Winter is coming to Ukraine and the war (take 2)
October 12, 2022 2:06 PM Subscribe
As winter is approaching in Ukraine, the Kerch bridge has been heavily damaged, the day after Putin's 70th birthday. The very next day daily bombardments of Kyiv and other population centers had a massive increase in intensity, but this had probably been planned for a week already and mostly intended for the domestic audience. In a public debate where Western concerns dominate, the Ukrainian minister of defence Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk lays out the Ukrainian perspective on their path to victory.
Thanks to Harald74 for the original post.
Note that speculation about nuclear escalation is unwelcome in this thread.
Thanks to Harald74 for the original post.
Note that speculation about nuclear escalation is unwelcome in this thread.
It is a defiant mark of normality.
Witness the effort expended to get train services running again to liberated cities, often within a week.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Witness the effort expended to get train services running again to liberated cities, often within a week.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Does rail work better/worse in the mud season and/or Ukrainian winters?
posted by meowzilla at 2:35 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by meowzilla at 2:35 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Interesting how much rail matters in this war with the way that Russian logistics are largely rail based. Every railhead seized/repaired/destroyed goes into the calculus of which way the winds are blowing.
posted by drewbage1847 at 2:38 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by drewbage1847 at 2:38 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Worrying: Could Long-Range Iranian Missiles Be Next For Russia? (The Drive)
No purchases have been made, but a logical step since Russia is already buying and using Iranian drones. This throws out the entire "Russia runs out of missiles" expectation that has been around for months.
posted by meowzilla at 2:48 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
No purchases have been made, but a logical step since Russia is already buying and using Iranian drones. This throws out the entire "Russia runs out of missiles" expectation that has been around for months.
posted by meowzilla at 2:48 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
Does rail work better/worse in the mud season and/or Ukrainian winters?
Just a guess but they should work about the same, maybe a little slower if they have to shove a lot of big snow drifts out of the way. The tracks are built on top of some kind of layer of stones for drainage so mud shouldn't be an issue and trains are so monstrously heavy that the snow just isn't a serious impediment to their traction or forward progress.
I hope we can hear from a real train nerd about it 'cause the deeper details are always fun to learn about and deepens understanding of the whole thing. There is probably some additional work or maintenance that needs doing but I can't imagine mud or winter being a major complication for the rail system.
posted by VTX at 2:57 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just a guess but they should work about the same, maybe a little slower if they have to shove a lot of big snow drifts out of the way. The tracks are built on top of some kind of layer of stones for drainage so mud shouldn't be an issue and trains are so monstrously heavy that the snow just isn't a serious impediment to their traction or forward progress.
I hope we can hear from a real train nerd about it 'cause the deeper details are always fun to learn about and deepens understanding of the whole thing. There is probably some additional work or maintenance that needs doing but I can't imagine mud or winter being a major complication for the rail system.
posted by VTX at 2:57 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
This throws out the entire "Russia runs out of missiles" expectation
Having to stock up with material from Iran seems precisely like something you’d need to do when you’ve run out of your own. (Not sure what other point you’re trying to make.)
posted by progosk at 3:03 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Having to stock up with material from Iran seems precisely like something you’d need to do when you’ve run out of your own. (Not sure what other point you’re trying to make.)
posted by progosk at 3:03 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
If only the US had hundreds of billions of dollars to offer Iran n lieu of them selling weapons to Moscow.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Big Al 8000 at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think they mean that Russia will be able to restock. Unsure what the Iranian resupply capacity is. I'd worry more about China's manufacturing output.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Rail is hardly affected by rain and the resulting mud that would bog down road transport, with one exception: if the track bed is insufficiently drained you can suddenly have a whole chunk of track bed sliding off, which will happen most often with a train actually on it. And compared with road repair fixing the track bed definitely takes longer. For your average flat-ish geography like the Ukrainian steppes that is; if you're talking about mountainous regions where a bit of road or railroad can suddenly end up a couple 100m lower that would be another matter.
Rail has similar advantages in winter. Yes, you need snow plows, and sand to keep traction, but once the track and (if present) the overhead wire is cleared you can generally just run at the same speed as in any other weather.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Rail has similar advantages in winter. Yes, you need snow plows, and sand to keep traction, but once the track and (if present) the overhead wire is cleared you can generally just run at the same speed as in any other weather.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:07 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Not one red cent should end up in the pockets of the Ayatollahs.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:08 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:08 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
From what I understand, the Iranian drones are essentially garbage, dumb preprogrammed bombs like Nazi V2s only with a fraction of the explosive payload, and useless for tactical or strategic uses. Which suggests that Iranian missiles won't be the game changer Putin is looking for.
posted by acb at 3:09 PM on October 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:09 PM on October 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
How leaves affect the railway (they can become a slippery nightmare) - I designed a landscape next to a railway line a while back and got right into the weeds on this issue. If fall/autumn is odd/late and/or track maintenance is difficult for some reason this can become a serious issue - especially on inclines.
posted by unearthed at 3:12 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by unearthed at 3:12 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
This throws out the entire "Russia runs out of missiles" expectation that has been around for months.
Although it's not business as usual for the Iranian regime at the moment, so that's something that might throw a spanner into that particular works.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:12 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
Although it's not business as usual for the Iranian regime at the moment, so that's something that might throw a spanner into that particular works.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:12 PM on October 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
I keep thinking about what the reality is behind how the Russians are grabbing stuff from Iran and taking back ammo from allied states, etc.
posted by drewbage1847 at 3:14 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by drewbage1847 at 3:14 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
meowzilla: This throws out the entire "Russia runs out of missiles" expectation that has been around for months.
How much of that stuff would be available for the Russians to buy, at what time scale and how advanced is it? The Shahed-136 drone components are more or less what Iran can order from AliExpress; they could have some other channel for their more advanced missiles, but I doubt that would be available in large quantities.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:18 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
How much of that stuff would be available for the Russians to buy, at what time scale and how advanced is it? The Shahed-136 drone components are more or less what Iran can order from AliExpress; they could have some other channel for their more advanced missiles, but I doubt that would be available in large quantities.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:18 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Although it's not business as usual for the Iranian regime at the moment, so that's something that might throw a spanner into that particular works.
And Iranians are expiicitly pissed at the Ayatollahs for collecting Russian blood money.
posted by ocschwar at 3:19 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
And Iranians are expiicitly pissed at the Ayatollahs for collecting Russian blood money.
posted by ocschwar at 3:19 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Iran is a totalitarian state with proven capacity for putting down dissent.
posted by acb at 3:20 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 3:20 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
What is Russia paying Iran with in this scenario? They've already got their own oil to try to sell don't they?
posted by aspersioncast at 3:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by aspersioncast at 3:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Grain shipped down the Volga and onto to the Caspian. Same as always,.
posted by ocschwar at 3:22 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 3:22 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Met to discuss response to Crimea bridge attack
posted by lalochezia at 3:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 3:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Like sure, the Iranians are "cash-hungry," but isn't Russia still effectively stuck paying in rubles?
posted by aspersioncast at 3:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by aspersioncast at 3:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
It certainly seems that Ukraine is likely to win and push Russia out of everywhere, including Crimea.
Russian mobilization is still a wildcard. Sure they've fucked it up so far but the Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter lull. Are they likely to do that? No idea. And I am also concerned about Western support lagging and Western leaders blinking when Ukraine begins to roll into Crimea.
posted by LarryC at 3:29 PM on October 12, 2022
Russian mobilization is still a wildcard. Sure they've fucked it up so far but the Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter lull. Are they likely to do that? No idea. And I am also concerned about Western support lagging and Western leaders blinking when Ukraine begins to roll into Crimea.
posted by LarryC at 3:29 PM on October 12, 2022
Does anyone know of a good explainer on the strategic energy situation facing Europe? I've heard varying things from "everyone freezes in the dark" to "electricity is free from wind power in the North Sea" and want to sort all that out.
Am particularly interested in how the Russian infrastructure / terror strikes and jerkery around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant play into that.
posted by Sauce Trough at 3:31 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Am particularly interested in how the Russian infrastructure / terror strikes and jerkery around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant play into that.
posted by Sauce Trough at 3:31 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Who's going to train them? Most of the experienced instructors have been expended in previous offensives in Ukraine.
posted by acb at 3:31 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 3:31 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter
It's not clear that Russia could train up its existing soldiers properly in peacetime, conscripts in wartime in winter seems unlikely.
posted by mhoye at 3:33 PM on October 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
It's not clear that Russia could train up its existing soldiers properly in peacetime, conscripts in wartime in winter seems unlikely.
posted by mhoye at 3:33 PM on October 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Does anyone know of a good explainer on the strategic energy situation facing Europe?
This is a somewhat contrarian view: Russian Gas Cuts Will Not Kill the German Economy
posted by chavenet at 3:36 PM on October 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is a somewhat contrarian view: Russian Gas Cuts Will Not Kill the German Economy
posted by chavenet at 3:36 PM on October 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
acb: dumb preprogrammed bombs like Nazi V2s
V1 actually, which was a bomb with a pulse jet engine and wings, flying a more or less horizontal trajectory towards its target. They were slightly faster than most fighter aircraft of the time, but the RAF still managed to shoot down a fair number of them. The V2 was a ballistic missile with an actual rocket motor, basically unstoppable by anything available at the time, and a not too distant forefather of the Saturns that even took astronauts to the moon and back. Except that the V2 was supposed to go splat in some English city instead.
(Wernher von Braun had been working on the V3, which was meant to go splat in New York. Germany capitulating nixed that project)
posted by Stoneshop at 3:43 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
V1 actually, which was a bomb with a pulse jet engine and wings, flying a more or less horizontal trajectory towards its target. They were slightly faster than most fighter aircraft of the time, but the RAF still managed to shoot down a fair number of them. The V2 was a ballistic missile with an actual rocket motor, basically unstoppable by anything available at the time, and a not too distant forefather of the Saturns that even took astronauts to the moon and back. Except that the V2 was supposed to go splat in some English city instead.
(Wernher von Braun had been working on the V3, which was meant to go splat in New York. Germany capitulating nixed that project)
posted by Stoneshop at 3:43 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter
In the immortal words of Walter Sobchak: this is not Vietnam. There are rules.
You cannot conscript young men, put them through six weeks of basic training, and then send them to the front lines to fight in a modern war. I mean, you CAN, if your goal is to destroy your own professional military, but if you're actually trying to win a pitched fight against a modern combined-arms defensive force? "The winter" is not the time frame we're talking about. It would take years to build and train the kind of force Putin needs to mount a serious initiative against Ukraine. Sending conscripts to the front line is short-term gambit at best. Using them on the front lines is how you get stories of wholesale surrender, defection, or annihilation of troops.
posted by Mayor West at 3:54 PM on October 12, 2022 [18 favorites]
In the immortal words of Walter Sobchak: this is not Vietnam. There are rules.
You cannot conscript young men, put them through six weeks of basic training, and then send them to the front lines to fight in a modern war. I mean, you CAN, if your goal is to destroy your own professional military, but if you're actually trying to win a pitched fight against a modern combined-arms defensive force? "The winter" is not the time frame we're talking about. It would take years to build and train the kind of force Putin needs to mount a serious initiative against Ukraine. Sending conscripts to the front line is short-term gambit at best. Using them on the front lines is how you get stories of wholesale surrender, defection, or annihilation of troops.
posted by Mayor West at 3:54 PM on October 12, 2022 [18 favorites]
Pipeline carrying oil from Russia to Germany leaks in Poland. No word on whether this is sabotage or not.
posted by UN at 4:00 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 4:00 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
The proposal to provide advanced anti-missile defense systems to Ukraine counters the threat of Iranian missiles. It could also impact Russia's ability to use aircraft in contested areas. Targeting the Ukrainian civilian population may end up being another blunder by Putin.
As far as anti-missile systems are concerned, it would really get Putin's goat if the Israeli Iron Dome system were sent to the Ukraine. That would also raise the ire of the Iranians. A definite middle finger to them both.
posted by Metacircular at 4:04 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
As far as anti-missile systems are concerned, it would really get Putin's goat if the Israeli Iron Dome system were sent to the Ukraine. That would also raise the ire of the Iranians. A definite middle finger to them both.
posted by Metacircular at 4:04 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Do the analysts here think the UA has intentionally slowed a bit post Lyman? There were some reports of units moving quickly eastward and regaining several towns, but the number of tanks captured has lowered in the last couple reports. Consolidating or steady attrition? They can't shoot over the boarder so pushing too fast limits the total resources they can deplete... does that make any sense?
posted by sammyo at 4:09 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 4:09 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Does anyone know of a good explainer on the strategic energy situation facing Europe?
For work reasons I won't bore you with, I had to have a look at this so I'll leave this here if you want hard stats related to gas production, supply, and consumption: the IEA's Q4 2022 Gas Report has a lot of info, with a bunch of it dwelling on supply constraints and alternate supply/security concerns for Europe. One of the things that's changing up is contracting - rather than relying on short-term and spot contracts to fill gaps (which can sometimes lead to more favourable pricing), security of supply has become paramount, so longer-term contracts with reliable suppliers, even if they run the risk of being pricier, are being given preference.
One of the other things that has happened is that as of September, EU gas storage was ahead of where it was expected to be, with the urgency of the situation playing a big role.
Here's the short overview of the above report: Securing natural gas supply in times of crisis.
Also, there are concrete European Council plans that have been in the works for a while, with a 15 per cent cut in gas consumption targeted (with various exceptions/exemptions) for member states by winter.
More from the IEA: Accelerating energy diversification in Central and Eastern Europe.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:10 PM on October 12, 2022 [24 favorites]
For work reasons I won't bore you with, I had to have a look at this so I'll leave this here if you want hard stats related to gas production, supply, and consumption: the IEA's Q4 2022 Gas Report has a lot of info, with a bunch of it dwelling on supply constraints and alternate supply/security concerns for Europe. One of the things that's changing up is contracting - rather than relying on short-term and spot contracts to fill gaps (which can sometimes lead to more favourable pricing), security of supply has become paramount, so longer-term contracts with reliable suppliers, even if they run the risk of being pricier, are being given preference.
One of the other things that has happened is that as of September, EU gas storage was ahead of where it was expected to be, with the urgency of the situation playing a big role.
Here's the short overview of the above report: Securing natural gas supply in times of crisis.
Also, there are concrete European Council plans that have been in the works for a while, with a 15 per cent cut in gas consumption targeted (with various exceptions/exemptions) for member states by winter.
More from the IEA: Accelerating energy diversification in Central and Eastern Europe.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:10 PM on October 12, 2022 [24 favorites]
> sammyo: "Do the analysts here think the UA has intentionally slowed a bit post Lyman?"
I seem to recall seeing some Twitter commentary towards the end of the Kharkiv advance and maybe the beginnings of the Lyman campaign that the Ukrainian forces in that area were possibly reaching a culminating point and would need to pause (e.g.: to resupply, to repair vehicles & equipment, to rest & rotate forces, etc...). I have no particular insight into whether or not this is indeed the case but I have learned that such pauses in offensive wartime operations are basically inevitable due to the heavy demands of, well, offensive wartime operations.
posted by mhum at 4:18 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
I seem to recall seeing some Twitter commentary towards the end of the Kharkiv advance and maybe the beginnings of the Lyman campaign that the Ukrainian forces in that area were possibly reaching a culminating point and would need to pause (e.g.: to resupply, to repair vehicles & equipment, to rest & rotate forces, etc...). I have no particular insight into whether or not this is indeed the case but I have learned that such pauses in offensive wartime operations are basically inevitable due to the heavy demands of, well, offensive wartime operations.
posted by mhum at 4:18 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
The V2 was a ballistic missile with an actual rocket motor, basically unstoppable by anything available at the time, and a not too distant forefather of the Saturns that even took astronauts to the moon and back. Except that the V2 was supposed to go splat in some English city instead.
"Once the rockets are up,posted by kirkaracha at 5:36 PM on October 12, 2022 [25 favorites]
Who cares where they come down?
That's not my department,"
Says Wernher von Braun.
Like sure, the Iranians are "cash-hungry," but isn't Russia still effectively stuck paying in rubles?
Finally! A solid use case for crypto.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:45 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
Finally! A solid use case for crypto.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:45 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
#Ukraine: The first photos of a D-1 152mm howitzer in use by Russian (LNR) forces- they were transferred to the DNR/LNR in the end of August, but photos appeared just now.The D-1 is WW2-era towed artillery. This is looking at the barrel, seeing it scraped, and then proceeding to sweep around the barrel and looking for anything that resembles what was in the barrel among the debris. How long until we see the ~30 T-34s that Russia grabbed from Laos for ceremonial/filmmaking purposes pulled back into service?
The D-1 first entered service with the Red Army in 1943.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:59 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Does anyone know of a good explainer on the strategic energy situation facing Europe?
Whatever it is, it involves China and Asia. China had a lot of the existing long term contracts with eyes on the spot market for LNG, but then went ahead and sent those tankers to Europe for profit once sanctions on Russian Gas started, and China was, all of a sudden, able to get Russian Gas at much cheaper rates
Pretty sure it was the same for Japan, Taiwan, South Korea
posted by eustatic at 7:00 PM on October 12, 2022
Whatever it is, it involves China and Asia. China had a lot of the existing long term contracts with eyes on the spot market for LNG, but then went ahead and sent those tankers to Europe for profit once sanctions on Russian Gas started, and China was, all of a sudden, able to get Russian Gas at much cheaper rates
Pretty sure it was the same for Japan, Taiwan, South Korea
posted by eustatic at 7:00 PM on October 12, 2022
Re: Iron Dome, according to the Post,
But most analysts say the decision is driven by a perception that Israel cannot arm Ukraine directly without shattering its strategic cooperation with Russia in Syria and other hot spots that are a top priority for Israel.
posted by snofoam at 7:03 PM on October 12, 2022
But most analysts say the decision is driven by a perception that Israel cannot arm Ukraine directly without shattering its strategic cooperation with Russia in Syria and other hot spots that are a top priority for Israel.
posted by snofoam at 7:03 PM on October 12, 2022
Russia is also retrofitting older T-62s as well so it's probably starting to run dry on modern equipment.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:03 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:03 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Bet someone's looking into recommissioning those reactors now, eh?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:04 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:04 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter lull. Are they likely to do that?
Some thoughts on why they are inlikely to do that, from someone with a fairly deep familiarity with the current war:
Some thoughts on why they are inlikely to do that, from someone with a fairly deep familiarity with the current war:
- they couldn't do it in peacetime because of corruption. Soldiers were doing no-show sham exercises so that the army wouldn't have to use bullets or fuel (which it likely sold off instead). In this war where Russia chose the time to start and so presumably prepared for it to the then best of its ability it fielded million dollar radar systems on knockoff and cracked tires, tank crews with decade old field rations, and only three days of fuel. Now Russia has even fewer resources and no obvious willingness to eliminate corruption.
- in cases where troops were allowed time and resources to train in tanks, it was to win at war games like the tank biathalon. Great for bragging rights, but those targets don't shoot back.
- they can't do it now because most of the officers and experienced soldiers who would train the recruits well died in the first month of the war, and the remaining ones are the only competent soldiers in the field and can't be spared.
- at no point in this war or the time leading up to it has the Russia military and government demonstrated the kind of planning and organizational excellence and logistics that would be needed to start a proper training program for a huge number of raw recruits.
- anyone in the Russian military competent enough to do pull this off would be a threat to Putin.
The V2 was a ballistic missile with an actual rocket motor, basically unstoppable by anything available at the time, and a not too distant forefather of the Saturns that even took astronauts to the moon and back.
Supposedly, von Braun was already doing serious calculations for the rocketry needed for a moon launch back in the 30s, until the war effort encouraged him to direct rockets at this planet instead. For certain, NASA loved receiving his assistance after he was recruited over via Operation Paperclip.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:11 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Supposedly, von Braun was already doing serious calculations for the rocketry needed for a moon launch back in the 30s, until the war effort encouraged him to direct rockets at this planet instead. For certain, NASA loved receiving his assistance after he was recruited over via Operation Paperclip.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:11 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Is there actually likely to be a winter lull? Troops and vehicles can still move when the ground is frozen.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:13 PM on October 12, 2022
posted by saturday_morning at 7:13 PM on October 12, 2022
Whatever it is, it involves China and Asia. China had a lot of the existing long term contracts with eyes on the spot market for LNG, but then went ahead and sent those tankers to Europe for profit once sanctions on Russian Gas started, and China was, all of a sudden, able to get Russian Gas at much cheaper rates
Russia doesn't have productive fields hooked up to Power of Siberia. They were still establishing them right up until the war started and that effort has basically stalled out because Russia has lost access to all Western tech capable of getting them online. Last year the pipeline only exported 10 of its maximum 61bcm of gas. Bovanenkovo alone, which services the EU puts out 99bcm of gas a year, and there's no gas transit between Western and Eastern Siberia. China might be able to offset LNG imports with coal but Russian pipeline accounts for only about 6% of China's total imports.
The actual effect on the ground is that the EU has been pricing poorer Asian countries out of the LNG market. Pakistan had a billion dollar LNG tender go unfilled and Bangladesh is entirely fucked while the EU outprices everyone else in the LNG market.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:14 PM on October 12, 2022 [21 favorites]
Russia doesn't have productive fields hooked up to Power of Siberia. They were still establishing them right up until the war started and that effort has basically stalled out because Russia has lost access to all Western tech capable of getting them online. Last year the pipeline only exported 10 of its maximum 61bcm of gas. Bovanenkovo alone, which services the EU puts out 99bcm of gas a year, and there's no gas transit between Western and Eastern Siberia. China might be able to offset LNG imports with coal but Russian pipeline accounts for only about 6% of China's total imports.
The actual effect on the ground is that the EU has been pricing poorer Asian countries out of the LNG market. Pakistan had a billion dollar LNG tender go unfilled and Bangladesh is entirely fucked while the EU outprices everyone else in the LNG market.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:14 PM on October 12, 2022 [21 favorites]
You cannot conscript young men, put them through six weeks of basic training, and then send them to the front lines to fight in a modern war.
So how is Ukraine doing it? Not being snarky - this is a genuine question. I understand they had a modern professional military but that also pulled a bunch of former civilians into service as well, right? How have they handled that challenge?
posted by jeoc at 7:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it? Not being snarky - this is a genuine question. I understand they had a modern professional military but that also pulled a bunch of former civilians into service as well, right? How have they handled that challenge?
posted by jeoc at 7:21 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
Does rail work better/worse in the mud season and/or Ukrainian winters?
I hope we can hear from a real train nerd
One of the often cited axioms - not a hard rule, but a tendency - of why passenger rail in North America sucks compared to Europe has historically been:
"In N. America, they move cargo by rail and people by road; in Europe they move people by rail and cargo by road."
I am not sure how strongly that applies in Ukraine specifically, or if there are contingencies built in for Life During Wartime (or just Winter).
But if it does apply, then restoring internal & international rail links will help Ukraine move its people around, and maintain light freight (e.g. postal service) schedules. Moving people around
To move supplies around, Ukraine would need to keep their own internal and international road links functioning through winter.
Russia would have the other, muddy end of the stick? Forced to maintain cross-border troop trains, and also trucks full of supplies for them, on occupied-territory roads through Mud Season. "They dropped us off at a train station with empty pockets, and told us the food and bullets would come next week."
Ukraine has the home-field advantage?
posted by bartleby at 7:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
I hope we can hear from a real train nerd
One of the often cited axioms - not a hard rule, but a tendency - of why passenger rail in North America sucks compared to Europe has historically been:
"In N. America, they move cargo by rail and people by road; in Europe they move people by rail and cargo by road."
I am not sure how strongly that applies in Ukraine specifically, or if there are contingencies built in for Life During Wartime (or just Winter).
But if it does apply, then restoring internal & international rail links will help Ukraine move its people around, and maintain light freight (e.g. postal service) schedules. Moving people around
To move supplies around, Ukraine would need to keep their own internal and international road links functioning through winter.
Russia would have the other, muddy end of the stick? Forced to maintain cross-border troop trains, and also trucks full of supplies for them, on occupied-territory roads through Mud Season. "They dropped us off at a train station with empty pockets, and told us the food and bullets would come next week."
Ukraine has the home-field advantage?
posted by bartleby at 7:23 PM on October 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it
There is a reason it took 6 months for Ukraine to mount this big offensive. They spent 6 months training, learning new equipment, stockpiling supplies, strategizing etc.
posted by CostcoCultist at 7:26 PM on October 12, 2022 [21 favorites]
There is a reason it took 6 months for Ukraine to mount this big offensive. They spent 6 months training, learning new equipment, stockpiling supplies, strategizing etc.
posted by CostcoCultist at 7:26 PM on October 12, 2022 [21 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
I don’t know exactly, but I think Ukraine has been working on their military since at least the annexation of Crimea. Also, I would imagine the entire Ukraine armed forces are focused on this war, versus Russia, which has troops and equipment in a bunch of places.
posted by snofoam at 7:27 PM on October 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
I don’t know exactly, but I think Ukraine has been working on their military since at least the annexation of Crimea. Also, I would imagine the entire Ukraine armed forces are focused on this war, versus Russia, which has troops and equipment in a bunch of places.
posted by snofoam at 7:27 PM on October 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
Ukraine has been very specific about working to control supply points during these final weeks of autumn before the mud season. There's a very obvious pattern to what they've been doing. I'd not be surprised to see maybe one more good push for a specific land junction or one more major access point closed before the month is out.
I'm super impressed by Ukraine's strategic planning since this whole thing began. And baffled by Russia's complete incompetence. (grateful for it, but baffled)
posted by hippybear at 7:28 PM on October 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
I'm super impressed by Ukraine's strategic planning since this whole thing began. And baffled by Russia's complete incompetence. (grateful for it, but baffled)
posted by hippybear at 7:28 PM on October 12, 2022 [19 favorites]
As I understand it, recruits from more than six months ago were only recently being rotated into action on the Ukrainian side.
The other major difference is that all the Ukrainian troops can operate under decentralized command structures (someone with more knowledge than me covered this better in a previous thread). The mission breaks down from battalions to platoons, squads, and individual soldiers and all will independently do their part and will improvise and adapt to changing conditions.
That kind of independence isn't something Putin can tolerate in his military. Soldiers get direct orders on what to do with no context and no understanding of their piece in the larger picture so when stuff goes wrong (as all plans do) they have no way of knowing what to do until someone tells them.
posted by VTX at 7:29 PM on October 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
The other major difference is that all the Ukrainian troops can operate under decentralized command structures (someone with more knowledge than me covered this better in a previous thread). The mission breaks down from battalions to platoons, squads, and individual soldiers and all will independently do their part and will improvise and adapt to changing conditions.
That kind of independence isn't something Putin can tolerate in his military. Soldiers get direct orders on what to do with no context and no understanding of their piece in the larger picture so when stuff goes wrong (as all plans do) they have no way of knowing what to do until someone tells them.
posted by VTX at 7:29 PM on October 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
They've had conscription on an ongoing basis, with a focus on the reality and expectation of further Russian aggressions since 2014, which gives them a substantial reserve of trained forces. They've also modernized their command structure and training with the focus that only the threat of impending hostilities can muster. Or so I've read on Twitter
posted by wotsac at 7:36 PM on October 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
They've had conscription on an ongoing basis, with a focus on the reality and expectation of further Russian aggressions since 2014, which gives them a substantial reserve of trained forces. They've also modernized their command structure and training with the focus that only the threat of impending hostilities can muster. Or so I've read on Twitter
posted by wotsac at 7:36 PM on October 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
Also it's a lot easier to defend than it is to attack and UA have mobilized their entire veteran force. All those units who have been rotating through the Donbass since 2014 have all come back. When you see those massive counter-offensives, it's mainly the professional soldiers and veterans making those assaults with the ZSU (Ukraine Ground Army). They number maybe a quarter million tops. The rest of the force (about half a million or more) is going to be Territorial Defense Forces.
Also, not everybody needs to be a frontline infantry. NATO armies (which I assume includes UA given their modernization) often have 3-5 support soldiers for each frontline infantry. Russia is lucky to have 1:1. These support jobs don't require the huge amount training that would normally accompany something specialized like an artillery or tanker unit so having half a million untrained people in these reserve forces isn't necessarily useless towards helping the soldiers on the front line.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:38 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
Also, not everybody needs to be a frontline infantry. NATO armies (which I assume includes UA given their modernization) often have 3-5 support soldiers for each frontline infantry. Russia is lucky to have 1:1. These support jobs don't require the huge amount training that would normally accompany something specialized like an artillery or tanker unit so having half a million untrained people in these reserve forces isn't necessarily useless towards helping the soldiers on the front line.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:38 PM on October 12, 2022 [10 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
Ukraine had the resources to stop the initial invasion, giving it time to train new troops. Unlike Russia it also hasn't lost a bunch of generals and commanders.
Second, it had an army since the 2014 Russian invasion committed to a full upgrade from Soviet style doctrine to modern flexible command, and has been training for exactly this war, with motivated and supplied troops operating with a home court advantage.
Russia by contrast half- or quarter-assed all preparation and training, did not apparently train for this specific war, and has a command system with very few decision makers, which greatly inhibits their ability to out-think and out-maneuver Ukraine in the field. As a result the decision makers have to move up front to affect the war, making them vulnerable targets. And many have died, making them unavailable to train new recruits.
posted by zippy at 7:42 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ukraine had the resources to stop the initial invasion, giving it time to train new troops. Unlike Russia it also hasn't lost a bunch of generals and commanders.
Second, it had an army since the 2014 Russian invasion committed to a full upgrade from Soviet style doctrine to modern flexible command, and has been training for exactly this war, with motivated and supplied troops operating with a home court advantage.
Russia by contrast half- or quarter-assed all preparation and training, did not apparently train for this specific war, and has a command system with very few decision makers, which greatly inhibits their ability to out-think and out-maneuver Ukraine in the field. As a result the decision makers have to move up front to affect the war, making them vulnerable targets. And many have died, making them unavailable to train new recruits.
posted by zippy at 7:42 PM on October 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
I know you’ve already gotten a couple of answers, but I’ll add on. During the summer, when the Russians were slowly grinding out gains in places like Mariupol and Severodonetsk, I saw reports that Ukraine was training hundreds of thousands of troops in the western part of the country. The plan was to hold Russia at bay as much as possible until the troops were trained and ready for a late summer counteroffensive. The troops were being trained with the help of the US and NATO and they were well equipped. They had a few months of training, plus western intelligence to help along the way. Contrast that with Russian conscripts - they get little training if that, a couple of days or a couple of weeks. They’re being issued substandard equipment and the Russian tactics have been abysmal. (I saw a post by someone who had been in the US Army, and they said they covered rudimentary tactics in the 8-10 week Basic Training, but that this was Ok because they would be continually training once they got out and into their units, and that’s where you become proficient.) To add to this, Mark Hertling, former commander of US Army Europe, said at the outset of the war that he thought the Ukrainians were going to win, because he’d seen Russian training up close and had helped train Ukrainians. He said Russian training was poor and even their newer equipment was not that impressive. He also said that the Russians were not great at combined arms warfare, which is complex, and that once the Ukrainians got good at that, look out. He turned out to be prescient.
One other thing is that Russian force command is very top heavy. They have almost nothing as far as NCOs (non-commissioned officers, like Sargeants.) US forces have a major emphasis on NCOs. This allows a lot of delegation of authority and giving forces freedom on figuring out the best way to accomplish a mission. It also provides a lot of redundancy, so if a force suffers heavy losses or if people get cut off from each other, there’s still a command structure in place. Ask anyone in the US military how the force would function without a robust NCO structure and they’re going to just shake their heads.
posted by azpenguin at 7:53 PM on October 12, 2022 [15 favorites]
I know you’ve already gotten a couple of answers, but I’ll add on. During the summer, when the Russians were slowly grinding out gains in places like Mariupol and Severodonetsk, I saw reports that Ukraine was training hundreds of thousands of troops in the western part of the country. The plan was to hold Russia at bay as much as possible until the troops were trained and ready for a late summer counteroffensive. The troops were being trained with the help of the US and NATO and they were well equipped. They had a few months of training, plus western intelligence to help along the way. Contrast that with Russian conscripts - they get little training if that, a couple of days or a couple of weeks. They’re being issued substandard equipment and the Russian tactics have been abysmal. (I saw a post by someone who had been in the US Army, and they said they covered rudimentary tactics in the 8-10 week Basic Training, but that this was Ok because they would be continually training once they got out and into their units, and that’s where you become proficient.) To add to this, Mark Hertling, former commander of US Army Europe, said at the outset of the war that he thought the Ukrainians were going to win, because he’d seen Russian training up close and had helped train Ukrainians. He said Russian training was poor and even their newer equipment was not that impressive. He also said that the Russians were not great at combined arms warfare, which is complex, and that once the Ukrainians got good at that, look out. He turned out to be prescient.
One other thing is that Russian force command is very top heavy. They have almost nothing as far as NCOs (non-commissioned officers, like Sargeants.) US forces have a major emphasis on NCOs. This allows a lot of delegation of authority and giving forces freedom on figuring out the best way to accomplish a mission. It also provides a lot of redundancy, so if a force suffers heavy losses or if people get cut off from each other, there’s still a command structure in place. Ask anyone in the US military how the force would function without a robust NCO structure and they’re going to just shake their heads.
posted by azpenguin at 7:53 PM on October 12, 2022 [15 favorites]
Hertling has been part of the effort to provide Ukraine with their equivalent of Friedrich Von Steuben.
When the dust settles from this war, Russia will need the same favor, and America could provide it. For a price: putting an end to the Russian empire and making this "Russian Federation" a real thing.
posted by ocschwar at 8:02 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
When the dust settles from this war, Russia will need the same favor, and America could provide it. For a price: putting an end to the Russian empire and making this "Russian Federation" a real thing.
posted by ocschwar at 8:02 PM on October 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
February:
Ukrainians Google ‘how to make a molotov cocktail’ after defense minister’s call to arms
I don't need a ride, I need ammunition.
September:
'How to leave Russia' Google searches surge in the country as Putin declares partial military mobilization
I don't need ammunition, I need a ride.
posted by adept256 at 8:15 PM on October 12, 2022 [59 favorites]
Ukrainians Google ‘how to make a molotov cocktail’ after defense minister’s call to arms
I don't need a ride, I need ammunition.
September:
'How to leave Russia' Google searches surge in the country as Putin declares partial military mobilization
I don't need ammunition, I need a ride.
posted by adept256 at 8:15 PM on October 12, 2022 [59 favorites]
Is there actually likely to be a winter lull?
Ukraine Offensive Will Push Through Winter, U.S. Defense Chief Says
posted by BungaDunga at 9:05 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine Offensive Will Push Through Winter, U.S. Defense Chief Says
posted by BungaDunga at 9:05 PM on October 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Coming back to the rail thing, that people/cargo thing is about traffic priority and who gets a better experience. Ukraine certainly moves cargo by rail, especially military since they inherited the rail based Soviet military logistics. Cargo is hampered by the change in gauge and lower degree of containerisation, but the Solidarity Lanes have been doing brisk business - I was talking to people involved by the Ukrainian border and they're running 24/7 and drowning in Ukrainian grain.
Re trees, I think they have the same rules as Poland, no trees allowed X metres from the tracks. Used to be more about coal engine fires, but helps with leaves and branches falling on the power lines too. In winter it's storms that are dangerous to power lines, plus ice on the switches and signalling equipment.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:48 PM on October 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
Re trees, I think they have the same rules as Poland, no trees allowed X metres from the tracks. Used to be more about coal engine fires, but helps with leaves and branches falling on the power lines too. In winter it's storms that are dangerous to power lines, plus ice on the switches and signalling equipment.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:48 PM on October 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
They gave German engineers six months to solve a problem and gambled that they would fail. On top of this, they put chips on Germans losing the will to fight because it gets cold at home.
Botox might give you a hell of a poker face, but Putin made a really dumb bet.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Botox might give you a hell of a poker face, but Putin made a really dumb bet.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 PM on October 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Russian Army could get its act together and properly train large numbers of soldiers in the winter lull. Are they likely to do that?
So how is Ukraine doing it?
To add my two (twitter-informed) cents on the topic:
The old Soviet system was based on a mass conscription strategy, where there are a bunch of units that primarily exist on paper, with the command structure in place full time and then a warehouse full of uniforms, weapons and equipment. If/when needed, the conscripts show up and fill up the unit; the commanders are expecting relatively raw conscripts but the commanders are expected to do the thinking anyways. This system was reformed in the post-Soviet era; it is very expensive to maintain. And, as it turns out anyway, it would probably have resulted in a bunch of empty warehouses and commanders with extremely nice dachas.
The US has a training system where recruits show up at Camp Whatever or Fort Somebody and get yelled at by R. Lee Ermey for a few months, then move into specialized training lasting a few months (or more depending on specialty), then move into their units. I assume that the Ukrainians are using something like this; for one, thousands of their soldiers have been trained overseas during the war, and for another, I'm sure since 2014 they asked Western countries about their training methods, and took notes.
Russia currently has (had?) a training system where the training is done within the units; recruits show up to the unit and are taught by the officers in the unit what to do while serving with them. But right now, the units are all in the middle of fighting so there's no chance to train someone beyond the minimum, and plenty of the experienced, trained, officers are not around anymore.
You can see an argument on either side of the coin; if soldiers train in their units, then they know their officers, they learn the tasks they need to do their jobs, they build cohesion. If soldiers are training in a separate structure, you have to do work to make sure what they are learning is relevant, and that they can come together to form effective units. But right now, I'm real sure that the Ukrainian trainers know what is relevant (especially since this is in some ways year 8 of the war for them), and Ukrainian troops are dripping with cohesion.
As it turns out, if you're looking to do impressive exercises and send a few units here or there, the Russian system works okay. But right now, they don't have a real pipeline for properly trained troops, while Ukraine does.
posted by Superilla at 12:07 AM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
To add my two (twitter-informed) cents on the topic:
The old Soviet system was based on a mass conscription strategy, where there are a bunch of units that primarily exist on paper, with the command structure in place full time and then a warehouse full of uniforms, weapons and equipment. If/when needed, the conscripts show up and fill up the unit; the commanders are expecting relatively raw conscripts but the commanders are expected to do the thinking anyways. This system was reformed in the post-Soviet era; it is very expensive to maintain. And, as it turns out anyway, it would probably have resulted in a bunch of empty warehouses and commanders with extremely nice dachas.
The US has a training system where recruits show up at Camp Whatever or Fort Somebody and get yelled at by R. Lee Ermey for a few months, then move into specialized training lasting a few months (or more depending on specialty), then move into their units. I assume that the Ukrainians are using something like this; for one, thousands of their soldiers have been trained overseas during the war, and for another, I'm sure since 2014 they asked Western countries about their training methods, and took notes.
Russia currently has (had?) a training system where the training is done within the units; recruits show up to the unit and are taught by the officers in the unit what to do while serving with them. But right now, the units are all in the middle of fighting so there's no chance to train someone beyond the minimum, and plenty of the experienced, trained, officers are not around anymore.
You can see an argument on either side of the coin; if soldiers train in their units, then they know their officers, they learn the tasks they need to do their jobs, they build cohesion. If soldiers are training in a separate structure, you have to do work to make sure what they are learning is relevant, and that they can come together to form effective units. But right now, I'm real sure that the Ukrainian trainers know what is relevant (especially since this is in some ways year 8 of the war for them), and Ukrainian troops are dripping with cohesion.
As it turns out, if you're looking to do impressive exercises and send a few units here or there, the Russian system works okay. But right now, they don't have a real pipeline for properly trained troops, while Ukraine does.
posted by Superilla at 12:07 AM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
bartleby: To move supplies around, Ukraine would need to keep their own internal and international road links functioning through winter.
Ukrainian standard rail gauge is 1520mm, as is the Russian and Belarusian. Anything west of them is 1435mm, so you have to transload cargo. There's one wide gauge rail link from Ukraine 400km deep into Poland, single track, diesel traction.
Passenger trains get their bogies exchanged.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:37 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukrainian standard rail gauge is 1520mm, as is the Russian and Belarusian. Anything west of them is 1435mm, so you have to transload cargo. There's one wide gauge rail link from Ukraine 400km deep into Poland, single track, diesel traction.
Passenger trains get their bogies exchanged.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:37 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Retired US General Mark Hertling's remarks about military training in Russia and Ukraine has been linked before, I think, but is relevant still: I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
posted by Harald74 at 12:56 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:56 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
Another issue with Iron Dome from what I've heard is that Putin is effectively holding Russia's Jewish population hostage, insinuating that they will be persecuted if Israel steps out of line. (Declaring the Jewish Agency a “foreign agent” was part of this.)
posted by acb at 1:06 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:06 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
The UK MoD on the current situation on the ground in the south:
- After retreating around 20km in the north of the Kherson sector in early October, Russian forces are likely attempting to consolidate a new front line west from the village of Mylove.
- Heavy fighting continues along this line, especially at the western end where Ukrainian advances mean Russia’s flank is no longer protected by the Inhulets River. Most of the Russia troops on this front line remain understrength VDV (airborne) units.
- In recent days, the Russian occupation authorities have likely ordered preparation for the evacuation of some civilians from Kherson. It is likely that they anticipate combat extending to the city of Kherson itself.
As far as the energy situation in Europe goes, I imagine those LNG storage tanks would be very juicy targets for the sorts of Russian covert operations that blew up Czech stockpiles of Warsaw Pact ammunition bound for Ukraine.
posted by acb at 1:09 AM on October 13, 2022
posted by acb at 1:09 AM on October 13, 2022
Gah, the Ormen Lange gas field "shore station" in Norway (I don't know the correct English nomenclature) is being evacuated as we speak (Google Translate). It provides 20% of the UK gas demand.
posted by Harald74 at 1:14 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:14 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukrainian standard rail gauge is 1520mm, as is the Russian and Belarusian. Anything west of them is 1435mm, so you have to transload cargo. There's one wide gauge rail link from Ukraine 400km deep into Poland, single track, diesel traction.
What happened to the Austro-Hungarian-Empire-era standard-gauge rail link through the mountains of western Ukraine? Did they bring that back into service? Or is Orbán's intransigence rendering it moot?
posted by acb at 1:19 AM on October 13, 2022
What happened to the Austro-Hungarian-Empire-era standard-gauge rail link through the mountains of western Ukraine? Did they bring that back into service? Or is Orbán's intransigence rendering it moot?
posted by acb at 1:19 AM on October 13, 2022
The Ormen Lange incident seems to be a phoned-in bomb threat.
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
acb: What happened to the Austro-Hungarian-Empire-era standard-gauge rail link through the mountains of western Ukraine?
There are currently some odd sections of standard gauge rail on the Ukrainian side of the borders with Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, but nothing substantial, and especially not deeper into Ukraine. The longest one runs from Chop (UA) to the border near Satu Mare (RO), and is side by side with a broad gauge track.
There are also broad gauge rail links between Uzhhorod and Kosice (SK) 50km further west, mainly used for the steel works there, and Chop and Zahony (HU).
posted by Stoneshop at 2:17 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
There are currently some odd sections of standard gauge rail on the Ukrainian side of the borders with Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, but nothing substantial, and especially not deeper into Ukraine. The longest one runs from Chop (UA) to the border near Satu Mare (RO), and is side by side with a broad gauge track.
There are also broad gauge rail links between Uzhhorod and Kosice (SK) 50km further west, mainly used for the steel works there, and Chop and Zahony (HU).
posted by Stoneshop at 2:17 AM on October 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Norwegian police say threat against major gas plant resolved
posted by chavenet at 3:19 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 3:19 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Politico.eu name Putin as number one on their inaugural green list.
It took a war criminal to speed up Europe’s green revolution.
By invading Ukraine and manipulating energy supplies to undermine European support for Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin has achieved something generations of green campaigners could not — clean energy is now a fundamental matter of European security.
posted by roolya_boolya at 3:39 AM on October 13, 2022 [39 favorites]
It took a war criminal to speed up Europe’s green revolution.
By invading Ukraine and manipulating energy supplies to undermine European support for Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin has achieved something generations of green campaigners could not — clean energy is now a fundamental matter of European security.
posted by roolya_boolya at 3:39 AM on October 13, 2022 [39 favorites]
Apparently the mobilisation is going so well that blind people are now assigned as driver for MT-LBs
There are two rows of some kind of cylinders on the road. Nah, I'll just drive over them.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:17 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
There are two rows of some kind of cylinders on the road. Nah, I'll just drive over them.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:17 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
I just cannot with the tank mines.
"Where do we put these mines?"
"The road. That's where the tanks are."
"But it'll take time to bore holes--"
"No. Just lay them out."
"But they'll see--"
"Possibly."
"They'll drive around them!"
"No."
"..."
"They've been told to stay on the roads or their tanks will get mired in mud."
"But they'll clear them off the road!"
"No."
"..."
"They're afraid of being shot by snipers."
"So they'll drive the tanks over the tank mines laid in plain sight on the road."
"Da."
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:46 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
"Where do we put these mines?"
"The road. That's where the tanks are."
"But it'll take time to bore holes--"
"No. Just lay them out."
"But they'll see--"
"Possibly."
"They'll drive around them!"
"No."
"..."
"They've been told to stay on the roads or their tanks will get mired in mud."
"But they'll clear them off the road!"
"No."
"..."
"They're afraid of being shot by snipers."
"So they'll drive the tanks over the tank mines laid in plain sight on the road."
"Da."
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:46 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
I've seen comments that these may be Russian laid tank mines which, even deeper level of stupid.
Still, that's literally a video of several people dying in the definition of preventable way.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:58 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
Still, that's literally a video of several people dying in the definition of preventable way.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:58 AM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
The last ones to leave are the ones laying the mines. Those people must understand their value by being ordered to do this, it's not surprising they DGAF and want to get it done in a hurry.
posted by adept256 at 6:00 AM on October 13, 2022
posted by adept256 at 6:00 AM on October 13, 2022
And you thought the traffic jams on your commute were bad?
Satellite images of the Kerch Strait ferry terminal showing a bit of a backlog. This is the north end, trucks leaving Crimea for the Russian mainland. The ferry terminal at the south end is on a narrow peninsula, so likely little buffer space immediately next to the terminal. There's a buffer lot a dozen or so kilometers away, but that one will be totally stuffed if the images from the north end are anything to go by. These two images show a disused airfield 20km away.
The terminals also have facilities for rail ferries, but these images don't show how much use they're getting. Repair work is being done both on the road bridge and the damaged spans of the rail bridge, with no indication that trains are running again save for a few tests and some propaganda images.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:05 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Satellite images of the Kerch Strait ferry terminal showing a bit of a backlog. This is the north end, trucks leaving Crimea for the Russian mainland. The ferry terminal at the south end is on a narrow peninsula, so likely little buffer space immediately next to the terminal. There's a buffer lot a dozen or so kilometers away, but that one will be totally stuffed if the images from the north end are anything to go by. These two images show a disused airfield 20km away.
The terminals also have facilities for rail ferries, but these images don't show how much use they're getting. Repair work is being done both on the road bridge and the damaged spans of the rail bridge, with no indication that trains are running again save for a few tests and some propaganda images.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:05 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
So how is Ukraine doing it?
The United Kingdom has also been training soldiers. This article describes 10,000 troops that went in July and, from some reports, got back to Ukraine just before the counteroffensive started. They also were equipped with fresh weapons and supplies.
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:11 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
The United Kingdom has also been training soldiers. This article describes 10,000 troops that went in July and, from some reports, got back to Ukraine just before the counteroffensive started. They also were equipped with fresh weapons and supplies.
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:11 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
As I understand it, recruits from more than six months ago were only recently being rotated into action on the Ukrainian side.
There have also been plenty of articles about the Ukrainians throwing in minimally- or untrained soldiers (like Territorial Defense) to try and hold lines until properly trained soldiers could be brought through the pipeline.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:45 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
There have also been plenty of articles about the Ukrainians throwing in minimally- or untrained soldiers (like Territorial Defense) to try and hold lines until properly trained soldiers could be brought through the pipeline.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:45 AM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Even if Hungary wanted to make that link available (switching gauges in Zahony) would it add much? Seems like it would be the long way around to get there, and then a long way around within Ukraine. The rail bridge at the Tisza looks kinda narrow, too, but maybe my sense of scale is off if the tracks are wider than I'm used to.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:49 AM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:49 AM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Looking more closely, seems that link has both gauges on one track. Here's an EU site's note about it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:58 AM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:58 AM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Both Estonia and Canada have pledged new donations of winter gear. I suspect that the Russians will do most of the freezing this year. Having had arctic warfare training myself, I can't really imagine how sucky it would be to go a whole winter without. Especially since keeping warm equals being visible on thermal sensors.
posted by Harald74 at 7:10 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:10 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Russian military, pretty much since world war II, has not been used to fight an actual army but to brutalize civilian populations (e.g., Chechnya, Syria). They've gotten pretty good at that. As for training their soldiers, the method appears to be to brutalize the recruits until they get how it's done and are willing to do it to someone else.
When they get really mad, you'll note, they start torturing civilians or lobbing missiles into Kyiv.
Unfortunately for the Russians, Ukrainian civilians are not the ones attacking them. That's the Ukrainian army, which continues to take back territory even as the Russians are wasting their equipment blowing up schools and parks and apartment buildings.
Obviously it's possible for them to develop and train a competent army. Ukraine appears to have done it, and within living memory both sides in this war were all the same country. But for a variety of reasons, Russia seems unwilling to do so, and certainly can't do it in the time they've got before this all goes so far to shit that they can't even pretend it's working anymore.
posted by Naberius at 7:11 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
When they get really mad, you'll note, they start torturing civilians or lobbing missiles into Kyiv.
Unfortunately for the Russians, Ukrainian civilians are not the ones attacking them. That's the Ukrainian army, which continues to take back territory even as the Russians are wasting their equipment blowing up schools and parks and apartment buildings.
Obviously it's possible for them to develop and train a competent army. Ukraine appears to have done it, and within living memory both sides in this war were all the same country. But for a variety of reasons, Russia seems unwilling to do so, and certainly can't do it in the time they've got before this all goes so far to shit that they can't even pretend it's working anymore.
posted by Naberius at 7:11 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
snuffleupagus: The rail bridge at the Tisza looks kinda narrow, too, but maybe my sense of scale is off if the tracks are wider than I'm used to.
It carries both track widths, intertwined. Counting from the left in that picture rails 1 and 3 are the standard gauge, tracks 2 and 4 are wide gauge, and evidently used less.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:22 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
It carries both track widths, intertwined. Counting from the left in that picture rails 1 and 3 are the standard gauge, tracks 2 and 4 are wide gauge, and evidently used less.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:22 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Both Estonia and Canada have pledged new donations of winter gear. I suspect that the Russians will do most of the freezing this year. Having had arctic warfare training myself, I can't really imagine how sucky it would be to go a whole winter without. Especially since keeping warm equals being visible on thermal sensors.
Does mylar lining in your clothes do anything to reduce your IR signature?
posted by ocschwar at 7:46 AM on October 13, 2022
Maybe, but it will trap moisture from your body and freeze you.
posted by Harald74 at 7:51 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:51 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
Having had arctic warfare training myself, I can't really imagine how sucky it would be to go a whole winter without. Especially since keeping warm equals being visible on thermal sensors.
Having had zero arctic warfare training myself, but based on working on a grade beam construction in an exposed field one winter, I have a glimmer of an idea. Life can be complicated under cold conditions (materials responding to temperature is just one aspect). It is truly horrifying, to think of what is coming.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:59 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
Having had zero arctic warfare training myself, but based on working on a grade beam construction in an exposed field one winter, I have a glimmer of an idea. Life can be complicated under cold conditions (materials responding to temperature is just one aspect). It is truly horrifying, to think of what is coming.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:59 AM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
I remember a story from the winter war between Finland and the USSR.
A Russian patrol enters a Finnish camp. All the soldiers are off on a mission, so there's no resistance. There's just the cook. He's not hard to find, they are immediately drawn to the mess by the fragrance of sausage and potato stew. He knows what they want, so he serves them. Seconds? Sure! You want more? OK!
So the Russians have the first square meal they've had in months. Patting their bellies in satisfaction, they emerge to find they are surrounded by the Finnish army. Kind of like Goldilocks - 'ah, just right' - then seeing the bears.
I don't know the facts of this, but it's as true as any fable. If you don't meet the human needs of your soldiers, they can't do the job properly.
posted by adept256 at 8:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
A Russian patrol enters a Finnish camp. All the soldiers are off on a mission, so there's no resistance. There's just the cook. He's not hard to find, they are immediately drawn to the mess by the fragrance of sausage and potato stew. He knows what they want, so he serves them. Seconds? Sure! You want more? OK!
So the Russians have the first square meal they've had in months. Patting their bellies in satisfaction, they emerge to find they are surrounded by the Finnish army. Kind of like Goldilocks - 'ah, just right' - then seeing the bears.
I don't know the facts of this, but it's as true as any fable. If you don't meet the human needs of your soldiers, they can't do the job properly.
posted by adept256 at 8:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
I would imagine that any winter clothing would lower your IR signature just by insulating your body and trapping the heat inside. What really makes you stand out is having to light a fire to keep warm because your jacket or boots are no good.
posted by being_quiet at 8:33 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by being_quiet at 8:33 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
So there are facts, I made it sound like a fairy-tale. It was actually quite gruesome. Medium.com
Even in their poor condition, the Soviet troops pushed forward into the eastern village of Ilomantsi in a surprise attack on the 10th of December. The soldiers should have emerged victorious from the village, but their victory escaped them because they were starving for food. Their hunger was finally satiated by the sausage stew that was sitting in the tents of Finnish soldiers.posted by adept256 at 8:43 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
The sausage stew was just one of the meat-filled rations that the Finnish soldiers had been consuming to prepare them for a confrontation with Soviet soldiers. The Soviet soldiers began to overindulge their cravings and wasted precious time eating the stew. It is during this delay that the Finnish were able to regain the upper hand against the Soviets. As the Soviet soldiers consumed the food before them, the Finnish forces initiated a surprise attack of their own.
The Finnish soldiers showed no mercy to the starving Russian soldiers and charged at them with bayonets. What ensued can only be described as the chaos of war. The battle featured up close hand-to-hand combat and saw the deaths of many Russian soldiers in a gruesome manner. The Soviets were left shell-shocked at what had happened. In just a few moments, the Finnish soldiers tore apart the ranks of the Red Army. The entire scene can only be described as a bloodbath.
I don't know the facts of this, but it's as true as any fable. If you don't meet the human needs of your soldiers, they can't do the job properly.
My grandparents on my father's side were both Finnish veterans of the Winter War and Continuation War, so in addition to having a head full of first-hand accounts, I've done a lot of reading on it over the years.
You're thinking of the battle of Varolampi Pond, which involved a strategic retreat and counterattack. Known apocryphally as the "Sausage War," it's been mythologized quite a bit. But yes, the Soviet rations sucked (tea and bread) and it was freezing cold out, so the prospect of hot food was a useful distraction.
When I was a kid, my grandmother used to stuff cat fur from her cat's brush into our shoes when they took us ice fishing. They knew the value of staying warm by any means necessary, let's put it that way.
All of which is to say that non-lethal aid like warm winter gear and hot food are going to be as important to Ukraine as weapons shipments.
The Russian military, pretty much since world war II, has not been used to fight an actual army but to brutalize civilian populations (e.g., Chechnya, Syria). They've gotten pretty good at that. As for training their soldiers, the method appears to be to brutalize the recruits until they get how it's done and are willing to do it to someone else.
Arkady Babchenko's One Soldiers War is a good first-hand account of his experience in the first and second Chechen wars that gets into the details of this. It helps set the scene for why the shortcomings of the Russian military in Ukraine, while a bit surprising in the ridiculous amount of daylight there is between Russian propaganda and hard reality, isn't a complete and total shock.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:14 AM on October 13, 2022 [21 favorites]
My grandparents on my father's side were both Finnish veterans of the Winter War and Continuation War, so in addition to having a head full of first-hand accounts, I've done a lot of reading on it over the years.
You're thinking of the battle of Varolampi Pond, which involved a strategic retreat and counterattack. Known apocryphally as the "Sausage War," it's been mythologized quite a bit. But yes, the Soviet rations sucked (tea and bread) and it was freezing cold out, so the prospect of hot food was a useful distraction.
When I was a kid, my grandmother used to stuff cat fur from her cat's brush into our shoes when they took us ice fishing. They knew the value of staying warm by any means necessary, let's put it that way.
All of which is to say that non-lethal aid like warm winter gear and hot food are going to be as important to Ukraine as weapons shipments.
The Russian military, pretty much since world war II, has not been used to fight an actual army but to brutalize civilian populations (e.g., Chechnya, Syria). They've gotten pretty good at that. As for training their soldiers, the method appears to be to brutalize the recruits until they get how it's done and are willing to do it to someone else.
Arkady Babchenko's One Soldiers War is a good first-hand account of his experience in the first and second Chechen wars that gets into the details of this. It helps set the scene for why the shortcomings of the Russian military in Ukraine, while a bit surprising in the ridiculous amount of daylight there is between Russian propaganda and hard reality, isn't a complete and total shock.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:14 AM on October 13, 2022 [21 favorites]
Ah, sorry, I see that adept256's link talks about Varolampi Pond as well!
It does a good job of laying out how one of the things that the Winter War led to was Hitler's conviction that the Soviets would crumble owing to the unexpectedly poor performance in Finland. Of course, things didn't go as planned. And one of the reasons (there are a bunch) was that the Soviets came to understand the folly of having Stalin micromanage the war. It's fortunate for Ukraine how that lesson seems to have gone unheeded by Putin.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
It does a good job of laying out how one of the things that the Winter War led to was Hitler's conviction that the Soviets would crumble owing to the unexpectedly poor performance in Finland. Of course, things didn't go as planned. And one of the reasons (there are a bunch) was that the Soviets came to understand the folly of having Stalin micromanage the war. It's fortunate for Ukraine how that lesson seems to have gone unheeded by Putin.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:25 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yes, and one side had lend-lease and one didn't. Another remarkable parallell with today.
posted by Harald74 at 9:38 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:38 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
One side? Russia still has lend-lease rations.
posted by adept256 at 9:45 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 9:45 AM on October 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
They did pull out some 1943 vintage artillery also, but was manufactured in the Soviet Union.
posted by Harald74 at 9:51 AM on October 13, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 9:51 AM on October 13, 2022
Which is fucking crazy.
Do you want to be the one standing next to the gun when you have loaded an eighty year old shell into an 80 year old gun? Not me
posted by Windopaene at 10:15 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Do you want to be the one standing next to the gun when you have loaded an eighty year old shell into an 80 year old gun? Not me
posted by Windopaene at 10:15 AM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
"In N. America, they move cargo by rail and people by road; in Europe they move people by rail and cargo by road."
Rail in the post-Soviet states is actually more similar to rail in North America than it is to rail in western Europe. The Soviet model of rail construction favored freight, in order to supply heavy industry with goods (particularly in the 'steel belt' of Ukraine, Slovakia, parts of Romania, etc.), at the cost of passenger speed. (They also adopted automatic couplers, modeled on American types, much earlier than Europe, and they can conduct American-style freight yard operations as a result.) The major differences are that Russia was much later to containerize (lotta boxcars), but managed to electrify much more of its lines.
Russia does have some high-speed passenger trains (e.g. the Moscow-to-St.Petersburg Сапсан train, or the former Moscow-to-Nizhny Стриж), but they have many of the same problems as Acela, with the lines often running far below maximum trainset speeds due to congestion and track issues.
All the video I've seen coming out of Ukraine and adjacent regions recently is indicative of relatively low-speed trains using traditional heavyweight cars on mixed pax/freight lines.
In theory this might provide an opportunity for the US to assist with logistics and system operation, but TBH I think it's quite possible that the Ukrainians are better at operating a railroad under wartime conditions than anyone in the US. We might want to send some Amtrak folks over to study how they manage it.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:16 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
Rail in the post-Soviet states is actually more similar to rail in North America than it is to rail in western Europe. The Soviet model of rail construction favored freight, in order to supply heavy industry with goods (particularly in the 'steel belt' of Ukraine, Slovakia, parts of Romania, etc.), at the cost of passenger speed. (They also adopted automatic couplers, modeled on American types, much earlier than Europe, and they can conduct American-style freight yard operations as a result.) The major differences are that Russia was much later to containerize (lotta boxcars), but managed to electrify much more of its lines.
Russia does have some high-speed passenger trains (e.g. the Moscow-to-St.Petersburg Сапсан train, or the former Moscow-to-Nizhny Стриж), but they have many of the same problems as Acela, with the lines often running far below maximum trainset speeds due to congestion and track issues.
All the video I've seen coming out of Ukraine and adjacent regions recently is indicative of relatively low-speed trains using traditional heavyweight cars on mixed pax/freight lines.
In theory this might provide an opportunity for the US to assist with logistics and system operation, but TBH I think it's quite possible that the Ukrainians are better at operating a railroad under wartime conditions than anyone in the US. We might want to send some Amtrak folks over to study how they manage it.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:16 AM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
Meanwhile, many Russian soldiers are using thin cloth footwraps because their country cannot provide basic socks.
It's even worse than you could imagine. The Russian army abandoned footwraps finally in 2013, along with presumably the cultural knowledge of how to wrap them without causing blisters or ulceration. Seriously, a crucial component of basic training was how to apply your footwraps correctly.
These poor kids won't just be getting frostbite, but also septicemia.
posted by ivan ivanych samovar at 11:39 AM on October 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
It's even worse than you could imagine. The Russian army abandoned footwraps finally in 2013, along with presumably the cultural knowledge of how to wrap them without causing blisters or ulceration. Seriously, a crucial component of basic training was how to apply your footwraps correctly.
These poor kids won't just be getting frostbite, but also septicemia.
posted by ivan ivanych samovar at 11:39 AM on October 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
There are plenty of Youtube videos showing how to put on foot wraps.
posted by ocschwar at 1:25 PM on October 13, 2022
posted by ocschwar at 1:25 PM on October 13, 2022
progosk: Having to stock up with material from Iran seems precisely like something you’d need to do when you’ve run out of your own.
Parts found after a missile impact can indicate how many missiles of that type are left. Of course, that's not a hard number, but in general it won't be way off especially if the part found is something commercially available supplied by a third party. If one of those says '03-19' you can date the missile as being not older than March 2019, and with a production volume of 3 per month make an informed estimate that Russia is down to their last 100 at most. Unless they actually still have many more and just took the one closest to the loading dock, instead of the oldest as one should.
(estimating enemy production capacity became a nearly scientific endeavor in WW2, with Army engineers noting and correlating serial numbers on all kinds of parts on captured or demolished enemy equipment)
posted by Stoneshop at 1:50 PM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
Parts found after a missile impact can indicate how many missiles of that type are left. Of course, that's not a hard number, but in general it won't be way off especially if the part found is something commercially available supplied by a third party. If one of those says '03-19' you can date the missile as being not older than March 2019, and with a production volume of 3 per month make an informed estimate that Russia is down to their last 100 at most. Unless they actually still have many more and just took the one closest to the loading dock, instead of the oldest as one should.
(estimating enemy production capacity became a nearly scientific endeavor in WW2, with Army engineers noting and correlating serial numbers on all kinds of parts on captured or demolished enemy equipment)
posted by Stoneshop at 1:50 PM on October 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
The major differences are that Russia was much later to containerize
Isn't Russia containerising its freight still in the future?
posted by acb at 1:51 PM on October 13, 2022
Isn't Russia containerising its freight still in the future?
posted by acb at 1:51 PM on October 13, 2022
There are plenty of Youtube videos showing how to put on foot wraps.
Or they can use the earth moving equipment they used to dig those trenches mentioned earlier to dig some dugouts. A hole underground is pretty easy to keep warmer than the air temperature, even without fired heat.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:26 PM on October 13, 2022
Or they can use the earth moving equipment they used to dig those trenches mentioned earlier to dig some dugouts. A hole underground is pretty easy to keep warmer than the air temperature, even without fired heat.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:26 PM on October 13, 2022
They need to figure out how to build sturdy enough lids for their dugouts because pit + open skylight + infrared adds up to a drop-dropped grenade getting amplified by the walls and killing all the occupants.
posted by ocschwar at 2:53 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 2:53 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
So how to do foot wraps is on youtube. I hear that Russian soldiers aren't supposed to have smartphones. And I'm dubious about people who aren't used to footwraps getting it right every time under stress.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:00 PM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:00 PM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
We might want to send some Amtrak folks over to study how they manage it.
posted by Kadin2048
Why would we do that. Why place Amtrak folks in harms way. The 757th Expeditionary Rail Center are the folks.
Bringing the U.S. in for analogies, for a point of view is difficult, but at least get it right.
And I'm dubious about people who aren't used to footwraps getting it right every time under stress.
Over 300 years later, Russian soldiers get socks 2013. But tubing war+socks+Russia should, should give a nice cultural and military history of the Russian footwrap.
posted by clavdivs at 3:42 PM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Kadin2048
Why would we do that. Why place Amtrak folks in harms way. The 757th Expeditionary Rail Center are the folks.
Bringing the U.S. in for analogies, for a point of view is difficult, but at least get it right.
And I'm dubious about people who aren't used to footwraps getting it right every time under stress.
Over 300 years later, Russian soldiers get socks 2013. But tubing war+socks+Russia should, should give a nice cultural and military history of the Russian footwrap.
posted by clavdivs at 3:42 PM on October 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Germany has reached 95% of storage capacity for gas, which is faster than expected.
From the linked article:
This still means that German industry, business and private households need to reduce usage by at least 20% this winter. The amount of gas currently in storage is roughly equivalent to two cold winter months.
LNG terminals which are being built on the German coast are expected to be operational starting by the end of this year.
Across the EU, gas storage is at 91% capacity and rising.
posted by UN at 4:54 PM on October 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
From the linked article:
This still means that German industry, business and private households need to reduce usage by at least 20% this winter. The amount of gas currently in storage is roughly equivalent to two cold winter months.
LNG terminals which are being built on the German coast are expected to be operational starting by the end of this year.
Across the EU, gas storage is at 91% capacity and rising.
posted by UN at 4:54 PM on October 13, 2022 [12 favorites]
Meanwhile, let's check in on ol' Elon. From CNN, "Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab":
Documents obtained by CNN show that last month Musk’s SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon saying it can no longer continue to fund the Starlink service as it has. The letter also requested that the Pentagon take over funding for Ukraine’s government and military use of Starlink, which SpaceX claims would cost more than $120 million for the rest of the year and could cost close to $400 million for the next 12 months.posted by mhum at 5:58 PM on October 13, 2022 [11 favorites]
“We are not in a position to further donate terminals to Ukraine, or fund the existing terminals for an indefinite period of time,” SpaceX’s director of government sales wrote to the Pentagon in the September letter.
[...]
Though Musk has received widespread acclaim and thanks for responding to requests for Starlink service to Ukraine right as the war was starting, in reality, the vast majority of the 20,000 terminals have received full or partial funding from outside sources, including the US government, the UK and Poland, according to the SpaceX letter to the Pentagon.
SpaceX’s request that the US military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has “the gall to look like heroes” while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month.
According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.)
[...]
Early US support for Starlink came via the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) which according to the Washington Post spent roughly $3 million on hardware and services in Ukraine. The largest single contributor of terminals, according to the newly obtained documents, is Poland with payment for almost 9,000 individual terminals.
The US has provided almost 1,700 terminals. Other contributors include the UK, NGOs and crowdfunding.
The far more expensive part, however, is the ongoing connectivity. SpaceX says it has paid for about 70% of the service provided to Ukraine and claims to have offered that highest level – $4,500 a month – to all terminals in Ukraine despite the majority only having signed on for the cheaper $500 per month service.
The terminals themselves cost $1500 and $2500 for the two models sent to Ukraine, the documents say, while consumer models on Starlink’s website are far cheaper and service in Ukraine is just $60 per month.
That’s just 1.3% of the service rate SpaceX says it needs the Pentagon to start paying.
“You could say he’s trying to get money from the government or just trying to say ‘I don’t want to be part of this anymore,’” said the person familiar with Ukraine’s requests for Starlink. Given the recent outages and Musk’s reputation for being unpredictable, “Feelings are running really high on the Ukrainian side,” this person said.
Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.)
'Costs' as in 'costs to provide' or as in 'this is what we charge end users for this service?'
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:16 PM on October 13, 2022 [20 favorites]
'Costs' as in 'costs to provide' or as in 'this is what we charge end users for this service?'
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:16 PM on October 13, 2022 [20 favorites]
SpaceX says it has paid for about 70% of the service provided to Ukraine and claims to have offered that highest level – $4,500 a month – to all terminals in Ukraine despite the majority only having signed on for the cheaper $500 per month service.
This is confusing. So has SpaceX 'given away' the supposed highest level service, and now wants the US/Polish governments to pay for that? Otherwise they'll drop it down to whatever their cheaper option is? Or is it all or nothing.
In either case: sanction the oligarchs.
posted by UN at 7:04 PM on October 13, 2022 [17 favorites]
This is confusing. So has SpaceX 'given away' the supposed highest level service, and now wants the US/Polish governments to pay for that? Otherwise they'll drop it down to whatever their cheaper option is? Or is it all or nothing.
In either case: sanction the oligarchs.
posted by UN at 7:04 PM on October 13, 2022 [17 favorites]
As an internet connectivity provider, Musk is starting to look as reliable as Russia as an energy provider.
posted by Reverend John at 7:45 PM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:45 PM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
That’s just 1.3% of the service rate SpaceX says it needs the Pentagon to start paying.
See? Takings clause starting to look like a bargain already.
posted by ctmf at 8:01 PM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
See? Takings clause starting to look like a bargain already.
posted by ctmf at 8:01 PM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
I go backpacking when I can. One thing that I learned early on is that you do NOT want to get cold. I spent one shivering night out on my second trip and it suuuuuucked. I got serious about making sure my gear was able to handle cold conditions after that.
Soldiers getting cold is a very serious problem if you’re going to try to keep a fighting force going. One example from backpacking is that yes, you may know to start a fire if you’re cold, but will you be able to do it if you’re shivering uncontrollably? Can you handle the lighter or matches well enough to get that fire going? Now imagine you’re a soldier with a Russian unit in Ukraine. It’s been below freezing for days. You’re struggling to stay warm. Then you encounter an enemy force. Will you be able to shoot straight, heck, will you be able to have enough manual dexterity to handle the rifle to get a shot off at all? The US military takes this very seriously, and special forces are trained in the rewarming drill. This drill has the soldiers march into an icy pond or lake in extremely cold temperatures, and they are made to stay there for 12 minutes. Then when given the OK to get out, they’re taught how to get themselves systematically warmed back up using the gear they have handy. Untrained conscripts with little to no decent winter gear vs a trained army with top-quality gear… the winter will not go well for the Russians at all.
posted by azpenguin at 8:43 PM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
Soldiers getting cold is a very serious problem if you’re going to try to keep a fighting force going. One example from backpacking is that yes, you may know to start a fire if you’re cold, but will you be able to do it if you’re shivering uncontrollably? Can you handle the lighter or matches well enough to get that fire going? Now imagine you’re a soldier with a Russian unit in Ukraine. It’s been below freezing for days. You’re struggling to stay warm. Then you encounter an enemy force. Will you be able to shoot straight, heck, will you be able to have enough manual dexterity to handle the rifle to get a shot off at all? The US military takes this very seriously, and special forces are trained in the rewarming drill. This drill has the soldiers march into an icy pond or lake in extremely cold temperatures, and they are made to stay there for 12 minutes. Then when given the OK to get out, they’re taught how to get themselves systematically warmed back up using the gear they have handy. Untrained conscripts with little to no decent winter gear vs a trained army with top-quality gear… the winter will not go well for the Russians at all.
posted by azpenguin at 8:43 PM on October 13, 2022 [10 favorites]
I know very little about military history but a few years ago I read a book about the Winter War and I recommend it highly. (The Winter War was Russia's disastrous (although ultimately successful) invasion of Finland in late 1939.)
posted by neuron at 8:46 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by neuron at 8:46 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
As an internet connectivity provider, Musk is starting to look as reliable as Russia as an energy provider.
This is the guy that will cancel your Tesla pre-order if you complain about him on a blog.
you may know to start a fire if you’re cold
No fires allowed, enforced by drones. Your toes or your life.
posted by ryanrs at 9:26 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is the guy that will cancel your Tesla pre-order if you complain about him on a blog.
you may know to start a fire if you’re cold
No fires allowed, enforced by drones. Your toes or your life.
posted by ryanrs at 9:26 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Why would we do that. Why place Amtrak folks in harms way. The 757th Expeditionary Rail Center are the folks. Bringing the U.S. in for analogies, for a point of view is difficult, but at least get it right.
Needling Amtrak there was a joke. Amtrak's problems are pretty clearly not related to a lack of knowledge of how things ought to be done.
Re the 757th ERC: they're stretched rather thin at the moment; the GAO has been at the Army for years to do a better job training the force that would be needed for a large-scale war in an area with rail infrastructure (and to stop using the ERC to move Army stuff around CONUS to save on freight costs). Maybe that recommendation will finally get some attention, based on what everyone is seeing in Ukraine about the continued importance of rail logistics.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:36 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Needling Amtrak there was a joke. Amtrak's problems are pretty clearly not related to a lack of knowledge of how things ought to be done.
Re the 757th ERC: they're stretched rather thin at the moment; the GAO has been at the Army for years to do a better job training the force that would be needed for a large-scale war in an area with rail infrastructure (and to stop using the ERC to move Army stuff around CONUS to save on freight costs). Maybe that recommendation will finally get some attention, based on what everyone is seeing in Ukraine about the continued importance of rail logistics.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:36 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
No fires allowed, enforced by drones. Your toes or your life.
Fires are one thing, but pity the poor bastard who has to drive around in a tank with a 1,000 HP diesel engine, in an environment cold enough to make his heat plume visible from space. I can't imagine that going very well for him.
And perversely, the Russian attempts to cut off Ukrainian energy supplies to freeze the population into submission, will only make Russian activity and limits of advance that much easier to spot.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:00 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Fires are one thing, but pity the poor bastard who has to drive around in a tank with a 1,000 HP diesel engine, in an environment cold enough to make his heat plume visible from space. I can't imagine that going very well for him.
And perversely, the Russian attempts to cut off Ukrainian energy supplies to freeze the population into submission, will only make Russian activity and limits of advance that much easier to spot.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:00 PM on October 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
I suspect the armed forces in Russia also have difficulties given the Dedovshchina - hazing would be a soft word for the kind of torture institutionalised through social structures. When your conscripts are also being brutalized, to the extent practiced in Russia, the structural issues are going to be extremely clear.
posted by geek anachronism at 11:04 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by geek anachronism at 11:04 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
azpenguin: One thing that I learned early on is that you do NOT want to get cold. I spent one shivering night out on my second trip and it suuuuuucked.
Norway, on a motorbike early october, some road over a plateau at 900m AMSL, time for dinner, next town was still an hour's ride away (hairpins in the dark, no thanks), so I pitched the tent, made dinner and crept into my sleeping bag. I'm fairly sure my gear at that time was at least as good as what current Russian recruits have today, with a small enough and capable tent, but that was one Grade A rotten sleepless cold night.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:05 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Norway, on a motorbike early october, some road over a plateau at 900m AMSL, time for dinner, next town was still an hour's ride away (hairpins in the dark, no thanks), so I pitched the tent, made dinner and crept into my sleeping bag. I'm fairly sure my gear at that time was at least as good as what current Russian recruits have today, with a small enough and capable tent, but that was one Grade A rotten sleepless cold night.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:05 PM on October 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
V1 actually, which was a bomb with a pulse jet engine and wings, flying a more or less horizontal trajectory towards its target. They were slightly faster than most fighter aircraft of the time, but the RAF still managed to shoot down a fair number of them.
They weren’t faster than the Spitfires at top speed so the preferred way to handle them if the AAA fire didn’t shoot it down them was to flip them by almost tapping wing tips from below so the V-1’s airspeed and air pressure sensors would get confused and cause it to crash into the ground. Shooting them down runs the risk of it exploding in front of the attacking plane taking it down as well (1000 lbs bomb is a lot of shrapnel for a plane that attacks 50-200 m away). Lost a number of pilots in early attempts to shoot them down the old fashioned way.
posted by jmauro at 11:21 PM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
They weren’t faster than the Spitfires at top speed so the preferred way to handle them if the AAA fire didn’t shoot it down them was to flip them by almost tapping wing tips from below so the V-1’s airspeed and air pressure sensors would get confused and cause it to crash into the ground. Shooting them down runs the risk of it exploding in front of the attacking plane taking it down as well (1000 lbs bomb is a lot of shrapnel for a plane that attacks 50-200 m away). Lost a number of pilots in early attempts to shoot them down the old fashioned way.
posted by jmauro at 11:21 PM on October 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russia is still, after months of trying, pressing on towards Bakhmut.
posted by Harald74 at 12:54 AM on October 14, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 12:54 AM on October 14, 2022
They need to figure out how to build sturdy enough lids for their dugouts
Do grenade-sumps not work these days (actual question)?
posted by pompomtom at 2:39 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Do grenade-sumps not work these days (actual question)?
posted by pompomtom at 2:39 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Some (many?) of the drone-dropped grenades have impact fuzes. They are re-purposed from 40mm automatic grenade launchers. I've seen the Russians drop regular old hand grenades from drones, though, so grenade sumps would still be a sensible precaution, I imagine.
posted by Harald74 at 3:15 AM on October 14, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 3:15 AM on October 14, 2022
The V2 was a ballistic missile with an actual rocket motor, basically unstoppable by anything available at the time, and a not too distant forefather of the Saturns that even took astronauts to the moon and back. Except that the V2 was supposed to go splat in some English city instead.
I Aim at the Stars, But Sometimes I Hit London
posted by rochrobbb at 3:56 AM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
I Aim at the Stars, But Sometimes I Hit London
posted by rochrobbb at 3:56 AM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Some (many?) of the drone-dropped grenades have impact fuzes.
Saw a vid the other day of a drone dropping such a grenade into a Russian trench*. It bounced off the target's helmet without exploding. Bloke looked knocked out, but OMFG.
...but yeah, good point.
*A Ukrainian trench, occupied by Russian soldiers, obviously...
posted by pompomtom at 4:12 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Saw a vid the other day of a drone dropping such a grenade into a Russian trench*. It bounced off the target's helmet without exploding. Bloke looked knocked out, but OMFG.
...but yeah, good point.
*A Ukrainian trench, occupied by Russian soldiers, obviously...
posted by pompomtom at 4:12 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
On the one hand SpaceX has spent a lot of money putting StarLink into orbit and it is not unreasonable for them to be paid for providing a useful service. On the other hand Elon Musk is a jackass. The Biden administration will probably write him a check and point out that under the Defense Production Act he doesn’t get to decide where he’ll be providing coverage or the profit margin.
posted by interogative mood at 4:53 AM on October 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:53 AM on October 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
The talk of evacuating civilians from Kherson makes me think that RF’s next move is to use civilian human shields for moving troops and supplies across the river. Ferries are under constant threat of bombardment (esp at dock), but they will just put a stack of orphans in each. Even easier to just pack some containers and hope the knowledge that some ferries are filled with civilians is enough.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 6:47 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 6:47 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
I must have missed it, Shitlord of Terra Elonicus Musk, first of his shame, has already clarified his stance and gone on to troll.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:26 AM on October 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:26 AM on October 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
I must mean "using kidnapped civilian human shields on an expanded scale" since they have been doing that more or less the whole time.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:04 AM on October 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:04 AM on October 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
We already know that Musk is a huge asshole. I have no idea what the situation is. A Unkrainian volunteer running a charity posted some thoughts about StarLinks earlier today.
From Dimko Zhluktenko @dim0kq on Twitter thread: Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine. ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield. It’s a game-changer.
Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in. The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket.
... I would be VERY curious to see actual transparency on the process of getting StarLinks up and running in Ukraine, all the hidden costs that Elon claims. Because - Ukrainians pay the same price as everyone else but it’s only Ukraine that is a subject to discussion for @elonmusk
posted by Bella Donna at 8:25 AM on October 14, 2022 [19 favorites]
From Dimko Zhluktenko @dim0kq on Twitter thread: Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine. ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield. It’s a game-changer.
Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in. The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket.
... I would be VERY curious to see actual transparency on the process of getting StarLinks up and running in Ukraine, all the hidden costs that Elon claims. Because - Ukrainians pay the same price as everyone else but it’s only Ukraine that is a subject to discussion for @elonmusk
posted by Bella Donna at 8:25 AM on October 14, 2022 [19 favorites]
What do you think of Peter Zeihan's ideas? He produces a lot of videos with the idea that demography (in particular, low birth rates) sets limits on what countries can do. One conclusion was that Putin invaded Ukraine, partly to secure Russia against invasion but also because the declining number of young people meant that the last chance for getting more territory was coming to an end.
If Zeihan is right, the way the war is playing out with hundreds of thousands of men fleeing mobilization (not to mention however many die) is a demographic disaster for Russia. I assume a lot of them won't be going back.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:35 AM on October 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
If Zeihan is right, the way the war is playing out with hundreds of thousands of men fleeing mobilization (not to mention however many die) is a demographic disaster for Russia. I assume a lot of them won't be going back.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:35 AM on October 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think he's charming and persuasive, but also that macro-econ (and population studies) tends to presumptively foreclose any other view despite manifestly falling short of actually being able to explain or predict everything. And he makes a lot of money on the lecture circuit mostly telling conservative interests things they want to hear. Or at least that they'd rather hear than other things.
And more specifically, I think there's more to Russian foreign policy and history and etc than its terrain and the gaps in its defensibility.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:51 AM on October 14, 2022 [13 favorites]
And more specifically, I think there's more to Russian foreign policy and history and etc than its terrain and the gaps in its defensibility.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:51 AM on October 14, 2022 [13 favorites]
Agreeing with snufflepagus here - he is definitely that guy that has an overly simplistic view of the conflict which from where I'm sitting is centered around a struggle of autocracy vs. democracy + demographic change + imperialistic landgrab, not just the demographic change that he focuses on. He also fails to take into account modern advances in drone warfare rendering those defensible channels moot for Russia as well as ignoring the role of the corrupted Russian state in enabling the conflict. I'd trust actual generals making commentary over this guy, in other words.
posted by thebotanyofsouls at 9:07 AM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by thebotanyofsouls at 9:07 AM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Putin claims the "partial mobilization" will be complete in two weeks, while reports of the first conscripts to die (without any training) have been acknowledged.
posted by meowzilla at 12:04 PM on October 14, 2022
posted by meowzilla at 12:04 PM on October 14, 2022
According to Olga Lautman @OlgaNYC1211, an analyst/researcher focused on the Kremlin, intel, and Eastern Europe (from her Twitter bio), "An employee of Wagner and an employee of FSB requested political asylum from France, Osechkin, head of Gulagu net project, told The Insider. According to him they are giving evidence that will help the international investigation of Russia's war crimes." So that is potentially a thing.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times has the article I have been wanting to read forever. It is called "Trolling helps show the king has no clothes: how Ukraine’s army conquered Twitter" and was written by Mehul Srivastava, Christopher Miller, and Roman Olearchyk.
Earlier this week, a small group of Ukrainians with expertise in video editing, communications and advertising decided to thank France for the weapons it had sent the country’s military.
“It’s France, so we knew we had to do something romantic,” said Anna, who helps create content for the team that manages the Ukraine defence ministry’s Twitter account and who asked that her real name not be used. “But it also had to remind them that they can do more.”
The resulting clip was posted on the ministry’s Twitter feed on Wednesday. Set to Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin’s recording of classic French ballad “Je T’aime Moi Non Plus (I Love You, Me Neither)”, the video features images of chocolates and flowers that segue into footage of French-donated Caesar 155mm howitzer artillery firing on Ukraine’s battlefields. “Thank you France,” the text reads. “Send us more.”
The clip racked up 1.5mn views and 31,000 retweets within 24 hours.
I accessed the article via a Tweet posted by one of the authors. I am not posting the URL from FT.com itself, because like time I did that the piece was paywalled.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:07 PM on October 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
Meanwhile, the Financial Times has the article I have been wanting to read forever. It is called "Trolling helps show the king has no clothes: how Ukraine’s army conquered Twitter" and was written by Mehul Srivastava, Christopher Miller, and Roman Olearchyk.
Earlier this week, a small group of Ukrainians with expertise in video editing, communications and advertising decided to thank France for the weapons it had sent the country’s military.
“It’s France, so we knew we had to do something romantic,” said Anna, who helps create content for the team that manages the Ukraine defence ministry’s Twitter account and who asked that her real name not be used. “But it also had to remind them that they can do more.”
The resulting clip was posted on the ministry’s Twitter feed on Wednesday. Set to Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin’s recording of classic French ballad “Je T’aime Moi Non Plus (I Love You, Me Neither)”, the video features images of chocolates and flowers that segue into footage of French-donated Caesar 155mm howitzer artillery firing on Ukraine’s battlefields. “Thank you France,” the text reads. “Send us more.”
The clip racked up 1.5mn views and 31,000 retweets within 24 hours.
I accessed the article via a Tweet posted by one of the authors. I am not posting the URL from FT.com itself, because like time I did that the piece was paywalled.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:07 PM on October 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
For example! When using a map of Japan to show the length of Ukraine’s frontline, the team included the Kuril Islands, the subject of a territorial dispute between Tokyo and Moscow, The comments exploded with Japanese users, surprised and grateful that Ukrainians were aware of the issue.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:12 PM on October 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 12:12 PM on October 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
The ultimate in trolling is visitkralovec.cz.
Královec is Czechia!
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:57 PM on October 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Královec is Czechia!
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:57 PM on October 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Everyone’s getting in on the act. Turku authorities refuse to remove Ukrainian flag from Russian consulate parking spot. Excerpt:
The colours of the Ukrainian flag, which were painted onto the parking spot reserved for the Russian Consulate General in the city of Turku, look set to remain in place, according to a report (siirryt toiseen palveluun) by the city's Turun Sanomat (TS) newspaper.posted by Kattullus at 1:05 PM on October 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
The flag was painted by a protestor on Wednesday morning to highlight his opposition to Russia's war on Ukraine, telling news media he was holding a "one-man referendum on whether the parking lot belongs to Russia or Ukraine."
"And the result of the referendum is that the spot belongs to Ukraine," protestor Jarno Virtala said.
That is a really great link. Please do not hate me, Kattullus, for not immediately recognising Turku as a city in Finland.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:20 PM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 1:20 PM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Královec is Czechia!
Is there any historical argument (tenuous or otherwise) backing Czech claims on Kaliningrad/Königsberg? My impression was that it was Prussian and before that part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
posted by acb at 2:11 PM on October 14, 2022
Is there any historical argument (tenuous or otherwise) backing Czech claims on Kaliningrad/Königsberg? My impression was that it was Prussian and before that part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
posted by acb at 2:11 PM on October 14, 2022
Bella Donna: Please do not hate me, Kattullus, for not immediately recognising Turku as a city in Finland.
To be fair, it’s Swedish name is Åbo, which isn’t close at all.
I was once in Sweden back when I lived in Tampere and was confused that no one I spoke to had heard of the second biggest city in Finland, but realized afterwards that in Swedish it’s Tammerfors.
posted by Kattullus at 2:28 PM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
To be fair, it’s Swedish name is Åbo, which isn’t close at all.
I was once in Sweden back when I lived in Tampere and was confused that no one I spoke to had heard of the second biggest city in Finland, but realized afterwards that in Swedish it’s Tammerfors.
posted by Kattullus at 2:28 PM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Polish-Czech joke about partitioning Russia’s Kaliningrad goes viral.
posted by clavdivs at 2:31 PM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 2:31 PM on October 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Kaliningrad, called Königsberg before the end of the WWII, was founded in honour of the 13th century Czech king Přemysl Otakar II, after he paid for the construction of a fortress during the crusades.
I had no idea! Apparently, since taking the territory back, they are planning on building a pipeline to get Pilsner (beer) up there - a very practical objective.
(Also, as Königsberg it was the hometown of Immanuel Kant who - fun fact - never traveled more than 150 km from where he was born. And he had a big head.)
posted by From Bklyn at 3:40 PM on October 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
I had no idea! Apparently, since taking the territory back, they are planning on building a pipeline to get Pilsner (beer) up there - a very practical objective.
(Also, as Königsberg it was the hometown of Immanuel Kant who - fun fact - never traveled more than 150 km from where he was born. And he had a big head.)
posted by From Bklyn at 3:40 PM on October 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
Kings and Generals has their newest video out: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - 6 Month Summary [23m], which is a summary video up through mid-Sept of the entire conflict. It is not a new chapter in their continuing series about the conflict.
posted by hippybear at 4:46 PM on October 14, 2022
posted by hippybear at 4:46 PM on October 14, 2022
I only know Koenigsberg because of its bridges.
posted by kaibutsu at 7:26 PM on October 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by kaibutsu at 7:26 PM on October 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
There is apparently a roundup of Russian milbloggers, inclusive WarGonzo, Igor "Strelkov" Girkin and whoever is running Gray Zone, Wagner's social media presence (CW: some low-res disturbing imagery if you scroll down on Twitter).
Girkin has apparently not been writing since Monday, so there's something up.
posted by Harald74 at 11:28 PM on October 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Girkin has apparently not been writing since Monday, so there's something up.
posted by Harald74 at 11:28 PM on October 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Immanuel Kant was a real piss-ant who was very rarely stable
(sorry)
They could name the Pilsner Pipeline after him.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:14 AM on October 15, 2022 [8 favorites]
(sorry)
They could name the Pilsner Pipeline after him.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:14 AM on October 15, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Polish Institute of International Affairs: Interview with Polish General Andrzejczak about the Russia-Ukraine war.
posted by Kabanos at 8:27 AM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 8:27 AM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
“Kyiv Independent: Mortality rate of seriously wounded Russian soldiers more than 50 percent. This is further confirmation that Russia is operating on a 2:1 to 1:1 casualty to killed ratio. The usual ratio through much of history is 3:1. In Iraq & Afghanistan, the US had about a 9:1 ratio.”
I've very much wanted hard confirmation of these various Russian casualty stats from the beginning. If true, if even remotely true, the significance is huge. A nation doesn't suffer these kinds of losses without it being historically transformative.
Without these stats in mind, Russia's internal situation is not hugely surprising: Putin and his cronies have been consolidating power for years, as well as conditioning the populace, so the fact that things have been (relatively) politically and economically stable makes sense.
But with those stats in mind, this is hard to believe. I can only explain it by noting how remote the leadership has previously kept this war from ethnic Russian heartland, and how much corruption there is in the provinces coupled with Moscow-aligned interests.
Nevertheless, especially as mobilization accelerates (men in Moscow are now being rounded-up and pressed into service), it's difficult to imagine how, if these stats are true, this isn't an enormous ticking bomb in the heart of Russian politics and society.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:41 AM on October 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
I've very much wanted hard confirmation of these various Russian casualty stats from the beginning. If true, if even remotely true, the significance is huge. A nation doesn't suffer these kinds of losses without it being historically transformative.
Without these stats in mind, Russia's internal situation is not hugely surprising: Putin and his cronies have been consolidating power for years, as well as conditioning the populace, so the fact that things have been (relatively) politically and economically stable makes sense.
But with those stats in mind, this is hard to believe. I can only explain it by noting how remote the leadership has previously kept this war from ethnic Russian heartland, and how much corruption there is in the provinces coupled with Moscow-aligned interests.
Nevertheless, especially as mobilization accelerates (men in Moscow are now being rounded-up and pressed into service), it's difficult to imagine how, if these stats are true, this isn't an enormous ticking bomb in the heart of Russian politics and society.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:41 AM on October 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
I've very much wanted hard confirmation of these various Russian casualty stats from the beginning
Not even an amateur here, but I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle and even that is terrible for Russia.
posted by Twain Device at 10:45 AM on October 15, 2022
Not even an amateur here, but I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle and even that is terrible for Russia.
posted by Twain Device at 10:45 AM on October 15, 2022
I am assuming these are Russian soldiers firing at Russian soldiers?
Yikes
Because that would be bad for Putin.
posted by Windopaene at 12:38 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yikes
Because that would be bad for Putin.
posted by Windopaene at 12:38 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
There is apparently a roundup of Russian milbloggers
Putin the strategic genius is getting his WWII speedrun mixed up. You do Long Knives before you do vengeance weapons, dummy.
"Russian telegram channels confirm that Igor Girkin Strelkov went to the front as member of a volunteer unit."
"volunteer"
You love to see it. Hey keyboard speznatz, go be trench filling. Flaunt your war boner for realsies.
posted by Sauce Trough at 12:50 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Putin the strategic genius is getting his WWII speedrun mixed up. You do Long Knives before you do vengeance weapons, dummy.
"Russian telegram channels confirm that Igor Girkin Strelkov went to the front as member of a volunteer unit."
"volunteer"
You love to see it. Hey keyboard speznatz, go be trench filling. Flaunt your war boner for realsies.
posted by Sauce Trough at 12:50 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Alexander Kamyshin is indeed a great follow, thanks TAVCS.
Here's his reaction to a video showing up-close fire damage to the Kerch bridge rail section:
Analyzed this case. Few days to fix in easy mode.
I am bad at reading nuance on twitter, but I think he might mean the opposite. What a weird time to live in, watching the head of a national railway have his Nelson Muntz moment.
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:28 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's his reaction to a video showing up-close fire damage to the Kerch bridge rail section:
Analyzed this case. Few days to fix in easy mode.
I am bad at reading nuance on twitter, but I think he might mean the opposite. What a weird time to live in, watching the head of a national railway have his Nelson Muntz moment.
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:28 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
They should make it $300K, maybe the unit he's with will manage to 'lose' him.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:05 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:05 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
ngl, I kinda want to read the rants he sends from the frozen trenches this winter
posted by ryanrs at 2:26 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 2:26 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sauce Trough: I am bad at reading nuance on twitter, but I think he might mean the opposite.
If the Russians consider the bridge structure to be sufficiently resistant against a fire like this and limit themselves to replacing the damaged rails and a bunch of sleepers it's not that different from repairing a length of track after a couple of grenade hits. Even a bit easier most likely, grenades tend to to kinda leave holes in the bed and scatter the ballast which then has to be backfilled and smoothed before you can lay the sleepers and rails down again. That hasn't happened here, although I'm quite curious about the void you can see underneath the sleepers right at the end of the video.
A deeper inspection into what the state down in the expansion joints is will definitely make it take longer, which they'll very likely try to avoid. Plus, they could even find things they would really have to fix or replace.
There's also the walkway along the side of the span, and the signalling cables routed along it to fix up. Without signalling they can still use the tracks, but only at reduced speed and with bigger intervals between trains. And while they may be tempted to cut some corners there because of the urgency of supplying Crimea and the troops in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, they know they can't risk a self-inflicted incident.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:43 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
If the Russians consider the bridge structure to be sufficiently resistant against a fire like this and limit themselves to replacing the damaged rails and a bunch of sleepers it's not that different from repairing a length of track after a couple of grenade hits. Even a bit easier most likely, grenades tend to to kinda leave holes in the bed and scatter the ballast which then has to be backfilled and smoothed before you can lay the sleepers and rails down again. That hasn't happened here, although I'm quite curious about the void you can see underneath the sleepers right at the end of the video.
A deeper inspection into what the state down in the expansion joints is will definitely make it take longer, which they'll very likely try to avoid. Plus, they could even find things they would really have to fix or replace.
There's also the walkway along the side of the span, and the signalling cables routed along it to fix up. Without signalling they can still use the tracks, but only at reduced speed and with bigger intervals between trains. And while they may be tempted to cut some corners there because of the urgency of supplying Crimea and the troops in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, they know they can't risk a self-inflicted incident.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:43 PM on October 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
They should make it $300K, maybe the unit he's with will manage to 'lose' him.
In a time when Ukraine can buy a whole BMP-2 and its crew from Russia for just $50K, $300K for Girkin seems like overpaying.
(seriously, tho, I have some doubts that famous BMP-2 surrender video went down on the square. Ukranians are too good at online propaganda and have plenty of Russian vehicles to use in videos)
posted by Sauce Trough at 2:47 PM on October 15, 2022
In a time when Ukraine can buy a whole BMP-2 and its crew from Russia for just $50K, $300K for Girkin seems like overpaying.
(seriously, tho, I have some doubts that famous BMP-2 surrender video went down on the square. Ukranians are too good at online propaganda and have plenty of Russian vehicles to use in videos)
posted by Sauce Trough at 2:47 PM on October 15, 2022
Looks like Uncle Sam sat down with Elon and had a little talk.
@elonmusk:
@elonmusk:
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for freeposted by JoeZydeco at 3:22 PM on October 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
What's the bet that this is because the FBI told him he's now the proud owner of a complimentary 90 day FISA warrant after the rumoured phone call with Putin debacle?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:30 PM on October 15, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:30 PM on October 15, 2022 [19 favorites]
And while they may be tempted to cut some corners there because of the urgency of supplying Crimea and the troops in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, they know they can't risk a self-inflicted incident.
Do they know that? Seems like the kind of information that isn't trickling up to the higher echelons, proving Robert Anton Wilson's adage that communication is only possible among equals.
posted by ocschwar at 3:45 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Do they know that? Seems like the kind of information that isn't trickling up to the higher echelons, proving Robert Anton Wilson's adage that communication is only possible among equals.
posted by ocschwar at 3:45 PM on October 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
In a time when Ukraine can buy a whole BMP-2 and its crew from Russia for just $50K, $300K for Girkin seems like overpaying.
Perhaps, I just went with 10x; but the information war has been of tremendous importance, and I'd guess a $300K bounty to capture him could be crowdfunded in about 90 minutes. 30, if they do a postage stamp with it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:31 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Perhaps, I just went with 10x; but the information war has been of tremendous importance, and I'd guess a $300K bounty to capture him could be crowdfunded in about 90 minutes. 30, if they do a postage stamp with it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:31 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Starr Forum at MIT w/Michael Kofman (of 'War on the Rocks') and others: An Update on Russia's War in Ukraine
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:46 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:46 PM on October 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Looks like Uncle Sam sat down with Elon and had a little talk.
@elonmusk:
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
Anyone have a handy chart of just how much Musk has benefited from assistance from the government over they years? In addition to, of course, details like a functioning legal system, public safety, road infrastructure, education to provide him with employees etc.
posted by Harald74 at 10:20 PM on October 15, 2022 [16 favorites]
@elonmusk:
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
Anyone have a handy chart of just how much Musk has benefited from assistance from the government over they years? In addition to, of course, details like a functioning legal system, public safety, road infrastructure, education to provide him with employees etc.
posted by Harald74 at 10:20 PM on October 15, 2022 [16 favorites]
Hmm, just did some reading on Strelkov and yeah he probably warrants a bigger bounty than a BMP-2 ... dude has been a direct player in the war since it began in 2014. He was defense minister of the DNR and is most famous for his role in the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 atrocity. The Netherlands tried him in absentia at the Hague; the judgment of the court is imminent.
Fuck that guy.
posted by Sauce Trough at 10:22 PM on October 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
Fuck that guy.
posted by Sauce Trough at 10:22 PM on October 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
Found a list of Musk's government subsidies.
posted by Harald74 at 11:02 PM on October 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:02 PM on October 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
All I want for Christmas is Girkin in a court, preferably in the Netherlands.
posted by Harald74 at 11:04 PM on October 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:04 PM on October 15, 2022 [5 favorites]
Do they know that?
The local/regional department does. Whether anyone at a high enough central level does as well, I wouldn't bet on it. But for the moment all they have is a single track, so that's limiting in any case.
And there are a couple of scenarios anyway, after the direct damage is repaired and both tracks usable again:
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy but the local train controllers are the ones ultimately setting the signals and switches, and are able to enforce the reduced schedule that way. Military as well as the civilian population of Crimea are unhappy too. Local department says "tough shit, we don't want the bridge to break AND NEITHER DO YOU".
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy , kicks out the local department, including the train controllers, and brings in a more pliant bunch from Omsk or Yakutsk. Service is cranked up.
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy , but ultimately backs the local department after enough information on the state of the bridge gets through to them. Military is unhappy, and someone with a chest full of ribbons and an urgent desire to at least not lose the war tells the central railway department that guns have a right end and a wrong end, and that the military is the one holding the right end. Central goes along with this, kicks out the local department, including the train controllers, and brings in a more pliant bunch from Omsk or Yakutsk. Service is cranked up.
Whether the affected spans can actually still cope with the full load is something I expect only a few people can answer, and probably not even right at this moment yet.
Here is an example of what happens when the military overrides the objections of a couple of local technicians and their management.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:13 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
The local/regional department does. Whether anyone at a high enough central level does as well, I wouldn't bet on it. But for the moment all they have is a single track, so that's limiting in any case.
And there are a couple of scenarios anyway, after the direct damage is repaired and both tracks usable again:
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy but the local train controllers are the ones ultimately setting the signals and switches, and are able to enforce the reduced schedule that way. Military as well as the civilian population of Crimea are unhappy too. Local department says "tough shit, we don't want the bridge to break AND NEITHER DO YOU".
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy , kicks out the local department, including the train controllers, and brings in a more pliant bunch from Omsk or Yakutsk. Service is cranked up.
- Local department returns bridge to service at a reduced schedule. Central is unhappy , but ultimately backs the local department after enough information on the state of the bridge gets through to them. Military is unhappy, and someone with a chest full of ribbons and an urgent desire to at least not lose the war tells the central railway department that guns have a right end and a wrong end, and that the military is the one holding the right end. Central goes along with this, kicks out the local department, including the train controllers, and brings in a more pliant bunch from Omsk or Yakutsk. Service is cranked up.
Whether the affected spans can actually still cope with the full load is something I expect only a few people can answer, and probably not even right at this moment yet.
Here is an example of what happens when the military overrides the objections of a couple of local technicians and their management.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:13 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'd guess a $300K bounty to capture him could be crowdfunded in about 90 minutes.
It's up to $100k now.
@maria_drutska: "Girkin, $100k USD Bounty, caught alive.
I believe there's another $40k that's been pledged by various others.
War Criminals will be brought to justice."
@elonmusk:
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
I'm guessing that Musk is basing the amount they are allegedly losing on the sticker price for the terminals and service. What are the chances that with all those funded by governments and individuals overall they're making a decent profit, even aside from the great marketing effect?
posted by Buntix at 4:26 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's up to $100k now.
@maria_drutska: "Girkin, $100k USD Bounty, caught alive.
I believe there's another $40k that's been pledged by various others.
War Criminals will be brought to justice."
@elonmusk:
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
I'm guessing that Musk is basing the amount they are allegedly losing on the sticker price for the terminals and service. What are the chances that with all those funded by governments and individuals overall they're making a decent profit, even aside from the great marketing effect?
posted by Buntix at 4:26 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
What are the chances that with all those funded by governments and individuals overall they're making a decent profit, even aside from the great marketing effect?
Without question. The phrasing of the tweet is 'careful' to note "other companies are getting billions" (between the lines: versus measley tens or hundreds of millions for StarLink) and that StarLink is losing money (subtext: as a company, not specifically in or because of Ukraine).
"Keep funding Ukraine govt for free" is just good old unfiltered oligarch talk and it's simply a lie. Ukraine (and the Polish / US governments) is paying for these terminals and connectivity full stop. They were clearly told to screw off when they tried to scam those governments as if they were just normal cable internet customers. 'Fine! They can use the terminals they're paying for!' is something Musk can't bring himself to tweet.
posted by UN at 5:33 AM on October 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
Without question. The phrasing of the tweet is 'careful' to note "other companies are getting billions" (between the lines: versus measley tens or hundreds of millions for StarLink) and that StarLink is losing money (subtext: as a company, not specifically in or because of Ukraine).
"Keep funding Ukraine govt for free" is just good old unfiltered oligarch talk and it's simply a lie. Ukraine (and the Polish / US governments) is paying for these terminals and connectivity full stop. They were clearly told to screw off when they tried to scam those governments as if they were just normal cable internet customers. 'Fine! They can use the terminals they're paying for!' is something Musk can't bring himself to tweet.
posted by UN at 5:33 AM on October 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
That is exactly the Great Patriotic War model, except you had the NKVD as the last line shooting at everyone ahead of them.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:49 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:49 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Everybody knows Chief Commander of the UAF 4-star Gen Valeriy Zaluzhniy.
As immortalized on the Kyiv Tapestry.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:29 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
As immortalized on the Kyiv Tapestry.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:29 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's no food. Those who can't buy any will eat the ripened grain from the fields.
I was on Amazon the other day looking for emergency food for the back of my cabinet when I came across Russian army rations. I am going to guess that, broadly speaking, these things are not unrelated.
posted by Countess Elena at 6:38 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
I was on Amazon the other day looking for emergency food for the back of my cabinet when I came across Russian army rations. I am going to guess that, broadly speaking, these things are not unrelated.
posted by Countess Elena at 6:38 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Those Amazon rations look pretty terrible.
MREMountain has better Russian combat rations, presumably stolen from a fancier, Moscow-area military warehouse, lol.
posted by ryanrs at 8:43 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
MREMountain has better Russian combat rations, presumably stolen from a fancier, Moscow-area military warehouse, lol.
posted by ryanrs at 8:43 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's no food. Those who can't buy any will eat the ripened grain from the fields.
I'm not sure if this is a joke, or if Russia is really going back to the medieval/early-modern forage* system. There are two good reasons not to do this, one of which Russia might care about. The reason they don't care about is that by pretty much any modern standard, military forage is a war crime. The reason they should care about is that forage presents a major operational disadvantage for a modern military. Sweeping the countryside is logistically really difficult: it spreads your forces thin, puts them into skirmishing contact with local resistance pretty much constantly — basically it adds friction to a system whose logistics are, in Russia's case, already barely working. Add to that the fact that modern farming itself has involved transportation and warehousing processes, to the extent that raiding a farmstead may or may not actually provide much on-site food. There's a reason armies stopped using forage as soon as it became logistically possible for them to provide their own supply (which, for coastal campaigns, was really early! There are ancient-world records of armies with good naval support shipping food in), and it wasn't out of a tender-hearted concern for the well-being of civilians.
*Forage is a pretty bloodless term, suggesting bivouacking in forests and living off the land by gathering nuts and berries, but in reference to military supply, the land they're living off of tends to be agricultural, and their way of gathering its bounty is by threatening to kill those who work it. Foraging of food usually came with a side gig of non-food thievery and rape, especially (but not exclusively) in enemy territory.
posted by jackbishop at 9:06 AM on October 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'm not sure if this is a joke, or if Russia is really going back to the medieval/early-modern forage* system. There are two good reasons not to do this, one of which Russia might care about. The reason they don't care about is that by pretty much any modern standard, military forage is a war crime. The reason they should care about is that forage presents a major operational disadvantage for a modern military. Sweeping the countryside is logistically really difficult: it spreads your forces thin, puts them into skirmishing contact with local resistance pretty much constantly — basically it adds friction to a system whose logistics are, in Russia's case, already barely working. Add to that the fact that modern farming itself has involved transportation and warehousing processes, to the extent that raiding a farmstead may or may not actually provide much on-site food. There's a reason armies stopped using forage as soon as it became logistically possible for them to provide their own supply (which, for coastal campaigns, was really early! There are ancient-world records of armies with good naval support shipping food in), and it wasn't out of a tender-hearted concern for the well-being of civilians.
*Forage is a pretty bloodless term, suggesting bivouacking in forests and living off the land by gathering nuts and berries, but in reference to military supply, the land they're living off of tends to be agricultural, and their way of gathering its bounty is by threatening to kill those who work it. Foraging of food usually came with a side gig of non-food thievery and rape, especially (but not exclusively) in enemy territory.
posted by jackbishop at 9:06 AM on October 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
Is it a new Perun video day?
It's a new Perun video day!
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:16 AM on October 16, 2022
It's a new Perun video day!
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:16 AM on October 16, 2022
Ye, if there are front line troops intended to forage, they are definitely not intended to survive. It's perfectly possible, presented with an inability to supply their conscripts, they are shipping them to the very front line and making no effort to provision them. If it works optimally hunger will drive them forward and they will make some gains before dying of starvation/exposure and from Ukrainian defense/Kadyrovite "friendly" fire. If it works acceptably they will provide a two week break for the soldiers that were previously holding the front lines before they succumb. And if it doesn't work at all they will rapidly desert, surrender or be exterminated (which will cause much more domestic unrest), or else they will manage to escape back through their own lines.
The best case scenario for the Ukrainians is debatable. Accepting surrender in large numbers will be a major logistic nightmare - if the Russians can't feed them it means the Ukrainians will be hard pressed to do it also. There is a reason why so many POW's in the Second World War were deliberately starved to death, or executed in the last months. If you only have enough rations to feed 40,000 men of your own and you have 60,000 in the field 20,000 POW's will not feel like the priority.
Slaughtering the lot is not going to be a good option for the Ukrainians because there will be resistance and everyone involved is going to take a lot of damage. It won't make eventual peace any easier to negotiate. I suspect their priority then will be to try to blow holes in the defensive perimeter behind the front lines so that there are escape routes for the Russians conscripts. If the front lines are held by lightly armed conscripts who don't know how to fight, it would be smart to focus your artillery on two lines behind them. If you can get those lines to break using longer range weapons, the Russian conscripts and convicts are likely to break also and try to escape in the same direction. If the big kids are neutralized, the little kids are not going to stand their ground. Moreover if those reluctant soldiers ever make it home, they will have accounts of how their own side brutalized and killed more of them than the Ukrainians did... That won't hurt when it comes to reestablishing friendly trade relations with Russia.
Foraging is just not going to provide appreciable amounts of food. It was one thing back in the day when every little farm was a self sufficient unit raising pork, potatoes and cash crops. Every mile you fanned out foraging offered an additional chance to get a feast for your squadron. It's still another thing if all the farms around here grow nothing but sunflowers or wheat. If they grow nothing but wheat, the Russian conscripts could try to live on boiled wheat, but that won't provide the calories for heavy labour. To forage you have to get your troops to scour the countryside as far away as possible and spread very thinly. One of the common results of foraging back in the day is that men ended up in brand new detachments all the time. You might be a member of the 213 Rifle Brigade but end up attaching yourself to the 716 Engineers because you can't find your own unit again. Foraging leads to significant break downs of command. ... which raises an enormous prospect of desertion and infiltration if those troops were reluctant in the first place. The Russian commanders are going to be reluctant to let them forage because they won't be able to stay in control of troops that are foraging.
I am thinking that those who support Ukraine are maybe going to need to start also specifically proving help to support Russian POW's. If the Ukrainians end up with 20,000 POW's all suffering from malnutrition and exposure they will perhaps need some help with the logistics of feeding and housing them. And they might actually want to have that kind of numbers of POW's because there are an awful lot of forcibly relocated civilians from occupied Ukraine that they would like to get back. It might be the only hope they have to get their kids back home from the Russian summer camps they were sent to.
posted by Jane the Brown at 11:00 AM on October 16, 2022 [13 favorites]
The best case scenario for the Ukrainians is debatable. Accepting surrender in large numbers will be a major logistic nightmare - if the Russians can't feed them it means the Ukrainians will be hard pressed to do it also. There is a reason why so many POW's in the Second World War were deliberately starved to death, or executed in the last months. If you only have enough rations to feed 40,000 men of your own and you have 60,000 in the field 20,000 POW's will not feel like the priority.
Slaughtering the lot is not going to be a good option for the Ukrainians because there will be resistance and everyone involved is going to take a lot of damage. It won't make eventual peace any easier to negotiate. I suspect their priority then will be to try to blow holes in the defensive perimeter behind the front lines so that there are escape routes for the Russians conscripts. If the front lines are held by lightly armed conscripts who don't know how to fight, it would be smart to focus your artillery on two lines behind them. If you can get those lines to break using longer range weapons, the Russian conscripts and convicts are likely to break also and try to escape in the same direction. If the big kids are neutralized, the little kids are not going to stand their ground. Moreover if those reluctant soldiers ever make it home, they will have accounts of how their own side brutalized and killed more of them than the Ukrainians did... That won't hurt when it comes to reestablishing friendly trade relations with Russia.
Foraging is just not going to provide appreciable amounts of food. It was one thing back in the day when every little farm was a self sufficient unit raising pork, potatoes and cash crops. Every mile you fanned out foraging offered an additional chance to get a feast for your squadron. It's still another thing if all the farms around here grow nothing but sunflowers or wheat. If they grow nothing but wheat, the Russian conscripts could try to live on boiled wheat, but that won't provide the calories for heavy labour. To forage you have to get your troops to scour the countryside as far away as possible and spread very thinly. One of the common results of foraging back in the day is that men ended up in brand new detachments all the time. You might be a member of the 213 Rifle Brigade but end up attaching yourself to the 716 Engineers because you can't find your own unit again. Foraging leads to significant break downs of command. ... which raises an enormous prospect of desertion and infiltration if those troops were reluctant in the first place. The Russian commanders are going to be reluctant to let them forage because they won't be able to stay in control of troops that are foraging.
I am thinking that those who support Ukraine are maybe going to need to start also specifically proving help to support Russian POW's. If the Ukrainians end up with 20,000 POW's all suffering from malnutrition and exposure they will perhaps need some help with the logistics of feeding and housing them. And they might actually want to have that kind of numbers of POW's because there are an awful lot of forcibly relocated civilians from occupied Ukraine that they would like to get back. It might be the only hope they have to get their kids back home from the Russian summer camps they were sent to.
posted by Jane the Brown at 11:00 AM on October 16, 2022 [13 favorites]
ChrisO reports an eyewitness account of the shootings in Belgorod.
That's what happens when your national brand is aggressive anti-wokeness.
posted by acb at 11:04 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
That's what happens when your national brand is aggressive anti-wokeness.
posted by acb at 11:04 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
ACOUP has a good entry on ancient warfare foraging as part of the logistics series. Jackbishops description is accurate. But I'm not sure how practical "eating ripened grain from the fields" is for a modern army.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:12 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
The first factor that is going to shape foraging operations is grain processing. As noted last time, staple grains (especially wheat, barley and later rye) make up the vast bulk of the calories an army (and it attendant non-combatants) are eating on the march. But, as we’ve discussed in more detail already, grains don’t grow ‘ready to eat’ and require various stages of processing to render them edible. An army’s foraging strategy is going to be heavily impacted by just how much of that processing they are prepared to do internally.I'm sure at the right time of year, some modern soldiers will grab handfuls of grain and boil it. But from this description it sounds like it's pretty hard to do on a sufficient scale to significantly help feed an army. An army that can't organize a modern supply chain probably can't organize a Roman style grain processing system either.
This is one area where the Roman army does appear to have been quite unusual: Roman armies could and regularly did conduct the entire grain processing chain internally. This was relatively rare and required both a lot of coordination and a lot of materiel in the form of tools for each stage of processing. As a brief refresher, grains once ripe first have to be reaped (cut down from the stalks), then threshed (the stalks are beaten to shake out the seeds) and winnowed (the removal of non-edible portions), then potentially hulled (removing the inedible hull of the seed), then milled (ground into a powder, called flour, usually by the grinding actions of large stones), then at last baked into bread or a biscuit or what have you.
It is possible to roast unmilled grain seeds or to boil either those seeds or flour in water to make porridge in order to make them edible, but turning grain into bread (or biscuits or crackers) has significant nutritional advantages (it breaks down some of the plant compounds that human stomachs struggle to digest) and also renders the food a lot tastier, which is good for morale. Consequently, while armies will roast grains or just make lots of porridge in extremis, they want to be securing a consistent supply of bread.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:12 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
That's what happens when your national brand is aggressive anti-wokeness.
Right? I may be theistically indifferent but even I'm not stupid enough to insult Allah in front of a devout Muslim, little alone one that I'm about to give an automatic weapon and live ammo.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:11 PM on October 16, 2022
Right? I may be theistically indifferent but even I'm not stupid enough to insult Allah in front of a devout Muslim, little alone one that I'm about to give an automatic weapon and live ammo.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:11 PM on October 16, 2022
Speaking of the Civil War I was just thinking about sutlers the other day and how they'd follow armies around and provide those extra goods and services. When did that die out? (or has it?)
posted by drewbage1847 at 1:03 PM on October 16, 2022
posted by drewbage1847 at 1:03 PM on October 16, 2022
Israel are finally throwing their hat in on the Ukrainian side, with military aid incoming.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:36 PM on October 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:36 PM on October 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
Buntix: @maria_drutska: "Girkin, $100k USD Bounty, caught alive.
Well, those grenade-dropping drones should probably keep clear of the area Girkin is thought to be in, and refrain from chucking one into a random foxhole or trench until the controller can show some marker (a currency sign, obviously) over the guy to avoid.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:50 PM on October 16, 2022
Well, those grenade-dropping drones should probably keep clear of the area Girkin is thought to be in, and refrain from chucking one into a random foxhole or trench until the controller can show some marker (a currency sign, obviously) over the guy to avoid.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:50 PM on October 16, 2022
Well it sounds like this prisoner/conscript/professional tier system of lines isn't about fighting at all. It's about force-injecting a humanitarian and crime crisis on the enemy community in front of the army (or behind a retreating one). They don't care what the first line is doing, as long as it's a nuisance for the enemy, and as long as they don't come back.
posted by ctmf at 2:16 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 2:16 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
I am thinking that those who support Ukraine are maybe going to need to start also specifically proving help to support Russian POW's.
Just bill the RF. If RF doesn't / can't deliver the food, the PR writes itself. Besides, the existence of 20k POWs would cause huge unrest in RF. That Ukraine has to feed them implies that RF isn't willing / able to pay the price for their return (like POW exchanges, gas, returning looted material). The existence of 20k POWs would also completely nullify RF's ability to use terror bombing.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 4:02 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Just bill the RF. If RF doesn't / can't deliver the food, the PR writes itself. Besides, the existence of 20k POWs would cause huge unrest in RF. That Ukraine has to feed them implies that RF isn't willing / able to pay the price for their return (like POW exchanges, gas, returning looted material). The existence of 20k POWs would also completely nullify RF's ability to use terror bombing.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 4:02 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
These are actual human beings we're talking about who will need food and lodging and basic needs met for survival under war conventions. Who gets billed for what doesn't matter when there are daily requirements to be met.
posted by hippybear at 4:24 PM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:24 PM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Grrr - crazy anti-vaxxer bullshit - one of New Zealand's 'finest' anti-vaxxer wanna-be influencer Chantel Baker is touring Ukraine taking 'fashion photos'. She's been told to stop
New Zealanders are divided on whether she's hopelessly naive, or a Russian dupe (I'm leaning towards "dupe"). Back home she's a right wing christian-conservative anti-vaxxer who rose to prominence with breathy reporting from the an ti-vaxxer camp outside parliament at the beginning of the year
posted by mbo at 4:24 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
New Zealanders are divided on whether she's hopelessly naive, or a Russian dupe (I'm leaning towards "dupe"). Back home she's a right wing christian-conservative anti-vaxxer who rose to prominence with breathy reporting from the an ti-vaxxer camp outside parliament at the beginning of the year
posted by mbo at 4:24 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
The international community should use seized Russian assets to pay to upkeep the POWs..
posted by fimbulvetr at 4:41 PM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by fimbulvetr at 4:41 PM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
The existence of 20k POWs would also completely nullify RF's ability to use terror bombing.
I doubt it would give them a second’s pause.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:48 PM on October 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
I doubt it would give them a second’s pause.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:48 PM on October 16, 2022 [9 favorites]
Unfortunately the Israeli government is a
huge coalition of everyone stop Netanyahu from being PM and the views of one relatively minor minister isn’t going to have an immediate impact .
posted by interogative mood at 5:06 PM on October 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
huge coalition of everyone stop Netanyahu from being PM and the views of one relatively minor minister isn’t going to have an immediate impact .
posted by interogative mood at 5:06 PM on October 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
My reasoning is that if Russians do little to recover bodies in combat, then they do little to recover wounded. A
At this point there are about a million videos of Russian soldiers running like rabbits and leaving wounded comrades flailing helplessly in the dirt. It's a completely different ethos than what western militaries have tried to instill and it seems like it would be hell on morale.
I'm not sure if this is a joke, or if Russia is really going back to the medieval/early-modern forage* system.
I just finished reading (i.e., listening to) Max Hastings' history of WWII, and a point he makes in passing is that Russia's forces "lived off the land" during their advance towards Berlin. There were disadvantages, but it also had the advantage of minimizing their supply chain needs, allowing them to keep moving when other Allied armies needed to keep pausing to let supplies catch up. I can see how that could possibly work in a fast advance, but it seems spectacularly inappropriate when your troops are stuck in place holding defensive lines.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:08 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
At this point there are about a million videos of Russian soldiers running like rabbits and leaving wounded comrades flailing helplessly in the dirt. It's a completely different ethos than what western militaries have tried to instill and it seems like it would be hell on morale.
I'm not sure if this is a joke, or if Russia is really going back to the medieval/early-modern forage* system.
I just finished reading (i.e., listening to) Max Hastings' history of WWII, and a point he makes in passing is that Russia's forces "lived off the land" during their advance towards Berlin. There were disadvantages, but it also had the advantage of minimizing their supply chain needs, allowing them to keep moving when other Allied armies needed to keep pausing to let supplies catch up. I can see how that could possibly work in a fast advance, but it seems spectacularly inappropriate when your troops are stuck in place holding defensive lines.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:08 PM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
The report notes that Russian forces under his command attacked “Syrian homes, schools, medical facilities and markets, places where people live, work and study”. (re the new commander Sergey Surovikin)
Of course this is terrible, but from a cold strategic standpoint I say good. More missles and munitions wasted on non-military targets. More heartless disregard fror the Russian soldiers under his command. More resolve from the Ukrainians and the world. More evidence of war crimes.
This guy is not the one to win the war, he sounds like just the right guy to fuck it up even faster. Good at being a bully and a war criminal, but Ukrainians will not be bullied.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:45 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Of course this is terrible, but from a cold strategic standpoint I say good. More missles and munitions wasted on non-military targets. More heartless disregard fror the Russian soldiers under his command. More resolve from the Ukrainians and the world. More evidence of war crimes.
This guy is not the one to win the war, he sounds like just the right guy to fuck it up even faster. Good at being a bully and a war criminal, but Ukrainians will not be bullied.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:45 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
The ISW had quite a bit on Surovikin and didn't think he was much different to his predecessors.
Surovikin has been serving in Ukraine (as the Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and then reportedly of the southern grouping of Russian forces) since the beginning of the war, as have many senior Russian commanders similarly associated with Russian operations in Syria. Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who was appointed in April to the role that Surovikin now holds, similarly commanded Russian forces in Syria between 2015-2016 and became known for deliberately and brutally targeting civilians.Colonel General Aleksandr Chayko, the former commander of the Eastern Military District who took an active part in the first stages of the war in Ukraine, also served as Chief of Staff of Russian forces in Syria from 2015 and into 2016. As ISW noted in April, all Russian military district, aerospace, and airborne commanders served at least one tour in Syria as either chief of staff or commander of Russian forces, and Russian forces deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure including hospitals and breadlines throughout the period of Russia’s active engagement in that war. Disregard for international law and an enthusiasm for brutalizing civilian populations was standard operating procedure for Russian forces in Syria before, during, and after Surovikin’s tenure. It has become part of the Russian way of war...posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:28 AM on October 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
drewbage1847: (sutlers) When did that die out? (or has it?)
Looking at the various translations for the 'Sutler' lemma on Wikipedia, most entries note that roughly at the end of the 19th century their role was either taken over by actual army staff, or they were incorporated into the army in some form.
The Russian entry does not mention any such change at all.
European entries tend to note that a good number of them were women, and often married to a lower ranking officer in the army group they were associated to..
posted by Stoneshop at 1:32 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Looking at the various translations for the 'Sutler' lemma on Wikipedia, most entries note that roughly at the end of the 19th century their role was either taken over by actual army staff, or they were incorporated into the army in some form.
The Russian entry does not mention any such change at all.
European entries tend to note that a good number of them were women, and often married to a lower ranking officer in the army group they were associated to..
posted by Stoneshop at 1:32 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
This guy is not the one to win the war, he sounds like just the right guy to fuck it up even faster.
Someone has to shuffle the deck chairs on theMoskva Kerch Strait Bridge.
posted by UN at 1:38 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Someone has to shuffle the deck chairs on the
posted by UN at 1:38 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
[is there a phrase to describe shuffling the people who then shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship? Meta-shuffle? A Matryoshka shuffle?]
posted by UN at 1:46 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 1:46 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
shuffling the people who then shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship?
... shuffling the people who then order underlings to order conscripts to shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:44 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
... shuffling the people who then order underlings to order conscripts to shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:44 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
"They're doing the Matryoshka shuffle." as a description of shuffling down the line of command? That's very satisfactory.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:58 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 2:58 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
The recently supplied Iranian drones are being used to strike civilian targets in Kyiv.
the views of one relatively minor minister isn’t going to have an immediate impact
If it leads it the delivery of air defense systems, it will.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:53 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
the views of one relatively minor minister isn’t going to have an immediate impact
If it leads it the delivery of air defense systems, it will.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:53 AM on October 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
shuffling the people who then shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship?
... shuffling the people who then order underlings to order conscripts to shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship.
The Curly Shuffle
posted by Reverend John at 7:04 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
... shuffling the people who then order underlings to order conscripts to shuffle the deck chairs on a sinking ship.
The Curly Shuffle
posted by Reverend John at 7:04 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
An interview with different Baltic intelligence officers about the Russian threat: „Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty
posted by Harald74 at 7:05 AM on October 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:05 AM on October 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
That is ominous, but then, they used to say the same things about the Germans: a nation of slavish rule-followers who are incapable of democratic civil society but need military-style organisation. None of which, obviously, holds true these days. Perhaps some day the same will apply to Russia (whatever size it is by then)?
posted by acb at 7:38 AM on October 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:38 AM on October 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Germans made a massive effort to change: faced their past, took responsibility for their nation's crimes, paid reparations, educated their children, built a legal and political framework to prevent a recurrence. Yes, I know, nothing black and white, but those are the broad strokes. It can be done, but it seems to me the German transformation was quite exceptional.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:07 AM on October 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 9:07 AM on October 17, 2022 [8 favorites]
If you go back further, the Danes had quite a ferocious reputation; now they're all about comfy jumpers, candles and LEGO.
posted by acb at 9:17 AM on October 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 9:17 AM on October 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
From the Baltic link above, this reinforces my point exactly:
I’m not told his full name, even after asking. All I know is his first name, that he is a historian, and that he works with KAPO’s spies and detectives. The historian, let’s call him Peeter, is tasked with helping to unravel crimes committed during the Soviet occupation of the 1940s and later. As Russia stands at the very center of the Soviet Union’s horrible deeds, they greatly help to understand the country’s actions today. No one would use Angela Merkel or Olaf Scholtz to improve their analyses of Nazi history, but nothing in Russia has changed.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:22 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
I’m not told his full name, even after asking. All I know is his first name, that he is a historian, and that he works with KAPO’s spies and detectives. The historian, let’s call him Peeter, is tasked with helping to unravel crimes committed during the Soviet occupation of the 1940s and later. As Russia stands at the very center of the Soviet Union’s horrible deeds, they greatly help to understand the country’s actions today. No one would use Angela Merkel or Olaf Scholtz to improve their analyses of Nazi history, but nothing in Russia has changed.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:22 AM on October 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Germans made a massive effort to change: faced their past, took responsibility for their nation's crimes, paid reparations, educated their children, built a legal and political framework to prevent a recurrence.
Half of Germany did. The other half swept the atrocities under the rug by blaming it all on fascism. Now, the former East Germany is home to thousands of neo-Nazis who are increasingly building political power by blaming all of their problems on globalization, Jews, Western decadence, et cetera ad nauseum.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 11:14 AM on October 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
Half of Germany did. The other half swept the atrocities under the rug by blaming it all on fascism. Now, the former East Germany is home to thousands of neo-Nazis who are increasingly building political power by blaming all of their problems on globalization, Jews, Western decadence, et cetera ad nauseum.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 11:14 AM on October 17, 2022 [12 favorites]
Half of Germany did.
Maybe a third, or even a quarter, only - but significantly, they made a promise to themselves to change and backed that promise up with laws and significant social effort. (And it seems like some cold-blooded altruism from afar but the depths of what all the Nazis fucked sideways is remarkable - their fuckery and it’s effects still reverberate today - so there’s strong impetus there) Also, no one really knows what the fuck is up with the Saxons. Like, it’s a real head-scratcher for the rest of the country.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:40 PM on October 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
Maybe a third, or even a quarter, only - but significantly, they made a promise to themselves to change and backed that promise up with laws and significant social effort. (And it seems like some cold-blooded altruism from afar but the depths of what all the Nazis fucked sideways is remarkable - their fuckery and it’s effects still reverberate today - so there’s strong impetus there) Also, no one really knows what the fuck is up with the Saxons. Like, it’s a real head-scratcher for the rest of the country.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:40 PM on October 17, 2022 [7 favorites]
Metafilter: All about comfy jumpers, candles and LEGO
posted by Kabanos at 4:36 PM on October 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 4:36 PM on October 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
And I think we can order two out of those three from Ukrainian crafters linked above and in previous threads—win/win.
posted by Quasirandom at 5:59 PM on October 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Quasirandom at 5:59 PM on October 17, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russians have confirmed that they're down one more SU-34, which crashed into a block of flats in Yeysk in Krasnodarski Kray last night. Latest official casualty count is 13 dead and 19 wounded, though the pilot managed to eject. Once again the local mayor seems determined not to let it be covered up, same as previous Belgorod explosions, which hopefully means people in Krasnodarski Kray are getting well fed up with the war.
(Monday known civilian Ukrainian casualties of Russian bombardment seem to be 7, so for once the Russians managed to kill more of their own, in a manner eerily similar to the buildings hit in Ukrainian cities.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:52 PM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
(Monday known civilian Ukrainian casualties of Russian bombardment seem to be 7, so for once the Russians managed to kill more of their own, in a manner eerily similar to the buildings hit in Ukrainian cities.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:52 PM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Is "my aircraft crashed into a civilian building but at least I managed to eject" a good look for a military pilot?
posted by Harald74 at 11:26 PM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:26 PM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
"Mechanical failure", service personnel get to spend a long short vacation in Siberia on the frontline in the Donbass.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:44 AM on October 18, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 12:44 AM on October 18, 2022
”Is 'my aircraft crashed into a civilian building but at least I managed to eject' a good look for a military pilot?”
I thought the same thing. I don't know how pilots are trained about this, but in US incidents there've been pilots who didn't eject or ejected late because they wanted to ensure the jet didn't hit a residential area, for example. I've had the impression that quickly ejecting without making an attempt to avoid civilians was in bad form, but I'm not sure I've ever heard such a criticism officially made.
I recall sone discussion here about the Russian air force readiness and training, but I don't remember what was said. Is it in as poor a state as the ground units?
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 2:52 AM on October 18, 2022
I thought the same thing. I don't know how pilots are trained about this, but in US incidents there've been pilots who didn't eject or ejected late because they wanted to ensure the jet didn't hit a residential area, for example. I've had the impression that quickly ejecting without making an attempt to avoid civilians was in bad form, but I'm not sure I've ever heard such a criticism officially made.
I recall sone discussion here about the Russian air force readiness and training, but I don't remember what was said. Is it in as poor a state as the ground units?
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 2:52 AM on October 18, 2022
And about the NordStream pipes, those were quite forceful blasts indeed.. There's about 50m of pipe missing at one point, with a huge gash in the sea bed.
Danes, Swedes and Germans are conducting separate but coordinated investigations; Sweden declined a joint investigation as they had already found some matters of national security.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:44 AM on October 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Danes, Swedes and Germans are conducting separate but coordinated investigations; Sweden declined a joint investigation as they had already found some matters of national security.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:44 AM on October 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
From the Guardian: Russian strikes have left more than 1,100 villages and towns in Ukraine without power after targeting energy facilities across the country, Kyiv has said.
Vladimir Putin’s troops have launched around 190 attacks using missiles, kamikaze drones, and artillery in 16 regions including the capital, Ukraine’s emergency services said. More than 70 people have been killed and 240 more injured in the assaults.
“For now, 1,162 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovogod, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions remain cut off from electricity,” spokesperson Oleksandr Khorunzhyi told a briefing.
In related news: A United Nations commission has found Russian forces were responsible for the “vast majority” of human rights violations in the beginning of its war in Ukraine.
Soldiers indiscriminately shelled areas they were trying to capture and attacked fleeing civilians in acts that could be considered war crimes, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine said.
We knew that (or thought we did); perhaps now it is official.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:13 AM on October 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Vladimir Putin’s troops have launched around 190 attacks using missiles, kamikaze drones, and artillery in 16 regions including the capital, Ukraine’s emergency services said. More than 70 people have been killed and 240 more injured in the assaults.
“For now, 1,162 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovogod, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions remain cut off from electricity,” spokesperson Oleksandr Khorunzhyi told a briefing.
In related news: A United Nations commission has found Russian forces were responsible for the “vast majority” of human rights violations in the beginning of its war in Ukraine.
Soldiers indiscriminately shelled areas they were trying to capture and attacked fleeing civilians in acts that could be considered war crimes, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine said.
We knew that (or thought we did); perhaps now it is official.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:13 AM on October 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Stoneshop: There's about 50m of pipe missing at one point,
The video was taken by the Swedish newspaper Expressen, after gaining permission from the authorities. It appears that section has been removed by Swedish investigators, as the edge of the pipe shows a fairly clean cut, not the jagged and bent edges that an explosion would cause.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:34 AM on October 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
The video was taken by the Swedish newspaper Expressen, after gaining permission from the authorities. It appears that section has been removed by Swedish investigators, as the edge of the pipe shows a fairly clean cut, not the jagged and bent edges that an explosion would cause.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:34 AM on October 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Zvezda News video showing a train travelling along the Crimea rail bridge on the outer track as they state "trains are running constantly"
Both the car and the train are traveling southwards; the train is on the normal track for its direction which is the unmolten one.
I've tried to estimate the train's speed: it passes two of the masts that are on the rail bridge in roughly two seconds. There are four of those masts on each 100m long span, so it's going about 25m/s (90km/h, 55mph). Sounds about normal for the situation, the track on that side as good as undamaged, no damage to signals cabling. Trains the other way can run at the same speed if they're switched to the (for them) left track if the signalling has been designed to facilitate that, which would be daft if it didn't. But it would still leave the Russians with, for the moment, a single track line. It's hard to find the data I want between all the news of the bridge attack, but it appears there are no crossover points on the entire length of the bridge that would allow a train to switch tracks. On the other hand, 20km is not an extraordinarily long section to go without such a facility.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 PM on October 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Both the car and the train are traveling southwards; the train is on the normal track for its direction which is the unmolten one.
I've tried to estimate the train's speed: it passes two of the masts that are on the rail bridge in roughly two seconds. There are four of those masts on each 100m long span, so it's going about 25m/s (90km/h, 55mph). Sounds about normal for the situation, the track on that side as good as undamaged, no damage to signals cabling. Trains the other way can run at the same speed if they're switched to the (for them) left track if the signalling has been designed to facilitate that, which would be daft if it didn't. But it would still leave the Russians with, for the moment, a single track line. It's hard to find the data I want between all the news of the bridge attack, but it appears there are no crossover points on the entire length of the bridge that would allow a train to switch tracks. On the other hand, 20km is not an extraordinarily long section to go without such a facility.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 PM on October 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
First one is about the Siloviki: the police forces. 2.6 million security forces across different federal agencies.
and that's why putin has failed - first, he made the mistake of thinking that his army could cow the ukrainians in the same manner his security forces cow his people - second, the army he owns and has made most proficient is occupying his own country, not ukraine
to be effective at war, he will have to let up on the people and order the security forces to the battlefield - i wouldn't bet on them going ...
posted by pyramid termite at 2:15 PM on October 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
and that's why putin has failed - first, he made the mistake of thinking that his army could cow the ukrainians in the same manner his security forces cow his people - second, the army he owns and has made most proficient is occupying his own country, not ukraine
to be effective at war, he will have to let up on the people and order the security forces to the battlefield - i wouldn't bet on them going ...
posted by pyramid termite at 2:15 PM on October 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
From the Guardian 1: The head of the Russian occupation administration in Kherson has spoken of plans to move up to 60,000 people across the Dnieper River and then into Russia as Moscow attempts to cling to the captured city ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Kremlin-installed occupation official Vladimir Saldo said Russia would transport 50,000-60,000 people to the Dnieper’s east bank – and then to Russia – at a rate of 10,000 people each day. “We are not going to surrender the city,” he said in a nationally televised interview on Wednesday (today).
Yet the mass removal of civilians would set the stage for just that. Kherson, the second-largest population centre in Ukraine captured by Russia during the war, is on the Dnieper’s west bank. Both civilians and the Russian occupation administration will be removed from the city. People would not be allowed to enter Kherson region for seven days, officials said.
From the Guardian 2: Russia’s strikes on critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine are “acts of pure terror” that amount to war crimes, the head of the European Commission has said.
In a speech to lawmakers in the European parliament this morning, Ursula von der Leyen said: Yesterday we saw again Russia’s targeted attacks against civilian infrastructure. This is marking another chapter in an already very cruel war. The international order is very clear. These are war crimes. Targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure with the clear aim to cut off men, women, children of water, electricity and heating with the winter coming, these are acts of pure terror and we have to call it as such.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:49 AM on October 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Kremlin-installed occupation official Vladimir Saldo said Russia would transport 50,000-60,000 people to the Dnieper’s east bank – and then to Russia – at a rate of 10,000 people each day. “We are not going to surrender the city,” he said in a nationally televised interview on Wednesday (today).
Yet the mass removal of civilians would set the stage for just that. Kherson, the second-largest population centre in Ukraine captured by Russia during the war, is on the Dnieper’s west bank. Both civilians and the Russian occupation administration will be removed from the city. People would not be allowed to enter Kherson region for seven days, officials said.
From the Guardian 2: Russia’s strikes on critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine are “acts of pure terror” that amount to war crimes, the head of the European Commission has said.
In a speech to lawmakers in the European parliament this morning, Ursula von der Leyen said: Yesterday we saw again Russia’s targeted attacks against civilian infrastructure. This is marking another chapter in an already very cruel war. The international order is very clear. These are war crimes. Targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure with the clear aim to cut off men, women, children of water, electricity and heating with the winter coming, these are acts of pure terror and we have to call it as such.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:49 AM on October 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
Putin Declared Martial Law
The President of the Russian Federation declared martial law in the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine: in parts of the Zaporizhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This was reported by the Kremlin website and by the Russian propaganda publication RIA Novosti with reference to Putin’s statement at the meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on October 19.
Moscow considers these Ukrainian territories “its own” after organizing fake referendums there.
The illegitimate martial law order, according to the Russian dictator, will take effect at 00:00 on October 20, 2022.
posted by Glinn at 7:59 AM on October 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
The President of the Russian Federation declared martial law in the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine: in parts of the Zaporizhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This was reported by the Kremlin website and by the Russian propaganda publication RIA Novosti with reference to Putin’s statement at the meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on October 19.
Moscow considers these Ukrainian territories “its own” after organizing fake referendums there.
The illegitimate martial law order, according to the Russian dictator, will take effect at 00:00 on October 20, 2022.
posted by Glinn at 7:59 AM on October 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
In the hallowed tradition of Radio Yerevan jokes:
"Is it true that the mobilisation is partial?"
"Yes - part of the mobilised men are in Georgia, part in Kazakhstan and part in Armenia."
Apparently it's also physically possible to drink so much you get sent home from the Russian army. No blood alcohol level data alas, because that would probably be a world record. (Currently held by Poland at 1.48 BAC so I'm betting they just gave the right bribes.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:04 AM on October 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
"Is it true that the mobilisation is partial?"
"Yes - part of the mobilised men are in Georgia, part in Kazakhstan and part in Armenia."
Apparently it's also physically possible to drink so much you get sent home from the Russian army. No blood alcohol level data alas, because that would probably be a world record. (Currently held by Poland at 1.48 BAC so I'm betting they just gave the right bribes.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:04 AM on October 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
From the daily ISW situation update:
posted by Stoneshop at 1:04 PM on October 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unequal implementation of partial mobilization is causing social fractures that are driving the Russian information space to further marginalize ethnic minority communities. As ISW has previously reported, an October 15 shooting at a Belgorod Oblast training ground was likely a natural consequence of the Kremlin’s continued policy of using poor and minority communities to bear the brunt of force generation efforts while protecting ethnic Russians and wealthier Russian citizens.[7] Russian sources blamed that shooting on two ethnically Tajik Russian citizens who had been forcibly mobilized.[8] The Russian information space has largely responded with virulently xenophobic rhetoric against Central Asian migrants and other peripheral social groups. “A Just Russia” Party Chairperson Sergey Mironov posted a long, xenophobic critique of Russia’s migration policy on October 18, claiming that mobilization exposed systemic fractures within the Russian immigration system.[9] Mironov blamed military commissars for allowing people who pose a threat to Russian security into the Russian Armed Forces and accused military commissariats of keeping their doors wide open for individuals from Central Asia. Mironov proposed a moratorium on granting Russian citizenship to citizens of Tajikistan.[10] Mironov’s calls for immigration reform demonstrate the role that partial mobilization has seemingly played in catalyzing ethnic divisions, racism, and xenophobia in the Russian domestic space, especially against ethnic minorities.Keep treating those non-Russians like dirt, keep them from any kind of recognition, and native Russians will increasingly have to go to the frontlines as those non-Russians will start turning out as much of a threat as a hand grenade with the pin removed.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:04 PM on October 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
I wonder what percentage of those "loyal" ethnic Russians were the first ones on a plane out of Russia when mobilization started...
posted by meowzilla at 4:12 PM on October 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 4:12 PM on October 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
The EU has officially sanctioned Iranian people and entities involved in selling drones to Russia.
Newest Polish data is that 1.4 million Ukrainian refugees have applied for Polish national ID numbers, which implies planning to stay in Poland longer. This agrees with border guards data that a lot of refugees have now returned to Ukraine.
And a big writeup in the Guardian about investigation of Russian war crimes. Apparently one of the people working at Hostomel airport before the attack nicked a pile of Russian personnel documents that were plain laying around within reach of prisoners, which really stresses how disorganised the initial attack was.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:50 AM on October 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Newest Polish data is that 1.4 million Ukrainian refugees have applied for Polish national ID numbers, which implies planning to stay in Poland longer. This agrees with border guards data that a lot of refugees have now returned to Ukraine.
And a big writeup in the Guardian about investigation of Russian war crimes. Apparently one of the people working at Hostomel airport before the attack nicked a pile of Russian personnel documents that were plain laying around within reach of prisoners, which really stresses how disorganised the initial attack was.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:50 AM on October 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Estonian-made surveillance drone, crowdfunded by Lithuanians.
I am the eye in the sky
Looking at you
I can read your mind
posted by Stoneshop at 8:25 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
I am the eye in the sky
Looking at you
I can read your mind
posted by Stoneshop at 8:25 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Kherson:
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is deliberately creating the grounds for a large-scale disaster in Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast.posted by UN at 7:07 PM on October 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
"We have information that Russians mined the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant," Zelensky said in an Oct. 20 address to the European Council.
The Kakhovka dam holds about 18 million cubic meters of water. If destroyed, over 80 settlements, including the regional capital Kherson, will be flooded, Zelensky said. The president added that an international observation mission is needed, as "hundreds of thousands of people may be affected."
It's like they could not try harder to paint themselves as the bad guys. It breaks my brain.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:37 PM on October 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 9:37 PM on October 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
Standard bully behaviour.
They've taken something off you but are forced to give it back.
They then throw it to the ground breaking it, tearing it up, or any other destructive action before leaving it for you to collect. They won't even hand it back in some normal way.
Bullies tend to have an excess of testosterone.
So proper democratic hygiene is to neuter your bullies before they start spraying.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:56 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
They've taken something off you but are forced to give it back.
They then throw it to the ground breaking it, tearing it up, or any other destructive action before leaving it for you to collect. They won't even hand it back in some normal way.
Bullies tend to have an excess of testosterone.
So proper democratic hygiene is to neuter your bullies before they start spraying.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:56 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
ACOUP has a new piece on strategic airpower with a bit on how it applies to Ukraine:
How likely is this Russian effort to succeed? Well, what we’ve seen so far is that air campaigns dropping millions of tons of high explosives have generally failed to compel a civilian population to seek peace. By contrast, a Shahed 136 drone carries a 40kg explosive payload. For comparison that means it would take ninety Shahed 136 drones to equal the payload of a single B-17 Flying Fortress and eight-eight thousand to equal the explosive power of the February, 1945 raids against Dresden. Those are efforts which, I feel the need to stress, didn’t work to collapse German civilian morale. Meanwhile the Shahed 136, while very cheap as a drone is very expensive as a bomb; at c. $20,000 a pop, matching the Dresden raids would require almost $2bn assuming the production capacity for that many drones existed (and it doesn’t). As Russia’s distance from Ukraine’s key civilian centers grows, the cost of delivering explosives to them increases, reducing Russia to demonstration attacks that, while horrible, have little chance of inflicting harm on Ukraine at a level that is remotely meaningful in this sort of war.posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:55 AM on October 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
Consequently these ‘punishment’ strikes seem likely to merely harden Ukrainian will to resist and sustain international support for Ukraine; they are expensive and almost entirely counter-productive for Russia’s actual war aims.
"Sailing". How the Russian army leaves the right bank of Kherson region
posted by Stoneshop at 2:22 AM on October 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
Occupants are moving military equipment and personnel from the right to the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region against the backdrop of recent rapid successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in de-occupying part of the region and further plans to liberate the region, including the announced intention to liberate the city of Kherson. Since the beginning of October, the cargo ferry has already made a number of such trips, transporting military personnel and military equipment across the Dnipro River from the area of Kozatske to Nova Kakhovka. This is evidenced by satellite images, as well as videos published by the occupiers themselves, according to a joint material of "Schemes" and the Russian service of Radio Liberty.Nice tight opsec they have there. It's just short of the Russian Army general staff mailing the plans straight to the UAF and cc: to NATO so they can plan what equipment to send.
Journalists found in social networks the profile of a military man named Makar Teplinsky, a native of Luhansk region, who is fighting on the side of Russia. Since the beginning of October, the soldier has been recording on photos and videos and publishing the movement of Russian servicemen and military equipment from the right to the left bank of the Dnipro River - to the territory of Ukraine occupied by the Russian army near the town of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. According to Planet Labs satellite photos, in early October, the Russian military suspended sending equipment to the "dangerous" right bank near the village of Kozatske: since then, the ferry has been leaving there empty, but returning to Nova Kakhovka with a full load.
On October 10, the soldier posted a photo taken on the ferry with military trucks on his profile in the social network Vkontakte.
Later he published a video in which he filmed himself sailing on this ferry together with military equipment. "We are sailing!" he says. "Who are you showing this to?" another soldier asks Teplinsky.
"Schemes" together with journalists of the Russian service of Radio Liberty were able to identify the location on this video and its exact coordinates: the video was shot near the right bank of the Dnipro near the village of Kozatske. At that time, a ferry with military equipment was moving along the canal through Kozatsky Island in the direction of Nova Kakhovka.
This ferry crossing, which is used by the Russian army for military logistics purposes, is well known to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which have repeatedly struck it. One of the strikes, as can be seen on the Sentinel-2 satellite image, took place on September 23: smoke can be seen in the area of the berth in Nova Kakhovka.
Since July 27, such missile attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Antonivskyi Bridge - the main artery connecting the two banks of the Dnipro River in Kherson region - have sharply complicated the positions of the Russian army in the region. After that, the Russian military began to regularly use ferry crossings and set up pontoon bridges.
Judging by satellite images, in October the export of military equipment towards Nova Kakhovka really intensified. For example, such a flight was recorded on October 5.
On satellite images of October 8, the ferry again goes towards Kozatske empty. One of these "evacuation" flights was probably filmed on Makar Teplinsky's video, which he published a few days later.
As for the soldier Makar Teplinsky, he later published a video from Nova Kakhovka, where his unit is located. For example, the video "Birthday of a friend of the Airborne Troops", as the Schemes found, was filmed in the restaurant "Nefertiti" in Nova Kakhovka.
Using face recognition service, journalists identified three more occupants who appeared in the photos and videos published by Teplinsky.
These are a resident of the Krasnodar Territory Rubik Mkrtichev and two more natives of the occupied Crimea Dmytro Chumak and Igor Kolmakov. Neither Teplinsky nor the three servicemen responded to the journalists' messages.
The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson region continues, and the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov and foreign military analysts do not rule out that in the near future the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to have a significant success in Kherson region, in particular to liberate the city of Kherson - the only regional center that the Russian army managed to occupy since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Against this background, the occupation authorities of Kherson region began to announce the "evacuation" of residents to the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
posted by Stoneshop at 2:22 AM on October 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
Nice tight opsec they have there. It's just short of the Russian Army general staff mailing the plans straight to the UAF and cc: to NATO so they can plan what equipment to send.
They have been consistently sloppy and careless about that. I mean, yes, obviously all of this is already being watched closely by satellite and people on the ground, so it's not like the Ukrainians don't already know about the movement of equipment, but posting all the details on social media is just such needless exposure. Like you say, they might as well be sending a memo straight to the general staff.
It's similar to how people keep posting close up photos and videos of the results of missile strikes on bridges -- that is just providing perfect detailed information about how to target the next set of strikes.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:43 AM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
They have been consistently sloppy and careless about that. I mean, yes, obviously all of this is already being watched closely by satellite and people on the ground, so it's not like the Ukrainians don't already know about the movement of equipment, but posting all the details on social media is just such needless exposure. Like you say, they might as well be sending a memo straight to the general staff.
It's similar to how people keep posting close up photos and videos of the results of missile strikes on bridges -- that is just providing perfect detailed information about how to target the next set of strikes.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:43 AM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Can they have an organized retreat with so little bandwidth? Once you get half the men and material back across the river, is the other half going to get rapidly crushed? I guess artillery can operate from the left bank, and Moscow can hope DPR/LPR conscripts hold a defensive position long enough to allow Russians to escape. Maybe they plan to hold the dam explicitly hostage?
posted by a robot made out of meat at 7:47 AM on October 21, 2022
posted by a robot made out of meat at 7:47 AM on October 21, 2022
One minor advantage of the west holding back some of its more advanced weapons is that maybe it gives us (and by extension Ukraine) some bargaining room. I hope we've called up the Russian ambassador and said something like: "You blow up the Nova Kakhovka Dam and we start sending Ukraine 10 ATACMS per week."
posted by Reverend John at 7:59 AM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:59 AM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Iranian drones are a lot more like the V-1 than the B-17.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on October 21, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on October 21, 2022
Wasserfall
Rheinbote
The Aggregat series.
No, it's more like a B- 17 as the bomber was piloted thus delivering a more precise payload. The Remote nature of the V-2 behaves more like these Iranian drones. The ability to remotely target enemies went wild in WW 2. I recall a story of an American scientist looking through a television monitor at the missile coming right at him. I highly recommend, Tom Shactman' ' Terrors and Marvels' on WW2 advanced weaponary. quite surprised that none of these other systems have been mentioned comparison to the war in Ukraine.
"Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant"
"If it were to burst, it would cause a "catastrophe on a grand scale", Zelensky told the European Council on Thursday.
Hundreds of thousands of people around the lower Dnieper would be in danger of flooding, including the city of Kherson itself.
"This could destroy the supply of water to a large part of southern Ukraine," as well as affect the cooling system for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station which relies on the Kakhovka reservoir." says france24
"Can they have an organized retreat with so little bandwidth?"
"Kherson City Telegram accounts claimed on October 20 that Russian forces disbanded and looted a fire station in Kherson City and ferried fire trucks, stolen civilian cars, and other miscellaneous household items across the Dnipro River to Hola Prystan...Taken in tandem, these reports indicate that Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have likely learned, at least in part, from their failures during the panicked Russian retreat from Kharkiv Oblast in the face of a previous Ukrainian counteroffensive."
"A local Pskov Russian Telegram channel commented on the conflict between the Pskov Oblast governor and local MoD-run military commissariat, noting that local military registration and enlistment offices pay little attention to what Russian governors want or say."
Interesting. Like the Nomenklatura reinstated.
posted by clavdivs at 4:56 PM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Rheinbote
The Aggregat series.
No, it's more like a B- 17 as the bomber was piloted thus delivering a more precise payload. The Remote nature of the V-2 behaves more like these Iranian drones. The ability to remotely target enemies went wild in WW 2. I recall a story of an American scientist looking through a television monitor at the missile coming right at him. I highly recommend, Tom Shactman' ' Terrors and Marvels' on WW2 advanced weaponary. quite surprised that none of these other systems have been mentioned comparison to the war in Ukraine.
"Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant"
"If it were to burst, it would cause a "catastrophe on a grand scale", Zelensky told the European Council on Thursday.
Hundreds of thousands of people around the lower Dnieper would be in danger of flooding, including the city of Kherson itself.
"This could destroy the supply of water to a large part of southern Ukraine," as well as affect the cooling system for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station which relies on the Kakhovka reservoir." says france24
"Can they have an organized retreat with so little bandwidth?"
"Kherson City Telegram accounts claimed on October 20 that Russian forces disbanded and looted a fire station in Kherson City and ferried fire trucks, stolen civilian cars, and other miscellaneous household items across the Dnipro River to Hola Prystan...Taken in tandem, these reports indicate that Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have likely learned, at least in part, from their failures during the panicked Russian retreat from Kharkiv Oblast in the face of a previous Ukrainian counteroffensive."
"A local Pskov Russian Telegram channel commented on the conflict between the Pskov Oblast governor and local MoD-run military commissariat, noting that local military registration and enlistment offices pay little attention to what Russian governors want or say."
Interesting. Like the Nomenklatura reinstated.
posted by clavdivs at 4:56 PM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
their continued strong stance possibly means something.
Lockheed making moves to increase HIMARS production to 96 per year. 10-18
Pentagon replacing HIMARS launcher and rocket stocks sent to Ukraine. 10-19
Prices Of HIMARS ‘Skyrocket’! Taiwan To Pay Additional NT $400M To Receive 1st Batch Of US MLRS 10-19
posted by clavdivs at 5:08 PM on October 21, 2022
Lockheed making moves to increase HIMARS production to 96 per year. 10-18
Pentagon replacing HIMARS launcher and rocket stocks sent to Ukraine. 10-19
Prices Of HIMARS ‘Skyrocket’! Taiwan To Pay Additional NT $400M To Receive 1st Batch Of US MLRS 10-19
posted by clavdivs at 5:08 PM on October 21, 2022
ISW: Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into #Kherson Oblast.
If they are confident Russia will blow the dam to cover their withdrawal: it seems like it'd make sense for Ukraine to preempt them and bomb it themselves/trigger the mines early and complicate that retreat.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 7:54 PM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
If they are confident Russia will blow the dam to cover their withdrawal: it seems like it'd make sense for Ukraine to preempt them and bomb it themselves/trigger the mines early and complicate that retreat.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 7:54 PM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Russians might appreciate the propaganda value of the Ukrainians blowing up the dam a lot more than the loss of whatever troops they might lose in the process.
posted by Reverend John at 8:00 PM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 8:00 PM on October 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
That part isn't great, but it's a war for survival. I guess we'll see what happens.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 8:41 PM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 8:41 PM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
it seems like it'd make sense for Ukraine to preempt them and bomb it themselves/trigger the mines early and complicate that retreat.
Probably the worst thing I've heard, I scooped your KI report hours ago, read it for any further pre-emptive nightmare on said countries infrastructure in order to possibly rout
the Russian army,
posted by clavdivs at 9:55 PM on October 21, 2022
Probably the worst thing I've heard, I scooped your KI report hours ago, read it for any further pre-emptive nightmare on said countries infrastructure in order to possibly rout
the Russian army,
posted by clavdivs at 9:55 PM on October 21, 2022
Looks like Ukraine is getting hammered again this morning by missiles from the sea. Gas pipelines, energy infrastructure has been hit. Surface-to-air and Ukrainian aircraft are knocking things down though. Here's amazing video of a MiG-29 shooting down a missile in Odessa posted online in the last few minutes.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:06 PM on October 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:06 PM on October 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Potentially saving civilian lives is worth any disparities in materiel costs. Give'r! Good shooting.
posted by porpoise at 11:40 PM on October 21, 2022
posted by porpoise at 11:40 PM on October 21, 2022
disparities in materiel costs
These are cruise missiles - not cheap drones. I think the cruise missiles being shot down should cost more than the air-to-air missiles taking them out, at least if it's anything like comparing the cost of a Sidewinder to a Tomahawk. Here's another one this morning, this time in Chernivtsi Oblast.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:02 AM on October 22, 2022
These are cruise missiles - not cheap drones. I think the cruise missiles being shot down should cost more than the air-to-air missiles taking them out, at least if it's anything like comparing the cost of a Sidewinder to a Tomahawk. Here's another one this morning, this time in Chernivtsi Oblast.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:02 AM on October 22, 2022
snuffleupagus: The Iranian drones are a lot more like the V-1 than the B-17.
The Shahed-136 is fairly like an up-to-date, scaled down V1. It flies a horizontal trajectory just like a V1, is GPS-guided but only pre-programmed, not remotely controlled to adjust its course when needed, so only useful against stationary targets, and has a significantly smaller explosive load. The V1's course and flight time was similarly preset, and with its flight control device (using gyroscopes and compressed air to control its flight surfaces) it was surprisingly good at keeping course and hitting its intended target.
Most air-to-air V1 kills were done just by fighter planes shooting them from a sufficient distance. There were ways to upset their flight sufficiently that the controller could not correct; one time a pilot reported that his attempt had the V1 turn upside down and continue on for a short while before diving down into a field.
Wing-tipping was one of those methods until the Germans fitted small explosive loads to the V1's wing tips, causing at least two RAF fighters to crash.
I suspect a Shahed-136 and the even smaller -131 can be fairly easily and cheaply taken down with a Cessna/Beechcraft/Piper-type sports plane, able to catch up if it's ahead then keep the same speed, manned with a pilot and a gunner. Or even using a WW1 biplane, the ones with a gunner operating a swiveling machine gun. Shoot at it from a bit ahead and sufficiently outside the blast radius? Damaging the propeller or killing the engine might be even safer as it would likely just dive down before exploding on the ground.
The B-17 comparison upthread was just in reference to the bomb load an entire sortie over a German city could unleash, and the lack of effect it had on civilian morale.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:08 AM on October 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Shahed-136 is fairly like an up-to-date, scaled down V1. It flies a horizontal trajectory just like a V1, is GPS-guided but only pre-programmed, not remotely controlled to adjust its course when needed, so only useful against stationary targets, and has a significantly smaller explosive load. The V1's course and flight time was similarly preset, and with its flight control device (using gyroscopes and compressed air to control its flight surfaces) it was surprisingly good at keeping course and hitting its intended target.
Most air-to-air V1 kills were done just by fighter planes shooting them from a sufficient distance. There were ways to upset their flight sufficiently that the controller could not correct; one time a pilot reported that his attempt had the V1 turn upside down and continue on for a short while before diving down into a field.
Wing-tipping was one of those methods until the Germans fitted small explosive loads to the V1's wing tips, causing at least two RAF fighters to crash.
I suspect a Shahed-136 and the even smaller -131 can be fairly easily and cheaply taken down with a Cessna/Beechcraft/Piper-type sports plane, able to catch up if it's ahead then keep the same speed, manned with a pilot and a gunner. Or even using a WW1 biplane, the ones with a gunner operating a swiveling machine gun. Shoot at it from a bit ahead and sufficiently outside the blast radius? Damaging the propeller or killing the engine might be even safer as it would likely just dive down before exploding on the ground.
The B-17 comparison upthread was just in reference to the bomb load an entire sortie over a German city could unleash, and the lack of effect it had on civilian morale.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:08 AM on October 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Excerpts from the interrogation of a Russian convict 'recruited' by the Wagner group. Full video on youtube, the excerpt is subtitled.
No training, and only minimal food and ammunition. From the ISW report for October 21:
No training, and only minimal food and ammunition. From the ISW report for October 21:
Mobilized Russian prisoners continue their poor battlefield performance. A captured Wagner soldier who was recruited from a Ryazan penal colony stated that three-fourths of his unit died in combat near Bakhmut, and that Russian forces shot his comrades who refused to fight, instructed them to commit suicide rather than face capture, did not pay them, and treated them like cannon fodder.[59] Another mobilized prisoner stated that Russian mobilization officials forced Russian prisoners to mobilize, did not provide Russian prisoners any training, and provided enough food for soldiers to eat only one meal a day.[60]posted by Stoneshop at 1:33 AM on October 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Also, if these guys were deployed near Bakhmut and being left with insufficient food: the least inedible stuff to forage around there would be the roots of plants. Anything above the potholed ground is charred and burnt, no ripe grain far and wide, and you could credibly turn any video footage into a WW1 movie if you edit out the modern weaponry.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:12 AM on October 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Stoneshop at 4:12 AM on October 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Sunflowers Beneath the Snow: Here's another one this morning, this time in Chernivtsi Oblast.
Sorry, but those were exactly the same videos. Also, it was likely a Shahed; a cruise missile would be larger, about half as long as the MiG, faster, and its warhead would cause a bigger explosion.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:42 AM on October 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Sorry, but those were exactly the same videos. Also, it was likely a Shahed; a cruise missile would be larger, about half as long as the MiG, faster, and its warhead would cause a bigger explosion.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:42 AM on October 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's also the Neptune Strike exercise, which places the Bush carrier group under NATO command, and the Steadfast Noon nuclear readiness exercise (mentioned in the link), which will put B-52s over the North Sea.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 AM on October 22, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 AM on October 22, 2022
Yeah the ACOUP strategic air power blog post is quite good. My takeaway from that is that Russia's behind-the-front strikes are a mix of "reasonable idea that probably isn't going to work" and "terrible, terrible idea driven entirely by emotion". The attack on energy infrastructure could conceivably get enough people concerned about the humanitarian consequences of a winter without heat to compromise where they might not have before. According to Devereaux, though, they do not have anywhere near the bomb tonnage to effectively achieve that. I would say though, actual effect is not the same as the perceived effect, and that the information war could amplify a few strikes into a (false) real worry.
The straight-up terror strikes that don't even target industry or energy infrastructure are more likely fatally counter-productive to Russia needing economic allies or at least needing Ukraine's allies to lose interest.
posted by ctmf at 1:27 PM on October 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
The straight-up terror strikes that don't even target industry or energy infrastructure are more likely fatally counter-productive to Russia needing economic allies or at least needing Ukraine's allies to lose interest.
posted by ctmf at 1:27 PM on October 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Not sure if there are any horses left in the stable, but:
Russian authorities likely seek to impose greater secrecy surrounding force generation logistics due to the impact of continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian supply hubs and supply lines. A prominent Russian milblogger stated on October 22 that occupation authorities in Crimea banned the filming of vehicles, engineering structures, railways, communications infrastructure, and information relevant to the navigation and location of Russian forces. The milblogger praised the initiative as “long overdue” and called for Russian federal subjects to similarly limit reporting on force generation efforts.[54] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Belarusian security officials are enforcing similar restrictions in Pinsk and Stolinsk Raions in Belarus, likely to prevent Belarusians from recording the movement of Russian troops into training grounds.[55]
posted by Stoneshop at 2:53 AM on October 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russian authorities likely seek to impose greater secrecy surrounding force generation logistics due to the impact of continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian supply hubs and supply lines. A prominent Russian milblogger stated on October 22 that occupation authorities in Crimea banned the filming of vehicles, engineering structures, railways, communications infrastructure, and information relevant to the navigation and location of Russian forces. The milblogger praised the initiative as “long overdue” and called for Russian federal subjects to similarly limit reporting on force generation efforts.[54] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Belarusian security officials are enforcing similar restrictions in Pinsk and Stolinsk Raions in Belarus, likely to prevent Belarusians from recording the movement of Russian troops into training grounds.[55]
posted by Stoneshop at 2:53 AM on October 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
And a funny typo in the ISW report linked above:
(the source linked by the report mentions them being T-72A, which makes more sense)
posted by Stoneshop at 4:48 AM on October 23, 2022
A Belarusian opposition channel reported that Belarus provided more than 24 T-27A tanks to Russian forces heading in the Donetsk direction.[68]T-27 happens to be a valid model number for a Russian tank. Cute, isn't it?
(the source linked by the report mentions them being T-72A, which makes more sense)
posted by Stoneshop at 4:48 AM on October 23, 2022
There's a pretty wild helmet cam video of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting from his aircraft into a field doing the rounds.
posted by Harald74 at 1:01 AM on October 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 1:01 AM on October 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Adam Tooze's scathing review of the CEPR report on the suggested macroeconomic policies for Ukraine: Chartbook #163: Warfare without the state - New Keynesian shock therapy for Ukraine's home front.
The report is clearly motivated by real concern for Ukraine’s situation. But I fear that its proposals threaten to undermine what it seeks to defend. When democracy is under attack we need to tread carefully on political economy. The CEPR authors do the opposite. Contrary to what you might expect, namely that war would lead to a search for solidaristic social and economic measures to shore up the Ukrainian home front, the CEPR team demand radical deregulation.posted by kmt at 4:46 AM on October 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
...
As the Ukrainian advocates of deregulation are clearly aware, the deregulatory agenda involves a radical reconstruction of the post-Soviet order in their country. And they may, of course, have a point. But to conduct this kind of reconstruction under wartime conditions when the scope for public debate, strikes and opposition is limited, short-circuits democracy. Since defending democracy is part of Ukraine’s appeal this is bitterly ironic.
Very clever "side-channel attack" on Russian statistical data: A new, and a very good, estimate of the number of people that Russia mobilized over the last 30 days is higher than before.
@mediazzzona
get the estimate of 500,000 using a very smart identification strategy. They link the number of draftees in each region to excess marriages. 1/
posted by kmt at 12:10 PM on October 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
@mediazzzona
get the estimate of 500,000 using a very smart identification strategy. They link the number of draftees in each region to excess marriages. 1/
posted by kmt at 12:10 PM on October 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
Bellingcat: The Remote Control Killers Behind Russia’s Cruise Missile Strikes on Ukraine
Following a six-month-long investigation, Bellingcat and its investigative partners The Insider and Der Spiegel were able to discover a hitherto secretive group of dozens of military engineers with an educational and professional background in missile programming. Phone metadata shows contacts between these individuals and their superiors spiked shortly before many of the high-precision Russian cruise missile strikes that have killed hundreds and deprived millions in Ukraine of access to electricity and heating.posted by BungaDunga at 12:37 PM on October 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
Rebuilding Ukraine is a "generational task that must begin now," said Germany's Olaf Scholz and the EU's Ursula von der Leyen. Ukrainian and German experts are meeting in Berlin to discuss support for the reconstruction.posted by UN at 10:46 PM on October 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have called for a strategy to rebuild Ukraine after the war as experts meet in Berlin for an economic forum.
"Even if one should always be careful with historical comparisons, the issue here is nothing less than creating a new Marshall Plan for the 21st century," Scholz and von der Leyen wrote in an essay published in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Monday edition.
Here in Norway a Russian spy with a Brazilian identity was arrested the other day (machine translation). That is on top of our collection of at least seven Russian drone and photography enthusiasts arrested in a week (machine translation).
Concerns about Russian interference or direct sabotage has caused Norway and allies to step up security around the Norwegian energy infrastructure, with among other three German frigates staying behind after a previously scheduled exercise in Norwegian waters (machine translation).
posted by Harald74 at 3:38 AM on October 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
Concerns about Russian interference or direct sabotage has caused Norway and allies to step up security around the Norwegian energy infrastructure, with among other three German frigates staying behind after a previously scheduled exercise in Norwegian waters (machine translation).
posted by Harald74 at 3:38 AM on October 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
Reuters long-form article: Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
posted by Harald74 at 5:16 AM on October 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:16 AM on October 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
Here's a bit more on the alleged Brazilian spy from Canadian media in the characteristically provincial style (did you know he went to school in Canada!? It's true!)
posted by figurant at 7:26 AM on October 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by figurant at 7:26 AM on October 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
Here's a bit of good news:
The war in Ukraine is raging, Russian natural gas exports to Europe are dwindling and the winter heating season is approaching. That would seem like a recipe for higher prices, yet the cost of the fuel, which is vital for heating homes and for powering electricity plants and industry, has been plummeting.posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:06 PM on October 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
The benchmark European price of natural gas this week fell to a level that is more than 70 percent below its record high in August. One of the main reasons for the plunge in prices is that Europe, at least for now, has all the natural gas it needs.
That is because over the summer, Europe went on a global buying spree as Russia, its longtime main supplier, reduced its flow of natural gas. ...
The rush to sell to Europe was so great that vessels are now loitering off the coast waiting for slots at crowded terminals to unload their cargoes. One illustration of the glut: In recent days, at least one L.N.G. carrier heading from Algeria to Europe appears to have diverted to Asia in search of a better price, according to Laura Page, an analyst at Kpler, a research firm.
Europe’s healthy stocks of gas represent a substantial buffer against further cutoffs of Russian supplies or other shocks.
There's a pretty wild helmet cam video yt of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting from his aircraft into a field doing the rounds.
I just watched a youtube video interview of a former fighter pilot who had ejected from a jet and apparently it almost always entails really serious injury and something like 80% of ejectees get some form of spinal injury. Non-trivial decision to eject (he also pointed out that most pilots who die in a fighter jet crash die from "hesitation"). Certainly, very different reality from the movie/tv portrayals.
posted by srboisvert at 1:35 PM on October 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
I just watched a youtube video interview of a former fighter pilot who had ejected from a jet and apparently it almost always entails really serious injury and something like 80% of ejectees get some form of spinal injury. Non-trivial decision to eject (he also pointed out that most pilots who die in a fighter jet crash die from "hesitation"). Certainly, very different reality from the movie/tv portrayals.
posted by srboisvert at 1:35 PM on October 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
My brother is a former MiG-29 pilot who, a few years ago, had to eject. He lost consciousness when he pulled the handle, his next memory is waking up in a field with a farmer asking if he was OK. No lasting injuries but still no memory of the event. Another ejectee that he knows does have persistent back problems after his ejection and had to stop flying.
posted by phliar at 3:28 PM on October 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by phliar at 3:28 PM on October 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
I was at the airshow at RAF Fairford in 1993 where the two MiG-29s collided and saw the whole thing. Both pilots survived. I had my eyes on the one going upwards. I remember seeing the seat fire and thinking holy shit. It really is violent as hell how fast it moves. I thought the other guy was a goner, because that plane just fireballed and was on the ground almost immediately, but then saw both chutes coming down.
Watched that exact broadcast on TV the next day, so I got to see afterwards how it had all happened, close up and in slow motion. It wasn't until then that I realised just how lucky the second guy was to get out. The whole aircraft was cut in half, right behind him. But there in the moment it was just BOOM-whiz-chutes. It's really insane how fast it all happens.
posted by automatronic at 4:45 PM on October 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Watched that exact broadcast on TV the next day, so I got to see afterwards how it had all happened, close up and in slow motion. It wasn't until then that I realised just how lucky the second guy was to get out. The whole aircraft was cut in half, right behind him. But there in the moment it was just BOOM-whiz-chutes. It's really insane how fast it all happens.
posted by automatronic at 4:45 PM on October 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
apparently it almost always entails really serious injury and something like 80% of ejectees get some form of spinal injury.
Another ejectee that he knows does have persistent back problems after his ejection and had to stop flying
I know I have heard the same thing mentioned in at least a handful of interviews with former pilots (whether about themselves, or others they had served with).
On the other hand, in a truly unrecoverable situation it might be harder mentally not to punch out in an attempt to miss a residential building. Kinda hard to judge someone for how they manage their reactions in a situation like that...and when it comes to the current Russian air forces, it's the really the lack of proper maintenance that's killing both the pilots and whoever their planes crash on top of. (There was just another crash that killed the pilot in which RU is saying the on-board oxygen tanks may have been filled with nitrogen, hit a house but no one was in it.)
GA pilots do somewhat regularly make decisions that reduce their own chances of surviving to reduce risk to people on the ground, but they don't typically have the option of bailing out. (Recent stunts being the exception that prove the rule.) They probably also have, on average, better glide ratios and dead stick handling than a modern combat jet (especially one with stores loaded).
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:11 PM on October 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Another ejectee that he knows does have persistent back problems after his ejection and had to stop flying
I know I have heard the same thing mentioned in at least a handful of interviews with former pilots (whether about themselves, or others they had served with).
On the other hand, in a truly unrecoverable situation it might be harder mentally not to punch out in an attempt to miss a residential building. Kinda hard to judge someone for how they manage their reactions in a situation like that...and when it comes to the current Russian air forces, it's the really the lack of proper maintenance that's killing both the pilots and whoever their planes crash on top of. (There was just another crash that killed the pilot in which RU is saying the on-board oxygen tanks may have been filled with nitrogen, hit a house but no one was in it.)
GA pilots do somewhat regularly make decisions that reduce their own chances of surviving to reduce risk to people on the ground, but they don't typically have the option of bailing out. (Recent stunts being the exception that prove the rule.) They probably also have, on average, better glide ratios and dead stick handling than a modern combat jet (especially one with stores loaded).
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:11 PM on October 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Refugee update, because there are two big articles in Wyborcza today.
First one is about the transit center in Warsaw Ptak Expo halls in Nadarzyn near Warsaw. They've taken care of nearly 120K people since February, but the remaining 2000 residents (about 20% of nominal capacity) are now chiefly people too disabled or incapable of finding more permanent placements on their own. Illiterate people, heavily ill (including mentally ill people and cancer patients), plus the heavily discriminated against Roma minority. About 60 kids are attending a school in the expo hall while still living in open-space cots, with access to showers for two hours per day, relying on gifts and some corporate donors of space and services and medication. Only about 250 people were able to leave last month, all with the help of volunteers finding placements. Unsurprisingly the government still has no stable aid system and the newest idea to get these people to move on is to start charging them for their stay from January onwards. And winter is looming, as is the possibility of another refugee wave - Ukrainians have officially asked refugees not to go back yet because of the strain and damage to the electrical and heating system.
Second is a nightmare - a Ukrainian foster parent evacuated her ten foster kids to Poznan and was aided by Polish foster parents who quickly identified stunning abuse and got the kids to talk to the police. Turns out she was not only abusing them in various ways, but hiring them out to pedophiles. Kids are safe now with the Polish foster parents if heavily damaged (one had to stay at a psychiatric hospital for two months) and the whole thing shone a spotlight at Ukraine's pre-war status as a supplier of CSA victims to rich clients due to lack of money and supervision in the child protection and foster system.
The refugee support wave has definitely ebbed - I dug up some useful camping gear from my cellar and haven't found anyone in Warsaw still collecting it. Food is collected in supermarkets, but inflation is pushing 20%. Still a lot of Ukrainian spoken everywhere and the people using it now sound less shellshocked - they've mostly found jobs and apartments now, but the most vulnerable are falling through the cracks.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:23 AM on October 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
First one is about the transit center in Warsaw Ptak Expo halls in Nadarzyn near Warsaw. They've taken care of nearly 120K people since February, but the remaining 2000 residents (about 20% of nominal capacity) are now chiefly people too disabled or incapable of finding more permanent placements on their own. Illiterate people, heavily ill (including mentally ill people and cancer patients), plus the heavily discriminated against Roma minority. About 60 kids are attending a school in the expo hall while still living in open-space cots, with access to showers for two hours per day, relying on gifts and some corporate donors of space and services and medication. Only about 250 people were able to leave last month, all with the help of volunteers finding placements. Unsurprisingly the government still has no stable aid system and the newest idea to get these people to move on is to start charging them for their stay from January onwards. And winter is looming, as is the possibility of another refugee wave - Ukrainians have officially asked refugees not to go back yet because of the strain and damage to the electrical and heating system.
Second is a nightmare - a Ukrainian foster parent evacuated her ten foster kids to Poznan and was aided by Polish foster parents who quickly identified stunning abuse and got the kids to talk to the police. Turns out she was not only abusing them in various ways, but hiring them out to pedophiles. Kids are safe now with the Polish foster parents if heavily damaged (one had to stay at a psychiatric hospital for two months) and the whole thing shone a spotlight at Ukraine's pre-war status as a supplier of CSA victims to rich clients due to lack of money and supervision in the child protection and foster system.
The refugee support wave has definitely ebbed - I dug up some useful camping gear from my cellar and haven't found anyone in Warsaw still collecting it. Food is collected in supermarkets, but inflation is pushing 20%. Still a lot of Ukrainian spoken everywhere and the people using it now sound less shellshocked - they've mostly found jobs and apartments now, but the most vulnerable are falling through the cracks.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:23 AM on October 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
Concerns about Russian interference or direct sabotage has caused Norway and allies to step up security around the Norwegian energy infrastructure,
The Russian characters in Occupied were way more competent and way less evil.
posted by ocschwar at 7:30 AM on October 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
The cartoon villainy is hardly diminished by threatening commercial satellites.
I guess the Elon/Putin bromance is over.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:42 AM on October 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I guess the Elon/Putin bromance is over.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:42 AM on October 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Article from the Dutch broadcaster NOS about those Russian dirty bomb claims
Russia shows Slovenian photos as proof of dirty bomb
Photos distributed by the Russian Foreign Ministry to prove that Ukraine is working on a "dirty bomb" were taken 12 years ago, according to a Ukrainian newspaper. They came from a Slovenian agency [ARAO - Slovenian Radioactive Waste Management Agency] responsible for processing nuclear waste. The Slovenian government confirmed that. An adviser to the Slovenian government says Russia used the photos "for wrong purposes and without the knowledge of the Slovenian government.
The photos show transparent plastic bags. There are logos on them indicating that they contain radioactive material. Slovenian atomic experts reportedly recognized the bags. According to them, they contain smoke detectors and the photos were taken for a demonstration on nuclear waste disposal.
The Russian ministry posted the photos on Twitter Monday, saying, "Information shows that two Ukrainian organizations have been ordered to make a so-called dirty bomb." A dirty bomb is an explosive surrounded by radioactive material. When it explodes, radioactive radiation is released at the site where this happens. Ukraine and Western countries fear that Russia wants to use the nonexistent Ukrainian dirty bomb, or its deployment, as a pretext to deploy a nuclear weapon of its own.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
And yesterday's Fokke and Sukke cartoon
"Fokke and Sukke are opposing the dirty bomb"
"Therefore we advocate that by 2030"
"to deploy only fully reusable bombs"
(probably using compressed air and bomb fragments attached to each other with bungee cord so they can be easily collected again)
posted by Stoneshop at 11:33 AM on October 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia shows Slovenian photos as proof of dirty bomb
Photos distributed by the Russian Foreign Ministry to prove that Ukraine is working on a "dirty bomb" were taken 12 years ago, according to a Ukrainian newspaper. They came from a Slovenian agency [ARAO - Slovenian Radioactive Waste Management Agency] responsible for processing nuclear waste. The Slovenian government confirmed that. An adviser to the Slovenian government says Russia used the photos "for wrong purposes and without the knowledge of the Slovenian government.
The photos show transparent plastic bags. There are logos on them indicating that they contain radioactive material. Slovenian atomic experts reportedly recognized the bags. According to them, they contain smoke detectors and the photos were taken for a demonstration on nuclear waste disposal.
The Russian ministry posted the photos on Twitter Monday, saying, "Information shows that two Ukrainian organizations have been ordered to make a so-called dirty bomb." A dirty bomb is an explosive surrounded by radioactive material. When it explodes, radioactive radiation is released at the site where this happens. Ukraine and Western countries fear that Russia wants to use the nonexistent Ukrainian dirty bomb, or its deployment, as a pretext to deploy a nuclear weapon of its own.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
And yesterday's Fokke and Sukke cartoon
"Fokke and Sukke are opposing the dirty bomb"
"Therefore we advocate that by 2030"
"to deploy only fully reusable bombs"
(probably using compressed air and bomb fragments attached to each other with bungee cord so they can be easily collected again)
posted by Stoneshop at 11:33 AM on October 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
On the other hand, in a truly unrecoverable situation it might be harder mentally not to punch out in an attempt to miss a residential building. Kinda hard to judge someone for how they manage their reactions in a situation like that...and when it comes to the current Russian air forces, it's the really the lack of proper maintenance that's killing both the pilots and whoever their planes crash on top of. (There was just another crash that killed the pilot in which RU is saying the on-board oxygen tanks may have been filled with nitrogen, hit a house but no one was in it.)
I feel like the Russian air force incompetence is being greatly exaggerated for propaganda reasons. It is not like the US air force is crash free even during relative peace-time operations (does that even really exist anymore?). I'm curious what the crash rates would be if the US was running at full out war capacity for 6+ months without total air superiority.
posted by srboisvert at 5:55 AM on October 28, 2022
I feel like the Russian air force incompetence is being greatly exaggerated for propaganda reasons. It is not like the US air force is crash free even during relative peace-time operations (does that even really exist anymore?). I'm curious what the crash rates would be if the US was running at full out war capacity for 6+ months without total air superiority.
posted by srboisvert at 5:55 AM on October 28, 2022
srboisvert: I feel like the Russian air force incompetence is being greatly exaggerated for propaganda reasons.
On the other side of that equation, how many sorties have they been flying over the past couple of months? Also, you might want to differentiate between aircraft being shot down in situations where that can be expected, pilots being cocky and misjudging the presence (and range) of MANPADS and other such gear, and stuff that seems to happen due to shoddy maintenance. My impression is that the numbers for the second type of crashes are higher than one might expect.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:49 AM on October 28, 2022
On the other side of that equation, how many sorties have they been flying over the past couple of months? Also, you might want to differentiate between aircraft being shot down in situations where that can be expected, pilots being cocky and misjudging the presence (and range) of MANPADS and other such gear, and stuff that seems to happen due to shoddy maintenance. My impression is that the numbers for the second type of crashes are higher than one might expect.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:49 AM on October 28, 2022
Yeah, it's specifically the non-combat crashes that aren't attributed to pilot error or weather etc. that are interesting—however you want to read it.
If Russia is eager to announce that a crash might have been caused by something like filling oxygen tanks with nitrogen, which is pretty embarrassing but provides a scapegoat, then maybe there are actually other problems they don't want to admit — like pilot shortfalls and training problems. Or just more serious maintenance problems, like the lack of replacement parts.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 AM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
If Russia is eager to announce that a crash might have been caused by something like filling oxygen tanks with nitrogen, which is pretty embarrassing but provides a scapegoat, then maybe there are actually other problems they don't want to admit — like pilot shortfalls and training problems. Or just more serious maintenance problems, like the lack of replacement parts.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 AM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Or MANPAD-enabled partisan activity in areas claimed to be secured by the Russian army.
posted by ocschwar at 9:58 AM on October 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 9:58 AM on October 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Or good old sabotage.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on October 28, 2022
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on October 28, 2022
Puzzled by the "Nitrogen instead of oxygen explanation" In the U.S. and Europe don't oxygen tanks and nitrogen tanks have incompatible threads?
posted by speug at 2:25 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by speug at 2:25 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
There are many puzzling explanations coming out of Russia, and most of them haven't withstood much real scrutiny. Make of that what you will.
posted by hippybear at 3:08 PM on October 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 3:08 PM on October 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
It seems like the Russians have evacuated Chornobaivka airport, after being bombed 40 times or so during the war.
posted by Harald74 at 10:09 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 10:09 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
did they withdraw or just run out of helicopters?
posted by ryanrs at 11:03 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 11:03 PM on October 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Corruption being a likely factor in the Kerch Strait Bridge attack? Say it isn't so.
"The Kerch bridge's security was managed by the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Department of Departmental Security (UVO) of the Ministry of Transport. " Just the name of that department (of redundancy department) should have scared any saboteurs off.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:25 AM on October 29, 2022
"The Kerch bridge's security was managed by the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Department of Departmental Security (UVO) of the Ministry of Transport. " Just the name of that department (of redundancy department) should have scared any saboteurs off.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:25 AM on October 29, 2022
I feel like the Russian air force incompetence is being greatly exaggerated for propaganda reasons. It is not like the US air force is crash free even during relative peace-time operations (does that even really exist anymore?). I'm curious what the crash rates would be if the US was running at full out war capacity for 6+ months without total air superiority.You can compare it to Afghanistan and Iraq, which definitely shows that the answer is a lot. However, your last sentence touches on the real reason why this criticism is so common: everyone expected Russia to have total air superiority after the first couple of days because on paper they had a much larger, better equipped force. The Russians have had huge casualties due to Ukrainian drone operators using equipment which would have been extremely risky to use with the electronic warfare capabilities which Russia had on paper.
Now they seem to be in a downward spiral where having lost so many pilots & planes means that the remaining ones are even more overtaxed, with each new loss making that worse. The US hasn’t been in that situation since WWII.
posted by adamsc at 6:05 AM on October 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
BBC: 'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia
posted by Harald74 at 7:21 AM on October 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 7:21 AM on October 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Video of the Sevastopol attack.. Both onboard video from the drones, as well as from a security camera close to the harbour.
Unclear how much damage they inflicted, but the security cam appears to show a secondary explosion.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:46 AM on October 29, 2022
Unclear how much damage they inflicted, but the security cam appears to show a secondary explosion.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:46 AM on October 29, 2022
That unmanned speed boats and uav can get that close and land any hits on such defended targets seems like a panic moment. This was the prototype. 9 drones isn’t “massive”…
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:34 AM on October 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:34 AM on October 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Short illustrated article on the likely nature of the Ukrainian drone boats.
posted by Rumple at 1:39 PM on October 29, 2022
posted by Rumple at 1:39 PM on October 29, 2022
Volodymyr Ishchenko on the economic policy the Kremlin picked: Russia’s military Keynesianism:
posted by kmt at 11:14 PM on October 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Kremlin would not be able to last long on sheer coercion. To score a military victory, Putin may be tempted to [...] or some other wildly escalatory option that would likely deprive him of his unreliable allies in the world. Then he would either bury the whole world with him or be removed by a Russian elite scared for their own lives.Pairs really well with Tooze's analysis posted above -- in fact Volodymyr explicitly cites Tooze's article.
The problem with this line of thinking is that more repression is not the only option for Putin and is not the only basis of his regime. To understand the other direction he could take, it is important to look at the political economy dimension of recent developments.
posted by kmt at 11:14 PM on October 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia has pulled out the grain deal, but there are still ships going out loaded with grain. Turkey and the UN has informed Russia of this fact, so we'll see how it plays out. I'm guessing nothing will happen.
posted by Harald74 at 6:15 AM on October 31, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 6:15 AM on October 31, 2022
Without missile ships, can Russia even hit Odessa at this point?
posted by ocschwar at 8:49 AM on October 31, 2022
posted by ocschwar at 8:49 AM on October 31, 2022
…so, what did happen with all those “drones/UWV’s” attacking Sebastopol? I have the feeling it was a PR boom but otherwise not much beyond a proof of concept.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:09 AM on October 31, 2022
posted by From Bklyn at 9:09 AM on October 31, 2022
It's going to be weeks before the truth leaks out. Neither side benefits from us knowing right now.
posted by ocschwar at 9:17 AM on October 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 9:17 AM on October 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
From Bklyn: …so, what did happen with all those “drones/UWV’s” attacking Sebastopol?
This time, Russia has tried to catch one of the horses before it left the barn by shutting down all public CCTV cams in Sevastopol. Not sure if that was sufficiently successful, but I've not seen any solid info on the results of the attack yet.
But I expect that in the coming days various OSINT groups will be poring over the newest set of pics by Maxar and Planetlabs, and we'll get to read what they've found.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:26 AM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
This time, Russia has tried to catch one of the horses before it left the barn by shutting down all public CCTV cams in Sevastopol. Not sure if that was sufficiently successful, but I've not seen any solid info on the results of the attack yet.
But I expect that in the coming days various OSINT groups will be poring over the newest set of pics by Maxar and Planetlabs, and we'll get to read what they've found.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:26 AM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Even if it didn't damage any ships, it probably was an effective attack in the sense that it cost the victims a huge ongoing expense by demonstrating a threat. Much like 9/11 FUBAR-ed airport security still to this day, now Russia has to decide whether or not to spend ridiculous money and nuisance to operations defending against an attack that will probably never happen again. "Probably", but do you want to be the one who decided not to defend and then a ship goes down?
Drone money well spent.
posted by ctmf at 12:56 PM on October 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Drone money well spent.
posted by ctmf at 12:56 PM on October 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Without missile ships, can Russia even hit Odessa at this point?
The Admiral Makarov is suspected to have been damaged, but the Black Sea Fleet is supposed to have two more of the Admiral Grigorovich class, and two older ones. The Grigorovich is in the Mediterranean, unable to get back to the Black Sea, and one of the older ones is currently being refitted. So still two frigates capable of action.
Oryx currently lists the Makarov and a minesweeper, the Ivan Golubets, as damaged. It's not dead certain yet, they occasionally retract entries, and especially the extent of the damage is still unclear.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:01 PM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Admiral Makarov is suspected to have been damaged, but the Black Sea Fleet is supposed to have two more of the Admiral Grigorovich class, and two older ones. The Grigorovich is in the Mediterranean, unable to get back to the Black Sea, and one of the older ones is currently being refitted. So still two frigates capable of action.
Oryx currently lists the Makarov and a minesweeper, the Ivan Golubets, as damaged. It's not dead certain yet, they occasionally retract entries, and especially the extent of the damage is still unclear.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:01 PM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Looking at the size of the explosion in those videos (it looks huge?) and how far these drone ships likely travelled for this attack .... Has it changed the thinking of what may have hit the Kerch Strait Bridge?
posted by UN at 11:29 PM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 11:29 PM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Putin has walked back to "suspending" not pulling out of the grain deal, so presumably we can continue feeding the world's hungry with Ukrainian grain.
posted by Harald74 at 2:55 AM on November 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:55 AM on November 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
UN: Has it changed the thinking of what may have hit the Kerch Strait Bridge?
Whatever it was, it wasn't something that exploded underneath the bridge deck, like one of these USVs would do.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:35 AM on November 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
Whatever it was, it wasn't something that exploded underneath the bridge deck, like one of these USVs would do.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:35 AM on November 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
"suspending" the gain deal maybe looks less weak than "we're afraid to sail our ships to the grain corridor right now".
posted by Ansible at 10:13 AM on November 1, 2022
posted by Ansible at 10:13 AM on November 1, 2022
Putin has walked back to "suspending" not pulling out of the grain deal
And more walking back.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:51 AM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
And more walking back.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:51 AM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Timothy Snyder lecture:
The War in Ukraine and the Question of Genocide:
Genocide is underway. If we don't see it, the failure is ours
posted by Kabanos at 7:07 AM on November 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
The War in Ukraine and the Question of Genocide:
Genocide is underway. If we don't see it, the failure is ours
posted by Kabanos at 7:07 AM on November 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
That lecture, Kabanos. So hard to listen to but so important.
posted by Bella Donna at 7:54 AM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bella Donna at 7:54 AM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Anatoly Karpov who is a former world chess champion, member of Russia’s parliament and longtime Putin supporter was found beaten on the street and is now on the hospital. He had recently made a very muted criticism of the war.
posted by interogative mood at 8:29 AM on November 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:29 AM on November 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
Putin has walked back to "suspending" not pulling out of the grain deal
And more walking back.
Nothing says superpower quite like Turkey and Iran telling you what to do.
posted by srboisvert at 10:03 AM on November 2, 2022 [11 favorites]
And more walking back.
Nothing says superpower quite like Turkey and Iran telling you what to do.
posted by srboisvert at 10:03 AM on November 2, 2022 [11 favorites]
NYT: Russia Rejoins Grain Deal, but Warns It Could Pull Out Again
"OK, we're not taking our ball and going home after all. But we could change our mind!" LOL.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
"OK, we're not taking our ball and going home after all. But we could change our mind!" LOL.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
New video from Kings And Generals, covering Oct 1-15: Attack On The Kerch Bridge [30m]
posted by hippybear at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2022
posted by hippybear at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2022
“Instead of creating a territorial defence unit, we might be just arming the enemy.”
The city’s loss would be another major embarrassment for Putin, who last month proclaimed that Russia would remain in Kherson “forever”.posted by Stoneshop at 9:07 AM on November 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ukraine has so far strongly dismissed reports that Moscow was planning to give up the city, instead suggesting that the Kremlin was sending more troops to bolster its defence.
“They are not preparing to exit now,” Gen Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda on Monday.
“They are preparing to defend,” he added, indicating that he believed Moscow was readying the city for urban combat.
However, those who have stayed behind in Kherson said there were few signs that the city was being prepared for a major defence.
One resident, Irina, said she had noticed “a few” fortifications made of sandbags constructed at government buildings to defend the city. “But overall, we haven’t been told to get ready for war,” she said. “It feels like they have left us alone.”
Irina said she was recently approached by three newly mobilised Russian soldiers who asked her where they could buy cigarettes and alcohol. “They said that they did not know what they were doing in the city. It did not feel like they were ready for a big battle.”
In one possible sign that Russia is preparing to dig in, the Moscow-installed authorities in Kherson last week announced the formation of a territorial defence unit, urging local men to join up to defend the city.
But even Russian soldiers quickly conceded that few local residents in Kherson would be willing to take up arms against their own country. “A territorial defence unit in Kherson is a dangerous decision,” said a Russian soldier who blogs under the name “Thirteen”.
“Instead of creating a territorial defence unit, we might be just arming the enemy.”
A thread (nitter) from Economist reporter Shashank Joshi:
posted by BungaDunga at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Western official expresses confidence that Russian planning to withdraw from Kherson is "well advanced. A large portion of the civilian population has now moved east and Russia has highly likely prioritised a temporary bolstering of force in the area to cover the retreat."And more in there about Russia running out of munitions(!).
Western official: "it's likely that most echelons of command have now withdrawn across the river, leaving demoralised and leaderless men to face Ukrainian assaults." Calls it "terrible leadership". Adds that Russian defensive lines on Dnieper right bank being built up.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Seeing lots of chatter on Twitter this morning about the Russians abandoning Kherson.
Russians have taken down their flag from a large Kherson administration building and some of their security checkpoints are not crewed.
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:30 AM on November 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russians have taken down their flag from a large Kherson administration building and some of their security checkpoints are not crewed.
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:30 AM on November 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
One strange rhetorical shift Russia has been making lately is accusing NATO countries of already being in Ukraine and participating in the war. It seems very strange to me that they make this accusation and then do not act on any of the threats they have made about how they will retaliate in the event of NATO involvement. It's making them look even more impotent.
Unless they are planning to attack some more infrastructure in NATO countries like they did with the pipelines.
posted by srboisvert at 2:18 PM on November 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
Unless they are planning to attack some more infrastructure in NATO countries like they did with the pipelines.
posted by srboisvert at 2:18 PM on November 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
It seems very strange to me that they make this accusation and then do not act on any of the threats they have made about how they will retaliate in the event of NATO involvement. It's making them look even more impotent.
It also limits their ability to retaliate or respond if NATO forces do get directly involved future, because according to them that wouldn't be any change from how things are now.
posted by aubilenon at 9:34 PM on November 3, 2022
It also limits their ability to retaliate or respond if NATO forces do get directly involved future, because according to them that wouldn't be any change from how things are now.
posted by aubilenon at 9:34 PM on November 3, 2022
In one of the odder developments in this war, the Wagner Group has gone from being deniable and not legal under Russian law to opening a grand HQ in a glass-and-steel building in St. Petersburg. They are technically still illegal, though...
It's only been around six weeks since Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to founding and running the company. Since then he's been a lot more visible in the media, and he's apparently moving in on other movers and shakers in the Kremlin. Apparently the new building is also meant to some sort of tech incubator space for Russian defence industry, which I guess they could really need under the current circumstances.
posted by Harald74 at 6:59 AM on November 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's only been around six weeks since Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to founding and running the company. Since then he's been a lot more visible in the media, and he's apparently moving in on other movers and shakers in the Kremlin. Apparently the new building is also meant to some sort of tech incubator space for Russian defence industry, which I guess they could really need under the current circumstances.
posted by Harald74 at 6:59 AM on November 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
There apparently is a feud between Kadyrov, Prigozhin and whoever is in charge of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine at the moment (up to recently it was Lapin, now he's out).
posted by Harald74 at 7:03 AM on November 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 7:03 AM on November 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
The UK MoD claims it's probably that Russia has deployed "barrier troops" behind their front line units.
(1/4) Due to low morale and reluctance to fight, Russian forces have probably started deploying “barrier troops” or “blocking units”.
(2/4) These units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been used in previous conflicts by Russian forces.
(3/4) Recently, Russian generals likely wanted their commanders to use weapons against deserters, including possibly authorising shooting to kill such defaulters after a warning had been given. Generals also likely wanted to maintain defensive positions to the death.
(4/4) The tactic of shooting deserters likely attests to the low quality, low morale and indiscipline of Russian forces.
posted by Harald74 at 7:14 AM on November 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
(1/4) Due to low morale and reluctance to fight, Russian forces have probably started deploying “barrier troops” or “blocking units”.
(2/4) These units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been used in previous conflicts by Russian forces.
(3/4) Recently, Russian generals likely wanted their commanders to use weapons against deserters, including possibly authorising shooting to kill such defaulters after a warning had been given. Generals also likely wanted to maintain defensive positions to the death.
(4/4) The tactic of shooting deserters likely attests to the low quality, low morale and indiscipline of Russian forces.
posted by Harald74 at 7:14 AM on November 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Some of the translated calls describe multiple lines of blockers -- the frontmost line being convicts and various other less-wanted citizens which if shot saves the state the cost of their imprisonment or furthers other internal goals, and if surrendering bogs UA units down and imposes costs on Ukraine to manage; then the fresh conscripts (deployed under the guise of annexation) and the hapless mobniks and what's left of the breakaway militias; then whatever passes for more regular Russian forces.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 AM on November 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 AM on November 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
How Ukrainians Are Protecting Their Centuries-Old Culture From Putin’s Invasion [Bloomberg CityLab]
“It’s not only a question of killing as many Ukrainians as possible,” said Emily Channell-Justice, anthropologist and director of the Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program at Harvard University. “It’s about destroying a record of Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian language.”
posted by Kabanos at 10:58 AM on November 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
“It’s not only a question of killing as many Ukrainians as possible,” said Emily Channell-Justice, anthropologist and director of the Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program at Harvard University. “It’s about destroying a record of Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian language.”
posted by Kabanos at 10:58 AM on November 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
From the Daily Beast: Russia announced Wednesday that it views Norway’s work with other countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as provocative, warning that Norway’s efforts to bolster its military in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year will likely be the death knell for Oslo-Moscow relations moving forward.
“Oslo is now among the most active supporters of NATO's involvement in the Arctic,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, according to TASS. “We consider such developments near Russian borders as Oslo's deliberate pursuit of a destructive course toward escalation of tensions in the Euro-Arctic region and the final destruction of Russian-Norwegian relations.”
From SVT, Sweden's national news source (machine translation from original): After the recent drone alert in Norway, the Home Guard is now monitoring the critical oil and gas facilities along the North Sea coast. It is the first time in modern times that the Home Guard has been called in for a sharp mission. The soldiers are, among other things, on site at the giant refinery in Mongstad north of Bergen.
"This says something about how serious the situation in Europe is right now," says Christoffer Thomas Knutsen, head of the Home Guard in the Norwegian Westland. Norway is currently the largest supplier of gas to Europe. At the same time, there have been numerous reports of drone flights at the oil and gas facilities out at sea and along the coast. According to the police, it is about a "significant number of observations over several months", but exactly how many are secret.
The refinery in Mongstad is Norway's only one, and among those who now keep watch there is optician Paal Nävdal. "You see the seriousness behind it and make the necessary effort," he says.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:01 PM on November 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
“Oslo is now among the most active supporters of NATO's involvement in the Arctic,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, according to TASS. “We consider such developments near Russian borders as Oslo's deliberate pursuit of a destructive course toward escalation of tensions in the Euro-Arctic region and the final destruction of Russian-Norwegian relations.”
From SVT, Sweden's national news source (machine translation from original): After the recent drone alert in Norway, the Home Guard is now monitoring the critical oil and gas facilities along the North Sea coast. It is the first time in modern times that the Home Guard has been called in for a sharp mission. The soldiers are, among other things, on site at the giant refinery in Mongstad north of Bergen.
"This says something about how serious the situation in Europe is right now," says Christoffer Thomas Knutsen, head of the Home Guard in the Norwegian Westland. Norway is currently the largest supplier of gas to Europe. At the same time, there have been numerous reports of drone flights at the oil and gas facilities out at sea and along the coast. According to the police, it is about a "significant number of observations over several months", but exactly how many are secret.
The refinery in Mongstad is Norway's only one, and among those who now keep watch there is optician Paal Nävdal. "You see the seriousness behind it and make the necessary effort," he says.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:01 PM on November 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
In one of the odder developments in this war, the Wagner Group has gone from being deniable and not legal under Russian law to opening a grand HQ in a glass-and-steel building in St. Petersburg.
Never in a million years would I have believed those photos are not from a dystopian sci-fi film set. But it's 2022, so.. sure why not. Medieval knight on the tv. Fur coat clubbing woman. Guy with the big beard wearing a very gray future suit. Some military-ish folks in random camouflage. Everyone's gathering around the modern finance building lobby area, waiting fascistly.
posted by UN at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Never in a million years would I have believed those photos are not from a dystopian sci-fi film set. But it's 2022, so.. sure why not. Medieval knight on the tv. Fur coat clubbing woman. Guy with the big beard wearing a very gray future suit. Some military-ish folks in random camouflage. Everyone's gathering around the modern finance building lobby area, waiting fascistly.
posted by UN at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
(It's a Gibson war. That is, a war as conceived by William Gibson - the boundaries are fluid or at least ill-defined between governments and contractors and who how where is profiting... and in the very real present, people are paying with their lives.
(I sincerely hope Ukraine comes out of this, after the rebuilding period, far stronger than anyone has any right to expect.))
posted by From Bklyn at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
(I sincerely hope Ukraine comes out of this, after the rebuilding period, far stronger than anyone has any right to expect.))
posted by From Bklyn at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
In one of the odder developments in this war, the Wagner Group has gone from being deniable and not legal under Russian law to opening a grand HQ in a glass-and-steel building in St. Petersburg. They are technically still illegal, though...
People wholive work in glass houses offices shouldn't throw stones handgrenades.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:32 AM on November 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
People who
posted by Stoneshop at 4:32 AM on November 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
My take on the 'were really fighting NATO' is that it's a partially true face saving claim to explain the Russian defeats.
Now, Russia always lies. That's a given. But Ukraine is getting a lot of supplies, arms, training and behind the scenes help from NATO countries. (They deserve all of it and more. I'm fully in the no giving Russia captured territory side ) And a Russian strategy would be to send in troops without identifying marks to bolster their own side in a conflict. Do I believe that NATO troops are participating directly in the war? No, not really. But there is a point where you look at the aid being given and asterisk out the nuance of the billions of dollars in weapons and aid a country is getting. So that part is a fraction true, a lot of propaganda and even more projection.
And.... Russia is pretty much all in on the war. Not in a fully declared, actual war kinda way, but you don't mobilize like that and send all your equipment to a half effort. It's a shitty, disorganized and horridly wasteful and rife with war crimes, but the giant Russian army is pretty much entirely in Ukraine at this point. And they are, frankly, losing. Anything that's possible to achieve at this point is an Utterly Pyrrhic victory at absolute best. With the more accurate answer being that Russia is devastating two countries for absolutely nothing besides Putin ego.
So, tldr, a tiny fraction of nuanced truth to hold the core of a giant Matryoshka lies in perfect classic Russian style. It's not exactly actionable or a true statement of intent. More like.... Bullies claiming that they didn't lose because David cheated.
posted by Jacen at 1:30 PM on November 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Now, Russia always lies. That's a given. But Ukraine is getting a lot of supplies, arms, training and behind the scenes help from NATO countries. (They deserve all of it and more. I'm fully in the no giving Russia captured territory side ) And a Russian strategy would be to send in troops without identifying marks to bolster their own side in a conflict. Do I believe that NATO troops are participating directly in the war? No, not really. But there is a point where you look at the aid being given and asterisk out the nuance of the billions of dollars in weapons and aid a country is getting. So that part is a fraction true, a lot of propaganda and even more projection.
And.... Russia is pretty much all in on the war. Not in a fully declared, actual war kinda way, but you don't mobilize like that and send all your equipment to a half effort. It's a shitty, disorganized and horridly wasteful and rife with war crimes, but the giant Russian army is pretty much entirely in Ukraine at this point. And they are, frankly, losing. Anything that's possible to achieve at this point is an Utterly Pyrrhic victory at absolute best. With the more accurate answer being that Russia is devastating two countries for absolutely nothing besides Putin ego.
So, tldr, a tiny fraction of nuanced truth to hold the core of a giant Matryoshka lies in perfect classic Russian style. It's not exactly actionable or a true statement of intent. More like.... Bullies claiming that they didn't lose because David cheated.
posted by Jacen at 1:30 PM on November 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Today I was curious about Ukraine's military budget. They are fighting Russia to a standstill with an annual military budget just 1/636th of the US police and jail budget. If you count the US military aid (about 15 billion in mostly phased out equipment) it is still just 1/170th. Both the numerators and denominators are crazy!
posted by srboisvert at 4:01 PM on November 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 4:01 PM on November 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
Russian warships stuck in the Mediterranean have given up after nine months and are sailing to Russia's Asian ports.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:57 AM on November 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:57 AM on November 7, 2022 [7 favorites]
Musk's latest shenanigans over at Twitter adds an extra layer of noise and uncertainty. Some people report credible sources on the Ukraine war being drowned out by it, but personally I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary.
posted by Harald74 at 4:24 AM on November 7, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 4:24 AM on November 7, 2022
I claim sanctuary: sailing to Russia's Asian ports.
Appears they're not too keen on passing through Denmark's territorial waters to get to St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad. Or around Norway to get to Murmansk.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:50 AM on November 7, 2022
Appears they're not too keen on passing through Denmark's territorial waters to get to St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad. Or around Norway to get to Murmansk.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:50 AM on November 7, 2022
Lithuania denies transit for five Russian military railcars.
Empty? Still нет, отказано.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:58 AM on November 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Empty? Still нет, отказано.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:58 AM on November 7, 2022 [6 favorites]
Russian warships stuck in the Mediterranean have given up after nine months and are sailing to Russia's Asian ports.
It's more likely that they need to restock, refuel and rotate crews than that they have given up. Most subs only do three month rotations. Food is a big limitation, so is fuel but there is also maintenance. The US navy has massive resupply setups all over the world. Remember the Fat Leonard Scandal? That was about the billions spent on resupply for US carrier groups in Southeast Asia. I don't know what kind of arrangements the Russians have but I suspect they are much more limited since the collapse of the USSR.
posted by srboisvert at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2022
It's more likely that they need to restock, refuel and rotate crews than that they have given up. Most subs only do three month rotations. Food is a big limitation, so is fuel but there is also maintenance. The US navy has massive resupply setups all over the world. Remember the Fat Leonard Scandal? That was about the billions spent on resupply for US carrier groups in Southeast Asia. I don't know what kind of arrangements the Russians have but I suspect they are much more limited since the collapse of the USSR.
posted by srboisvert at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2022
I'm sure they could find someone around the Med to sell them food and fuel, but yeah, depot-level maintenance is a thing you can only put off for so long. And sailor morale only lasts so long. US carrier group deployments have been running in the 9-month range, and it's rough on the ship's material condition and sailors and families. And they get periodic port calls to take a break, make some phone calls, fix a few minor things, etc.
posted by ctmf at 11:47 AM on November 7, 2022
posted by ctmf at 11:47 AM on November 7, 2022
This is why the Russian Navy is considered a class 3 navy: "power projection to regions adjacent to its own". Class 1 Navy = "multiple and sustained power projection missions globally". The "sustained" part can be important.
posted by ctmf at 11:53 AM on November 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 11:53 AM on November 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wonder if Tehran said no.
If nothing else it's an admission that the conflict won't be over soon enough for them to wait around to transit and refit in Sevastopol.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:10 PM on November 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
If nothing else it's an admission that the conflict won't be over soon enough for them to wait around to transit and refit in Sevastopol.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:10 PM on November 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia has a navy base in Syria it can use to restock and prepare for the trip back to Vladivostok.
posted by interogative mood at 12:37 PM on November 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 12:37 PM on November 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
There may well be stuff that they need to fix or upgrade that they prefer not to do in any foreign port, however friendly.
And if they were near Singapore a few days ago they'd have left the Med at least two weeks before, add one more week if they didn't use the Suez canal.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:10 AM on November 8, 2022
And if they were near Singapore a few days ago they'd have left the Med at least two weeks before, add one more week if they didn't use the Suez canal.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:10 AM on November 8, 2022
The Russian Ministry of Defense has for the first time formally denied information about Russian losses coming from inside Russia. This includes the letter of the 155th marines brigade complaining of losses of 50% equipment and 300 people in one battle in Donetsk (published by bloggers connected to the Wagner group) and independent media reporting that a battalion of 570 freshly mobilised people was practically wiped out with 41 survivors. In the former case the government has produced a film of masked marines denying the defeat, reminiscent of the sailor footage after the sinking of the Moskva. Even if the letter was exaggerated, it seems the inside conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin is heating up.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:03 AM on November 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:03 AM on November 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Translation of a January 2022 Novaya Gazeta article about smuggling and corruption around the militarized 'grayzone'. A Dead Man's Donbass.
Part of the unit that wore these chevrons served the interests of Akhmetov, protecting his enterprises from marauders from the Ukrainian side of the conditional border.posted by kmt at 8:01 AM on November 8, 2022
Rinat Akhmetov, the owner of this Ukrainian business empire of steel and coal, played patriotism with both flags and tried at all costs to maintain control over the entire metallurgical vertical of power - from the extraction of coking coal to the main transport hub, the Mariupol port, which remained within the boundaries of Ukrainian-controlled land in those October 2014 days, when the map of the future enclaves of the Kremlin's satellites was still only being set in paper.
The difference with the pre-war situation for this oligarch was, in particular, that now he got involved in a curious business model. In order to match the spirit of the times and not fall out of fashion in a new, hybrid war, instead of traditional security services
he began to sponsor paramilitary groups on both sides of the front, mimicking popular ideologies there and playing on the strings of patriotism both in Ukraine and in the territory that received the name "DPR".
Also, in related unintended consequences, via Bloomberg: Europe’s Energy Crunch Will Trigger Years of Shortages and Blackouts
Bills will be high, but Europe will survive the winter: It’s bought enough oil and gas to get through the heating seasons.And this is because:
Much deeper costs will be borne by the world’s poorest countries, which have been shut out of the natural gas market by Europe’s suddenly ravenous demand. It’s left emerging market countries unable to meet today’s needs or tomorrow’s, and the most likely consequences — factory shutdowns, more frequent and longer-lasting power shortages, the foment of social unrest — could stretch into the next decade.
The center of the issue is Europe’s response to tightening fuel supplies and the war in Ukraine. Cut off from Russian gas, European countries have turned to the spot market, where energy that isn’t committed to buyers is made available for short-notice delivery. With prices soaring, some suppliers to South Asia have simply canceled long-scheduled deliveries in favor of better yields elsewhere, traders say.posted by kmt at 8:36 AM on November 8, 2022 [9 favorites]
“Suppliers don’t need to focus on securing their LNG to low affordability markets,” Raghav Mathur, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said. The higher prices they can get on the spot market more than make up for whatever penalties they might pay for shirking planned shipments. And that dynamic is likely to hold for years, Mathur says.
The energy talk is drowning out the agricultural feedstock issues (fertilizer) which is also going to disproportionately impact poorer countries when the supply shocks hit.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:13 AM on November 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:13 AM on November 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia installs ‘dragon’s teeth’ barriers to slow advance of Ukrainian forces
The Siegfried-Linie, one of Germany's WW2 defence lines just inside its western border, is still visible in places, with the teeth anchored on a thick underground concrete slab. But these are just concrete pyramids placed on top of the ground as you can see in this video around 0:19. A common way to defeat those German teeth was to bring forward armoured bulldozers and cover them with soil; these can probably be shifted aside. Of course after neutralising enemy fire, but where dragon's teeth in conjunction with other defensive tech and, if present, natural barriers are meant to redirect the attacking force into positions where they are more easily engaged, defeating such barriers at less defended points is what the attacker will be aiming for.
Retired Aussie General Mick Ryan, regularly quoted around here, considers these efforts as being for a significant part for domestic use, trying to offset the numerous messages of chaos, failure and defeat.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:18 PM on November 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia is stepping up its efforts to build substantial obstacle barriers to slow the advance of Ukrainian forces in key locations it is defending, including around the devastated city of Mariupol, the UK Ministry of Defence has said.Trenches are WW1, and dragon's teeth are WW2 defensive tech. Sure, they'll probably slow down an Ukrainian attack, but building such a line around Mariupol, currently 70 to 80km behind the nearest part of the front, show a remarkable lack of confidence, or maybe a sudden influx of reality, regarding their defensive capabilities.
The Siegfried-Linie, one of Germany's WW2 defence lines just inside its western border, is still visible in places, with the teeth anchored on a thick underground concrete slab. But these are just concrete pyramids placed on top of the ground as you can see in this video around 0:19. A common way to defeat those German teeth was to bring forward armoured bulldozers and cover them with soil; these can probably be shifted aside. Of course after neutralising enemy fire, but where dragon's teeth in conjunction with other defensive tech and, if present, natural barriers are meant to redirect the attacking force into positions where they are more easily engaged, defeating such barriers at less defended points is what the attacker will be aiming for.
Retired Aussie General Mick Ryan, regularly quoted around here, considers these efforts as being for a significant part for domestic use, trying to offset the numerous messages of chaos, failure and defeat.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:18 PM on November 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
A couple YT's on the 'Wagner Line:'
(TL;DR it's a shitty version of the thing it's supposed to be; but will still delay advance and inflate Ukrainian losses at least a bit if they have to attack it)
Military & History: Wagner-Line: How useful is Russia's Defensive construction?
Engineer Reacts: Can Ukraine Break Through Wagner Group Anti Tank Line?
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:38 PM on November 8, 2022
(TL;DR it's a shitty version of the thing it's supposed to be; but will still delay advance and inflate Ukrainian losses at least a bit if they have to attack it)
Military & History: Wagner-Line: How useful is Russia's Defensive construction?
Engineer Reacts: Can Ukraine Break Through Wagner Group Anti Tank Line?
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:38 PM on November 8, 2022
I guess if you are running out of guns to fight with, concrete blocks are second best
posted by Jacen at 8:49 PM on November 8, 2022
posted by Jacen at 8:49 PM on November 8, 2022
One of the videos linked above makes the point that while the concrete blocks look impressive in photos, they actually run only a relatively short distance and presumably could be outflanked with some ease, over and above the options for going through that section of line.
Twitter seems to be full of rumors of impending retreats from Kherson again, but without any certainty.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:28 AM on November 9, 2022
Twitter seems to be full of rumors of impending retreats from Kherson again, but without any certainty.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:28 AM on November 9, 2022
Retreats from Kherson are getting some coverage now. Sounds like they're leaving the entire western bank of the Dnipro.
posted by echo target at 7:37 AM on November 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by echo target at 7:37 AM on November 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's official: Russian troops ordered to leave Kherson.
posted by UN at 10:20 AM on November 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 10:20 AM on November 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
So many questions about this. Are the Russians really retreating without a fight? Will they attempt to level Kherson with artillery from the left bank? Will the Ukrainians be able to effectively move up and start pounding Russian positions on the left bank, drive them back, and eventually cross? Or will it be a medium term stalemate? If so, will the Ukrainians perhaps try to liberate the left bank and southern Ukraine from the East, grabbing Tokmak and Melitopol? (And it would be nice if they could take Enerhodar and take back the Zaphorizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant for good).
I suppose time will tell. I hope now that the US elections are over we can increase our aid to the Ukrainians so they can make faster progress in driving the Russians from all of Ukraine.
posted by Reverend John at 10:48 AM on November 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
I suppose time will tell. I hope now that the US elections are over we can increase our aid to the Ukrainians so they can make faster progress in driving the Russians from all of Ukraine.
posted by Reverend John at 10:48 AM on November 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
So much for "staying in Kherson forever", but, well, that was last month's statement.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:09 AM on November 9, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 11:09 AM on November 9, 2022
Unless there is some kind of extra-sneaky subterfuge going on, this looks like a genuine setback for the Russians that is hard to spin as anything other than a defeat.
I won't link to them here, but there has been a big upsurge in "drone dropping grenade on Russian soldiers" videos in the last week or so, and most of them are just plain brutal. It must be incredibly stressful and demoralizing to be on the receiving end of that (plus the precision artillery, HIMARS, etc.).
posted by Dip Flash at 1:44 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I won't link to them here, but there has been a big upsurge in "drone dropping grenade on Russian soldiers" videos in the last week or so, and most of them are just plain brutal. It must be incredibly stressful and demoralizing to be on the receiving end of that (plus the precision artillery, HIMARS, etc.).
posted by Dip Flash at 1:44 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
People here were predicting that would happen as things get cold and soldiers hunker down in the trenches and make drone-visible fires to cook food and stay warm. I'm wondering if that explains the upsurge in those videos?
posted by UN at 2:14 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 2:14 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
The retreat from Kherson is a major defeat. Russia is going to have to abandon equipment and those 40,000 soldiers they have to evacuate are going to need significant time to be combat effective again. Meanwhile Ukraine has a lot of choices in terms of how to potentially shift forces and plan their winter campaign.
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 PM on November 9, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 PM on November 9, 2022
I'm wondering if that explains the upsurge in those videos?
Probably that is a factor, but also the Ukrainians seem to be very strategic about what types of videos they are releasing at a given time. There was a while where they were mostly releasing HIMARS strike videos, or the periods when they release mostly anti-tank missile strike.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:55 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Probably that is a factor, but also the Ukrainians seem to be very strategic about what types of videos they are releasing at a given time. There was a while where they were mostly releasing HIMARS strike videos, or the periods when they release mostly anti-tank missile strike.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:55 PM on November 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yeah, ISW and some Twitter people have been talking about the Kherson retreat for about a week. My read on the situation is that anything deliberately left behind will be some sort of rear guard, sacrifice of expendable troops, or typically Russian fuckups.
I think the most immediate strategic consideration is how much this will threaten Crimea. Plus what Russia loses in the withdrawal. Ukraine definitely did a good job here, again.
posted by Jacen at 11:25 PM on November 9, 2022
I think the most immediate strategic consideration is how much this will threaten Crimea. Plus what Russia loses in the withdrawal. Ukraine definitely did a good job here, again.
posted by Jacen at 11:25 PM on November 9, 2022
Dip Flash: It must be incredibly stressful and demoralizing to be on the receiving end of that (plus the precision artillery, HIMARS, etc.).
Not just for them but for the folks at home as well, especially those about to get mobilized or called up for their regular army service. "I'm going to die like that, in the rubble of an insignificant hamlet shelled to pieces already?"
posted by Stoneshop at 12:47 AM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not just for them but for the folks at home as well, especially those about to get mobilized or called up for their regular army service. "I'm going to die like that, in the rubble of an insignificant hamlet shelled to pieces already?"
posted by Stoneshop at 12:47 AM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm reminded of a historian's take on the aftermath of the siege of Vicksburg during the American civil war. This was one of the few times that Grant gave the defeated Confederates terms and a parole instead of demanding unconditional surrender. The thousands of Confederate soldiers were given a parole to return to their homes instead of taken as POWS. They surrendered riffles, slaves, and cannons and marched back to their homes throughout the south. The sight of all those men on the edge of starvation, suffering from the aftermath of horrific shelling and misery, looking utterly defeated made a serious dent in the confederate morale.
posted by interogative mood at 8:29 AM on November 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:29 AM on November 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
The sight of all those men
Ivan quick come & see, there go Volva and Dmitri...
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:54 AM on November 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ivan quick come & see, there go Volva and Dmitri...
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:54 AM on November 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Someone gave this soviet joke on twitter:
Three cell mates chat in the prison on why they end up in Jail.
The 1st person: "I am in jail because I support Nikolai Bukharin."
The 2nd: "I am in jail because I am against Nikolai Bukharin."
The last person: "I am Nikolai Bukharin."
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 9:56 AM on November 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
Three cell mates chat in the prison on why they end up in Jail.
The 1st person: "I am in jail because I support Nikolai Bukharin."
The 2nd: "I am in jail because I am against Nikolai Bukharin."
The last person: "I am Nikolai Bukharin."
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 9:56 AM on November 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm sure there's a Soviet-era joke which covers this catch-22.
In the replies to the tweet you linked to:
In the replies to the tweet you linked to:
There is a Soviet joke:posted by Kabanos at 9:58 AM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Three cell mates chat in the prison on why they end up in Jail.
The 1st person: "I am in jail because I support
Nikolai Bukharin."
The 2nd: "I am in jail because I am against
Nikolai Bukharin."
The last person: "I am Nikolai Bukharin."
Prisoners on march to he transit camp, the guard alongside on horseback asks the guy "What did they give you?"
"Twenty-five years."
"What did you do?"
"Absolutely nothing, I swear!"
"Don't lie to me, for nothing they only give ten."
posted by Meatbomb at 12:54 PM on November 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
"Twenty-five years."
"What did you do?"
"Absolutely nothing, I swear!"
"Don't lie to me, for nothing they only give ten."
posted by Meatbomb at 12:54 PM on November 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
It might violate the Geneva conventions, but with reportedly up to 20,000 Russians on the wrong side of the river being shelled relentlessly, no pontoons, trying to cross in a frenzy with motor boats while Ukrainian forces enter Kherson, if the Kakhovka dam were to blow right now, due to some kind of mysterious covert action, it’d be absolutely devastating to the invaders. Perhaps the end.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:44 PM on November 10, 2022
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:44 PM on November 10, 2022
It would drown Kherson and the settlements upstream, and threaten ZPP's cooling . The western/right bank is the vulnerable side. It's not an option for the country and citizenship's defenders. This isn't an RTS, they are there to reclaim the city, not sacrifice it. WTAF.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on November 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on November 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I had read that the blowing of the dam would spare Kherson city as the city is on higher ground, but flood the three new defence lines the Russians are building on the east bank.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:16 PM on November 10, 2022
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:16 PM on November 10, 2022
Like snuffleupagus said, it would threaten the cooling of the nuclear plant. In Zelenski's address the other night, he warned Moscow about that specifically.
posted by brachiopod at 4:42 PM on November 10, 2022
posted by brachiopod at 4:42 PM on November 10, 2022
animation based on floodplain maps (pardon the dramatic soundtrack, you may want to mute if on a bus or train)
Maybe it would take out the fortifications on Eastern bank, but also the city core.
Ukrainians will not do that. What makes sense for them is to recapture control and cut off the canal to Crimea. Which is within the restraints they promised to adhere to a while ago.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:24 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Maybe it would take out the fortifications on Eastern bank, but also the city core.
Ukrainians will not do that. What makes sense for them is to recapture control and cut off the canal to Crimea. Which is within the restraints they promised to adhere to a while ago.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:24 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Alright, I’ll stop fantasizing about this particularly ethically-problematic morally outrageous, titillating, biblically decisive game changing trump card scenario. I just really hope the Russians don’t end up blowing it anyways.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 5:27 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 5:27 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I just really hope the Russians don’t end up blowing it anyways.
Given the Russians' record so far of doing the thing that is most evil and counterproductive I would not take it out of the realm of the possible yet.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:55 PM on November 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Given the Russians' record so far of doing the thing that is most evil and counterproductive I would not take it out of the realm of the possible yet.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:55 PM on November 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
There is also the chance that they do it by accident.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:31 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by From Bklyn at 11:31 PM on November 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Footage coming in of local survivors welcoming the Ukrainian advance in the Kherson region. (I love that it includes an overexcited dog and a cat, hitting all the marks.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:07 AM on November 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:07 AM on November 11, 2022 [11 favorites]
People here were predicting that would happen as things get cold and soldiers hunker down in the trenches and make drone-visible fires to cook food and stay warm. I'm wondering if that explains the upsurge in those videos?
This is an issue for both sides in the war now. With the loss of leaf cover and vehicles tracks showing up nice and clearly in light snowfall there is no chance of hiding artillery or vehicles in the wooded hedgerows and forest like they have for the entire summer.
Ukraine seems to be dealing with it mostly by moving forward but I suspect we are getting a skewed view due to low circulation of russian mil videos in the west. One interesting change I'm seeing is that the landscapes in the videos don't appear to be the cratered moonscapes like they were in the summer. Positions seem less entrenched and contested now and they are not walking artillery strikes gradually in.
posted by srboisvert at 3:52 AM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is an issue for both sides in the war now. With the loss of leaf cover and vehicles tracks showing up nice and clearly in light snowfall there is no chance of hiding artillery or vehicles in the wooded hedgerows and forest like they have for the entire summer.
Ukraine seems to be dealing with it mostly by moving forward but I suspect we are getting a skewed view due to low circulation of russian mil videos in the west. One interesting change I'm seeing is that the landscapes in the videos don't appear to be the cratered moonscapes like they were in the summer. Positions seem less entrenched and contested now and they are not walking artillery strikes gradually in.
posted by srboisvert at 3:52 AM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Antonivsky Bridge out of Kherson has been downgraded to a pier.
posted by kaibutsu at 9:00 AM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by kaibutsu at 9:00 AM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
All the national colours stuff seems to be football gear - you'll totally get giant flags like that at the stadium when the national team plays. I saw people in national team scarves in today's videos out of Kherson too. Poland co ran the Euro championship with Ukraine a decade ago and I know my neighbours are hanging out the flags with that logo on today's Independence Day, polyester holds up well.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:33 AM on November 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:33 AM on November 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
Football fandom is a good explanation, but I still prefer the head canon of someone carefully stitching and dying a giant flag to pass the time during the occupation.
posted by kaibutsu at 1:41 PM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by kaibutsu at 1:41 PM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
It would also be fine if the liberating forces had brought it with them! (But the whole Mdm. Deflag thing would be cute.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:02 PM on November 11, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:02 PM on November 11, 2022
That flag has been in Kherson throughout the occupation. See this clip of chanting marchers in a thread compiling non-violent resistance across southern Ukraine in March or this longer clip of defiance in the face of the oppressor. Kherson is Ukraine, then as now as always.
posted by backwoods at 2:31 PM on November 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by backwoods at 2:31 PM on November 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
It's been a positive week but it's far from over.
Voices from the trenches: Ukrainian soldiers near Kherson share what they feel and fear:
“Want some pea soup?” Volodymyr asks in the makeshift underground trench kitchen. He doesn't take no for an answer, pouring a bowl, cutting off a hunk of bread and pouring a plastic cup full of apple and grape juice.
The space around the small table is packed with shelves, kitchen supplies, military equipment, a stove and a refrigerator. What open wall space remains is covered in drawings contributed by the children of Zhytomyr Oblast, 400 kilometers up north.
The soup is incredible. Volodymyr looks pleased to hear it. But when asked for the recipe, he looks just as pleased to refuse to give it.
As the subject returns to the war, his smile fades and his expression changes. He sinks into thought.
“When you have to bury one of the boys, someone you saw alive just a few days ago, that’s the scariest.”
“Not being wounded. Not being killed, because you wouldn’t know what’s going on,” he continues. “But when you have to bury a friend, that’s the scariest.”
On a happier note: Ukrainian soldiers are ambushed by Special Kherson Hugging Forces
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:05 PM on November 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
Voices from the trenches: Ukrainian soldiers near Kherson share what they feel and fear:
“Want some pea soup?” Volodymyr asks in the makeshift underground trench kitchen. He doesn't take no for an answer, pouring a bowl, cutting off a hunk of bread and pouring a plastic cup full of apple and grape juice.
The space around the small table is packed with shelves, kitchen supplies, military equipment, a stove and a refrigerator. What open wall space remains is covered in drawings contributed by the children of Zhytomyr Oblast, 400 kilometers up north.
The soup is incredible. Volodymyr looks pleased to hear it. But when asked for the recipe, he looks just as pleased to refuse to give it.
As the subject returns to the war, his smile fades and his expression changes. He sinks into thought.
“When you have to bury one of the boys, someone you saw alive just a few days ago, that’s the scariest.”
“Not being wounded. Not being killed, because you wouldn’t know what’s going on,” he continues. “But when you have to bury a friend, that’s the scariest.”
On a happier note: Ukrainian soldiers are ambushed by Special Kherson Hugging Forces
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:05 PM on November 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
'Sniper Dubbed 'Ukrainian Joan Of Arc' Shares What Saved Her Life'
posted by clavdivs at 4:02 PM on November 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 4:02 PM on November 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
clavdivs that was amazing. Almost unbelievable, like serious propaganda. Gorgeous, unassuming redhead is star sniper of Ukrainian Army. I hope her husband stays safe.
posted by Glinn at 4:18 PM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Glinn at 4:18 PM on November 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Almost unbelievable, like serious propaganda
I'd probably bet on it but I'd like to believe. All I can get out of Google is she is/was a model, beauty queen, associated with a line of jewelry, then there was Ukrainian press reporting that she was a notorious sniper woman amongst men, then in September she announced online she is pregnant and cannot continue to fight.
I think the video of her on the front with makeup perfect and the ominous sound of a drone overhead is not very credible, but hey, she offered to help her country and she did and she's a patriot.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:28 PM on November 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'd probably bet on it but I'd like to believe. All I can get out of Google is she is/was a model, beauty queen, associated with a line of jewelry, then there was Ukrainian press reporting that she was a notorious sniper woman amongst men, then in September she announced online she is pregnant and cannot continue to fight.
I think the video of her on the front with makeup perfect and the ominous sound of a drone overhead is not very credible, but hey, she offered to help her country and she did and she's a patriot.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:28 PM on November 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
(And I mean it, that video with her hanging out with the drone noise is not credible. I think anybody who's been watching the content from this war has seen enough to know that the drones on both sides doing artillery spotting, let alone dropping mortars themselves (even lower, and catching people completely unaware), they are far enough away you will not hear them, you are very unlikely to be able to even see them. If you really did hear that - you would not be holding your camera you would be in the bottom of your foxhole under a tarp or running.)
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 1:35 AM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 1:35 AM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
What is this weird thing where we praise the Ukrainian Armed Forces' media savvy and then convene a comment tribunal over the authenticity of photo ops...
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:53 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:53 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Speaking of which, Vladimir Putin's Day Off
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:06 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:06 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
It makes me feel very smart to say that something is excellent propaganda that I, of course, immediately saw right through.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:15 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:15 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
(And I mean it, that video with her hanging out with the drone noise is not credible. I think anybody who's been watching the content from this war has seen enough to know that the drones on both sides doing artillery spotting, let alone dropping mortars themselves (even lower, and catching people completely unaware), they are far enough away you will not hear them, you are very unlikely to be able to even see them. If you really did hear that - you would not be holding your camera you would be in the bottom of your foxhole under a tarp or running.)
So while I agree that this part of the video might be staged or exaggerated, it's not the case that the drones are always unable to be heard. There are plenty of videos where people on the ground hear the drones and start running or shooting, and for example this NYT article which describes a drone operation where they are dropping grenades on vehicles mentions that:
This drone system, called Perun, one of dozens used by the Ukrainian military, swoops in at an altitude of about 500 feet, hovers directly over a target and releases its bombs.
The drones are audible from the ground but still effective, Lieutenant Serhiy said, as the Russian forces “don’t have much time” to shoot them down. It cannot be flown in all weather, and sometimes misses. “The technology is not perfect,” he said, “but it works when it works.”
As a side note, I was reading a history of the American war in Afghanistan recently and something that came up is that -- to the surprise of the Americans -- even very high-flying Predator drones were sometimes able to be heard in the quiet high mountain conditions, giving some targeted people time to hide.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:37 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
So while I agree that this part of the video might be staged or exaggerated, it's not the case that the drones are always unable to be heard. There are plenty of videos where people on the ground hear the drones and start running or shooting, and for example this NYT article which describes a drone operation where they are dropping grenades on vehicles mentions that:
This drone system, called Perun, one of dozens used by the Ukrainian military, swoops in at an altitude of about 500 feet, hovers directly over a target and releases its bombs.
The drones are audible from the ground but still effective, Lieutenant Serhiy said, as the Russian forces “don’t have much time” to shoot them down. It cannot be flown in all weather, and sometimes misses. “The technology is not perfect,” he said, “but it works when it works.”
As a side note, I was reading a history of the American war in Afghanistan recently and something that came up is that -- to the surprise of the Americans -- even very high-flying Predator drones were sometimes able to be heard in the quiet high mountain conditions, giving some targeted people time to hide.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:37 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
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posted by Bella Donna at 2:17 PM on October 12, 2022 [15 favorites]