And ya know getting them out will be a bloody story
November 13, 2024 8:31 PM   Subscribe

Content Warning: Incredibly ugly upcoming U.S. Politics. Stephen Miller and Donald Trump's public promise for a "bloody story" - plans for sweeping raids and mass deportations of 10 to 20 million people living in America are expected to start when Trump assumes office and begins on day one.

People living all across the United States, from farm camps in the backwaters of Florida to the ethnically diverse neighborhoods of major cities will likely be greviously impacted. Currently it is expected that the combined utilization of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), National Guard, local police, trained and armed civilians and possibly even the US Military will take part in the raids to capture legal and illegal immigrants. Sympathetic police departments will have their funding slashed if they don't participate in the raids.

Surprisingly, some research suggests a majority of Americans support mass deportations and concentration camps, which was reflected in the election results. Whether the popular support continues after it begins depends on the effectiveness of ICE and the Department of Homeland Security's indoctrination and propaganda programs that they have already been preparing for this moment, as well as the mass media's whitewashing of the proceedings as an "affordable housing program," among other things.

So the question is, what can we realistically expect?

ICE's "Citizens Academy" program offers up some clues...
The academy trains civilians to operate multiple firearms, use lethal force, perform surveillance on immigrants, and conduct raids while also acting as a public relations initiative to try and sway public opinion about ICE, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and the HSI unit of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

“We ran Border Patrol Citizen Academies back when I was an agent as well,” Jenn Budd, former Senior Border Patrol Agent, whistleblower, and author of Against the Wall told Unicorn Riot. “The entire goal is to indoctrinate locals into why it’s okay for us to violate people’s rights.”

The training materials that show where to strike people with batons to subdue them are but the tip of the iceberg in terms of violence. While the ICE presentation on using force contains the “Monadnock Baton Chart” (presumably named after baton manufacturer Monadnock) showing the degrees of damage inflicted on a suspect based on where they’re struck with a baton, the majority of this part of Citizens Academy training covers when to use deadly force.
What could happen to the people swept up?

The program is generally portrayed as mass deportations, but already it has become clear that many countries (even Mexico) are expected not to welcome the tidal wave of migrants. Instead, the prison-industrial complex which is being flooded with investment money is gearing up to build large scale prisons and camps to house them. Many of these migrants can be expected to be kept there for years on end, with the Supreme Court supporting indefinite detetion of immigrants, an affirmation of long standing U.S. policy. Slavery in America is still legal in the prison system (even California voter's just reaffirmed) and many companies could stand to make a lot of money off of the cheap workforce.

The prior Trump administration focused on breaking families up, but this time they promise to include everyone in the family, no matter the immigration status, even denaturalization of American citizens.

How will it be payed for?

The operation is projected to cost upwards of $300 billion or much more and this has frequently been cited as a major reason that the invisioned plans will falter. If Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) plans for freeing up $2 trillion of the yearly federal budget succeeds, there appears to be plenty of money to reallocate. Even without these slush funds, Trump has already declared that the operation has "no price tag."

Some recent and historical parallels

In China, many Uyghurs have been put into forced labor prison camps for decades now, and the Xinjiang region has long been at the technological vanguard of state of the art large scale surveillance and population control research and development. American and Western tech companies can take what they have learned in Xinjiang and finally bring it home for wide spread use domestically. During the Holocaust, many "good Germans" helped to report their neighbors, and already Americans are arguing whether it is ethical to call in ICE on theirs.

America has a long history of anti-immigrant campaigns and attacking ethnic communities, including Operation Wetback in 1953-54, the Japanese Internment Camps during WWII and tracing back to events like the Trail of Tears and traditional American slavery, to name a few.

Hoping for the best

While the years of preparation for Project 2025, combined with the GOP's complete control of all of the branches of the federal government suggests things are going to be harder to stop. It is good to remember that for all intents and purposes this will be an unimaginable kakistocracy and the revolving door of grifters is likely to spin even faster than it did during the first Trump administration. Major logistical questions remain - how fast can they actually scale up, for example, or deal with the massively inflated costs, bribes and outright theft chipping away at the budget. The chaos caused by replacing 50,000 federal employees with largely incompetent hacks while gutting government agencies left and right alone will likely slow down any plans significantly due to the complex and tightly coupled systems that make up the US government.

Fortunately the ACLU and many other organizations and Democratic state governments vow to legally fight back against the upcoming operations.

And lastly, it is likely that there will be large scale public action. Whether it is in the form of protests, strikes or imaginative work arounds for whatever crackdowns that are coming, there many Americans who will push back.
posted by rambling wanderlust (97 comments total) 71 users marked this as a favorite
 
Excellent roundup, rambling wanderlust.
posted by alex_skazat at 8:45 PM on November 13 [10 favorites]


Gulag (or Gilead) from sea to shining sea.
I hate these people, and they are now our government in NZ too. They are foul, vile people, a nasty mix of followers of a false religion (Seven Mountains Dominionism / 7M), and extreme libertarians and racists.

Here there is currently a Hīkoi [NZ news site link] or land protest march to Wellington (the Capital) by Māori, as the government is making moves to destroy the founding treaty of Aotearoa/NZ. As the treaty was written to create peace between colonisists and Māori threatening to break it is dangerous.

They want to break or destroy anything nice, sacred, beautiful or kind. Yours are the same as the operating system is the same.
posted by unearthed at 9:24 PM on November 13 [30 favorites]


A very good roundup indeed.

Sometimes, the devil is in the details:
About half of ICE’s 21,000 employees are part of its Homeland Security Investigations unit, which focuses on transnational crime such as drug smuggling and child exploitation rather than immigration enforcement. Several Trump allies said the unit would need to spend more time on immigration. (from the US News link)
So more time spent on immigration enforcement means less time on drug smuggling and child exploitation ...

I think anyone holding a view that Trump's plans for mass deportation will founder on legal challenges is being way too optimistic. He will have learned the difficulty in taking quick action for anything subject to legal challenge and, as with many other aspects of his agenda, will take that action in a way that sidesteps legal action. If people can be dumped across the border quickly enough, legal action will be useless and I think that will be the plan. Whether that will work may depend on how much military power he and his minor demons are prepared to stage at the border. More broadly, he was clearly way out of his depth at the start of his first term, but he's not stupid enough to make the same mistake this time and will be 'smarter' about who he puts into power (ie people who can actually get things done and who also have no moral compass to get in the way). Gutting the public service will only help in this, because it will dramatically reduce the interference he faced from that quarter last time. Last time, he likely didn't even expect to win so wasn't in any way prepared to govern. This time, he has the playbook all written (by others) and ready to implement long before even day 1 - that process is already well underway.
posted by dg at 9:28 PM on November 13 [10 favorites]


I know this makes me a terrible person, but I'd be a lot more concerned about Trump's immigration plans if I lived in Colorado and not Florida. A part of Shorts where people who are likely to be impacted by these policies or have immediate family who are spent the last four years waving their giant Trump flags and staging literal Trump parades frequently.

It should bother me that they're about to find out why fucking around is a bad idea, but something broke in my brain and I simply can't bring myself to care even knowing the level of disinformation and outright brainwashing that got them where they are.
posted by wierdo at 9:31 PM on November 13 [10 favorites]


A part of Florida where...
posted by wierdo at 9:38 PM on November 13


Smaller govt? HA
Many of these migrants can be expected to be kept there for years on end,
hmmm who pays for that ongoing set up?
And now what bright creative useful persons would want to come to the USA?
Are minorities here in the USA good with this plan?Dont they see that we are all less safe with these plans and the bigger picture of all this?
posted by robbyrobs at 9:38 PM on November 13 [4 favorites]


from the house budgetary website, May 13th 2024. note, click here for fiscal whistleblower.
posted by clavdivs at 9:45 PM on November 13 [1 favorite]


Fantastic roundup of a very grim subject. That article on ICE's "citizen academy" was absolutely chilling.
posted by oc-to-po-des at 10:14 PM on November 13 [9 favorites]


Excellent roundup
...
A very good roundup indeed.
Phrasing!
posted by kickingtheground at 10:25 PM on November 13 [22 favorites]


So are you guys ready for a General Strike yet?

You might want to stock up on some food and stuff and get ready to resist.

And to be honest I'm not even sure a total general strike is going to do anything to this class and scale of kleptocracy at this point.
posted by loquacious at 10:35 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]


If we had the numbers for a general strike to be anything at all we’d have won the fucking election.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:42 PM on November 13 [90 favorites]


> Phrasing!

(nervously) a um uh: good concentration to read while in internment before Jan 20th, to share with my whole family before we all are broken up after the Holidays?

WW III has already started hasn't it
posted by alex_skazat at 11:03 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]


> If we had the numbers for a general strike to be anything at all we’d have won the fucking election.

Maybe a focus on labor issues will help people see why they should vote.
posted by constraint at 11:08 PM on November 13 [7 favorites]


My immediate thought is to ask what the plan of the Trump administration is when the economy immediately tanks? That's going to be the very swift result of pulling 20 million people out of the country.
posted by deadwax at 11:36 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]


Surprisingly

Citation needed.
posted by pompomtom at 12:34 AM on November 14 [5 favorites]


My immediate thought is to ask what the plan of the Trump administration is when the economy immediately tanks?
Ensure as much grift as possible ends up in their own pockets and those of their billionaire backers? Free workers in the camps, lower wages cost for their companies if people are hungry and desperate! And of course, it's all the fault of the immigrants/being so unfairly punished by china/something something trans people.
These guys don't think their staff actually DO anything important; see Musk firing 80% of the staff at Twitter.

The really dark thought is what they might decide to do when the cost of the internment camps for millions is soaring and other countries e.g. Mexico refuse to take non-nationals. Military incursion across the border to dump south americans generally? Or something even worse? There are no limits left except their own incompetence.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:50 AM on November 14 [10 favorites]


Well, well
A Letter To Elon Musk, Francis Fukuyama.

"government has compensated for this understaffing by hiring legions of contractors (among which is your company, SpaceX) ... In fact, you can argue that the government is understaffed, due to relentless pressure over the decades to keep headcounts down."

It seems that FF is giving something to Musk, and then taking it away again, and repeating that thru. the text.

I am most definitely not a Fukuyama fan but it an an interesting piece.
posted by unearthed at 1:26 AM on November 14 [4 favorites]


There is reason to hope that this is not going to happen nearly as fast or as completely as talk would have it. It is still extremely, extremely bad - even if no one was deported, the hateful and racist talk about deportations would be poisonous for this country.

It's not just cost, it's logistics. I think there's a possibility that the project 2025 people are extremely organized and really do have immediate plans that will roll out smoothly, but bear in mind how difficult it has been for the government to do any large project at speed - ACA rollout, for instance, and that was done by relatively intelligent people who were relatively uninterested in grift.

I think it's easy to imagine that terrible people are really slick, and that they will all be tightly organized, pulling together to do horrible things just because they all share values. They like to think of themselves this way, and there are historical moments where things do work like that.

But mass deportations on a national scale require coordination across many, many, many jurisdictions. Even if cops want to help, most police forces are not going to be unambiguously "this is our 24-7 project" - some of them have other things to do, some are too lazy. And there are countless ways to slow-roll these projects, either because you don't like them or because you're milking them for overtime. Note that it is failures of service that are the big problem in the US - the post office doesn't have enough people or offer enough services, we staff up on cops and yet everyone knows that they don't solve most crimes or even most murders, etc.

Also, hiring is difficult. No matter how you streamline it, hiring and training people takes time and there's a limited pool when you're talking about needing to hire and train a huge number of people. And procurement! Remember that historically firing government workers to "streamline" has just meant more slow-downs and expenses in dealing with contractors - there too is a form of grift.

And bear in mind that these people are grifters who don't like each other. The air is going to be blue with people knifing each other in the back over money and power. Private prison corporations are grifter corporations - certainly among the worst kind of grift, but the whole point is to milk government money. Building and staffing the prisons is going to be more important than filling them when the money actually starts flowing, particularly building them.

And then think of this - you're some Republican louse in Congress and you beat the MAGA drum all day, but your wealthiest constituents don't actually want to lose their workforce. How do you square that circle? You face frequent elections and Joe Rich-Guy from your district loves the racist talk but also has to get the chicken processed or whatever.

On the ground, there's going to be a lot of conflicting interests.

This means that there will probably be all kinds of local ways to slow these projects down. The Republicans have the caught-the-car problem - sure, they can start all these projects, but they own these projects. It's not that the great heart of the American people will reject them (ha) it's that local and national rivalries and turf wars and all kinds of things are going to come into play.

There is no cause for optimism at all, but these people have not magically solved all problems of local rivalry and conflict just by being evil.
posted by Frowner at 1:30 AM on November 14 [65 favorites]


The Nazi camps started out as work camps for jews in the early thirties, but political prisoners of all sorts went in, and never came out. When they became overcrowded and too expensive a few years later, that's when The Conversation happened and they became death camps.

There will be no one taking minutes at the next Conversation. History, or whatever may be left if it after they scrub it, will never know it happened.

It will take them a few months to purge leaders at all levels and establish their power base, then the Qanon arrests will start. A massive media campaign involving fake evidence will guarantee public support.

Resistance in occupied France was extremely dangerous, and relatively ineffective, but was possible because the fascists were widely disliked foreign occupiers. If a member of the public witnessed a covert resistance action in progress they were more likely keep quiet.

Resistance in Germany, on the other hand, was simply impossible. They were all killed.
posted by CynicalKnight at 2:08 AM on November 14 [30 favorites]


A small (but welcome)smile. (SLBlueSky)
posted by Paul Slade at 3:05 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


He will have learned the difficulty in taking quick action for anything subject to legal challenge and

Well, if the “he” in that sentence refers to white supremacist Stephen Miller, not Trump personally.
posted by eviemath at 4:26 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


CynicalKnight: Resistance in Germany, on the other hand, was simply impossible. They were all killed.

I read Defying Hitler by Gordon Thomas a few years back and what struck me was how utterly futile resistance was once the Nazis managed to capture every level of government and facet of life in Germany. For years, the Scholl resistance cell were painted as Russian collaborators, taking the words of the Nazi court at face value, until post-war investigators really looked into their case.
posted by dr_dank at 4:32 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


Agreed with all above, especially Blast Hardcheese, pompomtom, Frowner and CynicalKnight, and definitely kudos to rambling wanderlust for the post. A much needed conversation.

The result of all of this is going to be chaotic violence and fear. I doubt they will much honor any legal hurdles -- I can easily see some kind of stay from a federal judge just ignored, for example. And while all of the inherent human stumbling blocks noted by Frowner will certainly apply to effective action at scale, I do expect many rural police departments to enthusiastically start arresting people en masse fairly quickly. This might initially focus on actual undocumented immigrants, but I do not expect that distinction to hold for long. Being brown and having an accent is likely to become a very hazardous combination in many parts of the country.

I also strongly suspect there will be vigilante groups (with or without any kind of deputization from ICE) going around "rounding up" anyone they perceive as immigrants or perhaps just beating, or shooting them where they find them. I highly doubt police forces push back against this kind of brownshirt violence. I suspect the prevalence of this will be somewhat localized, but it will likely be terrifyingly championed by online propaganda and could even break through to outlets like FOX News. Genocidal campaigns fueled by online media in other parts of the world are probably quite instructive here.

It's all giant can of nightmare fuel, and I don't think the average citizen has thought about it at all. I know that at my office, in a company that has many immigrants employed at the warehouse level or as drivers, in a sector of the economy (produce/agriculture) that is highly reliant on not just immigrant labor but especially undocumented migrant labor, there have been ZERO open discussions about what we are about to deal with.

I also think there will be a lot of bribes at the local level to prevent large scale roundups. The idea that anyone is raiding a Tyson Chicken plant in a southern town owned by Tyson Chicken is just laughable. But there will be more de facto, and even de jure slavery that starts happening. As sometime noted above, slavery is still quite legal in the context of prison labor. I can easily see raids happening where people are detained one day and sent straight back to work the next, but this time with no pay and even fewer rights.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 4:41 AM on November 14 [19 favorites]


I think Frowner has a point. What I do expect to happen, though, given the scale of their ambitions but difficulty level of the planned task and general uncaring and incompetence of the planners, is that people will absolutely be rounded up into camps, including US citizens (not just recent immigrant citizens, but brown people whose families have been in the US). In some ways that’s the easy part. It’s the ensuring the camps have appropriate climate control, hygiene, medical staff, and food and water that are both the more difficult logistics, and the details that these white supremacist goons don’t care about. We’ve already seen that with overcrowded prisons in nominally progressive jurisdictions like California, and even more so at ICE detention centers (especially the quick-build ones from Trump’s last term that were essentially just big open air pens near the Southern border, with some tarps over portions of the pen). Ramping up immigration detention has led to deteriorating detention conditions every time it has happened in the past, and it doesn’t even take an increase in detention on the scale threatened to cause pretty massive harms.

So anyway, definitely educate ourselves on the available points where wrenches can be thrown in the wheels. And while it’s easy for me to say from up here in Canada (plus those of you in the US shouldn’t discuss any plans to commit morally imperative but illegal acts in writing), probably organizing and training for de-arresting operations would be a good idea. I wouldn’t advocate or urge anyone to do anything illegal in my jurisdiction, of course, so it’d be a real pity (and perhaps unrealistically cinematic) if some group of hackers or moles set up an intelligence operation that could monitor and give early warning of any planned immigration raids.

I note that cases of relatively successful resistance to Nazis (eg. in countries they invaded) were often organized through labor unions. I expect unions will also be a critically important tool in the coming years, even as the incoming administration will want to take thing as far back toward the late 1800s when labor unions were outright illegal as they are able to.
posted by eviemath at 4:48 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


I also think there will be a lot of bribes at the local level to prevent large scale roundups. The idea that anyone is raiding a Tyson Chicken plant in a southern town owned by Tyson Chicken is just laughable.

Or, as has seemed to somehow mysteriously happen in the past, raids will be on a small enough scale not to impact Tyson’s bottom line, yet coincidentally timed to labor unrest.
posted by eviemath at 4:49 AM on November 14 [5 favorites]


As the old bumper sticker had it: U.S. out of North America!
posted by chavenet at 4:51 AM on November 14 [5 favorites]


Came in to write....basically what Frowner said. "Ability to execute" is the phrase that comes to my mind.

The list of breathlessly incompetent people who have been named for White House jobs in the last week shows a direction towards degradation and rot in upper government. That's bad, possibly very bad, but it's a different kind of bad than "Nazi efficiency".

I'll throw in a quote from the movie Apocalypse Now:

"Are my methods unsound?"
"I don't see any method at all, sir."

The game plan, if you can call it a "plan", appears to be to attack and purge the military at the same time that the military is asked to take on a large new project in an area they haven't trained for. This is not a recipe for success, but a lot of damage could still come from the attempt.

However, I do expect that some events will be staged for political theatre, and getting caught in that more limited net is going to be grim.
posted by gimonca at 5:48 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


The list of breathlessly incompetent people
But they won't be doing the actual work. There will be a ton of contractor from Academi (Blackwater), Haliburton, Palintir, etc. willing to take government cash to do the dirty work.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:57 AM on November 14 [12 favorites]


I am curious about one sector of American life in this topic: education.

I don't mean in the sense of teaching people about immigration or researching the topic, but in terms of the institutions and people right now.

How will students, faculty, staff react to, say, an ICE action on campus?
How might IT and other administrative staff respond to requests for immigration status data on their population?
How many academics will join the nearby community to protected people when ICE sweeps through?
If deportation or other enforcement actions occur on campus, will anyone from the surrounding community join the academics to protect the undocumented?

And how far will Trump escalate things in the face of telegenic academic resistance? We might anticipate another Kent/Jackson State level incident. (I hope I'm wrong on this)
posted by doctornemo at 5:57 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


Different point: I wanted to raise the opportunities for corruption and abuse of the process.

Think, for example, of contractors bilking the feds and local authorities. "Sure, we surveyed this county for illegals. Here's our bill" - and they did nothing. Etc.

My wife was also struck by the chance of individual abuse. Imagine a person who's always hated the Ortegas down the block. They aren't undocumented, as far as she knows, but she can still give the feds a tip to mess with them. Another person owns a restaurant and despises the competitor across the way. He suspects they hire undocumented staff, and so sics ICE on them several times to just trash their operations for days. How many people will be victimized by this?
posted by doctornemo at 6:02 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


"telegenic academic resistance"?

I'm an academic. Look what just happened in our country. Gleefully stupid people gleefully voted for stupid. Having some academic getting the hell beat out of them for loudly protesting this would only make the program more popular.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:03 AM on November 14 [19 favorites]


Obviously the country cannot support, say, a billion people. There's simply not enough infrastructure or, more to the point, water, to carry a population of X.

So the question becomes, in figuring inflow or outflow, what's a realistic number? Some say less than zero (recall that Obama deported more people than Trump did), some place no limits.

I don't have an answer, but it's a question that should be asked.
posted by BWA at 6:04 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


^^ Asking it here might not be that productive. You're going to get a bunch of people who are going to argue that there shouldn't be borders at all, and at that point, you might as well just walk away.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:05 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


So the question becomes, in figuring inflow or outflow, what's a realistic number?

are you seriously what if-ing fascism right now?
posted by kokaku at 6:15 AM on November 14 [17 favorites]


Will there be camps? Yes. Will there be deportations? Yes. Will it be on a massive scale? Doesn't have to be.

Images of camps and deportations will circulate, news articles and blog posts about the cruel treatment of detainees will circulate, and the administration can make up whatever numbers they want in order to fulfill campaign promises / quotas.

The threat of getting rounded up will be enough to terrorize large parts of the population, and the loud presence of this racist detention apparatus will stir suspicion and create further racial divisions. More folks will politely become white supremacists, even those who are not white, because they want to be on the side of the winners, not the people in cages.

The media's role in this transformation will be to dutifully report on upturned communities, inhumane conditions, etc. at first, then move on to covering the soap opera of bureaucratic details like who is running the operation and what they wore at some gala event. The class of outraged people will continue to fight but will be exhausted, and terrorized themselves by the same apparatus.

As long as enough people are scared enough to fall in line, this whole thing can be done cheaply, poorly, and slowly.
posted by swift at 6:20 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


outgrown_hobnail, I'm also an academic, and one who studies higher ed. Hello.

I wrote "telegenic" because Trump's primary method of engagement with the world is tv. I suspect if written reports of academic resistance occur, he won't learn of them. But if a story hits Fox News, then he cuts loose.

Having some academic getting the hell beat out of them for loudly protesting this would only make the program more popular.
Good point. That process might occur. I can imagine the university where I teach, which recently got some attention for hosting supportive spaces for terrified students, would be a popular site for that kind of thing. Kicking the libs is a riot.
posted by doctornemo at 6:20 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


I do expect many rural police departments to enthusiastically start arresting people en masse fairly quickly.

I do get the temptation to hit on rural PDs, but a lot of those communities have large employers who use immigrant labor, especially in farming communities. And those immigrants help keep local businesses alive. I would suspect rural PDs might wait until the feds (or the state) "force" them to assist in the round-ups.

City PDs, though, have the manpower, para-military training, and equipment (as well as a well-documented eagerness to perform home invasions, kick heads, etc.) to fairly easily and quickly roll-through selected neighborhoods with nary a peep from the broader populace.

Once the broader population sees how violent and extreme the operations are, I suspect a blanket of silence will fall over the land.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:21 AM on November 14 [4 favorites]


but it's a question that should be asked

read rhe room
posted by kokaku at 6:21 AM on November 14 [10 favorites]


The US could support a population of a billion, and build the infrastructure to do it. Immigrants are a net positive if you support them properly. We desperately need more migration as our work force is rapidly aging.
posted by constraint at 6:27 AM on November 14 [17 favorites]


Well yes, I like to think that in the last instance "how many people should we expel and what populations should be reduced, plus how can we beef up the border to assist in this" is still not a question that can be asked productively here. These are people. They have to go somewhere. It's easy for people who've always enjoyed unquestioned and high-prestige citizenship to just ask questions about our "carrying capacity" or whatever.

Also, I have not yet noticed the US turning into some kind of carefully calibrated eco-utopia where we can't have more people. All that's going to happen is "but our water" is going to be used to brutalize and expel the inconvenient, while the rich hoard all the water, etc.

~~
But what I really wanted to say was that the US isn't Nazi Germany. Germany is half the size of Texas. It is very densely settled. Its borders are with other small densely settled countries. When Hitler rose to power, Germany was full of disaffected former soldiers and in the middle of a series of financial crises much worse than the financial crises we've faced in the US.

The US is very large. Our economy may be crap for the average person (I'd need another $10,000 a year for my pay to have kept up with inflation since 2016, and I'm in a dramatically more responsible job) but we simply aren't facing Weimar levels of crisis. Lots of people have guns, yes, but we don't have the same percentage of ex-soldiers who fought in an active and devastating war which they lost.

What this means is grifters. There are certainly ideologues and fascists and scary Peter Thiel types, but there's a thick layer of grifters in this, including Trump. These are people who see government initiatives primarily as an opportunity to rook the government, and see other people primarily as rivals for those sweet government dollars. The grifters are going to gum up the machine at every step. The good thing about them is that they can be bought off with money. An ideologue wants to enact his will, a grifter is just as happy pretending to enact his will as long as he collects payment.

The game plan, if you can call it a "plan", appears to be to attack and purge the military at the same time that the military is asked to take on a large new project in an area they haven't trained for. This is not a recipe for success, but a lot of damage could still come from the attempt.

All I'm saying is that if I were going to attack and purge the military by getting attack-and-purge recs, I would not have nominated a Fox News guy to be in charge, because at least some people are going to close ranks and say that their people are their people rather than racing to purge. A conservative from within the military would be a much, much better choice. These are big bureaucracies with a lot of internal interests. I'm not saying that it can't happen but at least they made a bad pick to be in charge.
posted by Frowner at 6:29 AM on November 14 [19 favorites]


"What this means is grifters" - yup.
posted by doctornemo at 6:33 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


Face meet leopard ... the people who voted for Trump are going to get what they unreservedly deserve, none of it good.

The people who didn't vote for Trump will be prosecuted if they aren't rich enough.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 6:34 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


read rhe room

MetaFilter for "shut up."
posted by doctornemo at 6:38 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


I think the Gaetz appointment to Attorney General should be scaring people more?

Sure he's incompetent, he's also deeply compromised by a very legit investigation into his own sex crimes. If he kicks up a fuss over being a signature machine for the orders of more competent and evil people, Stephen Miller (or someone similar) is going to tell him that he can sign things he hasn't read or go on very public trial for pedophilia.

Rinse and repeat that for everyone being appointed to a position who has legal baggage.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:42 AM on November 14 [9 favorites]


Obviously the country cannot support, say, a billion people. There's simply not enough infrastructure or, more to the point, water, to carry a population of X.
...
I don't have an answer, but it's a question that should be asked.


If we were to stack 'em into mile-high arcologies like in SimCity2000, and use our limitless free energy from cold fusion reactors to desalinate the oceans, we could support a HUNDRED billion people.

Sure, I hear you say, that might not be possible with existing technology, and even if it were possible it would cost a quadrillion dollars. The point is we COULD. It's certainly no stupider or less realistic a goal than getting from the ~97% compliance we currently have with immigration laws, up to 100%. The costs of the two plans are approximately the same. And at least my insane plan gets us some cool research along the way.
posted by Mayor West at 6:56 AM on November 14 [5 favorites]


I think the Gaetz appointment to Attorney General should be scaring people more?

It's hard to focus on what to be scared of at any given second. I mean, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Some FoxNews host I never heard of as secretary of defense? It's all starting to make Idiocracy look like a somber melodrama.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:08 AM on November 14 [7 favorites]


Came in to write....basically what Frowner said. "Ability to execute" is the phrase that comes to my mind.

It also rides on the idea that there are 10-20million 'illegal immigrants' in the US, but there are not. There are maybe 10million people who are undocumented, meaning they don't have their documentation in their hands without going to some government office to get it. Some percent of those are 'illegal', but it's not the full 10million.

I predict this is going to deport people, yes, but at scale? No it's just a grift, just like aliens spacecraft crash clean up crew. They will get a bucket of money, and mostly just stare at the border.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:32 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


I don't have an answer, but it's a question that should be asked.

This is a stupid question for the reason that people have mentioned. The majority of the US is empty, it has like 20 domestic blocks that are as populous per sq mile as Paris France. The majority of US cities are at 3000 people per sq mile. The US could handle a lot more people.

If you want to get more obvious, the population of India is 1.4 billion, the US about 330million, and the US is 3X larger in area. So if you want a hard number, there you go.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:39 AM on November 14 [7 favorites]


A lot of these shitty plans are going to get stalled or blocked, not because stalling/blocking them is the right thing to do, but because those plans are going to interfere with the grift of other powerful grifters.

I submit to you that the reason some of these cabinet picks are so awful is that literally nobody else both will be slavishly loyal and also wants to work for TFG.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:00 AM on November 14 [5 favorites]


A lot of the comments here are worrisome.

It reminds me how leading up to the election I'd comment that I think Trump is going to win, with Harris at best maybe barely pulling ahead, to be met with comments full of fantasies about the coming Blue Wave or how the polls were actually all secretly off.

It's why I find these recent "hope" posts on MeFi kind of poisonous. Do what you need to do to keep going, sure, but you have to be grounded in reality. Hope doesn't mean delusion and telling yourself that Trump et al. are too incompetent to do what they say they're going to do or that they don't really mean it or it's just a grift or the like seems dangerous. You should probably work from the assumption that they mean what they say and will try their best to make it happen. At worst you'll be pleasantly surprised if that turns out to be wrong.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:42 AM on November 14 [37 favorites]


You should probably work from the assumption that they mean what they say and will try their best to make it happen.

I agree. Even if we assume Trump & Co won't be able to enact Project 2025's programme in full, whatever parts they do get into law will be quite bad enough.
posted by Paul Slade at 9:03 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


You all should have voted for me for President. I’d run this like a business, meaning that people in minority neighborhoods and people at the border would get NPS (Net Promoter Score) questions like:

How likely are you to recommend your immigration experience to a friend?
How likely are you to commend the police in your neighborhood for doing a good job?

Use that metric (1-10 scale) to judge the relevant organizations. If scores go down, heads roll. That’s how we do it in the corporate world! I think of immigrants as CUSTOMERS.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:36 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


So the question becomes, in figuring inflow or outflow, what's a realistic number?

My response to this was in violation of Metafilter's guidelines so I saved the mods some trouble and deleted it.
posted by straight at 9:53 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


I do truly think that the general ineptitude and grift of many of the appointed and hired hands will have an effect. The chaos will cut both ways, enabling some extreme actions and making other things more difficult to pull off. It's safe to say that we're going to see a real world Gish Gallop, an onslaught of terrible events, incompetence that makes Scaramucci seem like a genius and eye opening grift that will make it impossible to keep track of all that is going on, greater than what happened during the first administration.

At the same time it just takes some well placed, competent professionals to push things hard in the directions they have been waiting for years to happen. Look at how a wannabe farmer ended up becoming one of the most notorious persons in history, partially enabled by a number of competent staff beneath him. If it was just Trump, and maybe Miller, I'd be a lot less concerned. But it is clear to me that there is a lot going on in preparation for this, and the true believers have been salivating at this opportunity for years now.

It looks like we are potentially on the cusp of a societal transformation similar to the first 100 days of Nazi Germany, I recommend "In the Garden of Beasts" for an outsider's perspective of the first year. Already we can see the first glimmers of the public sliding towards "Well if it is only 5 million rounded up, then it isn't really that bad..."

I recall someone here on Me-Fi writing at the beginning of the first Trump administration, that you should write down what you believe now to see how much you've been changed afterwards. I've often thought about that mental exercise in the years since.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 9:58 AM on November 14 [14 favorites]


I guess this won't be new info to most here but it's essential to know that the "final solution" to the ".*-ish problem" of Nazi Germany started with encouraging emigration, deportation, etc well before slave camps and death camps.
posted by jclarkin at 10:08 AM on November 14 [6 favorites]


I think there’s a reasonable chance that what they’re really preparing to do is round up and disappear political enemies specifically, and the immigrant stuff is just cover. Maybe the lack of a plan for handling 10 million prisoners is because that isn’t even the plan.
posted by notoriety public at 10:13 AM on November 14 [3 favorites]


Building and staffing the prisons is going to be more important than filling them when the money actually starts flowing, particularly building them.
We have spent the last 10 years reducing the prison population and closing down private prisons. They have plenty of unused infrastructure to call on. More challenging is the hiring of prison personnel, but even there, the private prisons can usually outmatch local wages in the remote rural locations that many of them set up in. I think the logistics of creating camps is more easily accomplished than the logistics of actually moving large numbers of deportees to borders and having them be accepted at those borders.

We had huge challenges relocating Guantanamo detainees to foreign countries because many did not want their people back and we had to make deals with other countries to take them. If Stephen Miller, et. al, think that they can just dump people into a foreign country, I think they are playing a much more dangerous and destabilizing game than they think they are. Trump's people tend to think that all other countries are backwaters that have no capabilities of resistance or retaliation. While they may be no match for the US Armed Forces, there are other ways to retaliate against the US.

Alabama, Wisconsin, and Georgia have all tried to legislate crackdowns on undocumented workers, particularly in agriculture, and all have failed due to the inability to find US citizens willing to perform the difficult labor of harvesting fields. Many of those laws were successfully challenged to the point that the States involved chose not to enforce them, but the self-deportation of immigrant laborers decimated parts of their agriculture for at least 2 years following the implementation of the laws. We may see massive self-deportation take place alongside the indiscriminate detention of immigrants that Trump, Miller, and others envision, and that will have economic impacts that most likely haven't been accounted for at all.

I believe that while many undocumented workers are removed from agriculture, those in the detention camps may well be put to use filling the same roles they were just removed from, but without compensation and without the protections hard won for field workers. If people are scared the price of tomatoes (let alone the price of eggs, pork, and chicken) will increase, there will be a ready workforce of already skilled workers to put in the fields to address those issues. And it will be justified along the lines of covering the costs of housing and feeding detained people. The whole thing is a disgusting mess of grifting, hate towards immigrants, and the idea of punishing those who we decide are outsiders.
posted by drossdragon at 10:17 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


There's a difference between saying, "yes, this is very bad" and assuming that our enemies are extremely organized and unified and that they will be able to overcome material obstacles that have delayed or stymied all others. Assuming that we're facing a bunch of unstoppable super-Hitlers is playing into their hands - they'd like us to think that they are unstoppable super-Hitlers because then people will despair and roll over.

If people really believe that we're going to see the first hundred days of Nazi Germany starting in January, I strongly, strongly urge you to make whatever immediate preparations that suggests to you. The worst of both worlds would be to believe that January 20 starts the Reich and just sit at your desk in fear until then.

The material conditions in the United States right now and the vested interests of the actors in this are very, very different from those of, eg, the Nazis, the Chinese government operating in the Uygur Autonomous Region, etc. This means that what is going to happen isn't going to be what happened there/then.

Around the internet, I feel like I see a lot of people hypnotizing themselves into fear and despair by telling themselves the unstoppable super-Hitler story. Again, I strongly urge folks to act - act now, act on your beliefs. Whatever you think is coming, act with appropriate intensity. (But, god knows, don't talk about anything relevant on the internet.)
posted by Frowner at 10:27 AM on November 14 [23 favorites]


they'd like us to think that they are unstoppable super-Hitlers because then people will despair and roll over.

It does honestly feel like this is our Brexit phase, rather than our Nazi phase.
posted by mittens at 10:40 AM on November 14 [9 favorites]


> All I'm saying is that if I were going to attack and purge the military by getting attack-and-purge recs, I would not have nominated a Fox News guy to be in charge, because at least some people are going to close ranks and say that their people are their people rather than racing to purge.

Trump's Team Drawing up List of Pentagon Officers to Fire, Sources Say - "The second source said the incoming administration would likely focus on U.S. military officers seen as connected to Mark Milley, Trump's former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."
Milley was quoted in the book "War" by Bob Woodward, which was published last month, calling Trump "fascist to the core" and Trump's allies have targeted him for perceived disloyalty to the former president.

"Every single person that was elevated and appointed by Milley will be gone," the second source said.

"There's a very detailed list of everybody that was affiliated with Milley. And they will all be gone."

The Joint Chiefs of Staff include the highest ranking officers in the U.S. military and comprise the heads of the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, National Guard and Space Force...

The first source familiar with the transition planning said [Air Force General C.Q.] Brown would be among the many officers to leave.

"The chiefs of the Joint Chiefs and all the vice chiefs will be fired immediately," the source said, before noting that this was still only early planning.

Some current and former U.S. officials have played down the possibility of such a major shakeup, saying it would be unnecessary and disruptive at a time of global turmoil with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The first source said that it would be difficult bureaucratically to fire and replace a large swath of senior U.S. military officials, suggesting the planning could be bluster and posturing by Trump allies.

But the second source suggested the Trump camp believed the Joint Chiefs of Staff needed to shrink due to perceived bureaucratic over-reach.
he just wants to look good on tv?
In Choosing His Team, Trump Opts for Personal Ties and TV Chops - "A Trump donor said the president-elect and his allies have huddled in a room with TVs and pictures of prospective appointees. 'I hear Trump is watching a lot of TV clips,' the donor said, 'looking at: How will these people defend me on TV?'"

> And then think of this - you're some Republican louse in Congress and you beat the MAGA drum all day, but your wealthiest constituents don't actually want to lose their workforce. How do you square that circle? You face frequent elections and Joe Rich-Guy from your district loves the racist talk but also has to get the chicken processed or whatever.

What 'Farmers for Trump' Say About Another Trade War - "The issue of tariffs looms large ahead of Election Day, but so do worries about border security and immigration."
Matott supports Trump for reasons beyond farming—immigration, law and order, and social issues—and is pretty sure his farm can weather whatever Trump stirs up... plenty of rural voters in this swing state and throughout the Midwest are still backing the former president, often citing broader issues, such as border security and illegal immigration.

[...]

While the agricultural community relies heavily on migrant workers, many farmers, like other conservative voters, express a rising sense of alarm over chaotic scenes from the southern border. Others are focusing on different ways in which they feel a Trump administration would be better for farmers. Dwight Mogler, a hog farmer in Iowa, said he and other hog farmers are deeply concerned about a possible trade war with Mexico, which has become the biggest buyer of American pork as China has trimmed its purchases. But Mogler said he is voting for Trump because he feels the former president would be more supportive to farming overall and less likely to overregulate.
speaking of grifting oligarchs...
Trump Victory Leaves U.S. Farmers With Questions - "Domestically, what's top of mind for many farmers and traders alike is how the new administration, along with an expected Republican Congress, will handle a new Farm Bill. The Farm Bill is a comprehensive batch of legislation dating back more than 100 years, that is typically reworked and passed by Congress every five to six years. It contains a multitude of programs beneficial for farmers, including terms for crop insurance. However, no new Farm Bill has been passed since 2018, with Congress in a deadlock on it. The bill expired this year on Sept. 30 following a one-year extension from President Biden signed last year, with no new bill put in place." (Why Austin Frerick Is Taking On The Grocery Barons: "we need to abolish the Farm Bill."*)

and expedited deregulation...
Under Trump, US government legal stance poised to shift at Supreme Court - "After Trump succeeds Democrat Joe Biden on Jan. 20, other big cases in which the new administration could change positions include ones involving the largely untraceable firearms called 'ghost guns,' nuclear waste storage, flavored vape products and securities fraud, according to legal experts."

> I think the Gaetz appointment to Attorney General should be scaring people more?

help us moderate republicans, you're our only hope...
-Republican Senator Cornyn 'absolutely' wants to see Matt Gaetz ethics report
-Senate Will Block Trump's Gaetz Nomination, McCarthy Says

also btw...
Listen to Children Who've Just Been Separated From Their Parents at the Border - "ProPublica has obtained audio from inside a U.S. Customs and Border Protection facility, in which children can be heard wailing as an agent jokes, 'We have an orchestra here.'" (yt)
posted by kliuless at 11:16 AM on November 14 [4 favorites]


when someone shows you who they are, believe them...
Kamala Harris: "while Donald Trump was president, he said he wanted generals like Adolf Hitler had. Donald Trump said that because he does not want a military that is loyal to the United States Constitution. He wants a military that is loyal to him. He wants a military who will be loyal to him personally, one that will obey his orders even when he tells them to break the law or abandon their oath to the Constitution of the United States."
posted by kliuless at 11:34 AM on November 14 [9 favorites]


They don't need to deport anyone for this to accomplish all sorts of evil goals. I haven't seen mentioned yet Executive Order 9066, nor the Alien and Sedition Acts. As mentioned, the Private Prison Industry is already in the business of ICE detention and likely salivating at more sweet government cash. It'll be grift all the way down and bring on suffering and a whole new form of prisoner exploitation. One Executive Order and we're on our way, but I suspect it'll be like the Underwear Gnomes with only a step 1: Lock Them Up.
posted by achrise at 11:35 AM on November 14 [2 favorites]


The Senate immune system seems to be adding Gaetz. They know it will be a new scandal a week if he's in office. (They should know, he's showed them the pictures.)

While the "who is worst" could become a popular parlor game, Hegseth seems most worrying. Crusader wannabe, wants women out of the military, out for revenge, ...
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:38 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


Resistance in Germany, on the other hand, was simply impossible. They were all killed.

This isn't 100% accurate, though the thrust is reasonable.

My grandfather survived the Nazis, though just barely: he was part of the Hamburg resistance, which ultimately got him arrested and imprisoned in Neuengamme, where he spent the last two years of the war. They certainly tried to kill him, loading him and thousands of other prisoners onto ships and sending them out for RAF pilots to sink. Which they did, and nearly everyone died, but my grandfather was lucky and was able to swim to shore.

And ultimately he died at age 43 of a heart attack, which was generally attributed to the effects of being in the camp, so arguably the Nazis did kill him. (My grandmother, meanwhile, spent the war hiding banned books and lying to the Gestapo and likely survived only because, as she learned years later, one of the Gestapo officers in Hamburg was originally from the same small town as her and remembered her and would move her file to the bottom of the stack when it reached the top.)

Now, whether the German resistance was as effective or meaningful as the French is a different question - but it definitely continued throughout the war, and there were at least a couple of folks who weren't killed. I'm not really offering that as any beacon of hope or anything, but I do have an obvious personal interest in preserving the memory of the German resistance (and resisters), and so felt compelled to respond to the statement that resistance was "impossible" as it seems to suggest the Nazis succeeded in eradicating all resistance. They didn't.

And neither will these new fuckers.
posted by nickmark at 11:49 AM on November 14 [34 favorites]


I am just so, gobsmacked, might be the right word, that America did this again.

And am not handling it very well. Matt Gaetz as AG? What world are we living in?

Least the Onion bought Infowars.

Look for the helpers you all. FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT
posted by Windopaene at 11:57 AM on November 14




Obviously the country cannot support, say, a billion people. There's simply not enough infrastructure or, more to the point, water, to carry a population of X...

I don't have an answer, but it's a question that should be asked.


At the risk of taking unthoughtful questions seriously:

- yes, the United States could support a billion people. India has a billion people, China has a billion people. Bangladesh has 173 million people in a space a fraction of the size of the US - and they are losing land directly because of the consumption patterns of rich, low-density countries like the US.

- would it strain the infrastructure, water, etc.? Yes, yes it would - I mean, not as much as the infrastructure in other countries has already been strained, and economies and cultures have been wrecked thanks to colonialism, which is why people want to immigrate in the first place.

There are no borders for capital or for commerce. Borders are just for labour. We keep labour locked into poverty elsewhere, and we let just enough people come in undocumented so that we can abuse them as cheap, unprotected labour on our farms, in our factories. All of us who live in rich countries - we stay fat off the labour of people in/from poorer countries.

Certainly, people who work in a country should have an inalienable human right to live, vote and benefit from being there.

As for the right to move to any country: if you're a white person in North America, you have already benefited from unrestricted immigration against the wishes of the owners of the land (indigenous Americans). If you object to people moving to "your" country, maybe we should adopt a "first-in, first-out" policy on North American immigration and send home all the Anglo-Scots-Irish whose ancestors first invaded (including me). There are a lot of us and we're among some of the richest people, so us leaving would really help relieve the drain on resources. I call dibs on living in Tower Bridge.
posted by jb at 1:35 PM on November 14 [11 favorites]


Reminder that urls aren’t automatically turned into links, but can easily be made linkable (thus contributing to site accessibility) by using the “link” button in the quick-access edit buttons immediately below the comment input window. (The link button is the one on the far right of the row of buttons just under the comment box.) Linking urls properly ourselves saves mod time for actual site moderation, too!
posted by eviemath at 2:20 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]


There is a ton of "empty America". Been through Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, the Dakota's recently?

But, there's not much reason to be there, like jobs and things.
posted by Windopaene at 2:23 PM on November 14


General Strike? Great idea except where Shitegibbon-in-Chief does a Pol Pot on "the enemy within".

OTOH, wouldn't have to wake up screaming in horror every morning ... so there's that.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 2:27 PM on November 14


A guideline:
During the Pinochet dictatorship resistance was a network of small groups working to undermine the regime. Under the radar they were the backbone of nonviolent resistance, tackling oppression one neighborhood, one strike, one song at a time.
posted by adamvasco at 4:07 PM on November 14 [8 favorites]


I think there’s a reasonable chance that what they’re really preparing to do is round up and disappear political enemies specifically, and the immigrant stuff is just cover. Maybe the lack of a plan for handling 10 million prisoners is because that isn’t even the plan.
posted by notoriety public


Pay attention to this, people.

I do think the immigrant round up is going to be a very real thing, but is also going to be used to cover up other very real and equally nasty things as well.
posted by Pouteria at 4:13 PM on November 14 [8 favorites]


I do think the immigrant round up is going to be a very real thing, but is also going to be used to cover up other very real and equally nasty things as well.

Seems like I read something on the blue during TFG's first term about ICE having a jurisdiction of like 100 miles inland from any US border? If that's true, that's an awful lot of blue-state territory. I hope I'm misremembering here.
posted by Rykey at 4:29 PM on November 14 [5 favorites]


You are misremembering. Customs and Border Patrol has the 100-mile zone; ICE “enforces customs and immigration laws at the border as well as in the interior of the United States.”

Sorry if that’s maybe not super reassuring.
posted by nickmark at 4:42 PM on November 14 [7 favorites]


Clearly there is no good reason to compare the upcoming Trump administration with Nazis… Oh, wait, what is this? Something about Pete Hegseth?

Trump’s Pick to Lead U.S. Military Has Tattoos Linked to White Supremacists and Nazis
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:46 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]


My immediate thought is to ask what the plan of the Trump administration is when the economy immediately tanks?
The economy won't tank for anyone that matters to them. The economy will be going absolute gangbusters for the billionaire class. Eventually, the economic and social disasters waiting just around the corner will 'trickle up' to the billionaires, but do you really think there's any economic downturn that can hurt a billionaire in any way that matters? One of the biggest benefits of wealth is the ability to wait out bad times, at worst being left with only a few billion in the bank or solid assets. To a large degree, the national economy simply doesn't matter to billionaires. It doesn't even matter who they are or what their politics are - rich people will always stick together, no matter what.
posted by dg at 6:57 PM on November 14 [4 favorites]


My immediate thought is to ask what the plan of the Trump administration is when the economy immediately tanks?

Oddly enough my immediate thought was to come at this from the other direction. I don't think the administration and the mill-billionaire classes will feel a damn thing, but the rest of us will be drowning in 12-18 months. What scares me spitless is that the MAGAsses who believed that the Orange Shit-gibbon was going to fix everything will be increasingly upset that everything is getting shittier. Meanwhile, Trump keeps lying and foaming at the mouth, and the MAGAsses are going to keep looking for more scapegoats to sacrifice. At that point, he reveals his 'upgrades' to Project 2025, and it's a shoo-in at that point.
posted by BlueHorse at 7:21 PM on November 14 [6 favorites]


If you've read up on your Stalin, you know what happens if the economy goes pear-shaped: blame "wreckers" and "saboteurs", then hunt them down! Invent them if you have to!

People like to compare Trump to Hitler, but right now it looks to me like he's following Stalin's playbook. Go after the generals and tear down every other center of power that could challenge him. And, if history repeats, after he's decapitated the military, Russia and/or China will feel emboldened to act.
posted by SPrintF at 8:25 PM on November 14 [7 favorites]


One of the biggest benefits of wealth is the ability to wait out bad times, at worst being left with only a few billion in the bank or solid assets.

Exactly.

The rich love a good recession, even a moderate depression, every 2-3 decades. Sure, their profits will go down for a while, but they will not personally suffer, and they get the opportunity to snaffle up a bunch of very cheap distressed assets, from family homes all the way to large companies. Then they sit on them until the economy turns good again. Finally they resume the flow of profit, but with a much larger asset base, and hence more socio-political power.

Raw capitalism for the masses. Yay.

Doesn't always go to plan. If society really breaks down and the masses realise what has been done to them and figure they have nothing left to lose, then it doesn't work so well and can even end very badly for the plutocrats.

But if they were smart about it they would have stashed away a billion or ten in foreign investment and tax havens, and could easily flee to elsewhere using one of their many purchased foreign passports, to enjoy their remaining wealth and years somewhere safe and comfortable. The likes of Bezos and Musk could lose 99.99% of their wealth and still be completely secure and fabulously wealthy. They will not suffer.
posted by Pouteria at 8:41 PM on November 14 [9 favorites]


Perhaps the most stressful thing about all this is the uncertainty. Nobody knows for sure what will happen and nobody can agree on anything. There's the people saying 'this is different, there's a narrow Congress margin and filibusters and state governments etc.', and there's the people saying, 'this is Hitler or Stalin 2.0, we're so screwed and there's nothing we can do about it'.
posted by BiggerJ at 3:02 AM on November 15 [3 favorites]


Ugh, I just read the comments on the 'Central Casting' post.
posted by BiggerJ at 3:29 AM on November 15 [1 favorite]


Are minorities here in the USA good with this plan? Don't they see that we are all less safe with these plans and the bigger picture of all this?

No, we hate it, but we got outvoted.
posted by Selena777 at 9:40 AM on November 15 [9 favorites]


The American Immigration Council just published a detailed report of the budgetary and economic cost that a deportation program of this magnitude would incur on the country - let alone the tremendous suffering it would inflict on millions of human beings. The cost they calculate is actually close to $1 Trillion over ten years, just for the logistical cost of making the operation happen, not factoring in the economic decline and loss of tax revenue that the sudden absence of millions of people would lead to (which they also analyze in great detail).
posted by purple_frogs at 11:40 AM on November 15 [3 favorites]


I thought Heather Cox Richardson make an interesting prediction in her political chat this week. HCR pointed out that the red states that voted for deportation, like Texas and Florida would crash their economies if the deportations are carried out as Trump has promised. She thinks that instead, the Trump team will pick blue state sanctuary cities and "perform" deportation as a farce for Fox News then resort to some shadow performance for the red states.

It's annoying to think that Harris pointed out that Trump killed any serious congressional effort to address immigration, since it's a talking point for him. He was awfully quiet for a change when she pointed this out.

So I'll be interested to see if HCR's predictions are spot on.
posted by effluvia at 1:01 PM on November 15 [7 favorites]


Do you want to cause huge inflation?

Spend insane amounts of money deporting immigrants, and then there is no one left to actually do the shitty jobs that are about picking all the food you enjoy eating?

Fucking interesting times...
posted by Windopaene at 1:56 PM on November 15 [5 favorites]


"Makes us look like Nazis": Trump allies asked to stop talking about mass deportation "camps"
Rolling Stone reports that MAGA associates have been asked to stop using the word “camps” to describe potential facilities that would be used to house people rounded up in a massive deportation operation.
posted by achrise at 4:09 PM on November 16 [3 favorites]


Listen to Children Who've Just Been Separated From Their Parents at the Border - "ProPublica has obtained audio from inside a U.S. Customs and Border Protection facility, in which children can be heard wailing as an agent jokes, 'We have an orchestra here.'" (yt)

There is nothing in this world, no amount of money or devil's bargain stuff like fame or beauty or riches or indeed anything I can think of that could bring me to listen to such a recording. Dear god.
posted by jokeefe at 6:07 PM on November 16 [5 favorites]


Hey there "Trump allies".

Act like Nazis, some of us are going to assume you are Nazis. Lie down with dogs, we are going to assume you have fleas.

Sorry for the doomerism. But, holy shit, we are in for a bad 4+ years.
posted by Windopaene at 7:29 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]


> Dear god.

my highschool german teacher had us watch shoah (part 1, part 2), which wasn't a picnic, but made an impression. better to learn in class than personal experience... or as joshua oppenheimer says:

The Act of Killing - "A film from the point-of-view of the perpetrators, not the victims, of the 1965 killing of over 1,000,000 suspected Communists in Indonesia."
Charles Monroe-Kane: One of the most powerful moments for me in the film is this mundane moment in a car where one of the leaders of the genocide says to you: "Hey Josh, war crimes are defined by the winners. I'm a winner."

Joshua Oppenheimer: "...and I get to make my own definition..."

CMK: "And I get to make my own definition of what that means." Did they win?

JO: They won. I mean that's what the film's about. Indonesia could now have a popular movement to unseat these guys, perhaps through mobilizing, organizing in the context of the very corrupt, even criminal electoral democracy that Indonesia has today; things could change, the balance of power could change. The film has certainly provided ammunition for that fight, but nevertheless the film is a resp... the whole raison d'etre of this film, the reason I made it is because it's an expose of what happens when the killers win. And, somehow, I have this feeling that that's not the exception to the rule. Genocide, we think ok the Nazis, we think the Khmer Rouge, they were thrown out of power, there have been tribunals, there's been some form of justice, however incomplete and impartial, but I would suppose that's the exception to the rule. That perpetrators of mass political violence normally win and then normally take power. And that's why the perpetrate the violence. If every time it happened or most of the times they have their comeuppance, they wouldn't do it anymore. And then all that's unique in Indonesia perhaps is the boasting of the perpetrators. That's an allegory for the rule; a metaphor for the rule. And the reason they boast is simply, it's not just that they won -- and this is where it implicates all of us -- it's because the rest of the world, at least the western world, supported them at the time of the killings and have supported them enthusiastically ever since. And they know that. So when they meet a foreigner with a camera, they don't think this is something they should be ashamed of, they boast and they boast openly.
'The Act Of Killing' Director Joshua Oppenheimer On Indonesian Mass Killings And The Power Of Movies
I think fundamentally, I had to make a decision really on whether this was a film about the past or the present. And The Act Of Killing is a film about the present. And it’s a film about the abuse of historical narrative in the present. It’s a film about the role of an unresolved traumatic past of keeping people terrorized in the present and enabling all sorts of corruption and further evil, [like] the extortion in the marketplaces. It’s a film about the life of an unresolved traumatic past in the present. But it’s not a film about that past.

Early on, when the survivors said come back and make a film about why we’re all afraid, early on when they said that, it’s clear what they said was make a film about the contemporary condition of impunity. To make that understandable, we have to show the kind of horror that took place in a present tense manifestation…So the reenactments and the boasting of the perpetrators is one way of doing this…The fact that they can speak about this is symptomatic of why everyone is still afraid, and it serves to keep people afraid.

To make a film that goes into the details of American support, and it’s a lead I followed for some distance, would necessitate for arguing how important that support was. The U.S. provided lists of thousands of names, intellectuals, journalists, trade unionists, writers, who they wanted the I government to go after and kill…I think the real function of the American death lists was to send a strong signal to the Army to go after everybody, kill everybody, we want everybody dead. The US was providing some weapons, the us was providing some money, the us was providing radios so the army could coordinate this killing campaign across the vast archipelago…

That would be a different film. It’s research that I think people are undertaking. it’s research suddenly more people are interested in because of The The Act Of Killing... But I don’t know that as a film, even if it were exceptionally well-made, anyone would care about it. We have trouble getting people to care about what happened in Syria, let alone a Cold War military coup the U.S. was implicated in that happened 60 years ago.
The Look of Silence - "The Act Of Killing exposed the consequences for all of us when we build our everyday reality on terror and lies. The Look of Silence explores what it is like to be a survivor in such a reality... The Look of Silence, is, I hope, a poem about a silence borne of terror – a poem about the necessity of breaking that silence, but also about the trauma that comes when silence is broken. Maybe the film is a monument to silence – a reminder that although we want to move on, look away and think of other things, nothing will make whole what has been broken. Nothing will wake the dead. We must stop, acknowledge the lives destroyed, strain to listen to the silence that follows."
posted by kliuless at 8:59 AM on November 17 [8 favorites]


Watching - horrified - from across the pond, how realistic is Musks and Ramaswamy's plan to fire 50% of federal workers on day 1 on the basis of whether their SSN ends with an even or odd number?

It strikes me as being utterly unworkable - but even if they're advised they can't do this, knowing who's involved, it's more than likely that sheer hubris and ego will prevail.
posted by essexjan at 1:14 PM on November 17 [4 favorites]


kliuless-- to reply to your comment, I have seen Shoah (twice) and have read extensively about the Holocaust and WWII. There is a difference, I think, in watching or reading a work created in recollection, with the aim to both know and acknowledge, and listening to a recording of criminal events actually happening. I won't listen to a recording made of children screaming in fear and anguish any more than anyone here would want to listen to an actual recording of the arrival of a death train at Auschwitz, for example (I assume; maybe someone would?) because turning human pain into spectacle is degrading for the witness and the victims. I'm being a bit nitpicky, because your comment is interesting and the quotes valuable, but you may have misread mine.
posted by jokeefe at 3:43 PM on November 17 [2 favorites]


Watching - horrified - from across the pond, how realistic is Musks and Ramaswamy's plan to fire 50% of federal workers on day 1 on the basis of whether their SSN ends with an even or odd number?
For all the horribleness this idea represents, it's as good bad a way as any to reduce the workforce by half immediately. Obviously, any attempt to do so on the basis of merit or any measure with at least a sniff of legitimacy would be immediately bogged down in the mire of bureaucracy the public service is so good at when it wants to be. So, if you're going to arbitrarily slash and burn, this method is at least free from any taint of discrimination. This is another sign that at least some of the lessons from the 2016 administration have been learned.

If I were in charge and had a mind to give the public service such a drastic haircut (both of these having odds of zero), I would be more inclined to do a 'spill and fill' - sack everyone and allow applications for a reduced number of positions, with at most a token nod to recruitment based on merit (you've already thrown any kind of decency to the wolves, so what the hell). Not only would you get the reduction you want, but you'd also have a chance to shape the agency in the image you want and that change would be close to permanent.
posted by dg at 7:30 PM on November 17 [1 favorite]


Because you, like me, might be interested in the statistical distribution of the last digit of SSNs, here's a paper with a Table and Chart of just that. The last group is a "serial number" but "0000" is not used. You'd think that would mean that there are more odds than evens but it's complicated.
posted by achrise at 6:33 AM on November 18 [2 favorites]


Donald Trump Backs 'National Emergency' Plan For Deportations
Writing on his Truth Social platform, the President-elect responded to reports that he was considering the move in order to secure the use of military resources in carrying out deportations of foreign criminals who have entered the country illegally.
...
Trump has previously warned that he will deploy the National Guard, as well as government agencies, to carry out his proposed deportation policy. However there are questions over the legal limits on military involvement in domestic law enforcement.
...
Trump has also said he will use the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, which empowers the president to deport foreign nationals deemed hostile to the United States, to expedite the removal of known gang or cartel members.

"I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil," Trump said at a rally on November 4.

Trump's plan to combat cartel activity and curb illegal migration involves reintroducing his previous border enforcement policies, enlisting full military support to stop trafficking, including a naval blockade, and deploying Special Forces and cyber tools against cartels.

He supports classifying cartels as terrorist organizations to cut off their financial resources globally and has urged Congress to pass laws that would impose the death penalty on drug traffickers.

Trump previously said he would "make appropriate use of Special Forces, cyber warfare, and other overt and covert actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations."

The future president previously told NBC News his promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants carries no specific "price tag."

"It's not a question of a price tag," Trump told NBC.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:55 AM on November 18 [3 favorites]


So he will be forcing the SC to get on record stating they're fine with this interpretation of the law.
posted by Selena777 at 1:25 PM on November 18


I mean, I wouldn't say he'd be forcing them....
posted by Rykey at 3:34 PM on November 18 [4 favorites]


> There is a difference, I think, in watching or reading a work created in recollection, with the aim to both know and acknowledge, and listening to a recording of criminal events actually happening.

thanks for clarifying. i appreciate your acknowledgement that one shouldn't look away from atrocities, but i guess i'd push back on the point that records of criminal events are "spectacle" per se. video of george floyd's murder was also shocking evidence of (usually hidden, but prevalent) racist police brutality. while the officers involved were "degrading for the witness and the victims," i don't see how documenting it is.

or consider the intentions of those documenting the holocaust: German Concentration Camps Factual Survey (BFI Q&A)
In the spring of 1945, the Ministry of Information in London was instructed to make a film for Allied command, documenting the Nazi atrocities being discovered as Europe was liberated. Producer Sidney Bernstein recruited a brilliant team to work on the production, including the editors Stuart McCallister and Peter Tanner, and writers Colin Wills and Richard Crossman. The film was crafted from footage taken by British, American and Soviet military cameramen. Shocked and angered, they used their cameras to condemn the perpetrators, filming the victims of atrocities in close detail and producing a comprehensive record of the suffering of survivors. The footage was first screened in London at the Ministry of Information and was seen as damning proof of the criminality of the Nazi regime. When completed the film was to be shown in German cinemas and to German prisoners of war. Its purpose was to counter any lingering support for the Nazis and to make people aware of their shared responsibility for the crimes committed in their name. Sidney Bernstein hoped to create a lasting and irrefutable record to challenge any attempts to deny what had taken place.
as the doc notes: "Unless the world learns the lesson these pictures teach, night will fall."

bringing this back on topic to today, and to echo rambling wanderlust...
Trump confirms he will utilize US military to conduct mass deportations - "Trump and Miller have described plans to federalize state national guard personnel and deploy them for immigration enforcement, including sending troops from friendly Republican-governed states into neighboring states with governors who decline to participate. Miller has also advocated for building large-scale detention 'camps' and tents." (How Trump's plan for mass deportations fits into U.S. history)
posted by kliuless at 5:05 AM on November 19 [3 favorites]


« Older returning to earth   |   Who was Grampa Pettibone Newer »


You are not currently logged in. Log in or create a new account to post comments.