United States 2022 Mid-Term Elections Come to a Head
November 8, 2022 10:15 AM   Subscribe

Commencing with an unusual total lunar eclipse, Election Day 2022 is upon us at last. Pundits and prognosticators predict that the Republicans will reclaim at least one house of US's bicameral federal legislature and at the state level many legislatures and governorships are up for grabs as well. Less scrutinized, but perhaps every bit as important, many states will elect officials who will be responsible for the security and integrity of elections going into the 2024 presidential election cycle. There's a lot at stake.

Never mind the links, here's the election thread!
posted by Nerd of the North (723 comments total) 35 users marked this as a favorite
 


If people have interesting links they're encouraged to post them in the thread, but feeling that nobody is going to spend a lot of time on the links in the FPP, I thought it was better to just get a thread going so we had someplace to discuss the election as events develop.

I've put a lot of time into this election so far. Alaska, where I live, has an unusual number of competitive races this year, as well as a still unfamiliar new ranked choice voting system that has had only one test so far (previously), this summer's special congressional election that resulted in the surprise election of our new Congresswoman Mary Peltola to the remainder of the term vacated by 49-year incumbent Congressman Don Young's death.

I've been out knocking on doors, organizing candidate events, sending e-mails, helping a staffer the campaign sent down to make local connections, and even taking advantage of the wildlife that passes through my yard to make an embarrassingly cheesy get-out-the-vote video. (It's shamefully gimmicky but people like animal videos and the last I checked it had 6,000+ views on Reddit and had been reshared on a couple of social media platforms I don't track, so who knows, maybe it'll convince a few stragglers to actually vote, though how anybody can still be sitting on the fence I can't imagine..)
posted by Nerd of the North at 10:25 AM on November 8 [43 favorites]


Curious about what makes that lunar eclipse unusual. It's not like anything unexpected happened.
posted by shenkerism at 10:26 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Only about 1/4 of races for the House of Representatives had polls that were released to the public. Keep this in mind as you evaluate predictions in the media.
posted by gimonca at 10:28 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Excited to not be moderating this. Please think kindly of those who will be and help 'em out.
posted by cortex at 10:28 AM on November 8 [130 favorites]


Curious about what makes that lunar eclipse unusual. It's not like anything unexpected happened.
Only
  1. that it happened on US Election Day, and perhaps
  2. that it was visible where I live, since we typically have cloud cover >90% of the time this time of year
;-)

Had I been in less of a hurry to post, I might have started the FPP "Commencing, unusually, with a total lunar eclipse.." Regardless, it was a fine eclipse.
posted by Nerd of the North at 10:30 AM on November 8 [15 favorites]




Nerd of the North, and everyone who has been volunteering and donating and contributing to get out the vote - thank you SO MUCH for everything you've been doing.

I have a colleague who takes a week or two of PTO around elections to go knock on doors. I try to do my bit, but I am so grateful to everyone who puts in the time and energy.

Thank you! ... and thanks for this thread!
posted by kristi at 10:40 AM on November 8 [25 favorites]


I'm spending a 16 hour day working in my local election services department doing geocode fixes...please go vote!
posted by schyler523 at 10:41 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


So, this is not a prediction, merely a hope:

I really hope enough people are angry enough about the loss of abortion rights to REALLY get out the vote this year, and I hope (longshot, I know, but I do still hope) it means keeping the House plus an actual GAIN of two seats in the Senate, allowing the non-obstructionist Democrats to amend the filibuster and pass voting rights legislation and a FULL New Green Deal.

(By the way, for anyone who is worrying and anxious about the results, as I definitely have been today, permit me to recommend this excellent FPP by doreh_oh about Peptoc, pre-recorded life advice and encouraging messages from kindergartners and grade schoolers.)

Courage, my friends.
posted by kristi at 10:50 AM on November 8 [24 favorites]


The Democrats have will have a resounding victory in this election and will return with expanded majorities in the House and Senate. The media will call this a national rebuke of Trumpism that will force a reconning in the Republican Party.
posted by interogative mood at 10:50 AM on November 8 [32 favorites]


Something that could be useful as long as your polls aren’t crowded (so as to not increase lines for people voting)—go in and ask the helpful workers what someone who has an absentee ballot but didn’t put it in the mail should do.

This was me; online instructions told me to take it to my polling place. When I got there they told me to take it to the election commission. I left and got back in my car to do so and someone came running out saying they’d figured out how I could still vote there (spoiling the ballot). I came back in and one of the poll workers was on the phone confirming the correct procedure for doing so.

For me, with a car and nowhere to be for another hour, if I had to go to the Election Commission, it would’ve been no big deal. For someone else, it could have meant not voting. Now if someone else comes in with that problem, the poll workers are trained on what to do.

I don’t know if this is a national trend but my polling place is usually all retirees. This time it was mostly eager young people, who are exceedingly helpful but may not have the years of experience to know what to do with situations like these. Bringing these questions up before they encounter a voter without the resources to fix the problem the roundabout way could have a meaningful impact.
posted by brook horse at 10:51 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


Either that or the blood moon is an omen of a Republican victory like the prophecy foretold.
posted by adept256 at 10:53 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


good luck to all the US MeFites

we all need luck right now, but especially you, today
posted by elkevelvet at 10:53 AM on November 8 [33 favorites]


Good luck, America. Sending you all my best hopes from across the pond.
posted by Paul Slade at 10:53 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


I got this email from Vote Save America today with advice on what to expect, how to stay calm, and how to volunteer and help today: apparently it is not too late.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:54 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


I often say that I have "lapsed amicably" from Catholicism, and even when I was more devout I wasn't really doing the whole novenas/rosary kind of things. But my sleep cycle has been a little hiccupy because of the time change and I woke up at 5 am, an hour before I was supposed to; I spent that hour lying in bed and whispering fervent prayers to St. Jude.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:02 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


every judicial position on my ballot was uncontested. anyone know where i could get a cheap law degree?
posted by jy4m at 11:03 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Thanks to all who volunteered. Like a lot of people, I had planned to get more directly involved with Cheri Beasley's campaign here in NC. However, with one elderly parent in rehab, a second one with a surprise retinal surgery, both kids applying to college/residential school, a new management job for Mrs. Caviar, layoffs at work ... I didn't do much in person. I did use the fact that I have good income to donate repeatedly to Cheri Beasley and various other Vote Save America recommendations.

I voted this morning and feel good about that, but depending on how things go I am going to blame myself for not doing more. I'm sure I'm also not alone in having felt a ton of anxiety about this cycle, to the point where it impacts my sleep some nights and synergizes with other bad stuff going on . Exercise (even walking or whatever equivalent you can muster) has really helped. The backup mantra is that if the Rs win, maybe we can spark some major protests and extragovernmental change. But I'd prefer if we didn't have to suffer through R policies to get that to happen.

Hang in there, kittens!
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:10 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


So we had this swell man canvasing our area trying to get on our school board.

Be sure to take the time to weed out the trumpists going for the little offices. Goodspeed all.
posted by The Power Nap at 11:11 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]


The media will call this a national rebuke of Trumpism that will force a reconning in the Republican Party.
I suspect a rogue auto-correct but I'm honestly not sure how to read this.

"Force a reckoning in the Republican Party" seems the most plausible, but "force a retconning in the Republican Party" is believable, and even "force more conning in the Republican Party."
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:15 AM on November 8 [26 favorites]


I dropped my mail-in at the box last night (as usual, I didn't have the executive function to get it in the mail a week before the deadline.) There was a line of cars going past the box like it was a drive-through. I've never seen that before. Maybe it bodes well for turnout.
posted by Horkus at 11:15 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


A reminder to all up front that we will not have meaningful election results tonight, or even tomorrow in many states. Much as in 2020, there will be a substantial Red Mirage effect due to Republicans voting in person and Democrats voting by mail in greater numbers.

And just as in 2020, there will be plenty of conservatives screaming at the top of their lungs about how voters, election boards and Secretaries of State following legal protocols for the handling of mail-in ballots to the letter as to how Republican-controlled state legislatures dictated that they must be run are engaging in rampant fraud and vote-stealing and blatant, in-your-face election theft.

If you encounter people such as this, cordially invite them to go to Hell, go directly to Hell, do not pass "Go" and do not collect two hundred dollars.
posted by delfin at 11:16 AM on November 8 [37 favorites]


I won't go into astrology stuff here, but an eclipse happening in astrology tends to mean "shit goes even more cray-cray than usual." So this happening on Election Day, well....
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:18 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Yeah, yeah, democracy hanging by a thread. But all I got to do was vote to retain my kind of dull Democratic congressman, who I don't think is really in serious danger of being unseated, and whose continued presence isn't going to move the needle much, if at all. No Senatorial race, governorship, not one school board election - hell, not even a bond referendum. I'm feeling a bit left out.

Also, re the blood moon, I don't see much opportunity in my neck of the woods, as mentioned, but astrologers expect some fun somewhere.
posted by Naberius at 11:20 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]




I’ve been a long time political junkie, always following things closely. Not this time. The polling environment is just absolutely strange right now and no one knows what’s going to happen. In any other year, inflation would have handed this election to the GQP on a silver platter, but abortion and the threat to democracy has changed who is engaged and how. So I don’t know what’s gonna happen (I don’t have a good feeling about it, that’s normal, and there’s nothing I can do at this point to affect the outcome. My ballot was turned in two weeks ago and was verified. I’m trying to learn to let things that I can’t control not be things that destroy my mental health, because good god the anxiety of the past few years has been really bad on me. Of course, that comes with its own helping of guilt, because while I have the privilege to know that a Republican win won’t really change a lot for me, there are a lot of people who would be in line to suffer greatly under that scenario. I can’t will the election to go our way, I can only find what I can do to help later when we know the new situation. It’s all just (here you go, a freebie for you autocorrect) ducked.
posted by azpenguin at 11:21 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


My wife and I have to go back to our polling place this evening because they were having “technical difficulties “ this morning and we weren’t able to vote. On top of that, when they looked me up in their database I had apparently already voted.

My father and I have the same name ( he’s Sr, I’m Jr) so I’m wondering if there wasn’t some major snafu when he voted last week.
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:21 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


My prediction: Dems lose house and very likely lose senate. And pretty confident there will be no "republican party reckoning" for sure either way.

So I am personally bracing myself for The Suck, sorry y'all. Here's hoping I'm wrong, but not feeling the optimism today.
posted by windbox at 11:22 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Oh, one more thing--in many places where polling locations are in schools, schools are closed today (I heard a 13 year old describe it as "in case someone comes to vote with their gun" which was just a little bit devastating). Meaning parents have kids home, which can make it harder to get out and vote. If you know anyone in the area with kids and can volunteer to babysit for an hour, that's another way to keep helping.
posted by brook horse at 11:24 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]


My prediction: Godzilla bursts forth from the ocean, destroys much of Washington D.C. until Batman intervenes with a Bat-grenade
posted by mightygodking at 11:32 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


So we had this swell man canvasing our area trying to get on our school board.
Locally, we had elections for city and borough offices and ballot propositions last month. Since no corner of the country is too remote to be untouched by right-wing culture-war bullshit we had a local group of offended parents excited by what they saw on television who wanted to reenact that in our community.

They objected to LGBTQ+-tolerant content and programs at our local public library system and since their demands that all such programs be cancelled as offensive to their sensibilities were politely heard but declined, they organized sufficiently to get a measure put on the ballot that would have eliminated 40% of our library's funding. We defeated that by about a 6% margin last month but it meant an additional month of meetings, rallies, etc, even before the main November races started to heat up. We're all tired from fighting that battle on top of everything else but I'm heading out in a few minutes to wave signs for the incumbent state legislator being challenged by one of the library-censoring [unspeakable]s.

On top of every systematic advantage rigged by the structure of the electoral system, by money, by a weaponized partisan media environment, by redistricting, and everything else you might name, it's alarming to realize how much easier it is to destroy or reverse progress than it is to build or move forward.

I realize that everybody reading this who can vote almost certainly did vote, but have you also been nudging your friends, family, and neighbors wherever it might do some good? The effects of this election are going to be with us for a long time.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:32 AM on November 8 [20 favorites]


Yeah, yeah, democracy hanging by a thread. But all I got to do was vote to retain my kind of dull Democratic congressman, who I don't think is really in serious danger of being unseated, and whose continued presence isn't going to move the needle much, if at all. No Senatorial race, governorship, not one school board election - hell, not even a bond referendum. I'm feeling a bit left out.
Phone-banking and texting operations for many candidates are still working hard to get voters to the polls in locations that are more competitive than the one on which you live. If you ask I am confident someone would MeMail you some tips on how to put in a productive hour or two.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:34 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


If you haven’t voted yet and are planning to vote in person, please be kind to your poll workers. It’s a tough gig, they’re dealing with abuse, and elections simply do not work without them.
posted by kat518 at 11:35 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]


> My prediction: Dems lose house and very likely lose senate. And pretty confident there will be no "republican party reckoning" for sure either way.

My prediction is also that the Republicans are either going to win or "win," but either way I (speaking as a foreigner) fear the U.S. has already passed a political event horizon.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:38 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]




For what it's worth, I just got back from voting in Philadelphia, and the poll worker said the number of voters were much higher than normal for a mid-term. Not 2020 numbers, of course, but not all that much lower. I'm going to remain hopeful and avoid watching the news.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:46 AM on November 8 [21 favorites]


In Breath of the Wild a blood moon means all the monsters come back. If that's not a metaphor for GOP gains I don't know what is.
posted by downtohisturtles at 11:52 AM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Minneapolis election workers in my precinct were super great this morning. There was a decent turnout, every booth was full, but they were also moving people through really quickly. So we had two good things going: lots of people voting, and it was quick and easy to vote.
posted by gimonca at 11:54 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]


My somewhat snarky prediction: Democrats will end up with 220 seats in the House, exactly what they have today, no more, no less, and NYT journalists will have a mass cry-in when all their narratives collapse and they have nothing to write about.
posted by gimonca at 11:57 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


If you have a qanon weirdo in your life, could you please do a welfare check? I feel like we should be on alert for each other.
posted by adept256 at 11:57 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


and NYT journalists will have a mass cry-in when all their narratives collapse and they have nothing to write about.

It's okay, there's still endless copaganda, transphobia, Republican talking points, and general shittiness the NYT can generate.
posted by curious nu at 12:01 PM on November 8 [20 favorites]


dems likely giving up both houses was predictable a long way off, but even before it's come to pass we're all already blaming it on whatever we want to blame it on. the freaks like me can whine about endemic graft in a party that has no strategy beyond catering to a shrinking "reasonable" segment of the upper middle class, and the freaks unlike me can blame it on undue capitulation to the progressive SJW activists who make unreasonable demands like turning off the torment nexus.
posted by jy4m at 12:05 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


I feel awful in that I realized entirely too late that I missed my window to vote in the Georgia midterms. Is there any good reminder system for us Americans living in other countries to Do the Important Thing?
posted by Kitteh at 12:07 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Voted last Saturday.

Will be very happy to have a break from all of the fundraising texts and e-mails. Team Pelosi was hitting me up what felt like every other day for a while. For a solid two weeks, I would reply every time asking why I should give incumbents money without at least telling me the plan to codify Roe.

I'm sure no one will be surprised to hear that I never received a response.

Despite all that, I am hoping Democrats pull this one out. It's gonna be a long night watching polls come in.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 12:09 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


I don't do politics on FaceBook, but this week I made a couple of posts just bluntly saying that we need to vote blue or else.

I am pretty sure that a lot of former colleagues and friends will be super mad but I no longer give a damn about people who value that party over actual humans -- and have been looking forward to finding out who I can cut loose.

Sorry I didn't do more, but for me this was a big step.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:10 PM on November 8 [25 favorites]


My partner an I are first election transplants in Georgia from MN - we early voted a week ago. Add 2 to the Blue in GA.
posted by djseafood at 12:12 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]




I won't go into astrology stuff here, but an eclipse happening in astrology tends to mean "shit goes even more cray-cray than usual." So this happening on Election Day, well....

posted by jenfullmoon at 2:18 PM on November


Do I even need to say it?
posted by cooker girl at 12:14 PM on November 8 [35 favorites]


My state (Wisconsin) is about to usher in an anti-democratic, veto proof republican supermajority that will allow them to pass any bill they want, and let me tell you, these fucking people want to pass some really evil bills. And all this will be the case *even if* we elect Barnes and Evers, *even if* the majority of voters are Democratic. And the first thing they're going to do is ensure that the electoral process becomes even less democratic, until it's a literal MAGA oligarchy, accountable only to the most radical primary voters.
posted by dis_integration at 12:15 PM on November 8 [31 favorites]


Eponysterical! I said it!
posted by cooker girl at 12:15 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]


Kitteh, Democrats Abroad have got you (and me) covered.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:16 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


That won’t help this year but it will help in the future.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:17 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Kitteh, Democrats Abroad have got you (and me) covered.

Thank you! Usually there is some fellow American here in Kingston who posts in our local subreddit to remind the rest of us to Do the Important Thing, but alas.
posted by Kitteh at 12:19 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I'll be glad to see the end of political ads. Here in California dialysis propositions are in their third election in a row now. I don't know enough about dialysis to say anything. Why are you asking me? And neither of the mayoral candidates in LA excite me. I voted against Rick Caruso because of his nonstop "Here's me with black people. Here's me with Asians. Here's a mailer with fake children's crayon handwriting supporting me. See? Everyone likes me!" campaign and the fact that he's really a Republican but Karen Bass doesn't have much going for her either. And I didn't vote for any judges because I have no way of telling them apart. Federal seats will go the way I want so nothing really on the line there. I'm just tired of it all.
posted by downtohisturtles at 12:20 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


The Federal Write-In Absentee Ballot is an emergency blank ballot that should only be used in the event a UOCAVA voter does not receive a properly requested absentee ballot. Submission deadlines are the same as other ballots. 
posted by cooker girl at 12:20 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


For those of you who need more detailed information on your candidates, the League of Women Voters is your resource. All you do is enter your address and they'll bring up all your candidates, including judicial, and issues/propositions, and give you detailed information on each one, including endorsements. Endorsements are a GREAT way to find out which judicial candidates you want to vote for. Endorsed by the FOP? Maybe not the best candidate. Endorsed by Planned Parenthood? Go to town.
posted by cooker girl at 12:24 PM on November 8 [14 favorites]


Greetings from Colorado Springs! Election days are always a bit disheartening here in Colorado District 5 because our resident congressman, who has been sitting comfortably since 2006 in the third most secure Republican congressional seat in the nation, will win in a landslide yet again without lifting a grubby, ethics-challenged little finger.

My fair city is chock full of active military, military families, and military retirees and surrounded by no fewer than FIVE military installations and yet somehow since 2006 we keep re-electing the same knuckleheaded, coup-supporting empty suit who routinely denies VA benefits and veterans protections at every turn. And who managed to lose our lucrative Space Force presence to Alabama despite elaborate and aggressive fealty to 45. And who keeps trying to pass an abortion reversal bill, which is something that's not actually a thing, medically, scientifically, philosophically, realistically, or otherwise. And who insisted on dropping covid protocols for his more-cautious staff, who then all ended up immediately getting covid and infecting untold scores of others. And whose son had apparently secretly lived in a storage room in the Capitol?

I've been watching Mary Peltola from Alaska with so much interest and I think she'll keep her seat, even as a democrat. Her whole message is that it's not about party, it's about representing the needs of Alaska -- fishing, working families, the whole Alaska frame of mind. She seems so genuine. And I wish we had a representative in Southern Colorado who could clearly articulate the specific features and needs of our region, our ecology, our defense community, our tourism, our needs for water and resources as our population skyrockets. I'm so tired. I just want a real representative who speaks for the people who live here.

But! There are good things on the horizon for Colorado. Our incumbent governor will likely hold his seat against a university regent dead set on overturning abortion in our state, which is surrounded on three sides and often two states deep by various state bans. There's a statewide bill for free school lunches for ALL kids, which is looking really promising. And there's a good chance to pass some housing protections for gold star families and maybe some affordable housing for others. And legal magic mushrooms are up for a vote!
posted by mochapickle at 12:25 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]


my prediction - if the democrats lose the house and or senate, they lose - if they win the house and or senate, the republicans will say they won and the democrats cheated

my 2nd prediction - no matter what happens, we will not have an effective government for the next 2 years, and perhaps not ever
posted by pyramid termite at 12:26 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


I don't want to double dip on my comment but I wanted to unspin the implications further. I believe this will be the last election in which my vote will be counted in Wisconsin. If the state party enshrines its supermajority, the next thing that happens is that they will ensure whoever the GOP candidate is for President wins the state no matter what, stealing the election because they believe it was already stolen in 2020. Without federal intervention (or something even more radical), Wisconsin will cease to be a democracy very soon, and you can add its electoral votes to the republican side by default. It drives me crazy that nothing is being done about this blatant attempt to establish authoritarian rule. They say that the states are the laboratories of democracy. Well, if they get their way here, as they almost certainly will, the experiment in permanent conservative rule will be repeated not just in other states, but likely for the country as a whole. Maybe I'm chicken littling here, but casting my ballot today it really washed over me that even if we go through the motions again the in future, that ballot will soon be rendered meaningless.
posted by dis_integration at 12:31 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]


I have once again forgotten to research local school board candidates and left the whole section blank. It’s non-partisan, so there’s not an easy “garbo vs palatable” demarcation (who in Maryland is running GOP at this point with what’s-his-name at the top of the ticket).

So learn from my perennial failings and take a cursory glance at the school board blurbs before you head in.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:33 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


My prediction is +30-35R House Seats and +2R Senate seats. I do hope I'm wrong and I was more optimistic before the weekend. Election day jitters or correctly reading the vibes? Stay tuned.
posted by Justinian at 12:46 PM on November 8


Of interesting note from my neck of the woods (Colorado Springs, same as mochapickle above) is that ballot returns for my deep red county are down. The most populous county in the state is lagging those up in the Denver area for total ballots returned. Statewide, the ballot returns from the R's in particular are much lower than they were at this time in 2018. This is in a state that makes it super easy to vote with 100% mail in voting and drop boxes just about everywhere.

Polls are based upon an expected return rate by the usual suspects who traditionally vote. The optimist in me wants to believe that a portion of non-MAGMA R's will sit this one out. Given how close things have been, it won't take more than 1 in 20 of a given party's voters to skip this round for it to result in a large shift in the results.

But the pessimist in me wonders if I should just finish off that bottle of whiskey from Axe and Oak when I get home and stay away from the news reports.
posted by SegFaultCoreDump at 12:52 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Only about 1/4 of races for the House of Representatives had polls that were released to the public.

There's not much point in running polls in districts where one party dominates, which is most districts.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:52 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Howdy, neighbor!
posted by mochapickle at 12:56 PM on November 8


After the horror of the 2016 election, I can't take the play by play anymore with these elections. My affective filter is fully engaged, and I refuse to hope for anything. Taking a page from Stoic philosophy, I am already expecting the worst, expecting the Republicans to take *everything*. That's my baseline. So if Democrats win *anything* it's icing on the cake.
posted by zardoz at 1:01 PM on November 8 [19 favorites]


It's unclear how things will go, especially given that various polls for this election have probably not represented the true voter base and statistics as well as in previous years. I don't think much of Nate Silver's analyses but he is correct about these polling complications for the simulations he runs.

I do wonder how much of the wave that the media is predicting (and how much strife that it claims is present) is predicated on the amount of money it brings in from political advertising.

The media cannot be impartial in its reporting when it makes record levels of revenue off of the people and parties it reports on.

Ramping up voter anxieties connects voters with advertisers. To paraphrase Les Moonves, Republicans are bad for America, but their violence and threats of violence are good for business.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:05 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


What is the earliest that we're likely to have results that aren't just total noise? Not until the middle of the night into tomorrow, right? I mercifully have a work event tonight and after that I'm gonna try not to stay up all night obsessing, as is my norm.
posted by geegollygosh at 1:06 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


I am looking forward to the Democrats keeping the House and picking up 2 seats in the Senate. I can't wait to live in a country where McConnell has no real power.

Optimism: it is the American way.
posted by gwydapllew at 1:06 PM on November 8 [19 favorites]


Every election day I make the same grim joke that it's like waiting for a biopsy to come back. But this time it's as if the doctor told us beforehand, "Yeah, it really doesn't look good..."
posted by Ursula Hitler at 1:10 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Researchers Claim TikTok's Suppressing Get Out The Vote Efforts
The research, conducted by non-profit media lab Accelerate Change and shared with Gizmodo, suggests videos with influencers using election related words were viewed far less than nearly identical videos where those same terms were not said. Accelerate Change says its research has so far led to 370,000 views from 20 different paired videos. The pairs of videos were nearly identical, with one pair including verbal uses of political words like “mid-terms,” and “get out the vote,” and the other featuring those words not spoken but hand written on a sign. The TikToks with the handwritten election terms reportedly received three times as many views as the videos where influencers spoke election related words out loud.

Though it’s difficult to make a conclusive statement on something as complex as a notoriously black boxed social media algorithm based on a single limited study, Accelerate Change’s President Peter Murray believes the implications of the findings are clear: TikTok’s algorithm suppresses election content.

“Often with an algorithm performance experiment like this, you struggle to see a pattern in the data, but in this case the result was dramatic and clear: TikTok is suppressing more than 65% of voting video views,” Murray said.
posted by MrVisible at 1:14 PM on November 8 [22 favorites]


In the near term, in the US congress, I do not think it matters what happens today. Net zero means the national dems say "welp, can't do what we promised if we gained seats". R majorities mean two years of vetos on some really horrific stuff, probably a couple shutdowns. Dem pickups are the least likely of all and mean that the national party will way "wow! that was close! better keep courting the middle*"

* the actual middle wants change. the "middle" they're courting is right-wing NYT opinion page writers and Lincoln Project ghouls.

The GOP is so much better at winning and enacting their political goals it's not even funny.

I mostly just want Fetterman to win because it seems like he's the populist model the national dems need, the sort of guy who can make a single working-class republican voter (or more) actually look at Fox News and say "you're calling his ideas socialism? But they help me..." And hopefully get stuff done when he has the power to.

The mainstream news really shat the bed this cycle. In January 2021 they just gave up on any sort of genuine reporting about threats to the country.
posted by supercres at 1:14 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


I am an election official/ Ballot Master, and have been working a polling site in a fire station, since 5:15am this morning. Rural upstate NY. The reason I do it is to be witness to free, fair, and open elections. The two things of note that have happened (1) a woman did not want to use the pens because she didn’t trust them (2) a very tall and very thin gender neutral person in a full witches outfit and heavy makeup stopped to have a conversation with the skeleton in a fireman’s shirt before voting.

I am as nervous as anyone about the outcome, but happy to live in a relatively progressive state.

Godspeed everyone 😬
posted by tarantula at 1:15 PM on November 8 [46 favorites]


(1) a woman did not want to use the pens because she didn’t trust them

Were they blue ink pens? I don't trust blue ink pens because I find them tawdry.
posted by Lord_Pall at 1:17 PM on November 8 [24 favorites]


I voted early in FL the Thursday before Halloween, for all the good it will do. Crist practically begged the national party for help, but to no avail. Demings has put up a good fight against Rubio, but also to no avail.

So, I guess DeSantis starts running for president tomorrow. Maybe he'll be distracted by national ambitions and leave FL alone for the next two years.
posted by wittgenstein at 1:21 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


I have no predictions, no hopes nor cautions. I'm just riding out today trying to avoid thinking about it more than absolutely necessary. For all those who've done your part, thank you. Good luck, all.
posted by jzb at 1:21 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


voter cats on twitter and via nitter
posted by the primroses were over at 1:31 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


My polling place is apparently hopping, and when I early voted, there was a LINE, which has never happened before(Madison’s amazing clerk blankets the city in early voting locations). When I door knocked, I convinced one person that the evil billionaire doesn’t care about her and her homeschoolers, helped one person’s daughter register to vote in Pennsylvania to vote for Fetterman, helped someone who had moved find his polling place because he thought he could vote at work(he cannot, it was too late).

I am allowing myself a single tiny ray of hope
posted by rockindata at 1:37 PM on November 8 [35 favorites]


We early voted except for my younger child, who traveled home from university (in-state, so not far) to vote (and they'll get dinner for it). I'm in Indiana so for the most part my votes will affect nothing, save for retaining Andre Carson in a safe Democratic seat, but I am cautiously optimistic that the media predictions of a Republican wave are projections of wishful thinking of their part that the data doesn't really support.
posted by Gelatin at 1:37 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Twin Cities head judge checking in! So far everything has gone smoothly - except we didn't have enough voting booths for the crowd so we raided the host church's classrooms for extra tables. Voters have been coming in waves. My precinct had >80% turnout in 2020, probably won't see as much this year because it's a midterm. The cold rain might affect turnout as well, especially when lines are out the door.

We have one pollwatcher (from the DFL) but he's staying out of the way. I hope other precincts have either NO pollwatchers/challengers, or if they have them they are as quiet as ours is.
posted by Gray Duck at 1:47 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Argghh, forgot -
DFL=Democratic-Farmer-Labor party in Minnesota. It's so ingrained that I forget other states don't have a DFL.
posted by Gray Duck at 1:49 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]


Hey there, Gray Duck-- my 16-yo daughter is working as an election judge in Minneapolis today. She said she was nervous, and I asked her why. "You know, trying to keep democracy propped up and stuff." She is wise.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:55 PM on November 8 [30 favorites]


DFL=Democratic-Farmer-Labor party in Minnesota.

And to amplify, DFL'ers are also usually DEMOCRAT FO' LIFE in the Land of Sky-Blue Waters.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:56 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


This SNL sketch about the 2018 mid-term elections seems to be nearly as relevant to this year's mid-terms.

And if anyone needs any emotional support munchies, there's always my mother's brownie recipe, which I shared with you after you elected Biden in 2020.
posted by orange swan at 2:07 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


I have posted before about Washington’s 3rd District where Trumpist, election-denying pro-insurrection Joe Kent is facing off against auto-shop owning Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez.

Kent, a former Green Beret, won the primary against the incumbent Republican Jamie Herrera Butler. Butler, you will remember, was one of a handful of republicans in the House to vote for Trump’s impeachment.

Since the primary, we’ve learned very little about Kent’s job at American Enterprise Solutions, which probably doesn’t exist at all but pays him a $109k/year salary. A former campaign staffer called it a phantom job. It’s very weird! Who is this guy??

Meanwhile, Marie Glusenkamp Perez appears to be a charming young person in her ad spots that I see during “Jeopardy”, where she chops down a tree on her homestead and voices support for Dem pocketbook issues and reproductive choice.

The polls in the Republican-leaning district show a close race. Good luck WA-03! We’re rooting for you!!
posted by chrchr at 2:16 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


What I should do tonight: Go to sleep early and see if there's any news in the morning.

What I will do: stare at CNN and doomscroll through meaningless partial results.

Why It Will Take So Long to Get Results Tonight. A guide to various states reporting rules; i.e., why results will often take a long time to come in. For example, in Pennsylvania, "election officials can’t start processing or vote counting any mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day."
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 2:21 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


But the pessimist in me wonders if I should just finish off that bottle of whiskey from Axe and Oak...

In 2016, I had two beers ready to drink on election night: Celebrator Doppelbock and Unibroue's La Fin du Monde. I ended up downing the latter. I kept the bottle of Celebrator in the closet for two years and drank it after the 2018 midterms. Friend, it was delicious.

This time, I've got a Deschutes Jubel Ale that might get cautiously sipped later this week if the Senate stays blue.

I no longer trust myself with alcohol if things go badly.
posted by gurple at 2:22 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


I'm rooting so hard for the lot of you that I'm running out of roots here.
Good luck, all y'all!
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:23 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]


Yeah, I'm really watching for a Fetterman win more than anything and that feels like an actual toss up compared to pulling for house and senate majorities, which have been pretty much toast for a few weeks now. Gonna negative nancy and maintainin that we'll lose both, it will suck tremendously, but if he can win I'll at least feel hopeful to see him on the national stage and maybe even attempt to meet this upcoming shitty moment with some real urgency.
posted by windbox at 2:24 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


In the near term, in the US congress, I do not think it matters what happens today.

That's a pretty darn near term, though. Senate terms are six years, so what happens today determines the playing field in 2024.
posted by gurple at 2:28 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Women under 25 could be the MVPs of the midterms
The Democratic margin of young women ages 18 to 29 who say they’re likely to vote jumped 9 points from the spring until now. And the most important issue to a plurality of these voters? Abortion.

But I've noticed a hesitation to recognize this potential impact. On Oct. 31, Georgia election official Gabriel Sterling tweeted: “The single largest age group registered in Georgia is the 18-24 year olds with 853,426 registered. However, only 65,605 have voted. That is 7.68% of the youngest voters voting.”

According to Tom Bonier, the CEO of the Democratic political data services firm TargetSmart, there’s a possible explanation for that gap. “Most of the pollsters have been asking ‘How do you plan to vote?’ or ‘When do you plan to vote?’ and the young voters have the highest share of saying ‘On Election Day,’” he told me. He added, “When you look at the New York 19 special election, the Kansas primary, some of these higher turnout elections we've had in the last couple of months, the younger voters were more likely to vote on Election Day than older voters.”
I've heard more than one person under 30 say that they are going to vote on Election Day because they're afraid Republicans will find some way to throw absentee or early votes out. So I'm really curious how this plays out.
posted by brook horse at 2:32 PM on November 8 [12 favorites]


What is the earliest that we're likely to have results that aren't just total noise?

Let's take a look back at the media calls in 2018. Now, that was an actual "wave" election, but many media orgs hemmed and hawed before reporting the outcome. By 11 Eastern, the results, and the change in House control, was reported.

It's also possible that if House control depends on a small number of very tight districts, or districts that could take a long time to count, or both, it could easily stretch into the next couple of days.

With a lot of extremely tight Senate races, I also won't be surprised if a call on the Senate waits until Wednesday or beyond. Too many states involved that took days to complete in 2020 (AZ, NC, PA, WI, etc.).

Long story short, if you feel like you should turn off the TV and go to bed, exercise some self-care and get some sleep.
posted by gimonca at 2:33 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Facebook showed me a memory from 6 years ago today (the 2016 election.) I look so smug sitting there in my car in my "lucky" blue shirt and my "I Voted" sticker.

I threw the shirt away.
posted by Serene Empress Dork at 2:34 PM on November 8 [29 favorites]


According to Tom Bonier, the CEO of the Democratic political data services firm TargetSmart, there’s a possible explanation for that gap.

I work for TargetSmart!
posted by NotLost at 2:41 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


One of the traditions in Australian democracy is the sausage sizzle. You vote, then you eat a sausage on bread. It's the democracy sausage. We have a lot of diversity here, so in recent elections we've set up internet maps of polling places that meet your dietary concerns. Halal, kosher, vegan, that kind of thing. You can choose where to vote to find he sausage that's right for you.

Voting is compulsory, there's a 75$ fine. It's on a saturday morning though, and it's a barbecue, and it's at the local school. It's not so onerous.

I'm drifting away from my question - do you have a map of the bake sales that I've heard of? My local school has a cricket pitch and the sausage money is going towards cricket gear for the kids. Are there options for you guys? It's something that makes election day special for me. This year I shook hands with someone who definitely voted for Satan and we ate sausages together anyway.
posted by adept256 at 2:42 PM on November 8 [26 favorites]


have once again forgotten to research local school board candidates and left the whole section blank. It’s non-partisan, so there’s not an easy “garbo vs palatable” demarcation

Forever grateful to the wackos running for school board in my area who helpfully labelled themselves "unmask our children" on the ballot**. And put up signs all over town with their eyebrow-raising slogan "education not indoctrination" so I already knew their names. Thanks for labelling yourselves so I could vote for the other candidates, guys!!!

Today I learned that these absolute lunatics don't even send their kids to public school, they all homeschool. I hope they go down in flames, I know nothing about the incumbant candidates but if I could vote for them twice I would.

**Masks have not been required in the local area schools since the start of the year.
posted by subdee at 2:46 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


I'm in WI and have personally never heard of an election day social/food/sport/anything voting event other than watch parties for the vote counting. Not the actual voting part.

Voting sausage sounds amazing...
posted by brook horse at 2:47 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Yeah, I want the voting sausage of all varieties.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:49 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Oh, we do get an "I Voted" sticker which is genuinely more motivating than it should be. But sausage would be even more so.
posted by brook horse at 2:49 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


One of the traditions in Australian democracy is the sausage sizzle.

I have a half-baked theory that what truly keeps religions going is communal meals.

Perhaps the sausage sizzle will keep democracy alive in Australia longer than anywhere else in the world, just because people don't want to give up that Saturday morning communal barbeque.
posted by clawsoon at 3:00 PM on November 8 [12 favorites]


MetaFilter: Yeah, I want the voting sausage
posted by elkevelvet at 3:03 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


As a fairly new Wisconsinite, election sausage feels like a VERY Wisconsin idea.
posted by wintermind at 3:09 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


I think in Wisconsin a lot of folks might go for an election meat raffle where your "I Voted!" sticker is your entry ticket.
posted by bassooner at 3:14 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Sending you all good thoughts from elsewhere, after midnight.
posted by liketheoldweb at 3:19 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


I miss democracy sausage. My personal theory as to why it’s not a thing here is the US history around treating and vote buying with food & liquor.
posted by zamboni at 3:25 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


I’m at a women leaders forum this week feeling more discouraged than I’ve ever been about the state of my country. The opening comments showed a lot of data about how not only have we lost ground on equality but the US has regressed noticeably more than other democratic countries in many ways. Over the last 5 years in the G7, perceptions on female leaders have not improved and the percentage of people who felt ‘very comfortable’ with a woman head of government has dropped in every G7 nation in the last 5 years. Women are prejudiced against female leaders but men are more so and young people are more prejudiced than their parents. When men, women, and youth increasingly don’t trust women leaders (in government, but also business, etc.), where do we go from here?
posted by Bunglegirl at 3:27 PM on November 8 [20 favorites]


I forgot to mention, even though the Murdoch media machine owns a political party in Australia, and they promised that the sand worms of Arrakis would explode from the ground to consume your home and family if you voted for the Labor party, the Labor party won. Brazilians have even more recent experience defeating right-wing extremists at the ballot. Australia and Brazil are very different, but we are all human, maybe it's just human to be sick of this shit.
posted by adept256 at 3:30 PM on November 8 [20 favorites]


do you have a map of the bake sales that I've heard of?

Nope. Bake/snack/whatever sales are totally down to the individual schools or whatever.

I think one big difference is that, via this Australian Election Commission "ways to Vote" page, it says "You can vote at any polling place in your state or territory on election day." I'm assuming that "any" means "any", like as long as you live in Queensland you can vote at any polling place in Queensland, even if it's nowhere near your actual residence.

In the US, if you vote in person on Election Day proper, you have ONE SPECIFIC location in the area around your registered residence that you personally can vote at. (Maybe, depending on individual state and/or county laws, you can still vote at your county's Board of Elections building.)

Here's an example map for Cuyahoga County, state of Ohio, where Cleveland is the major city. Each of those tiny little divisions is a precinct, and you can zoom in on those maps to get an idea of the size of each precinct, and polling locations are marked. And if you click on each polling location, you can see which precincts vote at that location. So my polling location, for example, covers 4 precincts. Some cover more, some less.

If you don't vote at that specific location, your ballot is now a "provisional" ballot, which will only be counted after the county Board of Elections determines that you are eligible to vote.

You can choose where to vote to find he sausage that's right for you.

Meaning, no, we can't go find the polling location with the vegan sausages or the really good brownies and go vote there. If there's a bake sale at your polling location, it's because some organization associated with the local community (a Parent Teacher Association, or one of the school sports teams, or a Boy Scout/Girl Scout troop, like that) decided to organize one at that specific school or church or community center.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:32 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


The next total lunar eclipse will not occur until March 13, 2025.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:39 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Who thought this was a good name for the lunar eclipse? John Cafferty?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:40 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


When's the next total lunar eclipse on a US federal election day?
posted by clawsoon at 3:40 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


The GOP is so much better at winning and enacting their political goals it's not even funny.

The Republicans are not better at winning than Democrats. The Democrats are doing astonishingly well considering the Republican gerrymandering and electoral shenanigans. You see this most clearly in the presidential vote--in 2024 it will have been 20 years since a Republican won the popular vote.

It's just that they are an authoritarian anti-democracy party and so when they do win elections they use that power to enshrine themselves further and further into power, unaccountable to the citizens. I don't know what you do about that.
posted by rhymedirective at 3:45 PM on November 8 [49 favorites]


When's the next total lunar eclipse on a US federal election day?

Will it count as an eclipse when Yog-Sothoth shows up to swallow the sun, earth, and moon in 2024?
posted by soundguy99 at 3:46 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


I don't know what you do about that.

History unfortunately teaches a very clear and consistent lesson about how fascists are defeated. It never involves voting.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:46 PM on November 8 [49 favorites]


Sending you all my very best from North of 49 and hoping that the vicious sticky fingered throwbacks get thumped.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 3:58 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


adept256: "You can choose where to vote to find the sausage that's right for you."

I love that.

I would like an election sausage, please.
posted by kristi at 4:30 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Mcstayinschool I hope your daughters Day is going well. I've heard about long lines (1hr+) at the U. It's 45°, pitch dark, and the rain is coming down sideways in the wind! I hope they are able to wait indoors.
posted by Gray Duck at 4:43 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Election judge in a small MN precinct here. We have about 70% turnout here, but I’m not sure how to factor in new registrations to that. Crossing my fingers on turnout…
posted by pepper bird at 4:47 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


I was a precinct chair in 2018 so more active that year, but oddly I think I was less stressed and nervous than I am tonight. I don't know if it's the cumulative effect of six years of ever-worsening Republican fascism, or the fact that WE WON in 2018 AND 2020 and then Dems like Sinema and Manchin hamstrung 90% of what needed to happen, or what.

I have a morbid sense that it's all going to hell and somehow, because I was raised to believe in participatory democracy, it's my fault. I didn't stay vigilant enough, I didn't espouse my values, I didn't protect civil society like I should have. Those Schoolhouse Rock videos seemed like a promise that I'd never have a governor who allowed kids to be slaughtered at school. I must have failed them.

The grownup part of my brain blames things like wealth inequality and rent capture and social media AI force-feeding us conspiracy theories. But that part of my brain shuts off before I fall asleep so I do a lot of thrashing around at night and my cortisol levels are unsustainable.

Have a plan to meet a gang of activist friends tomorrow for brunch to take stock and touch base. Looking forward to that at least. Very glad this thread is here too--ya'll kept me alive the night of the 2020 election!
posted by helpthebear at 4:49 PM on November 8 [24 favorites]


I just want to tell you good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:51 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]


I love that I got eponysterical'd on this.

I have Tech Week this week. I will be too distracted by changing clothes every 3 minutes during a 90 minute show (feels like it, anyway) to pay attention tonight and probably not until I get to work tomorrow. Then the doom will hit.

Taking a page from Stoic philosophy, I am already expecting the worst, expecting the Republicans to take *everything*. That's my baseline. So if Democrats win *anything* it's icing on the cake.


Seconded. I gave up all hope on this a long time ago.

It's just that they are an authoritarian anti-democracy party and so when they do win elections they use that power to enshrine themselves further and further into power, unaccountable to the citizens. I don't know what you do about that.


Yeah, because this. We go high didn't do any good at all. The only thing that works is absolute lockstep, hatred and fear, and playing dirty, and the Democrats can't manage it, so we continue with "evil will always triumph because good is dumb" once AGAIN.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:52 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


In the US, if you vote in person on Election Day proper, you have ONE SPECIFIC location in the area around your registered residence that you personally can vote at. (Maybe, depending on individual state and/or county laws, you can still vote at your county's Board of Elections building.)

Are you 100% sure on that? I could swear, here in Texas, you can vote at any location within the county you reside. For example, we had a polling location in our office building which a coworker ALWAYS voted at, and it was only staffed on Election Day. He lived 30+ miles away.

We had a very contentious vote a few years ago (about something local... this was not 2016) and for whatever reason, my partner and I couldn't do early voting that year. The line was 3 hours long and the poll workers on more than one occasion would holler "the wait is only 20 minutes at [x] church to vote!"

To be fair, for the last 14 years my polling location is about three blocks away and, other than said time mentioned above, I always vote the day early voting starts*, so maybe things have changed? But, I thought where one voted was made at the state level.

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly stand to be corrected so I don't give incorrect information to anyone about voting.

*We're often the first peeps there, before the polls are open. Our chickens don't let us sleep in, so we're like, "chickens out and fed. Might as well go vote." We've also been known to buy coffee and breakfast burritos for the poll workers, because boy howdy are they doing yeoman's work.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:58 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


History unfortunately teaches a very clear and consistent lesson about how fascists are defeated. It never involves voting.


Realistically, this mostly applies to fascists who have gained power. Aspiring fascists are regularly defeated by voting. But I totally agree vis-a-vis fascists in power.
posted by snofoam at 5:02 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


In the US, if you vote in person on Election Day proper, you have ONE SPECIFIC location in the area around your registered residence that you personally can vote at. (Maybe, depending on individual state and/or county laws, you can still vote at your county's Board of Elections building.)

I think these days it's heavily determined by state and local decisions. For example, here in Los Angeles you can go to any voting center on Election Day and vote in person. They just verify you're on the rolls, give you a ballot with a QR code, and after you vote the QR code goes into the machine.
posted by kensington314 at 5:03 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


In Texas it's actually specific to the county. Some can have countywide polling options, others not.
posted by brook horse at 5:05 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


You see this most clearly in the presidential vote--in 2024 it will have been 20 years since a Republican won the popular vote.

The other way to look at that is that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Sounds like there are a few Republican candidates at the state level for Secretary of State who are promising that losing the popular vote will continue to present no impediment to declaring victory and taking power.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:07 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


? I could swear, here in Texas, you can vote at any location within the county you reside.

I think these days it's heavily determined by state and local decisions

In Texas it's actually specific to the county. Some can have countywide polling options, others not.

Yeah, my bad, y'all. Needing to vote in a specific location is not necessarily a US-wide practice, it can vary state by state. (Which just, y'know, emphasizes how FUBAR the voting situation here is, where state legislatures can gamify your voting options.)
posted by soundguy99 at 5:14 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


I know there's such a thing as a "red mirage"... is there also a "blue mirage"? I've been looking in at the Georgia polls and Raphael Warnock seems to be ahead. Should I be excited or scared?
posted by pxe2000 at 5:15 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Hmm... I was reading that Georgia had record early voter turnout, and there's a slightly higher percentage of dem voters in that early group.
posted by mochapickle at 5:23 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


I can’t figure out how to link to this specific update but from CNN:
8:07 p.m. ET, November 8, 2022
Analysis: There is no sense of alarm among Georgia GOP — Here’s why
From CNN's Jeff Zeleny
There is no sense of alarm among Georgia Republicans tonight — despite Democrats jumping to an early advantage as the first batch of votes is counted in the first hour after polls close.

Why? The ballots counted so far come largely from the record-setting early ballots cast in Georgia — more than 2 million in all.

A strategist inside the GOP war room — pouring over data for Gov. Brian Kemp and GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker — say the votes from Election Day will overwhelmingly benefit Republicans. CNN has not yet made projections on these races.

“We like what we see from our turnout today,” the GOP strategist said. “That will become apparent soon enough.”
Yet one question looms large: Will there be a significant fall-off from Kemp to Walker? And did those voters back Warnock or not vote in the Senate race at all?
posted by brook horse at 5:23 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


One of the traditions in Australian democracy is the sausage sizzle.

Pennsylvania has the Scrapple sizzle, which is the feeling you get when you know that no matter how you cook it, it has 'crap' in the middle.
posted by delfin at 5:24 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


In good news (because we all need those):

Maura Healey is the new governor of Massachusetts. Our first female governor and the first openly lesbian governor in the US.
posted by lydhre at 5:27 PM on November 8 [54 favorites]


> Statewide, the ballot returns from the R's in particular are much lower than they were at this time in 2018.

I will say that one of Trump's real superpowers was turning out the Republican vote - telling that story that really got those people out and to the polls.

With him out of the presidency and toodling away on that other wierd social network whose name I can never remember, which rarely gets a mention in any other news media, I feel like he has been de-fanged to a very great extent.

We'll see how this plays out this year, but I felt strongly the Trump's personal X-factor was the major reason for the unexpected (by pollster) bump in 2016, 2018, and 2020.

We'll see now if some of that goes away, now that he has (partially) gone away.
posted by flug at 5:27 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Good luck, we're all counting on you!

"You can vote at any polling place in your state or territory on election day." I'm assuming that "any" means "any", like as long as you live in Queensland you can vote at any polling place in Queensland, even if it's nowhere near your actual residence.
My experience as a polling official confirms this - as long as the polling booth is in the state where you're registered on the electoral roll, you can vote there, mostly on election day but there are also early voting centres set up in various places. If you're out-of-state, you need to do a postal vote, or you can visit an interstate voting centre. If you're overseas, you can do a postal vote or vote at an overseas voting centre. If you're unable to visit a polling place, you can do a postal vote or the AEC mobile polling teams may visit you if you are eg in an aged care home, prison or remote area. Postal votes can be arranged until 6:00 pm on the day before the election.
posted by dg at 5:31 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Not great news here in Florida so far, but also not at all unexpected, and nothing that changes the calculus federally. Here's to hoping things go better in states that haven't been on the receiving end of a gigantic MAGA pilgrimage over the last couple of years.
posted by wierdo at 5:43 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


As I not so gracefully enter middle age, I've noticed that a stress response of mine is to puke. Never had this happen until a few years ago. Sorry for the TMI, but I haven't been able to hold anything down all day. I should probably just shut down my laptop and watch a silly movie but I'm finding it impossible to not think about it all
posted by treepour at 5:46 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


A strategist inside the GOP war room — pouring over data for Gov. Brian Kemp and GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker — say the votes from Election Day will overwhelmingly benefit Republicans. CNN has not yet made projections on these races.

While I'm (happily) surprised that Warnock is holding a lead, I'm not going to believe a damn thing Republicans say in regards to elections. Definitely not on election day. I can see Warnock winning again and I can see the anonymous "strategist" using this as prologue for "Stop the Steal II".

fwiw, I haven't followed Warnock's campaign this time... ekeing out Blue votes in GA just seems... novel to me.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 5:49 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


treepour take a break! Here is that video of the beagle puppy barking at beagle dad.
posted by Glinn at 5:54 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Polls haven't closed here in Houston yet, but I'm not expecting great results. Lina Hidalgo, who was elected in 2018 and led Harris County through the worst of the pandemic, might get unseated by a ghastly right-wing tool of the real estate lobby, and we'll go back to business as usual (i.e., developers running everything) plus a sickening bonus heaping of fear-mongering and reactionary awfulness. Folks at the AFL-CIO here are going all out to re-elect Lina and buttress what remains of Houston's progressive politics, but when rich pricks like Mattress Mack throw half a million bucks at a time into the war chest of ghouls like Mealer, shit ain't looking good.

But we keep at it anyway. I put in a fair amount of time phone banking for Lina and other candidates on my own and for my union, on top of writing postcards and text banking for out of state stuff. One of those campaigns, supported by DSA, was "vote no on Amendment 2 in Kentucky." The amendment is fucking gross, and right now it looks like it'll fail. That's a relief.
posted by heteronym at 5:55 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


treepour, some of your fellow mefites are watching silly movies together here.
posted by valkane at 5:56 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


I do think this election does spell the likely end of polling being relevant for more than driving a horserace narrative for the media and for campaigns to build a sense of inevitability. Poll response rates are ridiculously low and very dependent on a small % of the population not aggressively screening every single one of their cell calls.

Regarding the Republicans show up on election day meme that's almost certainly true to an extent but it's not like no Democrats show up on election day and those that do almost always show up in urban areas that struggle to do election day totals in a timely manner.

So it's like Early Vote Democrats build up cushion then big election day numbers for all the rural counties that can tabulate quickly then glacially slow numbers from big urban population centers because apparently having robust election day systems costs too much or something. At each phase though you have the potential of mistaking moment in time as being representative of the end result. It's definitely possible if you have extremely good understanding of precinct level demographics and turnout numbers but it's hard to account for fluctuations in voter turnout and the continual transition inherent to new voters coming of age and x number of older voters dying off.
posted by vuron at 6:01 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


I just spent three hours writing lyrics to a bitter and sarcastic song about Republicans, only to discover, as I read them over, that they scan perfectly to "Grandma Got Run Over By A Reindeer," and now I can't get that tune out of my head as I try to write my own music for the lyrics.
posted by Daily Alice at 6:02 PM on November 8 [29 favorites]


Houston got a surprise hour long extension to voting, sort of. Provisional ballots after the seven pm regular close. That will be fun.

Also they had those new annoying printer fed machines at waist height for me, so I'm leaning over to punch D on a low grade touch screen 115 times. I'm just going to vote straight party ticket unless someone is egregiously bad. One party thinks I don't deserve rights. Fuck them.
posted by Jacen at 6:04 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Maybe debates are irrelevant too.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:05 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I dunno, watching Trump sleaze around the debate stage convinced me that he was a creeper, a bully, and a criminal. But then, I had suspicions before that
posted by Jacen at 6:09 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Hey you guys
Maura Healey is first woman and first out gay person elected Massachusetts governor (Guardian link)

Healey defeated the Republican Geoff Diehl, a former state representative who had the endorsement of Donald Trump. Her election returns the governor’s office to Democrats after eight years of Republican leadership under the popular governor Charlie Baker, who opted not to seek re-election.

posted by Glinn at 6:12 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


Jacen, those ballots are fuckin' terrible. I thought the old machines Harris County used were not great, but fine. These new ones are basically designed to make people hate voting.

I just learned the early voting numbers for some local races are better than expected, though still way too close. Oh, and I forgot to mention that I found a very loud, very friendly kitten in a rose bush tonight. We'll see what her presence in my house may signify.
posted by heteronym at 6:14 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


I have been saying what interogative mood said since last September: the Democrats will win both houses, increasing their lead in the senate.
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 6:14 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Report from my rural New York voting district (I am a Ballot Master). District is red, read out from voting machine leans BLUE.
posted by tarantula at 6:15 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


I haven't seen anything great out of Florida so far...but I also haven't seen anything unexpected yet. The results in called races are matching the partisan ratings of the (heavily gerrymandered) new districts for this year. Examples: FL-13 and 15, R candidates winning by the partisan rating for the district, not by the much closer poll numbers. But in FL-14, the D candidate is also winning by a number comparable to the partisan rating.

One potential "spin": if Rs were going to have a huge blowout, they'd start competing for or winning seats like FL-14, which is rated D+14. Instead, Castor (D) has been called the winner with 95% of the vote in, and she's leading by 13 points, which matches the partisan rating. In this one admittedly cherry-picked example, D support isn't flagging.

Florida is being talked about right now because it's an early state. So far, R gains here are due to gerrymandering more than anything else. Just my take.
posted by gimonca at 6:19 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Debates have been largely useless for a long time other than periodically putting a candidate at risk if they forget their talking points and go into maximum gaffe mode. The fact that almost no incumbent actually gets punished for skipping debates seems to reward this strategy.

Even though over 30% of the electorate are nominally independent the simple fact of the matter is the bulk of those typically vote with one party much more often than the other. There seems to be a limit of about 10% of voters that genuinely do not prefer one party over the other and honestly as politics begins to look more like tribal 'my football team is better than your football team" I actually think that's probably overstating the number of truly "independent" voters.

I think both parties understand that it's more important to increase engagement in your base than drive to the middle. Plus only a small percentage of the electorate ever watch debates other than the presidential debates every 4 years. Might as well schedule more rallies to throw red meat to the true believers and attend some fundraisers than chase after someone who might suddenly change their mind.
posted by vuron at 6:22 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Guys I'm so excited about Maura Healey. She's just such an advocate for the people and I am so so happy. I got a high five from her at the 2019 Boston pride parade and I haven't washed my hand since...
posted by danapiper at 6:27 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


Good news out of Rhode Island. I know it's not exactly a purple state but there was a pretty close House race and a not-totally-safe governer race. Both now called for the Dems.
posted by geegollygosh at 6:29 PM on November 8 [18 favorites]


I do think this election does spell the likely end of polling being relevant for more than driving a horserace narrative for the media and for campaigns to build a sense of inevitability. Poll response rates are ridiculously low and very dependent on a small % of the population not aggressively screening every single one of their cell calls.


I answer every "Potential Spam" call I get, and half of them are polls, often push polls, but still. I don't know who is honestly answering these poll calls other than people who still have landlines and other nutty people like me. It definitely skews towards the weirder and older populations.
posted by Slinga at 6:31 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


I had the rare Double Citizen Day by voting then serving on a jury. Trying to stay optimistic. It’s interesting seeing the perspectives of the jurors shift this week from “ugh why are we here” to “well, this is interesting.”

Maybe if more people participated as citizens we wouldn’t have the glaring sad percentages of eligible voters sitting out elections (among many other serious systemic issues).
posted by glaucon at 6:38 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


pretty close House race

Magaziner (D) is leading Fung (R) in RI-2....that beats the polls that were coming out all year. Is it called?
posted by gimonca at 6:40 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


I don't know who is honestly answering these poll calls other than people who still have landlines and other nutty people like me.

I answer every one as well because my phone doesn’t have a spam filter and I see 20 different doctors who all change which office number they call me from on a whim and I don’t want to miss a “we’re rescheduling that appointment you scheduled for 6 months out (as that was the earliest available appointment)” call. I’ve never once gotten a poll, though I have gotten a lot of non-partisan asking if I have a plan to vote. I am curious if as an under 30 pollsters assume I’m not going to vote and don’t poll me.
posted by brook horse at 6:44 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


In FL, I've seen ads for DeSantis just about every Hulu commercial break. I've never seen a Crist ad that I can recall, though they used to run an DeSantis ad that had a soundbite of Crist saying "THANK GOD FOR JOE BIDEN" really loud, and if you weren't paying attention you'd think it was a positive ad, so maybe that counts.
posted by credulous at 6:47 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


I'm not sure what % of American still have landlines but anecdotally it seems like a small number of households with people younger than 50 have them and I guess those areas where cell phone coverage is still shoddy at best.

If you have a cellphone I don't know who actually picks up random phone numbers unless you are in something like outside sales where a high percentage of your incoming phone calls are going to be random phone numbers. End result of this is that telephone polling which used to be the gold standard of polling methods are seeming sketchy even if their methodologies are supposedly +/- 3% based upon sample size and that's before you get into the sketchy push polling nonsense. Not sure how to fix it because other methods like internet polls are arguably even more prone to error.

The 538 methodology of basically weighted averages across all polls and hoping for a wisdom of the crowd to deliver a spread of likely results seems to be about as good as we can expect but 2022 seems to be increasingly looking like a wash where Republicans have made improvements in the house largely tied to rampant gerrymandering rather than a true wave.

In an environment where the incumbent party almost always loses seats during the midterms this seems like a lackluster result especially given some of the other headwinds like inflation that have been driving a negative perception of the Biden administration.

Total hot take here but I wonder if the lawsuits to block the college loan forgiveness program might've actually backfired against republicans. I assume they mainly wanted to block it because getting free stuff is popular (and thus needed to be blocked because Biden must be blamed) but at the same time someone blocking you from getting free stuff isn't going to make people who are looking at double digit inflation particularly happy with you either.
posted by vuron at 6:49 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]




And if anyone needs any emotional support munchies, there's always my mother's brownie recipe, which I shared with you after you elected Biden in 2020.

Thank you, orange swan! I immediately saved it to my recipe planner. Still haven't made it yet, because we don't really do sweets, but I will absolutely savor it when we do make it.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:59 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I’ve seen AOC and others say that in places like Florida, Dems and progressives are generally no where to be seen. Like the number is Spanish-speaking Republican outlets is far more than Democrats and progressives, on both traditional and social media.

Also I think there’s still too much of a presumption of some sort of unification among immigrants, and among non-white Americans. Seems like a not insignificant portion of immigrants like Desantis’ immigration stunts. How to address that?
posted by girlmightlive at 7:02 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


gimonica, Magaziner is giving his speech right now. Whew!
posted by wenestvedt at 7:02 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I am so relieved that Fung lost here. Still disappointed that McKee (gov) won the primary. I didn’t love him as my mayor and I didn’t love him as lt. gov turned governor. (Inside baseball sentence for the rest of my RIers - If the late Bob Healey had his way, we could have someone better after Gina moved up.) Still, better him than her. (Her being Kalus, not Raimondo.)
posted by Ruki at 7:03 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Seems like a not insignificant portion of immigrants like Desantis’ immigration stunts. How to address that?

That is curious, because a good percentage of the victims of Desantis' Martha's Vineyard stunt were Venezuelan, who were literally trying to escape a "Socialist regime" as Desantis would put it. And a good chunk of those R-leaning immigrant voters in Florida are Venezuelans and Cubans. Feel like something hinky is going on here. Cognitive dissonance, sure, but it just... feels more off than that.
posted by ishmael at 7:09 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


It's rich to say this but Kalus (from Illinois and...California?) coming to run in RI was a total carpet-bagger.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:10 PM on November 8


Hi politics friends! I'm not watching the returns yet. Gonna be a long night so I'll tune in later. Super happy about the results here in the Bay State. The ballot questions here were interesting this year. Four of them. A new tax on the wealthy, a reform affecting dental insurance (people have that?), a change to how liquor licenses are regulated, and a provision to allow undocumented folks to get driver's licenses. I went yes, yes, no, yes.

NECN has a great breakdown of all the New England races and if you scroll down to MA you will find...

MA Q1 – New Income Tax Level
8% reporting

No
50%
113,110

Yes
50%
111,028

MA Q2 – Dental Medical Loss
7% reporting

Yes
69%
146,233

No
31%
65,534

MA Q3 – Business Liquor Licenses
7% reporting

No
58%
122,391

Yes
42%
88,110

MA Q4 – Driver's Licenses for Undocumented
9% reporting

No
51%
116,467

Yes
49%
110,143



I'll be up late just watching those, so I hope you have plenty of ice.
posted by vrakatar at 7:13 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


(Inside baseball sentence for the rest of my RIers: in the years that I worked at the Staples in Barrington, every time the cool moose stopped by, he was wearing a tuxedo.)
posted by The Great Big Mulp at 7:17 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Cognitive dissonance, sure, but it just... feels more off than that.

i suspect immigrants not liking later immigrants is much like people who move to lake communities in northern michigan - the last bunch of people to move there are often the most vocal about using zoning to keep newcomers out
posted by pyramid termite at 7:18 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


I mostly just want Fetterman to win

Yeah I want to see him pull it off, too. It’s such a… you know what of bad luck to be up against that fucking guy and to be hit with health problems.
posted by atoxyl at 7:20 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Yeah, that's the one that could still break my heart. Oz is such a fuckweasel, and I completely hate the idea that ableism would tank Fetterman and, urgh, I just want that one to go the right way.

I guess I'm feeling cautiously optimistic? I mean, it's not going to be a great night for Democrats, but I was expecting a bloodbath, and it doesn't look like it's going to be that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:25 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


I do think that unfortunately these appeals to baser instincts just work. There may be an understanding of the reasoning but when they believe Dems are making them gay it “feels” better to vote for a guy that “seems” tough.

I don’t know, people seem to be really into bullying and bullies right now.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:25 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Making generalizations about any demographic block is definitely a risky move but there does seem to be a desire among many to take some research based insights and project them onto entire groups and reduce them into monoliths. This is especially risky when you are trying to project generalizations to a demographic block as diverse as the Hispanic population of Florida. There seems to be some assumption that all PoC will vote the same and even if there are nuances that get added related to the Cuban-American voters of a certain age bracket tending to be extremely conservative there seems to be no level of nuance related to other large hispanic populations in Florida cluster in both South Florida and places like Orlando.

I don't know that Democrats are necessarily falling into a trap of not trying to engage with various smaller population blocks within the Hispanic community or just getting to the point where they realize that due to near constant influx of snowbirds plus apparent tendencies towards more conservatism within some traditionally more democratic leaning populations that Florida is more of a stretch goal for state wide races and competing for a ton of +X R leaning Congressional seats has a poor ROI.

I don't want to completely give up on Florida particularly for Presidential elections because Democrats winning Florida makes it largely impossible for a Republican win but I think focusing on AZ, NC, GA, NV and not giving up PA, MI and WI is the safer play than putting a lot of focus on competing in extremely expensive FL media markets.
posted by vuron at 7:29 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


But Fetterman looks way tougher than Oz!
posted by wenestvedt at 7:29 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I'm choosing to take Bennett's win in Colorado as an optimistic note, early evening evidence that it's just a regular in-party/out-party dynamic and not an unanticipated, un-pollable bloodbath.

Doesn't point in the direction of any answers for the loss of the democracy overall, but I'll take what I can get today.
posted by kensington314 at 7:30 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


That's what I don't really get.... Who can look at the Republican party and find anything worthwhile to vote for?? Like.... Do they have literally anything that isnt evil or corrupt? Sigh.

Cruelty, it sells
posted by Jacen at 7:30 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


I've been watching MSNBC and it's great if you want to feel good about Democrats chances. Not just because they have that leaning, but they have been putting out a lot of data that show Democrats overperforming in individual races.

Their bottom line: the Republicans have been making pickups in newly gerrymandered districts and the Democrats have been outperforming elsewhere.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:32 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Do I dare hope that Lauren fucking Boebert goes down?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:39 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


That's right, Frisch is leading Boebert in CO-3. And I was pooh-poohing him earlier this year. I'm sorry--all is forgiven!
posted by gimonca at 7:42 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Sadly probably not, lots of the vote in is from her weak areas. But there's lots of other races to feel good about.
posted by Justinian at 7:42 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I did not dare to get my hopes up about any of the Iowa races, even the ones that were polling pretty well, and the results are bearing that out - it looks like the Republican incumbents are going to win the Senate race, the Governor race, and my House district. Well. Still holding out hope for the important races elsewhere.

Let's hope that they never figure out how to upload your brain into a computer forever, because if they do, Iowa's still going to be represented by Chuck Grassley in 2322.
posted by Jeanne at 7:43 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Lujan Grisham (D) just won New Mexico governor. Beat the polls pretty well, too.
posted by gimonca at 7:44 PM on November 8 [18 favorites]


AP just called Virginia-7 for Spanberger.
posted by gimonca at 7:45 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


HEY AUSTRALIA !!!

I'll see your sausage and raise you an Election Cake.
posted by vrakatar at 7:45 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Feels like Oz was a goner even with the Fetterman health issues. Warnock vs Walker is going to be close but I think Warnock will likely either win outright once the remaining areas of Atlanta start coming in (shades of 2020) but we might end up being in runoff territory. I'll be interested in the AZ/NV matchups but overall those seem moderately promising despite some warning signs about election day turnout in Las Vegas.

I think with gerrymandered seats the keeping even a narrow majority in the House was a massive reach for Democrats but by a similar token I don't think it's going to be likely that McCarthy is going to be coming in with a massive amount of support for immediately trying to impeach Biden either. I'd love to keep both the House and Senate but if I had to pick one to lose I'd lose the House so we can still continue to confirm judicial nominations, etc.

I wish we could somehow push back against the Roe v Wade decision in the next 2 years but hopefully Republicans realize that pushing for a nationwide ban would be a catastrophically bad move even if it was guaranteed to be fillibustered or vetoed. But who knows they seem to be wanting to ride the ultrareactionary train until it starts hurting more than it helps.
posted by vuron at 7:49 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Sharice Davids just won KS-3 by a big margin. Republicans tried to gerrymander her out of her seat; didn't work.
posted by gimonca at 7:50 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


I didn't really think we could win the governor or senate races, Jeanne, and the polls were looking pretty grim for Bohannon. I'm hoping that Axne can hang on to her seat and that Mathis can defeat Hinson. (I hate Ashley Hinson to an irrational degree.) And apparently the Dems have picked up a couple of seats in the state legislature, not that it will make much difference.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:50 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Fingers crossed for a D pickup in the Sangamander (IL-13).

What I find really interesting is that out of the 700-some who cast ballots in my downstate Illinois precinct, there seem to be a net of a few dozen who voted against every D on the ballot (even the widely-admired Comptroller Mendoza) but for the Workers' Rights Amendment, which was the subject of wall-to-wall right-wing attacks with very little pushback.

I don't quite understand how that happens. But it does make me suppose that these people might be, in some incomprehensible-to-me fashion, persuadable.
posted by Not A Thing at 7:51 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


There seems to be some assumption that all PoC will vote the same and even if there are nuances that get added related to the Cuban-American voters of a certain age bracket tending to be extremely conservative there seems to be no level of nuance related to other large hispanic populations in Florida cluster in both South Florida and places like Orlando.

I just wonder how long Desantis support is maintained in the sizeable Venezuelan community if he keeps victimizing Venezuelan migrants.

pyramid termite mentioned a theory that could explain it, but I imagine the right-wing media machine is definitely a bigger driver in terms of deliberately shifting opinions, as they are in the country in general.

Maybe there's a class distinction as well.
posted by ishmael at 7:51 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


If nothing else, my girl Tish James is the projected winner for a second term as New York State's AG, so she can continue to kick righteous ass. And Kathy Hochul is the projected winner as NY State Governor; winning the election outright after serving as governor following Cuomo's departure (a departure prodded by my girl Tish, as luck would have it).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:51 PM on November 8 [19 favorites]


I don't want to completely give up on Florida particularly for Presidential elections because Democrats winning Florida makes it largely impossible for a Republican win but I think focusing on AZ, NC, GA, NV and not giving up PA, MI and WI is the safer play than putting a lot of focus on competing in extremely expensive FL media markets.

Despite having to live with the consequences of the national party being stingy with resources here, I don't actually disagree with this line of thinking.

Still, it's pretty fucking painful that Miami-Dade has gone from D+30 or so in statewide/national races in 2016 and returning a decent margin against the shitheels in 2020 to DeSantis of all people winning the county by a decent margin.

As I said before, I'm hopeful that the self selection of the MAGA crowd to Florida has improved things elsewhere. And yes, thankfully they have mostly been self selecting themselves into areas of the state that were already Republican leaning, so it hasn't really affected Congressional races as much as it might have. DeSantis' unconstitutional map (ironic that we would have had a better map if the independent state legislature crowd got their way) has done way more to change things in that regard.

Anyway, that's enough from me about Florida. It's already gotten way more attention than it deserves. We'll all be better off if the rest of the country forgets we exist so that DeSantis' national ambition is suffocated before 2022. With luck, we can take the rest of the MAGA crowd off your hands, too.
posted by wierdo at 7:52 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Colorado-7 just called for Pettersen (D), another race that was close-ish in the limited polling.
posted by gimonca at 8:00 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


I answer every "Potential Spam" call I get, and half of them are polls, often push polls, but still.

I answer all of my calls because I own a business and I only got one poll! It was a hilarious push poll (started normal) and then it was like "knowing that Democrat X DESPISES the police, does that make you more or less likely to vote for them" and I would just laugh and say "more". This poor woman was bored out of her mind asking me if it bothers me that Democrats are arriving with Satan's army to drive up inflation or whatever.
posted by Emmy Rae at 8:01 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


CNN is projecting Democrat Elaine Luria to lose Virginia District 2, that's Virginia Beach and Norfolk. Luria served in the January 6 committee, which she was aware might hurt her chances for re-election. She'd turned the seat in that district in 2018.
posted by mochapickle at 8:02 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


This is total Iowa inside baseball, but our complete nightmare of a homophobic Senate President, Jake Chapman, has lost his seat in the state legislature. I don't think it's a total surprise, because he was redistricted into a swing district, and he has said a lot of hateful, highly-quotable things attacking public school teachers, among other people. But yeah. That's a victory.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:02 PM on November 8 [40 favorites]


Worried about Ohio tonight and in general. It’s hard because there’s definitely a lot of fuckery here regarding gerrymandering but I’m also concerned with the state Dem leadership. They don’t seem to run great candidates and I can’t remember the last time they attempted to drive turnout with a good statewide issue.
posted by girlmightlive at 8:02 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


No matter what else happens, Mastriano losing means we don't have to leave Pennsyltucky so my wife can keep her access to birth control. That's what counts as a good result in this timeline.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:07 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


i think michigan's doing fairly well so far - the governor is probably winning and proposal 3 for reproductive freedom is looking very likely to pass
posted by pyramid termite at 8:09 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


One nice thing regarding Desantis and Florida is that Trump seems determined to either destroy Desantis or make him kiss the ring. Both outcomes could dramatically undermine his chances in 2024 just like rolling over in 2016 seems to have killed any hope of Cruz seeming to be a viable nationwide candidate. Trump's continued desire to retain the spotlight combined with his rampant criminal behavior seems to be helping color any perception that Republicans might possibly moderate their stance. Desantis will need to decide relatively soon if he's all in for 2024 (likely) or if he'll avoid Trump and if he goes all-in how does he position himself in relation to Trump. Go even more qanon and risk alienating the middle or seem like a solutions focused moderate and hope you might be able to win enough primaries to push Trump out of the way. Both are terrible positions to be in for Desantis because they either damage his brand or they risk making him nonviable in the general election.

Trump seems to think that declaring his candidacy is a get out of jail card that at a minimum stops the clock for 2 more years (not a completely absurd assumption consider Biden will want to avoid seeming like the DoJ is overly political) so I'll be shocked if he doesn't declare before Christmas to pre-empt any sort of testimony. Of course Trump declaring sucks the oxygen from the room since most of the likely frontrunners seem to want to position themselves as "trump minus the extremely irrational and disruptive behavior" but lots of Republicans like their original flavor dumpster fire.
posted by vuron at 8:10 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Agree with you completely, girlmightlive. I had exactly one person knock on my door here in Ohio. Anecdotally, but friends in Cincinnati and southwestern OH said the Tim Ryan presence was nilch, from their perspective.

I really wanted Nan but outside of a handful of well-to-do and in-the-know friends, nobody seemed to really mention anything about her.

Dem leadership atrophied hard starting around 2008 and we need seriously improved door knocking and get-out-the-vote hard work to get done if we want any chance at all of climbing out of this.
posted by glaucon at 8:10 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Trump seems to think that declaring his candidacy is a get out of jail card that at a minimum stops the clock for 2 more years (not a completely absurd assumption consider Biden will want to avoid seeming like the DoJ is overly political) so I'll be shocked if he doesn't declare before Christmas to pre-empt any sort of testimony.

If the midterms are a wet fart for the fascists, the folks with marginal seats are also less likely to go gung-ho in defense of Trump. Add that to McCarthy’s weak leadership and potentially thin margins, and they’re likely to be pretty useless for the next two years.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:16 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Trump seems to think that declaring his candidacy is a get out of jail card that at a minimum stops the clock for 2 more years (not a completely absurd assumption consider Biden will want to avoid seeming like the DoJ is overly political) so I'll be shocked if he doesn't declare before Christmas to pre-empt any sort of testimony.

*Grins Evilly* I'm not sure that it would stop the clock on state lawsuits, though, would it?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:19 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Someone above mentioned the good PA governor news, but I'm pleasantly surprised that this map shows Shapiro leading in some rural counties. Linking to the local Fox for the map.
posted by sepviva at 8:19 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


In DC, an increase in the tipped minimum wage has passed overwhelmingly despite a torrent of dark money from National Restaurant Association and others.

My new councilmember will also be a genuinely good guy, defeating an anti-bike lane real estate stooge in a rich, white ward.

I'll take the bright lights where I can get them tonight.
posted by ryanshepard at 8:30 PM on November 8 [24 favorites]


Chabot (R) lost here in Ohio! Not expecting that at all, considering everything else in Ohio is dead red and gerrymandered to hell.
posted by pepcorn at 8:36 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Finally some good Ohio news, Landsman defeated Chabot for the US House. Chabot has been in Congress for nearly 30 years, last time he was defeated was in 2008. His district is so gerrymandered he doesn’t even bother to campaign in the city.
posted by girlmightlive at 8:39 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Some good local news for Twin Cities peeps: Mary Moriarty for Hennepin County Attorney and Dawanna Witt for Hennepin County Sheriff both have probably won. Excellent news on both points. Moriarty in particular had a tough race, and her opponent was getting a ton of financial support from....somewhere. Moriarty won anyway as a smart progressive beating a candidate campaigning as a pro-cop centrist (or worse).
posted by gimonca at 8:41 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Chabot----a white whale!
posted by gimonca at 8:42 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Damn. They called the Texas governor for a spectacular Republican shitbag. This increases the odds that moving out of the state/country would be beneficial to my health.
posted by Jacen at 8:46 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Ohio 1 result is crazy. Did they try to gerrymander an additional seat and somehow make that seat more competitive? I'm not anticipating Dems holding the House but these random pickups here and there make the path for a potential Speaker McCarthy more and more treacherous.
posted by vuron at 8:46 PM on November 8


How how HOW is Herschel Walker leading? I just can’t wrap my mind around it. Cannot. The man who held up his fake badge during a debate???

So glad to have this community keeping me sane tonight. Thank you.
posted by sucre at 8:50 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]




It looks like the republicans aren't going to get their supermajority in the Wisconsin State Legislature, which means that, along with Tony winning the governor and Josh Kaul probably winning attorney general, Wisconsin will be terrible but not a hellstate quite yet. It also means that I will need to really hit the doors for the spring supreme court election, where we have a chance of flipping the balance of the court, which would be a real game-changer. We could end up with new districts in 2024!

I really hope Mandela Barnes pulls it out, but it doesn't look good. There is a good chunk of nice white people who just loove voting for old white guys. The fact that it is even close though shows the difference between 2016 and 2022. in 2016, the Wisconsin Dems were basically moribund. They would spin up a bit of a GOTV effort in the last 6-8 weeks before an election. Now, organizing is a year round activity. There are permanent paid organizers across the state. And this makes all the difference. We can still do better...but the people knocking on doors and making calls across the state are what made these victories possible.
posted by rockindata at 9:01 PM on November 8 [31 favorites]


Gen Z has arrived in Congress: Maxwell Frost, 25, wins Florida House seat: Frost beat Republican Calvin Wimbish, 72, to represent a district in and around Orlando, after making gun violence a focal point of his campaign. (David K. Li, NBC)

Community organizer Maxwell Frost won his Florida race for Congress on Tuesday, NBC News projected, making him the first member of Generation Z to reach the House of Representatives.

Frost, 25, beat Republican Calvin Wimbish, a retired 72-year-old Army Green Beret, to take the Orlando-based 10th Congressional District seat now held by Democrat Val Demings.

posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 9:03 PM on November 8 [40 favorites]


Texas is a challenging state for an attempt to convert to a real battleground state. Demographics are good long term but there are a lot of challenges to taking advantage of that.

a) the Hispanic population is not a monolith even in the RGV area
b) also the Hispanic population is young (tendency towards less engagement) on top of lower levels of engagement in general
c) there has been a large influx of people moving to Texas to escape high CoL states since you can get a really big house for a somewhat reasonable price plus no state income tax. However property tax rates and sales tax negate some of those supposed tax advantages
d) a lot of people in Texas are either employed or make a living providing goods and services to resource extraction industries like Oil & Gas, etc and as a result there is a fear about "green agenda" causing job losses
e) most of the urban centers have been gerrymandered to negate the amount of congressional representation for democrats
f) tribal politics is very much in effect so you support your "team" plus also people want to identify with winners so they often self-select to support the candidate more likely to win regardless of candidate quality or even agreement with policy.

Regarding Warnock vs Walker, try to think back to 2020 and how glacially slow some of the Atlanta precincts took to tabulate results. I'm not sure we'll get an official number tonight and there might be automatic recounts and a runoff seems increasingly likely. If it does go to a runoff it gives more chances to Walker to implode prior to the runoff so there is that. Personally I think Warnock will reel in Walker over the next few hours since the last time I looked it seemed like he was trending ahead of Biden in some of the key counties. Walker just doesn't have a lot of pockets of outstanding votes.
posted by vuron at 9:03 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Community organizer Maxwell Frost won his Florida race for Congress on Tuesday, NBC News projected, making him the first member of Generation Z to reach the House of Representatives.

At long last, we have Kingdom Hearts representation in Congress.

(Not counting chickens before they're hatched, but WOW I want Kari Lake to be defeated and abjectly humiliated tonight.)
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 9:08 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Looks like our library bond passed! Yay! Our brutalist 1960s library will finally get the renovation it desperately needs.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:09 PM on November 8 [20 favorites]


Wes Moore wins governor’s race in Maryland (Brian Witte, Associated Press--link via PBS)

Democrat Wes Moore was elected Maryland’s first Black governor Tuesday, defeating Republican Dan Cox in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1.

Moore’s victory flips a governor’s office from Republican to Democratic. Of the 36 governor’s races this year, Maryland and Massachusetts represented the best chances for Democrats to regain a governor’s office at a time when the GOP holds a 28-22 edge in governor’s seats. Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is term limited.

Only two other Black politicians have ever been elected governor in the United States — Virginia’s Douglas Wilder in 1989, and Deval Patrick of Massachusetts in 2006. Democrat Stacey Abrams would become the nation’s first Black female governor if she wins her Georgia rematch against Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 9:09 PM on November 8 [14 favorites]


Also wrt Texas, there's this from the Texas Tribune: Churches are breaking the law and endorsing in elections, experts say. The IRS looks the other way. A few of the churches here are outside of Texas and a couple are (Black) churches stumping for Beto, but a lot of the white, suburban megachurches are fairly openly endorsing Republicans as God's ordained up and down the ballot. It's pretty hard to fight that.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 9:12 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


Apologies for quoting myself here, but....

My somewhat snarky prediction: Democrats will end up with 220 seats in the House, exactly what they have today, no more, no less

Kornacki was just on MSNBC saying the model from their 'decision desk' is now predicting 219R in the House, plus or minus 13.

It could happen!
posted by gimonca at 9:15 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


So the whole Senate is probably going to come down to a runoff in Georgia again? That's going to be ugly.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:18 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


sad/ragefilter:

Stacey Abrams concedes Georgia gubernatorial race to Gov. Brian Kemp (Jeff Amy, Associated Press--link via PBS)

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1st woman elected Arkansas governor (Andrew DeMillo, Associated Press--link via MSN.com)
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 9:19 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Lots of encouraging news tonight, but it's nowhere near over, of course. Senate is still very dependent on PA, GA, NV, much as it was at the beginning of the night.

Then again, Republicans just lost Texas-34, the one they won in that oddball special election.

I'm going to bed. When I wake up, I expect to see a news blurb about Lauren Boebert applying for political asylum in Hungary!
posted by gimonca at 9:24 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Good news from Michigan! Prop 3, making abortion a state constitutional right, is projected to pass.
posted by marlys at 9:34 PM on November 8 [26 favorites]


I think Warnock took the lead again but the chances he'll clear the 50% + 1 margin seem low since the Libertarian is likely blocking. I'd love for him to clear the bar tonight/tomorrow but cautiously optimistic about a runoff election since there would be a bazillion dollars thrown at it
posted by vuron at 9:35 PM on November 8


As stated above, how can Walker be winning in GA?

Wtf Georgia?
posted by Windopaene at 9:39 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Heisman Trophy winner for UGA
Name recognition
Conservative
Anti-abortion (rules for thee)
Failure to realize he's likely suffering from CTE
Special agent badge
posted by vuron at 9:46 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


I had a tab open to a livestream on YouTube of ABC news doing election coverage and they just said something that somehow slipped my mind :

"These counts are votes counted today. No mail-in, or provisional ballots are being counted yet. Usually day-of votes lean heavily Republican..."

So, like, is it possible Dems might just absolutely slaughter Rs once all the votes are fully counted? Or am I being naively optimistic as I am wont to do?
posted by revmitcz at 9:51 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Are we doing chat for this one?
posted by Peccable at 9:55 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I don't think that the provisional ballots or late-arriving mail-ins are usually enough to swing elections, unless things are already incredibly close. And every state does things differently, but typically they can pretty quickly count the early votes that have arrived by election day. I don't think there's any chance this is going to be a blue wave. But if Democrats kept the Senate, that would be huge.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:56 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


10-12 years ago, Missouri was pretty much a 50-50 state. You could have Democrats sweep all statewide offices (as they did in 2008, save just one) and Republicans control both the state House & Senate by reasonable-ish margins.

Since then, and particularly during the presidencies of Obama (sceery black guy etc etc) and then Trump it has swung pretty hard right. Like Republicans now control every statewide office AND have veto-proof majorities in both the state House & Senate.

With that background, we had about the expected outcomes in the big Missouri statewide races: Eric Schmitt (R-Douchebag) won the Senate race handily, a Republican won the race for state auditor by a large margin (this was the one statewide office held by a Democrat until just now), etc.

But: I noticed Democrats pulling off narrow wins in quite a long series of very close state House districts that had previously been held by Republicans. Most were like 51/49 or even closer. But the D came out on top of pretty much every one of these razor-close races. A surprise for sure, in a year that was supposed to be a huge Trump-led Republican sweep.

And above and beyond that, it looks like the (problematic) Marijuana Legalization Amendment will (probably) eke out a victory - right now it's 53/47 with 87% of the vote counted. Even if it somehow manages to lose in the end, it will still be basically 50/50 at worst in a supposedly Deep Red state.

On the Kansas side, Sharice Davids (D) pulled out a handy win (55/43) in what might have been a tight House race. Laura Kelly (D) looks to have won re-election as governor (50/47 with 94% of votes counted - it's not called yet but looks pretty kinda safe for Kelly?). Also a constitutional amendment to allow the legislature to easily overrule governor-issued regulations is losing by a hair, but could still easily go either way.

One downside is career jackass Kris Kobach (R) looks to be winning the Attorney General race (50.5/49.5 with 94% of vote counted - so we can still pray for a miracle).

In short: This is NOT what a Republican blow-out looks like. This looks very much like status quo with perhaps even a slight, moderate breeze running towards Democrats here and there.

Much is going to depend on exact candidate selection and other such details. (Example: Georgia Senator should have been a blow-out for Republicans but by managing to choose about the worst imaginable candidate, again, the Republicans just might manage to lose it, again. Great job primary voters!)

Also FYI Talking Points Memo is chiming in with "It’s early still, but one thing is clear this Election Night: Republicans are not seeing the sweeping wave of victories that the party was hoping to secure."

In the context of recent decades, this is about the best the incumbent party can possibly hope for in a Midterm year. Just avoiding a real blowout is h-u-g-e and a bunch of things just m-i-g-h-t turn out even better than that.
posted by flug at 9:56 PM on November 8 [28 favorites]


NBC just called Pennsylvania for Fetterman. I think that's my cue to go to bed.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:57 PM on November 8 [42 favorites]


Montana, which has expanded to two House seats, District 1 currently has Democrat Monica Tranel at 51.5% vs Republican Ryan Zinke at 44.8% with 29% of the votes counted.
posted by ShooBoo at 9:58 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


F YEAH FETTERMAN! Smell ya later, Oz!
posted by sucre at 10:01 PM on November 8 [14 favorites]


I gotta say, this night is turning out to be considerably less depressing than expected.
posted by biogeo at 10:12 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]


So, like, is it possible Dems might just absolutely slaughter Rs once all the votes are fully counted? Or am I being naively optimistic as I am wont to do?

I don't know about "absolutely slaughter" but the mail in votes in 2020 were highly D-leaning: Democrats took a risk to push mail-in voting. It paid off (Guardian)

Some states don't count any mail in votes until election day: A reminder that the Republican-led state legislatures of PA, AZ and WI could have ensured that we'd have complete (or nearly complete) election results tonight by allowing early/mail votes to be canvassed before today.

These two things, while not very surprising to people who work with complicated, messy systems; feed right into the belief that the previous election was stolen or fraudulent, based on a oversimplified view of vote counting.
posted by meowzilla at 10:16 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


saw the Fetterman news and was nervously trying to confirm...meanwhile, GA is still nerve-wracking...

States that have voted for a state constitutional right to abortion or reproductive autonomy include Michigan, California, and Vermont. (sources: reddit threads and NPR state results)

red-to-blue flips (there have been enough for me to start losing track):
TX-34: Vicente Gonzalez declares victory over contested South Texas congressional seat (Matthew Choi, Texas Tribune)
IL-13: Nikki Budzinski (NPR Illinois results)
PA-17: Chris Deluzio (NPR Pennsylvania results)
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 10:25 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


So, like, is it possible Dems might just absolutely slaughter Rs once all the votes are fully counted? Or am I being naively optimistic as I am wont to do?

If you look at it from the perspective of how Democrats should have performed based on historical factors (president’s party loses seats in midterms, unpopular president, high inflation, etc), I’d argue Democrats already did.
posted by kat518 at 10:26 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


Whitmer projected winner in Michigan governor race.
posted by clavdivs at 10:28 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


Re: red-to-blue flips, I think you can add OH-1 and NC-13.
posted by kat518 at 10:28 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I worked for the County Elections office (the Auditor, here in Washington) this election. I started out as a Democrat observer for the primary (knowing there would be Republican observers, and trying to balance that), and then applied for a job for the General Election.
The team I was on closed out a fairly busy ballot box. We locked it up at 8, collected the ballots and sealed them in containers, and collected a few late ballots (“Thank you for voting, but I’m sorry, we’ve closed the ballot box at 8. I can take your ballot and turn it in, and our canvas board will determine whether it gets counted.”)
It went great. There were no untoward “observers”, and the several cars that pulled up in the last few minutes thanked us for being there, and were glad they got their ballots in on time.
Thanks to everyone who voted, wherever you are!
posted by dbmcd at 10:32 PM on November 8 [29 favorites]


Governors update: ABC is calling for Evers in Wisconsin and Whitmer in Michigan
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 10:35 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Fetterman
posted by mbo at 10:48 PM on November 8 [19 favorites]


Definitely looking forward to all the inevitable Gritty/Fetterman memes over the next few days.
posted by vuron at 10:50 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Cautiously optimistic here in Pennsylvania. Fettermen just declared victory, and FOX news and ABC just called the race. The AP hasn't though. It looks like Summer Lee won as well, which is great. Mastriano never had a shot.

Overall, this is a historically bad performance for the Republicans given how the party out of power usually performs in midterms, especially considering the fact that the news is filled with stories about inflation and crime. Consider that in 2010 and 1994, the last two midterms during a Democratic presidents first term, the Democrats got absolutely crushed. It looks like nothing of the sort is going to happen tonight. It seems like long term trends are running against the GOP even though such progressions never proceed in perfect straight line. The end of the current GOP can't come soon enough, though. Even a narrow GOP capture of the House ensures that they can potentially threaten both the global economy and the integrity of the 2024 elections.

Still, I'm hoping that Mandela Barnes can somehow pull off a miricle and close the narrow gap between him and that asshole Ron Johnson. That would provide much consolation.

Edit: Sorry about the typos. Very late.
posted by eagles123 at 10:54 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]




Here's a really damn fun & important metric : GOP Governor candidates who either refused to say if they'd have certified Biden's 2020 win and GOP Sec of State candidates in states Biden won.

(spoiler : they all lost, or - in the remaining 3 cases - are very much on track to lose)
posted by revmitcz at 10:58 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


Claire McCaskell pointed out that if Warnock v Walker goes to a rematch but Dems have already picked up enough seats that control of the Senate isn’t riding on the race, then many moderate Republicans will no longer feel obliged to vote for Walker or show up at all.
posted by carmicha at 11:09 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


The margin in the house is going to be razor thin at best for McCarthy if things stay as they are currently tracking (219-216) and I'm not sure he'll actually get the Speaker job since the infighting will be epic and the crazies are going to demand a bigger say. And that's with FL doing a ridiculous gerrymander and NY being blocked from doing one and lots of states using bad maps.

Any of those variables change and Pelosi would be cruising and it's not completely out of the question she retains her position as is. I guess it's time for Republicans to do their once a decade soul searching about why they should moderate in order to appeal to more demographics that they then ignore because resentment politics is easier than actually coming up with workable policy.
posted by vuron at 11:13 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Spouse woke me up when the race was called for Fetterman and gave me the good news about Shapiro and Summer Lee as well.

There are no words for how relieved I am right now, especially over the PA Governor race.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 11:19 PM on November 8 [14 favorites]


After being somewhat chastened in 2020, I wisely kept my dooming to myself. But man, it's looking like such a good night at this point. None of the Democratic reach targets panned out, but neither did the Republican ones. Fetterman won, Kelly and to a lesser extent Cortez-Masto looking strong, so even if Warnock fall short (now or in December) Democrats will retain the Senate, which is huge for nominations and preventing election fuckery. Still a small chance of Dems keeping the House, which would be staggering. Most importantly, a raft of election deniers are headed towards a loss, including Mark Finchem in Nevada and (surprisingly) Kari Lake in Arizona. Hopefully bills targeting election subversion and the debt ceiling can pass in the lame duck to minimize the damage even a narrow Republican House majority can do.

revmitcz: "So, like, is it possible Dems might just absolutely slaughter Rs once all the votes are fully counted? Or am I being naively optimistic as I am wont to do?"

Didn't this happen in 2018? Seemed like a disappointing night at first, but ended up +41 Dem seats after the complete count.
posted by Rhaomi at 11:21 PM on November 8 [17 favorites]


In hyper local news, I am delighted that the effort to reopen our main park boulevard to cars (it having been pedestrianized since the start of COVID) is looking like it has been resoundingly rejected.
posted by alexei at 11:26 PM on November 8 [34 favorites]


And now... here it is, your moment of zen
posted by revmitcz at 11:31 PM on November 8 [16 favorites]


If that horrible piece of shit Boebert lost, that's all I need tonight.
posted by maxwelton at 11:58 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Pretty sure that "after" photo is just of them praying. But yeah, if she loses her seat it just might mean there is a god after all.
posted by biogeo at 12:01 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


Careful about reading numbers in AZ. There is not enough vote in to be sure about Kelly, and Lake is still the favorite despite being behind in the current count. The order in which AZ counts means lots of R vote comes late. And it could be days before Maricopa finishes counting for a host of reasons.

Anyhow I really have to go to bed, I can’t stay up until the results are complete. All in all better than I expected, but not than I hoped.
posted by nat at 12:06 AM on November 9


I'm going to call it a 'kissing your sister' election. The Christofascists didn't get what they wanted, we didn't get what we wanted, and we're all going to fight out the whole thing again in two years.
Or to put it another way: if this was metaphorically the Siege of Helm's Deep, the kamikaze orc with the demolition charge just ran in and turned out to be a dud. Siege continues, Isengard didn't win, Rohan still besieged.

So it goes.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:11 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]


For anyone trying to follow AZ results, Garrett Archer is worth reading. He does a good job of explaining where various vote dumps came from and how they line up with expectations for the overall races.
posted by nat at 12:16 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Am wondering if pollsters have accounted for Republican antipathy to vaccines and masks disproportionately killing their supporters.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:41 AM on November 9 [14 favorites]


This outsider was very gladdened to wake up and read these results. What happens with you matters for us all, and the fact that 6 years on you are still pushing back, step by small step, without disintegrating or being dragged down to the level of your opposition is a model of what's right and worth striving for.

From this occultation of Uranuses to the next step in ridding your orbit of assholes, and beyond, I wish you continued strength, courage and solidarity.
posted by protorp at 1:01 AM on November 9 [31 favorites]


MetFilter: considerably less depressing than expected
posted by chavenet at 1:07 AM on November 9 [50 favorites]


With the red wave passed, it seems like it should now be feasible for the DoJ to finally go after Trump and his accomplices with charges for the numerous crimes they have committed. And perhaps as soon as possible, before he makes any kind of campaign announcement that puts his legal issues into the court of public opinion, instead of in front of a jury.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:32 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]



Forever grateful to the wackos running for school board in my area who helpfully labelled themselves "unmask our children" on the ballot**. And put up signs all over town with their eyebrow-raising slogan "education not indoctrination" so I already knew their names. Thanks for labelling yourselves so I could vote for the other candidates, guys!!


Pleased to inform you that these fuckers went down in flames yesterday <3 <3 <3
posted by subdee at 3:27 AM on November 9 [90 favorites]


If that horrible piece of shit Boebert lost, that's all I need tonight.

Yeah, but that even bigger piece of shit Marjorie Taylor Greene got re-elected.

But that actually gives me time for a targeted-voter postcard campaign I've thought of - the only thing I've ever even SEEN her do, at all, is harass people like David Hogg or AOC. This is a chance to follow her actual Congressional activity - the bills she supports, the bills she writes, the committees she serves on - or her lack thereof, and then when you get that, start sending postcards to her constituency pointing out, "....Is she actually DOING anything to really represent you?"
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:50 AM on November 9 [12 favorites]


Oh - and it sounds like a lot of measures to protect abortion rights up for vote in various states all won.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:03 AM on November 9 [30 favorites]


Well, as an old, confused, retired guy who collected a check from the federal government said in 1984, it's Morning in America.

Still don't know House or Senate.

Fetterman win was a big whew for team D. Happy to see Wisconsin is still maybe, maybe in play, not getting my hopes up too high. No idea what's going on in Nevada. My guess is that a Georgia runoff on 12/6 decides the whole thing, but I could be pleasantly surprised.

My personal spreadsheet is telling me that there are about 49 uncalled House races out there, 17 of those in California. There is some localized bad news for Democrats in there, probably also some good outcomes as well. A gut count tells me the final result looks like 214D, 221R, but a truthful answer is we don't know yet.

I don't like the look of the uncalled upstate NY races. A couple of other races, I don't like how they're breaking (MD-6, OR-5, AZ-2, IA-3, maybe IL-17). The other three Arizona races could all break D. California remaining races I'm counting 11D 6R at the moment, which includes a couple of D pickups. Would have been nice to get Montana-1, came close, still uncalled, probably ends up R. We still need California, Arizona, Nevada (and New York) decisions, and every race counts. Any race could be a tipping point.
posted by gimonca at 4:24 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


MTG is from a blood-red rural corner of GA. Of course she got re-elected. I’m certain her constituents think she’s doing a fantastic job of sticking it to the libs.

I am more saddened to see how wide the gap is between Kemp and Abrams. I had hoped the cities might give Stacey Abrams a shot, but it isn’t looking to be the case.
posted by Fleebnork at 4:25 AM on November 9 [21 favorites]


This is a chance to follow her actual Congressional activity - the bills she supports, the bills she writes, the committees she serves on - or her lack thereof, and then when you get that, start sending postcards to her constituency pointing out, "....Is she actually DOING anything to really represent you?"

I think the fact that she was just reelected kind of suggests that logical appeals don't matter at all when it comes to swaying voters who are consumed by ideology and hatred for the other.

On preview, what Fleebnork also said.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:26 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


Holy shit, Michigan flipped their legislature!!!. (Probably, senate might be a tie, with Dem Lt. Gov breaking the tie)

I just can’t express how excited I am that the state I grew up in actually has a government that actually represents its people. My Dad, who has never been involved in any politics, canvassed for months for the redistricting ballot measure a couple years ago- and here it paid off!!! Lots of jubilant texts going around right now.

Thanksgiving is going to be just jubilant, I can’t wait.
posted by rockindata at 4:37 AM on November 9 [51 favorites]


A pretty good morning in Minnesota. Gov. Walz got re-elected easily over Dr. Scott "Horse Pills" Jensen. (This may be my last opportunity to say that!)

Angie Craig won MN-2, our only contested House seat, which had been redistricted to some fairly different geography (although it was a similar swing district before). She's a bit more centrist than I like, she was ready to throw Biden under the bus this summer, but a win is a win, I'll take it.

There was widespread gloom before that the DFL might lose several statewide offices. As of this morning, the DFL candidate has a lead in all of them, although a couple are real squeakers at less than a point. My favorite politician of all time, Atty. Gen. Keith Ellison, may actually have survived a brutal onslaught from Republicans by a tiny margin--I admit I was really tempering my hopes there.

The DFL is keeping the Minnesota State House, which journalists are reminding us often changes hands in a midterm. And, the DFL may actually take control of the Minnesota State Senate.

Now, some of these outcomes are super tight, but if they hold up, the DFL could win, well, everything.
posted by gimonca at 4:40 AM on November 9 [18 favorites]


This headline ("Slavery rejected in some, not all, states where on ballot") is, on the one hand, appalling and eye-popping to see in 2022. But on the other hand, the AP correctly referring to forced prison labor as slavery is ... refreshingly honest? There are a lot of euphemisms when Americans talk about prisons, and certainly about prison labor which, even when paid, is basically slavery. Using the right words in the headline matters.
posted by uncleozzy at 4:43 AM on November 9 [53 favorites]


Here's why I'm happy about the Wisconsin governor's race (okay, one of many reasons): the extremist R candidate for Wisconsin governor, Michels, runs a construction company that tends to submit low bids and get a lot of City of Minneapolis contracts for street work.

This year, people have started to notice that all those trucks and digging equipment with the red MICHELS logo on them are associated with the extremist Republican candidate for governor just over the river. Including the equipment right in front of my house, as we speak. If that guy had won, I would not have been able to take it. Now he's just some asshole in a hard hat again, which is slightly more tolerable.
posted by gimonca at 4:49 AM on November 9 [11 favorites]


The news about Lauren Boebert potentially losing her seat has me thinking about my grandmother, who grew up in (what would become) her district.

My grandmother could be called a "difficult woman" with all the positive and negative associations that go with that loaded phrase. But the political part of that was that she was a rock-ribbed New Deal liberal in a conservative world. She used to joke that she and the other 6 Democrats in Boise, Idaho would go out for dinner every other Sunday. She died right before the pandemic, and when I went out to help clean out her house, I made sure to take her "Warning: Attack Democrat" sign and a selection of her old political buttons, like the one with Pacman eating GOP elephants and the one that said "Jane Wyman was Right." (I'm young enough that I had to look that one up, but laughed myself silly when I did.)

We were back in Colorado this summer to inter my grandmother's ashes in the small mountain town where she spent her childhood and you could tell something was different about the political mood. Paonia's always been a weird blue dot in a sea of red. It's where my grandmother picked up her New Deal liberalism, and it's the home of some important voices of a specific mountain west left-of-center blend of hippiedom, environmentalism, and social libertarianism that adds up to a sort of rugged collectivism. KVNF and High Country News were both founded there and still have offices in the town. It's the sort of place that has weird artists' collectives and is probably one of only a handful of places on the west slope of Colorado where it's more or less ok to be gay or trans and out about it. So I didn't think too much of it at the time, but this was definitely the first year that the Delta County Democrats outnumbered the Delta County Republicans in the 4th of July parade, and that's not counting the separate anti-Dobbs protest group that marched.

God I hope this result holds up. I just love the idea of grandma Lois getting one last posthumous laugh over the petty bigots that were the bane of her existence for 90 years.
posted by firechicago at 5:11 AM on November 9 [84 favorites]


I worked as an election judge yesterday (sounds fancy, but it’s just what we call our poll workers). I was dreading it, but it didn’t turn out to be too awful in terms of adversarial poll watchers. We had one R and one D watcher, and the R sure seemed much more interested about our process for checking in black voters, but didn’t actively do anything to impede democracy. It was the busiest election I’ve ever worked (824 at our location), and I barely got to eat. The voters were fine; there’s always this small percentage of them who just walk in MAD, and it always boggles my mind. Mad at how Illinois verifies identity, mad at the voting system we use, mad at the pen. I dunno.

Anyway, since I left home at 4:45am and got home at 8pm, I didn’t have it in me to look at results or participate in this thread last night. All things considered, as noted several times above, I’m fairly pleased with what I’ve seen. My governor defeated a challenger who compared abortion to the Holocaust. Because of redistricting, this year I’ve been moved from a blood red congressional district to a more competitive one, and it seems likely I may end up with a gay weatherman democrat as my rep now! It looks like the race is still officially not called, but he’s claimed victory.

I don’t have big smart stuff to say. I’m just glad not to be devastated this morning. I am also glad I took a second day off work.
posted by obfuscation at 5:16 AM on November 9 [69 favorites]


I almost walked out of the polling station with the pen. I didn't realize it was still in my hand until I had walked from the voting booth to the ballot box, and I'm very proud of myself for just handing it to the ballot box supervisor instead of panicking and trying to return it to the voting booth myself.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:21 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


My wife gave me a lot of sass about how slowly I bubbled in my ballot :/

Disappointed in the NC results, but I also didn't really have high hopes. Republicans claimed two state Supreme Court seats.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 5:27 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


We had a woman who came later in the day to vote and bring back the pen her husband had stolen earlier. It was very charming. :)
posted by obfuscation at 5:39 AM on November 9 [23 favorites]


Among other bright spots this morning, I'm seeing a lot of stories about how Trump cost the Republicans victory bigly.
posted by Gelatin at 5:39 AM on November 9 [36 favorites]


I hope the donkey party takes a lesson from the fetterman victory. we need candidates that seem like normal people and communicate well, not policy wonk weirdos with ivy league pedigrees. the right can overcome that by promising to hurt the enemy, but when your platform is helping everyone you need to seem like your benevolence isn’t a cover for the schemes you’re actually cooking up behind the scenes. anyway so happy about fetterman, who i’ve been a fan of since he got elected mayor of braddock. he’s not perfect but i know his political aims are sincere and not self serving
posted by dis_integration at 5:56 AM on November 9 [30 favorites]


we need candidates that seem like normal people and communicate well, not policy wonk weirdos with ivy league pedigrees.

Why not both? (Fetterman went to Harvard)
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:58 AM on November 9 [50 favorites]


Fetterman fucking rules. I've been terrified this last month that, after the years and years I've followed his political career, voting for him at every possible step along the way, he'd get undone by Oz being a piece of shit, and now that that's not happening I'm halfway between a fistpump and a sigh of relief.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 6:00 AM on November 9 [36 favorites]


I actually think the "Ivy League policy wonk" thing is a red herring. Fetterman has a masters in public policy from Harvard. Rob Sand, who looks like he may (god willing and the crick don't rise) be the only Democrat to hang on to any significant office in Iowa, plays up the Iowa farm kid thing, but he went to Brown. Voters don't care if you went to the Ivy League. They care if you seem sincere and can communicate your values.

It seems like there are two big messages the Democrats need to take from this: abortion is a real issue that people care about, and young voters are engaged when you give them issues to be engaged about.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:02 AM on November 9 [46 favorites]


I think the key part of the phrase "policy wonk weirdos with ivy league pedigrees" is the "policy wonk weirdo" half, not the "ivy league pedigrees" half. It's like how there are a lot of great playwrights who all went to Yale, and then there is a stereotypical Yale Playwright Guy who churns out absolute unlikable dogshit that gets attention for the pedigree despite being profoundly uninteresting stuff. (Niche comparison, I know.)

I still have haunting memories of the guy I worked with on the Clinton campaign in 2016. He was a Politics Professional: he knew the name of every DC insider, spent most of his time talking shit about his perceived rivals within the campaign, and if you asked him what Clinton's greatest achievements as a politician were, he'd cite fifty extremely obscure moments in NY Senatorial history, none of which had to do with things that made anybody's lives better and everything to do with some arcane manipulation of process.

When I think "policy wonk weirdo," I think that guy. Seemingly no moral compass, no interest in making people's lives better, simultaneously talked about "what the American People want" in ways that involve citing two dozen charts and held an aversion, if not outright contempt, to actually talking to an American Person. Convinced that he and he alone was broadly relatable to the nation; absolutely baffled that nobody found him relatable at all.

It's not just a Democrat thing, but there are an awful lot of Dems like that. You can go to an Ivy and come out thoroughly decent, but that's not the kind of person the phrase refers to.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 6:19 AM on November 9 [27 favorites]


The night turned out better than I feared, nationally on down. My candidate for U.S. House (Gabe Vasquez, NM-2) won by about 1,015 votes. But my candidate for state House lost by 12! She is in recount territory, but I'm not holding my breath. We do keep the state House Dem either way.
posted by NotLost at 6:21 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Champaign County Politics! Last election cycle, we elected a Black county clerk for the first time. He's competent and charismatic and the county GOP has been frothing at the mouth to smear and unseat him from Day One.

He kept his office last night, beating the awful election-denying candidate whose face was on billboards all over town.

Not only that: the vile scheming county board member who was particularly behind the attacks (including a last-minute frivolous lawsuit because someone saw some clearly-marked test ballots in a worker's car) looks like he's going to be unseated by a young Democratic woman.

In fact, BOTH incumbent vile GOP reps from that county district have been unseated by Democrats, pending the counting of whatever mail-in votes remain.

I am distinctly pleased.
posted by daisystomper at 6:22 AM on November 9 [28 favorites]


Fetterman also mocked Oz, which is the only appropriate response.

I also feel compelled to add that Fetterman is great, I’ve been an early supporter of his, but he definitely has some shitty foreign policy positions (eg, Palestine) and we should acknowledge that he is cool while still pushing him
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:24 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]


gay weatherman democrat

I know that guy! Or to be more honest, I'm a friend of a friend of that guy. Glad he squeaked through, this is the one race I was super personally invested in this year. I think he'll do well.

(This is Eric Sorensen in IL-17, for other people's benefit.)
posted by gimonca at 6:28 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


I guess I don't think the issue is policy wonk weirdo-ness, either. Bill Clinton was a total frigging policy wonk, and he didn't have that problem. Barack Obama was a University of Chicago law professor, and he didn't have it either. It's a real problem, but it's a different problem. It's about condescension towards voters and seeming like you think you're better than them and know what they need better than they do. (Republicans always think they know what people need better than their constituents do, but they're better at not seeming that way.) You can be a total wonk and not seem like a superior, out-of-touch asshole.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:29 AM on November 9 [16 favorites]


> This is a chance to follow her actual Congressional activity - the bills she supports, the bills she writes, the committees she serves on - or her lack thereof, and then when you get that, start sending postcards to her constituency pointing out, "....Is she actually DOING anything to really represent you?"

I think the fact that she was just reelected kind of suggests that logical appeals don't matter at all when it comes to swaying voters who are consumed by ideology and hatred for the other.


Wait, hear me out.

You wouldn't make it a lib-vs-MAGA thing. You'd make it an MTG-vs.-anyone else thing. Focus on "is MTG actually doing anything for Georgia?" You know - "she sponsored this bill about something in Wisconsin, and she did this about something that happened in Illinois, and she's all over Twitter talking about House members from New York....is she even paying attention to Georgia?"

And then look at her voting record on bills that would have helped - "She voted 'no' on these bills that would have helped you..." Or even better, "she missed this vote because she was making a TikTok video. Does she even WANT to do her job?"

Honestly, even if all that happens is she loses the primary in 2024 and they send a different Republican to Congress, that'd be an improvement. That's what I'm gunning for with this.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:32 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]


When I think of the "Ivy League policy wonk" phrase, I think of people like Paul Tsongas and the rest of the neoliberal Democrats from the 1980s. "Our support for workers on health and safety issues does not mean support for unions that demand wage increases without regard to productivity increases," and all that remorseless "you are lazy and the numbers say you deserve what you're going to get" rhetoric. Reagan had similar shitty policies, but he wrapped them in folksy "I'm your buddy" charm.
posted by clawsoon at 6:33 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


I was talking to my co-workers this morning about how Oprah came out for Fetterman at the last minute, and thank goodness! Did it make the difference? Maybe!
posted by Glinn at 6:34 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


> Among other bright spots this morning, I'm seeing a lot of stories about how Trump cost the Republicans victory bigly.

The world's biggest pissbaby was covering his bases/managing expectations on something called NewsNation yesterday:

“Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all."

So there you have it. Not his fault!
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:36 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]


Why not a policy wonk weirdo with an Ivy League degree who communicates well?

In other Illinois news, yeah, the congressional and executive races went well; I was particularly glad that vile homunculus Thomas DeVore didn't pull an upset in the attorney general race. (He didn't seem to have much of a chance, but that's what I thought about you-know-who in 2016.) But the one that I was really worried about was the Illinois Supreme Court race; there was some concern that the GOP would try to take enough seats to control the court and ban or restrict abortions. Looks like that's not gonna happen.
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:37 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]




CNN: Early exit polls show women and voters of color shifted toward the GOP

Reading it, it looks like virtually every group shifted toward Republicans compared to 2018. They are choosing to highlight women and PoC in the headline.
posted by clawsoon at 6:51 AM on November 9 [18 favorites]


> But while Republicans in the House won the support of nearly all of the voters who oppose abortion rights, they also got the support of a quarter of the voters who said it should be legal.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:52 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Why not a policy wonk weirdo with an Ivy League degree who communicates well?

It’s pronounced “Boot-Edge-Edge”
posted by leotrotsky at 6:53 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


It’s pronounced “Boot-Edge-Edge”

I might actually vomit.
posted by Gadarene at 7:02 AM on November 9 [11 favorites]


Reading it, it looks like virtually every group shifted toward Republicans compared to 2018. They are choosing to highlight women and PoC in the headline.
I’d also wait until we get firm numbers on things like turnout. 2018 was huge because a lot of people disliked Trump, so I’d believe that most if this is reflecting who was fired up to vote this year rather than an actual change in parties. Democrats had a long year of media coverage supporting Republican narratives and faux-leftists spending more time depressing voters than anything else.
posted by adamsc at 7:02 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


It’s pronounced “Boot-Edge-Edge”

Boot-Edge-Edge seems to me like someone who fits in the Paul Tsongas mold. Good communicator, sure, if what you want to communicate is that your life is going to be McKinsey'd.
posted by clawsoon at 7:06 AM on November 9 [10 favorites]


My state (Iowa) is so dumb. We reelected an 88 year old guy for senate and he's just... so old... and will die or retire. My state is nothing, seriously nothing, but "they have an R, they got my vote."
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:18 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


I guess I'm doomed to die in a state where my fellow Texans clearly value assault rifles, high property taxes and naked corruption more than anyone's actual life.

After 38 years of voting straight Democratic ticket in every election, I'm just... tired. Even before 2016, I've block-walked, donated (the maximum amount allowable for several election cycles, which has made a serious dent in my so-called retirement savings), phone banked, volunteered, did postcards to voters, you name it.

Nothing matters. Nothing moves the needle. Despair is not a great motivator.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 7:20 AM on November 9 [33 favorites]


I remember earlier this year I clicked on a youtube video, it was an msnbc thing. They had a legal scholar as a guest, I was very interested in what her opinion would be. Mika began by asking her a question, then Joe interrupted saying, 'before you answer that ...' Then he told some story about a mythical past where republicans and democrats danced around the maypole hand in hand. This went on for about five minutes. Then he said 'thanks for joining us, it's good to see you!'

I had to scroll back to see what I missed. Mika asked a woman a legal question, Joe interrupted and told a fantasy tale, then told the woman to fuck off. She didn't say anything! She was just there in the corner of the screen waiting for her time to speak and was suddenly told goodbye.

So I just watched a clip of Joe sitting between Jen Psaki and Mika and he's treating them like furniture again. Is anyone else seeing this?

Joe Scarborough needs to shut the fuck up and let women talk. Or just go away. Sick of his shit.
posted by adept256 at 7:20 AM on November 9 [38 favorites]


But while Republicans in the House won the support of nearly all of the voters who oppose abortion rights, they also got the support of a quarter of the voters who said it should be legal.

Would be interesting to see this in a state-by-state breakdown. My theory is that pro-choice voters in choice-safe states would be more willing to vote Republican than in states with bans or where there was a heavy risk. Voters, as a whole, seem to respond much more to direct threats than to threats with even a slight abstraction.

That played out here in Kansas. Choice won with 60 percent in the amendment vote. And, to a low information voter, abortion seems to be safe for now. Laura Kelly is winning with only 49%. 14k vote margin. And all the other statewide races went for the Republicans. Many of them not even close.

On a side note, I'm surprised Kansas had a landslide in the abortion amendment vote, but it was somewhat closer in Michigan. I was thinking MI would have at least equaled our percentages.
posted by Teegeeack AV Club Secretary at 7:20 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Among other bright spots this morning, I'm seeing a lot of stories about how Trump cost the Republicans victory bigly.

That’s weird — I can’t imagine there could be any problems with swearing fealty to the only president to be impeached more times than he held office, who lost the popular vote twice, and who has offered tips for sexual assault into a hot mic.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:22 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


And then look at her voting record on bills that would have helped - "She voted 'no' on these bills that would have helped you..." Or even better, "she missed this vote because she was making a TikTok video. Does she even WANT to do her job?"

The problem with that is that "Annoying the libs" as a qualification for office didn't arise in a vacuum. It comes as an outgrowth of two generations of Republican messaging that Government is inherently incapable of doing anything good. Convincing her constituents that she isn't doing anything for them doesn't mean they're not going to vote for her, because they're not voting for someone to do anything for them.
posted by Etrigan at 7:26 AM on November 9 [33 favorites]


Good morning from Maryland, where we just elected our first black governor, first woman of color and immigrant lieutenant governor, first black attorney general, and first woman comptroller!

Interestingly, there seems to be some confusion about how many black governors there have been in this country. The consensus seems to be that Wes Moore is now the third African-American elected governor, after Douglas Wilder (VA) and Deval Patrick (MA).

Both Oscar Dunn and P.B.S. Pinchback served as acting governor of Louisiana for short periods during Reconstruction, but neither won election to that office. And David Paterson became governor of NY after Eliot Spitzer resigned, but withdrew from reelection in 2010 in favor of *barf* Andrew Cuomo.
posted by Ben Trismegistus at 7:27 AM on November 9 [33 favorites]


Be extremely cautious about reading anything into exit polls. They are day-of polling which tends to select for more conservative voters (and by default misses all early and absentee voters) and I'm not sure that the number of people going out from a polling station during election day and being willing to answer an exit poll is a particularly accurate sample group in the best of circumstances. I think exit polls primary (maybe only) role is to give cable news broadcasters something to talk about in between polls closing and results coming in.
posted by vuron at 7:28 AM on November 9 [22 favorites]


On a side note, I'm surprised Kansas had a landslide in the abortion amendment vote, but it was somewhat closer in Michigan. I was thinking MI would have at least equaled our percentages.

The messaging in Michigan had almost nothing to do with "Is abortion good? Y/N".

Signs in my neighborhood:
Proposal 3: Too confusing, too extreme (that was the entire sign -- not even what Proposal 3 is)

Protect girls sports (a later addition, based on a lie that the word "sterilization" in the proposal meant that trans kids could get gender-affirming care without notifying their parents)

Why are you killing me? with a picture of a baby only appeared in the last week or so.

The messaging in Michigan was never about abortion because they saw what happened in Kansas.
posted by Etrigan at 7:30 AM on November 9 [21 favorites]


Joe Scarborough needs to shut the fuck up and let women talk. Or just go away. Sick of his shit.

I refuse to watch him because he is a camera hog that loves to hear himself speak.
posted by sundrop at 7:39 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


CNN: Early exit polls show women and voters of color shifted toward the GOP

Early exit polls show news media desperate to drive views, is willing to continue to undermine democracy by reporting incomplete statistics which, if the full picture differs, just gives fascists more cover for claiming the democratic process was fraudulent
posted by a faithful sock at 7:52 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]


From this balcony seat, the mid-term results seem mildly encouraging on the whole, with some trainwrecks avoided and modest gains made. There were some disappointments such as Stacey Abrams and Val Demings losing and Marjorie Taylor Greene winning (wtf Georgia), but no crushing losses. Mehmet Oz, Sarah Palin, and Kari Lake all lost their bids, and Lauren Boebert lost her seat. Herschel Walker got a draw, but we'll hope he loses the run-off. I'm still keeping an anxious eye on The New York Times House and Senate tracker, but there's grounds for hope those may turn out okay.

These mid-terms were never going be definitive -- it was a battle, not the war -- but looking at them as a barometer of the progress made towards beating back the batshit and/or fascistic element, I'm taking heart.
posted by orange swan at 7:56 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


Apparently the 18-29 y/o vote was something like 3:1 for the Dems.

So it seems the GOP might have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for those meddling kids.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:57 AM on November 9 [74 favorites]


Just remember it's next election's House that gets to decide whether to accept POTUS election results.

All we have to worry about now is two years of no court appointments, endless impeachments, and if McConnell takes the chair, endless impeachment trials.

I really am happy for people who feel relief today but all I can feel is shame. I realize to some extent that's just as silly as pride in one's country since I didn't choose it, but here I am. I'm ashamed of my representative and senators. I'm ashamed of my neighbors. I'd run away and claim to be from somewhere else if I could pull it off but I probably can't.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 8:04 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


I'm glad the Democrats won and most importantly now they can stop asking me for money. You can do it on your own, guys, you just proved it! How about giving me some money instead?
posted by kingdead at 8:10 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]


how often are Drudge Report headlines worth waking up to?

REPUBLICANS IN SHOCK
HOUSE CONTROL THISCLOSE
DEMS HOLDING SENATE
TOXIC TRUMP IN MAGA MELTDOWN
FOXNEWS FREAKS
posted by philip-random at 8:13 AM on November 9 [17 favorites]


and Kari Lake all lost their bids

We definitely do not know this. I hope so, but Hobbs’ current lead is looking awfully thin and there is a lot of remaining R vote. You need to wait on the AZ races.
posted by nat at 8:14 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Oooh, TFG is reportedly "livid" and "screaming at everyone".
posted by orange swan at 8:15 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]


I love mefi and I love these threads, but the doomerism seems wild to me given the facts.

Despite gerrymandering, despite massive coordinated efforts at voter suppression, despite the fact that the presidential party typically loses seats in the midterms, AND despite the fact that midterms have lower turnout that typically favors republicans... the GOP FAILED, y'all.

They failed to produce a red wave. Many of their gerrymandering efforts backfired. Abortion rights were protected. Slavery was outlawed in several states. They lost the state legislature entirely in at least one key battleground state (Michigan), which will impede their ability to fuck with the 2024 elections. Every 'election truther' gubernatorial candidate in races that have been called lost.

All the GOP's structural advantages and fuckery were not enough to produce the outcome they wanted. Those senate pickups are locked in for the next 6 years. Abortion rights were protected in the place they were in biggest doubt.

We did pretty good.
posted by zug at 8:16 AM on November 9 [93 favorites]


Minneapolis StarTribune this morning:

"The stunning upset gives the party complete control over state government next year. Democrats maintained control in the House and reclaimed the majority in the state Senate for the first time in six years."

Further prediction: the Strib editorial board is going to have a sad over this. Snif, snif.
posted by gimonca at 8:16 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]


Imagine thinking that the group most potentially impacted by a Roe v Wade reversal (18-29) wouldn't be worked up by this. Also the ones looking around at Boomers trying to go full "fuck you I got mine and probably won't live to experience the worst of a climate crisis". Add in issues like college loan forgiveness, minimum wage, marijuana legislation, etc and the increasing secularization of the US and it's clear that Republican policies must start to shift. Yes people tend to get more conservative as they age but they still tend to deviate some from their initial starting position rather than make a major idealogical shift baring some sort of extreme radicalization event. Any +20 or more demographic advantage in 18-29 is a major hurdle to clear.

The shift in power from Boomers to Zoomers/Millenials is going to be interesting to watch. While Gen X will slowly shift into the older age brackets there are less of them than Millenials/Zs so as the Boomers age/die off the big bulge in the belly of the snake related to the baby boom will begin to inevitably shift.

Republicans have gotten so reliant on their core constituencies of 65+ voters + evangelicals + trump style radicals to get them wins that they haven't been able to moderate their policies to appeal to younger demographics but long term a platform of "hey we really like the orange guy and we want to roll back a bunch of civil rights progress" isn't going to cut it. Yes there is definitely radicalization of white males in the 18-29 but I think they are a very very vocal minority if any of the voter demographics shown thus far are accurate.
posted by vuron at 8:16 AM on November 9 [14 favorites]


Ginny Hogan: I think I speak for all of us when I say thank goodness we can finally begin the 2024 presidential campaign.

Also by Ginny:

* I’d call this election a “pregnancy scare” (expected a red wave but it hasn’t come yet).
* Wow bummer Elon’s tweet didn’t save the Republican Party.
* “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” ok then explain Ron DeSantis.
* “House Republicans” is the appropriate term for them, they are the type of republicans you’d get if you were too lazy to look at a menu.
posted by Wordshore at 8:20 AM on November 9 [25 favorites]


I just saw steve bannon and it seems like the federal government's offer of letting him sleep indoors might do him some good.
posted by adept256 at 8:28 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]


but looking at them as a barometer of the progress made towards beating back the batshit and/or fascistic element, I'm taking heart.

This is where I am too. It also suggests to me that people are still vigilant/angry about 2016-2020 - turnout was good. Youth turnout was good. And all of this happened in a time when the GOP could turn to inflation and rising crime numbers (yes, I know it's a small rise of still relatively low numbers, but it's effective for the GOP regardless). And yet it appears that whatever gains might happen in the House will be small.

Obviously it's hard to predict the next 2 years, but my hope is that the GOP will embarrass themselves in various ways in the House, some basic bipartisan bills will manage to get passed, the economy will recover somewhat, and hopefully Biden won't run again and the Dem's will pick someone who can generate a bit more enthusiasm.

Still causing me a bit of stress: the AZ Governor's race, though it seems like most of the votes left to be counted are in blue counties?

Biggest reasons for relief:

-Fetterman won, despite all the bullshit coverage his stroke recovery got. I am still irked that even NPR focused all their coverage on how it "worried voters he wasn't ready" and zero coverage of doctors affirming that he's in a totally normal/fine spot for someone that many months out from a stroke.

-Wisconsin governor Tony Evers held on to his office. Literally the only thing keeping the GOP from going hog wild in that state, so phew.
posted by coffeecat at 8:30 AM on November 9 [23 favorites]


I completely avoided election news last night because, well, like all of us, I have scars. This was the first place I came to check and it was...not that bad? Not a blue blowout, but not a red one either.

Poor Texas still didn't get rid of Abbott, I was really pulling for Beto but that state is fucked so many ways by gerrymandering and corruption that I'm not sure what would save it. A really demoralizing place to be a Democrat (much like FL). Here in CO it mostly went as expected, though if we do get rid of Boebert that would be amazing.

I told a friend last night that the thing I tell myself is, no matter what happens it won't change what I'm doing. We have the same fight today we did yesterday, we've just not had as bad a setback as we feared.
posted by emjaybee at 8:41 AM on November 9 [22 favorites]


Despite gerrymandering, despite massive coordinated efforts at voter suppression, despite the fact that the presidential party typically loses seats in the midterms, AND despite the fact that midterms have lower turnout that typically favors republicans... the GOP FAILED, y'all.

All extraordinarily good things, but in a winner take all system with one party that has no shame and is willing to take whatever opportunities they can to permanently enshrine their advantages and damage their opponents, even all that might still not be enough hence the continued doom and dread. No amount of holding back a complete red wave matters if McCarthy can still hold impeachment hearings. No amount of defying expectations means anything if McConnnell can still block judicial nominations. Horseshoes, etc.

I'm glad things so far haven't been nearly as bad as they could have been, but unless you know for a fact that the GOP is going to renounce all that fascism stuff because it's clearly a losing proposition amongst voters, I don't really think we have much to celebrate other than getting through another election.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 8:46 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


It's really sad for me here in SW Florida to see such great Democratic Party wins across the country and see how this state just utterly failed. As has been noted, the state Democratic party here is a complete joke. The establishment all lined up behind political wind sock Charlie Crist, the worst candidate in my 15 years here, and got the ass-kicking it invited -- after three state governor races with margins of 2 percent or so, he loses by 20.

As always, though, it's worth listening to Jason Garcia, the best reporter in the state, who (of course) is no longer employed by a news organization. He notes that DeSantis outspent Crist by $250 million. No typos -- that's a quarter of a billion dollars. And note the "outspent" -- his actual spending was almost $300 million.

As Garcia said, "a quarter of a billion dollars buys a pretty good wave-making machine."

Seems like a lot for a governor's office -- but not when you realize it's more about building a launching pad for the presidency.
posted by martin q blank at 8:47 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]


I mean in WI it’s gone from “fearing for my life” to “I can still fight here” so that’s a win. One of the very specific things I was thinking about: my partner is on Medicaid seeking gender-affirming surgery and there was a very real chance that their opportunity to do so would be wiped away by this election.

So yeah, I’ll celebrate that. Resilience is something to be celebrated too.
posted by brook horse at 8:51 AM on November 9 [54 favorites]


I just wanted to tell you all good job. We were all counting on you.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 8:53 AM on November 9 [37 favorites]


Seems like a lot for a governor's office -- but not when you realize it's more about building a launching pad for the presidency.

See also: the $130m Greg Abbott spent in Texas.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 8:53 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


The shift in power from Boomers to Zoomers/Millenials is going to be interesting to watch. While Gen X will slowly shift into the older age brackets there are less of them than Millenials/Zs so as the Boomers age/die off the big bulge in the belly of the snake related to the baby boom will begin to inevitably shift.

*begin standard Gen-X ironic joke mode*

Also, no one ever pays attention to us anyway so of course we'd be skipped over in demographic polls in favor of Millennials...

*end standard Gen-X ironic joke mode*
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:07 AM on November 9 [23 favorites]


Another thing to celebrate is that we actually did get through another election without (so far) the kind of violence that some were fearing. This is not Jan 6th, Part II.
posted by brainwane at 9:08 AM on November 9 [42 favorites]


Yes although Jan 6 2021 was a little while after Nov 3 2020. I am a little concerned about things building as we lead up to the Georgia runoff.
posted by saturday_morning at 9:17 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Seems like a lot for a governor's office -- but not when you realize it's more about building a launching pad for the presidency.

See also: the $130m Greg Abbott spent in Texas.


Greg Abbott is not running for president. He knows too many Republicans view physical disabilities as moral failings, and is happy with his Texas fiefdom. In my opinion.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 9:18 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


I haven’t spent a ton of time watching these people but it seems like Greg Abbott is less charismatic than DeSantis, and that is saying something
posted by kat518 at 9:19 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


Democracy asserting itself—and voters asserting that they do, in fact, like democracy—doesn't mean that democracy here isn't threatened or at risk, or that the threats we've been facing won't escalate, but it's pretty fucking heartening nonetheless.

(Especially given that there seems to be a correlation between "openly hating the notion of a democratic nation" and "getting your ass unexpectedly handed to you" right now. Not everywhere, but in most places.)

This isn't over and it's all still scary, but god damn this makes me want to fight.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 9:20 AM on November 9 [16 favorites]


Minneapolis StarTribune this morning:

"The stunning upset gives the party complete control over state government next year. Democrats maintained control in the House and reclaimed the majority in the state Senate for the first time in six years."

I always am but I am extra proud to live in and work for the Great State of Minnesota today. My (state employee) union has a contract negotiation listening session today and I'm thinking the mood will be VERY positive.

I have some people in my life who are very confused today. They said this was supposed to be a red wave, a referendum on the completely useless Biden, Walz (MN gov), Craig (House rep local to me), DFL, and all Dems. The blame game is kind of amusing. The Ds outspent the Rs - it's not fair! Polling is broken and screwed up the whole election! Young people don't care about my retirement!

When I was a kid I hung out in the back of League of Women Voters meetings my mom was active in. Even as a kid I could feel the excitement these 20-somethings had for change. It feels like that might be happening again and it's fantastic.
posted by Clinging to the Wreckage at 9:28 AM on November 9 [43 favorites]


A lot of specific races made me sad last night. But regarding Congress, it was supposed to be a blowout for the GOP and it wasn’t. In 2018, Democrats picked up 41 seats. In 2010, Republicans picked up 63 seats. With high inflation and an unpopular president in the White House, Democrats are on track to lose … 20 seats? On paper, it’s a win for the GOP but the Democrats handily beat expectations and are arguably in a better position for 2024.
posted by kat518 at 9:44 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Mandela Barnes just conceded :(
posted by pxe2000 at 9:46 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


I hope the donkey party takes a lesson from the fetterman victory. we need candidates that seem like normal people and communicate well...

It's not just that. Tim Ryan came across as a normal person and pundits had him as running an excellent campaign, but "running against his own party."

Fetterman won running with progressive priorities. It could be the "normal guy" image had an outsized effect, but the point still stands that he won without turning his back on Democratic principles.

I, for one, am ready for the "both-sides" variety of talking points to be laid to rest.
posted by ishmael at 9:53 AM on November 9 [30 favorites]


At least coming out of the mouths of goddamn Democratic politicians.
posted by ishmael at 9:53 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Looks like Susan Wild will complete the PA blue trifecta for my area. Very glad for her.
posted by Dashy at 9:55 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


In Maryland, we just won ourselves a Black governor (our first ever!) and legal cannabis. I...might be able to survive another two years?
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:57 AM on November 9 [18 favorites]


Greg Abbott is not running for president. He knows too many Republicans view physical disabilities as moral failings, and is happy with his Texas fiefdom. In my opinion.

I am a (partially/invisibly) disabled Texan and I do not disagree at all with your commentary on Republicans seeing disability as a moral failing. And yet, I am here to tell you that Greg Abbott may still run for President. I agree that Ron DeSantis has better chances nationally but Abbott has the ambition and he'll do it in a heartbeat if he decides his chances are good enough.

One of the good things about Beto's run is that it did spend down Abbott's war chest. But he runs things pay-for-play here and it will fill up again. We warned y'all about GW Bush so please listen when we say Abbott is awful and means to do what he's doing to us to all of you.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 9:59 AM on November 9 [32 favorites]


> Mandela Barnes just conceded :(

Looking at the numbers, the vote difference is ~27k votes, almost suspiciously close to the 26.9k won by Beglinger (who wasn't even running, but whose name could not be removed from the ballot in time) in the governors race. I think Evers was saved by the fringe candidate spoiler, which is not very reassuring about the future of the state. Good news is that, at least this time around, the GOP did not get the state senate seat they needed for a supermajority, so for the time being, Evers can still veto every batshit insane bill they pass.
posted by dis_integration at 10:01 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


The real question is that there are still about 30k votes for Evers that didn't go to Michels, but went to Johnson in the senate. Who are these maniacs? Are they just racists? I'll never understand the American Voter.
posted by dis_integration at 10:02 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


pundits had him as running an excellent campaign

maybe moving forward we should stop paying so many white dudes who grew up upper middle class and went to the same set of universities making prognostications based on polls they don't really understand about topics issue they don't really experience to write columns
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:05 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]


" I was particularly glad that vile homunculus Thomas DeVore didn't pull an upset in the attorney general race. "

That fuckin' guy.

The real joy we can all take from the Illinois races (which were mostly foregone conclusions) was that AP called the statewide races at 7 pm, the instant the polls closed, meaning Darren Bailey and Tom DeVore lost their elections faster than anyone else in Illinois history. GREAT WORK TEAM.

Ron Johnson being re-elected in WI is a real kick in the nuts, tho.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:06 AM on November 9 [14 favorites]


At this point, which seats do Dems need to win/have a shot at winning? It looks like GA is going into a runoff election. (Not saying anything about Mark Kelly's chances right now, since anything could happen.)
posted by pxe2000 at 10:07 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


The real question is that there are still about 30k votes for Evers that didn't go to Michels, but went to Johnson in the senate. Who are these maniacs? Are they just racists? I'll never understand the American Voter.

I browsed conservative Twitter after the primaries. There were a LOT of people devastated that Kleefisch lost the primary because they hated Michels so much. I saw more than one Republican claiming that they would still vote for Ron Johnson, but they would "hold their nose" and vote for Evers because Michels would be a disaster for the state. There are, apparently, about 30k people who have some sort of line when it comes to which Republicans they'll vote for. I am not deep enough into conservative politics to tell you what line Michels crossed that Johnson and Kleefisch have not, but there must have been something.
posted by brook horse at 10:07 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


> Who are these maniacs?

Anecdotally from people I know (different state though) I think there are a lot of people who like to imagine themselves independents and centrists, so always include a token D in their otherwise nearly-straight-ticket R. Maybe them?
posted by anonymisc at 10:07 AM on November 9


Coup d'crudité.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:08 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


Who are these maniacs? Are they just racists?

Yes. Door County, a wealthy and very white vacation destination (and where I live), is one of fourteen counties nationwide that went Obama Obama Trump Biden. Democrat Tony Evers won yesterday by 5 points... and Mandela lost by about 1 percent. Ron Johnson's barrage of racist ads worked.
posted by carmicha at 10:08 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


extra proud to live in and work for the Great State of Minnesota today

Hands up for the great state of Minnesota! I feel some small confidence now whereas I'd really felt pretty terrible - the MPLS mayor (and his cop and developer buddies) is such a shit and watching all the frothing hate and lies around the state was really getting me down. I moved here in the late nineties because I liked it and felt that this was a special state with particularly good qualities and these past few years I've really said to myself that if my job fell through I'd up sticks.

I know that one is not supposed to like Waltz but he's really been between a rock and a hard place with the loony right. It's not that I expect him to be a radical now but maybe we can get forwarder with a few useful projects.

I just want to like Minnesota! I want it to be governed well and for people to be, like, chill. Things don't have to be perfect but when I moved here I would not have predicted that we'd have a heavily armed massive and yet completely lazy except for beating homeless people police force calling what feels like every single shot in the metro.
posted by Frowner at 10:10 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]


The WI attack ads on Barnes went heavy on a prior defunding police stance, which I think at this point we probably need to acknowledge is not a politically favorable position. Also racism.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:11 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Who are these maniacs? Are they just racists?

Jon Favreau did a lot of focus groups of Obama/Trump voters (those who voted for Obama aaand Trump), and some of the responses he got were: "Obama was change; Trump was change".

They are voting based on emotion.
posted by ishmael at 10:13 AM on November 9 [22 favorites]


Coup d'crudité.

True story: apparently Fetterman's campaign team made a point of serving crudités at their election night party.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:16 AM on November 9 [34 favorites]


Top level trolling right there
posted by Windopaene at 10:25 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


I haven’t spent a ton of time watching these people but it seems like Greg Abbott is less charismatic than DeSantis.

And DeSantis looks like the sun n' liquor-baked bass fiddle player in a 40s hillbilly band.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:26 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


Minnesota has so much to recommend it! Beautiful nature and some big animals, lots of cutting edge medical care, occasional nationally ranked arts stuff, great colleges and universities, choice of big city and small town, a surprisingly diverse metro area with a history of [some people] welcoming immigrants and refugees - if people could just stop being racist, greedy shits this place could really be paradise.

I really loved it here for a long time despite the various failings of the state but if I had to name inflection points it would be when the murder of Philando Castile was allowed to go basically unpunished and when the homelessness crisis started and people just shrugged. Those were moral crises for the state where it was incredibly, unmissably obvious to everyone that something had to be done and we just decided that we were going straight to hell instead.

Anyway, fingers crossed that we can baby step our way back from the abyss.
posted by Frowner at 10:30 AM on November 9 [22 favorites]


Top level trolling right there

Honestly, one of the worst indignities at the thought of Fetterman losing to Oz was the idea that someone could troll somebody else that goddamn hard and still lose an election. (If you haven't been following along with Fetterman's non-stop Oz roasts, you missed out on one of the great joys of 2022. He and his team are absolutely fire.)
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:31 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]


"While we're incredibly saddened by the loss of Representative Tony DeLuca, we are proud to see the voters to continue to show their confidence in him and his commitment to Democratic values by re-electing him posthumously. A special election will follow soon." - PA House Dems

Democrat Anthony “Tony” DeLuca, Pennsylvania’s longest-serving state representative, won more than 85% of the vote. DeLuca, 85, died on 9 October from lymphoma, a disease he had twice previously fended off. By the time of his death it was too late to change the ballot or put forth another candidate for his seat.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:37 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]


Oz was so unprepared to be made fun of the entire time. Absolute right strategy for a guy who has so much and probably hasn’t heard the word “no” from anyone in decades.

Fetterman winning is such great, great news. I’m really happy about that. I hope the Dems learn from this for 2024. Less McKinsey candidates, please.
posted by glaucon at 10:37 AM on November 9 [24 favorites]


Not sure if this has shown up yet:

Democrats’ Elevation Of Election Deniers Worked
Throughout the late spring and into the summer, Democratic operatives made a series of risky choices to elevate Republican candidates who wholeheartedly embraced former President Donald Trump’s cornucopia of lies about the 2020 presidential election...

On election night, those risky bets paid off. All six of the election-denying candidates on the ballot whom Democrats boosted ― three gubernatorial candidates, two House candidates and a Senate candidate ― lost, most of them resoundingly.
posted by clawsoon at 10:38 AM on November 9 [14 favorites]


By the time of his death it was too late to change the ballot or put forth another candidate for his seat.

I'm still with Mel.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 10:41 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]




Looks around at Utah results. *sigh*. At least Mike Lee went from +41 in 2016 to only +15 in 2022. I appreciate the hustle Evan McMullin (hey you were +30 in my county!)

But ugh that all the other R’s went 62% or higher for national races. Salt Lake County looking a little bluer maybe on local level. That’s about all I got.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:47 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


I don't care if boosting far-right primary candidates "worked," it was still wrong and will cause greater harm in the long run.
posted by biogeo at 10:49 AM on November 9 [24 favorites]


It is weird the Gen-X in the US is so nearly out of power, especially at the Federal level. Canada and France at least, are headed by Gen-Xers and have been for quite a while now. I do expect the Millennials to take over within the decade though, at least in my country.

There seems to be a decent number of 40-55 year olds at the state levels though.
posted by bonehead at 10:55 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


RonButNotStupid: the best detail of that ad is how the Fetterman logo is animated to look like the vanity card at the end of every Simpsons episode. Such a nice touch.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:56 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


I am really glad about the Fetterman win (I have family in PA and am so pleased for them)
but sorta kinda even more delighted that Oz lost. In your face you lying slimebucket!
posted by supermedusa at 10:57 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]


It is weird the Gen-X in the US is so nearly out of power, especially at the Federal level.

*begin standard Gen-X mode*

That's because there are so many damn Boomers who aren't getting out of the way and giving us a chance.

*end standard Gen-X mode*
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:00 AM on November 9 [43 favorites]


Can some one explain to me what the 'boosting' of far right republicans was? I read the linked article but I still don't fully understand? The Democrats promoted them to the Republican base in the primaries and then attacked them for extremist views in the main election?
posted by roolya_boolya at 11:01 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


The Democrats in effect promoted them to the Republican base during the primaries by attacking them for extremist views as if they were already the nominee for the general election.
posted by bassooner at 11:04 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


> I love mefi and I love these threads, but the doomerism seems wild to me given the facts.

QFT! It's like a whole string of spot-on NYT PitchBot impersonations, y'all, let's take a breath here.
posted by MiraK at 11:07 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]


The Democrats in effect promoted them to the Republican base during the primaries by attacking them for extremist views as if they were already the nominee for the general election.

Seems reasonable to me.
posted by clawsoon at 11:12 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


We will know that Boebert has officially lost when the Masked Singer people announce that, no, they will not allow their costumed performers to carry rifles with live ammo on stage.
posted by delfin at 11:13 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


Can some one explain to me what the 'boosting' of far right republicans was?

If memory serves me correctly, it consisted of pointing out that they were lunatic Trump loyalists -- not so much "boosting" them but criticizing them in a way that worked great in the Republican primaries but was poison in the general.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


> it consisted of pointing out that they were lunatic Trump loyalists -- not so much "boosting" them but criticizing them in a way that worked great in the Republican primaries but was poison in the general.

Holy shit. Count me as one who fell for the media spin because I thought they were maybe literally funding these people? through superpacs or some other even sneakier means. What you're describing is not only fair but also ethical.
posted by MiraK at 11:17 AM on November 9 [15 favorites]


One of those results was in Michigan's 3rd district, which I just moved away from earlier this year. It typically went Republican, but was fairly purple with including a decent portion of metro Grand Rapids. Even so, it wasn't a psycho Republican district - Justin Amash was the rep a few years ago and fairly famously stood up to Trump's nonsense; the rep the last few years was Peter Meijer (scion of the Meijer grocery empire), who voted to impeach Trump after January 6th. Meijer lost the primary this year to an actual psycho Republican, who then lost the general to Democratic Hillary Scholten.
posted by LionIndex at 11:23 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


MiraK, they were definitely literally funding these people in the hopes of getting an easier-to-beat general election opponent: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/democrats-interfere-republican-primaries/

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/midterm-results-for-election-deniers-supported-by-democrats.html

I'm ambivalent about this tactic myself--I've heard smart people make points for an against--but yeah, this is what happened.
posted by kensington314 at 11:24 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Neither of those links says that Democrats "funded" the candidates. They bought ads attacking those candidates. Yes, they did so in a way that likely boosted their appeal to MAGAhats, but summarizing the tactic as giving money to the bad guys is false.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:30 AM on November 9 [19 favorites]


That Post article is describing the same thing that Gelatin described:

The approach often involves TV ads suggesting that a far-right GOP candidate is too conservative for a state or district and drawing attention to the candidate’s hard-line views on abortion, guns and former president Donald Trump — messages that resonate with conservative primary voters. In other cases, Democrats have run ads attacking GOP candidates seen as tougher to defeat in general elections in ways that could erode support for them in Republican primaries.
posted by amarynth at 11:30 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


Yes, in some cases they strategically ran attack ads against far-right candidates in an attempt to convince Republican primary voters for them, but in other cases they ran attack ads against more moderate Republicans painting them as too moderate and beholden to the party's establishment. (Source.) The first practice is defensible, the second to my mind is not.
posted by biogeo at 11:31 AM on November 9 [11 favorites]


I think the second scenario described is risky. I can see why it would be viewed as indefensible. But if the long term play is to fracture or split the GOP, then I hope to god it works.

Which, I think is possible. This GOP strategist seems to get it. His voice is shaking, the hesitation about using the word “radical” at the end…they are riding the tiger and there is no easy off ramp for the crazy that has been injected into their discourse over the last 30+ years. That discourse has literally changed the brains of their most ardent supporters (25-33%+ of the country, mind you), so Dems running those ads is most definitely using their strength against them as a weakness. And I could be wrong or not seeing how, but I don’t think there is a way for Dems to change these people’s beliefs, anyways. Only ways to use it against them, which they very effectively did *this time around.*
posted by glaucon at 11:39 AM on November 9 [11 favorites]


to tonycpsu's point, I may have a too-wide definition of what "funding" a candidate consists of
posted by kensington314 at 11:39 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


From one of the links kensington314 provided is this example which (IMO) is beyond the pale:

> Lost: Don Bolduc, U.S. Senate, New Hampshire

> Retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc has said the 2020 election results should be “thrown out” and wants to repeal the 17th Amendment, which allows for the direct election of senators. He had a tough time fundraising during the GOP primary, but Democrats pitched in more than their share, with Chuck Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC spending $3.2 million to paint Bolduc’s primary opponent, Chuck Morse, as a “sleazy politician” beholden to lobbyists. Bolduc won the primary by about a point in order to face Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan — a race in which he has walked back a few of his more robust election-fraud claims.


Contrast that with the more middle-of-the-road (IMO) tactics in AZ:

> Too Close to Call: Kari Lake, Arizona Governor

> As Kari Lake’s lead in the final weeks of the GOP primary began to evaporate, the Arizona Democratic Party sent out an email to voters thanking her opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson, for donating to Democrats in prior cycles. “As the Republican primary for governor continues to stir toxic infighting, the Arizona Democratic Party will always be grateful for Robson’s longtime support in helping elect Democrats up and down the ballot, including this November,” the email read. The stunt was mentioned at a rally for Lake — also a former Democrat — who went on to win the Republican primary. Democrats never paid for ads for Lake, making this case much different than the millions in ads spent in GOP primaries in other states. “It’s not just a distinction; they’re not even in the same category,” said David Turner of the DGA. But Lake’s die-hard election denial and experience as a TV news anchor made her a formidable opponent in Arizona in the general election against Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.


And contrast THAT with the (IMO) completely ethical tactic described here:

> Lost: John Gibbs, Michigan’s Third Congressional District

> Republican representative Peter Meijer of Michigan voted to impeach Trump after the insurrection, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee bought $400,000 in TV ads broadcasting the conservative ideas of a former Trump staffer named John Gibbs, who says the results in 2020 were “mathematically impossible.” While the ad technically encouraged viewers not to vote for Gibbs (he is “too conservative for western Michigan,” it said), it mostly just lists his unwavering support for Trump. Meijer wasn’t thrilled by the ad buy. “If successful, Republican voters will be blamed if any of these candidates are ultimately elected,” he wrote in August. “But there is no doubt Democrats’ fingerprints will be on the weapon.” He lost to Gibbs by just over 3,000 votes.
posted by MiraK at 11:40 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


I know this thread is mostly a national politics thread, but I just want to boast that Los Angeles County appears to have ousted Sheriff Alex Villanueva, a Trumpy asshole who shelters deputy gangs and is a member of one.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-08/2022-california-election-la-county-sheriff-results-villanueva-luna

Results could still technically turn in his favor, but I am being optimistic.

I'm also optimistic that Karen Bass will be the city's mayor, not billionaire Republican Rick Caruso, who spent probably an entire nation's budget on this race.
posted by kensington314 at 11:44 AM on November 9 [31 favorites]


As I understand it, they didn't give money to the nutjobs directly, but paid for ads that played up their Trump-loving, extreme anti-abortion, election-fraud-claiming, pro-gun etc stances in comparison to other lilly-livered 'moderate' established Republican candidates. So promoting the nutjobs to voters that loved that in the primaries, so they could then be attacked on those same credentials in the general. The argument being that some would scrub their websites and material etc of their more controversial positions in order to be more attractive in the general, but they would already be publicly associated with those positions and find it harder to walk back.

The biggest controversy is when it didn't work at the primary level, and the "moderate" republican ended up effectively benefiting from ads saying he's not extreme like that other repub nutjob - funded by the Democrats.

The other issue is that you've got Democrat ad spend being used to amplify the message of election-denying Republicans - if they were to end up actually *winning* the election, you've basically helped an absolute nutjob cheater get their message out to a receptive audience.

So it's great if it works, but the unintended consequences could be pretty awful.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:45 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


Just so long as the Dems don't get an "every problem looks like a nail" mentality with the hammer of boosting crazies having worked this time. It's definitely situational, and it would be horrifying to have it backfire.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:46 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


I can't decide how I feel about it but it does seem like Democrats finally playing hardball. Given Republicans were running ads labeling a black Senate candidate as a "dangerous criminal" and literally darkening his skin because they knew that would scare off more racists, idk if I have it in me to get mad about the Dems starting to dip into shadier practices. Definitely a risky move, but on the other hand it does seem a deviation from "when they go low, we go high," so...? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by brook horse at 11:47 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]


So Anthony Carnevale won, and now I get to deal with that. I guess its time for me to show up to meetings to make this guy misserable.
posted by The Power Nap at 11:48 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


And what, you may be wondering, was served at John Fetterman's victory party? Crudités, mais naturellement!
posted by orange swan at 11:49 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]


> Just so long as the Dems don't get an "every problem looks like a nail" mentality with the hammer of boosting crazies having worked this time. It's definitely situational, and it would be horrifying to have it backfire.

As a PA resident, it's hard to get more horrifying than "Governor Doug Mastriano". I'll throw my lot in with the seven actual election results over a bunch of hypotheticals that all start with "assume the electorate wants the Nazis."
posted by tonycpsu at 11:50 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


with Chuck Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC spending $3.2 million to paint Bolduc’s primary opponent, Chuck Morse, as a “sleazy politician”

I said way upthread that I didn't donate to incumbent campaigns this year if they wouldn't tell me what they were doing to make abortion legal nation-wide.* Schumer's PAC is one that asked for money. To me, this is another reason not to donate. I don't mind my money going to Dems to beat Repubs. But, I'm sure as not wanting my money to go to one R vs another. For me, this is entirely indefensible and a waste of money, at best.

*No campaign responded, FWIW.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 11:51 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


I can't decide how I feel about it but it does seem like Democrats finally playing hardball. Definitely a risky move, but on the other hand it does seem a deviation from "when they go low, we go high," so...?

Didn't the Democrats essentially do the same thing in 2016? There was a lot of "lolol let's get Trump to be the general-election candidate, he'll be way easier to handle than Rubio" going on at the time. I remember hearing a lot of criticism of that method at the time from people who were like "no, seriously, Americans will elect Trump, they are that cynical and dumb," which got dismissed by others (myself included, honestly) as being too pessimistic.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 12:00 PM on November 9 [24 favorites]


I admit a lot of that year has been permanently blacked out of my memory, so! Definitely very possible.
posted by brook horse at 12:03 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]


Another Minnesotan here!

My big concern was a down-ballot race for School Board: a group of three nutballs were running on the "Schools are turning your kids gay and teaching slavery existed how dare they and experimenting on your kids with vaccines and they can't breathe with masks and did you hear about litterboxes - oh, and trans, don't get me started on trans" ticket.

The neighbors on each side of me had their sign on their yards, so I was concerned maybe there were enough nutball voters to get at least one of them in. Happily, out of the ten or so candidates for the three slots, all three went to sane people.

I heard on /r/minnesota that this sort of thing was going on in several other communities, always three listed together on the same sign/ad, and all three super-right-wing crazies. I hope they got defeated in the other races as well.
posted by AzraelBrown at 12:03 PM on November 9 [9 favorites]


Didn't the Democrats essentially do the same thing in 2016? There was a lot of "lolol let's get Trump to be the general-election candidate, he'll be way easier to handle than Rubio" going on at the time.

There's a decent argument to be made that if Trump had stayed an obscure candidate with minimal coverage as an obvious nutjob, he may well never have won the primary. As it was, he was absolutely promoted ad absurdum by the media, and the more outrageous he got, the more coverage he got - including tons from nominally Democratic supporting media.

The same can be said about Brexit; an obscure issue that wasn't even in the top 10 of voters' concerns was wielded as a political wedge issue by the main rightwing tory party to fend off losing a few votes to a relatively obscure super-rightwing party (UKIP), and welp, here we are out of the EU, after 6 painful years of cretins and bullies still fucking up everything they lay their hands on as a direct result.

Giving a metric shitload of free airtime to nutjobs can definitely backfire.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:20 PM on November 9 [30 favorites]


I suspect we'll never know, but it's possible the landscape is different now because of all the Republican COVID deaths. The base of people who buys into conspiracy theories may in fact be smaller.
posted by brook horse at 12:24 PM on November 9 [23 favorites]


I appreciate the hustle Evan McMullin (hey you were +30 in my county!)

Utah, granted, but isn't Evan a hardcore opponent of healthcare privacy, along with other planks of the Republican platform? He keeps getting described on social media sites as a moderate or centrist, and seems to like portraying himself as such, but on closer inspection his political views seem on the quite extreme-right end of the axis.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:26 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]


The fact that so many apparently sensible observers, even here on MeFi, are so hyper-focused on what the Democrats supposedly did to get Trump / Mastriano as opponent is a perfect example of Murc's Law, the widely-held belief that only Democrats have causal influence on electoral outcomes.

If the electorate wants the fascists we're going to eventually get the fascists. And in the case of Mastriano, the menu of choices was not "Mega-Trumper Doug Mastriano vs. a slate of moderate Republicans", it was "Mega-Trumper Doug Mastriano" vs. "Donald Trump’s political godfather" Lou Barletta , a Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney, and a bunch of also-rans. I'm not sure what counterfactual those who are blaming Democrats have in mind, but at least in PA-Gov, we were going to end up with a hardcore Trumper no matter what Shapiro backers did or did not say about Doug Mastriano.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:32 PM on November 9 [17 favorites]


This would have been a red wave if the Supreme Court hadn't overturned Roe v. Wade.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:42 PM on November 9 [31 favorites]


For some perspective on the Democrats' performance in the 2022 midterm House elections:

-- TFG lost 41 house seats in his only midterm in 2018.
-- Barack Obama lost 63 in his first midterm in 2010.
-- George W. Bush lost 30 seats in his second midterm in 2006.
-- Bill Clinton lost 52 in his first midterm in 1994.
-- George H.W. Bush lost 8 in his only midterm in 1990.
-- Ronald Reagan lost 26 in his first midterm in 1982.
-- Jimmy Carter lost 12 in his only midterm in 1978.

It seems likely that Biden will do fairly well by comparison.
posted by orange swan at 12:46 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]


-- George W. Bush lost 30 seats in his first midterm in 2006.

George W. Bush gained 8 seats in his first midterm in 2002.
posted by Etrigan at 12:49 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]


I'm not sure what I expected from Lauren Boebert's countdown to electoral defeat (it must be agonizing for her to watch the return creep from 89% to 90% to 91%. Good), but former baseball star and convicted felon Lenny Dykstra propositioning her on Twitter wasn't it.

But we do live in interesting times.
posted by delfin at 12:55 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


tonycpsu, not sure if you were including my comments among those that prompted yours, but for the record I basically agree with you. For my part, I don't blame the Democrats for Mastriano or Trump or any other right-winger. However I think the kind of cynical manipulation committed by a handful of Democratic operatives to try to influence the outcome of Republican primaries towards more extreme but less electable candidates is profoundly wrong and shortsighted. Many other Democrats, some of them in leadership positions, have expressed the same concern. I think there's a hazard that comes from professional political operatives whose sole focus and career success is built around short-term electoral gains. They are a necessary and valuable part of the process, but subject to dangerous personal incentives and need to be watched closely.
posted by biogeo at 1:00 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]


he was absolutely promoted ad absurdum by the media

Including showing an empty stage waiting for Trump instead of, or in a split-screen with, his opponents.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:09 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Maura Healey is the new governor of Massachusetts. Our first female governor and the first openly lesbian governor in the US.

Healey will likely be sworn in first due to timezones, but we'll also have a lesbian governor over in Oregon! The race was just called for Democrat Tina Kotek.

The Oregon governor's race was tighter than it should have been, partly due to Nike co-founder Phil Knight giving a ton of money first to an unaffiliated spoiler candidate, Betsy Johnson, and then to Republican candidate Christine Drazan. He really wanted to play queenmaker.
posted by lisa g at 1:21 PM on November 9 [26 favorites]


For those wondering, "TFG" is apparently a Twitterism for "The Former Guy" – i.e., Trump.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 1:36 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


i kept assuming it stood for "that fucking guy"
posted by wittgenstein at 1:37 PM on November 9 [66 favorites]


"read the fine manual"
posted by clawsoon at 1:39 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]


Fuck you Phil Knight!

Way to hang in there Oregon!
posted by Windopaene at 1:39 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]


that fucking ghoul
posted by Ahmad Khani at 1:40 PM on November 9 [12 favorites]


You know what I’ve seen zero mention of today? Here (if I missed it, sorry), on Elon’s Big Mistake or in the media…is Obama’s closing argument and hard work giving speeches to GOTV and push support for Fetterman and others. Dude worked his ass off the last month and I think remains a major factor in elections.
posted by glaucon at 1:57 PM on November 9 [32 favorites]


If Georgia goes to a runoff, I can only imagine how much money is going to be spent on the race.
posted by clawsoon at 1:58 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]


Biden was also asked about Russia’s announcement that they are withdrawing from Kherson:
"I find it interesting that they waited until after the election to make that judgment."
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:59 PM on November 9 [49 favorites]


HURRAY OREGON!!!!!!! thank you for the news lisa g! I've been worried for months but now, ahhhhh, phew, disaster averted.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:03 PM on November 9 [8 favorites]


I guess I don't think the issue is policy wonk weirdo-ness, either. Bill Clinton was a total frigging policy wonk, and he didn't have that problem. Barack Obama was a University of Chicago law professor, and he didn't have it either. It's a real problem, but it's a different problem. It's about condescension towards voters and seeming like you think you're better than them and know what they need better than they do.

I kinda think you two are saying the same thing. Bill and Barry are both known as generational political talents for their combination of underlying wonkiness with outward approachability and charismatic communication. Clinton was the most “regular Joe from Arkansas” Rhodes scholar possible and Obama was the guy with the pretty unusual life story who was really good at folding that into a universalist message about what the country could be. Fetterman definitely aims to be somewhere in that territory - one can’t and shouldn’t pretend that he doesn’t have a whole bunch of degrees on his wall but he doesn’t really need to be a steelworker. He needs (and generally has) the ability to seem like something besides another smarmy politician.
posted by atoxyl at 2:19 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Washington doesn't count for basically anything, but I have been really worried about Sen. Patty Murray's race because every news outlet was calling it a super tight race. And the initial wave of attack ads that Murray's campaign showed were abjectly terrible--they framed Drumpf bootlicker Tiffany Smiley in an almost glamorous way, and made it easy for someone who has mixed feelings about abortion rights (something that, when I was involved in campaigns before, I heard all too often, where women were like "I believe in the right to choose, but you know, it is killing a baby before it's born") to think Smiley sounded reasonable and interested in protecting babies. It made me angry enough to drop an email but I doubt anyone read it, though at least at some point someone got some goddamn sense in their head and started hitting harder in some better ads.

Most of Murray's ads were focused on abortion rights, and I really hope that's what worked, because Murray fucking trounced her. I don't have a great love for Murray, but the attack ads against her were unhinged--Smiley's campaign was hammering on a child dying in a Seattle park or something from ingesting fentanyl, blaming her for inflation and Seattle's crime rate, and my favorite, saying that Murray defunded the police. About the only thing they didn't do was show Smiley with a gun blasting Murray's picture or something. But I think a lot of people really did think it was a neck and neck race, and it turned out to be far from it.

On another note, I'm really glad that Pramila Jayapal sailed to re-election in my district (7). She lives very near me, and it's been a really tough year for her, because there is a right-wing nutjob who has been literally trying to kill her. Since the feds have taken over the investigation of this man and his son, who have been terrorizing her and her family at their home because he's a neighbor, we haven't heard as much about it as when it first came to light, but he's brought guns to her property and has been yelling about her going back to India, and racist, misogynist shit like that. I'm glad she has been undaunted--I just think the world of her and wish there were more people like her in our government. I never even saw any ads for her campaign, which might have been because her opponent was such a tool.

I'm glad I can finally go back to watching TV now on the channels that have ads because I can't afford to pay for ad-free--the political ads, especially those wild Smiley ads, were so bad that I basically stopped doing anything where I might encounter one.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 2:30 PM on November 9 [22 favorites]


The Atlantic: Democrats Might Have Pulled Off the Biggest Midterm Shock in Decades
Another lesson is that Republicans seem to have given more weight to vibes than polls throughout the past year. Here are several things that poll terribly: Donald Trump, the foiled insurrection on January 6, explicit plans to reject democratic elections, overturning Roe, and installing abortion bans. To believe that one’s party can win a landslide election while embracing all five, one must, at some level, believe that unquantified bad vibes are worth more than quantifiable polling.
posted by box at 2:30 PM on November 9 [20 favorites]


Obama was the guy with the pretty unusual life story who was really good at folding that into a universalist message about what the country could be

I remember how inspiring his keynote speech at the 2004 DNC was, and how excited we were here.
Yet even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes. Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America - there's the United States of America. There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America.
It seemed like a vision we could all get behind, despite our differences. Instead it was greeting by the ugliest blatant open racism most of us have seen in our lifetimes.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:50 PM on November 9 [23 favorites]


This election was the first time in American history that LGBTQ candidates were on the ballot in all 50 states.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:53 PM on November 9 [49 favorites]


I suspect a rogue auto-correct but I'm honestly not sure how to read this.

"Force a reckoning in the Republican Party" seems the most plausible, but "force a retconning in the Republican Party" is believable, and even "force more conning in the Republican Party."
I just took that as a freudian slip calling for a new set of lies to replace the old discredited ones.
posted by morspin at 2:55 PM on November 9


I suspect a rogue auto-correct but I'm honestly not sure how to read this.

"Force a reckoning in the Republican Party" seems the most plausible, but "force a retconning in the Republican Party" is believable, and even "force more conning in the Republican Party."
I just took that as a freudian slip calling for a new set of lies to replace the old discredited ones.
Indeed, it seems like "retconning" is outperforming "reckoning" today. Stories have been popping up all over the place explaining how yesterday's results were bad news for Trump and his (previously assumed to be unassailable) position as party king-maker, and I can practically see the figures in the party who fancy themselves to be his successors gearing up the spin machines to begin laying the groundwork that will explain why they are the inevitable future of the party.
posted by Nerd of the North at 3:15 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]


> This election was the first time in American history that LGBTQ candidates were on the ballot in all 50 states.

From the thread about Obama's 2004 speech that you linked, kirkaracha:

> The ... make-up of the Senate [in 2004]
>14 women
>86 men

>97 whites
>0 blacks
>0 hispanics
>2 asians
>1 native american
>0 persons of mixed race


Today the numbers are:

24 women
76 men

89 whites
3 blacks
6 hispanics
2 asians
0 native american
0 persons of mixed race

The number of LGBTQ people in the senate in 2004 was 0. As of yesterday that number was 2.
posted by MiraK at 3:15 PM on November 9 [20 favorites]


The number of LGBTQ people in the senate in 2004 was 0...
Just going to put in the obligatory reminder that when speaking of LGBTQ people in this context, it's best to say 'openly LGBTQ'.
There are a heck of a lot of us out there that people don't know about, likely many in office.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 3:18 PM on November 9 [45 favorites]


So anyway, an update from one of the blank spots on your Election Night 2022 results map..

Here in Alaska we won't know the results of our major races for quite some time. It appears that our odious governor has won re-election, which is unfortunate, but the state's major federal races are undecided and probably won't be decided for two more weeks at least.

When I last checked, Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka held a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski but neither candidate has, or can expect, the >50% needed to avoid instant run-off under our (relatively) new ranked-choice voting system and Murkowski is very likely to pick up a large percentage of the second-choices from voters who opted to rank Democratic candidate Pat Chesbro as their first choice preference. Tshibaka and Murkowski are currently at about 44% and 43% of first-choice votes. With Chesbro accounting for about 10% of first choices and assuming that Chesbro voters' second choices break overwhelmingly in favor of Murkowski, likely Murkowski ekes out a narrow win through the reluctant support of Democratic-leaning voters.

In the state's single House of Representatives race, incumbent Democratic Representative Mary Peltola, who was elected for the first time in an August special election, holds a significant lead among first-choice voters. As of late on election day, Peltola had nearly 47%, but again, under Alaska's voting rules a candidate needs to reach 50% to avoid instant run-off of the ranked-choice ballots. Peltola might conceivably reach 50% based on late-reporting precincts - in the August special she had strong support among the rural bush communities for whom she had advocated for years during her tenure as a state legislator - but most likely it will again go to instant run-off. Her chances there are not guaranteed but still pretty good - at the current time Republican candidate Sarah Palin is leading by a small margin over Republican candidate Nick Begich III for 2nd and 3rd place respectively. There's also a 4th place libertarian candidate on the ballot, polling in the very low single digits. Assuming Peltola does not surpass 50% of first-choice votes, the 4th-place and then 3rd-place candidates will be successively eliminated and the votes redistributed according to their voters' expressed preferences. It's good news for Peltola that Palin is currently in second, because Palin still carries a lot of baggage in the state and is not expected to benefit as reliably from second- and third-choice preferences cast by voters who preferred either the other Republican or the Libertarian candidate.

So.. Alaska currently leans Blue in the House race but likely won't have an official result until November 23.

Closer to home (mine, anyway) the (independent) incumbent Alaska State Representative I was out waving signs for yesterday leads after election night by 187 votes over his Republican rival. The incumbent was out there with my friends and neighbors and I last month fighting a ballot initiative that would have defunded our local library, so it seemed only fair to return the support. I've got my fingers crossed in that race but we won't know until absentee votes are counted, again by the 23rd. But it looks like we may have eked out another narrow victory over the anti-LGBTQ+ bigots and anti-tax glibertarians who tried to kill our library.
posted by Nerd of the North at 3:32 PM on November 9 [25 favorites]


Maura Healey is the new governor of Massachusetts. Our first female governor and the first openly lesbian governor in the US.

Healey will likely be sworn in first due to timezones, but we'll also have a lesbian governor over in Oregon! The race was just called for Democrat Tina Kotek.


FWIW, current Oregon governor Kate Brown is openly bisexual.
posted by neuron at 3:47 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Maura Healey is first woman and first out gay person elected Massachusetts governor

Women win 5 of 6 statewide offices in Massachusetts elections

Of course, as of today women hold 4 of those 6 offices. The only change that's happened is Maura Healey (D) is moving from AG to governor and replacing Charlie Baker (R). She's being succeeded as AG by Kim Driscoll (D) while Deb Goldberg (D) picked up another term as Treasurer and Diana DiZoglio (D) is succeeding Susan Bump (D) as State Auditor because Bump didn't seek another term. That leaves Bill Galvin (D) as Secretary of State.

Further downballot...

Question 1 passed establishing a 4% tax on income above 1 miiilllllon dollars.

Question 2 also passed. Dental insurance will now be held to the same loss ratios as health insurers and their gratuitous profits will be capped.

And Question 4 passed reaffirming the right that anyone, regardless of their citizenship or immigration status, has the right to be a card-carrying masshole. (This question preserves an already existing law granting drivers licenses to undocumented immigrants. The law had been passed by the state legislature, vetoed by Governor Baker, with the legislature overriding that veto.)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 3:49 PM on November 9 [13 favorites]


>it's best to say 'openly LGBTQ'.

oh shoot, I'm sorry, you're right.
posted by MiraK at 4:28 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]


Very very downballot, I looked up (for the first time in ages) the board of the school district that includes my old high school. Turns out someone I know and think well of has been serving on it for a few years, and has just gotten re-elected. I took a quick look at some recent board meeting minutes and nodded approvingly at the votes and comments they've made. Glad to see it!
posted by brainwane at 4:50 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]


Meanwhile in Arkansas, Republicans including Sarah Huckabee Sanders (future governor) and John Boozman (once and future Senator) won all the statewide races and all the House ones, partially because gerrymandering cracked Pulaski County (home of Little Rock and the largest chunk of the state’s D voters) across three Congressional districts. Recreational marijuana lost, but so did a pretty odious ‘religious freedom’ bill, one letting legislators call their own special sessions, and one requiring 60% of voters to approve future ballot initiatives.

Moving to the very local, my new city councilperson is not the old white man who said ‘I know this election is nonpartisan, but I’m a conservative,’ but instead a Gen-X woman who works in nonprofit development and spends her downtime being a friend of animals.

It’s not everything I was dreaming of, but that was never going to be, and it’s not the worst-case scenario I was prepared for either. The R primaries mostly tossed out the biggest cranks, and the county-level elections went mostly D. Little Rock’s first elected Black mayor gets a runoff that he’ll probably win. The MJ folks pledge to return in 2024, like they’ve been doing for twenty years. Maybe I’ll look into getting an MMJ card—I feel like I have the PTSD for it.
posted by box at 5:09 PM on November 9 [12 favorites]


As of 7:!5 PM EST, Frisch is ahead of Boebert by 73 votes with 95% reporting and I am going to wear out my mouse clicking Refresh.
posted by delfin at 5:20 PM on November 9 [25 favorites]


You know there’s some poor soul in a very small plane going into GUC right now just to figure out WTH is going on in the SW corner of CO.
posted by susiswimmer at 5:58 PM on November 9


I know this thread is mostly a national politics thread, but I just want to boast that Los Angeles County appears to have ousted Sheriff Alex Villanueva, a Trumpy asshole who shelters deputy gangs and is a member of one.

I can't really be happy about the state of the nation, but it is at least a bit encouraging that we found out with Mastriano that someone can be way too fascist to be the governor of a swing state, and found out with Villanueva that you can be too big a thug to be elected sheriff.

I was beginning to wonder if there was any floor at all.
posted by mark k at 7:16 PM on November 9 [8 favorites]


I am going to wear out my mouse clicking Refresh.

I feel like maybe I can't breathe.
posted by aramaic at 7:18 PM on November 9


I gotta say, comments here are different because this community engages differently, but other social media discourse and even some MSNBC hosts are starting to sound smug, superior and preening. Feels like an easy way to really build resentment and allow the GOP to vote harder in 2024.

Bore them to death, instead. Celebrate with family and friends of like mind, but I don’t like the broad trend of some of the discourse. Easy way for Fox News and the conservative machine to screenshot or share that video in their nasty channels to ensure their people vote in December in the GA runoff or in two years.
posted by glaucon at 7:27 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Humbly grateful and relieved to be able to breathe.
posted by riverlife at 7:44 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Now is the time for the Indictments.
posted by valkane at 7:47 PM on November 9 [13 favorites]


> I gotta say, comments here are different because this community engages differently, but other social media discourse and even some MSNBC hosts are starting to sound smug, superior and preening. Feels like an easy way to really build resentment and allow the GOP to vote harder in 2024.

Bore them to death, instead. Celebrate with family and friends of like mind, but I don’t like the broad trend of some of the discourse. Easy way for Fox News and the conservative machine to screenshot or share that video in their nasty channels to ensure their people vote in December in the GA runoff or in two years.


Republicans literally built their entire party around smugly owning the libs and being perpetually outraged, but Democrats don't even get 24 hours for a victory lap before ostensible liberals start blaming them for hypothetical conservative outrage two years from now, as if they've ever had a hard time manufacturing things to be outraged about.

"A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own side in a quarrel." - Robert Frost
posted by tonycpsu at 7:49 PM on November 9 [80 favorites]


Yeah you’re right ha ha…I’m so on edge since 2016 I can’t even enjoy it.
posted by glaucon at 8:09 PM on November 9 [12 favorites]


I'm just interested in where the Republicans go from here. On the one hand, they are still likely to take control of the House. On the other hand, that margin will at best be narrow and dependent upon seats in NY that could be easily flipped by Dems in a year with Presidential turnouts. On the other other hand, that narrow GOP majority also would give its most radical members leverage to scuttle deals such as those covering budgets and the debt cieling, which they've shown they've been more than willing to do in the past. Logic says they should avoid the bombastic confrontations of the Clinton and Obama years if they want to minimize their chances of losing the house again in 2024 (assuming they even to manage to win the House this year, which remains to be seen), but the Republicans also have to consider their primary voters and the ideological comittments of their funders. A portion of the Republican base might be motivated by the desire "own the libs", but the US conservative movement has also spent about 60 years developing a network of funders, think tanks, churches, and other organizations designed to push a very specific ideology. Outsiders might wonder why religious conservatives would support a filander like Trump, but the arraingement makes perfect sense when you consider the fact that he's fully cooperated with their efforts to stock the judifciary with ideologs sympathetic to their radical positions. At this point the movement has matastized into a truely weird and scary cult that combines elements of Christian nationalism, neo-confederate style race based constitutional reaction, John Birch style libertarianism, and even weirder new agey elements. These groups know what they want, and they don't seem particularly willing to compromise or play by the rules to achieve their ends.

But, more than anything this election can be read as a rebuke of those elements, which you could call Trumpist. I'm don't see how Trump doesn't come out of this election weaker, but I'm also not sure it matters. The only competition I see for the nomination is Desantis, but I'm really not sure how well he plays outside Florida. The competiation the Dems put up against him wasn't exactly compelling, and he did barely win as recently as 2018.

So, right now it's all just a lot of question marks and hot takes as far I can see. What is clear is that Republicans remain massively unpopular with voters under the age 45. If it weren't for that unpopularity, the "red wave" really would have materialized as it did in 1994, 2010, and to a lesser extent in 2014. The Republican party simply doesn't have anything it can offer voters concerned about student debt, housing costs, and healthcare, let alone issues like climate change, abortion, and social justice in general.
posted by eagles123 at 8:37 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]


I've been looking forward to today's Letters from an American by the perceptive and thoughtful historian Heather Cox Richardson; yesterday's edition started thusly:
I just got a text from a Gen Z voter in Michigan who has been in line to vote for more than an hour and predicts he will be there hours more. He has no intention of leaving.

If there is an obvious story from today with results still unknown, it is this: a new generation is picking up the torch of our democracy.
Today's Letter from an American starts:
Yesterday was a good day for democracy. Americans turned out to defend our principles from those who denied our right to choose our own leaders. There was little violence, the election appears to have gone smoothly, and there are few claims of “fraud.” As I write tonight, control of the House and Senate is still not clear, but some outlines are now visible.

Usually, the party in power loses a significant number of congressional seats and state seats in the first midterm after it takes the presidency. Today, President Joe Biden spoke to reporters and noted that the Democrats had the best midterm elections for governors since 1986 and lost fewer House seats than they have in any Democratic president’s first midterm in 40 years.
At the end, she brings it back around to yesterday's young voter:
A new influx of voters—as we saw last night—can win elections, and then they will demand that the playing field be leveled back to fairness. Jack Lobel of Voters of Tomorrow, which is mobilizing Gen Z voters, told NPR’s Rachel Martin today: “The far right is trying to attack us, they’re trying to restrict our rights, and they’re trying to take us back in time. [Young people] want to go forward….”

Lobel mentioned abortion rights, economic rights, and building a better future, and he noted that the Democratic Party has stepped up for Gen Z. Certainly, organizers like strategy director of Voters of Tomorrow Victor Shi have been pounding the pavement to turn out their people.

Exit polls from last night show voters in the 18–29 age bracket making up about 12–13% of the vote and preferring Democrats by much larger margins than any other group: as much as 70%. In 25-year-old Maxwell Frost (D-FL), elected last night, Gen Z has its first member of Congress.
During the 2020 Georgia Senate run-off, I did some phone banking for Rev. Warnock, and I posted a comment about the amazing volunteers who were 14 and 16 years old and were totally committed to taking on climate change and voting rights and systemic racism and the future of democracy.

I am immensely relieved at the way so many of these races have turned out (GO MICHIGAN!), and I am looking forward to working alongside Voters of Tomorrow and everyone else working for a better world, tomorrow and every tomorrow to come.
posted by kristi at 9:13 PM on November 9 [30 favorites]


After a long line of surely this moments, surely this is the thing that finally pops the Trump bubble.
posted by interogative mood at 10:11 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Exit polls from last night show voters in the 18–29 age bracket making up about 12–13% of the vote and preferring Democrats by much larger margins than any other group: as much as 70%. In 25-year-old Maxwell Frost (D-FL), elected last night, Gen Z has its first member of Congress.


The kids are alright?

14 or fight!
posted by vrakatar at 10:18 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]


Update on WA-03, my pet house race. Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez leads ultra MAGA Steve Bannon pal Joe Kent by about five points with 70% of ballots counted. That’s a lead of 11,000 votes with at least 80,000 votes outstanding. This is an excellent showing for this district, where the Republican candidate won in 2020 by 13%.

Here is Marie Glusenkamp Perez’s campaign spot where she cuts down a real tree using a chain saw.
posted by chrchr at 10:20 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Wait a goddamn couple of seconds...Max Frost?

I love that movie but when I posted that comment at 1:18 I did not recall the revolution minded rock star in the movie was named Max Frost. I'm a little spooked here.
posted by vrakatar at 10:41 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Really good thread on the GOP from Thomas Zimmer:
Almost every time conservatives are at a crossroads, they choose the path of radicalization, even when it’s not at all clear that’s a reasonable choice from a purely electoral standpoint – even when it makes competing in a more diverse, pluralistic America a lot harder. 13/
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:59 PM on November 9 [13 favorites]


Friend just posted a screenshot that Boebert has lost by 122 votes. Voting matters!!

And I'm so happy she'll fade away now. After a tour of R wing media of course, but obscurity is coming for her.
posted by Dashy at 5:13 AM on November 10 [13 favorites]


Obscurity is coming for her.

The way it did for Sarah Palin?
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:33 AM on November 10


Obscurity is coming for her.

The way it did for Sarah Palin?


Who? ;)
posted by Gelatin at 5:50 AM on November 10 [7 favorites]


I've just read on Twitter that the count is ongoing. Very sorry for the misdirection. Recrossing my strands now.
posted by Dashy at 6:05 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]


One of the reasons I want so badly for Boebert to lose is that she is one of the prime examples of a certain breed of GOPers - someone who absolutely revels in being a complete asshole, and who also gets rewarded for it by a big chunk of the party that loves that kind of thing. I’m tired of seeing the worst people constantly get rewarded for being so awful. Not only that, despite all her grandstanding, I don’t believe she didn’t get a single bill passed and apparently the voters took note. We’ll still have to wait to see if she loses, but we can hope. (Also I hope she gets bounced because I was born in a little tiny town in that district.)
posted by azpenguin at 6:16 AM on November 10 [10 favorites]


Not only that, despite all her grandstanding, I don’t believe she didn’t get a single bill passed and apparently the voters took note.

So, THIS is what I want to have happen to Marjorie Taylor Greene.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:25 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]




So back in June, Boebert was primaried by this guy named Don Coram. Coram is a western slope rancher, has served in both houses of the Colorado General Assembly, and he's currently a state senator. His campaign had no support from the party, certainly not on the national level, and Boebert neatly trounced him by 31 points.

Coram's a moderate republican. He runs a hemp farm and coffee shop. Holds a lot of standard GOP views (guns & oil!) but also supports education, LGBTQ+ rights, legal marijuana, better healthcare access in rural areas, ending trade with Russia. Has a record of successful bipartisan legislation and a habit of working across the aisle. He said repeatedly during his campaign that he just wanted to get things done in Washington and stay away from the spotlight.

Boebert's fameseeking infuriated Coram, and he even wrote a Denver Post Op-Ed last month throwing his full support behind Frisch and calling out Boebert for "jet-setting around the country promoting herself and extreme rhetoric that only divides this country further."

And I wonder, how many of Frisch's votes were votes for Never Boebert? Could Coram have won this thing had the GOP been more prescient and allowed a moderate through, just to keep the seat warm for vote counts?
posted by mochapickle at 6:41 AM on November 10 [22 favorites]


mochapickle: Could Coram have won this thing had the GOP been more prescient and allowed a moderate through, just to keep the seat warm for vote counts?

And would that have been so bad, as long as he didn't vote in lockstep with the national party?

A person with balanced views sounds like the kind of guy we can work with, as opposed to the usual do-nothing, Oppositional/Defiant Party cog like Boebert.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:56 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]


I've just read on Twitter that the count is ongoing. Very sorry for the misdirection. Recrossing my strands now.

Indeed. The major sites (CNN, MSNBC, FOX) are all showing a 64 vote lead for Frisch with a trickle remaining, and of course an official recount will follow due to the closeness of the race.

A person with balanced views sounds like the kind of guy we can work with, as opposed to the usual do-nothing, Oppositional/Defiant Party cog like Boebert.

Which is precisely why he lost his primary by 30 points.
posted by delfin at 7:09 AM on November 10 [15 favorites]


A person with balanced views sounds like the kind of guy we can work with, as opposed to the usual do-nothing, Oppositional/Defiant Party cog like Boebert.

Yeah, I think he was someone who was genuinely willing to work with people and who recognized that government exists to help its people. And if you're a candidate whose platform and/or personal identity isn't based on owning the libs or denying other people's basic rights, I bet we can probably find some common ground and solutions.
posted by mochapickle at 7:20 AM on November 10 [11 favorites]


How can someone who "supports education, LGBTQ+ rights, legal marijuana, better healthcare access in rural areas, ending trade with Russia" support and retain membership in a party so committed to destroying democracy itself, promoting fascism, fear, and hate, and being against any kind of compromise whatsoever? How do you make common cause with those people rather than the other party (which is pretty darn pro-guns and oil to be honest)?
posted by rikschell at 7:59 AM on November 10 [7 favorites]


rikschell, I'm in the adjacent district, but my understanding is that Western Slope politics is very much its own thing. It may not always be as tied to the GOP roots and hatred as other parts of the county. For example, my whole family is from rural northwestern Tennessee, where it's more garden-variety, evangelical, confederate flag, deeply divided racist roots, many parts still stuck in the 60s if not before.

In my county, though, our coroner is elected and has to declare a party. As if corpses care what's on your registration card. The coroner -- Dr. Kelly -- is a smart, thoughtful, normal guy who fully realizes it's absolutely ridiculous to elect a coroner, but it's just how it's done. And in a republican county, he runs as a republican even though he literally does not care. He was primaried by this absolutely bananas magahead local doctor who failed a bid for the local school board and decided to run for coroner instead, having never done an autopsy. She lost. Common sense and decency prevailed.

In conclusion, politics is weird.
posted by mochapickle at 8:10 AM on November 10 [8 favorites]


Tentative bad news on Boebert: she may have picked up 440 votes overnight.
posted by MiraK at 9:23 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


For almost as long as I've been aware of U.S. politics, people have been predicting the death of the Republican Party; the aftermath of the Iraq War and George Bush, January 6th, "[insert demographic group here] won't vote for Republicans," etc.. But no matter what happens they manage to leverage their allegedly* shrinking voting base and/or game the system (gerrymandering, legislation, etc.) to a point where, in the direct aftermath of a violent coup attempt clearly organized and abetted by the G.O.P. at the highest levels (nobody at or near the top was or will be held accountable) and while the party is clearly sliding towards an embrace of proudly moronic fascism/authoritarianism, an election where they might wind up controlling the Senate and Congress (albeit by extremely thin margins) is considered a catastrophic failure. Yes, compared to past midterms it is a bad showing, but nobody of good conscience should be voting for this party in 2022, and yet here we are with the country effectively split 50/50 in terms of representation yet again. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad my gloomy predictions of a Republican wipeout were wrong, but it's still so, so depressing.

* I'm old enough to remember when people said my generation (X) would never vote small or large-c conservative
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:25 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]


Tentative bad news on Boebert: she may have picked up 440 votes overnight.

I vote for not making comments on any of the as-yet-undecided elections until we have final official results.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:27 AM on November 10 [28 favorites]


From the link The Card Cheat dropped: Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, told me that Generation X has now become the most conservative generation, surpassing the Boomers in their rightward tilt.

As a Gen-Xer, this breaks my heart.
posted by cooker girl at 9:52 AM on November 10 [34 favorites]


Colorado followers can watch the CO SOS site here.

And for AZ the SOS site is here, but I actually like Garrett Archer, since he posts whenever there is an update.
posted by nat at 10:05 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


Also a Gen-Xer. And those old classmates I hid on Facebook after they went crazy?

Turns out they all vote.
posted by box at 10:07 AM on November 10 [15 favorites]


Another Gen-Xer. What I said the other day was, while some of us are the heroes in the John Hughes and Hughes-adjacent movies, others of us are the villains in those same movies.

Like the ski douche from Better Off Dead is now in his 50s and votes.
posted by Ben Trismegistus at 10:22 AM on November 10 [20 favorites]


> As a Gen-Xer, this breaks my heart.

Bungee Jump Against For Racism
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:23 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


I don't feel remotely confident saying that the Republicans will learn they need to be more moderate thanks to this, because I don't think they're at all there yet, but... this makes me feel like some seeds are being planted. Crazy as it's felt for years to imagine them moving beyond MAGA fascist bullshit, right now it feels like—even if it's not going to happen overnight—that reversion to mean may in fact happen. And happen before American democracy frays entirely away.

If that happens and the Dems keep getting less afraid of actually doing progressive, spine-having shit, I might not be utterly ashamed to live in this country eight years from now. (Eight feels like a reasonable hedge imo)
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:27 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]


I mean, I wouldn't call DeSantis "more moderate" than MAGA, but he does offer the clear alternative for the GOP - he shows you can still get all the culture war bullshit, but just drop the anti-democracy bit, and it will still motivate the base. Which is cold comfort, but I guess that's better than no comfort? I'm not sure who would be the best Dem to run against DeSantis...definitely not Biden.
posted by coffeecat at 10:35 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


An (extensive) excerpt from yesterday's email from The States Project:
Friends,

We woke up to the best possible news.

Together, we helped flip two new trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota, winning the House and Senate in both states. We helped defend Maine’s majorities in the House and Senate. And, incredibly, control of the Pennsylvania House is possible, with three seats still up for grabs as of this minute.

There can be no more significant validation of the work we do together in the states than these results that so clearly show our impact:

Arizona: It’s still early ... but quite a few of our candidates are leading. Right now, our goal of a tie in the Senate is still on the table.
Colorado: We were part of the effort to successfully protect majorities in both chambers, another pro-democracy trifecta that can stand for our democracy in 2024.
Maine: We successfully protected both the Senate and House majorities, preserving a critical pro-democracy trifecta ...
Michigan: ... we helped build the first Democratic trifecta since 1983! Instead of struggling to defend democracy, the new majorities are poised to start making progress on the issues Michiganders care about most.
Minnesota: This legislature was the rightwing’s best opportunity to flip a chamber and achieve unified control. Instead of giving in to despair, our investment and tactics helped to hold the House and flip the Senate, creating a new, unlikely trifecta. With Governor Walz’s re-election, these new majorities can get to work improving lives.
Nebraska: Vote counts are tight. Preventing a supermajority is still possible.
North Carolina: In the one chamber where we worked, we were able to help prevent a supermajority in the North Carolina House by under 500 votes! ...
Pennsylvania: We were the only major funder in the House, with a goal to flip 12 seats and end rightwing control of the legislature by 2024. So far, we’ve netted 10 seats, and with results coming in quickly, are within striking distance of flipping this chamber!
Wisconsin: Governor Evers’ veto power was preserved by preventing a rightwing supermajority with an extreme anti-democracy agenda, in a chamber where we provided support down the stretch.

Results like these are only possible because people like you were not distracted by the shiny objects, did not follow the herd to the highest profile races, and — more than anything — believed in your ability to have a big impact on our future by getting involved where you matter most: in state legislatures.

Today, know that your support to build power in the states will improve millions of lives.
posted by kristi at 10:36 AM on November 10 [8 favorites]


* I'm old enough to remember when people said my generation (X) would never vote small or large-c conservative

I mean...I'm skeptical of this claim. My older cousins grew up in the 80s, saturated by peak-Focus-On-The-Family Reagan-based consumerist evangelicalism, and they are (not shockingly) quite conservative. The Alex Keaton neocon stereotype came from somewhere....
posted by daisystomper at 10:39 AM on November 10 [16 favorites]


I mean, I wouldn't call DeSantis "more moderate" than MAGA, but he does offer the clear alternative for the GOP - he shows you can still get all the culture war bullshit, but just drop the anti-democracy bit, and it will still motivate the base.

He set up an agency dedicated to making sure that more than a million people are stuck in a legal limbo where even if DeSantis's own government tells them they're able to vote, they face the prospect of arrest and (re-)imprisonment if they do so. He also has never affirmed whether the 2020 election was legitimate and surrounds himself with people who claim it was not.

The only alternative he offers for the GOP is that he's a fascist who hasn't lost yet.
posted by Etrigan at 10:43 AM on November 10 [29 favorites]


Don't forget that DeSantis is also a human trafficker.

Being 'too political to prosecute' is definitely the one weird trick that enables Republicans to literally get away with breaking the law, whether it's DeSantis luring a bunch of migrants onto an airplane with promises of housing and jobs or Trump literally organizing an armed insurrection and stealing highly classified documents (Hey DoJ! Prove me wrong!)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 10:52 AM on November 10 [18 favorites]


As a Gen-Xer, this breaks my heart.

Me too, but not unexpected of a generation that came of age with the emergence of right-wing media (Limbaugh in 1988, Fox News in 1996, etc.). I take heart in the fact that we're a small cohort, I guess.
posted by LooseFilter at 11:00 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]


I am certainly not defending DeSantis (nor as was hopefully clear, suggesting he's more moderate - he's obviously not), but he has clearly distanced himself from Trump. And at this point, not commenting on the 2020 election and not actively supporting the big lie is pro-democracy by GOP standards. My point was just that there seems little reason to hope that GOP will conclude the answer is to go "more moderate" (as one user suggested) when they can look at DeSantis' landslide and conclude he's their answer.
posted by coffeecat at 11:01 AM on November 10 [4 favorites]


My point was just that there seems little reason to hope that GOP will conclude the answer is to go "more moderate" (as one user suggested) when they can look at DeSantis' landslide and conclude he's their answer.

...However, this may be a precursor to interesting times ahead for the GOP in general.

So, in addition to DeSantis, another person who recently distanced himself from Trump is Paul Ryan. And right now, the reactions to his statements I see across social media (which is as close as we have to a window into vox populi right now) fall into three camps:

a) "yeah, Paul Ryan has a point when he says we need to move away from Trumpism. The GOP is getting nuts, we need to get our party back."

b) "Pfft. Paul Ryan was a big Trump cheerleader back in the day, and now he's saying he's against Trump. Typical GOP opportunist."

c) "Paul Ryan is a RINO! All hail Trump! MAGA!!!"


It suggests that the GOP could be up for some very interesting times ahead, especially since so many of the midterm elections that were supposed to be shoo-ins are turning into super-tight races, and several of them were losses.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:28 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]


Julia Davis wrote a piece "Kremlin Cronies Sent Reeling on Live TV Over U.S. Midterm Elections" on Russian political pundits... who also are criticizing TFG: "This is because of the Trump factor, this is clearly his fault. He butted into this electoral campaign too overtly and with his odious nature."

A contrast to pre-election commentary: "Trump generates a lot of hatred in America’s society... the more they hate each other, the better it is for us."
posted by spamandkimchi at 11:39 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]


Certainly possible. Another form of temperature-taking is what the Murdoch media empire is pushing, which is currently anti-Trump, rah rah DeSantis, and the usual culture war garbage. Out of curiosity I looked to see if they were reporting on anything Paul Ryan related, and yes (this is from FoxNews.com):

Ryan said he was happy to see Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' landslide re-election victory and that Republicans would have to reflect on why that dominant performance did not materialize elsewhere.

"I think we're going to have to do a lot of soul-searching and head-scratching, looking through and parsing the numbers as to why we didn't perform as well as we would have liked to," Ryan said. "Ron got re-elected, I'm very happy to see that. It was a mixed blessing night, but we should have done better than we did."


Anyway, I agree it will be interesting times ahead. Somewhere (NPR or NYTimes The Daily pod) someone pointed out that if, as is likely, the GOP have a very slim margin the House, that will mean various cliques will form and be able to throw their weight around like Manchin/Sinema have the past two years. So, I like the odds of the GOP self-cannibalizing themselves.
posted by coffeecat at 11:40 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]


I'm old enough to remember when people said my generation (X) would never vote small or large-c conservative

As a gen-Xer who grew up in Southern California, I can remember walking past a white power rally in the quad of my high school at the time (Garden Grove HS).

How do I know it was a white power rally? Because they shouted "White Power!" in unison as I was walking past.
posted by ishmael at 11:46 AM on November 10 [12 favorites]


Who was it? Someone did a whole documentary about how people like John McCain started saying they needed a more moderate stance after 2012, and Bannon came along and was like "F that!". It had that vid where McCain told that lady to stop spouting off about the Obama-Muslim-Secret?

And its not like this is the first time the right wing tried a coup.

The best we can do is get TFG convicted under the Espionage Act, cut the head off the current snake. Deal with the other snake later...
posted by The Power Nap at 11:48 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]


I wouldn't call DeSantis "more moderate" than MAGA, but he does offer the clear alternative for the GOP - he shows you can still get all the culture war bullshit, but just drop the anti-democracy bit, and it will still motivate the base.

He can motivate the base in Florida, and probably nationwide, but I'm not sure he's going to be appealing to a national voter base.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:53 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


I'm old enough to remember when people said my generation (X) would never vote small or large-c conservative

I'm also old enough to remember when people were saying that they didn't know what the hell was up with us and they couldn't figure us out. Some people remember us as being conservative, others as being liberal. We were latchkey kids, we were opposed to selling out, but we were also idolizing Gordon Gekko and Alex P. Keaton.

The big issues I remember discussed by fellow Gen-Xers when I was in my 20s were how the job market was being hosed (largely because Boomers weren't getting out of the way) and how congress was going to gut Social Security. I also personally knew a lot of people who were petrified about the prospect of Global Thermonuclear War (although that became less of a concern after the Berlin Wall came down).

Earlier I would have assumed those were universal concerns to my generation, and wondered why some people shifted right. But I've come to realize - the concerns were universal, but the response to those concerns probably wasn't:

* Some people chose to deal with Social Security being in danger by becoming politically active and voting for candidates who would preserve it. But others apparently chose to deal with that by assuming it would just be gone, so they may as well build their own personal wealth so as to minimize the damage.

* Some people's fear of Global Thermonuclear War drove them to an anti-nuke and anti-war position, supporting diplomatic responses to issues and arms control. But others seem to have been driven into a "well then we need to beef up our defense" position.

...I think that this is the kind of thing that happens with every generation, where the pressures facing them are only half of a person's makeup; how they respond to those pressures is the real wild card.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:55 AM on November 10 [16 favorites]


I'm still hoping for the possibility that Democrats will pick up a handful of the remaining tight races and keep the House Majority but worst case scenario it will be a Republican majority by the smallest of margins and largely dependent on incoming NY Republican Congresspeople many of which have very narrow margins and will likely lose reelection in a presidential election year unless the Republican candidate has amazing coattails.

Circular firing squad in the House Republican caucus will almost certainly take at least a few weeks to resolve and will likely see McCarthy deposed from his leadership position as Scalise will see this as his chance. McCarthy is apparently trying to line up his supporters but the donor class will not be happy with the ROI on their fundraising when all they can hope to get would be to block any Democratic legislation. Hell they could accomplish the same thing just by donating to Sinema and Manchin. Other than promising key allies the ability to be a chairman of some plum committee he's not got a lot he can promise and deliver on.

Debt ceiling negotiations will be an opportunity to extract the pound of flesh but otherwise it's basically obstruction mode and hope their voters don't get mad at them for accomplishing absolutely nothing of value to conservative voters. Hell it's not even clear that they can get enough support internally to waste everyone's time with endless investigations of the Biden administration.

Putin doesn't even get much from his interference as there are a decent number of Republicans still hawkish on Russia who realize that the Ukraine is an excellent way to a) make money for defense sector buddies and b) bleed Russia white without actually having to put a single boot on the ground. And it's not like China would suddenly get a free rein to push into Taiwan under the next congress either.
posted by vuron at 11:56 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]


At least Mike Lee went from +41 in 2016 to only +15 in 2022.

And I didn’t realize when I posted it, but apparently that is the closest Senatorial race in Utah in over 50 years. Fuck Mike Lee.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:03 PM on November 10 [9 favorites]


NYT: Why the Red Wave Didn’t Materialize By Sohrab Ahmari

When it came down to it, the Republican Party offered ordinary American workers little that might have bolstered their power or leveled the economic playing field. That failure helped dash conservative hopes for a clean Republican sweep.

[...]

What sort of national vision did the Republican Party offer working Americans in 2022?

It’s hard to say, really. The best I can come up with is something like this: Hand us the keys to government, but don’t expect us to give you anything in return.

[...]

Correctly perceiving working- and middle-class discontent with corporate power and economic insecurity, Republicans in 2022 tried to channel it into cultural grievances, ginning up outrage over “woke” sensitivity trainings in the workplace, for instance. A much more effective way to check corporate power would actually be to empower workers — which is what unions do best. Instead, the right continued to pursue its old program of undermining the New Deal.

Fake G.O.P. populism challenged “woke capital” — companies that it believed had become overly politically correct — but didn’t dare touch the power of corporate America to coerce workers and consumers, or the power of private equity and hedge funds to hollow out the real economy, which employs workers for useful products and services — or used to, anyway. The Republican Party remained as hostile as ever to collective bargaining as a new wave of labor militancy swept the private economy.


Ahmari, of course, is a traditional Catholic conservative ideologue, but that strand of conservatism's less than unfriendly stance towards labor and the working class is still firmly marginalized by the Chamber of Commerce plutocracy set.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:25 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]


As a Gen-Xer, this breaks my heart
I pretty much wrote off my generation when I came out and transitioned. At least in the otherwise liberal cohort of friends I had, there just didn't seem to be full awareness of intersectionality of identity. Perhaps that's unfair, but my own experience is that I don't feel safe with my fellow Gen-Xers anymore. Online safe spaces like Metafilter are an important exception.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 1:33 PM on November 10 [26 favorites]


Reporter Anna Lynn Winfrey is in Pueblo County, one of the areas still counting votes in Colorado. But she and others have stressed that we may not know the final result for days.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:37 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]


I grew up gay in the 1980s. It comes as absolutely no surprise to me that my cohort is rife with assholes.

But.

Amidst the bullying, the snide remarks, the deeply ingrained intolerance that I dealt with growing up, there were signs of hope. There were people who refused to hide anymore, who demanded their rights. There were people who quietly, steadfastly insisted on being themselves, and not lying. There were people who had no reason to get into the fight at all, but who stood by us.

My generation wasn't perfect, we weren't even great. But we were the beginning of something great. We were the start of the movement that saw gay marriage legalized, which was so far from possible when I was a kid that I literally couldn't imagine it. That small percentage of good, decent people helped to change the world, to make it a better place, in all sorts of very real, concrete ways that affect my life to this day.

A whole lot of us were assholes, and they joined the gang of assholes in charge, and of course most of them didn't learn any better as they grew up. But there were, and are, good people my age doing everything they could to make the world a better place. They built the foundations of the progress that came in the next few decades.

And if there were slightly fewer assholes in the next generation and the one after that, if there were more decent people out there making the world better, well, we were part of what made that possible. And this election gives me hope that the current generation of young people isn't going to put up with the assholes being in charge much longer.
posted by MrVisible at 2:44 PM on November 10 [30 favorites]


Having been a student activist (on the left) in the 1990s, I am entirely unsurprised that ironic detachment in many cases turned into more explicit conservativism.
posted by eviemath at 3:12 PM on November 10 [14 favorites]


It's almost like generation cohort labels are constructs that may be meaningful to demographers and sociologists but largely meaningless for understanding and explaining how individuals' beliefs and behaviors evolve over the course of their lifetime!
posted by biogeo at 3:20 PM on November 10 [35 favorites]


The thing about Gen X* and aging toward the right is that, apart from the big group we lost to AIDS, we are at an age when our more liberal members, who are often in marginalized and impoverished groups, are starting to die off of long-term untreated underlying conditions and/or lack of care during acute or severe health crises. Like, say, COVID. It's less that only the good die young than that wealth preserves you into old age these days.

*As always with Strauss & Howe style generation theories, they apply primarily to white American demographics and are not universal.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 3:37 PM on November 10 [11 favorites]


(There was this one year/cohort, three years ahead of me in multiple schools I attended in different states, who were basically everything people say about Gen Z, though.)
posted by eviemath at 3:46 PM on November 10


If you or someone you know voted in the Frisch vs Boebert election, here is a PSA going around on reddit:
CO-3 VOTERS - Check your ballot - you have 8 days to make a correction if it was rejected!

Check either: Colorado SOS or Ballottrax
If there is a problem you can take steps with Txt2Cure
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 5:59 PM on November 10 [6 favorites]


I mean...I'm skeptical of this claim. My older cousins grew up in the 80s, saturated by peak-Focus-On-The-Family Reagan-based consumerist evangelicalism, and they are (not shockingly) quite conservative. The Alex Keaton neocon stereotype came from somewhere....

I'm not sure it was a stereotype: It was a joke on one (good) sitcom, "what if ex-hippies had a Reagan-loving son?" Michael and Elise Keaton were 100% depicted as throwbacks, people who hadn't changed with the time.

The actual stereotype in the '80s was the people who were claiming they were at Woodstock hitting their 30s and 40s and worrying about investment accounts and how to pay for their kids' college.

I think there's a legitimate argument Generation X is, as a group, more conservative (I say with embarrassment and disgust.)

But in the '80s and '90s we were young and earning less money and more likely to vote for Dukakis and Clinton. Bush and Dole appealed most to the 45-60 crowd. The fancy way of saying this is a lot of it is an age effect, not a cohort effect.
posted by mark k at 6:01 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]


I guess the judge in this case waited until after the midterms so it wouldn't influence votes? US judge in Texas strikes down Biden loan-forgiveness plan.
posted by mittens at 6:03 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]


If you are not a progressive at 20, you have no heart.

If you are not a conservative at 40, you paid attention in your twenties and thirties.
posted by delfin at 6:28 PM on November 10 [40 favorites]


US judge in Texas strikes down Biden loan-forgiveness plan.

Clearly the most appropriate and fair thing for the administration to do is extend the freeze until this works it's way through the courts. I seem to recall the forgiveness being offered as a compromise in exchange for restarting payments January 1st. If the administration can't hold up their end of the bargain...
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:10 PM on November 10 [9 favorites]


The political media has substituted polling analysis, which is something only people managing campaigns really need, for substantive analysis of the positions of the candidates, something that voters need.

The linked piece has a lot of space just pointing out how wrong the poll-based pieces often were, about which I've seen plenty so meh. But I think this quote gets to its best point: Is it more important to tell readers who might win, or what might happen if a Republican majority forces the US into default?



Unrelated: It seems no one has mentioned Katie Porter, one of the best representatives from California, popular on MeFi for some of the videos of grillings she gives plutocrats. But she's an ex-Warren student of considerable substance, doing great work even before elected. Unfortunately, she's from Orange County and her re-election is still not guaranteed. At this moment she's up by under two percent with 40% still uncounted. Hopefully the late ballots will skew Democratic in her district too, as it would be a shame to lose her.
posted by mark k at 8:56 PM on November 10 [32 favorites]


My understanding is that the hippies and anti-war protesters were a visible minority amongst the boomers. Kevin Phillips wrote "The Emerging Republican Majority" in 1969, the year of Woodstock. Hunter S. Thompson's famous "high water mark" quote refers to that time as well. The Republicans would go on to control the White House for all but 4 years between 1968 and 1992.

Then, in 2004, John Judis and Ruy Texeria published "The Emerging Democratic Majority", which seemed to influence many Democrats throughout the Obama years. The book and its thesis got beat up pretty bad after Trump won, but I think it's important to remember that trends don't neccessarily proceed in a straight line. After all, the Republicans didn't manage to capture the House and Senate until 1994, and Carter won just eight years after the Phillips book was published.

The crazy thing is that the Judis and Texeria book was published before the Great Recession. I think that if you look at housing/rent costs, education costs, and healthcare costs compared to wages, you can immediatly see an inflection point that started at the end of the dot com boom but then intensified following the Great Recession. The present GOP simply doesn't have anything to offer cohorts affected by those changed economic conditions, and when Democrats don't address them either, less of those cohorts come out to vote. I think Democrats in the Obama years somewhat missed that fact as well; although, they found out the hard way in 2016. Thankfully, they seemed to have learned somewhat from their mistakes.
posted by eagles123 at 9:01 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]


My understanding is that the hippies and anti-war protesters were a visible minority amongst the boomers.

So sure, in the same way that beatniks and flappers were visible minorities in their generation. But there's no question the political will to end the Vietnam War (and to a lesser extent other progressive causes) was higher among the boomers than previous generations.

For the purposes of the Family Ties and Alex Keaton discussion, which I have found I have real Opinions on, the point is the hippies were a public stereotype. The Reagan-voting Generation Xer was not, simply because of age: Family Ties first aired in 1982. Not only were we years away from naming the generation; no Xer was old enough to vote and a majority were pre-teens! Keaton was really just another play on the boomer stereotype, pulled through the looking glass for laughs. Meathead and Archie Bunker, only Meathead's the parent.

The Kevin Phillips book wasn't about young people actually being conservative; it was about the fact that the Democratic coalition (as then constructed) need the White racist vote to win elections, and they lost them with the civil rights efforts.

I always understood Judis/Texeria to be making some assumptions about the stability of the existing voting blocs and adding some basic demographic trends. This was wrong, and even if the Republicans self-destruct in the next couple election cycles the Democratic majority won't look like they said. Texeria at least is not saying "it's only been 20 years, just wait another decade or two!" He's wandered over to AEI, blaming wokeness for alienating voters and ruining his beautiful analysis.
posted by mark k at 10:08 PM on November 10 [10 favorites]


From Dave Wasserman: "I've seen enough: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) wins reelection in #AZSEN, defeating Blake Masters (R)."
posted by yasaman at 10:10 PM on November 10 [9 favorites]


Peter Thiel's Strategy of Pushing the GOP Right Is Just Getting Started [ungated] - "But as disappointing as a Masters defeat would be for Thiel, it seems unlikely that it would be enough for him to give up on his far right project... Even without Masters, Thiel will have four senators–Cruz, Hawley, Vance and Eric Schmitt, the newly elected Missouri senator, whom Thiel also backed during the primary—who are aligned with him ideologically and who are, at least in some sense, in his debt. Whether or not 'nihilistic negation' is a winning political strategy for these men will continue to be an open question. But Trump is poised to run again, and Thiel still has plenty of money to put the strategy to the test."
Thiel contributed exclusively to Trump-aligned candidates, most of whom had taken Trump’s stance denying the legitimacy of the 2020 election. And the vast majority of his money went to the primary candidacies of two controversial former employees, Masters and Vance. Then, after effectively buying spots on the GOP ballot for the two men, Thiel said he would close his checkbook—making clear that Masters and Vance were now McConnell’s problem and daring the Senate minority leader to either prop them up or say goodbye to a possible Senate majority. (Thiel ultimately added an extra $2.5 million for Masters on Oct. 13, after early voting in the state had begun.)

Thiel’s strategy was original and, depending on your viewpoint, either reckless or inspired. With Republicans predicted to gain congressional seats, he chose to focus on moving the party to the right and installing loyalists rather than backing the GOP more broadly. He approached the race like a venture capitalist, making early, high-risk bets that were designed to be financed by other donors.
Factbox: State supreme court elections will shape fights over redistricting, abortion - "The outcome of state supreme court races in Tuesday's midterm elections could have profound consequences for control of the U.S. Congress in the future, as well as abortion rights in several states. The races, typically a political afterthought, emerged as electoral battlegrounds this year, especially after the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in June to eliminate a nationwide right to abortion."

> I am looking forward to working alongside Voters of Tomorrow and everyone else working for a better world, tomorrow and every tomorrow to come.

yeah, nevermind generational/demographic cohorts, but let's hear it for the young folks coming out: so for those arrayed against white supremacists who would make america a patriarchal state again, there is one way out :P and there are more of us than there are of them!
posted by kliuless at 11:00 PM on November 10 [16 favorites]


American elections never cease to confuse me. No, scratch that, all elections confuse me. I can never understand why people vote like they do, though my gut feelings about elections are normally correct (I was wrong about 2016, but not really, since Hillary won the popular vote). So perhaps I can feel what I can't understand.

Obviously it's harder to feel a country that is thousands of miles away. Normally, I would go to the US regularly, but because of COVID, I haven't traveled much at all, and going to a country where it was out of control seemed reckless.

Anyway, I didn't feel a red wave coming. Mainly, I think a lot of Americans understand that the Democrats are not to blame for the multiple global crises and that the Republicans are even worse at reacting to those crises, and also I think a majority of Americans are appalled by January 6th. Not as many as should be, but enough to save democracy, this time round.

I think a big contributor to the confusion is the media. Obviously they love the drama, so if there isn't any, they make it up. But I also think journalists and commentators genuinely see a different world from the one most people inhabit. I say that as someone who once was a journalist. I sometimes hear my boss from then on the radio, or read an article he has written, and I think he has improved. But back then, his notions of what was important and interesting for our readers was hilariously off the mark.
Political journalists go outside the Beltway, or Borgen in my country, as if they were 19th century explorers in the heart of darkness (not the book, the metaphor). Middle aged cab drivers and diner guests are interviewed as if they are shamans or oracles, with special knowledge of the truth of the "people" i.e. someone else.
Instead of the well-payed political journalists and commentators we should look to, we turn to fashion magazines, comedians and niche publications or sites like this one for information.
posted by mumimor at 4:53 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]


Hi, from Georgia. Arguably, both Kemp and Raffensperger benefited from some goodwill from their anti-Trump/pro-(some parts of the)Constitution stance. More importantly I think, and as I had been predicting for a while, Republicans underestimated how many of their voters would never vote for a Black guy (I don't believe the CTE, domestic abuse, lying, or abortion matter to them), and Democrats underestimated how many of their voters would never vote for a woman ("Oh I would vote for a woman. Just not her. Not her either. Or her.")

Some good news in the sadness: Behind Warnock's near-majority, the next highest Democratic votegetter in state-wide elections was not Stacey Abrams for governor or Bee Nguyen taking on Raffensperger for Sec of State, but Jen Jordan, whose campaign for attorney general was almost entirely about abortion rights. Demographics are changing here in Georgia, and every election cycle we get a little bit closer to the state that many of us here know we can be. Maybe it's just that we're steeped in the legacy of the Civil Rights Leaders, but there is a spirit here that will keep fighting and believing that things can get better.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:24 AM on November 11 [20 favorites]


> Fuck Mike Lee.

What It Means to Be a Republican Today - "Evan McMullin's lesson on what his former party now stands for—and what it can't stand."
[McMullin exposes] the moral emptiness of today’s GOP. A candidate who’s conservative on spending, values, and national security is under attack for courting Democrats, having been unmarried in his thirties, refusing to vilify Dr. Fauci, affirming that black lives matter, and acknowledging that House Republicans tried to overturn the last election. In 2022, these are the taboos that define the Republican party.
also btw...
@rickperlstein:[1] "When the opposition is organized around doing nothing to help human beings, runs lunatics, and abandons the basic pretense of commitment to democracy, and the result is a tie, this is a demonstration of the weakness of the Democratic Party, not its health. Writing a whole book about it."[2]
posted by kliuless at 6:41 AM on November 11 [10 favorites]


Mainly, I think a lot of Americans understand that the Democrats are not to blame for the multiple global crises and that the Republicans are even worse at reacting to those crises.

I'm not so sure. I think people are too attuned to the effects rather than the causes. My sister, who's hearing retirement was super concerned about her 401k (really sizeable losses this year for most people), her tax rate (I think that one just never ends, and is more emotional than real), and oddly (to me) fear of the cost of student loan forgiveness. In the latter case, i pointed out that the Trump tax cut cost about 750x more.

Her decision was to not vote at all.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:19 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]


Student loan forgiveness doesn't "cost" anything, too. I wish more people would make that clear.
posted by Gadarene at 7:28 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]


I wish democrats would combat the tax narrative by asking people how much of their paycheck actually goes to the government versus corporations. Mortgage? Groceries? Gas? Entertainment? Clothes? Tech? Every cent paid is going to a corporation who pays virtually zero tax on the back of our inflated prices, with golden parachutes for the executives who run these firms.

It won’t break through for a lot but now might be the time to have it break through. I don’t think saying “corporations are using inflation to line their pocketbooks” hits the same as “look at where virtually all of your money goes - is it to the government? Or them?”
posted by glaucon at 8:30 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]


Zooey Zephyr, a progressive, bisexual trans woman, has won an election to the Montana state legislature (representing part of Missoula) and is Representative-elect for Montana's 100th House District. (Looks like it is a pretty safe seat for the Democrats and the real battle was in the primary.) She's 33 and will be the first out trans woman to hold public office in Montana.

The day of the general election, she had to visit New York City for a 3-month post-operative followup checkup. So she found out the election results on the plane. She tweeted:
As I was getting off the plane last night, a stewardess asked what I was so excited about. I told her I'd won my election & was the first trans woman elected in Montana.

She immediately teared up. "My son is trans," she said, & began to tell me about all the joys/fears that had come with his transition. How much happier and healthier he is now. I got to see pictures of her & her son in Paris, the two of them beaming with joy.

She also talked about how scary the world was, but how this moment gave her hope. Then we took a selfie & cried.

This is why we'll win the fight for trans rights. Because we're not a concept to be debated. We're your family, your neighbors, your colleagues, & more.

& if you don't think you know us, rest assured—even 30,000' in the sky—you're never far from someone who cares about us.
(nitter view of a Twitter thread)
posted by brainwane at 8:48 AM on November 11 [45 favorites]


> Republicans underestimated how many of their voters would never vote for a Black guy . . . and Democrats underestimated how many of their voters would never vote for a woman ("Oh I would vote for a woman. Just not her. Not her either. Or her.")

Boy howdy is that the case in Missouri - as we found out, specifically, in the Obama and then Hillary campaigns.

Missouri had been a bellwether state that had voted for the winner in presidential elections for some 100+ years. Then along came Obama and suddenly we were like R+10 of everybody else.

Interestingly, it got worse with time. In 2008 we were R+7 of the entire U.S., then in 2012 it was R+13, and in 2016, R+20 (!!!).

Part of the dynamic here is, you go from a state that is "in play" - meaning that money is lavished and campaigning happens in earnest here - to a state that is "a lost cause" - meaning no one spends a time or visits even once. That probably loses you 5% of the vote right there - with negative coattails all the way down the ballot.

But still, I was astonished about how the bigots and racists came straight out of the woodwork here the moment Obama was elected. It was NOT subtle. They were clearly emboldened, and far more public about their prejudice than I would have thought possible.

And then along came Trump, which only added fuel to the fire.

This isn't a majority of the population by any means. It is maybe 5-10% who are loud and proud in their racism and sexism. And then another 5-10% who are quiet about it but happy to follow along.

But it turns out that 5-10% loud and proud and empowered assholes in a population, and their additional 5-10% hangers-on, can really throw an election . . .

I am hoping we are over the hump on this now, though - maybe not in Missouri, where it's likely to drag on for a while more, but in the country as a whole. There seems to be a "silent majority" now - including a growing number withing the Republican Party - who are disgusted, rather than emboldened, by Trumpism.
posted by flug at 9:10 AM on November 11 [13 favorites]


"When the opposition is organized around doing nothing to help human beings, runs lunatics, and abandons the basic pretense of commitment to democracy, and the result is a tie, this is a demonstration of the weakness of the Democratic Party, not its health. Writing a whole book about it."

I agree, but no Democrat would consider running against a lunatic traitor by actually framing their opponent as a lunatic traitor. They are too polite while trying to be the "better" person, preferring to frame opponents as hypocrites or extremists (which is only saying they are not standing over the trap door to catch them). The playground rule for shaming of an opponent is that it is a compliment from one's enemy, an insult from a guilt-mongering bully in one's own group. However, the goal is selling the undecided voter the message, just like in debate class. Most of the waverers have rejected conservatism and socialism BECAUSE they are embraced as a possibility of a utopia. They reject idealism on grounds of human nature being both good and evil: good if alone, bad if a gang. So many hardcore partisans hate the uncommitted for being undecided and ignore them whenever possible, which is a religious posture originally applying to sinners. It should be noted that most people in work or personal situations consider a purely emotional argument to be an excuse for a failed plan or a substitute for lack of convincing arguments, except in politics or religion, where they shine like a rubies. Most importantly, the right wing has officially walked away from the flag they once captured, instead embracing the crucifix, a symbol of torture and self-pity. But the left has not picked up the flag, having once convinced themselves that patriotic politics wasn't the game being played anymore.
posted by Brian B. at 9:25 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]


> I don’t think saying “corporations are using inflation to line their pocketbooks” hits the same as “look at where virtually all of your money goes - is it to the government? Or them?”

I've wondered why the NDP (up here in Canada) have never tried that or a similar line of messaging, but I also wonder if it's because a lot of people are cool with knowingly giving more money to Tim Horton's for shitty coffee and donuts than they do to the government for, you know, a functioning society.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:26 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]


By the way, this was my first comment in this thread, pre-any election results:

> We'll see how this plays out this year, but I felt strongly the Trump's personal X-factor was the major reason for the unexpected (by pollster) bump in 2016, 2018, and 2020.

> We'll see now if some of that goes away, now


I'm going to say right now, that we have passed a watershed moment in Trumpism. With any luck at all, his influence will be on the wane from here on out.

Not that there won't be more fights along the way - in particular the 2024 Republican Primary - but I'm very hopeful we're really on the back side of this particular horrific episode in our history.

What I saw from my perspective in a pretty right-wing and racist and sexist state, is that a lot of the worst troglodytes had felt themselves very excluded from the political process. They were plenty horrible on a personal level, and their personal friends and family members knew all about it. But on a political level, they very much felt that no one represented them. They were apathetic and stayed home in droves on election day. They had personal grievances but they were not much of a political force.

Then came Obama, which fired up the racists in a way nothing else had for 50 years. Then, much worse, came Trump, who gave all the troglodytes the voice they hadn't had in many decades.

More than anything else, Trump drove enthusiasm and turnout in this group. We were seeing 5% or more turnout in elections on the Republican side - in both primaries and generals - and the vast majority of it was from this end of the spectrum.

The population per se hadn't changed, but the voting population clearly had.

One reason no one had pursued this avenue in the past was, the people realize it can be exploited for short-term gain but there is an inevitable blowback to the approach that will build with time. You do enjoy the short-term gains but after the blowback, you're going to end up worse than you were in the beginning.

So that is Optimistic Flug: This has been the last dying gasp of the old Racist Sexist Homophobic etc etc wing of the Republican Party. There's going to be something of a backlash against Trumpism now and the change we were hoping would happen in the Republican Party post 2012 is now going to be an imperative for their survival. They've held on by the tips of their fingers for longer than anyone thought possible - by a lot of tricks like gerrymandering, discouraging voting, etc. But they are reaching the end of that particular rope and once they run out of it, something is going to have to fundamentally change.

That may be taking my hope too far - a bit too sweeping. But I do believe pretty certainly that we are finally on the back side of Trumpism. No one hates a "winner" more than when he loses, loses, loses and that is exactly what happened to Trump Tuesday.
posted by flug at 9:33 AM on November 11 [19 favorites]


"When the opposition is organized around doing nothing to help human beings, runs lunatics, and abandons the basic pretense of commitment to democracy, and the result is a tie, this is a demonstration of the weakness of the Democratic Party, not its health. Writing a whole book about it."

Over on the Jones thread, I wrote about some sociopaths I have met. I don't think all Republicans are sociopaths, but a lot of them are exhibiting sociopathic behavior, because it has been normalized in the past two decades.
Anyway, what I didn't write is that one has to be extremely harsh when dealing with them, way beyond polite behavior. Otherwise they will run you over without remorse. Shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, remember.
My experience goes way back. I'm talking with my therapist about why I have to engage so often with these people. But most people don't run into them that much, and if they do, it will be in shorter doses, so they perhaps have a temporary bad experience, but then forget. Last year, one of my colleagues, whom I had recognized as a complete sociopath, began to act out, lying and crying. The other colleagues were very caring and forgiving, since they imagined it had to be some freak occurrence, and they were shocked when I confronted him and was direct about his BS. They were also very confused when he shook the whole thing off within days. The thing was, initially I was seen as the bad guy. In a work situation, there is time for that all to be sorted, but politicians can't afford to be seen as bad guys in the same way. Hillary smirking at the debates was a bad look, even though she was 100% in her right, and she should probably have been way harsher at the human level, but politically it would have been disastrous.
posted by mumimor at 9:46 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]


1968, 1977-80, 1993-94, 2009-10, 2020-21

these are the years the Dems have had the trifecta of federal government power in my lifetime . .. 1/5 of my years
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:23 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]


It sure has seemed over the past few months though, the quantity of "finding out" has been catching up to a lot of fuck-around-ers. At least a lot more than in the previous half-decade. All the J6 sentencing. Trump's legal desperation. Liz Truss. Kanye. This week's election. Musk's ongoing public self-immolation. A crypto-weasel collapsing. Seems like there's some satisfying schadenfruede every day, which is a nice change.

Now if we can get Trump to fixate on suicide-bombing DeSantis out of narcissistic rage...
posted by ctmf at 6:39 PM on November 11 [13 favorites]


Now if we can get Trump to fixate on suicide-bombing DeSantis out of narcissistic rage...

Going back to the Dem's treating more extreme candidates as the presumptive nominees before the primary - can they run ads on Fox news treating various Republicans as presidential candidates in the hopes that Trump will start trying to take them all down?
posted by LionIndex at 6:45 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]




Washington 3rd update: While MAGA conspiracy devotee Joe Kemp has closed the gap in recent ballot drops, Democrat Marie Glusenkamp-Perez still leads by 5000 or so votes. Per the Seattle Times, the remaining votes are mostly in Clark County (Vancouver, Washington and environs) where Glusenkamp-Perez is favored. She will probably pull out a surprise victory!
posted by chrchr at 9:13 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]


yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy!!!
posted by ishmael at 11:26 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]


> Demographics are changing here in Georgia, and every election cycle we get a little bit closer to the state that many of us here know we can be. meanwhile, across the way up i-75...
Ohio's Globalized Economy Belies Its America First Politics [ungated] - "You hear a lot of xenophobic rhetoric in the race to succeed Sen. Rob Portman. What you don't hear is how much Ohio has benefited from globalization."
like i wonder what the influx of, say, intel, honda and LG have on turning a state blue: "Nevada, like Arizona and Georgia, has seen in-migration that is making it a more competitive state. Like Arizona, most of the new residents are coming from California. In Washoe County, home of Reno, Nevada, the new Tesla plant and other high-tech businesses are attracting people from the San Francisco Bay area who are bringing with them their famously deep blue politics."
posted by kliuless at 12:12 AM on November 12 [5 favorites]


oh and speaking of globalization...
Mike Huckabee issues warning that GOP could 'become extinct' if they revert to being 'globalists'
Let's hope it doesn't go back to the days of globalists, the days of just basically being servants to the big multinational corporations, that we become the party of the country clubs and the swells – because, if we do that, we are destined to become extinct, and we should be.

We've got to be the party of the working class, the party that cares about America, the party that believes that patriotism is okay, that it's fine to want to make sure that Americans and the American dream is alive and well.

I still think that's a winning message. But God help us, if we go back to the days when Republicans were just the people with the real shined shoes and nice suits and like to sort of pass around the power among themselves, but the people sitting at the kitchen table, having come home from a hard day's work and sweated through their clothes, they never felt like Republicans cared.
posted by kliuless at 12:21 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]


like i wonder what the influx of, say, intel, honda and LG have on turning a state blue

I also wonder how much of an effect the increase in remote work since covid is having on gerrymandered districts. Some of that carefully penned-up and concentrated deep blue might be leaking out into the spread-out pink.
posted by ctmf at 1:02 AM on November 12 [3 favorites]


Senate victory is in sight.

I woke up early on Election Day (my sleep cycle always goes screwy for a few days around the clock changes) and since I was going to be laying there for an hour anyway, I prayed to St. Jude about the election.

Thank you, St. Jude!
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:08 AM on November 12 [12 favorites]


Great news about the senate. THANKYOU to all volunteers that PUT THE WORK IN.

Fingers crossed that NV and GA both get it done.

--

Why did we do so poorly in NY - including in southern brooklyn - (and not just hasidic districts) ? The sclerotic, jobs-for-the-boys NY democratic party at most levels isn't helping!


Read this: Still work to do

https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/9/22/23367687/brooklyn-democratic-party-meeting-ends-with-little-done-uncertainty-for-rodneyse-bichotte-hermelyn

https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/11/9/23450690/democrats-southern-brooklyn-hochul-zeldin

https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/11/9/23450433/max-rose-malliotakis-staten-island-brooklyn-redistricting-election
posted by lalochezia at 5:31 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]


Reminder to please link your urls. Thank you.
posted by eviemath at 5:46 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]


> Why did we do so poorly in NY

@Taniel: "Of the 4 most populous states, the two Dem-run ones (CA + NY) are using independent or court maps. The two GOP-run ones (FL + TX) are using maps strongly gerrymandered by the GOP. The House majority right there."

@hanlonbt: "Seems bad to unilaterally disarm. Why don't Democratic states revert to gerrymandered maps, but create an independent redistricting trigger, modeled on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?"

> There seems to be a "silent majority" now - including a growing number withing the Republican Party - who are disgusted, rather than emboldened, by Trumpism.

@Noahpinion: "Populist movements that encounter unexpected breakthrough success tend to weaken, at least in U.S. politics."
9/Each burst of populist energy seems to fade the second time out. One reason might be that the grassroots impetus behind each populist campaign simply fades over time. Another might be that populist figures discredit themselves through extremism...

10/But I suspect another reason: mainstreaming of ideas. When a populist first bursts on the scene, they're usually the only person willing to champion an idea with grassroots support -- religious conservatism, socialism, anti-immigrant xenophobia, etc.

11/The success or near-success of the populist's campaign acts as a signal to the more establishment politicians, telling them "Hey, here's a big popular cause that no one except this outsider weirdo is embracing."

12/The establishment figures then incorporate the populist's ideas into their own messaging and ideology, which drains support from the populist themselves.

13/Biden canceled student loans and spent a bunch of money on climate change -- not as ambitious as Bernie's program, but definitely important victories for Bernie's ideas, even as Bernie's personal support fell.

14/Reagan and Bush mainstreamed Goldwater's ideas. And it's pretty obvious that many of Trump's ideas -- most importantly, opposition to immigration and free trade -- have made it into the standard Republican canon.

15/But Trump himself is a chaos agent who is also a proven loser. Thus, it makes sense for Republicans to embrace Trumpism without Trump, just as Dems embraced Bernism without Bernie and the GOP of a generation ago embraced Goldwaterism without Goldwater.

16/The big question of course, is whether election denial makes it into the Republican ideological canon in a way that outlasts Trump and his own personal gang. I'm optimistic that it will not endure. But we'll see.

17/But in the meantime, I think the reason you see a number of right-wing activists turning on Trump himself is simply that they no longer need him and the chaos and personalistic focus he brings. Politically he's becoming an obsolete husk.
also btw...
@JabriMD: "Interesting photo. The governor of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund @PIF_en Yasir AlRumayyan (MBS' money man) wearing a MAGA hat next to Trump a few weeks before the midterm elections and an anticipated announcement of a Trump 2024 presidential campaign bid."

@mannyfidel: "'RON DESANCTIMONIOUS' LET'S GOOOO"

> This has been the last dying gasp of the old Racist Sexist Homophobic etc etc wing of the Republican Party.

'defense of marriage'-types are rallying around this exit poll...
@BradWilcoxIFS:
Married men broke Republican by 20 pts
Married women broke R by 14 pts
Unmarried men broke R by 7 pts
But *unmarried women* broke D "by whopping 37 pts"
echoing @rickperlstein: Democracy Takes Another Hit - "Any visitor from Mars would say that we should have crushed the Republicans. Voters should have decisively rejected a party that inhabits an alternative universe and has no respect for half of the human species... The strategy of 'vote for me because the other guy is crazy' has failed."
Sure, last night was not as bad as some other first-midterm elections (see 1994 and 2010). But think about it. The Republicans have openly revealed themselves to be a systematically dishonest, anti-democratic, misogynist, extreme-fundamentalist party, whose members delight in promoting baseless conspiracy theories, forcing women to give birth no matter the costs, humiliating children because of their sexual identity, and stoking race hatred. In overturning Roe v. Wade — thereby showing themselves to be bald-faced liars as well — the Supreme Court’s theocratic majority gave Democrats what should have been the greatest political gift of the past half century. On hot-button issue after hot-button issue — the 2020 election, abortion, guns — the Republicans are on the wrong side of the American electorate. With every year that passes, our demographic advantage (young people) should be increasing. There is even a fatal disease that disproportionately targets people who hold conservative beliefs about science and the government.
posted by kliuless at 8:18 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]


the people sitting at the kitchen table, having come home from a hard day's work and sweated through their clothes

Mike Huckabee's career started at a radio station before he worked for a televangelist, became a pastor, then became lieutenant governor of Arkansas, governor of Arkansas, and a candidate for president and Fox News commentator in 2008. He ran for president again in 2016, but dropped out after the Iowa caucuses.

He's never had a real job in his life.
posted by box at 8:39 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]


Seems bad to unilaterally disarm. Why don't Democratic states revert to gerrymandered maps,

New York Democrats tried to gerrymander this cycle; a Republican-friendly state court (including Cuomo judges) tossed out the legislature's map and there wasn't time to submit another one.

New York seems to have been a clusterf*ck. I'm not one of the commenters that always thinks more progressive messaging wins, but apparently a lot of Democratic candidates in NY leaned into the idea that there was a crime wave to imply they were tough on crime, unlike those other Democrats. This did not help the party at large. In fact, the only area in PA that Fetterman did poorly (relatively speaking) was in the NY media market.

The legacy of Andrew Cuomo continues to hurt the party.
posted by mark k at 8:41 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]


Tiffany Trump is getting married at Mar-A-Lago tonight, though its grounds have been considerably damaged by a hurricane this past week. I await the (inevitable) leaked photos and videos, which are sure to be pure trainwreck-style entertainment, and you know TFG won't even mention his daughter during his father of the bride speech -- or at least not the daughter who is getting married. Here's a wedding rehearsal photo, which some Twitter wags are referring to as "bride and gloom".
posted by orange swan at 1:46 PM on November 12 [2 favorites]


I have no idea how much to trust exit polls, but:

How young voters saved the Democrats in 2022, by Harry Enten for CNN:
While they may not have made up a larger share of the electorate than normal, young voters still made their presence felt.

Democrats would have gotten crushed without young voter support. Democratic House candidates won voters under the age of 45 by 13 points, while losing voters age 45 and older by 10 points.
(Does anybody know how reliable exit polls are these days?)

Anyway - YAY young people! THANK YOU for turning out and voting for a better future!
posted by kristi at 3:08 PM on November 12 [10 favorites]




Married men broke Republican by 20 pts

This is what happens when you let the gays get married!

Joking aside, I would be curious to know if that poll is leaving out "straight" when FOX News talking heads blabber on about married men and women.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:05 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]


WA-3: They called it.

The 538 projection for this race was 98% likely to be a GOP win. It’s another case of Republicans running an extremist in a district that should have been an easy win for them and finding out that voters have limited appetite for people who pal around with white nationalists, election denial dead enders, Q adjacent conspiracists, MAGA loyalists, and other things like that.

Congrats to Marie Glusenkamp Perez and to the voters of WA-3!
posted by chrchr at 5:12 PM on November 12 [27 favorites]


The Boebert/Frisch race has not been called yet. They've taken a break counting votes for the weekend and she's currently up by over a thousand votes.
posted by LostInUbe at 5:24 PM on November 12 [12 favorites]


Yep. It’s important to note that Colorado’s recent redistricting swung her district even more conservative. While a win for Boebert would be expected but disheartening, such a narrow margin is still a pretty stunning indictment of her overall performance. I’m sure she’ll be even more insufferable after this.

Also, there’s a ton of Tiffany’s wedding pictures online. It’s fine, it all looks fine. 45 keeps sticking his thumb up like he’s at a rally but whatever.
posted by mochapickle at 5:37 PM on November 12


MSNBC called Nevada for Masto!
posted by coffeecat at 6:19 PM on November 12 [24 favorites]


CNN has just concurred about Nevada for Masto.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:36 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]


CNN has just called Dems retaining control of the Senate.
posted by cooker girl at 6:39 PM on November 12 [9 favorites]


So does this put putting Joe Manchin out of play into play?
posted by clawsoon at 6:42 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]


Ok, now we still need to win the Georgia run-off. I know everyone is exhausted, but it's important, because it takes power away from Sinema or Manchin. If you can write some postcards or donate $20 (or volunteer if you're in Georgia), do that. We have the momentum, and we just have one last thing to do before we can all take a break for the holidays.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:44 PM on November 12 [26 favorites]


So does this put putting Joe Manchin out of play into play?
It does, but only if Warnock wins in Georgia. If he loses, then it's a 50/50 deadlock, with the Vice President being the deciding vote. If Warnock wins, then there's a Manchin-proof majority.

And I hate to say this, but I've always thought there was a chance that Manchin would switch parties at some point, and I still think that's possible. He's totally craven, and the Republicans would offer him all sorts of goodies to flip.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:47 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]


Also good to keep in mind that 2024 will be hard for Democrats, in terms of Senate races - it would be something a miracle if they didn't lose a single seat in two years - so the outcome of Georgia is still very important.
posted by coffeecat at 6:51 PM on November 12 [9 favorites]


I’m feeling something weird right now. I think it’s… hope?

I know a lot of people here won’t agree with me, but keeping the Senate is my “surely this” moment.
posted by Ruki at 7:10 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]


Democrats Clinch Nevada, the Senate, and a Chance to Be Free From Joe Manchin, by Tessa Stuart in Rolling Stone:
Republicans’ five decade campaign to strip women of their Constitutional rights was answered with backlash at the polls this November — including in Nevada. Laxalt, grandson of former Nevada governor and U.S. senator Paul Laxalt, was the state’s attorney general from 2015 to 2019. During his tenure, he signed Nevada on multiple amicus briefs supporting anti-abortion efforts, despite overwhelming support for reproductive rights in the state. Laxalt, who appeared aware that his long-held views and strong ties to the antiabortion movement could hurt his bid in the pro-choice state, downplayed them as the election drew near.

Exit polls indicate Laxalt was right to worried: Abortion was, by far, the most motivating issue for Democrats who came out to support Cortez Masto: 89 percent reported that it was the most important issue to them. Abortion ranked only second to inflation as the most important issue to voters regardless of party.
posted by kristi at 7:40 PM on November 12 [9 favorites]


Phew. Not counting this as guaranteed yet because I'm habitually nervous, but at least a chance my nerves don't need to make it all the way to the Georgia run off.

So does this put putting Joe Manchin out of play into play?

I hate to be negative, but absolutely not. We needed 52 senators for that. The basic problem is if you cut Manchin completely off, then every other senator now gets veto power. Which practically speaking means Sinema.

I was going to type a bunch about whether you'd prefer Sinema vetoing your bills or Manchin doing it, but the short version is simply I don't know.

What I do know is it's better to keep them both as options. You get some flexibility with each bill then, which gives you a much better bargaining position. But we won't get the emotional satisfaction of giving either one the "My final offer is Nothing, Senator. Nothing" line we all dream of.

Both Sinema and Manchin remain openly committed to not ending the filibuster or expanding the courts, so that doesn't happen either.
posted by mark k at 7:59 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]


Maybe it doesn’t expand the court, but we get two more uninterrupted years of appointing judges, though!!! Appoint them all, Dark Brandon!

Oh, and Mitch doesn’t get his gavel back! Screw you, Mitch!
posted by leotrotsky at 8:51 PM on November 12 [20 favorites]


Holy shit. This year was my first go at writing postcards to swing states; I wrote 250 of them. When I signed up I said I’d be happy to write to anywhere in the country but I guess since I live in Seattle they decided to assign me all Washington residents. So out of curiosity I checked the regions of WA-3 where Perez won against that fascist POS despite the massive republican bias, and it’s where I sent at least half of my postcards. I’m fully taking credit for this one, folks.
posted by Mizu at 9:01 PM on November 12 [50 favorites]


Did Democrats over-performing in midterm elections? Here's why that could be bad news for Democrats.
Subtitle: What Democrats need to change to appeal to MAGA voters.
posted by ctmf at 9:19 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]


I'm petty sure the majority of people who vote Republican do not identify as MAGA.
posted by philip-random at 9:29 PM on November 12 [2 favorites]


Yeah, I had one twitter back-and-forth with a local self-identified republican guy. He took exception to "all of us" painting "all the republican party" voters as MAGA. I told him whether individual voters identify with that or not isn't my problem, all the people the republicans are actually running for office are MAGA. And that should be his problem.
posted by ctmf at 9:36 PM on November 12 [19 favorites]


CNN announced that the Democrats had the Senate during Tiffany Trump's wedding reception.

Does season finale writing get any better than this? I mean, I suppose the only thing that would make it better if the FBI showed up and arrested all the Trumps during the wedding, but this is pretty good. And perhaps the writers are saving that twist for Biden's granddaughter's wedding, which is to be held at the White House on November 19th.
posted by orange swan at 10:04 PM on November 12 [10 favorites]


re: flipping WA-3, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seems like an outstanding candidate and a great direction for the Democratic party.
posted by gwint at 10:23 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]


In addition to not losing a single Senate seat (by numbers, though g'damn it'd be nice to retain GA) my 2nd favorite thing is that every single election denier who could've had power to deny election results lost.

This will only be my 2nd favorite thing unless Boebert also loses, which will be tied for my 2nd favorite thing.
posted by revmitcz at 11:02 PM on November 12 [15 favorites]


my 2nd favorite thing is that every single election denier who could've had power to deny election results lost
Unless I'm misunderstanding the scope of the claim, I don't think that could possibly be true given the downballot offices in every state that have the potential to participate in interference with election results, e.g. governors, secretaries of states, members of state legislatures, etc.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:15 PM on November 12


downballot offices in every state that have the potential to participate in interference with election results, e.g. governors, secretaries of states, members of state legislatures, etc.

My understanding - and I'm willing to be wrong, but I've tried to keep up with the nonsense - is that the races that involved folks who could actually make decisions on who won or lost, listed within that article and also elsewhere, all lost their election bids. They mention a single race - Diego Morales of Indiana winning Secretary of State - but note that it's a deeply red district, so it's unlikely he'll have any effect.

In effect, that sounds to me like no election deniers who ran with hopes or attempts to deny elections will have the ability to do so. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me, but that's what I've been reading and I presented a single link that (I thought) summed it up.
posted by revmitcz at 11:28 PM on November 12 [5 favorites]


The claim is referencing secretaries of state--from what I read, at least, was all the deniers running for election for SoS in battleground states (and there were plenty) lost. Others can interfere too, obviously.

But oversimplifying it, if, after the votes are cast, the SoS decides to deny elections you need a lot of work to put things right. If the SoS follows the law, it's a lot of work to put them wrong.
posted by mark k at 11:32 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]


Relatedly, the Supreme Court will surely be greatly offended by the electorate's impertinence in this cycle. Let's hope they don't choose Independent Legislature Theory as the punishment.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 2:01 AM on November 13 [6 favorites]


Now I can focus on the races I'm hate-watching -

* An outright loss may not be possible for Lauren Boebert at this point, but I'm hoping it at least goes to a mandatory recount.

* Kari Lake (R candidate for Governor) looks like she's about to lose as well.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:51 AM on November 13 [11 favorites]


In Arizona, election officials fight off torrent of conspiracy theories as vote count continues (LA Times via archive.org)

In which Maricopa County Board of Supervisors chair Bill Gates (not that Bill Gates) says: "“We are absolutely not slow-rolling it. And quite frankly, it is offensive for Kari Lake to say that.”

I was feeling like we hadn't heard much about fake stolen elections, so this is probably right on time.
posted by box at 5:14 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]


Maricopa County ELI5 on Twitter. (yes, the real Twitter account, not some clone thanks to Musk stupidity.)

"VOTERS: All legal votes will be counted. Your vote will count equally whether it is reported first, last, or somewhere in between. Thank you for participating.

CANDIDATES: All legal votes will be counted, including votes for you. If you have the most votes in the final tally, you will be elected. If you do not have the most votes, you will have lost your election.

SOCIAL MEDIA BOTS: Your disapproval is duly noted but your upvotes and retweets will not be part of this year’s totals. This is not meant as an affront to your robot overlords, it’s just not allowed for in Arizona law.

DISINFORMATION SUPER SPREADERS: Please read Arizona election law & the elections procedures manual before asking leading questions about how something seems suspicious. There are processes + checks and balances in place to make sure every legal vote is only counted once."

(Don't read the replies in the Twitter thread, the stupidity and bad faith is painful.)
posted by soundguy99 at 5:48 AM on November 13 [30 favorites]


This may be wishful thinking, but given how poorly the election deniers did this round, there seems reason to hope that some (however moderate) legislation regarding election integrity (ideally preventing candidates from spreading misinformation) might get passed.
posted by coffeecat at 7:05 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]


Let's hope they don't choose Independent Legislature Theory as the punishment.

Let's hope not.

I have to mention, however, that in a great twist of irony, the Democratic Party would probably get more representatives in the House if that was the law of the land. Between the unilateral disarmament of independent commissions mostly being a thing in relatively blue states and Ron DeSantis' unconstitutional redistricting after rejecting the legislature's map in Florida, flipping at least two and possibly three districts, there wouldn't have been much of a chance of Republicans taking the House this year.
posted by wierdo at 8:39 AM on November 13


After clinching Senate, Dems eye the unthinkable: Holding the House (Zach Montellaro, Politico today)
Of the 26 House races POLITICO forecasted as toss-ups before the election, just five of them remain uncalled. Democrats would likely need to win all five of those, win the remaining three uncalled races forecasted as “lean Democratic” — they currently lead in all three — and eat into some districts initially forecasted as “lean Republican” to win the chamber.
posted by box at 9:42 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


This may be wishful thinking

Agree with the sentiment, but I'm having trouble imagining what that would even look like legally with respect to the 1st amendment. Some kind of criminal defamation statute with the burden of proof of the 'truth' element on the defendant? Or a much higher bar for "reasonably believed" than most defamation cases.

Because the problem isn't people being able to cry foul if they truly think an election has something shady going on. That's a good thing. The problem is that all the bad faith people jump on the bandwagon and pretend there's some merit in it in hopes of affecting the outcome. The only way to make that stop is for it a) not to work and b) be politically radioactive. I think the courts have done part a) after the 2020 election, and this election shows b) to be the case. There are way fewer "rigged" cranks than last time, and the last few are just slow learners.
posted by ctmf at 9:58 AM on November 13


If an election precinct really did have cheating going on, you better believe I'd want someone to point it out, and for that to be taken seriously and investigated. Because if it wasn't, you know the Republic party would be cheating like crazy.
posted by ctmf at 10:02 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]


I'm petty sure the majority of people who vote Republican do not identify as MAGA.

As long as that number is greater than zero, we can safely assume that "MAGA" and "GOP" are indistinguishable and inseparable.
posted by JohnFromGR at 10:07 AM on November 13 [6 favorites]


Because the problem isn't people being able to cry foul if they truly think an election has something shady going on. That's a good thing.

For sure, which is why I imagine the only kind of law that might pass would be something narrowly focused on outcomes - like, heavy penalties for politicians who encourage their supporters to intimidate poll workers/election officials. Or it would need to be really narrowly worded - i.e. "politicians cannot stoke theories of conspiracy linked to how long the vote count requires when that length is within the normal timeframe range for that state and/or jurisdiction."
posted by coffeecat at 10:18 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]


I'm not sure what thread this fits in, but I feel like there's some kind of doomsday mental illness going around generally. People acting like "F it, the world's ending tomorrow, might as well loot the country/do what I want/go out in a blaze of glory"
posted by ctmf at 10:29 AM on November 13 [6 favorites]


I feel like there's some kind of doomsday mental illness going around generally

With a global pandemic still rolling, climate change more threatening than ever, and fascism globally still on the rise, I'm not sure that feeling "doomsday" is necessarily mental illness. Some pretty scary, massive problems are starting to reach critical mass, and that's going to make many of us much more nihilistic, but that's not completely irrational. (It's never a good idea to be all like this, to be clear, but it's kind of understandable right now.)
posted by LooseFilter at 10:46 AM on November 13 [9 favorites]


With a global pandemic still rolling, climate change more threatening than ever, and fascism globally still on the rise, I'm not sure that feeling "doomsday" is necessarily mental illness.

Seriously. I wish I could share the frank conversations from my doctor's appointments and mental health self assessment checklist in an easily encapsulated bite sized format, because when it comes to the questions like "Do you often feel like something bad is going to happen?" and I answer honestly about them, and then when I talk to my PCP and RN it's probably kind of darkly hilarious.

Doctor: "So let's talk about this..."

Me: "Uh, yeah, something bad has happened, do you want the whole list again? There's a massive global pandemic still happening, I have long covid and I'm exhausted, sore and foggy all the time. Fascism is on the rise. People are increasingly dumb and fighty and our politics suck. Climate change is still happening. Nuclear weapons still exist, and there's a land war in Europe. I have a pretty clear and realistic picture of what's going on in my life and elsewhere on this tiny pale blue dot spinning through an empty sea of nothingness and a lot of it sucks, and they don't exactly make a pill for that, do they?"

I mean it's good that I can still laugh about it or make my care team laugh about it, but here we are.
posted by loquacious at 11:58 AM on November 13 [32 favorites]


Because the problem isn't people being able to cry foul if they truly think an election has something shady going on. That's a good thing. The problem is that all the bad faith people jump on the bandwagon and pretend there's some merit in it in hopes of affecting the outcome. The only way to make that stop is for it a) not to work and b) be politically radioactive.
This is certainly a topic for another discussion but I am increasingly convinced that the way to back away from this precipice we stand on is for polarizing partisan propaganda to be financially radioactive.

As long as there are Fox News and its equivalents minting money by driving increasing political division within western democracies they remain in peril. In the USA we have strong guarantees of press freedom and as tempting as it may initially seem, I'm not inclined to relax those guarantees to go after Fox and its allies - apart from any ethical or principle based objections I may also have, such a weapon is too easily turned around. But I would really like to see advertisers and carriers that subsidize the very profitable right wing outrage machine relentlessly pressured, by consumers and not the government, to face their culpability for the damage they are doing.
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:49 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]


and they don't exactly make a pill for that, do they?

I've heard about some red pills and black pills that have made all those problems worse, as it happens...
posted by clawsoon at 12:49 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]


I'm not sure that feeling "doomsday" is necessarily mental illness.

Certainly not. It's the "and so I'm justified in being a sociopath" conclusion.
posted by ctmf at 12:50 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]


As long as there are Fox News and its equivalents minting money by driving increasing political division within western democracies they remain in peril. In the USA we have strong guarantees of press freedom and as tempting as it may initially seem, I'm not inclined to relax those guarantees to go after Fox and its allies

A first step would be to make them label as "entertainment no reasonable person would take seriously" the things to which they have applied that label in court.

Taking away the court-approved ability to knowingly spread falsehoods and exaggerations would go a long way, too.

Those seem like reasonable limits that you could apply to all news broadcasters.
posted by clawsoon at 12:57 PM on November 13 [4 favorites]


when it comes to the questions like "Do you often feel like something bad is going to happen?" and I answer honestly about them, and then when I talk to my PCP and RN it's probably kind of darkly hilarious.
Psychiatric nurse, assessing me in January 2021: "Do you feel compulsions, like the compulsion to wash your hands too much?"

Me: Hahahahahahahahahahah. I mean, not in an OCD way.
posted by Jeanne at 2:34 PM on November 13 [7 favorites]


Anyway, while we wait for other closely-balanced races to be decided, here's more information about Alaska's timetable.
  • More information on first-choice ballots will be released on November 15th (7 days post-election) and November 18th (10 days.)
  • The updates will include absentee, early, and questioned ballot counts but will not include any information about second-, third-, etc choice votes.
  • Races where no candidate received 50% of the first-choice votes (definitely including the US senate race, likely including the US congressional race, as well as several state legislature races) will be decided by ranked-choice runoff, beginning on November 23rd.
Meanwhile, ex-governor and losing Masked Singer contestant Sarah Palin, who is not currently expected to win her challenge for Alaska's sole congressional seat (but who has not been eliminated yet, either) has announced her selection for her chief of staff and has reportedly traveled to Washington, D.C. to begin work with the "Freedom Caucus." I am not joking.
posted by Nerd of the North at 3:33 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]


ABC News has released a clip from an interview with Mike Pence that's set to air tomorrow evening and in it, Pence says this regarding TFG:

"The president's words were reckless. It was clear he decided to be part of the problem.... [Trump’s] words endangered me and my family and everyone at the Capitol building."

If that spineless toady, who was one to put his water bottle on the floor if Trump did, is speaking out against Trump for the first time, then I think what we're seeing is the dam breaking. The Republican party establishment is turning against TFG. He got them the White House for four years, but since then he's given them one disastrous midterm, one disastrous presidential election, and a second bad midterm. I think they've come to feel he's a losing proposition and that they should cut their losses and move on. What a pleasure it will be to watch an all-out Trump/MAGA vs. Republican guard battle, like a fight to the death between a python and a crocodile. I mean, it'll be repulsive, but whatever damage they do to each other will benefit the rest of us, and if they destroy each other we'll have new handbags a clearer political field.
posted by orange swan at 6:22 PM on November 13 [23 favorites]


And yet I bet they still won't promote the story under the headline 'Chief Lickspittle Finally Cries "Enough"'
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:16 PM on November 13 [1 favorite]


trump will split the party if he doesn't get the nomination - i'm sure of it - i do not see this guy quitting at all, especially as running and winning is his sole chance of avoiding a long stay in the graybar hotel
posted by pyramid termite at 7:17 PM on November 13 [2 favorites]


Plus, as long as TFG is "running," he's pulling in that sweet grift money. He doesn't seem the type to leave money on the table.
posted by SPrintF at 8:27 PM on November 13 [1 favorite]


There's always been speculation that Trump has some sort of dirt on some of the Republican officials and is essentially blackmailing them -- Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz being two of those I've seen specifically named -- and if TFG feels they aren't doing his bidding anymore, he may reveal what he has on them and others. As TFG's niece Mary Trump has said, if Trump feels threatened, he'll burn it all down.
posted by orange swan at 8:48 PM on November 13 [8 favorites]


Fort the last year and a bit there's been a hard push by trumpists to take over Republican party local apparatus, in order to push more election deniers into positions where they can monitor/manipulate voting. It doesn't seem to have announced to much this time (all the important election deniers lost their races), but a hella trumpist party apparatus could lead to another wave of terrible candidates in 2024... Here's hoping, anyway.
posted by kaibutsu at 9:18 PM on November 13


I think what we're seeing is the dam breaking

Republican voters and politicians joined up with a violent white supremacist mob lead by Trump, which ultimately lead to an attempt to overthrow the government, and the media will not hold them to account for that.

Perhaps another thing we're seeing is the media collaborating with Republicans, helping throw Trump under the bus.

The idea is to return to some kind of two-party "normalcy", to protect political ad revenue streams that will come from future elections.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:06 AM on November 14 [12 favorites]


Plus, as long as TFG is "running," he's pulling in that sweet grift money. He doesn't seem the type to leave money on the table.

Trump also is going to hide behind his candidacy to claim (falsely, and in bad faith, of course) that the many ongoing investigations and possible indictments are a "politically motivated witch hunt." In fact, I'm sure he's hoping Garland wouldn't indict him at all if he was a candidate.

If he does announce, though, I predict he'll tip the Georgia Senate runoff to the Democrats.
posted by Gelatin at 5:45 AM on November 14


I predict Warnock wins the Georgia runoff whether Trump announces or not, and that Trump's ability to swing elections based on his endorsement peaked in 2018 and will not return to that level again.
posted by box at 6:00 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


I predict Warnock wins the Georgia runoff whether Trump announces or not

Actually, I agree, because with the Senate already a Democratic hold, the election matters a lot more to the Ds than the Rs, and those who held their nose and voted for Walker in the midterms won't be motivated to show up just to vote for him.

But no matter how you slice it, a Democratic victory will poke another hole in Trump's myth of not being a losing loser who loses.
posted by Gelatin at 6:04 AM on November 14 [2 favorites]


I should maybe clarify that a Trump endorsement can absolutely help someone win a Republican primary, but it doesn't seem to help them win a general election.

If you're a Republican strategist, this seems like A Problem, but I'm sure that smart guys like Marco Rubio and Rick Scott are working on the autopsy solution.
posted by box at 6:56 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


Forgive me if I missed it mentioned above, but it looks to me as if the various state sponsored troll farms, as well as the dark money/kompromat interests are the ones that have turned on Trump?

That's just speculation based on the sturm und drang currently bubbling over in places like r/conservative.
posted by Horkus at 8:03 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


Actually, I agree, because with the Senate already a Democratic hold, the election matters a lot more to the Ds than the Rs, and those who held their nose and voted for Walker in the midterms won't be motivated to show up just to vote for him.

Yeah, "taking the Senate" was why Dana Loesch was willing to put her principles (yes, I joke) aside to endorse Walker. "Holding the Democrats to a bare majority" isn't quite as compelling.
posted by jackbishop at 8:25 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


As TFG's niece Mary Trump has said, if Trump feels threatened, he'll burn it all down.

And now that "it" is looking like the Republican Party rather than America at large, it's going to be a lot more enjoyable to watch.
posted by jackbishop at 8:27 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


Michael Moore annoys the hell out of me sometimes but ...

Film-maker says the salient lesson from the midterms for Democrats is to stop depressing their own vote with pessimism, fear and conventional thinking
posted by philip-random at 8:28 AM on November 14 [20 favorites]


One of my friend's neighbors has had this sign, modified since 1/6
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:42 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


and those who held their nose and voted for Walker in the midterms won't be motivated to show up just to vote for him.

WRT republican voter tunout, I predict the opposite. Having been given a pants down spanking in front of the entire world, they will be desperate to have the smallest win to "reverse the narrative". I'm not a political expert, I just know a lot of MAGA mindset people.
posted by ctmf at 11:31 AM on November 14


One of my friend's neighbors has had this sign, modified since 1/6

MAKE AMERICA FLORIDA (?)

I honestly don't know what's real and what's a joke anymore.
posted by mochapickle at 11:47 AM on November 14 [7 favorites]


WRT republican voter tunout, I predict the opposite. Having been given a pants down spanking in front of the entire world, they will be desperate to have the smallest win to "reverse the narrative". I'm not a political expert, I just know a lot of MAGA mindset people.

Well, maybe, but MAGAs are not the entirety of the Republican constituency. MAGAs were not enough to elect Walker the first time, and more moderate Republican voters who showed up to vote for the governor's race aren't likely to bother.
posted by Gelatin at 12:07 PM on November 14 [5 favorites]


The subreddit r/conservative has been quite something to read this past week. The first day or so, there was shock and horror, and many disappointed comments about Trump candidates underperforming. Many people commiserating about how the GOP had fielded too many "crazy" candidates this time, etc. This tone was already shocking enough. But when Trump attacked first DeSantis, then Youngkin, the subreddit turned on Trump rather angrily. Mind you, this is the subreddit that swelled in ranks after r/The-Donald was banned, so until *extremely* recently it was full of Trump supporters. Now all of these same people, folks with "MAGA" and "Ultra MAGA" and "Trump Conservative" as their mod-given flair, are all unanimously saying things like, "He's a total narcissist, he's gone too far, DeSantis is on our side, he's our best hope to win." I can barely manage to close my mouth as I read these threads.

> Having been given a pants down spanking in front of the entire world, they will be desperate to have the smallest win to "reverse the narrative". I'm not a political expert, I just know a lot of MAGA mindset people.

Winning is *everything* to these folks. That's what it's about. There are a few brave souls in r/conservative, e.g. pro-lifers or die-hard Trump supporters, who are still sticking to their old guns, saying things like, "What do our principles even mean if we're willing to abandon them just to get votes?" but they're getting absolutely buried in downvotes from everyone else there who have all apparently experienced a thunderingly sudden road-to-Damascus type conversion towards pro-choice, anti-MAGA politics that would have been anathema a week ago.

There are even people in those threads pointing out how the GOP literally doesn't even have a platform in recent years because they officially refused to adopt a platform in protest against the 2020 "fraud". I've seen people recalling Mitt Romney's words from 2016 that the GOP needs to stop encouraging the crazies - and they're getting upvoted. I've seen people posting comments in grudging support of Liz Cheney that are highly upvoted, when just a week ago her name was their excuse for ten minutes of mindless regurgitated hate, like "Shut up, Liz" and "Nobody cares, Liz" and "Why are you still talking, Liz". And election denialism in the subreddit is being deleted by the moderators! Unthinkable.

Then again, they're in there now applauding Josh Hawley for saying something about rehauling the GOP today. So it's not like they're opposed in principle to election deniers... they're just wary that it will cost them votes again. Winning is all that motivates them. But maybe that's a good thing, for now. It's the only way they will agree to evolve away from the alt-right crazies, at least nominally. Expecting actual principled conservatism is just too high a bar right now.
posted by MiraK at 2:12 PM on November 14 [17 favorites]


I think this illustrates something fundamental that most political commentators, professional and amateur, of all political stripes, have failed to understand, or at least properly acknowledge. Trump is not, and never has been, the leader of the Right's "MAGA" populism. He simply positioned himself in front of the mob, pointed in the direction they were already going, and said "Follow me!" His entire speaking style is to blather randomly until he happens to say something that gets cheers, then keep repeating whatever it was that got cheers while dropping whatever didn't. I'm sure there are some die-hard true believers in Trump himself, but for the most part the people who shout "I love Trump!" only love that he's said what they want to say and done what they want to do. They have no real loyalty to him as an individual and no real interest in his ideas, which is good for both them and Trump because he doesn't have any.

I've been hoping that the cognitive dissonance involved in realizing that Trump is a loser who is costing the party votes will split the Republicans and render them less effective, but I fear that many MAGA-hats will happily rewrite history in their own minds to convince themselves that Trump was never what they wanted in the first place.
posted by biogeo at 2:27 PM on November 14 [14 favorites]


Winning is *everything* to these folks.

this Herschel Walker absurdity is even possible because it's only about the number of seats, not who is in them.
posted by ctmf at 2:44 PM on November 14 [6 favorites]


Well, maybe, but MAGAs are not the entirety of the Republican constituency. MAGAs were not enough to elect Walker the first time, and more moderate Republican voters who showed up to vote for the governor's race aren't likely to bother.

Yeah, there were at least 210,000 Kemp (Repub governor candidate) voters who couldn't stand to/be bothered to vote for Walker while they were already filling out ballots. It's not like they had to put any effort into it at all, and they still didn't do it. Walker's in deep shit, and MAGAs alone won't carry him over the line. (I believe the professional political consultant phrase is "enthusiasm gap.")

Trump is not, and never has been, the leader of the Right's "MAGA" populism.

I think this very much remains to be seen. Yes, the Republicans have been steering ever right-ward for decades, and yes the Republicans have been invoking a return to "the good old days" since Reagan, and yes, "Trumpism" is the ugly racist sexist narcissist id of the conservative movement loosed upon the world, but he did get a whole bunch of people to "switch", and another whole bunch of people to vote who rarely if ever did so before, and there is such a cult of personality around him with the flags and the yard signs and the bumper stickers and the T-shirts and the goddamn red hats and the people who travel for miles to attend his rallies and so we have no real idea if these people will stick around for DeSantis or Hawley or MTG or whoever after Trump's gone because he won't shut up and go away. Will the cult have the same draw and power after the cult leader is gone? Hard to say.

that many MAGA-hats will happily rewrite history in their own minds to convince themselves that Trump was never what they wanted in the first place.

OTOH, you can see the rewriting already in r/conservative and conservative Twitter and other places, but so far it's more "Trump was exactly what we wanted then, but his time is up and his schtick is old and he's alienating too many non-MAGA-hats." (Even when these same people were gleefully predicting a Red Wave thanks to Trump's hand-picked candidates & personal support like a week ago.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:58 PM on November 14 [5 favorites]


I'm sure there are some die-hard true believers in Trump himself, but for the most part the people who shout "I love Trump!" only love that he's said what they want to say and done what they want to do.

And therein lies the dilemma.

Trump didn't invent the modern fascist movement, or racial / sexual / ethnic / religious / cultural pandering; we can all point with ease to examples of it throughout American history. He happily rode down an escalator and said, "Nice political machine! I'll take it." And he took it by proving himself more shameless, personally and with whom he chose to surround himself, than his competitors; no small feat.

He pulled, and is pulling, a reverse Atwater. The problem with the original Atwater progression (making institutionalized racism and prejudice more and more abstract) is that, eventually, the target audience loses hold of your meaning. You're being too vague, too indirect, and you're not hurting the people that your audience wants you to hurt. So the more that you pull that backwards and speak more and more directly in biased, bigoted terms, as long as you maintain JUST ENOUGH plausible deniability to not go full Nick Fuentes... the more they like you. And the fact that Trump _does_ go 90% Fuentes and remain strong is strength in and of itself to his base; they want someone who can get away with anything, who can say those things out loud, who makes it okay for THEM to say those things out loud.

DeSantis is positioning himself as next in line; all the cruelty without the sexual assaults or the blatant criminality as baggage. But the test that he must pass is a simple one. He cannot wait for the torch to be passed to him; he must seize it, from someone who has no apparent limits as to how blunt and crude and defiant he can be. He has to prove that he is capable of taking even lower roads than Trump, and it remains to be seen whether he can manage those depths.

Or Trump could be indicted or stroke out, which is what DeSantis is _really_ hoping for.
posted by delfin at 4:56 PM on November 14 [12 favorites]


CNN projects Hobbs for Arizona governor!
posted by mochapickle at 6:26 PM on November 14 [17 favorites]


So do WaPo and NBC News!
posted by box at 6:33 PM on November 14 [6 favorites]


May the walls of Mar-A-Lago run red with ketchup tonight!
posted by mochapickle at 6:36 PM on November 14 [25 favorites]


Oregon’s 6th has been called for Democrat Andrea Salinas. She defeats Republican drunk driver Mike Erickson, who assured voters that he never asked his ex-girlfriend to have an abortion.
posted by chrchr at 8:27 PM on November 14 [10 favorites]


Sooo...the Republicans will have a 3-4 seat majority in the House then?

What are the odds of being able to drag 4-5 of them across the isle to vote to actually get stuff done? On a semi-regular basis? Are any of their seats almost blue enough to actually threaten them with a credible challenge next time they're up for reelection unless they can point to real wins for their voters? Maybe those reps who's seats are from NY who definitely wouldn't be there if not for the Republican NY judges?

If GA goes to the Democrats for the Senate, are Sinema and Manchin going to read the writing on the wall? Will the Democratic national leadership grow enough of a spine to threaten them to get with the program or face any ACTUAL consequences when they're up for reelection?? (HAHAhahahaha)

Can we keep our fingers crossed that perhaps Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito might actually succumb to age/lifestyle related deaths so we can fix the supreme court without Sinema or Manchin's buy-in?

I have so many questions. And so little faith that the answers will be to my liking.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:14 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]


"What are the odds of being able to drag 4-5 of them across the isle to vote to actually get stuff done?"

So, the Senate is by far the better house to have, if you're just going to have one, because they can push through nominees and judges.

A lot of political pundits think that Democrats will be better off in 2024 with the GOP holding the house by just a few votes in 2022. That will mean that whoever the Speaker is will be beholden to the most extreme wing of the GOP, and will be completely unable to move towards the center. The GOP Speaker will want to, say, vote for tax cuts for Wall Street tax dodgers, and to get 218 members of his 221-member caucus on board, the ultra-right-wing will demand, "For us to vote for it, you also need to include a nationwide abortion ban" or "For us to vote for it, you also need to include free assault rifles in red states" or "For us to vote for it, you also need to include an open purge season on Democratic voters."

Ever single one of these dumb-ass things will be immediately struck down in the blue Senate. But ultra-right-wing Republicans will demand, over and over again, that moderate Republicans put votes on record either backing a national abortion ban, or capitulating to Democrats. And like, CLEARLY it would be better for the GOP in 2024 to have a more moderate record to run in suburbia, while letting the extremists talk big in very red districts but without having achieved anything in the last two years. BUT IT DOESN'T WORK LIKE THAT, because the GOP media machine can't be shifted into neutral. Fox News can't SUDDENLY stop talking about abortion, and can't SUDDENLY shift gears to being more moderate about abortion, even though that would clearly be to the GOP's benefit. Not only have they been hyping people up about the evils of abortion for 30 years, but as soon as they show any weakness, OAN and other further-right media properties will start stealing their audience.

So the GOP is locked in a miserable, self-defeating cycle where they KNOW that they have to tack towards the center to win seats, and they KNOW they have to have a bigger tent (they have known that since the 2012 autopsy, and continuously ignored it). But the GOP's electoral fortunes are deeply tied to right-wing media, which has to get more and more outrageous to win viewers, and "regular" right-wing media like FOX now has to fend off ultra-right-wing media like OAN and InfoWars by NEVER MODERATING THEIR VIEWS EVER. Because when people turn in for the anti-Democrat hysteria, they're not going to stick around because your production values are higher than OAN's -- they're going to stick around because you HATE DEMOCRATS AND CENTRISTS JUST AS MUCH as further right-wing media.

You can watch this on a smaller scale in individual states. Illinois's Democratic governor was kinda unpopular, as governors go, because of all the Covid restrictions. But the Illinois GOP ran a fucking lunatic who ran a "Christian" "school" where they don't teach science (and are trying to convince the state to fund them like a public school), who bragged about kicking out two of his kids for backtalk, who did a goddamned DANCE about how masks were bad, and who was ULTRA extremist on abortion. He was funded by a GOP billionaire (who, after the election, publicly sulked and then moved to Florida, and fucking good riddance!).

He spent a lot of the campaign talking about Democrats being soft on crime, to try to get suburban women to vote for him, but the thing is, a) abortion is 100% a suburban woman issue and he was on the wrong side of it, and b) most suburban women who have been victims of crime have been victims of sexual assault by dudes who look exactly like that guy. It certainly plays with some white downstate voters to hype up the terror of minority crime-doers, because cities are So Scary. But when you're trying to win suburban women? I don't think "omg minorities from the city are so scary and doing crime!" is a great sell when most suburban women's experience of crime is WHITE MIDDLE-CLASS DUDES SEXUALLY ASSAULTING THEM. Like, I know what a criminal who threatens me personally looks like, and it's very much like angry right-wing white guys screaming about how they love guns. And in the IL suburbs in particular, we had a fucking mass shooting last July 4 by a disaffected white dude with guns and right-wing rhetoric, and you want to fucking tell me that minorities in Chicago are the risk to me? Fuck you, the risk to me looks and sounds exactly like Darren Bailey.

Anyway, the Congressional GOP applying non-stop lunatic purity tests for the next two years is probably good for Democrats, since they can stop all the actual dumbass stuff from passing, but they're going to get GREAT talking points for commercials.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:46 PM on November 14 [38 favorites]


where they KNOW that they have to tack towards the center

The sad thing is, I don't think they do. I think they need to strike 3 things from their vocabulary: election denial, abortion, and Trump. All the fascism, racism, and letting rich people do whatever they want can continue as usual and they would be fine.

They probably won't be able to keep that up for 2 years, but I'm already surprised how many losers are NOT screaming about election fraud 2020 style. I'm on the edge of my seat to see if someone gets to Kari Lake and tells her she better STFU about it, right tf now.
posted by ctmf at 9:56 PM on November 14 [7 favorites]


"You know better."
posted by porpoise at 10:21 PM on November 14


Fox News can't SUDDENLY stop talking about abortion

Like they suddenly went from "Trump good" to "Trump bad"? They can turn a corner if it financially suits them. If they were worried about OAN stealing their views they'd never say a bad word about Trump.

(They wouldn't switch to "Abortion is OK". They'd just say it "isn't the real issue" and then yell about Biden raising gas prices and immigrants selling rainbow fentanyl for six hours straight.)
posted by mmoncur at 10:39 PM on November 14 [11 favorites]


sharp pointy objects : What are the odds of being able to drag 4-5 of them across the isle to vote to actually get stuff done?

This isn't speaking to the House precisely, and I'm a bit skeptical that a Dem Senate will codify same-sex marriage this week, as they're currently promising, it's at least a notable goal and they - technically - do have the numbers to do such a thing (according to the link, which apparently even has Republican support), the House - in this case - only needs to vote on whether they agree with the changes made from the one they already approved.

Sure, I kind of feel like this is a "PLEASEPLEASEGIVEUSTHEGEORGIASENATE - LOOK WHAT WE CAN DO!" in advance of what (might?) be a contentious race next month. But if they actually do codify marriage rights like those of us on the left have been wanting forever, that's a solid win and a damn solid reason to keep voting blue no matter who.

That said, every politician running for re-election wants to point to things they actually did, were "instrumental in making happen", and what they voted for. That's on every single side of every single aisle. A politician (regardless of affiliation) that can't point to a single thing they accomplished has to run on "well, golly, I stopped (thing you never read about) from doing (thing it almost certainly wasn't going to do)" and that's hard to rile voters (sidenote : I predict Sinema in AZ is on borrowed time for just that reason).

So, the 4-5 (or more) Republicans who want to actually get something done might actually vote for things that actually get things done even if Democrats are the driving force.

Sure, your MGTs and MAGA loyalists are going to continue running on "owning the libs" but I think this election has shown that only works in places where they truly don't give a shit about much else. But, ho ho ho, it falls apart once you're running against qualified candidates with voters who are even a little bit on the fence.
posted by revmitcz at 1:06 AM on November 15 [3 favorites]


I'd rather have the House majority, duh.

But the really hilarious part about a 219-216 House I've seen forecasted is that there's some smallish risk that we'll be replacing "Biden gets impeached several times" with "There are several failed votes in the House to impeach Biden." Good Lord, the knives that will come out.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:13 AM on November 15 [2 favorites]


A lot of political pundits think that Democrats will be better off in 2024 with the GOP holding the house by just a few votes in 2022.

You are right that a lot of pundits think this but man, I hate this line of reasoning. A Republican controlled house can do real harm in the next two years even beyond its ability to stamp out any legislative progress. Committees with subpoena power in Republican hands will make the Benghazi hearings look like a light warmup.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 4:47 AM on November 15 [15 favorites]


That said, every politician running for re-election wants to point to things they actually did, were "instrumental in making happen", and what they voted for.

Yeah, Republicans were bragging to their constituents about the benefits of Democratic bills like Build Back Better that they themselves voted against. It's easy when your constituents are locked into a dedicated propaganda channel for their news.
posted by Gelatin at 5:15 AM on November 15 [4 favorites]


And in the IL suburbs in particular, we had a fucking mass shooting last July 4 by a disaffected white dude with guns and right-wing rhetoric, and you want to fucking tell me that minorities in Chicago are the risk to me? Fuck you, the risk to me looks and sounds exactly like Darren Bailey.

....So...the majority of the right-wing social media talk about that "disaffected white dude" involved digging through his own feed and pulling up a whole lot of anime cosplay photos he had, and putting together memes about how "the libs think this guy is right-wing....does he look right-wing to you?" and then using that as "proof" that he was an antifa false flag.

So I think predicting how a demographic is going to react - and vote - is a trickier issue than we think.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:44 AM on November 15 [1 favorite]


Sure, obviously we'd rather have the House than not. But it looks like we're not getting it, and it's good to be able to see some kind of silver lining. Republicans don't really mind gridlock, because they want the government to do as little as possible. But if it creates the potential for a better electoral environment in the next cycle, it's not all bad. I just wish we had a better candidate than Biden at the top.
posted by rikschell at 6:05 AM on November 15 [1 favorite]


Ever single one of these dumb-ass things will be immediately struck down in the blue Senate

Oh, I'm sure 1-2 things might get thru.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 6:45 AM on November 15


Oh, I'm sure 1-2 things might get thru.

Name one. As Mitch McConnnell demonstrated, the Senate doesn't even have to consider anything the House does unless it wants to. They won't be so much struck down as never brought to the floor for consideration.
posted by Gelatin at 6:55 AM on November 15 [2 favorites]


I think the Hobbs win, or more importantly the Lake loss, is a very big deal nationally. If Lake won I see her as the odds-on VP pick for the orange goon, should that horror get that far. Lake is terrifying, both in what she's willing to do to obtain power and in her ability to craft her public image. But the loser doesn't want to associate with other losers, so I kinda doubt it happens now. Suck it Kari.

I can't believe how close we were to electing shitheels like Lake, Laxalt, Oz, Finchem, Michels, Mastriano, etc. But we didn't, and damn does that feel good.
posted by mcstayinskool at 7:01 AM on November 15 [21 favorites]




McCarthy elected GOP leader, but far short of votes he'll need as speaker (WaPo gift link), in which Kevin 'My Kevin' McCarthy got 188-31 Republican votes over Freedom Caucus member Andy Biggs (AZ).

Not normally someone I'd quote, but Matt Gaetz said yesterday, "Kevin McCarthy does not have 218 votes to become speaker. I don’t think he has 200."
posted by box at 11:37 AM on November 15 [3 favorites]


*faint* *thud* *ow*
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:37 AM on November 15 [2 favorites]


Rupert Murdoch has told Trump his media empire will not support another Trump run for the presidency. News Corp source: “We have been clear with Donald. There have been conversations. Rupert made it clear to Donald we cannot back another run for the White House.”

"Thank you for your service. We believe we have found more effective fascists to advance our cause, and we'll take it from here."
posted by clawsoon at 11:41 AM on November 15 [13 favorites]




Rupert Murdoch has told Trump his media empire will not support another Trump run for the presidency.

How is Rupert Murdoch still alive?

They might not like him now, but this is the 2014 mid term season all over again (complete with world's smoothest brained congressman Kevin McCarthy struggling to get votes for speaker). They'll back DeSantis until Trump wins the nomination again, and then fall back in line.
posted by dis_integration at 12:22 PM on November 15 [3 favorites]


If they were worried about OAN stealing their views they'd never say a bad word about Trump.

OAN was just kicked off Frontier Communications, much of the former Verizon FIOS territory. After losing DirectTV's funding, it's getting kicked off more and more cable packages. They are trying some OTA scourge, but the reach of that is far smaller. Unless a really deep-pocketed investor steps in and soon, they are basically done.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:26 PM on November 15 [3 favorites]


How is Rupert Murdoch still alive?

Careful avoidance of sunlight, garlic, and wooden stakes.
posted by biogeo at 12:29 PM on November 15 [12 favorites]


Rupert Murdoch has told Trump his media empire will not support another Trump run for the presidency. News Corp source: “We have been clear with Donald. There have been conversations. Rupert made it clear to Donald we cannot back another run for the White House.”
The newsworthy part of that, to me, is not that such conversations are occurring. It's that Murdoch & News Corp feel secure enough to demonstrate their power over the party openly.
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:50 PM on November 15 [12 favorites]


“We have been clear with Donald. There have been conversations. Rupert made it clear to Donald we cannot back another run for the White House.”

This is how they announce that they know he is a Russian spy, without becoming part of the controversy. Murdoch makes a lot of money from evangelical book publishing, but is not sentimental about conservative nostalgia that worships a mythical America. Russia murdered 38 Australians by downing a jetliner over Ukraine, and Russia will play a key role in any Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, which threatens Australia directly. Also, Russia invaded Ukraine because of massive gas and oil deposits claimed by Shell and BP, with existing storage and fuel lines that Russia needs. Bottom line is that Murdoch invests in such stuff, while Trump just wants a future piece of Putin's trillions.
posted by Brian B. at 12:51 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


"So I think predicting how a demographic is going to react - and vote - is a trickier issue than we think."

Um, this is my community. It is my community that was shot up on July 4th. People I have known for 30 years were among those shot. Family members of mine were injured. I spent the entire day on a lockdown while the police searched for the suspect.

I can tell you exactly how the women in the suburban Illinois community reacted to Illinois Republican nominee for governor. In fact, because we just voted on him, you can tell exactly how the women in suburban Illinois reacted to the Illinois Republican candidate for governor. Because it is a well-polled state with multiple media outlets, we have a lot of data on what voters considered the most important issues leading up to the election, going into the election, and coming out of the election.

The Illinois GOP continued to run on scary urban crime even as it was very clear in polling throughout the summer and fall that suburban women were concerned about abortion and restricting access to guns. The Illinois GOP continue to say, no no, what suburban women really care about is urban crime.

Darren Bailey lost worse in the suburbs and among women than any other gubernatorial candidate in the history of Illinois.

So I mean, yes, right wing social media was saying that the guy was an antifa false flag. Good for them, that's not where suburban women voters outside Chicago tend to get their information. The Illinois GOP, like you, believed that writing social media was an accurate source of what people were thinking. It was not, and anyone who was familiar with the Illinois electorate would know that that was wishful thinking by the GOP at best. And everyone in the community that was actually affected by that shooting saw the absolute and utter outrage that exploded after the GOO gubernatorial candidate offered a ham-handed response saying "guns good, gun control bad."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:07 PM on November 15 [15 favorites]


"Ahead of his scheduled rally at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday evening, in which Trump is expected to announce his 2024 presidential bid, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fl.)—one of the few top Republicans who were set to appear at the rally—shared that he’s no longer able to attend.
Gaetz told reporters on Tuesday afternoon that sudden poor weather conditions wouldn’t allow him to fly down from D.C. to Florida, but that he’ll be at the rally “in spirit.” Only, as a conservative writer at the National Review has since pointed out, the weather is perfectly fair in D.C. and Palm Beach, Florida—so perhaps Gaetz is backing out for another reason?"

posted by jenfullmoon at 3:05 PM on November 15 [2 favorites]


Good for them, that's not where suburban women voters outside Chicago tend to get their information.

In my experience, the North Shore Moms group is their primary source of up-to-date info. That’s how Jenny found out about the Highland Park shooter.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 15


How is Rupert Murdoch still alive?

Billy Joel may have been right.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:13 PM on November 15 [5 favorites]


He also may have been crazy.
posted by box at 3:35 PM on November 15 [14 favorites]


Hey, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:44 PM on November 15 [7 favorites]


Turn out the light!
posted by JoeXIII007 at 3:51 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


Don't try to faze me!
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:59 PM on November 15 [2 favorites]


well, ok, but if you need saving just say the word...
I'll be in the bathroom on the right.
posted by kaibutsu at 4:04 PM on November 15 [3 favorites]


So, the 4-5 (or more) Republicans who want to actually get something done might actually vote for things that actually get things done even if Democrats are the driving force.

IIRC correctly the Republicans were 100% against stuff like lower gas prices, insulin price caps, voting rights act and the continuation of child tax credits. I don't really see how anything has changed. The only things that will get through are names for Post offices and stuff all the GOP wants where they can hide in the crowd.
posted by Mitheral at 4:28 PM on November 15 [2 favorites]


"In my experience, the North Shore Moms group is their primary source of up-to-date info. That’s how Jenny found out about the Highland Park shooter."

Which refused to allow the GOP candidate for US Congress for the district to even post there, because he was such an assault weapon stan and such a FUCKING DICKHEAD about a mass shooting that affected many of his would-be constituents directly.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:58 PM on November 15 [5 favorites]


Fudging the topicality of posting to bring local, not national good news from Los Angeles:

Epic Scumbag Sheriff Villanueva has conceded.

Regular Scumbag Mitch O'Farrell lost his incumbent City Council seat to DSA-affiliated union activist Hugo Soto-Martinez.

Billionaire Scumbag Rick Caruso is now 36,000 votes behind Karen Bass for Mayor.
posted by kensington314 at 5:38 PM on November 15 [22 favorites]


Eyebrows: my mention of social media was of course not meant to diminish your lived experience, and I apologize if I clumsily expressed myself.

My concern about social media remains, however - because while your own community of suburban women saw what happened firsthand, other communities of suburban women elsewhere did not. All they have to go on IS what is on the news and on social media. And sometimes social media is a clown show, as we have seen; and that fun house mirror version of the truth can affect people's opinions.

I mean, I live in a city that for 40 years now has had a reputation for being a hellish crime-ridden Sodom no matter what evidence to the contrary people may offer. And even people who live here perpetuate that myth online - if it might get them something, that is (99.9% of the GOP governor candidate's talking points here in New York were about crime). I know otherwise - but people in Ithaca or Mt. Tremper or Syracuse may not. So social media myths may indeed sway them. THAT was my point.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:53 PM on November 15 [3 favorites]


And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Mar a Lago to be born?
posted by kirkaracha at 6:43 PM on November 15 [9 favorites]


Today's release of additional first-choice votes in the Alaska election does not appear to contain any surprises in the races I've been following. The local state legislative candidate I've been supporting has widened his lead a little bit but the races at the top of the ticket remain unchanged:
  1. Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka remain neck-and-neck in first-place votes for the US Senate seat, which observers predict Murkowski is likely to retain when ranked choice votes are taken into account on November 23, despite Tshibaka's small lead in the current tally.
  2. Congresswoman Mary Peltola still has a commanding lead over the other two potentially viable candidates on the ballot for the state's lone seat in the US House of Representatives, Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Today's release of additional votes did not push Peltola over the 50% threshold needed to clinch the election without going to ranked-choice, but at just over 47% of first-choice votes she doesn't need to get that many second-choice votes to cross the finish line. Today's additional votes also did not reverse the positions of the second- and third-place finishers, which is probably good news for Peltola. It means a likely repeat of the scenario that finished the August special election, where 2nd-place finisher Palin carried enough baggage to prevent many same-party voters from naming her as their second choice.
posted by Nerd of the North at 6:51 PM on November 15 [6 favorites]


come to the florida demon tree
for fresh smelling orange crap, naturally
maga bullshit for all of us to see
from the florida demon tree
posted by pyramid termite at 6:55 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


This is so bizarre. He just addressed Eric by name.
posted by mochapickle at 7:03 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


maybe this time he WILL drain the swamp! you never know!
posted by mittens at 7:22 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


he's going to have to stop pissing in it first, isn't he?
posted by pyramid termite at 7:53 PM on November 15 [4 favorites]


If Frisch wins or if they have to do a re-count of CO-3 I'm pretty sure we will all get tired of the words "ballot curing" very quickly.

Also, I think Matt Gaetz floated the idea of Tulsi Gabbard being Speaker.
posted by LostInUbe at 12:10 AM on November 16 [1 favorite]


What I don't understand is, how is Matt Gaetz not in prison?
posted by mumimor at 1:09 AM on November 16 [16 favorites]


So I mean, yes, right wing social media was saying that the guy was an antifa false flag.

Never forget that anyone using the term "false flag" is admitting that the event looks bad for their side.
posted by Gelatin at 4:27 AM on November 16 [7 favorites]




That, my friend, is shade.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:55 AM on November 16 [14 favorites]


Holy shit, I cannot believe that Post cover is real. *chef's kiss*
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:59 AM on November 16 [4 favorites]


Of course that's what we're in for. They'll repent for Trump by focusing on America's Greatest Governor, Ron DeSantis, instead.

That fucking newspaper is already on it.
While this board does not support many of their policy positions, some leading figures in the party — including former Vice President Mike Pence, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, among others — have demonstrated a commitment to the rule of law and an ability to govern.
Ron DeSantis has demonstrated a commitment to the rule of law? Fucking hell.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:28 AM on November 16 [19 favorites]


"Ability to govern"?! Mike Pence?! Pence was on his way to losing his re-election bid in Indiana, a solidly red state these days, thanks in large part to being a goofball as governor and a widely publicized pushing of, and then retreat from, his signature "religious freedom" law that would have enabled discrimination based on the fig leaf of "religious freedom."

In conclusion, Pence sucks, but the New York Times sucks worse, because they aren't supposed to be that stupid.
posted by Gelatin at 11:36 AM on November 16 [13 favorites]


NYT: America deserves a *competent* fascist!
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:04 PM on November 16 [13 favorites]


What I don't understand is, how is Matt Gaetz not in prison?
Florida + "commitment to the rule of law"
posted by Nerd of the North at 12:53 PM on November 16 [5 favorites]


Just so long as the "rule of law" does not include kidnapping people and transporting them across state lines for a photo op. For fucks sake. The NYT editorial board strikes again. They're still looking for the wmds.
posted by dis_integration at 2:41 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]


And the Republican's have taken the House. Ugh

Going to be a shitshow of committee investigations and bullshit for two years.
posted by Windopaene at 4:23 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]


Oh God, you HAVE to read the NY Post news item about TFG's announcement. They've gone all The Onion on his ass:

Been there, Don that

With just 720 days to go before the next election, a Florida retiree made the surprise announcement Tuesday night that he was running for president.

In a move no political pundit saw coming, avid golfer Donald J. Trump kicked things off at Mar-a-Lago, his resort and classified-documents library.

Trump, famous for gold-plated lobbies and for firing people on reality television, will be 78 in 2024. If elected, Trump would tie Joe Biden as the oldest president to take office. His cholesterol levels are unknown, but his favorite food is a charred steak with ketchup.

He has stated that his qualifications for office include being a "stable genius."

Trump also served as the 45th president.

-- Post Staff Report


Great as the text itself is, the article gets even better when you see the actual typesetting/layout of the print edition. It's a fucking sidebar on page 26.
posted by orange swan at 4:27 PM on November 16 [10 favorites]


Um, that link doesn't show what you promised. It does show Fox News plugging DeSantis on Truth Social, though, which is also um, interesting.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:44 PM on November 16


Did they... did they photoshop DeSantis?
posted by mochapickle at 4:46 PM on November 16


Meanwhile, Karen Bass defeats billionaire developer Rick Caruso as Los Angeles Mayor! Caruso had outspent her a whopping 11 to 1.
posted by mochapickle at 4:55 PM on November 16 [16 favorites]


With the House in GOP control I wonder what thing will be compromised away first. Debt ceiling can go up but only if Medicare gets a cut?
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 5:57 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]


Screenshot of the print edition of Been there, Don that
posted by kirkaracha at 6:00 PM on November 16 [7 favorites]


i'd say it's time to get the billion dollar coins out if they won't raise the debt ceiling - this whole business is nonsense and needs to stop

the dems need to understand something - this is blackmail and you never, ever get to stop paying blackmail once you start - they will always try to get more
posted by pyramid termite at 8:20 PM on November 16 [6 favorites]


You know what's not cool? A billion dollar coin.

You know what's cool? A trillion dollar coin.
posted by Justinian at 9:45 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]


Today, departing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said on the House floor, “I have enjoyed working with three presidents.”

Item: She served as Speaker under four presidents.
posted by orange swan at 12:58 PM on November 17 [39 favorites]


Herschel Walker Vampire Slayer (slgrauniad)

Will any percentage of the November voters for Walker be remotely moved by this? Hint: No.

Which leads me to a notion that's been running through my (organically brain-damaged/mentally ill?) noggin' lately. ...

Is/has been fascism a thought/behavior product of the organically-damaged/CTE brain?

It seems to me that maybe, historically and today, fascism has appealed to folks who's own brains have, via culture, bad luck, the brutality of nature, whatever, been traumatically injured physically at young ages, causing them quite unfortunately to insidiously normalize physical head injury and its mental states--and thus fundamentally all human injury.

I keep trying to understand why fascism and proto-fascism repeat again and again through history, and continue now. This notion that culture has been/is determined by physically devastated brains is probably overthinking the whole thing. Even when damaged, of course, people do have agency.

I'll see myself out.
posted by riverlife at 4:13 PM on November 17 [5 favorites]


riverlife: I keep trying to understand why fascism and proto-fascism repeat again and again through history, and continue now. This notion that culture has been/is determined by physically devastated brains is probably overthinking the whole thing. Even when damaged, of course, people do have agency.

I've idly mused about a similar idea, though I didn't connect the thread all the way to fascism: Maybe the tendency to violence that's often seen in CTE is a fallback damaged-brain state that is a useful degraded-mode response to a violent environment.

It's probably not that - it's probably just a random outcome that doesn't show a strong enough evolutionary signal to be selected for - but it's interesting to think about.
posted by clawsoon at 4:21 PM on November 17 [2 favorites]


This is pretty off topic, but the person I know who probably had any number of concussions even before a traumatic brain injury is also one of the kindest and least fascist person I know.

In some good news, the PA house now has a very small democrat majority! The current very republican state house just impeached the Philly DA because they don't like his policies, but at least they'll be gone soon.
posted by sepviva at 5:56 PM on November 17 [15 favorites]


My theory is that Herschel Walker has suddenly realised that Vampires don't vote much because of that sun thing
posted by mbo at 9:14 PM on November 17 [3 favorites]


> ... It seems no one has mentioned Katie Porter, one of the best representatives from California, popular on MeFi for some of the videos of grillings she gives plutocrats. But she's an ex-Warren student of considerable substance, doing great work even before elected. Unfortunately, she's from Orange County and her re-election is still not guaranteed. At this moment she's up by under two percent with 40% still uncounted. Hopefully the late ballots will skew Democratic in her district too, as it would be a shame to lose her.
The LA Times is reporting that Porter has held her seat, though I'm not sure on exactly what basis, as they also report that the results are not yet official.
posted by Nerd of the North at 10:44 PM on November 17 [8 favorites]


With the red wave passed, it seems like it should now be feasible for the DoJ to finally go after Trump and his accomplices with charges for the numerous crimes they have committed.

Garland Names Special Counsel for Trump Investigations

"Attorney General Merrick B. Garland on Friday appointed a special counsel to take over two major criminal investigations involving former President Donald J. Trump, including his role in events leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and his handling of sensitive government documents."
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:32 PM on November 18 [3 favorites]


I'd be curious to know what, if anything, this changes about proceeding with formal charges against TFG. But at least this effectively eliminates claims that the investigations (and what comes from them) are political by all but the most diehard Republican.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:41 PM on November 18


It seems to me that maybe, historically and today, fascism has appealed to folks who's own brains have, via culture, bad luck, the brutality of nature, whatever, been traumatically injured physically at young ages, causing them quite unfortunately to insidiously normalize physical head injury and its mental states--and thus fundamentally all human injury.

It can be their brains, or simply their traumatized emotions from childhood. In many adults, when the little autonomy they feel they own is threatened, they react violently, even taking control and removing autonomy from everyone else. This includes things like masks or motorcycle helmets, but goes double for those categories a control freak parent would have been obsessed with, such as loyalty to the dictator/parent. It isn't a contradiction to them because it isn't based on reason, they were simply taught to solve their anger with control and violence through the example of angry punishment directed at them.
posted by Brian B. at 12:48 PM on November 18 [5 favorites]


Back in Colorado 03, Democrat Adam Frisch has formally conceded to incumbent Lauren Boebert (CNN). There's just 550 votes between them with almost every county recorded -- that's a margin of just .34% -- which under Colorado law triggers an automatic recount directed by our Secretary of State, though Frisch says a recount would be a poor use of resources:
“The likelihood of this recount changing more than a handful of votes is very small. Very, very small. It’d be disingenuous and unethical for us or any other group to continue to raise false hope and encourage fundraising for a recount,” Frisch said. “Colorado elections are safe, accurate, and secure. Please save your money for your groceries, your rent, your children, and for other important causes and organizations.”
posted by mochapickle at 1:42 PM on November 18 [11 favorites]


I was a bit perturbed at the idea that a candidate could call off an automatic recount, but on reading the CNN piece I gather that the recount will happen, Frisch is just declining to take an active role in it or use it for fundraising.
posted by Not A Thing at 2:02 PM on November 18 [13 favorites]


Yeah, I was a little hmph about that, too. A recount will happen either way.
posted by mochapickle at 2:21 PM on November 18 [1 favorite]


> Garland Names Special Counsel for Trump Investigations

I can't help but think this is just going make it easier for everyone involved to continue to kick the can down the road indefinitely. I will be (pleasantly) shocked if Trump is ever indicted or otherwise personally charged with a crime, let alone tried, let alone convicted, let alone sent to prison.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:38 AM on November 19 [2 favorites]




Ya... That's now how criminal investigations work. But good luck with that though.
posted by Mitheral at 10:29 AM on November 19


The Alaska Division of Elections released another updated count of first-choice votes on Friday (the updates include absentee and mail votes that had not been counted in previous totals, but do not yet take into account voters' ranked-choice preferences).

In the US Senate race, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is now leading Trump-endorsed spirit linguist and Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka by a narrow margin. Neither candidate will surpass the 50% threshold needed to avoid instant ranked-choice runoff for the race so the race will go to runoff on November 23rd. Murkowski is widely expected to benefit from the second-choice preferences of the approximately 9% of voters who opted for Democratic challenger Pat Chesbro as their first choice, and is therefore highly likely to retain her seat for another six year term. This has been the expected result since election night.

In the US House race, incumbent Mary Peltola, first elected in an August special election and running against essentially the same challengers in the main election, has again increased her lead slightly with the latest tranch of votes, but remains at only 49%, not enough to avoid the RCV runoff. However, second-place finisher Sarah Palin would need to be the second choice preference of almost every remaining ballot to catch Peltola at this point, so while the race will not be decided until the 23rd, things are looking very good for Peltola to retain the seat. This also represents no significant change since election night, although Peltola's increasing first-choice vote margin continues to raise the confidence level in her predicted victory.

The other statewide race which is not quite decided is the Alaska governor's race. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy is currently sitting at 50.3%, which is enough to clinch the election without instant runoff if he does not sink below the 50% threshold when the very latest mail ballots come in. Even if the race does go to runoff, however, Dunleavy is likely to win because he will need only a few second-choice rankings or exhausted ballots to preserve his current lead.

The final makeup of the state legislature remains not quite fixed, also, with at least a couple of legislative district races not officially settled until the November 23rd final tally.
posted by Nerd of the North at 5:54 PM on November 19 [10 favorites]


[oops! left my source link out of that previous response. here it is.]
posted by Nerd of the North at 6:33 PM on November 19 [2 favorites]


Thanks for the Alaska update, NofN. We have races left to call but I will add that it looks fairly likely we’ll have a bipartisan coalition leading the state senate, and possibly also the house if the moderate Republicans can’t get along with the nutballs (this has happened in the house every year since 2017, but is not guaranteed). I think that it also means the legislature is unlikely to try and undo ranked-choice voting this time around, since the loony Republicans are the ones who hate it and fewer of them are going to get elected this time because of open primaries/RCV.

I’m pretty bummed about another 4 years of Dunleavy as governor (see this Twitter thread or this Anchorage Daily News article for some perspective about the current state of the state…no idea why we’d sign up for another 4 years of this, except for I guess he gave everyone a $3k dividend in October and that didn’t hurt.
posted by charmedimsure at 8:29 PM on November 19 [2 favorites]


from "Huge age gap shows up in AARP poll of Warnock-Walker runoff"
A poll released on Tuesday by AARP, an interest group for those aged 50 and older, found a significant age gap in voters’ preferences in the Georgia Senate runoff election between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former NFL player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock leads Walker by 24 percentage points among voters aged 18-49, while Walker leads by 9 points among voters aged 50 or older, according to the poll from AARP Georgia. The two groups differ in their preferences by a total of 33 points.
I'm not an expert, but that seems like a really large difference.
posted by Nerd of the North at 2:10 AM on November 23 [4 favorites]


What is wrong with old people (like me)? Somehow this reminds me of the original timeless crazification factor blogpost, except all the crazies are +50, and unfortunately the crazification factor has gone way up.
posted by mumimor at 2:33 AM on November 23 [4 favorites]






What is wrong with old people (like me)?

I do wonder how much of it is sheer name recognition. Walker has been a public figure for (good god!) 40 years now, and people who haven't kept up with him recently might still retain their fond 1980s memories of him? Whereas Warnock really only came to public notice in the last campaign, and even then, if you didn't pay attention to the political side of the news, you might've missed who he is?
posted by mittens at 5:09 AM on November 23 [1 favorite]


Football is the entire answer here. UGA football is the primary religion of Georgia, with white nationalist evangelical Christianity really just being a denomination of UGA football. People over 50 remember when Walker was their football god. People under 50 do not and think there are more important concerns in the world.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:45 AM on November 23 [3 favorites]


I can't even imagine thinking that "was once really good at playing football for my favourite team" was either a legitimate (sole) reason to vote someone into political office (especially a high-level one) or a sufficient fig-leaf for ignoring all the reasons they should not be a candidate, much less an officeholder. But when I vote I'm not motivated by using someone clearly unfit for office as a weapon against people I hate.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:08 AM on November 23 [1 favorite]


What is wrong with old people (like me)?

Apart from football, the older a cohort gets, the more of its radicalized/liberal members have died off as a result of marginalization in one way or another (race, gender/sexuality, disability, etc.). Specifically in the US these folks are dying early lack of medical care due to poverty, e.g., un(der)treated long-term health issues, but for Boomers and Gen X*, especially the upper end of Gen X, that also includes a lot of folks who died of AIDS.

The parts of the cohort that are left are the people who are more likely to vote for Herschel Walker and his ilk.

* As always, Strauss & Howe generation typing applies primarily to white Americans.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 7:38 AM on November 23 [6 favorites]


Mod note: One comment deleted. Let's not talk about brain damage lightly.
posted by loup (staff) at 8:47 AM on November 23 [1 favorite]


Exposure to leaded gasoline in childhood has an impact on adult personality traits.
From the article:
In a sample of over 1.5 million people, we found that US and European residents who grew up in areas with higher levels of atmospheric lead had less adaptive personality profiles in adulthood (lower conscientiousness, lower agreeableness, and higher neuroticism), even when accounting for socioeconomic status
I wasn’t making a joke. This is a serious issue that people should be more aware of. The impact has been measured looking at IQ and other data. If you grew up in the leaded gasoline era you are likely impacted by it to some degree.

There are other cultural factors in play, but part of the reason for the over 50 disconnect is that they were exposed to chemicals that caused changes to how brains developed.
posted by interogative mood at 10:20 AM on November 23 [10 favorites]


If my earlier comments hold any water this idea of lead in the natal/childhood environment would be of a piece.

I do wonder what our civilizations might look like today in lieu of thousands of years of one form or another of general damage to the growing brain. I mean, it might even be an error to suppose civilization in such a case?

I deeply appreciate the point about so many liberals, leftists in my GenX cohort having already passed away, as an explanation for why we lean so eagerly into boot licking, but I only have to recall my middle- and high-school compatriots in the '80s to know that we were always mostly fucking fascists, and those of us still around today mostly look back at Reagan's America as the golden time of their lives.

I'd hoped that years of social progress would've helped these folks to grow, but it's pretty much the same people from my high school I see in the 1/6 photos and videos. It's another of my illusions and hopes shattered that GenX could rise above the Boomers. Thank God the kids are allright. Tragic they still have so much headwind to push through.

yes, #notallgenxers, #notallboomers, shit, #notallsentientbeings
posted by riverlife at 5:26 PM on November 23 [1 favorite]


Mary Peltola (D-AK), who in an August special election became the first Alaska Native to be elected to Congress and the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House of Representatives since 1973, has won re-election to a full term based on the results of the ranked choice voting instant runoff held today.

Incumbent US Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has also won re-election, as expected, defeating a Trump-endorsed candidate who challenged her from the right. Prior to the ranked-choice runoff, Murkowski was running neck and neck with her challenger. She was re-elected largely on the strength of second-choice votes from voters who had marked Democratic candidate Pat Chesbro as their first choice. (My personal opinion as an Alaskan voter: I don't expect her to be grateful, even though this is the second time Alaska Democratic voters have held their nose and rescued her from a far-right challenger, but she should be.)
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:37 PM on November 23 [18 favorites]


Ranked choice voting just proved itself valuable in Alaska, as Sarah Palin lost to Mary Peltola.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:39 PM on November 23 [11 favorites]


The news about Mary Peltola is FANTASTIC - thank you both for those updates, Nerd of the North and CheeseDigestsAll!
posted by kristi at 10:17 PM on November 23 [3 favorites]


The Alaska Senate has indeed settled into a bipartisan majority coalition including *seventeen* of the 20 members of the Senate. Senate Leadership and committee leadership is shared between Democrats and Republicans, who are all are at least ostensibly interested in actually governing. So: that’s new. Democrats flipped two seats and ranked-choice voting elected fewer absolute right wing obstructionist loons.

The three leftovers (all right wing and fully bananapants) don’t even have the requisite # of members required for a minority coalition that guarantees them membership on committees, although they’ll likely still get spots on some.

Fingers crossed for the House, but this seems promising and I really hope it doesn’t fall apart.
posted by charmedimsure at 11:12 PM on November 25 [4 favorites]


I can't even imagine thinking that "was once really good at playing football for my favourite team" was either a legitimate (sole) reason to vote someone into political office (especially a high-level one) or a sufficient fig-leaf for ignoring all the reasons they should not be a candidate, much less an officeholder.

Walker tours the inspirational speaking circuit for income (like Ronald Reagan did for corporate arms-supplier America) and he was picked to siphon off enough independent votes to make it a close race. The football part is his fame, used to attract youth listeners at fireside chats on Sunday nights at local churches and other events. He represents team faith generally, but not any particular faith with details, or it starts internal disagreement. The social advantage of evangelicalism is that everything is religious, even sports and politics.
posted by Brian B. at 10:24 AM on November 26 [2 favorites]


re: comments about lead-related brain damage in Boomer and X-er age folks, I'd just like to add that while that's true for the survivors, lead poisoning is also on the list of contributory factors that will kill you early. So lead brain damage vs early death for marginalized groups is both.gif (except it's "both is bad" instead of "both is good").
posted by gentlyepigrams at 10:55 AM on November 26 [1 favorite]


he was picked to siphon off enough independent votes to make it a close race

Sorry to well-actually, but that really is not how this went down. Republicans knew that running the traditional Republican hella racist campaign against Sen. Warnock would not work and could potentially backfire, so they wanted to run a Black guy. But they know that their hella racist constituency would not vote for any of the Georgia Black Republicans they could dig up (e.g., Vernon Jones), so they went looking for some other Black man they could run, and the football star was the only one they could find. Because of some combination of being such a terrible candidate and being Black, he garnered over 200,000 fewer votes in the general election than did Brian Kemp, who actually did pick up "independent" votes because some people think he's a hero for doing the bare minimum to defend our Constitution from Trump.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:09 AM on November 27 [7 favorites]


but that really is not how this went down.

It is still going down and running a black candidate against another is still vying for independent voters because any race issues are off the table to help them to decide. I get that there is a lurid plot to the story, but also a theme that holds true in most divided states where independents decide most things in the general election, not primaries.

Perhaps most significantly for Warnock, the Democrat has greater support among independents, the survey found, getting 54% support among that group, compared to 39% of independents who prefer Walker, a longtime football star promoted by former President Donald Trump.
posted by Brian B. at 8:18 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]


The social advantage of evangelicalism is that everything is religious, even sports and politics.

Another thing that evangelicals love is a redemption story, so you can put forward a flawed candidate and the evangelical electorate will accept them, as long he shows contrition and has amended his ways. As long as he has showed contrition and amended his ways.
posted by ishmael at 9:12 AM on November 27 [2 favorites]


(narrator: "he had not")
posted by ishmael at 9:13 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]


In my observations, showing contrition and amending one's ways aren't a particularly significant part of evangelicals' redemption story in practice, as much as loudly declaring that one is a sinner but has found forgiveness from Jesus. Politically active evangelicals don't seem to need to show contrition or make any changes in their behavior as long as they do those things. This is the problem with "faith alone, not works"; they can behave as hypocritically as they like because "no one but God can judge" whether they have genuinely sought forgiveness, even as they continue to sin publicly. As you say, ishmael, Walker has not shown any contrition or amended his ways, but it does not seem to have cost him much evangelical support, despite him running against an actual minister with an untarnished public image.
posted by biogeo at 9:50 AM on November 27 [5 favorites]


I agree with you biogeo, it is all about faith not works.

But even then, if you push that narrative too many times, your support will thin out, like in the cases of Jimmy Swaggart, Ted Haggard, Jerry Falwell Jr., et al.

Granted, sometimes it takes several 2nd and 3rd chances to get there, but even evangelicals will tire of the routine.
posted by ishmael at 10:16 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]


It feels like the power of a heterosexual "sin" to hurt the career of an evangelical leader has significantly diminished now that they've become so focused on homophobia and transphobia.
posted by clawsoon at 10:19 AM on November 27 [2 favorites]


It is still going down

Yes, I know. That's why I get 25 postcards a day telling me to vote for Sen. Warnock from well-meaning people from mostly white states who don't understand Georgia politics. It's also why all my friends and neighbors gave up large chunks of yesterday to stand in line to vote..

If you don't live here, if you haven't experienced Georgia-racism at least secondhand, if you don't know people who have been wrongfully unregistered to vote because somehow their name got misspelled in the voter rolls or had a mail ballot rejected because "the signature didn't match", if you've never waited in line for 3 hours to vote, it's really really hard to understand Georgia elections.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:30 AM on November 27 [13 favorites]


hydropsyche: If you don't live here, if you haven't experienced Georgia-racism at least secondhand

Funny thing... I've come to associate Georgia, and especially Atlanta, with one of the strongest political and economic Black communities in America. It feels like there's a battle going on, but for one of the first times in American history the Black community in the battle is strong enough that it isn't going to be steamrolled or ghettoized.

One hopes, anyway...
posted by clawsoon at 2:49 PM on November 27 [4 favorites]



If you don't live here, if you haven't experienced Georgia-racism at least secondhand


I get that I'm a white Northerner and there are things I can't access, but I just don't understand the race split in the November votes. Whites went 70/30 Walker. What. The. F???

Were those down-ballot from anti-Abrams voters? I just ... can't wrap my brain around it.
posted by Dashy at 8:48 AM on November 28


Dashy: “Whites went 70/30 Walker. What. The. F???”
Someone I spoke to over the weekend was vocal in the fact they were going to vote for Walker. They also told me that Virginia-Highland, one of the toniest neighborhoods in Atlanta, is "too dangerous" for white people.

Honestly, given that both candidates insisted on running ads during the parade and football, my commitment to being an enjoyable part of the milieu was tested.
posted by ob1quixote at 11:35 AM on November 28 [3 favorites]


I get that I'm a white Northerner and there are things I can't access, but I just don't understand the race split in the November votes. Whites went 70/30 Walker. What. The. F???

Take a look at the CNN exit polls for Trump/Biden two years ago. Same White/Black split, same Male/Female split, same age group splits, basically the same everything.

Which, since Walker is running on a platform of "vote for me, I'm Trump's choice," checks out. Those same people didn't care whether Trump was qualified for office, either.

posted by delfin at 12:37 PM on November 28 [2 favorites]


Whites went 70/30 Walker. What. The. F???

Speaking as a white person in Georgia, white people in Georgia are literally the worst.

Someone I spoke to over the weekend was vocal in the fact they were going to vote for Walker. They also told me that Virginia-Highland, one of the toniest neighborhoods in Atlanta, is "too dangerous" for white people.

But they're not racist because their niece married a Black man and he's so articulate and they voted for Obama both times and would vote for him again, right?
posted by hydropsyche at 3:11 PM on November 28 [3 favorites]


They also told me that Virginia-Highland, one of the toniest neighborhoods in Atlanta, is "too dangerous" for white people.

This meme or whatever is full blown in the suburban/rural wingnuts brain. People have told me they wouldn't come to my neighborhood in milwaukee unarmed, while I walk, gunless, around this apparent hellscape of crime every day unmolested. Some version of this applies to every city I've lived in, a whole class of people who apparently believe cities occupied by hundreds of thousands or more people are uninhabitable zones of submission to criminal domination. An endless talking point on conservative tv and radio is the dangerous urban jungle, laid to waste by unceasing muggings, shootings, robberies, and this media is consumed by people who drive from one sanctuary of whiteness to another, from the sidewalkfree suburban development to the superstore and back to the suburbs, never having to comingle in the street with other people. It's probably naive to think this but I sometimes wonder if America's racism wouldn't be at the least attenuated into just a nuisance if we could force everyone to ride the bus and sit next to people they'd normally never have any reason to encounter.
posted by dis_integration at 9:21 PM on November 28 [7 favorites]


if we could force everyone to ride the bus and sit next to people they'd normally never have any reason to encounter

This is literally one of the main reasons the GOP hates mass transit and I am not joking.
posted by aramaic at 9:52 PM on November 28 [14 favorites]


if you don't know people who have been wrongfully unregistered to vote because somehow their name got misspelled in the voter rolls or had a mail ballot rejected because "the signature didn't match", if you've never waited in line for 3 hours to vote, it's really really hard to understand Georgia elections

Yes, the voter suppression tactics have gotten incredibly fucked. I mean it's always been fucked, but it's now to the point where it often isn't fixable even if you have the time, motivation, and wherewithal to fight back and are paying close enough attention that you should be able to identify any issues in time.

The most fucked part is that if you're white, the rules used to suppress minority voters don't really apply. In 2012 I was living in Oklahoma and had recently moved across town and had to update my registration. Somewhere in that process my name got messed up. I believe it was that my middle and last names got reversed. Other than a minor spot of confusion when checking me in, it presented no obstacle to me. It was just assumed it was a good faith error so they had me fill out a form to fix the problem and handed me a regular ballot. Even if it had turned out I was trying to commit fraud they couldn't have gone back and fixed it.

After moving to Florida, which had passed a strict voter ID policy I ended up losing my photo ID. There is a means to vote a provisional ballot and verify identity but turning in a signature matched affidavit in person at the county election board within three days of the election, but in what should have been an unsurprising turn of events I was allowed to vote a regular ballot after showing them the paper voter ID card. At first they told me photo ID was required, I pushed back and said I was allowed to vote a provisional ballot and the precinct captain popped over and told them to just let me vote normally.

I mean yay for me, I got to vote and have it counted with relatively minimal hassle (though the Florida situation was still bad in that if I hadn't already known the rules for voting without a photo ID I'd have been turned away entirely), but I have a hard time believing that it would have been as easy or even possible if the color of my skin were different.

It was also interesting to note that as soon as I moved half a mile down the street to a precinct that had a much higher proportion of minority and low income voters I suddenly started getting mail from Republican organizations hoping to have their mail returned so that they could challenge my registration. It always had dire sounding crap printed on the front designed to invoke uncertainty and fear about possibly having done something wrong. It's fucking disgusting. I never had that happen when I lived in more wealthy or white neighborhoods. Funny, that.
posted by wierdo at 10:24 PM on November 28 [7 favorites]


> This is literally one of the main reasons the GOP hates mass transit and I am not joking.

The Contact Hypothesis is true: "we find that living with a roommate of a different race reduces White students' negative stereotypes towards Black students and increases interracial friendships."
posted by kliuless at 11:56 PM on November 28 [7 favorites]


« Older Need a Peptoc? Encouragement from kindergarteners   |   Be a Pepper! Newer »


You are not currently logged in. Log in or create a new account to post comments.