Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in Louisiana?
May 22, 2023 10:30 AM Subscribe
Using multiple lines of evidence, the data suggest intermittent but repeated presence of multiple individual birds with field marks and behaviors consistent with those of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Data indicate repeated reuse of foraging sites and core habitat. Our findings, and the inferences drawn from them, suggest that not all is lost for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, and that it is clearly premature for the species to be declared extinct.
From the abstract:
In 2021, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service opened for public comment a proposal to declare the species extinct. Here, we present evidence suggesting the presence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker at our study site, based on a variety of data collected over a 10-year search period, 2012–2022. These data are drawn from visual observations, ~70,000 h of recordings by 80–100 acoustic recording units, ~472,550 camera-hours by as many as 34 trail cameras, and ~1089 h of video drawn from ~3265 drone flights.
From the abstract:
In 2021, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service opened for public comment a proposal to declare the species extinct. Here, we present evidence suggesting the presence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker at our study site, based on a variety of data collected over a 10-year search period, 2012–2022. These data are drawn from visual observations, ~70,000 h of recordings by 80–100 acoustic recording units, ~472,550 camera-hours by as many as 34 trail cameras, and ~1089 h of video drawn from ~3265 drone flights.
Wait, are we back to maybe? There was first one possible sighting, and then people were back to thinking it was extinct, then there was a recording that did sound like the ivory's apparently distinct three note call, and then nothing more for years and years so it was back to "it was a leucistic red headed woodpecker".
posted by tavella at 11:09 AM on May 22, 2023
posted by tavella at 11:09 AM on May 22, 2023
The paper has the details - some photos, video (referenced), and audio recordings consistent with Ivorybill activity. As to what it means...it would hopefully add impetus towards habitat protection, instead of "welp it's gone so I guess we're good to go"
posted by jquinby at 11:12 AM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by jquinby at 11:12 AM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
The saga of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has been such a strange presence in my life, from sad cautionary tale to stories of obsessive searching, desperate hope and general despair . . . I'm from Louisiana, where so much has gone missing or is disappearing fast, and I have to admit that this story makes my heart flutter just a touch. Hope is, after all, the thing with feathers . . .
posted by pt68 at 11:33 AM on May 22, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by pt68 at 11:33 AM on May 22, 2023 [14 favorites]
I was surprised to read that there had been 16 sightings (alas with no photos) credible enough to be included in the study. The trail camera/drone photos were also interesting, but none was better than most UFO level photos. I wonder if they thought of approaching a professional wildlife photographer or two to add to their teams.
I'm wondering how this will impact the birding "community" and whether this habitat is remote or protected enough to keep the seekers from running there to claim a sighting or get a photo.
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:38 AM on May 22, 2023
I'm wondering how this will impact the birding "community" and whether this habitat is remote or protected enough to keep the seekers from running there to claim a sighting or get a photo.
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:38 AM on May 22, 2023
I hope they are still around. I do find it odd that after decades of first-person searching, plus the cited ~70,000 h of recordings by 80–100 acoustic recording units, ~472,550 camera-hours by as many as 34 trail cameras, and ~1089 h of video drawn from ~3265 drone flights, this study came up with only 16 visual observations deemed by the observer to be probable Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, none with photographic verification; and only a few fuzzy trail camera photos and video clips. All of these potentially are of the very similar Pileated Woodpecker. There is not one single clear, unambiguous photograph.
All that said, I'm impressed by the analysis done on all the various sightings and recordings, and the evidence does seem to point strongly to the survival of a few Ivory Bills.
posted by beagle at 11:47 AM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
All that said, I'm impressed by the analysis done on all the various sightings and recordings, and the evidence does seem to point strongly to the survival of a few Ivory Bills.
posted by beagle at 11:47 AM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
It would be really helpful to have a skeptic's analysis to go along with this paper. The work here seems impressive for sure. But it's also a highly motivated analysis of reports by highly motivated observers. (Because who else would go to all this trouble?)
posted by Not A Thing at 11:53 AM on May 22, 2023
posted by Not A Thing at 11:53 AM on May 22, 2023
I poured over this article this weekend...it's both credible and super sasquatchy...I WANT TO BELIEVE!
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:03 PM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:03 PM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
It would be really helpful to have a skeptic's analysis to go along with this paper.
Some dissenting opinions are included here in NYT (archive).
“The body of evidence is only as strong as the single strongest piece — ten cups of weak coffee do not make a pot of strong coffee.”
That article also includes some very grainy photos and videos.
posted by Rumple at 12:21 PM on May 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
Some dissenting opinions are included here in NYT (archive).
“The body of evidence is only as strong as the single strongest piece — ten cups of weak coffee do not make a pot of strong coffee.”
That article also includes some very grainy photos and videos.
posted by Rumple at 12:21 PM on May 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Lord God Bird (song by Sufjan Stevens)
posted by Brian B. at 12:35 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 12:35 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
The term for a taxon (typically a species) thought to be extinct only to be rediscovered is Lazarus Taxon. The list is quite long.
re:Wild has an effort going to rediscover lost species. They have found eight so far.
Recently the black-naped pheasant pigeon, last seen in 1882, was rediscovered in Papua New Guinea (watch the full video, it's so great seeing the researcher's reaction to the discover).
It seems improbable that a bird as large as an Ivory-billed could elude human sight for this long, but there are large stretches of the Southeast that are pretty much wilderness, and that's the habitat an Ivory-billed wants to be in.
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:37 PM on May 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
re:Wild has an effort going to rediscover lost species. They have found eight so far.
Recently the black-naped pheasant pigeon, last seen in 1882, was rediscovered in Papua New Guinea (watch the full video, it's so great seeing the researcher's reaction to the discover).
It seems improbable that a bird as large as an Ivory-billed could elude human sight for this long, but there are large stretches of the Southeast that are pretty much wilderness, and that's the habitat an Ivory-billed wants to be in.
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:37 PM on May 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
I would love to believe also, but if there still a few I-BW left,
all we're going to end up with is photos, recordings, a few taxidermies and maybe some DNA. Even if there are enough breeding pairs to expand the population enough to meet our human ratings of being Extinct in the Wild, through Critically Endangered, through Vulnerable, Near Threatened, and all the way to being of Least Concern numbers-wise, the odds of there being enough genetic variation to keep the species healthy is doubtful. Population rise occurs faster than genetic mutations for disease resistance and changing environmental conditions. No matter what laws are enacted in an attempt for preservation of habitat, the rising temperatures, CO2 emissions, increasing competition for food by other species, and pressure from increasing human expansion will be the end of the I-BW. We're seeing other bird species world-wide once rated as Near Threatened now reduced to Venerable status. This particular map is US-centric, but the outlook is pretty sad.
posted by BlueHorse at 12:56 PM on May 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
all we're going to end up with is photos, recordings, a few taxidermies and maybe some DNA. Even if there are enough breeding pairs to expand the population enough to meet our human ratings of being Extinct in the Wild, through Critically Endangered, through Vulnerable, Near Threatened, and all the way to being of Least Concern numbers-wise, the odds of there being enough genetic variation to keep the species healthy is doubtful. Population rise occurs faster than genetic mutations for disease resistance and changing environmental conditions. No matter what laws are enacted in an attempt for preservation of habitat, the rising temperatures, CO2 emissions, increasing competition for food by other species, and pressure from increasing human expansion will be the end of the I-BW. We're seeing other bird species world-wide once rated as Near Threatened now reduced to Venerable status. This particular map is US-centric, but the outlook is pretty sad.
posted by BlueHorse at 12:56 PM on May 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
I agree that this is unlikely, and the evidence presented here is weak. However, I can not deny that the first recording in Appendix 2 sounds reasonably like a historical recording of the bird in question. But I am not a bird expert; I have no idea what other birds might make that sound.
posted by timdiggerm at 1:48 PM on May 22, 2023
posted by timdiggerm at 1:48 PM on May 22, 2023
A few years back, I had the great joy of seeing a pair of Pileated woodpeckers just across Aloha street from my apartment complex and had my own Lord God moment on the spot because I didn't know about Pileated Woodpeckers at the time
What two deep forest birds were doing on in town on Capitol Hill on a dead tree telephone pole, I know not, but those two birds were completely oblivious to my existence all the while they gave it a thorough once over. That has to be the top bird watching experience of my life to date.
The only woodpeckers I knew in Seattle before that were Northern Flickers, the famous ant-eating nationwide birds of over 100 local names fame. All the same, their wacka! wacka! wacka! calls do add a certain Martin Denny ambiance to the local soundscape.
My sentiment, however, is not shared by our neighbor across back street Broadway, who does not love the ubiquitously named male who incessantly drums away on his house's metal topped chimney each morning this time of year from dawn on.
posted by y2karl at 2:25 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
What two deep forest birds were doing on in town on Capitol Hill on a dead tree telephone pole, I know not, but those two birds were completely oblivious to my existence all the while they gave it a thorough once over. That has to be the top bird watching experience of my life to date.
The only woodpeckers I knew in Seattle before that were Northern Flickers, the famous ant-eating nationwide birds of over 100 local names fame. All the same, their wacka! wacka! wacka! calls do add a certain Martin Denny ambiance to the local soundscape.
My sentiment, however, is not shared by our neighbor across back street Broadway, who does not love the ubiquitously named male who incessantly drums away on his house's metal topped chimney each morning this time of year from dawn on.
posted by y2karl at 2:25 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
Previously and Previouslier
Speaking as a lover of the California condor, species recovery success stories are possible. It really is possible for a species to rebound from a tiny population (only 22, who were all taken into captivity), to over 500 in the wild today, successfully breeding. But, there was never any doubt that those 22 condors still existed. And I definitely echo the feelings about the Sasquatch vibes of this paper.
(I am the 26th author of a paper that appeared in the same issue of Science as the 2005 Arkansas paper. NPR had done a nice story on our work, too, but it got bumped by the (slim) possibility of the Lord God Bird still existing. I wonder what other science news is getting bumped this week.)
posted by hydropsyche at 5:35 PM on May 22, 2023 [6 favorites]
Speaking as a lover of the California condor, species recovery success stories are possible. It really is possible for a species to rebound from a tiny population (only 22, who were all taken into captivity), to over 500 in the wild today, successfully breeding. But, there was never any doubt that those 22 condors still existed. And I definitely echo the feelings about the Sasquatch vibes of this paper.
(I am the 26th author of a paper that appeared in the same issue of Science as the 2005 Arkansas paper. NPR had done a nice story on our work, too, but it got bumped by the (slim) possibility of the Lord God Bird still existing. I wonder what other science news is getting bumped this week.)
posted by hydropsyche at 5:35 PM on May 22, 2023 [6 favorites]
Any woodpecker is a backyard birding highlight for me. In NY I get frequent red-bellied and downy woodpeckers, not to mention the woodpecker-adjacents like nuthatches, and upstate I have twice seen pileated woodpeckers which are really breathtaking birds. I really hope these folks are right and there are ivory-billed woodpeckers out there living their best lives far from where people usually roam.
posted by bgribble at 5:42 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by bgribble at 5:42 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
What two deep forest birds were doing on in town on Capitol Hill on a dead tree telephone pole
Either being very sad to discover the wood was well preserved or happy to find that pole's not gonna last
posted by timdiggerm at 2:46 AM on May 23, 2023
Either being very sad to discover the wood was well preserved or happy to find that pole's not gonna last
posted by timdiggerm at 2:46 AM on May 23, 2023
I'm wondering how this will impact the birding "community" and whether this habitat is remote or protected enough to keep the seekers from running there to claim a sighting or get a photo.
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:38 AM on May 22 [+] [!]
From what I understand, it's pretty remote, and on private land. This area of Louisiana, if i'm reading the cues, is still in the plantations that came with colonization. I was surprised that there were no boat surveys, but perhaps it's because the small vessels that can navigate the shallow water, flooded forests, the crawfishing vessels, are very loud.
posted by eustatic at 7:22 AM on May 23, 2023
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:38 AM on May 22 [+] [!]
From what I understand, it's pretty remote, and on private land. This area of Louisiana, if i'm reading the cues, is still in the plantations that came with colonization. I was surprised that there were no boat surveys, but perhaps it's because the small vessels that can navigate the shallow water, flooded forests, the crawfishing vessels, are very loud.
posted by eustatic at 7:22 AM on May 23, 2023
What would be the implications of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker being incorrectly declared extinct? Do certain habitat protections go away?
posted by andythebean at 11:07 AM on May 22 [+] [!]
https://ecos.fws.gov/docs/recovery_plan/100719.pdf
USFWS:
..that the biological and ecological limiting factors are poorly understood; the threats to the species’ existence are also poorly understood or pervasive and difficult to alleviate; intensive management is needed, but the probability of success is uncertain; or the techniques needed to recover the species are unknown or experimental (low recovery potential). No critical habitat has been designated for this species and none is required due to the date of listing.
Which is probably why the landowners allow researchers onto their plantations in the first place....
Remember before Newt Gingrinch, when the United States was going to develop a United States Biological Service? What would have been an amazing source of employment and biological information.
posted by eustatic at 7:35 AM on May 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by andythebean at 11:07 AM on May 22 [+] [!]
https://ecos.fws.gov/docs/recovery_plan/100719.pdf
USFWS:
..that the biological and ecological limiting factors are poorly understood; the threats to the species’ existence are also poorly understood or pervasive and difficult to alleviate; intensive management is needed, but the probability of success is uncertain; or the techniques needed to recover the species are unknown or experimental (low recovery potential). No critical habitat has been designated for this species and none is required due to the date of listing.
Which is probably why the landowners allow researchers onto their plantations in the first place....
Remember before Newt Gingrinch, when the United States was going to develop a United States Biological Service? What would have been an amazing source of employment and biological information.
posted by eustatic at 7:35 AM on May 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
It is interesting to me that very few Louisiana based searches were conducted before this team set to work, and that Louisiana DWF conducted its 2005 surveys for USFWS via helicopter, rather than do what other states did. Helicopter seems like a unique method, and a unique kind of failure mode.
USFWS being dependent upon state agencies to conduct its science business is a wild thing, we really need a federal Biological Service. LDWF is great at managing hunters, and ok at fisheries. But I would not entrust them to any large scientific endeavor, especially one that might lead to the federal designation of some forests as un-loggable.
The last Governor's Forest Science Board declared the Maurepas Swamps un-loggable in 2005. That scientific effort had to be independent of LDWF, in the Governor's office, because the Governor at that time, "Mike" Foster, was such an ardent hunter. After the Forests of Maurepas were found to be unsuitable for silviculture (and thus, the great swamps would require Clean Water Act 404 permits), the Ag and Forestry people in the State wowed to never allow such a scientific endeavor to be funded by the state of Louisiana again.
While this political controversy was raging, the other states were out there, getting to work, recording Bird calls and surveying.
Louisiana is not a place where normal, publically funded science can happen without a strong interest from the Governor's office, with the full police powers of the state. Thus the "bigfoot" style of these articles, and the landowners remaining anonymous. But I don't think we have to worry about Big Birding impacting these areas.
posted by eustatic at 7:48 AM on May 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
USFWS being dependent upon state agencies to conduct its science business is a wild thing, we really need a federal Biological Service. LDWF is great at managing hunters, and ok at fisheries. But I would not entrust them to any large scientific endeavor, especially one that might lead to the federal designation of some forests as un-loggable.
The last Governor's Forest Science Board declared the Maurepas Swamps un-loggable in 2005. That scientific effort had to be independent of LDWF, in the Governor's office, because the Governor at that time, "Mike" Foster, was such an ardent hunter. After the Forests of Maurepas were found to be unsuitable for silviculture (and thus, the great swamps would require Clean Water Act 404 permits), the Ag and Forestry people in the State wowed to never allow such a scientific endeavor to be funded by the state of Louisiana again.
While this political controversy was raging, the other states were out there, getting to work, recording Bird calls and surveying.
Louisiana is not a place where normal, publically funded science can happen without a strong interest from the Governor's office, with the full police powers of the state. Thus the "bigfoot" style of these articles, and the landowners remaining anonymous. But I don't think we have to worry about Big Birding impacting these areas.
posted by eustatic at 7:48 AM on May 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
" It really is possible for a species to rebound from a tiny population (only 22, who were all taken into captivity)"
Or the Chatham Island black robin, which was reduced to a single fertile pair, from which all the 300 now alive are descended.
posted by tavella at 2:29 PM on May 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or the Chatham Island black robin, which was reduced to a single fertile pair, from which all the 300 now alive are descended.
posted by tavella at 2:29 PM on May 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I fully endorse the Lazarus taxon - I want to believe AND my fabulous DIL just discovered through her ornithology course, that birds rock and might be involved with her (Pueblo CO) graduate trajectory…so, here’s hoping!
posted by childofTethys at 6:59 PM on May 23, 2023
posted by childofTethys at 6:59 PM on May 23, 2023
> I do find it odd that after decades of first-person searching . . . this study came up with only 16 visual observations deemed by the observer to be probable Ivory-billed Woodpeckers
From the study:
data collected over a 10-year search period, 2012–2022 . . . Most fieldwork was concentrated in the October–May period thought to encompass the breeding season of this species.
The search area was defined by mature bottomland forest habitat, previous visual sightings or aural data, and accessibility. The area is a >90 km2 mosaic of wooded swamp and bottomlands occupying a system of drainages and backwaters ~10 km in length, and in breadth from 50 m along some of the smaller feeder streams to ~1.5 km in places along the mainstream. . . .
Skilled, reliable observers associated with our team, all abundantly familiar with Pileated Woodpecker, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus), and other birds of the area, reported 16 visual observations deemed by the observer to be probable Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Seven of these were of high enough quality that the observer considered the sighting to be definite (See Appendix 1).
In short, this isn't all possible sightings by all possible people over many decades, but rather the specific sightings made by this specific, expert but relatively small team over a relatively restricted time period (10 years - but their main observation period was only part of each year), in a specific, pretty small geographical area.
Given that this bird is very rare at the present time (at best) and its population density at best is quite low (like 2-4 pairs in an area the size of the study area would be close to the maximum) personally I would say that something like 16 sightings by the study group in the study area over the study period is about what I would expect.
And seven sightings that experienced observers consider definitive is worth noting - especially when those experienced observers are going to be well versed in any and all similar birds in that area.
I wouldn't say this is absolute definitive proof that the woodpecker still survives, but it's certainly good enough evidence to put it into the "maybe" or "probably" category and continue to look rather than writing it off altogether.
posted by flug at 6:03 PM on May 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
From the study:
data collected over a 10-year search period, 2012–2022 . . . Most fieldwork was concentrated in the October–May period thought to encompass the breeding season of this species.
The search area was defined by mature bottomland forest habitat, previous visual sightings or aural data, and accessibility. The area is a >90 km2 mosaic of wooded swamp and bottomlands occupying a system of drainages and backwaters ~10 km in length, and in breadth from 50 m along some of the smaller feeder streams to ~1.5 km in places along the mainstream. . . .
Skilled, reliable observers associated with our team, all abundantly familiar with Pileated Woodpecker, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus), and other birds of the area, reported 16 visual observations deemed by the observer to be probable Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Seven of these were of high enough quality that the observer considered the sighting to be definite (See Appendix 1).
In short, this isn't all possible sightings by all possible people over many decades, but rather the specific sightings made by this specific, expert but relatively small team over a relatively restricted time period (10 years - but their main observation period was only part of each year), in a specific, pretty small geographical area.
Given that this bird is very rare at the present time (at best) and its population density at best is quite low (like 2-4 pairs in an area the size of the study area would be close to the maximum) personally I would say that something like 16 sightings by the study group in the study area over the study period is about what I would expect.
And seven sightings that experienced observers consider definitive is worth noting - especially when those experienced observers are going to be well versed in any and all similar birds in that area.
I wouldn't say this is absolute definitive proof that the woodpecker still survives, but it's certainly good enough evidence to put it into the "maybe" or "probably" category and continue to look rather than writing it off altogether.
posted by flug at 6:03 PM on May 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
On a more personal note, I was rather happy to see that their bird photos are just about exactly as bad as mine are. Getting a really nice photo of a very small thing w-a-y out there, and invariably in marginal light, ain't as easy as it looks.
posted by flug at 6:05 PM on May 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by flug at 6:05 PM on May 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
Science really does proceed at the speed of camera technologies
posted by eustatic at 8:57 PM on May 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by eustatic at 8:57 PM on May 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
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posted by andythebean at 11:07 AM on May 22, 2023