The Arctic Seed Vault Shows the Flawed Logic of Climate Adaptation
November 9, 2024 6:22 AM Subscribe
"It’s smart to plan for the future. But the seed vault assumes that we know enough to plan effectively and that people will pay attention to what we know. History shows this is often not the case."
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-term_nuclear_waste_warning_messages.
As I mentioned elsewhere, I'm currently reading the SF classic A Canticle for Leibowitz. A significant part of the plot revolves around preservation of parts of the past that the characters do not understand. This has happened historically with texts copied by illiterate or barely literate scribes, etc., but it's interesting/horrifying to think about what we can't plan for in terms of food, agriculture, and related tech, and what knowledge loss may occur more rapidly than we think.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-term_nuclear_waste_warning_messages.
As I mentioned elsewhere, I'm currently reading the SF classic A Canticle for Leibowitz. A significant part of the plot revolves around preservation of parts of the past that the characters do not understand. This has happened historically with texts copied by illiterate or barely literate scribes, etc., but it's interesting/horrifying to think about what we can't plan for in terms of food, agriculture, and related tech, and what knowledge loss may occur more rapidly than we think.
It's worth nooting that the Svalbard seed vault has already been used to restore genetic diversity otherwise lost during the Syrian war. Having a global repository is a good idea, if imperfectly implemented.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:18 AM on November 9 [12 favorites]
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:18 AM on November 9 [12 favorites]
This article omits a couple of important facts about the Seed Vault - after the flood it was re-engineered with more failsafes to prevent future floods. Also it's a back-up to other seed storage - everything there is a dupe that is also backed up someplace else. Is it flawless? No - definitely not but we need to be doing more things to preserve what we seem to be too short-sighted to protect in the more immediate term.
I've been there a couple times and have an article in press about it so definitely have opinions on the subject.
posted by leslies at 1:19 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
I've been there a couple times and have an article in press about it so definitely have opinions on the subject.
posted by leslies at 1:19 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
Oh COOL! I hope you post to MetaFilter when it's available, leslies.
For clarity's sake, I am definitely not anti-seed vault. I thought the article was interesting, and I've been researching seed vaults and storage for various biological materials associated with something I'm writing. This is one of many things I've read about them lately, and it seemed both less technical and more specific than a lot of the other stuff I've been reading.
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:24 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
For clarity's sake, I am definitely not anti-seed vault. I thought the article was interesting, and I've been researching seed vaults and storage for various biological materials associated with something I'm writing. This is one of many things I've read about them lately, and it seemed both less technical and more specific than a lot of the other stuff I've been reading.
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:24 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
(Aside: just followed you on Bluesky, leslies. Thank you for sharing your work there!)
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:34 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:34 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
We may have the seed vaults, we may have DNA repositories, we may have the information to halfway re-engineer a workable ecosystem, but we won't have the will or ability left to use any of that. The books will be banned, libraries burnt, the information forgotten, the scientists and doctors murdered by fundamentalists and credulous or ignorant Trumpian followers. Capitalism is the ultimate social evil the US will gift the world. Internecine war may still kill a majority, but if not the bang, we still have the whimper of slow expiration brought about by climate change. One can only hope the last tribe to open the seed vaults will enjoy a small feast as they cook the remainder of the edible seeds.
posted by BlueHorse at 2:27 PM on November 9
posted by BlueHorse at 2:27 PM on November 9
Not long ago, I got to dwelling on the last known hieroglyphic inscription. It’s not too interesting in itself, only in that the priest who wrote it must have been one of the last readers and writers of hieroglyphs. This person’s family appears to have been the last remnants of the Egyptian priestly class, which once ruled an empire.
Did that priest write down his knowledge? Not in stone; if he wrote in papyrus, it vanished long ago. What he used it to do was to praise a god—a newer god, one from farther south. That was what was important to him, what he felt he could accomplish.
He didn’t know what he didn’t know. To be sure, he would have understood how precarious his times were, but his knowledge did not arm him against that. Who could have expected it to?
posted by Countess Elena at 2:28 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
Did that priest write down his knowledge? Not in stone; if he wrote in papyrus, it vanished long ago. What he used it to do was to praise a god—a newer god, one from farther south. That was what was important to him, what he felt he could accomplish.
He didn’t know what he didn’t know. To be sure, he would have understood how precarious his times were, but his knowledge did not arm him against that. Who could have expected it to?
posted by Countess Elena at 2:28 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
A Canticle for Leibowitz is magnificant, cupcakeninja, especially the first and third sections.
posted by doctornemo at 6:40 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
posted by doctornemo at 6:40 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
it's interesting/horrifying to think about what we can't plan for in terms of food, agriculture, and related tech, and what knowledge loss may occur more rapidly than we think.
I had similar thoughts reading this article about a woman who's trying to track down the hundreds of varieties of fruits that used to exist in Italy - partly by looking at Renaissance paintings the old fruit varieties show up in. It's stunning how quickly this stuff can get lost and forgotten once people decide something better has come along.
posted by mstokes650 at 10:04 PM on November 9
I had similar thoughts reading this article about a woman who's trying to track down the hundreds of varieties of fruits that used to exist in Italy - partly by looking at Renaissance paintings the old fruit varieties show up in. It's stunning how quickly this stuff can get lost and forgotten once people decide something better has come along.
posted by mstokes650 at 10:04 PM on November 9
Scholars at the University of British Columbia noted that seeds isolated from the environment do not evolve, so if they are reintroduced decades from now, they may face a natural world to which they are no longer adapted.
I don't think evolution happens on the scale of decades. Yes, conditions may rapidly deteriorate in a way that threatens plant life, but presumably we wouldn't think "oh all the grapes [or w/e] have died, let's get the grape seeds out of the vault and replace them with some identical grapes that will also not survive."
The vault’s focus on seeds also neglects crucially important food crops such as cassava that are not typically propagated through seeds.
The perfect is the enemy of the good. And lots of things don't do everything perfectly. I also don't try to use a screwdriver as a wrench.
And then there is its carbon footprint.
Yes, surely if we didn't have the seed vault all of our carbon problems would be solved.
But the seed vault assumes that we know enough to plan effectively and that people will pay attention to what we know. History shows this is often not the case.
So we definitely shouldn't try, is that it? Come, now.
This article doesn't contain a single objection to the seed vault that strikes me as even remotely well-reasoned. At the very least, if you're going to claim that the 30 million or so euros spent on it are better spent on something else, you should float some ideas of what else.
posted by axiom at 10:06 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
I don't think evolution happens on the scale of decades. Yes, conditions may rapidly deteriorate in a way that threatens plant life, but presumably we wouldn't think "oh all the grapes [or w/e] have died, let's get the grape seeds out of the vault and replace them with some identical grapes that will also not survive."
The vault’s focus on seeds also neglects crucially important food crops such as cassava that are not typically propagated through seeds.
The perfect is the enemy of the good. And lots of things don't do everything perfectly. I also don't try to use a screwdriver as a wrench.
And then there is its carbon footprint.
Yes, surely if we didn't have the seed vault all of our carbon problems would be solved.
But the seed vault assumes that we know enough to plan effectively and that people will pay attention to what we know. History shows this is often not the case.
So we definitely shouldn't try, is that it? Come, now.
This article doesn't contain a single objection to the seed vault that strikes me as even remotely well-reasoned. At the very least, if you're going to claim that the 30 million or so euros spent on it are better spent on something else, you should float some ideas of what else.
posted by axiom at 10:06 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
it's interesting/horrifying to think about what we can't plan for
The unknown unknowns, as it were.
posted by fairmettle at 11:11 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
The unknown unknowns, as it were.
posted by fairmettle at 11:11 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
Seconding A Canticle for Leibowitz, one of the most affecting novels I've read, also consider Earth Abides.
As part of my degree we looked at creating liturgy / practice / ceremony to help our planning and/landscapes survive no matter what - even if only in part, and in spite of the client ( as management ideology may change to indifference, or antipathy, or only want greenwashing in the first place while we need a living future nature). Yes along the lines of nuclear waste site warnings, also building community resistance or lore, and landscape features, plant selection and other things.
More recently several Dark Mountain writers have been exploring the process in valuable way.
posted by unearthed at 12:43 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
As part of my degree we looked at creating liturgy / practice / ceremony to help our planning and/landscapes survive no matter what - even if only in part, and in spite of the client ( as management ideology may change to indifference, or antipathy, or only want greenwashing in the first place while we need a living future nature). Yes along the lines of nuclear waste site warnings, also building community resistance or lore, and landscape features, plant selection and other things.
More recently several Dark Mountain writers have been exploring the process in valuable way.
posted by unearthed at 12:43 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
unearthed, along those last lines I recommend Dougald Hine.
posted by doctornemo at 8:01 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
posted by doctornemo at 8:01 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Evolution absolutely can and does happen in plants on very short time scales and the uhhh selective pressures of climate change mean we’re going to see a lot more of it.
We’ve got lots of examples of it already occurring and most of the current research is on exactly how it’s happening, which populations and species can evolve their way through climate change vs moving or dying, and how we can speed it up or assist (see assisted gene flow vs assisted migration).
I don’t think this at all negates our need for seed vaults, but it does mean we should keep collecting more seeds!!
posted by congen at 8:01 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
We’ve got lots of examples of it already occurring and most of the current research is on exactly how it’s happening, which populations and species can evolve their way through climate change vs moving or dying, and how we can speed it up or assist (see assisted gene flow vs assisted migration).
I don’t think this at all negates our need for seed vaults, but it does mean we should keep collecting more seeds!!
posted by congen at 8:01 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Oops forgot links
Conserving Evolutionary Potential: Combining Landscape Genomics with Established Methods to Inform Plant Conservation
Plant adaptation to climate change—Where are we?
posted by congen at 8:07 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
Conserving Evolutionary Potential: Combining Landscape Genomics with Established Methods to Inform Plant Conservation
Plant adaptation to climate change—Where are we?
posted by congen at 8:07 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
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