two are currently R, IA-3 is currently D. All are tossups.
Michigan races: MI-3 may be a D pickup; R incumbent Meijer voted for Trump impeachment, lost in primary, Democrats might pick up this seat. You may also remember this as the Justin Amash seat--he left the Republican party to declare as a Libertarian before retiring. MI-8 and MI-10 are also in play.
Minnesota-2: Craig (D) won this seat when it stretched from the south Twin Cities suburbs along the Mississippi, it now has the same tossup demographic, but with different geography to the southwest. Tossup race this year.
Montana-1: Montana got divided into two districts after redistricting, a recent poll suggest the western one might be competitive.
Nebraska-2: Is this the year the "Omaha seat" finally turns blue? We'll see.
Nevada races: NV-1, 3, 4 are all in play (as are the races for Senate and Governor).
New Jersey-7: Malinowski (D) is in a tossup race to keep this seat; this area seems to be swingy usually.
New York races: NY-1, 2, 3 on Long Island are probably all in play to some extent or another. Several upstate seats have been watched: NY-17, 18, 19 and 22. Democrats did win a special election here under the old district boundaries a few weeks ago. (Area gets a lot of attention due to proximity to big media, too, I'm guessing.)
North Carolina-13: Nickel (D) and Hines (R) are in a tossup race.
Ohio races: OH-1 (the "Cincinnati seat") might finally go blue this year, it's a tossup again. OH-9 was considered competitive until R candidate Majewski was caught lying about military service. OH-13 is the seat Ryan (D) resigned from to run for Senate, Democrats are now in a tossup race to keep it.
Pennsylvania races: PA-7 might be an R pickup. PA-10 is currently represented by Perry (R), who is implicated in the Jan. 6th attack on Congress, Democrats are running a competitive campaign against him.
Rhode Island-2: this district was expected to be lost during redistricting, but the district survived. Incumbent Langevin (D) resigned. Fung (R) has a couple of polls out suggesting this might swing D to R.
Tennessee-5: this district around Nashville was supposed to be a victim of Republican gerrymandering. Incumbent Cooper (D) resigned. New Democratic candidate Campbell may be keeping it competitive.
Texas-34: remember when Republicans won this Rio Grande Valley district in a special election, and lots of pundits wrote stories about Hispanic voters turning Republican? Well, it might swing back to the Democrats again.
Washington-3: Republican incumbent Herrera Beutler voted for Trump impeachment, lost in primary to more extremist R candidate Kent. Race now a tossup, Democrat Gluesenkamp-Perez could take it.
Wisconsin-3: this La Crosse-based seat was redistricted to become a Republican seat. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) resigned; this is a likely R pickup.
Overall: I'm seeing a lot of mainstream media evaluations saying Republicans have a 70% or so chance of taking control of the House. I don't buy it, I think it's genuinely 50-50. And, whoever has control will have control by a narrow margin. My overall race evaluations: 206 Democrats, 209 Republicans, 20 tossup races too close to call. (218 needed for control.)
posted by gimonca at 7:31 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Arizona races: there seems to be a pattern in Arizona where Democratic candidates for the House are beating expectations in the polling. Redistricting should have turned AZ-1, 2, 4 and 6 into tough districts for Democrats, but D candidates are running even or ahead in the polls here. (This either means that Democrats are overperforming, or that polls are overstating D strength. Pick one.) Any of these races is worth watching.
California races: CA-22 may flip R to D, maybe also CA-27, maybe a couple of others. Polling data is sparse, results of the June elections might be a preview.
Colorado-8: this is the new seat after redistricting; Kirkmeyer (R) may have a small lead.
Florida-27: swing district after redistricting, poll this week suggests it's in play.
Illinois-17: this is effectively the seat Cheri Bustos (D) resigned from, Sorenson (D) may have a small lead at this point. District is combines bits of Rockford and the Quad Cities along the river with stretches of farmland. (Disclaimer: D candidate is a friend of a friend of mine, I've contributed to this one.)
Iowa races: IA-1, 2, 3 are all in play, two are currently R, IA-3 is currently D. All are tossups.
Michigan races: MI-3 may be a D pickup; R incumbent Meijer voted for Trump impeachment, lost in primary, Democrats might pick up this seat. You may also remember this as the Justin Amash seat--he left the Republican party to declare as a Libertarian before retiring. MI-8 and MI-10 are also in play.
Minnesota-2: Craig (D) won this seat when it stretched from the south Twin Cities suburbs along the Mississippi, it now has the same tossup demographic, but with different geography to the southwest. Tossup race this year.
Montana-1: Montana got divided into two districts after redistricting, a recent poll suggest the western one might be competitive.
Nebraska-2: Is this the year the "Omaha seat" finally turns blue? We'll see.
Nevada races: NV-1, 3, 4 are all in play (as are the races for Senate and Governor).
New Jersey-7: Malinowski (D) is in a tossup race to keep this seat; this area seems to be swingy usually.
New York races: NY-1, 2, 3 on Long Island are probably all in play to some extent or another. Several upstate seats have been watched: NY-17, 18, 19 and 22. Democrats did win a special election here under the old district boundaries a few weeks ago. (Area gets a lot of attention due to proximity to big media, too, I'm guessing.)
North Carolina-13: Nickel (D) and Hines (R) are in a tossup race.
Ohio races: OH-1 (the "Cincinnati seat") might finally go blue this year, it's a tossup again. OH-9 was considered competitive until R candidate Majewski was caught lying about military service. OH-13 is the seat Ryan (D) resigned from to run for Senate, Democrats are now in a tossup race to keep it.
Pennsylvania races: PA-7 might be an R pickup. PA-10 is currently represented by Perry (R), who is implicated in the Jan. 6th attack on Congress, Democrats are running a competitive campaign against him.
Rhode Island-2: this district was expected to be lost during redistricting, but the district survived. Incumbent Langevin (D) resigned. Fung (R) has a couple of polls out suggesting this might swing D to R.
Tennessee-5: this district around Nashville was supposed to be a victim of Republican gerrymandering. Incumbent Cooper (D) resigned. New Democratic candidate Campbell may be keeping it competitive.
Texas-34: remember when Republicans won this Rio Grande Valley district in a special election, and lots of pundits wrote stories about Hispanic voters turning Republican? Well, it might swing back to the Democrats again.
Washington-3: Republican incumbent Herrera Beutler voted for Trump impeachment, lost in primary to more extremist R candidate Kent. Race now a tossup, Democrat Gluesenkamp-Perez could take it.
Wisconsin-3: this La Crosse-based seat was redistricted to become a Republican seat. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) resigned; this is a likely R pickup.
Overall: I'm seeing a lot of mainstream media evaluations saying Republicans have a 70% or so chance of taking control of the House. I don't buy it, I think it's genuinely 50-50. And, whoever has control will have control by a narrow margin. My overall race evaluations: 206 Democrats, 209 Republicans, 20 tossup races too close to call. (218 needed for control.)
posted by gimonca at 7:31 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Finally, keep an eye on the North Dakota-At Large seat. Normally, the incumbent Armstrong (R) would sail to re-election. He got 69% of the vote in 2020. Normally, this would be the one of the sleepiest races of the season.
This year, the Democratic candidate Haugen has withdrawn from the race, and independent candidate Mund is opposing Armstrong as an independent.
Reports are that Haugen was pressured to end his campaign by North Dakota Democrats due to his anti-abortion positions. Mund has stated that protecting abortion rights is a motivator for her campaign.
Last month, it was reported that Mund will have a place on the ballot in November in North Dakota. Polling has been leaked saying that the race is now close; the Armstrong campaign responded with polling of its own saying basically "no it's not". We'll see.
You may remember Cara Mund as ......Miss America 2018. She's not afraid to speak out.
posted by gimonca at 7:48 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
This year, the Democratic candidate Haugen has withdrawn from the race, and independent candidate Mund is opposing Armstrong as an independent.
Reports are that Haugen was pressured to end his campaign by North Dakota Democrats due to his anti-abortion positions. Mund has stated that protecting abortion rights is a motivator for her campaign.
Last month, it was reported that Mund will have a place on the ballot in November in North Dakota. Polling has been leaked saying that the race is now close; the Armstrong campaign responded with polling of its own saying basically "no it's not". We'll see.
You may remember Cara Mund as ......Miss America 2018. She's not afraid to speak out.
posted by gimonca at 7:48 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think gimonca has made some great points in their posts; I would like to add some context/respectfully disagree with a couple of them--
Pennsylvania Senate: I'm not comfortable putting Pennsylvania at the third tier in terms of 'races where your dollars will be valuable' at this point; I would be wary of taking Dems' best pickup opportunity in the Senate for granted, and that's before the polls started tightening between Fetterman and Oz. I think this is still a race very much worth investing in first if you're looking to help the Dems hold the Senate.
Florida Senate: While I would love to see 2022 reverse years of Dem decline in Florida, I don't see much reason to believe that's going to happen or that Rubio is particularly weak, and would not put Florida in my top tier of races to prioritize in keeping the Senate.
Very much agreed on Nevada being probably Dems' most vulnerable seat this year. Don't let all the attention on Georgia fool you, Nevada is going to make or break Dems' prospects of holding the majority. Laxalt's not as headline-generating as Walker and unlike a lot of GOP nominees this year, he does have experience running and winning statewide.
As for House seats, a few strong Dem pickup opportunities, moving west to east...
CA-22: This has historically been a truly brutal district to campaign in. Redistricting has made it more compact and removed parts of eastern Fresno, and Dems have a strong contender in long-time state rep Rudy Salas. If you're looking at House races to donate to, this has gotta be near the top of the list.
CA-27: Another absolute toss-up that could really go either way; Republican Mike Garcia held the seat by about 330 votes out of 339,000 in 2020 and redistricting has made the district just a little bluer, at least on paper. Another one to consider donating in.
NM-2: This former light red seat was redistricted to take in parts of east Albuquerque, shifting it towards the Dems. At this point I would still give a slight advantage to Rep incumbent Herrell, but it's competitive in a year where Dems don't have too many opportunities to go on offense.
NE-2: Dems have been longing for this seat ever since they lost it to Don Bacon in 2016, but it always seems to be just out of reach. I don't think this year is going to change that, but Tony Vargas is a strong candidate, so I think the seat is competitive (but very clearly favors the Republicans).
TX-34: When this south Texas seat swung Republican in a special election this year, as gimonca said, pundits lost their minds about what it betokened for Dem prospects in the region and with Hispanic voters in general. What said pundits forget to mention is that the party all but literally did not bother to campaign during the special election because they knew redistricting was going to shift the district much bluer for the general election. Don't take anything for granted, but also don't let the special election results fool you, this seat is one of Dems' best pickup opportunities.
IL-13: Dems basically gerrymandered themselves a brand new seat in central Illinois. I think this seat is a pretty sure bet to "flip" (it functionally didn't exist before but the area it includes was previously represented by a Republican) and I wouldn't prioritize it for donations.
MI-3: Not a fan at all of Dems helping to bring down one of the last remaining anti-Trump House Republicans, but it did definitely put this seat into play. Another one I wouldn't prioritize for donations; I think Dem Scholten is in a strong position to win here.
OH-1: Another white whale for the Dems. Like NE-2, I don't think this year is going to be the year they finally put a harpoon in Republican incumbent Steve Chabot, but it's competitive... just like it was in 2020, and in 2018.
NC-13: This open-seat race is leaning towards Reps but Dem Nickel is running a hell of a campaign and has a decent shot at flipping it, so his campaign is well worth donating to, though I'd prioritize vulnerable Dem incumbents first.
NY-22: To round out our list of seats the Dems have been chasing after for years-- this Syracuse-centered seat is held by Republican John Katko, who is retiring this year. At this point I think the Republicans have the advantage but I could see this seat coming into play in the last month of the campaign and would keep an eye on it.
Not a ton of pickup opportunities this year. Personally, when it comes to donations, I would prioritize the vulnerable Dem incumbents gimonca listed over most of the pickup chances here.
posted by CactusJack at 8:21 AM on October 8, 2022 [9 favorites]
Pennsylvania Senate: I'm not comfortable putting Pennsylvania at the third tier in terms of 'races where your dollars will be valuable' at this point; I would be wary of taking Dems' best pickup opportunity in the Senate for granted, and that's before the polls started tightening between Fetterman and Oz. I think this is still a race very much worth investing in first if you're looking to help the Dems hold the Senate.
Florida Senate: While I would love to see 2022 reverse years of Dem decline in Florida, I don't see much reason to believe that's going to happen or that Rubio is particularly weak, and would not put Florida in my top tier of races to prioritize in keeping the Senate.
Very much agreed on Nevada being probably Dems' most vulnerable seat this year. Don't let all the attention on Georgia fool you, Nevada is going to make or break Dems' prospects of holding the majority. Laxalt's not as headline-generating as Walker and unlike a lot of GOP nominees this year, he does have experience running and winning statewide.
As for House seats, a few strong Dem pickup opportunities, moving west to east...
CA-22: This has historically been a truly brutal district to campaign in. Redistricting has made it more compact and removed parts of eastern Fresno, and Dems have a strong contender in long-time state rep Rudy Salas. If you're looking at House races to donate to, this has gotta be near the top of the list.
CA-27: Another absolute toss-up that could really go either way; Republican Mike Garcia held the seat by about 330 votes out of 339,000 in 2020 and redistricting has made the district just a little bluer, at least on paper. Another one to consider donating in.
NM-2: This former light red seat was redistricted to take in parts of east Albuquerque, shifting it towards the Dems. At this point I would still give a slight advantage to Rep incumbent Herrell, but it's competitive in a year where Dems don't have too many opportunities to go on offense.
NE-2: Dems have been longing for this seat ever since they lost it to Don Bacon in 2016, but it always seems to be just out of reach. I don't think this year is going to change that, but Tony Vargas is a strong candidate, so I think the seat is competitive (but very clearly favors the Republicans).
TX-34: When this south Texas seat swung Republican in a special election this year, as gimonca said, pundits lost their minds about what it betokened for Dem prospects in the region and with Hispanic voters in general. What said pundits forget to mention is that the party all but literally did not bother to campaign during the special election because they knew redistricting was going to shift the district much bluer for the general election. Don't take anything for granted, but also don't let the special election results fool you, this seat is one of Dems' best pickup opportunities.
IL-13: Dems basically gerrymandered themselves a brand new seat in central Illinois. I think this seat is a pretty sure bet to "flip" (it functionally didn't exist before but the area it includes was previously represented by a Republican) and I wouldn't prioritize it for donations.
MI-3: Not a fan at all of Dems helping to bring down one of the last remaining anti-Trump House Republicans, but it did definitely put this seat into play. Another one I wouldn't prioritize for donations; I think Dem Scholten is in a strong position to win here.
OH-1: Another white whale for the Dems. Like NE-2, I don't think this year is going to be the year they finally put a harpoon in Republican incumbent Steve Chabot, but it's competitive... just like it was in 2020, and in 2018.
NC-13: This open-seat race is leaning towards Reps but Dem Nickel is running a hell of a campaign and has a decent shot at flipping it, so his campaign is well worth donating to, though I'd prioritize vulnerable Dem incumbents first.
NY-22: To round out our list of seats the Dems have been chasing after for years-- this Syracuse-centered seat is held by Republican John Katko, who is retiring this year. At this point I think the Republicans have the advantage but I could see this seat coming into play in the last month of the campaign and would keep an eye on it.
Not a ton of pickup opportunities this year. Personally, when it comes to donations, I would prioritize the vulnerable Dem incumbents gimonca listed over most of the pickup chances here.
posted by CactusJack at 8:21 AM on October 8, 2022 [9 favorites]
Herschel Walker mess proves Christian right cares only about power, not abortion
posted by kirkaracha at 9:58 AM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
unless you’ve spent the last six years in a cave or a coma, you may not be shocked to learn that [Dana] Loesch doubled down on full-throated support for Walker’s election next month (in addition to attacking the millions of women who’ve aborted a pregnancy as “skanks,” just for the heck of it). She said the only virtue that matters on Election Day isn’t actual virtue, just “winning.”Herschel Walker Denies Paying For Abortion, But Says 'Nothing To Be Ashamed Of' If He Had
“I don’t care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles,” Loesch said. “I want control of the Senate.”
“I’ve already been forgiven,” Walker said in a radio interview with conservative host Hugh Hewitt, echoing the theme of redemption his campaign has used to try to dismiss reports of his past behavior.OK, great! You can be forgiven for being involved in an abortion. Then why the fuck do you support a total ban with no excuses?
“And if I’ve been forgiven, why in the world would I not be forgiven of something like that?” Walker continued.
“I hate to say I’ve been born again, but I have a new life,” Walker said. “And I’ve been moving forward, and had that happened, I would have said it, because it’s nothing to be ashamed of there.”Oh, nothing to be ashamed of? Then why the fuck do you support a total ban with no excuses?
posted by kirkaracha at 9:58 AM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
Pennsylvania Senate: I'm not comfortable putting Pennsylvania at the third tier in terms of 'races where your dollars will be valuable' at this point; I would be wary of taking Dems' best pickup opportunity in the Senate for granted, and that's before the polls started tightening between Fetterman and Oz. I think this is still a race very much worth investing in first if you're looking to help the Dems hold the Senate.
PA's Senate race is shifting because (a) Republicans will vote for anyone with an R after their name, and (b) metric tons of anti-Fetterman ads are being airdropped onto our airwaves. I see them on my Roku, on YouTube ads, on TV commercial breaks, when I close my eyes at night sometimes. Fetterman didn't pay his taxes, Fetterman sponged off of his parents, Fetterman wants to pardon murderers and put them in your living room, Fetterman will raise your taxes, Fetterman is a Communist wackadoo who's an AOC and Pelosi disciple. No matter how many unforced errors Oz makes, no matter how terrible Oz's Twitter game is, it wasn't going to end up in double digits.
Am I confident about it? Yeah, still. I'd rather be the guy just under 50% than the guy struggling to reach it. But a lot can happen in a month, and I suspect ads (uniformly anti-Fetterman, not detailing anything Oz would do) are about to turn even uglier.
PA's Governor race is trending better. Shapiro is still up by ten and over 50% consistently in polls, and Mastriano's big idea as to how to come back is, er, forty days of fasting.
My own corner of the state (the southeast) is full of Fetterman signs, as I'd expected. I haven't seen the full-throated conservative vigor out towards Lancaster or going up the US 15 corridor that I saw in, say, 2016. But every time I see a Mastriano sign out in the sticks, I'm sure that my reaction is much the same as Georgians seeing Walker signs on lawns.
"What the bleeding hell is WRONG with these people?"
And Dana Loesch answered that in the OP.
posted by delfin at 4:17 PM on October 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
PA's Senate race is shifting because (a) Republicans will vote for anyone with an R after their name, and (b) metric tons of anti-Fetterman ads are being airdropped onto our airwaves. I see them on my Roku, on YouTube ads, on TV commercial breaks, when I close my eyes at night sometimes. Fetterman didn't pay his taxes, Fetterman sponged off of his parents, Fetterman wants to pardon murderers and put them in your living room, Fetterman will raise your taxes, Fetterman is a Communist wackadoo who's an AOC and Pelosi disciple. No matter how many unforced errors Oz makes, no matter how terrible Oz's Twitter game is, it wasn't going to end up in double digits.
Am I confident about it? Yeah, still. I'd rather be the guy just under 50% than the guy struggling to reach it. But a lot can happen in a month, and I suspect ads (uniformly anti-Fetterman, not detailing anything Oz would do) are about to turn even uglier.
PA's Governor race is trending better. Shapiro is still up by ten and over 50% consistently in polls, and Mastriano's big idea as to how to come back is, er, forty days of fasting.
My own corner of the state (the southeast) is full of Fetterman signs, as I'd expected. I haven't seen the full-throated conservative vigor out towards Lancaster or going up the US 15 corridor that I saw in, say, 2016. But every time I see a Mastriano sign out in the sticks, I'm sure that my reaction is much the same as Georgians seeing Walker signs on lawns.
"What the bleeding hell is WRONG with these people?"
And Dana Loesch answered that in the OP.
posted by delfin at 4:17 PM on October 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
I would love love love for Val Demings to beat Rubio. But I agree with above that it is a real long shot. I’m satisfied with him having to spend money he didn’t plan on spending on TV spots.
posted by wittgenstein at 4:39 PM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by wittgenstein at 4:39 PM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
PA's Senate race is shifting because (a) Republicans will vote for anyone with an R after their name, and (b) metric tons of anti-Fetterman ads are being airdropped onto our airwaves.
Yeah, the race was always going to tighten considering how low Oz's support among Republicans was at the start. It was pretty clear that as the primary receded in the rearview mirror and the general loomed GOP voters were gonna come home.
Fetterman is raking in the dough, though, a lot more than Oz. I'm guessing he's planning to unleash a tidal wave of anti-Oz ads hitting him on all the usual points in the final weeks before the election.
posted by CactusJack at 6:34 PM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yeah, the race was always going to tighten considering how low Oz's support among Republicans was at the start. It was pretty clear that as the primary receded in the rearview mirror and the general loomed GOP voters were gonna come home.
Fetterman is raking in the dough, though, a lot more than Oz. I'm guessing he's planning to unleash a tidal wave of anti-Oz ads hitting him on all the usual points in the final weeks before the election.
posted by CactusJack at 6:34 PM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Minnesota-2: Craig (D) won this seat when it stretched from the south Twin Cities suburbs along the Mississippi, it now has the same tossup demographic, but with different geography to the southwest. Tossup race this year.
Weirdly a third party candidate in this district just died, which also happened in 2020. The Rs tried to delay the election last time but got blocked in court. There is a MN law passed after Wellstone's death that says elections will be delayed until February when a major candidate dies within 79 of an election. This third party is considered a major party since they got enough votes on a recent election.
posted by soelo at 7:02 PM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Weirdly a third party candidate in this district just died, which also happened in 2020. The Rs tried to delay the election last time but got blocked in court. There is a MN law passed after Wellstone's death that says elections will be delayed until February when a major candidate dies within 79 of an election. This third party is considered a major party since they got enough votes on a recent election.
posted by soelo at 7:02 PM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
A quick note on "white whales": yes, I definitely feel what CactusJack is saying about a couple of these seats. It seems like every cycle NE-2 and OH-1 come up as swing seats, and they stay Republican. Certainly could work that way again this year.
But, we used to have one of these in my area: Minnesota-3. This was a Republican so-called "stronghold" for decades.....until it wasn't. Now it's fairly safely DFL. (Somebody actually polled it a few weeks ago; Dean Phillips came up ahead by 21 points.) Once in a while, the white whale gets caught.
posted by gimonca at 3:40 AM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
But, we used to have one of these in my area: Minnesota-3. This was a Republican so-called "stronghold" for decades.....until it wasn't. Now it's fairly safely DFL. (Somebody actually polled it a few weeks ago; Dean Phillips came up ahead by 21 points.) Once in a while, the white whale gets caught.
posted by gimonca at 3:40 AM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not surprised to hear that there's a big air campaign in PA. But a couple of further "hot takes" on that (armchair hot takes, to be sure):
There's just a lot of money flowing around in general. You get the impression that Republicans are floundering around trying to figure out where to spend their warchest, without a lot of good options. It's possible that PA people are seeing a full-scale R assault, but it might be "throw everything at the wall, see what works, we're running out of ideas".
Also--I think Fetterman scares them. He's hitting Republicans where it hurts. "A hit dog will holler", as they say.
posted by gimonca at 3:58 AM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
There's just a lot of money flowing around in general. You get the impression that Republicans are floundering around trying to figure out where to spend their warchest, without a lot of good options. It's possible that PA people are seeing a full-scale R assault, but it might be "throw everything at the wall, see what works, we're running out of ideas".
Also--I think Fetterman scares them. He's hitting Republicans where it hurts. "A hit dog will holler", as they say.
posted by gimonca at 3:58 AM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Without claiming any particular soothsaying ability, I think Oz and Walker might be doing worse than it looks. To whatever degree that independents or Never-Trumpers or whatever exist, I'm not sure they're all going to go for another as-seen-on-TV candidate. There are people who will vote for anybody with a party identifier next to their name, and even support them in a poll, but, as we saw with Roy Moore, there are also people who step into the polling booth and are like 'ugh, that guy though?'
posted by box at 4:30 AM on October 10, 2022
posted by box at 4:30 AM on October 10, 2022
The thing about midterms is that if you're going to spend money, it kind of has to go where the elections are. PA is a big battleground with a soft underbelly -- 2016 demonstrated that -- and despite a lot of coolness towards Oz specifically, he's whom they have to work with this year. The opportunity is there, even if it's a weak one.
And Fetterman is an unusual candidate for this level. Granted, the Democrats could've run a sack of lukewarm milk and the attack ads would be painting it as a dangerous Communist interloper; that's what they do. Lots of the current ads are condescending at best; either silly personal stuff ("Fetterman lived with his parents! He didn't pay his property taxes!") or generic Fetterman is a Pawn of Pelosi and AOC and the Wacky Ultra Far Left platitudes. But they're hoping that Fetterman either has health issues flare up again or says something that's painted as a major gaffe this month (note: does not have to be an ACTUAL gaffe, just something they can hang around his neck) and enough 'moderates' are turned off that they can steal one at the wire.
The other thing is that I have heard next to nothing in ads concerning the jogger incident. And, realistically, I shouldn't; even the _jogger in question_ has openly said he's voting for Fetterman. But my assumption is that they'll hit hard in this region on that in the last week or two, hoping to depress urban turnout and that that's what potential voters will remember, not the fact-corrections that follow.
posted by delfin at 6:46 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
And Fetterman is an unusual candidate for this level. Granted, the Democrats could've run a sack of lukewarm milk and the attack ads would be painting it as a dangerous Communist interloper; that's what they do. Lots of the current ads are condescending at best; either silly personal stuff ("Fetterman lived with his parents! He didn't pay his property taxes!") or generic Fetterman is a Pawn of Pelosi and AOC and the Wacky Ultra Far Left platitudes. But they're hoping that Fetterman either has health issues flare up again or says something that's painted as a major gaffe this month (note: does not have to be an ACTUAL gaffe, just something they can hang around his neck) and enough 'moderates' are turned off that they can steal one at the wire.
The other thing is that I have heard next to nothing in ads concerning the jogger incident. And, realistically, I shouldn't; even the _jogger in question_ has openly said he's voting for Fetterman. But my assumption is that they'll hit hard in this region on that in the last week or two, hoping to depress urban turnout and that that's what potential voters will remember, not the fact-corrections that follow.
posted by delfin at 6:46 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
And for the record -- I _love_ Fetterman and all that he stands for. I think he'll be a major gift to the Senate Dems, and I can't wait to see the likes of Blackburn and Paul staring at him from across the aisle. He may look like a goon, but he's sharp and savvy and understands the political climate that we're actually in. I love the 'compete in every county' vote-gathering strategy, not just writing off red counties as hopeless. He's bringing enthusiasm to the left side of the ballot that many others wouldn't bring.
But question marks exist for every candidate, and the above are some of his.
posted by delfin at 6:53 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
But question marks exist for every candidate, and the above are some of his.
posted by delfin at 6:53 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
One more downballot race to watch: Destiny Wells is the Democrat running for Indiana Secretary of State. The race could be competitive.
posted by gimonca at 4:44 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 4:44 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
An excerpt from The Guardian:
Jim Marchant, who is running in the midterms as the Republican candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, has vowed publicly that he and his fellow coalition members will strive to make Trump president again. Speaking at a Make America Great Again rally in Minden, Nevada, on Saturday night, he repeated the lie that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen from Trump.
Marchant said he had investigated what he described as the “rigged election” and had discovered “horrifying” irregularities. He provided no details – an official review of the 2020 count in Nevada, which Joe Biden won by 34,000 votes, found no evidence of mass fraud.
Addressing the crowd of Trump supporters, Marchant then went on to pledge that he and his band of election deniers would secure a Trump victory in two years’ time. “When I’m secretary of state of Nevada, we are going to fix it, and when my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected we’re going to fix the whole country, and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024,” he said.
posted by Bella Donna at 8:50 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Jim Marchant, who is running in the midterms as the Republican candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, has vowed publicly that he and his fellow coalition members will strive to make Trump president again. Speaking at a Make America Great Again rally in Minden, Nevada, on Saturday night, he repeated the lie that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen from Trump.
Marchant said he had investigated what he described as the “rigged election” and had discovered “horrifying” irregularities. He provided no details – an official review of the 2020 count in Nevada, which Joe Biden won by 34,000 votes, found no evidence of mass fraud.
Addressing the crowd of Trump supporters, Marchant then went on to pledge that he and his band of election deniers would secure a Trump victory in two years’ time. “When I’m secretary of state of Nevada, we are going to fix it, and when my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected we’re going to fix the whole country, and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024,” he said.
posted by Bella Donna at 8:50 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
I took a look at the Secretary of State races. There are 27 up for election this year: some states don't really have them, or elect them on a different schedule, or have them appointed by the governor.
It's a mixed bag. Nevada is definitely an important race, as is Arizona, which has also gotten some press. Both have extremist Republicans running competitive races, both are states where there could be close elections in 2024.
Most Republican candidates for Secretary of State are election deniers at this point. They range from wishy-washy on the subject to full-on crazypants.
In the short term, some crazy-dangerous Republican candidates are running in states where they don't have a chance--but downballot races can produce unwanted surprises. Be sure to complete your entire ballot when you vote!
There are also flaky candidates running in deep red states (South Dakota as an example) where the general election is unlikely to be close, but the Sec. of State could still add corruption and illegality to contested primaries.
Polling is sparse across most races. Minnesota is tighter than it should be, Simon (D) appears to have a small lead, the Minnesota DFL has a track record of winning statewide races for several years now...but it's still close. In Michigan, Benson (D) appears to have a good lead over an extremist opponent.
In races with no published polling, Iowa, Kansas, New Mexico might be worth a look.
In a couple of states (Colorado, Kansas, maybe Ohio) a somewhat less extremist Republican defeated a more extremist primary opponent....but the Democratic candidate is still a better choice. In Georgia, Raffensperger (R), the guy who resisted Trump in 2020, survived the primary and is up for re-election, but here too, Nguyen (D) is a better choice.
Wisconsin is a special case: the Wisconsin Secretary of State doesn't have a lot of duties, and doesn't oversee elections, but the Republican candidate Loudenbeck wants the legislature to change that, possibly so she can use the Sec. of State office to interfere. Important to support LaFollette (D) here.
posted by gimonca at 4:07 AM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's a mixed bag. Nevada is definitely an important race, as is Arizona, which has also gotten some press. Both have extremist Republicans running competitive races, both are states where there could be close elections in 2024.
Most Republican candidates for Secretary of State are election deniers at this point. They range from wishy-washy on the subject to full-on crazypants.
In the short term, some crazy-dangerous Republican candidates are running in states where they don't have a chance--but downballot races can produce unwanted surprises. Be sure to complete your entire ballot when you vote!
There are also flaky candidates running in deep red states (South Dakota as an example) where the general election is unlikely to be close, but the Sec. of State could still add corruption and illegality to contested primaries.
Polling is sparse across most races. Minnesota is tighter than it should be, Simon (D) appears to have a small lead, the Minnesota DFL has a track record of winning statewide races for several years now...but it's still close. In Michigan, Benson (D) appears to have a good lead over an extremist opponent.
In races with no published polling, Iowa, Kansas, New Mexico might be worth a look.
In a couple of states (Colorado, Kansas, maybe Ohio) a somewhat less extremist Republican defeated a more extremist primary opponent....but the Democratic candidate is still a better choice. In Georgia, Raffensperger (R), the guy who resisted Trump in 2020, survived the primary and is up for re-election, but here too, Nguyen (D) is a better choice.
Wisconsin is a special case: the Wisconsin Secretary of State doesn't have a lot of duties, and doesn't oversee elections, but the Republican candidate Loudenbeck wants the legislature to change that, possibly so she can use the Sec. of State office to interfere. Important to support LaFollette (D) here.
posted by gimonca at 4:07 AM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
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