(Semi-Free Thread) State of the Vibe Report - US Election
October 23, 2024 8:07 AM Subscribe
"The Hound," a show on WFMU from the 1980s-1990s (previously), had a regular segment where one of the Hound's friends would call in to give a "State of the Vibe" report. Often irreverent, at times these captured first-hand observations of historical events, like the Tompkins Square Park riot. So taking this as inspiration, this thread is a space for political vibe reports. Examples: descriptions of political signage around you, snippets of overheard conversations on the bus, by the proverbial water cooler at work, etc. or observations while canvassing/phone banking, while waiting in line to vote, etc. Mefites outside of the US are encouraged to share reports of whether/how their fellow citizens and/or national media are covering or paying attention to this election. This is not a space to get into arguments with other users over the merits of voting third party - you can do that here. This is a space for vibe reports.
hi are we allowed to scream incoherently in this thread
posted by MiraK at 8:19 AM on October 23 [42 favorites]
posted by MiraK at 8:19 AM on October 23 [42 favorites]
I live in WA State where we all vote by mail. Our household has 3 committed Dems and two "Independents" who used to be kind of Libertarian, but when that all went Fascist became just non-voters. We don't discuss politics in the household much at all unless we are with our respective fellow travelers. The Dems in the household are anxiously optimistic, but it's so hard to tell from our liberal stronghold in the Western part of the State.
The Trump voters in our area are not displaying any signs this year, but are putting up signs for the Republican candidate for Governer. Their signs tend to be bigger than those for the Dem candidate, but there are many fewer of them. There are also some deeply unpopular proposals on the ballot that I'm hoping will drive better turnout. Overall, less obvious support for Trump, but whether that's because they've changed their mind or just don't feel a need to advertise is hard to tell. Definitely different from 2016 and 2020.
posted by drossdragon at 8:20 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
The Trump voters in our area are not displaying any signs this year, but are putting up signs for the Republican candidate for Governer. Their signs tend to be bigger than those for the Dem candidate, but there are many fewer of them. There are also some deeply unpopular proposals on the ballot that I'm hoping will drive better turnout. Overall, less obvious support for Trump, but whether that's because they've changed their mind or just don't feel a need to advertise is hard to tell. Definitely different from 2016 and 2020.
posted by drossdragon at 8:20 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
Western Virginia Vibe: 1-2 giant Trump signs on barns on I-66; much less than last year. In Staunton last weekend (admittedly a relatively blue town), we saw 20+ houses with Harris or Kaine signs and only 5-6 Trump. Also I’m struck by the stories and pics of handwritten notes in women’s bathrooms saying things like “your vote is secret” and “even republican women are voting for Kamala”. It feels like the kind of secret messaging in protected spaces that has effectively undermined authoritarian regimes in other contexts.
posted by RandlePatrickMcMurphy at 8:24 AM on October 23 [26 favorites]
posted by RandlePatrickMcMurphy at 8:24 AM on October 23 [26 favorites]
I’m in the Bay Area, so the vibe is as blue as you can imagine. But all peeks outside of my bubble give me this vibe:
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
Tossed and turned for about 5 hours last night, utterly exhausted, not sure how I’m going to make it through this.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:25 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
Tossed and turned for about 5 hours last night, utterly exhausted, not sure how I’m going to make it through this.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:25 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
Here in Northern Florida the level of turnout for early voting seems like it's been off the charts, much much higher than in 2016 or 2020. In this state it's hard to be hopeful about anything political but damn it definitely feels like something is different this time around.
posted by saladin at 8:25 AM on October 23 [8 favorites]
posted by saladin at 8:25 AM on October 23 [8 favorites]
Reporting from Portland, OR here, where the Harris/Walz signs so overwhelmingly outnumber any from the opposition that it's counter-intuitively more anxiety-producing these days, like "uh-oh, we've put way too many of our supporters into this little corner of the map, haven't we?"
posted by Navelgazer at 8:25 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
posted by Navelgazer at 8:25 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
I live in a very blue state (CA), in a very blue county (Marin), in the most conservative town in that county and state. So, I chose not to put up signs. There is a house near my Pilates studio (she said, unironically), that is covered with Tr*p signs, other M*ga signs, etc. Down the street from my house is a house with a Kennedy for President sign and a "blue lives matter flag". But I have noticed a reduction in the number of trucks rolling around with Tr*p stickers and signs and American flags.
I we have a robust vote by mail system with tracking. I voted, mailed it in and got a notice yesterday that it had been received and counted.
I am trying not to let my anxiety over this election take over.
posted by agatha_magatha at 8:26 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I we have a robust vote by mail system with tracking. I voted, mailed it in and got a notice yesterday that it had been received and counted.
I am trying not to let my anxiety over this election take over.
posted by agatha_magatha at 8:26 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
The vibe here in our house: he's gonna lose, and he's gonna die in a prison hospital bed from the effects of dementia.
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 8:30 AM on October 23 [17 favorites]
posted by ivanthenotsoterrible at 8:30 AM on October 23 [17 favorites]
I strongly believe that Harris will win, but it's entirely based on vibes, and I scream into the void* every day and night.
* the water, actually: I can swim laps AND engage in primal scream therapy.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:31 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
* the water, actually: I can swim laps AND engage in primal scream therapy.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:31 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
Vibe report: this week my therapist said that election anxiety was so universal in his practice that if he were to offer a 2-weeks-only group for it, people would need to take numbers to wait for a spot. And he would be among them.
General observation: this election more than any other in my memory has truly cemented the information-source and/or spin divide between the two sides. I don't think even in 2020 that there was this much of a disconnect between the two camps. For example, when Jan 6th happened or when Four Seasons Total Landscaping happened, there were at least a few days following these events during which Tr*mpers seemed to reckon with a semblance of reality. To this day the top ever post on r/conservative is critical of Jan 6. And the same goes for debates: when Tr*mp bombed against Biden in 2020, conservatives recognized it and talked about it.
But this year has been WILD. They look at this Fox News interview of Kamala and say "she got owned" and "she fumbled" and "she struggled to answer questions" when that is ... untethered from reality. It's just a lie. But they're acting as if they believe it. It's surreal.
And to be fair there are events I learn of from the conservative subreddit that the democrats downplay/spin/try to hide as well, notably Biden's condition several months ago. At least on this one, though, the Dems were eventually forced to reckon with reality but I really wonder what if anything can possibly force that on Tr*mpers.
posted by MiraK at 8:34 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
General observation: this election more than any other in my memory has truly cemented the information-source and/or spin divide between the two sides. I don't think even in 2020 that there was this much of a disconnect between the two camps. For example, when Jan 6th happened or when Four Seasons Total Landscaping happened, there were at least a few days following these events during which Tr*mpers seemed to reckon with a semblance of reality. To this day the top ever post on r/conservative is critical of Jan 6. And the same goes for debates: when Tr*mp bombed against Biden in 2020, conservatives recognized it and talked about it.
But this year has been WILD. They look at this Fox News interview of Kamala and say "she got owned" and "she fumbled" and "she struggled to answer questions" when that is ... untethered from reality. It's just a lie. But they're acting as if they believe it. It's surreal.
And to be fair there are events I learn of from the conservative subreddit that the democrats downplay/spin/try to hide as well, notably Biden's condition several months ago. At least on this one, though, the Dems were eventually forced to reckon with reality but I really wonder what if anything can possibly force that on Tr*mpers.
posted by MiraK at 8:34 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
My vibe is that, as a recent resident of Georgia and current resident of Pennsylvania, the amount of election span I get is way too high. I'm glad my vote finally started to actually matter, but damn y'all/jawn, I can only recycle so much junk mail and reply STOP so many times.
posted by Panjandrum at 8:39 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by Panjandrum at 8:39 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Here on the Oregon coast, a surprisingly red area in a blue state, the Followers of Orange Guy are still out in full force. They have occasional rallies on the edges of parking lots by 101, waving signs and shouting. They hijacked my radio a few months ago - I was sitting at the light while they pranced and cavorted on the corner and suddenly, my radio came on with a big drum roll and somebody said DONALD J. TRUMP! I managed to turn it off. The radio in my 18 year old truck doesn't really work anymore so that was unsettling and infuriating on multiple levels.
Down that same street there is a house that has fully embraced the crazy. They have banners on banners and tons of signs and, recently added, two big inflatable Trumps. That is kind of hilarious in a terrible way - they have inflatable Trumps! Who knew! - and I'm longing to stop and take pictures but, uh, my 18 year old truck is covered with stickers that pretty much out me as a member of the other team. Even before I added my latest, which says I Read Books - You Know Who I'm Voting For and a little Harris / Walz under that in red.
In town it's more balanced. There is a Trump house near my granddaughter's school that is surrounded on all sides by Harris Walz houses, that always gives me a giggle. I put out a small yard sign that says Harris / Walz, Obviously and my asshole neighbor responded by putting out a big sagging Trump banner. Most of my neighborhood is too working class to do political signs - we're broke, we're working all the time and barely making ends meet: we don't have time. And there are a lot of rentals and a strong Hispanic presence. In a saner world we'd be awash in Democrat or Working Families or something signs (full disclosure: I myself am a Pacific Green) but no. I hope the neighborhood votes but I suspect most do not bother.
I'm terrified, honestly. I had hope for a few brief shining minutes there but that has fled. I just don't see a way out of this without a civil war.
posted by mygothlaundry at 8:43 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Down that same street there is a house that has fully embraced the crazy. They have banners on banners and tons of signs and, recently added, two big inflatable Trumps. That is kind of hilarious in a terrible way - they have inflatable Trumps! Who knew! - and I'm longing to stop and take pictures but, uh, my 18 year old truck is covered with stickers that pretty much out me as a member of the other team. Even before I added my latest, which says I Read Books - You Know Who I'm Voting For and a little Harris / Walz under that in red.
In town it's more balanced. There is a Trump house near my granddaughter's school that is surrounded on all sides by Harris Walz houses, that always gives me a giggle. I put out a small yard sign that says Harris / Walz, Obviously and my asshole neighbor responded by putting out a big sagging Trump banner. Most of my neighborhood is too working class to do political signs - we're broke, we're working all the time and barely making ends meet: we don't have time. And there are a lot of rentals and a strong Hispanic presence. In a saner world we'd be awash in Democrat or Working Families or something signs (full disclosure: I myself am a Pacific Green) but no. I hope the neighborhood votes but I suspect most do not bother.
I'm terrified, honestly. I had hope for a few brief shining minutes there but that has fled. I just don't see a way out of this without a civil war.
posted by mygothlaundry at 8:43 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
I'm in the northwest suburbs of Chicago. The protests about the war in Gaza that occur semi-regularly in front of a nearby park have started to have Green/Stein signs. While there are lots of different kids of people at the protests, I live in an area with a large population of Pakistani/Indian people, and with a fair number of Muslims. It's anecdata, but several of my Muslim friends in the area are indeed leaning toward Stein now. Segments of those folks voting Green/Stein won't change anything in Illinois, but in nearby Michigan, that could be bad for Harris.
We do not need to take over this thread about vibes to have the same I/P arguments we always have. And I think we can assume we have the same entrenched takes as ever on the value/dangers of protest votes. I pledge to plant plant a new tree on the easement out front if we just stay on vibes and don't take that derail.
But if we're talking strictly about vibes on whether Harris or Trump wins, my Muslim neighbors are increasingly not on board with the blue team. So now I'm really wondering about Michigan, which is a lot tighter race and has many more Muslim folks.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:44 AM on October 23 [16 favorites]
We do not need to take over this thread about vibes to have the same I/P arguments we always have. And I think we can assume we have the same entrenched takes as ever on the value/dangers of protest votes. I pledge to plant plant a new tree on the easement out front if we just stay on vibes and don't take that derail.
But if we're talking strictly about vibes on whether Harris or Trump wins, my Muslim neighbors are increasingly not on board with the blue team. So now I'm really wondering about Michigan, which is a lot tighter race and has many more Muslim folks.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:44 AM on October 23 [16 favorites]
South Florida vibe report: I have seen one group of Trump sign-wavers at an intersection - it seems like in 2020 they were all over the place. I also have not seen any pickup trucks flying giant Trump flags from the back - those were everywhere last time around. I have not seen (and do not expect to see) any Harris sign-wavers. Harris is running TV ads here and Trump is not (I'm sure he assumes Florida is in the bag), but the bulk of the political advertising is directed toward two ballot questions - Amendment 3 (legalizing marijuana) and Amendment 4 (legalizing abortion). Early voting started here on Monday, I'm planning to go on Friday.
posted by Daily Alice at 8:45 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
posted by Daily Alice at 8:45 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
Reporting from abroad: wondering why the Harris campaign is leaving all the grungy Gen-X votes on the table by not playing up the "Looking California / Feeling Minnesota" bit that fits this ticket so well.
posted by St. Oops at 8:46 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 8:46 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
metafilter: we can assume we have the same entrenched takes as ever
posted by paper chromatographologist at 8:47 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 8:47 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Virginia checking in. I've been on permanent absentee voting for a while now, although my wife never signed up for that so she'll have to go stand in line next month. I filled out and returned my ballot the same day it arrived. Feeling pretty good about Virginia staying blue.
Locally, the backstory for a Richmond city council candidate has been falling apart in multiple ways, and that has been fun to watch.
In other local news, hardware store Lowe's corporate HQ is promoting our local store mascot, Francine.
posted by emelenjr at 8:48 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Locally, the backstory for a Richmond city council candidate has been falling apart in multiple ways, and that has been fun to watch.
In other local news, hardware store Lowe's corporate HQ is promoting our local store mascot, Francine.
posted by emelenjr at 8:48 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
My vibe is that, as a recent resident of Georgia and current resident of Pennsylvania, the amount of election span I get is way too high.
Wisconsin solidarity.
I feel like every other week Obama, Walz, or Harris is in either Milwaukee or Madison. Not complaining, but between that and the RNC we’ve sure had our share of political visitors for the year.
I drive a lot between very red and very blue places, so I see a broad mix of signage. My favorite was a street full of Trump/Hovde signs save for one house in the dead center with a MAGNETO WAS RIGHT sign.
posted by brook horse at 8:54 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Wisconsin solidarity.
I feel like every other week Obama, Walz, or Harris is in either Milwaukee or Madison. Not complaining, but between that and the RNC we’ve sure had our share of political visitors for the year.
I drive a lot between very red and very blue places, so I see a broad mix of signage. My favorite was a street full of Trump/Hovde signs save for one house in the dead center with a MAGNETO WAS RIGHT sign.
posted by brook horse at 8:54 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Not overly worried here in CO, though we have an ENORMOUS number of ballot initiatives that mean I have to set aside a good hour plus to fill out my ballot at home.
But nationally, it's a pretty persistent swing between hope and bleakness. I don't think anyone knows, and that's one thing, but the possibility of voting intimidation/misinfo pushing things makes me feel crazy. But I also know the Dems have lawyers lined up. But I also lived through the 2000 stolen election when they gave up too soon. So. It's a long 13 days ahead.
posted by emjaybee at 8:55 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
But nationally, it's a pretty persistent swing between hope and bleakness. I don't think anyone knows, and that's one thing, but the possibility of voting intimidation/misinfo pushing things makes me feel crazy. But I also know the Dems have lawyers lined up. But I also lived through the 2000 stolen election when they gave up too soon. So. It's a long 13 days ahead.
posted by emjaybee at 8:55 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
So a cop shot and killed a black man two days ago. The neighborhood erupted in rioting, the righties are defending the police and blaming immigration and the lefties are blaming the righties. Two buses have been burnt, with added garbage can fires and assorted vandalism, spreading to other neighborhoods.
So, vibe is not good.
What, you haven't heard this news? Oh yeah, it's Lisbon
posted by chavenet at 8:57 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
So, vibe is not good.
What, you haven't heard this news? Oh yeah, it's Lisbon
posted by chavenet at 8:57 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
I'm surprised at the amount of Trumpers in our neighborhood, given the number of races and immigrants of all shapes and sizes (Latino, some I think are Kurds?, Sudanese, etc) that live here but also not surprised given it's non-Twin-Cities Minnesota. The one guy with a big flagpole flying the American flag in his yard added a Trump 2024 flag a few months ago, and then a yard sign, and then several other yard signs popped up at nearby homes. A Democrat canvasser came to my door and seemed somewhat shellshocked and then somewhat surprised that I was all on board with what he had for me. About half of the homes are duplex rentals with 3 bedrooms, so there's not poor people but not rich people, people with a chip on their shoulder over how somebody else is holding them back. But, there's several Harris-Walz signs, mostly in the yards of older retired couples. That seems to be the vibe around here, the 30-somethings with families struggling to pay for a pickup truck and an SUV and a living space bigger than they can afford see Trump as the solution for their problems.
I recently had a chance to drive to south-central Minnesota along two-lane state highways, and it was Trump signs everywhere. Constantly along the highway, every stop-sign intersection, huge 4'x8' signs, some with vague but believable threats towards opposition, often with a Fischbach sign nearby. Again, surprising in that the community I went to has a suuuper big Latino population.
But, happily the right-wingers at my work have stopped with their conspiracy theories and other bullshit as 'smalltalk' when I pushed back in ways they didn't expect, so they finally gave up when I wouldn't argue the parroted talking points and expected them to prove the things they stated.
Sadly, my stepson seems to be taken in by propaganda from watching too much TikTok and stopped talking to his mother because she pushed back on the untruths he was spreading. I mean, it's probably better for her sanity but it's still sad that he can't see past the thin ruse.
My wife and I talked about voting early, but we're travelling until the 4th and she has off the 5th, so we're just going to go vote in person on voting day. I was pretty certain Clinton would win in 2016 and was gobsmacked the next day, I'm worried I'll have a repeat of that if I'm too optimistic.
In non-Trump/Harris news -- I work across the river in North Dakota and the radio is playing ads against the 'legalize marijuana' law on the ballot, and it's crazy insane in its claims of the dangers of pot, like, 1950s church-basement-lecture levels.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:59 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
I recently had a chance to drive to south-central Minnesota along two-lane state highways, and it was Trump signs everywhere. Constantly along the highway, every stop-sign intersection, huge 4'x8' signs, some with vague but believable threats towards opposition, often with a Fischbach sign nearby. Again, surprising in that the community I went to has a suuuper big Latino population.
But, happily the right-wingers at my work have stopped with their conspiracy theories and other bullshit as 'smalltalk' when I pushed back in ways they didn't expect, so they finally gave up when I wouldn't argue the parroted talking points and expected them to prove the things they stated.
Sadly, my stepson seems to be taken in by propaganda from watching too much TikTok and stopped talking to his mother because she pushed back on the untruths he was spreading. I mean, it's probably better for her sanity but it's still sad that he can't see past the thin ruse.
My wife and I talked about voting early, but we're travelling until the 4th and she has off the 5th, so we're just going to go vote in person on voting day. I was pretty certain Clinton would win in 2016 and was gobsmacked the next day, I'm worried I'll have a repeat of that if I'm too optimistic.
In non-Trump/Harris news -- I work across the river in North Dakota and the radio is playing ads against the 'legalize marijuana' law on the ballot, and it's crazy insane in its claims of the dangers of pot, like, 1950s church-basement-lecture levels.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:59 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
From Europe - people are bracing for a Trump win. Dreading, but preparing. And I hear this from all kinds of people - working in Gov, working in the arts, working as builders - same story all around. I tell people that there's no way Trump can win, or at least, that no one really believes he'll win: He's lost every election but one that he's run in and Harris has much, much more money (but my voice sounds/ feels really hollow and I don't think I believe my own shtick.)
The elephant in the room, of course, is 2016, when we went to bed thinking/assuming Hilary would win and woke up to the utterly baffling reality of TFG. And I'm really worried this will be a similar situation. Really worried. I got the kids organized and we voted by mail, claiming a family address in Texas as our voting locale. (Strangely felt bad about not voting in NYState for the first time since the late 80's. I love voting.)
I can't wait for this to be over. I don't need the R's to be humiliated and driven out into the desert... but I would be very happy for TFG to actually pay for his crimes.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:00 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
The elephant in the room, of course, is 2016, when we went to bed thinking/assuming Hilary would win and woke up to the utterly baffling reality of TFG. And I'm really worried this will be a similar situation. Really worried. I got the kids organized and we voted by mail, claiming a family address in Texas as our voting locale. (Strangely felt bad about not voting in NYState for the first time since the late 80's. I love voting.)
I can't wait for this to be over. I don't need the R's to be humiliated and driven out into the desert... but I would be very happy for TFG to actually pay for his crimes.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:00 AM on October 23 [14 favorites]
From Europe - people are bracing for a Trump win. Dreading, but preparing
Yeah, this matches my conversations.
posted by chavenet at 9:05 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Yeah, this matches my conversations.
posted by chavenet at 9:05 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
I don't understand yard signs or bumper stickers. It's not changing hearts or minds. Why would you sign up for harassment by Trump fans? I don't need that conflict in my life.
Waited 1.5 hours to vote early on Monday. I'm 40 and was the youngest person there. There was a guy with a Make America Green Again hat which I'm surprised they didn't make him take off. The first day is always like that-- but apparently it's not really dyimg down as much this year. Peltola is up for reelection too and I'm much more confident about her chances but overall I'm cautiously optimistic.
posted by blnkfrnk at 9:06 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Waited 1.5 hours to vote early on Monday. I'm 40 and was the youngest person there. There was a guy with a Make America Green Again hat which I'm surprised they didn't make him take off. The first day is always like that-- but apparently it's not really dyimg down as much this year. Peltola is up for reelection too and I'm much more confident about her chances but overall I'm cautiously optimistic.
posted by blnkfrnk at 9:06 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Always germane: SNL's 2012 "Undecided Voters" sketch.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:07 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:07 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
I spent my college years in various gay bars dancing around to YMCA with my family friend circle; every time I see a Trump rally dancing around to this gay anthem, I am stunned by the irony of their idiocracy. To add Ave Maria over the top of this travesty is pure farce. Send in the clowns, man. Send in the clowns.
posted by effluvia at 9:13 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
posted by effluvia at 9:13 AM on October 23 [11 favorites]
My northern VA working class/gentrifying neighborhood has a couple of trump signs and a lot more Harris/Waltz signs. Everything's the small yard signs too. It's been nice walking around over the last month and seeing an increase in Harris/Waltz signs.
posted by Art_Pot at 9:19 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by Art_Pot at 9:19 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
coastal Georgia here, wife and I voted last week (Thurs) in and out in minutes, no lines to speak of. There were a lot more voting stations at the polling place than I'd seen before. (I think that's by design)
Feeling and seeing less overtly ORANGE support - still some signage but vastly out matched by Harris/Walz representation.
I'm really hoping there is an unaccounted undercurrent that will drag TFG away permanently.
posted by djseafood at 9:19 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Feeling and seeing less overtly ORANGE support - still some signage but vastly out matched by Harris/Walz representation.
I'm really hoping there is an unaccounted undercurrent that will drag TFG away permanently.
posted by djseafood at 9:19 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
The state of vibes in southern Ontario Canada is currently YIKES .
Have also seen a fair number of idiot Canadian chuds with Trump bumper sticks (yes this is a thing that is fairly common up here).
My wife just sent in her absentee ballot, so that's something at least. Felt good to do that and we're hoping the nazis do not win.
Everything is too expensive and I've turned off all my breaking news alerts because I just cannot handle it. If you need me, I'll be playing The Witcher III and/or Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. I'd rather be anyplace than the timeline we're in.
posted by Fizz at 9:19 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Have also seen a fair number of idiot Canadian chuds with Trump bumper sticks (yes this is a thing that is fairly common up here).
My wife just sent in her absentee ballot, so that's something at least. Felt good to do that and we're hoping the nazis do not win.
Everything is too expensive and I've turned off all my breaking news alerts because I just cannot handle it. If you need me, I'll be playing The Witcher III and/or Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. I'd rather be anyplace than the timeline we're in.
posted by Fizz at 9:19 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Here in deep red East Texas, one of my coworkers who once proudly referred to himself as an "alt-right edgelord" told me he's never voted for a Democrat in his life but he's voting for Allred instead of Cruz. It's made things significantly less tense around the office.
posted by mcdoublewide at 9:20 AM on October 23 [19 favorites]
posted by mcdoublewide at 9:20 AM on October 23 [19 favorites]
vibe in a mostly-conservative part of socal: very few trump-flag pickup trucks. so little signage that it's not even obvious that this is an election year. i'm optimistic.
if i go by internet vibes i'm continually surprised by how many white male leftists are ready to welcome in a fascist dictator because the black woman with the progressive platform just hasn't earned their votes. tiktok comments are full of obvious bots saying the same things. i have to keep telling myself that the internet is not real life.
in the end i'm in a state where my vote doesn't matter. a few million voters in other parts of the country will decide whether i'm still legally a person. just have to wait and see i guess
posted by sharktopus at 9:26 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
if i go by internet vibes i'm continually surprised by how many white male leftists are ready to welcome in a fascist dictator because the black woman with the progressive platform just hasn't earned their votes. tiktok comments are full of obvious bots saying the same things. i have to keep telling myself that the internet is not real life.
in the end i'm in a state where my vote doesn't matter. a few million voters in other parts of the country will decide whether i'm still legally a person. just have to wait and see i guess
posted by sharktopus at 9:26 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
Drove down to LA and back over the last week. Mostly on I5. Going through the Central Valley, did see quite a few “Farmers for Trump” banners, also up in far northern CA, and the guy who owns a lot of land, and is mad at Newsom about water.
The urban/rural divide is still going strong.
posted by Windopaene at 9:26 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
The urban/rural divide is still going strong.
posted by Windopaene at 9:26 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Looking around my neighborhood this week, I conclude that the Skeleton/Pumpkin ticket has a lock on victory.
posted by SPrintF at 9:31 AM on October 23 [31 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 9:31 AM on October 23 [31 favorites]
We've got a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former Secretary of Homeland Security / WH Chief of Staff, both decorated career officers, calling one candidate an outright fascist and recounting his repeated admiration of Hitler. I shouldn't be surprised that this is not the final nail in the coffin, but I am.
Above everything else I have completely lost any trust and sense of commonality with many of the people in this country. I will never forgive their base ignorance, conspiracy-fueled spittle-flecked idiocy, and fulminating hatred of everything other than themselves. I hope they turn viciously on each other for years.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 9:34 AM on October 23 [26 favorites]
Above everything else I have completely lost any trust and sense of commonality with many of the people in this country. I will never forgive their base ignorance, conspiracy-fueled spittle-flecked idiocy, and fulminating hatred of everything other than themselves. I hope they turn viciously on each other for years.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 9:34 AM on October 23 [26 favorites]
Thank you for this thread.
I'm in Western CT and have seen many more Harris/Walz signs than Trump/Vance, but it doesn't give me hope. I have made the declaration to my family and partner that I do not wish to discuss this election from here on out, and will leave the room if anyone tries to start one. My partner is (sadly, for me) a former Bernie fan who got disillusioned and felt that Bernie sold out to the Democrats, and this has made him so anti-Dems that he's talked about casting his vote for Cornel West. I told him he can do whatever he wants, but that I don't want to discuss it with him now or ever, going forward. I tried explaining that his daughter will likely suffer if Trump wins, and he seemed to hear it, but remains bitterly angry at the two-party system we have. I also tried telling him that that system is not going to change in this election cycle, but again, principles. Whatever.
I am too emotional about this to even have a shallow conversation about it. I fear for my son, who just began his teaching career and identifies as queer. I don't fear for me, as I'm a post-menopausal female who will be viewed as worthless in a Trump administration and will probably be left alone to die broke (only half-kidding).
posted by sundrop at 9:44 AM on October 23 [13 favorites]
I'm in Western CT and have seen many more Harris/Walz signs than Trump/Vance, but it doesn't give me hope. I have made the declaration to my family and partner that I do not wish to discuss this election from here on out, and will leave the room if anyone tries to start one. My partner is (sadly, for me) a former Bernie fan who got disillusioned and felt that Bernie sold out to the Democrats, and this has made him so anti-Dems that he's talked about casting his vote for Cornel West. I told him he can do whatever he wants, but that I don't want to discuss it with him now or ever, going forward. I tried explaining that his daughter will likely suffer if Trump wins, and he seemed to hear it, but remains bitterly angry at the two-party system we have. I also tried telling him that that system is not going to change in this election cycle, but again, principles. Whatever.
I am too emotional about this to even have a shallow conversation about it. I fear for my son, who just began his teaching career and identifies as queer. I don't fear for me, as I'm a post-menopausal female who will be viewed as worthless in a Trump administration and will probably be left alone to die broke (only half-kidding).
posted by sundrop at 9:44 AM on October 23 [13 favorites]
I am voting in North Florida tomorrow and cannot wait for the election to be "over for me". What I am really interested in is the abortion amendment. It's unclear to me if it can reach the 60% threshold and the only polling on it I've seen is from quite awhile ago. We also have marijuana on the ballot. I too have seen a commercial on the dangers of pot featuring local police officers.
posted by wittgenstein at 9:44 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
posted by wittgenstein at 9:44 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
I've been doing a fair amount of traveling recently, so I'll give my impressions on the varius areas:
Eastern Central FL: seems solidly trump, at least from the family members I've talked to and yard signs I saw. No Pickups with giant Trump banners though. If there were Harris/Walz signs they weren't noticeable.
Suburban L.A.: a mix of H/W & Trump signs, seemed more H/W, but I wasn't counting, also no pickups.
Western KS: More Trump signs than H/W, BUT there were H/W signs, and this is different than in the past. Previously there had been lots of very large, very noticeable Trump signs in rural KS, this time I only noticed one. Once again no pickups.
Denver & suburbs: It changes by neighborhood here. In some I've seen more Trump, in others More H/W. I have noticed H/W signs where I previously had seen none. I did See a giant flag waving Trump Truck, broken down in a western suburb. However, I was with Trumpy family so I did not point and laugh.
posted by evilDoug at 9:47 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
Eastern Central FL: seems solidly trump, at least from the family members I've talked to and yard signs I saw. No Pickups with giant Trump banners though. If there were Harris/Walz signs they weren't noticeable.
Suburban L.A.: a mix of H/W & Trump signs, seemed more H/W, but I wasn't counting, also no pickups.
Western KS: More Trump signs than H/W, BUT there were H/W signs, and this is different than in the past. Previously there had been lots of very large, very noticeable Trump signs in rural KS, this time I only noticed one. Once again no pickups.
Denver & suburbs: It changes by neighborhood here. In some I've seen more Trump, in others More H/W. I have noticed H/W signs where I previously had seen none. I did See a giant flag waving Trump Truck, broken down in a western suburb. However, I was with Trumpy family so I did not point and laugh.
posted by evilDoug at 9:47 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
Voted absentee on September 26th, have a Harris/Walz sign in my yard that friends gifted me when we were in Detroit in late August. Most other US residents I encounter here are going hard for Harris. Definitely worried about my federal election here a little more though despite it's faraway date. PP is trying hard to move a vote of no-confidence in Trudeau, which would trigger an election and that is not gonna go well.
posted by Kitteh at 9:48 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 9:48 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
We live in Northern Virginia in a fairly blue suburb, but TFG's Virginia golf course is literally in our neighborhood - maybe 3/4 of a mile away as the crow flies. Remember the pic of the cyclist who flipped off the presidential motorcade, got fired from her job, then ran for government? Yeah, that neighborhood.
We had Dem volunteers come around a couple weeks ago with signs. NO ONE in our neighborhood had signs out - it was so weird that we checked our HOA rules to see if that was why (and no, no rules that would prevent). We went ahead and put out the signs for Harris and for the local congressperson, and within 24 hours one of our neighbors knocked on the door and said CONGRATULATIONS on your sign - glad to see it. He said he put signs up previously (blue-candidate signs) and he "lost friends - people don't speak to me anymore". I found that sad and weird.
My husband and I voted yesterday - Loudoun county expanded early voting this week from one location to several, and last night was the first time we had voting hours after 5. Vibe was calm, the place was busy, and I had tears in my eyes when I filled in that bubble. I'm hopeful but also really scared about what might happen. I long for a time when an election doesn't make me feel this way.
posted by ersatzkat at 9:50 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
We had Dem volunteers come around a couple weeks ago with signs. NO ONE in our neighborhood had signs out - it was so weird that we checked our HOA rules to see if that was why (and no, no rules that would prevent). We went ahead and put out the signs for Harris and for the local congressperson, and within 24 hours one of our neighbors knocked on the door and said CONGRATULATIONS on your sign - glad to see it. He said he put signs up previously (blue-candidate signs) and he "lost friends - people don't speak to me anymore". I found that sad and weird.
My husband and I voted yesterday - Loudoun county expanded early voting this week from one location to several, and last night was the first time we had voting hours after 5. Vibe was calm, the place was busy, and I had tears in my eyes when I filled in that bubble. I'm hopeful but also really scared about what might happen. I long for a time when an election doesn't make me feel this way.
posted by ersatzkat at 9:50 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
GA resident. I don’t like Kamala’s odds to take the state. It was somewhat of a minor miracle that we went for Biden, and I think the suburban population that swung Biden has fading memories of how chaotic the Trump admin was and fresh memories of double the normal inflation. Add that to softening support among Black and Hispanic Americans and I’m worried she’ll fall short.
In a broader context, if Trump loses, it’s going to be two months of a full-court press from the right wing. I’m concerned about violence. And if we do get through it without that, we are still going to wake up on Jan 20 with half the country completely unmoored from reality with no end in sight.
I will be voting tomorrow.
posted by Room 101 at 9:54 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
In a broader context, if Trump loses, it’s going to be two months of a full-court press from the right wing. I’m concerned about violence. And if we do get through it without that, we are still going to wake up on Jan 20 with half the country completely unmoored from reality with no end in sight.
I will be voting tomorrow.
posted by Room 101 at 9:54 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Oh and perhaps another vibe check from my personal friend group in upstate NY: Two leftie IRL friends who formerly voted Biden have been picking facebook fights with me in mutual friends' political posts. Like the other day I commented "thank you" on a friend's post about how she's organizing a postcard writing group, and one of my friends came at me going "what's even the difference between the two sides this time" (referring of course to IP).
I haven't been engaging, because I reached the incoherent screaming stage in political discourse a long, long time ago. I don't even know how to parse these friends' positions anymore and I don't want to know. I have no energy to even think about them to empathize or to excoriate. I remove myself from every conversation. I wish I had more capacity to engage. I wish I had the emotional bandwidth to at least listen to them, because it almost seems like the fact that their anger and pain is unheard makes their hearts more broken and their attitude more stubborn.
Alas, our political hellscape and my own anxiety has left me with not enough resources to provide them even this modicum of respect which should be their right. The most I can do is give my thanks for constructive efforts that are being made by other people, and sometimes I can chip in for those constructive efforts. I did a few hours of phone banking (somehow talking to strangers uses up a lot less energy than talking to friends). I donated money to various causes.
I pray that somehow we will get through this time without electing TFG. That's all.
posted by MiraK at 9:59 AM on October 23 [19 favorites]
I haven't been engaging, because I reached the incoherent screaming stage in political discourse a long, long time ago. I don't even know how to parse these friends' positions anymore and I don't want to know. I have no energy to even think about them to empathize or to excoriate. I remove myself from every conversation. I wish I had more capacity to engage. I wish I had the emotional bandwidth to at least listen to them, because it almost seems like the fact that their anger and pain is unheard makes their hearts more broken and their attitude more stubborn.
Alas, our political hellscape and my own anxiety has left me with not enough resources to provide them even this modicum of respect which should be their right. The most I can do is give my thanks for constructive efforts that are being made by other people, and sometimes I can chip in for those constructive efforts. I did a few hours of phone banking (somehow talking to strangers uses up a lot less energy than talking to friends). I donated money to various causes.
I pray that somehow we will get through this time without electing TFG. That's all.
posted by MiraK at 9:59 AM on October 23 [19 favorites]
My ballot has been counted in Maryland as of this morning, the last of my postcards to swing states are almost done, and I am trying to focus on fall weather and Halloween, not election vibes.
Speaking of vibes, I have questions about the messages the postcards to swing state folks have allegedly tested as likely to increase turnout. The "most likely to increase turnout" message is something along the lines of "who you vote for is private, but whether you vote is public," and I get that social persuasion is a thing, but that just seems really creepy. I did not use that message anyway.
I will be driving back to Maryland from Minnesota early next week; we'll see what the Midwest/Rustbelt vibes from the highway are like.
posted by the primroses were over at 10:13 AM on October 23 [1 favorite]
Speaking of vibes, I have questions about the messages the postcards to swing state folks have allegedly tested as likely to increase turnout. The "most likely to increase turnout" message is something along the lines of "who you vote for is private, but whether you vote is public," and I get that social persuasion is a thing, but that just seems really creepy. I did not use that message anyway.
I will be driving back to Maryland from Minnesota early next week; we'll see what the Midwest/Rustbelt vibes from the highway are like.
posted by the primroses were over at 10:13 AM on October 23 [1 favorite]
(Insert standard "signs don't vote" disclaimer....)
During my forays into rural Minnesota and Wisconsin this summer, it seemed like there was a notable drop in Trumpish paraphernalia compared to similar times before 2020, or even 2021, when there wasn't an election coming up, but there were still farmhouses and monster trucks decked out like parade floats from time to time. That might have changed in the last couple of weeks or months. Fischbach signs in northwestern Minnesota this last summer might have been campaigning during the primary, when there was an even-crazier nutcase trying to outflank her on the extreme right. (He lost.)
Somebody who supports Democrats had a display up on the cute little anytown-USA main street of Cumberland, Wisconsin this summer, about why you shouldn't vote for Trump, or Republicans in general. It was on point.
In the Twin Cities, of course, it's a sea of Harris/Walz signs, but stretching out into the suburbs farther than I used to expect. A few Trumpier districts in northern Ramsey county are still hanging on. In the city itself, you'll see a single house (or a single landlord!) with Trump decor trying to overcompensate for their relative isolation.
On broadcast TV, the Twin Cities gets spillover from Wisconsin, which is an easy drive away. Mostly annoying, but Tammy Baldwin has that one commercial where the elderly woman refers to Hovde, the Republican, as "WHAT A JERK!". Honestly, that's a ray of sunshine to me.
Biggest unknown here is the indirect Dean Phillips fallout. Remember him? He's not running for re-election. Kelly Morrison is running for his seat, MN-3, she's just fine and she'll win. Problem is that she's currently a State Senator, now there's an election to fill the seat she's vacating, and the Minnesota Senate is evenly divided between DFL and Republicans. Losing that seat could mean losing the DFL 'trifecta' in state government that's worked so well under Walz. Crossing my fingers on that race, hoping it comes out okay.
posted by gimonca at 10:20 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
During my forays into rural Minnesota and Wisconsin this summer, it seemed like there was a notable drop in Trumpish paraphernalia compared to similar times before 2020, or even 2021, when there wasn't an election coming up, but there were still farmhouses and monster trucks decked out like parade floats from time to time. That might have changed in the last couple of weeks or months. Fischbach signs in northwestern Minnesota this last summer might have been campaigning during the primary, when there was an even-crazier nutcase trying to outflank her on the extreme right. (He lost.)
Somebody who supports Democrats had a display up on the cute little anytown-USA main street of Cumberland, Wisconsin this summer, about why you shouldn't vote for Trump, or Republicans in general. It was on point.
In the Twin Cities, of course, it's a sea of Harris/Walz signs, but stretching out into the suburbs farther than I used to expect. A few Trumpier districts in northern Ramsey county are still hanging on. In the city itself, you'll see a single house (or a single landlord!) with Trump decor trying to overcompensate for their relative isolation.
On broadcast TV, the Twin Cities gets spillover from Wisconsin, which is an easy drive away. Mostly annoying, but Tammy Baldwin has that one commercial where the elderly woman refers to Hovde, the Republican, as "WHAT A JERK!". Honestly, that's a ray of sunshine to me.
Biggest unknown here is the indirect Dean Phillips fallout. Remember him? He's not running for re-election. Kelly Morrison is running for his seat, MN-3, she's just fine and she'll win. Problem is that she's currently a State Senator, now there's an election to fill the seat she's vacating, and the Minnesota Senate is evenly divided between DFL and Republicans. Losing that seat could mean losing the DFL 'trifecta' in state government that's worked so well under Walz. Crossing my fingers on that race, hoping it comes out okay.
posted by gimonca at 10:20 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
Wisconsin here, Dane County, affluent suburb of Madison, though I am not affluent. Dane is always solidly blue, but you'll see republican signs more often here, I guess because "affluent". Also it's a very short drive to areas I consider rural. I have seen exactly 3 houses with Trump and republican candidate signs. Almost nothing out in rural areas I drive through. There were more last time around.
But an anecdote: when I bought my house 6 years ago it was pretty small, old, a little run down, so cheap for the area. My nextdoor neighbor looks to be in his upper 70s, is a veteran but I don't know when he served. He has a restored Willys army Jeep in his garage he occasionally tools around in.
When I (cis white dude) was moving in he said they were relieved because they were worried colored people might move in, I guess because it was a cheaper house? Otherwise he's very nice. Snowplows my driveway sometimes without me asking. I don't think I've ever seen political signs in his yard, only things like support for farmers or veterans.
A couple days ago he put up a sign, square, white, with a big blue dot and no text. I had to look up what it meant.
posted by Billy Rubin at 10:22 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
But an anecdote: when I bought my house 6 years ago it was pretty small, old, a little run down, so cheap for the area. My nextdoor neighbor looks to be in his upper 70s, is a veteran but I don't know when he served. He has a restored Willys army Jeep in his garage he occasionally tools around in.
When I (cis white dude) was moving in he said they were relieved because they were worried colored people might move in, I guess because it was a cheaper house? Otherwise he's very nice. Snowplows my driveway sometimes without me asking. I don't think I've ever seen political signs in his yard, only things like support for farmers or veterans.
A couple days ago he put up a sign, square, white, with a big blue dot and no text. I had to look up what it meant.
posted by Billy Rubin at 10:22 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
Checking in from the Democratic People's Republic of Astoria, Queens. We don't start early voting until the 26th, but a lot o the discussion online and in real life has surrounded the six ballot initiatives on the NYC ballot; one a statewide Equal Rights Amendment and five that are power-grabs by Mayor Adams to revise the city charter. Most people are in favour of 1 and opposed to 2-6, seemingly. #2 kind of depends on if you hate immigrant food vendors or not.
While we are "very diverse" here in Astoria and have DSA representation all the way to the federal level, we do have several conservative precincts across the neighbourhood. In previous years, many of these residents were loud and in your face about their Trump support, decking out their urban pickup trucks with flags and such. Have not seen a single Trump sign this year, even deep into these areas. I am seeing way more Harris-Walz signs and anti-Trump signs around than I recall seeing in 2020 or 2016. I can only assume people are much more enthusiastic this year.
Apart from the ballot initiatives I mentioned, it's an off-year for local elections, so we're not seeing quite as much canvassing from candidates as we normally would, since New York is not typically competitive for the Presidential race. AOC's inurrection-loving opponent is running another grift campaign. The only sign I've seen for her is in the same location as last time: heavily taped to a utility box across from the local Catholic Church.
We have a sizeable Muslim population in Astoria from both South Asia and the Middle East. There hasn't been much protest activity in recent months over Gaza and I haven't heard or read much discussion locally about any implications there for the election. I'm in graduate school and my campus has seen a lot more protests since the start of the school year and our main building was vandalized with anti-semitic graffiti a few weeks ago. So the vibes on campus seem mixed.
My own personal vibes? I'm definitely considering becoming a low-information voter the next two weeks, though I will probably fail at that. I really think Trump is going to win.
posted by Captaintripps at 10:23 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
While we are "very diverse" here in Astoria and have DSA representation all the way to the federal level, we do have several conservative precincts across the neighbourhood. In previous years, many of these residents were loud and in your face about their Trump support, decking out their urban pickup trucks with flags and such. Have not seen a single Trump sign this year, even deep into these areas. I am seeing way more Harris-Walz signs and anti-Trump signs around than I recall seeing in 2020 or 2016. I can only assume people are much more enthusiastic this year.
Apart from the ballot initiatives I mentioned, it's an off-year for local elections, so we're not seeing quite as much canvassing from candidates as we normally would, since New York is not typically competitive for the Presidential race. AOC's inurrection-loving opponent is running another grift campaign. The only sign I've seen for her is in the same location as last time: heavily taped to a utility box across from the local Catholic Church.
We have a sizeable Muslim population in Astoria from both South Asia and the Middle East. There hasn't been much protest activity in recent months over Gaza and I haven't heard or read much discussion locally about any implications there for the election. I'm in graduate school and my campus has seen a lot more protests since the start of the school year and our main building was vandalized with anti-semitic graffiti a few weeks ago. So the vibes on campus seem mixed.
My own personal vibes? I'm definitely considering becoming a low-information voter the next two weeks, though I will probably fail at that. I really think Trump is going to win.
posted by Captaintripps at 10:23 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
In rural, small town, and suburban rustbelt I see fewer MAGA signs than previous elections, and surprisingly more rural Harris/Walz signs. But also fewer signs in general. There is concern of harassment, now and post-election, after a number of suburban Harris signs were destroyed.
Conversationally, people mostly express centr-ish (polite?) weariness of everything, spiked with a variety of intimated and veiled concerns, though high-information voters overwhelmingly support Harris. Much more lucid conviction than fanaticism this time.
I’ve been apprehensive… well, my whole life, Carter fading to Reagan etc, especially since W, Palin, and then 2016, but also allowing myself to believe in the many millions of us who are committed to mutual decency and wellbeing. So I guess self-soothing platitudes? I genuinely have no idea how this is going to actually pan out.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 10:32 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
Conversationally, people mostly express centr-ish (polite?) weariness of everything, spiked with a variety of intimated and veiled concerns, though high-information voters overwhelmingly support Harris. Much more lucid conviction than fanaticism this time.
I’ve been apprehensive… well, my whole life, Carter fading to Reagan etc, especially since W, Palin, and then 2016, but also allowing myself to believe in the many millions of us who are committed to mutual decency and wellbeing. So I guess self-soothing platitudes? I genuinely have no idea how this is going to actually pan out.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 10:32 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
Vibes are good in blue Bay Area Alameda, CA. We were the first people in our neighborhood to put up Harris signs. Someone stole our KAMALA HARRIS: OBVIOUSLY sign, but I'm pretty sure they stole it because it was cool.
A bunch of our friends are caravanning to Nevada to canvas, which they didn't do in 2016 or 2020.
Everything except the polls make me think Harris will win, maybe comfortably. I think she might win a couple of surprise states. The polls have tightened recently, but based on what? Trump has been cancelling appearances and acting increasingly insane.
On the other hand, if Trump wins I'm frightened of living in a totalitarian state for the rest of my life (I'm 60). Our daughter's 12, has already had her rights taken away, and I worry about her.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:41 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
A bunch of our friends are caravanning to Nevada to canvas, which they didn't do in 2016 or 2020.
Everything except the polls make me think Harris will win, maybe comfortably. I think she might win a couple of surprise states. The polls have tightened recently, but based on what? Trump has been cancelling appearances and acting increasingly insane.
On the other hand, if Trump wins I'm frightened of living in a totalitarian state for the rest of my life (I'm 60). Our daughter's 12, has already had her rights taken away, and I worry about her.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:41 AM on October 23 [10 favorites]
I’m from Canada (southern Ontario) and I am scared witless. The idea that the United States is a few thousand votes in swing states away from descending into authoritarianism or fascism is frightening beyond words. I have family and friends who live south of the border and I am worried for them and for all of us.
I’ve marked November 5th as the US election date in my calendar to ensure that I don’t plan anything for the next day - I’ll likely have a sleepless night from watching and worrying.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 10:44 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
I’ve marked November 5th as the US election date in my calendar to ensure that I don’t plan anything for the next day - I’ll likely have a sleepless night from watching and worrying.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 10:44 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
My mom, who was radicalized by talk radio, sent her absentee ballot in yesterday and sent me a photo of it, saying "Go Trump. First time ever I have voted absentee. Feels so good to get my ballot in early. Can't wait for no tax on social security."
Her husband posted on FB to the effect of "just asking questions but that hurricane was really conveniently directed, wasn't it?"
Things never made a lot of sense, but they make even less now.
posted by PussKillian at 10:49 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
Her husband posted on FB to the effect of "just asking questions but that hurricane was really conveniently directed, wasn't it?"
Things never made a lot of sense, but they make even less now.
posted by PussKillian at 10:49 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
posted by chavenet at 10:53 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 10:53 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
The vibes in my personal bubble are just rancid anxiety all the way around, basically. It feels like a truly unsustainable level of anxiety, tbh! And I fully understand the reasons for it, both for me personally and for everyone else, I'm basically involved in a 24/7 therapy session with myself trying to stop refreshing Bluesky and ruminating on what is fundamentally unknowable until election day, but like, none of that changes the inescapable fact that it Feels Bad, Man. And then I tell myself, well, sit with that feeling if it's inescapable, or do something concrete, no matter how small, but, well, it still Feels Bad, Man! It leads me to want any reassurance that things will be okay, which leads to more refreshing of various social media and news, but of course all the smart people are like, "yeah, this one's a coin toss, it's irresponsible to suggest anything else." And they're right! But that leads us, again, to Feels Very Bad, Man.
Though tbh, at this point, I think the collective Dem anxiety is intractable. Even if the polls were suddenly +10 Harris, even if Trump keeled over with a stroke, even if everything went perfectly right for Harris from here on out, I feel like everyone would still be anxious and dooming. We're too traumatized, the stakes are too high, there's too little trust in the information environment. There's nothing for it but to white knuckle it out and vote and contribute however you can.
I will say the one thing that has made me feel marginally better was this article, which is very sportsy but hang in there until he gets to the point, which is: stop watching the stats (polls), watch the actual game (campaign). Of course one can doomsay even this, so whatever, we're still at coin toss, rancid anxiety levels!
posted by yasaman at 10:55 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
Though tbh, at this point, I think the collective Dem anxiety is intractable. Even if the polls were suddenly +10 Harris, even if Trump keeled over with a stroke, even if everything went perfectly right for Harris from here on out, I feel like everyone would still be anxious and dooming. We're too traumatized, the stakes are too high, there's too little trust in the information environment. There's nothing for it but to white knuckle it out and vote and contribute however you can.
I will say the one thing that has made me feel marginally better was this article, which is very sportsy but hang in there until he gets to the point, which is: stop watching the stats (polls), watch the actual game (campaign). Of course one can doomsay even this, so whatever, we're still at coin toss, rancid anxiety levels!
posted by yasaman at 10:55 AM on October 23 [9 favorites]
hang in there until he gets to the point, which is: stop watching the stats (polls), watch the actual game (campaign).
Harris is holding/has recently held events in Texas and Florida, so one would assume her internals are looking goooooooood.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:08 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Harris is holding/has recently held events in Texas and Florida, so one would assume her internals are looking goooooooood.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:08 AM on October 23 [3 favorites]
They hijacked my radio a few months ago - I was sitting at the light while they pranced and cavorted on the corner and suddenly, my radio came on with a big drum roll and somebody said DONALD J. TRUMP!
Yuck. Report that crap to the FCC.
posted by eviemath at 11:11 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
Yuck. Report that crap to the FCC.
posted by eviemath at 11:11 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
In Montana's capital, there are a lot of signs for local Democratic candidates, but relatively few for Harris. That may be just to appease the yahoos, a friend of mine had her Harris sign stolen. There's not much in the way of Trump signs either, at least in town, outside that changes rapidly.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:11 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:11 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
"rancid anxiety" is a great term. I have it for sure.
I don't understand yard signs or bumper stickers.
Personally, I breathe a tiny sigh of relief when I see one out in the wild (in my very purple town in Minnesota). So, I wear my "Harris, Obviously" hat even though I feel life a doofus wearing a political hat. I get about one compliment per outing. I'm not wearing it out to annoy Magas but to give a moment of hope to Democrats.
I drive through a very red rural Wisconsin area regularly, there are SO MANY Trump signs but here's the thing - thanks to consolidation, it is often one person who owns a great deal of farmland. So what you see is the exact same Trump sign repeated 8 times - that's the span of that person's corn fields. Then a break, then a different farm owner has a different flavor Trump sign repeated. There are lots of Trump stores around here (that's what they're officially called) and those people must be making money! There is also a handpainted sign that gets changed every few years but always has profanity directed towards Nancy Pelosi and whatever other Dem is handy at the moment. I'm thinking, ok guy, I hate Trump but I'm not out in the barn doing arts and crafts about it. You need a hobby.
My neighbors usually put up a Trump sign. They didn't this year.
The Letters to the Editor in my town's paper are going wild and are very blue.
The vibes are mixed!
posted by Emmy Rae at 11:12 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I don't understand yard signs or bumper stickers.
Personally, I breathe a tiny sigh of relief when I see one out in the wild (in my very purple town in Minnesota). So, I wear my "Harris, Obviously" hat even though I feel life a doofus wearing a political hat. I get about one compliment per outing. I'm not wearing it out to annoy Magas but to give a moment of hope to Democrats.
I drive through a very red rural Wisconsin area regularly, there are SO MANY Trump signs but here's the thing - thanks to consolidation, it is often one person who owns a great deal of farmland. So what you see is the exact same Trump sign repeated 8 times - that's the span of that person's corn fields. Then a break, then a different farm owner has a different flavor Trump sign repeated. There are lots of Trump stores around here (that's what they're officially called) and those people must be making money! There is also a handpainted sign that gets changed every few years but always has profanity directed towards Nancy Pelosi and whatever other Dem is handy at the moment. I'm thinking, ok guy, I hate Trump but I'm not out in the barn doing arts and crafts about it. You need a hobby.
My neighbors usually put up a Trump sign. They didn't this year.
The Letters to the Editor in my town's paper are going wild and are very blue.
The vibes are mixed!
posted by Emmy Rae at 11:12 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
There's a house that I drive by with a yard that is COVERED in signage. Half the signs are for Trump, half for Harris. Except for one large sign in the middle, that apolitically states:
"THIS IS A DUPLEX"
I have to imagine that they're having a real fun time.
posted by Rudy_Wiser at 11:13 AM on October 23 [36 favorites]
"THIS IS A DUPLEX"
I have to imagine that they're having a real fun time.
posted by Rudy_Wiser at 11:13 AM on October 23 [36 favorites]
I've been a strong believer in the polls for a while now, but now I'm skeptical. Like, Trump won against a historically unpopular and problematic candidate with the Trump surprise factor. Now he doesn't have that, the Dems changed things up and are running a not-historically unpopular candidate that's actually running a decent campaign and theres a lot to be excited about, AND we know the stakes are that much higher. Its all very very hard to wrap my head around if the polls are accurately reflected reality.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:13 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:13 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
While I would really like to hope Carville is right here (and he does make some good points) any prediction Carville makes moving forward will forever be sullied for me by his absolute certainty that the guy who was going to win the Democratic nomination in 2020, defeat Trump, and become the 46th President of the United States was "John F. Kennedy re-cloned, you can't get any better than this guy"... Michael Bennet.
So, you know, hopefully this prediction pans out a little better than that one.
posted by Method Man at 11:14 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
While I would really like to hope Carville is right here (and he does make some good points) any prediction Carville makes moving forward will forever be sullied for me by his absolute certainty that the guy who was going to win the Democratic nomination in 2020, defeat Trump, and become the 46th President of the United States was "John F. Kennedy re-cloned, you can't get any better than this guy"... Michael Bennet.
So, you know, hopefully this prediction pans out a little better than that one.
posted by Method Man at 11:14 AM on October 23 [6 favorites]
I live in the Echo Park neighborhood of Los Angeles and have been surprised to see multiple (not one, but just a few) Trump flags up in my neighborhood, more than I saw during a trip to rural Michigan this summer. These are small apartment buildings and so what can you say, landlords are gonna landlord. I've also been volunteering for a nearby city council campaign and have seen some RFK stuff--my guess is some of the Trump stuff is --to invoke Harris--in the VENN DIAGRAM with RFK.
My first wave of pessimism came last week, when I read this New Yorker piece about blue collar workers and then listened to an episode of the Daily about Nevada. The NYer piece goes on and on about the indignity suffered by communities where there is still literal rubble where factories existed prior to NAFTA, and the Daily piece is basically about people getting rent increases so high that they function as eviction notices.
This shifted my vibe. I don't think the people in these stories would be wrong to determine that the Democratic Party has no plan for them, and people vote with their worst selves when they're in that frame of mind. On the flipside, Kamala Harris has been incredible on reframing abortion as the urgent civil rights issue that it is, and damn that Medicare plan of hers sounds appealing. The vibe is mixed.
posted by kensington314 at 11:20 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
My first wave of pessimism came last week, when I read this New Yorker piece about blue collar workers and then listened to an episode of the Daily about Nevada. The NYer piece goes on and on about the indignity suffered by communities where there is still literal rubble where factories existed prior to NAFTA, and the Daily piece is basically about people getting rent increases so high that they function as eviction notices.
This shifted my vibe. I don't think the people in these stories would be wrong to determine that the Democratic Party has no plan for them, and people vote with their worst selves when they're in that frame of mind. On the flipside, Kamala Harris has been incredible on reframing abortion as the urgent civil rights issue that it is, and damn that Medicare plan of hers sounds appealing. The vibe is mixed.
posted by kensington314 at 11:20 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I live in one of those countries Trump probably considers a shithole, and I'm wondering whether the US will invade us / bomb us anytime soon if he's elected president, and whether I'll be unemployed by the inevitable economic crash that will happen if he decides to do mass deportations.
posted by Omon Ra at 11:27 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
posted by Omon Ra at 11:27 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
I recently went to a very conservative part of a very blue state (that I've been going to for decades) and was surprised at how many Harris/Walz signs there were. There were very few red signs.
That said, my neighbor is planning to leave his house to the NRA (sad).
posted by constraint at 11:28 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
That said, my neighbor is planning to leave his house to the NRA (sad).
posted by constraint at 11:28 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Like, Trump won against a historically unpopular and problematic candidate with the Trump surprise factor. Now he doesn't have that, the Dems changed things up and are running a not-historically unpopular candidate that's actually running a decent campaign and theres a lot to be excited about, AND we know the stakes are that much higher. Its all very very hard to wrap my head around if the polls are accurately reflected reality.
Seconding this. If Kamala wins, I'll be really interested in the conversation around polling in the ensuing few months. If she doesn't, I'll be deep inside an unending panic attack and will forget to check in on this conversation. But there's just something about Trump's fundamentals that have changed. He had novelty and dissatisfaction and an unfiltered approach that had a wacky "Bulworth" quality to it, which for people who hate the political status quo and don't pay much attention, you know, it worked.
Now he has . . . no novelty. And he's talking about Arnold Palmer's penis. And he's exceedingly boring. It just feels like his superpowers have been well kryptonited away at this point. I don't get his margin in the polls, nor do I get the sometimes wild difference between national and swing state polls in the same poll. Why should Harris be doing several points better in Pennsylvania than nationwide, for example? It doesn't make sense, but you see polls like that.
If Trump still hating the system, while being boring and pathetic, is still enough for a majority of working class voters in swing states . . . I mean, it'll be too late to do much soul searching but I hope Kamala wins and they STILL do some soul searching about how to get back the working class. You might have to drop a few of your oligarchic allies and give those back to the Republicans be allowed to win back the working class, Dems.
posted by kensington314 at 11:31 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
Seconding this. If Kamala wins, I'll be really interested in the conversation around polling in the ensuing few months. If she doesn't, I'll be deep inside an unending panic attack and will forget to check in on this conversation. But there's just something about Trump's fundamentals that have changed. He had novelty and dissatisfaction and an unfiltered approach that had a wacky "Bulworth" quality to it, which for people who hate the political status quo and don't pay much attention, you know, it worked.
Now he has . . . no novelty. And he's talking about Arnold Palmer's penis. And he's exceedingly boring. It just feels like his superpowers have been well kryptonited away at this point. I don't get his margin in the polls, nor do I get the sometimes wild difference between national and swing state polls in the same poll. Why should Harris be doing several points better in Pennsylvania than nationwide, for example? It doesn't make sense, but you see polls like that.
If Trump still hating the system, while being boring and pathetic, is still enough for a majority of working class voters in swing states . . . I mean, it'll be too late to do much soul searching but I hope Kamala wins and they STILL do some soul searching about how to get back the working class. You might have to drop a few of your oligarchic allies and give those back to the Republicans be allowed to win back the working class, Dems.
posted by kensington314 at 11:31 AM on October 23 [4 favorites]
Saw a guy with a "Jill Stein 2024" shirt on the bus yesterday.
I sent in my ballot right after Indigenous People's Day and got an email yesterday that it had been counted. Yay California!
I haven't seen too many Harris signs in my neighborhood. Presumably we're so deep blue everyone thinks it goes without saying. Mostly for local candidates and measures.
It's really weird seeing people from outside our area simping so hard for TFG. But even here one of the neighbors responded to news of wildfire evacuations in Berkeley with worries about "thugs" looting the unattended properties. Take your valium, Karen, and get a better hobby.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 11:32 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
I sent in my ballot right after Indigenous People's Day and got an email yesterday that it had been counted. Yay California!
I haven't seen too many Harris signs in my neighborhood. Presumably we're so deep blue everyone thinks it goes without saying. Mostly for local candidates and measures.
It's really weird seeing people from outside our area simping so hard for TFG. But even here one of the neighbors responded to news of wildfire evacuations in Berkeley with worries about "thugs" looting the unattended properties. Take your valium, Karen, and get a better hobby.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 11:32 AM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Remember to go outside, turn around three times and spit and curse so we don't tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:40 AM on October 23 [8 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 11:40 AM on October 23 [8 favorites]
Vibe: very nervous and also angry that it is even this close. At this point I don’t think there’s anything that Harris can do to push her numbers higher. The fact that Trump is this close is simply a structural problem in this nation. Too many people want what he represents and nothing either side does is going to change that. The upshot is that I don’t really see TFG finding new voters. It’s all down to turnout, which worries me in itself not because the blue voters won’t turn out, because they will. What worries me is that 75 million voted for Trump in the last election. I think he gets fewer votes this time around but if there’s any blip in blue turnout, there’s a problem. I do think we’re not going to see the fence sitters like in 2016 (and even then Clinton won the popular vote handily.) Abortion is a lightning rod issue and I’ve heard a lot of previous apolitical women talking about that. They are not happy with the current state of things there. All that said, I’m more worried about unrest if Trump wins than if Harris does. We might see a few right wing terrorist incidents if Harris wins, but if Trump wins and starts doing exactly what he said he’s gonna do, there’s going to be a lot of unrest.
Basically, if I had to bet money, I would bet on Harris, but I really do not think it’s a sure thing at all. She’s going to win the popular vote by maybe more than Biden did. It’s all down to the Electoral College BS.
posted by azpenguin at 11:51 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
Basically, if I had to bet money, I would bet on Harris, but I really do not think it’s a sure thing at all. She’s going to win the popular vote by maybe more than Biden did. It’s all down to the Electoral College BS.
posted by azpenguin at 11:51 AM on October 23 [7 favorites]
Shout out to northern Virginians! I live in California now but grew up in Fairfax Station and went to West Springfield for high school and George Mason for college.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:58 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 11:58 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I don't really know what to think either... but what I do think we learned from 2016 and 2020 is that when Democrats are highly motivated and turn out, they win. In 2016 Democrats didn't turn out because many didn't like Clinton and assumed she'd win anyway. In 2020 many turned out and it was successful. I think the situation for the Democrats is at least as good as 2020, and maybe even better in terms of motivation.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:07 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:07 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
That said, my neighbor is planning to leave his house to the NRA (sad).
Is it a shotgun shack, by any chance?
posted by notoriety public at 12:09 PM on October 23 [11 favorites]
Is it a shotgun shack, by any chance?
posted by notoriety public at 12:09 PM on October 23 [11 favorites]
I live in central NC, regularly drive out of my blue bubble. coffeecat I've actually been telling people for weeks that the LACK of Trump/Maga bedazzled houses is giving me hope. My memory is that 2016/2020 it was absolutely psychotic the way houses looked like a bomb full of Trump flags and signs had gone off in someone's front yard. 6 out of 10 houses would be absolutely covered in MAGA crap, trucks flying flags behind them everywhere, a 30 minute stretch of highway would have 12 absolutely meme-d out Trump flavored billboards.
This year, far far fewer houses advertising themselves as MAGA strongholds. Sure, some houses have a yardsign or two, or a single flag flying by the door, but nothing like it was before. Trucks with flags are rare. The same highways have 1/3 as many Trump billboards, and even have 2 or 3 Harris billboards tossed in. A LOT of subtle billboards with un-branded messages like "Your body, your vote" or "Your vote is private, no one else will ever know".
All this has me praying it means the enthusiasm has faded to a degree that puts the state in play. The avalanche of physical mail from both sides seems to suggest the campaigns feel this way too.
I've voted here every election since 2012 and never waited more than 15 minutes, even on election day. This year word is that early voting has hour long waits. All that proves is a lot of early turnout in my blue bubble which doesn't mean anything definitive, but can't be bad.
Lastly - Trump has reversed his opinion on early/absentee voting recently. I think someone on his team figured out the hardship Hurricane Helene will put on some voters out in western NC. While that includes Asheville, Asheville is also a city more likely to stand up as much voting infrastructure and aid as fast as possible, while the rural parts of the state that went heavily for Trump in the past may be less likely to do so. Will it matter? Who knows. I know he's still campaigning in NC, which given his path to victory, I'm sure his team wishes this state was already locked up so he could be elsewhere.
posted by jermsplan at 12:11 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
This year, far far fewer houses advertising themselves as MAGA strongholds. Sure, some houses have a yardsign or two, or a single flag flying by the door, but nothing like it was before. Trucks with flags are rare. The same highways have 1/3 as many Trump billboards, and even have 2 or 3 Harris billboards tossed in. A LOT of subtle billboards with un-branded messages like "Your body, your vote" or "Your vote is private, no one else will ever know".
All this has me praying it means the enthusiasm has faded to a degree that puts the state in play. The avalanche of physical mail from both sides seems to suggest the campaigns feel this way too.
I've voted here every election since 2012 and never waited more than 15 minutes, even on election day. This year word is that early voting has hour long waits. All that proves is a lot of early turnout in my blue bubble which doesn't mean anything definitive, but can't be bad.
Lastly - Trump has reversed his opinion on early/absentee voting recently. I think someone on his team figured out the hardship Hurricane Helene will put on some voters out in western NC. While that includes Asheville, Asheville is also a city more likely to stand up as much voting infrastructure and aid as fast as possible, while the rural parts of the state that went heavily for Trump in the past may be less likely to do so. Will it matter? Who knows. I know he's still campaigning in NC, which given his path to victory, I'm sure his team wishes this state was already locked up so he could be elsewhere.
posted by jermsplan at 12:11 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
southern oregon and still very surrounded by Trump signs, including a few designed around the holding-fist-up-bloody-ear photo.
the neighbor who was flying an Israel flag took it down a bit ago and replaced it with another American flag (??? who flies two identical flags on the same pole ???)
posted by The demon that lives in the air at 12:15 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
the neighbor who was flying an Israel flag took it down a bit ago and replaced it with another American flag (??? who flies two identical flags on the same pole ???)
posted by The demon that lives in the air at 12:15 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
Here in West Michigan, Grand Rapids has a lot of H/W signs, but in the more affluent suburbs, and out in the small towns and in the country, the Trump signs are thicker than ever. Then again this is the stomping grounds of the DeVos family, the Acton Institute, and the Christian Reformed Church.
posted by JohnFromGR at 12:15 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
posted by JohnFromGR at 12:15 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
I know some MeFites are fans of electoral-vote.com and others think, you know, what is the point of making guesses based on the most recent poll in every state.
But for the sake of vibes, that site today has Harris at a narrow win without GA, AZ, NV, or MI. Curious how the hurricane aftermath is impacting the race in NC, but also I hate thinking instrumentally about someone else's catastrophe in that way.
posted by kensington314 at 12:23 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
But for the sake of vibes, that site today has Harris at a narrow win without GA, AZ, NV, or MI. Curious how the hurricane aftermath is impacting the race in NC, but also I hate thinking instrumentally about someone else's catastrophe in that way.
posted by kensington314 at 12:23 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
In 2016 Democrats didn't turn out because many didn't like Clinton and assumed she'd win anyway.
Friendly reminder that Clinton won the popular vote by FIVE FUCKING MILLION but we got shafted by the goddamn electoral college.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 12:34 PM on October 23 [22 favorites]
Friendly reminder that Clinton won the popular vote by FIVE FUCKING MILLION but we got shafted by the goddamn electoral college.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 12:34 PM on October 23 [22 favorites]
I live in one of those countries Trump probably considers a shithole, and I'm wondering whether the US will invade us / bomb us anytime soon if he's elected president
When he was in office I would not have been surprised to wake up some day and find out he'd randomly nuked some country.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:35 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
When he was in office I would not have been surprised to wake up some day and find out he'd randomly nuked some country.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:35 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
In a liberal enclave of Upstate New York, where some surrounding areas are more red.
I'm very nervous. I'd been watching the polls obsessively but stopped when it seemed Trump was catching up.
I'm remembering maybe 6 months ago when I went to a spa and soaking in the hot tub was this benign seeming middle-aged guy. He said something like, imagine us caring about the invasion of Ukraine when we have an invasion of our own going on at the Southern border.
I get really angry when I think of the anti-immigrant propaganda. Of course the lies about eating pets were extreme, but the big picture of what's been fed for years on Fox and other propaganda outlets is still out of touch with reality. People think undocumented immigrants are voting, are using up resources, there are panics about Venezuelan drug gangs in Colorado, etc. And that's all counter to the fact that immigrants of all kinds in general have lower crime rates and that though it's nice to have all laws followed, that our economy has a built in dependence on immigrants.
People will deny it, but their perception that there's an immigration problem is made easier by bigotry. It's easier for them to imagine that there's a problem because of their preconceptions and then they get a high from opposing this group that's just a faceless foreign horde to them.
I've seen a few posters for Cornell West or RFK Jr. around town, those could be from rat-fscking operations trying to siphon off votes from Harris. But there IS even on the left, a lot of misinformed opposition to sensible pandemic measures, a lot of conspiracy theorizing.
The fundamentals SHOULD be on our side, we've seen January 6, we've seen the demise of Roe vs. Wade, Trump getting older, more incoherent, no longer the New Thing, no economic disaster.
posted by Schmucko at 12:37 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
I'm very nervous. I'd been watching the polls obsessively but stopped when it seemed Trump was catching up.
I'm remembering maybe 6 months ago when I went to a spa and soaking in the hot tub was this benign seeming middle-aged guy. He said something like, imagine us caring about the invasion of Ukraine when we have an invasion of our own going on at the Southern border.
I get really angry when I think of the anti-immigrant propaganda. Of course the lies about eating pets were extreme, but the big picture of what's been fed for years on Fox and other propaganda outlets is still out of touch with reality. People think undocumented immigrants are voting, are using up resources, there are panics about Venezuelan drug gangs in Colorado, etc. And that's all counter to the fact that immigrants of all kinds in general have lower crime rates and that though it's nice to have all laws followed, that our economy has a built in dependence on immigrants.
People will deny it, but their perception that there's an immigration problem is made easier by bigotry. It's easier for them to imagine that there's a problem because of their preconceptions and then they get a high from opposing this group that's just a faceless foreign horde to them.
I've seen a few posters for Cornell West or RFK Jr. around town, those could be from rat-fscking operations trying to siphon off votes from Harris. But there IS even on the left, a lot of misinformed opposition to sensible pandemic measures, a lot of conspiracy theorizing.
The fundamentals SHOULD be on our side, we've seen January 6, we've seen the demise of Roe vs. Wade, Trump getting older, more incoherent, no longer the New Thing, no economic disaster.
posted by Schmucko at 12:37 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
When he was in office I would not have been surprised to wake up some day and find out he'd randomly nuked some country.
Trump more or less arbitrarily nuking a place is the plot instigator of the TV show Years and Years.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:38 PM on October 23
Trump more or less arbitrarily nuking a place is the plot instigator of the TV show Years and Years.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:38 PM on October 23
My existential dread lately is less thinking about a Trump win and more realizing how absolutely disgusting at least a third of Americans truly are. It's shameless hate through and through.
posted by archimago at 12:38 PM on October 23 [17 favorites]
posted by archimago at 12:38 PM on October 23 [17 favorites]
My anecdata from Blue Jersey is that there really seems to be a disjunct between people supporting Trump and people supporting other Republican candidates signwise. I've never seen such a high proportion of houses with signs for every Republican candidate except the one for president. Meanwhile, most signs for Trump stand alone. This holds even the red areas of the state, which certainly do exist.
I was gobsmacked, shellshocked, and stunned in 2016. If Trump wins this year, I think I'll be angry, scared, and disgusted. Hopefully I won't have to find out.
posted by mollweide at 12:57 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
I was gobsmacked, shellshocked, and stunned in 2016. If Trump wins this year, I think I'll be angry, scared, and disgusted. Hopefully I won't have to find out.
posted by mollweide at 12:57 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
> But for the sake of vibes, that site today has Harris at a narrow win without GA, AZ, NV, or MI
Uhhhh that's not how it works.
I'd you don't count those state, yes she has more votes. But the election will be decided by the outcome in those states.
In terms of vibes, seeing someone here get confused by that site is actually more scary to me than a lot of stuff I've seen.
posted by constraint at 12:58 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
Uhhhh that's not how it works.
I'd you don't count those state, yes she has more votes. But the election will be decided by the outcome in those states.
In terms of vibes, seeing someone here get confused by that site is actually more scary to me than a lot of stuff I've seen.
posted by constraint at 12:58 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
Expat living in Japan here. Among my fellow American friends living in Tokyo, we are all uniformly voting Democratic. One friend has been convinced for months that Trump will win in a landslide, to which we all laughed at him. Now, I'm not laughing. I don't think either candidate will win in a landslide, but it does seem like a coin toss at this point. Last night I had a very bad dream that Trump won, which I think is my way of coming to terms that yes, it could happen. In 2016 no one thought it would, which is why his win was so painful. This time I'm sort of consigned to it, and if Harris wins, I'll treat that as a pleasant surprise.
posted by zardoz at 1:12 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 1:12 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Uhhhh that's not how it works.
Yes, it is. The 271 next to her name means she wins the Electoral College without those states.
posted by axiom at 1:23 PM on October 23 [13 favorites]
Yes, it is. The 271 next to her name means she wins the Electoral College without those states.
posted by axiom at 1:23 PM on October 23 [13 favorites]
Reporting from Canada: I'm in Nova Scotia, having moved back (from Nashville) last May. My American partner and I sent in our absentee ballots a week or so ago. All the dual American-Canadian people I know have voted and are voting Dem. That might just be my bubble.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:26 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 1:26 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
I'm in the libbest city in the votingest state in the country. There's some kind of sign in every other yard even in non-election years. Of course most of them are Harris-Walz. Saw a particularly fascist one that said "vote the prosecutor, not the felon," and one suitably held by a giant skeleton.
Meanwhile the fight for divestment continues. But that doesn't have anything to do with the election I guess.
posted by jy4m at 1:31 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Meanwhile the fight for divestment continues. But that doesn't have anything to do with the election I guess.
posted by jy4m at 1:31 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Uhhhh that's not how it works.
I'd you don't count those state, yes she has more votes. But the election will be decided by the outcome in those states.
In terms of vibes, seeing someone here get confused by that site is actually more scary to me than a lot of stuff I've seen.
???
the current snapshot has her at 271 electoral votes without winning those states, if that's not how it works then I have been misapprehending how it works this entire time
as for local vibes, I've moved to a bluer part of the purple Phoenix East Valley since 2020 so it's hard to directly compare, but it does seem like Trump enthusiasm is down in the area in general
not many signs in my neighborhood but they're mostly Harris/Walz, I'm seeing more go up as perhaps they're emboldening each other? we don't have one because it still feels like putting a target on the house in case anyone decides to play civil war
neighborhood just north of us has a smattering of Trump signs to even things out, also someone's been putting up little signs pointing to a couple local Dem candidates' signs which say "COMMUNIST PARTY ENDORSED" (I laughed)
my mom lives in Waunakee, WI where Trump had a rally a couple weeks ago, she said other than a few streets being blocked off it was less well attended than their Fourth of July celebrations, and she categorically did not see the 30,000 or however many attendees he claimed were turned away at the door
posted by taquito sunrise at 1:33 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I'd you don't count those state, yes she has more votes. But the election will be decided by the outcome in those states.
In terms of vibes, seeing someone here get confused by that site is actually more scary to me than a lot of stuff I've seen.
???
the current snapshot has her at 271 electoral votes without winning those states, if that's not how it works then I have been misapprehending how it works this entire time
as for local vibes, I've moved to a bluer part of the purple Phoenix East Valley since 2020 so it's hard to directly compare, but it does seem like Trump enthusiasm is down in the area in general
not many signs in my neighborhood but they're mostly Harris/Walz, I'm seeing more go up as perhaps they're emboldening each other? we don't have one because it still feels like putting a target on the house in case anyone decides to play civil war
neighborhood just north of us has a smattering of Trump signs to even things out, also someone's been putting up little signs pointing to a couple local Dem candidates' signs which say "COMMUNIST PARTY ENDORSED" (I laughed)
my mom lives in Waunakee, WI where Trump had a rally a couple weeks ago, she said other than a few streets being blocked off it was less well attended than their Fourth of July celebrations, and she categorically did not see the 30,000 or however many attendees he claimed were turned away at the door
posted by taquito sunrise at 1:33 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
In 2016 Democrats didn't turn out because many didn't like Clinton and assumed she'd win anyway.
Friendly reminder that Clinton won the popular vote by FIVE FUCKING MILLION but we got shafted by the goddamn electoral college.
The point still stands. Biden got more votes.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:34 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
Friendly reminder that Clinton won the popular vote by FIVE FUCKING MILLION but we got shafted by the goddamn electoral college.
The point still stands. Biden got more votes.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:34 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
The 21 "tied" votes on that site appear to only be NV and MI.
posted by biogeo at 1:35 PM on October 23
posted by biogeo at 1:35 PM on October 23
But for the sake of vibes, that site today has Harris at a narrow win without GA, AZ, NV, or MI
The 271 next to her name means she wins the Electoral College without those states.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, it says she would still win without the 21 electoral votes that exist between Nevada and Wisconsin, the two states marked as ties. (Their combined 21 matches up with the tally shown next to the 271).
That 271 figure includes her winning all of the "Barely Dem" states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, just as it has Trump winning all of the "Barely GOP" states of Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia to get to the 246 shown for his total.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:36 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
The 271 next to her name means she wins the Electoral College without those states.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, it says she would still win without the 21 electoral votes that exist between Nevada and Wisconsin, the two states marked as ties. (Their combined 21 matches up with the tally shown next to the 271).
That 271 figure includes her winning all of the "Barely Dem" states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, just as it has Trump winning all of the "Barely GOP" states of Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia to get to the 246 shown for his total.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:36 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
When he was in office I would not have been surprised to wake up some day and find out he'd randomly nuked some country.
I seriously thought he might nuke California if we annoyed him enough.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:36 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
I seriously thought he might nuke California if we annoyed him enough.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:36 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Vibe check today seems to be everyone is catching on that this election is especially important. A normally non-partisan game writing blog published this excellent post today. So maybe all the right people are paying attention. God I hope so.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:39 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:39 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
When he was in office I would not have been surprised to wake up some day and find out he'd randomly nuked some country.
* Trump says he’d threaten to blow Iran ‘to smithereens’ over candidate threats
* Why so many top Republicans want to go to war in Mexico
* Trump suggested he would have bombed Moscow for invading Ukraine
Also:
Donald Trump is calling for mass deportations if he’s elected
Beyond the direct financial cost of mass deportation, we also estimated the impact on the U.S. economy. Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent.
Special Report: Mass Deportation
posted by Omon Ra at 1:43 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
* Trump says he’d threaten to blow Iran ‘to smithereens’ over candidate threats
* Why so many top Republicans want to go to war in Mexico
* Trump suggested he would have bombed Moscow for invading Ukraine
Also:
Donald Trump is calling for mass deportations if he’s elected
Beyond the direct financial cost of mass deportation, we also estimated the impact on the U.S. economy. Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent.
Special Report: Mass Deportation
posted by Omon Ra at 1:43 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
In terms of vibes, seeing someone here get confused by that site is actually more scary to me than a lot of stuff I've seen.
Maybe I'm confused by the site? But it shouldn't throw your vibes way off. I'm a guy looking at a website and posting about it on another website inbetween work meetings. As a Californian, even my actual vote doesn't even count, let alone my grasp of an elections website!
BUT
It is my understanding that 270 is the winning number, regardless of what swing states get you there. I've seen "Veep!"
posted by kensington314 at 1:45 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Maybe I'm confused by the site? But it shouldn't throw your vibes way off. I'm a guy looking at a website and posting about it on another website inbetween work meetings. As a Californian, even my actual vote doesn't even count, let alone my grasp of an elections website!
BUT
It is my understanding that 270 is the winning number, regardless of what swing states get you there. I've seen "Veep!"
posted by kensington314 at 1:45 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
You are correct.
posted by Captaintripps at 1:51 PM on October 23
posted by Captaintripps at 1:51 PM on October 23
I hear you, kensington 314. But, you do in fact seem to have it wrong, not about 271 the number but about the "Barely" states being already included in the totals. See above.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:51 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:51 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
I am very nervous because I am afraid that whatever happens there will be violence at my workplace.
posted by JanetLand at 1:52 PM on October 23 [10 favorites]
posted by JanetLand at 1:52 PM on October 23 [10 favorites]
oh, sure. but "barely" states are vibe states!
posted by kensington314 at 1:53 PM on October 23
posted by kensington314 at 1:53 PM on October 23
Oh, I kinda see what you're saying now. My bad, actually. You weren't including the red Barelies so I have it all wrong.
This is too much math. Abolish the electoral college. For justice, but also to spare us this math.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:54 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
This is too much math. Abolish the electoral college. For justice, but also to spare us this math.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:54 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Abolish the EC, abolish billionaires, and abolish the filibuster. Thus ends the electoral-vote.com derail that I started. Thanks and sorry.
posted by kensington314 at 2:07 PM on October 23 [9 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 2:07 PM on October 23 [9 favorites]
The site does all the math for you. 😆
posted by Captaintripps at 2:13 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by Captaintripps at 2:13 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
I said this in another thread where the same link was posted and now I am saying it here:
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
I was depressed by this even before I realized reason number three is "it's just a feeling". If James Carville thinks Harris is going to win that's an indicator that she's moved far enough right to lose people on the left and I don't believe it will pick up enough (any) right-wing votes to make up the difference (I could of course be wrong about this but if James Carville is allowed to make predictions based on "just a feeling" then I feel like I should be able to say whatever I want too).
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:21 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
I was depressed by this even before I realized reason number three is "it's just a feeling". If James Carville thinks Harris is going to win that's an indicator that she's moved far enough right to lose people on the left and I don't believe it will pick up enough (any) right-wing votes to make up the difference (I could of course be wrong about this but if James Carville is allowed to make predictions based on "just a feeling" then I feel like I should be able to say whatever I want too).
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:21 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
The "most likely to increase turnout" message is something along the lines of "who you vote for is private, but whether you vote is public,"
Yeah I found that creepy too and didn't use it. Feels to me like they did "engagement hacking with dark patterns" in postcard form.
posted by away for regrooving at 2:27 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Yeah I found that creepy too and didn't use it. Feels to me like they did "engagement hacking with dark patterns" in postcard form.
posted by away for regrooving at 2:27 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Yeah I found that creepy too and didn't use it.
It's like they thought as far as "well turnout is really important" and didn't put together that if the intention of pointing out that whether you vote is public information, and therefore the hypothetical stay-at-homer would instead go to the polls, it doesn't mean that that person would vote for Harris. Or for President at all.
posted by axiom at 2:35 PM on October 23
It's like they thought as far as "well turnout is really important" and didn't put together that if the intention of pointing out that whether you vote is public information, and therefore the hypothetical stay-at-homer would instead go to the polls, it doesn't mean that that person would vote for Harris. Or for President at all.
posted by axiom at 2:35 PM on October 23
I felt very negged by a text I got saying their records had me as an "occasional voter" and my neighbors were voting consistently, then cited my voting record as having missed 2019 and 2021, elections where there was nothing local for me to vote on
I'm sure they use this boilerplate because it's tested as effective but I honestly dunno if it would've worked on me or not?
posted by taquito sunrise at 2:46 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
I'm sure they use this boilerplate because it's tested as effective but I honestly dunno if it would've worked on me or not?
posted by taquito sunrise at 2:46 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
The most effective mailer I got was something to the effect, "Last presidential election, your state outcome was determined by [x] votes per neighborhood." And "x" was a relatively low number, like 24. Not clear how they defined "neighborhood" but it did inspire me to canvass more.
posted by coffeecat at 3:05 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 3:05 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
Any Texas MFs out there able to opine on Cruz/Allred ? To live in a world where Cruz goes down in flames ... would almost make living in this cursed timeline worth it. But dare we hope?
posted by kensington314 at 3:25 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
posted by kensington314 at 3:25 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
I know a lot of folks are feeling cautious optimism. Right now, right here, I worry we’re in the last days of American Democracy and I don’t quite know what to do with that fear, except feel it.
posted by heyitsgogi at 3:31 PM on October 23 [9 favorites]
posted by heyitsgogi at 3:31 PM on October 23 [9 favorites]
I work from home and am still very covid-cautious so I have no great way to pick up on vibes, but for what it's worth:
* I have been super suspicious of the polls for quite a while, and after posting links several times in MeFi threads to articles about why they're off, I actually put together the beginnings of a website (Problems With Polls; I posted about it in Projects) where I could put those links without repeating myself all the time on the site. (They're on the About this Site page.) I have not yet had a chance to add some of the latest stuff, including Weaponized Polling Is More Dangerous Than Ever.
* I think there are lots of other indicators that are more revealing than polling right now - like small donor donations, and volunteer engagement. Harris has the advantage in both of those.
* Along those lines, I've noticed that volunteering opportunities have been running out of slots - like, one of the big postcard groups had to pause giving out addresses for a few days because they gave out all the ones they had. (They got more, and were able to keep helping volunteers write postcards, but the response was bigger than they'd anticipated.) During the little bit of phone banking I've done, it seemed like I went very quickly from reaching lots of voicemail to getting lots of wrong numbers ... which suggests to me that I was hitting the dregs of the list, because other volunteers had already called the most reachable voters.
* Anecdotally, I know a guy in Arizona who, 10 years ago, was a very Republican-leaning independent who had contempt for me because I supported the "Socialist" Obama; he's now way more Democrat-leaning and is not shy about sharing those views with folks he knows.
* I think there is a very large independent contingent that is barely acknowledged in the national conversation, and I suspect a whole lot of them will be voting for Harris this year for a variety of reasons - January 6, Trump's undisguised contempt for veterans and Milley and Kelly speaking about it, maybe even climate change. (Note that independent is not the same as undecided, and famously independent Oprah speaking at the DNC may be an indicator.)
* I think abortion is going to make a real difference in votes and turnout.
* Personally, I'm trying to tune out the polls for two reasons - first, to keep from spiking my anxiety, but also because I need to keep myself hopeful but not complacent. Keeping myself in that sweet spot makes me able to do a little more volunteering. I'd like to think Harris will win handily, but/and if that happens, we need the strongest Dem congress possible, so no matter how she's doing, we need every single vote.
Thank you for this semi-free thread, coffeecat! I'm appreciating getting to read reports from everybody here, especially folks who have voted and/or volunteered.
posted by kristi at 3:44 PM on October 23 [16 favorites]
* I have been super suspicious of the polls for quite a while, and after posting links several times in MeFi threads to articles about why they're off, I actually put together the beginnings of a website (Problems With Polls; I posted about it in Projects) where I could put those links without repeating myself all the time on the site. (They're on the About this Site page.) I have not yet had a chance to add some of the latest stuff, including Weaponized Polling Is More Dangerous Than Ever.
* I think there are lots of other indicators that are more revealing than polling right now - like small donor donations, and volunteer engagement. Harris has the advantage in both of those.
* Along those lines, I've noticed that volunteering opportunities have been running out of slots - like, one of the big postcard groups had to pause giving out addresses for a few days because they gave out all the ones they had. (They got more, and were able to keep helping volunteers write postcards, but the response was bigger than they'd anticipated.) During the little bit of phone banking I've done, it seemed like I went very quickly from reaching lots of voicemail to getting lots of wrong numbers ... which suggests to me that I was hitting the dregs of the list, because other volunteers had already called the most reachable voters.
* Anecdotally, I know a guy in Arizona who, 10 years ago, was a very Republican-leaning independent who had contempt for me because I supported the "Socialist" Obama; he's now way more Democrat-leaning and is not shy about sharing those views with folks he knows.
* I think there is a very large independent contingent that is barely acknowledged in the national conversation, and I suspect a whole lot of them will be voting for Harris this year for a variety of reasons - January 6, Trump's undisguised contempt for veterans and Milley and Kelly speaking about it, maybe even climate change. (Note that independent is not the same as undecided, and famously independent Oprah speaking at the DNC may be an indicator.)
* I think abortion is going to make a real difference in votes and turnout.
* Personally, I'm trying to tune out the polls for two reasons - first, to keep from spiking my anxiety, but also because I need to keep myself hopeful but not complacent. Keeping myself in that sweet spot makes me able to do a little more volunteering. I'd like to think Harris will win handily, but/and if that happens, we need the strongest Dem congress possible, so no matter how she's doing, we need every single vote.
Thank you for this semi-free thread, coffeecat! I'm appreciating getting to read reports from everybody here, especially folks who have voted and/or volunteered.
posted by kristi at 3:44 PM on October 23 [16 favorites]
James Carville is allowed to make predictions based on "just a feeling"
They also posted an article by Nate Silver. whose "feeling" he had was that Trump was going to win. Same day/time, right next to each other, presumably because WE GOTTA HAVE BALANCE!
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:53 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
They also posted an article by Nate Silver. whose "feeling" he had was that Trump was going to win. Same day/time, right next to each other, presumably because WE GOTTA HAVE BALANCE!
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:53 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
in this house, we believe:
black lives matter
women's rights are human rights
no human is illegal
science is real
love is love
kindness is everything
posted by HearHere at 4:23 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
black lives matter
women's rights are human rights
no human is illegal
science is real
love is love
kindness is everything
posted by HearHere at 4:23 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
And no changes to zoning!
posted by Captaintripps at 4:27 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
posted by Captaintripps at 4:27 PM on October 23 [2 favorites]
Here is a real time count of people who have already voted by mail or early voting. You can look at categories like party affiliation, age, gender, and make some guesses. There are already over 23.5 million people who have voted, majority democrat registered, majority gender female. I would say those three statistics look pretty good for Harris. NBC vote tally real time
posted by effluvia at 4:43 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
posted by effluvia at 4:43 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Has anyone re-weighted them to be representative?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:02 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:02 PM on October 23 [1 favorite]
In further watch the game, not the stats news: In every state across the country, more people donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former president Donald Trump. In case it isn't obvious, this matters not only because of the amount of money raised, but because of the absolutely enormous enthusiasm gap it suggests. This improves my personal vibes immensely.
I input my parents' zip code, since they live in a conservative area of Riverside County in California, and while the amount raised was equal for Harris and Trump ($30k each), that represents 328 Harris donors vs. 208 Trump donors.
posted by yasaman at 5:06 PM on October 23 [12 favorites]
I input my parents' zip code, since they live in a conservative area of Riverside County in California, and while the amount raised was equal for Harris and Trump ($30k each), that represents 328 Harris donors vs. 208 Trump donors.
posted by yasaman at 5:06 PM on October 23 [12 favorites]
In suburban, northern Rhode island, there are more Trump signs than I am comfortable with. Plenty of Democrat lawn signs, which is heartening, though.
Our mayor is a modest, practical guy who has been amazingly effective at Getting Shit Done the last few years. He's revitalized the parks, repaved the streets, and gotten new businesses going. Some dude whose dad is kind of rich is running against him because of temper tantrum.
Literally, he explained in the local paper that he bought a house without a road, and wants the town to put in a road -- but the law says you can't build a house without also putting in a road because how the hell are fire trucks supposed to get there? It's the responsibility of the developer, but this guy's house-builder just promised him that the town would do it and walked -- and the dude is BIG MAD because no one in town up to the mayor will just PUT IN A WHOLE DAMN STREET FOR HIM BECAUSE HE BELIEVED HIS BUILDER.
Best of all, his motto is "Reunite Cumberland" -- but no one in town thinks there's any division except for Mister I Want A Road. He collected a coterie of other Please Don't Call Us Republicans (Because We Didn't Dare Run In That Primary And Associate Our Names With That), who are equally whiny and ineffective.
So the vibe up here among my people is kind of "we can't believe that this shitheel is even for real, but his signs are way more common than we can believe, so we're voting early and supporting the Real Ones as loudly as we can." Every time I drive by Road Tantrum Guy's signs, I give them the finger if my kids aren't in the car. (I was driving with just my knees the other day, when I realized that meant there were signs in front of the town's "mansions" on both sides of the street, which...wasn't great.)
posted by wenestvedt at 6:00 PM on October 23 [11 favorites]
Our mayor is a modest, practical guy who has been amazingly effective at Getting Shit Done the last few years. He's revitalized the parks, repaved the streets, and gotten new businesses going. Some dude whose dad is kind of rich is running against him because of temper tantrum.
Literally, he explained in the local paper that he bought a house without a road, and wants the town to put in a road -- but the law says you can't build a house without also putting in a road because how the hell are fire trucks supposed to get there? It's the responsibility of the developer, but this guy's house-builder just promised him that the town would do it and walked -- and the dude is BIG MAD because no one in town up to the mayor will just PUT IN A WHOLE DAMN STREET FOR HIM BECAUSE HE BELIEVED HIS BUILDER.
Best of all, his motto is "Reunite Cumberland" -- but no one in town thinks there's any division except for Mister I Want A Road. He collected a coterie of other Please Don't Call Us Republicans (Because We Didn't Dare Run In That Primary And Associate Our Names With That), who are equally whiny and ineffective.
So the vibe up here among my people is kind of "we can't believe that this shitheel is even for real, but his signs are way more common than we can believe, so we're voting early and supporting the Real Ones as loudly as we can." Every time I drive by Road Tantrum Guy's signs, I give them the finger if my kids aren't in the car. (I was driving with just my knees the other day, when I realized that meant there were signs in front of the town's "mansions" on both sides of the street, which...wasn't great.)
posted by wenestvedt at 6:00 PM on October 23 [11 favorites]
I early voted here in Dane County, Wisconsin, today. I only had to wait a couple minutes, but there was a steady flow of people coming through the door. Folks seemed determined more than enthusiastic, but they were there. I'm cautiously optimistic about Wisconsin, and it doesn't hurt that Hovde is running a really off-putting campaign. I don't know what I'll do on election day, worry, I guess.
posted by wintermind at 6:01 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
posted by wintermind at 6:01 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
> I think abortion is going to make a real difference in votes and turnout.
can i get a vibe check? i want to believe...
The Religious Vote Is Waning—And That Could Spell Trouble for Trump - "As millions of Christians plan to sit out the election, church leaders face tough choices about how to inspire their congregations without violating the law."
posted by kliuless at 7:34 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
can i get a vibe check? i want to believe...
The Religious Vote Is Waning—And That Could Spell Trouble for Trump - "As millions of Christians plan to sit out the election, church leaders face tough choices about how to inspire their congregations without violating the law."
There was some indication that this drop-off in enthusiasm from Trump's faithful fans was possible. The former president has been trying to distance himself from his past anti-abortion statements and policies (to align better with the majority of Americans), but 41 percent of Christians who regularly attend church services told surveyors that abortion was an issue that most significantly influenced who they would vote for (and a majority of whom oppose abortion). In August, Trump faced backlash after initially opposing Florida's six-week abortion ban, prompting him to later support it. A few weeks later, he posted "My Administration will be great for women and their reproductive rights" on Truth Social. Days later, Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, was asked by NBC's Kristen Welker, "Can you commit…that if you and Donald Trump are elected that you will not impose a federal ban on abortion?" Vance answered, "I can absolutely commit that."is technofascists' abortion indifference losing them christofascists' votes?
This attempt to moderate was a bridge too far for some prominent anti-abortion activists, including Lila Rose, the founder and president of Live Action, a nonprofit that claims "the largest digital footprint for the global pro-life movement." Rose is also a Catholic who advocates banning abortion with no exceptions, opposes the use of in vitro fertilization (another disagreement with Trump), is against birth control, and even says that women who get abortions should receive "criminal penalties." She retweeted Vance's comments on a federal abortion ban saying, "If you don't stand for pro-life principles, you don't get pro-life votes."
posted by kliuless at 7:34 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
Eastern Oregon here... I did see many of the larger property owners here (farmers) put up Trump/Vance signs; three months ago none of them were there. Likely somebody made some phone calls. I get around the area and have only seen one Harris/Walz sign in Hermiston. Major intersections have several signs, all large, many for the statewide races, all those for repubs. One of the legislators who couldn't run anymore because he played sick too many times is running for Secretary of State; I am sure he is rubbing his hands together with glee thinking he will be able to "reform" Oregon's election system. He hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell with his name recognition. Another, a straight up bully when he was in the legislature (Boquist), is running for Treasurer. He also does not have a snowball's chance. Also excellent name recognition (infamy!).
Whats interesting is what I am not seeing. No idjits with stupid giant flags attached to their stupid giant pickups. None of those silly yellow flags about not being "tread" on. Very few houses in town with the banners and stuff. Most signs are for local races. Could be a good indicator. Even John Day is pretty mellow, and that is saying something.
@ mygothlaundry: I used to live on the west side; in Columbia and Clatsop and Tillamook counties, and the rednecks have always been obnoxious with their support of Trump. Myself I think they are trying to compensate for something... make themselves look larger than they really are, because very seldom do they actually win over there. '16 was one of those years. It can be a very sad place to be around election time. They always act like they are going to have civil war and the only ones who ever truly come close to giving it to them is the county sheriff. Of course, it helps to remember that those places had Klaverns back in the 1920s, which affected the culture adversely. My present county (Morrow) oddly did not.
I was up in the Tri Cities last week and that was kind of depressing, but that is Semi Bird country. Those people are way crazy for Trump. They have a fetish for putting Trump flags on the large flagpole outside their house right under the American flag. Whole neighborhoods of those people. Ewwww. So glad I don't live there; I don't think there is enough money in the world to make that palatable to me.
I will be so glad to have this election over with! I dearly hope the Trumpers and their hangers on get the shellacking they richly deserve.
posted by cybrcamper at 7:40 PM on October 23 [8 favorites]
Whats interesting is what I am not seeing. No idjits with stupid giant flags attached to their stupid giant pickups. None of those silly yellow flags about not being "tread" on. Very few houses in town with the banners and stuff. Most signs are for local races. Could be a good indicator. Even John Day is pretty mellow, and that is saying something.
@ mygothlaundry: I used to live on the west side; in Columbia and Clatsop and Tillamook counties, and the rednecks have always been obnoxious with their support of Trump. Myself I think they are trying to compensate for something... make themselves look larger than they really are, because very seldom do they actually win over there. '16 was one of those years. It can be a very sad place to be around election time. They always act like they are going to have civil war and the only ones who ever truly come close to giving it to them is the county sheriff. Of course, it helps to remember that those places had Klaverns back in the 1920s, which affected the culture adversely. My present county (Morrow) oddly did not.
I was up in the Tri Cities last week and that was kind of depressing, but that is Semi Bird country. Those people are way crazy for Trump. They have a fetish for putting Trump flags on the large flagpole outside their house right under the American flag. Whole neighborhoods of those people. Ewwww. So glad I don't live there; I don't think there is enough money in the world to make that palatable to me.
I will be so glad to have this election over with! I dearly hope the Trumpers and their hangers on get the shellacking they richly deserve.
posted by cybrcamper at 7:40 PM on October 23 [8 favorites]
Texas vibes - I drove half an hour out of town a couple weeks ago and Ted Cruz signs are up out there. I've seen one in my bubble so far. Our population is high, and turnout is decent, and everyone is worried.
It's been a long time since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas so I don't dare to hope. But it is unusual to see a presidential candidate here right before the election. Harris probably isn't just doing that to be cute, so Allred may have a real chance. (She's doing an event in Houston - Harris County.)
posted by mersen at 8:00 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
It's been a long time since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas so I don't dare to hope. But it is unusual to see a presidential candidate here right before the election. Harris probably isn't just doing that to be cute, so Allred may have a real chance. (She's doing an event in Houston - Harris County.)
posted by mersen at 8:00 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
Central California Coast, the vibes are bad, of the 'Dems in Disarray' variety. There is an ongoing civil war between NIMBY and YIMBY dems; the new Chair of the Monterey Dems had the old chair arrested by the Seaside Police (he is the mayor of Seaside); there are big scandals around San Jose City Councilman Omar Torres and Hollister Councilman Rick Perez.
If Kamala wins, it won't be because of any help from Monterey and San Benito Dems. Infighting remains the favorite sport of the political left, no matter what the stakes are. Very strong 'last days of Barcelona in 1939' vibes.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 8:04 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
If Kamala wins, it won't be because of any help from Monterey and San Benito Dems. Infighting remains the favorite sport of the political left, no matter what the stakes are. Very strong 'last days of Barcelona in 1939' vibes.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 8:04 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
I’m not in a swing state, so I’m seeing remarkably little political advertising, but I saw in other threads that inflation is a big issue. Is it being pointed out that each American paid about $500 this year servicing the $7+trillion that Trump added to the national debt?
posted by puffinaria at 8:36 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
posted by puffinaria at 8:36 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
James Carville is allowed to make predictions based on "just a feeling"
They also posted an article by Nate Silver. whose "feeling" he had was that Trump was going to win.
[LetThemFight.gif]
posted by jonp72 at 9:31 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
They also posted an article by Nate Silver. whose "feeling" he had was that Trump was going to win.
[LetThemFight.gif]
posted by jonp72 at 9:31 PM on October 23 [3 favorites]
No trump signs out here, but did run across a few republican signs against Harris.
Small: SHEEP FOR HARRIS
Big: WAKE UP
Tiny: Vote GOP
My neighbor and I both had the same reaction: "I like sheep. Of course they're voting for Harris...oh, wait, this is supposed to be 'clever'".
Anyway, they're all gone already (these were pitched in public right-of-way in middle of nowhere). I didn't take them, no reason to risk brain worms.
Voted today. I raised all our taxes and otherwise voted a straight D ticket.
Openly nazi neighbor has no trump signs this year, and now his only sign is for a write-in R candidate for a local office...guess the actual R is too woke or something.
posted by maxwelton at 9:53 PM on October 23 [6 favorites]
Small: SHEEP FOR HARRIS
Big: WAKE UP
Tiny: Vote GOP
My neighbor and I both had the same reaction: "I like sheep. Of course they're voting for Harris...oh, wait, this is supposed to be 'clever'".
Anyway, they're all gone already (these were pitched in public right-of-way in middle of nowhere). I didn't take them, no reason to risk brain worms.
Voted today. I raised all our taxes and otherwise voted a straight D ticket.
Openly nazi neighbor has no trump signs this year, and now his only sign is for a write-in R candidate for a local office...guess the actual R is too woke or something.
posted by maxwelton at 9:53 PM on October 23 [6 favorites]
Drove to Sacramento today -- saw 2 Trump signs, 1 Trump flag, and 1 Trump painted truck, all on the same plot of land off the interstate. Trump truck had already been graffiti bombed with a "Free Palestine" message.
posted by gingerbeer at 10:07 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
posted by gingerbeer at 10:07 PM on October 23 [4 favorites]
I'm also worried about local elections. Tech-funded conservatives are pushing some really crappy initiatives in San Francisco, including one that would eliminate the commission I sit on. The Mayor's race has very wealthy people running or promoting yet more conservative, law and order candidates, who will do real damage to the people and communities I care about. There's so much money and misinformation sloshing around here. It's very disheartening.
posted by gingerbeer at 10:21 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
posted by gingerbeer at 10:21 PM on October 23 [5 favorites]
Texas vibes: It keeps getting closer every cycle, and the suburbs keep getting bluer. People seem to be genuinely, actually pissed at Ted Cruz for fucking off to Cancun during the 2021 freeze. And rather than seem likable or promise... anything, Cruz's ad spend has gone 100% fuck it all in on transphobia backed by ominous music. (Or they were all in - based on my recent text messages he's pivoted to accusing Allred of being anti-fracking. That should resonate.)
But we're worried about Texas inertia, and the shamelessly rat-fucking state government, and the much touted, semi-mythical Republican gains with low-information Latino voters. And Elon Musk is going to start personally intervening in our state and local politics, which, god that's tiring. We're all looking for portents down here. I was out registering voters with a elderly ex-reporter for the old San Antonio Light, and she was shamelessly grilling our teenage registrees. Are your friends voting? Are they enthusiastic? How much of that enthusiasm is because of Taylor Swift? You kids like the Tay-Tay, right?
posted by ormondsacker at 11:46 PM on October 23 [8 favorites]
But we're worried about Texas inertia, and the shamelessly rat-fucking state government, and the much touted, semi-mythical Republican gains with low-information Latino voters. And Elon Musk is going to start personally intervening in our state and local politics, which, god that's tiring. We're all looking for portents down here. I was out registering voters with a elderly ex-reporter for the old San Antonio Light, and she was shamelessly grilling our teenage registrees. Are your friends voting? Are they enthusiastic? How much of that enthusiasm is because of Taylor Swift? You kids like the Tay-Tay, right?
posted by ormondsacker at 11:46 PM on October 23 [8 favorites]
Just south of Portland OR, and the only house I've seen with a Trump sign went up for sale a few months ago. Everyone at work (a middle school) is vocally and angrily against Trump, offering spontaneous comments about the same. (Admittedly, I am not shy about my positions and routinely wear my Pride and Protect Trans Kids shirts to work.)
Personally, however, I'm terrified. I was a nervous wreck all through 2015-2016 and tried to keep calm because everyone was so confident Hillary would win and now it's constantly being called a close race and a nailbiter and I'm just flabbergasted at *how* it could *possibly* be *this close* after we've *seen how he governs*, which is to say he's fucking terrible at it and even the people who wanted him to do the awful things didn't get anything they wanted because of how shit he is and how little he gives a fuck what anyone else wants. I was astounded it was ever in question ten years ago, honestly, but now we all have actual lived experience and *no one liked it*.
And it's *still* close. Fucking what the fucking fuck.
posted by Scattercat at 1:26 AM on October 24 [8 favorites]
Personally, however, I'm terrified. I was a nervous wreck all through 2015-2016 and tried to keep calm because everyone was so confident Hillary would win and now it's constantly being called a close race and a nailbiter and I'm just flabbergasted at *how* it could *possibly* be *this close* after we've *seen how he governs*, which is to say he's fucking terrible at it and even the people who wanted him to do the awful things didn't get anything they wanted because of how shit he is and how little he gives a fuck what anyone else wants. I was astounded it was ever in question ten years ago, honestly, but now we all have actual lived experience and *no one liked it*.
And it's *still* close. Fucking what the fucking fuck.
posted by Scattercat at 1:26 AM on October 24 [8 favorites]
A positive vibe is that whenever some asshole with a swastika flag shows up on an overpass, the r/rhodeisland subreddit lights up angrily -- and when you own your local slice of Reddit, that's got to be good.
posted by wenestvedt at 3:51 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
posted by wenestvedt at 3:51 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
MetaFilter: We're all looking for portents down here
posted by wenestvedt at 3:52 AM on October 24 [3 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 3:52 AM on October 24 [3 favorites]
Infighting remains the favorite sport of the political left
Minor quibble: the groups referred to are part of the political center.
posted by eviemath at 4:29 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
Minor quibble: the groups referred to are part of the political center.
posted by eviemath at 4:29 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
Northern Virginia suburbs checking in, though I know there’s been a few of us. My particular area is very blue but not exclusively, though nowadays we have all Democratic representation at all levels. (My precinct actually went for Trump in 2020 and my district went for Biden but only like 54%. By comparison, the district I grew up in about 20 minutes closer to DC went >80% for Biden in 2020.) My observation is that most houses with signs have a Harris/Walz sign, but the houses with Trump signs try to make up for sign area by having either tons of signs or gigantic signs. Most but not all Trump signs are on the bigger houses and McMansions, which isn’t too surprising.
On a bigger road near my house there’s a neighborhood where the backs of the properties are up against the road. One of those houses put up the first Trump sign in the neighborhood, actually on the seal directly adjacent to the sidewalk; it was stolen within a day or two. Then they put a much larger sign on stakes behind their wall - that one was covered with pink spray paint. They almost immediately replaced it, which makes me think they figured it would happen and had a replacement sign in reserve.
Another house around the corner from there has probably a dozen different signs for Trump and other Republican candidates, one of which is pretty big. The signs were in their garage for a while then started moving out onto the lawn as the election got closer. The house across the street has a HUGE (gotta be 6’x10’ at least) sign that says “GIANT SIGNS ARE WEIRD”.
We voted early last weekend at one of the more central locations and while it was busy there wasn’t really a line and they were moving people through at a good clip. It did seem like there were a decent number of Republicans voting early, judging by who was holding what sample ballot. At the time that was a little dismaying but on reflection I think it probably had more to do with the day and time we voted.
Overall, I’m pretty anxious. I definitely worry about political violence, which is an unfortunate part of the reason we thought it would be prudent to vote early. Also, I work for the government in a position that could be reclassified in the new Schedule F if Project 2025 gets rammed through so aside from being worried about the general state of things I also have my livelihood to be concerned about, which is fun. I have a little hope that things will turn out alright, though.
posted by malthas at 4:36 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
On a bigger road near my house there’s a neighborhood where the backs of the properties are up against the road. One of those houses put up the first Trump sign in the neighborhood, actually on the seal directly adjacent to the sidewalk; it was stolen within a day or two. Then they put a much larger sign on stakes behind their wall - that one was covered with pink spray paint. They almost immediately replaced it, which makes me think they figured it would happen and had a replacement sign in reserve.
Another house around the corner from there has probably a dozen different signs for Trump and other Republican candidates, one of which is pretty big. The signs were in their garage for a while then started moving out onto the lawn as the election got closer. The house across the street has a HUGE (gotta be 6’x10’ at least) sign that says “GIANT SIGNS ARE WEIRD”.
We voted early last weekend at one of the more central locations and while it was busy there wasn’t really a line and they were moving people through at a good clip. It did seem like there were a decent number of Republicans voting early, judging by who was holding what sample ballot. At the time that was a little dismaying but on reflection I think it probably had more to do with the day and time we voted.
Overall, I’m pretty anxious. I definitely worry about political violence, which is an unfortunate part of the reason we thought it would be prudent to vote early. Also, I work for the government in a position that could be reclassified in the new Schedule F if Project 2025 gets rammed through so aside from being worried about the general state of things I also have my livelihood to be concerned about, which is fun. I have a little hope that things will turn out alright, though.
posted by malthas at 4:36 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
There were local and provincial elections across Canada this past week. We also have a not quite as close but impending potentially disastrous federal election coming up (imagine a Quebecois Ted Cruz-JD Vance amalgam as head of the federal Conservative Party), but one bright spot when election results came out on Monday was the resounding repudiation of the transphobic premier of New Brunswick.
New Brunswick notifies Blaine Higgs’ parents that his name changing to “ex-premier Blaine Higgs” (Beaverton)
posted by eviemath at 4:38 AM on October 24 [6 favorites]
New Brunswick notifies Blaine Higgs’ parents that his name changing to “ex-premier Blaine Higgs” (Beaverton)
posted by eviemath at 4:38 AM on October 24 [6 favorites]
Checking in from the ridiculously diverse eastern suburbs of Atlanta. So many calls, texts, postcards, and signs. I drive by an early voting site on my way to work and the signs are completely overwhelming. Harris is having a rally 2 miles from my house today in the most diverse little town in the US. Pres Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Spike Lee, etc. We have RSVPed, but we'll see if we actually make it over there and in before they close the gates. In our little majority Black and immigrant town, basically no Trump signs. In the McMansion burbs, so many Trump signs. Among my students, a mix of Harris passion and complete disaffection and both sidserism. I have no idea what's about to happen.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:55 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 4:55 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
here in s w michigan, m-40 between allegan and paw paw was a fair parade of trump stickers - paw itself had some harris signs - a lot of people are putting up signs for local candidates and passing over the trump/harris signs
the red arrow hwy between paw paw and kalamazoo, the back roads between kalamazoo and battle creek, down to three rivers and s bend all seemed to have less trump signs than in past years - i'm getting the impression that enthusiasm for trump has worn thin
here in kalamazoo, the local party has been posting signs saying "kamalazoo"
my favorite campaign sign is just a block away - "presidents are temporary - wu-tang is forever"
just the other day at salvation army i saw a bumper sticker with a picture of ted cruz that said "this man ate my son" - i don't know what that's doing up here in michigan - texans also need to know the most important issue - did he eat this person's son with or without beans?
posted by pyramid termite at 5:00 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
the red arrow hwy between paw paw and kalamazoo, the back roads between kalamazoo and battle creek, down to three rivers and s bend all seemed to have less trump signs than in past years - i'm getting the impression that enthusiasm for trump has worn thin
here in kalamazoo, the local party has been posting signs saying "kamalazoo"
my favorite campaign sign is just a block away - "presidents are temporary - wu-tang is forever"
just the other day at salvation army i saw a bumper sticker with a picture of ted cruz that said "this man ate my son" - i don't know what that's doing up here in michigan - texans also need to know the most important issue - did he eat this person's son with or without beans?
posted by pyramid termite at 5:00 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
A couple of weekends ago we went up to Lake George in Upstate New York, taking mainly backroads up. Things were pretty different from what I recall from the previous two election cycles. There were many more Harris signs out than I recall seeing for Biden and Clinton. It was also interesting to see how different each small towns were, it was a back and forth between the sides, where previously it was a surprise to see Biden/Clinton signage.
Around Lake George it was overwhelmingly conservative leaning, as usual. The interesting thing we noticed though, is that while there was a considerable number of Trump signage out, there were many more that had signs up for the local super conservative candidates or Thin Blue Line stuff but no Trump signage to be seen. Whether they are just embarrassed to show support, I don't know. But it definitely is starkly different from previous cycles, when it was Trump everywhere, even in between elections.
All around, there are a lot less coal rolling trucks with Trump flags this year, both upstate and in Long Island.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:32 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
Around Lake George it was overwhelmingly conservative leaning, as usual. The interesting thing we noticed though, is that while there was a considerable number of Trump signage out, there were many more that had signs up for the local super conservative candidates or Thin Blue Line stuff but no Trump signage to be seen. Whether they are just embarrassed to show support, I don't know. But it definitely is starkly different from previous cycles, when it was Trump everywhere, even in between elections.
All around, there are a lot less coal rolling trucks with Trump flags this year, both upstate and in Long Island.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:32 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
On the other hand, I came across this study this morning, which if a correct reading of American's support for concentration camps leaves me completely stunned:
Americans split on idea of putting immigrants in militarized "camps" (Axios)
By the numbers: 50% of Americans surveyed oppose setting up encampments for undocumented immigrants, while 47% favor the idea, according to the annual survey from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), in partnership with the Brookings Institution.
Americans split on idea of putting immigrants in militarized "camps" (Axios)
By the numbers: 50% of Americans surveyed oppose setting up encampments for undocumented immigrants, while 47% favor the idea, according to the annual survey from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), in partnership with the Brookings Institution.
- Nearly 79% of Republicans favor putting undocumented immigrants in encampments, compared with 47% of independents and 22% of Democrats.
- The vast majority of Americans who most trust far-right news (91%) or Fox News (82%) favor militarized encampments for undocumented immigrants, compared with 44% of Americans who do not watch TV news.
Vibes! I live in Greater Cambervilletonford, Massachusetts, which is known for being liberal (poly relationships officially recognized and all that). But there are several Trump signs in my neighborhood, and a friend reports that the bartender at his local bar says everyone there is a Trump fan but him. On the other hand, the state Republican party couldn't get it together to run anyone in opposition to our federal representative, nevermind our state representatives. The only Republican candidates in our region of the state are running against Warren and for Registrar of Deeds (Billy Tauro *pfah*). So: I think that the Republican party in my state is disorganized, I think Harris will win the state but I think people will be surprised at how many votes Trump gets.
I am also phone banking for Sherrod Brown in Ohio. They tell us our lists are pre-screened for supporters. If that is true, Brown is screwed. If they're just telling us that to make us go in with enthusiasm, that's different. I would say I get about 58% Democrats to 37% Republicans out of the people I talk to. (I would say 75% of my outreach winds up being either voicemail or hangups, so the people I reach are a small percentage of who I call.) Some of the campaigning for Brown has been trying to get Trump voters to also vote for Brown (thus party-splitting), but based on my conversations that is not happening. Many of the Democrats I speak to are fired up, angry and getting groups of people to vote with them. Some of the people I call say, "I'm Trump," which I find very interesting, because I have never heard a Harris voter say, "I'm Kamala" or "I'm Harris." About 5% say they aren't voting, and those people are always extremely angry. They either say "they're both crooks!" (which is interesting, because I never mention Harris or Trump during phone banking) or "I'm so mad about how the government handled COVID that I'm never voting again."
The other vibe thing, though: when I talk to people who are voting Republican, many of them are terrified about the idea of a Harris presidency. Like, they sound as scared as many of the people here are about a Trump presidency. Many people believe Trump voters are all about bigotry, but based on my conversations, I think some of these people really DO believe that THEY are going to get rounded up under a Harris administration, or that things will get so expensive that they will go from "barely hanging on" to "not hanging on at all."
The other other vibe thing: I have talked to more than one Democrat who says people are idiots for thinking the economy is bad because their 401K is doing so well. They disparage people who are struggling and say "The economy is great. People are just complaining because they don't know how to save money and they're blowing their money on discretionary items." (I have heard the words "discretionary items" more than once.) Hoo boy, it is very hard for me to bite my tongue and smile when I hear that.
And the other other OTHER vibe thing: I wish the Harris campaign had stuck with the "weird and weak" messaging about Trump rather than switching to "he's dangerous." There is a group of people who just want someone strong. Calling Trump weird and weak worked, calling him dangerous is actually a selling point. They don't hear why he's dangerous, they just hear that he intimidates people and figure he's doing something right. I think "weird and weak" was much more effective.
posted by rednikki at 7:35 AM on October 24 [19 favorites]
I am also phone banking for Sherrod Brown in Ohio. They tell us our lists are pre-screened for supporters. If that is true, Brown is screwed. If they're just telling us that to make us go in with enthusiasm, that's different. I would say I get about 58% Democrats to 37% Republicans out of the people I talk to. (I would say 75% of my outreach winds up being either voicemail or hangups, so the people I reach are a small percentage of who I call.) Some of the campaigning for Brown has been trying to get Trump voters to also vote for Brown (thus party-splitting), but based on my conversations that is not happening. Many of the Democrats I speak to are fired up, angry and getting groups of people to vote with them. Some of the people I call say, "I'm Trump," which I find very interesting, because I have never heard a Harris voter say, "I'm Kamala" or "I'm Harris." About 5% say they aren't voting, and those people are always extremely angry. They either say "they're both crooks!" (which is interesting, because I never mention Harris or Trump during phone banking) or "I'm so mad about how the government handled COVID that I'm never voting again."
The other vibe thing, though: when I talk to people who are voting Republican, many of them are terrified about the idea of a Harris presidency. Like, they sound as scared as many of the people here are about a Trump presidency. Many people believe Trump voters are all about bigotry, but based on my conversations, I think some of these people really DO believe that THEY are going to get rounded up under a Harris administration, or that things will get so expensive that they will go from "barely hanging on" to "not hanging on at all."
The other other vibe thing: I have talked to more than one Democrat who says people are idiots for thinking the economy is bad because their 401K is doing so well. They disparage people who are struggling and say "The economy is great. People are just complaining because they don't know how to save money and they're blowing their money on discretionary items." (I have heard the words "discretionary items" more than once.) Hoo boy, it is very hard for me to bite my tongue and smile when I hear that.
And the other other OTHER vibe thing: I wish the Harris campaign had stuck with the "weird and weak" messaging about Trump rather than switching to "he's dangerous." There is a group of people who just want someone strong. Calling Trump weird and weak worked, calling him dangerous is actually a selling point. They don't hear why he's dangerous, they just hear that he intimidates people and figure he's doing something right. I think "weird and weak" was much more effective.
posted by rednikki at 7:35 AM on October 24 [19 favorites]
But it is unusual to see a presidential candidate here right before the election. Harris probably isn't just doing that to be cute
With the US's dramatic population changes, if Florida and TX don't become battleground states, with the apportionment in 2030 (next census) it's basically over for the Democrats. The states they easily carry are projected to lose 8-10 seats, while ones Republicans generally carry are projected to gain 8-10 seats. That generally Democratic state political leadership doesn't notice or do anything about this is just galling.
So Harris has to spend a bunch of time campaigning in TX and FL, even if she can't currently win them, because she's got to build bases there for the next elections.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:36 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
With the US's dramatic population changes, if Florida and TX don't become battleground states, with the apportionment in 2030 (next census) it's basically over for the Democrats. The states they easily carry are projected to lose 8-10 seats, while ones Republicans generally carry are projected to gain 8-10 seats. That generally Democratic state political leadership doesn't notice or do anything about this is just galling.
So Harris has to spend a bunch of time campaigning in TX and FL, even if she can't currently win them, because she's got to build bases there for the next elections.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:36 AM on October 24 [5 favorites]
pyramid termite: my favorite campaign sign is just a block away - "presidents are temporary - wu-tang is forever"
There's one of those around the corner from me, too.
The homeowner is a contractor with a giant, white pickup truck, who I might safely presume to be a little trumpy; I suspect his 20-ish kid put it up. But boy! would my mind be blown if it was the dad!
posted by wenestvedt at 8:33 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
There's one of those around the corner from me, too.
The homeowner is a contractor with a giant, white pickup truck, who I might safely presume to be a little trumpy; I suspect his 20-ish kid put it up. But boy! would my mind be blown if it was the dad!
posted by wenestvedt at 8:33 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
Oh, one last vibe thing: most of the Dems I talk to while phone banking are planning to vote on Election Day. I get a lot of Republicans who have already voted. Not sure the "blue shift" will be as much of a thing this year.
posted by rednikki at 9:08 AM on October 24 [3 favorites]
posted by rednikki at 9:08 AM on October 24 [3 favorites]
I haven't really seen too many signs for the big races, but it's LA so we pretty much know how those are going to go. I have seen a lot of signs for local candidates though. I did drive down to Orange County last week to meet an old family friend and saw a parade of Trump cars driving past while we were getting coffee. So Orange County is still Orange County. But in LA things are good.
posted by downtohisturtles at 9:14 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 9:14 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
Update: I just got back from voting. Smallish crowd today, but was told it was lined up out the door yesterday from 10:00 to 1:00. Of course, a lot of older voters, so maybe not Harris/Walz supporters.
posted by wittgenstein at 9:32 AM on October 24
posted by wittgenstein at 9:32 AM on October 24
Hey that's ageist! (Only kind of kidding)
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:38 AM on October 24
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:38 AM on October 24
I'm living outside the US for this election (alas it is not permanent for reasons outside my control), and it's been kind of weird but good to not deal with the information onslaught.
Went back to visit our parents last week and was surprised to see a not-insignificant amount of Trump signs in my MIL's neighborhood in Bloomington, IL. The same neighborhood seemed (at least to me) to have a ton of closed businesses and just kind of had a rust belt vibe. I don't know what to make of that, but it was pretty depressing.
Also, this is probably an unpopular opinion, but goddamn the ads are too much. The entire week we were back it was alternating campaign ads and drug ads on TV, over and over and over. Could we just restrict campaigning to like 30 days before the election, like they do here in Europe? It's great Harris raised so much, but that in itself is part of the problem with US politics. It's a rich person's club, both Republicans and Democrats, and the older I get the more disgusted I am with the whole system.
posted by photo guy at 9:39 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
Went back to visit our parents last week and was surprised to see a not-insignificant amount of Trump signs in my MIL's neighborhood in Bloomington, IL. The same neighborhood seemed (at least to me) to have a ton of closed businesses and just kind of had a rust belt vibe. I don't know what to make of that, but it was pretty depressing.
Also, this is probably an unpopular opinion, but goddamn the ads are too much. The entire week we were back it was alternating campaign ads and drug ads on TV, over and over and over. Could we just restrict campaigning to like 30 days before the election, like they do here in Europe? It's great Harris raised so much, but that in itself is part of the problem with US politics. It's a rich person's club, both Republicans and Democrats, and the older I get the more disgusted I am with the whole system.
posted by photo guy at 9:39 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
Oh and before anyone asks, yes we did vote by mail! Requested the ballot as soon as Virginia sent them out and dropped off the next day at the embassy. Doing what we can!
posted by photo guy at 9:40 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
posted by photo guy at 9:40 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
One thing I’m thinking about is that COVID combined with lack of a streamlined absentee ballot process depressed at least some of the Dem vote in 2020; at the very least, I knew people in WI who requested ballots prior to the deadline and did not receive them until days after the election. Some of them did not go to the polls because of their personal health risks.
Last year Dems turned out for a woman who put abortion front and center, who won to the tune of 11 percentage points. She swept several GOP stronghold counties as well (one of which I help run an LGBT group in).
That said I still see tons of Trump signs in those counties. But how many of them are households with women who will vote differently from their husbands or fathers privately?
posted by brook horse at 10:11 AM on October 24 [6 favorites]
Last year Dems turned out for a woman who put abortion front and center, who won to the tune of 11 percentage points. She swept several GOP stronghold counties as well (one of which I help run an LGBT group in).
That said I still see tons of Trump signs in those counties. But how many of them are households with women who will vote differently from their husbands or fathers privately?
posted by brook horse at 10:11 AM on October 24 [6 favorites]
Just got back from voting.
It's like a stealth campaign this year. My polling place is a block from my house, so I pass by it pretty much daily and have done so for over a decade and a half. The place is usually littered with signs. This year, at most, there's about 1/3 of the regular signs. Only one sign for Harris/Walz and none for Trump/Vance. None for Cruz or Allred either. Very few for any statewide races.
Out around town, I have only seen one Harris/Walz sign. Strangely, it was in the red part of town. It's also been up for several weeks with getting stolen/graffiti-ed.
I have no idea what any of this means, or if it means anything at all.
This is also the first time I voted during the middle of a workday. Line was decent size. The one time I voted at night was maybe double the size. But, that time there was a major bond issue at play, so EVERYONE was voting. Staring at the tea leaves, it makes me think this will be a high volume election.
As far as Texas vibes that kensington314 asked about: I haven't really been feeling any. Granted, I work mostly remote and when I am working onsite, I don't talk to many people. But, still, not seeing bumper stickers. Very few signs in front of houses. I can't recall any for any national candidate. Maybe I'm in a fever dream. Maybe I just tune 'em out.
I won't be home on election day, so I won't be able to compare the atmosphere from 2020 to 2024, which is a bummer. In 2020, it was a mad house near where I work. MANY oversized trucks with oversized Trump flags just driving around town like they were teens cruising main street on a Friday night. (And driving about as safe.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 11:13 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
It's like a stealth campaign this year. My polling place is a block from my house, so I pass by it pretty much daily and have done so for over a decade and a half. The place is usually littered with signs. This year, at most, there's about 1/3 of the regular signs. Only one sign for Harris/Walz and none for Trump/Vance. None for Cruz or Allred either. Very few for any statewide races.
Out around town, I have only seen one Harris/Walz sign. Strangely, it was in the red part of town. It's also been up for several weeks with getting stolen/graffiti-ed.
I have no idea what any of this means, or if it means anything at all.
This is also the first time I voted during the middle of a workday. Line was decent size. The one time I voted at night was maybe double the size. But, that time there was a major bond issue at play, so EVERYONE was voting. Staring at the tea leaves, it makes me think this will be a high volume election.
As far as Texas vibes that kensington314 asked about: I haven't really been feeling any. Granted, I work mostly remote and when I am working onsite, I don't talk to many people. But, still, not seeing bumper stickers. Very few signs in front of houses. I can't recall any for any national candidate. Maybe I'm in a fever dream. Maybe I just tune 'em out.
I won't be home on election day, so I won't be able to compare the atmosphere from 2020 to 2024, which is a bummer. In 2020, it was a mad house near where I work. MANY oversized trucks with oversized Trump flags just driving around town like they were teens cruising main street on a Friday night. (And driving about as safe.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 11:13 AM on October 24 [4 favorites]
Tiny frying pan - fair point! I hope my intuition is wrong!
posted by wittgenstein at 11:37 AM on October 24
posted by wittgenstein at 11:37 AM on October 24
The place is usually littered with signs. This year, at most, there's about 1/3 of the regular signs. Only one sign for Harris/Walz and none for Trump/Vance. None for Cruz or Allred either. Very few for any statewide races.
I don't have any scientific basis to prove this, but I can't help but wonder if the last several years have left more people burned out on politics and less interested in advertising their side. I know I have seen multiple people in my social circle (including myself) who feel this way.
Also, there could be some concern of retaliation which I'd say is reasonable, I don't think people have gotten more civil and tolerant of differing viewpoints in the past few years.
posted by photo guy at 11:46 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
I don't have any scientific basis to prove this, but I can't help but wonder if the last several years have left more people burned out on politics and less interested in advertising their side. I know I have seen multiple people in my social circle (including myself) who feel this way.
Also, there could be some concern of retaliation which I'd say is reasonable, I don't think people have gotten more civil and tolerant of differing viewpoints in the past few years.
posted by photo guy at 11:46 AM on October 24 [2 favorites]
Is Nevada a place without MeFites? Is MeFi a place without Nevadans? I'd be curious to hear from anyone there. I have heard that campaign operatives feel that Nevada is lost, but would be interested to hear from folks there how the situation feels.
posted by kensington314 at 11:47 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
posted by kensington314 at 11:47 AM on October 24 [1 favorite]
Central NC here and vibe is ok, but I am personally struggling due to 2 teenagers with neuro issues, loss of job, advanced dementia in a parent, long-term back pain, tinnitus, and anxiety so bad I need to pee 25-30 times a day. I've been highly functional all along, but I can tell that since 2016 when Trump won I have been in worse shape. I'm in my 50s and recently self-diagnosed with ASD (medical diagnoses for adult ASD can take years), which explains why I need the world to be fair and work by a predictable set of rules. Just the fact that Trump has remained a presence this whole time has caused me to spiral to a total lack of faith in humanity and mistrust of everyone. Last week I scraped all the progressive stickers off my car because I'm afraid I'll be a target if Trump wins.
Having said all that, I did 1 voter canvass event (first time ever), made my own voting guide for friends, helped my elderly dad vote, and sent 20 letters to prospective voters. Also tomorrow my older kid is coming home from school on the train and we are going to early vote together tomorrow evening. I see many more Harris signs here in suburban Wake County but in the older neighborhood where I go for walks I see some giant Trump flags and even Michelle Morrow for School Superintendent signs. So I just don't know.
My biggest stress is that the paths after Nov. 5 all seem kind of bad. If Harris wins and we win the House, we are still very likely to have a Republican Senate (meaning gridlock) and we will have a 6-3 Supreme Court for a long while, which means a Harris admin will be limited on any regulations. Also there will be months and months of challenges from Trump lawyers and probably right-wing violence. If she loses, I don't know what to do. My first (nonviolent) thought is that we should all completely boycott the economy indefinitely besides groceries and medications. Cancel all streaming, stop getting food from any chain restaurants, buy nothing online, stop traveling . Probably hurts the wrong people, but if anyone knows of any prep for mass protests like this, memail me the links.
Non-bummer best case:
* Harris wins overwhelmingly such that legal challenges are not viable.
* Somehow Dems keep the Senate tied with Walz the tiebreaker.
* Dems win the House.
* A couple of SC justices fall off a ski lift and are replaced, giving us 5-4.
* Citizens United is overturned.
* Strong laws are passed to rein in AI and social media (not just TikTok ... X, Facebook, Instagram, etc.), including digital rights for humans.
* Protests and/or other pressure gets Harris to pursue a less Israel- and military-focused ME policy.
* Progress on income equality and housing actually happens.
* Harris is succeeded by a more progressive president.
* ???
* Profit!
posted by caviar2d2 at 12:31 PM on October 24 [10 favorites]
Having said all that, I did 1 voter canvass event (first time ever), made my own voting guide for friends, helped my elderly dad vote, and sent 20 letters to prospective voters. Also tomorrow my older kid is coming home from school on the train and we are going to early vote together tomorrow evening. I see many more Harris signs here in suburban Wake County but in the older neighborhood where I go for walks I see some giant Trump flags and even Michelle Morrow for School Superintendent signs. So I just don't know.
My biggest stress is that the paths after Nov. 5 all seem kind of bad. If Harris wins and we win the House, we are still very likely to have a Republican Senate (meaning gridlock) and we will have a 6-3 Supreme Court for a long while, which means a Harris admin will be limited on any regulations. Also there will be months and months of challenges from Trump lawyers and probably right-wing violence. If she loses, I don't know what to do. My first (nonviolent) thought is that we should all completely boycott the economy indefinitely besides groceries and medications. Cancel all streaming, stop getting food from any chain restaurants, buy nothing online, stop traveling . Probably hurts the wrong people, but if anyone knows of any prep for mass protests like this, memail me the links.
Non-bummer best case:
* Harris wins overwhelmingly such that legal challenges are not viable.
* Somehow Dems keep the Senate tied with Walz the tiebreaker.
* Dems win the House.
* A couple of SC justices fall off a ski lift and are replaced, giving us 5-4.
* Citizens United is overturned.
* Strong laws are passed to rein in AI and social media (not just TikTok ... X, Facebook, Instagram, etc.), including digital rights for humans.
* Protests and/or other pressure gets Harris to pursue a less Israel- and military-focused ME policy.
* Progress on income equality and housing actually happens.
* Harris is succeeded by a more progressive president.
* ???
* Profit!
posted by caviar2d2 at 12:31 PM on October 24 [10 favorites]
I just really wish I could disconnect from it all. I keep getting filled with anger and anxiety that it's even a question that Trump could win. Thing is, I'm one of the ones that would be OK. I worry about those who will not be. I'm also tired of the biggest assholes being rewarded so richly for being such horrible people. During the last Trump term I was seriously wondering why it's worth it to try to be a decent person. I do try to remember that anger and such will not change a single vote, and will not change the fact that our society is so badly broken that we're at this point. Oh well. In two weeks we'll know, and I'll know if I'm going to have to start considering whether to buy a firearm.
posted by azpenguin at 12:47 PM on October 24 [6 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 12:47 PM on October 24 [6 favorites]
Bwah? Owning a firearm makes you less safe. Please stay safe.
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:50 PM on October 24 [5 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:50 PM on October 24 [5 favorites]
Seconding tiny frying pan
posted by kensington314 at 12:53 PM on October 24
posted by kensington314 at 12:53 PM on October 24
Bwah? Owning a firearm makes you less safe. Please stay safe.
This is true. But I really don’t care anymore.
posted by azpenguin at 1:00 PM on October 24 [2 favorites]
This is true. But I really don’t care anymore.
posted by azpenguin at 1:00 PM on October 24 [2 favorites]
My wishlist:
* Expand the Supreme Court to 13 justices, to match the number of circuits (plus 13 colonies & etc.)
* A new apportionment act to remove the cap of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives
* Statehood for Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico (if they want)
Stretch goal: impeach and remove the Trump justices and Clarence Thomas
posted by kirkaracha at 1:01 PM on October 24 [15 favorites]
* Expand the Supreme Court to 13 justices, to match the number of circuits (plus 13 colonies & etc.)
* A new apportionment act to remove the cap of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives
* Statehood for Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico (if they want)
Stretch goal: impeach and remove the Trump justices and Clarence Thomas
posted by kirkaracha at 1:01 PM on October 24 [15 favorites]
Ok, that is a very scary update. Please don't harm yourself (or anyone else!)
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:01 PM on October 24 [4 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:01 PM on October 24 [4 favorites]
Voted on the second day of no excuse early voting here in Missouri. There was a long line and it took us 1 hour 40 minutes to vote.
There have been many reports of long lines at voting places around Missouri - and a few with no lines (usually smaller counties, less busy times of day).
Overall impression: There is a LOT of interest in this election and there is going to be a huge turnout.
This is the first presidential election with no excuse in person voting starting 2 weeks before election day. (In 2020 we had no excuse mail-in absentee voting - also a first. But that has been rescinded now. Normal absentee voting procudure in Missouri requires notarizing the return envelope, which I've done a couple of times and is a huge pain in the ass. So being able to just go and vote any time within a two week period, no excuse or reason required, is a major improvement.)
Besides the presidential race - which is hopeless in Missouri this year - we have most statewide offices, one of the senators, the usual gaggle of judge approval votes (there has been a serious attempt to oust two supreme court justices who recently voted to keep the abortion rights amendment off the ballot - it will be interesting to see if that has any legs) and no fewer than SIX statewide ballot initiatives:
* Repealing the abortion ban
* Two efforts to approve different sorts of gambling (new riverboat + online sports gambling)
* Raise the minimum wage to $15/hour by 2026, then keep adjusting for inflation
* A dirty underhanded attempt to pre-emptively ban ranked-choice voting at all levels (city thru state)
* A dirty underhanded attempt to reinstate funding of sheriff & law enforcement salaries & retirement via court fees. This is a clear and severe conflict of interest (it gives a clear incentive for law enforcement to arrest more people & bring them into court - regardless of outcome) and was declared unconstitutional a few years ago. So they are trying to get the principle enshrined directly in the constitution by putting very vague wording on the ballot - no one can even figure out what the initiative is supposed to do, but it mentions "law enforcement" so a large contingent of know-nothings is bound to vote YES.
Interestingly, we also had a county-wide initiative to create a fund dedicated to improving elderly and aging services.
posted by flug at 2:09 PM on October 24 [3 favorites]
There have been many reports of long lines at voting places around Missouri - and a few with no lines (usually smaller counties, less busy times of day).
Overall impression: There is a LOT of interest in this election and there is going to be a huge turnout.
This is the first presidential election with no excuse in person voting starting 2 weeks before election day. (In 2020 we had no excuse mail-in absentee voting - also a first. But that has been rescinded now. Normal absentee voting procudure in Missouri requires notarizing the return envelope, which I've done a couple of times and is a huge pain in the ass. So being able to just go and vote any time within a two week period, no excuse or reason required, is a major improvement.)
Besides the presidential race - which is hopeless in Missouri this year - we have most statewide offices, one of the senators, the usual gaggle of judge approval votes (there has been a serious attempt to oust two supreme court justices who recently voted to keep the abortion rights amendment off the ballot - it will be interesting to see if that has any legs) and no fewer than SIX statewide ballot initiatives:
* Repealing the abortion ban
* Two efforts to approve different sorts of gambling (new riverboat + online sports gambling)
* Raise the minimum wage to $15/hour by 2026, then keep adjusting for inflation
* A dirty underhanded attempt to pre-emptively ban ranked-choice voting at all levels (city thru state)
* A dirty underhanded attempt to reinstate funding of sheriff & law enforcement salaries & retirement via court fees. This is a clear and severe conflict of interest (it gives a clear incentive for law enforcement to arrest more people & bring them into court - regardless of outcome) and was declared unconstitutional a few years ago. So they are trying to get the principle enshrined directly in the constitution by putting very vague wording on the ballot - no one can even figure out what the initiative is supposed to do, but it mentions "law enforcement" so a large contingent of know-nothings is bound to vote YES.
Interestingly, we also had a county-wide initiative to create a fund dedicated to improving elderly and aging services.
posted by flug at 2:09 PM on October 24 [3 favorites]
I live in Washington state in a semi-rural area. Definitely less Trump signs than 2016 or 2020... more for the Governor race and so on. One place did put up a huge banner of the bloody Trump. I do occasionally see a Trump-flag-flying truck, but they stand out because they're so rare now.
I already voted, and it shows as accepted. Thanks to everyone doing more. My personal vibe is very down: I just don't want to face the fact that we're basically a coin flip from a convicted felon president.
posted by netowl at 2:15 PM on October 24 [1 favorite]
I already voted, and it shows as accepted. Thanks to everyone doing more. My personal vibe is very down: I just don't want to face the fact that we're basically a coin flip from a convicted felon president.
posted by netowl at 2:15 PM on October 24 [1 favorite]
I forgot to mention that I live in a very blue enclave in a (now) very red state. So predictions:
- Republicans sweep the presidency and most all or all statewide races. We'll be doing good if even one of them - like the Senate race featuring the execrable Josh Hawley - is even slightly close
- Nevertheless, the very progressive leaning initiatives will also win handily. Specifically, those are abortion rights & a massive increase in the minimum wage.
The Republicans will spend the next 20 years trying to undermine those initiatives in every possible way.
So yay for living in heavily gerrymandered non-representative state run by ghouls.
posted by flug at 2:17 PM on October 24 [3 favorites]
- Republicans sweep the presidency and most all or all statewide races. We'll be doing good if even one of them - like the Senate race featuring the execrable Josh Hawley - is even slightly close
- Nevertheless, the very progressive leaning initiatives will also win handily. Specifically, those are abortion rights & a massive increase in the minimum wage.
The Republicans will spend the next 20 years trying to undermine those initiatives in every possible way.
So yay for living in heavily gerrymandered non-representative state run by ghouls.
posted by flug at 2:17 PM on October 24 [3 favorites]
FWIW my call on the presidential race is that Trump has lost a lot of the magic that somehow propelled him over the top in 2016 - the ability to really light the fire under the racists and assholes who had been hiding under a stump and hadn't voted, or even showered and showed up in public, in the past 30 years or so.
But, in exchange, he has gained total control of the Republican Party and apparatus. He's no longer the nutty outsider - he's the very center of the Republican Party and movement now.
Back in 2016, all of my very religious Mormon relatives out west were totally appalled by Trump and everything he stood for. Many, many of them voted against him even in the General Election - voting for a 3rd party candidate or at least abstaining. It was really remarkable - Trump didn't even take 50% of the vote in Utah, and the Republican candidate was a full 27% down (!!) compared with the previous presidential election.
In 2024, that is no longer true - at all. Everyone last one of those people is now an enthusiastic Trump voter.
posted by flug at 2:26 PM on October 24 [8 favorites]
But, in exchange, he has gained total control of the Republican Party and apparatus. He's no longer the nutty outsider - he's the very center of the Republican Party and movement now.
Back in 2016, all of my very religious Mormon relatives out west were totally appalled by Trump and everything he stood for. Many, many of them voted against him even in the General Election - voting for a 3rd party candidate or at least abstaining. It was really remarkable - Trump didn't even take 50% of the vote in Utah, and the Republican candidate was a full 27% down (!!) compared with the previous presidential election.
In 2024, that is no longer true - at all. Everyone last one of those people is now an enthusiastic Trump voter.
posted by flug at 2:26 PM on October 24 [8 favorites]
I've marked and printed my overseas ballot for Missouri; I just have to mail it in. I left president blank and otherwise voted Dem straight down the ticket, for whatever good it'll do. Followed my usual practice of voting No on every judge retention, because Missouri judges universally fucking suck, but i know perfectly well they'll all get retained.
Also, obviously, voted Yes on the repro-rights amendment, and Yes to increase the minimum wage. Voted No on the amendment to prohibit ranked-choice voting.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:53 PM on October 24 [2 favorites]
Also, obviously, voted Yes on the repro-rights amendment, and Yes to increase the minimum wage. Voted No on the amendment to prohibit ranked-choice voting.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:53 PM on October 24 [2 favorites]
As an Aussie, my main vibes check is via Crooked Media podcasts and late show monologues. My friends aren't talking about it much, just kind of grimly hopeful. We're all counting on you; I don't think my liver could take another 4 years of TFG.
posted by Marticus at 7:20 PM on October 24 [4 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 7:20 PM on October 24 [4 favorites]
Okay, I was balls to the wall optimistic and certain Harris would sail through in a landslide until I read this thread. And I live in TEXAS.
This thread has given me stomach panics.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 7:12 AM on October 25 [3 favorites]
This thread has given me stomach panics.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 7:12 AM on October 25 [3 favorites]
Results on electoral-vote.com are looking much worse than they did when it was originally mentioned in this thread. (Harris 241, Trump 278, tie in PA with 19 votes.)
posted by paper chromatographologist at 7:27 AM on October 25
posted by paper chromatographologist at 7:27 AM on October 25
Okay, let me share my actual vibes after just panic-commenting: My extremely pro-Trump stepmom from the last election cycle has been replaced by a stepmom that blurted out "I'll believe in the rule of law again when that idiot dies in jail like he should already be doing" at our last family gathering.
My sister and her new husband (whose cover FB image for more than a year was a gallows with the word "fauci" carved into it) looked embarrassed and said nothing.
My dad has been quietly proselytizing family and friends about the Democratic party... and he lives in blood-red East Texas.
All the now-adult children of my friends who could not vote in the last election are enthusiastically voting Harris this year.
That electoral-vote.com link is terrifying, as I had previously seen it only solid for Harris. I hadn't felt any real panic about this election until today.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 7:31 AM on October 25 [4 favorites]
My sister and her new husband (whose cover FB image for more than a year was a gallows with the word "fauci" carved into it) looked embarrassed and said nothing.
My dad has been quietly proselytizing family and friends about the Democratic party... and he lives in blood-red East Texas.
All the now-adult children of my friends who could not vote in the last election are enthusiastically voting Harris this year.
That electoral-vote.com link is terrifying, as I had previously seen it only solid for Harris. I hadn't felt any real panic about this election until today.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 7:31 AM on October 25 [4 favorites]
Results on electoral-vote.com are looking much worse than they did when it was originally mentioned in this thread.
Doubly so since that map has Harris most likely winning Michigan.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:20 AM on October 25
Doubly so since that map has Harris most likely winning Michigan.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:20 AM on October 25
I think panicking is a super understandable response to the situation and I certainly am not going to judge anyone for their reaction given the extent to which I am an irritable bundle of nervous anxiety.
I am also trying to think about things I can do to prepare for any situation (Trump win, Trump loss, Trump loses but doesn't accept the results) in ways that are practical and make me feel better. One of those ways is seeking out community and knowing that I'm not alone in my fear, other people are afraid of the same things I am and we can support each other. Other things that I'm trying to do include getting together with neighbors to plan a block party! Hopefully everyone has a good time and it means we all know each other a little better and if stuff gets bad we'll be in a better position to help and trust each other. I've also worked to gain as much first aid knowledge as I reasonably can; you'll never be sorry to be able to care for someone who's hurt.
If there are other strategies people have I would love to hear them and, Unicorn on the Cob, you are very much not alone and I hope this comment helps.
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:21 AM on October 25 [6 favorites]
I am also trying to think about things I can do to prepare for any situation (Trump win, Trump loss, Trump loses but doesn't accept the results) in ways that are practical and make me feel better. One of those ways is seeking out community and knowing that I'm not alone in my fear, other people are afraid of the same things I am and we can support each other. Other things that I'm trying to do include getting together with neighbors to plan a block party! Hopefully everyone has a good time and it means we all know each other a little better and if stuff gets bad we'll be in a better position to help and trust each other. I've also worked to gain as much first aid knowledge as I reasonably can; you'll never be sorry to be able to care for someone who's hurt.
If there are other strategies people have I would love to hear them and, Unicorn on the Cob, you are very much not alone and I hope this comment helps.
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:21 AM on October 25 [6 favorites]
I'm seriously praying to St. Jude on this one and I'm not even Catholic.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:02 AM on October 25 [3 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:02 AM on October 25 [3 favorites]
hi are we allowed to scream incoherently in this thread
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
posted by neuron at 9:17 AM on October 25 [7 favorites]
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
posted by neuron at 9:17 AM on October 25 [7 favorites]
My personal vibes:
"Kamala Harris is going to win in a landslide and we are finally going to put this fashy shit to bed and start getting things done."
(exactly two minutes later)
"Trump is going to win in a landslide and I am going to have to move to rural Europe and work in a factory or some shit."
(repeat)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:09 AM on October 25 [8 favorites]
"Kamala Harris is going to win in a landslide and we are finally going to put this fashy shit to bed and start getting things done."
(exactly two minutes later)
"Trump is going to win in a landslide and I am going to have to move to rural Europe and work in a factory or some shit."
(repeat)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:09 AM on October 25 [8 favorites]
hi are we allowed to scream incoherently in this threadYour ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
Here ya go!
posted by wenestvedt at 10:24 AM on October 25 [1 favorite]
I really think looking at electoral-vote is a mistake. You're much better off looking at a polling aggregator (not RCP). Right now the averages have Harris like +1 in all of MI/WI/PA which theoretically would be enough to get her exactly 270 electoral votes.
Me being me, I don't really believe the polling averages in my gut. But they're more reflective of the actual state of the polling than electoral-vote which AFAIK just does some weird shit like slapping the last poll onto their map even if it flies in the face of 5 previous polls released the day before.
posted by Justinian at 11:27 AM on October 25 [7 favorites]
Me being me, I don't really believe the polling averages in my gut. But they're more reflective of the actual state of the polling than electoral-vote which AFAIK just does some weird shit like slapping the last poll onto their map even if it flies in the face of 5 previous polls released the day before.
posted by Justinian at 11:27 AM on October 25 [7 favorites]
Yes, according to the FAQ at electoral-vote.com, it uses the most recent poll for each state to determine which state goes to whom. That's why it jumps around so much and why it shows Wisconsin going to Trump because the most recent single poll showed him up 49%-48%. Meanwhile over at WaPo, which aggregates only high-quality polls, Harris is up by 2 in Wisconsin and Michigan, and 1 in Pennsylvania, which presumably would be enough to land her the presidency.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 11:44 AM on October 25 [2 favorites]
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 11:44 AM on October 25 [2 favorites]
It's hard to imagine a worse methodology than simply slapping the last poll to cross your field of vision onto the map and calling it a day, but they get a ton of visitors and I get none so who is to say who is correct.
posted by Justinian at 11:53 AM on October 25 [14 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:53 AM on October 25 [14 favorites]
yasaman's comment with the link to the story about more donors to Harris than Trump in (nearly) * every state got me curious, so I created a corresponding map showing states with more donors to Harris.
Donors are not equal to voters, but by the same token, polls are not votes, either.
I think some of the other indicators show that the polls are seriously off.
Which means: we can do this, but we need every vote, so if you have any energy or money to make sure we get the strongest possible field for progressive change, now's a great time to take action.
Thanks for the link, yasaman!
* Originally, the WaPo reported more Harris donors in all 50 states, but they've since revised their info, and now it's 44 of the 50.
posted by kristi at 12:16 PM on October 25 [8 favorites]
Donors are not equal to voters, but by the same token, polls are not votes, either.
I think some of the other indicators show that the polls are seriously off.
Which means: we can do this, but we need every vote, so if you have any energy or money to make sure we get the strongest possible field for progressive change, now's a great time to take action.
Thanks for the link, yasaman!
* Originally, the WaPo reported more Harris donors in all 50 states, but they've since revised their info, and now it's 44 of the 50.
posted by kristi at 12:16 PM on October 25 [8 favorites]
Get Out the Native Vote! is going hard in Wisconsin right now. Got some free t-shirts from attending a local indigenous arts festival. They were previously responsible for getting my mother in law registered, who is notoriously difficult to pin down with anything requiring paperwork, so they’re doing something effective!
(Obsessed with the ‘sko vote den! tagline btw. Midwest Indians are the funniest people I have had the privilege of hanging out with.)
posted by brook horse at 12:17 PM on October 25 [12 favorites]
(Obsessed with the ‘sko vote den! tagline btw. Midwest Indians are the funniest people I have had the privilege of hanging out with.)
posted by brook horse at 12:17 PM on October 25 [12 favorites]
Considering the right wing media spin and the fact that Trump town halls are chosen from Trump rallies, I bet that there are a lot of skewed polls that Elon Musk and his ilk are financing.
posted by effluvia at 12:23 PM on October 25 [3 favorites]
posted by effluvia at 12:23 PM on October 25 [3 favorites]
There are a lot of right wing polls flooding the averages but the reputable aggregators account for that. The poll averages among the top-tier pollsters are basically Trump +1 to Harris +1 in the most important swing states of PA MI WI AZ NV NC GA. Harris is +1 in enough to get to 270 but only barely which is not a comfortable place to be.
posted by Justinian at 1:25 PM on October 25 [7 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 1:25 PM on October 25 [7 favorites]
Democrats panicking for no reason, pollsters say – US race nail-bitingly close: Polls suggest Harris and Trump still neck-and-neck, but Democrats pessimistic and Republicans confident [The Guardian]
Taken at face value, the figures are no disaster for Harris and hardly represent a triumph for Trump. If they match the outcome on 5 November, Harris will win a majority of votes in the electoral college.posted by mazola at 8:51 AM on October 26 [2 favorites]
But you would never know this from the jarringly different moods in the two camps.
Amid increasingly apocalyptic warnings from Harris that Trump represents fascism and dictatorship-in-waiting, her Democratic supporters have emitted an air of panic in recent days.
Back in the land of vibes, I have encountered more than a couple "world peace" new agey types who are Trump supporters. One of whom cited Captain Brainstorms in his explanation.
posted by DebetEsse at 9:53 AM on October 26 [2 favorites]
posted by DebetEsse at 9:53 AM on October 26 [2 favorites]
> "Democrats panicking for no reason, pollsters say – US race nail-bitingly close"
The last part of that headline contradicts the first part of that headline.
posted by kyrademon at 10:02 AM on October 26 [8 favorites]
The last part of that headline contradicts the first part of that headline.
posted by kyrademon at 10:02 AM on October 26 [8 favorites]
Democrats panicking for no reason, pollsters say – US race nail-bitingly close
I mean, I'm panicking because it's close. In a world where there was any sort of sanity being displayed by the voting public, this shouldn't be even remotely a horserace. On one side we have someone who might be a bit bland but is basically clearly capable of the job, and on the other we have a clearly ill person who is having trouble stringing together a coherent statement, canceling appearances left and right, and who is being denounced by almost every participant in his former administration. I'm not even getting into policies or politics here: superficially one can see this as a clear contrast between someone who is capable of doing an important job and someone who is not. In every damn state a majority of people should realize that. The fact that enough people are going for the manifestly unfit choice, whether out of party loyalty, cult capture, ignorance, or whatever, to make this not a blowout, much less a close race, is pretty fucking panic-inducing.
posted by jackbishop at 10:10 AM on October 26 [13 favorites]
I mean, I'm panicking because it's close. In a world where there was any sort of sanity being displayed by the voting public, this shouldn't be even remotely a horserace. On one side we have someone who might be a bit bland but is basically clearly capable of the job, and on the other we have a clearly ill person who is having trouble stringing together a coherent statement, canceling appearances left and right, and who is being denounced by almost every participant in his former administration. I'm not even getting into policies or politics here: superficially one can see this as a clear contrast between someone who is capable of doing an important job and someone who is not. In every damn state a majority of people should realize that. The fact that enough people are going for the manifestly unfit choice, whether out of party loyalty, cult capture, ignorance, or whatever, to make this not a blowout, much less a close race, is pretty fucking panic-inducing.
posted by jackbishop at 10:10 AM on October 26 [13 favorites]
Yeah, like if you were waiting on a biopsy result to see if a mass in your pancreas was cancer or not and they told you it was 50/50 either way, I think you could be forgiven for panicking a little. I wouldn't say you had no reason even if it might be counter productive.
posted by Justinian at 11:24 AM on October 26 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:24 AM on October 26 [2 favorites]
It's a beautiful fall afternoon in SE Michigan, so I took a walk around the neighborhood.
Now, I have the misfortune of residing in a particularly MAGA-y part of an aleady-MAGA-y county, so I keep trying to remind myself that the preponderance of Trump/Vance signs still proudly displayed everyfuckingwhere I go are likely not representative of where the electorate writ large is at.
But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't almost as nervous as I am disgusted. Which is a whole hell of a lot.
posted by non canadian guy at 12:57 PM on October 26 [4 favorites]
Now, I have the misfortune of residing in a particularly MAGA-y part of an aleady-MAGA-y county, so I keep trying to remind myself that the preponderance of Trump/Vance signs still proudly displayed everyfuckingwhere I go are likely not representative of where the electorate writ large is at.
But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't almost as nervous as I am disgusted. Which is a whole hell of a lot.
posted by non canadian guy at 12:57 PM on October 26 [4 favorites]
Today's vibe report comes from canvassing in nearby Wake County NC, which is a lighter shade of blue than my own county.
Much more Trump signs (although to be fair, there are hardly any where I live). As always, my efforts were mainly rewarded with doors that never opened, but I maybe succeeded in convincing a few people to vote early instead of wait until Election Day. My one undecided was a teacher, whose top priority is education, and who agreed that Betsy DeVos was awful - and yet...undecided.
posted by coffeecat at 1:25 PM on October 26 [7 favorites]
Much more Trump signs (although to be fair, there are hardly any where I live). As always, my efforts were mainly rewarded with doors that never opened, but I maybe succeeded in convincing a few people to vote early instead of wait until Election Day. My one undecided was a teacher, whose top priority is education, and who agreed that Betsy DeVos was awful - and yet...undecided.
posted by coffeecat at 1:25 PM on October 26 [7 favorites]
We got canvased today in metro Atlanta. I thanked them and promised we absolutely intend to vote and it will absolutely be for Harris. They really wanted to give me campaign info or early voting info, but I promised we're fine. But I guess we really do need to early vote.
posted by hydropsyche at 1:58 PM on October 26 [3 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 1:58 PM on October 26 [3 favorites]
Exactly two houses have signs in this tiny Illinois village surrounded by corn and soybeans in a mostly Republican district. The Harris sign has been up ever since they were available. Directly across the street, the Trump sign comes and goes; sometimes it gets banished to unobtrusively lean against the side of the garage. My hope is that they’re at least occasionally deeply embarrassed to be supporters.
posted by salix at 3:45 PM on October 26 [1 favorite]
posted by salix at 3:45 PM on October 26 [1 favorite]
National treasure Alexandra Petri : Trump and Harris on the issues: A guide for undecided voters
(Washington Post gift link)
(Washington Post gift link)
How fascist are the candidates?posted by kirkaracha at 3:49 PM on October 26 [7 favorites]
Harris: Not.
Trump: “To the core,” according to Gen. Mark A. Milley, the former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
...
Health insurance?
Harris: If you like your Affordable Care Act, you can keep your Affordable Care Act.
Trump: Will replace it with a dream he once had about teeth falling out (not his teeth, other people’s).
...
Would you like to speak about the penis of the golfer Arnold Palmer?
Harris: No.
Trump: Yes, at length.
I'm starting to get pretty nervous. And have no idea how the fuck we're even in this position.
Biden's appointment of Merrick Garland and his general desire to look forward might have caused incalculable damage to this republic.
posted by Gadarene at 3:51 PM on October 26 [4 favorites]
Biden's appointment of Merrick Garland and his general desire to look forward might have caused incalculable damage to this republic.
posted by Gadarene at 3:51 PM on October 26 [4 favorites]
It still all comes down to PA, yeah? If it's gonna come down to 30k votes or something again, which it probably will, I'd still put my money on the candidate with a functioning campaign operation.
I'm choosing also to be heartened by the Dems pulling money out of House races in swing states and putting it into even more aspirational campaigns.
posted by kensington314 at 6:05 PM on October 26 [2 favorites]
I'm choosing also to be heartened by the Dems pulling money out of House races in swing states and putting it into even more aspirational campaigns.
posted by kensington314 at 6:05 PM on October 26 [2 favorites]
It still all comes down to PA, yeah?
Depends on how Harris does in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
posted by Gadarene at 6:36 PM on October 26 [1 favorite]
Depends on how Harris does in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
posted by Gadarene at 6:36 PM on October 26 [1 favorite]
I guess that's true if we take NC, NV, and AZ out of the equation, which I'm sure some combination of those will go to Trump. I'm still optimistic about WI and less so about MI.
posted by kensington314 at 7:06 PM on October 26
posted by kensington314 at 7:06 PM on October 26
I still think PA will be ever so slightly to the right of MI.
posted by Justinian at 7:09 PM on October 26
posted by Justinian at 7:09 PM on October 26
PA is still very important. Plan A for Harris begins with "win the blue wall": Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. However, winning only those states and none of the sunbelt swing states (NV, AZ, GA, NC) would give her exactly 270 electoral votes based on the current map, which leaves no margin for error. Harris really needs at least one sunbelt state in that scenario to avoid sabotage, ratfucking or even direct physical attacks from Republicans that would prevent that state from having its electoral votes accepted. Such attempts in 2020 didn't succeed, and almost certainly any of them would be illegal, but if they did succeed, chances of the criminals facing appropriate consequences for such crimes are slim to none.
At 270, you could also have a single faithless elector in a blue state that does not require rogue electors to vote according to the popular vote in their state, two examples are Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. If the election ends up being 269-268-1, nobody has a majority, the election is thrown to a contingent election in the House, the rules of which favor Republicans, and Trump is now president.
On the other hand, if Harris wins all the sunbelt swing states, she could afford to lose Michigan, or even Pennsylvania. (But probably not both.)
A factor running slightly in favor of Harris here is that there are very few Republican governors of blue or swing states to cause problems. If Florida were the deciding state like in 2000, we'd be screwed. States to watch this year at the governor level: Georgia, but Kemp did resist Trump pressure to overturn the election in 2020. We'll see what happens this time. Sununu in New Hampshire is a lame duck and doesn't seem motivated to engage in sabotage. Lombardo in Nevada is an unknown, could be suspect, but he also has to work with a Democrat as Secretary of State in charge of elections.
At the legislature level, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia (possibly other states?) have legislatures with Republican members who are motivated to engage in criminal and anti-democratic activity...it's not clear when and how they could interfere. They've got the desire, they may not have the means. Wisconsin Republicans made some half-hearted efforts in 2020, but failed.
The seat belt sign is lit up, please return to your seat and strap yourself in. There may be turbulence. Hopefully we land safely and just fine.
posted by gimonca at 7:07 AM on October 27 [6 favorites]
At 270, you could also have a single faithless elector in a blue state that does not require rogue electors to vote according to the popular vote in their state, two examples are Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. If the election ends up being 269-268-1, nobody has a majority, the election is thrown to a contingent election in the House, the rules of which favor Republicans, and Trump is now president.
On the other hand, if Harris wins all the sunbelt swing states, she could afford to lose Michigan, or even Pennsylvania. (But probably not both.)
A factor running slightly in favor of Harris here is that there are very few Republican governors of blue or swing states to cause problems. If Florida were the deciding state like in 2000, we'd be screwed. States to watch this year at the governor level: Georgia, but Kemp did resist Trump pressure to overturn the election in 2020. We'll see what happens this time. Sununu in New Hampshire is a lame duck and doesn't seem motivated to engage in sabotage. Lombardo in Nevada is an unknown, could be suspect, but he also has to work with a Democrat as Secretary of State in charge of elections.
At the legislature level, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia (possibly other states?) have legislatures with Republican members who are motivated to engage in criminal and anti-democratic activity...it's not clear when and how they could interfere. They've got the desire, they may not have the means. Wisconsin Republicans made some half-hearted efforts in 2020, but failed.
The seat belt sign is lit up, please return to your seat and strap yourself in. There may be turbulence. Hopefully we land safely and just fine.
posted by gimonca at 7:07 AM on October 27 [6 favorites]
I went on a Cletus Safari of my own this weekend. Drove through rural and exurban parts of Minnesota north of the Twin Cities on the way back from an event. This is a historically Republican area, going back decades. (These people voted for Michelle Bachmann a few cycles ago, if that name rings a bell.)
The sign game:
Trump signs in this area were outnumbering Harris by about 2 to 1, which in context, isn't that bad. It also shows that there are motivated Harris supporters who aren't being cowed by their culty neighbors.
There's a new MAGA slogan out there: "The People are Coming", white text on a black background. Hard to imagine a more weird, content-free, ambiguous message. Coming for what? The buffet? It's like someone's kid was playing with magnetic poetry on the fridge.
Trump signs themselves....were small. And that was strange. Lots of houses had large-format signs for Stauber, the Republican congressional candidate in the district, with little Trump signs kind of stapled to the top. I saw zero Trump signs that were larger than the smallest format that signs are produced in. Does that mean anything? Maybe, maybe not.
posted by gimonca at 7:16 AM on October 27 [2 favorites]
The sign game:
Trump signs in this area were outnumbering Harris by about 2 to 1, which in context, isn't that bad. It also shows that there are motivated Harris supporters who aren't being cowed by their culty neighbors.
There's a new MAGA slogan out there: "The People are Coming", white text on a black background. Hard to imagine a more weird, content-free, ambiguous message. Coming for what? The buffet? It's like someone's kid was playing with magnetic poetry on the fridge.
Trump signs themselves....were small. And that was strange. Lots of houses had large-format signs for Stauber, the Republican congressional candidate in the district, with little Trump signs kind of stapled to the top. I saw zero Trump signs that were larger than the smallest format that signs are produced in. Does that mean anything? Maybe, maybe not.
posted by gimonca at 7:16 AM on October 27 [2 favorites]
In two weeks we're gonna get to hear one of three takes:
1) Harris winning proves her strategy was obviously correct, I told you so!
2) Harris losing Michigan, the tipping point state, shows that obviously not making a clean break with Biden over Gaza and adopting a hardline pro-Palestinian stance was what cost her the election, I told you so!
3) Harris losing Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, shows that obviously not picking Shapiro and embracing Biden over Israel was what cost her the election, I told you so!
And yet nobody can say which one of these undoubtedly obviously correct in retrospect takes is gonna be the one to win out.
(Ok, there's a 4th possibility which is that Harris gets smoked everywhere, in which case the obvious take is that she was doomed from the start, and any other realistic candidate would also have lost. This is the one I'm going with! Though of course I'm hoping for #1 instead.)
posted by Justinian at 12:15 PM on October 27 [1 favorite]
1) Harris winning proves her strategy was obviously correct, I told you so!
2) Harris losing Michigan, the tipping point state, shows that obviously not making a clean break with Biden over Gaza and adopting a hardline pro-Palestinian stance was what cost her the election, I told you so!
3) Harris losing Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, shows that obviously not picking Shapiro and embracing Biden over Israel was what cost her the election, I told you so!
And yet nobody can say which one of these undoubtedly obviously correct in retrospect takes is gonna be the one to win out.
(Ok, there's a 4th possibility which is that Harris gets smoked everywhere, in which case the obvious take is that she was doomed from the start, and any other realistic candidate would also have lost. This is the one I'm going with! Though of course I'm hoping for #1 instead.)
posted by Justinian at 12:15 PM on October 27 [1 favorite]
Some more WI vibes: I happened to be driving through my extremely red childhood neighborhood today. There were a handful of Trump signs, but I was shocked to see multiple Harris signs as well.
To give you an idea of how conservative the area is, we stopped at an intersection to look at a map and figure out which turn to take and a 60-something couple came up one road. As we waved them to cross I realized they were the parents of my former childhood best friend. They didn’t seem to recognize me, and my very first thought was, “There is no way I can identify myself to them looking like a butch dyke in a men’s jacket, binder, and Get Out the Native Vote t-shirt. In a Prius.” I did not call any further attention to myself and they did, in fact, seem quite nervous about my [gestures] everything, despite the fact that I have never known them to be anything but jovial and friendly people—to other white cishet Christian folks, of course.
Anyway, I gasped so loud when I saw my first Harris sign my partner thought a cat had run into the road.
posted by brook horse at 1:52 PM on October 27 [9 favorites]
To give you an idea of how conservative the area is, we stopped at an intersection to look at a map and figure out which turn to take and a 60-something couple came up one road. As we waved them to cross I realized they were the parents of my former childhood best friend. They didn’t seem to recognize me, and my very first thought was, “There is no way I can identify myself to them looking like a butch dyke in a men’s jacket, binder, and Get Out the Native Vote t-shirt. In a Prius.” I did not call any further attention to myself and they did, in fact, seem quite nervous about my [gestures] everything, despite the fact that I have never known them to be anything but jovial and friendly people—to other white cishet Christian folks, of course.
Anyway, I gasped so loud when I saw my first Harris sign my partner thought a cat had run into the road.
posted by brook horse at 1:52 PM on October 27 [9 favorites]
I kicked a Trump sign in a busy area today. Felt good. And no I don’t believe in neo-nazis’ right to march either. Fuck all that .
posted by caviar2d2 at 2:27 PM on October 27 [4 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 2:27 PM on October 27 [4 favorites]
I mean, I believe in their right to march and also our right to throw shit at them and maybe even punch 'em.
posted by Justinian at 3:13 PM on October 27 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 3:13 PM on October 27 [1 favorite]
For those of you that are interested in polling a predictions, here's a clip of Rachel Bitecofer on the David Pakman show with her assessment of the election's momentum You Tube, 20 minutes: Pakman/Bitecofer
posted by effluvia at 4:51 PM on October 27
posted by effluvia at 4:51 PM on October 27
I'm not going to link the tweet, but for what it's worth Rachel Bitecofer posted some pretty nastily racist stuff this past week:
Liberals don’t want to hear it but when you bring 6 million non white people into a country with an already resurgent racism issue while inflation is high, you’re gonna pay a price.
If we survive we need to meet the electorate where it is on immigration.
So grain of salt w/r/t the quality of her analysis, and all that.
posted by Gadarene at 7:15 PM on October 27 [4 favorites]
Liberals don’t want to hear it but when you bring 6 million non white people into a country with an already resurgent racism issue while inflation is high, you’re gonna pay a price.
If we survive we need to meet the electorate where it is on immigration.
So grain of salt w/r/t the quality of her analysis, and all that.
posted by Gadarene at 7:15 PM on October 27 [4 favorites]
And yet nobody can say which one of these undoubtedly obviously correct in retrospect takes is gonna be the one to win out.
I can!
The VP-home state effect is nil, PA isn't some bastion of pro-Israel sentiment, black women turnout in Philadelphia determines a lot of the variation in voting for PA. Harris will probably win PA because its really a blue state unless youre Hillary Clinton.
If Harris loses Michigan, it will undoubtly be because of her aggressive pro-Israel stance. She doesn't need to be Arafat, she just needs to express some reconsideration of US policy and distance herself from Biden.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:33 AM on October 28 [4 favorites]
I can!
The VP-home state effect is nil, PA isn't some bastion of pro-Israel sentiment, black women turnout in Philadelphia determines a lot of the variation in voting for PA. Harris will probably win PA because its really a blue state unless youre Hillary Clinton.
If Harris loses Michigan, it will undoubtly be because of her aggressive pro-Israel stance. She doesn't need to be Arafat, she just needs to express some reconsideration of US policy and distance herself from Biden.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:33 AM on October 28 [4 favorites]
This weekend I was with a photo meetup I roll with; we were meeting up in Central Park. Our leader had us meet in Columbus Circle, which is near one of Trump's properties.
There were two kiosks selling Trump merchandise, one of which was parked in front of a trailer bedecked with Trump posters. "That's kind of an anomaly here," I heard our leader say to himself when he saw it. I'm hoping that it was a temporary thing fueled by the rally on Sunday.
Then again, while I saw several people taking pictures of it....I didn't see anyone buying anything from it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:03 AM on October 28 [2 favorites]
There were two kiosks selling Trump merchandise, one of which was parked in front of a trailer bedecked with Trump posters. "That's kind of an anomaly here," I heard our leader say to himself when he saw it. I'm hoping that it was a temporary thing fueled by the rally on Sunday.
Then again, while I saw several people taking pictures of it....I didn't see anyone buying anything from it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:03 AM on October 28 [2 favorites]
The VP-home state effect is nil
No, it isn't. Folks who have studied this find a range of effects, ranging from only a little to "enough to be significant in a close election", but not nil.
But I see you've already picked your "obvious in hindsight" narrative for this election. You're a #2 person.
posted by Justinian at 9:53 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
No, it isn't. Folks who have studied this find a range of effects, ranging from only a little to "enough to be significant in a close election", but not nil.
But I see you've already picked your "obvious in hindsight" narrative for this election. You're a #2 person.
posted by Justinian at 9:53 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
(as far as I know VPs don't really have an effect on other states but that's specifically not the claim you made, which was about their home state.)
posted by Justinian at 9:55 AM on October 28
posted by Justinian at 9:55 AM on October 28
No, it isn't. Folks who have studied this find a range of effects, ranging from only a little to "enough to be significant in a close election", but not nil.
This is just not true, plenty of studies have found null effects which is not 'only a little'.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:32 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
This is just not true, plenty of studies have found null effects which is not 'only a little'.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:32 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
But I see you've already picked your "obvious in hindsight" narrative for this election. You're a #2 person.
We have polling data that shows Harris' support among a key democratic voting bloc in Michigan has eroded considerably because of her support for Israel. If she loses Michigan, and the reason she's not doing better in the polls now, is because of that loss of support.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:34 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
We have polling data that shows Harris' support among a key democratic voting bloc in Michigan has eroded considerably because of her support for Israel. If she loses Michigan, and the reason she's not doing better in the polls now, is because of that loss of support.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:34 AM on October 28 [1 favorite]
Right, but that's contingent on her losing Michigan while winning PA and WI. If she does that then, yes, you were right! But if she wins them all, or loses PA while winning Michigan, or plenty of other scenarios then you aren't right. That's the point. We can only find out which of these obviously true (to the people who hold them) takes are true in hindsight.
posted by Justinian at 1:12 PM on October 28 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 1:12 PM on October 28 [1 favorite]
Well, I just found out that the pastor of the largest megachurch in the state, in GOP stronghold Waukesha County, explicitly told a crowd of five thousand likely-Republican evangelical Christians that they should put their faith over their politics and vote their conscience, quoting anti-Nazi dissident Dietrich Boenhoffer and emphasizing that the gospel story is about sacrificing power even if this means personal suffering instead. He then said that they don’t have to vote for the “lesser of two evils” and have the freedom to vote third party.
Which is like, a stunningly clever move—playing precisely into the evangelical “suffering for god” narrative while giving them an action which will materially increase Harris’s odds of winning but which pro-life one-issue voters can still feel good about. Based on personal conversations a friend has had with this pastor (and the fact that other churches have started attacking it in recent years for its egalitarian view on women in church leadership and refusal to condemn gay marriage), I think that was very intentional. So some more surprising vibes here in Wisconsin.
posted by brook horse at 8:17 PM on October 28 [16 favorites]
Which is like, a stunningly clever move—playing precisely into the evangelical “suffering for god” narrative while giving them an action which will materially increase Harris’s odds of winning but which pro-life one-issue voters can still feel good about. Based on personal conversations a friend has had with this pastor (and the fact that other churches have started attacking it in recent years for its egalitarian view on women in church leadership and refusal to condemn gay marriage), I think that was very intentional. So some more surprising vibes here in Wisconsin.
posted by brook horse at 8:17 PM on October 28 [16 favorites]
On the train, wearing my home-made Kamala buttons...can't tell if a man smiles at it or is scoffing. Skeptical of all faces these days.
Hanging on, this is a day by day situation.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:28 AM on October 29 [1 favorite]
Hanging on, this is a day by day situation.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:28 AM on October 29 [1 favorite]
State of the vibe in northeast Dallas: we went by the library to pick up a book I had on hold and vote early on Friday on our way out of town for a weekend trip. The line, which is usually out the front door and partway down the sidewalk to the car drop-off, snaked around the building and down to the street sidewalk, so maybe an hour's wait time.
I talked to one of the election workers because I'm partially disabled and usually can't stand that long. She said to get there at 7 AM when the polls open. Mr Epigrams went yesterday at 7 AM and was out by 7:30. I couldn't do it yesterday but I had to get up anyway this morning for a telehealth meeting with a doctor, so I voted this morning and was out by 7:20.
My neighborhood definitely has Republican voters (one of our next door neighbors has TFG flags hanging from their roof, alas) but we're mostly a Dem neighborhood that has been carved out of Colin Allred's district (he's the guy currently running against Ted Cruz) and into Beth Van Duyne's. She was the Republican mayor of Irving until she left to become the congressperson for this district, which extends from my neighborhood in NE Dallas through northern suburbs of the Metroplex and into Fort Worth. In the previous round of redistricting, I was in Lance Gooden's district that runs down into deep east Texas; he's a hater who wants to grow up to be Louie Gohmert, and my neighbors in local Dem groups report that when they went to his town halls in rural east Texas, they'd be harassed and/or thrown out. So we're a gerrymandered all to hell mostly-blue neighborhood in a blue city in a red state.
The vibe here is relatively positive, boosted by the high turnout. I think most of us think Allred is a long shot for the Senate, not because we like Cruz (nobody does, to the point that his presence at sports is considered a curse for the home team and people want him to stay away, for real) but because too many people in this state will vote for any asshole with an R by his name. See also: Ken Paxton, notorious crook and our Attorney General. That said, we're hoping to hold enough seats in the statehouse to prevent our governor, who is in thrall to some super rich dudes who want vouchers/to kill public schools, from destroying what's left of our school system.
Here in Dallas, in our city charter election, we're facing a super well-funded effort by a local hotel billionaire maned Monty Bennett, who lives in the Park Cities (enclosed very rich suburbs of Dallas, e.g, Highland Park) to screw up our city government. Bennett also bought the remains of a Black newspaper here in Dallas and uses it to sabotage anyone who doesn't suck up to him or his politics. Specifically, and there's a big Texas Observer expose on him doing this, he hires out astroturfed protests and then covers them on his pink slime news site and complains that the local papers and TV stations ignore the story. Bennett has been running under the radar for a while but his "HERO amendments" are so awful that most of Dallas' name brand elected officials and ex-mayors are full-press campaigning against them: emails, mailers, signs, op-eds, etc. One of the amendments is supposedly going to solve our police problems by mandating hiring 1000 additional officers or so ASAP and even the police union has come out against it! I'm hoping the fact that the business Republican types here in Dallas, which is the last bastion of these folks in Texas, are all against these amendments will save us from them; between the amendments and state laws designed to prevent "defunding the police", our city government will be hamstrung completely if they pass.
Probably this was more than you wanted to know. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 11:30 AM on October 29 [9 favorites]
I talked to one of the election workers because I'm partially disabled and usually can't stand that long. She said to get there at 7 AM when the polls open. Mr Epigrams went yesterday at 7 AM and was out by 7:30. I couldn't do it yesterday but I had to get up anyway this morning for a telehealth meeting with a doctor, so I voted this morning and was out by 7:20.
My neighborhood definitely has Republican voters (one of our next door neighbors has TFG flags hanging from their roof, alas) but we're mostly a Dem neighborhood that has been carved out of Colin Allred's district (he's the guy currently running against Ted Cruz) and into Beth Van Duyne's. She was the Republican mayor of Irving until she left to become the congressperson for this district, which extends from my neighborhood in NE Dallas through northern suburbs of the Metroplex and into Fort Worth. In the previous round of redistricting, I was in Lance Gooden's district that runs down into deep east Texas; he's a hater who wants to grow up to be Louie Gohmert, and my neighbors in local Dem groups report that when they went to his town halls in rural east Texas, they'd be harassed and/or thrown out. So we're a gerrymandered all to hell mostly-blue neighborhood in a blue city in a red state.
The vibe here is relatively positive, boosted by the high turnout. I think most of us think Allred is a long shot for the Senate, not because we like Cruz (nobody does, to the point that his presence at sports is considered a curse for the home team and people want him to stay away, for real) but because too many people in this state will vote for any asshole with an R by his name. See also: Ken Paxton, notorious crook and our Attorney General. That said, we're hoping to hold enough seats in the statehouse to prevent our governor, who is in thrall to some super rich dudes who want vouchers/to kill public schools, from destroying what's left of our school system.
Here in Dallas, in our city charter election, we're facing a super well-funded effort by a local hotel billionaire maned Monty Bennett, who lives in the Park Cities (enclosed very rich suburbs of Dallas, e.g, Highland Park) to screw up our city government. Bennett also bought the remains of a Black newspaper here in Dallas and uses it to sabotage anyone who doesn't suck up to him or his politics. Specifically, and there's a big Texas Observer expose on him doing this, he hires out astroturfed protests and then covers them on his pink slime news site and complains that the local papers and TV stations ignore the story. Bennett has been running under the radar for a while but his "HERO amendments" are so awful that most of Dallas' name brand elected officials and ex-mayors are full-press campaigning against them: emails, mailers, signs, op-eds, etc. One of the amendments is supposedly going to solve our police problems by mandating hiring 1000 additional officers or so ASAP and even the police union has come out against it! I'm hoping the fact that the business Republican types here in Dallas, which is the last bastion of these folks in Texas, are all against these amendments will save us from them; between the amendments and state laws designed to prevent "defunding the police", our city government will be hamstrung completely if they pass.
Probably this was more than you wanted to know. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 11:30 AM on October 29 [9 favorites]
What More Do You People Want from Kamala Harris?
Because here is the rock-bottom fact: No reasonable observer could have asked her to run a better campaign.posted by kirkaracha at 4:46 PM on October 29 [11 favorites]
Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee a hundred days ago. In that time she:Harris did not play perfect baseball—you or I could sketch out a handful of things we wish she had done differently. Or better. But the perfect campaign does not exist.
- Unified the Democratic party.
- Reversed Biden’s polling deficit and took the lead over Trump.
- Organized a successful convention.
- Created a policy framework for her prospective administration.
- Pivoted to the center on nearly every issue: From domestic energy production, to gun reform, to immigration.
- Absolutely schlonged Trump in their debate.
- Performed somewhere between adequately and exceptionally in every single media interview.
- Spent time with several non-traditional media outlets.
- Gave almost unfailingly good speeches in front of giant crowds.
- Performed heroic levels outreach to Republicans and swing voters by appearing on Fox News and campaigning with the likes of Liz Cheney—while explicitly inviting and welcoming Republican voters into her coalition.
Seriously: This has been the most error-free presidential campaign in memory and yet Harris hasn’t played it safe. She combined aggressive strategy with disciplined execution. In terms of campaigns as they exist in the actual, real world? This is as good as it gets.
Closing Argument Speech from Vice President Kamala Harris
posted by kirkaracha at 4:47 PM on October 29 [2 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:47 PM on October 29 [2 favorites]
Watched Instagram Live of the speech. Fucking fantastic - huge crowd of people chanting USA! USA! at one point. Live comments had a triumphant vibe. LOTS of Puerto Rican flags in the comments and callouts from PR folks in Florida voting for Harris.
Speech itself was a master class - tight 30 minutes, nice mix of policy broad strokes, personal anecdotes, love for country, and a bit of Trump at the beginning and end. The latter was after she talked about our beautiful country and how we fought too hard for it to give it up to a wanna be dictator. She included in the "fighting for democracy" history things like Stonewall, farm workers' rights, etc. A++.
posted by caviar2d2 at 5:15 PM on October 29 [3 favorites]
Speech itself was a master class - tight 30 minutes, nice mix of policy broad strokes, personal anecdotes, love for country, and a bit of Trump at the beginning and end. The latter was after she talked about our beautiful country and how we fought too hard for it to give it up to a wanna be dictator. She included in the "fighting for democracy" history things like Stonewall, farm workers' rights, etc. A++.
posted by caviar2d2 at 5:15 PM on October 29 [3 favorites]
Regarding Harris' accomplishments: remember that early this summer, Biden was three, four points down or more in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Harris has pushed those four states up to tied races. Is there momentum to push that trend up further? We'll see.
Will there be downballot, or even up-ballot effects? Example: Harris is running much more strongly than Biden in New York. Democrats weren't going to lose New York in the electoral college in any scenario, but could a bit of extra oomph and enthusiasm help the several House candidates in New York that Democrats want to win in order to take back the House? Watch for that possibility, too.
posted by gimonca at 5:26 AM on October 30
Will there be downballot, or even up-ballot effects? Example: Harris is running much more strongly than Biden in New York. Democrats weren't going to lose New York in the electoral college in any scenario, but could a bit of extra oomph and enthusiasm help the several House candidates in New York that Democrats want to win in order to take back the House? Watch for that possibility, too.
posted by gimonca at 5:26 AM on October 30
What More Do You People Want from Kamala Harris?
Her to say hey, maybe we're going to reconsider sending weapons to Israel so that less children get murdered.
Obviously not as important as 'organizing a successful convention' or giving a good speech, but should be up there?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:11 AM on October 30 [5 favorites]
Her to say hey, maybe we're going to reconsider sending weapons to Israel so that less children get murdered.
Obviously not as important as 'organizing a successful convention' or giving a good speech, but should be up there?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:11 AM on October 30 [5 favorites]
Dang, Trump and his people held an all-day racist hoedown promising totalitarian rule and violent retribution and the MSM is really gonna make the last week about Biden is gonna apologize for saying they were "garbage."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:49 AM on October 30 [10 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:49 AM on October 30 [10 favorites]
Local ads vibe: I've seen a couple of Minnesota DFL ads on television for suburban Minnesota House races. It seems like those are new this year, or maybe there are a few more of these ads this cycle? They're on broadcast air time in the Twin Cities market, so they must cost a bit of money. Adding this as a positive thing, I like it when the DFL is proactive instead of reactive or passive.
posted by gimonca at 3:41 AM on October 31 [2 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 3:41 AM on October 31 [2 favorites]
Welp, apparently i can't actually print and mail my mail-in ballot because the printer is out of ink and i can't afford to replace it right now, whee. So i guess i'm not voting after all. :(
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:46 PM on November 3
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:46 PM on November 3
...okay, i just remembered there's a Staples nearby, i can drive there and print it tomorrow.
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:54 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:54 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]
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The amount of current signage is way more than I've ever experienced, though I can't compare this to 2020, since I lived in a ruby red state then. But I was in a swing state in 2016, and I don't recall the presence of the election being quite so visibly pervasive. As soon as early voting started, it went from about a 5 to 10 pretty much overnight. Not just in medium strips and other public areas, but also on people's yards, businesses, etc. I receive at least a few mailers per day from both parties - I could easily cover a full wall in my house with all of what has been stuffed in my mailbox over the last month or so. Some people are volunteering at the downtown bus station to drive anyone to the polls, which I was heartened to see.
posted by coffeecat at 8:09 AM on October 23 [5 favorites]