“Today the only winner is the Brazilian people”
October 31, 2022 12:57 AM   Subscribe

Lula defeats Bolsonaro to again become Brazil’s president. "Twenty years after first winning the Brazilian presidency, the leftist defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro Sunday in an extremely tight election that marks an about-face for the country after four years of far-right politics." Background on Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva: 'Our phoenix': Lula's ups and downs in Brazil defy belief; background on the election: All you need to know about most divisive vote in Brazil’s history.
posted by taz (39 comments total) 45 users marked this as a favorite
 
(An earlier thread on this topic was closed by request of OP)
posted by taz at 1:00 AM on October 31, 2022


Words cannot describe my relief, for the peoples of Brazil 🇧🇷 and for the planet.
posted by lazaruslong at 1:17 AM on October 31, 2022 [45 favorites]


I am friends with a number of Brazilians, and I suppose because of the kind of person I am, their social media is largely ecstatic joy. There is that one guy, who I never talk politics with, who is posting memes about how apparently crime does pay, and we're going to fight to take our country back.

It was very close run, and I'm not relaxing just yet.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:41 AM on October 31, 2022 [12 favorites]


I don't know if I will get to relax in my lifetime, but this is a day of hope.
Congratulations Brazil, and congratulations everyone
posted by mumimor at 2:03 AM on October 31, 2022 [7 favorites]


Best news I've had all week!
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:17 AM on October 31, 2022 [2 favorites]


Congrats to Brazilians for voting out that infamous fascist. Hopefully Bolsonaro won't cause any problems for the handover of power as he threatened, given it's 59 million to 57 million. A tighter vote than anyone would like though!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:51 AM on October 31, 2022 [9 favorites]


Yes, this was totally too close for comfort. I stand by my previous statement: Fuck Bolsonaro, watch out for Socrates
posted by chavenet at 2:55 AM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]




The Indepedent
In a speech made last year, Mr Bolsonaro spoke about a black settlement in Brazil founded by the descendants of slaves. “They do nothing. They are not even good for procreation,” he said.

He has also reportedly referred to black activists as “animals” who should “go back to the zoo”.

In 2014 Mr Bolsonaro got into a heated exchange with congresswoman Maria do Rosario in the lower house of Congress.

“I wouldn’t rape you because you don’t deserve it,” he said, in response to remarks made by Ms Rosario claiming he had encouraged rape.

Mr Bolsonaro later said he was not a rapist, but if he were he would not rape do Rosario because she is “ugly” and “not his type”.

In an interview with Playboy magazine in 2011 Bolsonaro said that he “would be incapable of loving a homosexual son … I would prefer my son to die in an accident than show up with a moustachioed​ man.”

Yet the Roman Catholic candidate, who has managed to win support from evangelicals with his anti-abortion stance, is no puritan.

During an interview in January 2018, Mr Bolsonaro explained how he had previously spent the housing allowance he received as a congressman.

“Since I was a bachelor at the time, I used the money to have sex with people,” he said.

The former army man has spoken fondly of the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil between 1964 and 1985.

“The dictatorship’s mistake was to torture but not kill,” he told a radio interviewer in 2016.
I'll note that this odious list was compiled in 2018 before he became president. The neanderthal remarks only continued to accumulate.

Please, for the sake of Brazil, make a conclusive concession and walk away. If not with dignity, quietly.
posted by adept256 at 3:11 AM on October 31, 2022 [20 favorites]


I'd missed the Juice Media video and thread, thanks chavenet.

Anyone know if Lula halt quickly halt, or dramatically slow, them burning the Amazon, or does doing so require a year of political horse trading?
posted by jeffburdges at 3:50 AM on October 31, 2022 [3 favorites]


The radio just said that Brazil's parliament is still in the hands of Bolsonaro's allies, but I can't say that I can completely wrap my head around it. Anybody with more insight who can comment?
posted by clawsoon at 4:11 AM on October 31, 2022


Well that was quite the weekend; Flamengo and Lula. Well done my adopted country. Huge sigh of relief here. It wasn't easy, and it isn't over yet.
Voter suppression was attempted when the head of the nation's Policia Federal traffic depatartment openly came out in favour of the Bolsonazi and then there were over 500 coordinated road blocks throughout the country in Lula majority voting areas, In Serigipe in the NE the tailbacks were up to 30 KN as voters attempted to get to the polls. Vehicles with Lula stickers were pulled over, Bolsonazi stckers waved through. In fact it was all coordinated like a miliray operation which of course it was. At one point there were troops on the Rio / Niteroi bridge.
Remember that the Bolsonazi and his followers have prepared for this by building the Myth of Stolen Elections in Brazil.
The immediate reaction by the 'gado' can be summed up by this.
Bolsonaro has yet to concede, This is all straight out of the Trump / Bannon playbook. Neither Jair or any of his ghastly family have yet to comment. Uncertain days ahead but the Brazilians are very resiliant as they have shown in the past. Lula has an enormous weight on his shoulders now and I just hope he can do it and match his previous feat of pulling 40 million out of poverty. Inauguration Jan 1st. I am fearful that there will be a few nasty surprises before that.
posted by adamvasco at 4:18 AM on October 31, 2022 [32 favorites]


Reading about the importance of evangelical Christians and misinformation in Bolsonaro's support... it almost seems like evangelical churches are ways to find people who are especially susceptible to misinformation, gather them together in one place, and feed it to them.
posted by clawsoon at 4:33 AM on October 31, 2022 [32 favorites]


I kind of like how L for Loser has been repurposed into L for Lula.
posted by chavenet at 5:30 AM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]


Bolsonaro reported as presently meeting with his running mate Braga Netto (an army general and current Defence Minister). No announcement has yet been forthcoming. The coup plotting moves on #FascismRising.
It is alreadybeeing mooted that Jair and his immediate family might flee the country (wishful thinking maybe). In his place leading the ultra right wing could well be his wife Michelle, pictured here voting yesterday in an Israeli shirt.
posted by adamvasco at 6:04 AM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]


Looking at the chart here it will likely take a year or 2 to get the deforestation under control.
posted by Lanark at 6:31 AM on October 31, 2022 [3 favorites]


It's important that key countries like the US immediately and publicly recognised and congratulated Lula on his victory. A right wing coup in South American just isn't the same when the CIA isn't going to help you do it.

now jair bolsonaro can finally focus on his life’s passion: contracting and being hospitalized for the novel coronavirus

Now, now. He is also frequently hospitalised for other strange ailments, let's not forget those!
posted by atrazine at 7:32 AM on October 31, 2022 [6 favorites]


So happy for the Brazi!ian people. But that was too effing c!ose! Fuck a bunch of evangelicals.
posted by charlesminus at 7:32 AM on October 31, 2022 [4 favorites]


Bolsonaro has not yet conceded, so I am cautious in my optimism at the moment. Generally, though, I'm glad to see this outcome both for Brazilians and for the planet (because there were legitimate concerns that the Amazon could not handle another four years of Bolsonaro).
posted by asnider at 8:11 AM on October 31, 2022 [2 favorites]


I am cautious in my optimism at the moment.

I'll say it: the only trustworthy fascist is a dead fascist. As long as Bolsanaro is alive (and advocating for assassinations isn't something I will never do), he can't be trusted. Lula and the rest of the World, as long as Trump, Putin, etc. are alive, will always be looking over their shoulders.
posted by klanawa at 9:02 AM on October 31, 2022 [7 favorites]


Bolsonaro hasn't conceded.

One Brazilian friend says Bolsonaro is "maintaining radio silence" and she's spooked.

This sounds like an operation might be under way.
posted by doctornemo at 10:18 AM on October 31, 2022 [4 favorites]


Voter suppression was attempted when the head of the nation's Policia Federal traffic depatartment openly came out in favour of the Bolsonazi and then there were over 500 coordinated road blocks throughout the country in Lula majority voting areas, In Serigipe in the NE the tailbacks were up to 30 KN as voters attempted to get to the polls. Vehicles with Lula stickers were pulled over, Bolsonazi stckers waved through. In fact it was all coordinated like a miliray operation which of course it was. At one point there were troops on the Rio / Niteroi bridge.

Left-of-center parties everywhere need to make democratic mobilization a top priority, because otherwise the right can win by marshaling reactionary forces within the state. Their agenda is too dangerous to flirt with that possibility. I think many left-of-center parties have fallen into a bit of a dream where they think they can keep winning about half the time, enough to keep things rolling, without really trying to be popular. They are hedged in by national and international business interests and credit markets, which severely limit their ability to pursue a popular social democratic agenda. This is the "business as usual" of the last few decades. But it is coming to a crisis. To prevent the very worst, left-of-center parties need to cultivate a popular counterforce that is even more terrifying to them than the ones that discipline them now, to force their own hands. Or perhaps it is constitutively impossible for them to do this, in which case it has to come from "social movements."

Lula is great, and obviously it is a tremendous relief that he has won. Hopefully he can assume the presidency without issue. At the same time, his career so far illustrates the problem very starkly. PT in government was a moderate social democratic party, good both for the masses and for business, but was attacked and ultimately forced out by the legal tactics of reactionary forces within the state, most importantly the impeachment of Dilma (a former anti-fascist fighter whose torture by the regime Bolsonaro likes to joke about) and the imprisonment of Lula.

When they were in power, could they have cleaned house in a way that would have undermined the tactics that were used against them -- the phony anti-corruption probes, and the use of security forces to suppress their voters? I don't know. My understanding is, power in Brazil is somewhat de-centralized, and it's hard to use control of the federal government to undermine rival power centers. I don't really know how it works, I'm very much an outsider to Brazilian politics. But it seems to me now, coming into the third Lula term, the question is the same -- can he and his allies create an enduring and robust base for democratic power? If not, any other achievements are as vulnerable as they were in 2018.
posted by grobstein at 11:18 AM on October 31, 2022 [6 favorites]


Left-of-center parties everywhere need to make democratic mobilization a top priority, because otherwise the right can win by marshaling reactionary forces within the state. Their agenda is too dangerous to flirt with that possibility. I think many left-of-center parties have fallen into a bit of a dream where they think they can keep winning about half the time, enough to keep things rolling, without really trying to be popular. They are hedged in by national and international business interests and credit markets, which severely limit their ability to pursue a popular social democratic agenda. This is the "business as usual" of the last few decades. But it is coming to a crisis. To prevent the very worst, left-of-center parties need to cultivate a popular counterforce that is even more terrifying to them than the ones that discipline them now, to force their own hands. Or perhaps it is constitutively impossible for them to do this, in which case it has to come from "social movements."

This. So many left-of-center or wannabe left-of-center parties either don't have enough in their leadership to want to help people or they just plain are too shit scared of the right leaning electorate knocking them back and we just get the status quo, everything getting worse, and an electorate that's like "why the fuck should I vote for Democrats/Labour/SD parties if nothing ever gets better and often things still get worse?"
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:05 PM on October 31, 2022 [10 favorites]


I think many left-of-center parties have fallen into a bit of a dream where they think they can keep winning about half the time, enough to keep things rolling, without really trying to be popular.

To add to that, I think they think they're playing against themselves -- projecting, basically -- rather than against a pack of nihilists. Civility and appeals to the law or decency are useless in that fight. It's no accident that small shards are breaking off of conservative parties in Canada, the US and elsewhere, as certain people realize that their conservative project has been overtaken by a less ideological, more naked and violent pursuit of power. It's not a little irritating that the nominal "left" ("reaching across the aisle," etc.) and the dissidents (Cheney, et al) helped nurture the movement and played chicken with it until it was too late.
posted by klanawa at 2:45 PM on October 31, 2022 [1 favorite]


Please don't make this about the US. It's not.
posted by signal at 5:26 PM on October 31, 2022 [15 favorites]


Can I make it about Lithuania? I've been reading about how Christianity spread into pagan Lithuania mostly in settlements along the rivers, and the pagan practises of people living deeper in the forests were attacked in part by cutting down sacred groves of trees, and that made me think of the support for the deforestation of the Amazon by Evangelicals and of the Indigenous groups who live there trying to resist it...
posted by clawsoon at 6:38 PM on October 31, 2022 [5 favorites]


By the way, the US Department of Justice and other agencies supported the Brazilian Lava Jato inquiry that jailed Lula and ultimately led to the election of Bolsonaro. The exact nature and aim of the collaboration is, I think, still opaque. It is tempting to conclude that US officials wanted to help undermine the PT government, and I do not consider that unlikely (Lula has also expressed this suspicion iirc). But as far as I know there isn't really any smoking gun, and it's not prima facie suspect for US officials to be involved in something that was after all billed as an anti-corruption probe.

An inquiry by a handful of members of the US Congress to learn the details of the collaboration doesn't seem to have panned out. From the accompanying press release:
"There is strong evidence that Brazil's former president Lula was the target of a highly political operation involving the current Justice Minister that was intended to keep him off the ballot in last year's elections, which he almost certainly would have won," Rep. Johnson said. "We need to be sure that DOJ was not party to this tainted process."
If we've gotten any good answers to the members' questions, I haven't been able to track them down. (There is a leaked text where a leader of the inquiry calls Lula's imprisonment "a gift from the CIA." But I'm not sure we know what that means. Was the CIA literally involved? How? Or is the CIA metonymy for the international arm of the US government? I mean it could even just be a joke. Curious if anyone has more insight into this.)

Meanwhile, on the Brazilian side, the collaboration with the US government seems to have been carried on partly in secret, and in violation of their protocols for intergovernmental legal cooperation. The publication of this information, and other related secrets, in Brazil by The Intercept seems to have helped politically defeat the inquiry in Brazil.
posted by grobstein at 7:59 PM on October 31, 2022 [5 favorites]


Brazil Wire has a useful collection of bits and pieces.
See Sergio Moro and US Interferance in Brazil and
CIA Director Makes Secret Visit To Crumbling Bolsonaro Government
posted by adamvasco at 4:07 AM on November 1, 2022 [2 favorites]


Meanwhile still no announcement from the Bolsonazi and this is seen as being silent encouragement to his more radical followers. Truckers shut down highways across the country yesterday as the Policia Federal looked on. A judicial order was made against Silvenei Vasques director general of the PF.
Garulhos airport in São Paulo was also blockaded at one point by protestors. Bolsonaro is becoming more isolated, holed up in his bunker in Brasilia, as world leaders rush to congratulate Lula and re-establish governmental ties especially regarding the Amazon which Lula has sworn to protect. How of course has yet to be seen. Bolsonazi family infighting seems to be taking place as they unfollow each other on social media. How this plays out is anyone's guess at the moment.
Bolsosaro had previously said he only had three alternatives Prison, Death or Victory.
General speculation is one of the following
A - Solo coup
B - Coup with support (?)
C - Escape the country
D - Leave the country and leave VP Hamilton Mourão to complete the formalities
E - Suck it up and complete the formal hand over
F - Speech of acceptance of defeat, transition of power and democratic hand over
G - Waiver / Resignation
Some have suggested he might want to consider emulating past president Getulio Vargas
posted by adamvasco at 4:52 AM on November 1, 2022 [4 favorites]


There is that one guy, who I never talk politics with, who is posting memes about how apparently crime does pay, and we're going to fight to take our country back.

I know a guy like this. Never talked politics with him -- in Brazil, the US, or anywhere else -- because I guess I assumed his politics are bad, but still disappointing to have it confirmed this week with a bunch of blustering about Brazilians voting for a "criminal."
posted by grandiloquiet at 5:59 AM on November 1, 2022










Governo Bolsonaro acaba com ato de covardia institucional

"Bolsonaro Government Ends With An Act of Institutional Cowardice"

[Folha de São Paulo, google translate] (the Google Translate version flubs the headline, but you get the idea)
posted by chavenet at 2:10 PM on November 1, 2022 [2 favorites]


Hopefully without derailing, can anyone point me in the direction of a credible summary of what Lula da Silva's actual policies are or are likely to be? His opponents, of course, describe him in pretty extravagant terms. I'm not inclined to accept their depictions of his politics but I wouldn't mind a decent primer on what is plausibly to be expected..
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:14 AM on November 2, 2022 [1 favorite]


Nerd of the North: Hopefully without derailing, can anyone point me in the direction of a credible summary of what Lula da Silva's actual policies are or are likely to be?

Wikipedia has what seems to be a reasonable summary of what he did the first time around, which might offer some clues for this time around. It seems to be a mix of social programs to reduce malnutrition, improve housing, and expand education; infrastructure investments in roads, rail, and the electricity network; market-driven economic growth; and rainforest protection.

To me most of it sounds like stuff that most developed countries did in the first half of the 1900s to reduce poverty and increase wealth. And that was the effect it had in Brazil.
posted by clawsoon at 4:40 AM on November 2, 2022 [2 favorites]


That one guy I mentioned above is now posting claims that the election was stolen. "Não é fakenews".
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 5:02 PM on November 4, 2022 [1 favorite]




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