The Red Mirage, then the Blue Shift.
November 4, 2024 5:40 AM Subscribe
Early voting results in the US tilt Republican, and later voting results tilt Democratic. Part of the reason is Red precincts are less populated, thus faster to count.
YouTube Video from 2020 which correctly predicted that Trump would misrepresent the Red Mirage/Blue Shift effect as a plot against him
The term "Blue Shift" (originally "Big Blue Shift") was coined in this paper by Foley in 2013
YouTube Video from 2020 which correctly predicted that Trump would misrepresent the Red Mirage/Blue Shift effect as a plot against him
The term "Blue Shift" (originally "Big Blue Shift") was coined in this paper by Foley in 2013
Florida, of all places, may be the first indication of how the election is going. It counts all its votes immediately. While Harris is not expected to win Florida, if she comes much closer than expected it might suggest a blue wave.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:07 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:07 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
Does It Matter?
20 years ago I would've said the presentation of poll results could have an impact, in various ways, on the election results.
Now? I have no idea. I actually have no idea how anybody gets any of their information anymore, or whether there is some definable "campaign narrative."
posted by robbyrobs at 6:12 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
20 years ago I would've said the presentation of poll results could have an impact, in various ways, on the election results.
Now? I have no idea. I actually have no idea how anybody gets any of their information anymore, or whether there is some definable "campaign narrative."
posted by robbyrobs at 6:12 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
This episode of The Daily podcast brings the Red Mirage to life by focusing on a county in Arizona where voters fully believe in it.
posted by rageagainsttherobots at 6:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
posted by rageagainsttherobots at 6:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
Speaking of Arizona, Kari Lake is a believer in a different kind of red mirage:
"We're ahead of my opponent, and I feel comfortable with our polling," she insisted. "Our polling is a little different. We take polling, but we also combine it with AI, which reads all of what's happening on social media and across the Internet."
posted by delfin at 6:22 AM on November 4 [20 favorites]
"We're ahead of my opponent, and I feel comfortable with our polling," she insisted. "Our polling is a little different. We take polling, but we also combine it with AI, which reads all of what's happening on social media and across the Internet."
posted by delfin at 6:22 AM on November 4 [20 favorites]
20 years ago I would've said the presentation of poll results could have an impact, in various ways, on the election results.
My understanding is that the post is not about asking people who they did or would vote for, but the actual results of voting.
posted by NotLost at 6:24 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
My understanding is that the post is not about asking people who they did or would vote for, but the actual results of voting.
posted by NotLost at 6:24 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
White knuckling all week, and trying to be extra kind to anyone around me or that I see. People are stressed
posted by glaucon at 6:26 AM on November 4 [24 favorites]
posted by glaucon at 6:26 AM on November 4 [24 favorites]
McSweeney's: Based on Our Election Forecast, We Are 100 Percent Sure Anything Could Fucking Happen
Perhaps Harris wins. Perhaps Trump wins. I am here to tell you with absolute confidence that we exist, like Schrödinger’s cat, in a universe where both have won, and neither has won. If this surprises you, you haven’t been paying attention.
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:40 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
Perhaps Harris wins. Perhaps Trump wins. I am here to tell you with absolute confidence that we exist, like Schrödinger’s cat, in a universe where both have won, and neither has won. If this surprises you, you haven’t been paying attention.
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:40 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
How will US Election Day unfold? (Al Jazeera explainer)
posted by box at 6:48 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
posted by box at 6:48 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
Florida, of all places, may be the first indication of how the election is going. It counts all its votes immediately.
Trump taking FL was the first big indication that we were in trouble in ‘16, IIRC.
posted by non canadian guy at 7:00 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Trump taking FL was the first big indication that we were in trouble in ‘16, IIRC.
posted by non canadian guy at 7:00 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
I live in the brightest red county in a bright red state. Four years ago, you couldn’t walk around my neighborhood, nor drive pretty much anywhere, without feeling like you were at a Trump rally from all the yard signs and flags in the yards, and nary a single Biden sign.
This year, though, the first couple of Trump yard signs appeared in my neighborhood just over the weekend, while there have been plenty of Harris signs in yards practically since she became the nominee. The same seems to be true wherever I drive here. Lots of Harris signs and very few Trump signs.
Dunno what that means, if anything, but it’s definitely odd for this county.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:05 AM on November 4 [45 favorites]
This year, though, the first couple of Trump yard signs appeared in my neighborhood just over the weekend, while there have been plenty of Harris signs in yards practically since she became the nominee. The same seems to be true wherever I drive here. Lots of Harris signs and very few Trump signs.
Dunno what that means, if anything, but it’s definitely odd for this county.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:05 AM on November 4 [45 favorites]
I live in a purple state in a very bright red area and I've seen the same thing about signs. I don't know what it means either but it's super odd here too. I also volunteer in our local Dems office and for the first time ever, we've had Republicans come in asking for signs for the Democratic candidate (Harris of course). I am cautiously optimistic and the recent Iowa poll from Ann Selzer is encouraging. but vote people!
posted by bluesky43 at 7:09 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 7:09 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
Here's an article on the Iowa poll and an interesting article from Nate Silver (I know but this one's worth it) on why the polls are showing what they are. Short story is the polls are juiced because the pollsters don't want to be wrong.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:12 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
posted by bluesky43 at 7:12 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
For President, I'm expecting we'll be waiting on Pennsylvania for several days again, although Arizona and North Carolina might also hold up the final results.
But I'm also concerned about when control of the House will be reported. That might be a repeat of 2022, where we end up waiting many days for California races to come in.
posted by gimonca at 7:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
But I'm also concerned about when control of the House will be reported. That might be a repeat of 2022, where we end up waiting many days for California races to come in.
posted by gimonca at 7:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
Prediction Markets Give Trump a November Surprise
His spread over Harris is vanishing, while Iowa hasn't been under the lights like this since ‘Field of Dreams’
posted by robbyrobs at 7:37 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
His spread over Harris is vanishing, while Iowa hasn't been under the lights like this since ‘Field of Dreams’
posted by robbyrobs at 7:37 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
Gambling on ‘vibes’ — why the betting markets are getting the election all wrong
posted by robbyrobs at 7:38 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 7:38 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
Does It Matter?
I have very compelling (to me) Yes and No responses to this
The fact we are watching Trump run to be president a 2nd/3rd time, just the fact he exists, tells me we are all lost no matter what.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:53 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
I have very compelling (to me) Yes and No responses to this
The fact we are watching Trump run to be president a 2nd/3rd time, just the fact he exists, tells me we are all lost no matter what.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:53 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
Mod note: Tagged as USPolitics as requested above.
posted by loup (staff) at 7:56 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
posted by loup (staff) at 7:56 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
I kind of feel like even if they count early voting results early, they shouldn’t fucking announce them until voting is over, because it causes so much fucking harm.
1. People hearing “their side” winning may not vote because they think it’s in the bag AND may then be suspicious of any “changed” results later
2. People hearing “their side” losing may then rush to the polls, thus skewing election results and causing the other side to cry foul.
It’s a shitshow either way.
posted by corb at 7:56 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]
1. People hearing “their side” winning may not vote because they think it’s in the bag AND may then be suspicious of any “changed” results later
2. People hearing “their side” losing may then rush to the polls, thus skewing election results and causing the other side to cry foul.
It’s a shitshow either way.
posted by corb at 7:56 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]
The fact we are watching Trump run to be president a 2nd/3rd time, just the fact he exists, tells me we are all lost no matter what.
I don't feel particularly lost, in this arena. I think it just means we have inherited a not-very-democratic system and also the Republican Party is evil.
posted by kensington314 at 8:01 AM on November 4 [15 favorites]
I don't feel particularly lost, in this arena. I think it just means we have inherited a not-very-democratic system and also the Republican Party is evil.
posted by kensington314 at 8:01 AM on November 4 [15 favorites]
> People hearing “their side” losing may then rush to the polls, thus skewing election results
That's not skewing anything. That's just valid voting. But surely votes are not counted before the booths are closed?
posted by Too-Ticky at 8:03 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
That's not skewing anything. That's just valid voting. But surely votes are not counted before the booths are closed?
posted by Too-Ticky at 8:03 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
For President, I'm expecting we'll be waiting on Pennsylvania for several days again, although Arizona and North Carolina might also hold up the final results.
Pennsylvania will be one of several states where mail-ins will be counted after Election Night, due to GOP-pushed state laws regarding that. So the result will probably be just as it was in 2020, strongly inferable from early-voting data but not provable until the actual numbers are hammered out.
If networks are running numbers on PA and GA at 8 PM and declaring both likely blue, we can all likely breathe a sigh of moderate relief. If nice surprises like NC or IA start falling into place, ready those cigars.
posted by delfin at 8:03 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
Pennsylvania will be one of several states where mail-ins will be counted after Election Night, due to GOP-pushed state laws regarding that. So the result will probably be just as it was in 2020, strongly inferable from early-voting data but not provable until the actual numbers are hammered out.
If networks are running numbers on PA and GA at 8 PM and declaring both likely blue, we can all likely breathe a sigh of moderate relief. If nice surprises like NC or IA start falling into place, ready those cigars.
posted by delfin at 8:03 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
This graphic is interesting. You can slide the bar to show you what percentage of votes were counted by what hour in 2022. For example, by 9 pm EST, over fifty percent of votes will have been counted in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia and nowhere else.
Even that is a bit deceiving. Some states that are close will have the majority of their vote counted early but, being close, the conclusive votes will not yet be counted.
Finally, there are some states that have reverse effects from the red mirage, blue shift. Some states have all their early voting counted and reported early and then get their election day votes more slowly added.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:04 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Even that is a bit deceiving. Some states that are close will have the majority of their vote counted early but, being close, the conclusive votes will not yet be counted.
Finally, there are some states that have reverse effects from the red mirage, blue shift. Some states have all their early voting counted and reported early and then get their election day votes more slowly added.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:04 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
"The same seems to be true wherever I drive here. Lots of Harris signs and very few Trump signs."
I drove through a few red states last week, and this is what I saw as well. Not nearly as many Trump signs as I'd expected. In overhearing some conversations, I wasn't sensing much enthusiasm for Trump, either. My sense was that outside the hardcore MAGAs, his support was pretty soft.
What that means for election day is anyone's guess. I can picture people sitting this one out.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:09 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
I drove through a few red states last week, and this is what I saw as well. Not nearly as many Trump signs as I'd expected. In overhearing some conversations, I wasn't sensing much enthusiasm for Trump, either. My sense was that outside the hardcore MAGAs, his support was pretty soft.
What that means for election day is anyone's guess. I can picture people sitting this one out.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:09 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
I live in a red area and have seen gobs of tRump signs and very few Harris signs. It's very similar to when 45 was elected. I look at everyone hereabouts with a suspicious eye.
posted by mightshould at 8:23 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
posted by mightshould at 8:23 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
As a resident of Philadelphia who lives spitting distance from the Art Museum, location of tonight's GOTV rally w/ Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, DJ Jazzy Jeff and Oprah, and whose phone is ringing and buzzing off the hook with communiques from well-meaning but apparently wildly disorganized volunteers trying to make sure people know where their polling location is, I am literally counting the seconds until this election is over. I will vote in person tomorrow, buy a cookie or something from one of the bake sales on the way home (or go to a cafe if there are no streetside vendors) and settle in for a long, long day of waiting.
It there's another ballot counting rave down at City Hall like in 2020 I'll for sure go to that, though.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:25 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
It there's another ballot counting rave down at City Hall like in 2020 I'll for sure go to that, though.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:25 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
the first couple of Trump yard signs appeared in my neighborhood just over the weekend,
Could be the grift is sucking all the money out of the fans to pay legal fees instead of paying for advertising.
posted by Mitheral at 8:27 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Could be the grift is sucking all the money out of the fans to pay legal fees instead of paying for advertising.
posted by Mitheral at 8:27 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
The 60 Biggest Villains of the 2024 Election (Discourse Blog)
posted by box at 8:30 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
posted by box at 8:30 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
I waited in line for two hours last week to early vote in Indianapolis and was pleasantly surprised by the mood and general make up of the crowd. A lot of first time voters/twentysomethings/thirtysomethings and a lot of retired folks (absolutely used to seeing retired folks at the polls here.) The retired folks that were directly in front of me and behind me were definitely D's. I will admit that I do currently live in a much bluer area of town than I did in the previous presidential election - I was still surprised by the lack of obvious Trumpers in line. I only spotted one and he was quiet. I also haven't seen very many Trump signs this time when the last time they were just unavoidable. Indiana will still be red but my part will be blue like it usually is. (Last time Indiana went blue was Obama's first run.)
I want to believe that more R's are going to vote for Harris than we know about. There's been a fair amount of chatter online from R's saying that they're voting Harris but I don't know how much of that is going to show in the numbers. The dwindling attendance at Trump events the past couple of weeks has also given me some hope.
The Trump camp has been teeing up "election fraud" for a few weeks now so I reckon there's a good chance for an absolute shitshow from that side if it's close. However, since they've been pushing election fraud for a few weeks it also makes me think they're hearing bad news internally.
Of course, I also fully expect that if Trump loses, his next gambit is going to be that he's not healthy enough to be on trial/go to prison...even though he's been out here talking about how he's the healthiest president that ever was. It's obvious he's not in great health and there's a reason he's sitting on his medical records.
So, basically I have no fucking idea what's actually going to happen but I'm trying to be hopeful and I just hope everyone has a nice day today and tomorrow.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 8:35 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]
I want to believe that more R's are going to vote for Harris than we know about. There's been a fair amount of chatter online from R's saying that they're voting Harris but I don't know how much of that is going to show in the numbers. The dwindling attendance at Trump events the past couple of weeks has also given me some hope.
The Trump camp has been teeing up "election fraud" for a few weeks now so I reckon there's a good chance for an absolute shitshow from that side if it's close. However, since they've been pushing election fraud for a few weeks it also makes me think they're hearing bad news internally.
Of course, I also fully expect that if Trump loses, his next gambit is going to be that he's not healthy enough to be on trial/go to prison...even though he's been out here talking about how he's the healthiest president that ever was. It's obvious he's not in great health and there's a reason he's sitting on his medical records.
So, basically I have no fucking idea what's actually going to happen but I'm trying to be hopeful and I just hope everyone has a nice day today and tomorrow.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 8:35 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]
One thing about Trump signs is that their true believers tend towards being VERY demonstrative. Like, they don't have one sign, they have eight to twenty signs and a flag or three and maybe a big banner so that they can be the most sincere and the Great Trumpkin will rise from their sign patch.
I am seeing the true believers' shows of strength, but I am not seeing the rank-and-file showing enthusiasm this time around. I remain convinced that Trump has not given one new person any reason to vote FOR him, and lots of reasons for people to feel fatigued by his presence and his same-old rhetoric, while Dobbs alone has given new enthusiasm to many ambivalents to come out and vote this time around.
But we will see soon.
posted by delfin at 8:39 AM on November 4 [22 favorites]
I am seeing the true believers' shows of strength, but I am not seeing the rank-and-file showing enthusiasm this time around. I remain convinced that Trump has not given one new person any reason to vote FOR him, and lots of reasons for people to feel fatigued by his presence and his same-old rhetoric, while Dobbs alone has given new enthusiasm to many ambivalents to come out and vote this time around.
But we will see soon.
posted by delfin at 8:39 AM on November 4 [22 favorites]
Of course, I also fully expect that if Trump loses, his next gambit is going to be that he's not healthy enough to be on trial/go to prison...even though he's been out here talking about how he's the healthiest president that ever was. It's obvious he's not in great health and there's a reason he's sitting on his medical records.
At this point, I do not care if Trump goes to prison as long as we can swiftly reach a point where I never have to hear about him again. Bonus points if there's some way to yank Musk's citizenship and add him to that pile.
posted by jzb at 8:40 AM on November 4 [42 favorites]
At this point, I do not care if Trump goes to prison as long as we can swiftly reach a point where I never have to hear about him again. Bonus points if there's some way to yank Musk's citizenship and add him to that pile.
posted by jzb at 8:40 AM on November 4 [42 favorites]
Magic Town is a 1947 film with William Wellman as director and Jimmy Stewart and Jane Wyman (then Ronald Reagan's wife) as stars.
The plot involves a pollster who notes that the town voters predicted every major election, including those with surprise winners. He moves into the town and becomes a sort of polling genius. Then the locals discover his mission and become full of themselves making wild predictions. The most prominent one is "a woman could be president," convincing Jimmy Stewart that the town's opinions are now worthless.
We've come a long way since then and I truly believe that this is the time a woman will win. However, I think the reason that Trump is even close is because of our historic and current misogyny.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:45 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
The plot involves a pollster who notes that the town voters predicted every major election, including those with surprise winners. He moves into the town and becomes a sort of polling genius. Then the locals discover his mission and become full of themselves making wild predictions. The most prominent one is "a woman could be president," convincing Jimmy Stewart that the town's opinions are now worthless.
We've come a long way since then and I truly believe that this is the time a woman will win. However, I think the reason that Trump is even close is because of our historic and current misogyny.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:45 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
Really, polling has historically meant "asking a sampling of the people who usually vote who they are going to vote for this time." Over the last few elections, turnout has been accelerating so rapidly, in fits and starts across both sides, that it's becoming increasingly impossible to account for, really. Add in people who don't want to admit who they are voting for (a big factor with Trump voters, but maybe also happening in 2024 with conservative women who may not want to say they're voting against Trump because of Roe v. Wade) and increased disenfranchisement, neither of which do we have reliable tools to account for, and we really just don't know. We can't and won't, until it's over.
And our best case scenario this time is: Harris wins and the GOP puts the toolkit to work that they've been working on for four years to overturn elections.
It's awful and I hate it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:46 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
And our best case scenario this time is: Harris wins and the GOP puts the toolkit to work that they've been working on for four years to overturn elections.
It's awful and I hate it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:46 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
The Iowa poll I linked to above has senior women moving to Harris 63% to 28%, and independent women backing Harris by a 28 point margin (57% to 29%). The Selzer poll is a very big deal because she isn't juicing her numbers like the bigger polls. Her poll was one of the few (maybe only one?) that showed Iowa support for trump in 2020 by 7% and Trump won Iowa by 8.2%. It's seen as a bell weather. Of course the Harris team says it's a razor thin race, which is what they should be saying to GOTV. It's the only poll I have dared to think about at all but I'm just trying to keep unhopeful cuz 2016.
Anyway, go vote people!
posted by bluesky43 at 8:53 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
Anyway, go vote people!
posted by bluesky43 at 8:53 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
Chin up, people: in addition to the "cat lady" cohort, it appears that we have the dog vote, too: my dog expressing his preference.
Clear eyes, poop bags, can't lose.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:58 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
Clear eyes, poop bags, can't lose.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:58 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
the first couple of Trump yard signs appeared in my neighborhood just over the weekend
In my red red area, the trump gop is advertising signs as half off. That just started this past weekend.
hahahahahahahaha!
posted by bluesky43 at 9:04 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
In my red red area, the trump gop is advertising signs as half off. That just started this past weekend.
hahahahahahahaha!
posted by bluesky43 at 9:04 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
From emptywheel (well known and respected independent journalist Marcy Wheeler) on BlueSky:
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?
Which she followed up with a longer piece of her blog - Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters
posted by soundguy99 at 9:07 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?
Which she followed up with a longer piece of her blog - Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters
posted by soundguy99 at 9:07 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]
538 is making me really, really nervous. I am considering whether I want to even go out in public on Election Day right now.
posted by corb at 9:14 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
posted by corb at 9:14 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
Elections aren't decided by signs, or rallies, but yeah I can confirm that in the San Antonio MAGA suburb I used to live in there's a shocking number of Harris signs up, and not nearly as many Trump signs. You still get the true believers decking their houses out in MAGA gear, but they're the exception.
Maybe it means a lower level of enthusiasm. And it wouldn't take much to tip things our way.
Still, while I devoutly hope that we'll have a fairly normal election in which Harris wins and that's that, I don't think we'll get it.
Trump and the other Republicans are all in on the cheating approach. They're going to clam Trump really won, that hte votes were tainted, and god knows what else. The way Trump and Johnson are talking it sounds as if they have at least a few Republican governors in their pocket and intend to try a contingent election if Trump loses.
I hope i'm wrong.
But we've already had a 63 year old Trump fanatic physically assaulting a 67 year old electon worker after the election worker said he needed to remove his MAGA hat under Texas law right here in San Antonio.
And the firebombs in mail in vote drop off places.
I don't feel reasured either in the odds of Trump losing, or the odds of things going well if by some miracle he does lose.
posted by sotonohito at 9:17 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Maybe it means a lower level of enthusiasm. And it wouldn't take much to tip things our way.
Still, while I devoutly hope that we'll have a fairly normal election in which Harris wins and that's that, I don't think we'll get it.
Trump and the other Republicans are all in on the cheating approach. They're going to clam Trump really won, that hte votes were tainted, and god knows what else. The way Trump and Johnson are talking it sounds as if they have at least a few Republican governors in their pocket and intend to try a contingent election if Trump loses.
I hope i'm wrong.
But we've already had a 63 year old Trump fanatic physically assaulting a 67 year old electon worker after the election worker said he needed to remove his MAGA hat under Texas law right here in San Antonio.
And the firebombs in mail in vote drop off places.
I don't feel reasured either in the odds of Trump losing, or the odds of things going well if by some miracle he does lose.
posted by sotonohito at 9:17 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
538 is making me really, really nervous.
Everything is making me nervous, including that, but not especially that. 538 feels like they've gone off the deep end trying to find adjustments they can make to be 100% right. There are so many suppositions and well actuallys in what they're doing now that I'm back to just treating them as one more opinion.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:25 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Everything is making me nervous, including that, but not especially that. 538 feels like they've gone off the deep end trying to find adjustments they can make to be 100% right. There are so many suppositions and well actuallys in what they're doing now that I'm back to just treating them as one more opinion.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:25 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
For whatever it's worth, just yesterday I watched this fantastic Legal Eagle video about the Red Mirage / Blue Shift effect of 2020 and all the legal bullshit MAGA Rs will attempt to use to whine and fight about results in the coming days/weeks/months.
I, for one, found it comforting to get the full story of 2020, what we are likely to see play out post-Tuesday, and the protections that are still (and/or now post-2020-election) in place to prevent, or at least lessen, the fuckery.
posted by revmitcz at 9:26 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
I, for one, found it comforting to get the full story of 2020, what we are likely to see play out post-Tuesday, and the protections that are still (and/or now post-2020-election) in place to prevent, or at least lessen, the fuckery.
posted by revmitcz at 9:26 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
Chin up, people: in addition to the "cat lady" cohort, it appears that we have the dog vote, too:
MAGA has the squirrel vote, however.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 9:28 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
MAGA has the squirrel vote, however.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 9:28 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
My new job sent out a "nobody discuss politics" email, more or less. "Partisan political activity is prohibited. Partisan political means taking a position in support of or opposition to a party or candidate." This was followed by "don't discuss politics with customers or during meetings or with anyone who doesn't wanna," which, fine by me, but I'm wondering if that just means "don't discuss stuff" or if my childless cat lady stuff at my desk counts. However, I work in the back and nobody sees it but my teammates, so...eh....
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:30 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:30 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
Trump's going to win.
The very fact that even after Trump and Co.'s endless lies and bullshit, after Dobbs, after everything he and his people have said and done it's this close tells me that Trump's going to win. Maybe Trump's support is just that strong, maybe the opposition to him is just that incompetent, maybe both, but it's clear that if he does lose it's going to be by the skin of Harris's teeth which is insane.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
The very fact that even after Trump and Co.'s endless lies and bullshit, after Dobbs, after everything he and his people have said and done it's this close tells me that Trump's going to win. Maybe Trump's support is just that strong, maybe the opposition to him is just that incompetent, maybe both, but it's clear that if he does lose it's going to be by the skin of Harris's teeth which is insane.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
A few weeks ago I drove north from Grand Rapids to walk along a river. In the smaller towns Trump signs are as thick and overlapping as dragon scales but, to torture the metaphor, the dragon appears to be...smaller? than it was in 2016. There may be the same number of signs as in 2016, but they are concentrated in smaller areas. The center of the bell curve is higher, and the edges thinner. I take this to mean there are fewer pro-Trump voices, but those voices are louder. The whole vibe seems to be one of desperation.
Of course nobody up there put out Harris signs, because in rural Michigan that is just asking to get your property vandalized.
posted by JohnFromGR at 9:34 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
Of course nobody up there put out Harris signs, because in rural Michigan that is just asking to get your property vandalized.
posted by JohnFromGR at 9:34 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
FWIW, I drove from DC to Pittsburgh last week, the PA route of which took me past fewer Trump signs than I recall when doing that drive in '16 (though a few of the 5-6 displays I did see were huge and particularly unhinged). I was genuinely expecting large stretches of the Pennsylvania Turnpike to look like the Nuremberg rallies.
Also, the many coal-booster billboards mocking green energy are almost gone now.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:37 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
Also, the many coal-booster billboards mocking green energy are almost gone now.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:37 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
I don't condone this, but in my blue NC suburb I have seen a lot of Trump signs go missing, a Michelle Morrow (R school superintendent) sign that looked like someone chainsawed the top off, and a long line of Trump signs all along a major parkway that had big black Xs spray-painted through them. This is a pretty well-off and uber-civil area too - maybe the local teens are fired up.
Also Dems appear to have a major enthusiasm lead (Gallup) of over 10 points. Note on the graph that current D enthusiasm matches the previous peak of the 2008 Obama election. That's nothing to sneeze at!
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:38 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Also Dems appear to have a major enthusiasm lead (Gallup) of over 10 points. Note on the graph that current D enthusiasm matches the previous peak of the 2008 Obama election. That's nothing to sneeze at!
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:38 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Two other anecdotes:
(1) We drove past a "KAMALA COMMUNISM" sign last week with our college student in the car and she said "HELL YEAH, COMMUNISM!"
(2) Two Fridays ago we planned to vote as a family at the local community center, which meant driving into the small downtown, crossing the train tracks, parking, picking up the kiddo from the train station, then walking another block to the voting spot. We ran into a traffic jam where for over 20 minutes we did not move but could literally see the train station and the voting building two blocks ahead. I got out (wife driving) and walked a block to where a cop was holding traffic, including pedestrians trying to cross the tracks. Dangerous train signal malfunction? Hmm. I wen back and knocked on the car in front of us, which had hateful right-wing stickers, and convinced the lady to turn right so we could turn right and go park elsewhere. We finally parked and walked back the now 5 blocks to the train crossing, where we could now see multiple cops on motorcycles speeding away in a group.
Reader, it was First Lady Jill Biden leaving a local Harris rally at a historic town building near the polling place. We then saw a ton of people walking off with Women for Harris and other signs and shirts. Yes, a surprise HARRIS RALLY was literally blocking us from VOTING FOR HARRIS! Paging Alanis Morrissette ... once the motorcade drove away, we voted with no problem.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:49 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
(1) We drove past a "KAMALA COMMUNISM" sign last week with our college student in the car and she said "HELL YEAH, COMMUNISM!"
(2) Two Fridays ago we planned to vote as a family at the local community center, which meant driving into the small downtown, crossing the train tracks, parking, picking up the kiddo from the train station, then walking another block to the voting spot. We ran into a traffic jam where for over 20 minutes we did not move but could literally see the train station and the voting building two blocks ahead. I got out (wife driving) and walked a block to where a cop was holding traffic, including pedestrians trying to cross the tracks. Dangerous train signal malfunction? Hmm. I wen back and knocked on the car in front of us, which had hateful right-wing stickers, and convinced the lady to turn right so we could turn right and go park elsewhere. We finally parked and walked back the now 5 blocks to the train crossing, where we could now see multiple cops on motorcycles speeding away in a group.
Reader, it was First Lady Jill Biden leaving a local Harris rally at a historic town building near the polling place. We then saw a ton of people walking off with Women for Harris and other signs and shirts. Yes, a surprise HARRIS RALLY was literally blocking us from VOTING FOR HARRIS! Paging Alanis Morrissette ... once the motorcade drove away, we voted with no problem.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:49 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
The very fact that even after Trump and Co.'s endless lies and bullshit, after Dobbs, after everything he and his people have said and done it's this close tells me that Trump's going to win. Either his support among his base is just that strong, or opposition to him is just that incompetent, or both, but it's clear that if he does lose it's going to be by the skin of Harris's teeth, which is insane.
Counterpoint: Trump's base is numerous and possessed of fanatical devotion and/or delusion. But start from here.
We have had one election already in which the Rizzo Effect (which I named for Philadelphia's legendary authoritarian mayor, a Trumpism prototype) took place. Everyone who adores Trump voted FOR Trump. Everyone who hated Trump voted AGAINST Trump. Biden's presence on the ballot was something of an afterthought, more of a placeholder than a real enthusiasm generator -- it was Four More Years versus Get Him The Hell Out Of There. And Get Out won.
What has Trump said or done in the four years since then that would inspire a single person to vote for him who didn't ALSO vote for him in 2016 and 2020?
His campaign has been his Greatest Hits tour, naked bigoted nativism and burn-it-all-down and prosecute-the-media and name-calling. He has his sore-loser court battles and J6 and 30+ felony convictions and a sex offender tag and tons of sound clips making him sound insane on his resume since then. His big MSG rally tossed aside any pretenses of appealing to the mythical middle and instead doubled down on every slur, every threat and every hard-right talking point, and insulted a good chunk of potential voters in the process. Yes, his base ate that up, but his base was already going to vote for him.
Harris has the usual D base and the jesus-christ-don't-let-Trump-in-there-again base from before, plus those alienated by J6, those alienated by Dobbs, those alienated by bigotry and invective, those fatigued by Trump just simply refusing to go away. Large quantities of women are far more motivated than in 2020. Enthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side.
So the math becomes:
(base) + (lots of new women voters) + (more NeverTrumpers for many, many reasons) - (those who consider Gaza disqualifying) - (gas and groceries cost a lot and I specifically blame Democrats for that) - (someone euthanized a squirrel). Still feel like dooming?
America is a fucked-up place at its core. There's no denying that. But sometimes we have our moments.
posted by delfin at 9:51 AM on November 4 [25 favorites]
Counterpoint: Trump's base is numerous and possessed of fanatical devotion and/or delusion. But start from here.
We have had one election already in which the Rizzo Effect (which I named for Philadelphia's legendary authoritarian mayor, a Trumpism prototype) took place. Everyone who adores Trump voted FOR Trump. Everyone who hated Trump voted AGAINST Trump. Biden's presence on the ballot was something of an afterthought, more of a placeholder than a real enthusiasm generator -- it was Four More Years versus Get Him The Hell Out Of There. And Get Out won.
What has Trump said or done in the four years since then that would inspire a single person to vote for him who didn't ALSO vote for him in 2016 and 2020?
His campaign has been his Greatest Hits tour, naked bigoted nativism and burn-it-all-down and prosecute-the-media and name-calling. He has his sore-loser court battles and J6 and 30+ felony convictions and a sex offender tag and tons of sound clips making him sound insane on his resume since then. His big MSG rally tossed aside any pretenses of appealing to the mythical middle and instead doubled down on every slur, every threat and every hard-right talking point, and insulted a good chunk of potential voters in the process. Yes, his base ate that up, but his base was already going to vote for him.
Harris has the usual D base and the jesus-christ-don't-let-Trump-in-there-again base from before, plus those alienated by J6, those alienated by Dobbs, those alienated by bigotry and invective, those fatigued by Trump just simply refusing to go away. Large quantities of women are far more motivated than in 2020. Enthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side.
So the math becomes:
(base) + (lots of new women voters) + (more NeverTrumpers for many, many reasons) - (those who consider Gaza disqualifying) - (gas and groceries cost a lot and I specifically blame Democrats for that) - (someone euthanized a squirrel). Still feel like dooming?
America is a fucked-up place at its core. There's no denying that. But sometimes we have our moments.
posted by delfin at 9:51 AM on November 4 [25 favorites]
We’re having the European experience over here. We’ve faxed in our ballots and gotten notifications that they’ve been received. We’re Florida voters so presumably they’ve already been counted as well.
Election night will be stressful. 7pm on the east coast is 1am here, so it makes sense to just go to bed and see what’s happened in the morning.. but I don’t know if it will actually be possible to put the phone down and get to sleep.
posted by antinomia at 9:52 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
Election night will be stressful. 7pm on the east coast is 1am here, so it makes sense to just go to bed and see what’s happened in the morning.. but I don’t know if it will actually be possible to put the phone down and get to sleep.
posted by antinomia at 9:52 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]
God, the “Kamala Communism” shit is insane. I fucking only wish she were a goddamn communist.
posted by corb at 10:06 AM on November 4 [26 favorites]
posted by corb at 10:06 AM on November 4 [26 favorites]
TFG is closing with some real low-energy rallies so there's that.
posted by mazola at 10:06 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by mazola at 10:06 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]
Whatever Happens, Love Thy Neighbor
between that and the cincinnati.com piece telling people to be compassionate or whatever, i'm just going to place this right by it: apology not accepted, by a.r. moxon.
i get that the writers asking people to appeal to better angels is fine, or whatever, but at this point i just can't get behind it at all. i recall a trans guy some two millennia ago kept preaching to turn the other cheek against the people trying to kill him, and he got nailed to a tree for his troubles.
i don't have that same divinity. if that happens to me i die for good. let them sort it out with their deities, i am going to reclaim my time for more important things, like ensuring people like me don't get murdered by people like them, regardless of who gets elected into the presidency.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:12 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
between that and the cincinnati.com piece telling people to be compassionate or whatever, i'm just going to place this right by it: apology not accepted, by a.r. moxon.
i get that the writers asking people to appeal to better angels is fine, or whatever, but at this point i just can't get behind it at all. i recall a trans guy some two millennia ago kept preaching to turn the other cheek against the people trying to kill him, and he got nailed to a tree for his troubles.
i don't have that same divinity. if that happens to me i die for good. let them sort it out with their deities, i am going to reclaim my time for more important things, like ensuring people like me don't get murdered by people like them, regardless of who gets elected into the presidency.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:12 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
Fear and division are the hallmarks of a wanna-be dictator. It's Dictator 101 - don't fall for it.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:15 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 10:15 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
k.
you do you. i just don't care to be lectured to be compassionate or whatever to people who want to see me dead. it's not fear or division.
it's indifference. let them sort their feelings out--without me--when facts turn out to prove them wrong as usual.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:18 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
you do you. i just don't care to be lectured to be compassionate or whatever to people who want to see me dead. it's not fear or division.
it's indifference. let them sort their feelings out--without me--when facts turn out to prove them wrong as usual.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:18 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]
I wasn't advocating compassion. and I certainly wasn't lecturing. so there's that.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:19 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
posted by bluesky43 at 10:19 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]
The one guy who walks around the St. Paul skyways in a MAGA hat has, as of today, switched to a PBR trucker hat. So feel free to factor that in.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:20 AM on November 4 [27 favorites]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:20 AM on November 4 [27 favorites]
Trump's going to win.
While that's been my gear for months, the early voting turnout and the enormous gender gap has changed my mind. I don't think it will be a blowout, but I think it will be a solid victory for Harris. The EC is still a little scary, but if she really has flipped Iowa, that's huge.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:22 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
While that's been my gear for months, the early voting turnout and the enormous gender gap has changed my mind. I don't think it will be a blowout, but I think it will be a solid victory for Harris. The EC is still a little scary, but if she really has flipped Iowa, that's huge.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:22 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
Still feel like dooming?
delfin
Yes, and I genuinely think it's harmful to discussion on this site to characterize possible outcomes you don't like as "dooming". Burying your head in the sand isn't going to change reality.
Biden barely won in 2020. Four years later, even after Dobbs, even if we agree that (as you put it) "[e][nthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side", another squeaker where Harris barely gets over the finish line in a neck-and-neck race is apparently the best that can be mustered against Trump?
I'm glad you remain optimistic.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:24 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
delfin
Yes, and I genuinely think it's harmful to discussion on this site to characterize possible outcomes you don't like as "dooming". Burying your head in the sand isn't going to change reality.
Biden barely won in 2020. Four years later, even after Dobbs, even if we agree that (as you put it) "[e][nthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side", another squeaker where Harris barely gets over the finish line in a neck-and-neck race is apparently the best that can be mustered against Trump?
I'm glad you remain optimistic.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:24 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
If Harris wins and doesn’t immediately begin using the full weight of federal law enforcement to spear Trump and his enablers through the guts repeatedly, that’s it and I give up. We are never going to be free if these ghouls until some big names are doing long terms.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:26 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 10:26 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]
The very fact that even after Trump and Co.'s endless lies and bullshit, after Dobbs, after everything he and his people have said and done it's this close tells me that Trump's going to win.
Counterpoint:
*It's not actually that close at all and pollsters are saying it's close to cover their asses just in case he does win.
*Trump is not actually likely to win, (some) company CEOs are betting on Trump because IF he does win, he'll remember who didn't support him, and they're hedging their bets.
*The odds do not favor Trump at all, asshole gamblers only think they do because they are surrounded by other asshole gamblers.
posted by subdee at 10:33 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
Counterpoint:
*It's not actually that close at all and pollsters are saying it's close to cover their asses just in case he does win.
*Trump is not actually likely to win, (some) company CEOs are betting on Trump because IF he does win, he'll remember who didn't support him, and they're hedging their bets.
*The odds do not favor Trump at all, asshole gamblers only think they do because they are surrounded by other asshole gamblers.
posted by subdee at 10:33 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]
If you're going to use social media vibes to predict the outcome of the election, what about the social media vibe where outside the rightwing echo chamber, the main response to the first Trump assassination attempt was WHY DID HE MISS.
posted by subdee at 10:36 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
posted by subdee at 10:36 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Biden barely won in 2020. Four years later, even after Dobbs, even if we agree that (as you put it) "[e][nthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side", another squeaker where Harris barely gets over the finish line in a neck-and-neck race is apparently the best that can be mustered against Trump?
Biden "barely" won due to an anachronistic, thumb-on-the-scale, system and that's after all of the shenanigans that the GOP employed to blunt election turnout by Dems. He racked up about 7 million more votes than Trump, which I think is worth remembering. Things are dire, but I think it's worth remembering that the slim victories don't really reflect people's attitudes so much as the reality that one party has done a really good job of using every trick it can muster to try to suppress votes.
posted by jzb at 10:38 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
Biden "barely" won due to an anachronistic, thumb-on-the-scale, system and that's after all of the shenanigans that the GOP employed to blunt election turnout by Dems. He racked up about 7 million more votes than Trump, which I think is worth remembering. Things are dire, but I think it's worth remembering that the slim victories don't really reflect people's attitudes so much as the reality that one party has done a really good job of using every trick it can muster to try to suppress votes.
posted by jzb at 10:38 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]
Do you guys remember when Trump tried to hamstring the entire US postal system so the mail-in ballots wouldn't arrive in time to be counted.
Although, playing devil's advocate , Ds won a ton of court cases in 2020 to expand voter access (vote by mail, early voting, etc) on the basis of safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lot of those gains HAVE been clawed back by counter-lawsuits by Rs in the last four years to make voting more difficult and restrictive again.
posted by subdee at 10:45 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
Although, playing devil's advocate , Ds won a ton of court cases in 2020 to expand voter access (vote by mail, early voting, etc) on the basis of safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lot of those gains HAVE been clawed back by counter-lawsuits by Rs in the last four years to make voting more difficult and restrictive again.
posted by subdee at 10:45 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
It's not actually that close at all and pollsters are saying it's close to cover their asses just in case he does win.
subdee
I guess we'll see. If you're right, Harris wins, and it's not a close victory but the mythical Blue Wave I'll happily admit I was wrong. The funny thing is, though, that I hear the exact same thing from people on the right, that it's actually going to be a Reagan-esque red landslide and the mainstream media is trying to hide this truth. Again, guess we'll see.
Biden "barely" won due to an anachronistic, thumb-on-the-scale, system
jzb
Yeah, but that's the currently-existing system that this election is using. I agree that the Electoral College needs to go, but for now it's here. It's kind of amazing to me that people are still whining about this in 2024. You fight to win in the system you have. Until it's changed complaining about it achieves nothing. The Republicans get this and fight for every advantage they can so they can win the maximum possible EV votes. It's alarming that the Dems still don't seem to get it.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:47 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
subdee
I guess we'll see. If you're right, Harris wins, and it's not a close victory but the mythical Blue Wave I'll happily admit I was wrong. The funny thing is, though, that I hear the exact same thing from people on the right, that it's actually going to be a Reagan-esque red landslide and the mainstream media is trying to hide this truth. Again, guess we'll see.
Biden "barely" won due to an anachronistic, thumb-on-the-scale, system
jzb
Yeah, but that's the currently-existing system that this election is using. I agree that the Electoral College needs to go, but for now it's here. It's kind of amazing to me that people are still whining about this in 2024. You fight to win in the system you have. Until it's changed complaining about it achieves nothing. The Republicans get this and fight for every advantage they can so they can win the maximum possible EV votes. It's alarming that the Dems still don't seem to get it.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:47 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
You know, movie theaters should promote some great escapist movie (The Great Escape?) for election nights so that people can be sealed off in the dark for two to three hours while early results come in. I would go there.
I suppose I could pop in a DVD but there would be so much temptation to check.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:49 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
I suppose I could pop in a DVD but there would be so much temptation to check.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:49 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]
Kids in math class today asking who I am voting for, surprised my answer is Trump.
I said, why would you vote for him? He's a criminal, a loser, and a moron, and his entire economic platform is to blame immigrants for everything wrong with the economy, deport as many people as possible, impose tariffs which will make the cost of everything go up, and drill for more oil. Those are his only ideas!!!
Them: Wait, who's going to deport people?
Me: Trump.
Them: (surprised) Wasn't it Harris who was going to do that?
The school is >60% first or second-gen immigrants, they aren't wrong that Harris also wants a "strong border" but no she is not seeking mass deportations of people already in the country like Trump is.
Anyway, they said they'd think about what I told them.
posted by subdee at 10:53 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
I said, why would you vote for him? He's a criminal, a loser, and a moron, and his entire economic platform is to blame immigrants for everything wrong with the economy, deport as many people as possible, impose tariffs which will make the cost of everything go up, and drill for more oil. Those are his only ideas!!!
Them: Wait, who's going to deport people?
Me: Trump.
Them: (surprised) Wasn't it Harris who was going to do that?
The school is >60% first or second-gen immigrants, they aren't wrong that Harris also wants a "strong border" but no she is not seeking mass deportations of people already in the country like Trump is.
Anyway, they said they'd think about what I told them.
posted by subdee at 10:53 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
subdee, I had to read that first line several times to figure out that you weren't saying that you were voting for Trump.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:08 AM on November 4 [27 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:08 AM on November 4 [27 favorites]
I don't actually think Harris is likely to win in a squeaker. I don't think Trump is likely to win in a squeaker.
I think the polling variance is likely to be universal, say, 3-4.5 points in one direction or the other.
So I'm figuring Harris with 300+ electoral votes and strong (though still not winning) showing in a few safe red states (FL, TX) or Trump with 300+ electoral votes and a total collapse of the blue wall and complete Dem failures in every other swing state.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:11 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]
I think the polling variance is likely to be universal, say, 3-4.5 points in one direction or the other.
So I'm figuring Harris with 300+ electoral votes and strong (though still not winning) showing in a few safe red states (FL, TX) or Trump with 300+ electoral votes and a total collapse of the blue wall and complete Dem failures in every other swing state.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:11 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]
LMAO: Elon Musk lawyer says $1 mln voter giveaway winners are not random: "We just heard this guy say, my boss, my client, called this random," Summers said. "We promised people that they were going to participate in a random process, but it's a process where we pre-select people."
At least Musk's criminal Pennsylvania GOTV operation continues to help alienate everyone involved in it... I don't think it offsets his using the bloated, fetid carcass of Twitter for disinformation, but I'll take what I can get. Hopefully the sweepstakes officials will take him to the cleaners.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 11:14 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
At least Musk's criminal Pennsylvania GOTV operation continues to help alienate everyone involved in it... I don't think it offsets his using the bloated, fetid carcass of Twitter for disinformation, but I'll take what I can get. Hopefully the sweepstakes officials will take him to the cleaners.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 11:14 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
If we want to look at the way the world is going as we try to read tea leaves, the Moldovans re-elected the pro-Western president instead of the pro-Russian puppet.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:21 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:21 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]
jzb the thing is though, that same anachronistic thumb on the scales system is still there.
And still throwing advantage to Trump.
It doesn't matter if Harris wins the popular vote by 20 million, if Trump gets a majority of one single vote in just a handful of states then he will be President again.
So yeah, I don't think it's foolish to think he's got a pretty damn good chance of winning. I hope I'm wrong. I really hope I'm wrong.
And worse, they've still got some legal cards to play even if Harris does win the EC.
The fact is, we do only outnumber them by a few million, and they have the weight of the Constitution tipping the scales their direction.
It's going to be close and there is absolutely no guarantee that Harris will be seated even if she wins both the popular vote and the EC vote, and Trumpers may resort to violence either way.
If there is violence, it isn't going to be state vs state, or rural vs urban or even ex/sub- urban vs urban.
It's going to be like the Rwanda genocide: gangs of Trumpers murdeirng people based on their belief that the victim they choose is a Harirs voter. And counterviolence against that. I really fucking hope it doesn't go that way, because I'm an out of shape late middle age guy and not even slightly equipped to play action hero and face down a gang of murder crazed Trumpers.
posted by sotonohito at 11:26 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
And still throwing advantage to Trump.
It doesn't matter if Harris wins the popular vote by 20 million, if Trump gets a majority of one single vote in just a handful of states then he will be President again.
So yeah, I don't think it's foolish to think he's got a pretty damn good chance of winning. I hope I'm wrong. I really hope I'm wrong.
And worse, they've still got some legal cards to play even if Harris does win the EC.
The fact is, we do only outnumber them by a few million, and they have the weight of the Constitution tipping the scales their direction.
It's going to be close and there is absolutely no guarantee that Harris will be seated even if she wins both the popular vote and the EC vote, and Trumpers may resort to violence either way.
If there is violence, it isn't going to be state vs state, or rural vs urban or even ex/sub- urban vs urban.
It's going to be like the Rwanda genocide: gangs of Trumpers murdeirng people based on their belief that the victim they choose is a Harirs voter. And counterviolence against that. I really fucking hope it doesn't go that way, because I'm an out of shape late middle age guy and not even slightly equipped to play action hero and face down a gang of murder crazed Trumpers.
posted by sotonohito at 11:26 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
I am hoping that it will help this time that the levers that a defeated, wasn't-currently-in-power ex-POTUS and his party/court/sycophants can pull to challenge an election are weaker than the ones they were able to pull behind the sitting administration of the President of the United States. I understand that they will be acting more in unison this time and with practice and planning. But the momentum they will be up against would be far greater, one would hope.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]
You know things are going sideways when your defense against running an illegal lottery is the results aren't random.
posted by Mitheral at 11:36 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
A lawyer for Elon Musk ‘s political action committee told a judge in Philadelphia on Monday that so-called “winners” of his $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes in swing states are not chosen by chance but are instead chosen to be paid “spokespeople” for the group.I am going to laugh my ass off if Musk, the world's richest man, spends even a day in jail for running an illegal lottery. Talk about your own goals. Just the amount of time, the only thing that Musk can't buy, that he would have to spend it court would make the charges worth it.
[...]
“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” Gober said Monday. “We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”
[...]
Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner has said he could still consider criminal charges, as he’s tasked with protecting both lotteries and the integrity of elections. In the lawsuit, he said the defendants are “indisputably violating” Pennsylvania’s lottery laws.
posted by Mitheral at 11:36 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]
I'll take this with a grain of salt, but I think this is a pretty positive sign, if true:
Internal email: Trump campaign prepares for either outcome - "Behind the bluster, former President Trump's campaign is preparing staff members to wind down the operation while privately acknowledging that Trump could lose Tuesday's election."
Clearly it won't stop their plans to try to overthrow the election but it is nice to see that they aren't sure that he will win even with all of their nefarious actions.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 11:41 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
Internal email: Trump campaign prepares for either outcome - "Behind the bluster, former President Trump's campaign is preparing staff members to wind down the operation while privately acknowledging that Trump could lose Tuesday's election."
Clearly it won't stop their plans to try to overthrow the election but it is nice to see that they aren't sure that he will win even with all of their nefarious actions.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 11:41 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]
Biden barely won in 2020. Four years later, even after Dobbs, even if we agree that (as you put it) "[e][nthusiasm and momentum appear to be on her side", another squeaker where Harris barely gets over the finish line in a neck-and-neck race is apparently the best that can be mustered against Trump?
If you're asking "Shouldn't America be a place in which the masses recognize fraud, deception, lies, cheating, criminality, gross mischaracterizations, racial and ethnic and religious bigotry, hypocrisy, and disdain for basic human values and reject their purveyors outright by an overwhelming majority?"
Sure, it SHOULD be. But this is America. America has never been that place and likely never will be that place.
We are a fledgling nation founded on lofty ideals (freedoms, life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, justice for all, all men are created equal, inalienable rights, yadda yadda) that only got around to granting and protecting some of those rights for more than half of its population starting 180 years into its 240ish-year history as a sovereign nation.
Harris is fighting an uphill battle against a segregated multimedia engine that has spent decades brainwashing and deluding millions of Americans, against corporate and extremely wealthy interests who never met a tax cut or deregulation they didn't approve of and provide support accordingly, against racist and sexist prejudices, against a 'mainstream' media that magnifies left-of-center flaws and gaffes but allows the hard right to be taken seriously due to fear of retaliation if they don't, against systems that have demonstrably allowed the powerful and influential to break laws and engage in criminal behavior with relative impunity, and against expectations that (as was said of Ginger Rogers) she has to do everything a male candidate would have done, but backwards and in high heels.
So, yes -- that might be the best that can be mustered under these circumstances, in this culture, in these systems, and with these degrees of dysfunction. That is far more of an indictment of America than of Harris. But it doesn't mean that the bad guys win in America ALL of the time.
It's going to be like the Rwanda genocide: gangs of Trumpers murdering people based on their belief that the victim they choose is a Harris voter. And counterviolence against that. I really fucking hope it doesn't go that way, because I'm an out of shape late middle age guy and not even slightly equipped to play action hero and face down a gang of murder crazed Trumpers.
Delfin's First Law of Terrorism:
Those who are sufficiently extreme to desire to inflict death, destruction and mayhem on a populace are rarely stable or sane enough to pull it off successfully.
Jello's First Law of Rioting:
There's more of us... but who goes first?
I do not expect a full-fledged civil war OR roving death squads in the wake of a Harris election. I do expect violent outbursts, because we are a violent and unstable and heavily-armed nation, and how those are responded to will go a long way to determine how many more there will be.
There is a subcurrent out there of people who keep asking "when do we get to use the guns?" with respect to perceived Democratic Tyranny. One of the saving graces there is that without an authority driving them forward with continuing and explicit orders or a mob at their back, few have the nerve or drive to initiate outright violence or to keep it going. (Kind of like how J6 started as a very violent uprising but fizzled somewhat for many who got inside... as they wandered around wondering "...Now what?" because there was no coordination beyond that opening smash-our-way-in stage.)
I saw someone note that if there is sustained violence, it would resemble The Troubles in NI far more than a state-against-state civil war. I agree wholeheartedly. The trick is going to be to squash any fledgling first attempts to make it very clear that those dreams of armed rebellion are EXTREMELY damn-fool thoughts to so much as entertain.
posted by delfin at 11:43 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]
If you're asking "Shouldn't America be a place in which the masses recognize fraud, deception, lies, cheating, criminality, gross mischaracterizations, racial and ethnic and religious bigotry, hypocrisy, and disdain for basic human values and reject their purveyors outright by an overwhelming majority?"
Sure, it SHOULD be. But this is America. America has never been that place and likely never will be that place.
We are a fledgling nation founded on lofty ideals (freedoms, life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, justice for all, all men are created equal, inalienable rights, yadda yadda) that only got around to granting and protecting some of those rights for more than half of its population starting 180 years into its 240ish-year history as a sovereign nation.
Harris is fighting an uphill battle against a segregated multimedia engine that has spent decades brainwashing and deluding millions of Americans, against corporate and extremely wealthy interests who never met a tax cut or deregulation they didn't approve of and provide support accordingly, against racist and sexist prejudices, against a 'mainstream' media that magnifies left-of-center flaws and gaffes but allows the hard right to be taken seriously due to fear of retaliation if they don't, against systems that have demonstrably allowed the powerful and influential to break laws and engage in criminal behavior with relative impunity, and against expectations that (as was said of Ginger Rogers) she has to do everything a male candidate would have done, but backwards and in high heels.
So, yes -- that might be the best that can be mustered under these circumstances, in this culture, in these systems, and with these degrees of dysfunction. That is far more of an indictment of America than of Harris. But it doesn't mean that the bad guys win in America ALL of the time.
It's going to be like the Rwanda genocide: gangs of Trumpers murdering people based on their belief that the victim they choose is a Harris voter. And counterviolence against that. I really fucking hope it doesn't go that way, because I'm an out of shape late middle age guy and not even slightly equipped to play action hero and face down a gang of murder crazed Trumpers.
Delfin's First Law of Terrorism:
Those who are sufficiently extreme to desire to inflict death, destruction and mayhem on a populace are rarely stable or sane enough to pull it off successfully.
Jello's First Law of Rioting:
There's more of us... but who goes first?
I do not expect a full-fledged civil war OR roving death squads in the wake of a Harris election. I do expect violent outbursts, because we are a violent and unstable and heavily-armed nation, and how those are responded to will go a long way to determine how many more there will be.
There is a subcurrent out there of people who keep asking "when do we get to use the guns?" with respect to perceived Democratic Tyranny. One of the saving graces there is that without an authority driving them forward with continuing and explicit orders or a mob at their back, few have the nerve or drive to initiate outright violence or to keep it going. (Kind of like how J6 started as a very violent uprising but fizzled somewhat for many who got inside... as they wandered around wondering "...Now what?" because there was no coordination beyond that opening smash-our-way-in stage.)
I saw someone note that if there is sustained violence, it would resemble The Troubles in NI far more than a state-against-state civil war. I agree wholeheartedly. The trick is going to be to squash any fledgling first attempts to make it very clear that those dreams of armed rebellion are EXTREMELY damn-fool thoughts to so much as entertain.
posted by delfin at 11:43 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]
I don't condone this, but in my blue NC suburb I have seen a lot of Trump signs go missing, a Michelle Morrow (R school superintendent) sign that looked like someone chainsawed the top off, and a long line of Trump signs all along a major parkway that had big black Xs spray-painted through them. This is a pretty well-off and uber-civil area too - maybe the local teens are fired up.
Yo, caviar2d2, are you in Orange County? I just got back from vacation Friday night and noticed all the Trump signs on Fordham were gone. But when voting at the Library, there was a big
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:46 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
Yo, caviar2d2, are you in Orange County? I just got back from vacation Friday night and noticed all the Trump signs on Fordham were gone. But when voting at the Library, there was a big
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:46 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]
We are a fledgling nation
No. The USA is one of the oldest continuous governments on Earth, and the oldest democracy in the world.
I also get annoyed, as a Canadian, when we refer to ourselves as a young nation as that is not true if you consider continual, uninterrupted governance. The 20th century had too much upheaval, so we are one of the elder governments.
posted by fimbulvetr at 11:53 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
No. The USA is one of the oldest continuous governments on Earth, and the oldest democracy in the world.
I also get annoyed, as a Canadian, when we refer to ourselves as a young nation as that is not true if you consider continual, uninterrupted governance. The 20th century had too much upheaval, so we are one of the elder governments.
posted by fimbulvetr at 11:53 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]
It's alarming that the Dems still don't seem to get it
Pretty sure institutional Democrats do get it (that the battle is for the EC) though.
Florida, of all places, may be the first indication of how the election is going. It counts all its votes immediately. While Harris is not expected to win Florida, if she comes much closer than expected it might suggest a blue wave.
Is Florida really a barometer state like this anymore? Another possibility that various polling gurus have raised is that a red shift in essentially uncontested states could make Trump look strong in national polls without reflecting strength in the states that end up mattering. So I dunno.
posted by atoxyl at 12:03 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
Pretty sure institutional Democrats do get it (that the battle is for the EC) though.
Florida, of all places, may be the first indication of how the election is going. It counts all its votes immediately. While Harris is not expected to win Florida, if she comes much closer than expected it might suggest a blue wave.
Is Florida really a barometer state like this anymore? Another possibility that various polling gurus have raised is that a red shift in essentially uncontested states could make Trump look strong in national polls without reflecting strength in the states that end up mattering. So I dunno.
posted by atoxyl at 12:03 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
HBO let John Oliver put his show up before Thursday today.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:07 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:07 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
The New York Times Tech Guild is on strike: One day before the US Presidential election, the famed newspaper’s tech backend is without its workers.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:08 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:08 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
And have asked people not to play the NYT games or the recipe site.
posted by aleph at 1:19 PM on November 4 [2 favorites]
posted by aleph at 1:19 PM on November 4 [2 favorites]
outside the rightwing echo chamber, the main response to the first Trump assassination attempt was WHY DID HE MISS.
"Juuuuust a bit outside."
"Missed it by that much."
posted by kirkaracha at 1:44 PM on November 4
"Juuuuust a bit outside."
"Missed it by that much."
posted by kirkaracha at 1:44 PM on November 4
I am going to laugh my ass off if Musk, the world's richest man, spends even a day in jail
Every judge in any criminal case affecting Musk should be reminded that no monetary fine under the law has the power to affect his behavior, given his ungodly wealth, and so any jail time permitted in the sentencing rules should be the first choice.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:24 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
Every judge in any criminal case affecting Musk should be reminded that no monetary fine under the law has the power to affect his behavior, given his ungodly wealth, and so any jail time permitted in the sentencing rules should be the first choice.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:24 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
The Trump campaign's closing message: we'll make your life hell (Vanity Fair via archive.is)
posted by box at 2:26 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by box at 2:26 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
I just got back from vacation Friday night and noticed all the Trump signs on Fordham were gone. But when voting at the Library, there was a big
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:46 AM on November 4 [1 favorite +] [⚑]
Oh dear . . . it seems that now "TheKaijuCommuter" has ALSO gone missing!
posted by Kibbutz at 2:29 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:46 AM on November 4 [1 favorite +] [⚑]
Oh dear . . . it seems that now "TheKaijuCommuter" has ALSO gone missing!
posted by Kibbutz at 2:29 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
The Trump campaign will make our lives hell no matter what.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:34 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:34 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
that "love thy neighbour" thing upthread is from the Free Press, which was started by Bari Weiss and features garbage like this. can we not?
posted by busted_crayons at 2:40 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
posted by busted_crayons at 2:40 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Oh dear . . . it seems that now "TheKaijuCommuter" has ALSO gone missing!
The slithery-dee,posted by rochrobbb at 2:51 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
he came out of the sea.
He ate all the others,
but he didn't eat--
SL-U-R-P...
I waited in line for two hours last week to early vote in Indianapolis
This is not normal by international standards. American elections are poorly organized in a deliberate attempt to suppress turnout. For comparison, I waited in line for zero minutes to early vote in the recent BC, Canada election.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:52 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
This is not normal by international standards. American elections are poorly organized in a deliberate attempt to suppress turnout. For comparison, I waited in line for zero minutes to early vote in the recent BC, Canada election.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:52 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
To be fair we had a single choice to make, Americans often have several or even dozens of different races to mark choices for.
posted by Mitheral at 4:02 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 4:02 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
We do, yes.i had I think 23 things/people to pick. But when I early voted in a white and moderately well off part of San Antonio the wait was only 5 or 7 minutes.
When I lived in the poor and Black end of Amarillo TX the wait often exceeded an hour.
It's malicious.
posted by sotonohito at 4:15 PM on November 4 [22 favorites]
When I lived in the poor and Black end of Amarillo TX the wait often exceeded an hour.
It's malicious.
posted by sotonohito at 4:15 PM on November 4 [22 favorites]
This summer while driving through farm country, I noticed a few TRUMP / PENCE signs that had the PE blacked out with sharpie or maybe overwritten to change it to VANCE (couldn't tell on the blue background driving by at speed). I've been wondering ever since what to make of these people who apparently felt strongly enough about the VP to try to update it, but not strongly enough to just buy a new sign.
posted by gueneverey at 4:37 PM on November 4 [7 favorites]
posted by gueneverey at 4:37 PM on November 4 [7 favorites]
I am calling for Kamala tonight. We finished the Arizona list. I tried to move on to the Nevada list, but apparently too many people were also trying, tying up the phone line. So now I am on a bit of a break.
posted by NotLost at 4:53 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 4:53 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
I went down to the parkway here in Philly to take a gander at the goings-on and, well, the line to get in is mind-bogglingly long. Friends of ours have been in line for 3 hours and are not yet in. They even sent someone to Whole Foods to get beer and bring it back to them, is how long this line is. I'm glad to be at home and getting updates from the field, rather than in the field giving updates.
posted by grumpybear69 at 5:22 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by grumpybear69 at 5:22 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
There is a lady in the neighborhood who has a sculpture of Anubis in her yard and she decorates it with fun things. I've always liked it.
Today, it has a Trump sign and I hate her and Anubis now. I'm so disappointed.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:36 PM on November 4 [10 favorites]
Today, it has a Trump sign and I hate her and Anubis now. I'm so disappointed.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:36 PM on November 4 [10 favorites]
Her heart will be weighed against a feather in the afterlife, and it will sink like lead.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:46 PM on November 4 [34 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:46 PM on November 4 [34 favorites]
It's almost 2 AM here in London and I really should be asleep-- a piano guy is coming to use my practice room tomorrow morning. Then in the afternoon, I'm entertaining an historian with a tendency to doom-and-gloom. After that another pianist, and THEN I have the evening to myself, hopefully with an emotional support curry.
Meaningful results won't be in till it's about 2AM here. I probably won't sleep much tomorrow night either. I intend to intend to sleep, but I can feel the insomnia from here, like an approaching weather front.
Primal screaming in my head. Ignoring it and moving through life.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:58 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
Meaningful results won't be in till it's about 2AM here. I probably won't sleep much tomorrow night either. I intend to intend to sleep, but I can feel the insomnia from here, like an approaching weather front.
Primal screaming in my head. Ignoring it and moving through life.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:58 PM on November 4 [9 favorites]
Metafilter: emotional support curry.
posted by sammyo at 6:12 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 6:12 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
We are a fledgling nation
Americans love saying this for some reason, but it isn't actually true. The USA is the oldest of the 34 sovereign states in the Americas, and there are a total of 175 sovereign states whose sovereignty is of a more recent date. The USA is only a "fledgling nation" compared to a handful of countries that have existed with their present borders for a very long time, like Japan and China. And most older states have more recent constitutions.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:12 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
Americans love saying this for some reason, but it isn't actually true. The USA is the oldest of the 34 sovereign states in the Americas, and there are a total of 175 sovereign states whose sovereignty is of a more recent date. The USA is only a "fledgling nation" compared to a handful of countries that have existed with their present borders for a very long time, like Japan and China. And most older states have more recent constitutions.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:12 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
'merican here. Full fledged doodle dandy, was just in Italy, now that country has had a few adjustments in boarder since Caesar and all but you can't not walk on bricks that were laid well before that wicked dude Columbus was born. Heck some of us may have met civil war veterans. We're all newbies here.
posted by sammyo at 6:19 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 6:19 PM on November 4 [1 favorite]
Italy, as a nation, is almost 100 years younger than us. On our land people lived and built societies and cultures for 10s of thousands of years before we arrived, they just weren’t white, (and we did our damnest to erase them from the earth)
posted by dis_integration at 6:22 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:22 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
...these people who apparently felt strongly enough about the VP to try to update it, but not strongly enough to just buy a new sign.
The only house in my neighborhood with a Trump sign made a "4" out of tape and put it next to the "2020" on their recycled sign -- threatening us with 18,000 more years of MAGA, suggesting that Trump is Cthulhu.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:40 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
The only house in my neighborhood with a Trump sign made a "4" out of tape and put it next to the "2020" on their recycled sign -- threatening us with 18,000 more years of MAGA, suggesting that Trump is Cthulhu.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:40 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
This is not normal by international standards. American elections are poorly organized in a deliberate attempt to suppress turnout. For comparison, I waited in line for zero minutes to early vote in the recent BC, Canada election.
I don't know what the situation is elsewhere but I know in Central Indiana the problem was that they didn't expect the huge early voter turnout and so most of the locations needed more voting machines and more workers. But also, I did have about 40 things on my ballot. The people working the polls were fantastic.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:52 PM on November 4 [5 favorites]
I don't know what the situation is elsewhere but I know in Central Indiana the problem was that they didn't expect the huge early voter turnout and so most of the locations needed more voting machines and more workers. But also, I did have about 40 things on my ballot. The people working the polls were fantastic.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:52 PM on November 4 [5 favorites]
The 'love thy neighbor' article caught my attention too. My parents moved out to Trump country years ago, and their neighbors do seem amiable. To my respectable WASPy cishet parents. Some leeway is extended to me as the visiting child of respectable people - but I think if I moved to a similar place myself, it wouldn't go well.
Speaking of neighbors, one of mine does have a Sharpied Pence sign, but did eventually add a Trump/Vance sign.
On the way home today, I saw a gray-haired white man on an overpass with a little campaign sign, and thought 'oh no' - but when traffic inched up, I could read 'Colin Allred'. Looked like he was taking a selfie with either the city skyline or the traffic.
posted by mersen at 7:14 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Speaking of neighbors, one of mine does have a Sharpied Pence sign, but did eventually add a Trump/Vance sign.
On the way home today, I saw a gray-haired white man on an overpass with a little campaign sign, and thought 'oh no' - but when traffic inched up, I could read 'Colin Allred'. Looked like he was taking a selfie with either the city skyline or the traffic.
posted by mersen at 7:14 PM on November 4 [8 favorites]
Lol, Kibbutz, thanks for looking out for me. I seem to have fallen in a hole!
What I meant to say was that when we went to early vote at the library on Saturday, there was a table there with a big "ASIAN MAGA" sign. Aside from them and the grumpy guy who sits at the roundabout with a body cam and Trump/"climate change is fake" signs hoping for a fight, all of the Trump stuff around town seems to have evaporated.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:28 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
What I meant to say was that when we went to early vote at the library on Saturday, there was a table there with a big "ASIAN MAGA" sign. Aside from them and the grumpy guy who sits at the roundabout with a body cam and Trump/"climate change is fake" signs hoping for a fight, all of the Trump stuff around town seems to have evaporated.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:28 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
The few demographic studies of past polls 16--22 that I've skimmed over, seem to indicate that the Democratic ticket has always banked on broad coalitions and the R's strength derives from their "core". That is what gives me hope, because there's an upper limit on how white, how male, and how old that core can get.
posted by runcifex at 8:07 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by runcifex at 8:07 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
Americans love saying this for some reason, but it isn't actually true. The USA is the oldest of the 34 sovereign states in the Americas, and there are a total of 175 sovereign states whose sovereignty is of a more recent date. The USA is only a "fledgling nation" compared to a handful of countries that have existed with their present borders for a very long time, like Japan and China. And most older states have more recent constitutions.
The America that I recognize as America -- one that began the slow, laborious process of holding up those lofty ideals of the Founders (Liberty and justice for all! Inalienable rights and freedoms! Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness! No kings, no aristocracy, no sovereigns! All men are created equal!) and applying them to ALL Americans, not just to a carefully-selected racial/gender/religious/ethnicity/preference/identity combo platter -- is about six decades old, roughly speaking. Perhaps seven, depending on which minority group we're speaking of that finally started to be recognized as actual citizens by federal law and courts and (eventually) society.
The 180 years before that, when women were close to legally being property and spent most of that period without the vote or anything resembling equality, when to be LGBT+ was to be considered mentally ill or a criminal, when non-whites WERE property for a while and were subject to open discrimination, violence and ridicule even after that, and so on -- were window-dressing. Good ideas, good principles upon which an equitable and respectable nation could be built, but only a warmup for the real thing.
And what we are voting down tomorrow is the movement to erase that nation and put America back into its old ways -- but without the veil of assumed virtue over it.
posted by delfin at 8:23 PM on November 4 [11 favorites]
The America that I recognize as America -- one that began the slow, laborious process of holding up those lofty ideals of the Founders (Liberty and justice for all! Inalienable rights and freedoms! Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness! No kings, no aristocracy, no sovereigns! All men are created equal!) and applying them to ALL Americans, not just to a carefully-selected racial/gender/religious/ethnicity/preference/identity combo platter -- is about six decades old, roughly speaking. Perhaps seven, depending on which minority group we're speaking of that finally started to be recognized as actual citizens by federal law and courts and (eventually) society.
The 180 years before that, when women were close to legally being property and spent most of that period without the vote or anything resembling equality, when to be LGBT+ was to be considered mentally ill or a criminal, when non-whites WERE property for a while and were subject to open discrimination, violence and ridicule even after that, and so on -- were window-dressing. Good ideas, good principles upon which an equitable and respectable nation could be built, but only a warmup for the real thing.
And what we are voting down tomorrow is the movement to erase that nation and put America back into its old ways -- but without the veil of assumed virtue over it.
posted by delfin at 8:23 PM on November 4 [11 favorites]
Do you guys remember when Trump tried to hamstring the entire US postal system so the mail-in ballots wouldn't arrive in time to be counted.
I do! I also remember how Biden left Louis DeJoy in place to do as much damage as he wanted to, because the norms, you guys, the norms.
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:35 PM on November 4 [22 favorites]
I do! I also remember how Biden left Louis DeJoy in place to do as much damage as he wanted to, because the norms, you guys, the norms.
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:35 PM on November 4 [22 favorites]
Having duly posted my absentee ballot, as an American living in Australia, the only thing I enjoy of this election is the fact that I get to sit in a pub in the middle of the day to watch the returns. Plenty of beer for either result.
posted by lipservant at 8:47 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
posted by lipservant at 8:47 PM on November 4 [4 favorites]
Do you guys remember when Trump tried to hamstring the entire US postal system so the mail-in ballots wouldn't arrive in time to be counted.
My next door neighbor's daughter (who works at the post office) was a Trumper until management started removing working sorting machines, cutting them in half and putting outside with the trash in 2020.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:48 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
My next door neighbor's daughter (who works at the post office) was a Trumper until management started removing working sorting machines, cutting them in half and putting outside with the trash in 2020.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:48 PM on November 4 [12 favorites]
Whoa, and they left trumps guy in charge of the postal system for the last 4 years too. Its crazy how trump has been president for 8 straight years.
posted by Iax at 11:53 PM on November 4 [3 favorites]
posted by Iax at 11:53 PM on November 4 [3 favorites]
waited in line for two hours last week to early vote in Indianapolis
This is not normal by international standards. American elections are poorly organized in a deliberate attempt to suppress turnout. For comparison, I waited in line for zero minutes to early vote in the recent BC, Canada election.
For the millionth time Americans vote for far more things than most international voters. They're voting for president, congress, senate, judges, advisory referenda, actual referenda/ballot initiatives, state representatives, board of education reps, state's attorney, etc... The ballots are long. Even in an organized well run system US elections would take longer just from the time requirements to fill out that many choices.
In Chicago, democratic party through and through for ages, the lines to vote are long and slow even in the wealthy neighborhoods.
posted by srboisvert at 4:08 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
This is not normal by international standards. American elections are poorly organized in a deliberate attempt to suppress turnout. For comparison, I waited in line for zero minutes to early vote in the recent BC, Canada election.
For the millionth time Americans vote for far more things than most international voters. They're voting for president, congress, senate, judges, advisory referenda, actual referenda/ballot initiatives, state representatives, board of education reps, state's attorney, etc... The ballots are long. Even in an organized well run system US elections would take longer just from the time requirements to fill out that many choices.
In Chicago, democratic party through and through for ages, the lines to vote are long and slow even in the wealthy neighborhoods.
posted by srboisvert at 4:08 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
The ballots are long.
It's just clicking some buttons on a computer screen (or paper, depending on your location). Voting takes like 5 minutes. Long lines are a choice, and not everyone in the US experiences them. There's even a straight-ticket button in the US in many states, since there are only 2 main political parties. If you click that, it fills out all the ones for the party you chose for you. Like 10 seconds.
posted by The_Vegetables at 4:57 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
It's just clicking some buttons on a computer screen (or paper, depending on your location). Voting takes like 5 minutes. Long lines are a choice, and not everyone in the US experiences them. There's even a straight-ticket button in the US in many states, since there are only 2 main political parties. If you click that, it fills out all the ones for the party you chose for you. Like 10 seconds.
posted by The_Vegetables at 4:57 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
There's even a straight-ticket button in the US in many states, since there are only 2 main political parties. If you click that, it fills out all the ones for the party you chose for you. Like 10 seconds.
Even if you pick straight ticket you still have to go through and pick school board members, which judges to retain, and answer referendum questions.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:03 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Even if you pick straight ticket you still have to go through and pick school board members, which judges to retain, and answer referendum questions.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:03 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
If you want a say in your government, sometimes you have to vote for a lot of things. That's OK, it is how America works, any non-USIans who want to complain about our long ballots should maybe tend to their own gardens.
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:09 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:09 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Long lines aren't some fact of life in the US. Even with long American ballots, plenty of places don't have any particular problem with long lines on election day.* I've never had to wait more than eh 5 minutes to vote on election day in NY. Pretty sure that I've never had to wait more than 10 minutes on election day even in TX and NC.
"Habitually" long lines are a choice. Maybe malicious, maybe just cheaping out, but a choice.
*I mean that there might be a line at opening and a line at like 5:30 when people are coming home from work but not an hour+ long line all day; I've always been able to avoid those times
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:23 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
"Habitually" long lines are a choice. Maybe malicious, maybe just cheaping out, but a choice.
*I mean that there might be a line at opening and a line at like 5:30 when people are coming home from work but not an hour+ long line all day; I've always been able to avoid those times
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:23 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I filled out a chicago mail-in ballot in the comfort of my home, with a pre-arranged list of every vote I was going to make (which also takes time, even with voting guides!) and it took me 15 minutes just to fill out the bubbles. We have like 50 judges up for retention, along with everything else. The lines I saw dropping off my ballot were the longest I’ve ever seen for early voting, and I just texted my poll-working friend and he said it was much busier than 2020 this morning.
Edited to add that here I normally see/experience early voting lines, I saw longer than I normally see this year. On Election Day we have a LOT more polling places and I’ve never waited more than 5 minutes on actual Election Day.
posted by jeweled accumulation at 6:23 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Edited to add that here I normally see/experience early voting lines, I saw longer than I normally see this year. On Election Day we have a LOT more polling places and I’ve never waited more than 5 minutes on actual Election Day.
posted by jeweled accumulation at 6:23 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Uh yeah, it's not always just a computer screen. Voting can take much longer than 5 minutes. And hell, some uninformed people are in the booth looking up judges.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:37 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:37 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Voting for judges is one of my least favorite things because it is virtually impossible to be informed enough to make a reasonable decision. The only exception to that is during retention elections when you have lots of info to go on, like with Anne Marie Coyle in Philadelphia, who, despite a flurry of editorials in the Inquirer pleading for people to not retain her because this is kookoo for cocoa puffs and also just a terrible person, was still retained because people don't read. We could have done some good for the city by getting her booted, and we failed.
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:53 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:53 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
It's not at all impossible here - Most of the time, we're voting to retain or not, and the ARDC or other lawyer organizations put out lists of who is qualified or not.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:01 AM on November 5
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:01 AM on November 5
Habitually" long lines are a choice.
They’re really not, when you consider that not all areas are as geographically dense as NY, and that voting stations are not federally funded. More rural counties, more geographically spread out, can’t afford to have a voting station every mile.
posted by corb at 8:42 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
They’re really not, when you consider that not all areas are as geographically dense as NY, and that voting stations are not federally funded. More rural counties, more geographically spread out, can’t afford to have a voting station every mile.
posted by corb at 8:42 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
jenfullmoon, we must live in the same neighborhood then. I walk by the Anubis statue almost every morning early, so it looks like they deployed the Trump sign in the middle of the day yesterday. It's the first Trump sign I've seen in this college town this year; in 2020 Trump signs were rare but not totally hidden.
posted by Numenius at 8:51 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Numenius at 8:51 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
In that case, howdy, neighbor! Wasn't expecting that on the Internet today :)
I felt so sad driving by it today, with his flag on and Anubis4Trump. Barf.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:56 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I felt so sad driving by it today, with his flag on and Anubis4Trump. Barf.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:56 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Horus4Harris
posted by Pallas Athena at 4:22 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Pallas Athena at 4:22 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
With almost every vote counted, every state shifted toward the Republican Party.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:26 PM on November 27
posted by jeffburdges at 12:26 PM on November 27
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posted by ngaiotonga at 5:56 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]