One for Alternate History Fans - an Irish Weather Forecast Saved D-Day
October 19, 2022 6:35 PM Subscribe
This post was deleted for the following reason: Poster's Request -- loup
What a great story - had never heard that.
posted by rongorongo at 12:00 AM on October 20, 2022
posted by rongorongo at 12:00 AM on October 20, 2022
I must admit, I've become really fascinated with how the tale of events at Blacksod has morphed over time, as the memory of the participants has blurred and the event has receded into the past.
I looked into it a lot when I was writing up the full account of how the weather forecasting for D-Day. Which is legit fascinating as at times it involves practically an all-out war between:
- The UK Met Office (known as 'Dunstable' due to their location), with senior forecasters granted military rank by the RAF, under the Norwegian Sverre Petterssen
- The US Army forecasting service based out of Eisenhower's HQ in London (known us 'Widewing') under the loud and self-promoting Irving Krick
- The Admiralty.
The problems stemmed from the Petterssen and Krick having very different prediction methods, with the Met's being more data-based and (ultimately) the origin, post-war, of a lot of still-used weather methodology.
All of these had to be herded by Group Captain James Stagg, assisted by his American subordinate Lieutenant-Colonel Donald Yates, who Krick was constantly trying to manoeuvre into Stagg's job. Luckily for Stagg (and D-Day), Yates was a good guy and continually put the need to get D-Day right above his loyalty to Krick (who was technically his superior), and actively worked with Stagg even when it was very much against his personal instinct and arguably career prospects to do so.
Anyway: Blacksod.
So the article is kinda right. Which is what every story about Maureen and Ted seems to be now. Because we've hit the point where the little imperfections and liberties in their stories over the years have been written about enough that if you do surface research, you'll find multiple versions of those accounts all over the place. This adds enough of a veneer of authenticity that people assume it's the full truth. Because it's a lovely story (Genuinely. Especially as it's how they end up getting married) and no one wants to look too deeply and discover that all the various accounts really trace back to the same people - Ted and Maureen themselves, some considerable time after WW2.
Which is where, as a historian, your alarm bells start ringing. Because - as Doctor House used to say:
"Everybody lies."
Doesn't mean they were doing it deliberately. Just that human memory is fallible, and we have a tendency to mis-remember things over time, place ourselves at the centre of events, adapt our memories to prevailing themes and societal beliefs related to hindsight, and eventually forget that the little embellishments we added to a thing were just that until we start to remember things that way ourselves.
(This is a huge problem with WW1/WW2 soldier accounts taken +30 years after those wars but I digress).
So what does it mean here?
Well, from what I could establish from research back when I wrote my original piece - which included trying to look at primary sources for weather records, Stagg's notes, minutes and more and also the various different versions of Ted and Maureen's own accounts I could find over the years (biasing towards the earliest), this seemed to be how Blacksod was involved:
The British and Irish had a secret treaty allowing them access to Irish weather data. This included access to the Blacksod data, which was a critical part of the chain of weather reporting locations the Allies had in the run up to D-Day. Because it was the western-most land station.
The weather station at Blacksod was actually located at the lighthouse. Ted Sweeney was the lighthouse keeper and thus responsible for making the barometric readings. These he would then walk down to Maureen Flavin, who ran the post office where the only phone was. Maureen would then phone them in.
There is some confusion over whether Maureen ever took barometric readings. I never found enough evidence to balance it either way. Their early accounts say she didn't. Later ones that she took them when she was visiting Ted. This she may have been doing because after the war Maureen and Ted married, and they claimed the time they'd spent together working with the readings and reporting them had contributed to them meeting and their courtship. So maybe she was wandering up there a lot, took an interest and helped out. Entirely possible.
The other key parts in that chain were all destroyers, under incredibly capable destroyer captains, all stationed out in the Atlantic. Most notably HMS Hoste under Lieutenant Hoare. As a sidenote, somewhat amusingly, Hoare and the other commanders thought they were being punished with Atlantic duty "away from the action."
What they didn't realise was they were actually there because they were so highly regarded - because they had demonstrably been providing the most accurate weather reports throughout their service, on time, without being prompted. Which was critical to the forecasting, but the Admiralty couldn't risk tell them that!
Anyway on D-Day -3 (original target date) a massive fight erupts between Dunstable and Widewing over whether the weather will be bad for the original planned D-Day landing date. Widewing under Krick continue to insist that the weather will be clear. Dunstable, under Petterssen insist a massive storm is coming based off the destroyer data and Blacksod's readings. Stagg agrees.
“In all the charts for the last 40 or 50 years I had examined,” Stagg wrote later, “I could not recall one which at this time of year remotely resembled this chart in the number and intensity of depressions it displayed at one time.”
There's a lot of arguing behind the scenes, but Stagg tells Eisenhower he may have to push D-Day back. Eisenhower demands a definitive answer the next day.
Stagg knows that Widewing will go directly above him, and worries that Yates might finally turn on him, if he can't prove that the depression is coming, so he asks for a second set of readings, outside the standard cycle from both the Atlantic destroyers and from Blacksod via the Irish.
This was requested on the morning of D-Day -2 (original date). It is the unusual phone call to Blacksod to request this that Maureen receives and clearly remembered so distinctively, as normally the weather reports were something they just phoned in at a set time. They weren't explicitly requested. In her earliest accounts, she insisted this was an English voice. By later accounts it has become an official request directly from the British for a weather report.
That latter is definitely a false memory. The earlier one might be. It is highly unlikely (to me) that the British - who are being super-secret about D-Day to the point that the destroyer captains out in the Atlantic storms don't know what they're collecting data for - would be dropping open phone calls to a small lighthouse in Ireland politely asking for barometric readings.
What's more likely is the British passed the urgent request to the Irish, who then made it off Blacksod. But whatever. Maybe that person sounded English. I'll give Maureen the benefit of the doubt on the accent. It doesn't matter as long as we accept it wasn't actually a call from fecking Churchill or something.
Anyway, Maureen then goes out to Ted, who makes the reading (or perhaps gets her to do it) and she comes back with it and phones it in as requested. The destroyers in the Atlantic, meanwhile, are not just doing the same thing but also reporting that they are now in the middle of the storm that Stagg and Dunstable predicted.
There's a lot of arguing between the weather centres but, ultimately, the new data is enough - just - for Widewing to concede there might be a storm coming. Which means Stagg has consensus.
This means that when Stagg is summoned by Eisenhower to give a go/no-go on D-Day, Stagg can say:
"No go."
Eisenhower then makes the biggest call of his life and an example to leaders everywhere: He trusts the expert, Stagg, and delays.
That decision proves correct. Storms batter the beaches on the planned D-Day. Throughout that day, Stagg and the weather centres get more data from Blacksod and the destroyers and conclude, collectively, that there is a two day window in the storm that will allow the invasion to take place. After that, it closes and the chance is missed.
As storm winds and rain batter Eisenhower's seaside HQ, Stagg goes to him and tells the General that they have an unexpected opportunity coming, and they need to prepare to take it. I was able to build up this report of how that conversion went from various people's accounts of that fateful meeting:
posted by garius at 4:01 AM on October 20, 2022 [87 favorites]
I looked into it a lot when I was writing up the full account of how the weather forecasting for D-Day. Which is legit fascinating as at times it involves practically an all-out war between:
- The UK Met Office (known as 'Dunstable' due to their location), with senior forecasters granted military rank by the RAF, under the Norwegian Sverre Petterssen
- The US Army forecasting service based out of Eisenhower's HQ in London (known us 'Widewing') under the loud and self-promoting Irving Krick
- The Admiralty.
The problems stemmed from the Petterssen and Krick having very different prediction methods, with the Met's being more data-based and (ultimately) the origin, post-war, of a lot of still-used weather methodology.
All of these had to be herded by Group Captain James Stagg, assisted by his American subordinate Lieutenant-Colonel Donald Yates, who Krick was constantly trying to manoeuvre into Stagg's job. Luckily for Stagg (and D-Day), Yates was a good guy and continually put the need to get D-Day right above his loyalty to Krick (who was technically his superior), and actively worked with Stagg even when it was very much against his personal instinct and arguably career prospects to do so.
Anyway: Blacksod.
So the article is kinda right. Which is what every story about Maureen and Ted seems to be now. Because we've hit the point where the little imperfections and liberties in their stories over the years have been written about enough that if you do surface research, you'll find multiple versions of those accounts all over the place. This adds enough of a veneer of authenticity that people assume it's the full truth. Because it's a lovely story (Genuinely. Especially as it's how they end up getting married) and no one wants to look too deeply and discover that all the various accounts really trace back to the same people - Ted and Maureen themselves, some considerable time after WW2.
Which is where, as a historian, your alarm bells start ringing. Because - as Doctor House used to say:
"Everybody lies."
Doesn't mean they were doing it deliberately. Just that human memory is fallible, and we have a tendency to mis-remember things over time, place ourselves at the centre of events, adapt our memories to prevailing themes and societal beliefs related to hindsight, and eventually forget that the little embellishments we added to a thing were just that until we start to remember things that way ourselves.
(This is a huge problem with WW1/WW2 soldier accounts taken +30 years after those wars but I digress).
So what does it mean here?
Well, from what I could establish from research back when I wrote my original piece - which included trying to look at primary sources for weather records, Stagg's notes, minutes and more and also the various different versions of Ted and Maureen's own accounts I could find over the years (biasing towards the earliest), this seemed to be how Blacksod was involved:
The British and Irish had a secret treaty allowing them access to Irish weather data. This included access to the Blacksod data, which was a critical part of the chain of weather reporting locations the Allies had in the run up to D-Day. Because it was the western-most land station.
The weather station at Blacksod was actually located at the lighthouse. Ted Sweeney was the lighthouse keeper and thus responsible for making the barometric readings. These he would then walk down to Maureen Flavin, who ran the post office where the only phone was. Maureen would then phone them in.
There is some confusion over whether Maureen ever took barometric readings. I never found enough evidence to balance it either way. Their early accounts say she didn't. Later ones that she took them when she was visiting Ted. This she may have been doing because after the war Maureen and Ted married, and they claimed the time they'd spent together working with the readings and reporting them had contributed to them meeting and their courtship. So maybe she was wandering up there a lot, took an interest and helped out. Entirely possible.
The other key parts in that chain were all destroyers, under incredibly capable destroyer captains, all stationed out in the Atlantic. Most notably HMS Hoste under Lieutenant Hoare. As a sidenote, somewhat amusingly, Hoare and the other commanders thought they were being punished with Atlantic duty "away from the action."
What they didn't realise was they were actually there because they were so highly regarded - because they had demonstrably been providing the most accurate weather reports throughout their service, on time, without being prompted. Which was critical to the forecasting, but the Admiralty couldn't risk tell them that!
Anyway on D-Day -3 (original target date) a massive fight erupts between Dunstable and Widewing over whether the weather will be bad for the original planned D-Day landing date. Widewing under Krick continue to insist that the weather will be clear. Dunstable, under Petterssen insist a massive storm is coming based off the destroyer data and Blacksod's readings. Stagg agrees.
“In all the charts for the last 40 or 50 years I had examined,” Stagg wrote later, “I could not recall one which at this time of year remotely resembled this chart in the number and intensity of depressions it displayed at one time.”
There's a lot of arguing behind the scenes, but Stagg tells Eisenhower he may have to push D-Day back. Eisenhower demands a definitive answer the next day.
Stagg knows that Widewing will go directly above him, and worries that Yates might finally turn on him, if he can't prove that the depression is coming, so he asks for a second set of readings, outside the standard cycle from both the Atlantic destroyers and from Blacksod via the Irish.
This was requested on the morning of D-Day -2 (original date). It is the unusual phone call to Blacksod to request this that Maureen receives and clearly remembered so distinctively, as normally the weather reports were something they just phoned in at a set time. They weren't explicitly requested. In her earliest accounts, she insisted this was an English voice. By later accounts it has become an official request directly from the British for a weather report.
That latter is definitely a false memory. The earlier one might be. It is highly unlikely (to me) that the British - who are being super-secret about D-Day to the point that the destroyer captains out in the Atlantic storms don't know what they're collecting data for - would be dropping open phone calls to a small lighthouse in Ireland politely asking for barometric readings.
What's more likely is the British passed the urgent request to the Irish, who then made it off Blacksod. But whatever. Maybe that person sounded English. I'll give Maureen the benefit of the doubt on the accent. It doesn't matter as long as we accept it wasn't actually a call from fecking Churchill or something.
Anyway, Maureen then goes out to Ted, who makes the reading (or perhaps gets her to do it) and she comes back with it and phones it in as requested. The destroyers in the Atlantic, meanwhile, are not just doing the same thing but also reporting that they are now in the middle of the storm that Stagg and Dunstable predicted.
There's a lot of arguing between the weather centres but, ultimately, the new data is enough - just - for Widewing to concede there might be a storm coming. Which means Stagg has consensus.
This means that when Stagg is summoned by Eisenhower to give a go/no-go on D-Day, Stagg can say:
"No go."
Eisenhower then makes the biggest call of his life and an example to leaders everywhere: He trusts the expert, Stagg, and delays.
That decision proves correct. Storms batter the beaches on the planned D-Day. Throughout that day, Stagg and the weather centres get more data from Blacksod and the destroyers and conclude, collectively, that there is a two day window in the storm that will allow the invasion to take place. After that, it closes and the chance is missed.
As storm winds and rain batter Eisenhower's seaside HQ, Stagg goes to him and tells the General that they have an unexpected opportunity coming, and they need to prepare to take it. I was able to build up this report of how that conversion went from various people's accounts of that fateful meeting:
The senior staff sat in silence for a while. More than a few glanced out the window again, this time looking out on a swirling rain storm. The French doors banged in the wind.As history has shown, the weather held.
“Admiral Kirk must be told within the next half hour if OVERLORD is to take place on Tuesday.” [Admiral] Ramsay said, referring to the commander of the naval task forces that would need to set out once more.
“If he is told it is on and his forces sail and are then recalled,” Ramsay warned, “then they will not be ready again for Wednesday morning. Therefore a further postponement would be for 48 hours.”
Everyone in the room knew what Ramsay was saying. If they started and stopped again, then they would lose this window of opportunity. They would have to delay until the middle of June at the earliest, or more likely July. The whole invasion would be in jeopardy.
“Looks to me like we’ve gotten a break that we could hardly hope for.” Said General Beddell-Smith, Eisenhower’s Chief of Staff. “It’s a helluva gamble this.”
Eisenhower turned to General Montgomery.
“Do you see any reason for not going on Tuesday?” He asked.
“I would say…” replied Monty, pausing, “…Go.”
“Well boys, there it is.” Eisenhower said, firmly. “I don’t see how we can possibly do anything else.”
Ike watched the rain and the wind raging outside. The weather that, had they proceeded, would right now be wrecking his invasion fleet. Finally he turned to his Chief Meteorologist.
“Well, Stagg, we’re putting it on again.” He said, with a wry smile. “For heaven’s sake, hold the weather to what you’ve told us.”
posted by garius at 4:01 AM on October 20, 2022 [87 favorites]
Here are some of the documents held by the (Irish) National Archives regarding Ireland and D-Day including the secret agreement to share weather data.
posted by scorbet at 5:53 AM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by scorbet at 5:53 AM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
Fantastic comment, garius!
posted by Osrinith at 7:47 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Osrinith at 7:47 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
@garius
"Maybe that person sounded English. I'll give Maureen the benefit of the doubt on the accent."
I often strikes me how similar the accent of a lot of Dublin politicians and general establishment types was to the British accent, even up into the 1970s. Especially from those you could point at as being from an Anglo-Irish background. You'll hear it plenty in newsreels of the period. So over a 1940s-quality phone line to what is even now a remote location I could absolutely believe it was someone from Dublin Castle that actually made the call.
posted by GallonOfAlan at 8:05 AM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
"Maybe that person sounded English. I'll give Maureen the benefit of the doubt on the accent."
I often strikes me how similar the accent of a lot of Dublin politicians and general establishment types was to the British accent, even up into the 1970s. Especially from those you could point at as being from an Anglo-Irish background. You'll hear it plenty in newsreels of the period. So over a 1940s-quality phone line to what is even now a remote location I could absolutely believe it was someone from Dublin Castle that actually made the call.
posted by GallonOfAlan at 8:05 AM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
Oh, and here are the June 1944 readings as sent to the Air Ministry Met Office in London (complete with SECRET stamp).
Irish neutrality during the "Emergency" (as WW2 was referred to) was interesting. On the one hand, there was a certain amount of intelligence sharing both officially (there were links between Ireland's G2 and MI5, and between the Gardaí and the RUC in Northern Ireland) and unofficially (some reports, I think the submarine watch ones, were apparently deliberately sent in the clear so that the British could pick them up.) Dublin also ignored things military planes flying in over Donegal.
On the other hand, Irish soldiers who enlisted in the British Army were treated pretty dreadfully by the Irish government as they were considered deserters. Similarly, there was often a lot of local anger to anyone who enlisted in the British Army - not so much because the Irish were pro-German (though the IRA was) as that they were anti-British. There was also the infamous visit of condolence by De Valera on Hitler's death.
And on the weird hand, there was the K-Lines, the internment camp at the Curragh for any belligerants which, well, here's an extract from a Guardian article about The Brylcreem Boys, a film based on the camp:
Irish neutrality during the "Emergency" (as WW2 was referred to) was interesting. On the one hand, there was a certain amount of intelligence sharing both officially (there were links between Ireland's G2 and MI5, and between the Gardaí and the RUC in Northern Ireland) and unofficially (some reports, I think the submarine watch ones, were apparently deliberately sent in the clear so that the British could pick them up.) Dublin also ignored things military planes flying in over Donegal.
On the other hand, Irish soldiers who enlisted in the British Army were treated pretty dreadfully by the Irish government as they were considered deserters. Similarly, there was often a lot of local anger to anyone who enlisted in the British Army - not so much because the Irish were pro-German (though the IRA was) as that they were anti-British. There was also the infamous visit of condolence by De Valera on Hitler's death.
And on the weird hand, there was the K-Lines, the internment camp at the Curragh for any belligerants which, well, here's an extract from a Guardian article about The Brylcreem Boys, a film based on the camp:
One story kept out of the film for credibility's sake was about two Canadian RAF flyers who crash-landed in Ireland only a few miles from the Curragh camp. Emerging from the wreck thinking they were close to their Scottish base, they spotted a pub and decided to celebrate their survival. They entered the saloon bar to find it heaving with Germans, who, since one was having a birthday, had been given special permission by the Irish to wear Nazi uniforms outside the camp instead of the customary civvies. To add to the Canadians' confusion, the Germans shouted at them to 'go to their own bar'posted by scorbet at 8:56 AM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
I knew there was a lot of weather forecast data being used in the last minute decisions regarding the invasion and determining that there was a window in the storms, but never read the details of it all. Really appreciate the linked article and the comment from garius here.
posted by nubs at 10:16 AM on October 20, 2022
posted by nubs at 10:16 AM on October 20, 2022
« Older She was killed by the police. Why are her bones... | Can you believe they included that?!?! Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by clavdivs at 8:44 PM on October 19, 2022