☑️ The Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes (🇺🇸)
November 5, 2024 3:10 AM Subscribe
Election Day is finally here. (*gulp*) Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, after replacing a Biden campaign killed by an abysmal June debate, has run a historic sprint to the finish, promising (with Coach Tim Walz) "A New Way Forward" focused on reproductive rights, middle class economics, and protecting American democracy. Former President Donald Trump, saddled with myriad felonies, a historically unpopular running mate, and a platform that ranges from fascistic to incoherent, leads a darkly authoritarian counterculture that tried once to subvert the popular will and aims to do so again. Dozens of key House and Senate and ballot races hang in the balance, and the outcome has titanic implications for human rights, climate change, the international order, and the future of liberal democracy around the world. But despite the stark contrast, a lingering economic malaise (and suspiciously close polling) make this look like the closest contest in modern history. So let's give it a push in the right direction, yeah? Voting resources:
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Follow the returns: ⌚ Poll closing times - 🚨DecisionDeskHQ results - 📈 538 benchmarks - 📺 Live coverage - 📰 Politico Liveblog - 🐀Preparing for post-election subversion - ⌛Timeline through Inauguration Day
The 2024 presidential race went from deja vu to unprecedented overnight
More bits and bobs: Harris on SNL - Rogan endorses Trump - Lebron James, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Harrison Ford endorse Harris - The Onion examines a key swing voter - Dixville Notch is... a tie - over 78 million votes have been cast thus far
In Texas: A pregnant teenager died after trying to get care in three visits to Texas emergency rooms
Exactly how Trump could ban abortion nationwide
John Oliver's emotional final plea, highlighting Palestinian-American Georgia state rep. Ruwa Romman
Harris vows at Michigan rally to ‘do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza’
RFK Jr. wants federal health data so he can show vaccines are unsafe, Trump transition co-chair says
Five ways a Trump presidency would be disastrous for the climate
Could Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, upend the U.S. Senate race?
What Putin really wants from the US election
Closing arguments: Kamala Harris - Tim Walz - Barack Obama - Michelle Obama
Some reasons for hope (though not unless you VOTE 💪):
The 2024 presidential race went from deja vu to unprecedented overnight
More bits and bobs: Harris on SNL - Rogan endorses Trump - Lebron James, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Harrison Ford endorse Harris - The Onion examines a key swing voter - Dixville Notch is... a tie - over 78 million votes have been cast thus far
In Texas: A pregnant teenager died after trying to get care in three visits to Texas emergency rooms
Exactly how Trump could ban abortion nationwide
John Oliver's emotional final plea, highlighting Palestinian-American Georgia state rep. Ruwa Romman
Harris vows at Michigan rally to ‘do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza’
RFK Jr. wants federal health data so he can show vaccines are unsafe, Trump transition co-chair says
Five ways a Trump presidency would be disastrous for the climate
Could Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, upend the U.S. Senate race?
What Putin really wants from the US election
Closing arguments: Kamala Harris - Tim Walz - Barack Obama - Michelle Obama
Some reasons for hope (though not unless you VOTE 💪):
Gold-standard pollster Ann Selzer -- one of the most respected and accurate in the nation -- finds Harris leading by 3% in Iowa, after Trump previously won the state by 9 points. If those stats are correct, it heralds a huge win for Harris even as other polls say the race is too close to call.[Special thanks to Brandon Blatcher for helping assemble this post!]
Elections guru Jon Ralston predicts a (very) narrow Harris win in Nevada, after weeks of dooming over worrying early-vote returns that showed Republicans building a rare lead in the state.
Allan Lichtman gives Harris 9 of his vaunted 13 Keys to the White House
Even the notably bearish Nate Silver's final forecast is -literally- closer than a coin toss (with an ever-so-slight Harris advantage)
I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by chavenet at 3:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [130 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 3:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [130 favorites]
This is a FANTASTIC post, well done.
posted by saladin at 3:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [44 favorites]
posted by saladin at 3:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [44 favorites]
I don't know if I mentioned this in one of the other threads, but I was shocked to see Randall Terry (of Operation Rescue infamy) on my sample ballot. I guess for people who think the Republicans don't go far enough?
posted by mittens at 3:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by mittens at 3:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
*cough cough*
Sorry that I startled you there, America. I have been asked by the world to bring you a message.
How long have I been standing in the corner watching you? Longer than is healthy for either of us to know.
Anyway, the other nations got together and we talked. Well, almost everybody. We sent Russia an invite with the date November 6th.
I should say that the UK is here in body but not spirit, just staring in the distance, muttering to themselves, and isn't responding to anything we say. Apparently they looked deep into their own soul in the last few years and saw some dark shit. We could've told'em, but sometimes you need to find things out for yourself.
The rest of us huddled together and agreed on a message we all could sign off on. **Glares at Hungary and makes a shushing motion**
Ahem. **Reaches into backpocket and pulls out a folded piece of paper, reads**
"Dear America. Please allow us the luxury of not thinking about you for the next four years and, ideally, for the next forever years. Also, vote for the one who can dance, please."
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Uhh… no need to debase yourself like that to get your special relationship back.
Later tonight I'll be off to an election night party that Zambia's hosting. The music will be nothing but bangers, and we're hoping to dance ourselves into exhaustion, wake up tomorrow, glance once at our phones, and never think about your politics ever again. But until I fuck off, hopefully forever, I'll just stand here in the corner.
**Stares**
Oh, and you'll probably want to burn that drawing the UK made, without looking at it, not even glance, okay. Healthier for everyone that way.
**Stands in corner, staring**
posted by Kattullus at 3:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [84 favorites]
Sorry that I startled you there, America. I have been asked by the world to bring you a message.
How long have I been standing in the corner watching you? Longer than is healthy for either of us to know.
Anyway, the other nations got together and we talked. Well, almost everybody. We sent Russia an invite with the date November 6th.
I should say that the UK is here in body but not spirit, just staring in the distance, muttering to themselves, and isn't responding to anything we say. Apparently they looked deep into their own soul in the last few years and saw some dark shit. We could've told'em, but sometimes you need to find things out for yourself.
The rest of us huddled together and agreed on a message we all could sign off on. **Glares at Hungary and makes a shushing motion**
Ahem. **Reaches into backpocket and pulls out a folded piece of paper, reads**
"Dear America. Please allow us the luxury of not thinking about you for the next four years and, ideally, for the next forever years. Also, vote for the one who can dance, please."
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Uhh… no need to debase yourself like that to get your special relationship back.
Later tonight I'll be off to an election night party that Zambia's hosting. The music will be nothing but bangers, and we're hoping to dance ourselves into exhaustion, wake up tomorrow, glance once at our phones, and never think about your politics ever again. But until I fuck off, hopefully forever, I'll just stand here in the corner.
**Stares**
Oh, and you'll probably want to burn that drawing the UK made, without looking at it, not even glance, okay. Healthier for everyone that way.
**Stands in corner, staring**
posted by Kattullus at 3:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [84 favorites]
Note to anyone who hasn't voted yet - don't forget to check all the downballot stuff, and take a moment to check any of the proposals. I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake (the "increase the powers of the Dept. of Sanitation" proposal sounded okay, but then I saw someone point out that it would extend to Sanitation crews cracking down on street food vendors and realized oh, wait, this is the mayor trying to be a dick).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Seems crazy to have to say this where any first world country's election is concerned, but I hope it all goes peacefully today.
From 2020's campaign and still a great song: Actually Vote
Here's a word from Hotel Fred.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
From 2020's campaign and still a great song: Actually Vote
Here's a word from Hotel Fred.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
chavenet: I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.
I’m having the lasagna. Let’s do this.
posted by dr_dank at 3:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I’m having the lasagna. Let’s do this.
posted by dr_dank at 3:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Mod note: [Thank you so much, Rhaomi, and everyone participating! We've added this to the sidebar and Best Of blog!]
posted by taz (staff) at 3:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 3:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
I'm going to link to the 2016 Metafilter Election Night Megathread as a corrective. About the time Trump was steamrolling to victory, someone in that thread commented: "everyone on this website assured me this was a lock for Hillary." I have never forgotten that.
For the past eight years, I have always thought of the epistemic closure that made reading that thread like watching a car crash in slow motion. Don't get cocky.
My prediction, having closely followed the election: Trump wins the electoral college with around 290 EC votes and Harris ekes out a tiny popular vote victory.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
For the past eight years, I have always thought of the epistemic closure that made reading that thread like watching a car crash in slow motion. Don't get cocky.
My prediction, having closely followed the election: Trump wins the electoral college with around 290 EC votes and Harris ekes out a tiny popular vote victory.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
...and may God save the United States of America [from itself].
posted by wenestvedt at 3:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 3:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.
posted by h00py at 3:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
posted by h00py at 3:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
I'll be working the Geocode hotline for my local county election services all day...
posted by schyler523 at 3:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by schyler523 at 3:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Anything that gives the disgustingly corrupt “Trump is not a fascist” NYC Mayor Adams any extra political power is a hard NO for me this year, so all of the ballots after number one can wait until he is in jail. Doubly so with the attempt to crack down on the local street vendors…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake
Seconding this. The language of some proposals/amendments etc. which appear on ballots can be really deceptive. The ad campaigns for or against them even more so.
posted by Foosnark at 4:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Seconding this. The language of some proposals/amendments etc. which appear on ballots can be really deceptive. The ad campaigns for or against them even more so.
posted by Foosnark at 4:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Here's what I hope happens: Harris wins and Trump loses. All his rallies and speeches and media tours just...stop. MAGA people, over the next few months, start to forget about Donald as he is seen less and less often in public, and when he does it excites very few.
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes, and I'll say "Well, how about that. They did actually manage to put him in jail." And I'll go back to whittling a birdhouse or whatever.
posted by zardoz at 4:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [53 favorites]
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes, and I'll say "Well, how about that. They did actually manage to put him in jail." And I'll go back to whittling a birdhouse or whatever.
posted by zardoz at 4:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [53 favorites]
I got caught with a half gram of cocaine on me 20 years ago, so I’m not allowed to have a voice ever again, but hopefully all y’all made up for it.
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 4:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [68 favorites]
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 4:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [68 favorites]
I read this post in the voice of a "Previously on..." summary. Then I threw it into the Star Wars Intro Creator, and goddamn if it didn't give me chills.
posted by Molesome at 4:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Molesome at 4:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes
His sentencing for falsifying business records is still scheduled for Nov. 26. That's my birthday, and I know exactly what I want for my birthday.
posted by Foosnark at 4:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
His sentencing for falsifying business records is still scheduled for Nov. 26. That's my birthday, and I know exactly what I want for my birthday.
posted by Foosnark at 4:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
Kamala wins, full stop, and tonight we are having orange chicken for dinner. Let’s go!
posted by mochapickle at 4:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 4:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Voted early. By mail, but I dropped it off in a secured ballot box. But I'm in a Deep Blue city in a solidly Blue state.
First time I have ever voted early, but I just could not imagine myself waiting to vote until today.
“Poo-tee-weet?”
posted by SoberHighland at 4:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
First time I have ever voted early, but I just could not imagine myself waiting to vote until today.
“Poo-tee-weet?”
posted by SoberHighland at 4:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I have nothing to contribute beyond what busted_crayons said.
(exchanges a glance with Kattullus over in the other corner; sighs, a little wearily, and goes back to trying forlornly to persuade own government to stop dumping more coal and gas on the fire consuming us all)
posted by flabdablet at 4:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
(exchanges a glance with Kattullus over in the other corner; sighs, a little wearily, and goes back to trying forlornly to persuade own government to stop dumping more coal and gas on the fire consuming us all)
posted by flabdablet at 4:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
Is she really that much of an underdog? I'll take them up on that (I put $50 on Harris). Manifesting positive energy for everyone over in the US!
posted by xdvesper at 4:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Is she really that much of an underdog? I'll take them up on that (I put $50 on Harris). Manifesting positive energy for everyone over in the US!
posted by xdvesper at 4:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I'm now back from my local polling place. They replaced the touchscreens-and-weird-box-things I didn't like last time, with a new touchscreens-and-piece-of-paper thing I also didn't like. At least there's a 50% chance that I'll never have to vote again.
posted by mittens at 4:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by mittens at 4:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Thanks for this post. Also, thank you to everyone who's been volunteering and working to make this election as safe and as fair as it can be.
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I’ll talk to y’all tomorrow.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 4:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I would like to take this moment to suggest that the Democratic Party eliminate the months-long primary/caucus process. Harris has shown that we don’t need it and it’s a massive waste of money.
Start the primaries in June and wrap them up by the end of July. Nominate a candidate in August and run a national campaign to November.
God knows that’s long enough.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
Start the primaries in June and wrap them up by the end of July. Nominate a candidate in August and run a national campaign to November.
God knows that’s long enough.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
posted by Jon_Evil at 4:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 4:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Fascism is bad. Vote accordingly. Empires are also bad. So is aristocracy. Where possible, also vote accordingly.
Good luck to us all.
Except the fascists.
posted by JohnFromGR at 4:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Good luck to us all.
Except the fascists.
posted by JohnFromGR at 4:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Godspeed, everyone. As a Canadian with strong ties to the US, I really really hope that USA does not return to the chaos and Fascism.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Hey, it only took 40 or so years for Germany to get back on its feet!
/s
posted by SoberHighland at 4:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
/s
posted by SoberHighland at 4:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Go vote(if you haven’t already), and take your friends! Then , deep breaths. I’m doing a social media and politics free zone dinner tonight from 6:30-9ish. The world will still be there when I’m done and at that point there isn’t an urgency I can make a difference on. I encourage the same.
posted by meinvt at 4:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by meinvt at 4:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
On the other side of the world, I’m going to bed. Obviously, in about seven hours, nothing will have likely been decided, but, uh, here’s hoping to waking up to good news. Best of luck, see you in the morning.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by Ghidorah at 4:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
looks at the bottle of meds. do i take an extra hit of anti-anxiety today. or do i just get through it with the regular dose and some nsaids. my partner is out of town. it's just me and the cats today. try to get some work done. pet the cats.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Got my ballot in the mail on October 11th, a Friday. Filled it out and dropped it off at the elections office on the following Monday. Signature verification happened two days later and the batch it was put into was counted. Had to make sure I got it done with. Now I gotta work today and that’s not gonna be the easiest thing to concentrate on. Le sigh.
posted by azpenguin at 4:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 4:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Twin Cities MeFiers- For downballot analysis I can't recommend enough Naomi Kritzer's blog (sci-fi author oft mentioned on Metafilter). Amazingly in depth and funny, I read it every election.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Let's fucking GO!
posted by valkane at 5:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
"One thing is clear: No matter what the vote total shows, Trump will claim victory. Either the vote totals will show him winning, and Trump will declare the process was legitimate. Or the vote totals will show that Trump lost, and Trump will claim he was cheated again — citing partial vote totals as proof. To get prepared, Popular Information has teamed up with More Perfect Union to create an election night guide for key states, illustrating how the vote totals will fluctuate as the night progresses."
posted by mittens at 5:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Hot takes?
If it's a bad night: Republicans take Virginia 7th district quickly, early in the evening. Michigan looks weak mid-evening. Sherrod Brown race in Ohio is called fairly quickly for Moreno. North Carolina is called tonight for Trump, instead of stretching into absentee ballot counting tomorrow and beyond. Contested Michigan House races go mostly to Republicans, Republicans hold in contested New York House races. Iowa 1st and 3rd go to Republicans. Presidential race called with a narrow Trump victory when Pennsylvania is called in the early morning hours. Last hope for control of the House are four or five California and Arizona House districts where mail-in ballots won't be counted for several days, and Maine 2nd and Alaska which wait for a decision from the ranked-choice processes.
If it's a good night: Democrats take Virginia 7th. Georgia and North Carolina look good for Democrats. Democrats flip back House seats in New York. Democrats take Iowa 1st and 3rd. Brown wins Ohio, Tester race in Montana runs into the early morning. Democrats take back Wisconsin 3rd and Oregon 5th. No Presidential winner declared in the early morning, but either Pennsylvania or North Carolina puts Harris over the top on Wednesday. Control of the House has to wait for slow races, but it's clear that Democrats will win. Dan Osborn of Nebraska becomes the most important person in the U.S. since he now holds the balance of power in the Senate.
If it's a really good night: Harris wins Iowa. Sure, why not? Harris wins enough swing states by enough of a margin for the race to be called in her favor around midnight. Texas and Florida Senate races run into the early morning as Democrats overperform. Democrats win enough House seats in Michigan, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin-3, Oregon-5, Virginia-7, that control of the House isn't dependent on the outcome of slow-reporting California races (which flip another 4 or 5 to Democrats).
If it's a really, really, really good night: big media pundits sit on TV slackjawed, drooling and speechless when it's reported that Kansas is too close to call, as well as Nebraska 1st district (not the Omaha district, which Harris will win in any scenario, 1st is the next district over).
(What do I really think will happen? Something between the 'bad' and 'good' scenarios above. Not gonna make definite predictions with this much granularity.)
posted by gimonca at 5:02 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
If it's a bad night: Republicans take Virginia 7th district quickly, early in the evening. Michigan looks weak mid-evening. Sherrod Brown race in Ohio is called fairly quickly for Moreno. North Carolina is called tonight for Trump, instead of stretching into absentee ballot counting tomorrow and beyond. Contested Michigan House races go mostly to Republicans, Republicans hold in contested New York House races. Iowa 1st and 3rd go to Republicans. Presidential race called with a narrow Trump victory when Pennsylvania is called in the early morning hours. Last hope for control of the House are four or five California and Arizona House districts where mail-in ballots won't be counted for several days, and Maine 2nd and Alaska which wait for a decision from the ranked-choice processes.
If it's a good night: Democrats take Virginia 7th. Georgia and North Carolina look good for Democrats. Democrats flip back House seats in New York. Democrats take Iowa 1st and 3rd. Brown wins Ohio, Tester race in Montana runs into the early morning. Democrats take back Wisconsin 3rd and Oregon 5th. No Presidential winner declared in the early morning, but either Pennsylvania or North Carolina puts Harris over the top on Wednesday. Control of the House has to wait for slow races, but it's clear that Democrats will win. Dan Osborn of Nebraska becomes the most important person in the U.S. since he now holds the balance of power in the Senate.
If it's a really good night: Harris wins Iowa. Sure, why not? Harris wins enough swing states by enough of a margin for the race to be called in her favor around midnight. Texas and Florida Senate races run into the early morning as Democrats overperform. Democrats win enough House seats in Michigan, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin-3, Oregon-5, Virginia-7, that control of the House isn't dependent on the outcome of slow-reporting California races (which flip another 4 or 5 to Democrats).
If it's a really, really, really good night: big media pundits sit on TV slackjawed, drooling and speechless when it's reported that Kansas is too close to call, as well as Nebraska 1st district (not the Omaha district, which Harris will win in any scenario, 1st is the next district over).
(What do I really think will happen? Something between the 'bad' and 'good' scenarios above. Not gonna make definite predictions with this much granularity.)
posted by gimonca at 5:02 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
I'm channeling my anxiety into making up silly little songs of appreciation to thank all the Americans who have already voted Harris, or who are doing so today. Seriously thank you so much. You got this! Love and solidarity from Canada.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
My 70+ year old mother, who has never done or said anything political in my life, sent me video last night from the Kamala rally in Philly.
posted by funkaspuck at 5:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [55 favorites]
posted by funkaspuck at 5:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [55 favorites]
Let’s fuckin’ gooooooooooo
Voted early (in person) last week. I don’t trust the polls, I don’t trust the fuckers that own the media, they don’t make money unless we’re glued to the screens thinking it’s a horse race. I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office. After seeing the clear decline in whatever mental capacity he once had. After fucking Dobbs, fer Christ sakes.
It ain’t over til it’s over but I’m not going to be preemptively wallowing in misery.
posted by caution live frogs at 5:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
Voted early (in person) last week. I don’t trust the polls, I don’t trust the fuckers that own the media, they don’t make money unless we’re glued to the screens thinking it’s a horse race. I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office. After seeing the clear decline in whatever mental capacity he once had. After fucking Dobbs, fer Christ sakes.
It ain’t over til it’s over but I’m not going to be preemptively wallowing in misery.
posted by caution live frogs at 5:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
I put out a bag of Doritos for Kamala last night. You know, like cookies for Santa.
posted by valkane at 5:09 AM on November 5, 2024 [45 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:09 AM on November 5, 2024 [45 favorites]
I was one of the few on MetaFilter who, in 2016, predicted a Trump victory. For some reason taking a lot of flak from MeFites for suggesting he'd win Wisconsin ('What would a limey know about US politics? Stick to cricket.' was one message).
This time round am predicting, after the dust settles, a comfortable Electoral College vote victory for Kamala, and a popular vote margin of 2.5m to 3m votes in her favour.
posted by Wordshore at 5:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
This time round am predicting, after the dust settles, a comfortable Electoral College vote victory for Kamala, and a popular vote margin of 2.5m to 3m votes in her favour.
posted by Wordshore at 5:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
For people who have already voted - check your ballot to make sure it was accepted.
posted by coffeecat at 5:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 5:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
In 2016 I was in the MetaFilter MST3k club chat room when the shit went down, and we were Gobsmacked (and I mean that in the most British way possible, wordshore). We were stumbling around like we had got kidney-punched. 2020 we were elated. And I got hope for this year. Maybe I'll see you watching bad sci-fi on the interwebs.
posted by valkane at 5:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I know 2016 traumatized everyone, but the circumstances are real different this time round. Trump was actually funny back then—still crude and horrible, but funny—and he's got nothing left in the tank, now. Back then, he could at least plausibly for some people seem like an agent of change for the better; now, everyone knows he's a shitty failure. His rallies are half-empty even in smaller venues, and just like she said in the debate, people are bored and leave early. He's the butt of the jokes now, not the jokester. He has zero GOTV not run by obvious scammers; she's got a next-level operation.
Clinton didn't take campaigning seriously, and Harris does. She's run a campaign that's close to letter-perfect, whereas Clinton was falling down and dogged by scandal. Clinton had been the subject of 25 years of hate-propaganda, and Harris has not. Clinton had the screeching Berners after her with knives, whereas all Harris has is the Gaza/Stein voters, who are odious but way less numerous and everyone now knows what a piece of shit Stein is and how she cost Clinton the election. Props to Saint Bernie himself, who I personally loathe but is doing the gods' work this time round. Clinton had members of her own party turning away from her; Harris does not: even though she's to the right of the center of the coalition, she's got zero defectors from the Blue Dog side nor from the Ardent Progressives: props to AOC, who I also don't care for but who I acknowledge is really quite good at her job.
Republicans lined up behind Trump in 2016; now, you've got a whole cottage industry of Republicans for Harris and not even a peep of the reverse. It's totally okay now if you're a conformist conservative to leave the top of the ballot blank or vote for Harris: you've got permission from Dick Fucking Cheney FFS. But Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Nobody's complacent about it, either—and more than any one single thing, complacency is what killed us in 2016.
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer. His most dedicated fanbase is old and have a poor history of taking care of themselves. 13M people have died and slightly more come of age since 2020, and statistically, that's a shift in Harris' favor, even if some of those are young white men poisoned by Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate—but they're also a really unreliable voting demographic. Show me more than a token few people who voted for Biden and now want Trump back. The only thing in this whole election that's in his favor is white guy v black woman, and while that does move the needle somewhat, I don't think it's nearly enough. Look at the absolute legions of pissed-off women going to the polls this time: a lot of them, especially the younger ones, didn't show up for Clinton, but you can bet your ass they're here this time.
The polls are skewed in Trump's favor because 3/4 of them are partisan hit jobs and/or use suuuper questionable methodology. 538 is mathematical malpractice. Harris hasn't really pushed back on this because she knows complacency kills: Dems are fickle and won't show up if they don't think it's important, like in 2016.
Most importantly, watch what the campaigns have been doing for the last two weeks. Harris is bouncing all over the swing states, with fun parties and famous surrogates, even making a show of force into Texas. Trump has been holding sparsely-attended rallies in North Carolina, trying to shore up that state (which he's going to lose because of the terrible Republican governor candidate dragging him down) because if he loses it, he has very little chance of winning the EC even if he does win Pennsylvania, which I think is very unlikely because of Harris' ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot in Arizona, and abortion rights have won huge ever since Dobbs. Trump's campaign is acting like they know how shitty their internal polling is, and Harris' has been doing the opposite—and the internal polling is way better than the shit you see on 538.
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [110 favorites]
Clinton didn't take campaigning seriously, and Harris does. She's run a campaign that's close to letter-perfect, whereas Clinton was falling down and dogged by scandal. Clinton had been the subject of 25 years of hate-propaganda, and Harris has not. Clinton had the screeching Berners after her with knives, whereas all Harris has is the Gaza/Stein voters, who are odious but way less numerous and everyone now knows what a piece of shit Stein is and how she cost Clinton the election. Props to Saint Bernie himself, who I personally loathe but is doing the gods' work this time round. Clinton had members of her own party turning away from her; Harris does not: even though she's to the right of the center of the coalition, she's got zero defectors from the Blue Dog side nor from the Ardent Progressives: props to AOC, who I also don't care for but who I acknowledge is really quite good at her job.
Republicans lined up behind Trump in 2016; now, you've got a whole cottage industry of Republicans for Harris and not even a peep of the reverse. It's totally okay now if you're a conformist conservative to leave the top of the ballot blank or vote for Harris: you've got permission from Dick Fucking Cheney FFS. But Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Nobody's complacent about it, either—and more than any one single thing, complacency is what killed us in 2016.
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer. His most dedicated fanbase is old and have a poor history of taking care of themselves. 13M people have died and slightly more come of age since 2020, and statistically, that's a shift in Harris' favor, even if some of those are young white men poisoned by Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate—but they're also a really unreliable voting demographic. Show me more than a token few people who voted for Biden and now want Trump back. The only thing in this whole election that's in his favor is white guy v black woman, and while that does move the needle somewhat, I don't think it's nearly enough. Look at the absolute legions of pissed-off women going to the polls this time: a lot of them, especially the younger ones, didn't show up for Clinton, but you can bet your ass they're here this time.
The polls are skewed in Trump's favor because 3/4 of them are partisan hit jobs and/or use suuuper questionable methodology. 538 is mathematical malpractice. Harris hasn't really pushed back on this because she knows complacency kills: Dems are fickle and won't show up if they don't think it's important, like in 2016.
Most importantly, watch what the campaigns have been doing for the last two weeks. Harris is bouncing all over the swing states, with fun parties and famous surrogates, even making a show of force into Texas. Trump has been holding sparsely-attended rallies in North Carolina, trying to shore up that state (which he's going to lose because of the terrible Republican governor candidate dragging him down) because if he loses it, he has very little chance of winning the EC even if he does win Pennsylvania, which I think is very unlikely because of Harris' ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot in Arizona, and abortion rights have won huge ever since Dobbs. Trump's campaign is acting like they know how shitty their internal polling is, and Harris' has been doing the opposite—and the internal polling is way better than the shit you see on 538.
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [110 favorites]
I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.
I hope you're right, but I don't have the faith in people you do. No matter how stupid you think people are, you're underestimating the capacity of people in large groups to exceed your expectations.
I really hope you're right, not only because I fear for the people of the US if you're not, but also because the outsized influence US politics has on the rest of the world means my family and I are impacted by the decision the American people are making. Please don't let us down.
posted by dg at 5:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I hope you're right, but I don't have the faith in people you do. No matter how stupid you think people are, you're underestimating the capacity of people in large groups to exceed your expectations.
I really hope you're right, not only because I fear for the people of the US if you're not, but also because the outsized influence US politics has on the rest of the world means my family and I are impacted by the decision the American people are making. Please don't let us down.
posted by dg at 5:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.
posted by nickmark at 5:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by nickmark at 5:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
I hate that this is on the sidebar. Hate it. You are shoving in our faces the one subject that this site has managed to implement a topical filter for, on the worst day for it to happen. This is obviously a good post, but no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it, double especially if they have the USPolitics filter implemented.
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!
I watched the vote this morning. Not only is the above information correct, there was one addition interesting piece- how they voted for the top of the ticket vs down ballot. The 3 Trump votes were straight (R) tickets, then there was 1 straight (D) ticket. The remaining two votes for Harris were Harris for the top of the ticket and (R) down ballot.
I am very interested if this is indicative of anything…
posted by susiswimmer at 5:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I watched the vote this morning. Not only is the above information correct, there was one addition interesting piece- how they voted for the top of the ticket vs down ballot. The 3 Trump votes were straight (R) tickets, then there was 1 straight (D) ticket. The remaining two votes for Harris were Harris for the top of the ticket and (R) down ballot.
I am very interested if this is indicative of anything…
posted by susiswimmer at 5:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election
I'm on Metafilter and I'm fine with it. The number of responses this thread's already getting suggests I'm not alone.
Also: I like this week's New Yorker cover.
posted by Paul Slade at 6:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [34 favorites]
I'm on Metafilter and I'm fine with it. The number of responses this thread's already getting suggests I'm not alone.
Also: I like this week's New Yorker cover.
posted by Paul Slade at 6:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [34 favorites]
I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.
In 2012, the Daily Mirror famously asked the post-US-election question "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" And my honest thought was "Sounds a bit low, actually."
And it was.
posted by delfin at 6:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
In 2012, the Daily Mirror famously asked the post-US-election question "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" And my honest thought was "Sounds a bit low, actually."
And it was.
posted by delfin at 6:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I woke up, put my pants on, and voted.
I reminded myself about coming back from the Caribbean a week after the inauguration in 2017 where I'd ignored politics all week. Turning a corner at the airport into a throng asking if you need a lawyer. I wrote it up into a comment at the time. Not going back to that.
Anyhow, I stuck my I Voted sticker in my wallet with the rest of them.
posted by Catblack at 6:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I reminded myself about coming back from the Caribbean a week after the inauguration in 2017 where I'd ignored politics all week. Turning a corner at the airport into a throng asking if you need a lawyer. I wrote it up into a comment at the time. Not going back to that.
Anyhow, I stuck my I Voted sticker in my wallet with the rest of them.
posted by Catblack at 6:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
A few notes from PA-7:
We canvassed on Sunday. When we got to the Harris office we learned that there were five buses of volunteers spreading out throughout our county. We door knocked and didn’t get a ton of hits but everyone we did see said they would vote and boy had there been a lot of outreach that weekend.
We early voted two weeks ago but many of our friends did not. There are lines out the door at the college polling station, our polling station a few blocks away, and the other polling stations too in our neighborhood too. A neighbor I have always thought of as on the fence politically has a full suite of Dem signs on their lawn.
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic. I’ve been here before, in 2016 and in 2004. But I am allowing myself the smallest possible amount of hope.
posted by thecaddy at 6:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
We canvassed on Sunday. When we got to the Harris office we learned that there were five buses of volunteers spreading out throughout our county. We door knocked and didn’t get a ton of hits but everyone we did see said they would vote and boy had there been a lot of outreach that weekend.
We early voted two weeks ago but many of our friends did not. There are lines out the door at the college polling station, our polling station a few blocks away, and the other polling stations too in our neighborhood too. A neighbor I have always thought of as on the fence politically has a full suite of Dem signs on their lawn.
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic. I’ve been here before, in 2016 and in 2004. But I am allowing myself the smallest possible amount of hope.
posted by thecaddy at 6:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
put my pants on
thank you for your service :)
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [48 favorites]
thank you for your service :)
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [48 favorites]
Multiple counties in IL are unable to vote due to vendor software/hardware failing right after polls opened. Vendor reportedly is not answering phones. If this affects states that are actually in play, it's going to get real interesting.
posted by SaltySalticid at 6:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by SaltySalticid at 6:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
After canvassing in 2020 and 2022, Mr Machine has been out volunteering for the Dems almost every weekend since May, and just finished a run of super-full days of training and de-briefing canvassers at our local field office in Philadelphia.
A few points of anecdata:
1. People are coming in from all over the country to help. He had people in from California and New York and even some state representatives from Rhode Island.
2. People are willing to do the work. At this point, the gentrified neighborhoods in our key turnout city in a swing state are burned-over districts, but the Harris ground operation is sending people into areas that Biden's didn't. They're canvassing in not just the traditional areas full of upper-middle class, well-educated white Dem voters, but in working class communities of color.
3. People are responding. Canvassing is usually a game of inches, but in the new canvassing areas, the field office where my husband volunteered was making bounds and strides. There were people who didn't have a plan, but now do. There were people who were undecided, but are now voting Harris. A canvassing group knocked on the door of a very sweet older woman who really wanted to vote for Harris, but was frightened because she had read about some of the violence being carried out at polling places by MAGA supporters, so one of the volunteers from California offered to personally come to her door at 9 am on Election Day and walk her to the polling place, and she enthusiastically took him up on it. Maybe she is even voting right now!
I'm really proud of Mr Machine, and I'll be so proud of my city if, once again, bad things happen to Donald Trump here.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [67 favorites]
A few points of anecdata:
1. People are coming in from all over the country to help. He had people in from California and New York and even some state representatives from Rhode Island.
2. People are willing to do the work. At this point, the gentrified neighborhoods in our key turnout city in a swing state are burned-over districts, but the Harris ground operation is sending people into areas that Biden's didn't. They're canvassing in not just the traditional areas full of upper-middle class, well-educated white Dem voters, but in working class communities of color.
3. People are responding. Canvassing is usually a game of inches, but in the new canvassing areas, the field office where my husband volunteered was making bounds and strides. There were people who didn't have a plan, but now do. There were people who were undecided, but are now voting Harris. A canvassing group knocked on the door of a very sweet older woman who really wanted to vote for Harris, but was frightened because she had read about some of the violence being carried out at polling places by MAGA supporters, so one of the volunteers from California offered to personally come to her door at 9 am on Election Day and walk her to the polling place, and she enthusiastically took him up on it. Maybe she is even voting right now!
I'm really proud of Mr Machine, and I'll be so proud of my city if, once again, bad things happen to Donald Trump here.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [67 favorites]
I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.
It reminded me of 2020 when I had the thought that Philadelphia is kind of a "restore to factory settings" button on our government.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
It reminded me of 2020 when I had the thought that Philadelphia is kind of a "restore to factory settings" button on our government.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.
I'll settle for thinking of him only in the context of: Trial, conviction, sentencing, prison; rinse and repeat.
posted by Gelatin at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
I'll settle for thinking of him only in the context of: Trial, conviction, sentencing, prison; rinse and repeat.
posted by Gelatin at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Mostly nervous today about the potential for isolated incidents of violence and coordinated incidents of fuckery. But mostly optimistic about the outcome. Add this article about the Kansas survey (not poll) to the hope-reading you do to get by today. (Doesn't predict a win there but makes today feel very weird in the let's fucking go sense.)
posted by kensington314 at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Lines have been out the door in St. Louis City and County since early voting started on October 22nd. We went on Friday the 25th, first thing in the morning, and still waiting an hour to vote. The line was quiet and pleasant, the library staff who were hosting the polling place had everything down to a routine, and the poll workers were pleasant, if not excited. They'd call out any time they had a first time voter, and everyone would clap and cheer. Excellent vibes, tbh.
I don't know how this is going to go, I'm terrified, but it feels different somehow.
Notes:
- I work at a polling place. I should go see how things are going, if the rain lets up.
- The library staff were running a side poll: Butterfingers vs. Reeces Peanut Butter Cups. I voted correctly: Butterfingers.
- Man, I love libraries so much.
posted by gc at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
I don't know how this is going to go, I'm terrified, but it feels different somehow.
Notes:
- I work at a polling place. I should go see how things are going, if the rain lets up.
- The library staff were running a side poll: Butterfingers vs. Reeces Peanut Butter Cups. I voted correctly: Butterfingers.
- Man, I love libraries so much.
posted by gc at 6:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
Candidly I'm a wreck and I'm trying to stay distracted but struggling to focus. I hope everyone is taking care of themselves as best they are able whatever happens.
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I like most of the rest of the world would not like to think about trump* ever ever again after this election. and I'm hoping it'll be over when it's over but history suggests otherwise.
In the meantime, I'll be outside the polls making the 30% Democrats here in my red red part of SW Virginia feel welcome while they vote, I'll be remembering the Republicans who came in to our Dems office asking for signs, and the neighbors who have told me that they have never voted for a Democrat but this time they are.
*except for the trial, conviction, sentencing especially for January 6th and Georgia.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
In the meantime, I'll be outside the polls making the 30% Democrats here in my red red part of SW Virginia feel welcome while they vote, I'll be remembering the Republicans who came in to our Dems office asking for signs, and the neighbors who have told me that they have never voted for a Democrat but this time they are.
*except for the trial, conviction, sentencing especially for January 6th and Georgia.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I hate that this is on the sidebar
For anyone who would rather not see the sidebar (today, or just generally) try the My Mefi view for a sidebar-free experience.
posted by taz at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
For anyone who would rather not see the sidebar (today, or just generally) try the My Mefi view for a sidebar-free experience.
posted by taz at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
May the best woman win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
>that fucking stupid and blind
this 2004 CNN Exit Poll opened my eyes 20 years ago now.
"VOTE BY INCOME" showed a smooth gradient of support, po' people lean (D) 60+% and upper middle class lean (R) 60+%
"WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?" while "only" ~1/4th the vote they were Bush's strongest bloc (along with billionaires, not polled) at ~80%. (This is why Elog was bending the knee at his nazi rally last night).
on the "ABORTION SHOULD BE..." question, 40% wanted to restrict it, same 40% were against same-sex couples
We've got a 40% vs 40% cold civil war in this country, no matter how today goes. Dems have to retake the House, Senate, and most likely SCOTUS for them to effect positive change here going forward.
posted by torokunai at 6:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
this 2004 CNN Exit Poll opened my eyes 20 years ago now.
"VOTE BY INCOME" showed a smooth gradient of support, po' people lean (D) 60+% and upper middle class lean (R) 60+%
"WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?" while "only" ~1/4th the vote they were Bush's strongest bloc (along with billionaires, not polled) at ~80%. (This is why Elog was bending the knee at his nazi rally last night).
on the "ABORTION SHOULD BE..." question, 40% wanted to restrict it, same 40% were against same-sex couples
We've got a 40% vs 40% cold civil war in this country, no matter how today goes. Dems have to retake the House, Senate, and most likely SCOTUS for them to effect positive change here going forward.
posted by torokunai at 6:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Remember that many states have abortion-related proposals on the ballot in statewide elections. Notably, Florida, Missouri and South Dakota, where the outcome of the election could overturn Republican anti-abortion laws. And also in Arizona and Nevada, where abortion-related ballot initiatives could affect turnout in Presidential swing states.
posted by gimonca at 6:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia".
posted by busted_crayons at 6:28 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia".
posted by busted_crayons at 6:28 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.
Philadelphia DA says "F Around and Find Out" to election-day interference
posted by delfin at 6:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Philadelphia DA says "F Around and Find Out" to election-day interference
posted by delfin at 6:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
In New York the proposal in play is an Equal Rights Amendment. The vote-yes side has been pitching it as a "protecting abortion rights" thing, and the vote-no side has been trotting out the usual transphobic nonsense.
NYC also has a handful of other proposals Mayor Adams tried to glomp on there but screw that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
NYC also has a handful of other proposals Mayor Adams tried to glomp on there but screw that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
No one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it
To my very bones, I understand the emotional appeal of simply trying not to think about this election any more than necessary today.
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [85 favorites]
To my very bones, I understand the emotional appeal of simply trying not to think about this election any more than necessary today.
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [85 favorites]
What I'd really like to see is a repeat of the incident in 2012, when the Fox News election office called Ohio for Obama, and Karl Rove left the broadcast desk and went storming down the hall to yell at them for reporting reality.
posted by gimonca at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.
I am opting out--in fact, I am likely to not be on the Blue after this comment as the US election infects everything on this site, it seems--of putting myself in a state of high anxiety. (This is progress for me! Thanks, therapy!) I leave the office at 1 pm; at home, I will be rolling a nice fat joint, putting on my serotonin playlist, and making a cheesecake because heck, I have not made a cheesecake in ages. I have asked friends and family to not text me about election stuff because I have voted and now it's out of my hands. (It was never in my hands, tbh.) I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Shepherd still thinks I should renounce my citizenship if Horrible Human gets in again, but I still have family back home so that complicates things for me.
Anyway. Be kind to yourself and others today. It's gonna be tense.
posted by Kitteh at 6:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I am opting out--in fact, I am likely to not be on the Blue after this comment as the US election infects everything on this site, it seems--of putting myself in a state of high anxiety. (This is progress for me! Thanks, therapy!) I leave the office at 1 pm; at home, I will be rolling a nice fat joint, putting on my serotonin playlist, and making a cheesecake because heck, I have not made a cheesecake in ages. I have asked friends and family to not text me about election stuff because I have voted and now it's out of my hands. (It was never in my hands, tbh.) I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Shepherd still thinks I should renounce my citizenship if Horrible Human gets in again, but I still have family back home so that complicates things for me.
Anyway. Be kind to yourself and others today. It's gonna be tense.
posted by Kitteh at 6:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I have the dread I only knew on Report Card Day. We're going to get a lot of answers tonight, and a lot of them I'm just plain not going to like.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
The Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes
posted by iamck at 6:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by iamck at 6:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Did the thing, feeling good. Get her done.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 6:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by chainlinkspiral at 6:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.
And to add a little to that: there's a fairly high probablility that a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.
posted by gimonca at 6:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
The thing about the "most important election of our time" thing is that while it is annoying when we say this every time, it's fucking horrible when it stops being said each time and finally rests at one particular election.
Ask Hungary. Theirs was 2010.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
Ask Hungary. Theirs was 2010.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
Went to vote around 8:30 am in Queens this morning and for whatever stroke of luck, there wasn't anybody else from my voting district group so I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Some of the other registration tables had short lines, but it was almost eerily quiet. A much better experience than my boss, who waited for 55 minutes for early voting last Friday in Long Island.
Last election cycle, I'll never forget when the election was finally called the weekend after. We were walking around Manhattan, and all of the sudden there were happy yells and screams erupting from open windows and on the street as the word got out that Trump lost. There was this amazing electric manic energy that erupted, with people spontaneously partying and dancing in the streets for the rest of the day. It was amazing, one of the brightest moments in years...
I so look forward to this again...
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Last election cycle, I'll never forget when the election was finally called the weekend after. We were walking around Manhattan, and all of the sudden there were happy yells and screams erupting from open windows and on the street as the word got out that Trump lost. There was this amazing electric manic energy that erupted, with people spontaneously partying and dancing in the streets for the rest of the day. It was amazing, one of the brightest moments in years...
I so look forward to this again...
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Billionaire Trump supporter Bernard Marcus has died.
posted by mittens at 6:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
posted by mittens at 6:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
posted by invincible summer at 6:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
posted by invincible summer at 6:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
I mean, the most important election of our lifetime was 2016, we just fucked it up.
posted by rikschell at 6:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 6:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
posted by rikschell at 6:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [41 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 6:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [41 favorites]
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
You are missing the specific point I was trying to make. Many people here want to discuss the election. That's fine, of course! I hate the idea that this should rise up in importance to the level of blowing through the one (1) automated guardrail we have in place here. The rest of it's subjective, tagging, mod judgment, etc. I specifically chose to visit this site today because of the guardrail, as opposed to the rest of my social media apps, which are temporarily gathered together in a folder entitled "PAIN." (English, not French)
That said, you're probably right in a general sense. I should have known better than to come here today.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
You are missing the specific point I was trying to make. Many people here want to discuss the election. That's fine, of course! I hate the idea that this should rise up in importance to the level of blowing through the one (1) automated guardrail we have in place here. The rest of it's subjective, tagging, mod judgment, etc. I specifically chose to visit this site today because of the guardrail, as opposed to the rest of my social media apps, which are temporarily gathered together in a folder entitled "PAIN." (English, not French)
That said, you're probably right in a general sense. I should have known better than to come here today.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
In retrospect, the mistake of 2000 was accepting a partisan SCOTUS handing the election to Dubya on dubious grounds. I doubt the same trick will work this year, though, much as Thomas and Alito (and their spouses) would like to appoint Trump again.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
In retrospect, the mistake of 2000 was accepting a partisan SCOTUS handing the election to Dubya on dubious grounds. I doubt the same trick will work this year, though, much as Thomas and Alito (and their spouses) would like to appoint Trump again.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
Trump is a meme stock. Be like that dude from Milwaukee who goes down to Chicago bars and gets all the Packers/Bears action he can get.
posted by whuppy at 6:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Trump is a meme stock. Be like that dude from Milwaukee who goes down to Chicago bars and gets all the Packers/Bears action he can get.
posted by whuppy at 6:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
posted by mittens at 6:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
posted by mittens at 6:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Look, we elected Boris 'pants on fire' Johnson cos we really wanted our hard-as-nails Brexit and making the immigration system even crueller, followed by Liz 'Lettuce' Truss , who managed to impoverish basically everybody. It's possible Nigel 'Trump's lickspittle' Farage could hold the balance of power at the next election. We've seen some shit over this last decade, man, and the new lot aren't actually changing much cos we're flat broke, apart from the super-rich who are coining it in, of course.
*stares off into the distance, winces*
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge. Please? You deserve so much better.
Wishing you all the best with the uhh, incoming hellscape/coup attempt to deliver said hellscape. We're all rooting for you!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Look, we elected Boris 'pants on fire' Johnson cos we really wanted our hard-as-nails Brexit and making the immigration system even crueller, followed by Liz 'Lettuce' Truss , who managed to impoverish basically everybody. It's possible Nigel 'Trump's lickspittle' Farage could hold the balance of power at the next election. We've seen some shit over this last decade, man, and the new lot aren't actually changing much cos we're flat broke, apart from the super-rich who are coining it in, of course.
*stares off into the distance, winces*
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge. Please? You deserve so much better.
Wishing you all the best with the uhh, incoming hellscape/coup attempt to deliver said hellscape. We're all rooting for you!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
From the POV that good campaigns should win and bad ones lose, I just want gravity to start working again.
posted by whuppy at 6:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by whuppy at 6:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
It's an historical accident that this is not a straight run-off between two candidates. If it were, then many candidates would have already competed in a first round, and if none of them got the majority vote (50% +1), then the top two candidates survived to the last round. This would have given the US a robust multi-party system and drastically reduced the negative campaigning to a brief few weeks between only two candidates. The last round is where voters would confidently know they have already contributed to the polling method for their candidate in the first round and now can vote against a candidate in the last round without confusion or regret.
posted by Brian B. at 7:03 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 7:03 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 7:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 7:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Champaign County, Illinois was one of the counties affected by some kind of outage. Reports are that it's back up and running and officials are working to extend hours. Champaign County is home to the University of Illinois (55,000+ students).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
We're about to start getting either "Help sponsor the legal effort to protect the legitimate results" donation requests or "we have to organize to hold back this incoming shitshow" donation requests.
The texts/emails are not going to stop.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
The texts/emails are not going to stop.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
or manipulate
posted by chavenet at 7:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
or manipulate
posted by chavenet at 7:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I've been holding back some donation cash to help the post-election legal effort(s).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
“They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. Andthey absolutely will not stop… ever, until you change your number!”
posted by TwoWordReview at 7:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by TwoWordReview at 7:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
Fox livestream for those of us who also prefer a nice clear view of the oncoming train's headlight.
posted by flabdablet at 7:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
Fox livestream for those of us who also prefer a nice clear view of the oncoming train's headlight.
posted by flabdablet at 7:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
It took me 10 minutes from the time I left my front door to walking out of the polling place with my "I Voted!" sticker, and that includes surrendering my mail-in ballot to the confused poll workers who had no record of me having a mail-in ballot. (This is an issue about which I am in contact with election officials.) Everyone seems to be in a good mood and I had the opportunity to pass through the remains of last night's Harris / Walz rally on the parkway during my morning run, which was cool. I love that about running - you can do it almost anywhere!
From this point forward it is going to be an extreme challenge to stay focused at work and get anything done.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
From this point forward it is going to be an extreme challenge to stay focused at work and get anything done.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
The only thing you can deduce from that is that people who put money down at betting agencies are more likely to be Trump supporters.
posted by vacapinta at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The only thing you can deduce from that is that people who put money down at betting agencies are more likely to be Trump supporters.
posted by vacapinta at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.
Don't you know! We're only four years from the most important election of our lifetime? Donate now!
(Also the midterms, but whatevs).
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Don't you know! We're only four years from the most important election of our lifetime? Donate now!
(Also the midterms, but whatevs).
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Dr. Mrs. TheKaijuCommuter likes to tease me about how slow my ballot bubbling is, but in my defense, we had like six local bonds to vote on this year.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
My bet is that mittens means that in the face of the popularity of the incumbent Bush I, the Dems decided to go with the centrist Clinton, who then spent a good chunk of his administration implementing relatively conservative and business-friendly fiscal policies, and doing things that would alienate a lot of white blue-collar voters, who had been a core part of the Dem base until then.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
My bet is that mittens means that in the face of the popularity of the incumbent Bush I, the Dems decided to go with the centrist Clinton, who then spent a good chunk of his administration implementing relatively conservative and business-friendly fiscal policies, and doing things that would alienate a lot of white blue-collar voters, who had been a core part of the Dem base until then.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
This week is a marathon, not a sprint.
Drink water, take your meds, and...
posted by PistachioRoux at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Drink water, take your meds, and...
posted by PistachioRoux at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer.
I dunno, if the west coast polls close tonight and there hasn't been a winner declared, I'm not ruling anything out.
posted by Mayor West at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I dunno, if the west coast polls close tonight and there hasn't been a winner declared, I'm not ruling anything out.
posted by Mayor West at 7:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Sometimes I hate being aware.
posted by grubi at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by grubi at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Good luck, everyone. I can’t participate in the thread today. The stress has been already too much the last few weeks. Doomscrolling is bad. So take this as a reminder to disconnect when things seem bleak today. Take a walk, be free.
Mental health resources are available, and if the worst comes to pass:
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
And remember not to blame each other for any bad tidings. The only people responsible have an (R) after their names.
See you on the far side, hopefully with huge grins.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Mental health resources are available, and if the worst comes to pass:
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
And remember not to blame each other for any bad tidings. The only people responsible have an (R) after their names.
See you on the far side, hopefully with huge grins.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
The elementary school in Minneapolis where I vote was holding a bake sale for the people in the voting line, which was absolutely brilliant. They did a great job on the "I Voted" cookies.
Only problem is that the line was moving so quickly and efficiently, you didn't have that captive audience for very long next to the cookies and brownies and things.
posted by gimonca at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Only problem is that the line was moving so quickly and efficiently, you didn't have that captive audience for very long next to the cookies and brownies and things.
posted by gimonca at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
This year I've been throwing on nf audiobooks during the workday and I'm listening to The Destructionists this week. I could have chosen something more distracting, but it came up available at my library the day I was finishing the last book, so I queued it up.
Since my dad has been a hardcore Newt Gingrich fanboy as far back as I can remember, this book is doing a better job highlighting my own personal history of disappointment than setting dire presentments for the day. Hopefully.
posted by phunniemee at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Since my dad has been a hardcore Newt Gingrich fanboy as far back as I can remember, this book is doing a better job highlighting my own personal history of disappointment than setting dire presentments for the day. Hopefully.
posted by phunniemee at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge.
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst. Folks, the world is in trouble. I am caught up in this hype and it's shitty. The Most Etc. Yes let's defeat that fucking scumbag and never hear that voice as soon as possible. Meanwhile: billionaires, Everything Else, and the intractable tides of collapse.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst. Folks, the world is in trouble. I am caught up in this hype and it's shitty. The Most Etc. Yes let's defeat that fucking scumbag and never hear that voice as soon as possible. Meanwhile: billionaires, Everything Else, and the intractable tides of collapse.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I voted early this year, and it felt... different somehow. Maybe because it felt like democracy was on the ballot. Crossing my fingers it wasn't in vain.
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Just checked and our (overseas, mailed in) ballots were received in Tx. Oh what joy I will reap if Ted-in-real-life-I'm-also-a-shithead-Cruz is ousted from office.
The rest? I don't dare say a word.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The rest? I don't dare say a word.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
...a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.
That's excellent advice. The kind that I will, to my everlasting regret, never take.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
That's excellent advice. The kind that I will, to my everlasting regret, never take.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I have pretty bad anxiety and the top thing that unnerves the shit out of me is when people are stupid and/or mean.
This election is a rough time. Thanks for being here, everybody.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
This election is a rough time. Thanks for being here, everybody.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
I'm cautiously optimistic. The Trump campaign's gotten weird over the past couple of weeks, and not in a good way. Also, a lot of Republicans are vocally hating Trump. The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator. In any case, it's been storming here all morning, but that doesn't matter because we all voted last week. My long shot hope is that we knock out Ted Cruz. Allrad's run a better campaign than Beto did last time, so here's hoping for a miracle.
posted by Spike Glee at 7:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Spike Glee at 7:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right. The strategy worked for that one election (and one wonders, could Brown or Tsongas have won that general election anyway? Probably...). But it made leftists feel betrayed/ignored, like "both parties are the same" and turned them to apathy or the Greens. And also, leftists get blamed every time a Democrat loses.
Neither centrism nor "reaching across the aisle" has ever slowed down the Republicans from declaring every single Democrat "the most extreme socialist ever" or done anything to heal any divides or whatever.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip, but then another Clinton won the primary, then lost to Trump in the worst game of rock-paper-scissors ever... etc.
Anyway, this is history, I'm not just against TFG but for Harris (as long as we hold her feet to the fire over Palestine and some other issues). As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
posted by Foosnark at 7:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right. The strategy worked for that one election (and one wonders, could Brown or Tsongas have won that general election anyway? Probably...). But it made leftists feel betrayed/ignored, like "both parties are the same" and turned them to apathy or the Greens. And also, leftists get blamed every time a Democrat loses.
Neither centrism nor "reaching across the aisle" has ever slowed down the Republicans from declaring every single Democrat "the most extreme socialist ever" or done anything to heal any divides or whatever.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip, but then another Clinton won the primary, then lost to Trump in the worst game of rock-paper-scissors ever... etc.
Anyway, this is history, I'm not just against TFG but for Harris (as long as we hold her feet to the fire over Palestine and some other issues). As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
posted by Foosnark at 7:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
I live in a very blue part of a fairly blue state but I was still so relieved to go vote I wanted to cry. (Also, our poll workers are the kindest and most fun. I love them.)
I'm feeling weirdly optimistic along with wanting to burst into tears and possibly throw up. I don't know what will happen but I am heartened by all the good people around me who are doing all the right things.
posted by edencosmic at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I'm feeling weirdly optimistic along with wanting to burst into tears and possibly throw up. I don't know what will happen but I am heartened by all the good people around me who are doing all the right things.
posted by edencosmic at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
One of the factors giving me hope is that over the past few days, the Trump campaign has been acting like it thinks it's losing. Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I voted absentee in October, but this morning my wife headed to our local precinct and was back in minutes. She brought back a "RVA Votes" sticker featuring our very unofficial possum mascot. It's no werewolf shredding its shirt, but I'll take it.
posted by emelenjr at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by emelenjr at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I think blaming Bill Clinton for that is glossing over pretty broad centrist tendencies in that entire generation of Democratic leadership. It was many/most of them. And not only have we not been able to talk the party out of it since, we're basically having to wait for that generation to retire or die to move past it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Scenes from the Boston polls, 7:05 AM: was in line 5 minutes after the polling station opened. There were ~20 people in front of me, but the line moved pretty quickly. Notably, there were several folks wearing "Election official" ID stickers milling about the line, which I don't recall seeing in previous election cycles, but everyone was convivial. Several folks in line had their dogs with them, and raised the question of whether dogs were allowed inside or had to be tied up by the door. Neither outdoor election official seemed to know whether the voting facility (an eldercare building whose first floor converts nicely to a polling station) allowed dogs inside. Consensus was "easier to get forgiveness than permission", so two doggos accompanied my 7-year-old and I inside. Aforementioned 7-year-old was pleased with this outcome. Myself, I'm waiting for the AM radio cranks out in Worcester to run with the headlines "ELECTION OFFICIALS IGNORANT OF LAW, CHAOS AT THE POLLS, STATE DEM APPARATCHIKS IN SHAMBLES"
posted by Mayor West at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by Mayor West at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst.
Moderately right wing, same as Harris? Some small improvements to public services and not actively making cost of living worse, while leaving the super rich and multinationals to suck up ever more money as usual, not exactly enthralling over Israel?
I mean compared to the Literal Nazi Bros trying to institute an actual dictatorship by fraud on the other side in the US she's a fricking saint, but it's not like she's proposing actual radical change to the vampire capitalism monster that's eating the West alive.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Moderately right wing, same as Harris? Some small improvements to public services and not actively making cost of living worse, while leaving the super rich and multinationals to suck up ever more money as usual, not exactly enthralling over Israel?
I mean compared to the Literal Nazi Bros trying to institute an actual dictatorship by fraud on the other side in the US she's a fricking saint, but it's not like she's proposing actual radical change to the vampire capitalism monster that's eating the West alive.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Well, I just found that there's an election watch party two blocks from my house, at a Mexican restaurant that has a 100-foot screen. I'll head there after the movie and stuff myself with burritos while i watch a couple hours.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right.
Well, yeah, because the Dems had been getting slaughtered for 12 years. He took down an incumbent, which is not easy to do.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip...
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Well, yeah, because the Dems had been getting slaughtered for 12 years. He took down an incumbent, which is not easy to do.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip...
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
My hope, regarding the R hate that is finally being publicly shown toward Trump, is that they have internal polling numbers showing them as losing, and they know that it’s because they tied themselves to Trump and are going down with him. You knew what you were doing, assholes. You’ll say you didn’t have a choice, but yes you did. There’s a whole other party full of people who were able to make that choice. I hope it’s a downticket bloodbath of R losses, and I hope they choke on it.
posted by notoriety public at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
*finger pistols*
PTSD resurfacing hard, or hardly resurfacing your PTSD?
*chuckles, pounds entire carafe of coffee*
posted by cortex at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
PTSD resurfacing hard, or hardly resurfacing your PTSD?
*chuckles, pounds entire carafe of coffee*
posted by cortex at 7:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [65 favorites]
hi cortex, miss u
posted by phunniemee at 7:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
posted by phunniemee at 7:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
Pessimism of the intellect: optimism of the will.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Pessimism of the intellect: optimism of the will.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Whoever wins please spare a thought for the trans people in your community; Labour in the UK won and immediately started throwing trans people under the bus and I know we have no chance with Trump but there's no guarantee we'll be safe under Harris either, especially trans people in red states who are already in grave danger. If you see or hear people talking about how we're a distraction or a wedge issue please push back on that as well as any other forms of transphobia you encounter. We're a relatively small extremely vulnerable community and we've received a lot of negative attention and the environment that created isn't going to disappear overnight even if Harris wins as I am fervently praying she will.
posted by an octopus IRL at 7:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [77 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 7:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [77 favorites]
looks like i picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
but yes. seconding what our friendly local octopus said--things have gotten awful for trans people in the uk, and given how several democrats have accorded themselves in this election, the trust is just not there.
"things would be worse--" yes we know.
posted by i used to be someone else at 7:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
but yes. seconding what our friendly local octopus said--things have gotten awful for trans people in the uk, and given how several democrats have accorded themselves in this election, the trust is just not there.
"things would be worse--" yes we know.
posted by i used to be someone else at 7:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator
For those curious: Democrat Doug Jones represented the state of Alabama in the United States Senate from Jan 2018 through Jan 2021. I know 2021 feels like a long time ago, but it's fairly recent.
IIRC that was thanks largely to a special election where Black women turned out in force and Roy Moore had to contend with the noteworthy disadvantage of being Roy Moore.
Republicans aren't necessarily even guaranteed victory in the reddest of red states. When I voted early and got to the screen to pick between Actual Human Ted Cruz and Colin Allred I finger-stabbed the screen hard enough to shake the little privacy shield thing. So here's hoping.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 8:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
For those curious: Democrat Doug Jones represented the state of Alabama in the United States Senate from Jan 2018 through Jan 2021. I know 2021 feels like a long time ago, but it's fairly recent.
IIRC that was thanks largely to a special election where Black women turned out in force and Roy Moore had to contend with the noteworthy disadvantage of being Roy Moore.
Republicans aren't necessarily even guaranteed victory in the reddest of red states. When I voted early and got to the screen to pick between Actual Human Ted Cruz and Colin Allred I finger-stabbed the screen hard enough to shake the little privacy shield thing. So here's hoping.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 8:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won
posted by Jon_Evil at 8:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 8:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
his favorability rankings are quite high
posted by BungaDunga at 8:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
his favorability rankings are quite high
posted by BungaDunga at 8:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
Trump never expected to win in 2016, and even then barely did. He lost in 2020, and attempted a coup to stay in office. He's losing now. He has much less energy and is much more openly racist and sexist now. His base loves it, but his base has never been enough to win. There are more of us than there are of them.
Yes, he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Trump never expected to win in 2016, and even then barely did. He lost in 2020, and attempted a coup to stay in office. He's losing now. He has much less energy and is much more openly racist and sexist now. His base loves it, but his base has never been enough to win. There are more of us than there are of them.
Yes, he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won
they definitely thought they were going to lose in 2016 too. they just happened to be wrong that time
posted by BungaDunga at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
they definitely thought they were going to lose in 2016 too. they just happened to be wrong that time
posted by BungaDunga at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
our friendly local octopus
OMG this is the best way anyone has ever described me, thank you, I needed that!
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [34 favorites]
OMG this is the best way anyone has ever described me, thank you, I needed that!
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [34 favorites]
I have a picture of my 1 year old daughter helping me vote for Hillary that makes me angry every time it comes up on my timeline. I've added a picture of my 9 year old daughter helping me vote for Kamala. Please don't let me hate that picture too.
Small voting location in central NC erupted in cheers for three young men saying they were first time votes. We're deep blue enough I have to believe they voted for Harris.
My daughter, btw, said she thinks I'd make a good Vice President some day. I guess that shows who she thinks is in charge of our household lol.
posted by jermsplan at 8:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [43 favorites]
Small voting location in central NC erupted in cheers for three young men saying they were first time votes. We're deep blue enough I have to believe they voted for Harris.
My daughter, btw, said she thinks I'd make a good Vice President some day. I guess that shows who she thinks is in charge of our household lol.
posted by jermsplan at 8:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [43 favorites]
Election Day in the USA used to feel like the ending of the campaign. Today, if Trump wins, it's just another round of the fight. And, of course, if Harris wins and the right refuses to concede, it's just another round in the fight. So I'll be glad when today is over and we have a better picture of what the fight is going to be like, but I'm in this for the long haul.
Here's hoping Harris wins easily, and here's hoping the legal system holds strong, and here's hoping that the Proud Boys and their ilk get stomped if they try anything. Let's temper our hope with backup plans though because there's a whole lot of people who are going to need our help. Voting is just one of the tools.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Here's hoping Harris wins easily, and here's hoping the legal system holds strong, and here's hoping that the Proud Boys and their ilk get stomped if they try anything. Let's temper our hope with backup plans though because there's a whole lot of people who are going to need our help. Voting is just one of the tools.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
As always, I'm coping by, among other methods, reflecting on and hoping for any possible signs that the sturm und drang of the presidential election might find continuance in the much, much longer-term and lower-prominence work of organizing for long-term redress of the systemic injustices that structure our nation.
In this regard, one voice I've continually returned to in our long national nightmare is Angela Davis in Freedom Is A Constant Struggle:
Fascism, or at least its antecedents, will be with us always—to a lesser or greater extent. Would that the same be true of our erstwhile allies.
I too may not be engaged in this thread for long, needing to tend to the compassion for myself that I struggle to cultivate so that I can also be there for others.
May we all be safe. May we all have shelter and sustenance. May we all be at ease in this world.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
In this regard, one voice I've continually returned to in our long national nightmare is Angela Davis in Freedom Is A Constant Struggle:
But you can't simply invite people to join you and be immediately on board, particularly when they were not necessarily represented during the earlier organizing processes. You have to develop organizing strategies so that people identify with the particular issue as their issue.Coercive systems cannot be countered without giving people an out to get away from coercion. Resistance and justice cannot be had without seeking both/and solutions that build solidarity—and material support—to avoid people being pitted against each other.
Fascism, or at least its antecedents, will be with us always—to a lesser or greater extent. Would that the same be true of our erstwhile allies.
I too may not be engaged in this thread for long, needing to tend to the compassion for myself that I struggle to cultivate so that I can also be there for others.
May we all be safe. May we all have shelter and sustenance. May we all be at ease in this world.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
The problem with everyone trying to read the tea leaves of Trump's or his campaigns's behavior is that we have one election where he won and one where he lost and he behaved largely the same both times. He's also a highly emotion and erratic manbaby so it's impossible to say what his constant bizarre actions and words are supposed to mean.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Voted at about 7:30am this morning, a large blue city in deeply-red Rural Minnesota, bordering deeply-red North Dakota (but also bordering the blue largest city in North Dakota). Lots of people with children in tow, presumably voting on the way to school and work. Big signs on the door that no political t-shirts, caps, etc would be allowed in. A few voters in military uniforms.
The only line occurred at the "feed the paper ballot into the machine" point, because as I was finishing filling in the bubbles in my ballot booth, the machine started beeping because someone apparently fed something in wrong and it took a few minutes to get it back to working again.
The layout of the polling place was a little weird -- square in front of the entrance was a person at a table with a computer. This was just for checking that this was your correct polling place, if you weren't sure, but it seems their job was basically to tell people that if they already know this is their polling place they can go over there ---> which is where you actually got your ballot. I suspect they were secretly the "no 'lets go brandon' shirts" team too.
Cautiously optimistic for a Harris-Walz win; we just drove from here to Milwaukee and back, some of which through the rural backroads, and saw lots of Harris-Walz signs among the Trumps. All I could think is that if I lived in Wisconsin this would be an easy way to determine which businesses not to to business with in the future. Like, I don't know what the business did, but the fact they switched their big LED sign over to a "wives should vote the same as their husbands" message tells a lot about them.
My "republican-because-catholic" sister in law has done her "tired of the bad blood, leaving social media for a while" thing like she did when Biden was elected, so that also gives me confidence at the lack of confidence on that side.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
The only line occurred at the "feed the paper ballot into the machine" point, because as I was finishing filling in the bubbles in my ballot booth, the machine started beeping because someone apparently fed something in wrong and it took a few minutes to get it back to working again.
The layout of the polling place was a little weird -- square in front of the entrance was a person at a table with a computer. This was just for checking that this was your correct polling place, if you weren't sure, but it seems their job was basically to tell people that if they already know this is their polling place they can go over there ---> which is where you actually got your ballot. I suspect they were secretly the "no 'lets go brandon' shirts" team too.
Cautiously optimistic for a Harris-Walz win; we just drove from here to Milwaukee and back, some of which through the rural backroads, and saw lots of Harris-Walz signs among the Trumps. All I could think is that if I lived in Wisconsin this would be an easy way to determine which businesses not to to business with in the future. Like, I don't know what the business did, but the fact they switched their big LED sign over to a "wives should vote the same as their husbands" message tells a lot about them.
My "republican-because-catholic" sister in law has done her "tired of the bad blood, leaving social media for a while" thing like she did when Biden was elected, so that also gives me confidence at the lack of confidence on that side.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Joey Michaels is right, this is just the opening act.
Here's a public service annoucement that Democracy Docket is a good place to track litigation surrounding the election. Marc Elias is a saint and my only wish is that he gets off of Xhitter and onto Mastodon where I could follow him.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Here's a public service annoucement that Democracy Docket is a good place to track litigation surrounding the election. Marc Elias is a saint and my only wish is that he gets off of Xhitter and onto Mastodon where I could follow him.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Roy Moore had a LOT of prominent Alabama Republicans publicly refuse to vote for him, including Jeff Sessions, the outgoing Senator. (He also had a weakness for teenage girls come out during the election, which didn't help things.) Doug Jones only served one term, and was replaced by the stupidest person in the Senate, so no blue wave there.
posted by Spike Glee at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Spike Glee at 8:23 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
"Remember how great it was when gas was cheap in 2020?"
No, dipshit, it wasn't great. It was only cheap because we were in a pandemic and no one could go anywhere. It was not a policy victory in any way.
"Trump is tough; he can stop Putin."
No, fuckface, Putin felt emboldened enough to start a war because Trump cowtowed to him for four years.
And on and on.
It's not us making this decision and it's not the other side. It's the tapioca-brained shitheels who wake up from a current events coma every four years to make a huge decision for all of us based on the stupidest possible fucking factors.
We could let an inebriated preschooler make this decision and it could hardly be more fucking random.
There was a possible world where one campaign was strong enough or one lost enough momentum that one side could pull away. Neither of those things happened.
So we're stuck with total fucking turd fondlers deciding on a coin flip.
I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
"Remember how great it was when gas was cheap in 2020?"
No, dipshit, it wasn't great. It was only cheap because we were in a pandemic and no one could go anywhere. It was not a policy victory in any way.
"Trump is tough; he can stop Putin."
No, fuckface, Putin felt emboldened enough to start a war because Trump cowtowed to him for four years.
And on and on.
It's not us making this decision and it's not the other side. It's the tapioca-brained shitheels who wake up from a current events coma every four years to make a huge decision for all of us based on the stupidest possible fucking factors.
We could let an inebriated preschooler make this decision and it could hardly be more fucking random.
There was a possible world where one campaign was strong enough or one lost enough momentum that one side could pull away. Neither of those things happened.
So we're stuck with total fucking turd fondlers deciding on a coin flip.
I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
WFO in morning. Vote around Noon. WFH in afternoon. Starting media blackout around 5ish. The Friends are hosting a special meeting tonight, so I may spend some time there in the silence. For those wanting to get away from the media, it might be worth seeing if a Meeting is being held in your city.
Light and love all.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 8:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Light and love all.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 8:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
he won with a minority once already
posted by BungaDunga at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
he won with a minority once already
posted by BungaDunga at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
In total, of course. In the specific swing state elections that matter to the ultimate EC vote total? We'll have to see. Remember he did actually win once. That's not saying anything about this election, but this call back to pre-2016 confidence of inevitable loss is a bit odd.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
In total, of course. In the specific swing state elections that matter to the ultimate EC vote total? We'll have to see. Remember he did actually win once. That's not saying anything about this election, but this call back to pre-2016 confidence of inevitable loss is a bit odd.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
posted by constraint at 8:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
posted by constraint at 8:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Two comments deleted. Let's please avoid doom predictions and drive by comments downplaying the impact of these elections. Please respond appropriately to people's mood and investment in the topic and refrain from making light jokes in a serious discussion.
posted by loup (staff) at 8:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by loup (staff) at 8:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Got up early to bike to the polls this morning, here in northern Virginia. Google Maps took me on a new route, which was interesting.
Polling site was a volunteer fire department. Dem and GOP signs dotted the parking lot. A Harris table sat _just_ outside the limit, handing out sample ballots. Inside there wasn't a line. Volunteer staffers outnumbered voters. I got my ballot, hit the carrel, filled in the squares, then fed the paper into a scanner. Volunteers told me there was a steady flow of voters and no incidents. I took stickers and a selfie on the way out.
Google Maps sent my bike and I on another new route, much longer. I passed some Trump signs, then country houses (a deer watched me), then back into town and home.
posted by doctornemo at 8:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Polling site was a volunteer fire department. Dem and GOP signs dotted the parking lot. A Harris table sat _just_ outside the limit, handing out sample ballots. Inside there wasn't a line. Volunteer staffers outnumbered voters. I got my ballot, hit the carrel, filled in the squares, then fed the paper into a scanner. Volunteers told me there was a steady flow of voters and no incidents. I took stickers and a selfie on the way out.
Google Maps sent my bike and I on another new route, much longer. I passed some Trump signs, then country houses (a deer watched me), then back into town and home.
posted by doctornemo at 8:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Sorry for my (not-deleted, but still very cranky) comment above.
It's been a day already.
You're my people, though. Sending you all positive mind atoms.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
It's been a day already.
You're my people, though. Sending you all positive mind atoms.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
I'm not an expert, but it seems like polling is not going great lately--a lot of people don't answer their phones, a lot of the people that do are cranks, and a lot of pollsters seem to be correcting for these factors by either telling their clients what they want to hear, trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16, or saying 'well, after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'
(If you are an expert in polling, and you're getting ready to tell me why I'm full of crap, please do, I would genuinely welcome that.)
posted by box at 8:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
(If you are an expert in polling, and you're getting ready to tell me why I'm full of crap, please do, I would genuinely welcome that.)
posted by box at 8:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Let's please avoid doom predictions
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
posted by mittens at 8:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
posted by mittens at 8:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
let's not do that to our beloved mods
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
Red or blue? The bellwether counties that could swing the US election: Pundits are keeping a close on watch on key counties across the US whose results could play a major role in the outcome [The Guardian]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
posted by mazola at 8:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
posted by mazola at 8:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
let's not do that to our beloved mods
our what
posted by phunniemee at 8:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
our what
posted by phunniemee at 8:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
posted by jedicus at 8:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by jedicus at 8:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Voted in person in Pennsylvania at 7am. The line was out to the street but went fairly quickly, plus I got to jump ahead as one of the few people in line from my district (maybe they all voted early by mail?) and was out of there with my sticker by 7:20. I expected to cry, as I did when I voted for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, but I must be all out of tears after the past eight long years.
Here's hoping the majority my fellow Americans, in the right places (and fuck the electoral college by the way), are sane enough to elect a regular flawed politician over a literal fucking fascist.
posted by biblioPHL at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Here's hoping the majority my fellow Americans, in the right places (and fuck the electoral college by the way), are sane enough to elect a regular flawed politician over a literal fucking fascist.
posted by biblioPHL at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
he won with a minority once already
America, where everyone knows who is going to get more votes, but nobody knows who is going to win!
posted by mikesch at 8:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [53 favorites]
America, where everyone knows who is going to get more votes, but nobody knows who is going to win!
posted by mikesch at 8:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [53 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
Sheesh! Yet another undecided voter still trying to make up their mind on election day.
(Under the circumstances I recommend whatever is least likely to give you heartburn.)
posted by jedicus at 8:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Sheesh! Yet another undecided voter still trying to make up their mind on election day.
(Under the circumstances I recommend whatever is least likely to give you heartburn.)
posted by jedicus at 8:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
... and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
... and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
Reminds me of the 1955 Isaac Asimov short story "Franchise" set in a future where voting prediction has become so advanced that every election a single Voter of the Year is chosen and the election is determined based on their answers to some questions posed by the supercomputer Multivac.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
Reminds me of the 1955 Isaac Asimov short story "Franchise" set in a future where voting prediction has become so advanced that every election a single Voter of the Year is chosen and the election is determined based on their answers to some questions posed by the supercomputer Multivac.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
It's down to pepperoni or broken glass, but I feel like I just haven't heard enough about the pepperoni.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [93 favorites]
It's down to pepperoni or broken glass, but I feel like I just haven't heard enough about the pepperoni.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [93 favorites]
I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
Oh, I agree. I would still categorize a Harris vote as "harm reduction" in the sense that I'm quite certain that Trump wouldn't dream of even paying any attention to any of that non-electoral work post-election in the first place. Harris also may not do all of it - but at least she would bloody listen, you know?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
Oh, I agree. I would still categorize a Harris vote as "harm reduction" in the sense that I'm quite certain that Trump wouldn't dream of even paying any attention to any of that non-electoral work post-election in the first place. Harris also may not do all of it - but at least she would bloody listen, you know?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
Is this because the real Saint Lucia gouged her eyes out?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Is this because the real Saint Lucia gouged her eyes out?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Just sitting here with my fingers and toes crossed.
posted by bshort at 8:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by bshort at 8:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
An ideal outcome would see TFG, Musk, and a few courtiers on a plane bound for Minsk by midnight tonight.
I do not expect this to be the case.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
I do not expect this to be the case.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
Yes, Trump has ringers like Aileen Cannon in the tank for him, and Roberts, Alito, and Thomas would probably love to appoint Trump president regardless of the evidence, but I doubt the Democrats will stand for yet another partisan decision overturning the will of the majority.
The "election was rigged!" ploy didn't work in 2020 when Trump actually held the levers of power, and a number of the participants are in jail now (with Trump's own trial possibly looming if he loses, which is of course what this is all about). For a coup to work now, everyone has to gamble that the Prisoner's Dilemma will break their way -- that no one else will defect in the face of serious consequences. That bet wasn't wise in 2020 and it is less so now.
posted by Gelatin at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
Yes, Trump has ringers like Aileen Cannon in the tank for him, and Roberts, Alito, and Thomas would probably love to appoint Trump president regardless of the evidence, but I doubt the Democrats will stand for yet another partisan decision overturning the will of the majority.
The "election was rigged!" ploy didn't work in 2020 when Trump actually held the levers of power, and a number of the participants are in jail now (with Trump's own trial possibly looming if he loses, which is of course what this is all about). For a coup to work now, everyone has to gamble that the Prisoner's Dilemma will break their way -- that no one else will defect in the face of serious consequences. That bet wasn't wise in 2020 and it is less so now.
posted by Gelatin at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I’m pretty sure there isn’t a unique single person with indigestion today.
I’ve had a series of doctor’s appointments this week, which include screening questions about anxiety; why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Planning on doing one last round of door knocking this afternoon if I can get off work in time (and if the flu+covid vaccines I got yesterday aren’t acting up too much). Action fights despair.
posted by nat at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I’ve had a series of doctor’s appointments this week, which include screening questions about anxiety; why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Planning on doing one last round of door knocking this afternoon if I can get off work in time (and if the flu+covid vaccines I got yesterday aren’t acting up too much). Action fights despair.
posted by nat at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
you have to no clip out of the normal election thread to find the doomer thread.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
you have to no clip out of the normal election thread to find the doomer thread.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
The bit about "polling is broken because people don't answer their phones" -- polling was pretty accurate in predicting an Obama win in 2008 and 2012, and a lot of people had already moved away from landlines by then.
trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16
I do think this is a factor in polling potentially being off this year.
The right-wing trashpolling that flooded the polling world in 2022 has returned, too, It was quiet-ish over the summer, but it returned like a plague in October.
Plus, the people who run sites with polling averages only flag a subset of the biased polls as being partisan. We like to pick on 538 for this, but it's a wider problem at several sites. It's not that tough to smoke out the bad actors: look up their website, do they do lots of consulting in really red areas, like local sheriff races in Mississippi? Who's their CEO, does he post MAGA stuff to Twitter? Only about a third to half of the right-wing "pollsters" get a red diamond next to their name to mark them as a partisan poll.
posted by gimonca at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16
I do think this is a factor in polling potentially being off this year.
The right-wing trashpolling that flooded the polling world in 2022 has returned, too, It was quiet-ish over the summer, but it returned like a plague in October.
Plus, the people who run sites with polling averages only flag a subset of the biased polls as being partisan. We like to pick on 538 for this, but it's a wider problem at several sites. It's not that tough to smoke out the bad actors: look up their website, do they do lots of consulting in really red areas, like local sheriff races in Mississippi? Who's their CEO, does he post MAGA stuff to Twitter? Only about a third to half of the right-wing "pollsters" get a red diamond next to their name to mark them as a partisan poll.
posted by gimonca at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I dropped off my ballot and my brother's and my daughters yesterday afternoon. There was a weird cranky (he honked at me! For parking in the open space in front of him!) oldish dude in a car with a laptop open on the dash, watching the ballot drop off box like a hawk. It was creepy. But into the box went the ballots and that's done, love you Oregon. Although. I kind of miss voting in person on election day. I like the sense of community. And I like the sticker. Get with it, Oregon! Start giving us a sticker! I think I am going to make this my issue and push it statewide for the next four years.
If, that is, I am not a refugee in another, kinder country. I really hope I'm still here.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
If, that is, I am not a refugee in another, kinder country. I really hope I'm still here.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
I am naseously optimistic, but can bear thinking about the horror show that will envelop the world if the Orange Abomination succeeds in only very tiny amounts.In any sane world all the signs we are seeing should lead to a reasonable conclusion of good news coming, but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.
posted by blue shadows at 9:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by blue shadows at 9:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
> and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Can we fast forward to where the screen fades to black and lists how long they all got in prison?
posted by adept256 at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [58 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [58 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?
No, pretty much everyone hates it, but frankly people really really really need to stop complaining about this because until the Constitution is amended the Electoral College is how presidential elections happen. It's kind of amazing to me that in 2024 people are still whining about this.
The popular vote just doesn't matter under this system so why even bother talking about it? If you want to win you have to win under the current rules not the rules as you'd wish them to be. The Republicans get this. It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
No, pretty much everyone hates it, but frankly people really really really need to stop complaining about this because until the Constitution is amended the Electoral College is how presidential elections happen. It's kind of amazing to me that in 2024 people are still whining about this.
The popular vote just doesn't matter under this system so why even bother talking about it? If you want to win you have to win under the current rules not the rules as you'd wish them to be. The Republicans get this. It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Election Coup II: Electric Boogaloo
The sequels are always worse. Best avoided.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The sequels are always worse. Best avoided.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Hoping for an inverse 1984 electoral map. Expecting a repeat of the 2008 map.
posted by swift at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by swift at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
> No, pretty much everyone hates it,
For the time being, the republicans absolutely love it, because the system makes them incredibly powerful relative to their actual popularity (and that's why we still have it)
posted by dis_integration at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
For the time being, the republicans absolutely love it, because the system makes them incredibly powerful relative to their actual popularity (and that's why we still have it)
posted by dis_integration at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
If I hear one more fantastical fantasy about Trump ever seeing the inside of a prison cell, I feel like I'm going to pass out.
Where's the emoji where you hold the bridge of your nose with head bowed?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Where's the emoji where you hold the bridge of your nose with head bowed?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
posted by adept256 at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
posted by adept256 at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
I'm moderately hopeful, on the basis of Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Honestly, I think the whole "bellwether county" thing is magical thinking.
Also, I think reporters love it, because they get a free mini-vacation to, say, Door County, Wisconsin. If my boss sent me to a resort in Door County to finish up some work, sure, I'd go.
posted by gimonca at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Also, I think reporters love it, because they get a free mini-vacation to, say, Door County, Wisconsin. If my boss sent me to a resort in Door County to finish up some work, sure, I'd go.
posted by gimonca at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
> It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
ONN dropped this story:
https://youtu.be/9qI0LTmSr38
posted by torokunai at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
ONN dropped this story:
https://youtu.be/9qI0LTmSr38
posted by torokunai at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Grrr... my kid has been on line to vote in Lehigh County PA for over an hour now and no one's moving. Word is that 'some' of the voting machines are not working. People are playing chess in the line, running out to the local Burger King and back. I don't want to jump to conclusions but it sounds like a dirty trick. I'd really wanted for her first voting experience to be a good one—
posted by newdaddy at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by newdaddy at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I was just driving home from errands and a truck plastered with the words “TURDS B GONE” passed by me at a 4 way stop. I guess it’s a dog waste cleanup service but the message could not be more apt.
posted by sucre at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by sucre at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
Again, the Electoral College is the currently existing system for electing the President. I wish it weren't but it is. So it really is bizarre to keep obsessing and wasting effort over something that has no bearing on the election if you want to win the election.
"BUSH/TRUMP ONLY WON BECAUSE OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!"
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Again, the Electoral College is the currently existing system for electing the President. I wish it weren't but it is. So it really is bizarre to keep obsessing and wasting effort over something that has no bearing on the election if you want to win the election.
"BUSH/TRUMP ONLY WON BECAUSE OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!"
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
Absolutely! But the coup didn't work when Trump had the levers of power, and a bunch of them are in jail now. I expect Trump's rhetoric to lead to violence again. I just don't expect it to put him in the Oval Office now when it failed in 2020.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Absolutely! But the coup didn't work when Trump had the levers of power, and a bunch of them are in jail now. I expect Trump's rhetoric to lead to violence again. I just don't expect it to put him in the Oval Office now when it failed in 2020.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I will probably mostly stay out of this thread but I did read somewhere (Jay Kuo? Electoral-vote.com?) that on Saturday alone the Democratic volunteers knocked over a million doors.
I've never heard anything like this.
I am hoping Dobbs will turn into a massive win for Democrats. I would sure love it if we got the trifecta and used that to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights bill.
posted by kristi at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I've never heard anything like this.
I am hoping Dobbs will turn into a massive win for Democrats. I would sure love it if we got the trifecta and used that to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights bill.
posted by kristi at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
This election is not only about the possibility of fascism. It's about the possibility that Trump will begin his first steps to being out of public life forever. That's almost as good as a Kamala win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Also, the opportunity to run a second $250M "Stop the Steal" grift.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Also, the opportunity to run a second $250M "Stop the Steal" grift.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Why am I anxious?
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Why am I anxious?
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I keep seeing so many comments lately from Dems on my socials to the effect of “I can’t wait until I can stop thinking about politics for the next four years.” While I get the sentiment, I can’t help thinking that kind of thinking is a big part of how our side got into this mess in the first place.
posted by non canadian guy at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
posted by non canadian guy at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
posted by Pyry at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
I'm generally lukewarm on Adam Conover, but this was a good message for today.
Stay safe, do what you need to do today (and going forward) for your mental health, and be ready, whomever wins, to fight for your rights, and a better world.
posted by chromecow at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Stay safe, do what you need to do today (and going forward) for your mental health, and be ready, whomever wins, to fight for your rights, and a better world.
posted by chromecow at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
You know what I've just realized this moment?
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
sometimes bearing witness is all a person can do
plus, outside of this particular online bubble I fucking hope people are bringing this up with young voters constantly. clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
posted by ginger.beef at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
sometimes bearing witness is all a person can do
plus, outside of this particular online bubble I fucking hope people are bringing this up with young voters constantly. clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
posted by ginger.beef at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" yt joke yet?
Now you have to go outside, turn three times, and spit!
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Now you have to go outside, turn three times, and spit!
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
The Onion is also currently streaming BREAKING: Live Look Inside Voting Booth
posted by Catblack at 9:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Catblack at 9:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
If there's a trifecta the first three things should be:
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
posted by thecaddy at 9:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
posted by thecaddy at 9:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
I believe all those are answered in the fine article, from a far more credible and credentialed analyst than me.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I believe all those are answered in the fine article, from a far more credible and credentialed analyst than me.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
Good luck. I genuinely mean that because the EC has got to go, but amending the Constitution for any reason, let alone to remove the EC, in the current political climate is going to be harder than willing unicorns into existence.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
Good luck. I genuinely mean that because the EC has got to go, but amending the Constitution for any reason, let alone to remove the EC, in the current political climate is going to be harder than willing unicorns into existence.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Legal question/riddle from a thing I saw on Wikipedia.
Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022
But also, I heard the Trump campaign has refused to file transition plan paperwork, including some important signatures, so maybe they've already blown it? That would be very funny.
Thanks in advance to any informed election law people who care to venture an opinion.
posted by ryanrs at 9:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022
Transition fundsSo at first glance, this looks like Trump gets free money for refusing to concede for 5 days, no matter what? Lol if true.
The law allows multiple "apparent successful candidates" to receive federal presidential transition funds if more than one candidate has not conceded five days after the election. It provides guidelines for the administrator of the General Services Administration to determine when and to whom funds should be released.
But also, I heard the Trump campaign has refused to file transition plan paperwork, including some important signatures, so maybe they've already blown it? That would be very funny.
Thanks in advance to any informed election law people who care to venture an opinion.
posted by ryanrs at 9:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.
I'll be haunted by that, plus 2000, when I went to bed with Al Gore as my President and woke up the next day with George Bush the winner.
Needless to say, I'm not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight.
posted by invincible summer at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I'll be haunted by that, plus 2000, when I went to bed with Al Gore as my President and woke up the next day with George Bush the winner.
Needless to say, I'm not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight.
posted by invincible summer at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
Yelling about climate change wont change anything
Yelling about gay marriage wont change anything
Yelling about civili rights wont change anything
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
posted by WatTylerJr at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Yelling about climate change wont change anything
Yelling about gay marriage wont change anything
Yelling about civili rights wont change anything
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
posted by WatTylerJr at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Midday Check-in from the reliably, exceptionally blue sector of NC:
Anxiety Level: High. Like "for real, time to break out the benzos later" high. I closed the office today and gave the staff the day off. Mostly so I could spend as much time as possible outside (it's beautiful) watching the leaves fall and going on long walks whenever I think I'm about to have a heart attack. It does not help that my mother had cancer surgery last week at a hospital in Asheville where they still don't have potable water. She's okay (and they got it all), but Jesus Fucking Christ Flying Kites it has been several straight weeks of train coming at you stress over here on the pond. Even the cats are jumpy.
Vote Status: Did it first day of early voting. Some weird ballot hijinks over the weekend on the BOE website let to me asking three friends who are Civil Rights lawyers, the NC Voter Protection Hotline, and the staff at the polling place to help me figure it out. Short version: a vote has been counted in my name. Weird shit though. Did I overreact? Perhaps. But it's 2024
Plans: Do I go out and watch the results? Do I stay in? Why does this feel like a much bigger decision than it should be? Is superstitious bullshit genetic? This is on you, Nana.
Pizza: I'm having Carrburritos today, which is my local favorite comfort food , but if I were having pizza, I have the one with fancy mushrooms, fontina, and fennel sausage. And maybe a nice Scottish Ale or four (depending on results).
Fingers crosssed that I don't poison myself chewing on a gel manicure. Will update.
posted by thivaia at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
Anxiety Level: High. Like "for real, time to break out the benzos later" high. I closed the office today and gave the staff the day off. Mostly so I could spend as much time as possible outside (it's beautiful) watching the leaves fall and going on long walks whenever I think I'm about to have a heart attack. It does not help that my mother had cancer surgery last week at a hospital in Asheville where they still don't have potable water. She's okay (and they got it all), but Jesus Fucking Christ Flying Kites it has been several straight weeks of train coming at you stress over here on the pond. Even the cats are jumpy.
Vote Status: Did it first day of early voting. Some weird ballot hijinks over the weekend on the BOE website let to me asking three friends who are Civil Rights lawyers, the NC Voter Protection Hotline, and the staff at the polling place to help me figure it out. Short version: a vote has been counted in my name. Weird shit though. Did I overreact? Perhaps. But it's 2024
Plans: Do I go out and watch the results? Do I stay in? Why does this feel like a much bigger decision than it should be? Is superstitious bullshit genetic? This is on you, Nana.
Pizza: I'm having Carrburritos today, which is my local favorite comfort food , but if I were having pizza, I have the one with fancy mushrooms, fontina, and fennel sausage. And maybe a nice Scottish Ale or four (depending on results).
Fingers crosssed that I don't poison myself chewing on a gel manicure. Will update.
posted by thivaia at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
It seems fairly clearly now that the GOP endgame is that there are no more elections.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
It seems fairly clearly now that the GOP endgame is that there are no more elections.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
No matter who wins, we're in a moment of normalizing genocide. Remember, all of that fear of "what could happen" is happening to people right now and will continue happening under either of these candidates.
posted by iamck at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by iamck at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
I don't think any of this is true, at all.
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I had a pleasant hour-ish commute in a subway with no internet connection, but now I'm at work and the doom scrolling has begun. I don't think I have it in me resist so I'm embracing the misery for a day and thinking of it as bearing witness.
It sucks but I'm glad you're all here to commiserate. Hang in there.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 9:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
It sucks but I'm glad you're all here to commiserate. Hang in there.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 9:44 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
I'll prepare a memo with guidelines on the subject so check your inbox.
When I say it's pointless to whine and focus on the popular vote, I mean in the sense that I see here and elsewhere where people will say something like (using example numbers) "80% of the country supports access to abortion, I can't believe Trump can win not supporting it*!" But this is meaningless because what matters to winning the election is what the relevant voting populations in the swing states support and influencing that. It can in fact be actively harmful to a campaign to point to general numbers that give a false sense of confidence.
*I know recently Trump has changed his tune and now says things friendlier to abortion access.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I'll prepare a memo with guidelines on the subject so check your inbox.
When I say it's pointless to whine and focus on the popular vote, I mean in the sense that I see here and elsewhere where people will say something like (using example numbers) "80% of the country supports access to abortion, I can't believe Trump can win not supporting it*!" But this is meaningless because what matters to winning the election is what the relevant voting populations in the swing states support and influencing that. It can in fact be actively harmful to a campaign to point to general numbers that give a false sense of confidence.
*I know recently Trump has changed his tune and now says things friendlier to abortion access.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I am stress eating candy I bought for my students. Class is at two. Not sure if there will be any left by then.
posted by pangolin party at 9:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by pangolin party at 9:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
Two counter-arguments:
1. Sometimes giving people an idealized vision is the first step into making them think it's possible, and thus something to be worked towards.
2. Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Two counter-arguments:
1. Sometimes giving people an idealized vision is the first step into making them think it's possible, and thus something to be worked towards.
2. Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
The entire Dem operation is focused on seven states that will decide the Electoral College. And many thousands of liberals have abandoned their own states, some for weeks, to go to those seven states. Every dollar is being spent there, every eyeball is trained on those states.
posted by kensington314 at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
The entire Dem operation is focused on seven states that will decide the Electoral College. And many thousands of liberals have abandoned their own states, some for weeks, to go to those seven states. Every dollar is being spent there, every eyeball is trained on those states.
posted by kensington314 at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
Earlier this year, during a visit to friends in Spain, I took a side trip to BCN to do a two-day working interview with a colleague there juuust in case TFG wins. May these frantic months of brushing up on Castillan Spanish and learning Catalan be una pèrdua de temps*.
A waste of time
posted by chainringtattoo at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
A waste of time
posted by chainringtattoo at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
Sorry, EC.
You can expect me to vacillate wildly between, "Keep strong, dear ones!" and "Every single solitary one of us is well and truly fucked" all damn day.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Sorry, EC.
You can expect me to vacillate wildly between, "Keep strong, dear ones!" and "Every single solitary one of us is well and truly fucked" all damn day.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
I am in an MA programme in London with a bunch of swing-state voters who remarked on how quiet their experience of this election was. I was always a West Coast voter, so I never got the Michigan level treatment, but it sounds absolutely exhausting.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I do believe Trump could solve the housing crisis in America. So many people would be moving out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Small town rustbelt update:
A few days ago, a Harris/Walz door-knocker drove up from DC, at least a couple hundred miles travel.
Another this morning all the way from TX.
We're all still anticipating a coin toss, Schrodinger's WTF, but we're also still seeing as many Harris signs as Trump, in a region where MAGA had previously been comfortably loud and proud and excessive.
My better half and I voted at noon, at a church around the corner, under five minutes total, remarkable only for the contrast between banality and such gravity. It's a stunningly beautiful autumn day here, for whatever that's worth.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 9:56 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
A few days ago, a Harris/Walz door-knocker drove up from DC, at least a couple hundred miles travel.
Another this morning all the way from TX.
We're all still anticipating a coin toss, Schrodinger's WTF, but we're also still seeing as many Harris signs as Trump, in a region where MAGA had previously been comfortably loud and proud and excessive.
My better half and I voted at noon, at a church around the corner, under five minutes total, remarkable only for the contrast between banality and such gravity. It's a stunningly beautiful autumn day here, for whatever that's worth.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 9:56 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Remember not to be disheartened by The Red Mirage, and to stand up for a full count of the votes so The Blue Shift can finish.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Thivaia, since I think you and I live in the same town (alongside caviar2d2), I'd like to let you know that Cedar Falls Park is especially lovely today. I walked out there earlier to say hi to my coworkers who had taken the day off and were letting their kids run around the playground.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
It's true that most pollsters have used models to try to capture the Trump undercount that happened in 2016 and 2020. But it isn't yet clear whether they did enough to get there, just the right amount, or not enough.
The fact that they weighted up Trump votes doesn't imply that they will miss in our favor this time around. Trump could still outperform the polls and clean up. Or underperform and lose big. We just don't know.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
It's true that most pollsters have used models to try to capture the Trump undercount that happened in 2016 and 2020. But it isn't yet clear whether they did enough to get there, just the right amount, or not enough.
The fact that they weighted up Trump votes doesn't imply that they will miss in our favor this time around. Trump could still outperform the polls and clean up. Or underperform and lose big. We just don't know.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
Oh my gods, I couldn't possibly agree more. The minute someone posts a video or meme from TWW on my feed, my esteem for them drops like a rock. It's like The Worst faux representation of reality.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Oh my gods, I couldn't possibly agree more. The minute someone posts a video or meme from TWW on my feed, my esteem for them drops like a rock. It's like The Worst faux representation of reality.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The site banner seems pretty appropriate today: USA MeFites, go vote (hide)
posted by mittens at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
posted by mittens at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Spaghetti and meatballs tonight. And garlic bread.
Nervous but ran into neighbors who voted today. 1+ hour wait in blue Ohio. Hoping Ohio can pull out some magic after the GOP fuckery with Issue 1 and our big push to secure abortion rights in the state constitution in 2023.
Take care of each other today. Thanks for being here, Blue.
posted by glaucon at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Nervous but ran into neighbors who voted today. 1+ hour wait in blue Ohio. Hoping Ohio can pull out some magic after the GOP fuckery with Issue 1 and our big push to secure abortion rights in the state constitution in 2023.
Take care of each other today. Thanks for being here, Blue.
posted by glaucon at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Regarding the popular vote thing - Congratulations on your touchdown, we’re playing basketball unfortunately
posted by thedaniel at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by thedaniel at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
A lot of people took solace in The West Wing when GWB was president, leading the country down a dark place. I just moved abroad. About the same level of abdication, really.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I just can't get Rush's 'Bastille Day' out of my head today for some reason.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2024
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2024
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
(thanks, carry on)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
(thanks, carry on)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts. Remember Pod Save America? I used to listen to that until it became a poll show, just three men discussing fantasy percentages of imaginary demographics. What do middle class white college educated women think about the Taylor Swift endorsement? Let's break these bullshit numbers down!
The numbers are bullshit, ok? Meaningless. It's lazy journalism. The guilty secret of pollsters is that their results come from the type of people that answer polls. People that do internet surveys and answer rando phonecalls.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
The numbers are bullshit, ok? Meaningless. It's lazy journalism. The guilty secret of pollsters is that their results come from the type of people that answer polls. People that do internet surveys and answer rando phonecalls.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Here Alan Lichtman explains on CNN's Insight with Haslinda Amin why he continues to predict that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win this election.
I lost the link where Walz himself interviews Lichtman but will post it when I find it. But be my guest if one of you finds it first. It was a very interesting discussion.
posted by y2karl at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I lost the link where Walz himself interviews Lichtman but will post it when I find it. But be my guest if one of you finds it first. It was a very interesting discussion.
posted by y2karl at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Just a moment here to raise a toast to all of my fellow deluded assholes who thought that if they could just prove TFG had committed a bunch of crimes then maybe he would be in jail and/or not run.
That was some tasty fantasizing we did, y'all!
(sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
That was some tasty fantasizing we did, y'all!
(sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetche".. So let's look at the amygdala.."
posted by pepcorn at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetche".. So let's look at the amygdala.."
posted by pepcorn at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
It felt like it was several Saturdays later.
I remember going out on my front porch when it was announced and our nice neighbor across the street walked out onto hers at the same time and jubilantly threw her arms in the air and went, “YES! FUCK. YES!!!!”
We kind of stared at each other smiling for a minute then I went back inside. What a day.
posted by glaucon at 10:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
I remember going out on my front porch when it was announced and our nice neighbor across the street walked out onto hers at the same time and jubilantly threw her arms in the air and went, “YES! FUCK. YES!!!!”
We kind of stared at each other smiling for a minute then I went back inside. What a day.
posted by glaucon at 10:21 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts.
On a related note, Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading to try and divine Trump's future.
Her first card for Trump, the 5 of Cups drawn upright, signifies a sense of "loss, grief, unwelcome change, disappointment, and/or emotional suffering."
posted by delfin at 10:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [41 favorites]
On a related note, Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading to try and divine Trump's future.
Her first card for Trump, the 5 of Cups drawn upright, signifies a sense of "loss, grief, unwelcome change, disappointment, and/or emotional suffering."
posted by delfin at 10:27 AM on November 5, 2024 [41 favorites]
For him that could describe either a loss or a win.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:29 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Semi-related... working on an AskMe. Here's what I have so far:
Title: OH MY GAWD
Question: Holy shit y'all, how do I even today? WTF WTF WTF how the hell. Chrisfuckingsakes, goddam goddam. [Hyperventilating noises]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Title: OH MY GAWD
Question: Holy shit y'all, how do I even today? WTF WTF WTF how the hell. Chrisfuckingsakes, goddam goddam. [Hyperventilating noises]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
busted_crayons: "checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia"."
Still catching up on this thread, but the tags are all mine. I usually do a pass at the very end, going through the post and adding topics as they appear. But after mostly finishing it last night, I added another round of news links eeearly this morning and didn't think to add more tags (hence no SNL, Texas, Vaccines, etc.). I'll try to update the list later when I'm not on my phone.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia"."
Still catching up on this thread, but the tags are all mine. I usually do a pass at the very end, going through the post and adding topics as they appear. But after mostly finishing it last night, I added another round of news links eeearly this morning and didn't think to add more tags (hence no SNL, Texas, Vaccines, etc.). I'll try to update the list later when I'm not on my phone.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I voted last Saturday, but my place of employment has a policy of letting people out to vote and leaving them clocked in while they do, so that's nice and several coworkers are taking advantage of it.
I'm still hoping I can avoid obsessively hitting refresh on the news sites tonight.
posted by sotonohito at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I'm still hoping I can avoid obsessively hitting refresh on the news sites tonight.
posted by sotonohito at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
DOT, there's a thread for that.
Ah, that helps.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Ah, that helps.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
a friend texted this to me from Threads, from Amy Siskind (not sure her sourcing)
amy_siskind
6m6 minutes ago
Holy cow! 🔥🔥🔥
Philadelphia is estimated to be at 71.3% of total 2020 turnout as of 11:17 AM EST
Votes So Far in 2024: 528,900
2020 Total Votes: 741,377
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm, so whis would not include any of those 1.9 million votes, 56% of which came from registered Dems and 11% from independents.
posted by kensington314 at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
amy_siskind
6m6 minutes ago
Holy cow! 🔥🔥🔥
Philadelphia is estimated to be at 71.3% of total 2020 turnout as of 11:17 AM EST
Votes So Far in 2024: 528,900
2020 Total Votes: 741,377
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm, so whis would not include any of those 1.9 million votes, 56% of which came from registered Dems and 11% from independents.
posted by kensington314 at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
Yeah, this, it's the people that care the least that get to decide for the rest of us. The fuck.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
Yeah, this, it's the people that care the least that get to decide for the rest of us. The fuck.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
(Anyone wanting a little reassurance about the polls and how they're actually not very predictive these days may want to look at my MeFi Projects post, Problems with Polls, especially the stuff under "Looking at Other Data Instead of Polls." )
I haven't had a chance yet to add today's update from the poll nerds at electoral-vote.com, which includes this:
posted by kristi at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I haven't had a chance yet to add today's update from the poll nerds at electoral-vote.com, which includes this:
it is very hard to filter out biases, wishful thinking, etc. This said, neither one of us has particular confidence in the polls this year, which is why we commenced the series on issues/concerns with polling. And, truth be told, we would have written about five more items in that series, but we ran out of time. There are a lot of facts on the ground that are very difficult to reconcile with the polling. For example, what about Kamala Harris' much stronger ground game? What about Harris' (apparent) much greater enthusiasm, as indicated by raising over $1 billion, in particular? Are we really to believe that substantial numbers of Black and brown men moved in Trump's direction, after having voted for two Democrats (one of them a woman) in the past two cycles? How could Harris be doing substantially worse than Joe Biden, given the tail winds provided by the abortion issue?The polls have been wrong a lot in the past few years. Here's hoping the actual results show a clear win (wins, up and down the ballot).
posted by kristi at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Maybe we should have metafilter chat going for simple venting or connecting. (I see three people there, though they are not commenting recently, other than me.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I am not an extreme poll skeptic but I'm a soft poll skeptic, and whenever I look under the hood of a poll a lot of the efforts at "data science" have the more distinct feel of "darts thrown at a board." Caveat: I am not a statistician or modeler of any sort of data.
Anyway, I don't think we know things are a tie. I think the polls have created an epistemic sense that there is a tie, and we should all downgrade that sense to the status of shrug emoji. We'll know if it was a tie when the votes are counted. Til then we have the facts on the ground, of which there are many in both directions, and they are badly reported by most news sites, in favor of copy-pasting polling data.
posted by kensington314 at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I am not an extreme poll skeptic but I'm a soft poll skeptic, and whenever I look under the hood of a poll a lot of the efforts at "data science" have the more distinct feel of "darts thrown at a board." Caveat: I am not a statistician or modeler of any sort of data.
Anyway, I don't think we know things are a tie. I think the polls have created an epistemic sense that there is a tie, and we should all downgrade that sense to the status of shrug emoji. We'll know if it was a tie when the votes are counted. Til then we have the facts on the ground, of which there are many in both directions, and they are badly reported by most news sites, in favor of copy-pasting polling data.
posted by kensington314 at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
4. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
posted by rikschell at 10:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [56 favorites]
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
4. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
posted by rikschell at 10:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [56 favorites]
The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
posted by nobody at 10:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
posted by nobody at 10:45 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
See also Eric Garcia in the Independent: I followed Harris and Trump round North Carolina. It’s clear to me who’s going to win
posted by y2karl at 10:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 10:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Capitol Police: "Our officers just arrested a man who was stopped during our screening process at the Capitol Visitor Center (CVC). The man smelled like fuel, had a torch & a flare gun." I hope it will get no worse, but I fear it will. Thanks to the Capitol Police and all other law enforcement who are working to avert another Jan 6.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading
Basically, we're living in a scene-by-scene remake of "Network", from 1976.
posted by gimonca at 10:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Basically, we're living in a scene-by-scene remake of "Network", from 1976.
posted by gimonca at 10:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
(4. Statehood for DC
5. Amend Jones Act to apply only to the continental48 49 states
6. Statehood for PR if PR residents vote for it)
posted by thecaddy at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
5. Amend Jones Act to apply only to the continental
6. Statehood for PR if PR residents vote for it)
posted by thecaddy at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Have we discussed on the blue the recent, low-key push to bring low information/apolitical male voters over to Harris by placing ads on Pornhub, et al. advising them that Trump (via Project 2025) intends to ban pornography?
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
That makes sense, and why so many of the polls are so close together.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
RE: that Eric Garcia piece, reading that actually made me weep with anticipatory relief. If Harris actually wins NC (my poor embattled state), I plan to lie down and cry for like a week.
posted by rikschell at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s). I'm in the bluest of blue counties in the bluest of blue states so my vote won't move any needles but I got the sticker and the pen and the selfie. I'm going to a bar later with my partner because he wants to be with people if the news is bad (though I know we likely won't know tonight).
posted by matcha action at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
posted by matcha action at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
My husband and I live in Washington and found some third-party voters in Pennsylvania to vote swap with. So that's two more Harris votes in Pennsylvania from us, and two more votes for some obscure Socialist in Washington from our vote-swapping partners who were delighted with the opportunity to vote for a candidate who didn't even make it onto the ballot in their state.
Other than that, we both voted a straight Dem ticket despite that feeling very weird after 20+ years of Libertarian Party activism. But we know how to prioritize: Defeat fascism now, bicker about tax policy later.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Other than that, we both voted a straight Dem ticket despite that feeling very weird after 20+ years of Libertarian Party activism. But we know how to prioritize: Defeat fascism now, bicker about tax policy later.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
On Tyranny: Twenty lessons from the Twentieth Century by Timothy Snyder. It's a bus-stop read about resisting tyranny. Well worth a read for what we need to do on Wednesday, and Thursday, and all the days, regardless of the outcome. Youtube series narrated by the author.
Lesson titles for the unclicking:
1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10. Believe in truth.
11 . Investigate.
12. Make eye contact and small talk.
13. Practice corporeal politics.
14. Establish a private life.
15. Contribute to good causes.
16. Learn from peers in other countries.
17. Listen for dangerous words.
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19. Be a patriot.
20. Be as courageous as you can
I hope you find this as useful as I have. Timothy does great work but I would avoid reading Blood Lands at this moment.
posted by adept256 at 10:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
Lesson titles for the unclicking:
1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10. Believe in truth.
11 . Investigate.
12. Make eye contact and small talk.
13. Practice corporeal politics.
14. Establish a private life.
15. Contribute to good causes.
16. Learn from peers in other countries.
17. Listen for dangerous words.
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19. Be a patriot.
20. Be as courageous as you can
I hope you find this as useful as I have. Timothy does great work but I would avoid reading Blood Lands at this moment.
posted by adept256 at 10:57 AM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
And... Maggie Haberman shares where Trump campaign stands on Election Day tldr: they're sweating bullets.
posted by y2karl at 10:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 10:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.
I'm gonna need a bigger pizza.
posted by mazola at 10:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I'm gonna need a bigger pizza.
posted by mazola at 10:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
And more booze.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I chose to get a covid/flu double-vax last night so I'd guarantee feeling like absolute crap all day. It worked! I'm just having a miserable time and either that'll feel prophetic or waking up tomorrow (ish) to good news will feel like a total resurrection. Truly I am a genius (/sarcasm)
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
There are tactics that Johnson can employ before then, if he acts in concert with corrupt state legislatures. Elie Mystal laid out one version of it in a recent column; essentially, an R state lege would stall a Harris certification based on "obvious fraud," Johnson would refuse to do what Pelosi did in 2020 and allow for extension of certification deadlines, and Johnson would then shrug and say "That state failed to provide valid electors for any candidate, so they will not be counted."
It is not One Weird Trick that can simply flip the election with ease, of course. There are many other factors involved -- Governors, Secretaries of State, lawsuits, court rulings, and the necessity of complete buy-in from all of those involved in the theft. Not all Republicans on state legislatures will go along with every filthy stunt that Ivan Raiklin or Roger Stone can think up. The public outcry would be stupendous. There are plenty of people who favor Trump as POTUS who are not prepared to (quite literally) go to jail if a legal-coup attempt fails.
But one must never take their eyes completely off of bastards like these. Team Harris's lawyers certainly won't.
posted by delfin at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
There are tactics that Johnson can employ before then, if he acts in concert with corrupt state legislatures. Elie Mystal laid out one version of it in a recent column; essentially, an R state lege would stall a Harris certification based on "obvious fraud," Johnson would refuse to do what Pelosi did in 2020 and allow for extension of certification deadlines, and Johnson would then shrug and say "That state failed to provide valid electors for any candidate, so they will not be counted."
It is not One Weird Trick that can simply flip the election with ease, of course. There are many other factors involved -- Governors, Secretaries of State, lawsuits, court rulings, and the necessity of complete buy-in from all of those involved in the theft. Not all Republicans on state legislatures will go along with every filthy stunt that Ivan Raiklin or Roger Stone can think up. The public outcry would be stupendous. There are plenty of people who favor Trump as POTUS who are not prepared to (quite literally) go to jail if a legal-coup attempt fails.
But one must never take their eyes completely off of bastards like these. Team Harris's lawyers certainly won't.
posted by delfin at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.
Best of all, there was an ice cream truck parked out side giving out free cones to everyone with an I Voted sticker.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
Best of all, there was an ice cream truck parked out side giving out free cones to everyone with an I Voted sticker.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:04 AM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
As a Canadian living less than 10km from the border, I feel like I want to say something... but I'm not sure what. We're stressed up here too, but clearly it's not comparable to what you're going through. Those of us hiding up north will make it through the next four years regardless of what happens (with a bruise or several, but we'll survive), and I sincerely hope ya'll do too.
Hoping with all the hope I have that I will be celebrating with you all soon. I wish I could do more.
posted by cgg at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Hoping with all the hope I have that I will be celebrating with you all soon. I wish I could do more.
posted by cgg at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020.
Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
posted by ocschwar at 11:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
posted by ocschwar at 11:07 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
In NC, Carrboro/Chapel Hill have long been safely blue but I'm telling you this year is different. Like Dems figured out there's a difference between "safely blue" and "huge turnout blue because we're winning this fucking state."
Doug Emhoff was in Carrboro 2 weeks ago. My daughter's school dismissal was messed up on Friday because Jill Biden was in Carrboro. Democrats aren't fucking around with NC, they are taking it.
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
(Tofu Tuesday is already the best day to get Carrburritos, so that's just a cherry on top, thivaia)
posted by jermsplan at 11:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
Doug Emhoff was in Carrboro 2 weeks ago. My daughter's school dismissal was messed up on Friday because Jill Biden was in Carrboro. Democrats aren't fucking around with NC, they are taking it.
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
(Tofu Tuesday is already the best day to get Carrburritos, so that's just a cherry on top, thivaia)
posted by jermsplan at 11:08 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.
Per this person who claims to be getting info from a friend in the Harris campaign in DC, some parts of Philly were already at 100% of 2020 turnout by just after lunchtime. Also, turnout demographics are looking like 2022 everywhere.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Per this person who claims to be getting info from a friend in the Harris campaign in DC, some parts of Philly were already at 100% of 2020 turnout by just after lunchtime. Also, turnout demographics are looking like 2022 everywhere.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
If Democrats manage to take the house (and get seated as the new majority) then electoral vote count shenanigans become very difficult as Speaker Jeffries can just decide not to count votes and let Harris as VP become president on March 4. (Amendment 12).
If Republicans hold on to the house I will be very nervous if it is at all close.
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
posted by being_quiet at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
If Republicans hold on to the house I will be very nervous if it is at all close.
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
posted by being_quiet at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
so which is it? :)
I know: Why not both?
posted by martin q blank at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
so which is it? :)
I know: Why not both?
posted by martin q blank at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?
Don't forget, our health care was saved by one vote in Congress.
posted by Melismata at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Don't forget, our health care was saved by one vote in Congress.
posted by Melismata at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020. Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
I think she's going to crush him so hard that it's a clear Harris victory this evening.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
I think she's going to crush him so hard that it's a clear Harris victory this evening.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky (which you can skip straight to, if you like). These are films about violent Neo-Nazis who make the mistake of fucking with Becky, the world's angriest, most vicious, most vindictive teenage girl.
They're like the Home Alone movies if instead of two bumbling burglars, it had the villains from Green Room, and if instead of Kevin McAllister tricking them into stepping on nails, a cackling teenage girl brutally murdered them.
So it's a good time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
They're like the Home Alone movies if instead of two bumbling burglars, it had the villains from Green Room, and if instead of Kevin McAllister tricking them into stepping on nails, a cackling teenage girl brutally murdered them.
So it's a good time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
Much will come down to the Senate. If the Republicans reclaim the majority, none of the above will happen at least until the next election.
If the Democrats hold, which I hope, the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone, and Sinema for one will have lost her seat for blocking legislation favorable to Democrats.
I hope another lavishly funded gadfly does not emerge to deny the Democrats a governing majority.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Much will come down to the Senate. If the Republicans reclaim the majority, none of the above will happen at least until the next election.
If the Democrats hold, which I hope, the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone, and Sinema for one will have lost her seat for blocking legislation favorable to Democrats.
I hope another lavishly funded gadfly does not emerge to deny the Democrats a governing majority.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s).
Thank you, fellow citizen!
And to the rest of you (all) who voted.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Thank you, fellow citizen!
And to the rest of you (all) who voted.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
ProPublica (@ProPublica@newsie.social)
It’s Election Day! ProPublica reporters live & work in 26 states. Today, our reporters are on the ground, on the lookout for what’s going right and what isn’t.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:18 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Got a tip? Contact us at propublica.org/tips
You can also text, call or Signal message us: 917-512-0201
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I've said for a while now (if not here) that Trump is the only reason this race is close. Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
This is a year much like 2022 that should have been at least a low-grade blowout for the Republicans but, like then, they fucked themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I've said for a while now (if not here) that Trump is the only reason this race is close. Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
This is a year much like 2022 that should have been at least a low-grade blowout for the Republicans but, like then, they fucked themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
A blog post that prompted Discourse Blog to say 'I’m not sure what the point of this is, except to demonstrate conclusively on the eve of an enormously important election that the voting public is comprised of the dumbest people you could possibly imagine':
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024 (YouGov)
posted by box at 11:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024 (YouGov)
posted by box at 11:24 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
The electoral college realistically won't go away, but uncapping the House of Representatives from the current limit of 435 can solve its most glaring problem (and only requires passing a law, not an amendment). I don't have a link handy to the analysis, but someone re-tallied electoral votes for every presidential election under the assumption that the House were sized with the cube root of the population (which would put it upper 600s / low 700s for now). With that apportionment, every electoral vote agrees with the popular vote. Uncap the House!
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 11:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 11:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that, because most voters actually experience all prices as a source of pain. The inflation ain't her fault obviously.
Agree with GCUSaFoG that Trump probably was the worst possible Republican candidate in this environment. So I still think Harris will eke it out.
posted by kensington314 at 11:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that, because most voters actually experience all prices as a source of pain. The inflation ain't her fault obviously.
Agree with GCUSaFoG that Trump probably was the worst possible Republican candidate in this environment. So I still think Harris will eke it out.
posted by kensington314 at 11:25 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
With Elmo's gone, is it really Carrboro?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
With Elmo's gone, is it really Carrboro?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
BTW, I know we had a thread on this already, but: If you're looking for a place to track results tonight, let me recommend DecisionDeskHQ.
Ignore the cheesy name; they have some of the smartest people in data journalism and are sort of the contract-out elections data analysis house for a lot of news organizations.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Ignore the cheesy name; they have some of the smartest people in data journalism and are sort of the contract-out elections data analysis house for a lot of news organizations.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that
The trouble is that deflation is much, much worse than inflation, even if it feels better from a sticker-shock-at-the-grocery-store perspective.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The trouble is that deflation is much, much worse than inflation, even if it feels better from a sticker-shock-at-the-grocery-store perspective.
The TLDR is that when you have a change to aggregate demand prices must move to offset this - including wages. Upward changes aren't really any issue, because hey, who doesn't like to be paid more (even if it's just nominal)? However, individuals are extremely hesitant to accept lower nominal wages and this "stickiness" results in employers having to fire people because they cannot afford to retain them at those elevated wages, so in return you end up with significant unemployment. This can also cause a vicious cycle because if people have little to no income because they lost their job they will be more hesitant to spend and this can cause a greater shock to aggregate demand.(via)
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Does anyone know if Jimmy Carter was able to cast his vote? Last I heard, he was trying to stay alive long enough to make it happen.
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 11:30 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
ProPublica seems pretty great. Pretty sure we give them money every year.
OTOH, I keep getting messages on my phone/email about how TFG is outspending us and can you chip in? WTF
It's over, mostly. There is very little money that needs to be spent at this point. Just, make the notifications stop! (don't text back "STOP", just block and wait for the next number...)
The amount of emails I have gotten from Kamala, Tim, Barack, just wow. I assume we are on first name basis now.
Disappointed he didn't show up at Homecoming/Parents weekend. I was there. Would have been pretty hard to deal with if I were hanging in the quad, waiting for my next class, and Barack and Michelle were just chillin there.
We're down to like 4 hours now? Going to be a long 4 hours. Not going to go pick up pizza.
posted by Windopaene at 11:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
OTOH, I keep getting messages on my phone/email about how TFG is outspending us and can you chip in? WTF
It's over, mostly. There is very little money that needs to be spent at this point. Just, make the notifications stop! (don't text back "STOP", just block and wait for the next number...)
The amount of emails I have gotten from Kamala, Tim, Barack, just wow. I assume we are on first name basis now.
Disappointed he didn't show up at Homecoming/Parents weekend. I was there. Would have been pretty hard to deal with if I were hanging in the quad, waiting for my next class, and Barack and Michelle were just chillin there.
We're down to like 4 hours now? Going to be a long 4 hours. Not going to go pick up pizza.
posted by Windopaene at 11:31 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Jimmy Carter did manage to vote, yes.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
Practice self-care today, y'all. I went with a meatless dog for lunch.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Jimmy Carter, at age 100, casts his 2024 ballot by mail (AP, Oct. 16)
posted by box at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
posted by box at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices,
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting. They seem to have landed on a "you just don't get it, the economy is actually doing great" approach.
Like naw man, I don't give a shit that the rate of inflation is apparently back down to normal levels or that macroeconomic indicators show the economy is strong in the aggregate. I care that grocery shopping or buying supplies for my baby are expensive as fuck. Stop telling me I'm stupid for worrying about that.
posted by star gentle uterus at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting. They seem to have landed on a "you just don't get it, the economy is actually doing great" approach.
Like naw man, I don't give a shit that the rate of inflation is apparently back down to normal levels or that macroeconomic indicators show the economy is strong in the aggregate. I care that grocery shopping or buying supplies for my baby are expensive as fuck. Stop telling me I'm stupid for worrying about that.
posted by star gentle uterus at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024
I'm as surprised as these people are that Calliou voted for Cornel West
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
I'm as surprised as these people are that Calliou voted for Cornel West
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
If memory serves me right Carter early voted, so yes, he made it. And hopefully he will live to see Harris win this election, as well.
posted by Gelatin at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Well, I voted. I was a bit surprised to see a lady in a Harris shirt in my 80+% Trump voting location (I guess Trump/Harris apparel is OK in PA polling places). Unfortunately, my mother voted for Trump, which just reminded me that a reluctant vote for Trump counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote for Harris. I continue to be pessimistic.
posted by dirigibleman at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 11:33 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Mailed in my ballot weeks ago. For dealing with my nerves today, my motto's going to be: "Drink early and drink often!"
posted by lock robster at 11:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 11:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I was just going to post about self-care. (Not doing great btw)
Even if all the bad things happen, we will still be able to make things better. We need you to help!
posted by Windopaene at 11:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Even if all the bad things happen, we will still be able to make things better. We need you to help!
posted by Windopaene at 11:34 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
A Steve Kornacki Elections Feed (Bluesky)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
posted by ginger.beef at 11:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
punk? country?
posted by ginger.beef at 11:35 AM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Picking up my wife after work to go vote here in NC. Turnout in our county is usually pretty low, so I’m not expecting to have a long wait.
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:36 AM on November 5, 2024
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:36 AM on November 5, 2024
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting.
Harris talks about price gouging, the price of groceries, money for new parents, etc so I've found the messaging to be quite excellent. 🤟
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Harris talks about price gouging, the price of groceries, money for new parents, etc so I've found the messaging to be quite excellent. 🤟
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
punk? country?
Punktry. Maybe like Mojo Nixon or something.
posted by grubi at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Punktry. Maybe like Mojo Nixon or something.
posted by grubi at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Mrs. Example and I are dual citizens living here in the UK. We voted absentee a couple of months ago, so our work is done for now.
I never eat pizza (because I feel a little gross afterwards from the cheese), but we have ordered in and eaten pizza and have laid in a good supply of alcohol. There will be cookies later.
We've declared a moratorium tonight on our TV watching--no crime shows, no grim dramas, and absolutely no live streaming of election results (not least because it'll be really late and I have to work in the morning). The highlight of tonight's viewing is The Great British Bake Off. There may be a little Wallace and Gromit.
It's still not ideal circumstances, but I think we've managed as well as we can. Good luck to us all.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I never eat pizza (because I feel a little gross afterwards from the cheese), but we have ordered in and eaten pizza and have laid in a good supply of alcohol. There will be cookies later.
We've declared a moratorium tonight on our TV watching--no crime shows, no grim dramas, and absolutely no live streaming of election results (not least because it'll be really late and I have to work in the morning). The highlight of tonight's viewing is The Great British Bake Off. There may be a little Wallace and Gromit.
It's still not ideal circumstances, but I think we've managed as well as we can. Good luck to us all.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
Definitely punk. Specifically the Linda Lindas.
posted by susiswimmer at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
posted by Windopaene at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I threw out the candy I was bolting. I used a single moment of strength to defeat countless moments of weakness. I will probably find a loud movie or viddy game later.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I thought there was no light-hearted election analysis until I saw How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024. But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
punk? country?
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump FFS.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump FFS.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
I see your Archie and I raise you a 12% Knope for Trump. yyyyyyyyyyyyeahkNOPE
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I see your Archie and I raise you a 12% Knope for Trump. yyyyyyyyyyyyeahkNOPE
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
punk? country?
Beat Farmers
my mom came out and voted for *****
hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
posted by flabdablet at 11:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Beat Farmers
my mom came out and voted for *****
hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
posted by flabdablet at 11:43 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
Well if you don’t have Mojo Nixon, your store could use some fixin
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
Well if you don’t have Mojo Nixon, your store could use some fixin
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
They way they sneak 'Exodus' into the song kills me every time I hear it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
They way they sneak 'Exodus' into the song kills me every time I hear it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone
I have good news and bad news!
Good news: Dan Osborn has a chance of winning the Nebraska Senate race as an independent.
Bad news: He's said he "won't caucus with Democrats or Republicans", and he could be a pivotal vote in an evenly-divided Senate. Whether he becomes the new Manchinema remains to be seen.
posted by gimonca at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I have good news and bad news!
Good news: Dan Osborn has a chance of winning the Nebraska Senate race as an independent.
Bad news: He's said he "won't caucus with Democrats or Republicans", and he could be a pivotal vote in an evenly-divided Senate. Whether he becomes the new Manchinema remains to be seen.
posted by gimonca at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The big thing I took away from the "fictional characters voting" article is that even Trump supporters think that the Joker would vote for Trump. I have no clue what that means, but it surely means something.
(Also, it is surely not the case that every villain would vote for Trump. Hannibal Lecter would clearly be a Harris voter.)
posted by heraplem at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
(Also, it is surely not the case that every villain would vote for Trump. Hannibal Lecter would clearly be a Harris voter.)
posted by heraplem at 11:47 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
It's not Carrburritos, but Roxy the dog was pretty pleased to get a Sunrise biscuit this morning. I think the most interesting sign I've seen around here is a skeleton holding a sign that said, "The other guys are CREEPY!"
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Blanche Deveraux is too high and Hank Hill is too low.
posted by biblioPHL at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by biblioPHL at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
He passed this year. RIP. A frikkin' legend gone too early.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
He passed this year. RIP. A frikkin' legend gone too early.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:
profits vs wages, 2009 = 100
I’m on my phone so can’t be arsed to create a “jobs” graph, but on the national aggregate level the job market has never been so favorable (I suspect the boomer retirement wave is a very nice tailwind now)…
posted by torokunai at 11:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
profits vs wages, 2009 = 100
I’m on my phone so can’t be arsed to create a “jobs” graph, but on the national aggregate level the job market has never been so favorable (I suspect the boomer retirement wave is a very nice tailwind now)…
posted by torokunai at 11:49 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
My Mama Voted for Trump and My Daddy Burnt All the Books is the bleakest Mojo Nixon timeline
posted by ginger.beef at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
I voted last week, donated all summer, can't work at the polls... It's out of my control.
I have a pretty simple schedule for today. Dog park, food shop, home. Media blackout until midnight. I picked up the new Neal Stephenson book at the library, going to get General Tso chicken for dinner, phone off.
We started a pool with friends, "What Time Will Trump Declare Victory?" One dollar for every one minute, I put five down on between 11:01 and 11:06.
The big bottle of rum and a two liter bottle of cola is stashed in the fridge in case of emergency.
Thanks to chavenet for reminding me of "King of America," it's going on the soundtrack of tonight.
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I have a pretty simple schedule for today. Dog park, food shop, home. Media blackout until midnight. I picked up the new Neal Stephenson book at the library, going to get General Tso chicken for dinner, phone off.
We started a pool with friends, "What Time Will Trump Declare Victory?" One dollar for every one minute, I put five down on between 11:01 and 11:06.
The big bottle of rum and a two liter bottle of cola is stashed in the fridge in case of emergency.
Thanks to chavenet for reminding me of "King of America," it's going on the soundtrack of tonight.
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
That 12% of people who think Leslie Knopes is voting for Trump haven't watched the show or aren't following the campaign, just wow, easiest one of them to figure out.
Also disagree with those who thinks Ron Swanson is voting for Trump. I mean McCain, Bush or guy with the binders, it's plausible, but not Trump. Swanson is the fantasy version of a Libertarian, I don't really believe people like that exists, but the character was principled, and cherished honesty and hard work....in the end, that character isn't voting for Trump.
Also Indiana Jones punches nazis he doesn't vote for then.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Also disagree with those who thinks Ron Swanson is voting for Trump. I mean McCain, Bush or guy with the binders, it's plausible, but not Trump. Swanson is the fantasy version of a Libertarian, I don't really believe people like that exists, but the character was principled, and cherished honesty and hard work....in the end, that character isn't voting for Trump.
Also Indiana Jones punches nazis he doesn't vote for then.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:52 AM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and give him a terrible boner.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and give him a terrible boner.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:54 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I am strangely not nervous. It's a beautiful fall day, kids have the day off school, Americans are turning out in big numbers to cast their votes, and I voted last week. A million things can happen in the next few weeks, most of which are out of my hands. What if Trump wins? What if Kamala wins and Congressional shenanigans ensue? What if there's violence?
I don't know, but I don't see why I need to gird myself for any of that today, on Election Day. I refuse to let pollsters and white supremacists and the uninformed live rent-free in my head on Election Day. I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
We'll see who wins this motherfucker, and what kind of country we're going to live in, when every vote is counted. I can wait.
So today in lieu of voting I got a haircut, because I want to look good for tomorrow, whatever that looks like.
posted by swift at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I don't know, but I don't see why I need to gird myself for any of that today, on Election Day. I refuse to let pollsters and white supremacists and the uninformed live rent-free in my head on Election Day. I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
We'll see who wins this motherfucker, and what kind of country we're going to live in, when every vote is counted. I can wait.
So today in lieu of voting I got a haircut, because I want to look good for tomorrow, whatever that looks like.
posted by swift at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I was listening to some local American talk radio (out of Buffalo) yesterday and today, and the MAGA hosts seemed...subdued? Resigned? A lot of loosely-assembled blather about the value of decorum and civility - the last thing you'd expect from these types.
We might have something here, mates.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
We might have something here, mates.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:58 AM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Dick Van Dyke is still with us at 98 and posts a Youtube message for us.
posted by JHarris at 11:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [44 favorites]
posted by JHarris at 11:59 AM on November 5, 2024 [44 favorites]
Stressed Nation Asks Obama If It Can Bum 340 Million Cigarettes
posted by lock robster at 12:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 12:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:
This is at least 90% false. The graph doesn't tell us much because profits are a much smaller share of the economy than wages. There was an increase in corporate profits, but the main drivers of inflation were "sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services." In other words, during the pandemic it was hard to get stuff, so people bid up prices in response to the shortages. (There were other causes, and there is still plenty of debate over the relative contributions.)
At the same time, we are in a period of strong real wage growth - real meaning even after adjusting for inflation- and inflation is low and stable. Still, we endured a period of historically high inflation, so prices are higher than before, and people really hate high price levels.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
This is at least 90% false. The graph doesn't tell us much because profits are a much smaller share of the economy than wages. There was an increase in corporate profits, but the main drivers of inflation were "sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services." In other words, during the pandemic it was hard to get stuff, so people bid up prices in response to the shortages. (There were other causes, and there is still plenty of debate over the relative contributions.)
At the same time, we are in a period of strong real wage growth - real meaning even after adjusting for inflation- and inflation is low and stable. Still, we endured a period of historically high inflation, so prices are higher than before, and people really hate high price levels.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Wow, that Dick Van Dyke video is amazing.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
If all these businesses strangely all coordinated to jack up prices, why didn’t they do it earlier.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:07 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:07 PM on November 5, 2024
I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
He can drive me. That way my wife and I can drink instead of one of us having to be the designated driver. (I kid. I'll be doing my drinking at home where it's cheap and I don't have to be around people if the news is bad...)
posted by jzb at 12:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
He can drive me. That way my wife and I can drink instead of one of us having to be the designated driver. (I kid. I'll be doing my drinking at home where it's cheap and I don't have to be around people if the news is bad...)
posted by jzb at 12:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
martin q blank: I know: Why not both?
Porque no los dos Equis?
posted by wenestvedt at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Porque no los dos Equis?
posted by wenestvedt at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
swift
Totally the wrong link, let's try again...
Can't find the line I want from Being There, but...
"I like to watch, television..."
posted by Windopaene at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Totally the wrong link, let's try again...
Can't find the line I want from Being There, but...
"I like to watch, television..."
posted by Windopaene at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
From Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem:
There's also some technical difficulties that make them complicated:
1. Pretty much every market contract different so arbitrage is way harder. It's not like buying wheat cheap in iowa and selling it dear in hawaii. More like buying pork in illinois and
2. People often don't understand what they're predicting. IEM's market has PRES24_WTA.rep at fifteen cents to win a dollar. Despite the name, WTA is not an electoral college outcome. The prospectus plainly states the contract is tied to the popular vote winner, and there's basically no way that's Trump. They've had to put up banners in the past about this when things looked catastrophically off.
3. Many informed participants are walled off. It's an open question whether US citizens can bet on politics like they can sports now. And in places where we can, like the IEM, there's a $500 cap.
4. Prediction markets have an implicit time component. You buy contracts now for a payoff later. Beyond the whole uncertainty of when Congress certifies the outcome (ugh), the further away the payoff is the more money you need to earn to break even vs the risk free rate of return. Which is substantially higher in 2024 than 2020. If the market is only off 3 percent of "correct," nobody will bother picking up those 3 pennies. I assume this shows up in spreads.
posted by pwnguin at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
From Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem:
Money talks and bullshit walks, and prediction markets force people to put that money where their mouth is.There's basically a contingent that uses their money as "votes" rather than predictions, and unsurprisingly this crew leans conservative.
Some of the largest and most notable prediction markets to date have been around elections. The only problem? Prediction markets simply aren’t very good at political predictions.
There's also some technical difficulties that make them complicated:
1. Pretty much every market contract different so arbitrage is way harder. It's not like buying wheat cheap in iowa and selling it dear in hawaii. More like buying pork in illinois and
2. People often don't understand what they're predicting. IEM's market has PRES24_WTA.rep at fifteen cents to win a dollar. Despite the name, WTA is not an electoral college outcome. The prospectus plainly states the contract is tied to the popular vote winner, and there's basically no way that's Trump. They've had to put up banners in the past about this when things looked catastrophically off.
3. Many informed participants are walled off. It's an open question whether US citizens can bet on politics like they can sports now. And in places where we can, like the IEM, there's a $500 cap.
4. Prediction markets have an implicit time component. You buy contracts now for a payoff later. Beyond the whole uncertainty of when Congress certifies the outcome (ugh), the further away the payoff is the more money you need to earn to break even vs the risk free rate of return. Which is substantially higher in 2024 than 2020. If the market is only off 3 percent of "correct," nobody will bother picking up those 3 pennies. I assume this shows up in spreads.
posted by pwnguin at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm
Thankfully at least this election they can start when polls opened at 7am. Philadelphia will be counting 24/7. Dancing TBD
posted by sepviva at 12:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Thankfully at least this election they can start when polls opened at 7am. Philadelphia will be counting 24/7. Dancing TBD
posted by sepviva at 12:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I am pretty sure I can take Wolf Blitzer in the Raiders of the Lost Ark Himalayan drinking game.
Well, at least until the Nazi's show up.
4 more hours? Sigh
EDIT: But as someone NOT DRINKING, the rest of you, don't. Bad drug
posted by Windopaene at 12:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Well, at least until the Nazi's show up.
4 more hours? Sigh
EDIT: But as someone NOT DRINKING, the rest of you, don't. Bad drug
posted by Windopaene at 12:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
My work involves a lot of local political advocacy especially with City Hall. Yesterday I posted my personal voting priorities, including putting the sole progressive running for mayor as #1. This should surprise absolutely no one. This morning, I noticed that our current mayor had *unfriended* me on fb. Which, her deep vindictive pettiness is one of the many reasons I can't support her reelection - there have been a few news articles but it is so much worse than that - and this is just a classically petty example of it. It's her professional fb account (I can see the 90+ mutual friends on there) and it's mostly just hilarious to me.
If you live in SF and haven't yet voted, please don't vote for her (also I answer questions and explain any of the things on SF and CA ballots as needed - ask away.)
posted by gingerbeer at 12:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
If you live in SF and haven't yet voted, please don't vote for her (also I answer questions and explain any of the things on SF and CA ballots as needed - ask away.)
posted by gingerbeer at 12:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump
Not to mention that Batman isn't voting for a convicted felon over a former prosecutor, and Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad. Apparently a lot of people who think they know these characters actually don't!
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Not to mention that Batman isn't voting for a convicted felon over a former prosecutor, and Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad. Apparently a lot of people who think they know these characters actually don't!
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
TIL 91% of people don't remember Archie Bunker's Place
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
TIL 91% of people don't remember Archie Bunker's Place
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
"I just want to tell you both good luck, we're all counting on you."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Indiana Jones vote for a modern republican??? Who TF would think that?
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode
posted by BungaDunga at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
No better time to go listen to Billy Bragg and Wilco tearing it up on Woody Guthrie's All You Fascists (Bound To Lose). Good luck to us all.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 12:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
posted by Sing Or Swim at 12:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.
even funnier is that it's a tossup because more democrats think she'd vote Harris and more republicans think she'd vote Trump.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
even funnier is that it's a tossup because more democrats think she'd vote Harris and more republicans think she'd vote Trump.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I just placed a bet on Kamala Harris. I have never betted on anything in my whole life, but I can't donate to American politicians, so I'm trying to move the needle in some other way.
The thing is, if Trump wins, we can't escape. There is nowhere to go.
I have no idea how the future will be for my children and grandchildren, only that it will be wrong.
posted by mumimor at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
The thing is, if Trump wins, we can't escape. There is nowhere to go.
I have no idea how the future will be for my children and grandchildren, only that it will be wrong.
posted by mumimor at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I suppose the silver lining of my boss landing early from her flight and there being a massive cock-up with the car service which caused her to have an enormous hissy fit is that it distracts me from....this.
(At least that's what I'm telling myself.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
(At least that's what I'm telling myself.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
On the 'how fictional characters would vote' train:
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
Joker: Votes for maximum chaos, so voting for Trump. But not with much enthusiasm- the joke's played out.
Harley Quinn: surreptitiously voting for Harris and hoping her pudding doesn't find out.
The Penguin: voting for Trump, after all, he's been promised a pardon for his campaign contributions.
The Riddler: voting for Harris and insufferably smug about how she's 'the smart candidate'.
Poison Ivy: unless Jill Stein is a chemically controlled pawn of Ivy, she's voting for Harris. Probably while plotting the assasination of Jill Stein.
Mr. Freeze: worried about global warming and health care and therefore voting for Harris.
Scarecrow: voting for Trump because there will be so much anxiety as well as captive experimental subjects if Trump wins.
Bane: Technically an illegal immigrant and unlikely to vote. But if he did, he'd be the one illegal Central American (Caribbean) immigrant that all the nativists will be pointing to in their claims about illegals voting.
Ra'as al Ghul: This sinister immortal who is plotting the downfall of civilization obviously sees a vote for Trump as the accelerationist choice.
Mad Hatter: voting for Trump. Jarvis Tetch and Jeffrey Epstein and DJT have a history together....
Clayface: voting for Harris, because he knows just how much of a phony Trump is.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
Joker: Votes for maximum chaos, so voting for Trump. But not with much enthusiasm- the joke's played out.
Harley Quinn: surreptitiously voting for Harris and hoping her pudding doesn't find out.
The Penguin: voting for Trump, after all, he's been promised a pardon for his campaign contributions.
The Riddler: voting for Harris and insufferably smug about how she's 'the smart candidate'.
Poison Ivy: unless Jill Stein is a chemically controlled pawn of Ivy, she's voting for Harris. Probably while plotting the assasination of Jill Stein.
Mr. Freeze: worried about global warming and health care and therefore voting for Harris.
Scarecrow: voting for Trump because there will be so much anxiety as well as captive experimental subjects if Trump wins.
Bane: Technically an illegal immigrant and unlikely to vote. But if he did, he'd be the one illegal Central American (Caribbean) immigrant that all the nativists will be pointing to in their claims about illegals voting.
Ra'as al Ghul: This sinister immortal who is plotting the downfall of civilization obviously sees a vote for Trump as the accelerationist choice.
Mad Hatter: voting for Trump. Jarvis Tetch and Jeffrey Epstein and DJT have a history together....
Clayface: voting for Harris, because he knows just how much of a phony Trump is.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
I think Frasier'd go Obama > Trump > Biden > Harris
posted by BungaDunga at 12:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I think Frasier'd go Obama > Trump > Biden > Harris
posted by BungaDunga at 12:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Joker is 100% voting for RFK Jr
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
I voted. There was a line that stretched out around the building. A retired African-American amputee (a military veteran) came to vote in-person because it was important. The elderly Jewish monitor gave me extra "I voted" stickers for my children to encourage future voters. "If not them, then who?" He said.
I don't have the time or the energy to fight all of the clear-eyed cynics who are strutting around saying that they expect Trump to win. I prayed as hard this morning as I did four years ago, and four years before that. I grew up in Mississippi and have seen what the GOP wants the rest of the nation to become. I remember the chaos of Trump's first term. I remember the anger I felt when Bush v Gore was decided.
God bless the United States and may we as a nation make the correct choice today.
posted by gwydapllew at 12:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [46 favorites]
I don't have the time or the energy to fight all of the clear-eyed cynics who are strutting around saying that they expect Trump to win. I prayed as hard this morning as I did four years ago, and four years before that. I grew up in Mississippi and have seen what the GOP wants the rest of the nation to become. I remember the chaos of Trump's first term. I remember the anger I felt when Bush v Gore was decided.
God bless the United States and may we as a nation make the correct choice today.
posted by gwydapllew at 12:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [46 favorites]
Meme round-up, mostly from yours truly with some extra favorites from Lemmy:
Fuckin' weirdosposted by Rhaomi at 12:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Someone's ears are burning
Burning it all down
Press "F" to shove a veteran
Birtherism vs. Burgerism
They said she could be anything.
♫ I love ya, Trump's health plan, you're always two weeks away ♫
Trump-Harris debate mood board
broken record 2: electric boogaloo
The Concept of a Plan (ft. Donald Trump)
"IS SHE TALKING ABOUT ME?"
On Message
The ratio of bullshit to fact is too big
JD reaches out to America's females
"Hello, handsome."
Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally
"Deep down you long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king"
Spare me the crocodile tears
Flooding the zone? Better call Ann
the poor fools
The Needle and the damage done
It ain't over till it's over
*jingles keys*
Barney says there's a 50% chance Trump wins PepeSylvia
MAGA not beating the "weird" allegations
We can't keep getting away with this
I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."
Could be a lot. Which would be a landslide.
Just can't see how anyone but horrible shitheads would vote for TFG, over an actual human. But, here we are. Fingers crossed friends.
posted by Windopaene at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Could be a lot. Which would be a landslide.
Just can't see how anyone but horrible shitheads would vote for TFG, over an actual human. But, here we are. Fingers crossed friends.
posted by Windopaene at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup
Seems like she'd just be very confused at what "Democrat" and "Republican" now mean and stand for.
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
They wouldn't, they're all convicted felons and Ra's al Ghul is also not a citizen.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Seems like she'd just be very confused at what "Democrat" and "Republican" now mean and stand for.
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
They wouldn't, they're all convicted felons and Ra's al Ghul is also not a citizen.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
That "Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally" really is fantastic.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 12:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.
Would he have voted for Clinton? For Obama? For Harris? For Biden? I am not willing to hazard a guess. But Trump, no.
posted by Jeanne at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Would he have voted for Clinton? For Obama? For Harris? For Biden? I am not willing to hazard a guess. But Trump, no.
posted by Jeanne at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Yesterday’s XKCD perfectly expresses how I’ve been feeling about uncertainty for the past few months.
posted by mbrubeck at 12:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 12:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup
Yes. This, I concede.
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
They're not the same but today's Maher is unrecognizable from PI. Or, maybe I never really saw him. Either way, he's of a type.
And Miller's transformation was no less dramatic, it was just around 9-11.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Yes. This, I concede.
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
They're not the same but today's Maher is unrecognizable from PI. Or, maybe I never really saw him. Either way, he's of a type.
And Miller's transformation was no less dramatic, it was just around 9-11.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm sitting in the rental car taking a short nap. I've been at this Philadelphia polling place doing poll observation volunteering since 6:30 am, and I'm resting a bit before the afterwork rush. I'm not really sure how this is going to go, and I'll probably be too tired to watch whatever results tonight.
Hey friend listen, I know the world is really scary right now but...
...the future is unknowable and will be determined by how hard we fight now for a loving world.
posted by AlSweigart at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [39 favorites]
Hey friend listen, I know the world is really scary right now but...
...the future is unknowable and will be determined by how hard we fight now for a loving world.
posted by AlSweigart at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [39 favorites]
"I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."
My therapist was in a cheerful mood and said that, approximately, much more polite though. She said older ladies would definitely be out in full force and anyone whose life is as risk. She also said I was sensible for staying on BC (people have commented it's pointless for me since I'm unwanted romantically), Just In Case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
My therapist was in a cheerful mood and said that, approximately, much more polite though. She said older ladies would definitely be out in full force and anyone whose life is as risk. She also said I was sensible for staying on BC (people have commented it's pointless for me since I'm unwanted romantically), Just In Case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
posted by adept256 at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
posted by adept256 at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
At the moment I am much less stressed about this election than the previous two. No logic to it. Either emotional fatigue or straight-up dissociation.
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Canadian here, wishing all of you the best with this massive anxiety fest today.
As some of you know I have posted various iterations of Trump over the years here, and I have made a screenshot of all the portraits I've don of him, which is over 40 now.
My god, one day we will be finally free of him and that will be a glorious day indeed, hopefully it happens today, though his baleful, malignant influence is going to poison society for years to come I imagine.
We feel it here, too, in Canada, he gives the worst we have a set of permissions to be public about that. The Fuck Trudeau crowd here, as one example, is very heavily MAGA influenced, and I wish it would stop.
Anyways, my best from North of 49.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
As some of you know I have posted various iterations of Trump over the years here, and I have made a screenshot of all the portraits I've don of him, which is over 40 now.
My god, one day we will be finally free of him and that will be a glorious day indeed, hopefully it happens today, though his baleful, malignant influence is going to poison society for years to come I imagine.
We feel it here, too, in Canada, he gives the worst we have a set of permissions to be public about that. The Fuck Trudeau crowd here, as one example, is very heavily MAGA influenced, and I wish it would stop.
Anyways, my best from North of 49.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
He's got the out-of-touch rich person cluelessness of Mr. Burns and the slob factor/intellect of Homer Simpson.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
He's got the out-of-touch rich person cluelessness of Mr. Burns and the slob factor/intellect of Homer Simpson.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat.
Hahahaha no he has not. He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
posted by Gadarene at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
Hahahaha no he has not. He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
posted by Gadarene at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
One of the low-key funniest things about this election is how Donald Trump literally got shot -- with an iconic bloody photo, too -- and not only did it barely sway polls at the time, but it had the cultural staying power of the first Avatar movie. We're ten hours and 300+ comments into this thread, and I'm the first to mention it. Heck, I didn't even think to mention in the post, and I was the one who posted the news here in the first place.
America just doesn't care for this dude very much. Hopefully it will be enough, in the right places.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
America just doesn't care for this dude very much. Hopefully it will be enough, in the right places.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
I really don’t know how to feel right now. It seems weird to me that class isn’t canceled today. No one is focused and everyone is snapping at each other and fighting over weird shit. My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen. I have solemnly promised to be home before election results start coming out. The kid has asked for an emotional support friend to be over while we watch, which we have granted. Every nerve is jangling. I feel like Harris will definitely win the popular vote, but I’m just not sure about the electoral college. And it’s a weird feeling being so anxious when I don’t even like her! Yet every piece of food I eat is tasteless and I can’t wait for today to be over.
posted by corb at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by corb at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I voted when the polls opened this morning as I usually do, and it was busier than I have ever seen it. We elect some real doozies here in Alaska, but consistently have the best stickers in the nation (I love this year's formline stickers). I am hoping for at least a split legislature and for our conservative Democratic congresswoman to win re-election. Most importantly, I am hoping that we defeat the Republican-backed ballot proposition that would repeal the ranked-choice voting system that elected said conservative Democrat, and has moderated our worst instincts in the state legislature.
Our local schools are doing remote learning for the day today since so many schools are polling places, so I can work from home today. I made a routine appointment for Wednesday months ago solely so I didn't have to spend all day putting on a show for 200 middle school kids when I didn't know what emotional state I was going to be in, and am feeling very smart for doing that.
posted by charmedimsure at 1:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Our local schools are doing remote learning for the day today since so many schools are polling places, so I can work from home today. I made a routine appointment for Wednesday months ago solely so I didn't have to spend all day putting on a show for 200 middle school kids when I didn't know what emotional state I was going to be in, and am feeling very smart for doing that.
posted by charmedimsure at 1:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Here in Denmark, the tradition is to eat pork on Election Day. Normally, I'm with my family, and we make US Election Day special by making sandwiches, because we all know how the US elections are important for our European security.
But this year, because of my crushed shoulder, I'm alone, so I've had bacon butties for tea. Theoretically, I'm a jew. But practically I'm a Yorkshire lass and a bacon butty is the comfort I need.
Come on Americans, you. can do this
posted by mumimor at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
But this year, because of my crushed shoulder, I'm alone, so I've had bacon butties for tea. Theoretically, I'm a jew. But practically I'm a Yorkshire lass and a bacon butty is the comfort I need.
Come on Americans, you. can do this
posted by mumimor at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box
WHUT
You can't parody these people.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
WHUT
You can't parody these people.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I'm shocked that 21% of people think Miles Morales would vote for Trump, even if his dad is a cop.
Indiana Jones, on the other hand...while he punched a lot of Nazis, he would also have faced cancellation for pursuing an underage Marion and his inappropriate relationships with his students.
Based on what we've seen in the last few years, I could see Indy on a podcast with Jordan Peterson and Russel Brand complaining about cancel culture and supporting Trump.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Indiana Jones, on the other hand...while he punched a lot of Nazis, he would also have faced cancellation for pursuing an underage Marion and his inappropriate relationships with his students.
Based on what we've seen in the last few years, I could see Indy on a podcast with Jordan Peterson and Russel Brand complaining about cancel culture and supporting Trump.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen.
I've made my housemates promise me we can take the Harris/Walz yard signs down tonight no matter what the outcome. Magas are definitely gonna Maga, whichever way it goes, and I really don't want any part of it.
(I live with a friend who is the Democrat equivalent of a full-blown Q-anon Trumpetarian. We have Harris signs blocking the view of other Harris signs out there. I mean there are worse problems to have, obviously! But I'd really rather not have my house "accidentally" catch fire here in our 50/50 town in our deep blue state.)
posted by invincible summer at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I've made my housemates promise me we can take the Harris/Walz yard signs down tonight no matter what the outcome. Magas are definitely gonna Maga, whichever way it goes, and I really don't want any part of it.
(I live with a friend who is the Democrat equivalent of a full-blown Q-anon Trumpetarian. We have Harris signs blocking the view of other Harris signs out there. I mean there are worse problems to have, obviously! But I'd really rather not have my house "accidentally" catch fire here in our 50/50 town in our deep blue state.)
posted by invincible summer at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
jenfullmoon: "WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box
WHUT
You can't parody these people."
"I can excuse racism, but I draw the line at animal cruelty."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
WHUT
You can't parody these people."
"I can excuse racism, but I draw the line at animal cruelty."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
The squirrel story does not surprise me since Trump supporters seem to have a preturnatural inability to understand how viral diseases work.
posted by East14thTaco at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by East14thTaco at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
This just in, Trump will shut down X if Harris wins!
Talk about threatening us with a good time....
posted by invincible summer at 1:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Talk about threatening us with a good time....
posted by invincible summer at 1:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
All of a sudden, Montana — and Senate control — is slipping away from Republicans
Stephen Leuchtman, polling director for Pharos Research Group, tweeted Monday that his firm had conducted one last poll of the Montana race, concluding on Sunday. It found Tester four percentage points ahead of Sheehy, according to Leuchtman, who did not release the full poll results (his firm does privately commissioned polling), just within the survey’s 4.97 percent margin of error.posted by Rhaomi at 1:33 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
It’s far from a certain thing, but the poll does fall roughly in line with two other surveys taken in mid-to-late October which found the gap between the two candidates shrinking rapidly from earlier in the year. One, from The Hill/Emerson College, found the Republican leading by three percentage points — within the margin of error — while a second from the University of Montana - Billings survey found the race tied.
Sheehy’s polling collapse and potential defeat on Tuesday could very well end up being a casualty of his failure to provide a clear explanation and proof for a scandal that has followed him for months: the case of the bullet wound in his right arm, which Sheehy maintains was suffered during a deployment to Afghanistan.
Well, Elon is apparently spending Election Night with Trump so that would be a possibility but Elon is so addicted to posting I can't see it happening.
Also, apparently all the political ads on twitter are all Republican ads. I'm not in the US so I wouldn't know.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2024
Also, apparently all the political ads on twitter are all Republican ads. I'm not in the US so I wouldn't know.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2024
On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!
And a little heartbreaking hanging out in /r/Voting where as of last night every third post was "first time voter... how can I prevent my abuser parents from knowing how I'm voting?"
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
And a little heartbreaking hanging out in /r/Voting where as of last night every third post was "first time voter... how can I prevent my abuser parents from knowing how I'm voting?"
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
A little l libertarian who recognizes what a complete trash fire Trump is and keeps giving more money than I make in an entire election cycle to Dems because he doesn't actually want to see the world burn.
What makes him most difficult is that he refuses to stop bringing even the nutters on his show, so he ends up platforming fascists out of a conception of the First Amendment only slightly more sane and slightly less self serving than that held by Elon Musk.
I'd actually agree with his position on that in normal times, but bringing people on who supported the insurrection and attempted coup is a bridge too far.
posted by wierdo at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
A little l libertarian who recognizes what a complete trash fire Trump is and keeps giving more money than I make in an entire election cycle to Dems because he doesn't actually want to see the world burn.
What makes him most difficult is that he refuses to stop bringing even the nutters on his show, so he ends up platforming fascists out of a conception of the First Amendment only slightly more sane and slightly less self serving than that held by Elon Musk.
I'd actually agree with his position on that in normal times, but bringing people on who supported the insurrection and attempted coup is a bridge too far.
posted by wierdo at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?
posted by corb at 1:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by corb at 1:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I wouldn't put much stock in the Montana poll: "FWIW the firm that conducted this (Pharos Research Group) has some major red flags"
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:40 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:40 PM on November 5, 2024
corb: "Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?"
Come for the unlicensed wildlife pet, stay for the surprise OnlyFans account.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Come for the unlicensed wildlife pet, stay for the surprise OnlyFans account.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
The Harris campaign sounds a lot like the Obama campaign did around this time on Election Day in 2012. 💙🌊💙🗳
Let’s GO!!
posted by edithkeeler at 1:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Let’s GO!!
posted by edithkeeler at 1:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Lots of stories of high turnout. That's good to hear.
posted by ryanrs at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm just home from sitting outside the polls a Democratic table with info. Harris voters are totally pumped up and I had the most Democrats stop by our table than the other three elections I've been at (I've been doing this since 2019, Virginia has elections every year). Virginia allows same day registration with a provisional ballot and in our teeny tiny precinct, there were over 20 same day registrations.
I am nauseously optimistic.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
I am nauseously optimistic.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?
Wait, wait, if we add miniature American flags to the bill and name it for the squirrel maybe we can get them to end qualified immunity for any raid on which an animal is killed!
posted by corb at 1:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Wait, wait, if we add miniature American flags to the bill and name it for the squirrel maybe we can get them to end qualified immunity for any raid on which an animal is killed!
posted by corb at 1:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The Peanut thing is so so so stupid. The only reason MAGA latched onto it was because it happened in the evil state of New York (AKA: a state Trump will never win).
Luckily for them, there isn't enough time for stupid pet tricks or else we'd be seeing the headline "Wild squirrel brought in by supporter bites several people at Trump rally. Official urge people to get tested for rabies."
posted by LostInUbe at 1:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Luckily for them, there isn't enough time for stupid pet tricks or else we'd be seeing the headline "Wild squirrel brought in by supporter bites several people at Trump rally. Official urge people to get tested for rabies."
posted by LostInUbe at 1:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
To counter the Peanut stuff, there's Nibi the beaver, saved from certain death, but, oh, Nibi was pardoned by the Democratic governor of a deep-blue state, so obviously doesn't count.
posted by adamg at 1:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by adamg at 1:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
We're not in the States, and so won't be voting.
Instead, we'll be preparing a batch of Tim Walz' hot dish before we sit down to watch the chaos sorry election footage unfold.
posted by The Outsider at 1:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Instead, we'll be preparing a batch of Tim Walz' hot dish before we sit down to watch the chaos sorry election footage unfold.
posted by The Outsider at 1:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
There is no human test for rabies, if potentially exposed I think you just have to get the (expensive) shots. I hope Trump doesn't catch wind of that story or in this timeline he will say some garbage at his rallies that will lead to many exposures followed by a shortage of immunoglobulin.
posted by being_quiet at 2:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by being_quiet at 2:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I will sometimes feed the squirrels on my deck some peanuts. I quickly realized they can’t really tell the difference between a finger and a peanut without giving it a taste.
Not dead yet.
posted by funkaspuck at 2:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Not dead yet.
posted by funkaspuck at 2:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky
I was previously unaware of these films. DirtyOldTown, you may have saved my family's evening.
posted by nickmark at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I was previously unaware of these films. DirtyOldTown, you may have saved my family's evening.
posted by nickmark at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
As someone who took the old school rabies vaccine in the 80s, lmao that the wildlife tech was afraid of the modern shot. You could have had rabies immunity superpowers, you squeamish prick.
posted by ryanrs at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by ryanrs at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2024
A short musical interlude. Lady Gaga bring down the house Edge of Glory at last night's rally in Philly.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Trump Media stock was halted three times on Election Day after its price dropped 15% in just 15 minutes. (archive.is link)
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
5:25 in NYC. Stress-eating has commenced.
posted by fingers_of_fire at 2:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by fingers_of_fire at 2:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I've been away from Ye Olde Metafiltere for a few years...I come back for two reasons -- the identification of The Most Mysterious Song, AND Election Night 2024, which coincide very neatly with one another.
I was overconfident in 16, doom-n-gloomed in 20 and just sitting back for the ride here in 24. Bless you all.
posted by splen at 2:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
I was overconfident in 16, doom-n-gloomed in 20 and just sitting back for the ride here in 24. Bless you all.
posted by splen at 2:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Back again also.
2020 election thread was a great real time tracker, with a banging soundtrack.
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
2020 election thread was a great real time tracker, with a banging soundtrack.
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Weird. 2SER radio in Sydney is reporting exactly now about the most mysterious song.
I hadn’t even heard about this thing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 5, 2024
I hadn’t even heard about this thing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 5, 2024
Stress cooking commencing. I got some chicken, about six pounds of veggies and a giant box of S&B Golden Curry. Good luck, everyone.
posted by phooky at 2:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by phooky at 2:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
I just have a CD of Napalm Death's 'From Enslavement to Obliteration' on repeat at the moment.
I'm trying not to drink accordingly.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I just have a CD of Napalm Death's 'From Enslavement to Obliteration' on repeat at the moment.
I'm trying not to drink accordingly.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I was buying Christmas tree ornaments when they broke the news of Biden winning in 2020… got me so happy it instantly turned me from being the Grinch grudgingly buying stuff to being a FULL ON Christmas ornamenter (it runs in the family), my GF still talks about it.
Not sure what I’m doing tonight… what should I go overboard on?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Not sure what I’m doing tonight… what should I go overboard on?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
Election Therapy playlist
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Election Therapy playlist
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
My husband and I walked approximately 200 yards from our new house to vote at our new polling place, a elementary school gym. Made delightful small talk with one awkward high school election worker and complimented another on the knitting project she was working on, in between feeding ballots into the scanner.
Wept a little bit in the voting booth, as is my custom, but I'm feeling pretty OK as we head into the evening. Here in Chicago, we're electing a school board for the first time and there are always bad judges to try to boot out, so here's hoping that increased engagement and turn-out will have good knock-on effects, locally.
posted by merriment at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Wept a little bit in the voting booth, as is my custom, but I'm feeling pretty OK as we head into the evening. Here in Chicago, we're electing a school board for the first time and there are always bad judges to try to boot out, so here's hoping that increased engagement and turn-out will have good knock-on effects, locally.
posted by merriment at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 2:45 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 2:45 PM on November 5, 2024
Is it worth following the election returns tonight? As much as I want a blue wave, I can't let myself believe it will happen. I had been assuming we'd have to wait for days again. I was going to take two Benedryl and try to just sleep. But I am bad at not knowing.
posted by rikschell at 2:47 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by rikschell at 2:47 PM on November 5, 2024
We’re trying to distract ourselves at a coffee shop with sugary lattes and art supplies. But um, here I am on the internet…
posted by UltraMorgnus at 2:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by UltraMorgnus at 2:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Common Sense Says She Wins, Jay Kuo (sorry, Substack):
posted by kristi at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
ten reasons why I remain cautiously optimistic:It's worth a read.
1. The Gender Gap
2. Older women voters
3. Enthusiasm favors Democrats
4. The favorability factor
5. The Latino vote
6. The youth vote
7. Closing weak v. closing strong
8. The Ground Game
9. Trump has bet on young male voters
10. About those polls
posted by kristi at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
My spouse had off yesterday and today, so we went to Cape May, NJ for the night for a distraction. I was a ball of anxiety on the way down, but loosened up considerably and, perhaps not coincidentally, avoided most of the internet until we got back home today. Tonight, like 2020 and 2016 before it, probably involves some(lots of) bourbon or gin once I get caught up on work.
posted by mollweide at 2:53 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by mollweide at 2:53 PM on November 5, 2024
You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
My today playlist is all psychedelic rock, funk and soul because how else to get through weird times?
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
The Guardian is reporting that exit polls show a third of voters said concerns about democracy were foremost on their minds. I see that as a good sign.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by Mr. Yuck at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.
That sounds tasty, but could be bad karma. Might have to rename it.
posted by mollweide at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024
That sounds tasty, but could be bad karma. Might have to rename it.
posted by mollweide at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024
Well I would like to report that I have increased North Carolina’s numbers by 2, as one of my kids texted me with “my friend and his mom are in NC and trying to vote and being turned away by Trump electioneers” and I was able to sort it out with the very lovely folks at the election protection line for North Carolina and get them to another polling place that let them vote. But also, horrifying and unsurprising that it is happening.
posted by corb at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [49 favorites]
posted by corb at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [49 favorites]
Wow, the WaPo app just took over my iPhone’s dynamic Island with an EV counter after I tapped on some cryptic prompt? Props to them for finding an uncanny mix of what is somehow one of the better uses of that space I’ve seen at a technical level combined with an omnipresent anxiety horror show I seriously do not want. Luckily figured out how to disable…
posted by advil at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by advil at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
What's up with The Hill's Decision Desk HQ predictions right now? 😬😬😬😬
posted by mxjudyliza at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by mxjudyliza at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.
I just played/listened to that same track the other day ..which is rare.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I just played/listened to that same track the other day ..which is rare.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together. Well when I looked up nearby ballot drop box locations, it turns out there's one in that park!
Bonus 1: I got to vote without having to bike anywhere else.
Bonus 2: Someone else was biking their vote in, and we had a "heck yeah!" moment.
Filling out my ballot from home is so much better an experience than trying to do it at a polling site. I really like being able to sit at my computer and look up who all these people are and what these referenda actually mean. Still couldn't come to an opinion on who would be a good regional park district director, though. From a one paragraph blurb all three candidates seemed pretty okay. I kind of wonder if that should just be an appointed position.
posted by aubilenon at 3:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Bonus 1: I got to vote without having to bike anywhere else.
Bonus 2: Someone else was biking their vote in, and we had a "heck yeah!" moment.
Filling out my ballot from home is so much better an experience than trying to do it at a polling site. I really like being able to sit at my computer and look up who all these people are and what these referenda actually mean. Still couldn't come to an opinion on who would be a good regional park district director, though. From a one paragraph blurb all three candidates seemed pretty okay. I kind of wonder if that should just be an appointed position.
posted by aubilenon at 3:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Reuters Washington reporter says Philly is at 150% of 2020 vote in some precincts. Probably not much Trump in there unless it's a lot of squirrel people in those neighborhoods.
posted by kensington314 at 3:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 3:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
oh there's squirrel people, they just aren't trump people
posted by zenon at 3:05 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by zenon at 3:05 PM on November 5, 2024
Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad.
Probably conflating the character and the actor and I don't think there is as much certiany who the rich rapist would vote for.
posted by Mitheral at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Probably conflating the character and the actor and I don't think there is as much certiany who the rich rapist would vote for.
posted by Mitheral at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The Hill is an even shittier version of Politico. Ignore them.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
19. Be a patriot.
Some of Timothy Snyder's writing in this book is very good, but i always get irritated at this one, because there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Some of Timothy Snyder's writing in this book is very good, but i always get irritated at this one, because there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
> Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together.
Oh my.
posted by lucidium at 3:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Oh my.
posted by lucidium at 3:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
538s final(?) simulation seems to have reverted to exactly 50/50 (well 50/49 in favor of Harris). I am also nauseously optimistic and allowing myself to be buoyed by the slight increase in Harris' odds in these simulations.
posted by TwoWordReview at 3:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by TwoWordReview at 3:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around, just now:
"The only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation. We have invited complaints and allegations of improprieties all day. If Donald J. Trump has any facts to support his wild allegations, we want them now. Right now. We are not holding our breath"posted by JoeZydeco at 3:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [47 favorites]
I'll be damned if I can get metachat to work.
Must be the apostrophe.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2024
Must be the apostrophe.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2024
Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanshepard at 3:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
(Red Mirage!)
posted by mochapickle at 3:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 3:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Love the work that Election Protection does. 866-OUR-VOTE for those that have t heard about it yet. Call and encourage friends to call if the encounter any issues, up to and including intimidation, long lines, etc.
Three general rules that apply (still call, but do this while you call):
1. Check your registration before you go. Most states or counties have an online checking system. If you need help- call the hotline and they can do it for you.
2. STAY IN LINE! If you are in line when the polls close, or if the lines are long, stay and call!
3. In many situations, if an election worker tries to say a registered voter can’t vote, a provisional ballot can be used and cured later. Call the hotline while staying at or near the polling place, because while a provisional ballot is a last resort, it is better than nothing!! (And the hotline will be open for most of November for curing questions/issues.)
Oh and bonus- most states permit accessibility and other ease of access (skipping the line, interpreters). Call the hotline- they can help!
And please be patient with the hotline workers- these rules are complicated.(Sometimes intentionally so!) we really just want to help!! (I just finished my Texas shift.)
posted by susiswimmer at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
Three general rules that apply (still call, but do this while you call):
1. Check your registration before you go. Most states or counties have an online checking system. If you need help- call the hotline and they can do it for you.
2. STAY IN LINE! If you are in line when the polls close, or if the lines are long, stay and call!
3. In many situations, if an election worker tries to say a registered voter can’t vote, a provisional ballot can be used and cured later. Call the hotline while staying at or near the polling place, because while a provisional ballot is a last resort, it is better than nothing!! (And the hotline will be open for most of November for curing questions/issues.)
Oh and bonus- most states permit accessibility and other ease of access (skipping the line, interpreters). Call the hotline- they can help!
And please be patient with the hotline workers- these rules are complicated.(Sometimes intentionally so!) we really just want to help!! (I just finished my Texas shift.)
posted by susiswimmer at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
Arendt called nationalism 'pride without achievement'. I like this formulation, since it allows immigrants more pride in achieving citizenship than those granted it by birth.
And if being born is the achievement you're most proud of, what the fuck have you done with your life? That's it? All you've got is that flag? What a loser.
posted by adept256 at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Arendt called nationalism 'pride without achievement'. I like this formulation, since it allows immigrants more pride in achieving citizenship than those granted it by birth.
And if being born is the achievement you're most proud of, what the fuck have you done with your life? That's it? All you've got is that flag? What a loser.
posted by adept256 at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Nauseous optimism is nothing without nausea.
posted by mazola at 3:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by mazola at 3:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I can tell it’s an emotional day because Lady Gaga made me cry.
Also! I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
Ilana: “I mean, I feel like we’re finally moving forward”
Abbi: “And it’s just the beginning. I mean, never backwards, only forwards”
Ilana: “Next is a woman!”
Both: “Whoo!”
posted by sucre at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Also! I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
Ilana: “I mean, I feel like we’re finally moving forward”
Abbi: “And it’s just the beginning. I mean, never backwards, only forwards”
Ilana: “Next is a woman!”
Both: “Whoo!”
posted by sucre at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around,
This would be the same guy who held a press conference on election security Monday morning and said, "Anyone who thinks it's time to play militia . . . F around and find out." (And proceded to use the phrase 2 more times. lmfao.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
This would be the same guy who held a press conference on election security Monday morning and said, "Anyone who thinks it's time to play militia . . . F around and find out." (And proceded to use the phrase 2 more times. lmfao.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Hugs from Australia to anyone who needs them - just wish I could do more than that for you guys.
posted by ninazer0 at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by ninazer0 at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
THANK YOU for doing Election Protection work, susiswimmer. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 3:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by kristi at 3:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke that show. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke that show. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
“Women are not without electoral or political power.”
— Samuel Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization
posted by kirkaracha at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
— Samuel Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization
posted by kirkaracha at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
“Women are not without electoral or political power.”
That is literally just inviting: "Tell Alito, I want him to know it was me."
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
That is literally just inviting: "Tell Alito, I want him to know it was me."
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
I’m avoiding the news and spinning some vinyl on a 1960’s Garrard Type A turntable I inherited from my father-in-law. And by classic vinyl I mean 1980’s era Swans and Wire. You know, the uplifting classics.
posted by misterpatrick at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by misterpatrick at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Alright, my final prediction before I head to an outdoor taproom with pizza (as other people have mentioned, North Carolina is having really nice weather right now): the results will be closer than 2020, but Kamala will pull it off. I hope I'm not too wrong.
posted by coffeecat at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.
I'm all for pessimism of the intellect (and optimism of the will!), but please note that the earliest poll closing times in any state are not for another 10 minutes. There's no data yet, there won't be for hours.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I'm all for pessimism of the intellect (and optimism of the will!), but please note that the earliest poll closing times in any state are not for another 10 minutes. There's no data yet, there won't be for hours.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
There are numbers coming in from Kentucky and Indiana. Those are expected to go strongly to TFG and so far they are.
posted by mazola at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by mazola at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
And the piecemeal nature of how the data comes in means that hanging on every result as it comes in will probably be the worst way to handle it.
posted by rikschell at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
I logged in at 5:30 this morning to the DNC Voter Protection hotline to take calls as the polls opened. (Not the same as susiswimmer, Election Protection is an independent nonpartisan org, DNC VoPro is both voter assistance and frontline reporting intake from field teams on polling locations that need to be sued into doing their jobs.)
Things started quiet but picked up in earnest at 7am. TTalked to a young person in Texas who was voting for the first time but didn't know if they're registered because they didn't get confirmation from the state. I got their permission to look up their info on the Secretary of State site and sure enough, there they were.
"You're good to go. Get at it!"
"Damn straight. I'm gonna vote!"
"You gonna do that right now? You gonna bring friends?"
"Yeah! can I give you their names so you can look them up?"
"Hell no! I need their consent! I can't have us looking people up like stalkers for democracy. But tell them to call us and we can totally confirm their registration and set up your little voting party."
"I'm gonna go do that right now."
I hope they did call and my other shift workers got a little wave of excited Texan kids ready to go do a democracy.
Anyway, it's been calls like that. I logged off shift at 10am, went to my day job, and now I'm back on the hotline but just doing techsupport on the calling software rather than taking calls.
I'm exhausted because I woke up at 4am and am too tired to stay up late and be worried; so I'm going to bed after my tech support shift ends at 9:30. Meanwhile the hotline Slack is a running series of anecdotes about voters happy to connect w/ us. 10/10 way to spend election day.
posted by bl1nk at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [64 favorites]
Things started quiet but picked up in earnest at 7am. TTalked to a young person in Texas who was voting for the first time but didn't know if they're registered because they didn't get confirmation from the state. I got their permission to look up their info on the Secretary of State site and sure enough, there they were.
"You're good to go. Get at it!"
"Damn straight. I'm gonna vote!"
"You gonna do that right now? You gonna bring friends?"
"Yeah! can I give you their names so you can look them up?"
"Hell no! I need their consent! I can't have us looking people up like stalkers for democracy. But tell them to call us and we can totally confirm their registration and set up your little voting party."
"I'm gonna go do that right now."
I hope they did call and my other shift workers got a little wave of excited Texan kids ready to go do a democracy.
Anyway, it's been calls like that. I logged off shift at 10am, went to my day job, and now I'm back on the hotline but just doing techsupport on the calling software rather than taking calls.
I'm exhausted because I woke up at 4am and am too tired to stay up late and be worried; so I'm going to bed after my tech support shift ends at 9:30. Meanwhile the hotline Slack is a running series of anecdotes about voters happy to connect w/ us. 10/10 way to spend election day.
posted by bl1nk at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [64 favorites]
> Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.(previously)
posted by bl1nk at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Never been so happy to attend the zoom meeting for my antipodean co-workers.
posted by ocschwar at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
posted by iamck at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by iamck at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
It’s really hitting me that trump might win this and damn it feels bad
posted by dis_integration at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I don't mean to monopolize the thread, but - bl1nk, THANK YOU for doing DNC Vote Protection work. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by kristi at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
What it all looks like to me at this point
posted by chavenet at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Some reporting from deep red Indiana by John Green:
Today I will be reporting on Indiana's election results and what if anything we can learn from them. In 2020, Trump beat Biden 75/22 in rural Pike County, Indiana. This year, with most of the vote in, it's 74/25. Kamala running (very) slightly ahead in this rural county. MEANWHILE in Vermillion County, where I once vomited on the side of the road on a road trip...In Vermillion County, Trump is beating Kamala 66/33, slightly behind his 69/29 margin. So far, and obviously it's (very, ridiculously, absurdly) early, slightly more Hoosiers from small towns are voting for Kamala than voted for Biden in 2020.posted by gwint at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.
(Am Team Kamala all the way, btw! Waiting with bated breath here. Hopinggggg for the best!)
posted by dubious_dude at 4:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
(Am Team Kamala all the way, btw! Waiting with bated breath here. Hopinggggg for the best!)
posted by dubious_dude at 4:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
AP makes the call based on polling
posted by dis_integration at 4:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.
I was wondering the same thing looking at DecisionDesk. Maybe really really lopsided exit polls?
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I was wondering the same thing looking at DecisionDesk. Maybe really really lopsided exit polls?
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
Man, i really wish the AP & other mainstream media would quit doing this "calling the state before any votes are counted" thing. It's part of how Republicans have been able to manipulate people to have so much mistrust of election results.
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
Me either. Whoever wins it's going to be genocide and billionaires hollowing out society. One candidate is obviously worse, but "vote to fight fascism" doesn't really work when both candidates are totally fine with some fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
Man, i really wish the AP & other mainstream media would quit doing this "calling the state before any votes are counted" thing. It's part of how Republicans have been able to manipulate people to have so much mistrust of election results.
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
Me either. Whoever wins it's going to be genocide and billionaires hollowing out society. One candidate is obviously worse, but "vote to fight fascism" doesn't really work when both candidates are totally fine with some fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Like 2020 I imagine there will be a period of time where states that close polls early will report in for Trump.
The turnout from Philly is getting reported as high. That's great news.
The bomb threat news in Georgia however is terrible news.
This will be a long night.
Thank you to all poll workers and people protecting the vote!
This was my daughter's first election she could voted and for so many reasons, Kamala Harris is the right choice.
Here is to hoping America does the right thing.
posted by kmartino at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
The turnout from Philly is getting reported as high. That's great news.
The bomb threat news in Georgia however is terrible news.
This will be a long night.
Thank you to all poll workers and people protecting the vote!
This was my daughter's first election she could voted and for so many reasons, Kamala Harris is the right choice.
Here is to hoping America does the right thing.
posted by kmartino at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.
Congratulations, Vermont!
posted by nickmark at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Congratulations, Vermont!
posted by nickmark at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Home from work and on station.
posted by vrakatar at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by vrakatar at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
If you have an election lasting more than 48 hours, you may need emergency care.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke [Broad City]. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
Remember Ilana doing commercials for Amazon Ads a couple years back? Good times, good times.
posted by non canadian guy at 4:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Remember Ilana doing commercials for Amazon Ads a couple years back? Good times, good times.
posted by non canadian guy at 4:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I have been in bed all day with stomach flu and while I don't recommend the flu part, sleeping most of the day was a good thing. Still pretty groggy but also realizing that I am literally standing at a forking path between two wildly different futures with the rest of the country and so it's ok to not be able to focus on anything. I haven't turned on the TV and probably won't. But I'm glad to see you all here.
posted by emjaybee at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
^^ I phrased it as I'm in the Quantum Lobby, where someone has already pulled the lever, and over the next couple of hours, I'm gradually going to be shunted into two separate universes, but for now I just feel anxious.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Legit. Waiting to see which hellverse we end up in.
Meanwhile, a semi overturned on my way home, so it's gonna be an hour of slogging home with my thoughts, rerouting traffic. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on November 5, 2024
Meanwhile, a semi overturned on my way home, so it's gonna be an hour of slogging home with my thoughts, rerouting traffic. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on November 5, 2024
If you want to know how important exit polling is, just ask President Kerry.
posted by gimonca at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by gimonca at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I'm drinking. Would love to not, but what can you do?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm hearing that news services will call Florida for Trump, Scott etc. by 8:00 PM.
Disappointing but not surprising. Sorry, friends.
posted by martin q blank at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Disappointing but not surprising. Sorry, friends.
posted by martin q blank at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Took a nap, took a bath, playing Elvis as surely only the King can heal a broken America, and am about to turn on PBS for an evening of results, doomscrolling, and yelling at David Brooks. Good luck, everyone. Stay safe. TCB.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on November 5, 2024
I'm catastrophising so you don't have to!
Slightly more seriously, throw on your local news instead of whatever French Mistake you default to. I'm watching a really interesting 9News story that puts a lot of that Venezualan Gang in Aurora nonense into context.
posted by East14thTaco at 4:38 PM on November 5, 2024
Slightly more seriously, throw on your local news instead of whatever French Mistake you default to. I'm watching a really interesting 9News story that puts a lot of that Venezualan Gang in Aurora nonense into context.
posted by East14thTaco at 4:38 PM on November 5, 2024
Voted for Harris. Voted to retain all the judges because Stitt’s replacements would not be in line with my values. Voted against the state questions. Voted for Monroe for mayor.
Worried and I wish I was with friends having a drink rather than at home by myself. But my cat is here.
posted by bunderful at 4:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Worried and I wish I was with friends having a drink rather than at home by myself. But my cat is here.
posted by bunderful at 4:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?
2000 Florida, though it was really a group called Voter News Service organized by the AP. They got really burned having to un-call it.
posted by netowl at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
2000 Florida, though it was really a group called Voter News Service organized by the AP. They got really burned having to un-call it.
posted by netowl at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
emjaybee i hope you recover quickly.
for my fellow mefites, whichever way this goes, i will be a staunch supporter to any person in need. i'm most worried for womens rights (taking away a womans right to her own body" is one step away from taking away our voting rights) one step away from dissolving gay marriage and one step away from total hand maids tale.
i believe in us, america! don't let us down!
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
for my fellow mefites, whichever way this goes, i will be a staunch supporter to any person in need. i'm most worried for womens rights (taking away a womans right to her own body" is one step away from taking away our voting rights) one step away from dissolving gay marriage and one step away from total hand maids tale.
i believe in us, america! don't let us down!
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Lots of bomb threats at polling places in metro-Atlanta today:
Polls have now closed in most Georgia precincts, and election workers have begun counting Election Day votes. A few precincts will remain open, including five in DeKalb County, five in Fulton County and one in Gwinnett County due to threat evacuations.posted by hydropsyche at 4:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Decision Desk is reporting Laurens County, SC, as 68.9% for Jill Stein, with an estimated 48% of the votes counted so far. Which...well, we can think on that a bit.
posted by mittens at 4:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by mittens at 4:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
But my cat is here.
How cats see election maps.
posted by valkane at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
How cats see election maps.
posted by valkane at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I think that might just be a glitch, mittens - NBC news has Laurens County as 68.9% for Trump.
posted by Jeanne at 4:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Jeanne at 4:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Huh. Well, I think Harris should have reached left.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Does anyone know of a site that shows actual vote counts side-by-side with the last polls for that state? I am curious whether there is any sort of systematic error in the polls.
posted by Westringia F. at 4:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Westringia F. at 4:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I knew in 2016. I knew in 2020. I just don't know now. It feels weird. And fucking bad. I do have a sense we'll know tonight, I don't know why.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Westringia F: not sure if this is quite what you're asking for, but ABC Australia's live blog has live counts.
West Virginia seems really close
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
West Virginia seems really close
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Oh nvm WV was 50/50 when I last checked but it's swung back to Trump
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2024
AP called West Virginia for Trump a while ago.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 5, 2024
It's nearing 8 pm on the east coast:
To every thing (turn turn turn)
There is a season (turn turn turn)
And a time to curse and spit
Appeasing heaven
posted by Wilbefort at 4:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
To every thing (turn turn turn)
There is a season (turn turn turn)
And a time to curse and spit
Appeasing heaven
posted by Wilbefort at 4:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Georgia independent voters prefer Trump over Harris in exit polling
In a potentially worrying sign for Kamala Harris, CNN is reporting Donald Trump is doing very well with independent voters in the key battleground state of Georgia.
A CNN exit poll shows Trump leading Harris among independents in that state by 54% to 43%.
Four years ago, Georgia independents swung behind Joe Biden.
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
In a potentially worrying sign for Kamala Harris, CNN is reporting Donald Trump is doing very well with independent voters in the key battleground state of Georgia.
A CNN exit poll shows Trump leading Harris among independents in that state by 54% to 43%.
Four years ago, Georgia independents swung behind Joe Biden.
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
We don't have registered party affiliations in Georgia. So there's no way to confirm someone is an "independent" and not just a person who always votes Republican but won't tell you that.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Thanks creatrixtiara, but it's not just the live counts that I want; I want them side-by-side with the last NYT/CNN/ipsos/AP/whomever polls for the same state. Specifically, I want to know if the red states are as red as they were predicted to be (likewise the blue states).
posted by Westringia F. at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Westringia F. at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Georgia independent voters prefer Trump over Harris in exit polling
You say potato I say Georgia independent voters are sexist and racist 💁
posted by phunniemee at 5:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
You say potato I say Georgia independent voters are sexist and racist 💁
posted by phunniemee at 5:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
It wouldn’t be a meaningful comparison until the votes are all or almost all counted or if you had access to precinct or maybe county level polling and voting to compare earlier.
posted by Rumple at 5:04 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Rumple at 5:04 PM on November 5, 2024
I agree! But do you know of anyone who actually publishes the comparison?
posted by Westringia F. at 5:06 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Westringia F. at 5:06 PM on November 5, 2024
I went to my neighborhood liquor store about 5:30. It was fairly busy for a weekday.
posted by NotLost at 5:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 5:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
My pizza showed up in eleven pieces. One of them was roughly a third of the whole pie. It took an hour to get here, but I'm not even mad. I feel bad. It must be hell working there tonight.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
No but the CNN map dude is comparing county level returns from 2024 to Biden’s 2020 results which, while the county may not be counted fully yet, allows a relevant metric which is at least more granular than state level at this time.
posted by Rumple at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Rumple at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
It’s also worth noting that there are bomb threats at Georgia voting precincts like DeKalb and Fulton. And like - that’s uncorrectable. If this was an NLRB election, it’d be grounds for a bargaining order. Here, there’s not much that can be done about people who *don’t* vote.
posted by corb at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by corb at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
God. I can't stand this. The tension is literally killing me. Or would, anyway, if I weren't in decent cardiac health.
Imma go drink (yay, not hard drugs even though they'd be waaaayyy better for this) and watch Russian mobiks getting blown up by Ukrainian FPVs and try to pretend that isn't in everyone's future.
Cue Charlton Heston on a beach.
posted by aramaic at 5:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Imma go drink (yay, not hard drugs even though they'd be waaaayyy better for this) and watch Russian mobiks getting blown up by Ukrainian FPVs and try to pretend that isn't in everyone's future.
Cue Charlton Heston on a beach.
posted by aramaic at 5:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
(how do you even cut a pizza into an odd number of slices?)
posted by mittens at 5:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
(Cut a pizza in half. Cut one of the halves in half. How many pieces do you have?)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
(Cut into thirds then subdivide. Which will lead to a just intonated pizza and youtube videos).
posted by stet at 5:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by stet at 5:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
kittens for breakfast, electorally speaking, each of those pieces of your pie are weighted the same
posted by joeyh at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by joeyh at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
(Alternately, hit the klein bottle a little too hard beforehand.)
posted by stet at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by stet at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
*peeks between fingers* Is there any good news at all so far?
posted by HotToddy at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by HotToddy at 5:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Advances in pizza theory. We'll get back to you on the election.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
North Carolina Governor just called: Stein (Normal) wins easily over Robinson (Dumpster Fire).
posted by gimonca at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
TikTok video of the good day I had being a poll worker in Savannah, Georgia!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
I went to Pizza Hut today and they told me they had only Pepperoni pizzas. I don't know why it would be so difficult to leave off the pepperonis and have cheese.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 5, 2024
For a lot of reasons, this election barely registered for me. Like, I was somehow made aware of Biden withdrawing and Trump's brush with death, but my brain tune out EVERYTHING. There was no real reason to care. Also 2016 broke me.
I did vote today though, not that there was a chance I wasn't going to. I only just peaked at election results/predictions now.
If Kamala doesn't win, I just can't again. And I'm worried she won't, there have been enough people (men) around me that can't articulate why they don't like her that it feels too much like Clinton again.
I don't have my passport, which is probably good because honestly if Trump wins tonight, it would be all I could do to not head to the Canadian border.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 5:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I did vote today though, not that there was a chance I wasn't going to. I only just peaked at election results/predictions now.
If Kamala doesn't win, I just can't again. And I'm worried she won't, there have been enough people (men) around me that can't articulate why they don't like her that it feels too much like Clinton again.
I don't have my passport, which is probably good because honestly if Trump wins tonight, it would be all I could do to not head to the Canadian border.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 5:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Trump finished ahead of his 538-average polling by 6 points in Florida...
posted by dirigibleman at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by dirigibleman at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2024
Chiming in from Canada. Hugs to you all. It’s been a hell of a summer and I just hope beyond hope that the nazis don’t win. My great uncle was a Dambuster in WW2. I cannot support what Trump supports.
posted by omegajuice at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by omegajuice at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Friends and family from around the world have checked in with us, and asked us to make sure thay can sleep soundly tonight.
posted by Rabarberofficer at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Rabarberofficer at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2024
I'm not really a Harris fan, but I really fucking hate Donald Trump, and seeing America's douchiest dudes endorse him has made it clear to me I'm right to vote for her. There is no doubt in my mind that anyone Elon Musk and Joe Rogan think is great is a piece of total shit.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
I am dumbfounded by the willful degradation of this country at the hands of adult people who should reasonably be expected to recognize fascism when it is kicking them in the teeth.
posted by Nancy_LockIsLit_Palmer at 5:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
posted by Nancy_LockIsLit_Palmer at 5:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
I imagine that they think they will be the ones kicking in teeth.
posted by Blienmeis at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by Blienmeis at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
With Spirit Halloween closed down for the year, the haunted skull of Rick Scott has now been returned to the Senate.
posted by mittens at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
It's so wild that this all boils down to the opinions of people so stupid, it's a minor miracle they cannot be hypnotized by the shininess of aluminum foil.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
There's been a campaign of disinformation and conditioning ongoing for at least a decade in earnest that's left half the population in a bubble of epistemological unreality. We've known about this since 2016 but there hasn't been any grand effort to reverse it, because half the government are beneficiaries of the bullshit hose.
Win or lose, this is still going to be a huge problem with people within and outside the country working against a solution. My feeling is that the solution is going to be generational, teach the kids civics and bullshit detection.
Whatever the fix is, it starts with getting rid of this asshole today.
posted by adept256 at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Win or lose, this is still going to be a huge problem with people within and outside the country working against a solution. My feeling is that the solution is going to be generational, teach the kids civics and bullshit detection.
Whatever the fix is, it starts with getting rid of this asshole today.
posted by adept256 at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Jeez, my inner Ralph Wiggum is really going "Haha, I'm in danger" at full volume tonight. Lots of love and respect for anyone else whose cortisol is through the fucking roof right now.
posted by Rinku at 5:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
posted by Rinku at 5:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
May all voters who are getting suppressed have the courage to stay in line and be counted if they can.
posted by edithkeeler at 5:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by edithkeeler at 5:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
The cats can sense my stress and they’re mad at me.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I'm in a men's halfway house in Knoxville TN. I've heard most of them say pro-Trump stuff in the last few days. The TV is tuned to Fox. They think Trump is winning.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
The Onion's Spin.
(I'm calling something similar to 2020, with several days of dicking around and an eventual weekend win. A landslide would be nice, but hey.)
posted by ovvl at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
(I'm calling something similar to 2020, with several days of dicking around and an eventual weekend win. A landslide would be nice, but hey.)
posted by ovvl at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
mygodsmygodsMYGODS.
A BAD NIGHT FOR SMOKING A JEETER™
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
A BAD NIGHT FOR SMOKING A JEETER™
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Anyone else having a very hard time listening to Steve Kornaki? I know, I know, but he goes on and on about the minutia and I just want him to get on with it.
posted by blue shadows at 5:46 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by blue shadows at 5:46 PM on November 5, 2024
They think Trump is winning.
All of the sites seem to give Trump the win currently because they all are basing it off past returns and polling...so he's got like 60-70% win on Decision Desk and 278 electoral college votes on the NYT. Just screw this....they need to find a better way to rep this uncertainty. So much is up on the air yet I keep hyperventilating remembering how 2016 was called at like 9pm EST.
posted by beaning at 5:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
All of the sites seem to give Trump the win currently because they all are basing it off past returns and polling...so he's got like 60-70% win on Decision Desk and 278 electoral college votes on the NYT. Just screw this....they need to find a better way to rep this uncertainty. So much is up on the air yet I keep hyperventilating remembering how 2016 was called at like 9pm EST.
posted by beaning at 5:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
This election is not like the last ones. It's absurd to think it would be. It really isn't over until it's over.
posted by mollweide at 5:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by mollweide at 5:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
It was definitely later than that, but it wasn't looking good then.
posted by deludingmyself at 5:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
It was definitely later than that, but it wasn't looking good then.
posted by deludingmyself at 5:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Harris is doing worse with Hispanics (overall, not with each group) and African American males, and is not getting the boost in turnout that was hoped, BUT she is doing way better than expected with white women.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I remember 2016, I was driving home from an election night viewing party in the early morning hours when Pennsylvania was called--I heard it on the car radio.
posted by gimonca at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by gimonca at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
Yeah, it didn't look good at 9pm but I woke up at 3am and they had just called it. I'll never forget that.
posted by vrakatar at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Yeah, it didn't look good at 9pm but I woke up at 3am and they had just called it. I'll never forget that.
posted by vrakatar at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
BTW Twitter/X has been flooded by conservatives with the most insane AI slop about avenging Peanut the Squirrel. Worth checking out as the perfect snapshot of the utter stupidity of the current moment.
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I feel woozy. Hate the wait.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
After over 200 years, the arcane and convoluted Electoral College mechanic has grown a little stale. I feel we should use modern game design to liven it up by making it even more arcane and convoluted.
We could add tickets from Ticket to Ride: an extra 10 electoral votes if you get the most of the original 13 colonies, Four corner bonus for getting Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona. Obviously winning your opponent's home state should be worth more.
Some states might have their own subsystem for determining votes. Michigan could have a packing efficiency subsystem like Feast for Odin or Patchwork: you have to win each county but you have arrange the counties by boundary onto a square, only gaining those votes in the square: real time gerrymandering!
West of the Mississippi should probably be some of deck-builder for issues: "Hmmm, 'Support Renewable Energy' is available for 15 Electoral Votes but 'Deficit Hawk' is really cheap at 2, I know '2nd Amendment Rights' is still in the deck, since I'm required to buy an issue, I'm going to just take 'Deficit Hawk' this turn, rollover the rest.
posted by lowtide at 5:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
We could add tickets from Ticket to Ride: an extra 10 electoral votes if you get the most of the original 13 colonies, Four corner bonus for getting Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona. Obviously winning your opponent's home state should be worth more.
Some states might have their own subsystem for determining votes. Michigan could have a packing efficiency subsystem like Feast for Odin or Patchwork: you have to win each county but you have arrange the counties by boundary onto a square, only gaining those votes in the square: real time gerrymandering!
West of the Mississippi should probably be some of deck-builder for issues: "Hmmm, 'Support Renewable Energy' is available for 15 Electoral Votes but 'Deficit Hawk' is really cheap at 2, I know '2nd Amendment Rights' is still in the deck, since I'm required to buy an issue, I'm going to just take 'Deficit Hawk' this turn, rollover the rest.
posted by lowtide at 5:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
I held on to some measure of optimism for most of the day but this evening has me shook.
posted by prefpara at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Change in Florida comes almost entirely from depressed Democratic turnout. Smells very fishy.
posted by cosmic owl at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by cosmic owl at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
No. I was living on the east coast at the time and we passed out around midnight and they hadn't called it yet.
Woke up the nexxt morning and switched the news on and knew instantly from the expressions on their faces who had won.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
No. I was living on the east coast at the time and we passed out around midnight and they hadn't called it yet.
Woke up the nexxt morning and switched the news on and knew instantly from the expressions on their faces who had won.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Florida counts fairly quickly -- 27 of 28 House races have been called, and it looks like no seats will change party control.
Florida Senate: Scott was leading in the polls by about 4 or 5 percent, he's now leading by 13% with 87% of the vote counted. So, Florida statewide polling continues to be awful and embarrassing.
posted by gimonca at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Florida Senate: Scott was leading in the polls by about 4 or 5 percent, he's now leading by 13% with 87% of the vote counted. So, Florida statewide polling continues to be awful and embarrassing.
posted by gimonca at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The main thing to know is that a majority of your fellow citizens hate you, yes you personally, no matter who you are.
posted by aramaic at 6:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
posted by aramaic at 6:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
Are the results so far in line with the red mirage/blue wave effect? Because I remember my stomach turning over itself in 2020....
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Ok, fine, per the Guardian timeline was clear by 10-11pm that 2016 wasn't going as expected but Clinton didn't concede until early morning.
I was with family and I just remember all the guys being like "crap the guy I voted for looks to be the winner" and the women being like, "you did what?" Do not want a repeat of that this year.
posted by beaning at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I was with family and I just remember all the guys being like "crap the guy I voted for looks to be the winner" and the women being like, "you did what?" Do not want a repeat of that this year.
posted by beaning at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I just remembered a tweet from 2020, when Ira Madison III (who had a blue check) changed his display name to Beto O'Rourke and his pic to Beto's picture, and wrote "if Texas goes blue I'll release nudes." Anyway, Mr. Madison got banned that night but it made me laugh so hard and honestly still does.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The Trumpy precincts have gotten Trumpier, and have come in first. Whether the blue precincts come in equivalently bluer is yet to be seen.
posted by argybarg at 6:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Yeah this red mirage thing is fucken killing me. But I remember it being this way 4 years ago.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Fucking Moldova went the right way on their election this week. Do you know how embarrassing it would be to make worse decisions than Moldova?
(Sorry, Moldova.)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
(Sorry, Moldova.)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
The Mexican place I was going to hit up was way too crowded, am at a pizza joint instead. They have MSNBC on and there are WAAAAY too many "too close to call " states for my comfort.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:14 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:14 PM on November 5, 2024
WaPo says Florida's amendment to protect the right to abortion fails, 6 week ban remains in place. I'm so sorry, Florida friends.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Fuck DeSantis and his 60% threshold.
posted by lock robster at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Florida amendment required a 60% vote to pass, for what it's worth. It sounds like it got 57%.
posted by gimonca at 6:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
The fucking NYT needle has Trump at 76%.
posted by argybarg at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I'm not at all surprised about Florida. The influx of MAGA hat wearing loons has been massive. Sad about Amendments 2 and 3, though. I thought there was a good chance of them hitting 60%. I think they're both on track to hit over 50%, at least. Doesn't change anything, but it would make me feel a bit better about who I'm sharing space with.
posted by wierdo at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
The fucking NYT needle is run for the benefit of the oligarchy.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
ABC Australia's projections ain't looking too hot either - 199 Harris, 218 Trump
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 5, 2024
I thought the Needle movers were on strike?
I don't know why I just imagined 7 little mice letting go of the needle and walking out on a picket line.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I don't know why I just imagined 7 little mice letting go of the needle and walking out on a picket line.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I just got home after 1.5 hours of traffic, took an hour just to get out of the city alone, I'm tired, I'm cranky, I don't WANNA go to rehearsal and we are doing the same beginning scenes we rehearsed over and over for the last two months and I could do in my sleep and I need better distraction than THAT if I absolutely have to go. At least do some new stuff. Oh well, don't know why I want to be home to see all the doom anyway. Might as well stay in the imaginary limbo I was in in the car listening to my emo audiobook.
Try Yelling Fuck!
(Basically I am posting this just so I can find where I left off as I try to sneak my phone while on stage 95% of the time. Sigh.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Try Yelling Fuck!
(Basically I am posting this just so I can find where I left off as I try to sneak my phone while on stage 95% of the time. Sigh.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Thinking – not for the first time, and surely not for the last – how very glad I am I don't have kids.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by non canadian guy at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
I thought the Needle movers were on strike?
This must therefore be a scab Needle
posted by otherchaz at 6:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
This must therefore be a scab Needle
posted by otherchaz at 6:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
The IT folks for the Needle are on strike. It sounded like other people could input data, but if it were to break, the resources wouldn't be there to fix it.
Whoever takes this instrument of torture out of the basement every 2 years has a dark heart filled with malice.
posted by past unusual at 6:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Whoever takes this instrument of torture out of the basement every 2 years has a dark heart filled with malice.
posted by past unusual at 6:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Change in Florida comes almost entirely from depressed Democratic turnout. Smells very fishy.
Please don't do the "If we're losing the system must be rigged," with no evidence. There will be plenty of that crap on the other side.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Please don't do the "If we're losing the system must be rigged," with no evidence. There will be plenty of that crap on the other side.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have kids.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I was supposed to have therapy at 5 today, but I called in to the admin office to give them my new information, since I just got started on Medicare and a supplement at the beginning of the month. They said they weren't allowed to do Medicare, so I had to cancel my much-needed appointment and don't know whether I'll be charged a cancellation fee or not. Started crying before I even hung up the phone. I could have probably kept it and paid out of pocket, but I'm a poor, so I didn't. What a day to find that out. I'm so scared I probably wouldn't even be able to have made any sense or spoken coherently anyway, but still, it would have been nice to kill an hour with someone who's basically supposed to talk you down from all that stress.
This just all feels like 2016 all over again. I feel like I'm going to throw up. My friend who worked a polling place in Philly though said it turned out to be a decent day and not nearly as terrifying as she had expected. But who knows what to expect.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 6:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
This just all feels like 2016 all over again. I feel like I'm going to throw up. My friend who worked a polling place in Philly though said it turned out to be a decent day and not nearly as terrifying as she had expected. But who knows what to expect.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 6:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have klonopin.
posted by mochapickle at 6:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 6:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Oh fuck me, I'd literally kill for a Klonopin right now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have Metafilter
…and Lost Republic whiskey
posted by foonly at 6:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
…and Lost Republic whiskey
posted by foonly at 6:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Way too early to jump to conclusions. Republican states tend to report faster. No swing states have been called yet, and I wouldn't have expected any to be called by now anyway.
House races that have been called are the easy, uncompetitive ones, which includes a crapton of heavily gerrymandered Republican districts.
And remember, folks, when you see the maps....land doesn't vote.
posted by gimonca at 6:33 PM on November 5, 2024 [35 favorites]
House races that have been called are the easy, uncompetitive ones, which includes a crapton of heavily gerrymandered Republican districts.
And remember, folks, when you see the maps....land doesn't vote.
posted by gimonca at 6:33 PM on November 5, 2024 [35 favorites]
Currently Trump has 154 to Harris' 53. I know it's early still and I shouldn't be handwringing just yet but....
posted by zardoz at 6:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 6:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Oh fuck me, I'd literally kill for a Klonopin right now.
Hey, I texted you a list, let me know what you think!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Hey, I texted you a list, let me know what you think!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I just have ibuprofen and Tums it’ll have to do
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
You can't handwring just yet. It's not the blowout we wanted, but the suburban and city counties are the last to report, so all the swing states look redder now than they should.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I am hearing on NBC that Trump is doing better than expected with young voters and black voters. That is disturbing. I get that not all the states are in yet, but doesn’t that suggest bad things coming down the road in the other states too? Or am I catastrophizing early?
posted by prefpara at 6:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 6:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Can anyone tell me how worried I should be about Virginia.
posted by runcifex at 6:37 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by runcifex at 6:37 PM on November 5, 2024
As to the race, I’ll probably go to sleep without looking at results too much, cause why worry over something I can’t control. If it’s gonna be shitshow then it can be dealt with tomorrow.
I don’t think it’s gonna be a shitshow, that comes later with a Republican Senate stopping Harris from doing a lot her first two years
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I don’t think it’s gonna be a shitshow, that comes later with a Republican Senate stopping Harris from doing a lot her first two years
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
And R's have the red southern states already counted. The west is more D friendly.
I mean I'm still terrified but trying to pull the reins on it a bit.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I mean I'm still terrified but trying to pull the reins on it a bit.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
If 2016 is any guide, now is the time to freak out. But they thought it was a blowout, and we've always known it was a coin-flip. Pretty sure Selzer whiffed it though.
posted by netowl at 6:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by netowl at 6:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
There've been articles about Trump making inroads with young Black and Hispanic male voters but it's hard to tell at this point what that will ultimately mean for the vote total, though it clearly means Dems/the libs have fucked up with those voter groups.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Can anyone tell me how worried I should be about Virginia.
I used to live in Virginia and the blue areas always count slow.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I used to live in Virginia and the blue areas always count slow.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
kill for a Klonopin
Name of my new punk band and wow! I remember Klonopin! We used to chomp on those!
posted by vrakatar at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Name of my new punk band and wow! I remember Klonopin! We used to chomp on those!
posted by vrakatar at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
And over on NBC there's been some claims that young voters on college campuses were swayed by Rogan's last minute endorsement.
posted by mochapickle at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by mochapickle at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Also, she hasn't lost anything Biden won in 2020. Panic if you want but it's still early.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Senate is definitely going red.
posted by lock robster at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by lock robster at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
A lot of the skepticism around polling was that the pollsters were undercounting new black and younger voters who were mobilized by dobbs/harris. If those demos are moving toward trump it’s very bad
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
There've been articles about Trump making inroads with young Black and Hispanic male voters but it's hard to tell at this point what that will ultimately mean for the vote total, though it clearly means Dems/the libs have fucked up with those voter groups.
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Well, NY state just voted in an ERA something like 75-25.
DAMN STRAIGHT.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
DAMN STRAIGHT.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
I genuinely need to figure out how to manage mentally when my home country - and in some cases, parts of states I have deep connections to - have become incomprehensible and increasingly menacing to me. And when my home city is no doubt going to become a whipping boy for the Trump regime. I have no answers, and no ability to leave.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
At this point every state has voted the same way it did in 2020. It would be nice if some had flipped but these results are meaningless so far.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
And no, I’m not asking for the price vs in town.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
And no, I’m not asking for the price vs in town.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Still some blue areas that haven't finished reporting in Virginia. Wouldn't freak out...not just yet, let Arlington and Richmond come in, other bluish areas need to finish coming in.
Kaine is leading. Vindman is leading in Virginia-7.
posted by gimonca at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Kaine is leading. Vindman is leading in Virginia-7.
posted by gimonca at 6:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Associated Press' election night overage
posted by otherchaz at 6:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 6:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Equal Rights Amendment
posted by prefpara at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
Equal Rights Amendment. Outlaws discrimination based on sex.
posted by NotLost at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Equal Rights Amendment. Outlaws discrimination based on sex.
posted by NotLost at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I'm finding this map the most useful on desktop browser because I can hover over each state and see the current count and percentage counted:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
posted by Jacqueline at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
posted by Jacqueline at 6:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
Equal Rights Amendment. Basically it is now constitutionally illegal to discriminate on the basis of sex in NY state now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Equal Rights Amendment. Basically it is now constitutionally illegal to discriminate on the basis of sex in NY state now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Sarah McBride becomes the first out transgender person elected to congress. (Delaware)
posted by oneirodynia at 6:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
posted by oneirodynia at 6:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [38 favorites]
Earned run average, the new law will compel all NY state residents to play recreational baseball.
posted by vrakatar at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
I am watching local races too, and it seems like results are coming in more slowly than I've ever seen. We think maybe it's because more people were in line, meaning the polls closed later. (This is in New Mexico.)
posted by NotLost at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
non canadian guy
No, it means the Dems/libs have fucked up with those voter groups. You're just making excuses.
I think there's been a lot of complacency with regard to these groups and other POC on the left because it's been assumed that obviously they would always support Democrats and would never go to the right. This complacency has maybe led to not actually delivering as much for these groups because why work hard for voters already in the bag? I think this is the result, leaving openings for Republicans to peel off their voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
non canadian guy
No, it means the Dems/libs have fucked up with those voter groups. You're just making excuses.
I think there's been a lot of complacency with regard to these groups and other POC on the left because it's been assumed that obviously they would always support Democrats and would never go to the right. This complacency has maybe led to not actually delivering as much for these groups because why work hard for voters already in the bag? I think this is the result, leaving openings for Republicans to peel off their voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Have we talked about Sarah McBride winning the Delaware congressional seat? She will be the first openly transgender member of Congress!
posted by Fritzle at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by Fritzle at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
If this ERA is new, that’s unexpected, especially for NY State.
We had that in 1977 in New South Wales plus 1984 federally down under.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
We had that in 1977 in New South Wales plus 1984 federally down under.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Young voters trending toward Trump has another obvious explanation - the left-leaning folks who are not voting for Harris because of Gaza. How many are there? I don’t think anyone has quantified it, but it’s a factor.
posted by mai at 6:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by mai at 6:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a THING.
posted by kybix at 6:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by kybix at 6:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Little bit of good news, Sharice Davids has been re-elected in Kansas-3.
posted by gimonca at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
We should probably wait for the postmortem until after the patient is actually dead.
posted by mittens at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by mittens at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
A third explanation is it’s the demographic that’s known only post-9/11 wartime tactical masculinity their entire lives
posted by Jon_Evil at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Not that it's relevant or anything, but I just got laid off today (entire subsidiary in Canada just closed) - TFG winning would make my getting another job all that much harder.
Best wishes, American friends.
posted by porpoise at 6:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Best wishes, American friends.
posted by porpoise at 6:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
ELECTION ALERT: Still Too Early To Know Which Minority To Scapegoat [The Onion]
posted by aubilenon at 6:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
posted by aubilenon at 6:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [22 favorites]
Another option: we are but the playthings of a trickster god
posted by dis_integration at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
This is all so fucking embarassing.
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Here's a picture of Jill Stein dining with Putin and Michael Flynn.
posted by adept256 at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 6:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
The people who were so fucking obnoxious about "she has to earn my vote!!1!" when the stakes of this election were clear? Fuck that, they're getting blamed.
posted by azpenguin at 7:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [40 favorites]
The people who were so fucking obnoxious about "she has to earn my vote!!1!" when the stakes of this election were clear? Fuck that, they're getting blamed.
posted by azpenguin at 7:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [40 favorites]
Yet, not voting for Harris does make sense as to why Trump could win this election. So...
posted by kybix at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by kybix at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes
Wrong.
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Failing to understand that lies behind quite a lot of leftist failures over the past century and a half.
posted by aramaic at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Wrong.
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Failing to understand that lies behind quite a lot of leftist failures over the past century and a half.
posted by aramaic at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Looking at the math thus far, I don't think third-party voting is going to matter enough to warrant the vituperation to come.
posted by mittens at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by mittens at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
Someone is going to be elected President from this election. That someone is going to be Trump or not-Trump, which in practical terms is Harris. So while they didn't get Trump votes they also did not add to the not-Trump numbers when they could have done so by voting for Harris, which either way allows for a Trump victory.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Someone is going to be elected President from this election. That someone is going to be Trump or not-Trump, which in practical terms is Harris. So while they didn't get Trump votes they also did not add to the not-Trump numbers when they could have done so by voting for Harris, which either way allows for a Trump victory.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
To be clear I am not blaming anyone who didn’t vote for Harris, and I do think politicians have to earn our votes. Nor am I doing a post-mortem, it’s obviously not over yet.
I was responding to the earlier comment about why Trump might be getting a relatively larger share of younger voters.
posted by mai at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
I was responding to the earlier comment about why Trump might be getting a relatively larger share of younger voters.
posted by mai at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Nearly two-thirds of Arizonans who backed Harris said they viewed their ballot as a vote for her, while about a third of her supporters said it was a vote against Trump. That’s according to AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 4,100 voters in the state. Among Trump's voters, about 8 in 10 said their vote was for him. Only about 2 in 10 said it was a vote against Harris.
posted by lock robster at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
So, I would simply like to say this. Before you blame the left for delivering less than 1% of the vote to Jill Stein, please consider how easy it would have been for Kamala Harris to have pretended to give just the finest smidgen of a fuck about their concerns. This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
Early voting + vacation felt like a good avoidance measure, but I flew home today.
posted by Sphinx at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Sphinx at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Do you think those people are voting for Trump because they hate Kamala Harris? I don't. I think they're voting for exactly what they want.
Look, you don't have to like the idea that people vote for candidates they want to see win, but I do think it would be a good idea to accept it as a highly plausible reality.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Do you think those people are voting for Trump because they hate Kamala Harris? I don't. I think they're voting for exactly what they want.
Look, you don't have to like the idea that people vote for candidates they want to see win, but I do think it would be a good idea to accept it as a highly plausible reality.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
NBC says there was a PA exit poll where Latino voters broke hard for Trump and I would like please to live in a sane world. But I do not seem to. This is like being in a horror movie.
posted by prefpara at 7:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 7:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Colorado update via Colorado Public Radio's live blog:
At 7:50 p.m., I called the PIO of El Paso County Clerk and Recorder's office about the lack of any election results — especially because El Paso County is the state's most populous county. The spokesperson said they still have people waiting on line to vote,and will not release results until everyone who has lined up to vote by 7 p.m. has a chance to have done so. That means it could be until 8:30 p.m. or 8:45 before they release their results, the PIO told me.posted by audi alteram partem at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
posted by NotLost at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
They weighed the scales and gambled you were lighter. They may yet be right, or wrong, but you can rejoice in the fact that more Palestinians will die when he wins.
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Yay?
posted by aramaic at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
They weighed the scales and gambled you were lighter. They may yet be right, or wrong, but you can rejoice in the fact that more Palestinians will die when he wins.
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Yay?
posted by aramaic at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
"In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person."
If my husband and I -- both lifelong Libertarians -- could suck it up and support* Harris this election because we recognize the exisistenial threat posed by Trump, then leftists and progressives have no excuse.
(*Technically we voted for de la Cruz, but only because we vote-swapped with some Socialists in Pennsylvania to get them to vote Harris in a state where it actually mattered. We live in Washington, which is a safe blue state, so the best use of our votes was to swap.)
posted by Jacqueline at 7:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
If my husband and I -- both lifelong Libertarians -- could suck it up and support* Harris this election because we recognize the exisistenial threat posed by Trump, then leftists and progressives have no excuse.
(*Technically we voted for de la Cruz, but only because we vote-swapped with some Socialists in Pennsylvania to get them to vote Harris in a state where it actually mattered. We live in Washington, which is a safe blue state, so the best use of our votes was to swap.)
posted by Jacqueline at 7:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I'm just saying, I could see it coming. I'm not saying anybody has to like it or agree with it. I hope, though, that people might start to get the idea that actually appealing to your base could get you elected. It worked for Trump once and it may again.
That said, right now the blue and red states are identical to 2020. I know it seems scary but this is basically a time zone thing, which states finish counting first. It would be fine if Harris won West Virginia and Kentucky, but it can't be too surprising that she didn't.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
That said, right now the blue and red states are identical to 2020. I know it seems scary but this is basically a time zone thing, which states finish counting first. It would be fine if Harris won West Virginia and Kentucky, but it can't be too surprising that she didn't.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
ABC Australia: Palestinians in Jerusalem speak on the US election
The narrow, winding laneways of Jerusalem’s ancient Old City seem a world away from the electoral carnival happening in the United States.posted by creatrixtiara at 7:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
But people here are paying close attention to what’s going on – knowing full well that whoever takes the White House will have dealing with the Middle East conflict among the top items on their presidential to-do list.
The Old City is as divided as this region, and in the Muslim Quarter there’s serious scepticism anything will actually change.
Four generations of Adnan Ja’far’s family have been running a sweets shop in the Old City for the last 70 years.
He’s not convinced either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will help the situation.
“For me, personally, they are all the same for Palestinians,” he said.
“I don’t think they can move for us, or make something for Palestinians, because they’re always helping the war – and the aeroplanes and the bombs, they give it to them.”
That’s a reference to US military aid to Israel – which continues, despite the Biden administration’s criticism of Israel allowing humanitarian support into Gaza.
It’s a sentiment shared by 63-year-old Muna, shopping nearby.
“The US election is not good for Palestinians. Either Trump or either the other one – they are not good for Palestine.”
When pressed on why, she turned her head and said the world would know her reasons for making those comments.
33-year-old Duaa Saideh has a bit more hope change is coming. And she thinks it’s in the form of Kamala Harris.
She said former president Trump’s controversial decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognising the disputed Holy City as Israel’s capital, is seared into the minds of Palestinians.
“We know him before, and what he did in Jerusalem is not that good for us.”
Nearby, 57-year-old Tawfik is watching on from a restaurant.
He’s no Trump or Harris fan – but says at least you know what you’re getting with the former president.
In other words, if Donald Trump is going to support Israel over the Palestinians, Tawfik thinks he’ll be upfront about it rather than giving the community false hope.
“Trump when he promise, he keeps his promises - he’s a businessman,” he said.
“For me, the less bad is Trump. I hope he will win.”
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
Well, they're a fuck of a lot closer to it than Dick Cheney.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Well, they're a fuck of a lot closer to it than Dick Cheney.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I guess I'll just never understand this line of thinking:
Voter: "I'm extremely concerned about the environment. What are you going to do for me?"
Candidate A: "I'm not going to do as much as you want but I'll do something."
Candidate B: "I intend to make recycling illegal, require lead in gasoline, and will have every forest on federal land burned down and cleared for private strip mining and oil drilling."
Voter: "Candidate A is generally more aligned with my views but isn't giving me enough to earn my vote so I'm going to sit this one out and vote for no one."
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [55 favorites]
Voter: "I'm extremely concerned about the environment. What are you going to do for me?"
Candidate A: "I'm not going to do as much as you want but I'll do something."
Candidate B: "I intend to make recycling illegal, require lead in gasoline, and will have every forest on federal land burned down and cleared for private strip mining and oil drilling."
Voter: "Candidate A is generally more aligned with my views but isn't giving me enough to earn my vote so I'm going to sit this one out and vote for no one."
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [55 favorites]
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Pls, this is totally unnecessary
posted by ginger.beef at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Pls, this is totally unnecessary
posted by ginger.beef at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
well yeah, the whole democratic party told them to fuck off so I would hope they could figure it out.
posted by Iax at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Iax at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2024
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
No need (or point) to litigate Gaza here.... but let's not pretend that Harris's potentially lost votes are because of some abstract progressive/left issues that "Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction"... these votes are lost because of Gaza.
And in the case of arab voters in Michigan, for example, this is a very difficult issue to overlook. And Harris and her surrogates did absolutely nothing to mollify their concerns (or give them hope for a different path than Biden has taken). Instead they sent people like Bill Clinton to lecture Palestinians in Michigan about how Gaza is their fault. And Liz Cheney.
posted by pjenks at 7:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
No need (or point) to litigate Gaza here.... but let's not pretend that Harris's potentially lost votes are because of some abstract progressive/left issues that "Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction"... these votes are lost because of Gaza.
And in the case of arab voters in Michigan, for example, this is a very difficult issue to overlook. And Harris and her surrogates did absolutely nothing to mollify their concerns (or give them hope for a different path than Biden has taken). Instead they sent people like Bill Clinton to lecture Palestinians in Michigan about how Gaza is their fault. And Liz Cheney.
posted by pjenks at 7:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
My alcoholic family member has broken sobriety and I can’t even really be mad about it.
However, can we wait to fight about who is responsible for Harris losing until Harris has…you know…actually lost?
posted by corb at 7:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
However, can we wait to fight about who is responsible for Harris losing until Harris has…you know…actually lost?
posted by corb at 7:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
The Blue mountain and Pacific west have yet to be really called. Battlegrounds, granted their sensitivity, have a lot more counting left to go.
Night - young
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Night - young
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
Yes, my point is that my husband and I are even farther from being in "the base" and yet we still voted like our choice this year was Democrats or fascism. So why couldn't people who have even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats also figure that out and do the right thing?
posted by Jacqueline at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Yes, my point is that my husband and I are even farther from being in "the base" and yet we still voted like our choice this year was Democrats or fascism. So why couldn't people who have even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats also figure that out and do the right thing?
posted by Jacqueline at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Can someone help me understand, sincerely, if the nyt needle is generally accurate?
I’m kind of freaking out
posted by das_2099 at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I’m kind of freaking out
posted by das_2099 at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Do you know anywhere that has a cartogram for this election? That's a type of map where, in this case, the size of the states are adjusted in proportion to the number of electoral votes they each have.
Because land doesn't vote.
posted by NotLost at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Because land doesn't vote.
posted by NotLost at 7:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
It's a scab needle and it is not to be trusted.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
The Blue mountain and Pacific west have yet to be really called.
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
WaPo has a cartogram but it may be subscribers only.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/president/
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/president/
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I've spent the last two decades using my vote for Nader as a cautionary tale. Facts are facts and reality is tough. We lose in a big way if we don't make smart moves of smaller progress in lieu of expected progress. We, who care, lose and concede power to something worse. I hope that's not happening right now.
posted by kybix at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by kybix at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
@kittens for breakfast:
Can you expand on that a little?
I’m not being argumentative, I’m just losing it a bit
posted by das_2099 at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2024
Can you expand on that a little?
I’m not being argumentative, I’m just losing it a bit
posted by das_2099 at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2024
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
Libertarians are also against genocide AND we're against Democratic economic policies, so again, we have far more differences with her than you do and yet we were still capable of recognizing that defeating Trump was more important.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Libertarians are also against genocide AND we're against Democratic economic policies, so again, we have far more differences with her than you do and yet we were still capable of recognizing that defeating Trump was more important.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
The needle it crew all went on strike yesterday
posted by Iax at 7:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Iax at 7:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
We are going to lose, it feels like.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
CNN reporting that officials in Nevada are having problems verifying authenticity of a large number of ballots from young people. Apparently the signatures aren't matching because youngsters (in their 20s) don't know how to write their names.
posted by sardonyx at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by sardonyx at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I've gotten impatient with leftists and the pure illogic of thinking that abstaining from voting is dismantling the US presidency in any way.
posted by ichomp at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
The tech side of NYT is on strike. Literally. So whoever is making the needle happen is a scab who may or may not have an idea what the fuck they're doing. Even if they do, you have a moral duty to ignore that needle.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
The impression I’ve gotten from Harris surrogates like Obama recently is that Hispanic and Black men haven’t shown up for Harris any better than White men
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
The Australian ABC has a map that turns the states into hexagons that represent electoral college votes: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-election-2024-live-results-electoral-map-who-is-winning/104514296
They use the AP as the basis for their calls.
posted by freethefeet at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
They use the AP as the basis for their calls.
posted by freethefeet at 7:24 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
AND we're against Democratic economic policies
So are actual leftists and socialists? That isn't really a very strong argument.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
So are actual leftists and socialists? That isn't really a very strong argument.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Harris leading Maricopa County with 54% of the vote counted. Looks like that time in AZ has paid off.
posted by lock robster at 7:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 7:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Missed an hour of results. hang on...
posted by Windopaene at 7:27 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Windopaene at 7:27 PM on November 5, 2024
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
Yeah it’s not looking *good* but the battleground states are still toss-ups afaik.
posted by corb at 7:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Yeah it’s not looking *good* but the battleground states are still toss-ups afaik.
posted by corb at 7:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I've always said the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast, the way it is perpetually the deciding factor whenever Democrats don't get their way.
posted by mittens at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by mittens at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I'm much preferring 270 to win to decision desk . I took my sleep and allergy meds, so now to try to sleep and hopefully wake up to a sane world tomorrow
posted by Art_Pot at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Art_Pot at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Guys, can we not rip each other to shreds over this election while its still uncertain? Heck, can we not rip each other to shreds even afterward? If this goes badly its because a fuck ton of our fellow Americans voted positively for a fascist. Even if you think someone should have voted for Harris but didn't, or if you think Harris should have run her campaign differently, neither the Harris protesters or the Harris supporters are the real enemy.
posted by Reverend John at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [35 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [35 favorites]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
posted by paulcole at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by paulcole at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
NotLost the folks at the Australian ABC have got your back; it's the kind of projection they apply for Australian electoral maps.
posted by MarchHare at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by MarchHare at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Could we maybe not fight each other until at least one swing state has been called?
posted by invincible summer at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by invincible summer at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Bomb threats against Atlanta polling places originated in Russia
posted by corb at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by corb at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I've always said the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast, the way it is perpetually the deciding factor whenever Democrats don't get their way.
These takes are always weird to me. Recent elections have been decided by just a few thousand or even few hundred votes. The whole point is that modern elections are so close that even the smallest shift in voters can make a difference.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
These takes are always weird to me. Recent elections have been decided by just a few thousand or even few hundred votes. The whole point is that modern elections are so close that even the smallest shift in voters can make a difference.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Art_Pot, your link is a user-generated map; it doesn't reflect reality, unfortunately. :( wistful thinking though!
posted by dubious_dude at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by dubious_dude at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024
AP themselves have a map with boxes for electoral votes and hover for more information. (It's not a cartogram though)
posted by ctmf at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ctmf at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
But then they would have to stop celebrating all the 2000 era republican monsters
posted by Iax at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
But then they would have to stop celebrating all the 2000 era republican monsters
posted by Iax at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I keep saying it, but from what I can tell not one state has flipped from 2020 so far. I understand it would be more exciting to win dramatically, but this doesn't look like losing yet. It looks like a rerun.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
Thanks for the info re: the needle - i knew the tech staff was on strike (no wordle or nyt crosswords here) - i didn’t put together theat they ran the needle
posted by das_2099 at 7:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by das_2099 at 7:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
AAAAAAAAAAAH OOOOOOOOHHHHHHH SHIIIIIIIIITTTT FUUUUUUCCCCCK.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
In summary, please send your immigrant/trans kids to my house and we will hide them in our basement.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Pennsylvania is making me nervous. I know we need to wait and see but the early Harris lead turning into a knife's edge favoring TFG is not bringing me joy.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 7:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Ignorantsavage at 7:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Just watched some news.
Fuck me.
Just, how?, c'mon blue/purple states
posted by Windopaene at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Fuck me.
Just, how?, c'mon blue/purple states
posted by Windopaene at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Yeah, I keep saying it, but from what I can tell not one state has flipped from 2020 so far.
I believe Decision Desk has called Georgia for Trump
posted by fortitude25 at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024
I believe Decision Desk has called Georgia for Trump
posted by fortitude25 at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024
These takes are always weird to me.
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss. Nor was the left celebrated during Biden's win--nobody was patting socialists on the back for getting him in. The left's role in American politics always seems to be the scapegoat, and that can't possibly be accurate (or fair).
posted by mittens at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss. Nor was the left celebrated during Biden's win--nobody was patting socialists on the back for getting him in. The left's role in American politics always seems to be the scapegoat, and that can't possibly be accurate (or fair).
posted by mittens at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
What?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:36 PM on November 5, 2024
CNN live expert analysis says: “Trump holds leads in GA, NC, and now in PA -- but there are still plenty of votes to be counted for Harris to come back. For instance, Trump has now taken the lead in Pennsylvania by 58,000 votes. But at this exact point in 2020, Trump led by 200,000 votes. Looks like a long night -- and maybe some days after that.”
posted by brook horse at 7:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 7:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
Boebert called for her new district, CO-04. You'll remember she switched to Ken Buck's old seat when it looked like she'd lose CO-03.
posted by mochapickle at 7:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by mochapickle at 7:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
neither the Harris protesters or the Harris supporters are the real enemy
Not enemies, but tonight as we're all watching... is a numbers game. And Harris protesters who didn't vote for her contribute to the numbers game. I do empathize with thoughts, beliefs... I might even feel the same way. But this exercise we are going through, is a numbers game. And not voting for Harris contributes. Just facts.
posted by kybix at 7:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Not enemies, but tonight as we're all watching... is a numbers game. And Harris protesters who didn't vote for her contribute to the numbers game. I do empathize with thoughts, beliefs... I might even feel the same way. But this exercise we are going through, is a numbers game. And not voting for Harris contributes. Just facts.
posted by kybix at 7:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
posted by Rykey at 7:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
posted by Rykey at 7:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Oh: and it's pretty obvious by now, that Ann Seltzer poll of Iowa was completely wrong. NYT just called Iowa for Trump.
posted by fortitude25 at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by fortitude25 at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
So long as voting against the worse choice isn't enough, the worse choice will win more, and more, and more.
posted by tclark at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
So long as voting against the worse choice isn't enough, the worse choice will win more, and more, and more.
posted by tclark at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
Maybe you're not in the right discords?
posted by ryanrs at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Maybe you're not in the right discords?
posted by ryanrs at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
OK, so Trump's foreign allies called in bomb threats to polling places in Democratic areas in Georgia, preventing thousands of people from voting, and now Georgia is looking like it's going to go Trump and if it costs Harris the win she's just going to do what Gore did and let happen isn't she?
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Dammit I said I wasn't gonna stress over this but here I am, stressing over this. The same folks that said Harris is going to win also said she's win North Carolina, also maybe Florida. That didn't happen. Right now Pennsylvania really does look like a coin flip. Someone please talk me down.
posted by zardoz at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Oh gosh, everyone got their tickets to get out of the country yet?
posted by sammyo at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by sammyo at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024
Ok i need to check out from this thread and listen to some music (probably Gong and Magma). Much love to the MF mods, need to up my contribution
Whatever happens we need to take care and fight tomorrow. My parents (Rip) made it through poverty, the Depression, the dust bowl and ww2 and died from COVID , i kinda feel obligated to do whatever i can
posted by foonly at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Whatever happens we need to take care and fight tomorrow. My parents (Rip) made it through poverty, the Depression, the dust bowl and ww2 and died from COVID , i kinda feel obligated to do whatever i can
posted by foonly at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss.
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause. It's far more frustrating when someone who isn't so inclined didn't do what they can to stop the fascist.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause. It's far more frustrating when someone who isn't so inclined didn't do what they can to stop the fascist.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
I am a middle class, suburban, white guy, and even I don't think a Trump presidency will be good for me. Who the fuck thinks they'll benefit under the heel of his disgusting troupe of Nazis??
posted by wenestvedt at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
The time to pressure candidates and support other candidates is the primaries. You don't have a lot of leverage in a year when there's an incumbent president, because they typically don't have serious opponents in the primaries.
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Argh, I can't do this any more, I'm off to bed. I can't. I can't. This feels just like election night 2016. Night all.
posted by Rykey at 7:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by Rykey at 7:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I'm calling it too. Unless something drastically, radically, changes, Trump is going to win the election, and there is halfway decent chance he will win the popular vote.
posted by fortitude25 at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by fortitude25 at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I've said it before: Americans are hella smart, but America is the dumbest country on the planet.
posted by dobbs at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by dobbs at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Just expect the worst, that Trump wins. It'll soften the blow later.
posted by zardoz at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause.
I see your point, but what was all the Liz Cheney stuff about then?
posted by mittens at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I see your point, but what was all the Liz Cheney stuff about then?
posted by mittens at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Right now Pennsylvania really does look like a coin flip. Someone please talk me down.
Trump leads in GA, but those bomb threats in Democratic precincts meant that those sites stayed open later to make up time, so they are later reporting their votes - which means the good votes are coming last, which is why the AP hasn’t called it.
Similarly, Pennsylvania votes are going to be counted until 1am - especially in Democratic districts. Remember that Republican districts have fewer voters and so are easier to count.
posted by corb at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Trump leads in GA, but those bomb threats in Democratic precincts meant that those sites stayed open later to make up time, so they are later reporting their votes - which means the good votes are coming last, which is why the AP hasn’t called it.
Similarly, Pennsylvania votes are going to be counted until 1am - especially in Democratic districts. Remember that Republican districts have fewer voters and so are easier to count.
posted by corb at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Brian Williams just reported things are looking very good for Harris in PA.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
The Dem establishment is irredeemable.
posted by postagepaid at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by postagepaid at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
The only House races to flip so far have been in North Carolina, mostly due to the brutal gerrymandering by Republicans that's in play for the first time this election cycle. NC-14 might be a bit of a surprise flip, but it hadn't been polled publicly at all. NC-6 and NC-13 were both all but certain to flip to Republicans after the gerrymandering. There wasn't even a Democratic candidate in NC-6.
NC-1 was another district at risk for Democrats, results still pending there. The Democrat, Davis, leads by about 2 points, with 78% of the vote counted.
A little over half the House races have been called...basically the easy ones. Only about 20% of House races were even mildly competitive, about 60 to 65, only a smaller subset of those were strongly contested at all.
My count is 89 D, 137 R, 209 pending. Lots of D seats from the west coast will show up in the totals soon.
posted by gimonca at 7:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
NC-1 was another district at risk for Democrats, results still pending there. The Democrat, Davis, leads by about 2 points, with 78% of the vote counted.
A little over half the House races have been called...basically the easy ones. Only about 20% of House races were even mildly competitive, about 60 to 65, only a smaller subset of those were strongly contested at all.
My count is 89 D, 137 R, 209 pending. Lots of D seats from the west coast will show up in the totals soon.
posted by gimonca at 7:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Is it wrong to hope Trump will just die soon.
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
Is it wrong to hope Trump will just die soon.
JD Vance would be worse because he's actually coherent enough to execute a strategy.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
JD Vance would be worse because he's actually coherent enough to execute a strategy.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
The 'black nazi' in NC just lost his job.
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
Feels like we should be able to suss out how much Harris is underperforming other Dem candidates or ballot initiative if the protest is actually having an effect. I have friends who voted third party as a protest in Ohio but would have still voted for the anti-gerrymandering initiative.
(If the election were at all close there I'd be mad at them but it really looks like Ohio is swinging right for the foreseeable future.)
posted by mikesch at 8:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
(If the election were at all close there I'd be mad at them but it really looks like Ohio is swinging right for the foreseeable future.)
posted by mikesch at 8:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
how various Democratic Senate candidates are performing compared to Kamala:
Gallego (AZ): +7.5
Brown (OH): +7.0
Osborn (NE): +5.3
Allred (TX): +4.6
Baldwin (WI): +3.5
Kaine (VA): +3.5
Slotkin (MI): +2.7
Kim (NJ): +2.6
Casey (PA): +2.2
Mucarsel-Powell (FL): +0.3
posted by Iax at 8:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Gallego (AZ): +7.5
Brown (OH): +7.0
Osborn (NE): +5.3
Allred (TX): +4.6
Baldwin (WI): +3.5
Kaine (VA): +3.5
Slotkin (MI): +2.7
Kim (NJ): +2.6
Casey (PA): +2.2
Mucarsel-Powell (FL): +0.3
posted by Iax at 8:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I know I'm getting older because I think I'm going to bed now. But pretty sure we're looking down the barrel of another four years of Trump. I guess it's better that we got a four year reprieve? Minus, you know, a genocide.
posted by coffeecat at 8:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 8:05 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Getting some of those lost causes to stay home an getting Harris voters jazzed up enough to make a plan and actually show up to vote.
It's not a bell curve with a big fat chunk of moderates in the middle. Those people exist but voting is enough of a chore that they generally don't bother. So mostly you're dealing with the cranks more towards the tails who care enough to vote somewhere between most and all of the time.
So your biggest pool of potential votes are the folks that are going to vote blue but only if they're excited to vote or it looks like they can vote for a winner, voting is the cool thing, etc.
The GOP is typically different in that most people don't like their policies so it's most about getting dem voters to stay home and making it hard enough to vote that the just-enthusiastic-enough-to-vote-this-time but usually doesn't voter turns into the "aw fuck it, maybe at the mid-terms" non-voter.
But while I'm sure that's true to some extent I don't know if it's as true as it used to be since now all young men listen to Joe-obvious-dumb-ass-dip-shit Rogan. He knows fuck-all about lifting too you dumb assholes.*
Sorry I got worked up. But look at all the time you spent reading that where you were NOT obsessively refreshing results. Yeah I took a couple breaks to check too.
*This one bugs me because I'm a powerlifter but I'm in my 40's and started later in life so I really have to work at it. If those young assholes listened to someone that knew what the fuck they were talking about, they'd get so much stronger so much faster with WAY less injury. I wouldn't be able to make that kind of progress if I were on steroids. Youth has never been more wasted on the young.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
It's not a bell curve with a big fat chunk of moderates in the middle. Those people exist but voting is enough of a chore that they generally don't bother. So mostly you're dealing with the cranks more towards the tails who care enough to vote somewhere between most and all of the time.
So your biggest pool of potential votes are the folks that are going to vote blue but only if they're excited to vote or it looks like they can vote for a winner, voting is the cool thing, etc.
The GOP is typically different in that most people don't like their policies so it's most about getting dem voters to stay home and making it hard enough to vote that the just-enthusiastic-enough-to-vote-this-time but usually doesn't voter turns into the "aw fuck it, maybe at the mid-terms" non-voter.
But while I'm sure that's true to some extent I don't know if it's as true as it used to be since now all young men listen to Joe-obvious-dumb-ass-dip-shit Rogan. He knows fuck-all about lifting too you dumb assholes.*
Sorry I got worked up. But look at all the time you spent reading that where you were NOT obsessively refreshing results. Yeah I took a couple breaks to check too.
*This one bugs me because I'm a powerlifter but I'm in my 40's and started later in life so I really have to work at it. If those young assholes listened to someone that knew what the fuck they were talking about, they'd get so much stronger so much faster with WAY less injury. I wouldn't be able to make that kind of progress if I were on steroids. Youth has never been more wasted on the young.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Guys, I will pay any price: can anyone help me figure out how to watch the Jon Stewart election special live from my Roku? It is happening right now. I need this.
posted by corb at 8:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by corb at 8:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
is there any hope left?
posted by prefpara at 8:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 8:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I can’t do another four years of Trump. I simply can’t. I know this isn’t adding anything to the conversation but it’s all I can feel right now.
posted by turbowombat at 8:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
posted by turbowombat at 8:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
Voters in North America can’t get excited about women because they hate us. As soon as Harris was put forward, I thought, “maybe I’ll be surprised” but mostly “nope”. Sick and sad to be right (I think, probably).
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Trump leads GA by only about 130,000 votes right now and Dem polling places had bomb threats that extended the voting hours. And people are also still in line in other Dem places in GA, predicted to be there three hours past the time polls closed.
It's not over yet, y'all.
posted by cooker girl at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
It's not over yet, y'all.
posted by cooker girl at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
"Guys, I will pay any price: can anyone help me figure out how to watch the Jon Stewart election special live from my Roku?"
Per their website, you have to sign up for Paramount Plus on your Roku and then you can watch it.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024
Per their website, you have to sign up for Paramount Plus on your Roku and then you can watch it.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2024
Basically, what has happened is that Harris has lost all the states she was expected to lose. All right, North Carolina and Georgia might have flipped.
But if she wins the states where she has been a little ahead in the polls she will win. But she has to win all of them.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
But if she wins the states where she has been a little ahead in the polls she will win. But she has to win all of them.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
NBC reporting this'll go on for a while, so I'm turning in. Thanks to all of you for the thread & the updates -- couldn't imagine this day without you.
posted by mochapickle at 8:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 8:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
That is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona and the vote from Nebraska.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
it's gonna be Election Week again and with no Destiel bombshell to distract us :(
posted by Jacqueline at 8:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 8:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
I hope the democrats made the right calculation by maligning progressives.
posted by iamck at 8:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I hope the democrats made the right calculation by maligning progressives.
posted by iamck at 8:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Per the link posted, it won't be on Paramount+ until tomorrow.
posted by Celatone at 8:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Celatone at 8:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Who the fuck is Dan Osborn and will he play with the dems to keep the Senate out of GOP hands
posted by Slackermagee at 8:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Slackermagee at 8:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
"In addition to Comedy Central, it will also be broadcast live on sister channels MTV, Paramount Network, CMT, TV Land, Pop and Logo."
posted by Celatone at 8:15 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Celatone at 8:15 PM on November 5, 2024
So Kamala has to win 6 coin flips in a row? Yeah, odds aren't swell.
posted by Philipschall at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Philipschall at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I know this is freaking a lot of us out but as a big fan of election night and election night threads I'm grateful to have this.
posted by vrakatar at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Those maligned progressive do have SOME say in who they vote for too.
posted by VTX at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by VTX at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I think Harris takes PA. Looking at rough amounts of votes left, Trump is looking at another 100K from all PA counties. Flipadelphia is going to dunk 175k, if the current ratio holds, for Harris. Not counting any other county totals trickling in
posted by Slackermagee at 8:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 8:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Harris still has a good chance if the same day voting runs more for her than expected. It seems that the late open polls are with Harris voters.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Damn, this a hard night...
posted by Windopaene at 8:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 8:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
I have Paramount Plus, but they won’t show until tomorrow. How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore.
posted by corb at 8:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by corb at 8:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Fuck. North Carolina.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Sad news about Senator Sherrod Brown's race.
I remember protesting with him during one of Dubya's visits to Ohio. I think it was shortly after I was gerrymandered out of his house district, and I had moved out of Ohio before having a chance to vote for him in the senate.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I remember protesting with him during one of Dubya's visits to Ohio. I think it was shortly after I was gerrymandered out of his house district, and I had moved out of Ohio before having a chance to vote for him in the senate.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
"I have Parampunt Plus, but they won’t show until tomorrow. How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore."
Maybe YouTube TV? It's $73/month so it's like a cable TV package, I guess? You could do the free offer and then cancel.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024
Maybe YouTube TV? It's $73/month so it's like a cable TV package, I guess? You could do the free offer and then cancel.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
posted by iamck at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by iamck at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
I recognize this isn’t the most important problem but right now Jon Stewart seems like a comforting safety blanket and by god he got me through other awful elections he can get me through this one.
posted by corb at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by corb at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2024
> How does one even normal TV anymore
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV and that's how one watches Kraken games. For extra retro vibes, one makes one of one's children hold the antenna up by the window.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV and that's how one watches Kraken games. For extra retro vibes, one makes one of one's children hold the antenna up by the window.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Mannion has won New York-22. That's a House pickup for Democrats.
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
I didn't know that one person alone controlled the outcome in a 50-state election. Responsibility doesn't exist?. That's news to me.
posted by ichomp at 8:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
I didn't know that one person alone controlled the outcome in a 50-state election. Responsibility doesn't exist?. That's news to me.
posted by ichomp at 8:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
My SO has been insistent since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive nominee that Trump will win. Her reasoning was and still is based on her belief that misogyny will win every time.
Still, I'm not anywhere near ready to call it given the present numbers. I think there's still a good chance of Harris taking it with a PA/MI/AZ trifecta. What's really making it so close, if exit polls are to be believed, is the much reduced support from union households. If Harris got the same vote share there that Biden got, she'd have pretty comfortable margins in PA/MI/WI and we'd all be breathing a lot easier.
posted by wierdo at 8:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Still, I'm not anywhere near ready to call it given the present numbers. I think there's still a good chance of Harris taking it with a PA/MI/AZ trifecta. What's really making it so close, if exit polls are to be believed, is the much reduced support from union households. If Harris got the same vote share there that Biden got, she'd have pretty comfortable margins in PA/MI/WI and we'd all be breathing a lot easier.
posted by wierdo at 8:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
I have YouTube TV, I just looked and it says Comedy Central will be airing it at 11pm here in California.
posted by Ellen Alleyne at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Ellen Alleyne at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore.
Sign up for the YouTube TV trial. Cancel it when you've had enough election cable. It's on Comedy Central.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Sign up for the YouTube TV trial. Cancel it when you've had enough election cable. It's on Comedy Central.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
This is tough, y’all. My opinion is that regardless of who wins, 5e big stories are:
1) the economy - people feel it’s worse than under Trump, which is arguably true in some ways, and they blame Biden instead of COVID, supply chain, all that
2) the information environment- more and more people are getting their info from bad sources and no one’s doing anything to reign in the technofeudalism of the social media firms
3) immigration system is a mess and see #2.
4) a sprinkling of sexism and racism.
The Harris campaign and the zillion volunteers crushed it in an absurdly compressed 90 days. Gaza is a big deal to me, but I’m not convinced it is overall compared to the people above. I don’t buy the narrative that the Dems have somehow screwed up or dropped the ball. We live in a gerrymandered country that’s self- selecting to make itself dumber every year.
Also Sherrod Brown losing means the Rs almost certainly have the Senate, but the House is still in play. Can still end up with Harris + dem House. Knock wood .
posted by caviar2d2 at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
1) the economy - people feel it’s worse than under Trump, which is arguably true in some ways, and they blame Biden instead of COVID, supply chain, all that
2) the information environment- more and more people are getting their info from bad sources and no one’s doing anything to reign in the technofeudalism of the social media firms
3) immigration system is a mess and see #2.
4) a sprinkling of sexism and racism.
The Harris campaign and the zillion volunteers crushed it in an absurdly compressed 90 days. Gaza is a big deal to me, but I’m not convinced it is overall compared to the people above. I don’t buy the narrative that the Dems have somehow screwed up or dropped the ball. We live in a gerrymandered country that’s self- selecting to make itself dumber every year.
Also Sherrod Brown losing means the Rs almost certainly have the Senate, but the House is still in play. Can still end up with Harris + dem House. Knock wood .
posted by caviar2d2 at 8:29 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
MN is finally showing Harris after Twin Cities votes coming in.
posted by zeikka at 8:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by zeikka at 8:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
No, if Harris loses, it's on the voters, because the decision is down to the voters.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [75 favorites]
No, if Harris loses, it's on the voters, because the decision is down to the voters.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [75 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
Reminder? Hard disagree.
posted by kybix at 8:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Reminder? Hard disagree.
posted by kybix at 8:32 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
I can't watch this anymore. Praying I wake up in an alternate timeline where it was a blowout.
posted by lock robster at 8:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 8:34 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
This comes from some fantasy world where the opponent is approximately comparable and basically sane and competent.
In the world we live in this is a woeful sentiment.
posted by os tuberoes at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
This comes from some fantasy world where the opponent is approximately comparable and basically sane and competent.
In the world we live in this is a woeful sentiment.
posted by os tuberoes at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
MN is finally showing Harris after Twin Cities votes coming in.
Yeah. As a Minnesotan, I "knew" that would happen but I still couldn't shake the feeling that I was just telling myself that. Which my mind then obviously extended to the whole election.
Rolled back the spiral a bit for me there Minnesota (but man, boo hiss MN Trump voters).
posted by VTX at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Yeah. As a Minnesotan, I "knew" that would happen but I still couldn't shake the feeling that I was just telling myself that. Which my mind then obviously extended to the whole election.
Rolled back the spiral a bit for me there Minnesota (but man, boo hiss MN Trump voters).
posted by VTX at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
The hell are you talking about? She ran as good a campaign as could be run. If she loses, it’s because half the country decided a misogynist, completely unethical felon who has committed espionage and given away some of our most closely guarded secrets, someone who plans to use the military on political enemies, someone who is planning to crash the economy, someone who is going to commit atrocities against immigrants (including those here legally,) who is going to set back women’s rights 50 years, who is going to put a nut job in charge of the FDA, who is going to let Elon Musk slash the government, who is going to destroy Social Security and Medicare… half the country decided they were OK with that and in fact actively wants that. If that’s he case there wasn’t a fucking thing she could do.
posted by azpenguin at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [89 favorites]
The hell are you talking about? She ran as good a campaign as could be run. If she loses, it’s because half the country decided a misogynist, completely unethical felon who has committed espionage and given away some of our most closely guarded secrets, someone who plans to use the military on political enemies, someone who is planning to crash the economy, someone who is going to commit atrocities against immigrants (including those here legally,) who is going to set back women’s rights 50 years, who is going to put a nut job in charge of the FDA, who is going to let Elon Musk slash the government, who is going to destroy Social Security and Medicare… half the country decided they were OK with that and in fact actively wants that. If that’s he case there wasn’t a fucking thing she could do.
posted by azpenguin at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [89 favorites]
Please don't let the tens of millions of crazy motherfuckers that are somehow completely okay with another Trump presidency off the hook.
posted by notoriety public at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [43 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 8:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [43 favorites]
This is not Harris' fault at all. She ran a near perfect campaign.
It's our fault as citizens.
posted by Glibpaxman at 8:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
It's our fault as citizens.
posted by Glibpaxman at 8:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]
in unrelated news, Netanyahu fires Gallant.
timing.
posted by clavdivs at 8:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
timing.
posted by clavdivs at 8:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
near perfect campaigns win
posted by dis_integration at 8:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 8:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV ...
That used to work everywhere. With analog TV at the edges you'd get unstable noisy pictures and good sound, and now you get nothing ever. Digital didn't have to be designed to give perfect pictures or nothing: I think it was technically possible to make a standard that gracefully fell off, but they didn't. So now over-the-air TV doesn't exist in quite a lot of the US.
My plan for the Trump win is to radically tune out. I will never hear "the president tweeted" again.
posted by netowl at 8:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
That used to work everywhere. With analog TV at the edges you'd get unstable noisy pictures and good sound, and now you get nothing ever. Digital didn't have to be designed to give perfect pictures or nothing: I think it was technically possible to make a standard that gracefully fell off, but they didn't. So now over-the-air TV doesn't exist in quite a lot of the US.
My plan for the Trump win is to radically tune out. I will never hear "the president tweeted" again.
posted by netowl at 8:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Can someone tell me what they think would have happened, negatively, if Harris had reached out to the left? Just acknowledged them in some small way, besides running a ridiculous ad that had Jill Stein's face morphing into Donald Trump's? Probably more people knew Stein was running from seeing that ad than whatever ads Stein ran, if there were any (I have not seen one). I don't think anyone expected her to be like, "And fuck Netanyahu!!!" or anything, but she could have just. I don't know. Just some small acknowledgment of the concerns that kept these people from supporting her, who I believe wanted to support her. What would have happened? Would liberals have stayed home?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
I'm calling it a night y'all. Going to leave on this thought: in 2020 the morning after election day I started running a spreadsheet with the number of votes Biden would require to win from those still uncounted, and I posted another pessimistic comment on that thread later that day based on the way the numbers were looking at that time.
I'm hoping that tomorrow I'll either wake up and see that things have gone Harris' way over night, or that its still up in the air, and maybe I'll start doing some calculations like back in 2020.
Good luck to you all tonight. See you to celebrate or commiserate tomorrow.
posted by Reverend John at 8:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I'm hoping that tomorrow I'll either wake up and see that things have gone Harris' way over night, or that its still up in the air, and maybe I'll start doing some calculations like back in 2020.
Good luck to you all tonight. See you to celebrate or commiserate tomorrow.
posted by Reverend John at 8:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
North Carolina falls? Sigh.
I know we’re all looking for blame and grasping at straws. I just think at its core this country is deeply misogynistic and racist, and choosing between that and a patriarchal white man the latter will likely win out. Even if they are literally the worst and most flawed person possible.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
I know we’re all looking for blame and grasping at straws. I just think at its core this country is deeply misogynistic and racist, and choosing between that and a patriarchal white man the latter will likely win out. Even if they are literally the worst and most flawed person possible.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
FML, tomorrow I guess I'll be asking all the Trump voters on my socials to raise their hands so I can never, ever talk to them again. I can't have that kind of hate in my life.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 8:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Given the states called already, which groupings does Harris need to win?
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
kfb, i'm sorry but Harris ran a near perfect campaign and by near perfect I mean solidly in step with Biden when it comes to Gaza
Which is near perfect
And has zero bearing on the election results
And this is the voters' fault
posted by ginger.beef at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Which is near perfect
And has zero bearing on the election results
And this is the voters' fault
posted by ginger.beef at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
In Washington State, Maria Cantwell has beaten Dr Raul Garcia, a man who legally changed his first name to "Dr" so he would show up that way on the ballot.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
When asked if people were better off now than four years ago, she didn't mention that four years ago we were putting bodies in freezer trucks because the morgues were full. She didn't mention that we had lost millions of jobs. She never reminded people of how awful it was four years ago, in 2020, and neither did anyone else on the Democratic side, which frustrated me to no end. So, no, I personally don't think Kamala Harris ran a "near perfect" campaign. That said, I think a combination of misogyny, prices being high, and a relentless anti-Democratic media had more to do with her loss than her campaign messaging.
But man, how hard would it have been to mention how bad it was four years ago...
posted by dirigibleman at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
But man, how hard would it have been to mention how bad it was four years ago...
posted by dirigibleman at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
I feel like I might as well give in for the night, but I am too keyed up to sleep.
posted by NotLost at 8:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I feel like I might as well give in for the night, but I am too keyed up to sleep.
posted by NotLost at 8:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
My biggest problem with NC being a headliner right now is that it was on 538 a 59-41 Trump state casted as a swing. Anecdotally, I know NC as a state where more conservative folks moved to from Michigan. Shocker all around
posted by JoeXIII007 at 8:46 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by JoeXIII007 at 8:46 PM on November 5, 2024
"Given the states called already, which ones does Harris need to win?"
All of the remaining swing states except Nevada. If she loses another swing state with 8+ electoral votes, she's done.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
All of the remaining swing states except Nevada. If she loses another swing state with 8+ electoral votes, she's done.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
Yes.
posted by NotLost at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Yes.
posted by NotLost at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins! This is what I'm talking about, go team!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins! This is what I'm talking about, go team!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Harris underperformed Dem Senators in every swing state.
posted by hermanubis at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by hermanubis at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
270toWin is updating their projections as states are called and votes are partially counted, so it's a good way to keep an eye on what's still possible:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/
posted by Jacqueline at 8:48 PM on November 5, 2024
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/
posted by Jacqueline at 8:48 PM on November 5, 2024
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
Yes! Especially if it's good news.
I think that if you ran for some small office on a patriotic whim and win, you with the thread and become king of metafilter.
posted by VTX at 8:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Yes! Especially if it's good news.
I think that if you ran for some small office on a patriotic whim and win, you with the thread and become king of metafilter.
posted by VTX at 8:49 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
so happy to see that caving to republicans' anti-trans bigotry helped allred and brown win their senate races
oh. they didn't? i see...
posted by i used to be someone else at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
oh. they didn't? i see...
posted by i used to be someone else at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Politico swing state buttons. Flip switches on swing states and see how it changes the result.
posted by ryanrs at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
Yep, I thought this after Hillary, modulo exceptional circumstances. Now that we've had exceptional circumstances with what appears to be the same outcome, I doubt any of us see it in again in our lifetimes.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Yep, I thought this after Hillary, modulo exceptional circumstances. Now that we've had exceptional circumstances with what appears to be the same outcome, I doubt any of us see it in again in our lifetimes.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
That's a strange way to say never.
I mean that literally.
posted by aramaic at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
That's a strange way to say never.
I mean that literally.
posted by aramaic at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins!
Even Putin, who is effectively about as close to absolute dictator as you can get in a country as big as Russia, is unwilling to abandon the trappings of legitimacy. Of course we're going to have elections, just like Russia did in March.
posted by tclark at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Even Putin, who is effectively about as close to absolute dictator as you can get in a country as big as Russia, is unwilling to abandon the trappings of legitimacy. Of course we're going to have elections, just like Russia did in March.
posted by tclark at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
My heart is breaking for Ukraine. They’re going to be fed to the dogs.
posted by argybarg at 8:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [47 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 8:53 PM on November 5, 2024 [47 favorites]
Been echoing in my head for 8 years.
posted by phunniemee at 8:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by phunniemee at 8:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
My heart is breaking for Ukraine. They’re going to be fed to the dogs.
Honey, the whole fucking world is getting fed to the dogs now.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [52 favorites]
Honey, the whole fucking world is getting fed to the dogs now.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [52 favorites]
Deep red Missouri votes to repeal near-total abortion ban and codify abortion until viability into the state constitution.
56.4% voted trump over kamala, 53.9% voted to overturn abortion ban
posted by Iax at 8:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
56.4% voted trump over kamala, 53.9% voted to overturn abortion ban
posted by Iax at 8:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
"we bought this ad to give you 30 seconds of silence. yep, just silence."
-calm
posted by clavdivs at 8:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
-calm
posted by clavdivs at 8:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
At least there’s some good down-ballot news here in Seattle. Right-wing hedge fund millionaire Brian Heywood funded statewide initiatives to repeal our carbon tax and capital gains tax. Both of those initiatives have been defeated. (Results have not yet been called for two other Heywood-sponsored initiatives that were also on the ballot.)
Democrat Bob Ferguson won the WA governor's race, and progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck looks to have a decent lead over appointed incumbent Tanya Woo in the Seattle City Council race. And the Seattle transportation levy should pass.
posted by mbrubeck at 8:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Democrat Bob Ferguson won the WA governor's race, and progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck looks to have a decent lead over appointed incumbent Tanya Woo in the Seattle City Council race. And the Seattle transportation levy should pass.
posted by mbrubeck at 8:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
Yes. But the most direct and comprehensive and literal slaughter will be of the Ukrainian people.
posted by argybarg at 8:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 8:57 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I can’t believe this is really happening.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
I'm numb and feeling a mix of optimism and depression.
As a Deaf person who has stage 4 cancer and a real possibility of losing my job if Trump is confirmed/voted in, I just don't know what to say. How can someone who says such awful and cruel things, threaten people, even with death, and be so cruel, win (or at least come close to)? If he wins, this can be a really bad impact on my life. Treatments, job-searching (already super hard for Deaf people), and facing cruelty if people choose to be openly cruel because of my appearance.
I just don't get it. This could affect my life in a very awful way. The worst feeling is, I feel like nobody really cares. It seems like cruelty and hate is winning now, and we have majorly regressed since the 2000s. Even Bush was better than this. I am trying to understand what happened to the world, to people.
With that said, I'm hoping we'll still get the swing states we need to win this. Even so, there's a lot of work and fixing that needs to be done in America, a lot of soul-searching and deprogramming.
My heart is broken. I might or might not wake up to good news tomorrow, but as someone who works hard bettering myself everyday and being kind despite the world we live in, and is fighting cancer, this is really deep and sad and awful/depressing to see. I don't want to be in a world that is filled with hate and evil. I will continue to fight and do what I can to live and beat my cancer if possible, but I'm just tired. I'm sad. I'm disappointed.
Pardon the messy rant, but I had to let it out.
posted by dubious_dude at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [76 favorites]
As a Deaf person who has stage 4 cancer and a real possibility of losing my job if Trump is confirmed/voted in, I just don't know what to say. How can someone who says such awful and cruel things, threaten people, even with death, and be so cruel, win (or at least come close to)? If he wins, this can be a really bad impact on my life. Treatments, job-searching (already super hard for Deaf people), and facing cruelty if people choose to be openly cruel because of my appearance.
I just don't get it. This could affect my life in a very awful way. The worst feeling is, I feel like nobody really cares. It seems like cruelty and hate is winning now, and we have majorly regressed since the 2000s. Even Bush was better than this. I am trying to understand what happened to the world, to people.
With that said, I'm hoping we'll still get the swing states we need to win this. Even so, there's a lot of work and fixing that needs to be done in America, a lot of soul-searching and deprogramming.
My heart is broken. I might or might not wake up to good news tomorrow, but as someone who works hard bettering myself everyday and being kind despite the world we live in, and is fighting cancer, this is really deep and sad and awful/depressing to see. I don't want to be in a world that is filled with hate and evil. I will continue to fight and do what I can to live and beat my cancer if possible, but I'm just tired. I'm sad. I'm disappointed.
Pardon the messy rant, but I had to let it out.
posted by dubious_dude at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [76 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands.... What the hell are you doing USA ? You're not seriously voting for that knucklehead again ?
posted by Pendragon at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Can someone tell me what they think would have happened, negatively, if Harris had reached out to the left?
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
posted by azpenguin at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
posted by azpenguin at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [33 favorites]
So Kamala has to win 6 coin flips in a row? Yeah, odds aren't swell.
It's not really 6 individual coin flips though is it? If we find out that one of the coins is weighted 53% for Harris, then it's more likely the rest are weighted that way too.
But it's late and I'm not a stats nerd and I'm about out of nerd for today regardless.
posted by VTX at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
It's not really 6 individual coin flips though is it? If we find out that one of the coins is weighted 53% for Harris, then it's more likely the rest are weighted that way too.
But it's late and I'm not a stats nerd and I'm about out of nerd for today regardless.
posted by VTX at 8:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
"At least there’s some good down-ballot news here in Seattle."
My husband is new to Seattle and Washington state and found the initiatives confusing, so I got to introduce him to the joy that is The Stranger's election guide. I did a dramatic reading and my husband said he didn't know that newspaper endorsements could have that many swears in them.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
My husband is new to Seattle and Washington state and found the initiatives confusing, so I got to introduce him to the joy that is The Stranger's election guide. I did a dramatic reading and my husband said he didn't know that newspaper endorsements could have that many swears in them.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Looks a lot like cops are getting their Licenses to Kill back. Be careful out there.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I think we can pull this off, but still feeing sick to my stomach that it is even close.
posted by ichomp at 9:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:05 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:05 PM on November 5, 2024
I don't think it's being pulled off, and I don't think anyone should blame Palestinian affinity groups for the loss.
posted by postagepaid at 9:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by postagepaid at 9:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
White penises have always fared well.
posted by phunniemee at 9:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
White penises have always fared well.
posted by phunniemee at 9:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [21 favorites]
I think a real question is whether Harris is going to give up or not if things go badly. Will she fight it out in places where things look weird or where there was funny business, or wait for absentee ballots, which do tend to be strongly Democratic, to come in?
posted by corb at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by corb at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Ceasefire polled well. Did the Cheney family?
There was plenty of room to run to Biden's left on Gaza and gain votes. Too early to tell what really happened, but in addition to being immoral and unjust, the general Democratic position on the genocide was not prudent. Plenty of people on here and elsewhere pointed that out. Whatever happens, appealing to moderate Republicans did not work.
posted by Hume at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
There was plenty of room to run to Biden's left on Gaza and gain votes. Too early to tell what really happened, but in addition to being immoral and unjust, the general Democratic position on the genocide was not prudent. Plenty of people on here and elsewhere pointed that out. Whatever happens, appealing to moderate Republicans did not work.
posted by Hume at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted. Absolutely enough with the interpersonal stuff. This is not a time for ‘settling scores’. Maybe let’s try to leave each other relatively intact, looks like we may need each other enough in the time ahead.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
Sure... I have a bridge to sell...
posted by Pendragon at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Sure... I have a bridge to sell...
posted by Pendragon at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Colorado defeated jungle primaries, which is so far the only good news I've seen tonight. Courage.
posted by cyndigo at 9:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by cyndigo at 9:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
The posters here sure are quick to blame people for not voting a women, especially the sexism of the hispanic voters. But look at Mexico, they just elected a woman president. Maybe USA should try running one that doesn't suck and more people actually believe in?
posted by Iax at 9:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Iax at 9:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Joe Biden spells Paul Bunyan if you rearrange the letters
and change some letters
think on that
posted by ginger.beef at 9:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
and change some letters
think on that
posted by ginger.beef at 9:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
I don’t think Gaza was salient to any except a small slice of voters.
It seems Harris lost ground with non-white voters. That’s a sobering thought. I think sexism won out here.
posted by argybarg at 9:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
It seems Harris lost ground with non-white voters. That’s a sobering thought. I think sexism won out here.
posted by argybarg at 9:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [29 favorites]
i'm sorry but Harris ran a near perfect campaign
Nah, Harris ran the campaign that every Democratic candidate has run since the party got high on its own supply under Clinton. The pattern is to abjure any progressive agenda in favor of small technocratic changes which pose little threat to the status quo while banking on the fact that Republicans will be so shitty that it will alienate enough people to secure a Dem win. It's an essentially static, small C conservative political position which promises that nothing will change in any major way, but that small improvements will be made on the margins.
That works when people feel like the world is generally doing OK, which both increases favor towards the status quo and blunts oppositional desire for change. In the face of a cultish, non-reality based campaign by Republican machine which thrives on portraying the world in crisis though? Calling the Democratic Party's tactics insipid is underselling it.
Harris spent her few months as the candidate running the above campaign of small changes to the status quo with a sprinkling of pointing out how much of a threat Trump is to our democracy and reiterating that he is responsible for the loss of abortion rights. The problem is that large parts of the electorate are not, and have never been, sold on Trump being an existential threat to the USA. After all, we made it through one term right? Memories of political chaos, economic collapse, and a million COVID deaths fade away so quickly.
Abortion rights are another non-starter, at least the way the Dems have run the campaign. It is a truth that everyone thinks their abortion is the only moral one, but the more important point is that no one thinks they are going to need an abortion. Abortions happen to "other people," so hammering home that point without explicitly and loudly tying it to the larger GOP strategy of rolling back rights for women is a losing strategy.
But really, the problem the Harris campaign had is the problem that the Democratic party has in general: they have no ideas and what ideas they have they shunt off to the side in embarrassment. The Dem party learned that they can win elections by tacking to the right to basically be a less insane version of the GOP, but in doing so they ceded political inertia to the GOP. The American Left has an amazing platform of winning ideas, but the Democratic party is committed to a strategy of trying to contort itself to appeal to some idealized Rust Belt ex-steel mill worker who says he's independent, but hasn't voted D since 1992.
The end result is a party that is entirely reactive. I think it was Karl Rove who, during Dubya's reign, remarked that the GOP was in the reality-making business, acknowledging that political parties can create the field in which they play. Rove also emphasized attack the opponent on their strengths. The GOP has, for decades, been the party setting the agenda for US politics. That is not going to change until the Democrats stop playing defense and start creating a reality more favorable to them. Harris tacking to an imaginary and no longer extant middle is not going to change that equation.
If this sounds dirge-like for Harris, it's because I am having flashbacks to 2016. See you all in 2024.
posted by Panjandrum at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [71 favorites]
Nah, Harris ran the campaign that every Democratic candidate has run since the party got high on its own supply under Clinton. The pattern is to abjure any progressive agenda in favor of small technocratic changes which pose little threat to the status quo while banking on the fact that Republicans will be so shitty that it will alienate enough people to secure a Dem win. It's an essentially static, small C conservative political position which promises that nothing will change in any major way, but that small improvements will be made on the margins.
That works when people feel like the world is generally doing OK, which both increases favor towards the status quo and blunts oppositional desire for change. In the face of a cultish, non-reality based campaign by Republican machine which thrives on portraying the world in crisis though? Calling the Democratic Party's tactics insipid is underselling it.
Harris spent her few months as the candidate running the above campaign of small changes to the status quo with a sprinkling of pointing out how much of a threat Trump is to our democracy and reiterating that he is responsible for the loss of abortion rights. The problem is that large parts of the electorate are not, and have never been, sold on Trump being an existential threat to the USA. After all, we made it through one term right? Memories of political chaos, economic collapse, and a million COVID deaths fade away so quickly.
Abortion rights are another non-starter, at least the way the Dems have run the campaign. It is a truth that everyone thinks their abortion is the only moral one, but the more important point is that no one thinks they are going to need an abortion. Abortions happen to "other people," so hammering home that point without explicitly and loudly tying it to the larger GOP strategy of rolling back rights for women is a losing strategy.
But really, the problem the Harris campaign had is the problem that the Democratic party has in general: they have no ideas and what ideas they have they shunt off to the side in embarrassment. The Dem party learned that they can win elections by tacking to the right to basically be a less insane version of the GOP, but in doing so they ceded political inertia to the GOP. The American Left has an amazing platform of winning ideas, but the Democratic party is committed to a strategy of trying to contort itself to appeal to some idealized Rust Belt ex-steel mill worker who says he's independent, but hasn't voted D since 1992.
The end result is a party that is entirely reactive. I think it was Karl Rove who, during Dubya's reign, remarked that the GOP was in the reality-making business, acknowledging that political parties can create the field in which they play. Rove also emphasized attack the opponent on their strengths. The GOP has, for decades, been the party setting the agenda for US politics. That is not going to change until the Democrats stop playing defense and start creating a reality more favorable to them. Harris tacking to an imaginary and no longer extant middle is not going to change that equation.
If this sounds dirge-like for Harris, it's because I am having flashbacks to 2016. See you all in 2024.
posted by Panjandrum at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [71 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
I mean, I'm gonna be real. She didn't try real hard. Honestly, just "vote for me OR go fuck yourself" would have been a better look than "vote for me AND go fuck yourself." She acknowledged that she needed those votes, and then...said you were an asshole if you didn't vote for her. No concessions, no attempt to find common ground -- of which, frankly, there is a hell of a lot.
I don't know, right now, if she will win or lose. But I am saying this vote scolding shit straight up does not work. Again, no one has to like that, no one has to change the desire they have in their heart to punch a hippie for whatever reason, but just finally really understand that this scolding approach obviously does not work, no matter how good it feels to scold people! And when you do things that do not work, you do not win elections.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
I mean, I'm gonna be real. She didn't try real hard. Honestly, just "vote for me OR go fuck yourself" would have been a better look than "vote for me AND go fuck yourself." She acknowledged that she needed those votes, and then...said you were an asshole if you didn't vote for her. No concessions, no attempt to find common ground -- of which, frankly, there is a hell of a lot.
I don't know, right now, if she will win or lose. But I am saying this vote scolding shit straight up does not work. Again, no one has to like that, no one has to change the desire they have in their heart to punch a hippie for whatever reason, but just finally really understand that this scolding approach obviously does not work, no matter how good it feels to scold people! And when you do things that do not work, you do not win elections.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
Y'know, I'm old enough to remember when the "principled leftists" grudgingly allowed themselves to get a little hopeful when the Dems finally acted like they wanted to win the election and dropped Biden. Lots of folks who wouldn't have been caught dead saying anything positive about her in 2020 adding coconut emojis to their display names; grudging, bewildered optimism all around. Then of course the Harris campaign went out its way to burn all that goodwill and then some.
Literally all she had to do was denounce an ongoing genocide. The bar was on the floor. But yeah, go ahead and blame the voters instead of the person who didn't give them something to vote for.
posted by fifthrider at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
Y'know, I'm old enough to remember when the "principled leftists" grudgingly allowed themselves to get a little hopeful when the Dems finally acted like they wanted to win the election and dropped Biden. Lots of folks who wouldn't have been caught dead saying anything positive about her in 2020 adding coconut emojis to their display names; grudging, bewildered optimism all around. Then of course the Harris campaign went out its way to burn all that goodwill and then some.
Literally all she had to do was denounce an ongoing genocide. The bar was on the floor. But yeah, go ahead and blame the voters instead of the person who didn't give them something to vote for.
posted by fifthrider at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [27 favorites]
I don’t think Gaza was salient to any except a small slice of voters.
How big a slice of voters did Biden win by in 2020?
posted by Iax at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
Not after that debate performance. Still such a bummer.
posted by getawaysticks at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
Not after that debate performance. Still such a bummer.
posted by getawaysticks at 9:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
dubious_dude, of all the comments in this thread, yours is by far my favorite. Thank you for expressing it so eloquently, and I hope that you know you are not alone in these feelings. I don't share your life experience, but it speaks deeply to me. Please accept the virtual hug from this internet stranger.
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I’m sitting in a high school gym waiting for results. I’ve worked with these candidates for the last few months, they’re so good, but it’s going to be close. I will be devastated if Kamala Harris loses the Electoral College and the election. But it will be personal if my local candidates don’t prevail. The poll staff are excellent, turnout was enormous, but …
posted by theora55 at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by theora55 at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I'm going to put my wife in bed, and maybe tap out. I'm hopeful but if I tap out and wake up tomorrow to a dystopian nightmare, I'll fight. Not with guns or weapons, with action and kindness and empathic passive resistance.
posted by vrakatar at 9:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 9:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
Arizona looks very positive for Harris since almost all of the remaining votes are in Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson).
Michigan looks okayish due so much still outstanding in Wayne County and how much her margins have trended.
Wisconsin looks less positive but a win in Arizona is an effective trade for Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania will really come down to Philly same day and remaining mail votes.
Nevada is largely pointless unfortunately (or maybe fortunately)
Ultimately I think the key driver was economic hardships and declining standards of living in large areas of the US. That is one of the key reasons why there seems to be such a massive gender gap in terms of voting preference and why there is some indication of a late trend among Gen-Z voters.
Empty promises and lots of scapegoating of minorities/women is apparently a compelling formula for a lot of Americans and until there is a way to de-radicalize gen x, millenial and I guess Gen-Z male voters the Republican party will continue to try to use it to drive voters to the polls.
posted by vuron at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Michigan looks okayish due so much still outstanding in Wayne County and how much her margins have trended.
Wisconsin looks less positive but a win in Arizona is an effective trade for Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania will really come down to Philly same day and remaining mail votes.
Nevada is largely pointless unfortunately (or maybe fortunately)
Ultimately I think the key driver was economic hardships and declining standards of living in large areas of the US. That is one of the key reasons why there seems to be such a massive gender gap in terms of voting preference and why there is some indication of a late trend among Gen-Z voters.
Empty promises and lots of scapegoating of minorities/women is apparently a compelling formula for a lot of Americans and until there is a way to de-radicalize gen x, millenial and I guess Gen-Z male voters the Republican party will continue to try to use it to drive voters to the polls.
posted by vuron at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
I don't think we're going to know tonight. It's gonna come down to the mail-in votes in the swing states.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [11 favorites]
Georgia and NC just flipped back to toss-up!
Up here in Toronto it was 25 degrees today.
posted by sixswitch at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Up here in Toronto it was 25 degrees today.
posted by sixswitch at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I don’t think this is a nail-biter. Current NYT projections:
Michigan: Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin: Trump +1.8
I think it’s 2016 again.
posted by argybarg at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Michigan: Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin: Trump +1.8
I think it’s 2016 again.
posted by argybarg at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Georgia and NC just flipped back to toss-up!
Source?
posted by NotLost at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Source?
posted by NotLost at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Isn't NYT missing a ton of people owing to a strike? I don't even care how accurate their election reporting is, surely there are better sources for coverage
posted by ginger.beef at 9:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 9:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I think NYT just glitched for a second, because I refreshed the page and suddenly both candidates were in the 100s again. I don't know if that's what sixswitch saw, but it's back to how it was before.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2024
It's devastating that the Biden-Harris administration was the most progressive and competent of my lifetime, and not only do Americans not recognize it, they punish it.
posted by ichomp at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [50 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [50 favorites]
Like, there might not be another administration as progressive as Biden-Harris in my lifetime.
posted by ichomp at 9:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
270towin, shared above
posted by sixswitch at 9:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by sixswitch at 9:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Cock.
posted by Wordshore at 9:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 9:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other. How does that gel with absentee ballots etc? Is there a reason to do this other than in the case of an embarrassingly obvious landslide?
posted by Iteki at 9:35 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Iteki at 9:35 PM on November 5, 2024
At the end of the day it appears white resentment outside of highly educated and well-compensated communities continues to drive a lot of Americans into the arms of tyranny. Tyrants offer easy scapegoats and easy solutions and I guess if you are a White Male who is seeing your job prospects and ability to achieve your dreams of marriage/career/retirement fail to materialize you are willing to vote for someone who promises pure freaking magic as the solution.
The persistent gaps in achievement by recent cohorts of men in the US is driving a lot of resentment and that's directed at all sort of groups such as women/PoC/immigrants as they see a lot of what their parents and grandparents were able to achieve as being out of reach. Success in Higher Education, getting solid careers, starting business, etc is something they can't achieve and they increasingly seem resentful of women who are increasingly selecting against having conservative partners so they see their ability to achieve some sort of idealized future as being denied to them.
Trump has successfully weaponized that resentment and there are a bunch of people backing him who feel like this is a way to lock in even more institutionalized power for oligarchs even if it will likely result in a significant recession by year 3 or 4 of a presumptive second Trump presidency.
posted by vuron at 9:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
The persistent gaps in achievement by recent cohorts of men in the US is driving a lot of resentment and that's directed at all sort of groups such as women/PoC/immigrants as they see a lot of what their parents and grandparents were able to achieve as being out of reach. Success in Higher Education, getting solid careers, starting business, etc is something they can't achieve and they increasingly seem resentful of women who are increasingly selecting against having conservative partners so they see their ability to achieve some sort of idealized future as being denied to them.
Trump has successfully weaponized that resentment and there are a bunch of people backing him who feel like this is a way to lock in even more institutionalized power for oligarchs even if it will likely result in a significant recession by year 3 or 4 of a presumptive second Trump presidency.
posted by vuron at 9:36 PM on November 5, 2024 [28 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other.
Trump didn't even concede in 2020, what makes you think he would now ?
posted by Pendragon at 9:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Trump didn't even concede in 2020, what makes you think he would now ?
posted by Pendragon at 9:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Like, there might not be another administration as progressive as Biden-Harris in my lifetime.
There might not be another Dem administration in my lifetime.
posted by NotLost at 9:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
There might not be another Dem administration in my lifetime.
posted by NotLost at 9:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
My count of House races at this moment:
147 D, 169 R, 119 uncalled
Still a lot of California uncalled races. A lot of northeast and midwestern seats uncalled. No returns in yet for Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii. People are still voting in parts of Alaska?
Almost no flips. North Carolina is messed up due to gerrymandering, Democrats probably have a net loss of 3 there. Alabama and Louisiana will probably come through with two gains for Democrats through court-ordered redistricting, at the moment both candidates are leading. I've heard that New York-22 has flipped to Democrats.
Among remaining seats, here are potential ones to watch:
Current Democratic seats, Democrat is leading, close race:
Colorado-8
New Mexico-2
Ohio-9
Texas-34
Virginia-7
Washington-3
Current Republican seats, Democrat is leading, potential flip:
Arizona-1
Arizona-6
California-13
California-27
California-41
California-45
Nebraska-2
New York-4
New York-19
Oregon-5
Pennsylvania-10
Current Democratic seats, Republican is leading, potential flip:
Maine-2
Maryland-6
Michigan-7
Michigan-8
Pennsylvania-7
Current Republican seats, Republican is leading, close race:
California-22
California-40
Iowa-1
Michigan-10
New York-17
Wisconsin-3
Some of these are very close and could easily change.
Note that California, and possibly Arizona, races could take a long time to finalize results.
posted by gimonca at 9:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
147 D, 169 R, 119 uncalled
Still a lot of California uncalled races. A lot of northeast and midwestern seats uncalled. No returns in yet for Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii. People are still voting in parts of Alaska?
Almost no flips. North Carolina is messed up due to gerrymandering, Democrats probably have a net loss of 3 there. Alabama and Louisiana will probably come through with two gains for Democrats through court-ordered redistricting, at the moment both candidates are leading. I've heard that New York-22 has flipped to Democrats.
Among remaining seats, here are potential ones to watch:
Current Democratic seats, Democrat is leading, close race:
Colorado-8
New Mexico-2
Ohio-9
Texas-34
Virginia-7
Washington-3
Current Republican seats, Democrat is leading, potential flip:
Arizona-1
Arizona-6
California-13
California-27
California-41
California-45
Nebraska-2
New York-4
New York-19
Oregon-5
Pennsylvania-10
Current Democratic seats, Republican is leading, potential flip:
Maine-2
Maryland-6
Michigan-7
Michigan-8
Pennsylvania-7
Current Republican seats, Republican is leading, close race:
California-22
California-40
Iowa-1
Michigan-10
New York-17
Wisconsin-3
Some of these are very close and could easily change.
Note that California, and possibly Arizona, races could take a long time to finalize results.
posted by gimonca at 9:38 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other.
That's usually done when the result is clear.
posted by NotLost at 9:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
That's usually done when the result is clear.
posted by NotLost at 9:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
(Is it too late to start the steal?)
posted by nobody at 9:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by nobody at 9:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
One tiny bit of good from all this is that hopefully we will never have to hear from Allan Lichtman again.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Every incumbent party around the world when the post-pandemic inflation began has lost, regardless of ideology and regardless of where inflation was at the moment of the election.
posted by argybarg at 9:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 9:46 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands.... What the hell are you doing USA ? You're not seriously voting for that knucklehead again ?
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this. Those of us on the left--and even in the center--have spend the last decade as puzzled and alarmed by Donald Trump and his fascism as much as the most progressive Western European alive, so please stop with the "why I never..." comments about how fucked up America is. We know. We live here. And it's not like fascists are alien to Europe, either, so the pearl clutching doesn't help.
posted by zardoz at 9:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [50 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this. Those of us on the left--and even in the center--have spend the last decade as puzzled and alarmed by Donald Trump and his fascism as much as the most progressive Western European alive, so please stop with the "why I never..." comments about how fucked up America is. We know. We live here. And it's not like fascists are alien to Europe, either, so the pearl clutching doesn't help.
posted by zardoz at 9:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [50 favorites]
Nah, I think non-U.S. Americans are allowed to be as idiotic as the most idiotic U.S. Americans in this thread.
posted by ipsative at 9:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by ipsative at 9:52 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans
iS tHiS sOmEtHiNg i'D hAvE tO pAy fOr hEaLtHcArE tO uNdErStAnD
posted by phunniemee at 9:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
iS tHiS sOmEtHiNg i'D hAvE tO pAy fOr hEaLtHcArE tO uNdErStAnD
posted by phunniemee at 9:56 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
I remember thinking at the time, "How could the Brits vote for Brexit?" Now I know.... :(. I guess the billionaires and the bigots are happy. Maybe I will wake up tomorrow and it was all a bad dream.
posted by caddis at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by caddis at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Harris left without speaking. It's over.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Mod note: Deleted an aside about the 270towin maps at the original poster’s request, as they made an honest mistake.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
So there’s still a lot of votes in PA that won’t be counted til tmw…is there any chance TFG’s lead is enough tonight they can call the state? God I hope not.
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024
American politics affects the rest of the world in disproportionate ways (the treatment of Muslims trying to travel or immigrate ANYWHERE after 9/11 still holds true 20+ years on) so we've got just as much right to be appalled as anyone else.
posted by creatrixtiara at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by creatrixtiara at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
There's no way I'll be able to sleep tonight so I'm just binging call the midwife and hoping the lord takes me to pass out.
posted by phunniemee at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by phunniemee at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
NC hasn't been called but unless there are a ton of ballots from a democratic stronghold somewhere I can't see it making a difference.
There might be be enough votes left in Atlanta to make up the difference but without having precinct level reporting data to compare to previous years I don't know if anyone can reasonably expect Harris to bridge the 127k difference unless the margins on remaining ballots are extremely lopsided.
I'm not super hopefully about Wisconsin unless there is some indication that the remaining votes from Green Bay and the conservative Milwaukee burbs will somehow be negated by remaining Milwaukee and Madison votes.
Wisconsin just seems to continue to perpetually struggle with brain drain. Smart kids go to Madison, sort of vote while they are there and then get the fuck out for greener pastures. Until recent grads have more incentive to stay in the state I think they will continue to struggle since the growth of socially moderate highly educated professionals that form the backbone of a lot of coastal state economies and help drive up vote totals just doesn't seem to happen.
Make no mistake crazy tariffs wouldn't solve any of those issues but apparently people seem to buy into the ideas that protectionism and "strong borders" would somehow reverse 40-50 years of offshoring
posted by vuron at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
There might be be enough votes left in Atlanta to make up the difference but without having precinct level reporting data to compare to previous years I don't know if anyone can reasonably expect Harris to bridge the 127k difference unless the margins on remaining ballots are extremely lopsided.
I'm not super hopefully about Wisconsin unless there is some indication that the remaining votes from Green Bay and the conservative Milwaukee burbs will somehow be negated by remaining Milwaukee and Madison votes.
Wisconsin just seems to continue to perpetually struggle with brain drain. Smart kids go to Madison, sort of vote while they are there and then get the fuck out for greener pastures. Until recent grads have more incentive to stay in the state I think they will continue to struggle since the growth of socially moderate highly educated professionals that form the backbone of a lot of coastal state economies and help drive up vote totals just doesn't seem to happen.
Make no mistake crazy tariffs wouldn't solve any of those issues but apparently people seem to buy into the ideas that protectionism and "strong borders" would somehow reverse 40-50 years of offshoring
posted by vuron at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
This election was about inflation and immigration. A majority of voters hated inflation and they didn’t like the surge in border crossings, and they blamed Biden for both.
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this. It only wound up as close as it did because Trump is feeble and unpleasant — but enough voters either like his style or are willing to overlook it.
posted by argybarg at 10:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this. It only wound up as close as it did because Trump is feeble and unpleasant — but enough voters either like his style or are willing to overlook it.
posted by argybarg at 10:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this.
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
posted by Pendragon at 10:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
posted by Pendragon at 10:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.
Fortunately the people I was hoping would win the state-level elections have mostly won, and three out of four dumb initiatives have lost (and the fourth will probably be thrown out).
posted by The corpse in the library at 10:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Fortunately the people I was hoping would win the state-level elections have mostly won, and three out of four dumb initiatives have lost (and the fourth will probably be thrown out).
posted by The corpse in the library at 10:06 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this.
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right? I think most everyone in this space agrees that fascism is bad and did their best to disavow it. When non-Americans pop in to this space it feels smug and somewhat like rubbing salt into a wound. WE KNOW.
posted by knotty knots at 10:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right? I think most everyone in this space agrees that fascism is bad and did their best to disavow it. When non-Americans pop in to this space it feels smug and somewhat like rubbing salt into a wound. WE KNOW.
posted by knotty knots at 10:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [32 favorites]
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this.
This is one statement in a series of 1000s of statements which have helped normalize TFG. This should not even be close. I just listened to a clip of a veteran saying he voted because "TFG respects soldiers"
None of this resembles reality.
I say this as a non-USian who deals with the problem of TFG as much as anyone in proximity. I can't believe this was a contest, let alone one Harris could lose. Even genociding Harris, ffs
posted by ginger.beef at 10:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
This is one statement in a series of 1000s of statements which have helped normalize TFG. This should not even be close. I just listened to a clip of a veteran saying he voted
None of this resembles reality.
I say this as a non-USian who deals with the problem of TFG as much as anyone in proximity. I can't believe this was a contest, let alone one Harris could lose. Even genociding Harris, ffs
posted by ginger.beef at 10:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
these are not the Americans you are looking for
posted by Jacqueline at 10:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 10:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
I would love love love to be wrong about what I'm about to write, to learn that the Democrats have long prepared armies of lawyers ready to act in every county and every state where the Republican's long-established vote-destruction machine has been at work, starting tomorrow to throw everything they have at challenging the fraud that's behind some portion of Trump's win, but:
Overall the political entity known as the Democrats was less concerned with doing whatever it fucking takes to win than the Republicans were. It was never going to be a fair fight. Never ever ever ever ever. The Republicans have made that clear for years. The choice of the 'high road' over the low was never going to get the Democrats first to the finish line. The Republican candidate's entire career has been defined by lawbreaking, wiping his ass with the rulebook, and fighting dirty ; the party that's thrilled to have such an impressionable and morally vacuous puppet has made it clear for decades their utter disregard for character or principals, especially those the nation was founded on : they've rallied behind the kind of candidate that's the poster child of who the founders were driven to prevent. And yet ... we thought the Democratic candidate would win by playing fair, or by exercising the new politics of Joy?
The Democratic party -- my party -- was focused on ... various things... while the Republican party was focused on winning no matter the cost. It has been so goddamn obvious, for decades now, that for the GOP, party 'trumps' everything else, democracy included.
But at least we Democrats still have our principals. May those be a bastion against the terror.
I would love to read of substantive examples of how the Democrats will now bring the proper weapons to the gunfight, as opposed to having spent so much time and energy, during the past four years, on the sharpening and shining of knives.
posted by jerome powell buys his sweatbands in bulk only at 10:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Overall the political entity known as the Democrats was less concerned with doing whatever it fucking takes to win than the Republicans were. It was never going to be a fair fight. Never ever ever ever ever. The Republicans have made that clear for years. The choice of the 'high road' over the low was never going to get the Democrats first to the finish line. The Republican candidate's entire career has been defined by lawbreaking, wiping his ass with the rulebook, and fighting dirty ; the party that's thrilled to have such an impressionable and morally vacuous puppet has made it clear for decades their utter disregard for character or principals, especially those the nation was founded on : they've rallied behind the kind of candidate that's the poster child of who the founders were driven to prevent. And yet ... we thought the Democratic candidate would win by playing fair, or by exercising the new politics of Joy?
The Democratic party -- my party -- was focused on ... various things... while the Republican party was focused on winning no matter the cost. It has been so goddamn obvious, for decades now, that for the GOP, party 'trumps' everything else, democracy included.
But at least we Democrats still have our principals. May those be a bastion against the terror.
I would love to read of substantive examples of how the Democrats will now bring the proper weapons to the gunfight, as opposed to having spent so much time and energy, during the past four years, on the sharpening and shining of knives.
posted by jerome powell buys his sweatbands in bulk only at 10:10 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
Yeah, Pennsylvania is pretty much on Trump's side. The election is looking done, with Trump winning. The remaining 9% of Penn votes would have to be incredibly in favor of Harris, going hard against the average for the counties being counted, and all the other swing states would have to favor Harris as well, for her to grab the win. Never say never, but these are some real long odds.
posted by Philipschall at 10:12 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Philipschall at 10:12 PM on November 5, 2024
So the only paths left are:
PA (19) + MI (15) + WI (10) = 44
PA (19) + MI (15) + AZ (11) = 45
Nevada (6) doesn't matter now that NC + GA went Trump.
So basically, all eyes on PA. Trump is up 220,000 votes with 93% in but maybe Philadelphia County pulls it out? It's only 77.6% reported and she has almost a 4:1 ratio there. My math says that gives her another 140k and Trump another 37k in that one county, so she closes by +107k ... but the ratios could be better or worse on the uncounted votes. Fuck, man.
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
PA (19) + MI (15) + WI (10) = 44
PA (19) + MI (15) + AZ (11) = 45
Nevada (6) doesn't matter now that NC + GA went Trump.
So basically, all eyes on PA. Trump is up 220,000 votes with 93% in but maybe Philadelphia County pulls it out? It's only 77.6% reported and she has almost a 4:1 ratio there. My math says that gives her another 140k and Trump another 37k in that one county, so she closes by +107k ... but the ratios could be better or worse on the uncounted votes. Fuck, man.
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:12 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
I'm still hoping against hope, but things look absolutely grim at this stage. I can't really point fingers, given my home state (Queensland, Australia) just elected a right-wing government headed by someone nobody I've ever spoken to trusts. I'm hoping this isn't a pattern when it comes to our national election sometime in the first half of next year, but not holding out much hope.
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth. I'm so sorry for those who have fought this fight hard and (probably) lost again. It's such a tragedy that, in order to do good things, any prospective government will have to lie through their teeth to get elected in the first place. There doesn't seem to be any other way to win in this world. Lie and lie and lie again, tell the people whatever you have to with no need to waste time on plans or actual policy. Just lie your way in and then you can do whatever you want.
posted by dg at 10:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth. I'm so sorry for those who have fought this fight hard and (probably) lost again. It's such a tragedy that, in order to do good things, any prospective government will have to lie through their teeth to get elected in the first place. There doesn't seem to be any other way to win in this world. Lie and lie and lie again, tell the people whatever you have to with no need to waste time on plans or actual policy. Just lie your way in and then you can do whatever you want.
posted by dg at 10:14 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
My guess was either Harris early blowout win by winning GA and NC or nail biter and here we are. Honestly if Harris does manage a win we’ll be in the courts for months. I guess Americans really want to live out The Handmaid’s Tale.
I really don’t want to see a GOP administration deal with a real financial crisis but here we go. Tariffs will cause more inflation, they’ll cut taxes, then the deficit goes up and interest rates with it. Goodbye strong dollar. I hope everyone enjoyed their quality of life.
But, sure, it’s immigration’s fault.
posted by Farce_First at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I really don’t want to see a GOP administration deal with a real financial crisis but here we go. Tariffs will cause more inflation, they’ll cut taxes, then the deficit goes up and interest rates with it. Goodbye strong dollar. I hope everyone enjoyed their quality of life.
But, sure, it’s immigration’s fault.
posted by Farce_First at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
It looks like CNN just called Georgia for Trump? NC was called by them some time ago. Now AP released a special statement that they're not calling Georgia yet. No, wait, they changed their mind as I'm typing this out and calling Georgia for Trump.
Michigan is only 60% counted. Wayne County (Detroit) is only 24% counted. Michigan is way too early to call.
Arizona is razor close right now, and only half counted. Way too early to call.
Nevada is at 70%, Harris is down about 3% or about 40k. Clark County (Las Vegas) is at 77%. Very tight.
Wisconsin is also fairly tough. Milwaukee is only at 60% reporting, there might be enough votes in Milwaukee to make up the difference, but other blue areas are at 95% reporting and don't have many more votes to contribute.
Pennsylvania: there are still votes outstanding in the Philadelphia area. There's also a few outstanding votes in Harrisburg. Pittsburgh votes look like they're all in. But, Harris is down 200k.
So...not looking great, but not done.
posted by gimonca at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Michigan is only 60% counted. Wayne County (Detroit) is only 24% counted. Michigan is way too early to call.
Arizona is razor close right now, and only half counted. Way too early to call.
Nevada is at 70%, Harris is down about 3% or about 40k. Clark County (Las Vegas) is at 77%. Very tight.
Wisconsin is also fairly tough. Milwaukee is only at 60% reporting, there might be enough votes in Milwaukee to make up the difference, but other blue areas are at 95% reporting and don't have many more votes to contribute.
Pennsylvania: there are still votes outstanding in the Philadelphia area. There's also a few outstanding votes in Harrisburg. Pittsburgh votes look like they're all in. But, Harris is down 200k.
So...not looking great, but not done.
posted by gimonca at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Actually, the Guardian has the best view of the current math I've found.
As of right now, Harris needs the following amounts to win each swing state:
66% of the remaining votes in PA
55% of the remaining votes in NV (not important though)
55% of the remaining votes in MI
63% of the remaining votes in WI
50% of the remaining votes in AZ
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
As of right now, Harris needs the following amounts to win each swing state:
66% of the remaining votes in PA
55% of the remaining votes in NV (not important though)
55% of the remaining votes in MI
63% of the remaining votes in WI
50% of the remaining votes in AZ
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Right wing groups in Europe have been playing with fascism just as long if not longer than the Republican party has gone full RedHats. The has been entertaining idiots like Farage for ages and decided to FAFO their economy with Brexit thinking they could bully Brussels into letting the UK have it's cake (no open borders) and eat it too (free access to the common market). Idiots in the City didn't really care if it hurt average Britons either way because the City will make money no matter what.
France narrowly avoided their own Trump in Le Pen because of their two stage election systems and a coalition of left and center parties. The Netherlands has had it's own issues. The economically stunted areas of East Germany, etc. Any place where economic outlooks have been decline vs the primary economic growth centers is fertile ground for fascism and fascism lite and thus far liberals across the West have failed to come up with a compelling solution for addressing these areas which has just led to slowly increasing populations willing to tolerate neofascism because "at least X got the trains to run on time" etc.
Honestly even though I have the ability to blend in with the angry right in professional and social settings I am concerned about what sort of crazy shit a potential Republican trifecta will try to achieve. My daughter is at an age where this reactionary attempts to control women could really impact her over time and while I'm fortunate in terms of being able to provide educational opportunities that very few peopl can it's depressing to note that a ton of at-risk groups don't have that same sort of privilege to ignore the drive towards Gilead or whatever the fuck the chuckleheads backing Vance and company want.
posted by vuron at 10:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
France narrowly avoided their own Trump in Le Pen because of their two stage election systems and a coalition of left and center parties. The Netherlands has had it's own issues. The economically stunted areas of East Germany, etc. Any place where economic outlooks have been decline vs the primary economic growth centers is fertile ground for fascism and fascism lite and thus far liberals across the West have failed to come up with a compelling solution for addressing these areas which has just led to slowly increasing populations willing to tolerate neofascism because "at least X got the trains to run on time" etc.
Honestly even though I have the ability to blend in with the angry right in professional and social settings I am concerned about what sort of crazy shit a potential Republican trifecta will try to achieve. My daughter is at an age where this reactionary attempts to control women could really impact her over time and while I'm fortunate in terms of being able to provide educational opportunities that very few peopl can it's depressing to note that a ton of at-risk groups don't have that same sort of privilege to ignore the drive towards Gilead or whatever the fuck the chuckleheads backing Vance and company want.
posted by vuron at 10:19 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
The Guardian has been my go to all day, I liked how simple and straightforward the math is. I was over the personalized simulation tools after 2016, glad to see some clear informative stats that don't need a ton of cognitive energy.
posted by ipsative at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ipsative at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
As someone who is Terminally Online and Gen X (so for my entire life Trump has been a fucking punchline) - how (if he is to win) do I disconnect somewhat from this to not drive myself insane for the next several years? Does anyone have any tips?
I just. cannot. believe. this. He's such a joke. He can't form a coherent thought. He doesn't have any plans. He has only been out for himself and his Brand for his entire life. Why do people keep falling for his nonsense?
posted by getawaysticks at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
I just. cannot. believe. this. He's such a joke. He can't form a coherent thought. He doesn't have any plans. He has only been out for himself and his Brand for his entire life. Why do people keep falling for his nonsense?
posted by getawaysticks at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [37 favorites]
In science there's a heuristic, if you are confused or puzzled by something then you have the wrong explanatory understanding of what is happening.
I think 20th century leftist political theory has largely explained and predicted fascist phenomena in relation to actually-existing capitalism. In the context of middle America this was the great de-industrialization where white worker's labor was outsourced and globalized. Their towns left to be hollowed out and languish on their own, this disruption of the social fabric resulted in entire stratas of American society alienated from the technocratic elitism of Democrats and ripe for further exploitation by authoritarian capitalists whose successful recipe is to appeal to racism, misogyny, and nationalism.
posted by polymodus at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
I think 20th century leftist political theory has largely explained and predicted fascist phenomena in relation to actually-existing capitalism. In the context of middle America this was the great de-industrialization where white worker's labor was outsourced and globalized. Their towns left to be hollowed out and languish on their own, this disruption of the social fabric resulted in entire stratas of American society alienated from the technocratic elitism of Democrats and ripe for further exploitation by authoritarian capitalists whose successful recipe is to appeal to racism, misogyny, and nationalism.
posted by polymodus at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [36 favorites]
The only real strategy for the dems is a 50 state strategy and a fight in every distric in every election and constantly pushing out messaging how the republicans policy are what are causing problems. Heck I hear people who follow politics regularly say how republicans cut the deficit and they haven't done that since before Regan. I place most of the blame on the DNC and abandoning rural areas which have a disproportionate impact on the electoral college and the republicans have to spend no effort for a crazy amount of seats. Kamala campaign wasn’t perfect, but trump’s was so terrible it doesn’t even make sense that it is that close. Regardless of who wins this only the start of trying to fix our broken system.
posted by roguewraith at 10:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by roguewraith at 10:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
you have the wrong explanatory understanding of what is happening
This has turned out to be an illuminating and appropriate listen for today.
posted by phunniemee at 10:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
This has turned out to be an illuminating and appropriate listen for today.
posted by phunniemee at 10:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.
I am dead poor. I live in a bad neighborhood. The people I’m living with were kind enough to let me stay here while I get back on my feet but It’s Not Going Well. I don’t have a car, I had to move from a walkable neightborhood to a muggable neightborhood. I was punched in the face over the summer. By some random homeless guy that I ignored his advances because I was walking to by laundry detergent. I wasn’t doing great before the pandemic, but I was making life make sense again. A lot of the pandemic protections and assistance didn’t reach me, and what did was difficult to get or poorly implemented. I’ve been hungry more than once. I’m trying to find work but so often I can barely think. I have to leave the place I’m living, bus 45-60 minutes to a university because I’m living with a smoker and I have bad asthma that’s getting worse. I’m so deeply tired. My job search has only resulted in two interviews at retail stores and I didn’t get either.
I’m so fucking tired. I did make it to vote today, but I thought hard about not going. I know it matters but jeebus! And I know I’m not the only one dealing with life like this. I can’t get my feet under me. I do care who wins, but in a lot of ways, it just doesn’t matter with my day to day struggles. Kamala wasn’t going to reach down and help me. I wanted her to win, but when you’re just surviving, and a lot are, I can see why you wouldn’t. I haven’t missed a presidential election since Gore (threat of being fired) and not do I ever plan to. But bringing myself to go today was hard. And I wanted her to win, she wasn’t just no Trump to me.
Making it so it matters and is tangible will get people to give a fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 10:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
I am dead poor. I live in a bad neighborhood. The people I’m living with were kind enough to let me stay here while I get back on my feet but It’s Not Going Well. I don’t have a car, I had to move from a walkable neightborhood to a muggable neightborhood. I was punched in the face over the summer. By some random homeless guy that I ignored his advances because I was walking to by laundry detergent. I wasn’t doing great before the pandemic, but I was making life make sense again. A lot of the pandemic protections and assistance didn’t reach me, and what did was difficult to get or poorly implemented. I’ve been hungry more than once. I’m trying to find work but so often I can barely think. I have to leave the place I’m living, bus 45-60 minutes to a university because I’m living with a smoker and I have bad asthma that’s getting worse. I’m so deeply tired. My job search has only resulted in two interviews at retail stores and I didn’t get either.
I’m so fucking tired. I did make it to vote today, but I thought hard about not going. I know it matters but jeebus! And I know I’m not the only one dealing with life like this. I can’t get my feet under me. I do care who wins, but in a lot of ways, it just doesn’t matter with my day to day struggles. Kamala wasn’t going to reach down and help me. I wanted her to win, but when you’re just surviving, and a lot are, I can see why you wouldn’t. I haven’t missed a presidential election since Gore (threat of being fired) and not do I ever plan to. But bringing myself to go today was hard. And I wanted her to win, she wasn’t just no Trump to me.
Making it so it matters and is tangible will get people to give a fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 10:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [31 favorites]
50 state strategy and a fight in every district
This is meaningless without a message, which the Democrats consistently lack.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
This is meaningless without a message, which the Democrats consistently lack.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
Another good book to check out that phunniemee's recommendation reminded me of. (more about Evangelicals and how they all fell in line with Trump)
posted by getawaysticks at 10:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 10:31 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Is there any realistic way that Harris can win Pennsylvania at this point?
posted by medusa at 10:35 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by medusa at 10:35 PM on November 5, 2024
The 20th century was nice while it lasted I guess.
posted by torokunai at 10:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 10:35 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Fox has called Pennsylvania for Trump. No one else has called the state, but the reality is that if Harris doesn't win PA, she doesn't win. Stock up on nutrition and ammunition, get in good with your local mutual aid organization, because right now Trump appears to be the second coming of Grover Cleveland.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Panjandrum at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
According to The Guardian:
Pennsylvania 93.1% counted
Trump leading by 196,395 ballots
Harris must win over 70% of the 490,400 estimated ballots left to count to overturn Trump lead
posted by runcifex at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2024
Pennsylvania 93.1% counted
Trump leading by 196,395 ballots
Harris must win over 70% of the 490,400 estimated ballots left to count to overturn Trump lead
posted by runcifex at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2024
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right?
Yes, sorry. I'm just venting.
posted by Pendragon at 10:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Yes, sorry. I'm just venting.
posted by Pendragon at 10:39 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
My feeling about this election was, for many months, that it has ceased to be about the candidates. This wasn't a referendum on policy or even politics. This election was decided based on Republican voters feeling like they really want their team to win. This election was the result of Republicans wanting to get rid of their feelings of shame.
It has felt to me, for months, like the whole Republican electorate has been left feeling the exact same way that Trump felt when Obama humiliated him at one memorable White House Correspondents' Dinner many years ago, do you remember? The way Obama named and shamed Trump that day is the same way all of us named and shamed Republicans in the 2020 elections and January 6th and everything that came after. The naming and shaming was extremely richly deserved in each case! We weren't doing anything wrong. We were doing what was necessary and desperate and urgent.
But the effect of what we did was to create shame in the hearts of half the country. THEIR TEAM did unspeakable things and were caught in the act. THEIR TEAM was the punchline of every joke. THEIR TEAM did this.
What might have saved us all was if other prominent leaders in THEIR TEAM had repudiated Trump and Jan 6th and all of it. That would have allowed Republican voters to say, well, that wasn't MY TEAM, that was the craziest faction of MY TEAM and I'm associated with the normal faction of my team. But no Republican voter had this option. They were stuck with the shame of belonging to a TEAM that did unspeakably bad things for four damn years.
Nobody can live with shame like that. They *have" to deny it, reject it, cast it off, pretend that's not really shameful. They have to own what they did and say "fuck you, MY TEAM did nothing wrong." (I mean yeah theoretically there is a healthier option of admitting guilt and working on change from within but it is not a reasonable expectation from an electorate. There are vanishingly few individuals who can do this successfully. Trump certainly cannot.)
The moment the Republican leadership failed to distance themselves from Trump, this election was a foregone conclusion. There is nothing Trump could do wrong that would lose him this election, there is nothing Democrats could do right that would win us the election. The Republican electorate is motivated by the need to cast off shame, they aren't paying attention to their candidate, they don't give a shit who the candidate is, it's not about Trump electrifying the crowds anymore. This is about proving they can hold their head up high. It's too powerful a motivator.
Going into the 2020 election the Republican electorate felt a lot less shame - though they still felt a lot from the relentless onslaught of anti-Trump messaging for four years at least they had actually won 2016 and they hadn't done Jan 6th yet. And on the other side we had both the specter of literal death and true desperation motivating us to vote. It was enough then to help us win. This time our side is coming off of four years of relief and no pandemic. We were really not that desperate anymore. So it goes.
I'm sorry for all of us that we are here. I have no idea what we could have done to avoid this.
posted by MiraK at 10:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
It has felt to me, for months, like the whole Republican electorate has been left feeling the exact same way that Trump felt when Obama humiliated him at one memorable White House Correspondents' Dinner many years ago, do you remember? The way Obama named and shamed Trump that day is the same way all of us named and shamed Republicans in the 2020 elections and January 6th and everything that came after. The naming and shaming was extremely richly deserved in each case! We weren't doing anything wrong. We were doing what was necessary and desperate and urgent.
But the effect of what we did was to create shame in the hearts of half the country. THEIR TEAM did unspeakable things and were caught in the act. THEIR TEAM was the punchline of every joke. THEIR TEAM did this.
What might have saved us all was if other prominent leaders in THEIR TEAM had repudiated Trump and Jan 6th and all of it. That would have allowed Republican voters to say, well, that wasn't MY TEAM, that was the craziest faction of MY TEAM and I'm associated with the normal faction of my team. But no Republican voter had this option. They were stuck with the shame of belonging to a TEAM that did unspeakably bad things for four damn years.
Nobody can live with shame like that. They *have" to deny it, reject it, cast it off, pretend that's not really shameful. They have to own what they did and say "fuck you, MY TEAM did nothing wrong." (I mean yeah theoretically there is a healthier option of admitting guilt and working on change from within but it is not a reasonable expectation from an electorate. There are vanishingly few individuals who can do this successfully. Trump certainly cannot.)
The moment the Republican leadership failed to distance themselves from Trump, this election was a foregone conclusion. There is nothing Trump could do wrong that would lose him this election, there is nothing Democrats could do right that would win us the election. The Republican electorate is motivated by the need to cast off shame, they aren't paying attention to their candidate, they don't give a shit who the candidate is, it's not about Trump electrifying the crowds anymore. This is about proving they can hold their head up high. It's too powerful a motivator.
Going into the 2020 election the Republican electorate felt a lot less shame - though they still felt a lot from the relentless onslaught of anti-Trump messaging for four years at least they had actually won 2016 and they hadn't done Jan 6th yet. And on the other side we had both the specter of literal death and true desperation motivating us to vote. It was enough then to help us win. This time our side is coming off of four years of relief and no pandemic. We were really not that desperate anymore. So it goes.
I'm sorry for all of us that we are here. I have no idea what we could have done to avoid this.
posted by MiraK at 10:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
Which asshole used the monkey's paw to wish for no repeat of jan 6?
posted by stet at 10:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by stet at 10:41 PM on November 5, 2024 [19 favorites]
Are we really going to go straight to "they cheated!"?
Best case scenario now is the Democratic Party fundamentally rethinks its coalition. Black and Latino voters moving right should be a wakeup call.
posted by hermanubis at 10:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
Best case scenario now is the Democratic Party fundamentally rethinks its coalition. Black and Latino voters moving right should be a wakeup call.
posted by hermanubis at 10:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I donated. I talked to friends and family to try to persuade them. I donated again. I bought a t-shirt and some bumper stickers. (I live in a Pennsylvania county that has gone 86.22% for the orange man. It is not a small thing to drive around with a Harris/Walz sticker in these parts.) I did what I could do. It was not enough. *sigh* And now it's four years of ... that, with fewer guardrails and fewer competent people to shut him down as he ages into... incoherence and his young, not-incoherent running mate stands by ready to fire up the Project 2025 to Make America Great Again. Looks like control of the senate is gone and the house swings in the balance. The Supreme Court is ripe for new, young, conservative justices and they *will* be approved. Buckle up, America, you're going to get what you voted for. I hope you're happy.
posted by which_chick at 10:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by which_chick at 10:42 PM on November 5, 2024 [13 favorites]
I would argue that it's compounded by the fact that the Baby Boomers grew up during a nearly unprecendent period of economic growth, they didn't experience the horrors of fascism directly but instead experienced the struggle against fascism through some weird jingoistic patriotism.
That generation is wrapped up in nostalgia for a past that is a) incredibly idealized and b) not even remotely accessible to all populations. Gen X are edging closer to retirement and realizing that their 401k isn't going to cut it especially if inflation is > x% and they are chasing some magical 10% yearly gains on their woefully inadequate retirement savings or they have expensive Gen Z children.
Millenials are the first generation where the Great American Promise that your kids will be more prosperous than you doesn't seem to be materializing. Yes consumer goods made overseas are objectively cheaper when adjusting for inflation than their equivalent from back in the day but many of that generation aren't being able to effectively progress in their careers because older people are blocking advancement opportunities since they are trying to retirement max.
Gen Z are considered to be the most liberal generation but they are still not fully activated within the electorate and there is very concerning signs about how easy they are to program with alt-right messaging.
All of this has led to a lot of voters being willing to willfully ignore Trump's criminal tendencies because they think he can some how deliver on even a fraction of his campaign promises.
My main hope as a silver lining is that a lot of the proposals present in all of these christian nationalist manifestos are incredibly unpopular and that there are still enough adults in the party to keep the true believers from going full dominionist.
Small comfort to the Ukrainians and probably the Baltic states but Europe seems to be aware that depending on the US to be supercop is a dubious strategy for maintaining order in Europe and might be able to keep Ukraine propped up. I think a hot war with China in the next 4 years isn't impossible and if Xi wants Taiwan he's running out of time but my guess is that the oligarchs will try to rein in his worst tendencies on foreign policies since even they recognize war with China in either a tariff war or a military conflict would be bad for shareholder value.
posted by vuron at 10:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
That generation is wrapped up in nostalgia for a past that is a) incredibly idealized and b) not even remotely accessible to all populations. Gen X are edging closer to retirement and realizing that their 401k isn't going to cut it especially if inflation is > x% and they are chasing some magical 10% yearly gains on their woefully inadequate retirement savings or they have expensive Gen Z children.
Millenials are the first generation where the Great American Promise that your kids will be more prosperous than you doesn't seem to be materializing. Yes consumer goods made overseas are objectively cheaper when adjusting for inflation than their equivalent from back in the day but many of that generation aren't being able to effectively progress in their careers because older people are blocking advancement opportunities since they are trying to retirement max.
Gen Z are considered to be the most liberal generation but they are still not fully activated within the electorate and there is very concerning signs about how easy they are to program with alt-right messaging.
All of this has led to a lot of voters being willing to willfully ignore Trump's criminal tendencies because they think he can some how deliver on even a fraction of his campaign promises.
My main hope as a silver lining is that a lot of the proposals present in all of these christian nationalist manifestos are incredibly unpopular and that there are still enough adults in the party to keep the true believers from going full dominionist.
Small comfort to the Ukrainians and probably the Baltic states but Europe seems to be aware that depending on the US to be supercop is a dubious strategy for maintaining order in Europe and might be able to keep Ukraine propped up. I think a hot war with China in the next 4 years isn't impossible and if Xi wants Taiwan he's running out of time but my guess is that the oligarchs will try to rein in his worst tendencies on foreign policies since even they recognize war with China in either a tariff war or a military conflict would be bad for shareholder value.
posted by vuron at 10:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
I often regret giving up my Green Card (I know! Who does that?). Not one of those days today. Feels like this all but assures a Poilievre win in Canada next year too. Best of luck to us all, we’re going to need it.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:46 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:46 PM on November 5, 2024
I don’t know if it’s because I am naive or delusional or merely stupid, but I am in total shock. I find this incomprehensible. I literally am having trouble understanding how this is real.
We will have days and weeks and years to talk about how she could have and should have done more, especially on Gaza, a moral failure as well as a strategic one…but fuck me. All I can think about right now is how giddy I felt when Biden left the race and supported her, how glitteringly optimistic it all seemed in that moment.
How foolish I was. How painful the impact of landing from that delusion.
posted by Dorinda at 10:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [51 favorites]
We will have days and weeks and years to talk about how she could have and should have done more, especially on Gaza, a moral failure as well as a strategic one…but fuck me. All I can think about right now is how giddy I felt when Biden left the race and supported her, how glitteringly optimistic it all seemed in that moment.
How foolish I was. How painful the impact of landing from that delusion.
posted by Dorinda at 10:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [51 favorites]
At this point almost all of Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted, and Harris is still trailing Trump in PA 51%-48% statewide (200K votes).
I think it's pretty much game over.
posted by splitpeasoup at 10:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I think it's pretty much game over.
posted by splitpeasoup at 10:47 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
It doesn’t mean anything. The millions raised, the get out the vote ground game, the celebrity endorsements, filling stadiums to the rafters. None of that matters.
The second guessing has begun but it doesn’t matter. We’re a country filled with hateful stupid petty people.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [42 favorites]
The second guessing has begun but it doesn’t matter. We’re a country filled with hateful stupid petty people.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:51 PM on November 5, 2024 [42 favorites]
Yeah, unfortunately I don't see how Pennsylvania is winnable.
posted by medusa at 10:51 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by medusa at 10:51 PM on November 5, 2024
Everything hurts, and I'm so, so tired.
posted by ApathyGirl at 10:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by ApathyGirl at 10:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [10 favorites]
Biden is right, a lot of people are garbage.
posted by ichomp at 10:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 10:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
Yo, America, what the fuck?
This is the second time I wake up to this shit.
posted by From Bklyn at 10:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
This is the second time I wake up to this shit.
posted by From Bklyn at 10:58 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Until today, a constant refrain was that what happened online was not a true picture of what was going on in the real world. Sure stuff like "MAGA will avenge the squirrel" (it's just a recent example, a lot of other stuff that floated around online was either dumber or more offensive) seemed like a twitter/truth social/facebook thing that stayed inside a bubble and didn't reflect how people, especially the right wing, actually thought.
But no, this stuff does matter. This is really how they think and they really are online 24/7. While people on the left encouraged others to "go outside and touch grass" the right was just doubling down on everything; their anger, their fear, their greed (in some cases), their thirst for revenge (real or perceived), their hate.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
But no, this stuff does matter. This is really how they think and they really are online 24/7. While people on the left encouraged others to "go outside and touch grass" the right was just doubling down on everything; their anger, their fear, their greed (in some cases), their thirst for revenge (real or perceived), their hate.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:00 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Dorinda - we were all so excited! Finally a non-white non-male non-76+ year old person in that race that was destined to be a trainwreck. I ran out to my husband who was working in the yard and yelled "Biden Dropped Out" and burst into tears.
What a shame.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
What a shame.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
You need to look on the bright side, if trump wins then people in cages at the border and materially supporting a genocide may go back to being bad things.
posted by Iax at 11:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Iax at 11:01 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
I am living in a very Trumpy in PA area and what most people think about is nothing about what people think about here. It’s literally all economic security that drives the mood with racism/sexism thrown on top. Nobody even talks about January 6th. They have no clue who policies does what other than what gets filtered through the media, which is garbage and the retention of what happened even last year is close to zero. Yeah Kamala Harris should have been more perfect, but this a complete failure of the Democratic Party as a whole. The republicans ran a disorganized campaign and this should be no contest. The fact that there were a ton a new voter registrations that were republican in PAis a sign of Democratic Party weakness as whole over the last 8 years. Every democratic candidate should not have to be perfect to win.
posted by roguewraith at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
posted by roguewraith at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [20 favorites]
Anecdotal but I talked to my Mom, a (barely) millionaire boomer in metro Detroit, many times about the election. She and my Dad came from zero money and worked very hard and saved their money like crazy. She voted DT in 2016 and then Biden in 2020. She's pretty Republican, and is surrounded in her "active retirement" community by serious Trumpers. After Dobbs she swore she would never vote Republican again - she has 3 daughters! She couldn't believe that our rights were taken away.
As the election got closer, she changed her mind and said "I think immigration is more of an issue for me than abortion." I just about fell on the floor. She's a white woman who never has to work again living in a prosh suburb of Detroit, what is immigration doing to you? "They are using up resources that might take away from my social security."
She did end up voting for Kamala but only after the Arnold Palmer speech. She said that was the last straw. (We are a golfing family)
posted by getawaysticks at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
As the election got closer, she changed her mind and said "I think immigration is more of an issue for me than abortion." I just about fell on the floor. She's a white woman who never has to work again living in a prosh suburb of Detroit, what is immigration doing to you? "They are using up resources that might take away from my social security."
She did end up voting for Kamala but only after the Arnold Palmer speech. She said that was the last straw. (We are a golfing family)
posted by getawaysticks at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I fear that this is the end of my country. I’m saddened to think that I never really knew it in the first place.
I fear for my daughters and their future.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
I fear for my daughters and their future.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Dorinda: I'm in shock too... it leaves me wondering where peoples' consciences' are? I thought we spent the better part of the few past decades trying to crack the cloistered conscience of some of these folks, mine certainly was cracked. Others I guess are more durable than that. Stubbornly so. Jesus flipping a table doesn't mean meaningful shit to them.
And worse from my standpoint: the GWB administration made sense from an oil angle, as bad as that is. The Trump admin makes sense from none. Bankrupt property? morals? ___?
My recent thought is that folks more local want more power, and feel that a more coherent higher level power in the presidency steals from that. So pop a dummy in there, this time being Trump. No one sensible will look there now. Of course, we know that he has plans that'd effect the lower levels pretty immediately. But it's not like consistency has been a thing with this party aside from "we're in charge, deal with it".
Inflation, immigration, be damned
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
And worse from my standpoint: the GWB administration made sense from an oil angle, as bad as that is. The Trump admin makes sense from none. Bankrupt property? morals? ___?
My recent thought is that folks more local want more power, and feel that a more coherent higher level power in the presidency steals from that. So pop a dummy in there, this time being Trump. No one sensible will look there now. Of course, we know that he has plans that'd effect the lower levels pretty immediately. But it's not like consistency has been a thing with this party aside from "we're in charge, deal with it".
Inflation, immigration, be damned
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
JoeXIII007: isn't it just "fuck you, libs"? Isn't that the whole point?
posted by getawaysticks at 11:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 11:04 PM on November 5, 2024 [12 favorites]
If there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden on issues important to broad sectors of the electorate. So at the end of the day this still ended up becoming a referendum on Biden's presidency and complaints from the electorate that they are struggling economically and they want someone to solve their problems.
Because Harris wasn't going to be able to run against Biden and against Trump she had to try to make it a referendum on Trump and unfortunately even though even Republicans dislike Trump's crass and venal opportunism they wanted to be told a story about how they are going to get ahead.
Full on nationalism, protectionism, etc isn't going to solve people's economic problems and will actually negatively impact them but getting a low information voter to understand tariffs are horrible economic policies is already putting yourself on the backfoot because you are letting the other team define the rules of the debate.
At the end of the day liberals need to come up with compelling economic arguments that appeal not just to economic policy wonks but also fill that populist need to appeal to low information voters. I'm not sure depression era FDR chicken in every pot would work but something akin to a making a promise that no American should be left behind economically is probably what's needed to combat the unicorn and rainbows Trump has been promising his supporters.
posted by vuron at 11:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Because Harris wasn't going to be able to run against Biden and against Trump she had to try to make it a referendum on Trump and unfortunately even though even Republicans dislike Trump's crass and venal opportunism they wanted to be told a story about how they are going to get ahead.
Full on nationalism, protectionism, etc isn't going to solve people's economic problems and will actually negatively impact them but getting a low information voter to understand tariffs are horrible economic policies is already putting yourself on the backfoot because you are letting the other team define the rules of the debate.
At the end of the day liberals need to come up with compelling economic arguments that appeal not just to economic policy wonks but also fill that populist need to appeal to low information voters. I'm not sure depression era FDR chicken in every pot would work but something akin to a making a promise that no American should be left behind economically is probably what's needed to combat the unicorn and rainbows Trump has been promising his supporters.
posted by vuron at 11:07 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Oh don’t worry, we’ll get depression era soon enough.
posted by azpenguin at 11:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 11:09 PM on November 5, 2024 [7 favorites]
Anyone else up for an intensive French learning club? Learning French is worth up to 50 extra points in the Canadian immigration system!
posted by Jacqueline at 11:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 11:11 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
It's not just Fox anymore, by the way. CNN and NBC are calling Pennsylvania for Trump, and thus, the election.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:12 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by LostInUbe at 11:12 PM on November 5, 2024
NBC has called Pennsylvania for Trump, and given Alaska leans heavily R, he will take the white house.
posted by pwnguin at 11:13 PM on November 5, 2024
posted by pwnguin at 11:13 PM on November 5, 2024
getawaysticks: I guess I'm delusional in hoping it ain't that dumb
but you're right.
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
but you're right.
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:13 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
There's still hope. I'm going to bed, and hoping things look different tomorrow.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Kevin Street at 11:15 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
As president, Trump will play host to both the World Cup (2026) and the Summer Olympics (2028). That's going to be something.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by LostInUbe at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
If there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
Why would she want that distance?! She was his VP! She should have been running on his record, which was fine, totally fine.
I don't want to single you out in particular, but you are illustrating the problem of US politics. We can have a widely successful president on inflation and union benefits, as well as a number of other economic numbers, but those facts are pointless because US politics are no longer fact based.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
Why would she want that distance?! She was his VP! She should have been running on his record, which was fine, totally fine.
I don't want to single you out in particular, but you are illustrating the problem of US politics. We can have a widely successful president on inflation and union benefits, as well as a number of other economic numbers, but those facts are pointless because US politics are no longer fact based.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [26 favorites]
Fireworks going off in the park by my apartment. Good night everyone
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:16 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:18 PM on November 5, 2024 [3 favorites]
I said in the Biden debate thread that Trump would beat Harris. I'm not gloating - but why did I say it?
Because there are a lot of voters out there that detest the two parties and see them as grasping liars. Beholden to the corporations. Living in a bubble. In 2016 those people saw Trump as someone who was not one of the usual Republican politicians and they watched with glee as he knocked down primary candidate after candidate, mainly by pointing out that they would say anything to get elected. Bam - instant hero to them, and all the other Republicans had to fall in line.
This time around none of those voters saw anything in Kamala than another wishy washy Democrat machine politician, and they were never going to swap from Trump to her.
Yes they are stupid if they think Trump is any better than the people in the Republican party he replaced, but all that stuff about him being morally repugnant, stupid, narcissistic, etc etc? They don't care! They like that about him because it makes all the people he beats look incredibly stupid.
To stop the rot, the Democrats are going to have to have a major clearout of all the time servers - all the politicians who are happy to take whatever they can get while paying lip service to intersectional politics. It's over. It's been over for a decade and they just won't accept it.
They don't fight, they never fight, and that's why they lose.
posted by awfurby at 11:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
Because there are a lot of voters out there that detest the two parties and see them as grasping liars. Beholden to the corporations. Living in a bubble. In 2016 those people saw Trump as someone who was not one of the usual Republican politicians and they watched with glee as he knocked down primary candidate after candidate, mainly by pointing out that they would say anything to get elected. Bam - instant hero to them, and all the other Republicans had to fall in line.
This time around none of those voters saw anything in Kamala than another wishy washy Democrat machine politician, and they were never going to swap from Trump to her.
Yes they are stupid if they think Trump is any better than the people in the Republican party he replaced, but all that stuff about him being morally repugnant, stupid, narcissistic, etc etc? They don't care! They like that about him because it makes all the people he beats look incredibly stupid.
To stop the rot, the Democrats are going to have to have a major clearout of all the time servers - all the politicians who are happy to take whatever they can get while paying lip service to intersectional politics. It's over. It's been over for a decade and they just won't accept it.
They don't fight, they never fight, and that's why they lose.
posted by awfurby at 11:20 PM on November 5, 2024 [24 favorites]
> Trump will play host to
And the 250 yr bicentennial
Maybe he’ll get his tank parade this time
posted by torokunai at 11:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
And the 250 yr bicentennial
Maybe he’ll get his tank parade this time
posted by torokunai at 11:21 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
.
posted by Marticus at 11:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 11:22 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands
Don't you have some fertilizer to wash off your parliament building after the farmers came to town? Oh wait, aren't those farmers in your parliament, because they're part of your ruling coalition?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
Don't you have some fertilizer to wash off your parliament building after the farmers came to town? Oh wait, aren't those farmers in your parliament, because they're part of your ruling coalition?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
The unfortunate thing is that while a lot of Trump voters pick him because of the racism, etc, there are also a lot of Trump voters who pick him because they mistakenly believe that he will improve the economy for working people and fix the many problems facing this country. You don't get this kind of realignment because suddenly a lot more people are evil; you get it because a lot more people are radically misled. They think that because Harris is unlikely to fix their problems, Trump must be likely to fix them by some kind of default, instead of thinking that neither party is going to fix their problems but one party is going to make them a lot worse. This is a Brexit situation - propagandized and misled people voted in a bad situation for something that will make things worse, and the misled plus the racists were enough to win.
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on. Obviously Trump is going to make the economy much worse - how much worse depends on how much of his agenda he enacts. But people who have been prevented from understanding big picture economic stuff don't get that; their thinking is that things are bad now and so a change, a vote against, is going to produce good results, because they believe that if there are two choices one must be good for them. "There are two choices and both are bad but one is worse" is hard for people to internalize and act on.
As with the last Trump victory, there is plenty of blame to go around. The Democratic party has been digging its own grave since the Clinton administration, but that's not to say that lots of other people with shovels weren't helping. If it wasn't this election, it would have been the next election, because every election has become "stave off the Very Worst for another four years of stasis" and one election or another you won't be able to stave off the Very Worst anymore - it's like juggling knives, at some point you're going to miss one.
The past eight years have been real appel du vide times - it's been clear that eventually we were going to fall into the abyss and one always wonders if it's not better just to leap. Interesting to find that we are now after all falling and leaping is no longer an option.
posted by Frowner at 11:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on. Obviously Trump is going to make the economy much worse - how much worse depends on how much of his agenda he enacts. But people who have been prevented from understanding big picture economic stuff don't get that; their thinking is that things are bad now and so a change, a vote against, is going to produce good results, because they believe that if there are two choices one must be good for them. "There are two choices and both are bad but one is worse" is hard for people to internalize and act on.
As with the last Trump victory, there is plenty of blame to go around. The Democratic party has been digging its own grave since the Clinton administration, but that's not to say that lots of other people with shovels weren't helping. If it wasn't this election, it would have been the next election, because every election has become "stave off the Very Worst for another four years of stasis" and one election or another you won't be able to stave off the Very Worst anymore - it's like juggling knives, at some point you're going to miss one.
The past eight years have been real appel du vide times - it's been clear that eventually we were going to fall into the abyss and one always wonders if it's not better just to leap. Interesting to find that we are now after all falling and leaping is no longer an option.
posted by Frowner at 11:23 PM on November 5, 2024 [54 favorites]
We can have a widely successful president on inflation
Honestly, the best anyone can plausibly claim about the Biden inflation response was that the Inflation Reduction Act probably didn't cause much additional inflation. The most recent data puts us at 2.4% over the past 12 months, when the goal is to be below 2.0. And to get there the Fed, a.k.a. Not Biden -- had to raise interest rates pretty heavily.
posted by pwnguin at 11:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
Honestly, the best anyone can plausibly claim about the Biden inflation response was that the Inflation Reduction Act probably didn't cause much additional inflation. The most recent data puts us at 2.4% over the past 12 months, when the goal is to be below 2.0. And to get there the Fed, a.k.a. Not Biden -- had to raise interest rates pretty heavily.
posted by pwnguin at 11:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [2 favorites]
2% is the floor actuzlly, and rates were normalized, not raised all that high
posted by torokunai at 11:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 11:25 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
> I literally am having trouble understanding how this is real.
re: The Destructionists
something like...
lee atwater > newt gingrich > karl rove
-Hungarian Parliament Votes to Extend Orban's Rule by Decree
-Orban Challenger Magyar's Party Widens Lead in Hungarian Poll
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
re: The Destructionists
something like...
lee atwater > newt gingrich > karl rove
In 2008, a Republican operative named Chris Jankowski had an idea. Others, including Republicans, in the wake of Barack Obama's presidential victory, concluded demography might soon afford Democrats a realignment to rival Franklin Delano Roosevelt's.Dana Milbank charts the 25-year journey to Jan. 6. He’s optimistic — in the long term
Jankowski instead saw an Icarus flying too close to the sun. The important election, he realized, would come two years later, for seats in state legislatures across the United States.
He began making a presentation to corporate and conservative donors: Fund my new "Republican State Leadership Committee" (a title he had intentionally chosen to be nondescript, as befitted a stealth guerilla campaign), and I will give you the world.
He called his plan "Project REDMAP." It would work like this.
Through assiduous research, his group would pinpoint a handful of vulnerable Democratic seats in states where control of state legislatures was close—Pennsylvania, for example, where Democrats controlled the lower chamber by a single vote—identifying the tipping points that could flip those bodies for the Republicans. They would then control the drawing of U.S. Congressional maps after the 2010 census.
At the time there were an estimated 25 true "swing" Congressional districts. By deploying state-of-the-art software to devise maps to capture the greatest number of U.S. House seats with the fewest number of votes, the party could move every one of them safely into Republican hands for at least the next 10 years.
All, he promised, for the low, low price of $30 million—about a tenth of what people are estimating the candidates will spend in the upcoming 2018 Illinois governor's race alone.
Karl Rove ducked in on one of the pitch meetings: "People call us a vast right-wing conspiracy, but we're really a half-assed right-wing conspiracy. Now it's time to get serious."
You write about anocracy (part democracy, part dictatorship) and include quotes about an approaching civil war. Where are we headed?also btw...
We have to get back to a place where there’s a shared set of facts or nothing else is going to work. I believe we will get back there but I don’t know what happens between now and then. My optimism is in the long run — this struggle is racial and it’s going to be resolved because we are not going to be a white-dominated country — but that’s 30 or 40 years from now. I’m not optimistic in the near term.
All the signs of our trajectory are pointing in the wrong direction right now. The level of violence could be greater. There’s going to be a chipping away at democratic institutions and press freedoms. We can’t predict how much of this will be lost until things start turning around, so all we can do is keep fighting at every turn to preserve it.
-Hungarian Parliament Votes to Extend Orban's Rule by Decree
-Orban Challenger Magyar's Party Widens Lead in Hungarian Poll
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
Someone please just tell me how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter when she wakes up in a few hours. I’m serious; I need a script.
I don’t know how to be her rock, her “helper” she should look for in times of trouble, when I am terrified myself.
posted by timestep at 11:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
I don’t know how to be her rock, her “helper” she should look for in times of trouble, when I am terrified myself.
posted by timestep at 11:26 PM on November 5, 2024 [15 favorites]
It's all zero-sum-game politics and unfortunately zero-sum-game is very very easy for people to frame all sort of pretty racist/sexist/prejudiced arguments in.
A significant % of people are naturally jealous that someone else getting x means that it's coming at their expense. Appeals to empathy, fairness, or even that looking out for the collective will result in a bigger slice of the pie for everyone simply don't resonate for this group at all.
Student Loan forgiveness was a key example of this, "I didn't need someone paying my school loans why do they" was a common refrain. Nevermind that freeing up income from former students would actually have a beneficial impact on growing the economy it was very easy for a lot of the electorate to see that as unfair because it benefitted groups other than themselves. Same with anything that is percieved to be benefiting a historically disadvantaged group. Redressing systemic racism/sexism/etc is not something they want the government doing even if it's fundamentally fair because they have no desire to see fairness enforced if it doesn't result in a material benefit to them.
I don't know what % of the electorate truly doesn't care about fairness or doesn't have empathy but I think we've all been surprised over the last 8 years about how high that % looks to be and how resentful they are about any policy that gets put in place that doesn't benefit them. It does seem to be that the Republican party has been able to weaponize resentment and a lack of empathy on the part of some voters however.
posted by vuron at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
A significant % of people are naturally jealous that someone else getting x means that it's coming at their expense. Appeals to empathy, fairness, or even that looking out for the collective will result in a bigger slice of the pie for everyone simply don't resonate for this group at all.
Student Loan forgiveness was a key example of this, "I didn't need someone paying my school loans why do they" was a common refrain. Nevermind that freeing up income from former students would actually have a beneficial impact on growing the economy it was very easy for a lot of the electorate to see that as unfair because it benefitted groups other than themselves. Same with anything that is percieved to be benefiting a historically disadvantaged group. Redressing systemic racism/sexism/etc is not something they want the government doing even if it's fundamentally fair because they have no desire to see fairness enforced if it doesn't result in a material benefit to them.
I don't know what % of the electorate truly doesn't care about fairness or doesn't have empathy but I think we've all been surprised over the last 8 years about how high that % looks to be and how resentful they are about any policy that gets put in place that doesn't benefit them. It does seem to be that the Republican party has been able to weaponize resentment and a lack of empathy on the part of some voters however.
posted by vuron at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [5 favorites]
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth.
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic. The people, desperate for any salve, have thus embraced big-talking demagogues.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic. The people, desperate for any salve, have thus embraced big-talking demagogues.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:27 PM on November 5, 2024 [18 favorites]
Dang, just a week until the ten year anniversary of this comment:
The left, the progressive movement, social justice, whatever - not only the Democratic Party - needs to figure out how to do populism again. Hard-right xenophobes are in the EU Parliament, and misogynist trolls are co-opting hobbyist movements on the internet. People laugh at Dark Enlightenment types as dorks, but they're just the smoke before the fire; as liberal democracy breaks down and market capitalism swallows itself, more and more people are going to be turned towards an ultra-regressive hard-right douchebag conservatism that seeks to undo everything that's been established in the postwar era. Progressives need to stop with the tu quoque arguments and getting offended by these criticisms, and see how to adapt the message, innovate the message, whatever to win over hearts and minds. Writing off entire populations of people is not how you win over the petit bourgeois or the proletariat. Remember Weimar.
If the left is to be taken seriously as serving the cause of the people, they need to learn how to speak the language of the people again.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:02 PM on November 12, 2014 [8 favorites +] [⚑]
posted by Apocryphon at 11:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
The left, the progressive movement, social justice, whatever - not only the Democratic Party - needs to figure out how to do populism again. Hard-right xenophobes are in the EU Parliament, and misogynist trolls are co-opting hobbyist movements on the internet. People laugh at Dark Enlightenment types as dorks, but they're just the smoke before the fire; as liberal democracy breaks down and market capitalism swallows itself, more and more people are going to be turned towards an ultra-regressive hard-right douchebag conservatism that seeks to undo everything that's been established in the postwar era. Progressives need to stop with the tu quoque arguments and getting offended by these criticisms, and see how to adapt the message, innovate the message, whatever to win over hearts and minds. Writing off entire populations of people is not how you win over the petit bourgeois or the proletariat. Remember Weimar.
If the left is to be taken seriously as serving the cause of the people, they need to learn how to speak the language of the people again.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:02 PM on November 12, 2014 [8 favorites +] [⚑]
posted by Apocryphon at 11:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [25 favorites]
"We can deny our heritage and our history, but we cannot escape responsibility for the result. There is no way for a citizen of a republic to abdicate his responsibilities. As a nation we have come into our full inheritance at a tender age. We proclaim ourselves, as indeed we are, the defenders of freedom, wherever it continues to exist in the world, but we cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home. The actions of the j̶u̶n̶i̶o̶r̶ ̶S̶e̶n̶a̶t̶o̶r̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶̶̶̶W̶i̶s̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶n̶-/t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶m̶e̶r̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶s̶i̶d̶e̶n̶t̶ have caused alarm and dismay amongst our allies abroad, and given considerable comfort to our enemies. And whose fault is that? Not really his. He didn’t create this situation of fear; he merely exploited it — and rather successfully. Cassius was right. ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.’
Good night, and good luck.”
– Edward R. Murrow
posted by clavdivs at 11:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
Good night, and good luck.”
– Edward R. Murrow
posted by clavdivs at 11:28 PM on November 5, 2024 [8 favorites]
>how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter
https://eccentricemmie.medium.com/only-30-50-of-people-have-an-internal-monologue-b75125ca5694
posted by torokunai at 11:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
https://eccentricemmie.medium.com/only-30-50-of-people-have-an-internal-monologue-b75125ca5694
posted by torokunai at 11:30 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
>or Keynesian relief
We did that in 2021 and we got “inflation!1!” for the trouble
posted by torokunai at 11:33 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
We did that in 2021 and we got “inflation!1!” for the trouble
posted by torokunai at 11:33 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
This. And not understanding that it doesn’t matter if you personally like what Biden has done, the electorate doesn’t. The electorate overall did not feel their lives had improved under Biden. And you can’t just tell people that they’re mistaken about their lives.
posted by corb at 11:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
This. And not understanding that it doesn’t matter if you personally like what Biden has done, the electorate doesn’t. The electorate overall did not feel their lives had improved under Biden. And you can’t just tell people that they’re mistaken about their lives.
posted by corb at 11:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [14 favorites]
.
posted by shesdeadimalive at 11:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by shesdeadimalive at 11:37 PM on November 5, 2024 [1 favorite]
a message, which the Democrats consistently lack
The story that needs to be widely understood is this:
Worldwide, unprecedented amounts of government money got handed out very suddenly during the pre-vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a completely justifiable attempt to limit the number of ordinary people becoming destitute. This was humane and appropriate policy, and governments that did more of it caused their nations much less suffering than governments that did less.
However, that massive transfer of wealth from government hands to private hands rapidly worked its way through the world's economies and ended up, via the usual channels, in the bank accounts of the already wealthy, who became even more so - again, at an unprecedented rate.
Those people, already having more totally passive income than they could possibly spend on anything they actually need even if given hundreds of lifetimes to do so, have now spent their unthinkably large COVID windfall on acquiring even more of the assets formerly owned by the middle classes. That additional demand for assets from the wealthy has rapidly increased the prices of assets generally, which has led to correspondingly rapid increases in the rents charged to non-owners for the use of those assets.
That sudden huge across-the-board rent increase, coupled with supply chain issues caused directly by the pandemic's effects on the workforce, caused a huge spike in inflation. Reserve banks across the world have reacted to that in the only way that their enabling legislation allows them to, by jacking up interest rates to "cool" their economies. This has worked in the past, inflation being a symptom of the existence of more demand within an economy than it can match with supply. But it's been much less effective and therefore much more protracted this time around, because the demand increase that drove this inflationary spike was driven by a very small segment of society that was already massively cashed up, and whose spending patterns are therefore far less affected by the price of loans. In fact, given that debt is also an asset, jacking up the price of money amounts to yet another income boost for the owners of debt, and guess who that is?
So ordinary people have seen across-the-board price rises coming at them from every conceivable direction, and given that most voters are low-information voters when it comes to either politics or macroeconomics, the predictable and predicted result has been massive unpopularity for incumbent governments as folks look for somebody to blame.
The message that needs to be widely understood is this:
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
But until every voter in every democracy is yelling that message at the ruling classes, there's about as much chance of any of them acting on it as there is of Palestinians being widely thought of as ordinary human beings.
I have learned enough about the value that human beings put on wilful ignorance to expect neither of these things to happen in my remaining lifetime. I have also long had enough faith in American racism and misogyny to be completely unsurprised by today's result; anybody who knows me face to face will have heard me predicting it with a weird combination of confidence and pants-shitting fear since October last year.
Then again, I'm also That Guy who has been yammering on about the inevitability of widespread social collapse as human overgrowth continues to crush and crowd out everything else for the last forty years, and who chose not to reproduce on that basis, so I'm probably not the oracle you're looking for at this point.
As for what to do next: I can't think of anything more constructive than nurturing your local kids. Do your best to show them how and why not to grow up into the fuckwits who inflicted today upon you.
I'm off to get stoned and go for a swim in the river.
posted by flabdablet at 11:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [76 favorites]
The story that needs to be widely understood is this:
Worldwide, unprecedented amounts of government money got handed out very suddenly during the pre-vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a completely justifiable attempt to limit the number of ordinary people becoming destitute. This was humane and appropriate policy, and governments that did more of it caused their nations much less suffering than governments that did less.
However, that massive transfer of wealth from government hands to private hands rapidly worked its way through the world's economies and ended up, via the usual channels, in the bank accounts of the already wealthy, who became even more so - again, at an unprecedented rate.
Those people, already having more totally passive income than they could possibly spend on anything they actually need even if given hundreds of lifetimes to do so, have now spent their unthinkably large COVID windfall on acquiring even more of the assets formerly owned by the middle classes. That additional demand for assets from the wealthy has rapidly increased the prices of assets generally, which has led to correspondingly rapid increases in the rents charged to non-owners for the use of those assets.
That sudden huge across-the-board rent increase, coupled with supply chain issues caused directly by the pandemic's effects on the workforce, caused a huge spike in inflation. Reserve banks across the world have reacted to that in the only way that their enabling legislation allows them to, by jacking up interest rates to "cool" their economies. This has worked in the past, inflation being a symptom of the existence of more demand within an economy than it can match with supply. But it's been much less effective and therefore much more protracted this time around, because the demand increase that drove this inflationary spike was driven by a very small segment of society that was already massively cashed up, and whose spending patterns are therefore far less affected by the price of loans. In fact, given that debt is also an asset, jacking up the price of money amounts to yet another income boost for the owners of debt, and guess who that is?
So ordinary people have seen across-the-board price rises coming at them from every conceivable direction, and given that most voters are low-information voters when it comes to either politics or macroeconomics, the predictable and predicted result has been massive unpopularity for incumbent governments as folks look for somebody to blame.
The message that needs to be widely understood is this:
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
But until every voter in every democracy is yelling that message at the ruling classes, there's about as much chance of any of them acting on it as there is of Palestinians being widely thought of as ordinary human beings.
I have learned enough about the value that human beings put on wilful ignorance to expect neither of these things to happen in my remaining lifetime. I have also long had enough faith in American racism and misogyny to be completely unsurprised by today's result; anybody who knows me face to face will have heard me predicting it with a weird combination of confidence and pants-shitting fear since October last year.
Then again, I'm also That Guy who has been yammering on about the inevitability of widespread social collapse as human overgrowth continues to crush and crowd out everything else for the last forty years, and who chose not to reproduce on that basis, so I'm probably not the oracle you're looking for at this point.
As for what to do next: I can't think of anything more constructive than nurturing your local kids. Do your best to show them how and why not to grow up into the fuckwits who inflicted today upon you.
I'm off to get stoned and go for a swim in the river.
posted by flabdablet at 11:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [76 favorites]
Did not expect, as we close out 2024, that the shining and radical beacon of democracy in the western world would be Keir Starmer.
posted by Wordshore at 11:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 11:40 PM on November 5, 2024 [17 favorites]
My daughter is 14 and she's away at school. We talk to her everyday and she and her classmates (all girls school) are upset about this but I think the best way to talk to kids and young adults is not to give them the answers but to admit you don't know and you have your own fears and concerns. Ask them about how this news makes them feel, does it make them feel mad or anxious or something else. Don't minimize those fears or concerns or anxieties by telling them some story about how this will somehow work out but allow them to express their own emotions. By allowing them the room to express big emotions and maybe just backing them away from a doom spiral if they are prone to that I think you give them room to process this news in a way that works for them.
The problems of a nation are hard for a youth or even young adult to fully process so it can also be useful to encourage them to talk about what they can do at a local level if this outcome was something they didn't want to happen. But let them have their big emotions first before providing your solutions.
posted by vuron at 11:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
The problems of a nation are hard for a youth or even young adult to fully process so it can also be useful to encourage them to talk about what they can do at a local level if this outcome was something they didn't want to happen. But let them have their big emotions first before providing your solutions.
posted by vuron at 11:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
I am fucking TIRED everyone blaming the left. Oh was Kamala supposed to speak word salad? Would that have helped? You think if she spoke about windmill cancer and people eating dogs and cats that would have changed the vote.
It's the misogyny and the racism. And blaming her for not knowing how to "speak to the people" when so many people embraced her is bullshit.
posted by miss-lapin at 11:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [85 favorites]
It's the misogyny and the racism. And blaming her for not knowing how to "speak to the people" when so many people embraced her is bullshit.
posted by miss-lapin at 11:43 PM on November 5, 2024 [85 favorites]
Maybe the electorate shouldn’t in 2022 have given the House to the GOP, where the O stands for Obstruction. The fuxk they expect to happen 2023-2024?
posted by torokunai at 11:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 11:44 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
Did not expect, as we close out 2024, that the shining and radical beacon of democracy in the western world would be Keir Starmer.
Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula erasure
posted by Apocryphon at 11:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula erasure
posted by Apocryphon at 11:45 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
...locally, it might well get very grim in certain corners of the US - the media, anyone who isn't white and 'male,' and anyone who someone decides is an 'immigrant.' (Will he really be a dictator on day one? Will he really deport what was it 20 million people right away? And women, generally?)
But I live non-locally and my bigger concern is what reverberations this will have in my locality: no more NATO? No more aide for Ukraine?
I don't see any upside here. (and it grinds my gears that Musk and Besos called it correctly.)
posted by From Bklyn at 11:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
But I live non-locally and my bigger concern is what reverberations this will have in my locality: no more NATO? No more aide for Ukraine?
I don't see any upside here. (and it grinds my gears that Musk and Besos called it correctly.)
posted by From Bklyn at 11:48 PM on November 5, 2024 [4 favorites]
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on.
This. The economy and this. Most people don't watch the news or read about issues from fact-checked sources these days. They're spreading "facts" by word of mouth, and they are treating pundits, YouTube personalities, and random videos and memes on X and other media as equivalent to major media organizations which, while corporate and concentrated, do usually have primary reporting (on the ground), fact-checkers, editors, and ombudsmen. Many also don't see the world in terms of facts and ideas and logic; that's not a diss, it's perfectly natural to prioritize instincts and relationships in many cases. But it does mean that you can't say "here is some more climate data" or "actually, look at this graph on the economy" and get them to change sides.
So I think that we do a lot here where we consider ourselves more rational than the average Joe (probably true) and we want the world to be like debating here, or in a school debate where some impartial judge declares which side is right. Spoiler: there is no such judge in the real meat space America. At this point the courts, fact-based media, politicians, religious groups, and about any other putative authority is nosediving into the Fascism Sea or Ignorance Bay. I don't know what comes next.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
This. The economy and this. Most people don't watch the news or read about issues from fact-checked sources these days. They're spreading "facts" by word of mouth, and they are treating pundits, YouTube personalities, and random videos and memes on X and other media as equivalent to major media organizations which, while corporate and concentrated, do usually have primary reporting (on the ground), fact-checkers, editors, and ombudsmen. Many also don't see the world in terms of facts and ideas and logic; that's not a diss, it's perfectly natural to prioritize instincts and relationships in many cases. But it does mean that you can't say "here is some more climate data" or "actually, look at this graph on the economy" and get them to change sides.
So I think that we do a lot here where we consider ourselves more rational than the average Joe (probably true) and we want the world to be like debating here, or in a school debate where some impartial judge declares which side is right. Spoiler: there is no such judge in the real meat space America. At this point the courts, fact-based media, politicians, religious groups, and about any other putative authority is nosediving into the Fascism Sea or Ignorance Bay. I don't know what comes next.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:50 PM on November 5, 2024 [23 favorites]
Musk just tweeted out that "You are the media now" so it's going to only get worse in terms of "facts." And AI is going to compound things.
Going to step away so I can focus on how NJPW is really going to run Shota Umino vs ZSJ at Wrestle Kingdom.
Take care everyone.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
Going to step away so I can focus on how NJPW is really going to run Shota Umino vs ZSJ at Wrestle Kingdom.
Take care everyone.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:54 PM on November 5, 2024 [9 favorites]
I suppose it's just left to the EU to step up now. Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres.
posted by Marticus at 11:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 11:55 PM on November 5, 2024 [6 favorites]
If you are looking for blame, it goes to the party elders and Joe Biden. They should not have hidden his condition and he should have honored his pledge to be a 1 term president. If he had stepped aside earlier and the cover up had not given him cover, the Dems could have had a primary season that found a candidate who could stand the fire. Harris was put into an unfair role. Not her fault although I think if she had admitted that she would have done a few things differently the results might have been different/closer. This is Pelosi and Schumer's fault. The oldsters did not listen to the next generation
The only thing you can do now is hope he doesn't use his mandate to get revenge. And, start tomorrow to find the path to 2028.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
The only thing you can do now is hope he doesn't use his mandate to get revenge. And, start tomorrow to find the path to 2028.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:59 PM on November 5, 2024 [16 favorites]
well then.
we've had some fun, eh? I've been posting here ages and ages and seen some ups and downs. I've usually enjoyed all the different takes, people feeling hot and feeling sad, writing out their screeds or blasting out their feelings.
this time though - I'm not ok with any of it.
stay safe out there
posted by zenon at 12:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
we've had some fun, eh? I've been posting here ages and ages and seen some ups and downs. I've usually enjoyed all the different takes, people feeling hot and feeling sad, writing out their screeds or blasting out their feelings.
this time though - I'm not ok with any of it.
stay safe out there
posted by zenon at 12:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
There will, I am sure, be a lot of after-action analysis and general armchair quarterbacking, because that's what the Democratic Party does, and it will be interesting to see how some of the numbers really shake out. (I am personally very confused by the idea of a large stealth bloc of "Latinos for Trump" or "Black Men for Trump", but I suppose weirder things have happened.)
I'm fundamentally an optimist in that I don't think Harris was doomed on the basis of being non-White and female. It probably cost her a percentage point or two, and I'd bet somewhere there are (or soon will be) models that can nail the number down pretty finely, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the margins at work inside the key demographics.
IMO, Team Harris ran a philosophical, principles-focused campaign and probably got all the principles-based voters they were going to get to the polls, even with Trump as the threat for not showing. The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
What it seems much more likely happened is a combination of two things: (1) there are a shitload of voters in the US who do not fucking care about principles, but really fucking care about price inflation; and (2) they are not especially picky about the reasonableness or plausibility of any proposed solution, as long as it will make Regular Unleaded cheap again.
That's a tough thing to counter, if you have allowed yourself to become hemmed-in by ideological constructs like "objective reality" or "casually starting ethnic pogroms for short-term political gain is wrong", which the voting public seem at best ambivalent about.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
I'm fundamentally an optimist in that I don't think Harris was doomed on the basis of being non-White and female. It probably cost her a percentage point or two, and I'd bet somewhere there are (or soon will be) models that can nail the number down pretty finely, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the margins at work inside the key demographics.
IMO, Team Harris ran a philosophical, principles-focused campaign and probably got all the principles-based voters they were going to get to the polls, even with Trump as the threat for not showing. The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
What it seems much more likely happened is a combination of two things: (1) there are a shitload of voters in the US who do not fucking care about principles, but really fucking care about price inflation; and (2) they are not especially picky about the reasonableness or plausibility of any proposed solution, as long as it will make Regular Unleaded cheap again.
That's a tough thing to counter, if you have allowed yourself to become hemmed-in by ideological constructs like "objective reality" or "casually starting ethnic pogroms for short-term political gain is wrong", which the voting public seem at best ambivalent about.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on.
Theres definitely a shortage of understanding about this here. MeFi is built on thinking about things and reading more, learning things you didn’t know and sharing what you do know. That’s not how the world works for 90% of US citizens. I’m sorry if this sounds harsh but how many people are in shopping stores every day that can’t understand how to check a price or put something back where they got it from. The majority of people in the US are not capable or not willing to figure things we call basic and common sense.
posted by JakeEXTREME at 12:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Theres definitely a shortage of understanding about this here. MeFi is built on thinking about things and reading more, learning things you didn’t know and sharing what you do know. That’s not how the world works for 90% of US citizens. I’m sorry if this sounds harsh but how many people are in shopping stores every day that can’t understand how to check a price or put something back where they got it from. The majority of people in the US are not capable or not willing to figure things we call basic and common sense.
posted by JakeEXTREME at 12:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Oh, America. What have you done?
posted by Paul Slade at 12:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 12:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres.
Depends on how many of you move here, I guess.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Depends on how many of you move here, I guess.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I am personally very confused by the idea of a large stealth bloc of "Latinos for Trump" or "Black Men for Trump", but I suppose weirder things have happened.
1. idk if that's the cause of their votes, but as I always say on MeFi, "oppression can be intersectional, just as the oppressed are."
It's not like bigotry or prejudice are gone, far from it. But I think that as the country gets increasingly diverse, even oppression itself has to adapt to diverse audiences. Divide-and-conquer, oldest trick in the book.
2. On the flip side... I've also always suspected that Trump has gotten as far as he has because that he's ultimately of the class of American saints/gods besides veterans and firemen: he's a celebrity. He's an entertainer. He's on TV. People who are on TV and stay on TV (never mind the cancellation of The Apprentice) aren't actually racist. They aren't really dangerous. Otherwise, why are they allowed to be on TV? I think that his long-standing public persona and the fact that his ridiculous mannerisms gives him a sense of safety, even unconscious. "Oh, he doesn't mean that."
I figure the buffoonery aspect also explains Boris Johnson and the Ford brothers. Berlusconi as well. Heck, maybe even as far back as Mussolini?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
1. idk if that's the cause of their votes, but as I always say on MeFi, "oppression can be intersectional, just as the oppressed are."
It's not like bigotry or prejudice are gone, far from it. But I think that as the country gets increasingly diverse, even oppression itself has to adapt to diverse audiences. Divide-and-conquer, oldest trick in the book.
2. On the flip side... I've also always suspected that Trump has gotten as far as he has because that he's ultimately of the class of American saints/gods besides veterans and firemen: he's a celebrity. He's an entertainer. He's on TV. People who are on TV and stay on TV (never mind the cancellation of The Apprentice) aren't actually racist. They aren't really dangerous. Otherwise, why are they allowed to be on TV? I think that his long-standing public persona and the fact that his ridiculous mannerisms gives him a sense of safety, even unconscious. "Oh, he doesn't mean that."
I figure the buffoonery aspect also explains Boris Johnson and the Ford brothers. Berlusconi as well. Heck, maybe even as far back as Mussolini?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic
The US did not do austerity during the pandemic. Or after, though I guess we did bail out a few banks. That we have been less austere than others is likely a reason we have recovered better than many others. Unfortunately “the economy is pretty good compared to everywhere else, and it’s looking like we may kind of pull off a miracle as far as preventing it from getting much worse before it gets better again” seems to be a hard message to sell.
posted by atoxyl at 12:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
The US did not do austerity during the pandemic. Or after, though I guess we did bail out a few banks. That we have been less austere than others is likely a reason we have recovered better than many others. Unfortunately “the economy is pretty good compared to everywhere else, and it’s looking like we may kind of pull off a miracle as far as preventing it from getting much worse before it gets better again” seems to be a hard message to sell.
posted by atoxyl at 12:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Isn't Canada about to boot Trudeau after nine years of pretty boy centrist liberal fecklessness? The lamps are going out all over.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Web Developer (NOC 21234)
Registered Nurse (RN) (NOC 31301)
Mechanical Engineer (NOC 21301)
HR Manager (NOC 10011)
Accountant/Bookkeeper (11100)
Biomedical Engineer (NOC 21399)
Welder (NOC 72106)
Business Systems Analyst (21221)
https://immigration.ca/top-8-most-in-demand-canada-jobs-for-skilled-foreign-workers/
If you need more education to go into one of these fields, try to get it from a Canadian school since having gone to school in Canada is worth more points.
posted by Jacqueline at 12:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
I’m 39. My mother is 66. I now expect it will be at least another 12 years before either party picks a female candidate, but likely 20 or more years.
I feel I’ve let down my mother. She wanted to see a female president. We’ve failed our mothers and our daughters.
What a sad night.
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
posted by samthemander at 12:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [20 favorites]
I feel I’ve let down my mother. She wanted to see a female president. We’ve failed our mothers and our daughters.
What a sad night.
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
posted by samthemander at 12:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [20 favorites]
Well, in the midst of a sea of terrible news, here is a little good news from Missouri:
- Trump, new Republican Governor, Senator Josh Hawley, and etc (all the statewide races in this election) have all resoundingly won their elections, by margins ranging from 11% to 18%. The only mildly good news there is the Josh "Laughingstock" Hawley was at the bottom end of that heap, winning by only an 11% margin. This was all exactly as expected.
- Despite that - and an astonishingly duplicitous antiabortion campaign - the constitutional amendment legalizing abortion passed by a solid 4% margin.
- And the Minimum Wage/Guaranteed Sick Leave proposal won by better than 15%.
Amendment 3, the constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to reproductive care, is really good, thorough, and well written. The idiot state legislators are going to have a hell of a time trying to hem it in with nonsensical restrictions, as they were able to with Roe v. Wade. I'm sure they could have won this closer to 60/40 if they had made concessions towards more restrictions & "oversight" but they gambled and won - we've gone from having one of the absolute most restrictive abortion regimens in the nation, to one of the most sweeping guarantees of access to reproductive health services, and pretty sweeping restrictions on state legislators from trying to nickle-and-dime it into meaninglessness.
Prop A raises the minimum wage from the current $12.30/hour to $15/hour in 2025. Afterwards it will be increased annually by the CPI. Also it guarantees 5-7 sick days annually for most employees, with guaranteed rollover to a certain amount of hours. $15/hr puts us towards the higher end of minimum wage rates of any state and Missouri has a pretty low cost of living, so when you put those two together it looks pretty good.
My only concern with Prop A is that it is simply a state statute that can be changed by the state legislature any time they can round up the votes. I would imagine this will be one of their top priorities in the upcoming legislative session.
Amendment 3 (Reproductive Rights) is much, much harder for the legislature to change. They can only propose a different amendment that will then be put to a statewide vote. I can only imagine they will be working on the best Poison Pill amendment they can come up with - it's been a successful tactic before.
In sum, it is nothing short of AMAZING to me how people can vote in one party with a resounding majority, and then vote in some of the most important policies that party opposes - by an equally resounding margin.
One of my pet theories is that these citizen referenda act as a sort of pressure release valve, allowing parties to stay on the warpath all the time about some of these divisive social issues, while protecting the electorate from feeling the worst effects that would happen if they were able to actually enact the policies they endlessly talk about.
If we actually had to live with the reality that the Republicans wish they could put into place, everyone would be pretty miserable and we would vote the bums out. But we can use a referendum to blunt the worst of their policies, allowing us to bumble along only moderately unhappy - and them to avoid the blame they otherwise would receive.
posted by flug at 12:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
- Trump, new Republican Governor, Senator Josh Hawley, and etc (all the statewide races in this election) have all resoundingly won their elections, by margins ranging from 11% to 18%. The only mildly good news there is the Josh "Laughingstock" Hawley was at the bottom end of that heap, winning by only an 11% margin. This was all exactly as expected.
- Despite that - and an astonishingly duplicitous antiabortion campaign - the constitutional amendment legalizing abortion passed by a solid 4% margin.
- And the Minimum Wage/Guaranteed Sick Leave proposal won by better than 15%.
Amendment 3, the constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to reproductive care, is really good, thorough, and well written. The idiot state legislators are going to have a hell of a time trying to hem it in with nonsensical restrictions, as they were able to with Roe v. Wade. I'm sure they could have won this closer to 60/40 if they had made concessions towards more restrictions & "oversight" but they gambled and won - we've gone from having one of the absolute most restrictive abortion regimens in the nation, to one of the most sweeping guarantees of access to reproductive health services, and pretty sweeping restrictions on state legislators from trying to nickle-and-dime it into meaninglessness.
Prop A raises the minimum wage from the current $12.30/hour to $15/hour in 2025. Afterwards it will be increased annually by the CPI. Also it guarantees 5-7 sick days annually for most employees, with guaranteed rollover to a certain amount of hours. $15/hr puts us towards the higher end of minimum wage rates of any state and Missouri has a pretty low cost of living, so when you put those two together it looks pretty good.
My only concern with Prop A is that it is simply a state statute that can be changed by the state legislature any time they can round up the votes. I would imagine this will be one of their top priorities in the upcoming legislative session.
Amendment 3 (Reproductive Rights) is much, much harder for the legislature to change. They can only propose a different amendment that will then be put to a statewide vote. I can only imagine they will be working on the best Poison Pill amendment they can come up with - it's been a successful tactic before.
In sum, it is nothing short of AMAZING to me how people can vote in one party with a resounding majority, and then vote in some of the most important policies that party opposes - by an equally resounding margin.
One of my pet theories is that these citizen referenda act as a sort of pressure release valve, allowing parties to stay on the warpath all the time about some of these divisive social issues, while protecting the electorate from feeling the worst effects that would happen if they were able to actually enact the policies they endlessly talk about.
If we actually had to live with the reality that the Republicans wish they could put into place, everyone would be pretty miserable and we would vote the bums out. But we can use a referendum to blunt the worst of their policies, allowing us to bumble along only moderately unhappy - and them to avoid the blame they otherwise would receive.
posted by flug at 12:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
I mourned deeply in 2016 following the election more for the future we lost than the reality we got despite how shitty 2016-2020 were collectively for not just the US but also the world. I feel mournful again for this future that I wanted to materialize but I think I am more prepared this time. Give yourself time to mourn for that lost future and if your mental wellness requires you to disengage for sometime then do so. You don't have to immediately brush yourself off and get back into the fight. The next 4 years will be a slog with plenty of stuff to fight so don't begrudge yourself some time to process this especially if you've been in a sustained period of existential dread leading up to today. It'll be hard for you to look out for others if you don't take care of your own mental wellbeing.
Hopefully we can avoid the reductionism that "america is just not ready for a female president" because that would be a really shitty "lesson" to tell to the upcoming generation. I feel like we did that after 2016 and there will be rush to do that again in 2024. Understanding whether or not the US is too sexist to elect a female president right now isn't worth reinforcing a message that over 50% of the population is somehow less justified in seeking the highest office. I'd really prefer not to poke holes in the dreams of some Gen Z or Gen Alpha young woman because we have to rationalize why a substantial % of the American electorate chose to re-elect a terrible president.
posted by vuron at 12:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
Hopefully we can avoid the reductionism that "america is just not ready for a female president" because that would be a really shitty "lesson" to tell to the upcoming generation. I feel like we did that after 2016 and there will be rush to do that again in 2024. Understanding whether or not the US is too sexist to elect a female president right now isn't worth reinforcing a message that over 50% of the population is somehow less justified in seeking the highest office. I'd really prefer not to poke holes in the dreams of some Gen Z or Gen Alpha young woman because we have to rationalize why a substantial % of the American electorate chose to re-elect a terrible president.
posted by vuron at 12:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
My take would be that as much as we'd like voters to be voting on principles, for a lot of them it comes down to a vote for incumbency or anti-incumbency. If love to say that the Labour win here in Britain was down to people rejecting Tory hate, but it's more likely that they just thought the Tories were tired and we needed a change. Similarly, so many interviews I heard ahead of voting went something like, "I don't think Trump is a good person, but the past four years was tough and he's a change I guess?" Of course policies do matter and both you in the US and is here in the UK are in for a world of hurt for the next four years. The best we can hope for is that having given the world over to incompetent authoritarians, their incompetence and infighting get the better of them quickly and kill the reputation of this form of Republicanism for a generation. That's a pretty bleak hope, but it's what I'm holding onto this morning.
posted by nangua at 12:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by nangua at 12:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
> There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery.
meet your new masters of the universe...
-How Susquehanna's Jeff Yass mastered the options game[1,2]
-Ken Griffin's money machine: market maker Citadel Securities
-Why Elon Musk and His Silicon Valley Allies Now Want Trump to Win
posted by kliuless at 12:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
meet your new masters of the universe...
-How Susquehanna's Jeff Yass mastered the options game[1,2]
-Ken Griffin's money machine: market maker Citadel Securities
-Why Elon Musk and His Silicon Valley Allies Now Want Trump to Win
posted by kliuless at 12:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Racism is a powerful sentiment.
I just heard a well-off middle class guy from Georgia on the radio who explained he had voted for Trump because he was sure Trump could show force against our adversaries in Europe, The Middle East and in protecting Taiwan. Exactly the opposite of the real Trump. He also said that he was well aware that Trump has no economic strategy, and no relevant plans for improving the economy. His opinion was that the Harris plans were worse than the Trump not-plans. I'll call that racism.
(There was also something about this guy that reminded be of the British Leave voters -- like he had thought Harris would win, so he could put in a "protest" vote).
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class. Not just because of this one guy, but because he embodied everything that is happening right now.
posted by mumimor at 12:23 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
I just heard a well-off middle class guy from Georgia on the radio who explained he had voted for Trump because he was sure Trump could show force against our adversaries in Europe, The Middle East and in protecting Taiwan. Exactly the opposite of the real Trump. He also said that he was well aware that Trump has no economic strategy, and no relevant plans for improving the economy. His opinion was that the Harris plans were worse than the Trump not-plans. I'll call that racism.
(There was also something about this guy that reminded be of the British Leave voters -- like he had thought Harris would win, so he could put in a "protest" vote).
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class. Not just because of this one guy, but because he embodied everything that is happening right now.
posted by mumimor at 12:23 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
oh and from that last link...
Meet the Wall Street Bigwig Who Has Become Trump's Headhunter in Chief
posted by kliuless at 12:26 AM on November 6, 2024
Meet the Wall Street Bigwig Who Has Become Trump's Headhunter in Chief
posted by kliuless at 12:26 AM on November 6, 2024
Great Gig In The Sky Asteroid Strike always sums up my feelings in these moments.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
> If you are looking for blame, it goes to the party elders and Joe Biden. They should not have hidden his condition
If you look at the election results at the county level across the country, you see a pretty strong/solid shift red by that few percent pretty much everywhere - everywhere from TX & the Midwest east, anyway.
It is hard to imagine what words could have been said, or what campaign organization or get-out-the-vote effort could have been put together, that would counteract such a large and unidirectional wave.
People are mad.
(Now, they are mad mostly about aftereffects of Covid that were pretty much inevitable, and aftershocks of the first Trump presidency that were also inevitable - both of which Biden did what was humanly possible to clean up. But when people step into the voting booth, that doesn't matter. They are mad right now and so they vote out whoever is in office right now.)
So I am going to suggest we skip the self-recrimination and start moving ahead towards the next election. It is only two years away, and whatever asinine things Trump dreams up in the next two years is going to give us plenty of ammo to take the House and/or Senate back at that time, and hobble him up but good.
That is exactly what the Republicans do, and that is why they keep bouncing back and winning. We can do the same.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [51 favorites]
If you look at the election results at the county level across the country, you see a pretty strong/solid shift red by that few percent pretty much everywhere - everywhere from TX & the Midwest east, anyway.
It is hard to imagine what words could have been said, or what campaign organization or get-out-the-vote effort could have been put together, that would counteract such a large and unidirectional wave.
People are mad.
(Now, they are mad mostly about aftereffects of Covid that were pretty much inevitable, and aftershocks of the first Trump presidency that were also inevitable - both of which Biden did what was humanly possible to clean up. But when people step into the voting booth, that doesn't matter. They are mad right now and so they vote out whoever is in office right now.)
So I am going to suggest we skip the self-recrimination and start moving ahead towards the next election. It is only two years away, and whatever asinine things Trump dreams up in the next two years is going to give us plenty of ammo to take the House and/or Senate back at that time, and hobble him up but good.
That is exactly what the Republicans do, and that is why they keep bouncing back and winning. We can do the same.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [51 favorites]
Oh my god, I seriously don't believe this.
I'm so sorry, Americans.
And seriously, everyone who didn't vote Harris? Fuck you in Hell FOREVER.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [41 favorites]
I'm so sorry, Americans.
And seriously, everyone who didn't vote Harris? Fuck you in Hell FOREVER.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [41 favorites]
Bezos, Sulzberger, Soon-Shiong, McConnell, Graham et al. not looking quite so stupid now, are they? (sigh)
I guess for a lot of people, it really is like the Catch-22 Italian guy said, it's better to live on your feet than die on your knees. Just like winning is a value, so is self-preservation. Empathy is a nice-to-have, but only when it doesn't get in the way.
You know who the real winners were tonight? The beneficiaries of Citizens United. The campaign consultants and lawyers, and everybody selling political airtime. They just keep getting wealthier and wealthier. And they are certain to continue to play the game in a way that accelerates the campaign money 'arms race'.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
I guess for a lot of people, it really is like the Catch-22 Italian guy said, it's better to live on your feet than die on your knees. Just like winning is a value, so is self-preservation. Empathy is a nice-to-have, but only when it doesn't get in the way.
You know who the real winners were tonight? The beneficiaries of Citizens United. The campaign consultants and lawyers, and everybody selling political airtime. They just keep getting wealthier and wealthier. And they are certain to continue to play the game in a way that accelerates the campaign money 'arms race'.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
when the "every incumbent party when inflation got bad this year got voted out" phenomenon hit Japan it was an eyebrow-raising "huh" but I gotta say it is a lot less exciting when it is applying to the US
posted by DoctorFedora at 12:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by DoctorFedora at 12:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
This will only embolden Musk to become even more insufferable
posted by Apocryphon at 12:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
start moving ahead towards the next election
We need to make sure that a next election is a certainty, and not a faux Russian-style, petro-state style one
Republicans have a still - yet-to-be-imagined by Dems broadly - zeal for power. "I feel" they're closing the clamp on that, or at least trying
posted by JoeXIII007 at 12:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
We need to make sure that a next election is a certainty, and not a faux Russian-style, petro-state style one
Republicans have a still - yet-to-be-imagined by Dems broadly - zeal for power. "I feel" they're closing the clamp on that, or at least trying
posted by JoeXIII007 at 12:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
"And I'm laying out my winter clothes and wishing I was gone
Goin' home
Where the New York City winters aren't bleeding me
Leading me
Going home..."
Simon and Garfunkel. (Now elderly songwriters who were big in the 1970s)
As a UK expat in NY on this doleful dawn, I think Margaret Thatcher "British Conservative Party politician and prime minister (1979–90), Europe's first woman prime minister..." probably deserves a mention.
She wasn't remotely my cup of tea. But she was a successful female politician.
posted by Jody Tresidder at 12:37 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Goin' home
Where the New York City winters aren't bleeding me
Leading me
Going home..."
Simon and Garfunkel. (Now elderly songwriters who were big in the 1970s)
As a UK expat in NY on this doleful dawn, I think Margaret Thatcher "British Conservative Party politician and prime minister (1979–90), Europe's first woman prime minister..." probably deserves a mention.
She wasn't remotely my cup of tea. But she was a successful female politician.
posted by Jody Tresidder at 12:37 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Her success led us to this mess
posted by Apocryphon at 12:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
My results. Two good local candidates lost to crappy GOPers. 2 are still pending, 1 lost but to a non-horrible GOPer. One really terrific local candidate won in a tough race.
I’m really tired; this is a difficult night. For, you know, everybody.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
I’m really tired; this is a difficult night. For, you know, everybody.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
I'm sad and exhausted and afraid. And feeling very lonely tonight. That's all I got.
posted by humbug at 12:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
posted by humbug at 12:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
*heavy sigh*
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 12:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 12:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
I told all of you he was going to win. Ever since the Butler assassination attempt in July, I have thought: this is Trump's year. I never bought into the Harris hype. She is a truly weak candidate. And I think the Democratic party knew it from the start. I don't think she failed to pick Josh Shapiro for instance. I think he turned her down because he knew she wouldn't win.
Trump is track to win a true mandate, including the popular vote. Harris ollapsed across the entire board.
And they've updated Grover Cleveland's Wikipedia page :
Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, making Cleveland the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.
posted by fortitude25 at 12:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Trump is track to win a true mandate, including the popular vote. Harris ollapsed across the entire board.
And they've updated Grover Cleveland's Wikipedia page :
Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, making Cleveland the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.
posted by fortitude25 at 12:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Well, the "good" news is, the only reason you would need to vote ever again is symbolism/denial.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
> I'm sad and exhausted and afraid. And feeling very lonely tonight. That's all I got.Hugs?
posted by runcifex at 12:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Yep, it would've been nice not to have to play defense for the next 4 years but short of nuking the filibuster which I don't think Republicans will be willing to do just to lock in 2 years worth of gains I think even with a trifecta they are going to be somewhat constrained in their ability to get shit done because their caucus is a clownboat and no rational republican senator is going to want to run in 2026 if they nuke the filibuster and push through some egregious shit. Does that mean they absolutely won't push through some trash? No, but you can't use your office for self-enrichment if you pass a ton of really unpopular shit or nuke the economy.
Yes Trump will be able to replace Thomas and Alito with younger idiots which is going to suck but I think they know that in order to keep the SCOTUS at 9 members they can't nuke the filibuster because getting rid of it just enables Democrats so say fuck it and courtpack when the inevitable pendulum swing results in Republicans losing Congress and the Presidency.
Rather than being a polyanna viewpoint I think this is rooted in cynicism about why some people seek out positions like Senator. The House has true believers and while there are some mouthbreathing idiots like Tuberville in the Senate I think a large % of the current senate see maintaining the status quo as being ultimately beneficial for maintaining their personal power. I think even they realize that ACA has been in place long enough that fucking with it puts them at risk of a massive electoral backlash in 2026 for instance.
Same with a national abortion ban. People are willing to overlook Gilead experiments in Texas and Florida but I think they know after the various ballot initiatives that even in deeply conservative states continuing to agressively push for more restrictions is not a winning srategy in the long run. The horrors of what keeps happening in Texas and other states with excessive restrictions is not something someone in a vulnerable district or state wants to justify.
Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
posted by vuron at 12:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Yes Trump will be able to replace Thomas and Alito with younger idiots which is going to suck but I think they know that in order to keep the SCOTUS at 9 members they can't nuke the filibuster because getting rid of it just enables Democrats so say fuck it and courtpack when the inevitable pendulum swing results in Republicans losing Congress and the Presidency.
Rather than being a polyanna viewpoint I think this is rooted in cynicism about why some people seek out positions like Senator. The House has true believers and while there are some mouthbreathing idiots like Tuberville in the Senate I think a large % of the current senate see maintaining the status quo as being ultimately beneficial for maintaining their personal power. I think even they realize that ACA has been in place long enough that fucking with it puts them at risk of a massive electoral backlash in 2026 for instance.
Same with a national abortion ban. People are willing to overlook Gilead experiments in Texas and Florida but I think they know after the various ballot initiatives that even in deeply conservative states continuing to agressively push for more restrictions is not a winning srategy in the long run. The horrors of what keeps happening in Texas and other states with excessive restrictions is not something someone in a vulnerable district or state wants to justify.
Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
posted by vuron at 12:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Many, many hugs
posted by Fenriss at 12:56 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 12:56 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Well... Americans have decided conclusively that in response to global inflation brought on by a poor response to the pandemic and trade wars between the US and China, the only solution is to re-elect the man who spearheaded the poor US response to COVID and initiated the tariffs against China that started the trade war.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [40 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [40 favorites]
>Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
The fact that Trump openly says that he intends to dig and burn a lot of oil is both probably popular (short term cheaper prices) and the externalities of that aren't front loaded. It is, however, civilizationally catastopic.
posted by jaduncan at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
The fact that Trump openly says that he intends to dig and burn a lot of oil is both probably popular (short term cheaper prices) and the externalities of that aren't front loaded. It is, however, civilizationally catastopic.
posted by jaduncan at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
Look, I'm user 216 around here and I haven't been here much for years but I will be now. Not time to give up. Time for mutual aid.
posted by Fenriss at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [76 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [76 favorites]
Yep, it would've been nice not to have to play defense for the next 4 years but short of nuking the filibuster which I don't think Republicans will be willing to do just to lock in 2 years worth of gains I think even with a trifecta they are going to be somewhat constrained in their ability to get shit done
Half the problem is not what Republicans could do, it’s what we as a country desperately NEED to do that won’t get done. We are lurching toward multifaceted crises in the environment, the economy, and international relations. The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
posted by Room 101 at 12:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
Half the problem is not what Republicans could do, it’s what we as a country desperately NEED to do that won’t get done. We are lurching toward multifaceted crises in the environment, the economy, and international relations. The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
posted by Room 101 at 12:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
We rally. We feed each other and we organize.
posted by Fenriss at 1:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 1:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
What a fucking nightmare. Too many people are just too fucking stupid! I don't wanna hear another masturbatory analysis from so called experts that ignores that obvious simple truth. Oh let's write more books about the dangers of rising fascism everywhere, ponder all the causes and conditions, spend thousands millions of words to overthink what a child could tell you, what's staring us in the face and not just in the US. Too many people are just too fucking stupid and if you feed them enough of a combination of disinformation, cult of personality, religious fundamentalism, racism and misogyny, they will fucking swallow it whole and beg for more. It's the stupidity, stupid.
Sorry but I'm furious, such a fucking disappointment, I was hoping for once stupidity could lose but no, it never does
posted by bitteschoen at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [60 favorites]
Sorry but I'm furious, such a fucking disappointment, I was hoping for once stupidity could lose but no, it never does
posted by bitteschoen at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [60 favorites]
We didn't just lose in a way that will sour the next four years. We lost in a way/at a time where the opposition plans to rewrite the laws and government to make their gains permanent.
We're going to be the bigger version of Hungary now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [42 favorites]
We're going to be the bigger version of Hungary now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [42 favorites]
I am so afraid. What's the point, man.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
What the hell?!
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Tomorrow morning, the presumptive next president of the United States is going to go on live TV and speak 45-85 minutes of demented, racist, sexist gibberish.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
I want to know which of my friends and coworkers did a "vote of good conscience" so I can move them out of my life. I care deeply about Israel/Palestine. So deeply, in fact, that I am waking up daily and praying about it. But I voted for Harris because certain things have to be done in sequence in order for change to occur. This is bad change. Bad. How fucking dare they.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
Looking at the size of the voting gap, much as I wish it were otherwise, I would agree. Even if you add all the Harris votes *and* all the protest/leftist votes, you’re *still* about a percentage point short in the battleground states. Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia by 50.8%. The leftists couldn’t have saved this. Even if Harris had turned on Gaza, it wouldn’t have gotten her two full percentage points of the vote. This was an election that turned on economic issues.
Some of us have been ringing the alarm bell for a while about how angry people are about how this economy is working *for them*. Someone said upthread, very accurately, that the Democrats this year offered small c conservativism, rather than fighting populism with populism. This would have been the year to talk price controls, to lower gas taxes and find other ways of paying for environmental initiatives. Maybe going after corporations. But it didn’t happen. And angry people went to the polls and voted for fascism. Because that’s what they do when they don’t have a real socialist option as an alternative.
posted by corb at 1:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
Looking at the size of the voting gap, much as I wish it were otherwise, I would agree. Even if you add all the Harris votes *and* all the protest/leftist votes, you’re *still* about a percentage point short in the battleground states. Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia by 50.8%. The leftists couldn’t have saved this. Even if Harris had turned on Gaza, it wouldn’t have gotten her two full percentage points of the vote. This was an election that turned on economic issues.
Some of us have been ringing the alarm bell for a while about how angry people are about how this economy is working *for them*. Someone said upthread, very accurately, that the Democrats this year offered small c conservativism, rather than fighting populism with populism. This would have been the year to talk price controls, to lower gas taxes and find other ways of paying for environmental initiatives. Maybe going after corporations. But it didn’t happen. And angry people went to the polls and voted for fascism. Because that’s what they do when they don’t have a real socialist option as an alternative.
posted by corb at 1:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
Maybe the only "good" news is that protest votes against Harris last because of the Biden administration's failings on Gaza do not seem to have been the deciding factor.
Trump won by wider margins than that would have accounted for.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Trump won by wider margins than that would have accounted for.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
Yes, his is one of the things that makes me so anxious. This time around, the hard right will be ready from day one to utterly destroy the civil service from within; they have been preparing since the end of Trump’s first term, and it’s all set out in Project 2025 and Agenda 47. A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions, and they will be a cancer that will be incredibly difficult to cure. The civil service will be politicized and trust will deteriorate in a way that will be hard to recover from.
posted by odin53 at 1:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
Yes, his is one of the things that makes me so anxious. This time around, the hard right will be ready from day one to utterly destroy the civil service from within; they have been preparing since the end of Trump’s first term, and it’s all set out in Project 2025 and Agenda 47. A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions, and they will be a cancer that will be incredibly difficult to cure. The civil service will be politicized and trust will deteriorate in a way that will be hard to recover from.
posted by odin53 at 1:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
So wait, do leftists' votes matter or not? I'm confused. Let's pick one and stick with it.
posted by ftrtts at 1:23 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by ftrtts at 1:23 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Among the blame we're piling on the Democratic Party needs to be the years of gaslighting we were subjected to about the state of Biden's health. We were denied a proper primary process this year, which would have been the opportunity to test balloon messaging and policy proposals, as well as giving the candidate a stronger mandate, being selected in a democratic process. I thought Harris was ultimately a fine mainstream candidate, but the lack of vision she was able to communicate would have, I imagine, been remedied if she'd had to start making her case in February rather than July.
posted by St. Oops at 1:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 1:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
So wait, do leftists' votes matter or not? I'm confused. Let's pick one and stick with it.
Dipshits' voted mattered. That was all, really.
The election seems to have been decided not by true believers from either side, but by the kind of people who awake from a current events coma every four years to flip the switch between D & R based on their current satisfaction with their current income/costs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [48 favorites]
Dipshits' voted mattered. That was all, really.
The election seems to have been decided not by true believers from either side, but by the kind of people who awake from a current events coma every four years to flip the switch between D & R based on their current satisfaction with their current income/costs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [48 favorites]
>A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions
Heritage staffed the Coalition Provisional Authority too, which is why it went so great for us 2003-2006.
posted by torokunai at 1:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Heritage staffed the Coalition Provisional Authority too, which is why it went so great for us 2003-2006.
posted by torokunai at 1:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class.
As a white member of the working class myself, I'm not going to pretend there aren't too damn many Trump supporters in my tribe (and any number is too goddamn many) but I also have vanishingly little patience with anyone whose first instinct is to scapegoat us for the bigotry, selfishness, spitefulness and shortsightedness that more properly can be laid at the feet of all sorts of white people up and down the socioeconomic ladder.
And, make no mistake, scapegoating is absolutely what the "economic anxiety" wheeze is really about.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
As a white member of the working class myself, I'm not going to pretend there aren't too damn many Trump supporters in my tribe (and any number is too goddamn many) but I also have vanishingly little patience with anyone whose first instinct is to scapegoat us for the bigotry, selfishness, spitefulness and shortsightedness that more properly can be laid at the feet of all sorts of white people up and down the socioeconomic ladder.
And, make no mistake, scapegoating is absolutely what the "economic anxiety" wheeze is really about.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
I need to write this somewhere, and it may as well be here where I've been present and accounted for during many past elections and world events :
This fucking hurts.
Y'all go ahead and argue about who dropped what ball and how and where and all that. But I just ... don't have enough gin to soothe how much this fucking hurts, and how much fighting we'll need to do for these next (at fucking least) four years.
We could've and should've been done with this fucking clown so long ago, and now we'll have to hear his incessant yammering for god knows how long and it's just too much to process right now.
posted by revmitcz at 1:27 AM on November 6, 2024 [30 favorites]
This fucking hurts.
Y'all go ahead and argue about who dropped what ball and how and where and all that. But I just ... don't have enough gin to soothe how much this fucking hurts, and how much fighting we'll need to do for these next (at fucking least) four years.
We could've and should've been done with this fucking clown so long ago, and now we'll have to hear his incessant yammering for god knows how long and it's just too much to process right now.
posted by revmitcz at 1:27 AM on November 6, 2024 [30 favorites]
My heart hurts for you all. Sending hugs and hope and strength.
posted by Nieshka at 1:28 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by Nieshka at 1:28 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
"[Margaret Thatcher's] success led us to this mess'
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
posted by Jody Tresidder at 1:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
posted by Jody Tresidder at 1:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
This sucks but America will survive. I have a feeling Trump is going to last about a year before his masters yank him out. The press is now going to put him under a microscope to sell ink. He's going to do and say some truly insane shit and, as was probably the plan all along, they will 25th him and put Vance in. Buckle up for the most embarrassing, insane shit you have ever seen. And give absolutely no quarter to all the high profile people who supported this man for the rest of their lives. You bought it, you own it. It is really amazing how many absolutely stupid people there are in this country who all just got hoodwinked by alternative facts.
posted by jasondigitized at 1:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 1:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
Wow, do I have bad news for you if you think that Trump being 25th-ed and replaced with Vance would stop the madness.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [41 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [41 favorites]
Accusations are confessions. He preemptively accused the Democrats of "massive cheating". Very curious about what steps were taken by his coalition of voters, elected and appointed officials, billionaires, hate groups, and foreign powers, to bend the election towards this result.
posted by otherchaz at 1:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 1:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
This's what you wanted, right? Not what I wanted, not what any of *us* wanted, but this's what we collectively wanted, clearly. Not much that could've been done differently from what I can see at this moment; at least nothing that would've mattered in the electoral field. So... fuck it. I'll statistically be fine, those I love'll be fucked. But that's what we wanted. And there's nothing I could've done otherwise.
Hope you get what you wanted, good and hard. See those of you who's left on the other side.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Hope you get what you wanted, good and hard. See those of you who's left on the other side.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
If there is any good news, it's that nothing mattered. Not one fucking thing.
Trump could be convicted of crimes, found liable for sexual assault, shown to be consistently lying and revealed to be almost certainly demented and it didn't matter.
Harris could be called out for being part of an administration that was failing on Gaza and it didn't matter.
You could have spent months knocking on doors, making intelligent arguments to your friends and neighbors, and it didn't matter.
All that mattered was that the economy was seen as "definitely could be better" so the meatheads flipped from D to R.
Nothing else, not even the promised demolition of our existing Democracy, mattered.
Cereal costs too much, gas costs too much, rent costs too much, so the ruling party had to be changed.
That was it.
Nothing else mattered.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
Trump could be convicted of crimes, found liable for sexual assault, shown to be consistently lying and revealed to be almost certainly demented and it didn't matter.
Harris could be called out for being part of an administration that was failing on Gaza and it didn't matter.
You could have spent months knocking on doors, making intelligent arguments to your friends and neighbors, and it didn't matter.
All that mattered was that the economy was seen as "definitely could be better" so the meatheads flipped from D to R.
Nothing else, not even the promised demolition of our existing Democracy, mattered.
Cereal costs too much, gas costs too much, rent costs too much, so the ruling party had to be changed.
That was it.
Nothing else mattered.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
On another web forum, members are being encouraged to shave their beards into goatees to get into the spirit of this timeline.
posted by zaixfeep at 1:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by zaixfeep at 1:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Harris was fine it was a decent campaign, she would have been a good president.
It’s just, there are a lot more stupid people than you think there are, a lot more bigots, a lot more selfish people. Same everywhere. When the billionaires Jack up prices stupid people get even stupider. They have no time to think or energy to care. And they are angry, which makes them even stupider, bigoted, selfish.
A person can be smart, but people in aggregate are just mean spirited monkeys, hooting and throwing shit at things they don’t understand. Crocodiles have been around for 200 million years. They love to eat careless monkeys. Anyway all this fuss is just a blip between mass extinction events and oop, there’s one on the way now.
Going forward, I have to pet my cats. Do my exercise. Keep my house clean. Take care of myself and my people. Enforce boundaries that keep me safe and healthy.
This is probably going to happen in Canada too.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
It’s just, there are a lot more stupid people than you think there are, a lot more bigots, a lot more selfish people. Same everywhere. When the billionaires Jack up prices stupid people get even stupider. They have no time to think or energy to care. And they are angry, which makes them even stupider, bigoted, selfish.
A person can be smart, but people in aggregate are just mean spirited monkeys, hooting and throwing shit at things they don’t understand. Crocodiles have been around for 200 million years. They love to eat careless monkeys. Anyway all this fuss is just a blip between mass extinction events and oop, there’s one on the way now.
Going forward, I have to pet my cats. Do my exercise. Keep my house clean. Take care of myself and my people. Enforce boundaries that keep me safe and healthy.
This is probably going to happen in Canada too.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
I remember well the election night in 2016, where I started feeling physically ill.
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out. I bet there are a lot of calls like this... and also people *not* calling family members, dreading their votes.
Hard to write now between fear and exhaustion.
posted by doctornemo at 1:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out. I bet there are a lot of calls like this... and also people *not* calling family members, dreading their votes.
Hard to write now between fear and exhaustion.
posted by doctornemo at 1:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Fuck.
I’m bouncing between depressed and mad as hell. Why the hell can’t we get it right on this shit?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
I’m bouncing between depressed and mad as hell. Why the hell can’t we get it right on this shit?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
Well, you do have to give it to JD Vance who presumably had to work hard to convince his Indian wife that signing on with the insane, racist, anti-inmigrant man was a good idea. She's now 6-36 months away from being First Lady of the United States, so his gamble and her signing on for it, looks quite likely to pay off.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
"[Margaret Thatcher's] success led us to this mess'
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
I've long held that it's both Thatcherism and Reaganism. The proliferation of neoliberal economics, "user pays", small government, union busting, "trickle down" and everything else that gutted the working and middle classes and gave untold wealth to the elite.
Demagogues always surface when people are under economic stress and are angry as a result.
But the demagogues don't reform the system that created the structural imbalances, because they benefit from it.
Instead of course, it's convenient scapegoats instead of meaningful reform.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
I've long held that it's both Thatcherism and Reaganism. The proliferation of neoliberal economics, "user pays", small government, union busting, "trickle down" and everything else that gutted the working and middle classes and gave untold wealth to the elite.
Demagogues always surface when people are under economic stress and are angry as a result.
But the demagogues don't reform the system that created the structural imbalances, because they benefit from it.
Instead of course, it's convenient scapegoats instead of meaningful reform.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
I'm gratified, sort of, that this is shaping up to be just a plain old... win. It doesn't look like protest votes were enough to matter anywhere.
Just... America picked Trump, plain and simple. Together and collectively we did this, we chose this, and we deserve everything that's coming.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Just... America picked Trump, plain and simple. Together and collectively we did this, we chose this, and we deserve everything that's coming.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
It was snowing hard here in Utah last night and my wife is traveling for work, so my two young kids and I fell asleep in our bed talking about supernovas and black holes and prehistoric animals and how awesomely huge the universe is. They fell asleep warm and safe and curious about how life works. We fell asleep before all this.
I don’t know what to tell them in the morning. They care about the environment and their friends, and they know enough about why their mom and dad were so scared of this result, and how it impacts the entire world. Will they notice I am taking signs down and removing stickers from the car because I genuinely fear gloating retribution will start here in a red state?
The snow has stopped and the stars are out. They get to be safe and warm and unaware for a few more hours. I hope they are dreaming about something wonderful. I hope i can find the right words to tell them in the morning.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
I don’t know what to tell them in the morning. They care about the environment and their friends, and they know enough about why their mom and dad were so scared of this result, and how it impacts the entire world. Will they notice I am taking signs down and removing stickers from the car because I genuinely fear gloating retribution will start here in a red state?
The snow has stopped and the stars are out. They get to be safe and warm and unaware for a few more hours. I hope they are dreaming about something wonderful. I hope i can find the right words to tell them in the morning.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
As of 0800 GMT, Associated Press still hasn't called the race because Harris still has a path to victory through Michigan and Wisconsin. Hi, my name is otherchaz and I am a hope-ium addict.
posted by otherchaz at 2:05 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 2:05 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
If a president can’t be prosecuted, exactly what stops Vance from pushing Trump down a flight of stairs come the end of January?
posted by MarchHare at 2:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by MarchHare at 2:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
@otherchaz, Madison turnout blew away every previous record, if that helps at all.
Love to you. Love to all of us. It's all I have to give.
posted by humbug at 2:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Love to you. Love to all of us. It's all I have to give.
posted by humbug at 2:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Gods love you, otherchaz. Me too.
posted by Fenriss at 2:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 2:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
I think the part that is frustrating me at this particular minute, is that this means there is a 99.99% chance that the worst, most destructive rich asshole of our lifetimes will live out the rest of his days virtually free of meaningful comeuppance. He will go to his grave eating well-done steaks covered in ketchup and none of the shit he has done will ever blow back on him in any real way.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
I commit here and now to purchasing otherchaz a drink of their choice via the magic of delivery services if their faith is rewarded and Harris pulls this off.
posted by corb at 2:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by corb at 2:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
I’m mad and depressed because there seemed to be several paths for Harris to win and they just all collapsed? What the fuck, how did it go so wrong?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 2:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 2:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
Uh, DirtyOldTown, he doesn't have loved ones.
Aside from the one in his own skin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Aside from the one in his own skin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Fair. But "surrounded by sycophants and minions that he is satisfied love him" projects to be no less satisfying, so whatever.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I need to log off because this is all just too much. My heart breaks for America, and the word. And I will never, ever, forgive the people who had a chance to vote to stop this from happening, and squandered it. Traitors to humanity.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
I will be so happy if Michigan and Wisconsin go for us. Thank you for the hopium, otherchaz!
posted by ichomp at 2:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 2:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
So has everyone made a plan for where they are fleeing?
We're going to Romania. It's not a progressive place but the economic dividing line where "if you have X amount of money, shit never sticks to you" is far, far lower. It will probably take three to five years to get there, even so. (Sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
We're going to Romania. It's not a progressive place but the economic dividing line where "if you have X amount of money, shit never sticks to you" is far, far lower. It will probably take three to five years to get there, even so. (Sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
It's going to need more than that alas. Alaska has the 3 votes Trump needs, it's a solid red state and he's 15 points ahead in the count so far, and several have already called it for Trump already. Harris would need to win Alaska and all remaining swing states, which is still mathematically possible... but not exactly likely.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres
And won't be much help in any case. I'm calling it now: the next Australian Government will be led by this Trumpian potato.
Misogyny is unlikely to be a factor unless Labor persuades Plibersek to run against her better judgement, but Australian racism and wilful ignorance is world class - certainly the equal of anything the US has to offer - and the COVID inflation bubble has affected us the same way it's affected everyone else. Those factors should be more than enough to get our local face eating leopards over the line.
posted by flabdablet at 2:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
And won't be much help in any case. I'm calling it now: the next Australian Government will be led by this Trumpian potato.
Misogyny is unlikely to be a factor unless Labor persuades Plibersek to run against her better judgement, but Australian racism and wilful ignorance is world class - certainly the equal of anything the US has to offer - and the COVID inflation bubble has affected us the same way it's affected everyone else. Those factors should be more than enough to get our local face eating leopards over the line.
posted by flabdablet at 2:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
It hurts, it hurts so much to see this, but we didn't make it easy for him last time and we won't make it easy for him this time either.
I slept horribly and won't get anything done today, but I'm going to try and get outside and remember that the world has not ended yet and I'm still alive to fight.
posted by Art_Pot at 2:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
I slept horribly and won't get anything done today, but I'm going to try and get outside and remember that the world has not ended yet and I'm still alive to fight.
posted by Art_Pot at 2:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
... still and all - not all the votes have been counted.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 2:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
MSNBC has called Wisconsin and thus the election for Trump. God help us all.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
posted by bootlegpop at 2:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
posted by bootlegpop at 2:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
> Someone please just tell me how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter when she wakes up in a few hours.
maybe octavia butler can help...
Parable of the Sower - "The newly elected radical, authoritarian President Donner loosens labor protections, creating a rise in company towns owned by foreign businesses."
"They have no power to improve their lives, but they have the power to make others... miserable."
Building Diverse Bookshelves
posted by kliuless at 2:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [23 favorites]
maybe octavia butler can help...
Parable of the Sower - "The newly elected radical, authoritarian President Donner loosens labor protections, creating a rise in company towns owned by foreign businesses."
Building Diverse Bookshelves
While Lauren has rejected her Baptist pastor father’s faith in a personal God, she admires his unfaltering commitment to keeping those in their gated community safe. She learns from him, at an early age, that though not everyone may always get along, when it comes down to it, a community will work together to protect its members. And though while on her own, she is skeptical and wary of others, she displays a preternatural ability to locate and draw to her those who are good and hard-working and solid.Octavia Butler's Prescient Vision
Another theme that quickly emerges is the adverse effects of hierarchy and its perpetuation by those who benefit from it...
So much of the novel is a retelling and renaissance of a faith that doesn’t sit idly by, shrugging and saying, “Who can tell the will of God?” Instead, Lauren’s Earthseed faith is one of sweat and toil and the dignity of honest people creating the future they want to see, working with Change to move forward.
It’s eerie how very easily Butler’s idea of 2024 and on could very well become a reality. In a political climate where America’s current president wants to deregulate environmental measures and corporate law, whose administration is chock full of science deniers and those who have profited off the work of others, and whose campaign slogan was “Make America Great Again,” Parable of the Sower reads less like fiction and more like a prophecy, a cautionary tale for our time.
The sequel, “Parable of the Talents,” published in 1998, begins in 2032. By then, various forms of indentured servitude and slavery are common, facilitated by high-tech slave collars. The oppression of women has become extreme; those who express their opinion, “nags,” might have their tongues cut out. People are addicted not only to designer drugs but also to “dream masks,” which generate virtual fantasies as guided dreams, allowing wearers to submerge themselves in simpler, happier lives. News comes in the form of disks or “news bullets,” which “purport to tell us all we need to know in flashy pictures and quick, witty, verbal one-two punches. Twenty-five or thirty words are supposed to be enough in a news bullet to explain either a war or an unusual set of Christmas lights.” The Donner Administration has written off science, but a more immediate threat lurks: a violent movement is being whipped up by a new Presidential candidate, Andrew Steele Jarret, a Texas senator and religious zealot who is running on a platform to “make American great again.”Octavia Butler's Prophecy: "her vision for the future isn't too far off from where we are right now."
posted by kliuless at 2:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [23 favorites]
we didn't make it easy for him last time and we won't make it easy for him this time either.
I mean, yeah, but last time, he did a lot of damage after winning more or less accidentally and with only wary support from his own side. This time, that side has an elaborate plan for how to capitalize on every iota of this and make their gains permanent.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
I mean, yeah, but last time, he did a lot of damage after winning more or less accidentally and with only wary support from his own side. This time, that side has an elaborate plan for how to capitalize on every iota of this and make their gains permanent.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
Well: 'The Democratic Party’s Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – the first two Muslim women to serve in the United States Congress – have won re-election to the US House of Representatives.'
posted by cendawanita at 2:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 2:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
Such sensible voices some of us will have shouting on their behalves while we all drown!
God damn, sorry. I am not in a good place right now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
God damn, sorry. I am not in a good place right now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
Well, that's gonna wrap it up for America, I'm afraid. Good luck, the rest of the planet. I hope we don't take you down with us.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
I remember well the election night in 2016, where I started feeling physically ill.
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out.
On election night 2016, I was staying in Chinatown DC for work, because we were about to launch a satellite. I remember going to the front of the White House in the morning, and grieving, looking at the place through the fences. A woman there asked me to take her picture, but she said, "Don't ask me to smile, because I'm too sad."
As for my children, I just messaged with my youngest, who is in a bomb shelter, but apparently safe. The world is really messed up right now.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 2:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out.
On election night 2016, I was staying in Chinatown DC for work, because we were about to launch a satellite. I remember going to the front of the White House in the morning, and grieving, looking at the place through the fences. A woman there asked me to take her picture, but she said, "Don't ask me to smile, because I'm too sad."
As for my children, I just messaged with my youngest, who is in a bomb shelter, but apparently safe. The world is really messed up right now.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 2:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
This sucks but America will survive.
That's cool but I might not (and I'm not sure it's true either)
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [23 favorites]
That's cool but I might not (and I'm not sure it's true either)
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [23 favorites]
I have drank all of the wine in the house, eaten most of the remaining pizza, and added an appalling amount of Ben & Jerry's on top. I should probably go to sleep.
Thanks for staying up, y'all. I wish it hadn't been for... this.
Oh, no.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Thanks for staying up, y'all. I wish it hadn't been for... this.
Oh, no.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Mefites piled onto me a week ago when I said this election was about inflation because elections are about whatever moves the dial. Glad to see this thread acknowledging that reality.
posted by MattD at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by MattD at 2:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Ah, yes, because being right is the most important thing right now.
posted by Pendragon at 2:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 2:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
Right? I don't know what would have beaten Trump this time around, but I don't think we need to be praising the Dems for their flawless execution of a strategy that thoroughly failed.
Trump is a senile, weird, ugly, incoherent old man, a convicted felon who was 3 weeks away from very likely being sentenced to prison, a fraudster, a rapist, has already spent four years in office not actually doing the damn job, and has announced his intention to do all sorts of repugnant shit.
A fucking department store mannequin should have been able to defeat him.
The fact that Harris -- who would have been at least a decent President -- could not, doesn't say anything good about American voters. Honestly, I think a lot of it comes down to sexism. Competent female candidate vs. a candidate that has NOTHING going for him except for appealing to peoples' worst bigotries. The US just failed a test of decency, I think.
posted by Foosnark at 2:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
Right? I don't know what would have beaten Trump this time around, but I don't think we need to be praising the Dems for their flawless execution of a strategy that thoroughly failed.
Trump is a senile, weird, ugly, incoherent old man, a convicted felon who was 3 weeks away from very likely being sentenced to prison, a fraudster, a rapist, has already spent four years in office not actually doing the damn job, and has announced his intention to do all sorts of repugnant shit.
A fucking department store mannequin should have been able to defeat him.
The fact that Harris -- who would have been at least a decent President -- could not, doesn't say anything good about American voters. Honestly, I think a lot of it comes down to sexism. Competent female candidate vs. a candidate that has NOTHING going for him except for appealing to peoples' worst bigotries. The US just failed a test of decency, I think.
posted by Foosnark at 2:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
It's genuinely difficult for those of us who habitually pay attention to politics and world affairs to make correct predictions about the behaviour of the overwhelming majority of human beings who do neither of those things.
posted by flabdablet at 2:54 AM on November 6, 2024 [46 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 2:54 AM on November 6, 2024 [46 favorites]
I’m mad and depressed because there seemed to be several paths for Harris to win and they just all collapsed? What the fuck, how did it go so wrong?!
I remember the same feeling from the Brexit vote, when I could see the literal future of my country collapsing in front of me.
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. For me in the UK in 2016, it was a real shock just how many there were and how proud of it; I think perhaps it's less of a shock in the USA.
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. And there are a *lot* of these people. They don't vote on policies; They voted for Brexit, then the tories, then turned round and voted for Labour in the UK who had literally no policies bar 'Change' because they were fed up with the incumbents and inflation.
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc - absolute sociopaths with the power to twist groups a) and b) into voting very much against their own interests in order to make group c) wealthier, and it's been going on for decades.
I'm sad today for the trans people, disabled people, immigrants, women of child-bearing age who just got thrown under the bus. That so many would vote for their own impoverishment because it puts one in the eye of people they hate, or genuinely are too stupid to understand Trump will oversee a huge wealth transfer from them to the rich. I'm sad for the people of Ukraine who are going to be handed over to Putin. I'm sad for the people of Gaza who are never going to get to go home. And I just can't even think about the so, so many that are going to die, in the groups above and more, and in the future from catastrophic climate change that is going to be made even worse.
Look out for your friends; you're going to need each other. If you have to flee to save yourself, genuinely good luck. And for those that can still find some level of hope for a brighter future, I'm glad someone can because all I can see is the cost to the world today is very, very high.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
I remember the same feeling from the Brexit vote, when I could see the literal future of my country collapsing in front of me.
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. For me in the UK in 2016, it was a real shock just how many there were and how proud of it; I think perhaps it's less of a shock in the USA.
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. And there are a *lot* of these people. They don't vote on policies; They voted for Brexit, then the tories, then turned round and voted for Labour in the UK who had literally no policies bar 'Change' because they were fed up with the incumbents and inflation.
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc - absolute sociopaths with the power to twist groups a) and b) into voting very much against their own interests in order to make group c) wealthier, and it's been going on for decades.
I'm sad today for the trans people, disabled people, immigrants, women of child-bearing age who just got thrown under the bus. That so many would vote for their own impoverishment because it puts one in the eye of people they hate, or genuinely are too stupid to understand Trump will oversee a huge wealth transfer from them to the rich. I'm sad for the people of Ukraine who are going to be handed over to Putin. I'm sad for the people of Gaza who are never going to get to go home. And I just can't even think about the so, so many that are going to die, in the groups above and more, and in the future from catastrophic climate change that is going to be made even worse.
Look out for your friends; you're going to need each other. If you have to flee to save yourself, genuinely good luck. And for those that can still find some level of hope for a brighter future, I'm glad someone can because all I can see is the cost to the world today is very, very high.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
I think the takeaway is that not one iota of either the Dem campaign, as it was run, or the GOP campaign, as it was misrun, was enough to stop the momentum of dipshits deciding "Things could be better! Must. Flip. Switch."
This was happening at a scale far, far beyond any where strategizing could have overcome it. There was no special sauce to bring over an extra 1% that would have overcome the apparent 3% who felt this way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [33 favorites]
I think the takeaway is that not one iota of either the Dem campaign, as it was run, or the GOP campaign, as it was misrun, was enough to stop the momentum of dipshits deciding "Things could be better! Must. Flip. Switch."
This was happening at a scale far, far beyond any where strategizing could have overcome it. There was no special sauce to bring over an extra 1% that would have overcome the apparent 3% who felt this way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [33 favorites]
i refuse to accept this until the states ratify their votes. it took days to count early/mail votes in 2020 and those eventual flipped several states giving Biden the win. it's hard to find numbers for all of the states but the gap in PA is 170k and the 2020 early/mail splits were several hundred thousand in favor of the Dems.
I'm not sure why this time around, the media is so ready to call the swing states when there's been record early/mail voting. i mean i know why... the media is terrible. but still, there's possibility.
posted by kokaku at 3:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure why this time around, the media is so ready to call the swing states when there's been record early/mail voting. i mean i know why... the media is terrible. but still, there's possibility.
posted by kokaku at 3:02 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
WAIT. Do we have official elections results yet?
Has anyone conceded?
posted by edithkeeler at 3:04 AM on November 6, 2024
Has anyone conceded?
posted by edithkeeler at 3:04 AM on November 6, 2024
no. Harris has not conceded and the states are not done counting.
i think people are extrapolating? but i don't have faith the news are basing their calls on real data and property accounting for early/mail voting.
posted by kokaku at 3:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
i think people are extrapolating? but i don't have faith the news are basing their calls on real data and property accounting for early/mail voting.
posted by kokaku at 3:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. (snip)
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. (snip)
I'm living in Kentucky for past three years and this is what I see and observe about many people I cross paths with here. The lack of empathy in particular is profound.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
I think a lot about this quote lately:
posted by ftrtts at 3:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
Did you ever stop to think that you can't leave for your job in the morning without being dependent on most of the world? You get up in the morning and go to the bathroom and reach over for the sponge, and that's handed to you by a Pacific Islander. You reach for a bar of soap, and that's given to you at the hands of a Frenchman. And then you go into the kitchen to drink your coffee for the morning, and that's poured into your cup by a South American. And maybe you want tea: that's poured into your cup by a Chinese. Or maybe you're desirous of having cocoa for breakfast, and that's poured into your cup by a West African. And then you reach over for your toast, and that's given to you at the hands of an English-speaking farmer, not to mention the baker. And before you finish eating breakfast in the morning, you've depended on more than half the world.Love & solidarity.
—Martin Luther King, Jr. in "A Christmas Sermon on Peace"
posted by ftrtts at 3:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [35 favorites]
It's not about the economy. It's not about who had the better campaign. It's not about Whether We Preserve Government. It's not even about the economy.
It's about bullies. Trump is a bully, and there are a lot of people who feel emboldened to be bullies themselves, or who wanted the license to be bullies themselves, or feel won over by the bully, or wish they were on the bully's side, or who are too afraid to NOT be on the bully's side.
That's not an American thing or a right or left thing. That is a HUMAN thing. Too many people are just deep-down cruel. Afraid of whoever is different from them, and turning to cruelty to deal with it.
And we've never done well dealing with bullies. Speaking as the victim of bullying for about five years when I was a kid, we get it so, so wrong. We try to "understand" the bullies and try to get the victims to "understand" the bullies.
I guaran-fucking-tee that many of the people who voted for Trump were bullies themselves, but either never got caught or if they were caught were handled with kid gloves, and all it taught them was that they could keep being cruel and they could get away with it. Or they were victims who saw how the bullies were treated and decided "well fuck that, then, I'm going to start acting like that." They didn't learn that bullying is wrong when they were kids, and now they're grown up and they haven't changed.
We need to finally, for once and for all, handle bullying properly - at EVERY level. Give bullying actual moral and social consequences.
The curse I've started using against people - when I do feel like issuing a curse against anyone (and mostly it's in my own head when they do) - is the curse of insight. That someday, they wake up with the full insight and understanding of exactly how much their words and actions have hurt others. That they fully understand how cruel they are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [48 favorites]
It's about bullies. Trump is a bully, and there are a lot of people who feel emboldened to be bullies themselves, or who wanted the license to be bullies themselves, or feel won over by the bully, or wish they were on the bully's side, or who are too afraid to NOT be on the bully's side.
That's not an American thing or a right or left thing. That is a HUMAN thing. Too many people are just deep-down cruel. Afraid of whoever is different from them, and turning to cruelty to deal with it.
And we've never done well dealing with bullies. Speaking as the victim of bullying for about five years when I was a kid, we get it so, so wrong. We try to "understand" the bullies and try to get the victims to "understand" the bullies.
I guaran-fucking-tee that many of the people who voted for Trump were bullies themselves, but either never got caught or if they were caught were handled with kid gloves, and all it taught them was that they could keep being cruel and they could get away with it. Or they were victims who saw how the bullies were treated and decided "well fuck that, then, I'm going to start acting like that." They didn't learn that bullying is wrong when they were kids, and now they're grown up and they haven't changed.
We need to finally, for once and for all, handle bullying properly - at EVERY level. Give bullying actual moral and social consequences.
The curse I've started using against people - when I do feel like issuing a curse against anyone (and mostly it's in my own head when they do) - is the curse of insight. That someday, they wake up with the full insight and understanding of exactly how much their words and actions have hurt others. That they fully understand how cruel they are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [48 favorites]
If we can quote our previous comments (and I'm recalling this against the news that Tlaib and Omar won their seats, and left-wing policy referendums seem to have outperformed Harris voting patterns):
24/10/24: I spent the day thinking about the poll results and the various anecdata. If I understand well the level of pervasiveness that one doesn't simply bring up any criticisms of Israel in regular speech or among strangers (of which canvassers are a specific kind of 'stranger' in that the conversation is loaded), then I feel the social rules that apply would resemble more that of more authoritarian societies (which in this matter, is not hypothetical - people do see the social sanctions and penalties). But I'm probably wrong in the critical details, though I'm familiar with how public opinion continues changing at the subterranean level when there's repression. The problem is that while the repression is effective it doesn't get rid of anything ESPECIALLY if there's still a democratic lever of expression (be it anonymous phone calls or voting) at some point. That's usually why authoritarian tools backfire the worst for liberal actors (since all the signal-gathering is broken enough to influence effectively) because they can't or won't commit to eventual full authoritarianism, something Trump et al won't hesitate over, not when the ground is so well-prepared by the erstwhile liberals.
posted by cendawanita at 3:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
24/10/24: I spent the day thinking about the poll results and the various anecdata. If I understand well the level of pervasiveness that one doesn't simply bring up any criticisms of Israel in regular speech or among strangers (of which canvassers are a specific kind of 'stranger' in that the conversation is loaded), then I feel the social rules that apply would resemble more that of more authoritarian societies (which in this matter, is not hypothetical - people do see the social sanctions and penalties). But I'm probably wrong in the critical details, though I'm familiar with how public opinion continues changing at the subterranean level when there's repression. The problem is that while the repression is effective it doesn't get rid of anything ESPECIALLY if there's still a democratic lever of expression (be it anonymous phone calls or voting) at some point. That's usually why authoritarian tools backfire the worst for liberal actors (since all the signal-gathering is broken enough to influence effectively) because they can't or won't commit to eventual full authoritarianism, something Trump et al won't hesitate over, not when the ground is so well-prepared by the erstwhile liberals.
posted by cendawanita at 3:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc
There’s your smoking gun. It’s been a long-term project, dating from the shocked response of elites to Roosevelt’s New Deal. The current generation of Dem leadership have continued to offer nothing nearly solid enough (in policy or electoral tactics) to overcome the multi-generational damage that’s been done to the intellectual and physical fabric of American society.
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
There’s your smoking gun. It’s been a long-term project, dating from the shocked response of elites to Roosevelt’s New Deal. The current generation of Dem leadership have continued to offer nothing nearly solid enough (in policy or electoral tactics) to overcome the multi-generational damage that’s been done to the intellectual and physical fabric of American society.
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
While I can endorse all of the self-blaming and finger pointing within the Left, I invite you to also "both-and" the blame. Earlier yesterday Reuters reported bomb threats at polling locations in battleground states. That would suppress voters turnout. One example of the behinds the scenes fuckery that must have been going on...
Also AP reports that Trump cleared 270 Electoral College votes.
posted by otherchaz at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Also AP reports that Trump cleared 270 Electoral College votes.
posted by otherchaz at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
The Democrats have a predilection towards running status quo candidates when people are unsatisfied with the status quo.
Biden should have never announced for re-election. The DNC should have recognized that 4 years wouldn’t have been enough to clean up after Trump, and started preparing a slate of change candidates for a primary.
They got complacent.
posted by vitout at 3:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
Biden should have never announced for re-election. The DNC should have recognized that 4 years wouldn’t have been enough to clean up after Trump, and started preparing a slate of change candidates for a primary.
They got complacent.
posted by vitout at 3:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
So anyway, if Trump decides to try and give Ukraine to his handler in Moscow, does anyone want to predict what the non-traitorous NATO members might do?
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?
I'd imagine even airpower alone would be very handy.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?
I'd imagine even airpower alone would be very handy.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
If only embarrassment were the worst of it.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
You do know that's not how Hitler died, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 3:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
If only embarrassment were the worst of it.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
You do know that's not how Hitler died, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 3:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [32 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [32 favorites]
The US' has always had a deep streak of fascist aithoritarianism. They've been backed by the wealthy and powerful for over a century. Trump is what they have been waiting for.
On the other side, the Democrats have offered no real path to amy meaningful change. Companies could endangers the public and workers and count on the government to break strikes for them, could gouge people suffering food insecurity with impunity. The only leadership on police violence has been to encourage it against protestors, and the total material support of genocide was nonnegotiable, even as it corroded necessary voting blocks for any path forward.
Be as safe as you can everyone, and get ready to fight.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
On the other side, the Democrats have offered no real path to amy meaningful change. Companies could endangers the public and workers and count on the government to break strikes for them, could gouge people suffering food insecurity with impunity. The only leadership on police violence has been to encourage it against protestors, and the total material support of genocide was nonnegotiable, even as it corroded necessary voting blocks for any path forward.
Be as safe as you can everyone, and get ready to fight.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Of The Empireposted by hydropsyche at 3:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [32 favorites]
We will be known as a culture that feared death
and adored power, that tried to vanquish insecurity
for the few and cared little for the penury of the
many. We will be known as a culture that taught
and rewarded the amassing of things, that spoke
little if at all about the quality of life for
people (other people), for dogs, for rivers. All
the world, in our eyes, they will say, was a
commodity. And they will say that this structure
was held together politically, which it was, and
they will say also that our politics was no more
than an apparatus to accommodate the feelings of
the heart, and that the heart, in those days,
was small, and hard, and full of meanness.
-Mary Oliver
So I've mentioned briefly - I now work for a place that performs first-term abortions. We were already seeing many out-of-state patients from states where abortion bans were in place.
Fortunately my state voted to preserve that right (quite strongly so), but a several other states solidified their bans - and now we are at risk of a federal ban, I'm sure.
We'll still do what we can. But we're just one clinic in one city, and many people who need that care will likely not be able to afford the travel necessary to come to that city. Women are going to die.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [20 favorites]
Fortunately my state voted to preserve that right (quite strongly so), but a several other states solidified their bans - and now we are at risk of a federal ban, I'm sure.
We'll still do what we can. But we're just one clinic in one city, and many people who need that care will likely not be able to afford the travel necessary to come to that city. Women are going to die.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [20 favorites]
How I’m feeling right now about every single person who looked at the options available and voted violence over empathy:
”Exit Music (for a film)”, Glastonbury 2017
We hope that you choke.
posted by snortasprocket at 3:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
”Exit Music (for a film)”, Glastonbury 2017
We hope that you choke.
posted by snortasprocket at 3:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites −] Favorite added! [⚑]
my wish: that Biden uses the fuck out of that Presidential immunity to, say, throw Trump into prison based on the merits of the Jan.6 report. That he hold Clarence Thomas and his wife accountable for their actions on Jan 6. that... that he throws 'probity' aside and passes some laws unilaterally banning gerrymandering, say, or fuck if I know, kicking out the supports of the Republican biases.
I would like to see the Democrats play as dirty as the Republicans. I would like to see fighting as fierce and effective for the people as has been fought for a handful of corporations.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [27 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites −] Favorite added! [⚑]
my wish: that Biden uses the fuck out of that Presidential immunity to, say, throw Trump into prison based on the merits of the Jan.6 report. That he hold Clarence Thomas and his wife accountable for their actions on Jan 6. that... that he throws 'probity' aside and passes some laws unilaterally banning gerrymandering, say, or fuck if I know, kicking out the supports of the Republican biases.
I would like to see the Democrats play as dirty as the Republicans. I would like to see fighting as fierce and effective for the people as has been fought for a handful of corporations.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [27 favorites]
I just emailed my professors and asked them to make todays classes on Zoom, because I’m not sure I and other students should be in public even in a deep blue state right now.
posted by corb at 3:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by corb at 3:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
@From Bklyn -
With as decisive a win as he had last night, Biden would be extraordinarily foolish to try any of that. You may not like it, but the numbers are what they are.
posted by tgrundke at 3:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
With as decisive a win as he had last night, Biden would be extraordinarily foolish to try any of that. You may not like it, but the numbers are what they are.
posted by tgrundke at 3:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
Ruwa Romman wins reelection - this was the proposed speaker from the Uncommitted group during the DNC.
posted by cendawanita at 3:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 3:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
but the numbers are what they are.
What numbers? What official results? We still don’t have binding election results yet. Nobody has conceded, last I checked.
posted by edithkeeler at 3:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
What numbers? What official results? We still don’t have binding election results yet. Nobody has conceded, last I checked.
posted by edithkeeler at 3:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Went for a walk and remembered the line you can't save someone who refuses to be saved.
Please take care of your selves everyone
posted by Art_Pot at 3:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Please take care of your selves everyone
posted by Art_Pot at 3:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?Lol, no.
posted by kmt at 3:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
I am disappointed in you USA.
So. Very. Disappointed.
Be extra fucking nice to the trans folk in your lives because they are going to need it.
posted by neonamber at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
So. Very. Disappointed.
Be extra fucking nice to the trans folk in your lives because they are going to need it.
posted by neonamber at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [25 favorites]
I have a close friend who lives in Pennsylvania and she felt like she couldn't vote for Harris because of the genocide in Gaza but ultimately she did anyway and it didn't even come close to mattering. I don't know what to do with that.
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
Thought it was worth asking.
What's the point of NATO then?
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
I don't really have anywhere else to say this, I think.
Punching walls doesn't work, the wall never loses.
Breaking a glass just means I'll need to clean it up afterwards
I could scream until I was hoarse, or drink myself into a stupor, and all I will feel is this, but with a sore throat or a hangover.
For at least the second time in the last ten years, I've allowed myself to believe in some general sort of decency in the world, some general sense of caring for others as an innate part of the human experience, and holy fuck, I was wrong. At my most charitable, people voted for Trump because they didn't pay enough attention to the non-stop stream of the most vile, batshit insane hate I've ever heard in my life, and I remember Jesse Helms, David Duke, Strom Thurmond, Rush Limbaugh, and the rest. The kindest I can bring myself to be is to accept that people were too stupid to know what they've just invited into their lives with Trump and a Senate majority making Project 2025 an almost certainty.
But I've always been too kind, too forgiving. The truth is probably a lot closer to this: people voted for Trump because he promises to hurt the people they want hurt. The voted for Trump because they're excited to see the pain this causes people. They voted for Trump because they got in trouble at work when they used a slur, and they've never gotten over it. They voted for the guy who always gets away with everything, no matter how debased he is or how clear his decline is because it means they have the chance to get away with everything, too.
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left? I know someone out there is just itching to say "Organizing!" and I applaud your conviction, but at this point, I feel like I've just found out that my belief that people should care for other people is somehow not only not a mainstream idea, it could most realistically be described as being so in the minority it's a fringe belief, like the idea that vaccines save lives, or that children shouldn't go hungry. If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I thought 2016 would cure me of thinking that there was some sort of innate good in people. I thought seeing people gleefully ignoring even the most basic of pandemic precautions would get me to realize just how many people do not care for other people. Maybe this is the time I finally learn my lesson.
posted by Ghidorah at 3:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [54 favorites]
Punching walls doesn't work, the wall never loses.
Breaking a glass just means I'll need to clean it up afterwards
I could scream until I was hoarse, or drink myself into a stupor, and all I will feel is this, but with a sore throat or a hangover.
For at least the second time in the last ten years, I've allowed myself to believe in some general sort of decency in the world, some general sense of caring for others as an innate part of the human experience, and holy fuck, I was wrong. At my most charitable, people voted for Trump because they didn't pay enough attention to the non-stop stream of the most vile, batshit insane hate I've ever heard in my life, and I remember Jesse Helms, David Duke, Strom Thurmond, Rush Limbaugh, and the rest. The kindest I can bring myself to be is to accept that people were too stupid to know what they've just invited into their lives with Trump and a Senate majority making Project 2025 an almost certainty.
But I've always been too kind, too forgiving. The truth is probably a lot closer to this: people voted for Trump because he promises to hurt the people they want hurt. The voted for Trump because they're excited to see the pain this causes people. They voted for Trump because they got in trouble at work when they used a slur, and they've never gotten over it. They voted for the guy who always gets away with everything, no matter how debased he is or how clear his decline is because it means they have the chance to get away with everything, too.
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left? I know someone out there is just itching to say "Organizing!" and I applaud your conviction, but at this point, I feel like I've just found out that my belief that people should care for other people is somehow not only not a mainstream idea, it could most realistically be described as being so in the minority it's a fringe belief, like the idea that vaccines save lives, or that children shouldn't go hungry. If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I thought 2016 would cure me of thinking that there was some sort of innate good in people. I thought seeing people gleefully ignoring even the most basic of pandemic precautions would get me to realize just how many people do not care for other people. Maybe this is the time I finally learn my lesson.
posted by Ghidorah at 3:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [54 favorites]
Im in denial. Like I cant believe/accept that that many people have such callous cruelty in their hearts. I'm stuck on how manipulated everyone must be by algorithms, AI, etc. I dont care if that doesn't acknowledge people's agency....I cant stomach the idea that people willingly chose this
posted by EarnestDeer at 3:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by EarnestDeer at 3:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
And those who turned their backs on Harris because she didn't renounce genocide in Gaza - you've just proven you're okay with genocide against women here in the United States.
This wasn't that election. This isn't shaping up to finish as some razor-thin thing where Stein voters could have swung it if they'd been more sensible.
This was the big squishy middle being pissed off because groceries and rent are way more expensive. The only reason this wasn't an almost-2008 level blowout was Trump; he was the only thing keeping it close and it turns out it wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [36 favorites]
This wasn't that election. This isn't shaping up to finish as some razor-thin thing where Stein voters could have swung it if they'd been more sensible.
This was the big squishy middle being pissed off because groceries and rent are way more expensive. The only reason this wasn't an almost-2008 level blowout was Trump; he was the only thing keeping it close and it turns out it wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [36 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?Hastings Ismay, 1st Baron Ismay:
While Secretary General, Ismay is also credited as having been the first person to say that the purpose of NATO was "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,"[2] a saying that has since become a common way to describe the dynamics of NATO.posted by kmt at 3:44 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
Defeating the USSR, which was a threat to the profit of capitalist institutions and the power of the US and western Europe to dominate the third world politically and economically. Since the end of the Cold War it has been a relic, because nothing stands in the way of militarized capital on the global stahe anymorr.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Defeating the USSR, which was a threat to the profit of capitalist institutions and the power of the US and western Europe to dominate the third world politically and economically. Since the end of the Cold War it has been a relic, because nothing stands in the way of militarized capital on the global stahe anymorr.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
I didn't know what to expect, but I never expected for Harris to get completely destroyed. As a leftist who held his nose and voted for Kamala Harris, the narrative in my head was that her inability to reach People Like Me would cost her the election. But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
Here's my takeaway from all this. This might not be correct, but this is the view of things I've stapled together:
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
4. Anecdata is unreliable at best and usually utterly trivial.
5. I have an unlimited capacity for fear.
posted by Philipschall at 3:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
4. Anecdata is unreliable at best and usually utterly trivial.
5. I have an unlimited capacity for fear.
posted by Philipschall at 3:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [26 favorites]
Permission for so many kinds of violence has just been unleashed.
posted by tarantula at 3:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by tarantula at 3:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Nigel Stanage:
This exit poll data is wild:
White men, white women, Black men, Black women, Latina women ALL tracking their 2020 numbers very closely.
Latino men, 2020: Biden 59%, Trump 36%
Latino men, 2024: Harris 45%, Trump 53%
A HUGE shift from D+23 to R+8
---
I reckon we're witnessing an ongoing process of whiteness as experienced by the Irish- and Italian-Americans. But if the other groups' voting patterns are also relatively stable that still meant white women can't get themselves off of the hook either.
posted by cendawanita at 3:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
This exit poll data is wild:
White men, white women, Black men, Black women, Latina women ALL tracking their 2020 numbers very closely.
Latino men, 2020: Biden 59%, Trump 36%
Latino men, 2024: Harris 45%, Trump 53%
A HUGE shift from D+23 to R+8
---
I reckon we're witnessing an ongoing process of whiteness as experienced by the Irish- and Italian-Americans. But if the other groups' voting patterns are also relatively stable that still meant white women can't get themselves off of the hook either.
posted by cendawanita at 3:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
CongratuLations to Russia on winning WWIII without firing a shot.
posted by CynicalKnight at 3:52 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 3:52 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left?
What's left is standing up for what *you* believe is right, no matter what anyone else says. Help someone who needs it. Smile at a child. Comfort those who cry.
posted by demi-octopus at 3:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
What's left is standing up for what *you* believe is right, no matter what anyone else says. Help someone who needs it. Smile at a child. Comfort those who cry.
posted by demi-octopus at 3:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
I saw this right from the start. Harris was far too nice, by staying loyal to someone she must have known was deeply unpopular in many ways, being somewhat unfairly blamed for their cost-of-living crisis. She needed to cut her ties to Biden to the extent possible and be willing to at least suggest that his policies were not her policies. She needed to be a presidential candidate, not a loyal VP.
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
I agree - this is the only way to even get close to redistributing enough wealth to get anywhere close to re-establishing a middle class. Everywhere, but especially America where, as with everything the US does, wealth inequality is supersized.
The (obvious) problem is that no government that makes the necessary decisions would have a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected. In the US, to get that kind of change through would firstly require a whole slate of sacrificial politicians (that are capable of actually being elected) up and down all parts of the federal government to take a leaf out of Trump's book and just lie and cheat their way into power as President as well as the Senate and the House, using whatever means necessary. They'd then have to immediately roll up their sleeves and get to work on massive taxation and other economic reform to the extent it was so entrenched it would be almost impossible to unwind. They'd have four years to get all this done before they got turfed out on their ear in the next election. Even though subsequent governments would try to undo that work, it would take a long time and at least some good would remain.
There are two, likely insurmountable, problems with this idea, of course. The first is that very few people capable of carrying of such a scheme would be willing to do so. The second is that, having been given a taste of power (which, as we know, corrupts), at least some and likely most would decide they like being in power and refuse to do what they were supposed to. Something similar happened in my state (Queensland Australia) back in 1919-1921 when the then-government sought to abolish the upper house (effectively the Senate) by having an additional 16 members appointed (this was an appointed-for-life body, not an elected one) with their only task being to vote themselves out of a job. What's not well-recorded or known is that many of those decided they liked the power and decided to stay. The government had to get a further 14 members appointed before they managed to get that body to vote itself out of existence.
posted by dg at 3:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
I saw this right from the start. Harris was far too nice, by staying loyal to someone she must have known was deeply unpopular in many ways, being somewhat unfairly blamed for their cost-of-living crisis. She needed to cut her ties to Biden to the extent possible and be willing to at least suggest that his policies were not her policies. She needed to be a presidential candidate, not a loyal VP.
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
I agree - this is the only way to even get close to redistributing enough wealth to get anywhere close to re-establishing a middle class. Everywhere, but especially America where, as with everything the US does, wealth inequality is supersized.
The (obvious) problem is that no government that makes the necessary decisions would have a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected. In the US, to get that kind of change through would firstly require a whole slate of sacrificial politicians (that are capable of actually being elected) up and down all parts of the federal government to take a leaf out of Trump's book and just lie and cheat their way into power as President as well as the Senate and the House, using whatever means necessary. They'd then have to immediately roll up their sleeves and get to work on massive taxation and other economic reform to the extent it was so entrenched it would be almost impossible to unwind. They'd have four years to get all this done before they got turfed out on their ear in the next election. Even though subsequent governments would try to undo that work, it would take a long time and at least some good would remain.
There are two, likely insurmountable, problems with this idea, of course. The first is that very few people capable of carrying of such a scheme would be willing to do so. The second is that, having been given a taste of power (which, as we know, corrupts), at least some and likely most would decide they like being in power and refuse to do what they were supposed to. Something similar happened in my state (Queensland Australia) back in 1919-1921 when the then-government sought to abolish the upper house (effectively the Senate) by having an additional 16 members appointed (this was an appointed-for-life body, not an elected one) with their only task being to vote themselves out of a job. What's not well-recorded or known is that many of those decided they liked the power and decided to stay. The government had to get a further 14 members appointed before they managed to get that body to vote itself out of existence.
posted by dg at 3:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
(anyway on my end of things we're preparing contingencies for the expected and usual cuts to the various human rights and women's rights funding and support, typical for a republican admin but adjusted for Trump - but again, not unusual; at some point a few years back one of the local reproductive health service centres here had to give up their one of their funding sources which was American because it came with anti-abortion clauses. So, you know, imperial boomerang be boomeranging.
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita at 3:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita at 3:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
NATO is dead. The corpse may twitch for a bit as people try to appeal to Trump's vanity, but NATO was always an alliance that relied on America's hugely outsized military spending. What remains of non-US-NATO should hopefully be enough to prevent Russia invading any European current-NATO members - the UK and France still have nukes, for example - but the ability to fund or fight a war outside their own borders at anything other than a small scale is gone. Remember, it was touch and go if the UK could win the Falklands war against Argentina, the last war they fought on their own.
Ukraine is at a huge material and manpower disadvantage, and the US was the lions share of giving them modern weapons and training that helped them offset that. The UK in particular has spent billions in Ukraine military aid, but it's only a small fraction of what they need as long as Putin is prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder. No NATO member is going to put boots on the ground in a non-member state when the opponent has nukes. They just won't. And anyone with a Russian border is now at risk.
The best Ukraine can hope for now is Putin will be satisfied with permanently annexing the areas Russia currently control and ending the war; for now, at least.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
NATO is dead. The corpse may twitch for a bit as people try to appeal to Trump's vanity, but NATO was always an alliance that relied on America's hugely outsized military spending. What remains of non-US-NATO should hopefully be enough to prevent Russia invading any European current-NATO members - the UK and France still have nukes, for example - but the ability to fund or fight a war outside their own borders at anything other than a small scale is gone. Remember, it was touch and go if the UK could win the Falklands war against Argentina, the last war they fought on their own.
Ukraine is at a huge material and manpower disadvantage, and the US was the lions share of giving them modern weapons and training that helped them offset that. The UK in particular has spent billions in Ukraine military aid, but it's only a small fraction of what they need as long as Putin is prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder. No NATO member is going to put boots on the ground in a non-member state when the opponent has nukes. They just won't. And anyone with a Russian border is now at risk.
The best Ukraine can hope for now is Putin will be satisfied with permanently annexing the areas Russia currently control and ending the war; for now, at least.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita Fresh [+] [⚑]
all three parties have been planning to disassemble the coalition for a couple weeks now. It's not falling apart, it's the 'usual' Parliamentary b.s.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by cendawanita Fresh [+] [⚑]
all three parties have been planning to disassemble the coalition for a couple weeks now. It's not falling apart, it's the 'usual' Parliamentary b.s.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I grew up in a conservative house – not fascist, but Reaganites (so, unwittingly proto-fascist). If you want to cultivate a lifelong sense that your values and concerns are marginal as a radical or progressive person, this is a good way to do it.
Some of the things that made it possible for me to get into adulthood without succumbing to complete despair were museums, libraries and our local punk scene and the huge world of art it opened me up to. These were small things – as others have noted, not ones that the majority of people around me cared about or valued. But real candles in the darkness – spaces that made me feel at least for a little bit like life could be something other that a grim zero sum game among assholes.
I think people like us are always on the margins of any big culture. But cultivating spaces that provide some psychic refuge is valuable. That’s what I’ve been working on, and am going to keep at as long as possible.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:03 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
I grew up in a conservative house – not fascist, but Reaganites (so, unwittingly proto-fascist). If you want to cultivate a lifelong sense that your values and concerns are marginal as a radical or progressive person, this is a good way to do it.
Some of the things that made it possible for me to get into adulthood without succumbing to complete despair were museums, libraries and our local punk scene and the huge world of art it opened me up to. These were small things – as others have noted, not ones that the majority of people around me cared about or valued. But real candles in the darkness – spaces that made me feel at least for a little bit like life could be something other that a grim zero sum game among assholes.
I think people like us are always on the margins of any big culture. But cultivating spaces that provide some psychic refuge is valuable. That’s what I’ve been working on, and am going to keep at as long as possible.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:03 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
It's about bullies.
Honestly I think that's it.
Trump's diehard followers are the kind of people who are always eager to make the world a worse place for everyone (including themselves) simply as a personal exercise of "power". And the Republican base, while perhaps less actively malicious (except toward specific groups) has enough casual disregard for others to go along with it.
How does one defeat that?
The way I dealt with bullies in school was coming up with unhealthy coping mechanisms, and surviving to high school (where there was less bullying) and finally college (where there was practically no bullying) and "real life" (where the bullies are mostly abstract things like capitalism itself, as well as individual assholes on the road or on the internet). But you can't graduate from politics, we are just stuck with bullies.
But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
And this. As much as I would like to see someone with the heart of AOC, Omar, Pressley, etc. in the oval office... a more leftist candidate would have had the exact same problem Harris did here.
I don't want to solely blame America, though our homestyle blend of flag-waving gun-toting ignorance and bigotry is especially repugnant to me. People all over the world vote against their own best interests to put right-wing authoritarian scumbags into power.
posted by Foosnark at 4:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Honestly I think that's it.
Trump's diehard followers are the kind of people who are always eager to make the world a worse place for everyone (including themselves) simply as a personal exercise of "power". And the Republican base, while perhaps less actively malicious (except toward specific groups) has enough casual disregard for others to go along with it.
How does one defeat that?
The way I dealt with bullies in school was coming up with unhealthy coping mechanisms, and surviving to high school (where there was less bullying) and finally college (where there was practically no bullying) and "real life" (where the bullies are mostly abstract things like capitalism itself, as well as individual assholes on the road or on the internet). But you can't graduate from politics, we are just stuck with bullies.
But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
And this. As much as I would like to see someone with the heart of AOC, Omar, Pressley, etc. in the oval office... a more leftist candidate would have had the exact same problem Harris did here.
I don't want to solely blame America, though our homestyle blend of flag-waving gun-toting ignorance and bigotry is especially repugnant to me. People all over the world vote against their own best interests to put right-wing authoritarian scumbags into power.
posted by Foosnark at 4:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
At college football games in the South between teams from the Southeastern Conference and those from other regions of the country, the crowd sometimes chants “S-E-C! S-E-C!”
This has that vibe.
posted by Caxton1476 at 4:07 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
This has that vibe.
posted by Caxton1476 at 4:07 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
My plan is to turn off the internet. It will do me no good to steep in any of this. I will continue to be kind, energetic, curious, loving, creative, and friendly. I will read books. I will make art. I will be a great husband, father, friend and son. I will love my neighbor. I will make the world a better place by holding the door for strangers and saying thank you and treating everyone as interesting. I will listen. I will speak. I will live my life to the fullest and bring as much joy and I can into the world. In 10 years time I will look back and know that I refused to stew and drown in the muck. I will lead the people in my life and set the best example I can. Anything else is out of my control. Anything else is less than I can do to make this world better.
posted by jasondigitized at 4:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 4:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [43 favorites]
Welp, guess it's back to worrying about Canada playing Poland to Trump's Nazis. I can only hope that his success scares some of the people here and we avoid mini Trump as PM.
posted by Mitheral at 4:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 4:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Mefites piled onto me a week ago when I said this election was about inflation because elections are about whatever moves the dial. Glad to see this thread acknowledging that reality.
I suppose if four people question your "inflation, that's it" comment it can feel like a pile-on, but I wouldn't have called it that. My replies and the few others to your comment in that thread were basically to the effect of (a) everyone voting against Trump has felt the effects of inflation as well, and (b) inflation was a global 2022-23 problem, which has now globally slowed down, and (c) Trump's policies will do nothing to stop it, or they'll make it worse. Nobody was saying inflation hasn't been a problem, the issue was "that's it".
Because that wasn't just it. ABC News polling found 49% of Americans think Trump is a fascist and that one in twelve of those planned to vote for him anyway. That suggests that up to 4 points of Trump's popular vote were people actively voting for a fascist, not voting against inflation. It also suggests that a lot of other Trump voters were telling themselves it was because of inflation to let themselves off the hook for voting for everything else he represents. It can't possibly be their indifference towards or support for racism, misogyny, xenophobia, dismantling democracy and the rest.
We all know who else historically benefitted from voters' memories of a period of high inflation. But ending the explanation for his victory there is just wrong.
Anyway, that current 3.7% Trump lead in the popular vote has really knocked my confidence in the human race, even though I know that Republican shenanigans around voter registrations and the like contributed to it, so I'll just be here with the sizable majority of Western Europeans and 47.3% of American voters looking on aghast.
At least we've been able to tell ourselves for the past ninety years that you-know-who never won a majority of the vote in you-know-where. This is just bleak.
This looks like it could be a worthwhile read.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
I suppose if four people question your "inflation, that's it" comment it can feel like a pile-on, but I wouldn't have called it that. My replies and the few others to your comment in that thread were basically to the effect of (a) everyone voting against Trump has felt the effects of inflation as well, and (b) inflation was a global 2022-23 problem, which has now globally slowed down, and (c) Trump's policies will do nothing to stop it, or they'll make it worse. Nobody was saying inflation hasn't been a problem, the issue was "that's it".
Because that wasn't just it. ABC News polling found 49% of Americans think Trump is a fascist and that one in twelve of those planned to vote for him anyway. That suggests that up to 4 points of Trump's popular vote were people actively voting for a fascist, not voting against inflation. It also suggests that a lot of other Trump voters were telling themselves it was because of inflation to let themselves off the hook for voting for everything else he represents. It can't possibly be their indifference towards or support for racism, misogyny, xenophobia, dismantling democracy and the rest.
We all know who else historically benefitted from voters' memories of a period of high inflation. But ending the explanation for his victory there is just wrong.
Anyway, that current 3.7% Trump lead in the popular vote has really knocked my confidence in the human race, even though I know that Republican shenanigans around voter registrations and the like contributed to it, so I'll just be here with the sizable majority of Western Europeans and 47.3% of American voters looking on aghast.
At least we've been able to tell ourselves for the past ninety years that you-know-who never won a majority of the vote in you-know-where. This is just bleak.
This looks like it could be a worthwhile read.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
I was so comprehensively wrong about everything. I'm so sorry.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Well. Fuck.
Looks like all that "don't trust the polls" stuff was wrong, the polls were right, and Americans are an evil bunch of Nazi loving filth.
posted by sotonohito at 4:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
Looks like all that "don't trust the polls" stuff was wrong, the polls were right, and Americans are an evil bunch of Nazi loving filth.
posted by sotonohito at 4:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
Eugene Finkel on Twitter:
It's a losing proposition but those who predicted Harris' win might consider refraining from telling us where the world is going from here for something like a day or soposted by kmt at 4:17 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed. Let’s avoid turning on each other as a coping mechanism.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Thanks for the NATO responses.
One final totally different topic, which I'm sure has been said before...
And this comes from months of discussing stuff down under with a ragtag bunch of sports fans, so unlike normal silos all walks of life are represented.
What's absolutely astounding is how we're living in different realities. And these people are all consuming Murdoch news and talkback AM radio, because those are all the links they post other than the absolute cooker ones (random youtube ranters).
No matter what's said about Trump, every single criticism is like water off a duck's back: "You probably got that from biased media". So NY fraud and sexual assault cases don't count because it's NY therefore liberal therefore biased. No conception of evidence, grand juries, witnesses, testimonies. It's apparently all fake, and no reporting of facts matters. No listings of all the garbage that happened around the Big Lie counts for anything.
The same goes for everything: Jan 6th? He said "peacefully", case closed! RICO case? Something something weaponising the DOJ. Documents in bathrooms? Biden did it too! It goes on and on.
Trump is supposedly the most unfairly persecuted person in all of history. The Democrats are apparently all about complaining and personal vendettas.
This has been going on for months and nothing at all has ever gotten through, and I don't think anything can get through.
Anyway, I don't know if that helps but I don't think everything can be put down to plain racism and meanness of spirit. These people aren't the brightest, it's a sports forum after all. But combining a low level of critical thinking ability with a determined propaganda machine feeding them all the talking points they need is very powerful indeed, because they end up both-sidesing absolutely everything, including sources of truth.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
One final totally different topic, which I'm sure has been said before...
And this comes from months of discussing stuff down under with a ragtag bunch of sports fans, so unlike normal silos all walks of life are represented.
What's absolutely astounding is how we're living in different realities. And these people are all consuming Murdoch news and talkback AM radio, because those are all the links they post other than the absolute cooker ones (random youtube ranters).
No matter what's said about Trump, every single criticism is like water off a duck's back: "You probably got that from biased media". So NY fraud and sexual assault cases don't count because it's NY therefore liberal therefore biased. No conception of evidence, grand juries, witnesses, testimonies. It's apparently all fake, and no reporting of facts matters. No listings of all the garbage that happened around the Big Lie counts for anything.
The same goes for everything: Jan 6th? He said "peacefully", case closed! RICO case? Something something weaponising the DOJ. Documents in bathrooms? Biden did it too! It goes on and on.
Trump is supposedly the most unfairly persecuted person in all of history. The Democrats are apparently all about complaining and personal vendettas.
This has been going on for months and nothing at all has ever gotten through, and I don't think anything can get through.
Anyway, I don't know if that helps but I don't think everything can be put down to plain racism and meanness of spirit. These people aren't the brightest, it's a sports forum after all. But combining a low level of critical thinking ability with a determined propaganda machine feeding them all the talking points they need is very powerful indeed, because they end up both-sidesing absolutely everything, including sources of truth.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:20 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
Perhaps I should put together a post about this, but my personal insight into it is that the impact to weather science is going to be big. I'm very worried about what is about to happen to funding for my own flight project. Which is of course going to wreck our ability to handle climate change ten years down the road.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:21 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
I was very wrong about how all this would play out; maybe my media sources have become a left wing bubble. Sad for us and for the USA.
posted by Kwine at 4:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Kwine at 4:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
The Internet and social media are a bigger change to the communication/information landscape than we've seen since the telegraph and the rise of broadcast media; maybe since the printing press.
We're going to have our Protestant Reformations and Thirty Years Wars. It's not going to be fun. And always keep in mind that humans are very smart brains riding around inside of stupid animals.
posted by rikschell at 4:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
We're going to have our Protestant Reformations and Thirty Years Wars. It's not going to be fun. And always keep in mind that humans are very smart brains riding around inside of stupid animals.
posted by rikschell at 4:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
sizable majority of Western Europeans
I'll see your small Guardian chart and raise you Gallup data containing most European countries and a few besides.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:31 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
I'll see your small Guardian chart and raise you Gallup data containing most European countries and a few besides.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:31 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
This is a catastrophe on a global scale, like a meteor strike. The consequences will be felt across the globe.
The only thing greater than my fear and alarm right now, is my disgust at Dem voters who sat this one out. How dare you.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
The only thing greater than my fear and alarm right now, is my disgust at Dem voters who sat this one out. How dare you.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
Over 71,000,000. I never knew the US held so many stupid people. Irredeemably stupid. Yes, I am judging you.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:34 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
lol is he winning the popular vote too? We are cooked. It’s been fun but this country is done
posted by dis_integration at 4:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
Would Biden have won? We will never know. I know how much tension left my body when he dropped out, but again, I'm feeling like maybe my finger is not on the pulse, at all; whatever is going on in this country is beyond my ability to make sense of it, unless most of us are just starring in our own private episode of Jackass.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
As a Canadian, I don't know why I feel so properly demoralized and hopeless this morning when it's not even my country.
I think it's because it is the first time I have ever truly come to the realization that my country is next.
posted by Lizard at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
I think it's because it is the first time I have ever truly come to the realization that my country is next.
posted by Lizard at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
Welp, now the people who slept through their high school history class get to find out what it's like to live under an authoritarian dictatorship.
Unfortunately, so do the rest of us.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
Unfortunately, so do the rest of us.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [21 favorites]
Yes, this sucks and is a stunning blow, no question.
It is not the end, not if we pull together and work toward making things better.
But yes, first some tears and heartache
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
It is not the end, not if we pull together and work toward making things better.
But yes, first some tears and heartache
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
I was so comprehensively wrong about everything. I'm so sorry.
I think we all have regrets. I think we all wanted to believe we were living in a saner, kinder world than we are. All we can do is try to live as though we are. I hope you are able to get some peace and calm today. I hope we all are.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
I think we all have regrets. I think we all wanted to believe we were living in a saner, kinder world than we are. All we can do is try to live as though we are. I hope you are able to get some peace and calm today. I hope we all are.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
Would Biden have won? We will never know. I know how much tension left my body when he dropped out, but again, I'm feeling like maybe my finger is not on the pulse, at all; whatever is going on in this country is beyond my ability to make sense of it, unless most of us are just starring in our own private episode of Jackass.
If Biden had stayed in, Trump would have entered landslide territory, probably flipping Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota....that's where the trendlines were going. Believe it or not I think Harris stemmed the worst of the loss.
posted by fortitude25 at 4:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [31 favorites]
If Biden had stayed in, Trump would have entered landslide territory, probably flipping Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota....that's where the trendlines were going. Believe it or not I think Harris stemmed the worst of the loss.
posted by fortitude25 at 4:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [31 favorites]
Harris is polling about 20 million votes behind Biden 2020; Trump’s about where he was in 2020.
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
posted by notyou at 4:44 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
posted by notyou at 4:44 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
I guess I’ll start stocking up for the purge now that the christofascist freaks are going to control every branch of the federal government. Damn, this is so bad!!! Haha, fuck
posted by dis_integration at 4:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
May be the most successful investment Musk ever made.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by 2N2222 at 4:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
The Internet and social media are a bigger change to the communication/information landscape than we've seen since the telegraph and the rise of broadcast media; maybe since the printing press.
Sigh. I can't stop talking.
I've been obsessed recently with this idea I think I came up with (but probably heard somewhere) that we invent and discover things much faster than we learn to deal with them.
Basically, Frankenstein's monsters all the way down.
Seems to me that these things happen in cycles of about 50 years.
It took about half a century from the industrial revolution to the industrialised warfare of WW1 as nations found themselves with more power than they knew how to control, and tensions over the colonisalisation project seeking to supply the materials for all that machinery.
It was about 50 years from The Origin of Species to eugenics and then the death camps.
It was 50 years from the atomic bomb to the end of the arms race.
50 years from the Gutenberg Bible to Martin Luther.
Guess how long between Roe and Dobbs?
The WWW has been widely adopted now for about 30 years, social media in earnest maybe around 20.
By my calculation we're about half way towards hopefully starting to come to grips with it.
Unless of course things speed up with AI, and speeding up is part of the Kali Yuga. However, overall I think the Law of 50s applies.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Sigh. I can't stop talking.
I've been obsessed recently with this idea I think I came up with (but probably heard somewhere) that we invent and discover things much faster than we learn to deal with them.
Basically, Frankenstein's monsters all the way down.
Seems to me that these things happen in cycles of about 50 years.
It took about half a century from the industrial revolution to the industrialised warfare of WW1 as nations found themselves with more power than they knew how to control, and tensions over the colonisalisation project seeking to supply the materials for all that machinery.
It was about 50 years from The Origin of Species to eugenics and then the death camps.
It was 50 years from the atomic bomb to the end of the arms race.
50 years from the Gutenberg Bible to Martin Luther.
Guess how long between Roe and Dobbs?
The WWW has been widely adopted now for about 30 years, social media in earnest maybe around 20.
By my calculation we're about half way towards hopefully starting to come to grips with it.
Unless of course things speed up with AI, and speeding up is part of the Kali Yuga. However, overall I think the Law of 50s applies.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Yesterday in work Slack when I wished everyone “Happy Decide Your Neighbor’s Fate Day,” this is not the fate I expected my neighbors to decide for us.
Find a place for your hands and keep pushing.
posted by notyou at 4:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Find a place for your hands and keep pushing.
posted by notyou at 4:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
2N2222 - that’s in all the Bloomberg chats as the people hit the desk this morning - Musk buying Twitter and doubling down on Trump sure looks sharp.
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm off the mind that Biden set us up for failure the moment he went back on his promise of being a single term president. Kamala and a bunch of folks did utterly heroic work to rally the party once he dropped out, but at the end of the day -- a country still staggering from inflation found this administration unpopular and wanted a change. I think people are tired and disillusioned with the Dem establishment (how often have we here in the Blue lined up the circular firing squad?). The establishment gave its utter best in this election and that was rejected. I don't think the country made the right choice but that's the choice that they made.
I think it's indicative that the last two triumphant Presidents (Obama and Trump) were people who didn't come from within the establishment. I was hopeful that Kamala and Tim's message of being from the middle class would be enough, but at the end they're still ensconced in the establishment and were unable to distance themselves from Biden and that dragged them down.
(Those 20 million Biden voters disappeared the moment his approval rating went below 50%. That hissing sound is the sound of them leaking to the Trump camp)
I think that so long as Congress stays dysfunctional, this dissatisfaction will deepen and fester, and the country will forever lurch between demagogues who can promise to Fix All The Things or under One King who deforms the institutions to undo any fairness of our electoral process. So, I think preserving those institutions from the coming assault is the first priority, which makes me think about local, county and state races. The Stop the Steal movement to create election interference needs an equivalent movement to actually pursue election integrity. That's the only way back, and if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X. Someone new and different who will meet this national hunger to Fix All The Things.
Because so many things will get broken in these next four years.
posted by bl1nk at 4:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
I think it's indicative that the last two triumphant Presidents (Obama and Trump) were people who didn't come from within the establishment. I was hopeful that Kamala and Tim's message of being from the middle class would be enough, but at the end they're still ensconced in the establishment and were unable to distance themselves from Biden and that dragged them down.
(Those 20 million Biden voters disappeared the moment his approval rating went below 50%. That hissing sound is the sound of them leaking to the Trump camp)
I think that so long as Congress stays dysfunctional, this dissatisfaction will deepen and fester, and the country will forever lurch between demagogues who can promise to Fix All The Things or under One King who deforms the institutions to undo any fairness of our electoral process. So, I think preserving those institutions from the coming assault is the first priority, which makes me think about local, county and state races. The Stop the Steal movement to create election interference needs an equivalent movement to actually pursue election integrity. That's the only way back, and if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X. Someone new and different who will meet this national hunger to Fix All The Things.
Because so many things will get broken in these next four years.
posted by bl1nk at 4:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
I think that part that's most disheartening is that Trump won the popular vote and he won it bigly. 8 fucking million more people voted Trump than Harris.
If he'd gotten in by Electoral College bullshit I'd be enraged but not so fucking hopeless.
But what can you do when your nation decides, by an 8 million person margin, that it think Fascism is pretty cool?
I suppose, in a morbid "what exactly killed the patient" sort of way, I'm curious if it really was high prices that drove the idiots to vote Fascism, or if it was just that Harris was a woman (or Black, or Indian, or whatever).
Because Trump did have, on the economy, the advantage of having a good story to tell, and stories matter. Trump's economy story was simple, easy to follow, and makes sense even if it's pure bullshit: prices are too high, it's Biden's fault, and I'm going to lower prices.
He can't lower prices. His policies are guaranteed to raise prices, but that's an explanation and explanations lose to simple stories. Harris had no simple story she could tell, constrained by a belief in reality she was hamstrung by trying to explain and explanations always fail.
Ronald Wilson Fucking Reagan was right about that: if you're explaining, you're losing.
But I'm not sure I buy the idea that it was all about high prices. That's got the feel of a comforting lie we want to tell ourselves so we don't have to face the worse truth: most Americans are Fascists, white supremacists, homophobes, transphobes, and misogynists.
My "liberal" county went for Harris by a mere 54% Harris to 44% Trump. And that's "liberal".
My goal today is to go to work, and if I feel like I can't hold back from telling the Trumpers there to fuck off to say I'm sick and go home instead of getting fired.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [32 favorites]
If he'd gotten in by Electoral College bullshit I'd be enraged but not so fucking hopeless.
But what can you do when your nation decides, by an 8 million person margin, that it think Fascism is pretty cool?
I suppose, in a morbid "what exactly killed the patient" sort of way, I'm curious if it really was high prices that drove the idiots to vote Fascism, or if it was just that Harris was a woman (or Black, or Indian, or whatever).
Because Trump did have, on the economy, the advantage of having a good story to tell, and stories matter. Trump's economy story was simple, easy to follow, and makes sense even if it's pure bullshit: prices are too high, it's Biden's fault, and I'm going to lower prices.
He can't lower prices. His policies are guaranteed to raise prices, but that's an explanation and explanations lose to simple stories. Harris had no simple story she could tell, constrained by a belief in reality she was hamstrung by trying to explain and explanations always fail.
Ronald Wilson Fucking Reagan was right about that: if you're explaining, you're losing.
But I'm not sure I buy the idea that it was all about high prices. That's got the feel of a comforting lie we want to tell ourselves so we don't have to face the worse truth: most Americans are Fascists, white supremacists, homophobes, transphobes, and misogynists.
My "liberal" county went for Harris by a mere 54% Harris to 44% Trump. And that's "liberal".
My goal today is to go to work, and if I feel like I can't hold back from telling the Trumpers there to fuck off to say I'm sick and go home instead of getting fired.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [32 favorites]
So NC won’t vote for a self avowed black Nazi but did vote for a white one? And how many millions of people didn’t vote?
Keep an eye on mortgage rates. The housing market is the economy and when rates get high again everything’s gonna grind to a halt and this administration will be powerless to fix it. And we’ll elect a bag of sand in 4 years to fix this, if we have the opportunity to do so.
Please note I’m crushed about this as well. All of this is out of my control so I’m looking for data that will help me navigate this nightmare situation. Do I stop paying my federal taxes? The IRS will be gutted so odds are low of an audit and I need the cash. Do I start concealed carrying? The bullies just won and they are emboldened. The oligarchs just won and the rest of us lost.
posted by Farce_First at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Keep an eye on mortgage rates. The housing market is the economy and when rates get high again everything’s gonna grind to a halt and this administration will be powerless to fix it. And we’ll elect a bag of sand in 4 years to fix this, if we have the opportunity to do so.
Please note I’m crushed about this as well. All of this is out of my control so I’m looking for data that will help me navigate this nightmare situation. Do I stop paying my federal taxes? The IRS will be gutted so odds are low of an audit and I need the cash. Do I start concealed carrying? The bullies just won and they are emboldened. The oligarchs just won and the rest of us lost.
posted by Farce_First at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
I want to point out lots of dumb shit the Harris campaign did (it was still better than the Clinton one), but it doesn’t matter. The devastation of the next four years will remake America and the world. There might not even be a Democratic Party in 2028. So let’s also avoid knee jerk blaming of the left now. The two parties are now the violent thugs and their victims. The only thing left is to figure out how to help the victims make it through. This won’t be a permanent condition. Something else we cannot predict will happen, we just have to survive
posted by dis_integration at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
I also think that it didn't help that the Biden administration piously avoided holding any members of Congress accountable for their role in subverting the 2020 election.
posted by The Outsider at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
posted by The Outsider at 4:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
They stayed home, for whatever obscene reason, and totally fucked their country, and the world.
We can't pin this one on protest voters, folks. They didn't have enough impact to change anything. Responsibility for this disaster is squarely at the feet of lazy and/or apathetic Dems who couldn't be bothered to pick up a pen to stand in solidarity with their vulnerable neighbours. Quisling bastards.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
ffs stop trying to post mortem it, there's no wisdom to be had.
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it. just stop.
what do you do now? you put your head down, take a breath, take care of yourself, protect the vulnerable as you are able, and find something small and local to do to make things better for even just one person. volunteer for something. make some public art.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 AM on November 6, 2024 [42 favorites]
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it. just stop.
what do you do now? you put your head down, take a breath, take care of yourself, protect the vulnerable as you are able, and find something small and local to do to make things better for even just one person. volunteer for something. make some public art.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 AM on November 6, 2024 [42 favorites]
So NC won’t vote for a self avowed black Nazi but did vote for a white one?
Aww, racism babes
posted by phunniemee at 5:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Aww, racism babes
posted by phunniemee at 5:04 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Slept about two hours. Report from Puerto Rico. The statehood initiative passed with 57% of vote. For the first time independence came in second. A lot of ballots were left blank as a protest.
I'm not sure what's next. If the Republicans control the House, there's a zero percent chance that the statehood vote will be considered. Statehood has to go through the House and the Senate. So another middle finger to democracy.
The "Pro-statehood" party candidates won the governorship (a woman). The non-voting Representative position went to the PDP party, pro-commonwealth. I hate the term pro-statehood. It looks like prostate.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
I'm not sure what's next. If the Republicans control the House, there's a zero percent chance that the statehood vote will be considered. Statehood has to go through the House and the Senate. So another middle finger to democracy.
The "Pro-statehood" party candidates won the governorship (a woman). The non-voting Representative position went to the PDP party, pro-commonwealth. I hate the term pro-statehood. It looks like prostate.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X
Aw, man. So from Carter onwards, we had Greatest Generation, Greatest Generation x 2, Greatest Generation, Boomer x 2 , Boomer x 2, Boomer x 2, Boomer, Silent Generation, Boomer. And running against Trump this time was someone on the cusp of X but still technically a Boomer.
Yeah, let's just skip Gen X, we'll be too busy dealing with our parents' estates.
posted by rory at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Aw, man. So from Carter onwards, we had Greatest Generation, Greatest Generation x 2, Greatest Generation, Boomer x 2 , Boomer x 2, Boomer x 2, Boomer, Silent Generation, Boomer. And running against Trump this time was someone on the cusp of X but still technically a Boomer.
Yeah, let's just skip Gen X, we'll be too busy dealing with our parents' estates.
posted by rory at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
This, but unironically.
You can chide an individual for their choice to not vote, but elections don't turn on individual responsibility. They turn on the ability of campaigns to give their voters reasons to come out to vote. Reasons to be excited or hopeful, and to think there are genuine better possibilities.
Just running on how wretched the other guy is never works. It should, but it doesn't. If I stayed home and didn't vote, that's on me. If 20 million of my neighbors don't get up to vote, that says something about the campaign.
I am sick about this. I have friends who are very likely to die over the next four years because of this election. But the causes here aren't 20,000,000 voters just decided to embrace evil arbitrarily. It is that the things that should have been present to get people out to vote didn't materialize and the least motivated voters just didn't turn out as a result.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
This, but unironically.
You can chide an individual for their choice to not vote, but elections don't turn on individual responsibility. They turn on the ability of campaigns to give their voters reasons to come out to vote. Reasons to be excited or hopeful, and to think there are genuine better possibilities.
Just running on how wretched the other guy is never works. It should, but it doesn't. If I stayed home and didn't vote, that's on me. If 20 million of my neighbors don't get up to vote, that says something about the campaign.
I am sick about this. I have friends who are very likely to die over the next four years because of this election. But the causes here aren't 20,000,000 voters just decided to embrace evil arbitrarily. It is that the things that should have been present to get people out to vote didn't materialize and the least motivated voters just didn't turn out as a result.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:08 AM on November 6, 2024 [19 favorites]
Harris didn’t run on the other guy is bad, abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
Silenced transgender state lawmaker Zooey Zephyr wins reelection in Montana
posted by cendawanita at 5:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [34 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [34 favorites]
abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
Looks like most of the those initiatives passed.
And the down-ballot races aren't some massive GOP blowout. People just... fucking sat this one out at the top of the ticket?
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
Looks like most of the those initiatives passed.
And the down-ballot races aren't some massive GOP blowout. People just... fucking sat this one out at the top of the ticket?
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
New voters aged 18-21 didn't vote in 2020 and nobody under 25 voted in 2016. Trump's voters this year include a lot of people who were kids when he was last president, including a lot of young white men who've bought into Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan and think Elon Musk is a great visionary. Even relying on memories of 2020 isn't a reliable shorthand for "remember when things were bad" for everyone.
posted by rory at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by rory at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
US Politics: “After Rampage, Horse is Allowed Back Into the Hospital”
posted by snortasprocket at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by snortasprocket at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
yeah, I find that... odd
posted by From Bklyn at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
yeah, I find that... odd
posted by From Bklyn at 5:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Harris didn’t run on the other guy is bad, abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
And how did that work out? Missouri voters went for Trump 58% to 40% but went for Amendment 3 (Right to Abortion) 51.85% to 48.15%.
posted by Foosnark at 5:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
And how did that work out? Missouri voters went for Trump 58% to 40% but went for Amendment 3 (Right to Abortion) 51.85% to 48.15%.
posted by Foosnark at 5:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
Should have recruited Taylor Swift. US politics is a shitshow that can only be won if everyone loses
posted by rikschell at 5:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 5:14 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
Back in June, I did an informal experiment. I visit Yahoo News which has feeds from a variety of news sources, mainstream, liberal, and conservative. My test parameters were these.
Whenever there was an image of a minority as part of the link to a story and in the headline that person was identified as a criminal I made note of the source and copied that headline. This happened on the average of about twice a day.
70% of the time the photo and headline met that combination it was Fox News. A number of times they were immigrants, often they were stories not appearing as part of any other news feeds.
For example,
6/6/2024
Fox News
Illegal migrant from Venezuela allegedly shot NYPD officers at 'point-blank range,' ordered held without bail
Fox News
Judge reveals another twist in the case of Michigan viral Zoom video driver who pleaded clerical error
Fox News
Chicago suburb shuts down annual carnival indefinitely after teens cause ‘flash mob’ chaos
6/7/2024
The Daily Beast
Ex-NBA Player Delonte West Arrested After Collapsing While Fleeing Cops: Report
KDVR Denver (Fox affiliate)
Denver human trafficker sentenced to 448 years in prison
6/8/2024
Fox News
Far-left activist convicted in executions of 2 FBI agents headed to parole hearing with support from Dems
Reason.com
Viral Story About Bogus Viral Story Was Also Bogus
(in this case it had a photo of someone driving illegally and correcting the corrections to a previous story)
Miami Herald
Seeking revenge, Xavien Howard texted boy sexual photos of his mother: court records
Fox News
Bukele has El Salvador poised to prosper after stopping murder, migration cold in first term
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
Whenever there was an image of a minority as part of the link to a story and in the headline that person was identified as a criminal I made note of the source and copied that headline. This happened on the average of about twice a day.
70% of the time the photo and headline met that combination it was Fox News. A number of times they were immigrants, often they were stories not appearing as part of any other news feeds.
For example,
6/6/2024
Fox News
Illegal migrant from Venezuela allegedly shot NYPD officers at 'point-blank range,' ordered held without bail
Fox News
Judge reveals another twist in the case of Michigan viral Zoom video driver who pleaded clerical error
Fox News
Chicago suburb shuts down annual carnival indefinitely after teens cause ‘flash mob’ chaos
6/7/2024
The Daily Beast
Ex-NBA Player Delonte West Arrested After Collapsing While Fleeing Cops: Report
KDVR Denver (Fox affiliate)
Denver human trafficker sentenced to 448 years in prison
6/8/2024
Fox News
Far-left activist convicted in executions of 2 FBI agents headed to parole hearing with support from Dems
Reason.com
Viral Story About Bogus Viral Story Was Also Bogus
(in this case it had a photo of someone driving illegally and correcting the corrections to a previous story)
Miami Herald
Seeking revenge, Xavien Howard texted boy sexual photos of his mother: court records
Fox News
Bukele has El Salvador poised to prosper after stopping murder, migration cold in first term
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
Well, now that we're in the shit anyway, I guess I do sort of embrace accelerationism? Maybe, if the economy goes badly enough the Fascist fuckers of the USA will back off the Fascism a little?
I don't know. I'm grasping at straws here.
posted by sotonohito at 5:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I don't know. I'm grasping at straws here.
posted by sotonohito at 5:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
As a whole, I tend to think Phillipschall's take has the most explanatory power regarding the decisive margins this time around:
Once my anger and dismay and nauseated fear became a little manageable this morning, I found myself thinking about a student I had many years ago. I am dialing down specifics for their privacy here, so apologies if nay of this is a bit vague.
The student had chosen to write about how to address a well-known, difficult-to-treat disease with a high mortality rate.
The student's thesis was that the government was not spending enough money on researching a cure for this notoriously hard-to-treat illness, and they were struggling to support that thesis with relevant evidence or well-reasoned supporting arguments.
Students had been researching their topics and turning in source evaluations for a couple of weeks before drafting their thesis statements, so I had a sit-down with the student to talk through what this student had found in their sources. I hoped that we'd uncover some evidence or ideas int he sources that could strengthen this student's thesis idea or at least help identify a more supportable replacement.
In our consult, I learned from the student that they did not have any information on how much government funding was already out there in terms of research on this disease. The student also did not have much understanding of why the disease might be difficult to treat and perhaps impossible to "cure," at least in the short term. The student also did not seem to have found any information about what treatments were currently available or being researched.
So it wasn't clear why they'd concluded that government spending was insufficient or that more funding was the solution. It wasn't really even clear what he'd been finding in their sources. So I asked him what in his research had led him to his thesis idea.
The student responded that they just felt the government didn't care about helping people with the disease. When I asked further, the student told me, bravely in retrospect, that they had lost a beloved, close relative tot he disease. The student felt very strongly that their relative should not have died, and that the government did not care because otherwise their relative would not have had to die in this way.
We didn't make much progress on the paper, and I made the mistake of trying to steer the student to another topic, one they wouldn't feel very strongly about, which must have seemed dismissive of both their feelings and what they saw as their honest, passionate efforts.
But at the same time, there was just no real way to help the student make their topic choice work as an argument thesis. They weren't interested in making a research-driven argument so much as they wanted to express their pain and loss, and, more importantly, to find something that they could hold responsible for the unfairness of that pain and loss.
I think there are a fairly large number of people in the U.S. for whose lived experience of the current economic and social situation is very much like that student's lived experience. What they want is not policy, or reasoning, or difficult and complex answers, or even, really, knowledge.
I've also gotten a lot of students in recent years who want to write about inflation, and they struggle not only to define the causes of inflation or explain why their preferred solution might work, but also to find evidence or articulate explanations for the causes of inflation.
In all of these cases, folks perceive a real and painful thing: the high cost of housing, the injustice of illness or relative poverty, the vanishing sense of opportunity, and the limited pathways to get or maintain a sustainable economic life.
And what those folks seem to want is not evidence, reasoning, explanation, and the working out of constructive actions that might gradually or partially improve things.
No, what they want is a reassurance that some simple decision can reverse that unfairness and immediately banish that sense of fear and loss. And they think that whoever or whatever external entity to whom they assign causal power is not making that decision, and needs to be blamed and shamed for it.
Some of that is desperation, Some of that is feeling unheard. And a lot of that is a sense of personal powerlessness, which creates considerable appeal when someone unlike those in power claim to care, to hold vast power, and to have the magic power to make it all go away.
And all the better if the plodding, seemingly uncaring, dismissive folks that seem to have and withhold the power to help dislike that seemingly tough, decisive, absolutist promiser of protection, vindication, and forceful reassurance. Assigning blame is also reassuring.
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
posted by kewb at 5:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [86 favorites]
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
Once my anger and dismay and nauseated fear became a little manageable this morning, I found myself thinking about a student I had many years ago. I am dialing down specifics for their privacy here, so apologies if nay of this is a bit vague.
The student had chosen to write about how to address a well-known, difficult-to-treat disease with a high mortality rate.
The student's thesis was that the government was not spending enough money on researching a cure for this notoriously hard-to-treat illness, and they were struggling to support that thesis with relevant evidence or well-reasoned supporting arguments.
Students had been researching their topics and turning in source evaluations for a couple of weeks before drafting their thesis statements, so I had a sit-down with the student to talk through what this student had found in their sources. I hoped that we'd uncover some evidence or ideas int he sources that could strengthen this student's thesis idea or at least help identify a more supportable replacement.
In our consult, I learned from the student that they did not have any information on how much government funding was already out there in terms of research on this disease. The student also did not have much understanding of why the disease might be difficult to treat and perhaps impossible to "cure," at least in the short term. The student also did not seem to have found any information about what treatments were currently available or being researched.
So it wasn't clear why they'd concluded that government spending was insufficient or that more funding was the solution. It wasn't really even clear what he'd been finding in their sources. So I asked him what in his research had led him to his thesis idea.
The student responded that they just felt the government didn't care about helping people with the disease. When I asked further, the student told me, bravely in retrospect, that they had lost a beloved, close relative tot he disease. The student felt very strongly that their relative should not have died, and that the government did not care because otherwise their relative would not have had to die in this way.
We didn't make much progress on the paper, and I made the mistake of trying to steer the student to another topic, one they wouldn't feel very strongly about, which must have seemed dismissive of both their feelings and what they saw as their honest, passionate efforts.
But at the same time, there was just no real way to help the student make their topic choice work as an argument thesis. They weren't interested in making a research-driven argument so much as they wanted to express their pain and loss, and, more importantly, to find something that they could hold responsible for the unfairness of that pain and loss.
I think there are a fairly large number of people in the U.S. for whose lived experience of the current economic and social situation is very much like that student's lived experience. What they want is not policy, or reasoning, or difficult and complex answers, or even, really, knowledge.
I've also gotten a lot of students in recent years who want to write about inflation, and they struggle not only to define the causes of inflation or explain why their preferred solution might work, but also to find evidence or articulate explanations for the causes of inflation.
In all of these cases, folks perceive a real and painful thing: the high cost of housing, the injustice of illness or relative poverty, the vanishing sense of opportunity, and the limited pathways to get or maintain a sustainable economic life.
And what those folks seem to want is not evidence, reasoning, explanation, and the working out of constructive actions that might gradually or partially improve things.
No, what they want is a reassurance that some simple decision can reverse that unfairness and immediately banish that sense of fear and loss. And they think that whoever or whatever external entity to whom they assign causal power is not making that decision, and needs to be blamed and shamed for it.
Some of that is desperation, Some of that is feeling unheard. And a lot of that is a sense of personal powerlessness, which creates considerable appeal when someone unlike those in power claim to care, to hold vast power, and to have the magic power to make it all go away.
And all the better if the plodding, seemingly uncaring, dismissive folks that seem to have and withhold the power to help dislike that seemingly tough, decisive, absolutist promiser of protection, vindication, and forceful reassurance. Assigning blame is also reassuring.
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
posted by kewb at 5:24 AM on November 6, 2024 [86 favorites]
The maybe constructive response to this election:
Most people will vote for policy referenda that reflect constructive local action, even when "local" is as big as a whole state.
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
That could not only create some local action, but it also might gradually build something for future candidates to run on: protecting or enforcing what people have already voted for, especially when state or federal officials effectively override the referenda.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
posted by kewb at 5:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Most people will vote for policy referenda that reflect constructive local action, even when "local" is as big as a whole state.
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
That could not only create some local action, but it also might gradually build something for future candidates to run on: protecting or enforcing what people have already voted for, especially when state or federal officials effectively override the referenda.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
posted by kewb at 5:29 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
i still don't understand the basis for calling states that are still counting early/mail votes and flipped days after appear red in 2020
it's weird to not even see that mentioned or acknowledged anywhere and i really hope Harris doesn't pull a Gore and concede without waiting
also, people are stupid & selfish... if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
posted by kokaku at 5:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
it's weird to not even see that mentioned or acknowledged anywhere and i really hope Harris doesn't pull a Gore and concede without waiting
also, people are stupid & selfish... if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
posted by kokaku at 5:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Mod note: Hey all, there's an AskMe post that has several decent suggestions on how to deal with the US election results. Please check out and definitely spend some time taking card of yourself and your loved ones.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
I've had an epiphany about this wolf's world. So many years I've been trying to be sane and responsible and pragmatic and polite and this is what it's gotten me. To be sane in an insane world is actually the height of insanity. So anyways, hi I'm god and this world is Jackass or some such. Whatever, sense and syntax are for normies. No more masks. The clock has chimed midnight, and we all must remove our masks. No mask! No mask!
posted by LeRoienJaune at 5:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by LeRoienJaune at 5:32 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
States get called early because the outcome would only change if the outstanding mail ballots would break very, very heavily for one candidate in ways that are statistically very improbable.
And in some cases, there are not enough outstanding ballots to shift the outcome even if they were -- impossibly -- 100% in favor of one candidate.
posted by kewb at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
And in some cases, there are not enough outstanding ballots to shift the outcome even if they were -- impossibly -- 100% in favor of one candidate.
posted by kewb at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I will say I can't imagine what it will be like to have Robert Kennedy Jr. in charge of NIH and the CDC. I've fought for twenty-some years for people to take vaccinations seriously. I've had the Kennedy bunch accuse me of promoting the killing of thousands of children.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [30 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [30 favorites]
i still don't understand the basis for calling states that are still counting early/mail votes and flipped days after appear red in 2020
PA and WI are pretty close to done. Both way above 90% counted, and the lead there is presumably large enough to "call it." Though nothing is official yet, and it is theoretically possible I guess WI could flip?
No projected winner in e.g. AZ right now.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
PA and WI are pretty close to done. Both way above 90% counted, and the lead there is presumably large enough to "call it." Though nothing is official yet, and it is theoretically possible I guess WI could flip?
No projected winner in e.g. AZ right now.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
What's going to be frustrating is that when Social Security gets cut and Medicare gets cut and my black niece and my lesbian niece and my extended family who aren't well-off suffer in many ways, when the economy implodes and prices shoot up and jobs become harder to come by, I'm going to have to hold back when I look at people I know who voted for Trump and not scream I TOLD YOU SO.
I don't WANT to be after-the-fact right about him, about all of this. I don't want to play Cassandra. I don't WANT added suffering to demonstrate that they were wrong and I was right about the implications of what is happening.
They wouldn't believe me, anyway. Whatever happens, it will be Someone Else's Fault.
posted by delfin at 5:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
I don't WANT to be after-the-fact right about him, about all of this. I don't want to play Cassandra. I don't WANT added suffering to demonstrate that they were wrong and I was right about the implications of what is happening.
They wouldn't believe me, anyway. Whatever happens, it will be Someone Else's Fault.
posted by delfin at 5:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
The fact of the matter is that each news desk has a bunch of PhDs who study this stuff tell them what the probability of a state flipping is. For PA, it’s very very low since the share of remaining votes has to be wildly disproportionate to the share of current votes
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
They call when it’s statistically incredibly unlikely that the outcome will change based on the remaining votes. It’s just a cheeky bit of math
posted by dis_integration at 5:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by dis_integration at 5:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
This is so much why people often vote better when it's closer to home - lots of people, statistically speaking, must have voted in favor of abortion rights and also for Trump, which is sheer madness but makes sense if you imagine people who do not have a strong grasp on how politics works at the national level. Unless you devote time and effort to understanding politics, unless you are a fluent reader or a careful listener, you aren't going to be reasoning well about how all this works, and that means that the Democratic "vote for us, we're less bad" strategy is doomed to fail, because it relies on everyone carefully reasoning that things cannot get better but they can certainly get worse and then being motivated to vote.
This is much like Brexit, where a combination of racism and people just believing impossible things that could never happen led to a vote for absolute, crashing disaster. Anyone with information could see that - no matter how they felt about the EU - Brexit itself could never be anything but a disaster because of the complexity of trade involved. Similarly, anyone with information knows that, eg, completely fucking up the civil service and creating huge tariffs will be disastrous. But if you are either a racist motivated by hatred or someone who says "well, things are bad, tariffs will create jobs by keeping foreign goods out and after all it should be easy to hire and fire in the civil service just like with bank tellers or bus drivers" you're going to go along and drive us right off a cliff.
posted by Frowner at 5:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
This is so much why people often vote better when it's closer to home - lots of people, statistically speaking, must have voted in favor of abortion rights and also for Trump, which is sheer madness but makes sense if you imagine people who do not have a strong grasp on how politics works at the national level. Unless you devote time and effort to understanding politics, unless you are a fluent reader or a careful listener, you aren't going to be reasoning well about how all this works, and that means that the Democratic "vote for us, we're less bad" strategy is doomed to fail, because it relies on everyone carefully reasoning that things cannot get better but they can certainly get worse and then being motivated to vote.
This is much like Brexit, where a combination of racism and people just believing impossible things that could never happen led to a vote for absolute, crashing disaster. Anyone with information could see that - no matter how they felt about the EU - Brexit itself could never be anything but a disaster because of the complexity of trade involved. Similarly, anyone with information knows that, eg, completely fucking up the civil service and creating huge tariffs will be disastrous. But if you are either a racist motivated by hatred or someone who says "well, things are bad, tariffs will create jobs by keeping foreign goods out and after all it should be easy to hire and fire in the civil service just like with bank tellers or bus drivers" you're going to go along and drive us right off a cliff.
posted by Frowner at 5:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
Yo I don’t think a lot of the people voting for trump, or in general, know what a tariff is
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [24 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:49 AM on November 6, 2024 [24 favorites]
Matt Parker did a video on the "Red Mirage" and "Blue Shift" phenomenon, in which he also talks about calling a state. That bit is at 16:39.
posted by Pendragon at 5:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 5:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
If this is what people want, there is no version of this the Democrats can give them.
posted by argybarg at 5:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 5:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
I can't wrap my mind around this. I hope it won't turn out to be as bad as we can legitimately expect it to be.
posted by nicolin at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by nicolin at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
posted by Don Pepino at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
posted by Don Pepino at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
Two things:
1.I've already mentioned the absolute joyous experience I had being a pole worker on election. Am glad to mention two friends also had similar experiences, admittedly in the Democratic strong Savannah Georgia. But those experiences are a reminder to me that there's much hope, even on this darker morning.
2. I want to find whoever the Democratic leader is or wishes to means ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
1.I've already mentioned the absolute joyous experience I had being a pole worker on election. Am glad to mention two friends also had similar experiences, admittedly in the Democratic strong Savannah Georgia. But those experiences are a reminder to me that there's much hope, even on this darker morning.
2. I want to find whoever the Democratic leader is or wishes to means ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
I watched the 5th game of the World Series and the Trump ad they ran was a doozy. Turned the sound off the 2nd time it came on but it had an impact on me.
posted by torokunai at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by torokunai at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
A lot of good things bubble up from the states -- such as gay marriage. And more-local changes have potential too.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
As an aside, I recently learned about the True Representation Movement, which seeks to "vote in candidates who will vote EXACTLY how their constituents--NOT their party or their donors --want them to vote."
posted by NotLost at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
A lot of good things bubble up from the states -- such as gay marriage. And more-local changes have potential too.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
As an aside, I recently learned about the True Representation Movement, which seeks to "vote in candidates who will vote EXACTLY how their constituents--NOT their party or their donors --want them to vote."
posted by NotLost at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
Biden had more consensus among Democrats behind him than any Democratic President in history. He got stuff done in 2021 and 2022 with tiny Congressional majorities that Obama and Clinton couldn’t do with far larger majorities.
So, the most likely Democratic Party strategy for 2026 is “more of the same” and in 2028 “more of the same but with someone more popular at the top of the ticket.”
posted by MattD at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
So, the most likely Democratic Party strategy for 2026 is “more of the same” and in 2028 “more of the same but with someone more popular at the top of the ticket.”
posted by MattD at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
Thought those were canceled....
posted by sammyo at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Thought those were canceled....
posted by sammyo at 6:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Yo I don’t think a lot of the people voting for trump, or in general, know what a tariff is
And neither does Trump. He demonstrated that very clearly.
My only cold comfort is that when they had some competent people around them and manning the rungs of government, they still shot their own feet full of holes because they could fuck up a grilled cheese sandwich. When it's nothing but dipshits as far as the eye can see running the ship... well, they will attempt some seriously vile shit and succeed at some seriously vile shit, but sheer incompetence on their part will be something of a hindrance.
posted by delfin at 6:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
And neither does Trump. He demonstrated that very clearly.
My only cold comfort is that when they had some competent people around them and manning the rungs of government, they still shot their own feet full of holes because they could fuck up a grilled cheese sandwich. When it's nothing but dipshits as far as the eye can see running the ship... well, they will attempt some seriously vile shit and succeed at some seriously vile shit, but sheer incompetence on their part will be something of a hindrance.
posted by delfin at 6:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [6 favorites]
Don Pepino: Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
Until it happens to them, it's really easy to be very sure it won't happen to them, a good person who does everything right.
And when it happens to the person next door, some of them ward off the fear by asserting moral luck: the neighbor must have done something wrong.
posted by kewb at 6:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Until it happens to them, it's really easy to be very sure it won't happen to them, a good person who does everything right.
And when it happens to the person next door, some of them ward off the fear by asserting moral luck: the neighbor must have done something wrong.
posted by kewb at 6:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
The Dems need to inspire people to GOTV and that needs taking bold stances. There was no break from the current administration--none. And what people saw was a failure to do anything about student loans, a failure to punish Trump, a failure to hold any leadership accountable for January 6th, the complete loss of any moral high ground by arming a state executing a genocide, and no serious attempts to do anything about the supreme court.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:05 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:05 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
One of the comforts I’m taking is that so much of what Biden has done is deep in the bureaucratic weeds and Trump’s incompetents likely will have no idea how to find and reverse them, may not even notice they’re there. Like I can barely find reporting on the work he did to stabilize the Indian Health System even though I know it happened and how he did it. A lot of this stuff is going to be complicated to unravel and I just don’t see R’s having the political will to push through that. And you can wave your hands and say “oogie boogie the health system is gone!” but that doesn’t actually stop the machine of government.
posted by brook horse at 6:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 6:09 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
I walked a weeping Older Daughter to school today. I said, "we live in Russia now. It's not America anymore. Up til now, you've been as queer and genderbending as you want to be, and some people cherish it, and everyone else has to at least tolerate it. Now? Things are different."
"I have to start masking," she said.
"Yep. They're coming after political enemies first, then journalists, then trans people. Just like Hitler did. He's their model. That's how evil they are. Who's the first person dragged off to the re-education camp?"
"The trans person."
"Nope. The person who says the emperor has no clothes. They're going to kill protestors: it's what they've been wanting to do since the Vietnam War. Trans person's next, but don't think you can fight City Hall, here. You're going to be 30 before anything seems normal again. People are going to tell you to stand up for righteousness and fight injustice, but I want you to survive. Do well in school, find a way to make a living, keep your head down, and don't date anyone, no matter how cute, who supports this."
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [51 favorites]
"I have to start masking," she said.
"Yep. They're coming after political enemies first, then journalists, then trans people. Just like Hitler did. He's their model. That's how evil they are. Who's the first person dragged off to the re-education camp?"
"The trans person."
"Nope. The person who says the emperor has no clothes. They're going to kill protestors: it's what they've been wanting to do since the Vietnam War. Trans person's next, but don't think you can fight City Hall, here. You're going to be 30 before anything seems normal again. People are going to tell you to stand up for righteousness and fight injustice, but I want you to survive. Do well in school, find a way to make a living, keep your head down, and don't date anyone, no matter how cute, who supports this."
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [51 favorites]
One comfort I am taking is that when California gets tabulated it may well erase Trump's popular vote lead. Which would make it three elections out of the last eight with popular vote not reflecting the winner.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
I'm considering starting a GFM for an expedited passport so I have a chance of making it across a border before this incoming bunch of fascists define my very existing as a form of pornography and has me imprisoned for being transgender especially since I'm living across the street from a school.
I barely slept last night. I'm fucking scared. I have half of a plan to get to New Jersey from Philadelphia in the hopes that there I can leverage being born in the state to get an expedited name and birth certificate change, and then a speed-run on a new passport, and then get myself somewhere I might not go to prison just for not wanting to live in misery the way I did for a half-century, even if I have to live completely off the grid for a little bit until I can find a way.
My therapist offered free cancellations today because she's not sure she can be a decent therapist today.
I am a disabled, chronically ill trans person, and have contacted my doctor for paper copies of every prescription I have, in case I can't easily transfer them.
I'm a fucking target now. I have a go-bag packed when I didn't before - that's how I spent the morning.
Sorry if this is disjointed, but my brain is jumping in seven different directions.
posted by mephron at 6:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [34 favorites]
I barely slept last night. I'm fucking scared. I have half of a plan to get to New Jersey from Philadelphia in the hopes that there I can leverage being born in the state to get an expedited name and birth certificate change, and then a speed-run on a new passport, and then get myself somewhere I might not go to prison just for not wanting to live in misery the way I did for a half-century, even if I have to live completely off the grid for a little bit until I can find a way.
My therapist offered free cancellations today because she's not sure she can be a decent therapist today.
I am a disabled, chronically ill trans person, and have contacted my doctor for paper copies of every prescription I have, in case I can't easily transfer them.
I'm a fucking target now. I have a go-bag packed when I didn't before - that's how I spent the morning.
Sorry if this is disjointed, but my brain is jumping in seven different directions.
posted by mephron at 6:13 AM on November 6, 2024 [34 favorites]
that doesn’t actually stop the machine of government.
I've been trying to remind myself that from 2016 to 2020, we saw Trump trying hard to kill off various Government systems, but they kept marching along. He'll get farther with it this time, but good people will keep doing good work.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
I've been trying to remind myself that from 2016 to 2020, we saw Trump trying hard to kill off various Government systems, but they kept marching along. He'll get farther with it this time, but good people will keep doing good work.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6
Pack the court baby! You've got 2 months!
posted by latkes at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6
Pack the court baby! You've got 2 months!
posted by latkes at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
My brain keeps flipping back to its analysis of 2016 in terms of it being as much of a static/dynamic battle than a left/right battle for many.
People who follow politics like junkies understand many of the nuances of these voting choices. Many, many others do not and choose not to. It's not rocket science to see people looking at their status, their purchasing power, their increasing lack of control over their lives and responding with CHANGE in a very loud voice.
Obama's slogan was HOPE AND CHANGE; at least symbolically, he grasped that. Trump 2016 painted himself as the outsider, the non-politician, the break with all of the previous norms up against the ultimate establishment candidate in Hillary. Things went to shit under Trump, and Biden won as a change from that. And now?
Harris painted herself as the 'change candidate' because Trump was a known quantity, and I remarked that a standing Veep depicted as the agent of change seemed very... odd. Too many people saw it the other way; things seemed bad (or at least their chosen media, whether mainstream or Mirror Universe, painted them that way), and they could vote for more of the same kind of path or for something radically different, for CHANGE regardless of what the change was, or whether it would be rational or good change or not.
The signs reading TRUMP LOW PRICES / KAMALA HIGH PRICES seemed overly simplistic and patronizing. But... perhaps not so much, as they reached their target audience.
posted by delfin at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
People who follow politics like junkies understand many of the nuances of these voting choices. Many, many others do not and choose not to. It's not rocket science to see people looking at their status, their purchasing power, their increasing lack of control over their lives and responding with CHANGE in a very loud voice.
Obama's slogan was HOPE AND CHANGE; at least symbolically, he grasped that. Trump 2016 painted himself as the outsider, the non-politician, the break with all of the previous norms up against the ultimate establishment candidate in Hillary. Things went to shit under Trump, and Biden won as a change from that. And now?
Harris painted herself as the 'change candidate' because Trump was a known quantity, and I remarked that a standing Veep depicted as the agent of change seemed very... odd. Too many people saw it the other way; things seemed bad (or at least their chosen media, whether mainstream or Mirror Universe, painted them that way), and they could vote for more of the same kind of path or for something radically different, for CHANGE regardless of what the change was, or whether it would be rational or good change or not.
The signs reading TRUMP LOW PRICES / KAMALA HIGH PRICES seemed overly simplistic and patronizing. But... perhaps not so much, as they reached their target audience.
posted by delfin at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Trump is a mesmerizing person. His cult is growing.
posted by argybarg at 6:17 AM on November 6, 2024
posted by argybarg at 6:17 AM on November 6, 2024
According to CNN Harris was +1 among voters 65 and older. Younger people shifted toward Trump, as did Latino men.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:18 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
There are clearly some who will agree with me in this thread and some who won't, but I firmly believe that this one wasn't Kamala's or the Democratic party's loss. It wasn't because she could have been or should have been "better" in some way, other than being a person of generational charisma like Obama.
It was a Trump win. Enough people in this country saw what the GOP was selling, and decided they were buying.
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
We're all going to find out, now.
Most of what's coming is not going to happen very fast, but one thing absolutely will. Moneyed interests (big corporations and media) are going to be absolutely tripping over themselves and each other to get in line. I can hear the clamor of it already.
posted by tclark at 6:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [44 favorites]
It was a Trump win. Enough people in this country saw what the GOP was selling, and decided they were buying.
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
We're all going to find out, now.
Most of what's coming is not going to happen very fast, but one thing absolutely will. Moneyed interests (big corporations and media) are going to be absolutely tripping over themselves and each other to get in line. I can hear the clamor of it already.
posted by tclark at 6:19 AM on November 6, 2024 [44 favorites]
I don't put this at Kamala's feet - I don't know who else with the D's could have run the campaign as well as she did. It's just that half the country is full of hate and those fuckers voted.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [33 favorites]
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [33 favorites]
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Sure in 2016 but he's a known quantity now.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
Sure in 2016 but he's a known quantity now.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
Most of the high-effort and charismatic evils Trump is promising (executing his enemies, mass deportations, banning vaccines, shutting down media) won’t happen. They just involve too much effort, and Trump is lazy. But imposing punitive tariffs and having CEOs beg him for exemptions will. He loves to make people beg. The result with be a corrupt oligarchy like Russia.
Meanwhile, people are too fascinated by Trump to let him go. They didn’t want to turn the page; they can’t take their eyes off the page.
posted by argybarg at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
Meanwhile, people are too fascinated by Trump to let him go. They didn’t want to turn the page; they can’t take their eyes off the page.
posted by argybarg at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
those of you thinking the institutions will save us, the republicans will control every branch. Congress, senate, presidency, supreme courts. They didn’t have that full control last time. I fully expect the full reset of the new deal that the federalist society has been working for to happen in the first year. There will be a midterm backlash, but it will be too late. No more NLRB, no more CFPB, hell why not get rid of the SEC, EPA too, privatization of Social Security and Medicare, a national abortion ban, a return of sodomy laws. And so on
posted by dis_integration at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [22 favorites]
I will say I can't imagine what it will be like to have Robert Kennedy Jr. in charge of NIH and the CDC.
I guess the plus side of a Trump administration is that they don't care at all what they promised 10 minutes ago. RFK is yesterday's news: those agencies are owned by the drug companies now.
It was always a coin-flip, and it landed the wrong side up. It's not entirely unexpected, just shockingly horrible.
I did plan for this outcome, and it was to cancel every subscription I have, and not look at any news for years. I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
posted by netowl at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
I guess the plus side of a Trump administration is that they don't care at all what they promised 10 minutes ago. RFK is yesterday's news: those agencies are owned by the drug companies now.
It was always a coin-flip, and it landed the wrong side up. It's not entirely unexpected, just shockingly horrible.
I did plan for this outcome, and it was to cancel every subscription I have, and not look at any news for years. I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
posted by netowl at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Reminder from Niko Stratis, a trans Canadian writer about "well, I''m just going to escape to Canada" folks.
I'm deeply disappointed in these results, but not surprised. I shouldn't be surprised. A majority of Americans want to be grifted, they want to be promised that everything is not their fault but the fault of fictionalized liberal party that wants to take away their freedoms, I guess? And fuck the rest of us, I guess?
I dunno. I got no answers. All I can do now is step up my own actions for preventing this from happening here. I may well fail at that but at least I can try.
I am so sorry, guys. I really thought a lot of folks weren't stupid enough to fall for the 2024 grift. Christ.
posted by Kitteh at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I'm deeply disappointed in these results, but not surprised. I shouldn't be surprised. A majority of Americans want to be grifted, they want to be promised that everything is not their fault but the fault of fictionalized liberal party that wants to take away their freedoms, I guess? And fuck the rest of us, I guess?
I dunno. I got no answers. All I can do now is step up my own actions for preventing this from happening here. I may well fail at that but at least I can try.
I am so sorry, guys. I really thought a lot of folks weren't stupid enough to fall for the 2024 grift. Christ.
posted by Kitteh at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
god fucking damn it
posted by clockzero at 6:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
posted by clockzero at 6:30 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
I don't think Harris represented a positive change to many voters, or indeed any change other than not being senile. If you liked the way things were going under Biden, you liked her. If you hated the way things had been going under Trump, you probably didn't especially like the way things had been going under Biden but you would have voted for him -- drool cup or no drool cup -- and so you would have voted for her. I did! That was me!
But I would be the last person to say "I'm not Donald Trump" is inspirational. And the few specifics Harris pushed out were not inspirational, to me -- her housing plans sounded like a recipe for more of the gentrification that is destroying American life for middle class people, her proud endorsement of our "most lethal" military in the world didn't exactly have me doing jazz hands at the TV, and then, you know, Gaza. I don't think America is losing a great potential president, to be really honest. I think America is losing a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide. Unfortunately, however, I think America is gaining a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide, who has already shown himself to be the worst president in a century. Can he go for the all time record? I think he can pull it off.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:31 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
But I would be the last person to say "I'm not Donald Trump" is inspirational. And the few specifics Harris pushed out were not inspirational, to me -- her housing plans sounded like a recipe for more of the gentrification that is destroying American life for middle class people, her proud endorsement of our "most lethal" military in the world didn't exactly have me doing jazz hands at the TV, and then, you know, Gaza. I don't think America is losing a great potential president, to be really honest. I think America is losing a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide. Unfortunately, however, I think America is gaining a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide, who has already shown himself to be the worst president in a century. Can he go for the all time record? I think he can pull it off.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:31 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
My question is, what is the democratic tentpole policies going forward?
None of the cards they played had any pull:
Trump's crimes.
Jan 6
Climate Change
Equality
Abortion (sure, some states may have passed something, but they aren't counting on Democrats to uphold their rights. In most states, it didn't play.)
Trans/LGBTQ eqality
House leadership disarray
Celebrity endorsements (Swift, Beyonce, etc movie stars have less pull than Elon and DJT)
Green energy
Supreme Court malfeasance
College loans forgiveness
NATO/America's place ensuring the safety of the world
COVID killing off elderly DJT supporters: nope. nobody cares about COVID anymore.
income inequality
Nobody cared about any of this stuff, in terms of moving the national needle for elections. I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
posted by The_Vegetables at 6:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
My question is, what is the democratic tentpole policies going forward?
None of the cards they played had any pull:
Trump's crimes.
Jan 6
Climate Change
Equality
Abortion (sure, some states may have passed something, but they aren't counting on Democrats to uphold their rights. In most states, it didn't play.)
Trans/LGBTQ eqality
House leadership disarray
Celebrity endorsements (Swift, Beyonce, etc movie stars have less pull than Elon and DJT)
Green energy
Supreme Court malfeasance
College loans forgiveness
NATO/America's place ensuring the safety of the world
COVID killing off elderly DJT supporters: nope. nobody cares about COVID anymore.
income inequality
Nobody cared about any of this stuff, in terms of moving the national needle for elections. I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
posted by The_Vegetables at 6:33 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
Take care of yourselves, everybody. Relax, take deep breaths, and care for your community. 🫂🫂🫂
posted by honey badger at 6:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by honey badger at 6:35 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
>And what people saw was a failure to do anything about student loans, a failure to punish Trump, a failure to hold any leadership accountable for January 6th, the complete loss of any moral high ground by arming a state executing a genocide, and no serious attempts to do anything about the supreme court.
wanting your own Personal Führer is great and all, but unsustainable. Now it's time to pay the Man. And He. Will. Be. Paid.
posted by torokunai at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
wanting your own Personal Führer is great and all, but unsustainable. Now it's time to pay the Man. And He. Will. Be. Paid.
posted by torokunai at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [1 favorite]
The sentiment I'm seeing from some of my pro-Trump "friends" on SM is - they aren't delighted that Trump won, but they were worried about inflation, the economy, anti-semitism, Gaza, that kind of thing, and they're hopeful for a "better future".
That tracks with what people are analyzing here and why people voted for Trump over Harris. It's the economy, stupid — to reference 1992, just flipped.
I'm numb and processing this, but that does give me a tiny glimmer of hope. Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA. They're tired of the establishment. They probably cringe when seeing Trump talk, but figure he's all blubber and no real substance. They're thinking short-term and neglecting to think long-term and see the bigger picture.
I guess that's what will get me through the day, anyway. Copium/hopium and all that.
posted by dubious_dude at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
That tracks with what people are analyzing here and why people voted for Trump over Harris. It's the economy, stupid — to reference 1992, just flipped.
I'm numb and processing this, but that does give me a tiny glimmer of hope. Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA. They're tired of the establishment. They probably cringe when seeing Trump talk, but figure he's all blubber and no real substance. They're thinking short-term and neglecting to think long-term and see the bigger picture.
I guess that's what will get me through the day, anyway. Copium/hopium and all that.
posted by dubious_dude at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Mod note: For those looking to take their mind off a things for a bit, brainwanes made a post with "a few short fantasy stories about strangers joining forces to save each other, win vengeance, and discover tenderness."
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:38 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
kewb The thing is, the Democrats have a potential simple, easy, and TRUE, story to tell that might work:
"Things are bad, prices are high, and that's because of billionaire parasites taking all the hard work you do and giving you crumbs. I can't make prices go down, but I can raise your wages, force the parasites to take a loss to pay you more instead of raising prices to keep you poor, and tax those parasites so you have enough money."
They just don't use it because they can't go against their billionaire donor class.
Harris couldn't run on that because it's laughably bullshit. There's no way the Democratic Party is going to push through a massive wage increase, temporary price freeze, and massive billionaire tax and everyone knows it.
So Trump gets the benefit of not needing to be even remotely honest or say things related to reality. He can be up there saying prices are too high and he's going to lower them and no one will ever ask how the hell he intends to do that.
If Harris had said she'd bring prices down then she'd have been hit with a) why didn't Biden do it, and b) lulz you know you can't.
I don't know, and right now I'm so mad I hope gas its $20 a gallon for no reason except it will make all those assholes in giant trucks covered in Trump stickers suffer.
posted by sotonohito at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
"Things are bad, prices are high, and that's because of billionaire parasites taking all the hard work you do and giving you crumbs. I can't make prices go down, but I can raise your wages, force the parasites to take a loss to pay you more instead of raising prices to keep you poor, and tax those parasites so you have enough money."
They just don't use it because they can't go against their billionaire donor class.
Harris couldn't run on that because it's laughably bullshit. There's no way the Democratic Party is going to push through a massive wage increase, temporary price freeze, and massive billionaire tax and everyone knows it.
So Trump gets the benefit of not needing to be even remotely honest or say things related to reality. He can be up there saying prices are too high and he's going to lower them and no one will ever ask how the hell he intends to do that.
If Harris had said she'd bring prices down then she'd have been hit with a) why didn't Biden do it, and b) lulz you know you can't.
I don't know, and right now I'm so mad I hope gas its $20 a gallon for no reason except it will make all those assholes in giant trucks covered in Trump stickers suffer.
posted by sotonohito at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [38 favorites]
Markets have been open for 7 minutes and the S&P500 is up over 2 percent. That's all that matters, right?
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
May I recommend for listening to this morning...
Jarvis Cocker - (C*nts Are Still) Running the World
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
Jarvis Cocker - (C*nts Are Still) Running the World
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2024 [3 favorites]
I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
This seems prescient. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for perseverating on the fact we still do not have actual election returns yet, and nobody has conceded.
The inconsistent maps and guessed-at numbers across the various screens last night felt like information poison.
posted by edithkeeler at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
This seems prescient. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for perseverating on the fact we still do not have actual election returns yet, and nobody has conceded.
The inconsistent maps and guessed-at numbers across the various screens last night felt like information poison.
posted by edithkeeler at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
None of the cards they played had any pull
I think it's because enough of America wants fascism, and we're all going to get it. It's no accident that within a decade or so after the last living memories of fascism departed from the Earth that people in the US -- and all over the world, note particularly the rise of AfD, Meloni, Wilders even in relatively progressive Europe -- figure it's time to try it again.
I said it here and elsewhere before: the new US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany. It's going to look more like a hybrid of Francoist Spain (bulk replacement of government bureaucracy with theocratic weirdos) and Putinist Russia (well taken care of oligarchs running corrupt niche economic fiefdoms who will be allowed to stay on the right side of the window so long as they stay in line and don't make the boss look bad).
posted by tclark at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
I think it's because enough of America wants fascism, and we're all going to get it. It's no accident that within a decade or so after the last living memories of fascism departed from the Earth that people in the US -- and all over the world, note particularly the rise of AfD, Meloni, Wilders even in relatively progressive Europe -- figure it's time to try it again.
I said it here and elsewhere before: the new US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany. It's going to look more like a hybrid of Francoist Spain (bulk replacement of government bureaucracy with theocratic weirdos) and Putinist Russia (well taken care of oligarchs running corrupt niche economic fiefdoms who will be allowed to stay on the right side of the window so long as they stay in line and don't make the boss look bad).
posted by tclark at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
Social media troll agitprop, a great deal of it Russian in origin. Like this account. And this one. Filled with non-stop vitriolic anti-Democrat messaging. Zero anti-Trump messaging. Stumping for Stein and BRICS. With the occasional anti-Ukraine and anti-Taiwan message mixed in.
Dearborn Michigan, for example, voted 33% for Jill Stein over Democratic support for Israel.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Social media troll agitprop, a great deal of it Russian in origin. Like this account. And this one. Filled with non-stop vitriolic anti-Democrat messaging. Zero anti-Trump messaging. Stumping for Stein and BRICS. With the occasional anti-Ukraine and anti-Taiwan message mixed in.
Dearborn Michigan, for example, voted 33% for Jill Stein over Democratic support for Israel.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
sotonohito:
No one would buy that. I don’t buy it. It sounds like someone trying to sound like a populist.
posted by argybarg at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
No one would buy that. I don’t buy it. It sounds like someone trying to sound like a populist.
posted by argybarg at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [2 favorites]
Well, fuck...
Stopped watching last night, before things went really bad.
FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
Stopped watching last night, before things went really bad.
FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
neither aaron nor moses saw the promised land. i will not either. i will be okay with this.
posted by i used to be someone else at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by i used to be someone else at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA
The problem is, it doesn't matter what someone's motivations for supporting Trump are, be it passively or actively. It still has the same consequence.
You know the old story about how in Germany, there is a word for the folks who didn't support Hitler out of genuine antisemitism, but did so because they were worried about the economy, or the communists, or whatever? They call them "Nazis", because no one cares about their reasons, anymore.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2024 [42 favorites]
Folks in here wroth about third parties when the margins we are seeing show that they did not make one whit of difference... the binkie-like fixation on something that literally does not numerically matter doesn't inspire confidence in your judgment as an adult.
Solidarity to affected people who are frightened and regrouping today.
posted by dusty potato at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
Solidarity to affected people who are frightened and regrouping today.
posted by dusty potato at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [12 favorites]
A new Trump nickname coined on another web forum site: "Groper Cleveland".
posted by zaixfeep at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
posted by zaixfeep at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2024 [8 favorites]
Welcome to the Jackpot.
posted by tclark at 6:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
posted by tclark at 6:43 AM on November 6, 2024 [16 favorites]
Stupid people win. Because there are more of them.
posted by valkane at 6:44 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by valkane at 6:44 AM on November 6, 2024 [4 favorites]
We’re a country of white supremacy, racism, and staggering misogyny. It’s…. Bracing … to know that half the citizens primary motivation in their lives is to inflict as much suffering as possible on people they have no interaction with,
no matter what the cost to themselves, their close ones, and of course those that will suffer (yea yea I know a lot don’t vote but it doesn’t change anything).
And that same half seems to have a bone deep desire to be ruled by the powerful.
posted by WatTylerJr at 6:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
no matter what the cost to themselves, their close ones, and of course those that will suffer (yea yea I know a lot don’t vote but it doesn’t change anything).
And that same half seems to have a bone deep desire to be ruled by the powerful.
posted by WatTylerJr at 6:45 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
I’m so sorry about your arsehole neighbours. Bloody awful day.
May the next four years pass quickly and with minimal damage.
posted by h00py at 6:47 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
May the next four years pass quickly and with minimal damage.
posted by h00py at 6:47 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
The sentiment I'm seeing from some of my pro-Trump "friends" on SM is - they aren't delighted that Trump won, but they were worried about inflation, the economy, anti-semitism, Gaza, that kind of thing, and they're hopeful for a "better future".
Oh, there are people who are delighted Trump won. There's one such friend on a (D) friend of mine on SM who is positively gleeful. This dude even reached out to a second cousin of mine to talk smack with her about me and sent me a screenshot to say "see, your family can't stand you, suck it libs".
So what. He said he sent it to my DMs "so I don't embarrass you" and I posted it with a note that I didn't care, she was someone I met once when I was about seven; and what did it say of HIM that that's how he was spending this win?
....The real fallout came at work today; we've been trying to hire some staff at the clinic where I work. One was due to come in for a second interview today, but called me this morning to withdraw her application. The main reason was the schedule....but she did add that the election outcome had her a little uneasy about working at our clinic. So now this clinic, which is catering to women for all their health needs, might have difficulty finding staff because of ONE procedure we do.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [24 favorites]
Oh, there are people who are delighted Trump won. There's one such friend on a (D) friend of mine on SM who is positively gleeful. This dude even reached out to a second cousin of mine to talk smack with her about me and sent me a screenshot to say "see, your family can't stand you, suck it libs".
So what. He said he sent it to my DMs "so I don't embarrass you" and I posted it with a note that I didn't care, she was someone I met once when I was about seven; and what did it say of HIM that that's how he was spending this win?
....The real fallout came at work today; we've been trying to hire some staff at the clinic where I work. One was due to come in for a second interview today, but called me this morning to withdraw her application. The main reason was the schedule....but she did add that the election outcome had her a little uneasy about working at our clinic. So now this clinic, which is catering to women for all their health needs, might have difficulty finding staff because of ONE procedure we do.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [24 favorites]
...It was that FUCKING SQUIRREL, wasn't it?
posted by delfin at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
posted by delfin at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2024 [10 favorites]
While I only canvassed a handful of times, which – given how many people don't open the door – means I only managed to talk to maybe a dozen undecided voters, the experience confirmed reporting I've consumed that suggests the term "swing voter"' is misguided. It imagines a left pole and a right pole, and a voter who hangs in the middle who may be swayed more one direction or another. But, the undecided voters I talked with didn't have any consistency in terms of which issues were top of mind, and they themselves were pretty diverse in terms of gender, race, etc. As people have already pointed out, the Harris campaign (which was largely just the Biden campaign - she basically kept his whole misguided team) ran a typical DNC play for "the center." But that only works if undecided voters are all in the middle. And it obviously does sometimes work - but it's risky. A better strategy is finding a message/vision for the future that can speak to a broad range of people.
Of course, Harris didn't have a ton of time to come up with a compelling story about her campaign - if I blame any individuals more than others for what has happened, it's Biden and his inner circle. May he be haunted by his egotism and never get another good night's rest.
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Finally - you can't hide from your weaknesses. Harris and co. kept saying "When we fight, we win!" but the campaign largely avoided fights until towards the end of the campaign when it was probably too late. In the beginning Harris seemed bold, she picked Walz who seemed a good fighter - and then he largely disappeared. Rallies are fine, but rallies are mainly attended by the already converted. Meanwhile, lots of voters wondered "Why hasn't Harris done the things she says she wants to do if she was VP for four years?" We (the largely educated and progressive users of Metafilter) can pick the holes in that question, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a major question top of many voters minds, but the campaign kept dodging it. I think the shadow of COVID came up once by Walz in the debate, but generally the word seemed taboo - I understand why, but I think it was a mistake - people quickly forget that the first couple of years of the Biden-Harris administration was focused on the pandemic and the IRA. Then they lost control of the House. Why they avoided explaining this to voters strikes me as a larger mistake than her refusal to engage with voters concerned with the genocide in Gaza, though that was also a mistake.
posted by coffeecat at 6:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
Of course, Harris didn't have a ton of time to come up with a compelling story about her campaign - if I blame any individuals more than others for what has happened, it's Biden and his inner circle. May he be haunted by his egotism and never get another good night's rest.
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Finally - you can't hide from your weaknesses. Harris and co. kept saying "When we fight, we win!" but the campaign largely avoided fights until towards the end of the campaign when it was probably too late. In the beginning Harris seemed bold, she picked Walz who seemed a good fighter - and then he largely disappeared. Rallies are fine, but rallies are mainly attended by the already converted. Meanwhile, lots of voters wondered "Why hasn't Harris done the things she says she wants to do if she was VP for four years?" We (the largely educated and progressive users of Metafilter) can pick the holes in that question, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a major question top of many voters minds, but the campaign kept dodging it. I think the shadow of COVID came up once by Walz in the debate, but generally the word seemed taboo - I understand why, but I think it was a mistake - people quickly forget that the first couple of years of the Biden-Harris administration was focused on the pandemic and the IRA. Then they lost control of the House. Why they avoided explaining this to voters strikes me as a larger mistake than her refusal to engage with voters concerned with the genocide in Gaza, though that was also a mistake.
posted by coffeecat at 6:50 AM on November 6, 2024 [11 favorites]
US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany
With Theil and Musk given free reign, we can expect a social credit system to emerge, scraped from social media. Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments. It would be very wise to lock that shit down ASAP if you can.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
With Theil and Musk given free reign, we can expect a social credit system to emerge, scraped from social media. Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments. It would be very wise to lock that shit down ASAP if you can.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:51 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
I guess at this point the real question is how much Project 2025 can actually be implemented. CAN he actually fire ten zillion federal workers and replace them with MAGA cultists, or is that just wishful thinking on their part?
argybarg That was kind of my point. No one would believe it because the Democrats are self evidently NOT going to do that, don't want to do that, and will never do that.
Trump can lie about it becuase no one expects him to be honest.
posted by sotonohito at 6:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
argybarg That was kind of my point. No one would believe it because the Democrats are self evidently NOT going to do that, don't want to do that, and will never do that.
Trump can lie about it becuase no one expects him to be honest.
posted by sotonohito at 6:53 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments.
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks.
posted by phunniemee at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks.
posted by phunniemee at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2024 [28 favorites]
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Counterpoint: The only reason the youth in the US were enraged about Palestine was because of social media. There's no way those pro-palestinian messages are getting to people 20 years ago.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
Counterpoint: The only reason the youth in the US were enraged about Palestine was because of social media. There's no way those pro-palestinian messages are getting to people 20 years ago.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure I have anything left but doomerism this morning.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.52% is based on ballots counted so far, but there are almost a million ballots left to count. Turnout will probably be close to 70% of registered voters in WA when counting is done.
National turnout and popular vote numbers are also bogus until the west coast states finish counting all their ballots.
posted by mbrubeck at 6:58 AM on November 6, 2024 [5 favorites]
A friend of mine lives in a red part of my blue state, and spends a lot of time hiking in neighboring states. He says, “you can’t talk politics because they have a completely different frame of reference. They are way down the conspiracy rabbit hole. And they say, ‘Trump is strong. We need a strong president.’ And also, ‘Trump is rich and he’s going to make everyone rich.’”
Some of the people saying this are immigrants.
posted by rednikki at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
Some of the people saying this are immigrants.
posted by rednikki at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [17 favorites]
I mean, I was enraged about Palestine as a youth well before social media existed. As were I'm sure many people on Metafilter. Mass movements existed before social media. I don't think we should embrace a toxic tool just because sometimes it generates something we agree with.
posted by coffeecat at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
It's probably poor compensation for what seems to be a disaster but the reality is that unless they truly go full fascist president for life which I don't think they have the support for this is the last Trump election ever. Whatever ability he has to tap into this inarticulate rage in conservatives seem to be missing from any presumptive successor. Vance is phenomenally unpopular and not charismatic at all so unless Trump does the best job ever has a massive uphill climb for 2028.
The truth is that all of the problems Trump promises to fix aren't fixable given his party's unwillingness to actually govern effectively. They don't have anything resembling a plan to "replace ACA" or solve the economic hardship a lot of Americans face.
What will happen is that your 401k will get a boost over the next 2 years because that's what happens with virtually every presidency and then an inevitable economic downterm will impact years 3 and 4 (hopefully without a worldwide public health emergency attached) and people will want change. For Americans who don't have stocks or significant retirement savings there is really nothing being offered so the economic malaise and uncertainty they feel now will still be there 4 years from now and it will be time for the pendulum to shift yet again.
Regarding Hispanic Males there is 100% going to be a tendency to generalize and engage in reductionism and I strongly encourage people not just go with a simplistic "hispanic culture is attracted to machismo and strongman politics", that might be true for some within that community but I think you can also view it from a perspective that for many hispanic men they closely align with white working class men on a host of demographic elements and that you have to create a value proposition that addresses their wants and fears. Othering them by calling them stupid is not a way to win them back as a core constituent group and in broad areas of the US they are critical. Framing any appeal to them based upon some sort of perceived solidarity with immigrant populations is probably a bad idea as many Hispanic Americans have been Americans for generations and perceive no real connection with recent immigrants of any population group so appeals to "Trump will deport you and your family" just come across as really transparent fearmongering to them.
Honestly until people see that there is an honest attempt to really return to a society where the implied promise is that your children will be more successful than you I think it's going to be a hard time regaining the trust of some of these population groups and combating the "cures" offered by right-wing demagogues. Right now a lot of Americans don't percieve a way to achieve the American dream no matter how hard they work and until you provide a path towards solving that problem they will continue to latch onto people that are selling them snake oil because desperate people will always buy snake oil.
posted by vuron at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
The truth is that all of the problems Trump promises to fix aren't fixable given his party's unwillingness to actually govern effectively. They don't have anything resembling a plan to "replace ACA" or solve the economic hardship a lot of Americans face.
What will happen is that your 401k will get a boost over the next 2 years because that's what happens with virtually every presidency and then an inevitable economic downterm will impact years 3 and 4 (hopefully without a worldwide public health emergency attached) and people will want change. For Americans who don't have stocks or significant retirement savings there is really nothing being offered so the economic malaise and uncertainty they feel now will still be there 4 years from now and it will be time for the pendulum to shift yet again.
Regarding Hispanic Males there is 100% going to be a tendency to generalize and engage in reductionism and I strongly encourage people not just go with a simplistic "hispanic culture is attracted to machismo and strongman politics", that might be true for some within that community but I think you can also view it from a perspective that for many hispanic men they closely align with white working class men on a host of demographic elements and that you have to create a value proposition that addresses their wants and fears. Othering them by calling them stupid is not a way to win them back as a core constituent group and in broad areas of the US they are critical. Framing any appeal to them based upon some sort of perceived solidarity with immigrant populations is probably a bad idea as many Hispanic Americans have been Americans for generations and perceive no real connection with recent immigrants of any population group so appeals to "Trump will deport you and your family" just come across as really transparent fearmongering to them.
Honestly until people see that there is an honest attempt to really return to a society where the implied promise is that your children will be more successful than you I think it's going to be a hard time regaining the trust of some of these population groups and combating the "cures" offered by right-wing demagogues. Right now a lot of Americans don't percieve a way to achieve the American dream no matter how hard they work and until you provide a path towards solving that problem they will continue to latch onto people that are selling them snake oil because desperate people will always buy snake oil.
posted by vuron at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [18 favorites]
I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
I heard an analysis this morning on CBC that did speak to me.
It was that no one trusts politicians, and so right now whoever sounds the least like a politician gets a bunch of support. I think here in Canada Justin Trudeau is making this mistake over and over (and so is Jagmeet Singh, and the Ontario Liberals and NDP.) I think this explains the NDP win in Manitoba too, so it's not just a right/left thing.
It's stylistic populism. Maybe someone will latch on to sounding different for the next cycle. (Not up here in time, I don't think, unless JT resigns which he clearly is not about it.)
posted by warriorqueen at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
I heard an analysis this morning on CBC that did speak to me.
It was that no one trusts politicians, and so right now whoever sounds the least like a politician gets a bunch of support. I think here in Canada Justin Trudeau is making this mistake over and over (and so is Jagmeet Singh, and the Ontario Liberals and NDP.) I think this explains the NDP win in Manitoba too, so it's not just a right/left thing.
It's stylistic populism. Maybe someone will latch on to sounding different for the next cycle. (Not up here in time, I don't think, unless JT resigns which he clearly is not about it.)
posted by warriorqueen at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
i think we need to face the truth - we do not have an effective opposition party in this country - we will not win until we get one and the democratic party is not it
also - the republicans are going to find that they don't have an effective governing party either - they will split over many things, including immigration - the truth is the business interests are profiting a lot from the current immigration mess and the extremists who want everyone out are going to be betrayed
truth is the world is going to be a vastly different place in 4 years and who knows what's going to happen except that we won't have a government or an opposition who will be up to it
posted by pyramid termite at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
also - the republicans are going to find that they don't have an effective governing party either - they will split over many things, including immigration - the truth is the business interests are profiting a lot from the current immigration mess and the extremists who want everyone out are going to be betrayed
truth is the world is going to be a vastly different place in 4 years and who knows what's going to happen except that we won't have a government or an opposition who will be up to it
posted by pyramid termite at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2024 [14 favorites]
Why should moderates offer an olive branch to extremists when it's clear that we were betrayed from within, shouldn't it be the other way around?
As much as I would love it if the democratic party suddenly embraced the idea that it's not the Reagan Republican Lite! Party and actually stood somewhere to the left of Mitt Romney, even just a little, I'm not seeing any evidence that this would actually win them an election. We can't know how many people abstained from the election because they thought Harris was too right-wing -- it could literally be any number between 20 million and zero -- but we know how many people voted for ostensibly left-wing third party candidates. It wasn't enough to make Harris the winner if they'd voted for her. I hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to come up with some other reason why Harris lost; it's not the leftists.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
As much as I would love it if the democratic party suddenly embraced the idea that it's not the Reagan Republican Lite! Party and actually stood somewhere to the left of Mitt Romney, even just a little, I'm not seeing any evidence that this would actually win them an election. We can't know how many people abstained from the election because they thought Harris was too right-wing -- it could literally be any number between 20 million and zero -- but we know how many people voted for ostensibly left-wing third party candidates. It wasn't enough to make Harris the winner if they'd voted for her. I hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to come up with some other reason why Harris lost; it's not the leftists.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:01 AM on November 6, 2024 [15 favorites]
On a different note -
I'm seeing a lot of defeatism in this thread, and I get that - I feel pretty forlorn too. But we haven't descended into fascism yet, even if we live in a country that elected a fascist. If anything gives me any hope right now, it's that just like the GOP is (unfortunately) better prepped for a second Trump presidency, so is the grassroots on the left. The sheer number of people who volunteered for Harris suggests that there are a lot of people right now with energy to fight against what Trump represents. I'm not a pollyanna (believe me), I feel in my bones that things are certainly going to be bad in the near future, but how bad is still to be determined. We all still have some agency here, however constrained it may be.
posted by coffeecat at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
I'm seeing a lot of defeatism in this thread, and I get that - I feel pretty forlorn too. But we haven't descended into fascism yet, even if we live in a country that elected a fascist. If anything gives me any hope right now, it's that just like the GOP is (unfortunately) better prepped for a second Trump presidency, so is the grassroots on the left. The sheer number of people who volunteered for Harris suggests that there are a lot of people right now with energy to fight against what Trump represents. I'm not a pollyanna (believe me), I feel in my bones that things are certainly going to be bad in the near future, but how bad is still to be determined. We all still have some agency here, however constrained it may be.
posted by coffeecat at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [29 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed for telling another user to fuck off. That goes against the guidelines, do not do that.
And please keep the Palestine and Gaza discussion civil. It’s been discussed for months, no need to be nasty to one another.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
And please keep the Palestine and Gaza discussion civil. It’s been discussed for months, no need to be nasty to one another.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2024 [13 favorites]
The thing is, the Democrats have a potential simple, easy, and TRUE, story to tell that might work:
I'll start my response with the caveat that nobody knows anything, and the myriad conflicting theories we've seen over the past day sort of prove that.
I do think this election was about stories, and that Trump has a strong, adaptable, and mythic story. We like myths! The whole problem with inflation is, people like myths and so don't understand the real story is boring and complicated. Inflation is bad--so punishing our enemies with tariffs must be good! I think we've all had these conversations with people, where we've realized their political opinions don't seem to have any grounding in reality.
But I struggle to think of what Harris's story was. Like, you could be mean and say it was "Let's have more Biden!" But in a mythic story, you start over here, and then there's a great change, and you end up over there. What was that story? Maybe we could say the story was, "Once there was a monster named Trump, and only one woman can stop him"--which of course is a story we heard before. But that story doesn't explain why things feel bad now, and doesn't resonate with our anti-incumbency bias. We needed a story about Biden. We knew half of it--once there was a weak old man. But Harris would not or could not tell the second half of that story. Could she have won with a story like that?
I'm not sure "billionaires are bad" is a good story. We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land. We still all hope to be lottery winners one day. "Immigrants are bad" is a story that we've seen illustrated by both parties for decades, and so it has the benefit of familiarity--outsiders we can get mad at.
Maybe--and again, this is just another dumb random person on the internet with a random theory--we can trace the narrative problem back to the COVID checks. The whole thing where we thought Biden was going to send X dollars but he really sent Y instead. "I am a generous, beneficent leader giving you presents with both hands" is an interesting story we haven't seen much. People have made the point that Harris was promising small changes around the margins. Maybe the promise should have been bountiful generosity. "Once there was a weak old man named Biden who wouldn't give you things, but I, your mother-figure, will give you everything you need."
But...well. I guess that doesn't matter now.
posted by mittens at 7:07 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
I'll start my response with the caveat that nobody knows anything, and the myriad conflicting theories we've seen over the past day sort of prove that.
I do think this election was about stories, and that Trump has a strong, adaptable, and mythic story. We like myths! The whole problem with inflation is, people like myths and so don't understand the real story is boring and complicated. Inflation is bad--so punishing our enemies with tariffs must be good! I think we've all had these conversations with people, where we've realized their political opinions don't seem to have any grounding in reality.
But I struggle to think of what Harris's story was. Like, you could be mean and say it was "Let's have more Biden!" But in a mythic story, you start over here, and then there's a great change, and you end up over there. What was that story? Maybe we could say the story was, "Once there was a monster named Trump, and only one woman can stop him"--which of course is a story we heard before. But that story doesn't explain why things feel bad now, and doesn't resonate with our anti-incumbency bias. We needed a story about Biden. We knew half of it--once there was a weak old man. But Harris would not or could not tell the second half of that story. Could she have won with a story like that?
I'm not sure "billionaires are bad" is a good story. We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land. We still all hope to be lottery winners one day. "Immigrants are bad" is a story that we've seen illustrated by both parties for decades, and so it has the benefit of familiarity--outsiders we can get mad at.
Maybe--and again, this is just another dumb random person on the internet with a random theory--we can trace the narrative problem back to the COVID checks. The whole thing where we thought Biden was going to send X dollars but he really sent Y instead. "I am a generous, beneficent leader giving you presents with both hands" is an interesting story we haven't seen much. People have made the point that Harris was promising small changes around the margins. Maybe the promise should have been bountiful generosity. "Once there was a weak old man named Biden who wouldn't give you things, but I, your mother-figure, will give you everything you need."
But...well. I guess that doesn't matter now.
posted by mittens at 7:07 AM on November 6, 2024 [7 favorites]
There's probably no greater example of political ignorance than to think that student loan forgiveness is a winning issue. It is enraging to most people who paid off their student loans, worked their way through college, paid for their kids' college out of pocket, got their tuition paid for past (GI Bill) or future (ROTC, service academy) military service, and/or fought their way to a decent living without going to college.
posted by MattD at 7:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by MattD at 7:10 AM on November 6, 2024 [9 favorites]
this is what people want, there is no version of this the
posted by whatevernot at 3:15 AM on November 5, 2024 [30 favorites]