IPCC 2023
March 21, 2023 4:27 PM Subscribe
IPCC 2023: All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. If you were born after the 80s, you will experience 1.5°C temperatures.
The Guardian: Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late
The New York Times: Climate Change Is Speeding Toward Catastrophe. The Next Decade Is Crucial, U.N. Panel Says. Wired: Warnings About Humanity’s Future Don’t Get More Dire Than This
Summary for Policymakers
The Guardian: Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late
The New York Times: Climate Change Is Speeding Toward Catastrophe. The Next Decade Is Crucial, U.N. Panel Says. Wired: Warnings About Humanity’s Future Don’t Get More Dire Than This
Summary for Policymakers
What are the magic words one would utter that will make a large number of human beings accept living with a much lower level of comfort and ease … now ?
Threatening that they’ll be forced to do so at some future time, doesn’t appear to be working.
Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them. And unable to do away with something unless a tangible example is presented showing benefits of doing so.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 4:49 PM on March 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Threatening that they’ll be forced to do so at some future time, doesn’t appear to be working.
Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them. And unable to do away with something unless a tangible example is presented showing benefits of doing so.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 4:49 PM on March 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
What are the magic words that would make billionaires keel over unless they divest their fortunes?
Those are the words we need.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:53 PM on March 21, 2023 [18 favorites]
Those are the words we need.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:53 PM on March 21, 2023 [18 favorites]
What are the magic words that would make billionaires keel over unless they divest their fortunes?
A mass order of guillotines and a thoroughly doxxed spreadsheet distributed widely online?
posted by hippybear at 4:55 PM on March 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
A mass order of guillotines and a thoroughly doxxed spreadsheet distributed widely online?
posted by hippybear at 4:55 PM on March 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
The other day I was in the grocery store and saw a picture of some very proud dairy farmers who were promising to get to net zero by 2050.
After the past 30 years of projections, I'm starting to think that we'll get to net zero at the same time we get practical fusion power. I.e. it'll be 20-30 years from now, no matter when "now" is.
posted by clawsoon at 5:08 PM on March 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
After the past 30 years of projections, I'm starting to think that we'll get to net zero at the same time we get practical fusion power. I.e. it'll be 20-30 years from now, no matter when "now" is.
posted by clawsoon at 5:08 PM on March 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
I am not sure the billionaire's fortunes are something that needs to be divested. Their money is of no value if it isn't in circulation. They do need to be made irrelevant though. Whichever is easiest, I suppose.
Mariana Mazzucato has some ideas on how to achieve large scale challenges.
armoir from antproof case - 'Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them.'
Yes, there are a huge number of biases that served humans well 100,000 years ago, which have zero, to negative impact on the lives of humans in the modern era.
posted by asok at 5:11 PM on March 21, 2023
Mariana Mazzucato has some ideas on how to achieve large scale challenges.
armoir from antproof case - 'Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them.'
Yes, there are a huge number of biases that served humans well 100,000 years ago, which have zero, to negative impact on the lives of humans in the modern era.
posted by asok at 5:11 PM on March 21, 2023
I just gave the "Summary for Policymakers" a quick scan... I thought it actually read as kind of hopeful? It's certainly not the prophesy of Cassandra that this thread is making it out to be.
posted by mr_roboto at 5:25 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by mr_roboto at 5:25 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
The typo in the link title in the fpp certainly gives one a different impression on quick browse, however.
posted by eviemath at 5:38 PM on March 21, 2023
posted by eviemath at 5:38 PM on March 21, 2023
A mass order of guillotines and a thoroughly doxxed spreadsheet distributed widely online?
I dunno, I've been hearing the same cries since the late 90s, and exactly zero has actually been done (instead, it's all gotten substantially worse), so I'm not sure that's quite the panacea it may appear to be. I'd be quite happy to be proven wrong, however, so if anyone is feeling up for some, uh, "direct action" now would be a good time.
...or don't. It amounts to the same thing in the end, apparently.
posted by aramaic at 6:17 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
I dunno, I've been hearing the same cries since the late 90s, and exactly zero has actually been done (instead, it's all gotten substantially worse), so I'm not sure that's quite the panacea it may appear to be. I'd be quite happy to be proven wrong, however, so if anyone is feeling up for some, uh, "direct action" now would be a good time.
...or don't. It amounts to the same thing in the end, apparently.
posted by aramaic at 6:17 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them.
It's wild to know how bad it's going to get and also know that people will be still be hopefully walking towards the future anyway, plain old hoping it'll get figured out.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:07 PM on March 21, 2023
It's wild to know how bad it's going to get and also know that people will be still be hopefully walking towards the future anyway, plain old hoping it'll get figured out.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:07 PM on March 21, 2023
.
posted by vibratory manner of working at 7:57 PM on March 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by vibratory manner of working at 7:57 PM on March 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm just starting to read this. How much does the report assume carbon sequestration tech will be available?
posted by doctornemo at 8:10 PM on March 21, 2023
posted by doctornemo at 8:10 PM on March 21, 2023
The response to the pandemic has left me feeling pretty hopeless about our ability to stop or limit climate change. We couldn’t get people to make modest changes like wearing masks, or getting vaccinated. Then there is also the depressing fact that post Katrina Louisiana moved further to the right, as has Florida after multiple destructive hurricanes .
posted by interogative mood at 8:37 PM on March 21, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:37 PM on March 21, 2023 [12 favorites]
It's starting to look like a whole new political economy might come along before the uh hard fork starts, so who knows what the new prospects for collective action could be. I personally think they will be even worse.
posted by grobstein at 8:38 PM on March 21, 2023
posted by grobstein at 8:38 PM on March 21, 2023
the USA is ramping up Carbon Capture, a whole lot on the Louisiana coast, which I guess, also, will not exist for very much longer?
If the geological storage site is appropriately selected and managed, it is estimated that the CO2 can be permanently isolated from the atmosphere.
I just don't think you want to rely on our state to be geologically stable; we have hundreds of thousands of wells in these formations already and our little LDNR let Bayou Corne be exterminated
I mean, one of the biggest carbon injection projects is being led by a failed ice cooler salesman and former congressional aide?
posted by eustatic at 10:25 PM on March 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
If the geological storage site is appropriately selected and managed, it is estimated that the CO2 can be permanently isolated from the atmosphere.
I just don't think you want to rely on our state to be geologically stable; we have hundreds of thousands of wells in these formations already and our little LDNR let Bayou Corne be exterminated
I mean, one of the biggest carbon injection projects is being led by a failed ice cooler salesman and former congressional aide?
posted by eustatic at 10:25 PM on March 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Meanwhile, these ladies have suppressed over 13 mega tons a year by stopping petrochemical plants. The wealth of the USA comes from these plantations, the emissions come from these plantations, and now the USA is going to inject these plantations with CO2? Is that the answer?
posted by eustatic at 10:36 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by eustatic at 10:36 PM on March 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
The science was clear enough twenty years ago.
More science isn't going to alter the fundamental politics at work here.
posted by happyinmotion at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
More science isn't going to alter the fundamental politics at work here.
posted by happyinmotion at 12:15 AM on March 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
Can't find the link, but even 15 years ago all the scenarios rcps -> social pathways required enormous negative emissions tech, such that GHG wouldn'y just peak but actually fall.
So yes need 1) immeadiate decarbonization and 2) to invent negative emissions tech that undoes the last 50 years of pollution and 3) we need to keep as many species and as many of the 10 billion people (alive and in pipeline) as possible
1 and 3 are geophysically possible, but politically militarily difficult
2 can't be ruled out by thermodynamics, but it requires more energy to get those emissions out of the atmosphere than we got to put them there, so even perfect waste-free miracle tech means we need to take all our energy output and run it backwards. I e. we have a civilzation size century long energy debt that needs to be paid by green tech.
Oh, and while we do all this over decades, we need the crops not to fail, because conditions will get worse for a couple of decades after we peak emissions.
So the time to act is now.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 12:55 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
So yes need 1) immeadiate decarbonization and 2) to invent negative emissions tech that undoes the last 50 years of pollution and 3) we need to keep as many species and as many of the 10 billion people (alive and in pipeline) as possible
1 and 3 are geophysically possible, but politically militarily difficult
2 can't be ruled out by thermodynamics, but it requires more energy to get those emissions out of the atmosphere than we got to put them there, so even perfect waste-free miracle tech means we need to take all our energy output and run it backwards. I e. we have a civilzation size century long energy debt that needs to be paid by green tech.
Oh, and while we do all this over decades, we need the crops not to fail, because conditions will get worse for a couple of decades after we peak emissions.
So the time to act is now.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 12:55 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
What do i mean act:
If you own coal mines, oil wells or gas leases, close them and mitigate the leaks. If you are invested in companies that own those, divest, if you are invested in companies that finance fossils, divest.
If you run a company, decarbonize and make sustainable all your products, their recycling and the supply chains that feed them. As a consumer only buy from companies that have done this. Also, all work that can be telecomuted should be.
If you run a government, remove the subsidies for polluters, high damage foods, fossil fuels, stop all coercion and rewards for having large families, stop penalizing people who have few or no kids. Tax the rich progrssively on their wealth, their income and their consumption/pollution and split the revenues between environmental clean up, redistribution to the poor and subsidies for cleaner tech.
If you are a landlord, own land, apartments, houses etc. manage them sustainably, afforest them, retrofit them for efficiency, and then return the land to its original owners and offer to lease it back. if leased back to you, rent them at cost to those in need.
I could go on, but challenges to the fossil fuel industry and the military industrial complex get violent responses from law enforcement and intelligence agencies. before you [redacted] find a way to pursuade or replace those in power by legal and peaceful means. You know, like how US slavery ended by petition, or how haiti got freedom from France with a tweetthread, or how the Nazi's ended the holocaust when someone pointed out their logical and grammatical mistakes. That should do it.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:08 AM on March 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
If you own coal mines, oil wells or gas leases, close them and mitigate the leaks. If you are invested in companies that own those, divest, if you are invested in companies that finance fossils, divest.
If you run a company, decarbonize and make sustainable all your products, their recycling and the supply chains that feed them. As a consumer only buy from companies that have done this. Also, all work that can be telecomuted should be.
If you run a government, remove the subsidies for polluters, high damage foods, fossil fuels, stop all coercion and rewards for having large families, stop penalizing people who have few or no kids. Tax the rich progrssively on their wealth, their income and their consumption/pollution and split the revenues between environmental clean up, redistribution to the poor and subsidies for cleaner tech.
If you are a landlord, own land, apartments, houses etc. manage them sustainably, afforest them, retrofit them for efficiency, and then return the land to its original owners and offer to lease it back. if leased back to you, rent them at cost to those in need.
I could go on, but challenges to the fossil fuel industry and the military industrial complex get violent responses from law enforcement and intelligence agencies. before you [redacted] find a way to pursuade or replace those in power by legal and peaceful means. You know, like how US slavery ended by petition, or how haiti got freedom from France with a tweetthread, or how the Nazi's ended the holocaust when someone pointed out their logical and grammatical mistakes. That should do it.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:08 AM on March 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
Oh, and most importantly, reduce the packaging on board games.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:10 AM on March 22, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:10 AM on March 22, 2023 [10 favorites]
Might be wise to start planning for this maybe not working out so well for us all, while we still have any time and resources left to do so.
I mean, certainly keep doing what you can to stop it, or at least mitigate the worst. I sure will.
But, yeah, maybe also allow for it not working out so well, and figuring out how you can adapt to that kind of world, if required.
posted by Pouteria at 1:21 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
I mean, certainly keep doing what you can to stop it, or at least mitigate the worst. I sure will.
But, yeah, maybe also allow for it not working out so well, and figuring out how you can adapt to that kind of world, if required.
posted by Pouteria at 1:21 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've long thought that the only way to stop climate change is to go back to the pre-industrial revolution. And the more damage we do, the closer we will have to get to that state to do anything about it. Given what we need to do, I can see why people just give up or ignore it.
If you own coal mines, oil wells or gas leases, close them and mitigate the leaks. If you are invested in companies that own those, divest, if you are invested in companies that finance fossils, divest.
Meanwhile, these ladies have suppressed over 13 mega tons a year by stopping petrochemical plants
I mean yeah, this will definitely help the climate, especially if every fossil fuel producer does that. But like absolutely no more oil means:
- no plastic mostly Yay but what about hygiene in medical situations? Can we do that with absolutely no plastic? (Even recycling plastic will create waste)
- no gasoline means horse and buggy again right? If we're eliminating all the fossil fuel mining, we're going to have a big shortage in the electric grid that solar and wind cannot make up, so electric cars would need to not rely on energy from the grid. So we're back to wood-burning steam engines and horses. So no major shipping, everything becomes hyperlocal again. No far travel except by horse or boat, so we're back to that early 1800s situation where if you move far enough away (say 150-200 miles away, only a 2-3 hour drive now), you're not seeing your family for years (upward mobility requires the ability to move far for your job, how do your prospects change if you want to be close to family?)
>even remote work isn't going to help if computers become so expensive due to increased shipping and labor costs (shipped by horse, no machines for mining the metals or building parts), data storage becomes expensive due to increase in electricity costs
- no petrochemicals means no fertilizer (decreased food production), no rubbing alcohol, no sanitary chemicals, loss of many medications (including aspirin and penicillin), no PVC (not just pipes (which itself is a huge deal, we're going back to metal pipes): anything vinyl), not to mention inorganic clothing (the loss of which means we need to increase natural fiber production or we also go back to wearing a lot of animal skins)
- we go back to burning wood to heat our homes? Again, the electric grid is not capable of handling losing fossil fuels as a fuel source. We will not be able to rely on the electric grid to reliably heat our homes, so we must go back to burning wood. Let's hope we have enough supply to heat an entire country in the winter
- we go back to no or very little leisure time. The washing machine took days of chores away from women, having processed food available and ready to eat means less time spent with meal prep. Travel times increase due to slower transportation methods
My point in all this is that I can see how hard it is to convince humanity that they should take these drastic measure. Humanity is most likely going to have to go back to this, and I just don't see alot of people being convinced that its worth it. The world is going to burn anyways, why start a controlled burn now when it gets us to the same place.
posted by LizBoBiz at 3:43 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
If you own coal mines, oil wells or gas leases, close them and mitigate the leaks. If you are invested in companies that own those, divest, if you are invested in companies that finance fossils, divest.
Meanwhile, these ladies have suppressed over 13 mega tons a year by stopping petrochemical plants
I mean yeah, this will definitely help the climate, especially if every fossil fuel producer does that. But like absolutely no more oil means:
- no plastic mostly Yay but what about hygiene in medical situations? Can we do that with absolutely no plastic? (Even recycling plastic will create waste)
- no gasoline means horse and buggy again right? If we're eliminating all the fossil fuel mining, we're going to have a big shortage in the electric grid that solar and wind cannot make up, so electric cars would need to not rely on energy from the grid. So we're back to wood-burning steam engines and horses. So no major shipping, everything becomes hyperlocal again. No far travel except by horse or boat, so we're back to that early 1800s situation where if you move far enough away (say 150-200 miles away, only a 2-3 hour drive now), you're not seeing your family for years (upward mobility requires the ability to move far for your job, how do your prospects change if you want to be close to family?)
>even remote work isn't going to help if computers become so expensive due to increased shipping and labor costs (shipped by horse, no machines for mining the metals or building parts), data storage becomes expensive due to increase in electricity costs
- no petrochemicals means no fertilizer (decreased food production), no rubbing alcohol, no sanitary chemicals, loss of many medications (including aspirin and penicillin), no PVC (not just pipes (which itself is a huge deal, we're going back to metal pipes): anything vinyl), not to mention inorganic clothing (the loss of which means we need to increase natural fiber production or we also go back to wearing a lot of animal skins)
- we go back to burning wood to heat our homes? Again, the electric grid is not capable of handling losing fossil fuels as a fuel source. We will not be able to rely on the electric grid to reliably heat our homes, so we must go back to burning wood. Let's hope we have enough supply to heat an entire country in the winter
- we go back to no or very little leisure time. The washing machine took days of chores away from women, having processed food available and ready to eat means less time spent with meal prep. Travel times increase due to slower transportation methods
My point in all this is that I can see how hard it is to convince humanity that they should take these drastic measure. Humanity is most likely going to have to go back to this, and I just don't see alot of people being convinced that its worth it. The world is going to burn anyways, why start a controlled burn now when it gets us to the same place.
posted by LizBoBiz at 3:43 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Guess we showed Jimmy Carter with his rooftop solar panels and Al Gore with his Inconvenient Truths, didn't we? Bring on hell world, we deserve no less!
posted by nofundy at 4:19 AM on March 22, 2023
posted by nofundy at 4:19 AM on March 22, 2023
(1) I think any discussion is great, so don't let my cynicism in the following imply that I'm against any opportunity to 'work the problem'
(2) I also think political situations are highly fluid. I don't think the current republican death cult has a future with the success its had in its recent past. (but really who knows?)
(3) I think the real issue is that there are much harder technical limits than are widely understood. And they're contingent in ways that make things harder, not easier. (Seriously, a +6000% change in anything you have to mine in a decade is daunting).
(4) So it's highly unlikely we're talking about decoupling and instead we're talking about degrowth. If we're candid, degrowth means DEATH PANELS! (sorry) well, it at least means 'less life panels'. We need to start having that conversation in our green politics. That's going to be really hard. I think some people will be sanguine about it. Many have already internalized it, but it's going to be different than anything we've done before.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 5:03 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
(2) I also think political situations are highly fluid. I don't think the current republican death cult has a future with the success its had in its recent past. (but really who knows?)
(3) I think the real issue is that there are much harder technical limits than are widely understood. And they're contingent in ways that make things harder, not easier. (Seriously, a +6000% change in anything you have to mine in a decade is daunting).
(4) So it's highly unlikely we're talking about decoupling and instead we're talking about degrowth. If we're candid, degrowth means DEATH PANELS! (sorry) well, it at least means 'less life panels'. We need to start having that conversation in our green politics. That's going to be really hard. I think some people will be sanguine about it. Many have already internalized it, but it's going to be different than anything we've done before.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 5:03 AM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
One huge immediate thing that would help is promoting remote work. Remember during the pandemic when people stayed home and pollution levels dropped significantly?
No, no, let's keep making millions of people drive to a building to sit together at desks.
Of course, this isn't a panacea, but it would help a lot. It's one thing we could do, among many.
posted by Fleebnork at 5:21 AM on March 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
No, no, let's keep making millions of people drive to a building to sit together at desks.
Of course, this isn't a panacea, but it would help a lot. It's one thing we could do, among many.
posted by Fleebnork at 5:21 AM on March 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
Meanwhile, these ladies yt have suppressed over 13 mega tons a year by stopping petrochemical plants.
Have they, though? They've been very successful at preventing the plants from being built/operated in their communities, which is obviously a win for them and a nice fuck-you to the underlying racism of the location choices, but it doesn't follow that any actual reduction in carbon emissions happened. The plants were probably just built elsewhere, maybe in the US or maybe not, or maybe production at other plants was just scaled up, and unless the construction halts raised prices enough to cause actual demand destruction in the markets they were targeting, the emissions probably happened regardless.
What needs to be halted is the carbon extraction. Once the carbon has been pulled out of its geological tomb and brought up here to the world of the living, the damage is mostly done. There's some tinkering around the edges—making asphalt out of tar/bitumen is probably better than burning it as bunker fuel; arguably making plastic might be better than combustion too—but the vast majority is going to end up in the atmosphere.
As long as we're drilling for oil, fracking for gas, and mining coal, we're making the problem worse. Most everything else that gets dragged into carbon discussions is a distraction. Carbon capture is the oil companies' "safer cigarette"; a figleaf for their extractive operations to hide behind, and one that doesn't make a ton of sense when you start looking at the energy involved. (Where is this energy going to come from? Solar? Nuclear reactors? Maybe we should just build those now and destroy some of the demand for fossil fuel before it's extracted and dumped into the biosphere. But of course we won't, because the whole thing is a charade.)
I'm not trying to be a doomer, but looking at how humans tend to collectively handle major problems that require cooperation and shared responsibility outside of their existing tribal boundaries, the chances that we're going to heed this set of Final Warnings and suddenly do what we haven't been able to do so far, seems...uh... remote. If having hope is important to you, believe what you need to believe to get through the day, but... really? If you can look at the scale of the problem, and then look at the 20th century, and think "oh, this will probably work out well", that is some weapons-grade optimism you're packing.
Here's what I think is likely: we do more or less fuck-all, collectively. A bunch of rich countries, mostly in Europe, put up a good show of things, because they can afford to and a bunch of them still have apparent guilt complexes over stuff like colonialism and genocide. Russia, China, Iran, the Saudis... time to "drill baby drill". They're going to burn that shit like it's going out of style. Which it is.
We almost certainly blow past the 1.5C threshold and head hard for 2C.
Then maybe shit starts to get real bad. (By which I mean "bad for white people" bad.) Maybe we get some staple crop failures in the N. Hemisphere for the first time in a generation or two; that would probably make folks sit up and take notice. Maybe a hurricane takes out a city that the Davos crowd is fond of, like New York, Shanghai, or Miami. (Just kidding, the Davos people don't give a shit about Miami. But the nuclear power plant just south of it might threaten some islands they're fond of.)
If enough of those things happened at once both in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, that might be enough to get everyone to pull together and stop extracting carbon (and maybe turn a few petro-state kleptocrats into drone-strike sushi until they start displaying a sufficient amount of team spirit). But, of course, we're probably already at somewhere between 1.5-2.5C by then, and we have to find some way of unfucking ourselves.
My bet is we end up doing some seat-of-the-pants geoengineering, like maybe stratospheric sulfur injection. The Chinese might even do something unilaterally; they already do a fair amount of (attempted, questionably successful) "weather modification", and it's unlikely that anyone is going to tell them to stop in a way that's meaningful (i.e. nuclear-tipped). There are a number of other nations (Indonesia, Ethiopia, Guatemala) that could probably engineer volcanic eruptions that would cause stratospheric albedo increases, and wouldn't require action outside their borders. Maybe Elon Musk will go full Mr. Burns and try to partially blot out the sun by spraying a few hundred tons of crystalline water into the Earth-Sun L1 point. There are options. Many of them are quite bad. But picking between bad options when a crisis has already happened or is happening is what humans are good at!
What we're terrible at is preventing the crisis in the first place.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:09 AM on March 22, 2023 [6 favorites]
Have they, though? They've been very successful at preventing the plants from being built/operated in their communities, which is obviously a win for them and a nice fuck-you to the underlying racism of the location choices, but it doesn't follow that any actual reduction in carbon emissions happened. The plants were probably just built elsewhere, maybe in the US or maybe not, or maybe production at other plants was just scaled up, and unless the construction halts raised prices enough to cause actual demand destruction in the markets they were targeting, the emissions probably happened regardless.
What needs to be halted is the carbon extraction. Once the carbon has been pulled out of its geological tomb and brought up here to the world of the living, the damage is mostly done. There's some tinkering around the edges—making asphalt out of tar/bitumen is probably better than burning it as bunker fuel; arguably making plastic might be better than combustion too—but the vast majority is going to end up in the atmosphere.
As long as we're drilling for oil, fracking for gas, and mining coal, we're making the problem worse. Most everything else that gets dragged into carbon discussions is a distraction. Carbon capture is the oil companies' "safer cigarette"; a figleaf for their extractive operations to hide behind, and one that doesn't make a ton of sense when you start looking at the energy involved. (Where is this energy going to come from? Solar? Nuclear reactors? Maybe we should just build those now and destroy some of the demand for fossil fuel before it's extracted and dumped into the biosphere. But of course we won't, because the whole thing is a charade.)
I'm not trying to be a doomer, but looking at how humans tend to collectively handle major problems that require cooperation and shared responsibility outside of their existing tribal boundaries, the chances that we're going to heed this set of Final Warnings and suddenly do what we haven't been able to do so far, seems...uh... remote. If having hope is important to you, believe what you need to believe to get through the day, but... really? If you can look at the scale of the problem, and then look at the 20th century, and think "oh, this will probably work out well", that is some weapons-grade optimism you're packing.
Here's what I think is likely: we do more or less fuck-all, collectively. A bunch of rich countries, mostly in Europe, put up a good show of things, because they can afford to and a bunch of them still have apparent guilt complexes over stuff like colonialism and genocide. Russia, China, Iran, the Saudis... time to "drill baby drill". They're going to burn that shit like it's going out of style. Which it is.
We almost certainly blow past the 1.5C threshold and head hard for 2C.
Then maybe shit starts to get real bad. (By which I mean "bad for white people" bad.) Maybe we get some staple crop failures in the N. Hemisphere for the first time in a generation or two; that would probably make folks sit up and take notice. Maybe a hurricane takes out a city that the Davos crowd is fond of, like New York, Shanghai, or Miami. (Just kidding, the Davos people don't give a shit about Miami. But the nuclear power plant just south of it might threaten some islands they're fond of.)
If enough of those things happened at once both in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, that might be enough to get everyone to pull together and stop extracting carbon (and maybe turn a few petro-state kleptocrats into drone-strike sushi until they start displaying a sufficient amount of team spirit). But, of course, we're probably already at somewhere between 1.5-2.5C by then, and we have to find some way of unfucking ourselves.
My bet is we end up doing some seat-of-the-pants geoengineering, like maybe stratospheric sulfur injection. The Chinese might even do something unilaterally; they already do a fair amount of (attempted, questionably successful) "weather modification", and it's unlikely that anyone is going to tell them to stop in a way that's meaningful (i.e. nuclear-tipped). There are a number of other nations (Indonesia, Ethiopia, Guatemala) that could probably engineer volcanic eruptions that would cause stratospheric albedo increases, and wouldn't require action outside their borders. Maybe Elon Musk will go full Mr. Burns and try to partially blot out the sun by spraying a few hundred tons of crystalline water into the Earth-Sun L1 point. There are options. Many of them are quite bad. But picking between bad options when a crisis has already happened or is happening is what humans are good at!
What we're terrible at is preventing the crisis in the first place.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:09 AM on March 22, 2023 [6 favorites]
lizbobiz: In general, we have some answers to your questions already, and science is working on more. Although they are not perfect yet, we already have bioplastics in production and use globally. Rather than horses and buggies, we have a lot of hope for walking, biking, and electric transit, all of which served our species perfectly well before cars and trucks. Old maps of electric streetcars suggest how easily we could reinstate those systems. Chemists are developing ways to replace petroleum based chemicals. The Inflation Reduction Act includes funding to help people switch from fossil-fuel heating to heatpumps. etc.
Yes, there is a lot of research being done. Yes, it will mean some changes in our lives. No, it does not at all resemble pre-Industrial Revolution lifestyles.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:46 AM on March 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
Yes, there is a lot of research being done. Yes, it will mean some changes in our lives. No, it does not at all resemble pre-Industrial Revolution lifestyles.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:46 AM on March 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
Humans seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that isn’t happening immediately in front of them.
If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is:
If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is:
Humans (well, certainly Americans) seem particularly incapable of imagining how negatively affected they’ll be by something that is happening immediately in front of them.posted by pjenks at 3:49 PM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
The climate crisis, part of a broader unsustanable pollution and havitat destruction crisis presents us with simple but hard choices. Do we enjoy longer healthier lives with lower commuting costa and utility bills, or do we invest our money in the wealth and happiness of other people: namely the fossil fuel companies and their cronies.
Do we spend $200 once a decade at the thrift store on wool for winter and linen for summer, or do we spend an extra $2,000 a year keeping our furnaces cranked to 70 and our air conditions blasting to 65.
We as a society have no difficulty finding $300 billion in the couch cushions when a bankster or war needs it (i think ukraines defense is worth the investment and stoping a twitter bankrun likewise), but it suddenly is unreasonable to spend a $30 billion buying heatpumps and solar hotwater pre-heaters.
The choice is simple but hard. We either party while the ship sinks, or party and build lifeboats. We might have to forgo one taxpayer supported sports stadium or *gasp * host the olympics in existing facilities while we move to higher ground, build reliable electric busses and get over our fear of change.
Because change is coming to wipe out everything we built on cheap oil and low elevation and everything we grew in stable conditions. Choose to live. Choose sustainability.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 4:20 PM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Do we spend $200 once a decade at the thrift store on wool for winter and linen for summer, or do we spend an extra $2,000 a year keeping our furnaces cranked to 70 and our air conditions blasting to 65.
We as a society have no difficulty finding $300 billion in the couch cushions when a bankster or war needs it (i think ukraines defense is worth the investment and stoping a twitter bankrun likewise), but it suddenly is unreasonable to spend a $30 billion buying heatpumps and solar hotwater pre-heaters.
The choice is simple but hard. We either party while the ship sinks, or party and build lifeboats. We might have to forgo one taxpayer supported sports stadium or *gasp * host the olympics in existing facilities while we move to higher ground, build reliable electric busses and get over our fear of change.
Because change is coming to wipe out everything we built on cheap oil and low elevation and everything we grew in stable conditions. Choose to live. Choose sustainability.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 4:20 PM on March 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Find the others, join a community, move forward without waiting for every deadender and fossil to get on board. Build arks, build nature corridors, build settlements that don't need 3ton 2 passenger codpieces for transportation. Save your money (personal and community and tax money) by making hay while the sunshines and using the cleanest (also cheapest) renewables.
Communities that can't clean up their infrastructure and work together to live better on a less wasteful footprint don't have a future.
Come with us if you want to live.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 4:25 PM on March 22, 2023
Communities that can't clean up their infrastructure and work together to live better on a less wasteful footprint don't have a future.
Come with us if you want to live.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 4:25 PM on March 22, 2023
I've long thought that the only way to stop climate change is to go back to the pre-industrial revolution.
There's a dark post today about the impact of deindustrializing the Soviet Union and Hungary, which is worth considering in this context. Not the same, but a caution.
posted by doctornemo at 5:01 PM on March 22, 2023
There's a dark post today about the impact of deindustrializing the Soviet Union and Hungary, which is worth considering in this context. Not the same, but a caution.
posted by doctornemo at 5:01 PM on March 22, 2023
From that other post,
posted by eviemath at 6:02 PM on March 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
We develop a theoretical framework identifying deindustrialisation as a process of social disintegration rooted in the lived experience of shock therapy. We test this theory relying on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989–95 in Hungary and 514 towns in European Russia in 1991–99. The results show that deindustrialisation was directly associated with male mortality and indirectly mediated by hazardous drinking as a stress-coping strategy. The association is not a spurious result of a legacy of dysfunctional working-class health culture aggravated by low alcohol prices during the early years of the transition. Both countries experienced deindustrialisation, but social and economic policies have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The results are relevant to health crises in other regions, including the deaths of despair plaguing the American Rust Belt. Policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair are vital to save lives during painful economic transformations."Deindustrialization" doesn't just mean less industry. It depends on how that happens. Eg. a Green New Deal would be a program of policies to address and ameliorate the potential stresses of a large-scale economic transformation.
posted by eviemath at 6:02 PM on March 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
I just gave the "Summary for Policymakers" a quick scan... I thought it actually read as kind of hopeful? It's certainly not the prophesy of Cassandra that this thread is making it out to be.
The IPCC report is always toned down, especially the summary for policymakers. This twitter thread has some examples about how countries fight over the specific wording that ends up in the document.
posted by simmering octagon at 7:17 AM on March 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
The IPCC report is always toned down, especially the summary for policymakers. This twitter thread has some examples about how countries fight over the specific wording that ends up in the document.
posted by simmering octagon at 7:17 AM on March 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
IPCC reports have traditionally emphasized integrated assessment models by Nordhaus, etc, aka genocide of the tropics.
There are no magic words for fixing all this, hippybear, et al. There are however several magic brief cases, which could end enough of the world's 700ish refineries in an instant. And more asymmetric tools which take more care. It'd never be done altruistically of course, but if a few stronger nations align against one another having the remaining oil & gas, then overnight nobody has any oil or gas, and our species survives.
It's plausible large groups cannot disobey the maximum (em)power principle, and thus cannot avoid extinction when their interests stay aligned, but nature clearly demonstrates that ecosystems can and do survive by their entities being in conflict.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:14 AM on March 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are no magic words for fixing all this, hippybear, et al. There are however several magic brief cases, which could end enough of the world's 700ish refineries in an instant. And more asymmetric tools which take more care. It'd never be done altruistically of course, but if a few stronger nations align against one another having the remaining oil & gas, then overnight nobody has any oil or gas, and our species survives.
It's plausible large groups cannot disobey the maximum (em)power principle, and thus cannot avoid extinction when their interests stay aligned, but nature clearly demonstrates that ecosystems can and do survive by their entities being in conflict.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:14 AM on March 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
This guarantee [of perpetual peace] is given by no less a power than the great artist nature in whose mechanical course is clearly exhibited a predetermined design to make harmony spring from human discord, even against the will of man.Prayers up law boy
posted by grobstein at 10:22 AM on March 23, 2023
"Deindustrialization" doesn't just mean less industry. It depends on how that happens.
Exactly.
posted by doctornemo at 12:08 PM on March 23, 2023
Exactly.
posted by doctornemo at 12:08 PM on March 23, 2023
If you want a break from IPCC23, check out Hansen et al's latest paper. https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
Equilibrium climate sensitivty (i.e. if you double co2, what temp rise do you get) is estimated at 3.5-5.5C , relative to pre industrial 1750a.d. (instead of 1880) we are already baked in that 4C rise. since Co2 equivalents with methane, nox etc are double 1750's)
Our descendents centuries from now(if we have any) face 10C above 1750ace from what we have already polluted. Not from guesses of future emissions, in the atmosphere now.
in peer review, uses paleoclimate data, includes feedback mechnisms.
And if anyone can find it, Total, french oil giant, rep caught on hot mic saying their inhouse modelling is 3.5C with paris comittments.
Business as usual is suicide.
Join greenpeace, 350.org, sunrise extinction rebellion and show the politicians that we have a special interest in a liveable world, and it doesn't have to include them if they don't support us.
Knock doors, send postcards, register voters, donate your time, pressure your family and peers - vote on everything and vote for ecological justice.
Every piece of polluting infrasfructure is an attempted murder by poison ofyour friends and neighbors, use your moral and legal right to self defense, to bear arms and to stand your ground.
The cost of killing the world with pollution must be more than just fines, it must be infammy like histories other genocidal monsters, it must be knowing that you could end up like mussolini or cecescau or gaddafi or at least like hitler.
Every school board, planning comission, port comittee, utility meeting, every shareholder meeting and town hall- make your demands known - join the plan to clean up your operations or be unable to operate.
Buy less, buy better, buy clean and coordinate boycotts against polluters - one by one, destroy their stock price if they can't clean up their act. If you have to but from the lesser of two evils, let them know why.
Halt the pollution, become the solution. Don't wait for legislation, rolling black outs and skyrocketing bills - reduce your home energy use and convert the remainder to solar and wind and make hay while the sun shines and the wind blows. Don't wait to sit in darkness when the fossil grid goes dark.
Don't obey oligarchs, petrostates and ceos - your only loyalty and responsibility is toward saving earths life support system, its species and ecosystems, including its hunans. Disobey any memo, law or command that is in conflict with this sacred responsibility and biological imperative to survive, to protect the children and to protect life.
fill your pantry, garden everywhere, use meat as a seasoning if at all.
Skip the tedious lines and stress of the airport, save your money and your back from tiny economy seats - don't zoom through the sky, use zoom from the comfort of your home.
Consider adopting, consider having one or no additional children and instead devoting your love, your time and your resources to helping existing children (yours and everyones) live and grow in a crowded dying world.
every mcmansion is a multifamily house waiting to be.
every minuvan and van is a local mini-busroute. Make money, save trips, make new friends among your neighbors.
Lastly, be good to each other. the 6th mass exinction is stressful, our 24-7 clockwork irange entertainment brainwashing is disorienting and enraging, our war is not against the pawns of past habits, fossil fools and people with few choices and fewer resources. Our war is against those who knew and choosee their profit and power over a sustainable earth.
To action.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:02 PM on March 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Equilibrium climate sensitivty (i.e. if you double co2, what temp rise do you get) is estimated at 3.5-5.5C , relative to pre industrial 1750a.d. (instead of 1880) we are already baked in that 4C rise. since Co2 equivalents with methane, nox etc are double 1750's)
Our descendents centuries from now(if we have any) face 10C above 1750ace from what we have already polluted. Not from guesses of future emissions, in the atmosphere now.
in peer review, uses paleoclimate data, includes feedback mechnisms.
And if anyone can find it, Total, french oil giant, rep caught on hot mic saying their inhouse modelling is 3.5C with paris comittments.
Business as usual is suicide.
Join greenpeace, 350.org, sunrise extinction rebellion and show the politicians that we have a special interest in a liveable world, and it doesn't have to include them if they don't support us.
Knock doors, send postcards, register voters, donate your time, pressure your family and peers - vote on everything and vote for ecological justice.
Every piece of polluting infrasfructure is an attempted murder by poison ofyour friends and neighbors, use your moral and legal right to self defense, to bear arms and to stand your ground.
The cost of killing the world with pollution must be more than just fines, it must be infammy like histories other genocidal monsters, it must be knowing that you could end up like mussolini or cecescau or gaddafi or at least like hitler.
Every school board, planning comission, port comittee, utility meeting, every shareholder meeting and town hall- make your demands known - join the plan to clean up your operations or be unable to operate.
Buy less, buy better, buy clean and coordinate boycotts against polluters - one by one, destroy their stock price if they can't clean up their act. If you have to but from the lesser of two evils, let them know why.
Halt the pollution, become the solution. Don't wait for legislation, rolling black outs and skyrocketing bills - reduce your home energy use and convert the remainder to solar and wind and make hay while the sun shines and the wind blows. Don't wait to sit in darkness when the fossil grid goes dark.
Don't obey oligarchs, petrostates and ceos - your only loyalty and responsibility is toward saving earths life support system, its species and ecosystems, including its hunans. Disobey any memo, law or command that is in conflict with this sacred responsibility and biological imperative to survive, to protect the children and to protect life.
fill your pantry, garden everywhere, use meat as a seasoning if at all.
Skip the tedious lines and stress of the airport, save your money and your back from tiny economy seats - don't zoom through the sky, use zoom from the comfort of your home.
Consider adopting, consider having one or no additional children and instead devoting your love, your time and your resources to helping existing children (yours and everyones) live and grow in a crowded dying world.
every mcmansion is a multifamily house waiting to be.
every minuvan and van is a local mini-busroute. Make money, save trips, make new friends among your neighbors.
Lastly, be good to each other. the 6th mass exinction is stressful, our 24-7 clockwork irange entertainment brainwashing is disorienting and enraging, our war is not against the pawns of past habits, fossil fools and people with few choices and fewer resources. Our war is against those who knew and choosee their profit and power over a sustainable earth.
To action.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:02 PM on March 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
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I don't know how to inspire collective sacrifice for collective gain. But if those sorcerer's powers are available to anyone, we need them to be wielded for good, and now, and quickly, and urgently.
I'm trying not to make this a doomer comment. But yes, please. Do it now.
posted by hippybear at 4:31 PM on March 21, 2023 [3 favorites]